FXUS62 KTAE 040911 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 411 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2012 .SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)... While the deep upper trough continues to pull northeast and away from the region, cold high pressure remains parked over the deep south with a hard freeze in progress across the forecast area. Thicknesses will be on the rise today with temperatures recovering into the mid 50s. A shortwave trough will help to reinforce the mean trough over the eastern states tonight. However, no additional cold air is expected with the associated weak sfc front. With the gradient still very weak tonight, expect temperatures to drop back near the freezing mark. Coldest temperatures are expected over the eastern zones where winds should fully decouple. A more substantial warming trend will begin Thursday as an upper ridge builds over the Southeast. High temperatures should reach the mid 60s on Thursday and the upper 60s for Friday. Low temperatures Friday morning should stay above freezing, reaching the mid to upper 30s. .LONG TERM (Friday Night through next Wednesday)... There will be an interesting evolution from a weak and generally zonal flow pattern at the beginning of the long term period towards a highly amplified flow pattern with a western ridge and eastern trough just beyond the scope of this forecast period. Oddly enough, the majority of deterministic and ensemble solutions indicate the deep trough over the eastern U.S. by next Thursday and Friday, but there is a high degree of variability in how we "get from point A to point B". The few upper level shortwaves that will be ejecting east along the Gulf Coast region in the subtropical jet stream should be deamplifying as they approach the Atlantic, which does not inspire a lot of confidence in any significant frontal passages or rainfall. Additionally, these shortwaves will be originating from closed or cutoff upper level lows over the southern Plains with fairly regular wave breaking over the CONUS. Timing the ejection of cutoff upper level lows is very tricky (particularly more than a few days into the future), and thus it isn't too surprising to see the model differences that have emerged. Rising heights and a building upper level ridge are expected along the Pacific Coast this weekend as an enhanced East Asian Jet extends past the International Date Line. In conjunction, broad and low amplitude troughiness is expected to develop downstream over the central and eastern United States. A surface low associated with the northern jet stream will track east near the Canadian border, gradually dragging a cold front southeast across the eastern CONUS. This front will be slow to approach from the northwest and traverse the forecast area. PoPs were introduced from west to east on Friday Night. Models disagree on exact timing from there, but the general theme is southeast progression of the cold front with high pressure and a drier air mass building in afterwards early next week. Thus, PoPs were gradually tapered off from NW to SE late Sunday. Northerly flow and dry weather were forecast on Monday and Tuesday, with winds gradually swinging back around to the southeast with increasing PoPs by Wednesday ahead of the next approaching trough. We may see another cooldown towards the end of the week given model consistency in developing a deep east coast upper level trough. && .AVIATION (through 06z Thursday)...No major changes were made to the inherited set of TAFs. Most models do show an increase in mid-upper level humidity towards the 00-06z Thursday timeframe and CRAS model simulated cloud cover shows a slight increase from the W/NW this evening. Therefore, some scattered high clouds were added after 00z. Other than that, plenty of sunshine is expected with light winds. && .MARINE...Winds and seas will remain very light through today. Offshore winds will increase slightly tonight in the wake of a weak cold front. However, winds and seas will remain below headline criteria. Onshore flow will develop by this weekend with winds still expected to remain below headline levels. && .FIRE WEATHER...No changes were made to the inherited Red Flag Warning distribution or timing. Current grids call for about 5hr durations of RH below 25% in our SE Alabama zones, and about 6-7hr durations in our SW Georgia zones. While winds and Dispersions will be low today, any Florida county that has ERC values over 35 should easily attain red flag criteria. For now, the forecast ERC is only over 35 in Leon and Wakulla Counties. This is where the existing RF.W was, so no changes were made. Forecast minimum RH values are right around 38-40% on Thursday. Dispersions are forecast to be higher (75-90) east of the Apalachicola River, so if subsequent forecasts are drier with RH for Thursday it could warrant a fire weather headline. Moisture will increase after Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 54 32 66 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 10 Panama City 55 43 65 47 67 / 0 0 10 0 10 Dothan 55 36 63 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 Albany 54 31 63 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 53 30 63 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 Cross City 54 29 67 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 53 40 64 45 65 / 0 0 10 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for Coffee-Dale- Geneva-Henry-Houston. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 4 PM CST this afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. GA...Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur- Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller- Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift- Turner-Worth. Red Flag Warning from Noon today to 5 PM EST this afternoon for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook- Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes- Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas- Tift-Turner-Worth. FL...Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor- Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie- Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor- Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty- Madison-South Walton-Washington. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for Coastal Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon. GM...None. && $$ Camp/Lamers  FXUS62 KTAE 041129 AAA AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 630 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2012 Updated most recently for the Aviation Discussion. .SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)... While the deep upper trough continues to pull northeast and away from the region, cold high pressure remains parked over the deep south with a hard freeze in progress across the forecast area. Thicknesses will be on the rise today with temperatures recovering into the mid 50s. A shortwave trough will help to reinforce the mean trough over the eastern states tonight. However, no additional cold air is expected with the associated weak sfc front. With the gradient still very weak tonight, expect temperatures to drop back near the freezing mark. Coldest temperatures are expected over the eastern zones where winds should fully decouple. A more substantial warming trend will begin Thursday as an upper ridge builds over the Southeast. High temperatures should reach the mid 60s on Thursday and the upper 60s for Friday. Low temperatures Friday morning should stay above freezing, reaching the mid to upper 30s. .LONG TERM (Friday Night through next Wednesday)... There will be an interesting evolution from a weak and generally zonal flow pattern at the beginning of the long term period towards a highly amplified flow pattern with a western ridge and eastern trough just beyond the scope of this forecast period. Oddly enough, the majority of deterministic and ensemble solutions indicate the deep trough over the eastern U.S. by next Thursday and Friday, but there is a high degree of variability in how we "get from point A to point B". The few upper level shortwaves that will be ejecting east along the Gulf Coast region in the subtropical jet stream should be deamplifying as they approach the Atlantic, which does not inspire a lot of confidence in any significant frontal passages or rainfall. Additionally, these shortwaves will be originating from closed or cutoff upper level lows over the southern Plains with fairly regular wave breaking over the CONUS. Timing the ejection of cutoff upper level lows is very tricky (particularly more than a few days into the future), and thus it isn't too surprising to see the model differences that have emerged. Rising heights and a building upper level ridge are expected along the Pacific Coast this weekend as an enhanced East Asian Jet extends past the International Date Line. In conjunction, broad and low amplitude troughiness is expected to develop downstream over the central and eastern United States. A surface low associated with the northern jet stream will track east near the Canadian border, gradually dragging a cold front southeast across the eastern CONUS. This front will be slow to approach from the northwest and traverse the forecast area. PoPs were introduced from west to east on Friday Night. Models disagree on exact timing from there, but the general theme is southeast progression of the cold front with high pressure and a drier air mass building in afterwards early next week. Thus, PoPs were gradually tapered off from NW to SE late Sunday. Northerly flow and dry weather were forecast on Monday and Tuesday, with winds gradually swinging back around to the southeast with increasing PoPs by Wednesday ahead of the next approaching trough. We may see another cooldown towards the end of the week given model consistency in developing a deep east coast upper level trough. && .AVIATION (through 12z Thursday)...The 06z set of TAFs still looks in good shape and only minor tweaks were made to the wind direction. The previous discussion is as follows: most models do show an increase in mid-upper level humidity towards the 00-06z Thursday timeframe and CRAS model simulated cloud cover shows a slight increase from the W/NW this evening. Therefore, some scattered high clouds were added after 00z. Other than that, plenty of sunshine is expected with light winds. && .MARINE...Winds and seas will remain very light through today. Offshore winds will increase slightly tonight in the wake of a weak cold front. However, winds and seas will remain below headline criteria. Onshore flow will develop by this weekend with winds still expected to remain below headline levels. && .FIRE WEATHER...No changes were made to the inherited Red Flag Warning distribution or timing. Current grids call for about 5hr durations of RH below 25% in our SE Alabama zones, and about 6-7hr durations in our SW Georgia zones. While winds and Dispersions will be low today, any Florida county that has ERC values over 35 should easily attain red flag criteria. For now, the forecast ERC is only over 35 in Leon and Wakulla Counties. This is where the existing RF.W was, so no changes were made. Forecast minimum RH values are right around 38-40% on Thursday. Dispersions are forecast to be higher (75-90) east of the Apalachicola River, so if subsequent forecasts are drier with RH for Thursday it could warrant a fire weather headline. Moisture will increase after Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 54 32 66 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 10 Panama City 55 43 65 47 67 / 0 0 10 0 10 Dothan 55 36 63 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 Albany 54 31 63 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 53 30 63 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 Cross City 54 29 67 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 53 40 64 45 65 / 0 0 10 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for Coffee-Dale- Geneva-Henry-Houston. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 4 PM CST this afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. GA...Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur- Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller- Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift- Turner-Worth. Red Flag Warning from Noon today to 5 PM EST this afternoon for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook- Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes- Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas- Tift-Turner-Worth. FL...Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor- Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie- Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor- Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty- Madison-South Walton-Washington. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for Coastal Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon. GM...None. && $$ Camp/Lamers  FXUS62 KTAE 040911 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 411 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2012 .SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)... While the deep upper trough continues to pull northeast and away from the region, cold high pressure remains parked over the deep south with a hard freeze in progress across the forecast area. Thicknesses will be on the rise today with temperatures recovering into the mid 50s. A shortwave trough will help to reinforce the mean trough over the eastern states tonight. However, no additional cold air is expected with the associated weak sfc front. With the gradient still very weak tonight, expect temperatures to drop back near the freezing mark. Coldest temperatures are expected over the eastern zones where winds should fully decouple. A more substantial warming trend will begin Thursday as an upper ridge builds over the Southeast. High temperatures should reach the mid 60s on Thursday and the upper 60s for Friday. Low temperatures Friday morning should stay above freezing, reaching the mid to upper 30s. .LONG TERM (Friday Night through next Wednesday)... There will be an interesting evolution from a weak and generally zonal flow pattern at the beginning of the long term period towards a highly amplified flow pattern with a western ridge and eastern trough just beyond the scope of this forecast period. Oddly enough, the majority of deterministic and ensemble solutions indicate the deep trough over the eastern U.S. by next Thursday and Friday, but there is a high degree of variability in how we "get from point A to point B". The few upper level shortwaves that will be ejecting east along the Gulf Coast region in the subtropical jet stream should be deamplifying as they approach the Atlantic, which does not inspire a lot of confidence in any significant frontal passages or rainfall. Additionally, these shortwaves will be originating from closed or cutoff upper level lows over the southern Plains with fairly regular wave breaking over the CONUS. Timing the ejection of cutoff upper level lows is very tricky (particularly more than a few days into the future), and thus it isn't too surprising to see the model differences that have emerged. Rising heights and a building upper level ridge are expected along the Pacific Coast this weekend as an enhanced East Asian Jet extends past the International Date Line. In conjunction, broad and low amplitude troughiness is expected to develop downstream over the central and eastern United States. A surface low associated with the northern jet stream will track east near the Canadian border, gradually dragging a cold front southeast across the eastern CONUS. This front will be slow to approach from the northwest and traverse the forecast area. PoPs were introduced from west to east on Friday Night. Models disagree on exact timing from there, but the general theme is southeast progression of the cold front with high pressure and a drier air mass building in afterwards early next week. Thus, PoPs were gradually tapered off from NW to SE late Sunday. Northerly flow and dry weather were forecast on Monday and Tuesday, with winds gradually swinging back around to the southeast with increasing PoPs by Wednesday ahead of the next approaching trough. We may see another cooldown towards the end of the week given model consistency in developing a deep east coast upper level trough. && .AVIATION (through 06z Thursday)...No major changes were made to the inherited set of TAFs. Most models do show an increase in mid-upper level humidity towards the 00-06z Thursday timeframe and CRAS model simulated cloud cover shows a slight increase from the W/NW this evening. Therefore, some scattered high clouds were added after 00z. Other than that, plenty of sunshine is expected with light winds. && .MARINE...Winds and seas will remain very light through today. Offshore winds will increase slightly tonight in the wake of a weak cold front. However, winds and seas will remain below headline criteria. Onshore flow will develop by this weekend with winds still expected to remain below headline levels. && .FIRE WEATHER...No changes were made to the inherited Red Flag Warning distribution or timing. Current grids call for about 5hr durations of RH below 25% in our SE Alabama zones, and about 6-7hr durations in our SW Georgia zones. While winds and Dispersions will be low today, any Florida county that has ERC values over 35 should easily attain red flag criteria. For now, the forecast ERC is only over 35 in Leon and Wakulla Counties. This is where the existing RF.W was, so no changes were made. Forecast minimum RH values are right around 38-40% on Thursday. Dispersions are forecast to be higher (75-90) east of the Apalachicola River, so if subsequent forecasts are drier with RH for Thursday it could warrant a fire weather headline. Moisture will increase after Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 54 32 66 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 10 Panama City 55 43 65 47 67 / 0 0 10 0 10 Dothan 55 36 63 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 Albany 54 31 63 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 53 30 63 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 Cross City 54 29 67 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 53 40 64 45 65 / 0 0 10 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for Coffee-Dale- Geneva-Henry-Houston. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 4 PM CST this afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. GA...Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur- Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller- Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift- Turner-Worth. Red Flag Warning from Noon today to 5 PM EST this afternoon for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook- Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes- Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas- Tift-Turner-Worth. FL...Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor- Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie- Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor- Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty- Madison-South Walton-Washington. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for Coastal Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon. GM...None. && $$ Camp/Lamers  FXUS62 KTAE 041502 AAA AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 958 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2012 .DISCUSSION...We experienced our first hard freeze of the winter season across the region this morning with low temperatures ranging from the upper teens to middle 20s. A few record temperatures were tied including Tallahassee with a low of 18 and Apalachicola at 26 degrees. This was our coldest morning since January 14th of last year. Our temperatures will rebound into the mid 50s this afternoon with only a few cirrus late in the day. We will update zones shortly only to remove the hard freeze headline after the warning expires. && .MARINE...Winds and seas will remain very light through today. Offshore winds will increase slightly tonight in the wake of a weak cold front. However, winds and seas will remain below headline criteria. Onshore flow will develop by this weekend with winds still expected to remain below headline levels. && .AVIATION (through 12z Thursday)...The 06z set of TAFs still looks in good shape and only minor tweaks were made to the wind direction. The previous discussion is as follows: most models do show an increase in mid-upper level humidity towards the 00-06z Thursday time frame and CRAS model simulated cloud cover shows a slight increase from the W/NW this evening. Therefore, some scattered high clouds were added after 00z. Other than that, plenty of sunshine is expected with light winds. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS(630 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2012)... .SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)... While the deep upper trough continues to pull northeast and away from the region, cold high pressure remains parked over the deep south with a hard freeze in progress across the forecast area. Thicknesses will be on the rise today with temperatures recovering into the mid 50s. A shortwave trough will help to reinforce the mean trough over the eastern states tonight. However, no additional cold air is expected with the associated weak sfc front. With the gradient still very weak tonight, expect temperatures to drop back near the freezing mark. Coldest temperatures are expected over the eastern zones where winds should fully decouple. A more substantial warming trend will begin Thursday as an upper ridge builds over the Southeast. High temperatures should reach the mid 60s on Thursday and the upper 60s for Friday. Low temperatures Friday morning should stay above freezing, reaching the mid to upper 30s. .LONG TERM (Friday Night through next Wednesday)... There will be an interesting evolution from a weak and generally zonal flow pattern at the beginning of the long term period towards a highly amplified flow pattern with a western ridge and eastern trough just beyond the scope of this forecast period. Oddly enough, the majority of deterministic and ensemble solutions indicate the deep trough over the eastern U.S. by next Thursday and Friday, but there is a high degree of variability in how we "get from point A to point B". The few upper level shortwaves that will be ejecting east along the Gulf Coast region in the subtropical jet stream should be deamplifying as they approach the Atlantic, which does not inspire a lot of confidence in any significant frontal passages or rainfall. Additionally, these shortwaves will be originating from closed or cutoff upper level lows over the southern Plains with fairly regular wave breaking over the CONUS. Timing the ejection of cutoff upper level lows is very tricky (particularly more than a few days into the future), and thus it isn't too surprising to see the model differences that have emerged. Rising heights and a building upper level ridge are expected along the Pacific Coast this weekend as an enhanced East Asian Jet extends past the International Date Line. In conjunction, broad and low amplitude troughiness is expected to develop downstream over the central and eastern United States. A surface low associated with the northern jet stream will track east near the Canadian border, gradually dragging a cold front southeast across the eastern CONUS. This front will be slow to approach from the northwest and traverse the forecast area. PoPs were introduced from west to east on Friday Night. Models disagree on exact timing from there, but the general theme is southeast progression of the cold front with high pressure and a drier air mass building in afterwards early next week. Thus, PoPs were gradually tapered off from NW to SE late Sunday. Northerly flow and dry weather were forecast on Monday and Tuesday, with winds gradually swinging back around to the southeast with increasing PoPs by Wednesday ahead of the next approaching trough. We may see another cool down towards the end of the week given model consistency in developing a deep east coast upper level trough. && .FIRE WEATHER...No changes were made to the inherited Red Flag Warning distribution or timing. Current grids call for about 5hr durations of RH below 25% in our SE Alabama zones, and about 6-7hr durations in our SW Georgia zones. While winds and Dispersions will be low today, any Florida county that has ERC values over 35 should easily attain red flag criteria. For now, the forecast ERC is only over 35 in Leon and Wakulla Counties. This is where the existing RF.W was, so no changes were made. Forecast minimum RH values are right around 38-40% on Thursday. Dispersions are forecast to be higher (75-90) east of the Apalachicola River, so if subsequent forecasts are drier with RH for Thursday it could warrant a fire weather headline. Moisture will increase after Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 54 32 66 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 10 Panama City 55 43 65 47 67 / 0 0 10 0 10 Dothan 55 36 63 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 Albany 54 31 63 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 53 30 63 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 Cross City 54 29 67 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 53 40 64 45 65 / 0 0 10 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 4 PM CST this afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. GA...Red Flag Warning from Noon today to 5 PM EST this afternoon for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook- Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes- Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas- Tift-Turner-Worth. FL...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for Coastal Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon. GM...None. && $$ Camp/Lamers/Barry