FXUS65 KBOU 180954 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 354 AM MDT THU JUL 18 2013 .SHORT TERM...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH VALUES AROUND 1.0 INCH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST FROM WYOMING/NORTHWEST COLORADO. AIRMASS WARMS ENOUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS TO BREAK INVERSIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN ON THE PLAINS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM STALLING SURFACE TROUGH WILL SET UP FROM NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD AID LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND STORM DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. CAPES ARE LIMITED TO LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND LITTLE IF ANY SHEAR SO EXPECT PULSE OUTFLOW DOMINATED STORMS. THEY WILL STILL PRODUCE BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO INCREASED PRECIPITABLE WATER. TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR LATER TONIGHT...STORM THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS AIRMASS STABILIZES. THERE IS STILL WEAK Q-G LIFT NOTED SO CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO LINGERING PAST MIDNIGHT. .LONG TERM...THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1-1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 0.7-1 INCH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...EXPECTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE PLAINS. THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FOOTHILLS AND OLD BURN SCARS. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS READINGS. ON SATURDAY...A LITTLE EXTRA PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE EAST WILL ALLOW A THETA E RIDGE TO MOVE OVER THE PLAINS AND PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER THESE WILL BE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND SHOULD DIE OFF LATER IN THE EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL WARM A COUPLE DEGREES...HOWEVER IT MAY BE VERY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE WARMER AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AS THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAD BEEN PUSHED WEST OVER CALIFORNIA BUILDS BACK EAST. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO AND ABOVE NORMALS FOR MID TO LATE JULY. MODELS THEN SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DROP OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER FOR THESE DAYS...WITH SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TUESDAY THEN SPREADING OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST BY 15Z-17Z THIS MORNING AND THEN MORE NORTHERLY BY AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z. STORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER TODAY...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A TEMPO GROUP FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30-40 KTS. MAIN THREAT WOULD BE 21Z-04Z. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STRONG ENOUGH STORM MOVING DIRECTLY OVER THE AIRPORT TO REDUCE VSBYS TO 3-4SM. && .HYDROLOGY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO AROUND 1.0 INCH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. SEE THESE VALUES INCREASING SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY. AS A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH ALL STORMS ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY WILL BE SLOW MOVING. HOWEVER...WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS LIMITED TO JUST A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET GIVEN HIGH FREEZING LEVELS...AND RELATIVELY DEEP SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OUTFLOW DOMINATED STORMS. MAIN THREAT FOR ANY FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE IN THE FRONT RANGE BURN SCARS...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THOSE CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THREAT LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HIGHLIGHT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH  FXUS65 KBOU 190917 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 317 AM MDT FRI JUL 19 2013 .SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...LAST NIGHTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION HAS LEFT BEHIND A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX...OR MCV...OVER NORTHERN WELD COUNTY... CREEPING EASTWARD. MCVS ARE QUITE RARE AROUND HERE...BUT CAN SERVE TO SPARK CONVECTION ON THE DOWNSHEAR...OR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST SIDE IN THIS CASE. HARD TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THIS FEATURE WILL BE BY THE TIME WE REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS...BUT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. OTHERWISE...AS THE WATER VAPOR PLUME CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS TO THE DENVER METRO AREA/I-70 CORRIDOR/POINTS SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE AND DOWNSHEAR SIDE OF THE MCV BY LATE MORNING/NOON HOUR AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THERE ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TODAY. WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTIONS COULD SEE SOME DRYING AND EVEN SUBSIDENCE ON THE UPSHEAR SIDE OF THE MCV...ENOUGH FACTORS MENTIONED IN HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FOOTHILLS WITH MAIN THREAT ONCE AGAIN FOR THE BURN SCARS. COULD SEE RAINFALL RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES IN 45 MINUTES FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS. EXPECT THINGS TO WIND DOWN FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME DRYING NOTED MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. .LONG TERM...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY ALONG WITH A THETA E RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. CAPE VALUES OF BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG WILL BE FOUND OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL ALL COMBINE TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STRENGTH STORMS OVER THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE DECREASE OVER TODAY HOWEVER...SO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE A LOT LESS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING A FEW DEGREES AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER NEVADA CIRCULATES WARMER AIR AROUND INTO THE STATE. SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL FEATURE THE UPPER HIGH OVER NEVADA TO BEGIN TO MIGRATE BACK EAST. THIS WILL BRING AN OVERALL WARMING PATTERN. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT A FEW POSSIBLE STORMS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. THEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MAY PUSH A COOL FRONT DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES TO BRING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREEING IF THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO CO...FOR NOW WILL TREND THE FORECAST TO BRING IT IN WITH COOLER TEMPS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW WHICH RETROGRADED FROM WEST VIRGINIA ALL THE WAY TO ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER SONORA, MEXICO WILL CONTINUE ITS PATH WEST...THEN GET PULLED NORTH AROUND THE UPPER HIGH. THEN ITS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ONSHORE AND BRING MORE MOISTURE OUR WAY FOR THURSDAY. HAVE POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. && .AVIATION...STORM THREAT IS A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED FACTORS SO WILL LIKELY NEED TEMPO TSRA AND GUSTY VRB WINDS TO 35 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE 20Z-01Z WITH STORMS SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS 01Z-04Z. BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY...LOWER LIFTING CONDENSATION LEVELS AND RESULTANT DEEPER WARM CLOUD DEPTH NEAR 1500 METERS MEANS MORE EFFICIENT RAINERS POSSIBLE TODAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE OPTED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS WITH MAIN THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING ONCE AGAIN FOR THE BURN SCARS. COULD SEE RAINFALL RATES OF 1-1.5 INCHES IN 45 MINUTES FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS. EXPECT THINGS TO WIND DOWN BY 7-8 PM THIS EVENING WITH SOME DRYING NOTED MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING MOVING IN A LITTLE EARLIER FOR THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE BURN SCARS INCLUDING HIGH PARK AND FOURMILE...BUT STILL ENOUGH THREAT ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS TO WARRANT A WATCH AT THIS TIME. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS NOON UNTIL 8 PM MDT TODAY...COZ035>036. && $$ SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH  FXUS65 KBOU 120223 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 823 PM MDT WED SEP 11 2013 .UPDATE...ACTIVE EVENING WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES OCCURING...SEE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW. WILL CONTINUE HIGH POPS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TIL AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE FINALLY DECREASING. HOWEVER...STILL A THREAT OF FLOODING LATER TONIGHT EVEN AS INTENSITIES DECREASE GIVEN THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION...NO CHANGES. && .HYDROLOGY...LOW TOPPED AND VERY TROPICAL RAIN PATTERN WITH VERY DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH NEAR 10,000 FT. VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS THIS EVENING. FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT GIVEN WIDESPREAD NATURE OF RAIN TONIGHT AND CONVECTIVE PROPERTIES GRADUALLY DECREASE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM MDT WED SEP 11 2013/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR LAS VEGAS WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A VERY MOIST SOUTH- SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS IS BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO EASTERN AND NORTHEAST COLORADO AT THIS TIME. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND PUSH THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS EAST OF THE AREA. THERE IS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BEHIND THE WAVE AND THERE ARE PARTIAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. THESE BREAKS HAVE ALLOWED SOME LOCATIONS CLIMB TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP BEHIND THIS WAVE DUE TO SOME INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. WHERE TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND 70 DEGREES CAPES WILL BE AROUND 700 J/KG. NOT ENOUGH FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN OUT OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL RATES OUT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH AN INCH IN 20 TO 30 MINUTES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BETWEEN WAVES SO ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WAVE WILL ROTATE INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AIRMASS TO REMAIN VERY MOIST...SO HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE A THREAT. HIGHS WILL BE COOL OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TO LOWER 70S OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. LONG TERM...THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW THE AIRMASS OVER COLORADO WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH OCCASIONAL TROUGHS LIFTING ACROSS THE STATE. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SATURDAY LOOKS A BIT DRYER AND WARMER. ON SUNDAY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. THIS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...AND INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER COLORADO...AND A LEE SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORODO. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AVIATION...CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 3000 TO 6000 FEET ACROSS THE DENVER AREA FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CEILING MAY OCCASIONALLY BE HIGHER. AT BJC...CEILINGS WILL BE LOWER...AT 1000 TO 3000 FEET DUE TO UPSLOPE WINDS. CEILINGS WILL FALL OVERNIGHT AGAIN TO 500 TO 1500 FEET. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE AGAIN FOR FOG AND CEILINGS OF 100 TO 500 FEET BETWEEN 10Z AND 15Z. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY. HYDROLOGY...RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE SATURATED SOILS IN SPOTS. A FEW STREAMS ARE RUNNING HIGH BUT NO FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED. THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH PER HOUR...NOT A BIG CONCERN. HOWEVER THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OF 1 INCH IN 20 TO 30 MINUTES...WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. IT WILL DRY OUT SOME THIS WEEKEND BUT AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH LONG TERM....RTG AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH  FXUS65 KBOU 121329 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 729 AM MDT SAT OCT 12 2013 .UPDATE...STRATUS HAS BECOME QUITE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING...WITH EVEN SOME FOG AROUND DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. WITH WEAK DENVER CYCLONE IN PLAY AND CLOUD DEPTH UP TO 2500 FT AGL...BELIEVE STRATUS DISSIPATION WILL BE SLOWER THAN NORMAL ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF DENVER CYCLONE CONVERGENCE ZONE WHERE COOL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. && .AVIATION...FOG AT KDEN WITH 1/4SM TO 1/2SM VSBY IS RATHER LOCALIZED AND SHOULD THEREFORE LIFT INTO A LIGHT FOG AND STRATUS DECK BY 1430Z-1530Z. HAVE DELAYED DISSIPATION OF STRATUS DECK DUE TO FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM MDT SAT OCT 12 2013/ SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIFT FROM A JET STREAK IS TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING. THIS MAY LINGER UNTIL MID MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO. MOST AREAS OVER EASTERN COLORADO ARE SEEING MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS HAVE ALSO FORMING. MORNING MAY START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT WILL CLEAR BY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE MOVES OVER COLORADO. THE AIRMASS WARMS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIRMASS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO COLORADO AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. LONG TERM...SW FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON SUN AS SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS IN THE MTNS. A DECENT LOW LVL GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER ERN CO BY SUN AFTN SO WILL SEE GUSTY SSE WINDS WITH SOME INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE. OVERALL PCPN CHANCES LOOK RATHER LOW THRU SUN AFTN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLD TSTMS BY LATE AFTN OVER THE PLAINS. HIGHS ON SUN WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 OVER NERN CO. FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AS A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER WYOMING. A DECENT SHOT OF MID LVL QG ASCENT WILL MOVE ACROSS SUN NIGHT THRU MON MORNING. THUS SHOULD SEE A GOOD CHC OF SNOW IN THE NRN MTNS MAINLY NORTH OF I-70. OVER NERN CO SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SUN NIGHT WHICH MAY LINGER THRU MON MORNING AS MAIN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS. BY AFTN LOOKS LIKE A COLD FNT WILL PUSH ACROSS NERN CO WITH GUSTY NWLY WINDS DEVELOPING WHICH WILL USHER IN COOLER AOR. THUS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. BY MON NIGHT AND TUE THE CLOSED LOW OVER WYOMING WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AS A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY HANGS BACK OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MEANWHILE AT THE SFC SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO COLORADO WITH UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW SOME MOISTURE IN THE MTNS AND ALONG AND NR THE FOOTHILLS. THUS WILL KEEP IN A CHC OF -SHSN IN THE MTNS WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF PCPN IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS. HIGHS ON TUE WILL BE COLDER AS READINGS STAY IN THE 40S OVER NERN CO. FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING THE SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ESE ACROSS WRN AND SRN COLORADO. THUS MAY STILL SEE A CHC OF -SHSN OVER THE MTNS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70. EAST OF THE MTNS THE UPSLOPE WILL WEAKEN WITH ONLY SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS. THUS WILL ONLY MENTION SOME LOW POPS MAINLY IN THE SRN FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. BY WED AFTN DRIER AIR IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY PCPN. HIGHS ON WED WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S OVER NERN CO. BY LATE NEXT WEEK THERE ARE SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF BUILDS A RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN ROCKIES AS A DECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH A GOOD CHC OF PCPN. MEANWHILE THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BASICALLY HAS DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WITH NO PCPN AND SEASONAL TEMPS. A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION SO WILL KEEP THE PREVIOUS FCST INTACT WHICH HAD COOLER TEMPS AND CHC OF PCPN THU NIGHT INTO FRI. AVIATION...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 15Z. CEILINGS OF 1500 TO 3000 WILL OCCUR UNDER THE LOWEST CLOUDS. THERE ARE ALSO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS OF 6000 TO 10000 FEET. THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE OFF BETWEEN 15-18Z AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST MOST OF THE TIME THROUGH TONIGHT. SPEEDS WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS...THOUGH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. HYDROLOGY...NO CONCERNS. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH LONG TERM....RPK AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH  FXUS65 KBOU 160231 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 831 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 830 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014 THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER HAS DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY THIS EVENING AS THE COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER DISCUSSED EARLIER NEVER ALLOWED US TO TAP INTO DEEP SURFACE BASED CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS. LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS/FEW STORMS AND A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DRIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN WELD COUNTY AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...THERE IS A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTH FROM WYOMING CONVECTION WHICH COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS BY OR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ALSO BRING AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THREAT IF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN PUSH MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS THROUGH THE CAP. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THERE WILL STILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR. WITH WEAK DENVER CYCLONE OVERNIGHT AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WOULD EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT SO ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014 STORMS SO FAR HAVE GENERALLY DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED FIRST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN MOVING INTO THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR. STORMS THEN WEAKENING SO FAR EAST OF I-25 AS LOW LEVELS CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO RECOVER FROM WIDESPREAD MORNING CLOUDINESS THAT HAS BEEN SLOW TO ERODE. MAIN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG WAVE CENTERED NOW OVER CENTRAL MONTANA BUT WITH A GOOD JET ON ITS SOUTH SIDE PUSHING ACROSS WYOMING. FORCING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE AIDING SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO SE WY AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR FOOTHILLS. THIS UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IN MT WILL BE DROPPING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND AS IT DOES SO ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARDS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WITH THE AREA OF BEST PRECIPITATION TRENDING TO THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH TIME. LARGER SCALE MODELS DIFFER IN EXACT LOCATION OF MAXIMUM ACTIVITY FROM JUST OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST CO TO INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. LATEST TREND IN THE HRRR RUNS INCLUDE THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO AND HAVE TRENDED THE POPS ACCORDINGLY. HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT FARTHER EAST WITH LOWER LEVELS REMAINING ON THE COOL AND MORE STABLE SIDE BUT AT THIS TIME NOT ENOUGH THREAT FOR ANY KIND OF FLOOD WATCH. SEVERE STORM WISE THE MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND FRONT RANGE CORRIDOR WITH MORE STORMS MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HAIL SO FAR HAS NOT REACHED SEVERE LEVELS AND HEAVY RAINS MAY BE STRONGER THREAT. STORM MOVEMENT IS GOOD WITH MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE FLOOD THREAT MORE LOCALIZED. ENOUGH SHEAR CERTAINLY TO STILL GET SOME ROTATING STORMS AND THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. AREA OF BEST WARMING AND LOW LEVEL SE FLOW IS IN LARIMER...WELD AND MORGAN COUNTIES AND MAY YET BE SOME STRONGER SEVERE STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. A DISPLACE DENVER CYCLONE CONVERGENCE LINE IN PLACE EAST OF DENVER BUT SEEMS TOO STABLE IN THIS AREA TO HAVE IT BE A FACTOR AT THIS TIME. FOR TOMORROW WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND BEHIND THIS A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL PUSH DOWN THE FRONT RANGE. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY AS UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD FAVOR AREAS IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. SHOULD BE NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN GENERAL BUT SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR TOMORROW. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014 UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING OVER EASTERN COLORADO IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DECREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE SLIGHTLY...SO MAY STILL SEE SOME ACTIVITY OVER THE EAST PLAINS PAST MIDNIGHT. UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD THURSDAY. WARMING ALOFT WILL HELP STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPERATURES...THOUGH READINGS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW AVERAGE STILL. MAY SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. A WEAK LITTLE SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY WILL PUSH IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MOISTURE TO BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. PW VALUES WILL BE DOWN BETWEEN 0.5-0.75...SO LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN EVENT. 700 MB TEMPS WILL INCREASE BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES...BRINGING MAX TEMPS UP TO NEAR NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S FOR THE PLAINS AND 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY....THE UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE MEXICO AND NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL START PUSHING NORTH...ARRIVING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AROUND MONDAY EVENING. LOOK FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES...MEX GUIDANCE HAS A 101 FOR DENVER ON MONDAY. NOT BITING ON THAT JUST YET...HAVE RESTRICTED IT TO MID - UPPER 90S. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE UNDER THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION...WITH MOST COVERAGE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 830 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 04Z BUT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER EXPECTED. THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN A BETTER CHANCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTER 19Z. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST 10Z-15Z GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK DENVER CYCLONE. POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES TO FALL TO 1/4SM FOR A COUPLE HOURS CENTERED AROUND 12Z. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 830 PM MDT TUE JUL 15 2014 STILL HARD TO PINPOINT ANY THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT...BUT IF WE TAP INTO HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR THEN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 6000-7000 FEET. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SURGE OF DEEPER NORTHEASTERLIES PUSHING HIGH THETA-E AIR UP AGAINST/INTO THE FOOTHILLS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE NECESSARY FOR THAT PERIOD. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH SHORT TERM...SZOKE LONG TERM...KRIEDERMAN AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH/SZOKE  FXUS65 KBOU 030946 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 346 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ) ISSUED AT 221 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015 MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ENTRAINED AND STUCK UNDER THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE RIDGE HAS BEEN FLATTENED BY A BROAD TROUGH PUSHING EAST OVER THE US/CANADA BORDER. A FEW RIPPLES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW HAS HELPED ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER CO...INCREASING MOISTURE. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OVER THE KS/CO BORDER WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN ALONG THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO COLORADO STARTING MID MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TURN TO AN UPSLOPE NORTHEAST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO PUSH MORE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO OR A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AROUND NOON WILL PUSH OFF ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH PW VALUES INCREASING ABOUT 0.2" OVER YESTERDAY...LOOK FOR STORMS TO HAVE MORE MOISTURE AND WEAKER GUSTY WINDS TODAY. NAM HAS SHOWN A DECREASE IN CAPE VALUES OVER THE LAST MODEL RUN. EXPECT CAPE VALUES OF ABOUT 500 TO 800 J/KG TODAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO SEVERE THREAT FOR TODAY. AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH THIS EVENING...AN EASTERLY JET PUSHES IN TO INCREASE MOISTURE EVEN MORE AS A 700 MB CLOSED LOW FORMS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL FORM OVER THE PLAINS AND THE EASTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS OF THE FRONT RANGE. SEVERAL MODELS POINTING TO CONVECTION FORMING JUST EAST OF THE DENVER AIRPORT THIS EVENING AND PUSHING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE WEST OF THE DIVIDE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT FOR THE PLAINS WITH MOISTURE BEING PILED UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH...NEAR 11 KFT. HAVE WARMED TONIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURES WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015 ...WET AND UNSETTLED WEEK AHEAD WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... MONDAY WILL START OFF WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG ON THE EASTERN PLAINS AND FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS WITH CONTINUED MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS...LOCAL DRIZZLE...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO STABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...BUT NONETHELESS WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SEEN IN THE Q-G FIELDS AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE BETTER SURFACE HEATING OCCURS WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...SEE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW. THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY LOOKS QUITE LOW CONSIDERING LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND COOL/SLIGHTLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL QUICKLY FILL BACK IN TUESDAY AS STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH GETS KICKED NORTHEAST INTO THE STATE. INCREASING SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BASED ON INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF THESE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES LINING UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A VERY MOIST/SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. WHILE MARGINAL INSTABILITY GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG WILL KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...THERE MAY BE A THREAT OF SHORT LIVED WEAK TORNADOES AS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD STRENGTHENS AND LCLS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 3000 FT AGL. WILL SEE A CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 10500 AND 12000 FEET FOR MOST OF THIS PRECIP EVENT WITH SEVERAL INCHES TO OVER A FOOT ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE KICKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS TAKING THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY LINGERING IN THE STILL RATHER MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AND POTENTIAL FOR ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW TO KEEP A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DRIER PERIOD IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT AS MOISTURE DOES NOT SCOUR OUT COMPLETELY. FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST. THERE MAY ALSO BE A HIGHER RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY HINGE ON EVENTUAL LOCATION OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND IF HIGHER THETA-E RIDGE CAN BUBBLE UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE/HIGH PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015 SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. CURRENT DRAINAGE WINDS SHOULD VEER CLOCKWISE TO A EAST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION AROUND 18Z AS A COOL FRONT PUSHES DOWN THE FRONT RANGE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND OVER THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS AFTER 21Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS...WHILE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...THEN AS THE AIRMASS MOISTENS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW...THERE WILL BE LESS WIND AND MORE RAIN. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING AND CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR BY 09Z ALONG WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015 PW EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 0.1-0.2" TODAY FOR VALUES NEAR 0.65-0.75". A STRONG EASTERLY JET LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL HELP PUSH THIS MOISTURE INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND INTO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MODELS ARE SHOWING A CONCENTRATION OF PRECIP JUST EAST OF THE DENVER AIRPORT...AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WETTER WITH RAINFALL RATES OF AN INCH TO INCH IN 30 MINUTES OR LESS. THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHORT/MEDIUM RANGE MODEL OUTPUT HAS BEEN RATHER CONSISTENT BRINGING HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT UP AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE IN PERSISTENT BUT SHALLOW EAST/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. PW VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 0.75-0.80 INCH FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND TO AROUND 1 INCH ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME AIRMASS IS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH SKINNY CAPE PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS ONLY AROUND 3000 FEET SO THAT WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT DEVELOPING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THAT WOULD TEND TO SHIFT THE MAIN THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE FRONT RANGE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TOWARD THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR APPROACHING 2-3 STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES...BUT THOSE ARE STILL FAR BELOW PEAK SUMMERTIME MONSOON VALUES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WITH OF COURSE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN CONVECTIVE NATURE AND LONGER DURATION EVENT. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS ONLY BURN SCARS WOULD BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KRIEDERMAN LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN HYDROLOGY...KRIEDERMAN/BARJENBRUCH  FXUS65 KBOU 051032 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 432 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ) ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015 CONCERN TODAY SURROUNDS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING. LAST NIGHTS SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE VERY EFFICIENT AND SOME WARM RAIN PROCESSES WERE NOTED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. A SMALL AREA IN NORTH CENTRAL BOULDER COUNTY RECORDED 1.3 TO 2.8 INCHES OF RAIN IN LOW TOPPED CONVECTION...AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH IN CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY FOOTHILLS WITH NO LIGHTNING. WARM CLOUD DEPTH WAS AS DEEP AS 5000-5500 FEET...AND SAME EXPECTED FOR TODAY. THERE IS AN UPSLOPE EAST/SOUTHEAST COMPONENT MOST OF THE DAY...AND AS SOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH APPROACH OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AT LEAST WEAK Q-G LIFT SHOULD SEE SHOWERS BREAK OUT IN EARNEST WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WERE ALREADY INCREASING IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO...AND THESE SHOULD REACH PALMER DIVIDE BY MID MORNING AND DENVER/I-25 CORRIDOR LATE MORNING. ONE FACTOR THAT COULD LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. A COUPLE OF THESE ALREADY NOTED IN WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THOSE COULD KEEP THREAT OF HEAVIER RAINFALL ON THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS INTO WESTERN KANSAS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...BUT MAY CONTINUE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER AND THE MOUNTAINS AS WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE TROUGH. FINALLY...CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND DENVER CYCLONE...BUT UPDRAFTS WILL BE QUITE WEAK WITH LIMITED CAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG. WITH REGARD TO FLASH FLOOD WATCH...SEE FURTHER METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION IN HYRDO SECTION BELOW. IN THE MOUNTAINS...WET BULB ZERO LEVELS SUGGEST SNOW LEVELS AVERAGING 10500-12000 FEET TODAY...LOWERING ABOUT A THOUSAND FEET BEHIND TROUGH AXIS TONIGHT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS ABOVE MOST ROADS...SO NO ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING WITH MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. THEN DEEPER SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND MIXING SHOULD ERODE FOG TOWARD LATE MORNING. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015 THE ABNORMALLY WET WEATHER PATTERN STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTER TONIGHTS NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...COLORADO WILL REMAIN UNDER WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL BE OPEN TO THE FURTHER INTRUSION OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS EACH DAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE 700 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY LEVELS RISING TO A JUICY 6 G/KG AT TIMES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST CAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN ALMOST 1000 J/KG ON THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...HELPING TO HOLD MOISTURE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE FOR MORE RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD DRAW UP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW AND THEN GENERATE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO THE -4 TO -8 DEGREE RANGE...SO THIS SHOULD BRING THE SNOW LEVELS DOWN...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS COULD SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW WHICH WILL ALSO HELP OUT THE HYDROLOGY SITUATION TEMPORARILY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND. AND PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE HIGH. THE HYDROLOGICAL SITUATION IS GOING TO NEED TO BE MONITORED AS AREAS RECEIVE REPEATED RAINFALL AND SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN APPROACHING SATURATION. NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY BE THE BREAK WE ARE LOOKING FOR AS AN UPPER RIDGE IS FINALLY FORECAST TO MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA...IF ONLY FOR A COUPLE DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015 AREAS OF FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1/4SM TO 1/2SM EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE AREA TIL 15Z-16Z. KDEN AND KBJC WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THIS FOG WHILE KAPA MAY VERY WELL BE ON THE EDGE WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND COMPONENT THERE. EVEN A SWITCH TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT KDEN COULD HELP ERODE THE FOG. BY 16Z-17Z EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO BE DEVELOPING WHICH WILL HELP MIX THE ATMOSPHERE AND ERODE ANY LINGERING THICKER FOG. VISIBILITIES MAY HOLD IN THE 4-5SM RANGE WITH RAIN AND LIGHT FOG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 2SM IN HEAVY RAIN 19Z- 24Z. EXPECT A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS TOWARD 03Z-06Z TONIGHT AS LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 432 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015 FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NEARLY SATURATED RIGHT UP THE MOIST ADIABAT...SO ANY WEAK HEATING OR FORCING MECHANISM SHOULD REACT EFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB FROM NEAR 0.75 TO 0.80 INCH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THIS MORNING TO 0.85 TO 0.90 INCH...ALL ABOVE RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS DATE. LAST NIGHTS RAINS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED SOME MINOR STREAM RISES...AND GROUNDS ARE BECOMING MORE SATURATED. THEREFORE...WE WILL BE ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RIGHT NOW...THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE THE FOOTHILLS...BURN SCARS...AND PALMER DIVIDE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS FELL LAST NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE MOVING FASTER TODAY BUT WE EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN GIVEN LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WHICH MAY ADD TO FLOODING CONCERNS. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR COZ035-036-041-046. && $$ SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH LONG TERM...DANKERS AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH  FXUS65 KBOU 061041 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 441 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ) ISSUED AT 441 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015 LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION ZONE AND AREA OF ENHANCED RAINFALL. THIS RAIN BAND EXTENDED FROM AROUND CHEYENNE TO GREELEY AND THEN TO DIA AND POINTS JUST EAST. THE BAND HAS PRETTY MUCH STALLED AS IT JUST NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST...THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ROTATE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING. ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR...A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OFF THE FOOTHILLS WAS ALLOWING SOME DRYING...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN AND RIGHT NEXT TO THE FOOTHILLS. MEANWHILE...MOUNTAIN CAMS AND RADAR SHOWED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. SNOW LEVEL WAS AVERAGING 9500-10500 FEET. THOSE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH 1-3 INCHES IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS OF SUMMIT COUNTY AS UPSTREAM MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR. BY AFTERNOON...THE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL EVENTUALLY EXIT THE NORTHEAST CORNER. MEANWHILE...A LOW LEVEL PRESSURE SURGE FROM THE NORTH AND PRESSURE FALLS TO OUR SOUTH SHOULD BRING ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE FRONT RANGE. THE AIRMASS WILL BE DESTABILIZING WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE I-25 CORRIDOR...FOOTHILLS...AND MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE CAPES SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 500-800 J/KG. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY LATE EVENING AS AIRMASS GRADUALLY STABILIZES. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND LIGHT WIND FIELD WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 441 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015 IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FOUR DAYS OF WET WEATHER FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE US UNDER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOW CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. WIND PROFILES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RUNOFF FROM SHOWERS WILL BE QUICK...GIVEN THE SOIL CONDITIONS NEAR SATURATION AT MANY LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE PALMER DIVIDE...I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR AND THE FOOTHILLS OF JEFFERSON AND BOULDER COUNTIES. ON FRIDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO AS AN UPPER LOW CONSOLIDATES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY...HELPING STRENGTHEN UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL. THEN WE COME TO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON ITS WAY TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DURING THE 24-48 HOURS THAT IT TAKES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRAVEL ACROSS THE STATE...PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLY COLD ENOUGH TO DROP SNOW LEVELS TO THE LOWER FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. SOME SNOW MAY FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR IF THERE WILL BE ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS POINT. HYDROLOGY CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF SNOW ACCUMULATES IN THE FOOTHILLS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IT COULD TEMPORARILY EASE THE HYDROLOGY SITUATION...BUT ONLY UNTIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHEN WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN AND MELT THE YOUNG SNOWPACK. EACH OF THE SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS DEPICT SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MONDAY AND TUESDAY HAVE THE CHANCE TO BE DRIER AS THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW TAKES THE MOIST AIRMASS WITH IT AND A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES OVER THE STATE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 441 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015 LOWER CEILINGS UNDER 1000 FEET AND LIGHT RAIN AT KDEN HAVE BEEN HANGING TOUGH AS DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP BAND HELD NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...KBJC AND KAPA HAVE SEEN SOME BREAKS OF THE LOW CLOUDS. THE RAIN BAND IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST AND AS LONG AS WINDS GO A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY AT KDEN THE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO BREAK UP 12Z-15Z. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP WHERE THIS IS PARTIAL CLEARING SO WILL MONITOR THAT THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT INTO THE 6000-8000 FOOT RANGE TOWARD 16Z-18Z. THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK FRONTAL PUSH. ENOUGH COVERAGE ANTICIPATED FOR TEMPO SHOWER/STORM 20Z-02Z TIME FRAME. THEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL COME TO AN END 02Z-05Z. POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND VISIBILITIES 1/4SM-1/2SM LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 441 AM MDT WED MAY 6 2015 BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING PRODUCING UP TO ANOTHER QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH. SOME THREAT OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS LIMITED TODAY AND STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING 10-15 MPH. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 0.70 INCH IS STILL NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS DATE...SO STILL SOME THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES CONSIDERING SATURATED GROUNDS AND LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES. SOME STREAMS INCLUDING BEAR CREEK AND BEAVER BROOK ARE RUNNING HIGH...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THOSE WITH ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. CONDITIONS WILL BE LITTLE IMPROVED ON THURSDAY. SOIL MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH AND A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE IN A PRECARIOUS SITUATION ON THURSDAY IF THEY RECEIVE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AT THAT TIME. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH LONG TERM...DANKERS AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH/DANKERS  FXUS65 KBOU 040954 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 354 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ) ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 STORM INTENSITY FINALLY WEAKENED IN THE MIDNIGHT HOUR AND ALL BUT THE LAST STORMS ARE EXITING THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. A MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BEHIND LAST NIGHTS SHORT WAVE. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL ALSO BE DRYING AND WARMING. AS A RESULT... CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL TEND TO BE SUPPRESSED TODAY. HOWEVER...THE NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL JUICY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THAT WILL ALLOW HIGH CAPES TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES SHOULD REACH 2000-3000 J/KG BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE CLOSER TO 1500-2000 J/KG AS SOME DRY AIR WILL BE JUST OFF THE DECK. WIND SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER TODAY AND GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS...SO THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WILL BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. STILL EXPECT A FEW SEVERE STORMS THOUGH WITH SUCH LARGE CAPE VALUES...LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THERE IS A DENVER CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE ZONE ALREADY DEVELOPING...SO THIS COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO OR TWO ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...LOOK FOR A FAIRLY NORMAL PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM DOUGLAS COUNTY INTO ARAPAHOE COUNTY. THE STORMS SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS THIS EVENING AS WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEGINS TO BE REPLACED BY WEAK Q-G LIFT OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND PARTIAL CLEARING. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 MODELS KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. JET LEVEL SPEEDS ARE 30 TO 50 KNOTS. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE LOS ANGELS BASIN AT 12Z FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH ONLY MOVES TO NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF UTAH BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS WEAK UPWARD QG VERTICAL VELOCITY PROGGED FOR THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE BOUNDARY LOWER FLOW WILL BE EASTERLY ON FRIDAY...THEN SOUTHEASTERLY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. NORMAL DRAINAGE KICKS IN LATER FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPING ON SATURDAY...THEN MORE NORMAL DRAINAGE BY LATE EVENING. THE MODELS HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THE CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A PRETTY DECENT THETA-E AXIS OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY...AND OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF COLORADO ON SATURDAY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S F ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE CAPE VALUES OVER THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS ARE UP TO 3000 J/KG LATE DAY FRIDAY...AND UP TO 2500 J/KG LATE DAY SATURDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT SHEAR PROGGED LATE DAY FRIDAY ...AND EVEN BETTER LATE DAY SATURDAY. SPC HAS A BUNCH OF THE PLAINS IN A "SLIGHT RISK" OF SEVERE STORMS BOTH LATE DAY FRIDAY AND LATE DAY SATURDAY. THERE IS MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER ALL THE CWA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY EVENING. SO FOR POPS WILL NEED TO KEEP IN OR GO-WITH "SCATTERED"S FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMES BOTH DAYS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER PROGS ARE IN THE 0.60 TO 1.30 INCH RANGE FROM THE DIVIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS ALL FOUR PERIODS...SO HEAVY RAIN IS A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT. FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY'S HIGHS ARE 2-5 C COLDER THAN TODAY'S HIGHS. SATURDAY'S READINGS ARE 0-2 C WARMER THAN FRIDAY'S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER CLOSED LOW TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO UTAH ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY IT GETS OVER COLORADO AND IS WEAKER STILL. THE FLOW ALOFT IS PRETTY STRONG AND ZONAL ON MONDAY. THE ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ON TUESDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING TO MOVE IN...THEN THE UPPER RIDGE IS RIGHT OVER COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS DRIES OUT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT IT IS STILL FAIRLY WET SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 MAIN CONCERN IS FOG THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE PARTIALLY CLEARING BUT SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS STILL AROUND TOO. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE IN PLACE...FAVORABLE FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS KDEN TO FOG IN ESPECIALLY WITH ANY CLEARING. HAVE SEEN THE VISIBILITY BEGIN TO DROP THERE AND SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOP THROUGH DAWN...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1/4-1/2SM VSBY AND CEILINGS VV001-002 TIL AROUND 14Z. THEN EXPECT FOG AND STRATUS TO GRADUALLY BREAK THROUGH 15Z- 17Z WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF TIL AROUND 21Z-22Z DURING PEAK HEATING...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MORE LIMITED THAN YESTERDAY. STILL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALONG DENVER CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS 22Z-01Z. COULD SEE FOG REDEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT BUT MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WOULD LIMIT THAT POTENTIAL. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2015 ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN NEAR 1.0 INCH ON THE PLAINS AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH NEAR 3000-4000 FEET. NOT ANTICIPATING SUFFICIENT COVERAGE AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS AIRMASS BECOMES QUITE MOIST. STREAMS AND RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH WITH SNOWMELT AND SOME RAINFALL RUNOFF. FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE CACHE LA POUDRE AND SOUTH PLATTE IN CENTRAL WELD COUNTY...WITH ADVISORIES FOR THE CACHE LA POUDRE IN LARIMER COUNTY WHERE BIKE PATH/TRAIL FLOODING IS EXPECTED...AND SOUTH BOULDER CREEK NEAR ELDORADO SPRINGS AS FLOWS FROM GROSS RESERVOIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH LONG TERM...RJK AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH  FXUS65 KBOU 061030 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 430 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ) ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LIFT MOVING NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN UTAH...WESTERN COLORADO...AND EASTERN ARIZONA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING IN THIS AREA...WHILE NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO WAS DRY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BULK OF THE LIFT SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS FORECAST TO HOLD JUST TO OUR WEST TODAY AS ADVERTISED BY THE Q-G FIELDS. HOWEVER...THE PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET KNIFES ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO. AT THE SAME TIME...THERE IS SOME WARMING AND SLIGHT DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS...AT LEAST ON THIS SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. THE WARMING WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...WE STILL EXPECT CAPES TO REACH THE 1000-1800 J/KG RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS JUST EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR. THIS INSTABILITY ALONG WITH RATHER STRONG BULK SHEAR WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...BUT A LOWER RISK OF TORNADOES TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL BE WEAKER WITH A LESS FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE. WILL KEEP THE HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST AS MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS AS A SEMI- ORGANIZED LINE WILL LIKELY PUSH OFF THE MOUNTAINS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT WITH Q-G LIFT BEGINNING TO INCREASE AND A WEAK FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015 REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW PRESENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL STRETCH OUT AND CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY DECREASING THE FLOW ALOFT AND PROVIDING A BIT OF WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR OUR AREA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE FOOTHILLS TO KEEP THE THREAT OF DIURNAL CONVECTION RATHER HIGH ON SUNDAY WITH LESS COVERAGE MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE DRIEST AND WARMEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THOSE TWO DAYS. MORE MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RETURN THEREAFTER ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015 PATCHY BUT DENSE FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS IF WINDS TURN WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND WEAK DENVER CYCLONE. WILL KEEP VCFG IN THE FORECAST BUT MONITOR CLOSELY AS ANY WIND SHIFT COULD BRING VSBY RAPIDLY DOWN TO 1/4SM IN FOG TIL 14Z-15Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 20Z-24Z. EXPECT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS AND BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION DUE TO MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN. VISUAL LANDING CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY 02Z TONIGHT BUT POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 430 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2015 STORMS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER BASED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MOVING ALONG AT 20-25 MPH TODAY. SOME MID LEVEL DRYING OCCURS WITH SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW COMING OFF THE FRONT RANGE BUT OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN QUITE HIGH. STILL SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE BUT FLASH FLOOD THREAT SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS GIVEN EXPECTED MOVEMENT AND DECREASED WARM CLOUD DEPTH. THEREFORE WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY. MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD PICK UP MORE RAINFALL THAN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WITH THE MOISTURE BEING OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED THERE. THIS WILL ADD LOADING TO THE EXISTING SNOWMELT RUNOFF AND WOULD FURTHER ELEVATE HIGH COUNTRY STREAM LEVELS. WITH REGARD TO SPECIFIC RIVERS AND STREAMS...THE SOUTH PLATTE REMAINS UNDER A FLOOD WARNING FROM HENDERSON IN ADAMS COUNTY NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH WELD...MORGAN...AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES...ALONG WITH THE CACHE LA POUDRE NEAR GREELEY AND SOUTH BOULDER CREEK NEAR ELDORADO SPRINGS. THE SOUTH PLATTE NEAR HENDERSON SHOULD FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY EARLY EVENING BARRING ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE DENVER METRO AREA TODAY. CACHE LA POUDRE AT THE CANYON MOUTH REMAINS UNDER AN ADVISORY...WHILE MANY OTHER STREAMS INCLUDING BEAR CREEK THROUGH EVERGREEN AND MORRISON AND THE BIG THOMPSON THROUGH ESTES PARK CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH. NO REAL RELIEF IN STORE FOR THE HYDROLOGY SITUATION IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LESS COVERAGE ANTICIPATED MONDAY. LESS MOISTURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MEANS MORE SUNSHINE AND MELTING SNOW TO KEEP RIVER LEVELS UP. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK FOR AN INCREASING THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS EXACERBATING THE HYDROLOGICAL SITUATION AT THAT TIME. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH LONG TERM...ET AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH/ET  FXUS65 KBOU 072035 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 235 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE OVER THE PLAINS WHERE THEY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 50S OVER THE PLAINS AND 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. A MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW CONTINUES. MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH WITH A DISTURBANCE AIDING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AFTERNOON. FOR TOMORROW MORNING EXPECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS BRINGING A SLOWER WARM UP SIMILAR TO TODAY. BY THE AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SHOWING A SATURATED ATM UP TO 500 MB WITH PW VALUES OF 1.00 TO 1.15 INCHES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO INCLUDE THE FOOTHILLS WITH A CHANCE ELSEWHERE. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WITH SLOWER MOVING STORMS AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES. FURTHER INVESTIGATION WILL BE NEEDED TO LOOK INTO ANY FLOOD PRODUCTS FOR LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN PREPARATION FOR ISOLATED FLOODING EVENTS IN CONJUGATION WITH THE STORMS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 210 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE. SEE HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION BELOW REGARDING HEAVY RAIN THREAT. WILL HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS FOCUSED MOST ON THE PALMER DIVIDE/LINCOLN COUNTY AREA IN THE EVENING AND THEN DECREASING ALL AREAS LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FOR THURSDAY...SOME DRYING IS NOTED BUT NOT SURE WE WILL SEE THAT MUCH AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ON THE PLAINS WILL HOLD SOUTH/SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THE AIRMASS IS MORE STABLE ON THE EASTERN PLAINS SO EXPECT A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...CAPE VALUES ALONG THE FRONT RANGE EXPECTED TO REACH 1000-1500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR FOR ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS. STORMS WILL BE MOVING FASTER SO THREAT OF ANY FLOODING IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER. ON FRIDAY...SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL FINALLY DEVELOP WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SCOUR ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BUT AT THE SAME TIME WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. GREATEST CAPE VALUES ON FRIDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WHERE A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP. OTHERWISE STORMS WILL BE HIGHER BASED AND PRODUCE LIGHTER PRECIPITATION. DRIER AND EVEN WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARM AIR ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BUT CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT HIGH BASED STORMS GIVEN SOME FEEDBACK FROM RELATIVELY MOIST SOIL/VEGETATION. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. THIS WOULD ALLOW MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO BUILD AND SPREAD BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO. BEST CHANCES WOULD OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION SPILLING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015 CONDITIONS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HAZE RESTRICTING VIS DOWN TO 3-4 SM AND CEILINGS HOVERING AROUND 020-030 AGL. STORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE PERIOD SO WILL MAINTAIN THE TSRA TEMPO GROUP WITH VCTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TOMORROW WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z WITH MODERATE TSRA. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2015 A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN THE PLACE WITH PW VALUES OF 1.00 TO 1.15 FOR WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW INCREASING QPE VALUES OVER THE REGION WITH GFS AND NAM SHOWING UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF BY 00Z THURSDAY. STORMS WILL BE SLOWER MOVING THAN DAYS PRIOR SO A POSSIBLE FLOOD THREAT DOES EXIST FOR ALREADY SATURATED AREAS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOCUS SHOULD BE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HOWEVER...WHICH WOULD PUT LINCOLN/ELBERT COUNTIES AT MOST RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. WARM CLOUD DEPTH NEAR 6000 FEET...SLOW STORM MOVEMENT...AND HIGH PW VALUES WOULD ALL BE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL STORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER BASED AND FASTER MOVING SO NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOWEN LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH AVIATION...BOWEN HYDROLOGY...BOWEN/BARJENBRUCH  FXUS65 KBOU 221021 AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 421 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ) ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS COLORADO IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THEN SLOW OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVELS ARE INITIALLY QUITE DRY AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS CRANK UP. THERE IS ALSO PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF A STERLING TO AKRON TO LIMON LINE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THOSE STORMS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION. ELSEWHERE INCLUDING THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND MOUNTAINS...THE LOW LEVELS ARE MUCH DRIER SO ONLY ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. DESPITE THE MILD START TO THE DAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015 AFTER THE PASSAGE OF TONIGHT/S UPPER TROUGH...WITH MOST OF THE WEATHER OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...IT APPEARS THAT A STRONG...POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE IS GOING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF DRY...LATE SUMMER WEATHER ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO THAT LASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN IS THE PREFERRED MODEL OVER THE GFS WHICH WANTS TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT COMES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IS GENERALLY DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY ISSUED SINCE IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE SUB- TROPICAL MOISTURE IS GOING TO BE DRAWN TO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AND WILL NOT BE IMPACTING THE MOUNTAINS AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WITHOUT MUCH RAINFALL DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE COOLED TOO MUCH...AND WARMING DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS CLIMBING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. ALL IN ALL...A PLEASANT ALBEIT DRY START TO AUTUMN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED 10-15 PERCENT CHANCE OF A HIGH BASED SHOWER OR STORM THREAT 23Z- 06Z. MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE WIND DIRECTION WITH A DENVER CYCLONE IN PLACE. WE WILL START THE DAY WITH A WEST/NORTHWEST COMPONENT LIKELY SWITCHING TO MORE NORTHERLY 15Z-18Z AND THEN PERHAPS EAST/SOUTHEAST AT 10-17 KNOTS TOWARD 22Z-02Z. CYCLONE COULD MATURE WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AGAIN DEVELOPING TOWARD 06Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015 SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH ON THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON...INCREASING THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. HOWEVER...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE WITH THE ONSET OF STRONGEST WINDS. ELSEWHERE INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS AND FRONT RANGE I-25 CORRIDOR...LIGHTER EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015 THERE ARE SOME HYDROLOGY CONCERNS FOR THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS TONIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT COUPLED WITH REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16 WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON LEFT EXIT REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT LIFT AND POTENTIAL FOR A LONGER DURATION PRECIPITATION EVENT AND TRAINING CELLS. STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 5000-8000 FEET...SKINNY CAPE PROFILE...AND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER. QUESTION IS WHERE THIS EXACTLY SETS UP. 00Z NAM IS THE FARTHEST WEST OUTLIER WITH HEAVY RAIN NOT TOO FAR EAST OF DENVER...BUT SEEMS LARGER SCALE MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON SITUATION AS AGREED UPON BY WPC FORECASTERS...FAVORING THE COLORADO AND KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AREA AND POINTS JUST EAST. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS ALSO VERY HIGH CONSIDERING DRY CONDITIONS AS OF LATE...SO NO HIGHLIGHTS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. FARTHER WEST... LOW LEVELS ARE MUCH DRIER AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE MUCH HIGHER BASED WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH LONG TERM...DANKERS AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH FIRE WEATHER...BARJENBRUCH HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH  FXUS65 KBOU 211037 CCA AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 354 AM MDT MON MAR 21 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 21 2016 UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS...LOW BNDRY LAYER RH VALUES AND GUSTY W-NWLY SFC WINDS BENEATH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ELEVATE THE RANGELAND FIRE DANGER TO HIGH/VERY HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SFC/850 MB WIND SPEEDS IN THE 12-20KT RANGE AND PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS AFTER 18Z. FURTHERMORE MODEL 700MB TEMPS OVER THIS SAME AREA IN THE 4.5-5 DEG RANGE...EQUATING TO MAX TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S OUT THERE. FURTHERMORE...THIS SAME AREA MISSED OUT ON THE SNOW FROM THE LAST SNOW MAKER A COUPLE DAYS AGO. SO FINE FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY OUT THERE. THEREFORE...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT TODAY FOR LOGAN...SEDGWICK...PHILLIPS AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THESE CRITICAL RANGELAND FIRE CNDTNS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A DROP OFF IN WIND SPEEDS. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LEE SLOPE MTN WAVE RESULTING IN PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOULD SEE VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUD THICKNESS AS WELL AS PERIODS OF SUNSHINE. EVEN WITH THE OVERLYING CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK TODAY WITH THE ADIABATIC EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE FRONT RANGE. DON/T SEE ANY RECORD BEING BROKEN TODAY. FOR INSTANCE RECORD HIGH AT DENVER IS 80. GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE METRO AREA. THAT/S STILL QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXCLUDING THE GUSTY WLY WINDS ACRS THE NORTHEAST CORNER AND OVER HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE WHERE GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WINDS ELSEWHERE NOT AS STRONG EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE BURST OF WLY WINDS THAT MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW CROSSING THE I-25 CORRIDOR/DEN METRO AREA AROUND 21Z TODAY. COULD SEE GUSTS AROUND 20KTS WITH THIS WLY WIND BURST. TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY MILD TEMPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH A CONTINUATION OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INTERMITTENT MTN WAVE CLOUDINESS. GUSTY WLY WINDS ALSO A GOOD BET ABOVE TIMBERLINE AND EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MTN WAVE IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT...SHOULD ALSO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE DAY... BUT NO PRECIP YET...WITH STEERING WINDS TURNING SWLY IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACRS THE GREAT BASIN. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 21 2016 MAIN CONCERN THIS WEEK WILL BE FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ON THE PLAINS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. INITIALLY ON TUESDAY...ITS THE WARM BEFORE THE STORM. RIDGING ALOFT SHIFTS EAST OF COLORADO AS STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO. TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 70 DEGREES BUT WITH SOME INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE TROF OVER COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME POSITIONING DIFFERENCES WITH THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION THE FURTHEST SOUTH WHILE NAM AND GFS ARE FURTHER NORTH. FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. FURTHER WEST...STRONGER NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY LESSEN SNOW POTENTIAL OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR. WITH THE INITIAL WARM ATMOSPHERE...MAINLY RAIN AND SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ALL SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY LOOKS LIKE A 4-8 INCH SNOWFALL ON THE PLAINS BUT WITH DAYTIME AND SPRING WARMTH SNOW COLLECTION COULD BE REDUCED. CERTAINLY WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR AND POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. SINCE MAIN SNOW IMPACT WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AND 5TH PERIOD IN FORECAST WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HILITES AT THIS TIME BUT WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO EVENT. THE STORM WILL BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE SO NO PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY. A BREAK IN THE ACTION ON THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY AND WARMER BEFORE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE VARIED SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 21 2016 VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS BENEATH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SLY WINDS EARLY TO MID MORNING SHOULD TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SHORT PERIOD OF GUSTY WLY WINDS AROUND 21Z WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 18-25KT RANGE. THEN A RETURN TO A LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WITH NIGHT FALL. IN ADDITION...MTN WAVE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MTN WAVE CLOUDINESS WITH THE BASE OF LENTICULAR CLOUDS ROUGHLY 10-12 THSND FT AGL. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 21 2016 A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR LOGAN...SEDGWICK...PHILLIPS AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES/FIRE WEATHER ZONES 248-251/ FROM 1200-1800 HRS MDT TODAY. COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS...LOW SFC RELATIVE HUMIDITY...GUSTY W-NWLY SFC WINDS AND DRY FINE FUELS WILL ELEVATE THE RANGELAND FIRE DANGER TO HIGH TO VERY HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE EYE- LEVEL WIND SPEEDS IN THE 12-18KT RANGE AND PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS AFTER 18Z. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S IN THIS AREA. THIS SAME AREA MISSED OUT ON THE RECENT SNOWFALL. SO FINE FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY OUT THERE. THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CNDTNS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A DROP OFF IN WIND SPEEDS. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION. HOWEVER...LAST WEEKS STORM BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT WATER TO DOUGLAS...ELBERT AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY BUT DRIER CONDITIONS STILL EXIST OVER SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. COULD SEE A SMALL WINDOW OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL REASSESS THIS IN LATER SHIFTS. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ248>251. && $$ SHORT TERM...BAKER LONG TERM...ENTREKIN AVIATION...BAKER FIRE WEATHER...BAKER/ENTREKIN