FXUS64 KAMA 081003 AFDAMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 503 AM CDT WED MAY 8 2013 .SHORT TERM... THROUGH 7 AM: ONCE AGAIN, ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE EARLIER THIS MORNING AND QUICKLY INTENSIFIED INTO THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY CROSSED INTO KANSAS. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR FORECAST THROUGH SUNRISE, BUT THERE COULD BE A RENEGADE SHOWER OR STORM THAT FORMS IN BEAVER COUNTY. 7 AM-3 PM: FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES LATER THIS MORNING AND SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AS THIS OCCURS, THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN AND BEGIN MIXING EASTWARD RAPIDLY. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT, WE WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT THE DRYLINE TO HANG UP JUST OFF THE CAPROCK IN THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOWEVER, WITH THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OUR AREA OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS (AND EVEN THE LAST TWO+ YEARS), IT'S GOING TO BE TOUGH FOR THE DRYLINE TO NOT MIX INTO AT LEAST OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. IN FACT, WE WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF IT MIXES TO THE STATE LINE BY THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY BEHIND THE DRYLINE, WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST AREAS, HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE NORTHWEST (CLOSE TO A COLD FRONT) TO NEAR 90. 3 PM-7 PM: INDIVIDUAL LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AHEAD OF A STRONGER CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL INCREASE FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF HEATING AND THE INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ERODE MIXED LAYER CIN BY 4 PM. BY THIS TIME, THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY BE IN THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME CONFLUENCE IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AFTER 4 PM FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF A BEAVER TO CLARENDON LINE. IF STORMS DEVELOP, THEY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY 7 PM. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A COLD FRONT. IF STORMS DEVELOP IN EITHER LOCATION, THEY COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. WE THINK THE HIGHEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS STORMS WILL BECOME MATURE IN THOSE LOCATIONS DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE. 7 PM-7 AM: AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA, A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE EARLY THIS EVENING AND PUSH SOUTHWARD. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND THE RETREATING DRYLINE MAY ACTUALLY TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF A BEAVER TO MCLEAN LINE THROUGH 1 AM. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP, THEY COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD END BY 1 AM. THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 2 AM, WITH MOISTURE INCREASING IN ITS WAKE. GIVEN THE MOIST POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS, SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER 4 AM FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF A BOISE CITY TO HEREFORD LINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. JACKSON && .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WAS LEFT IN TACT, WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING TO INCREASE PRECIP CHCS ON THU AND FRI. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION FROM SPLIT FLOW (WITH THE PANHANDLES JUST NORTH OF THE SRN STREAM JET) TO A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH PATTERN. BY NEXT WEEK, THE PANHANDLES WILL BE UNDER A PLUMP UPR RIDGE...JUST NE OF A WEAK UPR LOW OVER NRN MEXICO THAT THREATENS TO LOCK US UP IN A REX BLOCK (GOOD FOR WARM WEATHER, BAD FOR RAIN CHANCES). THAT WAS THE BAD NEWS...HOW ABOUT SOME GOOD NEWS? THE WEAK UPR LOW THAT WILL FORM THE BOTTOM SIDE OF THE REX BLOCK SHOULD PROVIDE THE PANHANDLES WITH REASONABLE RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS WEEK BEFORE IT MOVES OFF TO THE SW THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY NOTED ON THU AND FRI IN AN UPSLOPE NE LOW LVL FLOW REGIME IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THURSDAY... FORECAST SOUNDINGS THU LOOK QUITE INTERESTING IN THE SRN PANHANDLES. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE A MOIST SOUNDING WITH PWAT VALUES ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE AND TALL MLCAPE PROFILES PUSHING 1-2KJ/KG. IN ADDITION, WEAK SHEAR AND A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 8-9KFT WOULD SUPPORT SLOW MOVING, RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY STORMS. THE BIG QUESTION MARK IS IN THE MUDDLED UPR PATTERN. IF WE CAN CATCH A SPOKE OF SHRTWV ENERGY, THE PIECES MAY COME TOGETHER FOR SOME GOOD RAINS IN THE SRN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER, IF WE GET JOBBED BY AN ILL TIMED OR WEAKER SPOKE OF ENERGY...ONLY ISOLATED TO SCT COVERAGE WILL BE NOTED. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, HAVE NOT GONE ALL IN, BUT DID INCREASE POPS A FAIR BIT TO AROUND 40 PERCENT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE FROM 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH...BUT IF THINGS SET UP WELL, HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIKELY. IN ADDITION, PULSE TYPE SVR THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. FRIDAY... THE BEST PRECIP CHCS WILL PUSH A BIT FURTHER SW...MEANING AREAS NE OF A DALHART TO CLAUDE LINE MAY BE LEFT OUT TO DRY (PUN INTENDED). INSTABILITY WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN ON THU, BUT A FEW ISO RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AFTER JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM IN THE NORTH SAT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THIS PERIOD. WINDS... DUE TO THE OVERALL WEAKNESS IN FLOW ALOFT AND THE GENERAL ABSENCE OF THE LEE SIDE LOW THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...IT SHOULD NOT BE A VERY WINDY PERIOD. TEMPS... BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT...HIGHS WILL HOVER AROUND THE LOW 70S THROUGH SAT. HIGH TEMPS WILL THEN RAMP UP SUNDAY TO THE MID TO UPR 70S AND GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S NEXT WEEK. IN SPITE OF THE BUILDING UPR RIDGE...THE WEAK UPR LOW SHOULD KEEP ANY KIND OF A HEAT DOME FROM FORMING OVER US...RESULTING IN PLEASANT AND NOT HOT LATE SPRING READINGS. SIMPSON && .FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING BEHIND A DRYLINE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES BY AROUND NOON TODAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY WEST OF A CLAUDE TO PERRYTON LINE AS SOUTHWEST 20 FOOT WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 15-20 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. ISOLATED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A SFC LOW SHOULD KEEP 20 FOOT WINDS FROM EXCEEDING 20 MPH FOR MORE THAN 3 HRS. BEYOND TODAY...NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND AS HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SIMPSON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMARILLO TX 89 53 72 50 69 / 0 0 40 20 30 BEAVER OK 90 55 73 50 73 / 20 20 40 30 20 BOISE CITY OK 83 49 67 44 69 / 20 20 40 30 20 BORGER TX 89 55 74 52 73 / 5 5 40 30 20 BOYS RANCH TX 88 52 74 49 72 / 0 0 40 20 30 CANYON TX 88 52 74 51 68 / 0 0 40 20 30 CLARENDON TX 89 56 76 55 70 / 20 0 40 30 30 DALHART TX 87 49 69 46 69 / 0 5 40 20 30 GUYMON OK 88 53 71 48 73 / 10 20 40 30 20 HEREFORD TX 86 51 73 50 68 / 0 0 40 20 40 LIPSCOMB TX 89 55 74 52 74 / 20 20 40 30 20 PAMPA TX 87 54 71 52 70 / 20 5 40 30 20 SHAMROCK TX 90 57 77 57 72 / 20 20 40 30 20 WELLINGTON TX 91 58 80 57 74 / 20 20 30 30 30 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 13/09  FXUS64 KAMA 070944 AFDAMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 444 AM CDT WED AUG 7 2013 .DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY A VERY DIFFICULT FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE FORECAST ARE IN STORE AS SFC FEATURES CONTINUE TO BE MODULATED BY ROUNDS OF CONVECTION AND SHORT TERM MODELS CAN'T AGREE ON ANYTHING AT THE SFC. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT FALLING UPR HEIGHTS AND MULTIPLE SFC BOUNDARIES WILL INTERACT WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO KICK OFF ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TODAY, TONIGHT, AND THU. WHAT WE DON'T KNOW IS EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THESE ROUNDS WILL OCCUR. WHERE THEY DO OCCUR...BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TODAY AND TONIGHT... A BIT SURPRISING IN THIS PERIOD ARE HOW LITTLE QPF AND HOW LOW MODEL POP NUMBERS ARE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEVERAL FACTORS SEEM TO POINT TO SCATTERED IF NOT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COVERAGE SEEN TUE AND TUE NIGHT. A FEW OF THE FACTORS INCLUDE: 1)FALLING UPR HEIGHTS 2)ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE 3)STRONG LOW LVL CONVERGENCE NEAR BOUNDARIES AND A FRONT 4)UPSLOPE FLOW 5)APPROACHING UPR WAVE. THOUGH UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS...HERE IS A STAB AT HOW TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL EVOLVE: THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN KICKED SOUTH OF THE TX PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN TO MIX NORTH LATE THIS MORNING. AS IT MIXES NORTH...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH FROM CO/KS...LIKELY HELPED ALONG BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM A COMPLEX IN NW KS. WHERE THESE MEET THIS AFTERNOON WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE OFF. THE BEST GUESS RIGHT NOW IS THAT THEY WOULD MEET ALONG THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE CONVECTION FIRED OFF SHOULD BE MORE ORGANIZED THAN CONVECTION FROM YESTERDAY GIVEN EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KTS. HOWEVER...FEEL SOME OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE DISORGANIZED ENOUGH TO PUT OUT OUTFLOWS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE OUTFLOWS COULD THEN FOCUS MORE CONVECTION AROUND THE AREA THIS EVENING. ALL IN ALL...HAVE INCREASED POPS TO AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SCATTERED WORDING USED. SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A THREAT GIVEN INCREASED SHEAR AND MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY 1500-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS SHOULD MOVE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING...BUT ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOTION, WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 12KFT, PWATS OF 1.5 INCHES, AND THIN CAPE PROFILES. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SHIFT NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT...WITH THE OK PANHANDLE AND NE TX PANHANDLE THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE PRECIP CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE OUTCOME OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS A SEASONALLY STRONG SHRTWV CROSSES THE PANHANDLES. FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY... UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD ACROSS THE AREA AS UPR RIDGING MOVES BACK WEST OVER THE REGION. THIS UPR RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NW UPR FLOW LIKELY RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLES BY MON AND TUE. PRECIP CHCS WILL LIKELY LULL AND BE QUITE ISOLATED FRI THROUGH SUN BUT INCREASE AGAIN MON-WED OF NEXT WEEK. TEMP-WISE... HIGHS TODAY WILL BE TRICKY BASED ON THE POSITION OF OUTFLOW AND FRONTS BUT GENERALLY STILL HOT IN THE SOUTH AND COOLING OFF SOME IN THE NORTH. HIGHS ARE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO FCST THU AS A FRONT OR POSSIBLY COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE AREA. THE GFS, ECMWF, AND GEM HAVE IT ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER THU AFTERNOON...GIVING US A MUCH WARMER DAY THAN THE NAM. HAVE TRENDED HIGHS WARMER TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION. FRI AND SAT SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL AND WITH A WARMING TREND BACK TO NORMAL AUGUST READINGS FOR SUN THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SIMPSON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMARILLO TX 95 68 93 65 86 / 50 40 20 20 20 BEAVER OK 90 69 87 68 83 / 50 60 40 40 20 BOISE CITY OK 86 65 83 62 81 / 60 50 40 30 20 BORGER TX 97 69 93 66 87 / 50 40 20 30 20 BOYS RANCH TX 97 70 93 68 86 / 50 40 20 30 20 CANYON TX 96 68 95 66 87 / 40 30 20 20 20 CLARENDON TX 99 70 97 69 89 / 40 40 20 20 20 DALHART TX 91 65 89 64 83 / 50 40 30 30 20 GUYMON OK 90 67 88 66 83 / 60 50 40 30 20 HEREFORD TX 96 68 94 65 87 / 40 30 20 20 20 LIPSCOMB TX 94 69 92 69 85 / 50 50 30 30 20 PAMPA TX 95 68 93 64 86 / 50 40 20 20 20 SHAMROCK TX 98 70 97 71 89 / 50 40 20 20 20 WELLINGTON TX 101 71 100 72 92 / 40 40 20 20 20 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 13/09  FXUS64 KAMA 102100 AFDAMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 400 PM CDT TUE SEP 10 2013 .DISCUSSION... THROUGH TONIGHT: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OUT OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND AFFECT THE WESTERN PART OF THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT, BUT THINK LOW CLOUDS WILL BE THE MORE LIKELY BET. WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW AS MOISTURE INCREASES. LIKE WE SAW TODAY, IT WON'T TAKE MUCH TO GET SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER LUNCH DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.30 INCHES AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S. IT WON'T BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS, BUT WE EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO BE GREATER TOMORROW THAN IT HAS BEEN TODAY. WE DON'T EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER, BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS. COVERAGE SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TOMORROW EVENING, BUT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN PWAT VALUES ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS GREATER THAN 10,000 FEET. THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY GET AN ADDED BOOST FROM A COLD FRONT THAT SLIPS INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 60 CORRIDOR. ONCE AGAIN, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. FOR THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY TIGHT PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM NORTHWEST (HIGHEST TOTALS) TO SOUTHEAST (LOWEST TOTALS). WE'RE NOT CONFIDENT EXACTLY THIS GRADIENT WILL SET UP, BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL BE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN DUMAS AND AMARILLO. FRIDAY-TUESDAY: NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY, BUT THERE CONTINUE TO BE MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT LEAD TO LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THE END OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CLOSELY AS IT MAY MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY NEXT WEEK. JACKSON && .FIRE WEATHER... NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND 20-FOOT WINDS REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMARILLO TX 64 81 62 82 62 / 10 40 30 40 20 BEAVER OK 68 89 66 85 64 / 5 20 20 50 50 BOISE CITY OK 62 81 59 77 60 / 20 40 40 50 50 BORGER TX 68 85 67 83 65 / 5 30 30 50 30 BOYS RANCH TX 66 82 63 80 61 / 20 40 40 50 40 CANYON TX 63 81 60 82 61 / 10 40 30 40 20 CLARENDON TX 67 85 64 90 65 / 5 20 10 20 10 DALHART TX 63 81 60 78 60 / 20 40 40 50 50 GUYMON OK 67 84 62 81 63 / 10 40 40 50 50 HEREFORD TX 63 80 59 81 60 / 20 40 30 50 20 LIPSCOMB TX 66 88 66 88 64 / 5 20 20 40 40 PAMPA TX 65 84 66 85 62 / 5 20 20 40 30 SHAMROCK TX 68 89 65 91 64 / 5 5 5 20 10 WELLINGTON TX 68 91 66 91 64 / 5 5 5 10 10 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ EA/JJ  FXUS64 KAMA 222053 AFDAMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 353 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014 .DISCUSSION... THROUGH TONIGHT: THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE, MAINLY DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME TOPOGRAPHIC INFLUENCE FROM UPSLOPE FLOW IMPINGING ON THE CAPROCK AND PALO DURO CANYON. THE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THIS AREA IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG, BUT EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT. SHORT HODOGRAPHS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME WEAKLY ORGANIZED AND SLOW MOVING MULTICELL CLUSTERS. THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WATER LOADING WITHIN THE UPDRAFT, AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES UP TO 1400 J/KG AND NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH. A LESSER RISK FOR LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HAIL GROWTH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 400 AND 600 J/KG. THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS OCCUR ED IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ARE AIDING/ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. IN FACT, THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLE IS ALSO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES 25 TO 30 KT. THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL REMAIN ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS, BUT A LOOSELY ORGANIZED SUPERCELL OR TWO CAN'T BE DISCOUNTED. THE SAME PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST, BUT IF THERE IS A SUSTAINED, DISCRETE SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS, A 2-INCH HAIL STONE ISN'T COMPLETELY OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS OUTFLOW FROM DECAYING STORMS LEADS TO UPSCALE GROWTH AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO MOVES OUR WAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE WEST OF A BEAVER TO CLAUDE LINE. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD END BY 11 PM. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BY 1 AM, BUT A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. REGARDING THIS SECOND ROUND, MODELS ARE HINTING AT A MESOSCALE BOUNDARY (PROBABLY AIDED BY CONVECTION) DEVELOPING FROM NEAR VEGA TO BEAVER. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST, DIFFLUENCE ALOFT INCREASES, AND WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME LIFT FROM A JET STREAK. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, A 30-KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL USHER IN IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND CONFLUENCE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PANHANDLES. HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS IN PLACE. FURTHERMORE, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.40 INCHES OVERNIGHT, WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTION SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS WITH A WARM CLOUD DEPTH >8,000 FT, MINIMAL MID- OR UPPER- LEVEL DRY AIR FOR ENTRAINMENT, AND A TALL, SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. THE MEAN DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL ALMOST BE PARALLEL TO THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH CORFIDI VECTOR MAGNITUDES LESS THAN 10 KT, ARGUING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING STORMS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE NEAR THE MESOSCALE BOUNDARY, SO WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH WHERE THIS SETS UP LATER THIS EVENING. FRIDAY-THURSDAY: VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THIS PERIOD EXCEPT SOME TWEAKS TO POPS. OVERALL, THE IDEA OF THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES BEING THIS WEEKEND REMAINS ON TRACK. SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE, AND IN FACT, SUNDAY ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IF THE ATMOSPHERE ISN'T TOO WORKED OVER. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY PULLS OFF TO THE EAST. ADDED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BEHIND A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. JACKSON && .FIRE WEATHER... NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS EITHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT AND/OR 20-FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALMOST EVERY DAY IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...AND THEY COULD POSE A SMALL RISK FOR FIRE STARTS DUE TO LIGHTNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMARILLO TX 61 76 60 76 58 / 70 50 30 70 60 BEAVER OK 62 77 62 82 62 / 60 60 40 50 60 BOISE CITY OK 55 76 57 77 54 / 70 40 30 70 40 BORGER TX 63 80 61 80 62 / 70 60 30 70 60 BOYS RANCH TX 61 79 62 78 56 / 70 50 40 70 60 CANYON TX 59 77 61 75 57 / 70 50 30 70 60 CLARENDON TX 63 79 62 76 61 / 40 60 30 60 60 DALHART TX 56 77 58 76 54 / 70 40 40 70 50 GUYMON OK 59 77 60 81 58 / 70 50 30 70 50 HEREFORD TX 58 78 61 75 56 / 70 50 40 70 60 LIPSCOMB TX 62 76 62 81 63 / 60 60 40 50 60 PAMPA TX 61 77 60 76 60 / 60 60 30 60 60 SHAMROCK TX 64 80 63 80 63 / 30 60 30 50 60 WELLINGTON TX 66 82 64 80 63 / 30 60 30 50 60 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ JG/AM/JJ  FXUS64 KAMA 272337 AFDAMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 637 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015 .AVIATION... GENERALLY IMPROVING FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AT KGUY AND KDHT THROUGH THE EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEFLY REACHING MVFR AT EITHER TERMINAL IN THE SHORT TERM BUT BY MID EVENING VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. KAMA WILL BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE WITH IFR BECOMING MVFR BY MID TO LATE EVENING AND MVFR PROBABLY PERSISTING UNTIL EARLY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. BRB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015/ DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHERN TEXAS TONIGHT. THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN A WRAP AROUND BAND OF SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THIS RAIN EVENT WILL BE COMING TO AN END. POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN IT WILL SET UP SHOP OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY AND THEN IT WILL GET SUPPRESSED BY SUNDAY WHICH WOULD ALLOW A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER. THESE WAVES COULD TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 17/11