FXUS61 KBGM 161744 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 144 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013 .SYNOPSIS... SOUTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ANY STORMS THAT FORM MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS. SHOWERS WILL END OVERNIGHT...LEAVING WEDNESDAY DRY. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 115 PM UPDATE... FIRST BATCH OF RAIN CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WHICH APPEARS TO ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD. LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WITH THIS FIRST CLUSTER HAS DECREASED MARKEDLY WITH PROGRESSION THROUGH THE CWA SIGNIFYING THE CURRENT STABILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ATTENTION NOW FOCUSED ON UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WHERE RECENT VIS SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE SHOWN SOME PARTIAL BREAKS IN THE OVERLYING CLOUD COVER. LATEST RUC MLCAPE FIELDS SHOWING LATTERLY NO INSTABILITY ACROSS UPSTATE NY THIS HR BUT HIGH-RES MODELS DO SUGGEST A WEAK LINE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SLGT CHC THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA LEADS TO DRIER AIR AND A NORTH TO SOUTH REDUCTION IN PRECIP DURING THE EVENING HRS. MAX TEMPS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON CURRENT RAIN ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT LOW TO MID 60S STILL LOOK REASONABLE. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THE PRESENT TIME. 10 AM UPDATE... MAIN CONCERN HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL AS KINEMATIC FIELDS REMAIN MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE WX SUSTAINMENT. THAT SAID...MAIN LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WHICH IS VIEWABLE ON LATEST VIS SATELLITE PICS THIS MORNING WHICH WILL UNDOUBTEDLY PREVENT MAX TEMPS FROM WARMING TO THEIR MAX POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS NOW SHOWING AN AREA OF SHWRS/EMBEDDED THUNDER APPROACHING THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND 1-HR GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT ACTIVITY. WITH ANY CLEARING DISPLACED WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST NEAR PITTSBURGH...ITS HARD AT THIS POINT TO SURMISE THAT REGION WILL SEE ANY APPRECIABLE CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION PRIOR TO FROPA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THAT BEING SAID...WILL LEAVE A SLGT CHC THUNDER MENTION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA. CURRENT THINKING IS APPROACHING PREFERENTIAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER WILL LIKELY STABILIZE THE LOW- LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EVEN FURTHER WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY SEVERE WX DEVELOPMENT IN CHECK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH MOISTURE POOLING (LOW 50 DEW POINTS) ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH BUT WITH MAX MID/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING REMAIN DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH...OVERALL SEVERE WX THREAT LOOKS VERY MARGINAL AT THIS TIME. 7 AM UPDATE... FORECAST DETAILS TWEAKED WHERE NEEDED...EXPECTATIONS AND CONCERNS FOR FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING REMAIN THE SAME AS DISCUSSED BELOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WE HAVE HAD A MILD NIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW. MANY LOCATIONS NOT ALREADY IN THE 50S WILL BE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH CATSKILLS/POCONOS EASTWARD WILL HOLD ON TO 40S THE LONGEST DUE TO MARINE-INFLUENCED LAYER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STORMS THAT BLEW UP ACROSS MISSOURI/ILLINOIS AND HEADING INTO INDIANA...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY. FOR NOW...STILL DRY. MODELS EARLIER STRUGGLED WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE...BUT LATEST RUNS HAVE CAUGHT ON TO IT AND AS PER VORTICITY FIELDS BRING THE WAVE THROUGH OUR REGION 15Z-19Z. AT THIS TIME I FEEL THERE WILL BE A FAIR BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING IN ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WAVE...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST ZONES...WHICH WILL RUN WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THE CLOUDS FROM THIS WAVE WILL PROBABLY FURTHER INHIBIT THE ALREADY LIMITED INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALSO...THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...40-55 KTS AT 850MB...FROM EFFECTIVELY MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THAT BEING SAID...STILL EXPECT A PRETTY GOOD BREEZE TODAY...INCLUDING GUSTS REACHING 20-30 MPH IN NEPA /ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVS/ AND 25-35 MPH IN CENTRAL NY. LAKE PLAIN AND SYRACUSE IN PARTICULAR COULD HAVE SOME FAIRLY STRONG DOWNSLOPING GUSTS...PERHAPS ONE OR TWO AROUND 40 MPH BUT NOT FREQUENTLY BEYOND THAT SO NO WIND ADVISORY SEEMS WARRANTED. MODELS ARE WELL CONVERGED ON TIMING OF SURFACE FRONT...AGAIN JUST SLIGHTLY DELAYED FROM PRIOR MODEL RUNS...FROM CORNING-SYRACUSE AREA 21Z...TO TOWANDA-BINGHAMTON-ONEONTA 00Z...AND THEN EXITING SOUTHEAST OF MONTICELLO-SCRANTON BY AROUND 03Z OR SO. INSTABILITY WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL...AN AXIS RANGING FROM VERY LITTLE TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OR SO IN THE MODELS. I HAVE FOCUSED OUR SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER TO DIRECTLY WITH THE FRONT ITSELF WHERE THERE IS GREAT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE MAY INTERFERE WITH HEATING...PROBABLY AT LEAST SOMEWHAT INHIBITING INSTABILITY FROM BEING FULLY REALIZED. WE ARE CURRENTLY NOT PEGGED FOR SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...IN FACT NOT EVEN IN THE GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK AS OF 430 AM...BUT THINGS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY BECAUSE SHOULD CONVECTION GET WELL ORGANIZED ALONG THE FRONT...A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR COULD LEAD TO STRONG GUSTS. 0-1 KM SHEAR ALONG FRONT IN THE NAM IS 30-40 KTS. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GETTING A BIT PAST 1.25 INCHES ALONG THE FRONT...THINGS WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY ENOUGH CONSIDERING THE FLOW ALOFT AND PACE OF FRONT...TO LIMIT AREAL AVERAGE RAIN AMOUNTS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN NEPA AND BETWEEN QUARTER AND HALF INCH IN CENTRAL NY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 445 AM UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY TAKES CHARGE WEDNESDAY...WITH SHALLOW POOL OF COOLER STABLE POST-FRONTAL AIR. A DECENT DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL NEAR CLIMATOLOGY IF NOT EVEN A TOUCH ABOVE. FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH FOR MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO HANG AROUND FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES. TOWARDS LAKE PLAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY...PLENTY OF SUN. FRONTAL ZONE LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS BUT ONLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS DUE TO UPPER RIDGING AND THUS LACK OF LIFT. THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO WARM RETURN FLOW AGAIN THURSDAY...WITH EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S /WARMEST FOR LAKE PLAIN TO SYRACUSE COURTESY OF DOWNSLOPING/. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES SURGE INTO THE 560S DECAMETER RANGE. THURSDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY...BUT WITH A CAVEAT. WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALREADY SHIFTING EAST THURSDAY...WE GET ON EDGE OF QUICK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH MAY BE RIDDLED WITH LITTLE SHORTWAVES. ODDLY ENOUGH...THE 00Z NAM EVEN SUGGESTS ONE OF THOSE WAVES IMPACTING THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER THURSDAY EVENING WITH SHOWERS COUPLED WITH INSTABILITY. 06Z NAM THOUGH IS BACKING OFF THIS IDEA...WHILE OTHER MODELS KEEP INSTABILITY MUCH FARTHER WEST DUE TO FAIRLY STABLE LOW LEVELS FROM EARLIER MARINE-INFLUENCED LAYER ADVECTING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. MAINLY 50S FOR LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST...AS WE AWAIT NEXT PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STILL BE WELL TO THE WEST /BUT INBOUND FOR FRIDAY/. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 3 PM MON UPDATE... ONLY MINIMAL CHGS MADE TO THE GRIDS ATTM...AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATN IN THE MODELS REMAINS SIMILAR. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH EARLY IN THE PD IS A FAIRLY STG AND PROGRESSIVE COLD FRNT...SLATED TO COME THROUGH NY/PA BY FRI EVE. WE'LL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS THIS PD FOR SHWRS. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...OWING TO THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION AHD OF THE FRNT. FOR NOW...WE'VE THROWN IN A CHC OF TSTMS...TO GO ALG WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHWRS. AFTERWARDS...DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER IN...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS OUT OF S-CNTRL CANADA. A FEW -SHRA/SPRINKLES COULD LINGER FRI NGT...PERHAPS EVEN INTO EARLY SAT...UNDERNEATH THE SRN END OF AN UPR-LVL TROUGH. OTHWS...THOUGH...THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND COOL...FROM THIS EARLY VANTAGE PT. PREV DISC... THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A JET DIGGING A SHARP TROF INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, BRINGING MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS TO THE CENTRAL U.S. AN EASTERN RIDGE DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE, WITH AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE FROM IL/MO TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. STORMS RIDING UP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PULL WARM/MOIST AIR INTO NY/PA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SHOWERY, MILD PATTERN AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A GREAT LAKES CYCLONE INTENSIFIES OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY, WHILE AN ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS. PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AS A RESULT THROUGH NY/PA. PRECIPITATION TIMING AND CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE A LOT TO SAY ABOUT MAX TEMPS COME FRIDAY. 925MB TEMPS OF 15-17C ARE PROGGED BY ECMWF TO EXTEND THROUGH UPSTATE NY BY 18Z. CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO SUPPRESS MAXES, BUT ANY BREAKS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO PUSH THROUGH THE 70S AND ENHANCE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. UNTIL INSTABILITY CAN BE BETTER PROGGED, WILL STICK TO FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND JUST A CHANCE OF THUNDER. COOLER/DRIER AIR FOLLOWS THE COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 18Z TUE UPDATE... MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME THIS AFTN (LWR CIGS/SCTD -SHRA). A NARROW LINE/BAND OF SHRA IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY A FROPA EARLY THIS EVE (23Z-03Z)...WITH SOME IFR PSBL AT KBGM/KITH...WHILE MVFR SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION ELSEWHERE. BEHIND THE FRNT...LWR CLDS WILL PERSIST FOR A TIME (AGN IFR PROBABLE ON THE HILLTOPS AT KBGM/KITH...WITH MVFR ELSEWHERE). LTR TNT...DRIER AIR WILL PUSH DOWN FROM THE NW...WITH AT LEAST PTL CLEARING ANTICIPATED...AND A RETURN TO VFR AREA-WIDE. VFR SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z WED. GUSTY SRLY WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVE (UP TO 20-25 KT)...WILL SHIFT INTO THE NW AND N OVERNIGHT AND WED. .OUTLOOK... WED NGT THROUGH SUN...MOSTLY VFR. LWR CIGS PSBL THU/FRI AM...AND RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM SHRA/TSRA FRI AFTN/EVE. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...CMG/MDP SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...DJP/MLJ AVIATION...MLJ/MSE  FXUS61 KBGM 222312 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 712 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS LATER TUESDAY AS SHOWERS DIMINISH. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 7 PM UPDATE... REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER WAVE EJECTING EAST FROM THE LWR OHIO VLY. BULK OF ACTIVITY SO FAR HAS BEEN SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER AND HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE HIGH LIKELY CATEGORY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FCST REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS NEXT PV ANOMALY UPSTREAM CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. WITH FAIRLY WEAK WINDS ALOFT...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE LOW WITH MAIN CONCERNS FOCUSED ON LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS PWAT VALUES APPROACH 2" PER LATEST BLENDED TPW SATELLITE GRAPHICS. SO FAR A FEW 2+" REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED BUT NO REPORTS OF ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS THUS FAR. BASED ON REPORTS...CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THAT RADAR IS UNDERESTIMATING RAINFALL TO SOME DEGREE. IN ANY EVENT...A FEW MORE FLS STATEMENTS APPEAR LIKELY AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. 300 PM UPDATE... SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH IS RIDDLED WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES...AND ONE OF THEM IS MOVING IN ALONG WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING BLOSSOM OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WAVE WILL ZIP THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING. POPS UPDATED ACCORDINGLY...HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY PLACED WITH WAVE PASSAGES. VERY LITTLE FLOW IN LOWEST 4 KM AND CAPES GENERALLY UNDER 1000 J/KG SO ONLY NON-SEVERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS. MAIN UPPER WAVE SET TO PASS THROUGH LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. DECENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GET TO ABOUT AN INCH- AND-THREE-QUARTERS OR SO. THOUGH JET SUPPORT WILL NOT BE THAT GREAT...THE UPPER WAVE THAT PASSES ALONG WITH LIFTING WARM FRONT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GENERATING A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN. I UPGRADED POPS...LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL...FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...AND WENT WITH THE HIGHER QPF AS OFFERED BY HPC TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS INCLUDES 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES ALONG POCONOS TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY...AND BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES FOR REMAINDER OF NEPA TO CATSKILLS...LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTHWEST. 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA IS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES...AND MUCH IS MORE THAN 2.0 INCHES. OF COURSE...BULK OF OUR RAIN WILL BE GENERALLY SPREAD OUT OVER THE COURSE OF 12 HOURS. WITH WEAK STEERING BECAUSE OF LACK OF SHEAR...LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...RECENT DRIER PATTERN AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION OF MIDSUMMER WILL ALLOW GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN TO BE ABSORBED...THUS NOT EXPECTING FLOOD PROBLEMS. BRIEF URBANIZED/POOR DRAINAGE WATER PROBLEMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION UNDER THE HEAVIEST CELLS...OTHERWISE WE SHOULD BE FINE. UPPER WAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL START SHIFTING EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWED BY COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE EVOLVING THROUGH THE AREA. THOUGH MAIN RAIN WILL BE IN THE MORNING...AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 115 PM UPDATE... SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL NOT FINISHING PASSING THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT UPPER WAVE AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SHUNT EAST WELL AHEAD OF IT...SO LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH. A LAYER OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION COULD SQUEEZE OUT A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER FOR SOME SPOTS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER SCATTERING REMAINING CLOUDS OUT WITH TIME. QUITE A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO EVEN LESS THAN 10 CELSIUS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING WELL UNDER AN INCH. SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER SOUTHWARD COULD GET UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...BUT MAJORITY OF THE AREA ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...THE COOLEST DAY THIS MONTH OR WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF IT. EITHER WAY...CHILLIEST NIGHT OF THE MONTH APPEARS EN ROUTE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND DECOUPLED WIND SHOULD YIELD AMPLE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR LOWS IN THE 50S AREAWIDE. UPPER 40S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN A FEW OF THE COLDEST SPOTS /SHELTERED VALLEYS/ OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO KEEP IN CONTROL THURSDAY...THOUGH GRADIENT OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IS NOT FAR TO OUR SOUTHEAST /ESPECIALLY THE NAM/. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE POCONOS PA TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY...I HAVE REMOVED MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES FROM THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...ANOTHER FAIRLY COOL DAY COMPARED TO THE REST OF WHAT HAS BEEN A VERY WARM MONTH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 3 PM MON UPDATE... AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS BROAD TROUGHING AND SW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MULTIPLE VORT MAXES WILL TRAVEL AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND EJECT NORTHEASTWARD RESULTING IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODELS PROJECT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE REGION. AS THE DRY AIR FUNNELS IN FROM THE WEST...A BRIEF DRY PERIOD MAY RETURN TO THE AREA. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 130 PM EDT UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS. DECIDED TO PUT A TEMPO FOR TSRA FOR KAVP...HOWEVER STORMS WILL BE AT LEAST POSSIBLE OVER ALL TAFS BUT CONFIDENCE IS GREATEST AT KAVP. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE TONIGHT AFTER 00Z WITH MVFR CIGS. VISIBILITIES MAY FALL TO IFR LATE TONIGHT AS A BREAK FROM SHOWERS IS VERY POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT REDUCED VIS IN TAFS. .OUTLOOK... TUE AFTERNOON/TUE NGT...SCATTERED MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WED/THU/...VFR FRI.SAT...CHANCE OF SCATTERED MVFR SHRA/TSRA && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...CMG/MDP SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...KAH AVIATION...KAH  FXUS61 KBGM 260732 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 332 AM EDT MON AUG 26 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... INITIAL DECAYING MCS BRINGING -SHRA TO THE REGION AND THERE ARE SVRL MORE S/WV'S UPSTREAM. ONE NEAR LAKE HURON WHICH WILL SPREAD MORE SHRA/TSRA INTO CNTRL NY THIS MRNG...AND ANOTHER BACK NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA LATER TDA AND THIS EVNG. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE PSBLTY OF SCT ACTIVITY BETWEEN THESE TWO S/WV'S. INCRSNG MSTR ADVECTING IN ON WNW FLOW WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES INCREASING TO NEARLY 2 INCHES...WITH MBE VECTORS AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW (IN ADDITION TO DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS) SUGGESTING POTNL FOR +RA WITH TRAINING OF CELLS PSBL. WIND FIELDS ARE A BIT STRONGER THAN FCST YDA...APRCHNG 30 KTS AT 700 MB WHICH IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SVR. SELS HAS AREA IN A "SEE TEXT" WHICH LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT. WE WILL SEE INCREASNGLY DIVERGENT UPR LVL FLOW AS 30O MB UPR LVL JET DIVES SEWD ACRS THE ERN GTLAKES THIS AFTN...AND GOOD 500 MB HGT FALLS WILL BE CNTRD OVER CNTRL NY BY 00Z. NAM LOOKS A LTL OVERDONE ON CAPES...XPCT MAX VALUES TO APRCH 750-1000 J/KG...SPCLY IF WE MANAGE TO GET SOME BREAKS OF SUN. WE HAVE LIKELY TO CAT POPS FOR TDA AND THIS EVNG GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...AND HAVE ADDED POTNL FOR +RA WITH TSRA. ACTIVITY SHUD BE MOVG SEWD AND OUT OF THE RGN LATER THIS EVNG. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... NAM/GFS PROFILES SUGGESTING LOW CLDS ON TUE MRNG. SOME SUNSHINE PSBL AFER THESE BURN OFF. THEREFORE WE KEPT TUE MRNG DRY BUT THEN LEANED TWDS THE FASTER EURO/GFS MDLS WHICH INDICATE THE NXT S/WV SPREADING SHRA/TSRA INTO WRN ZONES DURING THE AFTN. GFS/EURO IN AGREEMENT WITH SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE ERN GTLAKES ACRS SRN NY OR NRN PA. NAM ALSO SHOWS A SIMILAR TRACK BUT IS SLOWER...WHILE THE GEM APPEARS TOO FAR N WITH THE LOW TRACK. BROUGHT CHC POPS INTO AREAS W OF I-81 ON TUE AFTN AND ALL AREAS ON TUE NGT. AS THE LOW TRACKS ACRS PA..INVERTED TROF-TYPE FEATURE XTNDG N OF THE LOW SHUD TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA ACRS CNTRL NY. WE MAY HAVE TO INCRS POPS TO LIKELY (CAT?) ACRS PA FOR TUE NGT/WED WITH LATER FCST PCKGS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. THE BROAD...AND HOT LATE SEASON RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CNTRL CONUS IS STILL EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH REGIONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE WELL INTO THE MID 80S OVER NEXT WEEKEND. THE ADVERTISED FRONTAL SYSTEM...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A COMPLEX SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT ON THE BOUNDARY...IS STILL FORECAST TO BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE FORECAST WILL STILL FEATURE DECREASING POPS WITH TIME INTO THURSDAY...THEN WITH THE BROAD RIDGE IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT AND NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS RAIN FREE AND WARMER AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 06Z MON UPDATE... VFR SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTN...WITH JUST SOME UNRESTRICTED -SHRA/SPRINKLES ACRS THE RGN...SPCLY EARLY THIS MRNG (THROUGH 12-15Z). THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVE PD...MORE ORGANIZED SHWRS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY ACRS NY'S SRN TIER AND NE PA (IMPACTING MOSTLY KELM/KITH/KBGM/KAVP). THUS...WE'LL CARRY TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR RESTRICTIONS AND TSRA AT THESE FOUR SITES...WITH A PROB30 GROUP FOR NOW AT KSYR/KRME. LTR THIS EVE/OVERNIGHT...AS A BNDRY COMES THROUGH FROM THE NW...PCPN SHOULD COME TO AN END. HOWEVER...SOME LWR CIGS ARE FORESEEN...SO MVFR RESTRICTIONS WERE CARRIED AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KAVP...STARTING IN THE 03-05Z TIME FRAME. SFC WINDS MAINLY AOB 5 KT EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW TO 5-10 KT BY 12-15Z...WITH W TO NW WINDS INCREASING FURTHER...AND BCMG GUSTY THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL SHIFT INTO THE N AND NE BY LATER THIS EVE (BY 00-03Z). OUTLOOK... TUE...MAINLY VFR. WED...AT LEAST BRIEF RESTRICTIONS PSBL...IN SHRA/TSRA. THU AND FRI...MAINLY VFR ONCE AGN. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ LONG TERM...JAB AVIATION...MLJ/MSE  FXUS61 KBGM 181018 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 618 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE TRENDING WARMER EACH AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING SOME SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 115 AM UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE PASSING OVERHEAD WITH VERY WEAK FLOW AND CLEAR SKY HAS YIELDED IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE AIR MASS HAS MODERATED SOMEWHAT SINCE 24 HOURS AGO...SO MOST LOCATIONS ARE A FEW DEGREES MILDER COMPARED TO THEN...HOWEVER PATCHY FROST WILL PROBABLY STILL OCCUR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS FOR AT LEAST THE USUAL COLDER SPOTS MOST PRONE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. ELMIRA AND NORWICH AS OF 1 AM HAD ALREADY REACHED THE UPPER 30S. ELMIRA WAS ALSO ALREADY DEVELOPING VALLEY FOG...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THIS SCENARIO /ESPECIALLY VALLEYS OF TWIN TIERS/. SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF COURSE REMAINS IN CHARGE OF OUR WEATHER...BUT IT WILL BE CENTERED TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ANTICYCLONIC MOTION AROUND IT WILL GIVE US LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW...WHICH ALONG WITH FULL SUNSHINE WILL FURTHER MODERATE TEMPERATURES TODAY. SO DESPITE THE COOL START WE ARE STILL EXPECTING HIGHS TO REACH RIGHT AROUND CLIMATOLOGY. RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT SHOULD STILL BE DECENT...YIELDING LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 30S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS SUCH AS VALLEYS OF CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. ALSO...PATCHY FOG AGAIN IN VALLEYS OF TWIN TIERS/WESTERN CATSKILLS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 330 AM UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...WHICH ALONG WITH THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM IN WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL CAUSE MORE PRONOUNCED RETURN FLOW. THE SSW WIND AT SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL WARM TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY /TO ROUGHLY 8-10 DEGREES ABOVE BY FRIDAY/. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SLOW PROGRESS OF INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM...THOUGH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH MAY TRY TO GET INTO THE MIX LATE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERALL I DELAYED POPS KEEPING THINGS DRY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD UNTIL MAINLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD WHEN SOME SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL FINALLY ENTER THE PICTURE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 4 AM WED UPDATE... LTL CHG MADE TO THE CURRENT SET OF EXTENDED GRIDS...OTHER THAN TO UP POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE FOR SAT/SAT NGT (AROUND 60%)...AS MODEL TIMING REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE MAIN SYSTEMS TO WATCH THIS WEEKEND ARE AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT...ANY POTENTIAL TROP SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WRN GULF...AND SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT OF ITS MOISTURE SHIELD. AS OF THE 00Z WED MODEL CYCLE...NWP CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT ALTHOUGH THE FRNT MAY WELL DECELERATE SAT INTO SUN...IT SHOULD AT LEAST KEEP MOVG TWDS THE E AND SE. THIS WOULD BE A GOOD THING...AS THERE SEEMS TO BE ROOM FOR GOMEX/TROP MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED NEWD ALG THE FRNTL ZN. FOR NOW...MODEL QPF'S ARE GENERALLY IN THE 0.5-1.5" RANGE OVER A 24-HR PD SAT INTO EARLY SUN...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BE HANDLED WITHOUT PROBLEM. HOWEVER...WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP WATCHING THIS SCENARIO OVER THE COMING DAYS...TO SEE IF THINGS SLOW DOWN MORE...OR IF A TROP CONNECTION APPEARS MORE CERTAIN. ONE OR BOTH OF THESE FACTORS COULD SPELL HEAVIER RAINFALL AMTS. EARLY NEXT WEEK (MON-TUE)...UNCERTAINTY STARTS TO GROW...AS THE GFS CONTS TO SHOW DRY WX...WHILE THE EC HAS TRENDED WETTER BY TUE...WITH A SLOWER MORE CUTOFF EVOLUTION TO SRN STREAM ENERGY ACRS THE SERN U.S. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...WE'LL STICK WITH CONTINUITY AND KEEP THINGS PCPN-FREE. NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABV CLIMO TEMPS FOR LATE SEP (HIGHS IN THE 60S-LWR 70S) ARE FORESEEN. AS ALLUDED TO IN THE PREV DISC...THE MAIN SHOT OF COOLER AIR POST-FROPA IS PROGGED TO GO WELL N OF NY/PA THIS TIME ARND. PREV DISC... LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FNT OVER THE WEEKEND BUT REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. LATEST RUNS FCST THE FNTL PASSAGE ARND 18Z SAT WITH A MOD RAINFALL OF A ABT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. FNT DOES HAVE A CONNECTION TO THE TROPICS AND THE WEAKENING TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE WRN GULF...BUT PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FNT WILL LIMIT RISK OF HEAVY RAIN. FNT IS CONNECTED TO A CLSD LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY THAT REALLY ISN/T DIGGING...SO CAA BHD THE FNT NOT ALL THAT STRONG...AND AIR MODIFIES AS IT FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH ON SUN. MON MRNG WILL BE CHILLY...BUT WITH SFC HIPRES WELL TO THE NORTH AND THE UPR RDG BLDG OVER THE LAKES... MRNG WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS RECENT MRNGS. && .AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 12Z WED UPDATE... FOR THE MOST PART...VFR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z THU...AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH DRY AIR STAYS IN CONTROL. THE ONE MAIN EXCEPTION IS KELM. RADIATION FOG THIS MRNG WILL BURN OFF BY 13-14Z. FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM AGN LATER TNT INTO EARLY THU...WITH IFR PROBABLE AFTER 08Z THU. OUTLOOK... THU-FRI... OTHER THAN PSBL EARLY MRNG FOG AT KELM...VFR. SAT...SAT NGT...AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY SUN... THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA. SUN... IMPROVING TO VFR WITH TIME. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...DGM/MLJ AVIATION...DJP/MLJ  FXUS61 KBGM 030737 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 337 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS EVENING. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GTLKS REGION WILL SWING A PRE-FRONTAL TROF INTO CNY/NEPA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TONIGHT. BEST MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND SYSTEM DYNAMICS WILL BE AT PLAY ALONG THE LEADING TROF TODAY. RADARS SHOW BAND OF SHOWERS ABOUT TO ENTER WRN NY AND WRN PA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS...ESPECIALLY SMALLER SCALE MESO MODELS...HAVE VERY GOOD TIMING TRENDS...AND SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FROM ABOUT 14Z-20Z TODAY. THIS WAS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE. BEST INSTBILITY WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR AREA TODAY...AS MID LVL CLOUD SHIELD WILL LIMIT THE NECESSARY SUNSHINE ACROSS THE WEST...BUT ALLOW TIME FOR HEATING IN THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE MARGINAL AND SEVERE THREAT IS LOW. OF SOMEWHAT GREATER CONCERN IS THE HEAVY DOWNPOUR POTENTIAL...AS PWAT VALUES ARE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AND WIND FIELDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK ALOFT. MBE VECTORS ARE ALSO SMALL...BUT WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE LESS THAN IDEAL AND OVERALL SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE...SO NOT WORRIED ABOUT FLASH FLOODING...BUT ANY HEALTHY THUNDERSTORM COULD RAIN HARD FOR A WHILE. WILL MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO...WITH THE IDEA THAT STORMS IN URBAN AREAS WILL GARNER THE MOST ATTENTION. TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT STILL LIKELY ABLE TO REACH THE LOW 80S. NOT EXPECTING A SMOOTH TEMPERATURE CURVE TODAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAXES WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ROCKET AFTER THE RAIN AND CLOUDS PASS LATE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... MODELS SUGGEST THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT TO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY MORNING. WILL LEAVE SOME NOMINAL POPS FOR ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT IN THIS TYPE PATTERN THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OFTEN NOT THE ACTIVE FEATURE...ESPECIALLY WITH MODEL RH FIELDS AND INDIVIDUAL SOUNDING FORECASTS INDICATING SIGNIFICANT DRYING. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO POPS TO SPEED UP THE DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT WITH A RAIN FREE DAY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. THEN...MAIN UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL CONTINUE TO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THERE ARE VARYING DIFFERENCES IN THESE SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS TO FOCUS MOST OF ANY RAIN ACTIVITY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA...HOWEVER THE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS LENDS ITSELF TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADIENT OF MID-RANGE POPS ACROSS OUR AREA...AS THE NAM AND ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST A FAIRLY DAMP PERIOD LATER WEDS NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER SOUTH AND SUGGESTS THE SYR-UCA MIGHT EVEN MISS OUT COMPLETELY. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO RULE ANYTHING OUT...AND TOO MUCH TO ALSO GO GANGBUSTERS WITH HIGH POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE'S MENTION OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST EVERYWHERE...SO WAITING ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR SO TO REFINE WHO GETS DRENCHED IS PRUDENT ATTM. WE SHOULD GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS TO TAKE HOLD FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWED A BLEND OF MOS AND MODEL 2M TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MDLS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH PRES BUILDING EWD INTO THE RGN ON FRI...MOVG OFF THE CST ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER NICE WEEKEND FOR CNTRL NY AND NE PA. APRCHNG WMFNT MAY BRING A CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA ACRS WRN ZONES BY LATE SUNDAY AFTN. JUST SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO MED RNG FCST BASED ON LATEST MDL TRENDS/HPC GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR XPCTD TO PREVAIL EARLY THIS MRNG...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME 5SM BR TWDS DAYBREAK. OTRW...XPCT A BKN LINE OF SHRA/TSRA TO CROSS THE FCST AREA AROUND MIDDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FNTL TROF. ATTM WE ARE TIMING THE BEST CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA FROM 16-18Z WRN SITES ( SYR/ITH/ELM) TO 18-20Z ACRS THE EAST (AVP). THERE IS POTNL FOR SCT SHRA EARLY THIS MRNG AND PSBLY LATE TDA AS A CDFNT APRCHS BUT FOR NOW WE JUST SELECTED THE MOST FVRBL TIME FRAME FOR PCPN. ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT/DSPT BY THIS EVNG. XPCT PRIMARILY VFR THIS EVNG...SOME MDLS PROFILES SHOW DVLPMNT OF STRATUS LAYER AT A FEW SITES BUT GNRLY AFTER 06Z. WINDS THIS MRNG LIGHT AND GNRLY SRLY OR SWLY...BECMG SWLY 10-15 KTS THIS MRNG...AND W TO NW 5 KTS OR SO TNGT. OUTLOOK... TUE NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR IN PATCHY STRATUS. WED...VFR. THUR...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS PSBL DUE TO SHRA/TSRA. FRI/SAT/SUN...MOSTLY VFR WITH VLY FOG POSSIBLE AT ELM DURING THE PREDAWN HRS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JAB NEAR TERM...JAB SHORT TERM...JAB LONG TERM... AVIATION...  FXUS61 KBGM 080527 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 127 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND MILD AIR TO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE OUT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE NEW YORK PENNSYLVANIA BORDER SOUTHWARD. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 730 PM UPDATE...SOME HI CLDS DRFTG IN THIS EVE OTRW CLR SKIES OVER THE AREA. OTR THAN A FEW MINOR TEMPS ADJUSTMENTS...GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE. 130 PM UPDATE... ALL'S QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT (WELL, EASTERN FRONT). HIPRES WL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVRNGT WITH SKIES CLRNG THIS EVENING AND WINDS BCMG NEAR CALM. THIS WL SET THE STAGE FOR RADN'L VLY FOG TWD MRNG AS WINDS DECOUPLE. CURRENT GRIDS HV THIS WELL IN HAND AND SEE NO REASON TO CHG GRID AT THIS POINT. ONLY QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AND HV ADDED IN DENSE FOG TO DEEPER VLYS WHERE IT APPEARS MORE LKLY TO EXIST. OUTSIDE OF FOGGY AREAS AFT 08Z, SKIES WL RMN CLR TONIGHT. THIS WL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DOWN TWD 50F WITH DEEPER VLYS POSSIBLY DIPPING INTO THE U40S. THIS WUD PUT OVRNGT MINS A FEW DEGREES ABV THIS MRNGS TEMPS AS HIGHS WL BE MUCH WRMR THAN YDA. WINDS WL EVENTUALLY BCM SRLY TWD DAYBREAK AS NEXT SYSTEM MVS INTO THE OH VLY AFT 09Z. THIS SYSTEM IS PRESENTLY PRODUCING CONVECTION IN THE MID-MS VLY AS STRONG WV ROTATES ACRS. ANY BLOWOFF FM CONVECTION WL BE BLOCKED BY UL RIDGE WHICH WL KEEP SKIES CLR INTO MID-MRNG TOMORROW. AS SYSTEM PROGRESSES INTO WRN PA BY LATE AFTN PCPN WL VRY GRADUALLY INCRS FOR WRN ZONES. DIFFERENCES EXIST IN LATEST MODELS WITH GFS SLOWER WITH DEEPER MOISTURE THAN NAM IS BY ABOUT 3 HRS. BASED ON RECENT EVENTS NAM SEEMS TO BE TOO DEEP WITH LOW-LVL MOISTURE, THUS HV SIDED MORE TWD GFS WITH JUST SLGT POPS INTO AREAS WEST OF A PENN YAN-CORNING LINE BY 00Z. SKIES WL BEGIN TO CLD UP DRG THE AFTN BUT THIS WL BE ENUF TIME TO ALLOW FULL MIXING UP NR 800MB. THIS WUD YIELD HIGHS IN THE L/M 80S AREA-WIDE TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM WL START OFF AN ACTIVE WEEK FOR THE AREA WITH OFF AND ON RAIN CHCS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 3 PM UPDATE... LOW PRESSURE WL SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS INTO THE AREA TWD MIDNIGHT SUN NGT. AS IT DOES SO, BEST RAIN CHCS LOOK TO BE SQUASHED TO THE SOUTH DRG THE OVRNGT AS HIPRES BUILDS IN FM CANADA. SIMILAR TO THIS PAST WEEK THERE WL LKLY BE A GRADIENT BTWN RAIN-NO RAIN AND AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO HARD TO PREDICT WHERE EXACTLY THAT WL BE, THUS WL KEEP POPS RANGING FM 50 ACRS THE POCONOS TO NR 30 FOR THE SRN TUG HILL. DEPENDING ON TRACK OF LOW WL DETERMINE WHERE THUNDER WL OCCUR. RIGHT NOW, PER ALL 12Z MODELS, IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED BTWN 00Z AND 06Z WEAKENING AFT THIS POINT. THUS BTWN 06Z AND 12Z SUNDAY WL TAPER IT DOWN TO JUST SHOWERS. MIN TEMPS FOR MON MRNG WL BOTTOM OUT ARND 60F. PCPN CHCS BCM SPURIOUS AT BEST WITH GFS AND EURO INDICATING A FRONTAL BNDRY DROPPING SOUTH AND LEADING TO AN INCREASED CHC FOR SHOWERS 06Z-12Z ACRS THE FINGER LKS. HWVR NAM SHOVES BNDRY SO FAR NORTH INTO CANADA ON STRONG SRLY FLOW IT DOES NOT GENERATE ANY QPF OVRNGT UNTIL WE GET INTO DIURNAL HTG DRG THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THRU THE END OF THE SHORT TERM WL JUST CARRY CHC POPS THRU THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 2 PM UPDATE... A DISTURBANCE IN THE JET STREAM WINDS ALOFT NOW OVER NORTHERN IDAHO WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN UNSETTLED, AND IN MANY CASES, SOME WELCOME UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEK. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EAST AND BY TUESDAY EVOLVE INTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL US. THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN UP OUR ATMOSPHERE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT, AND ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. HIGH CHANCE POPS (50%) LOOK GOOD FOR NOW FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD. WITH THAT SAID IN THESE SITUATIONS AN ALL DAY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED, RATHER IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE A DIURNALLY DRIVEN EVENT WITH RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE DAY OUR CHANCES WILL BE THE LOWEST. AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY, PWATS (A GOOD MEASURE OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE), WILL BE BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75". WITH THAT IN MIND WHILE THE RAIN WILL BE WELCOMED IN MANY AREAS, IT MAY COME DOWN HEAVY AT TIMES. RAIN CHANCES MAY BECOME ENHANCED LATER FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN TROF/COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. DESPITE BEING UNSETTLED, WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TEMPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 06Z UPDATE... EXCEPT FOR TYPICAL VALLEY FOG CONCERNS AT KELM DURING PREDAWN HOURS...VFR EXPECTED AREAWIDE THROUGH TODAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE 15-25 KFT AGL RANGE. THEN THIS EVENING...MOISTURE POOLED ALONG A PASSING UPPER WAVE WILL CAUSE DEVELOPING SHOWERS TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST INTO THE REGION. EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS YET AT THIS TIME /BEST CHANCES KELM-KITH WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR INSTABILITY/. I HAVE PLACED MVFR PROB30 AND TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR THE INCOMING SHOWERS HOWEVER...AND EVEN PREDOMINANT AT KELM-KITH BY 03Z-04Z. BACK TO THE PREDAWN FOG AT KELM THIS MORNING...FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 25 KFT AGL ARE ALREADY ATTEMPTING TO MOVE IN. THIS PREVENTS THE EXPECTED IFR-LIFR FOG FROM BEING A TOTAL SLAM DUNK...BUT OVERALL ENOUGH HOLES IN CLOUD COVER AND NARROW ENOUGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSION MAKES IT STILL THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO...SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO. AFTER LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM WIND PREDAWN...WINDS TODAY GENERALLY SSE TO SSW LESS THAN 10 KTS...THEN VARIABLE OR LIGHT SE TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... LATE SUN NGT THROUGH THU...DRY AND VFR MOST OF THE TIME...BUT SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA AS WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS. THU-THU NGT...RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA AS MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM/PVN NEAR TERM...DGM/PVN SHORT TERM...PVN LONG TERM...HEDEN AVIATION...MDP  FXUS61 KBGM 111957 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 357 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL COMPLEX WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF WET WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 330 PM WED UPDATE... AS OF LATE THIS AFTN...THE SURFACE WARM FRNT WAS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF OUR WRN ZNS...SNAKING IN A NEARLY N TO S AXIS THROUGH THE WRN FINGER LKS RGN...THEN DOWN THROUGH WRN PA. SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACRS WRN NY/PA...BUT MUCH OF CNY/NE PA REMAINS SOCKED IN WITH LWR CLDS...AND EVEN SOME HIGHER ELEVATION DENSE FOG OVER THE POCONOS. THE ABV DESCRIBED PATN SHOULD REMAIN STAGNANT OVERNIGHT...AS A SFC RIDGE STAYS ANCHORED ALG THE NEW ENG COAST...AND A CLOSED UPR LOW ONLY SLOWLY LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES RGN. THIS BASICALLY MEANS OVC SKIES...ALG WITH HIT AND MISS SHWRS THROUGH THE NGT...FOR AT LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THE FA. FARTHER W...CLOSER TO THE ACTUAL WARM FRNT AND S/WV ENERGY ALOFT...SHWRS SHOULD BE MORE NUMEROUS...ALG WITH ISOLD THUNDER. THERE ARE DEFINITELY SYNOPTIC-SCALE SIGNALS THAT POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HVY RAIN ACRS OUR WRN ZNS OVERNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE ALL DVLPS A STRENGTHENING LOW-LVL JET OVERNIGHT FROM THE SW...WHICH SHOULD TRANSPORT MOIST INITIALLY UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE ABV MENTIONED WARM/STATIONARY FRNT. ALSO...PWATS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH (GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 1.5-1.75"). ALTHOUGH CORFIDI VECTORS OF 15-25 KT SUGGESTS INDIVIDUAL CELLS SHOULD MOVE ALG...THERE IS SOME PSBLTY OF REPEAT CONVECTION (HINTED AT BY SOME OUR HI-RES GUIDANCE IN/NEAR THE FINGER LKS RGN OVERNIGHT). THUS...WE'VE ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALIZED HVY RAIN/FLOODING IN THE HWO. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... 345 PM WED UPDATE... ONLY SLOW OVERALL SYSTEM PROGRESSION IS ANTICIPATED THU-FRI...INSURING A CONTINUATION OF WET WX. FOR THU...THE SFC WARM FRNT TRIES TO EDGE FARTHER E...BUT IS NOT LIKELY TO MAKE SIG PROGRESS. THUS...THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AND COOL (HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S-LWR 70S). SHWRS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE PREVALENT THU...AND PROBABLY RIGHT THROUGH THU NGT...AS THE MAIN L/W TROUGH AXIS TO OUR W EDGES CLOSER TO THE AREA...AND WE GET INTO THE ENTRANCE RGN OF AN UPR- LVL JET STREAK OVER ONT/QUE. ALTHOUGH ISOLD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED...THE INSTAB STILL LOOKS MUTED AGN THU AFTN FOR MOST OF THE RGN (ML CAPE OF 300 J/KG OR LESS)...WITH A BIT MORE DESTABILIZATION LIKELY OVER THE FINGER LKS RGN. ON FRI...THE MAIN COLD FRNT AT THE SFC IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...AND ULTIMATELY SWEEP THROUGH CNY/NE PA DURG THE AFTN/EARLY EVE PD. NUMEROUS SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE AHD OF THIS FEATURE. OVERALL...HVY RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH A VERY MOIST AMS/ELEVATED WARM CLOUD DEPTHS STILL IN PLACE. DEEP-LYRD SHEAR BCMS A LTL BETTER BY FRI...BUT LACK OF DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HVY RAIN/FLOODING HAVE ALSO BEEN INCLUDED IN THE HWO FOR THU/FRI. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS WELL-ENTRENCHED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN FIRM CONTROL. TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY EARLY WEEK AS SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES BEGIN TRACKING EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONT DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE CONCLUSION OF THE PERIOD AS FEATURE REMAINS STALLED TO OUR NORTH. IN TERMS OF TEMPS...STRONG WARM ADVECTION EARLY WEEK SHOULD ALLOW LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY. FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT...A FEW NEAR 90 DEGREE READINGS APPEAR POSSIBLE AS STALLED FRONT REMAINS WELL NORTH. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY AND PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MVFR-IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA...WITH BREAKS OF VFR ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE WEST. AREAS SUCH AS KELM-KITH-KSYR ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE CIG/VSBY CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL THEN BE POSSIBLY THREATENED BY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. DUE TO A SUPERSATURATED AIRMASS OVERNIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO ALL STATIONS BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. MODERATE ESE-SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-20 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME RIDGE TOP TURBULENCE AND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE NEAR KAVP WITH SURFACE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. OUTLOOK... THU NIGHT AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM SHWRS/TSTMS ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY DURG THE AFTN/EVE HRS. SAT...BECOMING VFR. SUN...VFR. MON...VFR. CHC TSRA. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLJ NEAR TERM...MLJ SHORT TERM...MLJ LONG TERM...CMG AVIATION...JAB  FXUS61 KBGM 131930 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 330 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. DRY COOL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... THEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS EVENING/... WATCHING TWO LINES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE EASTERN BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRESSURE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR RME TO BGM TO NEAR AVP. BLENDED TPW PRODUCT HAS BEEN SHOWING PWAT VALUES GRADUALLY DECLINING THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE REMAINS AN AXIS OF VALUES NEAR TO JUST OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS OUR AREA. THE STORMS IN THIS LINE HAVE BEEN MOVING RATHER SLOWLY WITH SOME TRAINING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ON AREA RAP SOUNDINGS ARE MORE THAN 10 KFT DEEP AND WINDS ALOFT ARE LIGHT. IN ADDITION THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS AN AREA THAT GOT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EARLIER TODAY. GIVEN ALL OF THESE FACTORS HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN WITH THIS LINE EAST OF I-81 THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT AREA FOR LATE TODAY. THE SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND IS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AREA AS OF 3 PM. THE AREA IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THIS LINE HAS NOT HAD MUCH RAIN TODAY AND SPC MIXED-LAYER CAPES IN THIS AREA ARE NEAR TO JUST OVER 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS REMAIN WEAK AND THE SEVERE RISK WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE LOW... WITH THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT BEING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND PERHAPS SOME WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 40-50 KTS. THE BEST MOISTURE AND WETTEST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE EAST OF I-81 AND SO IT WOULD APPEAR THAT AREAS IN THE WATCH WOULD AGAIN BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING WITH THIS LINE AS IT GETS EAST OF I-81 THIS EVENING. ALL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING AND COOLER WEATHER OVERNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY THEN SLOWLY MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND MODIFIES ON SUNDAY. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY SATURDAY BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN COOL NW FLOW FOR BKN SC CLOUDINESS TO DEVELOP IN MOST AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. CLEARING WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SUNDAY WILL BE WARMER AND SUNNY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMET ON QPF LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE ESPECIALLY OVER THE FINGER LAKES. WITH SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS FOR LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE AS SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR WITH THE RETURN OF A WARM INCREASINGLY HUMID LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 1 PM FRI UPDATE... MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY THEN DIVERGE. UNSETTLED AND WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGHOUT. UL FLOW STARTS OUT ZONAL WITH A WEAK FRONT MON NGT. WED A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AS A BROAD UL TROF SETS UP OVER NE US AND SE CANADA. QUESTIONS THEN ON HOW FAR TO THE SE THIS FRONT MAKES IT. THE EURO IS WELL SOUTH GIVING THE CWA A DRY THU AND FRI BUT GFS NOT AS AGRESSIVE. LEANING TOWARD GFS AND WPC WHICH KEEPS SHOWERS IN THE AREA THU AND FRI. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 130 PM UPDATE... GENERALLY VFR THIS AFTN AND EVE BUT SHOWERS WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. ATTM CONVECTION FROM RME TO BGM TO AVP WITH MVFR AND MAYBE BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS. THIS WILL MOVE EAST BY 21Z. REST OF SITES MORE ISOLATED BUT SHOWERS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE AFTN. COLD FRONT AROUND 22 OR 23Z WILL SHIFT WIND AND HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. SOME WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS. ENDING BY 3Z. LATE TONIGHT CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR AT BGM ITH AVP. SATURDAY CIGS RETURN TO VFR BY14Z. WEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTN SHIFTING TO NW THIS EVENING THEN DROP TO 5 KTS LATE TONIGHT. SATURDAY STARTING 13Z W TO NW WINDS AT 10 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OUTLOOK... SAT TO MON MORN...VFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME. IFR/LIFR CONDS IN MRNG FOG ARE PSBL AT KELM SUN AND MON. MON AFTN TO WED...VFR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME. RESTRICTIVE CONDS POSSIBLE IN SCTD SHWRS/TSTMS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR PAZ039-040- 043-044-047-048-072. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ009-036- 037-045-046-056-057-062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MSE NEAR TERM...MSE SHORT TERM...MSE LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...TAC  FXUS61 KBGM 162352 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 652 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. AFTER MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING...A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM MOVING TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...AND PERHAPS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK'S SOUTHERN TIER...LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 3 PM UPDATE... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA HAS FINALLY KILLED THE WEAK LAKE EFFECT SNOW AIDED BY FINGER LAKE MOISTURE. THIS HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST KEEPING THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA DRY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INVADED THE WHOLE CWA FROM THE SW AHEAD OF A LARGE BUT WEAK STORM CROSSING THE TN VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS. OVERRUNNING SNOW NOW IN WV IS MOVING ENE INTO PA TONIGHT AND PULLING OUT TUE MORNING. THIS SNOW WILL MOVE TO THE NY PA BORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEST SNOW LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A DUSTING IN THE SRN TIER OF NY TO 1 INCH IN AVP TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES IN THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOW TEMPS AGAIN BELOW 10 DEGREES. BELOW ZERO IN NY. TEMPS IN NY MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS WHICH SHOULD FALL QUICKLY DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING. TUESDAY WEAK WAA BEHIND THE EXITING LOW WELL TO THE SE. MAX TEMPS WILL RISE TO 15 TO 25. SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... 3 PM UPDATE... TUESDAY NIGHT DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS. COLD AGAIN WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. A COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH MIDDAY WED AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW. MORE ARCTIC AIR COMES IN WED NGT AND REMAINS WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD SNOW WITH THE FRONT BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER 2 INCHES. WED NGT LAKE EFFECT SETS UP WITH A WNW FLOW. BY LATE WED NGT CONTINUING INTO THU MULTIBANDS GOING THROUGH THE SYR AREA. UNCERTAINTY WITH AMOUNTS BUT THIS WILL BE THE BEST LES FOR SYR IN SEVERAL WEEKS. AGAIN WITH THE ARCTIC AIR THE DENDRITE ZONE WILL BE LOW AND FALLING. LAKE ONTARIO SURFACE LAKE TEMPS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOW AND MID 30S WITH A QUARTER OF THE LAKE MOSTLY IN THE NE ICED OVER. WED NGT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO RECOVERING LITTLE THU WITH HIGHS IN THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 215 PM UPDATE... LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WL BE ONGOING AT START OF LONG TERM PD. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT IT CUD BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS INVERSION HEIGHTS PROGGED TO CLIMB TO NR 750MB WITH SIGNIFICANT LK-INDUCED CAPE VALUES WITH H8 TEMPS PROJECTED TO DROP TWD -30C. MED RANGE MODELS BUILDING HIGH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FRI AFTN ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN MORE TWD THE SW AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING -SHSN NORTH OF AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY. FRI NGT LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD FOR QUIET WX THRU THE EXTNDD. MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS LATEST GFS BRINGS WK SYSTEM THRU CWA ON SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW BHND RESULTING IN LK EFFECT SNOWS. EURO, MEANWHILE INDUCES LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS SATURDAY MRNG AS STRONG H5 WV CROSSES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. LGT SNOW PER EC DOES NOT SPREAD INTO AREA UNTIL AFT 00Z SUNDAY WITH NICE DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY. DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES IN MODELS HV OPTED TO FOLLOW WPC GUIDANCE WITH CHC LGT SNOW ON SATURDAY AND INCREASING POPS SAT NGT/SUN. AS YOU'D EXPECT IF EC SOLN PANS OUT A BAG OF MIXED PCPN WL OVERSPREAD SRN HALF OF CWA LATE SAT NGT. FOR NOW, HV JUST KEPT IT SIMPLE AND HV GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX DRG THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS PROJECTED TO RISE INTO THE LWR 30S OVR NEPA. STILL TIME TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS IN THIS CONTINUOUSLY-ACTIVE PATTERN. TEMPS WL CONTINUE TO RUN BLO NORMAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY IF EC CAN VERIFY. ECMWF GUIDANCE NUMBERS INDICATE TEMPS WELL INTO THE 40S IN NEPA AND THE LK PLAIN BUT AFT BLENDING THESE WITH MEX NUMBER UPR 20S APPEAR REASONABLE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND, MORE IN LINE WITH WPC NUMBERS. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 00Z UPDATE... LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE N. CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS KAVP-KELM-KBGM DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND TOUCH KITH ON TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING IFR VSBYS IN LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS INTO THE AREA FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF IFR PROBLEMS AROUND THE MORNING PUSH. THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFFSHORE AND MOVES EAST WITH THE ATMOSPHERE DRYING OUT AFTER 18Z. THIS SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO VFR BY 00Z. WINDS PRETTY MUCH LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE FIRST 12-15 HOURS...THEN BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS. .OUTLOOK... WED/THU/FRI...WEAK SFC LOW WITH SNOW THEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEHIND IT. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. SAT...MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM IN -SN. && .CLIMATE... 930 AM UPDATE... RECORD LOW OF -17 AT SYR. RECORD LOW TIED AT BGM -7. 2/15 BGM HAD A LOWEST HIGH TEMP 0F 6. OLD RECORD 7 IN 1987. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... DAILY RECORD LOWS ARE PSBL TDY...WITH SPECIFIC EXISTING RECORDS DETAILED BELOW. SYR RECORD LOW -10 1943 HIGH 0 1904 AVE -2.5 1904 BGM RECORD LOW -5 2003/1979 HIGH 9 2003 AVE +2 2003 AVP RECORD LOW -5 1963 HIGH +6 1904 AVE +1 1904 && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...PVF AVIATION...JAB CLIMATE...  FXUS61 KBGM 170834 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 434 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS... MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TWIN TIERS TODAY. WARM HUMID AIR MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A MOIST COLD FRONT INTO TUESDAY...WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDER. THIS WILL BRING IN COOLER WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 2 AM EDT UPDATE... IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE WHICH YIELDED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY...SHALLOW SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED INTO NORTHEAST PA WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...FOG IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS TO AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS PENN YAN- ITHACA-NORWICH-ONEONTA...BASICALLY FOR AREAS WHERE RAIN FELL EARLIER. CLOUDS IN THIS AREA HAVE HAD BREAKS...AND ALSO MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION IS KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S...SO EXPECT THIS FOG TO CONTINUE UNTIL MIXING OCCURS AFTER SUNRISE. REMAINS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LOSE DEFINITION TODAY...GETTING WASHED OUT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. MOST OF OUR REGION WILL BECOME FAIRLY STABLE...AND DRY WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN ESPECIALLY TOWARDS CENTRAL NEW YORK. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FROM STEUBEN COUNTY NY TO BRADFORD-WYOMING-LUZERNE COUNTIES PA...BUT EVEN IN THESE AREAS MAINLY DRY. ON THE WARM SIDE AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN MID 70S TO LOW 80S. MOSTLY QUIET TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. UPPER- MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE AS APEX OF RIDGE PASSES...AND ALLOWS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO GET STARTED INTO MONDAY MORNING. SO WE CAN EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAWN. MILD LOWS IN UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 4 AM SUN UPDATE... THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DVLPMT APPEARS TO BE FROM MON AFTN...THROUGH MON NGT...AND INTO TUE...AHD OF A SFC FRNTL COMPLEX AND SLOWLY IMPINGING UPR-LVL TROUGH. THUS...POPS WILL RAMP UPWARD INTO THE LIKELY RANGE THIS PD. MON AFTN AND NGT...A NNE TO SSW ORIENTED WARM FRNT WILL BE GRADUALLY EDGING EWD THROUGH NY AND PA. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THIS BNDRY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE IDEA OF A TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT ACRS THE FA MON...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 70 OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS...TO WELL INTO THE 80S OVER THE FINGER LAKES RGN. ALTHOUGH THE WARM HUMID AMS ALG AND W OF THIS WARM FRNT WILL DESTABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT MON AFTN AND EVE...OVERALL THE CAPE PROFILES LOOK TALL AND SKINNY IN NATURE...WITH ML CAPES MOST LIKELY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. ALSO ...DEEP-LYRD SHEAR IS QUITE MARGINAL (GENERALLY 0-6 KM VALUES AOB 20 KT). THUS...THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SVR STORMS SEEMS QUITE LOW. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE CONCRETE. A HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AMS (ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES NEARING 1.75") AND ELEVATED WARM CLOUD DEPTHS (10-12K FT) POINT TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. ALSO...SHORT MBE VECTORS MON AFTN AND EVE WOULD ALSO RAISE THE THREAT OF SLOW MOVING AND/OR TRAINING CELLS. DESPITE MORE RECENT RAINFALL...WE HAVE BEEN DRY LONG-TERM...WITH THRIVING VEGETATION ALSO EAGER TO SOAK UP ANY ADDITIONAL RAINS WE GET. THESE FACTORS SHOULD HELP US. JUST THE SAME THOUGH...WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNALS EARLIER MENTIONED HAVING BEEN CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISED FOR THE LAST SVRL MODEL CYCLES...PLUS AN OVERALL SYSTEM HISTORY OF HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING UPSTREAM...WE'LL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN THE HWO. BY TUE...THE MAIN COLD FRNT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP THROUGH CNY/NE PA FROM NW TO SE. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE STILL REMAINS AN ISSUE...WITH THE EC/GFS GENERALLY FASTER WITH THE FROPA (12-18Z FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA) AND THE NAM/GEM SOMEWHAT SLOWER. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AND SOMEWHAT BETTER SHEAR BY TUE AFTN...ANY STORM THREATS WOULD PROBABLY SHIFT MORE TO WIND/HAIL BY THEN...AS OPPOSED TO HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...A MORE RAPID FROPA (AS INDICATED BY THE EC/GFS) WOULD EVEN MITIGATE THIS CONCERN...WITH PRESUMABLY INADEQUATE TIME FOR SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION. WE'LL SIMPLY HAVE TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE ATTITUDE. FOR NOW...WE HAVE LIKELY POPS EARLY IN THE DAY...LESSENING WITH TIME FROM W TO E. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DESCENT UPON THE RGN STARTING TUE NGT...THEN LASTING INTO THE START OF THE LONG-TERM. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 430 AM SUN UPDATE... ONCE AGN...NO SIG CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FCST ATTM. AN EASTERN CANADIAN/NERN U.S. TROUGH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE WED-THU...WITH MODERATION LIKELY THEREAFTER. IF CLEAR SKIES/GOOD RADIATING CONDS CAN DVLP (WHICH SEEMS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT) WED NGT OR THU NGT...AT LEAST LOCALIZED FROST WOULD BE PSBL. THIS IS SOMETHING WE'LL BE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PREV DISC... THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UNSEASONABLY COOL, DRY TROF DROPPING OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A MEAN TROF SETS UP OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, THOUGH THE HEIGHT PATTERN IS RATHER FLAT ACROSS NY/PA. EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT, THE ENTIRE PERIOD LOOKS DRY. THE BEST SHOT OF COOL AIR COMES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THE ECMWF 925MB TEMP PROGS ARE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY'S RUN AROUND 3C-4C. YESTERDAY'S RUN FORECAST CLOSER TO 0C. AFTER A COOLISH WEDNESDAY WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR 60F, IT WILL BE CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT SO FAR IT APPEARS TOO WARM FOR FROST. TEMPS REBOUND LATE IN THE WEEK, HANGING JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 06Z UPDATE... IN WAKE OF WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER SHALLOW FRONTAL INVERSION...FORMING FOG. IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS KITH- KBGM-KELM-KAVP...AND EVEN BELOW AIRPORT MINS KELM AND AT TIMES KBGM. ALSO...LINGERING SHRA KAVP FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. FARTHER NORTH...KSYR-KRME DID NOT GET RAINFALL...BUT ERODING CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO DEWPOINTS AND THUS SOME IFR MIST AT TIMES TOWARDS DAWN. RAPID IMPROVEMENT 12Z-15Z AS DAYLIGHT BRINGS MIXING IN OF DRIER AIR. SCT SHRA-ISO TSRA NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF KELM-KAVP...BUT OVERALL DRY TODAY AND NOT NEARLY ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THOSE TERMINALS. AFTER MIX OUT OF FOG...VFR TODAY WITH VARIABLE TO LIGHT NW WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KTS. .OUTLOOK... LATE SUN NGT...SOME FOG MAY FORM AND CAUSE RESTRICTIONS AGAIN...ESPECIALLY KELM. MON-TUE...SHRA AND CHANCE OF TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. TUE NGT-WED-THU...MAINLY VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...DGM/MDP SHORT TERM...MLJ LONG TERM...DJP/MLJ AVIATION...MDP  FXUS61 KBGM 180859 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 459 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM MUGGY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY...THEN A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY...WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 430 AM MON UPDATE... UNSETTLED WX IS STILL EXPECTED THIS PD. A NEARLY STATIONARY FRNTL BNDRY NEAR THE PA/NY BORDER EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWD AS A WARM FRNT TDY. AS OUR RESIDENT AMS DESTABILIZES THIS AFTN (SPCLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND W OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR...WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY TO BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR)...AND HGT FALLS ALOFT/IMPROVING UPR JET DYNAMICS BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE RGN LTR IN THE DAY...SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY EARLY TO MID-AFTN. THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE WELL INTO THIS EVE. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTN AND EVE...AS SIGNALS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN THERE IN THE MODELS FOR THE LAST SVRL CYCLES. THESE INGREDIENTS INCLUDE DEEP MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.75" AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 10-12K FEET)...TALL NARROW INSTABILITY PROFILES TO INCREASE PARCEL RESIDENCE TIMES IN THE WARM CLOUD LYR...AND THE PSBLTY FOR SLOW MOVING/TRAINING CELLS...OWING TO A FAIRLY LGT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PATN UP THROUGH THE MID-LYRS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS...WE'VE MENTIONED HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN THE GRIDS...AND HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO. DUE TO THE LIKELY SMALL-SCALE/ISOLD NATURE OF ANY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...PLUS LONG- TERM DRY ANTECEDENT CONDS...AND FULL GREEN-UP...IT'S WAY TOO PREMATURE/UNCERTAIN TO CONSIDER ANY FLOOD WATCHES ATTM. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE PROXIMITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRNTL BNDRY ACRS THE RGN...SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIR TEMP GRADIENT THIS AFTN (HIGHS RANGING FROM NEAR 70 OVER PTNS OF THE CATSKILLS...TO THE MID 80S IN THE FINGER LAKES RGN). ON TUE...THE MAIN SFC COLD FRNT IS STILL EXPECTED TO CHARGE THROUGH CNY/NE PA FROM NW TO SE...MOST LIKELY DURG THE AFTN HRS. BY THIS TIME...DRIER AIR ALOFT AND LESSENING JET DYNAMICS...SHOULD ONLY LEAD TO SCTD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALG AND JUST PRECEDING THIS FRNT. IT DOES APPEAR...HOWEVER...THAT THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT GREATER WIND/HAIL THREAT...SPCLY FOR OUR ERN ZNS...AS A RESULT OF THE JUST ALLUDED TO DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LVLS...AND ALSO STGR DEEP-LYRD SHEAR. ONCE THE FRNT CLEARS THE FA...MUCH COOLER AIR SHOULD QUICKLY ADVECT IN STARTING TUE EVE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 400 AM EDT UPDATE... BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF SPRINKLE COULD STILL SKIM FAR NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH PEAK DAYTIME GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM ONLY MID- UPPER 50S IN CENTRAL NY...TO UPPER 50S- LOW 60S IN NORTHEAST PA. SURFACE RIDGE...EXTENDING EAST FROM SPRAWLING CENTRAL PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE...WILL VISIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL SLACKEN WINDS AND RESULT IN SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. NOT AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET UP...GIVEN THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOT PASS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD /STILL SOME GRADIENT WIND JUST OFF THE SURFACE/...AND HIGH THIN CLOUDS MAY BE SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING FROM WEAK WAVE ALOFT. STILL LOOKING FOR LOWS OF MAINLY UPPER 30S-LOW 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME OF OUR TYPICALLY COLDEST DRAINAGE SPOTS COULD HAVE PATCHY FROST AND MID 30S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A VERY QUIET PD WITH A WNW FLOW ALOFT AND BLDG SFC HIPRES. THIS WILL RESULT IN GNRLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NRML WX FOR THE LONG TERM. ONLY REAL WX ITEM TO DISCUSS IS A SCNDRY COLD FNT SLIDING INTO NEW ENG ON FRI WHICH PTNLY COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHWRS OVER THE ERN AREAS FRI AFTN. HAVE GONE WITH THE DRY HPC GUID FOR NOW BUT THIS PSBLTY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BEYOND THAT...A LRG SFC BLDS IN BHD THE FNT AND DRY AND COOL WX WILL CONT THRU THE END OF THE PD...AND BEYOND. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 06Z UPDATE... COMPLICATED AVIATION SCENARIO THIS TAF PERIOD...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...YET FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SLIDE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MARINE LAYER IN FROM THE EAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SQUEEZE PLAY CAUSING LIFT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...SHOULD YIELD DEVELOPING SHRA-TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST SHRA THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY STILL EMBEDDED TSRA. BEFORE THEN...FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR MIST DEVELOPMENT DURING REMAINDER OF CURRENT NIGHT UNTIL JUST A LITTLE AFTER DAWN. KELM ALREADY HAS MVFR VIS PRIOR TO 06Z...AND SHOULD BOUNCE IN-AND-OUT OF IFR FOR PREDAWN HOURS UNTIL INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MITIGATE FURTHER RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIGHT SE/LIGHT SW...EXCEPT FOR ERRATIC GUSTS NEAR CB THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE LAYER WITH FUEL ALT MVFR DECK SHOULD ADVECT INTO KAVP THIS EVENING AND PROBABLY KBGM AS WELL. .OUTLOOK... LATE MON NGT-TUE...SHRA/TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS UNTIL FINAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TUE NGT-FRI...MAINLY VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLJ NEAR TERM...MLJ SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...MDP  FXUS61 KBGM 122009 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 409 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE HEAVY RAIN, HAIL, DAMAGING WIND, AND POSSIBLE A TORNADO. DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN SATURDAY AND REMAIN INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 3 PM UPDATE... TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL NY. WARM FRONT STILL OVER THE NRN CWA. THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CREATE HIGH SHEAR. 20 TO 30 KT 0 TO 1KM SHEAR OVER LAKE ONTARIO MOVING EAST. 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR 60 KTS NEAR L ONT TO 30 KTS PA/NY BORDER. STORMS MOSTLY IN THE FAR NORTH ALONG THIS. REST OF THE AREA ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS L60S. CAPE IS OVER 1K. DRY MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW STRONG WINDS TO MIX DOWN. THE COLD FRONT IN FAR WRN NY WILL SWEEP THROUGH WITH MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE INTO NE PA TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. DURING THIS PERIOD WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR TRAINING AS PWATS RISE TO 2 INCHES WITH DEEP SATURATED CLOUD DEPTHS AND A 30 KT LLJ. BEST CHC OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL NY. IN THIS AREA ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WETTER WITH BETTER TSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTN. LATE TONIGHT FORCING WILL LESSEN WHILE LIFT WANES. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE, STRENGTH, AND ALSO MOVE SE WITH COLD FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... 3 PM UPDATE... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NNW WHILE AT UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE BUILDS. SHOWERS WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH OUT OF THE AREA. NY MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY THEN SAT NIGHT DRY EVERYWHERE. SUNDAY THE TREND HAS BEEN TO BRING SHOWERS BACK EARLIER AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOME MODELS HAVE SHOWERS COMING INTO THE WRN ZONES MIDDAY THEN EAST AFTN. UPPED POPS SUNDAY AND SUN NGT. THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUN NGT WITH SHOWERS AND TSTORMS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY WITH MORE PRECIP. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIPRES BLDS IN TUE BRINGING CLRG SKIES HOLDING INTO WED. HWVR...IT/S A BIT OF A DIRTY FLAT RDG AND ISLTD CONV CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESP OVER THE PA ZONES. SLY FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURNS IN EARNEST LATE WED INTO THU AS A WV AND SFC LOW APRCHS FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING AN INCRSD CHANCE OF SHWRS AND TRWS INTO THU AND BEYOND. HPC GUID WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OTR MODEL GUID AND WAS GRNLY FLWD. MINOR TWEAKS TO DATA FOR BETTER COLLABORATION AND TO BRING BETTER CONSISTANCY. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STRONG COLD FNT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN AND EVE TRIGGERING SHWRS AND TRWS...ESP OVER THE NY TAF SITES. XPCT BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIGS WITH THE STORMS...ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS. FNT WEAKENS OVER THE NY/PA BRDR AND CONV WILL SLOWLY END. LEFTOVER MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN OCNL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS...AND ISLTD IFR CONDS...THRU LATE NGT. CLRG ON SAT WILL BRING VFR CONDS BEFORE THE END OF TEH PD. .OUTLOOK... SAT -SAT NGT-SUN...VFR EXCEPT FOR VALLEY FOG SUN MRNG ESPECIALLY KELM. SUN NGT-TUE...POSSIBLE SHRA-TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. WED...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...DGM  FXUS61 KBGM 140817 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 417 AM EDT SUN JUN 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THEN DROP BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT. DURING THAT TIME PERIOD...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS...WILL CAUSE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 415 AM UPDATE... MAIN CONCERN IS VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE YIELDING SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY INTO TONIGHT. OF SECONDARY CONCERN...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS CENTRAL TWIN TIERS TO NEPA. SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING DOWN FROM QUEBEC...AND MINOR RIDGING ALOFT...HAS THINGS FAIRLY QUIET AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...WARM FRONT WILL BE EDGING OUR WAY FROM NORTHEAST OH/SOUTHWEST PA. MEANWHILE ALOFT A PAIR SHORTWAVES NOW OVER THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS THEY CARRY THROUGH OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THOSE WAVES...SOME SHOWERS WILL ATTEMPT TO REACH CENTRAL TWIN TIERS THIS MORNING VIA A WEAK WAVE...BUT WILL DIMINISH BECAUSE OF INITIALLY DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 5 KFT OF THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL SURGE LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM WAVES CRASH THROUGH AND FLATTEN THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE. WITH PWAT VALUES ECLIPSING 2 INCHES...THIS WILL BE EASILY PAST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL /APPROACHING 3/. ALSO...WARM CLOUD DEPTH WILL BE GETTING PAST 12 KFT...AND FOR A TIME WE WILL BE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET INTO TONIGHT. WITH SOUNDINGS BECOMING NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC...AND SHEAR BEING MODEST AT BEST...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER. LACK OF DRY AIR IN MID LEVELS ALSO WILL INHIBIT DOWNDRAFT PRODUCTION SINCE THERE WILL BE LITTLE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. SPC HAS NOW SHUNTED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE MAINLY TO OUR WEST- SOUTHWEST...WITH ONLY MARGINAL FOR ROUGHLY OUR SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...TO THE NORTHEAST /NY THRUWAY CORRIDOR TO WESTERN CATSKILLS/...COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND EVEN SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED TODAY BECAUSE OF INITIAL STABILITY...BUT THEY WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. GIVEN THE ABOVE CONSIDERATIONS...MAIN ISSUE IS FOR POTENTIAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS REPEATED BATCHES OF RAIN OCCURS IN VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS CONCERN HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITHIN OUR LOCAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE RESPONSIBLE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LEADING FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNY/NEPA REGION EARLY IN THE DAY WITH A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE POP FORECAST DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WE WORK DEEPER INTO THE WARM SECTOR. CONFIDENCE IS REASONABLY HIGH WITH THIS IDEA. MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE WITH STILL AN OFFERING OF A STRAY SHRA/TSRA. THE 700-500 MB FLOW REMAINS QUASI-ZONAL AND ENERGETIC THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME VERY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT FOR A TIME MONDAY EVENING BEFORE A SUBTLE FEATURE APPROACHES WESTERN NY/PA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THIS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EJECTING IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE CANADIAN MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS VERY PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO...AS WE SEE THESE THINGS COME AT US OFTEN. THE AMERICAN MODELS AND ECMWF ALSO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY...BUT NOT AS CLEAR CUT. WE WILL START MON NIGHT OFF MAINLY DRY...THEN INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AFT 06Z TUESDAY...THEN CARRY THAT IDEA THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z TUESDAY BEFORE A MORE STABLE NWLY FLOW ADVECTS DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT. NOTHING UNUSUAL ASSOCIATED WITH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE...AND AS MENTIONED BELOW THE 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME BIG CHANGES LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND DEPENDING ON HOW ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE GOMEX REGION UNFOLDS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HINT AT MOISTURE PLUME CONNECTION BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD FROM TEXAS WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL IS MOST OBVIOUS WITH THIS IDEA...WITH THE OTHERS A LITTLE MORE NEBULOUS. 300 PM EDT UPDATE... AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TUES NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WE WILL BE ON THE OUTER EDGE OF THE UPPR LVL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN QUIET AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE DAY... BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE UPPR LVL PATTERN WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL ALLOW MULT WAVES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN GUIDANCE HAS A HARD TIME HANDLING AND ARE SHOWING MANY DISCREPANCIES IN SOLUTIONS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING WED MORNING THRU FRIDAY EVENING. KEPT POPS LOW AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF EACH WAVE PASSING THROUGH. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 06Z UPDATE... QUIET IN THE PREDAWN HOURS...EXCEPT THAT NARROW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL COMPETE WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...RESULTING IN DEVELOPMENT OF SOME VALLEY FOG. KELM IS MOST IFFY IN THIS RESPECT...SINCE HUMIDITY IS ALREADY AROUND 100 PERCENT YET CLOUDS ARE ALSO ABOUT TO THICKEN. EXPECTING BOUNCING IN- AND-OUT OF MVFR VIS FOR KELM AND KITH...BUT BRIEF IFR VIS IS INDEED STILL AT LEAST POSSIBLE FOR KELM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA- TSRA AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER FOR KELM-KAVP...CLOSEST TO THE APPROACHING FRONT...THUS BETTER PROSPECTS FOR CLUSTERS OF TSRA AS WAVE TRAVERSES LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. FEELING FAIRLY CONFIDENT AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS THERE. KITH-KBGM PLAIN SHRA MORE LIKELY COMPARED TO TSRA /AS INDICATED IN TEMPO GROUPS/...BUT CB IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THEN THIS EVENING...SHRA DEVELOPMENT WILL ADVANCE TO MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS IN VERY MOIST YET ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. EMBEDDED TSRA POSSIBLE BUT MAINLY SHRA. CIGS ALSO SHOULD LOWER INTO HIGH END MVFR. WINDS VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. .OUTLOOK... LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MRNG...RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA-EMBEDDED TSRA. MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR CIGS. MON AFTN-TUE...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA AND TSRA. TUE NGT-WED...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING VALLEY FOG ESPECIALLY KELM. WED NGT-THU...CHANCE OF SHRA-TSRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...JAB LONG TERM...JAB AVIATION...MDP  FXUS61 KBGM 090836 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 436 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A MOIST QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WILL BRING A WAVE OF RAIN TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER TO WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK...AND ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...THERE WILL ALSO BE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. AFTER THE SYSTEM EXITS LATE TONIGHT...WELCOME DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 430 AM UPDATE... MAIN CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER TO WESTERN CATSKILLS IN NY AND ALL OF NORTHEAST PA...AND ALSO THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTHEAST PA. SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA PRIOR TO DAWN...BUT ONLY WITH VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE TO SHOW FOR IT IN THE POCONOS TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY...VIRGA ELSEWHERE DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE 6-14 KFT AGL LAYER. THAT WAVE WILL QUICKLY EXIT AND LEAVE US TEMPORARILY QUIET THIS MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...STRONGER WAVE WILL ZIP THROUGH THE AREA AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ROUGHLY ALONG THE NY-PA BORDER BEFORE SHUNTING FURTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARDS LONG ISLAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOT GOING FOR IT IN REGARDS TO A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...MOST IMPORTANTLY PRECIPITABLE WATER SURGING IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES TO ABOUT 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET 40-50 KTS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TRANSPORTING THIS MOISTURE...MEANWHILE ALOFT WE GET FORCED ASCENT VIA RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRENGTHENING UPPER JET AT 250-300MB. ADD WELL MARKED SURFACE BOUNDARY-SURFACE LOW...AND ALREADY MOIST SOILS DUE TO REPEATED RAINS OF THE LAST FEW WEEKS...AND INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER. FREEZING LEVEL IS ACTUALLY EXCEEDING 15 KFT AGL...WHICH WILL YIELD VERY EFFICIENT RAIN. 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OF CONCERN /THE AMOUNT OF RAIN IT WOULD TAKE IN AN HOUR TO START CAUSING FLOOD PROBLEMS/...IS ONLY 0.8 TO 1.4 INCHES. THIS SYSTEM ALREADY HAS A HISTORY OF FLASH FLOODING INCLUDING CURRENT FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF IL-IN- KY. BASED ON THE ABOVE FACTORS...IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE HAVE HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN TIER- SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES-WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY...AND ALL OF NORTHEAST PA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY NORTH MAY ALSO EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAINFALL IF THE SYSTEM TRACK CHANGES JUST SLIGHTLY...IN WHICH CASE THE WATCH COULD BE EXPANDED. UNFORTUNATELY...WE ALSO HAVE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR AT LEAST NORTHEAST PA. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE HOW MUCH CAPE WE CAN MANAGE CONSIDERING CLOUD COVER...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST SOMEWHERE IN THE 500-900 J/KG RANGE TOWARDS WYOMING VALLEY WHICH WOULD PROBABLY BE ADEQUATE. PROBLEMATIC SHEAR VALUES WILL BE LESS OF A CHALLENGE TO ATTAIN...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR. RUNNING THE NUMBERS THROUGH OUR LOCAL ANALOG TOOL BRINGS UP CASES WITH FLASH FLOODING BUT ALSO SPORADIC DAMAGING WINDS AND IN ONCE CASE EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE 0-1KM SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES. SPC INCLUDES ALMOST ALL OF NEPA IN SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE...WITH MARGINAL RISK REACHING JUST PAST PA/NY BORDER. HAIL WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AN ISSUE BECAUSE OF WARM CLOUD DEPTH...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THOUGH THERE WILL BE RAIN NORTH OF THE TWIN TIERS...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE TOO STABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS /TEMPERATURES MAINLY LOW 70S/ TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO HAVE RAIN WILL LINGER A WAYS INTO THE EVENING...A BIT LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BECAUSE UPPER JET SUPPORT LASTING INTO THE NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT OVERNIGHT THOUGH...LEAVING AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 430 AM UPDATE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BRINGING WELCOME DRY WEATHER AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY-SATURDAY. HIGHS UPPER 70S-LOW 80S...AND DEWPOINTS IN MID 50S TO NEAR 60...WILL FEEL VERY COMFORTABLE. HOWEVER...MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT TO CALM WIND...ALONG WITH MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RAINFALL...WILL MAKE VALLEY FOG FORMATION LIKELY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY MORNING AND ONLY TO A SLIGHT LESSER DEGREE SUNDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 210 AM UPDATE... A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLOPE DOWN TOWARD AN ATLANTIC TROF THIS PERIOD, WITH WEAK WAVES RIDING DOWN THE RIDGE INTO NY AND PA. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST EACH PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECASTS AN UL CLOSED LOW TO BREAK OFF FROM THE FLOW AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WITH A WEAK TROF DIPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 3 PM UPDATE... OUR REGION WILL REMAIN INFLUENCED BY NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE CARVING OUT OF YET ANOTHER BROAD TROF ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...AND POSSIBLY A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE UPPER LAKES BY MON-TUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE BIG THREE (GFS/ECMWF/GGEM)...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO AGAIN BECOME ACTIVE...UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY SHOULD ESCAPE RAIN FREE UNTIL TOWARD EVENING WHEN SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD DRIFT IN ON A NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE. AFTER THAT...AT LEAST THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. MODERATE POPS IN THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... LIGHT FOG OR LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE MOIST AIR AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT THIS MORNING, POTENTIALLY BRINGING BORDERLINE IFR CONDITIONS FROM ITH DOWN TO AVP. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNRISE, AND THEN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, EXCEPT IN THUNDERSTORMS. .OUTLOOK... THU AFTRN THROUGH EARLY FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/TSRA THU...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TERMINALS...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS-FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MID MORNING FRI THROUGH SUN...VFR. MON...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR SHRA/TSRA. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ040-048-072. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038-039-043-044-047. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ046-057-062. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ022>025-044-045-055-056. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...ABS/DJP/JAB AVIATION...DJP  FXUS61 KBGM 091659 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1259 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A MOIST QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WILL BRING A WAVE OF RAIN TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER TO WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NEW YORK...AND ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...THERE WILL ALSO BE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINFALL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. AFTER THE SYSTEM EXITS LATE TONIGHT...WELCOME DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS SPREADING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH VERY LITTLE PRECIP IF ANY IN NE PA. THIS PRECIP WAS NOT HEAVY ENUF FOR ANY KIND OF FLASH FLOODING BUT CONCERN LINGERS FOR THE SRN TIER OF NY TO NE PA/CATSKILLS WHERE THERE WERE BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST AND DESTABILZATION. IN ADDTN....STRG THETA-E ADVTN WAS OCCURING AS STRG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT 850 MB PUSHES INTO NE PA AND SC NY. PWATS WERE OVER 2 INCHES IN THIS MOISTURE STREAM WHICH WAS ABT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. HENCE ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN VERY HEAVY RAIN IN SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE LL WIND SHEAR WAS IMPRESSIVE WITH 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR ARND 25 KNOTS, 0-3 KM SHEAR 35 KNOTS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR ARND 40-45 KNOTS. THIS WAS ACRS NE PA. 12Z NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW 0-1 KM SRH AT ARND 250 M2/S2 WITH CAPES PROJECTED TO APPRCH 1000 J/KG. IF THIS ALL COMES TOGETHER WE THINK THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE AND RACE EAST ACRS NE PA AND POSSIBLY SC NY WITH HIGH WINDS AND EVEN AN ISLD TORNADO POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW CAPES WERE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE SO THE MISSING INGREDIENT IS CAPE. HIGHER DWPTS WERE STILL IN THE LOW-MID SUS VLLY OF PA AND SHUD ADVECT NORTHWARD WITH SRLY WINDS. BELIEVE BEST CHC FOR TSRA WILL BE BTWN 20Z AND 00Z THIS EVE. SO THE THREAT WILL BE TWO-FOLD...SVR WX AND FLASH FLOODING SINCE THE PWATS ARE SO HIGH AND THE WARM CLOUD DEPTH WAS UP TO 4 KM. SO WILL CONT FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS ADVERTISED AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR SVR POTENTIAL. IF THE CAPE DOES NOT MATERIALIZE THIS FAR N...WE LIKELY WON/T SEE ANY FLASH FLOODING. AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES...SKIES SHUD CLEAR OR AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT WITH AREAS OF VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING AND FOG IN THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 430 AM UPDATE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BRINGING WELCOME DRY WEATHER AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY-SATURDAY. HIGHS UPPER 70S-LOW 80S...AND DEWPOINTS IN MID 50S TO NEAR 60...WILL FEEL VERY COMFORTABLE. HOWEVER...MAINLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT TO CALM WIND...ALONG WITH MOISTURE FROM PRIOR RAINFALL...WILL MAKE VALLEY FOG FORMATION LIKELY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF SATURDAY MORNING AND ONLY TO A SLIGHT LESSER DEGREE SUNDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 210 AM UPDATE... A LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLOPE DOWN TOWARD AN ATLANTIC TROF THIS PERIOD, WITH WEAK WAVES RIDING DOWN THE RIDGE INTO NY AND PA. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE FORECAST EACH PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECASTS AN UL CLOSED LOW TO BREAK OFF FROM THE FLOW AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WITH A WEAK TROF DIPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 3 PM UPDATE... OUR REGION WILL REMAIN INFLUENCED BY NORTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE CARVING OUT OF YET ANOTHER BROAD TROF ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...AND POSSIBLY A CLOSED 500 MB LOW OVER THE UPPER LAKES BY MON-TUES. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE BIG THREE (GFS/ECMWF/GGEM)...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO AGAIN BECOME ACTIVE...UNSETTLED AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY SHOULD ESCAPE RAIN FREE UNTIL TOWARD EVENING WHEN SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD DRIFT IN ON A NORTHERN STREAM IMPULSE. AFTER THAT...AT LEAST THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. MODERATE POPS IN THE FORECAST. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WINDS, LOWERING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS INTO MVFR-IFR TERRITORY. SOME IFR IS EXPECTED TO I HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS TO OUR SRN TAFS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z. LATER TONIGHT HAVE PATCHY MVFR-IFR FOG DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, EXCEPT IN THUNDERSTORMS. .OUTLOOK... THU AFTRN THROUGH EARLY FRI...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA/TSRA THU...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TERMINALS...FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS-FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MID MORNING FRI THROUGH SUN...VFR. MON/TUE...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR SHRA/TSRA. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ040-048-072. FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ038-039- 043-044-047. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ046-057-062. FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ022>025- 044-045-055-056. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP NEAR TERM...DJN SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...ABS/DJP/JAB AVIATION...DJN  FXUS61 KBGM 141955 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 255 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, LINGERING MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE MUCH OF TODAY ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 11 AM UPDATE...LAKE EFFECT MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED BACK NORTH NOW STRETCHING FROM THE SYR AREA SE ACROSS THE NRN SUSQUE REGION INTO OTSEGO/DELAWARE COUNTIES. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BACK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THE ACTIVITY WILL LIFT FURTHER NORTH AND DISSIPATE AS T85 BEGINS TO WARM. A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS COOL NW FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENTS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. 525 AM UPDATE...MULTI-LAKE CONNECTION SETTING UP BETWEEN GEORGIAN BAY AND LAKE ONTARIO WITH NARROW LAKE EFFECT BANDS EXTENDING FROM THE FINGER LAKES SE INTO BROOME COUNTY. BANDS NOT OVERLY INTENSE BUT DID BRIEFLY DROP VISIBILITIES BELOW 1SM AT KBGM IN -SHSN. I ADJUSTED AREA OF LIKELY POPS FARTHER SOUTH TO LINE UP WITH WHERE THESE BANDS ARE. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS FOR THIS MORNING AS THEY HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER TO DROP. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION HELPING, ALONG WITH THE LAKES, TO BRING SOME SHOWERS. SHOWERS STILL FALLING AS RAIN IN MANY AREAS BUT WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EXPECT THE COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE STILL RELATIVELY WARM LAKES TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NEAR 290-300 DEGREES WITH 850 TEMPS NEAR -8 C...ENOUGH OF A DIFFERENTIAL AS LAKE TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER 40S. GENERALLY, NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION....A TRACE TO LIGHT COATING FOR MOST. HOWEVER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF SYRACUSE THROUGH SOUTHERN ONONDAGA INTO NORTHERN CORTLAND COUNTIES THEN EAST INTO MADISON INTO NORTHERN CHENANGO COUNTIES UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. DON'T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN THIS AS LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE THAT DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING EAST DUE TO PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SYSTEM AND ALSO THAT DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL BE ABOVE THE INVERSION. OTHERWISE EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER TO PERSIST FOR SATURDAY WITH CONTINUING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NY...ESPECIALLY THE ABOVE MENTIONED COUNTIES IN THE NORTH. NOT EXPECTING REAL ORGANIZED BANDS AS THEY SHOULD BE FAIRLY CELLULAR IN NATURE DUE TO INCREASED DAYTIME INSTABILITY. ALSO, AS HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S SNOW SHOWERS WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS BY AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN WITH SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... A QUIET PERIOD FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE AREA BRINGING FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS SUNDAY MODERATE TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. MONDAY DOESN'T LOOK TO BE QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS A NORTHERLY FLOW DELAYS THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMER AIR BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 245 PM UPDATE. I USED OUR SUPERBLEND FOR THE LONG TERM, WHICH IS BLEND BETWEEN EQUAL PARTS OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC GUIDANCE, ALONG WITH A BLEND OF ALL MODEL AND BIAS CORRECTED MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD, WHERE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS OUR AREA. WE REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE 12Z EURO AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN FOR US WILL BE WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER NEPA. THIS LIKELY MAY END UP BEING LOW CLOUDS ARE AT BEST SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS. AGAIN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN WILL BE TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON BOTH MODELS ARE .75" + IN 12 HOURS OR LESS. HEAVY RAIN SIGNALS INCLUDE A VEERING, STRONG LOW LEVEL JET, WARM CLOUD DEPTHS UP TO NEAR 10KFT, PWATS OVER AN INCH, AND SATURATION UP TO NEAR OR ABOVE 15000 KFT. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT WILL GENERATE THE RAIN WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY. WE DON'T COOL OFF BEHIND THE SYSTEM, INSTEAD, JUST DRY OUT. IN FACT TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS OR WELL ABOVE NORMAL, INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WHILE MOST SITES ARE ALREADY VFR, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH EVENING, WITH AN EVENTUALLY CLEARING OF OUR SKY. WITH A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW MVFR MOST LIKELY TO PERSIST NY TERMINALS (OUTSIDE OF KELM) THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BEFORE RAISING TO AROUND 4KFT. OUR DECK WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP WITH ONLY SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED BEYOND 03Z TONIGHT. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15, WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT TONIGHT, AROUND 5 KTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS SUNDAY. .OUTLOOK... MON/TUE...VFR. WED VFR. WED NIGHT/THUR...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PCF NEAR TERM...PCF/RRM SHORT TERM...PCF LONG TERM...HEDEN AVIATION...HEDEN  FXUS61 KBGM 142019 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 419 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AS A STORM SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA, NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND THE CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO LESS HUMID WEATHER. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BE HERE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 3 PM UPDATE... FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CENT NY. THIS HAS BROUGHT A SECOND BATCH OF RAIN TO THE AREA. RAINFALL RATES OVER ONE INCH PER HOUR HAS CAUSED FLASH FLOODING. ANOTHER ROUND IS ON THE DOORSTEP ABOUT TO MOVE INTO STEUBEN COUNTY. THIS WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND LIKELY FLASH FLOODING. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NY UNTIL 2 AM WED. A LITTLE RAIN FELL THERE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA ALSO HAD A LITTLE FLASH FLOODING LAST WEEK AND FFG IS LOW. AS IN PAST WEEKS, RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DESPITE THE SEASONABLY HIGH LEVELS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 3 INCHES. PWATS ARE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. WINDS ARE WEAK ENOUGH THAT MOVEMENT IS SLOW TO MEDIUM. WARM CLOUD DEPTH 11K FT. WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FLASH FLOODING LIKELY. SECOND AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IN WRN NY STRETCHING AND BUILDING SOUTH IN CENTRAL PA. THIS WILL BRING FLASH FLOODING TO NY. IN PA NO RAINFALL IN A FEW DAYS SO PROBABLY NO FF WITH THIS. ANOTHER LINE IN OHIO SHOULD MOVE ESE AND STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF SINKING SE WITH COOLER AIR. FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED SOUTH BASED ON HOW MANY ROUNDS MOVE THROUGH. WEDNESDAY A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MID LEVEL COOLING WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. THE SURFACE FRONT SLOWS SO LINGERING PRECIP IN THE SE CWA. DEPENDING ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TONIGHT MAY AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH RAINFALL WED. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NY ENDING THE SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WITH SATURATED LOW AND MID LEVELS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... QUIET WEATHER FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS WINDS DIE DOWN, DEW POINTS DROP, AND SKIES CLEAR FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THIS WILL SET UP GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER FOR THURSDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES BUT WILL STILL BE A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR MID JULY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS THE HIGH STARTS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH HOWEVER ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL START TO CREEP UP BY LATE DAY THOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS STILL WON'T BE TOO HIGH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE. CONDITIONS BECOME WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LONG RANGE. A DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE AREA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE ROUND LOOKS TO MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE IN PART TO DIURNAL HEATING. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT BUT EARLY INDICATIONS THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF SHEAR. CONDITIONS WILL BE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. DIFFERENCES EMERGE IN THE MODELS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GEM AND ECMWF BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE MONDAY TRIGGERING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY THOUGH STILL BRINGS IN A DISTURBANCE MONDAY WITH CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ANY EVENT, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A LINE OF SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH KSYR/KRME MAY CAUSE MVFR IN VIS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 22-24Z. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING POTENTIAL MVFR VIS AT KELM/KBGM/KITH 22-03Z...ALL OTHER AIRFIELDS STAY VFR. A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS BRINGING IFR CIGS TO KITH/KELM/KBGM AFTER 06Z LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KSYR/KRME AFT 06Z AND KAVP AFT 13Z. THIS LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN UNTIL AROUND 18Z WHEN IT WILL LIFT AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE INTO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KTS TODAY BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH. .OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. THURSDAY/FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018- 022-023-025-036-037-044>046. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...PCF LONG TERM...PCF AVIATION...JRB  FXUS61 KBGM 142124 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 424 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... LOCAL RADARS SHOW WEAK RETURNS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SYR AREA INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN END AS T85 WARMS ABOVE TEMPS NECESSARY FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP. SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL PROVIDE CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING WITH MINS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AS TROF MOVES EAST OF AREA. SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL PROVIDE A MODERATING SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE MID WEST. H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL RESIDE JUST WEST OF FA BY LATE TUESDAY. AT THE SFC HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL GIVE THE AREA A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW. MAXES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND IN THE MID 50S NE PA. SOME MODIFICATION ON TUESDAY IS LIKELY BUT SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP MAXES AT 50 TO 55. THIS IS STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. A DRY MILD PERIOD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 245 PM UPDATE. I USED OUR SUPERBLEND FOR THE LONG TERM, WHICH IS BLEND BETWEEN EQUAL PARTS OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC GUIDANCE, ALONG WITH A BLEND OF ALL MODEL AND BIAS CORRECTED MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD, WHERE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS OUR AREA. WE REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE 12Z EURO AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN FOR US WILL BE WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER NEPA. THIS LIKELY MAY END UP BEING LOW CLOUDS ARE AT BEST SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS. AGAIN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN WILL BE TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON BOTH MODELS ARE .75" + IN 12 HOURS OR LESS. HEAVY RAIN SIGNALS INCLUDE A VEERING, STRONG LOW LEVEL JET, WARM CLOUD DEPTHS UP TO NEAR 10KFT, PWATS OVER AN INCH, AND SATURATION UP TO NEAR OR ABOVE 15000 KFT. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT WILL GENERATE THE RAIN WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY. WE DON'T COOL OFF BEHIND THE SYSTEM, INSTEAD, JUST DRY OUT. IN FACT TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS OR WELL ABOVE NORMAL, INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... WHILE MOST SITES ARE ALREADY VFR, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH EVENING, WITH AN EVENTUALLY CLEARING OF OUR SKY. WITH A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW MVFR MOST LIKELY TO PERSIST NY TERMINALS (OUTSIDE OF KELM) THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BEFORE RAISING TO AROUND 4KFT. OUR DECK WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK UP WITH ONLY SCT CLOUDS EXPECTED BEYOND 03Z TONIGHT. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15, WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT TONIGHT, AROUND 5 KTS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS SUNDAY. .OUTLOOK... MON/TUE...VFR. WED VFR. WED NIGHT/THUR...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...RRM SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...HEDEN AVIATION...HEDEN  FXUS61 KBGM 142244 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 644 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AS A STORM SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA, NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND THE CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO LESS HUMID WEATHER. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BE HERE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 630 PM UPDATE...ACTIVE EVENING AS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPED INCREASING CAPES AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE LATEST LINE MOVING EAST THROUGH STEUBEN COUNTY TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO A FLASH FLOODING REPORT IN WAYLAND. THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS THE STORMS HEAD TOWARD THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH WATCH EXPANDED SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER INTO NE PA DUE TO THE LATEST LINE BEING FARTHER SOUTH. 3 PM UPDATE... FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CENT NY. THIS HAS BROUGHT A SECOND BATCH OF RAIN TO THE AREA. RAINFALL RATES OVER ONE INCH PER HOUR HAS CAUSED FLASH FLOODING. ANOTHER ROUND IS ON THE DOORSTEP ABOUT TO MOVE INTO STEUBEN COUNTY. THIS WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND LIKELY FLASH FLOODING. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NY UNTIL 2 AM WED. A LITTLE RAIN FELL THERE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA ALSO HAD A LITTLE FLASH FLOODING LAST WEEK AND FFG IS LOW. AS IN PAST WEEKS, RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DESPITE THE SEASONABLY HIGH LEVELS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 3 INCHES. PWATS ARE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. WINDS ARE WEAK ENOUGH THAT MOVEMENT IS SLOW TO MEDIUM. WARM CLOUD DEPTH 11K FT. WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FLASH FLOODING LIKELY. SECOND AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IN WRN NY STRETCHING AND BUILDING SOUTH IN CENTRAL PA. THIS WILL BRING FLASH FLOODING TO NY. IN PA NO RAINFALL IN A FEW DAYS SO PROBABLY NO FF WITH THIS. ANOTHER LINE IN OHIO SHOULD MOVE ESE AND STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF SINKING SE WITH COOLER AIR. FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED SOUTH BASED ON HOW MANY ROUNDS MOVE THROUGH. WEDNESDAY A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MID LEVEL COOLING WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. THE SURFACE FRONT SLOWS SO LINGERING PRECIP IN THE SE CWA. DEPENDING ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TONIGHT MAY AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH RAINFALL WED. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NY ENDING THE SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WITH SATURATED LOW AND MID LEVELS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... QUIET WEATHER FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS WINDS DIE DOWN, DEW POINTS DROP, AND SKIES CLEAR FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THIS WILL SET UP GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER FOR THURSDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES BUT WILL STILL BE A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR MID JULY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS THE HIGH STARTS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH HOWEVER ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL START TO CREEP UP BY LATE DAY THOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS STILL WON'T BE TOO HIGH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE. CONDITIONS BECOME WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LONG RANGE. A DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE AREA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE ROUND LOOKS TO MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE IN PART TO DIURNAL HEATING. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT BUT EARLY INDICATIONS THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF SHEAR. CONDITIONS WILL BE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. DIFFERENCES EMERGE IN THE MODELS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GEM AND ECMWF BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE MONDAY TRIGGERING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY THOUGH STILL BRINGS IN A DISTURBANCE MONDAY WITH CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ANY EVENT, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A LINE OF SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH KSYR/KRME MAY CAUSE MVFR IN VIS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 22-24Z. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING POTENTIAL MVFR VIS AT KELM/KBGM/KITH 22-03Z...ALL OTHER AIRFIELDS STAY VFR. A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS BRINGING IFR CIGS TO KITH/KELM/KBGM AFTER 06Z LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KSYR/KRME AFT 06Z AND KAVP AFT 13Z. THIS LOW CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN UNTIL AROUND 18Z WHEN IT WILL LIFT AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE INTO VFR CONDITIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KTS TODAY BECOMING NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH. .OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. THURSDAY/FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038-039. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018- 022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...PCF/TAC SHORT TERM...PCF LONG TERM...PCF AVIATION...JRB  FXUS61 KBGM 142321 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 621 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... LOCAL RADARS SHOW WEAK RETURNS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SYR AREA INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN END AS T85 WARMS ABOVE TEMPS NECESSARY FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP. SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL PROVIDE CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING WITH MINS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AS TROF MOVES EAST OF AREA. SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL PROVIDE A MODERATING SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE MID WEST. H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL RESIDE JUST WEST OF FA BY LATE TUESDAY. AT THE SFC HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL GIVE THE AREA A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW. MAXES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND IN THE MID 50S NE PA. SOME MODIFICATION ON TUESDAY IS LIKELY BUT SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP MAXES AT 50 TO 55. THIS IS STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. A DRY MILD PERIOD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 245 PM UPDATE. I USED OUR SUPERBLEND FOR THE LONG TERM, WHICH IS BLEND BETWEEN EQUAL PARTS OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC GUIDANCE, ALONG WITH A BLEND OF ALL MODEL AND BIAS CORRECTED MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD, WHERE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS OUR AREA. WE REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE 12Z EURO AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN FOR US WILL BE WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER NEPA. THIS LIKELY MAY END UP BEING LOW CLOUDS ARE AT BEST SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS. AGAIN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN WILL BE TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON BOTH MODELS ARE .75" + IN 12 HOURS OR LESS. HEAVY RAIN SIGNALS INCLUDE A VEERING, STRONG LOW LEVEL JET, WARM CLOUD DEPTHS UP TO NEAR 10KFT, PWATS OVER AN INCH, AND SATURATION UP TO NEAR OR ABOVE 15000 KFT. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT WILL GENERATE THE RAIN WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY. WE DON'T COOL OFF BEHIND THE SYSTEM, INSTEAD, JUST DRY OUT. IN FACT TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS OR WELL ABOVE NORMAL, INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 620 PM UPDATE... VFR BUT THE 4K FT STRATUS BKN TO OVC DECK OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO REMAINS IN NY. SLOWED CLEARING TO SCATTERED BUT STILL TONIGHT...4 TO 7Z. RME MAY LAST LONGER UNTIL 9Z THEN RETURN WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY. MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION WITH AN ALIGNED WNW FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. W TO NW WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 5 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT VALLEYS GO TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SUNDAY SW TO W WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS. .OUTLOOK... SUN NGT TO WED...VFR. WED NIGHT/THUR...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...RRM SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...HEDEN AVIATION...TAC  FXUS61 KBGM 150000 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 800 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AS A STORM SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA, NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND THE CATSKILLS WEDNESDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO LESS HUMID WEATHER. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BE HERE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 630 PM UPDATE...ACTIVE EVENING AS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOPED INCREASING CAPES AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE LATEST LINE MOVING EAST THROUGH STEUBEN COUNTY TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO A FLASH FLOODING REPORT IN WAYLAND. THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AS THE STORMS HEAD TOWARD THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER. HOWEVER FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH WATCH EXPANDED SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER INTO NE PA DUE TO THE LATEST LINE BEING FARTHER SOUTH. 3 PM UPDATE... FIRST AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF OUR CENT NY. THIS HAS BROUGHT A SECOND BATCH OF RAIN TO THE AREA. RAINFALL RATES OVER ONE INCH PER HOUR HAS CAUSED FLASH FLOODING. ANOTHER ROUND IS ON THE DOORSTEP ABOUT TO MOVE INTO STEUBEN COUNTY. THIS WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND LIKELY FLASH FLOODING. MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE FRONT. FOR THESE REASONS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NY UNTIL 2 AM WED. A LITTLE RAIN FELL THERE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA ALSO HAD A LITTLE FLASH FLOODING LAST WEEK AND FFG IS LOW. AS IN PAST WEEKS, RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED DESPITE THE SEASONABLY HIGH LEVELS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 3 INCHES. PWATS ARE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. WINDS ARE WEAK ENOUGH THAT MOVEMENT IS SLOW TO MEDIUM. WARM CLOUD DEPTH 11K FT. WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE FLASH FLOODING LIKELY. SECOND AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IN WRN NY STRETCHING AND BUILDING SOUTH IN CENTRAL PA. THIS WILL BRING FLASH FLOODING TO NY. IN PA NO RAINFALL IN A FEW DAYS SO PROBABLY NO FF WITH THIS. ANOTHER LINE IN OHIO SHOULD MOVE ESE AND STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF SINKING SE WITH COOLER AIR. FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED SOUTH BASED ON HOW MANY ROUNDS MOVE THROUGH. WEDNESDAY A CONTINUATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MID LEVEL COOLING WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. THE SURFACE FRONT SLOWS SO LINGERING PRECIP IN THE SE CWA. DEPENDING ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TONIGHT MAY AGAIN HAVE TO WATCH RAINFALL WED. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO NY ENDING THE SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WITH SATURATED LOW AND MID LEVELS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... QUIET WEATHER FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS WINDS DIE DOWN, DEW POINTS DROP, AND SKIES CLEAR FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THIS WILL SET UP GOOD CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER FOR THURSDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES BUT WILL STILL BE A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR MID JULY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS THE HIGH STARTS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH HOWEVER ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL START TO CREEP UP BY LATE DAY THOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS STILL WON'T BE TOO HIGH. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE. CONDITIONS BECOME WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LONG RANGE. A DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING THE AREA SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE ROUND LOOKS TO MOVE IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE IN PART TO DIURNAL HEATING. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT BUT EARLY INDICATIONS THAT INSTABILITY MAY BE FAIRLY HIGH WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF SHEAR. CONDITIONS WILL BE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS IN A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS. DIFFERENCES EMERGE IN THE MODELS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GEM AND ECMWF BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE MONDAY TRIGGERING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF THIS FEATURE UNTIL TUESDAY THOUGH STILL BRINGS IN A DISTURBANCE MONDAY WITH CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ANY EVENT, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/.. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD WILL THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER BRINGING IFR RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES TO KITH/KBGM AND BY LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT FOR KAVP. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF KELM BY MID EVENING BUT STILL EXPECT IFR VISBYS AT TIME. KSYR/KRME SHOULD MISS THE HEAVIEST RAIN THIS EVENING AND REMAIN VFR. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS PUSH OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NW. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT MVFR CIGS FOR MOST SITES WITH KBGM/KELM LIKELY SEEING IFR. THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SE TO SW AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER IN THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WINDS SHIFT TO N/NW OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 1O KNOTS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS FOR WEDNESDAY. .OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. THURSDAY/FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ038-039. NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-015>018- 022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...PCF/TAC SHORT TERM...PCF LONG TERM...PCF AVIATION...PCF  FXUS61 KBGM 150059 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 759 PM EST SAT NOV 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 8 PM UPDATE... RESIDUAL FLURRIES/SPRINKLES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING, AND SHOULD BE GONE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG TOUGH OVER CENTRAL NY/NORTHEAST PA, IN THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW, DOWNSTREAM FROM LAKE ONTARIO. THE SURFACE-850 MB RIDGE LINE IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD THOUGH, TOWARDS THE REGION. ONCE THIS LINE PASSES THE AREA, WINDS SHOULD TURN SOUTHWEST, EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF THE LAKE TRAJECTORY, AND RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES. WE EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S-LOWER 30S ARE STILL FORESEEN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... LOCAL RADARS SHOW WEAK RETURNS SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SYR AREA INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN END AS T85 WARMS ABOVE TEMPS NECESSARY FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP. SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL PROVIDE CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING WITH MINS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE AS TROF MOVES EAST OF AREA. SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL PROVIDE A MODERATING SOUTHWEST FLOW. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE MID WEST. H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL RESIDE JUST WEST OF FA BY LATE TUESDAY. AT THE SFC HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL GIVE THE AREA A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS ON MONDAY UNDER NW FLOW. MAXES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND IN THE MID 50S NE PA. SOME MODIFICATION ON TUESDAY IS LIKELY BUT SE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP MAXES AT 50 TO 55. THIS IS STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. A DRY MILD PERIOD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 245 PM UPDATE. I USED OUR SUPERBLEND FOR THE LONG TERM, WHICH IS BLEND BETWEEN EQUAL PARTS OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WPC GUIDANCE, ALONG WITH A BLEND OF ALL MODEL AND BIAS CORRECTED MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD, WHERE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS OUR AREA. WE REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THE 12Z EURO AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN FOR US WILL BE WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER NEPA. THIS LIKELY MAY END UP BEING LOW CLOUDS ARE AT BEST SPOTTY DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS. AGAIN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN WILL BE TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON BOTH MODELS ARE .75" + IN 12 HOURS OR LESS. HEAVY RAIN SIGNALS INCLUDE A VEERING, STRONG LOW LEVEL JET, WARM CLOUD DEPTHS UP TO NEAR 10KFT, PWATS OVER AN INCH, AND SATURATION UP TO NEAR OR ABOVE 15000 KFT. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT WILL GENERATE THE RAIN WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY. WE DON'T COOL OFF BEHIND THE SYSTEM, INSTEAD, JUST DRY OUT. IN FACT TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS OR WELL ABOVE NORMAL, INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 620 PM UPDATE... VFR BUT THE 4K FT STRATUS BKN TO OVC DECK OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO REMAINS IN NY. SLOWED CLEARING TO SCATTERED BUT STILL TONIGHT...4 TO 7Z. RME MAY LAST LONGER UNTIL 9Z THEN RETURN WITH DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY. MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDER INVERSION WITH AN ALIGNED WNW FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO. W TO NW WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 5 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT VALLEYS GO TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SUNDAY SW TO W WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS. .OUTLOOK... SUN NGT TO WED...VFR. WED NIGHT/THUR...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...MLJ/RRM SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...HEDEN AVIATION...TAC  FXUS61 KBGM 200841 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 441 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE AREA, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN, AND MOVE TO OUR EAST, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE, AND DRIER AIR, TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 4 AM UPDATE... ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE AREA THIS MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT-WAVE IMPULSE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND DAMPEN OUT THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS. THUS, WE THINK MOST OF THE MORNING WILL END UP RAIN-FREE, WITH JUST WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS/STORMS. THIS THINKING IS ALSO WELL SUPPORTED BY MOST OF OUR HIGH-RESOLUTION CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS. THINGS START TO GET MORE INTERESTING THIS AFTERNOON, MOSTLY AFTER 2-3 PM, AS MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER WESTERN NY, THEN SLIDE EASTWARD INTO OUR FINGER LAKES/CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER ZONES. A GOOD WARM/MOIST ADVECTION PATTERN IN THE LOWER-LEVELS, THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT/CONVERGENCE ZONE, AND IMPROVING UPPER JET DYNAMICS, ALL SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. THUS, POPS INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL RANGES BY LATE IN THE DAY, MAINLY FROM THE I-81 CORRIDOR WESTWARD. ALTHOUGH MODEST INSTABILITY (ML CAPES OF 500-800 J/KG) AND A HEALTHY LOW-LEVEL JET (30-40 KT IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER) WOULD PORTEND A MARGINAL THUNDERSTORM WIND THREAT, DECREASING SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS, COMBINED WITH POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT/WARM MID- LEVEL TEMPERATURES, WOULD SEEM TO MITIGATE THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE BIGGER ISSUE, AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE, AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ALL REACH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH LEVELS. HOWEVER, ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE ENOUGH OF AN EASTWARD COMPONENT TO CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SO AS TO PRECLUDE ANY SERIOUS THREAT OF TRAINING/REPEAT STORMS. ADDITIONALLY, FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE RATHER ELEVATED (3-4" IN A 3-HOUR PERIOD), GIVEN FAIRLY DRY WEATHER SO FAR THIS MONTH. THUS, WE LACK THE CONFIDENCE/SKILL LEVEL THIS FAR OUT IN TIME, TO NARROW DOWN ANY SPECIFIC COUNTIES FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WE'LL MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS CLOSELY, IN THIS REGARD, THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WE'LL ALSO CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S-MID 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 415 AM UPDATE... NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE PROGGED TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NY/NORTHEAST PA THIS EVENING, BEFORE LIKELY PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA, AND INTO EASTERN NY, DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN, THE MAIN CONVECTIVE FOCUS WILL BE ON LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AS OPPOSED TO WIND/HAIL, GIVEN A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN, AND THE STRONGEST SHEAR POSITIONED IN THE LOWEST 1-1.5 KM ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. WE EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-81 CORRIDOR WESTWARD, AS SINKING MOTION/DRYING GRADUALLY ENTERS THE PICTURE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN ON FRIDAY OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. CONSEQUENTLY, WE RETAIN A CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES (THE POCONO PLATEAU AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS). SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AGAIN OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS, THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME LOOKS DRY, AS SURFACE RIDGING NOSES DOWN FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC. IN GENERAL, SOMEWHAT COOLER/LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORESEEN FRIDAY-SATURDAY, WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 70S-LOWER 80S, AND NIGHT-TIME LOWS IN THE 50S-LOWER 60S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 330 AM UPDATE... 0Z GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS A MAINLY DRY, BUT COOLER WEEKEND. TRIMMED BACK RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY, AGAIN HIGHLIGHTING MAINLY THE CATSKILLS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER. PREVIOUS AFD IS BELOW WITH NO OTHER CHANGES. WE UTILIZED OUR BLENDED MODEL SET FOR THE LONG RANGE KNOWN AS THE SUPERBLEND. RETROGRADING MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE THE FEATURE TO WATCH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL WAFFLING AS TO HOW FAR WEST THIS MAKES IT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WE MAINTAIN CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY FROM AROUND I-81 EASTWARD FOR SUNDAY UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WHILE AREAS TO THE WEST SHOULD STAY DRY. ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS WITH THIS SHOULD BE LIGHT HOWEVER. HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ATLANTIC MOISTURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST HOWEVER A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HEADING INTO MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LINGERS THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OVER NORTHERN ZONES WITH OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE WILL BE GENERALLY AROUND SEASONAL. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR DECK OF CLOUDS LIKELY AGAIN THROUGH MID MORNING AT KAVP/KELM/KBGM. WITH SOME VARIABILITY IT HE DECK INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR KAVP AND KELM. THIS DECK SHOULD LIFT TO LOW END VFR BY LATE MORNING AROUND THE TIME SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE IN. LATE THIS AFTERNOON, A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINS TO MOVE IN. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE DURING PERIOD WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING. RESTRICTIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS. THROUGH EARLY EVENING A PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN IS LIKELY. WHILE FAR OUT IN THE TAF PERIOD, ALREADY MENTIONED IFR VSBYS DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAIN. WINDS S/SE INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT 5 T0 10 KTS. .OUTLOOK... FRI THROUGH MON...MAINLY VFR. && .HYDROLOGY... POTENTIAL HYDRO ISSUES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS CERTAINLY SUPPORTS HEAVY DOWNPOURS/HIGH RAINFALL RATES. HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WITH HOW PROGRESSIVE THE OVERALL SYSTEM WILL BE. THE LATEST RUNS OF OUR HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE POINT TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF FAST ENOUGH MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS, SO AS TO PREVENT MAJOR PROBLEMS. TIME WILL TELL. AS STATED ABOVE, WE'LL BE CLOSELY EVALUATING THE SITUATION. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MLJ NEAR TERM...MLJ SHORT TERM...MLJ LONG TERM...HEDEN AVIATION...HEDEN HYDROLOGY...JAB/MLJ  FXUS61 KBGM 271441 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 941 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO THE AREA FOR MONDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY EVENING AND BRING A WINTRY MIX WITH COLDER AIR OVER THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN 11 AM AND 4 PM TODAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT AND BEHIND THE FRONT THERE WAS A WIDE BAND OF RAIN ADVECTING NORTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. MODELS ALL SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA WHICH WAS TIED TO THE GREAT LAKES UPPER LEVEL WAVE. AT LOW LEVELS THERE WAS A STRONG 850 MB SWRLY JET WHICH WAS ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE DIVERGENT REGION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL JET FORMING THE RAIN SHOWERS. GIVEN THAT IT IS A RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET CIRCULATION MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE COLD FRONT IS BEING OBSERVED SO AS FRONT PASSES BY THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF POST FRONTAL RAINS. COLD AIR DOES WORK SOUTH QUICKLY SO A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE A CHANGE-OVER TO FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING. HOWEVERE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE NIL. LATER THIS EVENING 850 MB TEMPS DROPS ENOUGH FOR SOME RESPONSE OFF LAKE ONTARIO SO I HAVE SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWERS IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION ON A NRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. CONCERNED THERE COULD BE EVEN SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AS CLOUD DEPTHS MAY NOT REACH HIGH ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH. FOR NOW HAVE FLURRIES. ALL LAKE EFFECT ACVTY WINDS DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR AT LOW-LEVEL POURS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 330 AM EST UPDATE... MONDAY MORNING WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIET FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MONDAY MORNING A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC... WHICH WILL RESULT IN COLD AIR DRAINAGE DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL NY. THE SFC LOW THAT WILL IMPACT OUR REGION WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN TX AND PROPAGATE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG WAA WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SFC LOW. THE COMBINATION OF THE SFC HIGH BUILDING OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC... AND STRONG WAA ALOFT IS A COMMON WEATHER PATTERN THAT IS CONDUCIVE FOR WINTRY MIX TO DEVELOP. THERE ARE STILL MANY UNKNOWNS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS LARGE DISCREPANCIES WITHIN THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE... THUS PRECIP TYPE IS STILL THE LARGEST UNKNOWN ATTM WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW. IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO DETERMINE WHICH PRECIP TYPE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE. WHAT IS KNOWN... IS THAT THE BEST TIMING TO SEE THE WINTRY MIX WILL BE BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY STILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL PLATEAU... WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY... EASTERN SUSQUEHANNA REGION... THE WESTERN CATSKILLS... AND THE FAR WESTERN REGION OF THE POCONO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 12Z TUES AND 00Z WEDNESDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE QUICKLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BY 15Z TUES MORNING. ATTM TEMPS OVER THE TWIN TIER REGION... SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND MUCH OF THE WYOMING VALLEY SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING BY 15Z. THUS... THE WINTRY MIX WILL LIKELY TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN FOR THE REGIONS MENTIONED ABOVE. TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION FROM SW TO NE WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE DAY. REGIONS THAT ARE SLOW TO RISE WILL SEE A WINTRY MIX LONGER THRU THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE QUITE BREEZY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DURING THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35MPH. WILL HOLD OFF ATTM ON ANY HEADLINES AS THE SYSTEM IS STILL FAR OUT AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON PRECIP TYPE... WHICH WILL PLAY A HUGE IMPACT ON ACCUMULATIONS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 3 PM UPDATE... CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A COOLING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND. TUESDAY NIGHT THE MIXED PRECIP STORM PULLS OUT TO THE NE, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER FRONT GOES THROUGH WED AND THU WITH MOSTLY RAIN. THU NGT ON A WEAK BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF IS OVER THE AREA. A NW OF COLD AIR WILL SET OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. SEVERAL WAVES AND WEAK FRONTS GO THROUGH ENHANCING THE SHOWERS. FOLLOWED WPC AND SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL TO START BUT BY SATURDAY HIGHS CLOSE TO NORMAL AND LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE. WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL COMPARED TO THE PAST 2 MONTHS. CURRENTLY THE WARMEST DECEMBER AND WARMEST DEC/JAN/FEB BY SEVERAL DEGREES. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FNT WILL MVE SWRD TODAY AS LOPRES RACES NE ACROSS NY STATE. THIS WILL BRING SHWRS AND WIND SHIFT EARLY IN THE TAF PD...ALONG WITH MVFR AND SPOTTY IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. THERE WILL BE GRADUAL IMPRVMT THRU THE DAY AS DRIER AIR COMES INTO THE AREA BHD THE FNT ON N AND NW WINDS. XPCT A RETURN TO VFR LTR TNGTAS CIGS CONT TO RISE SLOWLY LATE. VRBL WINDS THIS MRNG WILL BECOME MORE NWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FNT SLIDES THRU. .OUTLOOK... MON...MAINLY VFR. MON NGT-TUE...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN WINTRY MIX. WED...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LINGERING LOW STRATUS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJN/KAH NEAR TERM...DJN SHORT TERM...KAH LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...DGM