FXUS63 KARX 202304 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 604 PM CDT WED MAR 20 2013 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY 316 PM CDT WED MAR 20 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON LIGHT SNOW CHANCES THIS EVENING. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN ELONGATED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER TROUGH WAS POSITIONED OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. UPPER RIDGING WAS NOTED ACROSS THE ROCKIES...ATTEMPTING TO EDGE EAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY...ALONG THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. THE ELONGATED TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT THEN FINALLY START TO EXIT TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EDGE EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL CLEAR LATE THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE IN THE NIGHT AS THE HIGH EDGES IN. PLAN ON LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA AND CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL KEEP WINDS FROM GOING CALM IN MOST AREAS WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REALLY TANKING ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY PROVIDING UNSEASONABLY COLD AND SUNNY CONDITIONS. 925 MB TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY SO WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 20S OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL FLATTEN PUSH EAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERALL THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TAKING A TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THEN SHIFTING IT EAST TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON THE 20.12 GFS....ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...ON THE 290-305K SURFACES...AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. .LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY 316 PM CDT WED MAR 20 2013 THE 20.12 GEM AND 20.00 ECMWF ARE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...HOLDING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...BRINGING BREEZY NORTH WINDS TO THE AREA. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE WATCH ON HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE AND COOL NORTHERLY FLOW. WE COULD SEE HIGHS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE LOWER 30S. ALSO...DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL LIMIT HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION CAN GET. AT THIS TIME THINKING THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. PLAN ON TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 30S. && .AVIATION...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY 604 PM CDT WED MAR 20 2013 DAYTIME MIXING ALLOWED CEILINGS TO END UP HIGHER THAN EXPECTED TODAY...WITH BOTH KRST AND KLSE AT VFR. THE HIGHER CEILING ALSO LIMITED THE CLOUD DEPTH...PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRY PRODUCTION. WITH NIGHTTIME COOLING SETTING IN AND RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE DAKOTAS...EXPECT ANY CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING AND NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW 10 KT. PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE REACHES EASTERN MINNESOTA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... 316 PM CDT WED MAR 20 2013 WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION...AJ  FXUS63 KARX 171642 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1142 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013 PORTIONS OF AN MCS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS IOWA EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE NOW SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A BACK EDGE APPROACHING INTERSTATE 35 IN NORTHERN IOWA AS OF 16Z...REFLECTIVE OF THE SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS. HAVE ADJUSTED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BACK EDGE...LOWERING THEM FOR A DECENT PORTION OF THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THE 17.12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN...HRRR AND 17.00Z NSSL WRF-ARW HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS MCS...WHICH CONCURS WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE ADJUSTMENTS. ALSO HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR NORTHEAST IOWA AS WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THE PRECIPITATION. OVER SOUTHERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS... CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MCS. THIS IS WHERE A 40-45 KT 850MB JET ON PROFILER/VAD WIND DATA IS TRANSPORTING MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG INTO THE COLD OUTFLOW PRODUCED BY THE MCS. IN ADDITION...THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG A LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. THE QUESTION FOR THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IS WHERE DOES THE OUTFLOW/LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ZONE SET UP...SINCE THIS WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE 925-850MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THUS...THINK THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ABLE TO LIFT NORTH. THE 17.12Z REGIONAL CANADIAN AND 17.00Z NSSL WRF-ARW SEEM TO FOCUS THE HEAVY QPF AREA OVER SOUTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN THEY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON ONGOING CONVECTION...A WEIGHT TOWARDS THESE MODELS IS WARRANTED. GRANT COUNTY IN OUR FORECAST AREA IS OF THE MOST CONCERN...WHERE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF CAPE IS POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE UNSEASONABLY HIGH...AROUND 3500 METERS WHICH DEFINITELY FAVORS HEAVY RAINFALL...THIS CAPE COULD RESULT IN SOME HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS. WILL UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO ADD THE MENTION OF HAIL. 1-6KM SHEAR IS VERY WEAK...15 KT OR LESS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL TO ISOLATED AT BEST. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP 500MB ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE N-S THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES REGION. IR SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF MID/HIGH CLOUD STREAMING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. CHALLENGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL ONSET OF RAIN TODAY WITH INCREASING INTENSITY GOING INTO LATER THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT... LEADING TO FLOODING POTENTIAL. STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE EAST OF THE COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET UP INCREASINGLY STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL RESULT IN RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA. IN ADDITION...SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICATED BY THE MODELS WITH THE NAM INDICATING 200-400J/KG MUCAPE FOR ISOLATED THUNDER. AS THE LOW PULLS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TONIGHT... RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL PICK UP AS 50-65KT 850MB LLJ INCREASES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...BRINGING 1-1.5 PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO THE AREA. ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE SEEN AS THIS LIFT/MOISTURE FEED NOSES INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS. PLAN ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN//TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES// UP TO 2.5 INCHES SOUTH OF AN OELWEIN IOWA TO PRAIRIE DU CHIEN AND RICHLAND CENTER WI LINE. LATEST FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS THE AREA RANGES FROM 2.3 TO 2.9 INCHES FOR 6 HOURS AND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES FOR 1 HR. DON'T FORESEE MORE THAN 1 INCH/HR RATES AT THIS TIME...BUT GIVEN EMBEDDED THUNDER...CANNOT RULE OUT EITHER. EITHER WAY...WILL SEE DEFINITE IMPACTS OF ALREADY HIGH-RUNNING RIVERS AND PERHAPS SOME FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013 SOME SLACKENING EXPECTED IN THE RAINFALL AS THE DAY WEARS ON THURSDAY WITH THE SURFACE LOW PULLING INTO SOUTHEAST WI...TAKING FETCH OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH IT. STILL LOOKING AT UP TO ANOTHER 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL ON TOP OF THE 1-1.5 INCHES EXPECTED WED/WED N. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF INTO RIVERS AND STREAMS ALONG WITH SOME FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THEN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...EXPECTING TO SEE A SLOW TURNOVER TO LIGHT SNOW AS DYNAMIC COOLING TAKES PLACE AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MAKES PASSAGE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PLAN ON SNOW CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO NEAR 40. EXPECTING TO SEE A 1-3 INCH SLUSHY ACCUMULATION NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM NEILSVILLE AND ARCADIA WI TO WINONA-AUSTIN LINE. ELSEWHERE...JUST A TRACE TO HALF INCH EXPECTED. SOME DRYING FINALLY WILL TAKE PLACE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. STILL LOOKING COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THOUGH AS HIGHS ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 40S. NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE 50S/AROUND 60. LATEST GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOWING DECENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLANS AND ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHTER PRECIPITATION. EXPECTING THE MAJORITY OF THIS TO FALL AS RAIN...BUT MAY BE A SNOW/RAIN MIX SUNDAY MORNING/SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL. THEN FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...BOTH MODELS SHOW ANOTHER MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPPING INTO THE PLAINS...SENDING A SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. COULD SEE A BIT OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID 40S TO MIDDLE 50S...50S TO NEAR 60 ON MONDAY...COOLING INTO THE 40S ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013 MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. CONVECTION NOW OVER IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD...SPREADING INTO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 16Z-18Z. EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO THE LOWER MVFR TO IFR CATEGORY TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO BE INCLUDED IN LATER TAF ISSUANCES. && .HYDROLOGY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013 FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE OR UPWARDS OF 250 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT...COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL TAP THIS MOISTURE TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST WI. WITH MANY RIVERS RUNNING HIGH OR ALREADY IN FLOOD...THIS RAINFALL...ALONG WITH SNOW MELT FROM THE SNOW PACK NORTH OF I-90 AND STILL SOME FROZEN GROUNDS...WILL HEIGHTEN THE FLOOD THREAT. MANY RIVERS WILL GO INTO...OR BACK INTO...FLOOD. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS ALONG WITH STANDING WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ017-029-032>034- 041>044-053>055-061. MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ079-086>088- 094>096. IA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR IAZ008>011-018-019- 029-030. && $$ UPDATE...AJ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM....DAS AVIATION...RABERDING HYDROLOGY....DAS  FXUS63 KARX 172005 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 305 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO PERSISTENT RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A POTENT TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS ADVECTING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTERACTING WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE SURGE OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUES ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE...WHICH IS 160 TO 230 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ALSO...MUCAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1500J/KG ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHERE A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ALSO INCREASE TONIGHT TO AROUND 3000 M WHICH ALSO IS CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. OVERALL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK TONIGHT WITH 1 TO 7 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF ONLY 15 TO 25 KTS. A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE WARMEST AIR LOCATED AROUND 925 MB. PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE COLLOCATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB JET. FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHEAST WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS KEEPING THE HIGHEST TOTALS GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF AN OELWEIN IOWA TO MAUSTON WISCONSIN LINE. 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. HOWEVER...THIS WILL GREATLY DEPEND UPON WHICH AREAS THE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IF RAINFALL RATES BECOME HIGH ENOUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING APPEAR TO BE OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...MAINLY GRANT...CRAWFORD...AND RICHLAND COUNTIES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITUATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING THEN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL FINALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA AND CLOSES INTO AN UPPER LOW. COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY POTENTIALLY BRING SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA. A DRY SLOT PUNCHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY WITH THE FORECAST AREA LOSING DEEP SATURATION. LIGHT RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO DRIZZLE AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES IN. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THEN ADVANCE NORTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THURSDAY EVENING. A BAND OF SNOW WILL FALL ON THE THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL NOT SEE ICE ALOFT SO WHERE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. ICE FINALLY MOVES IN ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT. ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...PLAN ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 INCH TO AROUND AN INCH. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013 THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PROGRESS NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING...THEN SWITCHING OVER MAINLY TO RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PLAN ON BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WITH SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO AROUND 40 ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PLAN ON HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM AROUND 40 OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. THE HIGH QUICKLY SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY SPREADING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN SATURDAY NIGHT...A WINTER MIX IS POSSIBLE. ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SEVERAL WAVES EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE TROUGH AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MAJOR DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES AND EXACTLY HOW THE TROUGH EVOLVES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE WATCH ON THIS SITUATION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013 AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING THROUGH THE TAF SITES SHOULD EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 19Z. IN ITS WAKE...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME EASTERLY GUSTS FOR 1 HOUR UPWARDS OF 25 KT IN SOUTHERN MN...THUS HAVE AT LEAST ADDED A 25 KT GUST AT KRST. AT KLSE...THE GUSTS MAY OCCUR THERE AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS VERY PROBLEMATIC. CONFIDENCE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES HAS DECREASED SOME...WITH STORMS LINING UP OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI TO INTERCEPT THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. ADDITIONALLY...AN EASTERLY FLOW OF DRY AIR NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS HOLDING CEILINGS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED. THERE SHOULD STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FORCING THROUGH TONIGHT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 00-01Z. THUS...HAVE KEPT AT LEAST SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES AND BROUGHT DOWN CEILINGS TO MVFR AT THIS TIME. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BACKING MORE NORTHERLY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...EXPECTING CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER...ESPECIALLY AT KRST. BROUGHT KRST DOWN TO IFR AROUND 09Z. OFF AND ON RAIN/DRIZZLE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE FOR NOW KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS...DUE TO CONCERN AGAIN THAT THE STORMS TO THE SOUTH WILL INTERCEPT THE INSTABILITY. SHOULD THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON...A BETTER SHOT OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD EXIST AT THE TAF SITES...ALONG WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES FROM HEAVIER RAINFALL. && .HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013 FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE WHICH IS 160 TO 230 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT...COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL TAP THIS MOISTURE TO PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO SOUTHWEST WI. ALSO...IF THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER AREAS...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. WITH MANY RIVERS RUNNING HIGH OR ALREADY IN FLOOD...THIS RAINFALL...ALONG WITH SNOW MELT FROM THE SNOW PACK NORTH OF WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 10 AND STILL SOME FROZEN GROUNDS...WILL HEIGHTEN THE FLOOD THREAT. MANY RIVERS WILL GO INTO...OR BACK INTO...FLOOD. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS ALONG WITH STANDING WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ017-029-032>034- 041>044-053>055-061. MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ079-086>088- 094>096. IA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR IAZ008>011-018-019- 029-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION...AJ HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP  FXUS63 KARX 231117 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 615 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 520 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2013 WILL BE CANCELLING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TAYLOR COUNTY SHORTLY. KMPX/KARX WSR-88DS AND SFC OBS INDICATED PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF TAYLOR COUNTY AND DEFORMATION BAND SNOW THAT WAS OVER EAST-CENTRAL MN HAS DISSIPATED/LIFTED INTO FAR NORTHERN WI. THUS LITTLE PROSPECT NOW FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW IN TAYLOR COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. CALL TO TAYLOR COUNTY LAW ENFORCEMENT SAYS LITTLE MORE THAN WET ROADS AROUND THE COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...EXITING SYSTEM TODAY...CLOUD AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS TONIGHT. 06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR KVOK...LIFTING STEADILY INTO NORTHEAST WI. AS THE LOW-850MB TROUGH PASS...NORTH- NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT PULLING THE COLDER 925-850MB AIRMASS SOUTH/EAST WITH -RA SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO -SN OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FCST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE PASSING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS SCOURING THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND STEADIER PRECIP QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE FCST AREA. IR IMAGERY SHOWING WARMING OF CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA...WITH PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO -DZ/FLURRIES. WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM 32F OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MN TO THE LOW 50S AT KPDC/KOVS/KLNR. 23.00Z MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED WELL...BUT FOR GFS A BIT HIGH WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THE LOW/FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 23.00Z SHOWED THE RUNS OF 21.00Z AND 22.00Z VERIFIED VERY WELL ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC...TRENDING TOWARD A TIGHTEN CONSENSUS COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS. MODELS CONVERGING TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS TODAY/TONIGHT AS ONE SHORTWAVE PASSES TODAY AND ANOTHER DROPS INTO WESTERN ND BY 12Z WED...WITH A TREND FAVORING FASTER OF EARLIER RUNS WITH THE ND SHORTWAVE AT 12Z WED. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 06Z SHOWED ALL TO BE REASONABLE WITH THE SFC LOW/FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. A BLEND OF MODELS LOOKED BEST WITH THE 00-06Z PRECIP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS ALSO QUITE GOOD WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN- SNOW TRANSITION LINE NEAR THE NORTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA. NO ONE MODEL FAVORITE AND WITH THE TREND TOWARD A TIGHTER COMPROMISE... FAVORED A MODEL/ENSEMBLE COMPROMISE. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD. FOR THE SHORT TERM...SFC LOW/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH BULK OF THE PRECIP OUT OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z. EXTREMELY DOUBTFUL ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW WILL BE REACHED ACROSS TAYLOR CO. -RA STILL FALLING AT KMDZ BUT SNOW AT LADYSMITH WI AND DEFORMATION BAND OF -SN OVER EAST CENTRAL MN TO PIVOT NORTHEAST AND MAY STILL CLIP TAYLOR CO. WITH A PERIOD OF SNOW IN THE 9-12Z TIME FRAME. WILL LEAVE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TAYLOR CO AS IS FOR NOW...BUT LOOKS LIKE WILL BE ABLE TO CANCEL IT BEFORE 14Z. DRYING ABOVE 850MB SPREADS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA IN THE 12- 18Z PERIOD AND WITH LOSS OF MOST OF THE LIFT...REDUCED/REMOVED -RA/- SN CHANCES FROM MUCH OF THE FCST AREA TODAY. EXCEPTION IS THE FAR SOUTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA. MODELS INDICATING SOME 700-500MB FN AND THETA-E CONVERGENCE...WEAK PV ADVECTION ALOFT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 100- 120KT 300MB JET OVER NORTHERN WI TO SPREAD ACROSS THIS PART OF THE FCST AREA AROUND MID-DAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE SOME 20-60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FORCING/LIFT QUICKLY EXITS BY LATER IN THE DAY. LOWER LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE/DRYING BELOW 850MB CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AFTER THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE/CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PASSES AND SFC-850MB RIDGING BUILDS INTO MN/IA/WI. A COOL NIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SUB-FREEZING LOWS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES/LIGHTER WINDS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM INCLUDE THE PASSING VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LATE WED/WED NIGHT...WARMING TEMPS FRI-SUN... CHANCE OF -SHRA/TSRA WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE/FRONT SUN NIGHT/MON. THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO ND AT 12Z WED DROPS QUICKLY INTO MN/IA BY 00Z THU THEN ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT. A STRONG ROUND OF 500-300MB PV ADVECTION AND 850-700MB FN CONVERGENCE TRANSLATE QUICKLY ACROSS THE FCST AREA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. LIMITING FACTOR LOOKS TO BE PW VALUES OF ONLY ABOUT 1/2 INCH AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING/LIFT SIGNAL AND CONSISTENCY OF MODELS TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE FCST AREA...WILL CONTINUE PRECIP CHANCES IN THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE CENTERED ON WED EVENING...TRENDING QUICKLY DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. QUESTION IS WILL A -TSRA MENTION BE NEEDED LATE WED AFTERNOON/EARLY WED EVENING AS MODELS INDICATING SOME WEAK MU CAPE MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT-850MB TROUGH. LEFT TSRA MENTION OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL A STRONGER CAPE SIGNAL IS SEEN. WARMING TREND BEGINS THU/THU NIGHT AS HGTS RISE AND MAIN JET STREAM STARTS TO RETREAT NORTH INTO CANADA. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SFC-700MB FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. BY 12Z FRI 925MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE +4C TO +8C RANGE... USHERING IN ONE OF THE FIRST REAL WARM-UPS OF THIS DELAYED SPRING. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FRI/SAT AS ONE BROAD/WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES...HGTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND THE FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL ACROSS SOUTHERN CAN BY SAT MORNING. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR/INCREASE SUN/MON AS THE ZONAL FLOW BUCKLES WITH BROAD TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST CAN/NORTHWEST U.S. SUN THEN PROGRESSING EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS FASTER/ STRONGER WITH TROUGHING MOVING EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. 23.00Z ECMWF/GFS HAVE TRENDED MORE SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER FOR MON...WITH A 20-30 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCE PER THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS LOOKING REASONABLE FOR NOW. DID ADD A TSRA MENTION SUN NIGHT/MON WITH BOTH ECMWF/GFS INDICATING UPWARDS OF 500-1000 J/KG OF MU CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 925-850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM SUN...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS HIGHS OF AROUND 70 LOOKING REASONABLE. MONDAY WARM AS WELL BUT MAY BE COOLER THAN SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF ANY FRONT THRU THRU THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2013 SNOW/RAIN HAS PULLED NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT LOW MVFR CIGS HAVE REMAINED. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND RH FIELDS SUGGEST THE LOW CIGS WILL HANG AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME DIURNAL BUMP UPWARDS WITH DAYTIME MIXING. SHOULD BREAK OUT INTO SCT/SKC CONDITIONS BY EARLY EVENING. DON/T ANTICIPATE ANY DRIZZLE THREAT THIS MORNING...CLOUD DEPTH LOOKS TOO SHALLOW AND ANY ISENTROPIC LIFT PER LATEST RAP13 APPEARS ABOVE THE SATURATED LAYER. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT POST THE LOW WILL KEEP IT BLUSTERY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTINESS. IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN MORE ON THE WINDY SIDE DURING THE DAY THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE AVOIDS THE REGION. RAIN/SNOW RETURNS WED NIGHT. SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND SOME LOWER VSBYS AS A RESULT. && .HYDROLOGY...TUESDAY ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2013 IMMEDIATE FLOODING THREATS FROM MDT/HEAVY RAINS LOOKS TO HAVE PASSED. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXITING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...HAVING PRODUCED MOSTLY 1/10 TO 4/10 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. REMAINDER OF PRECIP THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING ONLY LOOKING TO PRODUCE UP TO 1/10 OF AN INCH. WILL ISSUE ESFARX STATING DECREASING FLOODING THREAT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. WILL LEAVE FLOOD WATCH FOR LOWER REACHES OF THE TREMPEALEAU RIVER IN PLACE FOR NOW. OFFICE HYDROLOGIST WILL BE IN EARLY THIS MORNING TO EVALUATE IT...BUT APPEARS THAT WATCH CAN BE CANCELLED AS WELL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE WARM-UP THIS WEEKEND WITH NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE 40S AND DAYTIME HIGHS OF 60-70. THIS WILL START TO MELT THE REMAINING SNOW-PACK NORTH OF A KMSP-KEAU-KAUW LINE...WHICH FEEDS THE WI/CHIPPEWA/ST. CROIX RIVERS AND MS RIVER ABOVE KMSP. THIS ACCELERATED/RAPID MELT WILL PRODUCE RISES ON THESE RIVERS...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY FLOW DOWN THE MS RIVER THRU THE FCST AREA. APPEARS THE MAIN SNOWMELT CREST ON THE MS RIVER FROM WABASHA TO DUBUQUE WILL OCCUR AROUND THE 2ND WEEK OF MAY. RIVER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS WILL ADDRESS THE MS RIVER RISES AS DETAILS OF THE FINAL MELT AND INFLOWS TO THE TRIBUTARY RIVERS BECOME CLEARER THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE.......RRS/RIECK SHORT TERM...RRS LONG TERM....RRS AVIATION.....RIECK HYDROLOGY....RRS  FXUS63 KARX 270804 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 300 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013 CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TRACKING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS IA EARLY THIS MORNING...BEING DRIVEN BY THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HRRR/ARW TAKE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT BRINGS IN AREAS OF LIGHTER SHOWERS TO THE REGION...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. ANOTHER NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SPAWN MORE CONVECTION. NEB/IA LOOKS FAVORED FOR THE MAIN STORM COMPLEX...WHICH THE 27.00Z NAM AND GFS BRING OVER THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06-12Z. SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH SOME OF THE MESO MODELS THOUGH...ALONG WITH THE EC. WILL SIDE WITH THE WETTER SOLUTION FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS SHAKY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013 NO CHANGE IN THE DECISION MAKERS FOR PCPN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE WARM FRONT...LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND CONVECTIVELY INDUCED MCVS/ENHANCED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PLAYING THE MAIN ROLES. WHERE THEY COLLIDE IS WHERE THE MORE LIKELY REGIONS FOR RAINFALL WILL RESIDE. STARTING WITH THE WARM FRONT...MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE WEST-EAST RUNNING BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...BUSTING IT NORTH ON TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSE INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IA TONIGHT...SHIFTING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY TUE. THE FOCUS RETURNS TO THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT...WITH THE MOISTURE FEED AND 40-50 KT JET GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED NIGHT. AS FOR THE VARIOUS MCVS AND SHORTWAVES...MODELS ARE MORE AT ODDS ON WHERE THESE WILL TRACK...LOWERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE A BIT IN WHERE THE GREATER RAIN THREATS WILL BE. TRYING TO DISCERN WHERE THESE IMPORTANT FEATURES WILL BE SHOULD BECOME CLEARER WITHIN THE 12-24 HOUR TIME FRAME...BUT OUTSIDE OF THAT...MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM FRONT IS PROBABLY MORE RELIABLE FOR SETTING UP PCPN CHANCES. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL AGREE UPON INCREASING INSTABILITY ON TUE WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. WIND SHEAR ALSO INCREASES AROUND THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD...AND SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. COME WED/THU...THE BULK OF THE PCPN CHANCES WILL LIE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND JUST TO THE WEST IN THE AVENUE OF NORTHWARD MOVING WARM/MOIST AIR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. ANY BREAK FROM AN ACTIVE RADAR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCROACHES BY THU AFTERNOON WITH THAT RIBBON OF MOISTURE RETURN SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD RAIN...A LINE OF STRONG STORMS LOOKS FAIRLY LIKELY...ALTHOUGH MORE ACROSS IA INTO IL. MOSTLY...FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE WET PATTERN CONTINUES AND GROUNDS ARE SATURATED. FOR DETAILS...CONSULT THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013 A FAIRLY SHARP TRANSITION ZONE FROM VFR CONDITIONS TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT THAT CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH IFR MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT RST THAN LSE. THE CURRENT CONVECTION ALONG THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER IS EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS COMING LATER ON MONDAY. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE EXACT TIMING OF WHEN THE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME THROUGH...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR TO IFR THROUGHOUT REGARDLESS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2013 GROUNDS ARE FAIRLY SATURATED ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA WHERE 3-HOUR FFG ARE 2 INCHES OR LESS. WISCONSIN IS ONLY SLIGHTLY BETTER. SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER UPWARDS OF 150% MUCH OF THE TIME. WARM CLOUD DEPTH ISN/T OVERLY DEEP...MOSTLY UNDER 3500 M. THAT SAID...ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT TAKES DIRECT AIM ON SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA COULD LAY DOWN 1 TO 2 INCHES IN JUST A FEW HOURS. AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE SOUTHEAST MN. SOME HOPE FOR A DAY OF DRYING AT MID WEEK...BUT MORE RAIN FOR THU/FRI. MAY NEED TO CONTINUE...EXPAND...OR ISSUE ANOTHER WATCH FOR THIS PERIOD. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MNZ079-086>088- 094>096. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION.....HALBACH HYDROLOGY....RIECK  FXUS63 KARX 272021 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 321 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013 REMAINS OF LAST NIGHT RAINS IS STILL MOVING SLOWLY NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. STILL EXPECT SOME OF THIS RAIN TO BE AROUND AT 00Z AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE 27.17Z HRRR. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS TWO BOUNDARIES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK WARM FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A MUCH STRONGER WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. ALL THE 27.12Z MODELS BRING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAM SHOWS THIS WAVE PRODUCING UP TO 4 PVU/S OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. THE LIFT FROM THE WAVE SHOULD BE ENHANCED BY SOME AGEOSTROPHIC MOTIONS AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET MOVES OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. WITH THE MAIN WARM FRONT STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...THE MAIN AREA OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD NOT GET AS FAR NORTH AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE MODELS NOW SHOW THE NOSE OF THIS COMING INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL IOWA WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL BE. EXPECT THAT THE NEXT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY WORK NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SOUTH OF THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER. STILL GOOD INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR THE STORMS TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 3.5 KM AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THE COMPLEX THAT FORMS IS EXPECTED TO PRIMARILY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN SECTIONS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS CONVECTION...THE WARM FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH TUESDAY STAYING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND WARMER AIR STAYING SOUTH OF THE AREA...SIGNIFICANTLY CUT TEMPERATURES AND CONCERNED THAT THESE MAY STILL BE TOO WARM. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013 ONCE THE WAVE MOVES BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN AMPLIFYING AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. STILL EXPECTING SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...BUT CONFIDENCE ON WHERE THESE WILL TRACK IS NOT VERY HIGH AS THEY COULD MOVE OVER THE AREA OR STAY OFF TO THE WEST. ONCE THIS PATTERN SETS UP...IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE DOWN STREAM RIDGING BLOCKS OFF ANY EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD GET LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE AREA IN THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOUTHWEST FLOW EITHER TUESDAY NIGHT OR MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY. HAVE THUS CUT BACK ON LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHOWING THE WARM AIR ARRIVING FOR WEDNESDAY. AS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES...MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF BREAK IN THE ACTION TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A LINE OF CONVECTION FORMS ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE LULL IN THE ACTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT ON TIMING...A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE COMING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND WILL TRY TO PUSH A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WILL ACTUALLY HAVE THE CHANCE FOR SOME CAPE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA...BUT HOW MUCH REMAINS UNCERTAIN. BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG OF SB CAPE COULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY IF THE AREA CAN STAY FREE OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY SEE A LITTLE BIT OF SUNSHINE. SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE 0-3 KM LAYER SO IF THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP...LOOKS LIKE THE THREATS WOULD BE HAIL AND WINDS. THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ALL ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND TAKE ON A POSITIVE TILT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS...THE DOWN STREAM RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN PROGRESSING EAST/NORTHEAST AND FINALLY CLEAR THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND COLD FRONT WELL OFF TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PUT THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING WITH WAVES EXPECTED TO STILL BE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EITHER FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING WRAP AROUND RAIN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY STARTS TO BUILD IN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013 WARM AIR ADVECTION SURGING NORTHWARD OVER A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. THESE SHOWERS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 2 MILES AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE EVEN BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THEIR TIMING WAS SO LOW THAT THEY WERE NOT INCLUDED IN EITHER TAF SITE. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN LIFR/IRF AT KRST AND IFR/MVFR AT KLSE. BR ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 3 TO 5 MILES THIS AFTERNOON AND 1 TO 3 MILES TONIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013 CONFIDENCE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING HAS DECREASED TODAY WITH THE MAIN BAND OF ACTIVITY NOW EXPECTED TO STAY FARTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME SUNDAY. NOW EXPECTING AMOUNTS TO BE UNDER AN INCH BOTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD PUSH TOTALS UP TO TWO INCHES. NOT MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AS WILL LET TONIGHTS CONVECTION PLAY OUT AND THEN MAY ADJUSTMENTS IN AREAL COVERAGE AND TIME AS NEEDED. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE TURKEY RIVER ACROSS CLAYTON COUNTY AS HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS COULD PUSH IT TO FLOOD STAGE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MNZ079-086>088- 094>096. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019- 029-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...BOYNE HYDROLOGY...04  FXUS63 KARX 122015 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 315 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013 AT 3 PM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND VAD WIND PROFILERS SHOW A STRONG NEGATIVELY TITLED TROUGH MOVING EAST OUT OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE RAP HAS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG PV ANOMALLY EXTENDING DOWN TO 500 MB. A 850 MB TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE A 700 MB TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND NEAR LA CROSSE. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE NORTH...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS. BOTH THE RAP AND GFS SHOW THAT THE VERY STRONG PV ANOMALY WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AS IT APPROACHES...WE EXPECT TO RAPID ASCENT TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. THE LAPS IS SHOWING A LOW OVER EAST-CENTRAL IOWA. HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE WIND FIELDS AND THE APPROACHING PV ANOMALY EXPECT THAT THE ACTUAL LOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW. WITH THIS IN MIND...EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO POTENTIALLY LIFT A BIT FURTHER NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. REGARDLESS OF THE SURFACE LOW...THE 0-6KM SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THE 0-1 KM HELICITY IS FAVORABLE ALONG THE WARM FRONT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TORNADOES ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAYETTE AND CLAYTON COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO GENERATE QUITE A FEW SUPERCELLS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN 12.19Z AND 13.02Z. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE LARGE HAIL /DUE TO THE FAT CAPE/...DAMAGING WINDS /DCAPES OVER 1000 J/KG/...AND VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS /1.8 PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OVER 4 KM/. AS THE COLD POOLS EVOLVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... EXPECT A LINE OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS LINE WILL THEN MOVE QUICKLY EAST AS A DERECHO THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS... INDIANA...OHIO...AND POSSIBLY SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS PV ANOMALY...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013 ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING 1 TO 2K J/KG MU CAPE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NOT SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...THE 0-3 KM SHEAR DOES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS. WITH WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS ABOVE 4 KM AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO 1.6 INCHES...THE STORMS WILL HIGHLY EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING RAIN... THUS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ON FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE MODELS SHOW THAT A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRACK WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. WITH THE 0-6KM SHEAR LESS THAN 40 KNOTS...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION SHORT WAVE TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION...THUS JUST STAYED WITH THE ALL BLEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013 A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013 WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS ABOVE 4 KM...THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. AS A RESULT...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM...BOYNE AVIATION...WETENKAMP HYDROLOGY...BOYNE  FXUS63 KARX 132015 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 315 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WATER VAPOR INDICATED A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHEAST. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PLAN ON MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH THROUGH MONTANA AND INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL EDGE EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SHOULD TRACK EAST WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER EAST AS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING. THE STRONGEST 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FOCUSED INTO NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS ALSO IS THE AREA OF THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY WITH 0-3 KM MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG. ALSO. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT SETS UP...REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING COULD LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERN ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS RAIN ON TOP OF THE SATURATED SOILS WOULD GO DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THIS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ONCE CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON EXACTLY WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL SET UP. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS THAT THE WARM FRONT COULD SET UP CLOSER TO THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH 1-7 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 40 KTS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN THE SHEAR STARTS TO WANE LATE IN THE NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WHEN LIFTING FROM 875 MB. THESE HIGHER CAPE VALUES OCCUR MAINLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS ZONAL AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA...THEN PUSHES EAST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE REALLY ISN/T APPRECIABLE FORCING WITH THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO OVERCOME THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING...WITH 0-3 KM MUCAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND 2500 J/KG. AN INTERESTING SHEAR PROFILE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH RATHER WEAK FLOW FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700MB. THE WINDS THEN INCREASE FROM ABOVE 700 THROUGH 200 MB...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAINS CONCERNS. ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON 0-3 KM MUCAPE VALUES SOAR TO AROUND 3000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES HOVERING IN THE 40 TO 45 KT RANGE. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE WAVE COULD MOVE IN LATER IN THE EVENING WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH INTO MONDAY MORNING...THEN FINALLY PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND LOOKS TO LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD PUSH THROUGH THE RIDGE BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013 SCATTERED INSTABILITY CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOSS DIURNAL HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR AND THE SURFACE WINDS WILL DROP TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS. WAS INITIALLY CONCERNED WITH THE POTENTIAL OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. HOWEVER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE LOWEST 1 KM WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED. ON FRIDAY MORNING...THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS A CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS SPILL OVER THE TOP OF RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. && .HYDROLOGY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY HOLDS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO NORTHEAST IOWA...WHICH COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING SINCE THE SOILS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS. ALSO...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN COULD BE IMPACTED DEPENDING ON WHERE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4.2KM AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...THE STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THE AREA THAT LOOKS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THESE AREAS WERE HIT PRETTY HARD ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION...BOYNE HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP  FXUS63 KARX 140829 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 329 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013 MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...CONSISTING OF TROUGHING OVER ALBERTA AND IDAHO...RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO MANITOBA...AND TROUGHING FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S.. THE FORECAST AREA LIES ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE RIDGING...RESULTING IN HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WHICH EXISTS OVER WISCONSIN. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM MPX...GRB AND DVN DEPICTED A DRY AIRMASS WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.7-0.8 INCHES OR 80-90 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE DRY AIRMASS HAS HELPED KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. MEANWHILE...TO THE WEST UNDER AND WEST OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...MOISTURE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY ADVECTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS ON A 30-45 KT 850MB JET PER VWP DATA. GOES DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWED VALUES OF 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KS. THIS MAXIMA WAS ALSO CORRELATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS THAT INITIATED OFF THE FRONT RANGE IN COLORADO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE...00Z RAOBS SHOWED 850MB TEMPS OF 16-21C FROM RAPID CITY TO OMAHA AND TOPEKA...QUITE A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO THE 10-13C AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. ALONG THE GRADIENT OF THIS TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE...A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BROKE OUT OVER SOUTHWEST MN INTO WESTERN IA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH OVER IDAHO AND ALBERTA EJECTING NORTHEAST...AS WELL AS FORMING A DEEP CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE FORECAST AREA IS ALL OF THAT WARMER 850MB AIR AND HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE TOWARDS US. GIVEN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN...EXPECT CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE. IN ADDITION...CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVES FROM CONVECTION COMING OFF THE ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS THIS MORNING...AND THOSE THAT FIRE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE AS THEY HEAD NORTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. FOR TODAY...GENERAL CONSENSUS FROM THE MODELS IS FOR INCREASING 310-315K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO COME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATING AN ALTOSTRATUS/ACCAS DECK TO FORM AS A RESULT AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ALONG THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER WHERE THOSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF SOME LOW PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION WEST OF THE MS RIVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SHOWER POTENTIAL. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SOMETHING TO WATCH IS THE 14.00Z NAM SCENARIO WHICH DEPICTS A LARGER AMOUNT OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND NORTH CENTRAL IA...CLIPPING FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF/REGIONAL CANADIAN ARE VERY SIMILAR...THOUGH QPF VALUES ARE NOT NEARLY AS HIGH WHICH MAY BE A RESULT OF MODEL RESOLUTION. THE SITUATION APPEARS TO BE A RESULT OF INCREASING 700-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.8 INCHES PER RAP COMING INTO WESTERN IA...CAPE OF 1000 J/KG OR SO THAT IS UNCAPPED LIFTED FROM 725MB...AND A POSSIBLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK TRACKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN. SHOULD THIS PAN OUT...GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS. NAM/GFS/ECMWF/REGIONAL CANADIAN MOISTURE TRANSPORT FIELDS FROM 925-700MB ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE STREAM SHIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...FOLLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THUS...THINKING THE CONVECTION THAT FIRES LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...IT APPEARS THERE IS A SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT COMING UP OUT OF KS INTO CENTRAL IA OVERNIGHT...LIKELY FIRING MORE CONVECTION ON ITS NOSE FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN IA. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN EXTREMELY CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN WITH THIS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS ADVECTING TOWARDS US ON THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THE INSTABILITY IS TALL AND SKINNY. WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 14 KFT...THINKING HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN. ADDITIONALLY...THE 2-7KM SHEAR WHICH IS MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE INSTABILITY USED BY THE STORMS...IS LESS THAN 30 KTS. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE ON THE IMPACTS FROM THE PRECIPITATION. MAIN THING TO NOTE HERE IS THAT GIVEN THE MOIST SOILS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA AND SOUTHEAST MN...ANY HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN FLOYD AND MITCHELL COUNTIES IN IA. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE MOST CONCERNING AREAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO STAY BETWEEN 10-13C TODAY. WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW YESTERDAY HIGHS. WARMER NIGHT ON TAP AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE IN ACCOMPANYING THE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AGAIN RESULTING FROM THE EJECTING IDAHO TROUGH. EVENTUALLY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT FORMED OVER SASKATCHEWAN ON SATURDAY WILL APPROACH THE AREA...PROGGED TO DROP INTO CENTRAL MN AT 12Z MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH MAY EVEN BEGIN TO PHASE WITH THE GENERAL TROUGHING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z ECMWF. WITH THE FLOW TURNING ZONAL ON SATURDAY...THE MAIN MOISTURE TRANSPORT STREAM SUPPORTING CONVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THUS...LIKE CLIMATOLOGY FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION... EXPECTING IT TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THE CONVECTION AND WHAT SHOULD BE A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE ARE SUGGESTED TO LAY UP OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. GROWING INSTABILITY FROM ANY DAYTIME HEATING PLUS A HUMID AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.8 INCHES... SHOULD PROMOTE RENEWED CONVECTION. AGAIN...HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN AND THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOES THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. OUTFLOWS FROM THIS NEW CONVECTION COMBINED WITH THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST SHOULD PUSH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION OUT OF THE AREA SOMETIME DURING THE EVENING. EXACT TIMING STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN. LEFT SOME LOW CHANCES IN AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE DAY SUNDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE 14.00Z GFS/ECMWF SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF LINGERING. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THESE MIGHT BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED IN LATER FORECASTS WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. ATTENTION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TURNS TO THE TROUGHING DROPPING INTO MINNESOTA. DPVA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PLUS A SURGE OF 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH IS COMING THROUGH AT THE WRONG TIME OF DAY TO GET EXCITED ABOUT IT...AND MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MAYBE AROUND 1 INCH. THEREFORE...HAVE ONLY WENT WITH 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 13.12Z/14.00Z ECMWF EVEN SUGGESTS THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD COME THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY DRY. WITH WARMER 850MB TEMPS ON SATURDAY...14-17C...AND MORE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY WITH SIMILAR READINGS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE EACH DAY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE GOOD MIXING ON SUNDAY...BOOSTING HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. COOLER READINGS ON TAP FOR MONDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND LOWS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS AMONGST THE 14.00Z ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLES ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. MUCH OF THE PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY TROUGHING ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST...RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MEANS MOSTLY A NORTHWEST FLOW OF COOL AND DRY AIR FROM CANADA. THUS...MUCH OF THE FORECAST IS DRY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-90 FOR THIS FEATURE. TEMPERATURE WISE...THE COOLEST DAY LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND 850MB TEMPS OF 8-10C. AIRMASS MODIFICATION THANKS TO THE STRONG JUNE SUN SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THEREAFTER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH SKC SKIES AND VRB TO LIGHT EAST WINDS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRI AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN ANTICIPATED AREA OF SHRA/TS MOVING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. PCPN IS LIKELY FOR KRST/KLSE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A LOWERING IN CIG HEIGHTS AS THE SHRA/TS MOVE IN. PERIODS OF MVFR APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS IN VSBY. PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND TURN FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. SOME MESO MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCT/ISOLD SHRA/TS AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED PCPN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...DEVELOPING IN THE MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTIVE WING OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...ANYTHING THAT WOULD DEVELOP WOULD COME OUT OF A MID /10 KFT/ LEVEL CLOUD DECK...WITH MINIMAL/IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. ACTIVITY IS NOT A FOR SURE THING...AND LOOKS LIMITED IN AREAL EXTENT...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. && .HYDROLOGY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013 VERY WET SOILS ACROSS MOWER AND FILLMORE COUNTIES IN MN ALONG WITH MUCH OF NORTHEAST IOWA OVER THE PAST WEEK...AND REALLY THE PAST COUPLE MONTHS...RESULT IN A HUGE CONCERN FOR FLOODING. THAT 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL THAT IMPACTED FLOYD COUNTY IA LATE WEDNESDAY... MOSTLY IN A SHORT TIME PERIOD...CAUSED A LOT OF FLOODING ISSUES. EXPECTING A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO MOWER THROUGH FLOYD COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SLOWLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY SOUTH OF I-90. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-1.8 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3500-4200 METERS ACCOMPANYING THESE THUNDERSTORMS...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY. WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL SOUTH OF I-90...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EASILY POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE VERY WET SOILS AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOWER AND FILLMORE COUNTIES IN MN AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST IA EXCEPT ALLAMAKEE. DEPENDING ON HOW CONVECTION EVOLVES...THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED EASTWARD...MOST LIKELY INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR MNZ094-095. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION......RIECK HYDROLOGY...AJ  FXUS63 KARX 142020 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 320 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A RIDGE OVER THE THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH IT. A TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO EASTERN MONTANA/WYOMING GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST/NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA...FUELING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHIFTING EAST. A WARM FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA. A SECOND SURFACE LOW WAS TAKING SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...MOVING EAST WITH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND USHERING IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MOIST AIRMASS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST THIS EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT FRONT LIFT INTO NORTHERN IOWA. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE WILL ENTER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP ALONG AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING THEN QUICKLY FOCUSES EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE OVER NORTHERN IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHERE THE STRONGEST 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES INTO THE FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 1.5 TO 1.9 RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND HOVER THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. ALSO...WARM CLOUD DEPTH INCREASES TO AROUND 4KM ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE SURFACE TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...BUT THE WARM FRONT LINGERS OVER NORTHERN IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO FOCUS INTO IT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THESE AREAS...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ARE AT GREATEST RISK OF SEEING FLASH FLOODING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL REPORT OR TWO GIVEN ELEVATED CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SHEAR IS LIMITED AND WITH VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVELS IT WILL TAKE UPDRAFT ROTATION TO GROW LARGE ENOUGH HAILSTONES TO OVERCOME THE HIGHER FREEZING LEVELS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. WEAK RIDGING MOVES IN IN WAKE OF THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MID MORNING ON SATURDAY THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE. AGAIN THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. THE SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AROUND 15Z SATURDAY MORNING...THEN PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SOME SUNSHINE/DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS SURFACE TROUGH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO AROUND 30 KTS AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE COULD SEE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. THE SHEAR LOOKS TO LAG BEHIND THE WAVE SO THIS WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO...THE OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY COULD HELP PUSH THE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013 THE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM FRONT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL HELP TO PUSH THE WARM FRONT BACK TO THE SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD TAPER OFF AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND FOCUS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS SATURDAY LATE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A RATHER PLEASANT LATE SPRING DAY. UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...PLAN ON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. AN UPPER TROUGH THEN RACES SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA/ONTARIO AND HEADS TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST MODELS ON EXACTLY WHEN THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE TROUGH FINALLY EXITS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS WAKE. QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. FORECAST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER MODEL SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE BEYOND THURSDAY SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 70S TO AROUND 80S && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013 SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF STATES CONTINUES TO FIRE THREAT FOR CONVECTION...EVEN WITH SHORT TERM RIDGE IN PLACE. TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS THREAT IS MAIN CHALLENGE FOR AVIATION WITH GOOD VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE RIGHT NOW. EXPECT INITIAL DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY TO THE WEST BUT UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE AND EXACTLY WHEN. BANKING ON HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORMS TO ROLL IN OVERNIGHT AND THEN PASS THROUGH TOWARDS DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH GENERAL RETURN TO VFR AFTER THAT. HARD TO GIVE EXACT TIMING OF STORMS BUT WILL TRY AND NAIL DOWN 3-4 HOUR WINDOW WITH HIGHEST CHANCES. && .HYDROLOGY...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013 HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST IOWA THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE AREAS OF GREATEST CONCERN ARE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY...SUCH AS PORTIONS OF DODGE AND FILMORE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST IOWA ESPECIALLY FLOYD AND MITCHELL COUNTIES. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY EVENING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION UNDER ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO NORTHERN IOWA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES INTO THE FRONT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS HOVERING AROUND 4000 METERS. WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR MNZ094-095. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018- 019-029-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION.....SHEA HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP  FXUS63 KARX 150809 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 309 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS FLASH FLOOD AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR LATER TODAY. CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTH INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...RIDGING FROM LOUISIANA NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN ONTARIO...AND TROUGHING OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND. ALSO OF NOTE WAS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE NOTED ON GOES DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITHIN THE RIDGING...WITH VALUES OF 1.5-1.8 INCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THESE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ARE ALMOST 180 PERCENT OF NORMAL. A 30-40 KT 850MB JET STREAMING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO IOWA PER PROFILER AND VWP DATA HAS HELPED BRING THAT MOISTURE TOWARDS US. ACCOMPANYING THE MOISTURE HAS BEEN WARMER AIR...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 21-27C ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS COMPARED TO 12-14C OVER THE FORECAST AREA PER 00Z RAOBS. ADDITIONALLY...ON THE NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET...CONVECTION ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI. TO THE NORTHWEST...CLEARER SKIES AND DRIER AIR IS PRESENT OVER THE DAKOTAS...BEHIND A COLD FRONT SITUATED IN WESTERN MN. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FLATTENING THE RIDGE AXIS OVER MINNESOTA TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TRAVERSING EAST INTO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS TROUGHING WILL EVENTUALLY HELP PUSH THE COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN MN THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH ACCORDING TO MODEL CONSENSUS OCCURS BETWEEN 00-06Z SUNDAY. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...THE DRIER AIR SEEN OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL FLOW IN AND END THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. UNTIL THEN...THE FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC TRYING TO FIGURE OUT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. FOLLOWING THE TYPICAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE...THE CURRENT CONVECTION BEING SUPPORTED BY THE NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT TO THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THIS HAPPENING AS WELL...WITH 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DIMINISHING BY 15Z. ADDITIONALLY...THIS 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT BECOMES ORIENTED MORE WEST TO EAST...EVEN BY 12Z AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO FLATTEN. THERE COULD EASILY BE A 4-6 HOUR BREAK IN PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA...SAY BETWEEN 14-19/20Z. THEN...DIURNAL HEATING COMBINED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD INITIATE NEW CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER WESTERN KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE LOOKS TO LIFT INTO IA...HELPING TO REFOCUS AND INCREASE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARDS NORTHEAST IA...ALONG WITH BRINGING DPVA FOR FORCING WITH IT. ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IS AN UPPER JET STREAK ON THE ORDER OF 85-115KT PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF MN INTO LAKE SUPERIOR AT 21Z AND 00Z. THIS JET STREAK WOULD PUT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. 15.05Z HRRR AND 15.00Z HIRES ARW/NMM MODELS PRETTY MUCH AGREE WITH THE SCENARIO WRITTEN HERE. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD THEN SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING...AIDED BY A COMBINATION OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...CONVECTION THIS MORNING SHOULD MOSTLY BE A HEAVY RAIN CONCERN GIVEN DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND TALL...SKINNY CAPE. THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS NEED SOME WATCHING. FIRST OFF...INSTABILITY IS PLENTY. RAP MLCAPE PROGS AT 21Z WITH ML DEWPOINTS OF 65-70F AND SURFACE TEMPS IN THE 82-87F RANGE RESULT IN VALUES OF 2500 TO 4000 J/KG...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS CAPE IS FAT TOO...REFLECTED BY NCAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO 0.25-0.35...SUGGESTING RAPID THUNDERSTORM GROWTH. THE TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY THE RAP ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH...SINCE PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD EXIST. MID 70S TO NEAR 80 SUGGESTED BY MOST GUIDANCE SEEM MORE REASONABLE. STILL...THIS RESULTS IN 1500-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. BEST 0-6KM SHEAR LIES AROUND THE FRONT...ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KT...WITH THE BULK OF THIS SHEAR RESULTING FROM A 50 KT WIND MAX AT 6 KM ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO IOWA. ADDITIONALLY... FREEZING LEVELS ARE PROGGED LOWER THIS AFTERNOON...FROM 12000-13500 FT AGL NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THUS...THINKING THERE SHOULD BE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER MULTICELLS OR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. THERE IS ALSO A DRY WEDGE OF AIR BETWEEN 600-800MB WHICH COULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. LASTLY...ALTHOUGH FREEZING LEVELS ARE LOWER...THE PLENTIFUL CAPE AND HIGH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ALONG WITH STORM MOTIONS WHICH LOOK LIKE THEY MAY BE KIND OF SLOW BRINGS UP A HEAVY RAIN CONCERN. THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS GOOD. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013 SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN...WHICH MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DROPPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE CURRENT COLD FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOKS TO SHUNT A LOT OF THE MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS IS REFLECTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.6-0.7 INCHES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THUS...SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AND WITH 850MB TEMPS RUNNING 13-15C...HIGHS SHOULD EASILY CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S. THERE IS A SURGE OF 700-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING...BUT HARD TO SAY IF IT IS GOING TO BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION. THE 15.00Z GFS/CANADIAN/NAM ALL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z MONDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE 15.00Z ECMWF IS MOSTLY DRY AND HAS BEEN FOR MANY RUNS. AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE INVADES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A DRY NIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH THURSDAY ON SHOWING TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND TROUGHING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY...OUTSIDE OF A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO DROP THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY AND PERHAPS BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 15.00Z ECMWF IS SHOWING SOMETHING NEW...A SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND PRODUCING PRECIPITATION. SINCE THIS IS A NEW FEATURE...HAVE HELD ONTO A DRY FORECAST. AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...THE 15.00Z ECMWF HAS CHANGED FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND NOW HAS COME INTO MORE ALIGNMENT WITH THE GFS. BASICALLY...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH IS SUGGESTED TO EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST...SPLITTING THROUGH THE RIDGE IN PLACE. THIS RESULTS IN A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN DOWNSTREAM TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING THE CONCERN FOR CONVECTION. GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT RESULTS IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN AT LEAST 30-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR FRIDAY...AND EVEN HIGHER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THIS ALL EVOLVES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK SINCE THE PATTERN WOULD FAVOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013 CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES WERE ROLLING ACROSS IA WITH THE AID OF THE LOW LEVEL JET...AND ONE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS WILL DROP QUICKLY WITH THE ONSET OF THE SHRA/TS...ALTHOUGH IT MAY TAKE A FEW HOURS TO FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. EXPECT THE LOW CIGS TO HANG AROUND FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE MORNING...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT BY AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE SHRA/TS...EXPECTING A BREAK FROM THE PCPN LATER SATURDAY MORNING. CHANCES LOOK LIKE THEY WILL INCREASE FOR THE AFTERNOON AS MODELS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL STILL BE WAVERING WEST-SOUTH ACROSS IOWA. THESE SHRA/TS SHOULD EXIT EARLY SAT EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS...WITH A CLEARING CLOUD TREND FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013 WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH LESS INSTABILITY AVAILABLE COMPARED TO THE EVENING HOURS...THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 08Z HAS SEEN LESS THAN 0.25 INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE HAVE BEEN ISOLATED LOCATIONS OVER 1 INCH...INCLUDING IN FLOYD COUNTY IA WHICH DOES NOT NEED THE RAIN. SO FAR MOST RIVERS HAVE NOT RESPONDED TO THE RAIN. PRECIPITATION IS ON THE WANE AS OF 08Z...AND WE MAY END UP WITH A DECENT DRY PERIOD...SAY FROM 14-20Z. AFTER 20Z...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COMING FROM THE WEST AND A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF SOUTHWEST KS INTO IOWA. THESE WILL BE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS...WHICH GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT MOIST SOILS COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...MAYBE JUST SLIGHTLY AFTER THE 00Z END TIME OF THE WATCH...AS THUNDERSTORMS WEAKEN AND DROP SOUTHEAST. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ094-095. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019- 029-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION......RIECK HYDROLOGY...AJ  FXUS63 KARX 200750 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 250 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 HEAT...HUMIDITY...AND FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL USHER IN THE OFFICIAL START TO SUMMER DURING THE SHORT TERM. NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE CHALLENGE WITH CURRENT FORECAST IS TRYING TO TIME AND PLACE INEVITABLE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. TIMING OF ANY FEATURE DIFFICULT PAST 24 HOURS AND THIS IS ILLUSTRATED WELL IN SHORT TERM AND MESOSCALE MODELS THAT SEEM TO SHIFT SOLUTIONS EVERY RUN. LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST U.S. AND EJECTING SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST HAS GENERATED ENOUGH RESPONSE IN THE FORM OF LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE RETURN WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ACTIVE SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES. ALREADY SEEING CLUSTERS OF STORMS FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA BACK INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING IN AREA OF FAVORED MOISTURE TRANSPORT. RELATED ADVECTION NOT AS STRONG IN OUR AREA BUT THIS WILL CHANGE OVER NEXT FEW DAYS. DOES NOT APPEAR UPSTREAM CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT INTO REGION THIS MORNING BUT COULD SEE SOME SEPARATE DEVELOPMENT ON EDGE OF BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE WEST. CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...LIKE ANY DAY THIS STRETCH...BUT WITH SUCH DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND TRENDS FROM WEDNESDAY...WILL BUMP UP HIGHS A CATEGORY OR TWO. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR COMPLEX TO REDEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE AREA EITHER LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... AND THEN DRIFTING INTO AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH SMALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. DAMAGING WIND AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL SEEM LIKE HIGHEST THREATS IF STORMS ARE STRONG ENOUGH. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SUPERCELLS AND RELATED SEVERE WEATHER. CERTAINLY INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM AT ALL WITH CLIMBING MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES EACH DAY. ALTHOUGH DETAILS DIFFER...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TREND OF CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MAIN UPPER AIR DYNAMICS REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. WILL LIKELY SEE DAILY ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WITH CONTINUED MINOR SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. TIMING HARD TO PIN POINT THOUGH BUT SOME AREAS COULD SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. REPEAT ROUNDS DEPENDING ON STORM TRACKS COULD LEAD TO LATER FLOOD RELATED WATCHES OR WARNINGS GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013 LATER PERIODS COULD REMAIN ACTIVE FOR THIS AREA OF THE COUNTY AS UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM TROUGH OVER WESTERN U.S. TO BUILDING RIDGE OVER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. DEPENDING ON HOW UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST TRANSITIONS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND MAY DETERMINE HOW MUCH CONVECTION REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF PREVIOUS DAYS WITH MORE STORM COMPLEXES. FORECAST DETAILS GET EVEN MORE NEBULOUS AFTER THAT AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN STATES DURING THIS PATTERN SHIFT. ALTHOUGH BEST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND CAPE VALUES COULD BE SHUNTED SOUTH BY THEN...PROXIMITY OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD GENERATE SMALL WINDOW OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL BEFORE FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE SHARPLY NORTHWEST AS WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013 CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA IN FAVOR OF NEW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED IS OCCURRING AND THE 20.00Z NAM NOW SHOWS LITTLE TO NO EASTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE 20.02Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT ACTIVITY AND SHOWS A SLOW NORTHEAST MOVEMENT AS IT STAYS IN THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE THE VCSH FROM BOTH TAF SITES FOR THE LATE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO PULLED THE VCTS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEW NAM SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIGHTLY TO POINT THAT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE BIT OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY SURPRISED IF SOME STRAY CONVECTION DEVELOPED WITH THE EASTERN CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STILL COMING INTO THE AREA. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES AROUND 21.06Z BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THAT TIMING TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHEA LONG TERM....SHEA AVIATION.....04  FXUS63 KARX 230846 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 346 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...SHRA/TSRA/HEAVY RAINS/SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD...TEMPERATURES. DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS WITH A TROUGH NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER. A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES/WEAKER TROUGHS EXTENDED EAST-WEST ACROSS NORTHERN IA AND WI/IL BORDER AND FROM NEAR KFSD TO NORTHWEST WI. THESE LAST TWO LIKELY ARTIFACTS OF BOTH ONGOING CONVECTION AND THAT FROM LAST NIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN IA BOUNDARY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING TSRA ACROSS EASTERN SD TO SOUTHERN WI. DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER FAR NORTHEAST IA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI WHERE HEAVY RAINS HAVE FALLEN FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT NIGHT. NO LARGE...GLARING ERRORS NOTED WITH 23.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS... THOUGH PLENTY OF SMALLER/MESO-SCALE DIFFERENCES IN THE 850-500MB FIELDS. MUCH MORE THAN ONE WOULD LIKE TO SEE WHEN THE FCST AND SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTCOMES ARE KEYED TO THE SMALL SCALE FEATURES. DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 23.00Z SHOWED THE MODEL RUNS OF 21.00Z AND 22.00Z VERIFIED WELL ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC...AT LEAST WITH THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES. ALL EARLIER RUNS LOOKED TOO WEAK WITH THE SHORTWAVE FEATURES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM MN/WI TO TX/CO. EVEN WITH SOME DIFFERENCES AT THE START...AT LEAST AT 500MB MODELS QUITE SIMILAR FOR TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO MAN/WESTERN ONT. SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE TROUGH/LOW AT 12Z MON ONCE IT IS IN MAN/ONT BUT THIS WELL NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. MODELS SURPRISINGLY SIMILAR WITH A SMALL SOUTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TO BE APPROACHING/CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 06Z SHOWED MOST WERE A BIT WEAK WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST NEB AND THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN IA. MOST WERE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. PER WV IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR REFLECTIVITY...ECMWF LOOKED A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. MODELS AGAIN GENERALLY STRUGGLING WITH THE 00-06Z PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. SOME BETTER IN AREAS THAN OTHERS BUT OVERALL NO ONE MODEL LOOKED BETTER THAN THE OTHERS. FAVORED A MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HEADED BY THE LOCAL REGIONAL WRF MODELS...WHICH WERE BETTER AT DEPICTING THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE MESO-SCALE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THIS CYCLE. PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS...FORCING FOR CONVECTION OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING LOOKS TO WANE AS THE SD SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO MN. THIS INCREASES THE MID LEVEL FLOW AND TAKES MORE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH IT...PASSING NORTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA. ANY BREAK FROM THE CONVECTION THEN LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED. AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY IT PUSHES THE SFC-700MB TROUGH BACK TO THE EAST/SOUTH ALONG WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE. AS THIS TROUGHING APPROACHES SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG IT THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. PW VALUES REMAIN IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 3.5 TO 4KM...ANY TSRA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH THE THREAT OF MORE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. GIVEN THE PAST 2 NIGHTS OF HEAVY RAINS AND NO ROOM TO PUT ANY MORE WATER...WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL BUT CLARK/TAYLOR COUNTIES FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM MON MORNING. TRENDED RAIN CHANCES TOWARD 70 PERCENT WITH THE APPROACH/ PASSAGE OF THE SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ML CAPES IN THE 2K-3K RANGE THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER MOST OF THE SHEAR IS IN THE 0-3KM LAYER AT 15-30KTS. THIS WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH/FRONT...FAVORABLE FORCING AND LOWER LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND BOWING SEGMENTS FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH MORE ORGANIZED TSRA. SEE SWODY1 FOR MORE DETAILS. APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER BREAK LATER TONIGHT/MON MORNING WITH THE MAIN FORCING/LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHED EAST/SOUTH OF THE AREA... BUT NOT BY FAR. IF MODEL CONSENSUS IS CORRECT WITH ANOTHER SOUTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MON...LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE ARE AGAIN POINTED AT THE FCST AREA FOR MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS WITH ML CAPES OF 2K TO 4K J/KG AND PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS. RAISED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR MON AFTERNOON BUT MORE OF THIS MAY BE INTO MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE WAY THINGS HAVE BEEN GOING...ITS LIKELY ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR MON NIGHT. USED A MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS/LOWS TODAY THRU MON. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013 MODEL CONSENSUS TREND FOR MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT IS STRONGER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO COME OUT OF THE ROCKIES MON NIGHT AND END UP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY WED MORNING. HOWEVER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON THIS FEATURE NOT THAT GOOD. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD AVERAGE. MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED/ WET STRETCH OF DAYS. THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THRU TUE NIGHT. THIS AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIPPLES THRU THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE REGION AND ONE OR MORE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR MOVING ACROSS THE FCST AREA. COMPLEX OF SHRA/TSRA INITIATED MON AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT. AFTER THIS ONE CLEARS THE AREA/ DIMINISHES TUE MORNING...ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO QUICKLY RELOAD. WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARD THE AREA...YET ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WITH THE THREAT OF MORE HEAVY RAINS LOOKS TO DEVELOP MOVE ACROSS SOME PORTION OF IA/MN/WI. DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BY TUE/TUE NIGHT SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE GREATEST HEAVY RAIN THREAT WOULD BE. DUE TO THE CONVECTION UNKNOWNS...FOR NOW USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF LOWS/HIGHS MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 23.00Z CONTINUE TO SHOW A PATTERN TRANSITION IN THE WED-SAT PERIOD. INCREASING SIGNAL FOR RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH DOWNSTREAM NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. GIVEN DECENT BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE. WED-SAT TRENDING TO BE A DRIER/COOLER PERIOD AS THE FLOW TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHWEST. APPEARS TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING MAY BE THE LAST OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/HEAVY RAIN THREATS. FLOW BECOMES BRIEFLY WESTERLY/ZONAL WED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC LOW MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. THIS CHANGE PUSHES THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS OUT OF THE AREA. SHRA/TSRA STILL POSSIBLE WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW WED THEN WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVES WED NIGHT INTO SAT. ANY OF THESE SHRA/TSRA THESE WOULD BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE /ESPECIALLY BY THU/...HAVE LESS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AND BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. SMALLER MODEL CONSENSUS SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE WED-SAT PERIOD LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR THIS PERIOD LOOK GOOD AS WELL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013 BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN HAS SHOWN NO MOVEMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH STORMS CONTINUING ALONG AND NORTH OF IT. REGIONAL AND LOCAL RADAR DOES SHOW A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY BACK IN THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA HAS A MORE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF THE LOCAL ARX-LAPS HAS LATCHED ONTO THESE DIFFERENT AREAS OF CONVECTION WITH THE 23.03Z RUN TAKING THE ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA OFF TO THE EAST AND OUT OF THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT WHILE TAKING THE NEXT ROUND PAST THE AREA TO THE NORTH. THE 23.03Z HRRR SHOWS THE SAME TRENDS SO PLAN TO CONTINUE THE TSRA THROUGH 08Z AT KRST AND 10Z AT KLSE. AFTER THAT WILL JUST DROP BACK TO VCSH FOR A SHORT WHILE BEFORE GOING TOTALLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE TSRA ACTIVITY UNTIL IT ENDS. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE 23.00Z NAM INDICATES THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST. SHOULD SEE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND HAVE PUT IN A VCTS TO SHOW THIS WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT LATER FORECASTS WILL DETAIL THE TIMING BETTER. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013 FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING...ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI. THIS BEING COVERED BY FLASH FLOOD AND AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS. DUE TO THE RECENT RAINS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...SATURATED SOILS AND THE THREAT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN...LOCALLY 2 INCHES OR MORE IN REPEATING TSRA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH...WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM MONDAY. TRIBUTARY RIVERS LIKE THE KICAKPOO...BLACK...UPPER IOWA AND TURKEY RIVERS CONTINUE TO RISE AND REACH FLOOD STAGE AS WELL. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND HIGH RUNOFF PERCENTAGES WILL ONLY CREATE MORE PROBLEMS WITH THESE LARGER RIVERS...ESPECIALLY AS THIS PERIOD OF STORMY WEATHER AND THREAT OF MORE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES. IN ADDITION TO THE SHORT TERM WATER CONCERNS...THERE IS A RIVER FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MISSISSIPPI AT WABASHA...WINONA...AND LA CROSSE. WATER FROM THE TRIBUTARY RIVERS...AND RIVERS NORTH OF THE FCST AREA WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE MS RIVER...WITH THE MS RIVER AT THESE LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AROUND OR AFTER THE 1ST OF JULY. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR WIZ032>034-041>044-053>055-061. MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...RRS LONG TERM....RRS AVIATION.....04 HYDROLOGY....RRS  FXUS63 KARX 232044 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013 AT 3 PM...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MEANWHILE THERE WAS ANOTHER CONVERGENT BOUNDARY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BOTH THE 23.12Z ARW AND NMM DEVELOP A LINE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LATTER BOUNDARY BETWEEN 23.21Z AND 24.00Z. HOWEVER THEY ALSO HAVE AROUND 3000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE AND THE SPC SURFACE BASED CAPE IS CURRENTLY ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG...SO THINKING THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON LIKE THE LAST 3 HOURLY RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN SHOWING. FOR THIS EVENING...THE 23.12Z MESO /RAP...NMM...AND ARW/ AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND 2 TO 3K MOST UNSTABLE CAPES WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE HRRR WAS SUGGESTING A SIMILAR SCENARIO EARLIER THIS MORNING AND HAS SINCE BACKED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION. WITH THERE BEING SUCH AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS OPTED TO KEEP A 20 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE GOING FOR THIS AREA TONIGHT. WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WILL DROP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FOR OVERNIGHT...BOTH THE ECMWF AND NOW THE HRRR SHOW THAT A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE HRRR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURGING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 07Z. DUE TO THIS KEPT...THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE 20 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS UP 4.5 KM...THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...THUS...KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE ONLY QUESTION IN THE FORECAST IS WHETHER WE HAVE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING TOO FAST TOWARD SUNRISE. ON MONDAY...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THE SHORT WAVE WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST IOWA. WITH MANY OF THE MESO MODELS DRY FOR THE MORNING...DECIDED TO TREND THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD THE DRY SIDE. DURING THE AFTERNOON...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM HAS IT DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND MANY OF THE OTHER MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT MIGHT OCCUR ON MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THERE BEING VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...DECIDED TO COMPROMISE WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. LIKE OVER THE WEEKEND...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR REMAINS LESS THAN 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER THE 0-3KM CONTINUES ABOVE 30 KNOTS...THUS COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BOWING SEGMENTS AS THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOME COLD POOL DOMINANT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013 ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THEN MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NIGHT. WITH STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO THE REGION... PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 2 INCHES...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEEDING 4 KM...EXPECT AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN /POTENTIALLY 3 TO 5 INCHES/ TO FALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MANY OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER WITH THE MODELS BEING A BIT TOO FAR NORTH LATELY...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION MAY FALL ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ISSUE ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS TIME PERIOD EITHER LATE TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY. FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO THE REGION... PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 2 INCHES...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS EXCEEDING 4 KM...EXPECT AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN /POTENTIALLY ANOTHER 3 TO 5 INCHES/ TO FALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME... IT LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WOULD FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013 TSRA SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE REMOVED THE TSRA CHANCES IN THE TAFS...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON ADDING THESE BACK. IT APPEARS A VFR PERIOD IS WARRANTED. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013 WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST- CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN HAS GREATLY DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS A RESULT...DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THESE AREAS. MEANWHILE IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST IOWA...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT COULD RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES. SINCE THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN ANYWHERE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES DURING THE LAST 3 DAYS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WATER TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. ADDITION FLASH FLOODING LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. EACH OF THESE EVENTS COULD PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS RAIN MAY FALL. EXPECT ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES TO BE ISSUED FOR THESE TIME PERIODS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR WIZ041>044-053>055- 061. MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MNZ096. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019- 029-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM...BOYNE AVIATION...BAUMGARDT HYDROLOGY...BOYNE  FXUS63 KARX 240915 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 415 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013 06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER LK WINNIPEG AND OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLE AREA...WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN BETWEEN ACROSS SD TO IA. FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROUGH FROM THE TX/OK LOW WAS ACROSS KS TO NORTHERN MO. WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION/THETA-E CONVERGENCE OVER THIS BOUNDARY FOCUSED FROM EASTERN CO TO SOUTHERN IA...WHERE CONVECTION WAS FIRING EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA AND REST OF WI/MN GETTING A NEEDED BREAK FROM THE SHRA/TSRA SO FAR SUNDAY THRU THIS MORNING...BEING NORTH/EAST OF THE SFC-700MB RIDGE AXIS. INITIALIZATIONS OF 24.00Z MODELS BETTER THAN THE PAST COUPLE 00Z CYCLES...THIS EXCEPT FOR THE GFS TOO HIGH ON SFC DEW POINTS OVER MUCH OF THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. EVEN WITH TIGHTER/BETTER INITIALIZATIONS...SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HAVE MESO-SCALE DIFFERENCES WHICH IMPACT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM. DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 24.00Z SHOWED THE MODEL RUNS OF 22.00Z AND 23.00Z VERIFIED WELL ACROSS NOAM/EASTERN PAC...FAVORING STRONGER OF EARLIER RUNS WITH THE TROUGH/ENERGY NEAR LK WINNIPEG AND THE TROUGHING OVER CA. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS GOOD WITH THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES TODAY THRU TUE BUT PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE WEAKER SHORTWAVES THRU THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. GENERAL TREND IS A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING AND STRONGER WITH UNIDENTIFIABLE SHORTWAVE FEATURES. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 06Z SHOWED ALL TO BE REASONABLE WITH THE SFC MASS FIELDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. PER WV IMAGERY MODELS LOOKED GOOD WITH THE LARGER SHORTWAVES OVER NOAM...WHILE STRUGGLING WITH WHAT LOOKED TO BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE AIDING THE NEB/CO/KS CONVECTION. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...MODELS HAVING DIFFICULTIES WITH CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. CLOSEST WITH THE 00-06Z PRECIP LOOKED TO BE THE GFS AND THE HRRR WRF MODEL. NO ONE CLEAR FAVORITE. WITH ALL THE MODEL SCENARIOS ON HOW CONVECTION PLAYS OUT THE NEXT 48-72HRS AND MOST MODELS CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH THAT EARLY THIS MORNING...SHORT-TERM CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE. FORECAST TODAY/TONIGHT HINGES ON WHERE THE KS/NORTHERN MO BOUNDARY ENDS UP. MODEL CONSENSUS LIFTS THIS BOUNDARY...AND ITS FOCUS FOR FORCING/LIFT/CONVECTION INITIATION...SLOWLY NORTH TODAY/TONIGHT... TO SOUTHWEST MN TO EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL BY 12Z TUE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF THE 850MB JET ALREADY FIRING THE CONVECTION OVER IA...WITH THIS TRANSLATING EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARD AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA. WILL EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA THRU THE MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE FRONT AND TOWARD THE AREA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO NEB. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR CONVECTION TO SLOWLY BUILD WEST/SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING THE LIFT INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. PER THE HRRR...PART OF THIS IS THE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS NEB EARLY THIS MORNING. LEANING TOWARD THE HRRR WHICH HAS BEEN DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THE CO/NEB CONVECTION AND THAT ACROSS IA...THE NEB CONVECTION GROWS ONCE IT REACHES STRONGER/RICHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA. SOME FORM OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THEN HEADS TOWARD THE FCST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC FORCING STRENGTHENS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH. RAISED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INTO THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE FOR TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. ANY TSRA WILL REMAIN EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE...ML CAPES OF 2K-3K J/KG AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5 TO 4KM. WITH MANY AREAS WATERLOGGED AND HAVING ONGOING FLOODING ISSUES...WILL EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO COVER ALL BUT CLARK/TAYLOR COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON THRU MID MORNING TUE. FORCING SIGNALS GET A LITTLE MORE MUDDIED TUE. THIS NOT UNEXPECTED DUE TO POTENTIAL DIFFERENT OUTCOMES WITH CONVECTION OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. APPEARS THE FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE 925-850MB FLOW CONTINUING TO PUSH/LIFT MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER IT. CONTINUED 40-60 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA TUE. MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...BUT WILL DEAL WITH THAT ONCE WE GET PAST TONIGHT. ON TOP OF THE HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS...A FEW OF THE TSRA COULD BE SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN TUE INTO TUE EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY...INCREASE OF THE 0-6KM SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR TSRA TO ORGANIZE INTO COMPLEXES WITH STRONG COLD POOLS. SEE SWODY1 AND SWODY2 FOR MORE DETAILS. USED A BLEND OF THE NUMERICAL TEMP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS/LOWS FOR TODAY THRU TUE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013 FOR TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF THE TROUGHING NOW OVER CA WILL LIFT INTO AND ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TREND CONTINUES TO FAVOR STRONGER OF THE EARLIER RUNS. WITH THIS BEING A LARGER SCALE FEATURE AND THE DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY FCST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PERIOD IS AVERAGE. AS THE STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE NIGHT THE PLAINS SFC LOW MOVES INTO MN/WI. LOWER LEVEL THERMO DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS STRONG INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. WHERE THE FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW FROM TODAY/TUE ENDS UP WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE STRONGER LIFT WILL BE. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS IT SOMEWHERE OVER THE FCST AREA TUE NIGHT... THUS CARRIED HIGHEST SHRA/TSRA CHANCES IN THE 60-70 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE NORTHEAST 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. PW VALUES REMAIN IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE WITH ANY STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS. AGAIN...WILL LIKELY NEED MORE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO TUE NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES...LOCALLY MORE...OF RAIN. ONCE THIS STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSES TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING THE FLOW PATTERN OVER NOAM BEGINS TO CHANGE WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SPREAD INTO MN/IA/WI WED/WED NIGHT. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WILL LINGER WED WITH THE SFC LOW-MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES DECREASE WED NIGHT AS HGTS RISE AND THE SFC-MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. DUE TO THE CONVECTION DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES...CONTINUED TO USE THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR LOWS/HIGHS IN THE TUE NIGHT TO WED NIGHT PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME SPENT LOOKING AT THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD. 24.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN A GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THE BUILDING WESTERN NOAM RIDGING AND EASTERN NOAM TROUGHING IN THE THU- SUN PERIOD...WHICH PUTS THE REGION UNDER INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THU-SUN SHAPING UP TO BE A DRIER PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL. FCST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE AVERAGE TO GOOD. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THU-SUN...BUT PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MAXIMUM EVAPO-TRANSPIRATION FROM WELL WATERED VEGETATION AND WET SOILS APPEAR TO REMAIN...ALONG WITH STEEP LOW/ MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THRU THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THU-SUN TRENDING TO BE DRY DAYS BUT SOME SMALLER MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO PERSIST...AIDED BY THE PASSING SHORTWAVES FROM TIME TO TIME. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR HIGHS/ LOWS IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD LOOK WELL TRENDED FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013 WATCHING A LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA THIS EVENING WITH THE CONCERN OF WHETHER THIS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THE 24.02Z HRRR AND ITS PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE BEEN DOING A DECENT JOB HANDLING THIS FEATURE AND ATTEMPTS TO BRING IT NORTHEAST BUT WEAKEN IT WITH TIME. RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST ONLY A VERY SLOW NORTHEAST MOVEMENT WHILE THE CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD SUGGEST A MORE EASTWARD MOVEMENT. FOR NOW...PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST AND ONLY SHOW SOME VFR CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM GETTING INTO THE AREA. VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ON HOW MONDAY PLAYS OUT. WITH THE MAIN BOUNDARY NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...SEVERAL MODELS INDICATING THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. MODELS ALSO SHOW DIFFERENT IDEAS WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION OVER COLORADO. THE 23.12Z GEM AND ECMWF BRING THIS NORTHEAST AND EAST INTO THE AREA WITH THE MEAN FLOW WHILE THE HRRR TAKES IT MORE EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS RIDING THE CAPE GRADIENT WHILE FEEDING OFF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD. WOULD TEND TO THINK THE HRRR IDEA HAS A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF VERIFYING...BUT THERE IS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DRIVING THIS SYSTEM THAT SHOULD GET INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WITH THE FORCING FROM THAT...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A VCTS AT THIS TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT MON JUN 24 2013 THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES/RETURNS TODAY AS YET ANOTHER LOW LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES INTO THE AREA. A FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH FROM KS/NORTHERN MO WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR LIFT AND GENERATING TSRA TODAY/TONIGHT/TUE. THIS BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THRU TUE...WITH THE ZONE OF STRONGER LIFT REMAINING CLOSE TO OR OVER THE FCST AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT COULD RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SINCE MUCH OF THE AREA HAS SEEN ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 10 INCHES DURING THE LAST 3 TO 4 DAYS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH RAIN TO PRODUCE MORE FLOODING PROBLEMS. ADDITION FLASH FLOODING IS QUITE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THRU TUE NIGHT. HOWEVER THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS RAIN MAY FALL. CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING THEN ISSUED A BROADER FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL BUT CLARK/TAYLOR COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID MORNING TUE. APPEARS ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AND ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE LIKELY FOR THOSE PERIODS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WIZ032>034-041>044-053. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WIZ054-055-061. MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR IAZ008>010-018-019. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR IAZ011-029-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...RRS LONG TERM....RRS AVIATION.....04 HYDROLOGY....RRS  FXUS63 KARX 250920 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 420 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013 FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND...DEPENDING ON WARM FRONT LOCATION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO. TWO MAIN FEATURES TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON TODAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ...WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT...APPROACHING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TODAY ACROSS IOWA. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THIS WARM FRONT SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. 4 AM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA....SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WERE FUELING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WAS WEAKENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA STARTING TO TURN MORE EASTERLY TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ATTEMPTING TO TAPER OFF. THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND PUSHING EAST. MESOSCALE MODELS...SUCH AS THE NSSL WRF...SHOW CONVECTION REDEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL IOWA LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS DOES OCCUR IT COULD FORCE THE WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH DIMINISHING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THE STORMS CLEAR OUT FOR A PERIOD AND THE WARM FRONT CAN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE THE FRONT WOULD HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN IOWA AND FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...FOCUSING INTO THE WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE IN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 4000 METERS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 170 PERCENT OF NORMAL...THE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. GIVEN THE ONGOING FLOODING ISSUES AND SATURATED SOILS...DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013 SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH MEANDERS EAST INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN...AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN...JUST GLANCING THE FORECAST AREA. LINGERING INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH 0-3 KM MUCAPE VALUES HOVERING IN THE 1500 TO 2200 J/KG RANGE AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KTS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WHILE DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA AS WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH. THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR THESE LOOK TO BE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. AN UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR THE LAST PART OF THE WEEK AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THEN COOLING SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO FALL INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES...THE TROUGH WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013 COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AIMED RIGHT AT THE AREA. ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE PROGRESSIVE BUT DOES CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP BACK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE 25.03Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AND SHOWS THE CONVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 10Z OR SO WHEN THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STARTS TO REFOCUS BACK ON THE ON GOING ACTIVITY ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. PLAN TO CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER AT BOTH SITES THROUGH 10Z AND THEN SHOW VCTS INTO THE MIDDLE OF TUESDAY MORNING JUST IN CASE THE ACTIVITY IS SLOWER TO MOVE OUT. SHOULD SEE A BREAK FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND DEVELOPS. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MAIN WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. THE FRONT HAS BEEN MOVING AND IS NOW INTO SOUTHERN IOWA SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR IT TO BE NEAR THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAPIDLY INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE FRONT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR BOTH SITES TO SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY AND LATER FORECASTS WILL HAVE TO DETAIL THIS BETTER WHEN THE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER AS TO WHERE THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013 RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SOILS ARE SATURATED ACROSS THESE AREAS AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WOULD GO DIRECTLY INTO RUNOFF AND COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. ALSO...SOME AREA RIVERS ARE ALREADY RUNNING HIGH OR ARE IN FLOOD AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONLY MAKE FLOODING CONCERNS WORSE. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 7 AM WEDNESDAY. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR WIZ032>034- 041>044-053>055-061. MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088- 094>096. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018- 019-029-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION...04 HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP  FXUS63 KARX 252003 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 300 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013 WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS INITIATE TONIGHT...AND THEREFORE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS...REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. MODELS CONTINUE AT ODDS WITH WHERE AND FOR HOW LONG...ALTHOUGH TRENDS DO FAVOR NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI...MOSTLY SOUTH OF I-90. LATEST HRRR/ARW SEEM TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD IDEA OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING NORTHEAST IA...THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS REGION...ALONG WITH 3-4 K J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN IA BETWEEN 21-00Z THIS EVENING. MOVEMENT WOULD BE SOUTHEAST. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWS FAVOR HEAVY RAIN. ASIDE FROM THE HEIGHTEN FLASH FLOOD THREAT...LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE THIS EVENING...WITH AN EXIT SOUTHEAST AFTER 06Z. STILL SOME SMALL CHANCES AFTER THAT...WITH AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCES ON WED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTH. FOR WED...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLATED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING REFLECTION IN THE FRONTOGENETIC FIELDS. THE HEART OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS SHIFTED ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY...BUT THE GFS/NAM DO BUILD A RIDGE OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...MUCAPES UPWARDS OF 2-3K J/KG. ANY DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OBVIOUSLY WOULD IMPACT HOW QUICKLY INSTABILITY COULD REBOUND...BUT DIFFICULT TASK TO FLESH OUT AT THE MOMENT. SOME WIND SHEAR TO PLAY WITH TOO...35-40 KTS 0-6KM AND 20-25 KTS 0-3 KM. ENOUGH FORCING AND LIFT FOR A NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT-WED NIGHT. SEE SOME STRONG/SEVERE RISK TOO. DESPITE LOSING THE MAIN SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FEED...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS REMAIN FAIRLY GOOD FOR EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. GROUNDS WATER LOGGED...SO EVEN A SOMEWHAT NORMAL THUNDERSTORM RAIN COULD RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ITS NOTED THAT THE AFTERNOON VERTICAL INSTABILTY PROFILE VIA BUFKIT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DEPICTS SKINNY CAPE...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. A BIT BETTER TO THE WEST. SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR WED. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013 A PROMISE OF WEAK RIDGE BUILDING A LOFT TO THE WEST AND TROUGH BUILDING TO THE EAST WOULD SHIFT THE MAIN AXIS OF PCPN EAST...FAVORING EASTERN WI AND KEEPING MOST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA RAIN-FREE WED NIGHT INTO FRI. IT WOULD BE A MUCH WELCOMED DRYING OUT PERIOD. HOWEVER...GFS AND ECMWF DROP AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES FRI-SAT. BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SFC TROUGH SLIPS ACROSS THE REGION FRI NIGHT-SAT...AND WOULD PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS. ON A POSITIVE NOTE...THERE IS NO SOUTHERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE TO FUEL ANY PCPN...WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWS LOW COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. SO...DON/T SEE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013 CURRENTLY WATCHING A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS IOWA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING INSTABILITY GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE HEATING. LOOKING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE GOING INTO LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AFTER 21-22Z TIME FRAME. SHRA/TS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MN AND THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE VCTS TREND FOR NOW IN THE TAFS DURING IN THE 21/22Z THROUGH 06Z...THEN TAPERING TO VCSH AFTERWARDS AS DEEPER INSTABILITY WANES. LOOKING AT PREVALENT VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z...THEN INTRODUCING SOME MVFR/IFR VIS AND CLOUD AFTERWARD THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013 FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN HIGH FOR THE AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL RIVERS IN FLOOD FROM OVERNIGHT PCPN. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MOSTLY SOUTH OF I-90. DIFFERING MESO MODEL SOLUTIONS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE REGION OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIE...BUT CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FAVOR NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI. BUT...VARIOUS OUTFLOW AND SFC BOUNDARIES WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLL IN WHERE CONVECTION FIRES...AND PICKING UP THEIR SMALLER SCALE FEATURES CAN BE DIFFICULT. WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING THROUGH 12Z...ALTHOUGH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT DOES APPEAR A LITTLE LESS NORTH OF I-90. WILL DROP THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST NORTH OF I-90...WHERE LESS RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT APPEARS LESS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR WIZ041>044- 053>055-061. MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MNZ086>088- 094>096. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018- 019-029-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION.....DAS HYDROLOGY....RIECK  FXUS63 KARX 042051 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 351 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013 CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JAMES BAY SOUTH THROUGH WISCONSIN AND EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TWO EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGES NOTED ONE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND ANOTHER NOTED OFF THE EAST COAST...EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. A SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACED A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SLOWLY SAGGING EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OFF OF THE EAST COAST...EXTENDING EAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EARLY EVENING...KEEPING A VERY CLOSE EYE ON ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST WISCONSN. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS A ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF AFTER WE LOSE SURFACE HEATING THIS EVENING. RUC ANALYSIS SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH NO CAP IN PLACE. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS VERY WEAK SO NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY...WE COULD SEE SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. AFTER THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATES THIS EVENING...LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH EDGES SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH IN THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 500 TO 1200 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE STRONGER CAPPING IN PLACE VERSUS VS...4TH OF JULY AFTERNOON. AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MOVES BETWEEN 800 AND 900 MB AND SHOULD HELP TO STRENGTHEN THE CAP. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION FROM FIRING BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE ON THIS. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013 THE SURFACE TROUGH EDGES SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD IMPACT LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM 09Z TO 12Z THEN LINGERING FROM 12Z TO 15Z OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE THE WAVE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE TROUGH STALLS OUT ON SATURDAY OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND STARTS TO ACT AS A WARM FROM AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE HIGHS PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 1500 TO 1900 J/KG RANGE. THERE REALLY ISNT ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING TO LATCH ONTO FOR STORMS TO BE TRIGGER BUT WITH ONLY A WEAK CAP IN PLACE IT WON/T TAKE MUCH FOR THEM TO GO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONGER WAVE PUSHES DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT RAMPS UP OVER CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...EDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ON SATURDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLY AND THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOLDS OVER THE EAST AND FOCUS INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS FOCUSED INTO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 160 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACH 4KM...SO ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK AGAIN...SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON SHEAR PROFILES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT GOING INTO SUNDAY. AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. A WARM FRONT STALLS OVER NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE AREA SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND RACES EAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AND POTENTIALLY SUPERCELLS WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASES TO TO 25 TO 35 KTS....SO KEEPING A CLOSE WATCH ON THIS TIMEFRAME. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND AND LOW MAINLY IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013 MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TODAY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF REGION THOUGH SOME HIGH BASED CU COULD FORM AT LSE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE THE BIGGEST ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE 16 TO 20KT RANGE. THESE WINDS WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING WITH SKIES REMAINING CLEAR...BUT THEN PICK BACK UP TOMORROW MORNING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION...HALBACH  FXUS63 KARX 052041 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 341 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013 LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH THROUGH ARKANSAS INTO EASTERN TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS ANCHORED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD. A RIDGE EXTENDED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE THE DAKOTAS. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES NOTED WITHIN THIS RIDGE AND WERE MOVING EAST. ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES WAS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT WAS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA...RIGHT ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST ONTARIO THROUGH NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SLIDING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. SHOWERS ATTEMPT TO EDGE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EARLY EVENING...BUT ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME TRYING TO OVERCOME SOME DRIER AIR. THE SHORTWAVE MEANDERS EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT BUT THE BETTER 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE OUT OF SOME HIGH BASED ACTIVITY ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER WEST CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ON SATURDAY AND ACTS AS A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST AREAS WILL BE LOCATED IN TH HEART OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH WARM AND HUMID AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION. 0-3 KM MUCAPE VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE CAP WEAKENS TO AROUND NEGATIVE 60 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. THE CAP IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND IS CLOSER TO A WEAKER WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013 THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL FIRE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND TRACK EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING AS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVES THROUGH. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 160 PERCENT OF NORMAL SUNDAY MORNING AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE TO 4000 TO 4200 METERS. SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS BUT SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE. THE COLD FRONT THEN SWINGS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY REALLY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND 3000 J/KG. OVERALL SHEAR ISN/T THAT GREAT...BUT HOVERS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE SHEAR IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. GETTING MIXED SIGNALS FROM THE FORECAST MODELS ON WHETHER OR NOT THE STORMS WOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE ON THIS THE NEXT SET OF RUNS. THE FRONT THEN SAGS SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND STALLS OVER NORTHERN IOWA INTO ILLINOIS. WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS A POTENT TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS THE TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OUT OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BRINGING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE AREA...RIGHT ALONG THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF TAKES THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND PULLS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BUT OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE NEXT FEW MODELS RUNS. SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. PLAN ON SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI JUL 5 2013 A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS IS TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND APPEARS SET TO REACH RST AROUND 20Z. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND COULD FALL APART BEFORE THEY EVEN REACH IT. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AND THE INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS SOME OF THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS THERE. THIS HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LINGER OVERNIGHT BUT BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. SOME RAIN SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES ARE BETTER THAT THEY WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...DIMINISHING AT NIGHT AND GUSTY TO AROUND 20KTS DURING THE DAY. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION...HALBACH  FXUS63 KARX 070818 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 318 AM CDT SUN JUL 7 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN JUL 7 2013 WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS MORNING SHOWING ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS WAVE HELPED TO DEVELOP AN AREA OF CONVECTION THAT IS NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF WISCONSIN. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE 07.00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AS THESE TWO WAVES MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE A LITTLE WITH SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON JUST HOW FAR EAST THE FRONT ACTUALLY PROGRESSES. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT A WEAK WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT COMING INTO THE AREA...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT IN THE HEATING OF THE DAY...BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING...NOT EXPECTING THE ACTIVITY TO BECOME VERY WIDESPREAD AND WILL ONLY SHOW RAIN CHANCES OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT. LITTLE CHANGE OCCURS TONIGHT AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE AND WITHOUT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO HELP FOCUS THE LOW LEVEL JET...IT NEVER REALLY GETS TO BE VERY STRONG WITH THE MODELS SHOWING IT TO BE FOCUSED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AGAIN...WILL ONLY CARRY A 20 TO 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA. SOME HINTS THAT THE FORCING MAY START TO GET BETTER MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES OVER THE PACIFIC OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST WILL ROUND THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ADVANCE INTO THE AREA. THE 07.00Z ECMWF ALSO SHOWS A SIMILAR TREND BUT IS SLOWER TO BRING THIS WAVE IN HOLDING IT BACK UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. HEIGHTS SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF AN ISENTROPIC RESPONSE AND THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD BE OFF TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. WILL ONLY SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE RAIN CHANCES WITH UP TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTH CLOSEST TO THE FRONT. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED AT THE AREA WITH THE FRONT SLOWLY RETREATING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER WILL BE BETWEEN 4 AND 10 PVU/S WITH THE PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A GENERAL 2 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. ONCE THIS WAVE MOVES OUT...A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN BEHIND IT. MODELS NOW SUGGEST THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL HAVE A POSITIVE TILT TO IT AS IT COMES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL REDUCE ITS FORCING SOME WITH THE ECMWF NOW SHOWING BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PVU/S OF VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER...WHICH IS DOWN SOME FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A SURFACE LOW EASTWARD ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN TUESDAY WITH A BROAD 2 TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. THIS SHOULD BE THE TIME PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO OCCUR AND WILL MAINTAIN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPTABLE WATERS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY STRONG AND SHOULD ALSO INTERSECT THE FRONT AT ABOUT A 45 DEGREE ANGLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST INSTEAD OF BEING ORTHOGONAL FROM THE SOUTH. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE FORECAST TO BE EXCELLENT WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING THESE WILL BE ABOUT 4 TO 4.5 KM. THE AREA HAS BEEN DRYING OUT LATELY AS EVIDENCED BY 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AROUND 3 INCHES AND THE 6 HOUR GUIDANCE UP TO ABOUT 4 INCHES. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THE SEVERE THREAT FOR TUESDAY. IF THERE IS ANY CLEARING THAT CAN OCCUR DURING THE DAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ML CAPES TO REBOUND INTO THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE TO 30-35 KNOTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER WITH MOST OF THIS RESIDING THE 0-3KM LAYER. MAIN THREATS SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A TORNADO ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND IF THE TRIPLE POINT CAN GET INTO THE AREA FROM THE SURFACE LOW. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT SUN JUL 7 2013 THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES THE SURFACE LOW AND MAIN BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA. DRIER AIR SHOULD THEN QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE REGION WITH MOST OF THE AREA LOOKING TO BE DRY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...THE WESTERN RIDGE LOOKS TO BE BUILD WITH THE NORTHERN RIDGE AXIS SPREADING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS CANADA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF BUT IS SLOWER TO MOVE THE CANADIAN LOW EAST AND THUS HOLDS ONTO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LONGER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2013 CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW ON ANY PRECIPITATION AFFECTING THE TAF SITES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A COUPLE OF ISSUES EXIST...INCLUDING DRY AIR FROM NEAR THE GROUND UP TO 8000 FT OR SO...MODEL HANDLING THUS FAR WHICH HAS GENERALLY SHOWN TOO MUCH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94 ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND SOME EVIDENCE RECENTLY OF ALTOSTRATUS FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN IOWA DISSIPATING. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER FOR THE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH. THERE MAY BE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FROM CENTRAL MN...HOWEVER...WARM AIR MOVING IN ALOFT OVER THE FRONT MAY CAP ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT TRY TO FORM. THUS...THE 06Z TAFS DO NOT SHOW ANY PRECIPITATION WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO PERSIST...GENERALLY 12 KT OR LESS...WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST PROMOTING LIGHTER WINDS COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...AJ  FXUS63 KARX 081948 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 250 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013 WARM FRONT SLATED TO WAVER WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IA TONIGHT/TUE. THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES INTO THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL IA TONIGHT...AND SHOWER/STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AS A RESULT. THE LOW LEVEL FORCING PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUE MORNING WHILE A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 12-18Z. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE REGION AS A RESULT...MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NORTHERN MN BY 00Z WED. A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...GETTING TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 00Z. THE GFS AND NAM BUILD 4000+ J/KG OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH 40+ KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. INSTABILITY WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AND HOW QUICKLY THE DEBRIS CLOUDS CLEAR. AS IT STANDS...IF PARAMETERS MANIFEST PER MODELED FORECAST...IT WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...IF PCPN LINGERS LINGERS...INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LOWER...LESSENING THE SEVERE THREAT. A VERY CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THAT WON/T BECOME CLEARER UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HERE IS HOW TUE COULD PLAY OUT...MORNING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET ADVANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT ENVISION A BREAK FROM THE WIDESPREAD PCPN CHANCES. SHOWERS/STORMS SPARK ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MAYBE A BETTER CHANCE NORTH OF I-94. ALSO...BELIEVE THE HIGHER SEVERE RISK WILL BE DURING THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF FRIDAY. THE HEAT/HUMIDITY OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL SWEEP EAST DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH COMPARATIVELY COOLER AND LESS MUGGY CONDITIONS RESULTING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN SLATED TO DRIVE FROM THE PAC NW TO ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE CURRENT TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD SLIDE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE WINDS FLIPPING TO THE SOUTH AS THE HIGH EEKS TO THE EAST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...AS WOULD INSTABILITY. EXPECT SOME CONVECTION AROUND THE FRONT AS RESULT. DETAILS ON WHEN/WHERE ISN/T CLEAR AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE RELEVANT FEATURES. THE SFC FRONT COULD THEN GET HUNG UP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...SERVING AS A POSSIBLE SHOWER/STORM FOCUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL LEAN ON THE CONSENSUS/EC SOLUTION FOR PCPN CHANCES FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013 MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS CONTINUED TO ERODE/IMPROVE WITH DIURNAL WARMING/ MIXING THRU THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS. THESE CLOUDS DECKS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL AS IMPROVING VSBYS AS WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COOL FRONT SPREADS SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MID AFTERNOON THRU EVENING HOURS. WITH THE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...LIGHT WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS EVENING...MVFR VSBYS IN BR EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT START TO RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH AN UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS BEING LIFTED NORTH/EAST OVER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. TREND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SLOW WITH THE WARM FRONT...FORCING AND MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHEAST...NOW LOOKING TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES MORE ON TUESDAY INTO TUE NIGHT. ONCE THE FORCING/MOISTURE ARRIVE...A BROAD BAND OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES. SPREAD VCTS/CB AND MVFR CIGS INTO THE TAF SITE IN THE 09-11Z TIME-FRAME THEN PREVAILED -SHRA AND VCTS/CB AFTER 11-13Z. THERE MAY BE A BREAK DURING THE LATE MORNING/ EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A COLD FRONT LOOKING TO BRING MORE SHRA/TSRA TO THE AREA FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF TUESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY...(TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013 PWS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES THROUGH TUE...AROUND 170 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WHILE WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS 3500-4000 M. ALL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED PCPN LOOKS TRANSITORY...NOT LINGERING NOR MUCH TRAINING....WHILE FFG IS 2.5-3 INCHES IN 3 HOURS. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ISN/T OVERLY STRONG NOR DOES IT FOCUS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD. SO...WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE COULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN...OTHER ASPECTS MINIMIZE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IF PCPN RATES COULD BECOME HIGH ENOUGH...FLASH FLOODING OR URBAN/CITY FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION.....RSS HYDROLOGY....DAS  FXUS63 KARX 090242 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 942 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013 TRYING TO FIGURE OUT THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FORECAST FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY REMAINS VERY PROBLEMATIC. FIRST...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SET UP JUST NORTH OF US-20 AND NEAR THE CLAYTON/GRANT COUNTY LINE. THESE STORMS WERE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AIDED BY MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG PER RAP ANALYSIS. THEY HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR BEING OBSERVED IN EDGEWOOD AND GREELEY IA. LACK OF ANY 0-6KM SHEAR HAS RESULTED IN THE STORMS COLLAPSING. ADDITIONALLY...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING THE CAPE TO DIMINISH...THOUGH DEWPOINTS UP IN THE MID 70S POOLED ALONG THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN A SLOW DIMINISHMENT. ANTICIPATING THESE STORMS MAY END UP FALLING PART IN THE NEXT HOUR. NOW FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA HAS BEEN MUCH LESS THAN WHAT MANY MODELS UP TO THIS POINT HAD SUGGESTED...INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. THUS...THE IDEA OF AN MCS ROLLING OUT OF THIS REGION AND IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONAL DATA...THERE IS A SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING IT. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...850MB WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER KANSAS AND NEBRASKA PER RADAR/PROFILER DATA...WITH HINTS OF A WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS SHOWN TOO IN LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS. ONCE THESE FEATURES MEET UP...LIKELY IN CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA...WOULD IMAGINE CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THERE. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HEAD EAST THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW TOWARDS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...UNLESS IT UPSCALES INTO AN MCS...WHICH THEN MAY HEAD SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA PER BOTH NORMAL CORFIDI VECTORS AND PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. HEADING INTO TUESDAY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM THE 09.00Z NAM/RAP...08.12Z ECMWF/REGIONAL CANADIAN AND 08.18Z GFS OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT PICKING UP ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA...WITH THE NOSE OF IT POINTED RIGHT INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT 18Z. THIS COULD CONCEIVABLY INITIATE PLENTY OF CONVECTION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH A BULK OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS GIVEN DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES. IF THIS CONVECTION FORMS...BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH MINNESOTA APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA IN THE EVENING...WE MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO DO MUCH WITH IT. WE WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PLAYS OUT...SINCE AN MCV GOING SOUTH OF US COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO PRECLUDE MUCH CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THE MCV WOULD LIKE DISTORT THE PROGGED 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ZONE TOO. TUESDAY THEN WOULD BE A VERY WARM DAY AGAIN WITH HIGHS ABOVE CURRENT FORECAST...WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013 WARM FRONT SLATED TO WAVER WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IA TONIGHT/TUE. THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES INTO THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL IA TONIGHT...AND SHOWER/STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AS A RESULT. THE LOW LEVEL FORCING PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUE MORNING WHILE A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 12-18Z. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE REGION AS A RESULT...MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NORTHERN MN BY 00Z WED. A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...GETTING TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 00Z. THE GFS AND NAM BUILD 4000+ J/KG OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH 40+ KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. INSTABILITY WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AND HOW QUICKLY THE DEBRIS CLOUDS CLEAR. AS IT STANDS...IF PARAMETERS MANIFEST PER MODELED FORECAST...IT WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...IF PCPN LINGERS LINGERS...INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LOWER...LESSENING THE SEVERE THREAT. A VERY CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THAT WON/T BECOME CLEARER UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HERE IS HOW TUE COULD PLAY OUT...MORNING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET ADVANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT ENVISION A BREAK FROM THE WIDESPREAD PCPN CHANCES. SHOWERS/STORMS SPARK ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MAYBE A BETTER CHANCE NORTH OF I-94. ALSO...BELIEVE THE HIGHER SEVERE RISK WILL BE DURING THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF FRIDAY. THE HEAT/HUMIDITY OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL SWEEP EAST DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH COMPARATIVELY COOLER AND LESS MUGGY CONDITIONS RESULTING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN SLATED TO DRIVE FROM THE PAC NW TO ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE CURRENT TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD SLIDE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE WINDS FLIPPING TO THE SOUTH AS THE HIGH EEKS TO THE EAST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...AS WOULD INSTABILITY. EXPECT SOME CONVECTION AROUND THE FRONT AS RESULT. DETAILS ON WHEN/WHERE ISN/T CLEAR AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE RELEVANT FEATURES. THE SFC FRONT COULD THEN GET HUNG UP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...SERVING AS A POSSIBLE SHOWER/STORM FOCUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL LEAN ON THE CONSENSUS/EC SOLUTION FOR PCPN CHANCES FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013 DAYTIME MIXING HAS HELPED TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS THAT WERE PRESENT DURING THE DAY TODAY AROUND THE TAF SITES. MUCH OF THE EVENING APPEARS IT SHOULD BE CLEAR...AND COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE HIGH 70 DEGREE F DEWPOINTS IN PLACE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME MVFR BR DEVELOPING AROUND MIDNIGHT. LATE IN THE NIGHT... NUMEROUS COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE TAF SITES. THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THESE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...THOUGH...WITH POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO DIVE MORE TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. CONSENSUS SEEMS TO SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL CROSS RST BETWEEN 11-17Z AND LSE BETWEEN 13-18Z. DID NOT CHANGE THE VCTS TO -TSRA YET BECAUSE OF CONCERN ON THE TRACK OF THE STORMS. AS THE THUNDERSTORM EVOLUTION BECOMES CLEARER ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...MORE DETAIL WILL BE PROVIDED TO THE TAFS. FOR THE AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER MORE STORMS BUT THESE MAY NOT MAKE INTO THE TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER 00Z. HOWEVER...WITH A MUGGY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING IN THE WAKE OF MORNING PRECIPITATION...ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM VFR CUMULUS MAY FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE A VCSH FROM 18-00Z IN BOTH TAFS. VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON TOO AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING. && .HYDROLOGY...(TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013 PWS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES THROUGH TUE...AROUND 170 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WHILE WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS 3500-4000 M. ALL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED PCPN LOOKS TRANSITORY...NOT LINGERING NOR MUCH TRAINING....WHILE FFG IS 2.5-3 INCHES IN 3 HOURS. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ISN/T OVERLY STRONG NOR DOES IT FOCUS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD. SO...WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE COULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN...OTHER ASPECTS MINIMIZE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IF PCPN RATES COULD BECOME HIGH ENOUGH...FLASH FLOODING OR URBAN/CITY FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AJ SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION...AJ HYDROLOGY....DAS  FXUS63 KARX 090453 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1153 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013 TRYING TO FIGURE OUT THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION FORECAST FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY REMAINS VERY PROBLEMATIC. FIRST...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SET UP JUST NORTH OF US-20 AND NEAR THE CLAYTON/GRANT COUNTY LINE. THESE STORMS WERE ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AIDED BY MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG PER RAP ANALYSIS. THEY HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR BEING OBSERVED IN EDGEWOOD AND GREELEY IA. LACK OF ANY 0-6KM SHEAR HAS RESULTED IN THE STORMS COLLAPSING. ADDITIONALLY...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING THE CAPE TO DIMINISH...THOUGH DEWPOINTS UP IN THE MID 70S POOLED ALONG THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN A SLOW DIMINISHMENT. ANTICIPATING THESE STORMS MAY END UP FALLING PART IN THE NEXT HOUR. NOW FOR THE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA HAS BEEN MUCH LESS THAN WHAT MANY MODELS UP TO THIS POINT HAD SUGGESTED...INCLUDING HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. THUS...THE IDEA OF AN MCS ROLLING OUT OF THIS REGION AND IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. LOOKING AT OBSERVATIONAL DATA...THERE IS A SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING IT. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...850MB WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER KANSAS AND NEBRASKA PER RADAR/PROFILER DATA...WITH HINTS OF A WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. THIS IS SHOWN TOO IN LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS. ONCE THESE FEATURES MEET UP...LIKELY IN CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA...WOULD IMAGINE CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THERE. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY HEAD EAST THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW TOWARDS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...UNLESS IT UPSCALES INTO AN MCS...WHICH THEN MAY HEAD SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA PER BOTH NORMAL CORFIDI VECTORS AND PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. HEADING INTO TUESDAY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM THE 09.00Z NAM/RAP...08.12Z ECMWF/REGIONAL CANADIAN AND 08.18Z GFS OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT PICKING UP ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA...WITH THE NOSE OF IT POINTED RIGHT INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT 18Z. THIS COULD CONCEIVABLY INITIATE PLENTY OF CONVECTION FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH A BULK OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS GIVEN DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES. IF THIS CONVECTION FORMS...BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH MINNESOTA APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA IN THE EVENING...WE MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO DO MUCH WITH IT. WE WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PLAYS OUT...SINCE AN MCV GOING SOUTH OF US COULD PRODUCE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO PRECLUDE MUCH CONVECTION IN ITS WAKE FOR TUESDAY. THE PRESENCE OF THE MCV WOULD LIKE DISTORT THE PROGGED 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ZONE TOO. TUESDAY THEN WOULD BE A VERY WARM DAY AGAIN WITH HIGHS ABOVE CURRENT FORECAST...WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013 WARM FRONT SLATED TO WAVER WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN IA TONIGHT/TUE. THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES INTO THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL IA TONIGHT...AND SHOWER/STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AS A RESULT. THE LOW LEVEL FORCING PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUE MORNING WHILE A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRACKS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN 12-18Z. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE REGION AS A RESULT...MOSTLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGGED TO SLIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO NORTHERN MN BY 00Z WED. A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...GETTING TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 00Z. THE GFS AND NAM BUILD 4000+ J/KG OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH 40+ KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. INSTABILITY WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...AND HOW QUICKLY THE DEBRIS CLOUDS CLEAR. AS IT STANDS...IF PARAMETERS MANIFEST PER MODELED FORECAST...IT WOULD BE A GOOD SETUP FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...IF PCPN LINGERS LINGERS...INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH LOWER...LESSENING THE SEVERE THREAT. A VERY CONDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THAT WON/T BECOME CLEARER UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HERE IS HOW TUE COULD PLAY OUT...MORNING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET ADVANCES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT ENVISION A BREAK FROM THE WIDESPREAD PCPN CHANCES. SHOWERS/STORMS SPARK ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MAYBE A BETTER CHANCE NORTH OF I-94. ALSO...BELIEVE THE HIGHER SEVERE RISK WILL BE DURING THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF FRIDAY. THE HEAT/HUMIDITY OF THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL SWEEP EAST DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH COMPARATIVELY COOLER AND LESS MUGGY CONDITIONS RESULTING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN SLATED TO DRIVE FROM THE PAC NW TO ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WHILE CURRENT TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD SLIDE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE WINDS FLIPPING TO THE SOUTH AS THE HIGH EEKS TO THE EAST...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...AS WOULD INSTABILITY. EXPECT SOME CONVECTION AROUND THE FRONT AS RESULT. DETAILS ON WHEN/WHERE ISN/T CLEAR AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE RELEVANT FEATURES. THE SFC FRONT COULD THEN GET HUNG UP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION...SERVING AS A POSSIBLE SHOWER/STORM FOCUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL LEAN ON THE CONSENSUS/EC SOLUTION FOR PCPN CHANCES FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013 THE AVIATION FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... PARTICULARLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR AT THE TAF SITES AS OF 056Z. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL SITTING UP AROUND 70F AND TEMPERATURES COOLING...ANTICIPATING MVFR BR TO FORM AROUND 09Z. TO THE WEST...CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO NEBRASKA. THESE ARE DEVELOPING AND MOVING SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS COMPUTER MODELS HAVE FORECAST...THUS HAVE DELAYED THE TIMING OF THEM IMPACTING THE TAF SITES EVEN MORE. PRESENTLY HAVE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACTING RST BETWEEN 13-17Z AND LSE BETWEEN 14-18Z. STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO CHANGE THE VCTS TO -TSRA GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A GENERAL BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH SOME COMPUTER MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINTAINED A VCSH. WITH THE COLD FRONT HAVE ADDED A PERIOD OF VCTS FOR ABOUT 4 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THIS IS TOO LONG...BUT THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES ON THE TIMING AND IT DOES APPEAR THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON IT. REGARDING THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS. THOSE DURING THE MORNING WILL LIKELY KNOCK VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO MVFR AND HAVE TO POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. THOSE FOR THE EVENING COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF VISIBILITY RESTRICTION. && .HYDROLOGY...(TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2013 PWS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES THROUGH TUE...AROUND 170 PERCENT OF NORMAL...WHILE WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS 3500-4000 M. ALL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED PCPN LOOKS TRANSITORY...NOT LINGERING NOR MUCH TRAINING....WHILE FFG IS 2.5-3 INCHES IN 3 HOURS. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ISN/T OVERLY STRONG NOR DOES IT FOCUS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD. SO...WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE COULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN...OTHER ASPECTS MINIMIZE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IF PCPN RATES COULD BECOME HIGH ENOUGH...FLASH FLOODING OR URBAN/CITY FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...AJ SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION...AJ HYDROLOGY....DAS  FXUS63 KARX 141950 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 250 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY. CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA...AN UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN MN INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THE BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. 500MB HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...NEARING 600 DAM OR 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. DESPITE THE SUBSTANTIAL 500MB HEIGHTS...850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 15-18C UNDERNEATH IT PER 12Z RAOBS OR NEAR 1 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS BEEN PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS. TO OUR WEST...A STREAM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.65 TO 2 INCHES PER GOES DERIVED IMAGERY STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MN. THIS STREAM OF HIGH MOISTURE IS CO-LOCATED WITH THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DEFORMATION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT IN THE STREAM. EXPECT THE RETROGRADING 500MB PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...SUCH THAT BY 00Z TUESDAY MODELS FORECAST THE BERMUDA HIGH TO BE SITUATED NEAR THE OHIO/INDIANA BORDER. THIS RETROGRESSION MEANS 500MB HEIGHTS ARE GOING TO RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA... IMPLYING SUBSIDENCE. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT BEING IN THE NOCTURNAL COOLING PERIOD AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. ON MONDAY...DESPITE BEING UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE OF THE RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...NEARLY EVERY MODEL DEPICTS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 18Z-00Z OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE REASONING FOR THE PRECIPITATION IS A COMBINATION OF FACTORS: 1. SOUTHEAST WINDS ADVECTING IN 70+ SURFACE DEWPOINTS...WHICH ARE ACCOMPANYING THE BERMUDA HIGH AND ENHANCED BY EVAPOTRANSPORATION FROM VEGETATION. 2. STREAM OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.8 TO 2 INCHES COMING UP OUT OF GEORGIA AND ALABAMA CURRENTLY. 3. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINING WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO BUILD UP INSTABILITY. MIXING TO 850MB TEMPS OF 16-17C SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. 4. SOUNDINGS DEPICT NO CAPPING LOOKING AT VARIOUS PRESSURE LEVELS FOR CONVERGENCE...IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY. THUS...IT APPEARS THE LACK OF CAPPING AND THE HIGHER DEEPER MOISTURE ITSELF WILL RESULT IN POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 20 KT MEANS THESE STORMS ARE GOING TO BE PULSE AND NON-SEVERE...WITH OUTFLOWS PRODUCING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PRECIPITATION IS BRIEF HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013 THE RETROGRESSION 500MB PATTERN CONTINUES FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. 14.12Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS AND 14.00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALL SHOW THAT THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK...SUCH THAT BY LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND TROUGHING DOMINATES MUCH OF CANADA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... CONVECTION THAT FORMED MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE PRETTY QUICK IN THE EVENING...LIKELY BY 03Z...AS THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING DIMINISHES THE INSTABILITY. THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS DRY WITH THE MAIN FORCING FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE DAKOTAS. A SIMILAR SETUP TO MONDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO OCCUR FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER GIVEN 850MB TEMPS PROGGED BETWEEN 18-19C...AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES DUE TO THESE READINGS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF...AND THIS APPEARS TO STEM FROM PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT ARE 0.25-0.5 INCH LOWER. GIVEN THAT THE 14.12Z NAM WHICH IS USUALLY AGGRESSIVE IN THESE SCENARIOS AND HAPPENS TO BE DRY...AND COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WENT DRY FOR TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE BREEZES RUNNING INTO THE UNSTABLE AIR. A COMPLETE REPEAT OF THE WEATHER HAPPENS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND HERE AGAIN MODELS ARE NOT THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON STEMMING FROM SIMILAR PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO TUESDAY. REMOVED THE 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY. SAFE TO SAY THAT IF INDEED NO PRECIPITATION HAPPENS TUESDAY... WEDNESDAY WILL END UP DRY TOO. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING AROUND 19C...YIELDING READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. WITH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND HIGHS IN UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB INTO THE 95-100 RANGE. THESE ARE JUST UNDER HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SHOULD EITHER DEWPOINTS OR TEMPERATURES GET HIGHER THAN FORECAST...HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THE PROGGED SWITCH IN THE UPPER FLOW TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWS A COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER NORTHERN MN AND UPPER MI ON WEDNESDAY TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH. THE TIMING OF WHEN THIS BOUNDARY CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE MODULATED BY A SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH COULD STALL OR EVEN SEND THE FRONT BACK NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY THE 14.00Z/14.12Z ECMWF. MOST MODELS AGREE ON A TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH PERHAPS THE FRONT COMING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD OF AND AROUND THE BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS A PLUME OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.75-2 INCHES...DEFINITELY NEED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLE MCS ACTIVITY TOO...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT NORTH OF I-90 WHICH IS WHERE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE ON THE ORDER OF 50-60. ONE PORTION OF THE FORECAST WHERE CHANCES MAY BE ABLE TO BE REMOVED IS FRIDAY NIGHT...SINCE THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION GETTING OUT OF THE AREA IN TIME. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR SUNDAY WITH INDICATIONS OF SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. HAVE FOLLOWED A MODEL CONSENSUS OF 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES FOR NOW. SOME SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES PROGGED OF 30-35 KT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-90 SEEM TO BE CENTERED ON HAVING THE MOST RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH IS AN AREA THAT NOT ONLY CAN HANDLE THE RAIN BUT NEEDS IT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ARE QUITE TRICKY. 850MB TEMPS UPWARDS OF 20C COULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO EVEN PERHAPS MID 90S...AND WITH DEWPOINTS UP IN THE LOW 70S WOULD YIELD HEAT INDICES AGAIN IN THE 95-100 RANGE. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONVECTION TO WORRY ABOUT...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. THUS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FORECAST IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AT THIS TIME. 850MB TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 13-15C RANGE FOR SATURDAY AND ONLY CLIMBING ABOUT 1C HIGHER ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES...UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 14 2013 MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS WORKED IN AS DRIER AREAS ARE SHUNTED OR SQUEEZED OUT FOR THE TIME BEING. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD ACTUALLY PRODUCE SOME VFR CEILINGS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGHER DEW POINTS COULD ALSO LEAD TO MORE LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT WITH SOME AREAS REACHING MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY. FOG COULD BE MORE DENSE IN SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN FAVORED VALLEYS. MORE DIURNAL CUMULUS EXPECTED MONDAY...AND PERHAPS EVEN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW POP UP SHOWERS BUT WILL NOT INTRODUCE INTO TAFS THAT FAR OUT. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION.....SHEA  FXUS63 KARX 151949 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 249 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2013 CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z... WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED TROUGHING OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE RETROGRADING WESTWARD...AND A NEAR 600 DAM HIGH NEAR TOLEDO OHIO ALSO RETROGRADING WESTWARD. STANDARD DEVIATIONS AGAIN WITH THIS HIGH ARE RUNNING 2.5 ABOVE NORMAL. BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH...DEEP LAYER SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ADVECTING HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA. 12Z DVN AND ILX REPORTED VALUES OF 1.89 AND 2.04 INCHES RESPECTIVELY. HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S HAVE ACCOMPANIED THIS DEEP MOISTURE. WITH TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S... RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED. NO LIGHTNING YET...WHICH MAY BE A RESULT OF THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE SHOWERS AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS PREVENTING ICE PRODUCTION. DESPITE THE HIGH 500MB HEIGHTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...ON THE ORDER OF 594-597 DAM...850MB TEMPS ARE ONLY 16-17C. THE REASON THESE ARE COOL COMPARED TO THE 500MB HEIGHT IS A RESULT OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BEING OF ATLANTIC OCEAN ORIGIN. HAD IT COME OUT OF THE WESTERN U.S....THE 850MB TEMPS WOULD BE A LOT HIGHER. SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH DRIFTING WESTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY...REACHING NEAR GARY INDIANA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THUS...500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...IMPLYING INCREASING MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE. FOR TONIGHT... ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION THAT IS SPREADING NORTHWARD...ACCOMPANYING THE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER...WILL DIMINISH BY 03Z THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING SINCE IT IS HIGHLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THE REST OF THE NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH ANY FORCING FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON TUESDAY... THE BATTLE CONTINUES OF WHETHER OR NOT TO NEED A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS WERE A LITTLE HYPERACTIVE WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION TODAY...ESPECIALLY THE 15.12Z NAM SHOWING PRECIP ACROSS ALL OF ILLINOIS BY 15Z AND THERE WAS NONE IN REALITY. ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF MUCH LESS QPF...AND THE 15.12Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY FORECAST FOR THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE OTHER NEGATIVES TOO FOR CONVECTION...BEING CLOSER TO THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...AND 0.25-0.5 INCH DRYING OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ORIGINATING FROM EASTERN KY/TN THIS MORNING. SEEING THE DRY FORECAST FROM THE NAM...THE 15.12Z CANADIAN WHICH DID A GOOD JOB WITH PRECIP TODAY AND IS DRY FOR TUESDAY...ALONG WITH OTHER MODELS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IF ANY QPF...WENT BACK TO A DRY FORECAST. 850MB TEMPS ARE 2C HIGHER TOMORROW...BETWEEN 18-19C...SO WE SHOULD SEE ABOUT A SIMILAR INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. DEWPOINTS UP IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AND THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PLENTY OF CUMULUS...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY MAKE IT FEEL MUGGY. HEAT INDICES ARE STILL FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE 95-100 RANGE. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2013 SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW... MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH RETROGRADING ACTUALLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO FIRST THE TROUGH IN SOUTHWEST CANADA MARCHING EAST-NORTHEAST AND FLATTENING THE RIDGE...AND FINALLY AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF SAN FRANSISCO DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD BE LOOKING AT TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES VERSUS THE CURRENT RIDGING. HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INDICATIONS ARE THAT A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. HAZARDS... HEAT INDICES REMAIN THE BIG CONCERN. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK SOLID TO HAVE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 95-100...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA REQUIRES 100 OR GREATER FOR 1 DAY OR GREATER THAN 95 FOR 4 OR MORE DAYS. THE MORE LIKELY OF THE TWO OPTIONS TO HIT WOULD BE DURATION. HEAT INDICES ONLY TOPPED OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S TODAY...SO THAT MEANS FRIDAY WOULD NEED 95 OR GREATER. WITH CONCERN OF THE FRONT AND CONVECTION COMING THROUGH FRIDAY...HAVE REFRAINED AT THIS TIME FROM ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO DISCUSS THE HEAT. NOTE THAT THIS TIME PERIOD OF 15TH THROUGH 18TH OF JULY IS COMMONLY THE TIME TO GET HEAT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER TOO IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WOULD BE MORE TO THE NORTH...PERHAPS JUST TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES AS ALSO SHOWN IN THE SPC DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK. FRIDAY IT ALL DEPENDS ON THE FRONTAL TIMING. ADDITIONALLY...THE BEST 0-6KM SHEAR IS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH ONLY 30-35 KT ON THE FRONT. SO IT WOULD SEEM THAT OVERALL ANY SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE ISOLATED WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN HAZARDS. DAILY DETAILS... TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE SOUTHWEST CANADA TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO NORTHERN MN BY 12Z WED AND THEN LAY UP BETWEEN ST CLOUD MN AND UPPER MI LATE WEDNESDAY. ENVISIONING CONVECTION ON THIS BOUNDARY...DUE TO PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AROUND IT... ALONG WITH LAKE BREEZE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE. GIVEN ITS LOCATION... ANTICIPATING ANY CONVECTION TO STAY UP TO THE NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TAYLOR COUNTY FOR A NEED FOR SOME CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN LATER FORECASTS SHOULD THE BOUNDARY DROP FARTHER SOUTH. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN FALL A LITTLE MORE COMPARED TO TUESDAY...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION. WITH CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...850MB TEMPS CLIMB ABOUT ANOTHER 1C...WHICH WITH PLENTY OF SUN SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... THIS PERIOD APPEARS A BIT MORE MUDDLED / LESS CONFIDENCE / THAN BEFORE. WITH A ZONAL UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT SITUATED UP TO OUR NORTH APPEARS LIKELY TO STAY IN PLACE. IN FACT...ON THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE DAKOTAS...THE FRONT COULD EVEN GET PROPELLED NORTHWARD. 15.12Z ECMWF/GFS/NAM/UKMET/CANADIAN ALL DEPICT THE NOSE/GRADIENT OF THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT STAYING FOCUSED FROM NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN WI/UPPER MI AND LOWER MI FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FIGURE CONVECTION WOULD EITHER BE TIED TO THE FRONT OR NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT...WHICH BOTH SUGGEST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CORFIDI VECTORS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT TOO IN TERMS OF SPEEDS WITH DIRECTIONS MAINLY WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST...SO IF AN MCS FORMS IT COULD END UP STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA AS WELL. GIVEN ALL OF THIS...HAVE DECIDED TO SHIFT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES NORTHWARD...WHICH MEANS A REDUCTION ACROSS THE BOARD. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ALL STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD STAY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH 850MB TEMPS OF 18-20C. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... GOOD AGREEMENT REMAINS ABOUT THE COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT THIS FRONT COULD COME THROUGH DRY SEEING THE 15.00Z ECMWF. THREE NEGATIVES WITH THIS FRONT FOR CONVECTION IS THE POSITIVELY TITLED NATURE OF THE SHORTWAVE...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND THAT THE TIMING MAY BE MESSED UP. FOR NOW LEFT A MODEL CONSENSUS 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL INDICATED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BEING UNDER UPPER TROUGHING YIELDS CONCERNS FOR SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH AT PEAK HEATING AND INITIATING CONVECTION. THE 15.00Z ECMWF HINTED AT THIS FOR SATURDAY...BUT THE 15.12Z RUN IS NOW DRY. WITH A DRY GFS FORECAST...HAVE KEPT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT DRY. MUCH OF SUNDAY MAY BE DRY TOO...THOUGH THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM THE 15.12Z ECMWF OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MN BRINGING CONVECTION TO LOCATIONS MAINLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THUS...HAD TO KEEP SOME LOW CHANCES THERE. ADDITIONAL CHANCES IN THE 20-40 RANGE ARE FORECAST INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE. TIMING IS STILL YET TO BE DETERMINED ON THIS SHORTWAVE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2013 NOT MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT STILL POSSIBLE. THE 15.15Z RAP CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ALONG WITH SOME WEAKENING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY POPPED UP NORTH OF THE TAF SITES WHERE THERE IS SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL MISS THE TAF SITES BUT SINCE VCSH ALREADY INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST WILL LEAVE IT IN. WILL INCLUDE SOME MVFR VISIBILITY FOR FOG OVERNIGHT AS THE 15.12Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS SATURATION OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE FOR BOTH SITES. HOWEVER...THE 15.15Z RAP DOES NOT SHOW THIS AND BOTH MODELS ALSO HAVE WINDS OF 10+ KNOTS NOT FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE. BETTER CHANCE FOR THE VALLEY TO DECOUPLE AT KLSE SO HAVE GONE WITH A CATEGORICAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTION THERE WHILE JUST INCLUDING IT IN A TEMPO GROUP AT KLSE. SHOULD SEE SOME LATE MORNING CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY BUT WILL LET LATER FORECASTS DETAIL THIS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...04  FXUS63 KARX 010829 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 329 AM CDT THU AUG 1 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU AUG 1 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES. A TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER NORTHERN CANADA EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA SOUTHEAST THROUGH ONTARIO INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES PLACING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES NOTED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WITH A LEADING WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND HEADED SOUTHEAST AND SET TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY. THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY THEN PUSH EAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/IOWA TONIGHT. THE SOUTHERN WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AREAS SOUTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 94...WITH HIGHER CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. A WARM FRONT WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES INTO THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IOWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT AND TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST THINKING IS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 140 PERCENT OF NORMAL WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASING TO 3.7 KM. 0-3 KM MUCAPE VALUES CLIMB TO 1200 J/KG OVER NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WITH VALUES OF AROUND 900 J/KG JUST EDGING INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 80 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU AUG 1 2013 NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WARM FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR THE I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO EDGE NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY IMPACT NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE NAM IS REALLY THE OUTLIER WITH THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY...SHOWING IT JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. FELT THIS IS JUST WAY TOO FAR NORTH AND HAVE SIDED MORE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PROVIDING MAINLY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE REGION. SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS COOLER 850 MB AIR SETTLES IN OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PLAN ON HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SEVERAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TRACKING OVER THE REGION...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THINKING ANY IMPACTS FROM THESE WAVES WOULD MAINLY BE AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD. THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FEATURE. THE ECMWF OFFERS THE FASTEST SOLUTION...SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...THEN BRINGS THE WAVE IN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL LEAN TOWARD A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT WED JUL 31 2013 VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION...BAUMGARDT  FXUS63 KARX 261547 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1145 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 .UPDATED... ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 RAINFALL UP TO 3 INCHES FELL ACROSS PARTS OF TAYLOR COUNTY THIS MORNING. WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY WAVERING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD FIRE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...JUST NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION...LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THEN TONIGHT...A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO ROLL EAST/SOUTHEAST FORM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO ACROSS NORTHERN WI. WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 4000 M AND PWS UPWARDS OF 200 PERCENT...ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. TRAINING STORMS ARE LIKELY. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TAYLOR COUNTRY TONIGHT. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS MCS TONIGHT...IT COULD GO NORTH OF THE AREA. BUT ENOUGH OF A THREAT WHERE A WATCH IS WARRANTED. .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 ..CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z.. WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EASTERN PACIFIC...AND STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER KANSAS AND MISSOURI. MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES CONTINUES TO STREAM OUT OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...UP THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH 700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUPPORTING CONVECTION TRACKING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WI AND UPPER MICHIGAN. REGARDING MOISTURE...GOES DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWED VALUES OF 1.5-2 INCHES FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AIRMASS IS ALSO VERY WARM WITH 850MB TEMPS FROM 00Z RAOBS OF 22-24C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND 24-28C OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR...SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT POSITIONED OVER FAR NORTHERN WI...A SOUTHERLY BREEZE HAS ONLY ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THIS SAME SOUTHERLY BREEZE HAS ADVECTED IN SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS...WHICH HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 60S...LOWEST IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. 00Z DVN SOUNDING REALLY SHOWED THE DRIER AIR COMPARED TO MPX. ..MODEL VERIFICATION.. HAVE INCLUDED THIS SECTION AS IT HAS HIGH IMPORTANCE WITH THE FORECAST OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTION. LOOKING AT 00Z RAOBS FOR 925MB TEMPS AND COMPARING TO 25.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE...THE ECMWF WAS THE BEST WITH ALMOST NO ERROR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE GFS WAS GENERALLY 1-2C TOO HIGH. LASTLY...THE NAM/RAP WERE THE WORST...HAVING ERRORS ON THE ORDER OF 3-6C... HIGHEST AT MSP. BECAUSE THE NAM/RAP WERE TOO HIGH...IT BROKE THE CAP AND BROUGHT THE CONVECTION WAY TOO FAR SOUTH. ..HAZARDS.. 1. HEAT. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TODAY AND WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW 70S...HEAT INDICES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 100-105 RANGE. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES LOOK TO OCCUR FROM LAKE CITY DOWN TO LA CROSSE...AND HAVE UPGRADED THIS AREA TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING. 2. STORMS. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES. HAVE TO WATCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS TOO. ..SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW.. 26.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING RETROGRADES JUST SLIGHTLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN FEATURE OF FOCUS IS A STRETCHED OUT SHORTWAVE IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW...LOCATED FROM EASTERN UTAH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING. MODELS BRING THIS SHORTWAVE INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 00Z AND PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN UPPER MI BY 12Z. THIS SHORTWAVE HELPS TO LIFT A SURFACE LOW SITTING NEAR THE BLACK HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA TO NEAR MINNEAPOLIS BY 12Z TUE. ..DETAILS.. FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTION TODAY WILL LIE ON THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT IN NORTHERN WI. FIRST OFF...THE CURRENT CONVECTION CROSSING FAR NORTHERN WI AND UPPER MI COULD DROP INTO TAYLOR AND POSSIBLY CLARK COUNTY BEFORE WEAKENING THIS MORNING. THE OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH TOWARDS I-94 THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...THE NEXT QUESTION IS IF THE AIRMASS IS CAPPED...WHICH ENTIRELY DEPENDS ON HOW WARM WE GET. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUN TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MAYBE A FEW STRAY CIRRUS CLOUDS. ECMWF 925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED ABOUT 1-2C HIGHER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THUS ANTICIPATING HIGHS TO BE ABOUT 1-3F HIGHER... YIELDING READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. A FEW SPOTS LIKE LSE COULD EVEN HIT THE UPPER 90S. ECMWF ALSO DID VERY WELL WITH THE DEWPOINTS YESTERDAY AND SUGGESTS THEY SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOW 70S IN THE AFTERNOON...DUE TO EVAPOTRANSPORATION AND THE HIGHER MOISTURE TO OUR NORTHWEST SLIDING SOUTH. THE FORECAST HIGHS AND DEWPOINTS WOULD SEEM TO POINT TO POTENTIAL FOR THE CAP TO BREAK...THUS HAVE INCLUDED 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES ON THE WARM FRONT FOR THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...0-6KM SHEAR IS ONLY 25 KT AT BEST WITH 0-3KM NEAR 20KT. THIS MEANS THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE UNORGANIZED AND MOST LIKELY JUST HEAVY RAIN MAKERS GIVEN HIGH CAPE AND NEAR 2 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATERS. TONIGHT IS A BIT MORE INTERESTING. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE GRAND FORKS AREA IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS CONVECTION...AIDED ALSO BY 700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIKE THE CONVECTION GOING OVER UPPER MI...SHOULD TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WI. THIS MEANS TAYLOR/CLARK COULD BE IMPACTED BY THE COMPLEX AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD FORM ON THE NOSE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH OF I-94 THIS EVENING AS WELL. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SEVERE WEATHER...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES APPROACH 30-40 KT. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY...CAPPED AND WARM WITH A SOUTHERLY BREEZE PERSISTING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE SIMILAR TO NOW GIVEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 ..HAZARDS.. 1. HEAT...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP ADVECT BOTH SOMEWHAT COOLER AND MORE IMPORTANTLY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. HEAT LOOKS TO RETURN DURING LABOR DAY WEEKEND. 2. STORMS. THOSE ON TUESDAY COULD POSE A SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT NORTH OF I-94. ..SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW.. 26.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK...ENDING UP IN COLORADO ON FRIDAY. THIS RETROGRESSION IS IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DROPPING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST IN RESPONSE TO WHAT LOOKS TO BE A VERY DEEP TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 26.00Z ECMWF THROWS A MAJOR CURVE BALL TO THE WEEKEND PLAN...DEVIATING GREATLY FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN IN SHOWING A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY. THE REASON IS RELATED TO THIS TROUGH BEING STRONGER AND TRACKING FARTHER SOUTH COMING OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA ON FRIDAY...COMPARED TO IT\S PREVIOUS RUN...THE 26.00Z GFS AND CANADIAN. NOT READY TO FULLY BUY INTO THE 26.00Z ECMWF QUITE YET BEFORE SEEING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND ITS NEXT RUN. ..DETAILS.. THE SURFACE OVER CENTRAL MN AT 12Z TUESDAY WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE AND CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN WI/UPPER MI DROPPING SOUTHEAST. HAVE KEPT SOME CHANCES ON TUESDAY NORTHEAST OF I-94 FOR THE CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTHEAST...WHICH COULD BE SEVERE AS WELL. THE REST OF THE AREA LOOKS CAPPED. TALKING ABOUT THE CAPPING...925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO REACH ABOUT 28C ON I-94 TO 30C IN NORTHEAST IOWA. THESE READINGS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 90S...WARMEST IN RIVER VALLEYS. THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY NEED EXPANSION INTO SOME OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WI IF TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS CONTINUE. ALL CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THUS WENT DRY THEN. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY\S LOW AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. 925MB TEMPS OF 24-26C STILL SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...THOUGH. DEWPOINTS MAY STILL BE UP IN THE LOW 70S OVER NORTHEAST IOWA...BUT HEAT INDICES ARE MORE AROUND 95 VERSUS THE 100-105 AS OF LATE. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FEATURE A GRADUAL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN...WHICH MEANS A RETURN FOR SOME CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CHANCES ARE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT OVER WISCONSIN WHERE THERE APPEARS TO BE A JUXTAPOSITION OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FORCING...A POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SOME OF THESE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ABLE TO BE BETTER REFINED...IN TERMS OF DRYING SOME OUT...OVER THE COMING DAYS AS MODELS SETTLE INTO THE TIMING OF THE WARM ADVECTION. ONCE THE WARM AIR COMES IN...WE WILL HAVE TO BE CONCERNED WITH HEAT ADVISORIES...AS EVEN THE NEW 26.00Z ECMWF SHOWS 925MB TEMPS APPROACHING 30C OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY. SUNDAY AND THE REST OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND FORECAST IS NOW UP IN THE AIR DUE TO THE NEW 26.00Z ECMWF. PREVIOUSLY AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 26.00Z GFS IT APPEARED MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH 925MB TEMPS OF 29-32C WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS AROUND 100. IF THE NEW ECMWF IS RIGHT...WE GET A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MORE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. MONDAY ENDS UP MUCH MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S. COMPARE THIS TO IT\S PREVIOUS 4 RUNS SHOWING 94-98 AT LA CROSSE FOR MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT KLSE TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE BY 26.14Z AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS...AND THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION DISSIPATES THROUGH DIURNAL MIXING. FOR TODAY...EXPECT ONLY SCATTERED 15K FOOT CLOUDS. WINDS WILL GUST FROM SOUTHWEST INTO THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. AFTER 27.07Z...THERE IS CONCERN THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP AT KLSE AS THE WINDS DROP TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BELOW THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ALOFT. THE GFS HAS THIS JET CLIMBING INTO THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE. MEANWHILE THE NAM/WRF HAS THIS JET STRENGTHENING INTO THE 40 TO 45 KNOT RANGE. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS JET...HELD OFF MENTIONING IT. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013 THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR LA CROSSE AND ROCHESTER THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND...GIVEN THE HEAT FORECAST. FOR MORE CLIMATE INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBSITE AND THE TOP NEWS STORY ON THE HEAT. LA CROSSE ROCHESTER --------- --------- MON 8/26 96/1991 95/1955 TUE 8/27 95/1973 93/1984 WED 8/28 97/1955 96/1955 THU 8/29 95/1966 92/2012 FRI 8/30 97/2012 96/1941 SAT 8/31 95/1953 93/1960 SUN 9/1 98/1913 94/1937 MON 9/2 98/1937 94/1929 NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE 78-80 AT LA CROSSE AND 76-78 AT ROCHESTER. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ017-029- 034-042>044-053>055-061. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ032-033-041. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WIZ017. MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ086-087- 094-095. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ079-088-096. IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR IAZ008>011- 018-019-029-030. && $$ UPDATE.......RIECK SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM....AJ AVIATION.....BOYNE CLIMATE......WETENKAMP  FXUS63 KARX 262034 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 334 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL CONCERNS ARE ON HEAT INDICES THROUGH TUESDAY. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR MOORHEAD MINNESOTA THEN EXTENDING EAST...JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR...THEN RUNNING EAST TO JUST ALONG THE WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 64 CORRIDOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS EAST NORTH DAKOTA AND HEADING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING...FIRST OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS THE SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH THE WARM FROM...THEN SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES EAST. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.8 TO 2.3...WHICH IS AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ALSO...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE TO 4.5 KM THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES INTO THE FRONT THIS EVENING. THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. LOCATIONS OVER TAYLOR COUNTY....ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM JUMP RIVER...TO MEDFORD...TO GAD...SAW RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO ALMOST 3 INCHES EARLY THIS MORNING. GIVEN THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS PRECONDITIONING THESE AREAS...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TAYLOR COUNTY FROM 00Z THIS EVENING THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 30 TO 35 KTS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE FURTHER TO AROUND 45 KTS LATE TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THINKING INITIALLY THE PRIMARY HAZARDS THIS EVENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SUPERCELLS LOOK TO INITIATE OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING THEN RACE EAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...FORMING INTO BOWING STRUCTURES WITH DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD BUILD SOUTH AS IT APPROACHES WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THINKING MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND POSSIBLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH OUT FLOW BOUNDARIES WOULD GET FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH HOT SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING UNTIL A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE ISN/T MUCH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SO NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PROVIDING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ON THE UNCOMFORTABLE SIDE...CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEWPOINTS ALSO GRADUALLY FALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW USHERS IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA AS IT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN STALLS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTERACTS WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES AS UPPER RIDGING PUSHES EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH LABOR DAY. THE GFS IS SHOWING WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S. ON THE OTHER HAND THE ECMWF SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY...THEN FALLING INTO MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. THE GFS WOULD KEEP US IN THE 90S ON SUNDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT FINALLY SLIDES THROUGH ON MONDAY AND COOLS HIGHS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH POSSIBLY HEAT HEADLINES NEEDED AGAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE WATCH ON MODEL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 WITH A SFC FRONT EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF KRST/KLSE THROUGH TONIGHT/WED...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STAY CAPPED...KEEPING SHRA/TS TO THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED. COULD SEE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME...ESPECIALLY LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED. FOR WINDS...SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS DAYS. SOME CONCERN FOR LLWS AT KLSE/KRST TONIGHT AS NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WINDS INCREASE TO 40+ KTS BY 1500 FT. GFS AND RAP ARE NOT AS BULLISH THOUGH...ABOUT 10 KTS LESS. WITHOUT MORE CONSENSUS...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. WILL KEEP OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW...BUT THE POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. && .HYDROLOGY...THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY EARLY MONDAY MORNING PRODUCING 2 TO NEARLY 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE SAME AREAS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.8 TO 2.3 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4.5 KM. ALSO...850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES INTO A WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHICH COULD RESULT IN REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TAYLOR COUNTY FROM 7PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 7AM TUESDAY. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORD HIGHS FOR LA CROSSE AND ROCHESTER THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND...GIVEN THE HEAT FORECAST. FOR MORE CLIMATE INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBSITE AND THE TOP NEWS STORY ON THE HEAT. LA CROSSE ROCHESTER --------- --------- TUE 8/27 95/1973 93/1984 WED 8/28 97/1955 96/1955 THU 8/29 95/1966 92/2012 FRI 8/30 97/2012 96/1941 SAT 8/31 95/1953 93/1960 SUN 9/1 98/1913 94/1937 MON 9/2 98/1937 94/1929 NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE 78-80 AT LA CROSSE AND 76-78 AT ROCHESTER. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ017-029- 034-042>044-053>055-061. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ032-033-041. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WIZ017. MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ086-087- 094-095. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ079-088-096. IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR IAZ008>011- 018-019-029-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION.....RIECK HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP CLIMATE...WETENKAMP  FXUS63 KARX 170846 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 346 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND WAS DRIFTING EAST. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS NOTED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF THIS WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS. 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST TRANSPORT FOCUSING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. ALL OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL ALSO SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TONIGHT BUT THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 60S TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2013 THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA/IOWA LATE IN THE DAY. THE NAM/ECMWF ARE TRENDING DRIER FOR LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE LEADING TROUGH AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS. THE ENTIRE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION STAYS IN BROAD 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT THROUGH THE DAY BUT THE RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOISTURE TRANSPORT THEN INTENSIFIES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LOOKS TO BE FOCUSES RIGHT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 RANGE...WHICH IS 170 TO 190 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ALSO...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE TO AROUND 4.2KM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS GREATER THAN 4KM...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THE TROUGH PUSHES EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON THURSDAY AND STARTS TO LIFT TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES ON ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. AFTERNOON 0-3KM MUCAPE VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE. STRONGER SHEAR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THE UPPER JET STREAK LAGGING WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. 0-6 KM SHEAR ATTEMPTS TO INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS SHEAR IS LOCATED IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. MONDAY WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS A TROUGH SWINGS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1058 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 A SOUTHEAST FLOW OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...EMANATING OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE HEADING OFF FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL HELP MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS THE TAF SITES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE RETURNING BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL HELP CEILINGS LOWER AT BOTH TAF SITES... WHICH COULD DROP RST DOWN TO MVFR BY 03Z. LSE SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM COULD IMPACT RST DUE TO THE RETURNING MOISTURE. ADDED A VCSH AFTER 03Z FOR RST. ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN CLOUDS...WITH THE HIGH DEPARTING...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15KT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE COULD GUST AT TIMES AS WELL DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING BUT THINK THICKENING CLOUDS MAY TEMPER THE GUST POTENTIAL. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-034- 042>044. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION...AJ  FXUS63 KARX 032056 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 356 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LEADING SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN FEATURE TO KEY IN ON IS A POTENT UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS DRIVING A SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A VERY MOIST AIRMASS SURGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO UPPER 60S ACROSS ALL OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST...IMPACTING CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING THEN TAPERING OFF. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES INTO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...POSSIBLY IMPACTING MOST AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES...WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. IN ADDITION...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS HOVER AROUND 3.5 KM. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE WATCH ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVIER RAINS TODAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL TO POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL TONIGHT WITH THE SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH 0-3KM MUCAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO AROUND 1500 J/KG LATE TONIGHT. FOCUS QUICKLY TURNS TO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND LIFTS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. A WARM FRONT SHOULD BE SET UP FROM NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY MID AFTERNOON AND WILL RACE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALSO...CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING IN THE WARM SECTOR FURTHER EAST OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS...WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 45 KTS. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MUCH OF THIS SHEAR IS LOCATED IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. THE SUPERCELLS COULD FORM INTO BOWS AS THEY RACE EAST WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED TORNADO OR TWO. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THE BEST PARAMETERS FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THE 21Z TO 4Z TIMEFRAME...THEN SHIFTING NORTHEAST. ONE OF THE BIGGEST CONCERNS IS THE RAPID INCREASE IN 0-1KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 00Z TO 03Z TIMEFRAME WHEN VALUES GO FROM 20 TO 25KTS TO AROUND 40 KTS. AS THE STORMS WORK EAST THEY WILL BE ENCOUNTERING THIS STRONGER LOWER LEVEL SHEAR. THE STORMS SHOULD PUSH TO ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THE LATE EVENING TO LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE STORMS WILL THEN PUSH INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND MAY STILL BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY NIGHT AND COULD LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013 SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM COULD OCCUR OVER WESTERN AN CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN FINALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE DRY SLOTTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGHS WARM INTO THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2013 SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF LARGE WESTERN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. TIMING OF EACH CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TROUBLESOME BUT GENERALLY EXPECT A QUIET PERIOD AFTER CURRENT BAND OF STORMS CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHEAST. AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AGAIN THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE WHICH AGAIN COULD IMPACT AVIATION SITES. DEPENDING ON MOVEMENT OF THAT COULD SEE A PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR UNTIL DAYTIME FRIDAY WHEN VFR SHOULD AGAIN PREVAIL LEADING UP TO LATER DAY STORMS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION.....SHEA  FXUS63 KARX 051351 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 751 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 751 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013 MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH SOME EARLY MORNING SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA. NOTE THAT THIS AREA ALSO GENERALLY HAD THE THINNEST FOG DEPTH. HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN CANCELLING DENSE FOG ADVISORIES AS VISIBILITIES IMPROVE. NOW ALONG THE MS RIVER...ITS TRIBUTARIES AND NORTH OF I-90 IN WISCONSIN...THE FOG REMAINS QUITE THICK. IT IS POSSIBLE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED PAST 10 AM. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) 330 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...RAIN SPREADING IN TODAY... PRECIP TYPES LATER TONIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW. DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD MONDAYS COLD FRONT/TROUGH OVER LK MICHIGAN WITH A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH WESTERN WI TO MT. THE NEXT LOW TO IMPACT THE AREA WAS OVER NM. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING WESTERLY 850-700MB FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT/TROUGH HAD CLEARED OUT THE CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF MN/NORTHERN IA AND THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF WI. WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED TEMPS QUICKLY DROPPED INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AND FOG QUICKLY FORMED. VISIBILITIES OVER MUCH OF EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI AND NORTHEAST IA...WHERE SOME RAIN FELL ON MON WERE 1/2 MILE OR LESS. 05.00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND OFFER RATHER EXCELLENT AGREEMENT TODAY/TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH RAIN SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD A TIGHTER/COMMON CONSENSUS OF THEIR 03.00Z AND 04.00Z RUNS. THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS DOES FAVOR THE FASTER OF THE EARLIER RUNS AT 12Z WED...WHICH HAS IMPACTS ON PRECIP CHANCES THRU WED. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 06Z SHOWED ALL TO BE QUITE REASONABLE WITH THE SFC MASS FIELDS OVER CENTRAL NOAM. MODEL 925/850MB RH PROGS ACTUALLY DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THE DECREASE OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. PER WV IMAGERY...MODELS LOOK GOOD ON THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH MOVING THRU THE ROCKIES. WITH THE TREND TOWARD A TIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS...FAVORED THAT CONSENSUS. SHORT- TERM FCST CONFIDENCE AT LEAST WITH PRECIP TIMING/OCCURRENCE IS QUITE GOOD. AREAS OF DENS FOG TO PERSIST WELL INTO THIS MORNING WITH THE LIGHT SFC WINDS...NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND TIME OF YEAR WITH THE LOW SUN ANGLE AND SLOW DIURNAL WARMING. SHORT-TERM FORECASTER HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THRU 16Z FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. LATEST TIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS LEAVES THE NORTH HALF OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...BEFORE 925-700MB MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH SPREADS NORTH OVER THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE AND IMPRESSIVE SFC- 700MB F-N CONVERGENCE/LIFT DOESNT ARRIVE UNTIL ABOUT 18Z...AND TRENDED MOST -RA CHANCES DOWNWARD FOR THIS MORNING. MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT...IN A VERY TIGHT SFC-700MB THERMAL GRADIENT ORIENTED SOUTHWEST- NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA IN EARNEST THIS AFTERNOON... MAXIMIZING THIS EVENING. CONTINUED TO TREND RAIN CHANCES TOWARD 50 TO 100 PERCENT...HIGHEST SOUTH...BY LATE AFTERNOON THEN TO 100 PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA BY MID EVENING. GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE SFC-700MB FORCING/LIFT AND MDT 700-500MB LAPSE RATES CONSIDERED ADDING MENTION OF ISOLATED TSRA TO THE FCST FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. PER COORD WITH NEIGHBORS...LEFT TSRA MENTION OUT FOR NOW. WITH PW VALUES IN THE 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL RANGE... WIDESPREAD MDT TO HEAVY RAIN STILL EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. DEEPEST/STRONGEST OF THE FORCING/LIFT ALREADY STARTS TO EXIT BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH DECREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER ABOUT 09Z. 1 TO 1.5 INCH RAIN TOTALS THRU WED MORNING STILL LOOKING GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOW LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS IS WARM ENOUGH FOR PRECIP AS ALL RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA THRU 06Z. COLUMN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FCST MUCH OF TONIGHT. SOME COOLING OF THE LOWER COLUMN OCCURS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH ENDS OF THE FCST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT BY THAT TIME...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING DRYING ABOVE 700MB AND LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS LOOKING TO REMAIN ABOVE 32F WITH WARM GROUND AS WELL. WITH NO ICE IN THE TOPS OF THE CLOUDS...PRECIP WOULD REMAIN -RA/-DZ. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...OPTED FOR SOME CONTINUITY AND LEFT PRECIP OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH ENDS OF THE FCST AREA AS A -RA/- SN MIX WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR TODAY THEN WITH DEEP CLOUDS/WARM ADVECTION AND THE PRECIP... TRENDED TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) 330 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXITING RAIN CHANCES WED...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AND IMPROVING AGREEMENT WED THRU THU NIGHT AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WED...A SECONDARY NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE AREA THU...THEN SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN THU NIGHT. FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE GOOD THIS PERIOD. FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/SHORTWAVE EAST OF THE AREA MORE QUICKLY MOVES THE LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA ON WED. ENOUGH SO THAT THE FCST AREA TRENDS NEARLY PRECIP-FREE WEST OF THE MS RIVER BY NOON AND BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST END OF THE FCST AREA. ON WED...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY WARMER THAN -10C OR BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ARE ABOVE THE MID 30S...WITH PRECIP MAINLY AS -RA BUT FOR THE NORTHWEST END BEFORE 15Z. SUBSIDENCE/DRYING/DECREASING CLOUDS SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL ON WED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE REGION LATER WED NIGHT/THU MORNING WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A WEAK 925- 700MB TROUGH REFLECTION AND AN INCREASE OF MAINLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE. LEFT WED NIGHT/THU DRY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS INTO/ACROSS THE AREA FOR LATER THU/THU NIGHT. 925MB TEMPS IN THE +2C TO -2C RANGE COMBINED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TO MAKE FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WED/THU NIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RAINS FROM TODAY-WED...MORE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RADIATION FOG ALSO A CONCERN...MORE-SO LATE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING WITH THE SFC-925MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR THE PERIOD LOOKED GOOD. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/... 05.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OFFER DECENT BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO- RUN CONSISTENCY FOR SHORTWAVE RIDING TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI. THIS AHEAD OF ANOTHER RATHER STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS BY 00Z SAT. AS EXPECTED...PLENTY OF MODEL DETAIL/TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT. GFS ONE OF THE SLOWER MODELS WITH THIS FEATURE FRI/SAT. SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE SUN/MON BUT MODEST CONSENSUS FOR WEST TO EAST/ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS IN THE DAY 6-7 TIME-FRAME. GIVEN THE DETAIL DIFFERENCES...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE. GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY FOR FRI TO START OUT...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE GOOD LOW LEVEL CONSISTENCY DOES NOT LAST LONG GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS. GOOD SIGNAL FOR MOISTURE AND LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATER FRI AND FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT...JUST NOT A SIGNAL WITH CONSISTENT TIMING. SMALL CONSENSUS RAIN CHANCES OVER MAINLY THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA FRI AFTERNOON REASONABLE. PRECIP CHANCES IN THE 25-50 PERCENT RANGE FRI NIGHT LOOK OK...DECREASING SAT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS MOVING THE TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG MODELS FOR THE LOWER LEVELS TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY PRECIP FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT TO BE MAINLY RAIN. DRY/COOL HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR SUN/MON AS HGTS RISE/NEARLY ZONAL FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. GIVEN THE TIMING/DETAIL DIFFERENCES...MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU MON REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. EXCEPTION IS FRI NIGHT WHERE THE CONSENSUS LOWS STILL LOOK TOO COOL GIVEN LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 542 AM CST TUE NOV 5 2013 NUMEROUS AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FIRST IS THE FOG WHICH HAS REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO LIFR/VLIFR AT LSE. THIS FOG SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AT LEAST UNTIL 16Z...THEN BEGIN TO MIX OUT WITH THE PLAN THAT AT 17Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE. NOTE THAT THE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. AT RST...THE HIGHER ELEVATION SITE HAS HELPED KEEP VISIBILITIES AT MVFR/VFR...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN THE RULE THIS MORNING. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILTIES TO GO BACK DOWNHILL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS RAIN SPREADS INTO THE TAF SITES. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY BY 02Z AT BOTH SITES...WITH EVEN LOWER CEILINGS AT RST. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD OCCUR LATE TONIGHT AS NORTHWEST WINDS START TO BRING IN DRIER AIR. REGARDING THE WINDS...WITH RST ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH... SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL BE HIGHER THERE. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KT ARE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029- 032>034-041>044-053>055. MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-088- 095-096. IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ010-011- 030. && $$ UPDATE...AJ SHORT TERM...RRS/AJ LONG TERM....RRS AVIATION...AJ  FXUS63 KARX 141754 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1154 AM CST SAT DEC 14 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 230 AM CST SAT DEC 14 2013 TWO AREAS OF PCPN TO WATCH TODAY. FIRST...THE ONE ACROSS IOWA/ILL THAT IS BEING DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPINNING TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY. RADAR AND MESO MODEL TRENDS ON THIS PCPN REGION ARE TO KEEP IT JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SECOND...AREAS OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF MN/NORTHERN PLAINS TRACKING EAST SOUTHEAST...WITH SOME LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA HAVING A HAND IN ITS PRODUCTION. THIS WILL BE THE SNOW THAT FALLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...LIKELY LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE MAKES IT WAY ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. GENERALLY...IT LOOKS LIKE UP TO AN INCH OF FLUFFY ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT UP TO 2 INCHES NORTH/EAST OF I-94 WHERE THE SHORTWAVE INFLUENCE WILL BE FELT LONGER. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 230 AM CST SAT DEC 14 2013 A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TAKE AIM ON THE REGION AS THE BUSY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS/EC WITH SLIDING A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS MN/IA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN WI MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WOULD BE LIKELY WITH THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...BUT TIMING/POSITIONING IS PROBLEMATIC. WILL SIDE WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR NOW. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT ODDS AT HOW TO HANDLE AN END OF THE WORK WEEK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT THEY ARE STARTING TO SHOW MORE COMPATIBILITY WITH THEIR RECENT SOLUTIONS. TRENDS ARE FAVORING THE FASTER...MORE NORTH SOLUTION THAT THE EC HAD BEEN ALLUDING TO...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SPINNING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY TOWARD 00Z FRI. THE ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN WI BY THIS TIME. STRONG SLUG OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. GOOD PUSH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO INDICATED AS A 50 KT 850 MB JET POINTS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. AMPLE THERMODYNAMICS FOR PCPN PRODUCTION ON THU...WITH THE SHORTWAVE ENHANCING THE PCPN BY 00Z FRI. CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SHIFT THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST BY 12Z FRI. OF INTEREST WITH THIS PCPN MAKER IS THAT PCPN TYPE WILL BE A CONCERN. LATEST TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE BOTH A NEAR SFC WARM LAYER...AND SHALLOW SATURATION ON THE FRONT END OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BOTH WOULD RESULT IN LIQUID...AND DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS...SOME FREEZING PCPN COULD RESULT. SPEED/ TIMING/POSITIONING OF THE SYSTEM PUTS ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN QUESTION TOO...AS IT MIGHT BE TOO WARM AND DOESN/T LINGER LONG ENOUGH FOR COLD AIR TO WORK IN. GOING TO STICK WITH RAIN OR SNOW FOR PTYPES NOW. THE SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING MORE FOR THE PCPN TYPES RATHER THAN AMOUNTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THE SLATED TO BUILD IN FROM THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...STICKING AROUND ON SAT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST SAT DEC 14 2013 WEATHER SYSTEM WILL EXIT AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A COLDER AIR SURGE ARRIVES AND THIS MAY PRODUCE AN MVFR CLOUD DECK AT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVING CONDITION TREND THROUGH MORNING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS OVER MN FOR FURTHER CLARITY ON THE OVERNIGHT MVFR PROBABILITIES. NEXT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM WEATHER LOOK TO BE MONDAY. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION...BAUMGARDT  FXUS63 KARX 142001 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 200 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 200 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2013 BIG PICTURE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS MERGING NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROUGHS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WI/EASTERN IA AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH TODAY HAS BEEN GENERALLY AROUND 1/2 TO 1 INCH. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING A DIMINISHING TREND IN THE LIGHT SNOW FROM WEST OF EAST ACROSS THE AREA AS SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE REGION BEHIND THE PASSING TROUGH. OTHERWISE... ANOTHER CHILLY DAY OUT THERE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO THE MIDDLE 20S. FOR TONIGHT...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MAY STILL BE SEEN MAINLY NORTHEAST OF I-94 THIS EVENING IN COLDER CYCLONIC FLOW. NOT EXTREMELY CONFIDENT IN THE CLOUD TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME. FEEL THERE WILL ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR BREAKS OR GOING PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES. THIS MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS AS 925MB DROP INTO THE -15 TO -20C RANGE. RIGHT NOW...THINKING OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE -5 TO +5F RANGE WITH WIND CHILLS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE MINUS 10 TO MINUS 20 DEGREE RANGE. FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING A WEAK MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROP FROM THE DAKOTAS TO JUST WEST AND SOUTH OF US. ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE ECMWF HOLD LIGHT SNOW FROM THIS WAVE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE 12Z ECMWF PUSHES -SN TO JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL USE A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH YIELDS A 20-30 PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ROCHESTER MN THROUGH OELWIEN IA. THIS SNOWFALL LOOKS VERY LIGHT GIVEN WEAK DYNAMICS. IF THERE IS ANY SNOWFALL OUT OF THIS...IT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE A 1/4 TO PERHAPS UP TO 1/2 INCH OF ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOWER TEENS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT BACK DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 200 PM CST SAT DEC 14 2013 A BIT MORE POTENT MID-LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY. APPEARS BEST PV-ADVECTION/WARM AIR ADVECTION WING AND ISENTROPIC LIGHT LOOK TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. THIS FORCING LOOKS DECENT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10. LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL PRODUCE A SMALLER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES NORTHEAST OF I-94. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL BE IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME. 12Z ECMWF/GFS ARE AT ODDS AT HOW TO HANDLE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH MORE OPEN WITH THE SURFACE LOW/FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER WITH BETTER DYNAMICS TIED TO AN INCOMING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOWFALL CENTERED IN ON THURSDAY EVENING/FRIDAY MORNING. WENT WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW AND WILL HOPE FOR BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LATER MODEL RUNS. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD IN ON SATURDAY FOR QUIET BUT COLDER CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST SAT DEC 14 2013 WEATHER SYSTEM WILL EXIT AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A COLDER AIR SURGE ARRIVES AND THIS MAY PRODUCE AN MVFR CLOUD DECK AT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVING CONDITION TREND THROUGH MORNING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS OVER MN FOR FURTHER CLARITY ON THE OVERNIGHT MVFR PROBABILITIES. NEXT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM WEATHER LOOK TO BE MONDAY. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM....DAS AVIATION.....BAUMGARDT  FXUS63 KARX 092316 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 515 PM CST THU JAN 9 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 324 PM CST THU JAN 9 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUES FOCUSED ON THE STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN...AND SLEET. WATER VAPOR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL TROUGHS AFFECTING OR THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA. TROUGHS OVER MN/NORTHERN IL WERE SPREADING CLOUDS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD ON THE MN TROUGH AND ON THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS HELPING TO BRING MODERATING TEMPERATURE OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO. A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL WAVE WAS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHICH WILL PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX/SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING THE WAVE COMING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH/WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH TEMPERATURE DROP OFF. LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE HIGHS FROM TODAY...OR IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. ON FRIDAY...AS THE TROUGH CLOSES IN ON THE REGION AND AIDING IN LIFT ...LOOKING FOR A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THEN SHOW THE COLUMN SATURATING UP TO AROUND 5KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DEEP ENOUGH FOR A DRIZZLE/RAIN MIX FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH LACK OF ICE IN THE CLOUD FOR MAKING SNOW. ALTHOUGH FORECASTING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 32-35 DEGREE RANGE...FEEL THAT THE RECENT VERY COLD SNAP WILL KEEP ROAD TEMPERATURES SOMEWHERE IN THE MID-UPPER 20S. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AREAS WEST OF THIS LOOK TO HAVE ENOUGH ICE IN THE COLUMN FOR MORE SNOW. WILL LIKELY SEE ICE ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM A TRACE TO 0.05 INCH THROUGH MAINLY THE AFTERNOON//AGAIN MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER//...WITH A FEW TENTHS OF SNOWFALL WEST OF A WINONA MN TO CHARLES CITY LINE. LOOK FOR THE WINTRY MIX TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WI WHERE WARMER AIR ALOFT LINGERS A BIT LONGER. ALSO OF NOTE IS ALMOST ALL OF THE MODELS POINTING TOWARD A CLOSED/CLOSING MID-LEVEL LOW MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER BAND OF 700-500MB FRONTOGENESIS/HEAVIER SNOWFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF THIS HAPPENING LOOKS TO BE IN AN AXIS FROM LA CROSSE AND BLACK RIVER FALLS ...INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WI. 2-5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS OUR AREA IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AXIS. BASED ON THE WINTRY MIX AND LIKELIHOOD FOR 2-5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...HAVE HOISTED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A PART OF NORTHEAST EAST IA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WI...IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OR 12Z SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 324 PM CST THU JAN 9 2014 EXPECTING THE MID-LEVEL/SURFACE LOW TO PULL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOOK FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...BUT INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE THE AREA A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE. CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX WILL ENTER THE PICTURE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. EXPECTING HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE 30S IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND THEN DROPPING INTO THE TEENS/LOWER 20S SUNDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 515 PM CST THU JAN 9 2014 CLOUDS HAVE THICKENED AND LOWERED EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH IFR/MVFR PREDOMINANT /500-1500FT/. EXPECTING MORE LOWERING ON FRI AS THE LOW SATURATION INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW. COULD BE SOME FZDZ EARLY FRI AFTERNOON WHEN CLOUD DEPTH AND SUFFICIENT LIFT COME TOGETHER. GRADUALLY...CLOUD DEPTH WILL DEEPEN ENOUGH FOR ICE IN THE CLOUD...AND SNOW. THIS LOOKS TO BE NEAR 00Z AT KRST/KLSE. EXPECTING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...MOST OF WHICH WILL FALL FRI NIGHT. THINK THE THREAT FOR FZRA/PL IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME...BETTER CHANCES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL STAY SOUTHERLY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY...BECOMING WEST/NORTHWEST AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN WI FRI EVENING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ017-029-034-041>044-053>055-061. MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ096. IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR IAZ010-011-029-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM....DAS AVIATION.....RIECK  FXUS63 KARX 240913 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 315 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST WI EARLY THIS MORNING...PER LATEST WATERVAPOR IMAGERY. SOME LIGHT SNOW WAS RESULTING...MOSTLY CONFINED TO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES/MINOR ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY FROM THE I-94 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...A BIT STRONGER...DROPS IN TONIGHT...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW. OVERALL...1 TO 2 INCHES LOOKS LIKELY FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH MOST ACCUMULATIONS COMING THIS EVENING. BLUSTERY WINDS COULD LEAD TO PATCHY BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014 SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO BRING A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER...SOME DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY...SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS STORM...WATCHES...WARNINGS AND/OR ADVISORIES. PART 1 NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SAT NIGHT/SUN...WITH A PIECE OF ENERGY LEADING IT IN. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 280-295 K SFCS BETWEEN 06-15Z SUN...WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE 925-700 MB LAYER BULLSEYEING THE AREA AT 12Z. HEFTY THERMODYNAMICS...BUT QUICK MOVING. THE STORM/S SFC WARM FRONT MOVES IN FIRST...ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUN...WITH A SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE INDICATED VIA SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST RUNNING X-SECTIONS. THE SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SFC LOW DEPARTS EAST INTO MICH. SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED WITH THIS...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD COME WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS/QG CONVERGENCE FROM 850-500 MB/AND THE LEADING PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. THE SNOW WILL MOVE IN BY LATE SAT EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH THE MAIN SNOW BAND SHIFTING EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. WHILE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN PCPN TYPE...SOUNDINGS AND X- SECTIONS SUGGEST THAT A WINTRY MIX WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS POTENTIALITY COMPARED TO THE GFS...WITH MORE WARMING AND A SHALLOWER CLOUD DEPTH ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS SUGGESTS A LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUD AND POSSIBLY SOME MELTING...THUS BRINGING LIQUID/SLEET INTO THE PICTURE. THAT SAID...THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL LOOKS TO BE COLD ENOUGH/ICE IN CLOUD THAT IT WOULD BE SNOW. STILL...ANOTHER ELEMENT TO WHAT IS GOING TO BE SOME VERY UNPLEASANT DAYS. AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES LOOK REASONABLE...WITH THE QUICK NATURE OF THIS STORM HOLDING AMOUNTS DOWN. SOME ICING COULD ALSO RESULT...SHOULD FREEZING PCPN/SLEET BE REALIZED. PART 2 WINDS ARE GOING TO INCREASE SUN AFTERNOON...STAYING STRONG INTO THE NIGHT. THE NAM IS VERY STRONG WITH ITS WINDS...MIXING DOWN AS MUCH AS 47 KTS AT KRST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS ABOUT 10 KTS LESS. EITHER SOLUTION WILL RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW THAT FALLS EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE WIND PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA...ALONG WITH RIDGE-TOPS...COULD SEE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES...VSBYS 1/2 MILE OR LESS WITH LOTS OF BLOWING ACROSS ROADWAYS. PART 3 BRUTAL...POTENTIALLY DEADLY COLD MOVES IN FOR MON/TUE POST THIS SUNDAY STORM. ECMWF 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES FALL TO -2.5 BY 12 MON...WITH -28C AT 850 MB DEPICTED IN THE GFS. HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE AROUND IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS THE REGION HOLDS UNDER THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WHILE A SFC HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE PLAINS. CLOUDS OBVIOUSLY ADD AN INSULATION FACTOR...WHILE CLEAR SKIES WOULD GIVE AN ADDITIONAL DROP IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS. AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW...LOWS IN THE -20S ARE PROBABLE TUE...WITH MINUS TEENS MON/WED. HIGHS AREN/T LIKELY TO CRACK ZERO UNTIL WED. IN FACT...THE WHOLE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING WILL BE SUB ZERO. ADD IN WINDS...AND WIND CHILLS -40 OR COLDER ARE LIKELY LATE SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AND AGAIN LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING. THIS COLD GOES FROM DANGEROUS TO DEADLY IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. WIND CHILL WARNINGS/ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED. SOMEWHAT QUIET FOR SNOW CHANCES FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NEW WORK. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH OR WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH WED. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE WITH HOW TO HANDLE A SHORTWAVE THAT BOTH SUGGEST WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THU. THE GFS FAVORS KEEPING ITS INFLUENCE TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE EC RIDES ITS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES. DON/T HAVE A PREFERRED SOLUTION...SO WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS THIS GO AROUND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST THU JAN 23 2014 WINDS ARE STARTING TO PICK UP AS THE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS ENTERING THE DAKOTAS. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH BLOWING SNOW/LOWER VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA...SO AM NOT AS CONFIDENT IN HAVING SOME BLOWING SNOW OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FIRST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW. ALSO...THE LATEST TRENDS SEEM TO FAVOR A WEAKENING TREND WITH THE SNOW THIS MORNING BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE. IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING AFTER THIS FIRST WAVE OF SNOW COMES THROUGH. THE MAIN SNOW BAND WILL COME IN THIS EVENING BUT AGAIN WILL ONLY LAST FOR A FEW HOURS. IFR CONDITIONS LOOK MORE LIKELY WITH THIS BAND AND BEHIND IT WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL BECOME VERY GUSTY AFTER THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING WITH 30 TO 35KT GUSTS EXPECTED. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-032>034- 041>044-053>055-061. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION.....HALBACH  FXUS63 KARX 060852 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 352 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING AIDED BY A 45 TO 50 KNOT 700 MB JET...AND A 40 KNOT 850 MB JET. THE 06.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. MEANWHILE A WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI...WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND IT WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE MINNESOTA/IOWA BORDER BY 07.00Z. FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY 07.12Z. AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD...THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE INTO THE 40 TO 45 KNOT RANGE BETWEEN 07.03Z AND 07.09Z. THE ECMWF SHOWS THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA BY 07.06Z...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE IS BROAD LIFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM THAT RESULTS IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF IT. THE ARW WAS SIMILAR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 BETWEEN 07.06Z AND 07.09Z...BUT STAYED AWAY FROM DEVELOPING A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. CONSIDERING THE BROAD LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT... PREFER THE ARW SOLUTION...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOWARD IT. AS TYPICAL...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NOCTURNAL JET SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AFTER 07.09Z...SO WENT WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BETWEEN 07.09Z AND 07.12Z. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 1 TO 1.3 INCH RANGE BY 07.06Z...AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CLIMB INTO THE 3 /ECMWF/ TO 3.5 KM /GFS/ RANGE. THIS ALONG WITH 1-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE HAIL MAINLY SUB SEVERE. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014 ON WEDNESDAY...THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL DRAMATICALLY DECREASE IN THE MORNING AS THE BROAD LIFT NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WEAKENS. THIS SHOWS UP WELL IN BOTH THE ARW AND NMM AND FITS IN WELL WITH THE BROADER SCALE IN THE NAM AND GEM. BY AFTERNOON THE GEM...NAM...ARW...NMM...AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION LOCATED IN THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION BELOW THE CAP. OVERALL THE LATTER MODELS SOLUTIONS MAKE MUCH MORE SENSE CONSIDERING THERE IS NO FORCING OR MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA...SO TRENDED THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOWARD THEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN GET DURING THE DAY. WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO BE MOVE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S. MEANWHILE NORTH OF THIS FRONT...THE HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AS THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WITH THE THOUGHT THAT THE FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...WE MAY EVENTUALLY BE ABLE TO GO DRY FOR THESE AREAS. LIKE TONIGHT. EVEN NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT...CONVECTION MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER BETWEEN 825 AND 700 MB. IF CONVECTION...DOES HAPPEN TO DEVELOP THE 1-6 KM SHEAR IS 30 KNOTS OR LESS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. ON THURSDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. EMBEDDED WAVES IN THIS JET WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER 15Z. SINCE THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE MODELS...RAISED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT MORE. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE CAPES TO LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. UNLIKE YESTERDAY...THE 0-3 KM SHEAR LOOKS MUCH WEAKER....SO EVEN LESS IMPRESSED WITH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN OUR AREA. MEANWHILE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE SURFACE BASED CAPED WILL CLIMB INTO THE 2 TO 3K J/KG RANGE AND THE 0-6 KM SHEAR IS GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS. DUE TO THIS...THINK THAT THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FOUND THERE. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE SPEED OF THE SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE NAM MOVES THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE NAM. MEANWHILE THE NON U.S. MODELS SHOW THAT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING FOR THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. CONSIDERING THAT THE FLOW ALOFT IS STILL SOUTHWEST ALOFT... OPTED TO TREND TOWARD THE SLOWER NON U.S. MODELS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2014 WARM FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GRADIENT NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL TIGHTEN UP TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP WITH THESE SUSTAINED WINDS FOR GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. THE WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN SOME TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP TO CUT OFF THE MIXING AND GUSTS BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 10 KNOTS. THE 06.00Z NAM REMAINS CONSISTENT SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND INTERSECT THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. THIS WILL HELP PRODUCE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE OF 2 TO 6 UBAR/S OVER THE FRONT ON THE 300K SURFACE BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP QUICKLY LATE TUESDAY EVENING SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH TO SHOW THIS TREND. FOR NOW...DID NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER AT EITHER TAF SITE WITH THE NAM SHOWING ALL THE ML CAPE REMAINING SOUTH ACROSS IOWA AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDING INITIALLY SHOWING A VERY SKINNY MU CAPE PROFILE ABOVE THE SURFACE INVERSION. HOWEVER...FULLY EXPECT THAT THUNDER WILL HAVE TO BE ADDED FOR THE 07.06Z TO 07.12Z TIME FRAME AS THE MU CAPE GETS UP TO ABOUT 1500 J/KG. && .HYDROLOGY...THIS WEEK ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2014 FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE MAIN STEM OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH LOCATIONS CRESTING THIS WEEK. CHECK OUT THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS FOR THE DETAILS. THE NEXT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD COULD HELP KEEP THE RIVER LEVEL ELEVATED...SLOWING THE RATE OF FALL AFTER CREST. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM...BOYNE AVIATION...04 HYDROLOGY...BOYNE  FXUS63 KARX 102010 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON/NIGHT. POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINS SUN NIGHT. 18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM NORTHEAST MN THRU SOUTHEAST WI. SUNNY...QUIET DAY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION. WV IMAGERY SHOWED A MORE ROBUST LOOKING SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SD/NEB EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE AND SOME 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING RESPONSIBLE FOR A BROAD BAND OF SCT SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA LIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN IA/SOUTHWEST MN. PER 10.12Z KMPX SOUNDING...PLENTY OF DRY AIR ABOVE 850MB AHEAD OF THIS BAND OF SHRA/TSRA TO OVERCOME BEFORE PRECIP REACHES THE GROUND...AND MOST RAIN AMOUNTS SO FAR TODAY HAVE BEEN A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. 10.12Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL...BUT FOR GFS ABOUT 5F HIGH ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY. SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO OFFER A TIGHTER CONSENSUS ON THE SHORTWAVE TO LIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT AND THE NEXT STRONG TROUGHING/ ENERGY TO CROSS THE ROCKIES SUN/SUN NIGHT. SLOWER/STRONGER ECMWF/ CAN-GEM OFFERING THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE ROCKIES TROUGHING LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH GFS/NAM SLOWING TO MATCH UP. NAM APPEARS AS BIT OF AN OUTLIER AT 12Z MON WITH A FURTHER NORTH/EAST SFC LOW/TRAILING COLD FRONT AND ITS SOLUTION GENERALLY DISCOUNTED. GIVEN THE NOW RATHER TIGHT NON- NAM CONSENSUS THRU 12Z MON...SHORT- TERM FCST CONFIDENCE FOR A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD IS GOOD THIS CYCLE. FIRST SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WEAKENS AS LOOSES THE BATTLE WITH THE RISING HGTS/RIDGING AHEAD OF THE STRONGER TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES. 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ WARM ADVECTION AND SOME 295-305K ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL SPREADS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FCST AREA MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... WITH STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THRU THE EVENING...IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE...THEN TAPER/END THEM AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVEL FORCING WEAKENS/MOVES EAST OF THE FCST AREA. MOST RAIN AMOUNTS TONIGHT TO BE QUITE LIGHT. BREAK FROM THE RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT/SUN MORNING AS SOME 850- 700MB DRYING TEMPORARILY SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LEE LOW ALREADY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING...WITH THE 700MB MOISTURE ARRIVING DURING THE LATER MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND 925-50MB MOISTURE ARRIVING DURING THE AFTERNOON. PW VALUES OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUN AFTERNOON/NIGHT. QUESTION NO LONGER SEEMS IF ITS GOING TO RAIN LATE SUN AFTERNOON/NIGHT BUT HOW MUCH. BROAD/DEEP LAYERED FORCING/LIFT AHEAD OF THE SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS ACROSS WITH THE MOISTURE INCREASE SUN AFTERNOON/NIGHT. AT 00Z MON...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING STABILITY/CIN OF 50-150IN THE SFC-700MB LAYER WITH MUCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG OVER MAINLY THE SOUTH 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. LFC AROUND 700MB IN THE SOUNDINGS WITH THE CIN IN A RATHER DEEP 900-700MB LAYER. CAPE PROFILE IS DEEP...BUT SKINNY. WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF AROUND 3500 METERS...THE SKINNY CAPE OF 500- 1500 J/KG DOES NOT SEEM LIKE ENOUGH FOR A BIG HAIL THREAT. WITH THE AREA LOOKING TO BE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SUN EVENING AND THE CIN BELOW 700MB...APPEARS MAIN TORNADO AND STRONG WIND THREAT WOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. ALSO...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO BE SPREADING INTO/ACROSS THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON/ EVENING...ALL COMPETING FOR THE SAME CAPE/SHEAR...WILL REDUCE THE SEVERE THREAT FROM ANY ONE TSRA. CONCERNS AS WELL ON SUN WITH HIGH TEMPS BEING TOO WARM AND CAPE ON THE HIGH SIDE GIVEN THICKENING CLOUDS/SHRA/TSRA SPREADING NORTH INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 3500 METER WARM CLOUD DEPTH...A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH FOR LIFTING...PW VALUES NEAR 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL AND A FEED OF THIS MOISTURE ON A 40-50KT 850MB JET SUN NIGHT ALL POINT TSRA BEING EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS AND A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. CONSIDERED A FLOOD WATCH FOR SUN NIGHT/MON...BUT IT WOULD HAVE AND TO BE RATHER BROAD WITH QPF DETAIL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. WILL ISSUE AND ESF FOR NOW AND PASS ALONG CONCERNS TO THE MIDNIGHT CREW. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS MON THRU TUE NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES/RAIN AMOUNTS MON INTO MON NIGHT...COOLING TEMPERATURES. MODEL RUNS OF 10.12Z OFFERING A TIGHTER CONSENSUS MON/MON NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE SFC LOW LIFTS TO LK SUPERIOR. TREND IS TOWARD COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE REGION WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BY THE ECMWF. IMPROVING CONSENSUS TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH VIRTUALLY STALLS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE MON-TUE NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE. BROAD/DEEP FORCING/LIFT CONTINUES OVER THE AREA MON...ALONG WITH A FEED OF THE 1.5 INCH PW VALUES ON A 30-40KT 850MB JET. STRONGEST OF THIS IS OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE MORNING...GRADUALLY TRANSLATING EAST MON AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SFC THRU 850MB COLD FRONT/TROUGH MOVE EAST INTO/ACROSS THE AREA. PLENTY OF FORCING/LIFT REMAINS OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE FCST AREA MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE 700- 500MB TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF THE AREA AND SHORTWAVES LIFT UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH THRU WESTERN MN. HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA THRU MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA MON AFTERNOON. AFTER A POSSIBLE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN SUN NIGHT...ANOTHER 1/4 TO 3/4 INCH OF RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY. SHRA/TSRA THEN TAPER OFF AND EXIT EAST THRU MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS THE SFC-850MB TROUGH/FRONT MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. CONCERNS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT DEPICTED IN DAY 3 SIMILAR TO THOSE CENTERED ON SUN EVENING. SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST MON MORNING...AND CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY. DEBRIS CLOUDS AND THE RAIN SHOULD LIMIT HIGH TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR CAPE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS FOR MON BUT IF CLOUDS/SHRA/TSRA PREVAIL...THESE ARE LIKELY TOO WARM RESULTING IN TOO MUCH CAPE IN THE PROGS. MON CAPE PROFILES ALSO DEEP AND SKINNY SIMILAR TO SUN EVENING. NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ALL COMPETING FOR THE SAME CAPE/SHEAR WILL AGAIN LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH ANY ONE STORM. DRIER/COOLER 925-700MB AIR WRAPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUE AFTERNOON/ NIGHT FOR WHAT SHOULD BE DRY PERIODS AND A DECREASE OF CLOUDS. 850MB TEMPS IN THE +2C TO -1C RANGE BY 12Z WED. THIS PLUS LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUE NIGHT...LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S WED MORNING APPEAR REASONABLE. FOR WEDNESDAY THRU SATURDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...COOL TEMPERATURES AND -SHRA CHANCES THRU THE PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 10.00Z/10.12Z HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WED/THU ON LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THE TROUGHING TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NOAM. MODELS CONVERGING TOWARD THE EARLIER ECMWF RUNS. IMPROVING CONSENSUS FOR SOME NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO DROP INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THU/FRI...FURTHER DEEPENING THE TROUGH AND CARVING OUT A MID LEVEL OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR FRI INTO SAT. GIVEN THE IMPROVED MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS...DAY 4-7 FCST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY GOOD THIS CYCLE...ESPECIALLY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONE SURGE OF COLDER LOW LEVEL HAS ALREADY SETTLED OVER THE REGION BY WED. A SECONDARY...EVEN COLDER SURGE IS POISED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR THU/FRI. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE -1C TO -3C RANGE AT 12Z FRI. SOME TEMP RECOVERY SAT AS WARMER AIR ACTUALLY WRAPS IN FROM THE NORTH. SIGNAL REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR 850MB TEMPS TO BE SOME 1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR MOST OF THE WE-SAT PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD FOR DAY 4-7 HIGHS TO BE SOME 10-15F BELOW NORMAL. LOWS THRU THE PERIOD A LITTLE TRICKER AND DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER ANY ONE NIGHT. WITH MODEST 925-700MB MOISTURE AND THE DEEP COLD CORE TROUGH/LOW AND CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION...CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE WED-SAT PERIOD. IF ANY ONE OF THE NIGHTS ENDS UP MORE CLEAR THAN CLOUDY...PATCHY FROST WOULD BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94 THU/FRI NIGHTS. FOR NOW THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR WED- SAT ARE WELL TRENDED. LESS CONFIDENCE ON -SHRA CHANCES IN THE WED-SAT PERIOD AS THESE CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES THRU THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. PRESENT TIMING HAS ONE STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE REGION WED THEN MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE DEEP TROUGH/MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRI/SAT. WITH THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW...COLD CORE OF 850-700MB TEMPS OVER THE REGION...STEEP SFC- 700MB LAPSE...RATES/WEAK INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ANY SHORTWAVE WOULD BE CAPABLE OF TRIGGERING SCT -SHRA. SMALL -SHRA CHANCES MUCH OF THE WED-SAT PERIOD STILL LOOK REASONABLE UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE TIMING DETAILS CAN BE SORTED OUT. ANY PRECIP DURING THE WED-SAT WOULD BE SCT AND LIGHT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014 SMALL AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE 10.14Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THESE SHOWERS AND BRINGS THEM EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING THEM. WILL SHOW A VCSH FOR THESE SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD THEN BE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES IN AND BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME ACTIVITY. EXPECTING THIS NEXT ROUND OF ACTIVITY TO APPROACH THE TAF SITES AROUND 00Z AND THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER WITH IT AS THE 10.12Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW 200-400 J/KG OF ELEVATED SKINNY CAPE. WILL HAVE A VCTS FOR THIS NEXT ROUND BASED ON THIS AVAILABLE CAPE...BUT NOT SURE HOW LONG TO HOLD ONTO THE CHANCES AS THE HRRR WOULD PUSH IT THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHILE THE NAM WOULD HOLD ONTO SOME CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL LIMIT THE CHANCES TO THE EVENING HOURS AS BOTH THE 10.12Z GFS AND 10.00Z ECMWF WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE IN THE EVENING. THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD...THE BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE MID LEVELS SO EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN VFR. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2014 MINOR FLOODING/HIGH WATER CONTINUES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATER SUN AFTERNOON INTO MON EVENING WILL BE A WET PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THAT PERIOD. THE HEAVIEST RAIN/HIGHEST TOTALS WILL FALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD HAVE ADDITIONAL IMPACTS ON BOTH TRIBUTARIES AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...SLOWING THE RATES OF FALL...PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RISES OR RENEWED FLOODING. WILL ISSUE AN ESF CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINS SUN NIGHT/MON AND RISING RIVER LEVELS/FLOODING THREAT. CHECK THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC STATEMENTS FOR THE DETAILS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RRS LONG TERM....RRS AVIATION.....04 HYDROLOGY....RRS  FXUS63 KARX 232018 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 318 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014 THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND THERE ARE NO WEATHER CONCERNS. 18-20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING THE LARGER SCALE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. AND THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AXIS FROM THE MIDDLE DAKOTAS INTO ERN KS. THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND STILL UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WI. THE AIR MASS OF INTEREST IS FOUND SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT RUNNING FROM NRN KS INTO NERN ARKANSAS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NOW OVER 65F. 12Z ROABS CONFIRM LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS OF 12-15C THROUGH 850MB AND TOPEKA HAD A 1.4 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER...ABOUT 165 PERCENT NORMAL. THIS AIR MASS WILL SHIFT INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER SUNDAY PER CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE AS THE PATTERN PROGRESSES SLIGHTLY AND SOUTHERLY FLOW FOLLOWS IN THE LOW-LEVELS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014 SATURDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT... THE WEATHER BEGINS TO GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING LATER ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE WARM FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST PROVIDING THE REGION WITH A MOIST AIR MASS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IN THE LATEST 23.12Z GFS/NAM WITH THE GFS BEING SHALLOWER WITH ITS MOISTURE AND MORE CAPPED AND WARM ALOFT /800MB CAP/. WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN AR/MO...HAVE DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE NAM GUIDANCE MORE WITH LITTLE CAPPING AND 800MB TO SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTION DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THE WEST LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER..THERE IS VERY LITTLE LIFT IN THAT MOISTURE TONGUE COMING IN...WITH ONLY WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONVERGENCE ON THE 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY MORE CONVERGENT. CAPES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG EARLY SUNDAY EVENING WEST OF THE MISS RIVER BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WIND SHEAR WOULD NOT SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO NEARLY 1.5 INCHES AND THE WARM CLOUD DEPTH AROUND 4 KM...BRIEF HEAVY RAINS ARE GOING TO BE COMMON WITH THIS AIR MASS. BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE SMALL STORM CHANCES LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WERE CONTINUED...MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. THE WELL-ADVERTISED TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW APPROACHES FROM MN MONDAY MORNING AND BEGINS TO ORGANIZE THE MOIST POOL ALONG IT FROM SIOUX FALLS SD TO DULUTH. MONDAY CAPE BUILDS UNDER AN UNCAPPED AIR MASS WITH WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WORKING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE REAL DYNAMICS OF THE CYCLONE ARE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO...SO CONVERGENCE ON THE FRONT IS WEAK BUT PRESENT...AND REALLY THE ONLY LIFT...ACROSS THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA. WITH THE 23.12Z GFS/NAM BOTH VERY CONSISTENT ON THE UNCAPPED AIR MASS HAVING ABOUT 1500-2000 J/KG MONDAY AFTERNOON...WOULD THINK SHRA/TSRA WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. WITH WIND SHEAR SO POOR...VERY ISOLATED PULSE STORMS COULD PRODUCE A HAIL OR WIND REPORT...BUT HEAVY RAIN RATES ARE PROBABLY MOST ON MY MIND. THE ONLY FOCUS TO HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ITS SLOW MOVEMENT. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... THE BIG PICTURE FOR THIS PERIOD IS INCREASING AGREEMENT ON A DRIER PERIOD WITH THE LATEST TWO RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SUGGESTING RIDGE AMPLIFICATION AND LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. THIS PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND PROVIDES A LESS HUMID AIR MASS AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FRONTAL POSITION TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS AIR MASS SHOULD BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND HAVE A DIURNAL PEAK TO INSTABILITY TUESDAY /1500 J/KG MLCAPE/...BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH. THE CANADIAN HEMISPHERIC SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO RUN ALONE IN THEIR IDEA OF RAIN OVER WI WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE SURFACE RIDGE DOES BUILD INTO THE AREA SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF/GFS RUNS. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE CANADIAN QPF SOLUTION. THUS...TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A SCOURING DAY FROM THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS PUSHED SOUTHWESTWARD WITH STORMS POSSIBLE/LIKELY ALONG IT. BUT IT MAY BE DRIER THAN CURRENT FORECAST DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THAT FRONT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014 HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE INTO SATURDAY...SHUNTING LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE WELL SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF AREA. OUTSIDE OF A LITTLE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON PERIPHERY OF SYSTEMS TO THE SOUTHWEST...CLEAR VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014 WILL HAVE TO KEEP ATTENTION ON MONDAY WITH VERY MOIST AND ANOMALOUS AIR MASS OVER THE AREA AND A SLOW MOVING FRONT MOVING IN. RAIN RATES COULD BE IN THE 1-3 INCH PER HOUR RANGE AND STORMS SOMEWHAT SLOW MOVING. IF A FOCUSING AGENT COULD DEVELOP...SOME POCKETS OF HIGHER RAINFALL COULD OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT LONG TERM...BAUMGARDT AVIATION...SHEA HYDROLOGY...BAUMGARDT  FXUS63 KARX 260846 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 346 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014 A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THANKS TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED FROM NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WAS SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. WATER VAPOR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED ALONG THE NEW MEXICO/COLORADO BORDER. MOISTURE WAS STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AHEAD OF THIS LOW. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF THE MOIST AIRMASS...DAYTIME HEATING...AND THESE WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE THE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MESOSCALE FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS UNDER PEAK HEATING. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE TARGETED THIS AFTERNOON FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING RIGHT AROUND 1.5 INCHES...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 3300 METERS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON RAINFALL RATES TODAY ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS WHERE THESE HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD CAUSE SOME PONDING OF WATER. WITHOUT A STRONG FOCUS IT/S DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN AN AREA THAT WOULD SEE REPEATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS SO CHOSE NOT TO ISSUE ANY HYDROLOGY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY A FEW DEGREES WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON CLOUD COVER TODAY. TEMPERATURES WOULD QUICKLY WARM WITH ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TODAY. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014 THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND INTERACT WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ANOTHER DAY OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED. AGAIN...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. UPPER RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND LOOKS TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DRY AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME SO WILL LEAN TOWARD A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND APPROACH FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2014 CONFIDENCE HAS LOWERED FOR THE TAF SITES TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING...EITHER FROM CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY...WITH ALL SITES UPSTREAM ACROSS IOWA NOW VFR. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE TAF SITES...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR BR AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL EARLY THIS MORNING. DEVELOPING THE MVFR CEILING MAY BE MORE TRICKY GIVEN UPSTREAM VFR CONDITIONS...THEREFORE...HAVE TRENDED CEILINGS VFR. STILL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME SHOWER AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A VCSH. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND VARIOUS WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH. BASED ON LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TONIGHT...KEPT THE VCTS MENTION LIMITED TO BEFORE 03Z. THERE COULD BE LIGHTNING AROUND AFTER 03Z BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY FROM LOSS OF HEATING SHOULD HELP MAKE IT MUCH MORE ISOLATED. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO FALL TO MVFR OR IFR DURING THE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE STORMS IMPACTING THE TAF SITES DIRECTLY PRECLUDES THE MENTION IN THE TAF FOR NOW. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2014 THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH APPROACHING 3500 METERS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. REPEATED ROUNDS OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY UNCERTAIN. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION...AJ HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP  FXUS63 KARX 270909 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 409 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014 LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST IOWA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. THE SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING NEAR THE BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL PERSIST AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 3500 METERS...AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HYDROLOGY HEADLINES. PLAN ON HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER AND POSSIBLE FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS. THE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING ALONG IT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. DECIDED TO INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH THE BOUNDARY NOT MOVING INTO THESE AREAS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGING FROM THE MID 70S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2014 A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST BRINGING A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WITH CLEARING SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE HIGH BUILDING IN...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. PLAN ON LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN. AN ACTIVE PATTERN THEN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHERN NEBRASKA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL RETURN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING AT THE SURFACE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS PATTERN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE WARM TEMPERATURES ARE HERE TO STAY WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014 ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST NEAR THE TAF SITES...RESULTING FROM LINGERING INSTABILITY AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE AREA IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. HAVE MAINTAINED A VCSH WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTION UNTIL 09Z IN CASE THESE IMPACT THE SITES. SO FAR THE SITES HAVE AVOIDED RAINFALL...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANT TO WHETHER OR NOT BR WILL FORM THIS MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED A VFR BR MENTION... BUT SHOULD RAIN IMPACT A TAF SITE...VISIBILITIES IN THAT 09-14Z WINDOW COULD DROP TO MVFR OR EVEN BRIEFLY TOUCH IFR. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW AS WELL AS A COLD FRONT DROPPING OUT OF NORTHERN WI SHOULD HELP INITIATE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE 20-02Z TIME PERIOD WOULD BE MOST LIKELY FOR THE TAF SITES TO EXPERIENCE THE THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER REFINEMENT TO INCLUDE TSRA AND SUB VFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IS LIKELY IN LATER FORECASTS WITH A GOOD SIGNAL SOMETIME IN THAT 20-02Z PERIOD FOR STORMS. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER BEYOND 02Z BUT ANTICIPATING THE REST OF THE EVENING TO SEE VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF BR AFTER 06Z. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION...AJ  FXUS63 KARX 290909 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 409 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014 PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING OVER CENTRAL INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY PROVIDING DRY AND QUIET WEATHER. WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH MIXING THIS AFTERNOON...DECIDED TO LOWER DEW POINTS A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL YIELD MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE GREEN UP OVER THE REGION THERE SHOULDN/T BE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. PLAN ON MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014 FOCUS QUICKLY TURNS TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAINLY IN THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TIMEFRAME. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION LATE ON SATURDAY WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL STREAM NORTH IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTH INCREASING TO 3.5 TO 4.0 KM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS UNDER THESE CONDITIONS SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING THEN QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WEAK SHEAR OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KTS...AND SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1200 J/KG OFF OF GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM STORMS ON SUNDAY WOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL. DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME ON HOW THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE GFS BRINGS STRONG INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND SWINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF SURFACE DEWPOINTS/TEMPERATURES ARE CORRECT ON THE GFS IT WOULD YIELD 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3500 TO 4500 J/KG MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS PRODUCING SURFACE DEWPOINTS OF 75 DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SEEMS WAY OVERDONE. DEWPOINTS OF 67 TO 69 DEGREES SEEM MUCH MORE REASONABLE. THE ECMWF HAS A LOT OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND KEEPS CONVECTION FIRING INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF THEN WRAPS UP A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS WAY OVERDONE. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GEM/GFS SOLUTIONS FOR THE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TIMEFRAME WITH THE IDEA OF A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE CONVECTION MONDAY MORNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT IT/S DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN THE SPECIFIC THREATS AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WORKING OVERHEAD...LIGHT SFC WINDS...AND RECENT RAINS BRING THE THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG AT KLSE. SEVERAL THINGS GOING AGAINST IT THOUGH. CLIMATOLOGICALLY ITS NOT THE FAVORED TIME - NOT ENOUGH HOURS OF NIGHT/COOLING. T/TD SPREAD TOO LARGE AT 00/03Z. LOW LEVEL LIGHT WIND FIELD SHALLOW. SO...WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...DON/T BELIEVE FG WILL IMPACT KLSE. A SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR THU MORNING. OTHERWISE...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL GENERALLY STAY LIGHT FROM AN EAST/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION.....RIECK  FXUS63 KARX 300823 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 323 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. BY LATE SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE GULF COAST INTO EASTERN CANADA ALLOWING A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. BOTH THE 30.00Z NAM AND GFS INDICATE THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE WAVE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE VERY STRONG AS NEITHER MODEL SHOWS ANY APPRECIABLE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. THE MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA INTO CANADA...BUT AS THE WAVE APPROACHES...THE REGION SHOULD GET UNDER THE EASTERN AND CONVERGENT SIDE OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS. SOME CAPE STARTS TO RETURN AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH THE NAM SHOWING 200-400 J/KG OF ML CAPE. WHILE THE OMEGA PROFILE OFF THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING FOR KRST IS VERY WEAK...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO POP SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION AND WILL SHOW 20 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE FOCUS FOR THE RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT BECOMES THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF INTO THE CANADA...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LAY UP FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND WEST BUT THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE EASTERN AND CONVERGENT SIDE OF THIS TRANSPORT AXIS. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY THE NAM AND 30.00Z ECMWF THAT A VERY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA WHICH WOULD HELP TO FOCUS THE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY NEAR THIS LOW AND FRONT. PLAN TO HAVE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD START TO COME IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN...THE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF PV ADVECTION OCCURRING WITH THIS WAVE. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A BETTER ISENTROPIC RESPONSE WITH UP TO 4 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 305K SURFACE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THIS SURFACE LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK WITH THE NOSE OF THE AXIS INTO THE AREA. THE ML CAPE WILL BE BETTER RANGING FROM 500 TO 1500 J/KG FROM EAST TO EAST. SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM WITH ONLY 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THE STORMS THAT FORM WILL LIKELY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE CAPE PROFILE LOOKS TO BE RATHER TALL AND SOMEWHAT SKINNY...PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3-3.5 KM. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION AND BY AFTERNOON PLAN TO HAVE 50 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014 THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SUGGESTIONS BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS THAT WILL BE STRENGTHENING AS IS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS INCREASE IN STRENGTH SHOULD ALLOW THE PV ADVECTION TO RANGE FROM WEAK TO MODERATE IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE WAVE THAN EITHER THE NAM OR ECMWF...BUT ALL THREE MODELS DO SHOW THE NOSE OF THIS TRANSPORT TO BE INTO THE AREA. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE SHOULD ALSO INCREASE WITH THE GFS SHOWING UP TO 10 UBAR/S ON THE 305K SURFACE SLIDING ACROSS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. PLAN TO HAVE 60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND 70 PERCENT MONDAY. THE GFS SUGGESTS THE BEST CAPE WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH AS IT TRIES TO BRING IN SOME LOWER 70S DEW POINTS...BUT AGAIN...THE SHEAR LOOKS TO BE PRETTY WEAK...POSSIBLY UP TO 30 KNOTS IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN START TO DECREASE MONDAY WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3 TO 4 KM...SUGGESTING THAT HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT. THE RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLEARS THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD IN TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY PERIOD IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG AS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FRONT STALLS OUT AND THEN STARTS TO COME BACK NORTH STARTING WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING THIS LOW INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS TAKES IT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. EITHER WAY...WILL CARRY SOME MORE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2014 LIKE THIS MORNING...DESPITE THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT SFC WIND...VALLEY FOG SHOULD NOT BE A THREAT AT KLSE. T/TD SPREAD TOO LARGE TO OVERCOME...CLIMATOLOGICALLY NOT FAVORED...AND LIGHT WIND LAYER DOES NOT EXTEND MORE THAN A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SFC. SO...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME SUGGESTIONS IN THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...THAT THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI LATER ON FRIDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME DIURNAL CU. WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION.....RIECK  FXUS63 KARX 310801 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 301 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014 THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DOWN THE WEST COAST WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIDING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THIS PATTERN...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL PASS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A SLOW MOVER WITH THE BULK OF ITS FORCING REMAINING NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION TO BE TIED TO THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NONE OF THE 31.00Z MODELS SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS WEAK BOUNDARY BUT WITH SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WEAK ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE SHOULD OCCUR. THE NAM SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 UBAR/S ON THE 305K SURFACE STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT NEVER REALLY BECOMES FOCUSED ON THE AREA AS IT FEEDS INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE 31.00Z HI-RES ARW ONLY SHOWS SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. GIVEN THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT TODAY...THIS SCENARIO SEEMS VERY PLAUSIBLE AND WILL CARRY 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OR FORCING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHOW ITS NORMAL NOCTURNAL INCREASE WHICH WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT. DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS ON HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTING IT GETS CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE INCREASED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD PROVIDE DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND HI-RES ARW DO NOT ADVANCE THE FRONT NEARLY AS FAR SOUTH AND KEEP THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE AREA. FOR NOW...HAVE MAINTAINED SOME 60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT CONCERNED WITH THE WEAK FLOW PATTERN...THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT ADVANCE MUCH AND THAT THE NAM AND ARW MAY END BEING MORE CORRECT. IF THIS IS THE CASE...THEN THE RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO HIGH AND MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE SAME CONCERNS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH VERY WEAK FORCING CONTINUING. THE FRONTAL POSITION CONTINUES TO BE A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH. THE ECMWF AND ARW HOLDS THE FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHILE THE NAM REMAINS EVEN FARTHER NORTH. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES SUNDAY MORNING WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A DECREASE IN THE ACTIVITY AND THEN AN AFTERNOON INCREASE AS THE CAPE INCREASES. SOME SUGGESTIONS BY A COUPLE OF THE MODELS THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY MOVE ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY. IF THIS HAPPENS...IT WILL ENHANCE THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO HELP PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. RIGHT NOW...THE ARW DOES NOT SHOW THIS AND KEEPS THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA SCATTERED THROUGH THE DAY. AGAIN...HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE EVENT THE FRONT DOES GET CLOSE TO THE AREA OR THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS...BUT AGAIN CONCERNED THAT THESE MAY NEED TO TRIMMED BACK TO REFLECT THE ACTIVITY BEING MORE SCATTERED. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE ABLE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AXIS ENOUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD OCCUR AS THE LOW COMES IN AND THE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SLOWLY INCREASES TO BECOME WEAK TO MODERATE IN STRENGTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT...THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT SUNDAY NIGHT COULD END UP BEING INTO THE AREA. STILL NOT A LOT OF ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE EXPECTED WITH THIS REMAINING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 UBAR/S ON THE 305K SURFACE. EXPECTING THAT THE HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASE IN PV ADVECTION WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN AROUND 70 PERCENT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY. THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH MONDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY MINIMAL THROUGH MONDAY. THE BEST CAPE SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 1000-1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE ACROSS THE WEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING VERY WEAK SHEAR WITH ONLY 25 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER AT BEST. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES TROUGH MONDAY WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 KM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014 THIS SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PROGRESS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE AND BY TUESDAY...BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NOT FAR SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG IT OVER KANSAS. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK ALONG THE FRONT LIFTING BACK NORTH TOWARD THE AREA AND RETURNING THE RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO START BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2014 FETCH OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION IS HELPING TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN MN INTO IA....WITH SHOWERS/STORMS PERSISTING OVER WESTERN MN. DRIER AIR ACROSS WI AND EASTERN MN WAS SERVING TO KEEP ANY PCPN...AND MOST OF THE CLOUDS...AT BAY. THE MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON SATURDAY...AND EXPECT A BKN VFR CIG TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON AT KRST/KLSE. MUCH LIKE TODAY...INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP FIRE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE MOISTURE FEED...WHICH COULD IMPACT KRST. WILL HOLD WITH VCSH FOR NOW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR PCPN OVERNIGHT SAT...AS THE 850 MB LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT STARTS TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION...AND A SFC FRONT/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENCROACH ON THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. PERIODS OF SHRA/TS ARE LIKELY FOR SUN- MON...WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY OF THE STORMS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION.....RIECK  FXUS63 KARX 010748 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 248 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING ONGOING CONVECTION FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH ANOTHER AREA NORTH/SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE MORNING RAIN CHANCES WITH NONE OF THE SHORT TERM MESO MODELS HAVING MUCH OF A HANDLE ON THE ACTIVITY. THE HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE PRODUCTION PROBLEMS WITH THE 31.20Z THE LAST FULL RUN AVAILABLE IN AWIPS AND ON THE WEB. THE 01.00Z HI-RES ARW SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CONVECTION OUT WEST OKAY BUT HAS NO CLUE ON THE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SINCE THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST...EXPECT THAT IT WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z BUT PLAN TO HOLD ON TO AT LEAST SOME LOW END CHANCES FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST IN THE EVENT THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS UNTIL THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOWS ITS DIURNAL DECREASE AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER...THE ACTIVITY TO THE WEST IS CLOSE TO THE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. IT IS ALSO BEING AIDED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS ENTERING WESTERN MINNESOTA. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE AFTERNOON IS GOING TO PLAY OUT. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH HELPING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION INTO SOUTHERN CANADA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS COULD TEMPORARILY LEAVE THE AREA WITHOUT MUCH DYNAMICAL FORCING FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE COMPENSATED BY THE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WITH AFTERNOON ML CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA AND THE SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT BACK INTO THE AREA. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 1 TO 2 UBAR/S OF UP GLIDE ON THE 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN THIS AXIS OF CAPE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WILL HAVE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH THE 01.00Z NAM SHOWING IT PRODUCING SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER. ALL THE 01.00Z MODELS SUGGEST A SURFACE LOW WILL FROM ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT BUT CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ON ITS LOCATION. THE NAM AND 01.00Z ECMWF KEEP THE LOW OVER WESTERN OR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHILE THE 01.00Z GFS HAS THE LOW NEAR THE TWIN CITIES. GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA...FEEL THE GFS IS LIKELY TOO AGGRESSIVE PUSHING THE FRONT INTO THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THE NAM AND ECMWF PROBABLY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SURFACE LOW. THIS WOULD PUT THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVERNIGHT FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE LOW. THIS SHOULD THEN PLACE THE BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE TRENDED THE RAIN CHANCES FROM 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE EAST UP TO 70 PERCENT IN THE WEST. FOR MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST AS WELL. NO MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL SHOWING DIFFERENT POSITIONS. THESE MODELS DO SHOW THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN IOWA DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH OUT THE DAY WHILE A DIMINISHING TREND WILL START IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE GENERAL FORCING WILL OCCUR UNTIL THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH THE WEAK ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE CONTINUING. STILL COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW. SEVERE PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. ML CAPES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD PRIMARILY BE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH THE SHEAR IN THE 0-6KM LAYER REMAINING IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3 TO 4 KM AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT WITH GOOD CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE ECMWF...GFS AND 01.00Z GEM SHOWING THIS LOW BETWEEN OMAHA AND KANSAS CITY. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN TO FORM NORTH OF THE FRONT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE OVER CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN IOWA WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE ACTIVITY GETTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FOR GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2014 LINE OR SHRA/TS ACROSS WESTERN WI MAKING A NORTHEAST TREK...FIRING ON THE EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AND IN A WEAK FRONTOGENETIC REGION. SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ACCOMPANYING THE LINE...BUT IT HAS EXITED PAST KLSE. FARTHER WEST...SHRA/TS CONTINUE TO SPARK ACROSS SOUTHERN MN...HEADING NORTHEAST. RADAR AND MESO MODEL TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING THIS ACTIVITY WEST OF KRST FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...WORKING IN AFTER 12Z SAT. KLSE WOULD LIKELY STAY DRY...WITH ONLY AN ISOLD SHRA/TS THREAT. MORE SHRA/TS COULD DEVELOP BY MID MORNING SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGION. RAP13/NAM12 CONTINUE TO POINT TO THIS. A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW COULD HELP THIS PCPN THREAT. HARD TO PINPOINT AN AREA/TIMING FOR THE HIGHER SHRA/TS CHANCES...AND WILL USE BROADER BRUSH STROKES FOR PCPN CHANCES UNTIL TIMING CAN BE NARROWED DOWN. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE A WET AND STORMY PERIOD...WITH THE FRONT FINALLY WORKING INTO THE AREA. A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION.....RIECK  FXUS63 KARX 020726 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 225 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 AFTERMATH OF ACTIVE WEATHER DAY YESTERDAY AND FUTURE IMPACT FROM SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. TO START THE WEEK WILL BE MAIN FOCUS THIS FORECAST AS RAIN THREAT DETAILS REMAIN IN THE FOREFRONT. WITH MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS FAR NORTHERN STATES...COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE...WARM CLOUD DEPTH...DAYTIME HEATING AND BROAD ASCENT LED TO LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT WITH EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS STILL MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF WISCONSIN. WHILE SOME AREA RIVERS ARE ON THE RISE...FLOODING HAS BEEN LOCAL AND SPOTTY GIVEN DISORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN. AS MAIN WAVE MOVES FURTHER EAST TODAY AND SOME DRYING WORKS IN FROM THE WEST...RAIN THREAT TODAY CERTAINLY LOOKS FURTHER EAST AND HENCE THREAT FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE WANING. WILL DROP FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS MORNING. IT MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO PUSH RISK OF AT LEAST SHOWERS FAR ENOUGH EAST BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SMALL RAIN THREATS IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AND COULD REGENERATE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH AND SET UP JUST TO OUR SOUTH. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF WEST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FAIRLY QUICKLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UNLIKE THIS PAST WEEKEND WHEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS NEXT TO NONEXISTANT...THIS WAVE WILL HAVE MUCH BETTER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WITH BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL STILL BE SITUATED...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. CONSISTENT LOOK IN 02.00Z MODEL GUIDANCE OF SURFACE LOW TRACKS STAYING SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA SO MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE RAIN FROM CONVECTION THAT IS LIFTED NORTH IN ELEVATED FASHION AS MORE DISCRETE STORM THREAT RESIDES JUST SOUTH. OF COURSE ANY SHIFT NORTH COULD INCREASE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH MAIN TIME FRAME CENTERED ON TUESDAY NIGHT. ACTIVE PSUEDO ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES FROM MID WEEK ON BUT OVERALL IMPACT TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES REMAINS UNCLEAR. AFTER BRIEF BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER READINGS...ANOTHER IMPULSE COULD BRING COLD FRONT INTO MINNESOTA THURSDAY. WITH MAIN FORCING REMAINING IN SOUTHERN CANADA...IMPACT COULD BE NIL FOR US WITH FRONT WASHING OUT OR LIFTING NORTH...AND SHORT LIVED UPPER RIDGE ACTUALLY BUILDING IN. EITHER WAY...LAST PART OF WORK WEEK LOOKS PRETTY QUIET. A BIT STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW COULD PUSH OR REINFORCE WHATEVER FRONT IS SITTING OFF TO THE NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AND THIS WILL INTRODUCE HIGHER RAIN THREATS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. IT ALSO PROMISES COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN THREAT AND COOLER AIRMASS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2014 AREA OF SHRA/TS MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY. NOT MUCH ACTIVITY INDICATE VIA RADAR POST THIS AREA...AND THE NAM12/HRRR/RAP13 SUGGEST THAT AFTER THIS MOVES THOUGH /09Z/...THAT COULD BE IT FOR KRST/KLSE FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON THOUGH...INCREASING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND ANOTHER PERTURBATION IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...COULD SPARK ISOLD -SHRAS. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT KRST/KLSE WOULD BE IMPACTED TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. SOMETHING TO WATCH THOUGH. A SFC LOW/COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL SWEEP IN MONDAY MORNING...AND SHOULD BRING SOME MVFR CIGS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SUBSIDENCE POST THE SYSTEM SHOULD SCATTER OUT THE CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL MIXING LEADING TO STRONGER/GUSTY WEST WINDS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 ONE TO LOCALLY FOUR INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL SUNDAY INTO EARLY THIS MORNING CAUSING NUMEROUS RIVER LEVEL RISES. OTHER LOCAL FLOODING HAS BEEN INFREQUENT AND WITH HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOWERING QUITE A BIT TODAY...HAVE DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. JUST AS MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVELS WERE STARTING TO GET BACK DOWN... THEY WILL BE CLIMBING AGAIN THIS WEEK. A BIT UNCLEAR HOW HIGH THEY WILL GET BUT GIVEN SLOW RISE...FLOOD WATCHES CONTINUE FOR WABASHA AND WINONA MN WHERE FLOOD WARNINGS COULD BE NEEDED. RIVERS IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ALSO SEEING QUICK RISES BUT CREST HAS ALREADY BEEN SEEN IN UPPER REACHES OF KICKAPOO AND UNCLEAR IF LEVELS WILL REACH BANKFUL DOWN FROM THERE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SHEA LONG TERM...SHEA AVIATION...RIECK HYDROLOGY...SHEA  FXUS63 KARX 021945 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 CURRENTLY AS OF 19Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED UPPER LOWS OVER NORTHERN MN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...WITH RIDGING IN-BETWEEN OVER THE ROCKIES. THE FORECAST AREA LIES IN TROUGHING AND A SUBSTANTIAL DRY SLOT SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN MN UPPER LOW. THIS DRY SLOT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME MIXING HELPED TO CLEAR SKIES OUT FROM THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S / LOW 80S HAS RESULTED IN 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND NO CIN. THIS INSTABILITY AND LACK OF CAPPING HAS MANIFESTED ITSELF IN PLENTY OF CUMULUS CLOUDS...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. TO THE NORTHWEST...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS EXIST OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MN. 925MB TEMPS ARE SIGNIFICANT COLDER TOO UNDER THESE CLOUDS...NOTED BY 10C TEMP AT BIS AT 12Z COMPARED TO 16-20C OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COLDER AIR AND CLOUDS ARE BEHIND A COLD FRONT NEAR ALEXANDRIA MN. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY ON ITS WEST SIDE LOOKS TO BECOME CENTERED OVER WI. FIRST...ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME STRONGER CELLS TIL ABOUT 5-6 PM WITH 0-6KM SHEAR RUNNING AROUND 30 KT AND 0-3KM SHEAR AT 20-25KT. THEN AS THAT TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT THE COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE STRATUS AND SHOWERS. COLD FRONTAL TIMING APPEARS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 03-09Z. REGARDING THOSE SHOWERS...MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOUD DEPTHS WOULD SUPPORT THEM MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD PICK UP A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS...AS 925MB WINDS INCREASE TO 30-35KT. DAYTIME HEATING PLUS SUBSIDENCE AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WILL HELP CLEAR MOST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING. UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES THEN LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE WITH THIS RIDGING WILL HELP KEEP THE AREA DRY. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE WARMER AIR ADVECT BACK IN WITH 925MB TEMPS PROGGED TO MAKE A DECENT JUMP DURING THE DAY...FROM 10-12C AT 12Z TO AROUND 18C AT 00Z. PLENTY OF SUN FROM THE MID MORNING ON UNTIL SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT PROGGED TO COME CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING NUMEROUS SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA SHEARING OUT AND PROVIDING DPVA FORCING TO THIS REGION. PLENTIFUL THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTION TOO. MODELS CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE THE SAME AMOUNT OF SPREAD HANDLING THIS CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE 02.12Z NAM AND 02.09Z SREF STILL SHOW A NORTHERN TRACK...BASICALLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06-18Z WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 02.12Z CANADIAN/GFS/ECMWF AND ESPECIALLY THE 02.12Z HIRES-ARW SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK. SINCE THE CONVECTION IS HIGHLY LIKELY TO CONGEAL INTO A BOWING MCS...AIDED BY A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORTING HIGH CAPE OUT OF KANSAS...CORFIDI VECTORS AND IN PARTICULAR THE FORWARD PROPAGATING VECTORS NEED TO BE FOLLOWED. THESE WOULD SUGGEST THE MCS SHOULD TAKE THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE... LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MO AND INTO CENTRAL IL. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST SEVERE PROBS ARE IN THE DAY 2 SEVERE OUTLOOK. EVEN IF THIS SOUTHERN ROUTE OCCURS...IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN END OF THE MCS AND/OR SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL CLIP SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THUS...RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE SOUTH OF I-90 FOR 06-18Z WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAIL OFF PRETTY QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MCS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM HEAD DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH. MUCH OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AS THAT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FOCUSED OVER THE REGION. THERE ARE TWO CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD...THOUGH. 1. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MINIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PROGGED...DOWN TO 0.5-0.7 INCHES OR 70-90 PERCENT OF NORMAL. ALONG WITH THIS DRY AIR...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE AT THE SURFACE TO AID IN LIGHT WINDS. MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S IN SOME OF OUR TYPICAL WISCONSIN COLD SPOTS. AS SUCH...HAVE TRENDED FORECAST LOWS COLDER...BUT MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. 2. POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 02.12Z NAM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING A WAVE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER. HOWEVER...THE 02.12Z ECMWF DOES SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING...PRODUCING MOSTLY SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY...BUT THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES FOR AN UPPER TROUGH TO DROP INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL...CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PERHAPS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOME...PRIMARILY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN INCREASING MODEL AGREEMENT. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND...ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE. SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT HIT 70 ON SUNDAY AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AT OR BELOW 8C WITH PRECIPITATION LINGERING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 CURRENTLY WATCHING A SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MN. RADAR MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TS ACTIVITY IN DESTABILIZATION UNDER THE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWING ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL WI THIS AFTN...KEEPING MAIN SHRA/TS THREAT ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF I-94. OTHERWISE...BROKEN VFR CUMULUS FIELD WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING KRST/KLSE TAF SITES. PLAN ON WEST WINDS SUBSIDING AND DIMINISHING CUMULUS THIS EVENING WITH SUNSET/LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. MODELS THEN HINT AT VFR/MVFR STRATOCUMULUS SWINGING ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WI...STAYING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE KRST/KLSE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEN THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE REGION. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 2 2014 RUNOFF FROM RECENT RAIN CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TRIBUTARIES. THE KICKAPOO RIVER REMAINS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TRIBUTARY FLOODING WITH VIOLA HEADING TOWARDS FLOOD STAGE AND READSTOWN ALREADY IN MINOR FLOOD BUT CRESTING. SOLDIERS GROVE AND GAYS MILLS DOWNSTREAM COULD GET CLOSE TO OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND THEREFORE NEED TO BE WATCHED. SOME OF THE RUNOFF HAS HIT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH LEVELS NOW STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING NORTH OF LA CROSSE. LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...IT APPEARS WABASHA MAY GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...THUS A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THERE. MEANWHILE...AT WINONA...CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK NEARLY AS FAVORABLE TO HIT FLOOD...THEREFORE THE WATCH WAS CANCELLED THERE EARLIER THIS MORNING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MNZ079. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...DAS HYDROLOGY...AJ  FXUS63 KARX 140726 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 230 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...FUELED BY A 50+ KT 850 JET WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. MEANWHILE...WING OF LIGHT RAIN RUNNING NORTHWEST- SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA...BEING DRIVEN BY SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. RAIN HAVING TO WORK THROUGH A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER...WITH A LOT OF IT NOT EVEN REACHING THE GROUND. NORMALLY...WOULD EXPECT SOME WEAKENING IN THE MCS AS IT MOVES INTO THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES. THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY AS THE JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT STAYS STRONG...AND SHIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF A SFC FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SBCAPES CLIMB TO 2000+ J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WEAKENING TO ABOUT 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS ILL AND SOUTHEAST WI. THERE WILL BE A RISK OR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT CURRENT TIMING FAVORS KEEPING IT WEST TODAY AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA SUNDAY. DECENT INSTABILITY WITH 40-50 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THE BETTER SHEAR DOES SHIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...BUT WILL LIMITED INSTABILITY BY THAT TIME...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014 ACTIVE NEW WORK WEEK ON TAP FOR THE REGION AS SEVERAL ELEMENTS COME TOGETHER TO GIVE DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO PARTS OF THE AREA. 1) SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SPINS VARIOUS BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION. RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE STATES INTO THU...WITH A TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE REGION ON FRI. 2) WEAK WEST-EAST SURFACE FRONT LAYS UP ACROSS THE REGION TUE...AND WILL WAVER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. 3) PERSISTENT...STRONG LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES OVER AND OVER AGAIN ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. 4) INSTABILITY...WHILE PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MODELS HOLD ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE MOST NIGHTS. PUT THEM ALL IN A BLENDER ON PUREE AND YOU WIND UP WITH A PITCHER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE. HARD TO FERRET OUT ANY DAY IN PARTICULAR WHEN THEN SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE GREATER. RAINFALL COULD BECOME A CONCERN NEXT WEEK WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE HEAVY. THE GFS PROGS 3500-4000 M OF WARM CLOUD DEPTH...WITH PWS OF 1 1/2 TO 1 3/4 INCHES. COUPLE THIS WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED AND PERIODS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY. GFS/EC TOTAL QPF THROUGH FRIDAY RANGED FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EASILY POSSIBLE. QUESTION HERE IS WHETHER THE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS DAY TO DAY...OR WHETHER THIS WILL SHIFT. COULD SEE THE NEED FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCHES IF IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT THAT CERTAIN LOCATIONS COULD BE GROUND ZERO FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2014 SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR AS THEY MOVE THROUGH WITH RST MORE LIKELY TO SEE THEM THAN LSE. WINDS WILL PICK UP QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS REACHING THE 25 TO 35KT RANGE AT TIMES. RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SOME POTENTIAL DROPS TO MVFR/IFR WITH THESE SHOWERS/STORMS. THE TIMING OF CONVECTION GETTING IN IS A LITTLE IN QUESTION AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL GET IN LATE IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BUT FALL APART AS IT GETS INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MAIN TIMING WHICH APPEARS TO BE IN THE EVENING HOURS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....BOYNE AVIATION.....HALBACH  FXUS63 KARX 142001 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 301 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014 THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. A WEAK WARM FRONT ARCS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE KANSAS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN IOWA NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. MAIN AREA OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE AREA SO FAR TODAY BUT HAS BEEN SLOWLY ADVANCING INTO THE FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT HAS BEEN SLOWED BY THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS THAT KEEP FEEDING THIS DRY AIR INTO THE LEADING EDGE. THE 14.12Z HI-RES ARW AND 14.16Z HRRR ARE BOTH IN AGREEMENT IN HOLDING THIS ACTIVITY TOGETHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT LIFTING IT NORTHEAST IN THE BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH THIS TREND IN MIND...WILL SO A SLOW BUT GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AND BY LATE EVENING WILL HAVE 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3RD OF THE AREA WHILE REMAINING DRY ACROSS THE EAST. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING AND COLORADO WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES WHILE TAKING ON MORE OF NEGATIVE TILT. BOTH THE 14.12Z NAM AND GFS SHOW THE BEST PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER STAYING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BUT SHOULD STILL HAVE A PERIOD OF WEAK PV ADVECTION COME ACROSS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BECOME VERY STRONG THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE LOW CREATING STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO WESTERN IOWA WHERE AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT THEN SHIFTS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE NOSE OF THIS TRANSLATING ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS AROUND 09Z OR SO AND BY 12Z THIS AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE RIGHT OVER THE AREA. EXPECTING TO SEE THE SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TRANSLATE NORTHEAST WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. BY THE TIME THE STORMS ARRIVE IN THE AREA...THEY SHOULD BE ELEVATED AND WILL STILL HAVE UP TO 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE ABOVE 1KM TO WORK WITH. DESPITE THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...THE SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK THAT GREAT IN THE ELEVATED LAYER WITH ONLY AROUND 20 KNOTS SHOWN. THE BETTER SHEAR LAGS BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE INCOMING JET CORE. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE A SEVERE STORM OR TWO...BUT WITH THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS...NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT TO OCCUR TO TONIGHT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING OVER THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND THE NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ALL THE 14.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW LIFTING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY 18Z SUNDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT ABOUT TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE FRONT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...SOME POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE OVER THE EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ML CAPES SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AROUND 40 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. THE OTHER THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. PRECIPITABLE WATERS SHOULD INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.8 INCHES WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 3.5 KM. THIS SHOULD MAKE THE CONVECTION EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE. BELIEVE THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH AND NOT TRAINING THAT FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE ISSUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS TEMPORARILY BUILD OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THE RELOADING WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH. WHILE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL STILL BE BACK OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GET EJECTED OUT OF THIS AND COME ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...THE BEST PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTHWEST BUT AT THE LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT THAT GOES THROUGH SUNDAY WILL START TO COME BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS SHOULD WORK BACK INTO CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND THEN TO ABOUT THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER MONDAY NIGHT. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG AND GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF THE FRONT. BETTER CAPE MAY IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. 0-6 KM SHEAR LOOKS PRETTY DECENT AS WELL WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS. HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME A THREAT AS WELL. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 4 KM AND COULD TRAIN WEST TO EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AND THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY HINGE ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014 THE COMPLEX THAT FORMS MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE VERY FAR TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH. AS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COME OUT OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE 14.12Z ECMWF THEN SUGGESTS THE WHOLE SYSTEM WILL START TO LIFT OUT WHILE THE GFS CLOSES OFF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST KEEPING SOME RAIN OVER THE REGION. THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION AND A FLASH FLOODING THREAT. WILL MAINTAIN 40 TO 60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES AS LONG AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014 GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES AHEAD OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. WIND SPEEDS OF 16 TO 22 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FOCUS INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING NUMEROUS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN LATER TONIGHT AS THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES. LOOK FOR VISIBILITIES TO FALL TO 2SM IN THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 1500 FT. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION AROUND MID MORNING ON SUNDAY WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR LATE SUNDAY MORNING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...WETENKAMP  FXUS63 KARX 150739 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 240 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY INTO MONDAY) ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014 LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MN AND NORTHERN WI. A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...INSTABILITY AXIS...STRONG SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND A WARM FRONT WERE ALL PLAYING ROLES IN THE PCPN PRODUCTION. ALL MESO MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A DIMINISHING TREND IN AREAL EXTENT/INTENSITY AS IT DOES. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION...REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR THE NOON HOUR. INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE STORM DEVELOPMENT...FAVORING CENTRAL WI EASTWARD. FAVORABLE 0-3/0-6KM SHEAR WILL AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND COUPLED WITH THE INSTABILITY...SUGGEST A STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR THE BOUNDARY COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES. TRENDS IN THE MESO MODELS POINT TO THE SEVERE THREAT HANGING JUST EAST/SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVOLUTION ALONG THE FRONT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ENHANCE THANKS TO CONVECTION...BECOMING MORE OF AN MCV AS IT SPINS TOWARD THE REGION MONDAY EVENING. 40+ KT 850 MB JET FUELS THIS CONVECTION WITH A STRONG MOISTURE FLUX...NOSING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA BY 00-06Z TUE. MUCAPES CLIMB ABOVE 2000 J/KG BY 00Z...WITH 40+ KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR. BOTH FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS. HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. MODELS UNCERTAIN WHERE THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE. THE 15.00Z NAM SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE TWO FAVORED AREAS...WITH ONE AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL MN AND ANOTHER WITH A GREATER SEVERE THREAT HUGGING SOUTHERN IA. THE 15.00Z GFS TAKES A BEAD ON THE FORECAST AREA...TRACKING THE STORM COMPLEX ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BRINGING THIS FEATURE IN...BUT SUGGESTS SOMETHING SIMILAR IN PLACEMENT TO THE GFS. THE GEM MEANWHILE SEEMS TO HINT AT A SOLUTION IN THE NAM VEIN. WILL TAKE A BLEND APPROACH TO THE PCPN CHANCES FOR THE MOMENT. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014 ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STILL ON TRACK FOR MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK...WITH FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. INTERPLAY BETWEEN SEVERAL WEATHER ELEMENTS WILL RESULT IN DAILY RAIN CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. NOT ALL WILL GET WET EVERYDAY...NOR WILL A DAY LIKELY BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT. THE MAIN PLAYERS... 1) BITS OF ENERGY WILL SPIN THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW A LOFT. RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE STATES INTO THU...WITH A TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE REGION ON FRI - EXITING EAST ON SATURDAY. 2) WEAK WEST-EAST SURFACE FRONT LAYS UP ACROSS THE REGION TUE...AND WILL WAVER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. 3) STRONG LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NEARLY EVERY NIGHT. 4) INSTABILITY PEAKS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG SOME DAYS. INSTABILITY WEAKENS AT NIGHT...BUT MODELS HOLD TO AT LEAST 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE MANY NIGHTS. 0-6 KM SHEAR MOSTLY IN THE 30-40 KTS MOST DAYS...FAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS RECIPE BAKES UP REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REGION. SOME WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ON WHERE/WHEN ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN NEXT WEEK AS THE THREAT FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN LOOKS HIGH. THE GFS PROGS A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 3500-4000 M WITH PWS FROM 1 1/2 TO 1 3/4. PAIR THIS WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND STRETCHES WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY. TOTAL QPF THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE GFS SUGGESTS 3-5 INCHES...WITH ABOUT 3 INCHES VIA THE ECMWF. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EASILY POSSIBLE. THE MAIN QUESTION HERE IS IF THE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS DAY AFTER DAY...OR WILL THEY SHIFT. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES COULD BECOME NECESSARY IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT CERTAIN LOCATIONS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014 THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN DOWN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. RST WILL HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF SEEING THE STORMS GET INTO THEM WITH LSE MORE BORDERLINE. WITH CONFIDENCE HIGHER THAT THEY WILL GET INTO RST...WILL KEEP THE TEMPO GROUP GOING FOR IFR VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE MORNING BUT THEN SKIES SHOULD CLEAR UP AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION.....HALBACH  FXUS63 KARX 152017 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 317 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014 FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS SQUARELY ON THE SEVERE THREAT MONDAY EVENING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA...IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE VARIOUS 15.12Z MODELS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH STARTS TO EJECT OUT OF THE WESTERN LONG WAVE TROUGH AND HEADS TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY STRONG AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE AND IMPINGE ON THE FRONT OVER WESTERN IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHERE THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BUT IT SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT EITHER ALONG THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER OR SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS AND CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD THEN SUGGEST THIS COMPLEX WOULD MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. BY 00Z TUESDAY...ML CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2000 J/KG NORTH OF THE FRONT TO POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 3000 J/KG SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS OVER THE AREA. EXPECTING A SEVERE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND THEN MOVE IN WITH THE CAPE AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT IT MOVING INTO THE AREA. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT IF SOME CELLS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE...THERE WILL BE A TORNADO THREAT. 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES EXPECTED TO EXCEED 250 M2/S2 WITH MUCH OF THIS IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER. THE SHEAR IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WITH THE WARM FRONT IN THE AREA...THIS COULD ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR THE TORNADO THREAT. HAVE ALREADY COORDINATED WITH SPC ON THE EXPANSION OF THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK INTO THE AREA. PLAN TO SHOW JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE FAR WEST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY RAISING THAT UP TO 70 TO 80 PERCENT DURING THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS COMPLEX WILL EXIT THE AREA EITHER LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING BUT THE FRONT WILL STILL BE IN THE AREA. THE 15.12Z NAM AND GFS ALONG WITH THE 15.15Z SREF WOULD SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM FROM EITHER SOUTHWEST OR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE 15.12Z ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH OVER NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INITIATING ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT. DEPENDING THE POSITION OF THE FRONT...THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD INITIATE OVER THE AREA IF THE ECMWF FRONTAL POSITION IS CORRECT...OR FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS SHOWN BY THE OTHER MODELS. WOULD TEND TO THINK THAT THE COMPLEX FROM MONDAY NIGHT WOULD HOLD THE FRONT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...BROAD BRUSHED SOME 40 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SEVERE STORMS COULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MODELS SHOWING 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT PUSHING ML CAPES TO AROUND 4000 J/KG AND 3000 J/KG NORTH OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM SHEAR SHOULD BE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS NORTH OF THE FRONT...SO WILL HAVE TO BETTER DEFINE THE SEVERE AREA ONCE THE COMPLEX FROM MONDAY NIGHT GOES THROUGH. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING COULD ALSO BE A THREAT IF THE STORMS CAN TRAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT AS WARM CLOUD DEPTHS SHOULD BE 3.5 TO 4 KM. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014 THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH. THIS UPPER LEVEL IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE REGION...ALTHOUGH IS SHOULD BE SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH MOVE EAST. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSEST TO THE AREA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014 A COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF IT AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ALSO...PLAN ON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM NEAR KLSE THROUGH 2100Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS EXPECTED AT KRST THIS AFTERNOON BUT THIS SHOULD QUICKLY SCATTER OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TONIGHT BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHALLOW FOG...BUT GIVEN THE WINDS ALOFT AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN...THINKING FOG WILL NOT FORM. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KRST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014 HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR WABASHA MINNESOTA. THE RIVER REMAINS HIGH AND WITH THE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL IN THIS AREA AND FARTHER NORTH INTO MINNESOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE EXPECTED RAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE IS A DECENT PROBABILITY OF RENEWED FLOODING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...WETENKAMP HYDROLOGY...04  FXUS63 KARX 162034 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 334 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT THEN AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE GROWING CONCERN TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. A WARM FRONT CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...STRETCHING FROM NEAR SIOUX FALLS SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA TO NEAR DAVENPORT. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD APPROACH THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE WAS LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA ON THE NOSE OF INCREASING 925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. EARLIER CONVECTION OVER WESTERN INTO CENTRAL IOWA HAS DIED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO MAKE ITS NORTHWARD SHIFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL WORK EAST WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY FIRING OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES IN. THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES INTO THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ENHANCING THE 0-3 KM SHEAR...ESPECIALLY IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. 0-6 KM SHEAR FURTHER WEST WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EARLIER ON BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A BOWING STRUCTURE OR A LINE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. WITH THE WARM FRONT IT THE NEIGHBORHOOD AND INCREASING 0-1 KM SHEAR THIS EVENING THERE IS A CONCERN FOR A FEW TORNADOES IN THE LINE IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE BOWING STRUCTURES. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ALSO THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING OVER URBAN AREAS. RAINFALL TONIGHT WILL CERTAINLY PRIME SOME LOCATIONS FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL IN THE COMING DAYS. THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONG INSTABILITY BUILDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE WARM FRONT SET UP AND WHERE WILL THE STORM INITIATE. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KT AND 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUE IN EXCESS OF 3500 J/KG WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELL STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO NEAR THE WARM FRONT. ALSO...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4KM AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE ON HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH AN THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE BOUNDARY BUT SHOULD THEN TAPER OFF LATE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. A TROUGH APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. SHEAR ISN/T AS STRONG BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SO HEAVY RAIN MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO FINALLY TURN A LITTLE DRIER AS FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL AND THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THEN ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014 MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ARE TIMING AND INITIATION OF CONVECTION AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATEST MODEL AND ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL EARLIER BEGIN TIME OF CONVECTION AT BOTH TAF SITES...WITH RST POSSIBLY AS SOON AS 22Z AND 00Z AT LSE. HOWEVER...THIS TIMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN WITH ONGOING AND MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. FOR NOW...WILL INTRODUCE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT RST AFTER 23Z AND LSE AFTER 00Z. SEVERE POTENTIAL EXIST WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. MORE UNCERTAINTY EXIST AS THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT THE TAF SITES AROUND 06Z TUESDAY...AS THE LATEST 16.12Z MODELS LINGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT BOTH TAF SITES TO AROUND 09Z TUESDAY. THE 16.12Z MODELS ALSO SHOW POTENTIAL MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTING AFTER 09Z TUESDAY TO AROUND 16Z TUESDAY AT BOTH TAF SITES. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014 A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 4.0 KM. REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDESTORMS WILL INCREASE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS WEEK. HAVE ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR THE FLOODING POTENTIAL AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEED...ESPECIALLY AFTER TONIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION...DTJ HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP  FXUS63 KARX 170832 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...SHRA/TSRA...SEVERE STORM AND HEAVY RAIN CHANCES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD ONE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/BOW ECHO WITH A WELL DEVELOPED MCV TRACKING INTO EASTERN WI/NORTHERN IL/LK MI. ANOTHER COMPLEX REMAINED OVER NORTHEAST NEB TO CENTRAL IA...ANCHORED BY THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE INTO/OVER THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IA. BROAD AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN NORTHEAST OF THE SECOND COMPLEX CONTINUED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FCST AREA WITH RAIN RATES OF 1 TO 2 TENTHS/HR. NO BIG PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 17.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. GFS WITH ITS TYPICAL BIAS OF SOME 5F TOO HIGH ON SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...WHICH DOES IMPACT ITS CAPE PROGS TODAY. SOLUTIONS REASONABLY SIMILAR IN THE LARGER SCALE AND MID LEVEL DETAILS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES LOW/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. PROBLEM IS THE DEVIL IN THE LOWER LEVEL/MESO SCALE DETAILS THRU TONIGHT...AND MUCH OF THE WEEK. GIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS AND THEIR IMPACTS ON CONVECTION IN THE AREA...SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE. FOR THE SHORT TERM...ELEMENTS DRIVING THE FCST FOR TODAY/TONIGHT SIMILAR TO THOSE THAT DROVE THE MON/MON NIGHT FCST. ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS IA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL KEEP THE SFC BOUNDARY PUSHED SOUTH OF I-80. 925-850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE WEAKENS THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTION ACROSS IA EXPECTED TO WANE. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING OF THE NEXT TRACKABLE SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND SFC WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THRU THE PLAINS WOULD THEN LIFT THE BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN IA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AGAIN FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...PUSHING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES NORTHEASTWARD...INTO/OVER THIS BOUNDARY. APPEARS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/ EVENING...BUT WHERE DEPENDS ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY ENDS UP. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING CAPPING/CIN QUITE LOW NEAR/NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL NOT TAKE MUCH OF A NUDGE/LIFT BY THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE BOUNDARY TO INITIATE CONVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING NORMALIZED CAPE VALUES IN THE .2 TO .4 RANGE...INDICATING /FAT/ CAPE PROFILES MORE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. WIND SHEAR PROFILES...WITH THE BULK OF THE SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER WOULD AGAIN INDICATE EVOLUTION TO A LINE OF STORMS AND A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SEE SWODY1 FOR MORE DETAILS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WHERE THE BOUNDARY...AND EVENTUAL GREATER SHRA/TSRA AND HEAVY RAIN CHANCES END UP AND ONLY AVERAGE CONFIDENCE...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. APPEARS HIGHER THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTH 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA GIVEN THE MORE LIKELY BOUNDARY LOCATION LATE TODAY. DAY CREW WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ONGOING SHRA/TSRA THRU THE MORNING AND IF THE BOUNDARY CAN LIFT NORTH THRU THE DAY. IF IT DOES NOT...MUCH OF THE CONVECTION THRU TONIGHT WOULD END UP SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. FOR NOW WILL TREND FCST FOR TODAY/TONIGHT TOWARD THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS PENDING RESOLUTION OF THE MESO-SCALE DETAIL DIFFERENCES. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR WED THROUGH THU NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA WITH SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN THREATS THRU THE PERIOD. 18.00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WED/WED NIGHT AS HGTS RISE OVER THE REGION...AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LESSER AGREEMENT THU/THU NIGHT AS THIS LOW LIFTS TO NEAR THE ND/MAN/SASKAT BORDER BY 12Z FRI. AT THE SFC...DECENT AGREEMENT FOR A LOW TO LIFT INTO EASTERN SD BY WED EVENING...THEN DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND THE TRAILING FRONT/SFC TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THU/THU NIGHT. THESE DIFFERENCES BY LATER WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT HAVE IMPACTS ON THE EVOLUTION OF LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING AND WHERE THE GREATER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES...AND SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL... WOULD END UP IN ANY ONE PERIOD. FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE FOR WED THRU THU NIGHT. CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING EAST OF THE AREA WED MORNING WITH A BREAK FROM THE SHRA/TSRA FOR A TIME DURING THE DAY...MUCH LIKE TODAY. SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE SHOVED SOUTH/WEST OF THE AREA. BOUNDARY REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR LIFTING LATER IN THE DAY/WED NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AGAIN...PUSHING A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS LATE WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AGAIN SHOWING MINIMAL CIN/CAPPING AND NORMALIZED CAPES OF 0.2 TO 0.4...FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL. RISING HGTS OVER THE AREA WED/WED NIGHT BUT AREA WEST OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND THE MID LEVEL LOW/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTH-CENTRAL CAN. NOT AS MUCH OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS LATE WED/WED NIGHT...BUT FLOW ALOFT IS DIFFLUENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVE TILTED BY 12Z THU. DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK PER SWODY2 LOOKS GOOD. ANY TSRA WED/WED NIGHT WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MORE HEAVY RAINS...BUT WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT OF THE HEAVY RAINS WOULD BE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THE NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE ACROSS MN THU/THU NIGHT...PUSHING A NORTH-SOUTH SFC TROUGH FRONT EAST INTO THE AREA LATE THU/THU NIGHT. FALLING HGTS AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH TO AID LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING FOR SHRA/TSRA. AFTER A LULL IN SHRA/TSRA FOR A TIME WED... CONTINUED 50-70 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WED NIGHT THRU THU NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR WED THRU THU NIGHT. DEPENDING ON TIMING/ COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THU/RESULTING CLOUD COVER...HIGHS IN THE FCST GRIDS THAT DAY MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/... MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS PERIOD...CONTINUING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FRI THRU SUN...TEMPERATURES. REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG 18.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS FOR THE MID LEVEL LOW/CIRCULATION TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER FRI THRU SAT NIGHT THEN DROP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUN. HGTS RISE MON AS LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO CENTRAL NOAM. NOT A LOT OF TIME SPENT IN THE DETAILS OF DAY 4-7 BUT FCST CONFIDENCE APPEARS TO BE AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD. THE TROUGH MOVING EAST ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER LOOKS TO PUSH A SECONDARY SFC TROUGH/FRONT ACROSS THE REGION CENTERED ON FRI NIGHT...FOR CONTINUED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. DETAILS OF ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE POTENTIAL TSRA FAR FROM CLEAR. MID LEVEL CIRCULATION DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SUN DROPS A SFC TROUGH AND MID LEVEL COOLING ACROSS MN/IA/WI FOR AT LEAST A SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCE THAT DAY. MONDAY TRENDS TO BE A DRY DAY AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/RISING HGTS ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN PLENTY OF DETAIL/TIMING DIFFERENCES...ESPECIALLY BY SAT...DID NOT STRAY FROM THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/ LOWS FOR DAYS 4-7. TEMPS CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL THRU SAT...THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL SUN/MON AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WOULD START TO TAKE OVER. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA ON INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY VFR THOUGH THERE ARE SOME SPOTS WHERE CEILINGS DROP DOWN TO AROUND 2KFT IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS THE COMPLEX DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH...THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR REGION-WIDE. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY TOMORROW DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER WE WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS OR IF IT WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT A VCTS IN THERE FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AT RST AND AFTER 00Z AT LSE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT COME THROUGH. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 4.0 KM. REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO ISSUE A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR FLOODING/ FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NEED THROUGH THE WEEK AS DETAILS ON ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF TSRA/LOCATION OF GREATER RISK OF MORE HEAVY RAINS BECOME CLEARER. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RRS LONG TERM....RRS AVIATION.....HALBACH HYDROLOGY....RRS  FXUS63 KARX 172057 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 357 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST SETUP FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH TIMING WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACES A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SIOUX FALLS EAST THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA THEN DIVING SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A STRONG CAP CENTERED AROUND 725 MB AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER UPPER RIDGING IS KEEPING THE CONVECTION FROM FIRING THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS WILL CHANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES INTO THE WARM FRONT. IF STORMS GET ROLLING EARLIER THAN THIS EVENING ALONG THE WARM FRONT THEY WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO NEAR THE WARM FRONT BUT 0-1 KM SHEAR LOOKS RATHER WEAK. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE WITH 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG AND THIS INSTABILITY IS FEEDING NORTHWARD INTO THE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD REALLY GET GOING IN THE 900 PM TO 1000 PM TIMEFRAME AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. THE CONVECTION MAY ACTUALLY FIRE RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND ORGANIZE INTO BOWING STRUCTURE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. GIVEN THE STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR BY THAT TIME CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES TONIGHT SO ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...CHOSE TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FROM 7PM TONIGHT THOUGH 7 AM WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STORMS BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WHERE BOUNDARIES SET UP FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 4.0 KM. THERE WILL FINALLY BE A BREAK IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH. ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LEANED TOWARD A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WITH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS ARE TIMING AND INITIATION OF CONVECTION AT BOTH RST AND LSE TAF SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. LATEST METARS ARE SHOWING SURFACE WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN IOWA. AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON REGION REMAINS CAPPED OFF...PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS MID LEVEL ALTOCUMULUS DECK OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. UNCERTAINTY EXIST AS TO WHEN INVERSION BREAKS AND WHERE CONVECTION INITIATES OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LATEST 17.12Z MODELS SUGGEST DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA INTERACTS WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE AFTER 21Z TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND POSSIBLY IMPACT THE RST AND LSE TAF SITES FROM AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY TO AROUND 10Z WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MVFR CEILING CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TAF SITES AFTER 03Z WEDNESDAY...DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 4.0 KM. REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO ISSUE A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR FLOODING/ FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. ALSO...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM 7PM TONIGHT THROUGH 7AM WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NEED THROUGH THE WEEK AS DETAILS ON ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF TSRA/LOCATION OF GREATER RISK OF MORE HEAVY RAINS BECOME CLEARER. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR WIZ032-033-041>044-053>055-061. MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION...DTJ HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP  FXUS63 KARX 172337 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 635 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST SETUP FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH TIMING WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACES A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SIOUX FALLS EAST THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA THEN DIVING SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A STRONG CAP CENTERED AROUND 725 MB AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER UPPER RIDGING IS KEEPING THE CONVECTION FROM FIRING THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS WILL CHANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES INTO THE WARM FRONT. IF STORMS GET ROLLING EARLIER THAN THIS EVENING ALONG THE WARM FRONT THEY WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO NEAR THE WARM FRONT BUT 0-1 KM SHEAR LOOKS RATHER WEAK. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE WITH 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG AND THIS INSTABILITY IS FEEDING NORTHWARD INTO THE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD REALLY GET GOING IN THE 900 PM TO 1000 PM TIMEFRAME AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. THE CONVECTION MAY ACTUALLY FIRE RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND ORGANIZE INTO BOWING STRUCTURE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. GIVEN THE STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR BY THAT TIME CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES TONIGHT SO ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...CHOSE TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FROM 7PM TONIGHT THOUGH 7 AM WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STORMS BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WHERE BOUNDARIES SET UP FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 4.0 KM. THERE WILL FINALLY BE A BREAK IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH. ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LEANED TOWARD A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WITH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 MAIN FOCUS HAS BEEN TIMING OF EXPECTED CONVECTION AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET TO THE SOUTHWEST. UNSTABLE AIR...ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...SHOULD FUEL DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER LATER THIS EVENING. TIMING OF THAT A BIT DIFFICULT BUT WOULD EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS AS LINE OF STORMS PASSES THROUGH. DEPENDING ON WHERE BOUNDARY ENDS UP...COULD HAVE ANOTHER LULL BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY SO BESIDES A RETURN OF CAPPED MID LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 4.0 KM. REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO ISSUE A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR FLOODING/ FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. ALSO...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM 7PM TONIGHT THROUGH 7AM WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NEED THROUGH THE WEEK AS DETAILS ON ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF TSRA/LOCATION OF GREATER RISK OF MORE HEAVY RAINS BECOME CLEARER. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR WIZ032-033-041>044-053>055-061. MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION...SHEA HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP  FXUS63 KARX 180235 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 934 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 STARTING TO WONDER IF FLASH FLOODING MAY BE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISK TONIGHT WITH OTHER SEVERE RISKS LOOKING LESS LIKELY COMPARED TO EARLIER. STILL HAVE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT MESOSCALE MODELS AND 17.00Z NAM SUGGEST BETTER CONVERGENCE MIGHT REMAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST / WEST. ISENTROPIC LIFT FIGHTING CAP AND OUTSIDE OF ELEVATED STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...BEEN PRETTY QUIET SO FAR. ALSO SEEING SOME STORMS FIRE CLOSER TO BOUNDARY NEAR ILLINOIS BORDER BUT THOSE TOO ARE NOT GROWING VERY RAPIDLY. WILL LIKELY START TO CHANGE PRODUCE SUITE TO CONCENTRATE ON HEAVY RAIN RISK OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWER EMPHASIS ON OTHER SEVERE WEATHER ELEMENTS. PLAN ON HOLDING ON TO FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH PRIMED SETUP AND CONCERN FROM HEAVY RAIN GROUP AT NESDIS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST SETUP FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH TIMING WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACES A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SIOUX FALLS EAST THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA THEN DIVING SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A STRONG CAP CENTERED AROUND 725 MB AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER UPPER RIDGING IS KEEPING THE CONVECTION FROM FIRING THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS WILL CHANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES INTO THE WARM FRONT. IF STORMS GET ROLLING EARLIER THAN THIS EVENING ALONG THE WARM FRONT THEY WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO NEAR THE WARM FRONT BUT 0-1 KM SHEAR LOOKS RATHER WEAK. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE WITH 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG AND THIS INSTABILITY IS FEEDING NORTHWARD INTO THE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD REALLY GET GOING IN THE 900 PM TO 1000 PM TIMEFRAME AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. THE CONVECTION MAY ACTUALLY FIRE RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND ORGANIZE INTO BOWING STRUCTURE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. GIVEN THE STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR BY THAT TIME CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES TONIGHT SO ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...CHOSE TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FROM 7PM TONIGHT THOUGH 7 AM WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STORMS BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WHERE BOUNDARIES SET UP FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 4.0 KM. THERE WILL FINALLY BE A BREAK IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH. ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LEANED TOWARD A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WITH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 MAIN FOCUS HAS BEEN TIMING OF EXPECTED CONVECTION AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET TO THE SOUTHWEST. UNSTABLE AIR...ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...SHOULD FUEL DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER LATER THIS EVENING. TIMING OF THAT A BIT DIFFICULT BUT WOULD EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS AS LINE OF STORMS PASSES THROUGH. DEPENDING ON WHERE BOUNDARY ENDS UP...COULD HAVE ANOTHER LULL BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY SO BESIDES A RETURN OF CAPPED MID LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 4.0 KM. REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO ISSUE A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR FLOODING/ FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. ALSO...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM 7PM TONIGHT THROUGH 7AM WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NEED THROUGH THE WEEK AS DETAILS ON ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF TSRA/LOCATION OF GREATER RISK OF MORE HEAVY RAINS BECOME CLEARER. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR WIZ032-033-041>044-053>055-061. MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION...SHEA HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP  FXUS63 KARX 180432 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1132 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 STARTING TO WONDER IF FLASH FLOODING MAY BE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISK TONIGHT WITH OTHER SEVERE RISKS LOOKING LESS LIKELY COMPARED TO EARLIER. STILL HAVE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT MESOSCALE MODELS AND 17.00Z NAM SUGGEST BETTER CONVERGENCE MIGHT REMAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST / WEST. ISENTROPIC LIFT FIGHTING CAP AND OUTSIDE OF ELEVATED STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...BEEN PRETTY QUIET SO FAR. ALSO SEEING SOME STORMS FIRE CLOSER TO BOUNDARY NEAR ILLINOIS BORDER BUT THOSE TOO ARE NOT GROWING VERY RAPIDLY. WILL LIKELY START TO CHANGE PRODUCE SUITE TO CONCENTRATE ON HEAVY RAIN RISK OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWER EMPHASIS ON OTHER SEVERE WEATHER ELEMENTS. PLAN ON HOLDING ON TO FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH PRIMED SETUP AND CONCERN FROM HEAVY RAIN GROUP AT NESDIS. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST SETUP FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH TIMING WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACES A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM SIOUX FALLS EAST THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA THEN DIVING SOUTHWARD TO ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. A STRONG CAP CENTERED AROUND 725 MB AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER UPPER RIDGING IS KEEPING THE CONVECTION FROM FIRING THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS WILL CHANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES INTO THE WARM FRONT. IF STORMS GET ROLLING EARLIER THAN THIS EVENING ALONG THE WARM FRONT THEY WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO NEAR THE WARM FRONT BUT 0-1 KM SHEAR LOOKS RATHER WEAK. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE WITH 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG AND THIS INSTABILITY IS FEEDING NORTHWARD INTO THE FRONT. STORMS SHOULD REALLY GET GOING IN THE 900 PM TO 1000 PM TIMEFRAME AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. THE CONVECTION MAY ACTUALLY FIRE RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND ORGANIZE INTO BOWING STRUCTURE WITH HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. GIVEN THE STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR BY THAT TIME CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES TONIGHT SO ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE SATURATED SOILS OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...CHOSE TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FROM 7PM TONIGHT THOUGH 7 AM WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND STORMS SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STORMS BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WHERE BOUNDARIES SET UP FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO TURN SOUTHWEST AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 4.0 KM. THERE WILL FINALLY BE A BREAK IN THE HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH. ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LEANED TOWARD A MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WITH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 TRYING TO TIME CONVECTION AND EVENTUAL IMPACT ON AVIATION TOUGH AT THIS POINT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER BOUNDARY AND INTO UNSTABLE LAYER ABOVE CAP. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT WILL TRY AND TIME HIGHER STORM THREAT WINDOWS. ASSUMING ACTIVITY WILL QUIET DOWN AGAIN DURING LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR PERIOD OF CONVECTION FREE/VFR. COULD SEE ANOTHER THREAT DEVELOP GOING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET RESTABLISHES ITSELF BUT WILL HAVE TO ADD THOSE DETAILS IN CLOSER IN TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 4.0 KM. REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED TO ISSUE A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR FLOODING/ FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. ALSO...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM 7PM TONIGHT THROUGH 7AM WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NEED THROUGH THE WEEK AS DETAILS ON ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF TSRA/LOCATION OF GREATER RISK OF MORE HEAVY RAINS BECOME CLEARER. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR WIZ032-033-041>044-053>055-061. MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-094>096. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030. && $$ UPDATE...SHEA SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION...SHEA HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP  FXUS63 KARX 180845 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 345 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...SHRA/TSRA/SEVERE CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD LOW PRESSURE IN FAR NORTHEAST CO WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEAST ACROSS NEB THEN ACROSS NORTHERN IA. THIS BOUNDARY AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE OF A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO/OVER IT REMAIN THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISMS FOR SHRA/TSRA ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. AFTER A LULL/SLOW START THRU MUCH OF THE EVENING... CONVECTION GENERALLY INCREASING FROM SOUTHEAST SD TO MUCH OF WI EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST CELLS SLOWER MOVING THIS MORNING...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. NO BIG PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 18.00Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLUTIONS RATHER SIMILAR IN THE LARGER SCALE FOR TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW/TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TREND FAVORS FASTER OF THE EARLIER RUNS WITH THE PORTION OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO NEB/SD/ND BY 12Z THU. BETTER CONSENSUS OF THE SFC LOW/TROUGH/ FRONT TO NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER AT 12Z THU. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF MESO-SCALE/LOWER-LEVEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES...WHICH IMPACT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. GIVEN THESE DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE AT BEST THIS CYCLE. SHORT-TERM FCST PROBLEMATIC THIS CYCLE WITH NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CAN-GEM STRUGGLING ON CONVECTION TIMING/PLACEMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR AND RAP13 HIGH-RES/WRF RUNS DOING BETTER CAPTURING SHRA/TSRA TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING. SHRA/TSRA MOTION GRADUALLY BECOMING EASTERLY AS CONVECTION/COMPLEX MATURES AND TAKES ON THE CORFIDI VECTOR MOTION...AND HEADING INTO THE FCST AREA. MAINTENANCE AS IT COMES EAST THRU THE MID MORNING HOURS IS THE BIGGER QUESTION. THE STRONGER OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST IA...AND WEAKENS THRU 12Z AND 18Z TODAY. HOWEVER MODELS INDICATE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF 925-850MB LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS OVER NORTHERN IA/SOUTHERN MN THRU AT LEAST 12Z. WILL FOLLOW TRENDS OF HRRR/RUC13 AND CARRY LIKELY/CATEGORICAL MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY THIS MORNING...TRENDING DOWNWARD THRU THE MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE/INFLOW GRADUALLY WEAKEN... BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THIS. LOWER LEVEL FORCING/LIFT INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO BE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FCST AREA AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKING TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CONTINUED THE 60-70 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TONIGHT. WITH PW VALUES OF AROUND 1.75 INCHES OR HIGHER IN THE INFLOW AIR... WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF AROUND 4KM AND THE SLOWER STORM MOTION...TSRA WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAIN RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR. FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS DUE TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM THIS MORNING. WILL EXTEND THIS TO 7 AM THU. GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR FOCUSING LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LIFT OF THIS AIRMASS IN THE AREA...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS/FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TONIGHT. EXPECTATIONS ARE THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST AREA AROUND MID-DAY TODAY... BUT SEEMS EASIER TO JUST RUN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU 12Z THU. EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS MAY OCCUR REMAINS IN QUESTION BUT 3 HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA ARE AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS. SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSRA CONTINUES TODAY/TONIGHT...SEE SWODY1 FOR DETAILS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT...CONTINUED HIGHER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES...SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN THREATS THU/THU NIGHT. 18.00Z MODELS OFFER SLOWLY IMPROVING AGREEMENT THU THRU FRI NIGHT AS THE US/CAN BORDER MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND PUSHES 2 LOWER LEVEL/SFC TROUGH/FRONTS INTO THE FCST AREA. FIRST OF THESE TO ADVANCE IN THU NIGHT AND THE SECOND TO PUSH TOWARD THE AREA FRI NIGHT. PLENTY OF MESO-SCALE/LOWER LEVEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN THE THU-FRI NIGHT PERIOD...MAKING FCST CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD ALSO AVERAGE AT BEST. FIRST LOWER LEVEL TROUGH FRONT TO HAVE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF PW AHEAD OF IT THU. WITH FALLING HGTS ALOFT AND WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING THRU THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW....LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO AID CONVECTION THU. STRONGER OF THE LOWER LEVEL FORCING/LIFT SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA THU...SLOWLY TRANSLATING EAST OF THE AREA THU NIGHT. CONTINUED THE 60-75 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THU...TRENDING DOWNWARD AND EASTWARD THU NIGHT. POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR MORE DOWNPOURS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THU/THU NIGHT...AND IN TIME WILL LIKELY HAVE TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THRU THU/THU NIGHT. WITH SOME INCREASE OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR THU/THU EVENING...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THU. SEE SWODY2 FOR DETAILS. THIS THU/THU EVENING RISK MAY BE MUTED IF CONVECTION IS ONGOING OR DEVELOPS ALREADY THU MORNING. BY THE TIME THE SECOND LOWER LEVEL TROUGH/FRONT ARRIVES MORE WESTERLY 850-700MB FLOW BEHIND THE FIRST TROUGH/FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED SOME OF THE DEEPER/HIGHER PW AIRMASS EAST OF THE AREA. WITH THE AREA BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS FRI...LESSER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OR TRENDING TOWARD DRY SEEMS REASONABLE. SOME INCREASE OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING FRI NIGHT AS THE SFC-850MB TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. 20-40 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BY LATER FRI NIGHT ALSO REASONABLE. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS LOWS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.../DAYS 4-7/... ONCE AGAIN...DID NOT SPEND A LOT OF TIME LOOKING AT THE DETAILS IN THE DAY 4-7 PORTION OF THE FCST. 18.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN AND TRACK THE US/CAN BORDER LOW FURTHER NORTH/EAST SAT...WITH BROAD WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BREAKS DOWN SUNDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER CENTRAL NOAM AND ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH DROPS DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THIS RIDGE TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF TIMING/DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGHING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MON/TUE. NEEDLESS TO DAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE SAT-TUE PORTION OF THE FCST IS BELOW AVERAGE. MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS A SERIES OF LOWER LEVEL TROUGHS AND ROUNDS OF INCREASED MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT THRU TUE. THIS PERIOD LOOKS DRIER THAN THIS WEEK...BUT MODEL/ ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HAS PERSISTENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BY SUNDAY...WITH MORE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING BRINGING COOLER MID LEVEL AIR TO THE REGION...TEMPS FOR SUN-TUE DO LOOK TO COOL TO MORE NEAR NORMAL VALUES...WITH LOWER DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY VALUES. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU TUE APPEAR TO HAVE THIS WELL TRENDED. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2014 TRYING TO TIME CONVECTION AND EVENTUAL IMPACT ON AVIATION TOUGH AT THIS POINT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER BOUNDARY AND INTO UNSTABLE LAYER ABOVE CAP. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT WILL TRY AND TIME HIGHER STORM THREAT WINDOWS. ASSUMING ACTIVITY WILL QUIET DOWN AGAIN DURING LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR PERIOD OF CONVECTION FREE/VFR. COULD SEE ANOTHER THREAT DEVELOP GOING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET REESTABLISHES ITSELF BUT WILL HAVE TO ADD THOSE DETAILS IN CLOSER IN TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING 4.0 KM. TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. REPEATED ROUNDS OF THESE TSRA WILL PRODUCE A HEIGHTENED FLASH FLOOD THREAT THRU THU NIGHT. HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THRU 7 AM THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THRU THU/THU NIGHT. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WIZ032-033- 041>044-053>055-061. MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088- 094>096. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018- 019-029-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...RRS LONG TERM....RRS AVIATION.....TJS HYDROLOGY....RRS  FXUS63 KARX 182026 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 326 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE LATEST 18.12Z GFS/NAM INDICATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE TO INCREASE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHIFT THE NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE INTO FORECAST AREA BY 06Z THURSDAY. WITH SUBTLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...EXPECT ANOTHER MCS TO FORM AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 03-06Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE MCS WILL FORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL HAVE AN IMPACT WHERE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL OVER FORECAST AREA. THE 18.12Z GFS/NAM AND 15Z RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-2 INCHES ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH EXTENDING UP TO 4KM PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER FORECAST AREA WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND PRODUCE LOCAL HEAVY RAIN. THE 18.12Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND TRACK ACROSS FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEXT CONCERN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE 18.12Z GFS/NAM INDICATE MAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND 0-3KM SHEAR IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOTS RANGE ACROSS FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS SUGGEST ALL SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER...AS THE 0-6KM SHEAR SHOWS ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. AT THIS TIME...LOOKING AT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 18.12Z GFS/NAM SHOW WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH IMPULSE...SHOULD ALLOW THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 18.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE INDICATED BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH TIMING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON TIMING OF MOISTURE RETURN/PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT CONCERN ARE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE 18.12Z GFS/ECMWF DIFFERING SLIGHTLY ON STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE 18.12Z GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW COOL AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE 18.12Z ECMWF ADVECTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THE 18.12Z GFS. THE 18.12Z ECMWF SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUS 10 TO PLUS 12 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER FORECAST AREA...COMPARED TO PLUS 12 TO PLUS 14 DEGREES CELSIUS 850MB TEMPERATURES BY THE 18.12Z GFS. TEMPERATURES OVER FORECAST AREA BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE UNSEASONABLY COOL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS...WHICH REMAIN SOMEWHAT TROUBLE TO NAIL DOWN. IN WAKE OF OVERNIGHT SYSTEM...EXPECT QUIET PERIOD THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY BUT WITH WARM FRONT BOUNDARY STILL IN AREA AND LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP AGAIN TONIGHT...COULD SEE REPEAT PERFORMANCE WITH MAINLY LATE NIGHT STORMS AGAIN. BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT SEEMS FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT SO UNSURE OF INTENSITY BUT LEANED ON LATE NIGHT CONVECTION AND TRIED TO NARROW DOWN A SMALL TIME WINDOW FOR BRUNT OF STORMS/LOWEST AVIATION CATEGORIES. CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR OUT THURSDAY MORNING SO RETURN TO VFR. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS UP TO 4 KM. THE COMBINATION OF ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO...DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...THE CEDAR...TREMPEALEAU AND BLACK RIVERS HAVE RISEN OR ARE FORECASTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT PORTIONS OF THESE RIVERS. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR EXACT FORECAST DETAILS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR WIZ032>034- 041>044-053>055-061. MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088- 094>096. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018- 019-029-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...DTJ LONG TERM...DTJ AVIATION...TJS HYDROLOGY...DTJ  FXUS63 KARX 190259 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 959 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ERUPTING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE 12C 700 MB CAP AND IN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS. IN ADDITION A 30 TO 40 KNOT 850 MB JET IS SURGING INTO THIS AREA. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS DRAMATICALLY INCREASED FROM SIOUX FALLS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS GREATHER THAN 4 KM...HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN. HOWEVER THE RAP ANALYSIS DOES SUGGEST THAT THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BECOME SUPERCELLULAR BETWEEN NOW AND 1 AM...THIS COULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE LATEST 18.12Z GFS/NAM INDICATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE TO INCREASE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHIFT THE NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE INTO FORECAST AREA BY 06Z THURSDAY. WITH SUBTLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...EXPECT ANOTHER MCS TO FORM AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 03-06Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE MCS WILL FORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL HAVE AN IMPACT WHERE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL OVER FORECAST AREA. THE 18.12Z GFS/NAM AND 15Z RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-2 INCHES ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH EXTENDING UP TO 4KM PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER FORECAST AREA WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND PRODUCE LOCAL HEAVY RAIN. THE 18.12Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND TRACK ACROSS FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEXT CONCERN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE 18.12Z GFS/NAM INDICATE MAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND 0-3KM SHEAR IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOTS RANGE ACROSS FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS SUGGEST ALL SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER...AS THE 0-6KM SHEAR SHOWS ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. AT THIS TIME...LOOKING AT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 18.12Z GFS/NAM SHOW WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH IMPULSE...SHOULD ALLOW THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 18.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE INDICATED BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH TIMING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON TIMING OF MOISTURE RETURN/PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT CONCERN ARE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE 18.12Z GFS/ECMWF DIFFERING SLIGHTLY ON STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE 18.12Z GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW COOL AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE 18.12Z ECMWF ADVECTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THE 18.12Z GFS. THE 18.12Z ECMWF SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUS 10 TO PLUS 12 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER FORECAST AREA...COMPARED TO PLUS 12 TO PLUS 14 DEGREES CELSIUS 850MB TEMPERATURES BY THE 18.12Z GFS. TEMPERATURES OVER FORECAST AREA BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE UNSEASONABLY COOL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 A SCATTERED TO BROKEN 2500 TO 5000 FOOT DECK OF CLOUDS HEVAE DEVELOPED NORTH A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. SOME OF 5K FOOT DECK EXTENDS AS FAR NORTH AS THE TAF SITES. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS AND INTERCEPTS STRONG 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM THE TWIN CITIES SOUTHEAST IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 19.04Z AND 19.06Z. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THEN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW OF THE MESO MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANOTHER SQUALL LINE COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 19.08Z AND 19.11Z. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET TO ADD THIS TO THE WIND FORECAST. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE ON OCCASION A BROKEN 1500 TO 2500 DECK OF CLOUDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION AND THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE MESO MODELS SUCH AS THE ARW SUGGEST THAT WE MAY BE A BIT TOO SOON AT BRINGING THEM INTO THE TAF SITES. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS UP TO 4 KM. THE COMBINATION OF ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO...DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...THE CEDAR...TREMPEALEAU AND BLACK RIVERS HAVE RISEN OR ARE FORECASTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT PORTIONS OF THESE RIVERS. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR EXACT FORECAST DETAILS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR WIZ032>034-041>044- 053>055-061. MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ079-086>088- 094>096. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR IAZ008>011-018-019- 029-030. && $$ UPDATE...BOYNE SHORT TERM...DTJ LONG TERM...DTJ AVIATION...BOYNE HYDROLOGY...DTJ  FXUS63 KARX 190531 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1231 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ERUPTING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE 12C 700 MB CAP AND IN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS. IN ADDITION A 30 TO 40 KNOT 850 MB JET IS SURGING INTO THIS AREA. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS DRAMATICALLY INCREASED FROM SIOUX FALLS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS GREATHER THAN 4 KM...HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN. HOWEVER THE RAP ANALYSIS DOES SUGGEST THAT THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BECOME SUPERCELLULAR BETWEEN NOW AND 1 AM...THIS COULD RESULT IN POCKETS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WARM FRONT/RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA. TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE LATEST 18.12Z GFS/NAM INDICATE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE TO INCREASE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SHIFT THE NOSE OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE INTO FORECAST AREA BY 06Z THURSDAY. WITH SUBTLE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...EXPECT ANOTHER MCS TO FORM AND MOVE CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 03-06Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE MCS WILL FORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL HAVE AN IMPACT WHERE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL OVER FORECAST AREA. THE 18.12Z GFS/NAM AND 15Z RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5-2 INCHES ACROSS FORECAST AREA AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH EXTENDING UP TO 4KM PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER FORECAST AREA WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND PRODUCE LOCAL HEAVY RAIN. THE 18.12Z GFS/NAM SUGGEST WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND TRACK ACROSS FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NEXT CONCERN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY IS SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE 18.12Z GFS/NAM INDICATE MAINLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND 0-3KM SHEAR IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOTS RANGE ACROSS FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS SUGGEST ALL SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER...AS THE 0-6KM SHEAR SHOWS ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. AT THIS TIME...LOOKING AT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE 18.12Z GFS/NAM SHOW WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH IMPULSE...SHOULD ALLOW THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 18.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARE INDICATED BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH TIMING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON TIMING OF MOISTURE RETURN/PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. NEXT CONCERN ARE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THE 18.12Z GFS/ECMWF DIFFERING SLIGHTLY ON STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE 18.12Z GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW COOL AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE 18.12Z ECMWF ADVECTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN THE 18.12Z GFS. THE 18.12Z ECMWF SHOWING 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUS 10 TO PLUS 12 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER FORECAST AREA...COMPARED TO PLUS 12 TO PLUS 14 DEGREES CELSIUS 850MB TEMPERATURES BY THE 18.12Z GFS. TEMPERATURES OVER FORECAST AREA BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE UNSEASONABLY COOL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014 STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...AND THEN BETWEEN 19.10Z AND 19.13Z THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AWAY FROM THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT WED JUN 18 2014 THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS UP TO 4 KM. THE COMBINATION OF ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO...DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...THE CEDAR...TREMPEALEAU AND BLACK RIVERS HAVE RISEN OR ARE FORECASTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AND FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT PORTIONS OF THESE RIVERS. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR EXACT FORECAST DETAILS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ032>034- 041>044-053>055-061. MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088- 094>096. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018- 019-029-030. && $$ UPDATE...BOYNE SHORT TERM...DTJ LONG TERM...DTJ AVIATION...BOYNE HYDROLOGY...DTJ  FXUS63 KARX 212047 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 347 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014 AT 3 PM...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY...GENERATED FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS IN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA LAST EVENING...WAS MOVING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN AN AREA OF 2500 J/KG SURFACE CAPES. BOTH THE 21.12Z ARW AND LATEST HRRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS ADAMS AND JUNEAU COUNTIES IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH 22.03Z...AND THEN THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WILL BE DRY AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAX AND SHORT WAVE RIDGE. ON SUNDAY...THE 21.12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES... THE AREA ENTERS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 50 KNOT 250 MB JET...AND THE SURFACE BASE CAPES CLIMB INTO THE 3-4K J/KG RANGE. WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS...THEY DO DIFFER SOME ON HOW ORGANIZED THIS CONVECTION BECOMES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ARW SUGGEST A LINE OF STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE 21.12Z SPC WRF SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTION WILL BE LESS ORGANIZED. WHILE THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NOT SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS...THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RUNNING IN THE 7 TO 8 C/KM RANGE WHICH WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE HAIL AND DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUDS MAY AID IN STRENGTHENING THE DOWN DRAFTS...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR PULSE SEVERE STORMS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014 FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AS THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE JET WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. IN ADDITION... PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS CLIMB TO 4 KM AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SOME MORE FLOODING. WITH MODELS DEVIATING ON THE TIMING...LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...HELD OFF ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. WHILE THE 0-6 KM SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...THE 0-3 KM DOES EXCEED 30 KNOTS AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME WIND DAMAGE AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. MONDAY NIGHT IS NOW LOOKING DRY IN ALL OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...EITHER REDUCED OR TOOK OUT THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY....A CANADIAN COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. WHILE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT AT DOING THIS... THEY CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL GET. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER THERE IS ONLY WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION WHICH RESULTS IN WEAK 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR...THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A PATTERN SHIFT OCCURS AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUESTIONS ON HOW FAR WEST THIS RIDGE WILL END UP AND THIS WILL GREATLY AFFECT WHETHER WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION OR NOT. DUE TO THIS...JUTS STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014 A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OVERNIGHT STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH MAY BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014 THE MISSISSIPPI TRIBUTARIES HAVE CRESTED AND ARE NOW FALLING. MEANWHILE THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS RISING WITH FLOODING EXPECTED AT WABASHA...WINONA...AND MCGREGOR. AT THIS TIME...LA CROSSE IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN LOOKS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES HELD OFF ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM...BOYNE AVIATION...HALBACH HYDROLOGY...BOYNE  FXUS63 KARX 220841 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 341 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. REGIONAL RADARS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. LATEST TRENDS IN THE IR SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THE CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHWEST IOWA TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...WOULD EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THIS TO MISS THE AREA AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WITH SOME DYING SHOWERS POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS FROM THE REMAINS OF THE MINNESOTA ACTIVITY. WILL START THE MORNING WITH SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FAR WEST TO COVER THIS ACTIVITY. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE NUMEROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CAUGHT IN THE ZONAL FLOW. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS ONE ACROSS NEBRASKA...COLORADO AND MONTANA WITH MORE FARTHER WEST. THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NONE OF THESE WAVES ARE OVERLY STRONG AND AS A RESULT...ONLY PRODUCE SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB FLOW. THE BEST PERIOD OF FORCING LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD COME TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES IN WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SOME WEAK FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS TO DEVELOP IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND THEN MOVES EAST WITH THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MONDAY. THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS LAST WEEK BUT DOES BECOME ORIENTED RIGHT INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 305K SURFACE STAYS WEST OF THE AREA TODAY AND THEN SPREADS IN TONIGHT WITH 2 TO 4 UBAR/S. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF SOME JET DYNAMICS MONDAY WITH THE AREA COMING UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60 KNOT 300 MB JET CORE ACCORDING TO THE 22.00Z NAM. THE BEST MOISTURE RETURN TODAY WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. THIS CAN ALSO BE SEEN IN THE CAPE GRADIENT WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE ACROSS THE EAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 2000-2500 J/KG WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS MOISTURE AXIS THEN SLOWLY WORKS EAST TONIGHT BECOME ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS MONDAY. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE FORCING AND MOISTURE AXIS...EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS TODAY TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES KEEPING THE EAST DRY WITH ONLY A 30 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST. DURING THE HEATING OF THE DAY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND WITH THE BOUNDARY GETTING CLOSER...THE COVERAGE OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST AND BROUGHT THE RAIN CHANCES UP TO ABOUT 60 WHILE STAYING DRY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS THIS MOISTURE PLUME AND FORCING MOVES EAST TONIGHT...INCREASED THE RAIN CHANCES TO 80 FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TO 50 PERCENT IN THE FAR EAST. THE BEST CHANCES WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS MONDAY WHILE STARTING TO DIMINISH IN THE WEST AND PLAN TO SHOW 80 PERCENT IN THE EAST TO 50 PERCENT IN THE WEST. THE REMAINS OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT MONDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SOME LINGERING CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST FOR THE EVENING HOURS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF FORCING ALONG THIS FRONT...BUT ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY GENERATE SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY AND WILL SHOW ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA UP TO 50 PERCENT IN NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE CHANCES FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CONTINUE TO LOOK PRETTY SMALL FOR TODAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE AMPLE CAPE IN PLACE...THE SHEAR LOOKS TO BE LACKING WITH AT MOST ABOUT 20 KNOTS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. THIS DOES INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS IN THE EVENING SO CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A PULSE STORM OR TWO WITH SOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...BUT JUST DO NOT SEE AN ORGANIZED EVENT HAPPENING. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND RENEWED FLASH FLOODING. THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS INCREASE TO ALMOST 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH THE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASING TO 3.5 KM. THESE CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED. GIVEN ALL THE RECENT RAINS THAT JUST OCCURRED...MOST OF THIS RAINFALL SHOULD BE TURNED INTO RUNOFF WHICH COULD PRODUCE MORE FLASH FLOODING. WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014 LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FLOW SHOULD THEN START TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A TROUGH DIGS IN ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. DESPITE RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION...THERE SHOULD STILL BE PIECES OF ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AND RIDING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014 MAIN WEATHER STORY OCCURS SUNDAY AT TAF SITES AS INSTABILITY BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND STORMS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IN THE MORNING...IT APPEARS AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT WILL BE WEST OF KRST WITH DAKOTAS STORMS MOVING TO ABOUT I-35 IN MN/IA...THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY LEAVING DEBRIS CLOUD INTO KRST AND KLSE. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN TOO...WILL HAVE TO LET THIS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A FLIGHT RESTRICTION WITH IT. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BE BUILDING AND A FRONT WILL WORK OUT OF THE WEST VERY SLOWLY. VERY MOIST AIR WILL MOVE IN BY EVENING WITH INCREASING STORM AND HEAVY RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY FOR KRST. AFTER 06Z...EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO COME DOWN IN RAIN AND STORMS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014 OUTSIDE OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...ALMOST ALL THE OTHER RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE GOING DOWN OR ARE EXPECTED TO SOON DO SO. HOWEVER...THIS TREND MAY NOT LAST VERY LONG WITH THE EXPECTED RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WITH THE WIDESPREAD 1 TO 1.5 INCHES EXPECTED...RENEWED FLOODING WILL BECOME A CONCERN ALONG A LOT OF THE RIVERS AND STREAMS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ032-033. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR WIZ017-029-034-041-042-053>055-061. MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MNZ079-086>088-094-095. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MNZ096. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-029. FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR IAZ011-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...BAUMGARDT HYDROLOGY...04  FXUS63 KARX 250931 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 431 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL/CENTRAL WISCONSIN IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST TODAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SITUATED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND RAN SOUTHEAST NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH SURFACE HEATING TODAY WE SHOULD SEE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 400 TO 700 J/KG. IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM...MESOSCALE MODELS ENHANCE THE CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF COLD AIR FUNNEL OR TWO NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON IF WE CAN BUILD ENOUGH CAPE. THE 06Z NAM12 DOES INDICATE SOME NON- SUPERCELL TORNADO SIGNAL ALONG THE WIND SHIFT SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE APPEARS VERY LOW. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN SO THIS IS WHERE THE NAM IS SHOWING THE NST POTENTIAL. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT GENERATING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON SO DECIDED TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND GO WITH COVERAGE WORDING OVER THESE AREAS. WITH COOLER AIR FLOWING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...HIGH TEMPERATURE OVER THESE AREAS WILL BE IN THE THE LOWER TO MID 70S. FURTHER SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST IOWA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER BEING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SEEING A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE AT TIMES TODAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND THE RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT. THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES. 25.03Z SREF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST DENS FOG POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA NORTHEAST IOWA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE NCEP HIRES WINDOW ARW AND NMM ARE BOTH SHOWING A SIGNAL FOR THIS DENSE FOG AS WELL. THINKING THE LOW STRATUS OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WOULD START TO ADVECT NORTHWEST AS FLOW AT AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TURNS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY LATE TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014 SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ADVECT A VERY JUICY AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT STAYS WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY BUT THEN STARTS TO TURN EAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THESE MAY GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE BETTER SUPPORT FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...CLIMBING INTO THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THIS JUICY AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THIS AIRMASS TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4.0 TO 4.5 KM. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SHEAR THEN STARTS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SEEING OTHER SEVERE WEATHER TYPES OUTSIDE OF HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KTS. THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON WHEN THE TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER AND MODELS ARE A LITTLE AT ODDS WITH THIS. LOOKING AT THE ECMWF AND GFS THERE IS A TREND TO INCREASE THE SHEAR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ALSO...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO STALL OUT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SO THIS COULD ENHANCE THE THREAT OF SEEING SOME FLASH FLOODING. WITH THE WET SOILS OVER THE REGION WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT VERY CLOSELY THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. IT WILL FEEL RATHER STICKY THIS WEEKEND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW UPPER 80S BUT THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014 VFR CONDITIONS START THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE TAF SITES LOCATED SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT POSITIONED NEAR I-94. THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES AROUND 12Z...WITH A MASS OF MVFR AND IFR STRATUS COMING IN BEHIND IT. BOTH TAF SITES ARE LIKELY TO BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS...BUT STILL FEEL CONFIDENT TO CONTINUE MENTIONING MVFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING AT 12Z. SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. THERE ARE HINTS OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING TOWARDS 09Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS...BUT IT APPEARS THESE SHOULD STAY NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES. LOOK FOR THE MVFR CONDITIONS TO RISE TO VFR BY 16Z WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...HAVE CONTINUED A VCSH MENTION INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE AROUND 03Z WITH CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT. LOOKING AHEAD...WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF SKIES CLEAR OUT LATE THIS EVENING. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 431 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2014 RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK HAS LED TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WHILE RAINFALL IS FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOW THROUGH THURSDAY. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AS A FEED OF MOISTURE RICH AIR INCREASES INTO THE REGION. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION...AJ HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP  FXUS63 KARX 252015 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 315 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...SHRA/ TSRA CHANCES THU/THU NIGHT. DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN IL TO TO NEAR KLSE. WV IMAGERY SHOWED THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN WI. COMBINATION OF SOME CONVERGENCE/LIFT ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY TO 925MB TROUGH AXIS AND MID LEVEL COOLING/DRYING JUST BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE PRODUCING SOME STRONG TSRA ACROSS PORTION OF WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI. ELSEWHERE...LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG/NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR RATHER WIDESPREAD LOWER STRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF WI/MN...WHILE SKIES WERE SUNNY/ MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS IA/NORTHERN IL. CLOUDS/COOLING BEHIND THE WEAK FRONT HOLDING TEMPS DOWN ACROSS MN/WI TODAY. 25.12Z MODELS LOOK TO HAVE INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. SOLUTIONS RATHER SIMILAR SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT AS HGTS SLOWLY RISE AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS MN/IA/WI. THIS IS VERY SHORT-LIVED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING INTO MN/IA BY LATE THU... FLATTENING THE WEAK RIDGING. TREND BY 00Z FRI IS STRONGER/BIT FASTER WITH THE TROUGHING COMING THRU THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FASTER/STRONGER TREND CONTINUES THU NIGHT AS THE TROUGHING STARTS TO EJECT INTO CO/NM...HGTS FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEB/NEARBY STATES. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE GOOD SIDE THIS CYCLE. FOR THE SHORT TERM...THE SFC-925MB TROUGH/FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THRU THE AFTERNOON WHILE MID LEVEL HGTS START TO RISE AND 800- 500MB TEMPS WARM. CAPE OVER THE WI PORTION OF THE FCST AREA DECREASES THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM AND DEW POINTS DROP A BIT IN THE GENERALLY NORTHEAST SFC FLOW OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LK SUPERIOR. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF QUICKLY DOWN AND OUT WITH SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THRU THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A DRY FCST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MUCH OF TONIGHT. WITH CLOUDS HOLDING TEMPS DOWN TODAY AND TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS BY MID EVENING ONLY 5F-10F...LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING RADIATIONAL FOG A CONCERN FOR MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. LK SUPERIOR HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO WI WITH A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...LIGHT ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO DECOUPLE IN THE VALLEYS/LOWER AREAS. CONCERN IS THE LOWER CLOUDS/MOISTURE NEAR 925MB...WHICH MODELS LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND MANIFEST AT A LOW STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT. IF THIS OCCURS...DENSE RADIATIONAL FOG WOULD BE LESS OF A CONCERN LATE TONIGHT. GIVEN THE MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SATURATION UNDER THE NOCTURNAL/BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION LATER TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA IN THE ROUGHLY 03Z-13Z TIME-FRAME. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST SIDE OF THE FCST AREA THRU THE DAY ON THU. HAVING A HARD TIME FINDING THE FORCING FOR THIS WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE/SHORTWAVES WELL WEST OF THE AREA...AT LEAST THRU THE MORNING. SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E NEAR 925MB AND 700MB SHOWS UP BUT THIS MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL/WEST PARTS OF THE FCST AREA FOR LATE THU MORNING THRU AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE OR NO CIN. 20-40 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES OVER MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA REASONABLE FOR THU AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE FCST AREA THU MORNING...MAINLY TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. FORCING/LIFT REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE THU NIGHT...WITH BULK OF 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINING WEST/NORTH OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL LATE. LEFT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THU NIGHT IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE MAIN THERMAL RIDGE/ MOISTURE PLUME/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WEST/NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. CONSENSUS LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU THU NIGHT LOOK WELL TRENDED. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014 MAIN CONCERNS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THRU THE PERIOD. 25.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FRI AS THE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS SLOWLY PROGRESSES AND SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS RIPPLE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES THRU FRI NIGHT/SAT AS A LARGE PIECE OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A TIGHTENING SIGNAL FOR THIS PIECE OF ENERGY TO LIFT INTO MN/IA/WI SAT NIGHT. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES BY SAT NIGHT BUT THIS TO BE EXPECTED IN AN ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN. FCST CONFIDENCE FOR THE FRI THRU SAT NIGHT PERIOD IS AVERAGE TO GOOD THIS CYCLE. WITH THE PATTERN SLOWLY PROGRESSING THRU THE PERIOD AND A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD AND BECOME LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY SAT NIGHT. PW VALUES INCREASE INTO THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE FRI AS THE MOISTURE PLUME/MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST. SFC DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FRI THEN INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S FOR SAT. COMBINED WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S...FRI/SAT TO FEEL LIKE A COUPLE OF RATHER SUMMERY DAYS. WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE COMES INCREASING CAPE...WITH MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE AT 00Z SAT/00Z SUN. THIS EVEN WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5 TO 4+ KM. ANY TSRA IN THIS AIRMASS BY FRI AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS. ANY COVERAGE FRI LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED. 0-3KM AND 0-6KM SHEAR REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FRI THRU MUCH OF SAT THEN INCREASE LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT AS MID LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE START LIFT INTO THE REGION. THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW THRU MID-DAY SAT THEN STARTS TO INCREASE FOR LATER SAT AFTERNOON/NIGHT. STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/... MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA/HEAVY RAIN CHANCES SUN INTO MON...TEMPERATURES. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 25.00Z/25/12Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUN AS TROUGHING AND ENERGY MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CONSISTENCY REMAINS RATHER GOOD MON AS SECONDARY ENERGY/ TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THRU THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE. GOOD SIGNAL FOR SLOWLY RISING HGTS/RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAIN WED. EVEN WITH GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES/FLOW...WITH A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA THE DEVIL WILL BE IN THE SHORTWAVE/MESO-SCALE DETAILS... AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF THESE DIFFERENCES IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD. THUS CONFIDENCE IN THE SUN-WED FCST IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE. A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGHING/SHORTWAVES AND SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH FOR SUN/MON. TIMING OF ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE SUN- MON PERIOD WILL DEPEND ON THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS AND WHEN THE SFC TROUGH/FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. FOR NOW SIDED WITH THE MODEL/ ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS ON SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE HIGH PW VALUES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5 TO 4KM ANY TSRA SUN THRU MON COULD PRODUCE MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. MODEL CONSENSUS PUSHES THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUE. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES DECREASE FOR MON NIGHT/TUE AS DRIER/COOLER AIR AND WEAK CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RISING HGTS EAST OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND THE DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MAKE FOR A GENERALLY DRY DAY WED. FOUND NO REASON TO STRAY FROM THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR SUN-WED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION IS MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF SUN/MON...HIGHS IN THE FCST GRIDS THESE DAYS MAY BE 4F TO 8F TOO WARM. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014 CURRENTLY WATCHING A NEARLY STATIONARY WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NORTH/SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL WI. SOME VIGOROUS CONVECTION WAS NOTED IN THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE... WIDESPREAD CUMULUS/STRATO-CUMULUS WAS NOTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WITH BASES IN THE VFR/MVFR RANGE. BELIEVE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...SHRA/TS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MAINTAINED A VCSH IN THE KLSE TAF BUT REMOVED IT FROM THE KRST TAF. EXPECTING MVFR CLOUD BASES AT KRST/KLSE TO EVENTUALLY BECOME VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH HELP FROM SURFACE HEATING. SIGNAL IS INCREASING FOR SOME FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND FAIRLY MOIST/HUMID AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS. THINKING FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW 3SM AT BOTH KLSE/KRST AFTER 07Z WITH OCCASIONAL IFR STRATUS CIG AT KRST AS WELL FROM 09-13Z. PLAN ON THESE IFR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY MID THURSDAY MORNING. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014 RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK HAS LED TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM THE TWIN CITIES MN TO DUBUQUE IA. SHRA/TSRA ARE IN THE FCST FOR MUCH OF THU THRU FRI NIGHT...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/ TSRA AND HEAVIER RAINFALL RETURNS FOR LATER SAT THRU MON AS A FEED OF VERY MOIST AND WARM AIR INCREASES INTO THE REGION...AHEAD OF A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SFC FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AS DETAILS OF THE WEEKEND HEAVY RAIN THREAT BECOME CLEARER...WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE AN ESF AND OTHER HYDRO PRODUCTS CONCERNING THE RISK OF MORE FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RRS LONG TERM....RRS AVIATION.....DAS HYDROLOGY....RRS  FXUS63 KARX 260934 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 434 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS AND FOG OVER OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS STRATUS DECK WAS ADVECTING WESTWARD AND EXPANDING AS EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE OVER THE AREA. LOOK FOR THIS FOG AND STRATUS TO PUSH INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. WE SHOULD SEE THE STRATUS START TO SLOW IN ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES OVER THE HIGHWAY 52 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA. THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGETOPS. THE STRATUS AND WILL GRADUALLY MIX AND DISSIPATE AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IOWA WILL BE IN PLACE. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CAPE BUILDS THIS AFTERNOON WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS. THE NAM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNAL FOR A NON SUPERCELL TORNADO NEAR THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN IT PUSHES THIS SIGNAL NORTHEAST AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEAST BACK INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE BIG QUESTION TODAY IS HOW MUCH CAPE CAN WE BUILD. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SPREADING IN FROM THE THE WEST OFF OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN NEBRASKA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES STARTS TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AS A TROUGH DIVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL CREATE AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A COUPLE OF VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO MAKE A TURN SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...WITHOUT A STRONG FORCING MECHANISM EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT IF THEY DEVELOP AT ALL. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH STAYS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. 925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT STARTS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES START TO COOL FRIDAY EVENING WE SHOULD STABILIZE AND SEE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPER OFF. WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ON FRIDAY AS A MOIST AIRMASS MOVES IN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH THEN MAKES AN EASTWARD PUSH ON SATURDAY WITH 925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT EDGING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER RIVER SATURDAY MORNING THEN IT INCREASES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4 KM AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.5 TO 1.9. THERE ISN/T A FRONT IN THE AREA FOR THE STORMS TO FOCUS ON BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OUT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT WILL CREATE HYDROLOGY CONCERNS FOR THE LOCAL AREA. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THIS FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVITY CLEARS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY MORNING. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR THEN STARTS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT DIVE PUSH INTO THE AREA. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH WILL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVER FROM THE CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE GFS/ECMWF SAY WE WILL RECOVER AND INCREASE OUT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR TO 35 TO 45 KTS...POSSIBLY EVEN 50 KTS OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MUCH OF THIS SHEAR IS IN THE 0-3 KM RANGE. AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES COULD CLIMB INTO THE 1700 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FRO POTENTIAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE WEST OR IN WESTERN SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE SHEAR BEING MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER EAST OF THE BOUNDARY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...LINEAR STRUCTURES WOULD MOST LIKELY BE THE CONVECTIVE MODE. SOME DETAILS TO SORT OUT SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE...WITH HEAVY RAIN...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS ALL POSSIBLE. DIFFICULT TO SAY IF THERE WOULD TORNADO POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON FORECAST MODELS TRENDS THE NEXT FEW RUNS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2014 VFR CONDITIONS START THE TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER...AGAIN LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING THERE IS A THREAT OF FOG AND STRATUS FOR THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW SOME FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP. HAD THE TAF SITES RECEIVED RAIN YESTERDAY AND CIRRUS WAS NOT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...CONFIDENCE WOULD BE EVEN HIGHER. NEVERTHELESS...HAVE MAINTAINED A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 09-13Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 10-13Z. ANOTHER WAY TO GET THE STRATUS INTO THE TAF SITES IS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW...HELPING TO BRING UP STRATUS CURRENTLY EXPANDING WESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR SOUTHERN WI. BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 17Z DUE TO THE STRONG JUNE SUN...WITH THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME POP UP SHOWERS AROUND RST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS INSTABILITY BUILDS...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A VCSH FOR THIS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK HAS LED TO SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM THE TWIN CITIES MN TO DUBUQUE IA. SHRA/TSRA ARE IN THE FCST TODAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/ TSRA AND HEAVIER RAINFALL RETURNS FOR LATER SAT THRU MON AS A FEED OF VERY MOIST AND WARM AIR INCREASES INTO THE REGION...AHEAD OF A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SFC FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AS DETAILS OF THE WEEKEND HEAVY RAIN THREAT BECOME CLEARER...WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE AN ESF AND OTHER HYDRO PRODUCTS CONCERNING THE RISK OF MORE FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION...AJ HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP  FXUS63 KARX 262009 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 309 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THRU THE PERIOD. 18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER WY/WESTERN PLAINS. A WEAK WARM FRONT/ BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHEAST IA TO EASTERN SD. SOME WEAK 850- 700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE OVER THIS BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL IA. ELSEWHERE... LOWER STRATO-CU DECK IN SFC-925MB SOUTHEAST FLOW WAS LIFTING WITH DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING BUT PERSISTED ACROSS MUCH OF WI AND NEARBY AREAS. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS AGAIN BEING HELD DOWN UNDER THE STRATO- CU CLOUDS. NO BIG PROBLEMS NOTED WITH 26.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. SOLUTIONS QUITE SIMILAR FOR TONIGHT/FRI AS STRONG TROUGHING COMES THRU THE ROCKIES...FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER REGION BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND THE FIRST SOUTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE HEADS TOWARD THE FCST AREA. TREND FAVORS STRONGER OF EARLIER RUNS WITH THE ROCKIES TROUGH AND WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI. TREND CONTINUES TO FAVOR STRONGER OF EARLIER RUNS AS TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL/ NORTHERN PLAINS SAT. WITH A REASONABLY TIGHT CONSENSUS THRU 12Z SAT...FAVORED THE CONSENSUS. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE GENERALLY GOOD THIS CYCLE. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE WEAK 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRODUCING THE CENTRAL IA SHRA/TSRA PERSISTS AND SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO/ACROSS MUCH OF THE FCST AREA THRU THIS EVENING. CAPE WANES QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING BUT SOME MUCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG PROGGED TO PERSIST THRU TONIGHT. WIDELY SCT/SCT SHRA/TSRA LOOKING TO PERCOLATE ACROSS THE FCST AREA TONIGHT AS THE WEAK 850-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIFTS INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FRI/FRI NIGHT IN THE INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SFC-700MB FLOW. LEAD WING OF 850-700MB TRANSPORT MOVES NORTH OF THE FCST AREA FRI MORNING...WITH THE MAIN PLUME OF DEEPER/STRONGER TRANSPORT REMAINING WEST OF OR JUST CLIPPING THE WEST END OF THE FCST AREA BY 12Z SAT. PW VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE MUCH OF FRI/FRI NIGHT. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN THE 3.5 TO 4+ KM RANGE BY LATER FRI/FRI NIGHT. THRU THIS...OVERALL LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING REMAINS ON THE WEAK SIDE FRI/FRI NIGHT. WITH SOME CONSISTENCY FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRI ALONG WITH MUCAPE IN THE 1K- 2K J/KG RANGE FRI AFTERNOON...DID CONTINUE WITH SOME 20-40 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FRI. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES LATE FRI/FRI EVENING WITH CAPE DECREASING FRI NIGHT. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PASSES... LITTLE IF ANY FORCING/LIFT SIGNAL FOR FRI NIGHT AND ONLY CARRIED SOME 20-30 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MAINLY IN THE EVENING. SHEAR REMAINS WEAK WITH MINIMAL SEVERE RISK WITH ANY TSRA THRU FRI NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS TONIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 MAIN CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY THRU SUN NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THRU THE PERIOD...HEAVY RAIN CHANCES SAT NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...SEVERE POTENTIAL LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT. THE SAT THRU SUN NIGHT PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE OF THIS FCST CYCLE. 26.12Z MODELS OFFER A GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH TO LIFT TO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SAT THEN ACROSS THE ACROSS MN/IA INTO WI SAT NIGHT. THE TROUGH/SHORTWAVE REMAINS QUITE PROGRESSIVE SUNDAY AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS ENERGY LOWERS HGTS/DEEPENS THE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AGAIN SUN NIGHT. GIVEN THE DECENT CONSENSUS AND RATHER GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE SAT THRU SUN NIGHT PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE. CAPE REBUILDS QUICKLY OVER THE AREA SAT. WITH APPROACH OF THE SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...INCREASING LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH/AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES INCREASE THRU SAT...INTO THE 40-70 PERCENT RANGE /HIGHEST WEST/ FOR THE AFTERNOON. NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT...INTO THE AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTH AROUND 4KM AND MUCAPES IN THE 1K-2K J/KG RANGE. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. CONTINUED/RAISED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 70-80 PERCENT RANGE SAT NIGHT. 0-3KM SHEAR INCREASE FOR SAT NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND INCREASED WIND THREAT FROM THE COMPLEX OF STORMS. SAT NIGHT SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY SUN MORNING. LULL FOR A TIME SUN FOR THE LATE MORNING/ EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE AREA BETWEEN ROUNDS OF FORCING/LIFT. MODEL SIGNAL IS FOR INCREASING SFC-700MB FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT SFC- MID LEVEL TROUGH TO QUICKLY PULL THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SAT QUICKLY BACK NORTHWARD INTO MN/IA/WI AHEAD OF IT. WINDS ALOFT INCREASE OVER THE AREA FOR LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES INTO THE 35-50KT RANGE FOR LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/ TSRA EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO/ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS THE SFC- 700MB FRONT/TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD/INTO THE AREA...UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. WITH THE INCREASED 0-6KM SHEAR...A FEW OF THE TSRA SUN NIGHT COULD BE SEVERE WITH MORE THAN THE THREAT OF ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. RAISED RAIN CHANCES FOR SUN NIGHT INTO THE 55-75 PERCENT RANGE FOR NOW. GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER UNCERTAINTIES MUCH OF THE SAT THRU SUN NIGHT PERIOD STAYED NEAR THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS. FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/... MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES YET MONDAY...COOLER TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 26.00Z/26.12Z SHOW GOOD AND IMPROVING AGREEMENT MON/TUE AS TROUGHING SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. GENERAL SIGNAL FOR WED/THU IS FOR THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NOAM TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. HOWEVER MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH SECONDARY NORTHWEST TROUGHING DROPS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF OFFERS SOME OF THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE WED/THU PERIOD. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD IS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE. MUCH OF THE MON-THU PERIOD IS TRENDING TO BE A DRIER/COOLER PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TUE-THU. SFC TROUGH/FRONT WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST MON. GIVEN THE UNSTABLE/VERY MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH...SHRA/TSRA...CAPABLE OF MORE HEAVY RAINS...EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ACROSS THE FCST AREA. MONDAY HAS ALREADY BEEN SPLIT FOR HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE MORNING AND THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD. COOLER...DRIER AIRMASS... WITH A 10F TO 15F DEW POINT DROP TO FOLLOW INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATER MON THRU THU. 700MB TEMPS DROP INTO THE +1C TO +5C RANGE BY 12Z TUE AS THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES. 700MB TEMPS THEN REMAIN IN THAT RANGE THRU THU. RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE UNDER THIS COLDER AIRMASS ALLOWS FOR SOME WEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY TUE AND A SMALL MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA CHANCE. ECMWF WOULD SEND A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COOLER MID LEVEL AIR INTO MN/WI FOR WED...WITH SOME WEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER BOTH ECMWF/GFS HAVE A CAN SFC HIGH BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION WED AND THU... WITH AN EVEN DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS. WILL LEAVE A SMALL -SHRA CHANCE FOR MAINLY WED AFTERNOON THEN DRY THU AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE REGION. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON-THU LOOK WELL TRENDED FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LIFTING AT KLSE...WITH SOME THINNING SPOTS INDICATED IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE BREAK OUT INTO SCT- VFR SKIES COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IT SHOULD STILL COME. SHRA/TS ONGOING OVER SOUTHERN IA...ALONG AND NORTH OF A SFC BOUNDARY AND IN A REGION OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY. MESO MODELS TAKE THIS ACTIVITY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...BUT DIMINISHES IT THIS EVENING AS IT WORKS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA - MOVING IT OUT OF THE BETTER FORCING AND INSTABILITY. GOING TO COVER THIS WITH -SHRA/VCSH AND SOME CB FOR NOW. THINK KRST WOULD HAVE THE BETTER SHOT FOR A SMALL PERIOD WITH -TSRA...CENTERED NEAR THE 00Z HOUR. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD A TEMPO GROUP JUST YET. EXPECTING A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY BY MID EVENING. MORE SHRA/TS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...WITH THE NAM/GFS/RAP SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL RELATED TO WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND A WEST-EAST BOUNDARY. ENOUGH CONSENSUS THAT WILL ADD -SHRA TO THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS LOOK VFR GENERALLY...ALTHOUGH SOME MVFR CAN/T BE RULED OUT. WILL STAY OPTIMISTIC AT THIS TIME. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014 RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK HAS PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM THE TWIN CITIES MN TO DUBUQUE IA...WITH MODERATE FLOODING NOW EXPECTED AT WINONA MN. SHRA/TSRA ARE IN THE FCST TONIGHT THROUGH SAT...BUT THESE ARE TRENDING TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA AND HEAVIER RAINFALL RETURNS FOR SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON AS A FEED OF VERY MOIST AND WARM AIR INCREASES INTO THE REGION... AHEAD OF A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SFC FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE...WITH A LITTLE AS 2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A 3 HR PERIOD CAPABLE OF CAUSING PROBLEMS. WILL ISSUE AN ESF FOR THE WEEKEND TO RAISE AWARENESS OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINS AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING/ FLASH FLOODING THREATS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RRS LONG TERM....RRS AVIATION.....RIECK HYDROLOGY....RRS  FXUS63 KARX 300920 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 420 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014 AT 4 AM...THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...WHICH BROUGHT THE HEAVY RAIN TO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR FENNIMORE WISCONSIN...EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TO WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF AN 850 MB LOW ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND AND NORTHWEST IOWA. SOME ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG ALONG A 900 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENETIC BAND ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING. FOR THIS MORNING...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG A 900 TO 700 MB BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE MINNESOTA AND IOWA BORDER. THIS IS STRENGTHENING WILL LIKELY KEEP THE PRECIPITATION GOING DESPITE THE WEAKENING THAT IS TAKING PLACE IN THE 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. DEEP MOISTURE GRADUALLY POOLS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE MORNING. ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS CLIMB FROM 3 TO 3.5 KM AT 30.12Z TO AROUND 4 KM AT 30.18Z. DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB FROM AROUND 1.5 INCHES TO 2.0 INCHES IN THIS SAME AREA. AS A RESULT...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. IN ADDITION...MEAN LAYER CAPES WILL REMAIN FROM 1500 TO 3500 J/KG. WHILE TYPICALLY THIS INSTABILITY WOULD WANE FROM THE CONVECTION... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT THIS INSTABILITY FROM AREAS THAT ARE CAPPED TO OUR SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED SUPERCELLS. WITH A MAJORITY OF THIS SHEAR LOCATED BELOW 3 KM...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE SUPERCELLS TO EVOLVED INTO LINES. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC AND MESO MODELS SUGGEST THAT CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESPONSE TO THE 850 MB LOW AND STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING TOGETHER ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE LIKELY TOO STRONG WITH THEIR CYCLOGENESIS AND THIS GREATLY AFFECTS THEIR WIND FIELDS. AS RESULT...LOOKED MORE AT THE WIND FIELDS IN THE MESO MODELS. EVEN THESE MODELS...SHOW A RAPID STRENGTHENING IN THE 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. THIS CAUSES THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 2.25 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS TO INCREASE INTO THE 4 TO 4.5 INCH RANGE. WITH UPWARD FORCING BEING ENHANCED FURTHER AS THE AREA ENTERS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 250 MB...EXPECT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE. AS WITH THIS MORNING...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN THE EXCESS OF 45 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG CAP TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO BRING THIS 2500 TO 3500 J/KG ML CAPES INTO THE AREA WILL PROVIDE AMPLE INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS GOING DESPITE THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASING WINDS FIELDS DUE TO THE CYCLOGENESIS...THE 0-1 KM HELICITY AND BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH LCL HEIGHTS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TORNADOES ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN DURING THE MID AND LATTER PARTS OF THE AFTERNOON. THE DUBUQUE RAP HODOGRAPH FOR 29.22Z IS VERY IMPRESSIVE. FOR THIS EVENING...THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL COME QUICKLY TO AN END AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014 ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. UNLIKE TODAY...THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS INSTABILITY /500 TO 1000 J/KG SURFACE CAPES/ AND LESS 0-6 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 35 KNOTS. AS A RESULT...JUST EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH ML CAPES GENERALLY LESS 500 J/KG...MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE THIS PERIOD DRY. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS THE ECMWF WHICH GENERATES A FEW SHOWERS. SINCE IT IS SUMMER AND THE ECMWF TYPICALLY DOES BETTER IN THIS TIME PERIOD...JUST KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING. FROM THE FOURTH OF JULY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THEIR TIMING AND LOCATION OF WAVES...SO JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014 SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS THAT PASSED THROUGH THE TAF SITES. ALTHOUGH A 5 KT OR SO SOUTHERLY BREEZE EXISTS...MVFR/IFR BR HAS FORMED AT RST. WITH THE BREEZE STAYING ABOUT THE SAME THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING...HAVE MVFR/IFR BR AND LIFR CEILINGS AT RST WITH MVFR BR AND POSSIBILITY OF AN LIFR CEILING AT LSE. THIS FOG AND LOW CEILING POTENTIAL WILL QUICKLY END AFTER SUNRISE. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEST WHERE A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH THROUGH IOWA IN THE MORNING SHOULD HELP SPARK MORE SHOWERS. THESE WILL IMPACT RST AND LSE STARTING AT 14-15Z AND LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME THUNDER...BUT ANTICIPATING THAT TO BE ISOLATED AND THUS NO TS OR VCTS MENTION. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL EXIST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE. A PERIOD FROM 18-23Z FOR THE TAF SITES OF VCTS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY REFLECTS THIS...AND LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A SHORTER PERIOD FOR TSRA...ALONG WITH LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH WINDS SHIFTING WESTERLY IN ITS WAKE. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014 WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2 TO 2.25 INCHES...SATURATED SOILS...AND ALREADY HIGH RIVERS AND STREAM ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAIN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ054-055-061. MN...NONE. IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM...BOYNE AVIATION...AJ HYDROLOGY...BOYNE  FXUS63 KARX 022001 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 301 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014 COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO AROUND 50 ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL SEE SOME PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. WHILE THIS IS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED WITH THE SHORT NIGHTS...THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME WEAK FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 3 KFT. THE GFS SHOWS WINDS STAYING UP THROUGH THIS LAYER AND DOES NOT SATURATE AT THE SURFACE. THE SREF MEAN FORECAST SOUNDINGS COME VERY CLOSE TO SATURATING. ANY PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF SURFACE HEATING. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A PRETTY QUIET DAY ACROSS THE REGION. KEEPING AN EYE ON A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH BASED FLAT CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014 HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. AGAIN WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL. THE HIGH THEN STARTS TO SLIDE EAST ON FRIDAY AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE WEATHER IS LOOKING RATHER PLEASANT FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS SO WE SHOULD SEE GOOD WEATHER FOR THE FIRE WORKS DISPLAYS FRIDAY EVENING. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECWMF/CANADIAN/NAM80 ARE ALL SPLITTING PRECIPITATION AROUND THE FORECAST AREA AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA/LAKE SUPERIOR AND ANOTHER WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA. THE GFS IS THE ONLY GUIDANCE THATS GENERATING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATER IN THE DAY. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE THE SHEAR ISN/T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 45 KTS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. IN ADDITION...WARM CLOUD DEPTH CLIMBS INTO THE 3.5 TO 4.0 KM RANGE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 1.5 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE. THE STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND MAY ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL AND MAYBE DAMAGING WINDS. SOME DETAILS TO WORK OUT FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND BUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING IS LOOKING LIKE THE MOST IMPACTFUL PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON. ALSO...SUNDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM AND MUGGY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW THEN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION FOR NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014 VISIBLE SATELLITE LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE CLOUD DECK OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO WORK STEADILY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. CEILINGS REMAIN MVFR FOR THE MOST PART BUT ARE STARTING TO INCREASE TO VFR. BASED ON TIMING AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FROM THE 02.15Z RAP AND 02.12Z NAM...EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO START MOVING PAST KRST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT HANG ON AT KLSE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE NAM SUGGESTS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT KLSE AS IT SATURATES THE SURFACE. THE RAP ONLY GOES OUT TO ABOUT 03.08Z RIGHT NOW BUT SHOWS A LARGE SURFACE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD AND THE 02.06Z GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SATURATE OVERNIGHT. THE 02.09Z SREF MEAN SOUNDING ALSO DOES NOT SATURATE BUT DOES COME WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF DOING SO. THE NAM CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE TOO MOIST WITH THE LOW LEVELS SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG OVERNIGHT. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014 NOT MUCH THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LA CROSSE NORTH TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL. MEANWHILE THE FLOOD CREST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH OF LA CROSSE. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2014 HERE ARE THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT. AUSTIN MN - 43 IN 1940 CHARLES CITY IA - 45 IN 1967 DECORAH IA - 41 IN 1924 LA CROSSE WI - 49 IN 1968 MEDFORD WI - 37 IN 1927 PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI - 45 IN 1968 RICHLAND CENTER WI - 43 IN 1995 ROCHESTER MN - 44 IN 1917 SPARTA WI - 40 IN 1968 WINONA MN - 49 IN 1995 && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION...04 HYDROLOGY...BOYNE CLIMATE...BOYNE  FXUS63 KARX 032036 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 336 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014 A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON GENERATING SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THESE CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE REGION FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. WE HAVE MIXED OUT NICELY THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 8KFT...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VALLEY FOG. WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. PLAN ON MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AN OUTSTANDING DAY FOR FOURTH OF JULY ACTIVITIES. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014 THE HIGH STARTS TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM NORTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA. FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FALLING APART AS THEY MOVE INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. HAVE FOCUSED THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY MORNING...THEN INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BUT MUCH OF THE AREA MAY ACTUALLY BE CAPPED AS A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MOVES OVER THE AREA. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A MOIST AND HUMID AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE UNCOMFORTABLE. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE NAM STRUGGLES TO DEVELOP THIS ACTIVITY SOUTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR BUT THE ECWMF AND GFS ARE BOTH SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING. AFTERNOON SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AROUND 3000 J/KG. NOT BUYING INTO THE VERY HIGH DEWPOINTS THE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING...ESPECIALLY THE NAM. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM KLSE IS SHOWING A DEWPOINT OF 77 DEGREES AT 21Z SUNDAY AND THIS SEEMS OVERDONE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S ARE PLAUSIBLE. LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ECWMF SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KTS...WITH THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. MOST OF THE SHEAR IS IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER SO THINKING LINEAR STRUCTURES WOULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SUGGESTIONS OFF OF THE NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPHS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER WISCONSIN...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL IF THE STORMS WOULD DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME THINKING THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4.0 KM WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORMS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO LIMIT FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014 RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY WHICH WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AND THEN SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH. THE 03.12Z NAM IS AGAIN SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT AT KLSE. THE LAYER OF LIGHTS WINDS IS DEEPER THAN THIS MORNING WHEN THE FOG DID FORM. WILL INCLUDE A BCFG TO SHOW THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2014 NOT MUCH THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN UNTIL LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO EXPECT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LA CROSSE NORTH TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL. MEANWHILE THE FLOOD CREST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTH OF LA CROSSE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION...04 HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP  FXUS63 KARX 110755 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 255 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014 MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY. CURRENTLY AS OF 08Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S....A WEAK RIDGE OVER MICHIGAN... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING MN WITH THE CORE NEAR DULUTH...A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING NEBRASKA...AND A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. DPVA AHEAD OF THE MN SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT SEEN BY STRONGER 850MB WINDS ON RADARS FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MN HAS SUPPORTED SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF MINNEAPOLIS. THE NEBRASKA SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER NOSE OF 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS SUPPORTED OTHER SHORTWAVES AND STORMS FROM NEBRASKA INTO SIOUX FALLS AREA. THE FORECAST AREA MEANWHILE HAS ONLY SEEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WEST OF THE MS RIVER STEMMING FROM ACCAS CLOUDS ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ZONE. THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION HAS CERTAINLY BECOME WARMER AND MORE MOIST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. 850MB TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED TO 12-15C ACCORDING TO 00Z SOUNDINGS WITH 20-25C READINGS IN THE DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE UP TO 1-1.5 INCHES WITH A 2 INCH MAXIMA NEAR SIOUX FALLS PER RAP AND GOES DERIVED. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS RADICALLY DRIER THAN WHAT IT LOOKED LIKE 24 HOURS AGO. MUCH OF THIS IS A FUNCTION OF THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEING INCORRECT. INSTEAD OF THE NOSE COMING RIGHT AT THE FORECAST AREA...IT\S IN NORTHERN MN AND NEAR SIOUX FALLS. ADDITIONALLY...THE SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS MN IS MOVING FASTER THAN EARLIER PROJECTIONS. RE-ANALYZING TODAY\S FORECAST. IT APPEARS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TAKING PLACE NORTH OF MINNEAPOLIS WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST THIS MORNING WITH THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...PERHAPS CLIPPING TAYLOR COUNTY. TO THE WEST...REGARDING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS CROSSING NEBRASKA AND SIOUX FALLS...THESE MAY MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST IOWA LATE IN THE MORNING PER HRRR AND 11.00Z GFS PROGS. HOWEVER... THE 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSE SUPPORTING THEM IS PROGGED TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN IN ALL MODELS...SO ITS POSSIBLE THEY DIE BEFORE REACHING NORTHEAST IOWA. THIS LEAVES REALLY THE ONLY OTHER THREAT OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MORNING BEING THIS ACCAS WHICH COULD SHOWER HERE AND THERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER ZONE OVER SIOUX FALLS AREA IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE AREA...THERE\S NO FORCING TO DO ANYTHING WITH THAT MOISTURE. SURFACE BOUNDARY WISE...A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS MN WHILE A WARM FRONT IS ACROSS NEBRASKA...BOTH BEING WEST OF THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...500MB HEIGHTS ARE RISING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE. 11.00Z NAM/GFS/REGIONAL CANADIAN ARE ALL DRY AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST EVEN MORE IN THAT DIRECTION. ONLY THE 11.00Z HIRES ARW HAS SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION SO KEPT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE IN CASE. WITH A DRIER FORECAST AND 850MB TEMPS BETWEEN 14-16C TODAY...HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. PLENTY OF MID CLOUD WILL HAMPER HIGHS FROM REACHING FULL POTENTIAL...THOUGH. FOR TONIGHT...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE I-80 CORRIDOR ACROSS NEBRASKA AND IOWA. THE CAUSE FOR THE INCREASE IS TIED TO A FAIRLY STRONG MONSOONAL SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER LAS VEGAS...ROTATING UP AROUND THE CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY 12Z SATURDAY. GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS IN PLACE...IT SEEMS ALL BUT CERTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE ON THE NOSE OF THAT 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ZONE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD WORK INTO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AFTER MIDNIGHT...THOUGH BELIEVE THE GREATER FOCUS FOR THEM WILL OCCUR SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA PRIOR TO 12Z SATURDAY. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT CROSSING TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES FROM THE COLD FRONT OVER MN TRACKING THROUGH THERE. WITH A HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND MID CLOUD SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ANTICIPATING A WARM NIGHT. IN FACT...HIGHER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING IN COULD RESULT IN SOME FOG. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014 MAIN LONG TERM CONCERNS ARE ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SATURDAY\S FOCUS IS ENTIRELY ON THE CURRENT MONSOONAL SHORTWAVE NEAR LAS VEGAS. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THIS SHORTWAVE THROUGH OUR AREA AT ABOUT THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. 0-6KM...0-3KM AND 0-1KM SHEAR VALUES ALL REALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE... TOPPING OUT AT 21Z AROUND 60 KTS...45 KT AND 20-25 KT RESPECTIVELY. THIS IS PLENTY FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION. THE DEEPER SHEAR IS ALSO NICELY CYCLONICALLY CURVED. MEANWHILE...THE ATMOSPHERE IS JUICED UP PRECIPITABLE WATER WISE WITH VALUES OF 2 INCHES GETTING ADVECTED INTO THE AREA. ALSO GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS EXISTS FOR 750- 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE TO BUILD UP SOUTH OF I-90...LIMITED BY PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER...WITH EVEN HIGHER VALUES BUILDING UP IN A CAPPED AIRMASS NEAR I-80. THUS...SEE SOME CHANCE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAIL THREAT IS LIMITED BY THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 4 KM. THESE PARAMETERS INCREASE THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERN...HOWEVER...THE STRONG SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE PROGRESSIVE CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...THE RECENT DRY PERIOD WILL ALLOW SOILS TO ABSORB MORE WATER. THE STRONG SHEAR DEFINITELY MAKES DAMAGING WINDS A CONCERN. CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO EITHER GIVEN THE 0-1KM SHEAR AND A WARM FRONT LIKELY TO SIT NEAR/SOUTH OF US-20. REALLY THE ONLY ISSUE WITH SATURDAY AMONGST THE MODELS IS THE PLACEMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE 11.00Z NAM/REGIONAL CANADIAN ARE ALONG/NORTH OF I-90...WHICH BOTH HAVE HAD A NORTHWARD BIAS TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE EVENTS THIS YEAR. PREFER THE FARTHER SOUTH 11.00Z GFS/ECMWF/HIRES ARW. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 03Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE...FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OF NEARLY 1 INCH BY 12Z SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA IS PROGGED TO BEGIN ITS DESCENT INTO OUR REGION. A COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...AGAIN AT THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. 0-6KM SHEAR IS RUNNING 40-50 KT WITH 0-3KM AT 25-35KT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE SEVERELY LACKING RESULTING FROM THE SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SATURDAY NIGHT. 11.00Z GFS HAS THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AT 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE...BUT THINK ITS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S POOLING AROUND THE BOUNDARY ARE TOO HIGH. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED SOME CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE FRONT...BUT BELIEVE THE DRIER 11.00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN/NAM WILL COME TRUE. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR SINKS SOUTH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL LOOK LIKE A TASTE OF FALL AS A SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR COMES INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW WITHIN THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN WI MONDAY EVENING. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT...DAYTIME HEATING AND DPVA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD PROMOTE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION MONDAY. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER NORTHERN WI. HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND FURTHER INCREASES MAY BE NECESSARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS WELL WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT STILL AROUND. 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO 4-6C ON MONDAY ON A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND AND HOLD THERE THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE ARE 2-2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL SUGGESTING RECORDS ARE POSSIBLE. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. THE WEATHER QUIETS DOWN THEN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY EJECTS OUT. PLENTIFUL DRY CANADIAN AIR PLUNGES SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.... RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM EACH DAY AS THE SUN HELPS MODIFY THE COLD AIR. WE SHOULD BE BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014 REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LITTLE IF ANYTHING IS HITTING THE GROUND AND WHAT IS...IS NOTHING MORE THAN SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE 11.02Z HRRR SHOWS THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH JUST THE SPRINKLES COMING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A VCSH FOR THIS ACTIVITY WITH VFR CEILINGS. MORE CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WAVE IS SHOWN BY THE 11.00Z NAM TO SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS IOWA BUT THE ACTIVITY MAY DISSIPATE AS IT APPROACHES. BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM SHOW THIS HAPPENING AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF THE CAPE AXIS. WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO MISS THE AREA...WILL DROP THE VCSH BY MID MORNING WHEN THE GRADIENT BECOMES TIGHT ENOUGH AND THE MIXING GETS GOING TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. LOOK FOR THESE GUSTS TO DIMINISH EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS AND CUTS OFF THE MIXING. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014 RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY ARE 65 AT ROCHESTER AND 66 AT LA CROSSE. THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD BREAK THE RECORD LOWEST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 15TH. THE OLD RECORDS ARE 68 AT LA CROSSE SET BACK IN 1962 AND 67 AT ROCHESTER ALSO SET BACK IN 1962. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...04 CLIMATE...AJ  FXUS63 KARX 122009 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THESE AREAS. THE MAIN CONCERN IS SHIFTING MORE TOWARD A HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FIRE STORMS OVER THESE AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THEY PUSH THIS ACTIVITY TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOCUSED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. ALSO...IF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPS THERE COULD EVEN BE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE AN ISOLATED TORNADO. HOWEVER...0-1 KM SHEAR IS VERY WEAK AND WE WOULD HAVE TO SEE THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT MAKE IT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH TO HAVE TORNADO POTENTIAL. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...WITH PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.9 AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 3.5 TO 4.0 KM ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THERE IS A SECONDARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AREA TO THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR THEN STRETCHING BACK TO THE WEST. THIS BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHEAST VERY SLOWLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON CONVECTION NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. IF IT STALLS THERE COULD ENOUGH LOCALIZED VORTICITY TO SEE A NON SUPERCELL TORNADO OR TWO IF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION OCCURS. ALSO...STORMS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN FAIRLY SLOW MOVING AND WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF AND END THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS THE REGION.MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING THEN WE SHOULD SEE A DECREASING CLOUD TREND LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. PLAN ON OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A WEAK FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW BUT WILL MOSTLY GENERATE SOME CUMULUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE COULD BUILD JUST ENOUGH CAPE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SO HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014 A DEEP TROUGH DIVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BRINING UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE REGION. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 4 C MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. WITH THE SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER CHILLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO POSSIBLY AROUND 60 OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ELSEWHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 60S. CANNOT RULE OUT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE HIGHS COULD APPROACH 70. MUCH OF THE AREAS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEEING RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR FOR RECORD LOWEST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE TROUGH PULLS EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND WE COULD SEE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2014 UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/FRONTOGENETIC LIFT ALL HAVING A PART IN PERSISTENT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF MN LATE THIS MORNING. THE -SHRA WAS PUSHING EAST...MOSTLY OUT OF MID LEVEL/VFR CLOUDS. EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME THREAT FOR -TSRA...BUT THE BEST INSTABILITY HOLDS WELL SOUTH. FEEL THE CHANCES ARE MORE OF THE ISOLD/SCT VARIETY...AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. IF RADAR/MESO MODEL TRENDS START TO FAVOR KRST/KLSE BEING IMPACTED BY A TS...WITH UPDATE FORECAST TO REFLECT. WILL ALSO KEEP CIGS VFR FOR NOW...WITH THE CAVEAT OF MVFR CONDITIONS IF THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY. THE 5SM -SHRA/BR SEEMS LIKELY FOR KRST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE PCPN CHANCES TO CLEAR EAST NEAR 00Z THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING TREND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COULD HAVE SOME MVFR BR...AND WILL SOME IN FOR KRST. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014 A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014 RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FOR LA CROSSE... MONDAY....FORECAST HIGH 69. RECORD 65 IN 1994 TUESDAY...FORECAST HIGH 68. RECORD 68 IN 1962 FOR ROCHESTER... MONDAY....FORECAST HIGH 64. RECORD 64 IN 1952 TUESDAY...FORECAST HIGH 67. RECORD 67 IN 1962 && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION.....RIECK HYDROLOGY...WETENKAMP CLIMATE...WETENKAMP  FXUS63 KARX 161924 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 222 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014 AREAS OF FOG WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT...AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. BIG PICTURE/NORTH AMERICAN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE DEEP TROUGH THAT GAVE THE AREA COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS NOW STARTING TO FILL AND MOVING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES REGION. STILL SOME COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR ALOFT AND THIS WAS PRODUCING STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EXTENSIVE CUMULUS BUILD-UP ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE... TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WERE STILL ON THE COOLER THAN NORMAL SIDE...IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUARE OVERHEAD TONIGHT...SETTING UP IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S IN THE SAND/CRANBERRY COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S ELSEWHERE. COOLING WILL ALSO LEAD TO FOG FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. NAM AND HRW/NMM WRF MODELS AT KLSE SHOWING LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWEST 650MB/11KFT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME RATHER DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE MISSISSIPPI/WISCONSIN RIVER CHANNELS AS WELL AS MAJOR TRIBUTARIES SUCH AS THE ROOT/KICKAPOO/BLACK RIVERS. LOOK FOR THE FOG TO LIFT/BURN OFF AROUND 9 AM. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. NAM AND HRW/NMM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME VIGOROUS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH CLOUD DEPTH IN THE 5-7KFT RANGE. THERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG CAP AROUND 700MB TO HOLD THE LID ON FURTHER CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS...BUT A COUPLE SOUNDINGS SHOWING A FEW UPDRAFTS FLIRTING WITH THE CAP. FOR NOW...AND AFTER SURROUNDING OFFICE COLLABORATION..WILL KEEP THINGS DRY BUT WARRANTS KEEPING AN EYE ON FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO. OTHERWISE...PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014 LOOK FOR ANOTHER MAINLY RIVER VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH READINGS DIPPING INTO THE 50S. WILL SEE ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DAY OF ABUNDANT CUMULUS. WENT DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO AGAIN WATCH FOR A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO GIVEN STEEP LOWER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CUMULUS DEPTH AROUND 7KFT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS SATURDAY...CONTINUING INTO THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...AND INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL DEFLECT ANY RAIN CHANCES NORTH AND WEST OF US WHILE WE GO INTO A WARMING TREND. LOOK FOR HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY MONDAY..OR RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. LATEST GFS/ECMWF DIFFER A BIT WITH PATTERN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA BY TUESDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE GFS NOT AS DEFINED/DEVELOPED WITH THIS LOW...SHOWING A WEAK TROUGH OF SORTS PASSING OVER THE RIDGE MORE IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS BLEND OF THE TWO FOR NOW WHICH YIELDS A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2014 ANOTHER 24 HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VALLEY FOG AT NIGHT AND DIURNAL CUMULUS DURING THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER REGION INTO THURSDAY. STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR DIURNAL CUMULUS BUT THAT WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE CLEARING SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF VALLEY FOG. UNSURE ON EXTENT OF FOG AT KLSE BUT EXPECT IT WITHIN CHANNEL AND CERTAINLY IN TRIBUTARIES. ON THURSDAY...SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN WEAK FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD ENHANCE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY LATE MORNING...PERHAPS EVEN CREATE CEILINGS AT TIMES. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM....DAS AVIATION...SHEA  FXUS63 KARX 280932 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015 MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...DZ/FZDZ CHANCES TONIGHT...CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. 06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC OBS AND FOG- PRODUCT IMAGERY SHOW AN IFR/MVFR STRATUS DECK ACROSS MUCH OF WI/MN AND EASTERN IA. LATEST AVAILABLE PILOT REPORTS INDICATED THIS CLOUD DECK ABOUT 1000 FT THICK. THIS MOISTURE/CLOUDS TRAPPED UNDER A STRONG AND STRENGTHENING INVERSION NEAR 900MB. THE CLOUD BLANKET AND INCREASING SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WINDS HOLDING TEMPS STEADY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. INITIALIZATIONS OF 28.00Z MODELS GENERALLY LOOK QUITE GOOD. SHORTWAVE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CARVES OUT TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL/ NORTHERN PLAINS. THE 2 PIECES OF ENERGY NEARLY PHASE TONIGHT AS THEY AND DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT FAVORS A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER 26.00Z/27.00Z RUNS. SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD BUT THE FCST HINGES ON LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH THE MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE STRATUS DECK WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PROBLEMATIC TODAY FOR HIGH TEMPS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST SFC-850MB GRADIENT FLOW INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE PLAINS LOW MOVE TO NEAR KFSD/KOMA THIS AFTERNOON. INVERSION OVER THE AREA REMAINS STRONG UNDER THE INCREASING 925-850MB WARM ADVECTION. BY THIS AFTERNOON... DEEPER/STRONGER LIFT ARRIVES...WITH AN INCREASE OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. ALL THIS POINTS TO THE LOWER STRATUS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH LITTLE IF ANY SUNSHINE. CIRRUS SHIELD AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVER THE AREA TODAY...SO EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM A LITTLE...BUT ONLY TO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA. SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE/SATURATION IN ROUGHLY THE SFC-800MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN. LOWER LEVEL LIFT/CONVERGENCE WITH THE SFC-850MB TROUGH AXIS...WITH DEEP LAYERED LIFT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVES AND MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW COLDEST TEMPS IN THE LOWER SATURATED PORTION OF THE COLUMN AROUND -5C...INDICATING NO ICE IN THE CLOUD DEPTH. PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT REMAIN MAINLY -DZ/ -FZDZ. CONFINED THE HIGHEST CHANCES BETWEEN 03Z-09Z WHEN THE SFC- 850MB TROUGH AXIS AND ITS CONVERGENCE SLIDES ACROSS THE FCST AREA. MORE CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG THE MODELS FOR LIGHT PRECIP PRODUCTION REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA...WITH HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES THERE TONIGHT. GREATER THREAT OF MINOR ICING IS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA WERE TEMPS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE MORE IN THE LOWER 30S AND ROAD TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO OR BELOW FREEZING. MAY YET NEED A FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA. WILL LET DAY CREW HAVE ANOTHER CYCLE OF MODELS TO LOOK AT AND SEE WHAT SFC TEMPS DO TODAY TO MAKE THE CALL ON THAT. WITH THICKER LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT...THE DZ/FZDZ CHANCES AND SOME PATCHY FOG...NEARLY STEADY TEMPS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING... THEN FALLING LATE AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES/LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION/INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. BY THIS TIME BULK OF THE DEEP LAYERED LIFT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND DZ/FZDZ CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS TODAY AND WARMER OF GUIDANCE LOWS TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 332 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015 MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT...LINGERING DZ/FZDZ CHANCES THU MORNING...CLOUD/TEMPERATURE TRENDS THRU THE PERIOD. 28.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SECOND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP QUICKLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU AFTERNOON/EVENING. GOOD BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR HGTS TO THEN RISE FRI/FRI NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE NEXT NORTHERN/ SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HEADED TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE THU THRU FRI NIGHT PERIOD IS GOOD THIS CYCLE. THIS PERIOD SHAPING UP TO BE A COOLER/DRY/QUIET PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT STRONGER SYSTEM TAKES AIM AT THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPER LAYERED SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THU MORNING. MAINLY LIMITED ANY LINGERING DZ/ FZDZ CHANCES TO THE 12-15Z PERIOD OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THU AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY PROVIDES THE AREA WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. APPEARS HIGHS THU WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH STEADY/SLOWING FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY UNDER THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION. STRONGER SUBSIDENCE/COLD ADVECTION AND CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU NIGHT/FRI MORNING...UNDER WHAT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THU NIGHT LOWS LOOKING TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL THAN THEY/VE BEEN DURING THE PAST 2 WEEKS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION RETURNS FRI AS THE SFC- 850MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. STRONGER OF THIS SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT...WITH LOWS LOOKING TO BE FRI EVENING THEN SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS CLOUDS START TO INCREASE AND SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASE A BIT. USED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT. FOR SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY.../DAYS 4 TO 7/... MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT/SUN...COLD TEMPERATURES MOM-TUE. 28.00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW IMPROVING AGREEMENT SAT/SUN FOR NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY PHASES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. TREND IS A BIT STRONGER/MORE PHASED WITH THE STREAMS/SHORTWAVES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY SUNDAY. GOOD BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY FOR THE TROUGH AXIS TO THEN MOVE ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT...LEAVING THE DOOR OPEN FOR NORTHWEST FLOW AND A STRONGER SHOT OF CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR TO DROP INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN SOME LOWER LEVEL DETAIL DIFFERENCES...FCST CONFIDENCE FOR SAT THRU TUE REMAINS AVERAGE THIS CYCLE. PHASING SHORTWAVES/DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS SAT/SUN SENDS INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. PW VALUES OF AROUND 1/2 INCH INDICATED IN THE INFLOW AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH/SFC LOW. THIS MOISTURE BEING PUSHED INTO A COLUMN WITH SFC-600MB TEMPS FAVORING A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND FAVORABLE LIFT/DIVERGENCE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AHEAD OF THE PLAINS TROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SHOWING COLUMN SATURATED FROM THE SFC TO 300MB OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA FOR BY LATER SAT NIGHT AND FOR SUN. DETAIL DIFFERENCES INCLUDE HOW MUCH AND QUICKLY PHASING ACTUALLY OCCURS AND HOW FAR NORTHWARD THE GREATER THE 925-700MB MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ENDS UP OCCURRING. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR A LONGER DURATION PERIOD OF SNOW FOR PARTS OR ALL OF THE FCST AREA FROM SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. SNOW CHANCES IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY LOOK GOOD FOR NOW...UNTIL THE DETAILS GET SORTED OUT. OVER WHAT WOULD BE FRESH SNOW COVER FOR MUCH/ALL OF THE AREA...NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH SENDS ANOTHER CAN/ARCTIC HIGH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUN NIGHT INTO TUE. 925MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE -15C TO -20C RANGE MON INTO MON NIGHT. TEMPS TO START NEXT WEEK CONTINUE TO TREND BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT THRU TUE LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015 IFR/MVFR CIGS ABOUND ALL ACROSS THE REGION...AND LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE STUCK UNDER AN INVERSION...WITH NO IMPETUS FOR DRYING/CLEARING UNTIL THU NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE/SINKING AIR IS SLATED TO MOVE IN. MEANWHILE...A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A SFC BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WED NIGHT/THU MORNING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH THERMODYNAMIC/FRONTOGENETIC LIFT TO PRODUCE FZDZ/DZ WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. THE BULK OF THE LOW LEVEL WARMING WILL LIKELY GO INTO DEEPENING THE SATURATION INITIALLY. MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST 03-09Z THU AS THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME FOR PCPN. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS MAKES -DZ MORE LIKELY AT KRST/KLSE...RATHER THAN -FZDZ. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RRS LONG TERM....RRS AVIATION.....RIECK  FXUS63 KARX 150248 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 948 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 WITH MASSIVE CLOUD AREA HEADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...HAVE JUST UPDATED TO INCLUDE MORE SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THINKING THIS COULD TURN INTO A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY /MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS/ AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THROUGH AROUND MID-DAY PROVIDING SOME LIFT TO ENHANCE CLOUD THICKNESS. ALSO...COOLED THE CENTRAL WI AREA DOWN FOR MINIMUM TEMPS TONIGHT...24F OR SO. BUT...THEY MAY SEE 20F DEPENDING ON INCOMING CLOUD TIMING. THOUGHTS FOR SUNDAY ARE THE SAME...WITH CLOUD COVER LIMITING THE WIND AND WARMTH POTENTIAL VIA SHALLOWER MIXING. STILL WILL BE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND WITH WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE...FIRE SPREAD WILL BE ENHANCED. BUT EXTREME CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY... CONTINUED WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM SOUTHWEST ONTARIO TO EASTERN NEB...BRINGING CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES TO MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST FLOW EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING PRODUCING SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS TODAY SOME 5F TO 12F COOLER THAN THOSE OF FRI BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID MARCH. INITIALIZATIONS OF 14.12Z MODELS LOOK GOOD...EXCEPT FOR GFS 1F-5F TOO HIGH WITH SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS FOR THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS TO BUILD EAST INTO MN/IA WI BY 12Z SUN THEN QUICKLY MOVE WELL EAST OF THE REGION BY 00Z MON. BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING IS LEFT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS SUN NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD FOR CONTINUED DRY/MILD WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM. FOR THE SHORT TERM...SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING THEN IS OVER LAKE MI BY 12Z SUN. THIS WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 12Z SUN. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIPPING EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE WEST SIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE NEXT TROUGH/ FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WINDS TO DECOUPLE TEMPS TO DROP RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. LOCATIONS ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER MAY STAY DECOUPLE THRU THE NIGHT WHILE SOUTH WINDS...AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS...INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WEST OF THE MS RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. GOOD SPREAD ON LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH STEADY/RISING TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN AREAS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE WINDS/MIXING RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIGHTEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH/FRONT SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA SUN MORNING WITH RELAXING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES SUN AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THRU SUN SENDS 925MB TEMPS INTO THE +12C TO +16C RANGE BY 00Z MON. SUNDAY HAS POTENTIAL TO BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE TEMPERED BY PLENTY OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION ON SUN. PLENTY OF 650-400MB MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN WV/IR IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS TODAY. THIS MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THRU THE FLOW PROVIDING SOME WEAK LIFT IN THAT LAYER. THESE CLOUDS PLAY INTO THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY AS WELL. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. THESE CLOUDS/HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME LIGHTER SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO KEEP SUN NIGHT LOWS ABOVE THE NORMAL MID MARCH HIGHS. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR MON THRU TUE NIGHT...SMALL -RA/SPRINKLE CHANCES WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...TEMPERATURES. 14.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR FALLING HGTS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA MON THRU TUE AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN CAN AND HGTS RISE OVER WESTERN CAN. IMPROVING CONSISTENCY ON SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE THRU THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGING NEAR THE US/CAN BORDER TUE NIGHT WITH SOME WEAK HGT RISES OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AHEAD OF IT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD FOR A COOL-DOWN STARTING MON NIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES MON AFTERNOON/EVENING REMAINS AVERAGE. THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MODELS CONVERGING ON A MON MORNING TIMING. STRONGER SFC-925MB COLD ADVECTION STILL PROGGED TO LAG THE FRONT BY 100-200 MILES...SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH A WARM START AND 925MB TEMPS STILL IN THE +10C TO +14C RANGE OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 18Z...MONDAY TO BE ONE MORE VERY WARM/MILD DAY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH FALLING TEMPS LATER IN THE DAY. BAND OF STRONGER 850- 700MB FN/QG CONVERGENCE...ALONG WITH SOME 700-500MB QG CONVERGENCE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 150KT 300MB JET MAX TO OUR NORTH STILL PROGGED TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT MON AFTERNOON/ EVENING. BIG QUESTION REMAINS WILL THE ROUND OF LIFT BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DRIER 925-700MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. NAM SAYS NO...GEM/GFS/ECMWF/14.15Z SREF MEAN SAY YES. GIVEN THE MODEL WAFFLING ON THIS AND ANY QPF WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT...LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO 15-25 PERCENT OR MENTION OF SPRINKLES MAINLY MON AFTERNOON EVENING AS THE STRONGER FN CONVERGENCE PASSES. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES MON NIGHT WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE -1C TO -5C RANGE BY 12Z TUE. MODELS DIFFER ON EVOLUTION OF 925MB TEMPS BY LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AS ECMWF FASTER/ WARMER WHILE GFS SLOWER/COLDER DRIFTING THE CENTER OF THE CAN HIGH/COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR MON THRU TUE NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...-RA/-SN CHANCE CENTERED ON THU NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD. 14.00Z/14.12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OFFER REASONABLE AGREEMENT WED ON RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN CAN INTO AK AND A SHORTWAVE TO BE COMING THRU THE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS. TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALREADY BY 00Z THU BUT THIS NOT UNEXPECTED. RIDGING TO REBUILD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CONUS WED NIGHT/THU AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. TREND BY LATE THU INTO FRI IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE WAVE/ENERGY INTO/ACROSS THE REGION. REASONABLE CONSISTENCY AMONG GFS/ECMWF FRI NIGHT/SAT FOR A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO/ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD THAT TEMPS IN THE DAY 4-7 PERIOD WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID MARCH. CONFIDENCE IN SHORTWAVE TIMING/DETAILS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAINS NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE. CAN HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION WED UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...FOR A DRY AND GENERALLY SUNNY DAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THU DEVELOPS ANOTHER TROUGH/FRONT/LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTH CENTRAL CAN. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH/FRONT SPREADS A ROUND OF WARM ADVECTION AND SOME MOISTURE INCREASE NORTHEASTWARD INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATER THU INTO FRI. ECMWF/CAN-GEM MORE ROBUST WITH THIS...WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO PASS AND A BIT MORE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE... AND PRODUCES WHAT WOULD BE THE FIRST MORE MEANINGFUL MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA CENTERED ON THU NIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH AND SMALL -RA/-SN CHANCE MAINLY THU AFTERNOON/NIGHT OKAY AT THIS POINT. MAY NEED A SMALL -RA/-SN CHANCE CENTERED ON FRI NIGHT AS NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS THRU WITH SOME 850- 700MB WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE/FN CONVERGENCE. MODELS DIFFER WITH EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT CAN HIGH/COLD ADVECTION INTO THE AREA SAT...IMPACTED BY SHORTWAVES RIPPLING IN FROM THE WEST. STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS HIGHS/LOWS FOR DAYS 4-7 UNTIL THE DETAIL DIFFERENCES SORT THEMSELVES OUT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH 40-50 KTS EXPECTED AT 5KFT BY NOON. SOME MARGINAL LLWS COULD OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE START TO INCREASE...AND THE STOUT INVERSION AT THE SURFACE HOLDS IN. DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME AS IT LOOKS LIKE SOME MIXING OCCURS TO ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE AT THE SURFACE...DIMINISHING THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 2KFT. && .FIRE WEATHER...LATE SUNDAY MORNING THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2015 DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY...WITH HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON RH/S TO DROP INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE DRIEST CONDITIONS WEST OF HWY 52 ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. SOUTH/ SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. DEPENDING ON HOW DEEPLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES...WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS LOOKS TO SPREAD CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUN. THIS HAS POTENTIAL TO TEMPER HIGHS...THE RESULTING DEPTH OF MIXING AND ULTIMATELY HOW LOW RH/S DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH ADDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXPECTED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATER SUN MORNING/SUN AFTERNOON. CONSIDERED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. GIVEN THE STRONG SIGNAL FOR THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE DISTRICTS SUNDAY...ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY ON EXPECTED RH/S AND HOW DEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX THAT DID NOT ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...BAUMGARDT SHORT TERM.....RRS LONG TERM......RRS AVIATION...BAUMGARDT FIRE WEATHER...RRS  FXUS63 KARX 090821 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT NOW AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IR SATELLITE SHOWING SCATTERED ALTOCUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO 850-700MB ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT ALONG THE US/MT/ND BORDER. SOME LIGHT FOG//3-5SM RANGE// WAS ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI WHERE THERE WERE SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WERE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL WI...AND IN THE UPPER 50S LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS/WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW/COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHES INTO CENTRAL MN BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. NAM PUSHES 925MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE 26-30C RANGE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH TRANSLATES TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND EVEN A FEW LOWER 90 READINGS IN THE MISSISSIPPI/WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEYS. WILL SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I-94 BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...BUT MAIN FORCING/RAIN CHANCES STAY NORTH OF THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SEEN THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS THIS FRONT PUSHES INTO IS FAIRLY DRY...SO BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE TIED TO BETTER MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE POOLING. NAM INDICATING 0-1KM MLCAPE IN THE 1000-1500J/KG RANGE NORTHEAST OF I-94 ALONG WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40KT. BUT DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ...HAVING DOUBTS ON COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THAT BEING SAID...THERE EXISTS A SLIGHT RISK OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WI BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD IN NATURE. LOOK LIKE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RAPIDLY DWINDLE WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER 06Z. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT/DRY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. ATTENTION THEN TURNS ON WHAT LOOKS TO BE A HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE/WARM FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. REMNANTS OF TS BLANCA PUSHES PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTO THE 1.8-2 INCH RANGE BY THURSDAY AS STRONG 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IMPINGES ON THE WARM FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. MODELS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT ON HEAVIER QPF SIGNAL FOCUSED OVER OUR AREA IN RESPONSE TO THIS FORCING. RIGHT NOW...IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD 1.5 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNT THROUGH THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD. EMBEDDED THUNDER AND DEEPER WARM CLOUD DEPTH WITH INCREASING TROPICAL AIR INFLUENCE COULD PUSH THESE TOTALS LOCALLY HIGHER. AS SUCH THERE IS CONCERN FOR SOME LOCALIZED RIVER FLOODING...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE RUNNING HIGHER FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND RAINS. WILL ISSUE A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ESF TO COVER THIS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MOIST/HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK IMPULSES RIPPLING THROUGH THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL YIELD PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2015 EXPECT DRY/VFR CONDITIONS AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 10.06Z. SOME MID- LEVEL CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO PERIODS OF PASSING CIRRUS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 MODELS ARE BECOMING VERY CONSISTENT WITH HEAVY RAIN SIGNAL FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE/WARM FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BLANCA WILL BE TAPPED FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH FORCING FROM THE LOW/WARM FRONT. WITH SOME RIVERS ALREADY SOMEWHAT ELEVATED DUE TO THIS PAST WEEKEND RAINS...WILL ISSUE A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK/ESF PRODUCT EXPRESSING CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 RECORD HIGH FOR JUNE 9 IN ROCHESTER IS 93 SET IN 1973. RECORD HIGH FOR JUNE 9 IN LA CROSSE IS 95 SET IN 1911. AS THE FORECAST SITS NOW...HIGHS AT BOTH LOCATIONS WILL FALL SHORT OF RECORD VALUES FOR JUNE 9TH. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM...DAS AVIATION...ROGERS CLIMATE...DAS  FXUS63 KARX 091956 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 256 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING... .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 CURRENTLY AS OF 20Z...WATER VAPOR LOOP AND RAP 500MB HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW FROM SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SHORTWAVES OF NOTE INCLUDE TWO OVER NORTHWEST WI AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO...SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE. THERE IS ALSO A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE NORTHWEST ONTARIO WAVE...EXTENDING INTERNATIONAL FALLS MN TO PIERRE SD. SO FAR THERE IS LIMITED CONVECTION ON THE FRONT. HOWEVER...PLENTY OF SUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND 925MB TEMPS WARMING TO NOW IN THE 23C NEAR I- 39 TO AROUND 27C NEAR I-35 PER ACARS SOUNDINGS HAS SUPPORTED TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S...WARMEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DEEP DRY AIRMASS IN THE 12Z MPX SOUNDING HAS ALLOWED DEWPOINTS TO MIX DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. THESE LOW DEWPOINTS ARE GREATLY REDUCING CAPE ALONG THE FRONT...AND COMBINED WITH THE SHORTWAVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST REDUCING DYNAMIC FORCING...IS WHY CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED ON THE FRONT. LASTLY...WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST...A MULTITUDE OF SHORTWAVES WERE PRESENT OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...UTAH AND ARIZONA...WHICH INCLUDES THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BLANCA. THESE ARE PROGGED TO TAKE AIM AT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THE 12Z TUSCON SOUNDING WAS 1.6 INCHES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DIVING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE NORTHWEST ONTARIO HEADS SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY IGNITE ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL MN WILL FALL APART AS IT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE MAIN DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM TRACKING ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY BEING CLOSER TO THE DYNAMICS...WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL GIVEN THE INVERTED-V SOUNDING ENVIRONMENT. KEPT SOME 15-30 PERCENT CHANCES IN FOR THE EVENING...HIGHEST NORTHWEST. AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS LOOK DRY AS SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...PLUS A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP CLOSE TO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS. PLENTY OF SUN LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY. 925MB TEMPS DEFINITELY COOLER TOMORROW...18-20C AT 18Z...BUT THESE SHOULD STILL SUPPORT HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S GIVEN A DRY AIRMASS...WARMEST SOUTH. THAT DRY AIRMASS REFLECTED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 0.75 INCHES SHOULD ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO MIX PRETTY WELL AGAIN. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A NUMBER OF FEATURES ARE COMING TOGETHER TO PRODUCE A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT THU AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WITH A SMALLER 100 MILE BAND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OUR GENERAL REGION BETWEEN WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 20. 1. DPVA FROM SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS. VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT EXISTS ON BRINGING THE COLLECTIVE OF SHORTWAVES IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH NEBRASKA AND KS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY. 2. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. NOT ONLY DO THE SHORTWAVES BRING THE DEEPER PACIFIC MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BLANCA...FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS TO PROPEL GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE NORTHWARD. AS SUCH...OUR PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBS DRAMATICALLY...REACHING 1.5 - 2 INCHES BY 00Z FRIDAY...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE OF IA. THIS HIGH LEVEL OF PRECIPITABLE WATER...OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...DOES NOT LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AFTER 18Z FRI. 3. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION FROM AN 80-100 KT JET STREAK AT 200MB HOVERING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 4. IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 700MB ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVES...ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACK. 5. ADVECTION OF CAPE...ALBEIT LESS THAN 500 J/KG...INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTOGENETICAL CIRCULATION 6. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS UP AROUND 4000 METERS...WITH THE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS CENTERED IN THE WARM CLOUD. A VARIETY OF MODEL QPFS FROM THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EASILY LIKELY...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THAT SMALLER BAND. WHERE THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FALLS...FLOODING OF RIVERS IS LIKELY...ALONG WITH URBAN AND POSSIBLY AREAL FLOODING. HOWEVER...THAT LOCATION IS VERY HARD TO PIN DOWN WITH THE 09.00Z CIPS ANALOGS AND ECMWF SUGGESTING NORTHERN IOWA...THE 09.12Z NAM ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TO I-90...THE 09.12Z ECMWF ALONG I-90 TO GREEN BAY...AND THE 09.12Z CANADIAN/GFS JUST NORTH OF I-90. A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE DISAGREEMENT ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND SETS UP...AND THE EVENT STILL BEING 48-72 HOURS OUT. HOWEVER...A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. AS THE SHORTWAVES PULL OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A DRIER PERIOD THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACCORDINGLY TO NOW DRY IN OUR NORTHWEST HALF. STILL MAINTAINED SOME 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF IN THE EVENT THE SHORTWAVES PULL OUT SLOWER LIKE THE 09.12Z CANADIAN. AFTER SATURDAY AND THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOSTLY IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE LITTER THE FORECAST. THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE SOME DRY PERIODS...BUT TIMING THAT LOOKS EXTREMELY PROBLEMATIC AS WE SIT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE 09.00Z/12Z ECMWF OF ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE RIDGE AND IMPACTING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE TAME. GIVEN WHAT HAPPENS THU/FRI...WE DEFINITELY DO NOT THE ECMWF RAIN. BEING UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL FLOW WITH OFF AND ON PRECIPITATION...WE SHOULD HOVER NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS FOR HIGHS AND LOWS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A GENERALLY DRY...QUIET VFR PERIOD EXPECTED...EVEN WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. WARM...RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WITH A MDT SOUTHWEST GRADIENT IS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT IS ON THE LOWER SIDE AND MOST OF THE FORCING/LIFT WITH IT LOOKS TO PASS NORTH/EAST OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT 00Z THE FRONT IS STILL WELL WEST/NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR A KDLH-KFSD LINE. THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THRU KRST AROUND 06Z AND KLSE AROUND 08Z. BY THAT TIME ANY SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF/ALONG IT ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING/DISSIPATING. ONLY CARRIED A VCSH AT KRST IN THE 03-06Z TIMEFRAME. WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST FOR LATER TONIGHT/WED AS A WEAK CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND REMAIN MOSTLY 8-12KTS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2015 A 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 5 INCHES AND POSSIBLY HIGHER...IS LOOKING TO FALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN WISCONSIN HIGHWAY 29 AND U.S. HIGHWAY 20 IN OUR REGION BETWEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING. RIVER CONTINGENCY FORECASTS USING THIS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL SUGGESTS GAUGES ON ANY RIVER EXCEPT THE MISSISSIPPI COULD REACH MODERATE OR MAJOR STAGE. THE MISSISSIPPI COULD CLIMB AT LEAST TO MINOR. AREAL AND URBAN FLOODING WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE...AND LIKELY SHOULD THE BAND SET UP OVER LA CROSSE OR AUSTIN. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT HALF OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RAINFALL MAY FALL IN 3 HOURS ACCORDING TO HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...SUGGESTING SOME FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. THE NEXT 2 DAYS WILL ALL BE ABOUT PINNING DOWN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BAND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION.....RRS HYDROLOGY...AJ  FXUS63 KARX 182007 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 307 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH THE RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE 18.12Z MODELS ARE ALL VERY SIMILAR WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM...BUT PLENTY OF QUESTIONS REMAIN ON HOW THE RESULTING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL EVOLVE. SEVERAL PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. AS THESE WAVES COME ACROSS THE ROCKIES...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY EVENING. INITIALLY THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE EAST BEFORE TAKING A TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WHERE WILL THIS TURN OCCUR? WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS WILL SPREAD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AND PROVIDE A CAPPING ENVIRONMENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST. SOUTHEAST OF THIS CAP...A GOOD CAPE POOL SHOULD BE IN PLACE WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CAP. THE MCS SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CAP AND THEN TURN SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAPE POOL AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO DIURNALLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE 18.12Z GFS LOOKS TO BE THE QUICKEST TO TURN THE MCS HAVING THIS OCCUR OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THEN TRACK IT INTO NORTHWESTERN IOWA. THE 18.12Z NAM AND ECMWF BRING IT MORE INTO WESTERN OR CENTRAL MINNESOTA BEFORE TURNING IT TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF SATURDAY...ALL THE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL START TO REINTENSIFY WITH THE NOSE OF JET COMING RIGHT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE INSTABILITY INTO THE AREA WITH THE NAM SHOWING ML CAPE OF 1500 J/KG OR HIGHER POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE GFS SHOWS THE CAPE IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA...BUT KEEPS THE VALUES AT 1000 J/KG UP TO ABOUT INTERSTATE 94 WITH 1500 J/KG OR GREATER OVER NORTHEAST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MCS SHOULD HAVE A FULLY DEVELOPED MCV WITH IT AND AS THE FORCING FROM THE MCV INTERACTS WITH THE INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET AND INSTABILITY AXIS...THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...FEELING FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE MCS FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...JUST NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT YET ON EXACTLY WHAT PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WILL BE. THIS LEADS TO A RATHER BROAD BRUSHED AREA OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FACTOR WITH THIS COMPLEX WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE CAPE WILL START TO COME IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE SO FOR SATURDAY WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSED ON THE AREA. THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA COULD GET CAPPED OFF SATURDAY MORNING WITH THIS POTENTIALLY NOT MIXING OUT UNTIL MID TO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WARM AIR ALOFT WILL INCREASE THE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING THESE COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 3.5 TO 4 KM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS OR GREATER SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. AT THIS POINT...WOULD TEND TO THINK THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS MAY PRECLUDE ANY HAIL THAT FORMS FROM GETTING VERY LARGE...BUT A RELATIVELY FAT CAPE PROFILE IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THAT SUB SEVERE HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. FOR THE MOST PART...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN A ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST OF THESE SHOULD ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT PUSHING A SURFACE BOUNDARY/WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE AREA AND THEN START TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW FORMS ALONG THE FRONT OVER NEBRASKA AND THEN MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT. AFTER TUESDAY...THE GFS STARTS TO GO DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS THE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA AS DOES THE 18.12Z GEM. WILL SHOW ANYWHERE FROM 20 TO 50 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD TO HANDLE THESE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE MAIN IMPACT TO THE TAF SITES WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CUMULUS CLOUDS...WITH CLOUD BASES IN THE 2500 TO 3500 FT RANGE...AND SOME ALTO CUMULUS/STRATUS. AFTER THE WAVE DEPARTS EARLY THIS EVENING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 8 TO 13 KT RANGE TOMORROW AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...WETENKAMP  FXUS63 KARX 190750 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 250 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015 HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD PROVIDE TRANQUIL WEATHER TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. MAIN FOCUS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE CLUSTER/LINE OF STORMS MOVING IN TOWARD MORNING. PARADE OF DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW BRINGS THE NEXT ONE INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY...INITIATING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. THIS COMPLEX LOOKS TO TRAVERSE EAST INTO MN OVERNIGHT...AND THIS COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS SYSTEM HAS AMPLE SHEAR AND DESPITE IT LIKELY BEING IN A DISSIPATING MODE BY THE TIME IT GETS HERE...IT COULD STILL BE PACKING SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 223 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015 MAIN FOCUS IS HOW THE COMPLEX COMING IN SATURDAY MORNING WILL IMPACT THE AREA. GIVEN TIME OF DAY THAT THE COMPLEX IS ARRIVING... LOSS OF LOW LEVEL JET...AND INCREASED CAPPING INVERSION LIMITING AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...SEEMS REASONABLE THAT ANY STORMS WILL BE LOSING STEAM AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. INDEED DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE MAIN COMPLEX...WE COULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING. THIS IS KEY TO WHAT WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WAS DRIVING THE STORM COMPLEX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON... ALONG WITH ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT. IF THERE ARE A LOT OF RESIDUAL STORMS/SHOWERS AND CLOUDS...WE MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RECOVER AND BUILD ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR NEW STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. BUT IF THE STORMS WEAKEN SOONER OR IF ACTIVITY IS LIMITED...WE HAVE MUCH MORE OPPORTUNITY TO BUILD CAPE. AT THIS POINT HAVE OPTED TO PLAY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH TO HAPPEN. HAVE INCLUDED HIGH CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE MORNING HOURS...AND ALSO HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SO MANY SUBTLE NUANCES THAT WILL BE KEY TO HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE. HOPEFULLY THE SITUATION WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PRIMARY THREATS WITH STORMS LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND OR JUST OVER 2 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH GREATER THAN 12KFT. BUT SHEAR AND STORM MODE SUPPORT SQUALL LINE WITH STRONG WIND AND BOWING SEGMENTS. THE PARADE CONTINUES RIGHT ON THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH...AND A SURFACE FRONT LINGERING JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN IN THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015 WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND FIELD TONIGHT...BUT T/TD SPREAD SHOULD STAY LARGE ENOUGH TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST/SOUTH AND INCREASE FRI MORNING. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP FRI NIGHT WITH MINIMAL DECOUPLING/TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUDS/LOWERING DECK ALONG WITH AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR SHRA/TS AFTER 12Z SAT. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PUSH ACROSS MN AND INTO WI. LIKELY IN A DYING PHASE AS IT REACHES KRST/KLSE...BUT COULD STILL PACK A PUNCH WITH INDICATIONS THAT BOW ECHOES/STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN COULD ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. FURTHER CONVECTION POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...RIECK  FXUS63 KARX 030717 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS SLATED TO SPIN ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACCOMPANYING IT...A MOSTLY WEST-EAST RUNNING SFC FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF IT...MOVING OVER NORTHERN WI THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH AS MUCH AS 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE ALONG/AHEAD OF IT AND 1000-700 MB LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8.5 C/KM RANGE. NOT A LOT OF SATURATION WITH IT...BUT ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. MESO MODELS SHOW THIS LIKELY OUTCOME WELL...QUICKLY DIMINISHING THE ACTIVITY WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME HEATING /INSTABILITY/ IN THE EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED PCPN WILL HOLD ACROSS NORTHERN WI...BUT COULD WORK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRING AN ISOLD/SCT SHOWER OR STORM TO TAYLOR/CLARK COUNTIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI. WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NOTE - SOME SUGGESTIONS VIA SOME MESO MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM12 THAT THE RAIN THREAT COULD LINGER FARTHER INTO TONIGHT - POTENTIALLY WORKING TOWARD THE I-90 CORRIDOR. ON SAT...WHILE ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE HEADED TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...THE SFC FRONT WILL HOLD UP WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MN-CENTRAL WI. WEAK CONVERGENCE PERSISTS...WITH THE NAM PRODUCING WELL OVER 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. SEEMS A BIT AMBITIOUS WITH OTHER MODELS SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG. STILL...ADD IN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ENOUGH SATURATION AND A FEW MORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD POP UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...THE BOUNDARY COULD GET SOME AID FROM A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY CAN/T GUARANTEE A DRY 4TH HOLIDAY FOR ALL...BUT THE PCPN THAT COULD DEVELOP SHOULD BE OF THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED NATURE. BOUNDARY EXITS/WEAKENS ON SUNDAY...AND IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY. FOR TEMPS...LOOKS LIKE A SEASONABLY WARM HOLIDAY WEEKEND AFTER TODAY. SFC FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SOME PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARMING FROM THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 LOOK TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR SAT/SUN. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF WESTERN CANADA SOUTHEAST TO ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT SUN. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD THE WAY INTO THE REGION...WITH A SLUG OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT JUST OUT AHEAD OF IT. INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT CURRENT TIMING OF OVERNIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING WOULD PUT IT AT A MINIMUM. WIND SHEAR IS LOCATED BEHIND THE FRONT - AWAY FROM THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY. FORCING/MOISTURE SHOULD PRODUCE A SWATH OF SHOWERS/STORMS EITHERWAY...WITH MONDAY LOOKING LIKE A RELATIVELY WET DAY. TIMING IS IMPORTANT WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN EVEN BY 6 HOURS...INSTABILITY COULD BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY COMES INTO THE PICTURE. DISCONNECT BETWEEN SHEAR-INSTABILITY HELPS KEEP A SEVERE RISK TEMPERED...BUT CAN/T SAY NO TO THAT QUESTION YET. WHAT IT MAY LACK IN FAVORABLE SEVERE PARAMETERS AT THIS MOMENT...IT DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. GFS HAS NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PW WITH A WARM CLOUD DEPTH IN EXCESS OF 4000 KM. MONDAY IS CERTAINLY A DAY TO WATCH. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015 HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. BOTH THE RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT FOG WILL POTENTIALLY IMPACT CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THE RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE TRI- STATE AREA. SOME NEGATIVES FOR OVERNIGHT...1.THE TEMPERATURES DEW POINT SPREADS ARE 3 DEGREES HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME...2. CLOUDS ARE CLEARING SLOWER THAN EXPECTED...AND 3. A SHORT NIGHT. FOR THE TIME BEING OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST THE FOG FORECAST IN TACT FOR NOW. IF THIS FOG FORMS...IT WILL AFFECT THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO VALLEYS BETWEEN 03.08Z AND 03.13Z...AND KLSE BETWEEN 03.10Z AND 03.13Z. OTHER THAN VALLEY FOG...NOT EXPECTING ANY OTHER THING TO IMPACT VISIBILITIES OR CEILINGS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION.....BOYNE  FXUS63 KARX 032009 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL -SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING...TEMPERATURES. DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAD LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST CENTRAL ONT WAS TRAILING A TROUGH/FRONT ACROSS LK SUPERIOR TO NEAR KDLH TO NORTHEAST SD. DEEPER MOISTURE AND DIURNAL CUMULUS WERE MAINLY NEAR/BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA SO FAR TODAY CONFINED TO NORTHEAST MN NEAR THE SHORTWAVE...AND OVER THE U.P. OF MI IN THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/FRONT. VIS IMAGERY SHOWED THE VEIL OF CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE REMAINED OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...THICKEST OVER ND/NORTHWEST MN...WHERE SOME SFC OBS REPORTING VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN HZ/SMOKE WITH MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT. EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS AGAIN ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY JULY. NO ISSUES NOTED WITH 03.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. MODELS VERY SIMILAR AS ONE SHORTWAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/HURON THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ANOTHER MOVES FROM EASTERN MT THIS AFTERNOON TO SOUTHWEST MN BY 00Z SUN. TIGHTER CONSENSUS AS THIS WAVE THEN LIFTS TOWARD NORTHWEST WI BY 12Z SUN. TREND FAVORS FASTER OF THE EARLY RUNS WITH MT/MN WAVE BY LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT. WITH THE TIGHT CONSENSUS...SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE. IN THE SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS LK SUPERIOR/HURON DRAGS THE WEAK SFC FRONT/BOUNDARY IN THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...TO SOUTHWEST OF I-94 BY 12Z SAT. THIS WITH SOME WEAK 925- 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 250-500 J/KG OF MUCAPE THRU THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTH 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA. SMOKE AND REDUCED DIURNAL WARMING MAY LIMIT THE INSTABILITY...BUT WILL LEAVE A 20 PERCENT -SHRA/TSRA CHANCE OVER ABOUT THE NORTH 1/4 OF THE FCST AREA THRU THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY AND STRONGER OF ANY FORCING WELL EAST OF THE FCST AREA...TREND FCST DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND FOR SAT MORNING. BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF I-94 SAT MORNING...THEN LIFTS SLOWLY NORTH SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER LEVEL GRADIENTS/SOUTH WINDS INCREASE ACROSS MN/IA/WI. SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES NEAR THE BOUNDARY...WITH MUCAPE PROGGING IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING. CONTINUED A SMALL -SHRA/TSRA CHANCE IN THE 18Z SAT TO 03Z SUN PERIOD WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN TOWARD NORTHWEST WI. DID SHIFT THE CHANCES NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS GRID SET TO BE CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. LOWER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA LATER SAT EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF THE CAPE...AND LEFT THE 03Z-12Z SUN PERIOD DRY EVEN AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NORTHWEST WI. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 FOR SUNDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT... MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...PASSING FRONT AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES CENTERED ON MONDAY...TEMPERATURES. 03.12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH/ SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS THRU THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUN AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN NIGHT. HOWEVER TREND IS SLOWER/STRONGER WITH THIS TROUGH/ENERGY BY SUN NIGHT. SOME DETAIL DIFFERENCES BY MON BUT DECENT OVERALL CONSENSUS FOR A STRONGER TROUGH AXIS TO BE NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY LATE MON...THEN SWINGING EAST ACROSS MN/WI/IA MON NIGHT. GIVEN THE TIGHTER CONSENSUS...SUN THRU MON NIGHT FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE GOOD SIDE. SLOWING TREND OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOWER LEVEL TROUGH/FRONT...DEEPER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LOW LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO TREND DRY AND WARM. MODEL SOUNDING SHOWING DIURNAL MIXING TO NEAR 850MB SUN...WITH RATHER STRONG CAPPING IN THE 850-700MB PORTION OF THE COLUMN SUN AFTERNOON. GRADIENT TIGHTENS THRU THE DAY ON SUN...FOR SOUTHERLY MIXED LAYER WINDS OF 10-20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANGE FROM NORTHWEST 700-400MB WINDS TO MORE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL BLOW THE CANADIAN FIRE SMOKE OUT OF THE REGION. COLUMN QUITE DRY ON SUNDAY FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. 925MB TEMPS IN THE 22C TO 24C RANGE SUN AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID...EVEN A FEW UPPER...80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUN. SLOWING KEEPS THE MAIN MOISTURE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY AXIS WEST OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL LATER SUN NIGHT. LEFT SUN THRU SUN EVENING DRY. STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGHING/SHORTWAVE NOW LOOKS TO SEND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE UP THE FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST MN BY 12Z MON...LIFTING INT NORTHERN WI BY 00Z TUE. THIS WITH WHAT LOOKS BE EVEN DEEPER/STRONGER FORCING/LIFT OVER THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON EVENING. SPREAD 70-80 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON MON. SEVERE RISK WITH TSRA ON MON REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...WITH STRONGER OF THE SHEAR INTO THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE FCST AREA AND HIGHER OF THE CAPE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FCST AREA. CONVECTION TIMING IS ALSO LIKELY TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE FCST AREA ALREADY MON MORNING...LIMITING CAPE POTENTIAL. PW VALUES PROGGED IN THE 1.75 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE MON...THIS WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN THE 4KM RANGE. SHRA/TSRA MONDAY SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HEAVY RAIN CERTAINLY A THREAT MON IF TSRA ARE SLOW MOVING OR REPEAT OVER THE SAME LOCATION. SFC LOW/WAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASS LATER MON AFTERNOON/MON EVENING...WITH DRIER/COOLER CAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. PW VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN 0.75 INCH AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. LIMITED BULK OF THE MON NIGHT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO THE EVENING HOURS. TRENDED SUN HIGHS TOWARD WARMER OF GUIDANCE VALUES...THEN FAVORED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7... MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WED NIGHT THRU FRI...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 03.00Z/03.12Z IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR RISING HGTS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TUE/TUE NIGHT AS THE MONDAY TROUGHING MOVES INTO EASTERN CAN. HGTS START TO FALL ALREADY ON WED AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CAN...HOWEVER MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER ON THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE TROUGHING. THESE DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU THU...WITH GFS HAVING WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE REGION WHILE ECMWF PROGS BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS ON THU. MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT FRI WITH BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT GET THERE BY DIFFERENT ROUTES. FCST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE TO GOOD TUE INTO WED THEN BELOW AVERAGE FOR WED NIGHT THRU FRI. CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR RISING HGTS AND COOLER/DRIER CAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUE INTO WED. FASTER ECMWF TROUGHING BY LATER WED LOOKS TO STRUGGLE TO BRING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA...WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH HOLDING OUT THRU WED. MODELS OUT OF PHASE /AT LEAST AT 500MB/ FOR WED NIGHT/THU...HOWEVER AT THE LOWER LEVELS SOME SIMILARITY FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOISTURE INCREASE INTO THE REGION. MODELS MORE SIMILAR AT 500MB THU NIGHT/FRI...WITH SOME FORM OF SOUTHWEST FLOW/MOISTURE FEED INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. 20-30 PERCENT CONSENSUS SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED NIGHT THRU FRI OKAY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS CONVERGE ON A COMMON SOLUTION AND DETAILS IN THESE LATER PERIODS SORT THEMSELVES OUT. EVEN THOUGH WED NIGHT THRU FRI PRECIP CHANCES MAY BE QUESTIONABLE...REASONABLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR TEMP TO REMAIN NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK. TUE TRENDS TO BE THE COOLER OF THE DAY 4-7 DAYS WITH SLOW WARMING THRU THE WEEK. WITH DRIER HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TUE NIGHT...CONSENSUS LOWS THAT PERIOD STILL LOOK TOO WARM. OTHERWISE MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND OF HIGHS/LOWS FOR TUE THRU FRI APPEAR WELL TRENDED FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE 03.12Z NAM SUGGESTING IT WILL ONLY MAKE IT TO ABOUT CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN BEFORE STALLING OUT SUNDAY MORNING AND STARTING TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT FORMS ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON IS SHOWN BY THE NAM AND 03.15Z HRRR TO DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST STAYING WELL EAST OF EITHER TAF SITE. THIS SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS TODAY AND THEN POSSIBLY SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES WAS BEGINNING TO PRODUCE SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. FOR NOW...DO NOT PLAN TO SHOW ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THIS SMOKE WITH THE FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION WITH LATER FORECASTS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RRS LONG TERM....RRS AVIATION.....04  FXUS63 KARX 040732 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 230 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATE DAY CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN WI YESTERDAY WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. MESO MODELS DON/T APPEAR AS ENTHUSIASTIC IN THE SOUTHERN PUSH OF THE BOUNDARY...LEANING TOWARD KEEPING IT NORTH OF I-90. ISOLATED CONVECTION SPARKS AS AFTERNOON INSTABILITY BUILDS...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. I-94 CORRIDOR AND NORTH LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE FAVORED FOR THIS WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY. IT WON/T BE A RAIN OUT FOR ANYONE/S 4TH OF JULY PLANS...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW PEOPLE GETTING WET - ALTHOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY WILL STAY DRY. THE SMOKE FROM FIRES ACROSS ALASKA AND CANADA ARE MAKING FOR SPECTACULAR SUNRISE/SUNSETS...ALONG WITH GIVING THE MOON A RED HUE. ITS MAY ALSO SERVE TO TEMPER HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES...CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE SUN. THAT SAID...A PUSH OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A MORE SOUTHERLY SFC/NEAR SFC FLOW SHOULD HELP TEMPS WARM WELL INTO THE 80S. LIKELY AT OR ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. MAY TICK THEM BACK A DEGREE OR TWO ON ACCOUNT OF THE SMOKE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA SOUTHWEST...MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z MON...AND EAST OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY 00Z TUE. THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE TROUGH HOLDS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...BUT ITS ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...RUNNING FROM NORTHWEST WI INTO WESTERN IA BY 18Z MON...AND GRADUALLY TREKKING INTO EASTERN WI LATER MON EVENING. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC LIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A SLUG OF LOW LEVEL WARMING. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 300 MB COULD ADD SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. APPRECIABLE SLUG OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DRIVING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUN NIGHT...HOLDING STEADY AHEAD OF IT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ON MONDAY. PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR AREAS/LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED DEVELOPING MUCH OF THE PCPN ALONG AND POST THE FRONT...WITH A 900-800 MB WARM LAYER ACTING AS A CAP TO SFC BASED CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. NEED THE KICK OF THE BOUNDARY TO GET THINGS GOING. INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE VIA THE GFS. THE NAM REMAINS MORE ROBUST...PUSHING 3500 J/KG...AND LIKELY OVERDONE. SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WHICH WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY COULD BE REALIZED. THE BULK OF THE WIND SHEAR IS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH THIS DISCONNECT BETWEEN INSTABILITY- SHEAR SERVING TO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS HIGH. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE RAIN THREAT...CONSULT THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. SUFFICE TO SAY...WHILE THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM MAY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR BIG HAIL/WIND...THE HAZARDS FROM HEAVY RAIN ARE PEAKING. THANKFULLY GROUNDS ARE NOT SATURATED OTHERWISE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD BE A GIMMIE. MODELS STAY IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...GOING FROM ZONAL FLOW TO A BIT MORE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. ALL SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT - EVEN SMALL - SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WOULD SHUFFLE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...MAKING DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SHORTWAVE TO THEN SWING ACROSS THE REGION SAT/SUN...RETURNING THE THREAT FOR RAIN. WILL HOLD WITH CONSENSUS RAIN CHANCES. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE EARLY JULY NORMS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY...BUT THE RIDGE WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMING BY THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015 04.00Z MODELS ARE NOT DROPPING THE COLD FRONT AS FAR SOUTH AS EARLIER...SO BACKED AWAY FROM THE CLOUDS A BIT. ANOTHER NEW DEVELOPMENT IS THAT THE AIR QUALITY MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SURFACE SMOKE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. DUE TO THIS...LOWERED THE VISIBILITIES TO 4 STATUE MILES DUE TO HAZE DURING THE TIME PERIOD. && .HYDROLOGY...(MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 BOTH THE GFS AND NAM POINT TO WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4000+ M WITH PWS APPROACHING 2 1/4 INCHES MONDAY. PW ANOMALIES ARE 2-3 VIA NAEFS. ANY STORMS/SHOWERS SHOULD BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS LOOKING LIKELY. IF REALIZED...EXPECT LOCALIZED/ URBAN FLOODING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE EXTENSIVE PROBLEMS IF THERE IS TRAINING OR REPEATED HITS ON LOCATIONS. 3 HOUR FFG SITS AT 2.5-3 FOR THE MOST PART. IF THE GROUNDS WERE SATURATED...WOULD HAVE TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO WATCH. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION.....BOYNE HYDROLOGY....RIECK  FXUS63 KARX 041956 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 256 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL CANADA WITH A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE 04.12 MODELS IS TO CONTINUE MOVING THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS CANADA WHILE THE SHORT WAVE THROUGH DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE WAVE SHOULD MAINTAIN IS POSITIVE TILT AS IT COMES ACROSS...ALTHOUGH THE 04.12Z ECMWF HAS STARTED TO SHOW THAT THE WAVE COULD TAKE A MORE NEUTRAL TILT MONDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO. IF THIS DID OCCUR...IT WOULD SEEM THE ONLY IMPACT ON THE FORECAST WOULD BE FOR THE RAIN CHANCES TO POSSIBLY LINGER LONGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH LATER MODEL RUNS AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY IF IT DOES. BECAUSE THE WAVE IS COMING IN WITH A POSITIVE TILT...THE BEST PV ADVECTION WILL REMAIN ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE WAVE AND ACROSS CANADA. THIS LEAVES JUST SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION TO COME ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE LIFT SHOULD BE ENHANCED SOME LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE AREA COMES UNDER THE EQUATOR SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...ALTHOUGH THE TRUE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION MAY REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. THE FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE DEEP FRONTOGENESIS ALONG IT IN THE 1000-500 MB LAYER...BUT IT ONLY LOOKS TO BE WEAK IN STRENGTH. DECENT ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE WILL OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BETWEEN 3 AND 6 UBAR/S POSSIBLE ON THE 305K SURFACE. ADD ALL THIS UP...AND THERE LOOKS TO BE AMPLE FORCING FOR RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL SHOW A AXIS OF 80 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH CAPE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE 04.12Z NAM BUILDS UP TO 3000 J/KG OF ML CAPE WHILE THE 04.12Z GFS JUST GETS 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THAT THE NAM HAS A BIAS OF BEING TOO HIGH WITH THE DEW POINTS...WHICH IT HAS CLIMBING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...IT DEVELOPS TOO MUCH CAPE. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS ON THE LOWER CAPE VALUES AND LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THE CAPE PROFILE IS TALL AND SKINNY SUGGESTING STRONG UP DRAFTS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME SURVIVING. THE SATURATED LAYER IS VERY DEEP WHICH WOULD LEAD MORE TO HEAVY RAIN INSTEAD OF HAIL. IF A STRONGER STORM CAN GET GOING...SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS IF THE 0-3KM SHEAR TO GET INTO THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE AS SUGGESTED MONDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE REGION...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO GO NEARLY ZONAL. EXPECTING THAT THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW THAT WILL BRING SOME ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES. SOME SUGGESTION BY THE GFS AND 04.12Z ECMWF OF ONE OF THESE WAVES COMING ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS WEAK PATTERN...WILL HAVE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 SMOKE FROM CANADIAN/ALASKAN WILDFIRES CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE REGION PRODUCING VISIBILITIES IN THE 5 TO 6 SM RANGE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL PROVIDING QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SMOKE WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW. FOR THE MOST PART VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL DROP TO MVFR. && .HYDROLOGY...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMBING INTO THE 2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE. WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 3.5 TO 4.5 KM...THE STORMS SHOULD BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. HOWEVER...NOT SURE HOW WIDESPREAD THESE MORE EFFICIENT STORMS WILL BE WITH THE BEST FORCING FROM THE WAVE REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST QPF AXIS LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS RESULTS IN TOTAL QPF OVER THE LOCAL AREA OF AN INCH OR LESS. NOT EXPECTING THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANY WATCHES OR ESF IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE. .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...WETENKAMP HYDROLOGY...04  FXUS63 KARX 050815 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MONDAY - WITH THE SUITE OF MODELS REMAINING ADAMANT ITS GOING TO BE A WET START TO THE NEW WEEK. QUESTIONS ARE WHETHER THERE COULD BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS...AND JUST HOW GOOD IS THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLATED TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY EVENING. THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING HOLDS HERE...BUT ITS ACCOMPANYING SFC COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY MON/MON NIGHT. DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LAYING THE BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST WI INTO EASTERN IA AT 00Z TUE. GOOD FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH THE FRONT...WHILE LOW LEVEL WARMING LEADS THE SYSTEM INTO THE REGION. THIS WARMING SHOULD ACT AS A CAP TO CONVECTION...WITH MODELS SUGGESTING STORMS WILL NEED THE LIFT AROUND THE FRONT TO GET GOING...THUS MOST OF THE PCPN FALLS ALONG AND POST THE BOUNDARY. HEFTY 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BECOMING MORE FOCUSED TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SO - EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO MARCH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT-MONDAY...IN A NE/SW ORIENTATION...BULK OF WHICH EXITS BY 06Z TUE. AS FOR A STRONG/SEVERE THREAT...THE GFS/NAM BOTH BUILD A 2-3 K J/KG RIDGE OF MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE NAM STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INSTABILITY COMPARED TO THE GFS. DISCONNECT PERSISTS WITH THE STRONGER/DEEPER WIND SHEAR - WHICH STAYS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LIMITED / IF ANY OVERLAP HELPS TEMPER THE SEVERE THREAT. MEANWHILE...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 4000 M ARE SUGGESTED...FAVORING HEAVY RAIN OVER LARGE HAIL. THAT SAID - A LOT OF SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR. THINK SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AND WON/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. FOR MORE ON THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...CONSULT THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY...BRINGING A FEW DRY AND RELATIVELY COOLER DAYS. OVERALL FLOW IS MORE ZONAL...BUT THE MODELS SUGGEST BROAD RIDGING BY THE WEEKEND. WOULD GET A BUMP BACK TO THE SEASONABLE NORMALS IF THIS OCCURS. SOME DISCORD IN THE MODELS - EC/GFS/GEM - ON IF/WHEN ANY SHORTWAVES ALONG THE FLOW WILL SKIP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING A SHOWER/STORM THREAT. LATEST GFS/GEM WOULD SWING A PERTURBATION THROUGH THE PLAINS TO ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY. THE EC IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. NOT A CLEAR CUT WINNER HERE. WILL LEAN ON CONSENSUS FOR RAIN CHANCES FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015 AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TONIGHT...THE SMOKE AND HAZE WILL EXIT THE AREA. THIS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA BETWEEN 05.06Z AND 05.10Z...AND ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN BETWEEN 05.08Z AND 05.10Z. WITH THE 05.00Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW THAT THE WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN WELL MIXED...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY VALLEY FOG AFFECTING KLSE. THE ONLY PLACE THAT STILL MAY SEE SOME VALLEY FOG WILL BE IN THE WISCONSIN AND KICKAPOO RIVER VALLEYS. WITH DIURNAL MIXING ON SUNDAY...THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AND THE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THESE GUST SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. AFTER 06.04Z...THE NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING THAT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP AT KLSE. MEANWHILE THE GFS DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH WIND AT THE TOP OF 2K LAYER FOR WIND SHEAR. WITH THIS BEING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND THE NAM TENDENCY OF BEING TOO STRONG WITH ITS WINDS...OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT THE KLSE TAF AT THIS TIME. && .HYDROLOGY...(MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 IMPRESSIVE SIGNALS IN THE MODELS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL - PWS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4000+ M...STRONG SURGE OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT...AND NAEFS PW ANOMALIES RIGHT AROUND +3. ANY STORM SHOULD BE A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCER...AND COULD DROP A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE NORTH...ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND WHERE THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT RESIDES. ALSO...WITH A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS IS LOWERED...HELPING TO REIGN IN HIGHER QPF. ALL SAID THOUGH...THE SETUP FAVORS LOCALIZED 2 INCH AMOUNTS. MEANWHILE...RAINFALL RATES COULD RESULT IN URBANIZED FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISN/T NECESSARY...BUT THE SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION.....BOYNE HYDROLOGY....RIECK  FXUS63 KARX 052002 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 302 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON THE RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL MANITOBA ALONG THE WESTERN SHORES OF HUDSONS BAY. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE FAR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE 05.12Z MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO THE EAST AND REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COME THROUGH AND MAINTAIN THEIR POSITIVE TILT. THE TIMING OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE JUST A TOUCH SLOWER STAYING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN SWEEPING ACROSS MONDAY. THE BEST PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK PV ADVECTION EXPECTED TO COME ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT THE PV ADVECTION DOES LOOK TO BE MAYBE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. THE 05.12Z NAM ALSO SHOWS A LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SOME JET DYNAMICS TO COME INTO PLAY MONDAY AS IT BRINGS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET DOWN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT DEFINITELY LOOKS TO BE SLOWER ON THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS WITH IT PROGRESSING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND EASTERN IOWA BY 00Z TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY EVENING. THIS SLOW DOWN IN THE FRONT OPENS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE 05.12Z CR-NAM NEST SUGGESTS ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OVER IOWA AND MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE CAPE COULD POOL AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA OR UP THROUGH ABOUT INTERSTATE 90. THE NAM BUILDS THE CAPE UP TO 3000 J/KG OR HIGHER...WHICH IS TOO HIGH...BUT THE 05.12Z GFS ALSO SHOWS A POOL OF 1500 J/KG OF ML CAPE IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. WITH THE POSITIVE TILT TO THIS SYSTEM...THE BEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE 0-3KM SHEAR COULD INCREASE TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS RIGHT IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THIS COULD PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME SEVERE WINDS IF THEY CAN BECOME ORIENTED FROM NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST WHICH WOULD BE PERPENDICULAR TO THE 0-3KM SHEAR VECTOR. ONE OF THOSE SCENARIOS WHERE A LOT OF THINGS HAVE TO COME TOGETHER JUST RIGHT...BUT WILL START INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE IN OUR PRODUCT SUITE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FOR THE STORMS IN GENERAL SHOULD DECREASE PRETTY QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MAKES STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS AND OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MID LEVEL FLOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AGAIN WHICH SHOULD RETURN THE SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN AND ALASKAN WILDFIRES BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE VERTICAL SMOKE FORECASTS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD START TO RETURN MONDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL TURN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TO A ZONAL PATTERN INITIALLY AND THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE PATTERN...BOTH THE GFS AND 05.12Z ECMWF DO NOT SHOW ANY STRONG SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COMING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SMALL ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MOVE IN MONDAY MORNING WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 35 TO 45 KT RANGE AT 1500 TO 2000FT LATE TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN LLWS IN THE KLSE TAF STARTING AT 12Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH 15Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MONDAY MORNING IMPACTING KRST FIRST. PLAN ON IFR CONDITIONS IN THE STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. THE STORMS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND COULD IMPACT KLSE IN THE 15Z TO 18 TIMEFRAME...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL ARRIVE AT KLSE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4 TO 4.5 KM. THE STORMS COULD ALSO DO SOME TRAINING IF THE MOVEMENT BECOMES SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...BUT THE WHOLE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF TIME THAT ANY TRAINING COULD OCCUR. GENERAL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE THREE QUARTERS TO 1.5 INCH RANGE...WHICH BY ITSELF IS NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLOODING. HOWEVER...THE STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND LIKELY HAVE SOME BRIEF HIGH RAINFALL RATES WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME VERY LOCALIZED PROBLEMS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...WETENKAMP HYDROLOGY...04  FXUS63 KARX 060755 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 THE FORECAST QUESTIONS FOR TODAY ARE NOT IF IT WILL RAIN /IT WILL/ BUT RATHER HOW STRONG THE STORMS COULD GET...HOW BIG IS THE SEVERE RISK...AND WHAT IS THE HEAVY RAIN OUTLOOK. NO CHANGE IN THE MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT/INSISTENT IN TAKING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN/US BORDER TODAY...DRIVING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS IT DOES. STRONG FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE WITH THE BOUNDARY - SHOWN IN TIME/HEIGHT X-SECTIONS. BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY HOLDS NORTH...BUT 300 MB JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION LIKELY TO AID IN THE UPWARD MOTIONS. PLENTY OF LIFT FOR A LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS - EVIDENCED BY THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE WEST. MORNING LINE WITH CONTINUE ITS TREK EAST...WITH MESO MODELS POINTING TO A LULL IN THE CHANCES BEFORE REFIRING OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MOVE IN FOR THE AFTERNOON. WILL TRY AND PAINT THE RAIN CHANCES THIS WAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE BEST WIND SHEAR AND THE CAPE AXIS - A LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. AN AXIS OF UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN WI BY 18Z...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY 00Z. AGAIN - THE NAM REMAINS MORE ROBUST THAN THE GFS. THE DEEPER...STRONGER SHEAR LIES BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THERE IS SOME OVERLAP AROUND THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER WHERE THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST 30-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE. BUT...CLOUDS AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL CUT INTO THAT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. STRONG STORMS SEEM LIKE A CERTAINTY - BUT THE SEVERE POSSIBILITIES WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON WHETHER INSTABILITY CAN BUILD. AS THIS MOMENT...THE HIGHER THREAT WOULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING - ROUGHLY 21-01Z. LOCATIONS WOULD BE FROM NORTHEAST IA INTO CENTRAL WI. FOR THREATS...THE HIGH 0-3 KM SHEAR SUPPORTS DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IF A STORM CAN ORIENTATE ITSELF NORMAL TO THE VECTOR - EAST/NORTHEAST MOVERS. NOT MUCH OF A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...SO NO HELP FOR WINDS THERE. THINK LARGE HAIL IS GOING TO HAVE A HARD TIME DEVELOPING. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS VERY HIGH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE RATHER SKINNY / LONG CAPE. BELIEVE A LOT OF SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH COULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAINS HIGH...AND MORE ON THAT IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. ONE LAST THING...SEE SOME ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL...MORESO FOR SOUTHWEST WI PER LATEST MODELS. NAM/GFS PEG 20+ KTS OF 0-1 SHEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI...WITH 0-1KM CAPE UPWARDS OF 200 J/KG. MESO MODELS PLACE A SFC LOW OVER CENTRAL IA BY 00Z THIS EVENING...WITH THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIALLY OTHER SFC BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...BUT IF A STORM CAN ATTACH ITSELF TO A BOUNDARY...THE POTENTIAL TO INGEST ENOUGH HELECITY TO SPIN SOMETHING UP IS THERE. IT NOT A GREAT THREAT...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING MOST RIPPLES IN THE FLOW NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...WITH PERHAPS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE FRI NIGHT/SAT. NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY IN THIS STEAD THOUGH...WITH THE GFS/GEM/EC ALL SHOWING VARYING DEGREES OF FLIP FLOPPING WITH PLACING SMALL CHANCE HERE AND THERE. THE LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY WORK WEEK AFTER MONDAY GETS AN UPTICK AS A RESULT. CONSENSUS SOLUTION THROWING IN SOME POPS FOR FRI-SUN WITH GFS/EC SUGGESTING RIDGE RUNNERS BRINGING A SHOWER/STORM THREAT. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH...BUT WILL STAY WITH CONSENSUS FOR NOW. WITH THE ANTICIPATED SHIFT TO RIDGING A LOFT BY THE WEEKEND...LOOK FOR TEMPS TO RETURN OR RISE ABOVE THE SEASONABLE NORMALS. IT COULD GET RATHER STEAMY TOO AS THE GFS AND EC SUGGEST MID 60S DEWPOINTS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015 THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THE TAF SITES WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. THE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO KRST AROUND 06.10Z AND KLSE AROUND 06.15Z. AS THESE STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA BOTH THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME MVFR. IN THE STRONGER STORMS...THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KRST AROUND 06.20Z AND AT KLSE AROUND 06.22Z. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO SWITCH TO NORTHWEST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE SKIES TO CLEAR AT KRST AROUND 06.03Z AND AT KLSE AROUND 06.05Z. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 MODELS STAY THE COURSE WITH PAINTING EXCELLENT CONDITIONS FOR EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TODAY. PWS EXCEED 2 INCHES...WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 4000+ M...AND A STEADY INFLUX OF WARM SOUTHERLY AIR RICH IN MOISTURE. AMPLE LIFT ALONG AND POST THE COLD FRONT TO PUT THIS MOISTURE TO GOOD USE. NAEFS ANOMALIES STILL RIGHT AROUND +3 TOO. RAINFALL RATES WILL BE HIGH IN THE STRONGER STORMS - KEY FOR URBANIZED FLOODING. THANKFULLY...THE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION AND GENERAL PROGRESSIVE TREND OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS. BUT IF THEY WOULD OCCUR...FLOODING QUICKLY BECOMES A CONCERN. THE HIGHER THREAT SHOULD BE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM INTENSITY AS THE CURRENT STORMS TO THE WEST MOVE IN WILL GET A BUMP UP FOR THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF THE LINE. OVERALL...LOCALIZED 2-3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EASILY WITHIN REACH. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION.....BOYNE HYDROLOGY....RIECK  FXUS63 KARX 110840 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 340 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 REGIONAL RADARS THIS MORNING SHOWING SOME CONVECTION THIS MORNING OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS ACTIVITY IS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI AND AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM KANSAS INTO NORTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS WITH ANOTHER OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THE TREND IN THE 11.00Z MODELS AND 11.03Z RAP IS FOR THE WAVE OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS TO FLATTEN OUT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE TOP PART OF THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE DAY. THE SURFACE WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH WITH A GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS OF IT REACHING ABOUT THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH AS WELL. THE MESO MODELS SEEMED TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO THIS AS WELL WITH THE 11.00Z CR-NAM NEST...HI-RES ARW AND NMM KEEPING THE AREA DRY WHILE THE 11.00Z NAM12 AND 11.05Z HRRR STILL TRY TO BRING THE REMAINS OF SOME DEVELOPING CENTRAL IOWA CONVECTION INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR THIS MORNING. BASED ON ALL THESE SOLUTIONS...HAVE TRENDED THE RAIN CHANCES DOWN FOR TODAY WITH ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH TO AT MOST A 40 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH. THESE COULD STILL BE TOO HIGH AS IT COULD END UP BEING TOTALLY DRY NORTH OF THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD BUILD A LITTLE BIT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH TAKING ON A MORE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION FROM A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE NAM REALLY RAMPS UP THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THIS BOUNDARY AROUND 06Z SUNDAY AND BREAKS OUT CONVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND ACROSS THE AREA. THE 11.00Z GFS SOMEWHAT HINTS AT THIS AS WELL WHILE THE 11.00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH AND MOST OF THE RAIN TO THE SOUTH AS WELL. THE HI-RES NMM IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM WHILE THE HI-RES ARW IS COMPLETELY DRY FOR TONIGHT. CONCERNED THAT THE NAM IS TOO STRONG WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT TONIGHT AND WILL ONLY CARRY A GENERAL 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA. THE REAL ACTION AND BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY COME SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COME OUT OF THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER OREGON AND NEVADA. THIS WAVE SHOULD TOP THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SUGGESTS THIS WAVE WILL PRODUCE SOME MODERATE PV ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER AS IT COMES ACROSS. THIS LIFT SHOULD BE AIDED BY SOME JET DYNAMICS FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 300 MB JET AS THIS COMES IN WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EDGE NORTH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO ILLINOIS WITH THE GFS SHOWING WEAK TO MODERATE FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER NORTH OF THE FRONT. AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES...A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THERE SHOULD STILL BE AMPLE CAPE AVAILABLE FOR THE STORMS TO WORK WITH AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE GFS SUGGESTS UP TO 2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE SUNDAY EVENING ONLY DROPPING OFF TO 1500 J/KG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. UP TO 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR SHOULD MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITH THIS BEING PRIMARILY IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. THIS WILL PRESENT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A NOCTURNAL MCS TO ROLL ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SEVERE WIND THREAT. HAIL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF THREAT WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ON THE ORDER OF 3.5 TO 4 KM...BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME GOOD RAINFALL RATES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BRIEFLY BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK BEFORE FLATTENING OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO BE A DIRTY FLOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AND COME ACROSS THE REGION. DECENT AGREEMENT IN TIMING OF A WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...BUT DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH WITH THE GFS BEING STRONGER. AFTER THAT...CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN HOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST CANADA IS HANDLED. THE GFS OPENS THIS SYSTEM UP AND BRINGS IT TOWARD THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT AS A CLOSED LOW HOLDING IT BACK WITH RIDGING OVER THE REGION. WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL STAY WITH GENERAL 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015 MAJORITY OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF TAF AIRFIELDS WITH ONLY A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP 11.06Z TAFS DRY FOR NOW GIVEN COVERAGE/ TIMING UNCERTAINTY. ASSUMING RUNWAYS REMAIN DRY...ANY CEILINGS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD BE ABOVE 3000 FT AGL...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH NORTHWARD EXTENT OF POTENTIAL MVFR DECK ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTH. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PERSIST AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...ROGERS  FXUS63 KARX 111944 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 244 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THREATS INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING THE FORCING FOR THE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TWO MAIN WAVES OF NOTE...ONE MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTHWEST PUSHING ACROSS WEST/NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. WE SHOULD SEE THE LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WANE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND POSSIBLY INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND SHEAR...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7 TO 2.0 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 4000 METERS. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SHOULD TAPER OFF SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EDGE NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IMPACTS THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THAT THE CONVECTION DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT STRONG OR WIDESPREAD THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE FRONT THEN LOOKS TO EDGE A LITTLE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH/SOUTWEST OF THE WARM FRONT. TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT...STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN. THE HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS...WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S...WILL YIELD AFTERNOON 0-1 KM MUCAPE VALUES OF 3000-5000 J/KG. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL ALSO MAKE IT FEEL UNCOMFORTABLE TOMORROW WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES EDGING INTO THE THE LOWER TO MID 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. WE WILL THEN BE KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON A SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO MINNESOTA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA ALONG THE FRONT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30 TO 35 KTS/COMBINED WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY...SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS INITIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO NEAR THE FRONT. AS WE GET INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY THE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES OR POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS...WITH THE LINE RACING SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE FRONT. LOOKING AT PAST DERECHO CASES...SHEAR/CAPE PROFILES SEEM TO FIT INTO THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. THEREFORE...WE COULD SEE A SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS BUT THE EXACT PATH THAT THESE STORMS WILL TAKE IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT. ONE THING IS FOR SURE...THE CHANCES FOR SEEING SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY EVENING IS INCREASING. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A POTENT LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING...HELPING TO INCREASE THE OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE. ONCE THE STORMS FORM INTO MORE LINEAR STRUCTURES THE MAIN THREATS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH ANY BOWING SEGMENTS AS THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES GOING INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE LINE OF STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE FORECASTS AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY DRIVING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE BUILDING SOME CAPE ON MONDAY....0-1KM MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000- 3000 J/KG THE OVERALL SHEAR LOOKS LIMITED AND FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON MONDAY GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH CAPE CAN WE BUILD BEFORE THE CONVECTION INITIATES. RIDGING THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE WE TRANSITION INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US...SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES NOTED WITHIN THIS FAST ZONAL FLOW. ITS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN TIMING OF THESE WAVES THUS WE WILL CONTINUE WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK TO WARM BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 EXPECT AN IMPROVING TREND OVER THE NEXT HOURS AT KRST AS IFR CIGS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR. THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR IF SOME SHOWERS WORK INTO KLSE BUT LATEST 60 MINUTES OF RADAR INDICATE A DIMINISHING TREND. OVERNIGHT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLEAR SKIES...IN CONCERT WITH COOLER HIGHS TODAY UNDER THE CLOUDS...WILL SET UP THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS IS ALL NORTHEAST OF A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL BE LOCATED NEAR I-35. THIS CLOUD AREA WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...ANCHORED IN WI. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AND MIX OUT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST. CONFIDENCE IN THE MORNING IFR CLOUD FORECAST IS MEDIUM. THERE COULD BE SOME LOWER VSBYS SHOULD IT ALL COME TOGETHER IDEALLY. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION...BAUMGARDT  FXUS63 KARX 041708 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1108 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...CLOUD TRENDS AND IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES. DATA ANALYSIS AT 06Z HAD A 1000MB LOW NEAR THE NEB/WY/CO BORDER WITH A TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MN. TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE LOW/TROUGH WAS OVER MN/IA/MUCH OF WI. WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF MN/IA EARLY THIS MORNING 10-15MPH G15-20MPH. WINDS ACROSS WI MORE IN THE 5-10MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED AND TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 07Z...MANY TEMPS REMAINED ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS DATE...THIS UNDER CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. FOG PRODUCT IMAGERY/SFC OBS DID SHOW AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS/BR/FG LIFTING NORTH THRU IL/FAR EASTERN IA INTO SOUTHERN WI. 04.00Z MODELS FOR THE MOST PART INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. GFS WAS ODDLY LOW WITH SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL IL WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAD PERSISTED ALL DAY. SOLUTIONS SIMILAR FOR TODAY AS PIECES OF ENERGY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH/MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BY 00Z. THIS WHILE HGTS RISE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NOAM. MODELS REMAIN VERY SIMILAR AS ENERGY STARTS TO EJECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH AND HGTS START TO FALL ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. TREND TENDS TO FAVOR COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TREND BY 12Z THU. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS GOOD THIS CYCLE. FOR THE SHORT TERM...MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS ON CLOUD COVER TODAY AND RESULTING HIGH TEMPS. WHERE LOWER LEVEL MODEL RH PROGS INDICATE THERE SHOULD BE LOW CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING...FROM EASTERN NEB/ NORTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHWEST MN...SKIES ARE CLEAR. WHERE THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS MUCH OF IL/NEARBY AREAS...MODELS SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT ON THE LOWER MOISTURE/RH SIGNAL. THIS AREA OF LOW STRATUS CONTINUES CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWEST INTO THE FCST AREA. THIS UNDER WSR-88D VAD PROFILES SHOWING 925MB WINDS SOUTHWEST 30- 40KTS AT KDMX/KDVN/KARX. USED SATELLITE CLOUD TRENDS THRU 09Z FOR CLOUD COVER/FCST GRIDS OVER THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING. MUCH LIKE TUE...STRONGER SFC-850MB GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD MIX/ERODE ANY SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER AFTER 15-16Z...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL AREAS LOOKING TO SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON. FAVORING A FCST WITH SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORED WARMER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70. IF SKIES WERE TO END UP SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY THRU THE DAY...MUCH LIKE TUE HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS COULD STILL TOP OUT IN THE 70-75F RANGE. MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH SOME SUNSHINE SHOW MIXING TO AROUND 900MB TODAY...WITH 30-35KTS IN THE UPPER PORTION OF THE MIXED LAYER. A BREEZY/WINDY DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH WINDS 15- 25MPH G25-35MPH. STRONGER OF THESE IN THE OPEN COUNTRY AREAS WEST OF THE MS RIVER. STRONGER SIGNAL AMONG MODELS FOR THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE...SFC- 850MB...TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS UNDER SOME BROAD 850- 700MB ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING INTO WESTERN MN BY 12Z THU. AS THE MOISTURE DEEPENS LATER TONIGHT MAY YET NEED A MENTION OF PATCHY DZ. WITH A LIMITED SIGNAL FOR THIS AMONG THE MODELS LEFT TONIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME. LEFT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ON THE TIGHTER SIDE AS WELL TONIGHT...WITH SFC WINDS LOOKING TO REMAIN IN THE 8-15KT RANGE THRU THE NIGHT. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FOR MIXING...A MILD NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE AREA...WITH LOWS AT OR ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR NOV 5TH. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS FOR TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 328 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 FOR THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT... MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...RAIN CHANCES/AMOUNTS THU/THU NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD. 04.00Z MODELS MAINTAIN A RATHER TIGHT CONSENSUS AS THE ROCKIES TROUGH/ENERGY MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. TREND FAVORS SLOWER OF EARLIER MODELS WITH THE TROUGH AT 00Z FRI...WITH A BIT MORE POSITIVE TILT/SHEARING OF THE LEAD ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH. FROM THIS POINT...GOOD CONSENSUS FOR THIS ENERGY/TROUGH AXIS TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST/NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT. CONSENSUS NOW INCLUDES SOME WEAK/TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRI...AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM/COLD CORE TROUGHING TO DROP INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI NIGHT. GIVEN THE RATHER GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THU THRU FRI NIGHT...FCST CONFIDENCE IS ON THE GOOD SIDE. SLIGHT SLOWING TREND OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THRU 00Z FRI DELAYS ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER FORCING/LIFT WITH IT MORE INTO THE THU AFTERNOON HOURS. PW VALUES STILL PROGGED TO INCREASE INTO THE 1 INCH RANGE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC-700MB TROUGH. HOWEVER...FORCING/ LIFT SIGNAL WITH THE MORE POSITIVE TILT TROUGH AXIS/SHEARED VORTICITY TRENDS WEAKER AS IT APPROACHES/MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTERNOON/EVENING. MUCAPE OF AROUND 250 J/KG STILL EXPECTED TO PRECEDE THE SFC-850MB FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THU AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWERED SHRA CHANCES THU MORNING...WITH INCREASING SHRA CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST THU AFTERNOON...THEN 60-80 PERCENT CHANCES THU EVENING. CONTINUED THE ISOLATED TSRA MENTION THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE WEAKER OVERALL FORCING/LIFT LOOKS TO KEEP THE MAIN PRECIP AS A BAND OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA ALONG THE FRONT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN AMOUNT THU/THU NIGHT NOW LOOKING TO BE QUITE A BIT LESS THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...MORE IN THE 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH RANGE. SHARPER SFC-500MB TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE SPELLS A QUICKER END TO THE PRECIP LATER THU NIGHT AND TRENDED RAIN CHANCES AFTER 09Z TO 20-40 PERCENT MAINLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER. SUBSIDENCE/DRYING/ COOLER AIR SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FRI UNDER THE WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT. EVEN WITH SOME SUNSHINE FOR MOST AREAS BY FRI AFTERNOON...925MB TEMPS ONLY LOOKING TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF NOV. AFTER THE PAST FEW DAYS...FRIDAY WILL FEEL COLD. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES FRI NIGHT...BUT NORTHWEST WINDS LOOKING TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED AND LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO FAR. MAY YET NEED A SMALL SHRA/SHSN CHANCE FRI NIGHT WITH STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME MOISTURE UNDER THE 850-700MB COLD POOL. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT INDICATED AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE FRI NIGHT DRY. FAVORED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT. FOR SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7... MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 04.00Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FRI NIGHT TROUGH TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SAT MORNING...THEN RISING HGTS/RIDING ALOFT TO BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER SAT THRU SUN. IMPROVING SIGNAL/CONSISTENCY FOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE PATTERN TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE REGION UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH AS IT COMES THRU THE ROCKIES. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 4- 7 PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE THIS CYCLE. COOLEST OF THE 925MB AIRMASS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION SAT. SFC RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WINDS DECOUPLED THRU MUCH OF SAT NIGHT. SAT/SAT NIGHT CONTINUE TO TREND AS THE COOLER PERIODS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THEN LOOKS TO DOMINATE FOR SUNDAY INTO TUE. TEMPS TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUN THRU TUE...MORE AROUND 5F ABOVE NORMAL VS. 10-20F ABOVE NORMAL OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. IMPROVING SIGNAL FOR THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT/MON. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SFC REFLECTION WITH THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PROGS REMAIN SCANT WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SMALL CONSENSUS SHRA CHANCES MON INTO TUE OKAY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MOISTURE AND ANY LOWER LEVEL FORCING/LIFT DETAILS SORT THEMSELVES OUT. MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHS/LOWS FOR SAT-TUE REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...THOUGH IF A DRY/SUNNY TREND IS MORE CORRECT FOR TUE THE CONSENSUS HIGHS ON DAY 7 MAY BE SOME 5F TOO COOL. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 VISIBLE SATELLITE LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE STRATUS CLOUDS ARE MIXING OUT OVER NORTHEAST IOWA INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ALSO STARTING TO SEE SOME HINTS OF THESE BREAKING UP OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE 04.15Z RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THESE CLOUD TRENDS AND SHOWS BOTH SITES SCATTERING/CLEARING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 04.12Z NAM SHOWS THIS TREND FOR KLSE AS WELL...BUT KEEPS KRST IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL SIDE WITH THE RAP AND MAINTAIN THE TRENDS OF THE CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW THESE CLOUDS REDEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND MOVED THE TIMING OF THIS UP SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALSO ADDED IN DRIZZLE FOR BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT AS THE NAM SHOWS THE CLOUD DEPTHS GETTING TO 2 TO 3 THOUSAND FEET. SOME ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 295K SURFACE WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT THROUGH THIS SATURATED LAYER AND EXPECT THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE. VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP TO MVFR THIS EVENING WHEN THE CLOUDS REDEVELOP AND THEN POSSIBLY DROP TO IFR WHEN THE DRIZZLE FORMS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RRS LONG TERM....RRS AVIATION...04  FXUS63 KARX 042003 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 202 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 202 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 INCOMING STRATUS AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. WATER VAPOR REVEALING A DEEP TROUGH CROSSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE A MAJOR UPSTREAM RIDGE WAS DOMINATING THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION/EASTERN CONUS. AS A RESULT...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH READINGS THIS AFTERNOON WELL INTO THE 60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WERE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN ACROSS WESTERN MN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. GENERAL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/LOW WILL AID IN MORE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. BUFKIT/CROSS SECTION RH FIELDS SHOWING MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER A RATHER STRONG INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 850MB. WITH THIS PILING UP OF MOISTURE/INCREASING STRATUS/LIFT UNDER THE INVERSION...THINKING AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL BREAK OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTHERN WI. TEMPERATURE-WISE...PLAN ON LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S...WHICH IS SOME 5 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AREAS OF DRIZZLE TRANSITION TO SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. NAM SHOWING 500-1000J/KG OF MUCAPE WHILE GFS20 ONLY SHOWING 250-500J/KG. BELIEVE REALIZED CAPE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DESPITE AMPLE AVAILABLE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50KT...BELIEVE MINIMAL CAPE WILL PREVENT FORMATION OF ANYTHING SEVERE. BUT...WILL MAINTAIN A CLOSE EYE ON IT ANYWAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE MAINLY A SEVERE WIND THREAT IF SOMETHING COULD GET GOING. TEMPERATURE- WISE...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL DAY THURSDAY WITH PRE- FRONTAL HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 60S. LOOK FOR THE FRONT AND SHOWERS TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH COLDER/BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MIDDLE 40S. TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 1/10 TO 1/3 INCH RANGE. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 202 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 FRIDAY WILL BE A BRISK/COLDER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THEN LOWER 50S....WHICH REALLY...IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WILL ADD A NOVEMBER FEEL TO THE AIR. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK QUIET AS UPPER/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATE THE REGION. AFTER A RATHER COOL SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S...PLAN ON SOME WARMING ON SUNDAY INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S SUNDAY AS SOUTH WINDS KICK IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH. BY MONDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH BRINGS A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. APPEARS THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH DRY WITH PERHAPS A FEW MID CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH IT. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THAT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST WED NOV 4 2015 VISIBLE SATELLITE LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS THE STRATUS CLOUDS ARE MIXING OUT OVER NORTHEAST IOWA INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. ALSO STARTING TO SEE SOME HINTS OF THESE BREAKING UP OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AS WELL. THE 04.15Z RAP SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THESE CLOUD TRENDS AND SHOWS BOTH SITES SCATTERING/CLEARING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 04.12Z NAM SHOWS THIS TREND FOR KLSE AS WELL...BUT KEEPS KRST IN THE CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL SIDE WITH THE RAP AND MAINTAIN THE TRENDS OF THE CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW THESE CLOUDS REDEVELOPING THIS EVENING AND MOVED THE TIMING OF THIS UP SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALSO ADDED IN DRIZZLE FOR BOTH SITES OVERNIGHT AS THE NAM SHOWS THE CLOUD DEPTHS GETTING TO 2 TO 3 THOUSAND FEET. SOME ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE 295K SURFACE WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT THROUGH THIS SATURATED LAYER AND EXPECT THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME DRIZZLE. VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP TO MVFR THIS EVENING WHEN THE CLOUDS REDEVELOP AND THEN POSSIBLY DROP TO IFR WHEN THE DRIZZLE FORMS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM....DAS AVIATION...04  FXUS63 KARX 050941 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 341 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 341 AM CST THU NOV 5 2015 MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE PASSING COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES. 06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE IN FAR SOUTHWEST ONT/NORTHWEST MN...WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST TO ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE KS/NEB/CO BORDER. MDT SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW/FRONT AND/OR STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUING TO KEEP TEMPS VERY MILD FOR EARLY NOV... WITH READINGS ACROSS MN/IA/WI AT 07Z MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH A FEW LOWER 60S. 05.00Z RAOBS AROUND THE AREA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING A PROMINENT INVERSION NEAR/JUST ABOVE 850MB ACROSS THE REGION...WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE/SATURATION BELOW THE INVERSION. LOCALLY...WEAK SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND 295K PRODUCING SOME DZ OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA. MODEL RUNS OF 05.00Z INITIALIZED VERY WELL AND OFFER GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THEIR 03.00Z/04.00Z RUNS. MODELS OFFERING A TIGHT CONSENSUS AS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE ENERGY/TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY THEN INTO/ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. TREND BY 00Z FRI AND ESPECIALLY BY 12Z FRI FAVORS FASTER OF THE EARLIER RUNS AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO/ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE TIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS...SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS CYCLE. IN THE SHORT TERM...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE AREA UNDER A RATHER STRONG CAPPING INVERSION JUST ABOVE 850MB MUCH OF TODAY...UNTIL COOLING WITH APPROACH OF THE 850-700MB TROUGH ERODES IT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOWING LAYER UNDER THE INVERSION QUITE MOIST/ SATURATED TODAY. QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE/LIFT IN THE SUB-850MB LAYER...AND CLOUD DEPTH TO PRODUCE ANY DZ THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SFC FRONT THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACH TODAY AND PRESSURES FALL THERE SHOULD BE SOME GENERAL ASCENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. SMALL -DZ CHANCE ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL/WEST PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA THIS MORNING LOOKS GOOD. WILL CONTINUE SMALL DZ CHANCE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS UNTIL THE CAP ERODING 850-700MB COOLING WITH TROUGH AXIS ARRIVES. STRONGER OF THE SFC-700MB QG/FN CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALONG WITH THE STRONGER 500- 300MB PV ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE/MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. BULK OF HI-RES/WRF MODELS DEVELOP A RATHER NARROW LINE OF SHRA/ ISOLATED TSRA ALONG THE FRONT AS IS MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA. APPEARS RAIN CHANCES AT ANY ONE LOCATIONS WILL MAINLY BE A 2 TO 3 HR PERIOD AS THE FRONT PASSES. HAVE TRENDED HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TO MIRROR THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THE FASTER PASSAGE AND NARROW LINE OF SHRA/TSRA...APPEARS MOST RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE 1/10 TO 1/3 INCH RANGE. 200-300 J/KG MUCAPE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LEAVE TSRA MENTION WITH THE FRONT AS ISOLATED FOR NOW. WINDS ALOFT QUITE STRONG...WITH AS MUCH AS 60-70KTS OF 0- 6KM BULK SHEAR WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY TSRA COULD PRODUCE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...SEE SWODY1 FOR MORE DETAILS. MODEL CONSENSUS NOW HAS THE FRONT EAST OF THE FCST AREA BY 06Z...WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO PASS BY 09Z. LIMITED SHRA CHANCES TO THE EAST END OF THE FCST AREA AFTER 06Z AND CARRIED A DRY FCST AREA WIDE AFTER 09Z. AFTER ONE MORE MILD DAY TODAY... STRONG SFC-850MB COLD ADVECTION SENDS 925MB TEMPS INTO THE 0C TO +3C RANGE BY 12Z FRI. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED LATE TONIGHT...BUT TEMPS BY FRI MORNING WILL FEEL MUCH MORE NOVEMBER LIKE. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/ LOWS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 341 PM CST THU NOV 5 2015 FOR FRIDAY THRU SAT NIGHT... MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS. 05.00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF R HGTS TO BRIEFLY RISE FRI IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH/SHORTWAVE...AHEAD OF A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DROP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRI NIGHT. TIGHTENING CONSENSUS FOR THIS TROUGH/WAVE TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST/SOUTH OF THE REGION SAT AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT. FCST CONFIDENCE FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT IS GOOD. FRI/SAT CONTINUE TO SHAPE UP AS A COUPLE DAYS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS THE NORTHWEST SFC-700MB FLOW BRINGS COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION. WEAKER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA FRI...WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AS IT PASSES SAT. 925MB TEMPS IN THE +2C TO +6C RANGE FRI AND 0C TO +4C RANGE SAT. SOME 925-850MB MOISTURE CAUGHT IN CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA FRI. RESULTING CLOUDS WILL LIMITING WARMING/MIXING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE FCST AREA. WITH PASSAGE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING...STRONGER TREND FOR DRYING IN THE 925-850MB LAYER AND MORE OF A PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...WITH MORE DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING. EVEN WITH THE COOLER 925MB TEMPS SAT...SAT HIGHS LOOKING TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRI. COOLEST OF THE LOWER LEVEL AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA SAT MORNING BUT SOME WEST TO NORTHWEST GRADIENT WINDS TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER STIRRED AND LOWS MORE IN THE LOW-MID 30S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NORMALLY COLDER LOW LAYING/SHELTERED AREAS FOR DECOUPLING AND POTENTIAL OF COLDER LOWS. WEAKER GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS TO DECOUPLE DURING THE EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES LATE SAT NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST. SFC WINDS LOOKING TO INCREASE WEST OF THE MS RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT BUT LIKELY TO REMAIN DECOUPLED THRU THE NIGHT ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER....FOR WHAT SHOULD BE THE COLDER OF THE 2 NIGHTS...EVEN AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STARTS TO RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR FRI THRU SAT NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7... MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS OF 05.00Z SHOW IMPROVING CONSENSUS ON RIDGING ALOFT TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY... AHEAD OF THE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. TREND IS NOW FOR A MUCH WEAKER LEAD SHORTWAVE OUT OF THIS TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY MON/MON NIGHT...WITH RIDGING ALOFT TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO TUE. BY WED...MODELS AT ODDS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BRINGS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY INTO THE REGION ON WED WHILE ECMWF SLOWER AND KEEPS SOME RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE REGION INTO MID-WEEK. FCST CONFIDENCE GOOD SUN/MON...TRENDING BELOW AVERAGE BY WED. DRY/WARMING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DOMINATE THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN/MON AS THE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. SUN/MON SHAPING UP TO BE A COUPLE OF MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS WITH TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL...NOT AS FAR ABOVE NORMAL AS THE PAST 3 DAYS...BUT HIGHS IN THE 50S. WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TO PASS MON/MON NIGHT AND MINIMAL SFC REFLECTION OF IT...MON/MON NIGHT TREND DRY ACROSS THE AREA. HGTS RISE FOR TUE BEHIND THIS FEATURE...WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE +7C TO +10C RANGE...FOR WHAT SHOULD BE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH BY WED...BUT SOME RAIN CHANCES TUE NIGHT/WED PER THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OKAY UNTIL THE MODEL DIFFERENCES/DETAILS SORT THEMSELVES OUT. WITH SUN-TUE TRENDING TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR MIXING...TRENDED HIGHS THESE DAYS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. OTHERWISE...THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOWS THRU THE PERIOD AND WED HIGHS LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME. BY MONDAY...FLOW ALOFT IS SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH BRINGS A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. APPEARS THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH DRY WITH PERHAPS A FEW MID CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH IT. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOOK FOR RAIN CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THAT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST WED NOV 4 2015 SKY... STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AND MOVED ACROSS THE TAF SITES. EXPECT IT TO HOLD THERE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. A CAVEAT IS THAT THERE ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS VIA SATELLITE TREND AND MESO MODELS THAT KLSE /PERHAPS KRST/ COULD LOSE A CIG FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE CIGS IN...BUT MONITOR AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. VSBY/WX... FEELING LESS ENTHUSED ON THE -DZ/BR IMPACTS TO KRST/KLSE. THE DEPTH OF THE LOW CIGS SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT/WED...WITH SOME BROAD SCALE THERMODYNAMIC LIFT ACROSS THE TOP OF THE CLOUD. STILL EXPECT SOME DRIZZLE...BUT IT MAY BE A LOT MORE PATCHY IN NATURE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. WITH THAT IN MIND...WILL REMOVE MENTION OF -DZ FOR NOW...ADDING AS/IF NECESSARY. ALSO...NO INDICATIONS VIA LATEST SFC OBS OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM BR. NOT RULING OUT SOME MVFR BR YET...BUT IT SEEMS LESS OF A LIKELIHOOD. THE PCPN THREAT WILL TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE TO -SHRA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN THU EVENING...AND THIS WILL BE THE BETTER CHANCE TO GET WET. AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM CAN/T BE RULED OUT...BUT NOT GOOD ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE IN FORECAST. WINDS... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG/GUSTY FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS...PERSISTING THROUGH THU. WITH THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING WEST-EAST ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 01-05Z WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND REMAIN GUSTY. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RRS LONG TERM....RRS AVIATION.....RIECK  FXUS63 KARX 061742 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1142 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016 FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS PRETTY ON TRACK WITH FEW CHANGES MADE. LATEST 06.00Z FORECAST MODELS AND CONDITIONS SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE WELL ADVERTISED LIGHT SNOW MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. LOW-LEVEL DEFORMATION REGION HAS LEAD TO LOWER CLOUD ACROSS NRN MN AND NRN WI...WITH SOME FZDZ REPORTED EARLIER IN NRN MN. GOES WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE BROAD TROUGH HEADING TOWARD THE REGION OVER KS WITH VARIOUS SMALLER SCALE WAVES ROTATING AROUND IT. LEADING EDGE WAVE ROTATING NORTH AT 09Z INTO NEB WITH A RAIN/SNOW BAND PER RADAR. THIS BAND MATCHES THE 06.08Z RAP 500-700MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE NICELY. 06.00Z RAOBS INDICATE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE FROM 700-925 MB WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20-30C /KDVN...KOAX...KILX/...WITH A MOIST PLUME FROM KINL-KDDC. DRY AIR IS THE KEY TO THE SNOW FORECAST AS WET BULB TEMPS ALOFT ARE ALL BELOW ZERO OVER THE REGION. LATEST RAP TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND AND FORCING /500-700MB QG CONVERGENCE/ BRING IT INTO THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA TO AROUND I-90 BY MID-AFTERNOON. THIS EAST-WEST BAND WILL HAVE ITS BEST CHANCE TO PRECIPITATE WEST OF THE MISS RIVER WHERE THE MOIST PLUME WILL BE ADVECTING EAST. IN WI...A 2KM DRY LAYER WILL NEED TO BE WORKED ON A BIT...SO PRECIPITATION CHANCES REALLY RAMP UP IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. STILL LOOKING LIKE SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN TYPE...WITH POSSIBLY AN HOUR OF A SLEET MIX AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL TO THE WET BULB. FORECAST DOES NOT ACCOUNT FOR THESE SHORT MIX POSSIBILITY. FORCING IS NOT WELL PUT TOGETHER ON THIS STORM...SO LIGHT SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. SOME OF THE FORCING WILL GO INTO SATURATION. A THIN SNOW LAYER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE EVENING COMMUTE...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 52 IN SERN MN AND NERN IA. BY MORNING THE WAVE MOVES OFF THE EAST AND WELL AGREED UPON LOSS OF ICE OCCURS. THIS IS SEEN ALREADY IN THE GOES IR IMAGERY OVER WRN KS AND OK. SO...SOME RESIDUAL WEAK LIFT THURSDAY MORNING AND A MOIST SUPERCOOLED LAYER TO 2 KMS MEANS POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT ICING FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS SEEMS LIKE A MINOR IMPACT IF IT SNOWS FIRST AS ROADS WILL BE TREATED...AND IT WILL FALL ON TOP OF THE SNOW. PROBABLY THE MOST VULNERABLE FOR IMPACT ARE AREAS THAT DONT SEE SNOW. RIGHT NOW...MOST AREAS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE AT LEAST A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 352 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016 THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... THE SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN RAPIDLY THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON IN NERN IA AND SWRN WI FROM THE SOUTH WITH MAINLY RAIN THERE. MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE FROM TONIGHTS SYSTEM...WITH A SECONDARY SURGE IN MOISTURE INTO THE 4-5 G/KG RANGE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER COMING UP TO AROUND 0.70 INCHES. THERE ARE TWO SURGES OF WARM ADVECTION OR ISENTROPIC LIFT /PICK YOUR FAVORITE VERTICAL COORDINATE!/...THE ONSET THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A BIT MORE GOING FOR IT DYNAMICALLY THAN TONIGHTS...BUT STILL DECAYING QVECTOR CONVERGENCE ALOFT WITH THE UPPER WAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST. THERMAL PROFILES HAVE A CONSISTENT ISOTHERMAL LAYER IN THE LOWEST 2KM WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO REFLECT RA/SN /IF IT IS 1C AT SURFACE...IT WILL BE AT 2KMS...WHICH IS RAIN/. NAM ENVIRONMENT HAS AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER BUT HAVE TAKEN THAT AS AN OUTLIER BASED ON ITS COLD BIAS IN 2M TEMPERATURE OVER SNOW PACK. YOU REMOVE THAT 2M COLD T AND THE SOUNDING BECOMES ISOTHERMAL MUCH LIKE GFS SOLUTIONS. SO...HAVE LOWERED THE SN/RA THRESHOLD TO 32/34F...RESPECTIVELY AND REMOVED THE WINTRY MIX OF SLEET. THUS...THE SNOW ACCUMULATION HAS EVERYTHING TO DO WITH THE LIFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE LIFT SEEMS TO BE MOST FOCUSED ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH PRE- CYCLONE AND A BIT OF DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS IN THE LOWER LEVELS FROM ROUGHLY KMCW-KMDZ. HAVE LIFTED THE SNOW RATIOS TO ABOUT 9-10 TO 1 ON THAT AXIS DUE TO LIFT. IT IS THE UNION OF COLD ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND THE LIFT...TO GIVE A WET 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW FRIDAY 12 AM TO 12 NOON...LESSER IN RIVER VALLEYS /WARMER/. THE MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE AFFECTED...BUT ROADS MAY BE WARM ENOUGH TO NOT BE A BIG DEAL. 06.03Z SREF ROAD ICE/SNOW PRODUCT /VIA SPC/ SHOWS NO STRONG ACCUMULATION SIGNAL. BETTER SIGNAL IS TONIGHT. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... A BURST OF WINTER! FLOW REALLY CONSOLIDATES NICELY OVER THE WEEKEND AND A DEEP NORTH AMERICAN LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED. THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NEED WIND CHILL ADVISORIES IN NORTH-CENTRAL WI AND WEST OF THE MISS RIVER BASED ON FORECAST APPARENT TEMPERATURE. REINFORCING SHOT OF POSSIBLY COLDER AIR THEN COMES IN MID-WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE GET A BREAK FROM THESE PRECIPITATION TYPE SYSTEMS...WHICH ARE A PUZZLE WRAPPED IN A RIDDLE TO FIGURE OUT AT && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY NOON) ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016 DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR INITIALLY HOLDING OVER THE AREA AT MID DAY...BUT LOWER MOISTURE/CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO COVER MOST AREAS WEST OF THE MS RIVER BY MID AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD EAST OF THE MS RIVER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE/CLOUDS...AND SOME MVFR VSBYS -SN THEN ON TRACK TO SPREAD INTO KRST AROUND 23Z... SPREADING SLOWLY EAST AND INTO THE KLSE AREA AROUND 03Z. IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -SN/BR THEN EXPECTED A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE -SN INITIALLY ARRIVES AS THE LOWEST LEVELS GRADUALLY SATURATE. BY LATER TONIGHT AND FOR THU MORNING...THE CLOUD DEPTH BECOMES SHALLOWER AND ICE CRYSTALS ARE LOST IN THE CLOUDS. ANY PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AND THRU THU MORNING WOULD BE -FZDZ/-DZ DEPENDING ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP. LOWER LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AFTER 06Z CONTINUES TO PULL MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS WELL...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 30S OVER THE SNOW COVER LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING...WHICH SPELLS BR/FG. IFR CIGS AND MAINLY IFR VSBYS IN BR EXPECTED WITH THE -DZ/-FZDZ LATE TONIGHT/ THU MORNING...LOWEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR VSBYS 1/2SM OR LESS IN FG AT SITES LIKE KRST THU MORNING BUT LEFT TAF THERE AS 1SM -FZDZ/-DZ BR FOR NOW. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT LONG TERM....BAUMGARDT AVIATION.....RRS  FXUS63 KARX 062008 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WORKING WITH A BROAD FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO CONTINUE THE SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN IA/SOUTHERN MN INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AT MID AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS/PCPN WERE WORKING TO KEEP INSTABILITY IN CHECK...FOR THE MOMENT. MESSY CONVECTIVE SCENARIO SETTING UP WITH A COUPLE MAIN FOCUSES. FIRST...THE ONGOING PCPN IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN A REGION OF BROAD MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED...RESULTING IN SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE BUT ADVANCE NORTHEAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE. NEXT...AND LIKELY THE MAIN ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS...WILL COME WITH A COLD FRONT ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST. NOT MUCH GOING ON ALONG THE BOUNDARY YET...WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND IN THE SUBSIDENT PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...ALTHOUGH A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS DID DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF CLEARING AROUND A SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN MN. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN...LINKS UP WITH THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO IT...AND A RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FROM NEB. RIBBON OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES. HRRR/HOPWRF MESO MODELS FIRE ALONG THIS SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE FRONT AROUND 02Z OR SO...MOSTLY IN NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI TO THE SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN DESTABILIZATION IN THE POCKETS OF CLEARING AMONGST THE CURRENT SHOWERS/CLOUDS...WITH MORE CLOUD FREE ATMOSPHERE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...SHOULD HELP IN THIS MATTER. RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS POINT TO A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF CAPE...ALTHOUGH MORE ON THE SKINNY SIDE. NOT SURE IF VIGOROUS/STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL RESULT...SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. DEEPEST/STRONGEST WIND SHEAR IS DISPLACED WEST/NORTH OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. WHAT IS THERE IS MOSTLY IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER...ROUGHLY 20-30 KTS. RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER PER RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS...WITH INVERTED-V HELPING TO SUPPORT STRONGER WIND GUSTS. SEE SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...WITH 6 TO 10 PM LOOKING LIKE THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE THREAT TURNS TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THE SECOND EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT REGION OVER IA LATER THIS EVENING. PWS NEAR 2 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 4 KFT FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TAKE UP A MOSTLY WEST-EAST ORIENTATION OVER IA LATER MONDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REFOCUSES INTO AND ACROSS THE BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT...NOSING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN IA...WITH A SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. GOOD SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT AROUND THE FRONT...PER NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING X- SECTION. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THERE TOO...VIA THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300 MB JET STREAK. UPWARDS OF 3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AT 00Z TUE IN THE GFS/NAM. AMPLE FORCING/LIFT FOR STORM/SHOWER GENERATION...AND ALL THE MODELS SAY JUST THAT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR FUEL WITH PWS NEAR 2 INCHES OVER IA AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 4 KFT IN THE SAME AREA. EXPECT EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...AND WITH A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION OF THE FOCUSING SFC BOUNDARY...TRAINING STORMS LOOK LIKELY. ALL THAT SAID...THE STRONGER FORCING/DEEPER MOISTURE LIES JUST SOUTH OF LOCAL AREA...AND AT LEAST FOR NOW...SO WILL THE GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. RAIN DOES LOOK LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90 AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PCPN WOULD CONTINUE INTO TUE MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH LATER ON TUE. THE SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GET SOME PUSH SOUTH/EAST WHILE A 500 MB TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. THE NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL FAVOR THIS PUSH. HOWEVER...THE GFS HANGS IT A BIT MORE NORTH...AND FIRES ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND/NORTH OF IT. THOSE WOULD IMPACT NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI. THE GFS IS THE ODD MODEL OUT THIS GO AROUND...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD A MORE CONSENSUS/DRIER OUTCOME FOR NOW. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY GIVES WAY TO NORTHWEST FLOW/TROUGH. SAY GOODBYE TO THE SUMMER WARMTH AND HELLO TO FALL CONDITIONS...EVEN BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. 850 MB TEMPS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS PROGGED TO DROP FROM AROUND 20 C FROM 00Z MON...TO 6-7 C BY 00Z SAT. NAEFS 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES RANGE FROM -1 TO -1 1/2. A FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S APPEAR LIKELY AT THE MOMENT...ALONG WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S. ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD SWING FROM THIS CURRENT WEEKEND/S WARMTH. AS FOR RAIN POTENTIAL...MODELS FAVORING DRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SOME RIPPLES IN THE FLOW...BUT CURRENT TRENDS KEEP THEM NORTH OR WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TADS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN PEP 6 2015 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z AT KLSE AND BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z AT KRST. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. LOOK FOR THE SHOWER AND STORMS TO TAPER OFF AND SHIFT SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT EDGES SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION.....WETENKAMP  FXUS63 KARX 062101 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 301 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016 MESSY WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN IA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING PRECIPITATION EXPANDING AHEAD OF THIS WAVE FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO IA AND SOUTHERN WI. GROUND OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MAINLY A MIXTURE OF DRIZZLE/SNOW ACROSS THAT AREA. WILL BE WATCHING THAT MID-LEVEL LOW LIFT NORTHEAST INTO/THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING/DAMPENING OUT. RAP SHOWS THAT THE P- TYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW WITH INCREASING COLUMN SATURAION WITH ICE PRESENT IN CLOUD. HOWEVER...THINGS COULD GET TRICKY FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH LOSS OF ICE IN CLOUD AND SOME LINGERING LIFT THROUGH THIS CLOUD. IF THERE IS INDEED TOTAL ICE LOSS...COULD BE A BOUT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OTHERWISE...COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE SOME FOG MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90 WITH WARMING/INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS LIKE A SUB-HEADLINE EVENT...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE WEATHER AS IT EVOLVES. FOR THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE/STRATUS FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS WEAK LIFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE SUPER-COOLED/ICE-LESS CLOUD LAYER. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN BELOW 32 IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...ROADS SHOULD BE TREATED ENOUGH FOR MINIMAL TRAVEL IMPACT. MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP UP IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONGER WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE 30S...LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW MIX SETTING UP. AS SUCH...NOT EXPECTING ANY APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...PERHAPS A DUSTING/TENTH OF AN INCH IN SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. IN ADDITION...LOOKS LIKE FOG WILL BE INCREASING AS WELL AS THIS WARMING/MOIST AIR RIDES OVER THE EXISTING COLD SNOW PACK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN MO BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDING TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORING MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS MAINLY FROM SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016 FRIDAY WILL SEE THE LOW MOVE THROUGH EASTERN WI. LATEST MODELS/THINKING IS THAT MAINLY RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACROSS THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. LOOK FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY NOT BUDGING MUCH FROM THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLDER ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ALONG WITH A FAIRLY STILL WIND IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS AROU7ND 25 MPH. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MINUS 15 TO MINUS 25 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR POTENTIAL WINDCHILL HEADLINES ACROSS THAT AREA. MAIN STORY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE ARCTIC AIRMASS PAYING US A VISIT. HIGHS START OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SUNDAY...MODERATING SOME INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS ABOVE ZERO MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY NOON) ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016 DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR INITIALLY HOLDING OVER THE AREA AT MID DAY...BUT LOWER MOISTURE/CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO COVER MOST AREAS WEST OF THE MS RIVER BY MID AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD EAST OF THE MS RIVER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE/CLOUDS...AND SOME MVFR VSBYS -SN THEN ON TRACK TO SPREAD INTO KRST AROUND 23Z... SPREADING SLOWLY EAST AND INTO THE KLSE AREA AROUND 03Z. IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -SN/BR THEN EXPECTED A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE -SN INITIALLY ARRIVES AS THE LOWEST LEVELS GRADUALLY SATURATE. BY LATER TONIGHT AND FOR THU MORNING...THE CLOUD DEPTH BECOMES SHALLOWER AND ICE CRYSTALS ARE LOST IN THE CLOUDS. ANY PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AND THRU THU MORNING WOULD BE -FZDZ/-DZ DEPENDING ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP. LOWER LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AFTER 06Z CONTINUES TO PULL MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS WELL...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 30S OVER THE SNOW COVER LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING...WHICH SPELLS BR/FG. IFR CIGS AND MAINLY IFR VSBYS IN BR EXPECTED WITH THE -DZ/-FZDZ LATE TONIGHT/ THU MORNING...LOWEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR VSBYS 1/2SM OR LESS IN FG AT SITES LIKE KRST THU MORNING BUT LEFT TAF THERE AS 1SM -FZDZ/-DZ BR FOR NOW. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM....DAS AVIATION.....RRS  FXUS63 KARX 062324 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 624 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WORKING WITH A BROAD FETCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO CONTINUE THE SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN IA/SOUTHERN MN INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AT MID AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS/PCPN WERE WORKING TO KEEP INSTABILITY IN CHECK...FOR THE MOMENT. MESSY CONVECTIVE SCENARIO SETTING UP WITH A COUPLE MAIN FOCUSES. FIRST...THE ONGOING PCPN IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN A REGION OF BROAD MOISTURE TRANSPORT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED...RESULTING IN SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE BUT ADVANCE NORTHEAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE. NEXT...AND LIKELY THE MAIN ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS...WILL COME WITH A COLD FRONT ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST. NOT MUCH GOING ON ALONG THE BOUNDARY YET...WEAKLY CONVERGENT AND IN THE SUBSIDENT PORTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET...ALTHOUGH A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS DID DEVELOP IN AN AREA OF CLEARING AROUND A SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN MN. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN...LINKS UP WITH THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO IT...AND A RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FROM NEB. RIBBON OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES. HRRR/HOPWRF MESO MODELS FIRE ALONG THIS SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE FRONT AROUND 02Z OR SO...MOSTLY IN NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI TO THE SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN DESTABILIZATION IN THE POCKETS OF CLEARING AMONGST THE CURRENT SHOWERS/CLOUDS...WITH MORE CLOUD FREE ATMOSPHERE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...SHOULD HELP IN THIS MATTER. RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS POINT TO A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF CAPE...ALTHOUGH MORE ON THE SKINNY SIDE. NOT SURE IF VIGOROUS/STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL RESULT...SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. DEEPEST/STRONGEST WIND SHEAR IS DISPLACED WEST/NORTH OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. WHAT IS THERE IS MOSTLY IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER...ROUGHLY 20-30 KTS. RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER PER RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS...WITH INVERTED-V HELPING TO SUPPORT STRONGER WIND GUSTS. SEE SOME THREAT FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...WITH 6 TO 10 PM LOOKING LIKE THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THE THREAT TURNS TO HEAVY RAIN WITH THE SECOND EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT REGION OVER IA LATER THIS EVENING. PWS NEAR 2 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 4 KFT FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TAKE UP A MOSTLY WEST-EAST ORIENTATION OVER IA LATER MONDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REFOCUSES INTO AND ACROSS THE BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT...NOSING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN IA...WITH A SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. GOOD SLOPING FRONTOGENETIC LIFT AROUND THE FRONT...PER NORTH-SOUTH RUNNING X- SECTION. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THERE TOO...VIA THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300 MB JET STREAK. UPWARDS OF 3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AT 00Z TUE IN THE GFS/NAM. AMPLE FORCING/LIFT FOR STORM/SHOWER GENERATION...AND ALL THE MODELS SAY JUST THAT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR FUEL WITH PWS NEAR 2 INCHES OVER IA AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 4 KFT IN THE SAME AREA. EXPECT EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS...AND WITH A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION OF THE FOCUSING SFC BOUNDARY...TRAINING STORMS LOOK LIKELY. ALL THAT SAID...THE STRONGER FORCING/DEEPER MOISTURE LIES JUST SOUTH OF LOCAL AREA...AND AT LEAST FOR NOW...SO WILL THE GREATER THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN. RAIN DOES LOOK LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-90 AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PCPN WOULD CONTINUE INTO TUE MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH LATER ON TUE. THE SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GET SOME PUSH SOUTH/EAST WHILE A 500 MB TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. THE NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL FAVOR THIS PUSH. HOWEVER...THE GFS HANGS IT A BIT MORE NORTH...AND FIRES ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND/NORTH OF IT. THOSE WOULD IMPACT NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI. THE GFS IS THE ODD MODEL OUT THIS GO AROUND...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD A MORE CONSENSUS/DRIER OUTCOME FOR NOW. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FINALLY GIVES WAY TO NORTHWEST FLOW/TROUGH. SAY GOODBYE TO THE SUMMER WARMTH AND HELLO TO FALL CONDITIONS...EVEN BELOW NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. 850 MB TEMPS IN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS PROGGED TO DROP FROM AROUND 20 C FROM 00Z MON...TO 6-7 C BY 00Z SAT. NAEFS 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES RANGE FROM -1 TO -1 1/2. A FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S APPEAR LIKELY AT THE MOMENT...ALONG WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S. ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD SWING FROM THIS CURRENT WEEKEND/S WARMTH. AS FOR RAIN POTENTIAL...MODELS FAVORING DRY FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. SOME RIPPLES IN THE FLOW...BUT CURRENT TRENDS KEEP THEM NORTH OR WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE REGION. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO EXPAND TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS IOWA AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST. NONE OF THE HI-RES MODELS ARE DOING A REAL GOOD JOB WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION BUT THE 06.22Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS AND SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS IN KRST THROUGH ABOUT 02Z AND 04Z IN KLSE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND SWING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND MAY ALLOW SKIES TO SCATTER OUT. IF THIS HAPPENS THERE COULD BE COME FOG THAT FORMS WITH A MOST BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE RECENT RAINS AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS AT BOTH SITES. THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD THEN HAVE VFR CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION...04  FXUS63 KARX 070750 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 250 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION TRAVERSING THE REGION AT THE MOMENT. INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE HOW TO HANDLE POPS AS IT DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. BUT THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ALONG IT AND PERHAPS IMPACT THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTED IN A NARROW BAND OF FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS BUFFALO/TREMPEALEAU/JACKSON/CLARK COUNTIES. HEADLINES CONTINUE THERE UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE VERY COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE BOUNDARY... WITH PW NEAR 2+ INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH AROUND 4KFT RESULTING IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION. FLOOD WATCHES POSTED JUST TO THE SOUTH IN THE HEART OF THIS ENVIRONMENT. WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN RISK THUS SITUATED THERE...AND GIVEN THE FACT THAT OUR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE DRY SIDE FOR THE MOST PART... DO NOT FEEL A WATCH IS NEEDED THIS FAR NORTH. BUT WILL BEAR WATCHING DEPENDING ON FRONTAL POSITION AND TRENDS. THERE WILL BE AMPLE INSTABILITY AGAIN AVAILABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TRIGGER IN A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND ASSISTANCE FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK ZIPPING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. GFS/ECMWF IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE BULK OF THE RAIN AREA OVER IA/IL. BUT NAM MUCH FURTHER NORTH. THIS IS A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHERE THE GFS WAS FURTHER NORTH AND NAM SIDED WITH THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THE DEEPER COOL AIR WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 THE CLOSED CIRCULATION AND LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA BY MID WEEK...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW ALOFT... BUT ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPS INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH BY THURSDAY...AMPLIFYING THE UPPER PATTERN AND SENDING A PUSH OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT INVADES ON THURSDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH IN HOW THIS EVOLVES. CHANCE POPS LOOK GOOD AT THIS POINT. SIGNIFICANT POOL OF COOLER AIR LOOKS POISED TO ARRIVE...AND TEMPERATURES MAY BECOME MORE OF A FOCUS LATE IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015 THE BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO MAKE STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS AND WILL BE PAST KRST BY 06Z. GIVEN THE CURRENT MOVEMENT...EXPECT THAT THE ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR KLSE AROUND 07Z OR SO. THE COLD FRONT IS LAGGING BEHIND THE CONVECTION AND THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL COME THROUGH AND SWING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. ONCE IT DOES GO THROUGH THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME FOG AS PLENTY OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THINK THE WINDS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP ANY FOG FROM GETTING VERY DENSE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL COME OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND INTERACT WITH THE FRONT TO FORM ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR NORTH THIS WILL BE. THE 07.00Z NAM WANTS TO BRING THIS BACK INTO BOTH TAF SITES BY THE MIDDLE OF MONDAY EVENING WHILE THE 06.12Z HI-RES ARW KEEPS EVERYTHING WELL SOUTH ACROSS IOWA AND THE 06.12Z HI-RES NMM AND 07.00Z CR-NAM NEST INDICATE IT COULD MAKE IT BACK TO THE TAF SITES BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 08.06Z. WITH ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL HONOR THE FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH NAM WITH A VCSH BY MID EVENING FOR BOTH SITES. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...04  FXUS63 KARX 072001 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 305 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 A WARM FRONT WAS HUNG UP OVER SOUTHERN IA...STRETCHING INTO SOUTHERN WI. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...PUSHING INTO AND ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. A LOFT...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300 MB JET STREAK WILL ENHANCE THE AVAILABLE LIFT. HIGH PWS OF 2 INCHES...A +2 ANOMALY VIA NAEFS...WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4 KFT...AROUND AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. A RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO SLIDE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO ACROSS THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT. ALL THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BLOSSOMING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN. MESO MODELS TRENDS FAVOR KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PCPN THREAT ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90...WITH THE HEAVY RAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO IOWA. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND EXPECT PCPN TO LINGER ACROSS THE EAST TUE MORNING. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 DOWNTURN IN THE TEMPERATURES AS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT FROM RIDGING TO TROUGH/NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. 850 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP FROM 18 C AT 00Z TUE TO 5 C BY 00Z SAT. NAEFS 850 MB TEMP ANOMALIES HOVER NEAR -1 THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DAY OR TWO WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED - WITH FRI/SAT MORNING LOOKING LIKE THE COOLEST PERIOD. VARIOUS RIPPLES WILL MOVE ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS TAKING THEM MOSTLY NORTH/SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...OR WEAKENING THEM AS THEY MOVED IN. LAST RUN OR TWO THEY HAVE CHANGED THEIR TUNE. THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF ALL SLIDE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THU/FRI. THAT AND A RELATED SFC BOUNDARY COULD SPARK SHOWERS/STORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY...SO IF PCPN DEVELOPS...MORE ON THE SHOWER THAN THUNDERSTORM SIDE. SHOWERS COULD LINGER/REDEVELOP ON FRIDAY IN WRAP AROUND REGION OF THE SFC LOW/FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSES...MORE SO ACROSS NORTHERN WI. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2015 STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WITH CLOUD BASES IN THE 1000-3000 FT RANGE AT KRST AND 1500 TO 3000 FT RANGE AT KLSE. PLAN ON THIS DECK BECOMING BROKEN OR POSSIBLY SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TAF SITES. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO IMPACT KRST STARTING AROUND 09Z AND KLSE AROUND 10Z. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION.....WETENKAMP  FXUS63 KARX 150842 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 342 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015 MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LATER TONIGHT... TEMPERATURES. 06Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD A WEAK BUT BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION FROM LK SUPERIOR TO IA AND MO. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT WERE PRODUCING SOME CLOUDS/SCT SHRA IN NORTHERN MN. UNDER/EAST OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW BRINGING DRIER/COOLER AIR TO MUCH OF WI/SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. EARLY MORNING TEMPS RANGED FROM THE 40S IN NORTHEAST WI TO THE LOW/MID 70S IN SOUTHWEST IA WHERE THE IMPACTS OF THE HIGH HAVE YET TO REACH. 15.00Z MODELS INITIALIZED QUITE WELL. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY...BEING PUSHED EAST BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY TONIGHT THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS ALREADY MOVING INTO/ACROSS THE REGION...AHEAD OF MORE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY COMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OVERALL TREND IS FASTER/STRONGER WITH THESE FEATURES THRU THE FLOW LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. GIVEN THE REASONABLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS... SHORT TERM FCST CONFIDENCES IS GOOD THIS CYCLE. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE NORTHERN MN FORCING WEAKENS/STAYS NORTH THIS MORNING AS THE 850-700MB RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST INTO/ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES FROM WI TO MI THRU THE DAY. MODELS RATHER CONSISTENT KEEPING THE 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND MAIN MOISTURE/CAPE AXIS WEST OF I-35 THRU THE DAY. 850MB LOW LEVEL JET EVEN FURTHER WEST OUT NEAR I-29 AT 00Z THU. THUS EVEN WITH THE FASTER TREND OF THE MODELS WITH THE SHORTWAVES BY 00Z THU...NOT SURE WHY MODELS ARE SO QUICK TO SPREAD SHRA/TSRA INTO THE WEST END OF THE FCST AREA BY 00Z THU. GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE/FORCING....LEFT TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING DRY. A MORE COMFORTABLE MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY DAY FOR THE AREA WITH MIXED 925MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH APPROACH/PASSAGE OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TONIGHT... LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING/LIFT QUICKLY TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS MN/IA INTO WI TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE TRANSPORT/THETA-E CONVERGENCE...AND IS POINTED INTO THE FCST AREA BY 12Z THU. THIS WITH INCREASING DIVERGENCE/LIFT ALOFT. RAISED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES TO 60-90 PERCENT OVER THE WEST/ NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FCST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE FASTER SHORTWAVE AND INCREASE OF LOWER LEVEL FORCING. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE HIGHS/LOWS FOR TODAY/TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015 MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR THU THRU FRI NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT THU INTO THU EVENING...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES AGAIN FRI NIGHT...TEMPERATURES. MODEL RUNS 15.00Z IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN MN THU THEN PASS QUICKLY EAST OF THE REGION BY 12Z FRI. IMPROVING SIGNAL FOR SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRI...AHEAD OF YET MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING THRU THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AMPLIFYING TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS. TREND IS GENERALLY STRONGER WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS IN THE THU THRU FRI NIGHT PERIOD. FCST CONFIDENCE THIS PERIOD IS GENERALLY GOOD THIS CYCLE. THU STARTS OUT WITH STRONG LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING SPREADING INTO/ACROSS THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...SURPRISING AMOUNT OF SPREAD NORTH TO SOUTH ON WHERE MODELS PLACE THE STRONGER OF THE FORCING/LIFT/CONVERGENCE...AND RESULTING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX/HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL. NAM FURTHEST NORTH...ECMWF FURTHEST SOUTH...AND HAVE INCREASED THEIR DIFFERENCES SINCE THE 14.12Z/14.18Z RUNS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IT WILL RAIN ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON THU...BUT LOWER ON HOW MUCH RAIN MAY FALL WHERE. PW VALUES IN THE 2 INCH RANGE BY LATE TONIGHT AND FOR THU...WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN THE 4KM RANGE. POTENTIAL FOR DEEP WARM RAIN PROCESS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS LATE TONIGHT/THU. WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVES...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE. FAVORED A COMPROMISE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TRACKING ACROSS THE FCST AREA THU...CENTERED ON ABOUT I-90...WITH RAIN TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES APPEARING LIKELY. 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THE 2 TO 2.8 INCH RANGE WITH 3HR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THE 2.5 TO 3.5 INCH RANGE...SO NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH LATE TONIGHT THRU THU FOR NOW. GIVEN THE TIMING...THE WARM CLOUD DEPTH AND COMPLEX LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED...MAIN SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO BE THE HEAVY RAINS WITH MINIMAL HAIL OR WIND THREATS. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND THE PRECIP TO LIMIT WARMING ON THU...WITH MAIN CAPE POOL AND BULK OF BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. IF NAM ENDS UP MORE CORRECT WITH MORE OF A WARM SECTOR INTO THE AREA THU AFTERNOON...MAY BE MORE THAN A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH TSRA THU AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE NORTH-SOUTH CONVECTION LOCATION DIFFERENCES ON THU...MARGINAL SEVERE RISK PER SWODY2 OKAY FOR NOW. MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND SFC LOW PASS THU EVENING...TAKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE/FORCING/LIFT EAST OF THE FCST AREA. CONTINUED TO TREND FCST TOWARD DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LIGHT WINDS...DECREASING CLOUDS AND THE RAINS EXPECTED THU SET THE STAGE FOR FOG LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION TO ENTIRE AREA FOR LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. SOME OF THIS MAY END UP LOCALLY DENSE BUT PLENTY OF TIME TO DETAIL THAT. DRY TREND FOR FRI LOOKS GOOD WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION. PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE PLAINS QUICKLY SPREADING A ROUND OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SHRA/TSRA CHANCES BACK INTO THE AREA FOR FRI NIGHT. TRENDED TOWARD COOLER OF GUIDANCE HIGHS THU THEN USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT. FOR SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7... MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF 15.00Z IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON SAT FOR TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE CONUS AND RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...LEAVING THE UPPER MIDWEST UNDER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK WAVES RIPPING THRU THIS FLOW. REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST CONUS TROUGH ENERGY TO COME EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN...MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN NIGHT. TREND OF THIS MODEL SET FAVORS RISING HGTS OR SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION MON WITH FALLING HGTS BY TUE. HOWEVER...BETWEEN MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY BY MON/TUE IS LESS THAN DESIRABLE. FCST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE SAT/SUN THEN BELOW AVERAGE MON/TUE. WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SAT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHORTWAVES TO BE RIPPLING THRU THIS FLOW AND A WARM...MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...CONSENSUS 20-40 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR SAT REASONABLE. MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SAT NIGHT THEN INTO THE REGION SUN SPREADS AN INCREASING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT/SUN. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LOOKING TO CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED SIGNAL FOR A RATHER WARM LOW LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION SAT...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. AIRMASS COOLS A BIT FOR SUN...BUT SUNDAY HIGHS ALSO LIKELY TO BE TEMPERED BY MORE CLOUDS. MODEL CONSENSUS OF DRIER FOR MON/TUE REASONABLE FOR NOW AS HIGH PRESSURE WOULD BUILD INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC THRU MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WOULD PASS SUN NIGHT. GIVEN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AT BEST IN THE DAY 4- 7 PERIOD...STAYED WITH THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS OF HIGHS/LOWS THRU THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG IN SOME OF THE SMALLER RIVER VALLEYS. WITH UPPER RIDGE JUST WEST OF AREA...ENJOYING MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE SLIDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES SO EXPECT WINDS...ALBEIT LIGHT...TO CONTINUE TO VEER OVERNIGHT. LOTS OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS UPSTREAM TOPPING RIDGE AND SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO AREA LATER WEDNESDAY BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS EVEN IF CEILINGS DEVELOP. CONVECTION CHANCES INCREASE GOING INTO THURSDAY.| && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RRS LONG TERM....RRS AVIATION.....TJS  FXUS63 KARX 160849 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 349 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...MAINLY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LATEST RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTCENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS ACTIVITY WAS GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE RIGHT FLANK OF INCREASING 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY THIS MORNING AS 850 MB WINDS DIMINISH. IT APPEARS WE WILL THEN SEE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS TONIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A QUIET DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL BE BREEZY HOWEVER WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT STAYING IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. IT WON/T BE AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 MPH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEW POINTS TODAY...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS GULF MOISTURE EDGES IN FROM THE WEST. A PLUME OF LOWER TO MID 60 DEW POINTS WERE POSITIONED ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. WE SHOULD SEE THESE DEW POINTS WORK EAST WITH TIME AND THIS WILL PLAY INTO TONIGHTS FORECAST AS THIS MOIST AIRMASS ADVECTS IN. BY TONIGHT...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE TO AROUND 4000 METERS WHILE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1.8 INCHES. STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO ERUPT ON THE NOSE OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE STRONGER CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THESE AREAS...BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP N THE EASTERN GRADIENT OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE RATHER EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2015 A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIG QUESTION ON THURSDAY IS WHETHER WE WOULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS . IF STORMS ARE ONGOING IN THE MORNING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY THE STORMS WOULD MAINLY BRING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HAIL POTENTIAL. THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AS EXPECTED DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE CONVECTION IS ROLLING THROUGH THEN RAMPS UP DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS EASTERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS WHICH MAY FOCUS THE STRONGER CONVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS. DETAILS SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. THE FRONT THEN LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH NORTHWEST ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI ON FRIDAY AS A FAST MOVING TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY. DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THEN LOOKS TO BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WE COULD SEE SOME VALLEY FOG SUNDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEYS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2015 THERE WILL BE A BROKEN 15K DECK THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD AT BOTH TAF SITES. SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP LONG TERM...WETENKAMP AVIATION...BOYNE  FXUS63 KARX 202021 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 215 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 215 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THROUGH WI THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...LEADING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TO ACROSS IL BY 12Z MON. SATURATION INCREASES TONIGHT FROM THE BOTTOM UP. WITH NO ICE IN THE CLOUD...THE THERMODYNAMICS THAT DON/T GO INTO SATURATION WILL GO INTO DRIZZLE/RAIN PRODUCTION. ALTHOUGH AIR TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...ROAD TEMPS MAY NOT. SEE SOME THREAT FOR FREEZING ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS THIS EVENING AS A RESULT. LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM THE PCPN COULD RESULT IN A 1-2 DEGREE BUMP UP IN ROAD TEMPS LATER TONIGHT...MINIMIZING THE FREEZING THREAT. THE LOW LIFTS INTO MICHIGAN LATER MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE BANDS OF PCPN ALSO EXITING INTO EASTERN WI BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST THE PCPN COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BEFORE MOVING OFF MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ITS NOT A GIVEN THAT BY THE TIME THE CLOUD HOLDS ICE THERE WILL BE FORCING FOR PCPN PRODUCTION. SEE A SHORT WINDOW FOR SNOW...BUT MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. LATER MONDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THERE COULD BE WEAK FRONTOGENETIC LIFT/THERMODYNAMICS THROUGH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL SATURATION THAT DRIZZLE WOULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. HAVE ADDED SOME MENTION IN THE EAST FOR NOW. SEEMS LIKE SMALL/PATCHY THREAT AT THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 215 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AS BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. STRONGER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPINS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT LOOKS TO KEEP THE BULK OF ITS FORCING NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. GOOD LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS/MOISTURE LEADS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE REGION...WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX ENHANCING THE AVAILABLE LIFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND COMPARABLE WITH TRACKING THIS NEXT PCPN MAKER OVER THE REGION...KEEPING THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FROM EASTERN IA/WESTERN WI TO THE EAST. THEY HAVE ALSO KEPT IT UNSEASONABLY WARM...RESULTING IN RAIN/DRIZZLE AS THE DOMINANT PCPN TYPE. SOME SUGGESTION THAT SNOW COULD MIX IN ON THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT...BUT ITS NOT CERTAIN THE DEPTH OF THE CLOUD OR THAT FORCING WOULD SUPPORT IT. THAT SAID...THE GFS HAS FLIP-FLOPPED WITH PRODUCING A DEFORMATION BAND WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE SFC LOW...BUT ITS BACK WITH THE 12Z RUN...AND THE LATEST EC HAS ALSO TRENDED THIS WAY. ENOUGH COLD AIR WITHIN THIS POTENTIAL BAND THAT A STRIP OF SNOW WOULD BE LIKELY. EVEN THEN...CURRENT GFS/EC SOLUTION WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS FROM NORTHWEST IA INTO EAST CENTRAL MN/NORTHWEST WI - MOSTLY AWAY FROM THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. IN THIS SCENARIO...WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAS SOME HOPE FOR A WHITE XMAS. STILL LOOKS UNLIKELY TO THE EAST. MODELS START STRAYING FROM EACH OTHER FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT WILL ALL PLAY OUT. BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD BRING SOME PCPN CHANCES HERE AND THERE...BUT TIMING/LOCATION UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT SNOW WOULD BE IN THE PICTURE...IF CLOUD DEPTH HARBORS SOME ICE. LETTING THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION COVER ANY CHANCES FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 DIFFICULT DETAILS AHEAD AS AREA LIKELY TO TRANSITION FROM VFR CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR IN NEXT 12 HOURS. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH IN THIS TREND OCCURRING BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE WHEN IT COMES TO EXACT TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LEAD TO LARGE SCALE UPGLIDE AND SATURATION HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SOME STRATUS ADVECT NORTHWARD AND WILL THIS EXPLOSIVELY GROW INTO REGION BY EARLY EVENING SUSPECT. GIVEN UPLIFT COULD SEE LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAK OUT WITH THIS AND EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY DRIZZLE. BUT AS WAVE PASSES AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT...COULD SEE BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO MIX BUT UNCLEAR HOW MUCH IMPACT THAT WILL HAVE AS LIFT DECREASES QUICKLY. FOR NOW WILL FOCUS MORE ON PRECIPITATION AND RELATED CEILINGS / VISIBILITIES AHEAD OF WAVE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION.....SHEA  FXUS63 KARX 202330 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 530 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 215 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THROUGH WI THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...LEADING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TO ACROSS IL BY 12Z MON. SATURATION INCREASES TONIGHT FROM THE BOTTOM UP. WITH NO ICE IN THE CLOUD...THE THERMODYNAMICS THAT DON/T GO INTO SATURATION WILL GO INTO DRIZZLE/RAIN PRODUCTION. ALTHOUGH AIR TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...ROAD TEMPS MAY NOT. SEE SOME THREAT FOR FREEZING ON UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS THIS EVENING AS A RESULT. LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM THE PRECIPITATION COULD RESULT IN A 1-2 DEGREE BUMP UP IN ROAD TEMPS LATER TONIGHT...MINIMIZING THE FREEZING THREAT. THE LOW LIFTS INTO MICHIGAN LATER MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ALSO EXITING INTO EASTERN WI BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BEFORE MOVING OFF MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ITS NOT A GIVEN THAT BY THE TIME THE CLOUD HOLDS ICE THERE WILL BE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. SEE A SHORT WINDOW FOR SNOW...BUT MORE LIKELY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. LATER MONDAY NIGHT...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THERE COULD BE WEAK FRONTOGENETIC LIFT/THERMODYNAMICS THROUGH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL SATURATION THAT DRIZZLE WOULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. HAVE ADDED SOME MENTION IN THE EAST FOR NOW. SEEMS LIKE SMALL/PATCHY THREAT AT THIS TIME. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 215 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY AS BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. STRONGER PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPINS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...BUT LOOKS TO KEEP THE BULK OF ITS FORCING NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. GOOD LOW LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS/MOISTURE LEADS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY INTO THE REGION...WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET MAX ENHANCING THE AVAILABLE LIFT. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND COMPARABLE WITH TRACKING THIS NEXT PRECIPITATION MAKER OVER THE REGION...KEEPING THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FROM EASTERN IA/WESTERN WI TO THE EAST. THEY HAVE ALSO KEPT IT UNSEASONABLY WARM...RESULTING IN RAIN/DRIZZLE AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. SOME SUGGESTION THAT SNOW COULD MIX IN ON THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT...BUT ITS NOT CERTAIN THE DEPTH OF THE CLOUD OR THAT FORCING WOULD SUPPORT IT. THAT SAID...THE GFS HAS FLIP-FLOPPED WITH PRODUCING A DEFORMATION BAND WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE SFC LOW...BUT ITS BACK WITH THE 12Z RUN...AND THE LATEST EC HAS ALSO TRENDED THIS WAY. ENOUGH COLD AIR WITHIN THIS POTENTIAL BAND THAT A STRIP OF SNOW WOULD BE LIKELY. EVEN THEN...CURRENT GFS/EC SOLUTION WOULD KEEP MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWS FROM NORTHWEST IA INTO EAST CENTRAL MN/NORTHWEST WI - MOSTLY AWAY FROM THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. IN THIS SCENARIO...WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAS SOME HOPE FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS. STILL LOOKS UNLIKELY TO THE EAST. MODELS START STRAYING FROM EACH OTHER FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN HOW IT WILL ALL PLAY OUT. BITS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES HERE AND THERE...BUT TIMING/LOCATION UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT SNOW WOULD BE IN THE PICTURE...IF CLOUD DEPTH HARBORS SOME ICE. LETTING THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION COVER ANY CHANCES FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 530 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015 A COLD FRONT WAS WORKING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO WESTERN IOWA. AS THIS FEATURE WORKS EAST...THE WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND THE 20.21 CR-HRRR AND 20.22Z HRRR BOTH SUGGEST THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY DRIZZLE TO OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 20.21Z RAP SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH KRST BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS EVENING AND THEN THROUGH KLSE OVERNIGHT. BASED ON THIS...PLAN TO SHOW ONLY A SHORT WINDOW AROUND THE TIME THE FRONT COMES THROUGH FOR SOME DRIZZLE AT KRST. WILL CARRY DRIZZLE FOR KLSE FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE EVENING UNTIL THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING THE CEILINGS TO CONTINUE COMING DOWN WITH IFR DEVELOPING FOR BOTH SITES THIS EVENING AND THEN REMAINING THROUGH MONDAY AS THE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE VERY STRONG TO CLEAR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RIECK LONG TERM....RIECK AVIATION...04  FXUS63 KARX 270843 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 343 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 AT 3 AM...A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. MEANWHILE NORTH OF THIS FRONT...DEW POINT RANGED MID 50S IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND IOWA. IN ADDITIONAL PRECIPITABLE WATER RANGED FROM 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES. INFRARED SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA...SHOW A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS LOCATED ACROSS KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS WAS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND ON THE NOSE OF MODERATE TO STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY...AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE 0-1 KM CAPES CLIMB UP INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...THERE IS NO MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS IS SUPPORTED IN THE MESO MODELS...SO WENT DRY FOR THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT...THE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT BECOMES MODERATE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE EVENING TO MOVE TOWARD TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 4 TO 4.5 KM...EXPECT THAT ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. MEANWHILE WITH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WEAK...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS COMPLEX IN OUR AREA. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015 ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE 27.00Z GFS HAD PROBLEMS WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. THIS RESULT IN A VERY DEEP 925 AND 850 MB LOW DEVELOPING OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THIS RESULTED IN THE WINDS AT THESE LEVELS BEING WAY TOO STRONG. THE GFS WINDS ARE 10 TO 15 KNOTS STRONGER THAN EITHER THE NAM AND ECMWF IN OUR AREA. THERE ARE EVEN STRONGER DIFFERENCE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. IN THESE AREAS...THE GFS WINDS ARE 15 TO 25 KNOTS STRONGER THAN THE NAM OR ECMWF. DUE TO THIS...LEFT THE GFS OUT OF THE MIX. MODERATE TO STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS DROP IN THE 3.5 TO 4 KM RANGE DURING THE MORNING AND THEN CLIMB INTO THE 4 TO 4.5 KM RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES VALUES CLIMB FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IN THE MORNING TO 2 TO 2.4 INCHES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THESE PERCEPTIBLE WATER VALUES ARE REALIZED...IT WOULD BE A RECORD FOR KMPX. THE RECORD IS 1.84 FOR JULY 28TH AND 1.92 INCHES ON JULY 29TH. DUE TO ALL OF THIS EXPECT...THAT ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE BEST SHEAR IS LOCATED IN THE 0-3 KM LAYER. WITH IT BEING OVER 30 KNOTS...EXPECT STORMS TO TAKE ON A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE ONCE THEIR COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED. ONE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIMIT THE SURFACE HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK....BUT IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON WHETHER THE INSTABILITY CAN REDEVELOP OR NOT. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA...LOWERED THE TUESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW MORE DEGREES. AFTER THIS SYSTEM...THE MODELS SHOW THAT A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THE 0-3 KM SHEAR WOULD FAVOR A LINE OR LINES. BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD...THE MODEL TIMING CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE...SO JUST LEFT THE MODEL BLEND ALONE FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015 HIGH CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST LATE THIS EVENING...FROM AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS. THESE HIGH CLOUDS COULD BE THE INHIBITOR TO POTENTIAL FOG/STRATUS DEVELOP. SOME HINTS OF THIS LOW CLOUD/FOG OVER IA PER LATEST SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS SHAKY HOW FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST IT COULD GET...AND THE HIGH CLOUDS LOWERS CONFIDENCE EVEN MORE. THINK SOME REDUCTIONS IN VSBY ARE MORE LIKELY...AND WILL LEAN FORECAST THAT WAY. WILL REMOVE LOW CIGS AT KRST. LOOKING AT AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND GRADUAL LOWERING OF THE DECK LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A PERIOD OF SHRA/TS IS LOOKING LIKELY TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM...BOYNE AVIATION...RIECK  FXUS63 KARX 292109 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 309 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 309 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 LET THE FUN BEGIN. QUITE THE CHALLENGING FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM LATE TONIGHT RIGHT ON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH UNFORTUNATELY CONTINUES TO LEAD TO LOWER THAN DESIRED CONFIDENCE ON ANY SNOW AND/OR ICE AMOUNTS. WITH THAT SAID...THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A GROWING CONSENSUS THAT THIS STORM WILL BE MORE OF A "SLOP FEST" ACROSS THE CWA...WITH PRETTY MUCH ANY AND ALL AVAILABLE WINTRY PRECIP TYPES EXPECTED TO FALL IN SOME PART OF THE AREA. ONE TREND THAT IS NOTABLE IS THE EARLIER ARRIVAL TIMING OF PRECIP...WITH UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS ALREADY QUITE TELLING WITH AN INITIAL BAND OF WARM ADVECTION-DRIVEN PRECIP ROLLING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA. BASED ON THAT NOTION AND WITH PRETTY GOOD SUPPORT FROM SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...GETTING A LITTLE CONCERNED FOR A PERIOD OF SLOPPY WINTRY MIX ROLLING THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE CWA TOWARD OR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT A MIX OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET WITH A NOTABLE WARM NOSE PUSHING 2-3C...THOUGH PROBABLY WITH A FAST TREND TOWARD A MIX WITH SNOW AS WE WET BULB THAT LAYER MORE ISOTHERMAL DOWN TO ABOUT 0-0.5C. DON'T FORESEE AMOUNTS BEING ANYTHING TOO HIGH DURING THIS INITIAL SURGE...BUT WITH TEMPS OVERNIGHT LIKELY TO HANG BELOW FREEZING...THERE IS A POTENTIAL IMPACT FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY AS IT ONLY TAKES LIGHT AMOUNTS TO CAUSE SOME ISSUES. STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED ROCKIES LOW WILL BE SWINGING NORTHWARD IN OUR DIRECTION MONDAY MORNING. ALL THE WHILE...WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND LEFT EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS WORKING IN TANDEM WITH INCREASED LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AND DECENT MOISTURE...WE SHOULD SEE A LARGER PRECIP SHIELD EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY THIS POINT...IT APPEARS WE WILL DRAW IN ABUNDANT WARM AIR IN THE DEVELOPING TROWAL FEATURE TO LARGELY SWITCH THE PRECIP TYPE OVER TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SLEET MIX. THAT IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE MAJORITY OF WISCONSIN COUNTIES AND EVEN OUT TOWARD THE HIGHWAY 63 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA WITH 800MB TEMPS WARMING TO AS HIGH AS 4-5C. WITH THAT SAID...TO THE WEST WE WILL HAVE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT SURFACE TEMPS AS THEY WILL LIKELY RUN VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING...THUS WITH A PERIODIC FREEZING RAIN THREAT. CIPS ANALOGS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT POTENTIAL FOR A TIME. EVEN FARTHER NORTH/WEST OF A ROUGH LINE FROM MEDFORD TO DODGE CENTER TO AUSTIN (AND ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF I- 35)...STILL THINKING THIS WILL BE A MAINLY SNOW EVENT...THOUGH ONE CHARACTERIZED BY LOW RATIOS WITH ONLY A NARROW DGZ AND PLENTY OF THE CLOUD DEPTH ONLY AROUND -10C OR WARMER...SUGGESTIVE OF LOTS OF SNOWFLAKE RIMING POTENTIAL. WHATEVER PLETHORA OF PRECIPITATION TYPES THERE ARE OUT THERE SHOULD COME TO AN END QUICKLY LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF PRONOUNCED DRY SLOTTING. WITH THAT SAID...MOISTURE DEPTH STILL UP TO AROUND 750-800MB IN THAT DRY SLOT WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT DOES AT LEAST INTRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE PENDING SURFACE TEMPS. DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD SWING AN AREA OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BACK THROUGH MANY AREAS...BUT WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AS SURFACE TEMPS FOR MANY AREAS HOLD NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. SO...WHAT TO DO WITH HEADLINES? BASED ON CURRENT EXPECTATIONS...MY GUT FEELING IS THIS LOOKS LIKE A LONGER DURATION ADVISORY EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO MAYBE 6 INCHES CONFINED TO FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND FALLING OVER A PERIOD OF 24 HOURS OR SO. HERE...AN ADVISORY SEEMS QUITE WARRANTED. BUT WHAT TO DO WITH OTHER LOCATIONS? WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND STILL LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT PRECIP TYPES...FEEL COMPELLED TO REMAIN HEADLINE- FREE AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO PICK UP ON ANY NEAR TERM TRENDS. IF NOTHING ELSE...WE MAY NEED TO HIT THE MORNING COMMUTE WITH AN SPS OR SHORT-FUSED ADVISORY IF WE CAN REALIZE ENOUGH COVERAGE OF WINTRY PRECIP. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 309 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 THANKFULLY NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT AS WE GET INTO LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE GRADUAL DEPARTURE OF OUR CLOSED LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER WEDNESDAY. STARTING TO LOOK LIKE WE MAY A LOW CLOUD ISSUE INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUB-850MB MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A RATHER SHARP INVERSION AS WARMER AIR STARTS TO FLOOD IN ALOFT. THAT WARMING TREND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK AS WE SEE HEIGHTS REALLY REBOUND OVER THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY MUCH OF THE REGION...IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER MODEST UPPER TROUGH WORKING THROUGH THE WESTERN CONUS. DESPITE LIMITED MIXING GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...STILL REALLY LIKE THE NOTION THAT MANY SPOTS WILL MAKE A RUN INTO THE 40S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN 925MB TEMPS PEAK OUT IN THE 2-6C RANGE. OF COURSE...WE WILL HAVE TO TAKE ANY SNOW COVER INTO ACCOUNT...SO LIKELY A LITTLE COOLER FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS WHERE THE BEST SNOW IS EXPECTED CURRENTLY. OTHERWISE...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY GIVEN A LARGELY CLOSED GULF OF MEXICO...JUST NOT FEELING ANY DECENT RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST...EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THAT WESTERN TROUGH TOWARD SUNDAY...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW BOUTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. OVERALL...JUST A REALLY NICE PERIOD OF MILD EARLY DECEMBER WEATHER - WE'LL TAKE IT! && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015 EVEN WITH VFR CEILINGS STREAMING IN...QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE TODAY. FOCUS IS MORE CENTERED ON APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE AROUND UPPER LOW THAT WILL EJECT OUT OF SOUTHWEST STARTING TONIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO SPREAD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TYPE...ESPECIALLY AT ONSET. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WARMER NOW WITH SNOW AREA MORE LIKELY TO THE WEST. AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS CLOSER MONDAY...WARM NOSE AHEAD OF IT COULD CHANGE BULK OF PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN/SNOW MIX OR POSSIBLY JUST RAIN. INTRODUCED IDEA OF COLDER PRECIPITATION TYPES AT ONSET WITH GRADUAL SHIFT TO MORE LIQUID AS DAY GOES ON MONDAY... NEAR END OF TAF PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION TYPES AND INTENSITY SO ALSO TRENDED FORECASTS THAT DIRECTION. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ017-029-032>034. MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ079-086>088-094-095. IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR IAZ008-009-018-019. && $$ SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE LONG TERM...LAWRENCE AVIATION...SHEA  FXUS63 KARX 062101 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 301 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016 MESSY WINTER WEATHER TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER WESTERN IA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING PRECIPITATION EXPANDING AHEAD OF THIS WAVE FROM SOUTHERN MN INTO IA AND SOUTHERN WI. GROUND OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MAINLY A MIXTURE OF DRIZZLE/SNOW ACROSS THAT AREA. WILL BE WATCHING THAT MID-LEVEL LOW LIFT NORTHEAST INTO/THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING/DAMPENING OUT. RAP SHOWS THAT THE P- TYPE SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW WITH INCREASING COLUMN SATURAION WITH ICE PRESENT IN CLOUD. HOWEVER...THINGS COULD GET TRICKY FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE WAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH LOSS OF ICE IN CLOUD AND SOME LINGERING LIFT THROUGH THIS CLOUD. IF THERE IS INDEED TOTAL ICE LOSS...COULD BE A BOUT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OTHERWISE...COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO SEE SOME FOG MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-90 WITH WARMING/INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS LIKE A SUB-HEADLINE EVENT...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE WEATHER AS IT EVOLVES. FOR THURSDAY...MODELS SHOW MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LINGERING MOISTURE/STRATUS FOR SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AS WEAK LIFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE SUPER-COOLED/ICE-LESS CLOUD LAYER. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL FOR AREAS THAT REMAIN BELOW 32 IN THE MORNING. HOWEVER...ROADS SHOULD BE TREATED ENOUGH FOR MINIMAL TRAVEL IMPACT. MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP UP IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONGER WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING WELL INTO THE 30S...LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW MIX SETTING UP. AS SUCH...NOT EXPECTING ANY APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...PERHAPS A DUSTING/TENTH OF AN INCH IN SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. IN ADDITION...LOOKS LIKE FOG WILL BE INCREASING AS WELL AS THIS WARMING/MOIST AIR RIDES OVER THE EXISTING COLD SNOW PACK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN MO BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDING TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUPPORT A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORING MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS MAINLY FROM SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 301 PM CST WED JAN 6 2016 FRIDAY WILL SEE THE LOW MOVE THROUGH EASTERN WI. LATEST MODELS/THINKING IS THAT MAINLY RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WI AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACROSS THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. LOOK FOR LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY NOT BUDGING MUCH FROM THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW LINGERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLDER ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE REGION. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT TEMPERATURE ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ALONG WITH A FAIRLY STILL WIND IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH A FEW GUSTS AROU7ND 25 MPH. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MINUS 15 TO MINUS 25 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR POTENTIAL WINDCHILL HEADLINES ACROSS THAT AREA. MAIN STORY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE ARCTIC AIRMASS PAYING US A VISIT. HIGHS START OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SUNDAY...MODERATING SOME INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS ABOVE ZERO MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY NOON) ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST WED JAN 6 2016 DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR INITIALLY HOLDING OVER THE AREA AT MID DAY...BUT LOWER MOISTURE/CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO COVER MOST AREAS WEST OF THE MS RIVER BY MID AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD EAST OF THE MS RIVER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. DEEPER MOISTURE/CLOUDS...AND SOME MVFR VSBYS -SN THEN ON TRACK TO SPREAD INTO KRST AROUND 23Z... SPREADING SLOWLY EAST AND INTO THE KLSE AREA AROUND 03Z. IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN -SN/BR THEN EXPECTED A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE -SN INITIALLY ARRIVES AS THE LOWEST LEVELS GRADUALLY SATURATE. BY LATER TONIGHT AND FOR THU MORNING...THE CLOUD DEPTH BECOMES SHALLOWER AND ICE CRYSTALS ARE LOST IN THE CLOUDS. ANY PRECIP LATER TONIGHT AND THRU THU MORNING WOULD BE -FZDZ/-DZ DEPENDING ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP. LOWER LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AFTER 06Z CONTINUES TO PULL MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS WELL...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 30S OVER THE SNOW COVER LATE TONIGHT/THU MORNING...WHICH SPELLS BR/FG. IFR CIGS AND MAINLY IFR VSBYS IN BR EXPECTED WITH THE -DZ/-FZDZ LATE TONIGHT/ THU MORNING...LOWEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR VSBYS 1/2SM OR LESS IN FG AT SITES LIKE KRST THU MORNING BUT LEFT TAF THERE AS 1SM -FZDZ/-DZ BR FOR NOW. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM....DAS AVIATION.....RRS  FXUS63 KARX 141130 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 530 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016 AT 3 AM...AN ARCTIC FRONT FROM LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THIS FRONT WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MEANWHILE A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM MINERAL POINT WISCONSIN TO THE TWIN CITIES. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THIS FRONT WERE IN THE LOWER AND MID 20S. THE 14.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY. NORTH OF THIS FRONT... THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SATURATION FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FALL. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY AND AS TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT...IT WILL CHANGE INTO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT...SO NOT EXPECTING A HUGE DROP IN TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT THAT...ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING FROM ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE PLACE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016 ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH MICHIGAN. DEFORMATION SNOW WILL MAINLY AFFECT WESTERN WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE UP TO A HALF INCH. FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE GEM HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE -26 TO 30C RANGE BY SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -25C. THE GRIDDED HOURLY DATA HINTS THAT LA CROSSE MAY NOT CLIMB ABOVE ZERO ON SUNDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...IT WILL BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE JANUARY 6 2014. WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE 35 TO 40 BELOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...A WIND CHILL WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. MEANWHILE THE REST OF AREA WILL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL ADVISORIES LOOK LIKELY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE ROCHESTER MINNESOTA HOURLY GFS GRIDDED TEMPERATURES SHOW THAT ONCE THE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO AT 16.09Z THEY DO RISE ABOVE ZERO AGAIN UNTIL 22.18Z. THIS 153 HOURS OF SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES. THIS SEEMS UNREALISTIC SINCE THERE IS NO REINFORCEMENT OF THIS COLD AIR COMING INTO THE REGION AND NO FRESHENING OF THE SNOW...SO THE ALBEDO WOULD BE GRADUALLY DECREASING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOLAR ANGLE. IF THIS DID OCCUR...IT WOULD RIVAL THE LONGEST SUB- ZERO TEMPERATURE STREAK OF 161 HOURS FROM JANUARY 29 TO FEBRUARY 4 1996. DURING THIS STREAK...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS -17.5F. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS RUNNING VERY COLD...THE 14.00Z ECWMF IS RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 20F WARMER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS MUCH COLDER THAN ITS 13.12Z RUN WHERE THE TEMPERATURES WERE CLIMBING INTO THE 30S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS JUST GOES TO SHOW THAT THERE IS A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN THE TEMPERATURES STARTING WITH TUESDAY...SO JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 530 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016 VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH EARLY MID CLOUDS OF 8-12KFT DEPARTING LEAVING ONLY SOME PASSING CIRRUS INTO THE AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING SOME MVFR VISIBILITY AROUND KRST NORTH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT...AND THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AS WE GET MORE OF A GRADIENT FLOW NORTH OF THAT BOUNDARY LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING FOR LOW STRATUS TO OOZE ITS WAY BACK SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MN/WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWERING BACK TO IFR RANGE FOR BOTH SITES...LOWEST OF COURSE AT KRST GIVEN THEIR ELEVATION. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS...THERE IS A RISK FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW GIVEN MARGINAL CLOUD DEPTH AND VERY WEAK LIFT THROUGH IT. STILL...IF WE DO REALIZE ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE...THERE WILL BE AN OBVIOUS IMPACT FOR AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM...BOYNE AVIATION...LAWRENCE  FXUS63 KARX 101630 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1030 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1030 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016 QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD/TEMP TRENDS. WIDESPREAD STRATUS ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE CWA...SAVE FOR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO BREAK INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE TUCKED BENEATH A RATHER SHARP INVERSION. LIMITED MIXING AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD WON'T HELP MATTERS MUCH EITHER FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...THOUGH IT IS ENCOURAGING TO SEE SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM WHERE CLOUD THICKNESS IS MUCH LESS (GENERALLY 1000 FT OR LESS). PER TRENDS...DO STILL EXPECT SOME PRETTY RAPID IMPROVEMENT HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH PERHAPS A STRIPE OF SLOWER-TO-DEPART STRATUS BISECTING THE CWA WHERE CLOUDS ARE MUCH THICKER CURRENTLY. HAVE TWEAKED HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES CENTRAL/NORTHERN SPOTS BUT MAY ULTIMATELY HAVE TO RAISE THEM BACK UP PENDING CLOUD TRENDS (NEVER A BAD THING TO HAVE TO DO IN EARLY MARCH). && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016 AT 3 AM...CLOUDS CONTINUED TO LINGER ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE DENSE FOG HAS MOVED OUT OF MEDFORD WISCONSIN... BUT STILL LINGERS IN THE PHILLIPS AND WAUSAU AREAS. WITH IT REMAINING PATCHY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...FEEL THIS CAN BE HANDLED BY A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT INSTEAD OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOR TODAY...THE 10.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND THEN CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREE WARMER THAN NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016 ON FRIDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A BROKEN 4 TO 6K DECK OF CLOUDS...AND THEN SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON. 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB FROM AROUND 4C AT 12Z FRIDAY TO 8-12C BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS DAY...PLEASE CONSULT THE CLIMATOLOGY SECTION BELOW. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUE TO BE THE FASTEST WITH HAVING ITS CLOUDS REACHING THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR BY NOON. MEANWHILE THE NAM DOES NOT HAVE THE CLOUDS REACHING THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR UNTIL 6 PM. THE ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE 2 SOLUTIONS. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. IF THE CLOUDS ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE TO BE RAISED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. FOR NOW...OPTED JUST TO STAY WITH THE MODEL BLENDS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THAT DAY. FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...A SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP PERIODIC SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH. ON TUESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT. THE GFS HAS A MOVE NEGATIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SO ITS WARM FRONT MOVES AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. SURFACE BASED CAPES IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM CLIMB INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR REMAIN WEAK...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE THE ECWMF HAS A BROADER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ITS WARM FRONT DOES NOT ADVANCE ANY FURTHER NORTH THAN THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. THIS KEEPS THE THREAT FOR THUNDER SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH MIXED SIGNALS IN THE MODELS... OPTED TO JUST KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 500 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016 EXPANSE OF IFR/MVFR CLOUDS COVERS NORTHERN WI/MN EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN MN. NAM12/RAP13 LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THE LAYOUT ON THE CURRENT CLOUD SHIELD...BUT LOOK A BIT SLOWER IN CLEARING IT IN THEIR LATEST RUNS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS MATCH. WILL PUSH BACK THE SCATTERING OUT OF BKN/OVC CIGS WITH THIS IN MIND...ALTHOUGH SOME HINTS THAT THIS TIMING MAY HAVE TO GET PUSHED BACK EVEN A FEW HOURS MORE. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY FOR FRI MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS INTO EASTERN WI. SOME CURRENT SFC OBS INDICATING A FOG POTENTIAL UNDER THE CENTER OF THE HIGH. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST...BUT ITS SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR. && .CLIMATE...FRIDAY ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016 ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WERE SET BACK IN 1990...2006...AND 2012. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARCH 11TH. ALMA DAM 4 WI - 64F - 2012 AUSTIN MN - 63F - 2012 BLACK RIVER FALLS WI - 67F - 2012 CALEDONIA MN - 62F - 2012 CHARLES CITY IA - 64F - 1990 CRESCO IA - 64F - 2012 DECORAH IA - 65F - 2012 FRIENDSHIP WI - 65F - 2012 LA CROSSE WI - 67F - 2012 LANCASTER WI - 62F - 2012 MEDFORD WI - 58F - 1908 OELWEIN IA - 64F - 2012 OWEN WI - 59F - 2012 PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI - 66F - 1990 ROCHESTER MN - 63F - 2012 SPARTA WI - 65F - 2012 THEIMAN MN - 65F - 2012 WINONA DAM MN - 66F - 2012 && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...LAWRENCE SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM....BOYNE AVIATION.....RIECK CLIMATE......BOYNE  FXUS63 KARX 120851 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 351 AM CDT Thu May 12 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tonight) Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu May 12 2016 Early morning water vapor satellite imagery showing a mid-level trough extending from the Arrowhead of MN through western WI into western IL. Radar mosaic showing band of showers and isolated thunderstorms...exiting east out of central WI. Areas of dense fog formed in wake of the showers in the very moist lower boundary layer across portions of southeast MN and northeast IA. As such...a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for areas west of the Mississippi River until 7am. Very likely this advisory will be cancelled before 7am as a secondary trough/westerly push of drier air filters in. For today...will see stratus field clear some once this drier get in here by mid-morning. This will be short-lived though with cumulus build-up expected through the remainder of the morning/afternoon as the mid-level trough/colder cyclonic flow rotates overhead. Sounding show cloud thickness around 2kft...so could support a few sprinkles in daytime heating. otherwise...breezy west/northwest winds will overspread the area...drawing in cooler air. Look for highs today in the 60s. For tonight...plan on skies becoming mostly clear with lows dipping into the lower/middle 40s as a weak ridge of high pressure drifts across the region. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu May 12 2016 For Friday into the Weekend... On Friday...will be watching a mid-level trough drop southeast through the Northern Plains. Models show strong 850-500mb frontogenetic response propagating southeast through the area...centered in the 15-21z time frame and mainly south of I-94. So...looks like a good shot at some showers. In addition...Bufkit soundings showing some elevated CAPE above 8kft or so for some isolated thunder as well. Based on consistent signal over the last several day/model runs...kicked probabilities into categorical range mainly in that 15-21z time frame. Otherwise...temperatures will suffer from cloud cover and shower with highs only expected to top off in the 50s...possibly a few low 60s across far northeast IA/southwest WI. Look for the showers move out of the area by Friday evening as high pressure builds in from the Northern Plains. Plan on a chilly night with lows dropping into the middle/upper 30s. Not expecting any frost as winds should keep up in the 10-15 mph in rather tight pressure gradient. Cold is the main message through the weekend as mid-level troughing dominates the region. Plan on highs Saturday in the middle 40s to the middle 50s...warming slightly into the middle/upper 50s Sunday. May have to watch for some frost late Saturday night into early Sunday morning...which will depend on cloud cover and wind. For Monday through Thursday... Looks like a progressive flow sets up through the period with a couple troughs moving through the region for on/off shower chances. Otherwise...a slow warming trend expected with highs Monday and Tuesday in the low to mid 60s...warming into the 65-70 degree range by Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016 Skies are starting to slowly clear from west to east in the wake of a weak cold front passage, with a period of light winds and moist conditions expected to bring some fog development to both sites. KRST should find itself down around 1/4SM for a time before improvement takes place from west to east roughly 08-11Z as a secondary and more pronounced cold front sweeps across the area. Similarly, do think KLSE will take a dip for a time with light winds in place, but likely with slightly higher visibility. Once any stratus/fog clears by sunrise, we should see a flare-up of stratocumulus toward midday, with ceilings in the 3-5kft range and perhaps a few sprinkles as well. Winds will become a bit gusty from the west up to around 20 knots later today, with skies starting to clear this evening. && WI...None. MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for MNZ079-087- 088-095-096. IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for IAZ008>011- 018-019-029-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM....DAS AVIATION...Lawrence  FXUS63 KARX 121855 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 155 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2016 Radar showing last vestiges of mid-level wave induced deformation band showers now pushed east of the Mississippi River...and almost exiting east of the area. Otherwise, a chilly/cloudy Wednesday across the area with strong cold air advection/brisk northwest winds. Temperatures at 1 pm were in the 40s. For tonight...main concern focused on freezing temperatures. Visible satellite showing quite a bit of stratocumulus behind the departing wave piled up across MN/Dakotas. Initially thinking this may mess up temperatures and freeze headlines but GOES satellite cloud thickness product reveals clouds are only 700-1000ft thick which should scatter out under increasing subsidence with incoming Canadian high. Synthetic Low cloud/fog satellite product reinforces this thinking, showing scattering out of the clouds this evening. So, with colder airmass/good radiational cooling conditions tonight, looks like freeze warning headline looks appropriate with no changes planned. In addition, the synthetic low cloud/fog product shows a lot of river valley fog in some of the main river channels including the Mississippi River. This may lead to some hoar frost conditions as fog deposits rime icing on objects. Look for overnight lows ranging from the lower/middle 20s across the cold favored sand country of central WI...to the upper 20s/lower 30s elsewhere. High pressure remains in control across the region through Thursday night for dry/cooler than normal conditions. Look for highs Thursday in the 50s with lows Thursday night in the lower/middle 30s. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2016 Warm air advection sets up on Friday on the backside of the departing high and in advance of low pressure moving into the Plains. Breezy conditions expected, especially across the open areas of northeast IA/southeast MN. Look for south winds there in the 15-20 mph range with gusts of 25-30mph. Otherwise...looks mostly sunny across the area with highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Shower/thunderstorm chances look pretty good for Saturday into Saturday night as a cold front pushes in from the Plains. GFS indicating 0-3km MUCAPE in the 500-1000J/kg range with 0-3km bulk shear of 25-35kt by late in the afternoon/early evening. With this in mind, may have to keep an eye out for the potential for a few stronger storms mainly across northeast IA/far southwest WI. Otherwise...plan on highs Saturday in the middle 60s to near 70. Progressive flow aloft brings another system and round of shower/thunder chances into the region Sunday night into Monday. Look for highs Sunday in the middle 60s to near 70, and middle 60s to lower 70s on Monday. Latest GFS/ECMWF at odds on strength of incoming mid-level trough and resulting surface cyclogenesis potentially impacting the area Tuesday into Wednesday. GFS has a much deeper surface low moving through the Plains/Upper Mississippi River Valley. This brings a lot of rain into the region. The ECMWF on the other hand is much less excited, taking weak wave forcing mainly north of the area which results in a smattering of rain. Model consensus approach seems logical at this point until hopefully better agreement takes place over next several model runs. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2016 The cold front continued to push SE of the area at mid-day. Post- frontal deformation band of RA/SHRA continued to move east across the area, with the back edge on KRST at 17z. Distance-speed tool has the precip east of KLSE around 19z. MVFR clouds behind the front will be a little slower to clear the area. Distance-speed tool has the back edge of these clouds thru KRST around 2030z and KLSE around 23z. Some mainly VFR strato-cu then looking to linger into the evening, before finally clearing out during the mid evening hours as a chilly Can high builds into the Upper Midwest. Generally good VFR then expected late this evening thru Thu morning as the sfc ridge axis drifts across the Upper Midwest. Rain today then clearing after sunset does set the stage for late night/early morning valley BR/FG at sites like KLSE. Tricky this time with temps expected to dip below 32F and frost/freeze threat. If lows were going to be warmer, without frost deposition, IFR FG in the valleys would likely be more widespread centered on 12z Thu. For now included a BCFG SCT003 in the 08-15z period as a heads up. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for WIZ029- 032>034- 041>044-053>055-061. MN...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for MNZ079- 086>088- 094>096. IA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for IAZ008>011- 018- 019-029-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM...DAS AVIATION...RRS  FXUS63 KARX 270914 CCA AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion...Correction National Weather Service La Crosse WI 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tonight) Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016 Current GOES IR imagery showing the region engulfed in widespread stratus in the wake of low pressure over northern Indiana. GOES cloud thickness product indicating this stratus varying from 800- 1200ft thick, so not expecting any clearing overnight as a ridge of high pressure builds overhead by daybreak. In fact, this stratus looks to be be pretty stubborn today with perhaps some breaks west of the Mississippi. With anticipated cloud cover, temperatures will suffer some with highs ranging from the middle and upper 40s along and northeast of I-94 to the lower/middle 50s elsewhere. Southerly winds pick up through the night tonight as low pressure moves into the Dakotas. NAM bufkit along with majority of hi-res models showing the potential for more stratus/fog across the area tonight as fetch of moisture moves north out of the Southern Plans/Gulf in this southerly flow. Have partly to mostly cloudy going across the area, along with patchy fog mention west of the Mississippi River. Hopefully fog doesnt get too out of hand given the very moist ground/lower boundary layer...something to keep an eye on. Overnight lows look to be near 40 across central WI...to the middle 40s west of the Mississippi River. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016 Friday could potentially be a bit tricky given potential for stratus in moist southerly flow. Better potential for boundary layer mixing/sunshine will be across northeast IA/far southwest WI. Rest of the area looks to be in the stratus. This will have a definite impact on temperatures. Right now...going for lower 60s across central WI to the the upper 60s across northeast IA/far southwest WI but this may be a bit optimistic if more stratus materializes. Also of note will be gusty south winds in the 15-25 mph range with gust around 35 mph across the bluff tops along the Mississippi River and the more open areas of northeast IA/southeast MN. A cold front oozes slowly southward across the area Friday night into Saturday setting up a zone of baroclinicity. Meanwhile...the NAM/GFS/ECMWF all show a weak mid-level trough working on this baroclinic zone Saturday into Saturday night for a chance of showers. Otherwise, looks mostly cloudy through Saturday night with highs Saturday ranging from the lower/middle 50s across northern WI to the lower/middle 60s across northeast IA/far southwest WI. High pressure moves in Sunday for a pleasant autumn day. Look for highs right around normal in the 50s. Rain chances return Monday/Monday night as a rather strong low pressure system moves east out of the Dakotas and across Lake Superior. This system has the potential to pull some unseasonably warm air northward into the region Monday. Right now...looking at highs Monday ranging from the upper 50s across northern WI to the middle/upper 60s across the rest of the area. After what looks to be a quiet Tuesday under high pressure, look for rain chances again Wednesday as a weak Mid-level trough ripples northeast out of the Central Plains toward the region. Otherwise...temperatures look to be a few degrees above normal with highs well into the 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016 The surface low has moved into Indiana this evening taking the inverted trough out of the region as well. This has allowed the drizzle to end but the low clouds remain. A weak area of high pressure was moving in but satellite imagery shows the low clouds extend back past the ridge axis. With a very light wind flow expected until the surface ridge moves east of the area Thursday evening, not expecting any significant airmass change. This should keep the IFR/MVFR ceilings in place until very late Thursday afternoon or early evening. There should also be some light fog that develops overnight to take the visibility down to MVFR through about the middle of Thursday morning. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016 Minor flooding continues along the Cedar River in southeast MN/northeast IA, as well as along the Turtle Creek near Austin MN. Minor flooding is also forecasted for the Trempealeau River in west- central WI. See the latest Flood Statements for the specific river forecasts. Other rivers...streams and creeks also have rises but will remain below flood stage. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM....DAS AVIATION.....04 HYDROLOGY....DAS  FXUS63 KARX 191029 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 530 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 At 3 AM, weak 850 mb moisture convergence associated with the low level jet is resulting in scattered showers along north of the Interstate 94 corridor in Wisconsin. The 19.00z models are in very good agreement that this moisture transport will gradually wane during the remainder of the overnight. As a result, expect these showers will be gone by day break. The models are in good agreement that the clouds will gradually dissipate this morning and that the afternoon will be partly to mostly sunny. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s. For tonight, the 850 mb moisture transport will increase dramatically ahead of an approaching longwave trough. In addition, the mixed layer CAPES will climb into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg across southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. A squall line will develop over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota during the evening and this will march toward our area during the overnight. As the main short wave energy ahead of this trough ejects into northern Minnesota, this line will slow and weaken as it moves east across eastern Minnesota and northeast Iowa. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 On Wednesday, a cold front will push east across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. By noon, this front will be close to the Mississippi River and it will east of the area by 00z Thursday. Despite the short wave moving northeast into Canada, there will be sufficient shear and instability for supercells to develop ahead of the cold front. The main severe weather threats would be damaging winds and large hail. However, with this said, it may be east of our area before this occurs. On Thursday, the GFS and GEM produce showers and storms south of the Interstate 90 corridor. Meanwhile, the NAM and ECMWF are dry. Looking at the soundings for this time period, the atmosphere looks too capped for any precipitation to form. Due to this, removed the precipitation for this time period. From Friday into the weekend, the upper level ridge will be building across the region. This will slow the eastward progress of a cold front over the northern and central Plains. Due to this, confined the rain chances to north-central Wisconsin and southeast Minnesota. I would not be surprised that even these areas could be potentially dry too. Southwest flow ahead of this cold front will likely result in warmer temperatures than the MOS guidance. As a result, the temperatures were raised anywhere from 3 to 5F. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 530 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Cigs/Vsby: mass of sub 1kf cigs with vrb vsbys (mostly 3sm or less) over much of MN and northern IA early this morning. Sfc obs and satellite imagery shows some advancement east with the lower cigs/vsby - and could see some impacts at KRST. Models slow the advancement after sunup, and point to a decreasing cloud trend for western WI later this morning. Will keep KLSE out of any cig/vsby restriction for now. KRST should improve by the afternoon, with the expectation of scattering out at least for a few hours. Clouds on the return tonight ahead of a shortwave/sfc front combo. Some lowering again expected, but likely after 12z. Some mvfr probable. WX: leading edge of low level moisture transport/jet should lead to scattered showers development overnight, mostly along and east of the mississippi river. Not enough confidence to add to KLSE at this time, but a vcsh and/or -shra may be needed in the future. Some instability to play with too, so isolated storms could be in the area. Better chances north of the TAF sites. Winds: pressure gradient tightens through the day as the next weather system approaches from the west. Winds will be on the increase this evening, persisting overnight. LLWS a concern with the low level jet overhead. Will add a mention for both TAF sites. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Boyne LONG TERM...Boyne AVIATION...Rieck  FXUS63 KARX 230443 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1143 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018 Visible satellite this afternoon continues to show the clouds remaining over areas from along the Mississippi River east into Wisconsin. Still expecting most of these to scatter out through the evening as a brief period of upper level ridging builds over the area. With the recent rains adding moisture to the boundary layer, the clearing skies and light winds, concerned about fog formation, especially along and east of the Mississippi River where skies will be clear the longest. Potential that some of this may be dense but confidence on where and when is not high enough for an advisory at this point. Farther west, the potential for fog will be mitigated by increasing clouds ahead of the short wave trough. The 22.12Z models remain consistent in showing a wave topping the upper level ridge tonight. The focus for the low level jet will be over the Missouri River Valley which should help the wave generate a complex of showers and storms over northwest Iowa into southeast South Dakota this evening. This complex should migrate east with the short wave trough, but the low level jet/moisture transport will rapidly weaken as the complex moves east which should bring in mainly showers with some embedded thunder to locations west of the Mississippi River late tonight. This activity should continue to drift east/northeast Wednesday while also weakening but enough to continue mentioning at least a chance for some showers/isolated storms across much of the area. Another weak short wave trough should top the ridge again Wednesday night with the low level jet/moisture transport focused more into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. This low level jet/moisture transport doesn't look to be all that strong but enough to regenerate another complex of showers and storms from about the Mississippi River off to the east. The severe threat with these storms looks rather minimal with only about 750 J/kg of ML CAPE that quickly drops off into northern and central Wisconsin. Similar to Wednesday, this complex should continue to drift to the east/northeast during Thursday while also gradually weakening and diminishing in areal coverage. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018 There looks to be on and off rain chances through much of this period with a rather weak pattern that should allow for more hours of dry weather than wet conditions at any given locations. The exception to this looks to be Friday afternoon and evening. The current upper level low over the Desert Southwest will ride up the backside of the ridge and then slide east through the top of the ridge to close out the work week. Still some timing and strength differences between the models, but they all show at least some weak pv advection in the 500-300 mb layer sliding across most of Minnesota and Wisconsin. This should push a cold front across the area Friday afternoon and evening with some convection firing along it. The 22.12Z NAM suggests between 1000 and 2000 J/kg of ML CAPE could be in place ahead of the front but the deep shear looks to be lacking and only about 20 to 25 knots in the 0-3 km layer. At this point, would expect much severe weather but heavy rain may be more of a threat with warm cloud depths of 3 to 3.5 km and precipitable water values forecast to be between 1.5 and 1.75 inches. Temperatures will also be warming back up during this period with little to no cool down behind the front Friday. Highs should be back in the 80s by Thursday and stay there through the holiday weekend. Highs in the middle to upper 80s are currently expected across the entire area from Friday through Memorial Day. Fortunately, it looks like the dew points will remain in the 60s for this period which will help to keep the heat index values in check. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018 Radar at 0430Z showing thunderstorm activity has broken out across Iowa as forecast and this should begin to work its way toward KRST overnight. Still some questions on the instability that will shift in and how much TSRA will be around versus just SHRA. Confidence was not high enough to TEMPO the TSRA at this TAF issuance. Fog is beginning to develop across central WI and this trend should continue in WI. Big question is the cirrus spreading in from the Dakotas and if it will be enough cloud thickness to stop any cooling for dense fog development in the river valley. Stayed the course for now with the forecast as there is only a 3F dewpoint depression at 04Z. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...Baumgardt