FXUS63 KMPX 040832 AFDMPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 332 AM CDT MON OCT 4 2010 .DISCUSSION... LARGE GREAT LAKES HIGH REMAINS MAIN WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING THE REGION TODAY INTO TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...PERHAPS NOT AS WARM AS MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS INDICATE. COOL START WILL YIELD DRY AIR AND QUICK RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST. COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME DOWNSLOPE AFFECT TO AREAS ON THE LEE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THIS CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...BUT GRADIENT DOES INCREASE SOME AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF AGAIN TO THE EAST AS WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE FROM THE COOL/DRY BNDRY LAYER AGAIN. THE WEST CWA MAY NOT SO MUCH...WITH WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED. MODEL TRENDS ARE INDICATING FRONT TO MOVE IN A BIT FASTER...COMING INTO THE NW LATE TUE NIGHT AND EXITING THE CWA BY WED AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT DOES APPEAR TO BE A STRONG WAVE ASSOCIATED. 00Z CRAS FCST WV IMAGERY SHOWING STRONG DRYING BEHIND WAVE AND THIS WAS THE IMPETUS FOR COLLAB CHANGES MADE TO DEWPTS FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE THEM DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER 30S AT LEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BEHIND THE FRONT. ONLY BRIEF COOLING ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH HEIGHTS RISING AGAIN AHEAD OF SOUTHWEST CONUS CUTOFF LOW. TIMING OF THIS IN QUESTION IS THE LONG RANGE. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE INDICATING THAT IT COULD AFFECT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ THE CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER FOR THE AVIATION COMMUNITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HRS. ONLY A FEW MINOR PROBLEMS WITH FG/BR FOR EAU IN THE MORNING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIVER AND LAKE NEAR THE AIRPORT. WNDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE S/SE OVERNIGHT AND THRU TOMORROW WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO 22 KTS AT RWF/AXN DURING LATE MORNING/AFTN. MSP...SE WNDS ARND 7 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO THE S/SW MONDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO ARND 11-13 KTS. A FEW GUSTS OF 16 TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. ..JLT.. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ DWE/JPR  FXUS63 KMPX 270837 AFDMPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 337 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 .DISCUSSION... THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN IS IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING ATTM. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE TODAY ALONG A FRONT FROM OHIO RIVER VLY INTO CTRL GREAT LAKES AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD KEEP MN/WI IN MOIST CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TODAY WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW GRADUALLY ABATING ON THURSDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A CLOUDY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE CWA. THE NAM AND UW-MADISON CRAS MODEL SIMULATED CLOUD COVER PRODUCTS SHOW A FEW SMALL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BUT THE OVERALL THEME IS A PERSISTENT LOW-MID CLOUD DECK. FOR THOSE REASONS...HIGHS WERE TRENDED DOWN FOR TODAY... ESPECIALLY IN THE NE HALF OF THE CWA. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SCTD SHOWERS CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON RADAR WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WITH SFC TEMPS GENERALLY OVER 36 DEGREES...THE TREND OF LESSENING THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF R/S MIX WAS CONTINUED FROM WHAT THE EVENING SHIFT HAD ALREADY DONE. THERE MAY BE A LULL WITH LOWER COVERAGE / INTENSITY OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST SURFACE LOW WEAKENS. MODELS SHOW LOW TO MID LVL FGEN INCREASING AGAIN JUST AFTER 00Z...AND THIS MAY BE WHEN STEADIER RAIN RE-DEVELOPS. THE LATEST 4KM WRF RUNS SUPPORT THIS TREND...AND EXIT PRECIP FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA ON THURS AM. THE NEXT LOW WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FRI NGT AND SAT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE ENTIRE SYSTEM ON THE 00Z RUNS...AND SEEM TO POINT TO 06Z TO 18Z SAT AS THE MAIN WINDOW FOR PRECIP. THEREFORE...THE RELATED GRID EDITS WERE TO BUMP THINGS UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF SRN AND CTRL MN FRI NGT AND TO CUT BACK INHERITED POPS SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT. GFS FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE ELEVATED CAPE VALUES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG...SUFFICIENT FOR SOME THUNDER...SO THAT WORDING WAS MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS. AJL && .AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER EASTERN PORTION OF MN AND WESTERN PORTION OF WI THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. CIGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH IFR CIGS IN RAIN/SNOW. THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING AS LOW DRIFTS EAST. WILL KEEP PREVIOUS TREND FOR PRECIP FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IT IS SCATTERED IN NATURE. ALSO...THERE IS STILL A THREAT FOR RAIN/SNOW MIXED AT KSTC/KEAU/KMSP/KRNH FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MS && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ AJL/MS