FXAK69 PAFG 202247 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 147 PM AKST THU FEB 20 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE WELL WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN THE NEAR TERM. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN HANDLING THE BUILDING BLOCKING HIGH THAT SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THEY ARE NOT DOING SO WELL WITH THE SHORTWAVES THAT MOVES UP THE WESTERN FACE OF THE RIDGE BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...505 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO NORTHEAST AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY DRAG OUT OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RIDGING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY WITH A 537 DAM HIGH OVER SIBERIA NEAR 66N 162E MOVING OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY...THEN MERGING WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A CLOSED HIGH WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY SET UP OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR SUNDAY WITH A 558 DAM CENTER. A 518 DAM LOW CENTER 600NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE OVER ATKA ISLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING THEN MOVE EAST. A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT...TO NUNIVAK ISLAND BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST. SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY THEN ANCHOR OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR INTO NEXT WEEK. LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE TO ATKA ISLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING AT 974MB...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING AS IT STRENGTHENS TO 964MB...MOVING TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY SUNDAY MORNING AT 970MB. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY MORNING...TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE LOWER YUKON DELTA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN CONTINUE TO DRAG UP THE COAST INTO SATURDAY AS IT STALLS ALONG THE COAST FROM POINT HOPE EXTENDING SOUTH AS THE LOW MOVES OVER CHUKOTKA. A WEAK LEESIDE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE SATURDAY AS CHINOOK FLOW DEVELOPS...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE WESTERN RANGE. ARCTIC COAST...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. BIG PATCH OF STRATUS THAT WAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS YESTERDAY...THAT WAS SHOWING UP ON THE NPP VIIRS FOG PRODUCT SHOWS UP WELL AGAIN TODAY...HAS MOVED SOUTH TO THE COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE STRATUS BUT A FEW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. THE STRATUS WILL MOVE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE ARCTIC SLOPE AND WILL HELP MODERATE THE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT...SO EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS. 850MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW WARM UP FOR THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND THE COMMUNITIES. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...PRETTY QUIET TONIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM MOVING TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT PRECIPITATION IT TO START OUT AS SNOW BUT CHANGE TO MIXED RAIN AND SNOW BY LATE SATURDAY SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA. AS THE LOW PUSHES NORTH FRIDAY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THE GALE FORCE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE SNOW WILL CREATE NEAR WINTER STORM CONDITIONS...SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR Z211...Z212...Z213 AND Z214. A BAND OF STRATUS AND FOG SEEN IN THE NPP VIIRS FOG PRODUCT IS ERODING...BUT CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WITH STRATUS AND FLURRIES. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AS IT MOVE TO THE WEST OUT OF THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. GEOCAT MODIS SHOWS SOME IFR AND LIFR BUT IT IS OFFSHORE AROUND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND WILL NOT IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. INTERIOR...PATCHES OF STRATUS FLOATING AROUND UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CAN BE SEEN ON THE NPP VIIRS FOG PRODUCT. EXPECT IT TO CONTINUE TO FLOAT AROUND AS IT SLOWLY ERODES. THE GEOCAT MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS NO AREAS OF LIFR OR IFR IN THE INTERIOR. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNDER THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM OVERNIGHT COOLING AND DAYTIME WARMING. CHINOOK FLOW THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE BEGINNING FRIDAY...EXPECT GUSTY WINDS NEAR PASSES BUT NOT TO WARNING LEVELS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213-AKZ214. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. && $$ SDB FEB 14  FXAK69 PAFG 111129 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 329 AM AKDT WED JUN 11 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...NAM...ECMWF...GFS...GEM ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT BIG PICTURE WISE THROUGH 48 HOURS. AT THE SURFACE THEY SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAJOR FEATURES...BUT DIFFER WITH THE MINOR ONES. GFS WAS AGAIN PRETTY GOOD WITH PICKING OUT THE MOST CONVECTIVE AREAS SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THAT SOLUTION AGAIN TODAY. NAM PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS APPEARED TO HANDLE THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION BEST AGAIN TUESDAY SO WILL USE IT AS A GUIDE TODAY. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...541 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER MCGRATH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO OVER INDIAN MOUNTAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THEN OVER UMIAT BY THURSDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE TO OVER BARROW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE OVER 75N 155W IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN BY FRIDAY MORNING. A 542 DAM LOW OVER 53N 180 IN THE SOUTHWESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY THURSDAY MORNING AND OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. A 545 DAM CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING STRAIT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 561 DAM RIDGE OVER ALASKAS ARCTIC COAST THIS MORNING...IT WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EAST AS THE LOW OVER MCGRATH MOVES NORTH. RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL REMAIN STATIONARY. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA THIS MORNING WILL BUILD INTO THE INTERIOR AS THE CLOSED LOW OVER MCGRATH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. AS THIS PROCESS PROGRESSES FLOW ALOFT WILL GO FROM SOUTHWEST TODAY TO SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING TO SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH EAST FLOW OVER THE ALCAN BORDER REGION. AT 850 HPA...NOT MUCH CHANGING TODAY WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION ACROSS THE STATE. BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS HAS REALLY WEAKENED AND IS SHIFTING TO THE EAST. WEAK TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY TODAY AND INTO THE ARCTIC TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM 1033MB HIGH IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL PUSH UP OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY AS IT ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. 1006MB LOW 200NM NORTH OF AMCHITKA WILL MOVE TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUE TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA BY FRIDAY MORNING AS IT STARTS FALLING APART. A 1014MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 47N 170W THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO 150NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE TO 100NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN TO 100NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT BY SATURDAY MORNING. THERMAL TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK OVER THE INTERIOR. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE QUITE STRONG AT TIMES AND WILL EXTEND FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY. CONVECTION...MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE STATE TODAY...BUT EXPECT THAT THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER TODAY NORTH OF CHICKEN...BUT OVERALL LIGHTNING STRIKE COUNTS WILL BE DOWN AGAIN TODAY FROM THE 400 OR SO RECORDED YESTERDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY LOW CONVECTION DAY...BUT IT WILL REBOUND QUICKLY BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEGINNING SATURDAY AND EXTENDING INTO NEXT WEEK. ARCTIC COAST...LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF DENSE FOG AGAIN TODAY OVER THE AREA. GOES LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 0730Z NOT SHOWING MUCH OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BUT THE GOES MVFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 0730Z SHOWS EXTENSIVE AREAS OF MARGINAL CONDITIONS FROM DEMARCATION POINT ALL THE WAY AROUND TO BRISTOL BAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PRETTY FLAT ALONG THE COAST WITH INLAND AREAS WARMER WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTH AND THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT FROM BARROW TO DEADHORSE. A FEW AREAS MAY SEE VISIBILITY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO PERSIST FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIODS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST THROUGH TODAY INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 5 TO 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS BY THURSDAY EVENING. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...LOW STRATUS CEILINGS PRETTY PREVALENT ON THE GOES MVFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 0730Z AND THE VISIBLE SATELLITE VERIFIES THE MVFR PRODUCT. LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES NORTH UP THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY TODAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. DENSE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF KOTZEBUE SOUND AND THE CHUKCHI SEA THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVED CONDITIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH CHANGE IN CONDITIONS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA INTO FRIDAY. INTERIOR...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER NORTH OF CHICKEN. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS NOT SPECTACULAR. DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY AREAS WILL SEE MOVE THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 TODAY. TEMPERATURES SIMILAR ON THURSDAY...THEN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE AROUND THE TOK CUTOFF WHICH COULD SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 20 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY BEGINS TO TREND DOWN WITH MINIMUMS AROUND 30 PERCENT TODAY AND 25 PERCENT THURSDAY. TRIMS CAMP REPORTED 0.47 RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND OKLAHOMA RAWS REPORTED 0.21 BUT THE PRECIPITATION WAS VERY LOCALIZED AND EXPECT THAT WILL BE THE SAME TODAY BUT MOST AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN 0.10 INCH IF THEY GET RAINFALL. LOOKING LIKE A BUSY WEEKEND WITH GOOD STRONG CONVECTION DEVELOPING. && .HYDROLOGY...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SDB JUN 14  FXAK69 PAFG 121136 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 336 AM AKDT THU JUN 12 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...ALL SHOWING SIMILAR SOLUTIONS OUT TO 72 HOURS ON THE MAJOR FEATURES. THEY DO SHOW DIFFERENCES AT 850 HPA IN THE HANDLING OF TEMPERATURES IN THE MID RANGE. NONE OF THE MODELS DID PARTICULARLY WILL WITH CONVECTION WEDNESDAY BUT IT WAS PRETTY WEAK AND WILL BE AGAIN TODAY. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...541 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER UMIAT WILL CONTINUE NORTH TO OVER BARROW THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE OVER 75N 152W IN THE ARCTIC OCEAN BY FRIDAY MORNING. A 544 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING STRAIT WILL DRIFT SOUTH TO OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING. A 541 DAM LOW MOVING OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT THEN MERGE WITH A 539 DAM LOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL MOVE OVER THE INTERIOR THEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AS IT IS UNDERCUT AS THE LOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND MOVE EAST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. AT 850 HPA...ZERO ISOTHERM LIES FROM DEADHORSE TO FORT YUKON TO FAIRBANKS TO DENALI TO BETHEL AND WEST TODAY. IT WILL LIE FROM DEADHORSE TO KIVALINA TO SHISHMAREF TO NOME TO EMMONAK AND SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING. INTERIOR AREAS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 4 DEGREES CELSIUS WARMER TODAY AND THEN INCREASE ANOTHER 4 DEGREES CELSIUS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE...WEAKENING THERMAL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL ROTATE OVER THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING. 1005MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLAND WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY TO BE OVER KODIAK ISLAND AT 998MB BY FRIDAY MORNING. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE BY FRIDAY MORNING THEN BE ENHANCED AS THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER CANADA PUSHES BACK INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY. RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY WILL BREAK OFF FROM THE HIGH AND SLIDE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC TO CHUKOTKA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ARCTIC OCEAN THROUGH FRIDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SIBERIA WILL MOVE OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA BY SATURDAY MORNING. CONVECTION...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE STATE...NAM AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW SOME DECENT INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA. STILL LOOKING LIKE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEGINNING SATURDAY AND EXTENDING INTO NEXT WEEK OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE ALASKA RANGE TO THE BROOKS RANGE. ARCTIC COAST...GOES MVFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 12/0845Z STILL SHOWING GOOD PROBABILITY OF PRIMARILY LOW CEILINGS...VISIBILITY MAY ALSO GO BELOW ONE MILE BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO LAST LONG TODAY IF IT DOES. IFR PRODUCT AT THE SAME TIME SHOWING GOOD PROBABILITY OF OF IFR CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC COASTAL AREAS. AS WELL AS THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND FREEZING AND NOT EXPECTING THEM TO CHANGE MUCH. WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST LOOK FOR SOME WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP FROM POINT LAY EAST TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP DRY THINGS OUT AND PRODUCE CLEARING SKIES. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS THIS MORNING IS ALREADY SPREADING RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AND WILL SPREAD NORTH TO THE KOBUK VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN WILL BE PRIMARILY SOUTH OF HUSLIA TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AND THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE BERING STRAIT...AREAS ON THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND THE BERING STRAIT COAST COULD SEE AROUND ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS EVENT. GOES MVFR PRODUCT SHOW GOOD PROBABILITY FROM THE BERING STRAIT NORTH...BUT THE LIFR PRODUCT IS NOT SHOWING THE REALLY LOW CONDITIONS IN KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TODAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. INTERIOR...PRETTY QUIET TODAY...STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT DO NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS RIDGE MOVING OVER THE AREA SHOULD CAP EVERYTHING. TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE TODAY WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL BUT AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP ON THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE EXPECT WINDS IN PASSES TO KICK UP A LITTLE...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN GUSTS TO 25 MPH TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FRIDAY AS THE THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS BACK INTO THE INTERIOR FROM CANADA. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .FIRE WEATHER...SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES TONIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY TRENDING DOWN WITH MINIMUMS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE TODAY AS DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW PLACES SAW WETTING RAINS YESTERDAY BUT THEY WERE VERY LOCALIZED AND NOT EXPECTING ANY WETTING RAINS TODAY IN THE INTERIOR. STILL LOOKING LIKE A BUSY WEEKEND WITH GOOD CONVECTIVE INDICES BEING PRODUCED BY THE MODELS. && .HYDROLOGY...OVER AN INCH OF RAIN AROUND HUSLIA YESTERDAY THAT IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE RIVER. THEY WERE REPORTING A FALLING TREND YESTERDAY SO THE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY ISSUES. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ203. && $$ SDB JUN 14  FXAK69 PAFG 131309 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 509 AM AKDT FRI JUN 13 2014 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN ALL MODELS WITH SIMILAR SOLUTIONS OUT TO 60 HOURS ON THE MAJOR FEATURES. THEY DO SHOW DIFFERENCES AT 850 HPA IN THE HANDLING OF TEMPERATURES IN THE MID RANGE. NONE OF THE MODELS DID PARTICULARLY WILL WITH CONVECTION WEDNESDAY BUT IT WAS PRETTY WEAK AND WILL BE AGAIN TODAY. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...536 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN 150NM NORTH OF BARROW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH MERGING WITH A LOW OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC BY SATURDAY MORNING. A TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA. A 538 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND BE ABSORBED BY A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A 539 DAM LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MERGE WITH A 539 DAM LOW OVER KODIAK ISLAND THIS MORNING THAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL BERING SEA TONIGHT AT 538 DAM. WEAK EAST TO WEST RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA TODAY AS A 550 DAM CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE YUKON FLATS BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE YUKON FLATS THROUGH SUNDAY. AT 850 HPA...ZERO ISOTHERM LIES FROM BARTER ISLAND TO AMBLER TO KOTZEBUE THEN SOUTH TO ST MARYS THIS MORNING. IT WILL LIE FROM BARTER ISLAND TO POINT HOPE TO TIN CITY TO EMMONAK AND SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TEMPERATURES WILL RISE 2 TO 4 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN REMAIN STEADY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE RISING ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES CELSIUS MONDAY. SURFACE...1014MB HIGH OVER NORTHEAST ALASKA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE JUST OFFSHORE NEAR BARTER ISLAND THIS EVENING...THE HIGH WILL MERGE WITH A 1022MB HIGH OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TO CREATE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA. A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MERGES WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER CANADA. A 996MB LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA TO BE 200NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AT 999MB BY SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. CONVECTION...MODELS SHOWING MOST AREAS AS MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WILL PUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN Z210 AND Z215 AS WELL AS EAST OF FAIRBANKS AND SOUTH OF FORT YUKON OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MUCH MORE ACTIVE SOUTH OF THE THERMAL TROUGH THAT WILL BE SET UP FROM BUCKLAND TO FORT YUKON AND EXTEND EAST INTO CANADA. WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO NEXT WEEK OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF THE THERMAL TROUGH. ARCTIC COAST...GOES MVFR AND IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS AT 13/0945Z SHOWING GOOD PROBABILITY OF PRIMARILY LOW CEILINGS AND MARGINAL VISIBILITY FROM POINT LAY TO NUIQSUT. LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL DRAG WEAK FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING. RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND WILL SET UP JUST OFF THE COAST. WEAK NORTH FLOW WILL TURN TO NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW TONIGHT OVER MOST OF THE COAST WITH LIGHT FLOW INLAND. TEMPERATURES WARMING WITH THE RIDGE OFF THE COAST AND WARMER AIR BEING PULLED IN FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. STILL EXPECT FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BUT WARMER DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE 40S FOR SATURDAY. WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...NORTON SOUND...AND THE SEWARD PENINSULA. FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS ENERGY IS PULLED SOUTHEAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE. UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THERMAL TROUGH THAT IS DEVELOPING WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH TONIGHT...SATURDAY ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO INLAND AREAS FROM BUCKLAND EAST. GOES MVFR PRODUCT AT 13/0945Z HAS GOOD PROBABILITIES AROUND POINT HOPE...CAPE ROMANZOF AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERIOR...ANOTHER QUIET DAY OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR...BUT LOOK FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EAST OF FAIRBANKS...MAINLY OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND SATURDAY TO EXTEND FROM BUCKLAND TO THE ALCAN BORDER AND AREAS SOUTH OF FORT YUKON. ISOLATED ACTIVITY TODAY...EXPECT SCATTERED ACTIVITY SATURDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S BY SATURDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50. WINDS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES HAVE KICKED UP TO AROUND 30 MPH IN SOME AREA THIS MORNING...THEY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH BY THIS EVENING. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY LAST NIGHT NOT VERY GOOD AS MOST AREAS STAYED BELOW 60 PERCENT. SOUTH OF THE THERMAL TROUGH EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO RISE LATER TODAY SO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY WITH MOST AREAS IN TH 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE...THEN FAIR RECOVERY TONIGHT TO AROUND 70 PERCENT. NORTH OF THE THERMAL TROUGH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS DEWPOINTS WILL FALL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW AREAS NORTHEAST OF FAIRBANKS WILL SEE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS TODAY AND TOMORROW...SO MAY NEED RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THAT AREA. STILL NO EXTENSIVE WETTING RAINS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHWEST ZONES WEST OF MCGRATH. && .HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220. && $$ SDB JUN 14  FXAK69 PAFG 142148 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1248 PM AKST WED JAN 14 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. A LITTLE SKEPTICAL IN USING THE GFS AND ECMWF PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE SO WILL LEAN MAINLY ON THE NAM FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. ALOFT...575 DAM RIDGE EXTENDS UP THE WEST COAST FROM OREGON TO THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY TO A 541 DAM HIGH OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TODAY AND REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS IT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. A COL WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST ALASKA AS THE RIDGE STRETCHES OUT AND A 507 DAM LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE ARCTIC THURSDAY EVENING WILL MOVE OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH SUNDAY THEN DRIFTS NORTHWEST OVER THE BERING STRAIT BY MONDAY MORNING. A 506 DAM LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC TODAY AND MOVES OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY THURSDAY MORNING BECOMING STATIONARY...THEN DISSIPATES BY SATURDAY MORNING. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE NORTH IN THE FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT THEY ARE BEING DAMPENED OUT BY THE RIDGE. AT 850 MB...POOL OF ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS AIR WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TODAY AND SLOSHES OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION. IN THE INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY FLAT THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE AROUND A 962MB LOW SOUTH OF SAND POINT TODAY WILL PERSIST AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA BY FRIDAY MORNING AT 967MB. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO 975MB WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING UP THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE ARCTIC COAST. WEAK CHINOOK FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE INTERIOR AND STRENGTHEN A BIT TONIGHT AS TROUGH MOVES TO THE ALASKA RANGE AND LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS. THE WINDS WILL BE UP AND DOWN AS THE SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE RANGE AND THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AND WEAKENS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR...BUT GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN TODAY. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE ARCTIC AS LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC PUSHES NORTH A LITTLE AND THE HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY. EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT EVENTUALLY PEAKING ON FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING DOWN. THIS WILL BRING SOME VISIBILITY ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW TO AREAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND MAY WARRANT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THOSE DAYS. NOT MUCH ELSE GOING ON TODAY...GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 14/1715Z AND THE SPORT MODIS MICROPHYSICS RGB PRODUCT AT 14/1523Z NOT INDICATING ANYTHING IMMINENT. THERE IS A PATCH OF STRATUS OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA THAT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AND MAY IMPACT THE AREA FROM PRUDHOE BAY EAST TONIGHT IF IT STAYS TOGETHER. TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...QUIET TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE RAIN...SNOW...FREEZING RAIN OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...PRIMARILY ZONE 214 AND 215...FRIDAY MORNING AS THEY GET SOME 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO CELSIUS BEFORE COOLING BEGINS. EXPECT WINDS OVER THE BERING SEA AND STRAIT TO CONTINUE INCREASING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. STRONG WINDS ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT COAST MAY BE GUSTING TO AROUND 60 MPH WITH BLOWING SNOW CREATING VISIBILITY ISSUES BY LATE THURSDAY SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE AREA. ALSO...EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE STRAIT ALL THE WAY TO POINT HOPE AND POOR VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS NORTH OF KIVALINA. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL PUSH NORTH...BUT NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH FROM FAIRBANKS SOUTH IN THE FORM OF PRECIPITATION AS IT IS CHINOOKED OUT. NORTH OF FAIRBANKS SOME AREAS WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW...BUT IT WILL BE VERY PATCHY. WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT AND IN THE DELTA AREA...EXPECT WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 45 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S THURSDAY. COASTAL HAZARDS DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ207. WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ213. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240- PKZ245. && $$ SDB JAN 15  FXAK69 PAFG 172252 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 152 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN AND INITIALIZED WELL AT 12Z AGAINST THE SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH THE LOW PLUS/MINUS 1MB. NAM HAS HANDLED THE PRECIPITATION WELL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS SO WILL STICK WITH THAT FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE HANDLED TEMPERATURES WELL SO WILL COBBLE TOGETHER SOME BLEND OF THE MODELS AND CURRENT TRENDS THIS GO AROUND. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR THE WINDS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE STATE BUT WILL BREAK DOWN AND FLATTEN OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 493 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST BERING SEA WILL SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TO BE OVER KOLYUCHIN BAY BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN REMAINS QUASI STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE BERING STRAIT WEDNESDAY. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE WEST COAST TODAY WILL WORK ITS WAY OVER THE RIDGE TONIGHT TO BE OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON THIS EVENING...THEN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN CONTINUES EAST AS IT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES. A 523 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE SITKA AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AT 850 HPA...MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP AROUND ON WHETHER OR NOT WE ARE GOING TO SEE ANY GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION THIS WEEK IN THE INTERIOR...WILL GO WITH NO AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME GOOD COOLING OVER THE COASTAL AREAS MIDWEEK. SURFACE...COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST WITH A 975 MB LOW OVER NORTON SOUND THIS MORNING AND A 981 MB LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MORPH INTO A SINGLE LOW OVER THE BERING STRAIT THIS EVENING AT 978 MB...THEN PINBALLS AROUND A LITTLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING NORTH INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT TO A DEVELOPING 999 MB LOW NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST THIS EVENING TO LIE FROM POINT HOPE TO RUBY TO RAINY PASS...THEN FROM POINT LAY TO ALLAKAKET TO KANTISHNA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AS IT CONTINUES EAST SUNDAY EVENING. A 1004 MB HIGH WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND MOVE OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY SUNDAY...THE OVER THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA MONDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND NORTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT...BUT IT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WINDS WILL SLOWLY FALL OFF AND SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS SO WILL END ADVISORIES HERE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ZONE 201 WHICH WILL HOLD ON TILL LATER THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES MAY STILL GO BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES...BUT NOT FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIODS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ARCTIC THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AT BEST WILL NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY TONIGHT. SNOW TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND TONIGHT AND ENDING BY MID MORNING SUNDAY FOR MOST AREAS. WITH THE LOW BECOMING QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE BERING STRAIT/CHUKOTSK PENINSULA...EXPECT BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND IN THE COOL AIR BEING PULLED SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW. TEMPERATURES OVER THE COASTAL AREAS DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH THE COOL AIR ADVECTION...INLAND AREAS COOLER STILL AS THE BUBBLE HIGH MOVES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT INLAND WITH WINDS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS DIMINISHING TO TONIGHT TO 10 TO 20 MPH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE HERE...WITH THE DECAYING FRONT MOVING THROUGH EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS WEST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS AND NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER...MAYBE SOME FLURRIES TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THERE...BUT NOT GOING TO PUT ANY IN THE FORECAST SINCE PROBABILITY IS SO LOW. SOME COOLING OF TEMPERATURES BUT NOTHING TOO DRAMATIC. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. SATELLITE...SPORT NPP VIIRS/MODIS 24 HR MICROPHYSICS AT 17/1804Z AND 17/1849Z CONFIRMS THE BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH THE DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT THAT IS MOVING OVER THE ARCTIC THIS MORNING. THE GOES MVFR PROBABILITY AT 17/2030Z SHOWS A PATCH OF LOWER CONDITIONS AROUND COLVILLE RIVER AND PRUDHOE BAY THAT IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH BLOWING SNOW AND SNOW. OUT WEST THE VAST AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FOR LOW CLOUDS...SNOW AND FOG. COASTAL HAZARDS DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ201. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JAN 15  FXAK69 PAFG 301217 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 317 AM AKST FRI JAN 30 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION OF THE 00Z MODEL RUN. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAJOR FEATURES IN THE FORECAST AREA IN THE SHORT TERM WITH ONLY MINOR DEPARTURES AS WE GET INTO THE MIDRANGE. MODELS ALL AGREE ON THE TEMPERATURE WARMING TREND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO WILL USE A BLEND AND NUDGE THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECASTS. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS...LEANING ON THE NAM AND SREF FOR PRECIPITATION. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE BUILDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE FROM A 561 DAM CENTER OVER THE BERING SEA WILL FLATTEN OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THE FAST FLOW WILL ALLOW A 499 DAM LOW TO ZIP EAST OVER THE ARCTIC WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER BANKS ISLAND SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL BERING SEA OVER NORTON SOUND BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AT 555 DAM BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND OVER COOK INLET BY MONDAY MORNING AT 548 DAM. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY 8 TO 18 BELOW CELSIUS BELOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE RISE AND BE IN THE ZERO TO 16 BELOW CELSIUS RANGE BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. SURFACE...1045MB HIGH HAS SETTLED IN OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS WITH A 1040MB HIGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A 997MB LOW 250NM NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO BE NEAR 77N 150W BY SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW IS ON THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY REACHING THE BARROW AREA LATE THIS MORNING...THE PRUDHOE BAY AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXITING THE STATE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL DRAG IN BEHIND THE LOW AND HANG UP IN THE BROOKS RANGE. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING 30 TO 50 MPH WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST COAST...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST...BUT STILL BE IN THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE TAPERING DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE EAST. EXPECT SOME BLOWING SNOW ISSUES TO THE EAST SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED LOOK GOOD. WINDS COME UP SHARPLY IN ZONE 204 LATER TONIGHT SO WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THAT AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...NORTHWEST FACING UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL SEE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST INTO SATURDAY BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW COOLING TREND. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...FROM KIVALINA NORTH AND THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STRONG TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 55 MPH. WINDS TAPERING DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND CONDITIONS IMPROVING. SNOW ON THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS TODAY INTO MID DAY SATURDAY WILL TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN ZONE 208 AND 2 TO 4 INCHES IN ZONE 217. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE BERING STRAIT. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SNOW SOUTH OF CHICKEN IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLD WILL HANG ON THROUGH TODAY THEN WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT WINDS. 4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...CONTINUED WARMER THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD SPELL ON THE WAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. MODELS HAVE CHANGED THINGS UP A BIT AND IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE COLD WILL HANG ON INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SATELLITE...A LOT OF HIGH CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE WEATHER SYSTEMS IN THE AREA SO THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS AT 30/1000Z AND MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 30/0950Z NOT MUCH HELP...BUT SOME OF THE STRATUS IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY CAN BE SEEN AS FAR WEST AS THE DOT LAKE AREA USING THE PRODUCTS IN COMBINATION. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ205. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ206-AKZ207- AKZ213. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JAN 15  FXAK69 PAFG 311342 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 442 AM AKST SAT JAN 31 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAIN TODAY OUT TO AROUND 120 HOURS. SHORT TERM IS VERY GOOD WITH STRONG CONCENSUS ON MAJOR FEATURES AND POSITIONS OVER THE FIRST 60 HOURS. ALL AGREE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY THEN A COOLING TREND. MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THEY HAVE FLIP FLOPPED AGAIN AND ARE PUSHING A WARMING TREND FROM THURSDAY ON AGAIN. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND JUST NUDGE THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECASTS. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION WISE IN THE SHORT TERM SO WILL JUST USE A BLEND TO COME UP WITH A CONCENSUS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BERING SEA EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND WITH A 561 DAM HIGH OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. THE CENTER WILL MOVE OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AT 557 DAM SUNDAY MORNING...THEN DRIFTS SOUTH OVER COOK INLET MONDAY MORNING AT 551 DAM. 502 DAM LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY EAST IN THE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL SHARPEN UP AND MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT BY MONDAY MORNING AS IT EXTENDS FROM AROUND 75N TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ZERO TO 16 BELOW CELSIUS BELOW WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND BE IN THE ZERO TO 8 BELOW CELSIUS RANGE BY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE ALCAN BORDER AND WEST COAST. SURFACE...1054MB HIGH OVER THE UPPER YUKON RIVER WITH RIDGE EXTENDING WEST TO A 1046MB HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY AND A 1040MB HIGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE STATE BUT WILL BEGIN TO TILT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN MOVE TO LIE OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY MONDAY MONDAY MORNING WITH A 1040MB CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY AND A 1032MB CENTER OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS. A 1004MB LOW NEAR 76N 140W WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS MORNING TO BANKS ISLAND BY LATE EVENING. A 1004MB LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO WRANGEL ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE EAST TO THE CHUKCHI SEA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST AND SLOWLY DRAG ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...CONDITIONS HAVE CALMED A BIT BUT STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HANG ON OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST UNTIL LATE EVENING. COLD FRONT IS STALL DRAGGING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY SO EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS EVENING AND ENHANCE SOME SNOWFALL OVER THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND NORTHWEST COAST. STILL SEEING SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION SO TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED WEST OF BARTER ISLAND SO WILL CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN ZONE 206. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...EVERYTHING HAS SETTLED DOWN AND THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AROUND UNTIL MONDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL ON MONDAY. 4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...WARMER THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN ANOTHER COLD SPELL ON THE WAY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP SO IT IS POSSIBLE IT MAY CHANGE AGAIN. SATELLITE...LARGE AREA OF STRATUS AROUND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE ARCTIC COAST IS EASILY SEEN ON THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 31/0852Z AND IS CONFIRMED BY THE GOES MVFR/IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS FROM 31/1030Z. THE STRATUS OVER NORTON SOUND AND THE BERING STRAIT CAN ALSO BE CLEARLY SEEN ON BOTH PRODUCTS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240. && $$ SDB JAN 15  FXAK69 PAFG 011236 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 336 AM AKST SUN FEB 1 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AROUND 48 HOURS...THEN THE CONTINUE IN FAIR AGREEMENT OUT TO AROUND 90 HOURS ON THE MAJOR FEATURES. ALL AGREE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY THEN A COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS DIFFER A LOT ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT WEEKEND AS THEY HAVE FLIP FLOPPED AGAIN AND ARE KEEPING IT COLD AND MAKING IT COLDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DROPPING THE COLD AIR OVER THE AREA...SO WILL LEAN QUITE A BIT ON THE OTHER MODELS AS THEY SEEM MORE REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LOW MOVING NORTH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. FOR TEMPERATURES WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND JUST NUDGE THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECASTS. A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY WITH NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION WISE IN THE SHORT TERM SO WILL JUST USE A BLEND TO COME UP WITH A CONCENSUS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE STATE WITH 556 DAM CENTER OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH CENTER WILL WEAKEN TO 549 DAM AS IT MOVES OVER KING SALMON BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN MOVES EAST OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AT 545 DAM BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A 561 DAM RIDGE THAT MOVES OVER THE WEST CENTRAL BERING SEA. A SHORTWAVE OVER SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A 529 DAM CENTER DEVELOPING OVER THE BERING STRAIT. THE LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST TO NORTON SOUND IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...THEN TO BRISTOL BAY MONDAY NIGHT AS IT DISSIPATES. RIDGING FROM THE BERING SEA WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY NIGHT THEN ROTATE SOUTH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN SIBERIA TODAY AND MOVE TO WRANGEL ISLAND BY MONDAY EVENING...THEN OVER BARROW BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND TO BANKS ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ZERO TO 16 BELOW CELSIUS BELOW WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...THEN BEGIN A COOLING TREND. SURFACE...1046MB HIGH OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THIS MORNING EXTENDS WEST TO A 1034MB HIGH IN THE BERING STRAIT. THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES TO THE BERING STRAIT TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL SPLIT WITH 1010MB LOW AND FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST...AND A WEAKER FRONT WITH A 1014MB LOW DROPPING INTO THE BRISTOL BAY REGION AND DISSIPATING. THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE ARCTIC WILL STRENGTHEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST BEGINNING TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO AND THE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN. A 1041MB HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL SPREADING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST BEGINNING OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT BUT SOME AREAS COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH. AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE EASTERN COAST...WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO ISSUE SOME HAZARD PRODUCTS FOR THE AREA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW SINCE IT LOOKS LIKE THAT WILL NOT BE UNTIL TUESDAY. WARMER NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...THEN THE COOLING BEGINS IN EARNEST. WINDS NEXT 24 HOURS GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH AND WILL SWING FROM SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BIG PATCH OF STRATUS WILL BE WORKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...AND THAT WILL BRING LOW CEILINGS AND POTENTIAL VISIBILITY ISSUES TO MOST OF THE AREA. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...STRATUS FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA NORTH THAT DEVELOPED YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO HANG OVER THE AREA. WILL BE BOOTED OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT IF IT DOES NOT DISSIPATE BEFORE THAT. WEAK LOW THAT DEVELOPS IN THE BERING STRAIT TONIGHT WILL SPREAD SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR FLURRIES OVER THE COASTAL AND ADJACENT AREAS...BUT IT WILL IN MOST CASES NOT BE MEASURABLE AMOUNTS. LIGHT WINDS WILL PRIESTS INLAND WITH WINDS ALONG THE COAST BECOMING NORTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR MOST AREAS. A LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS AND STRETCHES TO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY WILL BE A PROBLEM. WILL KEEP THE STRATUS AROUND AS IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE EXPANDING AT THIS TIME AND THERE APPEARS TO BE NO REASON FOR IT TO DISSIPATE. 4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...COOLER THURSDAY OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE AS COLD AIR SINKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. BEYOND THAT NOT MUCH FAITH IN THE MODELS AS THEY CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP ON WHETHER IT WILL BE AROUND NORMAL OR WELL BELOW NORMAL COLD MOVING IN TO THE AREA. SATELLITE...LARGE AREAS OF STRATUS FROM THE YUKON RIVER NORTH AND WEST CAN BE SEEN ON THE MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 01/0755Z AND IS CONFIRMED BY THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS FROM 01/1030Z. NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT IN THE STRATUS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225. && $$ SDB FEB 15  FXAK69 PAFG 021241 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 341 AM AKST MON FEB 2 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. INITIALIZED VERY WELL AT 06Z. ALL AGREE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY THEN A COOLING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT WEEKEND BUT ARE LEANING MORE TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF IT COOLING BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE SCARCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ARCTIC SO WILL LEAN ON THE NAM FOR COVERAGE AND NUDGE WITH THE OTHER MODELS TO GET PROBABILITIES. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...558 HPA RIDGE EXTENDS WEST TO BRISTOL BAY THEN NORTHEAST OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE IS SPLIT AS A 530 DAM LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE BERING STRAIT THIS MORNING AND DROPS SOUTH OVER THE BRISTOL BAY REGION TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATES EARLY TUESDAY. THE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE ARCTIC ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER THE MAINLAND WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHWEST COAST THIS MORNING TO EAST OF BARROW THIS AFTERNOON...TO MACKENZIE BAY BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST AS RIDGING FROM THE 559 DAM HIGH IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BUILDS BACK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. A SECOND MAJOR SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN SIBERIA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN JUST EAST OF BARROW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND TO MACKENZIE BAY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ZERO TO 12 BELOW CELSIUS BELOW WILL BEGIN TO COOL WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TO 12 TO 30 BELOW CELSIUS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES THEN WARM SLIGHTLY BEFORE WHAT MAY BE A MAJOR COOLING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND THOUGH MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON JUST HOW COLD. SURFACE...1038MB HIGH LIES OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE THIS MORNING ...AND A 1043MB HIGH LIES OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY...RIDGING EXTENDS WEST TO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO CANADA LATER TODAY. A 1010MB LOW IN THE CHUKCHI SEA IS MOVING EAST THIS MORNING...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER PRUDHOE BAY WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 1015MB LOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL DROP SOUTH INTO BRISTOL BAY AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE LOW AS A 1035MB HIGH OVER THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC MOVES OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN LATE TUESDAY...THE HIGH THEN MOVES EAST. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SPREADING EAST AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE ARCTIC. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. CLEARING BEGINS IN THE WEST EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE DROPS INTO THE ARCTIC PLAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 20 TO 30 DEGREES BETWEEN TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME CLOUDS AND SNOW WITH THE LOW OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA THIS MORNING WITH THE SNOW ENDING FROM THE NORTH AS THE LOW MOVES TO BRISTOL BAY AND DISSIPATES. SNOWFALL WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE INCH AND BE CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE NULATO HILLS. INLAND AREAS WILL BE CLEARING THIS MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME CLOUDS TRANSITING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BUT NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR. MOSTLY CLEAR BY TONIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS AROUND DELTA JUNCTION AND ALONG THE TANANA RIVER AS THE TANANA JET HAS KICKED IN...BUT WINDS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND. SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE EAGLE AREA AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR SOME OF THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES ARE ALSO ON A DOWNWARD TREND. TEMPERATURES START A COOLING TREND AND WILL FALL 15 TO 35 DEGREES OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS 4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEPARATION...BUT THEY ARE STARTING TO SHOW SOME CONCENSUS TEMPERATURES GOING DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND STAYING COLD INTO NEXT WEEK. WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL MOVE TO THE ARCTIC COAST EVERY COUPLE DAYS SPREADING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE EVENTS. WEST COAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL REMAIN QUIET. SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 02/0839Z SHOWS A LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA SOUTH TO NUNIVAK ISLAND AND EXTENDING WEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. IT IS CONFIRMED BY THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS FROM 02/0930Z. NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT IN THE STRATUS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB FEB 15  FXAK69 PAFG 052232 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 132 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12Z RUNS. INITIALIZED WELL AT 18Z AT THE SURFACE. NO SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS UNTIL 132 HOURS OR SO. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF TO NUDGE THE TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...553 HPA BLOCKING RIDGE IS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ANADYR WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ARCTIC. RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY WITH THE ZONAL FLOW EXTENDING EAST TO THE BEAUFORT SEA TODAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MAINLAND AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY WILL DIG SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH A 511 DAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER YAKUTAT AND BECOMING STATIONARY INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKENS AND IS ABSORBED BY A 497 DAM LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER KODIAK ISLAND. A SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP NEAR 80N TONIGHT AND DIVE SOUTH TO THE ARCTIC COAST BEFORE NOON FRIDAY WITH A 504 DAM LOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PRUDHOE BAY...THE LOW DISSIPATES RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND IS ABSORBED BY THE LOW OVER YAKUTAT...AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVES TO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE WEST OVER SOUTHERN SIBERIA AS THE TROUGH DIGS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE. AT 850 HPA...20 BELOW CELSIUS ISOTHERM LIES FROM BARROW TO YAKUTAT THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR ZERO CELSIUS OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM WILL MOVE WEST BY FRIDAY MORNING TO LIE FROM POINT HOPE TO BETTLES TO DENALI AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT 20 BELOW OR COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIE OVER ALL BUT THE LOWER YUKON DELTA. THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM WILL LIE FROM BARROW TO TOKSOOK BAY BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH 30 BELOW OR COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN MODERATING SUNDAY. SURFACE...1038MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY EXTENDS NORTHWEST TO A 1035MB HIGH OVER PRUDHOE BAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST WITH RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE UPPER YUKON FLATS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH TO THE BERING STRAIT AND WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AND INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND FRONT NEAR 80 NORTH FRIDAY MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTH TO THE ARCTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY...THEN SLOWLY DRAG EAST AND SOUTH EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING OVER YUKON TERRITORY. RIDGING FROM A 1041MB HIGH OVER NORTHERN SIBERIA WILL EXTEND EAST OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA BY EARLY FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. A 1038MB HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN SUNDAY MORNING. A 967MB LOW NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WILL MOVE NORTH TO PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN MERGE WITH A 976MB LOW THAT DEVELOPS NEAR YAKUTAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL DRIFT TO SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN MOVES BACK TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SUNDAY NIGHT AND DISSIPATES. A STRONG GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SECOND FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE HILLS WILL PICK UP AS THE RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY AND THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...MOST ACTIVE AREA IN THE FORECAST AREA. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE HAZARDS OVER THE NORTHEAST COAST AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AS THE SECOND FRONT DROPS SOUTH FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC AND WINDS INCREASE. NOT MUCH SNOW WITH THE FRONT SO BLIZZARD POTENTIAL IS PRETTY LOW AND WINDS WILL ONLY BE MARGINAL. WILL GO WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 203 AND 206. KEEPING THE WIND CHILL FOR ZONE 203 BUT THAT MAY HAVE TO BE MORPHED INTO SOMETHING ELSE LATER. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SATURDAY. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT...THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION AS THE FRONT DIVES SOUTH. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLING TEMPERATURES AS THE NORTHERLY FLOW KICKS. SOME PATCHY STRATUS NEAR THE BERING STRAIT AND OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW CEILINGS TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND MAY CREEP EAST OVER THE BERING STRAIT COAST. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE AREA. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME WINDS OVER THE HILLS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COLDEST AREAS WILL BE IN THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S BELOW. 4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. WARMING TREND WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO SEASONAL NORMALS. SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 05/1308Z SHOWS SOME STRATUS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST...WITH SOME EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING STRAIT AND OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND WEST OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH MOVEMENT BUT IT MAY DRIFT OVER THE BERING STRAIT COAST. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME STRATUS OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS TO THE WEST OF FORT YUKON. THE GOES MVFR/IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE IS SOMETHING IN THOSE AREAS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ207. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ204-AKZ206-AKZ218. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB FEB 15  FXAK69 PAFG 062223 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 123 PM AKST FRI FEB 6 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE SHORT TERM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS UNTIL THE MIDRANGE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER YAKUTAT AND KODIAK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROUGH IS BROADER AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN YESTERDAYS 12Z RUNS. SINCE THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL RUNS IS JUST SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES...IN GENERAL WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO NUDGE THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...552 HPA BLOCKING RIDGE NEAR THE GULF OF ANADYR IS SLOWLY BEING PUSHED TO THE WEST AS THE TROUGH DIGS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND RIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 501 DAM LOW MOVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MERGE WITH THE 500 DAM LOW OVER YAKUTAT THAT FORMED IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OUT OF CANADA. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TONIGHT. THE LOW OVER YAKUTAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TONIGHT AS A 497 DAM LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SHELIKOF STRAIT TONIGHT. THE LOW OVER THE YUKON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST. THE LOW OVER THE SHELIKOF STRAIT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT OVER SAND POINT BY SATURDAY EVENING...THEN LOOP BACK OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MOVE TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EARLY MONDAY. AS THE LOW LOOPS BACK NORTH A 508 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA AND MOVE WEST BEFORE MERGING WITH A LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. AT 850 HPA...20 BELOW CELSIUS ISOTHERM LIES FROM POINT HOPE TO BETTLES TO DENALI AND BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIE FROM BARROW TO KOTZEBUE TO BETHEL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S BELOW ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE 20 BELOW ISOTHERM BEGINS MOVING BACK TO THE EAST AND WILL LIE FROM BARROW TO RUBY TO HEALY AND BY MONDAY MORNING WILL LIE FROM BARROW TO BETTLES TO TOK. SURFACE...A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE ARCTIC COAST FROM A 983MB LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE ARCTIC FROM A 1045MB RIDGE OVER THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC COAST. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A 1042MB CENTER MOVING TO JUST NORTH OF WRANGEL ISLAND AND A 1040MB CENTER DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ANADYR. A 1028MB CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ARCTIC PLAINS THIS EVENING WITH A 1026MB CENTER DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS EARLY SATURDAY. A 965MB LOW OVER PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE TO JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES WEST AND THE RIDGE OVER RUSSIA BUILDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH...AND THE RIDGE OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY BUILDS...THE GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND WILL STRENGTHEN. THE BUILDING RIDGES WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AS A SECOND FRONT SWEEPS DOWN FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CANADA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH TO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA SO EAST OF NUIQSUT WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONE 203 AND 206. WINDS KICKED UP A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED AND VISIBILITY IS DOWN NEAR ZERO SO WILL UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD FOR ZONE 204 THIS EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST...WILL NEED TO ISSUE SOME WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 201...202...AND 205. CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY LATE SATURDAY WITH THE WINDS COMING DOWN...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING DOWN. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WINDS INCREASING IN GENERAL AS THE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH AND THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND WEST IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING DOWN WIND CHILL VALUES ARE FALLING. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 207...209...AND 213. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME WINDS OVER THE HILLS TO 25 MPH DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR ON SUMMITS. COLDEST AREAS WILL CONTINUE BE THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S BELOW. 4 TO 7 DAY EXTENDED...STILL LOOKING LIKE RIDGING WEAKENS TUESDAY AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES NORTH TO THE BROOKS RANGE. THIS WILL PUSH WARM AIR NORTH AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK UP TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR SLIGHTLY WARMER. SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR MICROPHYSICS AT 06/1535Z AND NPP VIIRS AT 06/1511Z CLEARLY SHOW THE STRATUS OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME PATCHY STRATUS IS ALSO SHOWING UP IN THE UPPER YUKON FLATS WEST OF FORT YUKON AND AROUND INDIAN MOUNTAIN. OUT WEST THE STRATUS CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN BERING STRAIT AND WESTERN ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. A QUICK LOOK AT THE GOES MVFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 06/1845Z NOT SHOWING INDICATING MUCH AS FAR AS POOR CONDITIONS. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ213. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ204. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ206-AKZ218-AKZ220. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230- PKZ245. && $$ SDB FEB 15  FXAK69 PAFG 251308 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 408 AM AKST WED FEB 25 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...EXCELLENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. THIS RUN INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS TO TWEAK THE CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE HAS MOVED EAST OVER THE YUKON AND NORTHWEST TERRITORIES THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM LOW OVER WRANGEL ISLAND IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE THIS MORNING AND WILL BE INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY NOON. THE 494 DAM LOW OVER WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE HIGH CANADIAN ARCTIC BY THURSDAY MORNING. A 546 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL MOVE EAST AND DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT AND NORTHWEST ALASKA TO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA TODAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE BEING SHUT OFF. A MAJOR SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA THURSDAY MORNING MOVING TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA FRIDAY EVENING AND CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE. THE SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES TO THE WEST COAST BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO THE YUKON SUNDAY MORNING. A 564 DAM HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING AND RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY SATURDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AS THE RIVER OF MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY OVER THE AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES STAY BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE EVENT. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME POCKETS OF WARMER AIR THAT THE MODELS CANNOT DEFINE DUE TO THE SIZE OF THE GRID. SURFACE...WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING SPREADING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND THE AREA MAINLY EAST OF FAIRBANKS. FRONT MOVES INTO YUKON BY AFTERNOON AS 1034 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN INTERIOR THIS MORNING AND WORKS INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 998 MB LOW NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTH TO THE HIGH ARCTIC TONIGHT THEN MOVES EAST. A 1005 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWEST CHUKCHI SEA AND MOVE JUST NORTH OF BARROW BY THURSDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATE. A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE BERING STRAIT AND NORTHWEST ALASKA TO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA. A 991 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ANADYR BY THURSDAY MORNING AT 1001 MB THEN MOVE NORTH OVER EASTERN SIBERIA. A 1005 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ANADYR THURSDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO THE CHUKCHI SEA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 1006 MB...THEN MOVE TO OVER BARROW BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN INTO MACKENZIE BAY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A 1008 MB LOW WILL SPIN UP INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE EXITING INTO THE YUKON SUNDAY MORNING AS A 1045 MB HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANTLY VARYING CONDITIONS AS EACH FRONT GETS CAUGHT IN THE FLOW AND MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF FLURRIES WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH...THEN PERIODS WHEN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS HEAVIER SNOW AND STRONGER WINDS MOVE THROUGH WITH THE FRONTS. WILL ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ZONE 201 AND 205...BUT AS NOTED CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE. WINDS INCREASING TODAY TO 30 TO 50 MPH AS ONE OF THE STRONGER FRONTS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER INTERIOR ALASKA. THE LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW IN THE ARCTIC...BUT AREAS IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL SEE SOME HEAVY SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY FLAT NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN WARM A LITTLE ON FRIDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...THE RIVER OF MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO ZONES 207...208...210...211...213 AND 217. THE WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS SO INSTEAD OF WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALL THE AREAS WILL ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR ZONE 213 AND UPGRADE THE REST TO WARNINGS IF THEY HAVE NOT BEEN ALREADY. QPF IS STILL PRETTY HIGH OVER THOSE AREAS...BUT GFS SEEMS A LITTLE HIGH SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND SNOWFALL. WINDS ARE A LITTLE MORE FRISKY THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED SO LOOK FOR WINDS FROM NOME NORTH OF 20 TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH...EXCEPT ON THE BERING STRAIT COAST...ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND FROM KIVALINA NORTH WINDS WILL BE IN THE 35 TO 50 MPH RANGE WINDS GUSTS NEAR 65 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRETTY FLAT THOUGH SOME WARM AIR WILL BE PULLED NORTH AND MAY RESULT IN SOME RAIN MIXING WITH THE SNOW ON THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...A FEW FLURRIES FROM FAIRBANKS WEST THIS MORNING AS THE WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. FLURRIES ENDING TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON. SOME CLEARING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THIS WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA WITH NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE BEGINNING SATURDAY...SPREADING SNOW FROM THE WEST OVER THE INTERIOR BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT SOME STRONGER WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING THE VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 24 HOUR AND NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGBS AT 25/0845Z SHOW LARGE AREAS OF STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. NO VIIRS FOG PRODUCTS SO FAR THIS MORNING TO COMPARE...BUT THE MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS WITH THE SAME TIME STAMP INDICATE IT IS MOSTLY STRATUS AND NOT FOG. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ213- AKZ217. BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ201-AKZ205. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ202. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235- PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB FEB 15  FXAK69 PAFG 202129 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 129 PM AKDT MON APR 20 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY FOR THE SHORT TERM AT TO AROUND 60 HOURS. START SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS BEYOND 90 HOURS. WILL LEAN ON A BLEND OF THE GFS...NAM...AND SREF FOR THE SHORT TERM. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...503 DAM CLOSED LOW OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL MOVE NORTH OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE ALASKA RANGE THIS EVENING...AND OVER THE BROOKS RANGE BY TUESDAY MORNING AS A 524 DAM LOW DEVELOPS...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN NORTH OVER THE ALASKA RANGE TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN OVER THE BROOKS RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING. A 519 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND TUESDAY EVENING AND MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THURSDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE STATE AROUND THE LOW OVER THE WEST COAST WITH RIDGING OVER THE CANADIAN PROVINCES. SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE STATE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COMPLEX LOW SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL CENTERS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A 974 MB LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA TUESDAY EVENING. A 1003 MB LOW 400 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 200NM SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND BY TUESDAY NIGHT AT 985 MB...THEN CONTINUE EAST TO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS BY THURSDAY MORNING. A 998 MB LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE NORTH TO BE OVER BARTER ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING AT 997 MB. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL PUSH NORTH OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY TUESDAY MORNING AND OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A 1017 MB HIGH DEVELOPS OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY. RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER YUKON WILL MAKE THINGS INTERESTING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ON THE EASTERN COAST. AS THE LOW PUSHES NORTH OVER BARTER ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING WINDS FROM BARROW EAST WILL SNAP AROUND TO NORTHWEST FOR A TIME THEN SOUTHWEST AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH IN TO THE ARCTIC. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER DEADHORSE AND KUPARUK AREAS WITH A COUPLE INCHES AS THE LOW MOVES JUST EAST OF THERE. THE BROOKS RANGE WILL SEE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THAT COULD PILE UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT COOL OFF EXPECTED. GOES MVFR PROBABILITY AT 20/1730Z CORRELATES WELL WITH THE SPORT MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS AT 20/1529Z. BAND OF STRATUS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST NOT MOVING MUCH AND NOT EXPECTING IT TO. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WITH THE LOW COMPLEX REMAINING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT BANDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVING OVER THE COASTAL AREAS...BUT TIMING THEM WILL BE DIFFICULT. BROAD AREA OF MVFR ON THE GOES PROBABILITY AT 20/1730Z CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON THE SPORT MODIS 24HR MICROPHYSICS AT 20/1529Z. WITH THE LOW SYSTEM QUASI STATIONARY...DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE COASTAL AREAS. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE SOME CLEARING TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES NORTH OVER THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY OFFSHORE AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON THE COAST...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA WINDS SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE VARIABLE WINDS TO 10 MPH. SOME COOLING OVER THE AREA WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES DOWNS A FEW DEGREES...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MIGHT GET A LITTLE INTERESTING THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY HAD AROUND 100 LIGHTING STRIKES YESTERDAY AND THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THE DIFFERENCE IS SOME MODIFICATION OF THAT AIRMASS COULD HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AROUND THE INTERIOR TONIGHT WITH MOST OF THAT ENDING BY TUESDAY MORNING. RIDGING BUILDING NORTH OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BRING CLEARING AND MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRIER CONDITIONS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES NEXT COUPLE DAYS. EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOR DAYS 5 TO 8...BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE STATE. RIDGING OVER CANADA WILL KEEP THINGS DRY IN THE INTERIOR AS PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. && .FIRE WEATHER...WEAK INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...THEN RIDGING OVER THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WINDS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE HAVE DROPPED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT SOME WINDS NEAR PASSES IN THE ALASKA RANGE ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 20 TO 35 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BUT ABOVE 30 PERCENT TUESDAY BUT EXPECT THEM TO FALL INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SDB APR 15  FXAK69 PAFG 082153 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 153 PM AKDT FRI MAY 8 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY HAS BEEN GOOD THIS WEEK. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL SOLUTION FROM THE RUN WEDNESDAY. THE 12Z RUN INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. POSITIONS OF MAJOR FEATURES WERE GOOD...OVER THE MAINLAND PATTERN IS PRETTY BENIGN BUT GENERAL PATTERN WAS GOOD. GFS AND ECMWF WANT TO BRING THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE INTERIOR LATE SATURDAY EVENING...NAM WANTS TO BRING IT IN IN THE AFTERNOON. ALSO THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIPITATION NORTH. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE 3 MODELS TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE A LITTLE. GFS TEMPERATURES A BIT TOO WARM WITH THE CLOUD COVER...SO WILL LEAN TOWARD THE NAM FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST. A BRANCH OF THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND WEST TONIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THAT BRANCH WILL BE SHOVED BACK INTO PHASE WITH THE MAIN RIDGE AS 530 DAM LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND MOVES OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AT 543 DAM BY MONDAY MORNING. A 531 DAM LOW OVER KAMCHATKA WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A 506 DAM LOW OVER THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC COAST WILL SPLIT WITH A LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC...AND A 508 DAM LOW DROPPING OVER THE SEA OF OKHOTSK BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...TEMPERATURES RISE 2 TO 4 CELSIUS NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN STEADY THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE...THERMAL TROUGH GETS SQUEEZED OUT AS THE LOW AND FRONT MOVE NORTH INTO THE INTERIOR SATURDAY. A 1008 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH OVER THE ALCAN BORDER NEAR EAGLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WEATHER FRONT WILL LIE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE BY SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVE NORTH TO LIE FROM BETHEL TO MINCHUMINA TO FAIRBANKS TO CHICKEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUES NORTH TO LIE FROM HOOPER BAY TO KALTAG TO BEAVER TO OLD CROW BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO CANADIAN WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. A 1008 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN MERGE WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH AS IT DEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR MONDAY. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...CHASING STRATUS IS NOT A PROBLEM SINCE IT HAS NOT REALLY MOVED MUCH FOR THE PAST WEEK OR SO. NOT EXPECTING IT TO MOVE ANYTIME IN THE NEAR FUTURE EITHER. GOES MVFR PROBABILITY AT 08/1900Z SHOWING AN AREAS THAT EXTENDS FROM DEADHORSE WEST OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST AND CHUKCHI SEA. A MIX OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE ARCTIC COAST...BUT MAINLY FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW...BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN EAST OF DEADHORSE. EXPECT CEILING HEIGHT TO CHANGE A LITTLE AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT FOR MANY LOCATIONS...BUT NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG ANYWHERE. TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH. A BAND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL PERSIST INTO MID DAY SATURDAY THEN MOVE NORTH. MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE MIDDLE YUKON ON SUNDAY AND MOVING NORTH. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15 MPH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. RAIN MOVING NORTH INTO THE INTERIOR BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING WILL SPREAD NORTH TO FAIRBANKS BY LATE AFTERNOON CONTINUING NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW LONG THE RAIN WILL LAST FROM FAIRBANKS SOUTH...SO WILL LEAN ON THE NAM AS IT SHOULD BE SHADOWED OUT A LITTLE. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE TO THE WEST OF FAIRBANKS WITH 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH POSSIBLE. THIS WILL HELP MELT THE SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE TOO WARM IN THE GFS SO WILL PRIMARILY STICK TO THE NAM FOR GUIDANCE. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH...BUT SOME GAP FLOW WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE TO 25 MPH OR SO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED FORECAST FOR DAYS 5 TO 8...THERMAL TROUGH RETURNS NEXT WEEK WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS. COASTAL AREAS NOT GOING TO SEE MUCH CHANGE WITH LOW IN THE BERING SEA SPINNING WEAK WEATHER FRONTS NORTH OVER THE COAST. ARCTIC COAST WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH STRATUS HANGING AROUND. && .FIRE WEATHER...CLOUDY WITH SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA SO THREAT IS DOWN AT THIS TIME. WARMER AND DRIER NEXT WEEK. DEWPOINTS IN THE INTERIOR RISING INTO THE 40S FOR THE WEEKEND THEN FALLING BACK TO THE MID 30S MONDAY. WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY...NOT EXPECTING ANY RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY...LITTLE RUNS REPORTED UP AND DOWN THE RIVER. EXPECT THE KOYUKUK TO GET CLEAR PAST HUGHES SOMETIME NEXT 36 HOURS. LOTS OF OPEN RUNS ON THE YUKON AND BREAKUP FRONT SHOULD BE PAST CIRCLE TODAY WORKING PAST FT YUKON SOMETIME SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IN THE BUCKLAND AREA YET. RIVER WATCH MISSION IDLE THIS WEEKEND DUE TO LOW FLOOD THREAT...BUT WILL RETURN TO THE MIDDLE YUKON RIVER MONDAY OR TUESDAY. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220. && $$ SDB MAY 15  FXAK69 PAFG 181135 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 335 AM AKDT TUE AUG 18 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM...NOT SO MUCH IN THE MID RANGE AND EXTENDED PERIODS. ALL THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES AS THEY MOVE ACROSS SO WILL USE THE NAM TIMING FOR THE SHORT TERM. USING A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR PRECIPITATION LOCATION AND AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH 549 DAM LOW OVER SOUTHEAST INTERIOR WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE YUKON. A WEAK RIDGE EXTEND FROM BRISTOL BAY OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS THIS AFTERNOON WITH 552 DAM HEIGHTS. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OVER THE ALCAN BORDER BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON AND THE UPPER KOBUK THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST TO LIE FROM ANAKTUVUK PASS TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO KANTISHNA THIS EVENING...THEN FROM DEADHORSE TO BEAVER TO CENTRAL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO THE ALCAN BORDER BY LATE WEDNESDAY. 549 DAM LOW OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THIS EVENING WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND THEN SOUTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST THIS EVENING...WITH THE ENERGY SPLITTING AS SOME OF IT MERGES WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR...AND SOME MOVES SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE AND MERGES WITH A LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY THURSDAY MORNING...MOVING EAST OF THE ALCAN BORDER BY THURSDAY EVENING. OVER THE ARCTIC A 540 DAM LOW 400 NM NORTH OF DEADHORSE WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST TO 250 NM NORTH OF NUIQSUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THEN WEST TO 200 NM NORTH OF BARROW BY THURSDAY MORNING...THEN 400 NM NORTHWEST OF WAINWRIGHT BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH LIES OVER SIBERIA AND THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO LIE OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC...CHUKCHI SEA AND EASTERN BERING SEA BY THURSDAY EVENING AND MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT 850 HPA...ZERO ISOTHERM WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE BROOKS RANGE THIS MORNING WITH SOME TEMPERATURES NEAR ZERO EXTENDING SOUTH OVER NORTON SOUND. THE ZERO ISOTHERM WILL REMAIN STATIONARY WITH SOME NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ZERO ISOTHERM WILL MOVE TO LIE OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE...WITH SOME NEAR ZERO TEMPERATURES OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY...BY THURSDAY MORNING. SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE STATE AROUND A 995 MB LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY THIS MORNING. A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LATER THIS MORNING...AND MOVE OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY THURSDAY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER AND OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE EXTENDING WEST TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR KIVALINA THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM BRISTOL BAY NORTHEAST OVER THE INTERIOR TONIGHT WITH A RIDGE OVER COVERING THE AREAS SOUTH OF THE YUKON RIVER BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE UPPER TANANA AND A 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE YUKON...KUSKOKWIM DELTA. BY LATE THURSDAY THE SURFACE PATTERN BECOMES PRETTY FLAT...BUT EVENTUALLY BY FRIDAY MORNING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR. OVER THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST WITH EASTERLY...ONSHORE FLOW OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST COAST WHICH WILL SEE OFFSHORE FLOW. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...GENERALLY LOW CEILINGS WITH SHOWERS...PERIODS OF FOG...CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN...SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE BROOKS RANGE ABOVE 3000 FEET...EAST WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH...BUT KICKING UP TO 10 TO 25 MPH AS LOWS MOVE WEST TO EAST OVER THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES COOLING A BIT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AT OR BELOW FREEZING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. MAY NOT MAKE IT TO FREEZING ON THE COAST WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WITH THE WESTERLIES SET UP WAVES OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY SHORT PERIODS OF JUST CLOUDY CONDITIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL FOR THURSDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF 0.50 INCH THROUGH FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW OVER COASTAL AREAS WITH WINDS 5 TO 20 MPH TODAY DIMINISHING A BIT WEDNESDAY TO 5 TO 15 MPH. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK AT AROUND 4 FEET IN NORTON SOUND TODAY AND AROUND 5 FEET NEAR POINT HOPE. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF GALENA AND EAST OF ANVIK THIS AFTERNOON. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE INTERIOR INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN A BREAK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND FORCES EVERYTHING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY WILL BE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE...THEN OVER THE GOODPASTER AND SALCHA BASINS TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST TO WEST LATER TODAY AS THE LOW OVER THE ALASKA RANGE MOVES INTO THE YUKON. WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 15 MPH...BUT STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH NEAR THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...SO MOST AREAS WILL SEE UPPER 50S WITH A FEW AREAS THAT GET SUN REACHING THE MID 60S TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .SATELLITE...ON THE 24 HR MICROPHYSICS AT 18/0719Z LOTS OF STRATUS SHOWING UP OVER THE COASTAL AREAS WITH SOME PATCHY STRATUS OVER THE INTERIOR. THE STRATUS IS CONFIRMED BY THE OBSERVATIONS AND COMPARISON TO THE GOES MVFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 18/0845Z. NICE BAROCLINIC LEAF ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE YUKON. && .HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .FIRE WEATHER...NOTHING SIGNIFICANT...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY ABOVE 50 PERCENT THIS WEEK WITH EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. SOME VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON SOUTH OF GALENA AND EAST OF ANVIK TODAY. && .HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAINS IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH SLOPE DRAINAGES AS THE DAY GOES ON...SO LOOK FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT RISES OF 2 TO 5 FEET ON THE MAIN WATERWAYS AND SOME CREEKS AND STREAM MAY GO TO BANKFULL FOR A PERIOD. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ245. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ240. && $$ SDB AUG 15  FXAK69 PAFG 212125 CCA AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 125 PM AKDT TUE JUL 21 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT ON POSITIONS OF THE MAJOR FEATURES OUT TO 120 HOURS OR SO. AS IS GENERALLY THE CASE...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE A LITTLE OVER EXUBERANT WITH THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...SO WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE NAM FOR COVERAGE. THE 850 TEMPERATURE INITIALIZED ABOUT 0.5 DEGREE WARMER THAN THE 12Z UPPER AIR AT MOST SITES...THE EXCEPTION WAS BARROW AND THEY INITIALIZED ABOUT 0.5 DEGREE TOO COLD. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...BIG COL OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 568 DAM HIGH OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA AND A 598 DAM HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC...AND A 542 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WITH A 544 DAM LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. COL DEVELOPS INTO A TROUGH AS THE HIGH OVER THE ARCTIC MOVES WEST AND WEAKENS TO 565 DAM...THE RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC WEAKENS A LITTLE...AND THE LOW OVER THE BERING SEA PUSHES EAST OVER THE PRIBILOFS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA TO KODIAK ISLAND BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA THURSDAY AND MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST FRIDAY EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA. SURFACE...RIDGE OVER THE ARCTIC WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND STRENGTHEN A BIT WITH THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP...THEN RELAX FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE SWINGS TO THE WEST NEAR THE DATELINE. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN YUKON TO COPPER RIVER BASIN TO UPPER KUSKOKWIM TO BERING STRAIT TODAY AND WILL REMAIN IN THAT GENERAL AREA FOR THE NEXT 16 HOURS WHEN A 998 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN ALASKA RANGE...THEN MOVES TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR BY THURSDAY MORNING. A 1002 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER BARREN ISLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST TO THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER YUKON THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...EAST OF POINT LAY OVER THE COAST STRATUS...FOG...WINDS...NOT GOING TO SEE MUCH CHANGE HERE. MODIS SPORT 24 HR MICROPHYSICS AT 21/1547Z SHOWS THE STRATUS REACHING ABOUT 100 MILES INLAND OVER THE PLAINS...BUT EXPECT THAT TO BURN OFF PRETTY QUICKLY INLAND DURING THE DAY OVER THE PLAINS. VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE AT TIMES...BUT FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW IN OFF THE ARCTIC AND WITH IT STRATUS. NOT SEEING ANY REASON FOR THAT TO CHANGE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY...THEN START TO DIMINISH. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SOME AREAS GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH. INLAND AREAS ON THE PLAINS AND THE BROOKS RANGE AND SOUTH OF POINT LAY...PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARMER WITH GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS THAN THE COASTAL AREAS. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO GALENA TO MINCHUMINA AND SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE...SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF KALTAG AND OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST AND EAST OF FAIRBANKS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE SOME SHOWERS MAY LEAK INTO DENALI NP AND AROUND LAKE MINCHUMINA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE RANGE...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS IN THE ALASKA RANGE...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO GET NORTH OF THE RANGE...THEN SOME OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY. AS THE THERMAL TROUGH REDEVELOPS OVER THE INTERIOR EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK. SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS MICROPHYSICS AT 21/1547Z SHOWS THE STRATUS ON THE ARCTIC COAST AND PLAINS...AND DENSE FOG OVER THE YUKON RIVER EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE FOG IN OVER THE YUKON RIVER IS CONFIRMED BY THE GOES MVFR/IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 21/1600Z. EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 5 TO 8...MODELS ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALOFT OVER THE WEST COAST AND RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR STARTING SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SHOWERY REGIME OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS. && COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE. && .FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON EXTENDING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SOUTHWARD TO THE ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH SOME DRYING IN THE CENTRAL...NORTHERN AND EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH THURSDAY WITH RH VALUES DIPPING BACK BELOW 40 PERCENT. THERMAL TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WEST COAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE COAST. THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. && .HYDROLOGY...RIVERS RUNNING UP A BIT FROM THE LAST RAIN EVENT...BUT NOT NEAR ANY ACTION STAGE. MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS TRENDING SLOWLY UP STILL BUT THEY WILL START TO TREND DOWN AS WEEK GET INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ230-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JUL 15  FXAK69 PAFG 221028 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 228 AM AKDT TUE SEP 22 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AT 500 HPA AS THEY CONTINUE WITH SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH AROUND 72 HOURS BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP. AT THE SURFACE SHORT TERM LOOKS GOOD...BUT AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDTERM THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF FEATURES DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY...ESPECIALLY IN THE HANDLING OF THE EXTRA TROPICAL SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA. MODELS MAINTAIN SOME SIMILARITY EVEN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ALCAN AREA WITH 533 DAM LOW MOVING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ALCAN THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING THEN MOVES EAST OVER THE YUKON TERRITORY. BUILDING RIDGE HAS MOVED OVER THE WEST COAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW THAT MOVES TO WRANGEL ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND FLATTEN AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA THURSDAY EVENING THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE. AT 850 HPA...WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY...STRONGEST OVER THE WEST COAST. ZERO ISOTHERM WILL MOVE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH ABOVE ZERO TEMPERATURES REACHING NORTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA BY LATE THURSDAY. SURFACE...999 MB LOW IN THE GULF CONTINUES TO SLIP SOUTH AS RIDGE MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND LIES FROM ADAK TO ST PAUL ISLAND TO NOME TO NUIQSUT TO BANKS ISLAND THIS MORNING. WEDNESDAY MORNING THE RIDGE WILL LIE FROM COLD BAY TO SLEETMUTE TO BETTLES TO BANKS ISLAND...AND BY THURSDAY MORNING FROM KING SALMON TO MANLEY HOT SPRINGS TO OLD CROW THEN EAST. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN SIBERIA WILL MOVE TO 200 NM WEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND. FRONT MOVES OVER THE COAST WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES TO 100 NM EAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND...THE FRONT MOVES TO THE MIDDLE YUKON BY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ARCTIC WITH A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG ON OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR THURSDAY MORNING...AND BE PUSHED INTO CANADA BY FRIDAY MORNING BY THE ADVANCING FRONTAL SYSTEM. ARCTIC COAST...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE TODAY. NOT MUCH GOING ON TO THE WEST AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. STRATUS CEILINGS WILL PERSIST UNDER THE RIDGE. WINDS ARE TURNING TO OFFSHORE AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. INCREASING WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40 MPH AROUND CAPE LISBURNE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SPREADING UP THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...RIDGE OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTH TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVING IN BEHIND THE RIDGE WITH INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUDS. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA COAST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA MEANS PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH WILL START ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND LATE THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EAST OVER THE COASTAL AREAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH 0.75 INCH OVER THE NORTHERN CHUKCHI SEA COAST AND THE NOATAK RIVER BASIN...WITH AROUND 0.25 INCH OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND NORTON SOUND WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH WARM AIR ALOFT. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE ALASKA RANGE FROM DENALI PARK WEST TODAY AND OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE...OTHERWISE CLEARING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL SWITCH AROUND TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH FOR MOST AREAS. && .COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CHUKCHI SEA THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND. INCREASED SURF CAN BE EXPECTED IN NORTON SOUND...KOTZEBUE SOUND...THE NORTHWEST COAST...AND AROUND BARROW. MODELED COASTAL SURGE IN THOSE AREAS IS CURRENTLY UP TO 2.5 FEET WHICH IS NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS FOR BARROW...KOTZEBUE...AND SHISHMAREF. && .HYDROLOGY...NONE AT THIS TIME BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE UPPER NOATAK WITH THE INCOMING RAINFALL. && .SATELLITE...SPORT MODIS 24 HR MICROPHYSICS AT 22/0749Z SHOWS A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE ARCTIC NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST AND NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA...THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...AND A BIG PATCH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE YUKON FLATS TO THE TANANA FLATS AND OVER THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE. GOES MVFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 22/0930Z AND OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM IT. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SDB SEP 15  FXAK69 PAFG 041126 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 226 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION AGAINST THE 04/06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD THE LAST FEW DAYS. THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS OUT TO THE MID RANGE...BUT THE PATTERN OVER MAINLAND ALASKA BECOMES PRETTY BENIGN BEYOND 100 HOURS OR SO. WILL USE THE SAME METHODOLOGY THAT WE HAVE USED THE LAST FEW DAYS AND MAKE ONLY MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN NUDGE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...533 DAM HIGH NEAR 80N 135W WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO 500 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES BY MONDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC. A 515 DAM LOW OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM DRAINAGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWEST TO BE OVER BRISTOL BAY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND OVER DUTCH HARBOR BY SUNDAY MORNING. A 538 DAM HIGH OVER SIBERIA WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE PRIBILOFS ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH THE RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA MOVING WEST TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A 503 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEAR 48N 150W WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO BE NEAR 48N 140W BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT 509 DAM...THEN DISSIPATES MON. AS THE LOW OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM SLIDES SOUTHWEST THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE INTERIOR TONIGHT...EXTENDING TO THE NORTHWEST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY...AND PERSIST INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. AT 850 HPA...ONE LAST DAY OF COOLING...MAYBE ANOTHER DEGREE...THEN THE SLOW WARM UP BEGINS AND CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE WILL START GETTING PINCHED A BIT TODAY AS A 976 MB LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE COAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA...AND THE 1031 MB HIGH IN THE HIGH ARCTIC DRIFTS A LITTLE SOUTH AND RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES STRENGTHENS A BIT. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD ON INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT STARTING LATE SUNDAY. THE PATTERN OVER THE MAINLAND FALLS APART TUESDAY AND WINDS OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND WILL BE LIGHT. THE DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO BE OVER THE WEST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. SATELLITE...SPORT AVHRR NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 04/0634Z AND 04/0815Z SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND THE BERING STRAIT REGION. USING IT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE GOES MVFR/IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 04/0845Z THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF MVFR OVER THE WEST COAST AND ARCTIC...AND THE ALASKA RANGE...WITH A PATCH OF IFR OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC PLAINS. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WINDS PICKING UP ON THE NORTHEAST COAST AND OVER THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA TIGHTENS UP. STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW WILL BE EAST OF NUIQSUT. WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 25 MPH RANGE. TEMPERATURES DROPPING ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO THROUGH SATURDAY THEN A SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE NORTHWEST COAST AND WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 203 AND 204 DUE MAINLY TO THE VISIBILITY ISSUES. WIND CHILL COULD APPROACH 50 BELOW IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AROUND BARTER ISLAND ON SATURDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS...OTHERWISE CLEARING TODAY AS THE RIDGE OVER SIBERIA PUSHES A BIT EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A BIT MORE...UP TO 10 DEGREES COOLER...OUT HERE AS THE COLD AIR IS DRAGGED SOUTH IN THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IN SIBERIA AND THE LOW MOVING OVER BRISTOL BAY. WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE BERING STRAIT WILL PICK UP TO GALE FORCE WITH WINDS NEAR 50 MPH ON THE BERING STRAIT COAST. DO NOT EXPECT TOO MANY ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW BUT WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE BERING STRAIT COAST TO COVER THE STRONG WINDS AND PERIODS OF POOR VISIBILITY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND THICKENING OVER THE INTERIOR AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NIKOLAI AREA. EXPECT SOME FLURRIES AROUND THE AREA...BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IF ANY FOR MOST AREAS. THE LOW MOVES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR BY LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS PICKING UP AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL BLOWING SNOW OVER SOME OF THE SUMMITS IN THE INTERIOR. MODELS INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE YUKON FLATS. NORTH WINDS ALSO PICK UP A BIT IN THE PASSES AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ213. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240- PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 16  FXAK69 PAFG 241051 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 251 AM AKDT THU MAR 24 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH DAY 5 BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP. CURRENT RUNS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE BY NUDGING TO A BLEND OF THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS AND NUDGING THE TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND YESTERDAYS HIGHS IN THE INTERIOR. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...WEAK RIDGE WITH 537 DAM CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND 539 DAM HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL YUKON TERRITORY WILL MERGE INTO A MORE NORTH SOUTH ORIENTATIONS WITH A 542 DAM CENTER OVER CORDOVA BY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK EAST AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS IN AND EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ARCTIC TO THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ALCAN FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH WILL HAVE A 498 DAM CENTER NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND...A 524 DAM CENTER OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...AND A 521 DAM CENTER SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER HALF OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AS THE LOWER HALF SWINGS EAST FRIDAY WITH THE CENTER TO THE SOUTH MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF KODIAK ISLAND AT 524 DAM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER HALF OF THE TROUGH WILL ABSORB SOME ENERGY AND SWING EAST OVER THE BERING STRAIT SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY MOVING INTO CANADA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BEHIND THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE...THEN BUILDS NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR BEHIND THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE. AT 850 HPA...SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT THROUGH SUNDAY. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND ARCTIC COAST. SURFACE...BENIGN FLOW OVER THE STATE WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ALCAN BORDER AND ARCTIC COAST AND WEAK TROUGHING OVER BRISTOL BAY AND EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON TODAY. TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT AS IT GETS SOME REINFORCEMENT ALOFT AND A 998 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING...MOVING NORTH TO THE UPPER KOBUK BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EAST OVER THE UPPER PORCUPINE RIVER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE YUKON BY SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAK 1008 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF BARROW THIS MORNING AND MOVE NORTHEAST. A RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC SATURDAY. SATELLITE...SPORT LEO NPP VIIRS 24 HR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT AT 24/0839Z SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT BAND OF STRATUS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST BERING SEA THROUGH THE STRAIT...OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA...THE NORTHWEST COAST AND WESTERN ARCTIC PLAIN AND THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST WEST OF BARTER ISLAND. AREA HAS NOT MOVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. ALSO SHOWS STRATUS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS AT 24/0845Z SHOWS MOST OF THE STRATUS OVER THE ARCTIC IS MVFR...BUT THERE ARE PATCHES OF LIFR NEAR DEADHORSE AND THE WESTERN ARCTIC PLAIN. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WITH THE WEAK LOW DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND BROOKS RANGE DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE. STRATUS...SOME FLURRIES...AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST. WINDS PRIMARILY FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. THEN SWITCH AROUND TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME SNOW TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND TO THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES COOLING A BIT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CHUKCHI SEA AND ARCTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF PRECIPITATION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOSTLY SNOW AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON AND EASTERN NORTON SOUND THIS EVENING...THEN SPREADS OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND...THE EASTERN SEWARD PENINSULA...AND THE UPPER KOBUK BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN TAPER OFF AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES IN THE NULATO HILLS...AND NORTH OF AMBLER IN THE UPPER KOBUK CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN MOST OF THE OTHER AREAS THAT GET SNOW. WILL BE ISSUING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 215...216...AND 217. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INLAND WITH NORTH WINDS IN THE COASTAL AREAS AT 10 TO 25 MPH...EXCEPT TO 35 MPH ON THE BERING STRAIT COAST. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY...THEN COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE IT WARMS UP AGAIN. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WEST OF NENANA FRIDAY EVENING...AND INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY LATE SATURDAY. HEAVIEST SNOW IN THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AND THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE DECIDING IF IT WARRANTS ADVISORIES. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TURNING FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT SOUTH WINDS PICKING UP THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES TO 25 TO 40 MPH. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ215-AKZ216. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220. && $$ SDB MAR 16  FXAK69 PAFG 251056 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 256 AM AKDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH DAY 5. CURRENT RUNS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE BY NUDGING TO A BLEND OF THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...WEAK RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TODAY AND BE OVER THE YUKON BY SATURDAY MORNING. LONG WAVE TROUGH OUT WEST WITH A 495 DAM CENTER NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND...A 524 DAM CENTER OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND...AND A 522 DAM CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL ALASKA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THE UPPER HALF OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WHILE THE LOWER HALF FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND SOUTH MOVES RAPIDLY EAST OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY LATE TONIGHT AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE NORTHERN HALF WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE LOW 400 NM NORTHEAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND AND THE SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE BERING STRAIT TO ST MATTHEW ISLAND...THEN OVER THE WEST COAST SATURDAY EVENING...AND THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST AND MIDDLE YUKON BY SUNDAY MORNING. A 512 DAM LOW 600 NM SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA WILL MOVE TO 300 NM SOUTH OF ADAK BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN DIVES SOUTH. AT 850 HPA...WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN WARMING WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST. TEMPERATURES IN THE TANANA VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST INTERIOR WILL RISE TO AROUND ZERO CELSIUS BY TUESDAY AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SURFACE...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ALCAN WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AROUND A 996 MB CENTER SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA...A 999 MB LOW OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS...WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO A 999 MB LOW OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...AND TROUGHING EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO AMBLER...THEN EAST OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE. THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES EAST AND THIS EVENING WILL HAVE MULTIPLE CENTERS OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY...BETHEL...THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...THE UPPER PORCUPINE...AND SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. A BROAD TROUGH ALSO REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC WITH A WEAK RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE ARCTIC COAST. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST WITH RIDGING MOVING OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND CHUKCHI SEA. SATELLITE...THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS AT 25/0745Z SHOWS MOST OF THE STRATUS OVER THE ARCTIC IS MVFR...BUT THERE ARE PATCHES OF LIFR NEAR DEADHORSE AND THE WESTERN ARCTIC PLAIN. STRATUS WITH THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND EASTERN BERING SEA IS MAINLY MVFR AS WELL. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...PLENTY OF STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE. EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE ARCTIC AND THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TODAY. EXPECT SOME FLURRIES OR EVEN PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE AREA THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MARCHES EAST. SOME HEAVIER SNOW IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE COULD BRING AROUND 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. MAINLY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL TURN TO NORTHEAST LATER TODAY ALONG THE COAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. INLAND AND BROOKS RANGE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 20 MPH. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL ALL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE NULATO HILLS TODAY...WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW NORTH OF AMBLER OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 215 AND 216...AND ISSUE A NEW ONE FOR ZONE 217 NORTH OF AMBLER. SNOW OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA EAST OF DEERING WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. WINDS INLAND WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH WINDS ALONG THE COAST BECOMING NORTH AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN START WARMING. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY...BUT EXPECT THE WARM TEMPERATURES TO LAST FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE THEY START COOLING. SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW WEST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS TODAY...THEN SOME SNOW TONIGHT WEST OF A LINE FROM BETTLES TO NENANA TO HEALY. ALSO SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE ALASKA RANGE. SATURDAY LOOKS A BIT TRICKIER WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING MIXING WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF LIVENGOOD AND EAST OF MINTO. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE EAST TODAY...THEN TURNING FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND AT 5 TO 15 MPH...EXCEPT SOUTH WINDS PICKING UP THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES TO 25 TO 40 MPH. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220. && $$ SDB MAR 16  FXAK69 PAFG 061134 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 334 AM AKDT MON JUN 6 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...There has been good run to run continuity, but the models did not perform very well with the rapidly moving system that moved across the state yesterday. With the pattern not being as active today, they should do better. They did initialize well against the 06Z surface analysis, but are still struggling beyond 78 hours as they diverge significantly. ALOFT...At 500 HPA...571 dam high center 200 west of the Gulf of Anadyr will move slowly south and west while a ridge extends southeast over Unimak Island. A 533 dam low 250 nm north of Demarcation Point will move north and be absorbed by a low moving out of the high arctic over the western arctic. The associated trough extends southwest over Iliamna lake and will very slowly move southeast to be over the yukon territory by Wednesday morning. A 539 dam low will develop in the trough over Minto this morning and move over the upper Yukon flats by Tuesday morning and dissipate. A ridge axis will move over the northwest coast this today and lie from Norton Sound to Kaktovik by Tuesday morning, and over the central part of the state by Tuesday evening. A developing low near the pole will deepen to 518 dam tonight as it moves to 400 nm north of Wrangel Island, and to 515 dam by Wednesday morning as it moves to 400 nm north of Barrow. The first shortwave associated with the low will move over the northwest coast late Tuesday moving east across the arctic to the Beaufort Sea by mid day Wednesday. A second, stronger shortwave, associated with the low will move over the Chukchi Sea early Wednesday and over the northwest coast and Bering Strait by Wednesday afternoon and move across the arctic by Thursday afternoon. Ridging south of the Brooks range will keep most of the energy associated with the shortwaves over the arctic. AT 850 HPA...Zero isotherm lies from Dawson Yukon to Nikolai to Kaltag to Wainwright this morning and will move north today, and by Tuesday morning the zero isotherm will only be over the northwest coast as warmer air surges over the rest of the state. It will start moving south Tuesday night and will lie from Shingle Point Yukon to Gambell as cooler air surges south, then stalls. SURFACE...A trough lies over the southern interior along the north slopes of the Alaska range and in the upper Tanana valley this morning, and will continue to slowly move south and east. Ridging continues to build in over the northwest part of the state behind the front and will move east and south. A 1015 mb center develops over the arctic plain this morning and moves to the northern Yukon Territory late this evening. Ridging will move south of the Brooks range later this morning and persist into Tuesday before being pushed out as the next frontal system develops over the Brooks range with a 1006 mb low near Coldfoot developing and moving east into the Yukon early Thursday. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...Flow changing trough the day from onshore to offshore to easterly later this evening over most of the area. Not much change in conditions except the winds. Lots of stratus on the GOES MVFR/IFR probability products at 06/0915Z. May see a few breaks in the inland areas, but the coastal areas will be cloudy. The next front will make its way to the northwest coast Tuesday morning and spread rain to the area west of Barrow. Precipitation will initially be rain, but cold air surging in behind the front will change it to a mix of rain and snow Tuesday night on the coast and in the Brooks range. Areas in the Brooks range will see another round of heavy snowfall with 2 to 5 inches possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A weak shortwave will move south over the Chukchi Sea and Bering strait this afternoon and evening spreading some isolated showers to the area, otherwise most areas will be mostly sunny today. The next front will move to the area Tuesday afternoon moving south across the Chukchi Sea and spreading showers to the western interior early Tuesday morning as it weakens. Warmer the next day or so as some warm air surges north in advance of the front. Winds generally northwest to north at 5 to 15 mph with slightly stronger winds on the coast and with the weather front. No significant rainfall is expected with this next system. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the east and south of Fairbanks will slowly come to an end as the system that moved through the central interior yesterday moves east into the Yukon. Patchy dense fog this morning. Winds generally light and variable. Temperatures slowly warming. The next system will move to the area on Wednesday afternoon spreading isolated showers and thunderstorms to the area. && .COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...None. && .FIRE WEATHER...Pretty quiet and expected to stay that way. Some Isolated thunderstorm activity today over the southeast interior, and with the next system that moves across the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures a bit warmer the next few days, but generally near normal for early June. No significant winds, but they could be gusty with the next weather front that moves across the state. && .HYDROLOGY...Some pretty heavy rains Sunday, but most rivers and streams well below normal levels and they should be able to absorb the runoff. No significant rainfall expected with the next weather system. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory for PKZ245. && $$ SDB JUN 16  FXAK69 PAFG 112113 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 113 PM AKDT SAT JUN 11 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...Very good agreement in the short term with improved agreement in the extended periods. Initialized with a couple millibars against the surface analysis at 11/18z. Going to maintain continuity with the previous forecasts so just going to nudge the current database for the short term. ALOFT...At 500 HPA...Ridging over the southeastern interior extends from Eagle northwest over Point Hope and will weaken a bit as the eastern continues to move northeast while the west drops south so the ridge will lie along the south slopes of the Brooks range and over Kotzebue sound by Sunday morning. A 538 dam low over Cold Bay will move east to the southwestern Gulf of Alaska by Sunday morning at 541 dam, then continue east to 100 nm west of Ketchikan by Monday morning. A shortwave over the western arctic will spin around the 515 dam low 600 nm northwest of Wrangel island to lie over the northwest coast early Sunday as it weakens. The low will move south tonight to be 200 nm north of Wrangel island with a shortwave extending south and merging into the longwave trough over the west coast. The low will move east to 200 nm northwest of Barrow Sunday night then moves north into the high arctic by Tuesday morning. The longwave trough will slowly march east across the state with it over the middle Yukon valley by Sunday morning and will lie from over barrow to Delta Junction to off the coast near Sitka by Monday morning. A strong shortwave will spin around the low in the arctic to be over the northwest coast late Sunday evening, and will lie from barrow to Galena Monday afternoon, and from Deadhorse to Delta Junction by Tuesday morning. A col will move over the Bering Strait this evening, the western interior by Sunday morning, and the eastern interior by Monday morning. AT 850 HPA...Zero isotherm over the arctic. Over the upper Yukon flats and south slopes of the Brooks range temperatures around 10 celsius tonight will persist through Sunday then start cooling. The remainder of the forecast area will generally have temperatures between 3 and 8 degrees celsius into Monday. The next front will move over the northwest coast monday and the zero isotherm will lie from Deadhorse to Ambler to Cape Espenberg by Monday afternoon. SURFACE...Pretty benign pattern over the interior with weak trough across the middle of the state and plenty of moisture being slung north. Low in the northwest arctic will continue to spin in place through tonight them moves east spinning a cold front to the northwest coast Sunday night. Weak trough moves north to the south slopes of the Brooks range by Monday afternoon and ridging will build in over the eastern bering sea and along the north slopes of the Alaska range by early Tuesday. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...Some stratus along the coast tonight, while inland over the southern plains and central Brooks range it will be partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Weak front will bring more clouds to the northwest coast Sunday. GOES MVFR/IFR probability product at 11/1915Z indicates mainly VFR conditions over the arctic, which is a drastic change from normal. Much warmer than it has been in the inland areas and Brooks range tonight and Sunday. Winds generally southwest to west 5 to 20 mph through Sunday with the strongest winds over the northwest coast. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...Isolated thunderstorms and scattered showers this evening south of ambler, and to a lesser extend on Sunday. Some of the heaviest rains will be in the Nulato hills tonight and Sunday with rainfall amounts around a half inch. The next cold front will move into the area from the northwest early Monday morning and spread some showers to the Chukchi Sea coast and Kotzebue sound region by early Monday morning. Temperatures similar to today through Monday morning, then cooling a bit to begin the week. Light winds through early Monday then picking up from the west and northwest on the coast as the cold front moves through the area. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...Isolated thunderstorms and scattered showers this evening with showers overnight persisting through Monday over the central interior, and Tuesday in the eastern interior. Some of the thunderstorms will have small hail, short heavy downpours, and gusty winds to 25 mph. Much of the thunderstorm activity will move north into the upper Yukon flats on Sunday, but there will still be a slight chance to the south. A slight cooling trend through mid week. Winds generally light except near the Alaska range winds will be gusting to near 30 mph. && .COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...None. && .FIRE WEATHER...Minimal fire weather concerns for Northern Alaska over the next few days. Relative Humidities will increase as moisture spreads north, especially over the Northern Interior where conditions have been the driest. Most locations should generally see relative humidity values above 35 percent through early next week. Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected to continue and develop over the Interior and Central Brooks Range. They will likely be isolated in coverage, but there is the possibility for scattered thunderstorms from Anvik to Galena east through Fairbanks and Circle. Chances for thunderstorms will shift to the north Sunday and in an area from Tanana to Circle and north. Wetting rains are possible over the Middle Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country this evening into Sunday. Numerous showers and periods of rain are expected and could potentially bring upwards to three quarters of an inch of rain...heaviest southeast of Fairbanks. && .HYDROLOGY...Some locally heavy showers but not expected to be widespread enough to create any issues. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ201-PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB JUN 16  FXAK69 PAFG 161043 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 243 AM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...Similar solutions through around 48 hours, then they are really struggling with what to do with the ridge breaking down and the low moving east or northeast across the state. Over the arctic models disagree on whether or not a low or a ridge move over the high arctic by Saturday morning. For the near term the forecast is pretty straight forward so will maintain continuity by just nudging to the current model solutions. Beyond 48 hours will go with a blend of the latest solutions with a lean toward the NAM precipitation solution through Sunday morning then ALOFT...At 500 HPA...574 dam center over the middle Yukon valley will move southeast over the Anchorage bowl this morning with ridging extending northwest over Kotzebue Sound, and continues south into the Gulf of Alaska this evening with ridging extending northwest over Point Hope. The high center will be over the Gulf of Alaska Friday morning at 570 dam with ridging extending north over the middle Tanana valley then northwest over Cape Lisburne. The ridge will continue to slowly work east and by Saturday morning will lie over the AlCan border extending north into the Beaufort Sea. A 537 dam low in the eastern Beaufort Sea will move southeast into the Northwest Territories. A 545 dam low in the central Bering Sea will move slowly east to be over St Matthew Island by Friday morning, then north over the Bering Strait. Beyond that the models have different takes on what will happen, but eventually the low will fill and move east or northeast across the state by Tuesday with ridging building back over the state for the middle of next week. AT 850 HPA...Zero isotherm lies from Old Crow Yukon to Umiat to Wainwright this morning and will move northeast out of the state tonight. A band of 10 to 13 degree celsius temperatures lies northwest to southeast across the state, and by Saturday morning those warmer temperatures will lie over the AlCan border. some near zero celsius temperatures will move over the west coast Friday in advance of the upper level low. SURFACE...1026 mb high 50 nm east of Barrow will move east to 150 nm north of Deadhorse this evening then moves north, then a 1016 mb high over the NWT will merge with it as the center moves into the eastern Beaufort Sea near Banks Island by Saturday morning. Thermal trough over the upper Tanana valley will persist. A 1007 mb low over the central Bering Sea will move to the Bering Strait by Friday morning as a 1008 mb low over Cold Bay this morning is absorbed into it. Weak troughing over the Gulf coast will slowly move north and merge into the thermal trough along the north slopes of the Alaska range, while weak ridging build over the Gulf coast. The trough will continue to move northeast across the interior on Saturday as the ridge builds to the south. A 995 mb low will move over the central aleutians Saturday morning, and over the southwest mainland by Sunday morning. Showers will spread north up the coast and the western interior Friday with the first low, then spread into the interior Saturday night and Sunday, but with so much model disagreement it is difficult to say to what extent. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...GOES MVFR/IFR Probability product at 16/0815Z indicates some pretty extensive coverage of MVFR stratus over the arctic coast and extending south into the plains. With the high moving to the east and easterly flow persisting over the arctic coast, do not expect much change, though expect a few breaks during the afternoon and evening as the land warms. A few flurries possible this morning around Barrow, but no accumulation. Winds generally 5 to 20 mph. Temperatures warming a bit today, then a bit warmer on Friday. Inland areas will be quite a bit warmer as they will see some good surface heating with the stratus dissipating. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...Some showers moving north over the Norton Sound region and into the lower Yukon delta tonight and will continue north Friday with showers over most of the area. The heaviest rains will be in the upslope terrain regions, but even there expect it to be less than one half inch. Winds will generally be light across the region with the strongest winds around 20 mph on the Bering Strait coast on Friday. A cooling trend beginning today will continue through Saturday. A chance of some embedded thunderstorms northwest of Huslia Friday. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...Will continue to be very nice in the interior today with highs around 80. Some clouds over the northeast interior with a slight chance of thunderstorms and showers over the Fortymile country and upper Yukon Valley this afternoon and evening. Will continue to be quiet on Friday with a slight chance of thunderstorms and showers northwest of Tanana. More extensive coverage of Thunderstorms and showers Saturday. Winds will generally be light, but expect some gusty downslope winds in the Alaska range into the thermal trough during the afternoons. Temperatures will continue to climb through Friday with highs in the mid 80s for some locations Friday afternoon. Cooling trend for the weekend, but expect highs in the lower 70s. && .COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...None. && .FIRE WEATHER...South and east of the Yukon river today...Near Red Flag conditions during the afternoon hours as stronger downslope and gusty winds into the thermal trough develop. Most of the interior will have relative humidity values in the 20 to 30 percent range today, and slightly drier on Friday east of Tanana and south of the Yukon river. Temperatures cooling west of Tanana with warmer temperatures to the east today and Friday. Not a lot of thunderstorm activity, but a slight chance this afternoon over the Fortymile country and upper Yukon valley. Near Red Flag conditions again Friday in the interior that may require more action later today. && .HYDROLOGY...No issues today. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235. && $$ SDB JUN 16  FXAK69 PAFG 241131 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 331 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...Excellent run to run continuity. No Canadian model to work with today. They all initialized well against the 24/0600Z surface analysis. The ECMWF brings a sharper trough across the arctic this weekend, while the GFS is flatter and faster. All the models have the cutoff low over the southwest coast dropping southeast of Kodiak Island tonight and into the northwest Pacific to 50n 150w where is spins around through at least the middle of next week. Convection will be the big issue in the interior while rain from the Seward Peninsula south will gradually taper off. Models indicate the convection will be mainly west of Fairbanks in the inland areas between the Brooks range and Alaska range. Will use a blend today with a lean toward the NAM for precipitation coverage and a nudge to the SREF to increase the probabilities. ALOFT...At 500 HPA...a closed 549 dam low over the eastern Yukon Territory is moving northeast. A 561 dam high over the central Brooks range will weaken slightly as it moves south over the central interior tonight and a col develops. A closed 548 dam low over the southwest mainland will move southeast into the northeast Pacific tonight. A 537 dam closed low over the dateline near 78n will move east to 80n 150w by Saturday morning with a shortwave extending south to Nuiqsut, and by Saturday afternoon will be over the eastern Beaufort Sea. a 581 dam ridge over the western Bering Sea will move to the central Bering Sea by Saturday morning with ridging poking in over the Norton Sound, and by Sunday morning the ridging will extend east over the central interior. A 542 dam low will develop 300 nm northwest of Wrangel Island Saturday morning and move to 150 nm northwest of Wainwright by Sunday morning with a shortwave extending south over the Bering Strait, moving east to 150 nm north of Barrow by Sunday evening with the shortwave extending south over Galena. A backdoor shortwave will develop over the southern Yukon Territory on Sunday morning and move over the eastern interior Sunday evening then merge into the longwave trough by Monday morning over the central interior. AT 850 HPA...Forecast area is above Zero Celsius with areas of the central interior near 15 degrees Celsius. Not a lot of change next couple days, then some cooling late Sunday as the zero isotherm moves over the northwest coast and by Monday morning most of the area north of the Brooks range will be at or below zero Celsius, while the remainder of the area will be slightly cooler with temperatures in the 5 to 10 Celsius range. SURFACE...Broad low pressure system over state with low centers over the southwest, the central interior, the upper Tanana valley, and the central arctic coast this morning. The low over the arctic coast will continue to move east today in the eastern Beaufort Sea tonight. The low over the southwest will move south over Kodiak Island tonight and into the northeast Pacific where it will become quasi stationary into the middle of next week. The thermal trough will remain over the upper Tanana valley and central interior as a 1007 mb low develops over the northern interior late Saturday. A ridge of high pressure over the Chukotsk Peninsula will move over the Bering Strait and northwest coast this evening with a 1015 mb high breaking off over the Chukchi Sea and moving east across the arctic tonight to be over Barrow by Saturday morning, and to MacKenzie Bay and the Eastern Beaufort Sea by Sunday morning. As a 999 mb low moves in behind the high it will merge with the low over the central interior and the whole system will move east across the arctic on Sunday with a trough extending east to west over the upper Yukon flats Monday. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...Cloudy over the northwest coast and Central arctic around Barrow, partly cloudy to clear to the east today. Weak trough will move east later today spreading clouds east, while some clearing is possible to the west as high pressure moves over the area. GOES MVFR/IFR Probability product at 24/0915Z indicates some lower stratus ceilings south of Point Lay this morning, but most of the stratus is offshore. Models suggest this will continue, but with the onshore flow moving over the area expect that some of that stratus will also move onshore over the coastal areas tonight. Not expecting much precipitation if any next 24 hours. As mentioned above southeast flow will turn to north flow as the high moves over the northwest coast tonight. Temperatures will be pretty warm today, especially in the interior plains areas and the central coastal areas that stay in the east to southeast flow most of the day. Cooler temperatures the remainder of the weekend with onshore flow. Winds generally 5 to 15 mph. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...Some patchy dense fog this morning around the Bering Strait and on St Lawrence Island. The GOES MVFR/IFR Probability product at 24/0915Z and observations indicate IFR conditions over the northeast Chukchi Sea coast, Kotzebue Sound, the Bering Strait, and some MVFR conditions in Norton Sound. Do not see much change in that today as the ridge continues to build in from the west and the low moves southeast. Conditions continue to be relatively unstable so isolated to scattered thunderstorms again today over most of the inland areas, with the highest potential in the lower Yukon Delta, the upper Kuskokwim valley, and the middle Yukon Valley from Galena south. Winds generally light and variable. Temperatures generally in the 70s in the inland areas, and the 60s along the coast this afternoon. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...Some isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers to the west and south of Fairbanks today with a slight chance of them making it into the middle Tanana valley this afternoon and evening. On Saturday they will be mainly south of Fairbanks over the alaska range. Generally light winds. Temperatures in the 70s to mid 80s across most of the interior today and Saturday with overnight lows in the 50s. && .COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...No concerns at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER...Drying across the eastern interior and upper Tanana valley will continue today. Still pretty wet out west so not much concern there. Fairly active thunderstorm activity in the lower and middle Yukon so will need to keep a close watch out there. Isolated thunderstorm activity in the Alaska range and the upper Tanana valley as well. Relative Humidity recovery overnight will be poor in the eastern interior. && .HYDROLOGY...No concerns at this time. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SDB JUN 16  FXAK69 PAFG 251151 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 351 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...Good run to run continuity. They initialized well against the 25/06Z surface analysis. No Canadian model to work with today. There is better agreement on the strength of the shortwaves moving across the arctic through the weekend. Also a little better agreement on the easterly wave coming in the back door on Sunday. Will go with a blend of the models, but lean toward the NAM for precipitation coverage as GFS and ECMWF have it spread a bit thick across the interior. ALOFT...At 500 HPA...a closed 535 dam low over 80n 150w and the associated shortwave that extends south over Nuiqsut will continue to move east with the shortwave over Banks Island by Sunday morning. A 563 dam high over the central Brooks range will move over the eastern Brooks range by Sunday morning, then be absorbed into ridging over the Yukon Territory that then rotates over the Northwest Territories by Sunday evening. A 548 dam low over the northeast Pacific will wobble around and move over 50n 150w by Monday morning then slowly drift northeast. A 582 mb high in the western Bering Sea will drift southeast over Atka by Sunday morning with ridging extending northeast over the upper Koyukuk valley. A col will develop over the interior by Sunday evening with the axis roughly over the Alaska range. A shortwave will spin around the low in the northeast Pacific and move over the area southeast of Delta Junction by Sunday afternoon. A 540 dam low will move just north of Wrangel Island Saturday evening with a shortwave extending south over the Gulf of Anadyr, and continues east to be 200 nm north of Wainwright by Sunday morning with the shortwave extending south over Unalakleet, and northeast to 300 nm north of Barrow by Sunday night with the shortwave extending south over McGrath. Models indicate enhancement of the shortwave on Monday as it remains stationary, then it moves northeast with ridging rebuilding across the interior Tuesday night. AT 850 HPA...Pretty warm under the thermal trough today and tomorrow with temperatures in the 10 to 15 Celsius range over most of the interior. Cooling trend will bring them down to 5 to 10 degrees Celsius Monday and Tuesday with the zero isotherm moving over the Arctic coast and plain. SURFACE...Thermal trough lies across the interior. A 1015 mb high over the northwest coast will break off the ridge over the west coast and move east across the arctic today to be over MacKenzie Bay by early Sunday morning. Weak ridging will persist over southeast Alaska and Prince William sound. A 1004 mb low will meander around in the northeast Pacific then dissipate mid week. A weather front will move over the northwest coast and continue east across the arctic through Sunday evening then move north of the coast. A 1017 mb high will move over the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait Sunday morning, then east across the arctic plain on Monday. Weak ridging will persist over the eastern Bering Sea through the weekend. A weak easterly wave with a 1008 mb low will move over the Fortymile country early Sunday morning. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...Some dense fog and low stratus to the west of Deadhorse this morning will work its way east. Expect the really low conditions to move east of Nuiqsut later today as everything moves in advance of the bubble high with the onshore flow. GOES MVFR/IFR Probability product at 25/0945Z indicates MVFR stratus over the northwest coast to Nuiqsut which lines up with the current observations. Cooling temperatures behind the bubble high as a weather front will move over the northwest coast late this evening and work its way across the arctic through Sunday evening. A 1015 mb high will build in from the west behind the front. Winds northwest today becoming southeast behind the high. wind speeds 5 to 15 mph today increasing a bit on Sunday to 10 to 20 mph in the coastal areas. Showers over the eastern Brooks range Sunday and Monday as upslope conditions will prevail. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...Weak high pressure will be the general rule over the area through the weekend. A weather front will brush the Chukchi Sea coast tonight, but will not bring much more than some clouds to the area. Winds will generally be onshore from the west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph along the coast with light winds inland. Some isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms and showers in the upper Kuskokwim valley and vicinity, and south of Galena in the middle Yukon valley, associated with the thermal trough that is over the area. Temperatures cooling a bit starting tonight. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...Some isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers through the day, generally south of Fairbanks along the Alaska range. Winds generally light. Temperatures in the 70s to mid 80s again today with a cooling slight trend starting tonight. Sunday will be a bit more active with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms as a easterly wave swings into the area and spreads them west and north to the Yukon river. && .COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...No concerns at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER...Drying over the interior under the thermal trough. No significant winds expected through Monday. Some isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms and showers in the upper Kuskokwim valley and vicinity, and south of Galena in the middle Yukon valley, and south of Fairbanks along the Alaska range. Increased shower activity with the easterly wave moving into the Fortymile country on Sunday. && .HYDROLOGY...No concerns at this time. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SDB JUN 16  FXAK69 PAFG 131154 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 354 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016 .DISCUSSION... Models...Run to run continuity continues to be very good. very good agreement out to around 72 hours. Showery regime will remain over the area with slightly higher probabilities west of Fairbanks today. There continue to be large areas of negative Lifted Index between the Alaska and Brooks ranges during the afternoons through the weekend. Cape values remain unimpressive. Will use a blend of the current solutions to maintain continuity in the short term forecast. Aloft...at 500 HPA...543 dam low over the Pribilof Islands yesterday has moved over Cold Bay by Saturday morning at 540 dam this morning and will continue east to just south of Kodiak Island by Sunday morning at 541 dam. A weak ridge over the nearshore waters has shifted south over the brooks range as the 509 dam low over the north pole has shifted south a bit and a shortwave is swinging southeast around the low and will be over the dateline by Sunday morning, and over the Chukchi Sea early Monday. The long wave trough over the state will bring weak southerly flow over the eastern interior with 554 dam heights extending west over Fairbanks. Weak ridging over the Bering Strait will push 554 dam heights east to the middle Yukon valley with weak northerly flow over the coast. Surface...Troughy pattern will persist south of the Brooks range as the extratropical remnants of former Typhoon Omais move to just south of Kodiak Island by Sunday morning. Flow around the low will continue to enhanced moisture and usher warmer air into the area. This will continue to enhance potential for showers south of the Brooks range. Weak ridging will persist over the nearshore arctic waters through early next week as surface ridging builds east out of Chukotka across the area. A weather front will move to the western Arctic Sunday and approach the northwest coast Monday impacting the nearshore and offshore waters with some strong winds. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Fog has returned to the coastal areas, mainly from Barrow east, and expect it will trend today much like it did yesterday occasionally reducing visibility to one half mile or less through the morning hours. Ten some improvement during the afternoon before it comes back late tonight. No breaks in the low stratus ceilings unless your at least 10 miles inland then you can expect some breaks in the afternoon. GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR Probability Product at 13/0900Z indicating large areas of IFR conditions, and quite a bit of LIFR conditions east of Barrow along the coast with the highest concentration around Prudhoe Bay. This is confirmed by the observations in the area. Winds in the short term continue to generally be easterly at 10 to 20 mph along the coast with lighter winds inland. Temperatures will be in the 30s to 50s along the coast and warmer inland with significant breaks in the clouds. West Coast and Western Interior...A few thunderstorms around the area yesterday and today looks to be much more of the same. Not anticipating any significant increase in activity over yesterday as convective indices are very similar with the only difference being a slightly deeper trough over the area. Winds generally northwest to north over the coastal areas at 10 to 20 mph with lighter variable winds inland. Temperatures will continue on the warm side today with a slight cooling trend on the coast as the northerly flow holds temperatures down a bit. Central and Eastern Interior...Warm and muggy. With the trough being a bit deeper over the interior areas north of Fairbanks may see a few more showers and some Thunderstorm activity today. From Fairbanks south just isolated showers, but near the range things should remain dry with downslope winds continuing today. Gap winds not as strong as yesterday but they will persist. South winds near the range to 25 mph, with generally light winds north of the Tanana river. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .Fire Weather...Expect thunderstorm activity to remain low with a smattering of strikes across the forecast area. No area look more favorable at this time. Winds generally light except for the gap winds near the Alaska range to 25 mph. Relative humidity values will remain above 30 percent during the day with excellent overnight recovery. && .HYDROLOGY...No change as rivers continue to slowly fall, and with only isolated to scattered showers expected that trend will continue. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SDB AUG 16  FXAK69 PAFG 141101 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 301 AM AKDT SUN AUG 14 2016 .DISCUSSION... Models...Remain in very good agreement in the short term and good agreement into the midrange. Run to run continuity continues to be very good. Showery regime persists over the area with slightly higher probabilities west and north of Fairbanks today. There continue to be large areas of negative Lifted Index between the Alaska and Brooks ranges during the afternoons through Monday. CAPE values remain unimpressive over most of the area, but there are a couple areas in zone 224 and along the border between zone 216 and zone 227 today with values near 400 J/kg. Will lean a bit more toward the NAM for precipitation coverage this cycle but blend with the current database forecast to maintain continuity. Aloft...at 500 HPA...541 dam low just south of Kodiak Island will move northeast into the northern Gulf of Alaska by Monday morning as it weakens to 551 dam. A weak ridge lies over the Brooks Range. The shortwave mentioned yesterday has moved over the western Arctic and Chukchi Sea this morning and a 550 dam low will develop in the base of the trough over the Bering Strait by Monday morning and move south. The trough will move northeast across the Arctic moving over Barrow Monday afternoon and over Canadian waters by Tuesday morning. A col will develop over the interior Monday and persist into Wednesday before ridging builds northwest over the area. Weak southerly flow will continue over the southeast interior and Fortymile Country with 554 dam heights extending west over Fairbanks. Weak ridging over the Bering Strait continues to push 554 dam heights east to the middle Yukon valley with weak northerly flow over the coast. Surface...Trough lies from Bristol Bay to Old Crow Yukon across the state and expect that to continue through most of the next week. Weak high pressure will persist over the Arctic nearshore and offshore waters with a 1016 mb high developing over Barrow by Tuesday afternoon. A weak front will move east across the high Arctic today and tonight. A stronger weather front will move to the western Arctic and Chukchi Sea Monday morning and brush over the northwest coast Monday night as it drags east and north in zonal flow. Ridging over the Gulf of Alaska will push north into the interior Tuesday as the trough over the state weakens. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Fog continues to be the biggest forecast challenge as it moves in and out with visibility less than one mile in several locations along the coast at times during the day. Visibility improved greatly during the day Saturday and was unrestricted in most places for a few hours. Stratus has not changed much over the coastal areas through and see no reason for any significant change to that until at least Tuesday as the front drags near the area. No breaks in the low stratus ceilings unless your at least 10 miles inland then you can expect some breaks in the afternoon. GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR Probability Product at 14/0930Z indicating large areas of IFR conditions, and quite a bit of LIFR conditions east of Barrow along the coast with the highest concentration remaining around Prudhoe Bay. This is confirmed by the observations in the area. Winds in the short term continue to generally be easterly at 10 to 20 mph along the coast with lighter winds inland. Winds will turn to the northwest as the surface high pressure ridge builds east over the area tonight into Tuesday. Temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s along the coast, warmer inland with significant breaks in the clouds. West Coast and Western Interior...A few thunderstorms, mainly south of Galena yesterday, and today looks to be much more of the same with a good chance south of Kaltag. Some Isolated showers for the remainder of the area today. Winds northwest to north over the coastal areas at 10 to 30 mph with lighter variable winds inland. Strongest winds will be near the Bering Strait. A slight cooling trend as the northerly flow holds temperatures down a bit. Central and Eastern Interior...Another warm day, but not as warm as Saturday. High in many areas reaching the mid 70s. Muggy conditions continue as dewpoints remain high. The trough remains across the interior so isolated Thunderstorms and shower could pop up just about anywhere and anytime with highest potential in the afternoon hours. Thunderstorms may contain small hail and produce gusty winds. Winds generally light and variable, except near the Alaska range south winds at 5 to 15 mph. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .Fire Weather...More isolated thunderstorm activity today, with no areas of significant lightning activity expected. Winds generally light and variable. Relative humidity values remaining above 30 percent during the day with excellent overnight recoveries. && .HYDROLOGY...Expect only Isolated thunderstorm activity so no concentrated areas of rainfall in the interior. Rivers continue to slowly fall and that trend will continue through next week. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220. && $$ SDB AUG 16  FXAK69 PAFG 151149 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 349 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016 .DISCUSSION... Models...No significant changes in the solutions in the short term. Showery regime will persist over the area with slightly higher probabilities west and north of Fairbanks again today. Large areas of negative Lifted Index between the Alaska and Brooks ranges during the afternoon today with some decrease in the coverage Tuesday. CAPE values remain unimpressive over most of the area, but they are slightly higher to the west and north of the tanana valley. Leaning a bit more toward the NAM solution for precipitation coverage this cycle but blend with the current database forecast to maintain continuity. Aloft...at 500 HPA...544 dam low weakens to 555 dam as it moves from just south of Kodiak Island to the northern Gulf of Alaska and dissipates over Prince William Sound tonight. A col has developed over the interior and will persist into Wednesday before ridging builds northwest over the area. A 505 dam low over the North Pole will remain stationary as it spins shortwaves east across the arctic. a 553 dam low will develop over the bering strait this morning and move south over the Pribilof Islands by Tuesday morning, then merge with a 545 dam low over the north Pacific. Ridging over the northwest Pacific will push north over the eastern interior Tuesday night and Wednesday with 573 dam heights as far west as Fairbanks. Surface...Trough persists over the state from Bristol Bay to Old Crow Yukon but has weakened a bit and will continue to through Tuesday. 1000 mb low has moved into the Gulf of Alaska and will continue to weaken before dissipating by Tuesday morning. The thermal trough will persist over the upper Yukon Valley. A 1009 mb High will develop over Prudhoe Bay as the surface ridge builds east across the arctic. A weather front will move to the northwest coast this morning then drag northeast into the arctic. Ridging over the Gulf of Alaska will push north over the southeast interior Tuesday night. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Fog remains the biggest forecast challenge as it moves in and out. Visibility improved greatly during the day Sunday and was unrestricted in most places for a few hours. Stratus has not changed much over the coastal areas though and see no reason for any significant change except to lift a little during the day. Inland areas will see some breaks in the clouds with warmer temperatures. GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR Probability Product at 15/1030Z indicating large areas of IFR conditions, not a lot of LIFR that has shown up the past few days. Winds in the short term continue to generally be easterly at 10 to 20 mph along the coast with lighter winds inland. Winds will be mainly northwest at 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s along the coast. West Coast and Western Interior...A few thunderstorms, mainly south and east of Galena again today. Winds northwest to north over the coastal areas at 10 to 30 mph with lighter variable winds inland. Strongest winds will be near the Bering Strait. Slightly cooler with northerly flow. Central and Eastern Interior...Another warm day. Highs in many areas reaching the mid 70s. Muggy conditions continue as dewpoints remain high. Some isolated thunderstorms and showers, but mainly north of the Tanana valley. Winds generally light and variable, except near the Alaska range south winds gusting to 20 to 40 mph this morning and tapering down this afternoon. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .Fire Weather...Isolated thunderstorm activity today, with no areas of significant lightning activity expected. Winds generally light and variable except near the Alaska range passes. Relative humidity values remaining above 30 percent during the day with excellent overnight recoveries. && .HYDROLOGY...Rivers continue to slowly fall and that trend will continue through the week. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220. && $$ SDB AUG 16  FXAK69 PAFG 132112 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 112 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016 .DISCUSSION... Models...Run to run continuity remains good. Some adjustment on the movement of the upper level low as it fills and moves east a little faster across the state. Still some divergence in the extended periods, especially over the arctic, but blending the models will leave a trough over the area. Timing of the shortwaves moving around trough will be questionable, but the general weather pattern will not be affected over most of the area. Leaning toward the NAM precipitation solution again today since it has had a better handle on the system over the last few periods. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Primary low that was over Norton Sound yesterday has moved east over Beaver at 538 dam and will continue east over the Canadian yukon and dissipate tonight. An east to west trough over the arctic will move south over the northwest coast tonight and push south to lie from Deadhorse to Wales by late Wednesday. Ridging will build over the southeast mainland...mainly south and east of the Yukon River, then breaks down and retreats southeast as a longwave trough associated with a 537 dam low over the arctic develops over the west coast. The longwave trough will move slowly east across the state through the weekend. At 850 hpa...Zero isotherm lies from Old Crow Yukon to Fairbanks to Sleetmute to St Lawrence Island today. To the east it will start slowly moving back to the north and will lie from Old Crow to Ruby to Mekoryok by Thursday morning, and Old Crow to Huslia to Marshall and south by Saturday morning. Surface...Trough and stationary front will persist east to west across the interior to the west coast, but weaken as ridging pushes north over the Tanana Valley. Weak lows are still developing along the front and will spread occasional showers to most of the interior. Cloudy conditions will persist through the week, but a few breaks will occur. The next system, a 978 mb low near Shemya will move to Adak by Wednesday morning and Dutch harbor by Thursday morning with the associated weather front spreading more showers to the forecast area from the brooks range south. Showery conditions will persist through the weekend. As the system advances toward the area the pressure gradient will increase and gap winds through the Alaska range will gust into the 40 mph range. A low pressure system in the high arctic has the potential to bring the first significant snow to the arctic coast starting Friday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Same issue today with the SPORT NPP VIIRS 24 hour Microphysics product at 13/1715Z as the high clouds obscure lower clouds. The GOES probability product at 13/1830Z is indicating MVFR conditions over most of the arctic with some higher clouds just offshore and more MVFR conditions well offshore with the a trough progressing toward the coast. Observation confirm it is mainly low cloud coverage. Heavy Snow Warning remains in effect through Wednesday morning, it looks like Toolik Lake and Anaktuvuk Pass have had about 2 inches of snow so far. Temperatures will remain on the cool side with the freezing level at or near the surface over most of the area. The next significant system which will approach the coast on Friday could bring the first significant snow to the arctic coastal areas Friday night and Saturday. temperatures will continue to slowly fall. As the low settles in near Huslia expect heavier precipitation with the upslope component and a good southerly feed of moisture into the area. East winds over most of the area as the low settles in and weak ridging continues to build east over the offshore waters. West Coast and Western Interior...Showers tapering off in the interior with some clearing and breaks developing overnight. GOES IR loop indicates quite a bit of stratus over the west coast so the weak ridging over the eastern Bering Sea is pretty dirty. The GOES MVFR/IFR probability product at 13/1830Z indicating high probability of MVFR conditions over most of the area without any significant open areas. Winds will swing around from northerly to easterly as the next system moves to Bristol Bay by tomorrow and spreads rain to the lower Yukon Delta by Late Wednesday evening. Rain will continue to spread north and east as the front progresses north. The Kotzebue sound region will be spared for the most part from the precipitation as a weak ridge develops over the area between systems. Relatively strong winds will persist over the Chukchi Sea and through the Bering Strait as ridging persists over the Chukotsk Peninsula. Cooler temperatures will prevail and some of the rain may mix with snow during the overnight hours starting Thursday. Central and Eastern Interior...Showers will taper off through the night as the system weakens a bit and the primary low along the front moves to the east and dissipates over the Yukon Territory. Very good potential for dense fog and low stratus ceilings tonight and Wednesday morning are likely north and west of Delta Junction. Winds generally light from the southwest will swing around to east and northeast for Wednesday. Some stronger south winds through the Alaska Range on Wednesday night as the next system moves north into the interior and gap winds kick up and gust to around 45 mph. Highs across the interior will be in the lower 40s with lows in the 30s to the south of the Yukon River and 20s to the north. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .Hydrology...Some rises of around a foot in the rivers draining out of the Brooks range, but they remain well below flood levels. Expect them to continue to rise as the rains of the last couple days make their way into the mainstem rivers. Rivers draining out of the Alaska range have also seen some rises but do not foresee any issues there. Not expecting any significant jumps in the river levels the remainder of the week. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning FOR AKZ205-AKZ206. Winter Weather Advisory FOR AKZ217-AKZ218. Small Craft Advisory FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225. Gale Warning FOR PKZ210. && $$ sdb Sep 16  FXAK69 PAFG 151155 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 255 AM AKST Tue Nov 15 2016 .DISCUSSION... Models...So big changes since yesterday in the upper level situation as the models are developing a low aloft over Huslia by this evening and bringing it over the south central interior by Wednesday night as a closed 536 dam low. This in turn will impact the precipitation forecasts from the models which have been flopping around on coverage and amounts most of the time during the last couple months. The major features around the low have not changed from what previous solutions over the weekend where producing. Models also continue to struggle with temperatures over the forecast area. Going to go with an equal blend for the short term as that should help capture the precipitation for most of the area, but may over forecast it in a few areas. Will continue to lean toward the GFS for the midrange and a blend of the Ensemble means for the extended periods. Aloft...At 500 hpa...The low near Wrangel Island yesterday is 400 nm west of Wrangel island at 495 dam with a trough extending over Shishmaref to King Salmon, the low that was near Kodiak is 300 nm southeast of Kodiak City at 525 dam, and the closed high has moved over Nuiqsut at 531 dam, and a 530 dam high has developed over the Copper River Basin. This afternoon a 528 dam low will develop over Huslia, then moves southeast over Lake Minchumina by Wednesday afternoon at 534 dam then drops south over Upper Cook Inlet by Thursday morning at 537 dam. A ridge will build north over the west coast tonight behind the low with 540 dam heights reaching north over Norton Sound. The high over the Copper River Basin will build to 540 dam and builds north over the AlCan border. Ridging will continue to build over the west coast through Thursday, and a 548 dam high center will develop over the northwest coast early Friday. At 850 hpa...Temperatures in the interior will continue to cool through midweek, while temperatures over the west coast will start a slow warmup as the ridge build over the coast. Over the Fairbanks area temperatures will fall to around 14 below celsius by Wednesday then start to slowly warm. Surface...Pretty messy pattern over the state with no dominant features. a weak trough lies over the western interior and weak troughing extends east in the Yukon Flats. The stacked low over the north Pacific with a 988 mb center at the surface will drift southeast as it slowly fills, and will be over the Queen Charlotte Islands by Wednesday morning at 1007 mb. A 1027 mb high will develop over the Kuskokwim Delta today with ridging extending east over the south slopes of the Alaska Range. The high will move into the Middle Yukon Valley by Wednesday morning with ridging extending east into the upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country. Weak troughing over the Tanana Valley today will slowly move north to the south slopes of the Brooks Range by Wednesday morning. The ridging will continue to expand as high pressure builds to 1034 mb with centers over the middle Tanana Valley and the middle Yukon Valley. By Thursday morning a 1040 mb center will be over the upper Yukon Flats. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus and areas of fog today, with some improving conditions from Barrow west as the flow turns offshore tonight and winds pick up to around 20 mph. For today the for and stratus will be accompanied by flurries in most areas and some light snow over the northwest coast and western Brooks Range. GOES MVFR/IFR Probability products at 15/1015Z indicate extensive areas of low stratus from Wainwright east, and observations confirm this. Temperatures slowly cooling today, then warming from the west as ridging build over the northwest coast. West Coast and Western Interior...Trough over the western interior will produce some light snow with additional snow amounts today up to 3 inches. Snow tapering off through the day as it slowly moves east. High pressure building over the Kuskokwim Delta and a broad area of low pressure moving into the Bering Sea will produce some strong winds over the eastern Bering Sea and west coast. Temperatures cool a bit today, then start a slow warm up as the flow turns from the south. Central and Eastern Interior...Some patchy dense fog around the Tanana Valley this morning so have issue a dense fog advisory through noon. Spotty snow around the interior will bring some snow to most areas, and most of those areas will be getting around an inch of accumulation today. Temperatures will continue to cool through the week. Clearing skies late Wednesday and Thursday will allow for good radiational cooling and that will lead to more seasonal temperatures. Winds generally light and variable. Some gusty north winds developing in the Alaska Range passes Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds over the interior. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory for AKZ222. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ215. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220. && $$ SDB NOV 16  FXAK69 PAFG 222150 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1250 PM AKST Tue Nov 22 2016 .DISCUSSION... Models...Over northern Alaska and the arctic the solution remain similar with good run to run continuity, to the south of the Alaska Range and over the Bering Sea they diverge quite a bit beyond 102 hours and are a bit jumpy from run to run. Most active area during the short term will be the eastern arctic coast. Initialized well against the 22/18Z surface analysis. Will lean on a blend for the short term forecast, making only minor adjustments to the forecast database for the near term. Aloft...At 500 hpa...A 534 dam high near 77N 180 in the arctic with ridging extending south to a 530 dam high center over the central interior. A 516 dam low over the Bering Strait will merge with a low over Siberia. A 503 dam low will move over the west coast of Banks Island this evening with a shortwave moving over the eastern arctic coast tonight. A 519 dam low will develop over the Seward Peninsula tonight and over Kotzebue Sound by Wednesday morning, then moves east and merges with the low over Banks Island. This will cutoff the 530 dam high over the interior and the high center will move southwest over Nunivak Island by Wednesday afternoon, then merge with a ridge over the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Thursday evening. A shortwave will spin around the low near Banks Island to be over the eastern arctic coast early Wednesday morning, and over the Brooks Range by Thursday morning. A shortwave created by the merging of the low that was over Kotzebue Sound will move to lie from over Fairbanks to Upper Cook Inlet early Thursday morning, and will move east over the AlCan border by Thursday afternoon. At 850 hpa...A general cooling trend across the forecast area with the 20 below celsius isotherm moving over the eastern arctic coast Wednesday morning and pushing south to Brooks Range Wednesday afternoon, and by Thursday afternoon it will lie from Eagle to Allakaket to Point Lay. The cold air will remain over the area through Friday then gets pushed slowly back to the north to the Brooks Range by Sunday afternoon. Models are indicating a much stronger surge of cold air pushing south to the Alaska range next week. Surface...General cyclonic pattern continues over the mainland with ridging pushing south over the arctic plain from a 1032 mb high that will be near 79N 170W Wednesday morning. A weak trough over the eastern arctic coast persists. A 1010mb low near Banks Island will spin a cold front to the eastern arctic coast Wednesday morning, and to the Brooks Range Wednesday evening. A weak leeside trough remains in place north of the Alaska Range in the vicinity of Delta Junction over the Tanana Flats. The Tanana Jet remains in place and winds will diminish Wednesday as the east to west gradient breaks down. Winds over the upper Yukon will diminish this evening as the gradient over that area relaxes. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Status quo with the stratus. Ridging persists offshore and pushes to the Brooks Range, but that will not change much as far as the stratus goes. The cold front moving to the eastern arctic coast overnight is not looking to have much impact, possibly better chance for some snow, but the system does not appear to be bringing much wind with the cold air so blowing snow should not be an issue. A general cooling trend as that cold air starts impacting the eastern arctic coast initially with cold spreading south and west the remainder of the week. Northeast winds will swing around to west and northwest to the east of Barrow as the front moves in. NPP-VIIRS SPoRT Nighttime Microphysics product at 22/1841Z shows a solid stratus deck east of Point Lay over the coast and plains. GOES MVFR/IFR probability product at 22/1845Z indicates mainly MVFR conditions with some IFR conditions east and south of Nuiqsut over the coast and plains. West Coast and Western Interior...Some patches of stratus and high clouds in the area associated with and upper level trough over the area. Light snow being reported with the low stratus in several areas. Expect the stratus to dissipate in place overnight in most areas. High clouds will clear slowly through the evening. No significant winds, but they will pick up a bit over the lower Yukon Delta and St Lawrence Island with gusts to around 25 mph as the trough in the central Bering Sea slides east a bit overnight. Some Marine stratus over the Bering Strait and St Lawrence Island will persist with occasional flurries. Temperatures steady, but cooling as we approach the weekend. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear conditions, light winds, temperatures steady through Wednesday then cooling through the weekend. Still have some stratus hanging around in the upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile country with some flurries, and do not expect that to dissipate next 24 hours. Also some patchy stratus in the upper Yukon Flats around stevens village that will persist. Coldest temperatures this morning in the upper Yukon were around 35 below, expect more of the same tonight. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB NOV 16  FXAK69 PAFG 072201 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 101 PM AKST Sat Jan 7 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...performance has been pretty good the last couple weeks, especially in the short term. For the extended periods they have been good with the major features. This cycle they are handling the blocking ridge well as the omega block sets up and the ridge aloft breaks off from the ridge over the Pacific tonight. Will go with a blend of the current model runs and the current forecast database to develop the short term forecast. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Big blocking ridge over the west coast with a 560 dam center that will drift over the lower Yukon Delta by Sunday morning as the ridge is cut off from the Pacific ridge. A 516 dam low will persist off the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest Coast. A 499 dam closed low near Kamchatka will move north and weaken to a shortwave as it moves into Siberia and then pushes over the top of the ridge Tuesday night. The ridge over the Yukon Delta will move over Kotzebue Sound late Sunday, then drifts south to the upper Kuskokwim Valley by Monday evening. The high center will be over Kodiak Island by late Tuesday at 550 dam. A major shortwave will move to the western Chukchi Sea and Chukotsk Peninsula late Tuesday and will impact the west coast starting Wednesday. At 850 hpa...A warming trend through Tuesday morning as the ridge ushers in some slightly warmer air. Cooling trend starting Tuesday with a significant cool off Thursday as the 20 below isotherm moves south and west of the forecast area. Surface...1040 mb high will persist over mainland Alaska into early next week. A decaying weather front will move north over the western Bering Sea. A 1006 mb low in the Beaufort Sea will move east across Banks Island tonight. A 987 mb low over the Siberian arctic will move east along 80N, with a front moving east across the high arctic, to near 130W then dive south into Canada. A 1005 mb low will develop over Siberia Monday and move north into the Siberian arctic Monday night, then moves to 400 nm north of Point Barrow by Tuesday afternoon with a cold front extending southwest to the northwest coast and Chukchi Sea. The low will move east and the front will lie from MacKenzie Bay to Bettles to the Seward Peninsula by Wednesday morning, then continues to push south and east through Friday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...For the short term improving conditions as the winds diminish. Expect snow to continue on and off without significant accumulation. GOES MVFR Probability product at 07/19Z shows quite a bit of MVFR conditions, so not expecting much change in the low ceilings over the area, but visibility will improve. A bit warmer Sunday, then a slow cooling trend. West Coast and Western Interior...Relatively quiet compared to the last couple weeks. Some spotty areas of rain this evening as the ridge aloft pulls some warmer air north over St Lawrence Island and possibly the lower Yukon Delta. Some snow showers over the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea tonight and Sunday but nothing significant. Winds diminishing out west as well so most areas with have winds less than 15 mph. Central and Eastern Interior...With ridge aloft to the west it will be pretty quiet. A few clouds moved through this morning, but it will be mostly clear through Monday. A slow warming trend through mid week. A chance of snow Wednesday night and Thursday, then clearing with much colder temperatures late in the week. Winds generally light. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Blizzard Warning for AKZ204. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203. Gale Warning for PKZ225-PKZ245. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ240. && $$ SDB JAN 17  FXAK69 PAFG 092152 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1252 PM AKST Mon Jan 9 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...Good run to run continuity continues for the short term. Timing for bringing in the cold air over the northwest coast is still a little unsettled with the NAM coming in about 6 hours faster. Will lean on the current forecast database this forecast cycle, making only minor adjustments. Will transition to a blend of the models and current database for the midrange and extended periods of the forecasts. Aloft...At 500 hpa...560 dam center has moved a bit south to be over the middle Yukon Valley, and will move over the Shelikof Strait by Tuesday afternoon. The ridge then starts flattening out with ridging extending east to the Queen Charlotte Islands and northwest to the northern Kamchatka peninsula early Wednesday morning. A trough over eastern Siberia will move into the ridge and lie over the eastern Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait by Tuesday evening, and from Nuiqsut to Mcgrath by Wednesday morning, then exits the state to the east by late Wednesday. A closed 506 dam low will develop over northern Siberia Tuesday morning and move to 75N 180 by early Wednesday morning as it fills, the associated trough will move across the Chukchi Sea Wednesday, and will lie over the middle Yukon Valley late Wednesday. A Broad trough will develop over the state as a series of shortwaves spins around a 503 dam low anchored over the Beaufort Sea. The ridging will be pushed west and south by Thursday afternoon. A strong shortwave will move over the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait Thursday as a 498 dam low develops over the Central interior. The low will move southwest over the lower Yukon Delta by Sunday morning. At 850 hpa...A slight warming trend continues through tomorrow morning. Cooling trend starting Tuesday with a significant cool off Thursday as the 20 below isotherm moves south of the forecast area. A pool of 30 below celsius temperatures will move over the eastern arctic coast and plains Friday through the weekend. Surface...1030 mb high remains over most of mainland Alaska and the eastern Bering Sea. A 983 mb low near 80N 130W will move southeast with the trailing cold front impacting the eastern arctic coast this evening. A 1006 mb low over the Siberian arctic with a weak warm front extending to the southeast will move to 400 nm northwest of Point Barrow by Tuesday morning, and to 400 nm north of Point Barrow by late Tuesday with a the warm front extending southeast to MacKenzie Bay and the cold front extending southwest along the northwest arctic coast. The low will move to the Beaufort Sea by Wednesday morning with the cold front lying from Barter Island to Tanana to Marshall, then south and east of the forecast area. Ridging will build in behind the front from a 1048 mb high over Siberia and persist into next week. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...GOES MVFR Probability product indicating a lot of stratus over the area today. May see a few breaks tonight, but nothing extensive. Cloud bases up a bit Tuesday. Winds fairly steady at 10 to 20 mph next couple days from the southwest to west. conditions improving this evening on the eastern arctic coast. Cooling trend will continue through the weekend with some of the coldest temperatures of the season expected starting Sunday into next week. West Coast and Western Interior...A few clouds moving through, otherwise pretty quiet. Generally light offshore flow continues along the coast with light winds inland. Next significant precipitation will move into the area from the north Wednesday as a cold front moves southeast across the area. The cold front will bring some of the coldest temperatures of the season in for the weekend into next week. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear conditions will continue. A few patches of clouds may move through the area, but nothing significant. Winds generally light across the area. Ridge aloft remains to the west and this will bring in some slightly warmer air aloft. Expect a few clouds to move through the area, but nothing significant through Tuesday. There continues to be a chance of snow Wednesday night and Thursday across the interior. Winds will generally be light. Temperatures slightly warmer through midweek then cooling through the weekend with much colder temperatures for the weekend and next week. && Extended Forecast Days 4 to 7...Cold air starts pooling up over the arctic coast and plains late this week and will remain in place well into next week. The cold air starts filtering into the eastern and central interior Saturday. By Monday around Fairbanks expect lows to drop to 35 to 45 below with highs around 20 below, and it looks to stay that way through much of next week. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Slight potential for Freezing Spray on the north facing coasts of St lawrence Island later this week, but at this time winds do not appear to be strong enough. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ204. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245. && $$ SDB JAN 17  FXAK69 PAFG 131230 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 330 AM AKST Mon Feb 13 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...Initialized well against the 13/06Z surface analysis. Good agreement on position and strength of major features across the area of concern. They remain in good agreement into the midrange before diverging significantly. Will use an equal blend for the near term today. Temperatures will be difficult since models will not produce a good trend, so will need to manually force them. Aloft...At 500 hpa...490 dam low that drifted south over the west coast is over Bristol Bay. The low will drift over Sand Point by Tuesday morning at 487 dam, then rotate back north over eastern Bristol Bay by Wednesday morning at 490 dam, then moves north over the lower Yukon Delta by Thursday morning at 498 dam, and over Norton Sound by Friday morning at 500 dam. Ridging over the west coast of North America has push in over the mainland alaska west to the middle Yukon Valley and north to the Brooks Range this morning and will persist into Tuesday morning before it weakens and slowly starts to retreat Tuesday as a shortwave pushes north over the ridge. Ridging will push back to the west over the Brooks Range behind the shortwave on Wednesday. High in the arctic a 490 dam low will spin a shortwave over the northwest and central arctic coast today, then a second shortwave will dig the trough south over the Chukchi Sea Wednesday where is stalls as the ridging builds west and slides north from the Brooks Range to the arctic coast Thursday. At 850 hpa...The zero isotherm makes an appearance over the interior and pushes north to lie from Old Crow YT to Fairbanks to Mcgrath by Tuesday morning before receding back into Canada. Surface...A 981 mb low in the high arctic will spin a warm front east over the northwest and central arctic coast today then pulls it north. Weak ridging will persist over the Brooks Range and northern Interior. A 962 mb low 200 nm southwest of Kodiak Island is spinning an occluded front over the central and eastern interior this morning and will continue to spin moisture north as it moves into Bristol Bay tonight at 966 mb. Leeside troughing has developed north of the Alaska Range and the Tanana Valley jet has set up in the Delta Junction area. A second wave sent north by the low will move over the Alaska range on Tuesday morning and gap flow winds will develop in the Alaska Range. A trough will set up over the state from Bethel to Old Crow on Tuesday and persist over that area into Thursday as a broad area of cyclonic flow around the low in Bristol Bay develops over the state and adjacent waters. Leeside troughing will develop north of the Brooks Range Tuesday over the arctic plains and persist through Thursday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Front moving over the northwest and central arctic coast will spread some snow to the mainly the coastal areas from Barrow west today then moves offshore. The first wave moving north over the interior will move to the eastern arctic coast and eastern Brooks Range this evening with snow developing east of Nuiqsut tonight and remaining mainly east of Barrow through Thursday. Snow accumulations today will be around one inch on the northwest coast, and through Wednesday morning east of Barrow up to 6 inches will be possible with the heaviest amounts in the eastern Brooks Range. The GOES MVFR Probability product at 13/0930Z indicating quite a bit of MVFR conditions over the coastal areas west of Nuiqsut and just off shore to the east. Do not expect that will change much today, but expect lowering ceilings over the eastern Brooks Range and arctic coast tonight. Temperatures a bit warmer on the northwest coast, otherwise not much change. West Coast and Western Interior...Biggest issue will be winds increasing over the Bering Strait and St Lawrence Island. Northeast winds will increase slowly through today and tonight and peak on Tuesday with gusts near 60 mph possible. Winds will remain strong through the remainder of the week over the area. Winds will also be relatively strong in Norton Sound and the Chukchi Sea. Inland areas will see northeast winds 5 to 20 mph. Typical low stratus ceilings over the coast areas as well from 500 to 2500 feet. Expect some flurries and fog with the stratus over the Bering Strait and St Lawrence Island with reduced visibility at times. No significant snow accumulation is expected. In the lower Yukon Delta snow is developing and will spread northeast as the trough sets up. Accumulations of 2 to 5 inches can be expected through Wednesday morning in the middle Yukon Valley and lower Yukon Delta. Temperatures will be warmer in the inland areas with not much change in the coastal areas. Central and Eastern Interior...Relatively cloudy the next couple days as the low sends waves north over the interior. Slight chance of some freezing sprinkles around Fairbanks with the second wave this afternoon and again on Tuesday afternoon but currently looks like flurries. Not expecting any accumulating freezing rain anywhere. There is a slightly better chance of freezing rain in the Alaska Range and along the leeside of the range south of Fairbanks, but expect the models are overdoing the precipitation and it will be chinooked out. Snow will develop mainly to the north and west of Fairbanks as a trough sets up between Bethel and Old Crow YT. Snowfall amounts of will range from less than half and inch up to 8 inches through Wednesday morning The heaviest snowfall will be in an areas between Livengood and Bettles and from Tanana to Old Crow YT. Strong winds in and around Delta Junction as the Tanana Valley jet has set up with the leeside trough and low over the Tanana Flats, and ridging to the east. Gap flow winds developing in the eastern Alaska Range Tuesday during the day with gusts to 55 mph possible south of Delta Junction. Temperatures are on the rise and will continue to warm with temperatures slightly warmer each day through midweek. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ245. && $$ SDB FEB 17  FXAK69 PAFG 141259 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 359 AM AKST Tue Feb 14 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...Good run to run continuity the last couple days. They initialized well against the 14/06Z surface analysis. Good agreement on position and only a millibar or two difference on the central pressures. There is better agreement today into the midrange than there was yesterday but they still diverge quite a bit in the extended periods. Will lean on an equal blend of the 00Z model runs for the near term today. Temperatures remain difficult as they will warm significantly again today so that will make the model diurnal trend almost useless, so will need to manually force them. Aloft...At 500 hpa...486 dam low is 150 nm south of Sand Point and will rotate back to the north to be over Bristol Bay by Wednesday morning at 988 mb, then moves northeast to 100 nm north of King Salmon over the Nushagak Delta by Thursday morning. By Friday morning it will merge with another low over Norton Sound with a 500 dam center and a trough extending south to a low near Dutch Harbor. The ridging over the southeast interior has shifted to the north a bit with the axis extending from over Dawson YT to Deering. The ridge will be pushed back into Canada a bit as a shortwave moves up the western flank of the ridge over the state today. The shortwave is over the gulf coast this morning and will lie from Togiak to McGrath to Fairbanks to Dawson this afternoon, and from Togiak to Anvik to Bettles to Komakuk Beach YT this evening then the western portion merges with the trough over the west coast and the eastern half moves northeast into the Canadian arctic. The ridge will build back in behind the shortwave and the axis will lie from Kaltag to Delta Junction to Carmacks YT tonight, and from Elim to Fairbanks to Dawson YT by Wednesday morning. The ridge will continue to slide north and will lie from Buckland to Old Crow YT Wednesday evening. A second shortwave rotating around the low over the southwest will move to the Gulf coast Wednesday evening and move into the interior Thursday morning. At 850 hpa...No changes here, the zero isotherm makes an appearance over the interior and pushes north to lie from Old Crow YT to Fairbanks to Mcgrath this morning then recedes back into Canada tonight. Surface...Broad area of cyclonic flow around a 957 mb low 100 nm east of Kodiak City covers all but the arctic coast this morning, and will persist through the week as the low eventually moves over the southwest mainland as it slowly fills. Northeast gradient winds have developed ahead of the front over some higher elevation areas, and aligned valleys will also see some higher winds in all the interior zones and that will persist into late this evening before they diminish. Ridging extends east from a 1023 mb high in siberia over the arctic coast. Leeside troughing has developed north of the Alaska Range and the Tanana Valley jet has set up in the Delta Junction area. A warm front has moved north to lie from Dillingham to Farewell Lake to Fairbanks to Chalkyitsik this morning and will continue to move north to eventually lie northeast across the state from Bethel to Old Crow YT this evening, then slowly moves north and west as it dissipates by Wednesday evening. A second front will move into the southern interior Wednesday evening and slowly move north and west again as it weakens. The northern half will eventually move off to the northeast while the western half will merge with a trough over the western interior Thursday night. Gap flow winds in the Alaska Range today with the strongest gradient across the eastern Alaska Range east of Healy and west of the Tok Cutoff. Weak ridging north of the Brooks Range will persist through Thursday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Decaying front over the northwest coast will leave some stratus behind, and maybe a few flurries today, otherwise cooling temperatures from Point Barrow west. To the east of Point Barrow some light snow will spread west across the area slowly through the day. The GOES MVFR Probability product at 14/1015Z indicating quite a bit of MVFR conditions over the coastal areas and arctic plain. Observations indicate low ceilings have moved over much of the area, so expect them to persist with a few breaks, and they may lift a bit when the snow moves in. Temperatures cooling from Point Barrow west today as some colder air advects into the area. Slightly warmer to the east as the decaying warm front over the interior moves into the area. Winds will be all over the dial today but mainly north from Point Barrow west and southwest to the east. Wind speeds generally 10 to 20 mph with the strongest winds east of Deadhorse. West Coast and Western Interior...Biggest issue will be the winds again today, along with the potential for ground blizzard conditions in the Bering Strait and on St Lawrence Island. Will issue a Winter Storm Warning for zone 213. Winds will remain strong through the remainder of the week over the Bering Strait with relatively strong winds in Norton Sound and the Chukchi Sea. Inland areas will see northeast winds 5 to 20 mph locally gusting to 30 mph though some higher elevation will see stronger winds to near 40 mph today. Expect some flurries and fog with the stratus over the Bering Strait and St Lawrence Island with no significant accumulation. In the lower Yukon Delta snow is developing and will spread northeast as the trough sets up. Accumulations of 2 to 5 inches can be expected through Wednesday morning in the middle Yukon Valley and lower Yukon Delta with lesser amounts to the north and west as the front slowly moves into those areas as it dissipates. Central and Eastern Interior...Weather front moving across the area today with a trough setting up to the north and west of the Tanana Valley. A slight chance of some freezing rain as the front passes through the area, but no accumulation expected. The heaviest snow will be to the west and north of Fairbanks with 2 to 4 inches possible. The heaviest snow will occur in the upper Yukon Flats and the upper porcupine river. There continues to be a slightly better chance of freezing rain in the Alaska Range and along the leeside of the range south of Fairbanks, but expect the models are overdoing the precipitation and it will be chinooked out. Strong winds continue in and around Delta Junction as the Tanana Valley jet has set up with the leeside trough and low over the Tanana Flats, and ridging to the east. Gap flow winds developing in the eastern Alaska Range today will be gusting to around 65 mph so will issue a Winter Storm Warning for the winds and near blizzard conditions possible near the passes. Temperatures continue to rise today with highs around Fairbanks in the mid 30s. They will continue to be warm Wednesday but may fall a couple degrees as some cooler air filters into the area from the west. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory for AKZ223. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ213-AKZ226. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ214-AKZ218-AKZ219. Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225. && $$ SDB FEB 17  FXAK69 PAFG 111154 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 254 AM AKST Sat Mar 11 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...Overall performance has been pretty good, lacking a bit in the details, but not too bad. There has been good run to run continuity, but the pattern has been relatively benign the last couple days. Surface initialized well at 11/06Z with only minor differences in the center pressures. There is much better agreement in the midrange with the long wave trough digging south over the central and eastern interior to the Gulf of Alaska starting Sunday night. For short term will use mostly continuity making only minor changes to the temperature and wind grids. Beyond that will use a blend leaning just a bit toward the GFS since is has had a better handle lately. Aloft...At 500 hpa...566 dam center over the central Bering Sea with ridging extending east over Anvik to Tanana to Old Crow YT this morning. This is allowing a relatively fast flow around the base of the low in the high arctic with a shortwave moving east over the arctic coast today. The shortwave will strengthen a bit as it interacts with a col over the central and eastern interior as it continues to move east. Ridging will build back to the east over the interior after the shortwave moves through. Zonal flow will continue over the arctic with several shortwaves moving through the flow and east over the arctic coast through Sunday. The longwave trough will dig hard to the south Monday and the flow will become northwest with the shortwaves moving over the Chukchi Sea and Kotzebue Sound. At 850 hpa...Temperatures around -10C, but the will trend down starting Monday with a return to -20C to -25C by Tuesday night persisting through the remainder of the week. Surface...1035 mb ridge over the Eastern Bering Sea moves to the north central Bering Sea today and settles over the Gulf of Anadyr tonight and persists in the area through Monday. Ridging over the eastern interior with a 1040 mb center over the Yukon Territory will move east as troughing develops over the central and eastern interior that will persist into midweek. A 990 mb low in the northeast Pacific will move to the eastern Gulf of Alaska Sunday night and into the northern Gulf by Monday afternoon. Easterly flow will develop over the southeast interior bringing moisture into the area and good potential for overrunning snow to develop in the central and eastern interior. In the arctic a 972 mb low in the high arctic will persist spinning waves east across the arctic through the Wednesday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Active pattern will continue into the new week as low in the high arctic will spin several waves over the arctic that will bring periods of snow to the area. Some patchy freezing drizzle will occur today. Winds will be relatively tame the next few days. Winds will be west at 10 to 25 mph with just some local blowing snow. Temperatures will cool off the next few days with highs falling to around zero and lows in the teens below for much of the coastal area. Cooler temperatures can be expected inland. West Coast and Western Interior...Mostly clear in the inland areas and over the lower Yukon Delta. Stratus north of the surface ridge axis continues to impact areas and can be clearly seen on the NPP-VIIRS SPoRT 24 hr Microphysics RGB product at 11/0059, and the GOES MVFR Probability Product shows it covers and extensive area over the eastern Bering Sea, west coast, and Kotzebue Sound. There is some snow being reported with the stratus in some of the coastal areas, but only minor accumulations are expected. Also, some patchy freezing drizzle on the Bering Strait coast and Chukchi Sea coast around Point Hope. Winds on the west coast will generally be light with a few exceptions in channeled areas where winds gusting to 25 mph can be expected. Temperatures a bit warmer through Sunday, then a cooling trend. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly cloudy again today. Flurries coming to an end in most areas this morning, then another round of light snow or flurries tonight as an upper level wave moves through the area. Not expecting much accumulation. Sunday will bring some clearing skies. For Monday expecting that overrunning snow to develop, so expect light snow moving in from the east during the day Monday with a couple inches possible. Winds generally light with the exception of the Delta Junction area where winds will be gusty to around 20 mph today. Highs in the teens to lower 20s for most areas with lows zero to 10 below. Extended outlook...Models are indicating more cold air moving over the state starting next Tuesday and a return to temperatures well below normal for March. Latest model runs indicate 850 hpa temperatures around -20C, and that would produce surface temperatures of -25F to -35F, but cloudy conditions over the interior are looking more likely, so lows will likely be in -10F to -25F range. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freezing Rain Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ207- AKZ213. && $$ SDB MAR 17  FXAK69 PAFG 121109 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 309 AM AKDT Sun Mar 12 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...Very good agreement in the short term. Surface initialized well at 12/06Z. Agreement continue to improve in the midrange. There are some timing differences with the shortwaves that will be diving into the longwave trough later in the week. In the short term continuity will be maintained by only making minor changes. Will use a pretty even blend for the midrange. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging over the central and eastern interior continues to break down as the 563 dam center over the over the central Bering Sea drifts west. Ridge is now expected to drift to the south and be over Adak Wednesday morning. The longwave trough continues to develop with a 482 dam center in the high arctic and a 516 dam center over Yakutat this morning. A shortwave will dive into the trough today and help to broaden it out. The low in the arctic remains nearly stationary through Monday morning, while the low over Yakutat drifts a bit south and heights fall to 511 dam. A second shortwave will make its way over the ridge and into the trough Tuesday morning as the trough continues to expand east and west. Yet another shortwave working its way over the ridge will move to the northwest coast by Tuesday morning and dive into the trough Tuesday evening. The trough starts to fall apart Thursday as a 506 dam closed low forms south of the Gulf of Alaska, the low center in the arctic starts filling and moves off to the northeast, and ridging over Canada starts pushing to the west. At 850 hpa...Temperatures around -12C will start trending down Monday evening with the -20C isotherm moving south of all but the lower Yukon Delta by Wednesday morning. Surface...1035 mb ridge over the Gulf of Anadyr will start moving south and will be just north of Adak by Wednesday morning. Ridging persists over the arctic coast and Chukchi Sea with a 1029 mb high over the western Brooks Range. A the high in the Gulf of Anadyr moves south a 1029 mb center will develop over St Lawrence Island Tuesday morning and slide south over the eastern Bering Sea. A weather front will develop over the Siberian arctic Monday night and move to the northwest coast mid day Tuesday and falls apart as it moves east over the arctic coast. A 986 mb low will move to the southeast panhandle this evening and work north into the northern Gulf of Alaska Monday morning at 996 mb, then persist in the area through the week. Ridging over the Brooks Range will slide south over the interior Tuesday with a 1024 mb center developing over the middle Koyukuk, then sliding east over the upper Yukon Flats Wednesday morning. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...As the upper level shortwaves move across the area, expect some low clouds and flurries or light snow to accompany them. The first on is moving east across the area today and some low stratus and flurries have moved over the northwest coast. Not expecting any significant snowfall as these waves move through. Winds generally west at 10 to 20 mph, with the exception of the area east of Deadhorse where winds Tuesday will be gusting to around 40 mph as the gradient gets pinched over that area. West Coast and Western Interior...Some patchy dense fog around Kotzebue sound this morning, otherwise will be pretty quiet the next couple of days with high pressure persisting over the area. Generally northerly flow over the area will bring some cooler temperatures to the area over the next several days with the coldest temperatures Wednesday. GOES MVFR Probability Product at 12/1030Z indicates quite a bit of stratus still floating around under the ridge, but expect that as cooler and drier air moves slowly into the area the stratus will dissipate. Winds on the west coast will generally be light with a few exceptions in channeled areas where winds gusting to 25 mph can be expected. Central and Eastern Interior...Some clouds and possibly flurries today, but fairly benign weather across the interior the next couple days. Winds generally light with the exception of the Alaska Range passes where north winds gusting to 35 mph can be expected on the south end of the passes. Temperatures will slowly fall this week as cooler air moves in. Overnight lows will be highly dependent on cloud cover. If skies clears some areas will see temperatures fall to around 30 below starting Wednesday morning. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 17  FXAK69 PAFG 282159 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1259 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...The 28/12Z solutions did initialize well against the 28/18Z surface analysis for positions and central pressures.Good agreement aloft in the short term for this set of solutions. Moving into the extended periods there continues to be some similarity in the solutions early, then significant differences the further out they go. Will use an equal blend for the short term, but will need to go in an tweak the temperatures individually. For the extended periods will lean on the WPC solutions which used primarily a blend of the Ensemble means. Aloft...at 500 hpa...Ridging extends south over the Arctic Coast from a 545 dam high over the Pole and will slide west to the Dateline by Wednesday morning as a 503 dam low develops south of Banks Island and moves west over Prudhoe Bay by Wednesday morning. The low will continue west to the Chukchi Sea by Wednesday night at 506 dam, then southwest over the Bering Strait by Thursday morning. A 510 dam low over the Central Brooks Range will move southwest over Kotzebue by Wednesday morning, then merge with the low moving over the Bering Strait. A weak trough will persist over the Arctic Plain. Weak ridging over the Southeast Interior will slide north a bit and push into the Central Interior east of Tanana tonight an persist into Wednesday night before breaking down. A 491 dam low near Cold Bay will weaken to 505 dam as it moves over Sand Point by Wednesday evening, then moves south of the Gulf of Alaska as it continues to weaken. Ridging over the Western Bering Sea will move to the Eastern Bering Sea and Bering Strait by Thursday evening. A col will develop over the Central Interior Thursday and be pushed out by Friday morning as the ridging over the West Coast moves inland. At 850 hpa...Temperatures over the forecast area will remain fairly static from -5C to -15C as the -10 isotherm lies from Norton Sound to Eagle through Thursday. Surface...Ridging continues over the Central and Eastern Interior with a 1005 mb high over the Yukon Territory and a 1002 mb high over the Upper Yukon Flats. A 953 mb stacked low over Dutch Harbor will slowly move to Sand Point by Wednesday evening, then moves southeast into the north Pacific as it weakens. A ridge of high pressure will push north over the western Bering Sea Wednesday evening, and moves to the Eastern Bering Sea south of the Bering Strait by Thursday morning. A weak high pressure pattern will persist over the interior through the week. A weather front will move to the Western Bering Sea Thursday morning, and to the West Coast and Bering Strait by Friday morning. High pressure over the Arctic will persist as a 1028 mb high north of the Canadian Archipelago moves southwest to the Dateline, then west into the Siberian Arctic. A weak trough will persist over the Arctic Plain extending east to a 997 mb low near Banks Island. Leeside troughing north of the Alaska Range with enhanced pressure gradient in the upper Tanana Valley and across the Alaska Range as high pressure persists over the Copper River Basin and Yukon Territory. The high breaks down a bit Thursday, but expect it to return on Saturday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus persisting over the area can be seen on the SPoRT NPP VIIRS Nighttime Microphysics RGB product at 28/1746Z. GOES MVFR Probability from 28/1845Z showing most of the Chukchi Sea and Arctic Coast have high probability of stratus. With weak troughing in the area expect the stratus to continue to hang over the area with flurries and patchy fog. Winds along the coast will be primarily northeast at 10 to 20 mph, while inland winds will be southeast to southwest at 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures falling slowly through the weekend. West Coast and Western Interior...Some stratus floating around in the Bering Strait, Norton Sound, the Lower Yukon Delta, and the Eastern Bering Sea may produce some light snow of flurries, up to 1 inch of snow can be expected on St Lawrence Island, elsewhere no significant accumulations is expected tonight. Winds on the coast northwest to northeast and generally decreasing overnight south of Kivalina. North of Kivalina winds increasing with gusts around 50 mph. Winds on St Lawrence Island and the Lower Yukon Delta will be northeast to east at 15 to 30 mph. Temperatures steady to slightly warmer as some warm air is pushed north. Central and Eastern Interior...High pressure over the Yukon continues to hold on impacting the weather in the Central and Eastern Interior. Tanana Valley Jet will persist and increase some overnight as the gradient tightens up a bit so expect gusts to 45 mph developing. Gap flow winds will develop across the Alaska Range as well with some gust to around 40 mph tonight and Wednesday, then gusts around 50 mph Wednesday night. A bubble high develops north of the Ray Mountains, so expect some gusty winds along the Elliott Highway to 45 mph tonight, strongest through Ptarmigan Pass. With the exception of some high clouds moving through the area, most areas will be partly cloudy the next couple days. Not much snow in the forecast at this time, next chance looks like Thursday for the Fairbanks area. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Strong southeast to south winds developing in advance of a storm in the Bering Sea has the potential to produce High Surf on St Lawrence Island and in Norton Sound Thursday night through Friday. && Extended Forecast days 4 to 7...Relatively quiet in the Arctic and over the West Coast. A weather front will move over the West Coast Friday night and dissipate as it moves inland Saturday and Sunday. Strong gusty winds will develop over the West Coast and Chukchi Sea Saturday and persist into Monday. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory for AKZ219-AKZ221. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225- PKZ230. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ230. Gale Warning for PKZ220-PKZ225. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235. && $$ SDB NOV 17  FXAK69 PAFG 051221 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 321 AM AKST Fri Jan 5 2018 .DISCUSSION... Models...Models are in very good agreement on the short term solutions. Surface solutions from the 05/00Z run initialized well against the 05/12Z surface analysis. Pretty quiet over the forecast area, and will models in good agreement, will use a blend of the solutions for this short term forecast cycle. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging extends north from the northeast Pacific over Cook Inlet to a 538 dam center over Denali, then northwest over the Seward and Chukotsk Peninsulas. The high will cutoff and the closed center will move over the Central Interior at 536 dam tonight with the ridging extending northwest over the Chukchi Sea and Siberian Arctic Coast. By Saturday morning the high will be over the Upper Kobuk Basin with ridging extending northwest over Wrangel Island, and southeast over Eagle and British Columbia. And by Sunday morning the high will be over the Northwest Arctic Coast with ridging extending northwest over the Arctic, and southwest over the Panhandle. A 490 dam low over the Dateline in the BEring Sea will be pushing the ridge north as it moves northwest and a strong shortwave swinging around it moves to the Western Alaska Peninsula this afternoon, Bristol Bay tonight, and over the southwest Mainland and northern Gulf of Alaska by Saturday morning. The shortwave stalls out and weakens there through Sunday morning. A second shortwave will swing around the low Sunday as the low is absorbed into a 499 dam low over the Sea of Ohkotsk. The shortwave will move over Bristol Bay Sunday morning, and moves to lie from over the Gulf of Anadyr to King Salmon by Sunday evening, and continues to move north along the western flank of the Ridge. Troughing associated with a low over the Canadian Archipelago digs in to the east of the ridge over Canada pulling cold air south. At 850 hpa...Temperatures generally below zero to around -15 over the Arctic Coast this morning. Some patches of above zero temperatures moving over the southwest mainland as the low pulls some warm air north today. The slightly warmer temperatures will persist into Sunday morning. Much colder air is being pulled south over Canada, and into the eastern areas of the state. Models are significantly divided on how much cold air will actually move into the state with the GFS keeping the -20 isotherm over the Yukon Territory, and the NAM, ECMWF, and Canadian models pulling the cold air as far west as Anaktuvuk Pass to Central to Dot Lake to Beaver Creek YT by Monday afternoon. Will lean toward the colder temperatures for the end of the short term forecast. Surface...Broad area of cyclonic flow around a pair of 960 mb lows along the Aleutians will spin a weather front north over the southwest coast, the lower Yukon Delta, Norton Sound, and St Lawrence Island. High pressure over the Eastern Interior with a 1020 mb center over the Upper Yukon Flats will slide north and east the next 24 hours to lie from a 1029 mb center near 78N 180 to Demarcation Point, then south over the Yukon Territory with rigging poking in over the Cooper River Basin. The lows over the Aleutians will merge over the Western Bering Sea near 57N 175E into a 948 dam low tonight. The low will move northeast to 60N 180 by Saturday afternoon at 968 mb, and into the Gulf of Anadyr by Sunday afternoon at 985 mb. The pressure gradient will tighten up over St lawrence Island, Bering Strait, Chukchi Sea, most of the Western Interior, and the Western Brooks Range tonight as the low moves north. The gradient will relax late Saturday morning as the low weakens. Leeside troughing north of the Alaska Range will develop tonight as a 998 mb low develops south of Nenana. This will also enhance the Tanana Valley jet as high pressure strengthens over the Upper Yukon and Tanana Valleys. A weaker high will build over the Upper Tanana Flats, but expect the gradient to tighten up a bit over the Ray Mountains as well. Leeside troughing north of the Brooks Range will develop Monday as trough builds east across the area, and high pressure builds west over the south slopes over the Eastern Brooks Range. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Relatively quiet, though the stratus is being a pain. GOES MVFR/IFR Probability Product at 05/1015Z indicates a wide swath of MVFR conditions over the area from Point Lay to Anaktuvuk Pass and east this morning and is moving very slowly to the northeast. A few flurries are occurring and will continue through the day with minor accumulations. Winds generally east at 5 to 15 mph this morning, but they will slowly increase from west to east as the gradient tightens with the low in the Bering Sea moving to the Gulf of Anadyr, then over the Eastern Arctic Coast tonight as the trough builds east over the Arctic Plains. West Coast and Western Interior...Pressure gradient continues tighten across the area today with increasing winds. The strongest winds will be over St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait, but strong winds will cover most of the area including the Western Interior. Expect the strongest winds will be gusts to around 50 mph today and tonight before things settle down. Precipitation will be limited over the area as the front stretches out and dissipates. Some snow on St Lawrence Island and the Lower Yukon Delta today and tonight spreading to Norton Sound, the Seward Peninsula, and Bering Strait Coast Saturday night. The front continues to stretch out and reorient to north-south with some spotty precipitation continuing over the Seward Peninsula and Chukchi Sea Coast through Monday. Slightly warmer temperatures the next couple days. Central and Eastern Interior...Some gusting winds to 55 mph around Delta Junction as the Tanana Valley jet sets up, Gap winds in the Alaska Range to 45 mph, and gusty winds along the Elliott and Dalton Highways to 35 mph. Winds will increase this evening and diminish late Saturday morning. Some spotty stratus around the interior this morning will continue to hang around with nothing to push it out of the area. So temperature forecasts will be difficult as the stratus keeps areas warmer. No precipitation in the interior through the weekend. && Coastal Hazards for days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Models vary on the amount of cold air that will filter in from Canada so temperatures over the Eastern Interior will need to be refined as the model solutions figure it out. A low moving to the Central Aleutians midweek will send another round of precipitation to the lower Yukon Delta and St Lawrence Island, but it doesn't look like it will make it much farther north than that. Expect periods of gusty winds in the Alaska Range and around Delta Junction when the leeside trough strengthens. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory for AKZ223. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ205-AKZ221. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210. Gale Warning for PKZ210. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB JAN 18  FXAK69 PAFG 071224 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 324 AM AKST Sun Jan 7 2018 .DISCUSSION... Models...Pretty good agreement all the way around with 07/00Z solutions, evening into the extended periods over the Arctic. Surface solutions initialized well against the 07/12Z surface analysis. With limited precipitation will use the SREF for the short term. Temperatures have been a real battle the last few days, but models are in much better agreement, so will use a blend and make some minor adjustments based on current conditions. Aloft...At 500 hpa...537 dam high has moved to just north of Point Lay this morning with the ridge axis extending northwest across the Arctic and southeast over Yakutat. By Monday morning the center will be over Point Barrow at 540 dam with the axis extending north over the high Arctic, and south over Kodiak City. A 495 dam low that was over the central Bering Sea yesterday has filled but a trough lies from west of the Gulf of Anadyr southeast over Sand Point this morning, and there is a 528 dam low over Kodiak City. The low over Kodiak City will move over the Central Gulf of Alaska at 528 dam by Monday morning, then merge with a trough that is moving south over the Yukon Territory and starts digging southwest over Yakutat Monday evening. The trough over the Bering Sea will move north up the western flank of the ridge to lie over the Siberian Coast and Western Chukchi Sea Coast by Monday morning. Monday the high over Point Barrow will slide south, then move northwest over the Chukchi Sea while the trough over the Yukon Territory digs over the Western Gulf of Alaska with a 516 dam low developing over Yakutat, and over the North Pacific a 495 dam low will move Over Amchitka then move east over the Aleutians to Atka by Tuesday afternoon. As the high moves south then northwest the trough that was over the Siberian Coast will move up over the top of the ridge to be over MacKenzie Bay by Wednesday morning with a 520 dam low developing and continuing to dig south and west as the high persists over the Chukchi Sea. At 850 hpa...Temperatures below zero with the -10 isotherm lying from Point Lay to Beaver Creek YT this morning and the -20 isotherm over Demarcation Point. The cold air continues to be pulled south over the Yukon Territory and the -10 isotherm will move to lie from Wainwright to Anaktuvuk Pass to Ambler to Galena to Yakutat, while the -20 isotherm will lie from Kaktovik to Atigun Pass to Dawson YT Monday morning. The cold air will nudge just a bit further west through Tuesday morning before it gets pushed back into Canada Tuesday night. Surface...Broad area of cyclonic flow around a 980 mb low near the Gulf of Anadyr persists over the Bering Sea and West Coast today while high pressure associated with a 1039 mb high 500 nm north of Point Barrow builds south over mainland Alaska to the Copper River Basin with a 1027 mb center developing in the Northern Yukon Territory. High pressure continues to build over the state as the low in the Bering Sea moves into Siberia and dissipates. The high in the Arctic will move to 400 nm north of Prudhoe Bay by Monday morning with a high over the Yukon Territory building to 1037 mb. A 949 mb low will move to Amchitka by Monday morning and moves slowly east to Atka by Tuesday afternoon as it weakens to 973 mb. High pressure will build in south of the Eastern Brooks Range tonight and tighten the pressure gradient across the Ray and White Mountains, the Upper Chena and Salcha Basins, and eventually the Upper Tanana Valley with the Tanana Valley Jet kicking in. Leeside troughing north of the Brooks Range will develop Monday as trough builds east across the Plains and Arctic Coast while high pressure builds west over the south slopes over the Eastern Brooks Range creating a tight pressure gradient across the Eastern Brooks Range. The pressure gradient will also tighten up over the Nulato Hills tonight and persist through the week. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Ground Blizzard conditions continue around Point Lay and expect them to continue so no changes to the Warning and the Winter Weather Advisory for the Western Brooks Range. GOES MVFR/IFR Probability product at 07/1015Z not showing much low stratus over the Arctic Coast this morning, and observations confirm that. NPP VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 07/1016Z shows a nice patch of stratus over the Beaufort Sea that is moving southwest toward the Eastern Arctic Coast and will need to be watched. Most of the area will be partly cloudy. Northeast to East winds continue across the area at 10 to 25 mph with winds around 30 to 40 mph around Point Lay. Blowing snow will continue around the area and visibility may be impacted more as winds pick up a bit this afternoon. Very poor visibility will continue around Point Lay into the late afternoon. Pressure gradient tightens up over the Eastern Brooks Range Monday with gusty gap winds to 40 mph developing. Temperatures slightly warmer on the northwest coast, and cooler on the Eastern Arctic Coast. West Coast and Western Interior...Decaying front will move north over parts of the coast today with some light snow or flurries. A slight chance of freezing drizzle or rain this morning on the Seward Peninsula. As high pressure builds over the interior it will push the front off the coast this evening with clearing over the area. Pressure gradient tightens up over the Nulato Hills Monday as high pressure builds west and the low moves to the Aleutians with winds gusting to around 50 mph locally. The low over the Aleutians Monday will swing a front north over the Lower Yukon Delta and St Lawrence Island Tuesday with a slight chance of snow. No significant changes in the coastal temperatures through Monday, but trending cooler as the offshore flow pulls cooler air out of the interior. Central and Eastern Interior...High pressure continue to build over the area. Mostly clear conditions will continue, but there is some patchy stratus in the Upper Yukon Flats and Valley, and Upper Tanana Valley. NPP VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 07/1016Z shows the stratus appears to be expanding to the west out of the Yukon Territory and will need to be watched as the flow around the high may continue to spread it into the Eastern Interior. The pressure gradient tightens over the Ray and White Mountains, and Upper Chena and Salcha Basins with gusting winds increasing later today and continuing into Tuesday at higher elevations. As the low moves to the Aleutians the leeside trough enhances north of the Alaska Range and the Tanana Valley Jet will kick back in with gusty winds starting Monday night and continuing into Wednesday. Temperatures will continue to fall as cold air filters in from the east with the coldest temperatures Wednesday and Thursday morning falling to the 30s below to around 40 below. && Coastal Hazards for days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Temperature forecast remains difficult, but models are in better agreement on continued cooling in the Interior. A upper level low will move over the Upper Yukon Flats Wednesday night that may spread some clouds into the area, otherwise mostly clear conditions through the week. Models are in fairly good agreement so a blend of the current solutions with the ensemble mean should provide a good start. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Blizzard Warning for AKZ201. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ205-AKZ211. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210. Gale Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JAN 18  FXAK69 PAFG 081244 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 344 AM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018 .DISCUSSION... Models...Good agreement in the short term continues in the 08/00Z set of solutions. Each new set of solutions strengthens the 500 hpa low dropping south over the Eastern Arctic Coast Wednesday morning, they also continue to change what will happen with the low as it moves over the interior. Surface solutions continue to initialize well, and there were only minor differences when compared to the 08/12Z surface analysis. Limited precipitation again today, so will use the SREF solution for the short term. Temperatures continue to be difficult, models not handling the cold air advection and low sun angle which is producing cooling or flat diurnal trends, so will use the current database making minor adjustments based on current temperatures, then an almost straight interpolation for the trend. Aloft...At 500 hpa...High has moved over Point Barrow at 540 dam with axis extending north over the high Arctic, south over Cook Inlet, and west over the Bering Strait and northern Bering Sea Coast. The low that was over the northern Bering Sea yesterday has moved over Siberia and filled and the trough has move over the Siberian Coast and Western Chukchi Sea Coast. A 527 dam low lies just west of Kodiak City, and a 495 dam low has moved out of the North Pacific to Amchitka. A trough over the Beaufort Sea last night has moved over the Southern Yukon Territory and is digging southwest over Yakutat and will dig west across the northern Gulf of Alaska today and tonight. The high over Point Barrow will slide south, then move northwest over the Chukchi Sea with ridging extending south over Kaltag, then southeast over Cordova. The trough that was over the Siberian coast will ride up and over the ridge today and tonight to be over the Central Arctic by Tuesday morning, and continues to rotate over the ridge to be over the Eastern Arctic Coast by Wednesday morning with a 522 dam closed low forming and moving over the Eastern Brooks Range. The low will then back to the west over the interior through Thursday night, and will be over the Gulf of Anadyr Friday morning. The low over Amchitka will move east to Atka as it weakens to 510 dam by Wednesday morning, then moves west and merges with a low moving out of the northwest Pacific. At 850 hpa...Cooling trend continues across the forecast area. The -10 isotherm lies from Wainwright to Anaktuvuk Pass to Huslia to Cantwell to Yakutat this morning, and will lie from Point Hope to Minchumina to Whittier by Tuesday morning. The -20 isotherm lies from Kaktovik to Chandalar Lake to Fort Yukon to Beaver Creek YT and will push to the west a bit today, then start pulling back into Canada tonight. Surface...High pressure continues to build south and west over the state from a 1042 mb high 400 nm north of Kaktovik. By Tuesday morning the high moves over the Central Beaufort Sea at 1038 mb, then moves southeast over the Northwest Territories by Wednesday morning at 1036 mb. A 949 mb low near Amchitka will move slowly east to Atka by Tuesday afternoon as it weakens to 976 mb. A 1024 mb center will develop over the Upper Porcupine Basin with riding pushing west over the south slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range, while leeside troughing will build east over the Arctic Plain and Coast creating a tight pressure gradient across the Eastern Brooks Range. The troughing over the plains will also enhance the gradient over the Eastern Arctic Coast from this morning through this evening. With the high over the Upper Porcupine, a tight pressure gradient will also develop over the uplands north of Fairbanks from the Ray to the White Mountains, and southeast over the Upper Chena and Salcha Basins as the leeside trough north of the Alaska Range enhances a bit later today. As the low near the Aleutians slides east the pressure gradient over the Nulato Hills will also tighten up a bit and persist through the remainder of the week. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Ground Blizzard conditions continue from Point Lay to Wainwright, but conditions will be improving later today as the winds diminish. On the Eastern Arctic Coast blowing snow has developed and conditions will deteriorate through the day as the winds increase to 25 to 40 mph, so Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the Coast From Nuiqsut east. Winds will diminish tonight as the trough moves over the coast and the gradient moves offshore. Gusty gap winds from Anaktuvuk Pass east, developing in the afternoon, in the Brooks Range to 40 mph will produce local blowing snow that will create poor visibility at times. NPP VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 08/0957Z only cover the Beaufort Sea and there is no stratus showing up. GOES MVFR/IFR Probability Product at 08/1130Z indicates some MVFR clouds over Chukchi Sea, but offshore. Temperatures slightly warmer on the northwest coast, and cooler on the Eastern Arctic Coast. West Coast and Western Interior...Stratus over the west coast from Point Hope to the Lower Yukon Delta shows up pretty good on the GOES MVFR/IFR Probability Product at 08/1130Z, and the NPP VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 08/10?????Z. As the ridge continues to build south and west the stratus is moving west and will be pushed offshore by this afternoon with clearing skies across the area. Still a few flurries with the stratus, but nothing significant. Combination of low moving to the Central Aleutians and the high building south and west the pressure gradient over the area tightens up and winds increase over most of the area. Strongest winds will be over the Nulato Hills and Western Norton Sound with some gusts near 50 mph. Temperatures trending slightly cooler through Friday morning. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear across the area, and the stratus over the southeast interior will be clearing later this morning. Some gusty winds in the uplands to the north from the Ray Mountains southeast to the Upper Salcha Basin with winds gusting to around 30 mph at times. Locally some blowing snow can be expected above treeline and may impact visibility on 12 miles and Eagle Summits, and Ptarmigan Pass along the highways. Temperatures continue to fall as cold air filters in from the east, and the coldest temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday morning as they fall to -30 to -40. && Coastal Hazards for days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Models are in better agreement. A blend of the current solutions with the ensemble mean should provide a good start. Chinook event starting late Friday will bring warmer temperatures to the Interior for the weekend, and strong gusty winds to the Alaska Range. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Blizzard Warning for AKZ201. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230- PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JAN 18  FXAK69 PAFG 081316 CCA AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 416 AM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018 .DISCUSSION... Models...Good agreement in the short term continues in the 08/00Z set of solutions. Each new set of solutions strengthens the 500 hpa low dropping south over the Eastern Arctic Coast Wednesday morning, they also continue to change what will happen with the low as it moves over the interior. Surface solutions continue to initialize well, and there were only minor differences when compared to the 08/12Z surface analysis. Limited precipitation again today, so will use the SREF solution for the short term. Temperatures continue to be difficult, models not handling the cold air advection and low sun angle which is producing cooling or flat diurnal trends, so will use the current database making minor adjustments based on current temperatures, then an almost straight interpolation for the trend. Aloft...At 500 hpa...High has moved over Point Barrow at 540 dam with axis extending north over the high Arctic, south over Cook Inlet, and west over the Bering Strait and northern Bering Sea Coast. The low that was over the northern Bering Sea yesterday has moved over Siberia and filled and the trough has move over the Siberian Coast and Western Chukchi Sea Coast. A 527 dam low lies just west of Kodiak City, and a 495 dam low has moved out of the North Pacific to Amchitka. A trough over the Beaufort Sea last night has moved over the Southern Yukon Territory and is digging southwest over Yakutat and will dig west across the northern Gulf of Alaska today and tonight. The high over Point Barrow will slide south, then move northwest over the Chukchi Sea with ridging extending south over Kaltag, then southeast over Cordova. The trough that was over the Siberian coast will ride up and over the ridge today and tonight to be over the Central Arctic by Tuesday morning, and continues to rotate over the ridge to be over the Eastern Arctic Coast by Wednesday morning with a 522 dam closed low forming and moving over the Eastern Brooks Range. The low will then back to the west over the interior through Thursday night, and will be over the Gulf of Anadyr Friday morning. The low over Amchitka will move east to Atka as it weakens to 510 dam by Wednesday morning, then moves west and merges with a low moving out of the northwest Pacific. At 850 hpa...Cooling trend continues across the forecast area. The -10 isotherm lies from Wainwright to Anaktuvuk Pass to Huslia to Cantwell to Yakutat this morning, and will lie from Point Hope to Minchumina to Whittier by Tuesday morning. The -20 isotherm lies from Kaktovik to Chandalar Lake to Fort Yukon to Beaver Creek YT and will push to the west a bit today, then start pulling back into Canada tonight. Surface...High pressure continues to build south and west over the state from a 1042 mb high 400 nm north of Kaktovik. By Tuesday morning the high moves over the Central Beaufort Sea at 1038 mb, then moves southeast over the Northwest Territories by Wednesday morning at 1036 mb. A 949 mb low near Amchitka will move slowly east to Atka by Tuesday afternoon as it weakens to 976 mb. A 1024 mb center will develop over the Upper Porcupine Basin with riding pushing west over the south slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range, while leeside troughing will build east over the Arctic Plain and Coast creating a tight pressure gradient across the Eastern Brooks Range. The troughing over the plains will also enhance the gradient over the Eastern Arctic Coast from this morning through this evening. With the high over the Upper Porcupine, a tight pressure gradient will also develop over the uplands north of Fairbanks from the Ray to the White Mountains, and southeast over the Upper Chena and Salcha Basins as the leeside trough north of the Alaska Range enhances a bit later today. As the low near the Aleutians slides east the pressure gradient over the Nulato Hills will also tighten up a bit and persist through the remainder of the week. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Ground Blizzard conditions continue from Point Lay to Wainwright, but conditions will be improving later today as the winds diminish. On the Eastern Arctic Coast blowing snow has developed and conditions will deteriorate through the day as the winds increase to 25 to 40 mph, so Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the Coast From Nuiqsut east. Winds will diminish tonight as the trough moves over the coast and the gradient moves offshore. Gusty gap winds from Anaktuvuk Pass east, developing in the afternoon, in the Brooks Range to 40 mph will produce local blowing snow that will create poor visibility at times. NPP VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 08/1137Z oonly shows some stratus around Cape Lisburne. GOES MVFR/IFR Probability Product at 08/1130Z indicates some MVFR clouds over Chukchi Sea, but offshore. Temperatures slightly warmer on the northwest coast, and cooler on the Eastern Arctic Coast. West Coast and Western Interior...Stratus over the west coast from Point Hope to the Lower Yukon Delta shows up pretty good on the GOES MVFR/IFR Probability Product at 08/1130Z, and the NPP VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 08/1137Z. As the ridge continues to build south and west the stratus is moving west and will be pushed offshore by this afternoon with clearing skies across the area. Still a few flurries with the stratus, but nothing significant. Combination of low moving to the Central Aleutians and the high building south and west the pressure gradient over the area tightens up and winds increase over most of the area. Strongest winds will be over the Nulato Hills and Western Norton Sound with some gusts near 50 mph. Temperatures trending slightly cooler through Friday morning. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear across the area, and the stratus over the southeast interior will be clearing later this morning. Some gusty winds in the uplands to the north from the Ray Mountains southeast to the Upper Salcha Basin with winds gusting to around 30 mph at times. Locally some blowing snow can be expected above treeline and may impact visibility on 12 miles and Eagle Summits, and Ptarmigan Pass along the highways. Temperatures continue to fall as cold air filters in from the east, and the coldest temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday morning as they fall to -30 to -40. && Coastal Hazards for days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Models are in better agreement. A blend of the current solutions with the ensemble mean should provide a good start. Chinook event starting late Friday will bring warmer temperatures to the Interior for the weekend, and strong gusty winds to the Alaska Range. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Blizzard Warning for AKZ201. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230- PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JAN 18  FXAK69 PAFG 101315 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 415 AM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018 .DISCUSSION... Models...Good agreement in the short term. 10/00Z Solutions initialized well at the surface, with only minor differences when compared to the 10/06Z surface analysis. Will blend with the current database for most elements, making minor adjustments in the near term. Aloft...At 500 hpa...538 dam high 150 east of Wrangel Island this morning and will slowly rotate northeast to 300 nm northwest of Point Barrow by Thursday morning, and 400 nm north of Point Barrow by Friday morning. 522 dam low has moved over the Eastern Brooks Range and will move over Tanana by Thursday morning at 518 dam, then west over the Gulf of Anadyr by Friday morning at 512 dam. A trough will persist over the Brooks Range. Ridging will persist over the northeast Pacific and Gulf of Alaska. A 511 dam low 150 nm west of St Matthew Island with a shortwave extending east to Cape Romanzof will move northwest into Siberia and dissipate. A 502 dam low in the central Bering Sea will merge with a 495 dam low that will move south of the central Aleutians by Thursday morning and merge with a developing 495 dam low that will be 150 nm south of Nikolski. At 850 hpa...Temperatures relatively flat the next couple days, with only some weak warming in the Upper Yukon Flats, Fortymile Country, and along the AlCan border. Surface...Broad area of low pressure remains over the Bering Sea and the southwest mainland. 1038 mb high remains over the Yukon Territory with ridging extending north over the eastern Beaufort Sea and west along 75N in the Arctic, west over the south slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range, and west over the Copper River Basin with a 1023 mb high near Glennallen. Ridging over Canada will weaken the next couple days as the low pressure over the Bering Sea pushes north as a 958 mb low moves to 150 nm south of Nikolski Thursday morning, and 300 nm south of Kodiak Island by Friday morning. A 1023 mb high will develop over the Central Arctic Thursday morning, and move to the northeast Arctic by Friday morning at 1028 mb. Trough over the Arctic Coast this morning will persist into Saturday. Tight pressure gradient across the Eastern Brooks Range will weak this morning as ridging to the south weakens, then tighten back up Friday night with gusty gap winds returning. Tanana Valley Jet will weaken a bit today as the leeside troughing north of the Alaska Range weakens a bit today, then strengthen Thursday night with the gradient tightening back up. Gradient also remains relatively tight over the highlands to the north and east of Fairbanks. Tight pressure gradient over the Nulato Hills will persist. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Still getting some gusty winds in the Eastern Brooks Range this morning as the GOES IR at 10/1145Z indicates, but they will be diminishing this morning. High moving to the northeast Arctic Friday will start pinching the trough over the area, and strong winds will develop on the Eastern Arctic Coast, with strong gap wind developing in the Eastern Brooks Range as the high pressure over the south slopes strengthens. Expect some blowing snow issues east of Nuiqsut, and in the eastern Brooks Range, when the winds do kick up. Mostly clear over most of the area today, but NPP VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 10/1159Z shows stratus around a low level circulation north of Barrow that extends from Nuiqsut to Point Lay and northwest over the Arctic. GOES MVFR/IFR Probability Product at 10/1130Z indicates MVFR clouds over the same area, and observations have the stratus as low as 300 ft. West Coast and Western Interior...Mostly Clear, some gusty winds to 40 mph, mainly in the Nulato Hills, channeled areas, and downslope off the Central Brooks Range north of Ambler. Temperatures trending slightly cooler through Friday morning. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear with some high clouds mainly east of Fairbanks moving south across the area today. A upper level low over the Brooks Range will move west over the Yukon River Basin, and this may help develops some clouds north of Fairbanks. Winds continue to be strong over the higher terrain, but will settle down some today, so expect some cooler daytime temperatures with the lighter winds. The winds in the hills will increase tonight with gusts around 40 mph expected over the Ray and White Mountains, and the Upper Chena and Upper Salcha Basins. The Tanana Valley Jet will settle down today as well, then come back stronger Thursday through Saturday with gusts around 50 mph. Cold air over the area will start retreating back into Canada, but with the winds diminishing today, expect as cold or colder temperatures today and tonight for most areas. && Coastal Hazards for days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Flow becoming southwest over the area and that will allow the ridging over Canada to build back in to the interior. No precipitation expected. Cooler temperatures in the Eastern Interior, and gusty winds returning to the uplands and Upper Tanana Valley. A blend of the solutions is likely the best place to start. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory for AKZ217-AKZ223. Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ223. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210. && $$ SDB JAN 18  FXAK69 PAFG 291147 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 247 AM AKST Mon Jan 29 2018 .DISCUSSION... Models...29/00Z solutions are in good agreement into the mid term, and with a fairly stable pattern expect that will continue. 29/00Z surface solutions initialized well against the 29/06Z surface analysis with major feature locations very similar, and central pressures within a couple mb. Not much precipitation in the forecast area, but what we have is showing up in all the solutions to some extent. Will use the SREF for precipitation as it provides the higher probabilities. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Omega blocking pattern will be transitioning through the week to a Rex block as the 565 dam ridge to the west moves to Wrangel Island and rolls over with the axis moving from over the Dateline to over the Arctic Coast by Wednesday afternoon, while a 516 dam low over the Yukon Territory moves over Cook Inlet by Tuesday afternoon, then 200 nm south of Kodiak City by Wednesday afternoon, then moves southwest to 200 nm south of Nikolski by Thursday morning with troughing extending east over the southern Yukon Territory. The high will persist over Wrangel Island through the weekend as the ridge axis rotates to the southeast and will lie from Wrangel Island to the Upper Yukon River Valley by Sunday morning. A weak Col will lie over the Alaska Range. At 850 hpa...Temperatures fairly steady through Tuesday then cooling about 5C from the east midweek into the weekend before starting to warm. Surface...A 968 mb low lies well south of the Gulf of Alaska and is moving northeast and will move over Ketchikan and into British Columbia Tuesday and dissipate. A 1015 mb low over the Central Arctic will move southeast into MacKenzie Bay tonight at 1020 mb, and continue south into the Yukon Territory and dissipate Tuesday. A broad area of high pressure with a 1037 mb center sits over the Northeast Bering Sea, and will persist in the area into Tuesday, then move over Chukotka Tuesday evening. A 100 mb low will develop near Kodiak City Tuesday morning and drift south through Wednesday and dissipate. A 1038 mb high will develop over the Western Arctic Tuesday and move over the Arctic Plains by Tuesday evening at 1046 mb. The high over Chukotka will move over Wrangel Island by Thursday morning at 1044 mb. A 1026 mb low will develop over the Dateline Wednesday and move southeast across the Arctic to the Eastern Arctic Coast by Thursday morning at 1025 mb as the high over the Arctic Plains moves southeast over the Upper Yukon Flats and Valley by Wednesday morning with a 1048 mb center over the Yukon Territory. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...This will be the most active area the next few days as a couple lows moves southeast over the coast into the Yukon Territory. SPoRT LEO Nighttime Microphysics RGB at 29/0813Z indicates a large area of stratus associated with the low that is moving across the area today. Will continue the Winter Weather Advisories for zones 204 and 206, but conditions remain marginal. Cloudy conditions will prevail today and tonight with light snow over the eastern areas today and tonight, and some light snow moving over the western areas on Tuesday. Winds 10 to 20 mph and generally from the north and northeast. Temperatures will cool slightly the next day or so. West Coast and Western Interior...Generally quiet out west with the high west of St Lawrence Island moving north. North flow will continue to spin some clouds south over the area, generally high clouds, but there is some lower stratus that can be seen on the SPoRT LEO Nighttime Microphysics RGB at 29/0956Z, and is confirmed by the GOES IFR Probability product at 29/0930Z. Expect some flurries over the northern Seward Peninsula today and this evening with the low stratus, otherwise mostly clear conditions will prevail. Temperatures steady. Winds along the coast 5 to 15 mph, with light winds inland. Central and Eastern Interior...Some industrial flurries around the power plants in town this morning, with some light accumulations below the plumes, otherwise mostly clear for most of the area. There continues to be some stratus over the Fortymile Country south of Eagle, and the Upper Tanana Valley. Expect some flurries or light snow with that stratus and light accumulations of less than one half inch. Winds across the area will continue to be light with the exception of some stronger north winds in the Alaska Range gaps to 30 mph. Temperatures steady the next day or so, then slightly cooler the remainder of the week. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for Days 4 to 7...Generally quiet pattern as the ridge continues to roll over with no significant precipitation until trough moves north over the Alaska Range late Sunday and Monday. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ204-AKZ206. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JAN 18  FXAK69 PAFG 141142 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 342 AM AKDT Mon May 14 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...A low in the Upper Tanana Valley will spin some showers into the Central and Eastern Interior today, the question is how far west will they spread. Heaviest rainfall will be in the Fortymile Country and Eastern Alaska Range where snow levels are above 3000 feet. Some snow accumulations in the Range, but not expecting much in the Fortymile Country. Showers continue on the West Coast as trough persists in the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea. Areas of stratus and fog on the Arctic Coast will be the challenge today. Breakup continues and the ice was flowing well through the Middle Yukon Sunday. Only minor nuisance high water has been reported so far, but that can change quickly, see below for details. Models...Run to run agreement is good concerning the troughing out west, but changes to the low moving into the Upper Tanana Valley will impact the short term forecast for most of the Interior. There is still good agreement on building the ridge over the AlCan through the week. Extended period solutions are a toss up, so will most likely lean toward the ensemble means for the time being. A equal blend of solutions seems to be the way to go for short term precipitation, and will lean on the previous forecast database for continuity then make only minor adjustments of the temperatures and winds. Relative Humidity output continues to be too dry for most locations, with the exception of the NAM, so will use it for the short term. Aloft...At 500 hpa...531 dam center near Nome will merge with the 528 dam low that moved from the Gulf of Anadyr yesterday to Nunivak Island this morning. The low will move over the southwest mainland and wobble around into Tuesday, then move north into the Middle Yukon Valley by Wednesday morning. A 528 dam low will move southeast across the Chukotsk peninsula to St Lawrence Island by Wednesday afternoon as the low in the Middle Yukon moves to Kotzebue Sound. Weak trough remains just north of the Arctic Coast. The 531 dam center that was in Northeast Pacific yesterday has moved over Icy Cape at 535 dam and will merge into the thermal trough in the Upper Tanana and Yukon Valleys this morning with a 537 dam center over the Yukon Territory. Ridging that extends from a 547 dam center 900 nm north of Nuiqsut over the eastern Arctic, southern Beaufort Sea, the Northwest Territories, then south to a 578 dam center over the Washington State coast will be pushed east as the low moves into the Upper Tanana and Yukon, then reforms over the AlCan Border as the low weakens and dissipates Tuesday. A 538 dam low will move southwest to Banks Island tonight reinforcing the troughing near the Arctic Coast. The ridging over the AlCan will strengthen as the center over the Southwest Mainland moves north and 565 dam heights push northwest over the Southeast Interior by Thursday afternoon. At 850 hpa...Not much change in temperatures from Ruby west this week as they will be around -5C for the most part. Warmer in the Central and Eastern Interior as trough to the west and ridging to the east pulls the Zero isotherm as far west as Ruby and north to the south slopes of the Brooks Range. Strong warm air advection late in the week will bring the +10C isotherm into the Southeast Interior. Surface...Broad area of low pressure continues over mainland Alaska. 1002 mb low in the Upper Tanana Valley has aligned with the thermal trough and extends west to Tanana this morning. Troughing persists over the Eastern Bering Sea, Bering Strait, and Chukchi Sea. High pressure over the Eastern Arctic is pushing south and southwest this morning as the center moves south to 400 nm north of Kaktovik, and the axis rotates to the west. Trough of low pressure persists over the eastern Bering Sea through the Bering Strait and the Chukchi Sea. By Tuesday morning the ridging over the Arctic will push south to the Brooks Range, and southwest to Point Lay, while low pressure persists to the south. Troughing continues in the Upper Tanana Valley and will extend west to the Middle Yukon Valley, and Lower Yukon Delta. By Wednesday morning, not much change over the Arctic, while low pressure continues over the West Coast with thermal troughing extending east over the Upper Yukon Flats, while high pressure will be pushing north into the Middle and Upper Tanana Valleys with a 1025 mb center in the Copper River Basin. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus and dense fog will be the big issue today. The 14/1145Z GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR Probability products show a well defined area that is pushing southwest into the area, and is confirmed by the observations. 1/4 mile visibility and 200 ft ceilings moved to the Eastern Arctic Coast last evening and spread to the Central Arctic Coast overnight, and expect them to move into the Point Barrow in the next couple hours. They will spread as far west as Wainwright before it stalls. Visibility is expected to improve later this morning, however low ceilings will persist over the Coast and Plains as the ridging to the north pushes south. Expect mostly clear conditions in the Brooks Range with light northeast winds. Temperatures slightly cooler, then warming slowly starting Wednesday. West Coast and Western Interior...Low pressure remains in the area, and showery weather will continue. Expect a few breaks in the clouds, with not much change in temperatures, and winds diminishing slightly, but direction should generally be the same as the last few days. Not much change in temperatures the next few days. Expect more organized showers Wednesday and Wednesday night as a low moves north through the area, and again Thursday night and Friday with another low that will send more widespread showers to the area and more than 0.50 inch of rainfall. Warmer and drier late in the week and for the coming weekend. Observers report ice was running freely in the Yukon River around Bishop Rock near Galena and all the way to Kaltag on Sunday, but that can change quickly so monitor the rivers closely. Central and Eastern Interior...Cloudy conditions will prevail today with showers in the Fortymile Country and Upper Tanana Valley. Low in the area is spinning moisture west to the Central Interior and a few sprinkles, and possibly a shower, can be expected, but no significant rainfall in the Middle Tanana Valley today. Rainfall in the Fortymile Country and the Eastern Alaska Range will range from around 0.25 to 0.75 inch with the heaviest rainfall in the upslope areas of the Eastern Alaska Range west of the Tok Cutoff. Snow at higher elevations in the Alaska range with 3 to 8 inches possible. Snow at pass elevations is also expected with around 1 inch along the Parks, Richardson, and Denali Highways, and the Denali Park Road. Breakup continues with no known issues. The mainstem rivers in the Central and Eastern Interior have progressed nicely to this point. Expect some gusty winds near the passes Tuesday, otherwise generally light winds. Temperatures a bit cooler today and Tuesday with all the clouds, then warming the remainder of the week. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .Fire Weather...Thermal trough in the Upper Tanana Valley, but with the low in the Yukon Territory spinning moisture into the area Relative Humidity Values will be above 40 percent today. Expect drying conditions the remainder of the week with Relative humidity values approaching 20 percent in the Tanana and Upper Yukon Valleys by Thursday. Potential for Thunderstorms in the Upper Tanana Valley Tuesday, then the Upper Yukon Flats east of Ft Yukon on Wednesday, but no significant outbreak expected. Winds generally less than 20 mph today with some gusty winds to 30 mph near Alaska Range Passes Tuesday, then lighter winds the remainder of the week. For the latest Fire Weather information go to www.weather.gov/arh/fire. && .Hydrology...Breakup is moving right along, ice was basically flowing free all the way to Kaltag yesterday with not issues noted at Bishop Rock near Galena. Water running high on the Koyukuk River at Bettles, but no issues as it is running 95% ice free according to observer in the area. The Chena River was running high through Fairbanks yesterday, but has continued to slowly fall through the night and not issues are expected. Buckland River near Buckland cleared early Sunday. Still not much going on with the Arctic Rivers except for some overflow that is not currently impacting any roads or communities. For the latest breakup information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Warming and drying conditions with some more seasonal shower and thunderstorm activity later in the week and through the weekend in the Central and Eastern Interior. A low pressure system moving north up the West Coast will spread up to 0.50 inch of rain west of Tanana. A weak low will move north over the Eastern Arctic spreading some showers to the area on Thursday, then more showers Friday night and Saturday as the next low moves north into the area. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SDB MAY 18  FXAK69 PAFG 202108 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 108 PM AKDT Sun May 20 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...Thermal trough lies from the Middle Yukon Valley to the Upper Tanana Valley and a weather front swinging northwest into the interior will bring showers to most interior locations as it moves through this evening through Tuesday. The Arctic remains quiet with low stratus ceilings. Trough over the West Coast will continue to produce some isolated showers. Breakup has moved to the Lower Yukon, see below for details. Models...Surface solutions are similar, and they initialized well against the 20/18Z analysis. The Canadian is a bit more aggressive in moving a low to near Central this evening, but they all indicate enhanced trough along the north slopes of the Alaska Range this evening moving to lie from from the Upper Kuskokwim to the Upper Yukon Flats by Monday evening. A second low will develop near Beaver Creek YT Monday afternoon move north to Chalkyitsik by Tuesday morning at 996 mb, then drifts west to Beaver and slowly weakens through Wednesday. Stability indicies are not great, but there is still some Lifted Indicies around zero from Dot Lake to Delta Junction this evening. Solutions indicate some non zero CAPE values with the thermal trough, but nothing significant. Will use an equal blend for most elements with a strong lean toward continuity since there are not significant changes expected. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Troughing over most of the state as the ridge has moved east with only weak ridging persisting over the northeast corner and Eastern Arctic/Beaufort Sea. A 530 dam center over St Lawrence Island will continue to dive south tonight and merge with a broad 519 dam center that will move to 200 nm southeast of Kodiak Island by Monday morning, then persists in the area into Wednesday. A strong shortwave swinging around the low will move over the Gulf of Alaska Coast, and southern Yukon Territory this evening, and north over the Central and Eastern Interior tonight to lie from King Salmon to McGrath to Tanana to Old Crow YT by Monday morning. By Monday evening the trough will lie from Kodiak City to McGrath to Hughes to Deadhorse. Weaker shortwaves will continue to spin across the Eastern and Central Interior through Monday night. Ridging will build in over the Alaska Range Tuesday night with a 547 dam center over the MatSu Valley. Weak trough will persist over the Western Arctic and Chukchi Sea along 170W through Monday night. At 850 hpa...Zero Isotherm has pushed north and west over all but the coastal areas with the +10C isotherm over the Fortymile Country. Some cooler air digs south over the Central and Northwest Arctic and Northwest Interior Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, pulls back to the north. Some cooler air pushed over the Outer West Coast and St Lawrence Island Wednesday will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the area. Surface...High pressure will persist over the Arctic with a 1029 mb center 400 nm north of Point Barrow. Broad area of low pressure over most of the state with a 984 mb low 200 nm south of Kodiak Island, a 994 mb low near Northway, and a 998 mb low near Marshall. By Monday morning the low south of Kodiak has become quasi stationary, while the low near Northway will be near Central and a well defined trough will lie along the north slopes of the Alaska Range, and weak troughing will persist over the West Coast. By Tuesday morning the trough will move north to lie from Dillingham to McGrath to Beaver and east, while the low near Kodiak weakens as it slides east to 300 nm from the Island. A 1000 mb low will develop in Kotzebue Sound Monday night and move northwest across the Chukchi Sea Tuesday night and Wednesday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus, and more stratus, and after that some more stratus, springtime in the Arctic. The 20/2000Z GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR Probability products indicate IFR conditions over the Eastern Arctic Coast, with MVFR conditions over the remainder of the coastal areas, and the Plains. SPoRT LEO 24hr Microphysics shows a large area of stratus over most of the coastal areas from MacKenzie Bay west to Point Lay with observations showing 400 to 1000 foot ceilings. Not seeing much precipitation, but a sprinkle or a flurry is possible. Winds will persist from the northeast to east at 15 to 30 mph with the strongest winds over the eastern Arctic Coast as the gradient gets pinched as the low move north to the Upper Yukon Flats over most of the area and the 1025 mb high in the Arctic remains stationary. Temperatures steady to a couple degrees warmer through Wednesday. West Coast and Western Interior...Cloudy. Trough over the coast is producing isolated showers up and down the coast, and do not expect that to change as a shortwave aloft swings into the area and reinforces the current trough. Some isolated thunderstorms in the Upper Kuskokwim Valley Monday afternoon, and again Tuesday afternoon. Patchy Dense Fog will return to the Lower Yukon Delta Monday morning, mainly west of Anvik, with improving conditions after 10 am AKDT. Winds generally northeast to northwest at 5 to 20 mph except near the Bering Strait winds to 30 mph. A little cold air gets wrapped into the coast Tuesday, so expect some cooler temperature in the outer coastal areas, and St Lawrence Island, otherwise no significant change. See below for river information. Central and Eastern Interior...Cloudy. Showers swinging north through the area tonight and Monday with isolated thunderstorms From Dot Lake to Delta Junction in the evening. Rainfall generally less than 1/4 inch. Showers will continue to swing north to the Upper Yukon Flats, and west to the Middle Yukon Monday. Winds generally less than 15 mph will be swinging around from southeast tonight to north Monday to west Tuesday. Rivers continue to run high, but no issues have been reported and the rainfall will no produce a significant change in the levels. Not much change in high temperatures through midweek, but overnight lows in the Tanana Valley will be cooler tonight with the showers. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .Fire Weather...Thermal trough extends from the Middle Yukon Valley to the Upper Tanana Valley will slide north to the Upper Yukon Flats by Tuesday morning. A weather front will spin north across the area tonight and Monday bringing showers and some isolated thunderstorms. Some drying behind the front will push Relative Humidity values to around 25 percent in the Tanana Valley and along the AlCan Border Monday. Higher values for Tuesday around 35 percent, then drying again with values around 25 percent in the Middle Tanana Valley and the Upper Yukon Flats. Winds generally less than 15 mph through Wednesday. For the latest Fire Weather information go to www.weather.gov/arh/fire. && .Hydrology...Yukon ran free of ice at Galena Saturday, should be clearing at Kaltag today. Still quite a bit of ice downstream from Aniak, but there is some open water. No reports of problems in the Lower Yukon Delta at this time. For the latest breakup information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Temperatures near seasonal normals with highs around 50 on the West Coast, around 30 on the Arctic Coast, and in the 60s in the Interior. Thermal trough will be over the Upper Yukon Flats Thursday, then slide south over the Tanana Valley for the remainder of the week. A weather front moving into the area from the southeast will bring showers with isolated to scattered Thunderstorms to all Interior areas Thursday and Friday. Gusty winds developing near Alaska Range Passes for Thursday. If the GFS is correct, then the Northwest Arctic Coast may see some strong north winds and High Surf on Saturday. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ230. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ230. Gale Warning for PKZ225. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAY 18  FXAK69 PAFG 232148 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 148 PM AKDT Wed May 23 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...Active unstable pattern will continue in the interior with thunderstorms and showers developing this afternoon. Not quite as active as Tuesday. More showery weather on Thursday, but less thunderstorm activity. Rainfall amounts will be highest to the east and south of Fairbanks and high water and potential minor flooding of low lying areas will remain a concern through the weekend. Will issue a new Special Weather Statement to address those concerns. Most active area for Thunderstorms will be the Middle Yukon River Valley from Galena south, and the Upper Kuskokwim on Thursday. The Arctic remains quiet, but low ceilings and some snowfall may create travel issues. Out on the West Coast they are also dealing with lower ceilings and some areas of poor visibility in fog. Models...Short term continuity remains good, and the extended solutions have somehow come into agreement after being far apart the last few runs. Surface initialization was good against the 23/18Z analysis. Stability indicies are much better today with Lifted Indicies of -5 in a few locations, and CAPE values approaching 200 J/kg. Precipitable water values today range from 0.40 to 0.60 inch. Going with what has worked the last few days as our approach and that will be an equal blend for most elements to maintain continuity. Going to blend in a bit of the ARW, and NMM high resolution solutions to define the area a little better. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging over central Alaska lies from Eagle to Teller and will be squeezed out tonight as a strong wave moves north over the Gulf of Alaska Coast, then over the Southeast Interior by Thursday afternoon. A 542 dam low develops and moves over the Upper Yukon Flats, and a 540 dam low develops and moves near Dawson YT by Thursday afternoon with weak ridging over the Central Brooks Range and Middle Yukon River Valley north of Galena, extending west to a 547 dam high near St Lawrence A 540 dam low over the Upper Noatak Basin will slowly slide to the west to be over the Chukchi Sea Friday morning at 542 dam. Troughing will persist over the Southeast Interior as a 535 dam low develops over the Gulf of Alaska by Friday morning dissipating over the Kenai Peninsula in the afternoon. The 519 dam low that has been moving east over the Southern Bering Sea will cross over into the North Pacific near Nikolski Friday morning and will be 300 nm south of Kodiak Island Friday night, then moves to 200 nm southwest of Yakutat by Sunday morning. A 549 dam high over the Arctic with ridging along 76N will persist, but weaken, then merge with a 556 dam high near 80N 180 Friday afternoon as ridging pushes south over the Arctic Coast. At 850 hpa...Zero Isotherm over all but the Northwest Arctic Coast. Expect it to push back northwest over the coast by Thursday morning. The Zero isotherm will be push south to the Brooks Range this weekend. Surface...High pressure persists over the Arctic with a 1026 mb center 400 nm north of Prudhoe Bay and high pressure pushing south over MacKenzie Bay and west to the New Siberian Islands. The high will move southeast to Banks Island by Thursday morning with ridging extending west to a 1024 mb center 400 nm north of Demarcation Point, then northwest. A trough of low pressure remains over mainland Alaska extending from Dawson YT to Fairbanks to Anvik to a 989 mb low 200 nm north of Adak. By Thursday morning the trough strengthens over the Interior with a 1000 mb low near Dawson YT, a 1000 mb low near Fairbanks, and a 1001 mb low near McGrath. A weather front will set up over the Southeast Interior and persist into the evening before weakening. A 1005 mb low develops near Noatak as will. The low near Adak will move to 100 nm north of Atka, and a developing low will move to 200 nm southeast of Kodiak Island at 998 mb. By Thursday evening the low near Fairbanks will be near Fort Yukon at 999 mb, and the low near McGrath will move to Huslia at 1002 mb. The low near Kodiak will continue to swing northeast, and the low in the Bering Sea will be over Dutch Harbor. A bubble high will cutoff from the high pressure over the Southeast Panhandle and drift over the Western Alaska Range and dissipate. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus, then more stratus in the forecast. Add in a little flurries and fog, and spring in the Arctic. Chance of accumulation snow tonight and Thursday, but less than one half inch. The 23/2100Z GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR Probability products indicate MVFR/IFR conditions over all but the Brooks Range. Current observations show 400 to 900 foot ceilings with condition persisting through at least Friday. Ceilings may lift for short periods. Northeast to east winds at 15 to 30 mph. Temperatures relatively steady. West Coast and Western Interior...Stratus continues to be spun into Kotzebue Sound, and even Norton Sound, so low ceilings will continue through most of the night. Flurries or sprinkles on the outer Capes. Dense fog in Kotzebue Sound will continue into Thursday before clearing significantly. Isolated to scattered showers in the Middle Yukon and Upper Kuskokwim Valleys tonight with scattered thunderstorms from Galena south Thursday. Wind direction remain quite variable at 5 to 20 mph with strongest winds along the coast. No significant change in temperatures expected. Central and Eastern Interior...Showers already popping up and that will continue into the evening, mainly south of the Yukon River. A few thunderstorms will also pop up this evening, mainly east of Fairbanks. Showers developing over most of the area east and south of Fairbanks tonight with rainfall amounts 0.75 to 1.50 inches. Rivers remain high, see below for details. Winds generally light. Temperatures slightly cooler with cloudy conditions the next 36 hours. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .Fire Weather...Thunderstorms will be the primary concern the next couple days, but they will be wet, and isolated. Thunderstorm activity will diminish in the Central and Eastern Interior Thursday, but increase a bit in the Middle Yukon River Valley from Galena south. Wetting rains for most areas south and east of Fairbanks the next couple days. Thermal trough hanging out in the Upper Yukon Flats, but will shift a bit south Thursday, then slide back north to the Flats. Minimum Relative Humidity values above 30 percent, with excellent overnight recovery in most locations. For the latest Fire Weather information go to www.weather.gov/arh/fire. && .Hydrology...Upper Chena River continues to run near minor Flood Stage but is not expected to go above at this time. Special Weather Statement issued for river basins east and south of Fairbanks with 0.75 to 1.50 inches of rain expected by Friday morning. Models are focusing more of the rain over the Fortymile, Johnson, and Robertson River basins with the latest solutions. Will continue to monitor this situation along with the River Forecast Center. Breakup continues in the lower reaches of the Yukon River with no issues noted the last 24 hours. For the latest breakup and flooding information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Models all of a sudden have come into much better agreement. Seasonal afternoon showers to start the week for most areas with a weather front bringing some rain to most locations Thursday. Temperatures pretty steady through Tuesday, then slightly warmer Wednesday and Thursday. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAY 18  FXAK69 PAFG 282147 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 147 PM AKDT Mon May 28 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...Thunderstorm activity today will lie along a line from Hughes to Kaltag to McGrath then along the south slopes of the Alaska Range to Beaver Creek YT. Northeast of that line will be quiet with partly cloudy conditions and a sprinkle possible in the Middle Tanana Valley this evening, and partly cloudy conditions on the West Coast. That area of instability will slowly slide north into the Interior Tuesday and persist the remainder of the week. The Arctic remains quiet, but low ceilings and some snowfall may create travel issues. Models...Good agreement in the short term, but extended solutions leave a lot to be desired. 28/12Z surface solutions initialized well against the 28/18Z analysis. Stability indicies are highest in the Middle Yukon and Upper Kuskokwim River Valleys with Lifted Indicies around -5, and CAPE values up to 175 J/kg. Precipitable water values continue in the 0.40 to 0.60 inch range. For the short term will go with an equal blend for most elements and maintain continuity. For the extended will lean on the WPC/Ensemble forecasts as deterministic solutions are struggling at this time. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging over the state with the axis lying from high in the Arctic to a 554 dam center 200 nm north of Nuiqsut to Manley Hot Springs to Seward this afternoon. There is a shortwave across the state that lies from a 541 dam low in the Yukon Territory over Eagle to Healy to Nikolai to Buckland. A 522 dam low has moved over the Central Bering Sea with a wave swinging around to lie from the low across the Central Alaska Peninsula and west of Kodiak Island. The low over the Yukon Territory will continue to dig southwest tonight moving over Dawson YT by Tuesday morning, and then northwest over Central by Tuesday afternoon as it cuts off the ridging and the high over the Arctic moves southeast over Kaktovik by Tuesday afternoon at 554 dam. The high will continue to move southeast over the Southeast Yukon Territory by Wednesday morning, while the low over Central will move over the Atigun Pass at 542 dam, and the low in the Bering Sea will move over St Matthew Island at 525 dam as the associated shortwave moves to merge with the low near Atigun Pass. By Thursday morning the low near Atigun Pass will move just north of Prudhoe Bay, the low over St Matthew Island will be over Nunivak Island as it weakens to 535 dam, another low will develop southeast of Kodiak Island with a 543 dam center, and the ridging over the Yukon Territory will push back to the west over the Central and Eastern Interior with 550 dam heights over the AlCan Border. Ridging across the Arctic will be split as the low moves north with a 544 dam center over the southwest Arctic. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm over all but the Northeast corner of the state as upper level low over the Yukon Territory is pulling some cold air southwest over the area. That cooler air moderates rapidly tonight and the 0C isotherm moves back north of the area. As the low over the Bering Sea approaches the coast the 0C isotherm will be pushed to the northeast and by Wednesday morning it will lie from Shishmaref to Nikolai to Haines with above 0C temperatures to the north. Warmer temperatures will push back to the southwest late in the week. Surface...High pressure remains over the Arctic with a 1021 mb center 150 nm north of Prudhoe Bay and ridging extending northwest, and southeast over MacKenzie Bay. Low pressure remains across the Interior with the Thermal Trough along the north slopes of the Alaska Range. Weak high pressure with a 1015 mb center is over Eastern Norton Sound, with a 983 mb low in the Central Bering Sea with a weather front moving over Nunivak Island and the Alaska Peninsula. By Tuesday morning the high in the Arctic will move to 400 nm north of Demarcation Point with ridging extending southeast across MacKenzie Bay, while the low in the Central Bering Sea will move to the Dateline with the front spinning north to lie along the Southwest Coast and just south of Kodiak Island with the leeside/Thermal Trough north of the Alaska Range extending into the Upper Tanana Valley. The front continues to move inland to lie from Nome to Homer by Tuesday evening with the troughing persisting north of the Alaska Range. By Wednesday morning the trough continues to weaken as it moves northeast as the high pressure slides east a bit. The Thermal trough will also start lifting to the north and will be over the Upper Yukon Flats. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Not much has changed over the last week as stratus continues to hang over the area with the east to northeast flow over the Coast and Plains. The Brooks Range will continue to see just partly to mostly cloudy conditions with a few showers. Winds 10 to 20 mph from most areas. Expect some patchy fog, but no dense fog issues expected. A few flurries possible. The 28/2100Z GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR Probability products have changed little over the last 10 days with MVFR/IFR conditions indicated over all but the Brooks Range. SPoRT Satellite products show stratus in the same area as the GOES products indicate, and current observations show 400 to 900 foot ceilings. Ceilings may arbitrarily lift for short periods. No significant change in temperatures expected. West Coast and Western Interior...Today the Interior will be the active area with thunderstorms and showers developing if they have not already. Primary area for thunderstorms will be the Middle Yukon and Upper Kuskokwim River Valleys. Heavy showers, small hail, and gusty winds may occur with thunderstorms. The thunderstorm activity will slide north a bit tomorrow as a weather front moves to the lower Yukon Delta by afternoon spreading showers inland and north to the Seward Peninsula by late afternoon. Patchy morning fog in the Lower Yukon Delta will reduce visibility. Winds mainly east to south at 5 to 15 mph today will increase along the coast to around 25 mph as the front moves through the area. Temperatures cooling slightly as the front moves through. Central and Eastern Interior...Quiet this evening, then increased clouds developing during the day Tuesday with increased potential for shower and thunderstorms as the Thermal Trough and front push north to the Upper Yukon Flats. Rivers remain high, see below for details. Winds generally light. No significant change in temperatures through Wednesday. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A strong weather front will move to the Bering Strait Friday morning bringing elevated seas and potential for High Surf to the area. && .Fire Weather...Thunderstorms will be the primary concern as the Thermal Trough and front move north across the area to the Upper Yukon Flats Tuesday and Wednesday. Relative Humidity values will continue to slowly fall through midweek bottoming out at around 20 percent for most Interior locations Wednesday. As the front moves through Relative humidity values will rise in most interior locations to above 30 percent, the exception will be in the Upper Tanana Valley from Delta Junction to the AlCan Border. Winds may increase to around 20 mph as the front moves across the Alaska Range, otherwise most areas will have winds less than 10 mph with some gusts to 15 mph during the afternoons. High temperatures will remain in the 60s for the most part in the interior. For the latest Fire Weather information go to www.weather.gov/arh/fire. && .Hydrology...Rivers overall have continued to fall the last 24 to 36 hours, but remain elevated above normal levels. Breakup continues in the Arctic and ice dam that had backed up water on the Sag River released and water levels fell, otherwise no significant activity reported for the Arctic Rivers. For the latest breakup and flooding information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Models not singing the same tune, so will lean on the Ensemble/WPC solutions for the extending periods. Expect some afternoon thunderstorms and showers in the Interior with low stratus ceilings in the Arctic, and a weather front will move to the West Coast Saturday night spreading showers up the coast and into the Western Interior Monday. Warmer temperatures in the Central and Eastern Interior with no significant change in temperatures elsewhere. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210. && $$ SDB MAY 18  FXAK69 PAFG 292031 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1231 PM AKDT Tue May 29 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...Thunderstorm activity will shift north a bit today and the highest activity will be in the vicinity of a line from just east of Point Hope to Kiana to Ambler to Ruby to Nenana to Salcha to Chicken and east with scattered to isolated showers extending out further from the line. The line will shift a bit more north and east Wednesday. A weather front is moving into the Lower Yukon Delta and will spread showers east to the Upper Kuskokwim Valley today and the Southern Seward Peninsula tonight with the front stretching out. A second front will move into the coastal areas by Wednesday evening. No change in the Arctic as low ceilings and some snowfall create potential travel issues. Models...Solutions are similar in the short term, but as has been the trend, extended solutions leave a lot to be desired. 29/12Z surface solutions initialized well against the 29/18Z analysis with similar pressures and locations of the major features, including the Thermal Trough. Stability indicies are highest in the Noatak Region with around -5 Lifted Indicies, and CAPE values approaching 500 J/kg that will persist until late in the night, while the remainder of the area will still have negative Lifted Indicies to -5, and CAPE values up to 175 J/kg. Precipitable water values range from 0.30 inch in the Fortymile and Alaska Range to 0.60 inch in the Middle Yukon and Upper Noatak/Kobuk. Leaning toward an equal blend for most elements with just a nudge to the temperature grids to maintain continuity. WPC/Ensemble forecasts will be primary in the extended periods as the deterministic solutions continue to struggle. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Low that was over the Yukon Territory yesterday has undercut the ridge and is now between Coal Creek and Circle at 546 dam. The ridge over the Arctic has moved southeast with the 553 dam center over Kaktovik with weak ridging extending southwest to Tanana, southeast along the Yukon/Northwest Territories Border, and northwest into the high Arctic. Broad low persists over the Bering Sea with center just east of the Dateline over the Central Bering Sea. By Wednesday morning the low over the Eastern Interior will move to Atigun Pass at 542 dam, the Ridge will slide southeast to the Northwest Territories at 553 dam, but ridging will persist over the offshore waters, and builds southwest over the Southeast Interior. The low over the Bering Sea will move northeast to St Matthew Island at 526 dam as it spins several wave north over the West Coast, and starts moving to the southeast, then merges with a developing low over the Northeast Pacific. The low near Atigun Pass will move over Nuiqsut by Thursday morning at 541 dam as ridging builds in to the south over the interior and Brooks Range. The low remains stationary into Friday before moving west to merge with a low in the Siberian Arctic. At 850 hpa...Above 0C Temperatures over all but the southwest mainland, Southern Seward Peninsula, and St Lawrence Island. 0C isotherm will push back west over the Coast Friday. Much warmer temperatures pushing east into the interior this weekend with with +10C isotherm pushing west over the Eastern Interior east of Fairbanks and south of Circle. Surface...High pressure remains over the Arctic with a 1021 mb center over the Northern Beaufort Sea and ridging extending southwest over the Chukchi Sea. Broad area of low pressure over the interior with Thermal Trough lying from Noatak to Huslia to Fairbanks and east, with another branch from McGrath to Fairbanks. Bubble high remains over Eastern Norton Sound at 1008 mb. Broad low over the Bering Sea in centered near the Dateline with a 985 mb center. By Wednesday morning the high in the Beaufort will move south over the Northwest Territories with ridging lying along 74N, then dipping southwest across the Chukchi Sea. The thermal trough will slide north to lie from Cape Lisburne to Bettles to Chalkyitsik, and the low in the Bering Sea will move to St Matthew Island at 991 mb, while ridging will build northwest into the Southcentral area and Copper River Basin. The Thermal Trough will shift to lie from Cape Lisburne to Allakaket to Central to to Beaver Creek YT Thursday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A few coastal locations are getting a break from the low stratus, but as the high to the east moves southeast stratus will move back into those areas this evening. As the week goes on expect some substantial clearing, especially in the Plains as much warmer temperatures are expected. Afternoon thunderstorms and showers will continue in the Brooks Range. Patchy fog in a few locations along the coast, and a few flurries possible. The 29/1930Z GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR Probability products have changed little over the last 10 days with MVFR/IFR conditions, but today they show the stratus is dissipating over the southern plains areas. SPoRT LEO 24 hr Microphysics product at 29/1731Z shows the stratus has diminished in extent over the area, and there may be some clearing has been reported from Barrow east today along the coast. Current observations show 400 to 900 foot ceilings. No significant change in temperatures expected. West Coast and Western Interior...More thunderstorms today mainly in the inland areas from Noatak to Ambler to Ruby. Thunderstorms expected to last well into the evening, and may even persist overnight north and east of Ambler. Showers expected over most of the area north and east of Kaltag this evening. Front is spreading showers to the Lower Yukon Delta and will spread them north to the Southern Seward Peninsula tonight. Wednesday thunderstorms will primarily be confined to areas north of Huslia with isolated to scattered showers over the remainder of the area. Patchy morning fog in the Lower Yukon Delta will reduce visibility. Winds mainly east to south at 5 to 15 mph today will increase along the coast to around 25 mph as the front moves through the area. Temperatures cooling a few degrees through Friday as some cooler air is pulled around the low into the area by the low. Central and Eastern Interior...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms over most of the area this evening as the Thermal Trough along the north slopes of the Alaska Range slides north to be over the Upper Yukon Flats Wednesday. Thunderstorms generally confined to areas north and east of Fairbanks on Wednesday, but would not be surprised by a wayward Thunderstorm in the Middle Tanana Valley. Winds generally light, but expect some gusts to 30 mph near the Alaska Range passes. No significant change in temperatures through Friday. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .Fire Weather...Thunderstorms remain the primary concern across the forecast area. Isolated to scattered Thunderstorms today in the vicinity of a line from Noatak to Ambler to Ruby to Nenana to Chicken. Thunderstorms shifting to the north and east Wednesday with the line lying from Cape Lisburne to Ambler to Bettles to Chalkyitsik then south along the AlCan Border to Beaver Creek YT. Just under 200 lightning strikes in the area yesterday, expect that number to increase today especially over the Upper Noatak and Kobuk Region. Relative Humidity values will recover from the teens and 20s tonight with the area of lowest values shifting northeast into the Upper Yukon Flats, and Fortymile, some lower values may linger along the north slopes of the Alaska Range through Wednesday. Moisture pushing in from the southwest with the front will keep Relative Humidity values elevated to around 30 percent in the Central Interior Thursday. Values will start falling Friday as warmer dry air pushes west into the area out of Canada. High temperatures will remain in the 60s through Friday, then jump into the 70s for the weekend in the Central and Eastern Interior south of the Yukon River. Winds near the Alaska Range gusting to around 35 mph near passes, but winds generally less than 20 mph sustained. For the latest Fire Weather information go to www.weather.gov/arh/fire. && .Hydrology...Interior rivers have settled down, but remain elevated above normal levels. Breakup continues in the Arctic and some minor ice damming has been observed on the Sag River, but they have released and moved on downstream allowing levels to fall. Much warmer temperatures expected this weekend are expected to accelerate breakup in the Arctic. For the latest breakup and flooding information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...29/12Z solutions diverge in the extended periods once again, so will lean heavily on the Ensemble Mean and WPC solutions. Much warmer temperatures pushing into the 70s in the Central and Eastern Interior, mainly south of the Yukon River. Expect isolated to scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms and showers in Interior locations. In the Arctic not expecting much change, but they may break out of the stratus for a while this weekend as the ridging weakens a bit. On the West Coast showers will be moving up the Coast as a low in the Central Bering Sea spins fronts through the area. Slightly warmer on the West Coast, while in the Arctic the Brooks Range and Plains will be much warmer than the last couple weeks with highs pushing into the 60s, while the coast will see highs around 40. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAY 18  FXAK69 PAFG 041257 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 457 AM AKDT Mon Jun 4 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...No significant change in the coverage of thunderstorm activity of the last few days, and expect it will continue through the week over most of the forecast area. Thunderstorm activity will be increased from Minto east and south to the Alaska Range today. Pressure gradient will tighten up a bit over the Upper Yukon Flats and south slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range starting Tuesday with near Red Flag conditions. Relative Humidity values falling slightly the next couple days, then rising as the temperatures in the Interior fall a few degrees starting Thursday. Pretty quiet on the West Coast with offshore flow prevailing. On the Arctic Coast stratus and fog continue to be the biggest issue, and see no change in that for most areas through mid week. Models...Biggest problem is finding the shortwaves moving west across the Eastern and Central Interior this afternoon and evening that will enhance the thunderstorm activity. Otherwise, solutions are similar aloft and at the surface through Thursday. They continue to struggle in the extended periods. 04/00Z surface solutions initialized well against the 04/06Z analysis with similar pressures and locations of the major features, including the Thermal Trough. Stability indicies between the ranges and inland from the coast remain good for showers and thunderstorms with Lifted Index numbers generally zero or -6, and non-zero CAPE values over 500 J/kg. Not going to make a bunch of changes to the current forecast database. Will expand the area of showers to most locations between the ranges, and put in some scattered thunderstorms over the Central and Eastern Interior today, and Lower Yukon Delta and vicinity tomorrow. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Broad ridging remains over the state with a 562 dam center over Banks Island and ridge axis extending southwest to Kodiak Island, and another extending west over 75N. A 541 dam low persists off the Queen Charlotte Islands, and a broad areas of lower heights persists over the Bering Sea, and Chukchi Sea. Big picture, there are no significant differences by Tuesday morning as the ridging persists with a 560 center over the Canadian Archipelago, and a 561 dam center near the Dateline along 75N, and a 554 dam center over Eagle. Troughing will extend from the Western Bering Sea to the Northeast Pacific to Northern Alberta Canada. By Wednesday morning, ridging persists over the Arctic and mainland Alaska, but weakens a bit. Troughing persists in the same general area. But a 550 dam low will develop over the Seward Peninsula. Then by Thursday we start to see a little change as trough is developing over the AlCan Border with a 545 dam low over Eagle, and the ridging will shift north over the Brooks Range as it weakens and broad area of lower heights develops over the state. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm has pushed west of all but St Lawrence Island today. +10C pushing west over the Interior generally south of the Yukon River, and east of the Nulato hills. Area expands north into the Upper Koyukuk River Basin Tuesday, and southwest into the Lower Yukon Delta. Temperatures will cool a few degrees starting Thursday. Surface...High pressure remains over the Arctic with a 1033 mb center over the Northwest Territories and ridging extending over Banks Island, then west along 75N with a 1025 mb center developing 300 nm north of Point Barrow this morning. A 1008 mb low remains near the North Pole. High pressure remains over the northeast Pacific with a 1015 mb center in the Gulf of Alaska. Thermal trough over the southern Interior extends from the Upper Tanana Valley to Ruby, and southwest to the Lower Yukon Delta. Band of low pressure lies from a 997 mb low near Northern Kamchatka to a 997 mb low near Nikolski to a 1000 mb low in the Northeast Pacific to a 999 mb low over Alberta Canada. There is no significant change in the big picture pattern through Wednesday, but the features strengthen a bit over the Arctic, and mainland with the pressure gradient tightening up a bit over the Brooks Range, and generally north of the Yukon River. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus and fog, then more stratus and more fog in the coastal areas with clearing and much warmer temperatures when you get 5 to 15 miles inland from the coast. Flood Advisories continue for the Sagavanirktok and Kuparuk Rivers. Much warmer temperatures will continue inland and in the Brooks Range while the coastal areas will see temperatures fairly steady in the 30s. The 04/0900Z GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR Probability products have not changed significantly in at least 10 days with MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions, but they are indicating more LIFR conditions than what they were last week, and observations in the coastal areas match up well with the area indicated. West Coast and Western Interior...Isolated thunderstorms and showers in the inland areas, including the Central Seward Peninsula. Coastal areas will see periods of sun and clouds, while inland areas will be mostly sunny. With the only significant change through Wednesday being an increase in thunderstorms and showers in the Lower Yukon Delta and Upper Kuskokwim River Basin Tuesday. Temperatures in the inland areas will rise into the 70s today while coastal areas will range from the lower 40s on the Outer Capes and St Lawrence Island to the mid 60s on the Norton Sound Coast. Temperatures a couple degrees warmer on Tuesday, then cooling a couple degrees on Wednesday. Flow will continue to be offshore with winds generally less than 15 mph through Wednesday. Central and Eastern Interior...Scattered to isolated thunderstorms and showers today, with isolated thunderstorms and showers the remainder of the week. Expect thunderstorm development mainly after noon, with some lingering into the early morning hours. Heavy downpours with up to 1/2 inch of rainfall, and gusty winds will accompany most of the showers, with some producing small hail as well. Thermal trough will persist over the Southern Interior, with light winds today. Winds increasing to around 15 mph in the Upper Yukon Flats and along the south slopes of the Brooks Range Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures a couple degrees warmer today, then about the same on Tuesday before cooling a few degrees on Wednesday and Thursday. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .Fire Weather...Widespread isolated thunderstorms activity from the Brooks Range to the Alaska Range, and from the AlCan Border to the West Coast. No significant change in lightning activity through Tuesday. Some scattered thunderstorms from Minto East, and south to the Alaska Range during the afternoon and evening today. Scattered thunderstorms south of Kaltag and west of Minchumina Tuesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures in the 70s for most interior locations. Winds less than 15 mph today. Winds in the Upper Yukon Flats and along the south slopes or the Eastern Brooks Range will increase on Tuesday with winds near 15 mph gusting to 25 mph. Relative humidity values will fall into the 20s again today with a few teen values along the North Slopes of the Alaska Range. Relative Humidity will continue to be good with maximum values above 60 percent. Slightly drier Tuesday and Wednesday with values generally in the mid 20s to upper teens. Expect near Red Flag conditions in Fire Weather zones 218 and 220 from Tuesday through at least Friday during the late afternoon and early evening hours. For the latest Fire Weather information go to www.weather.gov/arh/fire. && .Hydrology...Breakup on the Arctic Plain and Coast continues. Flood advisories remain in place for the Sagavanirktok (Sag) River, and Kuparuk River as the risk for minor flooding continues. Temperatures 5 to 15 miles inland from the coast are much warmer that the coast with highs in the 50s to 60s and lows remaining above freezing. In the coastal zone, the temperatures are only warming into the upper 30s. Slightly cooler temperatures will move into the area midweek, but will not slow the melting significantly. For the latest breakup and flooding information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Well not much has changed concerning model performance. In general there will be ridging over the Western Arctic with troughing over the Eastern Arctic. Weak ridging extending from Canada to the Western Interior will dominate between the Ranges. A low will persist in the Northeast Pacific. A low will also persist over St Lawrence Island. In general we can expect seasonal weather in the interior with isolated to scattered showers during the afternoon and evening with some lingering to the early morning hours. On the Arctic Coast, stratus and fog will continue to be a problem, and may impact travel in the area. On the West Coast expect some periods of low clouds, and isolated showers as weak waves spinning around the low over St Lawrence Island move north across the area. Temperatures in the Central and Eastern Interior, and the Arctic Plains will cool a few degrees starting Thursday, while the temperatures on the West Coast will warm a few degrees. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SDB JUN 18  FXAK69 PAFG 051130 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 330 AM AKDT Tue Jun 5 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...Thunderstorm coverage will again be range to range, and just inland to the AlCan Border. The challenge will be figuring out where significant activity will occur. At this point it looks like a band of scattered thunderstorm activity will lie over zones 224, 223, 222, 221, 225, 227, as well as southern 216, 215, and 214. Also, a small area in northern 212, and east of Buckland in zone 210. Pressure gradient will tighten up a bit east of Arctic Village and northeast of Fort Yukon today with winds picking up to around 15 mph with near Red Flag Conditions developing in the afternoon. Relative Humidity values falling slightly the next couple days, then rising as the temperatures in the Interior fall a few degrees starting Thursday. Pretty quiet on the West Coast with offshore flow prevailing. On the Arctic Coast river breakup, and the stratus and fog continue to be the biggest issues, and see no change in that through at least Friday. Models...05/00Z solutions are in good agreement through 60 hours or so, then start diverging with the biggest difference showing up over the Arctic with a couple waves that will move southeast to the coast Friday and Saturday. Extended solutions continue to perform poorly. 05/00Z surface solutions initialized well against the 05/06Z analysis with similar pressures and locations of the major features, including the Thermal Trough. Stability indicies between the ranges and inland from the coast remain good for showers and thunderstorms with Lifted Index numbers generally zero to -6, and CAPE values to 500 J/kg. Precipitable Water values of 0.25 to 0.95 inch extend from the Upper Tanana Valley to the Middle Yukon Valley and Lower Yukon Delta the next couple day. Will use an equal blend of solution and the current database for most elements. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Broad ridging remains north of the Alaska Range with a 562 dam center near Wrangel Island, a 556 dam center over the Eastern Brooks Range, a 556 center 200 nm north of Demarcation Point. A band of lower high lies to the south extending from a 540 dam low near northern Kamchatka, to a 531 dam low 200 nm south of Sand Point, to a 537 dam low 400 nm south of Cordova, then northeast over the Panhandle. By Wednesday morning ridging persists, but weakens as the ridging gets pinched by a 546 dam low pushing south toward Wrangel Island, and a 551 dam low developing over Norton Sound. There is no significant change in the troughing to the south, and short waves moving in the flow around the low in the Northeast Pacific will move west over the Alaska Range, and may extend north into the Southern Interior, but timing the waves is very difficult. By Thursday morning the ridging weakens significantly as troughing develops over the AlCan Border with a 544 dam low near Eagle and trough extending north to high in the Canadian Archipelago. At 850 hpa...Temperatures in the forecast area are all above 0C today with the +10C isotherm pushing west over the Tanana Valley to Tanana, the Upper Yukon River Valley upstream of Circle, and the Alaska Range east of Denali. 0C isotherm will push south over the Central Arctic Coast by Wednesday afternoon, with the +10C isotherm pushing west over the Middle Yukon And Upper Kuskokwim River Valleys. By Thursday the 0C isotherm will push a bit further south over the Arctic Plains and most of the Central and Eastern Arctic Coast, while the =10C isotherm will shift a bit north as it pushes northwest into the Interior Seward Peninsula. Surface...High pressure remains over the Arctic with a 1028 mb center near 80N and the Dateline and ridging extending southeast over Banks Island. Broad area of low pressure around the Thermal Trough over mainland Alaska. Thermal trough lies along the north slopes of the Alaska Range from the Kuskokwim Valley to the Upper Tanana Valley with a secondary branch extending from the Middle Tanana Valley to the Noatak Valley. Through Thursday the only significant changes will be high pressure over the Arctic pressing south as a 1029 mb center moves to 400 nm north of Point Barrow by Thursday afternoon, and a 1003 mb low develops over Norton Sound. The pressure gradient will compress over the Brooks Range and southern Chukchi Sea producing gusty winds near the Brooks Range, and strong winds in the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...No significant changes next 24 to 48 hours as stratus and fog will persist over the same coastal areas. Inland areas will continue to see clearing, and isolated thunderstorms and showers can be expected in the Brooks Range during the afternoons and evenings. Temperatures near the coast continue to be cool with temperatures in the 30s. As you get inland 5 to 15 miles temperatures will be much warmer under mostly sunny conditions with highs in the 50s and 60s with lows generally above freezing. Cooler temperatures as the week continues, but inland areas will still be much warmer than the coastal areas. Flood Advisories continue for the Colville and Kuparuk Rivers. The 05/0930Z GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR Probability products have not changed significantly in at least 10 days. Observations in the coastal areas match up well with the area indicated. West Coast and Western Interior...Most activity will be inland from the coast and in the Interior areas with Thunderstorms and showers developing through the day. Heavy downpours with up to 0.50 inch of rainfall, small hail generally less than 0.50 inch, and gusty winds to 35 mph will accompany the strongest thunderstorms. Weak offshore flow will continue, expect Sea Breeze development in the coastal zone (within 10 miles of the coast) during the afternoon hours with a return to offshore flow overnight. Temperatures in the inland areas rising into the 70s today while coastal areas will range from the lower 40s on the Outer Capes and St Lawrence Island to the mid 60s on the Norton Sound Coast. Central and Eastern Interior...Scattered to isolated thunderstorms and showers again today with no change in sight the remainder of the week. Expect thunderstorm development mainly after noon, with some lingering into the early morning hours. Heavy downpours with up to 0.50 inch of rainfall, small hail generally less than 0.50 inch, and gusty winds to 35 mph will accompany the strongest thunderstorms. Thermal trough will persist over the Southern Interior with generally light winds south of the Yukon River. Winds increasing to around 15 mph east of Arctic Village, and northeast of Fort Yukon today and Wednesday. Temperatures a couple degrees warmer today, then a couple degrees cooler Wednesday and Thursday. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .Fire Weather...Widespread isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity from range to range, and from just inland on the West Coast to the AlCan Border. Thunderstorms will be wet with Precipitable Water values from 0.25 to 0.95 inch. Lightning activity through expected to be slightly higher today with a broad band of scattered thunderstorms south of a line from Eagle to Fort Yukon to Tanana to Holy Cross to Mountain Village. There is also a small area of enhanced activity expected east of Buckland in zone 210, and north of Shaktoolik in zone 212. Temperatures in the 70s for most interior locations. Winds less than 15 mph in most areas, except winds east of Arctic Village, and northeast of Fort Yukon increasing to around 15 mph with Near Red Flag conditions developing during the afternoon hours. Relative humidity values will fall into the 20s to lower 30s again today with a few teen values in the Tanana Valley, and the Upper Yukon Flats. Relative Humidity recovery will continue to be good with maximum values above 60 percent. For the latest Fire Weather information go to www.weather.gov/arh/fire. && .Hydrology...Rivers on the Arctic Plain and Coast continue through the breakup process. Flood advisories remain in place for the Colville River, and Kuparuk River as the risk for minor flooding continues. Temperatures 5 to 15 miles inland from the coast are much warmer than the coast with highs in the 50s to low 70s and lows generally above freezing. In the coastal zone, the temperatures will only warm into the upper 30s. Slightly cooler temperatures will push south over the Coast and Plains starting Wednesday, but will not slow the melting significantly through Thursday. For the latest breakup and flooding information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Model solutions continue to perform poorly in the extended periods, but thankfully we are in a reasonably predictable pattern in the interior. Expect a continuation of the thunderstorms and showers between the ranges from the Western Interior to the AlCan Border. A weather front will move to the Central and Eastern Arctic Coast Saturday bringing some relief from the low ceilings and fog, but brining some snow to areas east of Prudhoe Bay Saturday night and early Sunday. No significant change on the West Coast as weak offshore slow will persist. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Advisories for portions of AKZ203. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB JUN 18  FXAK69 PAFG 061208 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 408 AM AKDT Wed Jun 6 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...Not much change for the short term, thunderstorm coverage will again be range to range, and just inland to the AlCan Border. Area of highest activity will extend from the Upper Tanana Valley south of Fairbanks along the Western Alaska Range, and most of the Western Interior areas. Pressure gradient has tighten up a bit east of Arctic Village and northeast of Fort Yukon today with winds around 15 mph and near Red Flag conditions in the afternoon. Relative Humidity values slightly lower today, but starting to rise Thursday. Pressure gradient has also tightened over the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait with Small Craft Advisories issued. In the western interior/inland areas expect thunderstorms and showers to develop again today. On the Arctic Coast river breakup, and the stratus and fog, continue to be the biggest issues, and see no change in that through at least Friday. There is a significant winter like storm that will be moving to the Arctic Coast and Brooks Range Saturday night. Models...06/00Z solutions are in good agreement through 72 hours before they start diverging, but they still show similar tendencies through 132 hours before they jump all over in the Arctic. 06/00Z surface solutions initialized well against the 06/06Z analysis with similar pressures and locations of the major features, including the Thermal Trough, and continue in good agreement through around 60 hours before diverging. Lifted Indicies range to around -4, and CAPE values to 400 J/kg. Precipitable Water values of 0.30 to 0.85 inch with the highest values in the Middle Yukon River Valley. Going to use an equal blend of solutions and the current database for most elements to maintain continuity. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Broad ridging continues over most of the state with a 554 dam center 200 nm north of Wainwright and a ridge axis extending southeast over Eagle into the Yukon Territory. A band of lower heights lies to the south of the state extending from a 551 dam low over northern Kamchatka, to a 544 dam low 150 nm north of Shemya to a 527 dam low 600 nm south of Seward, then northeast over the Panhandle. A 554 dam high has moved over the northern Bering Sea Coast with a 553 dam center over St Matthew Island. A 547 dam low will develop over Norton Sound this morning, then swing west over St Lawrence Island By Thursday morning with a trough extending southeast to the low in the Northeast Pacific. Short waves will continue to move west over the Alaska Range, and may extend north into the Southern Interior, but timing the waves remains very difficult. By Thursday morning the ridging weakens as troughing develops over the AlCan Border with a 544 dam low near Eagle and trough extending north to a 531 dam low high in the Canadian Archipelago. By Friday morning a large col will develop over the state with weak troughing extending from weak troughing over the Beaufort Sea over the AlCan Border to a 532 dam low in the Northeast Pacific, and weak ridging extending the Siberian Arctic near the Dateline over the West Coast to ridging over the North Pacific. At 850 hpa...Temperatures in the forecast area are all above 0C today with the +10C isotherm pushing west over the Middle Yukon And Upper Kuskokwim River Valleys. By Thursday the 0C isotherm will be pushed south over the Arctic Plains and most of the Central and Eastern Arctic Coast, while the +10C isotherm will shift a bit north as it pushes northwest into the Interior Seward Peninsula. Much colder temperatures will dive south over the Arctic Coast, Brooks Range, and into the Central and Eastern Interior this weekend. Surface...High pressure remains over the Arctic with a 1030 mb center near 80N and the Dateline and ridging extending southeast over the Arctic Plains and Central Brooks Range. Broad area of low pressure around the Thermal Trough over mainland Alaska. Thermal trough remains along the north slopes of the Alaska Range from the Kuskokwim Valley to the Upper Tanana Valley with a secondary branch extending from the Middle Tanana Valley to the Noatak Valley. Not much change through Thursday morning, but the high will move to 400 nm north of Point Barrow at 1024 mb, and the pressure gradient will tighten up over the Brooks Range, and the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait. 987 mb low remains in the Northeast Pacific. By Friday morning, not much change, but the high moves to 200 nm north of Point Barrow at 1025 mb, and a 1003 mb low will move over the Seward Peninsula enhancing the already compressed pressure gradient over the Chukchi Sea. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus and fog continues to be the biggest issue along the coast. Expect some isolated thunderstorms and showers in the Brooks Range. Not seeing much change to that scenario through Friday. Temperatures near the coast continue to be cool with temperatures in the 30s, and as you move inland temperatures will be much warmer. Temperatures will start cooling later today as cooler air aloft moves south over the Coast and Plains. Flood Advisories continue for the Colville and Kuparuk Rivers. The 06/1130Z GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR Probability products still have not changed significantly in at least 10 days. Visible Satellite imagery shows more stratus moving west over the coast. Observations in the coastal areas match up well with the area indicated and show ceilings in the 200 to 700 foot range. Winter like weather system will move to the Central and Eastern Arctic Coast and Brooks Range Saturday night. West Coast and Western Interior...Another day with much of the activity inland with Thunderstorms and showers developing through the day. No change expect in the intensity of the thunderstorms as heavy downpours with up to 0.50 inch of rainfall, small hail generally less than 0.50 inch, and gusty winds to 35 mph. Weak offshore flow south of the Bering Strait, so expect Sea Breeze development in the coastal zone (within 10 miles of the coast) during the afternoon hours, with a return to offshore flow overnight. Pressure gradient has tightened over the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait with winds to 30 mph. Temperatures in the inland areas rising into the 70s today while coastal areas will range from the lower 40s on the Outer Capes and St Lawrence Island to the mid 60s on the Norton Sound Coast. Central and Eastern Interior...Another round of thunderstorm and shower activity, but not as intense as Tuesday. Thunderstorm activity will be confined to the Southern Interior, mainly south of Fairbanks. Thunderstorm development mainly after noon, with some lingering into the early morning hours. Heavy downpours with up to 0.25 inch of rainfall, small hail generally less than 0.50 inch, and gusty winds to 35 mph may accompany the strongest thunderstorms. Thermal trough remains over the Southern Interior with generally light winds south of the Yukon River. Winds to around 15 mph east of Arctic Village, and northeast of Fort Yukon today. Temperatures a couple degrees cooler today and Thursday. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .Fire Weather...Widespread isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity from range to range, and from just inland on the West Coast to the AlCan Border continues. Thunderstorms will continue to be of the wet variety with Precipitable Water values from 0.25 to 0.95 inch. Lightning activity Tuesday was double Mondays, but expect it will fall back to the Monday level of around 2500 strikes today. Area of highest activity will extend from the Upper Tanana Valley south of Fairbanks along the Western Alaska Range, and most of the Western Interior areas. Temperatures in the 70s for most interior/inland locations. Winds less than 15 mph with the exception of the area east of Arctic Village, and northeast of Fort Yukon where winds will be around 15 mph with near Red Flag conditions during the afternoon hours today and Thursday. Relative humidity values falling into the 20s to lower 30s again today with a few teen values in the Tanana Valley, and the Upper Yukon Flats. Relative Humidity recovery will continue to be good with maximum values above 60 percent. For the latest Fire Weather information go to www.weather.gov/arh/fire. && .Hydrology...Rivers of concern at this time continue to be the Colville, and Kuparuk with the Kuparuk running near flood stage, but currently falling. The Colville has been reported to be falling with ice flowing through, but a jam can occur at any time, so Flood Advisories remain in place for both rivers. Melting and runoff will slow the remainder of the week as temperatures cool. For the latest breakup and flooding information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Extended solutions performing poorly, but there is agreement on a strong cold front moving to the Central and Eastern Arctic Coast Sunday with winter like temperatures and weather from Wainwright east over most of the Arctic and Brooks Range. Potential for heavy snow with 4 to 6 inches of snow Sunday morning through Monday afternoon with temperatures in the 20s to lower 30s, and winds turning from the northwest to north at 15 to 30 mph. South of the Brooks Range, cold air will dive into the Central and Eastern Interior, and Sunday night into Wednesday temperatures north of Fairbanks will be significantly cooler with highs in the 50s, and lows in some of the low lying areas falling to around freezing. Thunderstorms and showers will accompany the front as it moves into the area, mainly from Fairbanks east. The West Coast and Western Interior will be relatively quiet as high pressure builds southeast over the area. Expect some stratus and fog in the Chukchi Sea and Kotzebue Sound, otherwise offshore flow will keep conditions partly cloudy. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Advisories for portions of AKZ203. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB JUN 18  FXAK69 PAFG 071205 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 405 AM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...Thunderstorms and showers from range to range and just inland to the AlCan Border. Most active areas will be Fortymile Country, and out west in the Middle Yukon Valley. Relative Humidity values slightly higher today. Strong pressure gradient continues over the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait with Gale Warning and Small Craft Advisories issued. In the western interior/inland areas expect scattered thunderstorms and showers to develop again today. On the Arctic Coast the stratus has lifted a bit, but remains over the area, and visibilities have improved over the last few days. Kuparuk River remains high with Flood Advisory in effect, and expect that may continue through the weekend. Models continue to build a strong winter like storm near the North Pole that will dive south to the Arctic Coast and Brooks Range Saturday night. Several inches of snow may fall in the Eastern Brooks Range and on the Eastern Arctic Coast, along with strong winds and unseasonably cooler temperatures. Models...07/00Z solutions are in fair agreement through 54 hours with the weak pattern aloft. They improve through 120 hours and are in good agreement, especially with dropping the low from the North Pole over the Beaufort Sea by Sunday morning. The ECMWF and GFS diverge quite a bit after that with the orientation of the features, so for the extended periods used a blend leaning toward the ECMWF. 07/00Z surface solutions initialized well, and are in pretty good agreement through the weekend. Lifted Indicies as low as -7 today and -6 Friday in the Middle Yukon River Valley, with CAPE values to 500 J/kg. Precipitable Water values of 0.30 to 0.95 inch again today with the highest values in the Middle Yukon River Valley. Will keep using the same blend as the last few days, equal blend of solutions and the current database, as that has worked out fairly well. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Broad ridging continues over most of the state with a 553 dam center near Wrangel Island and a ridge axis extending east over the MacKenzie Bay, and another extending southeast over Kotzebue Sound and the Upper Kuskokwim Valley. A trough has developed over the AlCan and Yukon Territory between a 530 dam low high in the Canadian Arctic, and a 526 dam low in the Northeast Pacific. A trough also extends northwest from the low in the Northeast Pacific to a 546 dam low over the Southwest mainland, to a 546 dam low over St Lawrence Island, to a 544 dam low over Chukotka. By Friday morning, a large col will cover most of mainland Alaska with a trough over the AlCan border and ridging pushing west over the Yukon Territory, over the Northwest mainland, and north over the Alaska Peninsula. And by Saturday morning, the pattern remains similar. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm pushes south to the Brooks range tonight and holds in the area through Saturday, then dives south into the Interior and by Monday morning it will lie from Chicken to Fairbanks to Tanana to Ambler to Point Lay with the -10C isotherm over the Central and Eastern Arctic Coast and the Arctic Plains. Surface...High pressure persists over the Arctic with a 1024 mb center 400 nm north of Wainwright with high pressure pushing south over the Arctic Plains and Central Brooks Range. Broad area of low pressure around the Thermal Trough over mainland Alaska. Thermal trough remains along the north slopes of the Alaska Range from the Kuskokwim Valley to the Upper Tanana Valley with a secondary branch extending from the Middle Tanana Valley to the Noatak Valley. The Thermal Trough will be stationary today, then lift north tonight to lie from Eagle to Fairbanks to Teller by Friday morning. While the ridging over the Arctic will start being squeezed out as a 992 mb low moves over the North Pole into the high Arctic. By Saturday morning the Thermal Trough will be over the Upper Yukon Flats and the high pressure over the Arctic will be pushed south over the Plains as it continue to be squeezed out with the low in the high Arctic moving to 600 nm north of Demarcation Point. A weather front will come sweeping southeast across the Arctic Friday night to the Central Arctic Coast by Saturday afternoon, and the Eastern Arctic Coast by Saturday night. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Sounds like a broken record, but the stratus and fog will continue through the day over most coastal area. The 07/1000Z GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR Probability products has not changed significantly in at least 10 days and continues to indicate MVFR/IFR conditions over most of the coastal areas. Observations in the coastal areas match up well with the area indicated, and show that ceilings have lifted to 400 to 900 foot range today. More isolated thunderstorms and showers in the Brooks Range today, but not as active as the last few days. Big changes on the way this weekend as a strong storm moves to the coast Saturday afternoon through Monday and could drop up to 8 inches of snow in the Brooks Range, and around 2 inches to the remainder of the area east of Wainwright.Temperatures will cool through the weekend with lows on the coast and in the Eastern Brooks Range falling into the 20s starting Saturday. Highs will be in the 30s on the coast, falling to the lower 30s this weekend. Inland areas will also see cooler temperatures, with lows falling into the upper 30s to lower 40s, and highs in the 40s and 50s. Northeast to east winds 5 to 15 mph will turn from the north, then west Saturday increasing to 15 to 35 mph with the strongest winds along the coast east of Point Barrow. Inland winds will be 5 to 15 mph for most areas. Flood Advisory continues for the Kuparuk River, but with cooler temperatures runoff will slow and river levels are expected to slowly fall through the weekend. West Coast and Western Interior...Most activity will be inland with Thunderstorms and showers developing through the day. Thunderstorms may produce heavy downpours, small hail, and gusty winds to 35 mph again today. Weak offshore flow continues south of the Bering Strait, so expect Sea Breeze development in the coastal zone (within 5 miles of the coast) during the afternoon hours, then a return to offshore flow overnight. Tight pressure gradient remains over the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait with gusty winds to 40 mph on the Outer Capes. Generally light winds inland with winds to 15 mph on the coast. Temperatures similar today to yesterday in most areas, then cool a couple degrees for Thursday. Central and Eastern Interior...More thunderstorm activity today with more activity in the Southeastern Interior than what was out there yesterday with scattered thunderstorms. The Central Interior and Upper Yukon Flats will see just isolated activity. Heavy downpours with up to 0.25 inch of rainfall, small hail generally less than 0.50 inch, and gusty winds to 35 mph may accompany the strongest thunderstorms. Thermal trough remains over the Southern Interior with generally light winds across the Interior. Temperatures a couple degrees cooler today, and cooling through the weekend. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .Fire Weather...Another round of thunderstorms and showers across the interior, with about the same amount of activity. Areas of highest activity will be the Middle Yukon and Upper Kuskokwim Valleys, and the Fortymile Country, but isolated activity can be expected from range to range. Thunderstorms will continue to be of the wet variety with Precipitable Water values from 0.25 to 0.95 inch. Lightning activity Tuesday and Wednesday was around 7500 strikes, expect today will be similar. Temperatures in the 70s for most interior/inland locations, but a couple degrees cooler than the Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds generally less than 15 mph. Relative humidity values mainly in the 30s as they rise a little over the next few days. Relative Humidity recovery will continue to be good with maximum values above 60 percent. For the latest Fire Weather information go to www.weather.gov/arh/fire. && .Hydrology...Kuparuk River near Deadhorse running near flood stage, but currently falling. The Colville was reported as running free of ice Wednesday. Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Kuparuk. Melting and runoff are slowing as temperatures cool. For the latest breakup and flooding information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Models showing better agreement on a strong cold front moving to the Central and Eastern Arctic Coast, and the Eastern Brooks Range Sunday with winter like temperatures and weather from Wainwright east over most of the Arctic and Brooks Range. Potential for heavy snow as models indicate up to 8 inches of snow in the Eastern Brooks Range Sunday into Monday with around 2 inches in the coastal areas. In the Interior expect some showers moving southeast across the Eastern Interior Sunday night with Isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures in the Arctic will be steady in the 20s to lower 30s Sunday and Monday, then warm slowly. In the interior expect highs in the 60s with lows in the 40s. In a few locations that are traditional cold spots, like Birch Creek, Upper Salcha, Circle Hot Springs, and Central, temperatures may fall into the lower 30s. The West Coast and Western Interior will be relatively quiet as high pressure builds southeast over the area. Stratus may develop in the Chukchi Sea and Kotzebue Sound, elsewhere offshore flow will keep conditions partly cloudy. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Advisory for portion of AKZ203. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230. Gale Warning for PKZ225. && $$ SDB JUN 18  FXAK69 PAFG 301115 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 315 AM AKDT Sun Sep 30 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...Mostly clear skies will continue over the forecast area for another day, even over most of the Arctic Coast. A fairly active pattern with occasional showers brushing the southwest coast and Bering Strait remains out west as a stacked low remains in the Central Bering Sea. Models...30/00Z solutions are in very good agreement through Thursday. The biggest challenge will be the temperature forecasts as they indicate warmer air moving in, but the clear skies will bring excellent radiational cooling allowing temperatures to fall significantly at night. Solutions keep a stacked low in the Central Bering Sea with some showers moving up the coast and over St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait at times. Aloft...at 500 hpa...Strong ridging over the forecast area with a 580 dam center over Hughes this morning. A ridge axis extends northwest over Wainwright, another south over Seward and along 150W, and a weaker axis extends southeast over the Upper Tanana Valley. A 526 dam low center that was over the Western Bering Sea has moved over the Northern Kamchatka Peninsula while a 520 dam low remains over the northern Sea of Ohkotsk, and a 536 dam low has formed 300 nm south of Atka. A broad area of lower heights remains over Canada. By Monday morning the ridge remains stationary but weakens to 575 dam as the center drifts north over the central Arctic Plains. The lows near the Kamchatka peninsula merge over the northeast Sea of Ohkotsk, and the low south of the Aleutians moves near Cold Bay at 537 dam. And by Tuesday morning the ridge center moves to 300 nm north of Point Barrow at 570 dam with the axis extending southeast over Yakutat. The low near Cold Bay will weaken and dissipate, while a 506 dam low will form near near Kamchatka and move over the Western Bering Sea. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm lies outside the states boundaries. A dome of +10C temperatures continues to build over the state, mainly west of Fairbanks, and extending north over the Northwest Arctic Coast. Temperatures start cooling slowly beginning late Monday and will cool slowly through the remainder of the week. Surface...Ridge of high pressure extends from 700 nm north of Point Barrow over the Yukon Territory, and west over interior Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska. Trough of low pressure remains to the west with a 985 mb low in the Sea of Ohkotsk moving north into Siberia, a 990 mb low in the Central Bering Sea, and a 977 mb low 300 nm south of Nikolski. Leeside troughing has developed over the Arctic Plains and north of the Alaska Range. A 1034 mb center in the Arctic will move southeast to MacKenzie Bay by early Monday morning and slide southeast along the Yukon and Northwest Territories border before moving over British Columbia early Tuesday morning. The low south of Nikolski will move near Cold Bay Monday morning at 991 mb, then continues north to Nunivak Island as it weakens and eventually dissipates early Tuesday morning. A 1033 mb high will remain over the Beaufort Sea with ridging extending west along 74N as it weakens to 1029 mb Monday night. A weak thermal trough will develop over the Upper Yukon Flats with a 1017 mb center near Ft Yukon Tuesday morning. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Mostly clear conditions for most of the area. Even the 30/0745Z GOES MVFR/IFR Probability guidance is clear today! East widns over most of the area with the strongest winds along the Eastern Arctic Coast gusting to around 30 mph. Some gusty gap winds developing in the Brooks Range will kick up out of the south to 30 mph tonight through Monday. Daytime temperatures will be unseasonably warm with good cooling overnight that will allow temperatures to fall into the teens in the cooler inland areas. West Coast and Western Interior...Some clouds along the southwest coast and in the Bering Strait, otherwise mostly clear. Northeast to east winds 10 to 30 mph with the strongest winds in the Lower Yukon Delta, and near the Bering Strait. Expect some gusting winds in the Nulato Hills, and higher elevations in the Western Interior to around 20 mph. Unseasonably warm during the day with highs in the upper 50s to around 60, but cooling sharply overnight with lows near freezing in the inland areas, and around 40 along the coast. Central and Eastern Interior...Another beautiful day to get out and enjoy as highs will rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s again today for most of the Interior. Mostly clear skies will prevail so expect temperatures to cool sharply once the sun goes down with lows falling into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Northeast to east winds 5 to 10 mph today. Expect winds to kick up a little in the Upper Tanana Valley as the Tanana Valley Jet kicks in with winds around Delta Junction increasing to 30 mph gusting near 50 mph early Monday morning and remaining strong into the afternoon before diminishing Monday evening. && Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...The anomalous ridge over the area is not expected to move much. The low in the Bering Sea will erode the western flank some allowing some clouds and showers to move over the west coast, but nothing significant at this time. Expect temperatures to slowly cool through the week. It is looking like the first chance for snow in Fairbanks is at least a week away unless we get some dramatic pattern change that the models are missing. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...The remnants of Typhoon Trami will move into the southwestern Bering Sea Tuesday. Strong winds will develop in the northeast Bering Sea and Bering Strait that may produce elevated surf on St Lawrence Island Tuesday and Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY...Interior rivers remain near bankfull, but are slowly falling and that will continue with no significant precipitation expected this week. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225- PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB SEP 18  FXAK69 PAFG 301717 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 917 AM AKDT Sun Sep 30 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...High clouds over the Eastern Interior will be clearing with mostly clear skies returning over most of the forecast area, including most of the Arctic Coast. A fairly active pattern in the Bering Sea as a strong low swings fronts through the area with occasional showers brushing the southwest coast and moving northwest across St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait. Models...Solutions are in very good agreement through next weekend. The biggest challenge will be the temperature forecasts. Solutions keep a stacked low in the Central Bering Sea through Friday with occasional bands of showers moving up the coast and over St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait. Aloft...at 500 hpa...Strong ridging over the forecast area with a 578 dam center over Hughes this afternoon. A ridge axis extends northwest over Wainwright, another south over Seward and along 150W, and weaker axis extend southeast over the Upper Tanana Valley and southwest to St Matthew Island. Low center that was over the Western Bering Sea has merged with a 520 dam low over the northern Sea of Ohkotsk, and a 532 dam low has moved to 250 nm south of Dutch Harbor. A broad area of lower heights remains over Canada. By Monday morning the ridge remains stationary but weakens to 575 dam as the center drifts north over the central Arctic Plains. The lows in the northern Sea of Ohkotsk move north into Siberia, while a 502 dam low develops over northern Kamchatka and moves over the Western Bering Sea. The low south of the Aleutians moves near Cold Bay at 537 dam. And by Tuesday morning the ridge center moves to 300 nm north of Point Barrow at 570 dam with the axis extending southeast over Yakutat. The low near Cold Bay will weaken and dissipate, while a 506 dam low will form near near Kamchatka and move over the Western Bering Sea. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm lies outside the states boundaries. A dome of +10C temperatures continues to build over the state, mainly west of Fairbanks, and extending north over the Northwest Arctic Coast. Temperatures start cooling slowly beginning late Monday and will cool slowly through the remainder of the week. Surface...Ridge of high pressure extends from 700 nm north of Point Barrow over the Yukon Territory, and west over interior Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska. Trough of low pressure remains to the west with a 985 mb low in the Sea of Ohkotsk moving north into Siberia, a 990 mb low in the Central Bering Sea, and a 977 mb low 350 nm south of Dutch Harbor. Leeside troughing has developed over the Arctic Plains and north of the Alaska Range. A 1034 mb center in the Arctic will move southeast to MacKenzie Bay by early Monday morning and slide southeast along the Yukon and Northwest Territories border before moving over British Columbia early Tuesday morning. The low south of Nikolski will move near Cold Bay Monday morning at 991 mb, then continues north to Nunivak Island as it weakens and eventually dissipates early Tuesday morning. A 1033 mb high will remain over the Beaufort Sea with ridging extending west along 74N as it weakens to 1029 mb Monday night. A weak thermal trough will develop over the Upper Yukon Flats with a 1017 mb center near Ft Yukon Tuesday morning. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Mostly clear conditions for most of the area. The 30/1545Z GOES MVFR/IFR Probability guidance indicates there may be some stratus just off the central Coast. East winds over most of the area with the strongest winds along the Eastern Arctic Coast gusting to around 30 mph. Some gusty gap winds developing in the Brooks Range will kick up out of the south to 30 mph tonight through Monday. Daytime temperatures will be unseasonably warm with good cooling overnight that will allow temperatures to fall into the teens in the cooler inland areas. West Coast and Western Interior...Some clouds along the southwest coast and in the Bering Strait, otherwise mostly clear. Northeast to east winds 10 to 30 mph with the strongest winds in the Lower Yukon Delta, and near the Bering Strait. Expect some gusting winds in the Nulato Hills, and higher elevations in the Western Interior to around 20 mph. Unseasonably warm during the day with highs in the upper 50s to around 60, but cooling sharply overnight with lows near freezing in the inland areas, and around 40 along the coast. Central and Eastern Interior...Some high clouds in the area will move out with mostly clear conditions returning. overnight lows will dip down around 20 in some locations with most areas in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Winds picking up in the Upper Tanana Valley will keep that area warmer. Northeast to east winds 5 to 10 mph tonight increasing toward morning in the Upper Tanana Valley as the Tanana Valley Jet kicks in with winds around Delta Junction increasing to 30 mph gusting near 50 mph early Monday morning and remaining strong into the afternoon before diminishing Monday evening. Will issue a Wind Advisory for the area south of Birch Lake. && Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...The ridge over the area is not expected to move much. The low in the Bering Sea will erode the western flank some allowing some clouds and showers to move over the west coast, but nothing significant at this time. Expect temperatures to slowly cool through the week. It is looking like the first chance for snow in Fairbanks is at least a week away unless we get some dramatic pattern change that the models are missing. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...The remnants of Typhoon Trami will move into the southwestern Bering Sea Tuesday. Strong winds will develop in the northeast Bering Sea and Bering Strait that may produce elevated surf on St Lawrence Island Tuesday and Wednesday. && HYDROLOGY...Interior rivers remain near bankfull, but are slowly falling and that will continue with no significant precipitation expected this week. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory for AKZ223. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225- PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB SEP 18  FXAK69 PAFG 011133 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 333 AM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...Upper level ridge continues to dominate the weather pattern across Alaska. A few high clouds over the Interior, but another beautiful day is on tap. It will be a bit breezy in some areas. Strong Tanana Valley Jet winds setting up today will bring gusts near 60 mph to the Delta Junction area, and Gap winds will be developing in the Alaska Range with gusts to 55 mph expected through Tuesday afternoon. Expect some stronger winds in the hills around the interior to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. The Arctic remains relatively cloud free and that will continue through the day with strong east winds on the Eastern Arctic Coast. On the West Coast a weather front is moving northwest out of Bristol Bay and will bring increased clouds and some showers to the Lower Yukon Delta, Norton Sound, the southern Seward Peninsula, St Lawrence Island, and the Bering Strait by Tuesday morning. No significant rainfall is expected. Models...01/00Z solutions are in very good agreement through the weekend, and run to run continuity has been excellent over the past few days. The biggest challenge remains the temperature forecasts. Solutions keep a stacked low in the Central Bering Sea through Friday with occasional bands of showers moving up the coast and over St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait. Aloft...at 500 hpa...Strong ridging over the forecast area with a 578 dam center now over the Central Arctic Plains with the primary axis extending north over 155W, and south over Anchorage and the Gulf of Alaska. Low center south of the Aleutians has moved over False Pass at 536 dam and will continue north to Nunivak Island by Tuesday morning as it dissipates and merges with a 509 dam low that will move over the Western Bering Sea. The ridge will shift a bit east as the center moves to 300 nm north of Point Barrow at 569 dam and the axis extends southeast over Yakutat by Tuesday morning. A 549 dam low will develop just south of Kodiak Island Monday night and move south of the Gulf of Alaska and dissipate. Troughing will push over the southwest mainland and West Coast as the low in the Western Bering Sea moves to St Matthew Island by Thursday morning pushing the ridge axis east over the AlCan Border. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm lies outside the states boundaries. A dome of +10C temperatures, mainly west of Fairbanks, and extending north over the Northwest Arctic Coast will start cooling slowly beginning late today and will cool slowly through the remainder of the week. Surface...Ridge of high pressure extends from 700 nm north of Point Barrow over the Yukon Territory, and west over interior Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska. Trough of low pressure remains to the west with a 985 mb low in the Sea of Ohkotsk moving north into Siberia, a 990 mb low in the Central Bering Sea, and a 977 mb low 350 nm south of Dutch Harbor. Leeside troughing has developed over the Arctic Plains and north of the Alaska Range. A 1034 mb center in the Arctic will move southeast to MacKenzie Bay by early Monday morning and slide southeast along the Yukon and Northwest Territories border before moving over British Columbia early Tuesday morning. The low south of Nikolski will move near Cold Bay Monday morning at 991 mb, then continues north to Nunivak Island as it weakens and eventually dissipates early Tuesday morning. A 1033 mb high will remain over the Beaufort Sea with ridging extending west along 74N as it weakens to 1029 mb Monday night. A weak thermal trough will develop over the Upper Yukon Flats with a 1017 mb center near Ft Yukon Tuesday morning. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Mostly clear conditions continue over the area. Some stratus hanging off the coast, but it does not look like it is moving much and expect it to stay offshore for now. The 01/0900Z GOES MVFR/IFR Probability guidance indicates the stratus well offshore. East to southeast winds over most of the area with the strongest winds along the Eastern Arctic Coast gusting to around 35 mph. Some gusty gap winds in the Brooks Range have kicked up out of the south to 30 mph and will continue through most of the day. Daytime temperatures will be unseasonably warm with good cooling overnight that will allow temperatures to fall into the teens in the cooler inland areas. West Coast and Western Interior...Some clouds along the southwest coast and in the Bering Strait with showers in the Lower Yukon Delta today, spreading north to the Bering Strait tonight. No significant rainfall is expected. In the Western Interior and Kotzebue Sound region expect partly cloudy conditions today and tonight. Northeast to east winds 10 to 30 mph with the strongest winds in the Lower Yukon Delta, and along the coast from the Bering Strait south to include St Lawrence Island. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm during the day with highs in the upper 50s to around 60, but cooling sharply overnight with lows near freezing in the inland areas, and around 40 along the coast. Central and Eastern Interior...Some high clouds moving through the area, but mostly clear conditions will prevail. Highs will be in the 50s to lower 60s again today, while overnight lows will dip down around 20 in some locations with most areas in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Strong Tanana Valley Jet winds today will bring gusts near 60 mph to the Delta Junction area, and Gap winds will be developing in the Alaska Range with gusts to 55 mph expected through Tuesday afternoon. Also, expect some stronger winds in the hills around the interior to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Wind Advisory remains in effect for the area south of Birch Lake, and will issue one for the Eastern Alaska Range. && Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...The ridge over the area shifts a bit east, but will still influence the weather over the Interior. Expect a few more clouds moving over the area later in the week as the ridge shifts, but it will be dry in the Central and Eastern Interior, and over most of the Arctic. The remnants of Typhoon Trami will bring clouds and showers to areas west of Ruby through next weekend with most of the showers south of the Bering Strait. It still looks like the first chance for snow in Fairbanks is at least a week away unless we get some dramatic pattern change that the models are missing. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...The remnants of Typhoon Trami will move into the southwestern Bering Sea Tuesday. Strong winds will develop in the northeast Bering Sea and Bering Strait that may produce elevated surf on St Lawrence Island Tuesday and Wednesday. && HYDROLOGY...No current issues as rivers continue to slowly fall and no significant precipitation is in the forecast through the weekend. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ226. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225- PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB OCT 18  FXAK69 PAFG 021116 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 316 AM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...A few more days of beautiful fall weather to start the october. Temperatures will be cooling slowly through the remainder of the week. The remnants of Typhoon Trami is moving into the Central Bering Sea, and a decaying low near Nunivak will merge with it. Expect clouds and showers to continue to move north over the coast from the Bering Strait south. Strong gusty Gap winds winds in the Alaska and Brooks Ranges will diminish today. Arctic Coast will continue to be mostly clear for another day! Models...02/00Z solutions continue the trend of very good agreement and excellent run to run continuity that we have seen for at least a week now. The biggest challenge remains the temperature forecasts. Broad low pressure in the Central Bering Sea, the decaying remnants of Typhoon Trami, will continue to spin around through Friday with occasional bands of showers moving up the coast and over St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait. Ridge over mainland Alaska will shift east a bit allowing clouds to push into the Western Interior, but the Central and Eastern Interior will continue to be partly cloudy to mostly clear. No precipitation in the Central and Eastern Interior until early Monday morning. Aloft...at 500 hpa...Strong ridging remains over most of the state as center moves to 300 nm north of Point Barrow this morning at 573 dam. The ridge axis extends southeast over Yakutat and 140W. A low that moved north over False Pass yesterday is 150 nm south of Nunivak Island and will it will continue to weaken and merge with broad stacked 514 dam low that is over the Western Bering Sea late this morning. A 550 dam low will develop over Sand Point and move east and dissipate south of the Gulf of Alaska tonight. A wave moving around the low in the Bering Sea will swing around to lie from the low over Nunivak Island to King Salmon to Kodiak City by this afternoon, and by Wednesday morning is will lie over the Gulf of Anadyr and the Western Chukchi Sea. The low over the Central Bering Sea will move east to the Dateline by Thursday morning pushing lower heights over the Central Interior and a shortwave will swing around over the Lower Yukon Delta Thursday afternoon. As the low pushes east, the ridge axis will be pushed east over the AlCan Border Wednesday night and remains stationary through Thursday before slipping back to the west over the Central Interior and Central Arctic. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm remains outside the states boundaries. A dome of +10C temperatures, mainly west of Fairbanks, is moderating today with +10C temperatures hanging on over the Central Arctic Coast through the evening. The remainder of the area will see temperatures cool to around +5C by Wednesday morning. Surface...Ridge of high pressure remains over the Beaufort Sea and eastern half of the state. A 1026 mb center is 200 nm north of Demarcation Point with ridging extending west to Wrangel Island. The remnants of Typhoon Trami have moved into the Western Bering Sea and will wander around in the area through tonight, then move to 100 nm west of St Paul by Wednesday evening at 958 mb, then drifts north to 100 nm southwest of St Lawrence Island by Thursday afternoon. Leeside troughing remains over the Arctic Plains and north of the Alaska Range. The center in the Beaufort Sea will drift northwest Thursday over the northeast Arctic at 1027 mb. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Mostly clear conditions continue over the area. The 02/1030Z GOES MVFR/IFR Probability guidance indicates a couple small patches of stratus well offshore. East to southeast winds continue over the area with the strongest winds along the Eastern Arctic Coast gusting to around 40 mph. Some gusty gap winds in the Brooks Range out of the south to 25 mph will diminish this afternoon. Another day of unseasonably warm temperatures with good cooling overnight that will allow temperatures to fall into the teens in the cooler inland areas. West Coast and Western Interior...Some clouds along the southwest coast and in the Bering Strait with showers in the Lower Yukon Delta to the Bering Strait again today. No significant rainfall is expected. In most of the Western Interior and the Kotzebue Sound region partly cloudy conditions again today and tonight. Northeast to east winds 15 to 40 mph with the strongest winds in the Lower Yukon Delta, and along the coast from the Bering Strait south to include St Lawrence Island and Norton Sound. Temperatures slightly cooler today. Central and Eastern Interior...Some high clouds moving through the area mainly southwest of Fairbanks, otherwise mostly clear conditions will prevail. Highs will be in the 50s to lower 60s, while overnight lows will dip down around 20 in some locations with most areas in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Gap winds in the Alaska Range with gusts to 55 mph expected through this afternoon. && Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Solutions continue to show the ridge over the area shifting a bit east. Expect a few more clouds moving over the area as the ridge shifts, but it will be dry in the Central and Eastern Interior, and over most of the Arctic. The remnants of Typhoon Trami will bring clouds and showers to areas west of Ruby through the weekend with most of the showers south of the Bering Strait. It looks like the first chance for snow in Fairbanks will be Sunday night/Monday morning, but do not expect anything to stick as it will turn to rain later Monday morning. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...The remnants of Typhoon Trami will be in the north Central Bering Sea with strong gusty winds in the northeast Bering Sea and Bering Strait. Expect only elevated surf during this time near the Bering Strait and St Lawrence Island. && HYDROLOGY...Rivers continue to slowly fall and no significant precipitation is in the forecast through the weekend. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210. Wind Advisory for AKZ226. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ235-PKZ240- PKZ245. && $$ SDB OCT 18  FXAK69 PAFG 031215 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 415 AM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...A few more days of beautiful fall weather to start October. Temperatures will be cooling slowly through the remainder of the week. The remnants of Typhoon Trami will bring bands of clouds and showers to the West Coast the remainder of the week. Arctic Coast will continue to be mostly clear for another day, but there is some stratus over in the Canadian Arctic that appears to be moving our direction on satellite imagery! Models...03/00Z solutions bring another day of very good agreement and excellent run to run continuity that we have seen for over a week. With cooling temperatures aloft, the model temperatures are doing a little better, but the short term forecast will still be challenging. Decaying remnants of Typhoon Trami, will continue to spin around through the weekend with occasional bands of showers moving up the coast and over St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait. Ridge over mainland Alaska will shift east a bit allowing clouds to push into the Western Interior, but the Central and Eastern Interior will continue to be partly cloudy to mostly clear through Thursday. No precipitation in the Central and Eastern Interior until a least early Monday morning, and possibly not until late next week. Aloft...at 500 hpa...Monster ridge remains over most of the state even with the center now 500 nm north of Nuiqsut this morning at 567 dam. The ridge axis extends southeast over Yakutat and 140W. A low that moved over the Western Bering Sea, remnants of Typhoon Trami, have moved near the Dateline in the Central Bering Sea at 508 dam. By Thursday morning the low will move near St matthew Island, and the ridge center over the Arctic will inch to the east with the ridge axis extending south over the AlCan Border. This will allow some lower heights to push east over the Central Interior spreading some higher clouds into the area. Shortwave will continue to spin around the low sending clouds and showers north over the West Coast and the southern portion of the Western Interior. The low will drift back west along 60N Thursday night to 300 nm west of St Matthew Island, and the ridge axis will drift west as well to lie over Deadhorse to Fort Yukon to Yakutat by Friday morning. A large Col will develop over the Central and Eastern Interior by Saturday morning as the ridge center drifts southeast over the Beaufort Sea at 562 dam, and the low over the Bering Sea continues to weaken to 524 dam. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm remains outside the states boundaries with warmer air over the state that will continue to cool to through the weekend. Expect some temperatures around 0C over the Eastern Brooks Range by Wednesday afternoon, and colder air around 0C will wrap around the low over the West Coast by Friday morning. Surface...Pretty straight forward with low pressure out west, and high pressure to the east. Ridge of high pressure remains over the Beaufort Sea and eastern half of the state with a 1025 mb center is 200 nm north of macKenzie Bay and ridging extending west to Wrangel Island. Broad area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Typhoon Trami over the Bering Sea with the 958 mb low 200 nm north of Amchitka this morning. By Thursday morning the low will be 100 nm south of St Matthew Island at 962 mb and swings around to 300 nm west of the island by Friday morning at 974 mb. Leeside troughing remains over the Arctic Plains and north of the Alaska Range. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Mostly clear conditions continue. The 03/1030Z GOES MVFR/IFR Probability guidance indicates a couple small patches of stratus offshore, but nothing threatening. East to southeast winds continue over the area with the strongest winds along the Eastern Arctic Coast gusting to around 45 mph. Some gusty gap winds in the Brooks Range out of the south to 25 mph. Temperatures with slowly trend cooler the next few days. Clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the teens in the cooler inland areas. West Coast and Western Interior...A few showers and mostly cloudy conditions south of the Bering Strait, and southeast of Galena. Increased clouds in the Western Interior as the low pushes east a bit and the ridge slides east as well. No significant rainfall is expected. North of Galena in the Upper Noatak and Kobuk region, and the Kotzebue Sound region will be Partly cloudy with mainly high clouds moving through. Strongest winds will be south of the Bering Strait with east to southeast winds 30 mph gusting to 55 mph, to the north east to southeast winds 15 to 30 mph, and inland east winds 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures slightly cooler today. Central and Eastern Interior...Some high clouds moving through the area mainly southwest of Fairbanks, otherwise mostly clear conditions will prevail. Highs will be in the 50s to lower 60s, while overnight lows will dip down around 20 in some locations with most areas in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Winds northeast to southeast 5 to 15 mph except south to 35 mph gap winds in the Alaska Range. && Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...The remnants of Typhoon Trami will continue to dissipate in the Bering sea with high pressure over Interior Alaska and the Northeast Arctic. Expect strong gusty east winds on most of the Arctic Coast and some gusty Gap winds in the Eastern Brooks Range. Bands of clouds and showers will continue to move north over the West Coast, mainly south of the Bering Strait. Temperatures across the forecast area will continue to slowly cool. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...The remnants of Typhoon Trami will continue to dissipate in the Bering sea with winds gradually diminishing. No significant coastal issues are expected at this time. && HYDROLOGY...Rivers continue to slowly fall and no significant precipitation is in the forecast through the weekend. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235. Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB OCT 18