---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KEWX 131146 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 646 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019 .UPDATE... Please see the 12Z aviation forecast discussion below. && .AVIATION... Low clouds continue to slowly develop across portions of the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau early this morning. Based on satellite trends and GOES MVFR probability product, we will include a TEMPO group for MVFR cigs at DRT from 12-14Z. Otherwise, little changes have been made with VFR conditions at the remainder of the TAF sites as winds transition from light and variable to northeast along the I-35 corridor, with a southeast wind expected at DRT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2019/ SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)... The NW flow aloft pattern overhead currently will flatten by this evening while surface ridging over E TX also begins to retreat east. E/NE continental flow loses hold tonight with surface winds veering to bring onshore flow, but the mostly light winds should allow for another sub normal min temp for at least the Hill Country and Central TX. By daybreak Friday, onshore flow should increase and accelerate the advection higher dew point values near or above 70 degrees into most of the area by 15Z, before drier air aloft mixes most of them back down into the 60s. Mild temps today and tonight will give way to more typical mid-June temps mainly in the low to mid 90s Friday, but the increase wind and dew point mixing out will maintain a tolerable increase in daytime heat. LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)... Continued SSE winds at 10 to 20 mph Friday into Friday night will result in the Saturday morning min temp to reflect the more common humid morning air of mid June. Min temps in the 70s will be a mainstay for the extended forecast as a flat zonal pattern remains mostly stable through the period. Sunday through Tuesday, there is a low amplitude troughing pattern to impact mainly Central and N TX to yield low chances for thunderstorms mainly north of Hwy 90 and East of I-35. The GFS/ECM deterministic solutions are trending more amplified and unstable with this pattern, so these rain chances could be increasing in future updates. While the destabilizing trends in the model data would suggest more storms Sunday through Tuesday, the subtropical pattern S of TX appears less likely to give TX storm patterns an assist from a tropical plume as the round of thunderstorms did this past Monday. Heat index values should continue to surge higher over the weekend a few triple digit reports expected over areas south of Hwy 90 by Saturday, and most of the area reaching 100 to 105 by Sunday. With the PoPs Sunday through Tuesday remaining relatively low and the low layer moisture depth expecting to continue increasing, will assume the latter part of the extended sees a continued rise in heat index values and for there to be a threat for heat advisory conditions by early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 90 69 93 75 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 89 67 93 75 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 91 67 94 74 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 88 66 92 73 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 91 71 95 75 95 / 0 0 0 - 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 88 66 92 75 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 91 69 96 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 90 68 94 74 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 91 69 93 75 94 / 0 0 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 91 69 95 75 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 91 70 96 76 97 / 0 0 0 0 - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Aviation...Platt Short-Term/Long-Term...Oaks  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KPHI 081936 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 336 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will shift east of New England through Sunday. Meanwhile, a front remains nearly stalled to our south with a weak low pressure system off the North Carolina coast. Another area of low pressure will track into the Great Lakes region Monday into early Tuesday, with an associated cold front moving through our region during Tuesday. High pressure briefly builds in later Tuesday and Wednesday, then the next area of low pressure and associated cold front moves through Thursday. High pressure then follows for Friday and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Surface high pressure remains along the coast of the Northeast northward into eastern Canada, downstream of a rather high-amplitude midlevel ridge with an axis from Ontario southward into the Midwest. Meanwhile, a weak surface low in the Southeast remains in step with a midlevel perturbation generally cut off from the stronger flow well to the north. This fairly stagnant pattern will continue for the next 24 hours, though models are generally hinting at a northward push of the aforementioned surface low and associated midlevel vorticity maxima. Overall, this means that there should be an increase in (lower-level) cloud cover from south to north...very slowly...over the next 24 hours. The tendency for the operational models is to keep the precipitation to the south of the CWA through tonight, except for maybe our border counties with WFO AKQ. As such, lowered PoPs slightly in most areas and kept them capped at low-chance values for Talbot/Caroline/Sussex Counties and adjacent areas through the night. Any precipitation that does occur should be quite light. Main question tonight is fog formation. Agree with previous shift that the somewhat stronger winds tonight may prevent more widespread development of fog. Moreover, guidance is not overly optimistic about its development (versus, say, low stratus near/off the DE/southern NJ coasts). Cannot rule fog out entirely, but chances look too low for mention at this point. Kept forecast lows quite close to continuity. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... More of the same is in the cards for Sunday, with just a gradual shift northward with the thicker clouds, lower temperatures, and higher PoPs during the day. Models are quite hesitant in pushing the stronger lift and associated precipitation northward through the day, and this makes sense given the strength/origin of the surface high to the north. In addition, models are usually too aggressive bringing precipitation northward into retreating surface highs on the East Coast. For these reasons, either kept PoPs close to the previous forecast or reduced them somewhat (especially in the north). Thicker/lower clouds should slowly creep northward through the day and will have some impact on temperatures, though to what spatial extent remains somewhat unclear. Used a blend of continuity and the latest better-performing statistical/deterministic guidance for now. There will likely be some error with the position of the lower clouds through the day, and hourly/max temperature forecasts near this gradient are subject to larger error, as a result. A stiff east wind will redevelop during the day, and may become gusty at times by afternoon (20-25+ mph). The strongest winds will be near the coast, where temperatures will also be cooler (given the onshore flow). && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Summary...Unsettled especially Monday and Thursday. Synoptic Overview...A ridge axis to our north and east will result in surface high pressure shifting more offshore of the New England coast into Monday. A strong trough moving through the Midwest Sunday night slides across the Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday, meanwhile a lead trough looks to get absorbed into it. The trough aloft tries to take on a negative tilt later Monday as a cold front drives across our region Tuesday. The flow aloft then backs more to the west and southwest during mid-week, however the next trough is quickly arriving for Thursday with the potential for surface low development on the triple point in our vicinity. The trough aloft lingers Friday into Saturday, however surface high pressure is forecast to build in. For Sunday night and Monday...The remnants of an upper-level trough in the Ohio Valley is forecast to merge with a trough swinging across the Great Lakes region Sunday night with some additional amplification taking place on Monday. Deep-layered moisture will be in place ahead of this feature, with precipitable water values around 2 inches across our area. The flow in the lower levels will be veering with height, setting the stage for an initial shot of low- level warm air advection along with isentropic lift. This combined with the advection of much higher theta-e air and the passage of a short wave should result in a zone of heavier rain from south to north Sunday night into Monday morning. There may be limited instability therefore thunder is less certain. There may be somewhat of a lull later Monday morning into the afternoon, then another more organized round of showers and potentially embedded thunder Monday night as the cold front arrives. For the Sunday night into Monday time frame, storm motions may be such for a more south to north movement and therefore perhaps some training occurs. If this were to become realized, enhancement to the rainfall amounts will occur and therefore increasing the localized flood threat. A southeasterly low- level flow Monday could enhance the rainfall in the upslope areas of eastern Pennsylvania. For Tuesday and Wednesday...An upper-level trough moves into the Northeast and may take on a negative tilt Tuesday, with a cold front moving off the coast during the morning. This will quickly end the showers and embedded thunder, with improving conditions in the afternoon as drier air begins to advect in across the area. The flow aloft backs some for Wednesday with surface high pressure moving across the region, however the next system will already be approaching Wednesday night. Some showers may start arriving into our far southern areas later Wednesday with a warm front lifting northward and a weak surface low along it. Overall, much of this time frame is anticipated to be dry. For Thursday...The next upper-level trough amplifies into the Northeast, driving a cold front across our region during the day. Deep moisture advecting northward ahead of the front coupled with large scale ascent will result in a decent amount of showers and some thunderstorms. An onshore flow in the lowest levels though ahead of this system initially may hinder the overall instability during the day, however this will be monitored given the strength of the incoming trough as some robust convection cannot be ruled out. Drying takes place at night, especially late, as high pressure starts to build in. For Friday and Saturday...An upper-level trough will be in place, however a zone of surface high pressure is forecast to be over our area for much of this time frame. A frontal zone may be lurking to our northwest later Saturday, and depending on the timing of this feature a few showers/thunder could occur across parts of the area. For now, opted to keep much of this time frame dry at this point. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through this evening...VFR with east winds 7 to 15 kts. Some gusts to 20 kts may occur through sunset, especially at PHL and ACY. High confidence. Overnight...Mainly VFR with east to northeast winds around or below 10 kts. There is some potential for low stratus and/or fog at MIV/ACY, but confidence is low. Sunday...Mainly VFR at the Philly terminals, RDG, and ABE (but with lowering CIGs with time). MIV and ACY may have periods of sub-VFR as the lower clouds approach from the south/east. Winds easterly 7 to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts or so (potentially stronger near the coast). Outlook... Sunday night and Monday...Periods of MVFR/IFR with showers and some possible thunderstorms. Times of heavier rain will result in at least IFR visibility. East to southeast winds around 10 knots. Tuesday...MVFR/IFR with showers mainly early, then improving to VFR. Southwest winds 5-10 knots quickly becoming west to northwest and increasing to 10-15 knots with possible gusts to around 20 knots. Wednesday...VFR. East to southeast winds 5-10 knots. Thursday...Times of MVFR/IFR probable with some showers and thunderstorms. East winds around 10 knots, becoming south to southwest. && .MARINE... Onshore flow has increased today, and winds are approaching advisory levels on the NJ/DE coastal waters at this time. Seas are also approaching 5 feet. Advisory conditions will commence and progress northward overnight, likely reaching all Atlantic waters after midnight. Have moved up the timing of the advisory for the northern New Jersey waters given the faster timing of the simulated winds in today's deterministic model runs. Advisory conditions will continue through tomorrow as well, with gusts approaching 30 kts at times and seas generally 5 to 8 feet. Winds will likely reach advisory criteria on lower Delaware Bay this evening and are expected to begin on upper Delaware Bay on Sunday morning, continuing through the day before diminishing late. Have issued advisories for Delaware Bay based on this expected timing as well. There is a chance of fog again tonight, though seemingly lower than last night. Will monitor this closely. There is also a chance of showers tonight and Sunday, mainly for Delaware Bay and the Delaware coastal waters. Outlook... Sunday night through Tuesday...Small Craft Advisory conditions expected, however the winds are expected to be below 25 knots Monday and Tuesday. It will take awhile for the seas to subside below 5 feet. Delaware Bay should remain below advisory criteria. Wednesday and Thursday...Small Craft Advisory conditions look to begin Wednesday night or Thursday. The wind gusts may remain just below advisory criteria, however seas on the ocean are forecast to reach or exceed 5 feet on Thursday. Rip Currents... The risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents is moderate through this evening. Persistent onshore flow and building seas will result in an increased risk, which should continue for Sunday. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ452-453. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ450-451. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ454-455. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ430. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ431. && $$ Synopsis...Gorse Near Term...CMS Short Term...CMS Long Term...Gorse Aviation...CMS/Gorse Marine...CMS/Gorse  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KPHI 280119 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 919 PM EDT Mon May 27 2019 .SYNOPSIS... As low pressure tracks into New York State during Tuesday, a warm front lifts across our area. A cold front then arrives Tuesday night, however it may stall near our area Wednesday into Thursday as a couple of low pressure systems move eastward along it. Low pressure is expected to strengthen and lift to our north Thursday and Thursday night, pulling a cold front across the area. Another cold front is forecast to move through later Saturday night into Sunday, followed by high pressure for early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... For the 930 PM update, just tweaked the hourly temperature, dew point and wind grids based on the current observations to keep them current, then used the LAMP guidance to blend into continuity. The shallow cumulus has just about dissipated with some cirrus moving through. Clouds will increase especially overnight, as cloud debris from a convective complex now moving into western Ohio, spreads eastward and a warm front slowly approaches from the southwest. The sea breeze front has moved into the I-95 corridor, however it is quickly weakening due to cooling surface temperatures. Otherwise, attention turns to a perturbation approaching the Mid- Atlantic and Northeast later tonight. Though the amplitude of the shortwave trough is quite small, pronounced warm advection will occur downstream. A long-lived mesoscale convective system (MCS; currently in the Midwest) will advance along and to the north of a baroclinic zone stretching from the lower Great Lakes to the northern/central Mid-Atlantic through the night, slowly diminishing in strength as nocturnal stabilization occurs and the fetch of moist/unstable air from the south/southwest diminishes with eastward extent. The MCS will approach our CWA doorstep by daybreak, with increasing cloudiness anticipated beforehand during the overnight hours. The evening hours will provide decent cooling, so that temperatures may fall somewhat below what most guidance is suggesting before readings begin to flat-line or even increase late tonight. Nevertheless, did warm temperatures somewhat from the previous forecast, and if cloud cover increases faster than forecast, lows may end up several degrees warmer. Most precipitation may hold off before daybreak, but did trend PoPs upward late, mainly in our eastern/southeastern Pennsylvania counties. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The remnants of the MCS approaching the area overnight are expected to affect the region (particularly PA/NJ) early in the day. This places a great deal of uncertainty of what transpires thereafter, as the hi-res guidance suggests showers (maybe a storm) in our CWA for much or most of the morning. Should this be the case, residual cloud cover may prevent considerable warming near (and either side of) the baroclinic zone straddling the region. Some of the guidance (notably hi-res and/or NAM- based) keeps temperatures quite cool north of I- 78, which is hard to ignore given coarser/statistical model biases of warming these areas too quickly in a post-precipitation regime (particularly if a zonally-oriented front is involved). I lowered temperatures considerably to the north of I-78, and I have a feeling that the far north may be cooler than the current forecast. Meanwhile, how warm will it get in the southern CWA? Would not be surprised to see temperatures approaching 90 in the far southern CWA (which may be unaffected by the morning precipitation). I was a little hesitant to get this warm, at least until the evolution of the morning precipitation becomes clearer. Even more uncertain is temperatures in between the two regimes (i.e., generally between the I-78 and I-76 corridors). There is significant bust potential in this area, with temperatures possibly 10+ degrees colder should the baroclinic zone struggle to move northward, or 5+ degrees warmer should the front make more progress than currently anticipated. Tried to produce a sharper gradient to maximum temperatures across the CWA based on consensus of hi-res simulations, which reasonably matches consensus/national guidance and surrounding offices. With the remnants of the MCS possibly affecting the area tomorrow morning, another question mark is environment recovery once stronger diurnal heating occurs. The most likely areas for thermodynamically favorable parameters for sufficient instability for strong/severe storms is south of I-76, given the above-mentioned factors. BUFKIT soundings are quite impressive to south of the boundary, with SBCAPE 1000-2000+ J/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear 35-45 kts. Currently anticipate storms to develop to our north/west during the afternoon and approach the area tomorrow evening. Should most of the CWA see sufficient destabilization upstream of the morning precipitation, the CAPE/shear parameter space is quite favorable for severe storms. LCLs look a little high for tornadoes, especially when combined with mixed/mostly linear convective modes. Thus, damaging winds are the primary threat, though BUFKIT soundings show potentially considerable CAPE in the hail-growth layer. SPC upgraded most of the area to a slight risk of severe storms tomorrow, with an enhanced risk in most of southeast Pennsylvania. Should the progged kinematic/thermodynamic environments a la the NAM/GFS verify, this seems justified. Of course, what transpires during the morning will be key. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... An unsettle pattern continues for much of the upcoming week into the weekend, with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms, although there will be some quiet periods in between. Quiet weather returns early next week. Convection will be ongoing Tuesday evening as a frontal boundary moves down across the area from the north as low pressure moves to our northeast. This activity should diminish through the evening as daytime heating is lost and the short wave associated with it move eastward. The frontal boundary will likely stall near the area into Wednesday and Wednesday night as several waves of low pressure move along the boundary. As multiple rounds of short waves/vorticity impulses aloft move across the area within the northwest-west flow aloft, showers and thunderstorms will continue in the forecast through Wednesday night, although it will not rain the entire time. The higher probabilities will be tied to the passages of the short waves. By Thursday, the frontal boundary is expected to begin lifting to our north as an area of low pressure moves along the boundary to our north as well. As the low pulls to our northeast across New England Thursday night into Friday morning, it will pull a cold front across the east coast. More showers and thunderstorms are expected again Thursday into Thursday night. Dry weather is forecast to return for later Friday into Saturday as high pressure briefly builds across the northeast and into our area. However, showers may begin to develop during the afternoon Saturday as return flow develops and a short wave moves across the area. Also, another cold front is currently forecast to move toward the area on later Saturday into Sunday, which could bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the area. Once the cold front moves offshore, high pressure then builds back into the area for Monday and Tuesday of next week, which should provide nice weather. Temperatures through most of the extended period are forecast to be above normal, with Thursday potentially being the warmest day. Temperatures may return back close to normal early next week as high pressure moves in from the northwest. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR with mainly higher level clouds increasing overnight. Some showers may be approaching RDG/ABE toward daybreak. Mainly light and variable winds, becoming light southeasterly near daybreak. Tuesday...Some showers (perhaps thunder) in the morning, particularly in PA/NJ with times of MVFR probable especially at RDG, ABE and TTN. Any sub-VFR conditions should improve during the afternoon to VFR with winds becoming south or southwest 7-12 knots with locally higher gusts. Some additional showers and thunderstorms should develop into the area toward late afternoon, however confidence on coverage and location remains low. OUTLOOK... Tuesday night...Generally VFR conditions outside of showers and thunderstorms which could temporarily lead to lower conditions. Winds expected to be southwest Tuesday evening, then shifting to northwest overnight. Wednesday-Wednesday night...Generally VFR conditions expected, although showers and thunderstorms remain possible, especially Wednesday afternoon and evening. Winds shift to southwest early and may gust around 15 knots during the day. Thursday-Thursday night...Generally VFR, except lower conditions possible with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and night. Southwest winds may gust 15-20 knots during the day Thursday. Friday-Saturday...Generally VFR. Winds shift to the northwest and may gust 20-25 knots during the day. && .MARINE... Sub-advisory winds/seas are expected through Tuesday morning. There is a chance for southerly winds to approach advisory levels by Tuesday afternoon, but given the marginal gusts and brief window for occurrence, not confident enough to issue an advisory at the moment. A chance of showers exists during the morning, with increasing chances for storms during the afternoon. Should storms develop, erratic/gusty winds and locally higher waves should be anticipated in their proximity. Outlook... Tuesday night-Saturday...Conditions expected to remain below advisory levels through the period, although winds may gust around 20 knots at times. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, which could produce locally higher winds and waves should they occur. Rip Currents... The risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents remains moderate through Tuesday. A long period easterly swell is expected to continue through most of the day Tuesday, however winds are expected to become more southerly during the afternoon. Despite the more southerly wind component, wind speeds are expected to increase and this combined with the long period easterly swell should result in an elevated rip current risk. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Gorse/Robertson Near Term...CMS/Gorse Short Term...CMS Long Term...Robertson Aviation...CMS/Gorse/Robertson Marine...CMS/Gorse/Robertson  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMPX 241154 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 654 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019 Warm advective band of precip moving through this morning is split into two primary parts. One associated with the LLJ and the other the main upper forcing with the shortwave tracking across the Dakotas. The nose of the LLJ has made it into northern IA tonight, but it will slide east into southern WI through the morning. There's pretty strong model consensus we'll see around an inch of precip down along I-90, but it falls off pretty quick north of there, with a relative minima in precipitation amounts expects from southwest MN through northwest WI as these areas fall between the better forcing to the northwest and better moisture transport to the southeast. Today, showers will continue to lift northeast with a warm front, with clearing skies working in from west to east across southern MN this afternoon. How quickly this clearing moves across the area will largely determine how warm it gets. Out in the upper MN Valley, mid 70s should be no problem to achieve as the clearing arrives there first. On the other end of the spectrum, areas around Ladysmith WI will likely remain in the lower 60s under cloudy skies. In between, highs could be a few degrees warm or colder than currently forecast depending on cloud trends. Tonight, we'll have a dry feed of air to the south of a surface low going across northern MN, which will clear out the skies. This trend of dry air and clear skies will carry us into Saturday, which will be our reward for enduring the last 10 days of cool, cloudy and rainy weather. We should have no problem reaching the low to mid 70s on Saturday, with an 80 not out of the question out by Eau Claire. The one cooler area though will be out toward Alexandria as they'll be under the influence of an h85 thermal trough centered over northwest MN, with h85 temps progged to be only around 4c, which will hold highs out that direction back in the 60s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 333 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019 Warm and pleasant weather continues during the day on Sunday over the region begins to move off to the east. Highs will again warm into the mid 70s for most locations under sunny skies, with cloud cover increasing Sunday evening ahead of the next system. While Saturday/Sunday look dry and pleasant, a more active pattern develops for Monday and continues into mid-week. Two shortwaves approach the area Sunday night into Monday, the stronger wave associated with the northern stream jet and upper trough over Hudson bay while a weaker impulses ejects ahead of a digging trough over the western US. A broad trough of low pressure at the surface across the central plains will deepen into a more organized low pressure center Monday afternoon as the western trough comes off of the Rockies. Isentropic ascent ahead of a warm front to the east of this developing low along with plenty of ascent aloft looks to generate a broad shield of precipitation over the northern plains Sunday night, which is expected to move into Minnesota/Wisconsin during the overnight hours and continue through Monday. Memorial day looks like it could be quite soggy with forecast rainfall amounts ranging from 1-2" across the area and the heaviest amounts expected across southern Minnesota. The greatest thunderstorm potential and possibly even severe threat will depend on where the warm front and highest instability sets up, this currently appears to be further south into Iowa but could shift as we get closer to Monday. The warm front will oscillate just south of the area as the low pressure center approaches from the plains, with additional shower and thunderstorm chances expected Tuesday into Wednesday. Again the best thunderstorm chances and heavy rain potential will depend on where the warm front sets up. PW values look a little lower compared to Monday which should keep additional precipitation amounts to around an inch. Precipitation chances should diminish Wednesday afternoon/evening as the low moves east of the area. Cooler conditions are expected for the end of the week into the weekend as an anomalously deep trough sets up over the eastern half of the US. Still disagreement in the models regarding the depth of the upper level low and extent of the cold air, so will keep temperatures close to the model consensus for now. Overall the latter half of the week looks to be drier than the first, with another shot at precipitation looking possible over the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 754 AM CDT Fri May 24 2019 Thunder threat is looking minimal with precip moving through today. Didn't change much with timing, with on/off showers occurring until an occluded front works through any one location and winds with to the southwest. HREF IFR probs highest in western MN, so continued to trend cig forecasts at MSP/RNH/EAU above LAV guidance. Clearing will work in from the west this afternoon, with mainly clear skies expected tonight. Only thing to watch out for is some of the CAMs are trying to develop fog Saturday morning over in WI. KMSP...Could see cigs late morning into the early afternoon dip down to 800 feet. But given climatologically, this is the time of day we see cigs rise, kept MVFR cigs going. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sat...VFR. Wind W 10-15G25 kts. Sun...VFR. Wind lgt and vrb. Mon...MVFR/SHRA. Chc IFR/-TSRA. Wind E 10G20 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...ETA AVIATION...MPG  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KRLX 200646 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 246 AM EDT Mon May 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front today with high pressure resulting in refreshing weather for Tuesday. A gradually warming Wednesday through Friday along with chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 227 AM Monday... A band of showers moving across SE OH, associated with a strip of 925-H85 frontogenetic forcing, should continue to shift east overnight...but should gradually weaken or even dissipate significantly as they do so. Farther west, a primary sfc cold front will push east across KY/OH through late tonight and move across our CWA during the day..exiting the area by roughly mid afternoon. Isolated to perhaps widely scattered showers may accompany the front itself, but coverage of the precip should generally be low during the daytime hours. Breezy and gusty westerly sfc winds are expected to develop during the day as CAA becomes established. Despite CAA developing, it will still be relatively warm today as the thermal profile does not begin to cool significantly until mid/late afternoon. However, max temps today should be several degrees lower than Sunday's values (it will also feel less humid as drier air spreads into the region). Surface high pressure axis is prog to extend southeastward into the region tonight with wind profiles relaxing. If wind speeds weaken enough and cloud cover remains thin enough (currently expecting greatest cloud thickness/coverage to be located across the NE CWA), then many areas may fall into the 40s for overnight lows. Am a little worried about how much soil moisture values will prevent max cooling from occurring, but regardless tonight will feel rather crisp. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 244 PM Sunday... A surface high pressure system builds from the northwest to provide dry and about normal temperatures under light northerly flow Monday night into Tuesday night. Lows will range from the lower 50s lowlands to the low 40s highest elevations. Highs Tuesday will stay a around 70 degrees lowlands ranging into the upper 50s northeast mountains. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday... On Wednesday morning, a warm front develops south of the area and should gradually lift north under increasing southwest flow into early Thursday. Then, the area will remain in the warm sector of an approaching low pressure system. Model's consensus indicate warm air and moisture advection will gradually increase through the end of the week. Temperatures will increase from the mid 80s Wednesday, to around 90 degrees Thursday and Friday. Showers and storms will be possible, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 119 AM Monday... VFR currently expected to prevail through most of the TAF period. A cold front will push from west to east across the region beginning late tonight and through the day Monday. Some scattered low level cloudiness may occur during the morning, but overall CIGs are currently expected to remain at VFR levels. A few -SHRA may also occur along the front, but coverage is expected to be too sparse to include in TAFs attm. Front pushes east of the area by the afternoon with breezy to gusty Wrly sfc winds developing, aloNg with VFR prevailing. Winds should weaken this evening and become more NWrly as high pressure builds into the region. Some bkn MVFR CIGs may try to push into the area late in the TAF period, primarily across KPKB/KCKB/KEKN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBYS and CIGs may briefly lower is a shower moves directly over an aerodrome. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 05/20/19 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... Widespread IFR conditions are not expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RH/RG NEAR TERM...RH SHORT TERM...RH LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...RH  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDDC 200023 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 723 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019 ...updated aviation section... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 333 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019 A strong synoptic trof with copious moisture advection ahead of it will influence our weather through tomorrow. Showers and thunderstorms will spread across the FA starting early in the morning. Heavy rain of a few inches will be likely by the time all said and done. Cannot rule out isolated hail, but the overall severe threat looks on the marginal side. Tomorrow will be considerably cool with highs 20 degrees below normal. The highs may not be cool enough depending on which model you buy into as far as the frontal boundary is concerned. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 333 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019 Warm air advection showers and thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday with the ongoing threat of heavy rainfall. The synoptic trof will eventually pull out of the area by Tuesday evening. The next opportunity of storms comes Thursday. Severe thunderstorms may occur with this second system. There will be bouts of showers and thunderstorms (some severe) through the rest of the extended period. Highs will trend to near normal through much of the long term. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 719 PM CDT Sun May 19 2019 A light wind field will continue through this evening while winds become more southeasterly - eventually increasing to around 15 knots by the middle of the overnight as the pressure gradient develops. Strong warm boundary layer temperature and moisture advection develops by early Monday as overspreading showers and scattered thunderstorms with ceilings developing and deteriorating between about 10z and late morning. Rain will persist though the day before turning more to a low stratus overcast with drizzle (LIFR probable) due to cool side of boundary and persistent easterly upslope surface flow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 49 59 54 71 / 40 100 80 20 GCK 49 58 50 68 / 60 100 70 20 EHA 53 65 47 71 / 70 90 50 10 LBL 54 63 51 74 / 60 100 70 10 HYS 44 53 51 70 / 20 100 80 50 P28 52 61 58 76 / 10 100 90 30 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon for KSZ031-045-046-064>066-077>081-087>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sugden LONG TERM...Sugden AVIATION...Russell  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMTR 121516 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 816 AM PDT Sun May 12 2019 .SYNOPSIS...Dry weather conditions with temperatures near to slightly above normal will prevail through early this week as high pressure builds over the region. Periods of night and more coastal/valley clouds are also likely given the marine influences. A cooling trend with the potential for shower chances are then expected for the latter half of the week. && .DISCUSSION...as of 08:15 AM PDT Sunday...A 2000 ft marine layer is locked solidly in place across the vast majority of the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast this Mothers Days morning. Cloud bases at 800-1200 feet and cloud thicknesses roughly around 1000 feet. Expect to see the marine layer mix out by the mid morning for extreme inland locations, late morning for most urban areas, and as late as the early afternoon closer to the coast. To no surprise, conditions this morning are running very similar to 24 hours ago, with only slightly weaker terrain driven winds this morning. Despite the early cloud coverage, today is expected the be the warmest day of the week as high pressure strengthens aloft. Afternoon highs are forecast to push into the mid to upper 80s for the extreme inland valleys, 70s to low 80s for urban areas, and mid to upper 60s along the coasts and shorelines. These temperatures are a degree or two above seasonal normals for this time of the year. The marine layer will return tonight in time to obscure the night sky along the coast before pushing inland to encompass most of the urban areas by sunrise Monday. The marine layer will feel some exertion from above given the build ridge, meaning bases will be slightly lower and the likelihood of drizzle increases along the coastal ridges. Looking ahead, high pressure will continue to build over California into Monday before transitioning eastward into the Great Basin by Tuesday. A late season Gulf of Alaska trough will then dig southward and begin to encroach on the North Bay late Tuesday into Wednesday. This will introduce cooler, wetter conditions into the region from mid week through the end of the work week. Ensemble members still showing some signs of uncertainty with regards to amounts/coverage, with the current forecast model introducing rain to the North Bay and much of the coast Wednesday night into Thursday, and across the entire region with the arrival of a second pulse later Thursday into Friday. Main forecast challenge of the day will be to fine tune the forecast during this upcoming unsettled weather pattern. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...as of 3:15 AM PDT Sunday...With a 2000 foot marine layer, coastal low clouds have spread into and filled inland valleys, as seen on IR satellite imagery. Onshore flow is slightly stronger with 2.4 mb from SFO to SAC as compared to 1.8 mb 24 hours ago. That will keep near-coastal locations with similar temperatures as yesterday, but high pressure aloft will give slightly warmer temps to inland areas today as the marine layer compresses somewhat. An approaching upper level trough will initiate a cooling trend on Monday, which will continue through late in the week. Initially there will be slight cooling Monday as the ridge flattens out and the marine layer deepens. Then more cooling is expected as an upper level low from the Gulf of Alaska approaches the Pacific Northwest. A second and stronger shortwave will deepen off the coast on Wednesday. Some model differences in timing still exist, but the ensemble consensus of rain chances arriving on Wednesday is enough to keep that timing in the forecast. Showers to decrease on Thursday as the system moves to the east. The forecast beyond then is more unclear, so slight chance pops persist in an unsettled pattern. && .AVIATION...as of 05:04 AM PDT Sunday...For 12z tafs. Marine layer this morning remains around 2000 feet per the Fort Ord Profiler. Cloud bases are between 600 and 1500 feet AGL with MVFR/IFR observed at most sites. A few locations remain at VFR, particularly around KSQL and portions of the South Bay where stratus has not developed. Expecting cloud bases to slowly lift around sunrise with breakup occurring between 16-18z at most terminals, similar to Saturday. Light onshore winds will continue this morning and increase this afternoon before decreasing during the evening. With slight compression of the marine layer, return of stratus this evening could occur slightly later than Saturday evening with perhaps lesser extent into the inland valleys. Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR cigs will continue into the morning hours. Expecting breakup of the stratus to occur similar to Saturday morning. Westerly winds will continue and increase this afternoon to around 15 kt. SFO Bridge Approach...SMB surface observations indicate OVC while satellite indicates a hole in the stratus over portions of the approach over the past few hours. Stratus may fill in over the approach around sunrise and then burn off by around 17z. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR/IFR cigs at the terminals will continue through the morning hours. VFR conditions expected to develop by 16-17z with visuals through the afternoon. Stratus will reform this evening. Onshore winds will increase this afternoon to 10-15 kt. && .MARINE...as of 07:53 AM PDT Sunday...High pressure will build overhead through early next week. Low pressure inland will result in northwest winds continuing through Monday. Winds will become locally gusty near the coast and bays during the afternoon and evening hours. These winds will generate fresh swell along the coast. A small long period southerly swell will continue through next week. Deteriorating conditions are expected by mid week as a late season front is forecast to move across the waters. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tday...SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm from 2 PM SCA...Mry Bay from 2 PM SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 2 PM SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm SCA...SF Bay from 3 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP AVIATION: ST MARINE: ST Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDTX 292248 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 648 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2019 .AVIATION... There will be a region of mid level subsidence building in behind the departing area of rain this evening. This will force remnant low level moisture to remain trapped beneath of deepening subsidence inversion, which should remain supportive of MVFR (perhaps some IFR) ceilings into the night with some areas of drizzle. There has been the development of a considerable amount of IFR and LIFR ceilings upstream across Wisconsin. Se Mi will however remain within persistent light east-northeast sfc winds through the night, which will attempt to advect a slightly drier airmass into low level across Se Mi. This suggests that ceilings heights will likely be highly variable through the night. Given the trends, a predominate low end MVFR cig will be forecast from PTK northward. IFR probabilities will be higher around metro Detroit where low level moisture content will be higher. For DTW...a weakening gradient will support continued weakening of the northeast winds this evening. Current ceiling trends suggest lower to IFR will be a little later into the evening (02Z or so). Again there is likely to be some degree of variable ceiling heights not just through the night but through the entire TAF period. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High in ceilings at or below 5000 ft tonight and Tuesday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 345 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2019 DISCUSSION... The upper level pattern over the next several days will bring an active weather stretch with several opportunities for rainfall with thunderstorms by mid-week. The first round of ongoing rainfall will continue through the remainder of the afternoon with the bulk of precipitation tapering off from east to west between 23- 01Z this evening. Large scale ascent with strong moisture transport riding over the boundary to our south is supporting these rain showers, which will continue into this evening as a surface low moves into OH. PWATs increasing to around 1 inch will support periods of moderate rainfall. Latest guidance keeps Showalter indices positive and instability remains south of Michigan, so will keep any mention of thunder out of the grids for the remainder of the day. There will be a brief lull in precipitation chances during the overnight time frame. Post frontal north to northeasterly flow will keep conditions cool with plenty of cloud cover sticking around. Lows tonight will drop into the mid 30s to low 40s. Troughing across the western US will set the stage for the mid-week activity as the southwesterly jet increases moisture transport into the Great Lakes region. A warm frontal boundary will set up south of MI tomorrow, which will allow for increased chances of precipitation before 2 pm across far lower MI as warm advection showers develop off of this boundary with increasing isentropic ascent. Upstream in the southern plains will be a southerly wave that gets ejected northward towards the Great Lakes bringing increasing rain chances beyond 2 pm into into Wednesday. PWAT values with this round of activity will increase towards the 1.50 inch range aided by that strengthening jet allowing for periods of moderate rainfall. Lighter rain showers through afternoon make way for a wave of heavier rainfall occuring roughly between 2 am and 8 am Wednesday morning. As this wave lifts northward, the warm sector will be drawn into central Michigan by Wednesday afternoon. This will then bring an opportunity for instability to increase and mid level lapse rates to improve bringing a chance of thunderstorms through the day. Greater thunderstorm potential currently resides across Lower MI from around I-94 and south. The warm advection lifting into lower MI will also bring increasing temperatures and leave a decent temperature gradient across the CWA. Looks like temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s along and north of I-69 and upper 60s to low 70s to the south. Thursday starts with the potential for a dry period before rain chances increase again by the afternoon and evening hours as another wave moves through the Great Lakes. This wave will bring light to moderate rain overnight into early Friday morning with weak midlevel instability perhaps resulting in a few rumbles of thunder. Temperatures Thursday will be dependent on how far north the warm front lifts with the approach of the wave and its timing, and will need better consensus among guidance before reaching a higher confidence forecast. For now, kept highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s in the north, to near 70 in the south. The wave will push a cold front through the region with dry northwest flow filling in on Friday. Surface high pressure will build in Friday and Saturday with midlevel subsidence associated with left entrance region of upper jet, resulting in a period of dry weather with temps near seasonal normal values. The next chance for rain comes late Sunday as an upper trough digs into the region. MARINE... Moderate easterly winds will exist through the evening period as a low pressure system tracks across the northern Ohio valley. Strongest winds noted from the southern lake Huron basin southward, where the wind speed will continue to support small craft advisory conditions. Winds briefly easing while backing to northerly tonight into Tuesday morning. A shift back to easterly late Tuesday, then increasing through Tuesday night as a stronger low pressure system lifts into the region. Winds remain forecast to hover around 30 knots late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Marine headlines will likely be needed on Wednesday. HYDROLOGY... Southeast Michigan will remain within a wet pattern through the late week period. Multiple episodes of rainfall are expected during this time, resulting in cumulative rainfall totals potentially exceeding 2 inches before this pattern eases Friday. Flooding concerns are not expected through Tuesday, as an initial round of rainfall this afternoon and evening results in amounts of less than half an inch. Widespread rainfall expected again Tuesday night through Wednesday, with another good chance Thursday. Potential exists for thunderstorms to contribute to localized higher rainfall totals during this time. This rainfall into already saturated ground conditions will leave the area increasingly susceptible to the possibility for flooding of poor drainage and urbanized areas, along with rises on rivers and streams. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ048- 076-083. Lake Huron...NONE. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444. && $$ AVIATION.....SC DISCUSSION...AA/TF MARINE.......MR HYDROLOGY....MR You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMTR 201203 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 503 AM PDT Sat Apr 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS...A passing cold front will bring cooler weather and coastal drizzle to the Bay Area Saturday. Warmer weather is forecast on Sunday with building high pressure. A more noticeable warming trend will develop early next week with above normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION...as of 03:03 AM PDT Saturday...A much deeper marine layer is currently impacting the Bay Area ahead of an approaching cold front. Ft Ord puts the depth near 1,800-2,000 feet this morning. Satellite imagery shows another night of widespread coastal and inland valley stratus. Automated sensors around the region also indicate some patchy fog with visibility three to six miles and at times less. Additionally, Half Moon Bay reported a few hours of -RA and drizzle has been observed here at the forecast office. A few other sites around the region tipped 0.01" of precip this morning too. Needless to say, but a very moisture boundary layer is present this morning. Current forecast will continue the mention of morning clouds, fog and drizzle. As for the cold front itself, latest surface analysis puts the front near the far Northern Sonoma county. KMUX radar imagery actually shows a few echoes off the coast, which is likely the front. Not expecting much precip from the front, but more drizzle from the very moist low levels. The cold front is projected to move through the Bay Area today, which will result in cool and cloudy conditions. Forecast highs today will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s at the coast and 60s to lower 70s inland or several degrees below normal. A few low clouds will be possible tonight with some lingering drizzle, especially Monterey/Big Sur area, as the front exits to the east. By Sunday high pressure will begin to build over the region which will kick off a noticeable warming and drying trend. Temperatures on Sunday will warm three to six degrees. High pressure will continue to build into next week and peak Tuesday/Wednesday. Unlike the last warm up this warm up will have some offshore flow support. Latest WRF model indicates decent NE winds at 925mb Monday and Tuesday. Offshore flow will erode any remaining stratus and introduce lower RH values, especially overnight across the N and E Bay Hills. The strength of the ridge is projected to be two to three standard deviations above normal at 500 mb. Simply put, much above normal for this time of year resulting in some rather warm temperatures. By Wednesday, interior portions of Monterey/San Benito could see temperatures in the mid 90s. Other locations around the Bay Area will not be as warm, but 70-80s around the Bay Shoreline and widespread 80s inland. Both Tuesday and Wednesday will see high temperatures as much as 15 degrees above normal. Very subtle cooling on Thursday as flow aloft become more zonal and low level flow becomes more onshore. A bigger drop in temperatures is forecast on Friday and next weekend as an upper level low moves toward the PacNW. Unlike previous model runs the GFS has now backed off on precip chances next weekend and is more inline with the ECMWF. && .AVIATION...as of 5:03 AM PDT Saturday...Ongoing onshore push of stratus ramps up through morning per recent statistical guidance forecasting increasing southwest to west winds by late morning and afternoon. Metar observations range from IFR in patchy drizzle or light rain to MVFR-VFR. LIFR probability satellite imagery shows plenty of coastal stratus and fog converging along the coastline and extending inland. Incoming cold front later today sweeps SE over the area with potential for strong and gusty post frontal winds over a large part of the area this afternoon and evening. Winds will shift to west to northwest and leaving few-sct cloud coverage at lower levels, in general VFR returns late today and tonight as well as for Sunday. Vicinity of KSFO...W-SW wind 10 to 15 knots becoming W by late morning and increasingly strong and gusty with gusts up over 30 knots in the afternoon and evening. Ceiling lifts quickly to MVFR-VFR by late morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Patchy drizzle or light rain in IFR ceilings this morning, ceilings then lifting to MVFR by late morning. Gusty winds developing in the afternoon. VFR tonight and Sunday. && .MARINE...as of 4:43 AM PDT Saturday...An upper level trough and surface cold front will move southeast over the coastal waters and bays later today. Surface high pressure over the eastern Pacific will build in behind the cold front during the weekend and build into the Great Basin early next week. Gusty northwest winds will generate fresh steep seas over the weekend while swell heights remain moderate. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tday...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 9 AM SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm from 9 AM SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm SCA...SF Bay from 9 AM SCA...Mry Bay from 9 AM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: MM AVIATION/MARINE: Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KIND 131342 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 942 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019 .UPDATE... The NEAR TERM section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 342 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019 After a dry and cool day today...low pressure will track through the Ohio Valley late tonight and Sunday...bringing the threat for heavy rain and a few storms. Dry and cool weather will return for the beginning of the week...with a quick warmup by Tuesday and Wednesday as southerly flow returns. Rain and storms return Wednesday night into Friday as strong low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes. Cooler temperatures will return again heading into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/... Issued at 942 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019 Upped sky cover as thicker cirrus is moving in. However, still kept it in the partly cloudy category for now, but may have to increase even more if cirrus stays thick. Otherwise only made some minor tweaks to other parameters. Will keep an eye on the cloud thickness and its potential to affect high temperatures. Previous discussion follows... Mainly clear skies across the region this morning with just some thin cirrus drifting through. 08Z temperatures were in the 40s with light and variable flow. A high pressure ridge extended from the central Plains east into the upper Ohio Valley early this morning. The high will serve as the primary influence for much of the day as it slowly gets shoved north by the developing storm system over Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Expect mainly sunny skies through the first half of the day with a slow increase in mid and high level clouds from the south this afternoon as moisture advects north along a boundary lifting 39into the western Tennessee Valley. May see the leading edge of the lighter rain sneak into the lower Wabash Valley by early evening but overall...the presence of dry air and subsidence will keep it dry in most areas until after sunset. That storm system is already in the process of developing this morning as a surface wave lifts out of northeast Mexico into Texas. The arrival of a sharp but potent upper wave that will cutoff over north Texas later today will prompt a rapid deepening of the surface low by late day as it tracks northeast into the Arklatex. This is likely to produce a substantial severe weather risk over the lower Mississippi Valley west into east Texas this afternoon and evening...with rain lifting north into the lower Ohio Valley late. Temps...low level thermals support an overall model blend for high temperatures today which should make it into the upper 50s and lower 60s in most areas. Slightly cooler than normal by mid April standards but without the windy conditions experienced on Friday... should be an overall pleasant day for central Indiana. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/... Issued at 342 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019 Forecast challenges focus on rain...storm chances and temperatures as the aforementioned storm system lifts into the Ohio Valley late tonight and Sunday. The upper low will track northeast tonight before becoming absorbed by a northern stream system aloft on Sunday. A meridional but progressive upper level trough will then shift east late Sunday into early Monday sweeping the storm system quickly into New England. The surface wave will continue to deepen tonight as it tracks into the Ohio Valley Sunday morning. Model guidance has generally come into better alignment with a more southern track to the low from the lower Ohio Valley Sunday morning into eastern Ohio by Sunday evening which will likely limit any concerns about severe weather to areas mainly southeast of the forecast area. As has been the case for the last few days...the primary impact from this system in central Indiana will be the potential for periods with heavy rainfall late tonight into Sunday morning. Stronger isentropic lift will expand into the region late evening into the overnight with much deeper moisture advecting north courtesy of a strong low level jet. Mid and upper level diffluence will help promote efficient rainfall rates as the system approaches from the predawn hours into Sunday morning. 1 to 2 inches of rain remains a likely possibility by later on Sunday with the focus for heaviest rainfall amount s focused over southern counties closer to the surface wave track. CAMs starting to key in on more enhanced convection sweeping into the southern half of the forecast area after 09Z and shifting east through mid morning Sunday. Model soundings highlight a decent amount of instability and steeper lapse rates present above a sharp inversion with potential for stronger cells to produce hail as wet bulb zero levels hover between 8 and 10kft. The inversion though should largely mitigate any wind threat with convection Sunday morning. Cannot entirely rule out some scattered convective redevelopment on Sunday afternoon but overall confidence is low with the forecast area on the north side of the surface wave under clouds and a generally unfavorable thermodynamic setup. Wrap around moisture will rotate into the region Sunday afternoon and evening before kicking out east with the upper trough axis after midnight Sunday night. Some signals persist hinting at a few snowflakes to mix in over northern counties before the precipitation ends Sunday night but confidence remains low in this possibility as model soundings suggest drier air will be coming in as the boundary layer cools. Will continue to keep any snow mention out at this time. Upper level flow will quickly transition to a zonal regime in the wake of the trough moving away to the east with ridging developing by Monday night. Northwest flow and cold advection in the wake of the storm system however will keep it cool on Monday with scattered clouds lingering for much of the day. Skies will clear Monday night with winds shifting to southerly. Temps...Sunday remains tricky with respect to temperatures. Despite the low tracking south of the region...still anticipating a sharp gradient across the forecast area with a likely 20 degree spread from northwest to southeast. High potential for a raw and chilly day over the northwest half of central Indiana as temperatures stay in the 40s. Leaned closer to the warmer MAV guidance for Monday but temperatures will remain cool in the 50s. An overall model blend should work well for lows through the period which will be chilly. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/... Issued at 244 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019 Ensembles indicate a progressive nature to the long wave features during this period. Upper ridging over the local area during the early to middle parts of next week will be replaces by another deep trough, expected to move into the Midwest by next Friday. Will keep the forecast dry for Tuesday and Wednesday, under the upper ridge. Ensembles suggest the precipitation threat from the next approaching trough may arrive as early as Wednesday night. Will go with PoPs starting Wednesday night, and continue them into next Friday to cover this system. The system around the middle of next week has the potential to be another significant one, with long range operational models suggesting an associated mid level jet near 100 kts. && .AVIATION /Discussion for the 131200Z TAFS/... Issued at 630 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019 Increasing layered cloud above 050 and unrestricted visibility expected at the terminals today. Light surface winds early this morning will become 260-300 degrees at 6-9 kts by midday. A gradual veering of the wind to 330-360 degrees is expected towards sunset. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ryan NEAR TERM...Ryan/50 SHORT TERM...Ryan LONG TERM....JAS AVIATION...JAS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KRAH 090018 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 815 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2019 .SYNOPSIS... The approach of an upper level disturbance, interacting with a moist and unstable atmosphere, will support the development of numerous showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening. A few of the storms may be severe. This storm system will allow for another round of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday before exiting the region Tuesday night. Dry and seasonal weather is expected for Wednesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 PM Monday... 19Z meso analysis depicts a slightly unstable air mass over central NC with bulk shear strong enough to aid in organizing the cells into broken convective bands. The atmosphere ahead of the developing convective bands will continue to destabilize further as temperatures climb to or above 80 degrees. As the storms move into this favorable air mass, expect further intensification with a few storms becoming severe. A pocket of dry air in the 700-500mb layer will lend toward evaporation, enhancing downdrafts and leading to locally strong/damaging wind gusts. In addition, updrafts able to persist 20-30 minutes will have the potential to produce large hail. This hail threat currently appears highest over portions of the northern Piedmont. Through 21Z, expect to see the storms to eventually evolve into broken bands with a threat for damaging wind gusts. These band of convection will approach the highway corridor including the Triangle region in the 22Z-00Z time frame. After 00Z, expect the convective threat to increase along the I-95 corridor, though by this time, the near surface atmosphere will begin to stabilize with loss of heating. Expect scattered-numerous showers to persist into the overnight as a series of mid level perturbations move east across eastern GA and South Carolina. While overall coverage will be decent, intensity should be waning as the atmosphere stabilizes. Relatively mild night with overnight temperatures in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 PM Monday... Tuesday, the upper level low currently crossing the lower MS Valley will open up and lift newd, in response to a s/w in the northern stream crossing the Great Lakes and into New England. This s/w will propel a sfc cold front toward central NC from the NW. The approach of the upper wave will increase upper diffluence over central NC. Meanwhile west-southwest 850mb flow will maintain a warm and moist air mass. The approach of the cold front will enhance low level convergence Tuesday afternoon through early Tuesday evening. GFS based instability parameters suggest MLCAPE values on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg by early Tuesday afternoon with bulk shear values of 40-50kts. These parameters suggest a better potential for storms with supercellular characteristics; though will caution that morning stratus/low clouds and scattered showers may temper the instability, leading to a less than robust atmosphere for scattered strong/severe convection. Still with better low level shear and a few sfc boundaries likely lurking in the region, could see a weak tornado or two in the afternoon, mainly south of highway 64. Atmosphere will be fairly uniform temperature wise thanks to the considerable cloudiness and scattered-numerous showers. Expect highs generally in the mid-upper 70s. The sfc cold front will drift sewd tuesday evening, bringing an end to the scattered convection NW-SE. NW flow behind the front will usher a stable drier air mass, leading to decreasing cloud cover overnight. Min temps lower 50s NW to the mid-upper 50s SE. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 155 PM Monday... Overview: High amplitude ridging aloft will take over for the early part of the period before reverting back to large scale troughing by the weekend. By Wednesday morning, a backdoor cold front will continue its journey south through central NC, reinforced by strengthening surface high pressure descending briefly down the lee side of the Appalachians. Northerly/northeasterly flow will linger into Thursday before giving way to a dynamic WAA regime Thursday night into Friday just ahead of a Cold Front passage Friday night. High pressure returns briefly on saturday, with CAD like conditions strengthening Saturday night and Sunday as a southern stream disturbance begins to track northeastward into the mid Atlantic region Sunday and Monday. Wednesday and Thursday: High pressure settles in from the north Wednesday afternoon as a weak backdoor cold front descends southward. Weak northerly/northeasterly flow will help to limit afternoon high temperatures Wednesday and potentially into Thursday before southerly flow truly re-establishes in a strong WAA regime, allowing for some rapid warm-sector recovery east of the Appalachians. Highs will top out in the low to mid 70s Wednesday and Thursday with overnight lows dipping into the 40s. Friday/Friday Night: A shortwave will round the base of the northern Jet late Thursday into Friday spreading low to mid level vort maxes east through the Mid Atlantic. Best forcing looks to remain well north of our area, but with robust southerly flow helping to maximize the WAA regime in a mid-Spring type environment, it would be irresponsible to not at least carry mention of convection/thunder with the passage of the cold front, likely to spread WNW to ESE through the region Friday afternoon/evening. Rest of the period: Surface high pressure settles in from the northwest on Saturday before a CAD type setup commences on Sunday. Meanwhile, the southern stream becomes a bit more active, with broad scale troughing beginning the early stages of cyclogenesis over the MS River Delta late Saturday, transitioning energy northeastward into the Mid Atlantic by early next week. Will be keeping a close eye on the progression of this system as it could mark the next opportunity for widespread convection along with isolated Severe Weather as early as Sunday evening, highly dependent on the CAD dynamics in place. Check back for frequent updates here. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 815 PM Monday... Variable aviation parameters will persist across central NC as the weather pattern will be unsettled through Tuesday evening. Areas of of showers and thunderstorms will continue to track eastward across the region into the first half of the overnight, with some decrease in coverage after 08Z. Ceilings will trend lower after 06Z with widespread IFR/LIFR probable. Ceilings will gradually lift after 13Z, though MVFR ceilings will persist into Tuesday afternoon. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will threaten the region late Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening. In vicinity of the heavier showers and storms, anticipate MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities along with sfc wind gusts 30-40kts. In proximity of the stronger t-storms, some hail may be encountered. Another round of low ceilings or areas of fog are possible late Tuesday evening prior to the arrival of a drier air mass which will overspread central NC from the west late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. VFR parameters appear likely Wednesday into Thursday. Another round of scattered convection with associated sub VFR parameters expected Friday into Friday evening. VFR parameters should return for Saturday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS/Haines NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...JJM AVIATION...WSS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KRAH 081716 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 115 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2019 .SYNOPSIS... The approach of an upper level disturbance, interacting with a moist and unstable atmosphere, will support the development of numerous showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening. A few of the storms may be severe. This storm system will allow for another round of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday before exiting the region Tuesday night. Dry and seasonal weather is expected for Wednesday and Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1050 AM Monday... 12Z upper air analysis reveals a marginally moist atmosphere over central NC with a notable wly flow over the region. Aloft, a closed 500mb low was located in vicinity of the ARLATEX, with a lead perturbation/shear axis was noted between Birmingham and Nashville. The approach of this perturbation should cause the low-mid level flow to back to a southwesterly direction later this afternoon/evening. This backing will enhance the low level shear plus advect a warm moist air mass into central NC. This added moisture/instability coupled with the modest cool pool attendant with the perturbation should result in a slight-moderately unstable atmosphere by late afternoon-early evening. This should lead to the development of numerous showers and t-storms by late afternoon, continuing into the evening hours. Due to the presence of the available shear and instability, the potential will exists for a few severe storms to occur with the main severe weather threat being isolated damaging wind gusts and marginally large hail. Some caveats to this set-up will be: a.) low stratus deck this morning is inhibiting heating. If this low cloud deck is slow to dissipate, this will inhibit heating later this afternoon, resulting in lower than expected available instability; b.) 12Z GSO sounding depicts a rather thick layer of warm air between 850-700mb. Model projections suggest this layer becoming cooler late this afternoon with the approach of the mid level perturbation. If this fails to materialize, the presence of this warm layer will inhibit convection depth/development; c.) lack of a low level boundary to focus convection and enhance low level shear/helicity. All-in-all, near term forecast pretty much on target. Lingering low clouds late this morning will require some modest adjustment downward in the hourly temperatures to reflect the lack of sunshine. Some of the convective allowing models are depicting initial development over the southern Piedmont and Sandhills in proximity of a differential heating boundary. May need to adjust PoPs to place the initial focus farther south versus the NW Piedmont. Tonight, expect scattered to numerous showers and a few storms to persist well into the overnight as the lead perturbation lifts newd across the region. May see a downward trend in the convective coverage after 06Z. Otherwise, it will remain quite mild for this time of year with overnight temperatures in the low-mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 435 AM Monday... The models are in better agreement regarding the timing of the mid- upr low now over ern TX, as it lifts newd and devolves into an open wave trough over the srn Appalachians by 12Z Tue, before migrating ewd to the sern US coast through early Wed. Related, 30-60 meter mid level height falls will overspread the Carolinas during the day and provide for large scale forcing for ascent Tue. Additionally, a preceding mid level dry slot punching newd into the ArkLaTex vicinity this morning, and an upstream EML plume evident in 00Z/8th RAOB data over wrn TX, will migrate newd and manifest as a plume of steep mid level lapse rates (around 7-7.5 C/km) over the Carolinas, on the poleward side of a 50 kt mid level speed max forecast to stream newd along the sern US coast during the same time. The former should yield moderate afternoon instability throughout cntl NC, as surface temperatures warm into the 70s and dewpoints remain in the lwr-mid 60s. At the surface, a polar front will extend from wrn PA/NY, swwd into the mid-South at 12Z Tue, then continue sewd to the sern US coast through early Wed. Meanwhile, an initially closed, 1005 mb surface low will track from cntl AL at 12Z Tue, newd across SC and srn-sern NC by 00Z Wed, possibly along a diabatically-generated/reinforced, Appalachian-lee mesoscale boundary, then offshore. The track of that wave will likely focus the most intense convection during the period over the ern Carolinas, where storm organization would be progressively more likely amidst the stronger flow aloft there -- including over the ern NC Sandhills and srn Coastal Plain-- where a mixed, multi-cell to supercell storm mode will be possible. Weaker deep layer shear will favor a multi-cell storm mode elsewhere, including scattered convection along the aforementioned polar front, and related nwrn bound of instability and deep convection, as it moves across the nwrn-nrn NC Piedmont through Tue evening. Two complicating factors in the above forecast will be: 1) a signal in model guidance for lingering early day convection over the sern half of cntl NC, and related diabatic influence and convective overturning of the otherwise steep mid level lapse rates, and 2) the degree of mid level dry air accompanying the foregoing steep mid level lapse rates, within the dry conveyor belt and modified EML plume, which may limit overall storm coverage. Such mesoscale influences will be better resolved and hopefully identified by tonight. It will otherwise turn drier, cooler, and less humid, as post- frontal surface dewpoint values decrease into the 40s to lwr 50s, with low temperatures in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 500 AM Monday... The models are in general agreement regarding the pattern at the surface and aloft and across the CONUS through the medium range, particularly regarding an initial, powerful cyclone forecast to track from the cntl Plains newd across the mid MS valley; upr Midwest; and Great Lakes Wed-Fri. Model spread increases relative to the amplification/development of a second powerful shortwave trough/closed low across the Rockies late in the week, with mostly amplitude differences downstream, as it tracks from the srn Plains to the lwr Great Lakes/nrn middle Atlantic states Sat-Mon. At the surface, continental Polar high pressure will initially build swd across the middle Atlantic states Wed-early Thu, then offshore, with related near average high temperatures and a few-several degrees below average low temperatures during that time. Between that surface high and the powerful cyclone tracking from the cntl US to the Great Lakes, the low level flow will veer to sly-swly, and strengthen, with related warm/moist advection that will peak across the Carolinas and middle Atlantic --with a related good to likely probability of showers and storms-- Fri-Fri night. Seasonably strong (1025-1030 mb), continental Polar high pressure expanding across the Great Lakes will help drive the related surface frontal zone swd across VA and NC Sat-Sat night, amidst subsident, shortwave ridging between the two deep troughs aloft, and on the nwrn rim of a strengthening sub-tropical ridge over the Caribbean/Bahamas. That surface ridge will likely provide for some degree of cold air damming across cntl NC on Sun, as isentropic upglide occurs atop the frontal zone/inversion and surface ridge. So while precipitation chances will be on the increase Sun, after a mainly dry and warm Sat, it seems at this time likely that much of cntl NC will remain in a cooler and more stable wedge air mass characterized by surface temperatures in the 60s on Sun, ranging to 70s over the srn part of the state/invof the frontal zone and higher probability of deep convection - some possibly strong-severe, given the pattern. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 115 PM Monday... Expect variable aviation parameters across central NC as the weather pattern will be unsettled through Tuesday evening. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will cross the region late this afternoon, persisting into the first half of the overnight. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will threaten the region late Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening. In vicinity of the heavier showers and storms, anticipate MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities along with sfc wind gusts 30-40kts. In proximity of the stronger t-storms, some hail may be encountered. After 04Z Tuesday, areas of low stratus may develop with ceilings IFR/LIFR probable. These low ceilings expected to gradually lift Tuesday morning, followed by another round of showers and t-storms with MVFR/IFR parameters likely. Another round of low ceilings or areas of fog are possible late Tuesday evening prior to the arrival of a drier air mass which will overspread central NC from the west late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. VFR parameters appear likely Wednesday into Thursday. Another round of scattered convection with associated sub VFR parameters expected Friday into Friday evening. VFR parameters should return for Saturday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS/Haines NEAR TERM...WSS SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...WSS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KPDT 072142 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 242 PM PDT Sun Apr 7 2019 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday. Deep plume of moisture will continue to move across the region with a strong southwest flow aloft. Satellite and models indicate several weak lows moving along the boundary which overlays the forecast area tonight into Monday. Each of these will enhance the rainfall. Still expect the heaviest rain to be over the Cascades and across central and northeast Oregon. River forecasts continue to show rises on most rivers and streams into early next week. Several will reach bankfull Mon-Tue. FLS and RVS products detail the hydrologic impacts. An upper level trough will then move across the region Mon night and Tuesday. Steady rain Mon night will change to showers Tue. Fairly strong surface high building in with breezy to windy conditions during the day. A brief break Tue night then the next upper trough moves through Wednesday with additional rain. 94 .LONG TERM...Wednesday Night through Sunday...An active and unsettled weather pattern will continue through much of the long term period. Initially there will be a ridge offshore and a large trough over the Rockies and Midwestern states. Our area will be on the boundary between the ridge and the trough under a northwest flow. Wednesday night models bring an upper low or wave into the area late Wednesday night and Thursday though there are differences in strength, timing and path. This will bring a chance of rain and mountain snow to the area before tapering off Thursday night. The Columbia Basin will be mostly dry. Snow levels will drop to 3500- 4000 feet. Friday and Friday night will be a break between systems though a northwest flow will keep a slight chance of rain and snow showers in the mountains and central Oregon during the day on Friday. Another low is expected on either Saturday or Saturday night and continuing through Sunday with a slight chance of lower elevation rain and a chance of mountain rain and snow with snow levels around 5000 feet. Temperatures will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s with upper 40s to mid 50s in the mountains. Lows will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s with mid 20s to mid 30s in the mountains. Perry && .AVIATION...18Z TAFs...Scattered to widespread rain, moderate at times, expected at TAF sites through the period, though it will be limited to after 00Z at KYKM and KPSC. Though ceilings are mainly VFR, MVFR and brief IFR conditions are possible, especially with the heavier showers. Mountain obscuration possible as well. Southwest to northwest winds generally around 10-20 kts through this afternoon before tapering off this evening. Gusts up around 25 kts possible today at KBDN and KRDM. Perry && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 45 59 41 55 / 80 80 60 40 ALW 47 61 44 57 / 80 70 60 50 PSC 47 64 44 63 / 80 60 40 30 YKM 41 62 40 61 / 80 70 40 20 HRI 46 64 43 61 / 80 70 50 30 ELN 39 57 37 55 / 70 70 40 20 RDM 44 56 36 50 / 80 80 70 40 LGD 43 55 38 48 / 80 90 80 70 GCD 44 56 38 48 / 80 100 80 60 DLS 45 61 43 58 / 90 80 50 20 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ 94/83/83  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KMLB 311920 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 321 PM EDT Sun Mar 31 2019 .DISCUSSION... ...Unsettled Period Early in the New Week... Current-Tonight...Surface ridging's influence will continue to lessen as it pulls seaward ahead of the approaching cold front moving through north FL early this afternoon. The boundary should reside just north of our coverage warning area early this evening, then slowly move southward through the night into the central peninsula. It will probably align just north of Lake Okeechobee by sunrise Mon morning becoming quasi-stationary. The atmosphere remains somewhat moisture-starved; KXMR 10Z sounding shows a PWAT of only 0.91. This profile also shows very dry air between 820-380mb and a prominent capping inversion near 800 mb. Convection isn't likely through this afternoon, but would not be surprised to see a light shower pop up somewhere along the ECSB, especially southward. SWRLY morning winds have become ESE/SE along the Space/Treasure coasts. Winds are a little stronger northward and if the sea breeze develops across Volusia County it will likely be pinned near the coast. Loss of daylight heating/decreased instability tonight will make for only a small threat for showers in association with the aforementioned boundary to the north. And even then, the threat will remain greatest north of I-4 through sunrise. Periodic impulses traversing north-central FL will aid in any precip threat late tonight. Generally mild overnight with lows primarily ranging from the U50s to L60s. Models continue to show an increase in cloud cover overnight with ceilings lowering by sunrise across much of the area, but MOS guidance (aggressive) may be overdoing it. Considerable cloudiness will develop nearly areawide by daybreak Mon. Following frontal passage through the night, mainly SW winds will veer all the way around to NW/N. Mon...The front may venture a little further into south-central FL, but will become quasi-stationary near Lake Okeechobee. Mid-level impulses embedded in the nearly zonal flow aloft will ride across and north of the boundary through the day helping to promote scattered shower activity, likely showers north of I-4. Cannot rule out an isolated lightning storm, too, mainly north of I-4. N/NNE surface winds will be highest, near 15 mph with some higher gusts, across coastal Volusia and perhaps north Brevard. Cloud cover will encompass the entire CWA through the day. A wide range of max temperatures are expected with L-M60s north of I-4 with L80s possible further south across interior St. Lucie/Martin and eastern Okeechobee counties where cloud thickness will be a bit less. Monday Night-Wednesday...Unsettled pattern continues Monday night into Tuesday as stalled front sits over Central FL and the aforementioned shortwave slides east into the Atlantic waters. PoPs have once again trended downward with the latest model runs, leading to the highest coverage of rain north of the Treasure Coast at 40%, with a slight chance of thunder for areas north of Orlando overnight. By Tuesday, yet another shortwave develops off the northern FL coast, leading to additional lift and moisture across the central to southern peninsula. Again, rain chances take a slight downtrend on Tuesday, but still maintaining higher coverage north of I-4. Storm chances will be higher on Tues, with a Marginal Risk for severe weather in place for the peninsula as the shortwave finally sends the stalled front on its way southward. Fcst soundings still in support of sufficiently cool temps aloft, which could lead to some stronger convective development before Tues afternoon. By the late afternoon/evening hours, the front pushes south, veering post- frontal winds to the north and clearing any precip chances for Wednesday. A blanket of clouds on Tuesday will keep highs ranging from the upper 60s to the north, to low 80s across the Treasure Coast. Similar setup Wednesday, although mid 70s become more widespread with the post frontal airmass moving in. Lows Mon night in the upper 50s to low 60s dip to the low to mid 50s on Wednesday morning as the front clears the area. Thursday-Saturday...(modified) Dry, seasonable wx pattern thru late week before a weakening cold front pushes into the region and brings the next (low) chance for precip. The front may approach central FL by late Fri, but indications are the bulk of its energy will lift north of the area, leaving central FL with little more than the "scraps" of its trailing edge. Gradual warming trend to occur as sfc/low lvl winds veer from N/NE to S/SE by Fri/Sat. High temps climb higher each day, beginning in the low 80s Thursday reaching the mid to upper 80s by Saturday, with lows in the mid 60s following the same trend. && .AVIATION...Continued mainly VFR for much of the night, but models differ on ceilings. It does appear that moistening (top/bottom) of the atmosphere will occur overnight as the front progresses southward and occasional impulses traverse the north-central peninsula. Any shower threat appears greatest north of I-4 overnight. However, increased shower and isolated storm threat Mon- Tue of next week, some of which on Tue could be strong. && .MARINE...Afternoon-Tonight...Surface ridge axis continues to pull seaward as a cold front over north FL advances southward; just north of the local northern waters by early evening. This boundary will continue southward into the central and potentially southern coastal waters by daybreak Mon morning. Winds returning to SWRLY this evening will veer to northerly behind the front. Isolated showers over the Gulf Stream this afternoon. Shower activity possibly becoming scattered in nature Cape northward overnight. Winds generally AOB 15 kts, but northerly winds behind the front may increase to 15-17 kts offshore/north of the Volusia-Brevard County line. Seas 3-4 ft near shore and 4-5 ft Gulf Stream. Mon...Gradually deteriorating marine conditions from north to south behind a recent cold front as winds balance between N-NE increasing to 15-20 kts near shore north of Sebastian Inlet and 20 plus knots offshore north of the same point. Southward, winds appear to remain AOB 15 kts during the day, with varying direction depending on exact placement of the boundary. Seas will respond by building to 6-8 ft north of the Cape through the end of the day (offshore) and 5-6 ft near shore north of the Cape. Elsewhere seas may build to 3-5 ft. Tuesday-Wednesday...Another shortwave develops off the N FL coast Tues morning, sending a brief westerly wind surge across the offshore waters, increasing to 15-20 kts by midday. Swell will pull southward as well, with seas increasing 5-6 feet nearshore and up to 8 ft in the northern Gulf Stream as the trough slides eastward. Seas will gradually subside through Wednesday morning, becoming 4-5 ft nearshore and up to 6-7 ft offshore. Late Week...Slightly improving seas through the latter half of the week as high pressure slides in over the Deep South. Onshore winds veer southeasterly near 10 knots, with seas of 4-5 ft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 60 66 61 69 / 20 70 50 50 MCO 62 74 61 77 / 10 40 30 50 MLB 63 75 64 75 / 10 30 30 40 VRB 63 79 64 77 / 10 30 30 40 LEE 59 67 59 75 / 20 60 40 50 SFB 61 70 61 76 / 20 50 40 50 ORL 63 71 61 76 / 10 50 40 50 FPR 62 80 64 78 / 10 30 20 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sedlock LONG TERM/IMPACT WEATHER....Smith AVIATION...Sedlock  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KRNK 290704 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 304 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure across the Mid-Atlantic region will provide for mainly dry conditions through early Saturday. A cold front will move east across the region Saturday night into Sunday accompanied by rain showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM EDT Friday... Fair weather anticipated today and tonight, although with a bit more cloud cover compared to yesterday. An area of high pressure along the Atlantic Coast will remain our primary weather provider in the near term. The airmass is modifying with respect to uptick in surface dewpoints and temperatures. Return flow on the back side of the High has allowed for dewpoints to climb into the 30s. This in combination with 85H temperatures of +8 to +10 degree C should make for a relatively nice end to the work week with afternoon temperatures ranging from the 60s mountains to the lower to mid 70s piedmont... about 10 degrees above normal. There will be variable amounts of cloud cover today, courtesy of debris cloud remnants from shower/storm activity which developed over the mid part of the country yesterday, and carried downstream by the westerly winds aloft. This cloud element is of the mid (altocu) and upper (cirrus) variety and should not produce any measurable precip east of the Appalachian Divide. Some of the models do indicated potential for a sprinkle or two across our northwestern CWA, but model soundings suggest it will most likely be virga...probability of measurable of less than 20 percent. Never the less, during which time these cloud elements pass overhead, sky conditions may resemble bkn-ovc attms due to the overall thickness of the cirrus and altocu. For tonight, variable amounts of mid/upper level cloud is still be expected. This should interfere with the radiational cooling process and work in tandem with increasing dewpoints to result in milder overnight temperatures. Lows tonight may not dip much below 50 pending cloud thickness. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 145 PM EST Thursday... Broad southwest flow aloft anticipated through Saturday night. Cold front will extend from Maine to Florida by Sunday morning with ripples of low pressure along the boundary. Saturday ahead of the front 850MB temperatures will be in the +8 to +10 range so with any sufficient sun on Saturday maximum temperatures will be well into the 60s and 70s. But high clouds from the approaching front may limit heating. Any showers and thunderstorms will be confined to the southern Blue Ridge and far western mountains in the afternoon. A majority of the probability of precipitation will be after midnight Saturday night. Lead short wave coming out of the Pacific northwest phases with the northern stream upper trough over the northeast on Sunday morning. The trough axis moves offshore Sunday night. Decent cold air advection and pressure rises behind the cold front on Sunday night but low level jet was forecast to only be in the 25 to 30 knot range. Winds will increase from the northwest then north Sunday night but will not be excessive. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1240 PM EST Thursday... Short wave that originated in the Pacific will be over the southern Plains on Monday and will track east through the southern jet stream, reaching the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic region on Tuesday. Continue to see differing solutions with the location and intensity of this feature. ECMWF still slower and does not close off an upper low until the energy is off the East Coast. WPC was leaning toward the ECMWF and its ensembles for Tuesday and Wednesday in the east. Surface high pressure will be over the Ohio Valley Monday morning and over New England Tuesday morning and extending south into the southern Appalachians. Surface low pressure that forms in the Gulf will cross Florida late Monday night/early Tuesday and will be somewhere off the Carolina coast Wednesday morning. Location of the low will play a large part in how far west precipitation will extend into Virginia and North Carolina on Tuesday. Conditions will be favorable for winds to decouple and for good radiation Monday night. After that the air mass gradually warms. Partial thickness forecast off the ECMWF shows some potential Tuesday night for winter type precipitation. Will hold in cloud cover through Wednesday so will stay at or just below guidance for maximum temperatures, then more sun and near normal Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Friday... Expecting VFR through sunset Saturday evening. There will be periods of mid/upper level cloud elements due to debris cloudiness drifting downstream from remnant shower/storm activity over the mid section of the country. Winds will generally be under 10 kts today, although models do show an early morning jet-like surge of wind over the mountains of about 25-30kts in a layer between 2000-5000 feet AGL. This jet mixes out between 14Z/10AM and 19Z/3PM and may result in an occasional surface gust of 15-20kts during that time frame. Forecast Confidence through 24 hour valid taf period is High. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... VFR expected until the arrival of a cold front Saturday night. A period of MVFR CIGs is anticipated early Sunday along with sub-VFR visibilities associated with the frontal and post- frontal showers. A transition back to VFR is expected late Sunday into Monday with a primary flight category of VFR expected Monday. Model consensus is for a coastal storm to impact the Mid- Atlantic region Tuesday with high uncertainty as to the westward extent of the Sub-VFR sensible weather. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...AMS AVIATION...PM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KSGX 272041 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 141 PM PDT Wed Mar 27 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy in the mountains and deserts through Thursday, with marine clouds pushing into the foothills tonight. High pressure aloft near the West Coast will create a warming trend Friday through Sunday with weak offshore winds below passes and canyons. A low pressure system moving inland across California on Tuesday will bring a cooling trend for Monday through Wednesday with a slight chance of mostly light precipitation for late Tuesday into Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... At 1 PM, water vapor satellite showed an upper-level low just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, with a trough moving across southern CA. A few isolated areas of sprinkles are possible tonight over the coastal basin as a deep marine layer develops and coastal low clouds push into the foothills. Breezy westerly winds will continue across portions of the desert mountain slopes into adjacent deserts through early Friday, with gusts to 45 mph expected. Cooler weather, with highs around 5 degrees below normal, will continue through Thursday. Weak ridging builds in aloft just to our west Friday through the weekend, with weak to locally moderate offshore flow at the surface. North to northeast wind gusts of 25-35 mph and local gusts to 45 mph are possible below mountain passes and canyons in San Bernardino and Orange Counties, mainly in the mornings. The offshore flow and ridging aloft will help high temperatures increase 5 to 10 degrees above normal by Sunday, with highs in the low to mid 80s for inland valleys and the low 90s for areas of the Coachella Valley. The ridge breaks down early next week as an upper-level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. The ECMWF takes the trough along the CA coast, generating light showers over southern CA Tuesday night, while the GFS keeps the trough more inland, with dry weather across SW CA. The latest ECMWF is backing off of the idea of precip for our area, but we'll keep a slight chance of showers in the forecast for the middle of next week until the models come into better agreement. With lowering heights and increased onshore flow, expect high temperatures to lower to just below seasonal normals and a return of onshore winds early to mid- next week. && .AVIATION... 272000Z...Coasts/Valleys...SCT-BKN high clouds will prevail through the afternoon with unrestricted vis. Cloud thicknesses continuing to decrease from northwest to southeast. Coastal TAF in San Diego County will have the most trouble clearing today. Low clouds redeveloping after 03Z and extending into inland valleys with bases above 1500 FT MSL with moderate confidence. Mountains/Deserts...High clouds AOA 20000 FT MSL in the Coachella Valley and SD County deserts slowly clearing through the afternoon. Unrestricted vis will continue through the evening. && .MARINE... Northwest winds could locally gust 20 kts or slightly above Thursday and Friday evenings, producing locally hazardous boating conditions. Otherwise, no hazardous marine weather is expected through Sunday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...JJT AVIATION/MARINE...APR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KHGX 081201 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 601 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2019 .AVIATION... Northern hub IFR decks with more southern terminals falling into LIFR ceilings this morning. Cloud thickness and surface winds too strong to allow any inland fog to form. Areas of sea fog are still present but not locally dense. An approaching upper trough will increase the late day into early Saturday chances for either drizzle or light showers. Southelry winds in the 15 knot range with a mid to late afternoon breakout to VFR. 31 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CST Fri Mar 8 2019/ DISCUSSION... Skies remain cloudy across Southeast Texas early this morning. Elevated south winds are helping to keep temperatures from falling with 3 AM readings in the mid to upper 60s inland and in the low to mid 60s at the beaches. Some shower development can be expected today, and a round of showers/thunderstorms will be possible tonight through tomorrow morning. The greatest risk for any strong/severe storms is expected to be off to our north and northeast as a storm system and associated cold front moves across the Southern Plains. A more stable airmass in place on Saturday night should keep much of the area dry, but look for possible rain development again on Sunday with a front lingering around. Rain chances will remain in the forecast for the next several days as east to southeast winds strengthen and precipitable water values rise while the next storm system organizes out west. This system's cold front looks to bring a round of showers/thunderstorms across the area Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. This front is currently expected to hold up across the area on Thursday resulting in a continued chance of rain. Above normal temperatures (especially overnight lows) can be expected until the end of next week. 42 MARINE... A persistent healthy onshore flow will occur through the day over average to 3 to 4 foot significant (Gulf) wave heights / slight bay chop. Periods of sea fog will be patchy at best with the greatest chances for more areawide dense sea fog development on Saturday night and lingering on into early next week. A northern storm system passage late Saturday will weaken winds and swing them east by Sunday night. These weaker easterlies will be conducive for the formation of evening and overnight early morning dense fog over the local bays and nearshore waters. Mid week southerlies are forecast to strengthen to Advisory levels ahead of the next Plains storm system. This system will pass off to the east by late Wednesday with the arrival of a reinforcing cold front a week from now on Friday. This front is anticipated to actually veer moderate to strong late week winds offshore. These Caution/Advisory level northerlies will continue well into next weekend. 31 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 79 66 79 55 73 / 20 50 60 0 40 Houston (IAH) 77 67 79 62 75 / 40 30 40 10 30 Galveston (GLS) 69 64 69 63 69 / 40 20 20 10 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following zones: Coastal Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Matagorda Islands. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay. && $$ Discussion...42 Aviation/Marine...31  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KPHI 060920 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 420 AM EST Wed Mar 6 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue slowly building into the region from the west through Thursday when a weak wave of low pressure passes north of our area. Low pressure will pass across the Mid-Atlantic on Friday then high pressure will build from the north into Saturday. Much stronger low pressure is forecast to track across the Great Lakes Sunday. A cold front will follow in the wake of this system late Sunday and again on Monday then high pressure builds early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Strong vort max is pivoting through New York and New England early this morning, with a cold front sweeping through the Mid-Atlantic this past evening. Had a few reports of some flurries in Delmarva and southern New Jersey as well as the more usual spots (the Poconos and northwest New Jersey). Winds picked up for a time, as well, with some gusts of 35-45 mph observed in several spots, especially in Delmarva. As cold advection continues, diurnal heating this morning will quickly allow for the winds to increase once again, with gusts today of 25-35 mph common. Clouds will increase quickly this morning, spreading southeastward through most of PA/NJ. Models look mostly dry for today, but an analysis of projected soundings suggests potential for isolated snow showers. Mixing to 850-800 mb will be possible during the day, allowing for some shallow/meager instability to develop. With saturation in this 850- 800 mb layer, would not be surprised to see some flakes this afternoon in some locations, especially north of Philly. With decent winds aloft, cannot rule out an isolated squall either. Again, models are not impressive regarding this potential, but they tend to be underdone in these sorts of environments. Added some slight- chance PoPs for snow showers this afternoon generally north of a Reading-Philly-Atlantic City line, though the best potential would likely be north of I-78, in closer proximity to somewhat stronger large-scale lift downstream of a reinforcing vort max approaching the area late this afternoon. Temperatures will be cold today, with cold advection and increasing cloudiness likely precluding temperatures from reaching freezing in much of the area (except portions of Delmarva). Temperatures will likely remain near/below 20 degrees in the Poconos. With strong winds today, wind chills will be low, generally in the single digits and teens, with near-zero to sub-zero readings prevailing in the Poconos. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... Weak vort max should shift southeastward from the area this evening with any snow showers quickly diminishing/exiting the area, leaving briefly improving skies and weakening winds as a surface ridge noses into the area. However, a strong vort max will be quick to reach the area late tonight, with clouds increasing again. Another cold night is expected, though with winds likely staying somewhat elevated and cloud cover increasing late, temperatures will not drop as low as they could in ideal radiational cooling conditions. Nevertheless, anomalous cold will continue, with lows in the single digits in the Poconos and adjacent areas, and teens to lower 20s elsewhere. With the approaching vort max late tonight, some flurries or light snow showers may occur in the Poconos and far northwest New Jersey late. Otherwise, this period should be dry. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Cold weather in place for the midweek period as Arctic high pressure will encompass the eastern half of the Nation. Highs on Thursday will generally be in the 20s and 30s, then lows Thursday night will be several degrees warmer than Wednesday night. With some shortwave energy passing across the region, cannot rule out some snow showers across northern zones, perhaps even to the I-95 corridor. Will keep PoPs capped at slight chance for late Wednesday night and Thursday with a mention of flurries farther south and east of there, although some heavier snow showers may be possible. Will need to monitor this in the coming forecast updates. High pressure moves offshore Thursday night, and then return flow sets up behind the departing high on Friday. A weak mid-level trough and shortwave energy moving through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will allow for weak low pressure to develop, and this low passes through the region Friday, departing offshore and strengthening somewhat Friday night. Models show this system as fairly moisture starved, so not expecting much in the way of QPF. Temps will be cold enough for snow to develop everywhere initially Friday morning, and then the rain/snow line should lift along/north of I-95 by Friday afternoon. Will have to watch the position of the offshore high, as it may end up being strong enough to keep measurable precip from moving into the region until late Friday morning or even early Friday afternoon. Winds shift to the NW behind the departing low as high pressure builds, allowing for a return to colder air into the region, so any precip that changes to rain should change back to snow before ending. Kept PoPs capped at high end chance with the higher confidence of precip occuring more toward the south and west, but think these will need to be bumped up to likely for some locales within the next forecast cycle or two. With such light QPF expected, snow should be light as well, generally less than an inch, and most locations will not even get that much. Highs rebound somewhat on Friday, ranging from the upper 20s/low 30s north and west of the Fall Line, to the upper 30s and low 40s elsewhere. Precip will taper off Friday evening. A very pleasant, sunny, and dry Saturday on tap with high pressure ridging down from the north and temperatures returning back into the 40s, possibly near 50 in some spots to the south. Clouds will being increasing from the west into Saturday evening. Another system ejects from the Rocky Mountains and into the Central Plains on Saturday, and moves northeast towards the Great Lakes Saturday night. A warm front will extend out ahead of that low and push towards the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by Sunday morning. A secondary low will form south of the region and lift through during the day. Depending on when the first waves of precip move into the region, could have some snow, or at least a wintry mix, at the onset for all but Delmarva and extreme southern New Jersey late Saturday night. By Sunday morning, enough warm air spreads to the north to allow precip to change to all rain. Could have some periods of moderate to locally heavy rain Sunday afternoon and evening as the secondary low develops over the area. This system departs Sunday night, and then a cold front passes through the region Monday morning as the primary low passes to the north and east of the region. High pressure then builds east for the start of the new work week with mild, dry, and mostly clear conditions expected. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...Mainly VFR, though should see CIGs around 4000-7000 feet develop/spread southeastward during the day. Cannot rule out a stray/brief snow shower either, especially at ABE, late this morning into this afternoon. Main impact will be from the winds, however, with northwest speeds 10 to 20 kts with gusts to 25+ kts at times. Moderate confidence with winds and CIGs; low confidence with potential for snow showers (too low for TAF mention at this point). Tonight...VFR with northwest winds diminishing to around/below 10 kts. Outlook... Thursday and Thursday night...VFR with W winds 10 to 15 kts gusting up to 25 kts. Winds will decrease and become light and variable during the overnight hours. High confidence. Friday...Light snow/rain developing with MVFR probable and IFR conditions possible. Light and variable wind becoming SE around 5 kts by late morning. Moderate confidence. Friday night and Saturday...Conditions improving to VFR Friday evening. Light and variable winds becoming N around 5 kts then shifting east on Saturday. Moderate confidence. Saturday night through Sunday night...Widespread rain and clouds with IFR conditions expected by late Sunday. S wind 10-15 kts shifting west Sunday evening. Moderate confidence. Monday...Conditions improving to VFR. W winds 10-20 kts with higher gusts possible. Moderate confidence. && .MARINE... Cold front came through last evening, with northwest winds nearing gale criteria on Delaware Bay for a time early this morning. Advisory-level northwest winds will continue through most of tonight across the waters, though they should slowly diminish starting this evening. Decided to extend the advisory for Delaware Bay through 1 am and for the Atlantic waters through 6 am, as models tend to diminish winds in northwest flow too quickly during the overnight hours. Despite the strong winds, offshore flow should prevent seas from being much more than 2 to 4 feet today near the coast. The cold northwest flow will promote the development of light freezing spray today and tonight, though this will be on the downward trend late as winds begin to diminish slowly. Outlook... Thursday through Saturday...Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the entire outlook period. Seas are expected to build to 4-5 feet with winds also increasing late Saturday as the next storm system approaches. Sunday and Sunday night...SCA conditions likely developing by Sunday morning. && .CLIMATE... We had a question about what the lowest Max temperatures are for tomorrow and if we will have any record low Max T's. It looks like we will be 3 or 4 degrees above these lowest Maxs inmost areas. I will show the values below anyhow, FYI. Lowest MaxT and year of occurrence. RDG 23 (2015), ABE 22 (2007), TTN 23 (1872), PHL 21 (1901) ILG 26 (2015), ACY 27 (2015 and MPO 10 (2007) && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ430-431. && $$ Synopsis...Staarmann Near Term...CMS Short Term...CMS Long Term...MPS/Staarmann Aviation...CMS/Staarmann Marine...CMS/Staarmann Climate...O'Hara  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KPHI 050905 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 405 AM EST Tue Mar 5 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure will pass off to our north late Tuesday then high pressure builds into the region through Thursday. Low pressure will pass close to our area on Friday then much stronger low pressure will track across the Great Lakes Sunday. A cold front will follow in the wake of this system late Sunday then high pressure builds into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Longwave trough is now well-established across eastern North America, with a surface high barreling down the Front Range today. Downstream, a weak low in the Great Lakes region and adjacent southeast Canada will move eastward as a fairly potent vort max pivots into New York and New England tonight. Some light snow showers should develop in advance of these features, but the system is quite moisture-starved, and the strongest lift will remain northwest of the CWA. Nevertheless, models tend to underestimate the lift available to generate some light precipitation on the southeast periphery of these systems, so I would not be surprised to see some periods of flurries or even light snow showers in the Poconos and vicinity, especially this afternoon as the system approaches the region. Kept mention of flurries in these areas this afternoon. Temperature forecast is not particularly easy, as increasing cloudiness will complicate the diurnal trends today. Timing and cloud thickness will be important factors regarding maximum temperatures. Model guidance is reasonably agreeable, though with notable spread. Generally used a consensus approach, but did weigh the better-performing guidance overnight highly with today's forecast. This resulted in little change from continuity, with 20s expected northwest of the Fall Line and 30s to the southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The vort max will make the move eastward through New England and far southeast Canada tonight, and the strongest lift will move off to the northeast of the area beyond the evening hours. Any remaining flurries/snow showers in the northern CWA should wane after midnight. An attendant cold front will move through the area this evening, with winds becoming more northwesterly and possibly remaining decently elevated through the overnight hours. This should prevent temperatures from plummeting too rapidly, but make no mistake. It will be cold. Used colder-based guidance for lows tonight, but did not go as low as the lowest guidance given the expected lack of complete decoupling. Anticipating lows in the single digits in the Poconos, and the teens to around 20 everywhere else. Sheltered valley locations may be locally colder, by as much as or more than five degrees from nearby sites. With the anticipated winds, wind chills will generally be in the single digits, with sub-zero readings in the Poconos. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Fairly quiet weather is expected for much of the upcoming work weak, with increasing potential for some unsettled weather for the end of the work week and later in the weekend. A weak surface low departing out to sea early Wednesday will push a weak cold front/surface troughing through our area on Wednesday. High pressure remains to our south, which will keep a steady northwest flow. Most of the area will be dry, however, with the steady northwest flow developing, lake effect snow showers/flurries may make their way into far northeastern Pennsylvania and northwestern New Jersey overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure across the Upper Mississippi Wednesday night will shift to our south and combine with high pressure to our south later Wednesday through Thursday. This will keep the steady northwest flow and the chance of snow showers/flurries for our northern areas. This high pressure will briefly build across our area Thursday, bringing light winds and quiet conditions. However, this looks to be short lived. An area of low pressure is forecast to move out of the central states and across the central Appalachians toward the Mid-Atlantic region Friday into Friday night. There is slight differences with the timing and strength of this low, and in turn the amount of precipitation. There is a chance of precipitation for the whole area, however, the highest probability is for southern New Jersey and Delmarva. Depending on how early the precipitation starts, it may start out as snow. Then depending on how far north it moves, southern New Jersey and Delmarva would likely change over to rain later in the day and overnight, while areas farther north should likely remain snow if the precipitation moves far enough north. Quiet weather is expected for Saturday into Saturday night as high pressure moves to our north, with our area on the southern edge of the high. This quiet weather is expected to be temporary however. As we go into Sunday and Sunday night, an area of low pressure will be moving across the Great Lakes region, which will lift a warm front across the area, before a cold front sweeps through. Depending on how early the precipitation starts, it may start as a snow, sleet, or freezing rain mixture for portions of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey, before temperatures warm up everywhere and change the precipitation to all rain. The remainder of the area is expected to remain all rain. For Monday, strong northwest flow is expected to develop again as low pressure lifts to our northeast. Mostly dry conditions should return to the area, although flurries/snow showers are possible for portions of northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR with northwest winds becoming more westerly or southwesterly by late this morning, with speeds around 10 kts. May see some gusts to 20 kts or so, especially at KPHL. Increasing mid and high clouds during the day, but expecting these to remain above MVFR thresholds. High confidence. Tonight...VFR with winds becoming northwest around 10 kts, though higher gusts may occur. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Wednesday through Thursday night...VFR expected. NW winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts especially Wednesday morning and early afternoon. Moderate confidence. Friday...Conditions likely lowering, possibly to IFR, throughout the day with a chance of rain/snow. Winds SE less than 5 kts. Moderate confidence. Saturday...MVFR conditions may linger, especially early, but precipitation is expected to end by daybreak. Low confidence. && .MARINE... Winds are now below advisory criteria across the waters, though gusts are still occasionally flirting with 25 kts near Sandy Hook. Expect the diminishing trend to continue through this morning as winds become more southwesterly. However, they will ramp right back up late in the day, as directions return to a more westerly or northwesterly direction by this evening. Advisory conditions should return tonight from north to south, with gusts approaching 30 kts late tonight. Have issued a small craft advisory starting at 6 pm for the northern New Jersey coastal waters and starting at 10 pm for Delaware Bay and the southern New Jersey and Delaware Atlantic waters. Seas should remain under 5 feet, though they may approach this threshold late tonight. Some light freezing spray may occur early this morning, although not much has been observed so far. Better chances exist tonight as stronger winds pick up late, and temperatures drop well below freezing. Outlook... Wednesday and Wednesday night...SCA conditions expected to last with winds gusting 25-28 kts through much of the day and lingering into the evening hours over the ocean waters. Seas are expected to remain below 5 feet. Thursday...Winds may gust up to 25 kts during the day, otherwise sub SCA expected. Thursday night through Saturday...Sub-SCA conditions expected during this entire period. Winds and seas will build late Saturday night ahead of the next approaching system on Sunday. && .CLIMATE... Here are the record lows and average lows for the climate sites for March 5: Site Average Low Record Low Allentown 26 8/1948 Atlantic City 30 10/2009, 1978 Georgetown 32 11/1978 Mount Pocono 22 -4/1912 Philadelphia 31 5/1872 Reading 28 5/1978 Trenton 29 4/1872 Wilmington 30 7/1978 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ452>455. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Thursday for ANZ450-451. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ430-431. && $$ Synopsis...Staarmann Near Term...CMS Short Term...CMS Long Term...Robertson/Staarmann Aviation...CMS/Staarmann Marine...CMS/Staarmann Climate...MPS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KPHI 270853 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 353 AM EST Wed Feb 27 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will begin retreating today as a weak low pressure system approaches the area from the west. This system will affect the region through tonight, then high pressure returns briefly on Thursday. Another weak low pressure system will pass south of our area Thursday night into early Friday with a stronger low to follow on Saturday as it moves northeast through the Ohio Valley into the northeastern US. A cold front is expected to follow in its wake early Sunday then high pressure returns early next week. A coastal low may impact the area Tuesday of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes builds east today, then moves towards the Gulf of Maine later today. Meanwhile, weak low pressure over the Midwest will lift towards the Ohio Valley, and this pushes a warm front towards the region as the day progresses. Quite dry across the region with surface dewpoints in the single digits for the northern half of the forecast area, and in the teens and low 20s across the southern half. Despite light onshore flow, with light northeast winds this morning gradually veering to the southeast later this afternoon, it will take some time for the lower levels of the atmosphere to moisten up enough to support precip. Current dewpoint depressions are on the order of 10-15 degrees. Although surface temps will rise later this morning, it will take quite some time for the surface dewpoints to rise as well. So there could be a period where dewpoint depressions will be on the order of 15-20 degrees, so any precip that develops this morning, mainly across the far northern zones, may dry up before reaching the ground. Latest radar shows some returns across the northern areas, but surface obs not recording precip. Will carry chance PoPs for the northern zones, but for light snow, mainly this morning. Dry slot then lifts north this afternoon. PoPs up north generally decrease. Warm front continues to lift north through the day, and should be through the southern half of the forecast area by early evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... Low pressure over western Pennsylvania and West Virginia will track to the north and east tonight, then moves offshore by daybreak Thursday. High pressure remains to the north of the area. Snow increases over the far northern zones this evening, and will likely result in a couple of inches of snow accumulation this evening. The heaviest of the snow should arrive after the evening commute. Elsewhere, with midlevel warming, and potential evaporational cooling for most of the area, for areas along and south of I-78, can expect a quick shot of snow, changing to sleet and freezing rain. However, important to note that QPF amounts are quite low. So not expecting much in the way of icing, but there may be a glaze, generally between I-195 and I-80, after the evening commute this evening. Since snow amounts in the far northern zones will range from 1-2", and the confidence is low on freezing rain/icing potential from I-80 to I-195, will not issue a Winter Weather Advisory at this time. Precip ends by daybreak Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure will be offshore by Thursday morning and high pressure will build from the west bringing fair weather, near average temperatures, and dry air on Thursday. Thursday night into early Friday, a shortwave is forecast to move through the region in advance of a deepening trough across the Great Lakes. Forecast models differ quite substantially even at this range regarding details for this system. The GFS and ECMWF have a weaker and thus faster/drier wave whereas the NAM/NAMNest have a stronger and thus slower/wetter wave. However, the latest ECMWF run has trended back to a slightly wetter solution again. To this end, forecast confidence remains low for this potential wintry event. Given the subtle nature of the shortwave, will favor a slightly slower and wetter solution in the forecast. As far a p-type, a mix of snow/sleet/rain appears probable across our southern Delmarva counties and Cape May County with all snow elsewhere. Given the placement of the surface low to our south offshore of NC/VA, it appears the highest QPF will be favored across Delmarva and far southern NJ. Snow accumulations are currently expected to remain light with a coating of snow possible across the entire forecast area Thursday night into Friday morning, but may reach advisory criteria (~2" or more) in some locales, especially northern Delmarva, SE PA, and southern NJ. This system has the potential to impact the Friday morning commute. High temps Friday will be dependent on exactly how much snow falls, but should reach into the upper 30s, perhaps lower 40s, outside of the Poconos. Friday night through Tuesday... The pattern remains active over the weekend and into early next week as a long wave ridge moves from the central into the eastern CONUS while a long wave ridge builds over western Canada. This will also favor temperatures trending below average by early next week. In terms of the details, the next low pressure system looks to affect the area later Friday night into Saturday as a primary low moves NE through the Ohio Valley with a secondary low potentially developing off the coast by later Saturday. This setup should favor a warmer, mainly rain scenario but there could be some snow or mixed precip at the onset...especially north of the I-95 corridor. Precip may also end as a rain/snow mix or all snow early Sunday, especially toward the north. Following this system a cold front moves through by early Sunday bringing in colder drier conditions. Highs Saturday should be mainly in the 40s with highs by Sunday looking to be about 5-10 degrees colder. Heading into the late Sunday into next Monday time frame, long wave trough will be setting up over the east with a baroclinic zone south of the area. The potential exists for a storm system to developing to our south along this baroclinic zone and potentially affect the area with some snow by Sunday night into Monday, but at this time forecast confidence is low on this. This system should be off to our east by next Tuesday with the main story by this time being colder temperatures as temps look to be a good 10 degrees below average. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR with CIGs lowering from around 15000 ft to around 5000 ft. There is a slight chance for light snow at KABE, but confidence is too low to mention in the TAF at this time. NE winds less than 10 kt, veering to the SE later today. Tonight...MVFR/IFR CIGs develop this evening. A wintry mix of snow, then sleet and freezing rain, will impact the northern terminals. Possible for conditions to be dry at KILG/KMIV/KACY, or a brief period of light wintry mix, then light rain. LGT/VRB winds. Outlook... Thursday...VFR with N winds 5 to 10 kts. High confidence. Thursday night through Friday...Light snow developing overnight, mainly I-95 corridor terminals and south, with MVFR to IFR conditions possible. NE winds 5 to 10 kts turning E later in the day. Moderate confidence. Friday night through Saturday night...Widespread rain developing by the morning with conditions MVFR with IFR probable. Snow may mix in Friday night for northern terminals. E winds around 5 kts becoming light and variable during the day then becoming W 5 to 10 kts Saturday night. Low confidence. Sunday...Becoming VFR. NW winds 10-20 kts. && .MARINE... Today and tonight...Sub-SCA conditions with NE winds this morning at 10-20 kt, veering to the SE 5-10 kt later today. Winds become NW 10- 15 kt late tonight. Outlook... Wednesday through Saturday...Sub-SCA conditions are expected through this period. Seas are expected to build to 4-5 feet Friday into Saturday as the next storm system approaches. Saturday night through Sunday...SCA conditions possible by late Saturday night into Sunday as NW winds increase to 15-25 knots. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Staarmann Near Term...MPS Short Term...MPS Long Term...Fitzsimmons/Staarmann Aviation...MPS/Staarmann Marine...MPS/Staarmann  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KPHI 260851 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 351 AM EST Tue Feb 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue building in from the west through tonight yielding fair weather. A weak low pressure system will affect the region Wednesday and Wednesday night, then high pressure returns briefly on Thursday. More unsettled weather is expected Friday and into the weekend with another system potentially developing and passing south or west of the region. High pressure returns early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Low pressure near the Canadian Maritimes continues to drift out to sea today. Meanwhile, high pressure over the Northern Plains will build into the Great Lakes today. Northwest pressure gradient will relax this morning, and west winds will average 5-10 mph, except 10-20 mph along the NJ shore and up in the higher elevations of the Pocono Mountains. A mid-level stratocu deck will overspread the region throughout the day. Going into the afternoon, winds increase again, averaging 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Highs today will be in the 20s in the southern Poconos, and otherwise in the mid 30s to mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/... The center of the high moves from the northern Great Lakes and into northern New York state late tonight. Cloudy skies will keep strong radiational cooling conditions from developing, but lows will be in the teens north and west of the Fall Line, and otherwise in the 20s. Isolated snow showers may move into the southern Poconos prior to daybreak Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Long term period starts off with high pressure centered across Upstate New York with largely zonal flow aloft across the eastern US, which is expected through the end of the week. The high will move continue to move slowly eastward eventually weakening and pushing offshore Wednesday night. A shortwave trough will pass quickly off to our north late Wednesday and early Thursday. This shortwave will bring some light precipitation to our area, however it appears that there will be some drier mid-level air in place across the central and southern portion of the forecast area. The 00Z medium range guidance suite indicates the deepest moisture plumes and forcing will remain focused primarily toward the northern part of our area, where precip is most likely to occur, with a weak low pressure center passing over the southern portion of the forecast area. Thermodynamic profiles indicate this precip will fall as all snow, especially along and north of I-95. Some light rain/snow showers (perhaps even mixed with sleet) may be possible south of I-95, mainly across far southern NJ, Wednesday evening. The most widespread snowfall should move through late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Snow should end from west to east before daybreak Thursday morning. Have adjusted the forecast to reflect this accordingly. A coating of snow (up to 2" in the far north) is expected generally along and north of I-78 Wednesday and Wednesday night for northern NJ and the Poconos, and perhaps a dusting in the Lehigh Valley. The aforementioned low will push out to sea Wednesday night and high pressure will return briefly on Thursday bringing fair weather and near average temperatures. Early Friday, another shortwave is forecast to move through the region in advance of a deepening trough across the Great Lakes. With high pressure still in place at the surface and thus cooler and relatively dry air, this feature has the potential to bring another quick round of light precipitation to our area late Thursday night and early Friday. As far a p-type, a mix of rain and snow appears probable possible across southern Delmarva and far southern NJ with all snow elsewhere. If the forecast trends a bit colder/drier, p-type may be all snow for the entire forecast area. It appears the highest QPF will be favored across Delmarva and far southern NJ, where surface conditions are not forecast to be favorable for notable accumulations. Any snow accumulations are currently expected to remain light with a coating of snow possible across the entire forecast area, but may reach advisory criteria in some locales if QPF trends wetter over the next few forecast cycles. Another round of rain is probable Saturday with a rapid cool down behind a passing cold front into Sunday. Guidance has trended a bit weaker and slower with the surface low associated with this system, so not expecting much in the way of a high wind threat as with the currently outgoing system. High pressure with origins from central Canada will push eastward across the northeastern US bring fair and colder weather Sunday into early next week. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR/BKN100-200. NW winds around 10 kt this morning, increasing to 10-15 kt with 20-25 kt gusts in the afternoon. Tonight...VFR. BKN CIGs lowering to 7000-9000 feet. Winds become light and variable. Outlook... Wednesday and Wednesday night...Light snow with sub-VFR conditions probable north of I-95. Light winds. Moderate confidence. Thursday...VFR with N winds 5 to 10 kts. Moderate confidence. Thursday night through Friday night...Snow/rain showers with MVFR to IFR conditions possible. E winds 5 to 15 kts. Low confidence. Saturday and Saturday night...Widespread rain and clouds with conditions MVFR with IFR probable. Light southerly winds becoming west to northwest and increasing to 10-20 kts overnight. Low confidence. && .MARINE... Will cancel the Low Water Advisory for Delaware Bay as low tide has passed, and water levels will begin to rebound. SCA remains in effect for the NJ ocean waters until 7 am for the southern NJ ocean waters and will extend the SCA until 4 pm for the northern NJ ocean waters. Tuesday...Winds and seas decreasing later in the day. Wednesday through Saturday...Sub-SCA conditions are expected through the entire outlook period. Seas are expected to build to 4-5 feet Friday into Saturday as the next storm system approaches. Wind may approach SCA criteria late Saturday night into Sunday. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ452- 453. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ450- 451. && $$ Synopsis...Staarmann Near Term...MPS Short Term...MPS Long Term...Staarmann Aviation...MPS/Staarmann Marine...MPS/Staarmann  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KGRB 212059 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 259 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday Issued at 258 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019 Fairly quiet weather through much of the short-term portion of the forecast, which will be the calm before the upcoming weekend winter storm. Tonight into Friday: The weather during this time period will be largely controlled by a surface ridge. This will keep the weather fairly quiet, in regards to any precipitation. Aloft, the area will be under near zonal flow to begin with; however, the western Great Lakes will be just ahead of falling heights overnight into Friday. This will lead to increased west to southwesterly flow into the area just above the surface. The main impact this would have is an increase in cloud cover as moisture to the southwest of the area begins advecting in. This would likely be mid to high clouds, which will generally have an impact on temperatures; however, there will be an increase in cloud thickness from the west late Friday afternoon. This will be ahead of the next system. Overnight lows may be a bit tricky tonight as this will be highly dependent upon cloud cover. Current thinking is that mid to high clouds will be reinforced across the area, helping to keep temps a bit higher; therefore, opted not to go with the coldest guidance, but did trend a little colder. If the clouds are too thin or take a while to come in, then temperatures could tank overnight. .LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday Issued at 258 PM CST Thu Feb 21 2019 Focus in this part of the forecast remains on the winter storm due to impact the region this weekend. The forecast track of the cyclone has been quite steady over the past 24 hours, judging by looking at the gfs ensemble mean, and favor the ecmwf for the details. Friday night and Saturday...A 35 kt low level jet is anticipated to develop over the northern Mississippi Valley and push east across the state on Friday night. Increasing elevated moisture transport and mid-level fgen will lead to light precip spreading in from the west after midnight over central and north-central WI but may wait until after 12z Sat before moving into eastern WI. Timing has slowed down some over the past 24 hours, but still appears that all areas will have a chance of light snow late Friday night into Saturday morning. Up to an inch appears possible with best chances over north-central WI. As the warm advection pushes east of the region by mid to late morning, models insist on mid-level moisture scouring out, while levels below 700-800mb remain saturated. This setup is favorable for periods of drizzle through the rest of the day. Temperatures should begin to rise above freezing over eastern WI by 9-10 am, so the threat of freezing drizzle should be rather minimal. But with temps not warming above 32F until midday or early afternoon across the far north, could see a freezing drizzle threat for a few hours. Under cloudy skies, highs on Saturday will warm into the mid 30s at most locations. Saturday night and Sunday...An intensifying area of low pressure remains on track to move from northern Missouri to northern Lake Michigan on Saturday night. Strong forcing on the nose of a 50-60 kt low level jet and differential positive vorticity advection will push heavy precip from southwest to northeast across the area from mid to late evening. Wouldnt be surprising to see some thunder as well, given the mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7.5 c/km. Thermal profiles suggest mainly rain across eastern WI as this heavy precip arrives, snow across north-central WI, and a wintry mix in between. As the upper cyclone moves overhead, cooling temperatures should lead precip changing from rain to snow from northwest to southeast late Saturday night over eastern WI. However, snowfall is expected to be very heavy across central and north-central WI, with an inch per hour snowfall rates likely. 6 to 10 inches of accumulations will be possible by morning over the north. The heaviest snow will most likely have pushed off to the north by mid Sunday morning, but gusty northwest winds to 40 or 45 mph will likely lead to hazardous conditions continuing through the afternoon. Blowing and drifting snow could become a significant concern, particularly over central WI which is more prone to this type of hazard than further north. In the end, 8 to 12 inches looks likely across north-central WI from the system, 5 to 8 inches over central WI, while amounts may only reach 1 to 3 or 2 to 4 inches over eastern WI. Rest of the forecast...Some light snow showers may linger over far northern WI on Sunday night. Otherwise, winds will remain gusty through through the night, which may lead to some minor blowing and drifting of the new snow, particularly on north-south oriented highways. The colder air will trail the system, and push into the area on Monday. Highs will on rise into the low to mid teens. Although high pressure will build into the area on Monday night, a weak system will bring a chance of widespread light snow to the area on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Some accumulations appear possible, perhaps an inch or two. The flow will remain out of the northwest for the rest of the week, which will keep temps below normal. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1123 AM CST Thu Feb 21 2019 Outside of a few flurries, fairly quiet weather expected through the short-term portion of the forecast. The biggest concern will be low to mid cloud potential through tonight. VFR/MVFR conditions are noted at most TAF sites this morning; however, RHI has been generally staying around 1500 ft ceilings. That patch of clouds extends farther west int northwest WI, so the ceilings will likely linger for a good portion of the afternoon. CWA and AUW could end up seeing some MVFR ceilings at times, as there are some lower clouds upstream, but they have had trouble advancing very far east this morning. The rest of the TAF sites will likely remain VFR. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM.....Cooley LONG TERM......MPC AVIATION.......Cooley  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KOKX 061200 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 700 AM EST Wed Feb 6 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure passes to the north today followed by a warm front approaching from the south this evening. The front will stay to our south as a wave of low pressure moves along it tonight into Thursday. A warm front moves across the region Thursday night into Friday morning, followed by a cold front Friday afternoon. Canadian high pressure then builds in Friday night into the weekend. A series of lows may impact the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Forecast on track early this morning as cooler and drier air continues to work into the region. The push of this air comes as high pressure builds to the north. The high will slide east towards the Canadian Maritimes as ridge axis aloft shifts offshore this afternoon. Warm advection begins to strengthen this afternoon ahead of an approaching middle level shortwave. The warm advection will solidify a warm nose aloft and lower and thicken clouds late in the day. The shortwave will begin to send a warm front towards the region by this evening. Much of the day will be dry with rain spreading in from the west towards evening. High temperatures will range from around 40 degrees across the Lower Hudson Valley, southern Connecticut to the lower and middle 40s across NYC, NE New Jersey and Long Island. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Main concern this evening into the overnight revolves around potential freezing rain across the interior. This potential is greatest north of Interstate 84. Rain will initially be predominate across the entire area, but as temperatures cool from wet-bulbing, some of the aforementioned locations could drop to near freezing. Confidence is not high on duration of any temperatures getting to freezing. Much of the 00z guidance indicates the coldest temperatures supportive of a more significant freezing rain occur further north. There is no cold air source to the north and winds are generally easterly. Winds do shift to the north late tonight as the wave of low pressure pushes east, but precipitation will be ending. No winter weather headlines have been issued, but will highlight potential for pockets of freezing rain tonight across Orange, Putnam, northern Fairfield, and northern New Haven counties. Otherwise, rain will be widespread tonight and could be moderate at times. Rain should begin tapering off from west to east early Thursday morning. The warm front will not cross the region, but will stay south and remain nearly stationary as the wave of low pressure moves offshore Thursday morning. This may set the stage for a cloudy Thursday and potential for light rain or drizzle. Forecast soundings indicate plenty of moisture below 3kft. Surface ridging behind the departing low could keep conditions dry during Thursday with persistent low clouds. Temperatures should rebound into the 40s for highs on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Longwave trough moves east Thursday night through Friday, with most of its energy staying well north of the region. A strong parent low moves from the Great Lakes into Southeast Canada, allowing a strong cold front to move across early Friday. Cold airmass builds in behind it as Canadian high pressure builds in for the weekend. Rain and patchy fog are forecast Thursday night into Friday. Winds become very gusty behind cold front Friday and remain gusty Friday night through Saturday and into Saturday evening. Winds then lower as high pressure centers more within the region. Early next week, depending on how models handle waves of low pressure along a stalled frontal boundary, an extended period of precipitation will be possible and with airmass at the time, this would be light snow. In the forecast, this light snow is just brushing the more southern parts of the CWA such as Long Island for Monday with potentially the whole CWA getting a chance for snow for next Tuesday. Both precipitation events in the forecast (late Thursday night through Friday morning and early next week) do not appear to be heavy. For next Tuesday, the wave of low pressure approaching from the west has more uncertainty so that could potentially trend higher with future forecast in terms of precipitation amounts. Above normal temperatures for highs Friday will be followed by highs a few degrees below normal for the weekend. Temperatures trend closer to normal for early to mid next week. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Canadian high pressure noses into the region this morning, then slowly retreats to the northeast into Thursday morning, as a warm front gradually approaches from the south, with waves of low pressure riding along it. VFR conditions through at least mid afternoon. MVFR conditions develop late afternoon/early evening as rain overspreads the area from W to E. Conditions then deteriorate to IFR or lower throughout by midnight. Winds generally around 10 kt or less through the TAF period. Winds veer to the NE throughout by mid morning, then veer to the E-ESE by late afternoon. Winds then back to the ENE-NE tonight. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: High confidence in VFR through 20Z. Low-moderate confidence in timing of changes in wind direction. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: High confidence in VFR through 20Z. Low-moderate confidence in timing of changes in wind direction. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: High confidence in VFR through 20Z. Low-moderate confidence in timing of changes in wind direction. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: High confidence in VFR through 20Z. Low-moderate confidence in timing of changes in wind direction. KHPN TAF Comments: High confidence in VFR through 21Z. Low- moderate confidence in timing of changes in wind direction. KISP TAF Comments: High confidence in VFR through 22Z. Low- moderate confidence in timing of changes in wind direction. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Thursday-Friday morning...IFR or lower in rain and/or drizzle. .Friday afternoon...MVFR to IFR probable in rain showers, then becoming VFR. W-NW winds G20-30KT possible. .Friday night-Saturday night...VFR. NW winds G30-35KT probable Friday night-Saturday, then NW winds G15-25KT possible Saturday night. .Sunday...VFR. && .MARINE... A southerly swell continues on the ocean waters this morning. Seas have subsided below 5 ft on the waters west of Fire Island Inlet, so have cancelled the small craft advisory. The 5 to 6 ft swell continues east of Fire Island Inlet this morning and east of Moriches Inlet into early afternoon. Winds will be well below SCA levels on all waters today. A wave of low pressure moves across the waters tonight. Winds on the ocean may approach 20 kt and could gust just under 25 kt on the waters east of Moriches Inlet on Thursday. Ocean seas could build back to near 5 ft late tonight into Thursday, especially east of Fire Island Inlet. Conditions on the waters below SCA Thursday night. Winds quickly ramp up behind the cold front Friday. SCA conditions probable for all waters. Gales possible on all waters Friday night and Saturday. SCA conditions linger into Saturday night and then drop below SCA for the remainder of the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Around a half inch of rain is forecast from this evening through early Thursday morning. Another one to three tenths of an inch of rain is forecast Thursday night into Friday morning. No hydrologic impacts are anticipated with this rainfall. No significant widespread rainfall expected through Monday && .EQUIPMENT... NYC Central Park winds are out of service until further notice. Loss of data is due to a severed cable. Parts are on order. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) will remain off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/JM NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...Maloit MARINE...DS/JM HYDROLOGY...DS/JM EQUIPMENT...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDMX 022129 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 329 PM CST Sat Feb 2 2019 .SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday/ Issued at 322 PM CST Sat Feb 2 2019 Confidence: Medium Plenty of concerns...mainly in the form of fog and later a period of light freezing precipitation Sunday night over the north. Moisture transport continues to be maintained over the region this afternoon and will continue tonight. This has resulted in snow melt, increasing dew points and temperatures and areas of fog. Though some of the south and southeast has been spared so far...and some improvement has occurred over the north; tonight will see a renewed increase in fog with more widespread dense fog overnight. Timing of start/end times remains a challenge...as the warm air advection over the south may help to mitigate some of the visby issues there after 03z. For now, will leave the end time over the southwest/west at 03z...though fully aware that this may need to be extended until 12z or later on Sunday morning. The evening crew will need to evaluate. For the remainder of the additional fog advisory which covers much of central through east/northeast areas, bridging the fog advisory issued early this morning...fog is likely to fill in around or after 00z and get worse overnight. Some modulation in visibility is likely, but overall poor enough conditions are expected that an advisory seems warranted. Tonight drizzle will become more likely as well and this will add to the fog as it falls onto the snow cover. Lows tonight will not fall much, or just remain steady as moisture streams north into Iowa. Sunday we should see highs recover and warm a bit over the region with upper 40s to lower 50s possible south...mid to upper 40s central and upper 30s to lower 40s north. By later in the morning, models are in good agreement with increased forcing and likelihood that a general heavier drizzle or very light rain will move into the region Sunday as low pressure moves from western Iowa at 06z to near KMSP by 12z. This should continue into the evening with a colder air quickly arriving on the back side of the departing low. It still looks like a brief period of light freezing precipitation and minor icing may accompany the changeover on the back side of the system between 06 and 12z Monday as shallow cold air quickly undercuts the lingering warm layer aloft and temperatures at the surface fall into the mid to upper 20s over the northwest. .LONG TERM.../Sunday night through Saturday/ Issued at 322 PM CST Sat Feb 2 2019 Monday... Weather Highlights: Wintry precip, strong winds Wintry precip: From 12z-18z Mon, Wintry precip will be departing Iowa to the east. Looking at source region for the cold air mass behind this system as described in the short-term AFD section, medium to long- range models doing awful with initializing the cold air mass on the backside. Looking at obs across southern Manitoba, models, especially the 12Z GFS a solid 5 to 10 degrees to warm & not recognizing tight temperature gradient. 12z NAM handling this the best, so leaned towards it. With the colder temperatures in mind, have amplified/accelerated rain --> snow transition, shortening the duration and areal coverage of freezing rain/ice pellets. From northwestern to central Iowa (Estherville to Des Moines), 12z Mon 850mb temperatures range from around 0 to +5C. By 18z, northwestern to central Iowa temperatures range from around -8C to 0C... and this may not be cool enough. So, needless to say, high max temperatures for Monday will likely occur during the morning hours, with falling temperatures across Iowa throughout the daytime hours. Strong winds: Confidence is high in strong winds arriving Monday morning through the afternoon hours. By 15z Mon, ~998mb sfc low to be near northeastern Wisconsin, with 1040mb sfc high over the Canadian side of the Rockies propagating towards the Upper Midwest beginning to have influence on Iowa. The nature of these winds will begin with a surge of strong gusts behind the cold front, and then prolonged sustained strong winds throughout the daytime Monday. The pressure gradient caused by this synoptic gradient is around 3mb/60 km through the daytime. Further, there is a surge of pressure rises that peak at 8mb/3-hr through Monday. There is also large-scale subsidence in the low levels to bring down the already low mixed- layer winds. Ultimately, thinking at this time there is a low-medium chance for Wind Advisory criteria to be reached late Monday morning through Monday afternoon. Will have to monitor. Impacts: Potential sustained winds from NW @ 20 to 30 mph, with gusts to 40 mph. These winds may lead to travel difficulties as vehicles may be blown sideways, especially high-profile vehicles. Additionally, with falling temperatures likely throughout the daytime, wind chill values will near 0 degrees by the afternoon hours. The need for any wind chill headlines is slim to none, but it will feel chilly Monday afternoon/evening nonetheless and 30 to 45 min frostbite considerations will be in play. Tuesday-Wednesday... Weather Highlight: Wintry precipitation An inverted trough-type feature passes through the Midwest on Tuesday, bringing the next chances for wintry precip. This trough is probably best visible on the 950mb sfc. Dissecting the mesoscale features with this system, this will likely be a tricky setup. Similar to the Sunday-Monday system, there clearly appears to be a notable surge of gulf moisture. As of now, this moisture surge touches into southern Iowa sometime Tuesday afternoon. POPs/QPF may need to be boosted as a result. Temperature profile seems to support some sort of sleet/snow blend. Certainly one of those features that could shift north or south 25 miles in the last 6-12 hours leading up to the event, notably throwing off the forecast. Meanwhile, the 12z Sat GFS especially, is trying to bring a ~west- east oriented band of precip across northwestern to northeastern Iowa Tuesday into Wednesday. Parameters to support this as ribbon of 500mb-300mb Q-Vector convergence leading what is trying to be a ribbon of low-level frontogenetical forcing, phased with 850mb moisture flux convergence. Will need to watch this area closely for enhancement. Temperature profile solidly in the 100% snow range. Decent cloud thicknesses through the DGZ worth noting as well... initially suggestive of higher snow ratio potential. Impacts: Again, certainly worth watching how this event plays out over the next few days... especially the potential northern Iowa swath of snow. Winds across Iowa through this time window look to be on the lighter-ish side... in the 5 to 10 mph range, with occasional gusts to 15 mph. This would suggest more gently falling "snow globe snow" versus wind-driven snow. Nonetheless, if more amplified snow amounts/rates occur, visibility could fall to the 1-2 mile range fairly easily. Adverse impacts would be mainly to roads, sidewalks, etc. Thursday and Beyond... Weather Highlights: Cold + Potential Winter Wx System Cold potential: For the past couple of days, models have been focusing on another blast of cold air impacting the Midwest. Run- to-run consistency of this feature is high, lending to high confidence in this cold air occurring. The timing and magnitude of this cold air, however, has had a medium-high amount of variability, acting to lower confidence of when specifically when the coldest air will be here, and how cold it will actually be. The "good news" is that 850mb temps, at worst look to be "only" near -15C to -20C. This past week's record-setting cold had 850mb temperatures in the -30C to - 40C range. Wintry precip potential: The 12z Sat ECMWF in particular is aggressive with bringing a wintry precip system through Iowa on Friday. This system can actually be traced back to the upper low currently showing up over central Alberta. The 12z GFS effectively stalls this system out over the Rockies and brings a weaker version of it through the Midwest Saturday-Sunday. Ultimately, confidence is extremely low at this time, so will not attempt to dissect the details of it now. Impacts: Though record-setting cold seems highly unlikely, will need to at least keep an eye on possible need for Wind chill headlines to be issued during mid-week shifts. Again, a lot of time for things to change... but trend certainly seems to favor colder, below normal temperatures versus warmer, above normal temperatures. Of course, will need to monitor potential for winter system, though confidence is very low at this time. && .AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon/ Issued at 1152 AM CST Sat Feb 2 2019 Lots of concerns with cigs/FG and drizzle this period. The low vsby/cigs and will likely remain a moving target and confidence somewhat with those considerations. Drizzle expected to increase aft 20z through end of period; especially north where weak upglide lift will likely aid formation of drizzle as lower layers become more saturated. /rev && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for IAZ057-058- 070-071-081>084-092>095. Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Sunday for IAZ039-047>050- 059>062-072>074. Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Sunday for IAZ006-007-016-017- 025>028-036>038. && $$ SHORT TERM...REV LONG TERM...Kotenberg AVIATION...REV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMTR 010617 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 1017 PM PST Thu Jan 31 2019 .SYNOPSIS...A powerful storm system is forecast to produce damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and localized urban and small stream flooding across the entire region from late Friday into Saturday morning. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected from Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, along with continued gusty winds. Two cold weather systems will follow for Sunday and Monday, bringing additional widespread showers and dropping snow levels as low as 2000 feet by Monday. Dry but cool weather returns Tuesday through Thursday of next week. && .DISCUSSION...As of 9:25 PM PST Thursday...Residual low level moisture left over from last night's rainfall, plus clear skies this evening, is resulting in patchy fog formation in the North and East Bay Valleys. High clouds are beginning to increase ahead of the developing storm system offshore, but these clouds probably won't have much impact on inhibiting fog formation in favored areas overnight. Forecast updates this evening have included the addition of patchy fog in the North and East Bay Valleys overnight and into early Friday. The primary forecast story continues to be the powerful storm that is beginning to develop well offshore along 135W. Given the degree of model consistency and agreement, forecast confidence is high that this storm system will produce major impacts across our region starting late tomorrow and continuing into Friday night and Saturday. Primary impact will be strong and damaging winds. The 00Z NAM is consistent with previous runs in rapidly deepening a surface cyclone offshore on Friday and Friday night, with a 980 mb low forecast to be centered about 300 miles WNW of San Francisco by 12Z Saturday. Situations like this, with a surface low rapidly deepening off our coast, typically result in some of our strongest wind events. Storm warnings are up for our coastal waters and a High Wind Watch is in effect for all of our land zones from mid afternoon Friday through Friday night. Winds will become quite strong and gusty by late Friday afternoon, but strongest winds are anticipated just ahead of the cold front on Friday night when gusts 50 to 60 mph are likely, with locally higher gusts expected in the hills and near the coast. Widespread power outages are likely on Friday night. Although the front is forecast to move through late Friday night or early on Saturday, the deep surface low is expected to remain offshore and very slowly move eastward and inland late Saturday and Saturday night. So even though strongest winds are anticipated prior to frontal passage late Friday night, winds will remain strong and gusty through Saturday and into Saturday evening and it's likely that at least Wind Advisories will persist through then. Winds are expected to finally subside by Sunday as the low moves inland and fills. Concerning rainfall with the incoming system... Recent models have trended a bit slower with the timing of both the onset of rain and with heaviest rainfall rates. It now appears rain rates won't become heavy until Friday evening in the North Bay and late Friday night into early Saturday elsewhere. Rain rates of one inch per hour are certainly possible along the frontal boundary on Friday night and into early Saturday. Rain rates of this magnitude on nearly saturated soil will result in excessive runoff which will almost certainly lead to flooding of low lying urban areas as storm drains are overwhelmed. In addition, some of the smaller streams and creeks will likely reach bankfull by late Friday night or Saturday morning, and some may exceed bankfull. Due to the somewhat slower timing of the system, the Flash Flood Watch for most of our forecast area has been extended later in time...through Saturday morning. Thus, the Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from Friday evening through Saturday morning. The mainstem rivers such as the Russian, Napa, and Salinas are expected to experience significant rises by late Saturday, but are not currently expected to flood. Widespread showers will continue behind the front through Saturday and Saturday night, and there may be sufficient instability for thunderstorms as well. Two more systems will bring additional widespread shower activity to our region from Sunday into Monday. The first system on Sunday will arrive from the northwest and lower snow levels to about 3500 feet. The second system will drop down the coast from the north and lower snow levels as low as 2000 feet on Monday. These systems, especially the second one on Monday, won't have all that much moisture to work with, but could still generate measurable snow on our higher peaks. Drier, but cool weather is forecast by next Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION...As of 10:17 PM PST Thursday...Forecast is VFR-MVFR except VLIFR-IFR in patchy fog tonight and Friday morning. Cloud layers increase late tonight through Friday while offshore E-SE winds steadily feed into the leading edge of rain ahead of rapid cyclogenesis developing over the eastern Pacific. Low level wind shear develops and spreads over the entire forecast area Friday evening into Saturday morning. This low will follow a path near and inside 40N and 130W typically followed by historically strong storms with significant impacts. Fog likely tonight, but forecast areal coverage is low confidence. Recent forecast soundings heavily lean toward near surface air reaching saturation at KSTS, KSFO, KOAK, KSJC, KMRY; statistical guidance forecasts fog for KSTS and KAPC. By late evening is when best chances for fog develops. GOES-16 LIFR Probability and Fog Depth products show VLIFR-IFR Santa Cruz county to coastal and southern Monterey county. Visibility at KLVK less than 2 miles in mist/fog on the 06z observation. Cold frontal passage is forecast early Saturday morning with heavy potentially damaging winds and rain up to frontal passage. Gusty winds persist Saturday. Vicinity of KSFO...Latest metar obs show a light wind, temp/dewpoint difference is 3 Celsius and sct-bkn MVFR cloud layer. Cloud layers gradually increase tonight and Friday along with increasing wind and eventually rain later in the day and evening. Low level wind shear is in the taf Friday evening into Saturday morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR, gradually increasing clouds late tonight and Friday, spotty light drizzle possible. Winds SE tonight increasing steadily later Friday afternoon and evening with rain arriving Friday night; added low level wind shear to the tafs. && .MARINE...as of 9:50 PM PST Thursday...A rapidly developing low pressure system will form over the offshore waters late tonight into Saturday morning. Forecast models show the low deepening to 980 millibars central pressure Saturday morning and stalling over the offshore waters approximately 300 miles west of the Bay Area Saturday before proceeding to pass over the Bay Area late Saturday into Sunday morning. This low will follow a path near and inside 40N and 130W typically followed by historically strong storms with significant impacts. Expect gale to occasional storm force winds as the low crawls eastward over the coastal waters through Saturday night into Sunday morning. This will create dangerous sea conditions for mariners. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tngt...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: Dykema AVIATION/MARINE: Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KBIS 010642 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1242 AM CST Fri Feb 1 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1242 AM CST Fri Feb 1 2019 Little change was made with this update. High clouds continue to make it difficult to observe the extent of IFR/LIFR stratus that extends at least from Mobridge to Linton, though recent GOES-16 IFR probabilities suggest the area encompasses much of far south central ND. Recent RAP/HRRR cycles continue to suggest that the area of low stratus may propagate north-northeast through 12 UTC, possibly impacting Bismarck and Jamestown. We are continuing a mention of patchy fog associated with the potential propagation of this stratus deck, as Linton earlier observed a visibility reduction to 3/4SM, though as mentioned previously turbulence in the layer immediately above the surface may ultimately favor a low stratus deck rather than prolonged fog. Otherwise, lows in western ND were increased slightly overnight where temperatures at 06 UTC are still in the upper 20s to mid 30s F thanks to the robust low-level warm air advection ongoing there. UPDATE Issued at 852 PM CST Thu Jan 31 2019 The 01Z RAP has caught on to a trend of lowering cloud heights across south central North Dakota, and now paints a large swath of dense fog developing overnight east of the Missouri River and generally between Highway 200 and the South Dakota border. Added a patchy fog mention to the forecast to account for this. While confidence in the low clouds is high because it is already being observed, other parameters (such as high clouds and stronger winds just above the surface) do not favor fog development. Will continue to monitor closely. UPDATE Issued at 549 PM CST Thu Jan 31 2019 Made some minor adjustments to overnight temperatures. Lows are expected to occur by around 9 PM CST, with slowly rising temperatures thereafter. Otherwise, blended in current observations and trends for this update. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 205 PM CST Thu Jan 31 2019 Low temperatures will be a challenging forecast tonight, particularly as the low-level air mass continues to modify on warm air advection, but the 12 UTC guidance numbers are relatively closely clustered with lows ranging from around just below zero at Jamestown to the lower 20s in western ND. A surface warm front is expected to move through all of western and central North Dakota by Friday morning, yielding favorable southwesterly boundary layer flow and a significantly-warmer air mass. While uncertainty remains in the impact of the pre-existing snowpack on surface warming, there has been strong run-to-run and model-to-model consistency in this warmup and so we are relatively confident in temperatures hitting the 30s for all of western and most of central North Dakota. Low to mid 40s are likely across the southwest. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 205 PM CST Thu Jan 31 2019 Long term forecast highlights include accumulating snow and blowing snow Sunday and Monday, and the return of dangerous wind chills next week. Guidance suggests that a shallow cool frontal zone may drop southward through northwest and central ND on Saturday, and boundary layer winds are forecast to become more east- southeasterly, which is less favorable for warming given the broad upslope nature of their trajectory. Moreover, this scenario may yield significant stratus development, especially near and to the cool side of the shallow frontal zone, wherever it winds up. As a result, forecast highs Saturday are cooler in most locales. Thereafter, the 12 UTC GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models and their ensembles continued calling for southwest flow aloft developing by Sunday as a mean 500 mb trough develops in the western U.S., and they also continue to agree that a strong shortwave trough will eject across the northern Plains Sunday into Monday. There remains a broad consensus in the potential for accumulating snow and blowing snow in this timeframe, although GEFS plumes show a large spread in potential QPF outcomes, which is not surprising given that even the deterministic 12 UTC GFS and ECMWF show two subtly different outcomes to this event, with the ECMWF now stronger but still further north than the GFS. Regardless, flow aloft is expected to be progressive, which means that this shortwave may exit quickly, but could also allow for another to be quick on its heels with another chance of snow by Tuesday. In addition, guidance continues to advertise a return of Arctic air, particularly behind the second trough passage when 850 mb temperatures may reach -30 C over western and central ND by Wednesday, likely heralding renewed wind chill hazards. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1242 AM CST Fri Feb 1 2019 MVFR to occasional IFR stratus will impact much of east central ND and the James River valley through Friday morning. A separate area of lower stratus with IFR to LIFR ceilings and patchy fog located in the KMBG to K72L region as of 06 UTC could move to the north-northeast overnight, possibly impacting KJMS, with a non-zero possibility of impacting the KBIS terminal for a time in the 07 to 11 UTC time frame, as well. Otherwise, VFR weather will prevail over western ND through the 06 UTC TAF cycle, and VFR conditions will likely encompass all but the area near the Canadian border in northwest and north central ND by Friday afternoon and evening. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CJS SHORT TERM...AJ LONG TERM...AJ AVIATION...CJS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KSEW 291038 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 238 AM PST Tue Jan 29 2019 .SYNOPSIS...An upper ridge and low level offshore flow will bring dry weather through Tuesday. An upper low will pass to the south on Wednesday for another dry day. A front will bring rain late Thursday into Friday. An upper trough will bring showery conditions for the weekend with some drying possible by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...High pressure and offshore flow will lead to dry and stable conditions across Western Washington through Wednesday. The south sound may see patchy fog this morning, otherwise sunny conditions are expected. High temps this afternoon will be mostly in the lower 50s. Expect similar conditions on Tuesday with little change in the overall pattern. Low clouds or fog will be more extensive on Wednesday due to weak winds and poor mixing. The fog depth will be shallow and should burn off during the afternoon. Expect sunny conditions up in the mountains. The upper level ridge over the Pac NW will start to flatten as we move into Thursday. Expect increasing clouds through the day as the next frontal system moves in from the west. We should see rain across the region by late Thursday afternoon or evening as this system pushes inland. 33 .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...Moist SW flow will prevail through the end of the week for a wet period of weather across Western WA. Snow levels will start high but should lower to around 4,000 feet Friday night for more snow in the mountains. We may see a brief break on Saturday, then more showers Saturday night and Sunday as an upper level trough nudges in. This system will be cooler for lower snow levels (around 1,500 feet) and temperatures trending a few degrees below normal. Cool and showery weather may linger into Monday before this system exits. However, the timing of this system's exit is off in the models. The models try to build a ridge by midweek for another break in the weather. 33 && .AVIATION...High pressure remains in control with northeasterly flow aloft and at the surface. Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period with scattered high clouds. The exception would be for some patchy fog across the southwest interior, mainly at KOLM, this morning. KSEA...VFR conditions with scattered high clouds. N/NE winds 4 to 9 kts. CEO && .MARINE...A 1034 mb ridge extends from central British Columbia into Montana and Wyoming. This ridge, combined with a thermal trough of low pressure along the northern California and southern Oregon coast will result in moderate offshore flow through Tuesday. Small craft advisories are in effect for east to northeast winds at the west entrance to the Strait of Juan de Fuca and for the adjacent near-shore coastal waters. Winds will become lighter on Wednesday then become southerly on Thursday as the ridge to the northeast of the area weakens and shifts southeastward. A front will approach the waters from the west Thursday night and Friday. Albrecht && .HYDROLOGY...River flooding is not expected for the next 7 days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$ www.weather.gov/seattle  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KILX 070537 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1137 PM CST Sun Jan 6 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 902 PM CST Sun Jan 6 2019 The 00z model runs show some delay in the onset of rain across central Illinois this evening, and the 00z KILX sounding supports that as well. A dry sub-cloud layer will take a few hours to saturate, especially east of the IL river. Areas west of the IL river should see some light rain develop before midnight, as a stronger push of forcing rides along the warm front toward central IL. Have slowed down the eastward advancement of rain tonight, with areas east of I-57 probably remaining dry until toward sunrise. Despite the PoPs being up in the categorical range (80%+), QPF amounts look to remain on the light side, with most areas seeing around 0.25" of rain or less. Limited instability will reduce updraft strength, and no thunderstorms are expected. However, strong wind shear will set the stage for wind gusts of 30-35 mph at times overnight and Monday during any rain showers. The strong winds are already covered well in the forecast. A cold frontal passage tomorrow will bring the onset of colder and drier air to the area. Rain looks to diminish quickly Monday afternoon from west to east, with clearing skies Monday night. Low temps tonight will remain quite mild, as a warm front shifts northward through the area. Lows will remain in the 40s across the board tonight. Updates mainly concentrated on precip timing and coverage, with other areas of the forecast generally on track. Updated forecast info is already available. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) ISSUED AT 330 PM CST Sun Jan 6 2019 Mid afternoon surface map shows deepening 999 mb low pressure over southeast CO with a warm front extending eastward thru nw KS to northern MO and arching back into sw IL, south and sw of CWA. Mid and high clouds of 15-25k ft have increased/thickened during today across central and southeast IL, with mostly cloudy to overcast skies at mid afternoon. Temps range over far northern CWA at Galesburg and Lacon, to 55F in Lawrenceville and Mount Carmel airport in Lawrence county. Easterly winds of 8-18 mph and few gusts of 20-25 mph over northern CWA making it feel a bit cooler. The 12Z models take upper level trof over the Rockies into the central plains as it flattens out on Monday. This will eject surface low pressure from southeast CO ne into northern WI by midday Monday and swing a cold front eastward across IL during Monday afternoon. Models have trended slower with bringing rain chances eastward into IL during tonight, and 12z ILX sounding shows large dry area off the surface, so this slower trends seems good. Confined chances of light rain showers to the IL river valley during mid/late evening, then spreading east toward I-57 during overnight, and into far eastern IL and the Wabash river valley during Monday morning. Rain chances then diminish/end behind the cold front from west to east during Mon afternoon. Breezy east winds turn se during tonight and keep temps nearly steady or even slowly rising with mild lows in the 40s. Strong SSW winds 15-25 mph and gusts of 25-35 mph brings milder highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s on Monday, mildest from Springfield sw. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) ISSUED AT 330 PM CST Sun Jan 6 2019 Some cooler/drier air ushers into central/southeast IL during Monday night as clouds decrease, though temps still well above normal. Lows Mon night range from upper 30s nw half of CWA to near 45F by Lawrenceville. Increasing WNW winds on Tue with gusts of 25-35 mph so another windy day, with mostly sunny skies with scattered stratocumulus clouds especially from I-74 ne. Highs Tue range from mid 40s northern CWA to lower 50s in southeast IL, though temps slipping into the low to mid 40s by dusk due to cold air advection. Strong/large Canadian high pressure moves out of the Canadian & US Rockies and into the MS river valley by Thu morning. Aloft IL gets established in a nw upper level flow with deep upper level trof over the northeast states and upper level ridge over the front range of the Rockies. Dry and seasonably cold conditions generally expected over central IL Wed thru Friday. Lows Wed night of 20-25F in central IL and upper 20s in southeast IL. Below normal temps are expected Wed/Thu over area for a change. Highs Wed/Thu in the upper 20s/lower 30s despite a fair amount of sunshine. Lows in the mid to upper teens Wed night with far southeast IL near 20F. Lows in the lower 20s Thu night. Temps moderate closer to normal on Friday with highs in the mid to upper 30s. A northern stream short wave diving se into the western Great Lakes Friday/Saturday could bring chances of light snow showers to the area mainly Fri night into Sat morning especially ne half of CWA. Highs next weekend in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with mildest readings sw CWA and southeast IL. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1137 PM CST Sun Jan 6 2019 A warm front lifting through Illinois will continue increase mid- level moisture and cloud thickness. A dry sub-cloud layer is slowly saturating from virga, mainly west of I-55. Rain chances will increase after midnight for our western TAFs of PIA and SPI, and as far east as BMI later tonight. DEC and CMI will likely see a delay of steady rains until after sunrise tomorrow. High resolution guidance is pointing toward a band of steady rains affecting all TAF sites for around 4 to 6 hours tomorrow morning into early afternoon, before a cold front ushers dry air into Illinois from the west Monday afternoon. Scattered showers look to redevelop behind the main band of rain, mainly affecting our northern TAF sites along I-74. All rain should come to an end for PIA by 20z and at CMI by 23z-00z. During the rain, low MVFR or IFR clouds are expected, with visibility remaining MVFR for the most part during rain. Winds will be a concern throughout this TAF period, with gusty southeast winds to start the 06z TAFs. Gusts will increase shortly after midnight to 25KT at times. Winds are expected to become southerly by 12-13z, with gusts around 30KT Monday morning. A cold frontal passage Monday afternoon will cause winds to shift to the southwest, then the west Monday evening. Southwest gusts Monday afternoon could reach into the 25-30kt range, as cloud ceilings climb from IFR to MVFR. VFR cloud conditions are expected to develop from west to east later Monday afternoon into Mon evening. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Shimon SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Shimon  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KILX 062358 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 558 PM CST Sun Jan 6 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) ISSUED AT 330 PM CST Sun Jan 6 2019 Mid afternoon surface map shows deepening 999 mb low pressure over southeast CO with a warm front extending eastward thru nw KS to northern MO and arching back into sw IL, south and sw of CWA. Mid and high clouds of 15-25k ft have increased/thickened during today across central and southeast IL, with mostly cloudy to overcast skies at mid afternoon. Temps range over far northern CWA at Galesburg and Lacon, to 55F in Lawrenceville and Mount Carmel airport in Lawrence county. Easterly winds of 8-18 mph and few gusts of 20-25 mph over northern CWA making it feel a bit cooler. The 12Z models take upper level trof over the Rockies into the central plains as it flattens out on Monday. This will eject surface low pressure from southeast CO ne into northern WI by midday Monday and swing a cold front eastward across IL during Monday afternoon. Models have trended slower with bringing rain chances eastward into IL during tonight, and 12z ILX sounding shows large dry area off the surface, so this slower trends seems good. Confined chances of light rain showers to the IL river valley during mid/late evening, then spreading east toward I-57 during overnight, and into far eastern IL and the Wabash river valley during Monday morning. Rain chances then diminish/end behind the cold front from west to east during Mon afternoon. Breezy east winds turn se during tonight and keep temps nearly steady or even slowly rising with mild lows in the 40s. Strong SSW winds 15-25 mph and gusts of 25-35 mph brings milder highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s on Monday, mildest from Springfield sw. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) ISSUED AT 330 PM CST Sun Jan 6 2019 Some cooler/drier air ushers into central/southeast IL during Monday night as clouds decrease, though temps still well above normal. Lows Mon night range from upper 30s nw half of CWA to near 45F by Lawrenceville. Increasing WNW winds on Tue with gusts of 25-35 mph so another windy day, with mostly sunny skies with scattered stratocumulus clouds especially from I-74 ne. Highs Tue range from mid 40s northern CWA to lower 50s in southeast IL, though temps slipping into the low to mid 40s by dusk due to cold air advection. Strong/large Canadian high pressure moves out of the Canadian & US Rockies and into the MS river valley by Thu morning. Aloft IL gets established in a nw upper level flow with deep upper level trof over the northeast states and upper level ridge over the front range of the Rockies. Dry and seasonably cold conditions generally expected over central IL Wed thru Friday. Lows Wed night of 20-25F in central IL and upper 20s in southeast IL. Below normal temps are expected Wed/Thu over area for a change. Highs Wed/Thu in the upper 20s/lower 30s despite a fair amount of sunshine. Lows in the mid to upper teens Wed night with far southeast IL near 20F. Lows in the lower 20s Thu night. Temps moderate closer to normal on Friday with highs in the mid to upper 30s. A northern stream short wave diving se into the western Great Lakes Friday/Saturday could bring chances of light snow showers to the area mainly Fri night into Sat morning especially ne half of CWA. Highs next weekend in the upper 30s to lower 40s, with mildest readings sw CWA and southeast IL. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 558 PM CST Sun Jan 6 2019 A warm front lifting through Illinois will increase mid-level moisture and cloud thickness. A dry sub-cloud layer will prevent much in the way of rain from reaching the ground until after midnight. Sprinkles may occur, but no significance to aviation concerns. Better chances of steady rains is still expected later tonight, especially west of I-55. Steady rains look to affect all TAF sites for 4 to 6 hours tomorrow, before dry air quickly pushes into Illinois from the west Monday afternoon, after a cold frontal passage. Winds will be a concern throughout this TAF period, with gusty southeast winds to start the 00z TAFs. Gusts will increase this evening to 25KT at times. Winds are expected to become southerly by 12z, with gusts around 30KT Monday morning. A cold frontal passage later morning and early afternoon will cause winds to shift to the southwest, then increase again. Southwest gusts by late afternoon could reach back into the 25-30kt range, as cloud ceilings climb from IFR to MVFR, and possibly even VFR for SPI and PIA. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Shimon  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KBTV 012328 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Burlington VT 628 PM EST Tue Jan 1 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will gradually build into the North Country tonight and this will help to bring any light snow showers to an end and decrease clouds overnight. Expect sunshine on Wednesday with high pressure right over the area...but below normal temperatures are expected. Clouds will be on the increase Wednesday night into Thursday as an upper level disturbance moves into the region. This feature will also spread some light snow into the North Country. At this time one to two inches of snow is expected for most areas late Wednesday night through the first half of Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 616 PM EST Tuesday...Clouds have struggled to dissipate early this evening but looking at current satellite trends on both IR and RGB channels shows these clouds thinning. Also, high resolution guidance shows the cloud thickness diminishing as drier air is currently displacing much of the lingering moisture. The dwindling cloud cover should yield a pretty nice radiative cooling night, especially after midnight once the majority of the clouds dissipate and/or exit the region. Thus, lowered temperatures a few degrees to get more in line with the hi-res guidance. This dropped temperatures 2 to 4 degrees, with the most noticeable changes across Saint Lawrence County with just a few high clouds moving overhead. Previous Discussion...Wind advisory for south central Vermont has been cancelled. Cloud cover and stronger flow aloft exiting the area are limiting the ability to mix stronger winds to the surface. Winds will still be gusty over most of the area through this evening before winds start to taper off as high pressure builds into the region. As is typically the case clouds have been slow to clear today with cold air advection taking place throughout the day. Have held onto clouds longer for the first half of the night before eventually clearing out as subsidence increasing from building high pressure. Based on surface observations still cannot rule out some light snow showers over the mountains through this evening...but as clouds erode and vertical depth of moisture decreases further...the precipitation should come to an end. Should see temperatures falling more sharply after midnight with lows generally in the single digits above and below zero. However...there will be some lower teens in the Champlain Valley and southern areas of Vermont. Should be a quiet day on Wednesday with high pressure over the area...light winds...a good deal of sunshine...and highs in the mid teens to mid 20s. Trends in the data suggest shortwave trough moving into the area late Wednesday night will provide sufficient dynamic support for light snow to spread from west to east across the area...especially after midnight. Should generally see an inch or less...but have raised the precipitation chances into the likely category. Increasing cloud cover should result in lows not as cold as tonight with values generally in the teens...but some single digits in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 309 PM EST Tuesday...Upper shortwave trough will traverse the North Country Thursday morning with a weak surface trough as well. Overall, dynamics and moisture associated with the system look better than yesterday. Warm, moist advection will lead to modest upglide at the 280K isentrope. Positive vorticity advection associated with the trough will also provide forcing for ascent. Given the warm air advection, snow to liquid ratios will likely be somewhere between 15:1 and 20:1. This system will quickly shift east during the day, which will shunt moist air off to the south and east again with drying conditions for the afternoon. All told, snow totals should be near 1- 3". Highs will be near the freezing mark, and lows will be in the upper teens to mid 20s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 309 PM EST Tuesday...Northern stream will continue to send weak perturbations across the North Country under weak large scale troughing. None appear to be very impactful. An upper trough passes through Friday, but heights will be rising during the day and better moisture remains off to our north. Southern stream slough continues with modest upper low meandering across the southeast. Models continue to delay its arrival as it moves east, with this particular trough still not phasing with any northern stream system. On Saturday, this feature will begin to accelerate eastward as upper flow speeds up. There still remains some spread as to where surface low pressure tracks and how this impacts downstream development of a coastal low. 09Z run of the SREF shows bi-modal distribution for the different cores used in the ensemble forecast system. One would take this west of the Appalachians, and the other places it near the Appalachians. This difference can also be seen with the GEFS and GEPS. It still remains possible for the coastal low to develop just shy of the benchmark, which would still be enough to place snow along southern and eastern VT. Have highlighted greatest probabilities there, with less across the Champlain Valley and Northern New York. Scattered snow showers on Sunday, and Monday looks mostly dry. The next system approaches next Tuesday. Temperatures are expected to be above normal through the long term. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Through 18Z Wednesday...A few lingering snow showers across KSLK and and KMPV will be seen through around 02Z before finally clearing out. Any lingering MVFR ceilings will raise to VFR by 04Z with VFR ceilings prevailing from midnight onwards. Gusty northwest winds will continue through around 04Z as the surface gradient remains intact. After that, northwest winds less than 10 knots will prevail through the day Wednesday. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Likely SN. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...Clay/Evenson SHORT TERM...Haynes LONG TERM...Haynes AVIATION...Clay  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KMLB 281408 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 908 AM EST Fri Dec 28 2018 .DISCUSSION... ...Warmer With Hazardous Boating and Beach Conditions Again Today... Current-Tonight...915 MHZ Cape wind profilers show deep southerly flow over the area with speeds averaging 25-35kts. After a lull in winds early this morning, they should ramp back up to near breezy with frequent higher gusts by this afternoon, but will slacken aft sunset as the center of the ridge to the north retreats seaward. High pressure continues to push seaward into the western Atlc away from the eastern seaboard as a frontal system advances towards the east U.S. coast and Deep South. Broad, mid-level, high pressure continues to reside across the Bahamas and Greater Antilles, though some weak impulses will traverse the northern peninsula later in the day. Deep layer moisture continues to pool across the area ahead of a frontal boundary that will lie quasi-stationary by early evening over the FL Panhandle/north FL. There will be a chance for showers with highest threat along/north of I-4 in the afternoon, though there will be at least a chc/slgt chc for such activity areawide. Lapse rates remain weak and continue to keep thunder mention absent from the grids/zones. A small evening shower threat will exist across the central and north, before lifting north of the CWA by midnight. Another warm/humid day with temperatures in the U70s to L80s. A few M80s may be possible, south of I-4, should cloud thickness be less here. Overnight lows remain mild and mainly in the M/U60s...near 70F along the immediate Treasure Coast. && .AVIATION...Spotty MVFR CIGs improving through late morning and early afternoon, lifting to VFR BKN035-040 during the day. Mainly isolated MVFR showers near 4SM BKN025 during the afternoon. SE/S winds decreasing this evening, becoming mostly light. Deep moisture also will be present at the surface and boundary layer winds are forecast to drop to 10-15 kts late which is well below than we have seen the previous two nights. Model guidance suggests some late overnight/early Sat morning restrictions to both CIGs/VSBYs; especially over the interior. Question is whether cloud cover will allow for patchy (possibly dense) fog to develop toward daybreak or will we see more in the way of areas of low stratus clouds. Will take a closer look at this with the 18Z TAF issuance. && .MARINE...Today-Tonight...Continued hazardous marine conditions across all marine legs this morning, but the pressure gradient begins to relax through the day with wind speeds diminishing to around 15 kts by late afternoon and 10-15 kts tonight. Seas, however, will be slower to subside. SERLY winds will veer more SSE/S over the next 24 hours. Still forecast 5-7 ft seas near shore and 6-9 ft offshore by early evening, so will see if we either need to extend current near shore advisories past 21Z/4PM for a little longer or employ SCA for seas. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect this morning (as tides increase) through 7 PM as breaking waves of 5 to 6 feet make for rough, choppy conditions in the surf zone. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm. && $$ Sedlock/Smith/Combs  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KLWX 280238 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 938 PM EST Thu Dec 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will shift further offshore overnight as low pressure moves into the Great Lakes and a warm front approaches the region. The low pressure system will pass by to the northwest on Friday with a cold front crossing the region Friday night. High pressure will briefly return Saturday. A weak system may impact the region Sunday, followed by a stronger system early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Not much to update this evening. Light rain starting to break out across the region, but the steadier heavier rain will wait until late tonight. Still expect general 1-2 inches with higher amounts locally, and flood watch as inherited still looks good. Not convinced the winds will be widespread enough on the ridges to warrant a wind advisory overnight, so holding off for now. Previous AFD... A low pressure system moving through the upper Midwest this afternoon will track northeastward and into the Great Lakes region tonight. This in combination with surface high pressure moving offshore of New England will lead to strengthening south to southwesterly flow and increasing warm air advection across the Mid- Atlantic. The most significant surge of moisture and warm air advection will occur overnight and into the early morning hours of Friday as the surface low tracks into the Great Lakes and strong low level jet moves overhead. Widespread rain will overspread the area during the overnight. In addition, as the strong low level jet moves overhead, gusty winds up to 40-50 mph become possible across the highest elevations/ridgelines of the Allegheny Front and Blue Ridge. Will need to monitor for the possibility of a Wind Advisory for a brief window of time. Temperatures likely only to drop into the upper 30s to low 40s prior to midnight before rising gradually towards morning. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Rain will continue through much of Friday. The heaviest rain will become focused along an initial area of low to mid level frontogenesis and upper level shortwave energy with mean flow parallel to this forcing. There's still some uncertainty as to where this sets up but should see an eastward progression during the day Friday with rain tapering from west to east during the second half of the day. Rain may be heavy at times, with precipitable water values up to around 1.5", especially in any more focused bands or areas of convection as noted above. Consensus of model/ensemble/WPC guidance offers widespread amounts from 1-2" (less than one inch in far northwestern areas), with the highest totals favored from the central/southern Shenandoah Valley into central VA. Some individual model guidance indicates that localized higher end amounts of up to 2.5" are possible in that location. With 6-hour flash flood guidance on the order of 1-2", localized flooding of small streams and low lying urban areas are possible Friday, with potential for mainstem river flooding into the weekend. The current iteration of the Flood Watch highlights the area where the highest probabilities exist of rain amounts exceeding flood guidance. Highs Friday should reach the upper 50s to low 60s. Drying is expected Friday night as cold front passes and dry advection ensues, although some upslope rain/snow showers remain possible. Lows 40-50F. A dry secondary front will then move across the region on Saturday followed by high pressure moving overhead Saturday night. Dry weather is expected with highs Saturday in the 40s/50s and lows Saturday night in the 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Weak high pressure slides by to the north on Sunday, as a very weak area of low pressure slides south of the region. Latest guidance continues to suggest dry conditions throughout the day on Sunday, with temperatures around average. The operational Euro, GFS and Canadian all show completely dry conditions, and the ensembles continue to show low probability of any precipitation, so have lowered POPs even more, leaving only slight to low chance POPs in southern portions of the CWA. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 40s, with overnight lows into the mid 30s. POPs increase Sunday night, as another area of low pressure forms in the low Mississippi River valley. This system will track to our west, with precipitation associated with the warm front potentially reaching the area Sunday night into Monday morning. The rest of Monday will almost certainly be wet, as the warm front continues north. This will continue into Monday evening (New Year's Eve), along with a push of warmer temperatures. Temperatures will reach the upper 40s for highs on Monday, maybe even close to 50. Lows will not get too much lower than that, as the surge of warm air comes in behind the warm front. The start of 2019 will be a little tricky in terms of the forecast. The cold front will be moving through at some point during the day on Tuesday. The potential is there for this to happen later in the day, which would keep us much above normal in terms of temperatures. This could even bring about the possibility of a thunderstorm as the front passes. However, timing is very uncertain at this point. The same goes for Wednesday, as we could see residual precipitation from the cold front, or it could remain dry if the front has already gone through the region. For now, keeping precip chances through Wednesday. Most of the precip in the long term should be in the form of rain, but with some light changeover possible at the end Tuesday night and/or beyond. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Deteriorating conditions tonight with IFR probable late as a low pressure system brings rain and low clouds back to the region. Increasing winds at 1-2 thousand feet will also lead to low level wind shear during the overnight and early morning hours. MVFR/IFR conditions will continue in low clouds and rain on Friday. A cold front will sweep eastward Friday evening, bringing an end to the rain and restrictions. Building high pressure will bring VFR conditions Saturday and Saturday night, although northwest winds could gust higher than 20 knots on Saturday. Dry weather will persist into Sunday, with high pressure to our north, and low pressure far enough south to keep rain chances very minimal for our area. So, VFR conditions are likely throughout the day. However, rain moves in late Sunday night and into Monday, with sub-VFR conditions likely on Monday. && .MARINE... Southerly flow picking up ahead of the next system, with SCA gusts developing overnight. Southerly flow continues on Friday with SCA conditions likely over the open waters of the Chesapeake Bay and lower tidal Potomac. A cold front will cross the area Friday night, shifting winds to the northwest. SCA winds will continue to be possible. A secondary dry front will cross the area Saturday, leading to gusty northwest winds. A Small Craft Advisory will be possible. A weak gradient between high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south will likely keep winds below criteria for Saturday night. High pressure will shift offshore on Sunday with return flow beginning on Monday. At this time, winds should remain below SCA criteria until perhaps behind a cold front around the middle of next week. Rain is forecast Monday, and a thunderstorm can't be ruled out on New Year's Day. && .HYDROLOGY... Model guidance is gradually trending towards a consensus solution of 1-2" of total rainfall, with localized maxima of up to 2-3" possible across portions of central Virginia. Individual model runs are still exhibiting slightly differing scenarios with GFS being the wettest and ECMWF being most southeast with their respective axes of precipitation. With 6-hour flash flood guidance on the order of 1-2", localized flooding of small streams and low lying urban areas are possible Friday, with potential for mainstem river flooding into the weekend. The current iteration of the Flood Watch highlights the area where the highest probabilities exist of rain amounts exceeding this flood guidance. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal departures will gradually rise through the remainder of tonight as easterly winds pile up and then rise further on Friday as winds turn southerly along the entire length of the Bay and become stronger. Our only potential saving grace for coastal flooding is that we will be in a very unfavorable lunar phase and thus need to be nearly two feet above normal high tide even at the higher of the two high tides. But minor flooding is still possible at Annapolis, DC, and Straits Point on Friday evening. Our new TWL forecast is very close to the latter hours of the latest CBOFS guidance, which would be favored in this type of wind pattern. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...Flood Watch from 5 AM EST Friday through late Friday night for DCZ001. MD...Flood Watch from 5 AM EST Friday through late Friday night for MDZ011-013-014-504-506-508. VA...Flood Watch from 1 AM EST Friday through late Friday night for VAZ025-026-029-036>039-503-504-507-508. Flood Watch from 5 AM EST Friday through late Friday night for VAZ040-050>056-501-502-506. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ531- 532-539-540-542. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ533-537-541. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Friday night for ANZ543. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST Friday night for ANZ534. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MM/RCM NEAR TERM...MM/RCM SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...CJL AVIATION...MM/CJL/RCM MARINE...MM/CJL/RCM HYDROLOGY...MM/JE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MM/JE/RCM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KMLB 271955 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 255 PM EST Thu Dec 27 2018 .DISCUSSION... ...Hazardous Boating and Beach Conditions Tonight... ...Warmer Than Normal Temperatures Expected Through This Weekend and Well Into Next Week... Current-Tonight... The 915 MHZ Cape wind profilers continue to show deep and strong onshore (ESE/SE) flow (20-35kts) off the deck. Surface high pressure is off of the mid Atlc coast will continue to slowly pull seaward overnight ahead of an approaching low pressure system. The pressure gradient at the surface continues to remain tight as winds veer a bit more to the SE through the period. A breezy afternoon with surface wind speeds 15-20 mph and higher gusts occurring, especially near the coast (30-35mph gusts at Treasure Coast). Winds will remain elevated across the interior this evening 10-15 mph and will back off only slowly overnight. Winds will also remain amplified/breezy along the Space/Treasure coasts all night (15-20 mph) with higher gusts expected as the pressure gradient remains tight here. The mid-level high pressure over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles continues to strengthen/amplify and will provide for a SWRLY flow aloft across the FL peninsula. Moisture continues to deepen and we will see increasing cloudiness areawide tonight. We may see an uptick in low-topped onshore moving showers late in the day/evening. Generally a less than 20pct chance over much of the interior and 20- 30pct near the coast with highest threat along the St. Lucie/Martin coasts. Mild temperatures again tonight for lows and mainly in the 60s areawide with some L70s possible along the immediate Space/Treasure coasts and barrier islands due to combination of deepening moisture/cloud cover/elevated winds. Fri/Fri Night... The aforementioned high pressure continues to push seaward into the western Atlc as a frontal system advances towards the east U.S. coast and Deep South. Broad, mid-level, high pressure continues to reside across the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. The pressure gradient remains rather tight thru the day with breezy SE/S winds again areawide, but will slacken aft sunset as the center of the ridge retreats seaward. Deep layer moisture continues to pool across the area ahead of a frontal boundary that will lie quasi-stationary by early evening over the FL Panhandle/north FL. There will be a chance for showers with highest threat along/north of I-4 in the afternoon, though there will be at least a chc/slgt chc for such activity areawide. Lapse rates remain weak and continue to keep thunder mention absent from the grids/zones. Another warm/humid day with temperatures in the U70s to L80s. A few M80s may be possible, south of I-4, should cloud thickness be less here. Overnight lows remain mild and mainly in the M/U60s...near 70F along the immediate Treasure Coast. Sat-Sun... A well developed storm system currently centered over the Upr Midwest will overrun the nrn flank of an H100-H70 anticyclone extending from the Mid Atlc coast to Hudson Bay. This motion will flatten the ridge while shunting it to the south, where its axis will eventually anchor itself over the central/south FL Peninsula. This position will place central FL under the direct influence of the western flank of the ridge with a light but steady southerly flow prevailing thru the H100-H70 lyr, veering to W/SW thru the H70- H30 lyr. Upstream and aloft, a large, broad, and deep lyr trof dominates the WX pattern west of the MS River with a deepening storm center moving into the Upr Midwest. The H30-H20 lvl of this trof will become highly amplified with a strong positive tilt by daybreak Sat as a 100KT jet streak over the Cascade Mtn range digs its way into the Desert SW. The jet stream on the leading edge of the trof will respond by taking on a lifting orientation from the Rio Grand Valley to the Mid Atlc/New England states that will prevail into early next week. The combination of the Atlc ridge and the lifting jet will effectively prevent any cold air/frontal intrusions block out any frontal intrusions into central Florida. Temps well abv avg for early winter...aftn maxes in the L/M80s (+10-15F), mrng mins in the M/U60s (+15-20F). Minimal PoPs thru the weekend...mainly Sat...as the S/SW flow pushes a slug of deep lyr moisture acrs central FL. PWat values increasing into the 1.50"-1.75" range, but in a "top-down" manner that will trap much of the moisture abv the H50 lyr. GFS model shows the H85- H50 lyr struggling to reach 70pct mean RH, with a sig portion of the H85-H70 lyr maintaining dewpoint depressions btwn 5-10C. Weak isentropic lift will prevail Sat thru the low/mid lyrs, but with no frontal bndry overhead, sfc/low lcl triggers will be limited to sea/lake breeze interactions...hard to achieve in a deep and weakening srly flow. By daybreak Sun, much of the moisture will have lifted NE of central FL with little to no dynamic support. The lcl 6KM WRF model remains unimpressed with QPF thru the weekend...largely BLO 0.10". Will continue to undercut GFS MOS PoPs off the 27/12Z...capping them at 20pct Sat, and a "silent" 10pct Sun. Mon-Thu...(prev disc) An amplifying but progressive mid level trough over the central CONUS will push eastward from mid to late week, dislodging the stubborn Bahamas ridge, which will erode and retreat into the Atlantic. A wavy cold front will gradually sag through the SE CONUS and eventually into Florida. Timing differences still remain, however, with the op-GFS showing a FROPA Wednesday evening and overnight, while the ECM brings it through Thursday afternoon and early evening. The overall trend seems just a bit slower, thus the forecast follows the slower ECM fairly closely for now. This portends warmer temps and fairly low rain chances, with a slight chance (at best) for showers on Wednesday and again on Thursday. Temps as follows: L80s/L-M60s for Tuesday, U70s-L80s/U50s-L60s on Wednesday, and 70s/50s to L60s on Thursday. && .AVIATION... Breezy ESE/SE winds areawide this afternoon in upwards of 15-20 kts across much of ECFL with frequent higher gusts expected, gusts greater than 25 kts along the Treasure Coast. Winds remain elevated into this evening interior, 10-15 kts, before backing down slowly overnight and amplified at the Space/Treasure coasts (15-20kts) and gusty. An increase in moisture will spell Considerable Cloudiness to MCloudy skies thru the period. ISOLD -shra/shra possible with brief MVFR conds; mainly southward and along the coast, greatest threat later in the day/evening. While cont'd mainly VFR with CIGs 035- 045AGL forecast by Model Guidance for this evening and overnight, we may see some pockets of MVFR CIGs around late and into Fri morning, as well. Expect more LLWS concerns after sunset over the interior terminals and north of KTIX along the coast as 925 mb winds increase (WS020/140-160/35-40 knots). Coastal terminals southward should remain well mixed with windy/gusty conditions overnight. && .MARINE... Afternoon/Tonight...Small Craft Advisories will be in effect for all of the coastal waters by late afternoon Coastal Waters Forecast issuance for very hazardous small craft boating conditions. Winds are forecast to ramp up by early evening to 20kts/gusty near shore and 25kts/occasional gusts to Gale Force Gulf Stream. Seas will build this evening/overnight to 6-9 ft near shore and offshore 8-10 ft. Fri-Fri Night...Hazardous marine conditions greet the period with gusty SE/SSE winds that will gradually decrease through the day as the pgrad relaxes. Seas of course will be slower to subside. Present SCA goes into mid-evening offshore and through late afternoon near shore. Winds will drop into the 10-15KT range Fri evening areawide. Seas mainly 7-10FT across much of the MAOR to start the day, will subside to 5-6FT near shore and 7-8FT offshore by evening, and 4-6FT late Friday night. Sat-Tue...Boating conditions generally favorable as a high pres ridge anchors itself over the central/south FL Peninsula. The western flank of the ridge will be slowly eroded by a storm system that will pull a weak cold front into the Deep South early next week. Winds a light to gentle S/SE breeze thru the weekend, veering to a gentle to moderate S/SW breeze Mon/Tue as the frontal trof advances into the FL Panhandle and tightens the lcl pgrad. Seas subsiding to 2-4FT nearshore and 3-5FT offshore by late Sat aftn...then 2-3FT nearshore and 3-4Ft offshore by late Sun aftn. Seas briefly rebuilding on Mon to 3-4FT nearshore and 4-5FT offshore wind winds begin to pick up, but dropping back about a foot areawide by daybreak Tue as winds take on a slight offshore component. Boaters should note that a long pd easterly swell will be a major contributor to the combined wave heights this weekend. Isold/sct shras thru Sun. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 68 80 66 77 / 20 40 30 20 MCO 68 81 66 81 / 20 30 30 20 MLB 72 84 68 78 / 30 30 20 20 VRB 73 83 69 79 / 30 30 20 20 LEE 67 82 65 81 / 10 40 30 20 SFB 68 82 66 81 / 20 40 30 20 ORL 67 82 66 81 / 20 40 30 20 FPR 72 82 70 79 / 30 30 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST Friday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Friday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm. && $$ Short Term/Aviation...Sedlock Long Term/Impact WX...Bragaw  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KLWX 271958 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 258 PM EST Thu Dec 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will shift further offshore tonight as low pressure moves into the Great Lakes and a warm front approaches the region. The low pressure system will pass by to the northwest on Friday with a cold front crossing the region Friday night. High pressure will briefly return Saturday. A weak system may impact the region Sunday, followed by a stronger system early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A low pressure system moving through the upper Midwest this afternoon will track northeastward and into the Great Lakes region tonight. This in combination with surface high pressure moving offshore of New England will lead to strengthening south to southwesterly flow and increasing warm air advection across the Mid- Atlantic. Thus clouds will continue to increase for the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Some light rain may approach southern/western areas near the Allegheny Front and central Shenandoah Valley towards dusk. Highs will reach in the upper 40s to around 50F. The most significant surge of moisture and warm air advection will occur overnight and into the early morning hours of Friday as the surface low tracks into the Great Lakes and strong low level jet moves overhead. Widespread rain will overspread the area during the overnight. In addition, as the strong low level jet moves overhead, gusty winds up to 40-50 mph become possible across the highest elevations/ridgelines of the Allegheny Front and Blue Ridge. Will need to monitor for the possibility of a Wind Advisory for a brief window of time. Temperatures likely only to drop into the upper 30s to low 40s prior to midnight before rising gradually towards morning. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Rain will continue through much of Friday. The heaviest rain will become focused along an initial area of low to mid level frontogenesis and upper level shortwave energy with mean flow parallel to this forcing. There's still some uncertainty as to where this sets up but should see an eastward progression during the day Friday with rain tapering from west to east during the second half of the day. Rain may be heavy at times, with precipitable water values up to around 1.5", especially in any more focused bands or areas of convection as noted above. Consensus of model/ensemble/WPC guidance offers widespread amounts from 1-2" (less than one inch in far northwestern areas), with the highest totals favored from the central/southern Shenandoah Valley into central VA. Some individual model guidance indicates that localized higher end amounts of up to 2.5" are possible in that location. With 6-hour flash flood guidance on the order of 1-2", localized flooding of small streams and low lying urban areas are possible Friday, with potential for mainstem river flooding into the weekend. The current iteration of the Flood Watch highlights the area where the highest probabilities exist of rain amounts exceeding flood guidance. Highs Friday should reach the upper 50s to low 60s. Drying is expected Friday night as cold front passes and dry advection ensues, although some upslope rain/snow showers remain possible. Lows 40-50F. A dry secondary front will then move across the region on Saturday followed by high pressure moving overhead Saturday night. Dry weather is expected with highs Saturday in the 40s/50s and lows Saturday night in the 30s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Weak high pressure slides by to the north on Sunday, as a very weak area of low pressure slides south of the region. Latest guidance continues to suggest dry conditions throughout the day on Sunday, with temperatures around average. The operational Euro, GFS and Canadian all show completely dry conditions, and the ensembles continue to show low probability of any precipitation, so have lowered POPs even more, leaving only slight to low chance POPs in southern portions of the CWA. High temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 40s, with overnight lows into the mid 30s. POPs increase Sunday night, as another area of low pressure forms in the low Mississippi River valley. This system will track to our west, with precipitation associated with the warm front potentially reaching the area Sunday night into Monday morning. The rest of Monday will almost certainly be wet, as the warm front continues north. This will continue into Monday evening (New Year's Eve), along with a push of warmer temperatures. Temperatures will reach the upper 40s for highs on Monday, maybe even close to 50. Lows will not get too much lower than that, as the surge of warm air comes in behind the warm front. The start of 2019 will be a little tricky in terms of the forecast. The cold front will be moving through at some point during the day on Tuesday. The potential is there for this to happen later in the day, which would keep us much above normal in terms of temperatures. This could even bring about the possibility of a thunderstorm as the front passes. However, timing is very uncertain at this point. The same goes for Wednesday, as we could see residual precipitation from the cold front, or it could remain dry if the front has already gone through the region. For now, keeping precip chances through Wednesday. Most of the precip in the long term should be in the form of rain, but with some light changeover possible at the end Tuesday night and/or beyond. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR all terminals through the remainder of the daylight hours with generally light winds. Deteriorating conditions likely tonight with IFR probable late as a low pressure system brings rain and low clouds back to the region. Increasing winds at 1-2 thousand feet will also lead to low level wind shear during the overnight and early morning hours. MVFR/IFR conditions will continue in low clouds and rain on Friday. A cold front will sweep eastward Friday night, bringing an end to the rain and restrictions. Building high pressure will bring VFR conditions Saturday and Saturday night, although northwest winds could gust higher than 20 knots on Saturday. Dry weather will persist into Sunday, with high pressure to our north, and low pressure far enough south to keep rain chances very minimal for our area. So, VFR conditions are likely throughout the day. However, rain moves in late Sunday night and into Monday, with sub-VFR conditions likely on Monday. && .MARINE... High pressure gradually moving offshore will result in sub-SCA winds for the remainder of the afternoon. Southerly flow picks up ahead of the next system, however, with SCA gusts developing overnight. Southerly flow continues on Friday with SCA conditions likely over the open waters of the Chesapeake Bay and lower tidal Potomac. A cold front will cross the area Friday night, shifting winds to the northwest. SCA winds will continue to be possible. A secondary dry front will cross the area Saturday, leading to gusty northwest winds. A Small Craft Advisory will be possible. A weak gradient between high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south will likely keep winds below criteria for Saturday night. High pressure will shift offshore on Sunday with return flow beginning on Monday. At this time, winds should remain below SCA criteria until perhaps behind a cold front around the middle of next week. Rain is forecast Monday, and a thunderstorm can't be ruled out on New Year's Day. && .HYDROLOGY... Model guidance is gradually trending towards a consensus solution of 1-2" of total rainfall, with localized maxima of up to 2-3" possible across portions of central Virginia. Individual model runs are still exhibiting slightly differing scenarios with GFS being the wettest and ECMWF being most southeast with their respective axes of precipitation. With 6-hour flash flood guidance on the order of 1-2", localized flooding of small streams and low lying urban areas are possible Friday, with potential for mainstem river flooding into the weekend. The current iteration of the Flood Watch highlights the area where the highest probabilities exist of rain amounts exceeding this flood guidance. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal departures will gradually rise through the remainder of today and tonight as easterly winds pile up and then rise further on Friday as winds turn southerly along the entire length of the Bay and become stronger. Our only potential saving grace for coastal flooding is that we will be in a very unfavorable lunar phase and thus need to be nearly two feet above normal high tide even at the higher of the two high tides. But minor flooding is still possible at Annapolis, DC, and Straits Point on Friday evening. Our new TWL forecast is very close to the latter hours of the latest CBOFS guidance, which would be favored in this type of wind pattern. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...Flood Watch from late tonight through late Friday night for DCZ001. MD...Flood Watch from late tonight through late Friday night for MDZ011-013-014-504-506-508. VA...Flood Watch from 1 AM EST Friday through late Friday night for VAZ025-026-029-036>039-503-504-507-508. Flood Watch from late tonight through late Friday night for VAZ040-050>056-501-502-506. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ531>533-539>542. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ534-537-543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MM NEAR TERM...MM SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...CJL AVIATION...MM/CJL MARINE...MM/CJL HYDROLOGY...MM/JE TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MM/JE  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KSHV 261218 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 618 AM CST Wed Dec 26 2018 .AVIATION... For the ArkLaTex, IFR/MVFR mainly cigs may scatter briefly this afternoon. SE SFC winds 5-10KT & SE10-30KT for climb, veering to S/SW for FLs at 30-70KT. Gusts will mix down as cigs lift a bit later this a.m. with 10-20G30KT all aftn/evening ahead of an eventual SQ line forming around midnight and moving ENE across our terminals beyond this fcst cycle. Back edge clearing from KTYR KTXK/KLFK/KSHV/KELD from 09Z-15Z and KMLU around 18Z. The fropa will hold off until overnight from 2806/2812Z NW 10-15KT. /24/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 501 AM CST Wed Dec 26 2018/ SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday/ Still some peaks of the stars early this morning with a range of mid to upper 50s. Winds are SE around 5KT, but aloft running 20-30KT at 1&2kft. For now gusts expected in the mid to late morning will be ramping up for the afternoon. The Lake wind advisory is for primarily E TX by noon and spreading East as gradient tightens. We have gone until mid evening for now as gusts may slack a bit, but sustained will continue 10-20KT. It is likely that an overnight convective watch will trump the lake anyway by mid to late evening. We are just into an enhanced risk area by around midnight through 12Z for our E TX counties late on the day one convective outlook. The slight contour covers E TX and just edges into Texarkana and Shreveport and marginal elsewhere with ongoing thunderstorm activity at daybreak, the SPC day two swings the slight risk area under I-20 from Toledo Bend dam into the MS delta with marginal remaining from Lufkin to Shreveport and El Dorado. Model consensus shows an increase in coverage of thunderstorms this evening over E TX coming to form a squall line for the overnight. Discrete cells are possible ahead of the squall with more of a QLCS potential for the overnight as the line slowly bows and undulates Eastward over the area. Rainfall totals will mount with still a good 3 to 5 inches for some top numbers under a solid divergent pattern aloft. Isolated totals may exceed that and a flood warning is possible for a spot or two, but a general areal flood advisory or warning should suffice during the overnight for a NOAA transmitter or two. Widespread flooding is a not a great concern, but some spotty antecedent soils remain quite wet in what is looking like a record month for rainfall. Southwest winds will follow the squall line out of the area with slowly clearing skies and potentially some warm temps in late day sunshine. The associated cold front will not arrive in this short term time frame. /24/ LONG TERM.../Thursday night through Tuesday/ The forecast period begins with a pronounced mid-level trough dominating the western half of the United States. This trough will be the focus of an active extended period for the region. There is GFS/ECMWF/Canadian agreement that precipitation with a cold front will exit eastward Thursday night, with high pressure to the northwest briefly bringing dry conditions to the area Friday and most of Friday night. By early on Saturday, the upper level trough across the Rockies will amplify and a southwesterly flow aloft will aid the movement of an inverted trough of low pressure from the western Gulf of Mexico northeastward into the Southeast. Our area will be on the northwestern fringe of the moisture envelope with this feature. With this in consideration, high chance POPs (40-50) are in the forecast for areas south and east of Shreveport in northern Louisiana for Saturday and Sunday. Models begin to diverge in a solution on Monday into Tuesday. The upper level trough axis will slide from the Southwest across Texas on Monday with the next surface inverted trough making a more northward push into the ArkLaTex region. The models diverge in resolving the inverted trough, with the ECMWF closing it off into a surface low and the GFS keeping the feature open as a trough and pushing heavier precipitation further eastward of the area. Forecast is a blend between the two with likely POPs Monday before high pressure builds in from the northwest drys the forecast out for the middle of next week. The GFS is a colder solution and brings a better chance of a light wintry mix of precipitation with the forecast Monday night into early Tuesday, but it currently looks like precipitation pushes east of the area before lower level critical thickness lines drop southeast into the area. Thus, the forecast precip type remains all rain at this time through this period. For temperatures, highs will be near normal ranging from the lower 50s in southeastern Oklahoma to the lower 60s in central Louisiana on Friday. Cooler air will advect into the area with cloud coverage with a more active pattern limiting highs to the upper 40s to lower 50s for the weekend into the middle of next week. /04/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 69 61 69 43 / 20 100 70 10 MLU 69 62 70 48 / 20 100 100 20 DEQ 66 56 67 36 / 20 100 30 0 TXK 66 57 67 40 / 20 100 60 10 ELD 67 59 68 43 / 20 100 100 10 TYR 68 55 67 39 / 70 100 20 0 GGG 68 57 69 40 / 40 100 30 10 LFK 69 61 70 43 / 80 100 70 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CST this evening for ARZ059-070-071. LA...Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CST this evening for LAZ001-002. OK...Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CST this evening for OKZ077. TX...Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CST this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151. && $$ 24/04/99  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KAKQ 241951 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 251 PM EST Mon Dec 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure returns today through Wednesday night. A complex area of low pressure impacts the region late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 PM EST Monday... Happy Holidays from all of us at NWS Wakefield! Quiet Christmas Eve across the region with high pressure in control. Partly to Mostly clear skies should allow for a decent radiational cooling night despite some wind especially across the east, so expect temps to drop into the mid-upr 20s NW to lower 30s SE by Christmas morning. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 245 PM EST Monday... Generally quiet weather continues through Thursday as high pressure remains stationary from the NE states through the Middle Atlantic. May be some clouds especially across the north on Christmas Day as a sheared out short wave and jet streak rides well north of the area. However, no precipitation is expected with very weak lift. The clouds will keep temps cooler than today, especially across the north. Temps on Tuesday will be in the mid 40s along/north of I-64 to upper 40s-50 south. Slow warming trend for Wed and Thu as heights build and 850mb temps slowly warm. Highs Wednesday in the low-mid 50s, with highs Thursday in the mid 50s north to near 60 SE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 245 PM EST Monday... Next system to impact the region will be Thu night into Friday. Broad SW flow ahead of a deep low pressure system over the MS Vly and Great Lakes will allow for broad isentropic lift across the region through Friday. Precipitable water values rise to near +3SD from the climatological mean for this time of year, so another round of moderate rainfall expected. 00Z EPS probabilities suggest a 50% prob of at least an inch of precipitation Thu night into Friday, but very low probs of >2 inches. This rainfall may be enough to push the main stem rivers into flood once again per MMEFS forecasts from the GEFS and NAEFS, but widespread flooding not expected. However we will certainly be adding to our already record or near record rainfall for several locations in 2018. Models diverge starting Saturday, with the ECMWF suggesting that the front will stall out just south of the area for the weekend, while the other models are more progressive, with another weak upper disturbance impacting the region for Sunday. For now, will maintain a dry forecast for Saturday with the exception of the far southeast, but bring back chance PoPs for Sunday. Next system looks to reload later Monday as a strong upper trough digs over the plains states. Will keep small chance pops on Monday for now, but it is noted that the GFS keeps it dry until New Years Day. Temps will be mild on Friday, as any left over wedge will be quickly scoured out. Highs will generally be in the 60s. A little cooler on Saturday, but still in the upper 50s/lower 60s. Cooler for the Sun/Mon, but temps still near normal in the lower 50s. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1200 PM EST Monday... VFR conditions for the 18Z TAF period. N-NW winds 10-15 kt this afternoon (gusts around 20 kt possible at KSBY and KRIC). Outlook: Dry with VFR conditions through early Thu. The next round of pcpn arrives Thursday night and continues Friday. && .MARINE... As of 245 AM EST Monday... Current observations show NW winds around 10 to 20 knots over the waters. Seas are generally around 3 to 4 feet and waves in the Bay around 1 to 3 feet. Breezy conditions will continue this evening into tonight due to the pressure gradient between departing low pressure offshore and high pressure building to the west of the area. Winds may briefly approach SCA criteria tonight across the northern coastal waters, especially out 20 nm, where winds may gust to 25 knots. Winds will remain elevated this evening into tonight, but any SCA conditions will generally be short lived in nature, thus opted not to issue a SCA at this time. Winds decrease later tonight into Christmas morning. Christmas day through Thursday will feature sub-SCA conditions with winds at around 5 to 15 knots over the waters. The next system approaches from the west late Thursday into Friday, with SCA conditions possible by Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 245 PM EST Monday... Just dropped the flood warning for the James River at the RIC Locks. Continued the flood warning for Westham, but it should be dropping below flood stage this evening. See latest FLS for details. Not much time for the rivers to subside before the next round of rain Thu night into Friday may cause the main stem rivers to once again go into flood Friday or into the weekend per the MMEFS forecasts from the GEFS and NAEFS. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM/MRD NEAR TERM...MRD SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...JDM/MRD MARINE...AJB HYDROLOGY...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KAKQ 241125 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 625 AM EST Mon Dec 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure returns today through Wednesday night. A complex area of low pressure impacts the region late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 625 AM EST Monday... Weak sfc low pressure and an attendant cold front have pushed offshore this morning. In the wake, dry NW flow develops as high pressure noses back into the region from the west today. The last of the cloud cover exits the Eastern Shore before 14z; otherwise, sunny today with afternoon max temps from the upr 40s on the Eastern Shore to the low 50s SE VA/NE NC. Mainly clear and chilly tonight. Lows from the mid/upr 20s inland to the low 30s immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EST Monday... High pressure builds slowly east Tues through Wed. This results in dry wx with seasonable temps thru the period. Expect a partly to mostly cloudy sky on Tue as a trof aloft passes. Mostly sunny Wed. Highs Tue in the 40s. Lows Tues night from the upr 20s to mid 30s. Highs Wed in the upr 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 215 PM EST Sunday... Deepening low pres over the nations mid section Wed tracks NE across the Gt Lakes region Thus then into New England Fri. Meanwhile, a srn stream triple point low and assctd frontal bndrys will track across the sern states late Thurs nite then ne across the srn Mid Atlantic coastal areas erly Fri, with the main cold front not progged across the area until late Fri. Srn stream moisture will get pulled north across the region starting Thurs nite and Fri before getting pushed south into the Carolinas by Sat. Latest data continues to slow the onset of pcpn across the local area until Thurs nite, so kept Thurs dry with incrg clouds. Highs mid 40s-mid 50s. Kept chc PoPs Thurs eve ramping up to likely PoPs after midnight, with likely PoPs continuing Fri. Will not rule out thunder chcs along the sern coastal areas but it will all depend on the track of the triple point low and just how far inland the warm front can get. This scenario may actually set up an insitu-wedge across the nw Piedmont zones. Lows Thurs nite in the 40s to near 50 SE. Highs Fri in the 60s, except in the 50s across the nw. Pcpn get shunted south of the local area Fri night post fropa so will keep chc PoPs thru the eve then end it after midnite. Lows mid 40s-mid 50s. Models are showing a dry day Sat as the frontal bndry stalls across the south with high pressure nudging in from the north. Still mild as the cold push of air is slow to cross the mts. Highs mid 50s-mid 60s. Turning colder by Sun but uncertainty exists between guid on how fast pcpn returns north. GFS shows high pres winning out while the ECMWF showing anthr s/w wave moving north returning pcpn to the region. Will keep Sat nite dry for now with lows upr 30s-mid 40s. Rain returns from the south Sun. Highs mid 40s-lwr 50s. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 625 AM EST Monday... VFR conditions for the 12Z TAF period. NW winds 10-15 kt during the day (gusts around 20 kt at KSBY). Outlook: Dry with VFR conditions through early Thu. The next round of pcpn arrives Thursday night and continues Friday. && .MARINE... As of 115 AM EST Monday... Weak lo pres W of the Bay attm will be pushing across the waters early this morning. SSW winds mainly aob 10 kt will become NW 10-20 kt as the low departs early this morning. Winds may briefly approach SCA criteria in the Bay and northern coastal waters this morning with wind gusts of 20 kt (Bay) to 25 kt (ocean) possible, especially at elevated sites. Winds slowly decrease this afternoon/evening. Hi pres builds back into the region tonight leading to night leading to a period of sub-SCA lasting at least into Thu. Stronger lo pres is expected approach the waters by the end of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 625 AM EST Monday... Flood warnings remain in effect along the James for Ric-Westham, RIC City locks. See latest FLS for details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...JDM MARINE...ALB HYDROLOGY...AKQ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KAKQ 231719 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1219 PM EST Sun Dec 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Weak low pressure moves across the region tonight. High pressure returns Monday through Wednesday night. A complex area of low pressure tracks across the region late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1015 AM EST Sunday... High pressure remains overhead attm with hardly a cloud in the sky. Models a bit slower to increase the clouds and moisture ahead of the s/w apprchg from the sw. Thus, adjusted cloud coverage down a bit thru the early afternoon hrs and dropped pcpn from the wrn most zones thru 00Z. Highs from the upr 40s Eastern Shore to the mid 50s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM EST Sunday... Quick moving s/w trough crosses the area tonight. Still some model differences with respect to available moisture but will keep slight chc to chc PoPs (highest N of I-64) across the FA during the evening with little in the way of QPF (a few hundredths at best). Moisture lingers across the lower MD Eastern Shore for a few hours after midnight with thermal profiles showing the lower levels staying warm enough for just rain showers. Otherwise, decreasing clouds after midnight. Lows from the low-mid 30s north/NW to lower 40s sern coastal areas. High pressure returns for the holiday period with near seasonable temps. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies both days with mstly clear skies at night. Highs Mon from the mid 40s north to the lower 50s SE. Lows Mon night from the mid-upr 20s to lower 30s. Highs Tues in the mid-upr 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM EST Saturday... Dry as high pressure overhead Tues night and Wed slides off the New England coast Wed night. Lows Tue night upr 20s-mid 30s. Highs Wed upr 40s-lwr 50s. Lows Wed night in the 30s to near 40 se. Next powerhouse low across the central CONUS mid week is progged to eject ne across the Gt Lakes region Fri then across nrn New England Sat. Warmer air surges north ahead of this system late Thurs thru Fri as the high retreats farther off the coast. Ample moisture accompanies a southern stream s/w that tracks across the region Thurs night / Fri. Thus, the potential exists for yet another wet system late in the week. Will have chc rain Thurs eve ramping up to likely PoPs after midnight, with likely PoPs continuing Fri. GFS and ECMWF now end the rain north to south Fri night, pushing it into the Carolinas by 12Z Sat. Highs Thu upr 40s-upr 50s. Lows Thu night in the 40s to near 50 se. Highs Fri upr 50s-upr 60s. Lows Fri night mid 40s-mid 50s. Still mild Sat behind the system as the CAA to the north remains nw of the mts thru the day. Highs mid 50s-lwr 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1215 PM EST Sunday... VFR to start off the forecast period with only SCT CU expected through sunset. Mid level cloud deck quickly overspreads the region this eve as a weak area of low pressure tracks NE across the region. SCT light shwrs will move sw to ne this eve and during the pre-dawn hrs across the ern shore. The systm quickly exits off to the ne early Mon with skies clrg behind it. Don't expect more than a 2-4 hr prd of pcpn at any one site with RIC and SBY standing the best chc for seeing rain, lesser chcs toward the coast. CIGS generally VFR, but will likely lwr to MVFR during any shwr. Ltllie if any restrictions in VSBY expected. Light SSW wind shifts to the WNW behind the departing systm Mon. Outlook: Dry with VFR conditions Mon thru early Thu. The next round of pcpn arrives Thursday night and continues Friday. && .MARINE... As of 130 AM EST Sunday... Hi pres extends from the coastal SE states N to near the local waters attm and remains near the region through this morning then shifts offshore into this evening. A cold front approaches from the W this evening...then crosses the waters tonight resulting in an uptick in winds...esp over the coastal waters...but conditions are expected to remain sub-SCA. A period of surge in speeds w/ winds becoming NW late tonight/Mon morning (though remaining blo SCA) before hi pres arrives for Mon night. Sub-SCA conditions are expected Tue into Wed as hi pres remains in control over the waters. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 1015 AM EST Sunday... Flood warnings remain in effect along the James for Ric-Westham, RIC City locks and Bremo Bluff. See latest FLS for details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...MPR MARINE...ALB HYDROLOGY...MPR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KAKQ 231518 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1018 AM EST Sun Dec 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure traverses the mid Atlantic region today. A weak area of low pressure passes across the region tonight. High pressure returns Monday through Wednesday. A complex area of low pressure tracks across the region late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1015 AM EST Sunday... High pressure remains overhead attm with hardly a cloud in the sky. Models a bit slower to increase the clouds and moisture ahead of the s/w apprchg from the sw. Thus, adjusted cloud coverage down a bit thru the early afternoon hrs and dropped pcpn from the wrn most zones thru 00Z. Highs from the upr 40s Eastern Shore to the mid 50s south. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 330 AM EST Sunday... Quick moving s/w trough crosses the area tonight. Still some model differences with respect to available moisture but will keep slight chc to chc PoPs (highest N of I-64) across the FA during the evening with little in the way of QPF (a few hundredths at best). Moisture lingers across the lower MD Eastern Shore for a few hours after midnight with thermal profiles showing the lower levels staying warm enough for just rain showers. Otherwise, decreasing clouds after midnight. Lows from the low-mid 30s north/NW to lower 40s sern coastal areas. High pressure returns for the holiday period with near seasonable temps. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies both days with mstly clear skies at night. Highs Mon from the mid 40s north to the lower 50s SE. Lows Mon night from the mid-upr 20s to lower 30s. Highs Tues in the mid-upr 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM EST Saturday... Dry as high pressure overhead Tues night and Wed slides off the New England coast Wed night. Lows Tue night upr 20s-mid 30s. Highs Wed upr 40s-lwr 50s. Lows Wed night in the 30s to near 40 se. Next powerhouse low across the central CONUS mid week is progged to eject ne across the Gt Lakes region Fri then across nrn New England Sat. Warmer air surges north ahead of this system late Thurs thru Fri as the high retreats farther off the coast. Ample moisture accompanies a southern stream s/w that tracks across the region Thurs night / Fri. Thus, the potential exists for yet another wet system late in the week. Will have chc rain Thurs eve ramping up to likely PoPs after midnight, with likely PoPs continuing Fri. GFS and ECMWF now end the rain north to south Fri night, pushing it into the Carolinas by 12Z Sat. Highs Thu upr 40s-upr 50s. Lows Thu night in the 40s to near 50 se. Highs Fri upr 50s-upr 60s. Lows Fri night mid 40s-mid 50s. Still mild Sat behind the system as the CAA to the north remains nw of the mts thru the day. Highs mid 50s-lwr 60s. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 630 AM EST Sunday... Sfc high pressure slides off the coast today, as low pressure approaches from the SW late. The low crosses the area this evening into early Monday morning with brief MVFR conditions possible at KRIC and KSBY with BKN/OVC CIGS around 2500-3000 ft. Wdly sct showers will be possible from 00z-06z Mon. Winds will remain light through the 12z TAF period. Outlook: Dry with VFR conditions Mon-Wed. The next round of pcpn looks to arrive late Thursday or Friday. && .MARINE... As of 130 AM EST Sunday... Hi pres extends from the coastal SE states N to near the local waters attm and remains near the region through this morning then shifts offshore into this evening. A cold front approaches from the W this evening...then crosses the waters tonight resulting in an uptick in winds...esp over the coastal waters...but conditions are expected to remain sub-SCA. A period of surge in speeds w/ winds becoming NW late tonight/Mon morning (though remaining blo SCA) before hi pres arrives for Mon night. Sub-SCA conditions are expected Tue into Wed as hi pres remains in control over the waters. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 1015 AM EST Sunday... Flood warnings remain in effect for Ric-Westham, RIC City locks and Bremo Bluff on the James. See latest FLS for details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM/MPR SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...JDM MARINE...ALB HYDROLOGY...MPR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KAKQ 221902 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 202 PM EST Sat Dec 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds across the southeastern states through Sunday. A weak area of low pressure passes across the region Sunday night. High pressure returns Monday through Wednesday. A complex area of low pressure tracks across the region late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 200 PM EST Saturday... Mstly clr as high pressure builds into the sern states. Winds diminish this evening and decouple across the Piedmont after midnite. Lows in the upr 20s-mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 PM EST Saturday... Sfc high slides off the sern coast Sun. Mstly sunny to start with incrg clouds in the aftrn ahead of the next systm apprchg from the west. Just enough moisture noted for a light shwr across the wrn most zones late. Highs upr 40s-mid 50s. Quick moving s/w trough crosses the area Sun night. Still some model differences wrt avbl moisture but will keep low chc PoPs across the fa during the evening with little in the way of QPF. A few hundredths at best. Moisture lingers across the lwr Md ern shore for a few hrs after midnight with thermal profiles showing the lwr levels staying warm enuf for just rain shwrs. Otw, decreasing clouds after midnite. Lows low-mid 30s north to lwr 40s sern coastal areas. High pressure returns for the holiday period with seasonable temps. Expect pt to mstly sunny skies both days with mstly clr skies at night. Highs Mon mid 40s north to lwr 50s south. Lows Mon nite upr 20s-mid 30s. Highs Tues in the mid-upr 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM EST Saturday... Dry as high pressure overhead Tues night and Wed slides off the New England coast Wed nite. Lows Tue nite upr 20s-mid 30s. Highs Wed upr 40s-lwr 50s. Lows Wed nite in the 30s to near 40 se. Next powerhouse low across the central CONUS mid week is progged to eject ne across the Gt Lakes region Fri then across nrn New England Sat. Warmer air surges north ahead of this system late Thurs thru Fri as the high retreats farther off the coast. Ample moisture accompanies a southern stream s/w that tracks across the region Thurs nite / Fri. Thus, the potential exists for yet anthr wet system late in the week. Will have chc rain Thurs eve ramping up to likely PoPs after midnight, with likely PoPs continuing Fri. GFS and ECMWF now end the rain north to south Fri night, pushing it into the Carolinas by 12Z Sat. Highs Thu upr 40s-upr 50s. Lows Thu nite in the 40s to near 50 se. Highs Fri upr 50s-upr 60s. Lows Fri night mid 40s-mid 50s. Still mild Sat behind the system as the CAA to the north remains nw of the mts thru the day. Highs mid 50s-lwr 60s. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1215 PM EST Saturday... VFR conditions continue through the forecast period as high pressure builds across the sern states. Gusty west winds 15-25 KTS through 00Z. Outlook: Low pressure passes over the local area Sun night into early Mon with winds turning back to the SSW, an increase in clouds, and scattered showers Sun night. Otherwise, dry with benign conditions Mon-Wed. && .MARINE... As of 135 AM EST Saturday... A cold front will be crossing the waters (early) this morning w/ WSW winds 10-20 kt becoming NW 15-25 kt...maybe a few gusts to 30 kt as CAA begins. Upper level trough to swing across the region then offshore this afternoon. SCA conditions will remains until late afternoon/early evening then winds subside and waves/seas lower (blo SCA criteria) - lastly on the nrn ocean waters. Hi pres builds into the region tonight then quickly gives way Sun as a second cold approaches from the W (by late in the day). That second cold front crosses the waters Sun night resulting in a modest bump in the winds to 10 to 15 kt from the SW which become NW post-frontal Monday morning. Hi pres then returns to the local area on Christmas Eve before slowly sliding off the coast on Christmas day with a slight increase in the winds from the W-SW. But overall conditions should remain well below SCA levels into mid week. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 200 PM EST Saturday... Issued another flood warning for the Westham gage on the James as it is now expected to crest at moderate flooding levels tonight. Flood warnings remain in effect for the Ric City locks / Bremo Bluff. All other basins will remain below minor flooding thresholds. See latest FLW / FLS for details. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 135 AM EST Saturday... Coastal flood advisories remain in place this current tide cycle for the areas along the bay on the lower MD ern shore. Tides running about 1.5 ft above normal w/ minor flooding expected. High surf advisory will be cancelled for the Maryland beaches and Accomack, VA will be cancelled shortly. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>633-635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ656- 658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...MPR SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...MPR MARINE...ALB HYDROLOGY...MPR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KAKQ 221718 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1218 PM EST Sat Dec 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds across the region today into Sunday morning. A weak area of low pressure passes through the region Sunday night, with high pressure returning Monday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1000 AM EST Saturday... Latest MSAS has the cold front offshore with a lingering trof east of the mts. SCT-BKN AC deck assctd with this feature continues to track across ern half of the fa. Thus, only minor changes made to grids as the rest of the day should be pt to mslty sunny and breezy. West winds avgg 15-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph at times. Highs in the low-mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 320 AM EST Saturday... High pressure traverses the local area tonight into Sunday morning before pushing offshore late Sunday. Clear and colder tonight. Lows in the 30s. Mostly sunny to start Sunday, then increasing clouds from west to east in the aftn ahead of the next system approaching from the WSW. Highs Sunday in the upr 40s to mid 50s. Models showing better agreement that a quick moving shortwave trough crosses the local area Sunday night. As such, have added slight chc PoPs across the Piedmont after 21z Sunday, with 15-25% Pops south and 30-40% PoPs along/north of I-64 between 00-06z Monday. Pcpn ends across the lower MD Eastern Shore by daybreak Monday. Lows Sunday night in the 30s to near 40. Mostly sunny and seasonable Monday with high pressure returning. Highs mid 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM EST Friday... Long range global models agree that high pressure will be in control of the local weather to start the extended forecast. Zonal flow aloft will allow a minor shortwave trough to clip our northern zones late Tuesday and early Wednesday. Not expecting more than an increase in clouds with this feature and have left the forecast dry for Christmas. The upper level height field begins to amplify on Wednesday as surface low pressure strengthens across the central part of the country. Timing differences begin to become evident by late Wednesday with the GFS strengthening the system and moving it northeastward while the ECMWF is a bit slower. Strong surface high pressure (1035+mb) will slide into the northeastern CONUS ahead of this feature and provide a favorable setup for cold air damming across the Piedmont as high pressure ridges down the spine of the Appalachians. Models show differing timing regarding precip arrival across the Mid Atlantic so will go with a blend of the GFS and Euro and show slowly increasing PoPs from west-to-east late Thursday into Friday morning. Daytime high temperatures through the extended will generally be in the upper 40s and low 50s while lows will range from the upper 20s into the 30s. A slow warming trend is expected through the extended period as southerly flow ahead of the central CONUS system gets underway later in the week. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1215 PM EST Saturday... VFR conditions continue through the forecast period as high pressure builds across the sern states. Gusty west winds 15-25 KTS through 00Z. Outlook: Low pressure passes over the local area Sun night into early Mon with winds turning back to the SSW, an increase in clouds, and scattered showers Sun night. Otherwise, dry with benign conditions Mon-Wed. && .MARINE... As of 135 AM EST Saturday... A cold front will be crossing the waters (early) this morning w/ WSW winds 10-20 kt becoming NW 15-25 kt...maybe a few gusts to 30 kt as CAA begins. Upper level trough to swing across the region then offshore this afternoon. SCA conditions will remains until late afternoon/early evening then winds subside and waves/seas lower (blo SCA criteria) - lastly on the nrn ocean waters. Hi pres builds into the region tonight then quickly gives way Sun as a second cold approaches from the W (by late in the day). That second cold front crosses the waters Sun night resulting in a modest bump in the winds to 10 to 15 kt from the SW which become NW post-frontal Monday morning. Hi pres then returns to the local area on Christmas Eve before slowly sliding off the coast on Christmas day with a slight increase in the winds from the W-SW. But overall conditions should remain well below SCA levels into mid week. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 1200 PM EST Saturday... Cancelled the warning at Cartersville as it crested just below flood stage early this morning. Watching Westham gage as it may pop up above the 15 ft moderate stage over the next 24 hrs. Bremo and the RIC City locks have been extended into Mon. All other basins will remain below minor flooding thresholds. See latest FLS for details. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 135 AM EST Saturday... Coastal flood advisories remain in place this current tide cycle for the areas along the bay on the lower MD ern shore. Tides running about 1.5 ft above normal w/ minor flooding expected. High surf advisory will be cancelled for the Maryland beaches and Accomack, VA will be cancelled shortly. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>633. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ656- 658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM/MPR SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...RHR AVIATION...MPR MARINE...ALB HYDROLOGY... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KAKQ 220823 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 323 AM EST Sat Dec 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front pushes offshore early this morning. High pressure builds across the region today into Sunday morning. A weak area of low pressure passes through the region Sunday night, with high pressure returning Monday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 320 AM EST Saturday... Sfc low pressure resides over southern Quebec early this morning with a cold front extending south into the local area. The front and associated shower activity will push offshore before daybreak, then dry NW flow will return for the remainder of today. Morning clouds will break for sunshine by this afternoon. Highs today 50-55F but with a chilly breeze. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 320 AM EST Saturday... High pressure traverses the local area tonight into Sunday morning before pushing offshore late Sunday. Clear and colder tonight. Lows in the 30s. Mostly sunny to start Sunday, then increasing clouds from west to east in the aftn ahead of the next system approaching from the WSW. Highs Sunday in the upr 40s to mid 50s. Models showing better agreement that a quick moving shortwave trough crosses the local area Sunday night. As such, have added slight chc PoPs across the Piedmont after 21z Sunday, with 15-25% Pops south and 30-40% PoPs along/north of I-64 between 00-06z Monday. Pcpn ends across the lower MD Eastern Shore by daybreak Monday. Lows Sunday night in the 30s to near 40. Mostly sunny and seasonable Monday with high pressure returning. Highs mid 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 330 PM EST Friday... Long range global models agree that high pressure will be in control of the local weather to start the extended forecast. Zonal flow aloft will allow a minor shortwave trough to clip our northern zones late Tuesday and early Wednesday. Not expecting more than an increase in clouds with this feature and have left the forecast dry for Christmas. The upper level height field begins to amplify on Wednesday as surface low pressure strengthens across the central part of the country. Timing differences begin to become evident by late Wednesday with the GFS strengthening the system and moving it northeastward while the ECMWF is a bit slower. Strong surface high pressure (1035+mb) will slide into the northeastern CONUS ahead of this feature and provide a favorable setup for cold air damming across the Piedmont as high pressure ridges down the spine of the Appalachians. Models show differing timing regarding precip arrival across the Mid Atlantic so will go with a blend of the GFS and Euro and show slowly increasing PoPs from west-to-east late Thursday into Friday morning. Daytime high temperatures through the extended will generally be in the upper 40s and low 50s while lows will range from the upper 20s into the 30s. A slow warming trend is expected through the extended period as southerly flow ahead of the central CONUS system gets underway later in the week. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 320 AM EST Saturday... Generally improving conditions with clouds scattering out from 09-12Z and W winds diminishing to 10-15 kt on avg. VFR/mostly sunny with a breezy WNW wind developing today (gusts to 20-25kt from 15-21Z). Outlook: High pressure and dry conditions prevail Sat night/Sun. A low pressure system passes over the local area late Sun into early Mon with winds turning back to the SSW, an increase in clouds, and scattered showers Sun night. Otherwise, dry with fairly benign conditions Mon-Wed. && .MARINE... As of 135 AM EST Saturday... A cold front will be crossing the waters (early) this morning w/ WSW winds 10-20 kt becoming NW 15-25 kt...maybe a few gusts to 30 kt as CAA begins. Upper level trough to swing across the region then offshore this afternoon. SCA conditions will remains until late afternoon/early evening then winds subside and waves/seas lower (blo SCA criteria) - lastly on the nrn ocean waters. Hi pres builds into the region tonight then quickly gives way Sun as a second cold approaches from the W (by late in the day). That second cold front crosses the waters Sun night resulting in a modest bump in the winds to 10 to 15 kt from the SW which become NW post-frontal Monday morning. Hi pres then returns to the local area on Christmas Eve before slowly sliding off the coast on Christmas day with a slight increase in the winds from the W-SW. But overall conditions should remain well below SCA levels into mid week. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 320 AM EST Saturday... Flood warnings continue for most points on the James River. All other basins will remain below minor flooding thresholds. See latest FLS products for site-specific details. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 135 AM EST Saturday... Coastal flood advisories remain in place this current tide cycle for the areas along the bay on the lower MD ern shore. Tides running about 1.5 ft above normal w/ minor flooding expected. High surf advisory will be cancelled for the Maryland beaches and Accomack, VA will be cancelled shortly. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>633. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ656- 658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...RHR AVIATION...JDM MARINE...ALB HYDROLOGY...AKQ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KPBZ 201707 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1207 PM EST Thu Dec 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Rain returns this afternoon and will continue through Friday, before ending as snow Friday night and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Similar to yesterday, with the noon update brought high temperatures down a degree or two. Cloud thickness appears as if it will play a large role in temperatures today - while PIT is 41 and AGC is 46, there have been less clouds out in Latrobe where the noon temperature was 55 degrees. Still feel that 40s and 50s will be widespread, but the warm places will be determined by where high clouds aren't as thick. Previous discussion follows. 8 AM Update: 12Z PBZ sounding shows a sharp, shallow inversion (30F at Surface, 48F at 400ft). This leftover decoupled layer will quickly erode with diurnal mixing and strong southerly flow. Otherwise, previous forecast remains on track. Previous Discussion.... Rain associated with a surface low will begin moving into the region from south to north this afternoon and encompass the region by sunset. Under warm air advection ahead of the surface low, temperatures will rise into the upper 40s and 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Large trough will keep precipitation across the region into Saturday. It appears the bulk of the rain will fall tonight, with generally an 0.75 to 1 inch expected across the region. Impressive dry slot will overspread the area Friday morning, which will quickly reduce rainfall coverage and rates. A second plume of moisture will rapidly overspread the area late Friday morning and through the afternoon. Rainfall rates Friday afternoon look rather light as most of the lift will have shifted to the east. Temperatures on Friday will remain warm, although not as warm as today. Colder temperatures will begin to fill in on the back side of the exiting trough Friday night, and the speed at which cold air moves into the region may be the biggest key in just how much snowfall different locations receive. Only the highest elevations should receive snow Friday evening, but most other locations should change over to snow after midnight Friday. Another limiting factor to overall snowfall will be just how cold temperatures drop Friday night, as right now it appears temperatures will drop to just near the freezing mark, limiting overall snowfall accumulation. Upslope/lake enhanced snow will continue in the favored regions on Saturday, bringing light additional accumulation. Looking at BUFKIT soundings, snowfall efficiency will tail off late Friday night and Saturday as inversions lower and atmospheric saturation falls below the dendritic snow growth zone. Ridges and I-80 corridor look to hold onto snow showers the longest with the cold air advection and favorable wind direction. Highs Saturday dip below normal again. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The pattern will remain active in the extended forecast. Snow showers should come to an end along the I-80 corridor Saturday evening, but another shortwave should bring another round of light precipitation Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Precipitation would begin as rain or a mix of rain and snow Sunday afternoon, but change to all snow Sunday night. A slight chance of rain or snow showers will be in the forecast for Christmas and Christmas night. Temperatures will be close to normal with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions expected for most of the day as cloud coverage increases ahead of a low pressure system. Rain will spread south to north starting mid-afternoon causing ceilings to lower as well. Most sites will become MVFR shortly after onset of precipitation...with eventual IFR by mid/late evening and persisting through the night. Outlook... MVFR to IFR restrictions expected tonight and through the weekend with periodic rain and eventual changeover to snow Saturday. Improvements not expected until early next week. Gusty winds late Friday through Saturday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KAKQ 180753 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 253 AM EST Tue Dec 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will settle over the region tonight through Wednesday. The next area of low pressure approaches from the southwest Thursday and brings another round of rain Thursday afternoon into early Friday. The low moves into New England by Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 250 AM EST Tuesday... Latest weather analysis reveals sfc low pressure sliding ne across Atlantic Canada early this morning. The associated sfc cold front extends S-SW offshore and to the south of the local area. to the west, 1026+mb SFC high pressure centered over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley continues to push east...and will settle over the region today and tonight. Cooler but seasonable temps today with highs mainly from 45-50 F (coolest NE and warmest SW), under a mainly sunny sky. Some sct-bkn clouds tonight as a dampening upper shortwave currently over the ArkLaTex region slides across the area tonight. Lows from the m-u20s inland to u20s- around 30F SE VA- NE NC coastal areas Tue night. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 AM EST Tuesday... High pres shifts offshore tomorrow, w/ dry/seasonable conditions to continue. Highs Wed in the u40s-around 50F N and NW to the l50s S. Some increase in clouds possible late in the day into Wednesday night. High pres drifts farther off the coast Wed night while strong amplification of trough aloft begins over the central and southern Plains. With clear sky to start, expect temperatures to drop off rapidly Wed evening into the m-u30s to l40s...then become steady overnight as clouds increase and thicken/lower. Models in reasonably good agreement at this stage for Thu/Thu night system. Still appears mainly dry until daybreak for much of the area on Thu, though did increase to chc pop over the SE into Thu morning) with upglide/overrunning rain showers looking to begin quickly Thu morning across the SE coastal plain. Strong forcing /deep-layered SSW flow to allow rain chances to ramp up quickly from se to nw Thu morning, with categorical to likely rain chances for Thu afternoon and night. Highs Thu in the 40s inland NW to the l60s SE. Still some time for modeled QPF numbers to jostle around a little bit, but the Prob Matched Mean values lined up well with WPC QPF, which ranges from 1-2" across the area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 145 PM EST Monday... The highly amplified trough aloft exits the MS Valley Thu evening...shifting E through Fri. Lo pres invof mid south thu evening tracks NE through the ern OH Valley Fri...pushing a cold front to the E coast by late Fri. Timing remains fairly consistent over the past few runs of the models. Consensus shows a significant push of deep layered moisture NE through the FA Thu night into early Fri which then spreads toward the NE CONUS during Fri. Another period of moderate/heavy RA possible...then the trailing upper level trough crosses the region late Fri into early Sat may bring additional SCT pcpn. Drying out and cool for the weekend as the lo pres departs into the far nrn Atlantic. A cold front in zonal flow aloft arrives by late Mon. Mild Thu night w/ lows Thu night in the m-u40s NW to the l-m50s in E and SE. Highs Fri in the l-m60s (possibly even warmer if RA diminishes in coverage). Lows Fri night in the l-m40. Highs Highs Sat 50-55F. Lows Sat night in the l-m30s W to the u30s- around 40F at the coast. Highs Sun in the u40s N to the m50s S. Highs Mon in the u40s N to the l50s S. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1255 AM EST Tuesday... VFR conditions across area terminals will persist through the 06z TAF period and beyond into midweek. Sfc winds have veered around to the NNW behind a cold frontal passage, winds will gust briefly this morning, especially at SBY and ORF but will diminish through the day Tuesday. Clear skies and high pressure remain in control through the period. Outlook: High pres prevails Tue night and Wed. Surface low pres approaches from the SW Thu and will likely bring another round of diminishing ceilings and eventually some flight restrictions (CIGs and VSBY) in increasing rain chances beginning later Thu and continuing into Fri. VFR conditions then quickly return for next weekend. && .MARINE... As of 1000 PM EST Monday... Latest this aftn, a trough of low pressure was dropping thru SE Canada and srn New England. While, a dry cold front was dropping thru extrm nrn VA, MD and DE. Winds were W 5-15 kt over most of the waters with some gusts to near 20 kt. Waves were 1-2 ft and seas were 3-5 ft. That dry cold front will sink acrs the area this evening/tonight with winds becoming NW and increasing to 15-25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt over the waters this evening thru Tue morning. So, have maintained SCA's for all the waters and have added the upper James River (637) into Tue morning. Seas will remain in the 4-6 ft range (highest 20 NM offshore) thru Tue morning for the most part. Winds finally diminish over the waters Tue aftn/night, as an area of high pressure moves into and over the area fm the WNW. Currently have SCAs expiring for the rivers/sound from 12-15z Tue, before expiring for the bay/ocean from 18-21z Tue. Quiet marine conditions expected thru early Thu morning, before another area of low pressure approaches the region late Thu into Fri morning. This will likely bring another round of SCA conditions to the region. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 255 AM EST Tuesday... Flood warnings continue for Bremo Bluff, Richmond-Westham and the Locks. Other sites will continue to be monitored. Please refer to the latest FLS product for site-specific details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ633- 638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ656- 658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...MAM MARINE...ERI/TMG HYDROLOGY...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KAKQ 171729 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1229 PM EST Mon Dec 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the midwest will build east towards the local area this afternoon and will settle over the region tonight through Wednesday. The next area of low pressure approaches from the southwest Thursday and brings another round of rain Thursday afternoon into early Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1000 AM EST Monday... FG from earlier this morning has dissipated...w/ patchy clouds lingering E and N. Drying WNW flow taking over leading to a rather mild but breezy at times rest of the day across the FA. A weakening S/W aloft and approaching sfc cold front will bring continued patchy clouds...esp N and NE. CAA will be offset by downsloping (WNW winds gusty to 20-25 mph). Highs ranging from the mm-u50s across the N and NW to the l60s SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1000 AM EST Monday... Secondary cold front drops through the region this evening and may lead to a few clouds (and a short period of gusty NW winds...esp toward the coast)...otherwise generally SKC overall. Turning colder late tonight w/ lows in the u20s-around 30F W to the m-u30s right along the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Sfc high pres settles over the region Tue/Tue night w/ clear and dry conditions prevailing. Cooler but seasonable Tue with highs mainly from 45-50 F (coolest NE and warmest SW). Clear with lows from the m-u20s inland to upper 20s/lower 30s SE VA- NE NC coastal areas Tue night. High pres shifts offshore by Wed and dry/seasonable wx will continue. Highs Wed in the u40s N and NW to the lower 50s south. Some increase in clouds possible late in the day. High pressure drifts farther off the coast Wed night while strong amplification of trough aloft begins through the Plains states. Expect temperatures to drop off rapidly Wed evening into the upper 30s to lower 40s, then become steady overnight as clouds increase and thicken. Still appears mainly dry until daybreak Thu (~20% PoP possible NE NC well after midnight). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 PM EST Sunday... The trough will be shifting E through Fri. Lo pres moving through the lower MS Valley Thu...tracks NE through the ern OH Valley Fri...pushing a cold front to the E coast by late Fri. Timing is fairly consistent over the past few runs of the models (maybe a touch faster now). Consensus shows deep layered SSW flow resulting in quick/significant increase in moisture NE from the SE states beginning Thu morning (PoPs to 60-90% here by Thu evening)...then spreading toward the NE CONUS Fri. Another period of moderate/heavy RA possible...esp Thu evening/night...then the trailing upper level trough crosses the region late Fri/Fri night may bring additional SCT pcpn. Drying out and cool for the weekend as the lo pres departs into the far nrn Atlantic. Highs Thu in the l-m50s N and W to the l60s in SE VA-NE NC. Mild Thu night w/ lows Thu night in the upper 40s W to the m 50s in E and SE. Highs Fri in the u50s to mid 60s (possibly even warmer if rain diminishes in coverage). Lows Fri night from the u30s W to the l40s E. Highs Highs Sat and Sun in the u40s N and W to the m50s SE. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 1225 PM EST Monday... VFR conditions expected through the 18Z TAF forecast period. BKN mid-high level clouds will accompany a secondary cold front by late this afternoon/evening...esp at RIC-SBY. W winds gusty to about 20 kt at times until about 22Z/17...then NNW gusty to 20-25 kt overnight into Tue. Hi pres prevails Tue and Wed. Lo pres approaches from the SW Thu and will likely bring another round of flight restrictions beginning later Thu and continuing into Fri. && .MARINE... As of 345 AM EST Monday... Latest sfc analysis shows ~998 mb low pressure centered just SE of Nantucket Island. WNW winds have decreased to 10-15 kt over much of the bay, with 15-20 kt winds over the ocean. Waves were 1-2 ft and seas were 4-5 ft over ocean zones S of Parramore Island. However, Buoy 44009 was still reporting 7.5 ft seas as of 3 AM. Winds briefly turn more to the west and remain in the 10-15 kt range during the day today before turning back to the NW and increasing to 20-25 kt (sustained) over the bay/ocean from late this evening through Tue AM. This happens as a surge of CAA arrives from the NW, due to an upper trough moving from SE Canada to New England. The CAA tonight-Tue AM will be stronger than the CAA observed this past aftn/evening. Therefore, even with water temperatures in the mid-upper 40s, expect efficient boundary layer mixing during from tonight-Tue AM. Near-term guidance/model soundings still indicate the potential for gusts to around or just above 30 kt Mon night into Tue morning over the nrn ocean zones. In addition, will likely see a few gusts to ~30 kt at elevated sites over the Chesapeake Bay/srn ocean zones. Went ahead and issued SCAs from 00z-15z Tue for the Rappahannock/York/Lower James Rivers in addition to the Currituck Sound, due to 15-20 kt NW winds with gusts to 25 kt (highest in Lower James/Currituck Sound). Seas will remain in the 4-6 ft range (highest 20 NM offshore) through Tue AM for the most part. Winds finally diminish over the waters Tue aftn/night, as an area of high pressure moves into and over the area fm the WNW. Currently have SCAs expiring for the rivers/sound from 12-15z Tue before expiring for the bay/ocean from 18-21z Tue. Quiet marine conditions expected through early Thu AM before another area of low pressure approaches the region late Thu-Fri. This will likely bring another round of SCA conditions to the region. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 1225 PM EST Monday... Flood warnings continue for Bremo Bluff, Richmond-Westham and the Locks. Other sites will continue to be monitored. Please refer to the latest FLS product for site- specific details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ635-636. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634- 650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ633-638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...AJZ/LKB MARINE...ERI/TMG HYDROLOGY...AKQ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KAKQ 170844 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 344 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the midwest will build east towards the local area today, and will settle over the region tonight through Wednesday. The next area of low pressure approaches from the southwest Thursday and brings another round of rain Thursday afternoon into early Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM EST Monday... Latest analysis indicates strong sfc low pressure off the New England coast with sfc high pressure over the Plains states. While the deep moisture from yesterday's system has moved out of the local area, light winds and a saturated ground under skies that cleared last evening has allowed for the development and expansion of stratus and patchy dense fog from the Piedmont east into central VA. Seeing temp/dew pt spreads of 2-3 F for the most part so this does not appear to be widespread dense fog worthy of a Dense Fog Advisory, but will be issuing another SPS to make mention of this through early this morning (with some of this being patchy freezing fog as well). Temperatures early this morning mainly range from 30-35 F along and west of the I95 corridor to the upper 30s to lower- mid 40s near the coast where skies are still mostly cloudy w/ lingering stratocumulus. Temps will likely fall off another few degrees through 7 am. Otherwise, later this morning (12-15Z) as upper level shortwave that is currently over the OH Valley drops SE and passe through the CWA, we should see a rapid scouring out of this low level moisture and skies becoming mainly sunny. With decent mixing, CAA will be offset by downsloping (WNW winds gusty at times) so highs will be mild, ranging from the mid to upper 50s across the N and NW to the lower 60s SE under a mainly sunny sky. Secondary cold front drops through the region tonight and may lead to a few clouds...mainly across the ern shore but generally SKC overall. Turning colder late tonight w/ lows in the u20s- around 30F W to the mid-upper 30s right along the coast in SE VA- NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EST Monday... Sfc high pres settles over the region Tue/Tue night w/ clear and dry conditions prevailing. Cooler but seasonable Tue with highs mainly from 45-50 F (coolest NE and warmest SW). Clear with lows from the m-u20s inland to upper 20s/lower 30s SE VA- NE NC coastal areas Tue night. High pres shifts offshore by Wed and dry/seasonable wx will continue. Highs Wed in the u40s N and NW to the lower 50s south. Some increase in clouds possible late in the day. High pressure drifts farther off the coast Wed night while strong amplification of trough aloft begins through the Plains states. Expect temperatures to drop off rapidly Wed evening into the upper 30s to lower 40s, then become steady overnight as clouds increase and thicken. Still appears mainly dry until daybreak Thu (~20% PoP possible NE NC well after midnight). && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 PM EST Sunday... The trough will be shifting E through Fri. Lo pres moving through the lower MS Valley Thu...tracks NE through the ern OH Valley Fri...pushing a cold front to the E coast by late Fri. Timing is fairly consistent over the past few runs of the models (maybe a touch faster now). Consensus shows deep layered SSW flow resulting in quick/significant increase in moisture NE from the SE states beginning Thu morning (PoPs to 60-90% here by Thu evening)...then spreading toward the NE CONUS Fri. Another period of moderate/heavy RA possible...esp Thu evening/night...then the trailing upper level trough crosses the region late Fri/Fri night may bring additional SCT pcpn. Drying out and cool for the weekend as the lo pres departs into the far nrn Atlantic. Highs Thu in the l-m50s N and W to the l60s in SE VA-NE NC. Mild Thu night w/ lows Thu night in the upper 40s W to the m 50s in E and SE. Highs Fri in the u50s to mid 60s (possibly even warmer if rain diminishes in coverage). Lows Fri night from the u30s W to the l40s E. Highs Highs Sat and Sun in the u40s N and W to the m50s SE. && .AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 100 AM EST Monday... Skies slowly clearing out over the region, though some lingering BKN/OVC stratocu closer to the coast with MVFR CIGS (~1500 ft) at KSBY through about 09Z and VFR CIGS (~3500 ft) at KORF/KPHF/KECG. Also noting an area of low stratus and fog west of TAF sites in the Piedmont that could try to advect east and affect KRIC between 09-12Z. Otherwise, drier air and increased mixing after sunrise should scour out any lingering low level moisture between 12-15Z. Sunny or becoming sunny today with a W wind increasing to 10-15kt in the aftn and occasionally gusting to ~20kt in the aftn. High pressure prevails Tuesday and Wednesday. Low pressure approaches from the SW Thursday and will likely bring another round of flight restrictions beginning later Thursday and continuing into Friday. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EST Monday... && .HYDROLOGY... As of 330 AM EST Monday... Flood warnings continue for Bremo Bluff, Lawrenceville, Richmond-Westham and the Locks. Other sites will continue to be monitored. Please refer to the latest FLS product for site- specific details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ635-636. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634- 650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ633-638. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...AJZ/LKB MARINE...ERI/TMG HYDROLOGY...AKQ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KAKQ 162026 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 326 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low pressure system will push off the coast this evening. High pressure returns Monday through Wednesday, bringing dry conditions to the local area. The next area of low pressure approaches from the southwest Thursday and brings another round of rain Thursday afternoon into early Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 300 PM EST Sunday... Vertically stacked/occluded lo pres will slowly reach the coast this evening then move offshore overnight. Two lingering areas of SHRAs attm...one will be moving to the ern shore in the next couple of hours...then the trailing area (over the wrn Piedmont) will be sliding ESE through central VA toward SE VA. QPF will remain spotty and light and clouds will remain widespread. WNW winds will begin to usher in cooler air this evening w/ temperatures falling through the 40s. Beginning to clear out mainly after midnight. Lows mainly in the m-u30s...except around 40F right along the Bay/ocean in ern VA and NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM EST Sunday... Models in good agreement that a welcome dry pattern will prevail both Mon/Tue. Sfc lo pres will be pushing off the New England coast Mon morning with sfc hi pres over the Midwest. CAA will be offset by downsloping (WNW winds gusty at times) so highs will be mild on Mon...ranging from the mid 50s across the N and NW to the l60s SE under a mainly sunny sky. Secondary cold front drops through the region Mon night and may lead to a few clouds...mainly across the ern shore but generally SKC overall. Turning colder Mon night w/ lows in the u20s-around 30F W to the mid 30s right along the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Sfc hi pres settles over the region Tue/Tue night w/ clear and dry conditions prevailing. Cooler but seasonable Tue with highs mainly from 45-50 F (coolest NE and warmest SW). Clear with lows from the m-u20s inland to lower 30s SE VA-NE NC coastal areas Tue night. Hi pres shifts offshore by Wed and dry/seasonable wx will continue. Highs Wed in the u40s N and NW to the l50s S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 PM EST Sunday... Hi pres drifts farther off the coast Wed night while strong amplification of trough aloft begins through the Plains states. That trough will be shifting E through Fri. Lo pres moving through the lower MS Valley Thu...tracks NE through the ern OH Valley Fri...pushing a cold front to the E coast by late Fri. Timing is fairly consistent over the past few runs of the models (maybe a touch faster now). Consensus shows deep layered SSW flow resulting in quick/significant increase in moisture NE from the SE states beginning Thu morning (PoPs to 60-90% here by Thu evening)...then spreading toward the NE CONUS Fri. Another period of moderate/heavy RA possible...esp Thu evening/night...then the trailing upper level trough crosses the region late Fri/Fri night may bring additional SCT pcpn. Drying out and cool for the weekend as the lo pres departs into the far nrn Atlantic. Lows Wed night in the 30s...except l40s at the coast in ern VA- NE NC. Highs Thu in the l-m50s N and W to the l60s in SE VA-NE NC. Mild Thu night w/ lows Thu night in the m-u40s W to the m50s in E and SE. Highs Fri in the u50s to l60s. Lows Fri night from the u30s W to the l40s E. Highs Highs Sat and Sun in the u40s N and W to the m50s SE. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 135 PM EST Sunday... Generally MVFR conditions (CIGS) w/ occasional IFR into tonight as lo pres is slow to track over then E and off the coast. An area of SHRAs will be easing E to the coast through about 00-02Z/17. Winds WSW gusty to 20 kt becoming NW. Drier air with improving conditions arrive overnight into Mon and will then persist through Wed. Somewhat breezy WNW winds during the day Mon with gusts to ~20 kt possible. Lo pres approaches from the SW Thu and will likely bring another round of flight restrictions beginning later Thursday and continuing in Fri. && .MARINE... As of 345 AM EST Sunday... Cancelled Marine Dense Fog Advisory for the nrn Chesapeake Bay, Rappahannock River, and nrn ocean zones as VSBYS have improved. Latest sfc analysis shows two low pressure centers: one near the MD/DE border and another over the mountains of WV. Upper level low pressure over east-central TN Sat aftn has moved into wrn NC early this morning. Winds have shifted to SW over the marine areas at 10- 15 knots, but seas remain elevated (6-8 ft north of Parramore Island/4-6 feet south). Winds increase out of the W then NW this evening through tonight as the aforementioned sfc low in WV moves offshore to the NE of the area. Near-term guidance/BUFKIT soundings indicate just enough CAA/925-975 mb winds on the back side of the low to allow for a period of SCA level winds across the bay/ocean. Therefore, went ahead and issued an SCA for all Chesapeake Bay zones from 18z today-09z Mon. Winds turn more westerly and decrease to 10-15 knots during the day on Mon. Winds then turn to the NW and increase to 20 kt over the bay/Currituck Sound, 25 kt over the ocean, and 15-18 kt over the lower rivers. This is due to an upper trough moving from SE Canada to New England, which will allow a shot of colder air to move into the Mid-Atlc from the NW. Model soundings show the potential for gusts to around/just above 30 knots Mon night-Tue, mainly over the nrn ocean zones (along w/ solid SCA conditions over much of the area). Winds finally diminish over the waters Tue aftn-Wed, as an area of high pressure moves into and over the area from the NW. Seas likely remain at least 5 ft through Tue over the nrn ocean zones, but may drop below 5 ft from late tonight-Mon S of Cape Charles. With new headlines for the bay today/tonight, opted not to extend/issue SCAs for the late Mon/Tue timeframe attm since it is still 36-48 hours out. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 325 PM Sunday... Flood warning has been cancelled at Farmville while remaining in effect for Bremo Bluff, Lawrenceville, Richmond-Westham and the Locks. Other sites will continue to be monitored. Please refer to the latest FLS product for site-specific details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634- 650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...ALB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...ALB/LKB MARINE...ERI/TMG HYDROLOGY...AKQ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KAKQ 161225 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 725 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low pressure system will cross the area today and push off the coast by this evening. High pressure returns Monday through Wednesday, bringing dry conditions to the local area. The next area of low pressure approaches from the southwest Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 700 AM EST Sunday... Latest analysis indicates sfc low pressure now sliding off the MD coast. Aloft, upper level low pressure can be seen spinning from central NC to south central VA and will drift ENE through the aftn. SW low level wind now prevails over the area. Still only some spotty light rain is occurring over the N/NW. Temperatures remain fairly warm for Dec, ranging from the mid 40s in the Piedmont to the lower 50s near the coast. As the upper low moves ENE later today, PoPs will ramp back up to likely for central and nrn zones through midday/early afternoon...then shift off to the NE by later afternoon/early evening. Cooler...w/ highs occurring now over much of the area with temps likely falling a few degrees by aftn, to the mid 40s N to the upper 40s/low 50s south. An area of SHRAS may linger across the E and NE (esp on the ern shore) this evening...as low pressure departs the region. Lows in the 30s most areas tonight, but precip will end before any P-type issues arise. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM EST Sunday... Models in good agreement that a welcome dry pattern will prevail both Mon/Tue. Sfc low pressure will be pushing off the New England coast Mon morning with sfc high pressure over the midwest. Cold air advection will be offset by downslope warming so highs will be mild on Mon, ranging from the mid 50s across the north to the lower 60s south under mainly sunny skies. Secondary cold front drops through the region Mon night and may lead to a few clouds across the eastern shore but skies will be mostly clear overall. Turning colder Mon night w/ lows in the u20s- around 30F W to the mid 30s along the coast in SE VA- NE NC. Sfc high settles over the region Tue/Tue night with clear and dry conditions to prevail. Cooler but seasonable Tue with highs mainly from 45-50 F (coolest NE and warmest SW). Clear with lows from the mid 20s to lower 30s Tue night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 PM EST Saturday... High pres shifts offshore by Wed. Dry/seasonable wx is expected. Amplification of trough aloft now appears to be potentially stronger on latest mid range models through the MS/OH/TN Valleys Thu/Thu night then to the E Fri. Lo pres expected to develop over the lower MS Valley Thu...then tracks NE through the ern OH Valley Fri...pushing a cold front to the E coast by late Fri. Deep layered SSW flow results in bringing sharp increase in moisture NE from the SE states beginning Thu afternoon/evening (PoPs to 60-80% here Thu night)...then spreading toward the NE CONUS Fri. Another period of moderate/heavy RA possible...esp Thu night/early Fri...then the trailing upper level trough crossing the region late Fri/Fri night may bring additional SCT pcpn. Lows Tue night in the m-u20s inland to the l30s along the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Highs Wed in the m-u40s N to the l50s S. Lows Wed night in the 30s...except l40s at the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Highs Thu in the l-m50s N to the u50s-around 60F S. Lows Thu night in the l-m40s W to the l50s in NE NC. Highs Fri in the 50s to around 60F. Highs Sat in the u40s-l50s. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 700 AM EST Sunday... Widespread LIFR/IFR conditions persist as of 12Z over the north with more variable conditions (MVFR to VFR) farther south. These conditions will more or less continue today as sfc low pressure moves off the MD coast. Low- level flow has become become SW and VSBYS are generally improved except across KSBY through ~15Z. An upper level trough will push across the region late this morning and aftn bringing another chc of showers mainly affecting RIC/SBY from 15-21Z. The wind will shift to the WNW later this aftn. Drier air with improving conditions arrive tonight into Monday and will then persist through Wednesday. Somewhat breezy W flow during the day Mon with gusts to ~20 kt possible. Low pressure approaches from the SW Thursday and will likely bring another round of flight restrictions beginning later Thursday. && .MARINE... As of 345 AM EST Sunday... Cancelled Marine Dense Fog Advisory for the nrn Chesapeake Bay, Rappahannock River, and nrn ocean zones as VSBYS have improved. Latest sfc analysis shows two low pressure centers: one near the MD/DE border and another over the mountains of WV. Upper level low pressure over east-central TN Sat aftn has moved into wrn NC early this morning. Winds have shifted to SW over the marine areas at 10- 15 knots, but seas remain elevated (6-8 ft north of Parramore Island/4-6 feet south). Winds increase out of the W then NW this evening through tonight as the aforementioned sfc low in WV moves offshore to the NE of the area. Near-term guidance/BUFKIT soundings indicate just enough CAA/925-975 mb winds on the back side of the low to allow for a period of SCA level winds across the bay/ocean. Therefore, went ahead and issued an SCA for all Chesapeake Bay zones from 18z today-09z Mon. Winds turn more westerly and decrease to 10-15 knots during the day on Mon. Winds then turn to the NW and increase to 20 kt over the bay/Currituck Sound, 25 kt over the ocean, and 15-18 kt over the lower rivers. This is due to an upper trough moving from SE Canada to New England, which will allow a shot of colder air to move into the Mid-Atlc from the NW. Model soundings show the potential for gusts to around/just above 30 knots Mon night-Tue, mainly over the nrn ocean zones (along w/ solid SCA conditions over much of the area). Winds finally diminish over the waters Tue aftn-Wed, as an area of high pressure moves into and over the area from the NW. Seas likely remain at least 5 ft through Tue over the nrn ocean zones, but may drop below 5 ft from late tonight-Mon S of Cape Charles. With new headlines for the bay today/tonight, opted not to extend/issue SCAs for the late Mon/Tue timeframe attm since it is still 36-48 hours out. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 345 AM Sunday... In general, additional QPF will be quite low today. Snow cover is now gone as well. Runoff now will be the issue into/through early in the upcoming week. Flood warnings have been cancelled at Palmyra but remain in effect for Bremo Bluff, Lawrenceville, Richmond- Westham and the Locks, and Farmville. Other sites will continue to be monitored. Please refer to the latest FLW/FLS products for site- specific details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ652-654-656- 658. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ650. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...AJZ/LKB MARINE...ERI/TMG HYDROLOGY...AKQ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KAKQ 160900 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 400 AM EST Sun Dec 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low pressure system will cross the area today and push off the coast by this evening. High pressure returns Monday through Wednesday, bringing dry conditions to the local area. The next area of low pressure approaches from the southwest Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 345 AM EST Sunday... Latest analysis indicates broad/weak sfc low pressure was centered across northern sections of the CWA, with an occluded boundary extending back to the west toward another weak low over the wrn slopes of the central Appalachians. Aloft, upper level low pressure can be seen spinning across western NC and will drift ENE today. With a Sw low level wind over much of the area now, VSBYS have improved for the most part (though some 1-2 SM VSBYS remain over central and northern zones). Skies are overcast but only spotty light rain is occurring over the N/NW. Temperatures remain fairly warm for Dec, ranging from the mid-upper 40s in the Piedmont to the mid 50s eastern shore. As the upper low moves ENE later today, PoPs will ramp back up to likely for central and nrn zones through midday/early afternoon...then shift off to the NE by later afternoon. Cooler...w/ highs occurring now over much of the area with temps likely falling a few degrees by aftn, in the m-u40s N and W to the m50s far SE. An area of SHRAS may linger across the E and NE (esp on the ern shore) this evening...as low pressure departs the region. Lows in the 30s most areas tonight, but precip will end before any P-type issues arise. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM EST Sunday... Models in good agreement that a welcome dry pattern will prevail both Mon/Tue. Sfc low pressure will be pushing off the New England coast Mon morning with sfc high pressure over the midwest. Cold air advection will be offset by downslope warming so highs will be mild on Mon, ranging from the mid 50s across the north to the lower 60s south under mainly sunny skies. Secondary cold front drops through the region Mon night and may lead to a few clouds across the eastern shore but skies will be mostly clear overall. Turning colder Mon night w/ lows in the u20s- around 30F W to the mid 30s along the coast in SE VA- NE NC. Sfc high settles over the region Tue/Tue night with clear and dry conditions to prevail. Cooler but seasonable Tue with highs mainly from 45-50 F (coolest NE and warmest SW). Clear with lows from the mid 20s to lower 30s Tue night. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 215 PM EST Saturday... High pres shifts offshore by Wed. Dry/seasonable wx is expected. Amplification of trough aloft now appears to be potentially stronger on latest mid range models through the MS/OH/TN Valleys Thu/Thu night then to the E Fri. Lo pres expected to develop over the lower MS Valley Thu...then tracks NE through the ern OH Valley Fri...pushing a cold front to the E coast by late Fri. Deep layered SSW flow results in bringing sharp increase in moisture NE from the SE states beginning Thu afternoon/evening (PoPs to 60-80% here Thu night)...then spreading toward the NE CONUS Fri. Another period of moderate/heavy RA possible...esp Thu night/early Fri...then the trailing upper level trough crossing the region late Fri/Fri night may bring additional SCT pcpn. Lows Tue night in the m-u20s inland to the l30s along the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Highs Wed in the m-u40s N to the l50s S. Lows Wed night in the 30s...except l40s at the coast in SE VA-NE NC. Highs Thu in the l-m50s N to the u50s-around 60F S. Lows Thu night in the l-m40s W to the l50s in NE NC. Highs Fri in the 50s to around 60F. Highs Sat in the u40s-l50s. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 130 AM EST Sunday... Widespread LIFR/IFR conditions in CIGS persist as of 06z, and will likely continue through 12Z and beyond at KRIC/KSBY, while potentially improving between 10-12Z at KPHF/KORF/KECG. Low pressure across the VA-MD Ern Shore will shift off the MD coast by 12z. Low- level flow has become become SW and VSBYS have improved quite a bit for most of the region but CIGS remain IFR/LIFR. An upper level trough will push across the region Sunday bringing another chc of showers mainly affecting RIC/SBY. The wind will generally become SW this morning, and then NW by mid-late aftn. Drier air with improving conditions arrive tonight into Monday and will then persist through Wednesday. Somewhat breezy W flow during the day Mon with gusts to ~20 kt possible. Low pressure approaches from the SW Thursday and will likely bring another round of flight restrictions beginning later Thursday. && .MARINE... As of 345 AM EST Sunday... Cancelled Marine Dense Fog Advisory for the nrn Chesapeake Bay, Rappahannock River, and nrn ocean zones as VSBYS have improved. Latest sfc analysis shows two low pressure centers: one near the MD/DE border and another over the mountains of WV. Upper level low pressure over east-central TN Sat aftn has moved into wrn NC early this morning. Winds have shifted to SW over the marine areas at 10- 15 knots, but seas remain elevated (6-8 ft north of Parramore Island/4-6 feet south). Winds increase out of the W then NW this evening through tonight as the aforementioned sfc low in WV moves offshore to the NE of the area. Near-term guidance/BUFKIT soundings indicate just enough CAA/925-975 mb winds on the back side of the low to allow for a period of SCA level winds across the bay/ocean. Therefore, went ahead and issued an SCA for all Chesapeake Bay zones from 21z Sun- 09z Mon. Winds turn more westerly and decrease to 10-15 knots during the day on Mon. Winds then turn to the NW and increase to 20 kt over the bay/Currituck Sound, 25 kt over the ocean, and 15-18 kt over the lower rivers. This is due to an upper trough moving from SE Canada to New England, which will allow a shot of colder air to move into the Mid-Atlc from the NW. Model soundings show the potential for gusts to around/just above 30 knots Mon night-Tue, mainly over the nrn ocean zones (along w/ solid SCA conditions over much of the area). Winds finally diminish over the waters Tue aftn-Wed, as an area of high pressure moves into and over the area from the NW. Seas likely remain at least 5 ft through Tue over the nrn ocean zones, but may drop below 5 ft from late tonight-Mon S of Cape Charles. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 345 AM Sunday... In general, additional QPF will be quite low tonight as RA continues to diminish. Snow cover is now gone as well. Runoff now will be the issue into/through early in the upcoming week. Flood warnings were issued earlier today for Palmyra...Bremo Bluff and Lawrenceville, and Richmond-Westham and the Locks have been added this evening. Other sites will continue to be monitored. Please refer to the latest FLW/FLS products for site-specific details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Monday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ652-654-656- 658. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ650. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...AJZ/LKB MARINE...ERI/TMG HYDROLOGY...AKQ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KGRR 120011 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 711 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018 - Light snow likely on Wednesday with some drizzle/freezing drizzle possible in the afternoon/evening - Brief mix possible Friday morning before turning over the rain - Quiet weather likely for the weekend and early next week && .DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018 There doesn't seem to be a big change in thinking regarding the system coming through the area on Wednesday. Light snow will spread through the area on Wednesday morning out ahead of the compact incoming low. Plenty of lift with this system, but moisture is limited with no moisture source being tapped for this system as the Gulf is cut off. This will keep accumulations light, generally an inch or less. Roads should not be a problem during the daylight hours with snow coming in after the morning commute, and temps around freezing. We could see the light snow turn over to some drizzle/freezing drizzle in the afternoon/evening before precipitation ends Wednesday evening. Forecast soundings show a decent potential of losing the saturated DGZ after the warm air advection moves through. Again temps will be a couple of degrees within freezing. There is some potential that this could somewhat impact the evening commute, especially once the sun goes down and pavement temps drop. We will monitor this for possible headlines. The next weather maker for the area will arrive early Friday morning. We will see moisture streaming north out ahead of the srn stream system moving by to our south. This moisture will be acted upon by the far srn periphery of a northern stream system floating by across the nrn Great Lakes. Most of the lower atmosphere will be above freezing, except maybe for the immediate sfc. We could see a brief window of freezing rain at the onset, but it would change over quickly as the cold sfc would warm enough. The core of the system to our south will stay south of the area. We should quiet down after the Friday system, and could remain dry through the end of the 7 day forecast period. This will be the result of general amplified upper ridging that will control the weather. The cold air will remain locked up across Canada, and moisture will remain locked up well south of the area. We do see a short wave trying to slip through on Monday. This should have little to no fanfare with no moisture expected to be nearby. We will see cooler temps come in for early next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 710 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018 Widespread MVFR cigs prevail this evening, but are expected to lift out of the area from south to north after midnight. Then a period of VFR is likely overnight through mid to late morning Wednesday before light snow moves in from the west. Once the snow arrives expect conditions to rapidly lower to MVFR and possibly IFR. A changeover to drizzle is likely after it snows for a few hours, with IFR probably becoming more widespread after 18Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018 We will be issuing another Small Craft Advisory for the nearshore area valid from later tonight through most of the daylight hours of Wednesday. Gradient increases quite a bit with the incoming compact low. Waves will be limited a bit, as the flow is offshore in nature from the SE. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018 No hydrology concerns are expected over the next week. We will see some runoff from residual snowmelt that will occur with temps going above freezing, but this will be slow and gradual with not a lot of runoff expected. We will see some rainfall with the system on Friday, however these amounts look like they should remain below half an inch for all of the area. These factors may cause slight rises on the area rivers, but nothing that should cause impacts. Dry weather will likely then persist for the weekend and early next week. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 5 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>849. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NJJ DISCUSSION...NJJ AVIATION...Meade HYDROLOGY...NJJ MARINE...NJJ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KILN 282328 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 628 PM EST Wed Nov 28 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak disturbance will push through the Great Lakes later tonight and Thursday bringing a chance of light wintry mix, changing to rain during the day on Thursday. A potent low pressure system will move into the mid Mississippi Valley Friday night and Saturday, as a warm front develops over the Ohio Valley and moves north. This will open the door to much warmer air and the likelihood rain heading into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Stratocumulus has been slow to erode today and has actually filled in to some degree with afternoon sunshine and subtle warming. This complicates near-term cloud trends and thus will emphasize a slower clearing trend into the evening. Model soundings are pretty bullish in suggesting that as warm advection develops and low level flow backs to the south, that the stratocumulus will break up but be readily topped by thickening mid/high clouds downstream of weak shortwave currently over IA/NE moving east on developing fast/zonal flow. With low level flow backing into a warm advection profile, temperatures tonight will be slow to fall, and may in fact plateau early in the evening before starting a slow rise late in the night. Offsetting this potential will be surface dewpoints only in the teens, which may allow for brief/quick drops in temperatures where clouds thin or any brief periods of clearing appear. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/... Spent a great deal of time today on Thursday morning/afternoon portion of the forecast, with at least a low probability of some impacts via light freezing rain or wintry mix. As parade of weak shortwave energy on zonal flow aloft crosses the Ohio Valley, and low level flow begins to increase on the backside of departing high pressure, isentropic ascent will increase in multiple layers of the troposphere with the potential for areas of precipitation breaking out. The first area will be from Indiana/Michigan into northern/central Ohio early on Thursday morning into the early afternoon as the 290-300k isentropic layer activates with modest vertical motion owing to higher- based warm advection and weak shortwave energy. There would be high probabilities of ice nuclei in this higher based cloud ceiling, thus would think this has a higher chance of producing a laterally-moving band of very light snow or flurries across the northern sections of the forecast area, especially into the Columbus area late morning into the afternoon, and points west earlier in the morning. A more concerning area of precipitation is possible or even likely to develop at some point via lower level /280-285k/ isentropic ascent owing to warm advection and an increasing low level moisture transport signal out of the mid-south. There is some disagreement in the 28.12Z model suite with timing and degree of saturation in this area of forcing, and this is key to timing and potential impacts of any light wintry mix. The 28.12Z NMM- based model data /NAMNest - HIRES-W-NMM - NAM12km/ are the most aggressive and bullish on low level saturation beginning about 9 AM in southeast KY/northern KY...spreading northeast through the late morning into the afternoon. If these models verified, a 1-3 hour period of light freezing rain would be in the cards for most areas west of I-71 from mid-late morning into early Thursday afternoon with trace-few hundredths of an inch of glaze potential. The vast majority of other model cores...including the ECMWF/GFS/ARW-based WRF cores/CMC and most importantly the HRRR-ensemble are slower to saturate the low levels and thus QPF is very sporadic/light, and most importantly delayed into a warmer part of the day and across the far south where main roads will likely have warmed enough to mitigate any impact from light freezing rain /if surface temperatures are still below freezing rain - which is another timing-based issue/. In the end, considering the amalgam of model data including all ensembles and trends, just did not have the confidence /70-80%/ to issue an advisory on the current model signal. That being said - it's a nonzero threat for a low impact brief freezing rain event especially across southeast Indiana, far western Ohio, and western portions of northern Kentucky from mid-morning to about noon on Thursday. Given even a worst-case scenario, precipitation into the area after the morning commute for the most part is another reason to hold on an Advisory issuance today, and instead message potential impacts via AFD/HWO/Social Media feeds. Due to influx of thickening lower clouds and what will likely be developing areas of light rain, have kept temperatures on the cold side of guidance given a great deal of moistening over the very dry boundary layer will initially occur that will absorb some measure of heating. To that end, also have a little cautious eye on far northern CWA that they even get above freezing and that potential of freezing rain won't linger through the afternoon up there given low level trajectories will have some component of easterly flow. On Thursday night, as vertical motion/warm advection develop in the vicinity of a developing warm front across Kentucky, light rain /or perhaps drizzle/ will become more widespread especially along and south of the Ohio River. Temperatures are not apt to fall more than a degree or two as warm advection strengthens and the warm front moves north into the forecast area. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Weak surface wave to track east through the Ohio Valley early Friday, as surface high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. Pcpn will come to an end early with a temporary dry period for most of the area during the aftn into the early evening. Temperatures look to be a little above normal with highs Friday from the mid 40s north to the mid 50s south. Mid and upper level flow amplifies with deep upper and surface low developing over the Central Plains. Flow backs over the Ohio Valley with 55-60KT southerly low level jet providing favorable low level convergence. Will bring pops back in Friday night and ramp up to categorical by Saturday morning. On warm side of the system expect near steady or slowly rising temperatures Friday night. Marginal instby axis looks to set up to our west, so will limit mention of thunder to slight chance Saturday in the west. Warm temperatures Saturday with highs from the mid 50s north to the lower 60s south. The mid level low opens up and translates northeast through the Great Lakes late Saturday into Sunday. Widespread pcpn will diminish overnight Saturday into early Sunday. Warm conditions to continue with Sundays highs from the lower 50s northwest to the lower 60s southeast. Surface trof dropping south through the region may result in a few showers Monday. Temperatures will turn a little cooler with highs Monday from near 40 northwest to the upper 40s southeast. Model solutions diverge on tack of mid level and surface low early next week. Expect pcpn to redevelop Monday night into Tuesday. Expect a wintery mix changing to mainly rain during the day Tuesday and then back to snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday. At this time confidence in timing and exact pcpn type is low due to model solution spread. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Persistent low level moisture will keep ceilings MVFR probably for few more hours this evening. Hard to judge when these ceilings will dissipate but high pressure and drier should build in enough to allow this process to occur. Later tonight through early Thursday, unsettled weather returns with a weak wave of low pressure. We may see a light wintry mix near airports, while ceilings lower again as the boundary layer moistens. Could see IFR at CVG toward the end of their 30 hour TAF. Winds not to much of an issue with speeds under 10 knots while direction backs to southeast. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Thursday night into Saturday. Localized IFR ceiling possible especially Friday night into Saturday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Binau NEAR TERM...Binau SHORT TERM...Binau LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Coniglio  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KBRO 271045 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 445 AM CST Tue Nov 27 2018 ...Another pleasantly cool day before weather begins transitioning back to the warm side to close November... .SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday): The 500mb trough across the eastern United States today will continue to provide subsidence across the CWA as west to northwest flow aloft prevails across south Texas. A 500mb low/shortwave trough across Baja California tonight will allow low to mid level moisture to increase across central Mexico tonight into Wednesday. Some of this moisture will reach the Rio Grande valley Wed afternoon as the surface ridge across south Texas today moves eastward Wednesday allowing an onshore flow to return tonight into Wednesday. Rain chances will remain south and southwest of deep south Texas Wednesday. Below normal temperatures today will return to near normal tonight and continue to be near normal through Wednesday. .LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): The weather quickly transitions from comfortable autumn and a clean airmass to warmer and somewhat more humid to close the week and dominate the weekend into early next week. The end of November warm-up won't be enough to dent a notably below average month, the first such month since January and notable for the departures from normal which will settle in around 3 to 4 degrees below the 1981-2010 averages. Before the above to much above average air arrives...the Valley and northeastern Mexico will see a rapidly dampening 500 mb short wave move through. The vigorous closed wave arrives on the northwest Mexican coast east of the southern Gulf of California Wednesday evening, then moves quickly through northern Mexico overnight and early Thursday before shearing out across the Valley and western Gulf later Thursday and Thursday night. The system will induce sufficient lift for scattered showers favoring the Lower Valley and especially the Lower Texas Gulf waters, with much lesser chances of measurable rainfall along/west of US 281/IH 69C. The best chances are Wednesday night into Thursday morning before activity energizes nicely later Thursday and Thursday night over the warmer waters beyond 20 nm out and peaking over the Gulf out toward the shelf. Zonal flow takes over Friday through Saturday with Deep South Texas and the RGV on the warm side of the carved-out atmospheric "bowl" that will produce unsettled late autumn weather traversing the eastern Rockies and central Plains. A developing 500 mb trough across the central Rockies Sunday will slide into the central Plains Monday, with southwest flow aloft increasing warmth in the column and bringing temperatures potentially threatening 90 to inland locations of the Rio Grande Valley each day. The next decent front should follow Monday night and Tuesday...but details are uncertain now and will defer to future forecasts for expected outcomes. For the sensible weather...made only a few tweaks to rain chances and timing Wednesday night and Thursday but the main change was to push up low temperatures several degrees given modest southerly flow and plenty of cloud cover for most areas, with the only 50s possible across the Zapata/Jim Hogg ranchlands where skies may be partly cloudy and winds light. The light winds and higher dewpoints will support some fog development. Fog thickness is uncertain this far out so only went with patchy for now. Temperatures will pop over 80 for most areas (except the immediate coast) Thursday as skies become partly to mostly sunny from west to east. The only exception may be the southeastern Cameron County coast where pesky clouds and a few showers are likely to hang on through the day. Any rain shifts into the Gulf overnight Thursday, and with just enough southerly flow expect fog to be kept to a minimum as temperatures and dewpoints climb. Would not be surprised to see some areas hold at or just above 70 by Friday morning, but with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies (perhaps some low overcast toward daybreak) only raised a few degrees into the 60s for all areas...also in line with guidance consensus. Friday through Sunday could see afternoon temperatures approach 90 in a few spots depending on sunshine and how much dry/downsloping air slides off the Sierra Madre above the surface. Model guidance may be struggling to handle the late summer-like atmospheric profile and keeping forecast high temperatures a bit too low. Blends are lower still, so disregarded and forecast is closest to the warmer GFS MOS each day. A weak wind shift line briefly turns winds to the north Saturday afternoon (which may enhance the downslope component) before southeast flow quickly returns overnight and continues through early Monday. With the Saturday "front" in name only and the return flow right behind in just six to twelve hours, Sunday and Monday minimum temperatures were raised significantly...with most areas remaining well in the 60s (cooler across the ranchlands where drier air will make brief appearances Saturday and Sunday afternoons) through daybreak both Sunday and Monday. Bottom line? Keep those warm weather clothes close by. December comes in like a lamb. && .MARINE (Today through Wednesday): Seas were near 5 feet with north winds near 12 knots at buoy020 early this morning. Light northeast winds will prevail across the coastal waters today with surface high pressure across south Texas this afternoon. Winds will veer to the southeast tonight as the surface ridge moves eastward. The pressure gradient will increase across the lower Texas coast Wednesday as low pressure develops across the Texas panhandle and the surface ridge across the eastern Gulf of Mexico allows winds to veer to the south and increase. Moderate south to southeast winds will prevail across the western Gulf Wednesday. Wednesday night through Saturday night: Southerly flow will pick up especially beyond 20 nautical miles where the marine layer is marginal (sea surface temperatures in the mid to upper 70s) and there may be a window through Friday night where caution conditions for winds (15 to 20 knots) and seas (building back to 6 feet) develops. For Wednesday night, showers are likely over the offshore leg and have raised chances to account. Did not include thunder with this forecast but instability over the warmer water toward the shelf along with decent forcing could make this reality...and will let later shifts evaluate. Precipitation will exit stage right steadily on Thursday with fair weather the rest of the way. Closer to shore, analyzed SST between 66 and 70 will set up enough of a marine layer to keep winds below caution levels through Friday and seas in the moderate range, with perhaps a window of caution (15 to 20 knots) Friday night ahead of the wind shift that only sneaks into the waters mainly north of Mansfield on Saturday. The slightly lighter winds Saturday and Saturday night will improve waves/seas in all waters but probably not until Sunday for improved boating/fishing for most. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 55 75 67 / 0 0 10 50 BROWNSVILLE 71 56 75 66 / 0 0 10 50 HARLINGEN 70 52 75 65 / 0 0 10 30 MCALLEN 69 55 73 63 / 0 0 10 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 68 51 74 60 / 0 0 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 58 75 68 / 0 0 10 50 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 61/52  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KPQR 151051 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 250 AM PST Thu Nov 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS...Today will be mostly dry and cloudy with northwest flow. A weak disturbance moving near the area may produce light rain for sw Washington tonight and Friday. Dry weather expected Friday night through early next week as strong high pressure returns to the area. East winds will develop Friday night and result in mostly sunny but cool weather this weekend. Rain is possible mid next week. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday...Low clouds and patchy fog are filling in along the coast and the interior valleys early this morning. A building upper level ridge will keep rain well north of the area today, but a shortwave upper level trough riding over the ridge may bring periods of light rain to extreme sw Washington tonight through Friday afternoon. The upper ridge strengthens Friday evening and N-NE winds develop. Mixing at the lower levels will be poor, especially on Friday and the stagnant air may compromise the air quality. East winds increase Saturday morning as models forecast the Dalles to Troutdale surface pressure gradient of 7 to 9 mb by 8 AM.These winds will dominate through Sunday limiting fog and low clouds at night, and supporting dry weather with mostly sunny skies and cool breezes. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph are possible for the east Portland metro area and 65 to 75 mph gusts at Crown point. The east winds should help improve air quality near the Cascade gaps and the Columbia River Gorge, but poor air quality is likely in areas protected from the east winds. ~TJ .LONG TERM...No Changes. Previous discussion follows...Sunday night through Wednesday. The strong upper level ridge over the eastern Pacific shifts inland over the Pacific Northwest. East winds will likely persist through the Columbia River Gorge for the start of next week, but elsewhere winds will remain rather light which could lead to stagnant conditions under the developing inversion. This pattern will remain in place through at least early Tuesday until the next front arrives, but forecast models diverge more significantly by midweek. In particular, the deterministic ECMWF is about 24 hours faster with the next frontal system, bringing it into the region early Tuesday. Trended the forecast towards the NBM, which better reflects the timing in the GFS and ensemble mean solutions. This brings the highest (likely category) PoPs into the region early Wednesday. Cullen && .AVIATION...Varied flight conditions across the area with MVFR to LIFR west of the coast range while interior locations have predominantly MVFR cigs/vis. There are spots of IFR developing and satellite IFR probably showing about 60 to 80 percent chance at interior TAF sites. Various MOS guidance also indicating IFR cigs/vis through around 18Z so will allow for that in the next TAF package. Should see improvement for the afternoon with MVFR to VFR conditions. Later tonight into Friday will probably see areas of IFR returning for the interior. Coastal areas may have enough offshore wind to remain VFR. PDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR prevailing with mist and cigs around 1500-2500 ft in the area. There is still a decent chance (roughly 60 percent) that cigs/vsbys may lower into the IFR category through 18Z or so. MVFR should continue into the afternoon and probably return tonight. /mh && .MARINE...A ridge of high pressure will lay over the waters into Friday, then high pressure will strengthen inland for increasing N-NE flow through the weekend. Some localized gusts 25-30 kt will be possible in the offshore flow over the weekend, mainly below gaps in the coastal terrain. /mh Seas around 10 ft will spread across the waters this morning and is expected to subside below 10 ft this evening. The incoming west swell is likely to lead to Rough Columbia River Bar conditions during the ebbs today and tonight. && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 PM PST this evening for Coastal Waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory for Rough Columbia River Bar from 8 AM this morning to 1 PM PST this afternoon. Small Craft Advisory for Rough Columbia River Bar from 5 PM this afternoon to midnight PST tonight. && $$ Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland This discussion is for Northwest Oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nautical miles offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KBOX 132056 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA Issued by National Weather Service New York NY 356 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure along the northern New England coast moves rapidly northeast as high pressure builds in tonight. High pressure builds over the northeast Wednesday and remains into Thursday. The high drifts north during Thursday as the next low pressure system approaches from the south late in the day. A wintry mix will be possible with this storm Thursday night into Friday. A weak system may bring scattered snow showers Sunday night into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Rain has ended across most of the area, with some light rain lingering across Cape Cod. This rain will be ending quickly as low pressure along the northern New England coast continues to rapidly move to the northeast. Split flow was developing as the southern stream upper low was closing off and becoming cut off from the flow. The northern stream upper trough will slowly light into eastern Canada through tonight. Meanwhile surface high pressure was building into the area from the west. Clearing will be slow with cyclonic mid and upper level flow through tonight. Mixing in the cold advection will allow for gusty winds through tonight, possibly up to 30 kt at times. No additional flooding occurred this afternoon. Flood warnings continue for the Sudbury River At Saxonville affecting Middlesex County, and the Pawtuxet River At Cranston affecting Kent and Providence Counties. Updated the flood warning with an FLS for the new stages. No other streams are expected to flood at this time. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Some of the coldest air of the season will be moving into the region Wednesday and Wednesday night as arctic air flows into the region behind the upper trough. With the upper trough axis to the northeast and with increasing subsidence the area is expected to remain nearly cloud free Wednesday and Wednesday night. Cold advection will continue Wednesday and will be weakening after 15Z. Thus mixing will become more limited. Winds and gusts are expected to remain below advisory levels. Even if mixed to the top of the layer winds will be briefly near advisory levels Wednesday morning. With the center of the high nearly overhead winds will decouple and become light, allowing for good radiational cooling. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Highlights... * Low pressure late Thu into Fri with rain/snow/sleet possible * Another weak system may bring snow showers Sun night/Mon Details... Thursday and Friday... As the high crosses northern New England Thursday, winds shift around to E-SE during the day. Clouds will push in from S-N during the day, and will steadily lower and thicken especially across S coastal areas. With the souther periphery of the high in place, will be tough to get the leading edge of moisture working into the region until Thu night. Might see some some light rain push into the S coast toward sunset. Cold air remains in place, with temps only reaching the 30s, except the lower 40s along the S coast. The H5 cutoff low slowly moves E-NE across the mid Atlc states Thu night but, as the high to the NE slowly moving to the Maritimes, increasing easterly flow will help feed in moisture which should allow precip to spread across the region. Big question will be PTYPEs as the onset of the precip. Have a mixed bag of precip moving in even along the coast to start, but should change over to rain with a slow temp rise with the onshore flow off the milder waters. Timing of the changeover, and exact amounts of snow/sleet are still up in the air. Temps inland may fall back to the 20s Thu evening, especially across the higher inland terrain, but should start to rise after midnight as E winds increase. Temps should rise above freezing across most areas during Fri, but again questions whether the cold air will scour out of the interior valleys and the higher terrain. Something to monitor closely. Strong low level jet moving toward S coastal areas, Cape Cod and the islands after midnight Thu night through Fri. Could see E-SE wind gusts up to 35-40 kt, highest across the islands Friday morning, possibly to midday. May need wind headlines for a time there. Expect the surface low to cross close to or across Cape Cod or S coastal Mass around midday Friday, then should exit rather quickly across the Gulf of Maine. However, precip may linger through the day, though should start tapering off late Fri afternoon across western areas. Friday night through Monday... Any leftover precip across central and eastern areas should end Fri evening. Otherwise, a nearly zonal fast flow aloft will bring quickly improving conditions across the region. Lows Fri night will run close to seasonal normals, in the upper 20s and 30s, except 35-40 along the coast. Winds shift to W-NW with gusts up to 25-30 kt across Cape Cod and the islands early, but should diminish. Will see somewhat milder temps as compared to the previous few days on Saturday, but will still run around 5 degrees below normal. Another short wave approaches from the W, but should be mainly dry as it moves across the region late Sat or Sat night. However, this should bring another shot of colder air across the region by Sunday with highs only in the 30s well inland to 40-45 along the coastal plain. Another short wave may work E Sun night into Mon as a mid level trough starts to dig across the Great Lakes. With temps falling back to the 20s to around 30 Sunday night, may see snow showers move across with this weak, fast moving system. May see leftover snow showers early Mon, then conditions should improve, though it will remain cold. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Wednesday Night/... Through Today...Moderate confidence. Mainly IFR CIGS and MVFR-LIFR VSBYS across most areas. Surface low pressure passes across Cape Cod this afternoon, then moves into the Gulf of Maine this evening. Winds become northeasterly by mid to late afternoon as the low moves northeast of the terminals. Wind speeds along the coast will be sustained around 20 kt with gusts 25-35 kt. Some higher gusts will be possible closer to Cape Cod/Vineyard where peak gusts could reach 40 kt. LLWS with winds 50-60 kt at 2Kft over SE Mass and Cape/Islands. Further inland, not expecting any wind gusts. Tonight...Moderate confidence. VFR with dry weather. Gusty northwest winds with speeds 20-25 kt. Wednesday...High confidence. VFR. Gusty northwest winds. Gusts 25 to 35 kt, with some occasional gusts to 40 kt possible. KBOS Terminal... Rain continues through about 19-20z, then comes to an end. improvement to VFR expected around 23z, however timing may be off by an hour or two. KBDL Terminal...Rain continues through about 19-20z, then comes to an end. improvement to VFR expected around 23z, however timing may be off by an hour or two. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Wednesday Night: VFR. Breezy. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. PL and/or RA likely, chance SN. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. RA likely, FZRA likely. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt. Saturday: VFR. Breezy. && .MARINE... Gale force gusts will continue across most of the forecast waters through Wednesday, especially the outer waters by Wednesday afternoon. So, extended the gale warning through 23Z Wednesday. A small craft continues for Naragansetts Bay. Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/... Wednesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain. Thursday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain. Friday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Chance of rain. Friday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ232>235-237-256. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 2 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ230. Gale Warning until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ231-250-251-254- 255. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ236. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KAPX 100452 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1152 PM EST Fri Nov 9 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 939 PM EST Fri Nov 9 2018 1006mb low continues to rapidly deepen, just west of the Bruce Peninsula. The low will move northward another hour or two, then take a right turn and lift toward Quebec. A bent-back front extends back across eastern upper MI and toward the Keweenaw. Back edge of the widespread, synoptic snow is progressing ne-ward toward CVX-GLR-OSC. This will continue to push northward for a few more hours, before stalling just shy of the Straits, where the bent-back front is hanging out. That front, and the last (weakening) vestige of synoptic snow, will then kick southward back into and across northern lower MI after 3am. Overall, though, synoptic-scale forcing is past peak. Meanwhile, lake effect snow showers have quickly developed over nw lower MI, behind the synoptic snow. Not expected much in the accums with this activity initially. However, that will change (briefly) toward morning when the bent-back front comes south and we switch back to lake enhancement. Best snow amounts overnight will be near and north of a PLN-APN line, with 1-3" of additional accums, perhaps 2-4" in southeast Chippewa Co. Isolated locales of nw lower MI will be around an inch. Windier conditions have been returning to the region this evening, especially south of the bent-back front. That contributes to some low-end blowing/drifting snow concerns, limited by the relatively small amount of snow on the ground. && .NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight) Issued at 400 PM EST Fri Nov 9 2018 ...Heavier snow through tonight transitioning to lake effect... High Impact Weather Potential: A period of heavier snowfall and cooling temperatures will lead to travel issues tonight. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Afternoon composite analysis reveals our digging short-wave impulse/closing mid level trough becoming negatively tilted and digging across Wisconsin with resulting upper diffluence evident over upper Michigan per water vapor imagery. Main upper jet streak dynamics around the base of the trough have moved off to the eastern lakes region. However, surface cyclogenesis continues ahead of the wave across Lake Erie with inverted trough axis stretching up through northern lower Michigan into central upper Michigan. Have had a noticeable uptick in precip rates across the CWA in the last hour or two right along and ahead of the surface trough axis and possibly aided by trowal feature beginning to nose up through Lake Huron into northern Michigan. But, temperatures at or above freezing have and continue to hamper SLRs and accumulating snow. Primary Forecast Concerns: Snowfall and headlines tonight. Strong short-wave impulse continues to slide through lower Michigan tonight as attending surface low lifts up across Lake Huron and into Canada by Saturday morning. Nicely defined theta-e axis/trowal feature still expected to wrap up through lower Michigan into the tip of the mitt/straits/eastern U.P. this evening before pivoting back down through lower Michigan later tonight. Combined with strong low level convergence with the trough should focus heavier precip up through NE lower Michigan and into the tip of the mitt/straits for this evening before the trough eventually swings back down through northern lower Michigan overnight. And with cooling temperatures, I still think some decent snow accumulations are likely tonight particularly along and north of M-32 into the straits and parts of eastern upper Michigan. Further south, noticeable dry slot and back edge to the precip will pivot into the southern half of the CWA this evening, and will give a bit of a lull for several hours. But there will be another burst of snowfall with the trough sliding back through northern lower Michigan late tonight, followed by lake effect snow showers taking shape into NW lower Michigan toward morning. Plan is to keep all headlines intact as is for now with highest storm total accumulations still focused through the tip of the mitt and eastern upper Michigan. Considered trimming the south of M-72/east of I-75 counties a little early. But with the recent uptick in snowfall/lowered visibilities and temps eventually falling back below freezing, I'll let it ride through 00Z as planned. && .SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Monday) Issued at 400 PM EST Fri Nov 9 2018 High Impact Weather Potential: Various chances for accumulating snow through Monday. Diminishing gale force winds on the Great Lakes Saturday. Pattern Synopsis: Well-defined trough axis aloft is expected to be situated to our east by early Saturday morning with broad cyclonic flow on the backside of today/tonight's departing system. Low-mid level cold air advection will be the rule through mid-afternoon Saturday before winds gradually back more southwesterly and weak warm air advection takes over ahead of a weakly developing area of low pressure across the northern plains. This system is expected to trek across northern Lake Superior into southern Canada late this weekend into the start of next week dragging a weak cold front across northern Michigan on Monday. Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: PoPs/snow amounts through the forecast period. Weak cold air advection is expected to continue across northern Michigan Saturday morning as cold air filters in on the back side of today's departing system...evident by H8 temps progged to fall to roughly -11 C by 12z/Saturday. Plenty of over-lake instability with delta Ts pushing 20 C and lingering wrap around moisture should yield continued lake effect snow showers across parts of northern Michigan. Predominantly NNW flow Saturday morning should focus the more numerous snow showers across the GTV Bay region and perhaps clipping portions of western Chip/Mack, although lighter/less frequent snow showers still expected elsewhere across northwest lower and eastern upper. Gusty NNW winds 20-30 mph Saturday morning may lead to some restricted visibility in spots due to blowing snow and expected small flake size in falling snow. Winds gradually diminish and back more westerly Saturday afternoon and eventually west-southwesterly Saturday night, all coinciding with weak warm air advection attendant to low pressure developing across the northern plains and sprawling high pressure sliding through the Ohio Valley, bringing much drier air briefly into the region. As a result, lake effect precip is expected to diminish throughout the day while gradually transitioning to the more typical westerly flow locales. Additional accumulation through Saturday generally on the order of an inch or less west of I-75... highest west of US-131 near Grand Traverse Bay to MBL. Increasing deep layer moisture across the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday tied to strengthening warm air advection is expected to lead to developing light isentropically driven snow showers across the northern half of the forecast area with southwest flow lake enhancement across parts of Mack/Chip counties. This area of eastern upper likely to be the center of greatest impact during much of the day Sunday with potentially heavy snow falling in the steadiest lake effect bands as forecast soundings suggest sufficient moisture through the column, virtually no inversion and omega pegged directly in a 5kft deep DGZ. Expecting several inches of new snow, primarily west of I-75 from the bridge to the Sault and perhaps another winter wx headline being hoisted once our ongoing advisories expire. Low-level winds gradually veer more westerly Sunday night and eventually west-northwesterly during the day Monday, reorienting the focus for scattered lake effect snow shower activity across parts of northwest lower and northern Chippewa County...perhaps briefly synoptically supported/enhanced by a cold front expected to cross from northwest to southeast across northern Michigan Monday morning. In terms of accumulation during this time frame, perhaps an inch or two where the most persistent snow showers fall; otherwise, not a whole lot of impact outside of that. Temperatures fairly steady Saturday through Monday with high temps in the upper 20s to low 30s and lows ranging from the teens in the coolest spots to the low-mid 20s elsewhere. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 400 PM EST Fri Nov 9 2018 High Impact Weather Potential: Occasional accumulating snow chances through the middle of next week. Initial focus revolves around an area of low pressure sliding from the southeastern states through the Mid-Atlantic Monday night - Tuesday, which latest trends continue suggest should keep much of the potentially widespread impactful weather to the south and east of northern Michigan. However, this will draw in more cold air across the western Great Lakes leading to continued west/northwest flow lake effect across portions of northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan through the middle of next week...perhaps synoptically enhanced at various times from several perturbations trekking through the larger parent troughing overhead. High temperatures through the period averaging 10-15 degrees below mid- November normals, which range roughly from 43 F at ANJ/GLR to 45 at APN and 47 at TVC. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1152 PM EST Fri Nov 9 2018 Snow continues tonight APN/PLN, some snow showers TVC/MBL. Windy. Low pressure over Georgian Bay will accelerate ne, away from MI. Leftover snow will linger at APN/PLN, waning toward morning, with IFR conditions. Lake effect snow showers elsewhere will produce variable conditions, with MVFR probably being most common. Gusty nw winds developing, windiest at MBL. && .MARINE... Issued at 400 PM EST Fri Nov 9 2018 Gusty WNW-NW winds develop tonight and persist through Saturday with gale force wind gusts a good bet for all nearshore areas. Winds diminish through the day Saturday into Saturday night with another lull anticipated. Some gustiness is again anticipated for Sunday although winds and waves may remain just below headline criteria. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Saturday for MIZ008- 015>027-031-032. LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY until noon EST Saturday for MIZ026-031. LH...GALE WARNING until 11 AM EST Saturday for LHZ345. GALE WARNING until 10 PM EST Saturday for LHZ348-349. GALE WARNING from 3 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for LHZ347. LM...GALE WARNING until 11 AM EST Saturday for LMZ341. GALE WARNING until 10 AM EST Saturday for LMZ323-342-344>346. LS...GALE WARNING until 11 AM EST Saturday for LSZ321-322. && $$ UPDATE...JZ NEAR TERM...BA SHORT TERM...MG LONG TERM...MG AVIATION...JZ MARINE...BA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDLH 091128 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 528 AM CST Fri Nov 9 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 446 AM CST Fri Nov 9 2018 Main concern in the short term is significant lake effect snow along portions of the South Shore of Lake Superior. A trough will dig from the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest today. This will develop a broad low over the Central Great Lakes. A surface trough will extend from the surface low into western Lake Superior, which will bring widespread snow to the Northland. Expect heavier snowfall along the South Shore mid to late Friday morning through the afternoon as flow aloft becomes north northwesterly and northerly. The 850 hPa to lake surface temperature differences will be between 15 to 20 degrees. GFS and NAM forecast soundings show a few hundred J/kg of CAPE at IWD. This setup will bring strong lake enhancement, particularly in Ashland, Bayfield and Iron counties. Increased precipitation chances and amounts in comparison to the previous forecast toward high resolution guidance. Anticipating snow rates to pick up as the day progresses with the 1 to 2 inches of snow per hour Friday afternoon. Travel will be difficult due to gusty winds and intense snowfall rates. The rest of the region will see light snow showers. Highs today will be in the 20s. Snowfall will gradually taper off from west to east tonight and early on Saturday as high pressure builds in from the west. Light lake effect snow will linger across north central Minnesota into the evening from Lake of the Woods. When it is all said and done snowfall totals will generally be light across much of the region (around an inch or less). The exception will be across the tip of the Arrowhead where 1 to 3 inches is expected and in Price county where 3 to 5 inches is expected. Amounts along the South Shore will be significant where in Bayfield totals will range from 3 to 5 inches. Northern Iron and Ashland county along Highway 77 will see amounts between 6 to 15 inches. The lower elevations of Ashland county, including the city of Ashland, will see values range from 3 to 5 inches. Lowered temperatures tonight as skies clear with high pressure building in and -10 to -15 degree Celsius 850 hPa air advecting in. This setup should allow for strong radiational cooling. Lows range from near 0 to the low teens. The next trough will dig into the Northern Plains Saturday afternoon. This will bring increasing cloud cover and spread light snow into north central Minnesota. Winds will be light on Saturday with highs ranging from the upper teens to the mid 20s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 446 AM CST Fri Nov 9 2018 A mid level wave crosses Saturday night into Sunday morning and will generate lift with a cold air mass in place, so bumped up PoPs compared to model guidance - especially since dendritic growth zone is situated directly aloft in a saturated parcel with respect to ice. After this weak low crosses, the return nw flow will bring lake effect snow to the south shore through at least Tuesday. This is the only appreciable weather maker in the long term. Temperatures continue to be well below normal. The coldest air arrives Tuesday morning. Later in the week temperatures warm above freezing. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 525 AM CST Fri Nov 9 2018 A complicated day ahead with snow showers rotating around a low situated over Lake Superior. This will bring IFR visibilities frequently to sites, but only for portions of each hour. A lot of lake enhanced snowfall - even on the smaller lakes will further muddle the forecast. High chance of IFR probably more than eluded to in the TAFs. Gusty winds will pick up later today. Conditions will improve late in the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 23 8 21 18 / 60 0 10 40 INL 20 5 21 15 / 40 10 10 40 BRD 22 6 22 17 / 20 20 50 80 HYR 24 9 24 18 / 90 40 10 40 ASX 26 14 25 16 / 90 60 10 30 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for WIZ002- 009. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Saturday for WIZ003-004. MN...None. LS...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM CST Saturday for LSZ121-141-142-146. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 2 PM CST this afternoon for LSZ147-148. Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ147-148. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 2 AM CST Saturday for LSZ143>145. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for LSZ140. Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM CST this evening for LSZ140. && $$ SHORT TERM...WL LONG TERM...Wolfe AVIATION...Wolfe  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDMX 031049 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 549 AM CDT Sat Nov 3 2018 ...Updated for Near Term Weather Trends and 12z Aviation Discussion... .UPDATE... Issued at 549 AM CDT Sat Nov 3 2018 Issued a Dense Fog Advisory about an hour ago for area of fog that formed before the clouds moved in from the west. Initial thinking was that there may be pockets of dense fog ahead of the arriving clouds with visibilities improving as the clouds arrived. However, as the clouds arrived, the fog persisted. Places such as Webster City, Boone, and Ames have been under the clouds for over an hour with 1/2 to 1/4 mile visibility common at those sites. GOES-16 Nighttime Microphysics RGB only offers glimpses of the fog when there is clearing. However, the satellite + model fused Fog and Low Stratus MVFR/IFR/LIFR probabilities shows the area quite well with the probabilities of MVFR conditions expanding in coverage and increasing in probability. High resolution guidance such as the RAP and WRF-NMM were/are handling this area of dense fog the best. CONSShort has come around as well, though earlier runs of this model blend favored low ceilings so downplayed the fog initially. In any regard, visibilities should improve within the next few hours. && .DISCUSSION.../Today through Friday/ Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Nov 3 2018 Overview of the next 7 days has an action packed weather pattern with several low pressure systems passing from the central Plains and generally southeast of Iowa into the Great Lakes. This will bring repeated rounds of precipitation through the state. The highest impacts at this point are expected on Tuesday with gusty northwest winds and by the end of next week with colder air. GOES-16 clean IR shows broad area of clouds from Saskatchewan into Kansas with upper low dropping into eastern Montana and western North Dakota early this morning. These clouds are moving eastward with roughly the western 2/3rds of the state mostly cloudy. Beneath these clouds, some pockets of fog have formed with visibilities under a mile in a few places. Strong low and mid-level Q-vector convergence ahead of this low along with low level theta-e advection will bring a prolonged period of rain showers today. Regional radar already shows a wide area of rain moving into eastern Nebraska. This rain should reach our western forecast area shortly after daybreak and spread eastward and northeastward with many places across central Iowa having showers toward midday today. Adjusted high temperatures down a few degrees from previous forecast with the cloud cover and rain providing for a chilly, dreary day. The rain will continue through the afternoon and overnight as low pressure lifts into southeast Iowa by 12z Sunday. Rain may mix with snow over northwest Iowa early Sunday morning, but not expecting accumulations. The rain will come to an end from southwest to northeast as large scale subsidence moves into the state on Sunday. There will be a 12 to 18 hour break in the rain before the next shortwave trough moves into the region. Currently, this shortwave is over the Gulf of Alaska, but will move into the Pacific Northwest before it digs into the central Plains. This will bring mainly rain into central Iowa Monday morning as Q-vector convergence increase, but best Q-vector convergence and theta-e advection will be south of the state so highest rain amounts look to be that direction. The rain may mix with snow perhaps over northern Iowa in the morning, but again not expecting any impacts at this point. Surface low pressure associated with this shortwave will rapidly deepen as it moves from the Ozarks Monday night into the Great Lakes on Tuesday evening. This will create a tight pressure gradient across the state with winds at the top of the mixed layer of 35 to 40 knots. Bumped winds up from early Tuesday morning through 00z Wednesday and may very well end up needing a Wind Advisory on Tuesday. As the low pressure moves into the Great Lakes, rain will end across the state. At this point, Wednesday is looking like an overall quiet day ahead of the next weather system. It is also the day with the best chance for some sunshine across parts of central Iowa over the next 7 days. However, any sunshine will be short-lived as the next trough moves into the region Wednesday evening. The 00z GFS has precipitation over the southern 2/3rds of Iowa later Wednesday night, which is a northward shift compared to its last several runs. Not to be outdone, the 00z ECMWF has also shifted northward compared to its 12z run; however, not as much as the GFS. Needless to say, this now brings precipitation in the form of snow late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning before transitioning to rain as the low levels warm. However, a rain/snow mix may continue over northern Iowa. The precipitation will transition to snow before ending Thursday night or Friday morning. On the heels of this precipitation will be some very cold air with 1000 to 500mb thickness of around 505dm and 850mb temperatures in the low to middle teens below zero on Friday. CIPS analogs have a strong signal for below normal temperatures with temperatures averaging 5 degrees below normal. Highs were nudged downward similar to previous shift with highs in the 30s, which is 20 degrees below normal in many places. && .AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning/ Issued at 549 AM CDT Sat Nov 3 2018 Low ceilings and visibilities will be a concern through this TAF period. Pockets of dense fog and low ceilings have developed and expanded with MCW and FOD reporting IFR ceilings. Both DSM and OTM may be impacted, but have only included in at OTM as TEMPO group at this time. Otherwise, rain will spread in today with MVFR restrictions common and near borderline IFR by this afternoon in most places. Conditions will fall into IFR overnight as the rain persists through 12z Sunday. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for IAZ048>050- 061-062-074-075-084>086-095>097. && $$ UPDATE...Ansorge DISCUSSION...Ansorge AVIATION...Ansorge  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KPHI 010801 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 401 AM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will stall just to the north and west of our region by later today. Low pressure will track along this front up the Ohio Valley later today, then across central New York State tonight into Friday. The cold front will then work its way across our area Friday night into early Saturday as another low tracks along it. High pressure builds in Saturday night and Sunday before shifting to near the Canadian Maritimes by Monday morning. As low pressure tracks well to our west early next week, an associated cold front moves through on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 03z objective model analyses indicate a strong west-southwesterly oriented 250-mb jet streak across the Great Lakes into southeast Canada with a deep large-scale trough and attendant vort max in the south-central U.S. and downstream ridge amplification in progress across the East Coast and western Atlantic. At the surface, a low in the Mid-South was lifting northeastward with a southwest-to- northeast baroclinic zone stretching into Pennsylvania and New York. Decaying showers exist near the baroclinic zone but have generally dissipated before reaching the far northwestern CWA. This will likely continue today, though cannot completely rule out a shower or two in the Poconos. Moreover, with a weak perturbation moving through New York/Pennsylvania this morning, expecting a lull in precipitation in NY/PA downstream of the main trough and surface low by late morning into the afternoon in the wake of the predecessor perturbation, so have the highest PoPs in the northwest CWA early this morning trending slowly downward this afternoon. No mentionable PoPs are in place southeast of the Fall Line today. The main story today will be temperatures, which are expected to be well above seasonal averages. The trend in yesterday's guidance was slightly downward, whereas today's guidance is noticeably higher. Based on observed temperatures yesterday, strongly suspect the warmer trend is the correct one, and I went slightly above consensus for max temperatures today, which ends up being about a 50% mix of continuity and MAV MOS (the most consistent of the statistical guidance regarding temperatures today). Skies should be partly to mostly sunny in most of the area today, except perhaps somewhat cloudier in the northwest. Southwest winds may pick up somewhat this afternoon (gusts of 20 mph or so) as diurnal mixing maximizes. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... The surface low in the Mid-South early this morning is expected to be in the eastern Ohio Valley this evening. This will lift the stalled front just to our northwest into New York and New England tonight. Meanwhile, a strong perturbation will approach the northern Mid-Atlantic during the overnight hours, and this should initiate showers in the warm sector. High-resolution models are rather chaotic with coverage of the precipitation, but most of it looks to be fairly light/scattered southeast of the Fall Line. In the Poconos and Lehigh Valley, the closer proximity to the vort max suggests stronger and more widespread lift will be available, so precipitation amounts are expected to be higher here. Using the NAM Nest as a guide, the precipitation may come in two phases. The first would occur between 00z and 06z, in association with a meridionally-oriented vort max downstream of the stronger perturbation to the west. Coverage will be highest to the north and more scattered (or even rather sparse) farther south. The second occurs in the wake of the predecessor vort max, in a region of strong differential cyclonic vorticity advection downstream of the primary vort max to the west. Along with the WRF-ARW/NMM, the precipitation associated with this second wave may be somewhat more organized/locally heavy. Environmental profiles show meager instability at best through the night...so meager, that I think thunder chances are too low for inclusion through the period. However, I should note that elevated instability will be increasing late, and if the timing speeds up in later forecasts, thunder chances would probably be required. There are indications that the showers could have decent precipitation cores. Though this threat is highest northwest of the area, this will be something to watch closely with subsequent model runs. Given the strength of the low-level wind profiles and a decently mixed boundary layer for an early November night in the Northeast, cannot rule out a rogue strong wind gust or two should this second wave of strongly-forced showers materialize. Winds will be fairly elevated overnight, perhaps even gusting at times to around 20-25 mph or so (especially near the coast and in the southern CWA). Temperatures will be quite warm, with lows likely above 60 south of Interstate 78. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Summary...Unsettled with warmth Friday and Friday night; Drying and cooler for the weekend (gusty winds on Saturday); Some warming with showers at times next week. Synoptic Overview...A highly amplified upper-level trough is forecast to shift eastward from the Mississippi Valley to Ohio Valley Friday, then across the Northeast Saturday as it takes on a negative tilt. The flow is progressive therefore it turns more zonal Saturday night into Sunday, however the next trough amplifies from the Midwest and Mississippi Valley but it may shear out as it lifts northeastward Monday into Tuesday. A more substantial trough is forecast to start shifting eastward Wednesday, sweeping a cold front off the East Coast. The main time frame to focus rain is Friday into Saturday, then again mostly Tuesday into Wednesday. For Friday and Saturday...Unsettled into at least the morning hours of Saturday as a sharp upper-level trough takes on a negative tilt as it lifts across the Northeast. An initial surface low will track into New England Friday, however its associated cold front will shift eastward and cross our region during Friday into Friday night. As strong energy lifts northeastward from the Tennessee Valley Friday evening, a new surface low is forecast to develop along the front and track northward. This in combination with increasing large scale ascent will result in an expansion of rain from south to north Friday night. There is some potential for a forced low-topped convective line ahead or near the leading edge of the negative tilt trough, however instability looks to be on the low side. This could be tied to low-topped convection weakening as it arrives from the west Friday morning, then some some additional development in the afternoon and evening with the front. As of now, the risk for severe thunderstorms looks rather low given marginal instability forecast. Locally heavy rain will occur with surface dew points into the 60s ahead of the cold front, and especially if some embedded convective elements move over the same area. However, any flooding issues should be of the typical poor drainage type especially if fallen leaves clog storm drains. It may end up being more showery during the day Friday, and southerly flow ahead of the front will result in another mild day. The extent of the showers and cloud cover will have an impact on temperatures. The entire system is forecast to be lifting to our northeast during the first half of Saturday, resulting in improving conditions. However, there looks to be a period of time Saturday when rather gusty winds occur. This is due to cold air advection and pressure rises as the negative tilt upper-level trough pivots across our area and then to our northeast. The pressure gradient also tightens and with deeper mixing developing during the day, north-northwest winds will be gusty. The forecast soundings generally show about 30 knots (35 mph) of wind mixing down to the surface across much of the area, however the winds should diminish quite a bit late in the day and in the evening as mixing starts to wane and high pressure begins to build in. It will be much cooler Saturday given cold air advection and especially factoring in a gusty wind. For Sunday and Monday...As the flow aloft is more southwesterly Sunday, surface high pressure builds across our area however it quickly shifts into New England and then near the Canadian Maritimes by Monday morning. This will result in less wind Sunday, however the surface flow then becomes more onshore. As the next upper-level trough amplifies into the Ohio Valley Monday, a coastal front may try and work its way northward toward Delmarva. It is less certain if some showers are able to develop with this feature as the low- level flow turns more from the southeast, therefore kept it dry regarding this for now. Clouds are expected to be on the increase though Monday as warm air advection is underway in advance of low pressure moving into the Great Lakes. Showers may be delayed until late in the day Monday and at night and for mainly our western zones. Some areas Monday afternoon should experience temperatures edging into the 60s. For Tuesday and Wednesday...The amplification of an upper-level trough arriving from the west will play a significant role in the timing of a couple of cold fronts. The first cold front may be tied to an initial upper-level through that tends to shear out to the northeast into Tuesday, then a secondary cold front arrives by later Wednesday. There is the potential for a decent amount of moisture to accompany the cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday and therefore PoPs are kept on the higher side. The warmer flow ahead of the cold front should allow for temperatures to rise into the 60s for much of the area on both afternoon's. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR with SCT-OVC CIGs well above 10 kft. Winds becoming south to southwest around 10 kts with some potential for a few higher gusts to 20 kts. High confidence. Tonight...Lowering CIGs, gradually becoming MVFR from west to east after 03z. Increasing chances for showers, especially north of the Mason-Dixon Line. Winds generally southerly around 10 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts possible, especially near the coast. Southwesterly LLWS is probable at RDG/ABE and possible at the Philly terminals. Moderate confidence. OUTLOOK... Friday...MVFR/IFR conditions for much of the time, especially at night as some showers transition into periods of rain. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in the afternoon and at night. Southwest winds 10-15 knots, becoming west then northwest and diminishing some late in the day and especially at night. Saturday...MVFR/IFR probable especially in the morning with some showers, then conditions improve to VFR. North-northwest winds 15-20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots, becoming west-northwest and diminishing to near 10 knots late in the day and especially at night. Sunday...VFR. Light and variable winds, becoming east to southeast around 5 knots. Monday...VFR, however MVFR and some shower possible by later in the day. East winds around 10 knots. && .MARINE... Winds are really struggling to mix on the waters this morning. The only observation that is close on or near Delaware Bay is Brandywine Shoal Light, and even this station has been solidly sub-advisory. Decided to change the advisory for Delaware Bay by canceling it through this morning and making it effective starting at noon. For the Atlantic waters, seas are near/above 5 feet at this time, so the advisory was not changed here. Nevertheless, winds will struggle to reach criteria through the morning hours as well but should trend upward this afternoon, generally from a south to southwest direction. Tonight, some of the more aggressive (hi-res) guidance suggests a potential for gale-force gusts, but I am doubtful. Low-level thermal profiles are not favorable for mixing. Although the sustained speeds should be above advisory criteria, gusts will be hard to come by. A chance of showers exists overnight with some potential for localized stronger gusts and higher waves. OUTLOOK... Friday...The Small Craft Advisory was extended through Noon on Delaware Bay as winds should diminish in the afternoon, and it was extended for the Atlantic coastal waters through 6 PM as gusty winds and elevated seas will remain longer. Winds may drop below advisory criteria everywhere at night, however seas should remain elevated on the ocean waters. Some showers Friday become periods of rain at night with a few thunderstorms possible. Saturday...Small Craft Advisory conditions look probable as a northwesterly wind increases with gusts to about 30 knots. A period of low-end gale force gusts are possible, however this is of lower confidence. The winds and seas subside at night. Showers end through the morning hours. Sunday...The conditions should be below Small Craft Advisory conditions. Monday...Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions may develop by late Monday especially on the Atlantic coastal waters. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to noon EDT Friday for ANZ430-431. && $$ Synopsis...Gorse Near Term...CMS Short Term...CMS Long Term...Gorse Aviation...CMS/Gorse Marine...CMS/Gorse  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KMOB 311006 CCA AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 458 AM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018 .NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday night/...Increasing moisture from the low level southerly flow over the region and subsidence from the ridge aloft has caused some fog development overnight. Overall coverage is patchy but should be more widespread over our Alabama counties generally west of the Tombigbee River and Southeast Mississippi. The fog depth is expected to remain fairly shallow, so should burn off within a couple hours of sunrise. As the southern portion of a deepening upper level trough over the southwestern states digs southeastward, the upper level ridge axis is shifting east of the region which will allow upper level cloud cover to gradually advect into the area. At the surface, a cold front extending southwestward from the Great Lakes into Texas will strengthen and propagate eastward. As a result, the gradient tightens and the southerly wind flow and moisture over the area increases. A high risk of dangerous rip currents is expected to persist along area beaches through Friday and a rough surf should be expected to develop by Wednesday night. Tonight showers and thunderstorms will develop out ahead of the aforementioned cold front that is projected to move from Texas into the western edge of Mississippi toward the end of the period. Most of the convection is expected to be along a squall line to our west at this time but bands of showers and perhaps a few isolated severe thunderstorms could develop out ahead over our SE Mississippi Counties. /08 .SHORT TERM /Thursday Through Friday night/...Models continue to advertise a rapidly deepening and potent shortwave trough to our west that will eject eastward and push a cold front through the area tomorrow. Data analysis and satellite trends support this evolution. Since the system is still developing, the biggest uncertainty has been the timing of the squall line. The GFS continues to offer the fastest solution while other models are slower. Will lean more with the ECMWF this forecast cycle as it appears to have had a better handle in projecting the evolution of the upstream shortwave trough on previous model runs and had projected more deepening resulting in a slower eastward progression. Thus will stay the course with the expectation that the primary risk for severe thunderstorms will occur along the squall line impacting Southeast Mississippi around 10 AM and moving across our Western Florida and South Central Alabama Counties by 6 PM. There still remains the possibility that a few isolated severe storms could develop out ahead of the squall line and these supercell thunderstorms will pose a higher risk for large hail and tornado development. Otherwise, the greatest risk will be for damaging wind gusts associated with the squall line and perhaps a brief tornado or two. Rainfall along this band is expected to be intense with amounts totaling 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible which could lead to flooding along poor drainage areas. The actual front is expected to push through the region from west to east Thursday afternoon through evening time frame. A northwesterly wind flow will follow in the fronts wake bringing cooler temperatures and drier conditions. /08 .LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...In the dry, post cold frontal airmass, temperatures will trend cooler than seasonal norms through Saturday night. By Sunday, surface high pressure shifts east along the Eastern Seaboard allowing for the development of a moist southeasterly return flow and warmer temperatures. Sunday night through Tuesday, guidance begins to diverge in handling a series of shortwaves digging into an upper trough over the Northern and Central Plains. The ECMWF is advertising a series of weaker shortwaves spread out more temporally. With the waves also maintaining a track generally north of our area. Our area will be under a more moderate southerly flow off the Gulf during this time, which would create wetter and warmer conditions into mid week. The GFS, on the other hand, digs a sharper upper trough further south over the central states. This trough is projected to become negatively tilted before pushing a strong front quickly across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. This solution would produce a possible chance of severe weather Have went between the two solutions for the forecast, tightening the more spread out ECMWF's solution, but not quite the quick passage, and potentially severe weather forecast by the GFS. Both models are advertising temps above seasonal through the period, until the front moves over and south of the area. However, frontal passage is not projected until after this forecast period. /16 && .MARINE...Onshore flow will strengthen into tonight ahead of a front expected to cross area waters late Thursday into Thursday night. Offshore flow follows, with moderate to strong flow maintained into Saturday. A small craft advisory will be issued with this package, lasting into Friday. Surface high pressure moves east over the area Saturday through Sunday, bringing a return of onshore flow Monday. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 83 71 76 55 65 45 71 49 / 10 50 90 30 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 81 73 78 60 68 49 71 55 / 10 20 90 50 10 0 0 0 Destin 81 73 78 64 69 51 73 57 / 10 20 90 60 40 0 0 0 Evergreen 84 68 76 57 64 43 70 46 / 10 20 90 40 10 0 0 0 Waynesboro 83 68 73 51 61 42 68 46 / 10 80 90 20 10 0 0 0 Camden 83 68 75 54 61 43 68 45 / 10 60 90 30 10 0 0 0 Crestview 85 67 79 61 68 43 72 48 / 0 20 90 60 30 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday morning for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday morning for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KMOB 310958 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 458 AM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018 .NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday night/...Increasing low level moisture from the low level southerly flow over the region and subsidence from the ridge aloft has caused some fog development overnight. Overall coverage is patchy but should be more widespread over our Alabama counties generally west of the Tombigbee River and Southeast Mississippi. The fog depth is expected to remain fairly shallow, so should burn of within a couple hours of sunrise. As the southern portion of deepening upper level trough over the southwestern states digs southeastward, the upper level ridge axis is shifting east of the region which will allow upper level cloud cover to gradually advect into the area. At the surface, a cold front extending southwestward from the Great Lakes into Texas will strenghten and propagate eastward. As a result, the gradient tightens and the southerly wind flow and moisture over the area increases. A high risk of dangerous rip currents is expected to persist along area beaches through Friday and a rough surf should be expected to develop by Wednesday night. Tonight showers and thunderstorms will develop out ahead of the aforementioned cold front that is projected to move from Texas into the western edge of Mississippi toward the end of the period. Most of the convection is expected to be along a squall line to our west at this time but bands of showers and perhaps a few isolated severe thunderstorms could develop out ahead over our SE Mississippi Counties. /08 .SHORT TERM /Thursday Through Friday night/...Models continue to advertise a rapidly deepening and potent shortwave trough to our west that will eject eastward and push a cold front through the area tomorrow. Data analysis and satellite trends support this evolution. Since the system is still developing, the biggest uncertainty has been the timing of the squall line. The GFS continues to offer the fastest solution while other models are slower. Will lean more with the ECMWF this forecast cycle as it appears to have had a better handle in projecting the evolution of the upstream shortwave trough on previous model runs and had projected more deepening resulting in a slower eastward progression. Thus will stay the course with the expectation that the primary risk for severe thunderstorms will occur along the squall line impacting Southeast Mississippi around 10 AM and moving across our Western Florida and South Central Alabama Counties by 6 PM. There still remains the possibility that a few isolated severe storms could develop out ahead of the squall line and these supercell thunderstorms will pose a higher risk for large hail and tornado development. Otherwise, the greatest risk will be for damaging wind gusts associated with the squall line and perhaps a brief tornado or two. Rainfall along this band is expected to be intense with amounts totaling 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts possible which could lead to flooding along poor drainage areas. The actual front is expected to push through the region from west to east Thursday afternoon through evening time frame. A northwesterly wind flow will follow in the fronts wake bringing cooler temperatures and drier conditions. /08 .LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...In the dry, post cold frontal airmass, temperatures will trend cooler than seasonal norms through Saturday night. By Sunday, surface high pressure shifts east along the Eastern Seaboard allowing for the development of a moist southeasterly return flow and warmer temperatures. Sunday night through Tuesday, guidance begins to diverge in handling a series of shortwaves digging into an upper trough over the Northern and Central Plains. The ECMWF is advertising a series of weaker shortwaves spread out more temporally. With the waves also maintaining a track generally north of our area. Our area will be under a more moderate southerly flow off the Gulf during this time, which would create wetter and warmer conditions into mid week. The GFS, on the other hand, digs a sharper upper trough further south over the central states. This trough is projected to become negatively tilted before pushing a strong front quickly across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. This solution would produce a possible chance of severe weather Have went between the two solutions for the forecast, tightening the more spread out ECMWF's solution, but not quite the quick passage, and potentially severe weather forecast by the GFS. Both models are advertising temps above seasonal through the period, until the front moves over and south of the area. However, frontal passage is not projected until after this forecast period. /16 && .MARINE...Onshore flow will strengthen into tonight ahead of a front expected to cross area waters late Thursday into Thursday night. Offshore flow follows, with moderate to strong flow maintained into Saturday. A small craft advisory will be issued with this package, lasting into Friday. Surface high pressure moves east over the area Saturday through Sunday, bringing a return of onshore flow Monday. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 83 71 76 55 65 45 71 49 / 10 50 90 30 10 0 0 0 Pensacola 81 73 78 60 68 49 71 55 / 10 20 90 50 10 0 0 0 Destin 81 73 78 64 69 51 73 57 / 10 20 90 60 40 0 0 0 Evergreen 84 68 76 57 64 43 70 46 / 10 20 90 40 10 0 0 0 Waynesboro 83 68 73 51 61 42 68 46 / 10 80 90 20 10 0 0 0 Camden 83 68 75 54 61 43 68 45 / 10 60 90 30 10 0 0 0 Crestview 85 67 79 61 68 43 72 48 / 0 20 90 60 30 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday morning for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday morning for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KLIX 310458 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1158 PM CDT Tue Oct 30 2018 .AVIATION... Starting to see early onset of radiational fog formation that should continue to spread over the region overnight. Marine layer advection likely to limit fog depth to MVFR levels with low level jet maintaining some boundary layer mixing to preclude dense fog formation. After 14Z, cloud bases will likely vary between periods of MVFR to mid-level VFR as air mass continues to destabilize in the pre-frontal environment. Timing of organized convection appears to be near the end of the valid TAF period at KBTR, and after 01/06Z for the remainder of locations. The internationally extended KMSY TAF will indicate prevailing strong convection in the 01/10-12Z period. 24/RR && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 65 81 67 73 / 0 20 90 90 BTR 67 82 69 73 / 0 20 90 90 ASD 67 83 70 76 / 0 20 80 100 MSY 69 83 71 76 / 0 20 90 100 GPT 68 80 71 76 / 0 10 70 90 PQL 66 83 74 78 / 0 10 50 90 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ 24/RR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KRAH 150601 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 200 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cool high pressure centered off the mid-Atlantic coast will extend into the area tonight as a weak warm from lifts north. A cold front will approach the region from the northwest and push through the area late Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1055 PM Sunday... Latest surface analysis shows surface high pressure centered off the mid-Atlantic coast with weak ridging into VA and northern NC. A weak warm front was noted across southern NC into northern SC. The evening proximity ROABs indicate a moistening air mass with the precipitable water value at GSO now 1.3 and 1.5 at KMHX. A fairly fast southwesterly to westerly flow aloft is noted at the mid and upper levels. The radar this evening has been more active than expected with a couple areas of very light rain skirting across the western and northern Piedmont. These areas of rain were associated with some disturbances in the fast flow aloft. In addition, some shallow isentropic lift across the Foothills will expand and shift northeast and easterly across the western Piedmont and northern Piedmont supporting a chance of rain. Skies range from cloudy across the western Piedmont to mostly clear across the Coastal Plain where some stratus and fog is apt develop overnight. Overnight lows will range in the mid 50s across the northwest Piedmont to around 60 in the southeast. -Blaes && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM Sunday... A cold front will approach the region Monday and cross central NC Monday night. Right now it appears that this front will move across mostly dry, lacking substantial moisture transport ahead of it. Nevertheless, will still carry slight chance PoPs to address any isolated showers that occur with its passage. Overall, look for partly cloudy skies and much warmer than today with central NC in the warm sector. Highs on Monday from the upper 70s NW to mid 80s SE. Lows Monday night in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 315 PM Sunday... A sub-tropical ridge is expected to be off the coast of Florida Tuesday with a long wave trough over eastern Canada. At the same time Tuesday an upper level low rotating over the southwestern United States will begin to get hung up underneath mid-level ridging. This block will help to allow for multiple cold air intrusions from Canada through the long term. For Tuesday itself, a cold front looks to stall near central North Carolina with a potential CAD situation developing. The latest run of the GFS actually shows a bit of isentropic upglide Tuesday morning with a slow breakout of ceilings for the triad during the day. The CMC, NAM, and ECMWF actually show the north winds and upglide continuing through Tuesday. As of now this appears a bit bullish considering the lack of a strong surface high pressure to the north and east. If the CAD does setup, temperatures will need to be lowered. The other consideration here is the chance for precipitation. Along the stalled boundary, both the GFS and ECMWF show multiple rounds of weak PVA. With the front sagging further south now, think the chance of thunder is minimal. Wednesday morning, a more potent round of PV will cross the area with a surface low forecast to form along the boundary. The CMC, ECMWF, and GFS all have the low forming, but the ECMWF and CMC have a better QPF footprint thanks to the tighter surface convergence. Wednesday afternoon another upper level disturbance will push southeast out of Canada driving the stalled front completely off the east coast. Along the front the chance of precipitation looks likely, as the saturated theta-e gradient is tight and PWATs are forecast to be 1.7" - 1.9". Behind this front much cooler air will filter in with PWATs plummeting towards 0.35" (as seen on the ECMWF and GFS). During the day Thursday, the upper level trough axis will pull east as surface high pressure moves overhead. 850 mb temperatures also fall to around 7 degrees C (tighter gradient on the ECMWF). This will support highs only in the lower to mid 60s. Friday into Saturday the high pressure will pull east with a warm front pulling north Saturday afternoon. The warmer temperatures Saturday will be short lived though as another rex block sets up over the Pacific Northwest which will allow for a potent upper level low to dive southeast out of Canada. The low will amplify the upper level trough axis allowing for a 1035 mb surface high pressure to dive southeast out of Canada. This cold front will cross the zones late Saturday into early Sunday. Behind the front much colder air will filter south. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 200 AM Monday... 24 Hour TAF period: Area of light rain/sprinkles and associated brief period of MVFR VSBY restrictions moving across the northern half of the forecast area will exit east in the next couple of hours. Wedge of weak high pressure over the area will give way to a warm front lifting north through the area late tonight/around daybreak. Continued moist upglide/isentropic lift is expected to yield lowering ceilings overnight, with short term models focusing on the western half of the forecast area for the lowest ceilings with IFR probable and some LIFR possible mainly after 9Z through 15z or so on Monday morning. For eastern TAF sites, there is some potential for patchy MVFR ceilings to develop as low level moisture increases ahead of the warm front. Daytime heating will lift and scatter out any sub-VFR ceilings from south to north through the mid to late morning hours, possibly delayed at KINT and KGSO until the early afternoon. Long Term: Sub-VFR conditions are expected to develop Monday night into Tuesday morning as a cold front moves into the area from the north. The front potentially stalls out across the area Tuesday and Tuesday night, prolonging sub-VFR conditions before a likely return to VFR on Wednesday when front finally settles south of the area. A cold front approaching the area from the NW will bring the next chance of sub-VFR conditions in showers late Friday night and into Saturday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Blaes NEAR TERM...Blaes SHORT TERM...NP LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...CBL  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KRAH 150000 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cool high pressure will extend across central NC today. A warm front will lift north through the area tonight ahead of a cold front that will approach the region from the northwest. This boundary will push through the area late Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 250 PM Sunday... Regional radar shows that the light shower activity from earlier today is quickly exiting to our east, in response to the causative short wave shear axis shifting eastward and offshore (as seen on current wv imagery). In it's wake, the CAD pattern that's been in place will persist the rest of this afternoon, until the parent high that's offshore the mid atlantic coast shifts farther east. After that happens this evening, low level flow will turn more toward the south with a slow increase low level dwpts. This increasing moisture will result in a period of low clouds and perhaps some fog to develop late tonight/Monday morning. Lows tonight a couple deg warmer than last night...55-60. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 PM Sunday... A cold front will approach the region Monday and cross central NC Monday night. Right now it appears that this front will move across mostly dry, lacking substantial moisture transport ahead of it. Nevertheless, will still carry slight chance PoPs to address any isolated showers that occur with its passage. Overall, look for partly cloudy skies and much warmer than today with central NC in the warm sector. Highs on Monday from the upper 70s NW to mid 80s SE. Lows Monday night in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 315 PM Sunday... A sub-tropical ridge is expected to be off the coast of Florida Tuesday with a long wave trough over eastern Canada. At the same time Tuesday an upper level low rotating over the southwestern United States will begin to get hung up underneath mid-level ridging. This block will help to allow for multiple cold air intrusions from Canada through the long term. For Tuesday itself, a cold front looks to stall near central North Carolina with a potential CAD situation developing. The latest run of the GFS actually shows a bit of isentropic upglide Tuesday morning with a slow breakout of ceilings for the triad during the day. The CMC, NAM, and ECMWF actually show the north winds and upglide continuing through Tuesday. As of now this appears a bit bullish considering the lack of a strong surface high pressure to the north and east. If the CAD does setup, temperatures will need to be lowered. The other consideration here is the chance for precipitation. Along the stalled boundary, both the GFS and ECMWF show multiple rounds of weak PVA. With the front sagging further south now, think the chance of thunder is minimal. Wednesday morning, a more potent round of PV will cross the area with a surface low forecast to form along the boundary. The CMC, ECMWF, and GFS all have the low forming, but the ECMWF and CMC have a better QPF footprint thanks to the tighter surface convergence. Wednesday afternoon another upper level disturbance will push southeast out of Canada driving the stalled front completely off the east coast. Along the front the chance of precipitation looks likely, as the saturated theta-e gradient is tight and PWATs are forecast to be 1.7" - 1.9". Behind this front much cooler air will filter in with PWATs plummeting towards 0.35" (as seen on the ECMWF and GFS). During the day Thursday, the upper level trough axis will pull east as surface high pressure moves overhead. 850 mb temperatures also fall to around 7 degrees C (tighter gradient on the ECMWF). This will support highs only in the lower to mid 60s. Friday into Saturday the high pressure will pull east with a warm front pulling north Saturday afternoon. The warmer temperatures Saturday will be short lived though as another rex block sets up over the Pacific Northwest which will allow for a potent upper level low to dive southeast out of Canada. The low will amplify the upper level trough axis allowing for a 1035 mb surface high pressure to dive southeast out of Canada. This cold front will cross the zones late Saturday into early Sunday. Behind the front much colder air will filter south. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 800 PM Sunday... 24 Hour TAF period: A few sprinkles around this evening but a lot of the precipitation showing up on radar is not making it to the surface at this time. With a good amount of cloud cover over the area, ceilings are expected to lower overnight with short term models focusing on the western half of the forecast area for the lowest ceilings with IFR probable and some LIFR possible mainly after 9Z through 15z or so on Monday morning. For the eastern sites flight categories may be controlled more by visibility than ceilings with 1-3 miles favored by short term models at least at KFAY and KRWI again in the favored hours before and just after sunrise. KRDU may be a bit in between the lowest ceilings and visibilities and so might see them take the longest before going to sub-VFR conditions. Long Term: Remaining in the warm sector for Tuesday night with a front close by brings a good chance of sub-VFR conditions Monday night into Tuesday morning. The front crosses the area and potentially stalls out bringing more possible sub-VFR conditions Tuesday and Tuesday night before a likely return to VFR for the end of the week before another front approaches for Saturday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NP NEAR TERM...NP SHORT TERM...NP LONG TERM...Haines AVIATION...Ellis  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 031215 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 415 AM AKDT Wed Oct 3 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...A few more days of beautiful fall weather to start October. Temperatures will be cooling slowly through the remainder of the week. The remnants of Typhoon Trami will bring bands of clouds and showers to the West Coast the remainder of the week. Arctic Coast will continue to be mostly clear for another day, but there is some stratus over in the Canadian Arctic that appears to be moving our direction on satellite imagery! Models...03/00Z solutions bring another day of very good agreement and excellent run to run continuity that we have seen for over a week. With cooling temperatures aloft, the model temperatures are doing a little better, but the short term forecast will still be challenging. Decaying remnants of Typhoon Trami, will continue to spin around through the weekend with occasional bands of showers moving up the coast and over St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait. Ridge over mainland Alaska will shift east a bit allowing clouds to push into the Western Interior, but the Central and Eastern Interior will continue to be partly cloudy to mostly clear through Thursday. No precipitation in the Central and Eastern Interior until a least early Monday morning, and possibly not until late next week. Aloft...at 500 hpa...Monster ridge remains over most of the state even with the center now 500 nm north of Nuiqsut this morning at 567 dam. The ridge axis extends southeast over Yakutat and 140W. A low that moved over the Western Bering Sea, remnants of Typhoon Trami, have moved near the Dateline in the Central Bering Sea at 508 dam. By Thursday morning the low will move near St matthew Island, and the ridge center over the Arctic will inch to the east with the ridge axis extending south over the AlCan Border. This will allow some lower heights to push east over the Central Interior spreading some higher clouds into the area. Shortwave will continue to spin around the low sending clouds and showers north over the West Coast and the southern portion of the Western Interior. The low will drift back west along 60N Thursday night to 300 nm west of St Matthew Island, and the ridge axis will drift west as well to lie over Deadhorse to Fort Yukon to Yakutat by Friday morning. A large Col will develop over the Central and Eastern Interior by Saturday morning as the ridge center drifts southeast over the Beaufort Sea at 562 dam, and the low over the Bering Sea continues to weaken to 524 dam. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm remains outside the states boundaries with warmer air over the state that will continue to cool to through the weekend. Expect some temperatures around 0C over the Eastern Brooks Range by Wednesday afternoon, and colder air around 0C will wrap around the low over the West Coast by Friday morning. Surface...Pretty straight forward with low pressure out west, and high pressure to the east. Ridge of high pressure remains over the Beaufort Sea and eastern half of the state with a 1025 mb center is 200 nm north of macKenzie Bay and ridging extending west to Wrangel Island. Broad area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Typhoon Trami over the Bering Sea with the 958 mb low 200 nm north of Amchitka this morning. By Thursday morning the low will be 100 nm south of St Matthew Island at 962 mb and swings around to 300 nm west of the island by Friday morning at 974 mb. Leeside troughing remains over the Arctic Plains and north of the Alaska Range. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Mostly clear conditions continue. The 03/1030Z GOES MVFR/IFR Probability guidance indicates a couple small patches of stratus offshore, but nothing threatening. East to southeast winds continue over the area with the strongest winds along the Eastern Arctic Coast gusting to around 45 mph. Some gusty gap winds in the Brooks Range out of the south to 25 mph. Temperatures with slowly trend cooler the next few days. Clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the teens in the cooler inland areas. West Coast and Western Interior...A few showers and mostly cloudy conditions south of the Bering Strait, and southeast of Galena. Increased clouds in the Western Interior as the low pushes east a bit and the ridge slides east as well. No significant rainfall is expected. North of Galena in the Upper Noatak and Kobuk region, and the Kotzebue Sound region will be Partly cloudy with mainly high clouds moving through. Strongest winds will be south of the Bering Strait with east to southeast winds 30 mph gusting to 55 mph, to the north east to southeast winds 15 to 30 mph, and inland east winds 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures slightly cooler today. Central and Eastern Interior...Some high clouds moving through the area mainly southwest of Fairbanks, otherwise mostly clear conditions will prevail. Highs will be in the 50s to lower 60s, while overnight lows will dip down around 20 in some locations with most areas in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Winds northeast to southeast 5 to 15 mph except south to 35 mph gap winds in the Alaska Range. && Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...The remnants of Typhoon Trami will continue to dissipate in the Bering sea with high pressure over Interior Alaska and the Northeast Arctic. Expect strong gusty east winds on most of the Arctic Coast and some gusty Gap winds in the Eastern Brooks Range. Bands of clouds and showers will continue to move north over the West Coast, mainly south of the Bering Strait. Temperatures across the forecast area will continue to slowly cool. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...The remnants of Typhoon Trami will continue to dissipate in the Bering sea with winds gradually diminishing. No significant coastal issues are expected at this time. && HYDROLOGY...Rivers continue to slowly fall and no significant precipitation is in the forecast through the weekend. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ235. Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB OCT 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 021116 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 316 AM AKDT Tue Oct 2 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...A few more days of beautiful fall weather to start the october. Temperatures will be cooling slowly through the remainder of the week. The remnants of Typhoon Trami is moving into the Central Bering Sea, and a decaying low near Nunivak will merge with it. Expect clouds and showers to continue to move north over the coast from the Bering Strait south. Strong gusty Gap winds winds in the Alaska and Brooks Ranges will diminish today. Arctic Coast will continue to be mostly clear for another day! Models...02/00Z solutions continue the trend of very good agreement and excellent run to run continuity that we have seen for at least a week now. The biggest challenge remains the temperature forecasts. Broad low pressure in the Central Bering Sea, the decaying remnants of Typhoon Trami, will continue to spin around through Friday with occasional bands of showers moving up the coast and over St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait. Ridge over mainland Alaska will shift east a bit allowing clouds to push into the Western Interior, but the Central and Eastern Interior will continue to be partly cloudy to mostly clear. No precipitation in the Central and Eastern Interior until early Monday morning. Aloft...at 500 hpa...Strong ridging remains over most of the state as center moves to 300 nm north of Point Barrow this morning at 573 dam. The ridge axis extends southeast over Yakutat and 140W. A low that moved north over False Pass yesterday is 150 nm south of Nunivak Island and will it will continue to weaken and merge with broad stacked 514 dam low that is over the Western Bering Sea late this morning. A 550 dam low will develop over Sand Point and move east and dissipate south of the Gulf of Alaska tonight. A wave moving around the low in the Bering Sea will swing around to lie from the low over Nunivak Island to King Salmon to Kodiak City by this afternoon, and by Wednesday morning is will lie over the Gulf of Anadyr and the Western Chukchi Sea. The low over the Central Bering Sea will move east to the Dateline by Thursday morning pushing lower heights over the Central Interior and a shortwave will swing around over the Lower Yukon Delta Thursday afternoon. As the low pushes east, the ridge axis will be pushed east over the AlCan Border Wednesday night and remains stationary through Thursday before slipping back to the west over the Central Interior and Central Arctic. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm remains outside the states boundaries. A dome of +10C temperatures, mainly west of Fairbanks, is moderating today with +10C temperatures hanging on over the Central Arctic Coast through the evening. The remainder of the area will see temperatures cool to around +5C by Wednesday morning. Surface...Ridge of high pressure remains over the Beaufort Sea and eastern half of the state. A 1026 mb center is 200 nm north of Demarcation Point with ridging extending west to Wrangel Island. The remnants of Typhoon Trami have moved into the Western Bering Sea and will wander around in the area through tonight, then move to 100 nm west of St Paul by Wednesday evening at 958 mb, then drifts north to 100 nm southwest of St Lawrence Island by Thursday afternoon. Leeside troughing remains over the Arctic Plains and north of the Alaska Range. The center in the Beaufort Sea will drift northwest Thursday over the northeast Arctic at 1027 mb. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Mostly clear conditions continue over the area. The 02/1030Z GOES MVFR/IFR Probability guidance indicates a couple small patches of stratus well offshore. East to southeast winds continue over the area with the strongest winds along the Eastern Arctic Coast gusting to around 40 mph. Some gusty gap winds in the Brooks Range out of the south to 25 mph will diminish this afternoon. Another day of unseasonably warm temperatures with good cooling overnight that will allow temperatures to fall into the teens in the cooler inland areas. West Coast and Western Interior...Some clouds along the southwest coast and in the Bering Strait with showers in the Lower Yukon Delta to the Bering Strait again today. No significant rainfall is expected. In most of the Western Interior and the Kotzebue Sound region partly cloudy conditions again today and tonight. Northeast to east winds 15 to 40 mph with the strongest winds in the Lower Yukon Delta, and along the coast from the Bering Strait south to include St Lawrence Island and Norton Sound. Temperatures slightly cooler today. Central and Eastern Interior...Some high clouds moving through the area mainly southwest of Fairbanks, otherwise mostly clear conditions will prevail. Highs will be in the 50s to lower 60s, while overnight lows will dip down around 20 in some locations with most areas in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Gap winds in the Alaska Range with gusts to 55 mph expected through this afternoon. && Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...Solutions continue to show the ridge over the area shifting a bit east. Expect a few more clouds moving over the area as the ridge shifts, but it will be dry in the Central and Eastern Interior, and over most of the Arctic. The remnants of Typhoon Trami will bring clouds and showers to areas west of Ruby through the weekend with most of the showers south of the Bering Strait. It looks like the first chance for snow in Fairbanks will be Sunday night/Monday morning, but do not expect anything to stick as it will turn to rain later Monday morning. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...The remnants of Typhoon Trami will be in the north Central Bering Sea with strong gusty winds in the northeast Bering Sea and Bering Strait. Expect only elevated surf during this time near the Bering Strait and St Lawrence Island. && HYDROLOGY...Rivers continue to slowly fall and no significant precipitation is in the forecast through the weekend. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210. Wind Advisory for AKZ226. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ235-PKZ240- PKZ245. && $$ SDB OCT 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 011133 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 333 AM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...Upper level ridge continues to dominate the weather pattern across Alaska. A few high clouds over the Interior, but another beautiful day is on tap. It will be a bit breezy in some areas. Strong Tanana Valley Jet winds setting up today will bring gusts near 60 mph to the Delta Junction area, and Gap winds will be developing in the Alaska Range with gusts to 55 mph expected through Tuesday afternoon. Expect some stronger winds in the hills around the interior to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. The Arctic remains relatively cloud free and that will continue through the day with strong east winds on the Eastern Arctic Coast. On the West Coast a weather front is moving northwest out of Bristol Bay and will bring increased clouds and some showers to the Lower Yukon Delta, Norton Sound, the southern Seward Peninsula, St Lawrence Island, and the Bering Strait by Tuesday morning. No significant rainfall is expected. Models...01/00Z solutions are in very good agreement through the weekend, and run to run continuity has been excellent over the past few days. The biggest challenge remains the temperature forecasts. Solutions keep a stacked low in the Central Bering Sea through Friday with occasional bands of showers moving up the coast and over St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait. Aloft...at 500 hpa...Strong ridging over the forecast area with a 578 dam center now over the Central Arctic Plains with the primary axis extending north over 155W, and south over Anchorage and the Gulf of Alaska. Low center south of the Aleutians has moved over False Pass at 536 dam and will continue north to Nunivak Island by Tuesday morning as it dissipates and merges with a 509 dam low that will move over the Western Bering Sea. The ridge will shift a bit east as the center moves to 300 nm north of Point Barrow at 569 dam and the axis extends southeast over Yakutat by Tuesday morning. A 549 dam low will develop just south of Kodiak Island Monday night and move south of the Gulf of Alaska and dissipate. Troughing will push over the southwest mainland and West Coast as the low in the Western Bering Sea moves to St Matthew Island by Thursday morning pushing the ridge axis east over the AlCan Border. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm lies outside the states boundaries. A dome of +10C temperatures, mainly west of Fairbanks, and extending north over the Northwest Arctic Coast will start cooling slowly beginning late today and will cool slowly through the remainder of the week. Surface...Ridge of high pressure extends from 700 nm north of Point Barrow over the Yukon Territory, and west over interior Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska. Trough of low pressure remains to the west with a 985 mb low in the Sea of Ohkotsk moving north into Siberia, a 990 mb low in the Central Bering Sea, and a 977 mb low 350 nm south of Dutch Harbor. Leeside troughing has developed over the Arctic Plains and north of the Alaska Range. A 1034 mb center in the Arctic will move southeast to MacKenzie Bay by early Monday morning and slide southeast along the Yukon and Northwest Territories border before moving over British Columbia early Tuesday morning. The low south of Nikolski will move near Cold Bay Monday morning at 991 mb, then continues north to Nunivak Island as it weakens and eventually dissipates early Tuesday morning. A 1033 mb high will remain over the Beaufort Sea with ridging extending west along 74N as it weakens to 1029 mb Monday night. A weak thermal trough will develop over the Upper Yukon Flats with a 1017 mb center near Ft Yukon Tuesday morning. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Mostly clear conditions continue over the area. Some stratus hanging off the coast, but it does not look like it is moving much and expect it to stay offshore for now. The 01/0900Z GOES MVFR/IFR Probability guidance indicates the stratus well offshore. East to southeast winds over most of the area with the strongest winds along the Eastern Arctic Coast gusting to around 35 mph. Some gusty gap winds in the Brooks Range have kicked up out of the south to 30 mph and will continue through most of the day. Daytime temperatures will be unseasonably warm with good cooling overnight that will allow temperatures to fall into the teens in the cooler inland areas. West Coast and Western Interior...Some clouds along the southwest coast and in the Bering Strait with showers in the Lower Yukon Delta today, spreading north to the Bering Strait tonight. No significant rainfall is expected. In the Western Interior and Kotzebue Sound region expect partly cloudy conditions today and tonight. Northeast to east winds 10 to 30 mph with the strongest winds in the Lower Yukon Delta, and along the coast from the Bering Strait south to include St Lawrence Island. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm during the day with highs in the upper 50s to around 60, but cooling sharply overnight with lows near freezing in the inland areas, and around 40 along the coast. Central and Eastern Interior...Some high clouds moving through the area, but mostly clear conditions will prevail. Highs will be in the 50s to lower 60s again today, while overnight lows will dip down around 20 in some locations with most areas in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Strong Tanana Valley Jet winds today will bring gusts near 60 mph to the Delta Junction area, and Gap winds will be developing in the Alaska Range with gusts to 55 mph expected through Tuesday afternoon. Also, expect some stronger winds in the hills around the interior to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Wind Advisory remains in effect for the area south of Birch Lake, and will issue one for the Eastern Alaska Range. && Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...The ridge over the area shifts a bit east, but will still influence the weather over the Interior. Expect a few more clouds moving over the area later in the week as the ridge shifts, but it will be dry in the Central and Eastern Interior, and over most of the Arctic. The remnants of Typhoon Trami will bring clouds and showers to areas west of Ruby through next weekend with most of the showers south of the Bering Strait. It still looks like the first chance for snow in Fairbanks is at least a week away unless we get some dramatic pattern change that the models are missing. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...The remnants of Typhoon Trami will move into the southwestern Bering Sea Tuesday. Strong winds will develop in the northeast Bering Sea and Bering Strait that may produce elevated surf on St Lawrence Island Tuesday and Wednesday. && HYDROLOGY...No current issues as rivers continue to slowly fall and no significant precipitation is in the forecast through the weekend. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ226. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225- PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB OCT 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 301717 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 917 AM AKDT Sun Sep 30 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...High clouds over the Eastern Interior will be clearing with mostly clear skies returning over most of the forecast area, including most of the Arctic Coast. A fairly active pattern in the Bering Sea as a strong low swings fronts through the area with occasional showers brushing the southwest coast and moving northwest across St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait. Models...Solutions are in very good agreement through next weekend. The biggest challenge will be the temperature forecasts. Solutions keep a stacked low in the Central Bering Sea through Friday with occasional bands of showers moving up the coast and over St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait. Aloft...at 500 hpa...Strong ridging over the forecast area with a 578 dam center over Hughes this afternoon. A ridge axis extends northwest over Wainwright, another south over Seward and along 150W, and weaker axis extend southeast over the Upper Tanana Valley and southwest to St Matthew Island. Low center that was over the Western Bering Sea has merged with a 520 dam low over the northern Sea of Ohkotsk, and a 532 dam low has moved to 250 nm south of Dutch Harbor. A broad area of lower heights remains over Canada. By Monday morning the ridge remains stationary but weakens to 575 dam as the center drifts north over the central Arctic Plains. The lows in the northern Sea of Ohkotsk move north into Siberia, while a 502 dam low develops over northern Kamchatka and moves over the Western Bering Sea. The low south of the Aleutians moves near Cold Bay at 537 dam. And by Tuesday morning the ridge center moves to 300 nm north of Point Barrow at 570 dam with the axis extending southeast over Yakutat. The low near Cold Bay will weaken and dissipate, while a 506 dam low will form near near Kamchatka and move over the Western Bering Sea. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm lies outside the states boundaries. A dome of +10C temperatures continues to build over the state, mainly west of Fairbanks, and extending north over the Northwest Arctic Coast. Temperatures start cooling slowly beginning late Monday and will cool slowly through the remainder of the week. Surface...Ridge of high pressure extends from 700 nm north of Point Barrow over the Yukon Territory, and west over interior Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska. Trough of low pressure remains to the west with a 985 mb low in the Sea of Ohkotsk moving north into Siberia, a 990 mb low in the Central Bering Sea, and a 977 mb low 350 nm south of Dutch Harbor. Leeside troughing has developed over the Arctic Plains and north of the Alaska Range. A 1034 mb center in the Arctic will move southeast to MacKenzie Bay by early Monday morning and slide southeast along the Yukon and Northwest Territories border before moving over British Columbia early Tuesday morning. The low south of Nikolski will move near Cold Bay Monday morning at 991 mb, then continues north to Nunivak Island as it weakens and eventually dissipates early Tuesday morning. A 1033 mb high will remain over the Beaufort Sea with ridging extending west along 74N as it weakens to 1029 mb Monday night. A weak thermal trough will develop over the Upper Yukon Flats with a 1017 mb center near Ft Yukon Tuesday morning. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Mostly clear conditions for most of the area. The 30/1545Z GOES MVFR/IFR Probability guidance indicates there may be some stratus just off the central Coast. East winds over most of the area with the strongest winds along the Eastern Arctic Coast gusting to around 30 mph. Some gusty gap winds developing in the Brooks Range will kick up out of the south to 30 mph tonight through Monday. Daytime temperatures will be unseasonably warm with good cooling overnight that will allow temperatures to fall into the teens in the cooler inland areas. West Coast and Western Interior...Some clouds along the southwest coast and in the Bering Strait, otherwise mostly clear. Northeast to east winds 10 to 30 mph with the strongest winds in the Lower Yukon Delta, and near the Bering Strait. Expect some gusting winds in the Nulato Hills, and higher elevations in the Western Interior to around 20 mph. Unseasonably warm during the day with highs in the upper 50s to around 60, but cooling sharply overnight with lows near freezing in the inland areas, and around 40 along the coast. Central and Eastern Interior...Some high clouds in the area will move out with mostly clear conditions returning. overnight lows will dip down around 20 in some locations with most areas in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Winds picking up in the Upper Tanana Valley will keep that area warmer. Northeast to east winds 5 to 10 mph tonight increasing toward morning in the Upper Tanana Valley as the Tanana Valley Jet kicks in with winds around Delta Junction increasing to 30 mph gusting near 50 mph early Monday morning and remaining strong into the afternoon before diminishing Monday evening. Will issue a Wind Advisory for the area south of Birch Lake. && Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...The ridge over the area is not expected to move much. The low in the Bering Sea will erode the western flank some allowing some clouds and showers to move over the west coast, but nothing significant at this time. Expect temperatures to slowly cool through the week. It is looking like the first chance for snow in Fairbanks is at least a week away unless we get some dramatic pattern change that the models are missing. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...The remnants of Typhoon Trami will move into the southwestern Bering Sea Tuesday. Strong winds will develop in the northeast Bering Sea and Bering Strait that may produce elevated surf on St Lawrence Island Tuesday and Wednesday. && HYDROLOGY...Interior rivers remain near bankfull, but are slowly falling and that will continue with no significant precipitation expected this week. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory for AKZ223. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225- PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB SEP 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 301115 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 315 AM AKDT Sun Sep 30 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...Mostly clear skies will continue over the forecast area for another day, even over most of the Arctic Coast. A fairly active pattern with occasional showers brushing the southwest coast and Bering Strait remains out west as a stacked low remains in the Central Bering Sea. Models...30/00Z solutions are in very good agreement through Thursday. The biggest challenge will be the temperature forecasts as they indicate warmer air moving in, but the clear skies will bring excellent radiational cooling allowing temperatures to fall significantly at night. Solutions keep a stacked low in the Central Bering Sea with some showers moving up the coast and over St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait at times. Aloft...at 500 hpa...Strong ridging over the forecast area with a 580 dam center over Hughes this morning. A ridge axis extends northwest over Wainwright, another south over Seward and along 150W, and a weaker axis extends southeast over the Upper Tanana Valley. A 526 dam low center that was over the Western Bering Sea has moved over the Northern Kamchatka Peninsula while a 520 dam low remains over the northern Sea of Ohkotsk, and a 536 dam low has formed 300 nm south of Atka. A broad area of lower heights remains over Canada. By Monday morning the ridge remains stationary but weakens to 575 dam as the center drifts north over the central Arctic Plains. The lows near the Kamchatka peninsula merge over the northeast Sea of Ohkotsk, and the low south of the Aleutians moves near Cold Bay at 537 dam. And by Tuesday morning the ridge center moves to 300 nm north of Point Barrow at 570 dam with the axis extending southeast over Yakutat. The low near Cold Bay will weaken and dissipate, while a 506 dam low will form near near Kamchatka and move over the Western Bering Sea. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm lies outside the states boundaries. A dome of +10C temperatures continues to build over the state, mainly west of Fairbanks, and extending north over the Northwest Arctic Coast. Temperatures start cooling slowly beginning late Monday and will cool slowly through the remainder of the week. Surface...Ridge of high pressure extends from 700 nm north of Point Barrow over the Yukon Territory, and west over interior Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska. Trough of low pressure remains to the west with a 985 mb low in the Sea of Ohkotsk moving north into Siberia, a 990 mb low in the Central Bering Sea, and a 977 mb low 300 nm south of Nikolski. Leeside troughing has developed over the Arctic Plains and north of the Alaska Range. A 1034 mb center in the Arctic will move southeast to MacKenzie Bay by early Monday morning and slide southeast along the Yukon and Northwest Territories border before moving over British Columbia early Tuesday morning. The low south of Nikolski will move near Cold Bay Monday morning at 991 mb, then continues north to Nunivak Island as it weakens and eventually dissipates early Tuesday morning. A 1033 mb high will remain over the Beaufort Sea with ridging extending west along 74N as it weakens to 1029 mb Monday night. A weak thermal trough will develop over the Upper Yukon Flats with a 1017 mb center near Ft Yukon Tuesday morning. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Mostly clear conditions for most of the area. Even the 30/0745Z GOES MVFR/IFR Probability guidance is clear today! East widns over most of the area with the strongest winds along the Eastern Arctic Coast gusting to around 30 mph. Some gusty gap winds developing in the Brooks Range will kick up out of the south to 30 mph tonight through Monday. Daytime temperatures will be unseasonably warm with good cooling overnight that will allow temperatures to fall into the teens in the cooler inland areas. West Coast and Western Interior...Some clouds along the southwest coast and in the Bering Strait, otherwise mostly clear. Northeast to east winds 10 to 30 mph with the strongest winds in the Lower Yukon Delta, and near the Bering Strait. Expect some gusting winds in the Nulato Hills, and higher elevations in the Western Interior to around 20 mph. Unseasonably warm during the day with highs in the upper 50s to around 60, but cooling sharply overnight with lows near freezing in the inland areas, and around 40 along the coast. Central and Eastern Interior...Another beautiful day to get out and enjoy as highs will rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s again today for most of the Interior. Mostly clear skies will prevail so expect temperatures to cool sharply once the sun goes down with lows falling into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Northeast to east winds 5 to 10 mph today. Expect winds to kick up a little in the Upper Tanana Valley as the Tanana Valley Jet kicks in with winds around Delta Junction increasing to 30 mph gusting near 50 mph early Monday morning and remaining strong into the afternoon before diminishing Monday evening. && Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...The anomalous ridge over the area is not expected to move much. The low in the Bering Sea will erode the western flank some allowing some clouds and showers to move over the west coast, but nothing significant at this time. Expect temperatures to slowly cool through the week. It is looking like the first chance for snow in Fairbanks is at least a week away unless we get some dramatic pattern change that the models are missing. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...The remnants of Typhoon Trami will move into the southwestern Bering Sea Tuesday. Strong winds will develop in the northeast Bering Sea and Bering Strait that may produce elevated surf on St Lawrence Island Tuesday and Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY...Interior rivers remain near bankfull, but are slowly falling and that will continue with no significant precipitation expected this week. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225- PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB SEP 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 280541 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 141 AM EDT Fri Sep 28 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will be off to the east by sunrise, and rain will be gone as well. Mainly dry and seasonably cool conditions are expected today and into the weekend. Temperatures will moderate some by early next Monday, and a few chances at rain are expected in the middle to latter part of the new week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/... Trend on radar is promising with the rain moving off to the east on schedule. Have allowed the one FLS to expire, and even the SC mtns are seeing the rain lighten up attm. Heavy rain still possible in the flood watch area, as the convection in central VA and MD is going to strafe those counties over the next 3-4 hrs. Otherwise, the timing of rain exit/taper still looking like 9-10Z from most of the area. perhaps only the far eastern towns could see some lingering and very light precip in the first one or two post-dawn hours. Clearing not far off - as KERI and KHZY are clear now. But, I am not that optimistic that clearing will make it more than one county (Warren) into the CWA by dawn. Sky should brighten shortly thereafter as the sun heats things up and kissing R exit and L entrance regions of upper jets make good subsidence/drying. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Drier air will make a return for Friday as the wave of low pressure moves off to the east. By mid-morning we will see increasing amounts of sunshine. Highs will range from the mid 60s north to around 70 over the SE. Cool and less humid Fri night with lows in the mid 40s to the mid 50s. A weak shortwave will bring thicker clouds to the NW mountains and possibly a light shower, but otherwise quiet weather will continue into the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Heights are forecast to rise early in the period and remain high through the end of the period as the southeastern ridge becomes reestablished. With accompanying high pressure at the surface we should remain dry at least through Monday. The NAEFS is advertising a warm-up for next week coincident with the eastern US ridge. A warm front is made to string out just to our north keeping us on the mild side for much if not all week. At this time it looks like the ridging will keep significant northern stream energy away from our cwa through mid week...with scattered showers possible late next week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Some adjustments to the late evening TAF package. TAFS have been rather good so far, but the rain falling into the dry air has started to lower CIGS across the south now. Earlier discussion below. Dry air at low levels will slow the onset of poor conditions. Most areas across the south have some light rain, radar would indicate heavier rain falling, but dry air in place. Conditions VFR for much of CWA this afternoon, with lower cigs beginning to edge into the southern tier as a developing area of low pressure begins to lift north. This will slide through tonight, spreading rain and lowering cigs across the CWA through mid evening. Model soundings supporting IFR conditions across much of central Pennsylvania (generally south of I-80) by midnight. As rain tapers off late, areas of fog will develop to reinforce IFR conditions. Restrictions relent between sunrise and late morning Friday as high pressure begins to build into the region - beginning an extended period of excellent flying conditions that will last through the weekend. .Outlook... Fri...AM rain/low cigs/fog likely. Improving to VFR by midday. Sat-Sun...Patchy AM fog possible. Mon-Tue...No sig wx expected. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ064>066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RXR NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...RXR LONG TERM...La Corte/Gartner AVIATION...Martin/RXR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KSGX 241643 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 943 AM PDT Mon Sep 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure aloft will build in from the west and eventually overhead Southern California by Thursday. This will lead to building heat inland Wednesday through Thursday. For Friday into next weekend, an upper level low off the West Coast will move inland into northern California, bringing stronger onshore flow and a cooling trend for southern California. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... ...Update... The marine layer is locked in place from the coast extending inland some 25 miles. Cloud thickness has increased and WRF run shows some high surface RH along the immediate coast this afternoon, indicative of the possibility of some cloudiness remaining at the beaches this afternoon. However, slow clearing will occur elsewhere. Temperatures will cool a few degrees from yesterday. No changes were made to the forecast. See previous discussion below for further forecast details. ...Previous Discussion (Issued at 444 AM PDT Mon Sep 24 2018)... High pressure to the south will bring a warming trend through Thursday. Weak offshore flow will bring some locally gusty east to northeast winds, mostly 25 mph or less, near the coastal slopes of the mountains into the inland valleys at times for Tuesday into Thursday, mainly nights and mornings, with the greatest warming for the valleys and some inland coastal areas on Wednesday. Through Tuesday, the marine layer and weak onshore flow will bring areas of night and morning low clouds and fog, spreading into portions of the inland valleys. For Wednesday through Friday, the marine layer will become shallower with the coastal low clouds not spreading as far inland. Across the eastern Pacific into the western states, the global models are in good agreement into Friday, and in decent agreement into Sunday with more significant spread beyond Sunday morning into early next week. A closed low pressure system over the eastern Pacific is forecast to move towards the California coast on Friday and into northern California on Saturday. This would bring stronger onshore flow for southern California with a cooling trend for Friday into next weekend. && .AVIATION... 241600Z...Coast/Valleys...A deep 1300 ft thick cloud layer in place this morning with OVC010-015 tops 025 slowly clearing back to the coast through 21Z. CIGs may not completely clear from KSAN and KCRQ. Vis at KONT will be 3-5 miles in haze through 20Z. Low clouds will move back inland after 01Z with similar bases and tops, reaching KONT between 10-12Z. The low clouds will again be slow to clear back the coast in Tuesday afternoon, with CIGS at KSAN and KCRQ through 20Z. Vis at KONT will be 2-4 miles in haze through 19Z Tuesday. Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear with unrestricted through Tuesday. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine weather is expected through Friday. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Gregoria (Update)/17 (Prev Discussion) AVIATION/MARINE...Moede  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMTR 231147 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 447 AM PDT Sun Sep 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS...An upper level trough moving across far northern California will likely maintain a cooling trend for inland areas today. High pressure will begin building inland to our north and east tonight. This will result in dry offshore winds and fire weather concerns for the North Bay Hills from tonight through Tuesday. Also, expect much warmer conditions by Tuesday and Wednesday, with temperatures warming well above seasonal averages. Temperatures will cool late in the week as an upper low approaches from the west. && .DISCUSSION...As of 3:30 AM PDT Sunday...Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper trough beginning to move across the Pacific Northwest and far northern California early this morning. Would typically expect the marine layer to deepen and onshore flow to increase under such a scenario, but latest observations indicate this is not happening. In fact, latest Fort Ord profiler data shows the marine layer remaining relatively shallow with a depth of about 1000 feet. Also, onshore pressure gradients have been trending weaker. In addition, low clouds early this morning are less extensive compared to 24 hours ago. These factors call into question previous forecast thinking that the cooling trend would continue today, especially inland. Based on current trends, the most likely outcome will be temperatures near persistence in most areas. And, with less coastal stratus, some coastal areas may experience slight warming today. After the upper trough moves off to our east late today, an upper ridge is forecast to build off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and southward along the northern California coast. Also, surface high pressure will build inland to our north and east by late tonight, causing winds in the hills to shift from westerly to north or northeast, especially in the North Bay Mountains. Locally gusty offshore winds in the North Bay Mountains could result in critical fire weather conditions at higher elevations from tonight through Tuesday. See Fire Weather Discussion below for details on the Fire Weather Watch and fire weather concerns. Building high pressure aloft during the first half of the week and weak offshore flow will result in a robust warming trend from Monday through Wednesday. Widespread highs in the 90s are likely across inland areas by Tuesday and Wednesday. Coastal temperatures will be more difficult to predict as they will be very dependent on the strength of offshore flow. Current WRF model indicates very weak onshore flow will prevail at the surface with light offshore flow just above. Such a scenario would mean coastal temps will mostly remain in the 70s to lower 80s. But if offshore flow is stronger than anticipated, coastal areas could warm well into the 80s or even a few lower 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday. The upcoming warm-up will result in uncomfortably warm daytime conditions across much of our area from Tuesday through Thursday, but heat risks are expected to remain low to moderate for the most part due to long autumn nights and cool overnight lows. A rex block is forecast to develop offshore by midweek as an upper low begins to undercut the upper high. The models agree that the low will slowly undercut the ridge and approach the California coast during the second half of the week. Cooling due to the low's approach will likely commence as early as Thursday, but only a slight downturn in temperatures is expected that day. Much more significant cooling is then anticipated by Friday and Saturday. Both the ECMWF and GFS generate spotty light precipitation as the low moves inland by early Saturday. Since this is still 7 days out, will hold off on adding any rain chances to the forecast. The longer range models forecast a second upper low to move onshore by early October. The 00Z ECMWF is particularly interesting with this second system, forecasting widespread significant rainfall across our area on October 1st and 2nd. && .AVIATION...As of 4:47 AM PDT Sunday...In 72 hours it went from clear skies (Thu) to southerly surge stratus/fog (Fri) to widespread coastal stratus/fog (Sat), and now stratus/fog coverage confined to the immediate coast mainly from San Mateo county south to Pt Conception including the Salinas Valley. Satellite also shows a few patches of stratus and fog near Pt Reyes. Inland skies are VFR while on the coast the marine layer remains compressed favoring VLIFR-IFR cigs and visibilities for the morning. The 12z tafs are a blend of persistence and WRF model output. A dry cool frontal boundary, a temporarily steepened northerly pressure gradient, NW winds and additional compression and downslope drying has entered the boundary layer reducing the marine stratus and fog areal coverage as previously described; continuing erosion due to weak cool air advection, not enough to mix out the marine inversion, and NW winds should help lift VLIFR-IFR to VFR fairly quickly later on in the morning. Inland skies continue VFR. Low confidence on stratus and fog coverage tonight into Monday morning. Vicinity of KSFO...VFR tempo IFR cig 12z-15z. Light westerly wind increasing by late morning with gusts possible up to 20-25 knots in the afternoon and evening. VFR forecast tonight and Monday. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VLIFR-IFR til 17z-18z, VFR patchy MVFR late morning into early afternoon. IFR probably redeveloping tonight and Monday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER...As of 3:00 AM PDT Sunday...Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for the North Bay Mountains from 11 pm Sunday night through Tuesday afternoon. North to Northeast winds will develop over Napa county tonight and drive humidity lower during the pre-dawn hours of Monday. This offshore wind event looks moderate, especially in terms of wind strength, but confidence is pretty high on offshore pattern developing. Fuels remain critically dry, so any new starts will be susceptible to the winds, low humidities and dry fuels. Biggest threat area looks to be Napa county hills, northeast Sonoma county and around Mt Tam. Winds will ease during the day Monday as temperatures warm up around 89. Offshore winds then look to redevelop of similar magnitude Monday night into Tuesday morning, but with an even drier air mass then moving in. Overnight humidity recoveries could then well be confined to around 20 percent or even less. Temperatures are forecast to continue climbing and widespread 90s are likely across inland areas Tuesday and Wednesday. But winds are expected to be light after Tuesday. Cooling is forecast late in the week. && .MARINE...as of 4:06 AM PDT Sunday...A trough will remain nearly stationary along the California coast while strong high pressure becomes stationary off the Pacific Northwest coast. Gusty northwesterly winds will spread across the coastal waters today while onshore winds become gusty over the bays this afternoon and evening. An extension of high pressure will build into the northern Great Basin tonight and again Monday night into Tuesday. Winds over the coastal waters and bays will be much lighter by later Monday, possibly becoming variable or light southerly early Tuesday morning. Westerly to northwesterly winds return Tuesday afternoon into Thursday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tday...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 9 AM SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 9 AM SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm SCA...Mry Bay from 2 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: Dykema AVIATION: Canepa MARINE: Canepa FIRE WEATHER: Dykema/Blier/RWW Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KOKX 121815 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 215 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will dissipate across the area through Thursday. Meanwhile, tonight into Thursday high pressure will begin building in from the north. High pressure over northern New England and extending into the region will drift offshore Saturday and then remain into the beginning of next week. A frontal system approaches for Tuesday possibly with tropical moisture from Florence. Refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast updates on Hurricane Florence. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... With the frontal boundary nearby today and some diurnal heating, instability is expected to increase. Further vertical lift will be given due to periodic shortwave and their positive vorticity advection along the northwest of the upper level longwave ridge the region will be in. The airmass remains very moist with SW flow from low to upper levels and precipitable waters of 2.18" from the 06Z OKX sounding. Precipitable waters will remain near to slightly above 2 inches through today. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity should increase through the afternoon, with CAMS continuing to focus on the interior hill terrain with greatest coverage. Isolated development possible along sea breeze boundaries as well. Due to slow storm movement localized urban and poor drainage flooding is possible. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s with abundant clouds through the day and light easterly flow. There remains a high risk for the meteorological enhancement of rip current formation at Atlantic Ocean beaches today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... For tonight, the evening will still have a chance of showers and thunderstorms. The chances for thunderstorms then decreases overnight into Thursday. The chances for showers will be due to once again periodic shortwave activity along the northwest side of the longwave upper ridge in the local region. High pressure will begin to build in more from the north so, moisture will eventually not be as deep especially Thursday. The low levels will eventually increase with easterly flow, promoting more stable conditions especially farther east. Shallow boundary layer with some more drying between 5 and 12kft may allow for the rain showers to be very light and perhaps drizzle late tonight into Thursday. For lows tonight, only expecting temperatures to lower into the upper 60s to lower 70s with less of a diurnal curve. Airmass is still relatively humid with dewpoints also in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Hence, low levels will be very close to getting saturated once again. Patchy fog was placed in the forecast for much of tonight into early Thursday. It is possible the fog could be dense again especially for eastern coastal areas tonight into early Thursday. Highs Thursday will be in the 70s once again, but lower 70s for Southern Connecticut and Eastern Long Island with greater marine influence from the easterly winds. There will likely be another high risk for the meteorological enhancement of rip current formation at Atlantic Beaches Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... With the exception of Florence, a large scale upper level ridge will extend across the eastern half of the country through the weekend. Local impacts from Florence will be rough seas, high surf, beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest track and details on Florence. As a longwave trough moves into the Pacific northwest Monday, and tracks through southern Canada, the ridge will weaken. The developing frontal system in southeastern Canada and into the Great Lakes may begin to affect the region Monday into Tuesday with a chance of showers. There is some uncertainty with the timing of this system with the ECMWF trending a little slower, and precipitation may not move into the region until as late as Wednesday. There may be a few light showers or light rain Friday across the inland areas as a weak impulse tracks across the region. However, with the ridge in place the chances of precipitation will be slight. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure builds down from New England into Thursday afternoon. Still on track for improvement to MVFR this afternoon except for possibly at CT terminals. Still looks like IFR/VLIFR conditions return tonight, though exact timing is uncertain. Then expect conditions to improve to MVFR towards midday on Thursday. Winds vary from SE to N across the region at less than 10kt will become light and variable throughout by early this evening. Winds then become NE-E at less than 10kt by mid-late Thursday morning. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Low confidence in timing of onset of IFR conditions this evening. KLGA TAF Comments: Low confidence in timing of onset of MVFR conditions this afternoon and then of IFR conditions this evening. KEWR TAF Comments: Low confidence in timing of onset of IFR conditions this evening. KTEB TAF Comments: Low confidence in timing of improvement to IFR and MVFR today. KHPN TAF Comments: Low confidence in timing of onset of MVFR conditions this afternoon and then of IFR conditions this evening. KISP TAF Comments: Low confidence in timing of onset of MVFR conditions this afternoon and then of IFR conditions this evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Thursday afternoon-Friday night...MVFR/IFR probable. There is also a chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. .Saturday-Monday...VFR. && .MARINE... Marine dense fog should gradually improve through the afternoon with heating. The winds will remain light through tonight with a weak pressure gradient in place. For Thursday, the pressure gradient increases between low pressure to the south and high pressure to the north with an increase in easterly flow. Wind gusts up to near 20 kt are expected on the ocean Thursday. Ocean seas will continue to build during the short term with seas of mostly 5 to 6 ft today and then 6 to 8 ft tonight with some 9 to 10 ft ocean seas in the forecast for Thursday. Small craft advisory for hazardous seas is still in effect for the ocean and now goes through Thursday night. Helping build these ocean seas will be the increasing swell from distant Hurricane Florence. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center (www.nhc.noaa.gov) for the latest track and details with Hurricane Florence. Ocean seas above 5 feet will be ongoing Thursday night and a small craft advisory for hazardous seas has been extended through Thursday night. Ocean seas will likely remain above 5 feet through the weekend and a SCA will likely be needed. Long period swells from Florence will cause rough conditions at the entrances to inlets and eastern Long Island Sound. Refer to the National Hurricane Center (www.nhc.noaa.gov) for the latest forecast updates. Winds will remain below SCA levels on all the forecast waters through the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Additional rainfall is forecast to range generally between two and four tenths of an inch, with locally higher amounts possible through this evening. Through this evening, localized minor flooding of urban and poor drainage areas, is possible in any heavier downpours and/or thunderstorms. There is a low and isolated potential for flash flooding due to the expected slow storm movement. Expecting mostly rainfall totals late tonight through Thursday of less than a quarter of an inch with rain expected to be lighter if it occurs during that timeframe. No significant widespread hydrologic problems are then expected through the weekend. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The coastal flood threat will continue to diminish tonight as high pressure builds in and swell energy decreases. Meanwhile at the Atlantic beachfront, the surf is expected to build to 8 to 14 ft Tonight and continue into Friday. A few higher waves are possible. The high surf should gradually subside this weekend, to 3 to 5 ft or so by Monday. This will cause widespread beach flooding and erosion, particularly during the times of high tide Thursday and Friday. At this point the probability for overwashes for localized overwashes is low. Brief and localized minor flooding is possible along the most vulnerable shoreline and barrier beach communities during these times of high tide. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ330-338-340- 345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/19 NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...19 AVIATION...Maloit MARINE...JM/19 HYDROLOGY...JM/19 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KOKX 121347 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 947 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will eventually settle to the south of Long Island early today. The front will linger south of Long Island tonight and move farther southward late tonight into Thursday. Meanwhile, tonight into Thursday high pressure will begin building in from the north. High pressure over northern New England and extending into the region will drift offshore Saturday and then remain into the beginning of next week. A frontal system approaches for Tuesday possibly with tropical moisture from Florence. Refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast updates on Hurricane Florence. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Showers scattered across Southern Connecticut and mostly isolated elsewhere. The main weather feature early today is fog, and the fog is dense across most of NYC, Long Island and Southeast Connecticut. Dense fog advisory remains in effect until 13Z and possibly may need to get expanded farther north and west. Fog will probably still be patchy in coverage for the region mid to late this morning before totally burning off with patchy dense fog extending later in the morning possible. With the frontal boundary nearby today and some diurnal heating, instability is expected to increase. Further vertical lift will be given due to periodic shortwave and their positive vorticity advection along the northwest of the upper level longwave ridge the region will be in. The airmass remains very moist with SW flow from low to upper levels and precipitable waters of 2.18" from the 06Z OKX sounding. Precipitable waters will remain near to slightly above 2 inches through today. Chances for showers increase through the day with higher chances of thunderstorms for this afternoon. Models are focusing on the interior with more precipitation. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s with abundant clouds through the day and light easterly flow. There remains a high risk for the meteorological enhancement of rip current formation at Atlantic Ocean beaches today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... For tonight, the evening will still have a chance of showers and thunderstorms. The chances for thunderstorms then decreases overnight into Thursday. The chances for showers will be due to once again periodic shortwave activity along the northwest side of the longwave upper ridge in the local region. High pressure will begin to build in more from the north so, moisture will eventually not be as deep especially Thursday. The low levels will eventually increase with easterly flow, promoting more stable conditions especially farther east. Shallow boundary layer with some more drying between 5 and 12kft may allow for the rain showers to be very light and perhaps drizzle late tonight into Thursday. For lows tonight, only expecting temperatures to lower into the upper 60s to lower 70s with less of a diurnal curve. Airmass is still relatively humid with dewpoints also in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Hence, low levels will be very close to getting saturated once again. Patchy fog was placed in the forecast for much of tonight into early Thursday. It is possible the fog could be dense again especially for eastern coastal areas tonight into early Thursday. Highs Thursday will be in the 70s once again, but lower 70s for Southern Connecticut and Eastern Long Island with greater marine influence from the easterly winds. There will likely be another high risk for the meteorological enhancement of rip current formation at Atlantic Beaches Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... With the exception of Florence, a large scale upper level ridge will extend across the eastern half of the country through the weekend. Local impacts from Florence will be rough seas, high surf, beach erosion and dangerous rip currents. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest track and details on Florence. As a longwave trough moves into the Pacific northwest Monday, and tracks through southern Canada, the ridge will weaken. The developing frontal system in southeastern Canada and into the Great Lakes may begin to affect the region Monday into Tuesday with a chance of showers. There is some uncertainty with the timing of this system with the ECMWF trending a little slower, and precipitation may not move into the region until as late as Wednesday. There may be a few light showers or light rain Friday across the inland areas as a weak impulse tracks across the region. However, with the ridge in place the chances of precipitation will be slight. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure builds down from New England into Thursday morning. VLIFR-IFR conditions should improve to MVFR by around midday, before deteriorating again after dark. There is still a large degree of uncertainty on the exact timing of the improvement to MVFR at any given location. With high pressure to the north, there is some uncertainty as to how low visibilities and ceilings will be at KISP/KBDR/KGON tonight. Winds mainly light and variable through the TAF period, though mainly city terminals could see a brief period of NE-SE winds at 6-9 kt this afternoon. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Low confidence in timing of improvement to IFR and MVFR today. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: Low confidence in timing of improvement to IFR and MVFR today. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: Low confidence in timing of improvement to IFR and MVFR today. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Low confidence in timing of improvement to IFR and MVFR today. KHPN TAF Comments: Low confidence in timing of improvement to MVFR today. KISP TAF Comments: Low confidence in timing of improvement to IFR and MVFR today. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Thursday-Friday night...MVFR/IFR probable. There is also a chance of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. .Saturday-Sunday...VFR. && .MARINE... Marine dense fog expected across most waters through much of the morning with saturated low levels and light winds as well as high dewpoints. This may need to get expanded to Western Long Island Sound. The winds will remain light through tonight with a weak pressure gradient in place. For Thursday, the pressure gradient increases between low pressure to the south and high pressure to the north with an increase in easterly flow. Wind gusts up to near 20 kt are expected on the ocean Thursday. Ocean seas will continue to build during the short term with seas of mostly 5 to 6 ft today and then 6 to 8 ft tonight with some 9 to 10 ft ocean seas in the forecast for Thursday. Small craft advisory for hazardous seas is still in effect for the ocean and now goes through Thursday night. Helping build these ocean seas will be the increasing swell from distant Hurricane Florence. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center (www.nhc.noaa.gov) for the latest track and details with Hurricane Florence. Ocean seas above 5 feet will be ongoing Thursday night and a small craft advisory for hazardous seas has been extended through Thursday night. Ocean seas will likely remain above 5 feet through the weekend and a SCA will likely be needed. Long period swells from Florence will cause rough conditions at the entrances to inlets and eastern Long Island Sound. Refer to the National Hurricane Center (www.nhc.noaa.gov) for the latest forecast updates. Winds will remain below SCA levels on all the forecast waters through the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Additional rainfall is forecast to range generally between two and four tenths of an inch, with locally higher amounts possible through this evening. Expecting mostly rainfall totals late tonight through Thursday of less than a quarter of an inch with rain expected to be lighter if it occurs during that timeframe. Through this evening, localized minor flooding of mainly urban and poor drainage areas is possible in any heavier downpours and/or thunderstorms. No significant widespread hydrologic problems are then expected through the weekend. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Water levels could touch or just slightly exceed minor coastal flood thresholds this morning for South Shore Bays along Southern Nassau County with coastal flood statement addressing this. The coastal flood threat should diminish thereafter as high pressure builds in and swell energy decreases. At the Atlantic beachfront, the surf is expected to build back up towards high surf advisory levels in the Thursday-Friday time frame. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ330-338- 340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/19 NEAR TERM...JM SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...19 AVIATION...Maloit/MD MARINE...JM/19 HYDROLOGY...JM/19 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KLWX 050121 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 921 PM EDT Tue Sep 4 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure will remain across the eastern United States through much of the week. A cold front will approach from the Great Lakes late in the week, stalling out over the region over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Ridging exists throughout the column this evening. Thunderstorms were more sparse than yesterday and diminished prior to sunset. The overnight hours will be quiet, albeit warm and muggy. Areas of fog are a concern once again, in the typical climatologically favored areas. A few patches of cirrus traversing the area this evening may impede this development, but only slightly. Few if any changes needed to going forecast. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Riding will persist into Wednesday with mostly sunny skies and continued hot and humid conditions. High temperatures will reach the 90s area-wide, and with dew points in the 70s, heat indices may again reach the 100-105F range and heat advisories may need to be considered. Some isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible again in the afternoon/evening hours, but coverage should continue the downward trend and be less than today. Another warm and muggy night is expected Wednesday night, along with areas of fog. Lows in the 70s. A cold front will move in from the north during the day Thursday. Hot and humid conditions will exist ahead of the front with highs in the low 90s. This will lead to the development of 1500-2500 J/KG of MLCAPE by the afternoon hours, and in turn scattered showers/thunderstorms. Shear will remain limited (less 20 knots 0-6km), but given presence of a low level boundary and high CAPE values, a marginal severe thunderstorm risk exists. In addition, precipitable water values will remain high (1.75-2.0"), and heavy rain and a flooding risk will also present itself. Given the position of the upper level ridge, and the slow movement of the front, the highest chances for convective activity will be across the northern half of the region (I-66/US50 northward). The front will continue to shift southward Thursday night with chances for showers continuing overnight. Lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Friday into Saturday, a weak cold front will move through the region Friday afternoon and stall near the Virginia/North Carolina border on Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely on Friday with the potential for storms to be strong/severe. Some storms will likely cause heavy downpours as precipitable water values are expected to be near the 2 inch mark through early Saturday. Scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible on Saturday as the boundary remains stalled just to the south of our area. Winds will be mainly out of the north behind the frontal passage leading to daytime temperatures slowly dropping into the 70s through the weekend. Sunday into Monday, the stalled frontal boundary will move north as a warm front. Scattered showers and storms will continue be possible on Sunday. A strong cold front will approach from the west and move through our region Monday afternoon. Thunderstorms and showers will be possible again. Winds will be out of the south on Sunday but will shift out of the north behind the frontal passage on Monday. && .AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The threat of any thunderstorms ended with sunset. Areas of fog are likely again overnight, with the highest chances of sub- VFR conditions at MRB/CHO. IFR probable at MRB, and am carrying 1 1/2SM vsbys 09-12 UTC. It could go lower once again. Am carrying MVFR at IAD predawn as well, although chances for that to materialize less. Conditions improve to VFR at all TAF sites on Wednesday. An isolated shower/thunderstorm will be possible again. A cold front will move southward on Thursday with increasing chances for scattered showers/thunderstorms. Brief intervals of sub-VFR conditions will be possible. Thunderstorms and showers will be likely Friday morning into early afternoon. Winds will become northerly leading to cooler temperatures and but skies will remain mostly cloudy. SubVFR conditions will be possible. On Saturday, winds will become easterly leading to increasing cloud levels including the likelihood of lowering of cloud bases. Scattered showers and storms will be possible. SubVFR conditions are likely. && .MARINE... High pressure through Wednesday night should keep light winds over the waters, though an isolated thunderstorm could produce gusty winds during the afternoon hours. The gradient increases ahead of an approaching cold front on Thursday, but at this time will keep winds generally below SCA criteria. However, the risk of thunderstorms with gusty winds will increase significantly Thursday afternoon and evening. On Friday, winds will shift out of the north with showers and thunderstorms likely during the morning to early afternoon periods. A northerly flow will lead to longer fetches and the chances for strong winds reaching over Small craft levels of 18 knots Friday night. Saturday, winds will become easterly with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Winds should remain light below 18 knots. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Light and generally southerly flow will continue the next several days with water levels remaining slightly elevated. Near minor flooding will be possible around the time of high tide, however all sites are currently forecast to remain below flood stage. && .CLIMATE... Temperatures will be quite warm this week. DCA tied the record high today (Tuesday). Record warm lows are in jeopardy today as well at DCA and IAD; it will depend upon the midnight (LST) temperature. Here is the table for Tuesday-Thursday, not taking today's observations into account: Record warm highs SITE DCA BWI IAD Tuesday 9/4 95/2008 96/1937 95/1985 Wednesday 9/5 97/1881 96/1954 96/1985 Thursday 9/6 98/1954 98/1983 98/1983 Record warm lows SITE DCA BWI IAD Tuesday 9/4 76/2012 75/2012 71/2015 Wednesday 9/5 78/2012 77/1880 73/1999 Thursday 9/6 77/1983 75/1880 72/1996 Weather records for the Washington DC area (DCA) have been kept at what is now Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport since 1945. Observations from downtown Washington extend the period of record back to 1872. Weather records for the Baltimore MD area (BWI) have been kept at what is now Baltimore-Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport since 1950. Observations from downtown Baltimore extend the period of record back to 1872. Weather records for the Dulles VA area (IAD) have been kept at what is now Washington Dulles International Airport since 1960. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...HTS SHORT TERM...MM LONG TERM...JMG AVIATION...HTS/MM/JMG MARINE...MM/JMG TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MM/BKF CLIMATE...HTS/RCM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KOKX 020614 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 214 AM EDT Sun Sep 2 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control through Sunday. Meanwhile an upper level high will rebuild over the eastern states. This will allow heat and humidity to return by Labor Day and last into much of the upcoming week. A cold front will approach late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Ridge remains firmly in control overnight as sfc high drifts east, allowing for veering winds to the SE. No additional shortwaves or other triggers overnight so remaining with a dry forecast, and tweaked probabilities lower, especially to the east where drier air is in place. Temps overnight fall back a few degrees into the 60s, with fairly uniform readings expected. Cloud forecast overnight is challenging. 18z GFS has backed off on the amount of cloud cover in the low levels, while the NAM remains fairly moist with moisture trapped underneath a low level inversion. The guidance was split last night as well and there wasn't much in the way of low clouds. Have maintained partly to mostly cloudy skies, especially after 06z, based on current satellite imagery, but this will need to be monitored. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Upper ridge strengthens, as heights continue to rise. Meanwhile the sfc high centered to the east drifts south. Winds continue to veer SE then S. Temperatures rebound somewhat Sunday into the 80s in spots. WAA aloft commences late in the day and Sunday night, with increasing moisture at the sfc and throughout the column. Instability begins to creep upward from west to east, but lack of trigger should prevent much in the way of shower or thunderstorm development. Under at least partial sunshine Sunday, clouds may increase Sunday night under WAA, Warm front aloft. Lows Sunday night will be several degrees above normal, with upper 60s to lower 70s expected as the building warmth begins. There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents for Atlantic beaches on Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Main story during the long term period is the return of the heat and humidity. Deep layered ridging will dominate the first half of the long term period over the Northeast and Mid Atlantic regions. A 595 dam upper level anticyclone will result in strong subsidence and warmer temperatures. Highs ranging from the mid 80s into the lower 90s will be common Mon through Thu. Humidity levels are also expected to remain in the lower to mid 70s through Thu. The combination of these will result in heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees each aftn. Tue appears to be the hottest day. Warm and muggy conditions will continue each night with lows in the 70s. Still a bit too early to issue heat advsys, mid shift may tonight, otherwise its likely on Sun. There is a low chance for diurnally driven shower/tstm activity Mon and Tue, although coverage is only expected to be isold at this time. A sfc trof on Tue, in addition to any seabreeze boundaries, may serve as the focus for the activity, and despite this boundary pushing through and winds becoming northerly temporarily, there is really no change in airmass behind it. So the heat is expected to continue through mid week. A weak shortwave passes to the east Tue night which could trigger an isold shower/tstm. The core of the upper high will be over the local area on Wed. These higher heights will keep the atmosphere capped inhibiting convective activity, thus have removed PoPs during this time. The upper level ridge begins to break down Wed night and Thu with heights lowering through Fri as n upper trough tracks across eastern Canada. A cold front will also be approaching from the N with increasing chances for showers/tstms Thu aftn. There is some uncertainty on how quickly the front pushes to the S and will depend on how fast Canadian high pressure builds in behind it so have the chc for showers and/or tstms into Sat. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure remains over the area today. SCT-BKN 2000-3500 ft through the day. Longer periods of VFR expected east of the city terminals, however confidence in timing of prevailing MVFR vs VFR across all terminals is low. Light and variable winds during the pre-dawn hours become SE-S at 10kt or less by around noon. Light SW winds tonight with MVFR probable. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Tonight-Monday morning...MVFR. .Monday PM-Tuesday night...VFR. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly west of the NYC terminals, with local MVFR possible. .Tuesday night-Wednesday night...Mainly VFR, with low chance of MVFR. .Thursday...MVFR possible along with showers and possibly a thunderstorm. && .MARINE... E/SE winds diminish overnight. Winds veer to the SE/S Sunday and Sunday night as the center of high pressure located to our east drifts southward. Seas remain 1 ft or less across non ocean waters, and 2 to 4 ft on the ocean waters. A weak flow on the waters Mon-Thu will result in sub advsy conds on the waters. && .HYDROLOGY... Any tstms that develop Mon/Tue have the potential to produce heavy rainfall. The steering flow will be weak resulting in slow moving storms, thus there is a low potential for flash flooding. Additional sct showers and tstms associated with a cold frontal passage Thu/Fri also have the potential to produce heavy rain. The upper flow will be stronger however it may be parallel to the frontal boundary which could result in training storms. Low confidence in chances for flash flooding associated with this attm. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ AVIATION...JC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMQT 241113 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 713 AM EDT Fri Aug 24 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 712 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2018 ...Wet Friday ahead, especially south central... Water vapor and IR imagery early this morning shows cloud cover streaming across the UP earlier than previously forecast. This is serving to keep overnight temperatures a couple degrees warmer in some locations. Bumped down highs a degree or two for today as well with the added cloudiness. The approaching closed upper low will cross our area overnight tonight, but much of the precipitation is on the leading edge. Early this morning, thunderstorms are developing north of the Twin Cities and headed towards Duluth. Most of the models are slightly under-representing the location of the instability associated with this activity, so I chose to expand thunderstorm potential slightly. These showers and storms will begin to affect western Lake Superior shortly, and should reach the western UP by just after sunrise. Coverage will increase throughout the day, and breezy conditions are expected once again with southerly gusts of 15 to 20 mph possible. The focus for showers and storms will turn to the south-central and east overnight as the core of the upper circulation moves through. The highest rainfall totals of 0.50 to 0.75 inches are expected from Menominee into Schoolcraft counties, with locally over an inch possible if heavier storms develop later today. PWAT values are progged to reach 1.6-1.8 inches this afternoon and evening near MNM and IMT. The Keweenaw Peninsula will see the least amount of rain, likely under 0.25 inches. If the rain can manage to clear the western counties, some patchy fog development would be possible late tonight. However, model soundings are hinting towards more of a low stratus event at this time. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 245 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2018 Nam has a shortwave over the upper Great Lakes 12z Sat with a ridge across the sern U.S. This ridge gets flattened a bit as a trough moves into the Rockies by 12z Mon. Looks humid for this weekend and did not make too many changes to the going forecast. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb trough in the Rockies 12z Mon with a ridge across the sern U.S. A shortwave affects the upper Great Lakes 12z Tue with troughing remaining into Wed over the area. A sfc front gets hung up south of the area and stalls out Wed through Fri. Temperatures look to stay above normal for this forecast period and looks like a decent chance for a soaking and widespread rainfall Mon night. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 712 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2018 As a disturbance moves into the region this morning, cloud cover will build in and gradually lower. Shra associated with the disturbance will spread across Upper MI from sw to ne during the day today. VCTS cannot be ruled out, but is least likely at KCMX. Breezy conditions will again be possible this afternoon, with gusts to 20 kts out of the south at KSAW and to 15 kts out of the SSE at KIWD and KCMX. Expect cigs to fall to MVFR with further reductions to IFR probably occurring tonight, beginning first at KSAW during the evening. Should any heavier shra or tsra impact the terminals today, vis reductions to MVFR or even IFR could occur. && .MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 417 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2018 Southerly winds this afternoon and evening will approach 20 knots across the eastern half of the lake as a low pressure system approaches from the west. As the system crosses the Great Lakes region this weekend, it will weaken, as will the winds, dropping off below 15 knots through early next week. Winds may again approach 15 to 20 knots Monday night into Tuesday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ014. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KCW LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...KCW MARINE...KCW  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KTOP 171136 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 636 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018 Early this morning a positive tilt upper level trough extended from eastern IA, southwest across northeast KS. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued along and ahead of a weak front/outflow boundary that was slowly pushing south across the extreme southeast counties of the CWA. A few showers and isolated storms may continue across Lyon, Coffee and Anderson counties through 12Z. Weak isentropic downglide on the west side of the H5 trough axis has caused skies to clear across much of the CWA. Given the clear skies, light winds and T/Td depressions of 1 to 2 degrees by sunrise, there may be some patchy fog developing, especially across north central and northeast KS, but if any patchy fog develops it will mix out by 14Z. The upper level trough will slowly shift east into the southern Great Lakes and extend southwest into the lower MS River Valley late Tonight. An upper level trough across the pacific northwest will dig southeast into western MT, ID and northern UT by 12Z SAT. A weak surface ridge axis will build southeast across eastern KS this afternoon and Tonight. Expect mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid 80s. Clear skies and light winds may allow patchy fog to develop across the CWA late Tonight , especially in areas that received heavier rainfall over the past week. Lows Tonight will be in the mid 60s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018 Some modification in temperatures should occur Saturday with weak surface ridge axis over the central Plains and good insolation. The main concern for the remainder of the weekend remains to be precipitation chances. The aforementioned upper wave off the Pacific Northwest coast this morning digs further southeast into the high Plains Saturday night and passes though the region into Monday. There remain to be notable differences in smaller-scale features with the mean trough, bringing some variation in timing of the higher precipitation chances, though at least significant high cloud if not precipitation should spread across the bulk of eastern Kansas by midday Sunday, and in concert with modest low- level southerly flow behind the ridge, keep high instability from materializing. Shear values likely remain modest, thus severe weather concerns are low. Precipitable water values do rise to the 1.5 to near 2-inch range supporting common storm total amounts from 0.5 to 1.5 inches by Monday afternoon. Onset of precip and cloud brings considerable uncertain on Sunday highs though expect at least somewhat cooler values Sunday and especially Monday. A modified Pacific airmass builds in behind the wave for a still mild middle of the week. The next upper wave looks to enter the central CONUS from the northwest late in the week. Will go ahead with small precipitation chances but uncertainty in the timing and strength of this wave is high. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018 Patchy fog and SCT to BKN stratus MVFR ceilings may develop at the TAF sites through 14Z. MHK may see visibilities of less than 1 mile in the patchy fog with VLIFR sailings due to the fog depth. The fog and stratus ceilings should dissipate after 14Z. There may be another chance for patchy fog to develop around or at the terminals late Tonight through 14Z SAT. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gargan LONG TERM...65 AVIATION...Gargan  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 130048 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 848 PM EDT Sun Aug 12 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cut off upper low over Lake Erie will slowly lift east across Pennsylvania Monday and Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure will build into the region on Wednesday, followed by the arrival of a weak cold front late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Heavy rain showers are slowly decresing in intensity this evening. As conditions begin to improve, have allowed FLS and FFW products to expire upon coordination with emergency officials. While the area of heavy caused issues this evening, about 95% of the forecast area enjoyed pleasant and dry conditions. Lift in the favored left exit region of potent upper jet streak will keep slgt chc showers going overnight over the eastern half of the state. Short term, high res HRRR shows another bout of heavy rain over Schuylkill county overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Upper low becomes centered over central PA on Monday. With cool air aloft, combined with diurnal heating and sufficient low level and deep layer moisture, we should see a marked increase in diurnally- driven convection Monday afternoon. Keeping POPs in the likely to categorical ranges for Monday afternoon and evening as a result. Some discussion of locally heavy rainfall threat and while eastern areas appear more prone based on synoptic setup and recent heavy rainfall, want to hold off on any headline issuance to better place a Watch box in the 24 to 30 hour timeframe. The plume of anomalous pwats remain well east of Pa, so the flash flood risk is on the lower side for central and western PA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Not much signal for any large pattern change. Looking at a tendency to semi-phase 3 bundles of energy with time. New 12Z GFS trending toward recent runs of the EC. Same trends all season. Anyway, not a lot of change. For next Sunday, went with mainly the superblend, but lower POPS. Otherwise mainly small changes. Still looking at showers and storms Monday night into Tuesday evening. I did up POPS some across the south central areas Monday night, given POPs, location of the upper lvl low, trends this wet summer season, and to fit in better with others. Wednesday into Thursday still look mainly dry, as weak ridging occurs over western PA. There could be a shower across the far northwest late Wednesday into Thursday morning. Showers and storms more likely late Thursday evening into Friday, as warm advection sets up. Weak cold front moves across the region late Friday, so I still think Saturday will be mainly dry. For Sunday, highest chc of showers and storms looks to be across the south, based on the 00Z EC and comparison of recent runs of several models. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions generally prevail across central PA this evening. While there are some pretty heavy showers and thunderstorms around likely reducing visibilities likely into the IFR range, these have avoided TAF locations. Light winds and low level moisture expected to produce widespread fog and low stratus overnight at most airfields. Problem for Monday is how quickly and efficiently these lower clouds and fog will dissipate, with very light wind flow. Short term guidance suggests that MVFR fog could prevail in the east much of the day. Based on guidance and grids (official forecast) have bumped up all TAFs to include VCSH during the afternoon, with categorical SHRA in KMDT and KLNS in the afternoon. For Monday, convection expected to be more widespread that Sunday. .Outlook... Mon-Tue...AM cig/vsby restrictions likely with slow improvement. Additionally, SHRA/TSRA with associated restrictions especially in the afternoon. Wed...AM fog. Otherwise no six wx. Thu-Fri...AM fog. Otherwise, scattered showers/tstms will bring local restrictions. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/Martin NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Tyburski SHORT TERM...DeVoir LONG TERM...Martin AVIATION...Jung  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KSHV 101237 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 737 AM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018 .AVIATION... For the ArkLaTex, VFR attm. MVFR/vsby coming w/ TS dvlpmt on outflows and a weak stationary front over NE TX/S AR. This front will sink a bit more S and turn to lift back slowly N this wknd. VCTS in many sites now with tempo for elevated TS W of KTYR movg E at 10KT. It appears to be backbuilding attm, but should progress faster E w/ heating. Sfc winds will be SW bcmg W/NW along I-20. Climb winds and FLs are W 10-30KT. Gusty winds and heavy down pours will be tempoed throughout the next cycle or few. Little change over the wknd with front is vicinity for days. /24/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 500 AM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018/ SHORT TERM.../Friday through Saturday/ Mid clouds are spreading from TX into LA with partly cloudy skies elsewhere over our North with some lower heights and likely surface based boundary interaction. Air temps are all over the place with lower 70s North and mostly mid to upper 70s and even 80 or above in a couple of spots. Our surface winds are light S/SW or calm and aloft have been veering slightly from SW overnight to W/SW at this time. Last night's sounding was down a bit to 1.84 PWAT. Our 88D Doppler Radar is busy busy for South Arkansas with some of the heaviest activity at present and we are just beginning to see a few blips of moderate rainfall over E TX. Farther West, TS coverage is more pronounced in central TX and generally moving this way. The HRRR all night has shown nothing N of I-20. Hmmm..., but does show the central TX activity edging into our W corner this afternoon. So, where else to look but the radar with trends increasing activity, albeit a little later than the last several nights. We just can't seem to make this mid level moisture work for all of our areas as the main upper low over the boot heel of MO is moving East. However, there are still a few outflow boundaries lingering and then there is the weak front over NE TX/SE OK/W AR and this frontal boundary may work a little farther South before turning around to lift out this weekend. Overall, we are on track for our coolest day(s) and most rainfall as has been advertised all week. Hopefully so, as this will all unravel over the weekend with hot and dry not far away. The WPC day one QPF is better S of I-20 today and areawide on Saturday, but still nothing to write home about in this drought of ours. Due to the slow movement of this activity it is possible to see some better numbers in the bucket and minor flooding is really what most of us need except S AR where yesterday the rain came down well at this time of day. The WPC does have a marginal risk for excessive rainfall along and S of I-20 and then areawide tomorrow. SPC is looking at a general line and of course this time of year if you can get above average heat, that rain cooled air can pack a punch, per yesterdays TS in Bossier parish. So it is likely to remain isolated threat wise for any more damaging wind with highs around 90 today and tomorrow. /24/ LONG TERM.../Saturday night through Thursday/The upper level low will continue to retrograde over Texas Saturday night and Sunday, keeping southwesterly flow aloft over the ArkLaTex. As a result, the threat of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the remainder of the weekend. This low will continue drifting to the the west for the first part of the work week. As it does, the threat of showers and thunderstorms will gradually shift to primarily northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma. Temperatures will also gradually warm through the first part of the work week, with temperatures returning back to normal ranges by Tuesday for most areas. As this low drifts northward and finally lifts out of the region, the threat of showers and thunderstorms could return to our far northern areas for Wednesday. Another disturbance may bring a better chance of showers to the region on Thursday, with temperatures remaining near normal. Palmer && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 89 74 90 73 / 50 40 50 30 MLU 89 73 90 73 / 50 30 40 20 DEQ 92 69 89 70 / 20 20 40 20 TXK 90 71 89 72 / 30 30 50 30 ELD 90 70 91 72 / 30 20 40 30 TYR 90 72 90 71 / 60 40 60 40 GGG 89 73 89 73 / 50 40 60 40 LFK 89 73 90 74 / 60 40 60 40 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 24/28  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMPX 210405 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1105 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018 Isolated showers are redeveloping this afternoon. Clearing skies and temperatures rising into the upper 70s/low 80s are building instability. Could see some of these showers develop into thunderstorms through early evening before losing instability around sunset. So far, lightning activity has been confined to northern Minnesota. Coverage is not expected to be particularly widespread, perhaps 30-40 percent. Widespread smoke across northwestern Minnesota associated with wildfires over southern Canada will drift south tonight. Visibilities range from 2 to 5 miles. The RAP smoke model maintains this plume overnight into southwest Minnesota, which seems reasonable with an inversion trapping the smoke near the surface and continued northerly flow. The MPCA has posted an Air Quality Alert for northwest and portions of west central/central Minnesota through mid morning Saturday before better mixing takes over. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018 Overall, models continue to support a cooling trend after the middle of next week as the mean wind in the boundary layer contributes to a more Canadian air mass regime. For the ladder part of the weekend, and into early next week, the anomalous upper low, which is currently located across the western Great Lakes, will drift southward and weaken over the next few days. This will keep deep tropical moisture limited to the far south in the extended period. The mean upper flow will also become stronger and westerly early next week as a storm system moves across southern Canada. Although PWATs do increase slightly as another weak cold front moves across the region Monday, most of the energy with this system will remain in Canada. Thus, any rainfall will be isolated or scattered in nature and no robust updrafts for strong storms. A more potent short wave, and a stronger jet streak, will move across the Upper Midwest the middle of next week. Instability will remain weak as another front passes through the region. However, with better jet energy, any thunderstorms could be capable of producing strong wind gusts. The end of next week can be characterized as cooler than normal as the mean upper flow remains northwest. This will likely mean highs near 80 and lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1104 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018 Main concern now is how extensive does stratus get tonight. Beginning to see the first signs of this stratus showing up to the northeast of Mille Lacs. RAP/HRRR continue to show this stratus working toward southwest MN. NAM soundings are certainly moist in the low levels, but that moisture is relatively shallow, so it's hard to say how widespread the stratus will become. At either rate, LAV continues to show best IFR/MVFR probs at AXN/STC/RWF, though MSP and MKT could get in on the fun as well. No rain Saturday, with morning stratus slowly lifting through the morning. Looks like cloudiest skies will be over MN, with mainly sunny skies over WI. KMSP...Still potential for 1k to 1.5k ft cigs to impact the airport between 10z and 16z Sat morning. Will have to watch how stratus to the northeast of Mille Lacs Lake evolves. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sun...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts. Mon...VFR. Slight chc -TSRA. Wind vrbl becoming NW 5-10 kts. Tue...VFR. Wind W 5 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF LONG TERM...JLT AVIATION...MPG  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KEAX 141849 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 149 PM CDT Sat Jul 14 2018 .Discussion... Issued at 148 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2018 The main concern today will be the approaching MCV that formed from a MCS over central KS last night. This feature has developed a nice mesoscale low all the way through the atmosphere and is very evident on satellite and radar products. So far the CAMs have done a good job initializing this feature and have tracked it well today. HRRR/RAP/NAM3km all have this feature develop convection over the KS/MO border, mainly over the KC Metro area early this afternoon. Two current thunderstorms over Johnson CO KS verify this solution and provide some confidence in utilizing the CAMs for timing and intensity of the storms. Severe weather chances remain low with a lack of proper shear, but the MCV has altered the mesoscale environment enough to provide 15-20kts of effective shear. This combined with MLCAPE of near 2000 J/kg, PWAT values near 2", warm cloud thickness of 13kft, and an MBE vector of 2kts all point to possible flash flooding over impervious surfaces, and possible flooding over other areas if training storms develop. The main concern is the KC Metro area as the remainder of the area has very high flash flood guidance of nearly 3"/hour and 4"/3 hour due to how dry it has been. This flooding threat will mainly occur from 2 to 7pm CDT as the MCV pushes through. This feature will also help enhance storms along a surface convergent boundary from KC to near Macon CO, as seen on satellite and radar. Flooding could become an issue if training storms occur for more than 3 hours, but otherwise the area should be able to take a good amount of rain. As this MCV moves east cloud will clear tonight creating the possibility of patchy dense fog for areas that end up with a saturated surface tonight. This feature also looks to wash out the diffuse frontal boundary that was expected to form up precipitation overnight and into Sunday, so most PoP mentions have been taken out for tomorrow. This lack of cloud coverage and precip will mean the temperatures will also be higher than expected, with highs in the mid 90s and HI values near 100 tomorrow now expected. Surface high pressure will build into the area Monday shifting winds to the north. This will create convergence over our southern CWA that will interact with higher dewpoints and spark of some scattered showers in the afternoon. As the high pressure moves east it will allow some cooler, normal for this time of year, temperatures to make their way into the area with highs only in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the lower 60s. This nice weather Tuesday will be short lived as an upper level shortwave pushes through the central plains and helps deepen a surface low pressure over Kansas that will enhance showers and storms along the isentropic accent over eastern KS and western MO Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will remain relatively cool with highs in the mid 80s, so this cooler, wetter pattern may be very welcomed by most. This quasi-stationary boundary will stall over our area through early Thursday providing much needed widespread rainfall over our area with forecasted rainfall totals up to 1". Upper level ridging will start to build into the plains on Friday indicating the abnormally high temperatures will return going into next weekend. && .Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1216 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2018 The main hazard this period will be a complex of thunderstorms that will push through the KC Metro area this afternoon, just south of KSTJ. These storms are likely to have heavy rain and visibilities reduced to MVFR or even IFR at times. Winds will remain light and variable, outside of thunderstorms, throughout the period. These light winds in combination with clear skies and a wet ground will set up possible visibility issues in fog tomorrow morning. Currently only MVFR visibilities have been added to the TAFs, but if the area gets a solid amount of rain and the ground is wet then visibility may drop into the IFR range in future forecasts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ Discussion...Barham Aviation...Barham  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KPBZ 281458 AAA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1058 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Shower chances will diminish as high pressure builds overhead. High pressure will then maintain hot and dry conditions through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Scattered showers will continue in northwest flow aloft for a few more hours until the shortwave trough departs to the east and is replaced with building high pressure. Dry air aloft will be mixed down even with modest surface heating, allowing for the clouds to dissipate as well. This should lend to overall improvement for the latter half of the day with temperatures only a touch below seasonal averages. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... A well-advertised pattern transition will begin in ernest on Friday. A strong upper ridge will build in from the west, bringing with it a much warmer airmass. Temperatures Friday will approach 90 and surpass that mark on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The H5 ridge center will cross the region Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures on Sunday will again push into the 90s across most of the area. Latest ensemble data is showing main ridge axis drifting just east of the region on Monday, but then retrograding westward and expanding Tuesday and Wednesday. If this ridge evolution comes to fruition, it would be very difficult to get much precipitation with such strong subsidence. This will also keep temperatures well above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A few showers will continue ahead of surface troughing FKL-DUJ, but otherwise the main story will be widespread MVFR ceilings (locally LIFR from FKL-DUJ and points north) that will persist an unusually long time for late June. Cloud thickness per GOES-16 imagery suggests that even strong late June sun will take a good number of hours for stratus to lift and ultimately mix out. Model guidance is quite variant on when this will occur, but given Lake Erie fetch and cyclonic low level flow present, will lean toward the conservative side which makes the most significant ceiling improvements during the mid afternoon. Rapid clearing should occur during the 18-00Z time frame, but calm winds and a moist boundary layer, especially after recent heavy rainfall, gives moderate to high confidence in MVFR to IFR visibility restrictions (fog) late tonight. OUTLOOK... Smooth conditions and unlimited visibility/ceilings expected once fog burns off Friday, continuing through Monday, with sprawling heat ridge in place. Some isolated restrictions possible late Monday across western terminals due to afternoon thunderstorms. Bookbinder && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KPBZ 281149 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 749 AM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Mix of clouds and sun with a few scattered morning showers. Showers will end by this afternoon and clouds will decrease. Dry, hot weather for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Models are advertising scattered showers continuing through much of the morning hours in the northwest flow aloft. The coverage, which is mainly over the eastern half of the region, may be overdone a bit, as heights rises will ensue by late morning. Will still leave in a mention of scattered showers through parts of the area during the morning hours. Clouds will slowly decrease from west to east during the morning hours. Models soundings are indicating that a thin layer of moisture will hold on over the eastern half of the region through the afternoon hours. This layer of moisture is not evacuated until strong height rises commence later in the afternoon and mid-level winds slowly shift to the north. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... A well-advertised pattern transition will begin in ernest on Friday. A strong upper ridge will build in from the west, bringing with it a much warmer airmass. Temperatures Friday will approach 90 and surpass that mark on Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The H5 ridge center will cross the region Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures on Sunday will again push into the 90s across most of the area. Latest ensemble data is showing main ridge axis drifting just east of the region on Monday, but then retrograding westward and expanding Tuesday and Wednesday. If this ridge evolution comes to fruition, it would be very difficult to get much precipitation with such strong subsidence. This will also keep temperatures well above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Unusual fall-like weather pattern over the area today in advance of heat ridge that will dominate the region over the weekend. Cool, moist post-frontal airmass has overspread the area overnight with a pronounced cross-Lake Erie fetch and a lingering surface trough aiding in the development of widespread low stratus. A few showers will continue ahead of surface troughing FKL-DUJ, but otherwise the main story will be widespread MVFR ceilings (locally LIFR from FKL-DUJ and points north) that will persist an unusually long time for late June. A second area of IFR ceilings along the southern and western periphery of the cloud shield is expected to persist this morning as well ZZV-MGW. Cloud thickness per GOES-16 imagery suggests that even strong late June sun will take a good number of hours for stratus to lift and ultimately mix out. Model guidance is quite variant on when this will occur, but given Lake Erie fetch and cyclonic low level flow present, will lean toward the conservative side which makes the most significant ceiling improvements during the mid afternoon. Rapid clearing should occur during the 18-00Z time frame, but calm winds and a moist boundary layer, especially after recent heavy rainfall, gives moderate to high confidence in MVFR to IFR visibility restrictions (fog) late tonight. OUTLOOK... Smooth conditions and unlimited visibility/ceilings expected once fog burns off Friday, continuing through Monday, with sprawling heat ridge in place. Some isolated restrictions possible late Monday across western terminals due to afternoon thunderstorms. Bookbinder && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 210004 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 804 PM EDT Wed Jun 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A wavy front over the area will settle just south of the state tonight. After a dry and pleasant Thursday, rounds of showers and thunderstorms will return Friday into the weekend as warm air moves back up into the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Rain has tapered off for the moment over the Laurels, but additional storms over PIT are headed right for them. Will continue to run the FFA and hold the FLW and FLS until after midnight. Central Somerset County has had 3-5 inches of rain with lots of flooding reports. The flooding is not as noticeable over southern Somerset County for the time being, but with the additional TSRA incoming very shortly, that may change. CAMs keep some precip over these locations until 10Z. Scattered showers continue over the rest of the area even up into the far north. Must allow for these for the next few hours. Clouds and high dewpoints will keep temps up quite a bit through the night. Dewpoints may lower slightly in the north and skies will show some breaks in the clouds as wind becomes slightly northerly. Temp forecast toughest there, where the amount of both clearing and drying is in question. Will hold onto current numbers for the time being. If a trend is evident there later, adjustments may be necessary. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Wavy frontal boundary should sink far enough south to bring fair and pleasant conditions on Thursday. The morning will be cloudy with areas of fog central and south, but a nice afternoon is on tap with lower humidity and increasing sunshine. Highs will range from the low to mid 40s north to the lower 80s south. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Frontal system returns Friday with increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. This will lead to a trough over the area for the weekend and pops in the forecast. Heights rise early next week and a much more summerlike weather pattern is expected by the middle of next week and later. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Warm front and wave of low pressure moving from the Ohio Valley east along the Mason-Dixon line will produce widespread MVFR through this afternoon, with areas of IFR Cigs in rain of varying intensity along with scattered thunderstorms. Showers diminish through Wed night, but restrictions will remain in place into early Thu. .Outlook... Thu...Early AM rain/cig and vsby reductions possible - mainly across the SE half of Pa. Fri...PM showers/cig reductions possible central mountains. Sat-Sun...AM showers/cig reductions possible. Sct PM tsra impacts possible. Mon...Fair. && .CLIMATE... Astronomical summer begins Thursday, June 21st at 607 AM. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ033>036. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl LONG TERM...Ross/Steinbugl AVIATION...DeVoir/Gartner/RXR CLIMATE...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 071205 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 405 AM AKDT Thu Jun 7 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...Thunderstorms and showers from range to range and just inland to the AlCan Border. Most active areas will be Fortymile Country, and out west in the Middle Yukon Valley. Relative Humidity values slightly higher today. Strong pressure gradient continues over the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait with Gale Warning and Small Craft Advisories issued. In the western interior/inland areas expect scattered thunderstorms and showers to develop again today. On the Arctic Coast the stratus has lifted a bit, but remains over the area, and visibilities have improved over the last few days. Kuparuk River remains high with Flood Advisory in effect, and expect that may continue through the weekend. Models continue to build a strong winter like storm near the North Pole that will dive south to the Arctic Coast and Brooks Range Saturday night. Several inches of snow may fall in the Eastern Brooks Range and on the Eastern Arctic Coast, along with strong winds and unseasonably cooler temperatures. Models...07/00Z solutions are in fair agreement through 54 hours with the weak pattern aloft. They improve through 120 hours and are in good agreement, especially with dropping the low from the North Pole over the Beaufort Sea by Sunday morning. The ECMWF and GFS diverge quite a bit after that with the orientation of the features, so for the extended periods used a blend leaning toward the ECMWF. 07/00Z surface solutions initialized well, and are in pretty good agreement through the weekend. Lifted Indicies as low as -7 today and -6 Friday in the Middle Yukon River Valley, with CAPE values to 500 J/kg. Precipitable Water values of 0.30 to 0.95 inch again today with the highest values in the Middle Yukon River Valley. Will keep using the same blend as the last few days, equal blend of solutions and the current database, as that has worked out fairly well. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Broad ridging continues over most of the state with a 553 dam center near Wrangel Island and a ridge axis extending east over the MacKenzie Bay, and another extending southeast over Kotzebue Sound and the Upper Kuskokwim Valley. A trough has developed over the AlCan and Yukon Territory between a 530 dam low high in the Canadian Arctic, and a 526 dam low in the Northeast Pacific. A trough also extends northwest from the low in the Northeast Pacific to a 546 dam low over the Southwest mainland, to a 546 dam low over St Lawrence Island, to a 544 dam low over Chukotka. By Friday morning, a large col will cover most of mainland Alaska with a trough over the AlCan border and ridging pushing west over the Yukon Territory, over the Northwest mainland, and north over the Alaska Peninsula. And by Saturday morning, the pattern remains similar. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm pushes south to the Brooks range tonight and holds in the area through Saturday, then dives south into the Interior and by Monday morning it will lie from Chicken to Fairbanks to Tanana to Ambler to Point Lay with the -10C isotherm over the Central and Eastern Arctic Coast and the Arctic Plains. Surface...High pressure persists over the Arctic with a 1024 mb center 400 nm north of Wainwright with high pressure pushing south over the Arctic Plains and Central Brooks Range. Broad area of low pressure around the Thermal Trough over mainland Alaska. Thermal trough remains along the north slopes of the Alaska Range from the Kuskokwim Valley to the Upper Tanana Valley with a secondary branch extending from the Middle Tanana Valley to the Noatak Valley. The Thermal Trough will be stationary today, then lift north tonight to lie from Eagle to Fairbanks to Teller by Friday morning. While the ridging over the Arctic will start being squeezed out as a 992 mb low moves over the North Pole into the high Arctic. By Saturday morning the Thermal Trough will be over the Upper Yukon Flats and the high pressure over the Arctic will be pushed south over the Plains as it continue to be squeezed out with the low in the high Arctic moving to 600 nm north of Demarcation Point. A weather front will come sweeping southeast across the Arctic Friday night to the Central Arctic Coast by Saturday afternoon, and the Eastern Arctic Coast by Saturday night. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Sounds like a broken record, but the stratus and fog will continue through the day over most coastal area. The 07/1000Z GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR Probability products has not changed significantly in at least 10 days and continues to indicate MVFR/IFR conditions over most of the coastal areas. Observations in the coastal areas match up well with the area indicated, and show that ceilings have lifted to 400 to 900 foot range today. More isolated thunderstorms and showers in the Brooks Range today, but not as active as the last few days. Big changes on the way this weekend as a strong storm moves to the coast Saturday afternoon through Monday and could drop up to 8 inches of snow in the Brooks Range, and around 2 inches to the remainder of the area east of Wainwright.Temperatures will cool through the weekend with lows on the coast and in the Eastern Brooks Range falling into the 20s starting Saturday. Highs will be in the 30s on the coast, falling to the lower 30s this weekend. Inland areas will also see cooler temperatures, with lows falling into the upper 30s to lower 40s, and highs in the 40s and 50s. Northeast to east winds 5 to 15 mph will turn from the north, then west Saturday increasing to 15 to 35 mph with the strongest winds along the coast east of Point Barrow. Inland winds will be 5 to 15 mph for most areas. Flood Advisory continues for the Kuparuk River, but with cooler temperatures runoff will slow and river levels are expected to slowly fall through the weekend. West Coast and Western Interior...Most activity will be inland with Thunderstorms and showers developing through the day. Thunderstorms may produce heavy downpours, small hail, and gusty winds to 35 mph again today. Weak offshore flow continues south of the Bering Strait, so expect Sea Breeze development in the coastal zone (within 5 miles of the coast) during the afternoon hours, then a return to offshore flow overnight. Tight pressure gradient remains over the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait with gusty winds to 40 mph on the Outer Capes. Generally light winds inland with winds to 15 mph on the coast. Temperatures similar today to yesterday in most areas, then cool a couple degrees for Thursday. Central and Eastern Interior...More thunderstorm activity today with more activity in the Southeastern Interior than what was out there yesterday with scattered thunderstorms. The Central Interior and Upper Yukon Flats will see just isolated activity. Heavy downpours with up to 0.25 inch of rainfall, small hail generally less than 0.50 inch, and gusty winds to 35 mph may accompany the strongest thunderstorms. Thermal trough remains over the Southern Interior with generally light winds across the Interior. Temperatures a couple degrees cooler today, and cooling through the weekend. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .Fire Weather...Another round of thunderstorms and showers across the interior, with about the same amount of activity. Areas of highest activity will be the Middle Yukon and Upper Kuskokwim Valleys, and the Fortymile Country, but isolated activity can be expected from range to range. Thunderstorms will continue to be of the wet variety with Precipitable Water values from 0.25 to 0.95 inch. Lightning activity Tuesday and Wednesday was around 7500 strikes, expect today will be similar. Temperatures in the 70s for most interior/inland locations, but a couple degrees cooler than the Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds generally less than 15 mph. Relative humidity values mainly in the 30s as they rise a little over the next few days. Relative Humidity recovery will continue to be good with maximum values above 60 percent. For the latest Fire Weather information go to www.weather.gov/arh/fire. && .Hydrology...Kuparuk River near Deadhorse running near flood stage, but currently falling. The Colville was reported as running free of ice Wednesday. Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Kuparuk. Melting and runoff are slowing as temperatures cool. For the latest breakup and flooding information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Models showing better agreement on a strong cold front moving to the Central and Eastern Arctic Coast, and the Eastern Brooks Range Sunday with winter like temperatures and weather from Wainwright east over most of the Arctic and Brooks Range. Potential for heavy snow as models indicate up to 8 inches of snow in the Eastern Brooks Range Sunday into Monday with around 2 inches in the coastal areas. In the Interior expect some showers moving southeast across the Eastern Interior Sunday night with Isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures in the Arctic will be steady in the 20s to lower 30s Sunday and Monday, then warm slowly. In the interior expect highs in the 60s with lows in the 40s. In a few locations that are traditional cold spots, like Birch Creek, Upper Salcha, Circle Hot Springs, and Central, temperatures may fall into the lower 30s. The West Coast and Western Interior will be relatively quiet as high pressure builds southeast over the area. Stratus may develop in the Chukchi Sea and Kotzebue Sound, elsewhere offshore flow will keep conditions partly cloudy. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Advisory for portion of AKZ203. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ230. Gale Warning for PKZ225. && $$ SDB JUN 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 061208 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 408 AM AKDT Wed Jun 6 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...Not much change for the short term, thunderstorm coverage will again be range to range, and just inland to the AlCan Border. Area of highest activity will extend from the Upper Tanana Valley south of Fairbanks along the Western Alaska Range, and most of the Western Interior areas. Pressure gradient has tighten up a bit east of Arctic Village and northeast of Fort Yukon today with winds around 15 mph and near Red Flag conditions in the afternoon. Relative Humidity values slightly lower today, but starting to rise Thursday. Pressure gradient has also tightened over the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait with Small Craft Advisories issued. In the western interior/inland areas expect thunderstorms and showers to develop again today. On the Arctic Coast river breakup, and the stratus and fog, continue to be the biggest issues, and see no change in that through at least Friday. There is a significant winter like storm that will be moving to the Arctic Coast and Brooks Range Saturday night. Models...06/00Z solutions are in good agreement through 72 hours before they start diverging, but they still show similar tendencies through 132 hours before they jump all over in the Arctic. 06/00Z surface solutions initialized well against the 06/06Z analysis with similar pressures and locations of the major features, including the Thermal Trough, and continue in good agreement through around 60 hours before diverging. Lifted Indicies range to around -4, and CAPE values to 400 J/kg. Precipitable Water values of 0.30 to 0.85 inch with the highest values in the Middle Yukon River Valley. Going to use an equal blend of solutions and the current database for most elements to maintain continuity. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Broad ridging continues over most of the state with a 554 dam center 200 nm north of Wainwright and a ridge axis extending southeast over Eagle into the Yukon Territory. A band of lower heights lies to the south of the state extending from a 551 dam low over northern Kamchatka, to a 544 dam low 150 nm north of Shemya to a 527 dam low 600 nm south of Seward, then northeast over the Panhandle. A 554 dam high has moved over the northern Bering Sea Coast with a 553 dam center over St Matthew Island. A 547 dam low will develop over Norton Sound this morning, then swing west over St Lawrence Island By Thursday morning with a trough extending southeast to the low in the Northeast Pacific. Short waves will continue to move west over the Alaska Range, and may extend north into the Southern Interior, but timing the waves remains very difficult. By Thursday morning the ridging weakens as troughing develops over the AlCan Border with a 544 dam low near Eagle and trough extending north to a 531 dam low high in the Canadian Archipelago. By Friday morning a large col will develop over the state with weak troughing extending from weak troughing over the Beaufort Sea over the AlCan Border to a 532 dam low in the Northeast Pacific, and weak ridging extending the Siberian Arctic near the Dateline over the West Coast to ridging over the North Pacific. At 850 hpa...Temperatures in the forecast area are all above 0C today with the +10C isotherm pushing west over the Middle Yukon And Upper Kuskokwim River Valleys. By Thursday the 0C isotherm will be pushed south over the Arctic Plains and most of the Central and Eastern Arctic Coast, while the +10C isotherm will shift a bit north as it pushes northwest into the Interior Seward Peninsula. Much colder temperatures will dive south over the Arctic Coast, Brooks Range, and into the Central and Eastern Interior this weekend. Surface...High pressure remains over the Arctic with a 1030 mb center near 80N and the Dateline and ridging extending southeast over the Arctic Plains and Central Brooks Range. Broad area of low pressure around the Thermal Trough over mainland Alaska. Thermal trough remains along the north slopes of the Alaska Range from the Kuskokwim Valley to the Upper Tanana Valley with a secondary branch extending from the Middle Tanana Valley to the Noatak Valley. Not much change through Thursday morning, but the high will move to 400 nm north of Point Barrow at 1024 mb, and the pressure gradient will tighten up over the Brooks Range, and the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait. 987 mb low remains in the Northeast Pacific. By Friday morning, not much change, but the high moves to 200 nm north of Point Barrow at 1025 mb, and a 1003 mb low will move over the Seward Peninsula enhancing the already compressed pressure gradient over the Chukchi Sea. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus and fog continues to be the biggest issue along the coast. Expect some isolated thunderstorms and showers in the Brooks Range. Not seeing much change to that scenario through Friday. Temperatures near the coast continue to be cool with temperatures in the 30s, and as you move inland temperatures will be much warmer. Temperatures will start cooling later today as cooler air aloft moves south over the Coast and Plains. Flood Advisories continue for the Colville and Kuparuk Rivers. The 06/1130Z GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR Probability products still have not changed significantly in at least 10 days. Visible Satellite imagery shows more stratus moving west over the coast. Observations in the coastal areas match up well with the area indicated and show ceilings in the 200 to 700 foot range. Winter like weather system will move to the Central and Eastern Arctic Coast and Brooks Range Saturday night. West Coast and Western Interior...Another day with much of the activity inland with Thunderstorms and showers developing through the day. No change expect in the intensity of the thunderstorms as heavy downpours with up to 0.50 inch of rainfall, small hail generally less than 0.50 inch, and gusty winds to 35 mph. Weak offshore flow south of the Bering Strait, so expect Sea Breeze development in the coastal zone (within 10 miles of the coast) during the afternoon hours, with a return to offshore flow overnight. Pressure gradient has tightened over the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait with winds to 30 mph. Temperatures in the inland areas rising into the 70s today while coastal areas will range from the lower 40s on the Outer Capes and St Lawrence Island to the mid 60s on the Norton Sound Coast. Central and Eastern Interior...Another round of thunderstorm and shower activity, but not as intense as Tuesday. Thunderstorm activity will be confined to the Southern Interior, mainly south of Fairbanks. Thunderstorm development mainly after noon, with some lingering into the early morning hours. Heavy downpours with up to 0.25 inch of rainfall, small hail generally less than 0.50 inch, and gusty winds to 35 mph may accompany the strongest thunderstorms. Thermal trough remains over the Southern Interior with generally light winds south of the Yukon River. Winds to around 15 mph east of Arctic Village, and northeast of Fort Yukon today. Temperatures a couple degrees cooler today and Thursday. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .Fire Weather...Widespread isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity from range to range, and from just inland on the West Coast to the AlCan Border continues. Thunderstorms will continue to be of the wet variety with Precipitable Water values from 0.25 to 0.95 inch. Lightning activity Tuesday was double Mondays, but expect it will fall back to the Monday level of around 2500 strikes today. Area of highest activity will extend from the Upper Tanana Valley south of Fairbanks along the Western Alaska Range, and most of the Western Interior areas. Temperatures in the 70s for most interior/inland locations. Winds less than 15 mph with the exception of the area east of Arctic Village, and northeast of Fort Yukon where winds will be around 15 mph with near Red Flag conditions during the afternoon hours today and Thursday. Relative humidity values falling into the 20s to lower 30s again today with a few teen values in the Tanana Valley, and the Upper Yukon Flats. Relative Humidity recovery will continue to be good with maximum values above 60 percent. For the latest Fire Weather information go to www.weather.gov/arh/fire. && .Hydrology...Rivers of concern at this time continue to be the Colville, and Kuparuk with the Kuparuk running near flood stage, but currently falling. The Colville has been reported to be falling with ice flowing through, but a jam can occur at any time, so Flood Advisories remain in place for both rivers. Melting and runoff will slow the remainder of the week as temperatures cool. For the latest breakup and flooding information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Extended solutions performing poorly, but there is agreement on a strong cold front moving to the Central and Eastern Arctic Coast Sunday with winter like temperatures and weather from Wainwright east over most of the Arctic and Brooks Range. Potential for heavy snow with 4 to 6 inches of snow Sunday morning through Monday afternoon with temperatures in the 20s to lower 30s, and winds turning from the northwest to north at 15 to 30 mph. South of the Brooks Range, cold air will dive into the Central and Eastern Interior, and Sunday night into Wednesday temperatures north of Fairbanks will be significantly cooler with highs in the 50s, and lows in some of the low lying areas falling to around freezing. Thunderstorms and showers will accompany the front as it moves into the area, mainly from Fairbanks east. The West Coast and Western Interior will be relatively quiet as high pressure builds southeast over the area. Expect some stratus and fog in the Chukchi Sea and Kotzebue Sound, otherwise offshore flow will keep conditions partly cloudy. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Advisories for portions of AKZ203. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB JUN 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 051130 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 330 AM AKDT Tue Jun 5 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...Thunderstorm coverage will again be range to range, and just inland to the AlCan Border. The challenge will be figuring out where significant activity will occur. At this point it looks like a band of scattered thunderstorm activity will lie over zones 224, 223, 222, 221, 225, 227, as well as southern 216, 215, and 214. Also, a small area in northern 212, and east of Buckland in zone 210. Pressure gradient will tighten up a bit east of Arctic Village and northeast of Fort Yukon today with winds picking up to around 15 mph with near Red Flag Conditions developing in the afternoon. Relative Humidity values falling slightly the next couple days, then rising as the temperatures in the Interior fall a few degrees starting Thursday. Pretty quiet on the West Coast with offshore flow prevailing. On the Arctic Coast river breakup, and the stratus and fog continue to be the biggest issues, and see no change in that through at least Friday. Models...05/00Z solutions are in good agreement through 60 hours or so, then start diverging with the biggest difference showing up over the Arctic with a couple waves that will move southeast to the coast Friday and Saturday. Extended solutions continue to perform poorly. 05/00Z surface solutions initialized well against the 05/06Z analysis with similar pressures and locations of the major features, including the Thermal Trough. Stability indicies between the ranges and inland from the coast remain good for showers and thunderstorms with Lifted Index numbers generally zero to -6, and CAPE values to 500 J/kg. Precipitable Water values of 0.25 to 0.95 inch extend from the Upper Tanana Valley to the Middle Yukon Valley and Lower Yukon Delta the next couple day. Will use an equal blend of solution and the current database for most elements. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Broad ridging remains north of the Alaska Range with a 562 dam center near Wrangel Island, a 556 dam center over the Eastern Brooks Range, a 556 center 200 nm north of Demarcation Point. A band of lower high lies to the south extending from a 540 dam low near northern Kamchatka, to a 531 dam low 200 nm south of Sand Point, to a 537 dam low 400 nm south of Cordova, then northeast over the Panhandle. By Wednesday morning ridging persists, but weakens as the ridging gets pinched by a 546 dam low pushing south toward Wrangel Island, and a 551 dam low developing over Norton Sound. There is no significant change in the troughing to the south, and short waves moving in the flow around the low in the Northeast Pacific will move west over the Alaska Range, and may extend north into the Southern Interior, but timing the waves is very difficult. By Thursday morning the ridging weakens significantly as troughing develops over the AlCan Border with a 544 dam low near Eagle and trough extending north to high in the Canadian Archipelago. At 850 hpa...Temperatures in the forecast area are all above 0C today with the +10C isotherm pushing west over the Tanana Valley to Tanana, the Upper Yukon River Valley upstream of Circle, and the Alaska Range east of Denali. 0C isotherm will push south over the Central Arctic Coast by Wednesday afternoon, with the +10C isotherm pushing west over the Middle Yukon And Upper Kuskokwim River Valleys. By Thursday the 0C isotherm will push a bit further south over the Arctic Plains and most of the Central and Eastern Arctic Coast, while the =10C isotherm will shift a bit north as it pushes northwest into the Interior Seward Peninsula. Surface...High pressure remains over the Arctic with a 1028 mb center near 80N and the Dateline and ridging extending southeast over Banks Island. Broad area of low pressure around the Thermal Trough over mainland Alaska. Thermal trough lies along the north slopes of the Alaska Range from the Kuskokwim Valley to the Upper Tanana Valley with a secondary branch extending from the Middle Tanana Valley to the Noatak Valley. Through Thursday the only significant changes will be high pressure over the Arctic pressing south as a 1029 mb center moves to 400 nm north of Point Barrow by Thursday afternoon, and a 1003 mb low develops over Norton Sound. The pressure gradient will compress over the Brooks Range and southern Chukchi Sea producing gusty winds near the Brooks Range, and strong winds in the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...No significant changes next 24 to 48 hours as stratus and fog will persist over the same coastal areas. Inland areas will continue to see clearing, and isolated thunderstorms and showers can be expected in the Brooks Range during the afternoons and evenings. Temperatures near the coast continue to be cool with temperatures in the 30s. As you get inland 5 to 15 miles temperatures will be much warmer under mostly sunny conditions with highs in the 50s and 60s with lows generally above freezing. Cooler temperatures as the week continues, but inland areas will still be much warmer than the coastal areas. Flood Advisories continue for the Colville and Kuparuk Rivers. The 05/0930Z GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR Probability products have not changed significantly in at least 10 days. Observations in the coastal areas match up well with the area indicated. West Coast and Western Interior...Most activity will be inland from the coast and in the Interior areas with Thunderstorms and showers developing through the day. Heavy downpours with up to 0.50 inch of rainfall, small hail generally less than 0.50 inch, and gusty winds to 35 mph will accompany the strongest thunderstorms. Weak offshore flow will continue, expect Sea Breeze development in the coastal zone (within 10 miles of the coast) during the afternoon hours with a return to offshore flow overnight. Temperatures in the inland areas rising into the 70s today while coastal areas will range from the lower 40s on the Outer Capes and St Lawrence Island to the mid 60s on the Norton Sound Coast. Central and Eastern Interior...Scattered to isolated thunderstorms and showers again today with no change in sight the remainder of the week. Expect thunderstorm development mainly after noon, with some lingering into the early morning hours. Heavy downpours with up to 0.50 inch of rainfall, small hail generally less than 0.50 inch, and gusty winds to 35 mph will accompany the strongest thunderstorms. Thermal trough will persist over the Southern Interior with generally light winds south of the Yukon River. Winds increasing to around 15 mph east of Arctic Village, and northeast of Fort Yukon today and Wednesday. Temperatures a couple degrees warmer today, then a couple degrees cooler Wednesday and Thursday. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .Fire Weather...Widespread isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity from range to range, and from just inland on the West Coast to the AlCan Border. Thunderstorms will be wet with Precipitable Water values from 0.25 to 0.95 inch. Lightning activity through expected to be slightly higher today with a broad band of scattered thunderstorms south of a line from Eagle to Fort Yukon to Tanana to Holy Cross to Mountain Village. There is also a small area of enhanced activity expected east of Buckland in zone 210, and north of Shaktoolik in zone 212. Temperatures in the 70s for most interior locations. Winds less than 15 mph in most areas, except winds east of Arctic Village, and northeast of Fort Yukon increasing to around 15 mph with Near Red Flag conditions developing during the afternoon hours. Relative humidity values will fall into the 20s to lower 30s again today with a few teen values in the Tanana Valley, and the Upper Yukon Flats. Relative Humidity recovery will continue to be good with maximum values above 60 percent. For the latest Fire Weather information go to www.weather.gov/arh/fire. && .Hydrology...Rivers on the Arctic Plain and Coast continue through the breakup process. Flood advisories remain in place for the Colville River, and Kuparuk River as the risk for minor flooding continues. Temperatures 5 to 15 miles inland from the coast are much warmer than the coast with highs in the 50s to low 70s and lows generally above freezing. In the coastal zone, the temperatures will only warm into the upper 30s. Slightly cooler temperatures will push south over the Coast and Plains starting Wednesday, but will not slow the melting significantly through Thursday. For the latest breakup and flooding information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Model solutions continue to perform poorly in the extended periods, but thankfully we are in a reasonably predictable pattern in the interior. Expect a continuation of the thunderstorms and showers between the ranges from the Western Interior to the AlCan Border. A weather front will move to the Central and Eastern Arctic Coast Saturday bringing some relief from the low ceilings and fog, but brining some snow to areas east of Prudhoe Bay Saturday night and early Sunday. No significant change on the West Coast as weak offshore slow will persist. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Advisories for portions of AKZ203. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB JUN 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 041257 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 457 AM AKDT Mon Jun 4 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...No significant change in the coverage of thunderstorm activity of the last few days, and expect it will continue through the week over most of the forecast area. Thunderstorm activity will be increased from Minto east and south to the Alaska Range today. Pressure gradient will tighten up a bit over the Upper Yukon Flats and south slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range starting Tuesday with near Red Flag conditions. Relative Humidity values falling slightly the next couple days, then rising as the temperatures in the Interior fall a few degrees starting Thursday. Pretty quiet on the West Coast with offshore flow prevailing. On the Arctic Coast stratus and fog continue to be the biggest issue, and see no change in that for most areas through mid week. Models...Biggest problem is finding the shortwaves moving west across the Eastern and Central Interior this afternoon and evening that will enhance the thunderstorm activity. Otherwise, solutions are similar aloft and at the surface through Thursday. They continue to struggle in the extended periods. 04/00Z surface solutions initialized well against the 04/06Z analysis with similar pressures and locations of the major features, including the Thermal Trough. Stability indicies between the ranges and inland from the coast remain good for showers and thunderstorms with Lifted Index numbers generally zero or -6, and non-zero CAPE values over 500 J/kg. Not going to make a bunch of changes to the current forecast database. Will expand the area of showers to most locations between the ranges, and put in some scattered thunderstorms over the Central and Eastern Interior today, and Lower Yukon Delta and vicinity tomorrow. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Broad ridging remains over the state with a 562 dam center over Banks Island and ridge axis extending southwest to Kodiak Island, and another extending west over 75N. A 541 dam low persists off the Queen Charlotte Islands, and a broad areas of lower heights persists over the Bering Sea, and Chukchi Sea. Big picture, there are no significant differences by Tuesday morning as the ridging persists with a 560 center over the Canadian Archipelago, and a 561 dam center near the Dateline along 75N, and a 554 dam center over Eagle. Troughing will extend from the Western Bering Sea to the Northeast Pacific to Northern Alberta Canada. By Wednesday morning, ridging persists over the Arctic and mainland Alaska, but weakens a bit. Troughing persists in the same general area. But a 550 dam low will develop over the Seward Peninsula. Then by Thursday we start to see a little change as trough is developing over the AlCan Border with a 545 dam low over Eagle, and the ridging will shift north over the Brooks Range as it weakens and broad area of lower heights develops over the state. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm has pushed west of all but St Lawrence Island today. +10C pushing west over the Interior generally south of the Yukon River, and east of the Nulato hills. Area expands north into the Upper Koyukuk River Basin Tuesday, and southwest into the Lower Yukon Delta. Temperatures will cool a few degrees starting Thursday. Surface...High pressure remains over the Arctic with a 1033 mb center over the Northwest Territories and ridging extending over Banks Island, then west along 75N with a 1025 mb center developing 300 nm north of Point Barrow this morning. A 1008 mb low remains near the North Pole. High pressure remains over the northeast Pacific with a 1015 mb center in the Gulf of Alaska. Thermal trough over the southern Interior extends from the Upper Tanana Valley to Ruby, and southwest to the Lower Yukon Delta. Band of low pressure lies from a 997 mb low near Northern Kamchatka to a 997 mb low near Nikolski to a 1000 mb low in the Northeast Pacific to a 999 mb low over Alberta Canada. There is no significant change in the big picture pattern through Wednesday, but the features strengthen a bit over the Arctic, and mainland with the pressure gradient tightening up a bit over the Brooks Range, and generally north of the Yukon River. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus and fog, then more stratus and more fog in the coastal areas with clearing and much warmer temperatures when you get 5 to 15 miles inland from the coast. Flood Advisories continue for the Sagavanirktok and Kuparuk Rivers. Much warmer temperatures will continue inland and in the Brooks Range while the coastal areas will see temperatures fairly steady in the 30s. The 04/0900Z GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR Probability products have not changed significantly in at least 10 days with MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions, but they are indicating more LIFR conditions than what they were last week, and observations in the coastal areas match up well with the area indicated. West Coast and Western Interior...Isolated thunderstorms and showers in the inland areas, including the Central Seward Peninsula. Coastal areas will see periods of sun and clouds, while inland areas will be mostly sunny. With the only significant change through Wednesday being an increase in thunderstorms and showers in the Lower Yukon Delta and Upper Kuskokwim River Basin Tuesday. Temperatures in the inland areas will rise into the 70s today while coastal areas will range from the lower 40s on the Outer Capes and St Lawrence Island to the mid 60s on the Norton Sound Coast. Temperatures a couple degrees warmer on Tuesday, then cooling a couple degrees on Wednesday. Flow will continue to be offshore with winds generally less than 15 mph through Wednesday. Central and Eastern Interior...Scattered to isolated thunderstorms and showers today, with isolated thunderstorms and showers the remainder of the week. Expect thunderstorm development mainly after noon, with some lingering into the early morning hours. Heavy downpours with up to 1/2 inch of rainfall, and gusty winds will accompany most of the showers, with some producing small hail as well. Thermal trough will persist over the Southern Interior, with light winds today. Winds increasing to around 15 mph in the Upper Yukon Flats and along the south slopes of the Brooks Range Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures a couple degrees warmer today, then about the same on Tuesday before cooling a few degrees on Wednesday and Thursday. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .Fire Weather...Widespread isolated thunderstorms activity from the Brooks Range to the Alaska Range, and from the AlCan Border to the West Coast. No significant change in lightning activity through Tuesday. Some scattered thunderstorms from Minto East, and south to the Alaska Range during the afternoon and evening today. Scattered thunderstorms south of Kaltag and west of Minchumina Tuesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures in the 70s for most interior locations. Winds less than 15 mph today. Winds in the Upper Yukon Flats and along the south slopes or the Eastern Brooks Range will increase on Tuesday with winds near 15 mph gusting to 25 mph. Relative humidity values will fall into the 20s again today with a few teen values along the North Slopes of the Alaska Range. Relative Humidity will continue to be good with maximum values above 60 percent. Slightly drier Tuesday and Wednesday with values generally in the mid 20s to upper teens. Expect near Red Flag conditions in Fire Weather zones 218 and 220 from Tuesday through at least Friday during the late afternoon and early evening hours. For the latest Fire Weather information go to www.weather.gov/arh/fire. && .Hydrology...Breakup on the Arctic Plain and Coast continues. Flood advisories remain in place for the Sagavanirktok (Sag) River, and Kuparuk River as the risk for minor flooding continues. Temperatures 5 to 15 miles inland from the coast are much warmer that the coast with highs in the 50s to 60s and lows remaining above freezing. In the coastal zone, the temperatures are only warming into the upper 30s. Slightly cooler temperatures will move into the area midweek, but will not slow the melting significantly. For the latest breakup and flooding information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Well not much has changed concerning model performance. In general there will be ridging over the Western Arctic with troughing over the Eastern Arctic. Weak ridging extending from Canada to the Western Interior will dominate between the Ranges. A low will persist in the Northeast Pacific. A low will also persist over St Lawrence Island. In general we can expect seasonal weather in the interior with isolated to scattered showers during the afternoon and evening with some lingering to the early morning hours. On the Arctic Coast, stratus and fog will continue to be a problem, and may impact travel in the area. On the West Coast expect some periods of low clouds, and isolated showers as weak waves spinning around the low over St Lawrence Island move north across the area. Temperatures in the Central and Eastern Interior, and the Arctic Plains will cool a few degrees starting Thursday, while the temperatures on the West Coast will warm a few degrees. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SDB JUN 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 292031 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1231 PM AKDT Tue May 29 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...Thunderstorm activity will shift north a bit today and the highest activity will be in the vicinity of a line from just east of Point Hope to Kiana to Ambler to Ruby to Nenana to Salcha to Chicken and east with scattered to isolated showers extending out further from the line. The line will shift a bit more north and east Wednesday. A weather front is moving into the Lower Yukon Delta and will spread showers east to the Upper Kuskokwim Valley today and the Southern Seward Peninsula tonight with the front stretching out. A second front will move into the coastal areas by Wednesday evening. No change in the Arctic as low ceilings and some snowfall create potential travel issues. Models...Solutions are similar in the short term, but as has been the trend, extended solutions leave a lot to be desired. 29/12Z surface solutions initialized well against the 29/18Z analysis with similar pressures and locations of the major features, including the Thermal Trough. Stability indicies are highest in the Noatak Region with around -5 Lifted Indicies, and CAPE values approaching 500 J/kg that will persist until late in the night, while the remainder of the area will still have negative Lifted Indicies to -5, and CAPE values up to 175 J/kg. Precipitable water values range from 0.30 inch in the Fortymile and Alaska Range to 0.60 inch in the Middle Yukon and Upper Noatak/Kobuk. Leaning toward an equal blend for most elements with just a nudge to the temperature grids to maintain continuity. WPC/Ensemble forecasts will be primary in the extended periods as the deterministic solutions continue to struggle. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Low that was over the Yukon Territory yesterday has undercut the ridge and is now between Coal Creek and Circle at 546 dam. The ridge over the Arctic has moved southeast with the 553 dam center over Kaktovik with weak ridging extending southwest to Tanana, southeast along the Yukon/Northwest Territories Border, and northwest into the high Arctic. Broad low persists over the Bering Sea with center just east of the Dateline over the Central Bering Sea. By Wednesday morning the low over the Eastern Interior will move to Atigun Pass at 542 dam, the Ridge will slide southeast to the Northwest Territories at 553 dam, but ridging will persist over the offshore waters, and builds southwest over the Southeast Interior. The low over the Bering Sea will move northeast to St Matthew Island at 526 dam as it spins several wave north over the West Coast, and starts moving to the southeast, then merges with a developing low over the Northeast Pacific. The low near Atigun Pass will move over Nuiqsut by Thursday morning at 541 dam as ridging builds in to the south over the interior and Brooks Range. The low remains stationary into Friday before moving west to merge with a low in the Siberian Arctic. At 850 hpa...Above 0C Temperatures over all but the southwest mainland, Southern Seward Peninsula, and St Lawrence Island. 0C isotherm will push back west over the Coast Friday. Much warmer temperatures pushing east into the interior this weekend with with +10C isotherm pushing west over the Eastern Interior east of Fairbanks and south of Circle. Surface...High pressure remains over the Arctic with a 1021 mb center over the Northern Beaufort Sea and ridging extending southwest over the Chukchi Sea. Broad area of low pressure over the interior with Thermal Trough lying from Noatak to Huslia to Fairbanks and east, with another branch from McGrath to Fairbanks. Bubble high remains over Eastern Norton Sound at 1008 mb. Broad low over the Bering Sea in centered near the Dateline with a 985 mb center. By Wednesday morning the high in the Beaufort will move south over the Northwest Territories with ridging lying along 74N, then dipping southwest across the Chukchi Sea. The thermal trough will slide north to lie from Cape Lisburne to Bettles to Chalkyitsik, and the low in the Bering Sea will move to St Matthew Island at 991 mb, while ridging will build northwest into the Southcentral area and Copper River Basin. The Thermal Trough will shift to lie from Cape Lisburne to Allakaket to Central to to Beaver Creek YT Thursday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...A few coastal locations are getting a break from the low stratus, but as the high to the east moves southeast stratus will move back into those areas this evening. As the week goes on expect some substantial clearing, especially in the Plains as much warmer temperatures are expected. Afternoon thunderstorms and showers will continue in the Brooks Range. Patchy fog in a few locations along the coast, and a few flurries possible. The 29/1930Z GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR Probability products have changed little over the last 10 days with MVFR/IFR conditions, but today they show the stratus is dissipating over the southern plains areas. SPoRT LEO 24 hr Microphysics product at 29/1731Z shows the stratus has diminished in extent over the area, and there may be some clearing has been reported from Barrow east today along the coast. Current observations show 400 to 900 foot ceilings. No significant change in temperatures expected. West Coast and Western Interior...More thunderstorms today mainly in the inland areas from Noatak to Ambler to Ruby. Thunderstorms expected to last well into the evening, and may even persist overnight north and east of Ambler. Showers expected over most of the area north and east of Kaltag this evening. Front is spreading showers to the Lower Yukon Delta and will spread them north to the Southern Seward Peninsula tonight. Wednesday thunderstorms will primarily be confined to areas north of Huslia with isolated to scattered showers over the remainder of the area. Patchy morning fog in the Lower Yukon Delta will reduce visibility. Winds mainly east to south at 5 to 15 mph today will increase along the coast to around 25 mph as the front moves through the area. Temperatures cooling a few degrees through Friday as some cooler air is pulled around the low into the area by the low. Central and Eastern Interior...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms over most of the area this evening as the Thermal Trough along the north slopes of the Alaska Range slides north to be over the Upper Yukon Flats Wednesday. Thunderstorms generally confined to areas north and east of Fairbanks on Wednesday, but would not be surprised by a wayward Thunderstorm in the Middle Tanana Valley. Winds generally light, but expect some gusts to 30 mph near the Alaska Range passes. No significant change in temperatures through Friday. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .Fire Weather...Thunderstorms remain the primary concern across the forecast area. Isolated to scattered Thunderstorms today in the vicinity of a line from Noatak to Ambler to Ruby to Nenana to Chicken. Thunderstorms shifting to the north and east Wednesday with the line lying from Cape Lisburne to Ambler to Bettles to Chalkyitsik then south along the AlCan Border to Beaver Creek YT. Just under 200 lightning strikes in the area yesterday, expect that number to increase today especially over the Upper Noatak and Kobuk Region. Relative Humidity values will recover from the teens and 20s tonight with the area of lowest values shifting northeast into the Upper Yukon Flats, and Fortymile, some lower values may linger along the north slopes of the Alaska Range through Wednesday. Moisture pushing in from the southwest with the front will keep Relative Humidity values elevated to around 30 percent in the Central Interior Thursday. Values will start falling Friday as warmer dry air pushes west into the area out of Canada. High temperatures will remain in the 60s through Friday, then jump into the 70s for the weekend in the Central and Eastern Interior south of the Yukon River. Winds near the Alaska Range gusting to around 35 mph near passes, but winds generally less than 20 mph sustained. For the latest Fire Weather information go to www.weather.gov/arh/fire. && .Hydrology...Interior rivers have settled down, but remain elevated above normal levels. Breakup continues in the Arctic and some minor ice damming has been observed on the Sag River, but they have released and moved on downstream allowing levels to fall. Much warmer temperatures expected this weekend are expected to accelerate breakup in the Arctic. For the latest breakup and flooding information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...29/12Z solutions diverge in the extended periods once again, so will lean heavily on the Ensemble Mean and WPC solutions. Much warmer temperatures pushing into the 70s in the Central and Eastern Interior, mainly south of the Yukon River. Expect isolated to scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms and showers in Interior locations. In the Arctic not expecting much change, but they may break out of the stratus for a while this weekend as the ridging weakens a bit. On the West Coast showers will be moving up the Coast as a low in the Central Bering Sea spins fronts through the area. Slightly warmer on the West Coast, while in the Arctic the Brooks Range and Plains will be much warmer than the last couple weeks with highs pushing into the 60s, while the coast will see highs around 40. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAY 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 282147 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 147 PM AKDT Mon May 28 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...Thunderstorm activity today will lie along a line from Hughes to Kaltag to McGrath then along the south slopes of the Alaska Range to Beaver Creek YT. Northeast of that line will be quiet with partly cloudy conditions and a sprinkle possible in the Middle Tanana Valley this evening, and partly cloudy conditions on the West Coast. That area of instability will slowly slide north into the Interior Tuesday and persist the remainder of the week. The Arctic remains quiet, but low ceilings and some snowfall may create travel issues. Models...Good agreement in the short term, but extended solutions leave a lot to be desired. 28/12Z surface solutions initialized well against the 28/18Z analysis. Stability indicies are highest in the Middle Yukon and Upper Kuskokwim River Valleys with Lifted Indicies around -5, and CAPE values up to 175 J/kg. Precipitable water values continue in the 0.40 to 0.60 inch range. For the short term will go with an equal blend for most elements and maintain continuity. For the extended will lean on the WPC/Ensemble forecasts as deterministic solutions are struggling at this time. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging over the state with the axis lying from high in the Arctic to a 554 dam center 200 nm north of Nuiqsut to Manley Hot Springs to Seward this afternoon. There is a shortwave across the state that lies from a 541 dam low in the Yukon Territory over Eagle to Healy to Nikolai to Buckland. A 522 dam low has moved over the Central Bering Sea with a wave swinging around to lie from the low across the Central Alaska Peninsula and west of Kodiak Island. The low over the Yukon Territory will continue to dig southwest tonight moving over Dawson YT by Tuesday morning, and then northwest over Central by Tuesday afternoon as it cuts off the ridging and the high over the Arctic moves southeast over Kaktovik by Tuesday afternoon at 554 dam. The high will continue to move southeast over the Southeast Yukon Territory by Wednesday morning, while the low over Central will move over the Atigun Pass at 542 dam, and the low in the Bering Sea will move over St Matthew Island at 525 dam as the associated shortwave moves to merge with the low near Atigun Pass. By Thursday morning the low near Atigun Pass will move just north of Prudhoe Bay, the low over St Matthew Island will be over Nunivak Island as it weakens to 535 dam, another low will develop southeast of Kodiak Island with a 543 dam center, and the ridging over the Yukon Territory will push back to the west over the Central and Eastern Interior with 550 dam heights over the AlCan Border. Ridging across the Arctic will be split as the low moves north with a 544 dam center over the southwest Arctic. At 850 hpa...0C isotherm over all but the Northeast corner of the state as upper level low over the Yukon Territory is pulling some cold air southwest over the area. That cooler air moderates rapidly tonight and the 0C isotherm moves back north of the area. As the low over the Bering Sea approaches the coast the 0C isotherm will be pushed to the northeast and by Wednesday morning it will lie from Shishmaref to Nikolai to Haines with above 0C temperatures to the north. Warmer temperatures will push back to the southwest late in the week. Surface...High pressure remains over the Arctic with a 1021 mb center 150 nm north of Prudhoe Bay and ridging extending northwest, and southeast over MacKenzie Bay. Low pressure remains across the Interior with the Thermal Trough along the north slopes of the Alaska Range. Weak high pressure with a 1015 mb center is over Eastern Norton Sound, with a 983 mb low in the Central Bering Sea with a weather front moving over Nunivak Island and the Alaska Peninsula. By Tuesday morning the high in the Arctic will move to 400 nm north of Demarcation Point with ridging extending southeast across MacKenzie Bay, while the low in the Central Bering Sea will move to the Dateline with the front spinning north to lie along the Southwest Coast and just south of Kodiak Island with the leeside/Thermal Trough north of the Alaska Range extending into the Upper Tanana Valley. The front continues to move inland to lie from Nome to Homer by Tuesday evening with the troughing persisting north of the Alaska Range. By Wednesday morning the trough continues to weaken as it moves northeast as the high pressure slides east a bit. The Thermal trough will also start lifting to the north and will be over the Upper Yukon Flats. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Not much has changed over the last week as stratus continues to hang over the area with the east to northeast flow over the Coast and Plains. The Brooks Range will continue to see just partly to mostly cloudy conditions with a few showers. Winds 10 to 20 mph from most areas. Expect some patchy fog, but no dense fog issues expected. A few flurries possible. The 28/2100Z GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR Probability products have changed little over the last 10 days with MVFR/IFR conditions indicated over all but the Brooks Range. SPoRT Satellite products show stratus in the same area as the GOES products indicate, and current observations show 400 to 900 foot ceilings. Ceilings may arbitrarily lift for short periods. No significant change in temperatures expected. West Coast and Western Interior...Today the Interior will be the active area with thunderstorms and showers developing if they have not already. Primary area for thunderstorms will be the Middle Yukon and Upper Kuskokwim River Valleys. Heavy showers, small hail, and gusty winds may occur with thunderstorms. The thunderstorm activity will slide north a bit tomorrow as a weather front moves to the lower Yukon Delta by afternoon spreading showers inland and north to the Seward Peninsula by late afternoon. Patchy morning fog in the Lower Yukon Delta will reduce visibility. Winds mainly east to south at 5 to 15 mph today will increase along the coast to around 25 mph as the front moves through the area. Temperatures cooling slightly as the front moves through. Central and Eastern Interior...Quiet this evening, then increased clouds developing during the day Tuesday with increased potential for shower and thunderstorms as the Thermal Trough and front push north to the Upper Yukon Flats. Rivers remain high, see below for details. Winds generally light. No significant change in temperatures through Wednesday. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...A strong weather front will move to the Bering Strait Friday morning bringing elevated seas and potential for High Surf to the area. && .Fire Weather...Thunderstorms will be the primary concern as the Thermal Trough and front move north across the area to the Upper Yukon Flats Tuesday and Wednesday. Relative Humidity values will continue to slowly fall through midweek bottoming out at around 20 percent for most Interior locations Wednesday. As the front moves through Relative humidity values will rise in most interior locations to above 30 percent, the exception will be in the Upper Tanana Valley from Delta Junction to the AlCan Border. Winds may increase to around 20 mph as the front moves across the Alaska Range, otherwise most areas will have winds less than 10 mph with some gusts to 15 mph during the afternoons. High temperatures will remain in the 60s for the most part in the interior. For the latest Fire Weather information go to www.weather.gov/arh/fire. && .Hydrology...Rivers overall have continued to fall the last 24 to 36 hours, but remain elevated above normal levels. Breakup continues in the Arctic and ice dam that had backed up water on the Sag River released and water levels fell, otherwise no significant activity reported for the Arctic Rivers. For the latest breakup and flooding information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Models not singing the same tune, so will lean on the Ensemble/WPC solutions for the extending periods. Expect some afternoon thunderstorms and showers in the Interior with low stratus ceilings in the Arctic, and a weather front will move to the West Coast Saturday night spreading showers up the coast and into the Western Interior Monday. Warmer temperatures in the Central and Eastern Interior with no significant change in temperatures elsewhere. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210. && $$ SDB MAY 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KSGX 281543 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 843 AM PDT Mon May 28 2018 .SYNOPSIS... low pressure over the Great Basin will drift east today and Tuesday, helping to shrink the marine layer slightly for minor inland warming. Marine clouds will continue nights and mornings, gradually spreading farther inland and more persistent Wednesday and Thursday, along with cooler days. Somewhat warmer into next weekend as the trough retreats and the marine layer shrinks. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... At 8 AM PDT...The marine stratus was widespread and solid from the inland valleys, west over the coastal waters. Based on the Miramar sounding...the marine layer was about 2600 Ft deep and topped by a 6 degree C inversion, which was about 2K FT lower than yesterday morning. The sfc pressure gradients were about neutral KSAN to SW NV, but running 6-7 MBS onshore to the lower deserts. This was a bit stronger than yesterday morning. Winds were mostly light. Based on the estimated cloud thickness and inversion strength, clearing is expected today, first inland, then spread over the coast by midday. Should be a pleasant Memorial Day. No forecast changes this morning. From previous discussion... Low pressure centered over the Great Basin will continue to weaken today and move east on Tuesday. Warming will continue for inland areas today with some slight additional warming for Tuesday. This will take high temperatures to around 5 degrees above average for inland areas on Tuesday. The marine layer will continue to decrease in depth to around 2000 feet for tonight into Tuesday morning with the coastal low clouds extending inland into the western valleys. For Wednesday and Thursday...a trough of low pressure will move inland along the West Coast strengthening the onshore flow across Southern California. This will spread cooling inland with high temperatures for inland areas on Thursday around 5 degrees below average. The marine layer will increase in depth with coastal low clouds extending into portions of the inland valleys for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning...and into the far inland valleys for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The late afternoon through late evening southwest to west winds in the mountains and deserts will be a little stronger. Low pressure and onshore flow will weaken for late in the week through next weekend. Slow warming will begin on Friday with a little greater warming for next weekend. This will take inland high temperatures to around 5 degrees above average for next weekend. Areas of night and morning coastal low clouds and fog will extend inland into the western valleys. && .AVIATION... 281530Z..Coast/Valleys...Low clouds will slowly dissipate this morning between 17-20Z from the inland valleys to the coast. Low clouds will redevelop and move ashore after 02Z this evening and spread inland overnight, probably into the western edge of the valleys by Tuesday morning. Bases slightly lower probably around 1000 ft MSL, then scattering out Tuesday morning between about 16- 18Z. Elsewhere...mostly clear skies and VFR conditions through Tuesday. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine weather is expected through Saturday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...10/17 AVIATION/MARINE...JMB  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KAKQ 280258 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1058 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary lingers across the Maryland eastern shore into Monday before dissipating. Meanwhile, high pressure remains centered over the western Atlantic for most of this week. The remnant low Alberto is expected to track west of the mountains through mid week. The moisture ahead of this low will result in unsettled conditions over the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 1045 PM EDT Sunday... Cancelled the Flash Flood Watch for Dorchester/Wicomico given the position of the backdoor cold front. The threat is diminishing a bit to the south across Somerset and southern Worcester but still enough potential and an ongoing FLS in effect to keep the watch going there. Otherwise, latest analysis indicating that the backdoor cold front has dropped south into portions of the lower MD eastern shore, with temperatures now into the low-mid 60s from Ocean City to Salisbury. Elsewhere, showers with embedded tstms persist ongoing over portions of central/eastern VA mainly from Cumberland Co ENE through the north side of metro Richmond. Precipitable water values in this region avg 1.90" to 2.00" with training storms due to low MBE values. Lows tonight in the upper 60s/lower 70s except lower 60s MD eastern shore. && .SHORT TERM /8 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 3 PM EDT Sunday... Given Alberto's remnant low track, models are now showing more of the deeper moisture bands moving north and rotating across the Mid Atlantic region through mid week with the heaviest rainfall across the srn half of the local area. 1.5-2.5 in QPF across srn VA with 2.5-3.5 in across NC. Given this rainfall will be spread out over a few days, will hold off on any flood watch for now but may eventually need one in later shifts given how wet it has been lately. First band progged to rotate north Mon aftn where likely to cat pops will be kept across the south, chc across the north. Clouds and pcpn will keep temps down a bit, with highs upr 70s- lwr 80s. Likely pops cont across the south Mon night with chc pops across the north. Lows in the mid 60s-lwr 70s. Additional moisture bands are progged to move across the region Tue and Wed. Timing will be problematic so will keep chc pops across the north, likely across the south Tue and Tues night closer to the deeper moisture feed with likely pops overs the wrn half of the local area Wed. Although thunder chcs will be there each day, don't expect widespread thunderstorm coverage but kept chc thunder in the grids. Main concern will be locally heavy rainfall. Highs both days 80-85. Lows Tue night upr 60s-lwr 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 3 PM Sunday... Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue periodically through the day on Thursday. Most models are in agreement that a short break in the activity comes Friday morning, before a cold front approaches and sparks more showers and storms in the afternoon. GFS ensembles and most global guidance suggest a heavier band of precipitation setting up along coastal areas both Friday and Saturday afternoons, but a few more days of model consistency will be needed to iron out those details. Forecast confidence decreases markedly Friday and beyond, with the EURO solution sweeping a cold front through Saturday and the GFS/Canadian solutions stalling out the front over the area. The 12z GFS also notes several upper level disturbances meandering slowly around the mid-Atlantic region, in no hurry to make an exit. Both the GFS/Canadian would suggest continued rain chances through the end of the period, while the EURO would dry things out by Sunday. Depending on which side of the fence you stand on, Sunday into next week could either bring rain or sunshine. The temperature department brings mid 80s for Thursday afternoon. Thursday will run a few degrees lower than Friday, when morning dry time allows for a quicker warm up into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. Leaned closer to the EURO on Sunday, cooling down afternoon highs into the lower and middle 80s. These may need to be adjusted upward if Saturday's cold front does not clear the area. Overnight lows will remain steady in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 745 pm EDT Sunday... Mostly VFR conditions across the CWA and terminal regions. However there are scattered thunderstorms across the Piedmont area and extending through Hanover and Caroline counties through the Northern Neck onto the Maryland Eastern Shore. Strong showers and thunderstorms will soon affect SBY as storms move across the Chesapeake Bay. A cold front also lies north of SBY over Delaware and west through Maryland. The front will drop south across the Delmarva through tonight. The front will help to trigger thunderstorms into the late evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible overnight as the front sags to the south and tropical moisture surges north from the Gulf and Atlantic. Outlook... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the next few days with an influx of tropical moisture from the deep south. && .MARINE... As of 350 PM EDT Sunday... No headlines in the short term tonight thru Tue. SSW winds arnd Bermuda high pressure average 15 kt or less thru Mon night with seas mainly 2-3 ft and waves 1-2 ft. Winds become SE or E for Tue night into Wed night with speeds remaining mainly aob 15 kt. Seas 2-4 ft with 1-2 ft waves. Sctd tstms could be accompanied by gusty winds through Thu. && .CLIMATE... As of 345 AM EDT Sunday... * RIC monthly rainfall total through 5/26 is 10.27" which now ranks as the wettest May on record. (breaking the old record of 9.79" in 2016). (Precipitation records date back to 1880). * SBY monthly rainfall total through 5/26 is 8.63" (and this will increase as some additional rain has been recorded today). Through the 26th, this already ranks as 3rd wettest May on record (wettest is 10.38" in 1948). (Precipitation records date back to 1906). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Monday for MDZ023-024. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPR NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...MPR LONG TERM...BMS AVIATION...MPR/JEF MARINE...TMG CLIMATE...AKQ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 232148 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 148 PM AKDT Wed May 23 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...Active unstable pattern will continue in the interior with thunderstorms and showers developing this afternoon. Not quite as active as Tuesday. More showery weather on Thursday, but less thunderstorm activity. Rainfall amounts will be highest to the east and south of Fairbanks and high water and potential minor flooding of low lying areas will remain a concern through the weekend. Will issue a new Special Weather Statement to address those concerns. Most active area for Thunderstorms will be the Middle Yukon River Valley from Galena south, and the Upper Kuskokwim on Thursday. The Arctic remains quiet, but low ceilings and some snowfall may create travel issues. Out on the West Coast they are also dealing with lower ceilings and some areas of poor visibility in fog. Models...Short term continuity remains good, and the extended solutions have somehow come into agreement after being far apart the last few runs. Surface initialization was good against the 23/18Z analysis. Stability indicies are much better today with Lifted Indicies of -5 in a few locations, and CAPE values approaching 200 J/kg. Precipitable water values today range from 0.40 to 0.60 inch. Going with what has worked the last few days as our approach and that will be an equal blend for most elements to maintain continuity. Going to blend in a bit of the ARW, and NMM high resolution solutions to define the area a little better. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging over central Alaska lies from Eagle to Teller and will be squeezed out tonight as a strong wave moves north over the Gulf of Alaska Coast, then over the Southeast Interior by Thursday afternoon. A 542 dam low develops and moves over the Upper Yukon Flats, and a 540 dam low develops and moves near Dawson YT by Thursday afternoon with weak ridging over the Central Brooks Range and Middle Yukon River Valley north of Galena, extending west to a 547 dam high near St Lawrence A 540 dam low over the Upper Noatak Basin will slowly slide to the west to be over the Chukchi Sea Friday morning at 542 dam. Troughing will persist over the Southeast Interior as a 535 dam low develops over the Gulf of Alaska by Friday morning dissipating over the Kenai Peninsula in the afternoon. The 519 dam low that has been moving east over the Southern Bering Sea will cross over into the North Pacific near Nikolski Friday morning and will be 300 nm south of Kodiak Island Friday night, then moves to 200 nm southwest of Yakutat by Sunday morning. A 549 dam high over the Arctic with ridging along 76N will persist, but weaken, then merge with a 556 dam high near 80N 180 Friday afternoon as ridging pushes south over the Arctic Coast. At 850 hpa...Zero Isotherm over all but the Northwest Arctic Coast. Expect it to push back northwest over the coast by Thursday morning. The Zero isotherm will be push south to the Brooks Range this weekend. Surface...High pressure persists over the Arctic with a 1026 mb center 400 nm north of Prudhoe Bay and high pressure pushing south over MacKenzie Bay and west to the New Siberian Islands. The high will move southeast to Banks Island by Thursday morning with ridging extending west to a 1024 mb center 400 nm north of Demarcation Point, then northwest. A trough of low pressure remains over mainland Alaska extending from Dawson YT to Fairbanks to Anvik to a 989 mb low 200 nm north of Adak. By Thursday morning the trough strengthens over the Interior with a 1000 mb low near Dawson YT, a 1000 mb low near Fairbanks, and a 1001 mb low near McGrath. A weather front will set up over the Southeast Interior and persist into the evening before weakening. A 1005 mb low develops near Noatak as will. The low near Adak will move to 100 nm north of Atka, and a developing low will move to 200 nm southeast of Kodiak Island at 998 mb. By Thursday evening the low near Fairbanks will be near Fort Yukon at 999 mb, and the low near McGrath will move to Huslia at 1002 mb. The low near Kodiak will continue to swing northeast, and the low in the Bering Sea will be over Dutch Harbor. A bubble high will cutoff from the high pressure over the Southeast Panhandle and drift over the Western Alaska Range and dissipate. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus, then more stratus in the forecast. Add in a little flurries and fog, and spring in the Arctic. Chance of accumulation snow tonight and Thursday, but less than one half inch. The 23/2100Z GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR Probability products indicate MVFR/IFR conditions over all but the Brooks Range. Current observations show 400 to 900 foot ceilings with condition persisting through at least Friday. Ceilings may lift for short periods. Northeast to east winds at 15 to 30 mph. Temperatures relatively steady. West Coast and Western Interior...Stratus continues to be spun into Kotzebue Sound, and even Norton Sound, so low ceilings will continue through most of the night. Flurries or sprinkles on the outer Capes. Dense fog in Kotzebue Sound will continue into Thursday before clearing significantly. Isolated to scattered showers in the Middle Yukon and Upper Kuskokwim Valleys tonight with scattered thunderstorms from Galena south Thursday. Wind direction remain quite variable at 5 to 20 mph with strongest winds along the coast. No significant change in temperatures expected. Central and Eastern Interior...Showers already popping up and that will continue into the evening, mainly south of the Yukon River. A few thunderstorms will also pop up this evening, mainly east of Fairbanks. Showers developing over most of the area east and south of Fairbanks tonight with rainfall amounts 0.75 to 1.50 inches. Rivers remain high, see below for details. Winds generally light. Temperatures slightly cooler with cloudy conditions the next 36 hours. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .Fire Weather...Thunderstorms will be the primary concern the next couple days, but they will be wet, and isolated. Thunderstorm activity will diminish in the Central and Eastern Interior Thursday, but increase a bit in the Middle Yukon River Valley from Galena south. Wetting rains for most areas south and east of Fairbanks the next couple days. Thermal trough hanging out in the Upper Yukon Flats, but will shift a bit south Thursday, then slide back north to the Flats. Minimum Relative Humidity values above 30 percent, with excellent overnight recovery in most locations. For the latest Fire Weather information go to www.weather.gov/arh/fire. && .Hydrology...Upper Chena River continues to run near minor Flood Stage but is not expected to go above at this time. Special Weather Statement issued for river basins east and south of Fairbanks with 0.75 to 1.50 inches of rain expected by Friday morning. Models are focusing more of the rain over the Fortymile, Johnson, and Robertson River basins with the latest solutions. Will continue to monitor this situation along with the River Forecast Center. Breakup continues in the lower reaches of the Yukon River with no issues noted the last 24 hours. For the latest breakup and flooding information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Models all of a sudden have come into much better agreement. Seasonal afternoon showers to start the week for most areas with a weather front bringing some rain to most locations Thursday. Temperatures pretty steady through Tuesday, then slightly warmer Wednesday and Thursday. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAY 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KARX 230443 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1143 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018 Visible satellite this afternoon continues to show the clouds remaining over areas from along the Mississippi River east into Wisconsin. Still expecting most of these to scatter out through the evening as a brief period of upper level ridging builds over the area. With the recent rains adding moisture to the boundary layer, the clearing skies and light winds, concerned about fog formation, especially along and east of the Mississippi River where skies will be clear the longest. Potential that some of this may be dense but confidence on where and when is not high enough for an advisory at this point. Farther west, the potential for fog will be mitigated by increasing clouds ahead of the short wave trough. The 22.12Z models remain consistent in showing a wave topping the upper level ridge tonight. The focus for the low level jet will be over the Missouri River Valley which should help the wave generate a complex of showers and storms over northwest Iowa into southeast South Dakota this evening. This complex should migrate east with the short wave trough, but the low level jet/moisture transport will rapidly weaken as the complex moves east which should bring in mainly showers with some embedded thunder to locations west of the Mississippi River late tonight. This activity should continue to drift east/northeast Wednesday while also weakening but enough to continue mentioning at least a chance for some showers/isolated storms across much of the area. Another weak short wave trough should top the ridge again Wednesday night with the low level jet/moisture transport focused more into the Upper Mississippi River Valley. This low level jet/moisture transport doesn't look to be all that strong but enough to regenerate another complex of showers and storms from about the Mississippi River off to the east. The severe threat with these storms looks rather minimal with only about 750 J/kg of ML CAPE that quickly drops off into northern and central Wisconsin. Similar to Wednesday, this complex should continue to drift to the east/northeast during Thursday while also gradually weakening and diminishing in areal coverage. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018 There looks to be on and off rain chances through much of this period with a rather weak pattern that should allow for more hours of dry weather than wet conditions at any given locations. The exception to this looks to be Friday afternoon and evening. The current upper level low over the Desert Southwest will ride up the backside of the ridge and then slide east through the top of the ridge to close out the work week. Still some timing and strength differences between the models, but they all show at least some weak pv advection in the 500-300 mb layer sliding across most of Minnesota and Wisconsin. This should push a cold front across the area Friday afternoon and evening with some convection firing along it. The 22.12Z NAM suggests between 1000 and 2000 J/kg of ML CAPE could be in place ahead of the front but the deep shear looks to be lacking and only about 20 to 25 knots in the 0-3 km layer. At this point, would expect much severe weather but heavy rain may be more of a threat with warm cloud depths of 3 to 3.5 km and precipitable water values forecast to be between 1.5 and 1.75 inches. Temperatures will also be warming back up during this period with little to no cool down behind the front Friday. Highs should be back in the 80s by Thursday and stay there through the holiday weekend. Highs in the middle to upper 80s are currently expected across the entire area from Friday through Memorial Day. Fortunately, it looks like the dew points will remain in the 60s for this period which will help to keep the heat index values in check. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018 Radar at 0430Z showing thunderstorm activity has broken out across Iowa as forecast and this should begin to work its way toward KRST overnight. Still some questions on the instability that will shift in and how much TSRA will be around versus just SHRA. Confidence was not high enough to TEMPO the TSRA at this TAF issuance. Fog is beginning to develop across central WI and this trend should continue in WI. Big question is the cirrus spreading in from the Dakotas and if it will be enough cloud thickness to stop any cooling for dense fog development in the river valley. Stayed the course for now with the forecast as there is only a 3F dewpoint depression at 04Z. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...Baumgardt  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 202108 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 108 PM AKDT Sun May 20 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...Thermal trough lies from the Middle Yukon Valley to the Upper Tanana Valley and a weather front swinging northwest into the interior will bring showers to most interior locations as it moves through this evening through Tuesday. The Arctic remains quiet with low stratus ceilings. Trough over the West Coast will continue to produce some isolated showers. Breakup has moved to the Lower Yukon, see below for details. Models...Surface solutions are similar, and they initialized well against the 20/18Z analysis. The Canadian is a bit more aggressive in moving a low to near Central this evening, but they all indicate enhanced trough along the north slopes of the Alaska Range this evening moving to lie from from the Upper Kuskokwim to the Upper Yukon Flats by Monday evening. A second low will develop near Beaver Creek YT Monday afternoon move north to Chalkyitsik by Tuesday morning at 996 mb, then drifts west to Beaver and slowly weakens through Wednesday. Stability indicies are not great, but there is still some Lifted Indicies around zero from Dot Lake to Delta Junction this evening. Solutions indicate some non zero CAPE values with the thermal trough, but nothing significant. Will use an equal blend for most elements with a strong lean toward continuity since there are not significant changes expected. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Troughing over most of the state as the ridge has moved east with only weak ridging persisting over the northeast corner and Eastern Arctic/Beaufort Sea. A 530 dam center over St Lawrence Island will continue to dive south tonight and merge with a broad 519 dam center that will move to 200 nm southeast of Kodiak Island by Monday morning, then persists in the area into Wednesday. A strong shortwave swinging around the low will move over the Gulf of Alaska Coast, and southern Yukon Territory this evening, and north over the Central and Eastern Interior tonight to lie from King Salmon to McGrath to Tanana to Old Crow YT by Monday morning. By Monday evening the trough will lie from Kodiak City to McGrath to Hughes to Deadhorse. Weaker shortwaves will continue to spin across the Eastern and Central Interior through Monday night. Ridging will build in over the Alaska Range Tuesday night with a 547 dam center over the MatSu Valley. Weak trough will persist over the Western Arctic and Chukchi Sea along 170W through Monday night. At 850 hpa...Zero Isotherm has pushed north and west over all but the coastal areas with the +10C isotherm over the Fortymile Country. Some cooler air digs south over the Central and Northwest Arctic and Northwest Interior Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, pulls back to the north. Some cooler air pushed over the Outer West Coast and St Lawrence Island Wednesday will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the area. Surface...High pressure will persist over the Arctic with a 1029 mb center 400 nm north of Point Barrow. Broad area of low pressure over most of the state with a 984 mb low 200 nm south of Kodiak Island, a 994 mb low near Northway, and a 998 mb low near Marshall. By Monday morning the low south of Kodiak has become quasi stationary, while the low near Northway will be near Central and a well defined trough will lie along the north slopes of the Alaska Range, and weak troughing will persist over the West Coast. By Tuesday morning the trough will move north to lie from Dillingham to McGrath to Beaver and east, while the low near Kodiak weakens as it slides east to 300 nm from the Island. A 1000 mb low will develop in Kotzebue Sound Monday night and move northwest across the Chukchi Sea Tuesday night and Wednesday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus, and more stratus, and after that some more stratus, springtime in the Arctic. The 20/2000Z GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR Probability products indicate IFR conditions over the Eastern Arctic Coast, with MVFR conditions over the remainder of the coastal areas, and the Plains. SPoRT LEO 24hr Microphysics shows a large area of stratus over most of the coastal areas from MacKenzie Bay west to Point Lay with observations showing 400 to 1000 foot ceilings. Not seeing much precipitation, but a sprinkle or a flurry is possible. Winds will persist from the northeast to east at 15 to 30 mph with the strongest winds over the eastern Arctic Coast as the gradient gets pinched as the low move north to the Upper Yukon Flats over most of the area and the 1025 mb high in the Arctic remains stationary. Temperatures steady to a couple degrees warmer through Wednesday. West Coast and Western Interior...Cloudy. Trough over the coast is producing isolated showers up and down the coast, and do not expect that to change as a shortwave aloft swings into the area and reinforces the current trough. Some isolated thunderstorms in the Upper Kuskokwim Valley Monday afternoon, and again Tuesday afternoon. Patchy Dense Fog will return to the Lower Yukon Delta Monday morning, mainly west of Anvik, with improving conditions after 10 am AKDT. Winds generally northeast to northwest at 5 to 20 mph except near the Bering Strait winds to 30 mph. A little cold air gets wrapped into the coast Tuesday, so expect some cooler temperature in the outer coastal areas, and St Lawrence Island, otherwise no significant change. See below for river information. Central and Eastern Interior...Cloudy. Showers swinging north through the area tonight and Monday with isolated thunderstorms From Dot Lake to Delta Junction in the evening. Rainfall generally less than 1/4 inch. Showers will continue to swing north to the Upper Yukon Flats, and west to the Middle Yukon Monday. Winds generally less than 15 mph will be swinging around from southeast tonight to north Monday to west Tuesday. Rivers continue to run high, but no issues have been reported and the rainfall will no produce a significant change in the levels. Not much change in high temperatures through midweek, but overnight lows in the Tanana Valley will be cooler tonight with the showers. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .Fire Weather...Thermal trough extends from the Middle Yukon Valley to the Upper Tanana Valley will slide north to the Upper Yukon Flats by Tuesday morning. A weather front will spin north across the area tonight and Monday bringing showers and some isolated thunderstorms. Some drying behind the front will push Relative Humidity values to around 25 percent in the Tanana Valley and along the AlCan Border Monday. Higher values for Tuesday around 35 percent, then drying again with values around 25 percent in the Middle Tanana Valley and the Upper Yukon Flats. Winds generally less than 15 mph through Wednesday. For the latest Fire Weather information go to www.weather.gov/arh/fire. && .Hydrology...Yukon ran free of ice at Galena Saturday, should be clearing at Kaltag today. Still quite a bit of ice downstream from Aniak, but there is some open water. No reports of problems in the Lower Yukon Delta at this time. For the latest breakup information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Temperatures near seasonal normals with highs around 50 on the West Coast, around 30 on the Arctic Coast, and in the 60s in the Interior. Thermal trough will be over the Upper Yukon Flats Thursday, then slide south over the Tanana Valley for the remainder of the week. A weather front moving into the area from the southeast will bring showers with isolated to scattered Thunderstorms to all Interior areas Thursday and Friday. Gusty winds developing near Alaska Range Passes for Thursday. If the GFS is correct, then the Northwest Arctic Coast may see some strong north winds and High Surf on Saturday. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ230. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ230. Gale Warning for PKZ225. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAY 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KABQ 201227 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 627 AM MDT Sun May 20 2018 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE Ceilings have been slow to develop across the eastern plains, but the latest GOES-East GeoColor and IFR Probability imagery indicate activity starting to blossom. Cloud decks are ranging from 1500 ft near KCVS/KCVN to 4000 and 6000 ft at KTCC and KROW respectively. According to the latest HRRR, these clouds should dissipate by mid- to late morning, lingering the longest in Curry/Roosevelt Counties and the Sacramento Mtns. Canyon winds continue to impact the Rio Grande Valley, including KABQ, but the strongest speeds have likely already occurred. Another crop of showers and thunderstorms will be common along and immediately east of the central mountain chain by afternoon. Probabilities are too low to include anything more than VCSH at KLVS at this time. Models suggest precip could persist well into the overnight hours in eastern NM, but pinpointing potential impacts this far out is too difficult. Will monitor and adjust TAFs accordingly with future updates. DPorter && .PREV DISCUSSION...348 AM MDT Sun May 20 2018... ...Corrected Discussion... .SYNOPSIS... A backdoor front will continue to push through eastern New Mexico this morning and into the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon. Winds will remain elevated in channeled terrain along the Central Mountain Chain through this evening. Southerly flow will develop over the state Monday, bringing with it widespread showers and thunderstorms as far west as the Continental Divide. Some storms may be severe, mainly east of the the Central Mountain Chain. Temperatures will gradually increase through the week as a ridge builds over the region. && .DISCUSSION... In the short term, showers and thunderstorms have ended over the Eastern Plains as the front has pushed southward and the activity has shifted eastward into Texas. Winds have increased in channeled areas along the Central Mountain Chain. These winds will remain brisk through the day with a wind advisory in effect until 10 AM today. PoPs have been reduced today with this package as the main focus of precipitation looks to be mainly along the higher terrain with the best chances along the Sangres this afternoon. Precipitation chances will increase over most of New Mexico on Monday as moist southerly flow combined with a weak shortwave will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms as far west as the Continental Divide. The current outlook from the NWS Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk for severe weather for most of the region on Monday. As of now, the best dynamics look to be over the Eastern Plains where the main threat looks to be weak supercells with a hail/wind threat. Model 0-1km CAPE values over the Eastern Plains surge to near 3000 J/kg Monday afternoon with guidance suggesting storm initiation being aided by the terrain. Any thunderstorms that develop near the Continental Divide on Monday will likely be mostly dry with gusty outflow winds. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated at this time, future forecast packages should be monitored for any changes. For the remainder of the forecast package, showers and thunderstorms will linger over the Eastern Plains through the period as a ridge begins to reestablish itself over the Southwest. Temperatures will increase through week as the ridge builds over the area. 54/Fontenot && .FIRE WEATHER... A backdoor cold front cleared the eastern plains of NM this morning and is making its way through the Rio Grande Valley. Higher boundary layer moisture and non-desiccating humidities are noted in its wake. This surge of moisture will propagate toward the AZ/NM state line by mid- or late morning. The biggest forecast challenge is related to the relatively sharp moisture gradient between the AZ border and Rio Grande Valley over the next couple of days due to moisture advection Sun night and Monday and the recycling of moisture through afternoon and evening convection. Showers/storms today will be favored across the northern and south central mtns as well as the adjacent highlands. Virga showers cannot be ruled out across the Rio Grande Valley, resulting in gusty and/or erratic winds. Upper level storm system diving into southern CA will enhance upper level dynamics to support a broader risk for storms on Monday into Tuesday. Based on local rules of thumb, it appears a mix of wet/dry storms are expected from the AZ border to the Cont Divide on Monday, resulting in an LAL of 6. Meanwhile, winds will increase over western NM and may result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions during peak heating. SPC Day 2 Outlook highlights elevated fire weather in our western zones, but will defer any watch considerations for another forecast cycle due to the aforementioned moisture challenges. On Tuesday, the mix of wet/dry storms should be confined between the Cont Divide and central mountain chain. Moisture will be shunted further east by mid-week as the upper level storm system weakens and tracks through the Great Basin, with shower and thunderstorm activity confined to the eastern plains. Afternoon humidities will return to the single digits across the west. A lack of significant winds will limit the threat for critical fire weather conditions. Models diverge on the pattern for late in the week, with the GFS20 rather bullish on another backdoor cold front replenishing low-level moisture and higher precipitation chances. DPorter && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning for the following zones... NMZ518-519. && $$ 46  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KAKQ 181404 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1004 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary stalls across northern portions of the forecast area through tonight, bringing periodic showers and thunderstorms, with the likelihood for heavy rainfall. Somewhat drier air arrives during the weekend as the upper level low pressure system weakens. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1000 AM EDT Friday... Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday evening for much of the area... Impressive/excessive RA event since Thu afternoon...esp over central/scentral VA as deep layered southerly flow transported anomalous moisture over sfc frontal boundary stalled over the FA. The intensity/coverage of the RA has decreased (though there is a fairly large area of RA still over the lower MD ern shore attm). See latest FLW/FLS products for current warnings and statements over the area that have been issued recently to account for the heavy rain that has been on the order of 2-4" most areas (locally up to 5-8" since yesterday in a few spots). The overall pattern does not change much through (at least) this eve, w/ the upr trough over the Mid-South and a stalled frontal boundary sitting over the local area. Keeping Flood Watch continue through midnight tonight for now (will re-evaluate this afternoon)...though axis of highest/deepest moist and potential +RA may eventually shift to ESE portions of VA and NE NC later tonight (but these areas have seen only spotty excessive amounts thus far). Highs today from the l-m60s on the lower MD ern shore to the 70s elsewhere (around 80 F in NE NC). Keeping PoPs 60-100% over much of the local area w/ exception to CHC PoPs far SE VA-NE NC...w/ additional heavy rain still a concern. The sfc front will begin lifting north as the upper level low begins to weaken/transition into an open wave while pushing NE to the lower OH Valley. The threat for heavy rain will focus more to the along and/or E of I-95 after midnight and into Sat...though the duration attm is not expected to be long enough to warrant a flood Watch across SE VA/NE NC. Warm/humid again tonight with lows mainly 65-70 F (except cooler MD eastern shore). && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 415 AM EDT Friday... As the transition of the upper low continues on Sat, the flow aloft will be stronger from the SW and thus the chance for training storms and widespread flooding will be lower (even though heavy downpours will continue). Most if not all of the FA is expected to get back into the warm sector Sat aftn as axis of deepest moisture shifts to the coast/offshore. So...highs Sat will genly be in the upper 70s to lower 80s (low-mid 70s on most of the eastern shore). With some sunshine possible, there is a bit more potential for stronger tstms by Sat aftn/evening though much uncertainty remains and it would likely be only a marginal risk at best. PoPs will genly be high chance to likely (50-70%). Sun will be warm and moderately humid w/ VRB clouds/partly sunny conditions. Will have PoPs 20-40% (highest over far SE VA- coastal NE NC)...primarily for afternoon/eve SHRAS/tstms. Highs from the u70s-l80s on the ern shore to the mid 80s well inland. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 100 PM EDT Thursday... Unsettled wx expected to continue early in the extended forecast period then a trend toward drying/improving wx now highlighted mid week. A gradual break down of the moist SSW flow expected as westerlies aloft strengthen and finally push a (and more significant) cold front through the region (Wed). Keeping PoPs above climo Sun night through Tue (mainly 30-40%) for SHRAS...mainly diurnally driven tstms. Lowering PoPs to aob 15-30% Wed-Thu. Highs each day mainly in the 80s...w/ lows in the 60s-70F. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 800 AM EDT Friday... An area of widespread showers with embedded tstms is currently impacting the Lower Eastern Shore of Maryland, bringing heavy downpours with IFR visibilities to SBY. Scattered showers are impacting the other terminals with light to moderate rain. Showers will continue to impact the terminals for the bulk of the TAF period, with the heaviest rain at RIC/SBY. IFR/LIFR ceilings at SBY briefly lifted around 11z as the heavier rain moved in, but BKN IFR cigs (~500 ft) have returned and will persist for the bulk of the TAF period. Elsewhere, expect MVFR ceilings for the bulk of the TAF period with a possible return to IFR cigs early Saturday AM. OUTLOOK... Shower/tstm chances continue on Saturday, as the frontal boundary gradually lifts northward. Somewhat drier conditions potentially arrive by Sunday. Patchy early morning MVFR/IFR stratus will be possible on both Saturday and Sunday. Rain chances continue through early next week, as mainly afternoon/evening showers/tstms are possible on Monday and Tuesday. && .MARINE... As of 430 AM EDT Friday... A frontal boundary will remain stalled acrs the northern portions of the marine area into this evening. This will result in winds remaining E 5-15 kt off the MD coast, the nrn portion of the VA ern shore, and over the upper Bay. SE or S winds 5-15 kt will persist over the middle to lower Bay and the remainder of the coastal waters through tonight. E then SE winds, then winds becoming S and increasing to 15-20 kt late tonight into Sat night, will result in seas building to 4-6 ft over the nrn three coastal zns. Thus, have issued a SCA for these zns starting late tonight for 650/652, and starting early Sat aftn for 654. Expect S winds 10-20 kt over the waters fm later Sat aftn into Sat night, then SW 10-15 kt very late Sat night thru Sun. SCA conditions will be marginal for the Bay Sat/Sat night, and have capped speeds at 15 kt for now. Bermuda high pressure well offshore will keep winds SSW 5-15 kt Sun night thru Tue. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 1000 AM EDT Friday... Flood warnings continue for the James River basin. New warnings have been issued for Lawrenceville...Rawlings and Stony Creek on the Meherrin and Nottoway rivers. Recent heavy rain along with the expectation of more heavy rain has resulted in a forecast of minor to moderate flooding. See FLWAKQ or FLSAKQ for more details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Flood Watch through this evening for MDZ021>025. NC...None. VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069- 075>090-092-509>522. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 5 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB NEAR TERM...ALB/LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...ERI/LKB MARINE...TMG HYDROLOGY...AKQ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KILM 180740 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 340 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical moisture will continue to stream northward across the Carolinas much of the period, bringing humid conditions and rain chances each day, along with occasional sunshine between daytime showers and storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Friday...Low pressure will continue to lift north from the western Gulf Coast states remaining just east of the Mississippi River. At the same time, Atlantic Ridge will remain to the east. A deep southerly flow between these two systems will continue to pump plenty of tropical moisture into the Coastal Carolinas today through tonight. Pcp water values remain well above normal, above 2 inches through tonight. Models are showing fairly widespread activity through today in a constant feed of moisture from the Atlantic waters, but show greatest QPF toward daybreak on Sat along the coast as better jet dynamics and mid to upper level support runs up through the area. Basically will see clouds and intermittent showers, some with heavy rain, along with isolated thunderstorms to continue through today into tonight. Tough to say exactly where at any given hour, but there should be a diurnal trend with showers more numerous along the coast through the overnight into early morning hours and favoring an increase inland in the afternoon. The heavier showers will produce some ponding of water on the roadways and you should remain alert for any advisories for any flood issues. Temps will once again show little diurnal range with overnight lows in the low 70s most places and rebounding to near 80 in the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Friday...Probabilities of precipitation, across the board, will remain elevated through the weekend. Not to say all moments of Saturday and Sunday will be washed out, but outdoor plans should include knowing, that occasional heavy rain with isolated lightning strikes will roam the region, with spots of ponding water on roadways introducing a hydro-planing peril. Jet-max rising north early Saturday may enhance rain- rates and coverage onto the coast and Cape Fear. Tropical infusion and balmy maritime flow will maintain a humid feel as gradually rising SSTs keep dewpoint values lofty. The MUCAPE/MLCAPE trends support isolated thunderstorms through the weekend. Pockets of stronger diabatic heating will shine as a significant player in spurring afternoon convection. It should not come as a shock that weekend FLS or SPS issuances may be needed for training or stronger cells, but wind shear profiles not supporting an organized severe TSTM threat this weekend. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 3 PM Thursday...More of this seemingly ever-persistent tropical airmass will exist much of the extended, although there may at least be breaks in the showers during the long term. Monday into early Tuesday the ridge to the east is still progged to expand to the west followed by some drying in the mid-level which will likely lead to reduced, but still non- zero POP. However, by late Tuesday and through Wednesday the ridge retreats in response to mid-level troughing digging down from the north, allowing for a return/surge of tropical moisture and once again periods of showers/tstms with heavy rainfall. There may finally be an end to this extended period of tropical air however, as this same trough that causes an uptick in rainfall potential, will drive a cold front into the area Thursday which should push through bringing some drier air late in the period. However, it is May, and this front could get hung up across the Carolinas, potentially producing even more convection chances as it serves as a focus in a high PWAT airmass. Will show lowered POP by Thursday, but cannot rule out tropical showers/tstms any day during the period. Temps will be in the low 80s for highs nearly every day, with mins right around 70, as the cloudy and humid airmass prevent large diurnal ranges. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 06Z...Low confidence forecast. Overall will see periods of VFR with periods of MVFR/VCSH today into tonight in a deep tropical moisture feed from the Atlantic waters to the south. Models show fairly good coverage today into tonight with MVFR likely. Have not mentioned any thunderstorms as storms should be isolated. Expect gusty S-SE winds at coastal terminals through tonight. Extended Outlook...Periods of MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys associated with tropical type showers and tstorms through the period. Activity will be more numerous along the coast pre-dawn hours thru mid-morning hours each day, then translate to the inland terminals midday-early evening. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 AM Friday...Southerly flow up to 15 to 20 kts will continue around the western periphery of the Bermuda High through tonight. This persistent southerly push will keep seas above SCA thresholds through tonight into Saturday. Seas will remain above 6 ft in outer waters through tonight. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Friday...Seas will remain in the 4-7 foot range and highest offshore through Saturday evening in blustery S winds. It appears that SCA flags may be allowed to drop by Sunday daybreak, as the low interacting with high pressure offshore, moves off to the north, loosening the pressure gradient along the Carolina coast. Hence Sunday the better marine day in terms of winds and seas, but throughout the weekend mariners should expected scattered showers and TSTMS, and radar updates are recommended. General shower and storm movement this weekend from south to north. Seas this weekend dominated by S-SSE waves every 7-8 seconds mixed with moderate southerly chop. Downpours will reduce local visibility to 1 NM or less on occasion. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 PM Thursday...Bermuda type high pressure offshore will be the primary feature driving marine conditions into the middle of next week. S/SW winds around this feature will be 10-15 kts with little fluctuation through the period. This persistent SW flow and long fetch around the high will create a 7-8 sec dominant wave period, with amplitudes shrinking slightly into next week. A swell deamplifies, wave heights will as well, becoming 3-5 ft Monday, and 3-4 ft Tuesday. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 12 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ250-252- 254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJC NEAR TERM...RGZ SHORT TERM...MJC LONG TERM...JDW AVIATION...RGZ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KAKQ 180800 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 400 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary stalls across northern portions of the forecast area through tonight, bringing periodic showers and thunderstorms, with the likelihood for heavy rainfall. Somewhat drier air arrives during the weekend as the upper level low pressure system weakens. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM EDT Thursday... Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday evening for much of the area... Cuurent analysis indicates upper level low pressure centered across the lower/mid MS Valley and TN Valley with upper ridge well off the SE US coast. This S to SW flow in the mid/upper levels continues to transport highly anomalous moisture over the local area (with a nearly stationary sfc boundary draped across the far nrn tier of the FA). Training storms will persist due to flow at H5 being nearly identical to the low level jet. Best forcing /UVM early this morning is in place over central/southern VA with less focing along the coast of SE VA/NE NC. Cloud tops per latest IR satellite imagery continue to show cooling aloft, maintaining the widespread showers and embedded tstms over the region. See latest FLW/FLS products for current warnings and statements over the area that have been issued recently to account for the heavy rain that has been on the order of 2-4" most areas (locally up to 5-6" since yesterday in a few spots over the northern Neck). The overall pattern does not change much today into this evening, with the upper trough over the Mid- South and a stalled frontal boundary over the northern Mid- Atlantic. Will have Flood Watch continue through midnight Fri night for now...though axis of highest/deepest moist and potential +RA may shift to ESE portions of VA and NE NC later tonight (but these areas have seen only spotty amts thus far). Highs today from the l-m60s on the lower MD ern shore to the 70s elsewhere (around 80 F in NE NC). && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 315 PM EDT Thursday... Most if not all of the FA is expected to get back into the warm sector Sat as axis of deepest moist shifts to the coast/offshore. So...highs Sat will genly be in the u70s-l80s (l-m70s on most of the eastern shore). Some potential for stronger tstms exists by Sat aftn/evening though much uncertainty remains. Storm total QPF through Sat night ranges from 2.00"-2.50" SE to 3.00"-5.00" NW. Due to the convective nature of this event, there will likely be localized areas of higher amounts, but also some areas that receive less. Sun will be warm and moderately humid w/ VRB clouds/partly sunny conditions. Will have PoPs 20-40% (highest over far SE VA- coastal NE NC)...primarily for afternoon/eve SHRAS/tstms. Highs from the u70s-l80s on the ern shore to the m80s inland. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 100 PM EDT Thursday... Unsettled wx expected to continue early in the extended forecast period then a trend toward drying/improving wx now highlighted mid week. A gradual break down of the moist SSW flow expected as westerlies aloft strengthen and finally push a (and more significant) cold front through the region (Wed). Keeping PoPs above climo Sun night through Tue (mainly 30-40%) for SHRAS...mainly diurnally driven tstms. Lowering PoPs to aob 15-30% Wed-Thu. Highs each day mainly in the 80s...w/ lows in the 60s-70F. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 AM EDT Friday... An area of widespread showers with embedded tstms currently affecting much of central and southern VA, bringing heavy downpours with IFR cigs and variable vsbys at KRIC. SE terminals genly have been dry but KPHF has had a few occasional showers from time to time with mainly MVFR conditions (mainly VFR at KORF/KECG). KSBy is firmly entrenched in IFR/LIFR conditions with vsbys of 1-2SM and cigs of 200-400 ft. Expect IFR/LIFR ceilings at SBY through the entire TAF period, at KRIC, mainly IFR conditions through mid morning, with some temporary improvement to MVFR conditions (but still periodic IFR in heavier showers/tstms through the TAF period). Elsewhere, expect MVFR/VFR conditions at KORF/KPHF/KECG as chances for showers/tstms increase by aftn and into tonight. OUTLOOK... The boundary will gradually lift N by Saturday, but shower/tstm chances will continue. Somewhat drier conditions potentially arrive by Sunday. Patchy early morning MVFR/IFR stratus will be possible on both Saturday and Sunday. Rain chances continue through early next week, as mainly afternoon/evening showers/tstms are possible on Monday and Tuesday. && .MARINE... As of 1000 PM EDT Thursday... A frontal boundary will remain stalled across the northern portions of the marine area overnight and even into Friday. This will result in winds remaining E or NE 10-15 kt or less off the MD coast and over the upper Bay. SE winds will persist over the middle to lower Bay and the remainder of the coastal waters through Fri night. Seas generally 2-4 ft; waves 1-2 ft. A brief uptick in wind speeds to around 20 kt is possible north of Chincoteague Friday aftn/eve. Wave guidance is also showing the potential for seas to reach 5 ft out past 10 nm north of Parramore Island Friday night. SCA looks marginal at best so will defer to next shift to assess whether a headline will be needed. The pressure gradient tightens on Sat resulting in an increasing southerly flow to 15 to 20 kt especially over the coastal waters. SCA conditions will be marginal for the Bay Sat/Sat night and an SCA may be needed. Potential exists again for seas to build to 5 ft out around 10-20 nm on the coastal waters. Flow becomes a little more SW Sun as a front drops down across northern VA and stalls. Bermuda high pres well offshore will keep winds SW around 15 kt through Tue with some higher gusts possible. Models suggest an area of low pressure may pass across New England Tue into Wed which could increase winds a little more with SCA possible for a time Tue and Wed. && .HYDROLOGY... Flood warnings have been issued for the James River basin. Recent heavy rain along with the expectation of more heavy rain has resulted in a forecast of minor to moderate flooding. See FLWAKQ for more details. There also is a potential for minor flooding along the Meherrin River at Lawrenceville. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Flood Watch through this evening for MDZ021>025. NC...None. VA...Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069- 075>090-092-509>522. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...LKB MARINE...TMG HYDROLOGY...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 141142 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 342 AM AKDT Mon May 14 2018 .DISCUSSION... Synopsis...A low in the Upper Tanana Valley will spin some showers into the Central and Eastern Interior today, the question is how far west will they spread. Heaviest rainfall will be in the Fortymile Country and Eastern Alaska Range where snow levels are above 3000 feet. Some snow accumulations in the Range, but not expecting much in the Fortymile Country. Showers continue on the West Coast as trough persists in the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea. Areas of stratus and fog on the Arctic Coast will be the challenge today. Breakup continues and the ice was flowing well through the Middle Yukon Sunday. Only minor nuisance high water has been reported so far, but that can change quickly, see below for details. Models...Run to run agreement is good concerning the troughing out west, but changes to the low moving into the Upper Tanana Valley will impact the short term forecast for most of the Interior. There is still good agreement on building the ridge over the AlCan through the week. Extended period solutions are a toss up, so will most likely lean toward the ensemble means for the time being. A equal blend of solutions seems to be the way to go for short term precipitation, and will lean on the previous forecast database for continuity then make only minor adjustments of the temperatures and winds. Relative Humidity output continues to be too dry for most locations, with the exception of the NAM, so will use it for the short term. Aloft...At 500 hpa...531 dam center near Nome will merge with the 528 dam low that moved from the Gulf of Anadyr yesterday to Nunivak Island this morning. The low will move over the southwest mainland and wobble around into Tuesday, then move north into the Middle Yukon Valley by Wednesday morning. A 528 dam low will move southeast across the Chukotsk peninsula to St Lawrence Island by Wednesday afternoon as the low in the Middle Yukon moves to Kotzebue Sound. Weak trough remains just north of the Arctic Coast. The 531 dam center that was in Northeast Pacific yesterday has moved over Icy Cape at 535 dam and will merge into the thermal trough in the Upper Tanana and Yukon Valleys this morning with a 537 dam center over the Yukon Territory. Ridging that extends from a 547 dam center 900 nm north of Nuiqsut over the eastern Arctic, southern Beaufort Sea, the Northwest Territories, then south to a 578 dam center over the Washington State coast will be pushed east as the low moves into the Upper Tanana and Yukon, then reforms over the AlCan Border as the low weakens and dissipates Tuesday. A 538 dam low will move southwest to Banks Island tonight reinforcing the troughing near the Arctic Coast. The ridging over the AlCan will strengthen as the center over the Southwest Mainland moves north and 565 dam heights push northwest over the Southeast Interior by Thursday afternoon. At 850 hpa...Not much change in temperatures from Ruby west this week as they will be around -5C for the most part. Warmer in the Central and Eastern Interior as trough to the west and ridging to the east pulls the Zero isotherm as far west as Ruby and north to the south slopes of the Brooks Range. Strong warm air advection late in the week will bring the +10C isotherm into the Southeast Interior. Surface...Broad area of low pressure continues over mainland Alaska. 1002 mb low in the Upper Tanana Valley has aligned with the thermal trough and extends west to Tanana this morning. Troughing persists over the Eastern Bering Sea, Bering Strait, and Chukchi Sea. High pressure over the Eastern Arctic is pushing south and southwest this morning as the center moves south to 400 nm north of Kaktovik, and the axis rotates to the west. Trough of low pressure persists over the eastern Bering Sea through the Bering Strait and the Chukchi Sea. By Tuesday morning the ridging over the Arctic will push south to the Brooks Range, and southwest to Point Lay, while low pressure persists to the south. Troughing continues in the Upper Tanana Valley and will extend west to the Middle Yukon Valley, and Lower Yukon Delta. By Wednesday morning, not much change over the Arctic, while low pressure continues over the West Coast with thermal troughing extending east over the Upper Yukon Flats, while high pressure will be pushing north into the Middle and Upper Tanana Valleys with a 1025 mb center in the Copper River Basin. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus and dense fog will be the big issue today. The 14/1145Z GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR Probability products show a well defined area that is pushing southwest into the area, and is confirmed by the observations. 1/4 mile visibility and 200 ft ceilings moved to the Eastern Arctic Coast last evening and spread to the Central Arctic Coast overnight, and expect them to move into the Point Barrow in the next couple hours. They will spread as far west as Wainwright before it stalls. Visibility is expected to improve later this morning, however low ceilings will persist over the Coast and Plains as the ridging to the north pushes south. Expect mostly clear conditions in the Brooks Range with light northeast winds. Temperatures slightly cooler, then warming slowly starting Wednesday. West Coast and Western Interior...Low pressure remains in the area, and showery weather will continue. Expect a few breaks in the clouds, with not much change in temperatures, and winds diminishing slightly, but direction should generally be the same as the last few days. Not much change in temperatures the next few days. Expect more organized showers Wednesday and Wednesday night as a low moves north through the area, and again Thursday night and Friday with another low that will send more widespread showers to the area and more than 0.50 inch of rainfall. Warmer and drier late in the week and for the coming weekend. Observers report ice was running freely in the Yukon River around Bishop Rock near Galena and all the way to Kaltag on Sunday, but that can change quickly so monitor the rivers closely. Central and Eastern Interior...Cloudy conditions will prevail today with showers in the Fortymile Country and Upper Tanana Valley. Low in the area is spinning moisture west to the Central Interior and a few sprinkles, and possibly a shower, can be expected, but no significant rainfall in the Middle Tanana Valley today. Rainfall in the Fortymile Country and the Eastern Alaska Range will range from around 0.25 to 0.75 inch with the heaviest rainfall in the upslope areas of the Eastern Alaska Range west of the Tok Cutoff. Snow at higher elevations in the Alaska range with 3 to 8 inches possible. Snow at pass elevations is also expected with around 1 inch along the Parks, Richardson, and Denali Highways, and the Denali Park Road. Breakup continues with no known issues. The mainstem rivers in the Central and Eastern Interior have progressed nicely to this point. Expect some gusty winds near the passes Tuesday, otherwise generally light winds. Temperatures a bit cooler today and Tuesday with all the clouds, then warming the remainder of the week. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .Fire Weather...Thermal trough in the Upper Tanana Valley, but with the low in the Yukon Territory spinning moisture into the area Relative Humidity Values will be above 40 percent today. Expect drying conditions the remainder of the week with Relative humidity values approaching 20 percent in the Tanana and Upper Yukon Valleys by Thursday. Potential for Thunderstorms in the Upper Tanana Valley Tuesday, then the Upper Yukon Flats east of Ft Yukon on Wednesday, but no significant outbreak expected. Winds generally less than 20 mph today with some gusty winds to 30 mph near Alaska Range Passes Tuesday, then lighter winds the remainder of the week. For the latest Fire Weather information go to www.weather.gov/arh/fire. && .Hydrology...Breakup is moving right along, ice was basically flowing free all the way to Kaltag yesterday with not issues noted at Bishop Rock near Galena. Water running high on the Koyukuk River at Bettles, but no issues as it is running 95% ice free according to observer in the area. The Chena River was running high through Fairbanks yesterday, but has continued to slowly fall through the night and not issues are expected. Buckland River near Buckland cleared early Sunday. Still not much going on with the Arctic Rivers except for some overflow that is not currently impacting any roads or communities. For the latest breakup information go to www.weather.gov/aprfc. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Warming and drying conditions with some more seasonal shower and thunderstorm activity later in the week and through the weekend in the Central and Eastern Interior. A low pressure system moving north up the West Coast will spread up to 0.50 inch of rain west of Tanana. A weak low will move north over the Eastern Arctic spreading some showers to the area on Thursday, then more showers Friday night and Saturday as the next low moves north into the area. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SDB MAY 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KOKX 130611 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 211 AM EDT Sun May 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Multiple waves of low pressure will track along a frontal boundary located south of the area through the weekend. The front will remain to our south into the midweek, possibly lifting back north late in the week into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... High pressure will briefly build in from the north through the early morning hours. Conditions will remain overcast with a low-level northeast flow being overrun by a westerly flow aloft. Patchy fog is also possible. Next batch of showers associated with next weak shortwave and jet streak could affect the region around daybreak. Latest trends have much of of this area passing to the south as the front has shifted further south than its location on Saturday. Overnight lows will be near seasonable levels, ranging from the mid 40s across the interior. to around 50 at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Limited confidence for Sunday with rainfall as high pressure noses into the area from the north, suppressing the frontal boundary well south into the Mid Atlantic region by Sunday afternoon. The forecast area will reside on the northern periphery of the warm advection rain shield with the best chance being across the NYC metro and Long Island. Rainfall amounts once again look to be light, generally less than a tenth of an inch. The combined effects of cloud cover, light rain, and northeast winds will keep the area unseasonably cool in the mid to upper 50s. The warmest locations may actually be across the interior where there is a better chance to stay dry. Low chances of light rain will continue into Sunday night with nearly seasonable lows. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Overall a persistent unsettled pattern through the period in a split flow regime. Dominant feature will be a confluent Polar/PAC jet streaking east along the southern Canadian border into New England through the week, around a large polar upper low over Hudson Bay and Northern Quebec. Meanwhile, Bermuda high pressure will remain in control off the SE US coast through the week, pumping a warm and moist airmass into the southern US and Mid Atlantic. The local region will be in the confluence of these two features, with a continuous stream of weak upper level disturbances moving through aloft, through the week. The opportunity for this pattern to break down may come in the late week/weekend as a Western low may finally begin to partially shear into the PAC flow and interact with a closed southern low sitting across the Gulf States this week. Until then, at the surface, the region will lie in the vicinity of a stalled frontal boundary, with numerous waves of low pressure riding east along it through the week. Trigger and focus for showers is not well defined on Mon and Tues, with stationary front well to the south and just weak thermal troughing across the region. A couple of polar shortwaves moving through Quebec on Tue Night/Wed and Thu, may be the trigger and buckle the flow enough to bring the stationary front and moisture/instability axis closer to the region midweek, with chances for showers and embedded tstms. It appears the region will lie on the stable side of this boundary during this period, which will present a threat for some embedded and elevated thunderstorms, but limit the threat for severe weather. Overall though, the predictability of timing and location of showers each day is low, dependent on timing of disturbances aloft and vicinity of frontal boundary to the region. The pattern potentially breaks down during the late week into weekend, with troughing developing to the west and sliding towards the east coast. This will bring potential for more unsettled weather on Friday into the weekend as the warm front lifts back towards the area and eventually a frontal system moves through. Near normal temperatures are likely on Monday with temperatures possibly warming to above normal levels Tuesday. Near seasonable temperatures are expected for mid to late week, with potential to be higher or lower depending on timing of shower activity. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A quasi-stationary front remains to the south of Long Island into tonight, as waves of low pressure ride along it and high pressure builds in over the Canadian Maritime Provinces. Low-moderate confident forecast with respect to flight category and timing of any precipitation. Generally IFR to MVFR conditions early this morning should become MVFR throughout by mid morning. It appears an area of rain impacts mainly City and Long Island terminals this afternoon, wit a lower chance elsewhere. This should bring a return to IFR conditions to the City/Long Island Terminals this afternoon - and this should linger there through the remainder of the TAF period. Elsewhere, IFR conditions should hold off until this evening. Low-moderate confidence in wind direction forecast. Winds veer from NE to E-ESE this afternoon, then back to ENE-NE tonight. Moderate-high confidence in wind speeds being less than 10KT. Also, most, if not all, terminals should have light and variable conditions during at least some point in the TAF period. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Late tonight...IFR probable, with spotty light rain or drizzle possible. .Monday...Improving to VFR by afternoon. .Monday night-Thursday...MVFR-IFR conditions likely, with some periods of LIFR or lower possible. On and off again showers are likely and some isolated thunderstorms are possible. && .MARINE... A NE to E flow will continue through Sunday night. There could be a short period late tonight through Sunday afternoon where wind on the ocean waters could gusts up to marginal SCA with seas near 5 ft. Confidence is not high enough to issue a SCA at this time, but the potential is there for a marginal event. Sub SCA conditions are expected early week, as a stationary boundary with a weak pressure gradient remains south of the waters with periodic waves of low pressure tracking along it. There is potential for marginal SCA ocean seas mid to late week as southerly swells of 3 to 5 ft begin to move in the waters. Otherwise...periods of showers and thunderstorms may pose a marine hazard Tuesday Night through late week. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic concerns are anticipated through early next week with any light rainfall that occurs. There is the possibility of periods of heavy rainfall for the middle to late week period, however predictability of timing and location of any hydrologic impacts continues to be low. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NV/DW NEAR TERM...DS/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...Maloit MARINE...NV/DW HYDROLOGY...NV/DW EQUIPMENT...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KBTV 112343 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 743 PM EDT Fri May 11 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will settle over the region tonight with relatively clear skies and light winds. This will allow for temperatures to fall into the lower and middle 30s over much of the area...with 20s expected in the northern Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. Frost is expected to develop given these conditions. A warm front south of the region on Saturday will bring a chance of showers to the southern third of Vermont with clouds expected elsewhere. Below normal temperatures will continue...but this will change on Sunday as another high pressure system builds in and brings sunshine and seasonal temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 743 PM EDT Friday...The forecast remains in good shape as of early evening. I did adjust coverage of high cirrus/cirrostratus sky cover upward somewhat per latest observational trends, using a model blend of rh progs above 300 mb through the first half of tonight. At this point it appears cloud thickness will wax and wane through time and should be thin enough not to affect current forecast minimum temperatures, but will re-assess later this evening if need be. Have a great evening. Prior discussion... Relatively clear skies and light winds tonight will set the stage for the development of frost across the North Country. Temperatures will generally fall into the lower to middle 30s across the Saint Lawrence and Champlain Valleys as well as central and south central Vermont. Over the northern Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom of Vermont lows will get down into the 20s. Since we do not issue frost or freeze headlines for the northern Adirondacks/Northeast Kingdom until the 21st of May...we are issuing a frost advisory for the remainder of the area from 2am Saturday to 8am Saturday. Areas immediately along Lake Champlain will likely be the one area that does not see a lot of frost...but you will not have to go too far inland to have temperatures be cold enough for some frost to develop. Central Vermont will have the best potential for frost with some locations getting down to about 30 degrees. There will be some increase in clouds after midnight...mainly over southern Vermont...but feeling is the clouds over the remainder of the area will not have a significant impact on temperatures. For Saturday trends in the data continue to support the warm front to our south remaining far enough south to have less and less impact on the area. At this time it now appears south central Vermont and southern Essex County New York will have the best chance at seeing some rain showers...generally a tenth of an inch or less...Saturday morning through early Saturday afternoon before this precipitation pushes south of the area. Over the remainder of the area it should be a pretty nice day...but temperatures will generally be in the 50s to lower 60s. High pressure builds back in for Saturday night and dry weather returns everywhere with clearing skies and light winds. However...air mass is not as cold as the current one and thus lows will generally be in the upper 30s to lower 40s...but around 30 in the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM EDT Friday...Dry conditions continue across the North Country right through Mother's Day as high pressure centers over the region. Highs will range from the mid 60s to low 70s under mostly sunny skies with perhaps a few/scattered cirrus passing through the day. Quiet weather persists into Sunday night with some question on cloud cover as models indicate some low/mid level moisture streaming into the region as high pressure drifts offshore and south/southwesterly flow increases. With such a dry airmass in place, it will take until after midnight for low/mid levels to saturate enough to produce clouds, but expect it won't be enough to produce any precipitation as drier air remains in place aloft. With clouds and increased winds expected, overnight lows will be very mild and generally drop only into the mid 40s and low 50s. A few spot upper 30s are possible in the colder hollows of the Adirondacks and far northeast Vermont. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 345 PM EDT Friday...High pressure will continue to dominate the North Country's weather to start next week with a warming trend expected as the high shifts off the eastern seaboard. Partly sunny skies, steep lapse rates and average 925mb temps around +16C will support highs well into 70s both Monday and Tuesday, with lows above normal in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Moving on towards mid-week, forecast uncertainty lies in the position and movement of a surface boundary and associated moisture/instability. 12Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF are coming into better agreement showing high pressure building southward from Ontario/Quebec Tuesday night, suppressing the boundary to our south and keeping the forecast area dry, but for Wednesday onward differences remain. The GFS briefly shifts the boundary north for Wednesday with showers impacting central/southern areas before moving back south as a cold front Wednesday night. Meanwhile the ECMWF holds strong with high pressure over the region through Friday. In general, the trends seem to suggest drier conditions versus wet through next week, but still plenty of time to fine tune the forecast. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 00Z Sunday...VFR through the forecast period with light winds less than 10 kts expected. SCT to occasionally BKN high cloud cover generally above 200 AGL this evening lowers into the 100-200 AGL range by 12Z Thursday before thinning after 18Z. Only exception at KRUT terminal where BKN/OVC cigs a bit lower in the 045-090 AGL range will occur in the 12-20Z time frame on Saturday with perhaps a brief passing light shower. Outlook... Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for VTZ001-002- 005-006-008>012-016>019. NY...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for NYZ026>028- 035-087. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Evenson NEAR TERM...JMG/Evenson SHORT TERM...Lahiff LONG TERM...Lahiff AVIATION...JMG  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDMX 072103 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 403 PM CDT Mon May 7 2018 .SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday/ Issued at 402 PM CDT Mon May 7 2018 Bottom Line up Front... Spotty shower and thunderstorm chances exist tomorrow. There is a chance that a few storms may be strong in southern Iowa during the evening hours tomorrow, with a slim chance for severe potential. Hail is the primary severe threat. 20z sfc analysis showed a 1023mb sfc high centered over northern Illinois. GOES-R Water vapor imagery picked up on several upper lows. For the short-term, the upper low of impact will be the one centered over Montana. Sfc analysis in this region picks up on the sfc reflection low crossing into western South Dakota. 12z Mon 850mb temps were around +10C to +12C. For 12z Tue, 850mb temps should jump to +12C to +15C as WAA accompanies the system coming off the Rockies. Compared to yesterday at this time, it appears precipitation timing has sped up slightly as the wing of 850mb theta-e advection, well- phased with solid moisture advection will be nearer to I-35 by 15z Tue... whereas yesterday, this mesoscale setup was still over west- central Iowa. In terms of model guidance, the 12z Mon NAM is a slightly faster, farther north/northeast outlier, so have leaned towards a non-NAM blend. With the faster progression trend of this system, the chance for strong thunderstorms has popped up a bit in the far south- central/southwestern portion of the DMX CWA. There does appear to be a surge of moisture advection/moisture flux convergence riding along the nose of a LLJ that races northward from eastern Kansas and may clip SW IA during peak heating. LLJ keeps pumping north and eastward overnight into Wednesday morning. Kept thunder going as overturning convection processes in play from 06z Wed-12z Wed. .LONG TERM.../Tuesday night through Monday/ Issued at 402 PM CDT Mon May 7 2018 Bottom Line up Front... Widespread Thunderstorm chances exist Thursday into Saturday. At this time, the threat for severe weather is generally low. The threat for flooding issues may become a concern across northern Iowa...especially places currently dealing with flood/river flood issues. Thursday Into Next Weekend... Long-range models still trying to take focus on the system slated to impact Iowa for this weekend. Disagreement still remains amongst the medium to long-range models, so confidence in mesoscale features are low to medium. Synoptically, the solution that presented itself yesterday seems to have locked in... The large upper low currently located around 1000km off the Pacific coastline will establish itself as a closed upper low near the Four Corners Region by Saturday. The newer development that seems to be locking on is this upper low will stall out over the southwestern US into the beginning of next week... the implications of which will be discussed below. Additionally, models still picking up on an impulse ejecting ahead of the upper low mentioned above and passing though Iowa sometime Friday. Both the 12z Mon GFS and 12z Mon ECMWF hint at this solution. Both models also rapidly advect moist air into Iowa via a 50kt LLJ that surges into southern Iowa. PWATs make it to the 1.5 inch range in Iowa, with warm cloud thickness a widespread 3500m... so could see some moderate precip amounts. A few rivers in northern Iowa are still at flood stage, so an additional .5 to 1.0 inch of rain would obviously not help alleviate flooding. Another surge of moisture makes it into Iowa Saturday. Interestingly, this setup is somewhat similar to last week, with the multiple sfc lows and a warm front/stationary boundary to serve as a trigger for potential convection. At this time, the boundary appears weaker than it did last week and may possibly be located from Creston through Dubuque or so. Confidence not high in this placement as still a lot of time for shifting... but if this setup holds severe weather potential will need to be monitored. Long-range models are now kicking a sizable 1020mb sfc high off the Rockies across the Dakotas. With the upper low potentially stagnating over the southwestern US, quiet weather may be on tap for Sunday into the middle of next week as we remain under the influence of this high. With the high to our east, we would be on the return flow side, so would expect persistent temperatures to continue in the mid 70s to low 80s across Iowa. && .AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon/ Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon May 7 2018 High confidence in continued VFR categories throughout this TAF period. Winds will be sustained around 10 kts, with occasional gusts near 15kts this afternoon... decreasing to under 10 kts after sunset... and then rising to over 10 kts around 14z to 15z Tuesday. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kotenberg LONG TERM...Kotenberg AVIATION...Kotenberg  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMTR 070047 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 547 PM PDT Sun May 6 2018 .SYNOPSIS...A weak system passing to our north will allow for seasonably cool conditions across much of the area this afternoon. Building high pressure will allow for a warming trend on Monday and Tuesday before cooler temperatures return on Wednesday. Another warming trend is expected late week and into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION...as of 12:55 PM PDT Sunday...This morning's low clouds along the coast quickly mixed out across much of the area by midday, revealing partly cloudy skies for this Sunday afternoon. Despite the sunshine, temperatures are generally running at or several degrees cooler than this time 24 hours ago. The cooler temperatures can be attributed to a shortwave passing through northern California that has aided in the decreased geopotential heights and 1000-500 mb thickness values. Today's shortwave will be replaced on Monday with a ridge just off the West Coast. Subsidence and warming of the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere will likely cause the marine layer to compress over the next 24 hours, which in turn may limit tomorrow morning's marine stratus inland intrusion. Consequences to the compression of the marine layer would be lower ceilings for those coastal areas that do see stratus, as well as the potential for coastal drizzle. Temperatures are expected to respond accordingly to the ridge with many locations forecast to warm by about 4 to 8 degrees for Monday afternoon with widespread 70s and 80s for interior locations. Similar conditions are expected on Tuesday as the ridge builds and axis moves east into the Intermountain West. The warming trend will cease on Wednesday as forecast models advertise an approaching trough. At this point, most if not all areas in the CWA should remain dry. Aside the cooler afternoon temperatures, this trough will likely lead to a deepening marine layer along the coast. By late week another ridge will build in the eastern Pacific and gradually approach the West Coast. Temperatures will climb as heights rise with more widespread 80s for interior locations. Wouldn't be surprised if some 90 degree readings return to locations such as Pinnacles National Park or southern Monterey County by next weekend. && .AVIATION...As of 5:47 PM PDT Sunday...VFR, greater than 6 miles visibility reported per metar observations and webcams back this up showing good visibilities as well. Thick cirrus clouds are streaming west to east associated with a jet streak and increasing upper level divergence; the ECMWF forecasts decreasing mid to upper level relative humidity late tonight and Monday, once the jet streak passes by cirrus clouds should thin out. Cirrus this evening, reducing outgoing nocturnal radiative cooling, may slow the development and limit the coverage of coastal stratus extending VFR at least into the evening. GOES-16 MVFR probability does show some marine layer stratus over the coastal waters while northerly and westerly pressure gradients, resulting in locally gusty W-NW winds, are both running approx 3 mb. The marine layer slopes from 1,300 feet Point Sur to 2,000-2,500 feet Bay Area based on profiler data. Some restoration of lower level thermal ridging occurred today, little change in strength is forecast tonight, then thermal ridging strengthens Monday and Monday night thus the marine layer should become more compressed Monday and Monday night. 00z tafs continue with VFR for the evening, it's a near high confidence forecast. 00z tafs with exception of tempo MVFR cig KOAK Monday morning continue with VFR tonight as well, but it's low to moderate confidence for late tonight and Monday morning. Vicinity of KSFO...VFR, westerly wind gusting to mid to upper 20 knot range til about 03z this evening. Westerly wind becoming similarly gusty again Monday by 21z. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR, a few patches of stratus are possible by late evening and/or Monday morning. Winds becoming mainly light W-SW by mid evening, onshore winds becoming locally gusty Monday afternoon. && .MARINE...as of 4:44 PM PDT Sunday...Moderate northwesterly winds will persist through Monday with locally stronger winds off of the Sonoma and Santa Cruz County coastlines as well as off of the Big Sur coast during the afternoon and evening. Winds will diminish slightly Tuesday as high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific. Generally light northwest swells will continue with locally steeper fresh swell. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tngt...SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 3 AM SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 3 AM SCA...Mry Bay until 12 AM SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: Rowe AVIATION: Canepa MARINE: RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KBRO 011748 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1248 PM CDT Tue May 1 2018 .DISCUSSION...Cloud cover has persisted longer than expected and isn't showing much sign of clearing within the next couple of hours upstream (especially along the coast). Knocked 3 degrees F off today's highs across the board for land areas. Also extended slight chance PoP's out to 20Z to handle current trends. && .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...A few light, passing showers may still occur for the next couple of hours at the terminals. Winds remain on the breezy side. Per satellite trends and RAP/BUFKIT forecast soundings, not expecting BRO to break out of MVFR ceilings this afternoon for any appreciable amount of time. MFE already at VFR; lower confidence for HRL, but think CIG's will eventually raise/scatter out for a few hours. Short-term guidance rather insistent on bringing IFR ceilings into BRO and HRL early this evening, with MFE more likely to remain MVFR further inland. SE winds stay elevated overnight as pressure gradient tightens locally. Winds kick up to gusty mid- morning on Wednesday. CIG's lifting to MVFR probable. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 642 AM CDT Tue May 1 2018/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION...Low clouds continue to spread across the region, trapped underneath a drier inversion. LLVL jet continues to race through the region, with 40 to 50 knot winds from 2000 to 8000 feet. Some mixing of gusty winds down to the sfc is expected today, with gusts approaching 25kts. Current low cigs will lift through the morning, with VFR conditions expected this afternoon. There is some light drizzle in the area, which will let up later this morning. Windy conditions are expected to continue overnight tonight, with southerly winds of 15G25kts expected to continue. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CDT Tue May 1 2018/ SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday): H5 trough continues to drift across the intermountain west, with the latest ridge well off to the east of our area. Dry air continues to draw into the region above 5000 feet, keeping a strong cap on the atmosphere. Surface low pressure developing across western KS is increasing the gradient and inducing a LLVL jet along the coast. 40 to 50 knot winds are noted between 2000 and 8000 feet, racing northward. The strongest core of the jet is above the inversion, so mixing of the strongest energy will be held back some today. Tighter sfc gradient will still mean some gusty winds during the afternoon. Ample moisture trapped under the cap and daytime heating will cause some bubbling up of showers along the coast, although wind shear will inhibit any meaningful development. Any showers that can form will be very weak and brief, not enough to keep my flowers alive. Low pressure remains across Kansas tonight, keeping the gradient tightened up along the coast. The llvl jet will shift slightly offshore tonight, keeping the breeziest conditions offshore. Another warm and mostly cloudy day expected Wednesday with moisture still trapped underneath the inversion. Will keep an eye on light shower chances for tomorrow morning, but threat looks too low for overall forecast for now. LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday): 500mb low/trough across the southwest United States and northwest Mexico Wednesday will become elongated Thursday before developing into a shortwave trough on Friday and moving eastward across the state Saturday. Rain chances should remain to the north and west of the CWA Wed night through Thursday before convection across southwest Texas and northeast Mexico begins to develop and move into the far western portions of deep south Texas Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase across the area Saturday as a weak cold front moves southward across south Texas. Rain chances will diminish Sat night into Sunday as the upper level trough moves eastward and northwest flow aloft brings drier air into the Rio Grande valley. Breezy conditions will continue Wed night into Thursday before the pressure gradient weakens across the lower Texas coast Friday. Temperatures will be near normal Wed night through Friday before becoming slightly below normal this weekend as the increase in clouds and rain chances limits diurnal heating across deep south Texas. MARINE (Now through Wednesday): Advisories expire at 5AM, and will not be extending as winds remain in the 15 to 20 knot range, and are forecast to remain there through the day. Southeast flow continues to move northward towards developing low pressure in Kansas. LLVL jet will shift just offshore overnight, and with some nocturnal marine mixing, will bring breezy conditions for the open Gulf waters tonight and possibly into Wednesday. Will likely need to reintroduce Advisories for the Gulf waters for the overnight hours. Breezy conditions will keep wave action up today, with waves above 5 feet and a significant chop on the Laguna. Wednesday night through Saturday...Moderate to strong southeast winds will prevail across the coastal waters Wed night into Thursday before the pressure gradient weakens across the lower Texas coast Thurs night. Moderate southeast winds will prevail across the western Gulf of Mexico Thurs night into Friday. A weak cold front will move into south Texas Saturday and winds will back to the east and diminish. Small craft advisories will likely be needed for the Laguna Madre on Thursday and for the offshore waters Wed night through Thurs night before winds and seas diminish Thurs night into Friday. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 53-Schroeder/54  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KVEF 042137 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 237 PM PDT Wed Apr 4 2018 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry weather will remain through tonight and Thursday. Expect unsettled weather conditions this weekend as a low pressures moves inland. Primary concerns over the weekend will be strong winds on Saturday; however, shower chances will increase across the area as well, especially along the Sierra. Dry and calm conditions will return early next week before strong winds return Tuesday. Expect periods of high clouds and well above normal Temperatures through the weekend and into next week. && .SHORT TERM...Through Friday. Rather low impact weather through the end of the work week. Zonal flow aloft will remain through Friday, with a few weak shortwaves translating through it. These small disturbances - ejected from the base of an upstream upper low - will lead to enhanced periods of high to mid clouds through Friday. Increased sky coverage and cloud thickness will create a bit of challenge when it comes to forecasting diurnal temperature ranges. While the area will experience increasing heights aloft and increasing temperatures through the rest of the week, the cloud cover may limit the full potential of the afternoon temperatures. Forecast temperatures will increase 6-10 degrees above normal to cap off the work week. Unsettled weather will begin to creep back into the forecast Friday in the way of breezy to locally strong winds ahead of the next synoptic disturbance. Western portions of the Mojave Desert will likely experience the strongest winds on Friday between 20-30 MPH and gusts approaching 40 MPH. This may require feature wind headlines and will need to be monitored over the next couple of forecast cycles. Elsewhere, breezy south-southwest wind regime will develop. In addition to the increased winds ahead of this weekend's system, there will be an increased chance for showers for Friday, mainly over the east Sierra and the northern zones. With snow levels around 10,000 feet, most of the precip will fall as rain. .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday. An incoming shortwave is expected to bring widespread gusty winds to much of the region Saturday afternoon along with significant precipitation to the southern Sierra Saturday as an AR pushes mainly into the Pacific Northwest. There will still be enough influence from the deeper moisture to impact the southern Sierra with significant rainfall which will occur over mainly the western slopes, but we could see enough spillover to bring good rain to the eastern slopes and possibly the northern Owens Valley. Snow levels will remain quite high on Saturday, but could drop to around 7500 feet toward the end of the event. At this time, precipitation impacts look to be rather minimal. This shortwave will quickly move through the area and precipitation east of the Owens Valley looks to be rather minimal as much of the precipitation will be blocked by the Sierra and the lack of any significant forcing. However, Lincoln County may see an increase in showers Saturday evening as forcing does increase along a cold front that will move through the area. Much drier air will push into behind the front with dry conditions expected Sunday and Monday. Gusty southwest winds ahead of a cold front will impact much of the area Saturday afternoon with the strongest winds across San Bernardino, Clark, southern Lincoln, and Mohave Counties. Strong thermal and surface pressure gradients combined with upper support should allow for fairly widespread advisory level winds during the afternoon. Enhanced downslope winds off the Spring Mountains may also lead to higher gusts over the western portions of the Vegas Valley. Although there will be some gusty northwest winds behind the front, it does not look to be widespread and the highest winds will likely remain over Esmeralda and central Nye Counties. Another fast moving trough will then swing across Tuesday with southwest winds stirring up again and possibly becoming quite strong in the lee of the southern Sierra and across south central Nevada. The trough is forecast to move over the Rockies by Wednesday morning leaving weak ridging and fair weather Wednesday ahead of another trough lining up to move inland. Even though each trough will bring a slight temperature dip, readings will remain above normal with highs in the 70s and 80s for all zones except the mountains. && .AVIATION...For McCarran...Light winds following diurnal trends anticipated through Thursday morning. Increased speeds likely develop Thursday afternoon, with speed between 10-12 kts. VFR conditions with mid to high clouds. CIGs between 15-20 kft with skies fluctuating between SCT and BKN. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Light winds following diurnal trends through Thursday morning. Southerly wind regime will develop across the region Thursday afternoon; Wind speeds will generally fall between 5-15 knots, except at sites across the western Mojave Desert (KDAG) where speeds will range from 15-25 knots. Generally, CIGs between 15-20 kft with skies fluctuating between SCT and BKN are expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Boothe LONG TERM.............Gorelow For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KLMK 021727 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 127 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 .Forecast Update... Issued at 1152 AM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Well...pesky showers continue along the TN border with llvl clouds holding on firm. Have small pops down south today while NE sfc winds of 7 to 12 mph are keeping CAA going and MVFR ST/SC clouds with cloud depth based on PIREPS of 1500 feet. I've lowered temps 1-2 degrees, but would not be surprised some glimpses of late day sunshine with higher sun angle working on the ST deck. Going to reduce pops before 00z tonight as warm front is too far south to have precip up to Ohio river before 00z today. Main show is Tuesday, gusty daytime winds, possible isolated late day supercells and QLCS for the evening. Bust for sure. && .Short Term...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue Apr 02 2018 ...Severe Thunderstorms Possible Tuesday Afternoon and Evening... ...Very warm and windy Tuesday Afternoon.... Well...today atmospere is dealing with ene to nely winds and llvl backing winds keeping low cloud deck in. Temps are fighting CAA and ceilings have climbed from 800 ft when day shift began to 1600 ft at SDF at 1 pm. PIPEPS have revealed a 1100 ft cloud thickness. Expect late day high in 48 to 53 range at most spots. Boundary along the TN state line will bring isol to sct pops late afternoon before beginning to lift with llvl jet response late on this evening. A fast-moving mid-level wave will quickly move off to the east this morning and take its deeper moisture with it. An east-west band of light to moderate showers was located right over central Kentucky early this morning. This is associated with the 850 mb front. Frontogenetical forcing will subside between now and 13z, and the showers will gradually diminish as they slide southeast. Surface high pressure was centered over Illinois this morning, and that feature is forecast to move east over IN/OH today. As lee cyclogenesis occurs with an increasing LLJ over the southern Plains, central KY/southern IN will see a very brief period of dry weather through late afternoon/early evening. With plenty of clouds and an easterly sfc wind, highs will likely range through the 50s. Warmer return flow and moisture transport do increase this evening and overnight. This evening, some scattered showers may start to work in from the WSW. Toward midnight and later, MUCAPE increases above 500 J/kg thanks to steepening mid-level lapse rates. Convective activity is likely to increase on the nose of a 45-50 kt LLJ after midnight, mainly north of the Western Kentucky/Bluegrass parkways. So scattered thunderstorms look most likely across the western/northern CWA during the early morning hours. By sunrise, the bulk of the convection should be pushing into central Indiana. This will place the forecast area within the warm sector on Tuesday, with precip coverage diminishing. Tuesday will be a very warm and windy day ahead of a strong low pressure system. Wind Advisory criteria could be met on Tuesday ahead of the front. Temperatures will soar well into the 70s. Tuesday into Tuesday evening, an upper level trough will move across the central Plains into the Midwest. A surface low is forecast to track through Illinois and northern Indiana, dragging a strong cold front through the lower Ohio Valley Tuesday evening. Confidence is increasing in severe weather late Tuesday afternoon through the evening hours. The latest model forecasts are more aggressive with mixed-layer instability in the afternoon ahead of the cold front. Both the GFS and NAM pull a fair amount of dry air into the mid and even low levels by 18z, such that the low-level moisture/capping inversion is erased. At Louisville for instance, MLCAPE could reach 1000 J/kg by 18z, perhaps falling back into the 500-1000 J/kg range just ahead of the front. 0-6 km shear is around 50 kts, with up to 40 kts in the lowest 1 km at 00z Tuesday evening. Effective SRH also increases to around 300 m2/s2. This is likely to be a strong to severe QLCS with damaging winds as the main threat. A few embedded tornadoes will also be possible, particularly with bowing segments. The strong shear is mostly unidirectional, but sufficient for supercellular development should some cells initiate ahead of the main line. We encourage folks to review their severe weather safety plan today. Check the batteries in your NOAA Weather Radio. Have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. Convection tonight through Tuesday night may also result in some flooding issues given recent rainfall and current soil moisture levels. && .Long Term...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Apr 02 2018 ...Freezing Temperatures Likely Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning... Strong surface high builds in quickly behind the front Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures will crash into the 35-40 degree range by daybreak Wednesday. Wednesday looks breezy and chilly with clearing skies. For agricultural interests, sub-freezing temperatures are likely Wednesday night. The current forecast features Thursday morning lows in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees. The sheltered valleys could dip into the mid 20s. Skies will stay mostly clear and surface high pressure builds directly over the region. A couple of weather systems could bring additional precipitation to the region Friday into Saturday. Confidence in this portion of the forecast remains quite low. But some light precipitation looks possible on Friday as a cold front works through the area. There is somewhat of a better chance for precip Friday night, and it could be in the form of snow. However, there is just not good model agreement on how to handle the Friday cold front as it pushes south of Kentucky. Some models have hinted at another low developing and tracking east along the boundary, with a band of snow on the north side of the residual boundary. However, the N-S placement has varied widely, so will feature lower PoPs for now and blended temperatures. && .Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 115 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Surface high pressure centered over NW OH at midday is not enough to keep the OH Valley clear of low end MVFR and even still some IFR stratus. Some breaks and thin spots in the overcast showing up on visible satellite imagery, but these will be few and far between during the remainder of the daylight hours. As the surface and high moves east, southerly winds will return to the area, but with a temperature inversion and a low-level jet setting up, LLWS will be a concern from around 03/06Z - 03/15Z. Adding to this issue is the possibility of thunderstorms for HNB, SDF, and LEX. Later in the period, as a warm front pushes into the region, after the inversion mixes out, surface winds will gust over 30kts, and thunderstorms are expected to become more widespread, especially during the SDF planning period. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Update...JDG Short Term...EBW Long Term...EBW Aviation...JBS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KGRR 271150 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 750 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 A milder pattern with highs in the 50s is expected this week before cold air returns again over the weekend into next week. Widespread rain this morning, associated with a slow moving front, will end from northwest to southeast this afternoon. High pressure behind the front leads to dry weather tonight and Wednesday, then low pressure moving through the Ohio Valley Region on Thursday will bring another chance of rain. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Ensemble of hi res short range guidance has rain ending north and west of GRR mid to late morning, but lingering south and east of GRR into the early to mid afternoon. The Jackson area will be the last to see the rain end - around 4 pm. Extensive clouds are expected to linger after the rain ends, so will be conservative with temps and have highs in the lower 50s. Best potential for clearing tonight is north and west of GRR, but this may lead to some areas of fog/stratus developing as winds diminish. Wednesday is looking like the best day of the week with high pressure providing decent prospects for sun once any morning stratus departs. Highs in the mid to upper 50s expected. Models differ on coverage, timing, and amount of rain for Thursday related to the low moving along the front situated over the Ohio Valley. Highest pops/main chance of rain will be south and east of GRR where potential for a quarter to half inch will exist, but for now will have only chance pops until models come into better agreement. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 We'll see a rapid succession of weather systems move across the Great Lakes during the long term. Rain will be moving out of the cwa Thursday night setting up a dry Friday. Precipitation chances quickly move back in Friday night. The gfs is quicker and deeper with a low moving across the UP compared to the ecmwf. We'll keep chc pops going from Friday nigh through Saturday night to account for the model timing issues. Both models bring some light precipitation to the cwa as the cold front moves through, just at different times. High pressure noses in behind the cold front Sunday. The ecmwf develops a low on the front over the Tennessee Valley and moves it northeast along the frontal boundary Sunday night, which could clip the southern cwa. The gfs doesn't do that and is dry. Confidence is low on pcpn late in the weekend. Highs will be in the 40s through the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 750 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Widespread IFR today as rain impacts the area, although cigs improving to MVFR this afternoon mainly from GRR to the north and west. Predominately MVFR conditions this evening, but areas of IFR probably developing again after midnight as stratus and/or fog reforms. Could see some LIFR to VLIFR vsbys in fog after 09Z, but confidence in that is low at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Latest wind and wave guidance suggests that the Small Craft Advisory north of Grand Haven is marginal. It may be able to be cancelled early. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 321 PM EDT Mon Mar 26 2018 Rain will spread into West Michigan after sunset, with periods of steady rain continuing through Tuesday morning. Rain amounts are expected to range between 1/2 to 1 inch, and occur over a widespread area. This rainfall will cause only minor rises in river levels. Dry weather is expected Tuesday through Friday. River levels have fallen considerably since flooding occurred in late February and early March. No flood warnings are in effect. Water levels are expected to rise near bankfull along Sycamore Creek and along the Portage River through mid week due to the rain expected tonight and Tuesday, but flooding is not expected. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. LM...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Meade SHORT TERM...Meade LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...Meade HYDROLOGY...HLO MARINE...Meade  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDMX 222047 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 347 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018 .SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Friday/ Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018 Bottom Line up Front... Confidence remains high in winter system to impact Iowa Friday through Saturday. Accumulating snow and strong winds likely in northern Iowa, and moderate to heavy rainfall in central to southern Iowa. 20z GOES-R Water vapor imagery picking up on huge upper low still spinning off the British Columbia coastline. On the southern side of this low, an impulse is being ejected onshore in California. Models have been in good agreement with propagating this upper low through the Four Corners tonight, and into the Plains States by Friday afternoon. Models also continue strong agreement with developing a sfc low in response... placing the low over western KS by 00z Sat and northern Missouri by 12z Sat. Overall, there have been little changes to the overall mesoscale features of this event. There is still a huge slug of low-level frontogenetical forcing, especially evident at 900mb that sets up over southern to south-central IA. With this system tilting northwestward with height, there is good response with 700mb frontogenetical forcing further northward along the I-80 corridor. Confidence increasing slightly in being able to pin down a slug of strong isentropic adiabatic ascent propagating through southern Iowa at some point during the 06z Sat to 12z Sat timeframe. Thus, may see some higher localized rainfall rates and even some thunder. Precip type across northern Iowa will be very touchy. Very temperature-dependent. Trend is to be slightly cooler with sfc temps, which would drop accumulating snow slightly further south, closer to the Highway 30 corridor. Snow ratios also touchy with this event. Obviously, the cooler temps would support higher snow ratios... but if the track shifts 40 miles northward, snow ratios could drop to 4:1 range... which would hammer snow amounts. For this reason, have held current Winter Storm Watch as is, anticipating overnight shift making final adjustments. Our far northeastern counties may need to be upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning, while the rest of the Watch area could be transitioned to a Winter Weather Advisory. Factoring into impacts will be easterly winds in the 15 to 25 mph range. This would reduce visibility to one mile or less... possibly even 1/4 mile during periods of more heavy snow. Going backwards in time, slight concern event start time may need to be pushed earlier. The GFS is especially picking up on band of isentropic ascent phasing with deep enough low-level moisture for cloud thicknesses to support light precip by 15z Fri. Will watch in next shift, but cannot rule out earlier start time of any headlines. .LONG TERM.../Saturday night through Thursday/ Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018 System will have departed by Saturday evening with weak surface ridging sliding into the state. Model sounding continue to indicate plenty of low level moisture lingering, especially the south and west, therefore cloudiness is expected to persist into the overnight and Sunday for much of the area. Exception may be northeast areas where drying will extend a bit deeper into the boundary layer. Warm advection begins into Sunday as next large trof moves onto the west coast and into the intermountain region. Increasing isentropic lift into the afternoon produces some deeper saturation across the far west by later in the afternoon with some sprinkles/light rain possible. Strong theta-e advection and moisture transport arrive late Sunday night into Monday which should spur shower development across central Iowa during the early morning hours on Monday. Elevated instability will increase across the area on Monday with the strong southerly flow with some isolated thunderstorms expected with the shower activity. By late Monday afternoon, low pressure will be approaching southwest Iowa near the Omaha area with surface instability edging into the southwest CWA. Models would indicate some potential for stronger deep convection, nearly surface based in eastern Nebraska into Kansas by late afternoon. Some of this may be able to reach the far southwest portions of the forecast area by Monday evening, although this time of year, weakening usually occurs after sunset limiting overall severe threat. Much of the rest of the forecast area will see widespread showers and some thunderstorms as the surface front passes through the state Monday night. Lingering showers will persist into the southeast on Tuesday before the system departs and subsidence increases. Some quieter weather is expected into the middle of next week with seasonable temperatures expected. && .AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning/ Issued at 647 AM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018 Thin band of light rain possibly mixed with a frozen mix moving across IA through 19z associated with warm air advection. Mid level clouds will remain through the period though a few breaks in the cloud cover will be possible. Winds remain generally east through the period as well and under 12kts. Major changes on the way for Friday 03/23...especially aft 18z. Those concerns will be address in next few packages. /rev && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Saturday afternoon for IAZ006-007-016-017-026>028-038-039-050. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kotenberg LONG TERM...Cogil AVIATION...Small  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KLOT 210757 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 257 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018 .SHORT TERM... 255 AM CDT Through Thursday Night... An impressive and large synoptic scale system from top to bottom continues to take shape in the Mid-Atlantic region this morning. The cold conveyor belt associated with this deepening system is wrapped over the Great Lakes into the Ohio River Valley, with 850mb temperatures on regional soundings last evening running around the 10th percentile for late March. This colder air above and into the boundary layer combined with clouds at least through midday will provide temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal for northern Illinois and northwest Indiana. The coolest values that will stay shy of 40 degrees look to be in lake adjacent counties. Winds will finally diminish and quickly late this afternoon and early this evening due to high pressure building in. Some lake effect clouds may linger into northwest Indiana. Lows of lower to mid 20s are forecast for much of the CWA. The light winds continue into Thursday with a lake breeze likely. Apart from this lake adjacent cooling, temperatures may rebound as much as to near 50 for highs, but that will depend on any high cloud thickness associated with a short wave dropping southeast over the Mississippi River Valley. MTF && .LONG TERM... 343 PM CDT Wednesday night through Tuesday... The focus for this period will be the potential for snow Friday night into Saturday morning. The end of the work week should be fairly quiet with low amplitude upper level NW flow in place. Upper heights begin to rise as an upper level ridge approaches the region. A weak vort max embedded in the NW flow will pass SW of the area Thu and shouldn't do much more than increase the cloud cover over the SWrn portion of the FA. A short wave is forecast to under cut the ridge for the end of the week. This system should pass well south of the area and has trended south early this week. The GFS and ECMWF have continued their southward trend with the new 12Z runs and if the GFS verifies, all but the extreme SWrn portion of the CWA will be dry. But the ECMWF is farther north and has precip across the entire CWA. Since temps aloft will be below freezing, p-types will be modulated based on SFC temps and due to Erly flow bringing in a steady supply of dry low level air in advance of this system, dew point depressions should be sizable and wet bulbs are forecast to be below freezing. This means that precip should quickly transition to snow late Friday night. The eventual amount of snow will depend on many things including onset timing...which has been steadily trending later and later. The slower the system gets means the less snow potential because more of the precip will occur during the day Sat when SFC temps will rise above freezing. Precip should exit the SErn zones Sat evng. The upper level ridge becomes re-established for the end of the wknd behind this system with the SFC ridge extending SW into the Midwest from the high centered across Quebec. Upper flow transitions to SW flow with the departing ridge as a long wave trough moves onshore along the West Coast. A short wave will get ejected from the SWrn US trough for early next week but with considerable differences in strength, timing and location it is much too early to be specific other than to say that there should be precip in the area somewhere in the Mon-Wed time frame. And with min temps near freezing, the p-type forecast could be tricky. 2% && .AVIATION... For the 06Z TAFs... Primary forecast concern for this period will continue to be winds. Winds which should remain generally northerly through the remainder of the night and through the daytime hours tomorrow. With an inverted trough extending from low pressure over the Upper Ohio Valley through north-central IL and a weak finer scale ridge along the west coast of Lake Michigan, wind direction will be a little difficult to pin down exactly if it will be a little west of north or a little east of north. At 06z, the dividing line between NNW and NNE is between ORD/DPA and MDW/GYY. Expect that there may be some variation to wind direction through the late morning hours when the low over the Upper Ohio Valley will begin to merge with the stronger low off of the Mid-Atlantic coast and a ridge of high pressure begins to build across the Mid Mississippi Valley. This will, ultimately, lead to a weaker pressure gradient over nrn IL/IN and set up the possibility for a lake breeze to develop, or perhaps, just some lake influence, leading to more of a true NE wind direction in the afternoon. In general, confidence in wind direction is only low-to-moderate through the morning hours. Through the late afternoon and evening hours, the ridge will build east across region, leading to a trend toward lgt/vrbl winds which should then persist through the overnight hours. Otherwise, the only other concern is some lingering mvfr cigs for the remainder of the overnight hours. Latest obs indicate the low-level clouds scattering, but there could still be brief periods of mvfr cigs. Otherwise, cloud cover will trend to operationally insignificant through the morning and then become skc for tomorrow night. && .MARINE... 343 PM CDT Small Craft Advisory continues into Wednesday evening across the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan. Gusty northeast winds to 30 knots into tonight will gradually weaken on Wednesday, and back to the north. High waves will linger into Wednesday afternoon for areas north of Calumet Harbor, and into the evening for areas to the east. May see another period of gusty winds and elevated waves this weekend, as low pressure passes by to the south of the area. JJW && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...IN nearshore waters until 10 PM Wednesday. Small Craft Advisory...IL nearshore waters until 4 PM Wednesday. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDMX 080924 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 324 AM CST Thu Mar 8 2018 .SHORT TERM.../Today through Tonight/ Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Mar 8 2018 Upper low pressure which moved across the western Great Lakes region on Wednesday will be moving east towards Pennsylvania today. Despite the transition to the east, upper northwest flow will persist today. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure will move into Iowa today. Thermal profiles will remain near to slightly warmer than Wednesday and temperatures will remain seasonably cold with highs in the mid to upper 20s north to the mid to upper 30s south. Generally mostly sunny skies to start the day except for the far southwest where a few clouds are passing through. Cirrus overtopping the surface ridge may arrive by this afternoon. The forecast area will remain dry through this evening. The combination of a short wave passing across Minnesota and Wisconsin and warm advection developing in the wake of the departing ridge may result in light snow developing across South Dakota and approaching northwest Iowa by late tonight. Have kept the the forecast dry with any precipitation chances remaining to the northwest. .LONG TERM.../Friday through Wednesday/ Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Mar 8 2018 Bottom Line up Front... Sensible weather impacts confined to this weekend via a potentially low-impact wintry weather system. General trend towards above normal temperatures next week. Saturday through Sunday... An upper low currently located off the Pacific Coast looks to come onshore today, riding along the U.S./Canada border and dropping down through the Plains Region Saturday into Sunday. Models initialize well with this low, but are somewhat struggling with run-to-run consistency of its track on the leeward side of the Rockies... dropping confidence to medium/low-medium. Continued from the previous AFD, the GFS has been the most bullish with this system as it develops a closed sfc low which it propagates through Nebraska and into western Missouri Saturday into Sunday morning. The 00z Thu ECMWF/00z NAM tend to have a more flatter wave/inverted trough versus the closed sfc low of the GFS. At this point, find it difficult to back either of the general solution camps, so have gone with a blend. Obviously, if the GFS solution pans out, snowfall amounts and subsequent impacts will have to be increased. Forecast sounding analysis keeps low-level cloud thicknesses around 3kft and under through around 00z Sun. Therefore have gone with drizzle for ptype as temps into the 40s across most of the CWA. Lower levels gradually begin to Saturday evening into Saturday night. Temperatures also fall to near to below freezing Saturday night. GFS and NAM sounding profiles drop to below-freezing aloft, with no warm nose aloft. With CAA continuing, warm nose aloft to not develop Sunday, so keeping with either rain or snow mix and have nixed sleet/freezing rain mention. Even with the more ambitious general forcing with the GFS, profile does not saturate very much per the GFS soundings. So finding it plausible to begin a downward trend to QPF.... and subsequently any snow accumulation. Impact-wise, impacts from this system appear to be minimal at this time. By Sunday late morning/early afternoon, temperatures should be near to above freezing across most of the CWA. This means any snow that may have accumulated should melt off of most roadways and surfaces. Impacts will likely arise from slippery surfaces and reduced visibility confined to the time period of Saturday night through Sunday morning. Monday and Beyond... Behind this weekend's system, long-range models have been extremely consistent in blasting a 1035mb sfc high pressure through the upper Midwest. Slight forecast changes have been to slow the propagation of this high. Yesterday's 00z runs had the high near western Iowa by 06z Tue. Today's 00z runs have the high near western Iowa by 06z Wed. So, have lowered Wednesday and Thursday highs in anticipation of WAA being delayed until Thu-Fri. By late-week, as this high propagates east of the CWA, 850mb temps of +10C may make it to Iowa... which would likely translate to highs in the 50s and probably 60s across Iowa. && .AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night/ Issued at 1128 PM CST Wed Mar 7 2018 Band of low clouds continues to diminish in size tonight and this will continue as subsidence increases over the state. Expect VFR conditions for the forecast period at TAF sites with northwest surface flow through tomorrow before becoming light tomorrow night. Visibilities will remain unrestricted for the duration of the forecast. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Donavon LONG TERM...Kotenberg AVIATION...Cogil  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCAR 062106 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 406 PM EST Tue Mar 6 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will begin to retreat into the maritimes as strong low pressure will approach from the southwest later Wednesday then slowly cross the region Thursday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The model guidance is in good agreement through the near term period of the forecast. A high pressure ridge extends from the Canadian Maritimes through Maine into the North Atlantic along the Eastern Seaboard. A new low is forecasted to develop along the coast of Virginia by early morning tomorrow then this low will begin to track north and deepen rapidly. By tomorrow morning the low will move north to Northern Delmarva, and tomorrow afternoon to New Jersey. By the end of the period the low will move to Long Island with the affect extending north to Southwest Maine. Loaded a blend of the GFS/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Used NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool add to winds 20% over land, 26% for the coastal waters. Used HPC Guidance for QPF. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Models have been actually very consistent with snfl and wind details for our Rgn with the next major low pres system advcg from the mid Atlc states. Enough fcstr confidence attm to convert prior wntr stm watches to wrngs and to issue wntr stm watches for all of Washington county and southeast Aroostook county. Storm total snfls for Nrn and NE Aroostook county thru 12z Fri, however, fall sig short of wntr stm wrng criteria even for the 24 hr window criteria, with downsloping from the Nrn NB prov highlands in a deep Erly flow alf xpctd to result in somewhat of a precip shadow N of Houlton to the Saint John vly, with decent snfl rates ovr this ptn of the FA only xpctd from mid Thu morn into erly aftn. There is still time to issue a wntr stm watch for this area by the Wed erly morn fcst update, but guidance has been consistent lately about lesser sn amts in the far N and NE, so at the least, a wntr wx adv will be issued prior to the beginning of the event. Otherwise, sig sn rates will slowly advc nwrd across Downeast ME Wed eve reaching Nrn areas by Thu morn. Mdt to hvy sn rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will reach Downeast areas by late wed ngt and the Cntrl highlands in the pre-dawn hrs. Heavier sn rates will exit Downeast areas by late morn, may linger in the Cntrl ME highlands, including the Baxter St. Park area thru much of the rest of Thu and perhaps even into erly Thu evening. Warmer sfc-bl temps due to entrained Atlc maritime air will likely result in mixed rn and sn or even a pd of all rn for coastal and Ern interior Downeast areas late Thu morn til Thu eve, somewhat reducing sn totals here, but enough banding should be present prior to the chg ovr to result in 7 or more inches, justifying current wrngs and watches in this area. Wntr stm wrngs will last longest in the Cntrl ME highlands where show the greatest total snfl amts...til 12z Fri...afterwhich, steady snfl will taper to more showery conditions and warmer temps will result in mixed rn/sn shwrs by Thu aftn xcpt high trrn lctns. Lastly, wind will be an issue later Wed ngt into Thu morn, spcly Downeast. Cannot a rule out a pd of near blizzard conditions in this area, but temps near fzg durg this ptn of the event may limit the amount of blowing and drifting, but something we will cont to monitor. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Low pressure will pivot northwest toward Nova Scotia from the western Atlantic Friday night and then become captured by the upper level low on Saturday. This will result in the potential for some snow across the area Friday night and Saturday. The low will then begin to move away from the region Saturday night as the surface/upper lows begin to slowly move east. This will result in any steadier snow tapering to snow showers Saturday night. Sunday and Monday will feature partly to mostly cloudy skies as the surface and upper lows continue to move east of Nova Scotia. Another low will approach on Tuesday with another chance for snow. temperatures through the period will remain above normal. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR to high end MVFR conditions this evening, generally ceilings will be 2800 to 3200FT across the area at the start of the period. Ceilings will begin to fall after sunset dropping to around 2500FT MVFR. Ceiling in FVE is expected to fall to around 2000FT. Ceiling will remain MVFR across the northern sites FVE, CAR, PQI and HUL tomorrow. BHB and BGR will fall to LMVFR with some light snow possible before the end of the period. SHORT TERM: IFR vsbys and then clgs will advc S to N across the TAF sites Wed ngt and cont thru Thu ngt, with LIFR to VLIFR attms with heavier sn spcly Downeast sites late wed ngt into Thu morn. Conditions improve to MVFR on Fri in sn and rn shwrs Fri and Fri eve, then may lower to IFR again late Fri ngt into Sat morn with another lesser round of snfl, improving again to MVFR all sites Sat aftn with sn shwrs contg across the Nrn TAF sites while improving to VFR late Sat ngt and Sun. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will build tomorrow afternoon however are not expected and are expected to reach Gale force early in the next period. SHORT TERM: Gale force winds are xpctd ovr our waters Wed ngt thru Thu morn ahead of the mid atlc states low as it apchs our waters from the SW. Winds will then subside to SCA Thu aftn with at least SCA conditions contg thru the weekend. .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Total tide levels continue to run about a foot or so above astronomical tide levels...but lower high tides than the last few days should limit or eliminate impacts. Minor splash over is possible with high tide cycles early Thu morn. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Wednesday to 10 PM EST Thursday for MEZ011-015-016-031. Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Friday for MEZ003>005-010. Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening for MEZ006-017-030-032. Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Wednesday to noon EST Thursday for MEZ029. MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 PM Wednesday to noon EST Thursday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Norton Short Term...VJN Long Term...TD Aviation...Norton/VJN Marine...Norton/VJN Tides/Coastal Flooding...VJN  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMPX 011047 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 447 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 324 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 Cloud cover and spotty light precipitation over the eastern portion of the area, in association with an inverted trough extending north from a surface low over Illinois, will move out of the area this morning. High pressure over the Plains will shift east across the area today, with mostly sunny skies and seasonably mild temperatures expected. Mostly clear skies are expected tonight, although some patchy fog will likely occur given high pressure overhead and some increased boundary layer moisture due to melting that will occur during the day today. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 324 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 The main issue in the longer term continues to be the system that will impact the area from late Sunday through Tuesday. In the big picture, we'll see the current fairly zonal flow across the continent amplify over the weekend as the upper trough currently off the west coast works east and ridging builds over the central US. Things will remain progressive through the week as the upper trough moves eastward and amplifies over the central and eastern US, bringing a return of cooler temperatures. With respect to the late Sunday-Tuesday system, there is still significant disagreement in the guidance with respect to the intensity and location of the upper wave and associated surface low. As would be expected, there is also no consensus on the forecast thermal profile across the area, which makes it tough to determine what form precipitation will take. Overall, it certainly looks as though things will start as rain over most of the area (perhaps initially some freezing rain over the northwest), with an eventual transition to snow as the column cools. However, it is still too soon to say when exactly this will occur and how much precipitation will fall as snow given the differences in the deterministic solutions and significant spread in the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble. Continued to employ a consensus approach, which is similar to the previous forecast, and ramps up PoPs late Sunday into Monday, with a transition from rain to snow Monday afternoon and evening. In the wake of that system, we will see colder temperatures work into the region as a surface high builds southeast from Canada Wednesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 445 AM CST Thu Mar 1 2018 Weather models have been too aggressive on the formation, and spread of dense fog across west central, and into southwest and south central Minnesota this morning. Based on the current satellite imagery, fog depth, which is fairly shallow, and weak wind speeds below a strong surface inversion, I don't expect much in the way of widespread dense fog. Some MVFR, or perhaps a brief (1 hr or less) IFR vsby this morning for KAXN/KRWF is the main concern through 18z. Otherwise, no other concerns with a light northwest wind under 10 kts. KMSP... No additional concerns with high confidence in VFR conditions. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Fri...VFR. Winds SE 5-10 kts, increasing overnight and gusty. Sat...VFR. Winds SE 15-20 kts Gusts 25-30 kts. Sun...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-RA. Winds SE 10-15 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...JLT  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KLWX 270802 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 302 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will cross the area today and tonight before moving offshore Wednesday. A warm front will lift into the area on Thursday. A strong low pressure system will develop east of the Mid-Atlantic coast on Friday. High pressure will build north of the area over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The latest surface analysis indicates high pressure is centered over West Virginia. Clear skies/calm winds suggest that radiational cooling should take place, and am leaving current early morning lows alone. The daytime hours should be equally benign, with little wind and sunny skies. Have inched highs up a degree or two. Since the scouring of cloud cover has occurred, guidance should have a better handle on temperatures, but admittedly am reluctant to forecast widespread 60+ highs as MAV suggesting. Forecast closer to a ECS/MET blend. Warm advection suggests that mid-high clouds will begin to overspread the region tonight. That should keep lows a bit warmer...mid 30s-around 40. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Isentropic lift will spread across the region Wednesday, resulting in thickening/lowering clouds. Moisture a little quicker to enter area vs previous runs; still, believe most of the day will be dry. Still have late day chance PoPs to the west...now forecast roughly west of a Charlottesville- Martinsburg line. The lead impulse of lift/rain will be east of the area by Wednesday evening. Will be awaiting shortwave energy in the upper midwest to induce cyclogenesis Thursday, which will pull a warm front north. Given juxtaposition of these features to the local area, am not really certain if there will be that much rain Wednesday night, but the plume of moisture associated with that front will be spreading north after midnight. Have tied PoP gradient to that feature, which will overspread forecast area (with 80% PoPs) during the day Thursday. Since most of Wednesday should be dry, feel comfortable keeping highs similar to today, since warm advection and effects of clouds should offset. Also raise highs Thursday by a couple, especially across central Virginia. Confidence a pinch lower here-- it will depend upon positioning of warm front. Lows both nights similar to dewpoints...in the lower 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As the low pressure system deepens offshore southern New England Friday, the pressure gradient between the low and broad high pressure building southeastward out of central Canada will tighten. This tightening will strengthen the northwest to northerly winds across the region Friday and Friday night. Winds could gust in excess of 35 mph and even stronger over the waters of the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac Friday and Friday night. Any leftover rain showers Friday will be light and mainly focused along the Mason- Dixon region and northeast Maryland. Some upslope snowfall is also possible in the Appalachian Mountains Friday and Friday night, resulting in a few inches along the ridge tops. An area of high pressure is expected to build across the region Saturday and persist through Monday. Expect diminishing winds, dry conditions, mostly sunny skies and cooler temperatures later on Saturday. Winds will veer around to a southeasterly direction by Monday to allow temperatures to modify. The next cold front will move across the eastern Ohio Valley into the mid-Atlantic region Monday night and Tuesday. There is a chance for rain showers ahead of and along this front. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR today with clear skies and light winds under high pressure. Even as the high moves offshore tonight, VFR will still prevail. Any clouds will be mid-high variety. Clouds will thicken/lower Wednesday, but should maintain VFR status. Rain may approach CHO-MRB late in the day. Rain will overspread terminals Wed night, with flight restrictions anticipated. IFR probable by Thursday. IFR conditions possible Friday for MTN and BWI, while other terminals encounter MVFR or VFR conditions. VFR conditions Friday night through Saturday night. Friday winds may gust up to 30 kt from the northwest, but diminish Saturday. && .MARINE... High pressure over the waters today. Winds will be light. Anticipate a southerly flow will pick up by afternoon, continuing tonight, with speeds 10 kt or less. Guidance split on how much winds will increase Wednesday. With 50+ degree air over mid 40s water, am siding on winds no higher than 15 kt. By Wednesday night, mixing will become even more poor as rain arrives...continuing into Thursday. As this low pulls offshore and strengthens Friday, northwest winds will increase. Gale Warnings will be possible. Potential Small Craft into Saturday as the low pulls away. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HTS NEAR TERM...HTS SHORT TERM...HTS LONG TERM...KLW AVIATION...HTS/KLW MARINE...HTS/KLW  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KOKX 152107 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 407 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front stalls to the north tonight, then pushes back south as a cold front late tonight and Friday morning. A second cold front races to our south Friday afternoon and evening, followed by high pressure building in Friday night. Quick moving low pressure passes south and east late Saturday and Saturday night. High pressure then returns Sunday into early Monday. A warm front moves through late Monday followed by a slowly approaching cold front through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Used a blend of previous forecast and higher res guidance to adjust model catch up to short term persistence / past performance. Most of higher res guidance has patchy and area of fog coming back quickly this evening, more so for CT and Eastern LI into this evening. This fog could become locally dense, for these areas which is something that will have to be watched early tonight before the rain sets in. Timing of rain looks to be just after 0z west, and closer to 3-4z towards NYC and east. It will be a quick slug of 700mb dynamics with a good chunk of the area seeing moderate rainfall from the 4z to 9z time period. Lift is briefly impressive and cannot totally rule out a rumble of thunder across NE New Jersey with LIs approaching 0 here, but not confident enough to officially mention. With a series of 700 hPa shortwaves crossing the area late tonight into early Friday morning triggering periods of light to moderate rainfall did not try to time multiple periods of moderate rain, although the rain will pulse a bit while getting on the edge of enhanced stratiform, slantwise convective activity. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The cold front will push through during Friday morning, with timing for now 14-16z for the city. Some lingering jet dynamics and with pulses of energy just south of the region through the early afternoon decided to trend down with rain probabilities through the morning, with complete shut off by early afternoon across Eastern LI. Clouds will persist through much of the day, but with airmass change and improved CAA behind a second cold front the more discernible clearing will wait until late in the day and into Friday evening. Turning noticeably colder after midnight into Saturday morning as temperatures return closer to normal for this time of the year. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A progressive flow across the continental United States prevails through this time frame, with amplification by early next week as east coast ridge builds. This ridge could very well bring record warmth to the area next week. Prior to that, a fast moving low is the focus. Looking at the passing low Saturday night, latest analysis of model runs shows a deeper low, further north per nam/wrf when compared to GFS, ECMWF and Canadian NH. Thus QPF is more robust. Assuming this is an outlier, which would result in lower qpf amounts, then attention turns to Ptype. Agree wholeheartedly with previous shift's analysis, much of it below. Trend has been north, and warmer with various guidance. So a hedge toward lower amounts right along the coast. The weaker GFS solution is likely due to its poor handling of cold air damming east of the Appalachians as high pressure quickly races to the east on Saturday. The location of the high is clearly not ideal for damming, nor for a moderate to heavy snow event. However, the fast development of the low along the Mid Atlantic coast late Saturday afternoon, which quickly passes to the southeast, may only result in a short period of weak onshore flow as the high moves off the New England coast. A SE flow along the coast is typically a snow to rain event, but in this case a rain/snow mix at the onset may go to all snow somewhat quickly as winds shift quickly to the NE. In addition, a deep- layered W-SW flow does not look to erode the cold air aloft, with the main question thus being the boundary layer temperature, through about 1-2 kft. With about quarter to half inch of liquid across the area (possibly up to 3/4 of an inch??), there is the potential for advisory level snows (2 to 4 inches) for much of the region. 3 to 6 north and west of I95, with less near the coast. Cannot rule out a low end warning event (around 6 inches). This depends on exact track, as a further south track places highest QPF along the coast. The best chance for this to occur would be along or just inland from the coast due to the higher QPF forecast, provided the event can be mainly in the form of snow. Temperatures are forecast to be in the 20s inland and in the lower 30s along the coast. So in summation, 1 to 3 inches near the coast, 2 to 4 inches as you head NW, with 3 to 6 across the interior. Highest amounts likely across interior srn CT, New England. Collab with WPC, and surrounding offices. Thereafter, a significant warmup ensues through the middle of next week with a deep-layered SW flow to develop as high pressure strengthens off the eastern seaboard. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday may get to around 60 across parts of NYC and the interior, but it will be considerably cooler along the coast due an onshore flow. A backdoor cold front passes late Wednesday or Wednesday night, with some cooling expected by Thursday, albeit still above normal. && .AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weak high pressure remains over the region today with a warm front approaching tonight. VFR for most terminals for the remainder of this afternoon except KBDR/KGON/KHPN where MVFR or IFR probably prevails. All terminals expected to lower to IFR as rain moves in 01-03z. S-SW winds around 10 mph, becoming more SW and lighter this evening. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: CHC MVFR prevails before 02z. KLGA TAF Comments: CHC MVFR prevails before 02z. KEWR TAF Comments: CHC MVFR prevails before 01z. KTEB TAF Comments: CHC MVFR prevails before 01z. KHPN TAF Comments: CHC vsbys prevail at VFR before sundown. KISP TAF Comments: CHC MVFR prevails before 03z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Friday PM...VFR. NW winds G25KT. .Saturday...VFR. .Saturday Night...IFR with snow inland/rain-snow mix coast. .Sunday...CHC sub-VFR early, otherwise VFR with chc W wind G20KT. .Monday...Initially VFR conditions, lowering to MVFR or lower late with rain. .Tuesday...CHC sub-VFR/shra AM, otherwise VFR with SW wind G20-25KT. && .MARINE... Expect seas to remain just below 5 ft this evening, then increase in response to a persistent SE-S swell. Initially sub- Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions are expected on all coastal waters, followed by climbing seas and SCA criteria being met on ocean waters with a tightening pressure gradient. Winds increase to up to 15 kt, to occasionally 20 kt late and help to build seas on the coastal ocean waters to SCA levels. SCA level seas should persist into at least Friday evening, with SCA wind gust over the coastal ocean waters most likely Friday afternoon/evening. On the non-ocean waters, there is a chance for gusts to SCA levels from Friday afternoon into Friday night, but confidence in this is not as high as for SCA conditions for the coastal non-ocean waters at this time. Therefore the Small Craft Advisory remains up only for the coastal ocean waters from midnight tonight through midnight Friday night. If confidence increases, there is a potential for an SCA to be issued for parts of the non- ocean zones for Friday afternoon/ Friday night as well. NW gusts 25 to 30kt are likely to continue through the first half of Friday night behind the cold front, then subside late Friday night. Tranquil winds shift around to the east/SE Saturday as high pressure passes to the north. The winds back around to the NE/N as low pressure passes to the south Saturday night. Low prob for SCA gusts over the ocean this time frame depending on strength of the low and track. High pressure builds quickly Sunday, then passes to the south Sunday night. Winds back around to the south as a warm front passes and the high moves east. The strengthening southerly winds Tuesday should allow seas to build to 3 to 5 ft on the ocean waters. && .HYDROLOGY... Around a 1/2 inch of rain is expected from tonight into Friday morning. No hydrologic impact is expected. It should be mainly dry Friday night and Saturday. Liquid equivalent precipitation Saturday night into early Sunday is expected to range from 1/4 northwest to around 1/2 inch through coastal Connecticut and across Long Island. However, no hydrologic impacts are anticipated this weekend into early next week. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EST Friday night for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JE/PW NEAR TERM...JE SHORT TERM...JE LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...JC MARINE...JE/PW HYDROLOGY...JE/PW EQUIPMENT...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KHUN 122207 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 407 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018 .NEAR TERM...(Tonight) Issued at 340 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018 Just did a quick forecast update to address the rain showers moving through far southern portions of the area. An elevated front around 925 mb is moving northward into the area and along with sufficient moisture is producing a small area of showers in far southern portions of the HUN CWFA. The showers will largely be relegated to Cullman, Marshall and DeKalb Counties, but POPs were raised a little in adjacent areas to address uncertainty with regards to the extent of the shower activity. The showers will move across the area mainly during the late afternoon and evening. Rainfall amounts will mostly be under one tenth of an inch. Otherwise, extensive cloudiness is expected to linger tonight, especially for about the southeastern half of the area, while some breaks in cloud cover may appear in the west. Winds and clouds may be sufficient to prevent fog from developing in most locations, but will need to be watched late tonight as winds lighten and if some breaks in the cloud canopy appear in the west. Additionally, we will be watching and updating river forecast flood products as necessary. The only TN River tributaries that remain in flood at this hour are the Big Nance Creek and the Paint Rock River, both of which are falling. It looks as though the Big Nance may fall below flood stage here in the next few hours. An updated FLS for that river may be coming out soon. .SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 158 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018 At the beginning of the short term, a surface high will be moving into the northeast US and models are all consistent in developing some cold air damming along the eastern side of the Appalachians. This should result in a wedge front sneaking into NE AL early Tuesday. Localized convergence along this feature could result in light rain developing over the higher terrain and have kept low end PoPs in the forecast out east. About the same time this is occurring an upper level ridge begins to build over the central Gulf of Mexico. Winds shift to the E/SE Tuesday and warmer air returns to the TN Valley. Despite the cloud cover guidance have highs Tuesday in the lower 60s for the western half of the area. The wedge front keeps temps in NE AL and in TN in the 50s. A disturbance moving N/NE out of the SE TX/LA area Tuesday night into Wednesday will accompany an influx of 50 to 60 degree dewpoints. This system is forecast to move over the TN Valley Wednesday, providing another round of moderate to heavy rainfall. The GFS/ECMWF differ in where the heaviest rainfall tracks and have gone with a blend of guidance for QPF values. In either case, rainfall totals won't be as high as what we saw this weekend. So, even with the max rainfall of 0.75 inches, do not believe those values would result in any additional flooding concerns. Lows Wednesday night into Thursday won't fall very far from the highs Wednesday afternoon with values dropping to around 60 degrees. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 158 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018 A rather unseasonably warm and moist weather pattern will continue in the day 4-7 period. The subtropical anti-cyclone will be in place aloft over the Gulf of Mexico keeping the TN valley in the midst of brisk westerlies aloft. The center of the ridge shifts east through day 6-7 through the FL peninsula and Bahamas, while the surface-850mb highs become positioned off the east coast. A shallow cold front will be able to push southeast on Friday producing widespread showers and a few thunderstorms. Some of these could be post-frontal through Friday evening. At this time, near surface temperatures look to remain above freezing through Saturday morning for our area, so precipitation should not freeze. The GFS brings a more amplified shortwave east through the OH/TN valleys on Saturday, while the ECMWF is not nearly as amplified. Will keep the suggested low blended PoP in for Saturday. The blended highs on Saturday around 50 degrees may in fact be too warm, but will assess this trend in coming model runs. As the aforementioned ridges shifts east, a rather quick transition back to south-southwest flow in low levels will commence by day 7. This will bring a substantial wing of theta-e advection with PWs jumping rapidly well above one inch again. Cannot rule out elevated instability and thunderstorms, but will just go with showers for now on Sunday until this becomes a bit more certain. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1124 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018 The low stratus deck between 1,000-2,000 feet is expected to remain over the area through the TAF period. Just to the NW in western TN drier air has allowed for some clearing and we could see this clearing line make it the MSL terminal but confidence is low. Winds remain out of the N/NE with speeds of 9 to 12kts currently but should taper off this afternoon and finally become light and variable overnight. Cigs could briefly drop to IFR overnight but have left out of the current package due to low confidence. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...KDW SHORT TERM...Stumpf LONG TERM...17 AVIATION...Stumpf For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDMX 101012 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 412 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 .SHORT TERM.../Today through Tomorrow/ Issued at 340 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 Bottom Line Up Front... Southern Iowa focus for two snow systems... one ongoing, and the second one expected to cruise through tonight. Cannot rule out need for another Winter Wx Advisory tonight...would likely be in southern two tiers of our Iowa counties. Ongoing System Through Today... A deep low near the Hudson Bay, with slight enhancement from a huge blocking high riding off the British Columbia coastline through southern Alaska, has helped place most of the CONUS under the influence of a longwave trough. Within this trough, a narrow PV anomaly has been pushing west to east through Iowa overnight. Well-phased with this anomaly has been a band of 750-600mb frontogenetical forcing, which cuts right through the DGZ. This has helped produce some decent dendrites and snowfall rates approaching 1 inch/hr over southern Iowa. Most of this forcing should be east of the DMX CWA by Sat 12z-15z and saturation profile will begin to break up... suggesting junky stratocu in southern Iowa. Filtered sunshine likely today across the rest of the CWA. With overall airmass/850mb temps today similar to where they were yesterday, expecting similar temperatures. Ever-so- slowly-approaching sfc high, winds should fall to 10 mph or less this afternoon. Tonight's system... Another banded PV anomaly will swing through southern Iowa tonight. Comparing the system tonight with the past one from this morning, forcing is slightly weaker with tonight's system, and saturation/cloud thicknesses are slightly less with tonight's system as well. Thus QPF is less for tonight. The NAM is a far northern outlier once again and its solution has been discounted. The IA/MO will be the best focus for precip. As mentioned above, Winter WX Adv. cannot be ruled out in southern two tiers of Iowa counties as snowfall amounts look to near 3 inches. By 12z Sun, forcing should be east of our area. .LONG TERM.../Sunday Night through Friday/ Issued at 340 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018 After a very active past several days, the long term looks much more quiet. Next precip chances come Tuesday morning into the afternoon as yet another PV anomaly swings through Iowa. GFS has been much more optimistic with this solution than the ECMWF and now the NAM... so confidence is not high. However, the GFS solution has a decent slug of 850mb moisture convergence phased with a pocket of ascent through the DGZ. Over the past several runs, the GFS has focused on this potential precip being over our NW CWA at 12z Tue and pushing eastward throughout the day. Could be minor accumulations if it pans out. Otherwise, Wednesday may bring a brief respite to the longwave trough rut keeping Iowa cool as an area of high pressure slips through the Great Lakes Region and into the Ohio Valley Region by Wednesday afternoon. Models still zoning in on how far northward to push warmer air, but 40s are very possible in Iowa. Beyond Wednesday, long-range models have been hinting at some sort of a system for next weekend. However, confidence extremely low at this time as run-to-run consistency very poor. && .AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night/ Issued at 1141 PM CST Fri Feb 9 2018 Area of snow will impact mainly KDSM/KOTM over the next several hours with IFR/LIFR conditions at times in vsbys and cigs. Conditions in these areas will improve Saturday morning and become widespread VFR. Another system will impact southern Iowa by Saturday evening bringing lowering cigs and another round of snow. Mainly VFR conditions through the period at the other sites. Northerly winds will continue. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for IAZ059>062-071>075-081>086-092>097. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kotenberg LONG TERM...Kotenberg AVIATION...Donavon  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 291147 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 247 AM AKST Mon Jan 29 2018 .DISCUSSION... Models...29/00Z solutions are in good agreement into the mid term, and with a fairly stable pattern expect that will continue. 29/00Z surface solutions initialized well against the 29/06Z surface analysis with major feature locations very similar, and central pressures within a couple mb. Not much precipitation in the forecast area, but what we have is showing up in all the solutions to some extent. Will use the SREF for precipitation as it provides the higher probabilities. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Omega blocking pattern will be transitioning through the week to a Rex block as the 565 dam ridge to the west moves to Wrangel Island and rolls over with the axis moving from over the Dateline to over the Arctic Coast by Wednesday afternoon, while a 516 dam low over the Yukon Territory moves over Cook Inlet by Tuesday afternoon, then 200 nm south of Kodiak City by Wednesday afternoon, then moves southwest to 200 nm south of Nikolski by Thursday morning with troughing extending east over the southern Yukon Territory. The high will persist over Wrangel Island through the weekend as the ridge axis rotates to the southeast and will lie from Wrangel Island to the Upper Yukon River Valley by Sunday morning. A weak Col will lie over the Alaska Range. At 850 hpa...Temperatures fairly steady through Tuesday then cooling about 5C from the east midweek into the weekend before starting to warm. Surface...A 968 mb low lies well south of the Gulf of Alaska and is moving northeast and will move over Ketchikan and into British Columbia Tuesday and dissipate. A 1015 mb low over the Central Arctic will move southeast into MacKenzie Bay tonight at 1020 mb, and continue south into the Yukon Territory and dissipate Tuesday. A broad area of high pressure with a 1037 mb center sits over the Northeast Bering Sea, and will persist in the area into Tuesday, then move over Chukotka Tuesday evening. A 100 mb low will develop near Kodiak City Tuesday morning and drift south through Wednesday and dissipate. A 1038 mb high will develop over the Western Arctic Tuesday and move over the Arctic Plains by Tuesday evening at 1046 mb. The high over Chukotka will move over Wrangel Island by Thursday morning at 1044 mb. A 1026 mb low will develop over the Dateline Wednesday and move southeast across the Arctic to the Eastern Arctic Coast by Thursday morning at 1025 mb as the high over the Arctic Plains moves southeast over the Upper Yukon Flats and Valley by Wednesday morning with a 1048 mb center over the Yukon Territory. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...This will be the most active area the next few days as a couple lows moves southeast over the coast into the Yukon Territory. SPoRT LEO Nighttime Microphysics RGB at 29/0813Z indicates a large area of stratus associated with the low that is moving across the area today. Will continue the Winter Weather Advisories for zones 204 and 206, but conditions remain marginal. Cloudy conditions will prevail today and tonight with light snow over the eastern areas today and tonight, and some light snow moving over the western areas on Tuesday. Winds 10 to 20 mph and generally from the north and northeast. Temperatures will cool slightly the next day or so. West Coast and Western Interior...Generally quiet out west with the high west of St Lawrence Island moving north. North flow will continue to spin some clouds south over the area, generally high clouds, but there is some lower stratus that can be seen on the SPoRT LEO Nighttime Microphysics RGB at 29/0956Z, and is confirmed by the GOES IFR Probability product at 29/0930Z. Expect some flurries over the northern Seward Peninsula today and this evening with the low stratus, otherwise mostly clear conditions will prevail. Temperatures steady. Winds along the coast 5 to 15 mph, with light winds inland. Central and Eastern Interior...Some industrial flurries around the power plants in town this morning, with some light accumulations below the plumes, otherwise mostly clear for most of the area. There continues to be some stratus over the Fortymile Country south of Eagle, and the Upper Tanana Valley. Expect some flurries or light snow with that stratus and light accumulations of less than one half inch. Winds across the area will continue to be light with the exception of some stronger north winds in the Alaska Range gaps to 30 mph. Temperatures steady the next day or so, then slightly cooler the remainder of the week. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for Days 4 to 7...Generally quiet pattern as the ridge continues to roll over with no significant precipitation until trough moves north over the Alaska Range late Sunday and Monday. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ204-AKZ206. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JAN 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KJAX 272011 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 311 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2018 ...Widespread Rainfall Event expected Sunday and Sunday Night... .NEAR TERM /Through Sunday/... Rest of this afternoon...SE Flow off the Atlantic and daytime heating has triggered some light showers/sprinkles across coastal SE GA and coastal NE FL that have moved further inland than previously thought. Overall not much measurable precipitation but radar imagery showing widely scattered sprinkles for JAX metro area northward into SE GA for the remainder of the afternoon. E/SE flow has also increased to 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25 mph at times with widespread temps into the lower 70s inland NE FL and 60s along the coast and across SE GA. Tonight...Any remaining isolated diurnal showers should fade over inland areas and generally remain along the coast and coastal waters. The low level SE Flow is expected to weaken enough to less than 5 mph and this should be enough along with nocturnal cooling to allow for low level stratus development across all of SE GA and most of NE FL from the I-10 corridor northward. Dewpoints will continue to increase into the upper 50s/near 60 and will support some patchy sea fog formation from JAX northward through SSI as it overruns coastal water temps in the lower/middle 50s. Not a great set-up for widespread dense fog but latest HRRR/SREF model runs are suggesting at least some fog formation along the coast from JAX northward and over inland areas from I-10 northward through SE GA and have upped wording in the forecast to "Areas of Fog" late tonight/early Sunday. Otherwise expect mild night with lows only falling into the mid/upper 50s. Rainfall ahead of approaching weather system should hold off for the most part to the west of the region before sunrise with a slight increase in rainfall chances across inland SE GA towards morning. Sunday...Forecast still on track for widespread rainfall to develop through the day from West to East across the region as strong mid level shortwave pushes through the NE GOMEX along with a developing low pressure center that will be close to the Big Bend region/I-75 corridor of NE FL by late in the day. Overall expect showers to increase in coverage from inland SE GA during the morning hours and push across the rest of SE GA/NE FL by the afternoon. Enough surface heating and warm air advection into NE FL will push temps into the lower/middle 70s and expect at least isolated storms with locally heavy rainfall possible across NE FL mainly south of the I-10 corridor, a few strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph not out of the question along with locally heavy rainfall. Earlier onset to precip across SE GA will hold max temps in the 60s there. .SHORT TERM /Sunday night through Tuesday night/... A low pressure system will lift out of the Gulf of Mexico and move across northeast Florida Sunday night. Very impressive upward forcing with this system, given strong surface convergence along the track of the surface low, coupled with very strong energy and diffluence aloft. The strongest forcing appears to move in early Sunday evening. Models soundings show deep saturated profiles in our area, thus rainfall will become heavy at times. Embedded thunderstorms (mostly elevated) are expected across northeast Florida where the NAM shows MUCAPE values around 500 J/KG with effective shear values of 40 to 50 knots. Strong gusty winds will be possible in the strongest storms, but the main concern will be the potential for flooding in heavy rainfall. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected with the highest amounts over northeast Florida. The NAM12 actually shows a pocket of 3 to 5 inches of total rainfall across portions of northeast Florida, and this does not seem that unrealistic. That amount of rainfall this time of year would more than likely lead to flooding, especially if it falls across urban areas. If tonight's model runs still show this potential, we may need to hoist a Flood Watch for northeast Florida. Rain will linger into Monday before wrapping up for good by the afternoon hours as much drier air invades from the northwest. The cooler air doesn't really start to move in until later in the day, thus resulting in temperatures a little above normal on Monday. Cold air advection Monday night will result in a 24 hour temperature change of about 20 degrees. No freeze or frost concerns expected Monday night. Tuesday will feature sunny but chilly conditions, and gusty north winds will make it feel even colder. Strong high pressure northwest of the area will shift to the Carolinas Tuesday night and this will set the stage for inland freezes across much of our forecast area on Wednesday morning. .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... Below normal temps will continue in to Wednesday before quickly moderating on Thursday and Friday as high pressure moves east out into the Atlantic with winds veering towards the south ahead of the next cold front. This front is expected to push through with increasing chances for rain in the Friday night/Saturday timeframe. The timing on this though could change. && .AVIATION... For now this afternoon has still featured VFR conds at all TAF sites despite some isolated light showers/sprinkles at times. Expect better chances of MVFR CIGS after 00z and possible IFR CIGS/VSBYS after 06-09z time frame as onshore winds weaken and allow for lower stratus deck to develop along with some patchy sea fog that may move inland close to SSI at times. Latest SREF model has pushed IFR probs to 50% or higher from JAX metro TAFs northward through SSI and have trended latest 18z TAF package slightly more pessimistic with most impacts from the 06-15z time frame. && .MARINE... Small craft advisories will continue over the offshore waters in the SE flow with elevated seas through the weekend and will likely continue early next week as strong North Flow develops on the back side of departing low pressure system. The nearshore waters will continue at least SCEC levels of winds/seas in the SE Flow this weekend and will be close to SCA levels at times including the North winds developing on Monday behind the low pressure system. Rip Currents: Moderate Risk continues in the onshore flow. && .HYDROLOGY... Widespread 1-3 inch rainfall totals through Monday with locally higher amounts will bring rises to local river basins across the region but River Flooding not expected at this time but will be possible if locally heavier bands develop across any of the NE FL basins which are still running slightly above normal levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 55 67 56 65 / 20 100 80 10 SSI 54 64 57 64 / 30 100 90 20 JAX 56 73 60 66 / 20 100 100 30 SGJ 58 72 60 66 / 20 90 100 40 GNV 57 74 61 68 / 10 90 100 20 OCF 58 77 62 69 / 10 90 100 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM. && $$ Hess/Shuler/  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 271155 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 655 AM EST Sat Jan 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move off to the east. A cold front will slide through the area tonight and early Sunday. It will turn colder behind the front to start next week. Light snow is possible Monday and Monday night. A more significant storm is possible late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Clouds not making much progress at this point, but will hold the line on increase in clouds. Have adjusted the timing up just an hour or so in the central cos with help from the HRRR and RAP. Otherwise, all is as expected earlier. Prev... First of the high clouds now into the far NW, but all radar returns appear to be aloft until one looks west to wrn OH. Even that precip is very spotty. The dry air at the surface is going to take a while to moisten up. But, some drops should hit the ground over the far NW around noon. The showery precip gets a little more organized/continuous as the evening nears. Despite the minimal QPF, high POPs will be painted in reflection of the expectation of some measure of rain. Maxes will be interesting for the NW where it may start to warm up for a short time, but 8H temps drop before noon, a sign of evaporative cooling. The rain will then keep a lid on the temps for the NW half of the area in the afternoon. A little worried that the maxes currently progged to get into the 50s across the south will not be realized due to clouds spreading across the area, but some southerly wind should make it happen. The eastern valleys may also have trouble getting very warm with little mixing until later in the day after the clouds begin to thicken there. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... A SW-NE-oriented stripe of rain should slide gradually to the southeast through the night. While a very brief mix or turn to snow may occur as the precip ends across the hills of the north, no accums should occur. Wind becomes NWrly and cold advection should knock about half of the CWA below freezing by morning. Sunday looks like a great day with nearly full sun over much of the area. Wind kinda light. A little --RA may linger over the far SE in the AM, then they get pt sunny with lots of high clouds. Will knock off a deg or two from maxes there with 8H temps only 0C. They would have to fully mix that high to get to 50F, and that may not happen in late January after a rain and the clouds lingering along the srn border for much of the day. High pressure moving in from the NW will be interrupted by a very potent short wave trough rolling over the lower lakes and srn ONT Sunday night. So, we may see some cloud cover and perhaps a flurry in the north, but it should remain dry. The main forecast trouble in the whole short-term is how much snow may occur on Monday/night as a much more significant trough digs to our west and slides overhead on Monday night. GEFS and SREF plumes are showing only about half the members of each forecast system generating precip/snow. Likely POPs for the north look OK, but the lack of moisture is troubling. The trough does kick up a low off shore. But, the flow over the region is generally from the N/NW, and that would bring only moisture from the Great Lakes. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Not much would be left to fall on Tuesday off any light snow from the upper level trough passage. The dry air associated with the surge of cold air arriving on Tuesday should make it feel pretty cold and blustery. The wind chills won't be as terrible as two weeks ago, though. The thermal trough remains over us for only a day or so, and another climb up the rollercoaster hill ensues for the second part of the week. The next system arrives heading into Groundhog Day and should bring the risk for mixed precipitation. There is still uncertainty in the details but there is above average confidence concerning precip potential late next week given pretty good model agreement this far in advance. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions with increasing clouds early today will trend lower from west to east into tonight, as a cold front and associated band of rain moves through the airspace. IFR restrictions are most likely at KBFD/KJST given upslope with MVFR probable elsewhere. Rain should end from northwest to southeast after midnight and into early Sunday morning. Residual low level moisture/ceilings may linger over the western 1/3 of the airspace but the trend overall should be toward improving conditions MVFR to VFR by later Sunday. LLWS at KBFD/KJST through late this morning given strong pre-frontal low level jet. Outlook... Mon...Light snow/IFR visibility possible. Tue...AM snow showers/vis reductions possible. Wind gusts 20-25kts from ~300 degrees. Wed...AM low cigs becoming VFR. && .HYDROLOGY... Hydro concerns continue on Susquehanna River below Marietta where ice is jammed and water levels are slowly backing up above the Turkey Hill constriction. A flood advisory was issued for the area as there is a jam in progress that is causing minor flooding. The flood watch will continue until early Sunday evening. Water levels are generally falling on the river and hopefully the ice jam threat will finally diminish this weekend. The rain we expected today/tonight should make nary a dent (bump) in the stream flows. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Sunday evening for PAZ065-066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl AVIATION...Steinbugl HYDROLOGY...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 270941 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 441 AM EST Sat Jan 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will slide off the east coast ahead of a cold front that will slide through the area tonight and early Sunday. It will turn colder behind the front to start next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... First of the high clouds now into the far NW, but all radar returns appear to be aloft until one looks west to wrn OH. Even that precip is very spotty. The dry air at the surface is going to take a while to moisten up. But, some drops should hit the ground over the far NW around noon. The showery precip gets a little more organized/continuous as the evening nears. Despite the minimal QPF, high POPs will be painted in reflection of the expectation of some measure of rain. Maxes will be interesting for the NW where it may start to warm up for a short time, but 8H temps drop before noon, a sign of evaporative cooling. The rain will then keep a lid on the temps for the NW half of the area in the afternoon. A little worried that the maxes currently progged to get into the 50s across the south will not be realized due to clouds spreading across the area, but some southerly wind should make it happen. The eastern valleys may also have trouble getting very warm with little mixing until later in the day after the clouds begin to thicken there. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/... A SW-NE-oriented stripe of rain should slide gradually to the southeast through the night. While a very brief mix or turn to snow may occur as the precip ends across the hills of the north, no accums should occur. Wind becomes NWrly and cold advection should knock about half of the CWA below freezing by morning. Sunday looks like a great day with nearly full sun over much of the area. Wind kinda light. A little --RA may linger over the far SE in the AM, then they get pt sunny with lots of high clouds. Will knock off a deg or two from maxes there with 8H temps only 0C. They would have to fully mix that high to get to 50F, and that may not happen in late January after a rain and the clouds lingering along the srn border for much of the day. High pressure moving in from the NW will be interrupted by a very potent short wave trough rolling over the lower lakes and srn ONT Sunday night. So, we may see some cloud cover and perhaps a flurry in the north, but it should remain dry. The main forecast trouble in the whole short-term is how much snow may occur on Monday/night as a much more significant trough digs to our west and slides overhead on Monday night. GEFS and SREF plumes are showing only about half the members of each forecast system generating precip/snow. Likely POPs for the north look OK, but the lack of moisture is troubling. The trough does kick up a low off shore. But, the flow over the region is generally from the N/NW, and that would bring only moisture from the Great Lakes. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Not much would be left to fall on Tuesday off any light snow from the upper level trough passage. The dry air associated with the surge of cold air arriving on Tuesday should make it feel pretty cold and blustery. The wind chills won't be as terrible as two weeks ago, though. The thermal trough remains over us for only a day or so, and another climb up the rollercoaster hill ensues for the second part of the week. The next system arrives heading into Groundhog Day and should bring the risk for mixed precipitation. There is still uncertainty in the details but there is above average confidence concerning precip potential late next week given pretty good model agreement this far in advance. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions early today will trend lower from west to east into tonight, as cold front and associated band of rain moves across the airspace. IFR restrictions are most likely at KBFD/KJST given upslope with MVFR probable elsewhere. Rain should end from northwest to southeast after midnight and into early Sunday morning. Some residual low ceilings may linger over the western 1/3 of the airspace but trend overall should be toward improving conditions by later Sunday. Added LLWS at KBFD/KJST through late this morning given strong pre-frontal low level jet. Outlook... Mon...PM light snow/IFR visibility reductions possible. Tue...AM snow showers/vis reductions possible. Wind gusts 20-25kts from ~300 degrees. Wed...AM low cigs becoming VFR. && .HYDROLOGY... Hydro concerns continue on Susquehanna River below Marietta where ice is jammed and water levels are slowly backing up above the Turkey Hill constriction. A flood advisory was issued for the area as there is a jam in progress that is causing minor flooding. The flood watch will continue until early Sunday evening. Water levels are generally falling on the river and hopefully the ice jam threat will finally diminish this weekend. The rain we expected today/tonight should make nary a dent (bump) in the stream flows. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Sunday evening for PAZ065-066. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl AVIATION...Steinbugl HYDROLOGY...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDMX 211041 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 441 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018 .SHORT TERM.../Today/ Issued at 441 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018 A well-advertised area of low pressure is coming off the Oklahoma panhandle and is beginning to churn towards Iowa. In advance of this area of low pressure, a well-defined boundary has been pushing northward through Iowa. The 290K surface picks up on this boundary well, with a decent slug of isentropic lift accompanying it. At 09z Sun, the boundary was near I-80. Temperatures along and south of the boundary were in the upper 30s to low 40s. North of this boundary, skies cleared for a brief period early this morning, allowing temperatures to fall to the mid to upper 20s. Hi-res models have been a little over-aggressive with low ceilings this morning, calling for CIGs near 500 ft, where in reality, they have struggle to reach much below 2500 ft. This lack of shallow moisture has kept vsbys from plummeting as much as advertised behind the boundary. for the rest of today, expect forcing to persist behind the boundary, aided by weak, but sufficient sfc convergence. Fcst soundings have cloud thicknesses under 5000ft. In all, this supports widespread drizzle across Iowa as this boundary slowly pushes northward. Across northern Iowa, primarily along and north of Highway 30, freezing drizzle is possible. With any ice accums expected to be little to none, icing should be a very minimal impact today. Visibility may be reduced to the 1 to 3 mile range throughout today. .LONG TERM.../Tonight through Saturday/ Issued at 441 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018 Surface low pressure will be lifting north into eastern Kansas by this evening then will continue to lift slowly northeast into Iowa by Monday morning. Areas of drizzle and some fog will be ongoing across much of central Iowa to start the period and temperatures should be at or above freezing for most locations except for the far northwest through the night. A region of convection should lift into central and southeast Iowa this evening as the short wave approaches from the southwest and the low level jet and steeping mid level lapse rates help generate MUCAPEs to near 500 J/kg. This convection likely will produce graupel and/or small hail as it quickly moves through. The precipitation will transition to snow over the northwest once the residual mid level dry air erodes and the deformation band begins to form. Convective elements withing the deformation band look possible as the steepening lapse rates to near moist adiabatic, modest MUCAPES and good negative EPV are all present. This could produce very heavy snow fall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour for a period. Model proximity soundings show a nearly isothermal layer between 0C and -2C from near the surface to around 725 mb. This profiles setup suggests the initial snowfall could be very wet and heavy and would be very sticky. Past events with similar profiles have had instances with power outages with snowfall of 3 inches or more with these properties due to tree damage. Should this wet and heavy snow occur, the increasing winds would increase the potential for tree damage and subsequent power outages would be possible. Snow ratios will increase through the day over the northwest as colder air begins to move into the area leading to a fluffier snowfall. Only minor adjustments to the forecast snowfall with a band of 6 to 12 inches still possible with the heaviest amounts confined to Emmet county and adjacent areas to the west and north. Still expect subtle adjustments to the exact track of the snow band but even a 20 nm shift would have big impacts especially along the southern edge of the snowfall. In addition, strong and gusty northwest winds will develop as the surface low pressure begins to move into eastern Iowa and northern Illinois causing the pressure gradient to increase and the cold advection and good mixing arrive. Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are likely. Considering the forecast snowfall amounts and these winds, will be upgrading portions of the northwest to a Blizzard Warning with the primary blizzard impacts during the day on Monday and into the evening. A winter storm warning has been issued for a few counties just south of the blizzard headlines. This area had 4 inches or more of snowfall forecast in the northwest corners of these counties along with the strong winds to produce blowing snow. Warm air will encompass much of the remainder of the forecast area. A deformation snow band will move east across the forecast area by late Monday and into the evening. Any snowfall amounts would generally be one inch or less but could have some travel impacts. Little change to the remainder of the forecast as the cold advection will not last long with a transition back to ridging and later southwest flow by Thursday into Friday. The next precipitation chances will be Friday night into early Saturday. && .AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night/ Issued at 1134 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018 Brief clearing/lifting of cigs is allowing br to form and this will bring MVFR vsbys to TAF's. Moisture will deepen and low cigs will develop overnight. If we can get drizzle to develop across northern TAF locations aft 09Z FZDZ would be possible for a few hours this A.M. but confidence in this is not high enough to include in TAF's. After 15Z DZ will begin to develop further reducing cigs/vsbys to IFR with rain developing late in the period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Blizzard Warning from midnight tonight to midnight CST Monday night for IAZ006-023-033. Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to midnight CST Monday night for IAZ007-016-024-034. Blizzard Warning from 9 PM this evening to midnight CST Monday night for IAZ004-005-015. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kotenberg LONG TERM...Donavon AVIATION...FAB  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KSTO 130653 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 955 PM PST Fri Jan 12 2018 .Synopsis... Dry through the weekend with above normal temperatures. Night and morning valley fog likely each day. Next chance of precipitation Monday night through much of next week. Some snow at pass levels. && .Discussion... Update: Stratus/Dense fog banked up over the Mother Lode this afternoon, and with weakening Nly gradients and Nly winds, the stratus/fog has advected NWwd. The HRRR surface VSBY prog depicts the low VSBYS will spread up the Valley to almost RBL by mid morning. Nly and Ely gradients will be sufficient to allow katabatic winds to keep fog out of the Nrn Sac Vly and limited to lower Sierra Foothill elevations. Fog depth forecast by NAM Bufkit to be about 2 kft deep compared to 1 kft at SAC. PIREPS early Sat morning may verify this depth, and if so, would suggest the fog/stratus would persist well into the afternoon and even early Sat evening where it is deeper, i.e. the Nrn SJV. Regardless, the fog/stratus should be rather stubborn to erode or mix out due to light winds and strong subsidence due to the building ridge over the area. The deep stratus and strong subsidence may also be susceptible for some areas of drizzle. JHM Left over fog and stratus slow to burn off this afternoon, but skies should clear by sunset. This will set the stage for fog formation again tonight, but not as widespread or dense as last night due to light north wind. Best fog chances will be southern Sac/northern San Joaquin valleys. Upper level ridge will continue over NorCal over the weekend providing dry, mild weather with intervals of high clouds. Fog will be possible each morning, particularly widespread during the clearer nights and mornings. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal for valleys generally in the upper 50's and low 60's. Pacific storm system approaching the coast will spread showers over the coastal range and Shasta county Monday afternoon. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday) Precipitation continues across the area Tuesday, peaking in intensity in the early morning, then decreasing through the day as the system exits. Some light mainly mountain showers linger through the evening into overnight. Total precipitation amounts expected range from around a quarter inch over the northern San Joaquin Valley to around an inch over the mountains of Shasta County. Snow levels on Tuesday should be around 6500-7000 feet. Snow accumulation should be light, around 1 to 3 inches. Wednesday should be mainly dry except for some light mountain rain and snow. Another system is expected Thursday into Friday. Confidence is improving that this will bring enough snow accumulation to cause some travel problems in the mountains, though snow totals remain uncertain. This looks to be a colder system, but not very wet. Some light accumulation could extend down as low as 3000-4000 feet. EK && .AVIATION... VFR conditions this evening, with MVFR/IFR conditions in the Central Valley from fog/BR and stratus returning tonight and continuing into Saturday morning. Light northerly winds continue prevail across TAF sites, and may limit dense fog development too some degree. EK && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory for the Southern and Central Sacramento Valley, Northern San Joaquin Valley, the Mother Lode, the Delta and Solano County until noon PST Saturday. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KAKQ 102109 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 409 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure slowly slides farther offshore tonight. A complex area of low pressure approaches from the southwest Thursday and pushes across the Mid-Atlantic Thursday night through Friday night, with the upper level trough lingering over the area Saturday. High pressure builds in from the northwest Saturday night with a return to colder temperatures by Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Current wv imagery and model analysis depict a broad upper ridge over the Southeast Conus downstream of a trough over the srn Rockies and another trough over the nrn Rockies. At the surface, high pressure is centered off the New England coast, and extends to the SW over the Piedmont. Visible satellite imagery and surface obs show mid-level cloud cover from the Piedmont to the Ern Shore (associated with mid-level WAA), with sct cirrus across far SE VA and NE NC. Temperatures are mainly in the mid/upper 40s under cloud cover and in the low to mid 50s under a partly to mostly sunny sky. One interesting observation as of 20z was 39F at ORF with a N wind off the cold water of the Bay. The high will gradually slide offshore tonight as the complex trough to the W pushes into the plains states. Cloud cover is expected to scatter this evening, with the potential for stratus developing over the Piedmont late as the low-level flow becomes more southeasterly as the high moves offshore. There remains a potential for patchy fog across the E under less cloud cover. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid/upper 30s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... The low-level flow remains southeasterly during the day Thursday as low-level WAA strengthens with a warm front pushing into the area. Stratus is expected to become more widespread during the day and mixing will be limited with the latest data suggesting temperatures will be slow to rise during the day. Temperatures by midday may only be in the mid 40s NW, to upper 40s/low 50s central, and near 60F SE given clouds and limited mixing. 25-50% (near 60% for s-central VA) PoPs for showers arrive by late aftn as a shortwave trough pivots newd ahead of the broader trough, which pushes toward the mid-Mississippi Valley. Highs Thursday will likely not occur until later aftn and perhaps into the evening. Current forecast highs range from the low 50s NW to the low 60s SE. 10/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC remain in fairly good agreement depicting a wet period from Thursday Night into Friday Night as the strong srn stream system allows for quite strong longitudinal flow to extend from the Gulf of Mexico newd. This will allow deep moisture to stream into the area and overrun northward advancing warm front. As such, will continue with 70-90% PoPs across the entire area Thursday night as the first batch of deep moisture and strong lift passes through the local area. Temperatures and dewpoints are expected to slowly rise overnight into the upper 50s to low 60s resulting in widespread stratus and fog. We will need to watch for dense fog especially close to the water as these high dewpoints will overrun the relatively cold 40-45F degree water. SREF LIFR probabilities close to 100% Thursday night gives confidence of the clouds/fog. There might be some breaks on Friday, but will maintain a high chc to likely PoP, with likely PoPs once again all areas Friday night as the actual sfc low and frontal boundary moves closer to the region. There will be the potential for thunder with the main upper level trough Friday evening based on current guidance, but low-level lapse rates appear to be a limiting factor to convective potential. Not expecting heavy rainfall, but a general 0.5-0.75" of rain across the area is expected. Temperatures Friday will advect into the mid to upper 60s, with some 70F readings possible if there are some breaks of sun. Lows Friday night range from the mid 40s NW to the low 50s SE. The primary upper trough lingers over the region Saturday, with an upper level shortwave trough tracking over the area in SW flow aloft. Meanwhile, the surface cold front pushes through the area with the wind becoming northerly. All this points to a mostly cloudy day with a lingering chc of showers. Highs early in the day range from the upper 40s far NW to the upper 50s SE, with temperatures expected to remain steady or slowly fall through the day. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Extended forecast starting 00z Sun begins with a strong 1040 mb high moving across the midwest with continued NW flow across the mid Atlantic with strong CAA. The high weakens and the center passes across the NE but the result will be a return to cold temperatures Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 30s. Models are in general good agreement maintaining the broad upper trough in the east through midweek supporting persistent cold air from Sunday through Thursday next week. Lows will be generally in the teens to low to mid 20s and highs in the 30s. There will be a series of upper waves move across in the NW flow early next week which could result in periods of mid and high clouds. Model disagree some in regards to deepening of the upper trough 00z Wed through 00z Thu. The ECMWF digs the upper trough and therefore is slower to move the upper system offshore. The ECMWF also suggest more upper forcing available to support a low chance of scattered show showers some time Late Tuesday night into Wed. The CMC even tries to develop a coastal low mid week just off the coast in response to the exiting shortwave. Have a 20 POP for snow in the forecast towards the end of the extended. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure is centered over srn New England this aftn and is ridging to the SW into the VA Piedmont. Bkn-ovc cigs of 5-6kft extend from RIC-SBY with sct cirrus farther SE over PHF/ORF/ECG. The wind is light and mainly from the ENE. Patchy fog/stratus is again possible later tonight into early Thursday morning, but given what happened this morning confidence not high enough to include anything more than high-end IFR to MVFR (2-4sm) vsby in the TAFS by 07/08Z. After 12z, stratus over the Piedmont is expected to nudge ewd potentially affecting RIC/PHF prior to 18z. Becoming overcast over the entire region after 18z with IFR cigs spreading toward the coast, and a chance for rain developing Thursday aftn. A more widespread/extended period of IFR and possibly LIFR conditions with rain/fog/low clouds looks probable from Thursday evening into Friday as warm and moist air streams into the area ahead of a low pressure system moving out of the southern Plains. The latest guidance suggests some moisture could linger into Saturday with a chc of rain continuing. Drier air arrives form the NW Saturday night and Sunday as the associated cold front moves offshore and away from the area. High pressure locates W of the region by Sunday and Monday. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure will continue to drift off the New Jersey coast this evening putting the waters in southeast flow tonight through Thursday. Winds will remain around 5 to 10 knots tonight and increase during the day Thursday to 10 to 15 knots. The next low pressure system approaches the area Thursday night into Friday with increasing winds and seas ahead of the system. Mixing will be limited Thursday night due to cold water, thus have decided to hold off on any Small Craft Advisories for the Bay at this time. SCAs will likely be needed for the coastal waters late Thursday night into Friday for seas at or above 5 feet. Fog with low visibilities is also expected Thursday night into Friday morning due to increased moisture over colder waters. A cold front crosses the waters by Saturday afternoon and high pressure returns Sunday. Elevated seas and gusty winds will likely continue into Sunday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB LONG TERM...JAO AVIATION...AJZ/LKB MARINE...AJB  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 101315 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 415 AM AKST Wed Jan 10 2018 .DISCUSSION... Models...Good agreement in the short term. 10/00Z Solutions initialized well at the surface, with only minor differences when compared to the 10/06Z surface analysis. Will blend with the current database for most elements, making minor adjustments in the near term. Aloft...At 500 hpa...538 dam high 150 east of Wrangel Island this morning and will slowly rotate northeast to 300 nm northwest of Point Barrow by Thursday morning, and 400 nm north of Point Barrow by Friday morning. 522 dam low has moved over the Eastern Brooks Range and will move over Tanana by Thursday morning at 518 dam, then west over the Gulf of Anadyr by Friday morning at 512 dam. A trough will persist over the Brooks Range. Ridging will persist over the northeast Pacific and Gulf of Alaska. A 511 dam low 150 nm west of St Matthew Island with a shortwave extending east to Cape Romanzof will move northwest into Siberia and dissipate. A 502 dam low in the central Bering Sea will merge with a 495 dam low that will move south of the central Aleutians by Thursday morning and merge with a developing 495 dam low that will be 150 nm south of Nikolski. At 850 hpa...Temperatures relatively flat the next couple days, with only some weak warming in the Upper Yukon Flats, Fortymile Country, and along the AlCan border. Surface...Broad area of low pressure remains over the Bering Sea and the southwest mainland. 1038 mb high remains over the Yukon Territory with ridging extending north over the eastern Beaufort Sea and west along 75N in the Arctic, west over the south slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range, and west over the Copper River Basin with a 1023 mb high near Glennallen. Ridging over Canada will weaken the next couple days as the low pressure over the Bering Sea pushes north as a 958 mb low moves to 150 nm south of Nikolski Thursday morning, and 300 nm south of Kodiak Island by Friday morning. A 1023 mb high will develop over the Central Arctic Thursday morning, and move to the northeast Arctic by Friday morning at 1028 mb. Trough over the Arctic Coast this morning will persist into Saturday. Tight pressure gradient across the Eastern Brooks Range will weak this morning as ridging to the south weakens, then tighten back up Friday night with gusty gap winds returning. Tanana Valley Jet will weaken a bit today as the leeside troughing north of the Alaska Range weakens a bit today, then strengthen Thursday night with the gradient tightening back up. Gradient also remains relatively tight over the highlands to the north and east of Fairbanks. Tight pressure gradient over the Nulato Hills will persist. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Still getting some gusty winds in the Eastern Brooks Range this morning as the GOES IR at 10/1145Z indicates, but they will be diminishing this morning. High moving to the northeast Arctic Friday will start pinching the trough over the area, and strong winds will develop on the Eastern Arctic Coast, with strong gap wind developing in the Eastern Brooks Range as the high pressure over the south slopes strengthens. Expect some blowing snow issues east of Nuiqsut, and in the eastern Brooks Range, when the winds do kick up. Mostly clear over most of the area today, but NPP VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 10/1159Z shows stratus around a low level circulation north of Barrow that extends from Nuiqsut to Point Lay and northwest over the Arctic. GOES MVFR/IFR Probability Product at 10/1130Z indicates MVFR clouds over the same area, and observations have the stratus as low as 300 ft. West Coast and Western Interior...Mostly Clear, some gusty winds to 40 mph, mainly in the Nulato Hills, channeled areas, and downslope off the Central Brooks Range north of Ambler. Temperatures trending slightly cooler through Friday morning. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear with some high clouds mainly east of Fairbanks moving south across the area today. A upper level low over the Brooks Range will move west over the Yukon River Basin, and this may help develops some clouds north of Fairbanks. Winds continue to be strong over the higher terrain, but will settle down some today, so expect some cooler daytime temperatures with the lighter winds. The winds in the hills will increase tonight with gusts around 40 mph expected over the Ray and White Mountains, and the Upper Chena and Upper Salcha Basins. The Tanana Valley Jet will settle down today as well, then come back stronger Thursday through Saturday with gusts around 50 mph. Cold air over the area will start retreating back into Canada, but with the winds diminishing today, expect as cold or colder temperatures today and tonight for most areas. && Coastal Hazards for days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Flow becoming southwest over the area and that will allow the ridging over Canada to build back in to the interior. No precipitation expected. Cooler temperatures in the Eastern Interior, and gusty winds returning to the uplands and Upper Tanana Valley. A blend of the solutions is likely the best place to start. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory for AKZ217-AKZ223. Wind Chill Advisory for AKZ223. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210. && $$ SDB JAN 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KAKQ 100904 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 404 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains over the region this morning, then slides out to sea this afternoon and evening. A complex area of low pressure approaches from the west late in the week. A cold front crosses the area on Saturday with a return to colder temperatures by Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Current analysis indicating sfc high pressure centered over the NJ coast, slowly retreating off to the NE. Thus far, the fog/freezing fog has been slow to develop but it still may occur over the next few hrs and the best potential for fog will be along and E-of I95 as increasing clouds should at least lessen the duration of any fog over the Piedmont (esp SW). Fog could become locally dense from e-central VA to the Ern Shore. Re- freezing of melting snow has occurred with temps mainly below freezing, but much of area has also dried out. Still, will maintain HWO/SPS mention for fog potential and slick spots through the am commute. High pressure gradually slides farther E/offshore later today. becoming mostly cloudy most areas this morning with the presence of mid- level WAA, and potentially becoming partly sunny by aftn. Mainly dry with seasonal temperatures with highs mainly in the mid to upper 40s N to the lower 50s south (potentially a little warmer if enough aftn sun develops). High pressure offshore continues to extend inland into the Mid- Atlantic tonight with low temperatures generally in the low to mid 30s under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The low- level flow becomes more southeasterly during the day Thursday resulting in increasing temperatures and dewpoints along with 25-50% (near 60% for s-central VA) PoPs for showers by aftn as a shortwave trough pivots newd ahead of a broader trough to the W. Forecast high temperatures range from the low- mid 50s in the Piedmont to low 60s acrs the SE Thursday with dewpoints rising into the upper 40s to mid 50s by aftn. This warmup may be slow to overspread much of the area, especially the Piedmont as the warm air initially over-runs the cool/damp airmass. As such, the highs may not occur until the evening hrs with midday readings holding in the 40s for much of the I-95 corridor and Piedmont. 10/00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC remain in fairly good agreement depicting a wet period from Thursday Night into Friday Night as the strong southern stream system currently impacting southern the SW CONUS moves out into the plains, allowing fairly strong longitudinal flow to extend from the Gulf of Mexico. This will allow deep moisture to stream into the area and overrun northward advancing warm front. As such, will continue with likely PoPs across the entire area Thursday night as the first batch of deep moisture and strong lift passes through the local area. There might be some breaks on Friday, but will maintain a high chc to likely PoP, with likely PoPs once again all areas Friday night as the actual sfc low and frontal boundary moves closer to the region. There will be the potential for thunder with the main upper level trough late Fri aftn and Friday evening based on current guidance. Not expecting widespread heavy rainfall, but a general 1/2" inch to 3/4" of rain across the area is expected with locally higher amounts possible. Of more concern, especially for marine interests, would be the potential for fog development Thursday Night into Friday with warm moist air over cold ground. With the dewpoints rising into the 50s and even lower 60s, expect spring like fog to develop across the area. Will need to watch for dense fog especially close to the water as these high dewpoints will overrun the relatively cold 40-45 degree water. SREF LIFR probabilities close to 100% Thursday night gives confidence of the clouds/fog. Temps Thu Night will struggle to drop out of the mid 50s, while high temperatures on Friday will likely range from the mid 60s to near 70 F. Lows Fri night in the upper 40s NW to the 50s elsewhere. Showers genly ending from SW to NE after midnight. Latest ECMWF is much faster than prev runs though both the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles are slower so did not change the timing of PoPs by much. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Long term period will generally be dominated by NW flow across the region, as broad upper trof persists over the eastern half of the U.S. Starting Saturday, surface low and associated cold front continue moving EWD/NEWD away from the region, with colder air and Canadian high pressure building into the region Saturday night through Monday. Expect a dry period, with temperatures starting above normal Saturday, then normal to below normal Sunday and Monday. High temperatures expected to be in the 50s on Saturday, with max temps likely reached early in the afternoon. Colder saturday night, with low temps in the 20s to around 30 degrees (warmest near the coast). High temps Sunday/Monday mainly in the 30s, except perhaps near 40 far SE on Sunday. Lows Sunday night in the teens N/CNTRL to low 20s SE. Lows Monday night mostly in the low to mid 20s. Models diverge in the Day 6 to 7 period, with GFS more aggressive in bringing next front and unsettled weather to the region, while ECMWF is slower, with region on the warm side of the next trough through Tuesday. Blended guidance takes the middle ground on Day 7, and have utilized that guidance for Tuesday/Tuesday night. This guidance does bring precip into the region Tuesday night, with rain and/or snow possible. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The best potential for IFR/LIFR conditions will be at RIC/SBY/PHF/ORF but has been slow to materialize so far. ECG will have to be monitored closely as well. Conditions improve later this morning with VFR conditions prevailing under passing mid and high clouds and a light onshore wind. Patchy fog/stratus is again possible later tonight into early Thursday morning. A more widespread/extended period of IFR and possibly LIFR conditions with rain/fog/low clouds looks probable from Thursday aftn into Friday as warm and moist air streams into the area ahead of a low pressure system moving out of the southern Plains. Drier but a little breezy by Saturday, as the associated cold front moves offshroe and away from the area. High pressure locates W of the region by Sunday. && .MARINE... Sfc hi pres was located invof NJ attm and will be drifting slowly E and off the New England coast by this eve. Conditions will remain generally calm over the waters through the day as NE winds become E (remaining aob 10 kt). Winds become SE for Thu...increasing a little bit (to 10-15 kt) ahead of the next complex low pressure system. Similar wind direction into Thu night/Fri with the system still west of the local waters...w/ winds/waves/seas all increasing. SCA conditions are likely (at least over the ocean waters) due to seas aoa 5 ft. Fog with low vsbys also expected over the waters Thu night-Fri due to increased moisture over colder waters. Cold front crosses the area by Sat (afternoon) w/ hi pres returning Sun. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Low tide cycles will continue to gradually rise through mid week (as winds turn more onshore). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB LONG TERM...WRS AVIATION...LKB/WRS MARINE...ALB/MAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KSTO 092317 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 317 PM PST Tue Jan 9 2018 .Synopsis... Precipitation has tapered off to showers with the chance of light showers ending in the Valley on Wednesday, but continuing over the mountains into Friday. Drying trend beyond mid-week will allow for some night and morning Valley fog. && .Discussion... Update to FLS: Dry Creek in the Sac Area remains at Monitor Stage, while Deer Creek remains above Flood Stage, but is trending lower. Current trends suggest the FLS for the Srn Sac/Nrn SJV areas will be terminated this evening. Enhanced clouds from the baroclinic leaf oriented over the Srn third of our CWA are eroding/warming, signifying decreasing precip. This trend should continue as the upper level trof and closed low over Socal move into NV later this evening and then UT/AZ after midnite. In the wake of the trof axis, NWly cross mountain flow from the Coastal Range may lead to some partial clearing on the lee-side of the Coastal Range. This should be short-lived as 5H heights rebuild later tonite and Wed and push a warm front into our area. Most of the associated precip should be over the higher terrain, especially the W Slope Sierra, on Wed with mostly light amounts. The higher resolution REFs/QPFs suggest that even the Valley could see some brief light showers, at least in the morning. Snow levels currently AOA 8 kft are expected to lower below the Sierra pass levels Wed morning but with limited QPF, so we are not expecting impacts at this time. A weak trof passing to the north, moving across the Pac NW, will keep a chance of some light precipitation mainly over the northern mountains on Thursday as it rides over the ridge. Otherwise drier and mild weather is expected as upper ridging continues to build over CA later this week and into the weekend. The WAA will increase/ strengthen the subsidence inversion resulting in some dense late night/morning Valley fog later this week and into the weekend. JHM && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday) Ridge of high pressure remains in control of the region over the weekend. This will bring dry conditions and temperatures about 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals. Morning valley fog is the main issue, with night time inversions and wet ground. Upper ridging is expected to shift eastward as a weather system approaches the West Coast early next week. However, models are struggling with the progression of the system, as well as precipitation coverage. At this point, the ECMWF shows a deep trough with widespread precipitation. Meanwhile, the GFS is generally dry except for precipitation activity over the northern mountains. Therefore, the only change to the forecast was timing on Monday as guidance has slowed. Thus, forecast confidence remains low given model uncertainty. Another system could approach the area by midweek. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION... Moderate rain and high elevation snow through about 00z Wednesday bringing IFR/MVFR ceilings and visibility. Improving conditions after 00z generally MVFR occasional IFR in showers. Possible MVFR/IFR conditions in the Central Valley due to patchy fog 12z- 18z Wednesday. Winds generally below 15 knots. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Urban and small stream flood advisory for portions of the southern Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquin Valley and Delta until 615 PM PST Tuesday. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KAKQ 092107 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 407 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into the region tonight through Wednesday morning, then slides out to sea later Wednesday and Wednesday night. A complex area of low pressure approaches from the west late in the week. A cold front crosses the area on Saturday with a return to colder temperatures by Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... The current surface analysis places high pressure over the Ohio Valley and extending into the Mid-Atlantic, with low pressure well S of the region over the ern Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures have warmed into the mid 40s to mid 50s this afternoon under a mostly sunny sky, with some band of cirrus. The high is expected to gradually move ewd toward the Hudson Valley by late tonight/early Wednesday morning. The sky should remain mostly clear, before clouds increase from the W late as mid-level WAA commences. The best potential for fog will be along and E-of I95 as increasing clouds should at least lessen the duration of any fog over the Piedmont. Fog could become locally dense from e-central VA to the Ern Shore. Lows tonight range from the mid to upper 20s, with low 30s for coastal SE VA/NE NC. This could result in some re-freezing of melting snow. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High pressure remains over the region through at least midday Wednesday, before gradually sliding offshore. Mostly cloudy Wednesday morning with the presence of mid-level WAA, and potentially becoming partly sunny by aftn. Mainly dry with seasonal temperatures with highs mainly in the mid to upper 40s. High pressure offshore continues to extend inland into the Mid- Atlantic Wednesday night with low temperatures generally in the mid to upper 30s under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. The low- level flow becomes more southeasterly during the day Thursday resulting in increasing temperatures and dewpoints along with 25-50% (near 60% for s-central VA) PoPs for showers by aftn as a shortwave trough pivots newd ahead of a broader trough to the W. Forecast high temperatures range from the mid 50s to low 60s Thursday with dewpoints rising into the upper 40s to mid 50s by aftn. Current guidance does suggest some relatively cooler air will be slow to erode over the Piedmont where highs may only stay around 50/low 50s. 09/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC remain in fairly good agreement depicting a wet period from Thursday Night into Friday Night as the strong southern stream system currently impacting southern California moves out into the plains, allowing fairly strong longitudinal flow to extend from the Gulf of Mexico. This will allow deep moisture to stream into the area and overrun northward advancing warm front. As such, will continue with likely PoPs across the entire area Thursday night as the first batch of deep moisture and strong lift passes through the local area. There might be some breaks on Friday, but will maintain a high chc to likely PoP, with likely PoPs once again all areas Friday night as the actual sfc low and frontal boundary moves closer to the region. There will be the potential for thunder with the main upper level trough Friday evening based on current guidance. Not expecting heavy rainfall, but a general 1/2" inch to 3/4" of rain across the area is expected. Of more concern, especially for marine interests, would be the potential for fog development Thursday Night into Friday with warm moist air over cold ground. With the dewpoints rising into the 50s and even lower 60s, expect spring like fog to develop across the area. Will need to watch for dense fog especially close to the water as these high dewpoints will overrun the relatively cold 40-45 degree water. SREF LIFR probabilities close to 100% Thursday night gives confidence of the clouds/fog. Temps Thu Night will struggle to drop out of the mid 50s, while temperatures on Friday will likely be in the 60s. If any place across the west sees sunshine Friday afternoon, would not be shocked to see temps around 70. What a change from the past 2 weeks! && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Long term period will generally be dominated by NW flow across the region, as broad upper trof persists over the eastern half of the U.S. Starting Saturday, surface low and associated cold front continue moving EWD/NEWD away from the region, with colder air and Canadian high pressure building into the region Saturday night through Monday. Expect a dry period, with temperatures starting above normal Saturday, then normal to below normal Sunday and Monday. High temperatures expected to be in the 50s on Saturday, with max temps likely reached early in the afternoon. Colder saturday night, with low temps in the 20s to around 30 degrees (warmest near the coast). High temps Sunday/Monday mainly in the 30s, except perhaps near 40 far SE on Sunday. Lows Sunday night in the teens N/CNTRL to low 20s SE. Lows Monday night mostly in the low to mid 20s. Models diverge in the Day 6 to 7 period, with GFS more aggressive in bringing next front and unsettled weather to the region, while ECMWF is slower, with region on the warm side of the next trough through Tuesday. Blended guidance takes the middle ground on Day 7, and have utilized that guidance for Tuesday/Tuesday night. This guidance does bring precip into the region Tuesday night, with rain and/or snow possible. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure extends from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic this aftn. The sky is mostly sunny with a band of cirrus from RIC to SBY along with a light wind. High pressure gradually slides ewd tonight becoming centered over the Hudson Valley by 12z Wednesday. Some mid-level clouds are expected to approach from the W later tonight as the high slides E. However, the sky should remain mostly clear much of the night at RIC and through the overnight and early morning hours at the coast. This combined with low-level moisture from snow melt will result in some areas of fog tonight, with vsby dropping to IFR/LIFR. The best potential for IFR/LIFR conditions will be at RIC/SBY/PHF/ORF. Conditions improve Wednesday morning with VFR conditions prevailing under passing mid and high clouds and a light onshore wind. Patchy fog/stratus is possible later Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. A more widespread/extended period of IFR and possibly LIFR conditions with rain/fog/low clouds looks probable from Thursday aftn into Friday as warm and moist air streams into the area ahead of a low pressure system moving out of the southern Plains. Drier but a little breezy by Saturday. High pressure locates W of the region by Sunday with low pressure well offshore. && .MARINE... Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure centered over the OH Valley with a cold front well off the Carolina coast. The high builds east into the Mid Atlc tonight, then just offshore Wed, leading to continued sub-SCA conditions. Expect winds mainly under 10 kt during this time with just 1-3 ft seas over coastal wtrs. S/SE winds then start increasing (to 10-15 kt) Thu as the pressure gradient increases ahead of the next complex low pressure systm. Similar wind direction into Thu night/Fri with the systm still west of the area, with winds/waves/seas all increasing. SCA conditions are likely, at least over the ocean due to seas aoa 5 ft. Fog with low vsbys also expected over the wtrs Thu night/Fri due to increased moisture over colder wtrs. Cold front crosses the area by Sat with high pressure returning for Sun. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Low tide cycles will continue to gradually rise through mid week (as winds turn more onshore). && .CLIMATE... Yesterday 1/8 set 2 more record lows at ORF (10F) and ECG (7F). That will be the end of the cold for awhile. Will keep the climo information going for another AFD cycle listed below. Historically cold start to 2018, all 4 main climate sites have started the year (Jan 1st- 7th) with the coldest avg temperature on record, by quite a large margin in most cases. Except at Elizabeth City NC where the period of record is significantly shorter, this current cold spell is still not the coldest of ANY 7-day period on record, for reference/comparison purposes, these have been included as well. 2018 January 1st through 7th Avg temperature Data: * Site Avg Temp Departure Prev Coldest * Richmond: 17.8 F (-20.2) 21.1 F (1918) * Norfolk: 22.0 F (-18.7) 24.1 F (1918) * Salisbury: 16.3 F (-19.6) 18.2 F (1918) * Eliz City: 19.9 F (-21.1) 31.1 F (1940) Coldest 7-day Period on record : * Site Avg Temp * Richmond: 11.4 F (2/9/1899-2/15/1899) * Norfolk: 15.6 F (12/29/1917-1/4/1918) * Salisbury: 11.3 F (12/29/1917-1/4/1918) * Eliz City: 19.9 F (current spell is coldest) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/LKB NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB LONG TERM...WRS AVIATION...AJZ/LKB MARINE...MAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ CLIMATE...AKQ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KSTO 091817 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1015 AM PST Tue Jan 9 2018 .Synopsis... Widespread precipitation will taper off to showers today as the low pressure system moves into SoCal. Accumulating snow will be limited to the just the highest elevations. Threat of light showers continues over the mountains into Friday, otherwise drier beyond mid-week with some night and morning valley fog. && .Discussion... Update: Trimmed back areal coverage of FLS to include just the Srn Sac and Nrn SJV due to reports of standing water and streams above flood/monitor stage in the Sac Area. Orientation of baroclinic leaf roughly from N of the Tahoe area into the MTR Bay area and continuing offshore will precip going over the Srn third or so of our CWA this afternoon and early evening. Then precip will wind down before warm frontal precip is forecast to move back into Norcal after midnight and into Wed morning. Most of the precip should be over the higher terrain with light amounts. Snow levels generally AOA 8 kft and expected to lower below the pass levels Wed morning but with limited QPF. Not expecting impacts at this time but will look at that in more detail for aftn package. JHM Closed low and deeper moisture now to our south headed into SoCal. Radar shows areas of moderate precipitation continuing across interior NorCal, but less extensive than earlier tonight. 6 hour rain amounts are still above an inch from Butte County southward through the Sacramento region where low-level convergence has remained focused. The Downtown Sacramento site is now over 3 inches for the past 24 hours. Will continue the flood advisory for urban and small stream flooding into mid-morning. Wrap-around precip will continue today mainly from about I-80 southward with scattered showers further north. Snow levels are still around 8K feet or above, but may lower a bit later today. Accumulations will likely be limited to the highest terrain in the Sierra south of Tahoe and over Mt Lassen. Weak systems may keep a threat of some light precipitation over mainly the northern mountains Wednesday and Thursday, otherwise drier weather expected as upper ridging builds over California. Night and morning valley fog will be possible. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday) Upper level ridge over the west coast will bring fair skies and above normal temperatures. Morning valley fog is the main issue, with night time inversions and wet ground. A turn to a wetter pattern looking more likely early next week as a Pacific low approaches the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Much of the northern CWA will see a chance of rain by Monday night with a little cooler temperatures during the day assuming the ECMWF is on track. The GFS however is somewhat more shallow with the incoming system which would bring precipitation only south as far as about the Redding area. Snow levels currently forecast to start out above pass levels, dropping a bit on Tuesday. Confidence in the forecast for early next week remains somewhat low due to lack of coordination between models and adjustments to the forecast for this time period are likely. && .AVIATION... Moderate rain and high elevation snow through about 00z Wednesday bringing IFR/MVFR ceilings and visibility. Improving conditions after 00z generally MVFR occasional IFR in showers. Winds generally below 15 knots. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory until 915 AM PST for the Sacramento Valley, northern San Joaquin Valley and southern Lake County. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KAKQ 090902 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 402 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move across the area then off the coast tonight into Tuesday morning. High pressure builds into the region for later Tuesday morning into the first part of Wednesday, then slides out to sea late Wednesday and Wednesday night. A complex area of low pressure approaches from the west late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest wx analysis indicating sfc high pressure off to our NW with low pressure over the eastern gulf of Mexico. WNW flow prevails aloft and this flow is helping push a sfc cold front (a weak one) off to the NC coast early this morning. Some spotty light rain showers will linger through about 12Z across NE NC, and with clearing occurring farther NW, some patchy fog has developed over the Piedmont and may affect portions of the I-95 corridor through about 13Z. Genly does not appear to be dense fog as there is still some wind but locally dense fog will briefly be possible in a few spots. Lows will fall to around 30F NW, which could result in some re- freezing of melting snow. Farther S, lows should drop into the low/mid 30s. Sfc high pressure builds into the region today through this evening with dry conditions and mostly sunny skies. Highs today will avg in the lower 50s over south central VA to the upper 40s/around 50F I-95 corridor and mainly in the 40s farther east where a more significant snow cover remains. Expect clouds to increase later tonight into Wednesday morning as mid- level WAA commences Lows tonight in the mid 20s to around 30 F. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Partly sunny Wed morning then becoming mostly cloudy most areas in the aftn. Highs Wednesday mainly range from the mid to upper 40s. Any rain looks to stay off to our W. High pressure offshore continues to extend inland into the Mid- Atlantic Wednesday night with low temperatures generally in the mid to upper 30s under a mostly cloudy sky. The low-level flow becomes more southeasterly during the day Thursday resulting in increasing temperatures and dewpoints along with 25-50% PoPs for showers by aftn (and to 60% in south central VA). This as a shortwave trough pivots newd ahead of a broader trough to the W. Forecast high temperatures range from the mid 50s to low 60s Thursday with dewpoints rising into the upper 40s to mid 50s by aftn. This will bring the potential for areas of fog, especially after sunset Thursday aftn as warm moist air moves over cold ground with any remaining snow rapidly melting. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The latest 09/00Z suite of medium range models remain in fairly good agreement depicting a wet period from Thu Night into Friday Night as the strong southern stream system currently impacting southern California moves out into the plains, allowing fairly strong longitudinal flow to extend from the Gulf of Mexico. This will let deep moisture to stream into the area and overrun northward advancing warm front. As such, will continue with likely PoPs across the entire area Thursday Night with 1st batch of deep moisture and strong lift passes through the local area. Might be some breaks on Fri, but will maintain a high chc to likely PoP, with likely PoPs once again all areas fri night as the actual sfc low and frontal boundary moves closer to the region. Not expecting heavy rainfall, but a general 1/2" inch to 3/4" of rain across the area is expected. Of more concern, especially for marine interests, would be the potential for fog development Thursday Night into Friday. With the dewpoints rising into the 50s and even lower 60s, expect spring like fog to develop across the area. Will need to watch for dense fog especially close to the water as these high dewpoints will overrun the relatively cold 40-45 degree water. SREF LIFR probabilities close to 100% Thursday night gives confidence of the clouds/fog. Temps Thu Night will struggle to drop out of the mid 50s, while temperatures on Friday will likely be in the 60s. If any place across the west sees sunshine Friday afternoon, would not be shocked to see temps around 70. What a change from the past 2 weeks! Despite the upper and surface low staying west of the area, the models all agree that a strong dry slot will move into the area Friday night into Saturday. Will maintain low chance PoPs for Fri Night into Saturday to maintain forecast continuity, but it could end up being a dry period after Friday. In fact, even the cold front Saturday night may end up being dry as well but will maintain slight chance pops close to the coast Saturday night. Temps are expected to still be mild, but dropping back into the upper 40s/50s compared to 60s the day before. Quiet and much colder for Sunday into Monday as another round of cold air moves into the Middle Atlc. Highs Sunday in the 40s, and probably in the 30s on Monday as the high settles overhead and 850mb temps drop to -7 (ECMWF) to -15 (GFS). With the dry airmass and high pressure overhead, will most likely see lows in the teens/lower 20s Sun Night if not a tad colder. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Light rain pushing ESE and now moving off the NC coast. Skies have cleared out over most of VA and MD, and with light wind well inland starting to see some patchy fog. This may affect KSBY/KRIC briefly through 13Z but the dense fog is likely to remain isolated and out of TAF sites. Otherwise, W winds shift to the NNW and then the NE later today with skies becoming mostly sunny. Mainly clear tonight, some increase in clouds late but conditions look to remain VFR. Outlook...Some patchy low clouds/fog will be possible Wed night, but a more widespread/extended period of IFR and possibly LIFR conditions with rain/fog/low clouds looks probable from Thu aftn into Friday as warm and moist air streams into the area ahead of a low pressure system moving out of the southern Plains. Drier but a little breezy by Saturday. && .MARINE... A cold front reaches the coast early this morning...then continues offshore today. SW winds become NW this morning...then NNW this afternoon. Low level CAA very weak so not expecting much of a surge in speeds as winds shift. Sfc hi pres drifts over the waters after midnight tonight resulting in light NNE winds. Hi pres shifts off the coast Wed...w/ winds becoming ESE and remaining blo 15 kt. A bit of strengthening of the SE winds by Thu...though more likely to increase to SCA criteria in advance of a slow moving cold front (from the W). Due to increased moisture (on SE flow) over colder waters...FG w/ lo VSBYs anticipated Thu night-Fri. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Low tide cycles will continue to gradually rise through mid week (as winds turn more onshore). && .CLIMATE... Yesterday 1/8 set 2 more record lows at ORF (10F) and ECG (7F). That will be the end of the cold for awhile. Will keep the climo information going for another AFD cycle listed below. Historically cold start to 2018, all 4 main climate sites have started the year (Jan 1st- 7th) with the coldest avg temperature on record, by quite a large margin in most cases. Except at Elizabeth City NC where the period of record is significantly shorter, this current cold spell is still not the coldest of ANY 7-day period on record, for reference/comparison purposes, these have been included as well. 2018 January 1st through 7th Avg temperature Data: * Site Avg Temp Departure Prev Coldest * Richmond: 17.8 F (-20.2) 21.1 F (1918) * Norfolk: 22.0 F (-18.7) 24.1 F (1918) * Salisbury: 16.3 F (-19.6) 18.2 F (1918) * Eliz City: 19.9 F (-21.1) 31.1 F (1940) Coldest 7-day Period on record : * Site Avg Temp * Richmond: 11.4 F (2/9/1899-2/15/1899) * Norfolk: 15.6 F (12/29/1917-1/4/1918) * Salisbury: 11.3 F (12/29/1917-1/4/1918) * Eliz City: 19.9 F (current spell is coldest) && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Low Water Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/WRS SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB LONG TERM...LKB/MRD AVIATION...LKB/MRD MARINE...ALB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ CLIMATE...AKQ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KAKQ 082103 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 403 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move across the area then off the coast tonight into Tuesday morning. High pressure builds into the region for later Tuesday morning into the first part of Wednesday, then slides out to sea late Wednesday and Wednesday night. A complex area of low pressure approaches from the west late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... A trough lifting newd through the Saint Lawrence Valley will drag a cold front into the area later this aftn into tonight. This front has tapped into some moisture ahead of a trough over the nrn Gulf Coast with light rain extending from the Piedmont to nrn VA later this aftn. Temperatures have climbed into the mid 30s to mid 40s and dewpoints are rising into the low 30s where rain is falling so no p-type issues are expected late this aftn into tonight. Light rain will spread across the nrn half of the area tonight and then diminish after 06z as drier air pushes in from the NW. Rainfall amounts will be light, mainly a T to 0.15". Some clearing is expected across the N late, which should allow lows to fall to around 30F, which could result in some re-freezing of melting snow. Farther S, lows should drop into the low/mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure returns Tuesday into Wednesday. Mainly dry with seasonal temperatures, although expect clouds to increase later Tuesday night into Wednesday as mid-level WAA commences. High temperatures Tuesday range from the 40s east of I-95 to around 50/lows 50s to the W. Lows Tuesday night drop into the mid 20s to low 30s, and this could result in some re-freezing of the melting snow. Highs Wednesday mainly range from the mid to upper 40s. High pressure offshore continues to extend inland into the Mid- Atlantic Wednesday night with low temperatures generally in the mid to upper 30s under a mostly cloudy sky. The low-level flow becomes more southeasterly during the day Thursday resulting in increasing temperatures and dewpoints along with 25-50% PoPs for showers by aftn as a shortwave trough pivots newd ahead of a broader trough to the W. Forecast high temperatures range from the mid 50s to low 60s Thursday with dewpoints rising into the upper 40s to mid 50s by aftn. This will bring the potential for areas of fog, especially after sunset Thursday aftn as warm moist air moves over cold ground with any remaining snow rapidly melting. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The latest medium range models are in fairly good agreement in a wet Thu Night into Friday Night as the strong southern stream system currently impacting southern California moves out into the plains, allowing fairly strong longitudinal flow to extend from the Gulf of Mexico. This will let deep moisture to stream into the area and overrun northward advancing warm front. As such, will continue with likely PoPs across the entire area Thursday Night and continue with likely PoPs on Friday. Not expecting heavy rainfall, but a general half inch of rain across the area. Of more concern, especially for marine interests, would be the potential for fog development Thursday Night into Friday. With the dewpoints rising into the 50s and even lower 60s, expect spring like fog to develop across the area. Will need to watch for dense fog especially close to the water as these high dewpoints will overrun the relatively cold 40-45 degree water. SREF LIFR probabilities close to 100% Thursday night gives confidence of the clouds/fog. Temps Thu Night will struggle to drop out of the mid 50s, while temperatures on Friday will likely be in the 60s. If any place across the west sees sunshine Friday afternoon, would not be shocked to see temps around 70. What a change from the past 2 weeks! Despite the upper and surface low staying west of the area, the models all agree that a strong dry slot will move into the area Friday night into Saturday. Will maintain low chance PoPs for Fri Night into Saturday to maintain forecast continuity, but it could end up being a dry period after Friday. In fact, even the cold front Saturday night may end up being dry as well but will maintain slight chance pops close to the coast Saturday night. Temps are expected to still be mild, but dropping back into the upper 40s/50s compared to 60s the day before. Quiet and much colder for Sunday into Monday as another round of cold air moves into the Middle Atlc. Highs Sunday in the 40s, and probably in the 30s on Monday as the high settles overhead and 850mb temps drop to -7 (ECMWF) to -15 (GFS). With the dry airmass and high pressure overhead, will most likely see lows in the teens/lower 20s Sun Night if not a tad colder. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A cold front is pushing through the Ern Great Lakes this aftn, with a weak cold front trailing back through the Ohio Valley, and another area of low pressure over the nrn Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, surface high pressure is shifting offshore this aftn allowing for a SSW wind to increase to 10-15kt. Clouds will thicken and lower later this aftn into tonight as the cold front drops into the region, with cigs falling to MVFR later this evening and overnight through around 09z, with gradual improvement thereafter. A brief period of IFR cigs are possible at PHF/ORF later this evening through the early overnight hours. A period of light rain will accompany the cold front with the best chc of rain from RIC to SBY. Conditions gradually improve from N-S Tuesday as the cold front pushes offshore. This front will slowly lift back to the N as a warm front later Tuesday night into Wednesday resulting in mostly cloudy conditions. Low pressure approaches from the SW Thursday and Friday bringing a chc of rain. The associated cold front will push through the region Saturday. && .MARINE... Latest sfc analysis shows ~1030 mb high pressure centered near the NC coast with a cold front approaching the OH Valley. These features both push east tonight, with a continued decent pressure gradient over the northern coastal wtrs allowing for marginal SCA conditions through this eveng. Conditions then improve as the front approaches and drops through the area into Tue morning, with winds shifting back to the N then the E late Tue into Wed. Not a cold airmass and with water temperatures now very cold (in the 30s throughout the Bay and 40- 45 F on the ocean), do not anticipate this front bringing SCA conditions. Light ESE flow Wed, increasing into Thu with the potential for SCA conditions Fri as winds continue to strengthen and shift to the S in advance of a slow moving cold front. Fog with low vsbys also expected over the waters Thu night/Fri. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Have issued another round of Low Water Advisories over the southern Bay and rivers and coastal waters for tonight's low tide cycle. Tidal anomalies have risen slightly over past 12-24 hrs but remain low enough that most of the sites over these areas will bottom out around -1.0 to -1.5 ft MLLW. Following low tide cycles appear to be less of an issue especially towards midweek. && .CLIMATE... Historically cold start to 2018, all 4 main climate sites have started the year (Jan 1st- 7th) with the coldest avg temperature on record, by quite a large margin in most cases. Except at Elizabeth City NC where the period of record is significantly shorter, this current cold spell is still not the coldest of ANY 7-day period on record, for reference/comparison purposes, these have been included as well. 2018 January 1st through 7th Avg temperature Data: * Site Avg Temp Departure Prev Coldest * Richmond: 17.8 F (-20.2) 21.1 F (1918) * Norfolk: 22.0 F (-18.7) 24.1 F (1918) * Salisbury: 16.3 F (-19.6) 18.2 F (1918) * Eliz City: 19.9 F (-21.1) 31.1 F (1940) Coldest 7-day Period on record : * Site Avg Temp * Richmond: 11.4 F (2/9/1899-2/15/1899) * Norfolk: 15.6 F (12/29/1917-1/4/1918) * Salisbury: 11.3 F (12/29/1917-1/4/1918) * Eliz City: 19.9 F (current spell is coldest) * Today's record lows: - RIC -8 in 1970 - ORF 13 in 1970 *has been as low as 12 so far this am - SBY -4 in 1912 - ECG 16 in 1942 * has been as low as 10 so far this am && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Low Water Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ636>638. Low Water Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ632-634- 650-652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ650. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/TMG NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/TMG LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...MAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAS CLIMATE...AKQ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 081316 CCA AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 416 AM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018 .DISCUSSION... Models...Good agreement in the short term continues in the 08/00Z set of solutions. Each new set of solutions strengthens the 500 hpa low dropping south over the Eastern Arctic Coast Wednesday morning, they also continue to change what will happen with the low as it moves over the interior. Surface solutions continue to initialize well, and there were only minor differences when compared to the 08/12Z surface analysis. Limited precipitation again today, so will use the SREF solution for the short term. Temperatures continue to be difficult, models not handling the cold air advection and low sun angle which is producing cooling or flat diurnal trends, so will use the current database making minor adjustments based on current temperatures, then an almost straight interpolation for the trend. Aloft...At 500 hpa...High has moved over Point Barrow at 540 dam with axis extending north over the high Arctic, south over Cook Inlet, and west over the Bering Strait and northern Bering Sea Coast. The low that was over the northern Bering Sea yesterday has moved over Siberia and filled and the trough has move over the Siberian Coast and Western Chukchi Sea Coast. A 527 dam low lies just west of Kodiak City, and a 495 dam low has moved out of the North Pacific to Amchitka. A trough over the Beaufort Sea last night has moved over the Southern Yukon Territory and is digging southwest over Yakutat and will dig west across the northern Gulf of Alaska today and tonight. The high over Point Barrow will slide south, then move northwest over the Chukchi Sea with ridging extending south over Kaltag, then southeast over Cordova. The trough that was over the Siberian coast will ride up and over the ridge today and tonight to be over the Central Arctic by Tuesday morning, and continues to rotate over the ridge to be over the Eastern Arctic Coast by Wednesday morning with a 522 dam closed low forming and moving over the Eastern Brooks Range. The low will then back to the west over the interior through Thursday night, and will be over the Gulf of Anadyr Friday morning. The low over Amchitka will move east to Atka as it weakens to 510 dam by Wednesday morning, then moves west and merges with a low moving out of the northwest Pacific. At 850 hpa...Cooling trend continues across the forecast area. The -10 isotherm lies from Wainwright to Anaktuvuk Pass to Huslia to Cantwell to Yakutat this morning, and will lie from Point Hope to Minchumina to Whittier by Tuesday morning. The -20 isotherm lies from Kaktovik to Chandalar Lake to Fort Yukon to Beaver Creek YT and will push to the west a bit today, then start pulling back into Canada tonight. Surface...High pressure continues to build south and west over the state from a 1042 mb high 400 nm north of Kaktovik. By Tuesday morning the high moves over the Central Beaufort Sea at 1038 mb, then moves southeast over the Northwest Territories by Wednesday morning at 1036 mb. A 949 mb low near Amchitka will move slowly east to Atka by Tuesday afternoon as it weakens to 976 mb. A 1024 mb center will develop over the Upper Porcupine Basin with riding pushing west over the south slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range, while leeside troughing will build east over the Arctic Plain and Coast creating a tight pressure gradient across the Eastern Brooks Range. The troughing over the plains will also enhance the gradient over the Eastern Arctic Coast from this morning through this evening. With the high over the Upper Porcupine, a tight pressure gradient will also develop over the uplands north of Fairbanks from the Ray to the White Mountains, and southeast over the Upper Chena and Salcha Basins as the leeside trough north of the Alaska Range enhances a bit later today. As the low near the Aleutians slides east the pressure gradient over the Nulato Hills will also tighten up a bit and persist through the remainder of the week. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Ground Blizzard conditions continue from Point Lay to Wainwright, but conditions will be improving later today as the winds diminish. On the Eastern Arctic Coast blowing snow has developed and conditions will deteriorate through the day as the winds increase to 25 to 40 mph, so Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the Coast From Nuiqsut east. Winds will diminish tonight as the trough moves over the coast and the gradient moves offshore. Gusty gap winds from Anaktuvuk Pass east, developing in the afternoon, in the Brooks Range to 40 mph will produce local blowing snow that will create poor visibility at times. NPP VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 08/1137Z oonly shows some stratus around Cape Lisburne. GOES MVFR/IFR Probability Product at 08/1130Z indicates some MVFR clouds over Chukchi Sea, but offshore. Temperatures slightly warmer on the northwest coast, and cooler on the Eastern Arctic Coast. West Coast and Western Interior...Stratus over the west coast from Point Hope to the Lower Yukon Delta shows up pretty good on the GOES MVFR/IFR Probability Product at 08/1130Z, and the NPP VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 08/1137Z. As the ridge continues to build south and west the stratus is moving west and will be pushed offshore by this afternoon with clearing skies across the area. Still a few flurries with the stratus, but nothing significant. Combination of low moving to the Central Aleutians and the high building south and west the pressure gradient over the area tightens up and winds increase over most of the area. Strongest winds will be over the Nulato Hills and Western Norton Sound with some gusts near 50 mph. Temperatures trending slightly cooler through Friday morning. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear across the area, and the stratus over the southeast interior will be clearing later this morning. Some gusty winds in the uplands to the north from the Ray Mountains southeast to the Upper Salcha Basin with winds gusting to around 30 mph at times. Locally some blowing snow can be expected above treeline and may impact visibility on 12 miles and Eagle Summits, and Ptarmigan Pass along the highways. Temperatures continue to fall as cold air filters in from the east, and the coldest temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday morning as they fall to -30 to -40. && Coastal Hazards for days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Models are in better agreement. A blend of the current solutions with the ensemble mean should provide a good start. Chinook event starting late Friday will bring warmer temperatures to the Interior for the weekend, and strong gusty winds to the Alaska Range. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Blizzard Warning for AKZ201. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230- PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JAN 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 081244 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 344 AM AKST Mon Jan 8 2018 .DISCUSSION... Models...Good agreement in the short term continues in the 08/00Z set of solutions. Each new set of solutions strengthens the 500 hpa low dropping south over the Eastern Arctic Coast Wednesday morning, they also continue to change what will happen with the low as it moves over the interior. Surface solutions continue to initialize well, and there were only minor differences when compared to the 08/12Z surface analysis. Limited precipitation again today, so will use the SREF solution for the short term. Temperatures continue to be difficult, models not handling the cold air advection and low sun angle which is producing cooling or flat diurnal trends, so will use the current database making minor adjustments based on current temperatures, then an almost straight interpolation for the trend. Aloft...At 500 hpa...High has moved over Point Barrow at 540 dam with axis extending north over the high Arctic, south over Cook Inlet, and west over the Bering Strait and northern Bering Sea Coast. The low that was over the northern Bering Sea yesterday has moved over Siberia and filled and the trough has move over the Siberian Coast and Western Chukchi Sea Coast. A 527 dam low lies just west of Kodiak City, and a 495 dam low has moved out of the North Pacific to Amchitka. A trough over the Beaufort Sea last night has moved over the Southern Yukon Territory and is digging southwest over Yakutat and will dig west across the northern Gulf of Alaska today and tonight. The high over Point Barrow will slide south, then move northwest over the Chukchi Sea with ridging extending south over Kaltag, then southeast over Cordova. The trough that was over the Siberian coast will ride up and over the ridge today and tonight to be over the Central Arctic by Tuesday morning, and continues to rotate over the ridge to be over the Eastern Arctic Coast by Wednesday morning with a 522 dam closed low forming and moving over the Eastern Brooks Range. The low will then back to the west over the interior through Thursday night, and will be over the Gulf of Anadyr Friday morning. The low over Amchitka will move east to Atka as it weakens to 510 dam by Wednesday morning, then moves west and merges with a low moving out of the northwest Pacific. At 850 hpa...Cooling trend continues across the forecast area. The -10 isotherm lies from Wainwright to Anaktuvuk Pass to Huslia to Cantwell to Yakutat this morning, and will lie from Point Hope to Minchumina to Whittier by Tuesday morning. The -20 isotherm lies from Kaktovik to Chandalar Lake to Fort Yukon to Beaver Creek YT and will push to the west a bit today, then start pulling back into Canada tonight. Surface...High pressure continues to build south and west over the state from a 1042 mb high 400 nm north of Kaktovik. By Tuesday morning the high moves over the Central Beaufort Sea at 1038 mb, then moves southeast over the Northwest Territories by Wednesday morning at 1036 mb. A 949 mb low near Amchitka will move slowly east to Atka by Tuesday afternoon as it weakens to 976 mb. A 1024 mb center will develop over the Upper Porcupine Basin with riding pushing west over the south slopes of the Eastern Brooks Range, while leeside troughing will build east over the Arctic Plain and Coast creating a tight pressure gradient across the Eastern Brooks Range. The troughing over the plains will also enhance the gradient over the Eastern Arctic Coast from this morning through this evening. With the high over the Upper Porcupine, a tight pressure gradient will also develop over the uplands north of Fairbanks from the Ray to the White Mountains, and southeast over the Upper Chena and Salcha Basins as the leeside trough north of the Alaska Range enhances a bit later today. As the low near the Aleutians slides east the pressure gradient over the Nulato Hills will also tighten up a bit and persist through the remainder of the week. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Ground Blizzard conditions continue from Point Lay to Wainwright, but conditions will be improving later today as the winds diminish. On the Eastern Arctic Coast blowing snow has developed and conditions will deteriorate through the day as the winds increase to 25 to 40 mph, so Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for the Coast From Nuiqsut east. Winds will diminish tonight as the trough moves over the coast and the gradient moves offshore. Gusty gap winds from Anaktuvuk Pass east, developing in the afternoon, in the Brooks Range to 40 mph will produce local blowing snow that will create poor visibility at times. NPP VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 08/0957Z only cover the Beaufort Sea and there is no stratus showing up. GOES MVFR/IFR Probability Product at 08/1130Z indicates some MVFR clouds over Chukchi Sea, but offshore. Temperatures slightly warmer on the northwest coast, and cooler on the Eastern Arctic Coast. West Coast and Western Interior...Stratus over the west coast from Point Hope to the Lower Yukon Delta shows up pretty good on the GOES MVFR/IFR Probability Product at 08/1130Z, and the NPP VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 08/10?????Z. As the ridge continues to build south and west the stratus is moving west and will be pushed offshore by this afternoon with clearing skies across the area. Still a few flurries with the stratus, but nothing significant. Combination of low moving to the Central Aleutians and the high building south and west the pressure gradient over the area tightens up and winds increase over most of the area. Strongest winds will be over the Nulato Hills and Western Norton Sound with some gusts near 50 mph. Temperatures trending slightly cooler through Friday morning. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear across the area, and the stratus over the southeast interior will be clearing later this morning. Some gusty winds in the uplands to the north from the Ray Mountains southeast to the Upper Salcha Basin with winds gusting to around 30 mph at times. Locally some blowing snow can be expected above treeline and may impact visibility on 12 miles and Eagle Summits, and Ptarmigan Pass along the highways. Temperatures continue to fall as cold air filters in from the east, and the coldest temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday morning as they fall to -30 to -40. && Coastal Hazards for days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Models are in better agreement. A blend of the current solutions with the ensemble mean should provide a good start. Chinook event starting late Friday will bring warmer temperatures to the Interior for the weekend, and strong gusty winds to the Alaska Range. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Blizzard Warning for AKZ201. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ203-AKZ204. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230- PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JAN 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KCAE 072333 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 633 PM EST Sun Jan 7 2018 .SYNOPSIS... There will be increased moisture and a moderation in temperature associated with an onshore flow between the ridge shifting off the East Coast and low pressure moving from the Lower Mississippi River Valley into the northeast Gulf of Mexico through Tuesday. However, the moisture should remain shallow limiting the rain chances. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... One more night of arctic air over the forecast area as a 1036mb surface high remains centered over the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. A positively tilted upper trough continues to dig southeastward across the southern Plains and Texas this evening. Satellite imagery showing higher clouds expanding over the region ahead of the approaching upper trough. Airmass remains quite dry with precipitable water values less than 0.25 inches and no precipitation expected overnight despite some increasing moisture. Temperatures again will be the story as they are already dropping below freezing again and should drop into the lower to mid 20s with some upper teens in the northern Midlands and Pee Dee region. The high level cloud thickness will play a role in radiational cooling tonight so there is a bit of uncertainty will how cold it could get, colder if clouds stay thinner. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The models continue to indicate just shallow moisture in a low- level onshore flow with more significant moisture and lift associated with the upper trough staying south of the forecast area over the Gulf Coast and Florida Region. Lift associated with a northern stream system is also forecast to stay north of the area Monday and Monday night. The guidance is in good agreement with just low pops and little or no qpf. The chance of freezing rain is still too low to include in the forecast. The NAM, GFS, and ECMWF MOS keep temperatures above freezing. Believe any precipitation will hold off until well in the afternoon and be light with limited evaporative cooling potential. The SREF guidance has been consistent indicating the chance of measurable freezing rain less than 10 percent. Followed the guidance consensus for the low temperature forecast. Readings should finally remain above freezing for the first time since just after Christmas. Cloudiness favored the lower high temperature guidance. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Isentropic lift and moisture in an onshore flow may support rain Wednesday, but believe the moisture will remain shallow with upper support lacking. The GFS and ECMWF display rising 500 mb heights. Leaned toward the more consistent ECMWF MOS and forecasted just slight chance pops. Cloudiness in a wedge-ridge pattern favored the lower high temperature guidance. Moisture may become deep ahead of strong upper troughing Thursday and Friday as shown by both the GFS and ECMWF. The associated cold front may sweep through the area late Friday or Friday night with drying in its wake for Saturday and Sunday. The GFS and ECMWF MOS have pops 40 to 60 percent Thursday and Friday with the ECMWF pops highest. Used an average which was close to the ECMWF ensemble mean. The models indicate high shear mainly Friday but instability is too questionable to add thunderstorms to the forecast for now. The MOS has been consistent with above normal temperatures through much of the period. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure center to gradually weaken but remain centered near the region. Very dry low level air in place should ensure VFR conditions for most TAF sites for most of the 24 hour TAF period. Expect increasing high and mid level cloudiness. Weak isentropic lift ahead of an approaching weather system could provide some MVFR CIG restrictions on Monday, but confidence limited due to very dry low level air currently in place. Kept CIGs at just above MVFR after 08/12z at TAF sites. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Chance of light precipitation and flight restrictions Monday night through Friday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 071224 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 324 AM AKST Sun Jan 7 2018 .DISCUSSION... Models...Pretty good agreement all the way around with 07/00Z solutions, evening into the extended periods over the Arctic. Surface solutions initialized well against the 07/12Z surface analysis. With limited precipitation will use the SREF for the short term. Temperatures have been a real battle the last few days, but models are in much better agreement, so will use a blend and make some minor adjustments based on current conditions. Aloft...At 500 hpa...537 dam high has moved to just north of Point Lay this morning with the ridge axis extending northwest across the Arctic and southeast over Yakutat. By Monday morning the center will be over Point Barrow at 540 dam with the axis extending north over the high Arctic, and south over Kodiak City. A 495 dam low that was over the central Bering Sea yesterday has filled but a trough lies from west of the Gulf of Anadyr southeast over Sand Point this morning, and there is a 528 dam low over Kodiak City. The low over Kodiak City will move over the Central Gulf of Alaska at 528 dam by Monday morning, then merge with a trough that is moving south over the Yukon Territory and starts digging southwest over Yakutat Monday evening. The trough over the Bering Sea will move north up the western flank of the ridge to lie over the Siberian Coast and Western Chukchi Sea Coast by Monday morning. Monday the high over Point Barrow will slide south, then move northwest over the Chukchi Sea while the trough over the Yukon Territory digs over the Western Gulf of Alaska with a 516 dam low developing over Yakutat, and over the North Pacific a 495 dam low will move Over Amchitka then move east over the Aleutians to Atka by Tuesday afternoon. As the high moves south then northwest the trough that was over the Siberian Coast will move up over the top of the ridge to be over MacKenzie Bay by Wednesday morning with a 520 dam low developing and continuing to dig south and west as the high persists over the Chukchi Sea. At 850 hpa...Temperatures below zero with the -10 isotherm lying from Point Lay to Beaver Creek YT this morning and the -20 isotherm over Demarcation Point. The cold air continues to be pulled south over the Yukon Territory and the -10 isotherm will move to lie from Wainwright to Anaktuvuk Pass to Ambler to Galena to Yakutat, while the -20 isotherm will lie from Kaktovik to Atigun Pass to Dawson YT Monday morning. The cold air will nudge just a bit further west through Tuesday morning before it gets pushed back into Canada Tuesday night. Surface...Broad area of cyclonic flow around a 980 mb low near the Gulf of Anadyr persists over the Bering Sea and West Coast today while high pressure associated with a 1039 mb high 500 nm north of Point Barrow builds south over mainland Alaska to the Copper River Basin with a 1027 mb center developing in the Northern Yukon Territory. High pressure continues to build over the state as the low in the Bering Sea moves into Siberia and dissipates. The high in the Arctic will move to 400 nm north of Prudhoe Bay by Monday morning with a high over the Yukon Territory building to 1037 mb. A 949 mb low will move to Amchitka by Monday morning and moves slowly east to Atka by Tuesday afternoon as it weakens to 973 mb. High pressure will build in south of the Eastern Brooks Range tonight and tighten the pressure gradient across the Ray and White Mountains, the Upper Chena and Salcha Basins, and eventually the Upper Tanana Valley with the Tanana Valley Jet kicking in. Leeside troughing north of the Brooks Range will develop Monday as trough builds east across the Plains and Arctic Coast while high pressure builds west over the south slopes over the Eastern Brooks Range creating a tight pressure gradient across the Eastern Brooks Range. The pressure gradient will also tighten up over the Nulato Hills tonight and persist through the week. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Ground Blizzard conditions continue around Point Lay and expect them to continue so no changes to the Warning and the Winter Weather Advisory for the Western Brooks Range. GOES MVFR/IFR Probability product at 07/1015Z not showing much low stratus over the Arctic Coast this morning, and observations confirm that. NPP VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 07/1016Z shows a nice patch of stratus over the Beaufort Sea that is moving southwest toward the Eastern Arctic Coast and will need to be watched. Most of the area will be partly cloudy. Northeast to East winds continue across the area at 10 to 25 mph with winds around 30 to 40 mph around Point Lay. Blowing snow will continue around the area and visibility may be impacted more as winds pick up a bit this afternoon. Very poor visibility will continue around Point Lay into the late afternoon. Pressure gradient tightens up over the Eastern Brooks Range Monday with gusty gap winds to 40 mph developing. Temperatures slightly warmer on the northwest coast, and cooler on the Eastern Arctic Coast. West Coast and Western Interior...Decaying front will move north over parts of the coast today with some light snow or flurries. A slight chance of freezing drizzle or rain this morning on the Seward Peninsula. As high pressure builds over the interior it will push the front off the coast this evening with clearing over the area. Pressure gradient tightens up over the Nulato Hills Monday as high pressure builds west and the low moves to the Aleutians with winds gusting to around 50 mph locally. The low over the Aleutians Monday will swing a front north over the Lower Yukon Delta and St Lawrence Island Tuesday with a slight chance of snow. No significant changes in the coastal temperatures through Monday, but trending cooler as the offshore flow pulls cooler air out of the interior. Central and Eastern Interior...High pressure continue to build over the area. Mostly clear conditions will continue, but there is some patchy stratus in the Upper Yukon Flats and Valley, and Upper Tanana Valley. NPP VIIRS SPoRT 24 hour Microphysics RGB at 07/1016Z shows the stratus appears to be expanding to the west out of the Yukon Territory and will need to be watched as the flow around the high may continue to spread it into the Eastern Interior. The pressure gradient tightens over the Ray and White Mountains, and Upper Chena and Salcha Basins with gusting winds increasing later today and continuing into Tuesday at higher elevations. As the low moves to the Aleutians the leeside trough enhances north of the Alaska Range and the Tanana Valley Jet will kick back in with gusty winds starting Monday night and continuing into Wednesday. Temperatures will continue to fall as cold air filters in from the east with the coldest temperatures Wednesday and Thursday morning falling to the 30s below to around 40 below. && Coastal Hazards for days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Temperature forecast remains difficult, but models are in better agreement on continued cooling in the Interior. A upper level low will move over the Upper Yukon Flats Wednesday night that may spread some clouds into the area, otherwise mostly clear conditions through the week. Models are in fairly good agreement so a blend of the current solutions with the ensemble mean should provide a good start. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Blizzard Warning for AKZ201. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ205-AKZ211. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210. Gale Warning for PKZ225-PKZ230. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB JAN 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 051221 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 321 AM AKST Fri Jan 5 2018 .DISCUSSION... Models...Models are in very good agreement on the short term solutions. Surface solutions from the 05/00Z run initialized well against the 05/12Z surface analysis. Pretty quiet over the forecast area, and will models in good agreement, will use a blend of the solutions for this short term forecast cycle. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging extends north from the northeast Pacific over Cook Inlet to a 538 dam center over Denali, then northwest over the Seward and Chukotsk Peninsulas. The high will cutoff and the closed center will move over the Central Interior at 536 dam tonight with the ridging extending northwest over the Chukchi Sea and Siberian Arctic Coast. By Saturday morning the high will be over the Upper Kobuk Basin with ridging extending northwest over Wrangel Island, and southeast over Eagle and British Columbia. And by Sunday morning the high will be over the Northwest Arctic Coast with ridging extending northwest over the Arctic, and southwest over the Panhandle. A 490 dam low over the Dateline in the BEring Sea will be pushing the ridge north as it moves northwest and a strong shortwave swinging around it moves to the Western Alaska Peninsula this afternoon, Bristol Bay tonight, and over the southwest Mainland and northern Gulf of Alaska by Saturday morning. The shortwave stalls out and weakens there through Sunday morning. A second shortwave will swing around the low Sunday as the low is absorbed into a 499 dam low over the Sea of Ohkotsk. The shortwave will move over Bristol Bay Sunday morning, and moves to lie from over the Gulf of Anadyr to King Salmon by Sunday evening, and continues to move north along the western flank of the Ridge. Troughing associated with a low over the Canadian Archipelago digs in to the east of the ridge over Canada pulling cold air south. At 850 hpa...Temperatures generally below zero to around -15 over the Arctic Coast this morning. Some patches of above zero temperatures moving over the southwest mainland as the low pulls some warm air north today. The slightly warmer temperatures will persist into Sunday morning. Much colder air is being pulled south over Canada, and into the eastern areas of the state. Models are significantly divided on how much cold air will actually move into the state with the GFS keeping the -20 isotherm over the Yukon Territory, and the NAM, ECMWF, and Canadian models pulling the cold air as far west as Anaktuvuk Pass to Central to Dot Lake to Beaver Creek YT by Monday afternoon. Will lean toward the colder temperatures for the end of the short term forecast. Surface...Broad area of cyclonic flow around a pair of 960 mb lows along the Aleutians will spin a weather front north over the southwest coast, the lower Yukon Delta, Norton Sound, and St Lawrence Island. High pressure over the Eastern Interior with a 1020 mb center over the Upper Yukon Flats will slide north and east the next 24 hours to lie from a 1029 mb center near 78N 180 to Demarcation Point, then south over the Yukon Territory with rigging poking in over the Cooper River Basin. The lows over the Aleutians will merge over the Western Bering Sea near 57N 175E into a 948 dam low tonight. The low will move northeast to 60N 180 by Saturday afternoon at 968 mb, and into the Gulf of Anadyr by Sunday afternoon at 985 mb. The pressure gradient will tighten up over St lawrence Island, Bering Strait, Chukchi Sea, most of the Western Interior, and the Western Brooks Range tonight as the low moves north. The gradient will relax late Saturday morning as the low weakens. Leeside troughing north of the Alaska Range will develop tonight as a 998 mb low develops south of Nenana. This will also enhance the Tanana Valley jet as high pressure strengthens over the Upper Yukon and Tanana Valleys. A weaker high will build over the Upper Tanana Flats, but expect the gradient to tighten up a bit over the Ray Mountains as well. Leeside troughing north of the Brooks Range will develop Monday as trough builds east across the area, and high pressure builds west over the south slopes over the Eastern Brooks Range. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Relatively quiet, though the stratus is being a pain. GOES MVFR/IFR Probability Product at 05/1015Z indicates a wide swath of MVFR conditions over the area from Point Lay to Anaktuvuk Pass and east this morning and is moving very slowly to the northeast. A few flurries are occurring and will continue through the day with minor accumulations. Winds generally east at 5 to 15 mph this morning, but they will slowly increase from west to east as the gradient tightens with the low in the Bering Sea moving to the Gulf of Anadyr, then over the Eastern Arctic Coast tonight as the trough builds east over the Arctic Plains. West Coast and Western Interior...Pressure gradient continues tighten across the area today with increasing winds. The strongest winds will be over St Lawrence Island and the Bering Strait, but strong winds will cover most of the area including the Western Interior. Expect the strongest winds will be gusts to around 50 mph today and tonight before things settle down. Precipitation will be limited over the area as the front stretches out and dissipates. Some snow on St Lawrence Island and the Lower Yukon Delta today and tonight spreading to Norton Sound, the Seward Peninsula, and Bering Strait Coast Saturday night. The front continues to stretch out and reorient to north-south with some spotty precipitation continuing over the Seward Peninsula and Chukchi Sea Coast through Monday. Slightly warmer temperatures the next couple days. Central and Eastern Interior...Some gusting winds to 55 mph around Delta Junction as the Tanana Valley jet sets up, Gap winds in the Alaska Range to 45 mph, and gusty winds along the Elliott and Dalton Highways to 35 mph. Winds will increase this evening and diminish late Saturday morning. Some spotty stratus around the interior this morning will continue to hang around with nothing to push it out of the area. So temperature forecasts will be difficult as the stratus keeps areas warmer. No precipitation in the interior through the weekend. && Coastal Hazards for days 3 and 4...None. && Extended Forecast for days 4 to 7...Models vary on the amount of cold air that will filter in from Canada so temperatures over the Eastern Interior will need to be refined as the model solutions figure it out. A low moving to the Central Aleutians midweek will send another round of precipitation to the lower Yukon Delta and St Lawrence Island, but it doesn't look like it will make it much farther north than that. Expect periods of gusty winds in the Alaska Range and around Delta Junction when the leeside trough strengthens. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory for AKZ223. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ205-AKZ221. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210. Gale Warning for PKZ210. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB JAN 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KHNX 272325 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA 325 PM PST Wed Dec 27 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the area for the next several days. Temperatures will remain above normal through next weekend with dry conditions prevailing. Hazy conditions will continue in the San Joaquin Valley with areas of late night and morning fog. && .DISCUSSION... The ridiculously resilient ridge is still sitting over the west coast keeping things rather boring weather-wise across the region. Save a few weak disturbances moving southward around the periphery of the ridge creating increased clouds there is not a whole lot to talk about as this pattern looks to continue into next week. Air quality sure will continue to take a beating with the super stable conditions in place preventing any mixing from occuring. So widespread hazy conditions and morning fog will be on tap for the San Joaquin Valley. The fog may become locally dense in some locations, however, with the lack of rainfall this season the fog thickness will be minimized and with that lack of fog thickness morning lows will be lower than normal with frost in many places. The positive side to less fog is that the afternoon highs will continue to be above normal, this is only a positive if you love the warmer weather. If you don't like the warmer air then the colder air is only a plane trip away into the midwest where todays high temperature in Chicago was 6 degrees. Yes you read that right. So I guess we should count our blessings around here. Dry conditions look to continue well into next week. Of course the models are anxious to get some systems into the region, but it seems to be a pipe dream at this point. This forecaster will not be putting his money on precipitation around here for the next week. Which believe me that is a bet I would be happy to lose. && .AVIATION... In the San Joaquin Valley, widespread MVFR visibilities in haze with local IFR visibility in mist from 06z until 18Z Thu. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail over the Central CA interior during the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... On Thursday December 28 2017... Unhealthy in Kings County. Unhealthy for sensitive groups in Fresno... Kern... Madera and Tulare Counties. Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno... Kern... Madera... Merced and Tulare Counties. No Burning For All in Kings County. Further information is available at Valleyair.org && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information an/or to provide feedback. && .HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ public...Andersen avn/fw...BSO synopsis...Andersen weather.gov/hanford  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KJAX 260828 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 325 AM EST Tue Dec 26 2017 .NEAR TERM.../TODAY-TONIGHT/... An elongated sfc high pressure ridge north of the area will continue while slowly lifting northward as flow aloft backs with fast moving disturbances moving east in quasi-zonal flow. Today is more or less a transition day as we go to a more warm/moist advective pattern...and this is evident in the northwest Gulf of Mexico as isentropic ascent occurs pushing clouds northward into the west and central Gulf coast. For Today...northeast low level flow is expected with a gradual increase in low level moisture with skies becoming partly cloudy.... and occasional mostly cloudy for the coastal areas as low level convergence increases as a weak inverted trough develops offshore. Models are in disagreement in the development of a few showers with the trough offshore. But...based on a few runs of the HRRR and model consensus blend...will keep some low POPS (15-20 percent) confined in the coastal waters and along the coast from about Fernandina Beach northward. Residual cool airmass and clouds will keep highs cool still today with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s in southeast GA and mid 60s to around 70 over northeast FL. Tonight...increased moist advection aloft and weak isentropic ascent will bring mostly cloudy skies to most areas except perhaps southeast zones overnight. A few showers will still be possible over parts of the offshore coastal waters with a weak sfc trough which will actually push slowly off to the east-northeast. A few light patches of rain also possible over the northwest zones as well but overall ascent looks weak to produce any moderate rainfall potential. Included some fog with a number of models producing some fog across the srn zones and MOS indicates potential for patchy dense fog over Marion county. Low temps not as cold as this morning with mins in the mid 40s north to lower to mid 50s south. .Short Term.../Wednesday through Friday/... A frontal system will be over the region on Wednesday, with an area of low pressure moving East along the boundary. The front sinks South late Wednesday, with an inverted trough developing over area waters Thursday. A weak wave of low pressure will track East across the region Thursday, with precipitation developing both in response to the trough and the wave. The inverted coastal trough will linger into early Friday, then break down as high pressure builds from the North Friday. Cloud cover will keep temperatures above normal at night this period, despite below normal day time readings. && .Long Term.../Friday night through Monday/... A cool and dry period is expected for Friday night through Sunday. A trough of low pressure is expected to slide through late Saturday into Saturday night. While this boundary is anticipated to be dry, it will help to reinforce the cool airmass. High pressure will build to the North once again on Sunday. An area of low pressure is expected to move Eastward out of the Gulf Sunday night into Monday bringing a chance for rain. Temperatures are expected to be seasonal for this period. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue through about 12z with sct-bkn high clouds expected. Onshore low level flow and increased moisture will help develop low clouds around the 12z-18z time frame for the coastal TAFs with a chance of MVFR first starting SGJ, SSI and CRG. However...the chance MVFR cigs not enough to forecast in TAFS so will keep cigs around 3500-5000 ft. Lower MVFR probs expected at GNV. Light northerly winds early today will become northeast after 12z with winds highest for SGJ, CRG, and SSI around 10-12G20kt. && .MARINE...Guidance and coastal obs show winds of 15kt/10-15 kt over the waters for today and seas of 3-5 ft. NWPS is a bit low for the seas and have increased seas slightly over the guidance for today. As a weak coastal trough develops offshore...winds will slowly turn more northerly by this evening and overnight into Wed. Winds expected to increase further Wed-Fri as pressure gradient increases with an SCA likely by Wed night. Lighter winds look probable by late Friday night into Sat as sfc high pressure ridge sinks south. Rip Currents: Moderate Risk of Rips likely as winds will be onshore and surf increased gradually. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 58 44 50 39 / 0 20 40 30 SSI 58 49 56 48 / 20 10 30 30 JAX 64 49 61 50 / 10 10 30 40 SGJ 67 54 67 54 / 10 10 20 40 GNV 69 50 68 51 / 0 0 20 30 OCF 71 52 72 54 / 0 0 20 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ Shashy/23/  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 210819 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 319 AM EST Thu Dec 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure which is overhead will slide east tonight as a warm front nears from the Ohio valley. Low pressure will track west of Pennsylvania late Friday, with a trailing cold front coming through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Mid and high clouds have spread across almost all of the area. The lower clouds across the north should begin to retreat to the north after sunrise. Some sunshine (even on this, the shortest day of the year) is expected for the southern half of the area, especially in the afternoon. It should remain dry through the entire day. But, the clouds will start to thicken up and lower from the southwest before sunset. Maxes will be tough to call with the waffling cloud thickness/coverage. But, it is the shortest day, so will err on the side of cooler temps and go a notch below the mean of MOS guidance. This keeps the NE below freezing and southern valleys capped in the lower 40s. The S certainly has the biggest bust potential if they can stay more sunny. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... The air only gets colder tonight in the NE two-thirds of the area with E/SE winds. Not the classic cold air damming set up, with the sfc high well to the north and very little of the NE ageostrophic flow that we usually see. Still, the temps seem like they will be into the 20s for much of the area tonight. The lowering clouds and the veering wind in the Laurels should keep the temps AOA freezing there, esp on the hill tops. However, the rest of the area will get cold before the first wave of warm advection rides overhead later tonight. A significant warm nose develops over the northern half of the area through the night. Mixed precip should begin before midnight in the wrn highlands, turning to liquid fairly quickly. A very high confidence in precip occurrence (categorical POPs) exists in the north, but lower confidence in precip occurrence and coverage exists in the central mountains. Little or no precip should occur S/E of Blue Mtn. A 6-9 hour period of light freezing rain is expected in the northern half of the area. While QPF is less than one-tenth of an inch, the glaze of ice expected is enough to warrant a winter weather advisory there. If confidence in ZR increases for the Laurels or central mountains, the advisory may need to be expanded, but we felt it was better to start small - esp with the onset of any glazing 24 hours away. As temps warm in the early morning hours, the threat of slippery conditions should diminish from W-E. But, overnight commercial traffic and the morning commute looks like it will be impacted negatively. Warren county could turn to rain before sunrise, but the rest of the north will take a few more hours to get out of the woods - so to speak. The rain will become more spotty and we could have a little break in the rain before better forcing arrives in the afternoon. POPs will stay up in the 60s/70s for the day in the NW half, and stay low in the SE. The wind should be southerly for most places in the afternoon. Some cold air may be trapped under the inversion in the valleys of the NE, and they could not rise past the mid 30s. On the opposite end, the Laurels, esp the hill tops, will probably touch 50F. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An active weather pattern is expected to unfold into the Christmas with periods of winter weather potentially disrupting holiday travel. Temperatures will gradually peaking at 10 to 15 degrees above average on Saturday. A colder trend will likely be established by Christmas Eve with arctic air poised to return into early next week. Model blends should a gradual climb in temperatures Friday night into Saturday with periods of rain. A strong cold front will cross the area later Saturday with temperatures turning colder Saturday night into early Sunday (Christmas Eve) with some lake effect or orographic snow showers possible. The big question still remains concerning the potential for winter weather on Christmas Day. The operational ECMWF is still on the bullish side of the guidance for a white Christmas showing a stronger wave lifting northward near the Mid Atlantic coast, while the GFS shows a weaker wave further offshore. Given the spread in the models, confidence is low/below average on the winter wx scenario - but the risk is worth noting since it would be a higher impact event on the holiday. Beyond Christmas Day, expect temperatures to trend colder into the middle of next week. A clipper may pass to the north with lake effect snow showers likely over the northwest PA snowbelt and higher terrain of the Alleghenies. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At 06Z, lake effect stratocu covers the northern tier of Pennsylvania, where MVFR cigs are noted. Arrival of surface ridge and lower inversion heights should result in breaking stratocu across northern Pa toward dawn, as model soundings suggest. Elsewhere across central Pa, light wind and VFR conditions will prevail for the rest of the night. All model data is supporting a high confidence forecast of widespread VFR conditions and light wind during the daylight hours of today, as high pressure ridge builds across the state. An approaching warm front could potentially spread low cigs and freezing drizzle into the western mountains (KBFD/KJST) late this evening. However, the best chance will be after midnight. Outlook... Fri...Low cigs possible northwest mountains. AM -fzra possible, mainly north. Sat...Rain/low cigs possible, especially northwest mountains. Sun...Early AM low cigs poss western mtns. Evening light snow/reduced vsbys possible, mainly northwest Pa. Mon...AM light snow/reduced vsbys possible, then windy. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-037-041-042. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Fitzgerald  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 172355 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 655 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weakening wave of low pressure will pass over the area this evening generating some spotty rain showers over south central Pennsylvania. Slightly colder air moves in for Monday, but temperatures will warm a bit for Tuesday. A back door cold front will bring colder air in from the north on Wednesday. Generally dry weather with a warming trend is then expected for the last part of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... MRMS showing spotty light rain across southern Pa this evening ahead of shortwave moving in from Ohio. Near term model data continues to indicate spotty light precip will shift northward late this evening, where model soundings indicate a light wintry mix is possible along the I-80 corridor. A quick look at RWIS data shows road temps across central Pa a couple degrees above freezing, so believe the threat of icing is fairly low, but not zero. Have therefore issued a SPS across the I-80 counties this evening, to account for the potential icy spots. Shortwave and associated large scale forcing wanes late tonight, but moisture in the lowest levels climbs significantly in the nrn & wrn mtns. So, some DZ is possible over much of the area -early in the srn half of the area, and later in the NW. Very brief clearing is expected for some locations, but most places should go back to being cloudy. The SE has the best chance of clearing/higher clouds later tonight. Will keep mins within a deg or two of freezing. The temps do present a bit of a problem as any DZ that is lingering could turn to FZDZ. Lower clouds are most likely going to be devoid of ice crystals with cloud-layer temps in the -2C to -4C range, so any precip late tonight is likely going to stay DZ. The cloud thickness and amount of cooling is the key to if it gets to freezing tonight. Will only mention FZDZ here in the disco for the time being and allow later shifts to ramp up mentions and go with any SPS or WSW if necessary. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Jet right overhead Monday into Mon night, but very homogeneous at 140-150kts at that point. The lowest 3-4kft of the atmos is what will drive the sensible weather tomorrow. The mainly upslope flow into the wrn highlands will likely cause a few SHRA/SN. Temps look mild enough for mainly liquid, again due to the lack of dendrites. So, will not mention any SN in the grids. Maxes will likely range from the m30s under the clouds/DZ in the NW to the m40s SC/SE. Temps look to stay above freezing Mon night, so kept sct rain showers ongoing for mainly NW portion. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Fast zonal flow continues over the region Tue, with a trough swinging by to our north. This will drag a weakening cold front through on Tuesday, keeping mention of rain showers over the NW as a breezy westerly wind develops with 50kt 850mb jet rotating through in association with FROPA. Pattern gets more interesting for mid/late week as high pressure slides across the Great Lakes and pivots by to our north before building into New England, as the same time low pressure develops over the upper midwest (ahead of a trough sliding across the Rockies). Initial impacts will be that Wed into Wed night will be the coldest spell of the week - though Thu night could also be notably below current forecast guidance over eastern portions as high pressure will still be exerting influence there as it slowly drifts further east. This will be followed by a warmup headed toward next weekend as long- fetch SW flow brings WAA to the Eastern Seaboard ahead of the approaching low. Precip slides toward the region Thu night into Fri, before gradually spreading across the region for Fri into Sat. Precip looks to hold off over the west until the day Fri, which led me to drop mention of poss freezing precip Thu night/early Fri. Also, long range guidance is in surprising agreement bringing a surge of WAA to the region starting Friday into Sat as 850/925mb temps rocket to +5-10C Fri night which should lead to fairly mild lows (esp over the SE) and keep precip in the form of rain. The front eventually lifts through on Sat as the surface low lifts into Ontario, leading to just a glancing shot of colder air that will bring a mix of rain/snow showers to northern half, but persistent trough over central U.S. will keep push of WAA ongoing which should continue milder temps over the SE half into early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR across all of Central Pennsylvania this evening, with spotty light rain showers across portions of the region. Temperatures may be marginal to see some patches of freezing rain/drizzle mixed in at KUNV with surface temperatures at 32. Precipitation is so light and spotty, however, that it may not even occur. Opted for VCSH at this point in the TAF. Patchy DZ or very light SHRA is all we should see overnight as deeper moisture diminishes overnight. A WSW flow will keep a weak upslope flow going into the Alleghenies and Laurels Monday, so patchy DZ/sct SHRA will likely hang on tomorrow. The moisture will decrease Monday Night, and the threat of light precipitation should end. Eastern airfields should become VFR tomorrow afternoon, with central airfields right on the MVFR/VFR border. KBFD and KJST will likely be MVFR/IFR for much of the day. Outlook... Tue...Mainly VFR, Iso SHSN NW. Wed-Thu...No sig wx. Fri...SHRA poss W. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/DeVoir NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Jung/Dangelo  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 171940 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 240 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weakening wave of low pressure will pass over the area this evening generating some spotty rain showers over south central Pennsylvania. Slightly colder air moves in for Monday, but temperatures will warm a bit for Tuesday. A back door cold front will bring colder air in from the north on Wednesday. Generally dry weather with a warming trend is then expected for the last part of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Radar all lit up with warm advection precip off to our west. However, the lower 10kft over PA are relatively dry. CAMs and other deterministic guidance continue to pump out some liquid reaching the ground in the Laurels this evening. Fairly strong PVA in the right entrance region of a 120+kt jet streak. This is over the srn counties for a very brief period between 21Z and 01Z this evening. Actual -RA in obs are still about 200mi to the west, but are right under this best forcing. This same forcing wanes through the night, but moisture in the lowest levels climbs significantly in the nrn & wrn mtns. So, some DZ is possible over much of the area -early in the srn half of the area, and later in the NW. Very brief clearing is expected for some locations, but most places should go back to being cloudy. The SE has the best chance of clearing/higher clouds later tonight. Will keep mins within a deg or two of freezing. The temps do present a bit of a problem as any DZ that is lingering could turn to FZDZ. Lower clouds are most likely going to be devoid of ice crystals with cloud-layer temps in the -2C to -4C range, so precip overnight is likely going to stay DZ. The cloud thickness and amount of cooling is the key to if it gets to freezing tonight. Will only mention FZDZ here in the disco for the time being and allow later shifts to ramp up mentions and go with any SPS or WSW if necessary. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... Jet right overhead on Monday, but very homogeneous at 140-150kts at that point. The lowest 3-4kft of the atmos is what will drive the sensible weather tomorrow. The mainly upslope flow into the wrn highlands will likely cause a few SHRA/SN. Temps look mild enough for mainly liquid, again due to the lack of dendrites. So, will not mention any SN in the grids. Maxes will likely range from the m30s under the clouds/DZ in the NW to the m40s SC/SE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Fast westerly zonal flow will turn a bit more SW by Friday as a trough digs over the upper Plains. A western trough kicks a strong shortwave out across the Plains Sunday into Monday. The associated low center will move northeast across the Great Lakes staying to our north. This system will drag in some warmer air in southwest flow ahead of it. However, we may be cold air dammed near the surface so the +1 to -2C air at 850 hPa may not translate to a warm boundary layer. The warm advection should bring snow and snow to rain in the south but QPF amounts are light. Will have to watch for potential for some ice also Sunday night. Then through much of the week, we move to fast moving pattern of weak shortwaves and chances for precipitation (mainly over the northern mountains) through the week. As a northern stream wave zips by to our north by Monday night, it will bring cold air back into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. The northwest flow triggers snow in relatively high POPS in NW PA due to LES. This cold surge should be relatively fleeting and high pressure and a potential surge of relatively warmer air follows Thursday. The warm advection and approaching cold front will likely produce increased potential for snow/ice in the west Thursday night into early Friday. As precip works in on Friday, precipitation looks to transition through mixed to light rain. Temps could fall below guidance over the east Thu night if skies remain clear as exiting surface high pressure will leave a dry airmass in place. A strong frontal boundary will likely push another surge of cold air into the region Friday into Saturday as the eastern long wave trough tries to re-establish itself. GFS and ECMWF diverge by this time, with the EC moving surface low slower and thus forecasting higher pops than GFS. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR all locations at 16Z very light wind in the west and calm east. Vigorous upper level jet will move overhead this evening and last into Mon. A very brief SHRA is expected at JST this evening between 22Z and 01Z. Otherwise, some patchy DZ is all we should see overnight as deeper moisture diminishes quickly after 00Z. There is a small chance for some FZDZ overnight, but chc too slim to mention with this 18Z pkg as sfc temps should stay aoa fzg at most airfields. There may be a need to de-ice some planes as they will be going through some supercooled liquid tonight and into tomorrow. The WSW flow will keep a weak upslope flow going into the Alleghenies and Laurels. So, patchy DZ/sct SHRA will likely hang on tomorrow. The moisture will decrease Mon night, and the threat of light precip should end. Most locations will be VFR tomorrow, but BFD/JST will likely be IFR for much of the time. Outlook... Tue...Mainly VFR, Iso SHSN NW. Wed-Thu...No sig wx. Fri...SHRA poss W. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/DeVoir NEAR TERM...Dangelo SHORT TERM...Dangelo LONG TERM...RXR AVIATION...Dangelo  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KRNK 170808 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 308 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the Southeast U.S. tonight and Sunday. Lows pressure over the Southern Plains will move northeast toward the Ohio Valley and weaken tonight and Sunday. Another low over the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday will move east through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 AM EST Sunday... High pressure was along the southeast Atlantic Coast. This feature will remain relatively stationary the next few days, blocking any significant weather systems from impacting the area. There is an impressive looking short wave coming out of the Arklatex with precip advancing northeast through the Mid/Lower MS valley, but this feature will encounter this high pressure road block. As such, anticipating bulk of the rain associated with the trough to get steered around the periphery of the Atlantic Ridge, any encroachment of precip drying up as it enters the dry air and subsidence associated with the anticyclone. Sensible weather today will reflect increasing cloudiness from the approaching short wave disturbance. Some light rain is possible west of the Blue Ridge during the late afternoon and evening, but not looking for anything measurable to make it east of the Blue Ridge, although can't rule out some sprinkles. In spite of increasing cloud cover, temperatures will climb above freezing, although any significant rise of temperature will be dampened per increasing cloud thickness. Most areas should reach the 40s today, and around 50 Southside into the Piedmont of NC where clouds will be thinner...values close to the seasonal norm. Considerable cloudiness early tonight will give way to partial clearing as the system fractures. Westerly winds will permit continuation of upslope low level cloudiness along the western slopes, cloud depth shallow. With no dendritic growth forecast in the cloud, p-type would be limited to mainly drizzle. Temperatures tonight will be dependent on cloud cover, any clearing allowing readings to slip close to freezing, but if clouds persist then lows will be in the mid-upper 30s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 AM EST Sunday... The medium range models are in good agreement, especially early in the period that our region falls under a zonal flow with weak ribbons of elongated vorticity skirting to our north, especially Monday night and early Tuesday. Meanwhile, a progressive upper trof moving through the northeast U.S. Tuesday night/early Wednesday helps push a cold front through our area during this timeframe. The third feature of interest during the short term forecast is a cut off low currently near Baja California, which ejects northeast and weakens as it moves over our area Wednesday. The 00Z ECMWF is farther north with the track of a sfc low associated with this feature, and as a result, brings precip farther north into our southern zones (NC/southern VA) Tuesday night into Wednesday. For Monday, lingering moisture and upslope flow may generate some light precip in the mountains, and the GFS still hints at some light freezing drizzle/freezing rain in the Greenbrier Valley to Bath county early Monday morning. Most of the SREF members keep precip liquid or do not develop precip at all. Even if the worst case scenario unfolded with spotty freezing drizzle, amounts would be extremely light and no adverse impacts are expected. Continued to lean toward the warmer side of guidance for highs, especially in the east where more sun is expected under downsloping winds. An increasing low level jet Monday night, should keep ridges mixed resulting in warmer temps for lows Tuesday morning. Downsloping winds persist into Tuesday, which have the potential to bring very warm conditions to our region. This may be mitigated, however, by increasing high/mid level clouds. Therefore, made little adjustments to highs Tuesday which still fall on the warmer side of most guidance. Precipitation associated with the ejecting upper level storm system could arrive as early as Tuesday night, but GFS ensemble means indicate best chances for rain (south of Highway 460) would be Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Coldest air remains to the north, with just a glancing shot, so temps Wednesday will still be near to slight above normal. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 210 PM EST Saturday... The second upper low also weakens as it moves northeast but takes a more southern track through the Tennessee Valley. This short wave crosses the Mid Atlantic region on Wednesday and Wednesday night. A third upper low reaches the Southwest United States late in the week with a larger spread in models solutions concerning location and intensity. The main track of the vorticity maximums will depend on the strength of the digging trof in the central United States and the upper ridging over the Southeast. Models were showing a spread of solutions for Thursday through Sunday. In-situ type wedge of high pressure may develop over the area on Thursday. Models keep the bulk of any precipitation south of Virgina. Will keep better probability of precipitation mainly on Friday night and Saturday. Decent plunge of much colder air advertised by the GFS and ECMWF on Friday and Saturday for the central and eastern United States. Air mass will be cold enough to support snow in the mountains on Saturday. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1105 PM EST Saturday... VFR conditions are expected during the extent of the valid TAF forecasts, with mainly mid clouds increasing Sunday. May start to see clouds lowering toward low end VFR in the mountains Sunday evening with a few showers possible. Extended Discussion... A weak frontal system approaching from the west may induce a brief period of MVFR with light rain showers across the mountains through Sunday night. This may impact KBLF and KLWB. VFR cloud bases anticipated elsewhere. Little or no impact is expected to aviation for the central Mid-Atlantic through mid week as weather features remain well north and south of the geographic region. The greatest potential will be Wednesday night, but even here, guidance is still not consistent with its various solutions. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...PM/WP SHORT TERM...PH LONG TERM...AMS/PH AVIATION...DS/WP  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KJAX 170801 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 301 AM EST Sun Dec 17 2017 ...WARMING TREND WITH A LOW CHANCE OF INLAND SHOWERS... .NEAR TERM...Today and Tonight... Synopsis...Moderating temperatures back to above climo values with increasing moisture across the area bringing more cloud cover, a low chance of inland showers, and late night fog tonight. Mean layer ridging will be in the control of the area with a mean trough upstream over the western tier of the country. This broad synoptic pattern will keep deepest moisture and forcing WNW of the region and bring a warming trend under the upper ridge. At the surface, high pressure over the Carolina Atlantic coast early this morning will shift ESE through tonight centering offshore of the Fl Atlantic coast with a ridge axis extending across central Florida by 12Z Monday morning. As the ridge swings southward, a warm front will lift northward from south Florida this morning to north of the Altamaha River basin this afternoon. Shallow moisture pooling and lift along the warm front could spark a few inland showers generally west of the Highway 301 corridor this afternoon. Dry conditions expected toward the Atlantic coast and southward toward Palatka and Ocala where subsidence will be stronger near the low level ridge axis as it builds across central Florida. Surface winds will veer from ENE this morning to the SE through the afternoon, becoming southerly tonight which will not only warm temperatures but also increase low level moisture. Abundant cloud cover will blanket much of SE GA near the lingering front and over the top of the upper level ridge tonight where a low chance of a shower will be possible generally from Douglas toward Jesup northward, while less high clouds and stronger low level subsidence over NE FL tonight favors fog potential. Included patchy fog for SE GA with areas of fog/patchy dense mentioned for NE FL south of I-10 corridor. After a chilly morning with lows in the mid to upper 30s across parts of SE GA to low/mid 40s NE FL, temperatures will moderate above climo values with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s as low level winds swing around the SE through the day and upper ridge persists aloft. Tonight, mild minimum temperatures in the mid to upper 50s are expected, with fog expected across much of the area. .SHORT TERM /Monday and Tuesday/... Mild conditions will prevail with temperatures well above normal for most of the area, despite partly to mostly cloudy skies. Light southerly winds will prevail as high pressure dominates the area. A very strong upper high will be over Cuba with ridging stretching northward across our region. A quasi-stationary warm front will be positioned just northwest of our area and this boundary will be the primary focus for the best chance of rainfall which should remain west and northwest of our area on Monday. Nevertheless, an increase in deep layer moisture in association with an upper shortwave trough embedded in the fast moving flow around the northwest periphery of the large high aloft over Cuba will support a low chance of a few light to moderate showers north of Interstate 10 on Monday. The best rain chances (40-50%) will be across our northern zones near the Altamaha River basin. Rainfall amounts should be generally light. Conditions will be favorable for an advective fog/stratus layer moving into our western zones Monday night. Have added areas of fog in that area for now. Tuesday should remain primarily dry and very mild with near record temps possible across portions of the area. .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... Ridging will primarily remain the dominant feature with rather mild conditions continuing into next weekend. A low pressure system will track east northeastward from the southern plains Tuesday night and is expected to pass north of our area on Wednesday. The ECMWF continues to be persistent with this solution. This track would keep the more widespread rainfall northwest and north of our area. A weak trailing cold front, however, will move into southeast Georgia and bring a chance for a few showers to our area Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night. The best rain chances with this system (50-60%) will be across our northern zones. Ridging will begin to amplify again over the region in the wake of this system Thursday through Saturday with mild and mainly dry conditions prevailing. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions through 00Z. Mid and high clouds will pass over the area today as winds veer from ENE to SE into the afternoon with speeds 10 kts or less. Tonight (Sun night) conditions become more favorable for restrictions due to both stratus and fog. 00Z SREF model guidance indicating highest potential for restrictions near SGJ with IFR probabilities at about 20%. && .MARINE... Surface high pressure will build southeast from offshore of the Carolina Atlantic coast today to offshore of the Florida Atlantic coast through Tuesday. A cold front will approach the local waters late Wednesday with an increase in offshore flow preceding the front with the potential for marginal exercise caution conditions over the outer waters. Winds shift onshore trailing the front Thursday as high pressure builds NE of the waters and a coastal trough develops offshore of the FL Atlantic coast, but surge not expected to meet headline criteria. Rip Currents: Low risk today and Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 69 57 73 60 / 20 20 40 10 SSI 64 57 71 61 / 0 0 20 10 JAX 71 58 79 60 / 0 10 20 0 SGJ 70 59 77 61 / 0 0 10 0 GNV 75 57 80 57 / 10 10 10 0 OCF 76 57 80 57 / 0 0 10 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ Enyedi/Shuler/  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KMOB 152142 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 342 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017 .NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...Upper air map analysis show complex trof axis aligned from the Great Lakes, southward over the Mississippi Valley, then southwest across the Red River Valley of Texas/Oklahoma to the southern reaches of the Gulf of California. East of this feature, forecasters continue to see east Pacific moisture being tapped with a large area of clouds streaming northeast over the deep south. Surface cold front has settled into the central Gulf with high pressure over Texas beginning to expand eastward into the deep south. Very little change in the forecast upper level geo-potential height fields tonight which should maintain a modest percentage of opaque mid to high based cloud cover into tonight. The degree of cloud thickness though may lower somewhat as band of strong upper level westerlies over the southeast US begins to lift out through the night. Have decided to go a few degrees above guidance on overnight lows out of respect for clouds which removes radiational cooling component. During the day Saturday, the southwest portion of the upper trof axis over the Gulf of California begins to open up and lift northeast. Even so, the high level flow remains from a southwest direction which keeps potential of clouds in place, mixing in with sun at times. Surface high pressure slips into the southeast US Saturday which favors a gradual moderation in daytime highs as winds become more southeasterly in direction by later in the day. /10 .SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/... Surface high pressure moves off the southeastern sea board leading to the development of a southeasterly surface windflow. Winds aloft back to the southwest as the deep upstream trough slowly propagates eastward and a warm frontal boundary pushes northward from the Gulf of Mexico and into the forecast area Sunday afternoon. As a result, a warm and wet pattern sets up across the region with precipitable water amounts climbing as high as two inches over coastal counties. Strong warm advection will provide enough isentropic ascent to produce widespread rain. Upper level dynamics provided by minor shortwave troughs moving through the very moist upper level flow should be enough to generate some embedded showers from time to time. The potential exists for 1 to 2 inches of rainfall from Sunday through Monday night. Widespread fog development is also likely especially near the coast Sunday night and Monday night as very warm, moist air advects over our much cooler coastal waters. Temperatures during this time will trend well above climatological norms. /08 .LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...Models are again divergent on the long term solution. The GFS is advertising enough upper level support to push a cold front across the forecast area Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. However, the ECMWF is not as progressive with the low pressure system to our west and keeps us in the wet...soupy pattern through Thursday. Trended forecast more towards GFS as ECMWF seems to be overly deepening upper levels waves off the U.S. southwest coast which in-turn leads to a slower eastern progression. Temperatures expected to trend near normal Wednesday and Wednesday night but warmer than normal as a southeasterly windflow develops in advance of the next approaching cold front. /08 && .MARINE...By Saturday night as a warm, moist, onshore flow evolves atop cooler water temperatures over bays, sounds and near shore waters, the stage would be set for the development of advective type fog. A better coverage of widespread and potentially dense fog, likely limiting visibility to below a mile or less, will likely lead to an increased probability of hazardous boating impacts Sunday night through Tuesday morning. /10 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 36 56 50 71 64 73 62 74 / 10 0 10 80 70 70 40 50 Pensacola 40 57 52 71 65 73 65 75 / 10 0 10 60 70 60 40 40 Destin 42 57 54 70 65 72 66 74 / 10 0 10 50 60 50 30 40 Evergreen 33 58 43 70 62 73 62 75 / 10 0 10 70 70 60 50 60 Waynesboro 30 56 41 68 60 70 61 70 / 0 0 10 90 70 70 60 50 Camden 30 56 42 67 61 70 61 71 / 0 0 10 70 70 70 60 60 Crestview 36 58 44 71 63 73 62 76 / 10 0 10 50 60 50 30 60 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KILX 140000 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 600 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday) ISSUED AT 308 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 A 992 mb low is centered near Milwaukee this afternoon and a cold front trailing from the low southwestward through roughly the I-55 corridor, pushing southeastward. Brisk winds were gusting up to 40 mph well ahead of the front, with a short lull in winds until behind the cold front where gusts to around 45 mph are prevalent, with the winds shifted to WNW. Expecting the strongest winds to push east to the IN border by around sunset, then winds will begin to taper off a few hours after sunset across central IL as the parent low moves rapidly east and the strongest winds aloft and surface pressure gradients shift east. A wind advisory remains in effect until 9 p.m. for most of central Illinois except for Richland, Lawrence, and Crawford Counties. Light showers can also be expected along the front this afternoon, with little or no measurable precipitation. Overnight, winds will gradually decrease as a high pressure ridge approaches from the west. Winds will end up light WNW only around 5 mph during the day Thursday as a result of the ridge. Expect lows tonight back down to the low to mid 20s as cold post-frontal air moves back in from the northwest, with highs Thursday only in the low to mid 30s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday) ISSUED AT 308 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 The next weather system will arrive early Friday morning as a shortwave trough arrives from the northwest. Models produce only scattered and very light precipitation with this feature, however it will likely be able to produce some flurries north of I-70. After this, the pattern begins to shift as the large-scale eastern trough/western ridge move east with ridging and southerly flow developing into the central U.S. bringing warmer temperatures reaching the 40s in central IL through early next week. A disturbance embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft will provide a chance of rain Sunday, potentially beginning as light snow early Sunday morning. After that, models disagree on timing and track of precipitation, however general trends in the pattern suggest precipitation gravitating toward the southeast U.S. early next week as the west coast ridge and eastern trough re-establish. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) Issued at 600 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017 A deep surface low just east of Chicago will continue to pull away to the east this evening. An expansive area of MVFR clouds are expected to rotate through central Illinois behind the low. HRRR is optimistically showing ceilings improving to VFR toward 06z, but confidence on that is low. HRRR is also showing clearing in N Illinois expanding toward our I-74 TAF sites after midnight. PIREPs are showing the cloud thickness to be about 2,000 feet, which is thick enough to reduce the chances of the cloud layer thinning out overnight. Have kept MVFR conditions through 06z, but may need to extend later. Strong W-NW winds will continue this evening. Mixing heights will lower after 03z, which will help gusts diminish by midnight. By sunrise, the pressure gradient and height rises will weaken enough for sustained winds below 10kt. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for ILZ027>031-036>038- 040>057-061>063-066-067-071. && $$ SHORT TERM...37 LONG TERM...37 AVIATION...Shimon  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KPAH 112152 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 352 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 338 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 238 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 A dry cold front was making its way southeast across Missouri this afternoon. Northwest winds were gusting to around 40 mph behind the front this afternoon. The front will cross the lower Ohio Valley this evening, followed by increasing northwest winds and post-frontal stratocumulus clouds. Peak wind gusts behind the front should be in the 30 to 40 mph range tonight, based on the momentum transfer algorithm in Bufkit. A few sprinkles or flurries may follow the front late tonight, especially in southwest Indiana and northwest KY. Lows will fall to around 30 early Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be colder behind the front. 850 mb temps will be close to minus 10 at times, limiting surface high temps to the 30s despite ample sunshine. Winds will diminish as high pressure builds closer. The slightly higher humidity and lower winds should preclude the need for another Red Flag Warning in Missouri on Wednesday. See Fire Weather section for details. Winds will be southwest again on Wednesday ahead of another cold front. This cold front also looks to be dry. Highs on Wednesday will recover into the lower 40s in southwest IN to the lower 50s in se Missouri. This front does not look as strong as the front coming through tonight, so forecast lows Wed night will be in the lower 30s. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 238 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 At the beginning of the period, a large upper level low will be north of New England with a ridge persistent over the Pacific Coast region. Unsettled NW flow aloft will continue across the nation east of the Rockies and over our area until then. A trof will move southeast across the area Thursday night into Friday morning. Only a few flurries will be possible mainly in the westernmost southeast Missouri counties. Models take a different view of the weekend storm. The GFS has the trof digging into the Southern Plains over the weekend, pulling moisture north into the area in advance of an area of surface low pressure that is forecast to be over northern AR by Sunday morning. Rainfall is concentrated over the southern half of the forecast area. The ECMWF pulls that low further north into central IL along with the moisture showing very little in the way of rain anywhere in our area. The CMC is somewhere in the middle and has more of an elongated but open wave keeping the southern moisture south of the area with little moisture to the north. The official forecast has chance pops across much of west Kentucky with slight chance elsewhere from early Sunday morning through Sunday evening. Temperatures will remain below normal through the end of the week and nudge a little higher to highs in the 50s over the weekend with lows staying above freezing. && .AVIATION... Issued at 338 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 A quick look at frontal position at 21Z shows it is on track/poised to make passage across the terminals during the next 3 to 6 hours. We'll see VFR conditions deteriorate shortly after passage, with MVFR bases appearing, possibly going with CIGS for a short duration as winds shift to gusty northwest. The chance of pcpn reaching the ground is minimal, with very dry air above and below the roughly 2-3K FT cloud thickness. While winds continue/gusty northwest tmrw, skies should abruptly clear by late morning/into the planning period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 238 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2017 A combination of very low rh, strong winds, and severe drought has necessitated a Red Flag Warning for the Ozark foothills through early this evening. The rh at the West Plains ASOS was 13 percent with a sustained wind of 20 mph early this afternoon. Winds will remain gusty much of the night, but rh recovery should be rather strong this evening as temps cool down behind a cold front. The lack of precip the remainder of the workweek means fire weather will still be a concern in the drought-stricken areas of the Ozark foothills. Winds will be on the gusty side, and rh will be quite low each of the next couple afternoons. The combination of winds and rh is not expected to be quite as conducive for fire spread as it was today. Therefore, the elevated fire danger will be handled in the HWO as opposed to any watches or warnings. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ098-100- 106>109. IN...None. KY...None. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KSEW 021737 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 937 AM PST Sat Dec 2 2017 .SYNOPSIS...A cool showery low pressure system will move slowly across the region today through Sunday morning. Strong high pressure aloft will then prevail over the area through much of the upcoming week. Expect stagnant conditions to develop next week. && .SHORT TERM... There were numerous showers over the CWA at this time. So far, haven't seen any lightning strikes offshore under the cold pool aloft. Confidence in the threat of thunderstorms over the coast was not high. Based on the latest model guidance, it appeared that the threat (albeit low) will remain over the coastal waters, where the instability will be the greatest. Will leave the forecast as is and monitor trends. Still looking at modest snowfall amounts on Mount Rainier, where a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect. It looks like the snow will be heaviest this afternoon through this evening. New snowfall amounts will be in the 6-12 inch range on the Cascades in Pierce and Lewis Counties, with the heaviest amounts occurring on Mount Rainier. Meanwhile, the low pressure system offshore will continue moving east during the day today. It is expected to move across the region tonight. By late Sunday morning, the upper level trough will be over the Great Basin. An upper level ridge will build over the area from the west on Sunday, resulting in a drying trend. Expect the ridge to slowly strengthen over the Pacific Northwest Sunday night and Monday. The ridge will be somewhat dirty; therefore, expect primarily mid and high clouds to stream across the CWA from the north. .LONG TERM FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION... The strong upper level ridge will continue to build over the Pac NW through next week. However, a strong low level inversion will likely lead to stagnant conditions across the interior lowlands. In this pattern we typically see fog developing overnight which may not completely burn off during the afternoon. This makes temperature forecasting very difficult with highs ranging from the 30s to mid/upper 40s, depending on the fog thickness. Light winds and weak mixing may also lead to deteriorating air quality. Above the inversion, in the mountains, it will be warmer with plenty of sunshine. The ridge may weaken or flatten by next weekend but will stick with persistence for now. 33 && .AVIATION...A weak front will move through the area today with southwest flow aloft. An upper trough will move over the area tonight. The air mass is moist and stable. It will become unstable near the coast in the afternoon. KSEA...MVFR low clouds should develop in the next few hours as a front moves onshore. Low clouds will persist tonight and into Sunday morning. Southeast wind 5-10 knots will become variable this evening and then northerly later tonight. Schneider && .MARINE...A weak front will bring marginal small craft advisory strength winds to some of the waters today. There will also be 10-12 foot west swell over the Coastal Waters today. These will gradually subside below 10 feet tonight and Sunday. High pressure will move over the area Sunday and then shift inland Monday with offshore flow developing. There will be some small craft advisory strength northerly winds over the Coastal Waters Sunday. These will ease and turn more easterly by Monday. Offshore flow will continue Tuesday and Wednesday. Schneider && .HYDROLOGY...River flooding is not expected the next 7 days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties above 2000 feet. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Admiralty Inlet-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM PST Sunday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM PST Sunday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. Small Craft Advisory for rough bar until 6 AM PST Sunday for Grays Harbor Bar. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 1 PM to 4 PM PST this afternoon for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM PST Sunday for Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm. && $$ www.weather.gov/seattle  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KGSP 301745 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1245 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach the region from the northwest today and settle south of the area on Friday. Moisture may briefly return over the front early this weekend, but then dry high pressure will redevelop Sunday through Monday. A stronger cold front will approach our region from the west by the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1245 PM EST Thursday: Isolated showers will move across NE GA and the southern Upstate early this afternoon. Expect coverage to increase across the mountains, NE GA, and the Upstate late this afternoon into the evening as a weak frontal system approaches from the west. The associated short wave is weak as well, keeping overall forcing limited. The band of deep moisture associated with the system is also narrow with little to no Gulf inflow, also limiting precip chances. Kept likely PoP confined to the TN border counties where westerly upslope flow will help maximize precip chances. Chance PoP for NE GA and the western Upstate. I-40 corridor has the lowest chance of seeing any precip where moisture inflow is least and flow turns downslope more quickly. Expect only isolated showers for the CLT metro. QPF will be light across the mountains and very light elsewhere. Lows tonight will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal with the clouds and weak WWA ahead of the front. Any precip tapers off quickly as the front moves east of the area Friday. There could be some lingering moisture keeping lower clouds over the area through the morning. High pressure builds in from the north, but temps remain nearly steady as any cool air is delayed. Highs will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal outside of the mountains and around 5 degrees above normal across the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 AM EST Thursday: Broad ridging will build over the region from the west Friday through Friday night before additional shortwaves cross the area in increasingly zonal flow aloft on Saturday. Although mid and upper drying should occur behind the cold front settling southeast of our area during this period, 850 mb moisture will linger over the region and moist upglide will likely redevelop Friday night into Saturday as 1028 mb surface high pressure sets up to the north. Fairly abundant clouds should result but precipitation looks much less certain. Any QPF will be light through Saturday, with the best chances over the southern half. Temperatures should dip sharply back toward, or slightly below, climo - especially for Saturday afternoon maximum temperatures. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 215 AM EST Thursday: Stronger ridging will build over the eastern CONUS on Sunday before the ridge axis moves off the east coast late Monday. Major height falls will set up across the Canadian/U.S. Rockies early next week - with a prominent trough crossing the plains Tuesday and bottoming out over the OH/MS River Valleys on Wednesday. An associated cold front will push eastward toward the Appalachians through this period, with deeper moisture arriving from the west on Tuesday and likely crossing our forecast area Tuesday night through Wednesday. The best southwesterly low level jet should ramp up Tuesday night ahead of the boundary and bring a local focus of heavier QPF to the southern/southwestern mountains. Instability looks rather limited while deep layer shear could reach 50 to 60 kt with the fropa. Will keep thunder out of the forecast for now given the fairly modest lapse rates. Cannot rule out a late day Wednesday mixover to snow showers in the higher terrain of the western mountains as northwest upslope flow develops and the colder air begins spilling in. This will herald the onset of a major pattern change for the eastern U.S. developing just beyond the current extended period late next week when much colder temperatures are likely to arrive. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At KCLT and Elsewhere: VFR conditions expected into the evening. However, there will be some lower VFR stratocu floating around through the day with those clouds becoming cigs by evening at the western sites. Showers more likely across the western sites as well this evening as the weak front moves through. Generally SW winds today become light and variable overnight. MVFR conditions likely overnight with vsby and cigs about equal chances. IFR probable for the western sites so have TEMPO for those. IFR and precip least likely at KHKY and less likely at KCLT. Conditions should clear out after daybreak as high pressure builds in. However, some lingering low VFR clouds possible. Winds become NE and increase in speed through the morning. Outlook: High pressure remains in place through the weekend. That said, remnant low level moisture in the vicinity could lead to restrictive conditions on Saturday and possibly Sunday as moist upglide is favorable. Restrictions and precip may return by mid week as a cold front moves in from the west. Confidence Table... 17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-12Z KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100% KGSP High 100% High 100% High 95% High 94% KAVL High 100% High 100% Med 78% Low 54% KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 83% KGMU High 100% High 100% High 90% High 94% KAND High 100% High 100% Med 63% Low 52% The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts are available at the following link: www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HG NEAR TERM...RWH SHORT TERM...HG LONG TERM...HG AVIATION...RWH  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 282159 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1259 PM AKST Tue Nov 28 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...The 28/12Z solutions did initialize well against the 28/18Z surface analysis for positions and central pressures.Good agreement aloft in the short term for this set of solutions. Moving into the extended periods there continues to be some similarity in the solutions early, then significant differences the further out they go. Will use an equal blend for the short term, but will need to go in an tweak the temperatures individually. For the extended periods will lean on the WPC solutions which used primarily a blend of the Ensemble means. Aloft...at 500 hpa...Ridging extends south over the Arctic Coast from a 545 dam high over the Pole and will slide west to the Dateline by Wednesday morning as a 503 dam low develops south of Banks Island and moves west over Prudhoe Bay by Wednesday morning. The low will continue west to the Chukchi Sea by Wednesday night at 506 dam, then southwest over the Bering Strait by Thursday morning. A 510 dam low over the Central Brooks Range will move southwest over Kotzebue by Wednesday morning, then merge with the low moving over the Bering Strait. A weak trough will persist over the Arctic Plain. Weak ridging over the Southeast Interior will slide north a bit and push into the Central Interior east of Tanana tonight an persist into Wednesday night before breaking down. A 491 dam low near Cold Bay will weaken to 505 dam as it moves over Sand Point by Wednesday evening, then moves south of the Gulf of Alaska as it continues to weaken. Ridging over the Western Bering Sea will move to the Eastern Bering Sea and Bering Strait by Thursday evening. A col will develop over the Central Interior Thursday and be pushed out by Friday morning as the ridging over the West Coast moves inland. At 850 hpa...Temperatures over the forecast area will remain fairly static from -5C to -15C as the -10 isotherm lies from Norton Sound to Eagle through Thursday. Surface...Ridging continues over the Central and Eastern Interior with a 1005 mb high over the Yukon Territory and a 1002 mb high over the Upper Yukon Flats. A 953 mb stacked low over Dutch Harbor will slowly move to Sand Point by Wednesday evening, then moves southeast into the north Pacific as it weakens. A ridge of high pressure will push north over the western Bering Sea Wednesday evening, and moves to the Eastern Bering Sea south of the Bering Strait by Thursday morning. A weak high pressure pattern will persist over the interior through the week. A weather front will move to the Western Bering Sea Thursday morning, and to the West Coast and Bering Strait by Friday morning. High pressure over the Arctic will persist as a 1028 mb high north of the Canadian Archipelago moves southwest to the Dateline, then west into the Siberian Arctic. A weak trough will persist over the Arctic Plain extending east to a 997 mb low near Banks Island. Leeside troughing north of the Alaska Range with enhanced pressure gradient in the upper Tanana Valley and across the Alaska Range as high pressure persists over the Copper River Basin and Yukon Territory. The high breaks down a bit Thursday, but expect it to return on Saturday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus persisting over the area can be seen on the SPoRT NPP VIIRS Nighttime Microphysics RGB product at 28/1746Z. GOES MVFR Probability from 28/1845Z showing most of the Chukchi Sea and Arctic Coast have high probability of stratus. With weak troughing in the area expect the stratus to continue to hang over the area with flurries and patchy fog. Winds along the coast will be primarily northeast at 10 to 20 mph, while inland winds will be southeast to southwest at 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures falling slowly through the weekend. West Coast and Western Interior...Some stratus floating around in the Bering Strait, Norton Sound, the Lower Yukon Delta, and the Eastern Bering Sea may produce some light snow of flurries, up to 1 inch of snow can be expected on St Lawrence Island, elsewhere no significant accumulations is expected tonight. Winds on the coast northwest to northeast and generally decreasing overnight south of Kivalina. North of Kivalina winds increasing with gusts around 50 mph. Winds on St Lawrence Island and the Lower Yukon Delta will be northeast to east at 15 to 30 mph. Temperatures steady to slightly warmer as some warm air is pushed north. Central and Eastern Interior...High pressure over the Yukon continues to hold on impacting the weather in the Central and Eastern Interior. Tanana Valley Jet will persist and increase some overnight as the gradient tightens up a bit so expect gusts to 45 mph developing. Gap flow winds will develop across the Alaska Range as well with some gust to around 40 mph tonight and Wednesday, then gusts around 50 mph Wednesday night. A bubble high develops north of the Ray Mountains, so expect some gusty winds along the Elliott Highway to 45 mph tonight, strongest through Ptarmigan Pass. With the exception of some high clouds moving through the area, most areas will be partly cloudy the next couple days. Not much snow in the forecast at this time, next chance looks like Thursday for the Fairbanks area. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Strong southeast to south winds developing in advance of a storm in the Bering Sea has the potential to produce High Surf on St Lawrence Island and in Norton Sound Thursday night through Friday. && Extended Forecast days 4 to 7...Relatively quiet in the Arctic and over the West Coast. A weather front will move over the West Coast Friday night and dissipate as it moves inland Saturday and Sunday. Strong gusty winds will develop over the West Coast and Chukchi Sea Saturday and persist into Monday. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory for AKZ219-AKZ221. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225- PKZ230. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ230. Gale Warning for PKZ220-PKZ225. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235. && $$ SDB NOV 17  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDMX 252133 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 333 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2017 .SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Sunday/ Issued at 330 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2017 Bottom Line Up Front... An extremely quiet weekend weather-wise, with well above-normal temperatures expected to continue through tomorrow. Aloft, 20z Water vapor imagery easily picking up on large ridge that expands northward well into central Canada. At the sfc, a well- defined 1025mb sfc high was centered over Kansas and propagating fairly quickly to the ESE. Large-scale subsidence and dry-air entrainment are clearly dominating as vis sat imagery shows little to no cloud cover. 850mb temps started today around the +1C to 4C range across the DMX CWA. For 12z Sun, they should be around +2C to +5C. Models are trying to bring some upper-level clouds currently located over the Pacific NW into Iowa during the day tomorrow. However, upper level jet loses structure as it pushes into the Midwest, so although there will likely some upper level clouds tomorrow, am not expecting overcast day. In all, persistence will be a close forecast for Sunday temperatures. For this evening into tonight, winds quickly decouple after sunset. With little to no cloud cover expected, could be a decent radiational cooling night... though not "textbook" as WAA will be ongoing/continuing. .LONG TERM.../Sunday night through Saturday/ Issued at 330 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2017 Bottom Line Up Front... Record to near-record high temperatures expected once again across Iowa for Monday afternoon. Generally above-normal temperatures should continue for the rest of the upcoming week, with slight rain chances towards mid-week. Monday... As has been well-advertised, core of the thermal ridge will crash down over Iowa Monday. There is value in comparing the overall setup from Friday, where record temperatures were set at numerous locations across the state. Overall pattern very similar. 850mb temps of +15C to +18C are a degree or two warmer, if anything, than they were for Friday. Minimal cloud cover expected, so parameters in place for near-record highs in central to southern Iowa. Interesting that the record high at Estherville is 75, and Mason City is 71, while Des Moines is at 68... all records in 1998. Tuesday into Thursday... Tuesday and Wednesday PM/Thursday AM will bring out best chances for (light) precip all week. model consensus us building that a frontal boundary will push through Iowa from west to east on Tuesday morning. Actually a well-defined band of frontogenetical forcing from 925mb through 700mb. This forcing does seem to be phased with a pocket of moisture from around 900mb to 800mb... leading to 5kft cloud thicknesses. Dry air above and below will be major hindrances to actual light to moderate rainfall. Last week, a somewhat similar setup produced sprinkles to light rain, so have added sprinkle wording... with a strong possibilitiy of precip being upgraded to slight chance overnight or tomorrow afternoon. Strong subsidence behind this boundary, so skies should clear into Wednesday morning. Long-range models showing decent agreement with racing a shortwave across Canada Wednesday, and dropping an attendant boundary through Iowa Wednesday into Thursday. Forecast soundings show slightly better saturation and support aloft on this second round. Frontogenetical forcing is also easily discernible, so think going precip chances are warranted...and could be raised in subsequent updates to better resemble a high POP/low QPF depiction. Beyond Thursday... The past several runs of the GFS and ECMWF have suggested the thermal ridge to slowly build again over the intermountain west... pointing towards above normal temperatures continuing into next weekend, and possibly another day of near- record to record high temperatures at some point towards next weekend. && .AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon/ Issued at 1125 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2017 VFR conditions forecast throughout TAF period. Winds above 10 kts primarily at KMCW, KALO, and KOTM, will diminish after sunset tonight. Slight chance for freezing fog tomorrow morning at KMCW and KALO, however, confidence not high enough to warrant mention at this time. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kotenberg LONG TERM...Kotenberg AVIATION...Kotenberg  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KREV 231130 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 330 AM PST Thu Nov 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Very mild conditions will prevail through Saturday with a few record highs threatened. Most areas will remain dry although very light rain is possible Thursday in northeast California and far northwest Nevada. Saturday is expected to be very windy ahead of a strong cold front which will bring snow to the Sierra and northeast California Sunday and Sunday night. Expect travel delays transiting the Sierra due to slick driving conditions and higher post holiday traffic volume. It will be much colder early next week. && .SHORT TERM... The forecast remains on track with very few model differences from previous runs. Currently, some light rain is falling over northern Lassen County through northern Washoe County as a weak boundary remains draped in that vicinity. This boundary is projected to shift southward through the morning hours bringing a hundredth or two of rain as far south as the Tahoe Basin by late morning. Otherwise, precipitation washes out as the boundary loses support. Additionally, cloud cover associated with the boundary will limit fog formation in Sierra Valley and around Truckee this morning. Still, some pockets of freezing fog will be possible where cloud cover remains minimal in Sierra valleys. After a relatively benign Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday, winds begin to increase Saturday as a potent Pacific storm moves towards the region. Upper level jet wind projections show a larger area of 100+ knots with a maximum around 150 knots superimposed over the Sierra. This will translate to strong gusty surface winds for the region, especially for downslope areas along and west of Highway 395. The current wind forecast continues to have strong gusts to 60 mph along the Sierra Front with ridge winds topping 100 mph. Expect some travel restrictions for high profile vehicles especially through wind prone locations like Highway 395 in Washoe Valley and from Doyle to Susanville. A High Wind Watch remains in effect for much of the region. Winds will drop, especially for Sierra valleys, as precipitation moves into the region Saturday night. However, shadowed locations like the Sierra Front will likely see gusty conditions continuing through the night into Sunday. Boyd .LONG TERM...Sunday through Tuesday... The focus remains on the strong cold front to move through Sunday night and potential late holiday weekend travel impacts as a result. It still looks windy for Sunday as more moisture moves into the region. How strong the winds are Sunday is up for debate. A faster solution like the GFS has more moisture into the Sierra and therefore dampening the mountain wave a bit. This would result in breezy winds, but nothing excessive and lighter than Saturday evening, at least north of highway 50. Slower like the EC keeps high winds into Sunday afternoon. Despite the timing differences, the overall impact for snowfall in the Sierra looks the same. Snow levels will start 8-9000 feet, then gradually fall about 1-2000 feet into Sunday evening before crashing with the cold front. Most of the moisture remains ahead of the front, which will keep the heaviest accumulations above about 7000 feet or so. Still, several inches of snow over the major Sierra passes of Donner and Echo is likely. Lighter amounts down to 5000- 5500 feet. Spillover into Western Nevada is not ideal, but there will likely be some at least for the Sierra Front and 395 corridor. Strong SW winds aloft with good speed shear and strong frontal forcing are favorable. However, the instability and moisture is not that deep, only up to 600 mb or so which is unfavorable. Will keep amounts light beyond the east slopes of the Sierra. Behind the front Monday it will be much colder, but nothing abnormal for late November. Winds will also diminish behind the front and showers look to rapidly diminish as well as much warmer temps aloft stabilize the atmosphere. The cooler temps will continue into midweek with temperatures near seasonal averages overall as a low to moderate amplitude ridge moves overhead. It does appear overnight lows may be a little cooler than average while highs are a little above. && .AVIATION... MVFR visibility restrictions have occurred early this morning at TRK. Expect variable fog thickness through the night as mid/high clouds intermittently pass over the terminal. Overall, the depth of fog and duration is not expected to be as thick/long as yesterday, but periods of IFR remain possible through the morning. Cloud cover should thicken by late morning as a weak boundary drops southward along the Sierra. This boundary could produce a hundredth or two of rain for Sierra terminals. Otherwise, ridge winds continue to gust around 50kts creating some light to moderate mechanical turbulence. These winds will continue today through Friday before increasing substantially as a potent Pacific storm nears the region. Strong mountain waves are expected Saturday and Sunday with severe turbulence likely. Surface gusts are forecast to meet and exceed 50 kts at times. Anticipate LLWS as well. Precipitation will begin as rain through Flight Level 14000ft MSL Saturday night. Expect periods of IFR rain and ultimately snow Sunday and Sunday night; periods of MVFR Cigs will be possible for western Nevada terminals. Snow levels will fall gradually through Sunday reaching ridge level. A strong cold front is projected to bring snow levels down to near western Nevada valley floors by Monday morning. Boyd && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon NVZ003-005. High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening NVZ002. CA...High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon CAZ070-071-073. High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening CAZ072. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/reno  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDMX 221126 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 526 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017 ...Updated for 12z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM.../Today through Tonight/ Issued at 346 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017 Bottom Line up Front... A chilly, but hazard-free forecast is in store for Iowa today. The biggest noticeable weather impacts will be from wind chill temperatures in the teens through single digits for most of the morning hours, and the potential for flurries/wintry precip for portions of east-central/northeast Iowa this afternoon and evening. Temperatures... 09z Water vapor image picking up on large ridge building over the intermountain west beginning to reach into southern Canada. Additionally, there is an upper low over the eastern Hudson bay, with the accompanying longwave trough digging into the Ohio Valley region. This large-scale setup will have Iowa socked into northwesterly flow aloft once again today. Closer to home, there is an 1032mb sfc high pushing southeastward into northeastern Kansas. This sfc high should make it into eastern/southeastern Missouri by this afternoon, gradually pushing Iowa into S/SW flow at the sfc. Yesterday, 850mb temps fell to the -4C across the south to -10C range across northern Iowa, which is the range they are close to for this morning. Though 850mb temps will notably rise later today as the WAA/return flow arrives into Iowa as the thermal ridge begins to crash over the state, the arrival will be a little too late to boost temps very much after the noon hour, as temperature values should stay fairly flat, especially across northeastern Iowa, where there will likely be more extensive, thicker cloud cover... Wintry precip... Models are picking up on a PV anomaly/ill-formed shortwave interjected into the mix in ahead leading edge of our thermal ridge. Models are also picking up on a 1015mb or so sfc reflection low propagating E/SE into western MN by 00z Thu. There is generally good clustering with this feature... though worth noting the hi-res models are trending slightly faster with this push. Leading this sfc low is a very well-defined band of 850mb theta-e advection oriented from N-S that makes it all the way down to I-80. This band looks to pass through Iowa from 18z Wed to 00z Thu. Properly captured right behind this band of theta-e advection is a slug of moisture, phased with ascent through the dendritic growth zone. The only mitigating factor keeping this from being a noteworthy precip event is the lack of near-sfc moisture. From around 800mb to the sfc, there is a clear lack of saturation, which will push to evaporate a lot of the precip before it reaches the sfc. Ultimately, cloud thickness will have no problem supporting sufficient droplet growth, but it will be a rough journey upon cloud departure. In terms of precip type, fcst soundings early on clearly suggest flurries. Leaned slightly towards HRRR sounding, though the RAP and general consensus okay enough to use as well. As 00z approaches, WAA will have reached KMCW and the rest of our CWA, suggesting a trend towards sleet/fz rain. However, by 00z Thu, hi-res models showing the best ascent wast of the DMX CWA. Thus, have wintry precip chances ending somewhat abruptly before sensible wintry precip impacts are felt. Did not want this flurry/wintry precip potential to go unmentioned, but hazardous impacts from this should effectively be nil. .LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/ Issued at 346 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017 Fairly warm pattern expected through much of the mid/long range, with main issue being winds Friday into Saturday and again Monday into Tuesday. Broad upper ridge in place across the western US with westerly to northwesterly upper level flow across the region to begin the period. Area of high pressure in control at the surface with waa for Thanksgiving Day. H85 temps around +5C to +9C which should result in highs in the 40s/lower 50s as sfc winds begin to shift around to the south late Thursday. Southerly flow and WAA to increase late Thursday night into Friday ahead of the next cold front expected to drop through the state mid Friday into Friday night associated with an area of low pressure moving through Ontario. May still see a shower clip the far north, but again low confidence the area will see anything more than an increase in clouds with the frontal passage. Bigger issue is the winds behind the front with strong CAA, tightened sfc pressure gradient and higher pressure rises. BUFKIT winds showing 35-40 kts at the top of the mixed layer with a decent period of strong/gusty winds possible in the afternoon/early evening hours. Winds expected to be gusty again Saturday with strong flow throughout the lower levels, with sunny skies and a large area of high pressure building into the central Plains. With mixing could get some of the stronger winds aloft to mix down, however expect winds to begin to diminish toward late afternoon/early evening as the high builds into Iowa and the flow aloft begins to decrease. Western US upper ridge to then shift eastward into the central US during the upcoming holiday weekend. The sfc high will shift off to the south and east as return flow sets up across the state into Monday. An upper trough digs into the intermountain west with southerly to southwesterly flow increasing ahead of it with a strong push of much warmer air into the state for Monday. H85 temps increase to around +15C by late Monday with our warmest southwesterly flow in place. For now have gone slightly above guidance grids with temps into the 50s to around 60. Would not be surprised though if temps ended up substantially warmer with much of the area into the mid 50s to mid 60s or warmer. Will be monitoring in the coming days and adjust temps upward if current solutions still expected. The western US upper trough to eject eastward into Tuesday/Wednesday with the sfc low lifting through IA during the day Tuesday. May see some precip chances on the backside of this system across the far north, otherwise majority of precip associated with this system to remain to the north/west of the state. Strong cold front to drop through late Tuesday which will send temps plummeting with highs by Wednesday only in the mid 30s to mid 40s again. && .AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning/ Issued at 524 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017 High confidence in VFR conditions throughout entire TAF period. Largest concern will be chance of flurries/light wintry mix to impact KMCW and KALO... with KFOD and KOTM likely just missing out. Am not expecting sensible impacts to aviation activities, as flurries should be light and not accumulate on surfaces, for the short duration they may occur. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kotenberg LONG TERM...Beerends AVIATION...Kotenberg  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDMX 220946 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 346 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SHORT TERM.../Today through Tonight/ Issued at 346 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017 Bottom Line up Front... A chilly, but hazard-free forecast is in store for Iowa today. The biggest noticeable weather impacts will be from wind chill temperatures in the teens through single digits for most of the morning hours, and the potential for flurries/wintry precip for portions of east-central/northeast Iowa this afternoon and evening. Temperatures... 09z Water vapor image picking up on large ridge building over the intermountain west beginning to reach into southern Canada. Additionally, there is an upper low over the eastern Hudson bay, with the accompanying longwave trough digging into the Ohio Valley region. This large-scale setup will have Iowa socked into northwesterly flow aloft once again today. Closer to home, there is an 1032mb sfc high pushing southeastward into northeastern Kansas. This sfc high should make it into eastern/southeastern Missouri by this afternoon, gradually pushing Iowa into S/SW flow at the sfc. Yesterday, 850mb temps fell to the -4C across the south to -10C range across northern Iowa, which is the range they are close to for this morning. Though 850mb temps will notably rise later today as the WAA/return flow arrives into Iowa as the thermal ridge begins to crash over the state, the arrival will be a little too late to boost temps very much after the noon hour, as temperature values should stay fairly flat, especially across northeastern Iowa, where there will likely be more extensive, thicker cloud cover... Wintry precip... Models are picking up on a PV anomaly/ill-formed shortwave interjected into the mix in ahead leading edge of our thermal ridge. Models are also picking up on a 1015mb or so sfc reflection low propagating E/SE into western MN by 00z Thu. There is generally good clustering with this feature... though worth noting the hi-res models are trending slightly faster with this push. Leading this sfc low is a very well-defined band of 850mb theta-e advection oriented from N-S that makes it all the way down to I-80. This band looks to pass through Iowa from 18z Wed to 00z Thu. Properly captured right behind this band of theta-e advection is a slug of moisture, phased with ascent through the dendritic growth zone. The only mitigating factor keeping this from being a noteworthy precip event is the lack of near-sfc moisture. From around 800mb to the sfc, there is a clear lack of saturation, which will push to evaporate a lot of the precip before it reaches the sfc. Ultimately, cloud thickness will have no problem supporting sufficient droplet growth, but it will be a rough journey upon cloud departure. In terms of precip type, fcst soundings early on clearly suggest flurries. Leaned slightly towards HRRR sounding, though the RAP and general consensus okay enough to use as well. As 00z approaches, WAA will have reached KMCW and the rest of our CWA, suggesting a trend towards sleet/fz rain. However, by 00z Thu, hi-res models showing the best ascent wast of the DMX CWA. Thus, have wintry precip chances ending somewhat abruptly before sensible wintry precip impacts are felt. Did not want this flurry/wintry precip potential to go unmentioned, but hazardous impacts from this should effectively be nil. .LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/ Issued at 346 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017 Fairly warm pattern expected through much of the mid/long range, with main issue being winds Friday into Saturday and again Monday into Tuesday. Broad upper ridge in place across the western US with westerly to northwesterly upper level flow across the region to begin the period. Area of high pressure in control at the surface with waa for Thanksgiving Day. H85 temps around +5C to +9C which should result in highs in the 40s/lower 50s as sfc winds begin to shift around to the south late Thursday. Southerly flow and WAA to increase late Thursday night into Friday ahead of the next cold front expected to drop through the state mid Friday into Friday night associated with an area of low pressure moving through Ontario. May still see a shower clip the far north, but again low confidence the area will see anything more than an increase in clouds with the frontal passage. Bigger issue is the winds behind the front with strong CAA, tightened sfc pressure gradient and higher pressure rises. BUFKIT winds showing 35-40 kts at the top of the mixed layer with a decent period of strong/gusty winds possible in the afternoon/early evening hours. Winds expected to be gusty again Saturday with strong flow throughout the lower levels, with sunny skies and a large area of high pressure building into the central Plains. With mixing could get some of the stronger winds aloft to mix down, however expect winds to begin to diminish toward late afternoon/early evening as the high builds into Iowa and the flow aloft begins to decrease. Western US upper ridge to then shift eastward into the central US during the upcoming holiday weekend. The sfc high will shift off to the south and east as return flow sets up across the state into Monday. An upper trough digs into the intermountain west with southerly to southwesterly flow increasing ahead of it with a strong push of much warmer air into the state for Monday. H85 temps increase to around +15C by late Monday with our warmest southwesterly flow in place. For now have gone slightly above guidance grids with temps into the 50s to around 60. Would not be surprised though if temps ended up substantially warmer with much of the area into the mid 50s to mid 60s or warmer. Will be monitoring in the coming days and adjust temps upward if current solutions still expected. The western US upper trough to eject eastward into Tuesday/Wednesday with the sfc low lifting through IA during the day Tuesday. May see some precip chances on the backside of this system across the far north, otherwise majority of precip associated with this system to remain to the north/west of the state. Strong cold front to drop through late Tuesday which will send temps plummeting with highs by Wednesday only in the mid 30s to mid 40s again. && .AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night/ Issued at 1052 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017 Winds continue to decrease this evening and will continue to do so as high pressure settles into the area toward sunrise as skies remain mainly clear. As the high moves off to the east, winds will become from the southwest Wednesday morning. Clouds will pass over the terminals later tomorrow morning through Wednesday evening, but will be VFR with bases well above any ceiling restrictions. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kotenberg LONG TERM...Beerends AVIATION...Ansorge  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KSTO 152325 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 325 PM PST Wed Nov 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Pacific storm brings rain, wind and mountain snow, heavy at times, through Thursday night. Dry Friday and Saturday, then wet weather returns Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Snow level radars indicate the snow level varies from 4500 ft at Shasta Dam, sloping upward to around 8000 ft at Oroville, to over 9000 ft at Colfax along I-80. Snow levels expected to be near or above the Sierra passes through most of the night before falling below the passes by Thu morning. Up north, the situation will be different as cooler air is trapped in the mountain valleys and synoptic cooling will occur later tonite. Have adjusted the snow level grids in zone 68 to account for the more stable snow levels. Break in the precip has occurred in the SWrn portion of the CWA early this afternoon, but a heavier band of precip forecast to develop near or along/N of I-80 this evening and then sag Swd early Thu morning. Model QPF and REFs progs have generally been forecasting these heavier bands of rain to develop this evening and into Thu morning. Energy from the deepening VCRISL upper low is forecast to merge with the subtropical TPW plume (moderate intensity AR) tonight resulting in the heavier band of precip developing. The NAM 3km 12 return intervals indicated some 5-75 year return intervals along the I-80 corridor late tonight and into Thu morning. (The higher returns are shown in the lower foothills.) This could be a rather slow moving band of precip due to SW flow aloft paralleling the lower level heavier rain band. Storm total QPF is around 1 to 2+ inches for the Central Valley, and up to 7+ inches for the foothills and mountains. Several (2-4') feet of snow is possible at the highest elevations by Friday morning. The amount of runoff from the high snow levels raises concerns about the possibility of some areas of ponding of water on roadways, and minor rock/debris flows over recent burn scars, foothill and higher elevations. Have issued a FLS to cover this possible scenario. Periods of heavy precip and gusty wind forecast to continue Thu along and ahead of the front as it moves across the far Srn portion of the CWA. Post frontal showers will be possible with a threat of isolated afternoon thunderstorms in the Central Valley, from about Sacramento northward, and along the eastern foothills. Precip in the Sierra winds down Thursday evening with lingering showers possible into early Friday morning. Rapid clearing behind the frontal band Thursday night could lead to some dense Valley fog by Fri morning. However, short-wave ridging on Sat should lead to a better opportunity for areas of dense radiation fog in the morning. Widespread min temps in the 30s in the Valley Sat morning may result in some patchy frost as well, especially in outlying areas. JHM && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday) Models are coming into better agreement with the next weather system, currently on track for a late Sunday / Monday arrival. Substantial differences in storm strength and timing are still present, with the 12z ECMWF now a fair bit stronger than the GFS. Regardless, with improving confidence in at least some precipitation across the region, we've trended upward the forecast chances of precipitation. Confidence in the forecast rapidly degrades after that system. The GFS has a weak system right on the heels of the Monday system, whereas the ECMWF holds it off until mid-to-late next week. Without an inkling toward any specific model, our forecast relies heavily on the NBM (National Blend of Models). Dang && .AVIATION... Storm system will continue to bring widespread rain through tonight, with showers on Thursday. Periods of MVFR / local IFR conditions in the Valley will continue, with IFR/LIFR continuing over the mountains. South winds will increase to 5-15 kt this evening and tonight. Higher gusts over the high Sierra. Dang && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until midnight PST Thursday night for Western Plumas County/Lassen Park and until 4 am PST Friday the West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KSTO 151741 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 940 AM PST Wed Nov 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Pacific storm brings rain, wind and mountain snow, heavy at times, today into Thursday night. Dry Friday and Saturday, then wet weather returns Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Snow level radars indicated the snow level initially around 5500- 6000 ft at the onset of the precip early this morning, likely from wet bulb cooling due to evaporative cooling. Once the air mass moistened after a couple of hrs, the snow level jumped up around 800 ft. So today through most of tonite, the snow levels should be near or just above Sierra pass levels, and then fall below the passes by Thu morning. Heavier band of precip forecast to develop near or along/N of I-80 this evening and then sag Swd early Thu morning. NAM 3km 12 return intervals indicated some 5-75 year return intervals along the I-80 corridor late tonight and into Thu morning. (Higher returns in the lower foothills.) This could be a rather slow moving band due to SW flow paralleling the heavier rain band. This certainly raises some concerns about the possibility of some areas of ponding of water on roadways, and minor rock/debris flows over recent burn scars, foothill and higher elevations. Will be contemplating the issuance of a FLS later in the shift for this possible scenario. JHM Cold low off VCRISL with associated baroclinic zone and upper troughing digging slowly along the West Coast. Meanwhile moisture plume to the south with embedded PW core around 1.5 inches and weak subtropical wave are approaching CA. Mosaic 88D showing some light rain falling over portions of the Bay Area attm and beginning to spread into the Central Valley. Precip will increase over the CWA during the morning hours as AMS moistens. Moderate to strong mid level southwesterly flow is already occurring, and combined with deepening moisture will also initiate precip over the Sierra Nevada and Western Plumas mountains during the morning hours. Precip then increases this afternoon as PWS continue to trend up and deepening surface wave approaches the NW CA coast. Snow levels will rise above pass levels by this afternoon into evening as WAA increases over Interior NorCal. Surface low weakens and moves across far NW CA this evening. Baroclinic zone with colder system to the north then begins to invade Interior NorCal as associated polar jet merges with subtropical jet. Models showing precip ramping up tonight, especially over the Sierra and Western Plumas mountains with periods of heavy precip likely. Snow levels will rise above 8000 feet overnight resulting in heavy rain for most mountain areas. Will need to monitor rain rates over burn scar areas for potential debris flows. Periods of heavy precip and gusty wind continue Thursday along and ahead of the front as it drops south through the CWA. Post frontal showers will be possible with a threat of isolated afternoon thunderstorms in the Central Valley, from about Sacramento northward, and along the eastern foothills. Precip in the Sierra winds down Thursday evening with lingering showers possible into early Friday morning. Storm total QPF attm showing around 1 to 2+ inches for the Central Valley, and 1 to 7 inches for the foothills and mountains. Several feet of snow possible at the highest elevations by Friday morning. Drier weather on tap Friday into Saturday as upper ridging builds over Interior NorCal. Some patchy valley fog possible Friday morning becoming more widespread and locally dense Saturday morning. PCH && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday) Models are coming into better agreement regarding the potential for another storm system late Sunday into early next week. However, there are still model differences in terms of timing and precipitation amounts, especially with the GFS showing lower precipitation amounts and the storm pushing eastward fairly quick. Therefore, confidence in terms of storm impacts remains low. Similarly to previous days, storm arrival has slowed down so have adjusted PoPs accordingly. After brief drying Monday afternoon into early Tuesday, the pattern could remain active as guidance indicates another system approaching the area by mid-week. At this point, the ECMWF is the fastest and most aggressive solution compared to the GFS, which is slower and keeps the area generally dry. For now, have followed the ECMWF approach but things will still need to be monitored this far out. && .AVIATION... The next storm system arrives today, with periods of MVFR / local IFR conditions in the Valley. IFR/LIFR conditions likely over the mountains. South winds will increase to 10-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt across the Valley. Higher gusts over the high Sierra. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to midnight PST Thursday night for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KOUN 130924 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 324 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017 .DISCUSSION... No significant changes were made to the forecast. Just a few minor adjustments based on trends in model guidance. Primary forecast challenge continues to be periods of light precipitation, likely in the form of drizzle. Overall, generally low-impact weather expected over the next several days. Tuesday, Thursday, and Friday are expected to be the warmest days with portions of the area reaching or exceeding 70 degrees. Otherwise near or just below normal temperatures are expected. A couple breezy/windy periods will occur, with the windiest day being Friday as a strong cold front begins moving through. This raises concern for fire weather (see fire weather section below). Low level flow will continues to veer/become southerly this morning, and will bring significant boundary layer moisture back northward today. Drizzle should increase in a band from western north Texas into portions of western and central Oklahoma where low level flow is most confluent. Forecast soundings show a cool/stable enough boundary layer and sufficient cloud depth for drizzle even into the afternoon. Oklahoma City area is just east of best low level confluence and forecast soundings show a little deeper mixing, albeit still shallow. Drizzle seems more likely within a band just west of the metro, but given respectable low level saturation seen in forecast soundings for OKC, included "slight chance of drizzle or sprinkles". One caveat to the above is if models are too cool/stable with boundary layer and/or moisture is a little slower to return. Mixed layer may grow more than expected lessening cloud thickness and increasing sub cloud evaporation. In this scenario, less drizzle would occur. We'll watch trends and may have to trend drizzle back some. There is a good signal for drizzle late this evening and especially tonight over much of the area as low level saturation deepens and boundary layer stabilizes. Forecast soundings even show a very shallow layer of instability below capping EML to perhaps support some very shallow convective showers, so we included isolated/scattered showers along with areas of moderate drizzle. We also increased probabilities of measurable precipitations. Several areas, particularly central and north- central Oklahoma could see measurable precipitation, probably not exceeding a few hundreds of an inch. Some drizzle may linger into Tuesday morning, but in general drier conditions are expected as low level flow veers slightly in response to transient wave to our north. This wave will send a cold front into the area Wednesday. Near and south of the front, low level thermal/moisture profiles in model forecast soundings look quite familiar. More drizzle is possible. Some lifting of persistent warm and dry/EML layer does occur as weak ascent on the southern end of this wave passes, but it doesn't look like it will be enough for deeper convection/thunderstorms. So we removed mention of thunder. Some shallow convective showers below the cap, within a larger area of drizzle, seems to be the most likely scenario at this point, and that will last into early Thursday across eastern portions of the area. Our attention then shifts westward to a stronger trough that will move through and force a stronger cold front through the area. Preceding southwesterly wind will transport well mixed/downsloped warm plume eastward and support much above normal temperatures Friday across at least a portion of the area right ahead of the cold front. The timing of the cold front is about 9 hours out of phase between GFS and ECMWF. The Canadian is closer to the ECMWF now. We have increased temperatures Friday based on trends. Winds could be quite strong ahead and just behind the front. BRB && .FIRE WEATHER... Southerly winds up to 20 mph with gusts over 30 are possible across western Oklahoma and western north Texas Tuesday afternoon. Surface moisture should be high enough to limit fire significant concerns, however. Concern for elevated to potentially critical fire weather conditions for Friday is growing. Models still are in disagreement on frontal timing, but a preceding Pacific front/synoptically active dryline composite is expected to move through early in the day, followed by deep mixing into belt of strong mid-level flow. The placement/timing of ECMWF is particularly concerning as low- level thermal ridge intersects with mid-level wind max across western Oklahoma. Fuel dryness isn't anomalous for the time of year per latest ERC-G observation. BRB && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 55 55 67 57 / 10 40 20 10 Hobart OK 55 54 70 55 / 20 20 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 61 59 74 58 / 20 20 10 0 Gage OK 61 51 74 48 / 20 10 10 0 Ponca City OK 54 54 64 54 / 20 40 20 20 Durant OK 64 56 69 58 / 10 20 20 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 11/12  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KHNX 120313 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA 713 PM PST Sat Nov 11 2017 .SYNOPSIS...Expect dry and mild conditions under the influence of weak high pressure through the weekend. A weak cold front will bring a chance of some light precipitation mainly north of Fresno County on Monday. Another cold front moves into the region Wednesday night. A chance of light precipitation is expected north of Kern County, then dry and warming again for the remainder of the week. && .DISCUSSION...Quick update for low clouds developing across the Tehachapi Mountains this evening. These clouds will likely linger through the morning so have added patchy fog to the grids. The GOES IFR Probability is also highlighting an area near the Grapevine, though surface conditions area quite a bit drier across the south SJV this evening especially south of Bakersfield. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 241 PM PST Sat Nov 11 2017/ DISCUSSION... Sunrise surprise this morning with widespread dense fog development along the east side of the SJV. NW flow along the west side with 5 to 10 kts was enough to mix out the fog. Temps cooled off enough this morning to allow the airmass to become saturated in the SJV early this morning. We are looking at a similar situation tonight, however confidence is low on where and how dense the fog will be. Pirep reports from FAT indicated the fog was around 500 feet thick and burned off by 10 am pst. Guidance is trying to bring a cold front into the region...mainly north of Fresno on Monday. The models are weaker each run with the front. QPF amounts look to be light as the best dynamics will remain well north of the forecast area. Moisture will also be limited as the front is originating from the Gulf of Alaska. Snow levels across Yosemite National Park will be around 7500 feet and rise to around 8000 feet Monday night as the front becomes stationary across central CA. Clouds clear out on Tuesday with seasonal temperatures. Fog development will once again be an issue, however confidence is very low to put it in the forecast at this time. Guidance is forecasting another cold front to move into the region late on Wednesday afternoon and push into Kern Co by Wednesday night before falling apart. Moisture is once again limited due to the Northern origin of the front. Best dynamics again remain well north of the area with no real cold air advection expected behind the boundary. Confidence remains at medium for the the front on Wednesday and if it ends up like the previous fronts...it too will fizzle out. Quiet weather is expected Thursday through Saturday with near normal temperatures and dry conditions. && .AVIATION... Areas of IFR and local LIFR visibility due to morning fog the San Joaquin Valley 12z-18z and across the Tehachapi Mountains overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevailing across the the remainder of central CA interior during the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is low. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is low. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information an/or to provide feedback. && .HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ weather.gov/hanford  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KOKX 080539 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1239 AM EST Wed Nov 8 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak wave of low pressure moves well south and east of Long Island through overnight. High pressure to the north gradually builds in Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure over the area on Thursday gives way to an approaching arctic cold front, which will pass through the area late Thursday night. High pressure then returns for the weekend before giving way to another frontal system late Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Pcpn continues to erode across the area, and have adjusted PoPs slightly over the next few hours to continue the faster ending trend per latest hi res guidance and radar imagery. Rest of forecast is on track. Northern portions of interior S CT zones could see a mix of rain and snow or even just plain light snow before precip ends with no accumulation expected as moisture exits and colder/drier air wraps in behind the departing system. Minimum temperatures will range from the upper 30s to lower 40s for NYC Metro Area and coastal regions to the lower 30s for locations far N/W of NYC. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... In the upper levels, there is a split jet structure. Polar jet moves into North Central U.S. Wednesday and into Great Lakes Wednesday night and subtropical jet will be moving eastward from Southeast into mid-Atlantic Wednesday through Wednesday night. Dry weather will prevail for Wednesday and Wednesday night. The surface low pressure area well southeast of the 40N/70W benchmark will move east farther out into the Atlantic. Have the clouds decreasing during the late morning and into the early afternoon now with high pressure gradually building in from the north. Have now gone with more clearing for Wednesday night with the high continuing to build in. The downward trend with winds will continue as well, making for more radiational cooling Wednesday night. Maximum temperatures Wednesday will be limited due to cold air advection from the backing of winds from low to mid levels. The NE flow will keep maximum temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. A blend of 1/3 NAM12 and 2/3 ECS guidance was used. For Wednesday night, a blend of 1/2 ECS and 1/2 MET guidance was used that conveys a range of lows from mid and upper 20s for rural interior locations to low 40s in NYC. For Wednesday night there is forecast areas of frost and patchy frost across much of the region. Coastal CT and Suffolk County NY have patchy frost but there is potential this could expand in coverage in subsequent forecasts. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ***Record Cold Friday Night*** A digging upper trough across eastern Canada and into the northeast quarter of the nation will send an arctic cold front through the area late Thursday night. There is a good likelihood of record cold Friday night with daytime highs Friday struggling to get out of the 30s most locations. Readings will be be 15 to 20 degrees below normal. Thereafter, the upper flow flattens with a more zonal flow to follow. This will allow for a gradual moderation of temperatures through early next week with a return to more seasonable temperatures. High pressure will prevail through the first half of the weekend and then retreats offshore Sunday ahead of a fast moving frontal system over the Midwest and Great Lakes. There are some timing and magnitude issues amongst the global models with this system with the GFS on the faster side of the envelope. Preference at this time was to go with model consensus forecast with the frontal system approaching the area Sunday night and then slowly passing to the east on Monday. There is a chance of showers from Sunday afternoon into Monday. Rainfall amounts appear to be light at this time. The 12Z ECMWF places more emphasis on the southern branch energy, with a slower progression of the system and higher rainfall amounts (up to half an inch). Model trends will be watched, but the nature of flow is more progressive and less amplified. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low pressure tracks well to the southeast of Long Island tonight. Weak high pressure builds in from the west on Wednesday. MVFR probable at all TAF sites overnight, with a period of IFR possible at the start at KEWR. Conditions should improve to VFR by 12z at all but KISP, where MVFR conditions could linger into the afternoon. Winds N-NNE mainly around 10KT this morning. Winds diminish and back slightly to more N-NNW by late afternoon. Winds become light and variable tonight at all terminals except KJFK/KLGA/KGON. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Late tonight-Thursday night...Most likely VFR, with a low chance of MVFR conditions Thursday afternoon/evening. S-SW winds G15-25KT possible Thursday evening. W-NW winds G20-30KT possible late Thursday night. .Friday-Saturday night...VFR. NW winds G20-30+KT possible Friday and Friday night. .Sunday...MVFR or lower possible. SW winds G15-25KT possible. && .MARINE... Seas running around a ft too high on the ocean, so have made adjustments here overnight. Otherwise, a tight pressure gradient remains on the waters overnight as low pressure tracking well south of Long Island deepens. The low tracks farther into the open Atlantic Wednesday while slightly deepening. Weak high pressure to the north will gradually build in Wednesday into Wednesday night. A gusty N-NE flow continues overnight with SCA wind gusts for all waters. On the ocean, boundary layer winds mixing down could result in a few spots with some brief gales but not enough temporal or spatial coverage to warrant any gale headlines. Otherwise, expect SCA conditions to linger mainly on the ocean for Wednesday, although expect some SCA gusts on Eastern Long Island Sound and Eastern Long Island Bays for Wednesday morning. Conditions lower to below SCA Wednesday night with winds as the pressure gradient decreases with high pressure gaining control but the ocean seas will likely remain elevated in SCA range. So SCA headlines are as follows: All waters for tonight, ocean and Eastern Long Island Sound and Eastern Long Island Bays Wednesday morning, and then just the ocean for the rest of Wednesday and Wednesday night. Conditions should remain below SCA on the waters Thursday as weak high pressure continues to be across the waters. An arctic front will cross the region late Thursday night, with SCA conditions expected on all waters into Friday evening. There is a low potential for gale gusts. Conditions will improve Saturday as high pressure builds into the region with conditions forecast to return to sub SCA. && .HYDROLOGY... QPF is expected to range between 1/3 and 3/4 inch through early Wednesday with no hydrologic impacts expected. Rainfall amounts Sunday night into Monday are forecast to be under a quarter inch. The 12Z ECMWF is more aggressive with a slower frontal wave with the potential for higher rainfall amounts. Model trends will be watched, but the nature of flow is more progressive and less amplified. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... In spite of a northerly flow, an average of guidance plus current anomalies points to the likelihood of minor coastal flooding during Wendesday's late morning to early afternoon high tide cycle as low pressure pulls away to the southeast. Minor coastal flooding is expected along the South Shore Back Bays of Nassau County, Queens and Brooklyn as well as along parts of southern NY Harbor. An advisory has been issued for these locations, and a statement has been issued for southwestern Suffolk county where minor flooding is expected to be isolated and barely met. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ074-075-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ335-338-345. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ330-340. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KTBW 051330 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 830 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017 .FOR THE MORNING UPDATE... Widespread dense fog currently over portions of west central Florida and the nature coast will lift by mid morning. Fog has already begun to lift across Desoto and Hardee counties where the fog depth was rather shallow. With northeast boundary layer flow across the region, last areas to see low clouds/fog lift this morning will likely be over the the nature coast and Polk counties where depth is greatest...where it could be delayed until the late morning hours. Skies will become partly cloudy by this afternoon with continued warm dry conditions across the entire forecast area with temperatures climbing into the lower to mid 80s. && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough- Coastal Levy-Coastal Pasco-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands- Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough- Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Polk-Sumter. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/Oglesby UPPER AIR...63/Jillson DECISION SUPPORT...57/McMichael  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMTR 020457 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 957 PM PDT Wed Nov 1 2017 .SYNOPSIS...Clear to mostly clear skies this evening will give way to cloudy skies Thursday. A large scale weather pattern change is presently underway over the western contiguous United States. The last remnants of high pressure in the mid to upper levels over northern California will continue to break down and weaken tonight and Thursday. Initially, colder air pooling over the Gulf of Alaska will only sluggishly move southward over the eastern Pacific. Being an ill-defined cold front at first, by late week it'll become more solidly formed and arrive in the North Bay late Friday night into early Saturday morning. Even though this front will become better defined it'll still remain a slow moving front with it not clearing south of the Central Coast until late Saturday night. Light to moderate rain and breezy winds shifting to the west and northwest will accompany frontal passage. A break in precipitation is possible Saturday night into Sunday before a somewhat faster moving cold front from the Gulf of Alaska pushes through Sunday night into Monday morning. A colder, off and on wet pattern will continue well into next week. && .DISCUSSION...as of 9:57 PM PDT Wednesday...It's clear to mostly clear this evening with winds generally under 10 mph except a few very localized westerly gusts to 20 mph are reported in the North and East Bay mountains/hills. Patchy low clouds and possibly some fog combined can be seen over the northern coastal waters based on GOES/LIFR prob satellite imagery. 24 hour trends indicate temperatures are mainly neutral to 1 to 3 degrees cooler than this time last evening. The SFO-SAC pressure gradient is approx the same as it was last evening at 1 mb. Clear skies tonight will turn to cloudy skies Thursday as a moist and cooler flow develops. The large scale pattern is presently changing and remains the main focus through late week including next week as well. All things considered the models had at least initially handled this weather change with some consistency, but has since seen much more struggle with details due mostly to the incredibly complex upstream north- south split flow over the central Pacific. Generally speaking the tilt toward a colder, wetter pattern is still on track, the biggest problems have risen on the timing and extent of QPF for late week and this weekend as the models greatly struggle with timing downstream dynamics and thermodynamics of frontal and trough development over the eastern Pacific. This is often the case when there is split flow upstream. Colder air pooling over the Gulf of Alaska will eventually form into a better defined cold front, but it'll be slow moving and shallow sloped as the wind flow above the front nearly parallels it Friday night through Saturday night. Light to moderate rain and breezy winds shifting to the west and northwest will accompany frontal passage. The long lasting long wave ridge over the west continues to dissipate. Deeper and colder long wave troughing will become more prevalent over the west coast and eastern Pacific from late week and well into next week. With a little loss of confidence in the details in present model forecasts it still looks like with at least moderate confidence that a colder, off and on wetter pattern will develop late week and continue well into next week. && .PREV DISCUSSION...as of 01:50 PM PDT Wednesday...The much advertised pattern change is still the main focus through early next week. Afternoon synoptic analysis puts a weak upper level ridge along 40N nosing into the Bay Area. Generally sunny skies prevail this afternoon with lingering clouds along the North Bay Coast. The ridging aloft weakens overnight with lowering 500mb hts and dropping 850mb temps. Latest hi-res models indicate a return of low clouds overnight, but not a typical summertime stratus deck. The cooler temperatures noticed today will continue to trend cooler for Thursday. A more broad scale upper level trough will deepen off the Pac NW Coast Thursday into Friday and eventually drop south this weekend. As a result, warm sector/light precipitation will be possible Thursday afternoon/evening over the North Bay. Moisture and lift increase across the North Bay Friday and Friday night increasing rain chances. Southerly flow will increase ahead of an approaching cold front during the day Friday. Despite increasing rain chances on Friday/Friday night, rain shadowing will be possible across valleys due to the southerly flow. By early Saturday the cold front slowly moves southward toward Monterey/Big Sur shifting the focus of rainfall. In fact, the North Bay could see rain decrease early Saturday while southern areas see an increase. Latest model guidance actually brings a wave/weak low along the frontal boundary on Saturday. The wave/weak low has some decent moisture associated with it (PWATS >1 in) and keeps it mainly focused from the Santa Cruz Mountains southward. A brief break in the action is possible Saturday night into Sunday before another weak frontal boundary pushes south. The second boundary brings additional rainfall Sunday night into Monday. Very little changes from previous precip amounts. Storm total rainfall amounts 1.00" to 1.50" range in the coastal ranges and in the North Bay Mountains/Hills. Meanwhile, amounts of 0.25" to 0.75" are forecast near the coast and in the lower elevations with potentially much lower amounts in the rain shadowed valleys. Given recent fires much attention will be focused over the North Bay. Given latest model guidance and precip estimates debris flow potential appears to be marginal. Will be watching the situation closely. Longer range remains the same with drier conditions returning Monday into Tuesday. Rain chances return the middle of next week as another upper level trough swings through the region. && .AVIATION...As of 4:35 PM PDT Wednesday for 00Z TAFs. Currently VFR with westerly winds. Expecting patchy stratus to push inland tonight bringing MVFR cigs to some sites through the morning. Low to mid level moisture will then move in tomorrow ahead of the approaching system. This will bring SCT to BKN cigs generally around 2000-7000 ft before showers begin to arrive late tomorrow night. Vicinity of KSFO...VFR with westerly winds around 10 to 15 kt before winds decrease tonight. Low confidence on overnight conditions as marine layer tries to push inland and prefrontal moisture begins to advect in at 2-7K AGL. TAF carrying MVFR cigs 10-17Z tomorrow. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR, light winds, clear skies this evening. Some low to mid level moisture advects ashore early tomorrow, with MVFR to VFR cigs that will hang around through the evening. && .MARINE...as of 02:43 PM PDT Wednesday...Light variable winds through midday Thursday. Winds will increase and become south to southwest ahead of an approaching front later later this week, before turning northerly behind the front early this weekend. These winds may produce locally steep fresh swell ahead of the front. Otherwise, generally light northwest seas. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tngt...None. $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: Canepa/MM AVIATION: AS MARINE: DRP Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KGYX 011927 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 327 PM EDT Wed Nov 1 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north through the region tonight and Thursday. A cold front will approach from the west Thursday night and will cross the region on Friday. High pressure will build in from the west Friday night and Saturday. A warm front will approach from the southwest Saturday night and will lift north through the region on Sunday. A cold front will push in from the west on Monday with high pressure following on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TOMORROW/... A weak area of low pressure will intensify and move northeast up the St lawrence river valley overnight. As it does it will push a warm front north through our area. Light rain is already reported to our west in New York and these showers are expected to move into the region. With the relatively dry low levels it will take a bit for the showers to hit the ground. As the showers and southerly flow take hold overnight expect to see thickening clouds. Along the coast low stratus and fog is expected by morning where the flow will be directly off the water. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As the low pressure moves up the St lawrence we'll see showers along the international border through the day on Thursday. A few showers may make it as far south as the southern border of the forecast area but have kept the heaviest amounts north of the notches. Even these amounts will be modest, with about a half inch total across Coos and northern Oxford and Franklin counties. Even with the recent rainfall this will not be enough to cause any sort of flooding concern. As far as temperatures have leaned a bit on the colder side through Maine as the onshore flow should keep most of the coastal plain socked in. Have not included any drizzle at this point but there is some potential for drizzle right along the coast. Meanwhile in southern New Hampshire the southerly flow should be a bit warmer and thus left highs in the upper 60s for this area. The cold front will cross the region on Friday. This will be a more classic font with a brief period of showers and wind shift to northwest. Winds may increase to as much as 20kts behind the front with northwesterly flow setting in behind it. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will remain overhead on Saturday with chilly northerly breezes during the day. Afternoon highs will only reach the 40s in the north and mountains during this cold air advection day with 50s in the south. A warm front will approach from the west Saturday night. However the surface high will allow for cold air damming to continue in a chilly east to northeast flow. There will be scattered showers that will expand northward during the night. By Sunday, a strong southerly flow will allow for ample moisture across the region. Showers will be likely over the elevated terrain in the proximity of the warm front. The showers will linger into Monday as the front approaches Maine and New Hampshire from the west. There may be sufficient slantwise instability above the surface to allow for an isolated rumble of thunder during the day. On Tuesday and Wednesday, high pressure will build in from the west. However, there may still be an outside chance for a brief shower as the flow remains cyclonic aloft. Low pressure will pass well to our south on Wednesday. However there may sufficient moisture for a period of very light rain. Temperatures by Wednesday night may be cool enough to allow a little wet snow to mix in over the mountains and foothills. && .AVIATION /19Z TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term...A warm front will lift north through the region late tonight. High cirrus running ahead of the low will gradually thicken and lower as the front approaches with ceilings becoming MVFR by morning. Have included some LLWS in the CT river valley as the low approaches tonight, due mostly to the calm surface conditions. Through the day on Thursday look for showers in the mountains with MVFR clouds. Along the coast, have generally lowered both ceilings and visibilities below guidance as onshore flow will likely result in IFR ceilings and fog along the immediate coastline including PWM RKD and PSM. Further inland a brief period of IFR near sunrise will come to and end by mid morning. The trailing cold front will cross the region on Friday with a brief period of gusts to 25kts possible right as the front moves through. Long Term...VFR conditions are expected Friday night through Saturday night. IFR/LIFR ceilings developing on Sunday as low level moisture pulls in off the Gulf of Maine. These conditions will continue on Monday. && .MARINE... Short Term...SCA in place for this evening through tomorrow in southeasterly flow in the warm sector. Water temperatures remain in the mid 50s, nearly identical to the air temperatures and should mean the lower levels are neutral in terms of stability allowing the winds to mix down. There will be a brief lull in winds before we see SCA conditions once again pick up late Friday under CAA on the backside of the front. Long Term...SCA threshold expected to be exceeded on Monday in a southerly gradient as a cold front approaches from the west. && .HYDROLOGY...The Suncook River at North Chichester, NH continues to slowly fall late this afternoon. Have updated the FLS to reflect recent stage values. May be able to discontinue this warning by early this evening. Additional QPF over the next two days will not be sufficient to cause any renewed flooding. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Thursday night for ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Curtis SHORT TERM...Curtis LONG TERM...Cannon  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDMX 300842 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 342 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 .SHORT TERM.../Today through Tonight/ Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Bottom Line up Front... Strong and gusty winds return to Iowa today, lasting into the evening hours. Temperatures this evening will be in the 30s across the state...when combined with winds in the 15 to 25...will produce wind chills below freezing across most of Iowa, including Des Moines. If you and/or your family are going to be outside this evening, make sure additional/sufficient layers of clothing are being worn. Today... 08z GOES-R water vapor imagery picking up on an upper low spinning over the Minnesota/Canada border, slowly propagating to the southeast towards Lake Superior. From this imagery, it is somewhat easy to discern an upper level jet oriented from w-e ranging from Iowa, across Nebraska, and into Wyoming. Models are picking up on a strong PV anomaly/lobe with this jet. Aided with mid to upper-level q-vector convergence, mid to upper level clouds have been present across much of central to southern Iowa through this morning, helping to keep radiative cooling to a minimum. This lobe/band PV anomaly should continue to follow the jet as it traverses into northern Missouri and Illinois throughout the day today...taking along the high-mid level clouds with it. In the low-levels, closer to 850mb, wrap-around moisture from our upper low looks to make it into northern Iowa by mid morning, spreading into southern Iowa by around noon. Accompanying this moisture will be strong CAA and strong winds. 850mb temps fall from the -2C to -5C range near sunrise, to the -6C to -9C range by sunset. Factoring the cloud cover, temperatures will only warm a few degrees, if that, during the daytime hours. RAP/HRRR BUFKIT soundings show cloud thickness to be not much more than 1-1.5KM, which may be the only saving grace from temperatures actually falling throughout the daytime... if this were December, with the subsequent reduction of insolation, temperatures would absolutely be falling today. BUFKIT soundings also pick up a somewhat decently well mixed layer of around 30 to 35 kts, with 35 to 45kts atop, depending upon location. Thus have upped winds vs guidance... but kept at levels below Wind Advisory criteria. Worth noting that forecast soundings showing mixing to continue into the 10 pm hour, meaning that winds will not decouple with sunset and that this evening will remain gusty. As mentioned earlier, this will rapidly drop wind chills into the 20s and low 30s after sunset. .LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/ Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2017 Confidence is increasing for the medium range with model solutions showing good agreement through mid-week with some divergence toward the end of the week into next weekend. Large broad upper troughing in place across the central US, with dry and chilly conditions expected for Tuesday. Another shortwave trough drops down into the region late Tuesday into Wednesday with increasing cloudiness expected Tuesday night and WAA setting up in advance of a developing area of surface low pressure moving through the Dakotas. May see some light snow/transitioning to rain across the far north Wednesday/Wednesday night with this system as the upper trough moves through ND/MN during the period. The associated cold front drops through Wednesday night with dry conditions expected into Thursday as a zonal flow pattern sets up aloft. The zonal flow pattern starts to transition to more of a southwest flow pattern toward latter portion of the weekend as a trough digs into the Pacific Northwest. This will set up a more active pattern across the region toward Sunday into early next week. An area of low pressure will develop in lee of the Rockies by late Saturday night, with the sfc low lifting ENE through the northern/central Plains into Sunday. This will set up a large area of WAA and moisture advection across the state with precipitation potential through the weekend into early next week. The state to be in the warm sector Sunday night into Monday, and have added in some thunder mention with the pops at this time. As for temperatures through the period, chilly conditions continue this week, with a push toward the seasonal averages Thursday and again Saturday. Sunday should be the warmest day with highs moving back above average into the 50s/60s, before the cold front moves through sending temps back to near or below average for Monday. && .AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night/ Issued at 1108 PM CDT Sun Oct 29 2017 VFR conditions returning to northern sites in the wake of the first frontal passage. Mid to high level clouds and increasing winds aft 15z will accompany the passage of the second front. Cigs still look to lower to possible MVFR conditions for KMCW/KALO and briefly at KFOD between 16-23z. Northwest winds increase to 20 to 30kts aft 15z through 00z as well. Northwest flow expected through remainder of period above 12kts most sites...though should relax toward 12z Tues 10/31 as ridge builds east./rev && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kotenberg LONG TERM...Beerends AVIATION...REV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDMX 270844 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 344 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 .SHORT TERM.../Today through Tonight/ Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Bottom Line up Front... Today will be another day of strong winds across Iowa, with sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts of 30 to 40 mph for most of the area. Additionally, 1 to 2 inches of snow is likely across northern Iowa, potentially leading to travel difficulties when combined with the strong winds. Temperatures will only warm around 3 to 7 degrees after sunrise, at best...making today by far the coldest day of the new season. Today... At 09z Fri, a broad area of low pressure, centered over western Wisconsin has continued to become better-organized. 500mb vorticity continues to show this low taking on more of a classic comma shape. By around 06z to 09z Sat, the low is slated to have propagated towards the U.P. of Michigan, taking along with it the rain/snow mix and stronger winds. 850mb temps remain more or less unchanged throughout the day. Given the cloud cover an precipitation, confidence high in the temperatures only warming up 3 to 7 degrees... with the greatest rises in southern Iowa. Precipitation... Trends for the highest snowfall amounts have slightly shifted eastward, from NR Iowa towards the MN/WI border. Lack of saturation/moisture will be biggest limiting factor in precipitation amounts. Forecast soundings, in particular, KMCW, are in good agreement with cloud thickness around 5000ft, which is enough for light snow. Cross-section from KEST to KLSE shows a pocket of ascent through a nearly-saturated DGZ... challenge is tat it appears this pocket of stronger ascent will be just northeast of the DMX CWA and into SE MN. Ultimately have 1 to 2 inches in the north, with precip exiting the DMX CWA between 06z-09z Sat. Worth noting that with pavement temperatures likely bear to above freezing during much of this event, will be difficult for snow to accumulate on roadways... much of the snow accumulation may be confined to grassy surfaces. Winds... Confidence high in yet another windy day across Iowa. Pressure gradient on the backside of the low generally continues around 3mb/60km within the area of tighter gradient. Forecast soundings show winds on avg around 30kts to 40 kts through the mixed layer. KEST to KMCW looks to be where the strongest winds will likely occur. With Winter Weather Advisory already in play, do not have these locations mentioned in a Wind Advisory... even though KEST especially will quite possibly gust to 45 to 50 mph today. As the low moves away towards tomorrow, winds will "relax" to the 10 to 20 mph range. .LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/ Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Long wave trof will be shifting eastward on Saturday with influence on Iowa waning through the day. With the decrease in cyclonic curvature and low level moisture, clearing should spread from west to east over the remainder of the forecast area by afternoon. The state will be on the backside of the thermal trof with temperatures remaining well below normal as northwest winds persist. Surface ridging will pass through the state on Saturday night with warm advection increasing as the night progresses. There will likely be some non-diurnal temps in western Iowa as south winds begin to strengthen overnight. Thermal ridge will pass across the state on Sunday with southwest winds and temperatures a good 10 to 15 degrees warmer than Saturday, although increasing clouds will keep readings from climbing too much. A front is expected to pass into the state by late in the day with increased kinematic forcing as a shortwave approaches from the northwest. Scattered light rain is expected in the north and northeast, especially by later in the afternoon to early evening with the passage of the boundary. Thereafter, cold advection will persist on Monday into Tuesday as Canadian air drops into the upper Midwest. The thermal trof will build into the state by midday Tuesday with each day seeing successively colder highs. The upper pattern will begin to undergo a significant change after this point through the end of the work week. The large eastern trof will lift northeast with a gradually deepening trof across the western United States. With time, height will increase across the central United States meaning temperatures will warm from Wednesday through the end of next week. The threat of precipitation will be relatively minimal through this time as moisture remains limited. && .AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night/ Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Oct 26 2017 Upper trough of low pressure to move across the state tonight and Friday which will bring MVFR cigs to all TAF locations and some light snow to northern TAF locations. Strong wind will also accompany this feature which will increase some after 15Z especially north. Snow to end by 00Z but MVFR cigs will continue through the TAF period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for IAZ007-016-017- 024>026-033>036-044>047-057-058-070-071-081-082-092-093. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ004>007-015>017. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ023-033-034-044- 045. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kotenberg LONG TERM...Cogil AVIATION...FAB  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KSEW 222153 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 300 PM PDT Sun Oct 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers will end tonight. Flooding will continue on a few rivers, but most are on the way down. Monday will have a few showers in the mountains, and Tuesday will be dry. After some light rain Wednesday, dry weather should return. && .SHORT TERM...Radar shows scattered showers. These have had a few lightning strikes and some gusty winds, but they are waning and should be mostly done by sundown. Skies will clear somewhat overnight and patchy fog will develop. Monday and Tuesday now appear completely dry. Skies will become completely clear Monday night and the resulting fog late at night and Tuesday morning will be more extensive. Most of the fog will evaporate on both days and there will be a slow warming trend. Highs Monday will be 60-65, and they will be a few degrees higher Tuesday. The weak system that will arrive from the northwest on Wednesday has been looking even weaker in recent model runs. The forecast is now for a chance of showers in the lowlands on Wednesday, with showers likely in the mountains. There will be considerably more clouds on Wednesday, so high temperatures will be 55-60. Burke .LONG TERM...After the weak front Wednesday, an upper ridge will build off the coast, then slowly move inland through the weekend. This should give clear skies, dry weather, and highs mostly in the 60s Thursday through Sunday. Burke && .HYDROLOGY...While some showers remain on radar...the threat for heavy rain over the area has ended. Still...the effects of said rain are still being felt on some of the area rivers. Flood warnings remain in place...although the bulk of activity is trending downward. For example...while a flood warning remains in effect for the Skokomish River...current hydrographs indicate that waters have fallen below flood stage. As such...that particular warning will be allowed to expire upon the next FLS issuance. The Skykomish is in a similar situation. The Snoqualmie remains in minor flood stage but continues to trend downward...so that warning looks to remain in place into tonight. The Cowlitz at Randle looks like it has crested just over moderate flood stage and will start a downward trend soon. While the Snohomish remains below flood levels at the time of this writing...it is close and is still trending upward. That flood warning will remain in place...but will merit watching in the evening hours as the current trend does not really seem to fit well with current hydrograph forecast. The flood watch in place for Lewis and Thurston counties remains in place due to a combination of the increased level of the Cowlitz and the continuing presence of showers there. As activity...both flood and showers...dwindles this evening...hard to imagine this watch not being pulled down at some point in the night. All in all...general activity continues a downward trend as the area enters a phase where watches and warnings will slowly expire through the night. SMR && .AVIATION...West flow aloft over Western Washington this afternoon will veer to northwest tonight and continue Monday, an an upper ridge builds offshore and moves slowly toward the Pacific Northwest coast. The air mass will gradually dry, especially at mid and upper levels, with low level onshore flow turning weakly offshore tonight. We still have scattered light showers with BKN035-055 across Western Washington. Isolated, brief thunderstorms are possible for the next couple hours at the coast and over the Olympics. Relatively clear skies and light winds tonight, combined the moist ground, should lead to patchy fog in the more fog-prone valleys late tonight and Monday morning. KSEA...Southwest wind 7-13 kt gusting 20 kt, easing this evening, becoming southeast 4-8 kt tonight, then becoming northerly Monday afternoon. VFR conditions with ceilings lifting above 6000 ft later this evening. McDonnal && .MARINE...Onshore flow this evening will turn weakly offshore late tonight and continue through Tuesday, as a ridge builds over the Pacific Northwest. Westerly swell 10 feet or higher will continue over the coastal waters and at the west entrance Strait of Juan de Fuca through Monday evening. A weak cold front will move southeast across the area on Wednesday, with small craft advisory winds over some marine zones. Northerly offshore flow will follow the front Thursday and Friday as a ridge builds over southern British Columbia. McDonnal && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Flood Watch through Monday morning for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Southwest Interior. PZ...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 11 PM PDT Monday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. Small Craft Advisory for rough bar until 11 PM PDT Monday for Grays Harbor Bar. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 5 PM PDT Monday for West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$ www.weather.gov/seattle You can see an illustrated version of this discussion at www.wrh.noaa.gov/sew/gafd/latest_webafd.html  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KPAH 121907 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 207 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 Main forecast challenges will be the departure of the opaque cloud cover from the WFO PAH forecast area and the timing of the precipitation associated with the approach of the next cold front into the area late Saturday night (early Sunday morning). Isentropic lift and forcing remain marginal across the area, especially east of the surface ridge axis which extends from the Mississippi River northeast into Southwest Indiana. Even at 1 pm CDT, cloud thickness over parts of southern IL and parts of Southwest Indiana remain in excess of 1500 ft. Warm air advection tonight and Friday should continue to erode the cloud layer from above and below as the ridge axis slowly moves east. Given the weak advection, there may still be some cloudiness, albeit not 100 percent coverage, across the west Kentucky Pennyrile region and southwest Indiana, this evening. Where skies remain clear over southeast Missouri, could see some localized fog development overnight, even with very weak warm advection (most significant at and above the boundary layer). The influence of the ridge axis will likely yield to some diurnal cumulus cloud development early on Friday, before clearing out for the remainder of the day. Utilized the short range ensemble guidance (SREF) to address the timing, coverage, and intensity of rain late Saturday along and ahead of the approaching cold front. Limited instability aloft mitigated any differential mention of thunderstorms through Saturday night. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 The only real weather maker in the long term period will be a frontal passage early Sunday which will bring our only chance for rain. Models have definitely sped up the timing of this front and associated rainfall. At 12Z Sunday, the NAM/GFS show the actual cold front in our far eastern counties with most of the precipitation post frontal. The ECMWF and Canadian indicate the front a bit further west at that time. The speed difference between models of the aforementioned front does not seem to have much affect on the forecast, as the best chances for rain for our area will still come between 12Z-18Z Sunday. Whatever precipitation is left Sunday afternoon, will be across parts of west KY. Not sure how much thunder will be involved as most of the instability will be tied to the front and directly behind the front. Will need to make changes to our going POP forecast however in order account for the more rapid arrival and departure of the precipitation. Will likely have to take rain chances out for Sunday night. Temperatures on Sunday will be tricky depending on how fast the cooler air filters into the area. We may be dealing with a non diurnal trend. Model guidance is suggesting falling temperatures through the morning hours so our high will likely be first thing in the morning. By late Sunday afternoon, a large 1028-1030mb surface high will be situated over Kansas and Oklahoma. This sfc high will start migrating eastward Sunday night and into Monday, really helping to dry things out locally. The center of this sfc high pressure system will be overhead by late Monday night into Tuesday morning. With clear skies and calm winds, Monday night into Tuesday morning should be our coldest, with lows dropping into the lower to mid 40s. High pressure will dominate for the rest of the week, which will aid in keeping any chances for precipitation at bay. Temperatures will remain in the 70s for highs and upper 40s to lower 50s for lows from Tuesday and beyond. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017 The trend of MVFR ceilings is maintained through 00z Friday for KCGI and KPAH and for the KEVV and KOWB TAF locations for the entire forecast period (until 18z Friday). Although not explicitly suggested in the model guidance, diurnal thermal stratification in the boundary layer, in the absence of significant mixing, will develop localized visibility restrictions in the 1-3 nm range for the KCGI and KPAH TAF sites in the 06z-13z Friday time frame. The RAP model guidance appears to have the most reasonable solution for the evolution and departure of the low ceilings as compared to METAR and PIREP observations. The speed and intensity of warm air advection will determine the overall impact and influence of the departing surface ridge axis oriented northeast to southwest across the area. Should the process accelerate more rapid clearing may take place at KCGI and KPAH this evening. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...CW AVIATION...Smith  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDMX 060857 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 357 AM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017 .SHORT TERM.../Today through Tonight/ Issued at 356 AM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017 Main focus will be on several chances of precipitation across the area today into tonight. A few light showers out there currently with another round expected to move into far southern Iowa through the mid morning hours as another push of theta-e advection becomes oriented into southern Iowa in vicinity of the sfc warm front currently stretched across the area. Associated sfc low stretches back to the southwest centered over SW KS currently. The sfc low will lift ENE into SW IA by this evening, and push into eastern IA as the upper trough exits the Rockies and digs into the central US by early Saturday. Precipitation is expected to become more widespread toward mid morning into the afternoon hours as an upper level shortwave trough ejects out ahead of the main upper level trough. This shortwave currently kicking off scattered showers and storms across central and western NE. As the sfc low approaches SW IA expect an area of thunderstorms to develop in vicinity of the sfc low/sfc trough axis and move through much of central/eastern IA by late afternoon/evening. MUCAPE values increase to around 1000 J/kg or higher, with stronger deep layer shear. An isolated strong to possibly severe storm will be possible in the far SW where CAPE values and shear values better. Otherwise precipitation potential the main issue with deep warm cloud depths and pwats pushing 1.5 to 2.0 inches across the southern half of the forecast area. Some areas across the south central to southwest have already had around 1 to nearly 3 inches of rain over the past 12 hours, and could see another widespread 1 to 2 inches through early Saturday morning. However with the efficient rainfall production expected and convective possibility, isolated higher amounts of 2 to 3+ inches will be possible. With lowered FFG values in the far southwest around 1 to 2.5 inches for 1 hr up to 6hr values. Therefore with the combination of several rounds of precip expected, efficient rainfall production, and lowered FFG due to antecedent conditions will issue a flash flood watch for the far southwestern portion of the forecast area through tonight. Def zone precip to wrap up through the forecast area late tonight as the sfc low lifts into NE IA with the back edge of the precip expected to be approaching western IA toward 12Z Saturday. .LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/ Issued at 356 AM CDT Fri Oct 6 2017 Bottom Line Up Front... Uncertainty still reigns supreme in this long term fcst period. Sunday will be the warmest day of the week, with temperatures well into the 70s. Precip chances try to manifest Monday into Tuesday, followed by a cool-down into the middle of this week. This Weekend... 00z Fri ECMWF and GFS solutions remain stubborn in their respective outputs for departing the system described in the short-term out of the CWA. ECMWF still slower and deeper with the sfc low, the GFS is the fastest solution, and the rest of the models fall somewhere in between, though trends are favoring the ECMWF. Thus, have again held wrap-around precip into the afternoon period along and east of I-35. Cross sections picking up on near- sfc drier air punching in to increase sfc dwpt depressions, however, cloud thickness above 900mb around 2km, which is enough to justify keeping light rain mention...with only a few hundredths of QPF at most. Sunshine then returns for Sunday as dry air entrains into Iowa from the southwest. Monday and Beyond... As introduced last night, details become somewhat murky for Monday and beyond... Though Monday and Tuesday coming into slightly better focus. 00z ECMWF and 00z GFS slowly coming into agreement with featuring a longwave trough off a low near the Hudson Bay digging southwestward into the Four Corners region by 12z Mon. By 18z Tue, both models develop a westward-tilting cut- off low somewhere over the Midwest, with its sfc reflection pulling ahead. As was the case with Saturday afternoon, both these long- range operational models remain stubborn in their respective run- to-run solutions... The GFS is holding a more northern solution which would mean more rain for Iowa, whereas the ECMWF is holding a much more southerly solution that may actually leave Iowa out of any precip chances. The GEM more closely echos the ECMWF solution, as does the GFS Ensemble output. So have left precip in the forecast, but have removed 'likely' wording. Should the GFS solution pan out, precip looks mainly to be confined to the morning hours, and PWAT values around 1.5 to 1.75 inches, which when coupled with a decent slug of theta-e advection, 950 to 900mb frontogenetical forcing, and 850mb moisture convergence, would suggest a potential for a moderate amount of rainfall. Beyond Tuesday, the only thing to be confident about is a lack of confidence. Long-range model run-to-run consistency and agreement remain low. On a grander scale, a dominant and robust area of 850- 300mb anticyclonic flow sets up over the Gulf of Mexico. This will keep Iowa in westerly to southwesterly flow at 500mb through the remainder of the week. Models then struggle with trying to propagate a sfc high through the Midwest, where yesterday, there was a shortwave pushing through the Midwest. CAA will follow the Monday/Tuesday system, but then another thermal ridge looks to begin to build towards the end of the week...indicating a potential for warmer temperatures towards next weekend. && .AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night/ Issued at 1131 PM CDT Thu Oct 5 2017 Area of convection over southern Iowa mainly only affecting KOTM at this time. Isentropic lift resulting in some showers north of KDSM moving NE toward KALO/KFOD/KMCW. Showers/lower vsby will remain through 12z with some lowering to MVFR possible IFR vsby between 12-15z. Hires and synoptic models suggest most widespread shower/thunder coverage will arrive aft 19-20z as better lift approaches though most of overnight/Friday MVFR/IFR conditions will continue. From 23z Fri to 06z Sat widespread rain/possible thunder with worst overall period of wx expected. Next update will detail coverage/timing. /rev && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Saturday morning for IAZ070>072-081>083-092>094. && $$ SHORT TERM...Beerends LONG TERM...Kotenberg AVIATION...REV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KSGX 022122 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 222 PM PDT Mon Oct 2 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure over the Western U.S. will keep temperatures below seasonal averages through Tuesday with a deep marine layer remaining in place west of the mountains. Warming will occur over the second half of the week as high pressure builds in, helping temperatures return to 5-10 degrees above average by the weekend. Swell from the south will bring increasing surf to the beaches Thursday, with elevated surf continuing into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... At 200 PM, a broad trough of low pressure over the Western U.S. was bringing dry northwest flow and subsidence to SoCal. A deep marine layer, 2500-3500 ft deep, remained in place with a few marine layer low clouds lingering over coastal areas. Winds were light over the entire region. The deep marine layer will remain in place tonight with some potential for a weak coastal eddy. Cloud thickness looks like it may reach 1000-2000 ft by early Tuesday morning, especially over coastal areas, and this may result in patchy light drizzle. Accumulations area not anticipated. With the top of the marine layer near 4000 ft MSL, low clouds should extend inland to the coastal slopes. This could led to patchy fog for elevations between 2,500 and 4,000 ft MSL. Low clouds will diminish Tuesday morning allowing mostly clear skies to develop Tuesday afternoon. Afternoon highs on Tuesday will be similar to today as a shortwave trough continues to rotate to our north. The shortwave forecast to bring us lower heights, onshore flow and below average temperatures today and Tuesday will shift eastward Wednesday and Thursday, allowing the West Coast to transition to a ridge dominated pattern by the weekend. This will result in another cool day on Tuesday, followed by a warming trend leading into the weekend as 500 mb heights approach 590 dm. Very weak offshore flow is possible Friday-Saturday as a weak surface high builds over the Great Basin. Offshore gradients with this event should be weak and oriented north-south. Thus meaningful wind impacts are not expected, though compressional warming may add 2-5 degrees to temperatures in the Inland Empire. Impacts are not anticipated in SD County. Afternoon high temperatures for all areas will be 5-10 degrees above average Friday through the weekend. With a near 590 dm high pressure ridge overhead, the marine layer will be limited to the immediate coast late in the week. Some patchy fog is possible, especially at the beaches, but it is to low of a probability for placement forecast at this time. && .AVIATION... 022012Z...Coast/Valleys/Coastal Mountain Slopes...Through 03/0000 UTC, P6SM vis and FEW-SCT clouds 2500-4000 ft msl within 20 sm of the coast. 03/0000-1500 UTC, BKN-SCT clouds gradually re-developing in the coast, valleys, and lower coastal slopes, with bases once again highly variable 2000-3500 ft msl, tops around 4000 ft msl and possible mountain obscuration. Mountain Ridges/Desert Mountain Slopes/Deserts...P6SM vis and SKC will continue through Tuesday morning. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine weather is expected through Saturday. && .BEACHES... A long-period south-southwest swell from 195-200 degrees will arrive Thursday and build through the day, then peak Friday at 4 ft/18-19 seconds, then continue at that height Saturday and Sunday with the period very gradually lowering. With the favorable direction of the swell and long period, surf of 4-7 feet with higher sets is likely, along with powerful rip currents. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation will not be needed this week. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Albright AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Harrison  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KSGX 011626 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 926 AM PDT Sun Oct 1 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A trough of low pressure over the inter-mountain west will create a deep marine layer, cooling and gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts through Monday, with night and morning low clouds over the coast, valleys and lower coastal slopes. Expect high temperatures several degrees below seasonal normals. Very gradual warming Tuesday through Thursday as the trough weakens, with night and morning clouds mainly in the coast and portions of the valleys. More significant warming Friday through Saturday as high pressure aloft builds, resulting in temperatures rising above seasonal normals and potential weak offshore flow. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... We have a much deeper marine layer in place this morning, with stratus filling the coastal waters and coastal basin according to visible satellite, while skies were clear elsewhere. Wind observations along the coast indicate a coastal eddy which is likely helping to create the deeper marine layer. Water vapor satellite shows a trough over the inter-mountain west with northwest to west flow aloft over Southern California while a ridge remains over the northeast Pacific ocean. The 12Z Miramar sounding shows a marine layer inversion up to around 2600 ft msl with an inversion strength of 7 deg C. Despite the coastal eddy continuing today, it is a somewhat weak eddy, and given the weak- to-moderate inversion, a cloud thickness layer of only 400-700 ft, and satellite trends showing plenty of breaks in the clouds, am expecting good clearing of clouds this morning except perhaps at the immediate coast. With the deeper marine layer, better onshore flow and deepening trough to the north, today should be decently cooler than yesterday, with highs falling to a few to several degrees below seasonal normals. Due to the coastal eddy continuing and further deepening of the trough, the marine layer should deepen a little more tonight, up to around 3500-4000 ft msl, with stratus clouds filling the coastal basin again and also the lower coastal mountain slopes. With the stronger onshore flow, expect gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts this evening through early Monday morning, with gusts of 30-40 mph and locally up to 50 mph. More cooling will occur Monday (highs 5-10 deg F below normal) as the trough deepens into the Great Basin region, and the marine layer may deepen up to 5000 ft msl. On Tuesday, some weakening of the trough may allow for very slight warming, in addition to a a shallower marine layer Tuesday night, although a coastal eddy may continue. A little more warming expected Wednesday and Thursday as the trough, now over central California and northern Nevada, continues to weaken and a ridge to the southeast nudges into our area. The marine layer will continue to get shallower as well, with night and morning stratus over the coast and western valleys. More significant warming is likely Friday through Saturday as the ridge to the south builds over our region, along with possible weak offshore flow. Highs may rise to a few degrees above normal during this time-period, and up to several degrees above normal in some spots. && .AVIATION... 011602Z...COAST/VALLEYS...Low clouds based around 2000-2500 feet MSL with tops around 3000 feet MSL are expected to clear back to the coastal waters most areas by midday. Tonight stratus will spread inland to the lower coastal slopes with tops up to around 3500-4000 feet MSL. Visibilities locally reduced to 1-3 SM or less in BR/FG where clouds approach higher terrain. The risk of BKN low clouds all day at KSAN is low-moderate, so confidence in the forecast of a period of SCT afternoon clouds in the KSAN TAF is moderate-high. MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...Mostly clear with unrestricted vis through this evening. lower coastal slopes of the mountains becoming obscured in clouds/fog late tonight. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine weather is expected through Thursday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Harrison AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Small  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KRLX 251734 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 134 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control through midweek. Cold front to bring cooler temperatures but limited precipitation Thurday. Another weak system by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 PM Monday... High pressure dominates the weather the start the week. This will bring dry conditions with daytime highs well above normal. High clouds, thanks to Hurricane Maria will linger during this time. Morning river valley fog will be the only real weather concern. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 AM Monday... Although our upper ridge over the Ohio Valley will slowly break down, it will continue to dominate our weather with dry and warm conditions through mid week. Temperatures will continue well above normal with no rain. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 AM Monday... Finally a change in the pattern from a stagnant to a quite progressive one. A northern stream upper trough will push a cold front through the region from the northwest to start the period. However, with Maria forecast to stay east of our area, it will have the effect of robbing moisture from the cold front. Thus, all models have a significant but dry cold front coming across Thursday, with the main change being much cooler but still dry air for the end of the work week. Temperatures will go from well above normal to near normal. There will be a reinforcing shot of cooler air for the weekend under a cold upper trough. So while a light shower with this feature cannot be ruled out for the weekend, chances are not high enough to include at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 130 PM Monday... VFR will continue through the daytime hours into the early evening hours. River valley fog will develop once again. LIFR conditions are anticipated in this region. By sunrise, fog will lift. By mid morning, conditions will return to VFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High today then low to medium overnight into tomorrow morning. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog depth and density might vary across the area. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... Morning valley fog possible through Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JB/MC NEAR TERM...JB SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...JB  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KARX 191029 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 530 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 At 3 AM, weak 850 mb moisture convergence associated with the low level jet is resulting in scattered showers along north of the Interstate 94 corridor in Wisconsin. The 19.00z models are in very good agreement that this moisture transport will gradually wane during the remainder of the overnight. As a result, expect these showers will be gone by day break. The models are in good agreement that the clouds will gradually dissipate this morning and that the afternoon will be partly to mostly sunny. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s. For tonight, the 850 mb moisture transport will increase dramatically ahead of an approaching longwave trough. In addition, the mixed layer CAPES will climb into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg across southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa. A squall line will develop over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota during the evening and this will march toward our area during the overnight. As the main short wave energy ahead of this trough ejects into northern Minnesota, this line will slow and weaken as it moves east across eastern Minnesota and northeast Iowa. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 On Wednesday, a cold front will push east across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. By noon, this front will be close to the Mississippi River and it will east of the area by 00z Thursday. Despite the short wave moving northeast into Canada, there will be sufficient shear and instability for supercells to develop ahead of the cold front. The main severe weather threats would be damaging winds and large hail. However, with this said, it may be east of our area before this occurs. On Thursday, the GFS and GEM produce showers and storms south of the Interstate 90 corridor. Meanwhile, the NAM and ECMWF are dry. Looking at the soundings for this time period, the atmosphere looks too capped for any precipitation to form. Due to this, removed the precipitation for this time period. From Friday into the weekend, the upper level ridge will be building across the region. This will slow the eastward progress of a cold front over the northern and central Plains. Due to this, confined the rain chances to north-central Wisconsin and southeast Minnesota. I would not be surprised that even these areas could be potentially dry too. Southwest flow ahead of this cold front will likely result in warmer temperatures than the MOS guidance. As a result, the temperatures were raised anywhere from 3 to 5F. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 530 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Cigs/Vsby: mass of sub 1kf cigs with vrb vsbys (mostly 3sm or less) over much of MN and northern IA early this morning. Sfc obs and satellite imagery shows some advancement east with the lower cigs/vsby - and could see some impacts at KRST. Models slow the advancement after sunup, and point to a decreasing cloud trend for western WI later this morning. Will keep KLSE out of any cig/vsby restriction for now. KRST should improve by the afternoon, with the expectation of scattering out at least for a few hours. Clouds on the return tonight ahead of a shortwave/sfc front combo. Some lowering again expected, but likely after 12z. Some mvfr probable. WX: leading edge of low level moisture transport/jet should lead to scattered showers development overnight, mostly along and east of the mississippi river. Not enough confidence to add to KLSE at this time, but a vcsh and/or -shra may be needed in the future. Some instability to play with too, so isolated storms could be in the area. Better chances north of the TAF sites. Winds: pressure gradient tightens through the day as the next weather system approaches from the west. Winds will be on the increase this evening, persisting overnight. LLWS a concern with the low level jet overhead. Will add a mention for both TAF sites. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Boyne LONG TERM...Boyne AVIATION...Rieck  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDVN 190835 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 335 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Upper level shortwave and attendant showers will be exiting northwest IL counties prior to daybreak. System brought showers to a fair amount of the cwa yesterday afternoon through evening, though rain amounts were unfortunately rather light (less than 0.1 inch) but some isolated moderate amounts (0.25-0.6 inch) attendant to storms in portions of west central into northwest IL. Clouds continue to decrease from west to east in the wake of the shortwave, and combined with light winds and low level moisture enhanced by recent rain is aiding widespread dense fog and low clouds mostly south/west of Quad Cities. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Dense fog looks to burn off within an hour or two after sunrise per GOES cloud thickness technique. Stratus may persist beyond for a while, but increasing mid/upper level heights should aid in decreasing clouds this afternoon. Banking on this amount of solar insolation to push highs into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Surface warm front is shown to bisect the cwa today, but absence of forcing with heights building aloft, and weak low level convergence precludes from any precip mention today. Precip chcs are not zero however, as pretty decent 850 mb theta-e advection is progged to develop by mid afternoon through this evening from sw to ne with strengthening LLJ, but soundings show fairly shallow moisture depth resulting in confidence too low for any mention. Did hang on to some small PoPs late tonight over northeast IA for potential of some elevated convection developing with veering LLJ and attendant advection, and can't rule out some activity into east central IA near/sw of Quad Cities as well but far from coherent signal in CAMs. Lows tonight in strengthening southerly flow will remain mild and generally in the 60s, although a few sites could only drop into the lower 70s in west/southwest cwa. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through next Monday) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Wednesday...a challenging fcst day with mixed signals from the latest available 00z run models. Cyclonic southwesterly steering flow adjusts acrs the mid to upper MS RVR Valley, while embedded wave shears out acrs MN into the western LK Superior Basin by evening. Associated sfc front will look to get shunted acrs the central CWA by Wed evening and then stall as it aligns from NE-to- SW parallel to the steering flow. Just a low chance for some lingering convective debris or showers sagging acrs the CWA during the day left over from stronger activity earlier to the northwest, and for now will keep the slight CHC pops loaded in the grids. But with FCST soundings suggesting building cap/EML as the day progresses and loss of convergent lift, feel the dry 00z ECMWF and even the NAM may be more on target through 00z anyways. If precip doesn't materialize and debris decays early, extent of warm air advection and mixing southwest winds could boost temps into the upper 80s to lower 90s acrs much of the area and be not all that far off record highs for Sep 20th. The models are probably still overdoing sfc dpts near 70, and ongoing dry sfc layer/mixing may translate to values more in the mid 60s. If DPTs manage to make it in the upper 60s to around 70, heat index readings will range in the low to mid 90s Wed afternoon. Wednesday night may be the main precip window opportunity for the rest of the week. Southwesterly 20-25 KT LLJ flow starts to impinge on the lingering LLVL boundary, and as it tries to retreat back north some as a type of warm front, that's when sctrd showers and storms may develop nocturnally along and north/northwest of where even the boundary adjusts. More optimum shear profiles, southern flank of upper jet dynamics, and LLJ convergence look to occur further to the north acrs WI. But if storms get going locally, enough support there for at least an isolated strong to severe storm, even if elevated in nature. rainfall amounts to be localized again, with those that manage to get under a storm or shower cluster possibly getting up to a half inch by Thu morning. Many other areas to get little rain at all. Seasonably mild overnight lows in the 60s. Thursday and Friday...After a low chance of some lingering precip Thu morning out of what ever Wed activity can occur, the latest suite of medium range model runs all suggest a high amplitude-blocked up pattern taking grip acrs the CONUS between active western Atlantic tropical systems and western CONUS L/W Trof. The net result locally would be dry and very unseasonably warm conditions to end the week. A lot of upper 80s to low 90s look to be on tap, especially with a southerly flow recharge and deeper mix. Summer won't want to end on Friday. Saturday into early next week...longer range indications/upper jet trends suggest the blocked pattern to continue acrs the region maintaining unseasonable warmth and dry conditions through at least Sunday locally, compounding the drought conditions. Incoming lee side long wave transition zone, where western gulf northward moisture conveyor shuttles up along to fuel an elongated precip swath, now looks to edge east acrs the area later Mon into Tue. But this timing still very suspect at this juncture and depends on ongoing interaction with subsidence fields off/to the west of the Atlantic tropical system/s. ..12.. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night) ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Areas of fog and low clouds will increase overnight into the mid morning hours with extended periods of MVFR to LIFR conditions and possibly VLIFR conditions at all the terminals. Skies will clear by late morning with VFR conditions into the Tuesday evening. Winds will be light into mid morning and then become southerly at 5 to 10 mph. && .CLIMATE... ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017 Record Highs for Wed September 20... Moline.........92 in 1931 Cedar Rapids...93 in 1931 Dubuque........92 in 1895 Burlington.....93 in 1940 && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for Benton-Cedar- Clinton-Des Moines-Henry IA-Iowa-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson- Jones-Keokuk-Lee-Linn-Louisa-Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren- Washington. IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for Hancock- Henderson-McDonough-Mercer-Rock Island-Warren. MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for Clark- Scotland. && $$ SYNOPSIS...McClure SHORT TERM...McClure LONG TERM...12 AVIATION...Nichols CLIMATE...12  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KLWX 170759 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 359 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Warm high pressure will remain over the eastern United States this week. Meanwhile, Hurricane Jose is expected to track north off the coast of the eastern United States during the early to mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Surface high pressure resides atop the northeast and Mid Atlantic regions early this morning. Most of the scattered mid-level cloud cover that survived past midnight has since dissipated. With nearly clear skies, no wind, and dewpoints well into the 60s, the environment has been favorable for fog formation. Its becoming more than localized, and have switched to areal wording. Thus far (as of 3am) no dense fog has been noted. However, NARRE/HREF/GLMP have been suggesting that an area of low clouds/fog present across the Delmarva and Virginia tidewater will be spreading west to near I-95 by dawn with a good (70-90%) probability of fog less than 1/2 mi. Based on the current situation, that may be a pinch overdone. Am leaning forecast in that direction, but any statement or advisory will likely be a game-time decision. Once the low clouds and fog burn off...which likely will be by mid- morning...the atmosphere will be similar to the past couple of days. Anticipate cumulus to develop during the afternoon, with widely scattered showers soon thereafter. Uninhibited CAPE does support the precipitation, but shear, lapse rates, and a synoptic source of lift are all lacking. Thus PoPs will be highest in the mountains. Once again believe that NAM/GFS/ECMWF are overdoing QPF output, and am siding closer to CAMs. Temperatures will likely be fairly close to yesterday, and am taking cues not just from ensemble MOS but also persistence. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Since there will be little change in air mass through Monday, with plenty of moisture and rather low mid-level heights, the forecast will be fairly similar through the period. The challenges will be fog development tonight, especially late at night, followed by diurnal development during the day. The fog will be dictated by where residual clouds reside; have broad-brushed the potential pretty much areawide. As for precip, Jose will be offshore but nearing the Mid-Atlantic by late Monday. While the system likely won't be affecting the area directly, onshore flow will add to the low-level moisture profile as well as enhancing convergence. Therefore it will be harder to pinpoint where showers may or may not be. Have a 20-30 PoP just about anywhere during the afternoon. Jose's track most likely will be far enough offshore to preclude impact as it makes its pass Monday night into Tuesday. Only minor PoPs remain in the Bay and adjacent zones. Do have some cloud cover though. While track errors will be less as the cyclone nears, and model guidance is in good agreement, changes are still possible. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for updates on the forecast regarding Jose. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The track of Jose becomes very uncertain for the late week, although the potential for significant impacts here is low. Also tropical storm Maria will be the next system to watch for potential U.S. impact next week. Those two Atlantic tropical systems and high pressure over the eastern United States will be the main weather features of note through this upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Flight restrictions will be a challenge at the start of the period. NARRE/LAMP/HREF all suggest that IFR (or lower) will march west, stopping at DCA/BWI by sunrise. Suspect this will more of a low cloud issue vs fog, but there will be some of both. Outside of this, areas of fog are developing. Presently am holding onto MVFR, but predominant IFR probable at MRB. Brief IFR (or lower) possible just about anywhere, but confidence in specifics low. Assuming the cloud back does spread west, is dissipation will be the next challenge. Sun angle not as strong as it would be mid-summer, but we should be able to get back to VFR by mid-morning. Scattered showers possible this afternoon. Coverage in doubt, and any impact would be limited and brief. Am keeping VFR in the forecast. Tonight and tomorrow will be a carbon copy with respect to concerns, ie: fog to start the day followed by widely scattered afternoon showers. Once again, Flight restrictions likely in low clouds and fog, but confidence in details low. Jose will make its nearest pass in its northbound trek Monday night and Tuesday. Impacts should remain east of the terminals, based on the current forecast. Past that, only aviation concern thru Thu is the potential for patchy morning fog. && .MARINE... Winds light, and should remain so into Monday. The gradient increases thereafter as Jose nears the waters. The cyclone will remain well offshore as it heads north Monday night and Tuesday. Small Craft Advisories does appear likely during this time. Gale not out of the question, but its a rather low probability event at this point. Past that, no significant marine concerns through Thu. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Water levels running about a half-foot above astronomical normals, but that is sufficient to touch minor flood threshold at St George Island. Elsewhere, caution stages have been met at many sites. Without much flow, suspect the result will be same during the daytime tide cycle today. Water levels will then start to inch upward as Jose nears the mouth of the Chesapeake and forces water into the estuary. There is a wide range of solutions as to how extensive this rise will be. The nighttime tide cycle is astronomically preferred. Depending on how close the storm gets, moderate is not impossible, but uncertainty on this is very high at the moment. Based on confidence, have extended the Coastal Flood Advisory for St Marys County for two more cycles. It likely will need to be continued beyond that. No other actions have been taken at this point, but Annapolis may be at risk for minor flooding Sunday night/early Monday morning. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for MDZ017. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CAS NEAR TERM...HTS SHORT TERM...HTS LONG TERM...CAS AVIATION...HTS/cs MARINE...HTS/cs TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 141904 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 304 PM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper low and associated remnants of Irma will push through the region today. Behind this system, an upper level ridge will likely build into the area and remain over the region well into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 18z radar shows bands of precipitation continue to be heaviest through the northwest counties and will continue to the east as the morning continues and into the early afternoon and have adjusted POPS accordingly. The GOES 16 veggie band is showing some lessing in cloud thickness as drier air filters in from the southeast. As there will be some increase in sunshine have increased maximum temperatures. Another round of precipitation will be possible through the southeast late this afternoon and early this evening on the backside of the low as it moves to the northeast. The trough moves east around 00Z which will allow for precip to end fairly quickly afterward. As the upper low passes east of the state and high pressure builds in there should be partial clearing. Couple that with light wind and wet ground and that should lead to areas of fog late tonight into early tomorrow morning. The Nationalblend min temps range from the mid 50s in the cooler valleys of the northwest, to the low 60s across the Susq Valley. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... Deep moisture and upper low will have pushed east of Pa by tomorrow. However, all short range guidance continues to show a lingering upper level trough over the region, which will likely lead to a few diurnally-driven afternoon showers under partly sunny skies. Given the clear skies and slight instability we should easily mix to 850mb, supporting max temps between 75-80F. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Med range guidance all showing an anomalous upper level ridge lying across the eastern Grt Lks this weekend through much of next week, a strong indicator of warm and fair weather for central Pa. However, there could be just enough cool air aloft to support widely scattered diurnal convection each day, as the GEFS plumes show. By next week, we will be watching the progress of Jose, but all guidance at this time keep it far enough off the east coast to not affect central Pa. Temperatures will remain above normal through at least the middle of next week, with ensemble mean 850 temps of around 14C supportive of max temps in the upper 70s and low 80s. && .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Ceiling restrictions will become more intermittent late this afternoon. Showers will affect the northern three TAF sites and should possibly spread to the southeastern TAF sites. Any lingering evening showers across eastern PA should dissipate shortly after sunset, as the upper low passes east of the state and high pressure builds in. Partial clearing, light wind and wet ground should lead to areas of fog late tonight, along with return of ceiling restrictions over western higher terrain. Expect periods of MVFR to IFR at the Western TAF sites, beginning around 06Z. Restrictions should improve 12Z to 15Z. A lingering upper level trough over the region on Friday will likely lead to a few diurnally-driven afternoon showers, mainly through the eastern TAF sites. Otherwise there will be improving conditions. .Outlook... Fri...Valley fog early. Cig restrictions west thru mid morning. Scattered mid/late day showers - mainly east. Sat...Patchy fog early. Otherwise no sig wx. Sun-Mon...Perhaps a shower across the northwest, otherwise no sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Ceru NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/Ceru SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Ceru LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...Ceru/RXR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 141542 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1142 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... An upper low and associated remnants of Irma will push through the region today. Behind this system, an upper level ridge will likely build into the area and remain over the region well into next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 15z radar shows the vort max moving through central PA and drifting to the northeast. Bands of precipitation continue to be heaviest through the northern tier counties and will move to the east as the morning continues and into the early afternoon and have adjusted POPS accordingly. The GOES 16 veggie band is showing some lessing in cloud thickness as drier air filters in from the southeast. As there will be some increase in sunshine have increased maximum temperatures. Another round of precipitation will be possible through the southeast late this afternoon and early this evening on the backside of the low as it moves to the northeast. Blend of model qpf indicates up to an additional inch through the northern counties while basin averages south of I-80 expected to only be around a tenth of an inch. Areas where forcing is weak could see locally higher amounts. Modest diurnal heating will result in low end CAPEs. Combine that with the passage of the upper trough and it should result in the best chance of showers/storms across the southeast half of the forecast area during during mid to late afternoon. Max temps today will range from the mid 60s over the Laurel Highlands to the upper 70s over the Lower Susq Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Any lingering evening showers across eastern Pa should dissipate shortly after sunset, as upper low passes east of the state and high pressure builds in. Partial clearing, light wind and wet ground should lead to areas of fog late tonight. Nationalblend min temps range from the mid 50s in the cooler valleys of the northwest, to the low 60s across the Susq Valley. Deep moisture and upper low will have pushed east of Pa by Friday. However, all short range guidance shows a lingering upper level trough over the region, which will likely lead to a few diurnally-driven afternoon showers. Under partly sunny skies, we should easily mix to 850mb, supporting max temps between 75-80F. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Med range guidance all showing an anomalous upper level ridge lying across the eastern Grt Lks this weekend through much of next week, a strong indicator of warm and fair weather for central Pa. However, there could be just enough cool air aloft to support widely scattered diurnal convection each day, as the GEFS plumes show. By next week, we will be watching the progress of Jose, but all guidance at this time keep it far enough off the east coast to not affect central Pa. Temperatures will remain above normal through at least the middle of next week, with ensemble mean 850 temps of around 14C supportive of max temps in the upper 70s and low 80s. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... An upper low and associated remnants of Irma will push through the region today. Showers will impact Central PA through the day, being most persistent over the western mountains this morning and shifting to the east this afternoon (isolated thunder will also be possible this afternoon). Ceiling restrictions will impact a fairly widespread area through midday, then become more intermittent this afternoon. Fog over portions of the Susq Valley early will erode by mid morning. Any lingering evening showers across eastern PA should dissipate shortly after sunset, as upper low passes east of the state and high pressure builds in. Partial clearing, light wind and wet ground should lead to areas of fog late tonight, along with return of ceiling restrictions over western higher terrain. A lingering upper level trough over the region on Friday will likely lead to a few diurnally-driven afternoon showers - mainly eastern half. Otherwise improving conditions. .Outlook... Fri...Valley fog early. Cig restrictions west thru mid morning. Scattered mid/late day showers - mainly east. Sat...Patchy fog early. Otherwise no sig wx. Sun-Mon...Perhaps a shower across the northwest, otherwise no sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/Ceru SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Ceru LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...Ceru/RXR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KSGX 131548 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 848 AM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler weather will set in today and continue through next week, with afternoon highs remaining below seasonal averages for all areas. A deep marine layer along the coast will bring more prevalent low clouds through next week, with a chance for light drizzle near the coast tonight and Thursday night. Breezy winds are expected along the desert slopes in Riverside and San Diego Counties tonight and Thursday. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... At 845 AM, a closed low was off the coast was producing a few isolated thunderstorms near San Francisco and a few altocumulus over the SoCal deserts. The marine layer deepened by around 1000 ft, per the 12Z NKX sounding, over the last 24 hours. With the deeper marine layer the stratus deck covered most of the valleys this morning. The closed low currently off the coast and a second weak shortwave close on its heals will traverse the region through Saturday. This will result in height falls, a deeper marine layer, and stronger onshore flow that will bring SoCal its first glimpse of more fall like weather. Light drizzle will be possible tonight and Thursday night as the cloud thickness of the marine layer stratus increases to 1500-2500 ft. Clearing may also be slow or limited Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will cool considerably, with afternoon highs running 8-16 degrees below seasonal averages for inland areas and 4-8 degrees below average along the coast Thursday and Friday. Breezy winds will occur over the desert slopes and into the deserts over Riverside and San Diego Counties this evening and Thursday. Global models remain in good agreement, suggesting a transition to a longwave trough over the Western US by this weekend. This pattern should hold through next week, with fluctuations in the day to day forecast dependent on the timing of individual shortwaves rotating through the broader longwave trough. Given this, the forecast through next week favors the continuation of below average temperatures for all areas, a deep marine layer, and dry southwest flow in the mid and upper levels. && .AVIATION... 131525Z...Coast/Valleys/Coastal Mountain Slopes...Stratus 25-40 sm inland with bases 1000-2000 ft msl, tops 1800-2800 ft msl, and local vis 1-5 sm, will gradually and partially clear to near the coast through 2100 UTC, while P6SM vis and SCT-FEW clouds AOA 10000 ft msl continue elsewhere. Marine layer inversion strength of 4 deg C. 2100- 14/0000 UTC, mostly P6SM vis, with SCT-FEW clouds AOA 10000 ft msl and FEW-SCT clouds in the 1500-3000 ft msl layer, except for possibly BKN cigs 1500-3000 ft msl near the coast. 14/0000-1500 UTC, OVC stratus developing and moving inland quickly, filling the coast, valleys, coastal slopes and into the passes, with variable bases 1500-3500 ft msl and tops 4000-5000 ft msl, with drizzle/isol -SHRA, local vis 2-5 sm, and mountain obscuration due to clouds/drizzle. Mountain Ridges/Desert Slopes/Deserts...SCT-BKN clouds AOA 10000 ft msl becoming FEW after 14/0300 UTC. Primarily P6SM vis expected through Thursday morning. After 14/0000 UTC, southwest to west winds 20-30 kt with gusts 40 kt will result in mod-stg uddfs/llws. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine weather is expected through Sunday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation will not be needed this week. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. PZ...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...Albright AVIATION/MARINE...Harrison  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KFGF 131426 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 926 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 924 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Will let current forecast ride for now. Only issue in the near term is smoke density. Will limit smoke mention to the morning and see how things go. UPDATE Issued at 702 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Short wave moving east into far eastern SD with some high clouds in SE ND and western MN. These clouds moving east. Otherwise satellite shows a clear sky west of Grand Forks...but we shall see how the high level smoke as the sun rises. Overall did increase sky cover some over MN due to the high clouds. No other changes. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Frontal boundary at 08z along a Roseau-Grand Forks-Valley City line and slowly sagging southeast. It will stall out nr a Bemidji-Fergus Falls line late today and remain in that position into tonight. Eventually enough moisture developing north of the boundary combined with a weak short wave moving northeast will cause a few showers or isolated t-storms to develop mainly overnight along and north of the boundary. Until then for the daytime today high clouds moving slowly east to the north of a short wave in South Dakota. A few storms in E SD south of Aberdeen moving slowly east and will maintain a dry fcst. Issue cloud cover wise today is degree of haze from the smoke and high cloud thickness. Smoke forecast indicates thicker smoke holding S Manitoba into northern into central and western ND. Put in some smoke in NW fcst area after coord with BIS. Day shift can evaluate sky cover condition/haze. It will be a warm day, though not as hot as Tuesday. But still 85 to 90 in many areas...with cooler readings DVL basin. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Thursday will see a 500 mb short wave move east-northeast along the ND/SD border and into nrn MN by 00z Fri. Frontal boundary Bemidji area to near Wahpeton. Near this boundary enough forcing should case a few storms to form and enough CAPE (1500-2000 j/kg) so that a few strong storms are psbl. SPC has area near the front in marginal risk. There is some moisture at 850 mb along the front in northern MN, centered around Bemidji/Park Rapids. That area would seem the best chc for isold SVR late Thu aftn/eve. Shear though is quite weak. A much stronger short wave and surface low will move northeast into the southern Red River valley Friday late day/evening. With this feature I could see a few severe storms south and east of the sfc low in warm sector in WC MN Fri late day/evening with a more stratiform rain NW of the low center in central into NE ND. High pops for precipitation Friday night..then rain chances diminishing Saturday as the low moves northeast. For early Sunday, the previous system has exited to the northeast, but small chances for showers will linger generally along and north of the US Highway 2 corridor. A cool, dry airmass pushes through with high pressure behind this system, but cloud cover and a nearby upper trough will keep highs in the 50s and 60s for Sunday and Monday. For early next week, a deep upper trough digs into the west, developing southwest flow aloft for the Northern Plains. Model confidence is quite low for next week's forecast as the individual models struggle to realize a few quick moving disturbances aloft. If these disturbances pass through the forecast area, they would likely result in some scattered showers, so did leave small chances in. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 702 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 VFR is anticipated thru the the pd. Main issue will be any MVFR vsbys in haze due to smoke psbl in NE ND (DVL). Winds north up to 10 kts DVL, GFK today L/V FAR/TVF/BJI. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Voelker SHORT TERM...Riddle LONG TERM...BP/Riddle AVIATION...Riddle  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KFGF 130838 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 338 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Frontal boundary at 08z along a Roseau-Grand Forks-Valley City line and slowly sagging southeast. It will stall out nr a Bemidji-Fergus Falls line late today and remain in that position into tonight. Eventually enough moisture developing north of the boundary combined with a weak short wave moving northeast will cause a few showers or isolated t-storms to develop mainly overnight along and north of the boundary. Until then for the daytime today high clouds moving slowly east to the north of a short wave in South Dakota. A few storms in E SD south of Aberdeedn moving slowly east and will maintain a dry fcst. Issue cloud cover wise today is degree of haze from the smoke and high cloud thickness. Smoke forecast indicates thicker smoke holding S Manitoba into northern into central and western ND. Put in some smoke in NW fcst area after coord with BIS. Day shift can evaulate sky cover condition/haze. It will be a warm day, though not as hot as Tuesday. But still 85 to 90 in many areas...with cooler readings DVL basin. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Thursday will see a 500 mb short wave move east-northeast along the ND/SD border and into nrn MN by 00z Fri. Frontal boundary Bemidji area to near Wahpeton. Near this boundary enough forcing should case a few storms to form and enough CAPE (1500-2000 j/kg) so that a few strong storms are psbl. SPC has area near the front in marginal risk. There is some moisture at 850 mb along the front in northern MN, centered around Bemidji/Park Rapids. That area would seem the best chc for isold SVR late Thu aftn/eve. Shear though is quite weak. A much stronger short wave and surface low will move northeast into the southern Red River valley Friday late day/evening. With this feature I could see a few severe storms south and east of the sfc low in warm sector in WC MN Fri late day/evening with a more stratiform rain NW of the low center in central into NE ND. High pops for precipitation Friday night..then rain chances diminishing Saturday as the low moves northeast. For early Sunday, the previous system has exited to the northeast, but small chances for showers will linger generally along and north of the US Highway 2 corridor. A cool, dry airmass pushes through with high pressure behind this system, but cloud cover and a nearby upper trough will keep highs in the 50s and 60s for Sunday and Monday. For early next week, a deep upper trough digs into the west, developing southwest flow aloft for the Northern Plains. Model confidence is quite low for next week's forecast as the individual models struggle to realize a few quick moving disturbances aloft. If these disturbances pass through the forecast area, they would likely result in some scattered showers, so did leave small chances in. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Expect a little more smoke around the TAF sites for this TAF period, so kept a FEW250 layer to account for that. May be a little thicker at times, but that is always hard to judge. Otherwise wind speeds will continue to remain on the lower side as well. Not sure vsbys will be affect, so will continue to monitor that for now, and not mention in the TAFs. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Riddle LONG TERM...BP/Riddle AVIATION...Godon  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KOKX 060247 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1047 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front stalls over the Tri-State area overnight through Wednesday as waves of low pressure move along it. The front moves off the coast on Thursday, with Canadian high pressure slowly building in its wake through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Cold front continues to slowly advance into NW portions of the Tri-State overnight, and stalls as it aligns with the upper flow. One batch of weakening showers will move through the NYC metro and points N&W through midnight. Thereafter scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm activity likely to continue to work into the same area overnight along the cold front as weak disturbances track through the upper flow. Activity will likely be more isolated across eastern LI/ SE CT, farther from focus. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The cold front stalls over the local area as the front becomes aligned with the wind flow aloft. Although CAPE diminishes with the loss of daytime heating, sufficient speed shear and lift will exist and thus the continue the chance for TS. POP's on Thursday go to categorical as synoptic lift is enhanced by right-entrance region of a 120-130 kt jet streak in the upper levels and develops a surface low pressure wave on the front. The surface wave lifts north overnight Wednesday leaving us in westerly cold air advection. Have gone with the warmer GFS solution for the temperature forecast as it subjectively appears the GFS is closer with the current precipitation fields. Also, the GFS is closer to the ECMWF MOS data. There is a high risk of rip current development through Wednesday eve and likely continuing through the end of the week. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At the start of the period, a highly amplified upper flow will feature a full latitude trough east of the Mississippi River Valley and ridging over the intermountain west. The pattern gradually translates east while dampening with the upper trough slowly shifting east of the area Saturday night. NWP is in good agreement with the H5 pattern into the weekend. The GFS continues to be more progressive than the ECMWF and GGEM with the departing upper low on Sunday. This looks to have little impact on sensible weather across the region this weekend into early next week as a large area of high pressure builds into the region with dry, cool conditions. This high will also serve as blocking mechanism as Hurricane Irma remains well to the south, tracking near the Florida Peninsula and into the southeast late in the weekend into early next week. Refer to the latest products from the National Hurricane Center for details on Irma. Showers will be a possibility on Thursday, mainly in the morning, as mid-level frontogenetic forcing exits to the east. There will also be a low chance of showers Friday and perhaps Saturday afternoons with the upper trough passing through. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold front slowly approaches from the west this evening. Conditions lower to MVFR overnight, with IFR probable at KISP and KGON. Intermittent showers then continue through the TAF period. S-SSW winds becomes light and variable overnight. S flow develops at under 10 kt at coastal/city terminals by mid morning Wednesday. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments possible for changing ceilings and visibilities associated with showers. KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments possible for changing ceilings and visibilities associated with showers. KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments possible for changing ceilings and visibilities associated with showers. KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments possible for changing ceilings and visibilities associated with showers. KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments possible for changing ceilings and visibilities associated with showers. KISP TAF Comments: Amendments possible for changing ceilings in areas of stratus. OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday afternoon-night...MVFR possible in showers and thunderstorms. .Thursday-Thursday night...MVFR or lower possible in showers early Thursday morning, otherwise VFR. W-NW winds G15-20kt possible. .Friday...VFR. Slight chance of mainly afternoon showers at northern terminals. .Friday night-Sunday...VFR. && .MARINE... Winds have diminished below SCA criteria, however, ocean seas will remain at 5 ft or greater due to lingering southerly swells and as swells from distant hurricane Irma build into the region. The swells from Irma will keep seas above 5 ft on the ocean waters into the weekend. The swells will also result in rough conditions near the inlets and at the entrance to Long Island Sound. Winds may approach SCA levels late Thu/Thu night otherwise they are forecast to remain at sub- advsy levels. Refer to the latest products from the National Hurricane Center for details on Irma. Winds and seas on the non-ocean waters will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels. && .HYDROLOGY... Rain overnight through late Wednesday night are forecast to total in the 1.0" to 1.5" range with highest amounts to the east. Due to the extended time range for the rainfall to occur, only minor flooding of known urban/poor drainage areas is anticipated. Most areas will receive little to no impacts. No hydrologic issues are anticipated from Thursday into early next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Tongue NEAR TERM...Tongue SHORT TERM...Tongue LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...IRD MARINE...24/Tongue HYDROLOGY...24/Tongue  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KOKX 051811 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 211 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches today, then stalls over the Tri-State area tonight and Wednesday before exiting east late Wednesday night. High pressure then builds in through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1230 PM Update - forecast on track. Timing for convection to the NW of NYC for very late this afternoon as latest HRRR and RAP have been to progressive. They're also not initializing with current convection or lack there of over eastern PA. Otherwise, a cold front approaches this afternoon, entering Orange County towards sunset. Showers and thunderstorms for the most part should be confined to nearby the front as it becomes more aligned with the flow aloft. Still cannot rule out any individual cells popping up farther ahead of the front this afternoon, but mainly over the far NW zones where better lift and differential heating could occur. CAPE and shear are forecast to be enough for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. SPC Day 1 outlook has slight risk for severe with main threat of gusty winds, so have left a mention of this in the forecast. Can't rule out hail either because of the good shear. There is a high risk for the development of rip currents at the Ocean beaches today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The cold front stalls over the tri-state area tonight as it becomes further aligned with the wind flow aloft. Although CAPE diminishes with the loss of daytime heating, sufficient speed shear and lift will continue the threat of strong storms at least during the evening hours. A theta-e ridge will be shifting through the region as well with deeper moisture and increasing PoPs. Given this setup, the potential of training cells brings some concern with flash flooding, but a limiting factor will be the loss of CAPE and consequential chances of deeper convection coinciding where flash flood guidance suggests the greatest flooding threat exists. The cold front remains over the forecast area on Wednesday with models suggesting a wave of low pressure moving north along it towards us. Associated lift with convergence along the front will maintain likely PoPs across the entire region. The front then begins to move east again during Wednesday night as a deep upper trough axis begins to move in from the west. Synoptic lift will be enhanced by an approaching right-entrance region of a 120-130 kt jet streak in the upper levels, and over eastern zones, a low level jet will provide extra lift. Will therefore go with likely PoPs again, and begin to taper them off west to east during the late night hours. Can't rule out a thunderstorm Wednesday and Wednesday night given the lift and MUCAPE values. Flash flooding remains a concern during both periods with the front stalled before moving slowly east. The flooding potential will however be lessened with this being a long- duration event that doesn't appear to bring long periods of heavy rain. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At the start of the period, a highly amplified upper flow will feature a full latitude trough east of the Mississippi River Valley and ridging over the intermountain west. The pattern gradually translates east with the upper trough passing offshore Saturday into Saturday night. The GFS continues to be more progressive than the ECMWF and GGEM, with the overall trend slower. This though looks to have little impact on sensible weather across the region this weekend into early next week as a large area of high pressure builds into the region with dry, cool conditions. This high will also serve as blocking mechanism as Hurricane Irma remains well to the south, tracking near the Florida Peninsula and into the southeast late in the weekend into early next week. Refer to the latest products from the National Hurricane Center for details on Irma. Showers will be a possibility on Thursday, mainly in the morning, as mid-level frontogenetic forcing exits to the east. There will also be a low chance of showers Friday and Saturday afternoons with the upper trough passing through. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold front slowly approaches from the west into Wednesday, then begins to cross the area Wednesday afternoon. VFR through this afternoon. Conditions lower to MVFR throughout overnight, with IFR probable at KGON. There is a low chance of IFR elsewhere, with best chance at KBDR and KISP. Showers, with possibly an embedded thunderstorm, move into far western terminals around 22-00z, city terminals around 3-6z, and eastern terminals 9-12z. Showers then linger through the TAF period. S-SSW winds 10-15g20-25KT this afternoon, becomes light and variable throughout this evening. S flow develops at under 10 kt at coastal/city terminals by mid morning Wednesday. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Timing of changes in wind speed and direction could be off +/- 1-2 hours. Sustained S winds around 15KT with gusts up to 25KT possible for the afternoon/evening push. KLGA TAF Comments: Timing of changes in wind speed and direction could be off +/- 1-2 hours. Sustained S winds around 15KT with gusts up to 20KT possible for the afternoon/evening push. KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of changes in wind speed and direction could be off +/- 1-2 hours. Wind gusts up to 20 kt out of the SSW possible for the afternoon/evening push. KTEB TAF Comments: Timing of changes in wind speed and direction could be off +/- 1-2 hours. Wind gusts up to 20 kt out of the SSW possible for the afternoon/evening push. KHPN TAF Comments: Timing of changes in wind speed and direction could be off +/- 1-2 hours. KISP TAF Comments: Timing of changes in wind speed and direction could be off +/- 1-2 hours. Wind gusts up to 20 kt out of the S possible for the afternoon/evening push. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday afternoon-night...MVFR possible in showers and thunderstorms. .Thursday-Thursday night...MVFR or lower possible in showers early Thursday morning, otherwise VFR. W-NW winds G15-20kt possible. .Friday...VFR. Slight chance of mainly afternoon showers at northern terminals. .Friday night-Sunday...VFR. && .MARINE... SCA remains on the ocean waters through tonight for winds and seas meeting advisory criteria. There may be occasional gusts to 25 kt over the South Shore Bays today, otherwise the rest of the waters should remain below advisory criteria. Winds diminish below criteria late tonight, however, seas will likely remain at 5 ft or greater Wednesday. Winds should run around 10 kt or less across all waters Thursday through Saturday as high pressure builds in from the west. Swells from distant hurricane Irma will keep seas around 5 ft over the coastal ocean zones later this week. Refer to the latest products from the National Hurricane Center for details on Irma. Seas and waves on the non-ocean waters will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels. && .HYDROLOGY... There is the potential for 1.5 to 2 inches of rain from late today through Thursday with locally higher amounts possible. As a result, there could be minor flooding of known urban/poor drainage areas, especially if locally heavy rainfall occurs over those locations. Flash flooding, while not likely, cannot be ruled out either primarily late today into this evening mainly west to northwest of the city. Otherwise, since this rain will fall over about 36-48 hours, most areas will receive little to no impacts. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JC/DW NEAR TERM...JC/Tongue SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...Maloit MARINE...JC/DW HYDROLOGY...JC/DW  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDMX 302112 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 412 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017 .SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday/ Issued at 411 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017 Bottom Line up Front... Fog potential once again tonight...though at this time, it does not appear the fog will be as dense as it was this morning. A few showers are possible this evening in the northeast, but they should pose no hazardous impacts. Tonight... 20z water vapor imagery shows an upper low spinning near the Hudson Bay. Meanwhile, a 1020mb sfc high has been in place directly over Iowa today. Models are picking up on a weak impulse ejecting off the base of the longwave trough associated with the Hudson Bay low, that is propagating southward, interacting slightly with the low-level convergence created from the westerly component to the winds from the sfc high over Iowa. 20z vis sat shows this band very readily. Hi- res models now coming into good agreement with retrograding the sfc high to the northwest and breaking it down slightly, with transport winds aloft pushing the band of clouds/light precip south/SW into northern Iowa overnight. CIGs are around 1000 to 2000 ft with these clouds...which would obviously hinder radiational fog development. Cloud thicknesses may increase enough to where some low-end showers may reach the ground in northern Iowa. Ahead of the clouds, patchy to areas of fog may be possible again. For tomorrow afternoon, the overall trend for thunderstorms to fire along this band of clouds is decreasing, as it appears there will be a strong push to the west with the next sfc high being positioned over northern Wisconsin by peak heating. Have slight chance for pops in there now from central to western IA, but this may need to be removed. .LONG TERM.../Thursday night through Wednesday/ Issued at 411 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017 Bottom Line up Front... What perhaps may be Summer's last gasp will impact us Sunday into Monday as high temperatures may make it into the upper 80s and perhaps even low 90s in some locations. By Tuesday and the rest of the week, highs will struggle to reach 70 degrees (no typo), with low temperatures making it into the 40s...with upper 30s possible in northern Iowa. Friday through Monday... With a very broad area of high pressure located over the Four Corners region, a thermal ridge has been building over the intermountain west and pushing well into Canada. Meanwhile, a deep upper low has been spinning off the Alaska shoreline. Several impulses are expected to eject off the low between today and Monday. With the Four Corners high amplifying and drifting north, these impulses will all remain in Canada, keeping us dry through this weekend. In perhaps what will be the final show of warm weather for this summer, the thermal ridge will come crashing down over Iowa Sunday into Monday. 850mb temps should be somewhere near +20C to +25C for Sunday afternoon, which will yield temperatures well into the 80s for Sunday. Models then diverge very wildly on the curtain call for thermal ridge over Iowa. A deep, broad upper low has been well- advertised for the past several days, with the accompanying longwave trough digging all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico. At some point on Monday, the lad cold front will be passing through Iowa. The 12z GFS is much slower with the fropa and, resultingly, has another day with the thermal ridge and +25C temps over Iowa...meaning temperatures could be in the 90s. The 12z ECMWF, however, pushes the front through during the morning hours on Monday, leading to strong CAA throughout peak heating and confining temperatures in the 70s and 80s. At this point, the GFS solution seems to be the outlier, so have leaned strongly towards the ECMWF, keeping temperatures in the 80s... this is subject to change. Tuesday and beyond... Confidence continues to be high in well-below normal temperatures and dry conditions across Iowa. The trends have been slowly downward, with 850mb temps perhaps making it down to +5C by Wednesday night. For the first week in September, record daily low maximum temperatures are in the 50s, and record low minimum temperatures are in the 30s. At this time, it appears we should be 5 to 10 degrees to warm to break those records, but we will be watching closely. && .AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon/ Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017 High confidence in VFR conditions the rest of today. Will be contending with fog again across the northern sites... KFOD...and especially KMCW and KALO. Band in clouds moving from north to south across northern Wisconsin will make it into northern Iowa by tomorrow morning. CIGs with these clouds should be near 1000ft. Have kept out of IFR for now, but next update may need IFR at least for KMCW. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kotenberg LONG TERM...Kotenberg AVIATION...Kotenberg  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KLSX 202048 AFDLSX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 348 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Monday Afternoon) Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017 The outflow boundary from last night's MCS has pushed almost all the way through southeast through the forecast area, and the synoptic warm front is lifting back up through west central and northwest Missouri. A line of showers and thunderstorms is moving along the front from near Moberly up to near Maryville. The eastern end of the line appears to be weakening as it moves into more stable air behind the outflow boundary over our area. That being said...low level moisture convergence continues along the front through the rest of the afternoon...so I expect at least isolated to widely scattered convection to continue until at least 01-02Z this evening. across parts of central and northeast Missouri. The front will continue to lift northeast into Iowa tonight. All short range guidance is now showing moderate to strong moisture convergence over Iowa on the nose of a 30-40kt low level jet with precip breaking out between 04-06Z either over eastern Nebraska or northern/northwestern Iowa. CAMs also have some flavor of MCS over Iowa tonight. The strength and movement of the MCS tonight will be critical to what happens on Monday for the eclipse. The most likely scenario is that the MCS will push east-southeast tonight and early Monday morning as the low level jet veers. Even the forward propagating Corfidi vectors show a southerly component late tonight...and the highest MUCAPE will be over southern Iowa/northern Missouri which will help the overall movement to have a southerly component. Think the MCS will lay down an outflow boundary which will push south into the area on Monday morning...with isolated to widely scattered convection forming on it as it intersects higher CAPE air across eastern Missouri and southwestern Illinois. The 4km NAM nest has the boundary drifting all the way south to near the I-70 corridor by around noon on Monday where it lights up with thunderstorms right around eclipse time at 18Z. All this makes good synoptic sense given the current set up and is very similar to what happened today. Unfortunately this will make eclipse viewing problematic. Convective debris from overnight storms, and new development on the outflow boundary will likely produce considerable cloudiness...but like today there should also be breaks in the clouds, and the clouds may also be partially translucent. Additionally...mesoscale features that are not well represented in the models could change the forecast for the better...or the worse. Unfortunately there's simply no way to precisely predict how cloudy it will be tomorrow at 18Z right now. Carney .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Next Sunday) Issued at 348 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017 (Tuesday) A strong upper level disturbance en route to carving out a longwave TROF over eastern North America will move thru this period. It will be largely coincident with passage of a strong surface cold front. Plenty of moisture to work with, as precipitable water (PW) values thru the column will be over 2 inches and will justify high PoPs, especially north of I-70. Relatively high warm cloud thicknesses at or just above 4km along with the PW values will support a marginal threat for localized heavy rainfall that could lead to an isolated flash flooding event. Time to watch how this evolves and pans out as it will be somewhat dependent on how events the day before play out for specifics and so no plans on any Flood Watch at this time. Lots of clouds and the early onset of decent rain probs for most areas should keep temps in check with low-mid 80s for maxes. (Wednesday - Sunday) NW flow aloft will then prevail Wednesday and Thursday in the wake of passage of the digging shortwave disturbance, with this flow then transitioning some as a weak upper RIDGE slides thru Friday and Saturday. This will all be happening as a strong area of Canadian high pressure dominates the region thru at least Friday and probably into Saturday. While there are some hints from the models at bringing weak, fast moving upper level disturbances thru Wednesday and Thursday, it will need to overcome what should be a dry column in place. With forward speed too much and strength too little, it is unlikely any disturbance of this type will be able to produce sensible wx in our CWA and so opted for a dry forecast. There is also some indication of another disturbance on Saturday, but the track looks to edge our area with marginal moisture and so trended to a dry forecast for this day as well until this can get better resolved. Another shortwave could drop down again on Sunday to help reinvigorate the longwave eastern North American upper TROF but the passage of this feature also looks far enough west at this time to preclude pcpn chances but should set us up to keep the hot temps away as we reach the doorstep of September. Otherwise, the big story here will be a taste of early autumn with daytime max temps around 80 with lo humidity and nighttime mins in the 50s. TES && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017 Showers and thunderstorms will continue over southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois this afternoon along an outflow boundary left over from last night's thunderstorm complex. Expect VFR conditions outside of thunderstorms this afternoon. Should see storms diminish during the early evening with VFR continuing tonight. Another complex of storms is likely to develop over Iowa tonight and these storms could push another outflow boundary south to near the I-70 corridor tomorrow. This boundary could be another focus for storms late Monday morning into the afternoon much as is occurring today. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: Expect VFR flight conditions to prevail through the period at Lambert. Thunderstorms south of the terminal along the outflow boundary which passed through this morning should stay south...although I cannot rule out some isolated storms in the vicinity this afternoon. Another complex of storms is likely to develop over Iowa tonight and these storms could push another outflow boundary south to near the I-70 corridor tomorrow. Current thinking is that the boundary will be in the vicinity of the terminal between 17-19Z Monday. Carney && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && $$ WFO LSX  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMTR 171150 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 450 AM PDT Thu Aug 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS...A gradual inland warming trend can be expected through late week as high pressure builds over the region. Overnight and morning clouds will also be common, especially near the coast and in the adjacent valleys. && .DISCUSSION...as of 4:14 AM PDT Thursday...Skies are clear thus far over most of Napa county, parts of the East Bay and South Bay, San Benito and interior Monterey counties while stratus and fog blanket the bays and the rest of the coast early this morning. The marine layer depth is holding steady at 2,000 feet. The marine inversion is fairly well developed and further strengthening occurs today into Saturday as increasing subsidence in advance of a 594 decameter closed mid-upper level high centered approx 700 miles west of the Bay Area produces large scale sinking and adiabatic warming. Thermal ridging coincides with geopotential height ridging over NorCal today into at least the first part of the weekend, and per most recent NAM model output warming becomes focused over inland valleys and hills especially over the Bay Area counties, and in particular over the North Bay Friday and Saturday. 925 mb level temperatures reach 28C over North Bay tonight and then 30C Friday night meaning temperatures in the North Bay Hills and Mountains will most likely hover in the lower to middle 80s all night as the marine layer becomes increasingly squashed under high pressure. With this in mind, am not having a whole lot of confidence in daytime maximum temperature guidance especially for North Bay and East Bay areas Friday and Saturday; 90s to near 100 will probably be more common even closer to the bays as the marine layer becomes increasingly compressed. Eventually an active mid latitude zonal jet stream crossing the lower 48 buckles ever so slightly causing a weak and slowly SW moving upper level trough to form over the west coast and east Pacific by late this weekend into early next week. Model output has been consistent with showing lower to mid level thermal ridging weakening over the forecast area while this trough develops, however with a solidly strong position to start there'll still be remnants of it to persisting causing the marine layer to persist Sunday into Monday. At the same time much drier 925 mb RHs sweep in from the northwest over the weekend probably mixing into the marine based clouds with a tendency for lower level winds, and possibly surface winds to go from onshore to having a weak southerly component. The question is how will all of this influence the marine layer early next week? It's just a guess that there could be an earlier than usual clearing Monday morning. For mid-late next week, a very deep low pressure area develops over the Gulf of Alaska. The ECMWF, GFS, GEM have been lean toward weak long-wave troughing over the west coast. The southern extent of the Gulf of Alaska low arrives as a trough bringing more pronounced cooling and increasing onshore winds. Coastal drizzle is a possibility in a deepening or even possibly a fully mixed out marine layer. && .AVIATION...As of 4:50 AM PDT Thursday...Building east Pacific basin ridge continues to compress marine layer this morning. Fort Ord Profiler shows a top of approximately 1800 feet with a base around 800 feet, while the cloud thickness satellite imagery is estimated to be around 1000 feet. Latest GOESR nighttime microphysics imagery shows the stratus deck rapidly expanding across the San Francisco and Monterey Bay areas early this morning. Expect to see these clouds continue to thicken up and expand through dawn before quickly mixing out between 16-17Z. Marine layer will continue to compress tonight with slightly lower CIGS and less thickness overall. Light winds today, increasing tomorrow. Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR cigs through sunrise, then dissipating between 15-16Z. Light northerly morning winds shifting to become breezy and out of the west by the afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR cigs through 17-18Z. IFR cigs possible tonight beginning as early as 02-03Z. && .MARINE...as of 04:43 AM PDT Thursday...Light variable winds through the day as an east Pacific ridge builds inland to the north while a weak trough lingers just to the south. Expect increasing northwest winds beginning late tomorrow and lasting through the weekend as the ridge strengthens further. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tday...SCA...SF Bay from 1 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: Canepa AVIATION: DRP MARINE: DRP Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, twitter, and youtube at: www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KLWX 170127 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 927 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the region will slowly move east off the coast tonight. A warm front will move northward Thursday into Thursday night followed by a cold front that should pass through the region Friday night. Weak high pressure will build into the area over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Weak stalled front remains stretched west to east across the middle of the forecast area. Isolated showers have been forming in this zone, although a general dissipating trend is expected to continue as nocturnal stability increases. Sharp inversion around 14kft (below the freezing level) on the 00Z IAD sounding explains why no lightning has been observed. Overnight, warm advection will develop aloft, resulting in an increase in mid-level clouds, but perhaps not until late. Thus questions remain about low clouds and fog. The NAM has definitely be the most pessimistic model in terms of both, while the GFS only suggests some clouds between 5-7kft. Considered SREF and NARRE probs (which are low for significantly reduced visibility) and thus kept the flavor of the forecast similar, with patchy fog in the typical prone locations. Dew points suggest lows will bottom out in the mid 60s to low 70s. May need to adjust up a little, especially in areas of thicker clouds and to the south of the stalled boundary. Boundary will slowly move northward back across the area during the day Thursday. PW's will surge significantly, with values likely to be above 2 inches by late afternoon. A weak shortwave and vort max will also cross the region. However, cloud cover will be abundant, limiting CAPE availability somewhat. The result in soundings is a skinny CAPE profile, more suggestive of a heavy rain/flash flooding threat than a severe threat, but the latter can't be completely ruled out given around 25 knots of shear. The best overlap of shear and instability will be in the northwestern quadrant of the area...with the highest chances of storms in general near and west of the Blue Ridge. With the clouds, temps should end up a little cooler than Wednesday, but still a very warm and sticky day. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... After the trough/max passes and insolation wanes, expect precipitation to wind down during the evening, but with a very moist environment, a few showers may linger. With the clouds and high humidity, lows will stay very high, with 70s being widespread. Any areas that see a little clearing might see some patchy fog. Depending on the location of forcing/boundaries and available instability aloft, there could be a continuation of thunderstorms with locally heavy rain late in the night into Friday morning due to an approaching low level jet. Current model projections suggest this would be over the northeastern quadrant of the area. Friday the next cold front approaches. With more opportunity for sun early in the day and cooling aloft, CAPE should be more plentiful, with shear increasing to around 30 knots. This should result in more of a severe threat versus flash flood threat, though with PW's still over an inch and a half, any cells that train could still pose a flood risk. With more sun, highs should approach if not reach 90 in the warmer spots. Front passes across the region at night, with chance of precip rapidly declining. However, warmth and moisture at low levels will be slower to exit, with lows likely in the 70s near I-95, cooler in the mountains. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A cold front will be stalling to our southeast as a weak high pressure builds over our area on Saturday. Upper level energy could bring some showers Saturday night, with dryness returning on Sunday. High pressure moves offshore as the front slowly pushes away from us and stall over the Carolinas Sunday into Monday. Southerly flow will advect humidity into our area with increasing temperatures into Monday. A pressure trough could enhance afternoon showers and thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday. A cold front will approach from the west on Wednesday with additional showers and thunderstorms possible. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s... some 90s and 70s at higher elevations. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... It looks like any remaining showers near a stalled front will avoid the terminals. There certainly are a range of solutions regarding cigs/vsby overnight. NAM has been the most pessimistic with moisture overrunning with widespread IFR or lower, while the GFS only suggest clouds between 5-7kft. Given low IFR probs in the NARRE and SREF, have kept flavor of previous forecast with MVFR at IAD, MRB, and CHO. One caveat to the forecast: if low clouds do develop, they may take some time to lift Thursday morning, until a warm front can lift to the north. Main concern Thursday and Friday will be thunderstorms, mostly during the afternoon and early evening hours, which could result in brief intervals of IFR cigs and vis, along with gusty winds. VFR conditions expected Saturday into Monday, with short periods of sub-VFR conditions Saturday night and maybe Monday afternoon due to possible showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA at present, with variable wind directions due to a stalled front as well as isolated showers which have produced outflow boundaries. Southerly winds should develop Thursday morning. An approaching cold front later Thursday into Friday looks likely to bring southerly channeling to the bay and lower Potomac. SCA raised starting late Thursday and likely will need to be extended through Friday. Other marine concern will be thunderstorms each of the next two days, with gusty winds a concern. Mainly dry conditions expected Saturday into Monday, with periods of showers and thunderstorms possibly developing Saturday night and Monday afternoon. Wind gusts are expected to stay below the small craft advisory threshold. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Anomalies are around a half foot tonight, which will keep water levels below flood stage. A return of southerly winds will bring rising anomalies back to the region on Thursday, with potential minor flooding at sensitive sites by Thursday afternoon/evening and continuing into Friday. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Thursday to 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ533-534-537-541-543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCM NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM SHORT TERM...RCM LONG TERM...IMR AVIATION...ADS/IMR/RCM MARINE...ADS/IMR/RCM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ADS/RCM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KPHI 020016 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 816 PM EDT Tue Aug 1 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will push offshore Thursday. A cold front will approach from the west on Friday and move through the region on Saturday. High pressure will build in for the end of the weekend and into early next week. There is a chance that the cold front to our south will retreat northward as a warm front on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Scattered shower and tstm activity on the decrease now with the loss of daytime heating. Several FLS statements and a couple FFW were issued earlier as the storms were barely moving along. The FFWs were issued in Carbon and Philadelphia counties of PA and in NJ the adjacent (to Philadelphia) counties of Burlington and Camden. Radar was indicating over 2 inch per hour plus rates with some of the storms. Skies will become mostly clear overnight after the convective debris clouds diminish. Tonight... After storms probably die out...Fair. light or calm wind. Dense fog patches where it rained this afternoon evening and prime focus is north of I78. Forecast basis was 50 50 blended 12z/1 GFS/NAM MOS guidance. Lows tonight 1 to 7 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Leftover boundary reemerges near I80 in the afternoon and probably forces increased convection as compared to this afternoon. TT in the lower 50s combined with increased 0-6Km shear...still only 25 kt, but possibly enough to allow not only slow moving gully washers in 1.5" PWAT (see NAM for max qpf bullseye- am not seeing convective qpf be much greater than what the nam is advertising...ie when i see NAM qpf bullseye, I sort of know what to expect on max qpf though placement or timing might be in error), but also isolated small hailers and G35-40kt. So...a very warm humid day with more skycover than we had today. Max temps temps 1 to 6F above normal. FCST basis: 12z/1 GFS/NAM 50 50 blended MOS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Overview...The period starts with surface high pressure still in control and an approaching cold front across the Great Lakes. The front is expected to slow on Thursday as low pressure spins up over the Upper Mississippi River. This low will slowly track into the Great Lakes region Thursday night into Friday and pull a cold front across the Ohio Valley. The low will move northeast into Quebec Friday night and by daybreak Saturday, the cold front will be knocking on our door. As of now, the cold front will move through Saturday. The front will be well offshore on Sunday with high pressure building in across the region. Surface high pressure is forecast to remain in control on Monday and Tuesday. But the question is how far the cold front will retreat northward as a warm front. This will directly affect our sensible weather. Temperatures...For comparison, normals for PHL are 87 and 69 at the start of the period. Temperatures will be slightly above normal on Thursday and Friday, near normal on Saturday, and below normal behind the cold front Sunday into Monday. Tuesday looks to be at or below normal, but is dependent on what happens with the retreating warm front. Precipitation...A chance of showers and thunderstorms exists Wednesday night, mainly north and west of the PA Turnpike. That area will expand south and east on Thursday into the coastal plain. POPS, once again, will be highest north of the PA Turnpike. The chance of showers and Thunderstorms will persist through Friday and Saturday as just about everywhere is fair game for convection with the approach and passage of the cold front. Attm, we'll dry things out Saturday night and hope to salvage a nice, precipitation- free Sunday. Low confidence on Monday and Tuesday at this point. Precipitation chances will be dependent on the return of the possible warm front. Winds...Benign winds are expected throughout the forecast period, except in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. The seabreeze should penetrate inland on Thursday and Friday, be more localized Saturday, and return inland Sunday through Tuesday. Impacts...Outside of some isolated to scattered stronger thunderstorms associated with the approaching cold front (wind and brief heavy rain), the probability for widespread hazardous weather is rather low. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR. Light wind. Patchy MVFR fog may develop after 06Z mostly outside of the urban corridor. At this point, the TAF sites with the highest risk of fog development are KABE, KRDG, and KMIV. LIFR fog probable near I-80 later tonight where it rained this afternoon. Also, probably KPNE where some rain occurred earlier. Wednesday...VFR. Light south to southwest flow. Scattered mostly afternoon/evening thunderstorms are expected sub-VFR conditions possible, mainly from KPHL and points north and west. Heavy rain and wind gust 35 kt possible and possibly small hail, especially near I-78. Outlook... Wednesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR. Southeast to south winds around 10 kts or less, except 10 to 15 kts on Thursday and Friday. A chance for afternoon/evening showers or thunderstorms each day with sub-VFR conditions possible, mainly from KPHL and points north and west on Wednesday evening and Thursday and expanding across all terminals on Friday. Early morning fog possible Thursday and Friday at our climatologically favored sites. Saturday...VFR, but with more widespread MVFR conditions expected in showers and thunderstorms. Winds will start from the southwest and end the day with west or northwest. General speeds will be in the 10 to 15 kt range. Stronger gusts possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Winds and seas will stay below small craft advisory conditions through Wednesday. A few gusts around 15 kt are possible this afternoon across the northern NJ Atlantic coastal waters. Outlook... Wednesday night through Friday morning...Sub-SCA conditions are expected to continue through this period. Friday afternoon through Friday night...Sub-SCA conditions. But winds could approach 20 kts across the near-shore waters off of northern Ocean and Monmouth counties during the afternoon and evening hours as the NY Bight jet fires up. Seas will respond. Saturday...Sub-SCA conditions are expected. Southwest winds to start the day and west to northwest to finish. General speeds are forecast to be 20 kts or less with the frontal passage, but higher gusts possible in and near thunderstorms. Sunday...Sub-SCA conditions expected. West to northwest winds 15 kts or less. Rip Currents... Low risk through Wednesday Again LOW does not mean NO risk. SE swell of 1-2 ft at 8 seconds should persist with again a southerly afternoon wind flow, maybe slightly stronger than that of this afternoon, but still not imposing. Long range: unclear at this time when we'll get back to a moderate or greater risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents. AWARENESS: We cannot overemphasize the danger of swimming alone, at unguarded areas. Too risky, especially for weaker swimmers. Many of us may overestimate our swimming ability. Additionally, often bystanders are weaker and cannot save a distressed swimmer, especially without a flotation device. This is what lifeguards are about...your safety, and rescues if within their sight. One other note: On-going developing UDEL research finds that surf zone injuries caused by unexpected wave related faceplants onto the beach are significant (wave knock down onto the hard beach floor). We dont often hear about these...but some of these injuries can be a lifetime disability...spinal cord. The point: When leaving the surf zone for the beach blanket- chair...dont turn your back completely to the water. Edge out with an eye on the waves still crashing behind you. It appears in this UDEL research that steep reflective beaches promotes unexpected wave injuries. Percent of injuries ... wading 40% body surfing 26% body boarding 21% Twice as many males as females are injured...and interestingly enough there is a 6 to 1 ratio of inland beach visitors being injured as compared to the locals. The ocean is a playland but the power of water needs respect. Thank you for reading. && .CLIMATE... The July CLM's were run and posted at 443AM and no surprises from what was posted the last several days. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Kruzdlo Near Term...Drag/PO Short Term...Drag Long Term...Kruzdlo Aviation...Drag/Kruzdlo/PO Marine...Drag/Kruzdlo Climate...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KPSR 210401 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 900 PM MST Thu Jul 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... The best thunderstorm chances will be limited primarily to higher terrain communities of central and eastern Arizona through the weekend before expanding westward somewhat Monday. While some thunderstorms could affect a few lower elevation areas, coverage and intensity will be less than the past week. And despite the reduction in thunderstorm activity, temperatures should remain near the seasonal average into next week. && .DISCUSSION... It's been another rather interesting day, convectively speaking, over the lower deserts east of the lower Colorado River valley. Huge upper high still in place over most of the CONUS, centered over nrn OK; weak southeast flow aloft on the western periphery of the high was present across Arizona. Moisture values remain elevated with PWAT values in Phoenix/Tucson around 1.6-1.7 inches. Surface dewpoints have not changed much, still running in the 60s across the lower central deserts. Weak disturbances continue move to the north, rotating around the high and adding support for thunderstorms. Despite the presence of the embedded disturbances, one change of note in the flow has been the decrease in the strength of the steering flow - 700-300mb mean winds have dropped below 10kt and is near calm over much of south central AZ. With very weak steering flow, storms will not move very quickly and will typically be bound to the higher terrain where they form. Storms over the deserts will pulse up and then dissipate with little or no storm-relative flow to move them along. Thus the main drivers for convection this evening have been outflow boundary interaction. We saw isolated to scattered storms form north of the CWA this afternoon, and over SE AZ this evening. Boundaries have since moved into the central deserts from the north, the northwest, the south and southeast. New storms and showers have then formed where boundaries interact. Due to cool afternoon highs (Phoenix only reached 103), instability was lowered. Very moist profile in the low layers (as seen in the 00z RAOBs) limited potential for strong outflows due to poor evaporational cooling). All this combines to limit both strength of convection and their corresponding outflow. All this said, previous forecasts underplayed the areal coverage of storms in the lower deserts this evening and have been updated to show 10-20 POPs over much of the lower desert thru midnight. The storms that have developed have proven to be garden-variety, typically well below severe levels. Due to the high moisture, locally heavy rains have occurred but we have yet to see amounts needed for flash flooding. We have issued a couple of SPS and FLS products to cover the evening convection and do not expect further intensification of convection overnight. Will continue to monitor... .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Numerous MCV's continue to float around the SW Conus this afternoon within a weakening flow pattern characterized by a pronounced easterly wave lifting north through NW New Mexico and a more subtle anti-cyclone over southern/southwest AZ. Objective analysis already shows H2 jet winds turning westerly across the CWA in response to the aforementioned easterly wave ejecting to the northeast and prevailing strong jet core cutting through central CA/NV. As a result, divergence fields are lifting into northern AZ, as well as developing over far SE Arizona left in the void of the departing easterly wave. The net result later this afternoon will be more confluent flow over the forecast area largely unsupportive for better convective complex organization and sustenance. Adding to the reduced thunderstorm activity (at least compared to the past week) is weaker outflow boundaries given the moist environment and lower T/Td spreads. While distinct outflows are likely to form with higher terrain storms and flow downhill, cold pools will likely be more shallow and probably insufficient to spark strong newer updrafts. Aside from showers already building along the typical terrain features of central AZ, Gila County is most under the gun for storms and locally heavy rain through early evening. Convective activity may be very muted Friday as the combination of confluence aloft and stronger anti-cyclonic subsidence in the midlevels spreads through the forecast area. Naturally, a few storms will likely form over the mountains, yet steering flow would deflect any storms away from the bulk of the CWA. It's probably a better bet that very little of the area experiences rain Friday, and have really limited much in the way of POPs to terrain areas east of Phoenix Friday afternoon/evening. Through the weekend, midlevel flow reconfigures slightly with the center of the H5 anti-cyclone becoming established over southern Utah resulting in northeast flow into central and southern AZ. However as this happens, there is no change in the mostly unsupportive westerly jet winds, so thunderstorm activity may struggle somewhat to maintain integrity trying to propagate into lower elevations (not to mention outflow boundaries that may still be weaker than experienced earlier in the monsoon season). Ensemble probabilities are not very optimistic about any widespread storms over the weekend, and its look more like a typical areal and temporal monsoon storm coverage. Monday through Wednesday... A transition may begin through next week with a potential turn to a more southwesterly component to the flow and a gradual drying trend. However, there is significant uncertainty in this trend as flow may hold at a southerly component with lower level trajectories still from the SE and importing moisture. At some point next week, there will likely be a shortwave partially absorbed in the southerly flow and supportive for organized storms. Pinpointing such a day this far in advance is fruitless, and have continued with modest POPs for the time being. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: Earlier we were not expecting convection into the greater Phoenix area due to very weak steering flow confining storms to the higher terrain. However, outflow boundaries proved stronger and more persistent than expected; they have moved into the area from the northwest, north, south and southeast and have allowed isolated showers/storms to form and affect the TAF sites. Variable winds up to 25 kt have resulted due to various merging boundaries. Have updated TAFs to add VCTS this evening and even mentioned TSRA earlier at KDSL. Expect isolated convection affecting the TAFs thru around 05z this evening before dissipating and leaving SCT-BKN mid to high decks which will persist into the morning hours. Expect less convection in the central deserts/greater Phoenix area tomorrow due to continued weak and somewhat unfavorable steering winds and a slightly more stable environment. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No convection expected in the western deserts for the next 24 hours as the atmosphere remains relatively stable with very weak winds aloft. Will keep TAFs short as any cloud decks will typically be few- sct with bases mostly aoa 12k feet. Winds continue to favor the SE at KIPL and the south at KBLH with speeds below 15kt. No real aviation concerns over the western deserts or the TAF sites thru Friday evening. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Sunday through Thursday: Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue next week, although the most concentrated storms will be confined to the higher elevations north and east of Phoenix. Lower elevations of Arizona could still see some storms, but less coverage than the past week while SE CA will struggle to receive any rainfall. Otherwise, minimum afternoon humidity levels will remain generally around 20- 40% range with good to excellent overnight recovery. Typical summertime breezes can be expected except near thunderstorms where erratic gusty winds will be likely. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, Twitter, and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...CB PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MO/AJ AVIATION...CB FIRE WEATHER...MO/Wilson  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KLMK 201625 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 1225 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 ...Updated Forecast and Aviation Discussions... .Forecast Update... Issued at 1222 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 The MCS located over the lower Great Lakes has continued to weaken. With lower cloud tops and thinning cloud thicknesses, ambient temperatures are expected to continue to rise into the mid to upper 90s, peaking out around 21Z. The trailing band of showers should continue to deteriorate by mid afternoon, leaving the chance of rain for the mid afternoon to be very small. Issued at 955 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 After an early look at this morning's guidance and the expected temperatures and heat indices for Friday, there is enough confidence to go with a Heat Advisory for areas mainly along and west of I-65 across central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Peak heat indices will range from 105 to 108 during the afternoon and early evening hours and the greatest threat will be found in urbanized areas such as Louisville metro. Confidence to continue the advisory through Saturday isn't high enough yet so will continue to look at the latest guidance this morning. As far as today goes, convective debris clouds associated with a decaying MCS over the lower Great Lakes will dive southeast through the lower Ohio Valley. This may hold high temperatures down a few degrees from the current forecast, but if clouds do thin or don't make it all the way through central Kentucky, then temperatures should easily climb into the 90s based on the latest guidance. For now, will maintain current forecast but later updates may need to adjust this as well. && .Short Term (Now through Friday)... Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Upper ridging centered over the southern Plains continues to build into the Ohio Valley, and will match or exceed the hottest temps of any of the last few summers. Main challenge is when and where Heat Advisory thresholds may be breached. Not too concerned about convection with 700mb temps at 11-12C to keep a lid on things, but Thursday night convection to our north could push an outflow boundary into the Ohio Valley to focus isolated storms along/north of Interstate 64 on Fri. Temps finally managed to overachieve on Wednesday, and both 850mb temp and 1000-850mb thickness progs suggest Thursday could run 3-4 degrees warmer. That puts most of the area in the lower 90s, with mid 90s possible across parts of south-central Kentucky and upper 90s in urban Louisville. Dewpoint forecast is toned down slightly from most guidance given how the boundary layer mixed out Wednesday, but is still enough to push max heat index values to 101-104 degrees west of I-65. Heat wave will peak on Friday as the upper ridging is the strongest. Temps may be only a degree or two warmer, but dewpoints could rise into the mid 70s, and that would push the heat index solidly into advisory territory, especially west of I-65. However, in coordination with surrounding offices, will hold off on any headlines for at least one more forecast cycle as it remains a lower- confidence dewpoint forecast. Will continue to highlight the heat and humidity via Special Weather Statements and web/social media avenues. .Long Term (Friday Night through Wednesday)... Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Upper ridging starts to break down on Saturday, allowing for a bit more cloud cover and isolated showers and storms, especially east of Interstate 65. Temps look a couple degrees cooler than Friday, but heat indices will still top 100 degrees across most of the forecast area. By Sunday a respectable upper trof swings through the Great Lakes and pushes a cold front slowly into the Ohio Valley. Expect scattered showers and storms Sunday into Monday, but weakly sheared environment doesn't support much organization. Canadian surface high settles into the Great Lakes for Tue-Wed, knocking our temps below climo and dewpoints into the lower 60s, providing a respite from the oppressive heat and humidity. && .Aviation...(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1223 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Quiet aviation weather today, predominantly VFR with scattered- broken high clouds. Expect clouds to decrease this evening with perhaps a small chance at light, brief br at BWG/LEX tomorrow morning. Westerly winds will remain under 7 kts today backing to the SSW late tonight into tomorrow. A chance for isld convection may return to LEX/SDF tomorrow afternoon. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Friday for INZ076>078-083-084-089>092. KY...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Friday for KYZ023>031-034-038-045-053-061>063-070>074. && $$ Update...ZT/Wooton Short Term........RAS Long Term.........RAS Aviation...AMS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KJAX 172338 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 738 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017 .UPDATE...Large area of showers/t-storms this afternoon gradually winding down. Some late afternoon partial heating in our western- most counties westward allowing a few showers to redevelop. This may continue a few more hours in our wrn/nrn counties...and will maintain low POP there...but believe HRRR model showing another round of widespread showers moving over the area later this evening is erroneous. Latest guidance suggests there may be some delay during morning before showers/t-storms develop and work across forecast area. Have adjusted hourly POP/weather grids to reflect this. Nevertheless expect another active t-storm afternoon with upper trough over the area. With slight cooling aloft and slightly steeper mid-level lapse rates...strong storms with hail and strong downburst winds are anticipated. && .AVIATION...Generally VFR conditions expected. Included some MVFR fog KVQQ/KGNV...possible where significant rainfall occurred...but SREF shows only very low MVFR/IFR probabilities. Maintained 30 PROB group TSRA in TAFs for tomorrow afternoon...likely to be replaced with TEMPO group in later TAF issuances. Winds generally light...but will be strong and gusty in any TSRA that form. && .MARINE...Surface ridge will remain south of the area through the week with a light southwesterly flow becoming southeasterly each afternoon and evening due to the Atlantic sea breeze. Seas will generally remain in the 2 to 4 foot range with winds and seas below Small Craft Exercise Caution criteria. Rip Currents: Lows risk through Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 90 73 93 / 20 60 20 30 SSI 74 87 78 89 / 10 50 20 30 JAX 73 91 76 92 / 10 60 20 40 SGJ 74 88 75 89 / 20 50 20 40 GNV 72 91 73 92 / 20 60 20 60 OCF 73 90 74 92 / 20 60 20 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$ Wolf/Nelson/McGinnis  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KCHS 090741 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 341 AM EDT Sun Jul 9 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will drop into the area today before dissipating. The area will then remain situated between an inland trough and Atlantic high pressure for the rest of the week before another cold front approaches early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 320 AM: Latest IR satellite indicated SCT to BKN high clouds over the CWA, developing along and east of H5 trough. The satellite water vapor channel indicated a fairly uniform band of moisture across the Atlantic coast south to the Gulf of Mexico. The W/V loop indicated that the western edge of the moisture was slowly pushing east across Piedmont of the Carolinas and the foothills of GA. GFS simulated W/V indicates that mid level dry air may reach the Coast Plain from the NW this afternoon. At the sfc, a weak cold front is forecast to stall west of I-95 during the daylight hours today. Forecast soundings and plain view of the NAM12 and GFS indicate that conditions will begin to destabilize from the Atlantic early this morning, spreading inland through the morning. By early afternoon, normalized CAPE values should range from 0.1 to 0.2 m/s2 across the CWA. Deep convection will likely develop initially along the border of the moist and dry mid level air this morning into the afternoon, then along sea breeze during the mid to late afternoon. PW values are forecast to range from 2-2.25 inches with warm cloud thickness around 11 kft. Drifting storms may produce periods of torrential to heavy downpours. Although DCAPE values are forecast to remain less than 1000 J/kg, one or two strong to severe wind gusts are possible. High temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 80s to the low 90s. Tonight, the stationary front should gradually dissipate, leaving a broad trough over the CWA overnight. Convection during the afternoon and evening may work over the environment, resulting in a slow reduction of deep convection. I will forecast decreasing PoPs during the night, but generally remaining with CHC values. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... General troughing will give way to more ridging toward mid week as the Atlantic high builds westward across the Southeast U.S. In addition, abundant moisture and some shortwave energy are expected, mainly into Tuesday. This pattern will result in above normal rain chances through Tuesday with more normal chances Wednesday. High temperatures will generally be in the lower 90s for most locales, although some mid 90s are possible Wednesday. High humidity will yield heat heat indices near 100 inland each day through Tuesday and up near 105 degrees Wednesday (mainly in GA). Low temperatures should be above normal in the mid 70s for most places. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Atlantic high pressure will prevail through Friday before another upper trough, cold front and pre-frontal trough return next weekend. This pattern should lead to generally typical summertime weather through Thursday with increasing rain chances late in the week through the weekend. High temperatures should mostly be near to slightly above normal in the mid 90s with heat indices close to 105 degrees while low temperatures remain above normal in the mid to upper 70s. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... KCHS received a little more than a quarter of an inch around midnight. The rainfall lowered the KCHS dewpoint depression to around 3 degrees, with the dewpoint of 72 degrees. Debris clouds will likely thin gradually through the pre dawn period. There is potential for ground fog or brief fog if sky cover totally erodes. However, upstream high clouds should slide east, filling in voids left by the debris clouds. I will not mention fog at this time. The primary forecast challenge will be the thunderstorm placement and timing. Water vapor loop indicated that the western edge of a band of moisture was pushing into the Piedmont. Based on the current satellite trends, the drier air should reach the western Coastal Plain during the late afternoon hours. At the sfc, the cold front is expected to push east from the Midlands. Deep convection should develop along the leading edge of the mid level dry and sfc front, with storm motions from the NW. TAFs will feature SSW winds, peaking in the afternoon around 10 kts. I will include a TEMPO from 20Z to 1Z for TSRA, MVFR vis/cigs, and gusty winds. Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions at times through the period, mainly from afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... A weak cold front is expected to approach the GA/SC coast this afternoon, becoming nearly stationary inland. The pressure gradient across the marine zones will remain weak through tonight. Winds should remain from the SSW between 10-15 kts. Wave heights are forecast to range 2-4 feet through tonight. Conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Coverage of thunderstorms should become scattered to numerous across the marine zone late this afternoon and evening. These storms may produce gusty winds and occasional cloud to surface lightning. Monday through Friday: The area will remain between inland troughing and Atlantic high pressure. This will maintain a moderate southerly flow through the period, enhanced at times due to the afternoon sea breeze and nighttime surging. No Advisories are anticipated however given winds 20 knots or less and seas mainly 3 feet or less. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...NED SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...NED/RJB MARINE...NED/RJB  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 071056 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 656 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Pockets of heavy rain across east-central PA early this morning will precede the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms later this afternoon. A few lingering showers on Saturday will give way to dry weather for Sunday. The pattern looks rather unsettled next week with several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Expect temperatures to remain near early to mid July climate normals. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 7AM: IRIS/MRMS/WUNDERmap rainfall estimates show a stripe of 1-3" amounts in the last 3-6 hours from eastern Perry County across northern Dauphin County into southern Schuylkill County. Steady area of mod-hvy rain will shift to the east of the mid- lower Susq. Valley through 15z based on the latest HRRR. Some dense fog has also developed over the NW Alleghenies which should dissipate in the next few hours. Previous... Radar trends over the last few hours show a gradual uptick in coverage and intensity of showers, with the main moderate to occasionally heavy rain axis setting up along a frontal convergence zone located to the east of I-99 in between (south of) I-80 and (north of) I-76/78. This also corresponds to gradual cloud top cooling evident on the GOES-16 10.3 micron channel. Despite efficient +RA environment with 1.5-2.0 inch PW values, MRMS sfc pcpn rates are generally running between 0.25 up to 0.50 in/hr with some pockets of 1"+ rates - although these areas appear to be transient/moving. Will continue to monitor the hydro situation with some localized minor flooding not out of the question, but not we're not expecting widespread runoff issues. Any short-term minor flooding concerns will be handled with FLS or FFW if necessary. A high res model blend shows the heaviest rain ending by 15z with pcpn shifting east by 18z. The moderate to locally heavy rainfall this morning over east- central PA will precede the risk for strong to severe T'storms later this afternoon and evening. Low stratus and fog expanding over western PA per GOES-16 10.3-3.9 difference channel should give way to clearing, as surface ridging builds in behind departing shortwave. Focus will then shift toward cold front pushing southeast from the Great Lakes, with high-res models showing convection spreading southeast from the Upper OH Valley into Central PA by the late afternoon. The combination of steep mid-level lapse rates with increasing mid level flow should support risk for strong-severe storms. Showers are most likely to linger over the Alleghenies tonight into Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A stray shower is possible on Saturday but overall theme will be drying out over the weekend. Temperatures will cool off a few degrees from Sat-Sun but overall anticipate a pleasant and mainly rain-free weekend with high pressure in control. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The mean flow is fcst to become more zonal into next week. The medium range guidance shows a frontal boundary to the north of the area early next week eventually sinking south and becoming wavy/quasi-stationary. Pcpn should focus along this boundary and offer several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Several impulses that could help modulate convective pcpn are difficult to time and therefore this period will feature daily 30-50 pct pcpn probs - with refinements to come at shorter ranges. Temperatures and humidity should trend higher through midweek. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Widespread area of showers and rain continue across most of Central Pennsylvania as of 06z. Notable clearing/drying noted moving into northeast Pennsylvania, where KBFD has nearly cleared out. However, this brief respite will quickly be replaced by fog and low stratus formation in the next few hours. Anticipated significant lowering of ceilings and visibilities is quickly overspreading the region. While there may be a bit of a break, even to VFR conditions as the rain tapers off from west to east (like KBFD) expect rapid fog and lower ceiling reformation. High resolution models continue to suggest formation of some heavy clusters of rain overnight. Although advertised most of the evening without coming to fruition, have included the heavy rain possibility over eastern airfields around 09z - 13z. Brief ridging will build in behind the rain, and with west- northwest winds, should see a return to VFR conditions by mid morning. However, additional batches of showers and thunderstorms are slated to develop Friday - first in the northwest, then migrating south and east. Chances of rain are lowest in the southeast and have kept mention of precipitation out of these areas for the afternoon. Cold frontal passage will occur early Saturday, however post frontal risk of showers will again be possible Saturday afternoon. .OUTLOOK... Fri...MVFR/IFR ceilings AM...trending to VFR by afternoon. PM TSRA impacts possible especially western 1/2. Sat...Sub-VFR ceilings possible western 1/3 AM. Otherwise VFR with isolated to scattered SHRA. Sun...Patchy morning fog, then VFR. Mon...Mainly VFR, but with isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA. Tue...Mainly VFR, but with scattered SHRA/TSRA restrictions. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Jung  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 070927 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 527 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Pockets of heavy rain across east-central PA early this morning will precede the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms later this afternoon. A few lingering showers on Saturday will give way to dry weather for Sunday. The pattern looks rather unsettled next week with several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Expect temperatures to remain near early to mid July climate normals. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Radar trends over the last few hours show a gradual uptick in coverage and intensity of showers, with the main moderate to occasionally heavy rain axis setting up along a frontal convergence zone located to the east of I-99 in between (south of) I-80 and (north of) I-76/78. This also corresponds to gradual cloud top cooling evident on the GOES-16 10.3 micron channel. Despite efficient +RA environment with 1.5-2.0 inch PW values, MRMS sfc pcpn rates are generally running between 0.25 up to 0.50 in/hr with some pockets of 1"+ rates - although these areas appear to be transient/moving. Will continue to monitor the hydro situation with some localized minor flooding not out of the question, but not we're not expecting widespread runoff issues. Any short-term minor flooding concerns will be handled with FLS or FFW if necessary. A high res model blend shows the heaviest rain ending by 15z with pcpn shifting east by 18z. The moderate to locally heavy rainfall this morning over east- central PA will precede the risk for strong to severe T'storms later this afternoon and evening. Low stratus and fog expanding over western PA per GOES-16 10.3-3.9 difference channel should give way to clearing, as surface ridging builds in behind departing shortwave. Focus will then shift toward cold front pushing southeast from the Great Lakes, with high-res models showing convection spreading southeast from the Upper OH Valley into Central PA by the late afternoon. The combination of steep mid-level lapse rates with increasing mid level flow should support risk for strong-severe storms. Showers are most likely to linger over the Alleghenies tonight into Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A stray shower is possible on Saturday but overall theme will be drying out over the weekend. Temperatures will cool off a few degrees from Sat-Sun but overall anticipate a pleasant and mainly rain-free weekend with high pressure in control. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The mean flow is fcst to become more zonal into next week. The medium range guidance shows a frontal boundary to the north of the area early next week eventually sinking south and becoming wavy/quasi-stationary. Pcpn should focus along this boundary and offer several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Several impulses that could help modulate convective pcpn are difficult to time and therefore this period will feature daily 30-50 pct pcpn probs - with refinements to come at shorter ranges. Temperatures and humidity should trend higher through midweek. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Widespread area of showers and rain continue across most of Central Pennsylvania as of 06z. Notable clearing/drying noted moving into northeast Pennsylvania, where KBFD has nearly cleared out. However, this brief respite will quickly be replaced by fog and low stratus formation in the next few hours. Anticipated significant lowering of ceilings and visibilities is quickly overspreading the region. While there may be a bit of a break, even to VFR conditions as the rain tapers off from west to east (like KBFD) expect rapid fog and lower ceiling reformation. High resolution models continue to suggest formation of some heavy clusters of rain overnight. Although advertised most of the evening without coming to fruition, have included the heavy rain possibility over eastern airfields around 09z - 13z. Brief ridging will build in behind the rain, and with west- northwest winds, should see a return to VFR conditions by mid morning. However, additional batches of showers and thunderstorms are slated to develop Friday - first in the northwest, then migrating south and east. Chances of rain are lowest in the southeast and have kept mention of precipitation out of these areas for the afternoon. Cold frontal passage will occur early Saturday, however post frontal risk of showers will again be possible Saturday afternoon. .OUTLOOK... Fri...MVFR/IFR ceilings AM...trending to VFR by afternoon. PM TSRA impacts possible especially western 1/2. Sat...Sub-VFR ceilings possible western 1/3 AM. Otherwise VFR with isolated to scattered SHRA. Sun...Patchy morning fog, then VFR. Mon...Mainly VFR, but with isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA. Tue...Mainly VFR, but with scattered SHRA/TSRA restrictions. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Jung  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 070523 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 123 AM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Heavy rain potential across south-central and southeastern portions of the area early this morning will precede the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms later this afternoon. A few lingering showers on Saturday should give way to dry weather for Sunday. Expect temperatures to remain near climate normals into next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/... While radar trends have certainly been less than impressive since 0z, there is a pretty strong consensus among the high resolution models in depicting a gradual uptick in coverage and intensity of showers between 06-12z across south-central and southeast PA. The overall evolution is a complex one with upstream shortwave/remnant MCV interacting with low level convergence axis -- in a efficient heavy rain environment characterized by anomalously high PW air and tall/skinny CAPE profiles. So confidence has increased in pockets of +RA developing however there is still uncertainty in the placement. HIRES model consensus favors max rainfall amounts to the north of FF watch area so will allow it to expire at 06z and handle any short-term flooding issues with FLS or FFW should they be necessary. The high res guidance shows the heaviest rain ending and pulling to the east by 15z. && .SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Early showers over the eastern half of the forecast area should give way to clearing skies, as surface ridging builds in behind departing shortwave. Focus will then shift toward a cold front approaching from the Grt Lks late in the day. Model soundings indicating CAPEs near 1000 J/kg along with increasing mid level flow by afternoon across western Pa, where a few stronger PM storms are possible. Partly sunny skies and GEFS mean 8h temps near 16C should translate to max temps mostly in the low to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cold front passage early Saturday will deliver a shot of cooler air aloft and more comfortable/less humid air at the surface. Despite decreasing deep layer moisture with PW values going below normal, models show at least a slight chance for a few (instability) showers mainly over the NW Alleghenies on Saturday. However, the theme this weekend will be toward decreasing POPs/drier weather/lower humidity after a muggy and unsettled end to the week. Dry weather should continue on Sunday with a gradual uptick in showers/Tstorms through early next week. Temperatures remain near average with slight cool-down over the weekend. Large upper level ridge over the inter mountain west will persist well into the upcoming week. That ridge will dictate the pattern through the period as weather systems stream down off of it into the mid Atlantic region. Decent PWATS should follow along a trough that should bring in a decent chance for showers Tuesday. A quasi stationary boundary then sets up across the southern border of PA so there will be chance POPS possible through the southern half of PA the second half of the week. && .AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Southeast flow north of a frontal boundary near the southern PA border will keep low clouds, periods of rain and showers, and areas of fog across the region overnight. MVFR to IFR visibilities and ceilings will persist overnight into 12z-14z Friday morning. Weak ridging will provide an improvement to VFR conditions across the region by late morning/early Friday afternoon. An approaching cold front will introduce showers and possible thunderstorms again, mainly during the mid to late afternoon Friday. Cold frontal passage will occur early Saturday, however post frontal risk of showers will again be possible Saturday afternoon. .OUTLOOK... Fri...MVFR/IFR ceilings AM...trending to VFR by afternoon. PM TSRA impacts possible especially western 1/3. Sat...Sub-VFR ceilings possible western 1/3 AM. Otherwise VFR with isolated to scattered SHRA. Sun...Patchy morning fog, then VFR. Mon...Mainly VFR, but with isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA. Tue...Mainly VFR, but with scattered SHRA/TSRA restrictions. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT early this morning for PAZ033>036-064-065. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Ceru/Steinbugl AVIATION...Jung  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCAR 182000 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 400 PM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Very humid airmass will remain across the region through Tuesday before a cold front begins to approach the region tomorrow afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms are expected with localized heavy rainfall Monday afternoon into Tuesday moring. Afternoon showers and more comfortable air are expected for the remainder of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Humid airmass is firmly entrenched across the region with surface dewpoints into the upper 60s. Not much change expected along the coast with the warm airmass over cold water keeping the stratus and fog locked in. Sun broke for interior Maine this afternoon, question is weather the stratus deck comes back in tonight. Not expected that to happen across the interior highlands. Should remain dry tonight, except for the Northwoods where they could get a shower after midnight from a decaying cluster of thunderstorms in Quebec province. Monday still has the potential for a big weather day with the frontal boundary beginning to approach the area. Anomalous PWAT values will be firmly entrenched tomorrow, in addition to impressive warm cloud thickness, and unidirectional winds. This all leads to the potential of extremely high rainfall rates for interior Maine late tomorrow afternoon as the frontal boundary approaches. Still some spread in the evolution of the storms tomorrow, but if everything lines up correctly and we do get some good storms that train over the same region we could get some localized flash flooding. The highest threat is currently across the Central Highlands into Aroostook County, but we will see how things evolve tomorrow. A secondary threat is some severe wind gusts for the stronger cells, this all depends on how much sun we get tomorrow and if we can get well into the 80s or not. SPC still has interior Maine in a Slight risk tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Expect convection wl be ongoing at the start of the short term pd ahd of bndry. How far convection can mv into the CWA wl depend entirely on marine lyr and how far north it advances into the region on strong onshore srly flow. For the time being hv only included enhanced wording of gusty winds and small hail thru 02z Tue for northern Maine. Training cells along bndry wl hv the potentially to produce vry hvy rainfall thru a good portion of the ovrngt hrs. PW values progged to be btwn 2-4 standard deviations abv normal with PW values right arnd 1.90 inches. LLJ intensifies to btwn 40-50kts with majority of CWA being in the RRQ of H2 speed max. Upr lvl trof wl be digging into the area on Tue with srly flow contg to draw in moisture. Marginal instability along with weak lapse rates will be present, thus wl maintain chc/slgt chc thunder into Tue evng. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Vry brief s/wv ridge wl impact the CWA on Thur with only a slgt chc for showers expected. Next significant wv wl affect the region on Friday with chc for thunder in the aftn. Expect that H5 trof wl swing thru the state drg the weekend with chc for showers on Saturday bfr dropping off drg the latter half of the weekend. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: LIFR conditions will continue at KBHB over the next 24 hours due to fog and low cigs. IFR ceilings expected at KBGR with the onshore flow and low stratus continuing. Northern TAF sites have broken out, but most guidance has a low stratus deck developing again tonight. Confidence is currently low at this time, but KHUL is the most likely location for redevelopment. SHORT TERM: IFR conditions expected thru Mon night as +ra and tsra impacts all terminals. Conditions should improve to MVFR on Tue and eventually VFR Tue evening into the end of the week. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Stable layer at the ocean surface isn't allowing for the strong sw winds to reach the water surface at this time. Guidance has been over forecasting winds for the last 24 hours, decided to lower winds based off current observations. Swell is still expected to move into tonight into tomorrow with waves getting up to 8 feet for the outer coastal waters and close to 5 near the immediate coast. SCA for hazardous seas has been issued. SHORT TERM: Very stable layer will exist over the waters through mid-week. This will prevent winds from mixing to the surface and also reduce visibilities in locally dense fog at times. Seas will remain above 5 feet on the outer waters in southerly swell. && .HYDROLOGY... The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning. The area of greatest concern stretches from the Moosehead Lake region northeastward to central Aroostook County. These locations could see widespread rainfall of 1.5 to 2.5 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, especially where storm training occurs. Hilly terrain and urban areas will be most susceptible to any flash flooding. Small streams could also exit their banks, but mainstem river flooding is not anticipated. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Flash Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning for MEZ001>006-010-011-015-031-032. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Dumont Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Dumont/Farrar Marine...Dumont/Farrar Hydrology...Hastings  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KOKX 142331 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 731 PM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and seasonable as high pressure drifts east over the Atlantic south of Nova Scotia on Thursday. A warm front approaches the region Friday and moves through Saturday as low pressure tracks north of the Great Lakes. The warm front dissipates Saturday as Bermuda high pressure builds back into the region. A cold front approaches from the west Monday and passes across the area Monday night into Tuesday, then stalls just offshore. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... The forecast is on track. Only minor adjustments made to some hourly grids. Mostly clear with thin cirrus overnight. Lows are forecast close to a MOS blend. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... "Dirty" ridge over the region on Thursday. NWP soundings suggests thickening of the cirrus, but believe it won't be until late afternoon that it starts to become opaque. Thus will have a mostly sunny forecast. Clouds continue to thicken Thursday night as a shortwave approaches for the Great Lakes. Have gone with a blend of the warmer GFS and ECMWF MOS data based on subjective recent MOS performance. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Rain will be possible on Friday with an onshore flow increasing moisture plus mid-level lift shifting through the area. A warm front then approaches Friday night, maintaining chances of rain, and with the front just off to the south, areas of fog expected overnight. The front lifts through the region Saturday morning, then the atmosphere destabilizes afterward. A shower will be possible in the morning, with thunderstorm potential in the afternoon. For Sunday, a cold front will be well off to the west as low pressure tracks across the northern Great Lakes. Models also not showing much shortwave lift over here, but this may change. Will maintain slight chance to chance PoPs on Sunday, but it could turn out to be a completely dry day for many areas. High temps may need to be bumped up another 5 degrees if it turns out to be more sunny than currently forecast. The cold front approaches from the west Monday, possibly entering the forecast area by late in the day, but more likely passing through during the night. Plenty of CAPE, lift, and shear for strong TSTM potential ahead and with the front. The front may stall just offshore Tuesday morning, so will go with low chc POPs east of the city. Another cold front may then bring showers and storms to the region on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Canadian high pressure builds tonight and shifts offshore during the day on Thursday. VFR through the TAF period. Cirrus, along with few to scattered daytime CU Thursday. S/SE winds lighten tonight and back to the E/SE or simply become variable. Winds return to the SE Thursday morning and speeds increase to around 10 kt, except around 15 kt closer to the coast by afternoon. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Thursday night...VFR, with sub VFR in rain possible toward morning. .Friday-Saturday Morning...MVFR/IFR probable in rain/fog. .Saturday Afternoon...Improvement to VFR possible, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. .Saturday Night...IFR possible, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. .Sunday...Improvement to VFR possible, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. .Monday...MVFR or lower possible in showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... High pressure offshore Thursday night into Friday results in tranquil conditions under SE flow. Sub-SCA conditions prevail through Saturday night, although there is a chance that ocean seas reach 5 ft Friday and Saturday due to a building swell. A better chance of 5 ft ocean seas occurs Sunday and Monday with an increasing SW flow building wind wave heights. Gusts to 25 kt will be possible both days as well. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through Sunday. There is a chance of thunderstorms and at least minor urban/small stream flooding Monday into Tuesday morning. && .EQUIPMENT... * Meriden NOAA Weather Radio is off the air. Return to service time is unknown. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MET NEAR TERM...Tongue SHORT TERM...Tongue LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...PW MARINE...JC/Tongue HYDROLOGY...JC/Tongue EQUIPMENT...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KOKX 140602 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 202 AM EDT Wed Jun 14 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front moved south of Long Island early this Wednesday morning. High pressure will build into the area Wednesday. The high then shifts offshore Thursday night through Friday night as a warm front approaches from the southwest. The warm front is expected to move north of the area during Saturday as low pressure tracks north of the Great Lakes and Bermuda high pressure extends westward into the region. A cold front approaches from the west Monday and passes across the area Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... With increasing stability across the region overnight and scattered to isolated showers expected to move through overnight, have lowered probabilities to slight chance and removed the mention of thunder. Winds have shifted to the northwest to north as the cold front has moved south of Long Island at 04Z. The cooler and drier air is slow to move into the region and adjusted both the overnight temperatures and dew points. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... High pres builds in from the n thru Wed ngt. This will allow for clearing thru the day on Wed, with only high clouds for the aftn and nighttime. A blend of guidance, which was in good agreement, was used for temps which will be considerably cooler. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Thursday...As a ridge of high pressure moves offshore, SE winds will transport maritime polar air across the area, causing below holding normal temps from near 65 extreme east to 75 west of NYC. Thursday Night through Early Saturday...Isentropic lift will increase as a warm front approaches along with an upper lvl short wave. Mainly light rain becoming likely area wide along with fog by Friday and continuing until the front passes Sat aftn. Uncertainty with timing of warm frontal passage from SW to NE during Saturday. Daytime highs on Friday only 65 to around 70 degrees; Warmer Saturday. Sat Aftn/Eve...Chc of showers and tstms, mainly W and N of NYC with daytime heating and increasing instability as the air mass transitions to a deep maritime tropical airmass. Sunday...Can't rule out at least SCT aftn/eve TSTMs as a deepening upper lvl trough approaches. Monday...Potential for more widespread hvy showers and tstms as a cold front approaches the region with high precipitable water content. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold front continues to push south, followed by Canadian high pressure. VFR through the TAF period. A few leftover showers continue to move across portions of the CWA. These showers should end by 07z. North-Northeast winds around 10 kt or less continue overnight. Winds become easterly, then southeasterly Wednesday afternoon. Winds remain around 10 kt through the afternoon. Light and variable winds expected Wednesday night. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday night-Thursday night...VFR. .Friday-Saturday Morning...MVFR/IFR probable. .Saturday Afternoon...Improvement to VFR possible, with a chance of isolated to scattered showers and/or thunderstorms. .Saturday Night...IFR conditions possible. LLWS possible. .Sunday...Improvement to VFR possible, with a chance of isolated to scattered showers and/or thunderstorms. && .MARINE... A cold front was moving south of Long Island early this Wednesday morning and has not yet reached buoy 44025. A few showers will be possible. Updated probabilities overnight. Winds and seas will remain blw Small Craft Advisory/SCA lvls thru Wed ngt. With high pressure shifting off shore Thursday and Thursday night, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels. Friday through Saturday...Although winds and seas are forecast to remain below SCA levels, periods of rain and areas of fog may restrict vsbys to 1-3 NM. Dense Fog Advisories are possible during this time until a warm front moves northeast of the area late Saturday. Sunday...SSW winds and building seas of arnd 4 ft on the ocean with the approach of SCA levels. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected overnight through Sunday. There is a potential for heavy rain on Monday with approach of a cold front. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...GC AVIATION...BC MARINE...MET HYDROLOGY...MET  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KOKX 132209 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 609 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will pass offshore overnight. High pressure will build into the area on Wednesday. The high will shift offshore Thursday night through Friday night as a warm front approaches from the southwest. The warm front is expected to move north of the area during Saturday as low pressure tracks north of the Great Lakes and Bermuda high pressure extends westward into the region. A cold front approaches from the west Monday and passes across the area Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... LAPS indicated about 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE across the nrn tier of the cwa at 18Z. This will continue to increase thru the late aftn. DCAPE in these same areas averaged about 700 J/kg, which is also progged to increase. It should be noted that the NAM SBCAPE fields were running about a 1000 J/kg too high across the interior compared to the LAPS. SPS mesoanalysis however was very close to the NAM. Isold-sct tstms have developed over nern PA and upstate NY. They are following a sely storm motion which is consistent with the NAM modeling. As a result, will expect shwrs and tstms to increase in coverage and intensity thru the late aftn as they develop sewd. BRN indicates multicellular pulse storms favored, however interactions with outflow or sea breeze boundaries could locally enhance shear and allow for some better organization in spots. Main threat remains damaging wind gusts with the NAM indicating at least 1500 J/kg of DCAPE in the most unstable areas. The pcpn will end from n to s overnight as the cold front sags swd. The heat will otherwise continue until tstms cool things down or eve sets in. The heat advy remains in effect for nern NJ due to the 2 day criteria. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... High pres builds in from the n thru Wed ngt. This will allow for clearing thru the day on Wed, with only high clouds for the aftn and nighttime. A blend of guidance, which was in good agreement, was used for temps which will be considerably cooler. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Prepare for periods of unsettled weather Friday through Monday. Thursday...As a ridge of high pressure moves offshore, SE winds will transport maritime polar air across the area, causing below holding normal temps from near 65 extreme east to 75 west of NYC. Thursday Night through Early Saturday...Isentropic lift will increase as a warm front approaches along with an upper lvl short wave. Mainly light rain becoming likely area wide along with fog by Friday and continuing until the front passes Sat aftn. Uncertainty with timing of warm frontal passage from SW to NE during Saturday. Daytime highs on Friday only 65 to around 70 degrees; Warmer Saturday. Sat Aftn/Eve...Chc of showers and tstms, mainly W and N of NYC with daytime heating and increasing instability as the air mass transitions to a deep maritime tropical airmass. Sunday...Can't rule out at least SCT aftn/eve TSTMs as a deepening upper lvl trough approaches. Monday...Potential for more widespread hvy showers and tstms as a cold front approaches the region with high precipitable water content. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold front pushes to the S this evening, followed by Canadian high pressure building down into Wednesday afternoon. Most likely VFR through the TAF period. There is a low chance of a brief period (less than 30 minutes) of MVFR/IFR with any stronger shower or thunderstorm that moves over a terminal. The best chance for thunder this is over western terminals, have removed the VCTS from E CT/Long Island terminals as a result. Any convection should be clear of all terminals by 4z. Note that TAFs now contain VCTS as PROB30 is not permissible within 9 hours of issuance in NWS TAFs. SW-W winds with some gusts of 15-20 kt mainly at city terminals, become light and variable early this evening, then veer from the NW to NE at around 10 kt or less tonight, with non-city terminals becoming light and variable. NE winds around 10 kt or less at all terminals by mid Wednesday morning, with seabreezes expected at CT/Long Island terminals, KJFK and KEWR Wednesday afternoon. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Timing in changes in wind speed and direction could be off +/- 1-2 hours. Low chance < 30% for convection in the terminal vicinity this evening. KLGA TAF Comments: Timing in changes in wind speed and direction could be off +/- 1-2 hours. Low chance < 30% for convection in the terminal vicinity this evening. KEWR TAF Comments: Timing in changes in wind speed and direction could be off +/- 1-2 hours. Low chance < 30% for convection in the terminal vicinity. KTEB TAF Comments: Timing in changes in wind speed and direction could be off +/- 1-2 hours. Low chance < 30% for convection in the terminal vicinity this evening. KHPN TAF Comments: Timing in changes in wind speed and direction could be off +/- 1-2 hours. Low chance < 30% for convection in the terminal vicinity this evening. KISP TAF Comments: Timing in changes in wind speed and direction could be off +/- 1-2 hours. Low chance < 30% for convection in the terminal vicinity this evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday afternoon-Thursday...VFR. .Thursday night-Saturday Morning...MVFR/IFR probable. .Saturday Afternoon...Improvement to VFR possible, with a chance of isolated to scattered showers and/or thunderstorms. .Saturday Night...IFR conditions possible. .Sunday...Improvement to VFR possible, with a chance of isolated to scattered showers and/or thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Winds and seas will remain blw Small Craft Advisory/SCA lvls thru Wed ngt. Strong tstms are possible with the cold frontal passage late today and tngt which could produce winds in excess of 35 kt. With high pressure shifting off shore Thursday and Thursday night, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels. Friday through Saturday...Although winds and seas are forecast to remain below SCA levels, periods of rain and areas of fog may restrict vsbys to 1-3 NM. Dense Fog Advisories are possible during this time until a warm front moves northeast of the area late Saturday. Sunday...SSW winds and building seas of arnd 4 ft on the ocean with the approach of SCA levels. && .HYDROLOGY... Any strong tstms thru this eve could produce localized urban and poor drainage flooding. No significant hydrologic impacts are expected Wednesday through next Sunday. Late Thursday Night thru Early Sat...1/4-1/2 inch rain possible with the approach and passage of a warm front. Potential for heavy rain on Monday with approach of a cold front. && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures may be tied or broken today. Here are the records for the date: LOCATION.....RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE........ NYC.................96 (1961).............. LGA.................97 (1961)...............broken see RER JFK.................95 (1983)............... EWR.................98 (1961)...............broken see RER ISP.................92 (1988)...............broken see RER BDR.................93*(1961)............... * Also in previous years && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...Heat Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NJZ006-106-108. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET NEAR TERM...JMC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...GC AVIATION...Maloit/Tongue MARINE...JMC/GC HYDROLOGY...JMC/GC CLIMATE...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KPHI 122044 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 444 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Broad high pressure will persist across much of the eastern U.S. and the western Atlantic through Tuesday. A backdoor cold front will push southward through the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday morning, stall south of the area Thursday, and return north as a warm front next weekend. The next cold front should approach from the west early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... High pressure remains offshore of the east coast tonight, while ridging aloft remains across the east coast as well. A surface trough continues to linger along the eastern seaboard, but with a lack of moisture and associated lift, no precipitation will occur tonight. Some afternoon cumulus will dissipate later this evening. Overnight lows will be similar to Sunday night, but maybe a degree or two warmer in some spots. Also, with the return flow, dewpoint will rebound overnight again. There will be the possibility for some patchy light fog again overnight tonight where the coolest temperatures occur. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Another scorcher is expected on Tuesday. 925mb temperatures are forecast to be 23-24 degrees, and with ample mixing expected to take place, this would give highs Tuesday well into the low to mid 90s, with a few locations possibly in the upper 90s. The exception would be areas north of I-80 where cloud cover may move in during the day and suppress significant warming, and the coast where any sea breeze would knock down temperatures right along the immediate coast line. The Philadelphia metro urban corridor from Wilmington-Philadelphia- Trenton is expected to reach heat index values in the upper 90s. With these heat index values expected, we've issued a Heat Advisory from noon until 7 pm Tuesday. Another concern for Tuesday afternoon will be the possibility of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. While a surface trough will be in place across the area during the day, a back-door cold front is forecast to drop down toward the area from the north later in the day. As the front moves into our area, enhanced lift is expected to move into the area associated with an approaching short wave/vorticity impulse. There will be enough instability for thunderstorms to develop as well. While there is not a significant amount of shear forecast and the freezing level is fairly high, there may be enough instability to allow for some storms to build high enough for some hail to form and strong wind gusts to develop. The best chance for any showers and thunderstorms is the northern half of the area. SPC has areas along and north of I- 78 in a marginal risk for severe weather on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 500 MB: A closed low in the Maritimes Tuesday night will weaken eastward while heights build again along the east coast during the rest of the week with positive anomalies by the end of next weekend and lasting into early next week. Temperatures: Calendar day averages Wednesday still 5 to 10 degrees above normal, near or slightly above normal Thursday and Friday, then warming to at least 5 degrees above normal Saturday, Sunday and Monday....possibly 10-13 degrees above normal Sunday and Monday. Forecast basis: A 50 50 blend of the 12z/12 GFS/NAM MOS guidance Tue night-Wed night, 12z/12 MEX MOS Thu and Thu night, then thereafter 15z/12 WPC day 4-8 elements except warmed that max/min temps guidance by 2-3F Fri-Sun because of the warmer 12z/12 cycle of the GFS/EC. Confidence on temps is average with thinking that these values could run 2-3F warmer during each afternoon Thu- Mon. Hazards: Heat-early season advisory ILG-PHL-TTN metro Tue 6/13 and probably again Sunday or Monday 6/18-19. Several short fuse FLS issuances expected between Fri-Mon eve for high PWAT tstms, and potential for isolated wet microburst SVR storms Sun-Mon. The dailies... Tuesday night...Humid with isolated to scattered showers/tstms along the cold front in PWAT of 1.75". POPS conservative due to model disagreement and wnw 850 flow. Still any thunderstorms will have been any sending outflows sewd into our forecast area, out of n axis of MLC over 2500J, that previously resided near I-80 Tue aftn. NAM has been tossing some high qpf bullseyes sewd into our area so we agree with the recently updated marginal risk by SPC into the early evening. Overall bulk shear does not qualify for svr but big Cape sometimes is enough to yield a substantial tstm, and certainly time of day is favorable as we move to the longest day of the year. Wednesday...Leftover showers leaving the coasts early and only a small chance of new tstms southern Delmarva during the afternoon. PWAT lowers from north to south...still humid south with pwat 1.5". Clearing north during the afternoon. Wind becoming northeast with gusts 15-20 mph and becoming less humid north to south. Wednesday night...Clear to partly cloudy. PWAT continues to lower. Thursday...Sunny to start. Increasing clouds late. DRY though we saw the somewhat wetter soln of the 12z EC but have not applied that soln in this fcst, primarily because the GEFS appeared dry. Seems like the least chance of rain for the week. Southeast winds gust 15 to 20 mph. PWAT begins increasing late in the day. Friday into Saturday...Considerable cloudiness and more humid with periods of showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms in convergence ahead of a warm frontal wave of low pressure trying to develop near the mid Atlantic coast. Southeast wind gust 15 to 20 mph Friday becoming south Saturday with gusts under 15 mph. PWAT increases to 2". Sunday...a foggy start? then becoming hot and humid with high temps around 90 and heat indicies in the mid to upper 90s. Afternoon dewpoints around 70. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms-mainly northwest of I-95. Potentially svr wet microburst. Southwest wind gusts 20 mph. MLC at least 1500J. Decent 0-6K bulk shear. Monday...Patchy fog to start? Hot and humid with max temps 88 to possibly 93F. Afternoon dewpoints around 70. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms, potentially svr wet microburst. Southwest wind gusts 20 mph. MLC at least 1200J. Considerable 0-6K bulk shear. Heat index probably makes it to the mid 90s, possibly higher...all max T dependent. && .AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Generally VFR conditions will continue tonight through at least the first half of Tuesday. One exception is the possibility of patchy MVFR fog Tuesday morning for a couple of hours just before sunrise at ABE/RDG/MIV. Some afternoon cumulus built up today across the area, but this should mostly dissipate later this evening for a mostly clear night. Clouds will build again Tuesday, especially ahead of an approaching cold front across northern areas. Scattered to broken clouds around 5,000-6,000 feet are expected by the afternoon Tuesday. There is the potential for isolated/scattered showers to develop and move across the area Tuesday afternoon associated with the approaching cold front. The most likely time would be between 18z-00z Tuesday. Winds will be gusty for a couple of hours this afternoon, before gusts drop off this evening. Wind directions will generally be from the west to southwest, with some periodic northwest direction at a few locations. Many locations may have their winds become light and variable or calm overnight for a period. Winds increase again Tuesday out of the west 5-10 knots, with gusts in the mid-upper teens during the afternoon. Outlook... Tuesday night and Wednesday: Brief MVFR conditions possible in any showers/thunderstorms. Northwest winds becoming northeast behind a backdoor cold front that moves through the region Wednesday morning. Wednesday night and Thursday: Mainly VFR. Winds east or southeast. Friday: Periods of MVFR with showers developing. Southeast winds gust 15-20 kt. Saturday...MVFR or IFR st/fog showers becoming VFR for a while in the afternoon. Wind becoming south. && .MARINE... Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected on the waters through Tuesday. Although winds may gust around 20 knots at times late this afternoon into the early evening. Isolated showers or thunderstorms may occur late in the day Tuesday. OUTLOOK... Tuesday night through Wednesday: Sub-SCA conditions expected, although a backdoor cold front will be moving through the waters. Southwest winds shifting to the northeast behind the front late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning with a few gusts to near 25 kt. We may need a marine weather statement early Wednesday for 2 hours of gusty ne winds to 25 kt. Wednesday night and Thursday: Sub-SCA conditions expected. East to southeast winds. Thursday night and early Friday...SCA possible. Southeast winds increasing with gusts to 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Saturday...May? have residual Hazardous SCA seas of 5 ft on parts of the Atlantic waters, otherwise winds becoming south with max gusts under 20 kt except vicinity any tstms crossing DE Bay. Fog may become a hazard for a time on some of the waters. RIP CURRENTS... A low risk of rip currents is expected on the coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware on Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Here is a list of the record high temperatures for the these two days. A full complement of RER's will post at 530P. We know ACY and GED RER and RER equal at ABE. Monday Tuesday June 12 June 13 Mount Pocono PA 87 in 1967 88 in 1894 Allentown PA 92 in 2015* 95 in 1956 Reading PA 93 in 2015* 96 in 1984* Philadelphia PA 95 in 2015* 95 in 1956 Trenton NJ 94 in 1933 95 in 1892 Altantic City NJ 93 in 2016 96 in 1984 Wilmington DE 96 in 1933* 96 in 1956 Georgetown DE 93 in 2016* 97 in 1954 * The record equaled that of a prior year or years. Note: The Atlantic City records listed above are from the Atlantic City International Airport. The airport is located 9 miles inland from the city and its climate records date back to 1958. && .EQUIPMENT... NWR and phone outage on the Coastal water Forecast broadcast since June 1 is related to the change to mixed case in the wording. We hope progress will be made late Tuesday on this problem. DIX will be OM for about 4 days sometime the middle of next week (weather determines the start of the outage) for a substantial install. At that time reliance will shift to TDWR's and adjacent office 88D's. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ070-071-102- 104-106. NJ...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ015-017>019. DE...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Drag/Kruzdlo Near Term...Robertson Short Term...Robertson Long Term...Drag 443 Aviation...Drag/Robertson 443 Marine...Drag/Robertson 443 Climate...443 Equipment...443  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KPHI 122000 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 400 PM EDT Mon Jun 12 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Broad high pressure will persist across much of the eastern U.S. and the western Atlantic through Tuesday. A backdoor cold front will push southward through the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday morning, stall south of the area Thursday, and return north as a warm front next weekend. The next cold front should approach from the west early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... High pressure remains offshore of the east coast tonight, while ridging aloft remains across the east coast as well. A surface trough continues to linger along the eastern seaboard, but with a lack of moisture and associated lift, no precipitation will occur tonight. Some afternoon cumulus will dissipate later this evening. Overnight lows will be similar to Sunday night, but maybe a degree or two warmer in some spots. Also, with the return flow, dewpoint will rebound overnight again. There will be the possibility for some patchy light fog again overnight tonight where the coolest temperatures occur. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Another scorcher is expected on Tuesday. 925mb temperatures are forecast to be 23-24 degrees, and with ample mixing expected to take place, this would give highs Tuesday well into the low to mid 90s, with a few locations possibly in the upper 90s. The exception would be areas north of I-80 where cloud cover may move in during the day and suppress significant warming, and the coast where any sea breeze would knock down temperatures right along the immediate coast line. The Philadelphia metro urban corridor from Wilmington-Philadelphia- Trenton is expected to reach heat index values in the upper 90s. With these heat index values expected, we've issued a Heat Advisory from noon until 7 pm Tuesday. Another concern for Tuesday afternoon will be the possibility of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. While a surface trough will be in place across the area during the day, a back-door cold front is forecast to drop down toward the area from the north later in the day. As the front moves into our area, enhanced lift is expected to move into the area associated with an approaching short wave/vorticity impulse. There will be enough instability for thunderstorms to develop as well. While there is not a significant amount of shear forecast and the freezing level is fairly high, there may be enough instability to allow for some storms to build high enough for some hail to form and strong wind gusts to develop. The best chance for any showers and thunderstorms is the northern half of the area. SPC has areas along and north of I- 78 in a marginal risk for severe weather on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... 500 MB: A closed low in the Maritimes Tuesday night will weaken eastward while heights build again along the east coast during the rest of the week with positive anomalies by the end of next weekend and lasting into early next week. Temperatures: Calendar day averages Wednesday still 5 to 7 degrees above normal, near normal Thursday and Friday, then warming to at least 5 degrees above normal Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Forecast basis: A 50 50 blend of the 12z/12 GFS/NAM MOS guidance Tue night-Wed night, 12z/12 MEX MOS Thu and Thu night, then thereafter 15z/12 WPC day 4-8 elements except warmed that max/min temps guidance by 2-3F Fri-Sun because of the warmer 12z/12 cycle of the GFS/EC. Confidence on temps is average with thinking that these values could run 2-3F warmer during each afternoon Thu- Mon. Hazards: Heat-early season advisory ILG-PHL-TTN metro Tue 6/13 and probably again Sunday or Monday 6/18-19. Several short fuse FLS issuances excepted between Fri-Mon eve for high PWAT tstms, and potential for isolated wet microburst SVR storms Sun-Mon. The dailies... Tuesday night...Humid with isolated to scattered showers/tstms along the cold front in PWAT of 1.75". POPS conservative due to model disagreement and wnw 850 flow. Still we will have been any sending outflows sewd into our forecast area, out of an axis of MLC over 2500 J near I80 previously late Tue aftn. NAM has been tossing some high qpf bullseyes sewd into our area so we agree with the recently updated marginal risk by SPC into the early evening. Overall bulk shear does not qualify for svr but big Cape sometimes is enough to yield a substantial tstm, and certainly time of day is favorable as we move to the longest day of the year. Wednesday...Leftover showers leaving the coasts early and only a small chance of new tstms southern Delmarva during the afternoon. PWAT lowers from north to south...still humid south with pwat 1.5". Clearing north during the afternoon. Wind becoming northeast with gusts 15-20 mph and becoming less humid north to south. Wednesday night...Clear to partly cloudy. PWAT continues to lower. Thursday...Sunny to start. DRY. Increasing clouds late. Least chance of rain for the week. Southeast winds gust 15 to 20 mph. PWAT begins increasing late in the day. Friday into Saturday...Considerable cloudiness and more humid with periods of showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms. Southeast wind gust 15 to 20 mph Friday becoming south Saturday with gusts under 15 mph. PWAT increases to 2". Sunday...a foggy start? then becoming hot and humid with high temps around 90 and heat indicies in the mid to upper 90s. Afternoon dewpoints around 70. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms, potentially svr wet microburst. Southwest wind gusts 20 mph. MLC 1500J. Decent 0-6K bulk shear. Monday...Patchy fog to start? Hot and humid with max temps 88 to possibly 93. Afternoon dewpoints around 70. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms, potentially svr wet microburst. Southwest wind gusts 20 mph. MLC 1200J. Considerable 0-6K bulk shear. heat index probably makes it to the mid 90s, possibly higher...all max T dependent. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Generally VFR conditions will continue tonight through at least the first half of Tuesday. One exception is the possibility of patchy MVFR fog Tuesday morning for a couple of hours just before sunrise at ABE/RDG/MIV. Some afternoon cumulus built up today across the area, but this should mostly dissipate later this evening for a mostly clear night. Clouds will build again Tuesday, especially ahead of an approaching cold front across northern areas. Scattered to broken clouds around 5,000-6,000 feet are expected by the afternoon Tuesday. There is the potential for isolated/scattered showers to develop and move across the area Tuesday afternoon associated with the approaching cold front. The most likely time would be between 18z-00z Tuesday. Winds will be gusty for a couple of hours this afternoon, before gusts drop off this evening. Wind directions will generally be from the west to southwest, with some periodic northwest direction at a few locations. Many locations may have their winds become light and variable or calm overnight for a period. Winds increase again Tuesday out of the west 5-10 knots, with gusts in the mid-upper teens during the afternoon. Outlook... Tuesday night and Wednesday: Brief MVFR conditions possible in any showers/thunderstorms. Northwest winds becoming northeast behind a backdoor cold front that moves through the region on Wednesday. Wednesday night and Thursday: Mainly VFR. Winds east or southeast. Friday: Periods of MVFR with showers developing. Southeast winds gust 15-20 kt. Saturday...MVFR or IFR st/fog showers becoming VFR for a while in the afternoon. Wind becoming south. && .MARINE... Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected on the waters through Tuesday. Although winds may gust around 20 knots at times late this afternoon into the early evening. Isolated showers or thunderstorms may occur late in the day Tuesday. OUTLOOK... Tuesday night through Wednesday: Sub-SCA conditions expected, although a backdoor cold front will be moving through the waters. Southwest winds shifting to the northeast behind the front late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Wednesday night and Thursday: Sub-SCA conditions expected. East to southeast winds. Thursday night and early Friday...SCA possible. Southeast winds increasing with gusts to 25 kt. Seas building to 5 ft. Saturday...May? have residual Hazardous SCA seas of 5 ft on parts of the Atlantic waters, otherwise winds becoming south with max gusts under 20 kt except vicinity any tstms crossing DE Bay. Fog may become a hazard for a time on some of the waters. RIP CURRENTS... A low risk of rip currents is expected on the coastal waters of New Jersey and Delaware on Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Here is a list of the record high temperatures for the these two days. A full complement of RER's will post at 530P. We know ACY RER and RER equal at ABE. Monday Tuesday June 12 June 13 Mount Pocono PA 87 in 1967 88 in 1894 Allentown PA 92 in 2015* 95 in 1956 Reading PA 93 in 2015* 96 in 1984* Philadelphia PA 95 in 2015* 95 in 1956 Trenton NJ 94 in 1933 95 in 1892 Altantic City NJ 93 in 2016 96 in 1984 Wilmington DE 96 in 1933* 96 in 1956 Georgetown DE 93 in 2016* 97 in 1954 * The record equaled that of a prior year or years. Note: The Atlantic City records listed above are from the Atlantic City International Airport. The airport is located 9 miles inland from the city and its climate records date back to 1958. && .EQUIPMENT... NWR and phone outage on the Coastal water Forecast broadcast since June 1 is related to the change to mixed case in the wording. We hope progress will be made late Tuesday on this problem. DIX will be OM for about 4 days sometime the middle of next week (weather determines the start of the outage) for a substantial install. At that time reliance will shift to TDWR's and adjacent office 88D's. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ070-071-102- 104-106. NJ...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ015-017>019. DE...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Drag/Kruzdlo Near Term...Robertson Short Term...Robertson Long Term...Drag Aviation...Drag/Robertson Marine...Drag/Robertson Climate... Equipment...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KEWX 111758 AAA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1258 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017 .AVIATION.../18Z TAF CYCLE/ VFR ceilings have returned to KAUS/KSAT/KSSF but KDRT remains MVFR as of 18Z. Latest satellite trends indicate rapid clearing is taking place along the Rio Grande vicinity and SKC conditions for KDRT will occur with the next hour. VFR will remain in place through the evening across all terminals till 07-09Z when MVFR ceilings are expected to return. Sounding profiles indicate greater low-level saturation and IFR probabilities appear to be higher for KAUS/KSAT/KSSF in the 11-15Z range. KDRT will again be delayed in going down to MVFR till 11-13Z. A recovery to MVFR and then VFR will once again occur late morning and early afternoon Sunday. No SHRA or weather concerns are expected for TAF sites through the next 24 hours. Winds will remain southeast at 10-15 knots this afternoon and fall to near or below 10 knots tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1155 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017/ UPDATE... Low stratus continues to persist along the Rio Grande Plains and portions of the Edwards Plateau that has kept those areas in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Elsewhere, partly to mostly sunny skies with very shallow cumulus has allowed temperatures to warm up as expected into the mid to upper 80s. Thus, we have adjusted the grids to account for a slightly cooler forecast out in the Rio Grande Plains where temperatures will most likely not exceed the mid 90s while maintaining lower 90s elsewhere. A strong boundary layer cap should prevent convection from developing this afternoon as a weak mid-to- upper level closed low centered just a few counties to our east maintains weak northerly flow aloft. Thus, no chances to POPs have been made with just minor adjustments to other grid elements. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017/ AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 12Z TAF PERIOD... MVFR CIG deck currently spans the periphery of the Edwards Plateau very nicely at TAF issuance with MVFR being reported at KAUS and KSAT. KSSF appears to be just far enough south of the CIG formation to stay VFR this morning. KDRT should be seeing MVFR impacts in the next hour or so as the deck creeps towards the Rio Grande. Have included a TEMPO IFR mention at the San Antonio sites for the first few hours of the TAF but have improvement to VFR for all sites by late morning. The VFR should prevail through all but the last 3 hours of the 24 hour period when MVFR and potentially IFR CIGs re-develop tomorrow morning. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)... A weak upper level disturbance currently over southeast Texas will gradually weaken and move to the east-southeast through Monday as the subtropical ridge axis builds across north central Mexico and southwest Texas. While some of the models do show convection across the coastal plains during the late afternoon and early evening hours, chances are very low and we will not mention in the forecast at this time. Otherwise, temperatures should remain near normal today, then rise a degree or two above normal for Monday. LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)... Most of south central Texas will see dry weather along with above normal temperatures through the middle of the upcoming work week. We could see some showers and thunderstorms develop across the coastal plains during peak heating hours on Tuesday and Wednesday. For now, we will keep chances low (20-30%) as mainly isolated activity is expected. Beginning Thursday, the subtropical ridge axis begins to retrograde and then becomes established over the desert southwest on Saturday. This will place south central Texas in a northwest flow aloft pattern for the latter half of the upcoming work week into Saturday. This should lead to a slight uptick in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms across south central Texas. For now, we will keep rain chances low (20%), and refine as needed based on subsequent model data. As for temperatures, we should see readings roughly 2-5 degrees above normal for mid June. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 72 93 74 93 75 / - - - 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 93 74 93 76 / - - - 20 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 93 73 94 76 / - 0 - 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 69 91 71 92 73 / - 0 - 10 - Del Rio Intl Airport 73 97 75 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 - Georgetown Muni Airport 71 92 72 92 74 / - - - 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 71 94 74 95 76 / 0 0 - - - San Marcos Muni Airport 71 93 73 93 76 / - - - 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 93 74 93 76 / - 20 10 20 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 72 93 74 94 77 / 0 0 10 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 73 95 74 95 77 / 0 0 - 10 - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Mesoscale/Aviation...Allen Synoptic/Grids...LH Public Service/Data Collection...Treadway  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KRLX 041040 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 640 AM EDT Sun Jun 4 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and sunny again today though a low pressure system slowly drags a cold front through Monday night. Upper low with cooler conditions and showers midweek. High pressure by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 630 AM Sunday... No changes. As of 130 AM Sunday... Another dry, sunny day though clouds will be on the increase this afternoon. Chances for rain increase this evening and especially overnight as a slow moving front moves through the area. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 240 AM Sunday... Low pressure wave will move east across southern zones at the start of the period, with showers and thunderstorms, some heavy at times as it does so. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall still exists across the CWA on Monday with this wave, but overall, concern for water issues is low at this point, due to several days of dry weather ahead of this feature. Cold front will dig south into the region late Monday night into Tuesday, with additional showers and thunderstorms possible, particularly across southeast Ohio and adjacent WV and KY zones out ahead of the front Monday afternoon. Some of the storms could be strong, with damaging winds and hail the primary concerns. A marginal risk for severe storms exists for aforementioned counties. Frontal boundary to the south of the CWA on Tuesday, with upper low digging south across the region, with much cooler, and unsettled weather for the remainder of the short term period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 240 AM Sunday... Upper low will continue to affect the area on Thursday with cool weather and showery conditions. Models begin to show differences towards the end of the long term period, but overall, a brief break in the precipitation is possible late in the week as the upper low finally moves off to the east, but another front is possible over the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 00Z Sunday thru 00Z Monday... As of 630 AM Sunday... VFR today. Rain begins to move into the area by the end of the period. IFR probabilities begin to increase after 09Z - mainly in the south. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High becoming medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precip may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR stratus possible Monday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/JW/30 NEAR TERM...JW SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...JW  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMFR 031549 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 849 AM PDT Sat Jun 3 2017 .DISCUSSION...A deep marine push last night and this morning brought stratus into almost all of Douglas County, which then spilled over into portions of northern Josephine County. Some of these clouds have made it to around Grants Pass. Surface observations and a pilot report this morning indicate that cloud bases near Roseburg were 1400-1800 feet with tops up near 4500 feet. The GOES-W cloud thickness product is also showing the cloud layer to be ~2500 feet. That's a pretty thick layer, which will likely result in later burn off times than yesterday...and it may never completely erode in some places. Right now, it should erode from the edges late this morning and mostly burn off by early afternoon. This will keep temperatures there from getting much above 70 degrees, but where it doesn't burn off, highs will be in the 60s. There could still be a bit of drizzle for the next couple of hours. In the Rogue and Illinois Valleys, another sunny to partly cloudy day is expected with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. We still expect an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms to form near and east of the Cascades this afternoon and evening, with the greatest potential for thunder in the Trinity Alps to the Mount Shasta and Goosenest/Tennant areas. -Spilde && .AVIATION...03/12Z TAF CYCLE...Stratus is covering the coast and inland to the coastal ranges, and inland north of of the Umpqua divide tot he Cascades, but does not looks to be spilling south into the Rogue valley except for a few locations. Models are indicating that some will spill over into Josephine county with some piling up in the south end of Jackson county, but not over the Medford airport. The stratus is expected to burn off to the coast from the coastal ranges, but only very briefly inland in the Umpqua basin this afternoon, if at all. Stratus is expected to return with a similar pattern Sunday morning, with possible MVFR ceilings in the Rogue valley. Sven && .MARINE...Updated 400 AM Saturday 3 June 2017...A thermal trough will strengthen today and the models suggest low end small craft conditions from about Port Orford south and between 5 nm and 40 nm offshore. Winds are expected to settle down slightly Sunday morning, but the models suggest they will reach low end small craft conditions Sunday afternoon in the southern outer waters. Confidence is not high enough to issue a small craft for this even, but we'll continue to monitor. The thermal trough will strengthen again on Monday with small craft and possibly gale force winds late Monday morning through Tuesday morning. High pressure will weaken with winds and seas diminishing Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A pattern that is more typical for late winter and early spring could impact the waters later Wednesday into Thursday with winds shifting to the south with at least small craft conditions possible Wednesday evening and night. Keep in mind this is still a ways out and the details on this could change, so stay tuned for the latest updates in the days to come. -Sven && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 510 AM PDT Sat Jun 3 2017/ DISCUSSION... An upper level trough in the Gulf of Alaska will approach today and then move through the forecast on Sunday. Increasing cloud cover and onshore flow today will lead to temperatures about 5 degrees cooler than were observed yesterday. Sunday will be about 10 degrees cooler still, with most areas experiencing highs in the 60s and 70s, which is about 5 degrees below normal. We expect an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms to form near and east of the Cascades this afternoon and evening, with the greatest potential for thunder in the Trinity Alps to the Mount Shasta and Goosenest/Tennant areas. On Sunday the focus of activity shifts a bit eastward as the trough moves inland, with showers over the East Side. Guidance indicates that Lake County should experience the most in the way of showers and isolated thunderstorms. These storms could also produce gusty winds and small hail, as well as wetting rainfall. Gusty northwest winds are also expected. Monday through Wednesday early summer-like weather returns with dry conditions and warming temperatures. However, Monday morning is likely to start off cool with frosty 30s over most East Side valleys and many 40s across the valleys of the West Side. By Wednesday highs will be the 80 to 90 degree range with 90 to 95 in the usual hot spots. A negatively tilted trough is expected to arrive Thursday. The ECMWF has definitively trended toward the GFS in indicating an impressively cool and wet trough of low pressure moving into the area with wetting rainfall and fairly low snow levels Thursday into next weekend. While just how cold and wet are still to be determined, the GFS and EC operational runs are fairly well agreed on snow levels dipping into the 5-7kft range and measurable precipitation across most of the area as a -27C 500mb cold pool approaches and then pivots through the forecast area. We'll be honing in on this one more as it approaches. BTL AVIATION...03/12Z TAF CYCLE...Stratus is breaking up along the immediate coast this morning, with the exception of near and south of Gold Beach, where conditions will remain IFR/MVFR for the next few hours. MVFR stratus does remain entrenched over interior Coos County and over most of Douglas with terrain obscured. Some of this is spilling over into Josephine County near Galice, but remains mostly north and west of Grants Pass. This will burn off from the edges slowly late this morning and should become VFR most areas by early afternoon. MVFR, however, could linger all afternoon in some areas. VFR will prevail elsewhere with isolated thunderstorms possible from south-central Siskiyou County and near and east of the Cascades late this afternoon/evening. Stratus is expected to return with a similar pattern Sunday morning, with possible MVFR ceilings in the Rogue valley. Sven/Spilde MARINE...Updated 400 AM Saturday 3 June 2017...A thermal trough will strengthen today and the models suggest low end small craft conditions from about Port Orford south and between 5 nm and 40 nm offshore. Winds are expected to settle down slightly Sunday morning, but the models suggest they will reach low end small craft conditions Sunday afternoon in the southern outer waters. Confidence is not high enough to issue a small craft for this even, but we'll continue to monitor. The thermal trough will strengthen again on Monday with small craft and possibly gale force winds late Monday morning through Tuesday morning. High pressure will weaken with winds and seas diminishing Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A pattern that is more typical for late winter and early spring could impact the waters later Wednesday into Thursday with winds shifting to the south with at least small craft conditions possible Wednesday evening and night. Keep in mind this is still a ways out and the details on this could change, so stay tuned for the latest updates in the days to come. -Sven && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376. $$ MAS/BTL/SBN  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMTR 240545 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 1045 PM PDT Tue May 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS...An inland cooling trend will continue through late week as high pressure weakens and the marine influence increases. Minor warming is then expected during the upcoming weekend as high pressure returns to the West Coast. && .DISCUSSION...as of 08:20 PM PDT Tuesday...Only minor adjustments made to sky cover based on current trends. As of 7:50 pm PDT, visible satellite showed an extensive area of low clouds off the coast and impacting parts of the Bay Area with the clouds intruding through the Golden Gate east to Berkeley. Fort Ord profiler shows the marine layer around 1,500 ft this evening. Tuesday was another warm day for inland locations with highs ranging from the 80s to low 90s. Don't expect to see any 90s tomorrow as the ridge responsible for bringing the well above normal temperatures continues to push east into the continent. Most inland locations can expect to see temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees cooler on Wednesday. Additional cooling will occur from Wednesday to Thursday as an upper level low centered over southwestern Canada allows for 500 mb heights to continue to fall over the region. High temperatures by Thursday will fall to the upper 60s to mid 70s across the East Bay and South Bay, as well as the Salinas Valley. Coastal locations can expect widespread middle 50s to middle 60s with marine stratus. Models suggest another ridge to build over the West Coast in time for the holiday weekend, though at this point it doesn't look that it'll be as warm as it was over the past few days. Temperatures should be at or within several degrees of climatological normals for the end of May. && .PREV DISCUSSION...as of 01:32 PM PDT Tuesday...Low clouds continue to hug the coast this afternoon with mostly sunny skies inland. With this, the warmest temperatures persist over inland areas while cooler temperatures (generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s) are common at the coast. This trend will likely persist into tomorrow, with low clouds spreading inland this evening and into the overnight hours with a marine layer of around 1500 feet in place. However, as the ridge aloft weakens and onshore flow increases, inland locations will see the gradual cooling trend continue into Wednesday. With the deepening marine layer, cannot rule out patchy coastal drizzle/mist during the late night and early morning. However, measurable precipitation is highly unlikely. Further cooling is expected late in the week as the ridge flattens and an upper level low drops down into the northern Rockies. With this and an increase marine influence, looks for temperatures to fall below seasonal averages for just about all inland locations. More widespread 60s and 70s will be likely during the afternoon hours beginning on Thursday and continuing through Saturday. By late in the weekend and into early next week, a ridge of high pressure is currently forecast to rebuild over the West Coast. This would likely result in a slight warming trend with afternoon temperatures back to near seasonal averages. In addition, look for mostly sunny afternoon conditions inland while coastal clouds will be possible. && .AVIATION...As of 10:44 PM PDT Tuesday...A deepening marine layer will usher in increasing marine based stratus and fog this evening into Wednesday morning. IFR cigs will likely transition to MVFR cigs very late tonight into Wednesday morning, timing this is challenging. Higher surface pressures over the Central Coast and lower pressures over far northern California through Wednesday will add a southerly component to the wind probably influencing the marine layer cloud cover. Additionally, a lower level cyclonic circulation over the offshore waters approaches the coastal waters just west of the Bay Area Wednesday. Vicinity of KSFO...VFR, so far so good, is holding this evening. Held onto 10z IFR cig forecast for 06z taf issuance. IFR prob transitioning to MVFR cig early Wednesday morning, confidence is low. MVFR cig may hold on through the morning as there is plenty of stratus over the coastal waters combing with solid westerly flow which may become gusty Wednesday afternoon and evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR cigs tonight possibly trending over to an MVFR early Wednesday morning, confidence in timing is low. Plenty of stratus over the coastal waters combined with onshore winds may keep MVFR cigs going through all of Wednesday morning. Low confidence VFR returns Wednesday afternoon. Stratus is likely to redevelop by early Wednesday evening. && .MARINE...as of 10:22 PM PDT Tuesday...Surface high pressure will be located over the Central Coast tonight through Wednesday resulting in mainly light west to southwesterly winds over much of the coastal waters with exception of the far northwestern coastal waters where winds will still be northerly. Winds are forecast to weaken late this week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tngt...SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: Rowe/RGass AVIATION/MARINE: Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, twitter, and youtube at: www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KCHS 202348 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 748 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to weaken across the area tonight. A series of low pressures will track across the Southeast Sunday through midweek, then a cold front will advance through our region Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure will then prevail into next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... This evening: Convection over our GA counties has been diminishing with the passing of the sea breeze and northwest translation of other convective outflow. Skies will remain mainly clear across southeast SC, except right along the Savannah River. Tonight: A backdoor cold front will drift southward across NC, as the western extension of sub-tropical high pressure pulls east. The deep ridging of the past several days will continue to break down and slide slowly east as a deep cyclone moves from the central Plains into the northern Plains. Convection will persist across the CSRA and east-central GA and outside the CWFA as low level jetting and isentropic ascent continues. Then a saturated boundary layer beneath the nocturnal inversion will support the formation of low stratus during the overnight hours. Since parts of SE GA will have wet grounds from today's rains, we have also added patchy fog to the forecast. Greatest coverage of the stratus and fog will occur mainly far NW tier of SC then over the western half of GA, mainly where the lower condensation pressure deficits will occur and where cross-over temps will be reached in several areas. Further east skies will average out to be mostly clear or partly cloudy. Most places won't fall any lower than the upper 60s and lower 70s within the light southerly synoptic flow, although a few mid 60s will be common in the Francis Marion Nat'l Forest where skies will remain mostly clear much of the night. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... An unsettled regime featuring periods of showers/thunderstorms and humid conditions will prevail through this period. Sunday: The upper ridge over the region will continue to break down in favor of a series of shortwaves ejecting northeast from the parent upper trough west of the region. As a result, regime featuring deeper moisture/more numerous thunderstorms west/southwest of the forecast area will shift into the forecast area. However, a rather sharp west/east moisture gradient will persist, and thunderstorms will most likely remain west of the SC coast including the Charleston Tri-County region. Thus, POPs ramp up to likely west of I-95 Sunday afternoon but remain below 15 percent with no mention of precipitation along the SC coast. A few thunderstorms could briefly become severe and could produce locally heavy rain inland Sunday afternoon/early evening, but significant severe weather/flooding is not expected. Otherwise, high temps in the mid/upper 80s will be common away from the beaches, but cooler temperatures could develop inland if thunderstorms attain expected coverage Sunday afternoon. Sunday night: Coverage of showers/thunderstorms should decrease to some degree due to diurnal trends, but slight chance/chance POPs remain in order along/west of I-95 as a complex shortwave trough aloft pushes into the region. Also, patchy fog could develop along/west of I-95 late Sunday night/early Monday morning. Monday: A plume of PWATs around 2 inches will spread farther east into the forecast area, and a shortwave trough will interact with this moisture and various mesoscale boundaries to produce numerous/widespread showers/thunderstorms. Following the progress of the shortwave and associated deepest moisture, likely/categorical POPs are in order most areas with highest POPs inland through midday then shifting toward the coast during the afternoon. Isolated/brief episodes of severe weather are possible, but the potential for locally excessive rainfall will remain somewhat greater. Even so, significant flooding is not anticipated. The latest forecast advertises high temps in the lower/mid 80s, attainable between showers/thunderstorms. Monday night/Tuesday: Patchy fog could develop late Monday night into Tuesday. Otherwise, details regarding POPs remain more uncertain due to the uncertain timing of the exit of an initial shortwave, the potential for brief drying in the wake of this feature, and the uncertain timing of the next shortwave. For now, this forecast maintains likely POPS near the coast Monday evening, then downgrades POPs to chance overnight. Tuesday, likely POPs are justified all areas, but higher POPs could be required inland Tuesday AM and toward the coast Tuesday PM. Expect adjustments to this forecast as details come into focus over the next couple of days. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Unsettled weather is forecasted Tuesday night through Wednesday night as another cold front slowly approaches and then crosses through the region. Drier conditions return Thursday as cool high pressure builds in from the west, persisting into Friday. Temperatures should be a few degrees below normal on Thursday. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR to prevail into the overnight hours. The risk for flight restrictions will increase late with ceilings possibly dropping into the IFR category at either terminal. However, the highest IFR probabilities will remain west of both sites, so no worse then several hours of MVFR ceilings has been forecast from 08-14Z Sunday, before VFR conditions return late in the valid 18Z TAF cycle. Models continue to indicate convective rains will have a better chance impacting areas along and to the west of I-95 Sunday afternoon and thus we have mention of CB at KSAV. Extended Aviation Outlook: Periods of flight restrictions are likely as an unsettled pattern prevails through midweek. && .MARINE... Tonight: The Bermuda-Azores high will gradually relax it's grip across the local waters, allowing a backdoor cold front over and offshore of NC to drop southward, but still staying well to the north through the night. Even with lingering sea breeze circulations into this evening, SE and S winds won't be any greater than 10 or 15 kt, before dropping off several knots late. The lack of any appreciable swell energy means that seas won't be able to muster anything higher than 2 or 3 ft. Sunday through Wednesday: The region will remain between offshore high pressure and a series of inland low pressures. S/SW winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 20 knots and associated seas of 2-4 feet nearshore/4-5 feet beyond 20 nm should prevail, and Small Craft Advisory conditions are not expected. However, thunderstorms could produce locally gusty winds, lighting and heavy rain, especially Monday through Wednesday. Thursday, a cold front will cross the waters, and winds will turn offshore. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KCHS 201710 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 110 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will shift further offshore today. A cold front is expected to move through the region Monday night, followed by another front midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... early afternoon update included subtle changes to temps and dew points based on recent trends, and also to alter the diurnal trend to show some rain-cooled conditions south and west of Hinesville where the better rain probabilities will occur. With 850 mb temps of 16-17C or close to 2 standard deviations above normal, afternoon highs will reach the upper 80s-lower 90s most places west of US-17. Sea breeze influences will "limit" max temps to the lower or middle 80s elsewhere. The Bermuda-Azores high will remain across the local region, while the mid and upper ridging that has been in place the past several days will begin to weaken as a strong cyclone moves through the central Great Plains. However, there is still a persistent cap across much of the CWFA that will maintain our stretch of rainfree weather. The exception will be across our interior SE GA zones, where isolated to scattered coverage will occur. This does not include Savannah, but does include Hinesville, Statesboro, Claxton, Reidsville and Metter. Activity will continue to develop along the sea breeze and differential heating boundaries from the morning stratus/fog, as well as forcing from a nearby impulseS over south-central GA and just off the coast of south coastal GA as seen on satellite imagery. Poor to okay lapse rates and limited moisture will prevent deep convection from developing, but MLCAPE is close to 2000 J/kg and certainly sufficient for convection. Due to DCAPE of 1250-1500 J/kg there could be stronger wind gusts in a couple of storms. Wet Bulb Zero (WBZ) is also low, around 9-10K ft, suggesting that small hail might also occur in isolated storms. Any severe risk is extremely low, but non-zero. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Tonight: Convection will gradually wind down across far interior Southeast Georgia as the sea breeze circulation clears the area and breaks down. Convection may linger across the CSRA and east-central Georgia into the late evening hours, possibly as late as early Sunday morning, as a region of enhanced H8 warm air advection /low-level jetting initiates there. However, this activity is expected to remain west of Southeast Georgia and Southeast South Carolina. Conditions favor a possible redevelopment of low-stratus across interior areas after midnight, but fog is not anticipated. Lows will range from the upper 60s/near 70 inland to the mid 70s at the beaches. Sunday through Tuesday: The upper ridge begins to break down as a series of shortwaves lift northeast from the central Gulf on Sunday. Deeper moisture will move into inland areas during the afternoon. Slightly more capping farther to the east will limit the potential for afternoon convection but farther inland we show scattered showers and thunderstorms. BLCAPEs are ~1,000 J/kg while lapse rates are marginal and shear is weak. Some stronger storms seem reasonable with a severe thunderstorm or two now out of the question, especially far inland where the parameters are the most conducive. The main threats would be wind and hail. A potent shortwave will push a strong cold front through the area on Monday. Deep moisture with PWs approaching 2" will support numerous showers/tstms and decent QPF. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Though, we expect extensive cloud cover to limit instability. The cold front should be offshore Tuesday morning, but another cold front to the west will be approaching. Continued deep moisture across the area will support showers/tstms with decent QPF. With less favorable conditions for severe weather in place, the risk is low. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Unsettled weather is forecasted Tuesday night through Wednesday night as another cold front slowly approaches and then crosses through the region. Drier conditions return Thursday as cool high pressure builds in from the west, persisting into Friday. Temperatures should be a few degrees below normal on Thursday. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR to prevail into the overnight hours at KCHS and KSAV. The risk for flight restrictions will increase late with ceilings possibly dropping into the IFR category at either terminal. However, the highest IFR probabilities will remain west of both sites, so no worse then several hours of MVFR ceilings has been forecast from 08-14Z Sunday, before VFR conditions return late in the valid 18Z TAF cycle. Extended Aviation Outlook: Occasional flight restrictions are expected Sunday afternoon through Wednesday as a series of cold fronts bring numerous showers/tstms. && .MARINE... This afternoon: Sub-tropical high pressure will hold firm, with the resulting ridge axis over the SC waters. This will cause SE or S winds at or below 12 kt, and in the absence of any appreciable swell the seas won't be any more than 2 or 3 ft. Tonight: Southerly wind regime will hold with Atlantic high pressure centered well offshore. Winds look to remain 10 kt or less with seas 2-3 ft. Sunday through Wednesday: The western periphery of Atlantic high pressure will be over the area Sunday. A cold front is forecasted to cross through the region Monday night, followed by another one midweek. Brief periods of gusty winds are possible with the frontal passage, but conditions won't be bad enough for Small Craft Advisories. Offshore flow develops late Wednesday as high pressure builds from the west. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KCHS 201636 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1236 PM EDT Sat May 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will shift further offshore today. A cold front is expected to move through the region Monday night, followed by another front midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... early afternoon update included subtle changes to temps and dew points based on recent trends, and also to alter the diurnal trend to show some rain-cooled conditions south and west of Hinesville where the better rain probabilities will occur. With 850 mb temps of 16-17C or close to 2 standard deviations above normal, afternoon highs will reach the upper 80s-lower 90s most places west of US-17. Sea breeze influences will "limit" max temps to the lower or middle 80s elsewhere. The Bermuda-Azores high will remain across the local region, while the mid and upper ridging that has been in place the past several days will begin to weaken as a strong cyclone moves through the central Great Plains. However, there is still a persistent cap across much of the CWFA that will maintain our stretch of rainfree weather. The exception will be across our interior SE GA zones, where isolated to scattered coverage will occur. This does not include Savannah, but does include Hinesville, Statesboro, Claxton, Reidsville and Metter. Activity will continue to develop along the sea breeze and differential heating boundaries from the morning stratus/fog, as well as forcing from a nearby impulse over south-central GA as seen on satellite imagery. Poor to okay lapse rates and limited moisture will prevent deep convection from developing, but MLCAPE is close to 2000 J/kg and certainly sufficient for convection. Due to DCAPE of 1250-1500 J/kg there could be stronger wind gusts in a couple of storms. Wet Bulb Zero (WBZ) is also low, around 9-10K ft, suggesting that small hail might also occur in isolated storms. Any severe risk is extremely low, but non-zero. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Tonight: Convection will gradually wind down across far interior Southeast Georgia as the sea breeze circulation clears the area and breaks down. Convection may linger across the CSRA and east-central Georgia into the late evening hours, possibly as late as early Sunday morning, as a region of enhanced H8 warm air advection /low-level jetting initiates there. However, this activity is expected to remain west of Southeast Georgia and Southeast South Carolina. Conditions favor a possible redevelopment of low-stratus across interior areas after midnight, but fog is not anticipated. Lows will range from the upper 60s/near 70 inland to the mid 70s at the beaches. Sunday through Tuesday: The upper ridge begins to break down as a series of shortwaves lift northeast from the central Gulf on Sunday. Deeper moisture will move into inland areas during the afternoon. Slightly more capping farther to the east will limit the potential for afternoon convection but farther inland we show scattered showers and thunderstorms. BLCAPEs are ~1,000 J/kg while lapse rates are marginal and shear is weak. Some stronger storms seem reasonable with a severe thunderstorm or two now out of the question, especially far inland where the parameters are the most conducive. The main threats would be wind and hail. A potent shortwave will push a strong cold front through the area on Monday. Deep moisture with PWs approaching 2" will support numerous showers/tstms and decent QPF. Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Though, we expect extensive cloud cover to limit instability. The cold front should be offshore Tuesday morning, but another cold front to the west will be approaching. Continued deep moisture across the area will support showers/tstms with decent QPF. With less favorable conditions for severe weather in place, the risk is low. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Unsettled weather is forecasted Tuesday night through Wednesday night as another cold front slowly approaches and then crosses through the region. Drier conditions return Thursday as cool high pressure builds in from the west, persisting into Friday. Temperatures should be a few degrees below normal on Thursday. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR to prevail through this evening. Risk for sub-VFR conditions will increase overnight with cigs possibly dropping as low as IFR at either terminal. Highest IFR probabilities remain west of both sites, so will not introduce sub-IFR cigs just yet. Extended Aviation Outlook: Occasional flight restrictions are expected Sunday afternoon through Wednesday as a series of cold fronts bring numerous showers/tstms. && .MARINE... This afternoon: Sub-tropical high pressure will hold firm, with the resulting ridge axis over the SC waters. This will cause SE or S winds at or below 12 kt, and in the absence of any appreciable swell the seas won't be any more than 2 or 3 ft. Tonight: Southerly wind regime will hold with Atlantic high pressure centered well offshore. Winds look to remain 10 kt or less with seas 2-3 ft. Sunday through Wednesday: The western periphery of Atlantic high pressure will be over the area Sunday. A cold front is forecasted to cross through the region Monday night, followed by another one midweek. Brief periods of gusty winds are possible with the frontal passage, but conditions won't be bad enough for Small Craft Advisories. Offshore flow develops late Wednesday as high pressure builds from the west. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDMX 200902 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 402 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017 .SHORT TERM.../Today through Tonight/ Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017 Large upper trough continues to impact the mid-section of the country and is currently spinning over NE with fetch of moisture pushing ahead of it into Iowa. This has resulted in a widespread showers throughout the overnight hours. Associated surface low is currently located over north central to northeast KS, with the dry slot nosing into eastern KS. Upper low set to migrate slowly ENE into central MN by early Sunday, with the surface low tracking northeastward through IA and into western WI. This will allow the dry slot to punch into much of the state through the afternoon hours and into tonight. Therefore expect bulk of the precipitation to come to an end early this morning as the waa wing of precip shoves north and east through the state. May still see some spotty showers/thunderstorms as the sfc low moves into SW IA, and with the sfc warm front lifting northward through southern/eastern IA. System to nearly occlude as it lifts through IA, with the dryline shoving ENE through central/eastern IA this afternoon. May see some additional scattered shower/storm development with that nosing through the area. Majority of precip chances tonight to be in the def zone region across northwest to northern IA as the entire system continues to lift north and east. As for temperatures cloud cover to remain across much of the CWA today into tonight, with some breaks possible in the far south/east as the warm front lifts northward. This should allow sfc temps to pops up quickly in that region, otherwise remainder of the CWA will struggle to warm much today with highs only in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Push of colder air into the state on the backside of the system tonight as H85 temps actually drop below freezing. However low clouds expected to be across the CWA so should limit the temp drop with lows mainly in the 40s tonight. .LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday/ Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017 Sunday... Parent upper low described in the short term slated to trek northward, making it to the Canada/Minnesota border by 00z Mon. 00z model runs cluster well enough to where general consensus blend reliable...with less emphasis continuing to be placed on the NAM. Associated sfc low to be located over the Northwoods of Wisconsin by 00z Mon. The past few model runs have been persistent with wrap-around stratus covering Iowa most of the day. Now seeing the whites of the eyes of the clouds, must buy in to stratus...especially across northern to northeastern Iowa. As advertised in yesterday morning's AFD, have followed through on expectation to lower max temps 5 degrees vs guidance. Now have highs in the 50s down to Creston and Ottumwa. Still may have a degree or two to shave off and could probably even trim a few additional degrees more across the north/northeast given higher likelihood of denser stratus during daytime heating. Cloud thickness depths should generally not be high enough to warrant drizzle mention beyond perhaps the north/northeastern tier of counties. Monday into Tuesday... Models showing high run-to-run consistency in dropping a shortwave southeastward through Canada and towards the upper Midwest. Models also showing great run-to-run consistency in "phasing" this shortwave with the upper low from this weekend. Accompanying sfc low should be near the IA/MN border by 21z Mon...with attendant cold front dropping south/southwestward through the western portion of the DMX CWA. MLCAPE values approach 1000 J/KG ahead of the boundary...which would serve as a focusing mechanism for thunderstorm development. With dewpoints in the mid to upper 40s and sfc temps in the mid to upper 60s, sounding analysis confirms any storms should be elevated, effectively confining the threat to marginal hail chances, with a low strong wind threat. This system will propagate eastward overnight, pushing east of the DMX CWA by 09Z-12Z Tue. Wednesday and Beyond... Behind the Tuesday system, ridging/thermal ridging will have been building over the intermountain west. Long- range models showing good agreement in placing sfc high over the Midwest by 06Z Thursday...with the thermal ridge crashing down over Iowa Thursday into Friday. If this solution holds, temperatures will need to be bumped up several degrees. && .AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night/ Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017 Widespread IFR to LIFR cigs will be over Iowa through much of Saturday before improving late. A couple waves of showers and a few thunderstorms through the period that may reduce vsbys at times. A boundary will move through late afternoon and into the evenings and bring a switch in wind direction. Drier air will arrive with the boundary and cigs will begin to improve. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Beerends LONG TERM...Kotenberg AVIATION...Donavon  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KOKX 112354 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 754 PM EDT Thu May 11 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain in control tonight through Friday as low pressure gradually departs the the east. A surface low will track up the coast during the day on Saturday, passing south and east of Long Island overnight. Unsettled weather will then continue into Monday before high pressure builds south of the region through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Closed upper level low passes further to the east. Weak surface high builds. Forecast is generally on track. Sky is the biggest challenge as the aftn cu has been diminishing with the loss of heating. However...aftn cu across MA/RI has developed into a solid cloud deck and has been advecting to the SW. Winds lighten tonight...but a light NE flow in the low levels should result in a slow advancement of the clouds into srn CT and eastern LI. Additionally...with cooling and moisture becoming trapped beneath a low level inversion expect redevelopment of clouds at around 4-5k ft beneath the cirrus. Temperatures overnight fall into and through the lowers, with a expected range from the upper 40s in and around NYC, to around 40 interior and eastern Long Island Pine Barrens. Onshore winds remain rather light. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Southern stream shortwave moves out of the Plains states, pivoting across the Gulf states, as northern stream trough in central Canada begins to move toward the Great Lakes Friday night. Weak ridge builds briefly Friday, but tracks east Friday night as these two upper features approach. A warm front located along the Appalachians to our southwest approaches Friday night. Surface low ahead of southern stream shortwave tracks toward the Carolinas. With high pressure over New England, a persistent SE/E flow is expected to continue Friday and Friday night. This cool flow off the water will ensure cool temperatures Friday. Expect high's in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with lows Friday night in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... At the start of the long term period, interaction between an upper level low over southern Canada and a low moving across the southern U.S. will result in a surface low that will track up the Mid Atlantic coast during the day on Saturday. Overall models have been in fairly good agreement with the low tracking to a position just southeast of Long Island overnight Saturday and into the Gulf of Maine by Sunday night. The one notable exception to this is the 12Z ECMWF, which now tracks the low farther offshore and has implications for the sensible weather during the day on Saturday. In general, expect rain to overspread the area from southwest to northeast overnight Friday night into Saturday morning, accompanied by gusty E-NE winds. A period of heavy rain is not out of the question Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, although model QPF has trended slightly downward with today's 12Z runs, and the offshore solution of the ECMWF would support even lower amounts. Lingering light rain and showers are possible during the day on Sunday into Monday as the low is slow to exit the area. Thereafter, a ridge builds south of the region Tuesday through Thursday, resulting in a return to dry weather. An approaching shortwave could trigger a few showers during the day on Thursday, but otherwise conditions remain dry. Temperatures will continue to run below normal on Saturday and Sunday with plenty of cloud cover. With the low moving out to the northeast and the ridge building in, temperatures will begin to warm on Monday, with highs by Wednesday and Thursday approaching 10 degrees above normal away from the coast. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weak high pressure remains over the area through Saturday. High confidence in VFR through this evening. MVFR probable at KGON by late tonight and possible at KISP and KBDR. Saturday should have most areas with 3500-4500 FT ceiling for the entire day. Exception are at KGON, where should have MVFR ceilings and at KISP/KBDR where MVFR ceilings are probable late. Winds become light and variable throughout this evening. Winds are out of the NE-E at 10KT or less Friday morning, then E-SE at 10KT or less Friday afternoon/early Friday evening. There is a low chance for occasional gusts to around 15 kt at city terminals Friday afternoon. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Timing in onset/offset of light and variable winds could be off +/- 1-2 hours. Low chance of MVFR ceilings late tonight/Friday morning. KLGA TAF Comments: Timing in onset/offset of light and variable winds could be off +/- 1-2 hours. Low chance of MVFR ceilings late tonight/Friday morning. KEWR TAF Comments: Timing in onset/offset of light and variable winds could be off +/- 1-2 hours. KTEB TAF Comments: Timing in onset/offset of light and variable winds could be off +/- 1-2 hours. KHPN TAF Comments: Timing in onset/offset of light and variable winds could be off +/- 1-2 hours. Low chance of MVFR ceilings late tonight/Friday morning. KISP TAF Comments: Timing in onset/offset of light and variable winds could be off +/- 1-2 hours. Moderate confidence in MVFR ceilings. Timing could be off +/- 1-2 hours. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Friday night-Saturday night...MVFR to LIFR likely. E winds G15-25KT Friday night and Saturday. E-N winds G25-35KT possible Saturday night. .Sunday-Sunday night...MVFR or lower possible. N-NW winds G15-20KT possible. .Monday-Tuesday...VFR. NW winds G25-35KT possible. && .MARINE... Tranquil conditions across the waters continue tonight and Friday as a light E/SE flow continues. These winds begin to increase late Friday night. Seas remain tranquil, 3 ft or less on the ocean, and 1 ft or less across the surrounding non ocean waters. A coastal low is likely to bring gales to the ocean and potentially to the eastern Sound and bays Saturday afternoon into Sunday, with SCA conditions elsewhere. SCA conditions then continue into the day on Monday before winds fall below SCA criteria late. Rough ocean seas will develop on Saturday and linger into early next week. && .HYDROLOGY... A widespread 1.5-2.5 inch rainfall event is expected this weekend. This could result in minor urban and small stream flood impacts, especially in any periods of heavier rainfall. Locally moderate urban flood impacts are possible for coastal and tidally affected riverine locales if the heavier rain intensity coincides with the late Sat eve/Sat night storm tide. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A coastal low is expected to impact the area this weekend, although there is still some uncertainty on its exact timing/track and intensity. Potential persists for at least minor coastal impacts for vulnerable coastal locale with the Sat night high tide cycle based on timing/magnitude/duration of E-NE winds and 1.5 to 2.5 ft surge needed to reach minor coastal flooding benchmarks. Surge of 2.75 to 3.5 ft is required to reach moderate flood levels, which is a low/isolated potential at this time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KOKX 100220 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1020 PM EDT Tue May 9 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A broad area of low pressure will gradually move offshore through the mid to late week with high pressure building in its wake. A potent area of low pressure approaches from the south and impacts the area through the weekend before moving off the coast early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... The fcst is on track with no major changes made. Cold advection on the backside of the trough will continue the trend of below normal temperatures, despite some moderation from lingering cloud cover. Expect lows 5 to 10 degrees below climatological normals. There is some indication that clouds may clear from west to east just prior to sunrise. Given light winds, an ideal but short period of radiational cooling may allow lows to fall further than forecast, leading to the potential for some patchy frost across portions of southeastern NY and interior CT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The omega block shifts slightly eastward for Wednesday with very little change in overall conditions. Temperatures will rise a few degrees more than Tuesday, with highs generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s, though still remaining about 5 degrees below seasonal values. Expect diurnal instability once again with isolated showers as another upper vorticity max rotates through during the afternoon and evening. The gradual increase in cloud cover will act to cool temperatures again, with highs likely achieved earlier in the day prior to the increase in coverage. Cloud cover lingers through a portion of the night across the east, with lows closer to normal, while areas farther west that can clear will see lows near or slightly below climatological normals. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... There is good agreement with the H5 flow across North America amongst NWP into Sunday with notable differences thereafter. The blocky pattern we have been experiencing of late appears to continue into early next week with an unsettled weather pattern generally continuing. As the upper low that has been over the NE for the last several days departs into the Atlantic on Thu...ridging will briefly build in both at the sfc and aloft. Meanwhile...a cutoff over central Canada and another over the Plains will gradually track towards the area with a deep trough developing over the eastern US by the weekend. This trough will be slow to advance due to downstream blocking...and eventually cuts off again over off the Mid Atlantic coast on Sun as a result. This is where the upper pattern starts to go awry amongst the guidance...the GFS more progressive than the EC...but feel this is too optimistic considering the pattern and persistence. So...unsettled weather may linger into early next week. At the sfc...weak high pres nosing in from the north on Thu...will gradually weaken through Fri as low pres moves through the Plains and Tennessee Valley. Overrunning rain may begin to develop as early as Fri aftn across NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley...with an onshore flow and orographic enhancement but the heaviest rainfall looks to hold off until Sat/Sat night. A 40-50kt LLJ is forecast to develop which will increase pcpn rates during this time...but the 4-6 inch amounts in the operational GFS look way overdone considering the dynamics. GEFS plumes show that this is the worst case solution attm. See the hydro section for more info on expected QPF and potential impacts. System is slow to depart as mentioned earlier due to downstream blocking and could have another prolonged period of cloudiness and showers lingering into next week with an upper level low over/near the area. Temps will generally be on the cool side of normal during this period as a result with highs 5-10 degrees below normal. If the more progressive GFS ends up being right...highs could rebound to near normal Mon/Tue. Lows should generally be near normal due to the cloud cover expected at night. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Weak high pressure builds into the region through Wednesday. A weak surface trough develops along the coast Wednesday afternoon. High confidence VFR through the TAF period. Light and variable winds overnight become N-NW under 10 KT Wednesday morning, with the exception of KLGA where winds are expected to be NE. Winds back to the southwest midday to early afternoon along the coast with a sea breeze possible mid to late afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday night-Friday...VFR. .Friday Night-Sunday...MVFR TO IFR probable. NE-N winds G30-40+KT possible. && .MARINE... A weak pressure gradient associated with building high pressure will lead to sub-SCA seas through late week. Tranquil conds are expected on the waters through Fri night. A developing low pressure system is expected to bring at least SCA conds to the waters this weekend. There is the potential for gale force winds...but this will depend on the strength of the low. Will mention this potential in the HWO. Elevated SCA seas may linger on the ocean waters into early next week. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts of concern are anticipated through the week. There is good model consensus between NWP and ensembles on a 1-3 inch rainfall event this weekend. Since it will be a long duration event...expected hydrologic impacts are expected to be minor at worst attm. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MD NEAR TERM...JMC/MD SHORT TERM...MD LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...MET MARINE...MD/24 HYDROLOGY...24  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KOKX 092324 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 724 PM EDT Tue May 9 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A broad area of low pressure will gradually move offshore through the mid to late week with high pressure building in its wake. A potent area of low pressure approaches from the south and impacts the area through the weekend before moving off the coast early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Skies were mainly ovc across most of CT and ern LI. The fcst has been updated to account for this. Otherwise, cold advection on the backside of the trough will continue the trend of below normal temperatures, despite some moderation from lingering cloud cover. Expect lows 5 to 10 degrees below climatological normals. There is some indication that clouds may clear from west to east just prior to sunrise. Given light winds, an ideal but short period of radiational cooling may allow lows to fall further than forecast, leading to the potential for some patchy frost across portions of southeastern NY and interior CT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... The omega block shifts slightly eastward for Wednesday with very little change in overall conditions. Temperatures will rise a few degrees more than Tuesday, with highs generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s, though still remaining about 5 degrees below seasonal values. Expect diurnal instability once again with isolated showers as another upper vorticity max rotates through during the afternoon and evening. The gradual increase in cloud cover will act to cool temperatures again, with highs likely achieved earlier in the day prior to the increase in coverage. Cloud cover lingers through a portion of the night across the east, with lows closer to normal, while areas farther west that can clear will see lows near or slightly below climatological normals. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... There is good agreement with the H5 flow across North America amongst NWP into Sunday with notable differences thereafter. The blocky pattern we have been experiencing of late appears to continue into early next week with an unsettled weather pattern generally continuing. As the upper low that has been over the NE for the last several days departs into the Atlantic on Thu...ridging will briefly build in both at the sfc and aloft. Meanwhile...a cutoff over central Canada and another over the Plains will gradually track towards the area with a deep trough developing over the eastern US by the weekend. This trough will be slow to advance due to downstream blocking...and eventually cuts off again over off the Mid Atlantic coast on Sun as a result. This is where the upper pattern starts to go awry amongst the guidance...the GFS more progressive than the EC...but feel this is too optimistic considering the pattern and persistence. So...unsettled weather may linger into early next week. At the sfc...weak high pres nosing in from the north on Thu...will gradually weaken through Fri as low pres moves through the Plains and Tennessee Valley. Overrunning rain may begin to develop as early as Fri aftn across NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley...with an onshore flow and orographic enhancement but the heaviest rainfall looks to hold off until Sat/Sat night. A 40-50kt LLJ is forecast to develop which will increase pcpn rates during this time...but the 4-6 inch amounts in the operational GFS look way overdone considering the dynamics. GEFS plumes show that this is the worst case solution attm. See the hydro section for more info on expected QPF and potential impacts. System is slow to depart as mentioned earlier due to downstream blocking and could have another prolonged period of cloudiness and showers lingering into next week with an upper level low over/near the area. Temps will generally be on the cool side of normal during this period as a result with highs 5-10 degrees below normal. If the more progressive GFS ends up being right...highs could rebound to near normal Mon/Tue. Lows should generally be near normal due to the cloud cover expected at night. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Weak high pressure builds into the region through Wednesday. A weak surface trough develops along the coast Wednesday afternoon. High confidence VFR through the TAF period. Light and variable winds tonight become N-NW under 10 kt Wednesday morning, with the exception of KLGA where winds are expected to be NE. Winds back to the southwest midday to early afternoon along the coast with a sea breeze possible mid to late afternoon. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday night-Friday...VFR. .Friday Night-Sunday...MVFR TO IFR probable. NE-N winds G30-40+KT possible. && .MARINE... A weak pressure gradient associated with building high pressure will lead to sub-SCA seas through late week. Tranquil conds are expected on the waters through Fri night. A developing low pressure system is expected to bring at least SCA conds to the waters this weekend. There is the potential for gale force winds...but this will depend on the strength of the low. Will mention this potential in the HWO. Elevated SCA seas may linger on the ocean waters into early next week. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts of concern are anticipated through the week. There is good model consensus between NWP and ensembles on a 1-3 inch rainfall event this weekend. Since it will be a long duration event...expected hydrologic impacts are expected to be minor at worst attm. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MD NEAR TERM...JMC/MD SHORT TERM...MD LONG TERM...24 AVIATION...Maloit/MET MARINE...MD/24 HYDROLOGY...24  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KICT 021039 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 539 AM CDT Tue May 2 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 346 AM CDT Tue May 2 2017 Forecast highlights focus around heavy rain potential southern Kansas overnight into Wednesday morning, with rather quiet and warmer weather expected Thursday through the weekend. A shortwave trough approaching from the northwest is expected to deepen/strengthen considerably across the region tonight into Wednesday, spreading areas of moderate to heavy rain across generally the southern half of Kansas. GFS, NAM and ECMWF are all in fairly good agreement, spreading widespread 0.50 to 1.50 inches across southern and southeast Kansas. Moisture/instability will be lacking with this system, so likely will not be looking at widespread intense rainfall rates (i.e. 1-2 inches per hour). However, impressive 800-600mb warm advection and frontogenesis should concentrate a fairly narrow intense west-east oriented precipitation band, producing locally 2-3+ inches somewhere across southern/southeast Kansas after midnight into Wednesday morning. Even though rainfall rates alone will likely be insufficient to produce flash flooding with this system, antecedent rainfall and soil moisture, along with various rivers still running bankful or in flood, and continued flooding of low- lying areas dictates the need for some sort of flood watch product. Per interoffice collaboration, we decided on a flash flood watch over southeast Kansas tonight through Wednesday. Furthermore, marginal instability coupled with strong deep layer effective shear may promote a few storms with marginally severe hail over far southern Kansas overnight. With widespread rainfall exiting to the east, scattered showers and thunderstorms should redevelop Wednesday afternoon west of I-135, ahead of the approaching deep shortwave trough and underneath cold air aloft. MUCAPE values around 500 j/kg owing to the steep lapse rates could promote small hail and brief heavy rain with this activity. Loss of daytime heating should kill this activity around sunset. Same could be true for Thursday afternoon- evening over extreme eastern Kansas, although probably not as widespread as Wednesday afternoon-evening activity. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 346 AM CDT Tue May 2 2017 Deterministic models and ensemble consensus continue to strongly support an omega blocking pattern developing across the Nation late week into next week (deep upper lows western and eastern CONUS, amplified ridge central CONUS). This will support fairly quiet, sunny and warmer weather across the Heartland late week and through the weekend, with daytime temperatures climbing through the 70s to near 80 degrees. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 535 AM CDT Tue May 2 2017 SCT-BKN mid-level clouds around 10,000 ft AGL will stream southeast across the region today, along with the possibility of a few sprinkles at RSL-SLN. Widespread showers with some embedded thunderstorms will increase across the region this evening and persist overnight. Rain will be most widespread over generally the southern half of Kansas, along with the greatest chance for thunder. Ceilings will likely deteriorate to MVFR by 06-09z, with IFR probabilities increasing after about 09z later tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 71 49 60 46 / 0 90 60 30 Hutchinson 69 47 60 44 / 10 80 60 30 Newton 68 48 58 44 / 10 80 60 30 ElDorado 69 48 58 43 / 0 90 70 20 Winfield-KWLD 73 50 60 45 / 0 100 70 20 Russell 65 45 60 42 / 10 50 60 20 Great Bend 67 45 60 42 / 10 60 60 20 Salina 67 47 60 44 / 10 50 50 30 McPherson 67 47 59 44 / 10 70 60 30 Coffeyville 73 51 58 43 / 0 100 90 20 Chanute 69 50 55 42 / 10 100 90 20 Iola 69 49 55 42 / 10 90 90 30 Parsons-KPPF 72 50 56 43 / 0 100 90 20 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through Wednesday evening for KSZ072-095-096-098>100. && $$ SHORT TERM...ADK LONG TERM...ADK AVIATION...ADK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KAKQ 231725 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 125 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary becomes nearly stationary across the Carolinas today. A strong low pressure system will cross the region through midweek...and bring periods of moderate to heavy rainfall to the region Monday and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Pcpn moving more east than northeast as it advances from the SW. Still some BINOVC / thinning across the north due to the high moving east across PA. Think the pcpn eventually wins out as afternoon progresses so adjusted grids a bit. Main change was to change from a convective pcpn form to more stratiformed since we are on the cool side of the developing low (i.e. rain vs shwrs). Remaining cool with highs 55-60. PVS DSCN: Late morning MSAS has low pressure over nrn GA with the cold front extending east to near ILM then offshore. AKQ fa wedged in as high pressure to the north provides a cool NE wind. Rain associated with the first wave has diminished to some light rain over the south, even some BINOVC across the north. However, moisture from the second wave already making a beeline for the region from the SW. Thus, expect a cloudy, cool and increasingly wet afternoon ahead as this moisture overspreads the region. Exception will be across the lwr MD eastern shore where any rain will not arrive until late. Highs 55-60, coolest over the piedmont due to the developing in- situ wedge. Thunder chcs just about NIL due to the cool and rather stable airmass. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A cloudy and wet period to begin the work week. Periods of mdt to hvy rainfall expected Monday night and Tuesday. QPF btwn 1.5 to 3.5 inches (highest across the southern third of the area). Models in general agreement that aforementioned upr-level low cuts off as it tracks SE across the southeast and the coastal Carolinas. System then takes on a neg tilt Mon night that spawns a coastal low off the se coast Monday. Resultant strong coastal front will be conducive for heavy rainfall across the southeast CONUS, which will eventually move in our direction Late Monday night and Tuesday. Look for mainly cloudy skies with periods of mdt to locally hvy rainfall Mon/Tue as copious amounts of deep Atlantic moisture gets entrained north and rotates around the system. Thus, confidence remains high enough to go with likely to categorical pops each period. Kept high pops but low chc thunder along the coast. Highs Mon in the mid 50s-mid 60s except 65-70 sern coastal areas. Lows Mon nite in the upr 40s-lwr 60s. Highs Tue in the lwr 60s-lwr 70s. Hydro wise, no flood headlines anticipated attm with numerous breaks in between bouts of rain expected. Do expect some healthy rises in local river by early next week, especially if the heavy rainfall falls over the headwaters. Given the forecasted QPF and after coord with the RFC, expect minor flooding at Lawrenceville on the Meherrin River by Tue. Again, this based on QPF so plenty of time to adjust if needed. Rain tapers off from south to north Tuesday night as the upper low pivots offshore and NE of the Delmarva overnight into Wednesday morning. Early morning lows 55-60. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Long term period will feature a trend towards drier and warmer conditions. For Tue night, mid-level cutoff low and associated sfc low start to progress offshore, with some pcpn psbl on the backside of the systm. PoPs range from 20-40%. Warming trend then commences for Wed as deep SWly flow develops across the eastern seaboard, lasting through the end of the week with temps in the 70s Wed reaching the 80s most areas Thu and Fri. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure moving east across PA is keeping RIC/SBY VFR attm but MFVR conditions across the south with -ra movg east. Expect MVFR ST to become dominate cloud coverage across the entire area as the slug of rain overspreads the region. SBY will be the last to go MVFR probably closer to 00Z. After that expect widespread MVFR/IFR CIGS in areas of rain/fog for the rest of the forecast period as the system is slow to develop off the se coast. Gusty NE winds (15-25 kts at times) along coastal TAF sites. OUTLOOK...A well organized low will linger just off the Mid Atlantic coast through mid week before lifting ne and away from the area. Expect a continuation of MVFR and IFR conditions along with areas of rain/fog through Tues, slowly ending west to east Tues night. MVFR/VFR expected later in the week as high pressure moves in. && .MARINE... Northeast flow prevails over the marine area, between high pressure building into the Northeast and low pressure over the Southeast. Speeds are generally 15-20 knots, with marginal SCA conditions in the bay. Waves generally 2-3 feet and seas 3-6 feet (highest southern coastal waters). High pressure builds in from the northwest today as low pressure remains over the Southeast. Gradient winds relax later this morning into the afternoon, resulting in a brief lull in SCA conditions. Longer reprieve expected in the upper Bay, so have opted to drop the headlines mid morning. In the southern bay, marginal SCA conditions expected today with occasional gusts to 20-23 knots. Gusts of 20-25 knots also expected in the sound and southern coastal waters today. Seas average 4-6 feet. High pressure slides offshore tonight as low pressure slides toward the Southeast coast. The result will be an uptick in northeast winds tonight, with speeds of 15-25 knots. Gusts up to 30 knots in the coastal waters. Seas increase to 5-8 feet. Am concerned guidance is not handling the northeast flow and long period swell the best, so have opted to go above guidance on wave heights. There is the potential for high surf conditions as well, but there remains some uncertainty so have held off on high surf headlines. SCA headlines return for the rivers late tonight. Low pressure slides off the Southeast coast Monday and deepens. Strongest gradient winds begin to expand northward Monday, with speeds of 15-25 knots expected from the mouth of the bay northward. A brief lull is possible for the sound Monday. Seas remain 5-8 feet, but subside to 4-6 feet in the southern coastal waters. Waves 3-6 feet (highest in the mouth of the bay). Low pressure slowly lifts along the Southeast coast Tuesday and offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday night. Onshore flow and SCA conditions persist. Seas build upwards of 6-9 feet Tuesday. Flow becomes northerly Tuesday night as speeds diminish at or below 15 knots as the low lifts over the waters. Seas subside to 4-6 feet late Tuesday night. Waves 1-2 feet. The low weakens and lifts away from the region Wednesday as sub-SCA conditions return. Seas forecast to drop below 5 feet late Wednesday. The next front approaches the waters Friday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal departures are averaging 1 to 1.5 feet early this morning thanks to persistent onshore flow. Tidal departures will build today through midweek as onshore flow prevails ahead of an approaching area of low pressure. Majority of the tidal locations in the bay and Atlantic coast will reach action stage today and tonight, but no minor flooding is anticipated at this time. However, tidal departures increase to 1.5 to 2 feet Monday. Minor coastal flooding is expected during high tide Monday night and again on Tuesday, especially in the lower Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic waters. Depending on the exact track of the low, high end minor to low end moderate coastal flooding is possible Tuesday night. Departures subside Wednesday as low pressure lifts along the Northeast coast and flow becomes offshore. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Monday night for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ632-634-650- 652-654-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight EDT Monday night for ANZ638. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM LONG TERM...MAS AVIATION...MAM/LSA MARINE...SAM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMTR 221154 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 454 AM PDT Sat Apr 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...An approaching upper level trough will bring cooler weather to the district today along with increasing clouds. Unsettled weather is expected through much of next week with passing showers mainly across the north. && .DISCUSSION...as of 2:30 AM PDT Saturday...Mild temperatures across the area this morning with readings ranging from the upper 40s to upper 50s. These temperatures are generally 1-4 degrees warmer than those 24 hours ago. Today is expected to be a little cooler than Friday across the region, with clouds increasing as an upper level trough approaches the area. Rain chances are expected to remain to the north of the district, but some light drizzle is possible near the coast and in the north by this evening. Clouds will decrease on Sunday but northwest winds will ramp up and cooler temperatures are expected. We could see 5-10 degrees of cooling by Sunday with highs only in the upper 50s to near 70. Mainly zonal flow aloft will dominate the pattern next week keeping temperatures on the cool side as weak impulses brush across the northern part of the state. The best chances for rain in our area are late Monday through early Wednesday, but even then, the best chances will be from the Bay Area northward. Rainfall amounts will be light. High temperatures are expected to stay in the 60s to mid 70s through the week. High pressure to rebuild along the west coast by week's end. && .AVIATION...as of 4:35 AM PDT Saturday...For 12z Tafs. A weak cold front will pass through the area later this morning. No precip expected, but if any precip does occur, it will be in the form of -DZ. Confidence not high enough to include in tafs. Questions remain whether there will be a few hours of low cigs as the cold front passes. Decided to include MVFR cigs for North Bay and SF Bay terminals between 18-21z, as satellite imagery has been consistent showing high MVFR probabilities along the cold front. However, confidence is low with timing and cig heights. BKN high clouds will dominate the afternoon and evening hours. W/NW winds become gusty this afternoon, gusts 20-25 kt for most terminals. Low cigs return tonight, around 03-04z. Overall forecast confidence: Medium. Vicinity of KSFO...Generally VFR. Could be a couple of hours of MVFR cigs, around 2000 ft, with FROPA. Breezy west winds this afternoon, gusts to 25 kt possible. Low cigs by 03-04z, but low confidence on timing and cig heights. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. FROPA may bring in BKN MVFR cigs, but low confidence to include in tafs. Gusty onshore winds this afternoon. Sustained winds 10-12 kt, with gusts in excess of 15 kt. Low cigs possible tonight. && .MARINE...as of 2:20 AM PDT Saturday...A dry cold front will approach from the northwest and move through the coastal waters this morning. Northwest winds are expected to remain light to moderate through the day for all zones except the southern coastal waters zones from Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas. Thermal troughing along the southern California coast will aid in increasing winds over the southern coastal waters today. This trough is expected to build northward by Sunday and increase winds along the coastline of central California. Northwest to west swell will build this evening and into the early part of next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tday...SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: Sims AVIATION: BAM MARINE: BAM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, twitter, and youtube at: www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCAR 220157 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 957 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Decaying low pressure in Quebec will slowly drift towards northern Maine while a new area of low pressure organizes south of Cape Cod tonight and intensifies south of the state on Saturday. The low will move south of Nova Scotia Saturday night and high pressure will build on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 935 PM Update: Precip has turned over to all sn a little faster then prev fcst, so we time shifted our fcst grids 1 hour forward and hand edited precip types slightly to shade to all sn a little faster and further S resulting in a 2 hour faster transition then the prev fcst. Fcst 6 hrly and stm total snfls were then updated to show a little more snfl over Nrn Penobscot and SE Aroostook counties. Otherwise, fcst ovrngt hrly temps were updated to reflect a faster drop in temps into mid eve based on latest obs, but no chg in fcst ovrngt lows attm, thinking that temps will not fall much more with evaporational/ dynamic cooling processes mostly used up across areas that have transitioned to sn attm. Orgnl Disc: The big concern for this evening is a vigorous shortwave trough rotating around the closed upper low in Quebec. It will affect areas north of the Katahdin region and Houlton this evening into the overnight hours. There's a lot of lift with this feature as evidenced by omega fields. There is some upper level instability and the LFQ of a strong upper jet will enter northern Maine later this evening. Although temperatures are currently in the upper 30s to lower 40s in northern zones, evaporative and dynamic cooling of the column will generate a fairly quick changeover from rain to snow as the warm boundary layer is eliminated. There is good omega in a rather high dendritic layer later this evening and snowfall rates over an inch an hour are possible as the shortwave crosses. The fact that the heavier snow will be falling at night with these snowfall rates means roads may become slippery at times overnight. Overall snowfall of 3-5 inches in northern Aroostook County and the potential for slick roads led to the decision to issue a winter weather advisory for zones one and two. Snow will linger in northern zones Saturday morning as the remnants of the Quebec low become an inverted trough connected to the offshore low. Further accumulation after daybreak Saturday is not likely with lower snowfall rates and snow will gradually change to rain as the boundary layer warms again. The snow will mostly be a factor for areas north of Greenville to Millinocket and Hodgdon. South of this line, snow may mix with the rain at times late tonight, but no accumulation is expected as lows will be 34 to 37F. Rain will fall tonight into Saturday morning and gradually taper off Saturday afternoon. It will be a chilly day for the entire region with highs only reaching the upper 30s to near 40F. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As the short term starts at 00z Mon/8PM Sun, the last remnants of the system should be departing, with most likely areas of rain and/or snow along the eastern border and also in the northern/western high terrain. As the system moves away, weak high pressure bringing calming winds could allow for some fog across the area through Sun AM. At least patchy sunshine is expected across the entire CWA Sun PM, and it may become mostly sunny or clear south of the Katahdin and Moosehead region. Temps will be near seasonal norms on Sunday. A weak cold front then looks to approach from the NW Sun evening, and bring some showers to the Crown of Maine. Precip appears likely to start as rain showers, then taper to a mix or snow showers. But all models show the precip associated with his front drying up before sunrise Mon, with the sfc boundary making it to the Bangor metro by 15z Mon, and off the coast shortly thereafter. Some clouds are likely to linger behind the front on Mon. The earlier passage of the front will lead to a cooler day Mon up north. But for Bangor metro and Downeast, it appears likely to be just as warm if not warmer thanks to SW'ly winds ahead of the front, but the timing of the front will be key to highs on Mon. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Medium range models are suggesting a moderating temperature trend by mid to late week with temperatures possibly rising to above normal levels late next week. But before that we will be dealing with the potential for some rain Tuesday into Wednesday as low pressure develops along the southeast coast of the United States and then tracks northeast and weakens through Wednesday. This would bring the potential for some rain to the region, especially across downeast areas. There could be a few showers around on Thursday as an upper trough swings across. Drier weather will return on Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Prevailing MVFR cigs will give way to LIFR vis in snow north of HUL and GNR later this evening. The snow will let up to IFR vis later in the night through Saturday morning. MVFR returns Saturday afternoon. For southern sites such as BGR and BHB, the trend will be towards IFR cigs later tonight in rain and drizzle. Once these cigs arrive, they will be very slow to depart on Saturday. SHORT TERM: MVFR to IFR conditions will be widespread Sat night as some low clouds are expected to persist, and areas of fog may develop in light winds. Clouds should break up and fog will dissipate Sun AM, allowing a return to VFR conditions, and remain clear thru Sun evening. Low to mid-level clouds and showers with a cold front may cause some MVFR to patchy IFR conditions for KHUL thru KFVE Sun night, while fog is possible for KBHB and KBGR ahead of the front Sun night and Mon AM. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: 630 PM Update...we optd to go with an SCA for outer MZs050-051 for marginal wind gusts of 25 kt and wv hts upwards to 7 ft for a relatively narrow window between 4 and 11 am Sat morn. Orgnl Disc...There is a chance of SCA conditions ANZ051 from Schoodic Point to Stonington on Saturday morning as low pressure moves south of the waters. Confidence is higher in seas above 5 feet on Saturday than wind gusts over 25 kts. Will await 00Z guidance to get a better look and revisit the decision. SHORT TERM: Both winds and seas are forecast to remain below SCA criteria levels Sat night thru Mon. The biggest risk to safe navigation offshore may be some dense fog possible Sun night into Mon AM ahead of a cold front. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for MEZ001- 002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 11 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Kredensor Long Term...Duda Aviation...VJN/Kredensor Marine...VJN/Kredensor  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCAR 191516 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1116 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move east of the region today. A cold front will pass through state tonight into Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 1035 AM Update: PoPs were re-done this aftn into tngt based on fcst 6 hrly QPF, resulting in a slight delay of rnfl wording in the fcst compared to last update. Also, more in the way of dynamic cooling was played for with precip type ovrngt, meaning more all sn by late tngt across the N and E cntrl ptns of the FA. Fcst 6 hrly snfls were updated with most lctns across the N and E Cntrl areas now fcst to receive 1 to 2 inches, being somewhat trrn dependent. Otherwise, minor chgs to fcst hrly cld cvr, sc temps and dwpts going into the aftn hrs based on latest sat and sfc obs trends, with very little chg in fcst hi temps from last update. Orgnl Disc: Low pressure will approach from the west today as high pressure continues to move off to the east of the state. Precipitation is expected to spread across northern Maine from west to east later this afternoon and tonight as over-running takes place ahead of low pressure approaching from the west. The precipitation will be mostly in the form of rain late this afternoon and this evening but is expected to mix with and change to snow across the north late tonight. The precipitation will end mid morning as the low moves away. Have based the precipitation type on surface temperature. Have created snow ratio using the the snow ratio blender run on the NAM and using the Cobb Tool. Snow amounts based on snow ratio. Have used consensus raw for temperature. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Frontal occlusion wl be crossing the area at the start of the short term on Thur mrng. Most of the steady pcpn wl hv pushed off to the east by 12z with just sctd showers expected ahd of bndry. Expect rain showers for Downeast and a rain/snow mix north of Houlton with all snow showers up in the St. John Vly for a few hrs in the mrng. H9 temps warm drg the day on Thu resulting in warmer maxes than Wed. Next system wl begin impacting CWA late Thur night with H5 low diving into the Great Lakes by 12z Fri. Overrunning pcpn wl dvlp Fri mrng and continue thru the day. May see snow at onset acrs nrn zones Fri mrng but as bndry lyr quickly warms expect that rain wl be pre-dominant ovr most of the area by mid- mrng. Sfc low then fcst to re-develop nr the Cape Cod vicinity late Fri night. Model differences continue to abound on exactly where this coastal low wl dvlp, with majority of med range guidance indicating south of the Gulf of Maine sometime late Fri night yet latest GFS continues to indicate along the Downeast coast by 06z Sat. This closer soln gives much heavier qpf than rmndr of guidance with GFS some 2-3 times higher. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sfc ridge axis builds in bhnd departing system drg the latter half of the weekend. Expect a dry and warm day on Sunday with temps near normal and light winds. Another chc for pcpn wl mv in Sun night as cdfnt drops south out of Canada Sun night and sfc low heads up the ern Seaboard at the same time. It appears that the front wl bring the best chc for any pcpn as sfc low shoots out to sea tho cannot rule out an isold shower acrs coastal zones. Overall a lochc for pcpn anywhere acrs the CWA Sun night thru Mon. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... NEAR TERM: Expect MVFR/VFR today and IFR tonight. SHORT TERM: IFR expected Thur morning with restrictions improving to VFR in the afternoon. VFR Thur night all terminals before lowering to MVFR Fri morning with ocnl IFR through the day in lower cigs. IFR Fri night acrs northern terminals in -sn. Conditions will improve Sat aftn with VFR expected Sat night into Sun all terminals. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Have used the NAM for sustained surface winds. For Waves: The Nearshore Wave Prediction System was used for wave grids. Current spectral observations from 44027 indicate that easterly wind wave continues to be the primary waves system. Longer period swell from the southerly fetch over the last few days continues to persist as a secondary wave group. The easterly wave group will subside later today as winds veer into the southeast and develop a new wave system later today into tonight. This new wave system will build to around 4 feet/5-6 seconds by later tonight and become the primary wave group. SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain blo SCA levels through Fri morning before increasing ahead of next system. Serly swell will result in waves between 5-9 feet thru Sat morning as coastal low tracks in vicinity of the Gulf of Maine. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...VJN/Farrar Marine...VJN/Farrar  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KOKX 151955 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 355 PM EDT Sat Apr 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front approaches and moves north of the region tonight, leaving the region in the warm sector on Sunday. An associated cold front will then move across Sunday night. High pressure builds into the Tri-State from southeast Canada on Monday through early Tuesday, moving offshore Tuesday afternoon. A period of unsettled weather is then possible for the rest of the week as a frontal system sets up near the region. High pressure may return early next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Radar imagery this afternoon is showing an area of showers moving through central and upstate NY. The system is largely expected to continue north of the area, though there will be a chance for an isolated shower this evening, especially for southeastern NY and portions of CT. Otherwise, mild temperatures will continue as a warm front moves north through the area. Cloud cover and warm advection associated with the front should keep minimum temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above climatological normals. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As the offshore high settles to the south and a front approaches from the west, flow will strengthen from the west leading to a favorable set up for well-above normal temperatures to surge eastward. The strength and direction of the flow will aid in downsloping while hindering any typical sea breeze/maritime influence, except perhaps along the immediate coast. Highs will range from mid to upper 70s across Long Island and the immediate coast, and low to upper 80s elsewhere. Have lowered chances for thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening with upper forcing lagging well behind the pre-frontal trough, and very nebulous surface convergence. However, an isolated storm perhaps on higher terrain or if any mesoscale boundaries can develop is not out of the question. Well above normal temperatures will continue into the early part of Sunday night before the cold front moves through, returning temperatures to more seasonable values. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Dry and tranquil weather will begin the new work week as high pressure builds down from southeast Canada. Middle and upper level shortwave trough will slide east through the day as heights begin to rise aloft late. This will all lead to another warm day, but 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Sunday, with a northwest downsloping flow. These winds will help to mix out low level dew points and bring temperatures into the upper 60s and lower 70s. The high settles over the region Monday night into early Tuesday as brief ridging builds aloft. High pressure then sets itself along and just off the New England coast later Tuesday into Tuesday night. A cooler day is in store for Tuesday as easterly flow around the high prevents temperatures from warming much above the 50s. Warmest temperatures will likely be inland where readings could end up near 60. Forecast confidence is high for Monday and Tuesday, but lowers significantly for the rest of the week. Low pressure is progged to approach on Wednesday, with increasing warm advection ahead of it moistening the atmosphere. A weak mid level shortwave also approaches. There is relatively good agreement among the deterministic and ensembles for at least some measurable precipitation, especially late Wednesday into Wednesday night so will increase PoPs from previous forecast. However, amplification of the flow is minimal so held off on increasing PoPs any further as models could be overdoing precip. Low pressure moves offshore on Thursday with the frontal boundary settling to the south. This is where confidence decreases further as their is some hint at high pressure trying to ridge down from the north. The GFS and several GEFS members sink the front well to the south whereas the ECMWF and CMC keep it close enough where the high to the north helps to enhance a maritime flow across the region keeping conditions unsettled Thursday. Another shortwave and its associated low may impact the region on Friday. With uncertainty for Thursday and Friday, have elected to continue with low chance PoPs. High pressure should return to start next weekend. Temperatures will average near normal on Wednesday, possible several degrees above normal Thursday, and then return to near normal levels on Friday. && .AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure slides offshore today, followed by a warm front lifting to the north through tonight. VFR through at least 21z...then MVFR probable late this afternoon/evening. For now, limiting forecast of IFR overnight to KGON. Confidence elsewhere is just too low to reflect in TAFs, especially noting how dry the low levels are. Expect conditions to return to VFR throughout overnight (by 12z at KGON). Confidence in any showers continues to decrease, so have removed VCSH from all but KSWF. Seabreeze becoming well established at all terminals except KSWF. Seabreeze flow should give way to uniform SSW-SW flow this evening, with gusts abating by around midnight. Non-city terminals should see light and variable winds overnight as well. Winds become gusty out of the WSW by mid-morning Sunday. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Sunday afternoon/night...VFR. SW winds G25-35KT possible in the afternoon. W-NW winds G15-25KT possible late at night. .Monday-Monday night...VFR. NW winds G15-20KT possible during the day, N-NE winds G15-20KT possible at night. .Tuesday-Tuesday night...VFR. .Wednesday-Thursday...MVFR or lower conditions possible. LLWS possible Wednesday. && .MARINE... Strong southerly flow will continue through the night, though gusts will briefly diminish as the warm front moves through and the inversion strengthens. Seas will continue to build to 4 to 7 feet on the ocean tonight. By tomorrow, flow becomes more southwesterly as the high sags farther south and a low approaches from the west. Gusty winds expected on all waters, while seas will remain around 4 to 6 feet on the ocean. Winds diminish Sunday night as a cold front moves across the waters. Lingering 5 ft seas are possible on the ocean Monday, but the overall trend will be for subsiding seas with an offshore NW flow. High pressure building over the waters will bring wind gusts around 20 kt, but should stay below small craft levels. Sub-small craft conditions are then expected Monday night through Tuesday night. Increasing SE flow on Wednesday may push winds on the ocean close to 25 kt, with potential for seas to build to 5 ft as well. Winds diminish Wednesday night into Thursday, but ocean seas may linger around 5 ft. && .FIRE WEATHER... Well-above normal temperatures and gusty southwest flow will aid in an enhanced fire danger tomorrow as relative humidities fall to the upper 20s to mid 40s. The threat for fire spread will continue into Monday with NW winds 20-25 mph and milder temperatures but a drier air mass allowing relative humidities to fall into the upper 20s to upper 30s by afternoon. .HYDROLOGY... While there are chances for showers Wednesday through the end of the week, no hydrologic concerns are anticipated at this time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338- 345. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MD/DS NEAR TERM...MD SHORT TERM...MD LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...Maloit MARINE...MD/DS FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...MD/DS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KOKX 151754 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 154 PM EDT Sat Apr 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure continues moving offshore today. A warm front approaches and moves north of the region tonight, leaving the region in the warm sector on Sunday. An associated cold front will then move across Sunday night. High pressure returns, building in from Southeast Canada for early next week. Low pressure will approach Wednesday followed by high pressure Thursday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Latest adjustments made to lower precipitation chances due to dryness of the air mass, though an isolated light shower or sprinkle is certainly not out of the question this evening. Temperatures have risen into the upper 50s to upper 60s in southerly flow and with initially thinner cloud cover. Have updated high temperatures a few degrees above guidance in general. Due to the deeper mixing, dew points across CT have fallen into the upper 20s, though continued gradual moist advection will lead to an improving trend through the evening. Previous discussion follows. Beneath the higher inversion, cloud cover is gradually spreading northeastward. Upstream sounding at KLWX is showing some minimal elevated instability that may advect towards the area supporting this stratocumulus deck. Expect mostly cloudy conditions across most areas by afternoon. Ridging aloft with the jet stream moving farther north of the region today will lead to mainly dry conditions. However, low level forcing from increasing southerly winds this afternoon may lead to a few showers across the region. Temperatures today were from a blend of MAV MOS/MET MOS/GMOS. Limiting factors to highs today will be increasing clouds in the afternoon as well as less deep vertical mixing. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Tonight into Sunday, the flow aloft turns more zonal as the jet stream pushes a little farther southward. The chances for showers pick up this evening as a warm front approaches from the west. The models convey a MCS passing northeast of the region tonight, affecting the area from northern NY State through Cape Cod. There is low QPF amongst the models south of this line, which could brush the region late tonight into the start of the overnight period. However, chances for any showers will be at most 30 percent. Expecting less of a diurnal temperature range as the warm front moves north of the region tonight. Winds will veer from S to SW direction, helping establish the advection of warmer air. Dewpoints will be on the rise as well. With this and the abundance of clouds, went with a GMOS/NAM12 blend for lows tonight, staying in the low to mid 50s. Dewpoint increase overnight will lead to some patchy fog development along the coast of Eastern Long Island and Southeast Connecticut which is also evident within the visibility forecast fields of the HRRR. For Sunday, the region is in the warm sector. Temperatures Sunday were chosen from the relatively warmer ECS guidance and adjusted up so that the forecast trend is slightly higher than the previous forecast. Deep vertical mixing expected Sunday with gusty SW flow developing. Max temps expected to be in the mid 70s to mid 80s range, about 20 degrees above normal. This will help advect in the warmer air. A pre- frontal trough and daytime instability will help initiate convection ahead of a cold front for the afternoon so there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly north and west of NYC. The chance for showers and thunderstorms spreads to the whole region Sunday evening as the cold front itself moves across. Winds will veer and become more westerly. Enough vertical mixing and clouds Sunday night to give another very mild night with lows chosen from the GMOS. Early next week, dry weather returns with mild temperatures Monday but remarkably cooler temperatures for Tuesday. High pressure gradually builds south from Southeast Canada, taking a position with its center in the Canadian Maritimes Tuesday, which for that day gives more easterly surface wind flow. The temperatures were a blend of ECE/MEN MOS guidance, upper 60s to lower 70s Monday for highs but only in the 50s for highs Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cooler, more maritime airmass sets up on Wednesday with onshore flow around the offshore high. The next frontal system also is progged to approach from the west as a shortwave moves into the Great Lakes. This frontal system brings the chance of showers. The frontal boundary may persist near the region through the end of the week as several shortwaves traverse across the northern tier of the country. Have generally kept low chance PoPs for now as there is a good deal of uncertainty on timing of deeper lift and moisture. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure slides offshore today, followed by a warm front lifting to the north through tonight. VFR through at least 210z...then MVFR probable late this afternoon/evening. For now, limiting forecast of IFR overnight to KGON. Confidence elsewhere is just too low to reflect in TAFs, especially noting how dry the low levels are. Have also left VCSH in for this evening, but would not be surprised if all terminals remained dry. If trends hold, might pull with 21z amendments. Expect conditions to return to VFR throughout overnight (by 12z at KGON). Seabreeze becoming well established at all terminals except KSWF. Seabreeze flow should give way to uniform SSW-SW flow this evening, with gusts abating by around midnight. Non-city terminals should see light and variable winds overnight as well. Winds become gusty out of the WSW by mid-morning Sunday. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Sunday afternoon/night...VFR. SW winds G25-35KT possible in the afternoon. W-NW winds G15-25KT possible late at night. .Monday-Monday night...VFR. NW winds G15-20KT possible during the day, N-NE winds G15-20KT possible at night. .Tuesday-Tuesday night...VFR. .Wednesday-Thursday...MVFR or lower conditions possible. LLWS possible Wednesday. && .MARINE... Southerly winds expected to gradually increase this afternoon with likely coastal jet development for NY bight. Marginal sca gusts likely to develop across NY bight and south coast nearshore waters late afternoon into early this evening...spreading east across ocean waters. Gusts should fall below SCA between 03-06z as warm front moves north and inversion strengthens...but the persistent s/sw flow should have seas building and maintaining at 4 to 6 ft on the ocean tonight. SW gusts of 25 to 30 kt likely on Sunday across nearshore waters...while over the open ocean waters gusts may be limited due to strong inversion over the cool waters. Ocean seas should remain around 5 ft during this time though due to the continued sw flow. Winds diminish Sunday night as a cold front moves across the waters. SCA seas may linger on the ocean waters into Monday due to residual southerly swells. Sub- small craft conditions are expected Monday Night into Tuesday as high pressure builds north of the waters. The next chance for small craft conditions is ahead of the next frontal system on Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Conditions will be marginal for rapid wildfire spread today for a few interior locations with more favorable conditions for this on Sunday and Monday. More interior locations could see these enhanced fire spread conditions Sunday and for Monday, this would apply to some areas both along the coast and the interior. Today, min RH only drops to near 35 percent with South gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. For Sunday, winds will be more Southwest with gusts up to 30 to 35 mph with RH a little less, 30-35 percent. Monday features relatively lower winds, up to generally 25 mph out of the Northwest but min RH will be more between 25 and 30 percent. No widespread rain is forecast through Monday so the low levels will remain primarily dry as coverage of showers will be more in the isolated to scattered range. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues are forecast through next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338- 345. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/DS NEAR TERM...MD SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...Maloit MARINE...DS/NV FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...JM/DS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KOKX 151452 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1052 AM EDT Sat Apr 15 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure continues moving offshore today. A warm front approaches and moves north of the region tonight, leaving the region in the warm sector on Sunday. An associated cold front will then move across Sunday night. High pressure returns, building in from Southeast Canada for early next week. Low pressure will approach Wednesday followed by high pressure Thursday into Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Minor adjustments made to show current temperature and dew point trends. 12Z sounding this morning is showing a very dry air mass that is poorly reflected in 06Z model data, with a strong inversion through 2500 ft, and another inversion around 9500 ft. It seems the lowest inversion is initially inhibiting deeper mixing for now, though as temperatures warm into the mid to upper 50s dew points may rapidly fall across inland areas, as they are already beginning to across portions of CT and southeastern NY. Warm/moist advection in southwest flow will gradually begin to temper these drier conditions. Beneath the higher inversion, cloud cover is gradually spreading northeastward. Upstream sounding at KLWX is showing some minimal elevated instability that may advect towards the area supporting this stratocumulus deck. Expect mostly cloudy conditions across most areas by afternoon. Previous discussion follows. Ridging aloft with the jet stream moving farther north of the region today will lead to mainly dry conditions. However, low level forcing from increasing southerly winds this afternoon may lead to a few showers across the region. Temperatures today were from a blend of MAV MOS/MET MOS/GMOS. Limiting factors to highs today will be increasing clouds in the afternoon as well as less deep vertical mixing. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Tonight into Sunday, the flow aloft turns more zonal as the jet stream pushes a little farther southward. The chances for showers pick up this evening as a warm front approaches from the west. The models convey a MCS passing northeast of the region tonight, affecting the area from northern NY State through Cape Cod. There is low QPF amongst the models south of this line, which could brush the region late tonight into the start of the overnight period. However, chances for any showers will be at most 30 percent. Expecting less of a diurnal temperature range as the warm front moves north of the region tonight. Winds will veer from S to SW direction, helping establish the advection of warmer air. Dewpoints will be on the rise as well. With this and the abundance of clouds, went with a GMOS/NAM12 blend for lows tonight, staying in the low to mid 50s. Dewpoint increase overnight will lead to some patchy fog development along the coast of Eastern Long Island and Southeast Connecticut which is also evident within the visibility forecast fields of the HRRR. For Sunday, the region is in the warm sector. Temperatures Sunday were chosen from the relatively warmer ECS guidance and adjusted up so that the forecast trend is slightly higher than the previous forecast. Deep vertical mixing expected Sunday with gusty SW flow developing. Max temps expected to be in the mid 70s to mid 80s range, about 20 degrees above normal. This will help advect in the warmer air. A pre- frontal trough and daytime instability will help initiate convection ahead of a cold front for the afternoon so there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly north and west of NYC. The chance for showers and thunderstorms spreads to the whole region Sunday evening as the cold front itself moves across. Winds will veer and become more westerly. Enough vertical mixing and clouds Sunday night to give another very mild night with lows chosen from the GMOS. Early next week, dry weather returns with mild temperatures Monday but remarkably cooler temperatures for Tuesday. High pressure gradually builds south from Southeast Canada, taking a position with its center in the Canadian Maritimes Tuesday, which for that day gives more easterly surface wind flow. The temperatures were a blend of ECE/MEN MOS guidance, upper 60s to lower 70s Monday for highs but only in the 50s for highs Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cooler, more maritime airmass sets up on Wednesday with onshore flow around the offshore high. The next frontal system also is progged to approach from the west as a shortwave moves into the Great Lakes. This frontal system brings the chance of showers. The frontal boundary may persist near the region through the end of the week as several shortwaves traverse across the northern tier of the country. Have generally kept low chance PoPs for now as there is a good deal of uncertainty on timing of deeper lift and moisture. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure slides offshore today, followed by a warm front lifting to the north through tonight. VFR through at least 20z...then MVFR probable late this afternoon/evening. There is also a low chance for IFR ceilings this evening. Conditions improve to VFR for NYC/NJ metro terminals around midnight...but MVFR/IFR conds possible to continue for eastern terminals overnight. Chance of showers appears to be diminishing, so have removed PROB30 from TAFs. Light and variable flow becomes SSW-S by midday, with gusts to around 20KT this afternoon for interior terminals. S 15-20KT seabreeze likely for coastal terminals, with G25KT possible. SSE-SE afternoon sea breeze possible for KEWR/KTEB. Gusts subside this evening...but S flow likely maintains at 10-15KT. Winds eventually veering SW and subside a bit after midnight from W to E. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Sunday-Sunday night...VFR. Late afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms possible. SW winds G25-35KT possible late morning through afternoon. W-NW winds G15-25KT possible late at night. .Monday-Monday night...VFR. NW winds G15-20KT possible during the day, N-NE winds G15-20KT possible at night. .Tuesday-Tuesday night...VFR. .Wednesday-Wednesday Night...MVFR or lower and LLWS possible. && .MARINE... Southerly winds expected to gradually increase this afternoon with likely coastal jet development for NY bight. Marginal sca gusts likely to develop across NY bight and south coast nearshore waters late afternoon into early this evening...spreading east across ocean waters. Gusts should fall below SCA between 03-06z as warm front moves north and inversion strengthens...but the persistent s/sw flow should have seas building and maintaining at 4 to 6 ft on the ocean tonight. SW gusts of 25 to 30 kt likely on Sunday across nearshore waters...while over the open ocean waters gusts may be limited due to strong inversion over the cool waters. Ocean seas should remain around 5 ft during this time though due to the continued sw flow. Winds diminish Sunday night as a cold front moves across the waters. SCA seas may linger on the ocean waters into Monday due to residual southerly swells. Sub- small craft conditions are expected Monday Night into Tuesday as high pressure builds north of the waters. The next chance for small craft conditions is ahead of the next frontal system on Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Conditions will be marginal for rapid wildfire spread today for a few interior locations with more favorable conditions for this on Sunday and Monday. More interior locations could see these enhanced fire spread conditions Sunday and for Monday, this would apply to some areas both along the coast and the interior. Today, min RH only drops to near 35 percent with South gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. For Sunday, winds will be more Southwest with gusts up to 30 to 35 mph with RH a little less, 30-35 percent. Monday features relatively lower winds, up to generally 25 mph out of the Northwest but min RH will be more between 25 and 30 percent. No widespread rain is forecast through Monday so the low levels will remain primarily dry as coverage of showers will be more in the isolated to scattered range. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues are forecast through next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338-345. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/DS NEAR TERM...MD SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...Maloit/NV MARINE...DS/NV FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...JM/DS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KBUF 091048 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 648 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure along the east coast will move offshore through Monday and continue to provide a stretch of much needed dry weather. Temperatures will soar to well above normal from this afternoon through Monday as southwesterly breezes transport warm air into our region. Low pressure will then move through the Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday with an associated cold front bringing the next chance of rain and possibly a few thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... IR satellite imagery showing clear skies to start the day across the entire region, with high/thin cirrus poised just upstream across Southern Ontario. These high clouds will begin to move into the region this morning, but will remain thin enough to still allow for plenty of sunshine. High pressure will move off the east coast today, with developing southerly flow result in warming across the region. Subsidence under the large scale ridge will keep us dry. However a weak wave with mid- level warm advection will bring a thin layer of mid level cloud cover across the region, resulting in some filtered sunshine at times, and perhaps mostly cloudy by later this afternoon east of Lake Ontario. 850 mb temperatures really ramp up behind this surge of mid- level warm advection, with +8 to +10C at 850 mb by later this afternoon. Southerly to south-southwesterly will result in downslope flow into the lake plains, and combined with enough sunshine and mixing to 900-850 mb will support temperatures climbing rapidly through the 50s and 60s this morning. High temperatures will top out in the upper 60s to low 70s for much of the region. It will be much cooler along and northeast of Lake Erie including downtown Buffalo, and also northeast of Lake Ontario near the Jefferson County shore. The very mild airmass will remain in place tonight with continued downsloping southerly winds through the night helping to keep overnight low temperatures well above average. Locations along the lake plains in western NY will likely stay in the 50s overnight, while some of the higher terrain and north country locations will dip into the mid/upper 40s. Mid and high level clouds will slowly increase ahead of the next approach weather system. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The warm weather is expected to continue Monday and into Tuesday. A broad area of surface high pressure will be centered just off the Mid-Atlantic coast directing a steady southwest flow across western and central New York ahead of an approaching cold front. Diurnal mixing Monday will help promote some gusty southwest winds while surface temperatures make another run into the 70s. This warmth is due to a mid level ridge of warm air over New York were 850 mb temperatures will be around +10C. The gusty southwest flow off Lake Erie and Ontario may limit the eastern lakeshores including downtown Buffalo and Watertown to the upper 60s with higher terrain locations also likely holding just shy of 70. Lingering mid-level ridging should keep dry conditions in place during the day. Monday night will run a touch milder with a decoupled southwesterly low level flow and surface dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s. This will keep temperatures only falling back into mid 50s overnight. Surface low pressure shifting over Michigan will push a cold front across Lake Huron and Lake Erie with a chance of some showers to the north and west of the Finger Lakes. Model consensus moves the cold front across western and central New York Tuesday morning. Frontal timing would limit surface instability, especially across western New York. Nonetheless, severe threat not out of the question given sufficient 40+ knot shear supportive of organization and dry air adequate for strong downdrafts. At this time, feel that any organized severe threat appears tied to the ability of convection to organize upstream prior to entering the area from the west. Ahead of the front, 70s will again be possible for at least the Finger Lakes with mid to upper 60s likely elsewhere. Gusty surface gradient winds will also be found through the middle of the day. The front will push east Tuesday night with any lingering showers or storms ending west to east. Cooler westerly flow behind the front will allow overnight temps to slip into the low to mid 40s. High temperature records at BUF/ROC/ART should not be challenged from this period of warmth but new High Low records could be possible Monday night ahead of the front. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... In the wake of Tuesday's cold front...high pressure and cooler/drier will build across the region Wednesday. This will translate into a return to fair and dry weather for our region...with highs on Wednesday mostly ranging through the 50s...except along the eastern shores of the lakes where an onshore flow will restrict temperatures to the 40s. Moving on into the latter portions of next week...the 12Z/08 medium range guidance suite continues to trend faster with the next mid level trough and attendant surface low. With the GFS remaining a fast (and somewhat weaker) outlier...have continued to lean toward a GEM/ECMWF consensus for this package...which suggests shower chances arriving later Thursday and then peaking Thursday evening...before winding down the remainder of Thursday night and early Friday. With the continuation of the overall faster trend to this system...Friday itself now looks to be mainly dry as strong surface-based ridging and drier air builds into the region in its wake...with the return to quiet weather then likely to persist through Friday night and Saturday as the high first crests across New York State...then drifts to the Atlantic coastline. Otherwise temperatures should continue to average out a bit above normal...with daytime highs generally ranging through the 50s...and nightly lows mostly running in the 30s. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions will dominate today and tonight as high pressure remains in control. A mid level deck around 10kft will move east across Lake Ontario to the eastern Lake Ontario region during the afternoon in association with a mid level warm front, otherwise the rest of the area will just see a modest increase in high/thin cirrus level cloudiness today. Winds will remain fairly light, although lake breeze development near KBUF/KIAG could allow for a gusty southwest breeze gusting to around 20 kts this afternoon. Periods of mid/high clouds will cross the region tonight with VFR continuing. Low level wind shear will develop as a 40-50 knot low level jet crosses the region. Outlook... Monday...Mainly VFR. Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday...VFR. Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers. && .MARINE... A ridge of high pressure will drift off the east coast today, keeping fairly light winds in place today. Southwest winds will increase on Monday, but conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory levels with stronger winds likely to impact land areas. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday with somewhat stronger southwest winds, and possibly a few thunderstorms as well. && .HYDROLOGY... There are a few flood warnings still in effect this morning. For more details, see the latest FLW and FLS products. The Black River at Watertown has leveled off near its likely crest overnight in minor flood stage, before slowly falling through today. There will continue to be minor flooding near the river and in agricultural lands in central Jefferson and north central Lewis counties. There is also flooding along the Seneca River and in Cross Lake in Cayuga County. Water levels seem to have leveled off overnight on the Seneca River at the Port Byron gauge. However this is a very slow responding river and could take some time before receding, with high flows likely continuing for a few more days. Water flows in the Seneca River are highly complex and difficult to forecast given the numerous inflows from the Finger Lakes and extensive control structures along the Erie Canal. Water levels will continue to run very high along the Oswego River over the next few days. It appears levels will remain just below 11 feet, which is the level where minor flooding begins along portions of the river, including the riverwalk in the City of Oswego. Flows on the Oswego River are also highly complex and difficult to forecast given the numerous inflows from the Finger Lakes, Oneida Lake, and extensive control structures along the Erie Canal. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK NEAR TERM...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK MARINE...CHURCH/HITCHCOCK HYDROLOGY...HITCHCOCK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KEWX 090603 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 103 AM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017 .AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/ MVFR ceilings have developed at the I-35 TAF sites into the Hill Country with southerly 10 knot flow advecting Gulf moisture up the Escarpment. There is greater uncertainty on whether or not ceilings will lower to IFR, so have accounted for this with a TEMPO group at SAT/SSF between 10-14Z while leaving it out at AUS based on the model consensus. MVFR ceilings will not move into DRT until 9-10Z, with IFR ceilings possible but currently not in the forecast based on higher IFR probabilities currently remaining in the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. Southerly wind gusts will pick up to 20-25 knots late tomorrow morning, with VFR ceilings likely returning by 17-18Z at all sites. MVFR ceilings will come in earlier tomorrow evening and will most likely lower to IFR for the I-35 sites by 4-5Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 85 67 81 64 78 / 10 30 60 70 60 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 84 67 81 64 78 / 10 30 50 70 60 New Braunfels Muni Airport 85 68 81 64 78 / 10 30 50 60 80 Burnet Muni Airport 82 66 79 62 75 / 10 20 60 80 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 89 69 85 66 79 / 10 30 40 60 80 Georgetown Muni Airport 84 67 80 62 77 / 10 20 60 70 60 Hondo Muni Airport 86 68 83 65 79 / 10 30 40 70 80 San Marcos Muni Airport 85 67 81 64 78 / 10 30 50 60 80 La Grange - Fayette Regional 84 67 81 65 79 / - 10 40 50 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 84 69 82 66 79 / 10 30 50 60 70 Stinson Muni Airport 85 69 82 67 79 / 10 30 40 60 70 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Mesoscale/Aviation...LH Synoptic/Grids...Allen  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KLWX 061357 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 957 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move northeast across the Great Lakes today and tonight. Its associated cold front will cross the region today. High pressure then builds over the area through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Low pressure at 13z is located near Cleveland, with the secondary low appearing to be taking shape near the northwestern tip of VA. The attendant cold front stretches south along the Appalachians. Warm front has made some northward progress from earlier this morning, now appearing to stretch from Shenandoah- Prince William-Calvert. Some question how much this can advance given the rain this morning. Round one of isentropic/shortwave induced rain and storms has mainly been affecting areas east of the Blue Ridge. Low levels are still stable, and thus the near term threat for severe is low, although will need to watch cells south of the warm front. Cold frontal precipitation is located along the Appalachians, with a noted increase in lightning near our southwest border in the last hour. As this spreads east, it will likely pose the biggest severe threat of this event, although that is still somewhat in question, since ongoing convection is likely affecting the vertical temperature/moisture profile. Ascent and shear will be there though, it's just a question of organization and instability. Will have to keep an eye on hydro too, although moderate rates and some breaks between storms should limit concerns to urban and low-lying ponding. Current timing suggests the second area of storms will exit by 3 PM. Previous discussion: Both the surface and upper low will be tracking northeast today while deepening impressively and taking on a negative tilt. That will be drawing moisture northward. There will be low-level stability to overcome, but since the timing looks to be a little bit later than yesterday's guidance, there is a fighting chance that can happen...especially south of DC. Hodographs still are exhibiting some low-level curvature as well. Primary concern would be straight line winds. But, if something can develop in advance, that's where the helicity will come into play. Hence, hail and a tornado or two are secondary risks. Best instability, and thus severe risk, will be east of the Blue Ridge. By mid-late afternoon, drier air will be working in as the cold front lifts northeast. There could still be some residual showers as cooler air rushes in, but the thunder threat will be over. Wouldn't rule out some small hail due to low freezing level. Gradient winds will be quite strong in the cool sector, with mean layer mixing above 30 kt. Am not going with a Wind Advisory anywhere yet, but that may be a consideration. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The air mass will continue to dry out tonight as the low lifts northeast and colder/drier air move in. However, northwest flow will be fairly deep, with numerous shortwaves to enhance lift. The only question will be how cold will it get. It appears to be sufficient for a period of upslope snow for the western slopes of the Appalachians late tonight into Friday. Several inches likely, but am not quite as certain as to how wet this snow will be. Considering its April, the answer is probably it will be... and that cuts down on ratios. There is room for another model run before any possible Advisories. The 500 mb trough axis associated with the upper low pivots through Friday morning. Consequences of that will be chance showers almost areawide, followed by another good burst of wind given deep mixing. Not quite as much wind in the mean layer as today, but should still be some 30 kt gusts. Heights finally start to rise Friday night, and continue to do so through Saturday. Still a tight pressure gradient, so anticipate gusty winds will continue...especially during the day with diurnal mixing. Temperatures will start to rebound as well. But, night time temps on the cool side. Think there will be too much wind for frost until Saturday night. The cooler of the two nights will be Friday night. A freeze in outlying areas not out of the realm of possibility. Saturday night will be a pinch warmer, but areas of frost possible Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will be to the south Sunday. Upper level ridging will move overhead by Sunday night resulting in dry conditions through the start of the work week. High pressure will move off the coast Sun night and southerly flow will increase by Monday. SW flow will continue through Tuesday. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday- Tuesday night bringing the chance for rain showers. Temperatures will be above normal Sun-Tue. Cooler air returns for Wednesday. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... IFR conditions affecting the terminals at the moment as round one of rain/storms overspread low level stable airmass. Still have some improvement as this round moves out and warm front lifts north to at least DC, but exact evolution still somewhat question, as round two of showers and storms quickly moves east during the midday hours. A cold front will accompany the second round of storms with a wind shift to the SW. Some strong storms will be possible. Wind gusts to 40-50kt will be the biggest threat, centered near 15-16Z for CHO/MRB, 17-18Z for the metros...give or take an hour or two. Brief aob IFR probable if a thunderstorm directly affects an airfield. From late this afternoon through tonight, VFR will prevail. Gusty winds (30-35 kt) likely as the direction veers from southwest to northwest. Winds will subside overnight before picking back up again Friday. An upper level trough may bring more brief MVFR on Friday, followed by gusty winds. General improvement will come through Saturday night under VFR. Winds will decrease through the period but remain gusty. VFR conditions expected Sun-Mon as well. && .MARINE... Winds have become southerly and increased south of the warm front which stretches from Piney Point to Plum Point. Expect winds on northern waters to increase as the day progresses. Initial round of rain and storms posing more of a lightning threat than wind. Not only will there be a gradient concern, but another period of thunderstorms will affect the waters during the midday, bringing 40-50+ kt winds. Gradient winds behind the storms will support Gales, late afternoon into evening. Winds will diminish somewhat overnight, but another disturbance will bring a renewed period of strong gusty winds Friday into Friday evening. Have extended the Gale Warning for all waters into Friday. Small Craft Advisories likely after that Friday night and Saturday as the pressure gradient slowly relaxes. Southerly winds are expected on the waters Sun-Tue, but finally below Small Craft thresholds. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Water levels running 1.5 to 2 feet above astronomical predictions. Have therefore needed to make some adjustments to Advisories. Have added Calvert and southern Baltimore, where anomalies support at least grazing minor thresholds. Have held off on Harford for now considering high tide is not until 7 PM. On the Potomac, southwest DC and Alexandria should match previous cycle if not exceed it by a few inches. Have an Advisory in effect through the day. Dahlgren will need to be monitored as well, considering how close it came overnight. Should have strong westerly winds tonight behind a cold front, turning northwest by Friday. We are forecasting a gradual decrease. While that will be the case, it remains to be seen how quickly anomalies will be driven out. We may not be completely out of the woods for the Thursday night into Friday morning tide cycle. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ017-018. Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for MDZ011- 014. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ054. WV...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ530>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HTS NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS SHORT TERM...HTS LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...ADS/HSK/HTS MARINE...ADS/HSK/HTS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KLWX 060750 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 350 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will move northeast across the Great Lakes today and tonight. Its associated cold front will cross the region today. High pressure then builds over the area through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Low pressure at 07z is located over Ohio, with its attendant cold front entering western WV/VA/NC. Meanwhile a warm front also associated with this system can be found across southern Virginia. The easterly surface wind field across Maryland/DC/ northern Virginia is reinforcing stable surface conditions, but also will be establishing good overrunning due to southerly 850 mb flow at 30-35 kt. Therefore, anticipate some showers will break out along the I-95 corridor before dawn. At the same time a complex of showers and a few thunderstorms currently crossing WV will be entering the Potomac Highlands. While there is good shear (50 kt bulk 0-3km), instability is lacking. Therefore, this won't be the main event. Both the surface and upper low will be tracking northeast today while deepening impressively and taking on a negative tilt. That will be drawing moisture northward. There will be low-level stability to overcome, but since the timing looks to be a little bit later than yesterday's guidance, there is a fighting chance that can happen...especially south of DC. There always has been plenty of shear with this system, that hasn't changed. However, this daytime timing-- although not optimal-- should be sufficient for about 1000 j/kg CAPE to develop. Hodographs still are exhibiting some low-level curvature as well. Anticipate that thunderstorm development will increase after daylight as storms/updrafts associated with the cold front intersect with the unstable axis. Timing, based on a composite of CAMs, would be near 1400 UTC in the central Shenandoah Valley to near 1800 UTC metro Baltimore. Primary concern would be straight line winds. But, if something can develop in advance, that's where the helicity will come into play. Hence, hail and a tornado or two are secondary risks. Best instability, and thus severe risk, will be east of the Blue Ridge. By mid-late afternoon, drier air will be working in as the cold front lifts northeast. There could still be some residual showers as cooler air rushes in, but the thunder threat will be over. Gradient winds will be quite strong in the cool sector, with mean layer mixing above 30 kt. Am not going with a Wind Advisory anywhere yet, but that may be a consideration. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The air mass will continue to dry out tonight as the low lifts northeast and colder/drier air move in. However, northwest flow will be fairly deep, with numerous shortwaves to enhance lift. The only question will be how cold will it get. It appears to be sufficient for a period of upslope snow for the western slopes of the Appalachians late tonight into Friday. Several inches likely, but am not quite as certain as to how wet this snow will be. Considering its April, the answer is probably it will be... and that cuts down on ratios. There is room for another model run before any possible Advisories. The 500 mb trough axis associated with the upper low pivots through Friday morning. Consequences of that will be chance showers almost areawide, followed by another good burst of wind given deep mixing. Not quite as much wind in the mean layer as today, but should still be some 30 kt gusts. Heights finally start to rise Friday night, and continue to do so through Saturday. Still a tight pressure gradient, so anticipate gusty winds will continue...especially during the day with diurnal mixing. Temperatures will start to rebound as well. But, night time temps on the cool side. Think there will be too much wind for frost until Saturday night. The cooler of the two nights will be Friday night. A freeze in outlying areas not out of the realm of possibility. Saturday night will be a pinch warmer, but areas of frost possible Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will be to the south Sunday. Upper level ridging will move overhead by Sunday night resulting in dry conditions through the start of the work week. High pressure will move off the coast Sun night and southerly flow will increase by Monday. SW flow will continue through Tuesday. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday- Tuesday night bringing the chance for rain showers. Temperatures will be above normal Sun-Tue. Cooler air returns for Wednesday. && .AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... While VFR conditions prevail at most of the terminals early this morning, MVFR/IFR conditions lurk over the Delmarva and have spread west to BWI. Anticipate that flight restrictions will overtake all terminals before sunrise...definitely MVFR if not IFR. Meanwhile, showers and a few thunderstorms over the Appalachians will spread east, and additional showers will develop over the metros. Instability will spread north to DCA/IAD/BWI this morning, as a cold front pivots across the terminals. The result will be a period where strong thunderstorms likely. Wind gusts to 40-50kt will be the biggest threat, centered near 15Z for CHO/MRB, 16Z for DCA/IAD, and 17Z BWI/MTN...give or take an hour or two. While flight restrictions will temporarily improve during the morning as the low stratus erodes, brief aob IFR probable if a thunderstorm directly affects an airfield. From late this afternoon through tonight, VFR will prevail. Gusty winds (30-35 kt) likely as the direction veers from southwest to northwest. Winds will subside overnight before picking back up again Friday. An upper level trough may bring more brief MVFR on Friday, followed by gusty winds. General improvement will come through Saturday night under VFR. Winds will decrease through the period but remain gusty. VFR conditions expected Sun-Mon as well. && .MARINE... Winds have temporarily subsided, but should pick back up again after daybreak. Not only will there be a gradient concern, but a period of thunderstorms will affect the waters during the midday, bringing 40-50+ kt winds. Gradient winds behind the storms will support Gales, late afternoon into evening. Winds will diminish somewhat overnight, but another disturbance will bring a renewed period of strong gusty winds Friday into Friday evening. Have extended the Gale Warning for all waters into Friday. Small Craft Advisories likely after that Friday night and Saturday as the pressure gradient slowly relaxes. Southerly winds are expected on the waters Sun-Tue, but finally below Small Craft thresholds. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Water levels running 1.5 to 2 feet above astronomical predictions. Have therefore needed to make some adjustments to Advisories. On the Bay, Annapolis has crested just above minor flood near 2am. Baltimore is peaking about a 1/4 foot under. But, southerly flow today should sustain anomalies if not increase it further. have issued Advisories for St Mary's and Anne Arundel for the daytime tide cycle, where tide is sooner and confidence is higher. Current projections suggest Baltimore and Harford may reach minor as well. Will assess that further, and issue an Advisory if needed. On the Potomac, southwest DC and Alexandria are peaking just above minor. The daytime tide cycle should match it if not exceed it by a few inches. Have an Advisory in effect through the day. Dahlgren will need to be monitored as well, considering how close it came overnight. Should have strong westerly winds tonight behind a cold front, turning northwest by Friday. We are forecasting a gradual decrease. While that will be the case, it remains to be seen how quickly anomalies will be driven out. We may not be completely out of the woods for the Thursday night into Friday morning tide cycle. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for DCZ001. MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 3 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ017. VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ054. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ530>543. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ530>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HTS NEAR TERM...HTS SHORT TERM...HTS LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...HTS/HSK MARINE...HTS/HSK TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS/HSK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KLOT 031741 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 1241 PM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017 .SHORT TERM... 245 AM CDT Through tonight... Bottom line upfront is it is going to rain today. Models have been struggling to come to a common solution in regard to how precip progresses today likely due to how the models are handling convection over the Gulf Coast. Luckily the latest runs appear to be merging on a single solution where the line of showers just north of I-88 continues north early this morning. Meanwhile the area of showers over central IL weakens as it moves over the southern forecast area (south of I-80). A new batch of showers increase in coverage from the late morning through the afternoon. I have high confidence in showers increasing in coverage through this afternoon, but medium confidence in how quickly it will occur. As my colleague put it, showers are over performing right now so logic would suggest they will continue to do so this afternoon. Therefore, have a more progressive trend, but summed the weather wording up with occasional showers this afternoon. Embedded thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening mainly south of I-80 closer to the surface low. Showers lift northeast with the low overnight. Expecting around 1-1.25 inches of rain to fall with locally higher amounts from thunderstorms. JEE && .LONG TERM... 245 AM CDT Tuesday through Sunday... More rain and possibly snow! A busy pattern continues with another big system and then a break in the action late this week. We should get a small break in precip Tuesday as the first low continues northeast. The GFS has a more substantial upper level vort wave that lingers over the region Tuesday morning. Therefore, the GFS has rainfall lingering into Tuesday morning. The NAM and ECMWF have the system exiting much quicker than the GFS so leaned toward their solutions. The ECMWF and NAM have good agreement with the path of the low Tuesday night and the GFS's low catches up with them Wednesday. All solutions feature a more southern track through downstate IL and central IN. The upper level trough is also impressive as it deepens and becomes negatively tilted Wednesday night into Thursday. So what does this mean? More rain spreads across the region Wednesday. Thinking the majority of thunderstorms will be south of the forecast area closer to the low, but could see a few thunderstorms along and south of I-80. Greater rainfall totals will likely be south of I-80. Rainfall totals from this system will vary from 0.5-1 inch north of I-80 to 1.5-1.75 inches south of I-80. Gusty north winds to 30 MPH are still expected. Interestingly, as cold air aloft filters over the region Wednesday night, expecting rain to transition over to snow. 850mb temps are below freezing and there is enough forcing aloft to suggest moderate, measurable snow is possible. Have medium-high confidence in snow occurring so kept a period of snow in the forecast Wednesday night, which may result in at least a few tenths of snow. Sticking snow all depends on snowfall rates given wet, warm ground. If snow comes down harder than forecast, accumulations could be greater than forecast. Gusty winds continue Thursday with gusts of 30-40 MPH. With such a cool pool aloft, lowered Thursday's high temps into the low 40s using a mixture of CONSRaw and local 925mb climatology. Have high confidence in temps being cooler than what SuperBlend had loaded in. Surface temps and forcing will play a key role in what type of precip falls Thursday. Right now have snow becoming rain as surface temps warm. Snow may continue longer than forecast if forcing creates snowfall rates so high that snow may overcome the surface warm layer. However, this far out, decided to play it safe and have snow turn over to rain with minimal accumulations. Lows Thursday night still look chilly in the low 30s. The synoptic precip will shift east Thursday night but models are suggesting that a lake effect snow band may form over NW IN which makes sense given strong north winds along the long fetch of the lake. High pressure and warmer air are still expected for late this week and the weekend. 60s are expected over the weekend, although models suggest another low may bring rain Sunday night. JEE && .HYDROLOGY... 245 AM CDT The first round of rain arrives today followed by another rain system Wednesday into Thursday. Plenty of deep layer moisture will be available to both of these storm systems, increasing the potential for significant rainfall amounts. For the first system, confidence is currently highest in rainfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches occurring across the area, with locally higher amounts around any thunderstorms that may develop this afternoon. For the mid to late week system, heavy rainfall is possible area wide depending on the track of the low pressure area. Confidence is increasing in regards to the track and timing of the second system, and current indicators suggest much of the area could see another 1 to 2 inches of additional rainfall. Given the saturated ground and ongoing minor river flooding from the March 30th event, these 2 heavy rain events will likely lead to areal flooding and renewed sharp river rises. JEE/Castro/Krein && .AVIATION... For the 18Z TAFs... Area of low pressure is currently near St Louis early this afternoon and is expected to lift near and just south of the Chicago Metro this evening. Showers are currently increasing out ahead of the low track over northern Illinois and northwest Indiana. Expect highest coverage around the terminals from mid to late this afternoon, with off and on precipitation the rest of the evening and overnight. Thunderstorms are most likely south of the terminals, except for GYY which will fall near the edge of the better instability that could support thunderstorms. Variable VFR/MVFR ceilings are expected in the very near term, over the next hour or two, but IFR probability increases through the afternoon and will likely be prevailing through the evening and overnight hours. As the surface low nears the region, expect winds to back from the ENE this afternoon to the NNW late this evening and eventually northwest overnight as the low starts to push east of the region. Because GYY will be closer to the low track, winds may become variable for several hours this evening before also turning northwest overnight. BMD && .MARINE... 221 AM CDT An active week for Lake Michigan remains highly likely due to two northeastward tracking low pressures, with the second probable to bring at least a period of higher end gales on/near Thursday. The first of the lows will reach the far southern tip of Lake Michigan by mid to late evening. Winds should turn north fairly quickly along the Illinois shore in the wake of this system by late evening, and then overnight along the Indiana shore. Wind speeds will increase with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely for a period Tuesday along the Indiana shore and possible early on the Illinois shore. Over the open waters, occasional gales are possible over the northern and central waters late tonight and Tuesday morning. The second system during midweek will be more potent as it will drag in cooler air and have a tight pressure gradient around it induced by it deepening concurrent with a strong high over the Plains states. The low is presently forecast on Wednesday night to move from near the Ozarks region to central Indiana and then more northeastward to Lake Erie during Thursday. Northeast winds will increase through Wednesday and to gales Wednesday evening, and then turn north with higher end gales likely on Thursday. There has been some indications of some storm force gusts of 50 kt over the southern half of the lake on Thursday, but confidence is still low on just how high above 40 kt gusts will reach. Given the preceding chop from tonight/Tuesday morning and then northerly gales, waves should build quite high and quickly Wednesday night along the Illinois and especially Indiana nearshores. Prevailing waves of 14+ feet are presently forecast for at least part of the northwest Indiana shore on Thursday. MTF && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. IN...None. LM...None. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KTOP 282025 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 325 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017 Current WV and VIS imagery show and upper low digging into the Southern Rockies over New Mexico. A short wave trough is rotating around this low developing a surface low over the TX panhandle. As this low pulls out of the region it will undergo further cyclogenesis over the Southern Plains into the Central Plains overnight tonight. As a result of this system developing and low level clouds in place today, highs this afternoon could only reach into the mid 50s. With cloud cover only increasing, expect that temps only dip into the low to mid 40s over the area. As broad scale lift and the warm front approach from the south, expect showers and rain to lift into the area from the southwest. The main threats with this system will come as coverage and intensity of rainfall likely pick up after midnight and reach peak intensity into the rush hour time frame on Wednesday especially for areas along and south of I-70 as isentropic lift increases. From here, the upper low will slowly pin-wheel through the area into the Mid and Southern MS Valley regions with rain wrapping around behind the low itself creating a band of low to mid level frontogenetical response in the deformation zone. Temperature profiles are supporting only rain though so not concerned with mixed precipitation types. Rainfall amounts generally through Thursday morning could range from 1-2 inches with locally heavier amounts possible. Flood concerns will likely increase over some smaller river and creek basins, but due to the precip event being spread out over a longer period of time, most concerns should be limited. There will be some small potential for some elevated storms to also develop over night tonight and again for a period on Wednesday afternoon as shear and instability increase. So a few rounds of embedded thunder are possible along with maybe some small hail. But, overall strong storm potential may stay limited as better quality overall moisture and the surface low feature stay just southeast of the forecast area. With the area remaining largely in the cool sector, highs on Wednesday look to only reach into the 40 north of I-70 with some upper 50s and possibly low 60s in very southern portions of the forecast area. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017 The axis of the upper low meanders over northeast Kansas by Thursday morning. Residual lift on the backside of the low develops scattered showers over much of the CWA through early afternoon, gradually coming to an end by the evening. Weak ridging aloft builds in temporarily on Friday between systems with the best chance for seeing partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. Temperatures hover below normal values in the middle 50s before the area warms back to the 60s Saturday and Sunday, as stronger, easterly winds advect warmer air westward. Great uncertainty still exists on the weekend system dependent on cloud thickness, subsequent temps and precipitation with the next incoming upper trough from the southwest CONUS. Model guidance has had a difficult time resolving the timing and track of this system, with multiple vorticity maxima rotating through. Overall trend shows the initial wave developing the first round of rainfall over northeast Kansas on Saturday, inserting highest pops on Saturday evening. Sunday and Monday have the upper wave being ejected east by another shortwave trough, focusing much of the moisture further south into Oklahoma. Still could see rain showers south of Interstate 70 in east central KS, however qpf amounts are generally light through Monday. Upper pattern remains active through mid next week with both the GFS and ECMWF advertising another upper low sweeping over the northern plains Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017 The 18Z forecast period will remain MVFR in the short term and conditions will likely deteriorate into the 3Z time frame and after. Expecting incoming weather system to develop showers by midnight generally at all terminals. Could see CIG/VIS categories dip into LIFR or perhaps lower for periods of time as areas of heavier showers and rain develop into the 9-12Z time frame. Also, during this time will be the most likely times for areas of embedded thunderstorms to develop due to instability aloft. Winds will likely be gusty at times but persist from the ENE beginning by the 9Z time frame. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Drake LONG TERM...Prieto AVIATION...Drake  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KOKX 241747 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 147 PM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front moves across the region today, with an unsettled weather pattern continuing through the weekend and into the middle of next week. The warm front north of the region retrogrades back into the region as a back door cold front Saturday night and will be west of the area Sunday. The front returns to the region Sunday night into Monday and then passes east of the region Monday night. Another system approaches Tuesday and moves across Tuesday night into early Wednesday. High pressure returns thereafter. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Radar indicates showers were tracking southeastward through the area, and at least some measurable is likely for most of the area. The forecast has been updated accordingly. Temperatures are well above freezing with any sleet signatures on radar now remaining north of the forecast area. As a result, only rain has been forecast. As the mid level energy exists the region late this afternoon, the rain will end. The back edge shows up on radar approaching Port Jervis at 17Z. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Any precipitation will quickly taper off by evening as the short wave moves east of the area and the warm front moves to the north. Dry conditions will be short-lived overnight. By morning, an upper low approaches from the west, increasing forcing for ascent, and in combination with a back door cold front subsequently increases precipitation chances through Saturday evening. Temperatures tonight will be nearly steady as warm advection continues through the night amidst southwesterly flow. By Saturday afternoon temperatures will finally be close to climatological normals, though a cooling trend will be noted late in the day from northeast to southwest as the back door cold front begins to move through. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Overall, an increasingly maritime airmass will be getting entrained into the region from a persistent easterly flow. Rain will ultimately be intermittent with some drizzle from time to time for the remainder of the weekend. Not much of a diurnal temperature range expected for the remainder of the weekend either. Patchy fog is expected Saturday night through Sunday evening as boundary layer becomes saturated from the continuous easterly flow. Rain continues Monday with some more synoptic forcing ahead of the shortwave and surface frontal system moving in. The chances for rain lower Monday night as these aforementioned features move east of the region. Chances for rain are slow to drop off because of increasing uncertainty in the model precipitation fields this timeframe. Rain could linger longer early next week if the frontal system is slower. Aloft, there will be a flattening ridge with the polar jet moving farther north of the region Saturday night. The flattening ridge axis moves across on Sunday. An embedded shortwave on the back end of the ridge approaches Sunday night and moves across Monday. Brief ridging then takes place Monday night into Tuesday. There will be another shortwave moving across Tuesday night. A ridge to the west then starts to build in thereafter for midweek. Starting Saturday night, the surface features to note will be a front retrograding southwest within the region and strengthening high pressure building southeast from Quebec into Maine. The front is a back door cold front. On Sunday, the high pressure area will be moving into the Gulf of Maine and easterly flow will keep a cool marine airmass. The front moves east back into the area Sunday night into Monday with a weak low developing along the front. The flow becomes more southerly. The front and low along it move east of the region Monday night. Another frontal system approaches Tuesday afternoon and moves across Tuesday night. High pressure starts to build in thereafter for midweek. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Potential for some light precipitation early this afternoon...but otherwise dry. A backdoor cold front will cross the region Saturday. Mainly VFR through late tonight but there's a low chance of MVFR or lower at coastal terminals late. By midday Saturday, the front approaches and then passes through with low clouds and some drizzle developing. Conditions deteriorating to MVFR and then IFR during the midday and afternoon hours. LIFR is possible. S-SSW winds this afternoon 10-20 kt with Gusts to 25 kt. Good chance of gusts to near 30 kt at KISP and KJFK. Winds diminish overnight. On Saturday, winds near 15 kt veer to NW and then NE Saturday afternoon as the front moves through. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Low chance of MVFR or lower late tonight. High confidence of MVFR or lower beginning midday Saturday. Wind shift on Saturday may be off +/- 2 hours depending on speed of the front. KLGA TAF Comments: Low chance of MVFR or lower late tonight. High confidence of MVFR or lower beginning midday Saturday. Wind shift on Saturday may be off +/- 2 hours depending on speed of the front. KEWR TAF Comments:Low chance of MVFR or lower late tonight. High confidence of MVFR or lower beginning midday Saturday. Wind shift on Saturday may be off +/- 2 hours depending on speed of the front. KTEB TAF Comments: Low chance of MVFR or lower late tonight. High confidence of MVFR or lower beginning midday Saturday. Wind shift on Saturday may be off +/- 2 hours depending on speed of the front. KHPN TAF Comments: Low chance of MVFR or lower late tonight. High confidence of MVFR or lower beginning midday Saturday. Wind shift on Saturday may be off +/- 2 hours depending on speed of the front. KISP TAF Comments: Low chance of MVFR or lower late tonight. High confidence of MVFR or lower beginning midday Saturday. Wind shift on Saturday may be off +/- 2 hours depending on speed of the front. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Saturday afternoon-Monday...MVFR/IFR probable in stratus, possibly LIFR. .Monday night-Wednesday...MVFR or lower possible. && .MARINE... Winds and seas increase this afternoon with the pressure gradient tightening as high pressure moves east and an area of low pressure approaches from the northwest. Expecting all but NY Harbor to see SCA conds in the afternoon, with advisory conds continuing into the night for the ocean, Eastern Sound and Eastern Bays. Isolated gusts to 35 KT are possible east of Moriches Inlet for a brief period this afternoon, though will likely not be widespread enough for a Gale Warning. Lingering seas around 5 ft are possible on the ocean waters through Saturday afternoon. Initially Saturday evening features sub SCA conditions across the waters. However, SCA conditions resume for the ocean waters late Saturday night lasting through much of the remainder of the weekend for the ocean with easterly flow increasing. Other waters stay below SCA. Sub SCA conditions return Monday and Monday night and stay that way for non-ocean waters through Tuesday. The ocean will have a return to SCA conditions Tuesday ahead of the next frontal system. && .HYDROLOGY... Model run accumulation of rain could reach 0.75 to 1.5 inches with locally higher amounts possible for the period Saturday through early next week. This is over a long enough time period to not have too much excessive runoff. Therefore, not expecting flooding and there are no hydrologic concerns at this time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ330-340. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ335- 345. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MD/JM NEAR TERM...12 SHORT TERM...MD LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...IRD MARINE...MD/JM HYDROLOGY...MD/JM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KOKX 231820 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 220 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds today and passes to the east tonight. A warm front moves across the region Friday. The warm front north of the region Friday night and Saturday will move back southwestward Saturday night into Sunday as a back door cold front. A weak low develops along the front and the low and front eventually move east of the region by Monday night and Tuesday of next week. Another cold front approaches for next Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The forecast is still on track. Current high temperature forecast looks good considering 12z OKX sounding compared to forecast model output. Only slight adjustments were made to hourly temperatures and dewpoints to better match observed trends. The center of high pressure builds to our west, and passes to the south this afternoon. Upper trough tracks further to the east. A dry, chilly day is expected, with lighter NW winds than what was observed yesterday. A few gusts are possible in the NW flow, but winds will diminish this afternoon and back to the west as the high tracks south. Temperatures, after a cold start to the day, will rebound through the 30s, but will peak about 10 degrees below normal, upper 30s to lower 40s. Satellite confirms a clear sky for today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Upper ridge to the west flattens tonight and Friday as closed low moves across the mid section of the country. Surface high pressure passes east of the area. A warm front then approaches Friday morning, with a weak shortwave riding along the top of the ridge, passing across the area Friday. Winds remain light tonight as they become variable or light S/SW. With cold airmass in place, temperatures will fall into the 20s and 30s as high clouds increase. Some locations may radiate into the teens. Still quite cold. Increasing moisture riding over the top of the flattening ridge will approach Friday morning. Light precip associated with warm air advection is anticipated. Expect a brief period of light precipitation to push through, with higher coverage NW zones, and less SE zones per model consensus. As for ptype, this could be problematic. Depending on when precip moves in, looks like shortly after 12Z, a wintry mix is possible. Snow, sleet and freezing rain is a good bet, especially away from the coast. Again, depending on precip onset. Temps near the coast should be warm enough for plain rain. QPF should be under a tenth of an inch, so this is not a big event. But, slick travel is possible as sfc/road temps may be cold enough for some light icing. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper levels convey polar jet staying north of the region during the long term. Mid levels transition from zonal flow Friday night through Saturday night to ridging Sunday, which will be followed by an approaching shortwave on the back end of the ridge. The axis of this trough moves across on Monday. Behind this shortwave, more quasi-zonal flow will be established. There will be a larger shortwave approaching from the northwest for the middle of next week. At the surface, Friday night through Saturday will be when the region is in the warm sector. The warm front will be north of the region. Then, the front will start to shift southwestward, coming back through the region as a back door cold front Sunday. The front will stay west of the region and high pressure will stay well east of the region going through Sunday evening setting up easterly flow. For late Sunday night, the front will slide back east with weak low pressure developing along it. The weak low and front stay near the region Monday with more SE flow developing ahead of the low and finally these move east of the region Monday night and Tuesday. Another cold front approaches for the middle of next week. Overall, an unsettled weather pattern sets up leading to less diurnal temperature range as the airmass becomes more cool maritime from an increasing easterly flow with rounds of light to perhaps moderate rain at times. Temperatures are warmest on Saturday with area in the warm sector as highs are forecast to range from the low 50s to low 60s. Sunday looks to be the coolest day in the long term with a back door cold front moving in as highs that day range from the low to mid 40s. Otherwise the rest of the days feature highs in the upper 40s to low 50s for most locations. Lows at night through the long term are pretty consistent, in the upper 30s to low 40s for a majority of the area. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure builds in from the west today, then slides offshore to the southeast tonight. A warm front them lifts to the north from Friday morning into Friday afternoon. VFR through the TAF period. There is the potential for some light precipitation Friday morning. At this time confidence only high enough for prevailing at KHPN and KSWF which should see a wintry mix, any accumulation should be less than 1 inch. Elsewhere address with PROB30 - with mainly rain/sleet with no sleet accumulation expected at this time. NW flow generally around 10kt this afternoon, with some isolated gusts to 20kt or so. Winds become light and variable this evening. Winds then increase out of the S-SSW Friday morning to around 10kt. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Winds should be within +/- 20 degrees of 300 true/310 magnetic through the remainder of the afternoon. There is a low chance for isolated gusts up to 20 kt into this afternoon. KLGA TAF Comments: Winds should be within +/- 20 degrees of 300 true/310 magnetic through the remainder of the afternoon. There is a low chance for isolated gusts up to 20 kt into this afternoon. KEWR TAF Comments: Winds should be within +/- 20 degrees of 300 true/310 magnetic through the remainder of the afternoon. There is a low chance for isolated gusts up to 20 kt into this afternoon. KTEB TAF Comments: There is a low chance for isolated gusts up to 20 kt into this afternoon. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KISP TAF Comments: There is a low chance for isolated gusts up to 20 kt into this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Friday afternoon...Most likely VFR, very low chance MVFR. LLWS possible. .Friday night-Saturday morning...VFR. .Saturday afternoon-Monday...MVFR/IFR probable, possibly LIFR. .Monday night-Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible. && .MARINE... Winds and seas are expected to remain below advisory criteria and continue to subside today as the center of high pressure moves closer from the west. The winds shift around to the west, then southwest tonight as the high moves east. As the pressure gradient tightens Friday, expect SW winds to increase, and SCA conditions are likely during the afternoon, with gusts 25 to 30 KT. Seas, per guidance, will build once again. SCA chances are higher Friday night as well as late Saturday night through Sunday night, mostly on the ocean. Otherwise sub SCA conditions on other waters and other time periods for the marine long term period covering Friday night through Monday. Ocean seas with wave heights are forecast to stay in SCA range Friday night into Saturday morning. Then the ocean seas are forecast to get below SCA criteria Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening before returning to SCA range late Saturday night through Sunday and perhaps even into early Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... Unsettled weather from this weekend through early next week may result in an inch or more of precipitation. However, this would occur over a prolonged period and would be intermittent, so no hydrologic concerns are anticipated. Snowpack melt in interior sections will continue at a slow rate through Thursday with most areas likely loosing any significant snowpack by Saturday as temperatures rise to above normal readings and lows even remain above freezing. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/PW NEAR TERM...JC/PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...Maloit MARINE...JC/PW HYDROLOGY...JM/PW  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KOKX 231345 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 945 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds today, and passes to the east tonight. A warm front moves across the region Friday. The warm front north of the region Friday night and Saturday will move back southwestward Saturday night into Sunday as a back door cold front. A weak low develops along the front and the low and front eventually move east of the region by Monday night and Tuesday of next week. Another cold front approaches for next Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The forecast is on track this morning. Only slight adjustments were made to temperatures and dewpoints to better match observed trends. The center of high pressure builds to our west, and passes to the south this afternoon. Upper trough tracks further to the east. A dry, chilly day is expected, with lighter NW winds than what was observed yesterday. A few gusts are possible in the NW flow, but winds will diminish this afternoon and back to the west as the high tracks south. Temperatures, after a cold start to the day, will rebound through the 30s, but will peak about 10 degrees below normal, upper 30s to lower 40s. Plenty of sunshine is expected. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Upper ridge to the west flattens tonight and Friday as closed low moves across the mid section of the country. Surface high pressure passes east of the area. A warm front then approaches Friday morning, with a weak shortwave riding along the top of the ridge, passing across the area Friday. Winds remain light tonight as they become variable or light S/SW. With cold airmass in place, temperatures will fall into the 20s and 30s as high clouds increase. Some locations may radiate into the teens. Still quite cold. Increasing moisture riding over the top of the flattening ridge will approach Friday morning. Light precip associated with warm air advection is anticipated. Expect a brief period of light precipitation to push through, with higher coverage NW zones, and less SE zones per model consensus. As for ptype, this could be problematic. Depending on when precip moves in, looks like shortly after 12Z, a wintry mix is possible. Snow, sleet and freezing rain is a good bet, especially away from the coast. Again, depending on precip onset. Temps near the coast should be warm enough for plain rain. QPF should be under a tenth of an inch, so this is not a big event. But, slick travel is possible as sfc/road temps may be cold enough for some light icing. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper levels convey polar jet staying north of the region during the long term. Mid levels transition from zonal flow Friday night through Saturday night to ridging Sunday, which will be followed by an approaching shortwave on the back end of the ridge. The axis of this trough moves across on Monday. Behind this shortwave, more quasi-zonal flow will be established. There will be a larger shortwave approaching from the northwest for the middle of next week. At the surface, Friday night through Saturday will be when the region is in the warm sector. The warm front will be north of the region. Then, the front will start to shift southwestward, coming back through the region as a back door cold front Sunday. The front will stay west of the region and high pressure will stay well east of the region going through Sunday evening setting up easterly flow. For late Sunday night, the front will slide back east with weak low pressure developing along it. The weak low and front stay near the region Monday with more SE flow developing ahead of the low and finally these move east of the region Monday night and Tuesday. Another cold front approaches for the middle of next week. Overall, an unsettled weather pattern sets up leading to less diurnal temperature range as the airmass becomes more cool maritime from an increasing easterly flow with rounds of light to perhaps moderate rain at times. Temperatures are warmest on Saturday with area in the warm sector as highs are forecast to range from the low 50s to low 60s. Sunday looks to be the coolest day in the long term with a back door cold front moving in as highs that day range from the low to mid 40s. Otherwise the rest of the days feature highs in the upper 40s to low 50s for most locations. Lows at night through the long term are pretty consistent, in the upper 30s to low 40s for a majority of the area. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure builds in from the west today, then slides offshore to the southeast into Friday morning. VFR through the TAF period. NW-WNW flow with gusts of around 15-20kt at all terminals from late morning into mid afternoon. Wind gusts should abate by late afternoon, with winds becoming light and variable at all terminals this evening. KJFK could see light SSW-S flow (just above 5 kt) establish itself by late in the TAF period. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: High confidence in winds to the right of 300 true/310 magnetic through 16z, then right around there for the remainder of the afternoon. There is a low chance for isolated gusts up to 25 kt into this afternoon. KLGA TAF Comments: High confidence in winds to the right of 300 true/310 magnetic through 20z, then right around there for the remainder of the afternoon/early evening. There is a low chance for isolated gusts up to 25 kt into this afternoon. KEWR TAF Comments: High confidence in winds to the right of 300 true/310 magnetic through 18z, then right around there for the remainder of the afternoon/early evening. There is a low chance for isolated gusts up to 25 kt into this afternoon. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: There is a low chance for isolated gusts up to 25 kt into this afternoon. KHPN TAF Comments: There is a low chance for isolated gusts up to 25 kt into this afternoon. KISP TAF Comments: There is a low chance for isolated gusts up to 25 kt into this afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Friday...MVFR possible. SW winds G25KT. .Saturday...Mainly VFR. Chance of mid-late afternoon MVFR. .Saturday night and Sunday...MVFR/IFR probable. E-SE winds G20-25KT. .Monday...MVFR possible. && .MARINE... As high pressure builds toward the waters this morning, then south of the waters later today, winds will continue to diminish. Seas subside as well. SCA remains up for the ocean waters this morning. The winds shift around to the west, then southwest tonight as the high moves east. As the pressure gradient tightens Friday, expect SW winds to increase, and SCA conditions are likely during the afternoon, with gusts 25 to 30 KT. Seas, per guidance, will build once again. SCA chances are higher Friday night as well as late Saturday night through Sunday night, mostly on the ocean. Otherwise sub SCA conditions on other waters and other time periods for the marine long term period covering Friday night through Monday. Ocean seas with wave heights are forecast to stay in SCA range Friday night into Saturday morning. Then the ocean seas are forecast to get below SCA criteria Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening before returning to SCA range late Saturday night through Sunday and perhaps even into early Monday. && .HYDROLOGY... Unsettled weather from this weekend through early next week may result in an inch or more of precipitation. However, this would occur over a prolonged period and would be intermittent, so no hydrologic concerns are anticipated. Snowpack melt in interior sections will continue at a slow rate through Thursday with most areas likely loosing any significant snowpack by Saturday as temperatures rise to above normal readings and lows even remain above freezing. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ350- 353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/PW NEAR TERM...JM/PW SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...BC/Maloit MARINE...JM/PW HYDROLOGY...JM/PW  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KICT 171125 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 625 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017 The weak cold front that has been discussed the past couple days extends from the Nebraska/IA state line, to along the NW corridor of KICT Country, to the OK Panhandle. SE of the front south winds from 10 to 20 mph are producing a warm night as evidenced by 2 AM temperatures from 55 to 60. The warmer temperatures were in South- east KS where 20 to 25 mph gusts continued. && .UPDATE... Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017 This Morning: Dense fog that has developed along a SE-moving cold front isn't as transient as thought. With visibilities less than 1/4 mile in many areas, have decided to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for all of South- Central KS until 10 AM CDT. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Night) Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Today: The weak cold front will continue it's SE journey & as it ventures across KS it'll encounter a richer & fairly well-defined moisture channel extending from North TX to Northeast KS. In fact, stratus is streaming almost due N across Eastern KS. Respectable mixing will prevent fog formation but the "elevated" lower-deck moisture deepens & as such drizzle & perhaps some light rain would develop across Southeast KS. Light rain/showers would be the precipitation mode as the front approaches this afternoon. Temperatures will be somewhat challenging. A warm start coupled with some compressional warming dictated raising highs across South-Central & Southeast KS into the mid 70s with OK-bordering counties at the warmer end of the thermal spectrum. This Weekend: It'll turn much cooler tonight as a fairly sharp inverted surface ridge punches almost due S. Reaching KS late tonight, winds would become light easterly & with clear skies lows would range from near 35 in Central KS to the lower 40s across Southern KS. It'll get much warmer. In fact, Sunday will be downright hot with record highs likely in Central KS. The tremendous warmup would be due to a strong mid-upper ridge spreading E across the central third of the CONUS on Sat. The upper ridge does deamplify on Sun as a broad upper trof moves E across Southwestern Canada but as it crosses Southern Canada downstairs troffing commences which would induce increasing SW winds. The afore-mentioned broad upper-deck trof will send a cold front SE that should reach Central KS late Sunday Night. Moisture is lacking so it'll be continued dry. The front's late arrival should prevent lows from dropping below 50 in most areas with the exception being Central KS where lows may settle into the mid 40s. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Next Week: After a dry Mon, a broad, weak inverted ridge will venture across the Northern Plains which would induce lower-deck flow to become easterly. Isentropic ascent is feeble & as such only light rain would occur late Mon Night & Tue (primarily in the morning) by which time the SE-moving high would increase its influence. The chances for showers & embedded thunderstorms increases as the week progresses as a deepening upper-deck trof digs across the Great Basin Wed Night & Thu. Lift doesn't really increase until Wed Night when the upper-deck trof is scheduled to cross AZ & NM. As such the best chances of thunderstorms would occur late Wed Night & Thu. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017 LIFR conditions expected at KICT out of the box with IFR probable at KCNU. Fog is transient and occurring in the vicinity of the cold front, so conditions will rapidly improve once front goes through and drier air spills into the area. Otherwise VFR conditions are forecast. -Howerton && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 358 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2017 Per the above "Long Term" discussion the Grassland Fire Danger will become a tremendous concern on Sun for the increasing S-SW winds coupled with a deepen dry airmass will send RH's to near 20% across the NW sector of the cwa with RH'S across South-Central KS should range from the upper 20s across Reno, Kingman & Harper Counties to the 30% range across the remainder of Central & South-Central KS. The greatest culprit would be S-SW winds from 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 35 mph that'll produce an Extreme Grassland Fire Danger in most of Central & South-Central KS Sun Afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 73 42 71 54 / 10 0 0 0 Hutchinson 72 39 70 52 / 10 0 0 0 Newton 70 40 69 52 / 10 0 0 0 ElDorado 72 40 69 52 / 10 0 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 75 42 72 55 / 10 0 0 0 Russell 70 37 71 51 / 0 0 0 0 Great Bend 71 37 71 52 / 0 0 0 0 Salina 71 37 70 51 / 10 0 0 0 McPherson 71 38 69 51 / 10 0 0 0 Coffeyville 75 42 70 52 / 30 10 0 0 Chanute 73 39 69 50 / 30 0 0 0 Iola 72 39 68 49 / 20 0 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 74 41 69 51 / 30 10 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ052-053- 067>069-082-083-091>093. && $$ UPDATE...EPS SYNOPSIS...EPS SHORT TERM...EPS LONG TERM...EPS AVIATION...PJH FIRE WEATHER...EPS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 121109 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 309 AM AKDT Sun Mar 12 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...Very good agreement in the short term. Surface initialized well at 12/06Z. Agreement continue to improve in the midrange. There are some timing differences with the shortwaves that will be diving into the longwave trough later in the week. In the short term continuity will be maintained by only making minor changes. Will use a pretty even blend for the midrange. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Ridging over the central and eastern interior continues to break down as the 563 dam center over the over the central Bering Sea drifts west. Ridge is now expected to drift to the south and be over Adak Wednesday morning. The longwave trough continues to develop with a 482 dam center in the high arctic and a 516 dam center over Yakutat this morning. A shortwave will dive into the trough today and help to broaden it out. The low in the arctic remains nearly stationary through Monday morning, while the low over Yakutat drifts a bit south and heights fall to 511 dam. A second shortwave will make its way over the ridge and into the trough Tuesday morning as the trough continues to expand east and west. Yet another shortwave working its way over the ridge will move to the northwest coast by Tuesday morning and dive into the trough Tuesday evening. The trough starts to fall apart Thursday as a 506 dam closed low forms south of the Gulf of Alaska, the low center in the arctic starts filling and moves off to the northeast, and ridging over Canada starts pushing to the west. At 850 hpa...Temperatures around -12C will start trending down Monday evening with the -20C isotherm moving south of all but the lower Yukon Delta by Wednesday morning. Surface...1035 mb ridge over the Gulf of Anadyr will start moving south and will be just north of Adak by Wednesday morning. Ridging persists over the arctic coast and Chukchi Sea with a 1029 mb high over the western Brooks Range. A the high in the Gulf of Anadyr moves south a 1029 mb center will develop over St Lawrence Island Tuesday morning and slide south over the eastern Bering Sea. A weather front will develop over the Siberian arctic Monday night and move to the northwest coast mid day Tuesday and falls apart as it moves east over the arctic coast. A 986 mb low will move to the southeast panhandle this evening and work north into the northern Gulf of Alaska Monday morning at 996 mb, then persist in the area through the week. Ridging over the Brooks Range will slide south over the interior Tuesday with a 1024 mb center developing over the middle Koyukuk, then sliding east over the upper Yukon Flats Wednesday morning. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...As the upper level shortwaves move across the area, expect some low clouds and flurries or light snow to accompany them. The first on is moving east across the area today and some low stratus and flurries have moved over the northwest coast. Not expecting any significant snowfall as these waves move through. Winds generally west at 10 to 20 mph, with the exception of the area east of Deadhorse where winds Tuesday will be gusting to around 40 mph as the gradient gets pinched over that area. West Coast and Western Interior...Some patchy dense fog around Kotzebue sound this morning, otherwise will be pretty quiet the next couple of days with high pressure persisting over the area. Generally northerly flow over the area will bring some cooler temperatures to the area over the next several days with the coldest temperatures Wednesday. GOES MVFR Probability Product at 12/1030Z indicates quite a bit of stratus still floating around under the ridge, but expect that as cooler and drier air moves slowly into the area the stratus will dissipate. Winds on the west coast will generally be light with a few exceptions in channeled areas where winds gusting to 25 mph can be expected. Central and Eastern Interior...Some clouds and possibly flurries today, but fairly benign weather across the interior the next couple days. Winds generally light with the exception of the Alaska Range passes where north winds gusting to 35 mph can be expected on the south end of the passes. Temperatures will slowly fall this week as cooler air moves in. Overnight lows will be highly dependent on cloud cover. If skies clears some areas will see temperatures fall to around 30 below starting Wednesday morning. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 17  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KMLB 112056 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 356 PM EST Sat Mar 11 2017 .DISCUSSION... Tonight...High pressure to the north will elongate eastward into the Atlc and winds will veer out of the east then southeast overnight. Airmass will remain fairly dry so rain chances look too low to mention. Isolated showers over the Atlc may increase in coverage a bit later tonight but should remain mostly offshore in the developing SE flow. Low temps in the low to mid 60s except upper 50s Okeechobee. Sunday...Increasing moisture and forced ascent will lead to widespread clouds and scattered to numerous showers developing. Have pushed back the timing for the highest rain chances to the afternoon. There should be scattered showers over the Atlc north of the Cape near the axis of an inverted sfc trough early in the day with precip breaking out over land during the day. Have adjusted PoPs down a bit showing 50-60 percent over land and limiting the 80 PoPs over the Atlc. Limited instability should prevent thunder across the north but warmer temps across the south combined with a slug of moisture lifting north and steep lapse rates may be sufficient to produce one or two storms across our southern counties. Sun Night-Mon Night...The mid-level flow will range from westerly to southwesterly during this time with various, weak, embedded shortwave impulses in the flow. PWAT values will average 1.30-1.50 inches across ECFL. At the surface, a weak boundary across the central peninsula along with overrunning moisture will allow for mostly cloudy skies with periods of light to moderate rainfall. A stronger cold frontal boundary will push across the area late Mon night bringing a gradual end to rainfall as well as drier air from the north. Cooler air aloft at 500 mb (-12C to -14C) will exist over the area. At the moment will keep thunder mention absent from the grids/zones, but cannot rule out an isolated rumble of thunder at some point Mon-Mon evening. PoPs remain elevated through the period, 30-40pct west to 50-60pct east Sun night, 60pct most areas Mon, and 50-60pct Mon night. Lows U50s/L60s Sun night and generally M-U50s Mon night except L60s Martin Cty. Highs Mon likely to vary due to cloud thickness/precip and generally M-U70s along I 4 with near 80 to 82 degrees further southward. .Previous Extended Forecast Discussion... Tuesday-Friday...large scale troughing over the eastern half of the CONUS will keep conditions dry and cooler than normal, other than a small lingering shower chances across the southern CWA early Tuesday. A reinforcing front drops through the CWA on Wednesday, with high pressure slowly settling south toward Florida through Friday. Some chilly min temps for mid March are expected from mid to late week. Current forecast shows mins in the 40s to L50s, and maxes generally in the 60s to the lower 70s for most of the CWA. && .AVIATION... VFR expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours. Winds will be from the NE/ENE this afternoon and evening with breezy conditions mainly confined to the coastal terminals. Winds will decrease around 00Z this evening before gradually turning more from the E/ESE during the overnight hours. By 12Z on Sunday winds will be from the S/SSE. && .MARINE... Tonight...Winds will veer out of the east then southeast overnight as high pressure ridge axis to the north elongates eastward into the Atlc. Also, an inverted sfc trough will begin to form over north FL and the adjacent Atlc. The pressure gradient will support 15 knots of wind initially across the north with 10-15 knots across all the waters overnight. Will allow the Small Craft Advisory to expire at 4 pm as seas have likely fallen below 7 ft offshore Volusia and Brevard but will carry a Caution headline for seas up to 6 feet there. Sunday...A tricky wind forecast as inverted sfc trough is forecast to push into our northern and central waters. This will reduce the pressure gradient temporarily but a wedge of N/NE winds 15-20 knots is forecast to reach the Volusia waters in the afternoon so will probably need a Caution headline there. Across the south, southeast winds around 10 knots are expected. Seas 3-5 feet. Sun Night-Thu...Unsettled weather conditions thru Mon night with inverted troughing across the area and impulses aloft traversing the area from the GOMEX providing periods of light to moderate precip. Cannot rule out isold thunder Mon-Mon night. A stronger cold front will push through the area Mon overnight gradually clearing out the precip and allowing drier air to move into the area again Tue-Thu as high pressure builds into the area. Expect coastal troughing along the east coast Sun night allowing for a degree of variability for onshore wind direction, then a weakening gradient during the day on Mon with generally light winds. Offshore flow expected Mon evening with wind speeds increasing and SCEC conds possible overnight away from the coast. Moderate to fresh NW-WNW winds are expected Tuesday-Tuesday night ahead of a strong reinforcing cold frontal passage Wednesday. A strong NW to northerly wind surge behind this front looks pretty certain to produce high seas and resultant SCA conditions, especially well offshore. && .Fire Weather... Tue-Thu...Both cooler/drier air expected behind a cold front moving into the area Mon overnight and again behind another front late Wed. We may see some afternoon RHs dip into the M-U30s for a couple of hours Tue afternoon along I 4, then U20s/L30s across much of interior Wed-Thu. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 61 75 62 75 / 10 60 60 60 MCO 61 80 62 79 / 0 50 40 60 MLB 64 78 63 80 / 10 60 50 60 VRB 64 79 63 81 / 0 60 50 60 LEE 61 77 60 76 / 10 50 30 60 SFB 61 78 62 79 / 10 50 50 60 ORL 63 79 62 78 / 10 50 40 60 FPR 63 80 61 82 / 0 60 50 60 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kelly LONG TERM....Sedlock AVIATION...Combs  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 111154 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 254 AM AKST Sat Mar 11 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...Overall performance has been pretty good, lacking a bit in the details, but not too bad. There has been good run to run continuity, but the pattern has been relatively benign the last couple days. Surface initialized well at 11/06Z with only minor differences in the center pressures. There is much better agreement in the midrange with the long wave trough digging south over the central and eastern interior to the Gulf of Alaska starting Sunday night. For short term will use mostly continuity making only minor changes to the temperature and wind grids. Beyond that will use a blend leaning just a bit toward the GFS since is has had a better handle lately. Aloft...At 500 hpa...566 dam center over the central Bering Sea with ridging extending east over Anvik to Tanana to Old Crow YT this morning. This is allowing a relatively fast flow around the base of the low in the high arctic with a shortwave moving east over the arctic coast today. The shortwave will strengthen a bit as it interacts with a col over the central and eastern interior as it continues to move east. Ridging will build back to the east over the interior after the shortwave moves through. Zonal flow will continue over the arctic with several shortwaves moving through the flow and east over the arctic coast through Sunday. The longwave trough will dig hard to the south Monday and the flow will become northwest with the shortwaves moving over the Chukchi Sea and Kotzebue Sound. At 850 hpa...Temperatures around -10C, but the will trend down starting Monday with a return to -20C to -25C by Tuesday night persisting through the remainder of the week. Surface...1035 mb ridge over the Eastern Bering Sea moves to the north central Bering Sea today and settles over the Gulf of Anadyr tonight and persists in the area through Monday. Ridging over the eastern interior with a 1040 mb center over the Yukon Territory will move east as troughing develops over the central and eastern interior that will persist into midweek. A 990 mb low in the northeast Pacific will move to the eastern Gulf of Alaska Sunday night and into the northern Gulf by Monday afternoon. Easterly flow will develop over the southeast interior bringing moisture into the area and good potential for overrunning snow to develop in the central and eastern interior. In the arctic a 972 mb low in the high arctic will persist spinning waves east across the arctic through the Wednesday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Active pattern will continue into the new week as low in the high arctic will spin several waves over the arctic that will bring periods of snow to the area. Some patchy freezing drizzle will occur today. Winds will be relatively tame the next few days. Winds will be west at 10 to 25 mph with just some local blowing snow. Temperatures will cool off the next few days with highs falling to around zero and lows in the teens below for much of the coastal area. Cooler temperatures can be expected inland. West Coast and Western Interior...Mostly clear in the inland areas and over the lower Yukon Delta. Stratus north of the surface ridge axis continues to impact areas and can be clearly seen on the NPP-VIIRS SPoRT 24 hr Microphysics RGB product at 11/0059, and the GOES MVFR Probability Product shows it covers and extensive area over the eastern Bering Sea, west coast, and Kotzebue Sound. There is some snow being reported with the stratus in some of the coastal areas, but only minor accumulations are expected. Also, some patchy freezing drizzle on the Bering Strait coast and Chukchi Sea coast around Point Hope. Winds on the west coast will generally be light with a few exceptions in channeled areas where winds gusting to 25 mph can be expected. Temperatures a bit warmer through Sunday, then a cooling trend. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly cloudy again today. Flurries coming to an end in most areas this morning, then another round of light snow or flurries tonight as an upper level wave moves through the area. Not expecting much accumulation. Sunday will bring some clearing skies. For Monday expecting that overrunning snow to develop, so expect light snow moving in from the east during the day Monday with a couple inches possible. Winds generally light with the exception of the Delta Junction area where winds will be gusty to around 20 mph today. Highs in the teens to lower 20s for most areas with lows zero to 10 below. Extended outlook...Models are indicating more cold air moving over the state starting next Tuesday and a return to temperatures well below normal for March. Latest model runs indicate 850 hpa temperatures around -20C, and that would produce surface temperatures of -25F to -35F, but cloudy conditions over the interior are looking more likely, so lows will likely be in -10F to -25F range. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freezing Rain Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ207- AKZ213. && $$ SDB MAR 17  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KEWX 052331 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 531 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017 .AVIATION... MVFR/VFR ceilings continue in place with some partial clearing being noted. Ceilings should quickly lower back into MVFR and IFR categories shortly after sunset with LIFR probable by sunrise. Visibilities may also lower into IFR categories and will show that in the TAFs. Conditions will be slow to improve tomorrow with IFR until around noon with MVFR possible for most of the afternoon once again. Southerly winds will continue with speeds up to 20 knots in the afternoon hours tomorrow. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CST Sun Mar 5 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)... For the rest of the afternoon, isolated showers and thunderstorms should continue for the easternmost counties in the CWA (Fayette, Lavaca and DeWitt). These storms are being primarily driven by low level instability and moisture. Above the 850 mb level, winds become light and westerly with far less moisture. Thus, other than a few lightning strikes and a few briefly heavy downpours, believe this activity should stay rather benign. Rich low level moisture will continue to dominate the region tomorrow resulting in plenty of low clouds and fog overnight. Draped much of the CWA in patchy fog after midnight in the grids as much of the hi- res indicators show small dewpoint depressions across the majority of the CWA. LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)... A cold front passage has been well advertised in the models for Tuesday thus far. Both GFS and ECMWF have this front entering the northern CWA between 12Z and 18Z Tuesday. The 12Z model suite shows a line of showers and storms associated with this front. For the time being...the best shot for QPF looks to be favored in the eastern half of the CWA due to better moisture availability but the lack of favorable upper level dynamics should prevent much in the way of storm severity. After FROPA Tuesday, there are some signs of 850 mb overrunning which may result in lingering drizzle overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Then the front retrogrades back as a warm front Wednesday and should increase PoP chances for the southern half of the CWA. Another weak shortwave is then progged to come across Thursday maintaining PoP chances through the end of the week. At this time, while rain will be in the forecast just about every day of the week, no hazards are expected beyond general thunderstorm threats. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 64 79 64 75 52 / 10 10 20 50 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 64 80 65 75 52 / 10 10 20 50 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 64 79 65 76 54 / 10 10 20 50 10 Burnet Muni Airport 61 77 60 71 48 / 10 10 20 20 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 60 83 61 79 57 / - - 10 20 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 63 78 62 73 49 / 10 10 20 40 10 Hondo Muni Airport 62 80 63 78 56 / 10 10 20 30 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 64 79 65 76 54 / 10 10 20 50 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 65 80 67 77 55 / 20 20 20 50 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 64 80 64 77 56 / 10 10 20 40 10 Stinson Muni Airport 64 80 65 78 58 / 10 10 20 40 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Mesoscale/Aviation...Hampshire Synoptic/Grids...17 Public Service/Data Collection...Williams  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KHGX 270546 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1146 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017 .AVIATION... Storms moving in from the west have dissipated and a few showers continue near HOU in scattered swath to near JAS. Winds from the southeast 5-12 knots with MVFR CIGS filling in across the region. The WAA will continue throughout the night with a slow increase in LL moisture. CIGS should continue to lower most of the night and widespread CIGS of 1000-1500ft should be common before 12z. A few showers should still develop over the the northern areas through 10z...for now will carry VCSH for UTS. Some haze and light fog possible near the coast in the morning. A few showers possible tomorrow but with LLJ pulling away and the 850-700mb flow veering a little more to the SW and WSW agree that capping should get stronger limiting coverage and depth of SHRA. Near the coast in the late afternoon hours may see visibility lower as 70 dewpoints flow toward the coast traversing the cooler shelf waters but with enough mixing and drier air aloft to limit the fog thickness. 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017/ DISCUSSION... Made a few tweaks to the forecast for the rest of tonight...mainly to account for the ongoing POP trends. Speed convergence/WAA help- ing to produce scattered SHRA across the central/southern portions of the CWA this evening. Thunderstorms that developed near EWX/San Marcos earlier this evening are slowly making their way into SE TX at present, but are weakening. Rain chances are expected to remain in place for much of the region overnight, as a shortwave moves in from West TX. Highest POPS will be over our northern areas...based on the progged track of the disturbance...but the continued strong WAA could produce widely scattered SHRA elsewhere through sunrise. 41 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017/ Dense high cloudiness atop lower cu cloud streets this afternoon as temperatures have warmed into the lower 70s. Southwestern warm and more moist air riding up and over the relatively cooler drier surface dome of air providing just enough gentle lift along the theta e surfaces to generate scattered light showers. Periods of light rain will will occur through tomorrow afternoon. The passage of a shortwave disturbance currently traveling into New Mexico and into the northern TX tonight may generate enough lift over central state to pop a few thunderstorms east of the I-35 corridor that would move east to northeast. These evening storms may clip the far northern counties of the forecast area...possibly with a rogue strong cell or two latter tonight into early Monday morning. If this shortwave can push parcels past a near 7-8H warm nose...there would be ample CAPE (in tandem with an exiting 30-40 kt low level jet) to set the stage for a more conducive strong convection scenario. Again...low chances for thunderstorms to mainly pass over the far northern counties generally north of a Brenham to Huntsville to Livingston line during the overnight hours. Mainly overcast and mild start to Monday morning with this continued warm air advection pattern keeping slight to low end rain chances in place over the northern CWA through the afternoon hours. Middle to upper 60 dew point air riding over slightly cooler shelf water in the middle 60s may allow maritime fog to develop...confidence in patchy fog/haze around Galveston Island and surrounding waters tonight. Despite the mostly cloudy and showery conditions...warmer mid-level flow pulling in moist air will equate to subsequent day warming back into the lower to middle 80s the next couple of days. A relatively uneventful Monday will lead to a stronger onshore wind day Tuesday...abnormally warm and cloudy with slight shower chances over the far interior. A passing northern CONUS upper trough will allow Rocky Mtn lee pressure to lower...the associated cold front will travel across the state early Wednesday. NWP has speed up the front from previous runs and now has the boundary passing through during the morning (daylight?) hours. Along or ahead of this front...mainly showers with embedded storms. The faster 84 hr NAM has a stout cap for the lift to contend with...the slower GFS has a more favorable profile to tap into in producing more thunder. A fast mover of a boundary so the main threats from any early Wednesday QLCS appears to be strong winds. The cool and dry backing air mass/High will scour out skies on Thursday and regulate daily warmth to the near normal upper 60s...afternoon humidities to fall into the 20s/30s. A couple of starry sky early mornings in the 40s Thursday and Friday. The next system coming down the pike is progged to affect the region next weekend. Broad low/open wave trough hanging back over western Mexico will set the stage for the development of a lower Texas coast surface trough. Better low level convergence and a disturbance or two passing through within the southwesterly flow (per ECMWF) has POPS up in the high end to likely category Sunday. 31 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 63 81 65 83 63 / 50 30 10 30 30 Houston (IAH) 66 82 66 84 70 / 40 30 10 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 68 76 67 78 69 / 20 30 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 11 AM CST Monday for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ Discussion...41 Aviation/Marine...45  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KLMK 191417 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 917 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 ...Updated Forecast Discussion... ...Forecast Update... Issued at 915 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 Updated forecast to increase sky cover, extend patchy fog and lower highs today across the entire area. 12z soundings from ILN, ILX, and OHX along with recent PIREPS and GOES estimated cloud thicknesses indicate the stratus layer about 1500 to 2000 ft thick this morning across central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Surface high pressure resides over central Kentucky while the mid/upper ridge axis remains west along the MS River. HRRR and RAP soundings hold onto the saturation in the low level inversion through at least mid afternoon while the mid/upper ridge axis slowly pushes east. Overall surface wind fields will be very light as well. In short, think the stratus will linger longer into the day so have trended forecast toward more mostly cloudy to overcast. Subsequently, lowered highs 3-5 degrees, especially along/east of I-65 where clouds are most likely to hang around. This matches with some of latest guidance coming in showing highs in the low/mid 60s. It's possible some areas around the Bluegrass may stay below 60. Area observations and webcams do show some patchy fog across parts of the area, so extended that in the forecast a few more hours. Issued at 628 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 The dense fog has mainly stayed to the west and south of the area this morning with just occasional visibility drops to half a mile or less. Have therefore decreased the fog wording in the grids to patchy. In addition, some drizzle has been reported and can be seen on radar. This was added into the forecast for the next few hours across southern IN and north central KY. .Short Term (Now through Monday)... Issued at 247 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 The axis of the upper level low has shifted east of the region tonight. A few light rain showers or sprinkles may continue over east central KY for the next hour or two, but for the most part the rain has ended. The main concern for early this morning is the potential for fog development. Areas of dense fog have formed west of the forecast area across west central KY and parts of southwestern IN. The latest mesoscale guidance continues to indicate this fog will spread eastward over the next few hours. The primary area for fog looks to be mainly along and north of the Ohio River. Will continue to monitor webcams and observations and assess the need for a Dense Fog Advisory. If fog does form, it will likely linger into the mid morning hours before mixing out. Regardless of lower visibilities, the stratus deck looks to hang around through the morning hours under an inversion. We should finally start to see clouds break up by mid day or into the early afternoon. For tonight, surface high pressure will be centered to the northeast of the region with ridging aloft. An inversion will again develop with low level moisture remaining in place, particularly along and north of the Bluegrass Parkway. Some patchy fog may develop tonight in this area. Despite the clouds, we should see a decent warm up today with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Highs for Monday will top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s. .Long Term (Monday Night through Saturday)... Issued at 304 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 Monday night will start out dry under the influence of the upper level ridging. However, a shortwave and trailing front will begin to approach the region early Tuesday. As this feature passes through on Tuesday it will bring a chance for showers. Will continue to carry 50% or less chance for rain with this system. Wednesday looks to be dry as we sit in between systems. By Thursday, however, low pressure system will develop across the Plains. A warm front moving north across the region will bring another chance for showers on Thursday. Friday into Friday night the lower pressure system will move from the Midwest into the Great Lakes region. Friday we look to be solidly in the warm sector of this system with dewpoints rising into the mid 50s and high temperatures in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Soundings show an impressive wind field aloft and 500-1000J/kg CAPE. Some strong storms could certainly be possible with this system. Given how far out it is, a lot could change, but it does bear watching this week. Behind the cold front, high pressure will build in Saturday bringing dry weather. Temperatures will remain well above normal through the work week topping out in the mid 60s to lower 70s each day. Lows will generally be in the mid 50s, warmer than the normal highs for this time of year. We will see a sharp cool down on Saturday behind the front with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s Saturday and Sunday. && .Aviation (12Z TAF Update)... Issued at 607 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 Low cloudiness and fog will be the main aviation issues at the terminals early in the forecast period. Ceilings are expected to run in the IFR range at the terminals this morning with mainly MVFR vsbys. IFR vsbys will be likely at the beginning of the period at KBWG. Conditions will slowly improve at the terminals by late morning with some clearing developing in the afternoon hours. KBWG and KSDF look to mix out later this afternoon with perhaps low clouds hanging on slightly longer over at KLEX. Winds today will be light and variable. Outlook for tonight, VFR conditions are expected. However, latest 19/06Z guidance suggests that fog may become an issue early Monday morning at all the terminal sites. && .Climate... Issued at 303 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2016 Record temperatures for the next few days. Louisville: Fri. Feb. 17 record high: Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 56 (1882) Sun. Feb. 19 record high: 74 (1939) Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 55 (1994) Mon. Feb. 20 record high: 76 (2016) Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 51 (1878) Tue. Feb. 21 record high: 70 (1930*) Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 61 (1922) Wed. Feb. 22 record high: 71 (1992*) Lexington: Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 50 (1971*) Sun. Feb. 19 record high: 75 (1939) Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 54 (1994) Mon. Feb. 20 record high: 72 (2016*) Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 54 (1997) Tue. Feb. 21 record high: 71 (1874) Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 55 (1922) Wed. Feb. 22 record high: 70 (1922) Bowling Green: Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 53 (1994*) Sun. Feb. 19 record high: 73 (1994*) Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 55 (1994) Mon. Feb. 20 record high: 75 (2014*) Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 54 (1897) Tue. Feb. 21 record high: 75 (1930*) Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 55 (1961*) Wed. Feb. 22 record high: 74 (1922) Frankfort: Sun. Feb. 19 record warm low: 51 (1939) Sun. Feb. 19 record high: 76 (1939) Mon. Feb. 20 record warm low: 47 (1949) Mon. Feb. 20 record high: 73 (2016) Tue. Feb. 21 record warm low: 47 (1906) Tue. Feb. 21 record high: 72 (1997) Wed. Feb. 22 record warm low: 49 (1935*) Wed. Feb. 22 record high: 72 (1922) * most recent occurrence, record occurred in previous years as well && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........ZT Short Term.....EER Long Term......EER Aviation.......MJ Climate........EER  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 141259 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 359 AM AKST Tue Feb 14 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...Good run to run continuity the last couple days. They initialized well against the 14/06Z surface analysis. Good agreement on position and only a millibar or two difference on the central pressures. There is better agreement today into the midrange than there was yesterday but they still diverge quite a bit in the extended periods. Will lean on an equal blend of the 00Z model runs for the near term today. Temperatures remain difficult as they will warm significantly again today so that will make the model diurnal trend almost useless, so will need to manually force them. Aloft...At 500 hpa...486 dam low is 150 nm south of Sand Point and will rotate back to the north to be over Bristol Bay by Wednesday morning at 988 mb, then moves northeast to 100 nm north of King Salmon over the Nushagak Delta by Thursday morning. By Friday morning it will merge with another low over Norton Sound with a 500 dam center and a trough extending south to a low near Dutch Harbor. The ridging over the southeast interior has shifted to the north a bit with the axis extending from over Dawson YT to Deering. The ridge will be pushed back into Canada a bit as a shortwave moves up the western flank of the ridge over the state today. The shortwave is over the gulf coast this morning and will lie from Togiak to McGrath to Fairbanks to Dawson this afternoon, and from Togiak to Anvik to Bettles to Komakuk Beach YT this evening then the western portion merges with the trough over the west coast and the eastern half moves northeast into the Canadian arctic. The ridge will build back in behind the shortwave and the axis will lie from Kaltag to Delta Junction to Carmacks YT tonight, and from Elim to Fairbanks to Dawson YT by Wednesday morning. The ridge will continue to slide north and will lie from Buckland to Old Crow YT Wednesday evening. A second shortwave rotating around the low over the southwest will move to the Gulf coast Wednesday evening and move into the interior Thursday morning. At 850 hpa...No changes here, the zero isotherm makes an appearance over the interior and pushes north to lie from Old Crow YT to Fairbanks to Mcgrath this morning then recedes back into Canada tonight. Surface...Broad area of cyclonic flow around a 957 mb low 100 nm east of Kodiak City covers all but the arctic coast this morning, and will persist through the week as the low eventually moves over the southwest mainland as it slowly fills. Northeast gradient winds have developed ahead of the front over some higher elevation areas, and aligned valleys will also see some higher winds in all the interior zones and that will persist into late this evening before they diminish. Ridging extends east from a 1023 mb high in siberia over the arctic coast. Leeside troughing has developed north of the Alaska Range and the Tanana Valley jet has set up in the Delta Junction area. A warm front has moved north to lie from Dillingham to Farewell Lake to Fairbanks to Chalkyitsik this morning and will continue to move north to eventually lie northeast across the state from Bethel to Old Crow YT this evening, then slowly moves north and west as it dissipates by Wednesday evening. A second front will move into the southern interior Wednesday evening and slowly move north and west again as it weakens. The northern half will eventually move off to the northeast while the western half will merge with a trough over the western interior Thursday night. Gap flow winds in the Alaska Range today with the strongest gradient across the eastern Alaska Range east of Healy and west of the Tok Cutoff. Weak ridging north of the Brooks Range will persist through Thursday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Decaying front over the northwest coast will leave some stratus behind, and maybe a few flurries today, otherwise cooling temperatures from Point Barrow west. To the east of Point Barrow some light snow will spread west across the area slowly through the day. The GOES MVFR Probability product at 14/1015Z indicating quite a bit of MVFR conditions over the coastal areas and arctic plain. Observations indicate low ceilings have moved over much of the area, so expect them to persist with a few breaks, and they may lift a bit when the snow moves in. Temperatures cooling from Point Barrow west today as some colder air advects into the area. Slightly warmer to the east as the decaying warm front over the interior moves into the area. Winds will be all over the dial today but mainly north from Point Barrow west and southwest to the east. Wind speeds generally 10 to 20 mph with the strongest winds east of Deadhorse. West Coast and Western Interior...Biggest issue will be the winds again today, along with the potential for ground blizzard conditions in the Bering Strait and on St Lawrence Island. Will issue a Winter Storm Warning for zone 213. Winds will remain strong through the remainder of the week over the Bering Strait with relatively strong winds in Norton Sound and the Chukchi Sea. Inland areas will see northeast winds 5 to 20 mph locally gusting to 30 mph though some higher elevation will see stronger winds to near 40 mph today. Expect some flurries and fog with the stratus over the Bering Strait and St Lawrence Island with no significant accumulation. In the lower Yukon Delta snow is developing and will spread northeast as the trough sets up. Accumulations of 2 to 5 inches can be expected through Wednesday morning in the middle Yukon Valley and lower Yukon Delta with lesser amounts to the north and west as the front slowly moves into those areas as it dissipates. Central and Eastern Interior...Weather front moving across the area today with a trough setting up to the north and west of the Tanana Valley. A slight chance of some freezing rain as the front passes through the area, but no accumulation expected. The heaviest snow will be to the west and north of Fairbanks with 2 to 4 inches possible. The heaviest snow will occur in the upper Yukon Flats and the upper porcupine river. There continues to be a slightly better chance of freezing rain in the Alaska Range and along the leeside of the range south of Fairbanks, but expect the models are overdoing the precipitation and it will be chinooked out. Strong winds continue in and around Delta Junction as the Tanana Valley jet has set up with the leeside trough and low over the Tanana Flats, and ridging to the east. Gap flow winds developing in the eastern Alaska Range today will be gusting to around 65 mph so will issue a Winter Storm Warning for the winds and near blizzard conditions possible near the passes. Temperatures continue to rise today with highs around Fairbanks in the mid 30s. They will continue to be warm Wednesday but may fall a couple degrees as some cooler air filters into the area from the west. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory for AKZ223. Winter Storm Warning for AKZ213-AKZ226. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ214-AKZ218-AKZ219. Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225. && $$ SDB FEB 17  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 131230 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 330 AM AKST Mon Feb 13 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...Initialized well against the 13/06Z surface analysis. Good agreement on position and strength of major features across the area of concern. They remain in good agreement into the midrange before diverging significantly. Will use an equal blend for the near term today. Temperatures will be difficult since models will not produce a good trend, so will need to manually force them. Aloft...At 500 hpa...490 dam low that drifted south over the west coast is over Bristol Bay. The low will drift over Sand Point by Tuesday morning at 487 dam, then rotate back north over eastern Bristol Bay by Wednesday morning at 490 dam, then moves north over the lower Yukon Delta by Thursday morning at 498 dam, and over Norton Sound by Friday morning at 500 dam. Ridging over the west coast of North America has push in over the mainland alaska west to the middle Yukon Valley and north to the Brooks Range this morning and will persist into Tuesday morning before it weakens and slowly starts to retreat Tuesday as a shortwave pushes north over the ridge. Ridging will push back to the west over the Brooks Range behind the shortwave on Wednesday. High in the arctic a 490 dam low will spin a shortwave over the northwest and central arctic coast today, then a second shortwave will dig the trough south over the Chukchi Sea Wednesday where is stalls as the ridging builds west and slides north from the Brooks Range to the arctic coast Thursday. At 850 hpa...The zero isotherm makes an appearance over the interior and pushes north to lie from Old Crow YT to Fairbanks to Mcgrath by Tuesday morning before receding back into Canada. Surface...A 981 mb low in the high arctic will spin a warm front east over the northwest and central arctic coast today then pulls it north. Weak ridging will persist over the Brooks Range and northern Interior. A 962 mb low 200 nm southwest of Kodiak Island is spinning an occluded front over the central and eastern interior this morning and will continue to spin moisture north as it moves into Bristol Bay tonight at 966 mb. Leeside troughing has developed north of the Alaska Range and the Tanana Valley jet has set up in the Delta Junction area. A second wave sent north by the low will move over the Alaska range on Tuesday morning and gap flow winds will develop in the Alaska Range. A trough will set up over the state from Bethel to Old Crow on Tuesday and persist over that area into Thursday as a broad area of cyclonic flow around the low in Bristol Bay develops over the state and adjacent waters. Leeside troughing will develop north of the Brooks Range Tuesday over the arctic plains and persist through Thursday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Front moving over the northwest and central arctic coast will spread some snow to the mainly the coastal areas from Barrow west today then moves offshore. The first wave moving north over the interior will move to the eastern arctic coast and eastern Brooks Range this evening with snow developing east of Nuiqsut tonight and remaining mainly east of Barrow through Thursday. Snow accumulations today will be around one inch on the northwest coast, and through Wednesday morning east of Barrow up to 6 inches will be possible with the heaviest amounts in the eastern Brooks Range. The GOES MVFR Probability product at 13/0930Z indicating quite a bit of MVFR conditions over the coastal areas west of Nuiqsut and just off shore to the east. Do not expect that will change much today, but expect lowering ceilings over the eastern Brooks Range and arctic coast tonight. Temperatures a bit warmer on the northwest coast, otherwise not much change. West Coast and Western Interior...Biggest issue will be winds increasing over the Bering Strait and St Lawrence Island. Northeast winds will increase slowly through today and tonight and peak on Tuesday with gusts near 60 mph possible. Winds will remain strong through the remainder of the week over the area. Winds will also be relatively strong in Norton Sound and the Chukchi Sea. Inland areas will see northeast winds 5 to 20 mph. Typical low stratus ceilings over the coast areas as well from 500 to 2500 feet. Expect some flurries and fog with the stratus over the Bering Strait and St Lawrence Island with reduced visibility at times. No significant snow accumulation is expected. In the lower Yukon Delta snow is developing and will spread northeast as the trough sets up. Accumulations of 2 to 5 inches can be expected through Wednesday morning in the middle Yukon Valley and lower Yukon Delta. Temperatures will be warmer in the inland areas with not much change in the coastal areas. Central and Eastern Interior...Relatively cloudy the next couple days as the low sends waves north over the interior. Slight chance of some freezing sprinkles around Fairbanks with the second wave this afternoon and again on Tuesday afternoon but currently looks like flurries. Not expecting any accumulating freezing rain anywhere. There is a slightly better chance of freezing rain in the Alaska Range and along the leeside of the range south of Fairbanks, but expect the models are overdoing the precipitation and it will be chinooked out. Snow will develop mainly to the north and west of Fairbanks as a trough sets up between Bethel and Old Crow YT. Snowfall amounts of will range from less than half and inch up to 8 inches through Wednesday morning The heaviest snowfall will be in an areas between Livengood and Bettles and from Tanana to Old Crow YT. Strong winds in and around Delta Junction as the Tanana Valley jet has set up with the leeside trough and low over the Tanana Flats, and ridging to the east. Gap flow winds developing in the eastern Alaska Range Tuesday during the day with gusts to 55 mph possible south of Delta Junction. Temperatures are on the rise and will continue to warm with temperatures slightly warmer each day through midweek. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Gale Warning for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ245. && $$ SDB FEB 17  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KBYZ 131005 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 305 AM MST Mon Feb 13 2017 .SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Tue... Upper ridge seen early this morning along the BC/Pacific NW coast on water vapor imagery, will push inland today and slide gradually SE across the region through Tue. night. The ridge will bring dry and warmer weather, with windy conditions from KBIL W Tue. night. The models continued to bring some weak energy S along the MT/Dakotas border tonight, but moisture had decreased since last night's runs, so will keep the forecast dry. For temperatures, today's airmass will be similar to yesterday's, so have gone with similar high temperatures. 850 mb temperatures increase to +4 E to +8 degrees C W on Tue., so expect temperatures to be a few degrees higher than today's readings. Will leave the FLS for the ice jam on the Musselshell alone. This can be evaluated again today. Arthur .LONG TERM...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun... Extended forecast continues to looks mild and relatively dry through the week. An amplified upper ridge sits right over the forecast area on Wednesday. This ridge gets flattened and pushed east on Thursday by a fragmented shortwave trough moving in from northern California. Surface pressure gradients tighten up over the west for increasing winds over the western valleys. Wednesday night into Thursday morning should be the windiest times and based on guidance, bumped winds up from Livingston to Big Timber. May very well be advisory levels winds for this event, so will issue a HWO and supportive wind graphic. Have started PoPs a little earlier and painted low chances over the west early in the day Thursday. Spread these PoPs east Thursday afternoon and night. Energy swings north of the area Friday, so expect drying then. There will be another shot of precipitation Saturday with the next shot of energy moving up in southwest flow. Temperatures looks mild with the coldest air locked to the north. The precipitation on Thursday and Thursday night looks like a mix of rain and snow, as does Saturday. One note, the ECMWF was closing off a low over southeast Montana Sunday night, while the GFS was way farther south. Should the ECMWF verify, this could be a potentially significant storm system to impact the northern parts of southeast Montana. We will monitor that period closely. TWH && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will be over the forecast area again today. Winds will not be as strong as yesterday, but a few gusts to 20kts can be expected from KLVM to KBIL. TWH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 044 024/047 029/057 036/058 035/052 028/048 031/047 0/N 00/U 00/N 00/N 22/W 01/B 22/W LVM 048 022/051 028/053 037/054 033/050 028/048 030/047 0/N 00/U 00/N 00/N 23/J 02/W 22/W HDN 044 019/047 022/054 024/054 030/049 026/045 025/045 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 22/J 01/B 22/W MLS 042 022/045 024/052 029/055 032/051 027/046 029/044 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 12/W 01/B 12/W 4BQ 045 021/048 025/055 031/058 032/052 028/048 031/048 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 02/W 00/B 12/W BHK 040 023/043 025/052 028/055 030/051 026/046 028/046 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 02/W 10/B 12/W SHR 045 019/048 024/058 027/058 029/051 025/049 028/046 0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 22/J 00/B 22/W && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KTOP 062103 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 303 PM CST Mon Feb 6 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 301 PM CST Mon Feb 6 2017 Embedded shortwave trough was seen rotating through the central plains this afternoon, as seen on the water vapor imagery. Satellite and observation trends show the warm front centered west to southeast just south of the I 70 corridor. Dewpoints in the 50s are observed over east central areas with periods of patchy fog and drizzle through early evening. Further north of the warm front towards north central Kansas, the fog thickness has remained with dewpoint and temp depressions near 0. This has kept highs cooler in the upper 40s, while middle to upper 50s are observed elsewhere. Some uncertainty on timing of clouds clearing tonight with visible imagery showing some breaks in the clouds over south central KS currently. Latest hrrr guidance would have the drier air moving into eastern KS by 00Z tonight. As the upper trough lifts eastward overnight, residual low level moisture on the backside of the departing low may linger the low stratus and patchy fog through sunrise Tuesday. Sfc trough deepens over the western high plains Tuesday, surging a cold front southward into the CWA in the mid to late afternoon. Timing of the front and the surge of cold air behind it vary from the GFS to the NAM and SREF, leading to uncertainty in temps especially along and south of Interstate 70. Overall stuck to persistence while following the MAV and MET guidance which favors a tight gradient from the upper 60s in far east central KS, to near 50 degrees near the Nebraska border. Fire weather concerns remain minimal given the light westerly winds at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. RH values at peak mixing down to the lower 30 percentile. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday) Issued at 301 PM CST Mon Feb 6 2017 Front continues to push southward Tuesday night into Wednesday, keeping the boundary layer mixed, but still dropping lows into the 20s with highs rising into the 30s to 40s. Could see some very light snow along the northern border Tuesday night as frontogenesis brings some lift across in the overnight hours. Wednesday night bodes a little cooler with lows in the teens as the center of the high moves into the northern CWA by sunrise. It advects eastward under the NW flow aloft, with southerly surface winds returning by late Thursday, which should bring highs back into the 30s and 40s once again. Warmer lows Thursday night in the 30s. Friday and Saturday shaping up to be a pretty nice end to the week with southwest surface winds and warm advection bringing highs into the 60s for Friday. Next front moves into the far northern CWA late in the day Saturday, but highs still reach 50s and 60s before the front drops south. Air behind the front isnt all that cold however, and highs still rise into the 40s to low 50s for Sunday and Monday. Outside chance for some precipitation late Saturday into early Sunday as the front comes through. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1121 AM CST Mon Feb 6 2017 MVFR stratus this morning is transitioning to IFR to occasional LIFR ceilings aft 18Z as the incoming warm front advects warmer temperatures and sfc moisture. Patchy drizzle will be possible with the IFR stratus through 02Z at KTOP/KFOE. Incoming dry air behind the wave will clear stratus west to east this evening. Patchy mvfr fog develops after 02Z, however do not believe it to be dense with the mid level clouds sticking around through sunrise. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prieto LONG TERM...67 AVIATION...Prieto  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMFR 311714 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 914 AM PST Tue Jan 31 2017 .UPDATE... && .DISCUSSION... No major changes to the short term forecast. Overcast skies currently dominate the skies and really inhibited any fog formation last night. The air stagnation advisory will cancel later on today as we're expecting deeper mixing and windier conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. In addition, rain is entering the forecast, that was considered as well. For more information on the upcoming weather late this week, read the previous discussion appended below. && .AVIATION...31/12Z TAF Cycle...With high clouds increasing, fog will be less likely this morning and coverage could be patchy at best. There may instead be patchy fog near KMFR but not at the terminal itself. Satellite IFR Probability shows potential exists in far northern Douglas County north of the Umpqua River. Areas of IFR conditions are possible from Cape Arago southwestward out to 30 nm offshore of Gold Beach. /FB && .MARINE...Updated 830 AM PST Tuesday 31 January 2017...High pressure will remain over the waters through Tuesday with light winds and seas remaining generally below 10 feet. However, due to north wind seas and westerly swell, seas will be somewhat chaotic and steep today and into tonight. The models have not changed much with the arrival of the next surface low. Winds will still be mainly from the east to southeast with the strongest winds expected to be south and west of the waters Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. However, there is a chance that a steep south to southwest fresh swell could affect the southern outer waters by Thursday morning, courtesy of the developing surface low near 35N/145W on Wednesday. Confidence of the timing and track of the low is low to medium, so it will warrant close watching over the next few days. -Petrucelli/BPN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 340 AM PST Tue Jan 31 2017/ DISCUSSION...Model agreement between the ECMWF, GFS, and GFS ensemble members has increased through Thursday and is moderate into Friday. The changes in our weather will be relatively minor through Wednesday evening then the pattern will turn wet and active. Mid and high level clouds have increased ahead of a broad upper low centered far offshore of northern California...near 34.5N 144W. There will also be a gradual increase in southerly winds which will finally help improve mixing of the air mass in valleys this afternoon. There also remains a slight chance to chance of very light rain/snow Today through Wednesday. There will be an increase of weak lift and an increase of mainly mid level moisture that should be enough to produce mainly virga but also some very light precipitation with a snow level around 4500 to 5500 feet. The probability will be highest from the Umpqua Divide northward and from this afternoon through tonight as a front oscillates between ridging over the Great Basin, a broad trough over the northern Rockies, and the approaching trough far offshore. The pattern will more noticeably change Wednesday night as the pacific trough approaches. Southerly winds will increase late Wednesday. There is increased model agreement that precipitation will arrive from the southwest and spread into Siskiyou County beginning around 10 PM on Wednesday evening. The model trend has been a slight weakening of precipitation amounts late Wednesday night through Thursday, but still a likelihood that the event begins as snowfall in the vicinity of Mt Shasta with a snow level around 3500 to 4000 feet. There is still uncertainty in whether this will be more of an advisory level or warning level event. Around 2 to 5 inches of snow is forecast for western and southern Siskiyou County late Wednesday night through Thursday...except higher amounts of up to a foot for the higher terrain in that area. Amounts will be highest in western and southern Siskiyou County with the aid of southerly upslope flow. 18 hour snowfall amounts elsewhere are forecast in the range of 1 to 4 inches. Breezy to windy southerly winds are expected to be strongest in the southern Shasta Valley. Southerly low level flow is expected to increase Thursday night and bring higher snow levels rising to 5000 to 5500 feet while the upper level low tracks east-northeastward to near 40N 130W. Winds in the Shasta Valley, and perhaps locally on the east side as well could reach advisory strength. There are still model differences regarding the duration and timing of the heaviest precipitation, but general agreement that it will affect southern Siskiyou County between Thursday and Friday. The upper trough is forecast to move inland Friday into Friday night while another trough retrogrades from Alaska into the Gulf of Alaska. This will continue a wet onshore flow Friday night at least through the weekend...and possibly through Tuesday night. The position of this trough and the disturbances rotating through it are highly uncertain. Snow levels will begin Friday a bit higher than normal ..around 4500 to 5000 feet then likely decrease during the weekend or early next week to 3500 to 4000 feet. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ024-026-029>031. CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 5 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ370-376. $$ CZS/BPN/FJB  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KPAH 262029 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 229 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 228 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 There is still a little seeder-feeder action going on across parts of Southeast Illinois/Southwest Indiana/Northwest Kentucky this afternoon, so will leave a mention of snow flurries in this area for the remainder of today. The Evansville IN airport reported some brief snow flurries earlier today. With cloud layers at or greater than 1.5kft thick and weakening cold air advection in place, anticipate cloud cover will remain across most of the region overnight. Erosion of cloud cover from the west and southwest will occur as warm air advection builds into the area on Friday. Unfortunately, points along and east of the Mississippi River will slow to clear, if at all, as more moisture and a reinforcing shot of cold air pushes across the this area. At this point, any mention of snow flurries would be premature, given the low probability of the event. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 228 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 The signal continues to persist for sharpening of the western limb of the eastern U.S. trough Saturday into Sunday. Timing seems to wobble + or - 3 hours from Sunday afternoon as the main precipitation period. Thicknesses still suggest that eastern sections of Southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of West Kentucky will see enough sharpening lift, deeper moisture through the preferred ice nucleation zone, and residence time to support a least a dusting of snowfall. However, given the expected coverage and duration, impacts should be limited and short duration given temperatures, etc. there is above average confidence with the development and general timing of this mixed precipitation event. There is still a struggle with the Tuesday night to Wednesday time period, as medium range models have some difficulty in the placement of marginal precipitation associated with the next shortwave rotating southward from the upper midwest late Monday and early Tuesday. The ECMWF is the driest and is further north with the shortwave energy, followed by the Canadian, and the wetter GFS. This moisture has been wavering between late Tuesday through late Wednesday the last few runs, so cannot totally rule it out at this time. So, for now, will keep a mention of rain/wintry mix in place for Tuesday night. However, there is much lower forecast confidence of its occurrence at this time. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1124 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 With mixing in the sub-cloud layer and weakening cold air advection in placed across the WFO PAH TAF locations, there will still be still be a persistent overcast layer through at least the first 12-18 hours of the 18z Thursday forecast period, given estimated cloud thickness in excess of 2kft. The NAM-WRF and GFS suggested that ceilings would remain in the upper MVFR category, but indications are that most ceilings will remain in the lower VFR category for the majority of the forecast period. There may be an isolated snow flurry or sprinkle near the vicinity of the KEVV and KOWB, but the probability is too low to mention at this time. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...Smith AVIATION...Smith  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KPAH 261724 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1124 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 1124 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 Updated aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 330 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 Forecast confidence in the near term is higher than average with good model agreement in the overall synoptic pattern and a lack of significant weather impacts. Seasonably cold weather will prevail through late week with the region positioned between an upper level low over eastern Canada and an upper level high off the U.S. West Coast. Cyclonic northerly flow on the back side of the Canadian low will steer a couple minor impulses of energy across the area during the period. While a few snow flurries or sprinkles cannot be ruled out, especially this morning, no measurable precipitation is expected. The main impact through the period will be lingering low clouds, which will encompass much of the area today and tonight. While some erosion in the cloud cover from the west is expected by Friday, clouds will likely be stubborn to completely clear. Expect more clouds in the vicinity of the Wabash River Valley with a trend towards more sunshine further west near the Missouri Ozarks. Highs through Saturday should range from the mid 30s to lower 40s. Lows are forecast in the mid to upper 20s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 330 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 The 00Z models are in decent agreement in the overall pattern through the extended. We will begin and generally stay in northwest flow aloft. This will keep temperatures at or below normal through most of the period. The primary exception will be on Tuesday when the low-level flow backs to westerly allowing for a quick warm up into he lower 50s over much of the region. A cold front will move through in the afternoon and take us back to more seasonal temperatures for the rest of the week. The primary window for precipitation is late Saturday night through Sunday night. The 00Z GFS is a bit wet compared to the nearly dry ECMWF and CMC late Saturday night and through the day Sunday, but it then joins the ECMWF and CMC in producing a band of light QPF over the eastern half of the region Sunday evening. It is unrealistic to expect the models to have a good handle on these fast moving disturbances, but for now we will take advantage of this agreement and emphasize Sunday evening for any light snow accumulations. Temperatures aloft will definitely be supportive of snow, and surface temperatures will not be warm enough to melt it. A swath of a half inch or just a bit more is possible over the eastern half of the area Sunday evening. It should be noted that this is not a high confidence situation. Run to run consistency is likely to be difficult to get. While accumulations are limited to Sunday evening, there will be small PoPs over the eastern half of the area through the day Sunday. Sunday may be more of a flurry or sprinkle event. Regardless, temperatures should climb above freezing enough throughout the area to keep any snow from accumulating. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1124 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2017 With mixing in the sub-cloud layer and weakening cold air advection in placed across the WFO PAH TAF locations, there will still be still be a persistant overcast layer through at least the first 12-18 hours of the 18z Thursday forecast period, given estimated cloud thickness in excess of 2kft. The NAM-WRF and GFS suggested that ceilings would remain in the upper MVFR category, but indications are that most ceilings will remain in the lower VFR category for the majority of the forecast period. There may be an isolated snow flurry or sprinkle near the vicinity of the KEVV and KOWB, but the probability is too low to mention at this time. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...RJP LONG TERM...DRS AVIATION...Smith  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDVN 220952 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 352 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 Similar to the last several nights, light winds and sufficient low-level moisture has led to areas of dense fog across E Iowa/NW Illinois with visibilities less than 1/4 mile at times. The fog has been slowest to set in over the Quad Cities area, but even here visibilities are beginning to drop. Areas of clearing in sky cover has allowed for more radiational cooling, so fog likely not as vertically deep as the past few nights. Outside the DVN WFO, it is a shallow, but dense, ground fog. Also, it is colder early this morning with sfc temps in the upper 20s to mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) ISSUED AT 330 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 This Morning: Dense Fog Advisories in effect through 12 PM, but thinking many counties may be dropped several hours early. Sfc temps near or below freezing for many locations means the potential is there for slick roadways and sidewalks from areas of freezing fog - something to keep in mind if traveling this morning. Make sure to slow down and use extra caution. Fog across E Iowa/NW Illinois is more radiationally driven as opposed to the past few nights which were synoptically forced. This is corroborated by lower GOES liquid-cloud thickness values compared to recent early mornings. Hi-res model guidance (RAP/HRRR/NMM) and sfc obs in north-central IA suggest NW/N sections of the forecast area may be the first to see visibilities improve as steady NW winds develop. This Afternoon and Tonight: Another mild and cloudy mid to late January day on tap. Forecast highs are in the 40s most locations. There is a slight chance for light rain showers through midday in the SE CWA, which is on NW periphery of a large low over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Steady NW winds should preclude areas of dense fog overnight. Added mention of patchy fog across the north third of the CWA. All-in-all not expecting a significant impact. Uttech .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) ISSUED AT 330 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 Main focus is the system that will lift through Tuesday and Wednesday. Colder weather is on track to follow late week into the weekend, when temperatures should return closer to late January normals in the 20s and 30s. Forecast confidence is low with the details of the early week system. While the track of the surface low remains somewhat consistent, from NW MO through northern IL, there continue to be timing differences among the models that will be critical for precipitation types. Our model blended forecast approach for precipitation types for now results in an onset of possible snow in the warm advection out ahead Tuesday morning over eastern IA, mixing with rain and then changing to all rain in the afternoon as temperatures warm into the 40s. The onset could easily be late enough to eliminate the snow potential. Similarly, any rain or drizzle will likely transition to light snow following the passing surface low and advection of what looks to be sufficiently cold strong air advection. For now this transition will be advertised Tuesday night, with an advertised transition back to rain or rain/snow mix, then snow again as the system exits Wed into Wed night. The current path suggests potential snow amounts of 1 to 2 inches Tue night into early Wed, north of highway 30. Temperatures Thursday through Saturday cool considerably under an active, and cyclonic N-NW flow aloft. There may be a few rounds of flurries or very light snow in this stretch, but confidence is too low to pin down specific timing. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night) ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017 Period of clearing skies will lead to the development of dense fog and lifr/vlifr conditions overnight. Stratus is likely to move back across northeast Iowa overnight along with a light west to northwest wind in wake of a surface trough, and this should bring about some improvement in visibilities at CID and DBQ prior to 12z but conditions still likely at least ifr in cigs and vis. Dense fog could linger at MLI and BRL until mid morning or 14-15z before lower clouds and west/northwest wind develop. Anticipate fog lifting at all sites by 18z Sunday then n/nw winds around 10 kts with mainly lower mvfr cigs lingering with a chance of some pockets of ifr early afternoon. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 330 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017 ...Ice Action Continues on Many Area Rivers... Rock River: It appears that the ice that was jammed yesterday in the Joslin area has since broken up and moved downstream. Over the past 24 hours, Joslin dropped nearly 3 feet and is now in minor category flooding. Based on most recent readings, the ice from Joslin may be currently moving through Moline, where readings were fluctuating around a half foot and it has briefly touched major flood stage of 14 feet. As this moves through, will need to watch for fluctuations of a foot or more, at Moline today. Further upstream, ice action that was in the Dixon area yesterday appears to be passing the Como gage, where it spiked to moderate flooding last evening, but has since dropped below flood stage. Additional ice action issues can be expected as this ice advances downstream through Joslin and eventually Moline over the next couple days. Forecasts are thus low confidence and stages could easily go higher than forecast as ice moves through the area. Mississippi River: The large ice jam that has been restricting flow downstream of Burlington since January 7 has broken up and the stage was rapidly falling at both Gladstone and Burlington. Gladstone has dropped near 3 feet in the past 24 hours and is now below flood stage, and with no additional flooding expected the flood warning will be dropped. Burlington is on a similar trend, with a 2 foot drop and was now in minor category flooding. At the current rate, we may be able to drop the flood warning there later today. Downstream, this was resulting in rising river levels at Keokuk and Gregory Landing, where it is expected to crest just below flood stage. Cedar River: An ice jam was impacting the river along Conesville, where the stage jumped 3 feet Saturday, briefly above moderate flood stage last evening. A corresponding drop of nearly 3 feet has occurred downstream at Columbus Junction. Rapid fluctuations of several feet will be likely along this stretch until this ice makes it way downstream. Ice action continues along nearly all other eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois tributary rivers. Continued mild weather and channeled flow due to runoff from recent rain will continue the threat of ice jams through at least mid week. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for Benton-Buchanan- Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Des Moines-Dubuque-Henry IA-Iowa- Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Keokuk-Lee-Linn-Louisa- Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren-Washington. IL...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for Bureau-Carroll- Hancock-Henderson-Henry IL-Jo Daviess-McDonough-Mercer- Putnam-Rock Island-Stephenson-Warren-Whiteside. MO...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for Clark-Scotland. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Uttech SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...Sheets AVIATION...McClure HYDROLOGY...Sheets  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KGJT 201045 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 345 AM MST Fri Jan 20 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 344 AM MST Fri Jan 20 2017 KGJX Doppler Radar continues to show snow falling across the forecast area this morning as the first in a series of storm systems continues to sweep across the forecast area. Short term forecast models are showing a lingering possibility of snow showers through late morning with a greater probability focusing over the Mountains. A lull in the winter weather is anticipated this afternoon into the early evening hours. Snowfall rates will pick back up once again initially in Southeastern Utah and Southwestern Colorado this evening as the next storm system approaches from the southwest. Snow probabilities will increase and spread north and east after midnight Saturday morning as this second portion of the storm system pushes east. Abundant snowfall is expected over the mountains with this system in particular southwestern facing slopes and the San Juan Mountains. Numerous Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect through Saturday night. Please check the weather forecast before you head out today and also check road conditons on UDOT and CDOT's web pages. Overall the short term forecast confidence is high. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 344 AM MST Fri Jan 20 2017 The current satellite water vapor image is showing two strong storm systems impacting the northern hemisphere this morning. The first is currently positioned off of the British Columbia coast with a strong jet stream pushing into coastal California. The second storm system is pushing northeast through the northern plains. The 0000Z ECMWF and 0600Z GFS20 have initialized well with these synoptic scale weather features and remain in good agreement through at least next Tuesday. Both forecast models are indicating that a ridge of high pressure will briefly build over the intermountain west on Sunday, providing another break in the weather for our forecast area. However, this break will be short lived as the third and stronger storm system begins to enter Eastern Utah Sunday evening. This stronger system will have significant upper level jet support which will result in greater snowfall rates and windier conditions through Tuesday. Behind the system on Tuesday the general atmospheric flow over the forecast area will become west northwesterly. This west northwesterly flow will shift the focus from the San Juan mountains to the northern mountains and northwestern facing slopes. In addition the cold northwesterly flow will also result in much colder temperatures for the second half of the upcoming week. Overall the extended forecast confidence is high. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 344 AM MST Fri Jan 20 2017 KGJX doppler radar continues to show snow showers around the forecast area this morning, especially over the mountainous terrain. Light snow continues to be reported at a majority of the terminals as well with generally VFR cigs and IFR vis. GOES IFR satellite derived IFR probability is indicating IFR to LIFR conditions in the Grand Valley and also in the vicinity of Cortez and Durango. Reduce vis will be possible through roughly 9:00 am MST in these locations but should improve by mid morning with VFR then prevailing through this afternoon. The second wave of a multi-day storm will begin to impact the terminals Friday night persisting through Saturday. Overall forecast confidence is moderate to high. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST Saturday night for COZ003-008-014. Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Saturday for COZ021>023. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM MST Sunday for COZ009-010-012- 013. Winter Storm Warning until midnight MST Saturday night for COZ017-018. Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM MST Saturday for COZ019. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MST Sunday for COZ004. UT...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST Saturday night for UTZ025. Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Saturday for UTZ022. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Saturday for UTZ028. && $$ SHORT TERM...Larry LONG TERM...Larry AVIATION...Larry  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCAR 182337 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 637 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure south of the Gulf of Maine will track out to sea tonight. An upper level disturbance approaching from Canada will cross the area late tonight into Thursday morning. High pressure will build into the region on Friday and remain across the area into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 600 PM Update: PoPs were adjusted to reach 100 percent across the Nrn hlf of the FA durg the late ngt to erly morn hrs based on our fcst 6hrly QPFs/SNFLs late tngt, suggesting a lgt, but imminent lgt snfl event, with the PoP from QPF near term tool used for this adjustment. Otherwise, minor adjustments to fcst hrly temps/dwpts thru the ovrngt based on late aftn/erly eve obsvd temps, with no chgs to fcst ovrngt lows attm. Orgnl Disc: The low which brought some light snow Downeast will slide out to sea well south of Nova Scotia tonight. A separate upper level wave will approach from the northwest tonight bringing a period of snow late tonight into early Thursday morning. The snow will be produced as a function of divergence aloft and some surface convergence ahead of the shortwave. Starting times will be around midnight over the north and a few hours after midnight Downeast. Snow will gradually taper off early Thursday morning. Amounts will range from around 3 inches north to an inch or less Downeast. The sky will remain mostly cloudy on Thursday with highs a few degrees above normal as high pressure builds in from the west. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The models are in good agreement through the period. A high pressure ridge builds into Maine from the west as an Upper level low over eastern Quebec continues to move away from the area. A low move through northern Quebec with a trough extending south to northern Maine early Saturday morning may product a few snowshowers across the crown of Maine Saturday morning, otherwise high pressure will dominate the weather through the period. Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For QPF used GFS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The extended models are in good general agreement at the start of the long term. A high pressure ridge over the area will begin to build to the east of the area as a low over Lake Superior and a low moving north along the Atlantic coast begin to put pressure on the western edge of the ridge. By Monday morning the frontal system associated with the lows will move into southwest Maine. By early Tuesday morning the warm front moves to Downeast Maine. By Tuesday morning the models start to diverge a bit, with the ECMWF moving the low to eastern Lake Huron and a secondary low over Portland, The GFS shows the low remaining over Virginia Beach. Both models show an occluded frontal boundary over Maine. Tuesday evening the GFS shows signs of secondary development over Portland, the ECMWF moves its low east to the Bay of Fundy. Both models continue to show the occluded frontal boundary over Maine. Wednesday morning both models show the main front east of Maine with northern Maine remaining in wrap around precipitation. The GFS builds a ridge in for the remainder of the period, while the ECMWF maintains the wrap around precipitation through the end of the period. Loaded a blend to smooth out the minor differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. && .AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR conditions this evening will lower to IFR from north to south in snow late tonight. IFR conditions on Thursday will improve to MVFR around midday across the region as snow tapers off and some clouds remain. SHORT TERM: VFR conditions all all sites through the period. FVE and CAR may see a few snowshowers Saturday and again Sunday adding HUL to the chance snowshowers. These snowshowers will bring vsby and cigs down to lower MVFR, but these snowshowers should be brief and vsby and cigs will return to VFR quickly after the shower passes. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: An SCA will remain up early this evening for the offshore waters for wind gusts above 25 kt and seas over 5 ft. Winds and seas should diminish and subside overnight. SHORT TERM: High pressure will dominate the weather for the coastal waters, winds and seas below SCA criteria through through the period. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...VJN Short Term...Norton Long Term...Norton Aviation...VJN/Norton Marine...VJN/Norton  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 181646 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1046 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017 .UPDATE... It looks like the clouds are going to hang around across southern WI for the rest of the day and likely through the overnight hours. The exception is over central WI where a hole is eroding in the clouds. Elsewhere, we could see a few breaks in the clouds, but they should be short-lived. The GOES Cloud Thickness product shows a thickness of around 1000 feet. The clouds are stuck beneath an inversion, with dry air just above it. Winds will be picking up out of the southwest today, but that might just help the low clouds to keep advecting into the area rather than mixing out. The clouds will impact temps, so will lower max temps a bit. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... It is looking like the low clouds will hang around southern WI for the rest of the day and likely through the night. Ceilings should remain below 1000 feet until mid afternoon. Visibilities should continue to improve through early afternoon. The exception is near Wisconsin Dells where skies have cleared. This could translate to breaks in the clouds elsewhere across southern WI. && .MARINE... Southwest winds should have gusts to around 20 knots today, then become southerly Thu and easterly Fri. Conditions are expected to remain below small craft advisory levels through the remainder of the week. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 320 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence Is Medium. Areas of fog should linger into the morning hours, with light winds and moist low levels under the inversion. Not expecting widespread dense fog, with low stratus keeping temperatures from falling. Main issue during this period will be the low stratus deck trends and its influence on temperatures. Extensive area of low stratus exists across the region. Models are trying to shift this area to the east this morning. However, it already appears to be too quick with this trend. NAM forecast soundings keep this low stratus deck around below the shallow inversion today into tonight. The GFS soundings do show the low stratus moving out of the area this afternoon. Given the time of year, these low stratus decks usually linger longer than model guidance would suggest. Thus, will keep the cloudy skies through the morning hours, then slowly trend downward this afternoon and evening. Would not be surprised if the low stratus deck lingers into tonight. There is some warm air advection today from the west, which should bring milder temperatures into the area. If the low stratus deck lingers this afternoon, temperatures may not rise as much. For now, have highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the area. This is quite mild for this time of year. Lows tonight are forecast in the upper 20s, though these may need to be adjusted higher, if the low stratus deck lingers tonight. May see light fog later tonight, with light winds and moist low levels. THURSDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. Shortwave ridge holds court during the morning hours before being shunted east by an upper low slowly lifting out of the central Great Plains. Weak surface troughing will accompany the upper wave, with pressure falls of around 3 mb per 6 hours occuring over southern Wisconsin by afternoon. Mid to high level cloud cover will increase through the day with cloud bases lowering by evening. 925 mb temperatures around 5 to 7 degrees Celsius support mild high temperatures in the 40s. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. The upper low should devolve to an open-wave trough while lifting from the lower Missouri valley into the western Great Lakes. As the upper wave approaches Thursday night, QG forcing for ascent increases thanks to arriving differential cyclonic vorticity advection, robust jet-level energy from left exit region divergence, and some modest but focused low-level warm advection. Strong Omega, juxtaposed with precipitable water (PWAT) values of 0.7 to 0.9 suggests decent QPF with this system. In fact, the 12z NAEFS standardized anomalies place these PWATs around 2 to 3 sigma above the mean for this time of year. Expect precipitation to work in from the southwest Thursday evening, before spreading across the area overnight and diminishing Friday morning. Temperatures may be cold enough in our far north (Montello, Fond du Lac, and Sheboygan areas) for a bit of freezing rain or sleet, but this should be an all rain event for most given the forecast thermal profiles. Highs in the 30s and 40s are expected for Friday afternoon. SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY...Forecast confidence is medium. Active flow pattern aloft continues, with shortwave energy carving out a closed low over the central Great Plains on Saturday. The near vertically stacked system should lift north into the upper Mississippi valley on Sunday, bringing the chance for a few rain showers over the weekend. Temperatures will be quite mild with highs into the 40s to perhaps lower 50s. A potent low pressure system passing by to our south brings a better chance for rain on Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures will cool a bit from the weekend, but should remain above normal. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... Main issue will be how long the fog and low stratus clouds linger across the area today. Low stratus with ceilings below alternate minimums and approaching airport minimums should linger this morning, and perhaps this afternoon into tonight. Some uncertainty here with how long these low clouds will linger, but given the time of year would not be surprised if they linger into tonight. Fog with visibilities below alternate minimums at times should linger into the middle morning hours. Milwaukee may not see much in the way of fog. Increasing south to southwest winds should then mix out the fog later this morning into the afternoon. Winds should become light again tonight, with light fog possible after 06Z Thursday. MARINE... The pressure gradient will tighten somewhat this afternoon and early this evening across the area. This should allow for increasing southwest winds to develop, with gusts to around 20 knots. No Small Craft Advisory is needed at this time. It appears that winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels for the rest of the week and into the weekend. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...MRC TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Wood Thursday THROUGH Tuesday...SPM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMTR 151146 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 346 AM PST Sun Jan 15 2017 ...Wet and windy weather returns starting the middle of the week... .SYNOPSIS...Dry weather conditions and seasonable temperatures will persist across the region through Tuesday. An active weather pattern will then develop by the middle part of the week and will potentially persist into next weekend as a series of storm systems move through California. Moderate to heavy rainfall is likely at times, as well as locally strong and gusty winds. && .DISCUSSION...As of 3:30 AM PST Sunday...A weak weather system offshore is moving south parallel to the coast early this morning. Radar shows weak returns well offshore. Based on latest model data, any light precipitation is expected to remain offshore this morning and move well to our south by this afternoon. Areas of fog have developed early this morning, mainly in the East Bay near the Delta as well as the North Bay Valleys. Patchy dense fog is likely in these areas until mid morning. In addition, patchy low clouds have developed near the coast and near San Francisco Bay. Expect most low clouds and fog to clear by midday. Once the weak system offshore moves off to the south later today, a shortwave ridge is forecast to build across California. This ridge will maintain dry and mild weather across our region through Tuesday. Patchy night and morning dense fog will continue, especially in the North Bay Valleys and near the Delta. The models remain consistent in forecasting a return to an active weather pattern by midweek, with potentially three storm systems set to track across California from Wednesday through early next week. The GFS and ECMWF are in reasonably good agreement regarding the first two systems. The first system will direct a plume of moist air into the Pacific Northwest beginning late Monday. The frontal boundary and moisture plume will remain well to our north through Tuesday and then finally push south into northern California by late Tuesday night and Wednesday as a robust shortwave trough approaches from the WNW. Expect widespread rain to spread across our area from late Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. After a break in the action from late Wednesday night through Thursday evening, the second system will sweep in from the WNW and produce another round of widespread rainfall late Thursday night and Friday. Both of these systems will have a fair amount of moisture at their disposal and be dynamic enough to produce moderate to heavy rainfall. However, they are both expected to move through our area relatively quickly and so overall rainfall accumulation is not expected to be excessive. Rainfall totals by late Friday (from the first two systems combined) are expected to range from 1 to 2 inches at lower elevations and in urban areas (except locally less in some inland valleys) and from 2 to 4 inches in the coastal hills. Normally rainfall of this magnitude over three days would not result in significant hydro issues. However, given that soils remain saturated from heavy rains over the past two weeks, even short- duration intense rainfall could result in at least minor flooding issues as well as mud and rock slides in areas of steep terrain. In addition, both systems will likely produce locally strong and gusty winds near the coast and in the hills. Winds are not expected to be as strong as what occurred last week, but gusts up to 50 mph are certainly possible for a few hours in advance of frontal passage on Wednesday and again on Friday. Beyond Friday the models continue an active weather pattern but differ on the specifics. Periods of rain will likely continue through next weekend, with one more strong storm system due to impact our region sometime between Sunday night and Monday evening. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate this third system may be the wettest and windiest of the three. However, this is still a week out and consequently there is uncertainty regarding timing and potential impacts. && .AVIATION...As of 3:45 AM PST Sunday...The challenge for this morning is whether SFO and OAK will be impacted by the low clouds over the water or the dense fog reported at CCR and SUU. The regular satellite image is covered by by high clouds but the GOES-W LIFR Probability Image shows IFR and LIFR in the 30-50% range spreading into the northern part of SFO Bay. It is more likely that the low clouds from the ocean will have a greater impact on SFO and OAK than the fog as winds are very light this morning. Tomorrow morning may be more of a challange as the offshore flow will strengthen a bit which may push more of the fog into the SFO Bay Area. This is supported by the NAM which forecasts high RH right near the surface. Vicinity of KSFO....Possible IFR conditions 13Z through 17Z. Light winds. SFO Bridge Approach...Same as KSFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. && .MARINE...as of 3:45 AM PST Sunday...High pressure off the coast will keep light northwest winds through Tuesday except along the Big Sur coast where a coastal jet will maintain gusty winds south of Point Sur through tonight. A storm system will bring increasing southerly winds on Wednesday. Large swells are forecast to arrive by Thursday with very large swells by the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tday...SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: Dykema AVIATION: W Pi MARINE: W Pi Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook and twitter at: www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 092152 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1252 PM AKST Mon Jan 9 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...Good run to run continuity continues for the short term. Timing for bringing in the cold air over the northwest coast is still a little unsettled with the NAM coming in about 6 hours faster. Will lean on the current forecast database this forecast cycle, making only minor adjustments. Will transition to a blend of the models and current database for the midrange and extended periods of the forecasts. Aloft...At 500 hpa...560 dam center has moved a bit south to be over the middle Yukon Valley, and will move over the Shelikof Strait by Tuesday afternoon. The ridge then starts flattening out with ridging extending east to the Queen Charlotte Islands and northwest to the northern Kamchatka peninsula early Wednesday morning. A trough over eastern Siberia will move into the ridge and lie over the eastern Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait by Tuesday evening, and from Nuiqsut to Mcgrath by Wednesday morning, then exits the state to the east by late Wednesday. A closed 506 dam low will develop over northern Siberia Tuesday morning and move to 75N 180 by early Wednesday morning as it fills, the associated trough will move across the Chukchi Sea Wednesday, and will lie over the middle Yukon Valley late Wednesday. A Broad trough will develop over the state as a series of shortwaves spins around a 503 dam low anchored over the Beaufort Sea. The ridging will be pushed west and south by Thursday afternoon. A strong shortwave will move over the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait Thursday as a 498 dam low develops over the Central interior. The low will move southwest over the lower Yukon Delta by Sunday morning. At 850 hpa...A slight warming trend continues through tomorrow morning. Cooling trend starting Tuesday with a significant cool off Thursday as the 20 below isotherm moves south of the forecast area. A pool of 30 below celsius temperatures will move over the eastern arctic coast and plains Friday through the weekend. Surface...1030 mb high remains over most of mainland Alaska and the eastern Bering Sea. A 983 mb low near 80N 130W will move southeast with the trailing cold front impacting the eastern arctic coast this evening. A 1006 mb low over the Siberian arctic with a weak warm front extending to the southeast will move to 400 nm northwest of Point Barrow by Tuesday morning, and to 400 nm north of Point Barrow by late Tuesday with a the warm front extending southeast to MacKenzie Bay and the cold front extending southwest along the northwest arctic coast. The low will move to the Beaufort Sea by Wednesday morning with the cold front lying from Barter Island to Tanana to Marshall, then south and east of the forecast area. Ridging will build in behind the front from a 1048 mb high over Siberia and persist into next week. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...GOES MVFR Probability product indicating a lot of stratus over the area today. May see a few breaks tonight, but nothing extensive. Cloud bases up a bit Tuesday. Winds fairly steady at 10 to 20 mph next couple days from the southwest to west. conditions improving this evening on the eastern arctic coast. Cooling trend will continue through the weekend with some of the coldest temperatures of the season expected starting Sunday into next week. West Coast and Western Interior...A few clouds moving through, otherwise pretty quiet. Generally light offshore flow continues along the coast with light winds inland. Next significant precipitation will move into the area from the north Wednesday as a cold front moves southeast across the area. The cold front will bring some of the coldest temperatures of the season in for the weekend into next week. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear conditions will continue. A few patches of clouds may move through the area, but nothing significant. Winds generally light across the area. Ridge aloft remains to the west and this will bring in some slightly warmer air aloft. Expect a few clouds to move through the area, but nothing significant through Tuesday. There continues to be a chance of snow Wednesday night and Thursday across the interior. Winds will generally be light. Temperatures slightly warmer through midweek then cooling through the weekend with much colder temperatures for the weekend and next week. && Extended Forecast Days 4 to 7...Cold air starts pooling up over the arctic coast and plains late this week and will remain in place well into next week. The cold air starts filtering into the eastern and central interior Saturday. By Monday around Fairbanks expect lows to drop to 35 to 45 below with highs around 20 below, and it looks to stay that way through much of next week. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Slight potential for Freezing Spray on the north facing coasts of St lawrence Island later this week, but at this time winds do not appear to be strong enough. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ204. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245. && $$ SDB JAN 17  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 072201 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 101 PM AKST Sat Jan 7 2017 .DISCUSSION... Models...performance has been pretty good the last couple weeks, especially in the short term. For the extended periods they have been good with the major features. This cycle they are handling the blocking ridge well as the omega block sets up and the ridge aloft breaks off from the ridge over the Pacific tonight. Will go with a blend of the current model runs and the current forecast database to develop the short term forecast. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Big blocking ridge over the west coast with a 560 dam center that will drift over the lower Yukon Delta by Sunday morning as the ridge is cut off from the Pacific ridge. A 516 dam low will persist off the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest Coast. A 499 dam closed low near Kamchatka will move north and weaken to a shortwave as it moves into Siberia and then pushes over the top of the ridge Tuesday night. The ridge over the Yukon Delta will move over Kotzebue Sound late Sunday, then drifts south to the upper Kuskokwim Valley by Monday evening. The high center will be over Kodiak Island by late Tuesday at 550 dam. A major shortwave will move to the western Chukchi Sea and Chukotsk Peninsula late Tuesday and will impact the west coast starting Wednesday. At 850 hpa...A warming trend through Tuesday morning as the ridge ushers in some slightly warmer air. Cooling trend starting Tuesday with a significant cool off Thursday as the 20 below isotherm moves south and west of the forecast area. Surface...1040 mb high will persist over mainland Alaska into early next week. A decaying weather front will move north over the western Bering Sea. A 1006 mb low in the Beaufort Sea will move east across Banks Island tonight. A 987 mb low over the Siberian arctic will move east along 80N, with a front moving east across the high arctic, to near 130W then dive south into Canada. A 1005 mb low will develop over Siberia Monday and move north into the Siberian arctic Monday night, then moves to 400 nm north of Point Barrow by Tuesday afternoon with a cold front extending southwest to the northwest coast and Chukchi Sea. The low will move east and the front will lie from MacKenzie Bay to Bettles to the Seward Peninsula by Wednesday morning, then continues to push south and east through Friday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...For the short term improving conditions as the winds diminish. Expect snow to continue on and off without significant accumulation. GOES MVFR Probability product at 07/19Z shows quite a bit of MVFR conditions, so not expecting much change in the low ceilings over the area, but visibility will improve. A bit warmer Sunday, then a slow cooling trend. West Coast and Western Interior...Relatively quiet compared to the last couple weeks. Some spotty areas of rain this evening as the ridge aloft pulls some warmer air north over St Lawrence Island and possibly the lower Yukon Delta. Some snow showers over the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea tonight and Sunday but nothing significant. Winds diminishing out west as well so most areas with have winds less than 15 mph. Central and Eastern Interior...With ridge aloft to the west it will be pretty quiet. A few clouds moved through this morning, but it will be mostly clear through Monday. A slow warming trend through mid week. A chance of snow Wednesday night and Thursday, then clearing with much colder temperatures late in the week. Winds generally light. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Blizzard Warning for AKZ204. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ203. Gale Warning for PKZ225-PKZ245. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ230-PKZ240. && $$ SDB JAN 17  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KPSR 030251 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 750 PM MST Mon Jan 2 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Rather moist Pacific flow will keep periods of thicker clouds streaming into the Southwest for most of the week. There may be occasional light mountain showers on and off throughout the week, but the lower elevation communities will remain primarily dry. Somewhat cool temperatures early this week will moderate slightly by the end of the week, but not vary too far from the seasonal average. && .DISCUSSION... Copious amounts of upper level moisture emanating from the east Pacific continues to stream across the forecast area this evening. While cloud thickness may decrease somewhat, the nearly overcast high deck will persist limiting the magnitude of nocturnal cooling. In all likelihood, morning lows will not fall much more than 5F-10F from the 02Z readings (and only slightly cooler than last night). Only minimal adjustments were made to the evening update mainly to increase cloud cover and strip out any residual slight chance POPs towards the edges of the CWA boundary. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /231 PM MST Mon Jan 2 2017/ Anomalously strong (99th %) zonal component to the upper level flow will persist through Wednesday resulting in periods of partly to mostly cloudy skies. Models indicate that disorganized areas of vorticity and other forcings will generally not be sufficient to induce enough ascent to generate anything more than spotty/brief light rain or sprinkles. PoPs remain less than 10 percent for most areas. Despite the gradual increase in heights/thicknesses, temperatures will remain at or below normal through midweek. After Wednesday, subtle flat ridging builds northward advecting in a slightly drier and warmer airmass. Prolonged break from the clouds and warmer LL temps, 850 Ts 7-9C, will warm temperatures into the upper 60s and even low 70s for a few spots Thu. Late week forecast solns still remain divergent in their solns, although not as severely different in thermal and moisture profiles as last evening. ECMWF remains one of the cooler solns, but not as pronounced in the arrival of an upper low into the area by Fri-Sat. Upper shortwave may pass through the Four Corners/central Rockies late week and bring some subtle cooling to the airmass. Still maintained a slight blend towards climo PoPs and temps for the upcoming weekend given the challenge the models will have in resolving the blocked atmosphere and strong high pressure ridge over the northeast Pacific/Alaska. All in all, unsettled flow aloft will still be in the vicinity of the region enough that non-zero pops were warranted. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: Very little to no major aviation impacts through Tuesday afternoon. Occasionally thick high cigs AOA 12K ft will spread through central Arizona, while only a few afternoon cumulus hover over surrounding mountains. A very light east wind will prevail for the majority of the time, though a very late afternoon shift to a light west wind (or variable in nature) is possible Tuesday. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No major aviation concerns through Tuesday afternoon with occasionally thick high clouds spreading over terminal sites. Sfc winds will favor a S/SW direction though extended periods of nearly calm or variable directions are likely. Aviation discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Wednesday through Sunday: For the most part, we can expect a relatively humid period with low chances for rainfall over the 5 day period. A very flat upper ridge will dominate the weather pattern allowing considerable and variable amounts of mid and high clouds to overspread the area day to day. There will be slight chances of showers at times, primarily focused over the higher terrain areas to the east of Phoenix on Thursday, then across the western deserts over the weekend. Humidity values will stay highly elevated through the period, with minimum RH values mostly between 30 and 45 percent each day. High temperatures will stay near or slightly above seasonal normals each day. No consequential winds are expected each day with speeds mostly below 12kt. Overall, there are no fire weather concerns of any kind over the 5 day period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Skywarn Radio Net activation is not expected this week. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...and at weather.gov/phoenix DISCUSSION...MO/Hirsch/Nolte AVIATION...MO FIRE WEATHER...CB  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KTWC 281653 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 953 AM MST Wed Dec 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Expect dry weather and mild temperatures again today with the potential for showers and mountain snow showers starting late Thursday and continuing through the New Year's Day holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION...A fairly thick veil of high clouds stretches across much of SE AZ and stretches upwind into the Pacific. The clouds are not as thick in Cochise Co. as per satellite imagery, but made appropriate changes to sky cover today and tonight. Also lowered high temperatures a few degrees due to cloud thickness. First look at 12z models shows NAM still most emphatic developing rain Thursday, mainly east of Tucson. This is in fair agreement with 00z ECMWF. 12z GFS backed off on all precip in AZ and NM through Thursday night. Based on how much better the NAM performed with the initial moisture push with the system during the middle of last week, will hold firm with precip chances Thursday and may even raise chances east of Tucson. Will discuss the rest of the forecast period later after more data becomes available. && .AVIATION...Valid through 29/18Z. BKN to occasionally OVC clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the forecast period, except less sky cover vcnty KDUG today. SFC wind will generally remain less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected through tonight with above normal temperatures persisting through Friday. Unsettled weather returns late this week into this weekend with a chance of rain and snow showers Thursday through Sunday. Some gusty 20-ft winds may occur this weekend, with speeds mainly less than 15 mph otherwise. && .PREV DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery continues to show a large ridge centered over the southwest Gulf of Mexico, with weak ridging to zonal flow across most of the southern tier of the nation. Meanwhile, the closed low continues to spin well offshore, west of the Baja Spur. Ahead of this low, plenty of mid and high level moisture can be seen streaming northward across much of the eastern Pacific waters, the Baja peninsula, northwest Mexico and into portions of the Desert Southwest. IR imagery shows this swath of extensive cloudiness spreading north and east and generally covering the southern third of Arizona. These clouds are mostly high cirrus clouds, so will see a mix of sun and clouds from time to time today as cirrus at times will be thick enough to obscure the sun, but mostly sunny to partly cloudy to the north and partly to mostly cloudy to the south. Models continue to indicate that the eastern Pacific upper low will continue to retrograde through early Thursday before beginning to move northeast toward the southern California coast by early Friday. Models eventually show the low evolving into just an open wave as it moves across southern California, Arizona and into New Mexico late Friday through late Saturday. Meanwhile, a secondary system right on the heels of the first one, dives southeast from California and sweeps through the Desert Southwest late Saturday through Sunday. The GFS solution has the system farther north than the ECMWF, which has it move over northern Sonora. As a result of this difference in timing and position, the GFS is keeping the bulk of the associated moisture to our north, while the ECMWF has it generally over much of the state. At this time yesterday I thought the models were finally converging on a similar outcome for the later part of the week and into the weekend. However, when I was looking at the 27/00Z MOS PoP numbers from the GFS it was advertising PoPs for Tucson in the 50 to 60% range for Saturday night into Sunday. The 27/12Z run trimmed those values down to the 10 to 30 percent range and the latest 28/00Z run has only single digit PoPs for Tucson through the next seven days. On the other hand the ECMWF has maintained a wet scenario, with PoPs still in the likely to categorical range from Friday night through Sunday. Given this disagreement between the models, as well as a lack of run-to-run consistency, at least from the GFS, I will just 'stand pat' with the PoP forecast that I inherited, which looks eerily similar to what I used yesterday at this time. The bottom line is that this means with very low confidence in this situation will show slight chances creeping in from the southeast late Thursday and then spreading farther west toward the Tucson area by the overnight and early morning hours Thursday into Friday, with just slight chances for central zones and chance category toward New Mexico and including the mountain tops. I still show scattered type PoPs across the board for Saturday into Sunday. With models all showing some flavor of trough and thus disturbed weather during this period, think having at least slight chance to chance PoPs in the forecast is the way to go. Subsequent shifts can fine tune the forecast as the system gets closer in both space and time. For Tucson, high temperatures will range from 8 to 10 degs above normal today through Friday, then near normal Saturday. Highs 4 to 6 degs below normal Sunday, then near normal for early next week. Low temps will range from 9 to 12 degs above normal Thursday through Saturday mornings, then about 3 to 5 degs above normal Sunday and only slightly above normal for early next week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DROZD Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KTBW 280410 AAA AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1110 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2016 .UPDATE... Warm moist air overriding the cooler Gulf waters is supporting areas of dense sea fog over adjacent Gulf waters from Tarpon Springs north to the Suwannee River out 60nm. Based on surface observations and trends from GOES IFR probability have issued a marine dense fog advisory for the near and offshore waters mentioned above through 11 AM EST this morning. && .Prev Discussion... /issued 815 PM EST Tue Dec 27 2016/ EVENING UPDATE... Recent surface obs and RAP analyses depict an elongated area of surface high pressure draped from west to east across the peninsula. This feature will allow winds to become light and variable to calm overnight tonight into early Wednesday, promoting perhaps a better chance of fog than we have seen lately. As overnight temperatures fall to the dewpoint, expect fog will develop first along the Nature Coast and inland portions of northern and central Florida. Fog may then build southward toward morning. Fog will likely be dense in spots, especially north of I-4 closer to the center of the surface ridge and in areas where winds are weaker. This will certainly have an impact on travel overnight, but especially Wednesday morning. Be very cautious if you encounter any fog. Aside from the potential for reduced visibilities due to fog, the weather pattern remains generally quiet. Overnight lows will be quite mild at around 10 degrees above normal in the low to mid 60s. The existing forecast was in good shape. Only minor modifications were made to expand mention of fog and tweak PoPs. AVIATION (00z TAFs)... VFR conditions will persist through around 06z to 07z. Thereafter, as winds become light to calm, areas of fog will develop. Fog may be locally dense, especially along and north of I-4 near the center of the surface ridge. Will maintain MVFR vsbys most terminals, and introduce IFR vsbys at KPGD/KLAL. Fog should lift by 14z most areas with VFR conditions thereafter. MARINE... Patchy sea fog may be an issue for waters north of Tampa Bay overnight tonight into Wednesday afternoon. However, dense sea fog is not expected at this time. Surface high pressure will linger over the waters for the next couple of days, light winds to turn onshore with the seabreeze each afternoon. A strong cold front will move over the waters late Thursday into Friday, bringing a period of dangerous marine conditions. Winds of 20 to 25 knots and seas building to over 10 feet will result in dangerous boating conditions for several hours from late Thursday through the day on Friday. Conditions will improve by Saturday as high pressure quickly moves over the region, resulting in a return to southeasterly winds Sunday into the first half of next week. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 66 80 64 76 / 0 0 0 20 FMY 66 84 65 80 / 10 10 10 0 GIF 64 82 62 79 / 10 10 10 10 SRQ 64 81 62 75 / 10 0 0 10 BKV 60 81 57 77 / 0 0 10 20 SPG 66 80 64 76 / 10 0 0 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST Wednesday for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM. && $$ UPDATE...57/McMichael EVENING UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...84/Austin  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KAKQ 250853 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 353 AM EST Sun Dec 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front over northern North Carolina will continue to move south today. High pressure will wedge into the Middle Atlantic today into Monday. A cold front will pass across the region on Tuesday, brining a chance for rain showers. High pressure builds across the region again for Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Happy Holidays from NWS Wakefield! Latest surface analysis suggests rising surface pressures across the region in response to the ridge axis extending into the Middle Atlantic from the anticyclone over the Great Lakes. This is allowing drier low level air to move southward and into the northern part of the forecast area allowing some of the dense fog to disipate north of RIC. However...low level moisture is now pooled along the VA/NC border just north of the frontal boundary. This seems to be where the worse visiblities are occurring. As such...have just issued a dense fog advisory for south central VA and NE NC, along with the current advisory for the rest of the forecast area. May be able to drop parts of the advisory north of I-64 before 12z especially given the latest trends in observations and improvement noted in the GOES IFR Probability from University of Wisconsin. For now, will keep all headlines as is, however I will have to extend the eastern shore advisory until 12z given the low vsbys at SBY and MFV and WAL. Otherwise...today should be a fairly tranquil day. Clouds should gradually clear out along the coast and to the I-95 corridor today. However, given the NE flow, mostly cloudy skies will persist along the piedmont all day. This will keep temps in the upper 40s along the piedmont to mid 50s elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... he forecast thinking through mid week remains unchanged. Sfc high pressure will persist across the area through Monday. Warm advection develops aloft in response to the deep trough over the northern MS Valley ejects into the Great Lakes. The models suggest some broad/weak isentropic lift late Monday into Monday night with the NAM even suggesting some light QPF in this broad accent. At this time given the dry low level airmass from the surface high do not expect any precip to occur. However...there will likely be an increase in clouds ahead of front. A weakening cold front will pass through the area on Tuesday bringing a chance for showers. However...given that the best upper energy will be sheared out well north of the area do not expect any significant rain from this system. Will maintain chance pops across the area on Tuesday but the models are in fair agreement that any shower activity will be falling apart as it moves through on Tuesday. Big change for Tuesday will be the mild temperatures ahead of the front with most places well into the 60s. Would not be totally shocked if NE NC sees temps close to 70. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Long term period starts out dry Tuesday night/Wednesday as cold front pushes south of area, and weak high pressure builds into the region. Models diverge with regard to the amount of moisture/precipitation in advance of strong cold front moving into and across the region Thu/Thu night. GFS much drier, maintaining strong contribution from northern stream jet. ECMWF consistently wetter, allowing Gulf of Mexico to open up in advance of southern stream shortwave embedded in mean westerly flow. Superblend represents a middle of the road solution, with 30-40 percent POPS. Have gone with that compromise, which maintains consistency with yesterday's extended. Behind this front, strong cold advection ensues, with temperatures falling below normal in the Thu night through Friday night time frame. Temperatures moderate day 7 (Saturday), as high pressure moves offshore in advance of next system. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Widespread LIFR conditions with vsbys at or below 1/4SM can be expected through much of the night at all of the sites except ECG where conditions will still be IFR. Conditions will likely improve at SBY first aft 09z then followed by ORF and PHF as drier air from the north moves southward. VFR conditions expected at all sites by 15z. OUTLOOK...Fog or stratus redevelops especially southern portions of the area. An onshore flow will increase low level moisture and result in low clouds during the day Monday with either MVFR or IFR ceilings...especially for RIC and ECG. The inversion should lift during Monday night or Tuesday as westerly flow develops and improves conditions. A cold front passes through during the day Tuesday with a chance for showers. High pressure then builds over the area Wednesday. Another cold front brings a chance for more showers on Thursday. && .MARINE... Marine dense fog advisories remain in effect for Rivers, Sound, Srn Ches Bay, and coastal waters from Cape Charles Light to Currituck Light through 700 AM this morning. Advisories may need to be extended through mid to late morning given little to no improvement to visibilities seen in widespread land observations of one quarter to one half mile ...particularly near the water. Will reassess closer to 700 AM. For the rest of today, sfc high pressure builds over Ontario/Quebec (extending down over the Mid Atlantic Region) and will push a stalled boundary farther south. Expect fog to lift/dissipate by mid to late morning. Winds n-nne aob 15kt with a few gusts to around 20kt possible over the coastal waters this aftn. Seas 2-3ft; waves 1-2ft. Main high pressure slides off the New England coast on Mon and the ridge breaks down over the waters throughout the aftn. East winds aob 10kt early will become more se by the aftn. Weak wedging remains in the lee of the mts as a very strong low pressure system tracks into the Upper Great Lakes Mon and across Ontario/Quebec Mon night. The pressure gradient tightens up late Mon night into Tue aftn ahead of the front and s-sw winds will increase to 15-20kt all coastal waters and Bay (possibly Sound and Lower James River). Seas generally build to 3-4ft in this timeframe (up to 5ft possible coastal waters north of Parramore Island). Waves generally 2-3ft. SCA flags will likely be needed for the aforementioned areas from late Mon night into late Tue morning (around 12 hours), however this would be a late 4th period start time and have decided to wait to issue SCA flags until either the aftn forecast package or later tonight. The cold front is expected to cross the waters Tue evening... followed by high pressure briefly returning to the area late Tue night into Wed. Winds become w and diminish briefly Tue evening... then become nw-n late Tue night with a brief surge expected into early Wed morning. Speeds average 10-15kt except the coastal waters which should average 15-20kt. SCA flags are not anticipated with this particular surge mainly due to little change in the overall airmass and a quick relaxing of the pressure gradient. Winds continue to diminish during Wed as high pressure slides overhead. Seas 3-4ft Tue evening...subsiding to 2-3ft Wed. Waves 1-2ft. A stronger cold front is expected to cross the waters on Thu...followed by another shot of colder Canadian air. South winds 10-15kt to start the day will become west by Thu aftn (directly behind the frontal passage) and increase to 15-20kt all waters except Rivers (Lower James River not included) Thu evening. Gusts of 25-30kt Bay/Sound/Ocean. These condition will persist into late Fri night until high pressure can build into the Mid Atlantic Region. Seas build to 4-7ft Fri morning. Waves build to 3-4ft Thu evening and persist into Fri night. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MDZ021>024. NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102. VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for VAZ048- 060>062-064-067>069-075>078-080>086-088>090-092-093- 095>100-509>525. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for VAZ065-066- 079-087. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ632>638- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MRD NEAR TERM...MRD SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM...WRS AVIATION...MRD/LSA MARINE...BMD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 241623 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1023 AM CST Sat Dec 24 2016 .UPDATE... The main concern for today is sky cover. Clouds look like they'll hang around through the day across inland southern WI. However, we should see some thinning/breaks in the clouds during the afternoon. There are hints on visible satellite for broken clouds later today. The CIMSS GOES Cloud Thickness product showed cloud thickness around 1200 feet at 13Z this morning. That is substantial enough to keep clouds around. A hole in the clouds developed over the Door County Peninsula this morning. Most of the inland clearing is advecting east, but the clearing over the lake could very likely make progress down the lake with the extra mixing. Milwaukee and lakeshore areas could see sunshine for a few hours this afternoon, we will have to wait and see. Not expecting much impact on temps though. && .AVIATION/18Z TAFS/... Ceilings will be in the 1-3 kft range for the afternoon and evening. There is a chance for clearing near the Lake Michigan shoreline including MKE for this afternoon. The cigs will fall once again tonight and range from 600 feet to 1900 feet. Slight chance of freezing drizzle and drizzle are forecast after 2 am toward central WI. Areas of MVFR visibilities may redevelop tonight. && .MARINE... A Gale Watch remains in effect from Sunday evening into Monday evening. Brisk southeasterly winds will develop Sunday evening and veer southwesterly by Sunrise on Monday, with windy conditions persisting into Monday evening. Gale force gusts are most likely from Sunday evening into early Sunday night. Waves will respond to the brisk winds Sunday afternoon and evening, and peak around 8 to 10 feet towards the open waters Sunday night. Mariners should exercise caution, and keep up with the forecast. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 421 AM CST Sat Dec 24 2016/ SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast confidence medium. Subsidence will be decreasing in the wake of the upper trough through the morning with no sign of stratus dissipation. A weak high pressure area will prevail late this morning into this evening. Will hang onto stratus today and tonight with high temps several degrees warmer than the lows later this morning. Ely winds will develop late tonight as strong cyclogenesis will be underway over the high plains of CO. Kept slight chances of freezing drizzle or drizzle only toward central WI where a confluent and convergent low level flow is depicted on the models late tonight. The ely flow will warm temps above freezing over ern Sheboygan County so pcpn type would be drizzle. Overall any freezing drizzle or drizzle would be patchy. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...Forecast confidence is High. Surface low pressure and upper closed low will move across the plains and northern Minnesota. Strong warm air advection occurs on Sunday and rain is likely during the day. Surface temperatures will be right around freezing Sunday morning so there is a small chance for light freezing drizzle, but precip probably won't start until later in the morning when temperatures are warmer. Temperatures will increase overnight ahead of a cold front. The front will move through overnight with another round of precip. A dry slot moves into the region on Monday bringing a quick end to the precip. A 70 kt low level jet slides across the region Sunday night. Winds will be brisk on Sunday and even stronger on Monday. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Forecast confidence is Medium. High pressure moves south of the region on Tuesday bringing quiet weather. Models are in agreement showing a trough moving through Wednesday and Thursday. This is the next chance for precip. They vary in strength and there are large differences in temperatures among the models. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Cigs will be variable from 400 feet to 1900 feet this morning transitioning to mainly 1-3 kft for the afternoon and evening. The cigs will fall once again tonight and range from 600 feet to 1900 feet. Slight chance of freezing drizzle and drizzle are forecast after 2 am toward central WI. Areas of mvfr vsbys will continue this morning, dissipating for the afternoon and then possibly redeveloping for tonight. MARINE...A Gale Watch is in effect for Sun evening through Mon evening. Strong low pressure will track from the nrn Great Plains into Ontario Canada during this time. Brisk sely winds will develop Sun evening and veer swly by sunrise on Mon, with windy conditions continuing through Mon evening. Gale force wind gusts are possible during this time but most likely Sun evening when onshore winds are expected. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...GALE WATCH from Sunday evening through Monday evening for LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...MRC TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Gehring Sunday THROUGH Friday...Marquardt  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KMEG 232358 AAA AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Memphis TN 558 PM CST Fri Dec 23 2016 .UPDATE... Updated for 00Z Aviation Forecast Discussion below. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 313 PM CST Fri Dec 23 2016/ DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this afternoon places a warm front from western Oklahoma back through northeast Texas. Meanwhile, across the Mid-South a mid-level subtropical jet is bringing Pacific moisture into the Lower Mississippi Valley and a low level jet streak and southerly winds on the back side of high pressure advecting moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico. This has resulted in mostly cloudy to cloudy skies across the forecast area. As of 2 pm CST, temperatures across the area are predominantly in the 50s across most locations. A warm front and a trailing cold front is expected to move across the Lower Mississippi Valley later tonight into Saturday morning. This front is expected to gradually weaken and become nearly quasi-stationary on Saturday across the area as it becomes nearly parallel to upper level flow aloft. Several disturbances will move along this boundary, allowing for the potential of moderate to heavy rainfall as precipitable water values average between 1.6 to 2 inches. Overall instability appears to be mostly elevated during this period and kept any mention minimal at this time. This boundary is expected to begin moving north of the area Christmas Eve night into Christmas Day. This will result in very mild high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower/middle 70s on Christmas Day with rain chances rather minimal. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms will arrive across the area later Sunday night into Monday as another cold front moves through the region. Models show surface based instability with this second front being slightly better than at the start of the holiday weekend. Long term models suggest another weakening front will come through the region for mid to late next week bringing additional rain chances to the region. Temperatures in the long term are expected to remain slightly above normal through much of the period. CJC && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs Moist maritime air will flow into the Midsouth this evening, with a surface warm front forming along an MEM-MKL line during the overnight. IFR cannot be ruled out at MEM as early as 04Z, but the best IFR probability will occur by 07Z-08Z. TS chances nonzero at MEM after 06Z, but given limited elevated instability on RAP and NAM Bufr soundings, have left out TS mention for now. If TS does form, likely to be isolated. IFR chances should be increasing by such time. Little improvement expected at MEM and MKL on Saturday, with rich low level moisture and the front stationary and in close proximity through the afternoon. RUC and NAM Bufr soundings suggest LIFR possible well into the day Saturday at MEM, while JBR may deeper into the cool side of the boundary to see daytime MVFR. TUP should see some daytime improvement with warm sector mixing. PWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMFR 221652 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 852 AM PST Thu Dec 22 2016 .UPDATE...Made a few updates this morning to account for sky cover changes, but otherwise no updates were necessary. The current freezing fog advisory for the Medford area will expire with the morning update package, which seems prudent given the thin fog depth at this time. Some areas of fog may continue through the morning, with slick spots likely on some area roads, but the main threat has dissipated. For more forecast information, see the previous discussion below. -BPN && .AVIATION...22/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR conditions will prevail through this afternoon...except for patchy west side valley IFR/LIFR through mid-morning. Ceilings will lower ahead of a cold front with MVFR and precipitation developing at the coast this evening then spreading inland overnight. -DW && .MARINE...Updated 8:45 AM PST Thursday 22 December 2016...The forecast remains mostly on track. Have not updated the previous forecast, but wanted to note that there is a channel of slightly stronger winds near buoy 27 which is meandering back and forth creating brief periods of 15 kt winds. This is expected to dissipate shortly while west-northwest swell remaining high and steep through Saturday night. A cold front will approach today then bring stronger southerly winds tonight with a brief period of gale force gusts possible near Cape Blanco into early Friday morning. Winds veer to northerly behind the front with gusty winds Friday into Friday evening that will be strongest in the outer waters south of Cape Blanco. High pressure will return for the weekend with improving conditions Sunday into Monday. Another front is likely to approach Monday night or Tuesday with a building long period west swell, advisory strength winds likely, and a return of high and steep seas. -Schaaf/DW && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 302 AM PST Thu Dec 22 2016/ SHORT TERM...We fogged in over the Rogue Valley this morning, and with temperatures in the mid 20s, it's the freezing variety. We haven't seen a lot of ice deposition, but certainly elevated surfaces are getting frost, so in addition to the reduced visibilities, there may be some locally slippery conditions on roads and walkways this morning. A freezing fog advisory (PDXNPWMFR) is in effect until 9 AM. Elsewhere, it's mostly clear except for a little stratus evident on satellite in the Umpqua basin and in the Scott Valley. Can't rule out some sudden onset fog around sunrise (the so-called "sunrise surprise") in almost any valley, but it isn't evident right now. High clouds are already arriving at the coast in advance of a frontal system which will bring widespread rain and mountain snow tonight and Friday. The models haven't changed much from what previous shifts were looking at, so neither has the forecast. This looks like a pretty good soaker for the coast with storm total rainfall ranging from around an inch over the Coos Coast to around an inch and a half at the Curry Coast and adjacent mountains. Inland valleys look on track to get around a half inch of rain. Snow will pile up in the mountains above 3500-4000 feet with a solid foot of snow in the Cascades and Siskiyous and lesser amounts on the east side. This will bring some travel difficulties over all area passes and much of the east side and northern California. Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories remain in effect for these areas. See PDXWSWMFR for details. In addition to the rain and snow with the front, breezy to windy conditions are expected over the Shasta Valley and east side as the front pushes inland Friday morning. Winds aloft are not particularly strong, so high wind warning type winds don't look probable, but we may need some wind advisories if current trends continue. Snow levels crash behind the cold front Friday night and will probably be down as low as 1000 feet by Saturday morning. Much of the precipitation will be over, but there will still be showers around, any of which could bring some minor snow accumulations to the lower valleys. At this point, we don't think this will impact holiday travel in the lower elevations, but there may be some isolated slick spots to watch out for. Things will dry out later Saturday, but temperatures will be chilly. -Wright LONG TERM...Christmas Day through Wednesday...The extended portion of the forecast has trended drier under deep northwest flow. Temperatures will generally be near to below normal through Tuesday. Freezing fog is certainly possible Sunday and Monday mornings in most West Side valleys. The air mass dries significantly on Monday, so freezing fog potential decreases some that day. A cold front reaches the forecast area from the northwest on Tuesday and spreads mountain snow and valley rain mainly across areas from the Cascades westward. Precipitation amounts with this system should be generally light to moderate. Several GEFS members suggest little to no precipitation over the forecast area, keeping it only over the coast near Reedsport. Therefore, precipitation chances are generally around 50 percent or less, highest in the Cascades, Roseburg, and North Bend. Snow levels with this system are expected to be around 4000 feet. Operational models are in good agreement on upper ridging and dry conditions late next week, mainly Wednesday and Thursday. This could signal a period of valley fog/freezing and sunny conditions in the mountains, but it's too early to pin this down. -NSK && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM PST Friday for ORZ029>031. Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Friday for ORZ027-028. Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for ORZ026. CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM PST Friday for CAZ084-085. Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Friday ABOVE 3000 FEET for for CAZ080-081. Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ082. Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ083. Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 4 AM PST Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376. $$ BPN/BMS/TRW/DW/NSK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 181928 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 228 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonably cold and dry weather will prevail through Tuesday before temperatures moderate into the second half of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Post-frontal westerly flow pattern is now in control with sct light snow showers and flurries over the Laurel Highlands and NW Alleghenies. Gusty WNW winds continue to direct colder air into the region with HRRR showing temps AOB 32F everywhere by 19/00z. Ocnl snow showers will continue into early tonight over the higher terrain with some spots picking up a coating to 0.5 inch. HIRES models show any lingering bands pivoting more into SW NY after midnight. Chilly overnight lows from the single digits in the northwest to around 20F in the Lower Susq. 1-2 inches of rain overnight combined with snowmelt resulted in minor flooding across the Laurel Highlands. Recent calls to county EMA/911 suggest only nuisance flooding remains and small stream hydrographs are rolling over - so will allow FLS to expire at 315pm. The Youghiogheny River at Confluence is above action stage but forecast to crest ~ 9ft (3ft below FS) around 7pm tonight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A modifying arctic high will move over the area on Monday and bring fair but cold weather. Highs will struggle to reach 20F over the NW and may not get above freezing in the Lower Susq. Valley. These seasonably cold readings will average 10 to 15 degrees below daily climate normals for mid December. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Modified arctic airmass will keep the area mainly dry through Wednesday. After a cold start to the week, temperatures are forecast to moderate back to normal levels by midweek. Models show low pressure tracking from the Upper OH Valley across the eastern Great Lakes Wed night-Thursday with secondary development possible somewhere along the coast from NJ to along the New England coast Thursday night into Friday. Consensus low track and mean 850mb temps climbing above 0C in most of the area would favor a mixed pcpn event (especially at night) but its too early to be detailed. It will turn briefly colder on the backside of the system, but Canada has been pretty much depleted of the deep intense cold so this will not be the bone chilling stuff we recently experienced. Temperatures will quickly moderate by Christmas weekend as the high settles toward the Mid Atlantic coast. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Post-frontal westerly flow has returned VFR conditions to the eastern 1/2 of the airspace. MVFR/IFR will continue to plague BFD/JST with some MVFR cigs possible at AOO/UNV. Expect gusty winds 20-30kts to subside by tonight. MVFR cigs should continue over the western 1/3 of the airspace tonight with low VFR conditions central and east into Monday. Outlook... Mon-Wed...No sig wx. Thu...Restrictions likely with wintry mix to rain possible. Fri...No sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...La Corte AVIATION...Steinbugl  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 181638 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1138 AM EST Sun Dec 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Light rain and wintry mix will end by early afternoon. Temperatures will continue to drop through the evening. Seasonably cold and dry weather will prevail through Tuesday before temperatures moderate during the second half of the week. The next weather system to impact the area should arrive on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A gusty NW wind continues to drive sharply colder air into the region with 10 to 30 degree temperature drops observed across the Laurel Highlands and Alleghenies between ~ 7am and 11am. Winter weather advy for brief wintry mix/ice followed by re/flash freeze expires at noon along with SPS issued for adjacent zones. Not sure if we will extend or replace advy with SPS. We may need to expand SPS for icy conditions developing into the southeast although HRRR not as aggressive with temp drop over this area. 1-2 inches of rain overnight combined with snowmelt resulted in flooding across the Laurel Highlands. Many small streams and creeks are rising and some have come out of their banks. FLS for this area continues until 315pm. We will check with the counties for possible extension. Expect light rain in the southeast and narrow stripe of mixed pcpn on the backedge to end by early-mid this afternoon. Seasonably cold and dry weather will prevail from tonight into Monday as modified arctic high pressure shifts east through the OH Valley into the Northeast. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... A potent 1045mb high pressure area will push out of the Midwest will bring fair but cold weather Monday. Highs will struggle to reach 20 over the NW ranging to just around freezing in the SE. This will be around 15 deg colder than normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Modified arctic airmass will keep the area mainly dry through Wednesday. After a cold start to the week, temperatures are forecast to moderate back to normal levels by midweek. Models show low pressure tracking from the Upper OH Valley across the eastern Great Lakes Wed night-Thursday with secondary development possible somewhere along the coast from NJ to along the New England coast Thursday night into Friday. Consensus low track and mean 850mb temps climbing above 0C in most of the area would favor a mixed pcpn event (especially at night) but its too early to be detailed. It will turn briefly colder on the backside of the system, but Canada has been pretty much depleted of the deep intense cold so this will not be the bone chilling stuff we recently experienced. Temperatures will quickly moderate by Christmas weekend as the high settles toward the Mid Atlantic coast. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Widespread MVFR with local IFR should marginally improve this afternoon especially east of the Alleghenies as rain ends over the southeast and prevailing flow shifts to the west. Expect gusty winds 20-30kts to subside by tonight. MVFR cigs should continue over the western 1/3 of the airspace tonight with low VFR conditions central and east into Monday. Outlook... Mon-Wed...No sig wx expected. Thu...Restrictions likely with wintry mix to rain possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST today for PAZ004>006- 010-011-017-024-033. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...La Corte LONG TERM...La Corte AVIATION...Steinbugl  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KGYX 162109 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 409 PM EST Fri Dec 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure arrives late tonight and tomorrow. With exceptionally cold air already in place, expect the bulk of the precipitation to fall in the form of snow. Several inches of accumulation are possible before the snow finally changes over to rain or freezing rain late Saturday. Temperatures will continue to rise through the overnight on Saturday night and into Sunday morning. Expect all locations on Sunday to see only rain as temperatures warm to near 50 degrees near the coast and into the upper 30s over the mountains. High pressure builds in for early next week with dry weather expected through at least Wednesday.. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Snow starting after midnight and toward daybreak is pretty much a given for tonight, so, the biggest question will be how much, if any, rad cooling we get this evening. Any rad cooling will be during the first part of the evening as winds die off briefly, and only thin cirrus moves through. Forecast is for temps to cool a few degrees, especially in the eastern zones, but if some sheltered areas, even near the coast decouple early, they could drop down near zero or below, and stay down there for a few hours. Otherwise look for the cirrus to move in this evening with the snow arriving 07-09Z in the CT vly. but closer to 12Z across ME. An inch or so of accums can be expected by morning in southern and western NH. Temps will begin to creep up after midnight, so lows will be this evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Forecast thinking has not really changed all that much for this system although the models are now indication two non-phasing systems moving through ahead of the large scale upper level trough. First one will be fast moving low pressure passing pretty much right over the CWA, which should produce a decent burst of mid-lvl WAA which will fall as mostly snow during the day Sat. Accums look to fall in the 3-5" range with some localized 6" amounts especially in the foothills and S-SE upslope areas of the mountains. Temps will gradually rise during the day, but will likely stay below freezing everywhere but the immediate coastline, and probably only in the mid-coast. This will mean some sleet and freezing rain moving into srn NH and coastal ME late in the day. Since the models now showing two systems, will see a little but of N flow behind the first low, and this will reinforce the cold air in many areas Sat evening. Precip will be light and intermittent overnight, and may see some FZDZ, so ice accums will be less than tenth of an inch most places. As the first low moves out, and more significant low with trailing cold front approaches from the west, SW flow will pick up, and this should help speed up the warming at the surface after midnight, which raise temps to above freezing in all but the northeastern zones by daybreak. Srn and coastal MAine could see temps nearing 40 by Sunday morning. The chance for showers will begin to increase in the western zones late as cold front nears. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Sunday morning starts with strong southerly flow advecting warm air into the region. Low pressure will be centered over southern Quebec with a cold front extending south through New York state and Pennsylvania. Surface temperatures starting in the upper 30s to around 40 will continue to warm to near 50 degrees at the coast, and into the upper 30s to around 40 even as far inland as the mountains. Cold front will drag fairly widespread rain showers across the region by Sunday afternoon before exiting the coast by Sunday night. Cold air advection and a fairly strong pressure gradient will generate gusty winds Sunday night. By Monday morning though, the cold air will have bottomed out and high pressure will have moved over northern New England. Even though temperatures on Sunday will be well above normal, by Monday morning they will have dropped back into the lower teens along the coast to the negative single digits in the mountains. High pressure will dominate the weather through Wednesday, although weak systems will continue to move across southern Canada throughout the period. If the pattern were to shift a little bit more to the south, then we could see an extended period of nuisance type snow showers. As of right now though, it appears as though any snow should stay north of the border. The pattern does look like it should shift a bit further south on Thursday though, with low pressure moving through the Great Lakes generating some precipitation well out ahead it over New England. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /through Saturday night/...VFR holds through the midnight hours, but conditions deteriorate from west to east in the pre-dawn reaching IFR by Sat morning. Extended period of IFR through Sat night, with LIFR probably at times Sat night. Also FZRA/PL expected Saturday night. Long Term...Expect IFR/MVFR Sunday morning. Some fog may be possible early Sunday morning as warm air moves over whatever snowpack may be left by that time. Otherwise, cigs and vsbys will drop to MVFR as rain showers move through the region. High pressure builds over the region for Sunday through Wednesday with mainly VFR conditions expected. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Saturday night/...Currently the waters are mainly below SCA levels. MAy seem S flow pick up and approach SCA winds during the day Sat, with building seas as well, and will likely need SCA Sat night in SW flow. Long Term...Will likely need a Small Craft Advisory or a Gale Warning Sunday night and Monday as gusty northwest winds develop behind a passing cold front. No other flags expected during this timeframe. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028. NH...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for NHZ001>015. MARINE...None. && $$ Cempa/Pohl  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KSTO 152328 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 328 PM PST Thu Dec 15 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Wet and windy weather with high-elevation snow into tonight. Showers ending over the Sierra on Friday. Freezing temperatures in the valley this weekend with dry conditions. Mainly dry next week except for a chance of light showers during mid week. && .Discussion... The main 4+ anomaly TPW plume has moved inland ahead of the vort max near 30N/130W with widespread precip across the CWA, save for the extreme Nrn Shasta Co mtns (Zone 13). Radar loop showed heavy rain from Lake Co into Butte Co and then into Wrn Plumas. Smaller bands of heavier rain noted across Sierra, Nevada, Placer counties with rain rates up to .80 per 3 hrs. The heavier bands of rain should sag SEwd through the evening hrs over the CWA as the short wave trof off the Nrn CA coast moves inland overnite. This short wave energy seems to have invigorated the front just N of SAC. As an example, at 2230z-2320z, the one hour accumulation showed a heavy rain band up to .50" per hour and small pixels of .80-1.0" from SMF-BAB and this will sag SEwd into the SAC and probably Nrn SJV area this evening. This has prompted the issuance of a FLS for all or portions of the Srn Sac/Nrn SJV/Delta. The short wave off the Nrn CA coast will shunt the main plume and main rain band Swd into and south of the 80/50 corridor through the evening/overnite hrs. Snow level profilers indicate the snow level ranging from 7000 ft over Shasta Co to 8000-9000 ft over the Sierra and these levels won't lower over the Sierra until after midnite. Precip will rapidly coming to an end on Fri and it appears we can contemplate ending the winter storm warnings late tonight or early Fri morning, about 12 hrs or so earlier for zone 69. Some showers and much lower snow levels expected mainly over the west slope Sierra on Fri as secondary energy rotates through the upper trof during the day. Radar indicates the back edge of the main area of rain has basically sagged south of the far Nrn Shasta Co mtns and rates have let up. By late afternoon a band of post frontal showers has developed in the EKA area and will cross the Coastal Range this evening. QPFS in this area should be lower tonite than early in the day as the main band of rain has shifted Swd. Surface pressure gradient MFR-SAC has weakened to 5 mbs and the winds that occurred overnite and early this morning over the Nrn portion of the CWA have weakened. Will continue the Wind advsry for the Srn portion of the CWA due to the front sagging SWd over that portion of the CWA this evening, along with the 925 mbs wind core of 50 kts also sagging Swd over the Srn portion of the CWA this evening. Winds/Rain rates should peak this evening in the SAC area around 02z-04z time frame, and possibly until 06z in the Nrn SJV. Weather clears out Friday night as upper ridging develops over the eastern Pacific and northerly winds develop. Clear skies and cold airmass will allow overnight lows throughout the central valley to drop to near or below freezing. Coldest nite appears to be Sat nite into Sun morning where they will be several hrs of temps =<28f for "Hard Freeze" conditions especially in the Nrn/Central Sac Vly. High surface moisture may allow for some fog to form as well especially southern Sacramento and northern San Joaquin valleys where winds should be a little lighter due to decoupling. Sunny skies Saturday will allow for a little warming some areas but cold airmass will keep highs below normal. Sunny skies and continued breezy north winds are expected on Sunday with a little warming but daytime highs are still expected to remain below normal. JHM && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday) An upper level ridge of high pressure will bring dry conditions to northern California Monday and through the day Tuesday. The next weather making system will be approaching the region Tuesday night as a upper level shortwave trough slides across the Pacific northwest. This system will bring rain to the valley and snow to elevations higher than 4000 to 5000 feet Tuesday night through Wednesday. Model differences are still present for the timing and progression of the system next week, but models in general agree to having a stormy pattern return for the forecast area. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal. && .AVIATION... Low ceilings and reduced visibilities will continue as a storm system passes over Norcal the next 12 to 18 hours. Occasional wind gusts up to 20 kts possible in the valley with gusts up to 45 kts for the mountains. Conditions will improve for valley terminals late Friday morning to early Friday afternoon. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late tonight for Burney Basin / Eastern Shasta County-Central Sacramento Valley-Clear Lake/Southern Lake County-Motherlode-Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Northern Lake County-Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley- Northern Sacramento Valley-Northern San Joaquin Valley-Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta County-Southern Sacramento Valley- West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park. Winter Storm Warning until midnight PST tonight for Western Plumas County/Lassen Park. Winter Storm Warning until 4 am PST Friday for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada. Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Carquinez Strait and Delta-Motherlode-Northern San Joaquin Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KLMK 031428 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 928 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 .Forecast Update... Issued at 925 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 Mid-level stratus deck persists this morning. It showed up nicely in the morning lows this morning, with readings in the upper 30s to around 40 over northern KY and southern IN and readings around 30 over south KY. GOES-R MVFR probability maps show this layer well, with little movement. Forecast soundings from the RAP and NAM indicate this moist layer drying up from above in the 18-21Z time frame, but cloud deck above will keep us mostly cloudy the rest of the day. Those high clouds will thicken up tonight. Model timing still looks good for light precip to begin later this evening over our KY/TN border and then progressing northward. May make a later tweak this morning as 12Z models pour in. && .Short Term (Now through Sunday)... Issued at 220 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 An early morning analysis showed surface high pressure across the mid MS and lower OH river valleys. Aloft, a deep closed low was centered along the AZ/Mexico border, which was helping to push a plume of mid/high clouds across the southern Plains into the TN Valley. Locally, IR satellite showed a stratus deck across Indiana and northern KY with just high clouds across southern Kentucky. Readings were in the mid 30s to lower 40s. For today, expect a mainly cloudy but dry day. There will be a small diurnal rise in temperatures today with highs in the low/mid 40s across southern Indiana to mid/upper 40s across southern Kentucky. Increasing isentropic lift with the approach of the upper level shortwave energy will break out light precipitation across Tennessee this evening. This will move into southern Kentucky after sunset then spread north/northeast through the night. Precipitation type will be mostly rain but a few wet snowflakes may mix at the onset, especially across southern Indiana and parts of northern Kentucky however no accumulations or impacts are expected with very warm surface ground temperatures. Lows will be generally in the 32-38 range. Weak but persistent isentropic lift will keep pumping more moisture into the region on Sunday along with another mid level wave coming out of Missouri and Illinois later in the day. This will keep the threat of light rain throughout much of the day. Overall, amounts are expected to be 0.25 of an inch or less, with the highest amounts focused along the KY/TN border. High temperatures will again be stuck in the 40s. .Long Term (Sunday night through Friday)... Issued at 225 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 An unsettled week weather-wise with several systems to focus on early this morning. In the wake of Sunday's rain maker, a brief lull is in store Monday morning as a quick moving high pressure system slides across the region. Lingering low-level moisture and a light wind field may promote patchy fog development early Monday morning, otherwise plan on temperatures starting out in the mid/upper 30s. A strong, more organized upper level shortwave and surface low pressure will kick out of Texas and lift toward the region late Monday into Tuesday. This well-advertised system will spread rain from the south/southwest into the area Monday evening and especially throughout the day on Tuesday. Some heavy downpours will be possible. All of the available forecast guidance is in reasonable agreement so precipitation chances remain in the 80 to 100 percent range Monday Night and Tuesday. Soundings do show some elevated instability across parts of central Kentucky so the isolated thunder mention looks good as well. Total rainfall for this event is currently projected to be around 1 inch for most of the area. As that system lifts through the region, the focus turns to the north as a strong upper level closed low drops out of Canada into the Upper Midwest. Pieces of energy will pivot along the base of the upper trough while at the surface, strong Canadian high pressure dives southward. There remains some differences in timing between the GFS, GEM and ECMWF solutions showing a strong cold front passage between Wednesday night and Thursday afternoon. The ECMWF is a slower, wetter but warmer solution while the GFS and GEM are less phased which results in lighter QPF but bringing the cold air in sooner. A model consensus blend was used which shows low chance precipitation chances with mostly rain in the forecast though the GFS solution would support some snow on the back end of the cold front passage. Regardless, the main highlight will be the sharply colder temperatures in its wake, beginning potentially Thursday but more likely Thursday Night and Friday. High temperatures on Friday may struggle to break 30 degrees in many places after starting out the morning in the teens. && .Aviation (12Z TAF Update)... Issued at 616 AM EST Sat Dec 3 2016 Pesky low clouds continue over SDF and LEX. These clouds have not been handled well by the forecast models and now are difficult to see beneath higher clouds on satellite pictures. At this time the thought is that these clouds will continue for several more hours before finally letting go. There may be a brief period shortly after sunrise where they scatter out before filling back in for the rest of the morning, before breaking up for good by midday. Ceilings should be just barely VFR. For the rest of the TAF period higher clouds will stream in from the southwest ahead of an approaching storm system. Clouds will slowly lower and thicken as the TAF period progresses. Some very light rain could fall at BWG in the last few hours of that site's TAF period, and sprinkles or flurries may occur at SDF in the planning period. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Update...RJS Short Term........ZT Long Term.........ZT Aviation..........13  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KPAH 290417 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1017 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 1016 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 Post convective 30-40 knots southwest flow from 2-5kft agl showing up in KPAH VAD wind profile. This continues to advect moisture along the gradient of a low level ridge axis. This has generated a band of stratus streatching along the Southeast Missouri Foothills into Southwest Illinois. The model suite is finally picking up on this cloud cover and the forecast has been updated to reflect this change. The GOES-E 4km cloud thickness, VFR to LIFR probability images are depicting this area well. Anticipate this area will remain in place overnight, gradually lifting by 14z Tuesday. UPDATE Issued at 557 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 Allowing the remaining wind advisory for West Kentucky to expire as scheduled at 6 pm CST. The convective line and associated sustained wind/wind gust potential will have moved east of the WFO PAH forecast area by 6 pm CST. A wake high building northeast across the area within an hour after the passage of the convective line will keep south-southeast winds in the 20 to 30 mph range, with a complimentary increase on the western side of the high over Southeast Missouri. Adjusted winds within the last 45 minutes to account for the increase in winds. They should remain below wind advisory criteria. The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 235 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 Large area of moderate rains producing storm totals thus far on the order of 2 to 2.5 inches over southeast Missouri and far southwest Illinois will be coming to an end late in the day. Amounts have been less the farther east one heads, but will continue to rise through the early evening before all ends over the Pennyrile of western KY by around 8 or 9 PM. Will be fairly rapid drying behind this system overnight. Temperatures will actually warm nicely on Tuesday with a return to some periods of sunshine and southerly breezes around 10 mph. Forecast confidence decreases Tue night through as deterministic models diverge on the track of a southern stream system across the southeastern United States. The ECMWF seems by far to be the farthest north and west, with additional light rain tracking well north into wrn KY all the way up to the Ohio River. GFS/Canadian agree on farther south/east track and keep most of the region rainfree. Out of respect for the EC...will bring some chancy POPs back into western KY Tue night, but main message is no real impact expected from this one. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind the system on Wed/Wed night as westerly winds gust over 20 MPH in many locations. Temps will be back down into the 30s by late Wednesday night. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 245 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 Decent confidence in the first part of the long term period however, we are still having model discrepancies over the weekend. On Thursday, our region will be on the south side of a deep upper level low centered over southeastern Canada and into the Great Lakes. This low will continue to push eastward, which will help keep things rather cool across the area for the last few days of the work week. High pressure will eventually build into the area which will mean dry weather to end out the week. Plenty of low level moisture rotating around the sfc low in the eastern Great Lakes will mean more cloudiness though, especially in our northern and eastern sections. While models start off pretty consistent with the upper level pattern to start out the weekend, they diverge fairly quickly. Models are in agreement that a closed upper level low will develop over the southwestern U.S. on Friday. How this system evolves as it slides eastward becomes a problem. The GFS/GEFS/Canadian continue to indicate a split flow pattern with a shortwave trough racing east across the Plains and into our region by Saturday night/early Sunday and the closed upper low shifts south and eventually lifts northeast into TX and impacting our area by Monday night. So that provides us two opportunities for precipitation, with the first being fairly light. The ECMWF does not indicate this split flow pattern and simply brings an upper trough across the central Plains Friday night into Saturday night. Strong cyclogenesis develops over the lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday. This sfc low shifts northward/northeastward bringing us precipitation Saturday night through Sunday night. So even though there continues to be discrepancies in the models, the next chance for precipitation could arrive Saturday night but would be light so POPs will be only slights. However, the timing of when the main closed low/upper trough swings through remains a problem...so POPs for Sunday will continue to be low but not nonexistent. Still plenty of time for things to stabilize. High temperatures should generally remain in the 40s for the most part. A few locations could reach close to 50 degrees during the extended period. Lows will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s. && .AVIATION... Issued at 557 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016 The fine line has cleared the area, but the bubble high pressure behind it has created some nice southeast winds in its wake. Figure on some 15-20kts southeast flow for a few hours beginning near the back edge of the precipitation shield which should be clearing KPAH at 00Z. With west southwest winds off the surface, threw in LLWS until the surface winds veer back to southwest later this evening. There has been pretty nice improvement to VFR conditions for the most part behind the main convective line, but there are signs of low clouds behind the upper cloud shield over southeast Missouri and southward into eastern Arkansas. Once the winds veer to southwest, we should be advecting better low-level moisture to the region, which the GFS and NAM hit hard for IFR or lower fog and/or low clouds. Took each site to IFR levels as a first guess mainly overnight into Tuesday morning. South winds should pick back up by late morning and help with the clearing process. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...Smith SHORT TERM...GM LONG TERM...CW AVIATION...DRS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDMX 271004 AFDDMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Des Moines IA 404 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016 .SHORT TERM.../Today through Tonight/ Issued at 404 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016 This morning... Radiational cooling having big impacts across northern Iowa. Models incorrectly proggd mid/high level clouds to help impede fog development. However, those mid-level clouds over the Great Lakes region now and clear skies have been in place. Temperatures across northern Iowa have fallen to the mid 20s, leading to freezing fog. With no apparati to lead to notable temp increases before sunrise, expect freezing fog to remain a hazard through sunrise as temperatures to remain below freezing. This afternoon into tonight... 06Z Water vapor imagery picking up on an impulse of moisture trekking across the Great Plains towards Iowa associated with a shortwave that is expected to phase with a deep upper low located near the Rockies along the Canada/U.S. border. Models have become extremely well-converged in terms of their solutions...so have gone with an overall consensus blend for timing. Accompanying sfc low to be in Nebraska by 21z Sun and over eastern SD by around 06z Mon. With the low well to our west, we are able to tap into sufficient gulf moisture for precip via a 45kt LLJ. PWATs are over an inch, which is high for this time of year. Even a few rumbles of thunder are possible as 0-6km muCAPE values make it into the 300 j/kg range. Soundings are very well-saturated in the low levels, suggesting a very cloudy day at the very least...and cloud thicknesses deep enough for sustained precip beyond drizzle. With the expected cloud cover and precip, Sunday daytime temperatures may be slightly overdone, so will need to monitor this. As we remain in the warm/WAA sector overnight, diurnal temperature range between Sunday and monday will be very low. In fact, temperatures may increase slightly....leading to the possibility of record high min temps. .LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday/ Issued at 404 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016 The upper level low pressure will be centered over the eastern Dakotas on Monday. The mid level dry slot will be over Iowa Monday morning. Some uncertainty regarding how much stratus will be lingering Monday morning and how deep. If the low stratus is still intact, likely will have a few areas of drizzle. A boundary will move through central Iowa Monday afternoon with a few showers possible ahead of the front. The NAM solution is the most aggressive with weak convective instability developing ahead of the boundary and is an outlier at this time therefore will keep the mention for thunder out. The upper low will progress very slowly east across Minnesota on Tuesday and Wednesday then become more progressive Wednesday night and Thursday as it reaches the eastern Great Lakes. Conditions will be cooler and mostly dry on Tuesday. Light precipitation chances will arrive Wednesday as a more cyclonic flow develops with the upper low beginning to transition further east. Precipitation type will be a mix of rain and snow. Deep cold air will exist above 2500 ft with precipitation type and melting dependent on sfc wetbulb temperatures. With deep cold air aloft need wetbulb temperatures near 34.5 F to ensure melting and a transition to rain. This will be close on Wednesday but a reinforcing push of cold air will aid the transition further Wednesday night. Light accumulations of snow may occur over northern Iowa and cannot discount accumulations over 1 inch. The end of the forecast period will remain cool with highs in the 30s. The potential for very light snow or flurries will persist through the period as northerly flow continues and periods of stratus move through. && .AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening/ Issued at 536 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016 Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through mid-morning Sunday. The exception is across northern Iowa, where we may see some fog development once again overnight. An old, decayed surface trough is draped across southern Minnesota where winds have gone calm beneath clear skies. However, up toward MCW winds are still light from the southwest and it remains to be seen whether either the trough or associated fog will get as far south as MCW. By midday tomorrow an approaching storm system will result in rapidly expanding and lowering ceilings across the region, with showers and possibly a few thunderstorms bringing IFR conditions by the mid to late afternoon and evening. MVFR ceilings may arrive a few hours before the rain, but IFR ceilings will be tied to it. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for IAZ004>007- 016-017-025>028. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kotenberg LONG TERM...Donavon AVIATION...Lee  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KABR 270907 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 307 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 307 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016 Two main items of concern for the forecast, the dense fog in the very near term and then the strong, potentially record breaking low for KABR, for tonight into early next week. First for the fog, this fog has been persistent over central MN and steadily shifted west into far northeast South Dakota this past evening. Have seen widespread 1/4mi visibility with the fog and the going dense fog looks to be in good shape for that area. GOES FLS IFR probs have a good handle on the westward extent in the current dense fog advisory and are hinting at some fog farther to the west. That shallow/patchy dense fog has been seen at times in Brown and farther southeast towards Clark/Hamlin counties. While webcams are sparse, not seeing too much for thick fog, so will continue to go with the SPS through 8am for the patchy fog. The main question is how long the fog will last. high resolution models show this fog sticking around through much of the morning for the far northeastern CWA before visibilities gradually lift into the afternoon (similar to yesterday in central MN). After discussion with surrounding offices, will hold on to current dense fog end time and monitor through the morning hours for extension. While temps remain in the 20s...do think there is the potential for light icing and slick spots on roads and will continue that mention in the statements. Outside of the fog, expect some high clouds to start the day before thicker clouds quickly move in during the late morning and afternoon associated with the low that will move into the area. This low will rapidly develop and move northeast today as a strong shortwave and pv anomaly (currently over the four corners region) moves into the region. Models are continuing to show an upper 970s low over far northeast SD by 12z Monday, which should produce a new November SLP record at KABR. Plenty of lift present with the shortwave and low, so expect rain to quickly move into the area late this afternoon and into the early evening hours. Behind the initial surge of precipitation, models are indicating a dry slot to slide just to the SE of the CWA but most of the CWA will be experiencing lighter precipitation associated with the surface and mid level low over the area, thus held on to higher end PoPs. The biggest uncertainty is the amount and location of precipitation on the back side of the low associated with the nose of the TROWAL. The location will be key, as colder air will be working into the area as that precipitation occurs and changing it over to snow. GFS/ECMWF are fairly consistent with surface/upper low track and have similar thermal fields, while the NAM is a little farther to the west and colder. Will trend towards the GFS/ECMWF idea for the tonight through Tuesday period. That will hold off the change over to snow over the far west until late evening and shortly after midnight towards KMBG. Expect that transition to continue eastward through the night, reaching the James River valley around 12z. Will continue Thunder mention with weak MUCAPE values and marginal 700-500mb lapse rates and showalter values. The low will slowly wobble and weaken around the SD/ND/MN border through Monday night before beginning to slide to the southeast across MN on Tuesday. With that location and abundant moisture in place, expect fairly steady light precipitation to be ongoing through much of the Mon-Tue period. While precip will start as snow aloft, there may be enough low level warming to mix the snow with or change it over to rain at times, especially over the southern and eastern portions of the CWA Monday afternoon. Do wonder if models are overdoing surface temps a touch and with wetbulb0 heights only above 700ft from the Coteau and eastward could see p-type being more snow than the forecast currently indicates for Monday afternoon. Will need to watch over the next couple of shifts. While the precip and snow will be persistent, not expecting too much of an impact or significant accumulations (generally an inch or two every 12 hours). In addition, with temperatures rising to around or just above freezing during the day on Monday/Tuesday, that should help keep the roads more on the wet side outside any of the stronger periods of snow. Finally, there will be breezy NW winds developing Mon afternoon and continuing into Tuesday. Going consensus looks pretty good with gusts to 30kts towards KMBG. With warm temps and generally more of a wet snow, don't expect too much blowing snow through Tuesday, although there could be some light drifting snow over the northwest CWA at night when temps cool slightly. That idea is supported by the Baggaley blowing snow model which struggles to give probabilities of blowing snow exceeding 20% on Tuesday when snow is occurring. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday) Issued at 307 AM CST Sun Nov 27 2016 A large upper level trough will be over much of the country when the extended period begins, with the main low center spinning over Minnesota. The amplitude of the trough begins to get dampened by mid week, with a brief return to ridging Friday and Friday night before another shortwave approaches Saturday. At the surface, a strong low pressure system will be centered over Minnesota Tuesday night, then remains there before drifting off toward the Great Lakes Wednesday night. Will still see decent chances of precipitation Tuesday night and Wednesday, with light snow likely lingering into Thursday night as well. Snow accumulations Tuesday night into Wednesday may be an additional 1 to 3 inches. The remainder of the period looks dry at this time as high pressure slides across the region Friday and Saturday. Daytime highs will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s through the period, with overnight lows in the upper teens to mid 20s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued at 1137 PM CST Sat Nov 26 2016 Dense LIFR fog has spread over much of Minnesota and far northeast South Dakota and continues to very slowly move west. While a more shallow IFR fog extends from KATY to KABR. Expect IFR visibilities to continue through the night at KABR and KATY...perhaps dropping to LIFR at times. Conditions should gradually improve after 15Z Sunday. There will be a break where VFR conditions return Sunday afternoon. However, a low pressure system will move into the region later in the day Sunday. This system will initially bring rain to the region, with lowering ceilings and reduced visibility likely late in the TAF period. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for SDZ008-021. MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MNZ039-046. && $$ SHORT TERM...SRF LONG TERM...Parkin AVIATION...Serr  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMPX 260928 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 328 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 328 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016 Main forecast concern deals with areas of dense fog where skies cleared overnight in the region that had more snow cover. Since Friday evening, skies slowly cleared across central/east central Minnesota, and into west central Wisconsin. As skies cleared, and winds remained light, fog formed, especially from Litchfield, east to the Twin Cities, and northward into central Minnesota. High clouds began to filter eastward across Minnesota after midnight, which limited the spread of the fog west toward west central Minnesota. In addition, and based on GOES cloud thickness layer, and visfog satellite trends, the thicker clouds were spreading northeast into northeast Minnesota, with thinner clouds and more fog across central Minnesota. This will lead to any fog this morning to quickly burn off. However, due to the weak boundary layer wind field and model trends of expanding the cloud cover back southward later this afternoon/evening, kept temperatures cooler in this region. Elsewhere, more sunshine and warmer air spreading eastward, 40s will be common, even a few upper 40s are possible in south central Minnesota. Only forecast change tonight is to continue clouds spreading southward, and the formation of fog once again. Boundary layer winds are high enough to limit widespread fog from forming. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 328 AM CST Sat Nov 26 2016 Model agreement regarding the evolution of a closed low ejecting from the Rockies to the Upper Midwest during the long term forecast period continues to improve gradually with each successive run. Confidence is high that we will see rain across the forecast area on Sunday evening through Monday as the associated surface low lifts north from eastern Nebraska/South Dakota toward North Dakota. Expect most of the forecast area to see around one half inch of rain or more by Monday evening with elevated instability parameters still indicative of the potential for a few claps of thunder. Monday night into Tuesday looks to be a period when most of the forecast area will be in the dry slot, until Tuesday afternoon and night when wrap-around precip moves in as the low lifts to the Arrowhead. We have the potential to warm up substantially on Monday afternoon with any amount of clearing given the southerly flow. Highs in the lower 40s to lower 50s are anticipated. Monday night the intrusion of colder air aloft will trigger the introduction of a rain-snow mix, with mainly snow expected Tuesday night. Wednesday and Thursday still look to be cloudy with light precip as we remain in the cyclonic flow on the western fringes of the departing trough, with dry high pressure gradually working in by next weekend. With the influence of the trough mid to late next week, there will be little diurnal variation in temperatures, with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1048 PM CST Fri Nov 25 2016 Eastward moving back edge of low stratus has stalled its progression over central MN. However, where areas have cleared out in western MN, fog has filled in. Slow snowmelt is feeding the low level moisture while no dry air advection is available to scour it out overnight. In fact, am expecting most areas to have winds drop to calm late this evening through the overnight hours. This combination is fairly susceptible to more widespread fog formation. But, it's a matter of timing and aside from KAXN, the influx of IFR-or-worse conditions has been quite slow. Thus, have modified the theme of IFR-or-lower conditions for the 26/06z TAFs, which is to not hit conditions quite as hard and to shrink the durations. Model guidance has by-and-large not been that helpful so confidence is not that high in the next 6-9 hours. Conditions will gradually improve during the day tomorrow as ceilings lift then decks scatter out. KMSP...Will be a rather tricky overnight period as the ragged western edge of low stratus will be nearly atop KMSP. This will play with the low stratus versus fog setup overnight. Confidence is not all that high that IFR conditions will be realized at MSP but should winds remain in the 3-5 kt range, then chances are pretty good of having IFR ceilings. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sun...Mainly VFR. MVFR/IFR with -SHRA late. Wind SE 10-15 kts. Mon...MVFR early with -RA. Wind S 10-15 kts. Tue...MVFR/IFR. Chc -RA/-SN. Wind SW 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLT LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...JPC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KILX 251546 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 946 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 945 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2016 Main concern remains with the extensive cloud cover and how it will affect temperatures today. Morning sounding continues to show a subsidence inversion around 870 mb, with cloud thicknesses around 1800-2000 feet per area pilot reports. Some small breaks have formed across northeast Illinois and a bit of sunshine is likely around Champaign and Danville through midday, but there still is a lot of cloud cover upstream through central Iowa. Forecast soundings show the cloud thicknesses shrinking with time, and some more sunshine should start to appear over the southwest CWA by mid afternoon. Temperatures are running a few degrees below the original forecast curve, and have been updated to lower highs a degree or two. Radar mosaics showing rain and snow showers across Wisconsin and parts of northeast Illinois ahead of a shortwave pushing through the Minneapolis area. Some earlier sprinkles passed just north of our CWA, with the HRRR suggesting the activity currently over west central Wisconsin may make a close pass as well later this afternoon. Have added a few sprinkles to the far northeast fringes of the CWA this afternoon, but am not expecting anything significant at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 310 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2016 Low clouds continue to blanket much of the Midwest early this morning, and it appears any clearing across central Illinois will be a slow-go today. 09z/3am IR satellite imagery shows overcast conditions extending as far west as eastern Nebraska/Kansas. While there had been a few breaks in the overcast across eastern Missouri earlier, those have since filled back in. Latest HRRR forecast shows cloud cover holding firm until late this afternoon across the far SW KILX CWA. Have therefore slowed the clearing trend and have gone with a cloudy forecast today. In addition, a short-wave trough skirting by to the north may bring a few sprinkles to locations north of Peoria. Once the wave passes to the east, skies will finally clear from west to east tonight. Due to extensive cloud cover, high temperatures today will be held in the middle 40s. Low temperatures tonight will dip into the lower 30s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) ISSUED AT 310 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2016 Upper-level ridging will build into the Midwest for Saturday and Sunday, providing warm and dry conditions. High temperatures will climb into the 50s both days. The next chance for precipitation will hold off until Sunday night when a short-wave trough approaches from the west. 00z Nov 25 models are all in good agreement with the track and timing of this feature, with rain showers becoming numerous across the area Sunday night. Once the initial wave lifts into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, a lull in the precip will be observed Monday morning before another more significant wave approaches later in the day. With deep-layer southwesterly flow in place from the Southern Plains to the Ohio River Valley, copious amounts of moisture will flow northward ahead of the next disturbance...with GFS precipitable water values reaching near record values for this time of year around 1.25. The wave will interact with this ample moisture to produce heavy rainfall across parts of central/southeast Illinois. As has been seen with recent model runs, the latest run is suggesting the heaviest rain axis will set up across the SE CWA from Monday afternoon through Monday night. All models are now advertising a quicker exit to the system, with the rain diminishing to scattered showers by Tuesday morning. The latest projections show rainfall totals of 1 to 1.50 along/south of I-70. Once the early week storm passes, a return to mild and dry weather is anticipated for the remainder of the extended. The 00z GFS/ECMWF both feature dry conditions for Wednesday and Thursday, with another wave lifting northeastward across the Tennessee/Ohio River Valleys. This scenario would keep rain chances southeast of Illinois across Kentucky/southern Indiana. Meanwhile, the GEM features a much stronger wave tracking further to the northwest, resulting in rain across central Illinois on Wednesday. Given the poor performance of the GEM as of late and the fact that its the definite outlier, have rejected its solution in favor of the dry GFS/ECMWF consensus. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 559 AM CST Fri Nov 25 2016 High pressure will track across the central Illinois terminal area through the 12Z TAF valid time. The MVFR CIGs trapped across the area today will gradually lift to VFR by this evening. The skies will eventually scatter out tonight. Generally light winds will prevail through the period. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM...Barnes AVIATION...Bak  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 222150 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1250 PM AKST Tue Nov 22 2016 .DISCUSSION... Models...Over northern Alaska and the arctic the solution remain similar with good run to run continuity, to the south of the Alaska Range and over the Bering Sea they diverge quite a bit beyond 102 hours and are a bit jumpy from run to run. Most active area during the short term will be the eastern arctic coast. Initialized well against the 22/18Z surface analysis. Will lean on a blend for the short term forecast, making only minor adjustments to the forecast database for the near term. Aloft...At 500 hpa...A 534 dam high near 77N 180 in the arctic with ridging extending south to a 530 dam high center over the central interior. A 516 dam low over the Bering Strait will merge with a low over Siberia. A 503 dam low will move over the west coast of Banks Island this evening with a shortwave moving over the eastern arctic coast tonight. A 519 dam low will develop over the Seward Peninsula tonight and over Kotzebue Sound by Wednesday morning, then moves east and merges with the low over Banks Island. This will cutoff the 530 dam high over the interior and the high center will move southwest over Nunivak Island by Wednesday afternoon, then merge with a ridge over the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Thursday evening. A shortwave will spin around the low near Banks Island to be over the eastern arctic coast early Wednesday morning, and over the Brooks Range by Thursday morning. A shortwave created by the merging of the low that was over Kotzebue Sound will move to lie from over Fairbanks to Upper Cook Inlet early Thursday morning, and will move east over the AlCan border by Thursday afternoon. At 850 hpa...A general cooling trend across the forecast area with the 20 below celsius isotherm moving over the eastern arctic coast Wednesday morning and pushing south to Brooks Range Wednesday afternoon, and by Thursday afternoon it will lie from Eagle to Allakaket to Point Lay. The cold air will remain over the area through Friday then gets pushed slowly back to the north to the Brooks Range by Sunday afternoon. Models are indicating a much stronger surge of cold air pushing south to the Alaska range next week. Surface...General cyclonic pattern continues over the mainland with ridging pushing south over the arctic plain from a 1032 mb high that will be near 79N 170W Wednesday morning. A weak trough over the eastern arctic coast persists. A 1010mb low near Banks Island will spin a cold front to the eastern arctic coast Wednesday morning, and to the Brooks Range Wednesday evening. A weak leeside trough remains in place north of the Alaska Range in the vicinity of Delta Junction over the Tanana Flats. The Tanana Jet remains in place and winds will diminish Wednesday as the east to west gradient breaks down. Winds over the upper Yukon will diminish this evening as the gradient over that area relaxes. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Status quo with the stratus. Ridging persists offshore and pushes to the Brooks Range, but that will not change much as far as the stratus goes. The cold front moving to the eastern arctic coast overnight is not looking to have much impact, possibly better chance for some snow, but the system does not appear to be bringing much wind with the cold air so blowing snow should not be an issue. A general cooling trend as that cold air starts impacting the eastern arctic coast initially with cold spreading south and west the remainder of the week. Northeast winds will swing around to west and northwest to the east of Barrow as the front moves in. NPP-VIIRS SPoRT Nighttime Microphysics product at 22/1841Z shows a solid stratus deck east of Point Lay over the coast and plains. GOES MVFR/IFR probability product at 22/1845Z indicates mainly MVFR conditions with some IFR conditions east and south of Nuiqsut over the coast and plains. West Coast and Western Interior...Some patches of stratus and high clouds in the area associated with and upper level trough over the area. Light snow being reported with the low stratus in several areas. Expect the stratus to dissipate in place overnight in most areas. High clouds will clear slowly through the evening. No significant winds, but they will pick up a bit over the lower Yukon Delta and St Lawrence Island with gusts to around 25 mph as the trough in the central Bering Sea slides east a bit overnight. Some Marine stratus over the Bering Strait and St Lawrence Island will persist with occasional flurries. Temperatures steady, but cooling as we approach the weekend. Central and Eastern Interior...Mostly clear conditions, light winds, temperatures steady through Wednesday then cooling through the weekend. Still have some stratus hanging around in the upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile country with some flurries, and do not expect that to dissipate next 24 hours. Also some patchy stratus in the upper Yukon Flats around stevens village that will persist. Coldest temperatures this morning in the upper Yukon were around 35 below, expect more of the same tonight. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB NOV 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KLOT 221142 AFDLOT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 542 AM CST Tue Nov 22 2016 .SHORT TERM... 357 AM CST Today through Wednesday night... Main forecast focus in the short term period is with precip producing system which will move across the region later today through Wednesday. Early morning GOES water vapor imagery depicts a fairly vigorous mid-level short wave propagating across the southern Rockies. This wave is progged to lift northeast across the Plains and into the mid-Missouri Valley by evening while weakening, while additional energy rotates through the base of the upper trough into the region through Wednesday. Deep layer flow will veer southerly in advance of the upper trough today, increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent in the mid-upper levels and eventually saturating the column from the top downward across the area by tonight. While some light precip may begin to make its way to the surface across far western/northwestern IL late this afternoon, dry low level east-southeasterly flow will likely slow the eastward advance until the evening. This dry low-level air, with sub-freezing wet bulb temps will likely result in a brief period of sleet/snow/rain transition at onset, though surface temps should remain above freezing and forecast soundings indicate the entire column should saturate/warm above freezing across the area as steadier precip (changing to all rain) moves in overnight. Models continue to depict mid-level dry slot moving across the area early Wednesday morning which will likely taper the intensity of rain, though saturated conditions below about 700 mb combined with large scale ascent associated with the approach of the upper trough will likely result in persistent light rain or drizzle through the period. Far northwest and especially the far southeast counties of the cwa look to be on the edges of the dry slot and more apt to see steadier rain through much of the day Wednesday. Any lingering showers will end Wednesday evening as the upper trough axis moves east of the area, and subsidence develops beneath strong height rises in the wake of the departing system. Despite thickening mid-level clouds today, temperatures are expected to warm into the low-mid 40's across the area, and hold in the mid-upper 30's tonight. Moist low level south flow in advance of weakening surface low on Wednesday should push temps in to the upper 40's across southern parts of the cwa. Ratzer && .LONG TERM... 357 AM CST Thursday through Monday... After a dry Thanksgiving Day, a less-amplified, fast moving short wave will affect the region Thursday night into early Friday. Guidance does not produce much in the way of QPF with this feature, but forecast thermal fields and nighttime/early morning arrival do indicate the potential for a short period of mixed precip after midnight through just after sunrise. Soundings do indicate boundary layer wet-bulbs just above freezing which might help keep things wet rather than icy, but will have to continue to pay attention to trends with rain/snow mix for early Black Friday. Things dry out heading into the weekend, before another upper trough approaches Sunday. Medium-range models continue to have a tough time with the pattern by that time, with troughiness of various amplitude and timing into early next week. There is some agreement in overall lower heights and a long-wave trough setting up over the central CONUS however. Have indicated chance pops in the days 6-8 period, though confidence in details is rather low due to wide spread in model solutions. Ratzer && .AVIATION... For the 12Z TAFs... Southeast winds and primarily VFR conditions will prevail across the area this morning and this afternoon. There is some concern that some of the lake clouds could shift over the terminals this morning, particularly between 12Z and 15Z in which case there may be a window of high end MVFR (020-025). Otherwise expect southeast winds to pick up above 10 kt with a few gusts in the mid to high teens possible this afternoon. Low pressure will lift across the mid Missouri Valley this evening with a warm front lifting into northern Illinois. Initially dry low levels will take some time to saturate, and there is still a possibility of some sleet mixed in at precip onset as evaporative cooling occurs within this dry layer. Confidence remains a bit low in this, so will maintain a prob30 for sleet in the meantime. Once the column saturates though, have high confidence in rain late this evening and overnight. Cigs will continue to lower to low end MVFR late tonight with IFR probable as we head into Wednesday morning. As mid level dry slot punches into the area mid to late tomorrow morning, precip may taper to a drizzle at times, but expect periods of rain to continue beyond the current TAF period through mid to late evening when a trailing cold front will finally move across the terminals. BMD && .MARINE... 312 AM CST Ridge of high pressure over the area this morning is allowing light flow over most of Lake Michigan but expect southeast flow to increase across southern Lake Michigan initially as low pressure approaches the region over the next couple days. A small craft advisory will be needed for the Illinois nearshore zones by late this evening and remain in effect through Wednesday evening when the low center approaches far southern Lake Michigan. For the Indiana zones, off shore flow will help keep waves in check overnight but still expect winds to reach criteria by early Wednesday morning and persist into the afternoon. Winds will turn westerly behind the low on Thursday, then a secondary front will move across the region on Friday with west/northwest flow increasing back into the 20-25 kt range. BMD && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742...MIDNIGHT Wednesday TO 3 PM Wednesday. Small Craft Advisory...LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...6 AM Wednesday TO 3 PM Wednesday. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KTAE 180755 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 255 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2016 .NEAR TERM [Through Today]... Deep layer ridging will remain over our area for one more day before a pattern chance over the weekend. There will only be a slight increase in low level moisture as winds become more southerly by afternoon. After another cool start to the day, temperatures will warm into the lower 80s inland areas and mid to upper 70s along the coast. .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]... The upper trough which is currently over the western CONUS will translate eastward across the eastern CONUS this weekend. A surface cold front will move southeastward across our forecast area on Saturday, though the coldest air won't arrive until Saturday night. The various NWP models continue in good agreement in this being a dry frontal passage as poor thermodynamics, combined with the greatest Q-G forcing remaining to our north, will significantly limit cloud thickness and water droplet growth. Lows Saturday will range from the upper 40s in north FL and south central GA, to mid 50s west of Tallahassee and Albany, where there will be a bit of warm advection ahead of the approaching cold front. Highs on Saturday will range from the mid to upper 70s in north FL and south central GA (ahead of the cold front for much of the day), to around 70 in southeast AL and western portions of the FL Panhandle. Despite the wind remaining near 5 MPH over land much of Saturday night, low temperatures Sunday morning will still reach the mid to upper 30s, with patchy frost possible. Highs on Sunday will only be in the lower to mid 60s despite plenty of sun. .LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]... The airmass over our region to begin the week will be exceptionally dry, allowing low temperatures to plummet to near freezing Sunday night as the winds go calm. Another light freeze is possible Monday night, though the non-MOS guidance appears to be too quick to warm the low levels up...a common bias of the raw model output. Deep layer ridging will develop over much of the Southeast mid week, accompanied by milder temperatures and fair weather. An upper level trough and attendant surface cold front will move through the forecast area late Wednesday or early Thursday. Like the systems before it, rain chances will be slight. && .AVIATION [Through 06Z Saturday]... VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals under clear skies. Winds will be light, mainly from the southeast to south. && .MARINE... Low winds and seas will persist through tonight. North winds will increase quickly from west to east behind the cold front on Saturday, and advisory conditions are likely by late Saturday, lasting through Sunday morning or early afternoon. Much lower winds and seas are expected late Sunday and Monday as a high pressure ridge develops near the region. && .FIRE WEATHER... No concerns today. We may approach red flag criteria across a small portion of the inland Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon as winds increase and RH values decrease in the wake of a cold front. These conditions will coincide with high ERC values. For Sunday through Tuesday, widespread minimum RH values from 15 to 20 percent are expected, so Red Flag criteria looks likely to be met in Florida, assuming critical ERC values are reached. Winds will be fairly light on those days, so we are not anticipating red flag conditions across our Alabama and Georgia zones. && .HYDROLOGY... Our area's drought will continue unabated through at least mid week next week. Even then, rain chances appear slight and QPF amounts low. Longer range numerical guidance and teleconnections suggest a possible change in the large scale weather pattern near the end of this month, with rain chances returning to near average. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 81 51 75 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 77 61 71 43 63 / 0 10 10 0 0 Dothan 81 53 68 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 82 51 72 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 81 49 75 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 81 49 77 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 76 59 74 42 63 / 0 0 10 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Barry SHORT TERM...Fournier LONG TERM...Fournier AVIATION...Barry MARINE...Fournier FIRE WEATHER...Barry HYDROLOGY...Fournier  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KAKQ 151619 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1119 AM EST Tue Nov 15 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds over the southeast states. A weak trough of low pressure pushes through the Mid Atlantic and Northeast states on Wednesday...with high pressure then building over the local area Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Latest visible satellite imagery depicts a narrow band of stubborn low clouds extending from Richmond southward into interior northeast North Carolina. GOES cloud thickness tool indicates the deck is thinning as it slowly pushes east. HRRR indicates the cloud band will dissipate by 17-18Z. Otherwise, mid level clouds persist over the northeast forecast area as additional upper level energy pivots around the upper low over Pennsylvania. Some light radar returns observed along the Potomac. Light rain is possible across the Northern Neck, but do not anticipate anything measurable. Cyclonic flow persists over the region today as additional energy digs into the Southeast states, reinforcing the upper trough over the eastern US. Cold air advection wanes as 850mb temperatures level off around 3-4C. Latest statistical guidance continues to back off slightly on high temperatures today, but with mostly sunny conditions southeast to partly cloudy northeast expect temps to warm into the upper 50's to around 60 northwest to low to mid 60's elsewhere. Mostly clear tonight with lows in the mid to upper 30's inland to the low to mid 40's near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The next northern stream disturbance (located over the northern Plains as of Tue morning) digs into the northern Mid- Atlantic region by Wednesday morning. Model trends are somewhat weaker with this feature and the shortwave looks to become sheared out as it reaches the local area. An associated cold front is forecast to push across the forecast area during the afternoon. Moisture will be limited along the boundary, with precipitable waters at or below one half inch. Slightly more moisture across the northeast, but overall think the limited moisture and dry sub-cloud layer will be too difficult to overcome and have gone with a dry forecast (as the energy and lift will be more likely to just generate clouds). Sky averages mostly sunny southwest to partly cloudy (possible mostly cloudy for a time late Wednesday afternoon/Wed evening) northeast. Highs mid 60s SW to around 60 F MD eastern shore. Shortwave pushes offshore late Wednesday night as the front pushes offshore. Clearing skies overnight, with lows generally in the upper 30's to low 40's inland to mid to upper 40's near the coast. Heights build Thursday as an anomalous upper level ridge builds over the eastern half of the US. High pressure builds into the region, centering over the Mid-Atlantic region Thursday afternoon. GFS/ECMWF show 850Mb temperatures rising from +3 to +6C at 12z/Thu to around +10 to +12C (+1 standard deviation) by 00z/Fri. However, soundings show a subsidence inversion around 900-875 mb thu aftn so that surface temperatures will not warm as much as the rising 850 mb values would suggest. Still a nice day under sunny skies and highs rising to the mid-upper 60s well inland to the low 60's along the coast. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The long term begins with an upper level ridge over the area providing dry and mild weather. An upper level trough over the Great Plains will move east and dig south through the Mid Atlantic States by Sunday. A cold front is progged to cross the area Saturday evening. Moisture with the front will be limited but have POPS of 20 to 30 percent affecting the CWA with light rain showers. Enough cold air aloft pours in Sunday to suggest a little snow could mix in. The colder air Sunday will come on drying northwest winds. With surface temperatures well above freezing...kept it all rain at this point. A large polar high pressure system begins to build in from the west late Sunday and Monday. High temperatures well into the upper 60s/lower 70s Friday, will lower slightly to the 60s/around 70 F and Saturday, then fall off significantly and only be in the lower to the mid 50s Sunday and around 50 F on Monday. Lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Friday through Sunday mornings lower to the 30s Monday morning. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Sfc low pressure off the Delmarva will continue to track NNE. Variable low clouds/Cigs to IFR/LIFR will continue through 14Z, fog will generally remain W/SW of the Taf sites (though may affect RIC). Conditions improving from mid/late morning on as low pressure pulls well away to the NE. Beginning this afternoon...most of the period will be dry with high pressure dominating. A weak front/sfc trough crossing the region will bring a period of BKN cloud cover,mainly affecting northern portions Wed aftn/evening. Dry/VFR Thu and Fri. Another round of showers is possible late Sat/Sat night as a stronger cold front moves through. && .MARINE... SCA headlines remain in place until 7 am this morning for the entire Ches Bay, and until 1 pm this aftn for the entire coastal waters. Early this morning, sfc low pressure was cntrd just off the MD/VA coast. The low will lift NNE to just east of Long Island by this evening. Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots will diminish to 5 to 10 knots by early tngt. Seas 3 to 5 ft will subside to 2 to 4 ft. Benign marine conditions then expected for tngt/Wed as high pressure builds twd the area fm the west. A weak cold front crosses the area late Wed/Wed ngt, with at most marginal SCA conditions possible behind the front late Wed ngt into Thu aftn. High pressure then builds over the waters for late Thu into Sat morning. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650- 652-654-656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB/SAM SHORT TERM...LKB/SAM LONG TERM...LSA AVIATION...LKB MARINE...TMG  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 151155 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 255 AM AKST Tue Nov 15 2016 .DISCUSSION... Models...So big changes since yesterday in the upper level situation as the models are developing a low aloft over Huslia by this evening and bringing it over the south central interior by Wednesday night as a closed 536 dam low. This in turn will impact the precipitation forecasts from the models which have been flopping around on coverage and amounts most of the time during the last couple months. The major features around the low have not changed from what previous solutions over the weekend where producing. Models also continue to struggle with temperatures over the forecast area. Going to go with an equal blend for the short term as that should help capture the precipitation for most of the area, but may over forecast it in a few areas. Will continue to lean toward the GFS for the midrange and a blend of the Ensemble means for the extended periods. Aloft...At 500 hpa...The low near Wrangel Island yesterday is 400 nm west of Wrangel island at 495 dam with a trough extending over Shishmaref to King Salmon, the low that was near Kodiak is 300 nm southeast of Kodiak City at 525 dam, and the closed high has moved over Nuiqsut at 531 dam, and a 530 dam high has developed over the Copper River Basin. This afternoon a 528 dam low will develop over Huslia, then moves southeast over Lake Minchumina by Wednesday afternoon at 534 dam then drops south over Upper Cook Inlet by Thursday morning at 537 dam. A ridge will build north over the west coast tonight behind the low with 540 dam heights reaching north over Norton Sound. The high over the Copper River Basin will build to 540 dam and builds north over the AlCan border. Ridging will continue to build over the west coast through Thursday, and a 548 dam high center will develop over the northwest coast early Friday. At 850 hpa...Temperatures in the interior will continue to cool through midweek, while temperatures over the west coast will start a slow warmup as the ridge build over the coast. Over the Fairbanks area temperatures will fall to around 14 below celsius by Wednesday then start to slowly warm. Surface...Pretty messy pattern over the state with no dominant features. a weak trough lies over the western interior and weak troughing extends east in the Yukon Flats. The stacked low over the north Pacific with a 988 mb center at the surface will drift southeast as it slowly fills, and will be over the Queen Charlotte Islands by Wednesday morning at 1007 mb. A 1027 mb high will develop over the Kuskokwim Delta today with ridging extending east over the south slopes of the Alaska Range. The high will move into the Middle Yukon Valley by Wednesday morning with ridging extending east into the upper Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country. Weak troughing over the Tanana Valley today will slowly move north to the south slopes of the Brooks Range by Wednesday morning. The ridging will continue to expand as high pressure builds to 1034 mb with centers over the middle Tanana Valley and the middle Yukon Valley. By Thursday morning a 1040 mb center will be over the upper Yukon Flats. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Stratus and areas of fog today, with some improving conditions from Barrow west as the flow turns offshore tonight and winds pick up to around 20 mph. For today the for and stratus will be accompanied by flurries in most areas and some light snow over the northwest coast and western Brooks Range. GOES MVFR/IFR Probability products at 15/1015Z indicate extensive areas of low stratus from Wainwright east, and observations confirm this. Temperatures slowly cooling today, then warming from the west as ridging build over the northwest coast. West Coast and Western Interior...Trough over the western interior will produce some light snow with additional snow amounts today up to 3 inches. Snow tapering off through the day as it slowly moves east. High pressure building over the Kuskokwim Delta and a broad area of low pressure moving into the Bering Sea will produce some strong winds over the eastern Bering Sea and west coast. Temperatures cool a bit today, then start a slow warm up as the flow turns from the south. Central and Eastern Interior...Some patchy dense fog around the Tanana Valley this morning so have issue a dense fog advisory through noon. Spotty snow around the interior will bring some snow to most areas, and most of those areas will be getting around an inch of accumulation today. Temperatures will continue to cool through the week. Clearing skies late Wednesday and Thursday will allow for good radiational cooling and that will lead to more seasonal temperatures. Winds generally light and variable. Some gusty north winds developing in the Alaska Range passes Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds over the interior. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory for AKZ222. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ215. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220. && $$ SDB NOV 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KHNX 131433 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA 633 AM PST Sun Nov 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Dry weather and above normal afternoon temperatures will continue through Tuesday with patchy dense fog in the San Joaquin Valley during the late night and early morning. A Pacific storm system will bring and a chance for some light precipitation on Wednesday with cooler conditions and increased winds through Thursday. && .DISCUSSION...Fog has increased in coverage across the San Joaquin Valley this morning. GOES-W LIFR probability indicating dense fog possible north of Kern County, mainly along and west of Hwy 99. A dense fog advisory has been for this area through 10 AM. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM PST Sun Nov 13 2016/ DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery showing clear skies over central California at this time as East Pacific ridging builds inland. Patchy fog is forming in the San Joaquin Valley and some locally dense spots are possible through sunrise. Otherwise, temperatures will warm up to well above normal again today with highs generally around 10 degrees higher than mid November averages. The ridge will continue into early this week for little change in conditions. A Pacific trough will move inland on Wednesday for a chance of precipitation. The modTrend continues to show a weaker and more northerly track with this system. QPF is unimpressive with only a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch in the mountains with highest amounts around Yosemite NP. The SJ Valley may only see a trace to a few hundredths on an inch with many areas likely remaining dry. Snow levels look to be near 7,000' around Yosemite on Wednesday afternoon when the best chances develop, then drop to around 5,000 feet Wednesday night as showers diminish. Given the low QPF, only a dusting of snow to around one inch is expected. The trough quickly shifts east with more upper ridging building in Thursday and Friday for dry conditions. The ridge axis then shifts over the Rockies next weekend a trough amplifying off the coast. Right now it looks like a dry southwest flow aloft will prevail over central CA with moisture steered over the Pac NW and northern Ca. Winds will remain light through Tuesday then increase with breezy to locally windy conditions developing Wednesday through Thursday. Temperatures will lower to near normal Wed-Thurs then trend back up to several degrees above normal Friday into the weekend. && .AVIATION...In the San Joaquin Valley...MVFR conditions will prevail in haze and mist during the next 24 hours with areas LIFR in fog through 18Z. VFR conditions can be expected elsewhere across the central CA interior during the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... On Sunday November 13 2016...Unhealthy for sensitive groups in Fresno...Kern...Kings...Madera and Tulare Counties. Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno...Kern...Kings...Madera...Merced and Tulare Counties. Further information is available at Valleyair.org && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information an/or to provide feedback. && .HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning CAZ089>092. && $$ public...DCH avn/fw...Dudley synopsis...DCH weather.gov/hanford  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDTX 071051 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 551 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 .AVIATION... Southeast flow off Lake Erie last evening brought added boundary layer moisture into metro Detroit, which led to the rapid development of fog. Per recent IR imagery, the thickest/more widespread fog is located along/southeast of the Irish Hills (extending from roughly Lapeer to Hillsdale). To the northwest of this line, the character of the fog has been more shallow, with greater visibility fluctuations. There is a south-southwest flow atop the nocturnal boundary layer. This is likely inhibiting the more widespread dense fog from pushing north of the hills. So any fog at MBS and FNT should erode fairly quickly after 13Z. PTK may be a little later, although recent IR imagery is indicating that the strengthening low level SW flow is already eroding the fog depth around PTK. The greater depth to the fog layer in metro Detroit suggests a late morning, possibly even early afternoon, erosion of the fog/low stratus. For DTW...The depth of fog across metro Detroit is such that it is going to take quite a while to mix out given the November sun angle. An increase in the SSW winds above the fog layer this morning does however add some degree of uncertainty in timing visibility increases above a quarter mile. Taking into consideration the expected increase in the low level flow, an improvement in the visibilities will be forecast to occur by 16Z. Recent model guidance does suggest additional southeast flow off Lake Erie this evening, which again may lead to fog development late in the evening. There is enough uncertainty with this scenario to support not going too aggressive in forecasting evening fog attm. Observational trends will however be monitored through the afternoon //DTW Threshold Probabilities... * High for ceiling/VV below 200 ft and/or visibility 1/2SM through mid morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 249 AM EST Mon Nov 7 2016 DISCUSSION... Southeast flow off Lake Erie yesterday evening introduced just enough near surface moisture to allow for dense fog to encompass much of southeast Michigan this morning. Dense fog advisory was expanded to the Thumb Region based off latest trends. Watching Flint Vicinity closely, but dense fog having tough time coming off the higher terrain of northern Oakland county with light southerly winds providing downsloping component. Winds trending light southwest across Tri-Cities region may also be enough to keep the widespread dense fog away there. High temperatures today really could end up anywhere between 55 to 70 degrees, ultimately dependent on when the fog mixes out, as pronounced upper level ridge and and very dry air aloft remains in place. Developing low level southwest flow during afternoon should help, and expecting dissipation around noon. Will thus forecast the middle road for highs, low to mid 60s, as 925 mb temps seen rising to 12 C, but mixing up to that level today is no guarantee. Strong upper wave/trough along the far southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba border to dive southeast through the Central Great Lakes on Tuesday. Model trends (especially GFS) a bit slower, indicating late day frontal passage. The northern stream wave attempts to merge with upper level energy and moisture over the central plains, and thus it appears the front will be a bit more active, with sufficient moisture and forcing indicated to support likely pops for south half of the CWA. Consolidating upper level PV/500 mb low quickly moves into the Central Appalachians Wednesday morning, with yet another amplified upper level ridge to build into the Great Lakes Region Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday Night. Strong warm advection pattern (850 mb temps rising into lower teens by Thursday) with surface winds attempting to decouple Wednesday night could set the stage for fog and/or low stratus development (see nam soundings), as westerly flow off Lake Michigan helps the cause. Strong westerly flow developing during Thursday ahead of a strong cold front dropping nearly due south from the Northern Great Lakes. Winds could be end up being stronger than the outgoing forecast if the low stratus does not develop Wednesday night and we get better mixing during the day on Thursday, tapping into at least 35 knots at 925 mb. Maxes could also potentially be warmer, reaching 60+. Heart of the Cold Air (850 mb temps of -10 C or colder) looks to be tracking through Eastern Great Lakes/New England on Friday, with southeast Michigan getting more of a glancing blow. None-the-less, still looks to be close call for potential Lake effect activity impacting the Eastern Thumb region, but at this time, it appears most of the activity will remain offshore with the low level winds being near 340 degrees. MARINE... The slow departure of sfc high pressure to the east of the Great Lakes today will place the region within increasing southerly flow. The persistence of very mild air atop Lake Huron will support continued strong over lake stability, thus limiting the strength of winds at the lake surface (gusts mainly under 20 knots). Lakes St Clair and Erie will see much lighter wind speeds today given the closer proximity to the sfc high. Winds will veer to the southwest tonight as a cold front approaches the region from the northwest. Strong stability in the prefrontal warm sector will keep strongest wind gusts below 25 knots. The cold front will traverse Lake Huron on Tuesday and Lake St Clair and Erie Tuesday evening, causing winds to veer to the northwest. Post frontal cold air advection will cause an uptick in the northwest winds Tuesday night. Recent guidance continues to suggest peak wind gusts topping out around 30 knots. Winds will then weaken Wednesday as high pressure expands across the region. Longer range models indicate a surge of arctic air overspreading the Great Lakes Thurs night into Friday, likely accompanied by northwest wind gusts around or above 30 knots on Lake Huron. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning FOR MIZ049-054-055- 062-063-068>070-075-076-082-083. Lake Huron...NONE. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....SC DISCUSSION...SF MARINE.......SC You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KHNX 051111 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA 411 AM PDT Sat Nov 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Above normal temperatures and dry weather will prevail across central California this weekend and through the upcoming week. Otherwise, patchy fog will be possible throughout the San Joaquin Valley each morning. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft remains in control with clear skies and light winds prevailing over central California. Fog is the main concern again this morning but thus far has not formed. Visibilities in the San Joaquin Valley have generally been in the 1-3 SM range, though Madera and Hanford have both fallen to 3/4 mile. But GOES GEOCAT LIFR probability has increased along and west of the Hwy 99 corridor from Merced to Hanford in the last half hour. The HRRR shows vsbys in this area dropping further through sunrise, but it was showing the same thing yesterday and they did not. So will continue to monitor the potential for some dense fog but it does not seem likely at this time. Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper trough off the Pac NW coast with an impressive band of moisture (PWAT ~ 1.5") ahead of it. Models agree that this moisture will stay to our north as the trough moves inland tonight, with just a few mid/high clouds for our area. The trough will increase the onshore surface pressure gradient today, resulting in windy conditions through and below the Kern County mountain passes tonight into Sunday. Westerly wind gusts are not expected to reach advisory levels but 30-40 mph is likely in some areas, such as around Mojave. Winds will diminish Sunday night as the gradient relaxes and turns offshore on Monday with light easterly winds through the week. Dry conditions are are also expected to prevail throughout the upcoming week as a positively tilted upper ridge amplifies over the western CONUS. Conditions will be favorable for fog in the SJ Valley each night. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday with some areas up a degree or two. The trough tonight will knock temps down slightly on Sunday, but they will rebound under the ridge early next week. Highs will generally be around 7-10 degrees above climatological norms, with the exception of Sunday when they briefly lower to around 5 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION...In the San Joaquin Valley, areas of MVFR visibilities due to haze for the next 24 hours. However, IFR with local LIFR visibilities will occur in fog between 12z and 18z Saturday. VFR conditions can be expected elsewhere over the central California interior during the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... On Saturday November 5 2016...Unhealthy for sensitive groups in Kings County. Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno...Kern...Kings...Madera...Merced and Tulare Counties. Further information is available at Valleyair.org && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information an/or to provide feedback. && .HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NONE. && $$ public...DCH avn/fw...Riley synopsis...DCH weather.gov/hanford  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 041457 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 957 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016 .UPDATE... We extended the dense fog advisory until noon. Visibilities are still less than a quarter mile in many locations inland from Lake Michigan. The SSEC Cloud Thickness product was showing values around 1000 feet at 1230Z this morning, suggesting it will take a few hours after sunrise to burn it off. That is definitely playing out here. There seems to be a slow drift east, but there are more holes growing in the fog per latest visible satellite imagery. As is typical with fog, some areas will burn off quicker than others. && .AVIATION/15Z TAFS/... Dense fog inland from Lake Michigan is persisting a little longer than expected this morning. Lighter fog and/or low stratus will dissipate by early afternoon. Very little afternoon cloud development with mostly clear skies. Areas of fog should then redevelop late tonight. There will be a little more boundary layer mixing than last night, so uncertain whether or not fog will become dense. && .MARINE...Areas of fog remaining inland. Hence removed fog mention over the near shore waters for the remainder of the day. Light wind regime will continue through the weekend, as large slow moving high pressure area passes by to the south of the Great Lakes. More inland fog is expected to develop tonight, however stronger boundary layer mixing should prevent fog from becoming widespread. Never the less, light southwest sfc winds may carry some of the patchy late night fog over the near shore waters. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 338 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2016/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast Confidence...Very High. Surface high pressure will dominate the region through the period. Dense morning fog will be likely across much of southern WI outside of near the lake. Fog will linger into mid morning before starting to burn off around 10-11am. Sunny skies will help temps rebound quickly to above normal levels. as surface high drifts south of the region today light westerly develop tonight...some patchy fog again possible with mostly clear skies and above normal lows. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY - Confidence...High Nearly perfect November weather this period. Broad northwest anticyclonic ridging prevails on Saturday before high amplitude ridging slides across Saturday night into Sunday. 925 temps will be in the lower teens celsius Saturday and Sunday with just a subtle drop to 10-11c for Monday although pre-frontal scenarios usually maintain temps or warm a smidge with thermal ridge amplification. So temps well into the 60s expected. The 12z ECMWF continued to show a faster and stronger solution with respect to next wave and approaching frontal boundary. This scenario would have some shra potential knocking on our western border towards the end of the day,however the latest 00z ECMWF run has backed off and will keep the entire forecast area dry during the day on Monday. However the GFS keeps things well west in MN and IA. Will stick with the dry look for Monday. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY - Confidence...Medium Looks like best window of any precip potential this package arrives this period. The ECMWF shows a fropa with shortwave passage Monday night while the GFS largely holds off on any shra potential until Tuesday. Again, the ECMWF shows a somewhat stronger system although the 00z qpf has backed off to zero from the 12z run which showed more qpf than the GFS. The GFS shows very light amounts. Will stick with the Superblend guidance for now. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AND THURSDAY - Confidence...Medium Surface ridging becomes re-established with 925 temps still unseasonably warm above 10c, so would expect more highs in the 60s. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...Dense fog will continue over south central WI including KMSN until shortly after sunrise. Lighter fog and/or low stratus will affect the se WI TAF sites this morning as well. The fog and stratus should dissipate by late morning. Very little afternoon cloud development with mostly clear skies. Areas of fog may then redevelop late tonight with vsbys mainly ranging from 3-5sm br. MARINE...Light winds and very low wave heights through the weekend. MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ046-047- 051-056>059-062>065-067>070. LM...None. $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...ABS && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until noon CDT today for WIZ046-047-051- 056>059-062>065-067>070. LM...None. && $$ UPDATE...MRC/MBK TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...ABS Saturday THROUGH Thursday...Collar  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KSHV 021221 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 721 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016 .AVIATION... For the ArkLaTex, VFR with light rain showers for LA/AR terminals as a weak upper disturbance lift NE out of the NW Gulf of Mexico. Some MVFR cigs and vsby may still affect TX terminals into mid morning. Otherwise VFR into the evening, but VLIFR-MVFR issues may develop by 03/09z with rain and fog through this cycle as a cold front shifts light SE flow to N/NE 03/ 15Z-21Z. Aloft, SW flow on climb out extends into FLs at 15-30KTS bcmg N/NW 03/18z from the sfc on up as dry Canadian air will spill down for Friday and wknd. /24/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016/ UPDATE... Scattered light rain showers were moving northeast along a Florien LA to a Strong AR line, courtesy moistening atmospheric levels and a weak embedded disturbance in the southwest flow aloft. Have elected to include a precipitation mention for the aforementioned area beyond 12Z this morning. Furthermore, have also expanded the patchy fog mention across portions of Deep East TX and central LA through 15Z, where thereafter it should scour out. Otherwise, the forecast is still on track for additional precipitation later this morning/afternoon across portions of the ARKLATEX and southeast OK. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 AM CDT Wed Nov 2 2016/ DISCUSSION... An upslope sfc regime has enveloped the Four-State region the last few days, resulting in dewpoints surging into the lower-middle 60s early this morning. Temp-dewpt spreads of 3 degrees or less noted across portions of Deep East TX and central LA would normally mean chances for fog, under ideal conditions. However, conditions are not exactly ideal as a plume mid-level Gulf moisture/cloudiness stretched from Lufkin TX to Prescott AR may aid to discourage fog from forming, though intermittent VFR-MVFR VIS is not completely out of the question. The UA ridge that was once a dominate synoptic feature for the region the last few days is now centered across the southeast CONUS, courtesy of an UA low across the Desert southwest. As such, southwest flow aloft has sharpened and subsequently the atmosphere in the upper levels is gradually moistening, which is validated by rather light radar echoes noted within the mid-level cloud deck across portions of the ARKLATEX. Have therefore opted to include a mention of a few sprinkles early this morning. The previously mentioned UA low is progged to cutoff from the overall synoptic flow and become quasi-stationary across the Desert southwest for the next 24 hours or so. As large scale ascent provided by the downstream UA low becomes a bit more prevalent, coupled with southeasterly sfc winds /thus garnering PWATS of 1.50- 1.70 inches/ and southwest flow aloft, will lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today-tomorrow. Concurrently, a broad UA trough translating across the Great Lakes region and the northeast CONUS will send down a cold front tomorrow. Although a few showers may initially develop along the front, it is anticipated not to last very long given the dry air accompanying the front /PWATS dropping to below 1.00 inch starting tomorrow night/. With the UA ridge making a return to the FA by the end of the week, and the already dry air in place, rain chances will diminish and skies will clear but temps will be cooler given the CAA ushered in by the front /highs in the 70s Friday through the end of the extended period/. The stubborn Desert southwest UA low will finally eject northeast /while opening up/ to across the High/Northern Plains likely not to impact the region. Right on its heels, will be another UA trough that models are struggling to resolve, for today the GFS hints at it becoming cutoff across west TX thereby resulting in little to no precip chances, versus a progressive UA trough and increased precip chances next week per the ECMWF. The Super- blended solution certainly appears to be biting off the latter solution, so will hold on to slight chance pops attm, keeping in mind this may change in the near future. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 84 67 82 62 / 20 10 30 10 MLU 86 63 85 59 / 20 10 20 10 DEQ 80 63 82 55 / 20 20 20 10 TXK 81 66 80 58 / 20 20 30 10 ELD 82 64 81 56 / 20 10 30 10 TYR 81 67 80 62 / 20 30 30 10 GGG 84 66 82 62 / 20 20 30 10 LFK 85 67 84 65 / 20 10 20 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 24/29  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KCAE 020854 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 454 AM EDT Wed Nov 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A pressure ridge will extend through the forecast area through tonight. The ridge will weaken Thursday ahead of a cold front. The front will move through the forecast area Thursday night. Cooler weather will occur behind the front over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The main forecast problem is fog this morning. Based on the GOES LIFR probabilities, HRRR, and observations in the piedmont we have posted a dense fog advisory in the area extending from Newberry County to Lincoln County. High low-level moisture and elevation has helped cause enhanced fog in this location. Elsewhere in the forecast area, low-level moisture and nocturnal cooling has helped cause areas of stratus and fog early this morning. Observations in the area showed a decrease in dew point temperatures from southwest to northeast. The KCAE 88D showed 1000-foot wind of 10 to 15 knots. The slightly drier near-surface layer and a little mixing may continue to limit dense fog and we have held off issuing a dense fog advisory for now. The moisture is shallow because of ridging at the surface and aloft. Heating and mixing should dissipate the stratus and fog later this morning. Wind should be light with the ridge over the area today. Followed the consistent temperature guidance. Nocturnal cooling and low-level moisture should help support fog again tonight but it may be limited because of upper cloudiness. The models indicate considerable upper moisture moving into the area from the west north of a flattening upper ridge. Forecasted patchy fog. The temperature guidance was consistent. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... The ridging over the area will continue to weaken Thursday ahead of the approaching cold front. The front should move through the area Thursday night. It will be warm ahead of the front Thursday. Followed the temperature guidance with highs in the middle 80s. These readings will be close to records for the date. The record high at Columbia Metro for November 3rd is 88 set in 1974. The record at Augusta Bush for the date is 86 also set in 1974. Mixing associated with the front should help hold up temperatures Thursday night. Leaned toward the higher temperatures guidance. Moisture associated with the front will be limited with h85 westerly flow ahead of the front. Followed the guidance consensus with pops near 20 percent south to 30 percent north. A little more moisture and lift associated with the upper trough supports the higher pop in the north. The NAM and GFS depict light rainfall amounts of less than one-tenth of an inch. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A dry air mass will dominate through the medium-range period behind the front. It will likely be breezy just behind the front Friday. The GFS and ECMWF MOS were in agreement with pops less than 20 percent through Tuesday. The models were close with seasonably cool temperatures Friday through Saturday. The ECMWF MOS indicated higher temperatures compared to the GFS later in the period. We followed an average of the guidance. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low level moisture combined with clear skies and light winds will set the stage for fog and low stratus development. Latest CAE VWP indicating a LLJ around 10 kts. Latest surface obs across the area early this morning show a wide range of conditions from VFR to IFR. Daytime heating should result in a return to VFR across the area by 15Z. Surface high pressure will promote light winds and mostly sunny skies for later today. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Early morning fog possible Thursday. Scattered showers and associated restrictions are possible Thursday night as a cold front crosses the region. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for GAZ040. SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for SCZ018-020- 025-026. && $$ SYNOPSIS...99 NEAR TERM...99 SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...99  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KLMK 311055 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 655 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Short Term (Now through Tuesday)... Issued at 319 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 ...An All-Time November Record High at Louisville on Tuesday?... Today and Tonight... A weak cold front is sliding south across Kentucky at this hour, with just enough post-frontal moisture to continue mention of a pockets of drizzle or sprinkles. Not seeing any sites measure, so will leave any mentionable pops out. Surface high pressure currently centered over the Great Lakes will quickly slide east toward New England today, bringing a slow return to southerly flow as the frontal boundary lifts back north as a warm front. The boundary combined with differential cloud cover from north to south should create a nice temp gradient. Look for highs around 70 north, to around 80 south. South winds stay up a bit overnight, which should yield mild lows in the low 60s in most spots. A few upper 50s NE are possible. Tuesday... Upper ridge centered over the Gulf Coast will strengthen over our region by Tuesday. We'll continue to see a decent pressure gradient with steady SW flow through the day. Good mixing up around the 850 mb level will help translate 13-14 C 850 temps to the low and mid 80s at the surface. These temps will likely break a few records at Louisville/Bowling Green. It will be close at Frankfort and Lexington. Most notably, the all-time warmest November high temperature at Louisville appears to be in jeopardy. It was 84 back in 1958. Feel pretty confident we will at least tie the record, but will go ahead and forecast a new record of 85 due to how dry and how much we have been overachieving under full heating/good mixing conditions lately. The other climate sites look to fall just short of their all-time record highs at this point but it will be close. Here are some Nov 1 records... Nov 1 Fcst All-Time Nov. SDF 83, 1987 85 84, 1958 BWG 83, 2000 85 88, 1909 LEX 83, 1987 82 83, 1987 FFT 84, 1950 83 84, 1987 & 1950 .Long Term (Tuesday Night through Sunday)... Issued at 319 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 ...Record Highs Possible Wednesday... Tuesday Night - Wednesday Evening... We'll stay under the influence of upper ridging and surface high pressure through mid week, keeping sensible weather dry and well above normal for temps. After mild overnight lows around 60 on Tuesday night, near-record highs are again expected on Wednesday. Look for low 80s. Sky cover will increase through the day as the upper ridge begins to break down in response to a shortwave across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. We'll keep the evening dry, but will look for precipitation chances as we move past Midnight Thursday. Below is a look at Nov 2 records, and forecast highs. Nov. 2 Fcst SDF 82, 1987 82 BWG 85, 1946 82 LEX 82, 1987 80 FFT 83, 1987 81 Wednesday Night - Thursday... Shortwave and it's associated surface low will push east through the Great Lakes and into New England by Thursday evening. This will drag a trailing cold front through our area, with solid rain chances in the 40-60 percent range. Wednesday night lows should be in the low 60s, with cooler highs on Thursday in the low 70s. Thursday Night - Sunday... Trough axis digs sharply and quickly through our area by Thursday night, and closes off over the SW Atlantic by Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a blocking upper ridge axis will move from the central Plains toward the eastern CONUS by Sunday. This brings a return to dry conditions with temperatures mostly in the upper 60s to near 70. Friday will be the coolest day with mid 60s. Lows will also be noticeably cooler well into the 40s each night. && .Aviation (12Z TAF Update)... Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2016 SDF/LEX: Seeing persistent fuel-alternate or worse ceilings at these sites. GOES-R MVFR probabilities showed a brief gap, at the same time SDF/LOU scattered out briefly. Those gaps are gone now. With heating, expect a slow rise in cigs into the early afternoon hours. Winds will shift from northeasterly now to southeasterly this afternoon and then become southerly overnight, as high pressure to our northeast today shifts farther east of us. BWG: Low clouds looking like they won't make it here. Vsby may drop into the MVFR range, but otherwise conditions look better than previously thought. Conditions should solidly be VFR by late morning. Winds will be variable through the period. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........BJS Long Term.........BJS Aviation..........RJS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KLIX 301316 AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 816 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016 ...SOUNDING DISCUSSION... Light winds and ample boundary layer moisture trapped beneath an inversion that extends to 1000 feet has fostered widespread fog development across much of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi this morning. GOES-R Fog and Low Stratus (FLS) IFR/LIFR probabilities more readily show the extent of the fog compared to the traditional brightness temperature difference. Otherwise, the atmosphere remains stable and dry with a precipitable water value of 0.86 inches. Winds are from the southeast in the low levels and then become from the west- southwest or west above 16000 feet. A peak wind speed of 32 knots was observed at 32000 feet. 12z balloon info: A routine flight ascending for 100 minutes to a height of 19.8 miles above the ground bursting north of Pass Christian 35 miles downrange from the office. Ansorge && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 AM CDT Sun Oct 30 2016/ SHORT TERM... The overall weather pattern through Tuesday will be very benign as deep layer ridging continues to dominate the Gulf South. As a result, clear skies and very warm temperatures can be expected. Highs will approach and even exceed record territory in many locations each day. Strong subsidence and a deep layer of drier air in the mid and upper levels will effectively kill most cloud development during the daylight hours. The biggest forecast challenge will be the extent and density of radiation fog that is expected to develop each night. Conditions remain optimal for locally dense fog to form over inland areas of the CWA each night due to the combination of clear skies, strong radiational cooling, and light boundary layer winds. Have issued a dense fog advisory for the early morning hours today, and another round of dense fog could easily develop both tonight and tomorrow night. LONG TERM... By Wednesday, the strong deep layer ridge axis should shift toward the eastern seaboard and Florida resulting in deep layer southerly flow over the area. Boundary layer winds should increase enough that the fog threat should diminish by Wednesday night. However, the probability of some rain developing over the area will increase as moisture deepens aloft and weak positive vorticity advection spreads over the region. Wednesday should see some strato-cumulus begin to form, but enough dry air should remain in the mid-levels to effectively cap off any convective potential. Temperatures should also cool slightly as the strong subsidence associated with the ridge will be significantly reduced. Daytime highs should only climb into the lower to middle 80s instead of the upper 80s. Thursday will be a day of transition as fast moving short wave trough moves through the Midwest and flattens the ridge across the Southeast United States. A weak cold front associated with the trough should slide into North Louisiana and Mississippi by Thursday evening. Conditions look favorable for some isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop across the forecast area, and have placed 20 percent POP in the forecast for Thursday. A secondary surge of energy into the trough over the Great Lakes should allow the trough to rapidly deepen over the Mid-Atlantic and New England states Thursday night and Friday. As this occurs, a strong upper level trough axis and the associated cold front trailing from the parent vort max over New England should sweep across the forecast area. There should be enough moisture convergence along the front to support some isolated showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday morning as it crosses Southeast Louisiana and Southern Mississippi. The strongest dynamics look to remain northeast of the area, so the threat of severe weather looks limited at this time. The front should be well offshore by Friday afternoon, and expect to see another ridge axis over the area by Saturday. A colder and drier airmass is expected to move in for the weekend, and overall temperatures should fall back to more seasonal levels for early November. AVIATION... Once again, fog starting to develop at several terminals. Most sites should experience reduction in vis. Those adjacent to bodies of water should fare a little better. But low ceilings may be the biggest issue at these sites. This same scenario will present once again tonight but may not be as widespread as this morning. MARINE... Winds should slowly ease toward the end of the work week. Caution flags will still be a possibility from time to time as winds will remain close to the 15-20kt range for at least the first half of the week. Winds will ease by Thursday and could even become northerly by Friday. DECISION SUPPORT... DSS code: Green. Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: None. Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green = No weather impacts that require action. Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high visibility event. Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory issuances; radar support. Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes. Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MCB 89 55 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 88 57 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 86 55 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 85 62 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 85 59 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 85 55 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for LAZ034>037- 039-040-046>050-056>059-065-071-072. GM...None. MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MSZ068>071- 077-080>082. GM...None. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KARX 270914 CCA AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion...Correction National Weather Service La Crosse WI 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tonight) Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016 Current GOES IR imagery showing the region engulfed in widespread stratus in the wake of low pressure over northern Indiana. GOES cloud thickness product indicating this stratus varying from 800- 1200ft thick, so not expecting any clearing overnight as a ridge of high pressure builds overhead by daybreak. In fact, this stratus looks to be be pretty stubborn today with perhaps some breaks west of the Mississippi. With anticipated cloud cover, temperatures will suffer some with highs ranging from the middle and upper 40s along and northeast of I-94 to the lower/middle 50s elsewhere. Southerly winds pick up through the night tonight as low pressure moves into the Dakotas. NAM bufkit along with majority of hi-res models showing the potential for more stratus/fog across the area tonight as fetch of moisture moves north out of the Southern Plans/Gulf in this southerly flow. Have partly to mostly cloudy going across the area, along with patchy fog mention west of the Mississippi River. Hopefully fog doesnt get too out of hand given the very moist ground/lower boundary layer...something to keep an eye on. Overnight lows look to be near 40 across central WI...to the middle 40s west of the Mississippi River. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016 Friday could potentially be a bit tricky given potential for stratus in moist southerly flow. Better potential for boundary layer mixing/sunshine will be across northeast IA/far southwest WI. Rest of the area looks to be in the stratus. This will have a definite impact on temperatures. Right now...going for lower 60s across central WI to the the upper 60s across northeast IA/far southwest WI but this may be a bit optimistic if more stratus materializes. Also of note will be gusty south winds in the 15-25 mph range with gust around 35 mph across the bluff tops along the Mississippi River and the more open areas of northeast IA/southeast MN. A cold front oozes slowly southward across the area Friday night into Saturday setting up a zone of baroclinicity. Meanwhile...the NAM/GFS/ECMWF all show a weak mid-level trough working on this baroclinic zone Saturday into Saturday night for a chance of showers. Otherwise, looks mostly cloudy through Saturday night with highs Saturday ranging from the lower/middle 50s across northern WI to the lower/middle 60s across northeast IA/far southwest WI. High pressure moves in Sunday for a pleasant autumn day. Look for highs right around normal in the 50s. Rain chances return Monday/Monday night as a rather strong low pressure system moves east out of the Dakotas and across Lake Superior. This system has the potential to pull some unseasonably warm air northward into the region Monday. Right now...looking at highs Monday ranging from the upper 50s across northern WI to the middle/upper 60s across the rest of the area. After what looks to be a quiet Tuesday under high pressure, look for rain chances again Wednesday as a weak Mid-level trough ripples northeast out of the Central Plains toward the region. Otherwise...temperatures look to be a few degrees above normal with highs well into the 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016 The surface low has moved into Indiana this evening taking the inverted trough out of the region as well. This has allowed the drizzle to end but the low clouds remain. A weak area of high pressure was moving in but satellite imagery shows the low clouds extend back past the ridge axis. With a very light wind flow expected until the surface ridge moves east of the area Thursday evening, not expecting any significant airmass change. This should keep the IFR/MVFR ceilings in place until very late Thursday afternoon or early evening. There should also be some light fog that develops overnight to take the visibility down to MVFR through about the middle of Thursday morning. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 343 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016 Minor flooding continues along the Cedar River in southeast MN/northeast IA, as well as along the Turtle Creek near Austin MN. Minor flooding is also forecasted for the Trempealeau River in west- central WI. See the latest Flood Statements for the specific river forecasts. Other rivers...streams and creeks also have rises but will remain below flood stage. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM....DAS AVIATION.....04 HYDROLOGY....DAS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KBTV 191048 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 648 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will bridge across the area today into tonight with variable clouds and continued mild temperatures. A sharp frontal boundary will develop across the region on Thursday into Saturday with widespread, occasionally heavy rainfall expected. As the front pushes east of the area by early next week a return to seasonably cooler weather is expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 648 AM EDT Wednesday...Minor adjustments to sky cover as we progress toward sunrise per latest satellite/observational trends. Also added at least some potential for some patchy mist/fog across the area later tonight, though confidence remains only modest for occurrence as mid to high clouds will be streaming northeast into the area over time. Highest probs for fog most likely across eastern VT where clearing will persist longer. Rest of forecast remains on track. Have a great day. Prior discussion... Generally quiet weather expected over the next 24 hours as the cold front which brought scattered showers to the region last night settles south into the Mid- Atlantic region. Variable clouds this morning should generally trend partly sunny in many areas today as high temperatures range through the 60s to around 70. This is still some 10-12 degrees above normal values for the date. Clouds may linger longest across the Adirondacks and portions of the southern SLV where residual moisture of Great Lakes origin is advected atop terrain on light west/northwesterly flow. Clear to partly skies this evening will then trend mostly cloudy later tonight in response to weak low pressure lifting northeast from the Ohio Valley ahead of evolving, seasonably deep upper troughing across the upper Midwest/northern Great Lakes. There may even be a few light showers advecting into the far southwestern Adirondacks and southern SLV toward morning, but by and large precipitation will hold off until after sunrise Thursday. During this time the large-scale background flow will begin to back to south/southeasterly, heralding a return of deeper moisture and strong warm thermal advection progged to arrive by later Thursday into Friday with potential heavier rainfall. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 442 AM EDT Wednesday...500mb trough continues to dig south while progressing eastward late in the week. Strong area of vorticity at the base of this trough will be associated with strengthening surface low pressure system tracking up the Ohio River Valley across PA and into the NE Thursday into Friday. Warm front ahead of this low will bring rain into the North Country. PWATs ranging from 1-1.25 inches, expect periods of moderate to heavy rainfall possible, especially across St Lawrence Valley to the Adirondacks as strongest deformation will focus around those areas. Trough becomes more neutral to negatively tilted late Friday, slowing the progression eastward. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 442 AM EDT Wednesday...Rain continues with longwave trough extended down from Quebec through the Carolinas. Added element of complexity to the forecast will be tropical/coastal system far offshore ESE of OBX. GFS keeps the progression of this trough faster than rest of observed model guidance. 00Z ECMWF shows moisture and energy from this tropical system feeding into the 500mb trough. This results in a closed low with strengthening surface low Friday night into Saturday. Storm total QPF continues to have heaviest amounts over the St Lawrence Valley...nearing 3 inches...tapering off eastward to about 1 inch in the CT valley. GFS outlier with heaviest amounts oriented slightly west across Adirondacks into Nrn Champlain Valley. As the trough swings through Saturday night into Sunday, W-NW flow filters into the North Country with cooler temperatures and some wrap around precip producing snow showers Saturday night, mainly for areas above 1500 feet. Upslope showers taper off Sunday night before a mid-level shortwave trough brings another chance for showers Monday, followed by building high pressure for the mid-week. && .AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Through 12z Thursday...SCT/BKN mainly VFR cigs to gradually trend SCT/SKC after 18Z under light west/northwest flow from 5-10 kts. After 00Z mainly SKC early, with thickening mid/upper clouds AOA 120 AGL arriving overnight in advance of stronger system. Winds light. Some patchy br/fg possible here and there, with highest confidence at KMPV. Confidence only modest of more persistent fg given aforementioned thickening mid/high clouds overnight. Outlook 12z Thursday through Sunday... 12z Thursday through 12Z Saturday: Trending OVC with areas of MVFR/IFR in steadier showers/rain as frontal system and complex low pressure affect area. Highest probs of IFR intially at NY terminals (KPBG/KSLK/KMSS) in closer proximity to developing front, with confidence lower initially at VT terminals. IFR probs climb for VT terminals after 00Z Saturday as frontal zone and steadier/heavier rainfal edge east. Again, this is a complex system so confidence on exact timing of pcpn arrival and cigs/vsby progs only moderate at this point. 12Z Saturday onward...widespread MVFR/IFR in showers/rain as low pressure lifts through region. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...JMG SHORT TERM...KGM LONG TERM...KGM AVIATION...JMG  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDVN 142059 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 359 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 334 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Latest SFC analysis was indicating tightening south to southeasterly pressure gradient up the plains and acrs the upper midwest. Low to mid 60 sfc dpts noted upstream of the flow acrs OK and northeastern TX. Solid stratocu deck from KS to central and eastern IA has eroded some in areas for partly cloudy to mostly clear patches. Aloft, vigorous vort max with associated baroclinic leaf was noted acrs southeastern MO and up the OH RVR Valley, while broad scale low amplitude southwesterlies occupied the western CONUS to the lee of Pacific NW storm system. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday) ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Tonight...Main challenge tonight will be the cloud cover and if it fills back in and engulfs the rest of the CWA into the early morning hours. Several of the short range models and their RH progs suggest that the stratocu will fill back in nocturnally and then continue to slide eastward overnight and will play it that way. Enough of a in-building southerly gradient to maintain sfc winds overnight of 8-12 MPH or so especially under areas of cloud cover. Will not put in any mention of drizzle or sprinkles overnight for now with questions of adequate cloud thickness and saturation, but there could be some acrs the far west and northwestern CWA late. Will go with lows in the 50-55 degree range with the cooler readings east of the MS RVR where clear skies linger the longest. With any delay in cloud cover making it into the east, lows could dip into the 40s in those areas. South winds will advect increasing sfc dpts and warmer air itself, making for some non-diurnal temp trends late tonight. Saturday...Current trends and fetch from the south should make for a mostly cloudy, breezy and seasonably mild day. Feel the NAM and GFS advecting mid to upper 60 dpts acrs the area overdone some, but could see the upstream lower to mid 60 readings make it acrs portions of the area by later afternoon. Cloud cover may make the cooler of temp guidance(The MAV's upper 60s to lower 70s) more in line, but for now will go with a model blend which advertises more in the way of low to mid 70s. If we were going to have full sunshine, highs would range from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Will keep the patchy drizzle or sprinkles in the west during the morning and early afternoon with some thickening of the deck expected, but the afternoon may be more in the way of sctrd light showers mainly along and west of the MS RVR. MUCAPES may range from 600 to around a 1000 J/KG west of the MS RVR by late afternoon, but it may be more the plume of elevated CAPES of 400-800 J/KG that support at least some isolated thunderstorms rooted aloft in northeastern IA mainly after 4 PM. Both llvl and deep layer shear will really be on the increase from the west as well late in the day and may allow for a stronger storm in the northwest toward sunset. ..12.. .LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday) ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Initial focus is with storms Saturday night and the potential for severe weather. A strengthening 40-45+ kt low level jet ahead of an approaching cold front along with increasingly diffluent flow aloft with a shortwave passing through the Upper Midwest will come together for showers and storms developing Saturday evening. Strong shear with 0-6km of 30-35 kts and modest instability with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg support the potential for a few strong to severe storms, especially west of the Mississippi River over portions of northeast and east central Iowa where best overlap of shear and instability is depicted. Main threat is large hail and damaging winds, but can't rule out an isolated tornado with 0-1km shear of 35-40 kts being depicted which is not too far off from last Friday, and with a bit more low level instability and weak SBCIN. In addition heavy rainfall is likely with strongest cells with precipitable water values around 1.5 inches, but fast storm motion should limit amounts and preclude any potential for flooding as it appears right now. Sunday the cold front looks to pull up stationary over roughly the northern half or so of the area, with weak ridging aloft. The concern will be potential for low clouds and a bust on highs (too warm) north of I-80, as BUFR soundings show decent inversion with abundant low level moisture and given time of year could be difficult to excavate clouds. I have started to trim back highs a bit on Sunday along and north of Highway 30 (lower 70s), but they could end up needing to be lowered further. Stayed near 80 south where anticipate more sunshine. Next week, the flow pattern will transition from southwest to fast zonal flow. The week looks to begin on an unseasonably warm note with highs well above normal (20-25+ degrees), with highs in the upper 70s and lower to possibly a few mid 80s Monday with gusty southerly winds. A cold front looks to pass Monday night into early Tuesday and indications are not much chance of rain with weak forcing. This front will gradually lower temperatures down from the 70s on Tuesday back into the 60s Wednesday still near to slightly above normal for mid October. The models really diverge mid to late next week on timing and evolution of western energy. General trends and signal support our next chance of rain late Wednesday through Thursday. ECM is more progressive and keeps bulk of energy and rain to our south and most of cwa on drier side. GFS being slower and stronger allows more moisture entrainment into evolving southwest to northeast baroclinic zone for a wetter and cooler scenario late Wednesday through Thursday. Blended forecast is not aggressive with pops and mild on temperatures mid to late week, but overall confidence is low. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon) ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT Fri Oct 14 2016 Main challenge will be timing MVFR stratocu deck from the west at the TAF sites, with CID and possibly BRL being the first to get under the deck this afternoon, and DBQ/MLI tonight. South to southeast sfc winds this afternoon gusting to 20 KTs where the sun lasts the longest or on edge of incoming cloud deck. Some IFR decks possible under brunt of the cloud deck overnight into early Sat morning, with 4-6SM VSBY around sunrise. Winds overnight to maintain from the south at 8-12 KTs. With southwesterly winds at 30+ KTs projected aloft at around 2000 FT AGL toward 12z Sat, not that far off of LLVL wind shear set up. Low MVFR cloud deck expected for much of Sat morning with southerly SFC winds picking up to 10-20 KTs by late morning. ..12.. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...12 SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM...McClure AVIATION...12  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KARX 121855 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 155 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2016 Radar showing last vestiges of mid-level wave induced deformation band showers now pushed east of the Mississippi River...and almost exiting east of the area. Otherwise, a chilly/cloudy Wednesday across the area with strong cold air advection/brisk northwest winds. Temperatures at 1 pm were in the 40s. For tonight...main concern focused on freezing temperatures. Visible satellite showing quite a bit of stratocumulus behind the departing wave piled up across MN/Dakotas. Initially thinking this may mess up temperatures and freeze headlines but GOES satellite cloud thickness product reveals clouds are only 700-1000ft thick which should scatter out under increasing subsidence with incoming Canadian high. Synthetic Low cloud/fog satellite product reinforces this thinking, showing scattering out of the clouds this evening. So, with colder airmass/good radiational cooling conditions tonight, looks like freeze warning headline looks appropriate with no changes planned. In addition, the synthetic low cloud/fog product shows a lot of river valley fog in some of the main river channels including the Mississippi River. This may lead to some hoar frost conditions as fog deposits rime icing on objects. Look for overnight lows ranging from the lower/middle 20s across the cold favored sand country of central WI...to the upper 20s/lower 30s elsewhere. High pressure remains in control across the region through Thursday night for dry/cooler than normal conditions. Look for highs Thursday in the 50s with lows Thursday night in the lower/middle 30s. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2016 Warm air advection sets up on Friday on the backside of the departing high and in advance of low pressure moving into the Plains. Breezy conditions expected, especially across the open areas of northeast IA/southeast MN. Look for south winds there in the 15-20 mph range with gusts of 25-30mph. Otherwise...looks mostly sunny across the area with highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Shower/thunderstorm chances look pretty good for Saturday into Saturday night as a cold front pushes in from the Plains. GFS indicating 0-3km MUCAPE in the 500-1000J/kg range with 0-3km bulk shear of 25-35kt by late in the afternoon/early evening. With this in mind, may have to keep an eye out for the potential for a few stronger storms mainly across northeast IA/far southwest WI. Otherwise...plan on highs Saturday in the middle 60s to near 70. Progressive flow aloft brings another system and round of shower/thunder chances into the region Sunday night into Monday. Look for highs Sunday in the middle 60s to near 70, and middle 60s to lower 70s on Monday. Latest GFS/ECMWF at odds on strength of incoming mid-level trough and resulting surface cyclogenesis potentially impacting the area Tuesday into Wednesday. GFS has a much deeper surface low moving through the Plains/Upper Mississippi River Valley. This brings a lot of rain into the region. The ECMWF on the other hand is much less excited, taking weak wave forcing mainly north of the area which results in a smattering of rain. Model consensus approach seems logical at this point until hopefully better agreement takes place over next several model runs. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2016 The cold front continued to push SE of the area at mid-day. Post- frontal deformation band of RA/SHRA continued to move east across the area, with the back edge on KRST at 17z. Distance-speed tool has the precip east of KLSE around 19z. MVFR clouds behind the front will be a little slower to clear the area. Distance-speed tool has the back edge of these clouds thru KRST around 2030z and KLSE around 23z. Some mainly VFR strato-cu then looking to linger into the evening, before finally clearing out during the mid evening hours as a chilly Can high builds into the Upper Midwest. Generally good VFR then expected late this evening thru Thu morning as the sfc ridge axis drifts across the Upper Midwest. Rain today then clearing after sunset does set the stage for late night/early morning valley BR/FG at sites like KLSE. Tricky this time with temps expected to dip below 32F and frost/freeze threat. If lows were going to be warmer, without frost deposition, IFR FG in the valleys would likely be more widespread centered on 12z Thu. For now included a BCFG SCT003 in the 08-15z period as a heads up. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for WIZ029- 032>034- 041>044-053>055-061. MN...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for MNZ079- 086>088- 094>096. IA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for IAZ008>011- 018- 019-029-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM...DAS AVIATION...RRS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KPHI 040051 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 851 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... An upper low will continue to weaken as it drifts eastward toward the New England coast tonight and offshore on Tuesday. High pressure centered over the Canadian Maritimes will build southwestward down the eastern seaboard during midweek and remain over the area through the end of the work week. Hurricane Matthew is forecast to track northward along or just off of the Southeast coast late this week before moving either farther up the East coast or out to sea. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... An upper-level trough, the weakening of the pesky weekend closed low, will swing across the region tonight. Some showers developed earlier with the daytime heating and increased instability, but the showers have mostly ended across the area. A few linger far NE adjacent to OKX's CWA. We issued a short term FLS earlier with a few slow moving showers dropping higher rainfall across nrn Cape May county. As the the upper-level trough starts to shift offshore toward daybreak, a ridge to the west will build. There will be some subsidence and therefore the clouds should thin out across much of the area for awhile. As the aforementioned ridge builds from the west, strengthening surface high pressure across New England will build southward. This will result in a surge of northeasterly winds starting toward daybreak. As this occurs, low-level moistening is forecast to take place which should result in some low clouds developing from the ocean. The extent of this is of some lower confidence, however it appears more likely closer to the coast. As a result, we increased the sky cover late. If the low clouds do not occur prior to daybreak, then some fog may develop (especially across the western zones). It appears that the depth of the low- level moist layer looks shallow and it may not arrive until daybreak for most, however this could result in patchy drizzle or sprinkles. For now, included a slight chance POP for a shower toward morning mainly across the eastern and southern areas with the incoming northeasterly surge. Added patchy fog in the grids for the overnight period, probably will be mostly across srn nj and delmarva. As for the low temperatures, we used mostly a blend of MOS and continuity. The hourly grids were adjusted with the latest obs, then the LAMP/LAV guidance was blended in through this evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... The upper air pattern is an amplifying one with a negatively- tilted trough across the Plains. This drives downstream ridging, which moves across much of the East during the course of Tuesday. This ridge aloft allows surface high pressure to strengthen from New England to the Canadian Maritimes, however it extends down into the northern Mid Atlantic region. This will result in a northeasterly low-level flow, which is initially moist however then some drying is expected to work in. As this surge occurs in the morning, some lower clouds are anticipated. This should lift and thin though especially across the northern areas as some additional subsidence occurs and some drying tries to work in from the north-northeast. As a result, we carried a lot of clouds for much of the area to start, then indicated some improvement. While some drizzle/sprinkles early may occur, the duration may be rather short regarding the low-level moist layer. As a result, we just carried slight chance POPs for a few possible showers mainly south and east of Philadelphia in the morning. As for the high temperatures, took a MOS blend but then adjusted these down a little especially for the eastern areas given an onshore flow. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure centered over New England-Canadian Maritimes will ridge south-southwestward down the eastern seaboard through the remainder of the work week. Meanwhile, the upper pattern will feature shortwave ridging over the eastern U.S. However, a trailing piece of energy positioned near the base of the mid-level trough axis that was/is associated with the previous cutoff low may still lag back to the southwest near the Delmarva coastline early in the period. Therefore, cannot rule out a few light showers and sprinkles Tuesday night or Wednesday near the coast; otherwise the second half of the work week should be dry. A northeast wind around the high will be maintained through much of the week across the region. Despite the persistent onshore flow, model forecast soundings show the column drying out owing to strong subsidence underneath the ridge. In this setup, we may see low clouds develop/advect inland each night and subsequently mix out/erode during each morning. Assuming we see mostly sunny skies during peak heating, max temperatures each afternoon should be near normal. This equates to highs predominately in the low/mid 70s except 60s across the higher terrain of northeastern PA/northwestern NJ and near the coast Wednesday-Friday. Then our attention turns to Hurricane Matthew for the weekend. The upper ridge progresses downstream of the forecast area and into the western Atlantic Ocean this weekend. Meanwhile, an upstream trough moves eastward through the Great Lakes/Midwest regions on Saturday and then the Northeast on Sunday. Initially, the tropical cyclone (TC) is expected to be steered northward around the western periphery of the ridge somewhere near the Southeast coast or potentially farther offshore. The track of Matthew then becomes even more uncertain as additional constituents from the mid latitudes come into play. The timing of and degree of interaction between the TC and the upstream mid latitude trough will influence the track of Matthew, specifically whether it will be pulled northward up the East coast or re-curve out to sea. Even if Matthew tracks well offshore to spare the northern mid-Atlantic region from direct impacts of strong winds and significant storm surge, there is a scenario on the table where the forecast area would be under a threat for heavy rainfall if the TC phases with the mid latitude trough that acquires a negative tilt. In this case, the pattern increasingly resembles composite studies for left- of-track Predecessor Rainfall Events (PREs). The past few runs of the GFS depict this wetter scenario. Conversely, there is another camp of models that depict limited phasing between both aforementioned systems. In the latter scenario, the TC would eventually be steered out to sea either Sunday or Monday, resulting in a mainly dry weekend except maybe for some light showers with the passage of a cold front. For now have gone with a blend of the guidance and the previous official forecast. PoPs trended higher for the weekend, but are still in chance range. Given the high uncertainty, please continue to monitor the National Hurricane Center for the latest forecast track information on Hurricane Matthew. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Tonight...VFR for awhile, however a surge in onshore flow and low- level moisture should result in a developing MVFR to perhaps IFR ceiling at many terminals mainly toward daybreak. This could also produce a shower or some drizzle. Light and variable winds, becoming northeast 5-10 knots late. Our confidence regarding the timing and extent of the low clouds is a bit below average. There could even be a little fog prior to the arrival of the NE surge. Some fog was added to the srn nj terminals. Tuesday...MVFR (perhaps IFR) conditions at many terminals due to low clouds and perhaps some drizzle in the morning, then conditions should improve to VFR toward Midday. Northeasterly winds around 10 knots, with some possible gustiness especially at ACY and MIV. OUTLOOK... Tuesday night through Friday night...Potential for sub-VFR with low clouds and fog (albeit less likely) to develop each night before mixing out and improving to VFR during the daytime. Persistent NE or E winds thru the period. Saturday...Forecast for this weekend is still uncertain and depends on the track of Hurricane Matthew. If the tropical system interacts with an upstream trough, then rain and flight restrictions may impact the terminals. If Matthew tracks close enough to the coast, then the threat of gusty winds (especially along the coast) and heavy rain would increase. && .MARINE... A weakening upper-level trough swings across the area tonight, then shifts to our east Tuesday. High pressure builds across New England then extends down into our area during Tuesday. This will allow for a tightening pressure gradient and a northeasterly surge. As this occurs, forecast soundings indicate the potential for gusts to 25 knots during Tuesday and this will also build the seas. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued starting at 12z Tuesday across the northern two coastal water zones, then 16z for the remaining zones. We held off including Delaware Bay as it may remain just below 25 knots, except for a portion of Lower Delaware Bay. Given lower confidence, held off including these zones for now. OUTLOOK... Tuesday night through Friday....SCA is in effect for the coastal waters Tuesday night with gusty NE winds and building seas. Even though winds may decrease on Wednesday, SCA conditions will likely continue through the rest of the week with seas remaining about 5 ft in persistent NEly flow. Friday night and Saturday...Long-period swells associated with Hurricane Matthew may reach the shore. Seas will build as well. There is still high uncertainty regarding how strong the winds and how high the waves get, which will ultimately depend on how close Matthew tracks to the northern mid-Atlantic coast. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ452>455. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450-451. && $$ Synopsis...Klein Near Term...Gorse/O'Hara Short Term...Gorse Long Term...Klein Aviation...Gorse/Klein/O'Hara Marine...Gorse/Klein  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KALY 032349 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 749 PM EDT MON OCT 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Some additional rain showers are possible into tonight as an upper level low departs the region. Behind the departing storm system, skies will clear out with comfortable temperatures on Tuesday. High pressure will allow for dry weather through Friday, with temperatures moderating above normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 730 PM EDT...H2O vapor loop reveals the upper low slowly track east-southeast across southern New England. A few showers remain but an overall diminishing trend is expected overnight with the loss of the daytime heating. Latest HRRR still suggests with a broad easterly flow around the periphery of the surface high across Maine that lingering showers/sprinkles may impact our western New England counties as we will retain the slight chance to chance PoPs across these areas. Otherwise, per the enhance IR Satellite imagery, several breaks in the overcast have been observed but expectations are for additional low clouds/stratus and patchy fog to evolve overnight. Overnight lows will generally be in the 50s thanks to all the clouds around. Some upper 40s are possible across the high terrain. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Dry weather is expected through the entire short term period. The upper level low that has been impacting the region will continue to move eastward out to sea. At the same time, strong ridging over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will translate eastward into the Northeast behind the departing upper level low. On Tuesday, surface high pressure will be situated over New England. This should allow clouds to break for some sun, although it may take until the afternoon hours for this to occur across the high terrain of western New England and the Taconics. With 850 hpa temps around 7-8 degrees C, high temps look to be in the 60s for much of the region. With mainly clear skies and light winds, temps should fall into the 40s for Tuesday night. Some fog/mist will likely occur in the typical areas, such as valleys and near bodies of water. With high pressure directly over the area and warming temps aloft, even warmer weather is expected for Wednesday into Thursday. There should be plenty of sunshine each day thanks to the strong subsidence in place. Max temps look to reach the upper 60s to near 70 on Wednesday for valley areas and into the low to mid 70s on Thursday. It will continue to be seasonably cool with the good radiational cooling for Wed night with lows in the 40s, but it should remain warm enough to prevent any frost in the region. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Considerable uncertainty remains in the forecast as we continue to watch the progress of 'Matthew'. Please refer to the latest outlooks and statements from the National Hurricane Center. Through the long term, general model consensus is to build the ridge along the mid-Atlantic and northeast corridors through the end of this week. Meanwhile, a digging and somewhat progressive trough moves through the Plains States, however, amplitude remains in question (the ECMWF is rather flat and progressive with the GFS/GGEM more amplified and a little slower). We will follow the blended consensus with a dry and unseasonable mild afternoon temperatures through at least Saturday morning with seasonable overnight low temperatures with good nocturnal cooling. We will increase clouds and PoPs later Saturday into Saturday night. Depending on the track of 'Matthew', a period of rain is possible Saturday night into Sunday morning. Conditions should improve through Sunday as the aforementioned trough upstream tracks through the region and what is left of 'Matthew' tracks off to our east or northeast. A shot of cold advection is expected through Sunday into Sunday night where some lake effect clouds/showers and maybe even some wet snow across the higher terrain as H850 temperatures drop toward or just below 0C. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... While winds will generally be 5 knots or less from the northeast or east direction, the main challenge tonight will be VIS and CIGS. While conditions early this evening should remain VFR, there is a wide range of CIGS from SKC into the mid-Hudson Valley to BKN-OVC elsewhere. Trends are for more clouds to evolve as well as low stratus/br/fg where more breaks occur. This will be reflected in the TAFs with IFR probabilities increasing toward midnight. VIS and CIG should improve within a couple of hours of sunrise Tuesday for VFR conditions to prevail under a SCT-BKN clouds. Outlook... Tuesday Night-Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Some rain showers are possible this evening into tonight as an upper level low departs the region. RH values will be near 100 percent tonight with dew formation and some fog in spots as well. Winds will be very light and variable. Some breaks of sun are expected on Tuesday, but RH values will generally remain above 60 percent through the day. East to southeast winds will be around 5-10 mph. Dry weather is expected for Tuesday through Friday. && .HYDROLOGY... The latest US Drought Monitor continues to show drought conditions across much of the region. Precipitation departures this calendar year have been 3 to 12 inches below normal, with the greatest departures across southeastern parts of the HSA. As a result, streamflow and ground water levels have been running below normal. As an upper level low departs the region, some additional rain showers are possible this evening into tonight. While many locations will stay dry, areas that see rainfall are only expected to pick up to an additional quarter of an inch. This rainfall will have little to no impact on area rivers and streams. With high pressure returning to the region, dry weather is expected tomorrow through Friday. This will allow rivers and streams to hold steady through much of the week. The next system to watch will be Hurricane Matthew, which is currently in the Caribbean Sea. It is still too early to say if this storm will have any impact on the HSA. If there was to be any impact, it would be over the weekend. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis/BGM SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...IAA/BGM FIRE WEATHER...Frugis HYDROLOGY...Frugis www.weather.gov/albany  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KREV 022155 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 255 PM PDT Sun Oct 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold trough moves into the West Coast today bringing gusty winds and temperatures well below seasonal averages along with the threat for lower valley freezes through mid-week. Valley rain and mountain snow showers are expected tonight and Monday night, with light snow accumulations possible over the Sierra passes this evening. Temperatures will warm back to near average by Friday. && .SHORT TERM... The main forecast concerns today are winds and humidities through this evening (mainly along/south of I-80), possible slick conditions over northern Sierra passes this evening, and sub-freezing temperatures for the lower valleys of western Nevada in the next few nights. Low pressure is dropping into northern California this afternoon and a wind shift has moved into western Nevada. However, little change in temperature or moisture has accompanied the shift so believe the main surface front to be with a band of precipitation (and solid wind shift/temperature change) nearing the northern Sierra early this afternoon. Some light rain has moved into Lassen and Plumas Counties this afternoon with a wet road indicated by web cams over Fredonyer Summit. Wind-wise, gusts between 25 and 35 mph (locally 40-45 mph) are widespread for eastern California and far western Nevada this afternoon. These winds should continue well into evening. However, humidities should begin to recover (and already have north of Tahoe in CA) as colder air filters into the region. For more, see the fire weather discussion below. Precipitation-wise, the initial frontal band of precipitation should go through quickly. Because precipitation is moving into the northern Sierra in the daytime, roads should remain mostly wet even over the crest (where snow will fall) due to well above freezing road surfaces. The main concern is between about sunset and 11 PM in the northern Sierra (down to about Ebbetts Pass) when widespread snow showers are expected under the upper low. The HRRR model continues to show locally heavy convective showers. However, it is hard to predict where narrow heavier bands will form and threaten slushy accumulations over Tahoe/Alpine County passes. Motorists should be prepared for slow travel over I-80, US 50, and for Mt Rose highway if they must wait until after dark to travel. Showers should taper off rapidly by midnight in the northern Sierra as the upper trough axis passes to the east. Any slushy conditions in the northern Sierra should abate quickly once showers taper off. Outside of the northern Sierra, only a brief shot at some light showers is expected tonight mainly just ahead of the trough axis. Turning to freezing temperature concerns, the latest HRRR is casting doubt that winds will calm down sufficiently or skies will remain clear long enough for a widespread freeze (locally defined as 30 degrees or less) in western Nevada tonight. Still, with the colder air filtering in valley temperatures should fall into the 30s to around 40 even if they remain mixed so it won't take much for a dip to 30 degrees or so for a couple hours. Therefore, the freeze warning for suburban and outlying valleys of far western NV will remain up for late tonight and Monday morning. Monday, a period of warm air advection/isentropic ascent is expected Monday afternoon and evening. This will bring the threat for some light showers, with snow levels rising generally above 7000 feet by late in the day. No road impacts are expected as the showers should be fairly light and the time of day is not ideal for road accumulations. Another brush-by system could bring a few more showers north of I-80 Tuesday. However, the main focus will be late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning temperatures for the lower valleys of northeast California and western Nevada. Tuesday morning looks a bit mixed up with a moist low level atmosphere so widespread freezing temperatures are not expected. Wednesday, and especially Thursday morning is a different story as drier air begins to filter into the area with slackening winds. At this time, it looks like Wednesday and/or Thursday morning will finally bring widespread below freezing temperatures to many areas of western Nevada. Snyder .LONG TERM...Thursday through Sunday... The long-term forecast calls for dry conditions Thursday through Sunday with the storm track north of the Oregon border. Model simulations do show weak impulses crossing the Sierra and western NV from west to east which could create periods of mid-to-high level cloudiness, mainly north of highway 50. There is a chance one of these impulses could bring a period of showers north of Susanville, but overall moisture looks to be quite limited so we maintained the chances for precipitation less than 15%. Some model simulations advertise a Pacific trough approaching the west coast Sunday which could bring an increase in moisture to the Sierra by Sunday night (a week from tonight), but this is a minority opinion. A slow warming trend of afternoon highs is forecast Thursday through Saturday or Sunday, although cloud thickness is a variable that could possibly temper that trend. Highs for Saturday and Sunday could warm into the mid to upper 70s in western NV and upper 60s to low 70s for Sierra communities. JCM && .AVIATION... A cold front passage is creating gusty west winds through this evening with peak gusts 30-40 kts from the lee of the Sierra out into western Nevada and far northeast California. Expect Sierra ridges to see gusts up to 60 kts through this evening along with moderate turbulence near and in the lee of the Sierra. A mix of rain and snow this evening could bring an inch or so of slushy accumulation to KTRK and KTVL. Cigs/vsbys into the MVFR/IFR range in the northern Sierra and northeast California are also expected through this evening. To the east and south rain and snow showers will be more scattered in nature but with IFR conditions possible near the Sierra crest in Mono county. VFR conditions are likely in western Nevada...but with some mountain obscurations. Snow in the Sierra will taper off to showers by midnight. Showers could linger into Monday as well and possibly Monday night north of I-80. Ceilings should improve Monday and winds will be lighter. Light precipitation is possible north of I-80 Tuesday and Wednesday...but conditions should be no worse than MVFR. 11/20 && .FIRE WEATHER... Gusty winds will continue into the early evening hours, as a cold front pushes through the region. Red Flag Warning remains in place for Mono-Alpine-Southern Lyon and Mineral Counties through 6PM. Moisture is increasing to the north of Reno-Tahoe, with precipitation and clouds already moving into the Truckee-Tahoe area. Wind gusts of 35-45 mph have been observed so far this afternoon for all areas, but the strongest winds have been mainly south of Carson City and down to Mammoth Lakes. Drier conditions exist south of Carson City with humidity in the low teens and even down to near 5% as you get near Mammoth Lakes/Benton/Bishop. Areas of critical conditions have also expanded slightly further north to near Minden/Gardnerville where firefighters are responding to a new wildfire near Dresslerville and Highway 395. Low pressure moving into northern CA/NV today will bring moisture and showers into the Northern Sierra and Lake Tahoe Basin through this evening. Snow levels will drop to around 5500-6000 feet this evening, bringing light snow accumulations of up to a few inches to the Northern Sierra above 7000 feet (mainly north of Ebbetts Pass all the way north to Lassen Park and the Warner Mountains. Breezy northwest flow will continue over the next couple days with temperatures slowly warming each day. Lighter winds are expected by Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure builds back over the region. Hoon && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM PDT Monday NVZ003. Red Flag Warning until 6 PM PDT this evening NVZ459. Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lake Tahoe in NVZ002. Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Pyramid Lake in NVZ004. CA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM PDT Monday CAZ071. Red Flag Warning until 6 PM PDT this evening CAZ273. Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lake Tahoe in CAZ072. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/reno  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 132112 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 112 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016 .DISCUSSION... Models...Run to run continuity remains good. Some adjustment on the movement of the upper level low as it fills and moves east a little faster across the state. Still some divergence in the extended periods, especially over the arctic, but blending the models will leave a trough over the area. Timing of the shortwaves moving around trough will be questionable, but the general weather pattern will not be affected over most of the area. Leaning toward the NAM precipitation solution again today since it has had a better handle on the system over the last few periods. Aloft...At 500 hpa...Primary low that was over Norton Sound yesterday has moved east over Beaver at 538 dam and will continue east over the Canadian yukon and dissipate tonight. An east to west trough over the arctic will move south over the northwest coast tonight and push south to lie from Deadhorse to Wales by late Wednesday. Ridging will build over the southeast mainland...mainly south and east of the Yukon River, then breaks down and retreats southeast as a longwave trough associated with a 537 dam low over the arctic develops over the west coast. The longwave trough will move slowly east across the state through the weekend. At 850 hpa...Zero isotherm lies from Old Crow Yukon to Fairbanks to Sleetmute to St Lawrence Island today. To the east it will start slowly moving back to the north and will lie from Old Crow to Ruby to Mekoryok by Thursday morning, and Old Crow to Huslia to Marshall and south by Saturday morning. Surface...Trough and stationary front will persist east to west across the interior to the west coast, but weaken as ridging pushes north over the Tanana Valley. Weak lows are still developing along the front and will spread occasional showers to most of the interior. Cloudy conditions will persist through the week, but a few breaks will occur. The next system, a 978 mb low near Shemya will move to Adak by Wednesday morning and Dutch harbor by Thursday morning with the associated weather front spreading more showers to the forecast area from the brooks range south. Showery conditions will persist through the weekend. As the system advances toward the area the pressure gradient will increase and gap winds through the Alaska range will gust into the 40 mph range. A low pressure system in the high arctic has the potential to bring the first significant snow to the arctic coast starting Friday. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Same issue today with the SPORT NPP VIIRS 24 hour Microphysics product at 13/1715Z as the high clouds obscure lower clouds. The GOES probability product at 13/1830Z is indicating MVFR conditions over most of the arctic with some higher clouds just offshore and more MVFR conditions well offshore with the a trough progressing toward the coast. Observation confirm it is mainly low cloud coverage. Heavy Snow Warning remains in effect through Wednesday morning, it looks like Toolik Lake and Anaktuvuk Pass have had about 2 inches of snow so far. Temperatures will remain on the cool side with the freezing level at or near the surface over most of the area. The next significant system which will approach the coast on Friday could bring the first significant snow to the arctic coastal areas Friday night and Saturday. temperatures will continue to slowly fall. As the low settles in near Huslia expect heavier precipitation with the upslope component and a good southerly feed of moisture into the area. East winds over most of the area as the low settles in and weak ridging continues to build east over the offshore waters. West Coast and Western Interior...Showers tapering off in the interior with some clearing and breaks developing overnight. GOES IR loop indicates quite a bit of stratus over the west coast so the weak ridging over the eastern Bering Sea is pretty dirty. The GOES MVFR/IFR probability product at 13/1830Z indicating high probability of MVFR conditions over most of the area without any significant open areas. Winds will swing around from northerly to easterly as the next system moves to Bristol Bay by tomorrow and spreads rain to the lower Yukon Delta by Late Wednesday evening. Rain will continue to spread north and east as the front progresses north. The Kotzebue sound region will be spared for the most part from the precipitation as a weak ridge develops over the area between systems. Relatively strong winds will persist over the Chukchi Sea and through the Bering Strait as ridging persists over the Chukotsk Peninsula. Cooler temperatures will prevail and some of the rain may mix with snow during the overnight hours starting Thursday. Central and Eastern Interior...Showers will taper off through the night as the system weakens a bit and the primary low along the front moves to the east and dissipates over the Yukon Territory. Very good potential for dense fog and low stratus ceilings tonight and Wednesday morning are likely north and west of Delta Junction. Winds generally light from the southwest will swing around to east and northeast for Wednesday. Some stronger south winds through the Alaska Range on Wednesday night as the next system moves north into the interior and gap winds kick up and gust to around 45 mph. Highs across the interior will be in the lower 40s with lows in the 30s to the south of the Yukon River and 20s to the north. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .Hydrology...Some rises of around a foot in the rivers draining out of the Brooks range, but they remain well below flood levels. Expect them to continue to rise as the rains of the last couple days make their way into the mainstem rivers. Rivers draining out of the Alaska range have also seen some rises but do not foresee any issues there. Not expecting any significant jumps in the river levels the remainder of the week. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning FOR AKZ205-AKZ206. Winter Weather Advisory FOR AKZ217-AKZ218. Small Craft Advisory FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225. Gale Warning FOR PKZ210. && $$ sdb Sep 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMTR 021645 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 945 AM PDT FRI SEP 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A slight cooling trend is forecast for the upcoming weekend with the possibility of overnight and morning coastal drizzle. Temperatures will trend warmer for next week with ongoing dry weather conditions. && .DISCUSSION...as of 09:45 AM PDT Friday... Water vapor imagery shows a distinct upper level trough centered over the Pacific Northwest and pushing into northern California this morning. Mixing associated with this advancing feature has entrained drier air into the marine layer and weakened its presence north of the Monterey Bay region. Breezy northwest winds have advected lingering marine stratus into the Monterey Bay which, due to the windfield, has wrapped around the the southern/eastern lip of the Bay in a counterclockwise trajectory. GOES cloud thickness product indicates a 2500 foot marine stratus deck thickness directly over Moss Landing. Otherwise, most other communities are experiencing mostly sunny to clear skies this morning as the upper trough shifts closer to home. The aforementioned 558DM upper low is being accompanied by an advancing air mass boundary and a 1.00" precipitable water plume. A band of high level clouds have developed along these features and will move southward across the region through the day. Forecast models are generally shying away from generating precipitation from this feature. The NAM, which is generally far too optimistic when it comes to precipitation here, is indicating that some light rain may be possible along the coast. Odds favor that only a trace to a few hundredths of drizzle along the coast should be even been considered. Additionally, breezy northwest winds should accompany the low as it shifts across the state through the weekend. The slow moving trough will exit the region early next week and be replaced by gradually building high pressure from the eastern Pacific. This will lead to a general warming and drying trend, but that said, temperatures will generally remain below normal for all of next week. Only a few locations located deep inland will see temperatures rise to a few degrees above normal. Of interest later next week... the EURO model shows a tropical system moving north along the Baja California coastline before entering into southern California by late Thursday/early Friday. The EURO shows this tropical system rapidly disorganizing as it moves inland, but allows the remnant tropical energy/moisture to linger there through next weekend. Meanwhile, the GFS kicks the feature west into the Pacific. This feature could play a key role in the weather for our southern counties next weekend and should be watched closely. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...as of 03:32 AM PDT Friday...Drier air mixing into the boundary layer has resulted in a less defined marine layer over the region this morning. As a result, only seeing patchy low clouds around portions of the Monterey Bay Region, down into the Salinas Valley and around portions of the North Bay. Along with this, temperatures are generally in the 50s to lower 60s region- wide. With this pattern over the region, should see earlier clearing of low clouds that do develop through sunrise. Thus, mostly sunny conditions are forecast for inland areas this afternoon and early evening. Meanwhile, temperatures this afternoon are forecast to be similar to those yesterday. A slight cooling trend is then forecast for the upcoming weekend as a short-wave trough drops southward down the West Coast. As this feature approaches, expect a slight deepening of the marine layer that will likely result in patchy coastal drizzle during the late night and early morning hours through the weekend. In addition, northwesterly winds are forecast to increase and become breezy at times from Friday into Saturday evening. The forecast models generally agree on shifting the broad mid/upper level trough inland as high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific early next week. This will bring a slight warming trend back to the region with temperatures rebounding back to near seasonal averages. The presence of a marine layer will likely bring minor day to day changes in coverage of overnight and morning low clouds. Otherwise, expect dry weather conditions and temperatures typical for early September through the extended forecast period. && .AVIATION...as of 5:05 AM PDT Friday....Thanks to a northerly gradient currently greater than 5 MB (with a westerly piece under 2 MB) and a marine layer just over 1,000 feet clouds have been limited for most of the SF Bay Area. Generally expect VFR conditions in most spots north of Monterey Bay outside of KOAK where clouds in the eastern part of SF Bay will bring CIGs down to MVFR at times. Moderate to high confidence. Vicinity of KSFO..VFR through the day with sea breeze westerly winds after 21Z. Gusts could be over 25 KT by that time. MVFR CIGs forecast to return tonight. Moderate to high confidence. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO. Monterey Bay Terminals..IFR cigs until around 18Z. Patchy drizzle possible early Friday morning. VFR expected remainder of the day. && .MARINE...as of 09:21 AM PDT Friday...Look for moderate northwesterly winds to continue through the weekend. The strongest winds are expected along the Sonoma coast north of Point Reyes as well as around Point Sur on the Big Sur coast. The primary swell will remain northwesterly and generally be 4 feet at 8 seconds. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tday...SCA...Mry Bay from 2 PM SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 2 PM SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP AVIATION: Bell MARINE: BAM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook and twitter at: www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KHGX 291505 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1005 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016 .UPDATE... Made tweaks to PoPs to better reflect radar trends, as well as bringing temperatures this morning better into line with the observations. Short range guidance suggests yet again today that highs should be cooler, but in the past couple days reality has ignored that and gone right on to meet the inherited forecast temperatures. So yet again will ignore that guidance and keep the forecast highs, and am comfortable that should work out well. As far as the flash flood watch is concerned, convective activity does appear to be holding well together much inland, and now even heavier rain appears to be having a tougher time holding on the coast. So, will pull the flash flood watch a bit earlier. Some locally heavier rain will still be possible, but probably not enough to justify the watch. The FLS in Brazoria County will stay, as MRMS CREST unit streamflow values are still elevated in the advisory area, and is near/slightly overlapping yesterday's flash flood warning area. && .MARINE... Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms over the Gulf this morning with tighter gradient/outflow near Galveston Bay so will be extending the SCEC for the Galveston Bay and eastern nearshore waters. Seas of 2-4 feet will continue through tonight and with the already elevated tide levels will likely see some nuisance flooding/overwash on highway 87 near High Island during high tide this afternoon. Winds relax noticeably Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. 45 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016/ AVIATION... A bit of high pressure ridging inland has helped keep the majority of the rainfall along the coast. However, over the past hour showers have begun to develop south and west of Houston. Latest high resolution models show the potential for showers this morning. Best thunderstorm chances will be during the afternoon as the temperatures reach the convective potential. Best thunderstorm coverage will be from KHOU and KSGR south to the coast. 40 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016/ DISCUSSION... Parts of the coast received between 3 and 9 inches of rain yesterday and another 1 to 3 inches early this morning. With a moisture axis extending east-west off of Galveston poised to enter SE TX, feel there is no choice but to issue a Flash Flood Watch for the coastal counties through the morning. Short term guidance which has performed rather poorly (so confidence not terribly high) is very bullish with rain this morning and the NMM, ARW and RAP producing another 2 to 4 inches along the coast. Precipitation should expand inland with daytime heating. Convective temps are between 85 and 87 degrees so coverage should increase inland during the aftn. Clouds and precip should keep max temps in the upper 80s. The precip is courtesy of a weak upper level low over the western Gulf. This feature will weaken further as it drifts SW. Pw values drop on Tuesday to around 2.00 inches from today's values of 2.20-2.30 inches. Convective temps on Tuesday also warm to around 89 degrees. Fcst soundings don't show much of a cap but forecast profiles look considerably drier with deeper moisture confined over the SW zones. Will begin to dry things out on Tuesday and taper PoPs from the highest over the SW and lower to the NE. An upper level ridge will develop Tuesday night over the central plains and expand southward through Thursday. Drier and warmer conditions are expected both Wed and Thursday. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are showing what looks like a backdoor front slicing through the area from the NE on Friday afternoon. Will carry chance PoPS with the boundary serving as a focus and PW values peaking to 2.15 inches just ahead of the front. A weak upper level disturbance will approach SE TX from the east next weekend and could bring another chance of rain to SE TX by next Sunday. Temperatures look to be near seasonal normals next weekend. 43 MARINE... The combination of an area of showers and thunderstorms along with a fairly tight pressure gradient has led to caution conditions over Galveston Bay and the nearshore waters east of Freeport early this morning. Expect the winds to slowly diminish through the morning. However, thunderstorms will persist this afternoon and tonight due to an upper level system overhead and a surface trough along the coast. Moderate easterly winds will also help to drive tides to about a foot to 1.5 feet above normal. Some locations along the Gulf side of the coast may experience actual tides of around 3 feet today during times of high tide. The thunderstorm coverage is expected to decrease Tuesday through the end of the week. Swells from tropical depression 9 as it moves into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico should arrive into the Upper Texas coast during the mid week period - as of now actual forecasted seas on Tuesday and Wednesday are between 3 and 4 feet. 40 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 89 74 92 75 93 / 50 20 30 10 20 Houston (IAH) 88 75 91 76 94 / 50 20 40 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 86 79 88 80 90 / 70 50 40 10 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Flash Flood Watch until noon CDT today FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Brazoria...Chambers...Galveston...Matagorda. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 5 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay. && $$ Discussion...25 Aviation/Marine...45  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 151149 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 349 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016 .DISCUSSION... Models...No significant changes in the solutions in the short term. Showery regime will persist over the area with slightly higher probabilities west and north of Fairbanks again today. Large areas of negative Lifted Index between the Alaska and Brooks ranges during the afternoon today with some decrease in the coverage Tuesday. CAPE values remain unimpressive over most of the area, but they are slightly higher to the west and north of the tanana valley. Leaning a bit more toward the NAM solution for precipitation coverage this cycle but blend with the current database forecast to maintain continuity. Aloft...at 500 HPA...544 dam low weakens to 555 dam as it moves from just south of Kodiak Island to the northern Gulf of Alaska and dissipates over Prince William Sound tonight. A col has developed over the interior and will persist into Wednesday before ridging builds northwest over the area. A 505 dam low over the North Pole will remain stationary as it spins shortwaves east across the arctic. a 553 dam low will develop over the bering strait this morning and move south over the Pribilof Islands by Tuesday morning, then merge with a 545 dam low over the north Pacific. Ridging over the northwest Pacific will push north over the eastern interior Tuesday night and Wednesday with 573 dam heights as far west as Fairbanks. Surface...Trough persists over the state from Bristol Bay to Old Crow Yukon but has weakened a bit and will continue to through Tuesday. 1000 mb low has moved into the Gulf of Alaska and will continue to weaken before dissipating by Tuesday morning. The thermal trough will persist over the upper Yukon Valley. A 1009 mb High will develop over Prudhoe Bay as the surface ridge builds east across the arctic. A weather front will move to the northwest coast this morning then drag northeast into the arctic. Ridging over the Gulf of Alaska will push north over the southeast interior Tuesday night. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Fog remains the biggest forecast challenge as it moves in and out. Visibility improved greatly during the day Sunday and was unrestricted in most places for a few hours. Stratus has not changed much over the coastal areas though and see no reason for any significant change except to lift a little during the day. Inland areas will see some breaks in the clouds with warmer temperatures. GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR Probability Product at 15/1030Z indicating large areas of IFR conditions, not a lot of LIFR that has shown up the past few days. Winds in the short term continue to generally be easterly at 10 to 20 mph along the coast with lighter winds inland. Winds will be mainly northwest at 5 to 15 mph. Temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s along the coast. West Coast and Western Interior...A few thunderstorms, mainly south and east of Galena again today. Winds northwest to north over the coastal areas at 10 to 30 mph with lighter variable winds inland. Strongest winds will be near the Bering Strait. Slightly cooler with northerly flow. Central and Eastern Interior...Another warm day. Highs in many areas reaching the mid 70s. Muggy conditions continue as dewpoints remain high. Some isolated thunderstorms and showers, but mainly north of the Tanana valley. Winds generally light and variable, except near the Alaska range south winds gusting to 20 to 40 mph this morning and tapering down this afternoon. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .Fire Weather...Isolated thunderstorm activity today, with no areas of significant lightning activity expected. Winds generally light and variable except near the Alaska range passes. Relative humidity values remaining above 30 percent during the day with excellent overnight recoveries. && .HYDROLOGY...Rivers continue to slowly fall and that trend will continue through the week. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220. && $$ SDB AUG 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 141101 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 301 AM AKDT SUN AUG 14 2016 .DISCUSSION... Models...Remain in very good agreement in the short term and good agreement into the midrange. Run to run continuity continues to be very good. Showery regime persists over the area with slightly higher probabilities west and north of Fairbanks today. There continue to be large areas of negative Lifted Index between the Alaska and Brooks ranges during the afternoons through Monday. CAPE values remain unimpressive over most of the area, but there are a couple areas in zone 224 and along the border between zone 216 and zone 227 today with values near 400 J/kg. Will lean a bit more toward the NAM for precipitation coverage this cycle but blend with the current database forecast to maintain continuity. Aloft...at 500 HPA...541 dam low just south of Kodiak Island will move northeast into the northern Gulf of Alaska by Monday morning as it weakens to 551 dam. A weak ridge lies over the Brooks Range. The shortwave mentioned yesterday has moved over the western Arctic and Chukchi Sea this morning and a 550 dam low will develop in the base of the trough over the Bering Strait by Monday morning and move south. The trough will move northeast across the Arctic moving over Barrow Monday afternoon and over Canadian waters by Tuesday morning. A col will develop over the interior Monday and persist into Wednesday before ridging builds northwest over the area. Weak southerly flow will continue over the southeast interior and Fortymile Country with 554 dam heights extending west over Fairbanks. Weak ridging over the Bering Strait continues to push 554 dam heights east to the middle Yukon valley with weak northerly flow over the coast. Surface...Trough lies from Bristol Bay to Old Crow Yukon across the state and expect that to continue through most of the next week. Weak high pressure will persist over the Arctic nearshore and offshore waters with a 1016 mb high developing over Barrow by Tuesday afternoon. A weak front will move east across the high Arctic today and tonight. A stronger weather front will move to the western Arctic and Chukchi Sea Monday morning and brush over the northwest coast Monday night as it drags east and north in zonal flow. Ridging over the Gulf of Alaska will push north into the interior Tuesday as the trough over the state weakens. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Fog continues to be the biggest forecast challenge as it moves in and out with visibility less than one mile in several locations along the coast at times during the day. Visibility improved greatly during the day Saturday and was unrestricted in most places for a few hours. Stratus has not changed much over the coastal areas through and see no reason for any significant change to that until at least Tuesday as the front drags near the area. No breaks in the low stratus ceilings unless your at least 10 miles inland then you can expect some breaks in the afternoon. GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR Probability Product at 14/0930Z indicating large areas of IFR conditions, and quite a bit of LIFR conditions east of Barrow along the coast with the highest concentration remaining around Prudhoe Bay. This is confirmed by the observations in the area. Winds in the short term continue to generally be easterly at 10 to 20 mph along the coast with lighter winds inland. Winds will turn to the northwest as the surface high pressure ridge builds east over the area tonight into Tuesday. Temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s along the coast, warmer inland with significant breaks in the clouds. West Coast and Western Interior...A few thunderstorms, mainly south of Galena yesterday, and today looks to be much more of the same with a good chance south of Kaltag. Some Isolated showers for the remainder of the area today. Winds northwest to north over the coastal areas at 10 to 30 mph with lighter variable winds inland. Strongest winds will be near the Bering Strait. A slight cooling trend as the northerly flow holds temperatures down a bit. Central and Eastern Interior...Another warm day, but not as warm as Saturday. High in many areas reaching the mid 70s. Muggy conditions continue as dewpoints remain high. The trough remains across the interior so isolated Thunderstorms and shower could pop up just about anywhere and anytime with highest potential in the afternoon hours. Thunderstorms may contain small hail and produce gusty winds. Winds generally light and variable, except near the Alaska range south winds at 5 to 15 mph. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .Fire Weather...More isolated thunderstorm activity today, with no areas of significant lightning activity expected. Winds generally light and variable. Relative humidity values remaining above 30 percent during the day with excellent overnight recoveries. && .HYDROLOGY...Expect only Isolated thunderstorm activity so no concentrated areas of rainfall in the interior. Rivers continue to slowly fall and that trend will continue through next week. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220. && $$ SDB AUG 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 131154 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 354 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016 .DISCUSSION... Models...Run to run continuity continues to be very good. very good agreement out to around 72 hours. Showery regime will remain over the area with slightly higher probabilities west of Fairbanks today. There continue to be large areas of negative Lifted Index between the Alaska and Brooks ranges during the afternoons through the weekend. Cape values remain unimpressive. Will use a blend of the current solutions to maintain continuity in the short term forecast. Aloft...at 500 HPA...543 dam low over the Pribilof Islands yesterday has moved over Cold Bay by Saturday morning at 540 dam this morning and will continue east to just south of Kodiak Island by Sunday morning at 541 dam. A weak ridge over the nearshore waters has shifted south over the brooks range as the 509 dam low over the north pole has shifted south a bit and a shortwave is swinging southeast around the low and will be over the dateline by Sunday morning, and over the Chukchi Sea early Monday. The long wave trough over the state will bring weak southerly flow over the eastern interior with 554 dam heights extending west over Fairbanks. Weak ridging over the Bering Strait will push 554 dam heights east to the middle Yukon valley with weak northerly flow over the coast. Surface...Troughy pattern will persist south of the Brooks range as the extratropical remnants of former Typhoon Omais move to just south of Kodiak Island by Sunday morning. Flow around the low will continue to enhanced moisture and usher warmer air into the area. This will continue to enhance potential for showers south of the Brooks range. Weak ridging will persist over the nearshore arctic waters through early next week as surface ridging builds east out of Chukotka across the area. A weather front will move to the western Arctic Sunday and approach the northwest coast Monday impacting the nearshore and offshore waters with some strong winds. Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Fog has returned to the coastal areas, mainly from Barrow east, and expect it will trend today much like it did yesterday occasionally reducing visibility to one half mile or less through the morning hours. Ten some improvement during the afternoon before it comes back late tonight. No breaks in the low stratus ceilings unless your at least 10 miles inland then you can expect some breaks in the afternoon. GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR Probability Product at 13/0900Z indicating large areas of IFR conditions, and quite a bit of LIFR conditions east of Barrow along the coast with the highest concentration around Prudhoe Bay. This is confirmed by the observations in the area. Winds in the short term continue to generally be easterly at 10 to 20 mph along the coast with lighter winds inland. Temperatures will be in the 30s to 50s along the coast and warmer inland with significant breaks in the clouds. West Coast and Western Interior...A few thunderstorms around the area yesterday and today looks to be much more of the same. Not anticipating any significant increase in activity over yesterday as convective indices are very similar with the only difference being a slightly deeper trough over the area. Winds generally northwest to north over the coastal areas at 10 to 20 mph with lighter variable winds inland. Temperatures will continue on the warm side today with a slight cooling trend on the coast as the northerly flow holds temperatures down a bit. Central and Eastern Interior...Warm and muggy. With the trough being a bit deeper over the interior areas north of Fairbanks may see a few more showers and some Thunderstorm activity today. From Fairbanks south just isolated showers, but near the range things should remain dry with downslope winds continuing today. Gap winds not as strong as yesterday but they will persist. South winds near the range to 25 mph, with generally light winds north of the Tanana river. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .Fire Weather...Expect thunderstorm activity to remain low with a smattering of strikes across the forecast area. No area look more favorable at this time. Winds generally light except for the gap winds near the Alaska range to 25 mph. Relative humidity values will remain above 30 percent during the day with excellent overnight recovery. && .HYDROLOGY...No change as rivers continue to slowly fall, and with only isolated to scattered showers expected that trend will continue. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SDB AUG 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KPAH 102030 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 330 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2016 A low level convergence zone helped to enhance a band of tropical moisture today, which contributed to scattered shower and tstm activity east of the MS River. Isolated locations in the Evansville tri-state area experienced very heavy rain amounts. These heavy rain amounts could be a harbinger to what is to come in the next several days, if another convergence zone sets up. At this time, there is not a strong indication that this will occur through Friday, but this scenario will have to be watched. At a minimum, we will have high PWATs in place. Through Thursday night, convective activity will show a noticeably diurnal pattern as tropical moisture streams in from a mid level low in the Deep South. The effects of an approaching surface cold front will start to be felt late Friday/Friday night, as PoPs begin to ramp up from the northwest. However, the southern Pennyrile region may not receive any rain Friday night. Dewpoints in the middle to even upper 70s at times, combined with highs around 90, will yield heat indices of 100 to 105 for much of the PAH forecast area Thursday and Friday afternoons. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2016 Main issue this period is heavy rain. Tropical system, currently over the northern Gulf, is forecast to move up or just west of the Mississippi river starting Saturday. At the same time a weak upper level trough will gradually bring a front southward into the Midwest. The issue is with the details, which is not surprising this far out. GFS and GEFS suggest the front will be right along the Ohio River by 18Z Sunday. Things really get complicated after that as the GFS wants to develop a low along the front and move it northeast toward southern Missouri on Monday which would push the front northward. The GEFS is not as strong with the surface low and thus the front remains along the Ohio River. The location of the front will have big implications on where the heavy rain will fall. Little doubt on the heavy rain with the tropical influence, freezing levels close to 15kft and PWs well over 2 inches in most areas. The heavy rain is expected to be along and just north of the front. The current thinking is that the heaviest rainfall totals will be along the Ohio River. But this could easily change as we get closer to the event. Will issue an ESF. Will be confident in the heavy rain, but less so on the location. && .AVIATION... Issued at 330 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2016 As a band of moisture continues to surge westward through the region today, scattered showers and tstms will be most common east of the MS River, with brief vsby reductions to IFR probable until near sunset if one develops across a terminal. Meanwhile, cloud cover will be quite variable, but most widespread over the eastern two-thirds of the region during the daylight hours. Outside tstm activity, winds will remain light, and generally out of the southeast today, calm overnight, and generally out of the south Thursday morning. MVFR fog will be likely late in the night, with some terminals dipping into IFR, especially where pcpn recently occurred. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DB LONG TERM...PS AVIATION...DB  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KPAH 101802 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 102 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016 .UPDATE... Issued at 102 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016 Updated aviation discussion only. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night) Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2016 Upper ridge will remain centered off the east coast, with weak energy aloft moving across the area, resulting in mainly diurnally enhanced convection given weak mid level support and lack of any surface features (weak return flow). Will have PoPs peak in the afternoon, then fade in the evening and overnight. It will be rather warm and humid with dew points up into the 70s again, with highs upper 80s to lower 90s. Used a model blend for the weather, slightly more weight to the ECMWF and NAM. MOS and persistence used for temps. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Aug 10 2016 GFS and ECMWF have slowed down the approaching cold front Friday night into Saturday, now bringing it into our northwest counties by around 00z Sunday. This is about 6 hours slower than previous runs. Canadian still shows the front bisecting the PAH forecast area by 18z Saturday. All the models hang up the front across our region into Sunday and early Monday, then show the front making some southeastern progress into Monday night and Tuesday. Leaning toward the slower GFS/ECMWF solutions, shower and thunderstorm chances will be spreading southeast Friday night, with good chance to likely pops for our west and northwest counties, to slight chances southeast. On Saturday, the focus for better thunderstorm chances will continue to be across our west and northwest counties, so went with likely pops in these areas, with good chances across the rest of our region. With the front across the region the rest of the weekend, went with good chance to likely pops across the entire PAH forecast area Saturday night and Sunday. For Sunday night into Monday, with some question as to where the front will be, kept probabilities in the chance category for now. With front sliding a little farther southeast Monday night and Tuesday, focused the better chances for showers and storms across our south/southeast counties. Overnight low temperatures will remain above seasonal normals Friday night and Saturday night, but high temperatures through the weekend will be a little below normal with additional cloud cover and precipitation. Winds shifting to the north late in the weekend will keep temperatures near to below normal into early next week with dew points hovering in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. && .AVIATION... Issued at 102 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2016 As a band of moisture surges westward into the region this afternoon, scattered showers and tstms will be most common east of the MS River, with brief vsby reductions to IFR probable during the afternoon. Meanwhile, cloud cover will be quite variable, but most widespread over the eastern two-thirds of the region today. Outside tstm activity, winds will remain light, and generally out of the southeast today, calm overnight, and generally out of the south Thursday morning. MVFR fog will be likely late in the night, with some terminals dipping into IFR. && .PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ AVIATION...DB  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK68 PAFC 011239 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 439 AM AKDT MON AUG 1 2016 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... The primary weather feature this morning is a vertically stacked low off the Southwest Alaska coast that is slowing shifting southeastward towards Bristol Bay. A stream of moisture is wrapping northward around the east side of the low, bringing steady precipitation to the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay area. Drier weather is in place over Southcentral with weak ridging aloft, however midlevel moisture spilling over the ridge is keeping some clouds over the area. Further west, a drier airmass from the north is advancing southward around the backside of the low over the Bering Sea. This is shown on morning satellite imagery as a pronounced dry slot wrapping into the low. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement synoptically with the track of the low as it moves into the Gulf of Alaska Tuesday. Recent runs of the higher resolution models have trended towards a slightly drier solution for interior Southcentral as the moisture from this low moves into the area in the short term. The indication of stronger northern Gulf coastal ridging supports more downsloping of the moisture west of the Chugach. This results in a trend towards slightly lighter precipitation over Anchorage and the western Kenai. The higher resolution models were used in the morning package to best capture these mesoscale features. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2..through Tue)... A low pressure center moving east across Bristol Bay into the Gulf and its associated frontal trough will bring increased chances of rain and locally windy conditions through Tuesday. Southeast cross-barrier flow will hold the lions share of rain along the coasts and southeast exposures today. The cross-barrier flow weakens overnight and Tuesday with the frontal zone which will allow rain to spread inland. Precipitation will taper off from the west Monday afternoon/evening clearing much of Cook inlet, Anchorage Bowl, and MATSU Valleys by evening. The upper low and associated waves moving across the gulf will increase the convective potential on Tuesday. This center will bring with it a -24C cold pool aloft. As this passes over the warm Gulf waters, it could be enough to produce a few thunderstorms. It also pushes a few impulses of energy up into the Copper River Basin where conditions have been very warm and moist. So we have introduced a slight chance of thunderstorms for both these areas. The low and associated front will also bring windy conditions. Southerly winds to small craft strength will be evident with and in advance of the frontal system across the gulf with a weak southeast barrier jet setting up along the North Gulf Coast late tonight and Tuesday. Pressure gradients associated with the aforementioned weather makers will also bring locally brisk and gusty gap flows to favored locals (Turnagain arm, Knik Valley, Copper River) today which should then diminish overnight. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... The low pressure system is located in the Kuskokwim Bay near 58N 165W with the associated weather front approaching the Bristol Bay coastline this morning. The satellite imagery is depicting a large swath of moisture streaming south to north into the Southwest Alaska region. The surface observations are showing temperatures in the lower to mid 50s with the radar imagery displaying widespread rain accompanied by fog. As this low drop farther south into the Bristol Bay the cooler pool aloft will aid in enhancing unstable condition by this afternoon. Therefore, look for isolated thunderstorms forming in the Bristol Bay area with southerly storm motion carrying them inland in the afternoon/evening time- frame. By Tuesday, as the system exits the region into the Gulf, the showery precipitation will taper-off as the upstream ridge builds into the Southwest Alaska region. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)... The eastern Bering has the upper level closed low tracking eastward before exiting the region by Tuesday morning. This morning the Scatterometer Wind imagery is showing small craft advisory northerly winds on the backside of this low pressure system located between Nunivak Island, and Saint Paul Island. While, upstream a high pressure ridge is over the central/western Bering/Aleutians region. There is a weak wave just southwest of Adak with the satellite imagery showing a plume of moisture streaming into the Adak region. The GOES IFR Probability satellite imagery is showing widespread stratus/fog over the Western Aleutians extending into the Central Aleutians. The Scatterometer Wind imagery is displaying southeasterly flow which is streaming moisture into the Bering. By Tuesday the ridge of high pressure moves farther eastward, and the Western Aleutians is influenced by a weak trough. Overall, the Bering and Aleutians will see the usual stratus/fog as we head into Tuesday. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)... The big story moving into the later part of the week is the broad troughing over the Bering that will form a consolidated low center over the northeastern Bering Thursday night. This setup will pull up moisture from the south and the southwest flow produced by the low will bring widespread rain to Southwest and Southcentral Alaska for the end of the week into the weekend. Guidance is coming more in line with this overall pattern which is increasing confidence but there still remains variations in how the upper low will move. If it tracks south into the Gulf instead of staying along the coast as some models are indicating then rain amounts will be more limited for inland locations. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. FIRE WEATHER...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RD SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD LONG TERM...DK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMTR 181748 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 1048 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Cooler than normal temperatures along with overnight clouds and patchy fog are expected to persist through Tuesday. A gradual warming trend is then forecast for the second half of the work week. Much warmer temperatures are possible by the upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION...as of 09:16 AM PDT Monday...Based on profiler data across the region, the marine layer remains around 2000 feet in depth this morning. This allowed for the typical inland intrusion of coastal clouds well into the valleys overnight. In addition, drizzle is being reported along the coast and into the East Bay as a result of the deep marine layer. Meanwhile, low clouds are burning-off over the South Bay and Santa Clara Valleys at this hour and will likely see this trend continue through the morning across inland areas. While clouds retreat to the coast, some locations near the coast may not break out from the cloud cover today or if so, only briefly. The ongoing forecast remains on track for today and no major changes are needed at this time. Overall, expecting similar weather conditions and temperatures to those on Sunday. && .PREV DISCUSSION...As of 3:00 AM PDT Monday...Little change is expected in our weather over the next couple of days as an upper trough remains in place along the West Coast. A deep marine layer and moderate onshore flow will continue to result in widespread night and morning low clouds, and temperatures will remain cooler than normal. An upper ridge centered over the nation's midsection is forecast to expand to the west during the second half of the week, which will result in a warming trend starting on Wednesday. The warming trend will start off slow with only a few degrees of warming expected through Thursday. The longer range models agree that the ridge will build much more strongly over California from Friday into the weekend and this is when the warming trend is expected to quickly ramp up. By midday Sunday the GFS forecasts a 597 dm 500 mb high centered over the Bay Area while the ECMWF forecasts a 599 dm high centered in the same location. If the ridge develops as forecast, we will see inland temperatures soar well into the 90s, and over 100 in the warmest locations, during the upcoming weekend. The bias-corrected high temperature forecast grids look to be about 10 degrees too cool during the Friday-Sunday time period and have therefore adjusted them upward for days 5-7. If the medium range models verify in the extended forecast period, Saturday and Sunday will probably be among the warmest days we've seen so far this summer, and almost certainly the warmest of July. && .AVIATION...As of 10:50 AM PDT Monday...For 18z tafs. Marine layer exhibiting typical clearing from all sides this morning... except over the San Francisco peninsula and East Bay. Advection of upstream air mass is contributing to a thicker layer of stratus directly over KSFO with KOAK on the fringe. Given current depth of the layer... the upstream marine air mass advection... and rate of mixing (per GOES cloud thickness product)... expect to see MVFR cigs linger through at least 19Z and as late as 20Z. Onshore winds then become breezy and occasionally gusty into the afternoon and early evening. MVFR cigs return this evening with IFR overnight. Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR into the 19Z hour. Sustained winds up to 20kt after 21Z with gusts to around 25 kt. MVFR returns by 04z TUE. IFR overnight. Confidence moderate. SFO Bridge Approach... Advection of marine stratus over SF peninsula will push into the South Bay... leading to similar albeit slightly improved conditions versus KSFO. Confidence moderate. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR cigs will linger through the 18Z hour. Upstream wind field does not currently appear favorable for cigs to linger into the early afternoon but a slight shift in the offshore winds may change this. Early return of low cigs by around 01-02Z TUE. Confidence moderate. && .MARINE...as of 09:16 AM PDT Monday...Northwest winds will be the strongest along the coast today...especially southward towards the Big Sur region. In addition look for gusty west winds this afternoon and evening across the northern San Francisco Bay as well as the outer waters of Monterey Bay. The gradient will gradually ease and expect generally light wind and seas from mid to late week as strong high pressure builds from the interior and keeps gradients light across the waters. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tday...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 1 PM SCA...SF Bay from 1 PM SCA...Mry Bay from 1 PM SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass AVIATION: DRP MARINE: DRP Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook and twitter at: www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KBOX 180122 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 922 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak stationary front draped over southern New England is expected to wash out overnight. A cold front will approach from the west during Monday. During Monday afternoon into Monday evening, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible well ahead of this cold front. A cold front sweeps through New England Monday night with scattered showers/thunderstorms. High pressure then builds fair weather over the region for Tuesday through Friday. Another cold front moves through on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... 920 PM update... Earlier storms have dissipated. Areas of low clouds/fog will be main concern overnight, especially near Cape Cod and Islands where coverage will be most widespread. Along E MA coast, experimental GOES IFR probability imagery shows most of the low cloud deck has shifted a bit farther offshore. It may try to head back toward coast, including Boston, for a time late this evening as winds turn more SE but it should head back out to sea overnight once winds become SW. Elsewhere, fog/low clouds will be more patchy in nature. Lows in 60s to around 70 look good. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... With the exception of some early morning fog/stratus that may linger into the morning along the Cape and Islands, the area is expected to start the day mostly sunny. Temperatures will warm quickly and this will lead to substantial diurnal instability. Surface-based Cape climbs to 1500-2000+ J/kg for the afternoon. A cold front will be moving through the eastern Great Lakes region and approaching our area during the day, but ahead of that is expected to be a pre-frontal trough. This pre-frontal trough is forecast to move through southern New England during Monday afternoon and evening, providing a trigger for showers and thunderstorms. There is a risk for severe thunderstorms during Monday afternoon and early evening. The main threats from a severe weather standpoint would be gusty to damaging winds and hail, looking at BUFKIT hodographs can not completely rule out an isolated tornado. In addition, models show precipitable water values peaking out around 2 inches. So any thunderstorm could produce locally heavy downpours, which could cause localized urban or poor drainage flooding. Have included enhanced wording in the forecast tomorrow, the threat for severe weather/locally heavy rain could last through early evening. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Big Picture... Upper jet flow shifts north into Canada during the week. Subtropical high over the Southern USA expands across much of the Northern USA with ridge axis over the Plains. Upper trough remains over the Pacific Northwest and another trough digs over eastern New England and the Maritimes. This brings a northwest flow over much of New England, although with higher/warmer than normal contour heights aloft. The GFS and ECMWF mass fields are similar. Their main difference is how they handle polar shortwaves moving across Canada late in the forecast period. This can lead to differences in depicting the surface weather systems over Canada and the cold fronts that they sweep across the Northern USA. Thermal fields are also similar. Moisture fields are a little different over the weekend but within reason. No clear favorite, so will go with a general blend. Details... Monday night-Tuesday... Cold front moves through the region Monday night. Diminishing CAPE during the night but Total-Totals of 48-51 and LI sub-zero should support showers/tstms until frontal passage. Precipitable water values 1.5 to 2 inches in the evening diminish overnight but should support a period of locally heavy downpours. Once the cold front moves through, high pressure builds in at the surface Tuesday bringing somewhat lower humidity. Mixed layer will reach to near 800 mb, with temps there supporting max sfc temps in the Low to Mid 80s. But lingering upper trough and lingering moisture below 850 mb should generate some diurnal clouds especially in Nrn Mass. Wednesday-Thursday... High pressure moves overhead Wednesday and shifts offshore Thursday. Fair skies and light wind, with sea breeze potential at the coasts Wednesday and developing Southwest flow Thursday. Temps aloft 11-13C Wednesday and 14-16C Thursday, supporting Lower 80s Wednesday and Mid to Upper 80s Thursday. Friday-Saturday... Northwest flow aloft with at least one approaching shortwave and associated surface cold front, possibly two. Precipitable water values build Friday night and peak near 2 inches overnight and early Saturday. CAPE builds late Friday mostly to our North and West but may be close enough to generate scattered showers/storms in parts of Northern MA late Friday and early Friday night. CAPE rebuilds Saturday ahead of surface cold front depicted by the models, but GFS shows only a weak shortwave that is mostly along or north of the Canadian border while the ECMWF shows nothing. We will continue to show a chance of showers/storms with the cold front. Temps aloft 18c on the ECMWF and 20C on the GFS Friday, 20-22C Saturday. This suggests sfc high temps in the 90s, with mid 90s on Saturday. Sunday... Low confidence Sunday forecast. Cold front moves off to the south and east with convective parameters showing stable air. Temps aloft remain at 19-20C suggesting another day of max temps in the 90s. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Overnight...Moderate confidence. Fog/low clouds have shifted off E MA coast per satellite imagery, but may try to head back toward coast for a time late this evening as winds turn more SE. Once winds turn SW overnight, the fog/low clouds should push offshore. This may be optimistic, as there is a low potential for the fog/low clouds lingering into the morning rush hour. Fog/low clouds will linger all night over Cape Cod and Islands. IFR/LIFR in this area overnight. Remaining areas should be VFR overnight. Monday... VFR ceilings aoa 040 expected Mon. Could see another round of scattered showers/storms later in day, especially from Berkshires to Connecticut River Valley. KBOS TAF...Low confidence. LIFR ceilings should move back onshore 03z-08z but not confident in how long they last. Trend should be for improvement to VFR overnight as winds turn SW. KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence. Outlook /Monday Night through Friday/... Monday night... Moderate confidence. Areas of MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms, some with locally heavy downpours and strong wind gusts. Cold front moves through during the night with winds shifting from out of the West. Tuesday through Thursday... Moderate-High Confidence. VFR. Areas of IFR in morning fog, especially on Tuesday. Northwest winds Tuesday become variable-onshore Wednesday, then Southwest Thursday. Friday... VFR. Areas of IFR in morning fog. Areas of MVFR/IFR in scattered late afternoon showers/thunderstorms, with main focus in northern Mass. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Monday/...Moderate confidence. Light winds and flat seas overnight. Areas of dense fog, mainly on south coastal waters, will bring near zero visibility in spots through sunrise. Issued Small Craft Advisory for nearshore waters Mon, including Boston Harbor and Narragansett Bay. Forecast soundings show deep mixing over land and within a mile or so of shore, with 25kt gusts likely during afternoon. Gusts subside toward sunset. Could see few showers or thunderstorms later in day, but greater chances are across interior southern New England. Outlook /Monday Night through Friday/... Moderate-High confidence. Monday night... Southwest winds gusting 20-23 knots Monday night, turning west overnight as a cold front moves through. Forecast guidance brought seas of 5-6 feet, but based on a sustained 20-25 knot wind. This would be a high estimate, so we lowered seas to around 4 feet. Tuesday through Friday... High pressure moves overhead Wednesday and offshore Thursday. Winds shift from Northwest Tuesday to variable-onshore Wednesday and Southwest Thursday-Friday. Winds and seas should remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds through the period. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ230>237-250-251. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB NEAR TERM...JWD SHORT TERM...NMB LONG TERM...WTB AVIATION...WTB/NMB/JWD MARINE...WTB/NMB  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMTR 171201 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 501 AM PDT SUN JUL 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS...The cooling trend that began on Friday will continue today and cooler than normal temperatures are expected to persist through Tuesday. A gradual warming trend is then forecast to begin around the middle of the week. && .DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 AM PDT Sunday...Early morning water vapor satellite imagery shows a longwave trough centered along the West Coast. A shortwave trough dropping south off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will act to deepen the longwave trough a bit over northern California the next few days and continue cool the airmass aloft. Meanwhile...the marine layer depth remains at about 2000 feet and moderate onshore flow persists. Thus...we can expect continued widespread night and morning low clouds over the next few days, along with cooler daytime temperatures inland. In fact, high temperatures across most inland areas are forecast to remain cooler than normal through Tuesday, and be as much as 10 degrees below normal. Temperature trends are expected to reverse course by the middle of the week. By midweek an upper ridge is forecast to strengthen over the country's midsection and expand west across California. This will lead to a gradual warming trend during the second half of the work week and into next weekend. Most warming is expected to occur inland, while coastal areas remain seasonably cool. Temperatures in most areas are expected to return to near normal by the end of the week, and perhaps climb a bit above normal next weekend. Otherwise, no significant weather is forecast over the next 7 days. && .AVIATION...As of 5:00 AM PDT Sunday...The current satellite fog product is showing stratus along the coast and well into the inland valleys this morning. According to the Fort Ord profiler the marine layer remains at a depth of 2000 feet, similar to yesterday. The GOES IFR probability product is showing a hole in the stratus around KSFO and a majority of the approach, however there is still time for this to fill in. A trough of low pressure is approaching from the northwest and may result in an early return of stratus this evening. Vicinity of KSFO...VFR is expected to prevail today with a potential for bkn-OVC015 to pass over the terminals between 1300 and 1500Z. The sea breeze will reach 15 to 20 kt this afternoon with gusts to 25 kt possible. Stratus will return to the bay early this evening potentially impacting the terminals by 0400z. Overall confidence is moderate. Confidence is low on early stratus return. SFO Bridge Approach...Stratus is present over the bay this morning and cigs BKN-OVC015 may fill in this morning, if it does the first guess on burn off is 1700Z. Stratus is also anticipated to fill in over the bay early this evening as a trough of low pressure continues to push towards the area. Confidence is low. Monterey Bay Terminals...Low clouds are well entrenched into the Monterey and Salinas area. First guess at morning burn off for KMRY is 1830 with KSNS burning off by 1900Z. Winds are expected to 15 kt this afternoon with gusts to 20 kt possible. Stratus is expected to return early this evening. Confidence is moderate. && .MARINE...as of 9:41 PM PDT Saturday...Gusty northwest winds will continue over the northern and outer waters overnight into Sunday. Elsewhere over the coastal waters winds will gradually increase Sunday. Gusty onshore winds are forecast north of the Bay Bridge Sunday afternoon and evening. Swells will be light through the weekend and into next week with fresh wind waves being the dominant wave energy over the inner waters. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tday...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 3 PM SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 3 PM SCA...SF Bay from 2 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: Dykema AVIATION: Larry MARINE: Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook and twitter at: www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMTR 151145 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 445 AM PDT FRI JUL 15 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A weakening ridge of high pressure over Southern and Central California will result in another warm day inland. Coastal influences and onshore flow will keep temperatures seasonably cooler near the ocean and bays. Cooler temperatures are expected by Saturday as an upper level trough develops off the West Coast. && .DISCUSSION...as of 3:08 AM PDT Friday...Satellite imagery shows more extensive coastal stratus this morning, as compared to yesterday at this time, with low clouds extending into the San Francisco Bay and North Bay Valleys, and through the Monterey Bay and well into the Salinas Valley. Current temperatures are cooler than those from 24 hours ago with mid 50s to lower 60s most places. The onshore flow is also slightly stronger with 2.6 mb between SFO and SAC versus 1.8 mb yesterday at this time. High pressure aloft centered over the Desert Southwest is still extending into Southern and Central California, and will give one more day of very warm temperatures to inland areas in the district today. Highs today are expected to be slightly cooler than yesterday, though, with inland areas ranging from the lower 80s to near 100. By Saturday and upper level trough is progged to approach the West Coast. This will usher in a cooling trend that should last into early next week, with high temps perhaps 10 degrees cooler across inland areas. A gradual re-warming is expected by late next week as high pressure rebuilds into California from the east. && .AVIATION...As of 4:45 AM PDT Friday...The marine layer is much deeper this morning topping out at approximately 1500 feet. According to the GOES IFR probability product cigs are present in San Francisco Bay with a hole around SFO terminal. Cigs will pass over the terminal intermittently this morning. Low cigs and fog are impacting the Monterey terminals with stratus pushing well into the Salinas valley. Vicinity of KSFO...For the most part expect VFR at the terminal with periods of bkn-ovc005 passing over the terminals between 1200 and 1600Z this morning. VFR is expected from 1700Z on. The sea breeze will reach 18 kt this afternoon. Confidence is moderate. SFO Bridge Approach...Sct-Bkn008 are expected to pass over the approach this morning. First guess of morning burnoff around 1700Z. Confidence low to moderate. Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR cigs ovc002-004 are expected to prevail this morning. First guess of morning burnoff at KMRY will be 1800Z and 1600Z at KSNS. The sea breeze is expected to reach 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Confidence is moderate. && .MARINE...as of 2:52 AM PDT Friday...A thermal trough will remain positioned along the California coast for at least the next couple of days, maintaining generally light winds and seas over a majority of the coastal waters with stronger winds and rough seas expected over the northern outer coastal waters. Winds are anticipated to increase beginning Sunday as the thermal trough slides to the east. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tday...SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm SCA...SF Bay from 2 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: Sims AVIATION: Larry MARINE: Larry Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook and twitter at: www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KSGX 101556 AFDSGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service San Diego CA 856 AM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Fair and seasonal weather will continue this coming week. A low pressure trough to the north will bring more coastal clouds and cooler weather through Monday, along with strong winds to parts of the mountains and deserts today. Higher pressure will bring warmer weather and less coastal cloudiness for the rest of the week. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... The marine layer developed a portion of the cloud deck that was lower this morning than it was in previous mornings. This despite the lower pressure aloft and the weak coastal eddy that usually tends to lift clouds. The cloud thickness was about the same so clearing will be quick again for a sunny prevalence across the region today. Winds will be rather strong and gusty through parts of the mountains and deserts this afternoon and evening, and less so on Monday. Expect greater coastal cloud coverage nights and mornings into Tuesday morning supported by the coastal eddy circulation. Daytime temperatures will be lower today through Monday as the low pressure trough cools our air mass and deepens the marine layer. A high pressure ridge in the southwest will strengthen Tuesday to bring warmer weather and less coastal cloudiness through Thursday. Daytime temps will rise above average with sunny days. On Friday the ridge begins to break down under a weak trough in the Northwest. That will bring cooler weather and more extensive coastal clouds into the weekend. && .AVIATION... 101430Z...Coast/Valleys...The low stratus deck pushed 20 to 25 SM inland this morning, with bases between 900 and 1400 ft MSL and tops from 1400 to 1700 ft MSL. Visibilities were locally reduced to 3-5 SM with HZ over the western valleys. The low stratus should clear back to the coast between 15 and 17z, with a few low clouds lingering over the coastal waters or immediate coast this afternoon. Typical afternoon sea breezes will prevail between 18z today and 02z Monday. Low clouds will slowly return to the coast after 03z. Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear with unrestricted vis through this morning. West to Southwest winds will increase this afternoon and evening to 15-20 kt with gusts to 30-40 kt. This will result in areas of UDDFS/LLWS, especially near the passes/canyons and along the deserts slopes of the mountains. Visibility may also be locally reduced to 3-6 SM at times due to blowing dust. Winds will weaken by 12 Monday. && .MARINE... 800 am...Westerly winds will be stronger than average this afternoon, with gusts near 20 kt possible beyond 20 NM offshore. From 0 to 20 nm offshore wind gusts should peak at 10-15 kt. Winds will be weaker Monday, with more seasonal afternoon sea breezes prevailing through the upcoming weekend. && .BEACHES... 800 am...A 2-3 ft south swell from 200 degrees will generate 2 to 3 ft surf with local sets to 4 ft along beaches with a southwest exposure today. This will contribute to moderate to locally strong rip currents at the beaches. The best chance for 4 ft sets will be in Orange County. && .FIRE WEATHER... A low pressure system moving inland through the Pacific Northwest will bring stronger onshore flow with stronger and gusty southwest to west winds for the deserts and desert slopes of the mountains for this afternoon and evening. The combination of the gusty winds and low inland humidities will bring critical fire weather conditions for the deserts and desert slopes of the mountains with a Red Flag Warning for the desert portions of southwestern San Bernardino County for this afternoon and evening. See LAXRFWSGX for details. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... CA...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM PDT this evening for Victor Valley-Apple Valley-Lucerne Valley-Johnson Valley. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM PDT this evening for Orange County Coastal Areas. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC/FIRE...MM AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...BA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KBOX 071358 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Taunton MA 958 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across interior southern New England this afternoon and evening, some of which will produce torrential rainfall and may be severe. An active weather pattern will remain in place Friday into the weekend with rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Dry weather returns early next week with seasonable temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 10 am Update... * Thunderstorms expected 1 pm to 8 pm, especially north & west of I-95 in CT, RI, and MA. * Torrential rainfall, gusty winds, small hail are main threats. * Localized flooding possible. Backdoor front remains draped across eastern MA with low clouds/fog behind it. Front should not make much further progress to SW this afternoon and should even begin to retreat NE again. High-res models keep much of NE MA in cooler airmass and it will be a close call whether or not it gets back through Boston as flow turns more to E. Should see low clouds/fog erode slowly as GOES experimental IFR probs indicate layer is fairly shallow, but with persistent onshore flow it will not erode all at once. Fog has also been an issue near South Coast due to southerly flow bringing 70+ dewpoints into region. This should likewise burn off over land through early afternoon as layer is fairly shallow as well. Attention then turns to thunderstorm potential for this afternoon. Some disagreement as to where storms are favored, with high-res models focusing activity near South Coast sea breeze front across CT, RI and adjacent SE MA while overall parameters look more favorable across interior (western/central MA and northern CT). So far SPC mesoanalysis shows best instability working its way north from NJ and NYC toward South Coast, so high-res models have have the right idea. However we may see storms initiate on other boundaries including terrain and backdoor cold front, so no one area seems to be out of the woods with perhaps exception of NE MA which should remain in cooler onshore flow. Based upon that uncertainty, we are not planning to issue any Flood Watches with this update. Threat still appears very localized but we would not be surprised to see some 3"+ rainfall totals in spots. Forecast highs in 70s/80s look good with lower 90s in Hartford/ Springfield areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Tonight... With lack of diurnal heating, storms dissipate. Storm activity though may maintain SE and offshore associated with weak mid level troughing and accompanying vortex energy providing enough forcing on SW convergent low-level theta-e moist flow. Otherwise quiet with light winds. A mild and muggy night as dewpoints remain well into the 60s. There is the potential for radiational cooling as clouds clear W to E and subsequently with antecedent rains and sultry air there is the threat for dense fog. Greatest threat across the N/W interior. May also see impacts across the S/E coast associated with a marine stratus layer. Friday... Much of the day is dry beneath weak mid level ridging and anti- cyclonic flow. Can not rule out some shower activity during the later half of the day as sea-breezes act upon the destabilizing boundary layer across the interior, mainly interior W out in the CT River Valley. Lack of mid to upper level forcing, majority of any activity looks to be low-topped. A challenge in forecasting temperatures dependent on the morphology of sea-breeze / back-door cold front into the interior and the expectation of marine layer air / low clouds beneath the weak dry inversion aloft. Greatest focus N/E where it is expected to be cooler, warmer S/W. Looking at a range from the upper 70s to the low 90s NE to SW. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Highlights... * Unsettled weather with showers/t-storms possible at times Fri night through the weekend * Cooler this weekend with below normal temps * Dry weather with a warming trend next week Overview... Models are in good agreement on the large scale pattern during the extended period but there are some minor timing differences. Robust mid level trof will be moving into New England this weekend bringing cooler and unsettled conditions. The trof gradually exits next week with upper ridging building in from the west by mid week. This will result in a period of dry weather with a warming trend next week with models signaling a return to summer heat towards the latter half of next week. Details... Friday night and Saturday... Mainly dry conditions to start the evening but models bring a shortwave into SNE later Fri night into Sat morning well ahead of the main mid level low. Deep moisture plume assocd with this shortwave along with elevated instability and high pwat airmass suggests showers and sct t-storms will affect the region with locally heavy rainfall. Then increasing mid level forcing later Sat into Sat night as the main trof approaches from the west will bring a renewed threat of showers and isold t-storms. Exact timing is uncertain but latest guidance suggest the heavy rain threat Fri night will be mainly across western New England then shifting east during Sat. Low confidence temp forecast Sat as there remains uncertainty with the location of the frontal boundary near SNE. GFS lifts the front to the north with temps warming into the 80s while ECMWF has the front south of the region with temps in the 60s. NAM/GGEM are a compromise with the front somewhere across SNE. Temps Sat will be highly dependent on the location of the front. We used a blend of the available guidance but big bust potential on temps. Sunday... Unsettled weather to continue as mid level trof axis moves across the region with deep moisture in place. Expect lots of clouds and sct showers. Instability is marginal so we did not include thunder but can't rule out an isold t-storm. More uncertainty on temp forecast as GFS considerably warmer than ECMWF, especially across northern zones. We used a blend with highs mostly in the 70s. Monday through Wednesday... Monday will be a transition day as one last shortwave moving through the flow may result in a brief shower as the trof axis will be just east of New Eng. Otherwise, looks mainly dry through the period with a warming trend as the trof gradually exits with rising heights as upper ridge builds in from the west by mid week. Temps near or slightly below normal Monday warming above normal by Wednesday. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Friday/... 14z update... Today...Moderate confidence. IFR/LIFR near both coasts slowly improves to VFR through early afternoon. SCT SHRA/TSRA developing across interior S New England midday continuing into early eve. Local +SHRA with VSBYS briefly lowering to MVFR-IFR and wind gusts to 35kt possible. SHRA/TSRA by midday continuing into afternoon. Likely TEMPO MVFR-IFR conditions with +RA. Tonight...Moderate confidence. Mainly VFR. Tempo MVFR-IFR with leftover SCT SHRA/TSRA in the early evening hours. Patchy dense IFR-LIFR fog develops over the W and Central interior overnight as low clouds slip in from the N/E as winds back NE. Could be some issues for the S/E coastal terminals but low confidence at this time. Friday...Moderate confidence. IFR-LIFR fog dissipates during the morning as stratus continues to be an issue N/E. This may lift through the day. Winds veer E. Late in the day there is a chance for SHRA/TSRA across the W and Central interior. KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence. Main time frame for TS 19z-22z but most of storms should remain to W. KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence. Main time frame for TS 17z-20z. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday night into Saturday...Moderate confidence. Potential for MVFR/IFR conditions in developing stratus. Showers and sct t-storms move into the region from the west later Fri night into Sat. Sunday...Moderate confidence. Mix of VFR/MVFR cigs with sct showers. Monday...High confidence. Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels. Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Friday/...High confidence. Fair boating weather overall. There will be instances of marine stratus / fog impacting the waters as S winds steer more N/E through the period. Seas remaining at or below 5 feet. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the interior today could potentially move E into the waters this evening, though greater confidence over the S/SE waters, especially over the outer waters, for overnight into early Friday shower and thunderstorm activity. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...Moderate confidence. Expect winds and seas to remain below SCA thresholds. Low confidence on wind direction Sat due to uncertainty with the locations of the frontal boundary. Could have E/NE winds over E MA waters and southerly winds over the south coastal waters. Mainly NW winds Sun/Mon but lower confidence Sun as low pres will be in the vicinity. Seas may approach 5 ft over outer waters Sun into Mon. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ002>004. MA...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MAZ004>016- 026. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/Sipprell NEAR TERM...JWD SHORT TERM...Sipprell/Thompson LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...JWD MARINE...KJC/Sipprell  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDVN 270824 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 324 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016 High pressure brought mostly clear skies, aside from some mid- level clouds across the south, and light winds. Temperatures remain mild in the mid to upper 60s. GOES IFR probability product highlighting areas along and south of highway 136 for possible dense fog. However, do not have sfc obs in this region to confirm fog formation. Further south, Kirksville, MO and Quincy, IL are reporting 1/4SM FG. Will continue to monitor conditions and likely handle with a special weather statement if necessary. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016 Today...Bit more of a range in temps compared to the last few days - from the lower 80s north of highway 20 to the lower 90s along/south of highway 34 west of Galesburg, IL. Daytime mixing forecast to increase NW winds to 10-20 mph from the late morning through the aftn. Humidity will be very comfortable with dewpoints in the lower 60s. Tonight...Mostly clear and cooler in the upper 50s on avg. 850mb trough and associated cold air advection drop in from the north during this period, causing 850mb temps to fall to around 10 C by early Tuesday morning. Uttech .LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday) ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016 Expect dry and cooler conditions on Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region. Afternoon highs will range from the low 70s near Freeport to around 80 degrees near Keokuk. For Wednesday, afternoon highs will be a few degrees warmer, but still slightly below normal for late June. There will likely be one main period of potential showers and storms through the extended, but synoptic models remain inconsistent on the timing. The 27/00z GFS and GEM are stronger solutions with initial rain chances Wednesday, followed by more showers/storms with the main fropa Thursday and Thursday night. The ECMWF is the weakest solution with rain only in the far north Thursday afternoon/evening. Blended model pops range from 20 to 40 percent from Wednesday night through Thursday night. Rain will likely not occur all three periods, but will not vary from the model blend as it is difficult to rule out any particular period at this time. High pressure will be the dominant feature Thursday night through Sunday with little or no chance of additional rain. Expect near to slightly below normal temps, with afternoon highs mainly in the upper 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016 Generally VFR conditions with clear to mostly clear skies to with light westerly to northwesterly winds the next 24 hours as weak high pressure dominates. Patchy ground fog will be possible overnight due to light winds and possibly trapped low level moisture with visibilities possibly reduced as low as 2 miles and possibly even a bit less at one or more terminal until sunrise. && .DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Uttech SHORT TERM...Uttech LONG TERM...RP Kinney AVIATION...Nichols  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 251151 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 351 AM AKDT SAT JUN 25 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...Good run to run continuity. They initialized well against the 25/06Z surface analysis. No Canadian model to work with today. There is better agreement on the strength of the shortwaves moving across the arctic through the weekend. Also a little better agreement on the easterly wave coming in the back door on Sunday. Will go with a blend of the models, but lean toward the NAM for precipitation coverage as GFS and ECMWF have it spread a bit thick across the interior. ALOFT...At 500 HPA...a closed 535 dam low over 80n 150w and the associated shortwave that extends south over Nuiqsut will continue to move east with the shortwave over Banks Island by Sunday morning. A 563 dam high over the central Brooks range will move over the eastern Brooks range by Sunday morning, then be absorbed into ridging over the Yukon Territory that then rotates over the Northwest Territories by Sunday evening. A 548 dam low over the northeast Pacific will wobble around and move over 50n 150w by Monday morning then slowly drift northeast. A 582 mb high in the western Bering Sea will drift southeast over Atka by Sunday morning with ridging extending northeast over the upper Koyukuk valley. A col will develop over the interior by Sunday evening with the axis roughly over the Alaska range. A shortwave will spin around the low in the northeast Pacific and move over the area southeast of Delta Junction by Sunday afternoon. A 540 dam low will move just north of Wrangel Island Saturday evening with a shortwave extending south over the Gulf of Anadyr, and continues east to be 200 nm north of Wainwright by Sunday morning with the shortwave extending south over Unalakleet, and northeast to 300 nm north of Barrow by Sunday night with the shortwave extending south over McGrath. Models indicate enhancement of the shortwave on Monday as it remains stationary, then it moves northeast with ridging rebuilding across the interior Tuesday night. AT 850 HPA...Pretty warm under the thermal trough today and tomorrow with temperatures in the 10 to 15 Celsius range over most of the interior. Cooling trend will bring them down to 5 to 10 degrees Celsius Monday and Tuesday with the zero isotherm moving over the Arctic coast and plain. SURFACE...Thermal trough lies across the interior. A 1015 mb high over the northwest coast will break off the ridge over the west coast and move east across the arctic today to be over MacKenzie Bay by early Sunday morning. Weak ridging will persist over southeast Alaska and Prince William sound. A 1004 mb low will meander around in the northeast Pacific then dissipate mid week. A weather front will move over the northwest coast and continue east across the arctic through Sunday evening then move north of the coast. A 1017 mb high will move over the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait Sunday morning, then east across the arctic plain on Monday. Weak ridging will persist over the eastern Bering Sea through the weekend. A weak easterly wave with a 1008 mb low will move over the Fortymile country early Sunday morning. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...Some dense fog and low stratus to the west of Deadhorse this morning will work its way east. Expect the really low conditions to move east of Nuiqsut later today as everything moves in advance of the bubble high with the onshore flow. GOES MVFR/IFR Probability product at 25/0945Z indicates MVFR stratus over the northwest coast to Nuiqsut which lines up with the current observations. Cooling temperatures behind the bubble high as a weather front will move over the northwest coast late this evening and work its way across the arctic through Sunday evening. A 1015 mb high will build in from the west behind the front. Winds northwest today becoming southeast behind the high. wind speeds 5 to 15 mph today increasing a bit on Sunday to 10 to 20 mph in the coastal areas. Showers over the eastern Brooks range Sunday and Monday as upslope conditions will prevail. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...Weak high pressure will be the general rule over the area through the weekend. A weather front will brush the Chukchi Sea coast tonight, but will not bring much more than some clouds to the area. Winds will generally be onshore from the west to northwest at 5 to 15 mph along the coast with light winds inland. Some isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms and showers in the upper Kuskokwim valley and vicinity, and south of Galena in the middle Yukon valley, associated with the thermal trough that is over the area. Temperatures cooling a bit starting tonight. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...Some isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers through the day, generally south of Fairbanks along the Alaska range. Winds generally light. Temperatures in the 70s to mid 80s again today with a cooling slight trend starting tonight. Sunday will be a bit more active with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms as a easterly wave swings into the area and spreads them west and north to the Yukon river. && .COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...No concerns at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER...Drying over the interior under the thermal trough. No significant winds expected through Monday. Some isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms and showers in the upper Kuskokwim valley and vicinity, and south of Galena in the middle Yukon valley, and south of Fairbanks along the Alaska range. Increased shower activity with the easterly wave moving into the Fortymile country on Sunday. && .HYDROLOGY...No concerns at this time. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SDB JUN 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 241131 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 331 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...Excellent run to run continuity. No Canadian model to work with today. They all initialized well against the 24/0600Z surface analysis. The ECMWF brings a sharper trough across the arctic this weekend, while the GFS is flatter and faster. All the models have the cutoff low over the southwest coast dropping southeast of Kodiak Island tonight and into the northwest Pacific to 50n 150w where is spins around through at least the middle of next week. Convection will be the big issue in the interior while rain from the Seward Peninsula south will gradually taper off. Models indicate the convection will be mainly west of Fairbanks in the inland areas between the Brooks range and Alaska range. Will use a blend today with a lean toward the NAM for precipitation coverage and a nudge to the SREF to increase the probabilities. ALOFT...At 500 HPA...a closed 549 dam low over the eastern Yukon Territory is moving northeast. A 561 dam high over the central Brooks range will weaken slightly as it moves south over the central interior tonight and a col develops. A closed 548 dam low over the southwest mainland will move southeast into the northeast Pacific tonight. A 537 dam closed low over the dateline near 78n will move east to 80n 150w by Saturday morning with a shortwave extending south to Nuiqsut, and by Saturday afternoon will be over the eastern Beaufort Sea. a 581 dam ridge over the western Bering Sea will move to the central Bering Sea by Saturday morning with ridging poking in over the Norton Sound, and by Sunday morning the ridging will extend east over the central interior. A 542 dam low will develop 300 nm northwest of Wrangel Island Saturday morning and move to 150 nm northwest of Wainwright by Sunday morning with a shortwave extending south over the Bering Strait, moving east to 150 nm north of Barrow by Sunday evening with the shortwave extending south over Galena. A backdoor shortwave will develop over the southern Yukon Territory on Sunday morning and move over the eastern interior Sunday evening then merge into the longwave trough by Monday morning over the central interior. AT 850 HPA...Forecast area is above Zero Celsius with areas of the central interior near 15 degrees Celsius. Not a lot of change next couple days, then some cooling late Sunday as the zero isotherm moves over the northwest coast and by Monday morning most of the area north of the Brooks range will be at or below zero Celsius, while the remainder of the area will be slightly cooler with temperatures in the 5 to 10 Celsius range. SURFACE...Broad low pressure system over state with low centers over the southwest, the central interior, the upper Tanana valley, and the central arctic coast this morning. The low over the arctic coast will continue to move east today in the eastern Beaufort Sea tonight. The low over the southwest will move south over Kodiak Island tonight and into the northeast Pacific where it will become quasi stationary into the middle of next week. The thermal trough will remain over the upper Tanana valley and central interior as a 1007 mb low develops over the northern interior late Saturday. A ridge of high pressure over the Chukotsk Peninsula will move over the Bering Strait and northwest coast this evening with a 1015 mb high breaking off over the Chukchi Sea and moving east across the arctic tonight to be over Barrow by Saturday morning, and to MacKenzie Bay and the Eastern Beaufort Sea by Sunday morning. As a 999 mb low moves in behind the high it will merge with the low over the central interior and the whole system will move east across the arctic on Sunday with a trough extending east to west over the upper Yukon flats Monday. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...Cloudy over the northwest coast and Central arctic around Barrow, partly cloudy to clear to the east today. Weak trough will move east later today spreading clouds east, while some clearing is possible to the west as high pressure moves over the area. GOES MVFR/IFR Probability product at 24/0915Z indicates some lower stratus ceilings south of Point Lay this morning, but most of the stratus is offshore. Models suggest this will continue, but with the onshore flow moving over the area expect that some of that stratus will also move onshore over the coastal areas tonight. Not expecting much precipitation if any next 24 hours. As mentioned above southeast flow will turn to north flow as the high moves over the northwest coast tonight. Temperatures will be pretty warm today, especially in the interior plains areas and the central coastal areas that stay in the east to southeast flow most of the day. Cooler temperatures the remainder of the weekend with onshore flow. Winds generally 5 to 15 mph. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...Some patchy dense fog this morning around the Bering Strait and on St Lawrence Island. The GOES MVFR/IFR Probability product at 24/0915Z and observations indicate IFR conditions over the northeast Chukchi Sea coast, Kotzebue Sound, the Bering Strait, and some MVFR conditions in Norton Sound. Do not see much change in that today as the ridge continues to build in from the west and the low moves southeast. Conditions continue to be relatively unstable so isolated to scattered thunderstorms again today over most of the inland areas, with the highest potential in the lower Yukon Delta, the upper Kuskokwim valley, and the middle Yukon Valley from Galena south. Winds generally light and variable. Temperatures generally in the 70s in the inland areas, and the 60s along the coast this afternoon. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...Some isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers to the west and south of Fairbanks today with a slight chance of them making it into the middle Tanana valley this afternoon and evening. On Saturday they will be mainly south of Fairbanks over the alaska range. Generally light winds. Temperatures in the 70s to mid 80s across most of the interior today and Saturday with overnight lows in the 50s. && .COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...No concerns at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER...Drying across the eastern interior and upper Tanana valley will continue today. Still pretty wet out west so not much concern there. Fairly active thunderstorm activity in the lower and middle Yukon so will need to keep a close watch out there. Isolated thunderstorm activity in the Alaska range and the upper Tanana valley as well. Relative Humidity recovery overnight will be poor in the eastern interior. && .HYDROLOGY...No concerns at this time. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SDB JUN 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 161043 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 243 AM AKDT THU JUN 16 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...Similar solutions through around 48 hours, then they are really struggling with what to do with the ridge breaking down and the low moving east or northeast across the state. Over the arctic models disagree on whether or not a low or a ridge move over the high arctic by Saturday morning. For the near term the forecast is pretty straight forward so will maintain continuity by just nudging to the current model solutions. Beyond 48 hours will go with a blend of the latest solutions with a lean toward the NAM precipitation solution through Sunday morning then ALOFT...At 500 HPA...574 dam center over the middle Yukon valley will move southeast over the Anchorage bowl this morning with ridging extending northwest over Kotzebue Sound, and continues south into the Gulf of Alaska this evening with ridging extending northwest over Point Hope. The high center will be over the Gulf of Alaska Friday morning at 570 dam with ridging extending north over the middle Tanana valley then northwest over Cape Lisburne. The ridge will continue to slowly work east and by Saturday morning will lie over the AlCan border extending north into the Beaufort Sea. A 537 dam low in the eastern Beaufort Sea will move southeast into the Northwest Territories. A 545 dam low in the central Bering Sea will move slowly east to be over St Matthew Island by Friday morning, then north over the Bering Strait. Beyond that the models have different takes on what will happen, but eventually the low will fill and move east or northeast across the state by Tuesday with ridging building back over the state for the middle of next week. AT 850 HPA...Zero isotherm lies from Old Crow Yukon to Umiat to Wainwright this morning and will move northeast out of the state tonight. A band of 10 to 13 degree celsius temperatures lies northwest to southeast across the state, and by Saturday morning those warmer temperatures will lie over the AlCan border. some near zero celsius temperatures will move over the west coast Friday in advance of the upper level low. SURFACE...1026 mb high 50 nm east of Barrow will move east to 150 nm north of Deadhorse this evening then moves north, then a 1016 mb high over the NWT will merge with it as the center moves into the eastern Beaufort Sea near Banks Island by Saturday morning. Thermal trough over the upper Tanana valley will persist. A 1007 mb low over the central Bering Sea will move to the Bering Strait by Friday morning as a 1008 mb low over Cold Bay this morning is absorbed into it. Weak troughing over the Gulf coast will slowly move north and merge into the thermal trough along the north slopes of the Alaska range, while weak ridging build over the Gulf coast. The trough will continue to move northeast across the interior on Saturday as the ridge builds to the south. A 995 mb low will move over the central aleutians Saturday morning, and over the southwest mainland by Sunday morning. Showers will spread north up the coast and the western interior Friday with the first low, then spread into the interior Saturday night and Sunday, but with so much model disagreement it is difficult to say to what extent. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...GOES MVFR/IFR Probability product at 16/0815Z indicates some pretty extensive coverage of MVFR stratus over the arctic coast and extending south into the plains. With the high moving to the east and easterly flow persisting over the arctic coast, do not expect much change, though expect a few breaks during the afternoon and evening as the land warms. A few flurries possible this morning around Barrow, but no accumulation. Winds generally 5 to 20 mph. Temperatures warming a bit today, then a bit warmer on Friday. Inland areas will be quite a bit warmer as they will see some good surface heating with the stratus dissipating. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...Some showers moving north over the Norton Sound region and into the lower Yukon delta tonight and will continue north Friday with showers over most of the area. The heaviest rains will be in the upslope terrain regions, but even there expect it to be less than one half inch. Winds will generally be light across the region with the strongest winds around 20 mph on the Bering Strait coast on Friday. A cooling trend beginning today will continue through Saturday. A chance of some embedded thunderstorms northwest of Huslia Friday. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...Will continue to be very nice in the interior today with highs around 80. Some clouds over the northeast interior with a slight chance of thunderstorms and showers over the Fortymile country and upper Yukon Valley this afternoon and evening. Will continue to be quiet on Friday with a slight chance of thunderstorms and showers northwest of Tanana. More extensive coverage of Thunderstorms and showers Saturday. Winds will generally be light, but expect some gusty downslope winds in the Alaska range into the thermal trough during the afternoons. Temperatures will continue to climb through Friday with highs in the mid 80s for some locations Friday afternoon. Cooling trend for the weekend, but expect highs in the lower 70s. && .COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...None. && .FIRE WEATHER...South and east of the Yukon river today...Near Red Flag conditions during the afternoon hours as stronger downslope and gusty winds into the thermal trough develop. Most of the interior will have relative humidity values in the 20 to 30 percent range today, and slightly drier on Friday east of Tanana and south of the Yukon river. Temperatures cooling west of Tanana with warmer temperatures to the east today and Friday. Not a lot of thunderstorm activity, but a slight chance this afternoon over the Fortymile country and upper Yukon valley. Near Red Flag conditions again Friday in the interior that may require more action later today. && .HYDROLOGY...No issues today. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory for PKZ230. Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ235. && $$ SDB JUN 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMPX 121818 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 118 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 404 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2016 Today and tonight...Surface analysis early this morning shows a surface low over western SD with its associated warm front extended ESE through SD into southwestern MN and northeastern IA. Its associated cold front then drops southwest through the Rockies. Aloft, the peak of an upper level ridge is atop the region though there is a noticeable buckle on the western side of the ridge. It is along this small shortwave disturbance combined with the northeastern advance of the warm front that convection has broken out early this morning in the center of the WFO MPX coverage area, aligned fairly well with the I-94 corridor. PWATS are still in the 1.3-1.5 inch range, most of which is in the middle to upper levels since dewpoint depressions are largely 10-15 degrees. As an example, MSP airport has picked up nearly one inch of rain in about an hour's time from the storms that formed overnight. These storms will last through daybreak but not much beyond since the upper trough is shifting eastward with time. The additional moisture put in place with these showers and their alignment will play a part in expected convection later on today along the warm front and ahead of the advancing cold front. Insolation between a mixture of layered clouds will add to low-to- mid level instability as dewpoints climb into the middle and upper 60s for central-western MN and into the upper 50s to lower 60s in eastern MN and western WI. As the cold front advances, which will enhance lift and be a main player since upper level support will be limited to another weak buckling shortwave on the backside of the departing ridge, convective temperatures will be achieved which will start shower/thunderstorm development over the far eastern Dakotas. These storms are then expected to march east southeastward along the warm front, again along roughly an I-94 corridor, towards the Twin Cities and into southwestern WI. There is some minor uncertainty in exact placement of storms and minor timing issues but confidence is high enough such that POPs can be increased to the 80-90 percent range by tonight. For severe storm potential, the main hazards will be large hail and damaging winds mainly due to the weak support aloft and outflow-boundary-driven nature of the storms. However, there is a non-zero chance of a tornadic threat for storms that perpetuate in the vicinity of the warm front. The storms will progress southeastward through the overnight hours, impacting much of the coverage area, with weak, if any, storms left over in southeastern portions of the coverage area by daybreak Monday morning. Regarding temperatures, most locations will start out in the lower 60s (in western WI) to the lower 70s (in western MN). Highs will then top out in the upper 70s (in western WI) to the lower 90s (in western MN). The cold front will not make a complete progression through the coverage area until tomorrow so low temperatures tomorrow night will be mild, generally in the 60s to lower 70s. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 404 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2016 By 12Z tomorrow morning, the frontal boundary will be positioned from northwest WI through south central MN with decaying showers and thunderstorms becoming more scattered in nature advancing southeast. So, continue to carry pops along and ahead of the front in the 12Z- 18Z time period tomorrow as we work that front out of the area. A tease of high pressure will come in behind the front Monday, with clearing skies likely at least across western MN. But, a shortwave trough across the southwest CONUS will amplify and advance northeast into the Upper Midwest by Tuesday night. Still expect widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop out ahead of the trough on Tuesday into Wednesday with 1-3" rainfall amounts still looking good. The Upper Midwest still looks to be north of the best combination of instability and shear for this system. A marginal risk of severe weather does extend into far southern MN, with a slight risk of severe weather maintained well to our south where stronger instability and shear will be at play Tuesday afternoon. The exit speed of this system looks even faster now, so the main change with this forecast package was to reduce pops faster on the back side Wednesday and Wednesday night, with a completely dry forecast in store for Thursday. Beyond Thursday, the upper ridge looks to maintain itself across the Upper Midwest as a deep trough/upper low remains parked over the Pacific Northwest. This will provide the region with warm and dry conditions, but we do have a slight chance of thunderstorms working into western MN this weekend along a frontal boundary that the GFS wants to push through. The ECMWF is dry during that period though, so will look for better continuity and agreement in the next few model cycles. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 118 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2016 Confidence is increasing in thunderstorm evolution this evening, so started narrowing windows for thunder at TAFs. Based timing on the HRRR and HopWRF. Expect TSRA into AXN around 23z and the Twin Cities around midnight. RWF looks to be near the southern edge of the line that develops, so removed the tempo there and went with a vcts. By the time this reaches EAU, confidence decreases considerably on what will be left of the line, so just have a period of -shra late tonight. Other concern for late tonight into Monday morning is the threat for MVFR cigs to develop behind the cold front. There was extensive stratus deck this morning across the western Dakotas, but SREF MVFR probs are greatest tonight/Monday morning over northern MN. NAM soundings support some MVFR cigs developing, though later than what LAMP guidance has and followed the slower NAM timing for bringing MVFR cigs in with IFR cigs possible depending on where and how much rain a terminal sees. KMSP...MVFR cigs that came up from moist air emanating from heavy rains overnight down toward Red Wing have broken up and we will maintain prevailing VFR conditions until MSP gets behind the front Monday morning. Short range models are beginning to hone in on TSRA threat for MSP, with strong clustering in reflectivity guidance with storms rolling through between 5z and 7z. Confidence in MVFR cigs Monday morning not as high as we have with TSRA tonight, but the fact that we are expecting a round of storms to moisten things up does support the development of lower stratus/statocu behind the front. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...MVFR SHRA/TSRA likely by afternoon. Wind E 5-10 kts. WED...MVFR SHRA/TSRA likely in morning. Becoming VFR in afternoon. Wind S 5-10 kts...becoming NW. THU...VFR. NE 5-10 kts. && .MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...JPC SHORT TERM...JPC LONG TERM...SPD AVIATION...MPG  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 112113 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 113 PM AKDT SAT JUN 11 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...Very good agreement in the short term with improved agreement in the extended periods. Initialized with a couple millibars against the surface analysis at 11/18z. Going to maintain continuity with the previous forecasts so just going to nudge the current database for the short term. ALOFT...At 500 HPA...Ridging over the southeastern interior extends from Eagle northwest over Point Hope and will weaken a bit as the eastern continues to move northeast while the west drops south so the ridge will lie along the south slopes of the Brooks range and over Kotzebue sound by Sunday morning. A 538 dam low over Cold Bay will move east to the southwestern Gulf of Alaska by Sunday morning at 541 dam, then continue east to 100 nm west of Ketchikan by Monday morning. A shortwave over the western arctic will spin around the 515 dam low 600 nm northwest of Wrangel island to lie over the northwest coast early Sunday as it weakens. The low will move south tonight to be 200 nm north of Wrangel island with a shortwave extending south and merging into the longwave trough over the west coast. The low will move east to 200 nm northwest of Barrow Sunday night then moves north into the high arctic by Tuesday morning. The longwave trough will slowly march east across the state with it over the middle Yukon valley by Sunday morning and will lie from over barrow to Delta Junction to off the coast near Sitka by Monday morning. A strong shortwave will spin around the low in the arctic to be over the northwest coast late Sunday evening, and will lie from barrow to Galena Monday afternoon, and from Deadhorse to Delta Junction by Tuesday morning. A col will move over the Bering Strait this evening, the western interior by Sunday morning, and the eastern interior by Monday morning. AT 850 HPA...Zero isotherm over the arctic. Over the upper Yukon flats and south slopes of the Brooks range temperatures around 10 celsius tonight will persist through Sunday then start cooling. The remainder of the forecast area will generally have temperatures between 3 and 8 degrees celsius into Monday. The next front will move over the northwest coast monday and the zero isotherm will lie from Deadhorse to Ambler to Cape Espenberg by Monday afternoon. SURFACE...Pretty benign pattern over the interior with weak trough across the middle of the state and plenty of moisture being slung north. Low in the northwest arctic will continue to spin in place through tonight them moves east spinning a cold front to the northwest coast Sunday night. Weak trough moves north to the south slopes of the Brooks range by Monday afternoon and ridging will build in over the eastern bering sea and along the north slopes of the Alaska range by early Tuesday. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...Some stratus along the coast tonight, while inland over the southern plains and central Brooks range it will be partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Weak front will bring more clouds to the northwest coast Sunday. GOES MVFR/IFR probability product at 11/1915Z indicates mainly VFR conditions over the arctic, which is a drastic change from normal. Much warmer than it has been in the inland areas and Brooks range tonight and Sunday. Winds generally southwest to west 5 to 20 mph through Sunday with the strongest winds over the northwest coast. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...Isolated thunderstorms and scattered showers this evening south of ambler, and to a lesser extend on Sunday. Some of the heaviest rains will be in the Nulato hills tonight and Sunday with rainfall amounts around a half inch. The next cold front will move into the area from the northwest early Monday morning and spread some showers to the Chukchi Sea coast and Kotzebue sound region by early Monday morning. Temperatures similar to today through Monday morning, then cooling a bit to begin the week. Light winds through early Monday then picking up from the west and northwest on the coast as the cold front moves through the area. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...Isolated thunderstorms and scattered showers this evening with showers overnight persisting through Monday over the central interior, and Tuesday in the eastern interior. Some of the thunderstorms will have small hail, short heavy downpours, and gusty winds to 25 mph. Much of the thunderstorm activity will move north into the upper Yukon flats on Sunday, but there will still be a slight chance to the south. A slight cooling trend through mid week. Winds generally light except near the Alaska range winds will be gusting to near 30 mph. && .COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...None. && .FIRE WEATHER...Minimal fire weather concerns for Northern Alaska over the next few days. Relative Humidities will increase as moisture spreads north, especially over the Northern Interior where conditions have been the driest. Most locations should generally see relative humidity values above 35 percent through early next week. Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected to continue and develop over the Interior and Central Brooks Range. They will likely be isolated in coverage, but there is the possibility for scattered thunderstorms from Anvik to Galena east through Fairbanks and Circle. Chances for thunderstorms will shift to the north Sunday and in an area from Tanana to Circle and north. Wetting rains are possible over the Middle Tanana Valley and Fortymile Country this evening into Sunday. Numerous showers and periods of rain are expected and could potentially bring upwards to three quarters of an inch of rain...heaviest southeast of Fairbanks. && .HYDROLOGY...Some locally heavy showers but not expected to be widespread enough to create any issues. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ201-PKZ225-PKZ230. && $$ SDB JUN 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 061134 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 334 AM AKDT MON JUN 6 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...There has been good run to run continuity, but the models did not perform very well with the rapidly moving system that moved across the state yesterday. With the pattern not being as active today, they should do better. They did initialize well against the 06Z surface analysis, but are still struggling beyond 78 hours as they diverge significantly. ALOFT...At 500 HPA...571 dam high center 200 west of the Gulf of Anadyr will move slowly south and west while a ridge extends southeast over Unimak Island. A 533 dam low 250 nm north of Demarcation Point will move north and be absorbed by a low moving out of the high arctic over the western arctic. The associated trough extends southwest over Iliamna lake and will very slowly move southeast to be over the yukon territory by Wednesday morning. A 539 dam low will develop in the trough over Minto this morning and move over the upper Yukon flats by Tuesday morning and dissipate. A ridge axis will move over the northwest coast this today and lie from Norton Sound to Kaktovik by Tuesday morning, and over the central part of the state by Tuesday evening. A developing low near the pole will deepen to 518 dam tonight as it moves to 400 nm north of Wrangel Island, and to 515 dam by Wednesday morning as it moves to 400 nm north of Barrow. The first shortwave associated with the low will move over the northwest coast late Tuesday moving east across the arctic to the Beaufort Sea by mid day Wednesday. A second, stronger shortwave, associated with the low will move over the Chukchi Sea early Wednesday and over the northwest coast and Bering Strait by Wednesday afternoon and move across the arctic by Thursday afternoon. Ridging south of the Brooks range will keep most of the energy associated with the shortwaves over the arctic. AT 850 HPA...Zero isotherm lies from Dawson Yukon to Nikolai to Kaltag to Wainwright this morning and will move north today, and by Tuesday morning the zero isotherm will only be over the northwest coast as warmer air surges over the rest of the state. It will start moving south Tuesday night and will lie from Shingle Point Yukon to Gambell as cooler air surges south, then stalls. SURFACE...A trough lies over the southern interior along the north slopes of the Alaska range and in the upper Tanana valley this morning, and will continue to slowly move south and east. Ridging continues to build in over the northwest part of the state behind the front and will move east and south. A 1015 mb center develops over the arctic plain this morning and moves to the northern Yukon Territory late this evening. Ridging will move south of the Brooks range later this morning and persist into Tuesday before being pushed out as the next frontal system develops over the Brooks range with a 1006 mb low near Coldfoot developing and moving east into the Yukon early Thursday. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...Flow changing trough the day from onshore to offshore to easterly later this evening over most of the area. Not much change in conditions except the winds. Lots of stratus on the GOES MVFR/IFR probability products at 06/0915Z. May see a few breaks in the inland areas, but the coastal areas will be cloudy. The next front will make its way to the northwest coast Tuesday morning and spread rain to the area west of Barrow. Precipitation will initially be rain, but cold air surging in behind the front will change it to a mix of rain and snow Tuesday night on the coast and in the Brooks range. Areas in the Brooks range will see another round of heavy snowfall with 2 to 5 inches possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A weak shortwave will move south over the Chukchi Sea and Bering strait this afternoon and evening spreading some isolated showers to the area, otherwise most areas will be mostly sunny today. The next front will move to the area Tuesday afternoon moving south across the Chukchi Sea and spreading showers to the western interior early Tuesday morning as it weakens. Warmer the next day or so as some warm air surges north in advance of the front. Winds generally northwest to north at 5 to 15 mph with slightly stronger winds on the coast and with the weather front. No significant rainfall is expected with this next system. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the east and south of Fairbanks will slowly come to an end as the system that moved through the central interior yesterday moves east into the Yukon. Patchy dense fog this morning. Winds generally light and variable. Temperatures slowly warming. The next system will move to the area on Wednesday afternoon spreading isolated showers and thunderstorms to the area. && .COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...None. && .FIRE WEATHER...Pretty quiet and expected to stay that way. Some Isolated thunderstorm activity today over the southeast interior, and with the next system that moves across the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures a bit warmer the next few days, but generally near normal for early June. No significant winds, but they could be gusty with the next weather front that moves across the state. && .HYDROLOGY...Some pretty heavy rains Sunday, but most rivers and streams well below normal levels and they should be able to absorb the runoff. No significant rainfall expected with the next weather system. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory for PKZ245. && $$ SDB JUN 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KPHI 300814 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 414 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Tropical moisture will continue to track northward across our area today. A cold front will then cross the area Tuesday followed by high pressure for the middle of the week. A cold front, attached to low pressure moving across eastern Canada, will slide across the Mid Atlantic region early next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to move northward through the region early this morning. Rainfall amounts overnight have generally been around 1 to 2 inches. However, with heavy rain still moving through, locally higher amounts remain possible. For more information on any flood threat or rainfall amounts, please see our PNS and FLS products. Tropical Depression Bonnie continues to weaken as it moves slowly along the South Carolina coast early this morning. Tropical moisture associated with Bonnie continues to push northward towards our area. As Bonnie weakens and moves east, the moisture plume that has been feeding into our area will also start to push east. While we will still have showers and some isolated thunderstorms around through the day today, the latest model guidance shows that the best chances will remain along I-95 and east with out western areas starting to dry out. While it won't be a steady and constant rain all day long, there will extensive cloud cover across the region and in areas where it does rain or thunderstorms develop, we could still see some heavy rain fall. Fog continues to remain a concern along the coast. While the rain moving through will eventually help to dissipate the fog, we will also need the winds to turn more to the west and moving offshore. Fog should start to clear out by late morning/early afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... For the most part, the rain should be ending across the region. Areas to the east of I-95 may still see some showers into the evening but the threat of thunder looks like it will have ended. With Bonnie not moving and remaining to our south, we likely won't fully clear out and shower chances will continue across out southern and eastern areas overnight. Expect showers to end by late tonight/early Tuesday. Fog may once again form across the region overnight. Cloud cover will remain across the region with some possible clearing over our northwestern areas. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Due to ongoing weather operations, the long term portion of the forecast has not yet been completed. A new forecast and discussion should be available toward 6 am. High pressure will build in from the north Tuesday and remain into Wednesday night. Dry weather is expected much of the time with above normal temperatures in most areas. Highs both days will be in the low/mid 80s in most areas with some 70s for highs along the shore and the higher elevations well to the north. A few scattered showers may creep into the Delmarva areas later Wed as the edge of moisture associated with what will be left of Tropical Depression Bonnie will be moving south/east of the area. The pops across srn Delaware at these times will only be 20-25 pct at most. The tropical moisture and an advancing h5 trough will be setting up across our area towards the end of next week. This will bring some unsettled conditions with typical late spring/early summer showers/tstms to the area. Pops will be mostly in the chc range for now with details yet to be specific with regards to timing and locations. Temperatures during this period will be close to normal. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 12z...mainly MVFR/IFR conditions continue across the region. Some breaks in the rain have allowed for conditions to briefly return to VFR but this is not expected to be sustained through the rest of the night. Additional rain continues to develop to the south of the area and will push northward. Some isolated thunder is noted over the western shore of Maryland. However, confidence in any thunderstorms impacting the terminals remains low. Winds are generally out of the south but are becoming light and variable at some terminals. Monday...MVFR/IFR conditions in the morning along with times of heavy showers and some thunder, then the main area of showers/thunder shift toward the coast in the afternoon. The lower conditions last the longest at KACY to KMIV, with possible improvement in the afternoon to VFR mostly at KABE and KRDG. Patchy fog is possible at the terminals Monday night. South to southwest winds mostly in the 5-10 knot range. OUTLOOK... Tue-Wed night...Mostly VFR. Few showers psbl far South Wed. Thu- Fri...Mostly vfr but lower conditions psbl in sct showers/tstms. && .MARINE... We have extended the time for the Dense Fog Advisory until 2 pm today. We have also added in the remaining zones on the ocean, also in effect until 2 pm. With the water temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s and dewpoints in the 70s, fog is expected to continue across the waters through this afternoon. South winds remain light across the waters with gusts up to 25 knots. Winds will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through today. Seas will start to build but are expected to remain below 5 feet. The far eastern portions of our ocean zones may near 5 feet later today but are expected to remain below. OUTLOOK... Sub-sca conditions expected most of the period. Seas on the ocean may reach close to 5 ft Thu night...but low confid in this attm. Sct tstms with higher winds/seas possible Fri. && .CLIMATE... Daily record rainfalls that have a chance of exceedance, if heavy showers can persist for 1 to 2 hours. Note, splitting amounts between two days lowers the chance of a single day record event occurrence. There is a good chance several long term climate sites will increase to a top 10 ranking for the month of May in our CWA. PHL ACY AND ILG only need an inch of rain these last 3 days of the month to rank as a top 10 wettest month of May. Monday ACY 3.07 1984 por 1874 PHL 1.74 1908 por 1872 ILG 1.10 1983 por 1894 ABE 1.68 1968 por 1922 TTN 1.62 1912 por 1865 GED 2.04 1984 por 1948 RDG 2.92 1904 por 1869 (highly unlikely to approach a record daily rainfall) MPO 1.86 1990 POR 1901 && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ450>455. && $$ Synopsis...Gorse/Meola/O'Hara Near Term...Meola Short Term...Meola Long Term...O'Hara Aviation...Gorse/Meola/O'Hara Marine...Meola/O'Hara Climate...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KPHI 290829 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 429 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to push further off the Middle Atlantic coast through tonight. Tropical Storm Bonnie will move along the southeastern United States coast over the next several days. Moisture from this system will move northward and into our area today and Monday. High pressure will build towards the region Tuesday, remaining to our north through Thursday. A cold front will move through the area over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Early this morning...patchy dense fog has formed where it rained ydy along and north of I-80. otherwise, any patchy fog elsewhere should be shallower and less dense and all of this dissipates between 6 and 7 am. Today...Issuing SPS at about 530 am for heat hazard n of I-78. Still very warm but with lower dewpoints into midday, not quite as uncomfortable...however, high dewpoints will be returning from south to north during the mid and late afternoon hours with morning southwest winds of 5 to 15 mph turning more southerly. It will be a mostly sunny morning with increasing cirrus during the afternoon. Then a wall of water via cloud cover (PWAT rising from .5" now over the Delmarva to 2" by 00z this evening) starts advancing nwd through the Delmarva late afternoon with showers, some heavy with possible FLS nuisance flooding, possibly also a thunderstorm. Was conservative on the northward advance. May need to update timing in the 630 AM ESTF. Max temps...again well above normal...ranging from 7F above normal south to as much as 16F above normal north where lower 90s expected again in NNJ and ne PA. Otherwise mid to upper 80s Delmarva...PHL 88, to around 90-93F along and north of I-78 (Lehigh Valley ewd through WRI-MMU). NAM BL temps have been increasing on recent cycles. These max temps for the fourth consecutive day are significantly above all other avbl MOS guidance/blends/bc adjusts (except some ecmwf localized guidance). The heat index will again rise to between 90-95F I-78 north and will SPS at 530 AM. This also should mean a 4th consec day of 90F at KABE and KWRI and a possible official heat wave (see definition in CLI section) for KRDG which is on the margin for 90F. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... Deep layer moisture, PWAT up to 2 inches, in part from Tropical Storm Bonnie is forecast to move across the area with widespread showers and isolated T-storms. General lift is aided as represented by the rrq of an upper level 80 kt 250MB jet core...over southern Ontario. A sfc boundary will focus the heaviest rain, in the light northerly flow along a forming sfc wind shift. A 30 kt 700mb speed max may initially focus heaviest rain near Chesapeake Bay-E Pa Sunday evening, then it appears the 850 southerly inflow will shift the axis of excessive rain potential somewhere just to the east of I95 by Monday morning. Potential exists for a couple of narrow swaths of 3-4" rains by 12z Monday...more details possible late today. no flash flood watch attm but am concerned about the I95 corridor in the 03z-12z time frame. Mild nighttime mins...10 to 15F above normal. Light southerly wind with a shift to northerly near a developing sfc convergence zone around or just east of I-95 late tonight. Will probably post daily record rainfalls as believed appropriate in the CLI section by 5 am. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Moisture from Tropical Storm Bonnie will push northward and we will continue to see showers and some thunderstorms on Monday. PWATS remain high, around 2 inches in some areas, so expect some of the showers to be fairly heavy, especially during Monday morning. Memorial Day continues to look like a washout across the region. The pops will start to drop from northwest to southeast but it looks like we will continue to see some showers continuing into Monday evening. Rain will linger longest over our southeastern areas, likely ending by late Monday night. With heavy rain possible, we will need to monitor the flash flooding potential. As mentioned before, the PWATS are 1.5 to just over 2 inches across the region. Some heavy showers and thunderstorms could drop one to two inches of rain with locally higher amounts possible. We will continue to mention the flash flood threat in the HWO. The guidance shows some pretty decent differences in how the remnants of Bonnie are handled. The GFS is a bit dryer and keeps the low to the south of the area and eventually dissipates it near the Carolina coast. The ECMWF keeps the low spinning over the Carolina coast with a gradual push to the northeast, moving it up the Mid- Atlantic coast through the week. The ECMWF solution would keep us in a cloudier set up and a wetter pattern with the chance for the remnant moisture to make its way into the region for Tuesday through Friday, with the best chances across our south and east zones. With the uncertainty of where and when Bonnie will track north/northeast, we have upped the cloud cover through the week and introduced some slight chance/low chance pops. Again, the best chances will remain across southern New Jersey and the Delmarva. A low pressure system will arrive from the west and drag a cold front through the region over the weekend. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 12z...Generally VFR. Light south wind. Today after 12z...VFR with a south-southwest wind gusty to 15 kt midday. Then MVFR or IFR conds in showers/iso tstms spread north through the Delmarva into southern NJ and the Philadelphia late this afternoon-evening. Please see the TAFS for more timing details. No thunder in the TAF since uncertain where best chance of thunder and whether much if any thunder occurs at night in tropical pwat. Tonight...MVFR to IFR conditions in low clouds, fog, and heavy showers, maybe isolated tstms. Sustained winds mostly under 10 kt with a convergence zone of south wind along the coast while a light north wind should develop near I-95 late at night. OUTLOOK... Monday...MVFR to IFR conditions in rain, fog, and thunderstorms affect the terminals. Conditions may drop below IFR at times due to heavy rain. Light winds early will become south to southwest around 10 knots or less. Higher gusts possible in showers and thunderstorms. Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Westerly winds on Tuesday will become more easterly on Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will generally be around 10 knots or less with gusts up to 15 knots. && .MARINE... No marine headlines are anticipated through tonight although dense fog may become a marine hazard toward dawn Monday on the Atlantic waters where ssts are near 60F and the dewpoints should be rising above the SST Monday morning. OUTLOOK... Monday...Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters. Fog is possible in the early morning and again overnight. Waves may start to build in response to Tropical Storm Bonnie but we expect them to remain below 5 feet at this time. However, confidence is not high that we will see much affect until Bonnie moves north of the Carolinas. Tuesday through Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters. && .HYDROLOGY... There is potential for heavy rain and localized flooding from tonight through Monday. This is due to an influx of tropical moisture from Tropical Storm Bonnie. PWATs are forecast to be near 2 inches, well above normal, especially for late May. Depending on how the heavier showers and t-storms set up, isolated locations could easily receive 4 inches or more of rainfall. This may result in localized flooding. The potential for heavy rain was added to the forecast. For now please use a combination of the WPC and MARFC qpf fcsts. as it stands now...general 1-2" is expected across the forecast area with isolated 4+, mainly between 21z today and 21z Monday. && .CLIMATE... Daily record rainfalls that have a chance of exceedance, if heavy showers can persist for 1 to 2 hours. Note, splitting amounts between two days lowers the chance of occurrence. We wont look at monthly rankings until sometime Monday (if time) but there is a good chance a couple of locations will increase to a top 10 ranking for the month of May. Today KGED 1.62 in 1990 por 1948 Monday ACY 3.07 1984 por 1874 PHL 1.74 1908 por 1872 ILG 1.10 1983 por 1894 ABE 1.68 1968 por 1922 TTN 1.62 1912 por 1865 GED 2.04 1984 por 1948 RDG 2.92 1904 por 1869 (highly unlikely to approach a record daily rainfall) MPO 1.86 1990 POR 1901 Record max temps today appear less vulnerable today than yesterday with only Mount Poconos 89F in 1911 being threatened. Right now we KMPO projected for 87F. You probably saw the near records yesterday at KMPO (-1), KABE (-1), KRDG (-2). Daytime max temp guidance continues to be significantly under forecast across PA/NJ for the past 3 days, especially by Super and National blends. We are better off in these sunny non-marine influenced summerlike regimes using the latest operational guidance as a starting point and modifying this upward by adding 4F to the 18z ECMWF 2m temps. The GFS 2m temperature fcsts have also been biased low, in part because of too much low lvl moisture. Also a note about heat waves: here in the northeast USA, we tend to stay close to the AMS glossary of Meteorology definition of a heat wave and as follows: In 1900, A.T Burrows more rigidly defined a 'hot wave' as a spell of three or more days on each of which the maximum shade temperature reaches or exceeds 90F. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Meola Near Term...Drag 429 Short Term...Drag 429 Long Term...Meola Aviation...Drag/Meola 429 Marine...Drag/Meola 429 Hydrology...429 Climate...429  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KSGX 191615 AFDSGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service San Diego CA 915 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2016 .SYNOPSIS...The marine layer stratus will dominate through the weekend. While there will be good clearing today in the valleys, the coast will remain mostly cloudy this afternoon. By Friday and Saturday, even many valley locations will stay cloudy, and daytime temperatures will be well below normal over the region due to a trough of low pressure. There will be occasional drizzle and light rain during the nights and mornings through at least Saturday from the coastal slopes west to the coast, and there will be areas of strong winds in the mountains and deserts. The trough will weaken a little bit early next week, but temperatures will remain below normal, with a lot of coastal stratus, but better warming is likely late next week. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Stratus covered all areas west of the mountains this morning with patchy drizzle. The valleys were starting to clear, but with a 10-11 deg C inversion, a cloud thickness of around 1400 feet deep and strengthening onshore flow, it looks like gloomy conditions will persist through the afternoon near the coast. With the onshore flow and strengthening thermal gradient between the coast and deserts, there should be moderately strong west/southwest winds in the typical windy locations from the mountain crests east over the desert slopes to some desert floor locations, especially east of San Gorgonio Pass, with gust potential in the 50-60 MPH range starting late this afternoon and continuing through Friday night. The upper trough now from Oregon to British Columbia will dig south through Friday night will dominate the West Coast for awhile as secondary waves will dig down the back side. Local WRF shows the marine layer deepening to 3500-5000 ft MSL tonight which is easily enough for drizzle or light rain. WRF is showing areas of measureable rainfall amounts late tonight/early Friday, but without a dynamic trigger, these should be just a few hundredths of an inch. A better trigger comes in from the north late Friday night/early Saturday which could bring another chance of precipitation, though there will be a little bit less moisture available then within the marine layer. Temperatures will be well below normal by Friday and continuing Saturday, with most if not all areas west of the mountains, even in the valleys, staying in the 60s. By Saturday, even the lower deserts may have highs only around 80. In contrast, average highs in the lower deserts are now in the upper 90s. Heights do rise some early next week despite the continued troughing, but the overall air mass will not change much until some ridging comes in around Wednesday or Thursday of next week. Therefore, temperatures will stay below normal but with some increase early next week. While there will be colder air aloft, continued onshore flow will likely keep areas of stratus around early next week, with the possibility of the reverse clearing, where the west-facing mountain foothills clear last or not at all each day. && .AVIATION... 191515Z...Coast/Valleys...Stratus, with bases from 1200-1800 ft MSL and tops to 2800 ft MSL, will continue over the coastal basin through this morning. Vis of 2-4 sm in BR is expected where low clouds near higher terrain. Inland low clouds should clear towards the coast by late this morning, while coastal areas may not clear at all this afternoon. Stratus, with slightly higher tops and bases, will push back into the valleys again tonight. Mountains/Deserts...Southwesterly wind gusts of 50-60 kt are expected through mountain passes and along desert mountain slopes this evening through Friday. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies and unrestricted vis will prevail through tonight. && .MARINE... 815 AM...NW wind gusts near 20 kt are expected over portions of the outer waters Friday through the weekend as low pressure moves by to our north. Areas of drizzle or light rain possible at times through the period. && .SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... CA...Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside County Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Maxwell AVIATION/MARINE...TS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KRAH 181431 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 1030 AM EDT Wed May 18 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A cold front and attendant wave of low pressure will move off the Southeast coast later this morning. A wedge of cool surface high pressure will build over the area tonight through through Thursday. A low pressure system tracking east across the Southern states will bring wet unsettled conditions to the Carolinas Friday through early Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /through tonight/... As of 1030 AM Wednesday... Upper air analysis depict a weak low level trough over the ne sector of central NC. Weak confluence along this boundary in conjunction with modest lift aloft associated with divergence in the right entrance region of a 110+ kt jet exiting the northern Mid-Atlantic was causing spots of light rain/drizzle across sections of central NC this morning. The patches of light rain/drizzle will diminish with time and lift becomes weaker. Abundant low level moisture will be tough to scour out due to lack of sufficient mixing of drier air...thus a blanket of low stratus will persist into the afternoon hours. Area MDCRS aircraft soundings suggest the cloud thickness about a 1000ft or a little less. This suggest that some breaks may occur late in the day...though likely too late to add in temp recovery. Low overcast skies and a steady near sfc ne wind will hold temps well below normal for mid-May. Afternoon temps will top out in the mid-upper 60s north to near 70-lower 70s south. -WSS Ceilings are expected to quickly fall/lower after sunset with IFR to LIFR conditions expected everywhere overnight. Continued weak upglide along the eastern slopes of the mtns will continue to support a slight to small chance of rain, mainly across the western Piedmont. Lows tonight in the lower 50s north to upper 50s south. -CBL && .SHORT TERM /Thursday and Thursday night/... As of 345 AM Wednesday... Parent high center will build over the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard on Thursday with low-level wedge of cooler and drier air ridging south into the area underneath continued WSW flow aloft, within the right entrance region of a ~90kt upper jet streak in place over the Mid- Atlantic region. Low clouds/moisture will persist but sufficient forcing is absent over the area during the day on Thursday. So expect a gray gloomy day across the area with continued below normal temperatures in the mid/upper 60s north to lower 70s south. Weak upglide begins to strengthen Thursday night, in response to mid- level shortwave trough and sfc cyclogenesis over the lower MS/TN Valleys. Better rain chances will remain to our west but will continue to indicate isolated/slight chance pops across the far southern/southwestern zones with onset of In-situ Damming expected. Lows again in the lower 50s to upper 50s, coolest ne. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... As of 330 AM Wednesday... Friday through Saturday night: Shortwave energy is expected to quickly move eastwards from the plains on Thursday night and into our area by late Friday. This will result in chances for showers/rain increasing on Friday, with showers expected along with some storms on Friday night into Saturday with a Miller B type surface pattern (with a CAD boundary expected to develop/strengthen across our area). With a surface high pressure extending into the area from the north initially, before quickly moving offshore on Friday night, we should see an in-situ or hybrid damming event develop over our area. NWP models are showing a low or two tracking along the boundary on Saturday morning, with the associated cold front moving through the area as the last/primary surface low lifts off to the northeast by late Saturday morning early Saturday afternoon. Given the rather poor diurnal timing, the overall severe threat looks to be rather low (but not zero). However, if the timing of the frontal waves lag some, then we could see a increasing threat for some severe storms across our eastern and southern counties, as deep layer shear is expected to increase into the 30 to 40 kt range, increasing upper divergence, along with the aforementioned surface wave. However, the bigger story maybe the moderate to at times heavy rain on the cool side of the boundary (currently expected over the Piedmont/Northwest Piedmont. PW's are expected to increase to around 1.75" ahead of the system, so there will be ample moisture available. Average rainfall amounts are expected to range from around 0.75 to 1 inch across our southeast to possibly around 2 inches or more across the Northwest Piedmont. While we do not expect widespread issues from the heavy rain, we could see some minor flooding in urban areas or poor drainage locations. The main area of precip associated with this lead impulse is now expected to shift off to our northeast by mid Saturday afternoon. However, cyclonic flow aloft will linger across the area, with continued mostly cloudy skies and lingering chances of showers on Saturday night. Temps during this period will largely be driven by the developing/strengthening CAD, making temps quite tricky, with an expected warm sector across our southeast by Saturday morning. Will show temps ranging from the mid 60s nw to the mid to upper 70s se for highs on both Friday and Saturday, with lows showing a similar trend from the upper 50s to mid 60s. Sunday through Tuesday: Additional energy is expected to dive southward out of Canada helping to close off into a mid/upper level low over the mid atlantic region late weekend into early next week, which will result in continue chances for showers and possibly some storms depending on the placement of the mid/upper low for Sunday and Monday. However, the best chance for precip will be during the afternoon into the evening/more diurnally driven convection. Highs Sunday and Monday are expected to run near to generally slightly below normal. Highs Tuesday will return to more seasonable values as the mid/upper low is expected to lift off to the northeast. Lows temps are expected to be near normal. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday through Monday/... As of 740 AM Wednesday... 24-Hour TAF period: Rain will gradually taper off from west to east as the surface front and attendant offshore coastal low move farther out to sea. Despite the front moving south of the area, low-level moisture will remain in place across the area today, which will result in slow improvement through the day, with gradual lifting of IFR/LIFR ceilings to MVFR by the late afternoon. Additionally, with lingering low-level moisture in place, any weak shortwave impulses moving through the region could support light spotty rain/drizzle. Ceilings are expected to quickly fall/lower after sunset with IFR to LIFR conditions expected everywhere overnight/Thursday morning. Looking ahead: While mostly dry conditions are expected on Thursday, sub-VFR conditions will continue into Thursday, with ceilings once again lowering to IFR or LIFR Thursday night/Friday morning. A low pressure system tracking through the Southern states Friday through Saturday will result in widespread adverse aviation conditions in heavy rain and potentially a period of LLWS Friday night. Drier VFR conditions is expected to return on Sunday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CBL NEAR TERM...WSS/CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...CBL  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KLMK 172312 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 712 PM EDT TUE MAY 17 2016 ...Updated Forecast and Aviation Discussions... ...Forecast Update... Issued at 645 PM EDT Tue May 17 2016 Upped the rain chances over southern Indiana to categorical given plume of moisture streaming into that region. Some hi-res guidance continues to indicate additional showers developing overnight over Kentucky, in response to an upper level jet getting a little more organized over Indiana and Ohio through the overnight. Have started to trend the forecast up there for overnight. Otherwise trended the rest of the forecast toward current obs. .SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)... Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue May 17 2016 Cloudy and cool conditions continue across the Ohio Valley as a very March-like pattern persists. Patchy light rain continues to move through, but the steady rain has stopped for some time and the main upper wave along the I-44 corridor in MO has stayed far enough north that most of the precip should track across Illinois and Indiana. Still expect most locations to see measurable rainfall again later afternoon and into this evening as this disturbance swings through. So it's a high-POP/low-QPF forecast tonight, with a minimal drop in temps. Precip should taper off from NW-SE after midnight, with only a slight chance lingering into Wed morning in the Lake Cumberland area. For Wednesday expect the last of the precip to exit by late morning, with partial clearing from the north as the afternoon progresses. Temperatures will remain solidly below normal, but should run close to 10 degrees warmer than today. Should clear the rest of the way on Wed night, but light NE winds should be just enough to head off any fog potential Thu morning. .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Issued at 250 PM EDT Tue May 17 2016 Main system of interest in the long term is a deepening upper low that will bring widespread rain to the Ohio Valley Thursday night through early Saturday. Most pleasant weather day of this work week appears to be Thursday, with shortwave ridging aloft and a surface high over the Great Lakes. Expect sunshine and temps recovering to near seasonal normals. However, by Thursday night the next system will take shape over the Southern Plains. With an inverted sfc trof lifting through the Tennessee Valley and a good low/mid-level Gulf moisture tap, rain appears to be a near-certainty. Good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF, but the NAM12 is an outlier in not bringing the precip this far north. At this point this is seen as an outlier, so will have likely or categorical POPs Friday into Friday night. Instability is only marginal so will limit thunder to a chance mention, but the main issue will be QPF. Basin averages will easily run 1 inch, with higher amounts where there is more convective character. Much of the precip could fall in short enough periods on Friday to cause localized flooding. Models are coming into agreement on a sufficiently progressive solution to get the upper low to the mid-Atlantic coast before it closes off sometime late Saturday. Will carry chance POPs and low QPF on Saturday for any lingering precip, with Sat max temps fairly quick to recover toward climo as heights rise. Sun-Tue will feature a blocky pattern with the closed low along the East Coast, and building ridge over the Midwest. Will string together 3 dry days with temps near or above normal. Humidity will start to creep up later in the week, but will hold off any storm chances beyond the scope of the 7-day forecast. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)... Issued at 710 PM EDT Tue May 17 2016 Ceiling heights and how hard the rain falls are the main threats this period. Expect LIFR to MVFR ceilings for most of this forecast. The worst time looks to be focused between 05 and 15Z at each site, with SDF having the best chance at staying MVFR the longest. Latest GOES-R IFR probability product has a band just between BWG and SDF, affecting LEX, this hour. Expect with sunset and into the evening that this band will expand, possibly briefly getting into SDF in the 05-08Z time frame before retreating south a little. High pressure nosing into the region overnight should start pushing the better rain chances southward, with those chances dropping off at all sites around daybreak. Winds will persist from the northeast as that high pressure builds in. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........RJS Short Term.....RAS Long Term......RAS Aviation.......RJS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KOKX 170004 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 804 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will weaken tonight. A weak frontal system will impact the region Tuesday. High pressure builds into the area Wednesday through the end of the week. The high moves offshore Saturday as low pressure may affect the region Saturday night and Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Winds still gusting 25-35 mph near coastal areas, but wind gusts are dropping off inland. Think the peak winds are just about over, and once sun sets, should have a fairly quick dropoff in wind speeds. It will likely still remain a bit breezy thru the first half of the eve due to the depth of the mixed flow until winds decouple late. Mid and high clouds over PA then overspread the CWA overnight. This will limit low temp potential otherwise expected with the drop in winds and low dewpoints. For this reason...record lows are not expected at this time. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... A weak cold front over the Midwest and low pressure developing off the Delmarva will both attempt to produce some light rain over the region Tue afternoon and Tue night. Frontal forcing is weak...and moisture is limited as the low and the associated mid level frontogenesis trending too far s at this time. Kept POPs in the chance category as a result...and lowered the QPF. This will allow the 00z model cycle to help with certainty. Regardless of rain chances...it will be mainly overcast with solid mid and high moisture across the area. Went close to the Superblend for temps...as the cloud cover should offset some of the climatology effects...especially at night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Fairly high confidence forecast Wednesday through Friday across the Tri-State area as models in good agreement on the overall pattern. Uncertainty increases and forecast confidence decreases for the upcoming weekend regarding possible low pressure affecting the area. A weak wave of low pressure will be moving offshore Wednesday morning with drier air working into the region from the north and west. Trends in the model guidance over the last few cycles are for a quicker departing low so have trended pops down Wednesday morning to slight chance inland and low chance near the coast. Pops decrease further in the afternoon as the atmosphere continues to dry out and high pressure builds into the region. This high pressure will be the dominant weather feature through Friday as a shortwave trough axis swings across Wednesday night and ridging builds aloft behind it through Friday. Near seasonable temperatures are forecast during this period. A split flow pattern will be across the eastern states at the beginning of the weekend. A shortwave trough will likely be situated across the Ohio Valley and southeast on Saturday with low pressure developing across the middle atlantic. Uncertainties increase with the amplitude of this trough and if this low pressure will be able to come up the coast Sat night/Sunday, or if it will move far enough south with limited impact to the region. Much of this uncertainty lies with the amplitude of the trough and whether or not it cuts off over the Ohio Valley Saturday night as the 12z ECMWF depicts. Some of this is tied to how much ridging occurs to the west and over the trough. The 12z ECMWF brings the cutoff south over the southern middle atlantic whereas the 12z GFS keeps the trough open and allows the low to come up the coast Saturday night into Sunday. The ECMWF idea brings only a glancing impact to our area as the surface low would stay much further south. The 12z GEFS also show large spread...but its mean is closer to the 12z ECMWF and 00z ECMWF ensemble. Have generally followed a model consensus for pops for the weekend as this is still a day 6 and day 7 forecast, and cutoff lows can cause predictability issues in models. Depending on when and where the cutoff low forms will also determine if unsettled conditions continue into early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The region will remain in between low pressure to the northeast and high pressure to the southeast into Tuesday afternoon. A weak low moves up the mid-atlantic coast late Tuesday. Most likely VFR through the TAF period. There is a very low chance of mvfr ceilings after 21z at the City Terminals. W-NW winds diminish this evening and back to the W-WSW, and then should become light and variable at inland and ct terminals between 2-6z. The winds increase speed to around 10 kt by mid-late Tuesday morning. Winds should then back to the WSW-SW by late Tuesday afternoon...and diminish a few knots in speed. There is a chance of isolated gusts to 15-20kt at mainly city terminals from late Tuesday morning through mid Tuesday afternoon. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information...including hourly TAF wind component fcsts can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Timing in changes in wind speed and direction and end of wind gusts could be off +/- 1-2 hours. KLGA TAF Comments: Timing in changes in wind speed and direction and end of wind gusts could be off +/- 1-2 hours. KEWR TAF Comments: Timing in changes in wind speed and direction and end of wind gusts could be off +/- 1-2 hours. KTEB TAF Comments: Timing in changes in wind speed and direction and end of wind gusts could be off +/- 1-2 hours. KHPN TAF Comments: Timing in changes in wind speed and direction and end of wind gusts could be off +/- 1-2 hours. KISP TAF Comments: Timing in changes in wind speed and direction and end of wind gusts could be off +/- 1-2 hours. .OUTLOOK FOR 00z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: .Tuesday evening...MVFR probable. .Late Tuesday night-Friday night...VFR. .Saturday...Possible light rain and sub-VFR conditions late. && .MARINE... The strongest winds are occurring nearshore. Even though buoys are indicating winds have diminished below sca criteria, surface obs near the coasts are indicating 25-30 kt gusts. Will therefore carry a sca for all waters until 11 pm. Thereafter...winds and seas subside with all areas below sca levels by Tue afternoon at the latest lasting thru Tue night. Sub- SCA conditions are likely from Wednesday through Friday as a weak pressure gradient is expected from high pressure over waters. Sub- SCA conditions are likely to continue into Saturday, although approaching low pressure from the south may increase winds and seas a bit from those expected at the end of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... The fire spread risk will become greatly diminished this evening as winds drop off and humidity levels rise. Lighter winds and increasing humidity Tue will keep the fire spread risk diminished. && .HYDROLOGY... A quarter inch or less of rain is expected Tue and Tue night. High uncertainty exists in possible rainfall associated with low pressure for late in the upcoming weekend. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/DS NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...Maloit MARINE...JMC/DS FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...JMC/DS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KSGX 151606 AFDSGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service San Diego CA 906 AM PDT SUN MAY 15 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure trough moving into the northern Rockies will maintain a deep marine layer, strong and gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts, and night and morning clouds and patchy drizzle or light rain over the coast, valleys, passes and lower mountain slopes, with only partial clearing during the day. As that trough moves into Arizona on Tuesday, wrap-around showers and perhaps some thunderstorms could occur over the mountains Tuesday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, a slow warming and drying trend is expected Monday through Thursday with a marine layer not as deep. Another low pressure system will bring cooling, gusty west winds in the deserts, and deepening of the marine layer for Friday into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... The marine layer deepened again this morning, with morning visible satellite imagery showing stratus filling the coast, valleys, Santa Ana mountains/foothills, the coastal slopes and the mountain passes, although some breaks in the clouds are evident. Coastal wind observations show that a coastal eddy developed, which likely aided in deepening the marine layer. 12Z Miramar sounding shows a 5-6 degree C inversion at around 4500 ft MSL, and aircraft soundings show the inversion as high as 6000 ft or so. There were some reports of marine layer drizzle in the area, and even some light measurable rainfall amounts on the coastal foothills/slopes ranging from 0.01 to 0.09 inches. According to airport weather stations, bases of the clouds are ranging from 2500 to 3500 ft, which translates to a variable cloud thickness of around 1000-3000 ft. Overall, the clouds appear to be thinner than they were yesterday in some areas, including here in Rancho Bernardo, and so some areas may see more sunshine than yesterday. However, only partial clearing at best is likely, and some locations may stay mostly cloudy all day, including San Diego county coastal areas. Meanwhile, onshore pressure gradients are up to 10.8 mb from San Diego to Las Vegas, and they peaked at 14.3 mb yesterday evening. Gusts of 50-60 mph were reported in a few of the windiest desert spots, and a 45 mph gust occurred in Thousand Palms. Winds have relaxed a little this morning overall, although Whitewater is still gusting to 58 mph. Water vapor satellite shows a low pressure system over Washington, and models show this low moving east-southeast into Idaho/northern Nevada/Northern Utah tonight into Monday morning, and onshore pressure gradients and westerly winds will strengthen again late this afternoon through tonight. Thus, wind advisories continue for the deserts through late tonight with gusts of 45-50 mph and locally 60 mph possible. Due to the trough, stronger onshore flow and deep marine layer, highs today 5-15 degrees below normal are expected. Hi-res models show the marine layer perhaps becoming a little shallower tonight/Monday morning and again Monday evening/Tuesday morning, with a depth decreasing to around 4000-4500 ft, but the cloud layer should still be thick enough to possibly bring some drizzle and/or light rain, with best chances of measurable rainfall along the coastal foothills/slopes. Clearing of stratus for Monday and Tuesday should still be slow and partial at the coast, with perhaps some better clearing in the valleys. A gradual warming trend starts Monday and continues through Wednesday or Thursday with the aforementioned gradually shallower marine layer and increasing temperatures at 850 mb indicated by the models. There is the chance for some showers and perhaps thunderstorms over the mountains Tuesday afternoon/evening as the low moves south into extreme southeast California/Arizona and brings some mid-level moisture and instability in northerly flow aloft, with lesser chances Wednesday afternoon/evening. Cooling, a deepening marine layer and strengthening onshore flow likely to begin on Friday and continue through the weekend as a large trough deepens over the Pacific Northwest. Thus, we may get a return of night and morning patchy drizzle, slow clearing of clouds during the day, and strong and gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts. && .AVIATION... 151530Z...Coast/Valleys...Multiple stratus decks, with bases 1500- 3500 ft MSL and tops to 6000 ft MSL, will continue over many areas over and west of the mountains today. Some areas will remain BKN throughout the day, while others will become SCT/FEW. Low clouds will become BKN/OVC again tonight west of the mountains. Mountains/Deserts...Sfc westerly wind gusts to 40-50 kt are expected at times through Monday morning, mainly through mountain passes and along the desert mountain slopes tonight. Mod-stg UDDFS/LLWS is expected over and east of the mts. Areas of BLDU in the deserts with brief vis restrictions to 1 SM through the period. && .MARINE... 830 AM...Occasional WNW wind gusts to 20 kts this afternoon through this evening over the outer waters as a low pressure trough approaches the region. Otherwise, no hazardous marine weather is expected through Thursday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... CA...Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Coachella Valley-San Diego County Deserts-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Harrison AVIATION/MARINE...JJT  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KILM 131855 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 255 PM EDT FRI MAY 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Thunderstorms may be severe ahead of a cold front which will move across the area this evening. Another cold front will move across the area saturday evening with perhaps some sprinkles across portions of the area. Cooler temperatures and drier air are expected behind this front for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will rise beginning Tuesday with a risk for showers and thunderstorms returning mid and late week as a front stalls across the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 PM Friday...Thunderstorms blossoming across the area this aftn...and a busy evening for convection remains on track. Two areas of thunderstorms have developed slowly today...and these are expected to congeal into a larger area of convection as the aftn wears into evening. Morning cloud cover never quite eroded...but enough breaks developed to allow instability to rapidly increase...and storms have developed along differential heating boundaries between regions of different cloud thicknesses. Latest SPC Mesoanalysis has MLCAPE to 1500 J/kg along the coast...slightly lower inland...with PWATS over 1.6 inches and 0-6 km bulk shear values of 20-30 kt. A cold front approaching from the west is on the western edge of the CWA...and in a continuing-to- destabilize environment will serve as a catalyst for widespread tstms through the evening. SPC maintained the Slight Risk in the SWODY1...and recently issued an MCD with a 40% chance for a watch later today. Do not expect widespread severe weather today...but strong lift aided both by surface features and diffluence within an upper jet may produce isolated large hail...and as storms organize thanks to the aforementioned shear and high PWAT...damaging winds gusts will become the primary threat. 4 km NSSL WRF initialized quite well at 18z (12z run) and is favored for the next few hours. Cold front will race across the area this evening bringing an end to convection late this evening. Dry air will rapidly follow the front...and sky conditions will improve...becoming mostly clear late tonight. Broad high pressure behind the front builds across the area reducing the pressure gradient and winds will drop off to near calm late. Forecast profiles suggest lingering near-surface saturation...likely aided by moistened soils from today's rainfall. Crossover temps will likely be met as mins drop to around 60 well inland...65 at the coast...and local UPS Fog procedure develops areas of fog across the eastern half of the CWA. Have added this to the wx grids...while inland areas will likely be too dry for any fog tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM friday...A secondary cold front will move across the forecast area Sat eve. The deep moisture will already have been swept well offshore by this time. However...there will be a shallow layer of moisture through about 6-7 kft along with shallow frontal lift. thus...will include mention of sprinkles for portions of the area...mainly across southeast north Carolina...in closest proximity to the pivoting upper trough. Behind this second front...the airmass will be much less humid and cooler as a northerly wind takes hold. High pressure to the west will build across the area Sun and Sun night. A weak trough will move across the area late Sun night to reinforce the cooler and drier air. highs Sat will be in the mid 80s...cooling to the mid 70s on Sun. Lows Sat night and Sun night will be in the 50s...coolest Sun night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 AM Friday...East-west elongated high over the area on Monday making for light winds and thus fairly shallow mixing. 850mb temperatures only around 8C bringing highs a bit shy of climo. Good WAA gets underway Monday night to bring considerable increase in cloud cover and so a night not as cool as the preceding. High pressure winds up off the coast by Tuesday allowing for more WAA and moisture increase while seabreeze and a few weak upper disturbances provide lift sufficient for low end chance POPs. Discounting the overly wet looking ECMWF at this time given that it's vort maxes are similarly weak. Cold front dropping into the area late Wednesday possibly accompanied by more energy aloft. Wednesday may offer the best rain chances of the period as some drying is expected behind the front on Thursday. This could be short-lived however as the new airmass may start getting overrun by the next southern branch system just beyond. Previously we were still carrying rain chances on Thursday and will leave in at this time since the late period system will be of very low amplitude and thus possibly faster than progged. After our slightly cool Monday temperatures will return to above normal, with the larger deviations at night due to cloud cover. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 18Z...Showers and thunderstorms beginning to blossom across the area...and an active aftn/evening is forecast. Storms are expected to be strongest and most concentrated along the coast and have tempo IFR for vsby with gusty winds...with mvfr inland thanks to the expected lighter coverage and intensity. Convection will persist through nightfall before a cold front moves offshore. This front will bring an end to any storms...and also produce a wind shift from the current SW winds at 10-15 kt...to NW at 5-10 kt. Behind this front sky conditions will clear and the atmosphere will dry out...but lingering moisture may produce fog...with IFR possible again at the coastal terminals. Confidence is lower inland where drying will be more robust. Any fog will burn off quickly by daybreak Saturday with VFR forecast thereafter. Extended outlook...VFR through Monday. Low confidence for showers Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 300 PM Friday...Cold front approaching from the west is keeping the coastal waters firmly in the warm sector this aftn...with winds remaining predominantly from the SW at 10-15 kt. The exception is in the near-shore waters where a sea breeze has caused a local backing to the South along with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas of 2-4 ft will persist until the cold frontal passage this evening...and this will also be accompanied by increasing showers and thunderstorms. Once this front moves offshore...winds will shift quickly to the NW...but with much lower speeds of 5-10 ktthanks to high pressure ridging in from the west. Seas will fall on these decreasing and offshore winds...becoming 1-2 ft by daybreak Saturday. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Friday...A secondary cold front will swing across the waters Sat eve. Winds will start the day Sat from the north in the wake of earlier cold front and then back to sw and increase to 15 to 20 kt. Then in the wake of the secondary cold front...the wind direction will shift to n and may briefly reach around 20 kt late Sat night and early Sun morning in northerly surge. Winds will lighten up and back to nw and w during Sun and Sun eve as high pressure grows closer. Another trough swinging across the area Sun night should shift winds back to the north with wind speeds increasing toward morning in a developing weak surge. Seas will be up to 3 to 5 ft in the strongest surge late Sat night and Sun morning. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Friday...Plenty of change in wind direction slated for Monday. Lucking wind speeds will remain low so even if wave faces get a bit steep the overall wave height will remain capped at 3 ft. An east-west elongated high will initially be stretched across the area but migrating to an offshore position as Monday progresses, leading to the veering flow. With the high well off the coast by Tuesday a south to southwesterly flow will become established. Wave periods should relax slightly as a swell component does the same. A few 4 foot seas may impinge upon the outer waters. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...JDW SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...JDW/DL  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMTR 131623 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 923 AM PDT FRI MAY 13 2016 .Synopsis... A low pressure system will begin to influence the region today... leading to cooler temperatures and a slight chance of rain over the North Bay on Saturday. Drier weather conditions and a slight warming trend is then expected for next week as high pressure builds over the region. && .Discussion...as of 09:15 AM PDT Friday... Today is Friday the 13th and another May gray day is upon us. The persistent marine layer that has inundated inland coastal regions over the last few mornings is evident again this morning on satellite imagery, especially around the Monterey Bay region. That said, satellite imagery is signaling that the marine layer is not nearly as robust as it has been over the last few days. These signals include a) higher cloud bases, which are generally 500-900 feet higher than the last two mornings and are approaching the top of the marine layer itself. b) The Fort Ord Profiler tops the marine deck just above 2000 feet and bases are already pushing 1700-1800 feet in the Bay Area, which indicates a much shallower layer there than previous mornings. c) The GOES-R proving grounds cloud thickness product shows rather shallow cloud depths of 100-600 feet throughout most of the inland SF Bay Area as opposed to 1000+ feet. And d) satellite imagery shows a few holes in the previously uniform offshore deck. This change can largely be attributed to changes in the nearshore air mass and flow ahead of an approaching upper level trough. Trough interactions with the marine stratus deck are usually fairly tricky, however, expect to see an earlier stratus retreat in the San Francisco Bay Area versus the Monterey Bay region where the stratus deck could linger into the afternoon. This feature will begin to influence the regional weather today and increasingly so into the weekend as it treks eastward across the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures will struggle to warm today and are expected to end the day a few degrees cooler than yesterday... and a few to several degrees cooler than the daily normal. Coastal drizzle has been reported and can be expected along the coast through morning, especially around the Monterey Bay region where the stratus deck is thicker. A slight chance of rain showers also exists in the north bay as the upper low shifts onshore to the north late tonight into early tomorrow. High pressure builds back into the region early next week... leading to a general warming trend into midweek where temperatures are expected to run a few to several degrees above normal. .Previous discussion...AS OF 03:59 AM PDT Friday...A persistent marine layer around 2000 feet in depth continues to impact the region with low clouds spreading well inland this morning. With this, temperatures are holding steady in the 50s for most locations under the cloud cover. As with the past few days, clouds will slowly burn-off through late morning over inland locations. Meanwhile, many coastal areas will remain under cloud cover through much of the day. Temperatures inland are forecast to be slightly cooler compared to yesterday given an increased onshore flow and as the mid/upper level ridge shifts inland. A mid/upper level system remains on track to push inland over the Pacific Northwest on Saturday. The latest forecast models push this system inland to our north, yet show light precipitation moving over the northern coastal waters and into the North Bay region early Saturday morning. Given better consistency with the forecast models, have increased coverage of a slight chance of showers from the San Francisco Peninsula Coast northward into the North Bay. Further south, expecting the marine layer to deepen ahead of the approaching trough tonight into Saturday morning which should result in continued chances of coastal drizzle. Otherwise, most locations south of the Golden Gate will remain dry as this system passes inland. Temperatures will generally remain below seasonal averages inland through the weekend due to the proximity of the mid/upper level trough. Mid/upper level ridging will then build over the eastern Pacific early next week and result in a gradual warming trend and continued dry weather conditions. In addition, northwesterly winds along the coast will increase and likely help with mixing of the marine layer. As a result, cloud cover will likely be less extensive each morning, at least less of an inland intrusion. Temperatures will warm back above average by Tuesday and persist into Wednesday given a warmer, drier air mass aloft. The warm-up will be short lived overall as the medium range models project another mid/upper level ridge impacting the Pacific Northwest late next week. && .Aviation...As of 4:46 AM PDT Thursday...Widespread stratus is moving in over the area on onshore winds. Clearing expected between 17z-19z across most terminals with the exception of the Monterey Bay terminals which may not clear until 20z-21z. Vicinity of KSFO...MVFR cigs then clearing anticipated around 18z today. Mainly light onshore winds except up to 15-20 kt 21z-04z. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR cigs persist through this morning. Cigs anticipated to scatter out around 20z-21z today. Mainly light winds. IFR cigs return this evening. && .Marine...as of 08:09 AM PDT Friday...A weak gradient over the coastal waters will maintain light winds and seas through saturday. gusty winds are possible over the san francisco bay waters north of the bay bridge this afternoon and evening. winds increase late in the weekend into early next week as a low pressure system moves across the area. northwesterly swell will be mixed with a small long period southerly swell. && .MTR Watches/Warnings/Advisories... .Tday...SCA...SF BAY FROM 1 PM && $$ Public Forecast: DRP Aviation: Canepa Marine: Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook and twitter at: www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KSGX 121551 AFDSGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service San Diego CA 851 AM PDT THU MAY 12 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer today with low clouds likely clearing out of inland areas by early afternoon and some clouds possibly sticking to the beaches for most of the day. A deepening marine layer and slow cooling trend will develop Friday through Sunday as a trough moves by to the north. Night and morning low clouds will reach far inland this weekend, and drizzle may be possible Sunday night and Monday morning west of the mountains. The trough will also create gusty westerly winds over the mountains and deserts Late Saturday through Sunday night. A slow warming trend will develop Monday through Thursday as high pressure aloft strengthens. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Morning visible satellite imagery shows overcast marine layer stratus about 15-25 miles inland this morning, which is not as far inland as it was yesterday morning. Looking at the 12Z Miramar sounding, there is a 10 degree inversion at around 1800 feet about MSL, and observations indicate a cloud thickness of around 900-1000 feet. The strong inversion and decent cloud thickness should result in slow clearing today, with clouds clearing out of inland areas by late morning/early afternoon, and a chance that low clouds could stick to the beaches through late in the day. Meanwhile, water vapor satellite shows a low pressure system spinning over the northeast Pacific, with an upper level ridge building over Southern California. Due to the ridge, conditions across the region will continue to warm, with highs expected to reach 3-7 degrees above normal, and locally 10 degrees above normal. The lower deserts could reach 100 degrees in some locations. With the ridge peaking in strength tonight, the marine layer may get a few hundred feet more shallow, with stratus once again moving inland about 15-25 miles tonight through Friday morning. The ridge will start to weaken on Friday as the aforementioned low approaches the west coast. This will create the beginning of a cooling trend and also deepening marine layer trend as the low moves inland through the Pacific Northwest this weekend. The marine layer may get deep and thick enough to create some patchy drizzle Sunday night/Monday morning. Onshore pressure gradients will strengthen as well, with San Diego to Las Vegas gradients increasing to near 11-13 MB Saturday evening, and then up to 14 MB late Sunday. Onshore flow this strong should be enough to create strong and gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts Saturday evening through Sunday night, with wind gusts of 50 MPH and locally 60 MPH possible. We then go into a warming trend again Monday through Thursday as ridging gradually builds across the region, with a shallower marine layer each day. The ECMWF is stronger with the ridge, and thus warmer, than the GFS. The GFS actually shows a short-wave trough moving across the Great Basin and down into Arizona Monday- Tuesday which could bring less in the way of warming and less in the way of a shallower marine layer. && .AVIATION... 121600Z...Coast/Valleys...Stratus with bases 900-1200 ft MSL and tops to 1600 ft MSL will gradually clear to near the coast by 19Z. Local vis 2-4 mi will continue through 17Z within 15 mi of the coast. Local BKN cigs will continue this afternoon along the immediate coast. Stratus will begin to move back into the coastal airports between 00-02Z and spread 15-20 mi inland tonight, with bases around 900-1200 ft MSL and tops to 1600 ft MSL. Local vis will be below 2 mi after 08Z in the valleys, including vcnty KRNM and KAJO. Mtns/Deserts...Clear with unrestricted visibility through tonight. && .MARINE... 900 AM...No hazardous marine weather is expected through Monday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation will not be needed today. && .SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Harrison AVIATION/MARINE...Maxwell  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMFR 120954 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 254 AM PDT THU MAY 12 2016 .Discussion...Fog and low stratus (FLS) surged up the coast last night and has impinged upon the coast and coastal river valleys below about 1000 feet elevation early this morning. Most recent NASA/SPoRT RGB imagery is showing the FLS inland about 10-12 miles up the Rogue River with similar intrusions also occuring in the lower Chetco, Coquille and Umpqua valleys. A few surface observations are indicating patchy light drizzle occurring along with the FLS, mainly south of Cape Blanco, so this has been added to the morning weather grids. Models are showing the marine layer peeling back toward the immediate coast by early this afternoon, but BL moisture remains very high over the coastal waters and doubt that it goes away completely, so we have also increased cloud cover there and along the immediate coast through tonight. Other than some high thin clouds, the rest of the area will be sunny today with another very warm afternoon as a ridge axis shifts overhead. Model 850 temps today are up a bit over yesterday, around 17-18C, so that translates to an afternoon high here in Medford in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees F. East side areas, including Klamath Falls, will have highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Warm weather will continue inland on Friday, but another marine push will keep coastal areas cooler. Some gusty afternoon/evening breezes can be expected in the Shasta valley and also over the east side. Meanwhile, an upper level low pressure system, currently located near 37.5 North and 141.5 West (975 miles off the SW Oregon coast), will move east-northeast to near 40.0 North and 133.5 West by Friday afternoon. This will draw some moisture northward into the CWA and with daytime surface heating, instability will develop by late afternoon and evening. Models continue to show a corridor of showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms developing from western Siskiyou county northward to Douglas county Friday evening. The GFS is most bullish with this activity, but the NAM/ECMWF/SREF guidance are all slightly weaker. The current forecast handles this well, so no changes have been made. The upper low will continue to move eastward Friday night and move onshore by Noon on Saturday. This will increase shower chances across the entire area. Instability though is best from the Cascades eastward Saturday afternoon/evening, where we have indicated a slight chance of thunderstorms. It will be much cooler across the entire area inland from the coast with temperatures 15-25 degrees lower than on Friday. The main energy associated with the upper low will move into eastern Oregon Saturday night into Sunday, then into Idaho Sunday night. This will keep a showery pattern over the area through Sunday, but should lead to a gradual decrease in showers from southwest to northeast across the area by Sunday night. Spilde Extended discussion from Wednesday afternoon...The pattern will remain progressive on Monday. The models have a similar evolution but the GFS is about 9 hours faster with the arrival of the next upper low to Vancouver Island. The southern end of a weak front associated with the low will likely keep conditions mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers north of the Umpqua Divide...with a dry forecast and more breaks in the clouds elsewhere. Model agreement breaks down beyond Monday though the pattern does look to remain progressive. The outlook for Tuesday is for near to slightly above normal temperatures and the next in a series of disturbances mainly affecting areas north of our area. A broader and stronger/colder trough looks to approach the region as early as Wednesday. The GFS is faster and likely too fast with its solution. For now...will stick with near normal temperatures and a broad brush of a chance of showers at the coast and slight chance inland for Wednesday. -DW && .Aviation...For the 12/06Z TAF cycle...Stratus with IFR to LIFR CIGS and VIS will remain along the coast through mid morning Thursday before retreating offshore. VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period elsewhere. -Wright && .Marine...Updated 200 AM PDT Thu 12 May...Light winds and seas will continue today as high pressure offshore weakens. Winds will turn southerly on Friday ahead of the next front but speed will remain below small craft criteria. The front will move onshore Friday night into Saturday. High pressure behind the front will bring stronger pressure gradient and stronger north winds to the area Sunday...increasing further late Monday to near small craft advisory levels. /FB && .MFR Watches/Warnings/Advisories... OR...None. CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters...None. $$ MAS/FJB/TRW  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KARX 120851 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 351 AM CDT Thu May 12 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tonight) Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu May 12 2016 Early morning water vapor satellite imagery showing a mid-level trough extending from the Arrowhead of MN through western WI into western IL. Radar mosaic showing band of showers and isolated thunderstorms...exiting east out of central WI. Areas of dense fog formed in wake of the showers in the very moist lower boundary layer across portions of southeast MN and northeast IA. As such...a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for areas west of the Mississippi River until 7am. Very likely this advisory will be cancelled before 7am as a secondary trough/westerly push of drier air filters in. For today...will see stratus field clear some once this drier get in here by mid-morning. This will be short-lived though with cumulus build-up expected through the remainder of the morning/afternoon as the mid-level trough/colder cyclonic flow rotates overhead. Sounding show cloud thickness around 2kft...so could support a few sprinkles in daytime heating. otherwise...breezy west/northwest winds will overspread the area...drawing in cooler air. Look for highs today in the 60s. For tonight...plan on skies becoming mostly clear with lows dipping into the lower/middle 40s as a weak ridge of high pressure drifts across the region. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 351 AM CDT Thu May 12 2016 For Friday into the Weekend... On Friday...will be watching a mid-level trough drop southeast through the Northern Plains. Models show strong 850-500mb frontogenetic response propagating southeast through the area...centered in the 15-21z time frame and mainly south of I-94. So...looks like a good shot at some showers. In addition...Bufkit soundings showing some elevated CAPE above 8kft or so for some isolated thunder as well. Based on consistent signal over the last several day/model runs...kicked probabilities into categorical range mainly in that 15-21z time frame. Otherwise...temperatures will suffer from cloud cover and shower with highs only expected to top off in the 50s...possibly a few low 60s across far northeast IA/southwest WI. Look for the showers move out of the area by Friday evening as high pressure builds in from the Northern Plains. Plan on a chilly night with lows dropping into the middle/upper 30s. Not expecting any frost as winds should keep up in the 10-15 mph in rather tight pressure gradient. Cold is the main message through the weekend as mid-level troughing dominates the region. Plan on highs Saturday in the middle 40s to the middle 50s...warming slightly into the middle/upper 50s Sunday. May have to watch for some frost late Saturday night into early Sunday morning...which will depend on cloud cover and wind. For Monday through Thursday... Looks like a progressive flow sets up through the period with a couple troughs moving through the region for on/off shower chances. Otherwise...a slow warming trend expected with highs Monday and Tuesday in the low to mid 60s...warming into the 65-70 degree range by Thursday. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed May 11 2016 Skies are starting to slowly clear from west to east in the wake of a weak cold front passage, with a period of light winds and moist conditions expected to bring some fog development to both sites. KRST should find itself down around 1/4SM for a time before improvement takes place from west to east roughly 08-11Z as a secondary and more pronounced cold front sweeps across the area. Similarly, do think KLSE will take a dip for a time with light winds in place, but likely with slightly higher visibility. Once any stratus/fog clears by sunrise, we should see a flare-up of stratocumulus toward midday, with ceilings in the 3-5kft range and perhaps a few sprinkles as well. Winds will become a bit gusty from the west up to around 20 knots later today, with skies starting to clear this evening. && WI...None. MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for MNZ079-087- 088-095-096. IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for IAZ008>011- 018-019-029-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...DAS LONG TERM....DAS AVIATION...Lawrence  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KPHI 080323 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1123 PM EDT SAT MAY 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN ACROSS OUR REGION MUCH OF THE PAST WEEK WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG CONTINUE TO WORK FURTHER INLAND THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND DELAWARE VALLEY. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE A SHORTER FOG EVENT THAN MOST AS THE SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SCATTER OUT THE FOG. A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS, AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL END BY LATE MORNING. DRY AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AROUND 20-30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS AND A COUPLE SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE TOWARDS DAWN TUESDAY ACROSS THE SRN AREAS...BUT EVEN THERE THE CHCS FOR PRECIP ARE ONLY IN THE SLGT CHC OR VERY LOW CHC RANGE ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THESE PERIODS. THE UPPER AIR PATTER WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT NEXT WEEK. A SFC LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. SOME OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. WE WILL HAVE SLGT CHC OR CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR THE TUE- THU PERIODS ATTM...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE TIME WILL BE RAIN- FREE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY AROUND NORMAL...BUT AN ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO THE MID 70S OVER THE METRO AREAS AND THE DELMARVA REGION. AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE NEXT WEEK. THE GREATEST CHC FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY. WE HAVE UPPER THE POPS TO 50 PCT CHC FOR NOW...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR NEARBY OFFICES. THE UPPER LOW MAY SWIRL ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND...SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER SHOWERY WEEKEND IS POSSIBLE THEN....STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THESE DEVELOPMENTS HOWEVER. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUED ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WERE A BIT MORE VARIABLE FURTHER INLAND. THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW HAD PUSHED SOME LOW CLOUDS BACK ONSHORE. THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS WORKED FURTHER INLAND THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, AS FAR WEST AS KMIV TO KVAY AS OF 03Z. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT TRENDS AND THE N AMERICA RAPID REFRESH ENSEMBLE SYSTEM (NARRE) IFR PROBABILITIES EXPECT THAT THE LOW CLOUDS WILL REACH KPNE AND KTTN BY 06Z. FOR NOW, HAVE NOT MENTIONED LOW CLOUDS AT KPHL AND KILG AS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS LOW CLOUD BANK APPEARS TO BE ERODING AS IT MOVES FURTHER WEST. HOWEVER, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR VERY CLOSELY. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE BETWEEN 09 AND 15Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT, BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY. SUNDAY WILL THEN BE VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS REACHING 20-25 KNOTS, WITH A OCCASIONAL GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS. OUTLOOK... SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED. TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...VFR IN GENERAL. SCT SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY POORER CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ AREAS. && .MARINE... FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE. ONCE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE, THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE. THUS HAVE ISSUED A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NEW JERSEY COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 08 AM EDT. FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND DELAWARE COASTAL WATERS...LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THE FOG REACHING THAT FAR SOUTH, SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. ONCE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WHILE THERE COULD BE ENOUGH OF AN INVERSION TO PREVENT WINDS FROM GUSTING FURTHER OFFSHORE, WINDS WITHIN THE FIRST FEW MILES, AND RIGHT ALONG THE COAST SHOULD GUSTY 25-30 KNOTS. ESPECIALLY FOR DELAWARE BAY AND BAYS AND INLETS ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE, WE'VE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS ON THE OCEAN...MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FT. SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES THIS EVENING WITH MINOR FLOODING UNDERWAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE, DELAWARE BEACHES, AND DELAWARE BAY TONIGHT. WE CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WHERE IT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT, AND HAVE ADDED THE EXTREME UPPER PART OF THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER SOUTH OF THE COMMODORE BARRY BRIDGE AREA. WE HAVE LEFT OUT THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER NORTH OF THE COMMODORE BARRY BRIDGE AREA FOR NOW. THERE MAY BE SOME SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IN THAT AREA WITH TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE, BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. TIDAL LEVELS ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FOR OUR EASTERN SHORE MARYLAND COUNTIES MAY APPROACH AND GET CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD LEVELS, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ012>014- 020>027. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ016. DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DEZ002>004. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR DEZ001. MD...NONE. MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>453. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430- 431-450>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO/O'HARA NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KRUZDLO/ROBERTSON SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON LONG TERM...O'HARA AVIATION...JOHNSON/KRUZDLO/ROBERTSON/O'HARA MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON/O'HARA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KLMK 031032 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 632 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)... Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016 ...Showery and Cooler Through Mid Week... An upper trough with several vort maxes rotating through will dominate the short term forecast period. This will result in a showery and cooler than normal period of weather. Current water vapor imagery shows the next feature dropping into the upper Wabash River Valley at this hour, with some very light showers slowly dropping through central IN. Previous forecast and current hi res models agree that isolated to widely scattered showers will drop into southern IN around daybreak and slowly pivot through our region mainly along and north of I-64 through the day, then into central KY by late afternoon. Moisture is not very deep, so will go with low chances for measurable rain. Under mostly cloudy skies and steady NW surface wind, temperatures will struggle. Expect highs only in the low to mid 60s in many spots. Isolated light rain showers will linger in the Blue Grass region through the evening hours, with a lull in precipitation elsewhere. Will forecast a dry period in the pre-dawn hours, however this will be short-lived ahead of a potent Vort diving into the region for Wednesday. Lows tonight should be in the upper 40s. Anomalous upper low dives toward our region through Wednesday, and will be the focus for numerous rain showers and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. Given mid level lapse rates and very low freezing levels (6-7 K feet), some hail is possible in thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. If a few breaks in the clouds are realized during the afternoon, then potential for a few marginally severe hailers isn't out of the question. In addition, any surface heating will result in better potential to mix into stronger winds aloft in the afternoon. Will forecast gusts up to around 25 mph for now, but deeper mixing could warrant gusts over 30 mph. Again, the limiting factor at this time appears to be cloud cover. Expect highs in the low to mid 60s. .LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)... Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016 Wednesday Night - Thursday... Anomalous closed upper low will be sliding through the region Wednesday night and Thursday, with enough lingering moisture to squeeze out isolated to widely scattered showers in our east. As one would expect with anomalous upper low, temperatures will be well below normal under heavy cloud cover and steady cold advection. Lows Wednesday night should drop into the 40 to 45 range, with highs on Thursday mostly in the mid and upper 50s. Spots near Bowling Green should sneak into the low 60s. Thursday Night - Friday Night... The overall upper pattern slowly slides east to end the week, with closed upper low spinning over the mid Atlantic Coast and upper ridge axis sliding to the central CONUS. This will put the Ohio Valley under enough influence of high pressure to return dry conditions and begin to warm up a bit. Thursday night lows will still be chilly in the low to mid 40s. Friday highs will mostly be in the low 70s under mostly sunny skies and increasing heights/thicknesses. Friday night lows will be slightly milder in the low 50s. Saturday... Upper ridge axis breaks down on Saturday in response to a shortwave moving into the Great Lakes region. The trend with this features is stronger/faster to the point where it could have a minimal impact on the Saturday evening forecast along and north of the Ohio River. Data suggest that enough moisture could pool ahead of a surface frontal boundary sagging into our area to produce isolated to widely scatterd showers or a storm. This tends to be overdone by models a lot of the time, especially when moving into an antecedent dry airmass. That being said, the faster trend is worth noting/watching. Overall, the Saturday forecast will be dry with highs around 80. We'll be watching for a few showers across southern IN by late afternoon and early evening. Saturday Night - Monday... The Ohio Valley will be situated under persistent NW flow aloft between central CONUS ridge axis and New England troughing to end the weekend. The aforementioned frontal boundary will stall over or near our area nearly parallel to the upper flow. With this feature in the area, expect that isolated to scattered showers and a few storms will be possible, mainly each afternoon and evening. Temperatures are always tricky when trying to nail down the exact position of a frontal boundary, but with most of the region expected to be on the warm side, upper 70s and low 80s seem reasonable. Southern IN would have the best shot at mid 70s for highs. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)... Updated at 619 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016 Latest IR imagery and GOES-R MVFR/IFR probabilities show an area of IFR stratus across southwest to central Indiana slowly dropping south into north central Kentucky. This will most likely impact SDF and LEX through the morning hours with low ceilings. There are some visibility restrictions but feel the main aviation challenge is ceilings. Expect this deck to continue for a few hours but slowly lifting as the initial upper level system passes the area. Plan on light west/northwest winds today and mostly VFR conditions this afternoon and evening. Isolated to widely scattered showers are possible but will continue to leave out of TAF. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........BJS Long Term.........BJS Aviation..........ZT  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMTR 020401 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 901 PM PDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS....COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH IMPACTING THE COAST AND INLAND VALLEYS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH CALIFORNIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:01 PM PDT SUNDAY...ACCORDING TO THE EXPERIMENTAL GOES R IFR PROBABILITY SATELLITE IMAGE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE WORKING THEIR WAY UP THE BIG SUR AND SANTA CRUZ COAST AT THIS HOUR. HALF MOON BAY IS ALSO REPORTING REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LOW CLOUDS. THIS SOUTHERLY SURGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD IMPACTING THE COAST AND INLAND VALLEYS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR FORECAST MODEL...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE INLAND VALLEYS NOT LONG AFTER SUN RISE...BUT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH LATE MORNING. THE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOUR IMAGE IS SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA CANADA. THE 0000Z GFS40 AND 1200Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THESE FEATURES AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT SATURDAY. BOTH OF THESE MODELS SLIDE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH TOWARDS CALIFORNIA...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT SPREADING SOUTH WEDNESDAY. INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL UPPER LEVEL AIR OF THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ENTERING ARIZONA...PLACING THE FORECAST AREA IN A GOOD POSITION FOR WRAP AROUND SHOWERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE DOES A REASONABLE JOB WITH THE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS SO NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...AS OF 10:30 AM PDT SUNDAY...DRY OFFSHORE FLOW KEEPING VFR TODAY. THE ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THE FORECAST IS A POSSIBLE SOUTHERLY SURGE LATER TODAY. LATEST NAM AND WRF SHOW A SOUTHERLY SURGE IMPACTING KMRY/KSNS...POSS MAKING IT INTO SF BAY OVERNIGHT. CONF IS MARGINAL. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...VFR BECOMING MVFR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. && .MARINE...AS OF 01:22 PM PDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS NORTH OF POINT REYES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. A MODERATE SWELL WILL MIX WITH A SMALLER LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL THIS WEEK. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...NONE. $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY AVIATION: SIMS MARINE: SIMS VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KGRR 301154 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 754 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 LATEST UPDATE... AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY. COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S THIS WEEKEND RISING TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND GENERATE LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN GOOD SATURATION WHICH WILL OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AT THE SFC. LIGHT RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY 18Z AND GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST. ROUGHLY A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF I-96 AND AROUND A HALF INCH SOUTH OF THERE. SHOWERS FALLING INTO THE DRY AIR TODAY SHOULD PRODUCE SOME WET BULBING AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. A CHILLY DAY IS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA MONDAY AND WE/LL SEE SOME SUNSHINE AND HIGHS AROUND 60. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE COLD FRONT PRESSING SOUTH FROM CANADA ON TUESDAY... BUT CONSENSUS IS THAT MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND MILD WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S. THE MAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IT TURNS COLDER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A DEEP UPR TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE ERN UNITED STATES. BY FRIDAY AN OMEGA PATTERN IS PROGGED ALOFT WITH LARGE UPPER LOWS OVER THE ERN AND WRN U.S. AND A RIDGE IN BETWEEN OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW REGARDING THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPR LOW ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... WITH THE LATEST ECMWF SHOWING IT CLOSE BY OVER THE ERN GRTLKS RGN BUT THE GFS SENDING IT TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC RGN. IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT WE WILL SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING... ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 131 IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 754 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z... THEN RAIN AND LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR REGION: MVFR SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD 20Z OR SO... FOLLOWED BY IFR AFTER 00Z. LIFR POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. FOR THE I-96 CORRIDOR REGION: THE MVFR SHOULD ARRIVE TOWARD 00Z WITH IFR PROBABLY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WHILE THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT WAVE HEIGHTS... THE WIND SPEEDS COULD STILL APPROACH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 22 KTS. && .HYDROLOGY... ISSUED AT 1258 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 RECENT RAINFALLS HAVE RESULTED IN MINOR RISES ON STREAMS. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON MAIN STEM RIVERS ARE NOT LIKELY GIVEN THE LIMITED PRECIPITATION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND MAY KEEP SMALLER STREAMS AND RIVERS ELEVATED... WITH A SMALLER CHANCE FOR ELEVATED MAIN STEM RIVERS. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...04 SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM...MEADE AVIATION...MEADE HYDROLOGY...63 MARINE...04  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KLMK 272259 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 659 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... ...Forecast Update... Issued at 610 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2016 Convection firing up along a residual east/west boundary across central Kentucky has been the interest so far this afternoon and early evening. Environment is characterized by 1000 to 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE with effective bulk shear of 40 to 50 kts. An area of enhanced low level helicity exists as well, which is helping to sustain some of the supercells across west-central KY. As a result, feel there is a short-lived tornado threat and a tornado watch has been posted for portions of the western areas. And further back south/west, we'll have to watch the main line of storms roll through the area later this evening. Hi-res models have a good handle on this coming through with the potential for a damaging wind and hail threat. .SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)... Issued at 312 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2016 As an upper low moves between Omaha and Des Moines tonight and a speed max rounds its base, scattered showers and storms are expected to develop INVOF the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers late this afternoon/early this evening. This convection should then head northeast up the Ohio Valley. Scattered storms will also be possible over the rest of central Kentucky in the warm and unstable sector south of a warm front stretched out along Interstate 64. There has been a lot of rain already today, limiting surface-based instability along and either side of the warm front. The warm front is not expected to move much other than perhaps a slight northward drift. This would bring more unstable air slightly northward despite earlier rains. In short, it will be an evening of monitoring radar and satellite trends to see exactly where new convection sets up to our west/southwest and moves into the area. WBZ heights around 10k feet support hail as the main threat. If the surface remains relatively stable the wind threat may be slightly lessened...but will have to see how the warm front behaves and how much of a break we can get between afternoon convection overhead and incoming convection from the west this evening. There has been torrential rain over a narrow band between Elizabethtown and Mammoth Cave this afternoon, resulting in some minor hydro issues in that area. Additional water problems will be possible this evening under the heaviest rainers, especially in urban centers. Tomorrow the upper low will weaken and advance into the Great Lakes. By afternoon lapse rates and cu rule support sct/bkn cu development. PWATs look quite low and atmospheric cross-section show very little available moisture. Can't rule out pop-up afternoon showers, though, especially from southern Indiana to the Kentucky Blue Grass. Thursday night high pressure will nose in from the northwest and give us a pleasant night with temperatures dropping into the lower and middle 50s. .LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)... Issued at 322 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2016 High pressure to our north will give us a very nice day on Friday with partly cloudy skies and temperatures peaking in the 70s. We then enter into what should be a very wet weekend. Low pressure will lazily move from the Red River Valley Saturday morning to the mid-Atlantic coast by Sunday evening. The Gulf will be wide open and models are progging a healthy low level jet bringing moisture northward. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will be the result. One to three inches of rain over the course of the entire weekend isn't out of the question. Things should then dry out for the first part of the new work week before the next system begins to approach by mid-week. High temperatures throughout the long term will be in the 70s, although some locations may not make it out of the 60s in southern Indiana on Saturday. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)... Updated at 658 PM EDT Wed Apr 27 2016 A line of intense storms will impact BWG by 00z, SDF closer to 01- 02z, and LEX by around 03-04z. SDF stands the greatest chance of seeing a harder hit with strong to severe winds, frequent CG lightning and torrential rain for 1 to 2 hours. In the wake of this complex of storms, expect plenty of low level moisture and combined with nighttime cooling, there's a chance of IFR to low MVFR ceilings developing by 06z or so, holding through dawn or so. Guidance hits the IFR probabilities the hardest at SDF/LEX. For Thursday, some broken MVFR ceilings likely in the morning but conditions should begin to improve with daytime heating and some drier air. Some gusty winds will develop in the late morning and afternoon. Chances for showers/storms are significantly less so will hold off mentioning anything in the TAF right now. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Update.........ZT Short Term.....13 Long Term......13 Aviation.......ZT  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KJKL 230550 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 150 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2016 LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH. SEVERAL BREAKS CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...SUGGESTING A NON-UNIFORM PATTERN TO THE CLOUD COVER. IF SKIES CAN REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A MAJORITY OF TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN FOG THICKNESS AND COVERAGE AND NEED TO BEEF UP WORDING IN THE FORECAST. FOR NOW...PATCHY FOG REMAINS IN PLAY PENDING EVOLUTION OF INCOMING STRATUS. UPDATE ISSUED AT 1036 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY POSE AN INTERESTING FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE NIGHT AS ALL THIS ACTIVITY HAS EXITED AND WHILE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS STILL PASSING THROUGH TO THE NORTH...NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE SECOND ISSUE IS CONCERNING THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO THE NORTHWEST. AT THE CURRENT TIME...THIS IS SLOW TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE CONCERN IS THAT IF THERE ARE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WITH THE RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY...THE FOG WILL BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE AND EVEN DENSE IN SOME AREAS. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE ZFP BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE REEVALUATED IF THE CLOUD COVER DOES NOT SET UP TONIGHT. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT AND THE HWO WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE THUNDER. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THREE SEPARATE LINES/AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY AND HAS PRODUCED PEA AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THE SECOND LINE IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. FINALLY...THE THIRD AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND IS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL KY/SOUTHWEST OH ATTM. THESE THREE ROUNDS OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS SHOULD WANE A BIT AFTER SUNSET. THROUGH THIS EVENING...HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG STORM. RAIN SHOULD EXIT TO OUR EAST BY 06Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS INTO WEST VIRGINIA. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY...HELPING TO CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS AND BRING A RETURN OF SUNSHINE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS BOTH NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR THE 70 DEGREE MARK. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 DRY WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF KY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM THE TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST NEXT WEEK...WITH THE CHANCES FOR STRONGER STORMS BEING OVER THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SAT APR 23 2016 MAIN ISSUE THIS CYCLE WILL BE LOW STRATUS APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. HAVE SEEN SEVERAL BREAKS IN THIS...SUGGESTING NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE PERSISTENT LOWERING CEILINGS. MVFR CEILINGS LOOK LIKE A DECENT BET FOR ALL SITES AT SOME POINT. FOG AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IN LIEU OF LOWERING CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS CLOUD COVER SLOWLY DECREASES THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GUSEMAN SHORT TERM...JVM LONG TERM...SBH AVIATION...GUSEMAN  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KBOX 230123 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 923 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT OVER NEW YORK CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS FOR LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER. A FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED SHOWERS TO THE REGION. DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE IN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THEN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO OUR AREA THIS UPCOMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... 925 PM UPDATE... LAST OF CONVECTION HOLDING ON FOR DEAR LIFE ACROSS NORTHERN CT BUT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LEFT TO KEEP IT GOING BUT AIRMASS FARTHER TO N AND E IS LESS FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN IT INTO MA/RI. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS WAS LIFTING NE FROM MID ATLANTIC...AS WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG COLD FRONT. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO BRING BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS FARTHER INTO INTERIOR...SO ADJUSTED POPS OVERNIGHT TO REFLECT THIS TREND. MOST OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS CT...RI AND S CENTRAL/SE MA. LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG S COAST TONIGHT. GOES-E EXPERIMENTAL IFR PROBABILITIES SHOW NORTHERN EDGE SKIRTING S COAST AND BUZZARDS BAY. THIS MAY MAKE A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD PROGRESS BUT WITH MORE OF A SW FLOW IT SHOULD STAY S OF PROVIDENCE AND PLYMOUTH OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN UPPER 40S TO MID 50S LOOK GOOD. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY AND PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. LEFTOVER SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER RI/SOUTHEAST MASS...SHOULD MOVE OFF WITH THE TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES. MIXING IS FORECAST TO 900 MB...POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS AT THAT HEIGHT WOULD SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE 60S. WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER WILL BE 15-20 KNOTS...WHICH MAY BE MIXED TO THE SURFACE IN GUSTS. AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN. NOT CLEAR WHETHER IT WILL DIMINISH ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SURFACE AIR TO DECOUPLE AND ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S...WHICH WOULD BE QUITE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY IF MINS REACHED THAT LOW. WE WILL ALLOW A LIGHT NORTH WIND OVERNIGHT AND KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING MOST PLACES. THE BEST CHANCE OF DECOUPLING AND RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN MASS...WHERE THERE WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE OF DIPPING BELOW 30. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS...SUCH COOLING MAY BE ABLE TO EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... OVERVIEW... LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY THIS WEEKEND WILL SHIFT E AS OVERALL NORTH AMERICAN UPPER LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE. BROAD H5 VORTEX ELONGATES FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE INTO LABRADOR AND NEWFOUNDLAND BY SUNDAY...WITH THE BASE OF THE VORTEX KEEPING A FAST W-NW UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AND...AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW...WILL SEE MUCH NEEDED RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. THEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND TRACK AS A QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD APPROACH THE REGION OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE END OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. DETAILS... SUNDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY. ANTICIPATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...THOUGH THE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA MAY ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON CIRRUS AND MID DECK CLOUDS. SEA BREEZES ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF N NY STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS N MA. THE FRONT LOOKS TO SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW DURING MONDAY. CONTINUE TO EXPECT A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRES MOVE ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WILL ALSO TEND TO SLOW THE FRONT DOWN. STARTING TO SEE A BIT MORE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETTING UP AS THE FRONT CROSSES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL. FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY... COOLER AIR WORKS IN AS WINDS SHIFT TO N AND NE. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS ON MONDAY...BUT WILL FALL DOWN TO SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF OUR AREA DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD. HAVE VERY LOW CHANCE POPS TO START TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT. FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH HIGH PRES ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FORECAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. A LOT OF QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE TIMING OF A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AT THIS POINT HAVE DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF WED NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS THU INTO FRI. && .AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... 00Z UPDATE...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING...WITH AN ISOLATED T-STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY AREA IN MA AND NORTHERN CT. SOME SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR. ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING...WITH IFR DEVELOPING DUE TO MARINE STRATUS. OVERNIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT VFR CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHILE SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WILL LOWER TO IFR OR LIFR IN SHOWERS AND DEVELOPING FOG. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MVFR CIGS CT VALLEY AREA IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY IN THE WEST. ELSEWHERE... CIGS/VSBYS MVFR TO START...EXCEPT IFR CAPE/ISLANDS...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR DURING THE DAY. NORTH WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING...WITH MVFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 06Z. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER WELL INTO SATURDAY. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER...BRIEF LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. ALSO A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING SATURDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. MAY SEE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MOVE INTO NORTHERN AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND N OF THE MASS PIKE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM N-S TUE NIGHT...THOUGH TIMING IS IN QUESTION. WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS. THE PERSISTENT FLOW WILL BUILD SEAS A LITTLE WITH 5 FOOT HEIGHTS ON THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THOSE WATERS. AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT WHICH MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...RESULTING IN POOR VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL SHIFT LATER AT NIGHT AND COME FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY AND 20 TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BE 3-4 FEET SATURDAY. HEIGHTS OF 4-6 FEET POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ON SOME OF THE WATERS. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. N WINDS VEERING TO THE SE ON SUNDAY. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING...MAINLY ALONG THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY. MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. MAY SEE VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES FROM N TO S ACROSS THE WATERS. S WINDS BECOME N DURING MON NIGHT/TUE. THEN THE N WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KT DURING TUE. SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND MAY REACH TO E OF CAPE COD DURING TUESDAY. SHOULD HAVE SUBSIDING SEAS TUESDAY NIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG. WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. && .FIRE WEATHER... SATURDAY...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SE MA/E RI SATURDAY MORNING WITH N-NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. THESE SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL TAKE OVER SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS USHERING LOWERING DEWPOINTS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE FROM 25 TO 40 PERCENT NORTH AND WEST OF I-95 AND 40 TO 60 PERCENT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT N WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH WILL BECOME SW DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SEA BREEZES PROBABLE. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT 35 TO 45 PERCENT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SLOW MOVING FRONT COULD BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE RAIN IS MONDAY AFTERNOON THRU TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 0.5 TO AROUND 1.0 INCH OF RAINFALL. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ255-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WTB/NMB NEAR TERM...JWD SHORT TERM...WTB LONG TERM...NMB AVIATION...WTB/NMB MARINE...WTB/NMB FIRE WEATHER...NMB/WTB  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KMLB 221843 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 243 PM EDT FRI APR 22 2016 .DISCUSSION... ...INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES LATE TODAY WITH ISOLD-SCT STORMS... ...TURNING DRY FROM LATE SAT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK... CURRENT-TONIGHT...CAPE WIND PROFILERS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE THROUGH AROUND 6.5KFT. ABOVE THIS LEVEL WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 10.0KFT. WIND SPEEDS RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KTS IN THIS COLUMN. MORNING KXMR SOUNDING STILL RELATIVELY DRY WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 0.94 INCHES AND THIS IS WELL BELOW WHAT THE GFS FORECASTS FOR AROUND 12Z ~1.40 INCHES. NEXRAD CURRENTLY SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. STEERING FLOW THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE UNIFORMLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LOCAL WRF-ARW/HRRR MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASING THRU LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SCT- NMRS SHRA'S/ISOLD-SCT TSRA'S WILL PUSH OFF OF THE EAST COAST LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING/DYNAMICS REMAIN FAIRLY POOR...THOUGH 500MB TEMPS AT -11C/-12C SUGGEST WE CAN OBTAIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ALSO THANKS IN PART TO INCREASING MOISTURE...SURFACE HEATING AND EVENTUAL PLENTIFUL BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE MOST ACTIVE AND PUSH SCT CONVECTION INTO ECFL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE STEERING COMPONENT WILL TAKE ACTIVITY OFF OF THE EAST COAST WHERE MARINERS WILL NEED TO STAY VIGILANT FOR APPROACHING STORMS. MAIN THREATS REMAIN FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 50 MPH. HEAVIEST CONCENTRATION EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA WITH ACTIVITY DECREASING FROM AROUND LATE EVENING AS SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OFF OF THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. ALL OF THIS CONVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH THAT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA SAT MORNING. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH MINS IN THE M60S. WINDS DIMINISHING TO MAINLY LIGHT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT VEERING TO THE SW/WSW. SAT...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH TAIL-END APPENDAGE DRAGGING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 1 INCH AREAWIDE AS DRIER AIR SWEEPS INTO THE REGION. FAIRLY DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WITH LOCAL MODELS TRYING TO SQUEEZE OUT A SCHC FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MAINLY EAST OF A LEESBURG...KISSIMMEE...BASINGER LINE. STILL FAIRLY COOL IN THE MID-LEVELS SO CANNOT DISCOUNT THIS ENTIRELY. HIGHS STILL FORECAST TO REACH M80S MOST PLACES WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST. SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY OVER NRN-CTRL FL WILL SLIDE ESE OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLC...WITH WINDS SHIFTING QUICKLY TO N-NE AND INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH. MINIMAL COOLING IN SUNDAY MAX TEMPS INDICATED IN MODEL GUIDANCE...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER AIR MASS WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER. MINS IN THE L-M60S SAT NIGHT WILL WARM TO THE L80S ALONG THE COAST AND M-U80S INLAND ON SUN. M-U60S FOR MINS SUN NIGHT IN ONSHORE FLOW. MON-FRI (PREV)...SFC HIGH NEAR THE MID ATLC TO START THE WEEK WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO MID WEEK WITH LOW LVL FLOW VEERING FROM THE E TO SE. FOR THU INTO FRIDAY...THE RIDGE WILL ELONGATE NORTH OF THE AND RETURN LOW LVL FLOW TO THE EAST. FLAT MID LVL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE GULF LATE IN THE WEEK. OVERALL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH 00Z GFS MODEL HINTS THAT A FEW DAYS THIS WEEK COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE EAST COAST BREEZE MOVES INLAND EACH DAY. 00Z ECM APPEARS DRIER SO WILL NOT INSERT ANY LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S CSTL TO THE MID 80S INTERIOR FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION...SE/S WINDS ALONG THE COAST WITH S/SSW WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR. INCREASING CLOUD THICKNESS WITH LOWERING BASES AS THE ATMOSPHERE HEATS/MOISTENS THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON THROUGH VARIOUS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. THIS WILL PROMOTE SCT-NMRS SHRA'S/ISOLD-SCT TSRA'S ESPECIALLY LATE DAY/EVENING. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL PUSH BACK LATE DAY STORMS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. LIGHT WINDS VEER TONIGHT TO SW/WSW. FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WITH LIGHTNING... DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS THE THREATS. && .MARINE...TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF IT INCREASING MOISTURE WITH SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER THE GULF STREAM THIS MORNING. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE OFF OF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS. MARINERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY SHOULD THREATENING WEATHER APPROACH. WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF OF STORMS. WILL CONTINUE CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS FOR OFFSHORE LEGS WHERE SEAS ARE BUILDING 5-6 FT. SEAS 4-5 FT NEAR SHORE. LIGHT MORNING SSW WINDS WILL BACK TO SSE/SE WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 15-17 KTS OVER THE OPEN ATLC AND 10-15 KTS NEAR THE COAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING/ OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO SW/WSW IN RESPONSE TO THE BOUNDARY. A PERIOD TONIGHT OF WINDS OF 15-20 KTS IS LIKELY OFFSHORE AND 15 KTS CLOSER TOWARDS THE COAST. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS REMAINING CHOPPY. SAT...WSW/W WINDS AROUND 15 KTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AOB 10 KTS AS THE PGRAD RELAXES FOLLOWING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE. ONLY A SCHC FOR A SHOWER ON THIS DAY. SEAS 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE. SUN-WED...IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL NRLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE NE ON SUNDAY...ONSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND THEN WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN/VEER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE ERN CONUS SURFACE HIGH DROPS SE OVER THE ATLC...AND IT'S RIDGE AXIS SETTLED OVER ECFL. SEAS OF 3-4FT ON SUN WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 3FT (OR 2-3FT) MON-WED. && .FIRE WEATHER...ON SAT...MIN RHS TO 40-45 PCT OVER THE INTERIOR WITH W WINDS TO 10-15 MPH. FOR SUNDAY...MIN RHS 38-42 PCT FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WITH WINDS BECOMING NE 10-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 64 83 65 81 / 60 20 10 0 MCO 65 87 64 87 / 50 10 0 10 MLB 67 85 66 82 / 60 20 10 10 VRB 66 84 65 83 / 60 20 10 10 LEE 66 84 63 86 / 40 10 0 10 SFB 65 86 64 85 / 50 20 10 10 ORL 66 85 64 85 / 50 10 0 10 FPR 65 85 64 83 / 60 20 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK67 PAJK 211349 AFDAJK SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK 549 AM AKDT THU APR 21 2016 .SHORT TERM...ANOTHER RATHER QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. ABOUT THE ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS MORNING AND YESTERDAY MORNING IS THERE IS MORE HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AROUND WITH MORE STREAMING IN FROM THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN SOME AREAS OF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS MORNING DUE TO THE THIN NATURE OF THE CLOUDS IN THAT REGION. MEANWHILE TEMPS IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE HAVE REMAINED IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD THICKNESS OVER THAT AREA. THE TODAY INTO TONIGHT PERIOD WILL MAINLY FEATURE TWO THINGS, INCREASING CLOUDS AND INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN. THIS IS COURTESY OF A WEAK TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND, THAT WILL BE MOVING NW OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING OVER THE PANHANDLE AND RAIN WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON (THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SPRINKLES THIS MORNING). THE RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY LATE TONIGHT. HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE COAST MOUNTAINS AS THE FARTHER WEST YOU GET THE MORE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL DRY THINGS OUT AND THE BEST FORCING WILL BE FARTHER INLAND. AS A RESULT, LIKELY POPS ARE SPREAD OVER HYDER AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO JUNEAU, AND GUSTAVUS BY LATE TONIGHT. CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS APPEAR ELSEWHERE. RAINFALL AMOUNT ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THEN A QUARTER INCH AS THE SYSTEM IS WEAK WITH LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. AS FOR WINDS, THE HIGHEST IS IN THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS AS A NORTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT IS CREATING SOME BREEZY WINDS. A NORTHERLY OF 20 KT HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN LYNN CANAL AND STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND AN EASTERLY OF 25 KT IS BLOWING IN CROSS SOUND RIGHT NOW. OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT WINDS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KT EVEN WITH THE WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE WAS SOME VARIATION ON WHEN AND WHERE THE RAIN WOULD START UP. DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE NAM AND SOME GFS FOR UPDATES. MOST CHANGES WERE LOCAL EFFECT FROM SEA BREEZES. THOUGH I DID INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AS THE WEAK TROUGH LOOKS TO HOLD TOGETHER RATHER WELL AS IT GET INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE. .LONG TERM...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. STILL SOME MODEL SPREAD ON LOW TRACK BUT LESS THAN IT WAS 24 HRS AGO. BASED ON GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND CANADIAN...WAS USING MAINLY 00Z GFS TO HANDLE THIS SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR FRI THROUGH SAT...WILL HAVE A WEAK TROF MOVE N ACROSS THE AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT MOVING IN FOR SAT. THESE SYSTEMS WILL INCREASE PRECIP THREAT OVER THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF AND SECOND WRAP OF FRONT MOVES IN AHEAD OF THE LOW. HAVE RAISED WINDS UP TO 30 KT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO RAISE THEM FURTHER TO GALES IF THE GFS STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM IS CORRECT. MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP OVER THE MAIN PART OF THE PANHANDLE WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA LATER SAT NIGHT AND SUN. AFTER SUN...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER OCCLUDED FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAST IT MOVES IN AND WHETHER IT MAKES IT ALL THE WAY TO THE INNER CHANNELS. BASICALLY KEPT THE LATE SUN NIGHT ONWARD FORECAST AS IS...WITH LOWEST POPS OVER THE MORE ERN AREAS. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ EAL/RWT VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMTR 040320 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 820 PM PDT SUN APR 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A SUBSTANTIAL MID WEEK WARM UP AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS SET UP AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLING ON THURSDAY. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:19 PM PDT SUNDAY...SKIES CLEARED OUT NICELY THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF SUNSHINE. THE FINAL LOW LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE DID SHOW LOW CLOUDS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE HALFMOON BAY AREA AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE GOES-E MVFR PROBABILITY IMAGE IS SHOWING LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH THE CLOUDS BACK OVER THE COAST AND INLAND VALLEY AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE 1800Z GFS40 AND 1200Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN AND REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. BOTH MODELS BEGIN TO BUILD A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 585DM BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A THERMAL TROUGH BUILDS OVER CALIFORNIA. THE LIGHT OFFSHORE SURFACE WINDS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPERATURES TO REACH 17 TO 19 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH TRANSLATES INTO WIDE SPREAD 80S ALONG THE COAST AND EVEN 90S FOR THE INLAND AREAS. THE MID WEEK HOT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT STICK AROUND LONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...AS OF 4:45 PM PDT SUNDAY...STRATUS HAS MIXED OUT FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON BUT APPROACHING TROUGH HAS INCREASED THE ONSHORE FLOW AND STRATUS COULD QUICKLY SPREAD BACK IN. CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR EARLY RETURN OF STRATUS INTO THE SFO BAY AREA AT AROUND 04Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS IT COULD COME IN LATER. VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS AFTER 04Z. WEST WINDS SUSTAINED 15-20 KNOTS THROUGH 04Z. SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS AFTER 02Z AT MRY AND 04Z AT SNS. && .BEACHES...AS OF 3:00 PM PDT SUNDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE MODERATE TO HIGH ENERGY MIXED SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS. THESE ENERGETIC WAVES WILL SUPPORT STRONG RIP CURRENTS AT LOCAL BEACHES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE SHORE BREAK AT SOME BEACHES SUCH AS TWIN LAKES BEACH IN SANTA CRUZ. MIXED SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY THIS EVENING. && .MARINE...AS OF 2:23 PM PDT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL EASE MIDWEEK AS THE GRADIENT DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST. BY LATE IN THE WEEK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION WITH A WET PATTERN EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TNGT...SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM FROM 3 AM SCA...PT ARENA TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM FROM 3 AM SCA...SF BAY UNTIL 9 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY AVIATION: W PI MARINE: CW VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMTR 031651 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 951 AM PDT SUN APR 3 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A DRY UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND TO OUR NORTH LATE TODAY...BUT THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER OTHER THAN SLIGHT COOLING TODAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY WITH RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY. COOLING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:51 AM PDT SUNDAY...THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENED OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW APPROACHING 2000 FEET DEEP PER THE FORT ORD PROFILER DATA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS SOLIDLY FILLING INLAND VALLEYS. GOES CLOUD THICKNESS ESTIMATES INDICATE THICK LAYER OF CLOUD ALONG THE MONTEREY BAY...ON THE ORDER OF 2000-2600 FEET...WHICH WOULD INDICATE A SLOW CLEARING TODAY. COASTAL TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE SLOW TO WARM TODAY GIVEN THE ONSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THIS MORNING WITH 1.6 MB FROM SFO TO SAC...AND DUE TO LONGER CLOUD COVER. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATER TODAY...BUT MODELS STILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR DISTRICT. ABOUT THE ONLY IMPACT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON OUR WEATHER IS TO DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER TODAY...WITH THE RESULT BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH WILL WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST. SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS INCREASING NORTHERLY GRADIENTS RESULT IN DECREASED MARINE AIR INFLUENCE. THE WARMING TREND THAT WILL START SLOWLY ON MONDAY WILL PICK UP STEAM ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS MORE STRONGLY NEAR THE WEST COAST AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN...TURNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TOWARDS OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT TEN DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE...WITH THE GREATEST WARMING EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WHEN OFFSHORE FLOW IS THE STRONGEST. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 80S AND LOWER 90S ARE FORECAST. BECAUSE THIS WILL BE THE FIRST HEAT EVENT OF THE SEASON...THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE GREATER STRESS THAN MIGHT OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED. THIS UPCOMING HEAT EVENT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COOLING WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW WEST OF BAJA BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND A SECOND SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THESE TWO SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO MERGE...UNDERCUT THE WEST COAST RIDGE...AND MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS MAY BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT...AND INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTH OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES POINT CONCEPTION. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS THIS LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...BUT MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AFTER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...AS OF 4:39 AM PDT SUNDAY...IFR CIGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH AREAS IFR CIGS INLAND. CLEARING WILL BE GRADUAL DURING MID-LATE MORNING. MARINE INVERSIONS ARE BASED NEAR 1500 FEET THIS MORNING. VICINITY OF KSFO...IFR CIG PARTIALLY CLEARING TO SCT CLOUDS 18Z TODAY. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING WESTERLY SUSTAINED 15-20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO. MONTEREY BAY TERMINALS...IFR CIGS PARTIALLY CLEARING TO SCT CLOUDS 17Z-18Z TODAY. MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS TODAY. && .BEACHES...AS OF 4:33 AM PDT SUNDAY...A LOW AMPLITUDE MODERATE TO HIGH ENERGY MIXED SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY. THESE ENERGETIC WAVES WILL SUPPORT STRONG RIP CURRENTS AT LOCAL BEACHES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE SHORE BREAK AT SOME BEACHES SUCH AS TWIN LAKES BEACH IN SANTA CRUZ. MIXED SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY THIS EVENING. && .MARINE...AS OF 3:08 AM PDT SUNDAY...A MIXED LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BUILD OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXTEND INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL HAVE MOVED EAST AND BE LOCATED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP NEARLY ONE THOUSAND MILES OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THURSDAY THEN THE LOW WILL APPROACH CALIFORNIA VERY LATE IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TDAY...SCA...SF BAY FROM 2 PM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS AVIATION: CANEPA MARINE: CANEPA VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 251056 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 256 AM AKDT FRI MAR 25 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH DAY 5. CURRENT RUNS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE BY NUDGING TO A BLEND OF THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...WEAK RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TODAY AND BE OVER THE YUKON BY SATURDAY MORNING. LONG WAVE TROUGH OUT WEST WITH A 495 DAM CENTER NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND...A 524 DAM CENTER OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND...AND A 522 DAM CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL ALASKA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THE UPPER HALF OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST...WHILE THE LOWER HALF FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND SOUTH MOVES RAPIDLY EAST OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY LATE TONIGHT AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE NORTHERN HALF WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE LOW 400 NM NORTHEAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND AND THE SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE BERING STRAIT TO ST MATTHEW ISLAND...THEN OVER THE WEST COAST SATURDAY EVENING...AND THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST AND MIDDLE YUKON BY SUNDAY MORNING. A 512 DAM LOW 600 NM SOUTH OF KAMCHATKA WILL MOVE TO 300 NM SOUTH OF ADAK BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN DIVES SOUTH. AT 850 HPA...WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN WARMING WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST. TEMPERATURES IN THE TANANA VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST INTERIOR WILL RISE TO AROUND ZERO CELSIUS BY TUESDAY AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SURFACE...WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ALCAN WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AROUND A 996 MB CENTER SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA...A 999 MB LOW OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS...WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO A 999 MB LOW OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...AND TROUGHING EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO AMBLER...THEN EAST OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE. THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES EAST AND THIS EVENING WILL HAVE MULTIPLE CENTERS OVER THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY...BETHEL...THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...THE UPPER PORCUPINE...AND SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. A BROAD TROUGH ALSO REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC WITH A WEAK RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE ARCTIC COAST. BY SATURDAY MORNING THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST WITH RIDGING MOVING OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND CHUKCHI SEA. SATELLITE...THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS AT 25/0745Z SHOWS MOST OF THE STRATUS OVER THE ARCTIC IS MVFR...BUT THERE ARE PATCHES OF LIFR NEAR DEADHORSE AND THE WESTERN ARCTIC PLAIN. STRATUS WITH THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND EASTERN BERING SEA IS MAINLY MVFR AS WELL. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...PLENTY OF STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE. EXPECT SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE ARCTIC AND THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TODAY. EXPECT SOME FLURRIES OR EVEN PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE AREA THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MARCHES EAST. SOME HEAVIER SNOW IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE COULD BRING AROUND 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW. MAINLY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL TURN TO NORTHEAST LATER TODAY ALONG THE COAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. INLAND AND BROOKS RANGE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 20 MPH. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION WILL ALL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE NULATO HILLS TODAY...WITH SOME HEAVIER SNOW NORTH OF AMBLER OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE. WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 215 AND 216...AND ISSUE A NEW ONE FOR ZONE 217 NORTH OF AMBLER. SNOW OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA EAST OF DEERING WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. WINDS INLAND WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH WINDS ALONG THE COAST BECOMING NORTH AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN START WARMING. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY...BUT EXPECT THE WARM TEMPERATURES TO LAST FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE THEY START COOLING. SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW WEST OF MANLEY HOT SPRINGS AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS TODAY...THEN SOME SNOW TONIGHT WEST OF A LINE FROM BETTLES TO NENANA TO HEALY. ALSO SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE ALASKA RANGE. SATURDAY LOOKS A BIT TRICKIER WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING MIXING WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF LIVENGOOD AND EAST OF MINTO. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE EAST TODAY...THEN TURNING FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND AT 5 TO 15 MPH...EXCEPT SOUTH WINDS PICKING UP THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES TO 25 TO 40 MPH. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ215-AKZ216-AKZ217. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220. && $$ SDB MAR 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 241051 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 251 AM AKDT THU MAR 24 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...SIMILAR SOLUTIONS THROUGH DAY 5 BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES START SHOWING UP. CURRENT RUNS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST DATABASE BY NUDGING TO A BLEND OF THE CURRENT SOLUTIONS AND NUDGING THE TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND YESTERDAYS HIGHS IN THE INTERIOR. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...WEAK RIDGE WITH 537 DAM CENTER OVER SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND 539 DAM HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL YUKON TERRITORY WILL MERGE INTO A MORE NORTH SOUTH ORIENTATIONS WITH A 542 DAM CENTER OVER CORDOVA BY AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK EAST AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS IN AND EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ARCTIC TO THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ALCAN FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH WILL HAVE A 498 DAM CENTER NORTHWEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND...A 524 DAM CENTER OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...AND A 521 DAM CENTER SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER HALF OF THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AS THE LOWER HALF SWINGS EAST FRIDAY WITH THE CENTER TO THE SOUTH MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF KODIAK ISLAND AT 524 DAM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER HALF OF THE TROUGH WILL ABSORB SOME ENERGY AND SWING EAST OVER THE BERING STRAIT SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY MOVING INTO CANADA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BEHIND THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE...THEN BUILDS NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR BEHIND THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE. AT 850 HPA...SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A BIT THROUGH SUNDAY. COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA AND ARCTIC COAST. SURFACE...BENIGN FLOW OVER THE STATE WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ALCAN BORDER AND ARCTIC COAST AND WEAK TROUGHING OVER BRISTOL BAY AND EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON TODAY. TROUGHING WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT AS IT GETS SOME REINFORCEMENT ALOFT AND A 998 MB LOW DEVELOPS OVER NUNIVAK ISLAND BY FRIDAY MORNING...MOVING NORTH TO THE UPPER KOBUK BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN EAST OVER THE UPPER PORCUPINE RIVER BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE YUKON BY SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAK 1008 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF BARROW THIS MORNING AND MOVE NORTHEAST. A RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ARCTIC SATURDAY. SATELLITE...SPORT LEO NPP VIIRS 24 HR MICROPHYSICS PRODUCT AT 24/0839Z SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT BAND OF STRATUS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST BERING SEA THROUGH THE STRAIT...OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA...THE NORTHWEST COAST AND WESTERN ARCTIC PLAIN AND THE CENTRAL ARCTIC COAST WEST OF BARTER ISLAND. AREA HAS NOT MOVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. ALSO SHOWS STRATUS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. THE GOES MVFR/IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS AT 24/0845Z SHOWS MOST OF THE STRATUS OVER THE ARCTIC IS MVFR...BUT THERE ARE PATCHES OF LIFR NEAR DEADHORSE AND THE WESTERN ARCTIC PLAIN. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WITH THE WEAK LOW DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE TODAY AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND BROOKS RANGE DO NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE. STRATUS...SOME FLURRIES...AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST. WINDS PRIMARILY FROM THE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. THEN SWITCH AROUND TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME SNOW TO SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND TO THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES COOLING A BIT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CHUKCHI SEA AND ARCTIC COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF PRECIPITATION THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOSTLY SNOW AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO THE LOWER YUKON DELTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON AND EASTERN NORTON SOUND THIS EVENING...THEN SPREADS OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND...THE EASTERN SEWARD PENINSULA...AND THE UPPER KOBUK BY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN TAPER OFF AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES IN THE NULATO HILLS...AND NORTH OF AMBLER IN THE UPPER KOBUK CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES IN MOST OF THE OTHER AREAS THAT GET SNOW. WILL BE ISSUING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 215...216...AND 217. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS INLAND WITH NORTH WINDS IN THE COASTAL AREAS AT 10 TO 25 MPH...EXCEPT TO 35 MPH ON THE BERING STRAIT COAST. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY...THEN COOLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE IT WARMS UP AGAIN. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WEST OF NENANA FRIDAY EVENING...AND INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY LATE SATURDAY. HEAVIEST SNOW IN THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AND THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...BUT WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO BEFORE DECIDING IF IT WARRANTS ADVISORIES. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE EAST THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TURNING FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND...EXCEPT SOUTH WINDS PICKING UP THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES TO 25 TO 40 MPH. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ215-AKZ216. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220. && $$ SDB MAR 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KBOU 211037 CCA AFDBOU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 354 AM MDT MON MAR 21 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 21 2016 UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS...LOW BNDRY LAYER RH VALUES AND GUSTY W-NWLY SFC WINDS BENEATH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ELEVATE THE RANGELAND FIRE DANGER TO HIGH/VERY HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SFC/850 MB WIND SPEEDS IN THE 12-20KT RANGE AND PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS AFTER 18Z. FURTHERMORE MODEL 700MB TEMPS OVER THIS SAME AREA IN THE 4.5-5 DEG RANGE...EQUATING TO MAX TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S OUT THERE. FURTHERMORE...THIS SAME AREA MISSED OUT ON THE SNOW FROM THE LAST SNOW MAKER A COUPLE DAYS AGO. SO FINE FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY OUT THERE. THEREFORE...A RED FLAG WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT TODAY FOR LOGAN...SEDGWICK...PHILLIPS AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES. THESE CRITICAL RANGELAND FIRE CNDTNS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A DROP OFF IN WIND SPEEDS. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LEE SLOPE MTN WAVE RESULTING IN PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOULD SEE VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUD THICKNESS AS WELL AS PERIODS OF SUNSHINE. EVEN WITH THE OVERLYING CLOUD COVER...SHOULD SEE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK TODAY WITH THE ADIABATIC EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE FRONT RANGE. DON/T SEE ANY RECORD BEING BROKEN TODAY. FOR INSTANCE RECORD HIGH AT DENVER IS 80. GOING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN THE METRO AREA. THAT/S STILL QUITE WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXCLUDING THE GUSTY WLY WINDS ACRS THE NORTHEAST CORNER AND OVER HIGHER PORTIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE WHERE GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WINDS ELSEWHERE NOT AS STRONG EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR THE BURST OF WLY WINDS THAT MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW CROSSING THE I-25 CORRIDOR/DEN METRO AREA AROUND 21Z TODAY. COULD SEE GUSTS AROUND 20KTS WITH THIS WLY WIND BURST. TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY MILD TEMPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH A CONTINUATION OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INTERMITTENT MTN WAVE CLOUDINESS. GUSTY WLY WINDS ALSO A GOOD BET ABOVE TIMBERLINE AND EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MTN WAVE IN PLACE. OVERNIGHT...SHOULD ALSO SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE DAY... BUT NO PRECIP YET...WITH STEERING WINDS TURNING SWLY IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACRS THE GREAT BASIN. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 21 2016 MAIN CONCERN THIS WEEK WILL BE FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ON THE PLAINS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE STORM FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. INITIALLY ON TUESDAY...ITS THE WARM BEFORE THE STORM. RIDGING ALOFT SHIFTS EAST OF COLORADO AS STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO. TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS WILL AGAIN BE AROUND 70 DEGREES BUT WITH SOME INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE TROF OVER COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS FAR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME POSITIONING DIFFERENCES WITH THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION THE FURTHEST SOUTH WHILE NAM AND GFS ARE FURTHER NORTH. FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND WINDS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF COLORADO. FURTHER WEST...STRONGER NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY LESSEN SNOW POTENTIAL OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR. WITH THE INITIAL WARM ATMOSPHERE...MAINLY RAIN AND SNOW MIX TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ALL SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY LOOKS LIKE A 4-8 INCH SNOWFALL ON THE PLAINS BUT WITH DAYTIME AND SPRING WARMTH SNOW COLLECTION COULD BE REDUCED. CERTAINLY WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR AND POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. SINCE MAIN SNOW IMPACT WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AND 5TH PERIOD IN FORECAST WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HILITES AT THIS TIME BUT WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER TO EVENT. THE STORM WILL BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE SO NO PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW LOOKS LIKELY. A BREAK IN THE ACTION ON THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY AND WARMER BEFORE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DROPS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE VARIED SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 21 2016 VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS BENEATH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SLY WINDS EARLY TO MID MORNING SHOULD TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY COMPONENT BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SHORT PERIOD OF GUSTY WLY WINDS AROUND 21Z WITH PEAK GUSTS IN THE 18-25KT RANGE. THEN A RETURN TO A LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DRAINAGE FLOW WITH NIGHT FALL. IN ADDITION...MTN WAVE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MTN WAVE CLOUDINESS WITH THE BASE OF LENTICULAR CLOUDS ROUGHLY 10-12 THSND FT AGL. && .FIRE WEATHER... ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT MON MAR 21 2016 A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR LOGAN...SEDGWICK...PHILLIPS AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES/FIRE WEATHER ZONES 248-251/ FROM 1200-1800 HRS MDT TODAY. COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS...LOW SFC RELATIVE HUMIDITY...GUSTY W-NWLY SFC WINDS AND DRY FINE FUELS WILL ELEVATE THE RANGELAND FIRE DANGER TO HIGH TO VERY HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE EYE- LEVEL WIND SPEEDS IN THE 12-18KT RANGE AND PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 25KTS AFTER 18Z. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S IN THIS AREA. THIS SAME AREA MISSED OUT ON THE RECENT SNOWFALL. SO FINE FUELS REMAIN QUITE DRY OUT THERE. THESE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CNDTNS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A DROP OFF IN WIND SPEEDS. THERE WILL BE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION. HOWEVER...LAST WEEKS STORM BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT WATER TO DOUGLAS...ELBERT AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY BUT DRIER CONDITIONS STILL EXIST OVER SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. COULD SEE A SMALL WINDOW OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL REASSESS THIS IN LATER SHIFTS. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ248>251. && $$ SHORT TERM...BAKER LONG TERM...ENTREKIN AVIATION...BAKER FIRE WEATHER...BAKER/ENTREKIN  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KLMK 202325 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 725 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2016 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)... Issued at 310 PM EDT Sun Mar 20 2016 Now - This Evening... Bands of light rain and snow courtesy of an upper low crossing the region will continue to slowly push south this evening through south central KY. Areas that see a change over to light snow might see light slushy accums that are transient and short-lived. Don't think we'll see any impacts from the quick light snow accums with ground temps well above freezing. Expect precipitation to wind down before midnight. Tonight - Monday Night... For the rest of tonight, expect dry conditions as the upper low moves off to the southeast. Skies should become partly cloudy to mostly clear after midnight allowing temps to plummet in the colder airmass. Expect lows to reach the mid to upper 20s in the Bluegrass region and upper 20s to lower 30s elsewhere. Although we haven't entered the main part of the growing season where a lot of vegetation would be negatively impacted by these sub-freezing temps (thus no freeze warning will be issued), still feel an SPS is in order to highlight the cold temps. At least this will hopefully give folks that do have early plants out to cover them and take precautions if they want. Patchy to areas of frost are expected with moist low levels, light winds and sub-freezing temps. Sfc high pressure will move in for Mon/Mon night keeping us dry. Highs in the lower 50s are expected for Mon under partly cloudy skies. Mon night temps will range through the 30s with our east central KY valleys getting the coldest and perhaps experiencing some patchy frost. .LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)... Issued at 320 PM EDT Sun Mar 20 2016 Tuesday - Thursday... Mid week will feature breezy conditions ahead of an approaching cold front. Tues and most locations on Wed will be dry with strong SW winds gusting up to 20-30 mph each afternoon/evening. These winds will bring warmer temps back into the region with highs in the 60s both days. Night time lows will become more mild in the upper 40s and 50s. Late in the day Wed, we'll start to see some rain shower activity over southern IN from isentropic lift ahead of the approaching wx system. Rain shower chances will continue to increase Wed night with isld t-storms possible as well. Thursday will be the primary time period for a line of showers/storms ahead of a cold front to push west to east across the area. Wind profiles will be favorable for strong storms although instability will be in question this far north along the front. Also, several timing solns and low pressure tracks amongst mid range models still exist adding more complexity to the forecast. For now, plan on everyone seeing rain, at times moderate, on Thurs with scattered t-storms. High temps on Thu will again be in the 60s. Friday - Sunday... The last part of the week and into the weekend will feature a dry but cool Fri. Temps will drop back into the 50s for highs on Fri in the post-frontal airmass. Another upper level trough looks to bring active weather to the region again by late Sat and into early next week with rain chances increasing towards Mon. && .AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)... Updated at 720 PM EDT Sun Mar 20 2016 VFR conditions are forecast this period for each of the sites. The lower deck at BWG has scattered out and the next deck coming in, according to obs and GOES-R MVFR probabilities, is a mid deck. Winds will continue from the northwest this evening. High pressure will move into the Deep South Monday, keeping our winds generally westerly. A diurnal cumulus field is possible in the late morning and afternoon, but again bases are expected to be VFR. && .LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ Short Term........AMS Long Term.........AMS Aviation..........RJS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMTR 180554 AFDMTR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA 1054 PM PDT THU MAR 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER NEAR THE COAST ALONG WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN COOLING IN COASTAL AREAS ON FRIDAY...BUT INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR ONE MORE DAYS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL IN ALL AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES IN NEAR THE WEST COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. && .DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:05 PM PDT THURSDAY...THE WARMING TREND THAT BEGAN EARLIER THIS WEEK CONTINUED TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS COMING IN ABOUT FIVE DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. MOST LOCATIONS POSTED HIGHS IN THE 70S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. SOME SPOTS CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 80S INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: OAKLAND MUSEUM...ANTIOCH...HEALDSBURG...MORGAN HILL...KING CITY...AND PINNACLES NATIONAL PARK. EVEN WITH TODAY'S WARM TEMPERATURES...MOST OF OUR AREA WAS BELOW RECORD HIGHS BY ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER DEVELOPED ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE OCEAN...AND LOCALLY INLAND FROM MONTEREY BAY. THE MARINE LAYER IS QUITE SHALLOW...ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAK...AND THE AIRMASS ACROSS INLAND AREAS REMAINS DRY. FOR THESE REASONS FEEL IT'S UNLIKELY WE WILL SEE MORE THAN PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP INLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE. WITH A MARINE LAYER NOW IN PLACE ALONG THE COAST...AND WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY...EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS IN COASTAL AREAS TOMORROW. COASTAL TEMPS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY. INLAND AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE MORE MODEST COOLING...AND SOME OF THE INLAND VALLEYS ISOLATED FROM THE EFFECTS OF A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL PROBABLY SEE TEMPS AROUND PERSISTENCE. MORE WIDESPREAD COOLING WILL OCCUR OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR CURRENT BALMY WEATHER MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND IS REPLACED BY A TROUGH BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THAT UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND THE NORTHERN PART OF CENTRAL CA...FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN OUR NORTH BAY COUNTIES BY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY TRANSITS OUR AREA. RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR AREA. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL WILL PROBABLY BE HEAVIEST ON SUNDAY AS THE INITIAL IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH...AS THAT IS WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHEST (AROUND 1 INCH). BY TUESDAY WE WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.5-1.5 INCHES IN THE NORTH BAY. SOUTH OF THE GOLDEN GATE MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A HALF INCH OR LESS. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION...AS OF 10:53 PM PDT THURSDAY...CURRENTLY THE GOES R IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT IS SHOWING A HIGH PROBABILITY OF STRATUS ALONG THE COAST AND PUSHING INTO THE SALINAS VALLEY. THE FORT ORD PROFILER IS SHOWING THAT THIS MARINE STRATUS...MARINE LAYER...IS RIGHT AROUND 1000 FEET DEEP. LOCAL OBS FROM HALFMOON BAY AND MONTEREY ARE SHOWING BASES BETWEEN 400 AND 600 FEET DEEP. WITH A TOP AROUND 1000 FEET IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE STRATUS WILL PUSH THROUGH SAN BRUNO GAP INTO SAN FRANCISCO BAY...BUT IT WILL PUSH INTO THE GOLDEN GATE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT KOAK OVERNIGHT AND ALSO THE SFO APPROACH BY MORNING. STRATUS IS ALSO ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST OVER THE MONTEREY AND SALINAS TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO LATE MORNING AS WELL. VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF OVC008 BETWEEN 1300Z AND 1700Z FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...VFR IS ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH BKN-OVC006-008 ANTICIPATED FOR THE MORNING. FIRST GUESS AT MORNING BURN OFF WILL BE 1630Z TO 1700Z. MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH PERIODS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FIRST GUESS AT MORNING BURN OFF FOR MTR AND SNS IS 1830Z. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE. && .MARINE...AS OF 8:27 PM PDT THURSDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RESIDES ALONG THE COAST. LOCALLY MODERATE AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF POINT SUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. A MODERATE WESTERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH A LARGER SWELL ARRIVING EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .TNGT...NONE. $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: DYKEMA AVIATION: LARRY MARINE: LARRY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANFRANCISCO FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBAYAREA WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSBAYAREA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KBOX 161814 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 214 PM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT. DAYTIME SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. IT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OR PASS HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 150 PM UPDATE... LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS E MA INTO E RI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...SKIES CLEARED BY LATE THIS MORNING. VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS HAS ALREADY MOVED IN AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM AS SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NOTED A BAND OF SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS SE MA IN WEAK WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS DISSIPATED ON THE 17Z KBOX 88D RADAR. DID NOT RECEIVE REPORTS OF SHOWERS FROM GROUND STATIONS AT THIS TIME. TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S AWAY FROM THE LOW CLOUDS AT 17Z...BUT REMAIN IN THE 45-50 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE EAST AS NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW. NOTING GUSTS UP TO 23 KT AT KACK. HAVE UPDATED NEAR TERM FORECAST TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT AND INCORPORATED INTO REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CLOUDS BREAKING IN THE CT VALLEY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL MA/NE CT/NW RI BY AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ACROSS E COASTAL AREAS...CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS BASED ON SEVERAL FACTORS. FIRST...06Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING LOW LEVEL INVERSION AT ABOUT 2000-2500 FT REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO SEE CLOUD THICKNESS ON GOES-E EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT UP TO 2500 FT THIS MORNING. ALSO...NOTING THE GOES-E IFR PROB PERCENTAGES BEGINNING TO LOWER BUT REMAINING AOA 90 PCT ON THE MVFR PROBS. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN PRETTY GOOD WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OUT BUT RUNNING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST WHERE LOWER CLOUDS LINGER. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... TONIGHT... AFTER A VERY SHORT DRY/SUNNY PERIOD TODAY...OCCLUDING COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THE REGION WITH NOSE OF 30-40 KT LLJ IN TOW LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRONGEST DYNAMICS ARE N OF THE REGION...HOWEVER CONVERGENCE OF PWATS ABOUT 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA AS WELL AS A SLOW DECREASE IN STABILITY AS H5 TEMPS COOL LATE...WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHRA ESPECIALLY N OF THE PIKE...BUT LIKELY AS FAR S AS THE S COAST ALSO. AT THIS POINT...THE STABILITY REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT THAT WE WILL LEAVE TS OUT UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PEAK PRECIP PERIOD. AS PRECIP ENDS FROM W-E AFTER 04Z...FOG IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW UNTIL MIXING PEAKS TOWARD SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S DUE TO THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER/HIGH DWPTS. THU... INTERESTING MARCH DAY WITH SEVERAL FACTORS...SOME OF WHICH COUNTER EACH OTHER. W WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS VERY DEEP MIXED LAYER DEVELOPS. THIS MIX LAYER DEVELOPS IN PART TO VERY STRONG AND RAPID COLD ADVECTION IN THE MID LVLS THAT WILL CULMINATE IN H5 TEMPS BELOW -30C. THIS WILL YIELD MID LVL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 8-9C/KM. THE DEEP MIXED LAYER LOOKS TO REACH NEAR H7...WHICH GENERATES DEEP INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. THE DEEP MIXED LAYER AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT YIELDS SFC BASED CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 500J/KG AS K VALUES APPROACH 20-25 LATE IN THE DAY...SLOWED BY THE LOW LVL MIXING. CONSIDERING ALL THIS...ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH A RISK FOR HAIL /THE VERY COLD AIR/ AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY EVEN DAMAGING WINDS /INVERTED-V SOUNDING WITH NEARLY 500J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE/. THE TWO ISSUES ARE THE LACK OF MOISTURE...AND WEAK LIFT WHICH DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL CLOSE TO 21Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH SUGGESTING ISOLATED-SCT SHRA/T-STORM RISK. ALTHOUGH WINDS/HAIL COULD OCCUR EVEN IF NO THUNDER IS OBSERVED. BEST TIMING IS LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO OVERACHIEVE THANKS TO THE INCREASED MIXING. WITH BREAKS OF SUN...SUSPECT MAINLY UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * SCT SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS THU EVE * COLD FRONT FRI BRINGS SCT RAIN SHOWERS WITH EVEN GRAUPEL * TURNING MUCH COLDER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 30 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS * DRY AND CHILLY SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY * COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUN INTO MON BUT MAY ALSO PASS HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA DETAILS... THURSDAY NIGHT... SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING. COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS BELOW -30C...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8C/KM AND TOTAL TOTALS NEAR 60 ARE QUITE FAVORABLE. LIMITING FACTORS ARE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE DIMINISHING AS ACTIVITY TRIES TO WORK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE ABOVE PARAMETERS SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO WITH 50 KNOT OF WIND SHOWN AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER GIVEN INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE EVENING WEARS ON GIVEN LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE DRY WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S. FRIDAY... ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW FAVORABLE INDICES FOR A WINDEX EVENT IF SURFACE TEMPS WERE COLDER. NICE CONVERGENCE ON THE COLD FRONT...DEEP 0 TO 2 KM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A PERIOD OF DECENT OMEGA. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE RATHER MILD SO EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT PTYPE MAY BECOME MIXED WITH GRAUPEL OR EVEN SNOW IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. EVEN A LOW RISK OF THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT INTO THE FORECAST. HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 40S...TO LOWER 50S SHOULD FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT... MUCH COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE 20S REGION WIDE WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS! QUITE A CHANGE FROM OUR RECENT WEATHER! WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE OUTER-CAPE...BUT BASED ON CURRENT WIND TRAJECTORIES THEY SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. SATURDAY... A RATHER COLD AND BLUSTERY START TO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...850 MB TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND -12C. HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SUNDAY AND MONDAY... MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LATEST 00Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER EAST AND...TAKEN VERBATIM...WOULD SUPPORT A GLANCING BLOW OR A MISS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME RANGE THAT IS NOT A BIG FACTOR. THIS POTENTIAL EVENT IS STILL BEYOND 120 HOURS ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND JUST A 100 MILE SHIFT TO THE WEST WOULD BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION. ULTIMATELY...THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS STORM WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW/WHEN NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY INTERACTS WITH ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE STRENGTH AND AMOUNT OF DIGGING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL ALSO DETERMINE HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THIS STORM TRACKS. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE...JUST A SUBTLE CHANGE IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE ENERGY WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND/OR SNOW EVENT VERSE A GLANCING BLOW OR EVEN A COMPLETE MISS OUT TO SEA. AT THIS POINT...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP ALL OPTIONS ON THE TABLE. WE CAN SAY THAT A WARM/INLAND TRACK OF THIS STORM IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN A 50/50 LOW AND UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING ACROSS GREENLAND...THERE IS ONLY SO FAR WEST THIS STORM CAN GET. TUESDAY... WHAT EVER HAPPENS WITH THIS STORM...DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO MOVE IN AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. HIGH TEMPS REACH INTO THE 40S. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EASTERN MA...IFR CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS CAPE COD/KMVY AND KACK WITH PATCHY FOG INVOF KGHG...WHILE MVFR CIGS CONTINUE AS FAR INLAND AS KFIT TO KBED TO KUUU. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET WILL DIMINISH BY 20Z-21Z. CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR PRIOR TO FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THIS EVENING. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WEAK FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN TIER. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING...THEN CLEARING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START...AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. W WINDS GUST 20-30 KT AT TIMES. LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING...SOME -SHRA OR EVEN AN ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE W. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF WIND GUSTS 40-50 KT AND EVEN SMALL HAIL. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH GRAUPEL OR EVEN A BIT OF SNOW. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED LATE FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE LATE SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IF A STORM TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO BRING RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO THE REGION. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...UP TO 10 FT ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. WILL TAKE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO FULLY SUBSIDE. HAVE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFTS ON MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG GUSTY W WINDS NEAR SHORE ON THURSDAY...WHICH MAY REQUIRE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES PRIMARILY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHWEST SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. GALE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY BRING SMALL CRAFT SEAS/WINDS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW RISK OF GALES DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST IT TRACKS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY NEAR TERM...EVT SHORT TERM...DOODY LONG TERM...FRANK AVIATION...FRANK/EVT MARINE...FRANK/DOODY/EVT  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KBOX 161444 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1044 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A RISK FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT...AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. A STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. IT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OR PASS HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1025 AM UPDATE... CLOUDS BREAKING IN THE CT VALLEY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL MA/NE CT/NW RI BY AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ACROSS E COASTAL AREAS...CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS BASED ON SEVERAL FACTORS. FIRST...06Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING LOW LEVEL INVERSION AT ABOUT 2000-2500 FT REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO SEE CLOUD THICKNESS ON GOES-E EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT UP TO 2500 FT THIS MORNING. ALSO...NOTING THE GOES-E IFR PROB PERCENTAGES BEGINNING TO LOWER BUT REMAINING AOA 90 PCT ON THE MVFR PROBS. N-NE WINDS IN PLACE...STILL GUSTING UP TO AROUND 25 KT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AT 14Z...BUT HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE SUNRISE. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATING WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMP/DEWPT TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN PRETTY GOOD WHERE THE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OUT BUT RUNNING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST. HAVE ADJUSTED TO BRING CURRENT AND INCORPORATED INTO THIS AFTERNOON TRENDS. HAVE ALSO UPDATED CLOUD COVER TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT THINKING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY REMAIN TRAPPED NEAR 925 TO 950 MB ACROSS EASTERN MA BELOW THE INVERSION. THEREFORE...LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH PERHAPS JUST A FEW PEEKS OF SUN. THE RESULT WILL BE A WIDE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPS TODAY. GIVEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN IN OUR WESTERN ZONES EXPECTED LATER THIS AM AND AFTERNOON... SHOULD SEE HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER...MUCH OF EASTERN MA/RI WILL PROBABLY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S WITH LOTS CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH. IN FACT...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE CAPE/NANTUCKET. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... TONIGHT... AFTER A VERY SHORT DRY/SUNNY PERIOD TODAY...OCCLUDING COLD FRONT WILL BRUSH THE REGION WITH NOSE OF 30-40 KT LLJ IN TOW LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRONGEST DYNAMICS ARE N OF THE REGION...HOWEVER CONVERGENCE OF PWATS ABOUT 2 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL...THE WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FROPA AS WELL AS A SLOW DECREASE IN STABILITY AS H5 TEMPS COOL LATE...WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHRA ESPECIALLY N OF THE PIKE...BUT LIKELY AS FAR S AS THE S COAST ALSO. AT THIS POINT...THE STABILITY REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT THAT WE WILL LEAVE TS OUT UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PEAK PRECIP PERIOD. AS PRECIP ENDS FROM W-E AFTER 04Z...FOG IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW UNTIL MIXING PEAKS TOWARD SUNRISE. TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S DUE TO THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER/HIGH DWPTS. THU... INTERESTING MARCH DAY WITH SEVERAL FACTORS...SOME OF WHICH COUNTER EACH OTHER. W WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS VERY DEEP MIXED LAYER DEVELOPS. THIS MIX LAYER DEVELOPS IN PART TO VERY STRONG AND RAPID COLD ADVECTION IN THE MID LVLS THAT WILL CULMINATE IN H5 TEMPS BELOW -30C. THIS WILL YIELD MID LVL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 8-9C/KM. THE DEEP MIXED LAYER LOOKS TO REACH NEAR H7...WHICH GENERATES DEEP INVERTED-V SIGNATURE. THE DEEP MIXED LAYER AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT YIELDS SFC BASED CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 500J/KG AS K VALUES APPROACH 20-25 LATE IN THE DAY...SLOWED BY THE LOW LVL MIXING. CONSIDERING ALL THIS...ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH A RISK FOR HAIL /THE VERY COLD AIR/ AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY EVEN DAMAGING WINDS /INVERTED-V SOUNDING WITH NEARLY 500J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE/. THE TWO ISSUES ARE THE LACK OF MOISTURE...AND WEAK LIFT WHICH DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL CLOSE TO 21Z. WILL CONTINUE WITH SUGGESTING ISOLATED-SCT SHRA/T-STORM RISK. ALTHOUGH WINDS/HAIL COULD OCCUR EVEN IF NO THUNDER IS OBSERVED. BEST TIMING IS LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE WRN HALF OF THE REGION. TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO OVERACHIEVE THANKS TO THE INCREASED MIXING. WITH BREAKS OF SUN...SUSPECT MAINLY UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * SCT SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS THU EVE * COLD FRONT FRI BRINGS SCT RAIN SHOWERS WITH EVEN GRAUPEL * TURNING MUCH COLDER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 30 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS * DRY AND CHILLY SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY * COASTAL STORM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUN INTO MON BUT MAY ALSO PASS HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA DETAILS... THURSDAY NIGHT... SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING. COLD POOL ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS BELOW -30C...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8C/KM AND TOTAL TOTALS NEAR 60 ARE QUITE FAVORABLE. LIMITING FACTORS ARE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY BE DIMINISHING AS ACTIVITY TRIES TO WORK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. NONETHELESS...GIVEN THE ABOVE PARAMETERS SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS EVEN A LOW RISK FOR A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO WITH 50 KNOT OF WIND SHOWN AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER GIVEN INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE EVENING WEARS ON GIVEN LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BE DRY WITH LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S. FRIDAY... ANOTHER INTERESTING DAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW FAVORABLE INDICES FOR A WINDEX EVENT IF SURFACE TEMPS WERE COLDER. NICE CONVERGENCE ON THE COLD FRONT...DEEP 0 TO 2 KM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A PERIOD OF DECENT OMEGA. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE RATHER MILD SO EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT PTYPE MAY BECOME MIXED WITH GRAUPEL OR EVEN SNOW IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. EVEN A LOW RISK OF THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT INTO THE FORECAST. HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 40S...TO LOWER 50S SHOULD FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT... MUCH COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND GOOD MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH. BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE 20S REGION WIDE WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS! QUITE A CHANGE FROM OUR RECENT WEATHER! WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE OUTER-CAPE...BUT BASED ON CURRENT WIND TRAJECTORIES THEY SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. SATURDAY... A RATHER COLD AND BLUSTERY START TO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...850 MB TEMPS WILL REMAIN AROUND -12C. HIGHS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SUNDAY AND MONDAY... MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND THE TRACK/INTENSITY OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LATEST 00Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FURTHER EAST AND...TAKEN VERBATIM...WOULD SUPPORT A GLANCING BLOW OR A MISS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME RANGE THAT IS NOT A BIG FACTOR. THIS POTENTIAL EVENT IS STILL BEYOND 120 HOURS ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND JUST A 100 MILE SHIFT TO THE WEST WOULD BRING SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION. ULTIMATELY...THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS STORM WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW/WHEN NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY INTERACTS WITH ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE STRENGTH AND AMOUNT OF DIGGING OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL ALSO DETERMINE HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THIS STORM TRACKS. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE...JUST A SUBTLE CHANGE IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE ENERGY WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND/OR SNOW EVENT VERSE A GLANCING BLOW OR EVEN A COMPLETE MISS OUT TO SEA. AT THIS POINT...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP ALL OPTIONS ON THE TABLE. WE CAN SAY THAT A WARM/INLAND TRACK OF THIS STORM IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN A 50/50 LOW AND UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING ACROSS GREENLAND...THERE IS ONLY SO FAR WEST THIS STORM CAN GET. TUESDAY... WHAT EVER HAPPENS WITH THIS STORM...DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO MOVE IN AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. HIGH TEMPS REACH INTO THE 40S. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. EXPECT VFR CIGS ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AS CLOUDS THIN OUT. ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS...CLOUDS WILL LINGER. ACROSS CENTRAL MA/RI/NE CT...EXPECT MVFR CIGS THAT MAY LIFT TO LOW END VFR MAINLY NEAR OR W OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. E COASTAL MA...EXPECT IFR-LIFR CIGS THAT MAY BRIEFLY LIFT TO MVFR AROUND 19Z-22Z. VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR...BUT MAY SEE MVFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG ACROSS SE MA. TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WEAK FRONT WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NRN TIER. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING...THEN CLEARING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO W DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR TO START...AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. W WINDS GUST 20-30 KT AT TIMES. LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING...SOME -SHRA OR EVEN AN ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE W. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF WIND GUSTS 40-50 KT AND EVEN SMALL HAIL. KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. IFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FRIDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WHICH MAY BE MIXED WITH GRAUPEL OR EVEN A BIT OF SNOW. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED LATE FRI INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE LATE SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IF A STORM TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO BRING RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO THE REGION. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT ACROSS NANTUCKET SOUND THROUGH AROUND 17Z THEN DIMINISHING. SEAS REMAIN HIGH...UP TO 10 FT ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. WILL TAKE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO FULLY SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR STRONG GUSTY W WINDS NEAR SHORE ON THURSDAY...WHICH MAY REQUIRE ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES PRIMARILY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. OUTLOOK /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THURSDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTHWEST SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONGEST OF THOSE WINDS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. GALE WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS/SEAS MAINLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY BRING SMALL CRAFT SEAS/WINDS TO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW RISK OF GALES DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST IT TRACKS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231- 232. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ250-254- 255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ251. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY NEAR TERM...FRANK/EVT SHORT TERM...DOODY LONG TERM...FRANK AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY/EVT MARINE...FRANK/DOODY/EVT  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KARX 101630 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 1030 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1030 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016 QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD/TEMP TRENDS. WIDESPREAD STRATUS ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE CWA...SAVE FOR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AND WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO BREAK INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE TUCKED BENEATH A RATHER SHARP INVERSION. LIMITED MIXING AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD WON'T HELP MATTERS MUCH EITHER FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...THOUGH IT IS ENCOURAGING TO SEE SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM WHERE CLOUD THICKNESS IS MUCH LESS (GENERALLY 1000 FT OR LESS). PER TRENDS...DO STILL EXPECT SOME PRETTY RAPID IMPROVEMENT HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH PERHAPS A STRIPE OF SLOWER-TO-DEPART STRATUS BISECTING THE CWA WHERE CLOUDS ARE MUCH THICKER CURRENTLY. HAVE TWEAKED HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES CENTRAL/NORTHERN SPOTS BUT MAY ULTIMATELY HAVE TO RAISE THEM BACK UP PENDING CLOUD TRENDS (NEVER A BAD THING TO HAVE TO DO IN EARLY MARCH). && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016 AT 3 AM...CLOUDS CONTINUED TO LINGER ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE DENSE FOG HAS MOVED OUT OF MEDFORD WISCONSIN... BUT STILL LINGERS IN THE PHILLIPS AND WAUSAU AREAS. WITH IT REMAINING PATCHY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...FEEL THIS CAN BE HANDLED BY A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT INSTEAD OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOR TODAY...THE 10.00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND THEN CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 50 DEGREES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND INTO THE LOWER AND MID 50S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREE WARMER THAN NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016 ON FRIDAY MORNING...A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A BROKEN 4 TO 6K DECK OF CLOUDS...AND THEN SKIES WILL CLEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON. 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB FROM AROUND 4C AT 12Z FRIDAY TO 8-12C BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS DAY...PLEASE CONSULT THE CLIMATOLOGY SECTION BELOW. ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS INTO THE REGION. THE GFS CONTINUE TO BE THE FASTEST WITH HAVING ITS CLOUDS REACHING THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR BY NOON. MEANWHILE THE NAM DOES NOT HAVE THE CLOUDS REACHING THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR UNTIL 6 PM. THE ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE 2 SOLUTIONS. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. IF THE CLOUDS ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WOULD HAVE TO BE RAISED INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. FOR NOW...OPTED JUST TO STAY WITH THE MODEL BLENDS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THAT DAY. FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...A SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL KEEP PERIODIC SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH. ON TUESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT. THE GFS HAS A MOVE NEGATIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...SO ITS WARM FRONT MOVES AS FAR NORTH AS THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. SURFACE BASED CAPES IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM CLIMB INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR REMAIN WEAK...SO NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE THE ECWMF HAS A BROADER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ITS WARM FRONT DOES NOT ADVANCE ANY FURTHER NORTH THAN THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. THIS KEEPS THE THREAT FOR THUNDER SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH MIXED SIGNALS IN THE MODELS... OPTED TO JUST KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 500 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016 EXPANSE OF IFR/MVFR CLOUDS COVERS NORTHERN WI/MN EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WESTERN MN. NAM12/RAP13 LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS DOING A DECENT JOB WITH THE LAYOUT ON THE CURRENT CLOUD SHIELD...BUT LOOK A BIT SLOWER IN CLEARING IT IN THEIR LATEST RUNS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS MATCH. WILL PUSH BACK THE SCATTERING OUT OF BKN/OVC CIGS WITH THIS IN MIND...ALTHOUGH SOME HINTS THAT THIS TIMING MAY HAVE TO GET PUSHED BACK EVEN A FEW HOURS MORE. WILL MONITOR TRENDS AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY FOR FRI MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS INTO EASTERN WI. SOME CURRENT SFC OBS INDICATING A FOG POTENTIAL UNDER THE CENTER OF THE HIGH. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST...BUT ITS SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR. && .CLIMATE...FRIDAY ISSUED AT 333 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016 ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94...AND INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WERE SET BACK IN 1990...2006...AND 2012. HERE ARE SOME OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARCH 11TH. ALMA DAM 4 WI - 64F - 2012 AUSTIN MN - 63F - 2012 BLACK RIVER FALLS WI - 67F - 2012 CALEDONIA MN - 62F - 2012 CHARLES CITY IA - 64F - 1990 CRESCO IA - 64F - 2012 DECORAH IA - 65F - 2012 FRIENDSHIP WI - 65F - 2012 LA CROSSE WI - 67F - 2012 LANCASTER WI - 62F - 2012 MEDFORD WI - 58F - 1908 OELWEIN IA - 64F - 2012 OWEN WI - 59F - 2012 PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI - 66F - 1990 ROCHESTER MN - 63F - 2012 SPARTA WI - 65F - 2012 THEIMAN MN - 65F - 2012 WINONA DAM MN - 66F - 2012 && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...LAWRENCE SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM....BOYNE AVIATION.....RIECK CLIMATE......BOYNE  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KSTO 071741 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 900 45AM PST MON MAR 7 2016 Round two of the big weekend storm will continue to bring showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to the region today before precipitation ends tonight. Heavy snow will continue in the northern Sierra this morning before tapering off this afternoon. A break in wet weather is then expected into mid-week before more storms impact the region late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Bands of precip winding down over Norcal as main short wave energy digs S and E of the CWA today. Well defined upper low center off the SFO Bay area coast will be phasing with energy dropping SEwd along the coast on the backside of the upper trof today. Forecast instability will mainly be along the coast but could extend inland to the coastal range...and into the Delta/Srn Sac/Nrn SJV this afternoon. The flow will mainly be unidirectional (from the NW) so rotating storms very unlikely. Movement will be to the SE around 12 kts and any T-storm development to our W could approach/make its way into our CWA. High resolution QPF and Comp REF products forecast a general ending of showers in the Valley with lingering showers over the Siernev today. Consensus of these forecasts suggest convection limited to areas mainly from the SFO Bay area SEwd along the coastal range...with some forecast higher Comp REF cells S of SAC during the afternoon. Will let FLS expire at 0915...and will continue WSW until 4 pm based on current trends. Blue Canyon along Interstate 80 at around 5000 feet has likely picked up around 18 inches of snowfall since late Sunday afternoon. Most of tonight and Tuesday look dry (except for some lingering flurries this evening at the higher elevations of the northern Sierra) as upper ridging moves over the area and northerly surface flow develops. Some light warm-advection precipitation may begin to develop late Tuesday and continue Tuesday night across the northern mountains and northern Sacramento Valley. Ridge then forecast to nudge eastward on Wednesday allowing some precipitation to sag about as far south as I-80. Snow levels will be higher, around 6500-7500 feet. Some differences on timing of the next main frontal system on Thursday, but precipitation looks likely to develop north of I-80. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)... Unsettled weather will continue through much of the extended period as a series of wet weather systems move through the region. The first system will swing through the area Thursday and Friday. This system looks to be rather slow-moving and could potentially produce substantial rain and snow along with gusty winds. Another series of waves will then likely arrive in quick succession late Saturday through Monday of next week. That might be last of the storms for at least a bit, as long-range models have consistently shown high pressure building into the region around March 16-17. Dang && .AVIATION... Storm system will gradually exit the area today with conditions improving from areas of MVFR to VFR in the afternoon. North winds will incrase this afternoon, gusting to 20 kt. EK && .STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 041126 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 226 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION AGAINST THE 04/06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD THE LAST FEW DAYS. THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS OUT TO THE MID RANGE...BUT THE PATTERN OVER MAINLAND ALASKA BECOMES PRETTY BENIGN BEYOND 100 HOURS OR SO. WILL USE THE SAME METHODOLOGY THAT WE HAVE USED THE LAST FEW DAYS AND MAKE ONLY MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN NUDGE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...533 DAM HIGH NEAR 80N 135W WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO 500 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES BY MONDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC. A 515 DAM LOW OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM DRAINAGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWEST TO BE OVER BRISTOL BAY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND OVER DUTCH HARBOR BY SUNDAY MORNING. A 538 DAM HIGH OVER SIBERIA WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE PRIBILOFS ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH THE RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA MOVING WEST TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A 503 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEAR 48N 150W WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO BE NEAR 48N 140W BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT 509 DAM...THEN DISSIPATES MON. AS THE LOW OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM SLIDES SOUTHWEST THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE INTERIOR TONIGHT...EXTENDING TO THE NORTHWEST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY...AND PERSIST INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. AT 850 HPA...ONE LAST DAY OF COOLING...MAYBE ANOTHER DEGREE...THEN THE SLOW WARM UP BEGINS AND CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE WILL START GETTING PINCHED A BIT TODAY AS A 976 MB LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE COAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA...AND THE 1031 MB HIGH IN THE HIGH ARCTIC DRIFTS A LITTLE SOUTH AND RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES STRENGTHENS A BIT. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD ON INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT STARTING LATE SUNDAY. THE PATTERN OVER THE MAINLAND FALLS APART TUESDAY AND WINDS OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND WILL BE LIGHT. THE DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO BE OVER THE WEST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. SATELLITE...SPORT AVHRR NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 04/0634Z AND 04/0815Z SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND THE BERING STRAIT REGION. USING IT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE GOES MVFR/IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 04/0845Z THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF MVFR OVER THE WEST COAST AND ARCTIC...AND THE ALASKA RANGE...WITH A PATCH OF IFR OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC PLAINS. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WINDS PICKING UP ON THE NORTHEAST COAST AND OVER THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA TIGHTENS UP. STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW WILL BE EAST OF NUIQSUT. WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 25 MPH RANGE. TEMPERATURES DROPPING ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO THROUGH SATURDAY THEN A SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE NORTHWEST COAST AND WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 203 AND 204 DUE MAINLY TO THE VISIBILITY ISSUES. WIND CHILL COULD APPROACH 50 BELOW IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AROUND BARTER ISLAND ON SATURDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS...OTHERWISE CLEARING TODAY AS THE RIDGE OVER SIBERIA PUSHES A BIT EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A BIT MORE...UP TO 10 DEGREES COOLER...OUT HERE AS THE COLD AIR IS DRAGGED SOUTH IN THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IN SIBERIA AND THE LOW MOVING OVER BRISTOL BAY. WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE BERING STRAIT WILL PICK UP TO GALE FORCE WITH WINDS NEAR 50 MPH ON THE BERING STRAIT COAST. DO NOT EXPECT TOO MANY ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW BUT WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE BERING STRAIT COAST TO COVER THE STRONG WINDS AND PERIODS OF POOR VISIBILITY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND THICKENING OVER THE INTERIOR AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NIKOLAI AREA. EXPECT SOME FLURRIES AROUND THE AREA...BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IF ANY FOR MOST AREAS. THE LOW MOVES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR BY LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS PICKING UP AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL BLOWING SNOW OVER SOME OF THE SUMMITS IN THE INTERIOR. MODELS INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE YUKON FLATS. NORTH WINDS ALSO PICK UP A BIT IN THE PASSES AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ213. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240- PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KFFC 222355 AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 650 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND GEORGIA AND INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. THE MOST SUSTAINED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL THIS FAR TODAY HAS BEEN ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES RIDE OVER THE FRONT. CONTINUE TO SEE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL ASSOCIATED WITH THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES WITH CURRENT ACTIVITY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NE GEORGIA. ANOTHER NEW BATCH IS TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA AS WELL AND ALL THIS IS DOING IS PRIMING US FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN COMING DAYS WHICH WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY LEAD TO FLOOD ISSUES. BY TONIGHT...WITH APPROACHING MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE...SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TO RESIDE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER BY 06Z. MEANWHILE...WEDGE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS WHICH LOOKS TO ADD A FURTHER FOCUS FOR ENHANCED RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH RAIN CHANCES ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PERIODS IN BETWEEN BANDS WHERE THE RAIN WILL ABATE. SAME CAN BE SAID FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY AS WE HAVE GOOD SYNOPTIC LIFT SETUP AND WEAK SHORTWAVES BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO PERIODS OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ADDITIONAL QUARTER TO HALF INCH QPF WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. MAIN EVENT HOWEVER WILL BE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT AREAWIDE INCLUDING THE PROSPECTS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. VERY IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER 100 KTS AS WELL AS COMPOSITE INDICES SUCH AS SIGNIFICANT TORNADO PARAMETER SHOWING VALUES IN EXCESS OF 6 INDICATE THIS WILL LIKELY BE A STRONGER SYSTEM THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE SOME TIME. GIVEN THESE FACTS THOUGH...THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL CONTINUE TO BE INSTABILITY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW MUCH WEDGE CUTS OFF SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AND HOW MUCH GULF COAST CONVECTION INFLUENCES THE AREA. FEELING AT THIS MOMENT IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS DYNAMIC ENOUGH THAT NONE OF THE ABOVE MITIGATING ISSUES WILL MATTER AND WE WILL SEE SEVERE STORMS WITH TORNADOES. ADDING TO THE COMPLEXITIES WILL BE THE FACT THAT THIS WILL LIKELY BE QLCS AS OPPOSED TO DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG WIND FLOW PATTERN. DEESE .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW LIFTING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ASSOCIATED SQUALL EXITING THE STATE. BEHIND THE CONVECTION...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO THE STATE WITH A MARKED CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. A SLIGHT WARM UP IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE NEXT LATE SUNDAY...AND ALTHOUGH EXTENDED MODELS AGREE WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SITUATION...TIMING DIFFERS SLIGHTLY WITH THE NEXT FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE STATE. FOR NOW THE ECMWF TRAILS THE SLIGHTLY FASTER /6-12 HRS AHEAD/ GFS. COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. 31/01 && .HYDROLOGY... AN ESF HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA WITH DETAILS ON RAINFALL INCLUDED WITHIN IT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH EITHER LATER THIS EVENING OR ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT. && .AVIATION... 00Z UPDATE... CEILINGS REMAIN AT DIFFERENT LEVELS BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY SETTLE INTO MVFR...AND THEN IFR PROBABLY BY 06Z. RAIN PREVAILING OVER ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KMCN AND KCSG...BUT SHOULD BE SPREADING INTO THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PROBABLY BY 06Z. //ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE... MEDIUM ON WINDS AND CEILINGS. HIGH ON ALL REMAINING ELEMENTS. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 55 60 53 64 / 90 70 90 90 ATLANTA 55 64 55 60 / 90 80 100 90 BLAIRSVILLE 49 55 48 60 / 90 70 100 100 CARTERSVILLE 55 62 52 61 / 90 80 100 90 COLUMBUS 57 72 59 61 / 80 70 90 80 GAINESVILLE 53 55 50 62 / 90 80 100 90 MACON 56 72 60 67 / 60 70 80 90 ROME 55 63 52 59 / 80 80 100 90 PEACHTREE CITY 55 67 55 61 / 90 80 100 90 VIDALIA 57 75 60 71 / 30 50 70 70 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...41  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KBRO 211759 AAB AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 1159 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .AVIATION...CIGS ARE SCATTERING OUT/LIFTING TO JUST ABOVE 3 KFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH MDT SOUTH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. THE CAP SHOULD LOWER AGAIN THIS EVENING AS WINDS DECREASE WITH A BROAD PRESSURE FIELD OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWERING CEILINGS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A SHALLOW SECONDARY SFC BASED INVERSION WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO SUPPORT FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN FOG THICKNESS AND VISIBILITY...BUT THE TIMING FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT TO MID MRNG IS TYPICAL. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS AND VSBY WILL THEREFORE DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP...AND MAY FURTHER IMPACT EARLY MORNING FLIGHTS. EXPECT CONCERNS THROUGH MID MORNING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOSTLY LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS RANGE FROM 700FT AT BRO TO NEAR 1500FT AT MFE. EXPECT A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO LINGER THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CEILINGS IMPROVE DUE TO MIXING. MODERATE TO BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LOCAL GRADIENT INCREASES. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER 3Z. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2016/ SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE TODAY RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW SHALLOW GULF MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOW CLOUDS TODAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA AND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT PATCHY FOG...AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE...ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. HOWEVER...DUE TO A CAPPED ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE CWA WILL HOLD POPS TO 20 OR LESS FOR MONDAY. LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS AT THAT TIME THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A RAPID INFLUX OF DRIER AIR. RELATIVE HUMIDITY PERCENTAGES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BRO CWFA...AND BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION. THESE PERCENTAGES WOULD SUPPORT A RED FLAG WARNING ON WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...HOWEVER... 20-FOOT WINDS ARE ABOUT 5 TO 10 MPH TOO LOW TO SUPPORT THE RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME. THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY SUCCESSIVE SHIFTS...AND AT A MINIMUM...A RANGELAND FIRE DISCUSSION WILL BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE .SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A NEARLY ZONAL 500 MB FLOW WILL LEAD TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME HIGH AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES. MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 14 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 18 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY OVER 3.6 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS AT 03 CST/09 UTC. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GENERALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE TUESDAY NIGHT PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY AND GALE WARNINGS POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RETURN TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 54/64  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMPX 201811 AFDMPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1211 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016 TEMPERATURES WERE QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...READINGS ACTUALLY REBOUNDED BACK INTO THE 40S IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED BEHIND THE FRONT AND TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BACK INTO THE 30S. NONETHELESS...IT REMAINS VERY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MIXING WITH CONTINUED CAA AND THINK WE SHOULD MIX TO AT LEAST 925 MB. MIXING DOWN FROM THAT LEVEL WOULD BRING US INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOWER 40S. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE NORTH TODAY WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE AREA FROM WARMING TOO MUCH MORE THAN THAT. LOWERED HIGHS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IF SUN CONTINUES LONGER INTO THE DAY THEY MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN. FOCUS SHIFTS TO A VERY WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. AN AREA OF RELATIVE LOW PRESSURE /1020+ MB/ WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHWESTERN MN LATE TONIGHT. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SAT FEB 20 2016 WEST/NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL MAKE FOR FLEETING LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ALONG WITH THE CONTINUANCE OF MILD TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING...AS A FAINT BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASS OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE MODEST AT BEST...SO ATTENDANT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. THERMAL PROFILES GIVEN THE MILD PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO A RAIN/SNOW COMBO...BUT SNOW IS PRIMARILY FAVORED ON SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKS LIKE A DUSTING TO HALF INCH WOULD BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE FROM WEST/SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A BRIEF STINT OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. DESPITE LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN WESTERLY FLOW CLIPS THE AREA. STILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING SO PRECIP AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY ALTHOUGH WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. SLIGHTLY LOWER HEIGHTS WILL MEAN HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A TAD LOWER...BUT LOW/MID 30S LOOK ACHIEVABLE. DURING THE LAST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK A DEEP TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS ENERGY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT AMOUNTS AGAIN WOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A HIT AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS. HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY DWINDLE DOWN TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THE LAST WEEKEND IN FEBRUARY COULD BE QUITE COLD IF THE GFS SOLUTION PANS OUT AND AN AIRMASS OF ARCTIC ORIGIN PENETRATES THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF WANTS TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE AIR BOTTLED UP IN CANADA. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2016 THOUGH MVFR CIGS ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE AREA TO START THIS PERIOD...A NICE HOLE IN THE CLOUDS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS WRN MN...WHICH IS ADDING UNCERTAINTY TO CIG FORECAST WITH THESE TAFS. THE LAMP CONTINUES TO INSIST THERE BEING SOME PERMANENCE TO THIS HOLE...WITH HOPWRF MVFR PROBS SUPPORTING THIS IDEA AS WELL. THE HRRR KEEPS SKIES PRETTY MUCH OVC...BUT WITH HOLE THERE...TRENDED TAFS TOWARD THE LAMP WITH THE PERIOD OF VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE MVFR CIGS EXIST ACROSS ERN NODAK/NRN MN AND THESE CIGS WILL DROP SOUTH...SO MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE RETURNING TO ANYWHERE THAT SEEMS THEM LEAVE THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT EVENT CONTINUES TO LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE. MID LEVEL FORCING IS STRONGEST ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER...SO EXPECT BEST SNOW TO GO FROM WC TO SC MN...THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF -SN/FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE TOMORROW MORNING. KMSP...AREA OF SCATTERING OF CLOUDS WEST OF MSP IS ON TRACK TO MOVE OVERHEAD BY 21Z. QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHEN DO THE MVFR CIGS RETURN...9Z MAY BE A BIT LATE FOR THAT OCCURRING...BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW BIG THE SCATTERING BECOMES. NAM SOUNDING SHOWS SNOW TOMORROW GETTING GENERATED AT ABOUT 12K FT...WITH 8K FT OF DRY AIR BETWEEN THE SNOW AND LOW STRATUS...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES AT THIS POINT. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS LATE. WIND SW 5-10 KTS. TUE...MVFR. CHC -SN/-RA AND IFR. WIND NW 5-15 KTS. WED...VFR. WIND W 5 KTS. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...MPG  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KRNK 171955 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 255 PM EST WED FEB 17 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 200 PM EST WEDNESDAY... A SHORTWAVE LOCATED IN KENTUCKY AROUND 18Z WILL ROTATE EAST AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO PIVOT NORTHEAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING SOME RIDGING AND RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS. SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE HIRESW-ARW-E...RNK- WRFARW...GFS AND NAM SHOWED ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF...RAP AND HRRR ARE LESS IMPRESSED FOR ACTIVITY. FOR TONIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN AN INCH. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF GREENBRIER COUNTY OF WEST VIRGINIA. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 20S IN THE SOUTHEAST. ANY LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW FLURRIES SHOULD BE GONE THURSDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MAY STILL PERSIST UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WHEN THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD. EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM EST WEDNESDAY A CLASSIC WEDGE WILL TAKE RESIDENCE OVER THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE MID ATLANTIC PORTION OF THE WEDGE WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE TRACKS EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS WEDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WHILE BLOCKING THE GULF. THE FRONT COMING ACROSS EARLY SATURDAY WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HITTING THE WESTERN SLOPES AND ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BEING AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE M/U 40S WEST TO L50S EAST. DESPITE THE PASSING OF A WEAK FRONT SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD 50S ACROSS THE AREA TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 115 PM EST WEDNESDAY THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL REMAIN SEPARATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEASTERN US. ACROSS THE SOUTH...A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL KEEP RAIN FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR THE IMMEDIATE AREA...A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY FALL ALONG WESTERN SLOPES...DRY ELSEWHERE. WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S. ON MONDAY...THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SEND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM AND TRACK ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. A HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE MONDAY EVENING. THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE WILL DEPEND ON WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP TO EXPECT OVERNIGHT. THE WEDGE MOVES OUT QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING RETURNING TO RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IT BECOMES NEGATIVE-TILTED WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TRACKING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO THE COASTAL PIEDMONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR ALL PRECIPITATION TO STAY LIQUID. THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALL PRECIP SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1243 PM EST WEDNESDAY... SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS EXPECTED IN KBLF...KLWB AND KBCB THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KDAN...KLYH AND KROA INTO TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE MVFR CLOUDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. UPSLOPE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT A SMALL CHANCE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT KLWB OR KBLF. WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AND BRING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. IT COULD SPARK SOME MOUNTAIN RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 1252 PM EST TUESDAY... STAGES ARE FALLING ON THE UPPER DAN RIVER FROM DANVILLE UPSTREAM BUT CONTINUING TO RISE DOWNSTREAM. EXPECT MINOR FLOODING OF LOWLAND AREAS. STAGES ALSO CONTINUE TO CLIMB ALONG THE LOWER ROANOKE RIVER IMPACTING LOWLANDS AND SEVERAL ROADS NEAR THE RIVER. FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN VIRGINIA...ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH AFFECTING CHARLOTTE AND HALIFAX COUNTIES, DAN RIVER AT PACES AFFECTING HALIFAX COUNTY AND DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON AFFECTING HALIFAX COUNTY. CHECK LATEST FLS FOR FLOOD DETAILS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KK NEAR TERM...KK SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...RCS/LC AVIATION...AMS/KK HYDROLOGY...KK/PC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KCTP 162154 AFDCTP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 454 PM EST TUE FEB 16 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AS A MESSY STORM EXITS THE REGION THIS EVENING...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. FREEZEUP OF SLUSH AND PONDING OF WATER WILL OCCUR...MAKING FOR LOCALLY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE ON THURSDAY...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH A DECENT WARM UP. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... HAVE CANCELLED REMAINING HEADLINES ACROSS THE N MTNS...WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED. SPOTTY FZDZ APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING. LOW LVL MOISTURE ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOMERSET/CAMBRIA COS IS RESULTING IN LOW CIGS AND K2G4 REPORTING FZFG AT 21Z. MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CLOUD TOP TEMPS TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS. FLS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SULLIVAN/COLUMBIA/LYCOMING COS...WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING HIGH. EXPECT CREEKS TO CREST THIS EVENING...BUT MOST RIVER POINTS ARE NOT IN DANGER OF FLOODING. A FEW ARE FORECAST TO REACH CAUTION STAGES. COOLER AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT IS NOT ALL THAT COLD...AND INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL ONLY REACH UP TO 4K FEET. SO ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL BE JUST MARGINAL WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AROUND 1 INCH EXPECTED ACROSS THE NW MTNS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...TO THE LOWER 30S IN THE FAR SE ZONES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... DID EDGE MAX TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE. OVERALL GRIDS LOOK GOOD. ALSO EDGE DEWPOINTS DOWN SOME. SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR FLOWS INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ REGION SHOULD ONLY SEE A FEW FLURRIES AND SOME OCCASIONAL GLIMPSES OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DUAL LAYER OF CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN MTNS...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SE OF THE MTNS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THU. DID EDGE DEWPOINTS DOWN. LOOKING A SW FLOW OF MILD AND DRY AIR OFF THE HIGH PLAINS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS AIRMASS...SO DID CUT BACK ON POPS WHERE POSSIBLE. ONLY A FEW RAIN SHOWERS IF THAT. OVERALL PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD...DID NUDGE TEMPS A DEGREE HERE AND THERE. COLDER AIR WORKS BACK IN AFTER THE WEEKEND. EC AND OTHER MODELS MORE OFF THE COAST WITH ANY STORM FOR MID WEEK NOW. AS WITH RECENT CASES...COMPLICATED WITH 3 OR MORE PIECES OF UPPER LVL ENERGY. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOW POPS ACROSS THE SE TO MATCH IN WITH OTHERS. THE WEATHER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RUNOFF DURING THE DAY. A NICE DRY SPELL TO DRY THINGS OUT SOME. ENJOY THE BREAK FROM THE RECENT STORMY...WET CONDITIONS. SOME ICE FORMATION WED AND THU NIGHT...BUT LIMITED AMT OF TIME BELOW FREEZING FOR VERY MUCH RIVER/STREAM ICE FORMATION. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR. THIS WILL SPREAD INTO THE NE BY EVENING. RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN AS FLOW TURNS TO THE NW BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM. WINDS PICK UP WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT TURNING WEST AND GUSTING TO 20KTS IN MOST AREAS. ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH ON WED...KEEPING RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST. THEY MAY SPILL INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS FOR A TIME...BUT OTHERWISE CENTRAL AND SE WILL REMAIN VFR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE STATE ON THURSDAY...THEN LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. OUTLOOK... WED...ANOTHER WAVE SLIDES THROUGH KEEPING RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE OVER THE WEST /AND POSS CENTRAL/ ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW. THU...MAINLY VFR. FRI...MAINLY VFR. PERHAPS A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY LATE. SAT-SUN...MAINLY VFR. A FEW RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/LAMBERT/MARTIN NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN LONG TERM...MARTIN AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KIND 091405 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 905 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 WINTER WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD ON CENTRAL INDIANA WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF ARCTIC BLASTS WILL PROVIDE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS A COUPLE OF TIMES DURING THE WEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AROUND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM.../TODAY/ ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST. MORE PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS WERE JUST TO OUR EAST IN OHIO...WHERE MUCH HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS WERE OCCURRING. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA THAT SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE OTHER AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS LOOK TO SLIDE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO LIKELY POPS THIS MORNING FAR NORTHEAST AND HIGH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY AND A SURFACE TROUGH LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH. THIS TOO WILL HELP INCREASE SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATES GREATEST THREAT FOR INTENSE SQUALLS WILL LIE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT ODDS OF VISIBILITY OF A MILE OR LESS IS LOW. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AS WELL. EXPECTING...ON AVERAGE...AN INCH OR LESS 12Z-24Z. THUS WITH THE LOW COVERAGE OF SQUALLS EXPECTED AND THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS...HAVE DECIDED AGAINST GOING WITH AN ADVISORY TODAY. THERE WILL STILL BE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS AND VISIBILITY DOWN TO AROUND 2 MILES THOUGH. IT IS FEBRUARY IN INDIANA AFTER ALL. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE THREATS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SNOW AROUND FEEL THAT MOS IS TOO HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY. TRIMMED THEM A BIT. && .SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/ ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 FOCUS REMAINS ON SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO USE A BLEND. ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS INCREASE TONIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA COULD SEE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THUS RAISED MODEL POPS AND WENT LIKELY FAR NORTHEAST...TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...TO LOW CHANCE FAR WEST. CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO EXIT. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH AGAIN THE THREAT OF SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE LOWERING OF POPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. HOWEVER KEPT CHANCE POPS ALL DAY FAR NORTHEAST DUE TO THE LAKE SNOW SHOWER THREAT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGH EARLY WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT FEEL THAT ANY SNOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SO CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THEN. GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO MID WEEK. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 245 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 BIG MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES WILL BE A MAJOR HURDLE TO PARTS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST INCLUDING POPS AND TEMPERATURES. VERY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. THIS IS CAUSING SIGNIFICANT SHEARING OF ANY PACIFIC WAVE THAT CRESTS THE UPPER WESTERN RIDGE AND HEADS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THAT SAID MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z ECMWF...CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH CONFIDENCE LOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL SNOW CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THEN...MODELS AGREE THAT JAMES BAY UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD TO THE OHIO VALLEY. ARCTIC HIGH WILL THE MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE TO RETURN ON SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES WILL BE WITH ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL EFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS MOVE A STRONGER WAVE OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND MOVE IT TO ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS BRINGING A TRAILING FRONT ACROSS ON MONDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAD THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INDIANA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EURO SOLUTION WOULD BRING DECENT SNOW AMOUNTS TO CENTRAL INDIANA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IF THE GFS VERIFIES. EITHER WAY...WILL LEAVE SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY DEPEND A LOT ON SNOW COVER AS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER AND AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. NUDGED REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THAT PERIOD...BUT IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO CLOSE TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK PER THE BLEND. && .AVIATION /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR KIND 091200Z KIND TAF/... ISSUED AT 900 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO REMOVE CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM STATIONS ACROSS THE REGION NOT REACHING THAT LOW. STILL CARRYING 2 MILES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND THIS COULD GO LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT COLD CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF IFR VSBY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWER...ESPECIALLY AT LAF AND IND. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE BACK END OF THE BROAD TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL STILL HOLD ON TO MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER PER MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND LAMP AND SREF MVFR PROBABILITIES. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....MK AVIATION...TUCEK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KIND 091010 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 510 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 WINTER WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD ON CENTRAL INDIANA WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF ARCTIC BLASTS WILL PROVIDE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS A COUPLE OF TIMES DURING THE WEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AROUND MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM.../TODAY/ ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST. MORE PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS WERE JUST TO OUR EAST IN OHIO...WHERE MUCH HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS WERE OCCURRING. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA THAT SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE OTHER AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS LOOK TO SLIDE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO LIKELY POPS THIS MORNING FAR NORTHEAST AND HIGH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY AND A SURFACE TROUGH LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH. THIS TOO WILL HELP INCREASE SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATES GREATEST THREAT FOR INTENSE SQUALLS WILL LIE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT ODDS OF VISIBILITY OF A MILE OR LESS IS LOW. QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AS WELL. EXPECTING...ON AVERAGE...AN INCH OR LESS 12Z-24Z. THUS WITH THE LOW COVERAGE OF SQUALLS EXPECTED AND THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS...HAVE DECIDED AGAINST GOING WITH AN ADVISORY TODAY. THERE WILL STILL BE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS AND VISIBILITY DOWN TO AROUND 2 MILES THOUGH. IT IS FEBRUARY IN INDIANA AFTER ALL. WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE THREATS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SNOW AROUND FEEL THAT MOS IS TOO HIGH WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY. TRIMMED THEM A BIT. && .SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/ ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 FOCUS REMAINS ON SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO USE A BLEND. ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS INCREASE TONIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA COULD SEE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THUS RAISED MODEL POPS AND WENT LIKELY FAR NORTHEAST...TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY POPS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...TO LOW CHANCE FAR WEST. CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO EXIT. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH AGAIN THE THREAT OF SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE LOWERING OF POPS THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. HOWEVER KEPT CHANCE POPS ALL DAY FAR NORTHEAST DUE TO THE LAKE SNOW SHOWER THREAT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGH EARLY WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT FEEL THAT ANY SNOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SO CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THEN. GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO MID WEEK. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 245 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 BIG MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES WILL BE A MAJOR HURDLE TO PARTS OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST INCLUDING POPS AND TEMPERATURES. VERY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM. THIS IS CAUSING SIGNIFICANT SHEARING OF ANY PACIFIC WAVE THAT CRESTS THE UPPER WESTERN RIDGE AND HEADS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THAT SAID MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z ECMWF...CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH CONFIDENCE LOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL SNOW CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THEN...MODELS AGREE THAT JAMES BAY UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD TO THE OHIO VALLEY. ARCTIC HIGH WILL THE MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE TO RETURN ON SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES WILL BE WITH ANOTHER WINTER STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL EFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS MOVE A STRONGER WAVE OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND MOVE IT TO ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS BRINGING A TRAILING FRONT ACROSS ON MONDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAD THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INDIANA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EURO SOLUTION WOULD BRING DECENT SNOW AMOUNTS TO CENTRAL INDIANA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IF THE GFS VERIFIES. EITHER WAY...WILL LEAVE SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY DEPEND A LOT ON SNOW COVER AS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER AND AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. NUDGED REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THAT PERIOD...BUT IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO CLOSE TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK PER THE BLEND. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 09/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/... ISSUED AT 510 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT COLD CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWER...ESPECIALLY AT LAF AND IND. WILL ALSO LIKELY NEED A TEMPO IFR CEILING AT IND THROUGH 14Z OR SO BASED ON TRENDS AND LAMP IFR PROBABILITIES. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE BACK END OF THE BROAD TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL STILL HOLD ON TO MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER PER MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND LAMP AND SREF MVFR PROBABILITIES. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....MK AVIATION...MK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMFR 052243 AFDMFR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 243 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SHORT TERM...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING INSIDE LONGITUDE 130W THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING. WE ARE CONTINUING THE WIND ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF KLAMATH/LAKE/MODOC COUNTIES. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE BRINGS RAIN TO THE COOS COUNTY COAST BETWEEN 4-5 PM THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTY AROUND 6 PM. EXPECT BETWEEN 020-0.25" OF RAIN AT THE COAST WITH AREAS OF HALF INCH NEAR CAPE BLANCO AND GOLD BEACH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE UMPQUA BASIN LATER THIS EVENING AND WE EXPECT AROUND 0.20" IN THE ROSEBURG AREA. RAIN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL BAND CLOSELY INTO THE ROGUE VALLEY SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND ALMOST 0.10" IS FORECAST FOR THE MEDFORD AREA. WESTERLY FLOW COULD WRING OUT MORE PRECIPITATION OVER THE CASCADES BUT OTHERWISE NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CASCADES EXCEPT AROUND 0.05" IN NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. ON SATURDAY A WARM WILL PASS TO THE WEST OF SOUTHERN OREGON COAST WITH NO PRECIPITATION INLAND. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CHANGE TO THE STRONG RIDGING FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME DURING THIS WET SEASON THAT WE SEE PERSISTENT RIDGING...SOMETHING WE WERE MORE ACCUSTOMED TO SEEING DURING THE LAST 2 YEARS. THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS RIDGING IS VERY WARM AND DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG INVERSION AT NIGHT. IF THIS PATTERN HAD HAPPENED EARLIER IN THE SEASON LIKE DECEMBER OR JANUARY..WE WOULD EXPECT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS TO BE MORE PERSISTENT DURING THE DAY. SINCE WE ARE MOVING INTO FEBRUARY..THE GRADUALLY HIGHER SUN ANGLE SHOULD HELP BURN OFF THE FOG BY MID MORNING AND WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. IN SPITE OF THE WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES..WE ARE STILL CONCERNED WITH MIXING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT MEDFORD AND OTHER KEY STATIONS SHOW VERY WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT WILL LIMIT MIXING TO JUST 2000 FEET OR SO. HOWEVER WE MAY SEE AFTERNOON WINDS WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE BURNING INDEX A BIT. THE NEXT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT WHETHER WE WILL SEE PERSISTENT AIR STAGNATION DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LEAD TO VERY WARM NIGHT AT BOTH BROOKINGS AND NORTH BEND. THE OFFSHORE WINDS WEAKEN A BIT AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THE AIR MASS IS SO WARM AT H850 THAT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST AND IN THE COASTAL RANGE WILL REMAIN WARM INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE VERY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FOR THE KLAMATH/TULELAKE BASIN AS WELL AS THE GOOSE LAKE BASIN. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE 15-20 DEG RANGE FOR THE KLAMATH/TULELAKE AND GOOSE LAKE BASINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS LOW CLOUDS THAT COULD LINGER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. /FB .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE STRONG RIDGE THAT WILL BE OVER US THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN OPEN THE DOOR FOR STORM SYSTEMS TO REACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS OFTEN IS THE CASE...HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS...LIKE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS...REMAINS LOW. MODEL DEPICTIONS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVING IN LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE ECMWF FASTEST AND STRONGEST. OFTEN THE FIRST FRONT TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE IS FAIRLY WEAK...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...ENDS UP WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE. THE GFS/CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND HERE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY FROM THE CASCADES WEST WITH SNOW LEVELS MOSTLY ABOVE 8000 FEET. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK AT SOME POINT THURSDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH UPSTREAM DEEPENS OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 7000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LOWER TO 4000-5000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. SPILDE && .AVIATION...FOR THE 05/18Z TAF CYCLE...FOG HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO BREAK AROUND THE ROGUE VALLEY THIS MORNING RESULTING IN LIFR. IT IS PRETTY SHALLOW, SO EXPECT IT TO BURN OFF TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL POSSIBLE AT NORTH BEND FOR A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL WINDS BEGIN TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST, THEN MOVE INLAND TO THE CASCADES THIS EVENING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND WIDESPREAD TERRAIN OBSCURATION. MVFR IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN VALLEYS BEHIND THE FRONT. IFR PROBABLY DEVELOPS IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS AT ROSEBURG, MEDFORD AND KLAMATH FALLS BY SATURDAY MORNING. SPILDE && .MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PST FRI FEB 5 2016... BUOYS CURRENTLY SHOWING 16 FEET WITH GALES IN THE OUTER WATERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. EVENTUALLY, THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS AND GALES WILL SUBSIDE. STILL EXPECTING STEEP SEAS BEHIND THIS FRONT, SO A SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE WINDS DIE DOWN. PAST SATURDAY, MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WITH VERY WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE STEEP SEAS ENTERING THE WATERS TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. -SMITH && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ030-031. CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-376. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376. $$ FJB/MAS/MAS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KMLB 040812 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 312 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016 .DISCUSSION... ...COOLER/UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING EVEN COOLER NEXT WEEK... CURRENT...CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AGAIN FOR ONE MORE MORNING. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND L70S WITH DEWPOINT VALUES WELL INTO THE 60S AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA. SOUTH- SOUTHEAST LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. WE MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY PATCHY FOG...ESPECIALLY AROUND ANY SMOLDERING PRESCRIBED BURNS...BUT AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY BE THE BIGGER THREAT EARLY IN THE PERIOD...SHOULD THEY DEVELOP. TODAY-TONIGHT...DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WILL WEAKEN AND GET SQUEEZED EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH THE APPROACH OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR COVERAGE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH SSE- SSW SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. WHILE WE MAY SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS DO NOT FEEL A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS WARRANTED. WINDS WILL BECOME NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING WITH BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM...THOUGH WILL STILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN CLOSER TO PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES TOWARD/INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION DURING THE DAY BUT THE LARGER UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING. AS WITH PREVIOUS WEATHER SYSTEMS THIS SEASON WE WILL HAVE IMPRESSIVE JET STREAM WIND FIELDS WITH 80-100 KT WINDS ALOFT JUST TO THE NORTH AND THE FAVORABLE RIGHT- REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET NEAR THE AREA PROMOTING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL POOL TOWARD 2 INCHES AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COVERAGE WARNING AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF SHOWER. THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT NEARS. GREATEST CHANCES SOUTH OF I- 4 SLOWLY INCREASE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS FROM SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. A FEW CELLS COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG BUT IT APPEARS ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH. RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ARE 87 FOR DAB, MCO AND VRB WITH MLB COMING IN AT 86 FOR A HIGH MAX. FEEL THAT WE WILL NOT REACH THESE VALUES THOUGH MLB MAY COME THE CLOSEST. CLOUD THICKNESS AND ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO PLAY A ROLE IN HOW WARM WE GET TODAY. STILL UNSEASONABLY WARM HIGHS IN THE M-U70S NORTH OF I-4 WITH U70S/L80S ALL IN PLAY FURTHER SOUTHWARD. MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS DOWN THE PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE L-M40S NORTH OF I-4...U40S/L50S ACROSS THE REST OF THE INTERIOR. AREAS FROM MLB TO SUA ALONG THE COAST WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 54 TO 60 DEGREES FOR MINS. FRI-SAT...POST FRONTAL COOLING WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF AS ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP BY FRI AFTERNOON...AT ANY RATE IT WILL BE A COOL AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT TO THE U50 TO L60S WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MARINE SOURCE STRATO CU MOVING WELL INLAND AS WINDS VEER INCREASINGLY ONSHORE. AN EAST COAST TROUGH WL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FRI AS A RESULT OF DRAINAGE FLOW DOWN PENINSULA COMBINING WITH MORE DIRECT ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE MARINE AREA. PRESENCE OF THIS CONVERGENT AREA WL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST AND TO SOME DEGREE INLAND WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS...ESP ALONG THE COAST. SATURDAY A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS THE SE STATES WL RAPIDLY ACCENTUATE THE EC TROUGH WITH RAPID SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT MOSTLY EAST OFTHE STATE OVER THE MARINE AREA. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY A LITTLE MORE SEWARD THAN THE EC AND THE CURRENT FORECAST BLENDS THE TWO SOLNS WITH A MENTIONABLE RAIN CHC INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHC IS CURRENTLY DEPICTED SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE AREA. NEXT WEEK...AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE END TO THE WEEK CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK BEGIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND COOL FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. REINFORCEMENT OF CONTINENTAL AIR AROUND WED WILL BRING 30S TO A LARGE PART OF THE AREA BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION... PATCHY FOG PROSPECTS LOOK LOW THIS MORNING WITH SOME SPOTTY LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR TAFS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA LATE TODAY AND PRESS THROUGH THE COVERAGE WARNING AREA DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. MORNING SSE/S WINDS WILL VEER TO SSW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL BECOME NEAR BREEZY/GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PGRAD TIGHTENS. MAINLY SHOWERY PCPN CHANCES DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING CHANCES FURTHER SOUTHWARD LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSRA THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. MVFR IN SHRA'S WITH SOME IFR CIGS NEAR THE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATE TONIGHT FOR CIGS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS ECFL. && .MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND FURTHER SOUTHWARD DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SSE/S WINDS WILL PROMPT CONTINUANCE OF CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS OVER THE OPEN ATLC TODAY...REMAINING 15KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS NEARER THE COAST. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS...OCNLY TO GALE FORCE. WILL INITIATE AN SCA NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET FOR 00Z/7PM AND 03Z/10PM FOR MARINE LEGS FURTHER SOUTH. WILL ALLOW FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS TO MONITOR AND UPGRADE TO A GALE WATCH/WARNING FOR LATER TONIGHT ACROSS A PORTION OF THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD THE NEED ARISE. SEAS GENERALLY 3-4 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE TODAY. TONIGHT THRU 12Z FRI MORNING...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD (NORTH TO SOUTH) 7-10 FT OFFSHORE NORTH OF ST. LUCIE AND 5-8 FT NEAR SHORE NORTH OF THE CAPE. AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH THIS THREAT INCREASING...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR POINTS FURTHER SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORM THREAT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FILLS IN SOUTHEASTWARD. FAST OFFSHORE-MOVING CELLS WITH MAIN THREATS LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS ALL IN PLAY FOR LATER TODAY/EVENING. FRI-SUN...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS OVER ALL THE WATERS FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS. A TEMPORARY LULL IN GRADIENT WINDS DURING SAT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN SEA STATE...HOWEVER RAPID GENESIS OF A LOW OFF THE FL EAST COAST TO BAHAMAS EARLY SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA DURING SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EWD FROM THE GULF WL IMPROVE WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 78 43 58 48 / 100 90 10 30 MCO 82 50 59 46 / 80 80 10 20 MLB 83 54 62 53 / 40 70 10 20 VRB 84 56 61 56 / 30 60 10 20 LEE 76 44 59 44 / 100 90 0 10 SFB 80 47 58 46 / 90 80 10 20 ORL 80 48 59 51 / 80 80 10 20 FPR 84 56 62 55 / 20 60 10 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM- FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM- VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM- VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM- SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDTX 220100 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 800 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016 .UPDATE... AN ENHANCED REGION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL MI INTO THE NRN DETROIT SUBURBS HAVE LET TO AN INCREASE IN RADAR RETURNS IN THIS REGION OVER THE LAST HOUR. THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS TO BE RATHER SHALLOW WITH A DEEP INVERSION NEAR 4000 FT. THE TEMP AT THE BASE OF THIS INVERSION IS HOWEVER -14C AND MOISTURE DEPTH IS RESPECTABLE. TEMPS WITHIN THE MOIST LAYER MAY ACTUALLY BE A TOUCH COLDER NORTH AND EAST OF THE DTX OBSERVED SOUNDING. SO THESE RETURNS ARE LIKELY GENERATING SOME DECENT DENDRITES. IN LIGHT OF THESE OBSERVATIONS...AN UPDATE TO CARRY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT IS NECESSARY. THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCALS TO PICK UP A DUSTING. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 602 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016 FORCING ALONG AN ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AIDED BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTED A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST HOUR HAVE SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE LIGHT SNOW AS THE ELEVATED FORCING DIMINISHES. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL STILL HOWEVER SUPPORT AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND FLURRIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE BETTER SFC CONVERGENCE TO SINK SOUTH. CURRENT CEILING HEIGHTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE MUCH HIGHER DUE TO A LITTLE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND HIGHER INVERSION HEIGHTS. THERE IS CONCERN THAT AS THE WINDS TURN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THAT CIGS WILL LIFT CONSIDERABLY. THE 18Z MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RECENT HI RES SOLUTIONS DO HOWEVER SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON WILL ALLOW SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR AND/OR LOW END VFR CIGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WELL INTO FRIDAY. FOR DTW...THERE HAS BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS ACROSS METRO DETROIT THIS PAST HOUR AS A LITTLE DRIER AIR HAS LIFTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY IN CIGS DURING THE EVENING. AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO SINK SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING...THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND FLURRIES. LATER IN THE NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING THERE IS A GOOD CHANGE THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME OFF LAKE HURON WILL REMAIN FOCUSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF METRO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A PREVAILING MVFR CIG FOR THE TIME BEING. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * MEDIUM IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 639 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016 UPDATE... WEAK UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ALONG A MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SRN LOWER MI IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE AND A LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS EFFECTIVELY PRODUCED A LARGE REGION OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE LARGER SCALE FORCING WILL WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING. THIS HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN A DECREASE IN BOTH INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO HOWEVER SUGGEST SUPPER SATURATION WITH RESPECT TO ICE IN THE LOW CLOUDS...WITHIN THE THERMAL REGION FAVORABLE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH OF ICE CRYSTALS. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE NIGHT. AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT...A REGION OF ENHANCED BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST BY LATEST HI RES SOLUTIONS TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY SUSTAIN A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF FLURRIES /AND POSSIBLY EVEN LEAD TO A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT/. AT THIS POINT THE EVENING UPDATE WILL INCLUDE SOME FLURRIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 258 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016 DISCUSSION... TRANQUIL STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE AREA AS MAIN ACTION WILL TAKE PLACE ALONG THE EAST COAST. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA IS PRODUCING CLOUDS AND AREAS OF MAINLY FLURRIES. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE INTO THE NIGHT AND SO WILL FLURRIES. STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE WESTERN GOM WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS UP THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK WAVE IN THE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND GET ABSORBED BY THE SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM. THIS WAVE WILL JUST BRING CLOUDS TO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE SCARCE AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE BLOCKED BY SOUTHERN STORM. 500MB RIDGING WILL NOSE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES FROM THE SW US THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH WEEK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL BRING DRY SLIGHTLY WARMER THEN NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN JET WILL SKIM THE NORTHERN LAKES SUNDAY AND MAY BRING A BIT MORE CLOUDS TO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB. THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL COME FROM A STRONG PACIFIC WAVE THAT WILL MOVE ASHORE THE WEST COAST SATURDAY AND HEAD EASTWARD SPINNING UP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND. SURFACE TROUGHINESS WILL EXTEND BACK FROM THE LOW AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEK ENHANCING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STALLED OVER THE GREAT LAKES LEADING TO RELATIVELY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STRONG LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST PROVIDING A BRIEF INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN A LIMITED PERIOD OF HIGHER WAVE GROWTH ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE.......SC AVIATION.....SC DISCUSSION...DRC MARINE.......DRK YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 212114 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 314 PM CST THU JAN 21 2016 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT .TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MAY SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES IN THE FAR NORTH INTO LATE AFTERNOON...WITH ATTENTION THEN TURNING TO AN APPROACHING WEAK WAVE. EXPECTING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE WAVE DRAWS NEAR...WITH MAYBE A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW BY MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT...SO WENT WITH LOWS TOWARD THE MILDER MODEL SOLUTIONS. RAISED POPS A BIT MORE IN THE EAST FOR THE LAKE EFFECT TOMORROW. SFC TO 850 MB TEMP DIFFERENCE WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 13C TO 16C FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT. THE TOP OF THE SATURATED LAYER SHOULD GET INTO ICE CRYSTALS...REACHING UP TO AROUND -10C TO -13C. SFC TO 850 MEAN WIND WILL BE PRETTY STEADY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO SET UP A BAND BY AFTERNOON. WENT GENERALLY A HALF INCH TO AN INCH WITH SNOW TOTALS...BUT CERTAINLY COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE LOCALLY...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BAND SETS UP. NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. .FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT AS DELTA T/S LOWER WITH 850 MB COLD POCKET SLIDING EAST AND REDUCED FETCH AS NORTHEAST WINDS EASE AND VEER EAST...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS SURFACE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND RESULTING OMEGA LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT CLOUD DEPTH DECREASES WITH THE REDUCED FETCH...DROPPING THE TOP OF THE CLOUD LAYER OUT OF THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE SO NO POPS PAST 12Z SATURDAY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z SATURDAY. THOUGH 850 MB TEMPS SLOWLY RISE...925 MB TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AND DECENT NOCTURNAL INVERSION FORMS OVER INLAND LOCATIONS AS WINDS EASE WITH RIDGING. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 ABOVE INLAND WHILE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE IN THE LOWER 20S. .SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH RIDGING HOLDS OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY BETWEEN EAST COAST CYCLONE AND TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SHORT WAVE PASSES WEST TO EAST ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD CLOSE TO THE FORCING ALONG THE TRACK OF THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...SO DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ALL THE MODELS SLOWLY RAISE TEMPS WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS WAVE BUT TO VARYING MAGNITUDES. NAM INDICATING A 925-850MB COOL POCKET MOVING ACROSS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK VORT MAX. FOLLOWED CONSENSUS BLEND THAT BRINGS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S SATURDAY AND LOW TO MID 30S SUNDAY...WITH LOWS AROUND 20 SATURDAY NIGHT AND IN THE LOW 20S SUNDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE BASE OF DEEP WESTERN TROUGH INDUCES SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE POPS INCREASE TO LIKELY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM NRN MO MONDAY MORNING TO THE NRN IL/SRN WI BORDER AREA BY MONDAY EVENING...AND NEAR GEORGIAN BAY BY 12Z TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF LOW HAS MODELS DIFFERING ON THERMAL PROFILE OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING ALL SNOW FOR THE CWA...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST... WHILE THE CANADIAN GEMNH ALLOWS FOR MORE OF A MIX. WILL GO WITH A COLLABORATIVE RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE SE 1/4 IN THE MORNING GOING OVER TO ALL SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT PCPN THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...WITH TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION...FORECAST QPF AND SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS PRODUCE WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS... POSSIBLY NEARING 3 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST. NO STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE MONDAY/TUESDAY LOW SO TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...SEASONAL NORMS UNDER BUSY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. AGAIN SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF NEXT SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHICH LEADS TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED AFTER A DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY HANG AROUND INTO FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES IN THE FAR NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WEAK WAVES APPROACHES. STILL LOOKS LIKE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SEEMS TO BE FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. GENERAL AMOUNTS OF HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH ARE LIKELY...THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALWAYS POSSIBLE WITH LAKE EFFECT EVENTS. && .MARINE... COULD SEE WIND GUSTS APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY...WITH WAVES NEARING 4 FEET IN ICE FREE AREAS BY EVENING. SETUP LOOKS TOO BORDERLINE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT THOUGH. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...REM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDLH 211754 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 1154 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016 LIGHT SNOWFALL REDUCING VISIBILITY TO A MILE AT TIMES HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA RESULTING IN A COATING ACCUMULATING ON MANY AREA HIGHWAYS IN THIS REGION. IT SEEMS THE SUBTLE INCOMING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OUTPERFORMING EARLIER EXPECTATIONS...SO DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS/WX AND ADD A LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IN WHERE THIS WAVE IS PROJECTED TO MOVE...GENERALLY EAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. HAVE THE AREA OF SNOW DIMINISHING TOWARDS 00Z BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER IN TIME. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 208 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016 A SHORT WAVE WITH SURFACE REFLECTION TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA TODAY. LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE MAIN AREA OF SN ACCUMULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE/VORT MAX WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AREAS/PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TODAY AS THE DLHWRF/NAM AND GFS ARE ALL SUGGESTING LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS SKIM BY THE BRAINERD LAKES TO HAYWARD LAKES REGION. FOCUS TURNS TO LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AND INCH EXPECTED ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE AND OVER THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TRAJECTORIES SWILL TURN NORTHERLY...THEN NORTHEASTERLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME...RESULTING IN A AREA OF SFC CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED LIFT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 208 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016 AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWEST CONUS INTO MANITOBA FRIDAY EVENING WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHLAND. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING 850MB TEMPS TO ZERO TO 4C ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY AND WE HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS WAVE WILL TRACK...SO SOME ADJUSTMENT TO THE POPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE MODELS CONVERGE. ANY PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH. WE KEPT THE PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW...BUT THERE COULD BE A LIGHT MIX. AS THE UPPER WAVE AND A SURFACE LOW CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO ONTARIO SATURDAY NIGHT THEY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHLAND. WE AGAIN ONLY HAVE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR NORTH AT THIS TIME. WE KEPT MOST AREAS DRY ON SUNDAY AS THERE IS A LACK OF FORCING. THERE MAY BE SOME FLURRIES/PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT OCCURS THOUGH AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT. WE WILL MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBLE INCLUSION AS WE NEAR THAT TIME. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE REGION MONDAY AS A NORTHERN SHORTWAVE MEETS UP WITH A SOUTHERN WAVE. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL LOOKS UNLIKELY WITH MOST AREAS JUST SEEING LIGHT ACCUMULATION. THE SOUTH SHORE COULD RECEIVE MORE SNOWFALL THOUGH AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE LOW AND ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL BE PRESENT FOR LAKE EFFECT. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. BOTH MODELS DO SHOW A CLIPPER SYSTEM IMPACTING THE NORTHLAND...BUT THE ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER BRINGING IT THROUGH. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TWENTIES...AND WARM A COUPLE DEGREES SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING TO THE LOWER TO MID TWENTIES MONDAY. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER TWENTIES. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016 OVC CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS AND VSBYS HAVE VARIED BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THE TREND TO CONTINUE. VORT MAX/SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD BRING IN A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT BRD AND HYR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AT HYR...ANOTHER ROUND OF FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...BEFORE RETURNING TO IFR BETWEEN 22.04Z AND 22.08Z. IFR AND OCCASIONALLY LIFR VSBYS AT INL SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOCAL INCREASE IN CLOUD DEPTH PER VISIBLE SATELLITE. EXPECT VSBYS TO IMPROVE TO IFR BY MID-AFTERNOON AND INTO MVFR CAT BY EVENING AS LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT DRIFTS EAST OF THE TERMINAL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT MOVE INTO THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 20 4 18 8 / 30 10 10 0 INL 15 -4 16 9 / 30 10 0 0 BRD 20 0 18 7 / 30 10 0 0 HYR 22 8 22 4 / 10 20 10 0 ASX 22 11 21 8 / 10 30 20 0 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...JJM SHORT TERM...GRANING LONG TERM...MELDE AVIATION...HUYCK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KLOT 210842 AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 242 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016 .SHORT TERM... 242 AM CST THROUGH FRIDAY... BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING...STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY MARGINAL SET-UP AND IF ANYTHING A BIT LESS FAVORABLE THAN YESTERDAY. SUSPECT THERE WILL INDEED BE ECHOS COMING IN OFF THE LAKE...BUT WITH TEMPS AT THE LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL HARDLY SUPPORT OF ICE NUCLEI (AROUND -12C) AND SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH THINKING THAT P-TYPE WILL BE MORE SNOW GRAIN AND/OR TINY FLAKES WHICH WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ACCUMULATE MUCH. TRICKY ONE WHAT TO DO WITH POPS AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP AROUND...BUT UNLIKELY TO BE MEASURABLE SO HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH END CHANCE POPS AND WILL GO WITH SOME SORT OF CATEGORICAL COVERAGE WORDING. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE THE RULE THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH THE HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 20S TODAY AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY. IZZI && .LONG TERM... 242 AM CST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... BIG EAST COAST BLIZZARD WILL UNDOUBTEDLY GARNER MOST OF THE WEATHER ATTENTION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER OUR OWN LOCAL WEATHER EXCITEMENT WILL BE THE ANTICIPATED END TO OUR STREAK OF BELOW AVERAGE AND BELOW FREEZING WEATHER. UPPRE RIDGING AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AND EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MINIMAL SNOW COVER MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM NICELY INTO THE 30S. BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUPPORT MID 30S FOR HIGHS SUNDAY...BUT WITH A STOUT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND 925MB TEMPS PROGGED TO APPROACH 0C THINK THAT 40F IS ATTAINABLE...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAT HAVE VERY LITTLE SNOW COVER. SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO AFFECT REGION MONDAY WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL INDICATING WE WILL BE CLOSE TO THE RAIN SNOW LINE. ASSUMING PERFECT PROGS FROM THE MODELS AT THIS DISTANCE WOULD SUPPORT SOME RAIN SHOWERS PROBABLY CHANGING TO A BIT OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING MONDAY NIGHT...BUT AT THIS DISTANCE AND WITH SUCH A CHAOTIC AND HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW IN OUR NECK OF THE HEMISPHERE ITS QUITE PLAUSIBLE THAT MODEL SOLUTIONS COULD WAVER AROUND A BIT BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. IZZI && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z... * NONE. KJB //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z... A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KT OR LESS. HOWEVER...BY EARLY THIS EVENING...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHERLY...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL FRIDAY. THERE IS A POSSIBLY OF SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AT KDPA AND KRFD. HOWEVER...ANY LOWER VSBYS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHEN SOME MVFR CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. KJB //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z... * HIGH FOR ALL ELEMENTS. KJB //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z FRIDAY-12Z WEDNESDAY...UPDATED 00Z... * FRIDAY...CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. * SATURDAY...DRY/VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS. * SUNDAY...DRY. MVFR POSSIBLE. SOUTHWEST WINDS. * MONDAY...CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW. MVFR LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE. WESTERLY WINDS. * TUESDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW/MVFR. WESTERLY WINDS. && .MARINE... 115 AM CST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE LAKE TODAY. HOWEVER...ON FRIDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THESE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF 15 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORES. ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP AROUND 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. LOOKING AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THIS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. KJB && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KHNX 201053 AFDHNX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA 253 AM PST WED JAN 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TODAY AND THURSDAY. DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER ALL BUT THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY WERE BOUTS OF FOG WILL OCCUR. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. && .DISCUSSION...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ALONG WITH PLENTY OF WET GROUND, DENSE FOG HAS INDEED FORMED IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. GEOCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASING AREA OF LIFR (LIMITED INSTRUMENT FLIGHT RULES) VISIBILITY DOWN THE CENTER OF THE SJV AND IT IS EXPANDING. OUTSIDE THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY WILL OCCUR. FORECAST MODELS KEEP THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FRIDAY. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FEATURE AND NOW ARE BRINGING THE INITIAL FRONTAL BAND INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY FRIDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A WEAKENING ENTITY. A SECONDARY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ENERGY AND MOISTURE. LOOKING AT THE EXTENDED MODEL PROJECTIONS IT APPEARS THAT THIS WEEKEND'S SYSTEM MAY BE THE LAST IN THE LONG SERIES OF STORMS. MODELS THEN SHIFT THE MAIN JET STREAM TO THE NORTH NEXT WEEK AND THIS BRINGS THE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. GIVEN THIS, THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLY COULD BE IN FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDS AND FOG WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA HAS DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. && .AVIATION... IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...AREAS OF LIFE IN FOG BETWEEN 12Z-20Z WED AND 20Z WED. IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA FOOTHILLS...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 18Z WED WITH A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND KERN MOUNTAINS...AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WITH IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU 18Z WED. IMPROVING INTO VFR CONDITIONS BY 20Z WED. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... NONE. && .CERTAINTY... THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH. THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM. CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS SITE DATE HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR KFAT 01-20 72:1994 36:1937 55:1901 24:1963 KFAT 01-21 72:1994 39:1937 56:1896 19:1937 KFAT 01-22 70:1994 35:1962 52:1888 25:1945 KBFL 01-20 77:1912 40:1940 56:1969 21:1922 KBFL 01-21 79:1981 40:1937 60:1942 19:1937 KBFL 01-22 76:1981 38:1962 60:1981 19:1937 && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING CAZ089>092. && $$ PUBLIC...DUDLEY AVN/FW...MV SYNOPSIS...DUDLEY WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KAPX 172102 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 402 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 .NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER...MORE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. ..THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE CONTINUES TO CHURN... ANOTHER SOMEWHAT SURPRISE FILLED LAKE EFFECT DAY. THE MESOLOW ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN COMBINATION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE AGGRAVATE TROUGH HAS POUNDED PORTIONS OF LEELANAU COUNTY AND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION TODAY...WITH AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER AND THANKFULLY...THIS BAND APPEARS TO BE FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST BEHIND SAID TROUGH. CONTINUED EXCELLENT LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS IN PLACE TONIGHT. VERY FAVORABLE THERMAL (DELTA TS IN THE MIDDLE 20S) AND MOISTURE (MEAN 850-700 MB RH 80 TO 90 PERCENT) REGIMES WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERSION HEIGHTS APPROACHING VERY IMPRESSIVE 10,000 FEET. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SIGNIFICANT NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT BANDING TO SET UP LATER TODAY WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY. THE BANDS SHOULD SHIFT FURTHER INLAND FROM WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO WILL ADD MISSAUKEE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES INTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS MACKINAC COUNTY IN EASTERN UPPER. WILL ALSO EXTEND THESE ADVISORIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY. ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ADVISORY COUNTIES OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. ...A GENERAL TWO INCHES OR LESS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR UNDER A HALF INCH NEAR SAGINAW BAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO AROUND SAULT STE MARIE TO THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE EXCEPT FOR THE MIDDLE TEENS RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE. && .SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS THROUGH MONDAY. PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: BOWLING BALL OF COLD ANOMALIES WILL BE SLOWLY ROTATING OFF TO OUR EAST MONDAY. THIS...AND A RETURN TO A MORE AGGRESSIVE PACIFIC PATTERN WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME TO OCCUR THROUGH THIS WEEK. STILL AN EXCELLENT SET-UP FOR LAKE SNOWS MONDAY...TARGETING THE TRADITIONAL SNOWBELTS OF BOTH PENINSULAS. THE MORE ZONAL FLAVOR TO THE FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE AFTER MONDAY...WITH READINGS FALLING JUST SHORT OF NORMAL LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: LAKE SNOW EVOLUTION AND SNOW AMOUNTS MONDAY. DETAILS: LAKE SNOW GUNS SHOULD BE GOING FULL BORE HEADING INTO MONDAY. LAKE SNOW PARAMETERS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND 10 KFT LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS (800+ LAKE CAPE). PER THE USUAL...REAL FOCUS FOR MOST INTENSE SNOWS WILL ALIGN ALONG ZONE OF MAX SURFACE CONVERGENCE...WHICH SHOULD FOCUS ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGHING EXTENDING BACK NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL LAKE HURON INTO WHITEFISH BAY. BREAKING UP THE BIG WATERS: LAKE SUPERIOR: HAVE SOME REAL CONCERNS ABOUT AN ENHANCED SNOW BAND FOCUSING INTO NORTHWEST CHIPPEWA COUNTY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. EVER INCREASING COLD ANOMALIES SHOULD BE OFFSET BY MASSIVE LAKE SUPERIOR RESPONSE...HELPING KEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTH WITHIN THE DGZ...EASILY SUPPORTING 1+ INCH SNOW RATES IF THIS BAND MATERIALIZES. THIS BAND WILL LIKELY BREAK UP/DRIFT SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ONTARIO SURFACE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO PASSING SHORTWAVE. ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED TO COME TO AN ABRUPT END MONDAY EVENING WITH SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE AND RAPID ADVECTION OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN. ALL TOLD...ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES (LOCALLY HIGHER...OF COURSE) OF SNOW EXPECTED MONDAY/EARLY MONDAY EVENING IN THE SNOW BELTS. BEST SNOWS LOOK TO REMAIN WEST OF THE SOO...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE EASTERN EXTENT OF ANY MORNING DOMINATE BAND. LAKE MICHIGAN: WIDESPREAD LAKE SNOWS IN A SLIGHTLY MORE BACKED ENVIRONMENT (WNW) EXPECTED MONDAY. PER STREAMLINE WIND ANALYSIS...IT APPEARS LAKE SUPERIOR PRECONDITIONING WILL BE LARGELY LOST...LEAVING BEHIND A MUCH SHORTER LAKE MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE FETCH TO DO THE JOB. THAT...HOWEVER...SHOULD BE OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE GIVEN BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT AND DEEP MOISTURE. CAPE/SHEAR NOMOGRAM SUPPORTS DIFFUSE BANDING STRUCTURES AT WORSE...AND NEAR STEADY-STATE WIND DIRECTION MAY PREVENT LITTLE WAVERING OF THESE BANDING STRUCTURES. HALF INCH TO INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES SEEM EASILY ATTAINABLE... SUPPORTING ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW THROUGH THE DAY IN THE FAVORED LAKE BELTS. SOUTHWARD PIVOT OF LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING MONDAY EVENING LIKELY TO BRING A TRANSIENT BAND OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE... PERHAPS BRINGING A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWS ALONG WITH IT...AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION. MUCH LIKE EASTERN UPPER...PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT END TO ACCUMULATING LAKE SNOWS. CONDITIONS STILL PLENTY COLD ENOUGH TO ENTICE A FEW LAKE SNOW SHOWERS IN NW-W FLOW REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH VERY DRY AIR AND NON-EXISTENT SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION WILL KEEP INTENSITY LIMITED AND ACCUMULATIONS MINOR. WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN DEAMPLIFYING LARGER SCALE FLOW REGIME. MAIN IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH...AND WITH CONTINUING WARMING THERMAL PROFILES AND WEAK WIND FIELDS...ANY LAKE CONTRIBUTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE MINOR. && .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THOUGH IT WILL BE GENERALLY DIMINISHING AND MUCH LESS INTENSE THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THE BIGGER CHALLENGE AT THIS POINT IS WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SYSTEM SNOW IN THE SUN/MON TIME FRAME WITH A POTENTIAL CLIPPER PASSING NEAR JAMES BAY. JUST HOW MUCH OF A SOUTHERN PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE CAN MUSTER IS IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT...AS SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS IT WELL NORTH WITH NO PRECIP FOR US. WILL KEEP BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTION OF CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY FOR NOW...AND SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS WITH THE CLIPPER IN THE COMING RUNS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TVC AND MBL WILL BE AFFECTED THE MOST FOLLOWED BY PLN...WITH APN POSSIBLY GETTING GRAZED AT TIMES. CIGS/VSBYS WILL DROP DOWN TO LIFR IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS BUT BE PRIMARILY MVFR AND IFR. APN MAY EVEN STAY MAINLY VFR. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. LIQUID/SNOW RATIOS WILL BE AROUND 22 TO 1. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 400 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ008-015>017-019>022-025>028-031>033. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LHZ345>349. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN SHORT TERM...MSB LONG TERM...MAYHEW AVIATION...SULLIVAN MARINE...SULLIVAN  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KBTV 141754 AFDBTV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1254 PM EST THU JAN 14 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN ADDITION TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OCCURRING OFF LAKE ONTARIO TODAY. MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES, BUT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN TURN BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 1253 PM EST THURSDAY...IN GENERAL FORECAST FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH JUST A FEW MORE ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPS AND POPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. LOCALLY RUN 4KM WRF CONTINUES TO OUTPERFORM ALL GLOBAL AND NATIONAL MODELS IN REGARDS TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO, AS WELL AS SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER ASSOCIATED WITH A SAGGING WEAK SURFACE FRONT. IDEA WILL BE THAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THAT LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT DROPS INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT. CURRENTLY WE'RE SEEING SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY IN MASSENA AND NORTHWARD INTO MONTREAL, AND EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH INTO THE AREA, THOUGH WITH THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CLOUD DEPTHS DON'T THINK WE'LL SEE MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION. FOR TONIGHT WE'LL SEE LAKE EFFECT BAND PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWFALL MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE SHIFTING A LITTLE NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AGAIN ON FRIDAY. WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST FRIDAY MORNING AND WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTLES IN. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE BROAD VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY TO SEE SOME 500MB RIDGING AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 417 AM EST THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE CAROLINA COAST NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY PASSING SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N 70W)...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS MODEL. THIS MEANS THAT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THIS DEEPENING OCEAN STORM. A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO FILL AND WEAKEN BY SATURDAY AS IT MOVES INTO QUEBEC. EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL SLOWER THAN THE GFS MODEL IN BRINGING IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM. EXPECTING ANY MIXED PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY TO CHANGE BACK TO SNOW LATE IN THE DAY AS COLDER AIR ALOFT RETURNS TO THE REGION...AS OCEAN STORM MOVES OUT TO SEA. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 417 AM EST THURSDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS UPPER LOW WILL BRING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECTING FAIR AND DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...A MIX OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 8 HOURS WITH PERIODS OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS AFFECTING EVERY TAF SITE. CONDITIONS WILL PRIMARILY BE VFR FROM KPBG EASTWARD WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON POSSIBLY DROPPING CONDITIONS BREIFLY TO MVFR. TO THE WEST THOUGH AT KMSS/KSLK MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL WITH MORE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS LOWERING VSBY TO IFR AT TIMES. AFTER 00-04Z A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH FROM THE INTL BORDER WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE/SNOWS MOVING SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE DISSIPATING. ALL CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... 18Z FRI - 12Z SAT...MAINLY VFR WITH CIGS TRENDING TO MVFR. 12Z SAT - 12Z SUN...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW. 12Z SUN - 00Z WED...MIX OF VFR/MVFR. CHANCE SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KGM NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/KGM SHORT TERM...WGH LONG TERM...WGH AVIATION...LAHIFF  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KARX 141130 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 530 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016 AT 3 AM...AN ARCTIC FRONT FROM LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THIS FRONT WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MEANWHILE A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM MINERAL POINT WISCONSIN TO THE TWIN CITIES. TEMPERATURES WEST OF THIS FRONT WERE IN THE LOWER AND MID 20S. THE 14.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY. NORTH OF THIS FRONT... THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SATURATION FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FALL. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY AND AS TEMPERATURES WARM ALOFT...IT WILL CHANGE INTO LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS LIMITED COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT...SO NOT EXPECTING A HUGE DROP IN TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT THAT...ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING FROM ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE PLACE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 351 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016 ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH MICHIGAN. DEFORMATION SNOW WILL MAINLY AFFECT WESTERN WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE UP TO A HALF INCH. FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE GEM HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE -26 TO 30C RANGE BY SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND -25C. THE GRIDDED HOURLY DATA HINTS THAT LA CROSSE MAY NOT CLIMB ABOVE ZERO ON SUNDAY. IF THIS OCCURS...IT WILL BE THE FIRST TIME SINCE JANUARY 6 2014. WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE 35 TO 40 BELOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...A WIND CHILL WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. MEANWHILE THE REST OF AREA WILL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL ADVISORIES LOOK LIKELY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE ROCHESTER MINNESOTA HOURLY GFS GRIDDED TEMPERATURES SHOW THAT ONCE THE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW ZERO AT 16.09Z THEY DO RISE ABOVE ZERO AGAIN UNTIL 22.18Z. THIS 153 HOURS OF SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES. THIS SEEMS UNREALISTIC SINCE THERE IS NO REINFORCEMENT OF THIS COLD AIR COMING INTO THE REGION AND NO FRESHENING OF THE SNOW...SO THE ALBEDO WOULD BE GRADUALLY DECREASING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOLAR ANGLE. IF THIS DID OCCUR...IT WOULD RIVAL THE LONGEST SUB- ZERO TEMPERATURE STREAK OF 161 HOURS FROM JANUARY 29 TO FEBRUARY 4 1996. DURING THIS STREAK...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS -17.5F. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS RUNNING VERY COLD...THE 14.00Z ECWMF IS RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 10 TO 20F WARMER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS MUCH COLDER THAN ITS 13.12Z RUN WHERE THE TEMPERATURES WERE CLIMBING INTO THE 30S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS JUST GOES TO SHOW THAT THERE IS A LOT OF VARIABILITY IN THE TEMPERATURES STARTING WITH TUESDAY...SO JUST STAYED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 530 AM CST THU JAN 14 2016 VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH EARLY MID CLOUDS OF 8-12KFT DEPARTING LEAVING ONLY SOME PASSING CIRRUS INTO THE AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING SOME MVFR VISIBILITY AROUND KRST NORTH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT...AND THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AS WE GET MORE OF A GRADIENT FLOW NORTH OF THAT BOUNDARY LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING FOR LOW STRATUS TO OOZE ITS WAY BACK SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MN/WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWERING BACK TO IFR RANGE FOR BOTH SITES...LOWEST OF COURSE AT KRST GIVEN THEIR ELEVATION. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CLOUDS...THERE IS A RISK FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW GIVEN MARGINAL CLOUD DEPTH AND VERY WEAK LIFT THROUGH IT. STILL...IF WE DO REALIZE ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE...THERE WILL BE AN OBVIOUS IMPACT FOR AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BOYNE LONG TERM...BOYNE AVIATION...LAWRENCE  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDTX 112017 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 317 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016 .DISCUSSION... STILL EXPECTING SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...AS 12Z DTX SOUNDING CAME IN WITH AN 850 MB TEMP OF -21 C. AS OF 3 PM...EVEN WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED UNDER 20 DEGREES. WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 20S HOWEVER. WEAK UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...PHASING WITH AND BECOMING ABSORBED BY VERY STRONG UPPER WAVE/PV/HEIGHT FALLS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE EXCELLENT 6 HR 500 MB HEIGHT FALL CENTER PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z TUESDAY. WITH THE PHASING AND CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE GREAT LAKES...RAPID DEEPENING OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED AS IT TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z NAM IS ACTUALLY CLOSE TO 5 MB TOO WEAK WHEN COMPARED TO MAJORITY OF THE MODELS... RAP13/HRRR/GFS/REGIONAL GEM. HOWEVER...THE LATEST 12Z EURO IS IN LINE WITH THE NAM...INDICATING A LOW CLOSE TO 1000 MB AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THUMB REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING (12-14Z). THIS HAS SOME IMPLICATIONS WITH WIND FIELDS TOMORROW...EVEN SO...WITH AT LEAST 35 KNOTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SQUALLS AROUND...EXPECTING GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. 6 HR RISE/PRESSURE COUPLET WORKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES IS PRETTY GOOD...BUT NOT A GREAT COLD ADVECTION PUSH (ABOUT 4 C DROP IN THE 925-850 AVERAGE TEMP WHICH GOES FROM -10 C TO CLOSE TO -14 C BETWEEN 12-18Z TUESDAY) AS MODIFICATION OF AIRMASS COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN COMES INTO PLAY. THE ADDITION OF THE STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE LOW CREATING BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED SNOW SQUALLS COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WAS DECIDING FACTOR TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 7 PM TOMORROW. EXCELLENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT DOWN LOW WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AT 925 MB LEVEL INCREASING TO AROUND 2.25 G/KG IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SOLID 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS DURING THE MORNING RUSH HOUR COMMUTE. WITH THE LOW IN A DEEPENING PROCESS...THE THUMB REGION WILL HAVE THE LONGEST AND GREATEST SUSTAINED ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WILL PROBABLY PUSH TOWARD 3 INCHES TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION EXITS COMPLETELY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WESTERLY/COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL THEN SEND SNOW BANDS/SQUALLS EAST DURING THE DAY. THERE COULD BE A SHORT LIVED LULL WITH GOOD POST WAVE SUBSIDENCE DURING LATE MORNING HOURS...BUT WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS REACHING TOWARD 10000 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON...LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE SQUALLS APPEAR LIKELY...WITH BRIEF WHITE OUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING...THERE WILL LIKELY BE NARROW SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLOSE TO -20 C. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE A BIT NORTH OF DUE WEST...SO MID SECTION OF CWA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS. BACKING SOUTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHIFT BAND TO THE NORTH...BUT DRYING AND WARMING AT 850 MB WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE ACTIVITY BEFORE GOOD SURGE OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/FGEN TRANSLATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. CONTINUED WAA WILL GIVE HIGHS A BOOST TO THE VICINITY OF THE FREEZING MARK THURSDAY WHILE LIGHT SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST OVER THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA AS THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A CONSOLIDATING AREA OF VORTICITY AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AROUND THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PREDICTABILITY IS STILL RATHER POOR WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH RESULTS IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND EXPECTED SENSIBLE WEATHER. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS TO INCLUDE LIKELY POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONSENSUS DOES FAVOR WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SO P TYPE OF RAIN/SNOW IS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT TRAVEL OVER THE WEEKEND. A RETURN BACK TO FRIGID TEMPERATURES IS LIKELY BEGINNING SUNDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING WHILE MOVING THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT WILL EXIT INTO ONTARIO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A PATTERN OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND LEAVE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...SNOW SQUALLS...AND FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT GALES TO PEAK AROUND 40 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS DURING THIS TIME. THE PREVIOUS GALE WATCHES ARE UPGRADED TO WARNINGS FOR ALL MARINE AREAS EXCEPT FOR INNER SAGINAW BAY. THIS AREA IS SHOWN TO BE MOSTLY ICE COVERED IN SATELLITE DATA TODAY AND WILL BEHAVE MORE LIKE LAND AREAS FOR THIS EVENT. THE SAME COULD BE SAID FOR THE SMALLER MARINE ZONES OF LAKE ST CLAIR AND MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE BUT THE GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATER IN THOSE AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND MID DAY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO WIND AND WAVES WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 1245 PM EST MON JAN 11 2016 BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP BREAK UP THE REMAINING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND WILL MAINTAIN VFR CEILING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY DETERIORATE THROUGH MVFR TO BORDERLINE IFR/LIFR ALL AREAS BY MID EVENING AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM GAINS STRENGTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE PEAK OF THE SNOWFALL EVENT WILL BE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK DURING LATE EVENING THROUGH MID OVERNIGHT EXCEPT POSSIBLY A FEW HOURS LONGER AT MBS WHERE THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEARLY OVERHEAD. A GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION DURING TUESDAY MORNING. COLD AIR RUSHING BACK IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WESTERLY WIND GUSTING NEAR 30 KNOTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE NEWLY FALLEN SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED IFR RESTRICTION. FOR DTW... LOW LEVEL WIND BACKING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST HAS HELPED SCATTER OUT THE STRATOCU OVER THE DTW TERMINAL AREA WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CHICAGO AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO THE DTW AREA BY MID EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DROP TO BORDERLINE IFR/LIFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY DURING THE PEAK OF EVENT WITH ACCUMULATION AROUND 3 INCHES BY MID TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL BE RISING THROUGH THE 20S OVERNIGHT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A DRY/EFFICIENT SNOWFALL WITH THE SYSTEM. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * LOW FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON...HIGH TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * HIGH FOR PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. * MODERATE FOR CROSS WIND CONSIDERATION LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083. LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LHZ361>363- 462>464. GALE WARNING FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT FOR LHZ421-441>443. LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LCZ460. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ444. && $$ DISCUSSION...SF/DT MARINE.......BT AVIATION.....BT YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDTX 101945 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 245 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016 .DISCUSSION... STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL TO MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH TODAY IS TRACKING OFF INTO EASTERN CANADA EARLY THIS EVENING. ARCTIC AIRMASS PLUNGING ON THE BACKSIDE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS/GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH 12Z RAOB OUT OF INTERNATIONAL FALLS INDICATING -27 C AT 850 MB. AS USUAL WITH ARCTIC AIRMASS COMING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...DIFFICULT IN DETERMINING IF DRY ORIGIN OF THE AIRMASS/SHORTER WESTERLY FETCH OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE OVERRIDING FACTOR VS THE EXCELLENT LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE LOW TONIGHT...4000 FEET...BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE IN FAVORABLE DGZ ZONE. SATURATION INDICATING AT 850 MB TONIGHT WITH TEMPS OF -20 C....AND WILL CONTINUE TO ERR ON HIGHER SIDE OF POPS (VS MAV/MET GUIDANCE) AND FORECAST HIGH SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 1 INCH. FLOW BECOMING A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW WILL TEND TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO NORTHERN AREAS. WINDS STAYING UP AND AIRMASS MODIFICATION OFF LAKE MICHIGAN EXPECTED TO HOLD MINS IN THE LOWER TEENS. MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPING SNOW MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS INTENSE UPPER WAVE FROM THE ARCTIC CIRCLE DROPS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH GOOD LARGE SCALE LIFT/PV ADVECTION...AS ACTUAL SURFACE LOW/REFLECTION TRACKS THROUGH THE HEART OF THE STATE. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING SATURATION ALL THE WAY UP PAST 15 KFT...WITH GENEROUS QPF AMOUNTS EXCEEDING TENTH OF AN INCH AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE VERY STEEP WITH CAPES WITHIN THE DGZ EXCEEDING 50 J/KG AND CLOUD DEPTHS STILL 10 KFT. WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND WINDS INCREASING BETWEEN 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE SET UP FOR SNOW SQUALLS AND LOCALIZED WHITE OUT CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S WILL LIMIT THE MELTING OF SNOW AS SALT BEGINS TO LOOSE ITS EFFECTIVENESS AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS WITHIN THE SQUALLS. BETWEEN THE WIDESPREAD SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MORE LOCALIZED/INTENSE NATURE ON TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES APPEARS LIKELY WITH THE FAVORABLE SNOW RATIOS...AS 925 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES SNEAK UP TO AROUND 2 G/KG EARLY TUESDAY. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH ANY PERSIST NARROW BAND WHICH SETS UP DURING TUESDAY. DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE TIME-MEAN UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY/SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL BRING PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW CHANCES FROM THE MIDDLE TO THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER A CHILLY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE TEENS...HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY RISE SLIGHTLY AS THE LOWER HEIGHT ANOMALIES GET REORIENTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. && .MARINE... ONGOING GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL NOT ONLY RESULT IN A DECREASE IN WINDS SPEEDS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT WILL ALSO LESSON THE AMOUNT OF FREEZING SPRAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...THEN DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS LOWER MI MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY...THEN VEER NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WINDS IN ITS WAKE TUESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 1207 PM EST SUN JAN 10 2016 THE SURFACE LOW NOW OVER SE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS TOWARD SRN QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS HAVE BEEN QUITE COMMON THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIFT MIXING HEIGHTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SUSTAINING A GOOD DEAL OF GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE REGION THIS EVENING...THERE WILL A WEAKENING IN THE GRADIENT WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL DROP IN THE WINDS. THERE IS AN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS LOWER MI WHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN MVFR CIGS INTO THE EVENING. LIFTING INVERSION BASES MAY THEN SUPPORT RISING CEILINGS DURING THE NIGHT. FOR DTW...THE SWITCH IN THE WIND DIRECTION TOWARD 300 TO 310 DEGREES SHOULD HOLD AS THE PREDOMINATE WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HOWEVER ALLOW SOME OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST SIDE OF THE STATE. EXPECT ANY HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW SHOWER WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IF ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL. //DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. * MEDIUM IN WIND GUSTS OUT OF 300 TO 310 DEG EXCEEDING CROSS WIND THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ462>464. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ361>363-462>464. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-441>443. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ361>363. LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460. MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444. && $$ DISCUSSION...SF/DT MARINE.......SC AVIATION.....SC YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KAPX 100831 AFDAPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 331 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016 .NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 326 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016 IMPACT WEATHER: ACCUMULATING SNOW WITH BLOWING SNOW. SYSTEM SNOW ENDING THIS MORNING AND LAKE EFFECT CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. BECOMING MUCH COLDER. SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS: SFC COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED JUST EAST OF NRN MICHIGAN...WHILE THE DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS IN OHIO AND TRACKING TOWARD LAKE ONTARIO. THE PHASING OF A SHORTWAVE INTO THE LARGER UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS RESULTED IN A TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT/AXIS OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS VERIFIED BY ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY ACROSS NE LOWER. SNOWFALL RATES HAVE LIKELY BEEN IN EXCESS OF 1"/HR THERE...WHILE REFLECTIVITIES HAVE FALLEN OFF TO SOME DEGREE ACROSS NW LOWER...WHOM RESIDES IN THE DOWNWARD BRANCH OF THE AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION. THAT SAID...LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE GOTTEN COLD ENOUGH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN IN N/NNW FLOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW. THIS FLOW REGIME IS NOT TOO FAVORABLE FOR EMMET/CHEBOYGAN/CHARLEVOIX AREA...AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN CHIP/MACK...BUT SYSTEM SNOW IS GETTING THEM DECENTLY. ALL-IN-ALL THE STORM SEEMS TO BE PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED. FINALLY...IN COMBINATION WITH THE SNOW...WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN INCREASING...GUSTING 20+MPH IN MANY LOCALES...ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THE POTENTIALLY LOWER SNOWFALL TOTAL/LESSER SNOW IMPACT THERE IS OFFSET BY THE STRONGER WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT BLOWING SNOW. SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND WEATHER EVOLUTION: SFC LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NNE INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT....WHILE MUCH COLDER AIR GETS ADVECTED INTO NRN MICHIGAN VIA STRONG/GUSTY...CYCLONICALLY CONVERGING AND BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM NNW TO W/WNW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST OF WINDS WILL BE TODAY...WHILE THE SYSTEM SNOW IS PULLING OUT QUICKLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...AS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PLUMMET...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO THROW PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS MOST ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN WHILE WINDS ARE STRONG. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW/BLOWING SNOW AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THIS...DESPITE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING AND SNOWFALL INTENSITIES FALLING OFF AS INVERSION HEIGHTS PLUMMET TO 4-4.5 KFT. FOLKS OUTSIDE WILL NEED TO BE AWARE OF RAPIDLY DEGRADING CONDITIONS GOING IN AND OUT OF EACH BAND OF SNOW. TOTAL SNOWFALL FOR THE DAY 1-3 INCHES WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY...ULTIMATELY LANDING IN THE TEENS/LOW 20S THIS AFTERNOON. THINGS GET A TOUCH BETTER FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW GOING INTO TONIGHT. DEEPER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO...WORKS IT'S WAY DOWN INTO NRN MICHIGAN WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/COLDER AIR ALOFT...ALLOWS INVERSION HEIGHTS TO CLIMB TO NEAR 6KFT. WE STILL HAVE A LITTLE LAKE SUPERIOR TAP IN NW FLOW THIS EVENING WHILE THE MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE...BUT IT'S NOT UNTIL OVERNIGHT THAT CONDITIONS ARE BEST CONCERNING MOISTURE AND INVERSION HEIGHT. LOSS OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR TAP THROUGH OVERNIGHT THOUGH...THE ADVECTION OF DRIER NEAR SFC AIR AND STILL BACKING WINDS FANNING SNOWS OUT WILL NEGATE THINGS A BIT. CAN SEE ANOTHER 3-5 INCHES IN THE SNOWBELTS...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY LESS ACROSS NE LOWER...BUT DO EXPECT BAND OF LAKE EFFECT TO OCCASIONALLY REACH ALL THE WAY TO LAKE HURON. WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WARNING ALL AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH THE EXPECTATION OF DROPPING THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY ACROSS NE LOWER BY MID MORNING AS THE SYSTEM SNOW EXITS. LESS TIME IN THE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT BANDS THROUGH TODAY...PLUS THE FAIRLY WET SNOWS THAT OCCURRED WILL HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME BLOWING AROUND THERE AS WELL. WILL STILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHIP/MACK COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...IT'S REALLY JUST TYPICAL WINTER WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE AREA AROUND PARADISE LIKELY TO SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER THIS TIME. LOWS TONIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. && .SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 326 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016 HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: LAKE EFFECT REGIME THROUGH THE NEXT FEW PERIODS. FORECAST CHALLENGE: WIND FLOW PATTERNS CHANGING SO THAT THE LES IS NOT IN ONE SPOT THROUGH THE PERIODS. (1/11)MONDAY...WE QUICKLY GO FROM WNW FLOW TO W BY 18Z AND SOUTHWEST BY 00Z. THE MORNING WILL 850 MB TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE BETWEEN -15C AND -20C THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND THE 850-700 MB RH FIELD IN NW LOWER LOOKS LIKE IT DRIES OUT SOME THROUGH THE DAY. I HAVEN'T QUANTIFIED THE AMOUNT IT DRIES OUT, AS THE MODELS DIFFER WITH THE AMOUNT. THE HIRES ARW MODEL LOOKS TO SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF IDEA THAT THE MOISTURE GETS NO LOWER THAN 60% THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE THE GFS AND NAM GO TO LESS THAN 50% FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS. WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE IN THE MORNING (BEFORE 18Z), AND THE WIND SHIFT BEING THE LEAST AMOUNT, WILL EXPECT THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS WILL BE BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z. THEN THERE WILL BE SOME BAND CONVERGENCE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WINDS COME AROUND TO SW AND THEN BY 00Z, THE SW BANDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY WITH THE NEXT AREA OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. GFS IS, I THINK, A LITTLE FAST WITH THE SFC TROUGH SPEEDING OUT AHEAD, AND THE WIND TRANSITION BY 06Z BACK TO THE WEST. THINK THAT THERE COULD BE A PROLONGED SW MAYBE EVEN SOME SSW FLOW INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY, BUT THE BANDS FAN BACK SHORTLY AFTER 06Z AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SO OVERNIGHT (06Z TO 12Z) THE WINDS (1000-850 MB LAYER) GO BACK TO A NW OR NNW FLOW. (1/12)TUESDAY...MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE WINDS ARE NW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION, 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -16C AND -20C(-20C IS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR), AND MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER OF BETTER THAN 60%. THE WINDS REMAIN NORTHWEST FOR ALMOST 12+ HOURS, SO THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WOULD BE 850 MB TEMPERATURES, WHICH ON A FEW OF THE MODELS IS APPROACHING -25C. WITH THE CLOUD DEPTH BETTER THAN 10000FT AND AN INVERSION HEIGHT OF 8000 FT AT 00Z, OUR CLOUD TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIPE FOR SMALL SNOWFLAKE PRODUCTION. THAT WOULD CAUSE OUR SNOW AMOUNTS TO BE POSSIBLY MODERATE, RATHER THAN HEAVY(6+"). OF COURSE, THIS COULD BE WRONG, AND IF THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES THAT OCCUR ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER, BIGGER DENDRITES ARE POSSIBLE AND A HEAVIER SNOW. OF COURSE, THE SNOW WILL STILL COME DOWN PRETTY HARD IN THESE BANDS, AND WILL EXPECT THAT THE VISIBILITY COULD BE DOWN TO NEAR ZERO WITH THE SMALL FLAKE SIZE. WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT AGAIN TO THE WNW AND THEN WEST BY 12Z. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY THING THAT KEEPS US FROM GETTING INTO HEAVY SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE SNOW GETS FANNED OUT AGAIN. ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF BAND COLLISIONS AND CONVERGENCES THAT WOULD EASILY DROP SOME HEAVY SNOW OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 326 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016 EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THIS WILL SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD OF THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT THE 500 MB LONG WAVE TROUGH SITS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WITH THE SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EVERY DAY OR SO. THIS LEADS TO MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EXCEPT THAT SATURDAY MAY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AS SOME 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGING PUSHES THE JET A LITTLE NORTH AND ALLOWS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO C FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE SATURDAY, 1/9. SO WILL BE EXPECTING NUMEROUS TIMES OF LAKE EFFECT WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN -12C AND -20C WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK UP THROUGH LAKE ONTARIO TODAY AND INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW CURRENTLY HERE AND LASTING TO NEAR DAYBREAK...WITH SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCEEDING AN INCH PER HOUR. SNOW RATIOS RANGING FROM AROUND 15:1 ACROSS NW LOWER AND 10:1 NEAR APN. MUCH COLDER AIR IS ALSO BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION VIA INCREASING NW WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY...REACHING 25 TO 30 KTS THROUGHOUT TODAY. SOLID IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SNOWFALL DIMINISHES SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS AT TVC/MBL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES/INTENSITIES FALL OFF THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP VSBYS DOWN DUE TO BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW LOWER. HEADING INTO SUNDAY EVENING...SNOW BANDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD...IMPACTING PLN THE MOST WHILE WINDS STAY GUSTY WITH PERIODIC BLOWING SNOW. SNOW INTENSITIES THEN RAMP UP A BIT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE WINDS WEAKEN WITH TIME. && .MARINE... ISSUED AT 326 AM EST SUN JAN 10 2016 STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO LAKE ONTARIO TODAY THEN INTO QUEBEC TONIGHT...AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN THROUGH TODAY WITH OVERLAKE INSTABILITY QUITE LARGE. NW GALES WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS AROUND DAYBREAK...AND LAST AS LONG AS THE EARLY EVENING...BUT CONTINUING ACROSS THE PRESQUE ISLE AREA MOST OF TONIGHT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY MONDAY MORNING...WHILE CONTINUING TO BACK AROUND TO OUT OF THE SOUTH/SW MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS START TO GO VARIABLE MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW PRESSURE ARRIVING...THEN PICK UP IN SPEED TO POTENTIAL ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY OUT OF THE NW. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL BE WANDERING THE ENTIRE TIME...MOST INTENSE LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ016>036- 041-042. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ345. GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ346. GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LHZ347>349. LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR LSZ322. GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321. && $$ NEAR TERM...DICKSON SHORT TERM...JSL LONG TERM...JSL AVIATION...DICKSON MARINE...DICKSON  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KICT 090940 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 340 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 317 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A NUMBER OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. SATELLITE TRENDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAVE SHOWN BLOSSOMING WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED TROWAL. ISENTROPIC ASCENT COUPLED WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE TROWAL HAS RESULTED IN ADDITIONAL LIFT AND DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. FURTHER NORTH...AN ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS BEGUN TO SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. JMR && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 317 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE TIMING OF SNOW AND THE ARRIVAL OF TRANSIENT BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TODAY AND TONIGHT: AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXPECT LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES TO REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST FLURRIES THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AS THE CLOUD DEPTH INCREASES AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS THIS MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...LIGHT SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UP TO ONE INCH BEING ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE BETTER LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROWAL...ISENTROPIC ASCENT..AND TRANSIENT 850MB FRONTOGENESIS. SNOWFALL WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF WARMING TEMPERATURES AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO INCREASE ALLOWING NORTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH TODAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RIGHT NOW...NO PLANS FOR A WIND ADVISORY AS WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS REMAINING BREEZY AND AT TIMES GUSTY OVERNIGHT...EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING INTO THE -5 TO -10F DEGREE RANGE. SUNDAY: AFTER A BITTERLY COLD START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID 20S AND LOWER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH KANSAS RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME...ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. MONDAY: MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A NEAR AVERAGE START TO THE WORK WEEK IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES AS TURBULENT MIXING OF RELATIVELY WARM 950- 900MB TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWERS 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. JMR .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 317 AM CST SAT JAN 9 2016 TEMPERATURES DURING THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A BELOW TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A SECOND SHOT OF COLD AIR IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL DROP LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO LINGER FOR TOO LONG AS HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BRIEF STINT OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION FAIRLY QUICKLY. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH REGARDS TO THE RETURN OF PRECIPITATION AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP MENTIONS OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. JMR && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST FRI JAN 8 2016 MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS OK...EXPECT MVFR CIGS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST OK...EXPECT CIGS IN SE KS TO SLOWLY LOWER AS SATURATION OCCURS IN THE MID LAYERS. THIS SATURATION MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ACROSS SRN KS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS AND THE KCNU TAF SITE BETWEEN 08-11Z...WITH CIGS DROPPING TO IFR IN THE LIGHT SNOW. COULD ALSO SEE VSBYS DROP TO MVFR WITH THE SNOW...BUT THINK FLURRIES AND NO VSBY RESTRICTION WILL BE MORE LIKELY. CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON SAT TO MVFR AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA...WITH DRYING OCCURRING IN THE LOWEST LAYERS. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO AROUND 25 KTS. KETCHAM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 28 11 29 20 / 20 0 0 0 HUTCHINSON 26 9 29 19 / 10 0 0 0 NEWTON 26 8 28 19 / 10 0 0 0 ELDORADO 27 9 27 19 / 20 0 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 29 11 29 20 / 20 0 0 0 RUSSELL 23 8 32 19 / 10 0 0 0 GREAT BEND 25 9 32 20 / 10 0 0 0 SALINA 25 7 29 19 / 10 0 0 0 MCPHERSON 25 8 29 19 / 10 0 0 0 COFFEYVILLE 32 11 28 18 / 40 0 0 0 CHANUTE 30 10 27 17 / 40 0 0 0 IOLA 30 9 26 17 / 40 0 0 0 PARSONS-KPPF 31 11 27 18 / 40 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KRAH 090745 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 245 AM EST SAT JAN 09 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ALOFT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT ON SUNDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 240 AM SATURDAY... THROUGH THIS MORNING... WIDESPREAD FOG AND THICK STRATUS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST WITHIN THE WEDGE REGIME... FEATURING A DAMMING SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES NOSING SW INTO NC... CAPPED BY WEAK BUT STEADY MOIST UPGLIDE. BLOCKED BY THE MOUNTAINS TO THE WEST AND A FRONTAL ZONE WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND SE... THE WEDGE SHOULD STAY LOCKED IN WELL INTO THE MORNING GIVEN THE STAGNANT SURFACE AIR... PROFOUND CLOUD DEPTH... AND LACK OF ANY MECHANISM TO DISPERSE IT IN THE VERTICAL. THE HRRR AND HRRR-X ARE STILL SHOWING INCREASING FOG DENSITY THROUGH DAYBREAK... AND WHILE THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN GIVEN THE EXTENT OF STRATUS... WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FOG TRENDS... AND DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING. THE MOIST UPGLIDE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE STRONG OR DEEP ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... AND OTHER FORCING MECHANISMS ARE LACKING AS WELL GIVEN THE DEPARTURE TO OUR NE OF A BATCH OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY... SO POPS THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE LOW. TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE THROUGH THE UPPER 40S AND LOW-MID 50S THIS MORNING. MIDDAY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: THE ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM REACHES ITS PEAK IMPACT ON THE SOUTHEAST STATES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST AND NW... MOVING FROM THE LOWER MISS VALLEY NEAR MIDDAY THROUGH THE TN AND ERN OH VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THE CHANCE OF EVERYONE SEEING AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS (AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO... MORE ON THAT LATER) IS HIGH CONSIDERING THE PROJECTIONS OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PW (0.90-1.20")... IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL HOLD TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. THESE MECHANISMS INCLUDES THE MID LEVEL DPVA WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS WELL AS THE STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET... BOTH OF WHICH TAKE A PATH NW OF CENTRAL NC. BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE A STRONG INFLUX OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE... FOCUSED INTO CENTRAL AND ERN NC OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW NOW OVER SOUTH FLA AND EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD TODAY AND THROUGH CENTRAL NC TONIGHT... DRAWING ENOUGH ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR A PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL POPS... FOCUSING LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND DURATION OCCURRING ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN FORECAST AREA. AS THIS SURFACE LOW APPROACHES AND DRAWS THE COASTAL WEDGE FRONT WESTWARD INTO THE NC COASTAL PLAIN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT... WEAK INSTABILITY (PEAKING AT A MUCAPE OF ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG TONIGHT) ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 50 KTS COULD SUPPORT A FEW POCKETS OF STRONGER CONVECTION... MOST LIKELY (ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL RUNS) DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS. IT'S UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT ANY WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE ACHIEVED DURING THE TIME OF GREATEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR (0-3 KM SRH PREDICTED TO REACH 300-400 M2/S2 ON THE NAM AND ABOUT HALF THAT ON THE GFS)... WHICH WOULD INFLUENCE THE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS. SUCH A SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY BUT THE POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED. IF SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER OUR EAST CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 AS EXPECTED HOWEVER... WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL (A STRAIGHTENING HODOGRAPH)... THERE COULD BE A RISK OF BOWING SEGMENTS AND STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TONIGHT. WILL RESTRICT AN ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER TONIGHT FROM RALEIGH EAST AND SOUTH... ALONG AND EAST OF THE ANTICIPATED TRACK OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW. THE WARM/WEDGE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK EAST OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 IN THE TRIAD TO NEAR 60 IN OUR FAR SE (CLINTON TO GOLDSBORO). TEMPS SHOULD SLIP JUST A FEW DEGREES EARLY TONIGHT... TO THE MID 40S NW TO MID-UPPER 50S SE... WITH STEADY TEMPS OR A SLIGHT RISE OVERNIGHT. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 AM SATURDAY... CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST MODELS IS TO SHIFT THE FRONTAL ZONE AND ATTENDANT PRECIP EAST OUT OF THE COASTAL PLAIN SUN MORNING... WITH THE ONSET OF BRISK AND GUSTY SW WINDS... SHIFTING TO WESTERLY LATE IN THE DAY... AS THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT (TRAILING THE POTENT SURFACE LOW THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE VORTICITY/UPPER DIVERGENCE MAX UP THROUGH LAKE ERIE/LAKE ONTARIO) PUSHES EAST INTO THE AREA LATE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES START TO DROP SUNDAY MORNING BUT WILL INITIALLY BE OFFSET BY INCREASING SUNSHINE AND THE DELAY IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S EARLY IN THE DAY... WITH READINGS SLIPPING LATER IN THE DAY. WITH THE TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE LAKE ERIE LOW... SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15- 20 KTS APPEAR LIKELY... WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH... BOTH LIGHTENING UP LATE IN THE DAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SUN NIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND WINDS BECOMING WNW AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN. LOWS 25-33. -GIH && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 230 AM SATURDAY... THE WORK WEEK BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL KEEP CENTRAL NC DRY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AS HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. MODERATION OF THE TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS THICKNESS VALUES RISE ABOUT 15 METERS...THUS CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT A 5 DEGREE TEMPERATURE INCREASE FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. EXPECT MID 40S IN THE NW PIEDMONT TO NEAR 50 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST. THAT IS WHERE THE MODERATION ENDS HOWEVER AS A COLD FRONT COMES RUSHING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY MORNING...MID 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES. A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. ACCORDING TO GFS BUFFER SOUNDINGS...GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 25 KTS BASED ON MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. RIGHT NOW MODELS REMAIN DRY...BUT A BRIEF FLURRY OR TWO CANT BE RULED OUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ASIDE FROM VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOW 40S IN THE SOUTHERN TIER. LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S. AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CAROLINAS...RELAXING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ONCE AGAIN MODERATE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER IN THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT FORMS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ENDS UP SOMEWHERE OFF OF THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW OFF OF THE COAST ON FRIDAY BUT THE ECMWF DOUSES CENTRAL NC WITH PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIQUID AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. AGAIN A FLURRY CANT BE RULED OUT AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT BUT AS OF NOW THIS WOULD BE A RAIN EVENT. PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE AS THE PARENT LOW HASN'T BEGUN TO FORM YET. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY... ...WIDESPREAD FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SAT MORNING... WITH ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. A WEDGE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE IN FROM THE NE AT THE SURFACE... WHILE DEEP MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE AREA JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THIS WILL KEEP DEEP LOW IFR/LIFR CLOUDS OVER THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR FOG... SOME OF IT NEARING LIFR/VLIFR LATE TONIGHT. THE STAGNANT AIR MASS AND CLOUD DEPTH WILL KEEP THESE ADVERSE CONDITIONS LOCKED IN LONGER THAN USUAL SAT MORNING... AS IT MAY BE LATE MORNING OR THE NOON HOUR BEFORE WE ACHIEVE MVFR CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL NC AIRFIELDS. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH AND SW WILL THEN BRING INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS STARTING SAT AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT... WITH CONDITIONS AGAIN DETERIORATING TO IFR LATE SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR STRONG WINDS FROM THE SE AT 1500-3000 FT AGL PRECEDING THE FRONT SAT NIGHT... PARTICULARLY AS WE APPROACH 06Z. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z SAT NIGHT... POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THE STRONG WINDS FROM THE SE JUST OFF THE GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND VEER TO SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT ESPECIALLY AFFECTING RWI/FAY. CLEARING SKIES AND A TREND TO VFR ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH STRONG GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST ARE LIKELY POST-FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH WED... ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS MAY RETURN WITH A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUE NIGHT/WED. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD LONG TERM...ELLIS AVIATION...HARTFIELD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KRAH 090529 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1230 AM EST SAT JAN 09 2016 .SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ALOFT WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT ON SUNDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 940 PM FRIDAY... THE ENTIRE AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. EVEN THOUGH THE BEST FORCING HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH THE INVERSION HAS LEAD TO PERSISTENT DRIZZLE. IN ADDITION...AS ONE WOULD EXPECT WITHIN THE COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME... WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE ALSO OCCURRING. MOST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE FOG WILL BECOME DENSE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND IF IT DOES OCCUR...IT COULD PERSIST INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY. VISIBILITY TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY INDEED BE NEEDED. REGARDLESS...VISIBILITIES WILL NOT BE GREAT AND EXTRA CAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN. TEMPS WILL NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH GIVEN THE THICK CLOUD COVER AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 245 PM FRIDAY... THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET STREAM WILL APPROACH FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION BY LATE SATURDAY. OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM... THE CAD WILL LINGER SATURDAY WITH AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE MOVEMENT IN THE 40S. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL/CAD BOUNDARY TRIES TO ADVANCE INTO THE COASTAL AREA... AND POSSIBLY THE SE COASTAL PLAIN BY EVENING... AND THE NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LOW APPROACH FROM THE SW. HIGHS WILL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH AT ALL OVER THE CAD REGION OF THE PIEDMONT AND WILL NOT REACH HIGHS UNTIL EVENING (UPPER 40S TO MID 50S). FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN... THERE IS A CONDITIONAL (AND CURRENTLY MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS/POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADO) DURING THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS INCLUDES AREAS AS FAR INLAND AS LAURINBURG TO FAYETTEVILLE TO GOLDSBORO TO TARBORO. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER IS CONDITIONAL TO WHERE THE BOUNDARY CAN PENETRATE INLAND. IF RAIN BECOMES WIDESPREAD (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) SATURDAY AFTERNOON... THIS WOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MUCH MORE STABLE AND KEEP THE CAD FROM ERODING QUICKLY ENOUGH AND/OR HELP KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABLE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. IF THE COASTAL BOUNDARY CAN PENETRATE INTO OUR SE COASTAL PLAIN... THEN CONDITIONS WOULD BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE (LOWER 60S DEW POINTS) AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG WITH THE INCREASINGLY STRONG WIND SHEAR (50KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS). THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND/OR TRIPLE POINT LATER IN THE EVENING. THE MAIN FRONT WILL ARRIVE BETWEEN 06Z-12Z FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL CUT OFF THE SHOWERS/POTENTIAL STORMS IN THE SE THEN. LOWS WILL NOT FALL MUCH WITH READINGS LIKELY STILL NEAR 60 IN THE SE AROUND 12Z/SUNDAY... WITH 40S IN THE WEST. QPF OF 0.50 TO LOCALLY 1 INCH IS EXPECTED. THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE RIVER FORECAST CONCERNING FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL DURING THE EVENT IS NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR A WATCH AT THE PRESENT TIME. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY... LOOK FOR SUBSIDENCE AND CLEARING WEATHER ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF SATURDAY NIGHT'S DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODEL PROGS SHOWS A TRAILING DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL NC DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON SUNDAY. UNTIL FROPA...HIGHS SUNDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...55-65...WARMEST EAST. MODIFIED HIGH PRESSURE COMING IN FROM THE WEST WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FOR MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL (UPPER 20S FOR LOWS AND HIGHS UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50). BY LATE TUESDAY...A POLAR FRONT WILL DROP SE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND IS PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL NC A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ASSOC WITH THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO DRY UP AFTER IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS...SO AT BEST...PERHAPS A FLURRY OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES NEAR THE VA BORDER...BUT ATTM NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE PRECIP. DRY COLDER WEATHER WED AND THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. HIGHS ON WED IN THE MID 30S...AND MID 40S ON THU. LOWS IN THE 20S BOTH DAYS. BOTH GFS AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF SUGGEST A FAST-MOVING SRN STREAM S/W WILL APPROACH AND/OR AFFECT CENTRAL NC ON FRIDAY WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. BY THIS TIME...THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MODERATE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ALL-LIQUID EVENT...HOWEVER GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW SNOW FLAKES AT THE ONSET GIVEN EVAP COOLING...BUT QUICKLY TURNING TO ALL-RAIN GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF STORM THAT WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE SUBSTANTIAL BL WARMING. AT THIS POINT...WAY TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO GET OVERLY EXCITED...ESP GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE MODELS HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME WITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY LATELY...AND DETAILS WILL INEVITABLY CHANGE! && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1230 AM SATURDAY... ...WIDESPREAD FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SAT MORNING... WITH ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. A WEDGE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE IN FROM THE NE AT THE SURFACE... WHILE DEEP MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE AREA JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THIS WILL KEEP DEEP LOW IFR/LIFR CLOUDS OVER THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD IFR FOG... SOME OF IT NEARING LIFR/VLIFR LATE TONIGHT. THE STAGNANT AIR MASS AND CLOUD DEPTH WILL KEEP THESE ADVERSE CONDITIONS LOCKED IN LONGER THAN USUAL SAT MORNING... AS IT MAY BE LATE MORNING OR THE NOON HOUR BEFORE WE ACHIEVE MVFR CONDITIONS AT CENTRAL NC AIRFIELDS. AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH AND SW WILL THEN BRING INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS STARTING SAT AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT... WITH CONDITIONS AGAIN DETERIORATING TO IFR LATE SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AVIATION INTERESTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR STRONG WINDS FROM THE SE AT 1500-3000 FT AGL PRECEDING THE FRONT SAT NIGHT... PARTICULARLY AS WE APPROACH 06Z. LOOKING BEYOND 06Z SAT NIGHT... POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THE STRONG WINDS FROM THE SE JUST OFF THE GROUND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND VEER TO SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT ESPECIALLY AFFECTING RWI/FAY. CLEARING SKIES AND A TREND TO VFR ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH STRONG GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST ARE LIKELY POST-FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH WED... ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS MAY RETURN WITH A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUE NIGHT/WED. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD NEAR TERM...KRD SHORT TERM...BADGETT LONG TERM...RAH AVIATION...HARTFIELD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KOTX 071838 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1038 AM PST THU JAN 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Light snow showers will linger through Saturday for portions of the Inland Northwest. A seasonably cold and occasionally unsettled weather pattern with no major storm systems is expected from Sunday through early next week. The next storm could affect the region by next Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Morning update: The main focus for today will be fog stretching across the Columbia Basin and mix of rain and snow showers across Idaho and far eastern reaches of Washington. Fog: Dense fog was present across many locations this morning but is beginning to lift across the Palouse and Columbia Basin. As of 10AM...the lower visibilities were on the Waterville Plateau and Wenatchee Area but even these have improved slightly over the last 30 minutes. Fog will continue to slowly lift into a low stratus deck with motorists generally encountering poor visibilities when climbing out of the lowest elevations and into higher terrain. As such, the dense fog advisory has been allowed to expire and will continue to handle areas dealing with dense fog with the short- term forecast product. Showers: Morning satellite shows a strong circulation or vort max slowly tracking from NE WA into N Idaho. The convective shower activity stretching from Spokane-Lookout Pass and points northward is largely tied to this feature. 12z balloon data also indicated some fairly steep lapse rates between 850-650 mb which will allow showers to quickly form. This instability is located between -3 and -15C suggesting cloud depths will extend into the favored ice growth zone and we have gotten some reports of large snowflakes near Sandpoint with lowlands picking up a quick 1/2" while 1-2 inches will be possible locally in the mountains. Further south near Spokane and into the Palouse and L-C Valley, the remains of the warm air will bring a mix of rain/snow and any locations which are sitting below freezing will stand the potential for brief freezing rain. Southeastern WA and the lower Idaho Panhandle is also under an area of midlevel convergence where light northerly flow on the backside of the vort max is meeting up with the next, decaying band of moisture from the south and we have received reports from Lewiston of a light rain/snow mix. As the vort max ejects east, all models agree the air mass will cool in the midlevels and most precipitation late this afternoon and into tonight will fall in the form of light snow showers...at least ending the threat for freezing rain region- wide. /sb && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: Main aviation concern will be fog and low clouds impacting most terminals as moist boundary layer resides with little to no wind. Fog to slowly lift into stratus deck this afternoon and gradually return to the surface as fog overnight with timing carrying low confidence. Light showers of rain/snow bcmg all snow after 00z will impact terminals in Idaho and far eastern reaches of Washington. Brief -fzra possible KGEG and KPUW through 20z with temps persisting 30-32F then a combination of temps near 33F or change to snow will eliminate the fzra threat. After 05z...there is a northeast push of drier air aloft with NE winds incr KSZT-KCOE. This should bring some improvement to KCOE and potentially KGEG-KSFF btwn 11-16z. /sb && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 34 25 32 22 29 18 / 20 20 30 20 10 0 Coeur d'Alene 35 25 32 23 30 18 / 20 30 30 20 10 0 Pullman 33 27 33 23 31 18 / 20 20 30 20 10 10 Lewiston 38 30 37 28 33 24 / 20 20 30 20 10 10 Colville 35 25 33 24 31 20 / 40 30 30 10 10 0 Sandpoint 34 25 30 22 28 17 / 50 40 40 20 10 10 Kellogg 34 25 30 22 29 17 / 40 30 50 40 10 10 Moses Lake 33 26 34 25 33 21 / 10 10 20 10 10 10 Wenatchee 35 29 34 27 32 24 / 10 10 10 10 10 10 Omak 34 27 31 24 31 19 / 10 20 20 10 10 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 PM PST Tuesday for East Slopes Northern Cascades-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands- Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KFSD 072055 AFDFSD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 255 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016 FOG AND SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO THE ADVENT OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...WHICH COULD MEAN MOST OF THE NIGHT NORTHWEST. THE REMAINING DENSE FOG SOUTHEAST SHOULD ABATE ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA...NOT TO MENTION THE INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING...WITH THE CHANGE OF LOW LEVEL FLOW TO NORTHEAST/NORTH BEHIND THE INVERTED TROUGH AND THE INCREASE IN CLOUD THICKNESS ABOVE. PRECIPITATION WAS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...HAVING SPREAD UP RAPIDLY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SLOWING THE SPREAD TO THE NORTHWEST FROM HERE ON...WHICH MAKES SENSE WITH THE UPPER LOW BECOMING ELONGATED AS THE ACTUAL CENTER PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS AN ASSORTMENT OF RAIN AND SNOW FAR SOUTHEAST...OTHERWISE SHOULD GENERALLY BE SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT MARGINALLY FAR SOUTHEAST BUT THINK THE COOLING WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER THERE WITH THE DECENT PRECIPITATION. PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW ARE EXPECTED SOUTHEAST TONIGHT WITH AN INCH AND A HALF TO TWO INCHES IN MOST OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AREA. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD TO THE NORTHWEST WITH ACCUMULATIONS THERE LESS THAN ONE INCH. THE SNOW WILL SLOWLY DECREASE TO THE EAST FRIDAY WITH A DECREASE IN INTENSITY EVEN EAST. ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF NORTHWEST IOWA...AGAIN RANGING DOWN TO LESS THAN AN INCH NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL DO LITTLE CHANGING ASIDE FROM SOME COOLING WITH PRECIPITATION...UNTIL MORE GENERAL COOLING STARTS SLOWLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PROCEEDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 30S SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY PICK UP TO THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE FRIDAY FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 255 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016 LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER ACROSS OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM THE NORTH LATE AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION LOOKS VERY LIGHT AT ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS. MORE SIGNIFICANT WILL BE FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN HUDSON BAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...COLDER AIR WILL BE DRIVEN INTO OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES BY MID MORNING ON SATURDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY. WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS THE AREA...WIND CHILLS WILL FALL INTO THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WITH NEW SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA AND SKIES CLEARING OUT ON SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 10 BELOW ZERO. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT...WITH WINDS CHILLS OF 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY STILL GENERALLY LOOKING TO BE THE COLDEST DAY DURING THIS COLD SPELL...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT JUST ABOVE ZERO EAST TO AROUND 10 ABOVE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST...WITH HIGHS UP INTO THE 20S THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD TO TEENS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON DROPPING A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT...AND WHILE THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAINED DRY FOR THAT PERIOD. COLDER WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY. MODELS STILL TRENDING TOWARD MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. EVEN SO...READINGS LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST THU JAN 7 2016 WIDESPREAD CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET THROUGH 08/18Z. VISIBILITIES BELOW 3SM IN FOG DZ AND FZDZ. A FEW AREAS OF VISIBILITIES 3-5SM THROUGH 08/03Z. 08/03Z-18Z SNOW WILL SLOWLY SPREAD FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WITH CONTINUED VISIBILITIES MOSTLY BELOW 3SM. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ066-067- 069>071. MN...NONE. IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ012>014- 020>022-031-032. NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013-014. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KVEF 181626 RRA AFDVEF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 926 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS...RICH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NOW DECAYING HURRICANE DOLORES WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FLASH FLOODING. STORM CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO...CLARK...AND MOHAVE COUNTIES TODAY. MOISTURE WILL PUSH FURTHER NORTH SUNDAY ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE AREA WITH CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE NEXT WEEK TOWARDS MORE TYPICAL SUMMER VALUES BUT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN FOR MANY AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .MESOSCALE FORECAST UPDATE... NEXT IMPULSE IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE MORONGO AND YUCCA VALLEYS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE, PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. AS THIS WAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST, IT WILL MOVE INTO A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. WHILE THERE IS SOME CAPPING THIS MORNING ACROSS CLARK, MOHAVE, AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES, EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES. THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY HAD SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES THIS MORNING, BUT THAT IS MIXING OUT SOME WITH THE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. AS THE WAVE APPROACHES THIS DESTABILIZING AREA AND THE PRESENCE OF LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET FOR JULY, EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO, SOUTHERN CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY. SPC MESO ANALYSIS OF MICROBURST POTENTIAL IS GRADUALLY EXPANDING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AND SHOULD CONTINUE AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES. ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE CAPE IN THE 0 TO -20 C LAYER IN THE VEF 12Z SOUNDING. THE SOUNDING ALSO INDICATES A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF JUST OVER 12K FEET, SUB-CLOUD LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 40-50 PERCENT, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES JUST OVER ONE INCH, AND A K-INDEX IN THE UPPER 20S. ALL THESE PARAMETERS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND VERY PRECIPITATION EFFICIENT RAINFALL TODAY. HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT RESIDES ACROSS EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE COUNTIES, MAKING THE POTENTIAL EVEN HIGHER. RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. ONE ITEM WORKING IN OUR FAVOR IS INDIVIDUAL STORM MOTION WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE CONCERN THEN BECOMES REDEVELOPMENT, TRAINING, BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ISSUED 255 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 ITS BEEN AN ACTIVE NIGHT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH PERSISTENT AND OCCASIONALLY QUITE STRONG STORMS IN FAR SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY AND NOW PRIMARILY IN MOHAVE COUNTY. STORMS EARLIER IN THE EVENING EXHIBITED IMPRESSIVE CORES AND PRODUCED PROLIFIC LIGHTNING AS THEY ENTERED INTO THE LAUGHLIN-BULLHEAD CITY AREA BEFORE MIGRATING EAST AND DROPPING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE KINGMAN AND GOLDEN VALLEY AREAS. SUSPECT THE TREND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WILL BE TOWARDS A SLOW WEAKENING WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PUSHING INTO EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS IN FAR NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY MAY PERSIST AS WELL BUT SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD. THERE MAY BE A FEW WEAK AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT FORM ACROSS SOUTHEAST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY EARLY IN THE MORNING AS WELL WHERE SOME CLOUDS ARE NOTED ON INFRARED IMAGERY BUT NOTHING OVERLY STRONG OR ORGANIZED IS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE WHEN THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING. BY DAYBREAK JUDGING BY SATELLITE TRENDS MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD START OFF DEVOID OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY WHICH COULD SEE SOME CLOUD DEBRIS LASTING INTO MID MORNING. WITH RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE DAY...AND INCREASING JET SUPPORT TO ENHANCE LIFT...ALL SIGNS POINT TO POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THIS NOTION...WITH SIGNIFICANT CAPE VALUES FORECASTED PARTICULARLY IN CLARK...EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO...AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FLASH FLOODING...BUT DEEP WESTERLY WIND PROFILE WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME PULSE SEVERE STORMS AND POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES AT TIMES. WITH DEWPOINTS POOLING IN THE 65-70F+ RANGE ACROSS RIVERSIDE AND IMPERIAL COUNTIES IN FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND THIS MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...IVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD TO INCLUDE THE MORONGO BASIN AND WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT. LONG STORY SHORT...EXPECT POCKETS OF STRONG STORMS IN THE REGION TODAY AND FLASH FLOODING IS A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. NOT ALL AREAS WILL RECEIVE RAIN...BUT I AM CONFIDENT SOME AREAS WILL SEE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL DEPEND ON HOW THINGS UNFOLD THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. MUGGY AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND WATCH EXTENSIONS & EXPANSIONS WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 255 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THE REMAINS OF DOLORES AND ITS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. BY TUESDAY WE MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY BUT OFTEN TIMES MODELS SCOUR OUT OUR MOISTURE TOO QUICKLY...SO THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. IN FACT...THE GFS MAINTAINS ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND AM TEMPTED TO BELIEVE THIS GIVEN THE SEASONS TREND OF MOISTURE RELUCTANT TO SCOUR OUT OF THE REGION AFTER A MOISTURE PUSH. DIDNT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED RANGE AS MY FOCUS WAS MORE ON THE SHORT TERM BUT POPS IN THE EXTENDED MAY NEED TO BE RAISED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER WEDNESDAY MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MONSOON HIGH BUILDS BACK IN...THE BREAK MAY BE BRIEF WITH HINTS OF MORE PACIFIC TROPICAL ACTIVITY AND A POSSIBLE RETURN OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE LATE MORNING AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AREA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS EXPECTED...HOWEVER AS USUAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADD A DEGREE OF VARIABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. WIND GUSTS NEAR STORMS MAY EXCEED 35KTS WITH CIGS BELOW 10K POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WELL AS POCKETS OF CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE. OTHERWISE BKN-OVC CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ABOVE 12K. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. ALL APPROACH CORRIDORS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM MID MORNING ONWARD. GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KDAG-KLAS-KSGU LINE BUT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. BKN-OVC CONDITIONS ABOVE 10K POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS NEAR STORMS AS WELL AS POCKETS OF CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WELL. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY IN MOHAVE...SAN BERNARDINO...AND CLARK COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && $$ MESOSCALE FORECAST UPDATE...PADDOCK DISCUSSION...OUTLER FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KVEF 181626 RRA AFDVEF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 926 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS...RICH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NOW DECAYING HURRICANE DOLORES WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TODAY INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FLASH FLOODING. STORM CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO...CLARK...AND MOHAVE COUNTIES TODAY. MOISTURE WILL PUSH FURTHER NORTH SUNDAY ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE AREA WITH CONTINUED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE NEXT WEEK TOWARDS MORE TYPICAL SUMMER VALUES BUT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL REMAIN FOR MANY AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .MESOSCALE FORECAST UPDATE... NEXT IMPULSE IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE MORONGO AND YUCCA VALLEYS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE, PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. AS THIS WAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST, IT WILL MOVE INTO A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE. WHILE THERE IS SOME CAPPING THIS MORNING ACROSS CLARK, MOHAVE, AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES, EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE AS DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES. THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY HAD SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES THIS MORNING, BUT THAT IS MIXING OUT SOME WITH THE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. AS THE WAVE APPROACHES THIS DESTABILIZING AREA AND THE PRESENCE OF LARGE-SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET FOR JULY, EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO, SOUTHERN CLARK AND MOHAVE COUNTIES THROUGH THE DAY. SPC MESO ANALYSIS OF MICROBURST POTENTIAL IS GRADUALLY EXPANDING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS AND SHOULD CONTINUE AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES. ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE CAPE IN THE 0 TO -20 C LAYER IN THE VEF 12Z SOUNDING. THE SOUNDING ALSO INDICATES A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF JUST OVER 12K FEET, SUB-CLOUD LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 40-50 PERCENT, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES JUST OVER ONE INCH, AND A K-INDEX IN THE UPPER 20S. ALL THESE PARAMETERS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND VERY PRECIPITATION EFFICIENT RAINFALL TODAY. HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT RESIDES ACROSS EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE COUNTIES, MAKING THE POTENTIAL EVEN HIGHER. RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. ONE ITEM WORKING IN OUR FAVOR IS INDIVIDUAL STORM MOTION WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE CONCERN THEN BECOMES REDEVELOPMENT, TRAINING, BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ISSUED 255 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 ITS BEEN AN ACTIVE NIGHT ACROSS OUR REGION WITH PERSISTENT AND OCCASIONALLY QUITE STRONG STORMS IN FAR SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY AND NOW PRIMARILY IN MOHAVE COUNTY. STORMS EARLIER IN THE EVENING EXHIBITED IMPRESSIVE CORES AND PRODUCED PROLIFIC LIGHTNING AS THEY ENTERED INTO THE LAUGHLIN-BULLHEAD CITY AREA BEFORE MIGRATING EAST AND DROPPING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE KINGMAN AND GOLDEN VALLEY AREAS. SUSPECT THE TREND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WILL BE TOWARDS A SLOW WEAKENING WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER PUSHING INTO EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS IN FAR NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY MAY PERSIST AS WELL BUT SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD. THERE MAY BE A FEW WEAK AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT FORM ACROSS SOUTHEAST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY EARLY IN THE MORNING AS WELL WHERE SOME CLOUDS ARE NOTED ON INFRARED IMAGERY BUT NOTHING OVERLY STRONG OR ORGANIZED IS EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE WHEN THINGS GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING. BY DAYBREAK JUDGING BY SATELLITE TRENDS MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD START OFF DEVOID OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY WHICH COULD SEE SOME CLOUD DEBRIS LASTING INTO MID MORNING. WITH RICH MOISTURE IN PLACE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE DAY...AND INCREASING JET SUPPORT TO ENHANCE LIFT...ALL SIGNS POINT TO POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT THIS NOTION...WITH SIGNIFICANT CAPE VALUES FORECASTED PARTICULARLY IN CLARK...EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO...AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FLASH FLOODING...BUT DEEP WESTERLY WIND PROFILE WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME PULSE SEVERE STORMS AND POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES AT TIMES. WITH DEWPOINTS POOLING IN THE 65-70F+ RANGE ACROSS RIVERSIDE AND IMPERIAL COUNTIES IN FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND THIS MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY...IVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WESTWARD TO INCLUDE THE MORONGO BASIN AND WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT. LONG STORY SHORT...EXPECT POCKETS OF STRONG STORMS IN THE REGION TODAY AND FLASH FLOODING IS A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. NOT ALL AREAS WILL RECEIVE RAIN...BUT I AM CONFIDENT SOME AREAS WILL SEE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. BEYOND THIS AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL DEPEND ON HOW THINGS UNFOLD THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. MUGGY AND OVERCAST CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND WATCH EXTENSIONS & EXPANSIONS WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 255 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015 MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT MONDAY AND IT IS POSSIBLE THE REMAINS OF DOLORES AND ITS MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. BY TUESDAY WE MAY BEGIN TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AS FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY BUT OFTEN TIMES MODELS SCOUR OUT OUR MOISTURE TOO QUICKLY...SO THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. IN FACT...THE GFS MAINTAINS ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND AM TEMPTED TO BELIEVE THIS GIVEN THE SEASONS TREND OF MOISTURE RELUCTANT TO SCOUR OUT OF THE REGION AFTER A MOISTURE PUSH. DIDNT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED RANGE AS MY FOCUS WAS MORE ON THE SHORT TERM BUT POPS IN THE EXTENDED MAY NEED TO BE RAISED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER WEDNESDAY MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT DEPENDING ON WHERE THE MONSOON HIGH BUILDS BACK IN...THE BREAK MAY BE BRIEF WITH HINTS OF MORE PACIFIC TROPICAL ACTIVITY AND A POSSIBLE RETURN OF A SOUTHERLY FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE LATE MORNING AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AREA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS EXPECTED...HOWEVER AS USUAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADD A DEGREE OF VARIABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. WIND GUSTS NEAR STORMS MAY EXCEED 35KTS WITH CIGS BELOW 10K POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS WELL AS POCKETS OF CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE. OTHERWISE BKN-OVC CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ABOVE 12K. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT. ALL APPROACH CORRIDORS WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM MID MORNING ONWARD. GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KDAG-KLAS-KSGU LINE BUT ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. BKN-OVC CONDITIONS ABOVE 10K POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS NEAR STORMS AS WELL AS POCKETS OF CONVECTIVE TURBULENCE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WELL. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY IN MOHAVE...SAN BERNARDINO...AND CLARK COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && $$ MESOSCALE FORECAST UPDATE...PADDOCK DISCUSSION...OUTLER FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KVEF 142039 AFDVEF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 140 PM PDT FRI AUG 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS...LESS STORM COVERAGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH VERY HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO BRING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO TYPICAL SEASONAL LEVELS AFTER MONDAY. && .DISCUSSION... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOHAVE, FAR SOUTHERN CLARK, AND LINCOLN COUNTIES, WITH SHOWERS STARTING TO POP ACROSS EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY. THESE WERE THE FAVORED AREAS FOR TODAY AND EXPECT THAT TO BE THE CASE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE IS MUCH LESS THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY, WHICH IS ALSO EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WE WILL SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP AND WHAT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DO WORKING WITH A VERY MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE. AS MENTIONED IN THE UPDATE THIS MORNING, THE STEERING FLOW IS FAVORABLE TO MOVE SOME OF THE SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY CONVECTION TOWARD THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. ALSO, THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD HAVE HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY, WITH A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 14KFT, K INDEX IN THE 30S, PW OF OVER AN INCH, AND SUB-CLOUD LAYER RH OF 40-50 PERCENT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WANE THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA, BUT BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE EVEN LESS THAN TODAY. BY SUNDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, ENDING ANY CHANCE FOR STORMS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND WE DRY OUT, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SUNDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH HEAT LINGERING INTO MONDAY. BASED ON JUST TEMPERATURES, THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING LOOKS GOOD. BUT ALSO, THE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S MAYBE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON WOULD CREATE A HEAT WE WOULD CERTAINLY FEEL, WHICH WE HAVE NOT HAD FOR A WHILE. IF THAT IS NOT ENOUGH, SATURDAY WILL BE WARMING NICELY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED, WHICH WILL CREATE A MULTI-DAY COMBINED HOT STREAK THAT MAY TAKE A TOLL ON THE BODY BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SO, THE WILL KEEP THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AS IS. AFTER MONDAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE, WITH A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL BRING A COOLING TREND, WITH READINGS GETTING BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY THURSDAY. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO LIKELY INCREASE WINDS A BIT, BTU NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BRING ERRATIC WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH 03Z SATURDAY. MAINLY FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOA 15KFT WITH PERIODS OF 10KFT CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...DIURNAL SURFACE WINDS ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY EXCEPT IN AREAS IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MAINLY EAST OF A KDAG TO KDRA TO KELY LINE. WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30KTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE OWENS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && $$ DISCUSSION...PADDOCK AVIATION.....BERC FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KVEF 141702 AFDVEF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 1002 AM PDT FRI AUG 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS MOIST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE. LESS STORM COVERAGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH VERY HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO BRING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO TYPICAL SEASONAL LEVELS AFTER MONDAY. && .UPDATE...OVERALL, THE FORECAST THIS MORNING LOOKS GOOD. ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR EDITS TO POP, WEATHER, AND SKY ACROSS TERRAIN AREAS OF FAR SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY AND LINCOLN COUNTY, BASED ON THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY. IF STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY, THE STEERING FLOW IS FAVORABLE TO MOVE SOME OF THAT TOWARD THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY, THE KVEF 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR CONVECTION, HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND NO CAPPING AS WE HEAT UP THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THAT MAY HELP INITIATE OR ORGANIZE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD, BUT IT IS RATHER WEAK. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD HAVE HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY, WITH A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 14KFT, K INDEX IN THE 30S, PW OF OVER AN INCH, AND SUB-CLOUD LAYER RH OF 40-50 PERCENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 306 AM PDT FRI AUG 14 2015 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY ENDED FOR THE NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH ONLY DEBRIS CLOUDINESS LEFT OVER. LIGHTNING AND ENHANCED CLOUD COVER WAS NOTED ON SATELLITE OVER YUMA COUNTY AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER THE PHOENIX AREA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST BUT IT IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER IT WILL MAKE IT AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE CWA. CLOUDS OVER VEGAS HAS KEPT THE TEMPERATURE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED SINCE I ARRIVED FOR WORK 8 HOURS AGO (83 AT 6 PM AND 82 CURRENTLY AT 2 AM). AN INTERESTING SIDE NOTE REGARDING YESTERDAY TEMPERATURES IN LAS VEGAS...THE LOW OF 77 DEGREES ACTUALLY OCCURRED ROUGHLY 3 1/2 HOURS AFTER THE 1:12 PM HIGH OF 103. THIS LARGE DROP IN TEMPS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN VALLEY. THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY HAS LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN MAINTAINS THE MONSOONAL FLOW INTO THE AREA AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A MOIST...UNSTABLE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOHAVE, EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO, CLARK AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IN THESE AREAS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NAM BUFR FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS CAPPING THIS MORNING OVERCOME BY STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH AN INCH AND A THIRD PWAT VALUES AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS LATER TODAY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WEAK EMBEDDED VORT MAXES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT CURRENT THINKING IS STORM COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA. BY SUNDAY, THE HIGH TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...END ANY CHANCE FOR STORMS. THE FORECAST CONCERN SHIFTS FROM POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING STORMS TODAY AND SATURDAY TO EXCESSIVE HEAT SUNDAY. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT "WATCH" CURRENTLY OUT FOR SUNDAY WILL BE UPGRADED TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT "WARNING". .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BRING LITTLE TO NO RELIEF FROM THE WEEKEND HOT SPELL WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONG CLOSED HIGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...NEAR YUMA. THE GFS TEMP GUIDANCE SHOWED NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY AND THE MONDAY MAX TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS. ALSO...THE 850-700MB MEAN TEMP IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 22 DEGREES C OVER LAS VEGAS MONDAY MORNING...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY. THIS CORRELATES TO A 110 DEGREE HIGH IN LAS VEGAS BASED ON LOCAL STUDIES. SO...ANY EXCESSIVELY HOT CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING AND DEPTH OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BUT THEY ALL INDICATE THE GENERAL PATTERN CHANGE WHICH WILL BRING A COOLING TREND AND GENERALLY DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD LOWER 3-5 DEGREES EACH DAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND BOTTOM OUT NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DIURNAL TYPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY EXCEPT FOR WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY FORM IN THE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD CIGS THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE AOA 15K FEET BUT COULD BECOME BKN AROUND 10K FEET AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...DIURNAL SURFACE WINDS ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND OUTFLOW. ALSO, STRONGER WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30KTS AGAIN IN THE OWENS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE BEST OVER MOHAVE, EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO, CLARK AND LINCOLN COUNTIES TODAY. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. && $$ UPDATE...PADDOCK PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SALMEN/ADAIR FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KTOP 281731 AFDTOP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Topeka KS 1131 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 408 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015 The upper low was located over northeast Texas this morning at 09Z. Warm advection was occurring to the northeast of the upper circulation across Missouri into northeast Kansas and southern Nebraska. Regional radar was showing an increase in precipitation across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri at 0915Z this morning. Latest short term models show warm nose inching northwestward some this morning over east central Kansas. Temperatures are expected to remain below freezing today at the surface. For areas from Lawrence to Burlington east may see between a tenth and two tenths of an inch of ice accumulation through the morning hours and at times will be mixed with sleet and even some snow, before changing over to all snow as cold air becomes deeper over east central Kansas. Further west a stripe of snow and sleet is expected from Emporia to Topeka at times through the morning as the warm nose aloft increases to around 1 deg Celsius for a few hours. Snowfall should continue to increase across northeast Kansas this morning into the early afternoon hours within the deformation zone and where frontogenesis increases. Further west across north central Kansas mainly from Washington to Abilene eastward snowfall amounts are expected to be less as the system will track a little further eastward and where precipitation will need to overcome the dry air, therefore have cancelled the winter storms warning and issued a winter weather advisory. Will maintain the winter storm warning for the rest of the area as snow and blowing snow as well as mixed precipitation will continue. Snowfall amounts overall have trimmed back with totals across the area from 1 to as much as 7 inches. The system moves to the northeast later today and precipitation should begin to taper off through during the afternoon hours. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 408 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015 By Tuesday morning, surface high pressure will be advancing into the region behind the exiting storm system, resulting in dry yet chilly conditions with the light northwesterly surface winds. These northwesterly winds combined with some low clouds will keep high temperatures on Tuesday only in the mid/upper 20s. Some models are showing a shortwave trough lifting northeastward from the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles into the area late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, with enough low-level moisture to produce some light precipitation. With temperatures below freezing, any light precipitation would be in the form of snow and would likely only accumulate to around one-half inch or less. However, it's worth noting that the NAM is drier with this shortwave and, thus, keeps the region dry, but GFS/ECMWF/GEM all are suggesting light precipitation so have low-end chance PoPs across the eastern two- thirds of the CWA. Once this shortwave lifts northeast of the area, models show a dry weather pattern in place through the remainder of the week and even through the weekend with the region remaining under the influence of surface high pressure. The primary impact this week will be the frigid temperatures that will likely be several degrees cooler than the seasonal normals. High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday may only reach into the mid/upper 20s, however there is some concern that models may have too much expected snow-cover which would trend toward cooler temperatures, so will need to closely monitor this potential. At this time, only hedged temperatures up a degree or two with this concern in mind. Overnight low temperatures though will likely plunge into the teens and even single digits (especially Wed. night and Thu. night). Even though winds should remain generally light, wind chill values may plummet into the 0 to 8 below-zero range both Wed. night and Thu. night. Conditions should trend a bit warmer though by this weekend with highs reaching into the 30s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 1125 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015 Expect MVFR conditions for TOP/MHK until 23Z. IFR conditions will prevail for FOE until about 23Z. -SN and PL expected over TOP/FOE with incoming precipitation shield just outside the aerodrome as of 18Z. Drier air in place aloft over MHK may reduce cloud depth below snow growth zone and result in -FZDZ instead of SN. CIGS and VSBY should improve aft 23Z as upper low moves into northern missouri. Skies will gradually begin to clear durng the overnight hours. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ011-012- 023-024-026-038>040-054>056-058-059. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ008>010-020>022-034>037. && $$ SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM...Hennecke AVIATION...Byrne  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KTOP 091142 AFDTOP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 642 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 IMPRESSIVE, NEARLY STATIONARY MCS ONGOING OVER SW IOWA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND MISSOURI ALONG WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MORE RECENTLY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN EAST CENTRAL IN GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THIS LATER SETUP THROUGH THE AND COULD EASILY SEE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY WITH PW VALUES CONTINUING TO RISE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING LATE TODAY AND PUSHING ON SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND EXPECT GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IS NOT HIGH SO UNSURE HOW MUCH THIS WILL PLAY INTO A FOCUS AND SHEAR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH IS NOT HIGH FOR A HIGH SEVERE STORM CONCERN. DOWNBURSTS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN CONCERN ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND TRAINING POSSIBLE. PRE-TROUGH AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BE QUITE WARM AND HUMID...AND BARRING PERSISTENT PRECIP EXPECT HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 FOR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 MORNING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY MORNING AS A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. COME MONDAY MORNING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS OR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. ALOFT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY. AFTER THE MORNING CONVECTION MOVES OUT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS MAIN FORCING REMAINS TO THE EAST AND FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO EASTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY AND LINGERS OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD. UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO DIURNAL CONVECTION AND MODELS HINT AT AN OCCASIONAL WEAK WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER FURTHER EAST MODELS SHOW NO WAVES OF CONSEQUENCE MOVING THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW, SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THEN GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015 ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. RECENT DEVELOPMENT A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN SH WILL COVER SO WENT WITH VCTS...THOUGH AM NOT CONFIDENT IN A PERSISTENT VC THROUGH THE MORNING. APPEARS A SOUTHWARD PUSH TO MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 06Z. COULD SEE SOME LOWER CLOUD/BR DEVELOP TOWARD 12Z SIMILAR TO LATEST OBS IN PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ040-056-058-059. && $$ SHORT TERM...65 LONG TERM...53 AVIATION...65  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KTAE 290807 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 407 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]... Water vapor satellite loops prominently display a mid-upper level low centered near the mouth of the Mississippi River, with a plume of deeper moisture situated along the eastern periphery of the circulation aloft. Within this moisture plume, fairly widespread convective activity was ongoing as of 07Z over the adjacent coastal waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Other than a few light showers over land, it was mostly dry. Fairly dense cirrus appeared to be streaming north from the Gulf thunderstorm activity per IR satellite, covering much of our forecast area. With the deep moisture in place across the area, and an unusually vigorous mid-upper level low for August just to our west, the ingredients are there for a day with relatively high coverage of rain across the area. Models show the strongest QG convergence centered right over our forecast area. A potentially complicating factor, though, is the amount of cloud cover that lingers into the day. Persistent cloud cover could hinder destabilization. While some rain showers would still be likely, the intensity and coverage of rain might be lower than it would be otherwise. Additionally, some high-resolution models show stratiform rain spreading north into the area from Gulf convection this morning. Given how far south in the Gulf the strongest convection is currently located, widespread rain - at least early in the morning - seems somewhat unlikely. For now we indicated likely PoPs (60-70%) over the southern half of the area in the morning, with rain showers the dominant weather type. In the afternoon, the likely PoPs were shifted into the northern part of the area, with thunderstorms becoming increasingly likely as some instability may be able to develop. Regardless of the specific convective evolution, there should be cloud cover or rain through much of the day which is expected to hold high temperatures generally in the mid 80s. This is slightly below normal. If Tallahassee's high stays in the 80s, it would mark the first back-to-back days with highs below 90 degrees since June 28th and 29th. .Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]... By this evening, the +PV anomaly over the north-central Gulf will have moved very little. The associated pressure trough will become a bit more broad as another wave slides through the center of the country, from the Great Lakes through the Southern Plains. This will eventually increase the mid/upper levels southwesterly flow and advect the northern Gulf anomaly through the Southeast on Sunday, and off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday. Through the same period, the secondary wave will stall over the Lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface a trough out ahead of the northern Gulf anomaly will disturb the broad ridge covering the eastern CONUS. We'll likely have a fair amount of convection lingering into the evening tonight. On Sunday, the western half of the Tri-State region will be under a slightly drier airmass directly below the +PV anomaly. To the east, the surface trough and upper forcing contribution will initiate widespread convection. A weak surface trough will remain along the western Atlantic coast on Monday, forced by a ribbon of trailing PV behind the main anomaly. This will be a focus for convective initiation, with storms spreading west into the eastern Tri-State region in the afternoon. On Monday, storms may have the potential to produce higher than normal rain rates as PWATs over 2" combine with warm cloud depths between 13-14kft coincide. This could provide an unfortunate amount of antecedent rain leading up to the approach of Erika. .Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]... There still remains an incredible amount of uncertainty with respect to the eventual track of Erika. The general idea is that Erika will weaken into a depression as it crosses over Cuba, and that's where models continue to diverge. From the 00z suite of guidance, once Erika emerges into the Gulf the ECMWF lifts a weak surface trough through the northeast Gulf, the GFS redevelops Erika into a tropical storm and moves it north toward the Tri- State region, while the HWRF completely dissipates the system. So at this time, the range of possibilities lies between total dissipation and a tropical storm at our doorstep sometime Tuesday or Wednesday. Keeping in mind that the "range of possibilities" has really been changing with every model run. The one thing that there remains some confidence about is that we will likely receive a couple days of heavy rainfall as Erika treks through the region. Highest average rainfall amounts between 5-7 inches still seem reasonable, and will most likely be across or east of the eastern half of the region. Stay tuned... && .Aviation... [Through 06Z Sunday] VFR conditions prevailed across the area at TAF issuance time, although satellite revealed dense high cloud cover across most of the area. Some periods of MVFR CIGS will be possible particularly at TLH, VLD, and ABY today, although in general VFR conditions are expected to dominate outside of thunderstorm activity. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are also expected across the area, mainly after 15Z and prior to 03Z. IFR visibilities would be possible in any thunderstorm. && .Marine... Relatively light winds and low seas will prevail through the weekend before increasing in advance of Erika early next week. Showers and thunderstorms are likely over the next several days. && .Fire Weather... Widespread rain and elevated relative humidity is expected today, with no red flag conditions expected in the near future. && .Hydrology... With around an inch of rain (on average) expected through the weekend, no impacts are expected. As mentioned earlier, Erika has the potential to bring 5 to 7 inches in some locations, provided it remains a somewhat progressive system. Most basins should be able to handle these amounts considering their low flows. However, the target area (at this time) for the highest rainfall amounts is across the southeast Big Bend of Florida where the Steinhatchee River remains above normal flows. Should these amounts fall in this region, there could be some significant impacts, even outside of river basins in rural or urbanized areas. All of this is highly dependent on the uncertain forecast track of Erika. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 86 72 92 75 91 / 70 30 40 20 60 Panama City 84 74 87 76 88 / 60 30 20 20 40 Dothan 85 70 91 72 92 / 60 40 30 20 40 Albany 85 71 89 72 91 / 70 50 40 20 40 Valdosta 86 72 90 73 89 / 70 40 50 30 60 Cross City 87 74 89 75 89 / 50 30 60 30 60 Apalachicola 85 75 90 78 89 / 70 30 30 30 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...HARRIGAN AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KTAE 010749 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 349 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]... An area of increased moisture associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Erika will move into the Big Bend area today. There will be a sharp PoP gradient, ranging from 10% in southeast Alabama and the western panhandle to 70% in the Big Bend. A few of the high-res models have the low strengthening as it moves onshore, however, the area of thunderstorms is very weak and disorganized this morning. Highs today will be in the upper 80s and low 90s. .Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]... From tonight into Wednesday, the majority of convective activity should remain focused in the southeastern portions of the area. This will place the highest PoPs in the Florida Big Bend and far south-central Georgia. Elsewhere, mostly dry and sunny weather is expected with just some isolated showers or storms possible during the afternoon or early evening hours on Wednesday. The reasoning is that there should not be substantial changes to the overall pattern from what is expected today, with a plume of higher precipitable water values (associated with the remnants of Erika) situated from Apalachee Bay into southeast Georgia. This is conveyed by both global models and certain convection-allowing models. With warm cloud depths occasionally exceeding 15,000 feet, the aforementioned high PWATs, and weak flow, locally heavy rainfall will be possible. We reduced high temperatures slightly on Wednesday in the areas of higher PoPs (upper 80s). Otherwise, lows should be in the mid 70s and highs in the lower 90s. Thursday is when the global models begin to diverge, as there are questions about how an upper level low currently near coastal Texas will evolve. The 00Z operational ECMWF takes this low east along the Gulf coast more quickly, providing more forcing for convection on Thursday. The 00Z operational GFS takes more time with shortwave ridging and mid-level NVA expected instead. This could lead to very different results, but for now we maintained a 30% PoP - slightly lower than the previous forecast but still indicative of isolated to scattered showers and storms. .Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]... Despite quite a few subtle differences in the mesoscale among the global models in the extended, there is generally good agreement that an upper level ridge will build from the southern Plains into the Ohio River valley. As the ridge builds to the north, a broad and weakly defined area of lower heights and several weak +PV anomalies should persist over the Southeast, which should be sufficient to maintain rain chances through the forecast period. Temperatures should be fairly close to normal. && .Aviation... [Through 06Z Wednesday] Greatest chance of thunderstorms will be at VLD and TLH today. Included tempo groups for MVFR visibilities this afternoon. VFR is expected at other terminals. && .Marine... Winds and seas should remain fairly subdued through the forecast period. The exception would be near thunderstorms; numerous storms will be possible over the next couple days (some strong), particularly over Apalachee Bay and to the east of Apalachicola. && .Fire Weather... Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days. && .Hydrology... In general there is fairly good model agreement that heavy rain, if it were to occur, would be focused over Apalachee Bay and into the eastern Florida Big Bend (Taylor, Lafayette, Dixie Counties). Average rain totals over the next couple days in those areas are expected to be 1 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. Training bands of heavy rain and thunderstorms could produce some localized flooding. Elsewhere, rain amounts over the next few days will mostly be less than an inch. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 90 75 92 75 93 / 50 20 40 30 40 Panama City 92 76 89 78 88 / 20 10 30 20 30 Dothan 92 73 92 74 93 / 10 10 20 10 30 Albany 92 74 92 74 92 / 10 10 30 20 30 Valdosta 90 73 89 74 91 / 60 30 50 30 40 Cross City 86 75 89 75 91 / 70 30 50 30 40 Apalachicola 90 75 89 78 91 / 40 20 30 20 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...WESTON SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...WESTON MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/FOURNIER  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KSTO 041145 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 345 AM PST MON JAN 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather this week with several systems moving through the area. Rain and mountain snow is likely from time to time, especially into Tuesday, and later Wednesday into Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Showers only making slow progress inland overnight as a weak trough ahead of the approaching Pacific low takes its time moving eastward into the ridge over the West. All the cloud cover is resulting in rather mild temperatures across the region with readings presently in the upper 30s to mid 40s in the Central Valley with 20s and 30s in the mountains. Initial shower band will continue to edge slowly inland this morning with rain expected to hold off in the Sacramento area until after the morning commute. Mostly light rain is expected in the valley through the midday hours before the band of precipitation moves into the northern Sierra in the afternoon where some light snow will be possible. More significant precipitation and stronger winds will develop over interior NorCal tonight into Tuesday as the trough presently west of 130W moves onshore. This system will have a tap to a deeper TPW plume of around an inch and stronger forcing for heavier precip. Snow levels briefly bump up to 5000-6000 feet tonight, but then lower Tuesday as the trough moves in. A half inch to an inch of rain may fall in the valley with up to 3 inches in the mountains. A winter storm warning has been posted with a foot of snow possible across the passes. Precipitation turns showery behind the front Tuesday afternoon with lowering snow levels with a period of clearing possible in the valley behind the front. Forecast soundings across the Sacramento Valley indicate a good amount of shear and MU CAPE in excess of 500 J/KG in the afternoon, so we'll be keeping an eye on the timing of the main frontal band for the possibility of some stronger thunderstorms. Precip forecast to taper a bit Tuesday night with short-wave ridging, then storm number two moves in Wednesday and number three on Thursday with the main upper low. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)... An upper ridge over the Eastern Pacific will move into the West Coast on Friday causing shower activity to taper off throughout the day. Although, the unsettled pattern may not entirely ward off all precipitation chances. By Saturday morning, the next wave is forecast to move into NorCal bringing wet weather, followed by a drier spell Sunday night. Then another dose of wetter weather comes Monday into early Tuesday. JClapp && .AVIATION... Trough spreading light rain northeastward today and increasing in intensity overnight. MVFR probable this afternoon with areas of IFR in mountain. Freezing level remains between 040-050 MSL. S winds 30-40 kts 050-100 MSL with relatively light surface winds. JClapp && .STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST Tuesday for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KSLC 181505 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 905 AM MDT SUN OCT 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS...AN APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY IN THE WEEK. COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A CLOSED LOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 50-80KT CYCLONIC JET OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. GOES/RAP/12Z SLC RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.33" NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...TO 0.75"-1.00" MOST VALLEYS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN UTAH. DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST VALLEYS...WITH MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WARM CLOUD DEPTH GREATER THAN 6FKT ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH...CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY DURING DESTABILIZATION MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT CONVECTION WILL BE DEEPER AND MORE VIGOROUS TODAY GIVEN APPROACHING DYNAMICS AND BETTER INSTABILITY SHOWN BY SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES. DEEP CONVECTION ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS NEVADA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR INCREASES AT OR ABOVE 30KTS TODAY SO ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE NEXT AND SOMEWHAT COLDER UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST STATES WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN BY THIS EVENING...THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL STRETCH THE SOUTH END OF THE TROUGH INTO ARIZONA/NORTHWEST MEXICO AND FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER ARIZONA ON TUESDAY. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED RAPIDLY THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NEVADA. MID-LEVEL COOLING AND THE RESULTANT INCREASED INSTABILITY ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE UPPER JET WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER WESTERN UTAH LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL... ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY CONVECTIVE PRECIP WILL EXTEND WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AS A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATE THROUGH THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. HAVE ISSUED A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN UTAH BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY CONCENTRATE ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH...WITH MORE ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN EVENTS FARTHER TO THE EAST IN THE LAKE POWELL AREA. WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING INTO WESTERN UTAH. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BECOME A BIT LESS ORGANIZED FOR MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS THE AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE BUT DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT BECOMES LESS WELL DEVELOPED. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STATE HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. THE SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA TUESDAY. MOIST LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE CLOSED LOW WITH DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE GENERATING PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL THROUGH EAST- CENTRAL UTAH MIDWEEK. ENHANCED PRECIP IS LIKELY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN INTO A LIFTING TROUGH THURSDAY. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AFTER THURSDAY MORNING. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS FURTHER...A TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE POLAR JET IS EXPECTED TO BE CROSSING INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE 00Z CANADIAN AND EC...LIFT THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN UTAH INTO SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING THURSDAY. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS INTO WYOMING...LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS...AND THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY. BLENDED THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE PERIOD BETWEEN 00Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY...BETWEEN THE 00Z EC AND THE 00Z CANADIAN. FOR THE WEDNESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...CONTINUED ELEVATED POPS ACROSS EASTERN UTAH....THEN TRANSITIONING TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AND FAIRLY MOIST...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NORTHERN TROUGH IS HANDLED MARKEDLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE MODELS. THIS SOLUTION FEATURES A STRONG...DIGGING TROUGH AS THE FEATURE PROGRESSES ACROSS IDAHO INTO UTAH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS ALSO THE COLDEST OF THE SOLUTIONS...WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -7C ALONG THE IDAHO/UTAH BORDER BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE 00Z EC DEVELOPS A WEAKER...MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH THAT CROSSES UTAH FRIDAY...WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES NEARING 0C ALONG THE IDAHO/UTAH BORDER BY SATURDAY 00Z. THE 00Z GFS FAVORS A MUCH FURTHER && .AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL TODAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 20-22Z. THESE WILL LIKELY CAUSE ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS AT THE TERMINAL WITH A CHANCE OF CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET AGL. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR UTZ016-019>021-518. WY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...ROGOWSKI/CONGER/KRUSE AVIATION...WILENSKY FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KSLC 171509 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 909 AM MDT SAT OCT 17 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS UTAH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO UTAH THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO REMAIN OVER UTAH THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. && .DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WAVE PIVOTING NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 50-80KT CYCLONIC JET OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. GOES/RAP/12Z SLC RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.33" NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...TO 0.90"- 1.25" SOUTHERN VALLEYS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN UTAH. 12Z VEF SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.23" SURPASSING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER RECORD TIED YESTERDAY OF 1.07" (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1948). DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS MORNING AS A SWATH OF SHOWERS CROSSED THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ALOFT. AREAS FAVORED IN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW LIKELY SEEING ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WARM CLOUD DEPTH GREATER THAN 6FKT ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH...CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY DURING DESTABILIZATION MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST PER RAP...WHICH INCREASES COVERAGE OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN UTAH/SOUTHWEST WYOMING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. && PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE REMNANT OF THE CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW EXISTS AS AN OPEN TROUGH ENTERING THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE AS THIS TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLDER PACIFIC TROUGH SETTLING IN ALONG THE WEST COAST TONIGHT. THIS SECOND TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN BEGINNING EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE...AND POSSIBLY TWO VORTICITY LOBES LIFTING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE DYNAMIC FEATURES WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS UTAH AND WILL GENERATE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST DYNAMIC LIFT WILL EXIST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. THIS DYNAMIC LIFT COMBINED WITH TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND FAIRLY EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT THAT EXISTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE AT A LULL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SECOND PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS SECOND FEATURE WILL LIKELY SHOW BETTER BAROCLINIC STRUCTURES AS IT CROSSES THE BASIN AND MOVES INTO WESTERN UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL WILL RETURN WITH THIS NEXT STORM...WITH GREATER AIR MASS INSTABILITY RESULTING FROM THE COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING COULD RETURN FOR LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ACCUMULATING SNOWS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATION WILL COME INTO PLAY AS THE NEAR 700MB TEMPS REACH OR BRIEFLY DIP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH. LINGERING INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT AND ON INTO TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. FOCUS OF THE ORGANIZED PRECIP WILL LIKELY SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN UTAH LATER ON TUESDAY. THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE LINING UP BEHIND A SOLUTION WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH SPLITS AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION DEVELOPING INTO A WELL- DEFINED CLOSED LOW OVER/NEAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL LIKELY FORM NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER AND SOUTH OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS OVER CENTRAL UTAH...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP AFTER THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. CONTINUED FALL SEASON MODEL CONSISTENCY ISSUES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH THE 00Z GLOBAL MODEL RUNS. A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER AREA. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXES WILL ROTATE AROUND THIS LOW THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. AS THE LAST OF THE STRONG VORTICITY MAXES ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...IT WILL TRANSITION TO A LIFTING TROUGH THURSDAY AND FINALLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE POLAR JET WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. THE 00Z EC/GFS/CANADIAN DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH AS IT EJECTS OUT...AND WHETHER IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE 00Z EC AND 00Z CANADIAN FEATURE A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SOLUTION...WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CROSSING UTAH THURSDAY...BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH. AS THIS TROUGH LIFTS OUT...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAKER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THURSDAY. AGAIN...MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE FAIRLY PRONOUNCED...WITH THE EC DEPICTING A STRONGER WAVE IMPACTING UTAH THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. THE EC SOLUTION...AGAIN...WOULD INDICATE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE THAN THE GFS SOLUTION. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MODEL TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY IN THIS COMPLEX PATTERN...DECIDED TO LEAN TOWARD A COMBINATION OF THE EC/CANADIAN SOLUTION. THIS WOULD BRING A HIGHER THREAT OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AFTER THURSDAY...HEDGED POPS MORE TOWARD CLIMO...AS THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE. IF THE 00Z EC SOLUTION REMAINS CONSISTENT...POPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD. && .AVIATION...EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING AT THE SLC TERMINAL. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TERMINAL AREA BETWEEN 20-22Z...WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE A BIT FURTHER AND KEEP THE TYPICAL NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT FROM OCCURRING TODAY. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO CAUSE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR UTZ013-019>021-518. WY...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/CONGER/KRUSE AVIATION...LOEFFELBEIN FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KSLC 162156 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 356 PM MDT FRI OCT 16 2015 .SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARDS UTAH THROUGH SATURDAY. A SECOND COOLER STORM SYSTEM WILL REACH THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AND IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z MONDAY)... WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A CLOSED LOW OPENING UP OVER CALIFORNIA AHEAD OF THE NEXT EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH. A WEAK WAVE IS LIFTING NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHERN UTAH. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 50-80KT WESTERLY JET WEST OF BAJA. GOES/GPS/RAP/12Z SLC RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.10"-0.15" NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...TO 0.50"-0.90" SOUTHERN VALLEYS. FIRST WAVE LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AT THIS TIME IS PROVIDING LEADING EDGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. DEWPOINTS ARE RISING THROUGH THE 40S...WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 60F NEAR LAS VEGAS. INTERESTING FACT...THIS MORNINGS VEGAS SOUNDING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.07" TIED THE HIGHEST MEASTURED VALUE IN THE MONTH OF OCTOBER DATING BACK TO 1948. THIS 4 STANDARD DEVIATION PRECIPITATBLE WATER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPILL INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH TOMORROW. BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOWERING LCL LEVELS OVERNIGHT AS WARM CLOUD THICKNESS INCREASES ABOVE 5KFT. THIS IS A RECIEPE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS OF ENHANCED OROGRAPHICS AND EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. THE LOWER LEVEL NATURE OF THIS PROCESS MAY MEAN RADAR ESTIMATES WILL BE TOO LOW DUE TO OVERSHOOTING THESE PROCESSES. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY DESPITE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER FOR THUNDER SATURDAY. SHIED AWAY FROM BIAS CORRECTED TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT...NOTING A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND. .MEDIUM TERM (00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY)... GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE AMPLIFIED IN NATURE REGARDING THE WEST COAST TROUGH EVOLUTION DURING THE MEDIUM TERM. LATEST RUNS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE PARENT SHORT WAVE GETTING KICKED NORTHEAST ACROSS UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT SOME SHEARING IS EXPECTED AS THIS OCCURS AS THE SECONDARY KICKER WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FORMING A NEAR CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER SOCAL BY TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COOL AND QUITE UNSETTLED PERIOD REMAINS. CONTINUE TO EXPECT WIDESPREAD MODEST PRECIP MONDAY AS THE PRIMARY VORT LOBE TRANSLATES NORTHEAST SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY TILTED...WITH FOCUS TIED TO THE AREAS OF GREATEST PVA ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF UTAH. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY OVER 10.5KFT SHOULD BE THE NORM AS ALL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS. AREAL COVERAGE TRENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE SHOULD BE ON THE DOWNTURN A BIT AS FOCUSED LIFT SHIFTS NORTH COINCIDENT WITH SHORT WAVE TRACK...BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE DEEP MOISTURE TAP SUPPORTS HIGH CHANCE SOUTHERN VALLEY POPS AND LIKELINESS IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR AT LEAST A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE SHARPENS AND CLOSES THE TROUGH OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER SOCAL...AND THE PREVIOUS WAVE EXITS NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...THE BULK OF LIFT WILL WANE ACROSS THE AREA AND A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP REMAINS LIKELY. PROXIMITY AND LOCATION OF THE CLOSED LOW WARRANTS A CLOSE WATCH MOVING FORWARD AS POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT IT COULD ONCE AGAIN TAP DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS BEGINNING TUESDAY...THIS BRINGING ANOTHER LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO THE SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO HIGH CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN MTNS/PRONE UPSLOPE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UT...BUT LOCATION OF THE PARENT CIRCULATION REMAINS KEY REGARDING POTENTIAL IMPACT. .LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY)... ON TUESDAY A SECONDARY CIRCULATION WILL MOVE IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH SITTING OVER THE WESTERN US DIGGING IT FARTHER INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE EXACT PLACEMENT IN THIS TROUGH IS STILL IN QUESTION BUT SOUTHERN UTAH WILL LIKELY BE IN THE PATH OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE THE TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN NORTHERN UTAH IS STILL IN QUESTION AS IT DEPENDS ON HOW FAR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH. && .AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03-04Z PER NORM AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED. CLOUD COVER WILL THICKEN AND LOWER DURING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THE POTENTIAL OF LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL INCREASE AFTER 22Z AS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR UTZ013-019>021-518. WY...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/MERRILL/LOEFFELBEIN AVIATION...MERRILL FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KSLC 140926 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 326 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. && .SHORT TERM (THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)... WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL UTAH. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE REMAINS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AHEAD OF A BUILDING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AMDAR 400-250MB WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW UTAH IS BETWEEN TWO JETS...A 80-135KT CYCLONIC JET OVER WESTERN CANADA...AND A 50-75KT ANTICYCLONIC JET OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. GOES/GPS/RAP/00Z SLC RAOB INDICATE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE RANGES BETWEEN 0.25"-0.40" NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...TO 1.00"- 1.40" MOST SOUTHERN VALLEYS. ACTIVE WEATHER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... WITH THE WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER CENTRAL UTAH THIS MORNING...RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND EAST. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS GIVEN UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND HRRR-3KM GUIDANCE. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY/ERRATIC AS THE MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY IN THIS MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...ITS QUITE SATURATED GIVEN RAINS DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. DEWPOINTS 50-60F ALONG THE ARIZONA BORDER AND RAP DEPICTION OF WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 5-6.5KFT THIS AFTERNOON PRESENTS SOME CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER STORM MOTIONS APPEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25KTS SO IT WOULD TAKE TRAINING STORMS FOR FLOODING ISSUES TO PRESENT THEMSELVES. HAVE OPTED FOR MODERATE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE SOUTHERN UTAH PARKS...AND ADDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH THAN THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE RIDGING NORMALLY SUPPRESSES CONVECTION...BUT LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE HAVE THE NOSE OF THE SOUTHERN JET POKING INTO UTAH THIS AFTERNOON AIDING IN LARGE SCALE ASCENSION. OTHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH WHERE MIXING WILL BE BETTER REALIZED. OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA WAVE LIFTS THROUGH TONIGHT CONTINUING THREAT OF CONVECTION. IN FACT...GLOBAL MODELS HINT THAT UPPER LEVEL JETS MAY COUPLE INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT. THE ARRIVAL OF A SHALLOW COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH TUESDAY COULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER IT DOESNT LOOK AS POTENT AS THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. .LONG TERM (AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY)... A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE TIGHTEST PART OF THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS FRONT SHOULD HELP PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...AS WELL AS DECREASE TEMPERATURES NICELY AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WITH SNOW LEVELS LIKELY TO DROP TO ABOUT 9000 FEET ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE POPS AND QPF VALUES FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE HIGHER PEAKS. THOUGH THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY STRONG ON WEDNESDAY...THE MID- LEVEL COLD POOL LARGELY REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA...SO THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SHOWERS DIE OFF RELATIVELY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THAT SAID...HAVE LEFT DECENT POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE EVENING FOR NOW...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY AND A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. THE FINAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH ON THURSDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF TRENDED A LITTLE STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE...SO INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALSO KEPT TEMPERATURES FAIRLY LOW ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR. AFTER THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...A ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE WEST FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A DRYING AND WARMING TREND. TEMPS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LOW TO MID LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...POTENTIALLY DRAWING MOISTURE UP INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTH ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...THOUGH AT THE MOMENT IT LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BETTER BET FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTHWARD. && .AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN GUSTY AT THE SLC TERMINAL TODAY...AND PERIODS OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH TODAY...WITH BRIEF CEILINGS BELOW 7000FT LIKELY UNDER THE STRONGER SHOWERS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY AFTER 18Z...AND COULD PRODUCE GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND CLOUD-TO- GROUND LIGHTNING. && .FIRE WEATHER...MOIST AND COOLER THROUGH MID WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AFFECT THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. EXPECT PERIODS OF WETTING RAIN AND LIGHTNING WITH A SNOW LEVEL ABOVE 11KFT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW LEVEL MAY DROP TO 9KFT ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY WITH THE COLDEST OF THE SYSTEMS. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING ON THE PERIPHERY OF BUILDING MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT A RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...ROGOWSKI LONG TERM/AVIATION...SCHOENING FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KSLC 051630 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 930 AM MST SAT DEC 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL GIVE WAY TO A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES GRAZING NORTHERN UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .DISCUSSION...SOME PESKY CLOUDS HOLDING IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL WASATCH MOUNTAINS AND IN THE HEBER VALLEY AREA THIS MORNING BUT THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE HERE SHORTLY FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THE REST OF THE DAY. THE CLOUD DEPTH IS VERY SHALLOW AND NOT ABLE TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP SO HAVE REMOVED THE MINIMAL THREAT OF SNOW ACROSS THE UINTAS THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS UPSTREAM ACROSS NEVADA IS CONTINUING TO DO A GOOD JOB IN PREVENTING HIGH CLOUDS FROM PROGRESSING VERY FAR EAST ACROSS NEVADA THIS MORNING. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUT PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE RIDGE AXIS THE SPILL OVER OF HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE MINIMAL. CONSEQUENTLY HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE ADVANCEMENT OF CLOUDS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS THE CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE NOT TOUCHED TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY BUT AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT OUR TEMPS MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO HIGH AS LATEST MET GUIDANCE FORECASTING COLDER MAX TEMPS THEN IN OUR FORECAST. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN LOWERING THEM BY A FEW DEGREES HAVE DECIDED TO LET THEM RIDE. && .AVIATION...WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE SLC TERMINAL TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL. WHILE WINDS MAY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...A LIGHT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION SHOULD HOLD UNTIL MIDDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO LIGHT NORTHWEST BETWEEN 19-21Z. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...STRUTHWOLF AVIATION...DEWEY FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KSHV 021807 AFDSHV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1207 PM CST MON NOV 2 2015 .AVIATION... FOR THE 02/18Z TAFS...IFR AND MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS OUR TAF LOCATIONS AT THIS NOON HOUR. THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL KEEP LIFTING SLOWLY AND SCATTER ESPECIALLY OVER OUR WRN SITES IN E TX AND AT SHV/TXK. FARTHER EAST...SOME -RA/BR IS STILL OBSERVED AT MLU BUT THIS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL HELP TO ERODE THE CLOUD THICKNESS AND SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR THROUGH SUNSET. EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF IFR/MVFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN DUE TO THE VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS STILL IN PLACE. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY LGT/VRBL WINDS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. MARGINAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PD. /19/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CST MON NOV 2 2015/ UPDATE... TWEAK SKY AND REMOVE RAIN/FOG POPS/WX FOR THE MOST PART. DISCUSSION... REGIONAL 88D RADAR MOSAICS STILL SHOWING SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER N CENTRAL LA...BUT MEASURABLE RAIN IS DONE FOR THIS EVENT. THERE ARE A FEW HOLES IN THE LOW CLOUD DECKS...MOST OF WHICH HAVE FILLED BACK IN OVER THE LAST HOUR. SO...NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE EXPECTATIONS WITH LOW TO MID 60S NOW AND OUR EVER POPULAR STANDARD TIME RULE OF ADD 10 AT 10 BEING UNDER CUT WITH THE CLOUDS STILL IN PLACE AND JUST A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND. OUR VISIBILITIES ARE MUCH IMPROVED WITH STILL SOME VERY LIGHT FOG AT A COUPLE OF SITES FROM EL DORADO TO RUSTON WITH IMPROVEMENTS THERE PERHAPS BY THE TOP OF THE HOUR. AREA WIDE...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO THIN WITH MOST LOCALES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 73 58 77 60 / 20 10 10 10 MLU 72 57 77 60 / 20 10 10 10 DEQ 75 52 76 56 / 10 10 10 10 TXK 73 56 76 59 / 10 10 10 10 ELD 72 54 76 58 / 20 10 10 10 TYR 74 58 77 60 / 10 10 10 10 GGG 74 57 77 59 / 10 10 10 10 LFK 75 58 78 59 / 20 10 10 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 19  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KRNK 240950 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 450 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN ABNORMALLY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL THEN STALL FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 420 AM EST WEDNESDAY... LARGE CLUSTER OF MODERATE SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SINCE MIDNIGHT. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. BIGGEST CHALLENGE TODAY AND TONIGHT IS WHERE THIS PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STALL AND WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE. NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS THE LOCAL WRF AND OTHER SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HOLD THE FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT HAD DIFFERING LOCATIONS OF THE HEAVIEST PREFRONTAL RAINFALL. USED A BLEND OF WPC AND LOCAL WRF RAINFALL FORECAST TO PLACE BEST PROBABILITY AND ORIENTATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN MOST LOCATIONS FOR TODAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT. SIMILAR TO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL START UNSEASONABLY MILD TODAY BUT WITH ONLY A SMALL RISE DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MAV AND LOCAL WRF GUIDANCE WERE A REASONABLE BASIS FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY... THE UPPER PATTERN WITH AN EASTERN RIDGE/WESTERN TROF WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BUT AN EVOLUTION TO A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BRING SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TO OUR FORECAST. THE PERIOD STARTS OFF ON A WET NOTE FRIDAY AS THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE LESSENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MAX PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THIS EXCEPTIONALLY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS TO GENERATE SOME THUNDERSTORMS/EMBEDDED THUNDER. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BEING FOUND FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BE DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH MOST OF THE REGION INTO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY LATE SATURDAY. HOWEVER THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND PUSHES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK INTO THE REGION AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR RECORD LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 70S EAST OF THE RIDGE AND UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 TO THE WEST. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN COLDER AIR STARTS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE BOUNDARY GETS PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 245 PM EST WEDNESDAY... UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS MEAN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE NATION...KEEPING MID ATLANTIC AND MID APPALACHIAN REGION IN MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A MORE GENERAL WIDESPREAD RAIN ENCOMPASSING MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN SEEMS IN THE OFFING FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS CLOSED UPPER LOW FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND AS LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COOL WEDGE IN ADVANCE OF THE MIDWESTERN UPPER LOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM SPOTTY UPSLOPING DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN UPSLOPING FLANKS OF THE APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY...TO MORE OF A WIDESPREAD SHOWERY NATURE LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT. PASSAGE OF SHEARING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER ON BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME WEAK COOL ADVECTION. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE FALL SEASON...PROXIMITY OF UPPER RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND MAINTENANCE OF SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVENT INTRUSION OF ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK...AND PERHAPS NOT UNTIL AFTER NEW YEARS DAY. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1220 AM EST THURSDAY... POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS BY 10-12 UTC...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A THUNDERSTORM INTO THE WEST DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS. NOT VERY CONFIDENT THUNDER WILL MAKE IT TOO FAR EAST...BUT DID INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT BLF WHERE CHANCES ARE THE HIGHEST. AHEAD OF THE THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL SEE MAINLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS...IN BRIEFLY LIGHT RAIN. EXPECT SOME BRIEF IFR CIGS POTENTIALLY AS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT ONLY LWB IS LIKELY TO STAY IFR REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE FCST AREA DURING THE DAY AND MAY RETREAT SOME BY EVENING...AND WITH SOME SHOWERS CONTINUING THIS MAY BE BETTER ATMOSPHERE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMPARED TO NOW. AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AHEAD OF FRONT...WINDS ABOVE A WEAK INVERSION ARE INCREASING INTO THE 50-60KT RANGE...AND FOR MANY LOCATIONS THAT WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT SFC WINDS...THIS RESULTS IN THE NEED FOR WIND SHEAR THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING WHEN THIS JET RELAXES A LITTLE BUT ALSO MAY MIX DOWN TO SURFACE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. BLF AND LYH ARE THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS SINCE SFC WINDS ARE UP JUST ENOUGH. OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW IN EXTENT TO WHICH IFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT TIMES DURING THE DAY TODAY AND INCREASE AGAIN BY EVENING....BUT THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF NON-IFR WINDOWS OF TIME AT MOST TAF SITES...AT LEAST UNTIL EARLY EVENING. .EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... CHRISTMAS DAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE SOMEWHAT IMPROVED CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES AS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR. BUT STILL A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON CHRISTMAS DAY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT OVERALL LESS LIKELY TO PERSIST IN THE IFR OR WORSE VALUES AS ATMOSPHERE WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER MIXED AND FREQUENCY OF SHOWERS MUCH LESS WITH NO KEY FEATURES TO HELP LIFT THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE. && .HYDROLOGY... AS OF 430 AM EST THURSDAY... AS ADVERTISED...VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION WELL INTO FRIDAY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH A SHORT WAVE TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY MODEST UPSLOPE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY IS VERY HIGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARM CLOUD DEPTH IS NEARLY 10KFT AND RAINFALL RATES GREATER THAN ONE INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY. BASED ON THESE EXPECTED RATES AND CONSIDERING THE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE HAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SO FAR THIS WEEK...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA FOR TODAY. AS FOR THE MAIN STEM RIVERS... A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE DAN RIVER AT SOUTH BOSTON AND THE ROANOKE RIVER AT RANDOLPH. AT THIS TIME THE DAN RIVER AT DANVILLE AND PACES WERE RISING BUT WERE EXPECTED TO CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 430 AM EST THURSDAY... WITH THE CONTINUING VERY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... MANY DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS AS WELL AS HIGH MIN TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE SET. FOR REFERENCE...HERE ARE RECORDS FOR OUR CLIMATE STATIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THURSDAY 12/24/2015 SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR KBLF 66 1964 -8 1983 14 1989 53 1964 KDAN 70 1990 9 1989 23 1989 53 1990 KLYH 70 1933 1 1983 26 1906 47 1979 KROA 72 1933 0 1989 26 1960 47 1979 KRNK 62 1996 -4 1989 19 1960 46 1956 FRIDAY 12/25/2015 SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR KBLF 64 1982 -13 1983 2 1983 55 1982 KDAN 76 1955 3 1983 28 1989 48 1988 KLYH 72 1982 -4 1983 13 1983 57 1964 KROA 68 1982 -4 1983 11 1983 54 1964 KRNK 68 1964 -8 1983 13 1983 41 1972 SATURDAY 12/26/2015 SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR KBLF 62 1987 -3 1983 16 1977 55 1982 KDAN 75 1982 2 1983 18 1983 57 1964 KLYH 72 1922 1 1983 22 1914 58 1964 KROA 70 1964 3 1980 23 1985 56 1982 KRNK 64 1982 -8 1985 9 1983 50 1982 SUNDAY 12/27/2015 SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR KBLF 69 2008 9 1977 20 2010 52 1982 KDAN 77 1982 6 1983 27 1985 54 1964 KLYH 71 1971 0 1914 21 1925 50 1940 KROA 69 1984 -3 1914 25 1935 52 1940 KRNK 67 2008 -6 1985 20 1985 52 1964 MONDAY 12/28/2015 SITE MAXT YEAR MINT YEAR LOMAX YEAR HIMIN YEAR KBLF 67 1984 4 1977 20 1995 53 1984 KDAN 72 1971 13 1966 28 1950 54 2008 KLYH 76 1984 6 1977 26 1950 51 1959 KROA 75 1984 4 1925 25 1925 51 1984 KRNK 66 1984 6 1977 28 1995 42 1959 && .EQUIPMENT... AS OF 325 PM EST WEDNESDAY... A COMMUNICATION OUTAGE HAS LIMITED THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE OBSERVATION FROM THE BLUEFIELD AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVATION SYSTEM. DATA FROM THIS SITE MAY BE UNAVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ009-015-016-032- 043-044-058-059. NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001>006-018>020. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...MBS/WERT AVIATION...RCS/SK HYDROLOGY...AMS CLIMATE...AMS EQUIPMENT...RCS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KRNK 042008 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 308 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY ERODE BY THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE A FRONT MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CROSS INTO THE PIEDMONT BY SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY... WE ARE SEEING SOME BREAK IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE...AND TEMPS HAVE ACCORDINGLY SPIKED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO EVEN AROUND 70. CLOUD COVER IS STILL ROBUST TO THE SOUTH...AND MOST NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS EVENING BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE OVER WEST-CENTRAL NC SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. THUS...RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE SHOULD SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...LEAVING LOW CLOUDS AND WHAT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD SCENARIO FOR DENSE FOG WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. SREF PROBABILITIES AREN'T VERY HIGH FOR FOG..BUT THE HRRR AND MOST STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS NC THAT CREEPS INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND VA PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 5OS..WITH LOWER 50S AND SOME UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY... EXPECT MOST OF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIIZZLE TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL COTNINEU TO RISE WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE AND A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP. CAD EROSION WILL CONTINUE VIA THINNING CLOUD DEPTH AND WARMING FROM BENEATH. GUIDANCE SEEMS SUPISIOUSLY QUICK IN BREAKING OUT...BUT GIVEN THE BREAKS WE'VE SEEN TODAY AND SHALLOW NATURE OF THE REMAINING MOISTURE...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH TO LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. A PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PRECEDE THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...AND BOTH MAY BE RELATIVELY SLOW TO CROSS THE AREA AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AWAITING A KICKER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE. THE NAM SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE THE MAIN SHOT AT ANY THUNDER...BUT GIVEN THE POOR DIURNAL TIMING...WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. SOME ANAFRONTAL RAIN...OWING THE THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER DIVERGENCE...MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DESPITE HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY... A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY WIND PUSH HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S...WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING UPPER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY MAY OCCUR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S DURING THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE EXTENDED APPEARS TO BE WHETHER OR NOT TRAILING ENERGY FROM THE PREVIOUS TROUGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE A SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NC COAST AND SEND PRECIP BACK TOWARD THE PIEDMONT. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS WAS ORIGINALLY THE PRIMARY KEEPER OF THIS SOLUTION...AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF HAS LATCHED ON WITH ITS OWN DAMMING SCENARIO FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE ISN'T MUCH SUPPORT FROM THE MANY GEFS MEMBERS AT THIS POINT...SO WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE AND LOWER TEMPS SLIGHTLY. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1230 PM EST WEDNESDAY... SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER TODAY HAVE LEAD TO A WIDE ARRAY OF AVIATION CONDITIONS...BUT CONTINUED MOIST FLOW ATOP A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY RAIN/DRIZZLE TO MANY LOCATION TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY THROUGH 06-08Z...AFTER WHICH SOME DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS THEN EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DEVELOPS AND THE LOW CLOUDS BEGIN THEIR SLOW EROSION. OUTLOOK... LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERS STORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...22 SHORT TERM...22 LONG TERM...22 AVIATION...22  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KRNK 041539 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1039 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY ERODE BY THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE A FRONT MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CROSS INTO THE PIEDMONT BY SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 648 AM EST WEDNESDAY... MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO TEMP AND POP GRIDS THIS MORNING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHILE A WEAKENING DISTURBANCE ALOFT DRIFTS EAST ACROSS NC TOP A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE RAP SHOWS SUFFICIENT ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALBEIT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE BELOW 800MB...TO MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT. DON'T EXPECT IT TO BE A COMPLETELY WET DAY THOUGH..AND SOME SUN MAY PEAK TROUGH AT TIMES WITH DRIER AIR JUST OFF TO THE NORTH. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SW VA NORTHWARD THROUGH SE WV...ALLEGHANYS AND PIEDMONT OF VA/NC...TO UPPER 50S- LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NC MTNS INTO PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS SOUTH OF ROANOKE TO MOUNT AIRY/WILKESBORO NC. -22 TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE LOW LVL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTH. WE MAY SEE LIGHT RAIN MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS THE WV/VA BORDER BEFORE THE FOCUS STARTS TO SHIFT BACK EAST THROUGH THU MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGHER POPS 40-50 EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS...TO CHANCE BLUE RIDGE AND LITTLE TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST OF I-81. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID TO UPPER 50S EAST. MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE FOG TONIGHT OVER THE BLUE RIDGE AND NEW RIVER VALLEY AS CLOUD DEPTH DECREASES FROM WEST TO EAST. -WP && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY... UPPER SHORT WAVE WITH A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL FINALLY KICK OUT TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE TO BRING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...THOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BOOST OUR TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S WHICH IS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR OUR REGION WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER RIDGE MAKES AN EXIT STAGE RIGHT AND SEVERAL VIGOROUS SHORT WAVES DIG A TROF THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL SPUR DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT BUT MOST OF THE INITIAL ENERGY SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING. AND WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT IT WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO MOVE THROUGH AS IT GRADUALLY CROSSES THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED AS INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE LACKING. WILL THEREFORE NOT INTRODUCE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE A SOLID FEED OF MOISTURE INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A SOAKING RAIN ON SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK GREAT ENOUGH TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT HYDRO THREAT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1245 PM EST TUESDAY... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH QUESTIONS IN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FEATURE BUILDS BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GFS QUITE DRY/COOL WITH THE HIGH ABOUT OVERHEAD AND LITTLE RETURN FLOW INTO THE WEDGE UNTIL MONDAY...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS FARTHER NORTH ALLOWING MORE COASTAL TROFFINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCLUDING PERHAPS SOME -RA BACK INTO THE COOL POOL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE ONSET OF THE DRY ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT INITIALLY BEFORE ANY DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SO WILL KEEP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DRIER WITH MORE CLOUDS/-RA RETURNING BY TUESDAY. COOLER 85H TEMPS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE FOR A RATHER CHILLY PERIOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 50S SUNDAY- MONDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING TO UPPER 50S/LOW 60S UNDER BETTER RETURN FLOW TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 645 AM EST WEDNESDAY... GOING TO SEE MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 1500-4500 FEET. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE NEAR DANVILLE EARLY BUT BEST THREAT OF THIS WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MODELS FAVOR BKN TO SCT CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE AT LWB/BLF AT TIMES THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL WILL KEEP A CIG THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NO FOG EXPECTED THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...CIGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR TO IFR. DRIER ABOVE THE LOWEST LVLS MAY CREATE A FOG ISSUE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AS DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE WEDGE WILL FINALLY ERODE ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A BREAK DOWN OF THE WEDGE FROM THE TOP TO THE BOTTOM AND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MAINLY VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...WP/22 SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...WP  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KRNK 040844 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 344 AM EST WED NOV 4 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY ERODE BY THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE A FRONT MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CROSS INTO THE PIEDMONT BY SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 248 AM EST WEDNESDAY... GETTING LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR FROM THE SRN BLUE RIDGE OF VA INTO NC SOUTHEAST TO THE TRIAD OF NC. ELEMENTS MOVING NW WITH SE FLOW AT 8H. A BLEND OF THE HIGH-RES/SYNOPTIC MODELS FAVORS A THREAT OF LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF A BCB-ROA-LYH LINE AS WE HEAD TOWARD MIDDAY...WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS THE SE UPSLOPE AREAS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS...THOUGH IN THE MTN EMPIRE OF FAR SW VA AND WEST OF BLF-LWB AND NORTH OF LEXINGTON...SOME SUNSHINE WILL WORK IN. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN TERMS OF HIGH TEMPS...THOUGH MAY SEE MORE CLOUDS EVEN FURTHER NORTH. STILL HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S FROM THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE OF SW VA NORTHWARD THROUGH SE WV...ALLEGHANYS AND PIEDMONT OF VA/NC...TO UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NC MTNS INTO PORTIONS OF THE NEW RIVER VALLEY AND FOOTHILLS SOUTH OF ROANOKE TO MOUNT AIRY/WILKESBORO NC. AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES...WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND FAR EASTERN CWA TO LITTLE TO NONE NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR. TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE LOW LVL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTH. WE MAY SEE LIGHT RAIN MAKE IT AS FAR WEST AS THE WV/VA BORDER BEFORE THE FOCUS STARTS TO SHIFT BACK EAST THROUGH THU MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGHER POPS 40-50 EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS...TO CHANCE BLUE RIDGE AND LITTLE TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST OF I-81. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO MID TO UPPER 50S EAST. MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE FOG TONIGHT OVER THE BLUE RIDGE AND NEW RIVER VALLEY AS CLOUD DEPTH DECREASES FROM WEST TO EAST. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY... UPPER SHORT WAVE WITH A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION WILL FINALLY KICK OUT TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE LONG WAVE UPPER RIDGE TO BRING GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...THOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BOOST OUR TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S WHICH IS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR OUR REGION WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER RIDGE MAKES AN EXIT STAGE RIGHT AND SEVERAL VIGOROUS SHORT WAVES DIG A TROF THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL SPUR DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS FRONT BUT MOST OF THE INITIAL ENERGY SHEARS OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL HELP DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL TOWARD FRIDAY EVENING. AND WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE FRONT IT WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO MOVE THROUGH AS IT GRADUALLY CROSSES THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED AS INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE LACKING. WILL THEREFORE NOT INTRODUCE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE A SOLID FEED OF MOISTURE INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A SOAKING RAIN ON SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK GREAT ENOUGH TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT HYDRO THREAT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 1245 PM EST TUESDAY... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW THE FRONT SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH QUESTIONS IN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FEATURE BUILDS BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST GFS QUITE DRY/COOL WITH THE HIGH ABOUT OVERHEAD AND LITTLE RETURN FLOW INTO THE WEDGE UNTIL MONDAY...WHILE OTHER SOLUTIONS FARTHER NORTH ALLOWING MORE COASTAL TROFFINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCLUDING PERHAPS SOME -RA BACK INTO THE COOL POOL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THINK THE ONSET OF THE DRY ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT INITIALLY BEFORE ANY DEEPER ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SO WILL KEEP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DRIER WITH MORE CLOUDS/-RA RETURNING BY TUESDAY. COOLER 85H TEMPS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE FOR A RATHER CHILLY PERIOD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY 50S SUNDAY- MONDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING TO UPPER 50S/LOW 60S UNDER BETTER RETURN FLOW TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1145 PM EST TUESDAY... GENERALLY POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 04/06Z TAF VALID PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SOME DRYING HAS BEEN TRYING TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST...LOW PRESSURE STALLED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST COMBINED WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP A FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACE WITH A MARITIME INVERSION NEAR 850MB AND SUBSEQUENTLY A MOIST LAYER BELOW. THIS WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. WHILE LYH/ROA HAVE SEEN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS...BELIEVE THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY AROUND 04/09Z...WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED AT BLF. WILL ALSO SEE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGES WHERE CLOUDS MEET THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS GENERALLY ENE-ESE THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT SPEEDS OF 3-6KTS TIL 14Z...THEN 4-8KTS AFT 14Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE WEDGE WILL FINALLY ERODE ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A BREAK DOWN OF THE WEDGE FROM THE TOP TO THE BOTTOM AND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. MAINLY VFR CONDITION ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...MBS LONG TERM...JH AVIATION...NF/RAB  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KRLX 121942 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 242 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT EXITS. REINFORCING UPPER TROUGH LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE LATE SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS AT THIS POINT IN TIME AS EVIDENT BY THE LOWERING DEWPOINTS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND THIS FRONT AS CRW STILL SITS AT THE 70F MARK AS OF 19Z. TEMPERATURES DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH READINGS DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S IN THE LOW CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO. NO SIGNIFICANT POPS LEFT FOR THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER...STILL KEEPING THE DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHALLOW CLOUD DEPTH SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT. MAY NEED TO UPGRADE THIS TO LOW END POPS. EXPECT THE WIND TO DECREASE A BIT...ESPECIALLY THE GUSTS...THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE STILL AT WORK...WILL BE FAR FROM A CALM OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ON THE STRONG SIDE...SO MIXING TOMORROW WILL BRING ADDITIONAL GUSTY CONDITIONS...BUT NOT WHAT THEY ARE WITH THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY ROLLING THROUGH. MOUNTAINS WILL STILL SEE 25-35KTS. CONSIDERABLY COOLER DAY EXPECTED FRIDAY...BUT SOME SUN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOWLANDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OSCILLATE IN AND OUT OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY WITH A REINFORCING UPPER TROUGH SLATED TO DROP CLOUDS BACK INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO HEADING INTO THE SHORT TERM. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UPSLOPE CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE ON FRIDAY...BRINGING AN END TO ANY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY MORNING. A DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH MORE UPSLOPE CLOUDS FORMING BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH IS VERY LIMITED AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR OVER TURNING...SO ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT. WITH WINDS CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE WHICH TENDS TO ALWAYS INCLUDE RADIATION. CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN WILL ERODE ON SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONTINUED TO RUN COLD FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS REMAINING COLD POOL STRATOCUMULUS THIN AND EVAPORATE IN THE NE...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW. WENT COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT GFS MOS EXTENDED GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CATCHING UP TO OUR THINKING FROM THE PAST 2 DAYS. THE WEATHER PATTERN SEEMS TO REPEAT ITSELF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO THE CURRENT PATTERN. YET...NOTHING REPEATS EXACTLY THE SAME. THE SURFACE LOW TRACK MAY BE A BIT FURTHER EAST...IN COMPARISON TO THE CURRENT LOW TRACK. THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION IS MUCH FASTER THEN THE GFS FOR DAY 7. A PROLONG SE FLOW SHOULD START GRADUALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN PICK UP IN STRENGTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY HAZARD FOR THOSE LATE PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INITIAL RENEGADE DEEPER MOISTURE AND THUS POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HAVE SOME 20 TO 40 POPS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...BUT TRY TO HOLD POPS DOWN IN SE DOWNSLOPE FOR A TIME INTO TUESDAY. WILL ALSO TRY TO DEPICT SOME SE WARMING CRW TO CKB TUESDAY...WHILE HOLDING BKW COOLER. HAVE HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE WIND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING AT THE ISSUANCE TIME. WINDS VEERING TO AROUND THE 260 DIRECTION...WITH GUSTS AREA WIDE IN THE 30-40KT RANGE. CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WIND GUSTS AND DIRECTIONS MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY EXPERIENCE IFR CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ007>011- 014>020-027>032-035>040-046-047. OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075- 076-084-085. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...26  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KRLX 121942 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 242 PM EST THU NOV 12 2015 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT EXITS. REINFORCING UPPER TROUGH LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE LATE SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT IN THE MOUNTAINS AT THIS POINT IN TIME AS EVIDENT BY THE LOWERING DEWPOINTS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE LAGGING BEHIND THIS FRONT AS CRW STILL SITS AT THE 70F MARK AS OF 19Z. TEMPERATURES DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH READINGS DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S IN THE LOW CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO. NO SIGNIFICANT POPS LEFT FOR THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER...STILL KEEPING THE DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST ZONES AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHALLOW CLOUD DEPTH SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT. MAY NEED TO UPGRADE THIS TO LOW END POPS. EXPECT THE WIND TO DECREASE A BIT...ESPECIALLY THE GUSTS...THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE STILL AT WORK...WILL BE FAR FROM A CALM OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ON THE STRONG SIDE...SO MIXING TOMORROW WILL BRING ADDITIONAL GUSTY CONDITIONS...BUT NOT WHAT THEY ARE WITH THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY ROLLING THROUGH. MOUNTAINS WILL STILL SEE 25-35KTS. CONSIDERABLY COOLER DAY EXPECTED FRIDAY...BUT SOME SUN NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOWLANDS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL OSCILLATE IN AND OUT OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY WITH A REINFORCING UPPER TROUGH SLATED TO DROP CLOUDS BACK INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO HEADING INTO THE SHORT TERM. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... UPSLOPE CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE ON FRIDAY...BRINGING AN END TO ANY DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY MORNING. A DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA...WITH MORE UPSLOPE CLOUDS FORMING BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH IS VERY LIMITED AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR OVER TURNING...SO ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT. WITH WINDS CONTINUING FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE WHICH TENDS TO ALWAYS INCLUDE RADIATION. CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN WILL ERODE ON SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONTINUED TO RUN COLD FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS REMAINING COLD POOL STRATOCUMULUS THIN AND EVAPORATE IN THE NE...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW. WENT COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE...BUT GFS MOS EXTENDED GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CATCHING UP TO OUR THINKING FROM THE PAST 2 DAYS. THE WEATHER PATTERN SEEMS TO REPEAT ITSELF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO THE CURRENT PATTERN. YET...NOTHING REPEATS EXACTLY THE SAME. THE SURFACE LOW TRACK MAY BE A BIT FURTHER EAST...IN COMPARISON TO THE CURRENT LOW TRACK. THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION IS MUCH FASTER THEN THE GFS FOR DAY 7. A PROLONG SE FLOW SHOULD START GRADUALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN PICK UP IN STRENGTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WIND ADVISORY HAZARD FOR THOSE LATE PERIODS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING INITIAL RENEGADE DEEPER MOISTURE AND THUS POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HAVE SOME 20 TO 40 POPS DEVELOPING IN THE WEST AND ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...BUT TRY TO HOLD POPS DOWN IN SE DOWNSLOPE FOR A TIME INTO TUESDAY. WILL ALSO TRY TO DEPICT SOME SE WARMING CRW TO CKB TUESDAY...WHILE HOLDING BKW COOLER. HAVE HIGHEST POPS WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE WIND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING AT THE ISSUANCE TIME. WINDS VEERING TO AROUND THE 260 DIRECTION...WITH GUSTS AREA WIDE IN THE 30-40KT RANGE. CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE DRIZZLE...BUT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WIND GUSTS AND DIRECTIONS MAY VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EST 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY EXPERIENCE IFR CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ007>011- 014>020-027>032-035>040-046-047. OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075- 076-084-085. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...KTB AVIATION...26