FXUS61 KAKQ 302024 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 424 PM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STEERING MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LONGWAVE IR IMAGERY INDICATE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM FL ACROSS EASTERN GA INTO SC. THIS CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO STREAM NORTHWARD AS A VIGOROUS TROUGH (-4 ST DEV PER SREF STANDARDIZED ANOMALY) DIGS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE...A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FURTHER CONSTRICTING THE FLOW OVER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD. VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOW A QUASI-STATIONARY BAND OF CONVECTION FROM CENTRAL NC NNE THROUGH THE EASTERN VA PIEDMONT. INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE MOVING NNE AND ARE PRESENTLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. GIVEN THIS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING NOW FOR THE AKQ EASTERN VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NNE AS A +3 ST DEV SOUTHERLY 850MB JET SPREADS NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST...AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2IN BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BECOMES EFFECTIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE PIEDMONT...WITH LESSER (OR MORE LOCALIZED) AMOUNTS EAST. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE LOWEST GRIDDED FFG VALUES IN THE AREA ARE IN THE EAST (CHOWAN BASIN AND LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE)...SO SOME OF THERE AREAS WILL NOT TAKE MUCH RAIN TO HAVE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A STRONGLY BLOCKED PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR FLOODING. 30/12Z GEFS MEAN INDICATES A -3 TO -4 ST DEV 500MB TROUGH OVER THE DEEP SOUTH UNDERNEATH A +3 ST DEV RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA. MEANWHILE...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS TO AROUND +2 ST DEV. THIS PATTERN SLOWLY RETROGRADES THROUGH TUESDAY...AND THEN MORE SO BY WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE FURTHER STRENGTHENS AND SHUNTS THE TROUGH CENTER WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. NUMERICAL MODELS DO TEND TO SHIFT BLOCKED PATTERNS TOO QUICKLY...SO ANY IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE OPTIMISTIC. A MOISTURE RICH AIRSTREAM/FRONTAL BAND WILL CONTINUE TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE (POTENTIALLY TROPICAL) AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED N-S ALONG THE EASTERN US. SREF V-WIND ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO SHOW +3 ST DEV ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND VA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING WEST WEDNESDAY. A 100+KT JET WITHIN THE 250-300MB WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER A CORRIDOR FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD ATLANTIC CANADA...WITH THE MID ATLANTIC UNDER THE FAVORABLE RRQ REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH IDEAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DEEP NEAR SATURATED MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDINGS (PW POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 2.2IN) SHOULD LEAD TO EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES/DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE ENTIRE TIMEFRAME AS EMBEDDED WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW SHOULD TRIGGER BANDS/OCCASIONAL LARGER AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (WITH MODEST INSTABILITY). GIVEN THIS... PURELY DETERMINISTIC QPF WILL BE DIFFICULT AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE TRIGGERED BY QUASI-STATIONARY BANDS OF CONVECTION. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXTEND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR NOW...BUT COULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S (PERHAPS UPPER 70S IN A FEW AREAS IF RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY). LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH A WARM HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE AS DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE BERMUDA HIGH FARTHER INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN. THIS TREND WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/AIRMASS BACK TO THE WEST WITH A POTENTIAL DRYING TREND FROM FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. SINCE THE HIGH GRADUALLY FLATTENS DURING THIS TIME...AFTN THUNDERSTORMS STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT HAVE SHOWED A DECREASING TREND IN PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR A DRIER AIRMASS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD LEAD TO A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS WELL. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WHICH IS NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 18Z...CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND TO THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AND AFFECTING KRIC AND KSBY. DID NOT NOT INCLUDE THUNDER DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY. COASTAL SITES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. MVFR STRATUS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES DUE TO THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT DUE TO MID LEVEL ENERGY SWINGING THROUGH THE SE/MID ATLC ALONG WITH THE EXTREMELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. UNSETTLED WX IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A STRONG UPR-LVL TROF BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. ALONG WITH THAT...A SFC FRONTAL BNDRY HAS STALLED OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND THE THREAT FOR SOME PATCHY STRATUS OR FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT. NOTE...INTERMITTENT KSBY OBSERVATIONS DUE TO CONTINUING COMMS ISSUES. && .MARINE... LATEST WIND SPEED OBSERVATIONS OVER CHES BAY AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER HAVE DECREASED IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES. WILL HOLD OFF ON CANCELLING SCA FLAGS UNTIL ADDITIONAL OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THIS TREND. OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...SUSTAINED SLY WINDS WILL REMAIN AOB 15 KT WHILE SEAS HOVER BTWN 4-6 FT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN...LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING. FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS ON MON AS THE BERMUDA HIGH STARTS SHIFTING TWD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST. THIS SET-UP SHOULD ALLOW ONE LAST CHANCE FOR A SLY SURGE FROM MID-MORNING MON INTO TUE BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT ALL WATERS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL STAY AROUND 4-5 FT THROUGH TUE (6 FT SEAS POSSIBLE N OF CAPE CHARLES LIGHT NEAR 20 NM)...AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE TUE EVENING. SCA FLAGS FOR COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH TUE DUE TO PERSISTENT SEAS OF 5 FT. ALSO...A 2ND ROUND OF LOW-END SCA FLAGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND/LOWER JAMES RIVER TO ACCOUNT FOR WINDS OF 15-20 KT. CHES BAY/CURRITUCK HEADLINES BEGIN MON MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. LOWER JAMES RIVER HEADLINES ALSO BEGIN MON MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY MON EVENING. THE BERMUDA HIGH INFILTRATES THE COAST FROM WED INTO THE WEEKEND. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE VARIABLE FROM SE-SW AND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOB 15 KT ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FT AND WAVES ON CHES BAY WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR MDZ021>025. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ063-064-070>100. FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ048-049- 060>062-065>069. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR VAZ099- 100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630>632-634-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...DAP MARINE...BMD  FXUS61 KAKQ 010746 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 346 AM EDT MON JUL 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY DRIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STEERING MOISTURE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS UPR-LVL TROF OVER THE LWR MS VALLEY. AT LO LVLS...A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED FRNTAL BNDRY WILL PERSIST OVER VA TDY. WAVES OF LO PRES AND DEEP MOIST SLY FLOW EAST OF THE UPR-LVL TROF AXIS WILL LEAD TO SHRAS AND A CHC OF TSTMS OVER THE FA. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO RAIN THE ENTIRE DAY AS FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK AND THERE WILL BE SEVERAL BREAKS IN THE RAIN COVERAGE. HOWEVER...VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND AREAS OF TRAINING WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. SVR WX NOT EXPECTED DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLD COVER AND WEAK LAPSE RATES/CAPE (MAIN THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND PWATS ~2-2.3 IN). TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN THE MID 80S THIS AFTN UNDER A CLDY SKY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A STRONGLY BLOCKED PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THE CONTINUED THREAT FOR FLOODING. 30/12Z GEFS MEAN INDICATES A -3 TO -4 ST DEV 500MB TROUGH OVER THE DEEP SOUTH UNDERNEATH A +3 ST DEV RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA. MEANWHILE...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS TO AROUND +2 ST DEV. THIS PATTERN SLOWLY RETROGRADES THROUGH TUESDAY...AND THEN MORE SO BY WEDNESDAY AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE FURTHER STRENGTHENS AND SHUNTS THE TROUGH CENTER WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. NUMERICAL MODELS DO TEND TO SHIFT BLOCKED PATTERNS TOO QUICKLY...SO ANY IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE OPTIMISTIC. A MOISTURE RICH AIRSTREAM/FRONTAL BAND WILL CONTINUE TO TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE (POTENTIALLY TROPICAL) AS IT BECOMES ORIENTED N-S ALONG THE EASTERN US. SREF V-WIND ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO SHOW +3 ST DEV ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND VA THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING WEST WEDNESDAY. A 100+KT JET WITHIN THE 250-300MB WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER A CORRIDOR FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD ATLANTIC CANADA...WITH THE MID ATLANTIC UNDER THE FAVORABLE RRQ REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH IDEAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DEEP NEAR SATURATED MOIST ADIABATIC SOUNDINGS (PW POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 2.2IN) SHOULD LEAD TO EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES/DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE ENTIRE TIMEFRAME AS EMBEDDED WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW SHOULD TRIGGER BANDS/OCCASIONAL LARGER AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (WITH MODEST INSTABILITY). GIVEN THIS... PURELY DETERMINISTIC QPF WILL BE DIFFICULT AS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE TRIGGERED BY QUASI-STATIONARY BANDS OF CONVECTION. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S (PERHAPS UPPER 70S IN A FEW AREAS IF RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY). LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH A WARM HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE AS DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE BERMUDA HIGH FARTHER INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN. THIS TREND WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE/AIRMASS BACK TO THE WEST WITH A POTENTIAL DRYING TREND FROM FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. SINCE THE HIGH GRADUALLY FLATTENS DURING THIS TIME...AFTN THUNDERSTORMS STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT HAVE SHOWED A DECREASING TREND IN PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THE POTENTIAL FOR A DRIER AIRMASS AND MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD LEAD TO A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AS WELL. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WHICH IS NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... PCPN ASCTD WITH CRNT S/W NRGY MOVG NE ALONG THE I95 CORRIDOR AND WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST BUT IN A WEAKENED STATE NXT FEW HRS. SO HAVE GONE WITH A TEMPO GROUP MOST AREAS NEXT 2-4 HRS. KEPT THUNDER OUT AS LIGHTNING TRACKER HAS SHOW LTL ACTIVITY PAST HR. SPORATIC IFR STRATUS PSBL SPCLLY AT RIC WHERE IT RAINED PAST FEW HRS. OTW MVFR CIGS WITH PSBL VSBLTY RESTRICTIONS IN ANY HEAVIER SHWR. WITH NEXT S/W RIDING NE ALONG THE E COAST THIS AFTRN/EVE. ADDNTL CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DVLP AFTR 18Z AND CONT THRU REST OF FCST PRD. UNSETTLED WX PERSISTS THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A STRONG UPR-LVL TROF BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS. ALONG WITH THAT...A SFC FRONTAL BNDRY HAS STALLED OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND THE THREAT FOR SOME PATCHY STRATUS OR FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR/MVFR MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH INTERMITTENT IFR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SHORT PERIODS OVERNIGHT...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH HEAVIER PCPN. NOTE...AMD NOT SKED AT KSBY DUE TO CONTINUING COMMS ISSUES AND LACK OF ASOS WIND DATA. && .MARINE... FIRST S/W MOVG N ACROSS THE MID ATLNTC RGNTHIS MORNING WITH SCND S/W PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE RGN THIS AFTRN/EVE. ADJUSTED HEADLINE START/END TIMES A BIT...BUT WILL CONT THE MARGINAL SCA'S (15-20KTS) FOR THE CHES BAY/CURRITUCK SND AREAS TODAY/TONITE ALTHOUGH WNDS MAY TEND TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER MIDNITE TONITE. ALSO CAPPED SEAS AT 5 FT SINCE SEAS HAVE NOT REACHED ABOVE 5 FT GIVEN THE PERSISTANT SRLY FLOW OVR THE PAST FEW DAYS. EXPCT IMPROVING CNDTNS MID-LATE WEEK PRD AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE WATERS. XPCT SRLY WNDS AOB 15KTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FT WED THRU FRI. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MDZ021>025. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025. NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ012>017-030>032- 102. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ048-049-060>100. MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>634-656- 658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAS NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAS LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...MPR MARINE...MPR  FXUS61 KAKQ 220242 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 942 PM EST SAT DEC 21 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLY COOL AND DRIER WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... THE LATEST WEATHER ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THAT. DYNAMIC/VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE ACRS THE CONUS WITH MAIN SFC LOW LIFTING NNE ACROSS WESTERN KY/SOUTHERN IN AND PROGGED TO TRACK NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUN. RECORD HIGHS WERE SET AT A FEW LOCATIONS THIS PAST AFTERNOON (SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS). AS UPPER RIDGE HOLDS STRONG OFF THE SE COAST EXPECT THIS TO KEEP BULK OF ANY PRECIP OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT (WILL CARRY JUST A 20% POP OVER THE FAR WESTERN ZONES AFTER 08Z). BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST THAT LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT ACRS MOST OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY ALONG/WEST OF I-95. WENT WITH WARMEST GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT DUE TO LACK OF PRECIP AND CONTINUED MIXING/SSW WINDS. MOST AREAS CAN EXPECT MINS BETWEEN 60-65 F TONIGHT...WELL ABOVE AVG DAYTIME HIGHS THIS TIME OF YR (THIS SHOULD EASILY SET RECORD HIGH MINS FOR SUNDAY/DEC 22/SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... LATEST SUITE OF MODELS INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT ACRS THE MID ATLC...PRIMARILY SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THERE REMAIN SOME KEY DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND PRECIP AMOUNTS...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STILL THE FASTEST TO BRING QPF INTO THE REGION ON SUN...AND IS THE FARTHER EAST WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP. THE NAM IS THE SLOWEST/FARTHEST WEST WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF ARE PROBABLY THE BEST COMPROMISE AT THIS POINT AND APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT PRECIP OVER THE MIDWEST AND DEEP SOUTH. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX...THIS TRANSLATES INTO BEST FORCING AND HIGHEST CHC FOR PRECIP OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUN AFTN/SUN NIGHT...WITH ONLY A CHC ACRS FAR SE VA/NE NC. THIS IS DUE TO THE APPROACHING CDFNT BEING SLOWED AS IT ADVANCES EWD...ENCOUNTERING STRONG SFC HI PRES OFF THE CST. CONTD SSW WNDS AND ENOUGH FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPS WELL ABV NORMAL AGAIN. NOT ONLY WILL DAILY RECORD MAX TEMPS BE CHALLENGED/SURPASSED...ALL TIME RECORD VALUES FOR DEC MAY BE WITHIN REACH AS WELL (BEST CHC FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE AT NORFOLK WHERE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOWER AND CLOUDS WILL BE LESS). BY THE LATE AFTN/EVE HRS...CLDNS XPCD TO INCRS...ESP AWAY FM THE CST. ALG W/ THAT INCRS IN CLDNS...POPS WILL BE INCRSG (TO 60%% W...15-30% E...BUT AWAY FM THE IMMEDIATE CST) AS THE CDFNT FM THE W DRAWS CLOSER. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS/INSTABILITY LIMITED...BUT WILL CONT W/ SLGT CHC THUNDER ACRS FAR WSW AREAS SUN AFTN AND FARTHER EAST SUN EVENING. THE FNTL BNDRY IS XPCD TO STALL INVOF CNTRL/WRN PORTIONS OF THE FA SUN NGT INTO MON MRNG. MDL TIME SECTIONS SHOWING DEPTH OF MOISTURE QUITE EXTENSIVE (ALL THE WAY TO 200-300MB)...ALG W/ DP LYRD UVM. GIVEN DEPTH OF MOISTURE...COVERAGE/STRENGTH OF UVM AND SLO MOVEMENT E OF THE FNT...MDT TO POTENTIALLY HVY RA PSBL...INITIALLY FM SCNTRL VA NE THROUGH RIC/PTB CORRIDOR TO PORTIONS OF THE ERN SHR LT SUN NGT/MON MRNG...WHICH SHIFTS VERY SLOLY ESE MON AFTN/EVE INTO SE VA/NE NC. WIDESPREAD QPF OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES XPCD...AND WILL INCLUDE SLGT CHC THUNDER AS WELL. HI TEMPS SUN FM THE 65-70 ON THE NRN OUTER BANKS...THE L/M70S ON THE ERN SHORE...TO 75 TO 80F ELSW. LO TEMPS SUN NGT FM THE M50S NW TO M60S SE. HI TEMPS MON FM THE L/M60S NW...TO L/M70S SE (TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO FALL IN MOST AREAS AS THE FNTL BNDRY PUSHES SLOLY TO THE SE ACRS THE FA). DRY BUT MUCH COLDER W/ HIGHS IN 40S TUE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH COLD CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS VALLEY BUILDING OVER THE REGION CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S ON CHRISTMAS DAY (LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S CHRISTMAS MORNING). MODELS SEEM TO BE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WRT EXPECTATION OF COOL/DRIER WX IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING PREDOMINATE WNW FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES INCH BACK A BIT TOWARDS NORMAL ON THU, BUT DROP BACK FRI/SAT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO ERY FRI. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE SEASONABLE CHILL IN PLACE BUT W/THE STRONGER FORCING WELL TO OUR NORTH (AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH) WILL KEEP POPS AT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHC. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVG NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THERE IS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT FOR IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES. MODERATE S/SW WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN BEING STRATUS RATHER THAN FOG. T/TD SPREAD WAS RELATIVELY SMALL SATURDAY EVENING AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. HAVE IFR BEGIN AT ROUND 04-07Z. SREF IFR PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHEST TO THE WEST AND AFFECT RIC FIRST. HAD ECG START EARLY DUE TO THE LOW DEW POINT SPREAD. CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING IS LOW. MARINE FOG IS EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NC/VA BEACH AND SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE COAST BUT SW WINDS SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. GUSTY S/SW WINDS ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO MOS FORECASTS AND NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS WITH KEEPING IFR AROUND TIL AROUND 15-16Z. CHANCES FOR PCPN ARE TOO LOW INCLUDE IN THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z. OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND SPREAD TO THE COAST BY AFTN. THIS WILL END FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MVFR/OCNL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE PCPN. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. DRY/VFR CONDS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MARINE... LATEST OBS REFLECT CONTINUED SW FLOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WHICH REMAINS OFFSHORE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SSW FLOW INCREASES LATE TNGT INTO SUN MORNING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT SW WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING SUNDAY IN THE CHES BAY/ AND CURRITUCK SOUND, BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING. STRONG WAA (TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 SUN) OVER COOL WATERS PRODUCE WEAK LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT MUCH OF THE HIGHER VELOCITY WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE BAY AND SOUND AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING SUNDAY OVER THE BAY AND SOUND. A SECOND ADVY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE BAY, SOUND AND RIVERS. OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, CONTINUE TO SEE VERY SLOW INCREASE IN SEAS AS LONG SE FETCH CONTINUES TO MAKE FOR CHOPPY SEAS (THOUGH STILL SUB-SCA NEARSHORE AND SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. AS WINDS INCREASE, EXPECT SEAS TO ALSO INCREASE OVERNIGHT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES...WITH SEAS EVENTUALLY APPROACHING 5FT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT WILL BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AT DAWN SUN MORNING AND RUN THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND THIS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION/WATERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. S-SW CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AFTN, BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY THE N-NW (AND PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MOD SHRAS) ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT MON NGT INTO TUE. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AS WINDS TURN OFFSHORE TUE NGT. WINDS BECOME NE BY LATER WED...AS HI PRES BLDS TO OUR N ON ON XMAS DAY. && .CLIMATE... UNSEASONABLY WARM WX EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THROUGH 9 PM TODAY...RECORDS THAT HAVE BEEN SET: ORF...SET RECORD HIGH: 73 SBY...SET BOTH RECORD HIGH AND RECORD HIGH MIN: HIGH 70/LOW 54 ECG...SET RECORD HIGH: 72 RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR: SAT 12/21 SUN 12/22 ALL TIME DEC RECORD HIGHS --------- --------- ------------------------- RIC 73/1956 74/1923 81/DEC 6 & 7TH (1998) ORF 71/1956 76/1967 80/DEC 6 (2013)...12/3/1991...12/4/1978 SBY 66/1956 70/1949 77/DEC 6 & 7TH (1998) ECG 70/1973 77/1967 81/DEC 9 (1978) & *12/3/1991 RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR: SAT 12/21 SUN 12/22 ALL TIME DEC RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS --------- --------- -------------------------------------- RIC 54/1956 55/1923 63/DEC 8 (1953) ORF 58/1951 58/1923 68/DEC 1 (2006) SBY 50/1990 56/1990 61/DEC 5 (1973) & 27TH (1949) ECG 60/1951 60/1984 66/DEC 9 (1978) * ELIZABETH CITY RECORDS FROM 1983-1998 ARE FROM CO-OP SITE (NOT KECG). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...LSA MARINE...MAM CLIMATE...AKQ  FXUS61 KAKQ 231526 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1026 AM EST MON DEC 23 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY BRINGING A RETURN TO SEASONABLY COLD AND DRY WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC COLD FRONT JUST E/SE OF MARTINSBURG WV...ALIGNED SSW TO BETWEEN LYH/ROA AS OF 10 AM. OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN PREVAIL ACRS AKQ CWA...WITH SOMEWHAT MORE SHOWERY CHARACTERISTICS ALONG/E OF I-95. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE GENLY 1.50" TO 1.75" PER 12Z SOUNDINGS AND MODEL DATA. DEW PTS ARE IN MID-UPPER 60S SE AND 60-65 ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THIS AND WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUING TO SHOW STRONG LIFT AND SATURATION TO 250 MB FOR SEVERAL MORE HRS...HAVE ADDED MENTION OF "HEAVY RAIN" INTO GRIDDED FORECAST THROUGH EARLY AFTN NW AND THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACRS THE SE. FOR THE EVENT THUS FAR/THROUGH 10AM...QPF HAS AVERAGED 1.00" TO 1.50" OVER MOST OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL VA...CLOSER TO 0.50" OR LESS OVER THE ERN SHORE AND SE VA/NE NC. THE FNTL BNDRY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT E OF I95 BY EARLY/MID AFTN...AND WILL BE SLOW IN MOVING TO THE CST BY LATE AFTN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVG 1-2" THROUGHOUT...BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS HAVE BEEN SHORT-LIVED SO DO NOT SEE NEED FOR FLOOD WATCH ATTM AND CAN HANDLE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS W/ SPS OR FLS PRODUCTS IF NECESSARY. AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...CURRENT READINGS RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 60S NW..TO THE LOW 70S SE. EXPECT MINIMAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY AFTN...WITH STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS (ESP NW AFTER 18Z). ALSO...SEE UPDATED CLIMATE SECTION FOR SUMARY OF RECORDS SET THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLE RECORDS TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... BY 00Z/TUE (THIS EVENING) BULK OF LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE COASTAL AREAS AS SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING OFFSHORE. SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN PSBL THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG THE COAST..WITH LIKELY POPS FOR LESSER QPF AMOUNTS HANGING BACK TOWARD CENTRAL VA. SLOW DRYING FROM WNW TO ESE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HAVE CONT TO TREND A LITTLE SLOWER KEEPING LIKELY TO CAT POPS THROUGH DAYBREAK ALONG THE COAST. LOWS IN THE LOW 30S NW TO THE LOW 40S SE. MODELS CONT TO PUSH A S/W ALOFT ACRS THE FA BY TUE AFTN. FORCING IS FAIRLY STRONG EVEN THOUGH IT IS FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED. AFTER BRIEF CLEARING TUE MORNING EXPECT A BUILD UP OF AFTN CU AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS (ESP ACRS THE N). HAVE GONE W/ POPS ABT 20% N AND E TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO AVG FOR LATE DEC...BUT WILL BE DRAMATICALLY COLDER COMPARED TO RECENT WARMTH W/ HIGHS LWR 40S N TO UPPER 40S IN NE NC. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUE NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S. MOSTLY SUNNY/COLD CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE U30S N TO L40S S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... GENERALLY DRY WX WITH NEAR SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPS AND COOL MORNINGS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER/SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST THURS AS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER SYSTEM TRAVERSE THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. A FAST MOVING DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THURS-EARLY THURS NIGHT...REINFORCING THE COLD AIR OVER THE REGION. MODELS LESS OPTIMISTIC WITH LIFTING A WAVE ALONG A COASTAL TROUGH THURS AND SPREADING PRECIP INTO THE SE LOCAL AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SE VA/NE NC...BUT BEST MOISTURE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 40S-LOW 50S THURS BEFORE COOLING BACK INTO THE LOW-UPPER 40S FRI. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN FRI THRU THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS OVER CANADA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 40S SAT AND INTO THE LOW 50S SUN AS RETURN FLOW COMMENCES. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S-LOW 30S. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACRS THE REGION AND OFF THE CST TODAY INTO TUE MORNG. RAIN SHOWERS WILL SHIFT EWRD AND THRU THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH VFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY BECOMING MVFR THEN IFR CONDITIONS...AS THE PCPN SPREADS INTO AND OVR THE TAF SITES. SSW WINDS 5 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 20 KT...ESPLY OVR SE VA AND NE NC...WILL SHIFT TO THE N BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG. DRY/VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TUE THRU FRI...AS MAINLY HI PRES DOMINATES THE REGION. && .MARINE... COLD FRONT HAS REACHED WRN VA THIS MORNING AS THE PARENT LOW LIFTS THRU THE NE STATES. BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE WATERS THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. SCA HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT THRU THE DAY. STRONGER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT AND REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN 1NM. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A STRONG NWLY SURGE FOLLOWING. GUSTS UP TO 30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE WATERS. .PREV DISCUSSION... STRONG SSW WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THRU EARLY THIS AFTN...THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AND N AND INCREASE THIS EVENG INTO TUE...AS THE FRONT PUSHES OUT TO SEA AND HI PRES BLDS IN FM THE W. GOOD CAA/NORTHERLY SURGE EXPECTED LATE TNGT INTO EARLY WED MORNG...SO HAVE ADJUSTED SCA HEADLINES AND NOW HAVE SCA'S FOR ALL WTRS EXCEPT THREE RIVER ZNS (635-636-637) THRU LATE TUE NGT. HI PRES WILL BLD OVER THE WATERS CHRISTMAS DAY...AS CAA WANES...LIKELY BRINGING AN END TO SCA CONDS. EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED SEAS ALSO EXPECTED INTO EARLY WED...ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN CSTL WTRS. && .HYDROLOGY... AN AREA OF HIGHER RA AMTS SINCE SUN AFTN FOUND INVOF FAR WSW PORTIONS OF FA. W/ ADDITIONAL/XPCD QPF OF 1-2 INCHES TDA INTO TNGT...RIVER LEVELS FCST TO REACH 3/4 BANK FULL OR A LTL HIGHER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. && .CLIMATE... SUMMARY OF RECORDS SET THIS WEEKEND: SAT 12/21 (HIGHS) ------------------------ ORF 73 F (PREVIOUS REC 71F) SBY 70 F (PREVIOUS REC 66F) ECG 72 F (PREVIOUS REC 70F) SUN 12/22 (HIGHS) ------------------------ RIC 76 F (PREVIOUS REC 74F) ORF 81 F (PREVIOUS REC 76F) *SETS NEW RECORD FOR DEC (PREVIOUS 80F) SBY 77 F (PREVIOUS REC 70F) *TIES RECORD FOR DEC (ALSO SET IN 1998) ECG 78 F (PREVIOUS REC 77F) SUN 12/22 (HIGH MINS) ------------------------ RIC 62 F (PREVIOUS REC 55F) ORF 59 F (PREVIOUS REC 58F) SBY 63 F (PREVIOUS REC 56F) *SETS NEW RECORD FOR DEC (PREVIOUS 61F) ECG 65 F (PREVIOUS REC 60F) RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR: MON 12/23 --------- RIC 73/1990 ORF 77/1990 SBY 71/1990 ECG 75/1990 * ELIZABETH CITY RECORDS FROM 1983-1998 ARE FROM CO-OP SITE (NOT KECG). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>634- 638-650-652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...TMG MARINE...TMG HYDROLOGY...AKQ CLIMATE...AKQ  FXUS61 KAKQ 171742 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 142 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINTAINING A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG HIGH OVER MAINE (1045 MB AT BANGOR AT 14Z) RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLC. MOST OF THE AREA HAD A CLEAR SKY. STRATOCUMULUS COVERED THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND HIGH THIN CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS TOWARD THE COAST BUT MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE DOMINANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 55 TO 60 WELL INLAND WITH 50 TO 55 NEAR THE COAST. THE BEACHES OF THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE MAY STAY BELOW 50. FOR TONIGHT...TRENDS IN MODELS SUGGEST A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY SO EVEN WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT LITTLE OR NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES. LOWS INLAND MAINLY 35-40 F...40-45 F NEAR THE COAST. WILL ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST IN RURAL AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WITH THE AFTN FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MODELS AGREE WITH TROUGH PUSHING A BIT CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA (ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW OVER GA/FL) FRI INTO EARLY SAT. IN MID LEVELS THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING ALONG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US. THIS ENERGY IS NOT WELL HANDLED BY ANY OF THE MODELS, SO PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. FOR NOW, HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/ECMWF (GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FRI NIGHT/SAT). STILL...WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN/SE 1/3 OF THE AREA, WITH CHANCE POPS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MOS GUIDANCE, WHICH KEEPS MOST MINS IN THE 40S THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. BY SAT AFTN ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CLEAR THE SKIES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT PUSHES THE TROUGH FARTHER OFF THE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY GETTING BACK TO THE MID 60S SE TO AROUND 70 F NW. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A LONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL EXTEND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS SAT NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOW EXPECTED TO STAY SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND THEN TRACK NE WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH SUN. THE STRETCHED OUT SFC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS. A RELATIVELY FLAT (WEST TO EAST ORIENTED) FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOVING OFFSHORE BY WED MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A SUBSEQUENT SFC LOW TRAVELING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAY BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON MON/TUE. GFS PRECIP-GENERATION AND GENERAL MOVEMENT CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE/FAST VERSUS THE ECMWF. HAVE THEREFORE TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH THE POP FORECAST...LEANING TWD SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING TO THE ONSET OF PRECIP MON NIGHT AND LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE ON TUE TO NO HIGHER THAN 40 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. EXPECT LOWS NEAR NORMAL BOTH NIGHTS IN THE 40S (LOWER 50S POSSIBLE IMMEDIATE SE VA/NE NC COASTS). HIGHS SAT/SUN RANGE FROM ROUGHLY 65 DEGREES FAR NE TO 70 DEGREES SW. AS THE FLAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTS TO SAG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MON THROUGH WED...THE TEMP FORECAST BECOMES TRICKY IN REGARD TO WHERE EXACTLY THE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPS. WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AT SOME POINT MON NIGHT...INCREASING CIRRUS DURING THE DAY MON SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WEST OF I-95 WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST OF I-95 (MID-UPPER 60S MD/VA EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS TUE SHOULD BE IN THE LOW-MID 70S INLAND AND IN THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE CHES BAY AND ATLANTIC COASTS. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS ON WED IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON MON/TUE/WED NIGHTS SHOULD ALSO BE WARM WITH READINGS IN THE 50S (OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ARE COMBINING TO KEEP WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST. WINDS FROM 950 TO 850 MB ARE BECOMING MORE EAST AND CAN SEE THE CLOUDS WORKING BACK INTO THE COAST LINE NOW. THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THESE CLOUDS RETURNING. USING THE EXPERIMENTAL GOES MVFR PROBABILITY IMAGES CAN SEE THE PROBABILITY OF CLOUDS BEING MVFR INCREASING OVER THE OCEAN. AT THIS TIME DO NOT BELIEVE CIGS WILL DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE. HOWEVER THE SREF PROBABILITIES DO SHOW SOME CHANCE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOST EASTER TERMINALS FOR THE PERIOD FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NONE OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ANYTHING BUT VFR CONDITIONS. ALL MODELS SHOW SIMILAR TIMING ON THE CLOUDS ARRIVING AND WILL BRING BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO ALL BUT RIC DURING THE EVENING AND REACHING RIC AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT THE MOISTURE ON FRIDAY WITH CLOUDS LIFTING TO VFR FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING. OUTLOOK...DUE TO CONTINUED RATHER STRONG HI PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE CHC FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRI NGT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE PORTIONS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHC FOR SHOWERS FRI NGT. ALSO STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY FOR CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US BUT BY SUNDAY SHOULD BE VFR. && .MARINE... WINDS OVER THE RIVERS HAVE DROPPED TO 10 TO 15 KTS. OVER THE BAY AND COAST WINDS CONTINUE 15 TO 20 KTS. SCA FLAGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTN FOR NRN CHES BAY ZNS...AND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE SRN CHES BAY. HI PRES WILL SLIDE ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY THRU FRI...MAINTAINING NE WINDS OVR THE WTRS. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SEAS TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FT FOR ALL CSTL WTRS THRU AT LEAST LATE FRI NGT. FRI NGT THRU MON...LO PRES WILL TRACK ACRS FLORIDA...THEN ENE WELL OFF THE MID ATLC CST. WHILE...HI PRES WILL BLD FM THE NRN GRT LAKES EWRD ACRS NEW ENGLAND AND OFF THE CST. THIS SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY N OR NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT ACRS THE WTRS FRI NGT THRU MON. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ632-634. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ630- 631-638. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652- 654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/LSA SHORT TERM...LKB/JAB LONG TERM...BMD AVIATION...TMG/JAB MARINE...TMG/JAB  FXUS61 KAKQ 090700 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 200 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... CURRENT ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE I-81 CORRIDOR NEAR HARRISONBURG VA...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING E FROM THE SFC LOW ACRS NRN VA INTO THE DELMARVA. SEEING A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THIS FRONT WITH READINGS STILL WELL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AS OF 03Z OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN VA AS WELL AS INTERIOR NE NC WITH A SW FLOW. MEANWHILE...CHILLY UPPER 30S TO LOWER-MID 40S PREVAIL IN LIGHT E FLOW OVER THE ERN SHORE. SKIES ARE STILL MAINLY CLEAR BUT SATELLITE SHOWS THAT SKIES SHOULD CLOUD OVER FROM NW TO SE OVER THE NEXT 3-6 HRS. PRECIP TRENDS SUGGEST A SLOWER ARRIVAL FROM THE NW WITH NOT MUCH CHANCE FOR ANYTHING UNTIL SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK SO SCALED BACK ON ANY RAIN CHANCE UNTIL AFTER 10Z (AND ONLY A 20-30% POP ACRS THE NW). RAISED MINS SLIGHTLY OVER INTERIOR SRN 1/2-2/3 OF THE CWA WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED MIXING WITH MINS MAINLY BETWEEN 45-50 F EXPECTED. LOWERED MINS A DEGREE OR TWO INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S ON THE ERN SHORE BASED MAINLY ON CURRENT OBS (NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A DROP FROM CURRENT READINGS). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... WEAK SFC LOW PRES WILL TRACK ACRS THE FA ON MON...REACHING THE CST IN THE EVE. MCLDY W/ INCRSG POPS (TO HI CHC/LIKELY) IN THE AFTN...ALONG W/ THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR FM THE N AS WNDS BECOME N IN THE AFTN (EXCEPT IN SE VA/NE NC). HI TEMPS IN THE M/U50S ON THE EASTERN SHORE TO THE L/M60S ELSW. TEMPS LIKELY TO BEGIN FALLING IN THE AFTN N AND NW. MODELS BRING IN SGFNT MOISTURE MON EVE...THEN AS THE LO IS SLOW TO EXIT THE CST INTO TUE (MRNG)...THE PCPN CHCS ARE SLOW TO LWR ACRS THE FA. WILL HAVE HI CHC TO LIKELY POPS MON NGT...GRADUALLY LOWERING ON TUE FM W TO E. THERE MAY BE A MIX OF RA/SN ON THE LWR MD ERN SHORE LT MON NGT/TUE MRNG AS COLDER AIR SPREADS S BEHIND DEPARTING LO PRES. A RETURN OF MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID 30S N-NW TO NR 40F SE. HIGHS TUE MNLY IN THE 40S...SOME SUNSHINE RETURNS BY TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS. DRY W/ NR SEASONABLE CONDS TUE NGT THROUGH WED. LO TEMPS TUE NGT MNLY 25-30F...HI TEMPS WED FM THE M40S NE TO THE L50S SW. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. DEEP/ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL ANCHOR OVER THE ERN CONUS...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANOMALOUS WRN CONUS RIDGE. FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH CLIPPER SYSTEMS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WITH THE FIRST ONE ARRIVING THURS. SFC LOW LIFTS OVER THE NE STATES...WITH THE TRAILING FRONT SWINGING THRU THE REGION THURS AFTERNOON. STRONG CAA PROGGED THURS NIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS PLUMMETING NEARLY 20C THURS-FRI. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW FOR THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE LATE THURS TO GO ALONG WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND THERMAL ADVECTION...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES AS ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXITS THE COAST. COLD/DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS SPREADS INTO THE REGION FRI AS THE NEXT CANADIAN IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI-FRI NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT PUSHING THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION SAT WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA LATE SAT. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS SAT AFTERNOON-EVENING...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE SOURCE. NEXT ARCTIC AIR MASS SPREADS OVER THE REGION SUN AS 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURS...TEMPS EXPECTED TO LOW-MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. TEMPS DROP QUICKLY LATE THURS...FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FRI MORNING. TEMPS ONLY REBOUND INTO THE LOW-MID 30S FRI...15-20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. UPPER 20S MD ERN SHORE. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO ONLY PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S SAT. COLD SAT NIGHT WITH TEMPS BACK INTO THE TEENS-LOW 20S. TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AGAIN SUN. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SSW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS OF 06Z...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NRN VA TO THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE. SURFACE OBS ACROSS SRN NJ/NRN DE INDICATE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS WITH CIGS AOB 500FT AND VSBY ~2SM. IT IS HARD TO GAUGE HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL ADVECT SSW...BUT THE GOES IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT DOES INDICATE AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS OVER THE DELAWARE BAY DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE 00Z NAM TIME-HEIGHT CROSS-SECTION POINTS TO A WINDOW AROUND 10-14Z FOR SBY...SO THIS WILL BE USED AS A FIRST GUESS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS TO PRECEDE 8-10KFT CIGS...WHICH ARE SPREADING S ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL VA. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD TODAY REACHING RIC AROUND 12Z...PHF/ORF CLOSER TO 18Z...AND ECG AROUND 22Z ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NE. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 5-8KFT TODAY...WITH SBY EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR AFTER 14Z. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT AND REACHES THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AREAS OF -RA ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF IFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PCPN TO END AS A WINTRY MIX AT SBY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OFF THE COAST TUESDAY RESULTING IN PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A STRONG GUSTY NW WIND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W FRIDAY. && .MARINE... LATEST WEATHER ANALYSIS OVER THE REGION DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE RESULT IS SW WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. FEW GUSTS STILL UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THRU THE AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER BAY AND JAMES/YORK RIVER...BUT DURATION IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING SCA HEADLINES. LOW PRESSURE AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MON. FLOW BECOMES NLY LATE MON NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW EMERGES OFF THE ERN NC COAST. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN TANDEM WITH MODEST LOW- LEVEL CAA WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS LATE MON NIGHT. WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT BAY/SOUND/COASTAL WATERS...WITH 15-20 KT AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ERN VA RIVERS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOW END GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND SOUND AS THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN TANDEM WITH 35-40 KT NELY LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY PRODUCE GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. WILL HOLD OFF ON GALE HEADLINES ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND BEST TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. WAVES BUILD TO 3-5 FT AND SEAS 5-9 FT (10 FT SRN WATERS). STRONG NLY WINDS PERSIST TUES AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG. WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TUES NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS...FINALLY DROPPING BELOW SCA CONDS WEDS. SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS WEDS BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THURS. STRONG CAA AND PRESSURE RISES SUGGEST GALE CONDITIONS. SEAS EXPECTED TO DROP BRIEFLY BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT-THURS...BEFORE BUILDING BACK TO 5-8 FT LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634>638-650-652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ633- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...SAM  FXUS61 KAKQ 090900 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 400 AM EST MON FEB 9 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BY MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... CURRENT ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE I-81 CORRIDOR NEAR HARRISONBURG VA...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING E FROM THE SFC LOW ACROSS NRN VA INTO THE DELMARVA. THERE REMAINS QUITE A NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THIS FRONT WITH READINGS STILL IN THE LOW/MID 50S AS OF 09Z OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SRN VA AS WELL AS INTERIOR NE NC WITH A SW FLOW. MEANWHILE... CHILLY MID/UPR 30S TO LOWER-MID 40S PREVAIL IN LIGHT E FLOW OVER THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THICKEN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FA LATER TODAY...REACHING THE COAST THIS EVE. RECENT PRECIP TRENDS STILL SUGGEST A SLOWER ARRIVAL FROM THE NW WITH NOT MUCH CHANCE FOR ANYTHING UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THEREFORE...HAVE REMOVED POPS THROUGH 12Z. POPS INCREASE RAPIDLY AFTER 15Z...AND EXPECTING BULK OF PCPN TO FALL AFTER 18Z WITH ARRIVAL OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC LOW. HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO WARM INTO UPR 50S NORTHERN NECK TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH INTO NC AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEFORE FALLING THIS AFTN. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE...MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN THE 40S TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT BRINGING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BY THIS EVE...THEN AS THE LOW IS SLOW TO EXIT THE COAST INTO TUE MORNING...THE PCPN CHANCES ARE SLOW TO LOWER ACROSS THE FA. WILL HAVE LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE POPS MOST PLACES TONIGHT...GRADUALLY LOWERING ON TUE FM W TO E. QPF AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 0.25-0.60" (HIGHEST SE VA/NE NC). THERE MAY BE A BRIEF MIX OF RA/SN FROM AROUND CAROLINE COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN NECK OVER TO THE LWR MD ERN SHORE TUE MORNING AS COLDER AIR SPREADS S BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HOWEVER...NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURN TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 30S N-NW TO AROUND 40F SE. HIGHS TUE MAINLY IN THE LOW 40S...SOME SUNSHINE RETURNS BY TUE AFTN...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS. DRY W/ NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS TUE NGT THROUGH WED. LOW TEMPS TUE NGT MAINLY 25-30F...HIGH TEMPS WED FROM THE MID 40S NE TO THE LOW 50S SW. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER THE CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. DEEP/ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL ANCHOR OVER THE ERN CONUS...DOWNSTREAM OF AN ANOMALOUS WRN CONUS RIDGE. FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH CLIPPER SYSTEMS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WITH THE FIRST ONE ARRIVING THURS. SFC LOW LIFTS OVER THE NE STATES...WITH THE TRAILING FRONT SWINGING THRU THE REGION THURS AFTERNOON. STRONG CAA PROGGED THURS NIGHT WITH H85 TEMPS PLUMMETING NEARLY 20C THURS-FRI. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN/SNOW FOR THE NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE LATE THURS TO GO ALONG WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND THERMAL ADVECTION...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES AS ANY REMAINING PRECIP EXITS THE COAST. COLD/DRY ARCTIC AIR MASS SPREADS INTO THE REGION FRI AS THE NEXT CANADIAN IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRI-FRI NIGHT. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT PUSHING THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION SAT WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOCAL AREA LATE SAT. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL AREAS SAT AFTERNOON-EVENING...CLOSEST TO BEST MOISTURE SOURCE. NEXT ARCTIC AIR MASS SPREADS OVER THE REGION SUN AS 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURS...TEMPS EXPECTED TO LOW-MID 40S NORTH TO MID 50S SOUTH. TEMPS DROP QUICKLY LATE THURS...FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FRI MORNING. TEMPS ONLY REBOUND INTO THE LOW-MID 30S FRI...15-20 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. UPPER 20S MD ERN SHORE. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO ONLY PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S SAT. COLD SAT NIGHT WITH TEMPS BACK INTO THE TEENS-LOW 20S. TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 30S AGAIN SUN. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SSW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS OF 06Z...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NRN VA TO THE LOWER MD ERN SHORE. SURFACE OBS ACROSS SRN NJ/NRN DE INDICATE POST-FRONTAL STRATUS WITH CIGS AOB 500FT AND VSBY ~2SM. IT IS HARD TO GAUGE HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL ADVECT SSW...BUT THE GOES IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT DOES INDICATE AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF STRATUS OVER THE DELAWARE BAY DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE 00Z NAM TIME-HEIGHT CROSS- SECTION POINTS TO A WINDOW AROUND 10-14Z FOR SBY...SO THIS WILL BE USED AS A FIRST GUESS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS TO PRECEDE 8-10KFT CIGS...WHICH ARE SPREADING S ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL VA. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD TODAY REACHING RIC AROUND 12Z...PHF/ORF CLOSER TO 18Z...AND ECG AROUND 22Z ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO NE. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 5-8KFT TODAY...WITH SBY EXPECTED TO LIFT TO MVFR AFTER 14Z. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT AND REACHES THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AREAS OF -RA ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION WITH AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF IFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PCPN TO END AS A WINTRY MIX AT SBY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OFF THE COAST TUESDAY RESULTING IN PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND A GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A STRONG GUSTY NW WIND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W FRIDAY. && .MARINE... LATEST WEATHER ANALYSIS OVER THE REGION DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OH VALLEY. THE RESULT IS SW WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. FEW GUSTS STILL UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THRU THE AFTERNOON OVER THE LOWER BAY AND JAMES/YORK RIVER...BUT DURATION IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING SCA HEADLINES. LOW PRESSURE AND THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION MON. FLOW BECOMES NLY LATE MON NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW EMERGES OFF THE ERN NC COAST. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN TANDEM WITH MODEST LOW- LEVEL CAA WILL PRODUCE SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS LATE MON NIGHT. WINDS AVG 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT BAY/SOUND/COASTAL WATERS...WITH 15-20 KT AND GUSTS TO 25 KT ERN VA RIVERS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOW END GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE SRN COASTAL WATERS AND SOUND AS THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT IN TANDEM WITH 35-40 KT NELY LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY PRODUCE GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. WILL HOLD OFF ON GALE HEADLINES ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND BEST TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. WAVES BUILD TO 3-5 FT AND SEAS 5-9 FT (10 FT SRN WATERS). STRONG NLY WINDS PERSIST TUES AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG. WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TUES NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS...FINALLY DROPPING BELOW SCA CONDS WEDS. SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT WEDS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS WEDS BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE WEDS NIGHT AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NW. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THURS. STRONG CAA AND PRESSURE RISES SUGGEST GALE CONDITIONS. SEAS EXPECTED TO DROP BRIEFLY BELOW 5 FT LATE WEDS NIGHT-THURS...BEFORE BUILDING BACK TO 5-8 FT LATE THURS-THURS NIGHT. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634>638-650-652-654. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ633- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...SAM AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...  FXUS61 KAKQ 151619 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1119 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds over the southeast states. A weak trough of low pressure pushes through the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states on Wednesday...with high pressure then building over the local area Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest visible satellite imagery depicts a narrow band of stubborn low clouds extending from Richmond southward into interior northeast North Carolina. GOES cloud thickness tool indicates the deck is thinning as it slowly pushes east. HRRR indicates the cloud band will dissipate by 17-18Z. Otherwise, mid level clouds persist over the northeast forecast area as additional upper level energy pivots around the upper low over Pennsylvania. Some light radar returns observed along the Potomac. Light rain is possible across the Northern Neck, but do not anticipate anything measurable. Cyclonic flow persists over the region today as additional energy digs into the Southeast states, reinforcing the upper trough over the eastern US. Cold air advection wanes as 850mb temperatures level off around 3-4C. Latest statistical guidance continues to back off slightly on high temperatures today, but with mostly sunny conditions southeast to partly cloudy northeast expect temps to warm into the upper 50's to around 60 northwest to low to mid 60's elsewhere. Mostly clear tonight with lows in the mid to upper 30's inland to the low to mid 40's near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The next northern stream disturbance (located over the northern Plains as of Tue morning) digs into the northern Mid- Atlantic region by Wednesday morning. Model trends are somewhat weaker with this feature and the shortwave looks to become sheared out as it reaches the local area. An associated cold front is forecast to push across the forecast area during the afternoon. Moisture will be limited along the boundary, with precipitable waters at or below one half inch. Slightly more moisture across the northeast, but overall think the limited moisture and dry sub-cloud layer will be too difficult to overcome and have gone with a dry forecast (as the energy and lift will be more likely to just generate clouds). Sky averages mostly sunny southwest to partly cloudy (possible mostly cloudy for a time late Wednesday afternoon/Wed evening) northeast. Highs mid 60s SW to around 60 F MD eastern shore. Shortwave pushes offshore late Wednesday night as the front pushes offshore. Clearing skies overnight, with lows generally in the upper 30's to low 40's inland to mid to upper 40's near the coast. Heights build Thursday as an anomalous upper level ridge builds over the eastern half of the US. High pressure builds into the region, centering over the Mid-Atlantic region Thursday afternoon. GFS/ECMWF show 850Mb temperatures rising from +3 to +6C at 12z/Thu to around +10 to +12C (+1 standard deviation) by 00z/Fri. However, soundings show a subsidence inversion around 900-875 mb thu aftn so that surface temperatures will not warm as much as the rising 850 mb values would suggest. Still a nice day under sunny skies and highs rising to the mid-upper 60s well inland to the low 60's along the coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The long term begins with an upper level ridge over the area providing dry and mild weather. An upper level trough over the Great Plains will move east and dig south through the Mid Atlantic States by Sunday. A cold front is progged to cross the area Saturday evening. Moisture with the front will be limited but have POPS of 20 to 30 percent affecting the CWA with light rain showers. Enough cold air aloft pours in Sunday to suggest a little snow could mix in. The colder air Sunday will come on drying northwest winds. With surface temperatures well above freezing...kept it all rain at this point. A large polar high pressure system begins to build in from the west late Sunday and Monday. High temperatures well into the upper 60s/lower 70s Friday, will lower slightly to the 60s/around 70 F and Saturday, then fall off significantly and only be in the lower to the mid 50s Sunday and around 50 F on Monday. Lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Friday through Sunday mornings lower to the 30s Monday morning. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Sfc low pressure off the Delmarva will continue to track NNE. Variable low clouds/Cigs to IFR/LIFR will continue through 14Z, fog will generally remain W/SW of the Taf sites (though may affect RIC). Conditions improving from mid/late morning on as low pressure pulls well away to the NE. Beginning this afternoon...most of the period will be dry with high pressure dominating. A weak front/sfc trough crossing the region will bring a period of BKN cloud cover,mainly affecting northern portions Wed aftn/evening. Dry/VFR Thu and Fri. Another round of showers is possible late Sat/Sat night as a stronger cold front moves through. && .MARINE... SCA headlines remain in place until 7 am this morning for the entire Ches Bay, and until 1 pm this aftn for the entire coastal waters. Early this morning, sfc low pressure was cntrd just off the MD/VA coast. The low will lift NNE to just east of Long Island by this evening. Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots will diminish to 5 to 10 knots by early tngt. Seas 3 to 5 ft will subside to 2 to 4 ft. Benign marine conditions then expected for tngt/Wed as high pressure builds twd the area fm the west. A weak cold front crosses the area late Wed/Wed ngt, with at most marginal SCA conditions possible behind the front late Wed ngt into Thu aftn. High pressure then builds over the waters for late Thu into Sat morning. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/SAM SHORT TERM...LKB/SAM LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...LKB MARINE...TMG  FXUS61 KAKQ 250853 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 353 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front over northern North Carolina will continue to move south today. High pressure will wedge into the Middle Atlantic today into Monday. A cold front will pass across the region on Tuesday, brining a chance for rain showers. High pressure builds across the region again for Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Happy Holidays from NWS Wakefield! Latest surface analysis suggests rising surface pressures across the region in response to the ridge axis extending into the Middle Atlantic from the anticyclone over the Great Lakes. This is allowing drier low level air to move southward and into the northern part of the forecast area allowing some of the dense fog to disipate north of RIC. However...low level moisture is now pooled along the VA/NC border just north of the frontal boundary. This seems to be where the worse visiblities are occurring. As such...have just issued a dense fog advisory for south central VA and NE NC, along with the current advisory for the rest of the forecast area. May be able to drop parts of the advisory north of I-64 before 12z especially given the latest trends in observations and improvement noted in the GOES IFR Probability from University of Wisconsin. For now, will keep all headlines as is, however I will have to extend the eastern shore advisory until 12z given the low vsbys at SBY and MFV and WAL. Otherwise...today should be a fairly tranquil day. Clouds should gradually clear out along the coast and to the I-95 corridor today. However, given the NE flow, mostly cloudy skies will persist along the piedmont all day. This will keep temps in the upper 40s along the piedmont to mid 50s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... he forecast thinking through mid week remains unchanged. Sfc high pressure will persist across the area through Monday. Warm advection develops aloft in response to the deep trough over the northern MS Valley ejects into the Great Lakes. The models suggest some broad/weak isentropic lift late Monday into Monday night with the NAM even suggesting some light QPF in this broad accent. At this time given the dry low level airmass from the surface high do not expect any precip to occur. However...there will likely be an increase in clouds ahead of front. A weakening cold front will pass through the area on Tuesday bringing a chance for showers. However...given that the best upper energy will be sheared out well north of the area do not expect any significant rain from this system. Will maintain chance pops across the area on Tuesday but the models are in fair agreement that any shower activity will be falling apart as it moves through on Tuesday. Big change for Tuesday will be the mild temperatures ahead of the front with most places well into the 60s. Would not be totally shocked if NE NC sees temps close to 70. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Long term period starts out dry Tuesday night/Wednesday as cold front pushes south of area, and weak high pressure builds into the region. Models diverge with regard to the amount of moisture/precipitation in advance of strong cold front moving into and across the region Thu/Thu night. GFS much drier, maintaining strong contribution from northern stream jet. ECMWF consistently wetter, allowing Gulf of Mexico to open up in advance of southern stream shortwave embedded in mean westerly flow. Superblend represents a middle of the road solution, with 30-40 percent POPS. Have gone with that compromise, which maintains consistency with yesterday's extended. Behind this front, strong cold advection ensues, with temperatures falling below normal in the Thu night through Friday night time frame. Temperatures moderate day 7 (Saturday), as high pressure moves offshore in advance of next system. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Widespread LIFR conditions with vsbys at or below 1/4SM can be expected through much of the night at all of the sites except ECG where conditions will still be IFR. Conditions will likely improve at SBY first aft 09z then followed by ORF and PHF as drier air from the north moves southward. VFR conditions expected at all sites by 15z. OUTLOOK...Fog or stratus redevelops especially southern portions of the area. An onshore flow will increase low level moisture and result in low clouds during the day Monday with either MVFR or IFR ceilings...especially for RIC and ECG. The inversion should lift during Monday night or Tuesday as westerly flow develops and improves conditions. A cold front passes through during the day Tuesday with a chance for showers. High pressure then builds over the area Wednesday. Another cold front brings a chance for more showers on Thursday. && .MARINE... Marine dense fog advisories remain in effect for Rivers, Sound, Srn Ches Bay, and coastal waters from Cape Charles Light to Currituck Light through 700 AM this morning. Advisories may need to be extended through mid to late morning given little to no improvement to visibilities seen in widespread land observations of one quarter to one half mile ...particularly near the water. Will reassess closer to 700 AM. For the rest of today, sfc high pressure builds over Ontario/Quebec (extending down over the Mid Atlantic Region) and will push a stalled boundary farther south. Expect fog to lift/dissipate by mid to late morning. Winds n-nne aob 15kt with a few gusts to around 20kt possible over the coastal waters this aftn. Seas 2-3ft; waves 1-2ft. Main high pressure slides off the New England coast on Mon and the ridge breaks down over the waters throughout the aftn. East winds aob 10kt early will become more se by the aftn. Weak wedging remains in the lee of the mts as a very strong low pressure system tracks into the Upper Great Lakes Mon and across Ontario/Quebec Mon night. The pressure gradient tightens up late Mon night into Tue aftn ahead of the front and s-sw winds will increase to 15-20kt all coastal waters and Bay (possibly Sound and Lower James River). Seas generally build to 3-4ft in this timeframe (up to 5ft possible coastal waters north of Parramore Island). Waves generally 2-3ft. SCA flags will likely be needed for the aforementioned areas from late Mon night into late Tue morning (around 12 hours), however this would be a late 4th period start time and have decided to wait to issue SCA flags until either the aftn forecast package or later tonight. The cold front is expected to cross the waters Tue evening... followed by high pressure briefly returning to the area late Tue night into Wed. Winds become w and diminish briefly Tue evening... then become nw-n late Tue night with a brief surge expected into early Wed morning. Speeds average 10-15kt except the coastal waters which should average 15-20kt. SCA flags are not anticipated with this particular surge mainly due to little change in the overall airmass and a quick relaxing of the pressure gradient. Winds continue to diminish during Wed as high pressure slides overhead. Seas 3-4ft Tue evening...subsiding to 2-3ft Wed. Waves 1-2ft. A stronger cold front is expected to cross the waters on Thu...followed by another shot of colder Canadian air. South winds 10-15kt to start the day will become west by Thu aftn (directly behind the frontal passage) and increase to 15-20kt all waters except Rivers (Lower James River not included) Thu evening. Gusts of 25-30kt Bay/Sound/Ocean. These condition will persist into late Fri night until high pressure can build into the Mid Atlantic Region. Seas build to 4-7ft Fri morning. Waves build to 3-4ft Thu evening and persist into Fri night. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MDZ021>024. NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for VAZ048- 060>062-064-067>069-075>078-080>086-088>090-092-093- 095>100-509>525. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for VAZ065-066- 079-087. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ632>638- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MRD NEAR TERM...MRD SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM...WRS AVIATION...MRD/LSA MARINE...BMD  FXUS61 KAKQ 231725 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 125 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary becomes nearly stationary across the Carolinas today. A strong low pressure system will cross the region through midweek...and bring periods of moderate to heavy rainfall to the region Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Pcpn moving more east than northeast as it advances from the SW. Still some BINOVC / thinning across the north due to the high moving east across PA. Think the pcpn eventually wins out as afternoon progresses so adjusted grids a bit. Main change was to change from a convective pcpn form to more stratiformed since we are on the cool side of the developing low (i.e. rain vs shwrs). Remaining cool with highs 55-60. PVS DSCN: Late morning MSAS has low pressure over nrn GA with the cold front extending east to near ILM then offshore. AKQ fa wedged in as high pressure to the north provides a cool NE wind. Rain associated with the first wave has diminished to some light rain over the south, even some BINOVC across the north. However, moisture from the second wave already making a beeline for the region from the SW. Thus, expect a cloudy, cool and increasingly wet afternoon ahead as this moisture overspreads the region. Exception will be across the lwr MD eastern shore where any rain will not arrive until late. Highs 55-60, coolest over the piedmont due to the developing in- situ wedge. Thunder chcs just about NIL due to the cool and rather stable airmass. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A cloudy and wet period to begin the work week. Periods of mdt to hvy rainfall expected Monday night and Tuesday. QPF btwn 1.5 to 3.5 inches (highest across the southern third of the area). Models in general agreement that aforementioned upr-level low cuts off as it tracks SE across the southeast and the coastal Carolinas. System then takes on a neg tilt Mon night that spawns a coastal low off the se coast Monday. Resultant strong coastal front will be conducive for heavy rainfall across the southeast CONUS, which will eventually move in our direction Late Monday night and Tuesday. Look for mainly cloudy skies with periods of mdt to locally hvy rainfall Mon/Tue as copious amounts of deep Atlantic moisture gets entrained north and rotates around the system. Thus, confidence remains high enough to go with likely to categorical pops each period. Kept high pops but low chc thunder along the coast. Highs Mon in the mid 50s-mid 60s except 65-70 sern coastal areas. Lows Mon nite in the upr 40s-lwr 60s. Highs Tue in the lwr 60s-lwr 70s. Hydro wise, no flood headlines anticipated attm with numerous breaks in between bouts of rain expected. Do expect some healthy rises in local river by early next week, especially if the heavy rainfall falls over the headwaters. Given the forecasted QPF and after coord with the RFC, expect minor flooding at Lawrenceville on the Meherrin River by Tue. Again, this based on QPF so plenty of time to adjust if needed. Rain tapers off from south to north Tuesday night as the upper low pivots offshore and NE of the Delmarva overnight into Wednesday morning. Early morning lows 55-60. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Long term period will feature a trend towards drier and warmer conditions. For Tue night, mid-level cutoff low and associated sfc low start to progress offshore, with some pcpn psbl on the backside of the systm. PoPs range from 20-40%. Warming trend then commences for Wed as deep SWly flow develops across the eastern seaboard, lasting through the end of the week with temps in the 70s Wed reaching the 80s most areas Thu and Fri. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure moving east across PA is keeping RIC/SBY VFR attm but MFVR conditions across the south with -ra movg east. Expect MVFR ST to become dominate cloud coverage across the entire area as the slug of rain overspreads the region. SBY will be the last to go MVFR probably closer to 00Z. After that expect widespread MVFR/IFR CIGS in areas of rain/fog for the rest of the forecast period as the system is slow to develop off the se coast. Gusty NE winds (15-25 kts at times) along coastal TAF sites. OUTLOOK...A well organized low will linger just off the Mid Atlantic coast through mid week before lifting ne and away from the area. Expect a continuation of MVFR and IFR conditions along with areas of rain/fog through Tues, slowly ending west to east Tues night. MVFR/VFR expected later in the week as high pressure moves in. && .MARINE... Northeast flow prevails over the marine area, between high pressure building into the Northeast and low pressure over the Southeast. Speeds are generally 15-20 knots, with marginal SCA conditions in the bay. Waves generally 2-3 feet and seas 3-6 feet (highest southern coastal waters). High pressure builds in from the northwest today as low pressure remains over the Southeast. Gradient winds relax later this morning into the afternoon, resulting in a brief lull in SCA conditions. Longer reprieve expected in the upper Bay, so have opted to drop the headlines mid morning. In the southern bay, marginal SCA conditions expected today with occasional gusts to 20-23 knots. Gusts of 20-25 knots also expected in the sound and southern coastal waters today. Seas average 4-6 feet. High pressure slides offshore tonight as low pressure slides toward the Southeast coast. The result will be an uptick in northeast winds tonight, with speeds of 15-25 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots in the coastal waters. Seas increase to 5-8 feet. Am concerned guidance is not handling the northeast flow and long period swell the best, so have opted to go above guidance on wave heights. There is the potential for high surf conditions as well, but there remains some uncertainty so have held off on high surf headlines. SCA headlines return for the rivers late tonight. Low pressure slides off the Southeast coast Monday and deepens. Strongest gradient winds begin to expand northward Monday, with speeds of 15-25 knots expected from the mouth of the bay northward. A brief lull is possible for the sound Monday. Seas remain 5-8 feet, but subside to 4-6 feet in the southern coastal waters. Waves 3-6 feet (highest in the mouth of the bay). Low pressure slowly lifts along the Southeast coast Tuesday and offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday night. Onshore flow and SCA conditions persist. Seas build upwards of 6-9 feet Tuesday. Flow becomes northerly Tuesday night as speeds diminish at or below 15 knots as the low lifts over the waters. Seas subside to 4-6 feet late Tuesday night. Waves 1-2 feet. The low weakens and lifts away from the region Wednesday as sub-SCA conditions return. Seas forecast to drop below 5 feet late Wednesday. The next front approaches the waters Friday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal departures are averaging 1 to 1.5 feet early this morning thanks to persistent onshore flow. Tidal departures will build today through midweek as onshore flow prevails ahead of an approaching area of low pressure. Majority of the tidal locations in the bay and Atlantic coast will reach action stage today and tonight, but no minor flooding is anticipated at this time. However, tidal departures increase to 1.5 to 2 feet Monday. Minor coastal flooding is expected during high tide Monday night and again on Tuesday, especially in the lower Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic waters. Depending on the exact track of the low, high end minor to low end moderate coastal flooding is possible Tuesday night. Departures subside Wednesday as low pressure lifts along the Northeast coast and flow becomes offshore. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Monday night for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634-650- 652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight EDT Monday night for ANZ638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...MAM/LSA MARINE...SAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  FXUS61 KAKQ 082103 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 403 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move across the area then off the coast tonight into Tuesday morning. High pressure builds into the region for later Tuesday morning into the first part of Wednesday, then slides out to sea late Wednesday and Wednesday night. A complex area of low pressure approaches from the west late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... A trough lifting newd through the Saint Lawrence Valley will drag a cold front into the area later this aftn into tonight. This front has tapped into some moisture ahead of a trough over the nrn Gulf Coast with light rain extending from the Piedmont to nrn VA later this aftn. Temperatures have climbed into the mid 30s to mid 40s and dewpoints are rising into the low 30s where rain is falling so no p-type issues are expected late this aftn into tonight. Light rain will spread across the nrn half of the area tonight and then diminish after 06z as drier air pushes in from the NW. Rainfall amounts will be light, mainly a T to 0.15". Some clearing is expected across the N late, which should allow lows to fall to around 30F, which could result in some re-freezing of melting snow. Farther S, lows should drop into the low/mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure returns Tuesday into Wednesday. Mainly dry with seasonal temperatures, although expect clouds to increase later Tuesday night into Wednesday as mid-level WAA commences. High temperatures Tuesday range from the 40s east of I-95 to around 50/lows 50s to the W. Lows Tuesday night drop into the mid 20s to low 30s, and this could result in some re-freezing of the melting snow. Highs Wednesday mainly range from the mid to upper 40s. High pressure offshore continues to extend inland into the Mid- Atlantic Wednesday night with low temperatures generally in the mid to upper 30s under a mostly cloudy sky. The low-level flow becomes more southeasterly during the day Thursday resulting in increasing temperatures and dewpoints along with 25-50% PoPs for showers by aftn as a shortwave trough pivots newd ahead of a broader trough to the W. Forecast high temperatures range from the mid 50s to low 60s Thursday with dewpoints rising into the upper 40s to mid 50s by aftn. This will bring the potential for areas of fog, especially after sunset Thursday aftn as warm moist air moves over cold ground with any remaining snow rapidly melting. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The latest medium range models are in fairly good agreement in a wet Thu Night into Friday Night as the strong southern stream system currently impacting southern California moves out into the plains, allowing fairly strong longitudinal flow to extend from the Gulf of Mexico. This will let deep moisture to stream into the area and overrun northward advancing warm front. As such, will continue with likely PoPs across the entire area Thursday Night and continue with likely PoPs on Friday. Not expecting heavy rainfall, but a general half inch of rain across the area. Of more concern, especially for marine interests, would be the potential for fog development Thursday Night into Friday. With the dewpoints rising into the 50s and even lower 60s, expect spring like fog to develop across the area. Will need to watch for dense fog especially close to the water as these high dewpoints will overrun the relatively cold 40-45 degree water. SREF LIFR probabilities close to 100% Thursday night gives confidence of the clouds/fog. Temps Thu Night will struggle to drop out of the mid 50s, while temperatures on Friday will likely be in the 60s. If any place across the west sees sunshine Friday afternoon, would not be shocked to see temps around 70. What a change from the past 2 weeks! Despite the upper and surface low staying west of the area, the models all agree that a strong dry slot will move into the area Friday night into Saturday. Will maintain low chance PoPs for Fri Night into Saturday to maintain forecast continuity, but it could end up being a dry period after Friday. In fact, even the cold front Saturday night may end up being dry as well but will maintain slight chance pops close to the coast Saturday night. Temps are expected to still be mild, but dropping back into the upper 40s/50s compared to 60s the day before. Quiet and much colder for Sunday into Monday as another round of cold air moves into the Middle Atlc. Highs Sunday in the 40s, and probably in the 30s on Monday as the high settles overhead and 850mb temps drop to -7 (ECMWF) to -15 (GFS). With the dry airmass and high pressure overhead, will most likely see lows in the teens/lower 20s Sun Night if not a tad colder. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front is pushing through the Ern Great Lakes this aftn, with a weak cold front trailing back through the Ohio Valley, and another area of low pressure over the nrn Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, surface high pressure is shifting offshore this aftn allowing for a SSW wind to increase to 10-15kt. Clouds will thicken and lower later this aftn into tonight as the cold front drops into the region, with cigs falling to MVFR later this evening and overnight through around 09z, with gradual improvement thereafter. A brief period of IFR cigs are possible at PHF/ORF later this evening through the early overnight hours. A period of light rain will accompany the cold front with the best chc of rain from RIC to SBY. Conditions gradually improve from N-S Tuesday as the cold front pushes offshore. This front will slowly lift back to the N as a warm front later Tuesday night into Wednesday resulting in mostly cloudy conditions. Low pressure approaches from the SW Thursday and Friday bringing a chc of rain. The associated cold front will push through the region Saturday. && .MARINE... Latest sfc analysis shows ~1030 mb high pressure centered near the NC coast with a cold front approaching the OH Valley. These features both push east tonight, with a continued decent pressure gradient over the northern coastal wtrs allowing for marginal SCA conditions through this eveng. Conditions then improve as the front approaches and drops through the area into Tue morning, with winds shifting back to the N then the E late Tue into Wed. Not a cold airmass and with water temperatures now very cold (in the 30s throughout the Bay and 40- 45 F on the ocean), do not anticipate this front bringing SCA conditions. Light ESE flow Wed, increasing into Thu with the potential for SCA conditions Fri as winds continue to strengthen and shift to the S in advance of a slow moving cold front. Fog with low vsbys also expected over the waters Thu night/Fri. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Have issued another round of Low Water Advisories over the southern Bay and rivers and coastal waters for tonight's low tide cycle. Tidal anomalies have risen slightly over past 12-24 hrs but remain low enough that most of the sites over these areas will bottom out around -1.0 to -1.5 ft MLLW. Following low tide cycles appear to be less of an issue especially towards midweek. && .CLIMATE... Historically cold start to 2018, all 4 main climate sites have started the year (Jan 1st- 7th) with the coldest avg temperature on record, by quite a large margin in most cases. Except at Elizabeth City NC where the period of record is significantly shorter, this current cold spell is still not the coldest of ANY 7-day period on record, for reference/comparison purposes, these have been included as well. 2018 January 1st through 7th Avg temperature Data: * Site Avg Temp Departure Prev Coldest * Richmond: 17.8 F (-20.2) 21.1 F (1918) * Norfolk: 22.0 F (-18.7) 24.1 F (1918) * Salisbury: 16.3 F (-19.6) 18.2 F (1918) * Eliz City: 19.9 F (-21.1) 31.1 F (1940) Coldest 7-day Period on record : * Site Avg Temp * Richmond: 11.4 F (2/9/1899-2/15/1899) * Norfolk: 15.6 F (12/29/1917-1/4/1918) * Salisbury: 11.3 F (12/29/1917-1/4/1918) * Eliz City: 19.9 F (current spell is coldest) * Today's record lows: - RIC -8 in 1970 - ORF 13 in 1970 *has been as low as 12 so far this am - SBY -4 in 1912 - ECG 16 in 1942 * has been as low as 10 so far this am && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Low Water Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ636>638. Low Water Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ632-634- 650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ650. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/TMG NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/TMG LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...MAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAS CLIMATE...AKQ  FXUS61 KAKQ 090902 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 402 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move across the area then off the coast tonight into Tuesday morning. High pressure builds into the region for later Tuesday morning into the first part of Wednesday, then slides out to sea late Wednesday and Wednesday night. A complex area of low pressure approaches from the west late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest wx analysis indicating sfc high pressure off to our NW with low pressure over the eastern gulf of Mexico. WNW flow prevails aloft and this flow is helping push a sfc cold front (a weak one) off to the NC coast early this morning. Some spotty light rain showers will linger through about 12Z across NE NC, and with clearing occurring farther NW, some patchy fog has developed over the Piedmont and may affect portions of the I-95 corridor through about 13Z. Genly does not appear to be dense fog as there is still some wind but locally dense fog will briefly be possible in a few spots. Lows will fall to around 30F NW, which could result in some re- freezing of melting snow. Farther S, lows should drop into the low/mid 30s. Sfc high pressure builds into the region today through this evening with dry conditions and mostly sunny skies. Highs today will avg in the lower 50s over south central VA to the upper 40s/around 50F I-95 corridor and mainly in the 40s farther east where a more significant snow cover remains. Expect clouds to increase later tonight into Wednesday morning as mid- level WAA commences Lows tonight in the mid 20s to around 30 F. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Partly sunny Wed morning then becoming mostly cloudy most areas in the aftn. Highs Wednesday mainly range from the mid to upper 40s. Any rain looks to stay off to our W. High pressure offshore continues to extend inland into the Mid- Atlantic Wednesday night with low temperatures generally in the mid to upper 30s under a mostly cloudy sky. The low-level flow becomes more southeasterly during the day Thursday resulting in increasing temperatures and dewpoints along with 25-50% PoPs for showers by aftn (and to 60% in south central VA). This as a shortwave trough pivots newd ahead of a broader trough to the W. Forecast high temperatures range from the mid 50s to low 60s Thursday with dewpoints rising into the upper 40s to mid 50s by aftn. This will bring the potential for areas of fog, especially after sunset Thursday aftn as warm moist air moves over cold ground with any remaining snow rapidly melting. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The latest 09/00Z suite of medium range models remain in fairly good agreement depicting a wet period from Thu Night into Friday Night as the strong southern stream system currently impacting southern California moves out into the plains, allowing fairly strong longitudinal flow to extend from the Gulf of Mexico. This will let deep moisture to stream into the area and overrun northward advancing warm front. As such, will continue with likely PoPs across the entire area Thursday Night with 1st batch of deep moisture and strong lift passes through the local area. Might be some breaks on Fri, but will maintain a high chc to likely PoP, with likely PoPs once again all areas fri night as the actual sfc low and frontal boundary moves closer to the region. Not expecting heavy rainfall, but a general 1/2" inch to 3/4" of rain across the area is expected. Of more concern, especially for marine interests, would be the potential for fog development Thursday Night into Friday. With the dewpoints rising into the 50s and even lower 60s, expect spring like fog to develop across the area. Will need to watch for dense fog especially close to the water as these high dewpoints will overrun the relatively cold 40-45 degree water. SREF LIFR probabilities close to 100% Thursday night gives confidence of the clouds/fog. Temps Thu Night will struggle to drop out of the mid 50s, while temperatures on Friday will likely be in the 60s. If any place across the west sees sunshine Friday afternoon, would not be shocked to see temps around 70. What a change from the past 2 weeks! Despite the upper and surface low staying west of the area, the models all agree that a strong dry slot will move into the area Friday night into Saturday. Will maintain low chance PoPs for Fri Night into Saturday to maintain forecast continuity, but it could end up being a dry period after Friday. In fact, even the cold front Saturday night may end up being dry as well but will maintain slight chance pops close to the coast Saturday night. Temps are expected to still be mild, but dropping back into the upper 40s/50s compared to 60s the day before. Quiet and much colder for Sunday into Monday as another round of cold air moves into the Middle Atlc. Highs Sunday in the 40s, and probably in the 30s on Monday as the high settles overhead and 850mb temps drop to -7 (ECMWF) to -15 (GFS). With the dry airmass and high pressure overhead, will most likely see lows in the teens/lower 20s Sun Night if not a tad colder. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Light rain pushing ESE and now moving off the NC coast. Skies have cleared out over most of VA and MD, and with light wind well inland starting to see some patchy fog. This may affect KSBY/KRIC briefly through 13Z but the dense fog is likely to remain isolated and out of TAF sites. Otherwise, W winds shift to the NNW and then the NE later today with skies becoming mostly sunny. Mainly clear tonight, some increase in clouds late but conditions look to remain VFR. Outlook...Some patchy low clouds/fog will be possible Wed night, but a more widespread/extended period of IFR and possibly LIFR conditions with rain/fog/low clouds looks probable from Thu aftn into Friday as warm and moist air streams into the area ahead of a low pressure system moving out of the southern Plains. Drier but a little breezy by Saturday. && .MARINE... A cold front reaches the coast early this morning...then continues offshore today. SW winds become NW this morning...then NNW this afternoon. Low level CAA very weak so not expecting much of a surge in speeds as winds shift. Sfc hi pres drifts over the waters after midnight tonight resulting in light NNE winds. Hi pres shifts off the coast Wed...w/ winds becoming ESE and remaining blo 15 kt. A bit of strengthening of the SE winds by Thu...though more likely to increase to SCA criteria in advance of a slow moving cold front (from the W). Due to increased moisture (on SE flow) over colder waters...FG w/ lo VSBYs anticipated Thu night-Fri. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Low tide cycles will continue to gradually rise through mid week (as winds turn more onshore). && .CLIMATE... Yesterday 1/8 set 2 more record lows at ORF (10F) and ECG (7F). That will be the end of the cold for awhile. Will keep the climo information going for another AFD cycle listed below. Historically cold start to 2018, all 4 main climate sites have started the year (Jan 1st- 7th) with the coldest avg temperature on record, by quite a large margin in most cases. Except at Elizabeth City NC where the period of record is significantly shorter, this current cold spell is still not the coldest of ANY 7-day period on record, for reference/comparison purposes, these have been included as well. 2018 January 1st through 7th Avg temperature Data: * Site Avg Temp Departure Prev Coldest * Richmond: 17.8 F (-20.2) 21.1 F (1918) * Norfolk: 22.0 F (-18.7) 24.1 F (1918) * Salisbury: 16.3 F (-19.6) 18.2 F (1918) * Eliz City: 19.9 F (-21.1) 31.1 F (1940) Coldest 7-day Period on record : * Site Avg Temp * Richmond: 11.4 F (2/9/1899-2/15/1899) * Norfolk: 15.6 F (12/29/1917-1/4/1918) * Salisbury: 11.3 F (12/29/1917-1/4/1918) * Eliz City: 19.9 F (current spell is coldest) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Low Water Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/WRS SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB LONG TERM...LKB/MRD AVIATION...LKB/MRD MARINE...ALB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ CLIMATE...AKQ  FXUS61 KAKQ 092107 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 407 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into the region tonight through Wednesday morning, then slides out to sea later Wednesday and Wednesday night. A complex area of low pressure approaches from the west late in the week. A cold front crosses the area on Saturday with a return to colder temperatures by Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... The current surface analysis places high pressure over the Ohio Valley and extending into the Mid-Atlantic, with low pressure well S of the region over the ern Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures have warmed into the mid 40s to mid 50s this afternoon under a mostly sunny sky, with some band of cirrus. The high is expected to gradually move ewd toward the Hudson Valley by late tonight/early Wednesday morning. The sky should remain mostly clear, before clouds increase from the W late as mid-level WAA commences. The best potential for fog will be along and E-of I95 as increasing clouds should at least lessen the duration of any fog over the Piedmont. Fog could become locally dense from e-central VA to the Ern Shore. Lows tonight range from the mid to upper 20s, with low 30s for coastal SE VA/NE NC. This could result in some re-freezing of melting snow. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure remains over the region through at least midday Wednesday, before gradually sliding offshore. Mostly cloudy Wednesday morning with the presence of mid-level WAA, and potentially becoming partly sunny by aftn. Mainly dry with seasonal temperatures with highs mainly in the mid to upper 40s. High pressure offshore continues to extend inland into the Mid- Atlantic Wednesday night with low temperatures generally in the mid to upper 30s under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. The low- level flow becomes more southeasterly during the day Thursday resulting in increasing temperatures and dewpoints along with 25-50% (near 60% for s-central VA) PoPs for showers by aftn as a shortwave trough pivots newd ahead of a broader trough to the W. Forecast high temperatures range from the mid 50s to low 60s Thursday with dewpoints rising into the upper 40s to mid 50s by aftn. Current guidance does suggest some relatively cooler air will be slow to erode over the Piedmont where highs may only stay around 50/low 50s. 09/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC remain in fairly good agreement depicting a wet period from Thursday Night into Friday Night as the strong southern stream system currently impacting southern California moves out into the plains, allowing fairly strong longitudinal flow to extend from the Gulf of Mexico. This will allow deep moisture to stream into the area and overrun northward advancing warm front. As such, will continue with likely PoPs across the entire area Thursday night as the first batch of deep moisture and strong lift passes through the local area. There might be some breaks on Friday, but will maintain a high chc to likely PoP, with likely PoPs once again all areas Friday night as the actual sfc low and frontal boundary moves closer to the region. There will be the potential for thunder with the main upper level trough Friday evening based on current guidance. Not expecting heavy rainfall, but a general 1/2" inch to 3/4" of rain across the area is expected. Of more concern, especially for marine interests, would be the potential for fog development Thursday Night into Friday with warm moist air over cold ground. With the dewpoints rising into the 50s and even lower 60s, expect spring like fog to develop across the area. Will need to watch for dense fog especially close to the water as these high dewpoints will overrun the relatively cold 40-45 degree water. SREF LIFR probabilities close to 100% Thursday night gives confidence of the clouds/fog. Temps Thu Night will struggle to drop out of the mid 50s, while temperatures on Friday will likely be in the 60s. If any place across the west sees sunshine Friday afternoon, would not be shocked to see temps around 70. What a change from the past 2 weeks! && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Long term period will generally be dominated by NW flow across the region, as broad upper trof persists over the eastern half of the U.S. Starting Saturday, surface low and associated cold front continue moving EWD/NEWD away from the region, with colder air and Canadian high pressure building into the region Saturday night through Monday. Expect a dry period, with temperatures starting above normal Saturday, then normal to below normal Sunday and Monday. High temperatures expected to be in the 50s on Saturday, with max temps likely reached early in the afternoon. Colder saturday night, with low temps in the 20s to around 30 degrees (warmest near the coast). High temps Sunday/Monday mainly in the 30s, except perhaps near 40 far SE on Sunday. Lows Sunday night in the teens N/CNTRL to low 20s SE. Lows Monday night mostly in the low to mid 20s. Models diverge in the Day 6 to 7 period, with GFS more aggressive in bringing next front and unsettled weather to the region, while ECMWF is slower, with region on the warm side of the next trough through Tuesday. Blended guidance takes the middle ground on Day 7, and have utilized that guidance for Tuesday/Tuesday night. This guidance does bring precip into the region Tuesday night, with rain and/or snow possible. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure extends from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic this aftn. The sky is mostly sunny with a band of cirrus from RIC to SBY along with a light wind. High pressure gradually slides ewd tonight becoming centered over the Hudson Valley by 12z Wednesday. Some mid-level clouds are expected to approach from the W later tonight as the high slides E. However, the sky should remain mostly clear much of the night at RIC and through the overnight and early morning hours at the coast. This combined with low-level moisture from snow melt will result in some areas of fog tonight, with vsby dropping to IFR/LIFR. The best potential for IFR/LIFR conditions will be at RIC/SBY/PHF/ORF. Conditions improve Wednesday morning with VFR conditions prevailing under passing mid and high clouds and a light onshore wind. Patchy fog/stratus is possible later Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. A more widespread/extended period of IFR and possibly LIFR conditions with rain/fog/low clouds looks probable from Thursday aftn into Friday as warm and moist air streams into the area ahead of a low pressure system moving out of the southern Plains. Drier but a little breezy by Saturday. High pressure locates W of the region by Sunday with low pressure well offshore. && .MARINE... Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the OH Valley with a cold front well off the Carolina coast. The high builds east into the Mid Atlc tonight, then just offshore Wed, leading to continued sub-SCA conditions. Expect winds mainly under 10 kt during this time with just 1-3 ft seas over coastal wtrs. S/SE winds then start increasing (to 10-15 kt) Thu as the pressure gradient increases ahead of the next complex low pressure systm. Similar wind direction into Thu night/Fri with the systm still west of the area, with winds/waves/seas all increasing. SCA conditions are likely, at least over the ocean due to seas aoa 5 ft. Fog with low vsbys also expected over the wtrs Thu night/Fri due to increased moisture over colder wtrs. Cold front crosses the area by Sat with high pressure returning for Sun. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Low tide cycles will continue to gradually rise through mid week (as winds turn more onshore). && .CLIMATE... Yesterday 1/8 set 2 more record lows at ORF (10F) and ECG (7F). That will be the end of the cold for awhile. Will keep the climo information going for another AFD cycle listed below. Historically cold start to 2018, all 4 main climate sites have started the year (Jan 1st- 7th) with the coldest avg temperature on record, by quite a large margin in most cases. Except at Elizabeth City NC where the period of record is significantly shorter, this current cold spell is still not the coldest of ANY 7-day period on record, for reference/comparison purposes, these have been included as well. 2018 January 1st through 7th Avg temperature Data: * Site Avg Temp Departure Prev Coldest * Richmond: 17.8 F (-20.2) 21.1 F (1918) * Norfolk: 22.0 F (-18.7) 24.1 F (1918) * Salisbury: 16.3 F (-19.6) 18.2 F (1918) * Eliz City: 19.9 F (-21.1) 31.1 F (1940) Coldest 7-day Period on record : * Site Avg Temp * Richmond: 11.4 F (2/9/1899-2/15/1899) * Norfolk: 15.6 F (12/29/1917-1/4/1918) * Salisbury: 11.3 F (12/29/1917-1/4/1918) * Eliz City: 19.9 F (current spell is coldest) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB LONG TERM...WRS AVIATION...AJZ/LKB MARINE...MAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ CLIMATE...AKQ  FXUS61 KAKQ 100904 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 404 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains over the region this morning, then slides out to sea this afternoon and evening. A complex area of low pressure approaches from the west late in the week. A cold front crosses the area on Saturday with a return to colder temperatures by Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Current analysis indicating sfc high pressure centered over the NJ coast, slowly retreating off to the NE. Thus far, the fog/freezing fog has been slow to develop but it still may occur over the next few hrs and the best potential for fog will be along and E-of I95 as increasing clouds should at least lessen the duration of any fog over the Piedmont (esp SW). Fog could become locally dense from e-central VA to the Ern Shore. Re- freezing of melting snow has occurred with temps mainly below freezing, but much of area has also dried out. Still, will maintain HWO/SPS mention for fog potential and slick spots through the am commute. High pressure gradually slides farther E/offshore later today. becoming mostly cloudy most areas this morning with the presence of mid- level WAA, and potentially becoming partly sunny by aftn. Mainly dry with seasonal temperatures with highs mainly in the mid to upper 40s N to the lower 50s south (potentially a little warmer if enough aftn sun develops). High pressure offshore continues to extend inland into the Mid- Atlantic tonight with low temperatures generally in the low to mid 30s under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The low- level flow becomes more southeasterly during the day Thursday resulting in increasing temperatures and dewpoints along with 25-50% (near 60% for s-central VA) PoPs for showers by aftn as a shortwave trough pivots newd ahead of a broader trough to the W. Forecast high temperatures range from the low- mid 50s in the Piedmont to low 60s acrs the SE Thursday with dewpoints rising into the upper 40s to mid 50s by aftn. This warmup may be slow to overspread much of the area, especially the Piedmont as the warm air initially over-runs the cool/damp airmass. As such, the highs may not occur until the evening hrs with midday readings holding in the 40s for much of the I-95 corridor and Piedmont. 10/00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC remain in fairly good agreement depicting a wet period from Thursday Night into Friday Night as the strong southern stream system currently impacting southern the SW CONUS moves out into the plains, allowing fairly strong longitudinal flow to extend from the Gulf of Mexico. This will allow deep moisture to stream into the area and overrun northward advancing warm front. As such, will continue with likely PoPs across the entire area Thursday night as the first batch of deep moisture and strong lift passes through the local area. There might be some breaks on Friday, but will maintain a high chc to likely PoP, with likely PoPs once again all areas Friday night as the actual sfc low and frontal boundary moves closer to the region. There will be the potential for thunder with the main upper level trough late Fri aftn and Friday evening based on current guidance. Not expecting widespread heavy rainfall, but a general 1/2" inch to 3/4" of rain across the area is expected with locally higher amounts possible. Of more concern, especially for marine interests, would be the potential for fog development Thursday Night into Friday with warm moist air over cold ground. With the dewpoints rising into the 50s and even lower 60s, expect spring like fog to develop across the area. Will need to watch for dense fog especially close to the water as these high dewpoints will overrun the relatively cold 40-45 degree water. SREF LIFR probabilities close to 100% Thursday night gives confidence of the clouds/fog. Temps Thu Night will struggle to drop out of the mid 50s, while high temperatures on Friday will likely range from the mid 60s to near 70 F. Lows Fri night in the upper 40s NW to the 50s elsewhere. Showers genly ending from SW to NE after midnight. Latest ECMWF is much faster than prev runs though both the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles are slower so did not change the timing of PoPs by much. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Long term period will generally be dominated by NW flow across the region, as broad upper trof persists over the eastern half of the U.S. Starting Saturday, surface low and associated cold front continue moving EWD/NEWD away from the region, with colder air and Canadian high pressure building into the region Saturday night through Monday. Expect a dry period, with temperatures starting above normal Saturday, then normal to below normal Sunday and Monday. High temperatures expected to be in the 50s on Saturday, with max temps likely reached early in the afternoon. Colder saturday night, with low temps in the 20s to around 30 degrees (warmest near the coast). High temps Sunday/Monday mainly in the 30s, except perhaps near 40 far SE on Sunday. Lows Sunday night in the teens N/CNTRL to low 20s SE. Lows Monday night mostly in the low to mid 20s. Models diverge in the Day 6 to 7 period, with GFS more aggressive in bringing next front and unsettled weather to the region, while ECMWF is slower, with region on the warm side of the next trough through Tuesday. Blended guidance takes the middle ground on Day 7, and have utilized that guidance for Tuesday/Tuesday night. This guidance does bring precip into the region Tuesday night, with rain and/or snow possible. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The best potential for IFR/LIFR conditions will be at RIC/SBY/PHF/ORF but has been slow to materialize so far. ECG will have to be monitored closely as well. Conditions improve later this morning with VFR conditions prevailing under passing mid and high clouds and a light onshore wind. Patchy fog/stratus is again possible later tonight into early Thursday morning. A more widespread/extended period of IFR and possibly LIFR conditions with rain/fog/low clouds looks probable from Thursday aftn into Friday as warm and moist air streams into the area ahead of a low pressure system moving out of the southern Plains. Drier but a little breezy by Saturday, as the associated cold front moves offshroe and away from the area. High pressure locates W of the region by Sunday. && .MARINE... Sfc hi pres was located invof NJ attm and will be drifting slowly E and off the New England coast by this eve. Conditions will remain generally calm over the waters through the day as NE winds become E (remaining aob 10 kt). Winds become SE for Thu...increasing a little bit (to 10-15 kt) ahead of the next complex low pressure system. Similar wind direction into Thu night/Fri with the system still west of the local waters...w/ winds/waves/seas all increasing. SCA conditions are likely (at least over the ocean waters) due to seas aoa 5 ft. Fog with low vsbys also expected over the waters Thu night-Fri due to increased moisture over colder waters. Cold front crosses the area by Sat (afternoon) w/ hi pres returning Sun. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Low tide cycles will continue to gradually rise through mid week (as winds turn more onshore). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB LONG TERM...WRS AVIATION...LKB/WRS MARINE...ALB/MAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  FXUS61 KAKQ 102109 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 409 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure slowly slides farther offshore tonight. A complex area of low pressure approaches from the southwest Thursday and pushes across the Mid-Atlantic Thursday night through Friday night, with the upper level trough lingering over the area Saturday. High pressure builds in from the northwest Saturday night with a return to colder temperatures by Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Current wv imagery and model analysis depict a broad upper ridge over the Southeast Conus downstream of a trough over the srn Rockies and another trough over the nrn Rockies. At the surface, high pressure is centered off the New England coast, and extends to the SW over the Piedmont. Visible satellite imagery and surface obs show mid-level cloud cover from the Piedmont to the Ern Shore (associated with mid-level WAA), with sct cirrus across far SE VA and NE NC. Temperatures are mainly in the mid/upper 40s under cloud cover and in the low to mid 50s under a partly to mostly sunny sky. One interesting observation as of 20z was 39F at ORF with a N wind off the cold water of the Bay. The high will gradually slide offshore tonight as the complex trough to the W pushes into the plains states. Cloud cover is expected to scatter this evening, with the potential for stratus developing over the Piedmont late as the low-level flow becomes more southeasterly as the high moves offshore. There remains a potential for patchy fog across the E under less cloud cover. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid/upper 30s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... The low-level flow remains southeasterly during the day Thursday as low-level WAA strengthens with a warm front pushing into the area. Stratus is expected to become more widespread during the day and mixing will be limited with the latest data suggesting temperatures will be slow to rise during the day. Temperatures by midday may only be in the mid 40s NW, to upper 40s/low 50s central, and near 60F SE given clouds and limited mixing. 25-50% (near 60% for s-central VA) PoPs for showers arrive by late aftn as a shortwave trough pivots newd ahead of the broader trough, which pushes toward the mid-Mississippi Valley. Highs Thursday will likely not occur until later aftn and perhaps into the evening. Current forecast highs range from the low 50s NW to the low 60s SE. 10/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC remain in fairly good agreement depicting a wet period from Thursday Night into Friday Night as the strong srn stream system allows for quite strong longitudinal flow to extend from the Gulf of Mexico newd. This will allow deep moisture to stream into the area and overrun northward advancing warm front. As such, will continue with 70-90% PoPs across the entire area Thursday night as the first batch of deep moisture and strong lift passes through the local area. Temperatures and dewpoints are expected to slowly rise overnight into the upper 50s to low 60s resulting in widespread stratus and fog. We will need to watch for dense fog especially close to the water as these high dewpoints will overrun the relatively cold 40-45F degree water. SREF LIFR probabilities close to 100% Thursday night gives confidence of the clouds/fog. There might be some breaks on Friday, but will maintain a high chc to likely PoP, with likely PoPs once again all areas Friday night as the actual sfc low and frontal boundary moves closer to the region. There will be the potential for thunder with the main upper level trough Friday evening based on current guidance, but low-level lapse rates appear to be a limiting factor to convective potential. Not expecting heavy rainfall, but a general 0.5-0.75" of rain across the area is expected. Temperatures Friday will advect into the mid to upper 60s, with some 70F readings possible if there are some breaks of sun. Lows Friday night range from the mid 40s NW to the low 50s SE. The primary upper trough lingers over the region Saturday, with an upper level shortwave trough tracking over the area in SW flow aloft. Meanwhile, the surface cold front pushes through the area with the wind becoming northerly. All this points to a mostly cloudy day with a lingering chc of showers. Highs early in the day range from the upper 40s far NW to the upper 50s SE, with temperatures expected to remain steady or slowly fall through the day. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Extended forecast starting 00z Sun begins with a strong 1040 mb high moving across the midwest with continued NW flow across the mid Atlantic with strong CAA. The high weakens and the center passes across the NE but the result will be a return to cold temperatures Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 30s. Models are in general good agreement maintaining the broad upper trough in the east through midweek supporting persistent cold air from Sunday through Thursday next week. Lows will be generally in the teens to low to mid 20s and highs in the 30s. There will be a series of upper waves move across in the NW flow early next week which could result in periods of mid and high clouds. Model disagree some in regards to deepening of the upper trough 00z Wed through 00z Thu. The ECMWF digs the upper trough and therefore is slower to move the upper system offshore. The ECMWF also suggest more upper forcing available to support a low chance of scattered show showers some time Late Tuesday night into Wed. The CMC even tries to develop a coastal low mid week just off the coast in response to the exiting shortwave. Have a 20 POP for snow in the forecast towards the end of the extended. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure is centered over srn New England this aftn and is ridging to the SW into the VA Piedmont. Bkn-ovc cigs of 5-6kft extend from RIC-SBY with sct cirrus farther SE over PHF/ORF/ECG. The wind is light and mainly from the ENE. Patchy fog/stratus is again possible later tonight into early Thursday morning, but given what happened this morning confidence not high enough to include anything more than high-end IFR to MVFR (2-4sm) vsby in the TAFS by 07/08Z. After 12z, stratus over the Piedmont is expected to nudge ewd potentially affecting RIC/PHF prior to 18z. Becoming overcast over the entire region after 18z with IFR cigs spreading toward the coast, and a chance for rain developing Thursday aftn. A more widespread/extended period of IFR and possibly LIFR conditions with rain/fog/low clouds looks probable from Thursday evening into Friday as warm and moist air streams into the area ahead of a low pressure system moving out of the southern Plains. The latest guidance suggests some moisture could linger into Saturday with a chc of rain continuing. Drier air arrives form the NW Saturday night and Sunday as the associated cold front moves offshore and away from the area. High pressure locates W of the region by Sunday and Monday. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure will continue to drift off the New Jersey coast this evening putting the waters in southeast flow tonight through Thursday. Winds will remain around 5 to 10 knots tonight and increase during the day Thursday to 10 to 15 knots. The next low pressure system approaches the area Thursday night into Friday with increasing winds and seas ahead of the system. Mixing will be limited Thursday night due to cold water, thus have decided to hold off on any Small Craft Advisories for the Bay at this time. SCAs will likely be needed for the coastal waters late Thursday night into Friday for seas at or above 5 feet. Fog with low visibilities is also expected Thursday night into Friday morning due to increased moisture over colder waters. A cold front crosses the waters by Saturday afternoon and high pressure returns Sunday. Elevated seas and gusty winds will likely continue into Sunday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB LONG TERM...JAO AVIATION...AJZ/LKB MARINE...AJB  FXUS61 KAKQ 180800 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 400 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary stalls across northern portions of the forecast area through tonight, bringing periodic showers and thunderstorms, with the likelihood for heavy rainfall. Somewhat drier air arrives during the weekend as the upper level low pressure system weakens. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM EDT Thursday... Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday evening for much of the area... Cuurent analysis indicates upper level low pressure centered across the lower/mid MS Valley and TN Valley with upper ridge well off the SE US coast. This S to SW flow in the mid/upper levels continues to transport highly anomalous moisture over the local area (with a nearly stationary sfc boundary draped across the far nrn tier of the FA). Training storms will persist due to flow at H5 being nearly identical to the low level jet. Best forcing /UVM early this morning is in place over central/southern VA with less focing along the coast of SE VA/NE NC. Cloud tops per latest IR satellite imagery continue to show cooling aloft, maintaining the widespread showers and embedded tstms over the region. See latest FLW/FLS products for current warnings and statements over the area that have been issued recently to account for the heavy rain that has been on the order of 2-4" most areas (locally up to 5-6" since yesterday in a few spots over the northern Neck). The overall pattern does not change much today into this evening, with the upper trough over the Mid- South and a stalled frontal boundary over the northern Mid- Atlantic. Will have Flood Watch continue through midnight Fri night for now...though axis of highest/deepest moist and potential +RA may shift to ESE portions of VA and NE NC later tonight (but these areas have seen only spotty amts thus far). Highs today from the l-m60s on the lower MD ern shore to the 70s elsewhere (around 80 F in NE NC). && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 315 PM EDT Thursday... Most if not all of the FA is expected to get back into the warm sector Sat as axis of deepest moist shifts to the coast/offshore. So...highs Sat will genly be in the u70s-l80s (l-m70s on most of the eastern shore). Some potential for stronger tstms exists by Sat aftn/evening though much uncertainty remains. Storm total QPF through Sat night ranges from 2.00"-2.50" SE to 3.00"-5.00" NW. Due to the convective nature of this event, there will likely be localized areas of higher amounts, but also some areas that receive less. Sun will be warm and moderately humid w/ VRB clouds/partly sunny conditions. Will have PoPs 20-40% (highest over far SE VA- coastal NE NC)...primarily for afternoon/eve SHRAS/tstms. Highs from the u70s-l80s on the ern shore to the m80s inland. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 100 PM EDT Thursday... Unsettled wx expected to continue early in the extended forecast period then a trend toward drying/improving wx now highlighted mid week. A gradual break down of the moist SSW flow expected as westerlies aloft strengthen and finally push a (and more significant) cold front through the region (Wed). Keeping PoPs above climo Sun night through Tue (mainly 30-40%) for SHRAS...mainly diurnally driven tstms. Lowering PoPs to aob 15-30% Wed-Thu. Highs each day mainly in the 80s...w/ lows in the 60s-70F. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Friday... An area of widespread showers with embedded tstms currently affecting much of central and southern VA, bringing heavy downpours with IFR cigs and variable vsbys at KRIC. SE terminals genly have been dry but KPHF has had a few occasional showers from time to time with mainly MVFR conditions (mainly VFR at KORF/KECG). KSBy is firmly entrenched in IFR/LIFR conditions with vsbys of 1-2SM and cigs of 200-400 ft. Expect IFR/LIFR ceilings at SBY through the entire TAF period, at KRIC, mainly IFR conditions through mid morning, with some temporary improvement to MVFR conditions (but still periodic IFR in heavier showers/tstms through the TAF period). Elsewhere, expect MVFR/VFR conditions at KORF/KPHF/KECG as chances for showers/tstms increase by aftn and into tonight. OUTLOOK... The boundary will gradually lift N by Saturday, but shower/tstm chances will continue. Somewhat drier conditions potentially arrive by Sunday. Patchy early morning MVFR/IFR stratus will be possible on both Saturday and Sunday. Rain chances continue through early next week, as mainly afternoon/evening showers/tstms are possible on Monday and Tuesday. && .MARINE... As of 1000 PM EDT Thursday... A frontal boundary will remain stalled across the northern portions of the marine area overnight and even into Friday. This will result in winds remaining E or NE 10-15 kt or less off the MD coast and over the upper Bay. SE winds will persist over the middle to lower Bay and the remainder of the coastal waters through Fri night. Seas generally 2-4 ft; waves 1-2 ft. A brief uptick in wind speeds to around 20 kt is possible north of Chincoteague Friday aftn/eve. Wave guidance is also showing the potential for seas to reach 5 ft out past 10 nm north of Parramore Island Friday night. SCA looks marginal at best so will defer to next shift to assess whether a headline will be needed. The pressure gradient tightens on Sat resulting in an increasing southerly flow to 15 to 20 kt especially over the coastal waters. SCA conditions will be marginal for the Bay Sat/Sat night and an SCA may be needed. Potential exists again for seas to build to 5 ft out around 10-20 nm on the coastal waters. Flow becomes a little more SW Sun as a front drops down across northern VA and stalls. Bermuda high pres well offshore will keep winds SW around 15 kt through Tue with some higher gusts possible. Models suggest an area of low pressure may pass across New England Tue into Wed which could increase winds a little more with SCA possible for a time Tue and Wed. && .HYDROLOGY... Flood warnings have been issued for the James River basin. Recent heavy rain along with the expectation of more heavy rain has resulted in a forecast of minor to moderate flooding. See FLWAKQ for more details. There also is a potential for minor flooding along the Meherrin River at Lawrenceville. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Flood Watch through this evening for MDZ021>025. NC...None. VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069- 075>090-092-509>522. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...LKB MARINE...TMG HYDROLOGY...  FXUS61 KAKQ 181404 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1004 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary stalls across northern portions of the forecast area through tonight, bringing periodic showers and thunderstorms, with the likelihood for heavy rainfall. Somewhat drier air arrives during the weekend as the upper level low pressure system weakens. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 AM EDT Friday... Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday evening for much of the area... Impressive/excessive RA event since Thu afternoon...esp over central/scentral VA as deep layered southerly flow transported anomalous moisture over sfc frontal boundary stalled over the FA. The intensity/coverage of the RA has decreased (though there is a fairly large area of RA still over the lower MD ern shore attm). See latest FLW/FLS products for current warnings and statements over the area that have been issued recently to account for the heavy rain that has been on the order of 2-4" most areas (locally up to 5-8" since yesterday in a few spots). The overall pattern does not change much through (at least) this eve, w/ the upr trough over the Mid-South and a stalled frontal boundary sitting over the local area. Keeping Flood Watch continue through midnight tonight for now (will re-evaluate this afternoon)...though axis of highest/deepest moist and potential +RA may eventually shift to ESE portions of VA and NE NC later tonight (but these areas have seen only spotty excessive amounts thus far). Highs today from the l-m60s on the lower MD ern shore to the 70s elsewhere (around 80 F in NE NC). Keeping PoPs 60-100% over much of the local area w/ exception to CHC PoPs far SE VA-NE NC...w/ additional heavy rain still a concern. The sfc front will begin lifting north as the upper level low begins to weaken/transition into an open wave while pushing NE to the lower OH Valley. The threat for heavy rain will focus more to the along and/or E of I-95 after midnight and into Sat...though the duration attm is not expected to be long enough to warrant a flood Watch across SE VA/NE NC. Warm/humid again tonight with lows mainly 65-70 F (except cooler MD eastern shore). && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 415 AM EDT Friday... As the transition of the upper low continues on Sat, the flow aloft will be stronger from the SW and thus the chance for training storms and widespread flooding will be lower (even though heavy downpours will continue). Most if not all of the FA is expected to get back into the warm sector Sat aftn as axis of deepest moisture shifts to the coast/offshore. So...highs Sat will genly be in the upper 70s to lower 80s (low-mid 70s on most of the eastern shore). With some sunshine possible, there is a bit more potential for stronger tstms by Sat aftn/evening though much uncertainty remains and it would likely be only a marginal risk at best. PoPs will genly be high chance to likely (50-70%). Sun will be warm and moderately humid w/ VRB clouds/partly sunny conditions. Will have PoPs 20-40% (highest over far SE VA- coastal NE NC)...primarily for afternoon/eve SHRAS/tstms. Highs from the u70s-l80s on the ern shore to the mid 80s well inland. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 100 PM EDT Thursday... Unsettled wx expected to continue early in the extended forecast period then a trend toward drying/improving wx now highlighted mid week. A gradual break down of the moist SSW flow expected as westerlies aloft strengthen and finally push a (and more significant) cold front through the region (Wed). Keeping PoPs above climo Sun night through Tue (mainly 30-40%) for SHRAS...mainly diurnally driven tstms. Lowering PoPs to aob 15-30% Wed-Thu. Highs each day mainly in the 80s...w/ lows in the 60s-70F. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 800 AM EDT Friday... An area of widespread showers with embedded tstms is currently impacting the Lower Eastern Shore of Maryland, bringing heavy downpours with IFR visibilities to SBY. Scattered showers are impacting the other terminals with light to moderate rain. Showers will continue to impact the terminals for the bulk of the TAF period, with the heaviest rain at RIC/SBY. IFR/LIFR ceilings at SBY briefly lifted around 11z as the heavier rain moved in, but BKN IFR cigs (~500 ft) have returned and will persist for the bulk of the TAF period. Elsewhere, expect MVFR ceilings for the bulk of the TAF period with a possible return to IFR cigs early Saturday AM. OUTLOOK... Shower/tstm chances continue on Saturday, as the frontal boundary gradually lifts northward. Somewhat drier conditions potentially arrive by Sunday. Patchy early morning MVFR/IFR stratus will be possible on both Saturday and Sunday. Rain chances continue through early next week, as mainly afternoon/evening showers/tstms are possible on Monday and Tuesday. && .MARINE... As of 430 AM EDT Friday... A frontal boundary will remain stalled acrs the northern portions of the marine area into this evening. This will result in winds remaining E 5-15 kt off the MD coast, the nrn portion of the VA ern shore, and over the upper Bay. SE or S winds 5-15 kt will persist over the middle to lower Bay and the remainder of the coastal waters through tonight. E then SE winds, then winds becoming S and increasing to 15-20 kt late tonight into Sat night, will result in seas building to 4-6 ft over the nrn three coastal zns. Thus, have issued a SCA for these zns starting late tonight for 650/652, and starting early Sat aftn for 654. Expect S winds 10-20 kt over the waters fm later Sat aftn into Sat night, then SW 10-15 kt very late Sat night thru Sun. SCA conditions will be marginal for the Bay Sat/Sat night, and have capped speeds at 15 kt for now. Bermuda high pressure well offshore will keep winds SSW 5-15 kt Sun night thru Tue. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 1000 AM EDT Friday... Flood warnings continue for the James River basin. New warnings have been issued for Lawrenceville...Rawlings and Stony Creek on the Meherrin and Nottoway rivers. Recent heavy rain along with the expectation of more heavy rain has resulted in a forecast of minor to moderate flooding. See FLWAKQ or FLSAKQ for more details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Flood Watch through this evening for MDZ021>025. NC...None. VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069- 075>090-092-509>522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 5 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...ERI/LKB MARINE...TMG HYDROLOGY...AKQ  FXUS61 KAKQ 280258 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1058 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary lingers across the Maryland eastern shore into Monday before dissipating. Meanwhile, high pressure remains centered over the western Atlantic for most of this week. The remnant low Alberto is expected to track west of the mountains through mid week. The moisture ahead of this low will result in unsettled conditions over the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 1045 PM EDT Sunday... Cancelled the Flash Flood Watch for Dorchester/Wicomico given the position of the backdoor cold front. The threat is diminishing a bit to the south across Somerset and southern Worcester but still enough potential and an ongoing FLS in effect to keep the watch going there. Otherwise, latest analysis indicating that the backdoor cold front has dropped south into portions of the lower MD eastern shore, with temperatures now into the low-mid 60s from Ocean City to Salisbury. Elsewhere, showers with embedded tstms persist ongoing over portions of central/eastern VA mainly from Cumberland Co ENE through the north side of metro Richmond. Precipitable water values in this region avg 1.90" to 2.00" with training storms due to low MBE values. Lows tonight in the upper 60s/lower 70s except lower 60s MD eastern shore. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 PM EDT Sunday... Given Alberto's remnant low track, models are now showing more of the deeper moisture bands moving north and rotating across the Mid Atlantic region through mid week with the heaviest rainfall across the srn half of the local area. 1.5-2.5 in QPF across srn VA with 2.5-3.5 in across NC. Given this rainfall will be spread out over a few days, will hold off on any flood watch for now but may eventually need one in later shifts given how wet it has been lately. First band progged to rotate north Mon aftn where likely to cat pops will be kept across the south, chc across the north. Clouds and pcpn will keep temps down a bit, with highs upr 70s- lwr 80s. Likely pops cont across the south Mon night with chc pops across the north. Lows in the mid 60s-lwr 70s. Additional moisture bands are progged to move across the region Tue and Wed. Timing will be problematic so will keep chc pops across the north, likely across the south Tue and Tues night closer to the deeper moisture feed with likely pops overs the wrn half of the local area Wed. Although thunder chcs will be there each day, don't expect widespread thunderstorm coverage but kept chc thunder in the grids. Main concern will be locally heavy rainfall. Highs both days 80-85. Lows Tue night upr 60s-lwr 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Sunday... Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue periodically through the day on Thursday. Most models are in agreement that a short break in the activity comes Friday morning, before a cold front approaches and sparks more showers and storms in the afternoon. GFS ensembles and most global guidance suggest a heavier band of precipitation setting up along coastal areas both Friday and Saturday afternoons, but a few more days of model consistency will be needed to iron out those details. Forecast confidence decreases markedly Friday and beyond, with the EURO solution sweeping a cold front through Saturday and the GFS/Canadian solutions stalling out the front over the area. The 12z GFS also notes several upper level disturbances meandering slowly around the mid-Atlantic region, in no hurry to make an exit. Both the GFS/Canadian would suggest continued rain chances through the end of the period, while the EURO would dry things out by Sunday. Depending on which side of the fence you stand on, Sunday into next week could either bring rain or sunshine. The temperature department brings mid 80s for Thursday afternoon. Thursday will run a few degrees lower than Friday, when morning dry time allows for a quicker warm up into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Leaned closer to the EURO on Sunday, cooling down afternoon highs into the lower and middle 80s. These may need to be adjusted upward if Saturday's cold front does not clear the area. Overnight lows will remain steady in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 745 pm EDT Sunday... Mostly VFR conditions across the CWA and terminal regions. However there are scattered thunderstorms across the Piedmont area and extending through Hanover and Caroline counties through the Northern Neck onto the Maryland Eastern Shore. Strong showers and thunderstorms will soon affect SBY as storms move across the Chesapeake Bay. A cold front also lies north of SBY over Delaware and west through Maryland. The front will drop south across the Delmarva through tonight. The front will help to trigger thunderstorms into the late evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible overnight as the front sags to the south and tropical moisture surges north from the Gulf and Atlantic. Outlook... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the next few days with an influx of tropical moisture from the deep south. && .MARINE... As of 350 PM EDT Sunday... No headlines in the short term tonight thru Tue. SSW winds arnd Bermuda high pressure average 15 kt or less thru Mon night with seas mainly 2-3 ft and waves 1-2 ft. Winds become SE or E for Tue night into Wed night with speeds remaining mainly aob 15 kt. Seas 2-4 ft with 1-2 ft waves. Sctd tstms could be accompanied by gusty winds through Thu. && .CLIMATE... As of 345 AM EDT Sunday... * RIC monthly rainfall total through 5/26 is 10.27" which now ranks as the wettest May on record. (breaking the old record of 9.79" in 2016). (Precipitation records date back to 1880). * SBY monthly rainfall total through 5/26 is 8.63" (and this will increase as some additional rain has been recorded today). Through the 26th, this already ranks as 3rd wettest May on record (wettest is 10.38" in 1948). (Precipitation records date back to 1906). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Monday for MDZ023-024. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...BMS AVIATION...MPR/JEF MARINE...TMG CLIMATE...AKQ  FXUS61 KAKQ 160900 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 400 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low pressure system will cross the area today and push off the coast by this evening. High pressure returns Monday through Wednesday, bringing dry conditions to the local area. The next area of low pressure approaches from the southwest Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 345 AM EST Sunday... Latest analysis indicates broad/weak sfc low pressure was centered across northern sections of the CWA, with an occluded boundary extending back to the west toward another weak low over the wrn slopes of the central Appalachians. Aloft, upper level low pressure can be seen spinning across western NC and will drift ENE today. With a Sw low level wind over much of the area now, VSBYS have improved for the most part (though some 1-2 SM VSBYS remain over central and northern zones). Skies are overcast but only spotty light rain is occurring over the N/NW. Temperatures remain fairly warm for Dec, ranging from the mid-upper 40s in the Piedmont to the mid 50s eastern shore. As the upper low moves ENE later today, PoPs will ramp back up to likely for central and nrn zones through midday/early afternoon...then shift off to the NE by later afternoon. Cooler...w/ highs occurring now over much of the area with temps likely falling a few degrees by aftn, in the m-u40s N and W to the m50s far SE. An area of SHRAS may linger across the E and NE (esp on the ern shore) this evening...as low pressure departs the region. Lows in the 30s most areas tonight, but precip will end before any P-type issues arise. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM EST Sunday... Models in good agreement that a welcome dry pattern will prevail both Mon/Tue. Sfc low pressure will be pushing off the New England coast Mon morning with sfc high pressure over the midwest. Cold air advection will be offset by downslope warming so highs will be mild on Mon, ranging from the mid 50s across the north to the lower 60s south under mainly sunny skies. Secondary cold front drops through the region Mon night and may lead to a few clouds across the eastern shore but skies will be mostly clear overall. Turning colder Mon night w/ lows in the u20s- around 30F W to the mid 30s along the coast in SE VA- NE NC. Sfc high settles over the region Tue/Tue night with clear and dry conditions to prevail. Cooler but seasonable Tue with highs mainly from 45-50 F (coolest NE and warmest SW). Clear with lows from the mid 20s to lower 30s Tue night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 PM EST Saturday... High pres shifts offshore by Wed. Dry/seasonable wx is expected. Amplification of trough aloft now appears to be potentially stronger on latest mid range models through the MS/OH/TN Valleys Thu/Thu night then to the E Fri. Lo pres expected to develop over the lower MS Valley Thu...then tracks NE through the ern OH Valley Fri...pushing a cold front to the E coast by late Fri. Deep layered SSW flow results in bringing sharp increase in moisture NE from the SE states beginning Thu afternoon/evening (PoPs to 60-80% here Thu night)...then spreading toward the NE CONUS Fri. Another period of moderate/heavy RA possible...esp Thu night/early Fri...then the trailing upper level trough crossing the region late Fri/Fri night may bring additional SCT pcpn. Lows Tue night in the m-u20s inland to the l30s along the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Highs Wed in the m-u40s N to the l50s S. Lows Wed night in the 30s...except l40s at the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Highs Thu in the l-m50s N to the u50s-around 60F S. Lows Thu night in the l-m40s W to the l50s in NE NC. Highs Fri in the 50s to around 60F. Highs Sat in the u40s-l50s. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 AM EST Sunday... Widespread LIFR/IFR conditions in CIGS persist as of 06z, and will likely continue through 12Z and beyond at KRIC/KSBY, while potentially improving between 10-12Z at KPHF/KORF/KECG. Low pressure across the VA-MD Ern Shore will shift off the MD coast by 12z. Low- level flow has become become SW and VSBYS have improved quite a bit for most of the region but CIGS remain IFR/LIFR. An upper level trough will push across the region Sunday bringing another chc of showers mainly affecting RIC/SBY. The wind will generally become SW this morning, and then NW by mid-late aftn. Drier air with improving conditions arrive tonight into Monday and will then persist through Wednesday. Somewhat breezy W flow during the day Mon with gusts to ~20 kt possible. Low pressure approaches from the SW Thursday and will likely bring another round of flight restrictions beginning later Thursday. && .MARINE... As of 345 AM EST Sunday... Cancelled Marine Dense Fog Advisory for the nrn Chesapeake Bay, Rappahannock River, and nrn ocean zones as VSBYS have improved. Latest sfc analysis shows two low pressure centers: one near the MD/DE border and another over the mountains of WV. Upper level low pressure over east-central TN Sat aftn has moved into wrn NC early this morning. Winds have shifted to SW over the marine areas at 10- 15 knots, but seas remain elevated (6-8 ft north of Parramore Island/4-6 feet south). Winds increase out of the W then NW this evening through tonight as the aforementioned sfc low in WV moves offshore to the NE of the area. Near-term guidance/BUFKIT soundings indicate just enough CAA/925-975 mb winds on the back side of the low to allow for a period of SCA level winds across the bay/ocean. Therefore, went ahead and issued an SCA for all Chesapeake Bay zones from 21z Sun- 09z Mon. Winds turn more westerly and decrease to 10-15 knots during the day on Mon. Winds then turn to the NW and increase to 20 kt over the bay/Currituck Sound, 25 kt over the ocean, and 15-18 kt over the lower rivers. This is due to an upper trough moving from SE Canada to New England, which will allow a shot of colder air to move into the Mid-Atlc from the NW. Model soundings show the potential for gusts to around/just above 30 knots Mon night-Tue, mainly over the nrn ocean zones (along w/ solid SCA conditions over much of the area). Winds finally diminish over the waters Tue aftn-Wed, as an area of high pressure moves into and over the area from the NW. Seas likely remain at least 5 ft through Tue over the nrn ocean zones, but may drop below 5 ft from late tonight-Mon S of Cape Charles. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 345 AM Sunday... In general, additional QPF will be quite low tonight as RA continues to diminish. Snow cover is now gone as well. Runoff now will be the issue into/through early in the upcoming week. Flood warnings were issued earlier today for Palmyra...Bremo Bluff and Lawrenceville, and Richmond-Westham and the Locks have been added this evening. Other sites will continue to be monitored. Please refer to the latest FLW/FLS products for site-specific details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ652-654-656- 658. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ650. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...AJZ/LKB MARINE...ERI/TMG HYDROLOGY...AKQ  FXUS61 KAKQ 161225 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 725 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low pressure system will cross the area today and push off the coast by this evening. High pressure returns Monday through Wednesday, bringing dry conditions to the local area. The next area of low pressure approaches from the southwest Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 700 AM EST Sunday... Latest analysis indicates sfc low pressure now sliding off the MD coast. Aloft, upper level low pressure can be seen spinning from central NC to south central VA and will drift ENE through the aftn. SW low level wind now prevails over the area. Still only some spotty light rain is occurring over the N/NW. Temperatures remain fairly warm for Dec, ranging from the mid 40s in the Piedmont to the lower 50s near the coast. As the upper low moves ENE later today, PoPs will ramp back up to likely for central and nrn zones through midday/early afternoon...then shift off to the NE by later afternoon/early evening. Cooler...w/ highs occurring now over much of the area with temps likely falling a few degrees by aftn, to the mid 40s N to the upper 40s/low 50s south. An area of SHRAS may linger across the E and NE (esp on the ern shore) this evening...as low pressure departs the region. Lows in the 30s most areas tonight, but precip will end before any P-type issues arise. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM EST Sunday... Models in good agreement that a welcome dry pattern will prevail both Mon/Tue. Sfc low pressure will be pushing off the New England coast Mon morning with sfc high pressure over the midwest. Cold air advection will be offset by downslope warming so highs will be mild on Mon, ranging from the mid 50s across the north to the lower 60s south under mainly sunny skies. Secondary cold front drops through the region Mon night and may lead to a few clouds across the eastern shore but skies will be mostly clear overall. Turning colder Mon night w/ lows in the u20s- around 30F W to the mid 30s along the coast in SE VA- NE NC. Sfc high settles over the region Tue/Tue night with clear and dry conditions to prevail. Cooler but seasonable Tue with highs mainly from 45-50 F (coolest NE and warmest SW). Clear with lows from the mid 20s to lower 30s Tue night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 PM EST Saturday... High pres shifts offshore by Wed. Dry/seasonable wx is expected. Amplification of trough aloft now appears to be potentially stronger on latest mid range models through the MS/OH/TN Valleys Thu/Thu night then to the E Fri. Lo pres expected to develop over the lower MS Valley Thu...then tracks NE through the ern OH Valley Fri...pushing a cold front to the E coast by late Fri. Deep layered SSW flow results in bringing sharp increase in moisture NE from the SE states beginning Thu afternoon/evening (PoPs to 60-80% here Thu night)...then spreading toward the NE CONUS Fri. Another period of moderate/heavy RA possible...esp Thu night/early Fri...then the trailing upper level trough crossing the region late Fri/Fri night may bring additional SCT pcpn. Lows Tue night in the m-u20s inland to the l30s along the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Highs Wed in the m-u40s N to the l50s S. Lows Wed night in the 30s...except l40s at the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Highs Thu in the l-m50s N to the u50s-around 60F S. Lows Thu night in the l-m40s W to the l50s in NE NC. Highs Fri in the 50s to around 60F. Highs Sat in the u40s-l50s. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 700 AM EST Sunday... Widespread LIFR/IFR conditions persist as of 12Z over the north with more variable conditions (MVFR to VFR) farther south. These conditions will more or less continue today as sfc low pressure moves off the MD coast. Low- level flow has become become SW and VSBYS are generally improved except across KSBY through ~15Z. An upper level trough will push across the region late this morning and aftn bringing another chc of showers mainly affecting RIC/SBY from 15-21Z. The wind will shift to the WNW later this aftn. Drier air with improving conditions arrive tonight into Monday and will then persist through Wednesday. Somewhat breezy W flow during the day Mon with gusts to ~20 kt possible. Low pressure approaches from the SW Thursday and will likely bring another round of flight restrictions beginning later Thursday. && .MARINE... As of 345 AM EST Sunday... Cancelled Marine Dense Fog Advisory for the nrn Chesapeake Bay, Rappahannock River, and nrn ocean zones as VSBYS have improved. Latest sfc analysis shows two low pressure centers: one near the MD/DE border and another over the mountains of WV. Upper level low pressure over east-central TN Sat aftn has moved into wrn NC early this morning. Winds have shifted to SW over the marine areas at 10- 15 knots, but seas remain elevated (6-8 ft north of Parramore Island/4-6 feet south). Winds increase out of the W then NW this evening through tonight as the aforementioned sfc low in WV moves offshore to the NE of the area. Near-term guidance/BUFKIT soundings indicate just enough CAA/925-975 mb winds on the back side of the low to allow for a period of SCA level winds across the bay/ocean. Therefore, went ahead and issued an SCA for all Chesapeake Bay zones from 18z today-09z Mon. Winds turn more westerly and decrease to 10-15 knots during the day on Mon. Winds then turn to the NW and increase to 20 kt over the bay/Currituck Sound, 25 kt over the ocean, and 15-18 kt over the lower rivers. This is due to an upper trough moving from SE Canada to New England, which will allow a shot of colder air to move into the Mid-Atlc from the NW. Model soundings show the potential for gusts to around/just above 30 knots Mon night-Tue, mainly over the nrn ocean zones (along w/ solid SCA conditions over much of the area). Winds finally diminish over the waters Tue aftn-Wed, as an area of high pressure moves into and over the area from the NW. Seas likely remain at least 5 ft through Tue over the nrn ocean zones, but may drop below 5 ft from late tonight-Mon S of Cape Charles. With new headlines for the bay today/tonight, opted not to extend/issue SCAs for the late Mon/Tue timeframe attm since it is still 36-48 hours out. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 345 AM Sunday... In general, additional QPF will be quite low today. Snow cover is now gone as well. Runoff now will be the issue into/through early in the upcoming week. Flood warnings have been cancelled at Palmyra but remain in effect for Bremo Bluff, Lawrenceville, Richmond- Westham and the Locks, and Farmville. Other sites will continue to be monitored. Please refer to the latest FLW/FLS products for site- specific details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ652-654-656- 658. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ650. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...AJZ/LKB MARINE...ERI/TMG HYDROLOGY...AKQ  FXUS61 KAKQ 162026 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 326 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low pressure system will push off the coast this evening. High pressure returns Monday through Wednesday, bringing dry conditions to the local area. The next area of low pressure approaches from the southwest Thursday and brings another round of rain Thursday afternoon into early Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 300 PM EST Sunday... Vertically stacked/occluded lo pres will slowly reach the coast this evening then move offshore overnight. Two lingering areas of SHRAs attm...one will be moving to the ern shore in the next couple of hours...then the trailing area (over the wrn Piedmont) will be sliding ESE through central VA toward SE VA. QPF will remain spotty and light and clouds will remain widespread. WNW winds will begin to usher in cooler air this evening w/ temperatures falling through the 40s. Beginning to clear out mainly after midnight. Lows mainly in the m-u30s...except around 40F right along the Bay/ocean in ern VA and NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM EST Sunday... Models in good agreement that a welcome dry pattern will prevail both Mon/Tue. Sfc lo pres will be pushing off the New England coast Mon morning with sfc hi pres over the Midwest. CAA will be offset by downsloping (WNW winds gusty at times) so highs will be mild on Mon...ranging from the mid 50s across the N and NW to the l60s SE under a mainly sunny sky. Secondary cold front drops through the region Mon night and may lead to a few clouds...mainly across the ern shore but generally SKC overall. Turning colder Mon night w/ lows in the u20s-around 30F W to the mid 30s right along the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Sfc hi pres settles over the region Tue/Tue night w/ clear and dry conditions prevailing. Cooler but seasonable Tue with highs mainly from 45-50 F (coolest NE and warmest SW). Clear with lows from the m-u20s inland to lower 30s SE VA-NE NC coastal areas Tue night. Hi pres shifts offshore by Wed and dry/seasonable wx will continue. Highs Wed in the u40s N and NW to the l50s S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 PM EST Sunday... Hi pres drifts farther off the coast Wed night while strong amplification of trough aloft begins through the Plains states. That trough will be shifting E through Fri. Lo pres moving through the lower MS Valley Thu...tracks NE through the ern OH Valley Fri...pushing a cold front to the E coast by late Fri. Timing is fairly consistent over the past few runs of the models (maybe a touch faster now). Consensus shows deep layered SSW flow resulting in quick/significant increase in moisture NE from the SE states beginning Thu morning (PoPs to 60-90% here by Thu evening)...then spreading toward the NE CONUS Fri. Another period of moderate/heavy RA possible...esp Thu evening/night...then the trailing upper level trough crosses the region late Fri/Fri night may bring additional SCT pcpn. Drying out and cool for the weekend as the lo pres departs into the far nrn Atlantic. Lows Wed night in the 30s...except l40s at the coast in ern VA- NE NC. Highs Thu in the l-m50s N and W to the l60s in SE VA-NE NC. Mild Thu night w/ lows Thu night in the m-u40s W to the m50s in E and SE. Highs Fri in the u50s to l60s. Lows Fri night from the u30s W to the l40s E. Highs Highs Sat and Sun in the u40s N and W to the m50s SE. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 135 PM EST Sunday... Generally MVFR conditions (CIGS) w/ occasional IFR into tonight as lo pres is slow to track over then E and off the coast. An area of SHRAs will be easing E to the coast through about 00-02Z/17. Winds WSW gusty to 20 kt becoming NW. Drier air with improving conditions arrive overnight into Mon and will then persist through Wed. Somewhat breezy WNW winds during the day Mon with gusts to ~20 kt possible. Lo pres approaches from the SW Thu and will likely bring another round of flight restrictions beginning later Thursday and continuing in Fri. && .MARINE... As of 345 AM EST Sunday... Cancelled Marine Dense Fog Advisory for the nrn Chesapeake Bay, Rappahannock River, and nrn ocean zones as VSBYS have improved. Latest sfc analysis shows two low pressure centers: one near the MD/DE border and another over the mountains of WV. Upper level low pressure over east-central TN Sat aftn has moved into wrn NC early this morning. Winds have shifted to SW over the marine areas at 10- 15 knots, but seas remain elevated (6-8 ft north of Parramore Island/4-6 feet south). Winds increase out of the W then NW this evening through tonight as the aforementioned sfc low in WV moves offshore to the NE of the area. Near-term guidance/BUFKIT soundings indicate just enough CAA/925-975 mb winds on the back side of the low to allow for a period of SCA level winds across the bay/ocean. Therefore, went ahead and issued an SCA for all Chesapeake Bay zones from 18z today-09z Mon. Winds turn more westerly and decrease to 10-15 knots during the day on Mon. Winds then turn to the NW and increase to 20 kt over the bay/Currituck Sound, 25 kt over the ocean, and 15-18 kt over the lower rivers. This is due to an upper trough moving from SE Canada to New England, which will allow a shot of colder air to move into the Mid-Atlc from the NW. Model soundings show the potential for gusts to around/just above 30 knots Mon night-Tue, mainly over the nrn ocean zones (along w/ solid SCA conditions over much of the area). Winds finally diminish over the waters Tue aftn-Wed, as an area of high pressure moves into and over the area from the NW. Seas likely remain at least 5 ft through Tue over the nrn ocean zones, but may drop below 5 ft from late tonight-Mon S of Cape Charles. With new headlines for the bay today/tonight, opted not to extend/issue SCAs for the late Mon/Tue timeframe attm since it is still 36-48 hours out. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 325 PM Sunday... Flood warning has been cancelled at Farmville while remaining in effect for Bremo Bluff, Lawrenceville, Richmond-Westham and the Locks. Other sites will continue to be monitored. Please refer to the latest FLS product for site-specific details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634- 650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...ALB/LKB MARINE...ERI/TMG HYDROLOGY...AKQ  FXUS61 KAKQ 170844 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 344 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the midwest will build east towards the local area today, and will settle over the region tonight through Wednesday. The next area of low pressure approaches from the southwest Thursday and brings another round of rain Thursday afternoon into early Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM EST Monday... Latest analysis indicates strong sfc low pressure off the New England coast with sfc high pressure over the Plains states. While the deep moisture from yesterday's system has moved out of the local area, light winds and a saturated ground under skies that cleared last evening has allowed for the development and expansion of stratus and patchy dense fog from the Piedmont east into central VA. Seeing temp/dew pt spreads of 2-3 F for the most part so this does not appear to be widespread dense fog worthy of a Dense Fog Advisory, but will be issuing another SPS to make mention of this through early this morning (with some of this being patchy freezing fog as well). Temperatures early this morning mainly range from 30-35 F along and west of the I95 corridor to the upper 30s to lower- mid 40s near the coast where skies are still mostly cloudy w/ lingering stratocumulus. Temps will likely fall off another few degrees through 7 am. Otherwise, later this morning (12-15Z) as upper level shortwave that is currently over the OH Valley drops SE and passe through the CWA, we should see a rapid scouring out of this low level moisture and skies becoming mainly sunny. With decent mixing, CAA will be offset by downsloping (WNW winds gusty at times) so highs will be mild, ranging from the mid to upper 50s across the N and NW to the lower 60s SE under a mainly sunny sky. Secondary cold front drops through the region tonight and may lead to a few clouds...mainly across the ern shore but generally SKC overall. Turning colder late tonight w/ lows in the u20s- around 30F W to the mid-upper 30s right along the coast in SE VA- NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EST Monday... Sfc high pres settles over the region Tue/Tue night w/ clear and dry conditions prevailing. Cooler but seasonable Tue with highs mainly from 45-50 F (coolest NE and warmest SW). Clear with lows from the m-u20s inland to upper 20s/lower 30s SE VA- NE NC coastal areas Tue night. High pres shifts offshore by Wed and dry/seasonable wx will continue. Highs Wed in the u40s N and NW to the lower 50s south. Some increase in clouds possible late in the day. High pressure drifts farther off the coast Wed night while strong amplification of trough aloft begins through the Plains states. Expect temperatures to drop off rapidly Wed evening into the upper 30s to lower 40s, then become steady overnight as clouds increase and thicken. Still appears mainly dry until daybreak Thu (~20% PoP possible NE NC well after midnight). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 PM EST Sunday... The trough will be shifting E through Fri. Lo pres moving through the lower MS Valley Thu...tracks NE through the ern OH Valley Fri...pushing a cold front to the E coast by late Fri. Timing is fairly consistent over the past few runs of the models (maybe a touch faster now). Consensus shows deep layered SSW flow resulting in quick/significant increase in moisture NE from the SE states beginning Thu morning (PoPs to 60-90% here by Thu evening)...then spreading toward the NE CONUS Fri. Another period of moderate/heavy RA possible...esp Thu evening/night...then the trailing upper level trough crosses the region late Fri/Fri night may bring additional SCT pcpn. Drying out and cool for the weekend as the lo pres departs into the far nrn Atlantic. Highs Thu in the l-m50s N and W to the l60s in SE VA-NE NC. Mild Thu night w/ lows Thu night in the upper 40s W to the m 50s in E and SE. Highs Fri in the u50s to mid 60s (possibly even warmer if rain diminishes in coverage). Lows Fri night from the u30s W to the l40s E. Highs Highs Sat and Sun in the u40s N and W to the m50s SE. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 100 AM EST Monday... Skies slowly clearing out over the region, though some lingering BKN/OVC stratocu closer to the coast with MVFR CIGS (~1500 ft) at KSBY through about 09Z and VFR CIGS (~3500 ft) at KORF/KPHF/KECG. Also noting an area of low stratus and fog west of TAF sites in the Piedmont that could try to advect east and affect KRIC between 09-12Z. Otherwise, drier air and increased mixing after sunrise should scour out any lingering low level moisture between 12-15Z. Sunny or becoming sunny today with a W wind increasing to 10-15kt in the aftn and occasionally gusting to ~20kt in the aftn. High pressure prevails Tuesday and Wednesday. Low pressure approaches from the SW Thursday and will likely bring another round of flight restrictions beginning later Thursday and continuing into Friday. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EST Monday... && .HYDROLOGY... As of 330 AM EST Monday... Flood warnings continue for Bremo Bluff, Lawrenceville, Richmond-Westham and the Locks. Other sites will continue to be monitored. Please refer to the latest FLS product for site- specific details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ635-636. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634- 650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ633-638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...AJZ/LKB MARINE...ERI/TMG HYDROLOGY...AKQ  FXUS61 KAKQ 171729 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1229 PM EST Mon Dec 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the midwest will build east towards the local area this afternoon and will settle over the region tonight through Wednesday. The next area of low pressure approaches from the southwest Thursday and brings another round of rain Thursday afternoon into early Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1000 AM EST Monday... FG from earlier this morning has dissipated...w/ patchy clouds lingering E and N. Drying WNW flow taking over leading to a rather mild but breezy at times rest of the day across the FA. A weakening S/W aloft and approaching sfc cold front will bring continued patchy clouds...esp N and NE. CAA will be offset by downsloping (WNW winds gusty to 20-25 mph). Highs ranging from the mm-u50s across the N and NW to the l60s SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1000 AM EST Monday... Secondary cold front drops through the region this evening and may lead to a few clouds (and a short period of gusty NW winds...esp toward the coast)...otherwise generally SKC overall. Turning colder late tonight w/ lows in the u20s-around 30F W to the m-u30s right along the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Sfc high pres settles over the region Tue/Tue night w/ clear and dry conditions prevailing. Cooler but seasonable Tue with highs mainly from 45-50 F (coolest NE and warmest SW). Clear with lows from the m-u20s inland to upper 20s/lower 30s SE VA- NE NC coastal areas Tue night. High pres shifts offshore by Wed and dry/seasonable wx will continue. Highs Wed in the u40s N and NW to the lower 50s south. Some increase in clouds possible late in the day. High pressure drifts farther off the coast Wed night while strong amplification of trough aloft begins through the Plains states. Expect temperatures to drop off rapidly Wed evening into the upper 30s to lower 40s, then become steady overnight as clouds increase and thicken. Still appears mainly dry until daybreak Thu (~20% PoP possible NE NC well after midnight). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 PM EST Sunday... The trough will be shifting E through Fri. Lo pres moving through the lower MS Valley Thu...tracks NE through the ern OH Valley Fri...pushing a cold front to the E coast by late Fri. Timing is fairly consistent over the past few runs of the models (maybe a touch faster now). Consensus shows deep layered SSW flow resulting in quick/significant increase in moisture NE from the SE states beginning Thu morning (PoPs to 60-90% here by Thu evening)...then spreading toward the NE CONUS Fri. Another period of moderate/heavy RA possible...esp Thu evening/night...then the trailing upper level trough crosses the region late Fri/Fri night may bring additional SCT pcpn. Drying out and cool for the weekend as the lo pres departs into the far nrn Atlantic. Highs Thu in the l-m50s N and W to the l60s in SE VA-NE NC. Mild Thu night w/ lows Thu night in the upper 40s W to the m 50s in E and SE. Highs Fri in the u50s to mid 60s (possibly even warmer if rain diminishes in coverage). Lows Fri night from the u30s W to the l40s E. Highs Highs Sat and Sun in the u40s N and W to the m50s SE. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1225 PM EST Monday... VFR conditions expected through the 18Z TAF forecast period. BKN mid-high level clouds will accompany a secondary cold front by late this afternoon/evening...esp at RIC-SBY. W winds gusty to about 20 kt at times until about 22Z/17...then NNW gusty to 20-25 kt overnight into Tue. Hi pres prevails Tue and Wed. Lo pres approaches from the SW Thu and will likely bring another round of flight restrictions beginning later Thu and continuing into Fri. && .MARINE... As of 345 AM EST Monday... Latest sfc analysis shows ~998 mb low pressure centered just SE of Nantucket Island. WNW winds have decreased to 10-15 kt over much of the bay, with 15-20 kt winds over the ocean. Waves were 1-2 ft and seas were 4-5 ft over ocean zones S of Parramore Island. However, Buoy 44009 was still reporting 7.5 ft seas as of 3 AM. Winds briefly turn more to the west and remain in the 10-15 kt range during the day today before turning back to the NW and increasing to 20-25 kt (sustained) over the bay/ocean from late this evening through Tue AM. This happens as a surge of CAA arrives from the NW, due to an upper trough moving from SE Canada to New England. The CAA tonight-Tue AM will be stronger than the CAA observed this past aftn/evening. Therefore, even with water temperatures in the mid-upper 40s, expect efficient boundary layer mixing during from tonight-Tue AM. Near-term guidance/model soundings still indicate the potential for gusts to around or just above 30 kt Mon night into Tue morning over the nrn ocean zones. In addition, will likely see a few gusts to ~30 kt at elevated sites over the Chesapeake Bay/srn ocean zones. Went ahead and issued SCAs from 00z-15z Tue for the Rappahannock/York/Lower James Rivers in addition to the Currituck Sound, due to 15-20 kt NW winds with gusts to 25 kt (highest in Lower James/Currituck Sound). Seas will remain in the 4-6 ft range (highest 20 NM offshore) through Tue AM for the most part. Winds finally diminish over the waters Tue aftn/night, as an area of high pressure moves into and over the area fm the WNW. Currently have SCAs expiring for the rivers/sound from 12-15z Tue before expiring for the bay/ocean from 18-21z Tue. Quiet marine conditions expected through early Thu AM before another area of low pressure approaches the region late Thu-Fri. This will likely bring another round of SCA conditions to the region. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 1225 PM EST Monday... Flood warnings continue for Bremo Bluff, Richmond-Westham and the Locks. Other sites will continue to be monitored. Please refer to the latest FLS product for site- specific details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ635-636. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634- 650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ633-638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...AJZ/LKB MARINE...ERI/TMG HYDROLOGY...AKQ  FXUS61 KAKQ 180753 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 253 AM EST Tue Dec 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will settle over the region tonight through Wednesday. The next area of low pressure approaches from the southwest Thursday and brings another round of rain Thursday afternoon into early Friday. The low moves into New England by Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 250 AM EST Tuesday... Latest weather analysis reveals sfc low pressure sliding ne across Atlantic Canada early this morning. The associated sfc cold front extends S-SW offshore and to the south of the local area. to the west, 1026+mb SFC high pressure centered over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley continues to push east...and will settle over the region today and tonight. Cooler but seasonable temps today with highs mainly from 45-50 F (coolest NE and warmest SW), under a mainly sunny sky. Some sct-bkn clouds tonight as a dampening upper shortwave currently over the ArkLaTex region slides across the area tonight. Lows from the m-u20s inland to u20s- around 30F SE VA- NE NC coastal areas Tue night. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 AM EST Tuesday... High pres shifts offshore tomorrow, w/ dry/seasonable conditions to continue. Highs Wed in the u40s-around 50F N and NW to the l50s S. Some increase in clouds possible late in the day into Wednesday night. High pres drifts farther off the coast Wed night while strong amplification of trough aloft begins over the central and southern Plains. With clear sky to start, expect temperatures to drop off rapidly Wed evening into the m-u30s to l40s...then become steady overnight as clouds increase and thicken/lower. Models in reasonably good agreement at this stage for Thu/Thu night system. Still appears mainly dry until daybreak for much of the area on Thu, though did increase to chc pop over the SE into Thu morning) with upglide/overrunning rain showers looking to begin quickly Thu morning across the SE coastal plain. Strong forcing /deep-layered SSW flow to allow rain chances to ramp up quickly from se to nw Thu morning, with categorical to likely rain chances for Thu afternoon and night. Highs Thu in the 40s inland NW to the l60s SE. Still some time for modeled QPF numbers to jostle around a little bit, but the Prob Matched Mean values lined up well with WPC QPF, which ranges from 1-2" across the area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 145 PM EST Monday... The highly amplified trough aloft exits the MS Valley Thu evening...shifting E through Fri. Lo pres invof mid south thu evening tracks NE through the ern OH Valley Fri...pushing a cold front to the E coast by late Fri. Timing remains fairly consistent over the past few runs of the models. Consensus shows a significant push of deep layered moisture NE through the FA Thu night into early Fri which then spreads toward the NE CONUS during Fri. Another period of moderate/heavy RA possible...then the trailing upper level trough crosses the region late Fri into early Sat may bring additional SCT pcpn. Drying out and cool for the weekend as the lo pres departs into the far nrn Atlantic. A cold front in zonal flow aloft arrives by late Mon. Mild Thu night w/ lows Thu night in the m-u40s NW to the l-m50s in E and SE. Highs Fri in the l-m60s (possibly even warmer if RA diminishes in coverage). Lows Fri night in the l-m40. Highs Highs Sat 50-55F. Lows Sat night in the l-m30s W to the u30s- around 40F at the coast. Highs Sun in the u40s N to the m50s S. Highs Mon in the u40s N to the l50s S. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1255 AM EST Tuesday... VFR conditions across area terminals will persist through the 06z TAF period and beyond into midweek. Sfc winds have veered around to the NNW behind a cold frontal passage, winds will gust briefly this morning, especially at SBY and ORF but will diminish through the day Tuesday. Clear skies and high pressure remain in control through the period. Outlook: High pres prevails Tue night and Wed. Surface low pres approaches from the SW Thu and will likely bring another round of diminishing ceilings and eventually some flight restrictions (CIGs and VSBY) in increasing rain chances beginning later Thu and continuing into Fri. VFR conditions then quickly return for next weekend. && .MARINE... As of 1000 PM EST Monday... Latest this aftn, a trough of low pressure was dropping thru SE Canada and srn New England. While, a dry cold front was dropping thru extrm nrn VA, MD and DE. Winds were W 5-15 kt over most of the waters with some gusts to near 20 kt. Waves were 1-2 ft and seas were 3-5 ft. That dry cold front will sink acrs the area this evening/tonight with winds becoming NW and increasing to 15-25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt over the waters this evening thru Tue morning. So, have maintained SCA's for all the waters and have added the upper James River (637) into Tue morning. Seas will remain in the 4-6 ft range (highest 20 NM offshore) thru Tue morning for the most part. Winds finally diminish over the waters Tue aftn/night, as an area of high pressure moves into and over the area fm the WNW. Currently have SCAs expiring for the rivers/sound from 12-15z Tue, before expiring for the bay/ocean from 18-21z Tue. Quiet marine conditions expected thru early Thu morning, before another area of low pressure approaches the region late Thu into Fri morning. This will likely bring another round of SCA conditions to the region. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 255 AM EST Tuesday... Flood warnings continue for Bremo Bluff, Richmond-Westham and the Locks. Other sites will continue to be monitored. Please refer to the latest FLS product for site-specific details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ633- 638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ656- 658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...MAM MARINE...ERI/TMG HYDROLOGY...  FXUS61 KAKQ 220823 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 323 AM EST Sat Dec 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front pushes offshore early this morning. High pressure builds across the region today into Sunday morning. A weak area of low pressure passes through the region Sunday night, with high pressure returning Monday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 320 AM EST Saturday... Sfc low pressure resides over southern Quebec early this morning with a cold front extending south into the local area. The front and associated shower activity will push offshore before daybreak, then dry NW flow will return for the remainder of today. Morning clouds will break for sunshine by this afternoon. Highs today 50-55F but with a chilly breeze. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 320 AM EST Saturday... High pressure traverses the local area tonight into Sunday morning before pushing offshore late Sunday. Clear and colder tonight. Lows in the 30s. Mostly sunny to start Sunday, then increasing clouds from west to east in the aftn ahead of the next system approaching from the WSW. Highs Sunday in the upr 40s to mid 50s. Models showing better agreement that a quick moving shortwave trough crosses the local area Sunday night. As such, have added slight chc PoPs across the Piedmont after 21z Sunday, with 15-25% Pops south and 30-40% PoPs along/north of I-64 between 00-06z Monday. Pcpn ends across the lower MD Eastern Shore by daybreak Monday. Lows Sunday night in the 30s to near 40. Mostly sunny and seasonable Monday with high pressure returning. Highs mid 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM EST Friday... Long range global models agree that high pressure will be in control of the local weather to start the extended forecast. Zonal flow aloft will allow a minor shortwave trough to clip our northern zones late Tuesday and early Wednesday. Not expecting more than an increase in clouds with this feature and have left the forecast dry for Christmas. The upper level height field begins to amplify on Wednesday as surface low pressure strengthens across the central part of the country. Timing differences begin to become evident by late Wednesday with the GFS strengthening the system and moving it northeastward while the ECMWF is a bit slower. Strong surface high pressure (1035+mb) will slide into the northeastern CONUS ahead of this feature and provide a favorable setup for cold air damming across the Piedmont as high pressure ridges down the spine of the Appalachians. Models show differing timing regarding precip arrival across the Mid Atlantic so will go with a blend of the GFS and Euro and show slowly increasing PoPs from west-to-east late Thursday into Friday morning. Daytime high temperatures through the extended will generally be in the upper 40s and low 50s while lows will range from the upper 20s into the 30s. A slow warming trend is expected through the extended period as southerly flow ahead of the central CONUS system gets underway later in the week. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 320 AM EST Saturday... Generally improving conditions with clouds scattering out from 09-12Z and W winds diminishing to 10-15 kt on avg. VFR/mostly sunny with a breezy WNW wind developing today (gusts to 20-25kt from 15-21Z). Outlook: High pressure and dry conditions prevail Sat night/Sun. A low pressure system passes over the local area late Sun into early Mon with winds turning back to the SSW, an increase in clouds, and scattered showers Sun night. Otherwise, dry with fairly benign conditions Mon-Wed. && .MARINE... As of 135 AM EST Saturday... A cold front will be crossing the waters (early) this morning w/ WSW winds 10-20 kt becoming NW 15-25 kt...maybe a few gusts to 30 kt as CAA begins. Upper level trough to swing across the region then offshore this afternoon. SCA conditions will remains until late afternoon/early evening then winds subside and waves/seas lower (blo SCA criteria) - lastly on the nrn ocean waters. Hi pres builds into the region tonight then quickly gives way Sun as a second cold approaches from the W (by late in the day). That second cold front crosses the waters Sun night resulting in a modest bump in the winds to 10 to 15 kt from the SW which become NW post-frontal Monday morning. Hi pres then returns to the local area on Christmas Eve before slowly sliding off the coast on Christmas day with a slight increase in the winds from the W-SW. But overall conditions should remain well below SCA levels into mid week. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 320 AM EST Saturday... Flood warnings continue for most points on the James River. All other basins will remain below minor flooding thresholds. See latest FLS products for site-specific details. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 135 AM EST Saturday... Coastal flood advisories remain in place this current tide cycle for the areas along the bay on the lower MD ern shore. Tides running about 1.5 ft above normal w/ minor flooding expected. High surf advisory will be cancelled for the Maryland beaches and Accomack, VA will be cancelled shortly. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>633. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ656- 658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...RHR AVIATION...JDM MARINE...ALB HYDROLOGY...AKQ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ  FXUS61 KAKQ 221718 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1218 PM EST Sat Dec 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds across the region today into Sunday morning. A weak area of low pressure passes through the region Sunday night, with high pressure returning Monday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1000 AM EST Saturday... Latest MSAS has the cold front offshore with a lingering trof east of the mts. SCT-BKN AC deck assctd with this feature continues to track across ern half of the fa. Thus, only minor changes made to grids as the rest of the day should be pt to mslty sunny and breezy. West winds avgg 15-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph at times. Highs in the low-mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 320 AM EST Saturday... High pressure traverses the local area tonight into Sunday morning before pushing offshore late Sunday. Clear and colder tonight. Lows in the 30s. Mostly sunny to start Sunday, then increasing clouds from west to east in the aftn ahead of the next system approaching from the WSW. Highs Sunday in the upr 40s to mid 50s. Models showing better agreement that a quick moving shortwave trough crosses the local area Sunday night. As such, have added slight chc PoPs across the Piedmont after 21z Sunday, with 15-25% Pops south and 30-40% PoPs along/north of I-64 between 00-06z Monday. Pcpn ends across the lower MD Eastern Shore by daybreak Monday. Lows Sunday night in the 30s to near 40. Mostly sunny and seasonable Monday with high pressure returning. Highs mid 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM EST Friday... Long range global models agree that high pressure will be in control of the local weather to start the extended forecast. Zonal flow aloft will allow a minor shortwave trough to clip our northern zones late Tuesday and early Wednesday. Not expecting more than an increase in clouds with this feature and have left the forecast dry for Christmas. The upper level height field begins to amplify on Wednesday as surface low pressure strengthens across the central part of the country. Timing differences begin to become evident by late Wednesday with the GFS strengthening the system and moving it northeastward while the ECMWF is a bit slower. Strong surface high pressure (1035+mb) will slide into the northeastern CONUS ahead of this feature and provide a favorable setup for cold air damming across the Piedmont as high pressure ridges down the spine of the Appalachians. Models show differing timing regarding precip arrival across the Mid Atlantic so will go with a blend of the GFS and Euro and show slowly increasing PoPs from west-to-east late Thursday into Friday morning. Daytime high temperatures through the extended will generally be in the upper 40s and low 50s while lows will range from the upper 20s into the 30s. A slow warming trend is expected through the extended period as southerly flow ahead of the central CONUS system gets underway later in the week. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1215 PM EST Saturday... VFR conditions continue through the forecast period as high pressure builds across the sern states. Gusty west winds 15-25 KTS through 00Z. Outlook: Low pressure passes over the local area Sun night into early Mon with winds turning back to the SSW, an increase in clouds, and scattered showers Sun night. Otherwise, dry with benign conditions Mon-Wed. && .MARINE... As of 135 AM EST Saturday... A cold front will be crossing the waters (early) this morning w/ WSW winds 10-20 kt becoming NW 15-25 kt...maybe a few gusts to 30 kt as CAA begins. Upper level trough to swing across the region then offshore this afternoon. SCA conditions will remains until late afternoon/early evening then winds subside and waves/seas lower (blo SCA criteria) - lastly on the nrn ocean waters. Hi pres builds into the region tonight then quickly gives way Sun as a second cold approaches from the W (by late in the day). That second cold front crosses the waters Sun night resulting in a modest bump in the winds to 10 to 15 kt from the SW which become NW post-frontal Monday morning. Hi pres then returns to the local area on Christmas Eve before slowly sliding off the coast on Christmas day with a slight increase in the winds from the W-SW. But overall conditions should remain well below SCA levels into mid week. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 1200 PM EST Saturday... Cancelled the warning at Cartersville as it crested just below flood stage early this morning. Watching Westham gage as it may pop up above the 15 ft moderate stage over the next 24 hrs. Bremo and the RIC City locks have been extended into Mon. All other basins will remain below minor flooding thresholds. See latest FLS for details. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 135 AM EST Saturday... Coastal flood advisories remain in place this current tide cycle for the areas along the bay on the lower MD ern shore. Tides running about 1.5 ft above normal w/ minor flooding expected. High surf advisory will be cancelled for the Maryland beaches and Accomack, VA will be cancelled shortly. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>633. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ656- 658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM/MPR SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...RHR AVIATION...MPR MARINE...ALB HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  FXUS61 KAKQ 221902 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 202 PM EST Sat Dec 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds across the southeastern states through Sunday. A weak area of low pressure passes across the region Sunday night. High pressure returns Monday through Wednesday. A complex area of low pressure tracks across the region late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 200 PM EST Saturday... Mstly clr as high pressure builds into the sern states. Winds diminish this evening and decouple across the Piedmont after midnite. Lows in the upr 20s-mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 PM EST Saturday... Sfc high slides off the sern coast Sun. Mstly sunny to start with incrg clouds in the aftrn ahead of the next systm apprchg from the west. Just enough moisture noted for a light shwr across the wrn most zones late. Highs upr 40s-mid 50s. Quick moving s/w trough crosses the area Sun night. Still some model differences wrt avbl moisture but will keep low chc PoPs across the fa during the evening with little in the way of QPF. A few hundredths at best. Moisture lingers across the lwr Md ern shore for a few hrs after midnight with thermal profiles showing the lwr levels staying warm enuf for just rain shwrs. Otw, decreasing clouds after midnite. Lows low-mid 30s north to lwr 40s sern coastal areas. High pressure returns for the holiday period with seasonable temps. Expect pt to mstly sunny skies both days with mstly clr skies at night. Highs Mon mid 40s north to lwr 50s south. Lows Mon nite upr 20s-mid 30s. Highs Tues in the mid-upr 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM EST Saturday... Dry as high pressure overhead Tues night and Wed slides off the New England coast Wed nite. Lows Tue nite upr 20s-mid 30s. Highs Wed upr 40s-lwr 50s. Lows Wed nite in the 30s to near 40 se. Next powerhouse low across the central CONUS mid week is progged to eject ne across the Gt Lakes region Fri then across nrn New England Sat. Warmer air surges north ahead of this system late Thurs thru Fri as the high retreats farther off the coast. Ample moisture accompanies a southern stream s/w that tracks across the region Thurs nite / Fri. Thus, the potential exists for yet anthr wet system late in the week. Will have chc rain Thurs eve ramping up to likely PoPs after midnight, with likely PoPs continuing Fri. GFS and ECMWF now end the rain north to south Fri night, pushing it into the Carolinas by 12Z Sat. Highs Thu upr 40s-upr 50s. Lows Thu nite in the 40s to near 50 se. Highs Fri upr 50s-upr 60s. Lows Fri night mid 40s-mid 50s. Still mild Sat behind the system as the CAA to the north remains nw of the mts thru the day. Highs mid 50s-lwr 60s. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1215 PM EST Saturday... VFR conditions continue through the forecast period as high pressure builds across the sern states. Gusty west winds 15-25 KTS through 00Z. Outlook: Low pressure passes over the local area Sun night into early Mon with winds turning back to the SSW, an increase in clouds, and scattered showers Sun night. Otherwise, dry with benign conditions Mon-Wed. && .MARINE... As of 135 AM EST Saturday... A cold front will be crossing the waters (early) this morning w/ WSW winds 10-20 kt becoming NW 15-25 kt...maybe a few gusts to 30 kt as CAA begins. Upper level trough to swing across the region then offshore this afternoon. SCA conditions will remains until late afternoon/early evening then winds subside and waves/seas lower (blo SCA criteria) - lastly on the nrn ocean waters. Hi pres builds into the region tonight then quickly gives way Sun as a second cold approaches from the W (by late in the day). That second cold front crosses the waters Sun night resulting in a modest bump in the winds to 10 to 15 kt from the SW which become NW post-frontal Monday morning. Hi pres then returns to the local area on Christmas Eve before slowly sliding off the coast on Christmas day with a slight increase in the winds from the W-SW. But overall conditions should remain well below SCA levels into mid week. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 200 PM EST Saturday... Issued another flood warning for the Westham gage on the James as it is now expected to crest at moderate flooding levels tonight. Flood warnings remain in effect for the Ric City locks / Bremo Bluff. All other basins will remain below minor flooding thresholds. See latest FLW / FLS for details. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 135 AM EST Saturday... Coastal flood advisories remain in place this current tide cycle for the areas along the bay on the lower MD ern shore. Tides running about 1.5 ft above normal w/ minor flooding expected. High surf advisory will be cancelled for the Maryland beaches and Accomack, VA will be cancelled shortly. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>633-635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ656- 658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...MPR MARINE...ALB HYDROLOGY...MPR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ  FXUS61 KAKQ 231518 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1018 AM EST Sun Dec 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure traverses the mid Atlantic region today. A weak area of low pressure passes across the region tonight. High pressure returns Monday through Wednesday. A complex area of low pressure tracks across the region late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1015 AM EST Sunday... High pressure remains overhead attm with hardly a cloud in the sky. Models a bit slower to increase the clouds and moisture ahead of the s/w apprchg from the sw. Thus, adjusted cloud coverage down a bit thru the early afternoon hrs and dropped pcpn from the wrn most zones thru 00Z. Highs from the upr 40s Eastern Shore to the mid 50s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM EST Sunday... Quick moving s/w trough crosses the area tonight. Still some model differences with respect to available moisture but will keep slight chc to chc PoPs (highest N of I-64) across the FA during the evening with little in the way of QPF (a few hundredths at best). Moisture lingers across the lower MD Eastern Shore for a few hours after midnight with thermal profiles showing the lower levels staying warm enough for just rain showers. Otherwise, decreasing clouds after midnight. Lows from the low-mid 30s north/NW to lower 40s sern coastal areas. High pressure returns for the holiday period with near seasonable temps. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies both days with mstly clear skies at night. Highs Mon from the mid 40s north to the lower 50s SE. Lows Mon night from the mid-upr 20s to lower 30s. Highs Tues in the mid-upr 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM EST Saturday... Dry as high pressure overhead Tues night and Wed slides off the New England coast Wed night. Lows Tue night upr 20s-mid 30s. Highs Wed upr 40s-lwr 50s. Lows Wed night in the 30s to near 40 se. Next powerhouse low across the central CONUS mid week is progged to eject ne across the Gt Lakes region Fri then across nrn New England Sat. Warmer air surges north ahead of this system late Thurs thru Fri as the high retreats farther off the coast. Ample moisture accompanies a southern stream s/w that tracks across the region Thurs night / Fri. Thus, the potential exists for yet another wet system late in the week. Will have chc rain Thurs eve ramping up to likely PoPs after midnight, with likely PoPs continuing Fri. GFS and ECMWF now end the rain north to south Fri night, pushing it into the Carolinas by 12Z Sat. Highs Thu upr 40s-upr 50s. Lows Thu night in the 40s to near 50 se. Highs Fri upr 50s-upr 60s. Lows Fri night mid 40s-mid 50s. Still mild Sat behind the system as the CAA to the north remains nw of the mts thru the day. Highs mid 50s-lwr 60s. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 630 AM EST Sunday... Sfc high pressure slides off the coast today, as low pressure approaches from the SW late. The low crosses the area this evening into early Monday morning with brief MVFR conditions possible at KRIC and KSBY with BKN/OVC CIGS around 2500-3000 ft. Wdly sct showers will be possible from 00z-06z Mon. Winds will remain light through the 12z TAF period. Outlook: Dry with VFR conditions Mon-Wed. The next round of pcpn looks to arrive late Thursday or Friday. && .MARINE... As of 130 AM EST Sunday... Hi pres extends from the coastal SE states N to near the local waters attm and remains near the region through this morning then shifts offshore into this evening. A cold front approaches from the W this evening...then crosses the waters tonight resulting in an uptick in winds...esp over the coastal waters...but conditions are expected to remain sub-SCA. A period of surge in speeds w/ winds becoming NW late tonight/Mon morning (though remaining blo SCA) before hi pres arrives for Mon night. Sub-SCA conditions are expected Tue into Wed as hi pres remains in control over the waters. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 1015 AM EST Sunday... Flood warnings remain in effect for Ric-Westham, RIC City locks and Bremo Bluff on the James. See latest FLS for details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM/MPR SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...JDM MARINE...ALB HYDROLOGY...MPR  FXUS61 KAKQ 231719 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1219 PM EST Sun Dec 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure moves across the region tonight. High pressure returns Monday through Wednesday night. A complex area of low pressure tracks across the region late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1015 AM EST Sunday... High pressure remains overhead attm with hardly a cloud in the sky. Models a bit slower to increase the clouds and moisture ahead of the s/w apprchg from the sw. Thus, adjusted cloud coverage down a bit thru the early afternoon hrs and dropped pcpn from the wrn most zones thru 00Z. Highs from the upr 40s Eastern Shore to the mid 50s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM EST Sunday... Quick moving s/w trough crosses the area tonight. Still some model differences with respect to available moisture but will keep slight chc to chc PoPs (highest N of I-64) across the FA during the evening with little in the way of QPF (a few hundredths at best). Moisture lingers across the lower MD Eastern Shore for a few hours after midnight with thermal profiles showing the lower levels staying warm enough for just rain showers. Otherwise, decreasing clouds after midnight. Lows from the low-mid 30s north/NW to lower 40s sern coastal areas. High pressure returns for the holiday period with near seasonable temps. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies both days with mstly clear skies at night. Highs Mon from the mid 40s north to the lower 50s SE. Lows Mon night from the mid-upr 20s to lower 30s. Highs Tues in the mid-upr 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM EST Saturday... Dry as high pressure overhead Tues night and Wed slides off the New England coast Wed night. Lows Tue night upr 20s-mid 30s. Highs Wed upr 40s-lwr 50s. Lows Wed night in the 30s to near 40 se. Next powerhouse low across the central CONUS mid week is progged to eject ne across the Gt Lakes region Fri then across nrn New England Sat. Warmer air surges north ahead of this system late Thurs thru Fri as the high retreats farther off the coast. Ample moisture accompanies a southern stream s/w that tracks across the region Thurs night / Fri. Thus, the potential exists for yet another wet system late in the week. Will have chc rain Thurs eve ramping up to likely PoPs after midnight, with likely PoPs continuing Fri. GFS and ECMWF now end the rain north to south Fri night, pushing it into the Carolinas by 12Z Sat. Highs Thu upr 40s-upr 50s. Lows Thu night in the 40s to near 50 se. Highs Fri upr 50s-upr 60s. Lows Fri night mid 40s-mid 50s. Still mild Sat behind the system as the CAA to the north remains nw of the mts thru the day. Highs mid 50s-lwr 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1215 PM EST Sunday... VFR to start off the forecast period with only SCT CU expected through sunset. Mid level cloud deck quickly overspreads the region this eve as a weak area of low pressure tracks NE across the region. SCT light shwrs will move sw to ne this eve and during the pre-dawn hrs across the ern shore. The systm quickly exits off to the ne early Mon with skies clrg behind it. Don't expect more than a 2-4 hr prd of pcpn at any one site with RIC and SBY standing the best chc for seeing rain, lesser chcs toward the coast. CIGS generally VFR, but will likely lwr to MVFR during any shwr. Ltllie if any restrictions in VSBY expected. Light SSW wind shifts to the WNW behind the departing systm Mon. Outlook: Dry with VFR conditions Mon thru early Thu. The next round of pcpn arrives Thursday night and continues Friday. && .MARINE... As of 130 AM EST Sunday... Hi pres extends from the coastal SE states N to near the local waters attm and remains near the region through this morning then shifts offshore into this evening. A cold front approaches from the W this evening...then crosses the waters tonight resulting in an uptick in winds...esp over the coastal waters...but conditions are expected to remain sub-SCA. A period of surge in speeds w/ winds becoming NW late tonight/Mon morning (though remaining blo SCA) before hi pres arrives for Mon night. Sub-SCA conditions are expected Tue into Wed as hi pres remains in control over the waters. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 1015 AM EST Sunday... Flood warnings remain in effect along the James for Ric-Westham, RIC City locks and Bremo Bluff. See latest FLS for details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...MPR MARINE...ALB HYDROLOGY...MPR  FXUS61 KAKQ 241125 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 625 AM EST Mon Dec 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure returns today through Wednesday night. A complex area of low pressure impacts the region late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 625 AM EST Monday... Weak sfc low pressure and an attendant cold front have pushed offshore this morning. In the wake, dry NW flow develops as high pressure noses back into the region from the west today. The last of the cloud cover exits the Eastern Shore before 14z; otherwise, sunny today with afternoon max temps from the upr 40s on the Eastern Shore to the low 50s SE VA/NE NC. Mainly clear and chilly tonight. Lows from the mid/upr 20s inland to the low 30s immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EST Monday... High pressure builds slowly east Tues through Wed. This results in dry wx with seasonable temps thru the period. Expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky on Tue as a trof aloft passes. Mostly sunny Wed. Highs Tue in the 40s. Lows Tues night from the upr 20s to mid 30s. Highs Wed in the upr 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 215 PM EST Sunday... Deepening low pres over the nations mid section Wed tracks NE across the Gt Lakes region Thus then into New England Fri. Meanwhile, a srn stream triple point low and assctd frontal bndrys will track across the sern states late Thurs nite then ne across the srn Mid Atlantic coastal areas erly Fri, with the main cold front not progged across the area until late Fri. Srn stream moisture will get pulled north across the region starting Thurs nite and Fri before getting pushed south into the Carolinas by Sat. Latest data continues to slow the onset of pcpn across the local area until Thurs nite, so kept Thurs dry with incrg clouds. Highs mid 40s-mid 50s. Kept chc PoPs Thurs eve ramping up to likely PoPs after midnight, with likely PoPs continuing Fri. Will not rule out thunder chcs along the sern coastal areas but it will all depend on the track of the triple point low and just how far inland the warm front can get. This scenario may actually set up an insitu-wedge across the nw Piedmont zones. Lows Thurs nite in the 40s to near 50 SE. Highs Fri in the 60s, except in the 50s across the nw. Pcpn get shunted south of the local area Fri night post fropa so will keep chc PoPs thru the eve then end it after midnite. Lows mid 40s-mid 50s. Models are showing a dry day Sat as the frontal bndry stalls across the south with high pressure nudging in from the north. Still mild as the cold push of air is slow to cross the mts. Highs mid 50s-mid 60s. Turning colder by Sun but uncertainty exists between guid on how fast pcpn returns north. GFS shows high pres winning out while the ECMWF showing anthr s/w wave moving north returning pcpn to the region. Will keep Sat nite dry for now with lows upr 30s-mid 40s. Rain returns from the south Sun. Highs mid 40s-lwr 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 625 AM EST Monday... VFR conditions for the 12Z TAF period. NW winds 10-15 kt during the day (gusts around 20 kt at KSBY). Outlook: Dry with VFR conditions through early Thu. The next round of pcpn arrives Thursday night and continues Friday. && .MARINE... As of 115 AM EST Monday... Weak lo pres W of the Bay attm will be pushing across the waters early this morning. SSW winds mainly aob 10 kt will become NW 10-20 kt as the low departs early this morning. Winds may briefly approach SCA criteria in the Bay and northern coastal waters this morning with wind gusts of 20 kt (Bay) to 25 kt (ocean) possible, especially at elevated sites. Winds slowly decrease this afternoon/evening. Hi pres builds back into the region tonight leading to night leading to a period of sub-SCA lasting at least into Thu. Stronger lo pres is expected approach the waters by the end of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 625 AM EST Monday... Flood warnings remain in effect along the James for Ric-Westham, RIC City locks. See latest FLS for details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...JDM MARINE...ALB HYDROLOGY...AKQ  FXUS61 KAKQ 241951 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 251 PM EST Mon Dec 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure returns today through Wednesday night. A complex area of low pressure impacts the region late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 PM EST Monday... Happy Holidays from all of us at NWS Wakefield! Quiet Christmas Eve across the region with high pressure in control. Partly to Mostly clear skies should allow for a decent radiational cooling night despite some wind especially across the east, so expect temps to drop into the mid-upr 20s NW to lower 30s SE by Christmas morning. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 245 PM EST Monday... Generally quiet weather continues through Thursday as high pressure remains stationary from the NE states through the Middle Atlantic. May be some clouds especially across the north on Christmas Day as a sheared out short wave and jet streak rides well north of the area. However, no precipitation is expected with very weak lift. The clouds will keep temps cooler than today, especially across the north. Temps on Tuesday will be in the mid 40s along/north of I-64 to upper 40s-50 south. Slow warming trend for Wed and Thu as heights build and 850mb temps slowly warm. Highs Wednesday in the low-mid 50s, with highs Thursday in the mid 50s north to near 60 SE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 245 PM EST Monday... Next system to impact the region will be Thu night into Friday. Broad SW flow ahead of a deep low pressure system over the MS Vly and Great Lakes will allow for broad isentropic lift across the region through Friday. Precipitable water values rise to near +3SD from the climatological mean for this time of year, so another round of moderate rainfall expected. 00Z EPS probabilities suggest a 50% prob of at least an inch of precipitation Thu night into Friday, but very low probs of >2 inches. This rainfall may be enough to push the main stem rivers into flood once again per MMEFS forecasts from the GEFS and NAEFS, but widespread flooding not expected. However we will certainly be adding to our already record or near record rainfall for several locations in 2018. Models diverge starting Saturday, with the ECMWF suggesting that the front will stall out just south of the area for the weekend, while the other models are more progressive, with another weak upper disturbance impacting the region for Sunday. For now, will maintain a dry forecast for Saturday with the exception of the far southeast, but bring back chance PoPs for Sunday. Next system looks to reload later Monday as a strong upper trough digs over the plains states. Will keep small chance pops on Monday for now, but it is noted that the GFS keeps it dry until New Years Day. Temps will be mild on Friday, as any left over wedge will be quickly scoured out. Highs will generally be in the 60s. A little cooler on Saturday, but still in the upper 50s/lower 60s. Cooler for the Sun/Mon, but temps still near normal in the lower 50s. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1200 PM EST Monday... VFR conditions for the 18Z TAF period. N-NW winds 10-15 kt this afternoon (gusts around 20 kt possible at KSBY and KRIC). Outlook: Dry with VFR conditions through early Thu. The next round of pcpn arrives Thursday night and continues Friday. && .MARINE... As of 245 AM EST Monday... Current observations show NW winds around 10 to 20 knots over the waters. Seas are generally around 3 to 4 feet and waves in the Bay around 1 to 3 feet. Breezy conditions will continue this evening into tonight due to the pressure gradient between departing low pressure offshore and high pressure building to the west of the area. Winds may briefly approach SCA criteria tonight across the northern coastal waters, especially out 20 nm, where winds may gust to 25 knots. Winds will remain elevated this evening into tonight, but any SCA conditions will generally be short lived in nature, thus opted not to issue a SCA at this time. Winds decrease later tonight into Christmas morning. Christmas day through Thursday will feature sub-SCA conditions with winds at around 5 to 15 knots over the waters. The next system approaches from the west late Thursday into Friday, with SCA conditions possible by Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 245 PM EST Monday... Just dropped the flood warning for the James River at the RIC Locks. Continued the flood warning for Westham, but it should be dropping below flood stage this evening. See latest FLS for details. Not much time for the rivers to subside before the next round of rain Thu night into Friday may cause the main stem rivers to once again go into flood Friday or into the weekend per the MMEFS forecasts from the GEFS and NAEFS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM/MRD NEAR TERM...MRD SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...JDM/MRD MARINE...AJB HYDROLOGY...