FXUS63 KMKX 191746 CCA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1244 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2010 .SHORT TERM... LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. IN ADDITION LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES NORTH INTO MINNESOTA...WEAKENING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO WISCONSIN. BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE TO THE NORTH. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SAG SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT THERE IS MAINLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ...WITH WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AROUND 5 MICRO BARS PER SEC LATE THIS AFTERNOON FIGHTING A CAP AROUND 850 MB AS INDICATED IN THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS 850 MB FLOW INCREASES. WEAK 850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES TO OVER 10 MICRO BARS PER SECOND JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. 2000 J/KG CAPE AVAILABLE...BUT AT MADISON STILL HAVE A RATHER STRONG CAP AROUND 850 MB...AND WITH LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE...ELEVATED CAPE IS RATHER MINIMAL IF LIFTED ABOVE THE CAP. ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ELEVATED CAPE OF NEAR 900 MB IS AVAILABLE WITH WEAKER CAP AND MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS COMES LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THE NAM. A TRAILING COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR STARTS OUT AT AROUND 45 KNOTS FRIDAY THEN WEAKENS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER JET MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH NAM CAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG...WEAK CAP...HELICITY NEAR 200 AND BULK RICHARDSON NUMBER JUST OVER 50. HOWEVER BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR LATER THAN THIS WITH SHORTWAVE. NAM AND CRAS BOTH CENTER ON FRIDAY EVENING AS BEST POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISOCNSIN..,....AND MAINLY TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER A DYING MCS WILL COMPLICATE THINGS ON FRIDAY WITH CLOUD DEBRIS. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOOKS REASONABLE. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY...UNTIL COLD FRONT EXITS THE FAR SOUTHEAST AROUND NOON...AGAIN DEPENDING ON ONGOING MCS POTENTIAL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM... SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. SHORTWAVE SLOWS AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EVEN WITH PROXIMITY OF UPPER TROUGH...DRYING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WISCONSIN AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. QPF IS RATHER MEAGER...BUT THE RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE LENDS TO A MENTION OF SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WISCONSIN THURSDAY. THIS BRINGS COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. && .AVIATION... EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI. ELONGATED BAND OF MVFR STRATUS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. CU FIELD EXPANDING ACROSS THE CWA. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL START TO PULL THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AGAIN. WHILE CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN WI. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ AVIATION/MARINE...10/COLLAR  FXUS63 KMKX 241650 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1150 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2010 .SHORT TERM... LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO ONTARIO JET MAX LIFTS NORTHEAST. UPPER DIVERGENCE ALSO IS MAINLY ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA AND NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY CANADA. 500 MB PVA MAX DOES MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BUT IT IS WEAKENING AS THIS OCCURS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPWARD MOTION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW VERY DRY MID LEVELS. MODERATE CAP AROUND 6 THSD FT ON RUC SOUNDINGS THEREFORE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. FRONT MAY WELL MOVE THROUGH DRY. 12Z NAM AND CRAS DOES GENERATE SOME SPOTTY 0.01 TO 0.03 IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GFS IS LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE WITH A SOLID BAND OF 0.01 TO 0.03. LATEST 4 KM WRF ALSO GENERATES A WEAK SCATTERED TO BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT QPF THIS AFTERNOON. TRANSVERSE BANDING OF CIRRUS FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROF AXIS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. DEWPOINTS DROPPING TO THE UPPER 40S ON THE NAM MOS...BUT THIS MAY BE TOO LOW WITH UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE MID 50S OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WITH A RATHER STRONG CAP AROUND 8 THSD FT. MAIN IMPACT BEING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT THE MID 70S...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SURFACE HIGH THEN MOVES OVERHEAD LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LEAVE PATCHY FOG OUT...EXCEPT IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY DUE TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWS SIMILAR TRACK...CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN...SO DECENT CONFIDENCE IN DRY FORECAST AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...WITH TYPICAL FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY AS DEW POINTS SLOWLY RISE. .LONG TERM... SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW...ALTHOUGH MODELS BACK THE SURFACE RIDGE WEST A LITTLE IN THE ECMWF. QPF DRY ON THE MODELS...BUT AS TIME GOES ON MOISTURE INCREASES BUT IT APPEARS MAIN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. NCEP PREFERS THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF OVER THE PRIOR GFS RUNS. LATEST 12Z GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF. && .AVIATION... THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH SRN WI THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE...LIKELY PASSING THRU KMSN AROUND 18Z AND THRU THE ERN TAF SITES BTWN 21Z AND 01Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THRU ERN TAF SITES SHORTLY AFT PEAK HEATING...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING QUITE LIMITED. EXPECTING WDLY SCT -SHRA LATER THIS AFTN WITH ISOLD T AS SURFACE BASED CAPES DO INCREASE TO OVER 400 J/KG. WILL CONTINUE TO USE VCNTY REMARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO EXPECTED SPOTTY NATURE FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. MVFR CIGS WITH THE FRONT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALOFT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEWPT TEMPS WILL BE FALLING...SO VERY MINIMAL FOG THREAT LATE TONIGHT. SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY NW WINDS TO REACH THE SFC WED AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO BE GREATER THAN 20KTS. && .MARINE...WINDS MAY BECOME ONSHORE FROM MKE AND SOUTH FOR A TIME WITH A LAKE BREEZE. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS BTWN 21Z/24 AND 02Z/25...BRINGING WEST TO NW WINDS AGAIN. THE NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SHALLOW LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO LAKE SFC TNGT. THE INVERSION WILL MIX OUT EARLY ON WED ALLOWING GUSTY WINDS TO REACH SFC. CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY CONDITIONS...BUT NOT CONFIDENT OF FREQUENT GUSTS GREATER THAN 22KT. WILL HOLD OFF ON SC.Y FOR NOW. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ AVIATION/MARINE...13/MRC  FXUS63 KMKX 111708 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1208 PM CDT SAT SEP 11 2010 .SHORT TERM... LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE FAR EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH HAS ALREADY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME DRIZZLE...MAINLY EAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION AROUND 6 THSD FT. RUC SOUNDINGS AT MILWAUKEE SHOW INVERSION LOWERING TO AROUND 35 HUNDRED FT BY EVENING. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO BE SLOW TO CLEAR EAST...BUT DIMINISHING CLOUDS SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY THE EARLY EVENING. LATER TONIGHT LIMITING FACTOR FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SURFACE GRADIENT PREVENTING WINDS FROM DECOUPLING TOO MUCH. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY AREA. THIS SHOULD BRING DRY PLEASANT WEATHER SUNDAY. A MORE ZONAL/WNW JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. SETS IN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN. 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE POKES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MODERATE AMOUNT OF UPWARD MOTION AT 700 MB. NAM ALSO SHOWS A WSW LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 KNOTS MOVING ACROSS THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER AREA. NAM ALSO SHOWS ALMOST 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. ONLY NEGATIVE IS LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ENOUGH MOISTURE ABOVE LOW LEVEL INVERSION SO WILL RAISE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT HAS HIGH AS NAM MOS. THIS IS BECAUSE BOTH 12Z GFS AND 12Z CRAS ARE DRY...WITH 00Z ECMWF KEEPING PRECIP JUST TO OUR EAST. THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY...SO WILL GO DRY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ZONAL UPPER JET CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. AND SOUTHERN CANADA. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. GFS AND 00Z ECMWF IS STARTING TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THIS. ECMWF HAS A STRONGER TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO IOWA...WITH GFS WEAKER AND A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS. SINCE ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS IN THIS TIME FRAME...A PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TO THE GFS. .LONG TERM... THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BOTH MODELS BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE WISCONSIN AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS HAS A MORE BROAD TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING TWO MORE DISTINCT SHORTWAVES. BOTH MODELS BRING A WEAK SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS A TROUGH INTO WISCONSIN FRIDAY...WHILE GFS IS SLOWER AND WEAKER. AGAIN AM LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS...AS THE ECMWF 500 MB SHORTWAVE/TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA APPEARS TOO NOISY. SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BOTH 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. SURFACE HIGH THEN BUILDS ACROSS WISCONSIN. && .AVIATION... TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST WI. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MIDDAY AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP MVFR CIGS HANGING AROUND AT MKE AND ENW UNTIL 00Z THIS EVENING UNTIL THE TROUGH FINALLY PASSES. IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI...INCLUDING MSN...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD ERODES AWAY ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NW AFTER 21Z AND MAY GUST TO 20KT FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE 00Z. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AT THE SFC OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS OF 22KT AROUND 1000FT WILL KEEP JUST ENOUGH MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUN...BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. && .MARINE...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1PM. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SW WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MI SUN NGT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ AVIATION/MARINE...13/MRC  FXUS63 KMKX 281714 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1214 PM CDT THU OCT 28 2010 .SHORT TERM... LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD HOLDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS 250 MB UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS SOMEWHAT RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AND WEAK UPWARD 700 MB OMEGA. AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITS AND 500 MB VORTICITY MAX EXITS...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR THIS EVENING SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE...SO WINDS WILL DECOUPLE. GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEST OF MADISON LATE TONIGHT...BUT STILL SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL RH AND 20 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS AT MILWAUKEE AT AROUND 500 FEET. WITH DEW POINTS FALLING OFF TO THE UPPER TEENS WEST TO LOWER TO MID 20S EAST...EXPECT MID 20 LOWS OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH LOWS JUST BELOW FREEZING AT MILWAUKEE. FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS FRIDAY WHILE MAIN 700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT. 40 KNOT SOUTHWEST 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER RH IS VERY DRY TO BEGIN WITH...AND RH AT 700 AND 850 REMAIN BELOW 50 PCT. AS A RESULT ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS AT BEST. SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE 00Z ECMWF WEAKER WITH THIS TROUGH. UKMET ALSO TRENDING TOWARD THE WEAKER 00Z ECMWF. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST...A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MAIN PROBLEM IS STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH THE GFS AND NAM COLDER WHILE THE ECMWF WITH THE WEAKER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS NOT AS COLD. UKMET IS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS AND WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST BASED ON THE LOW RH. SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING PRECIP TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET MOVING EAST ACROSS ILLINOIS. 00Z ECMWF IS QUICKER AND STRONGER THAN 12Z GFS...BUT 12Z UKMET IS SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF. CRAS MODEL IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF BUT JUST A BIT WEAKER. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN...WITH SMALL POPS IN THE SOUTH SUNDAY. .LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. 12Z GFS CONTINUES THE TREND ON DEVELOPING AN UPPER LOW NEAR ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY....WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN U.S. WITH A SMALLER UPPER LOW FARTHER SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. 06Z DGEX IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO. MAIN FORECAST DIFFERENCE WILL BE COLDER TEMPERATURES OFF THE ECMWF AND SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY DUE TO A STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE RETURNING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND HIGHER MOISTURE. WILL USE A CONSENSUS AND TREND TOWARD DRY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM 06Z DGEX IS CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE GFS KEEPING AN UPPER LOW NEAR LOUISIANA. EITHER WAY OUR AREA REMAINS DRY...BUT GFS IS WARMER DUE TO A WEAK WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. 06Z DEX IS ACTUALLY WARMER THAN THE ECMWF...DESPITE A MORE SIMILAR TROUGH OVER THE EAST. AGAIN CONSENSUS APPEARS THE BEST WAY TO GO. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ AVIATION/MARINE...08/WOOD  FXUS63 KMKX 151748 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1148 AM CST MON NOV 15 2010 SHORT TERM... TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS SHEAR ZONE GETS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS MAIN MID/UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL DROP INTO IOWA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY A CLOUD ISSUE WITH MID LEVELS MOISTENING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THE SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND MOST QPF WOULD STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION. MOST MODELS PAINT A HUNDREDTH OR SO OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT CRAS MODEL IS DRY. BOTH NAM AND GFS MOS POPS ARE LOW...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES AT MOST OVER THE FAR WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD...IN THE LOWER 50S...WITH THE 925MB TEMPS AROUND 6C AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOCTURNAL INVERSION MIXING OUT. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE KENTUCKY REGION AND MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. MEANWHILE SECOND SHORTWAVE EXITS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY...REACHING KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. A SECOND LOW MOVES ACROSS MISSOURI WEDNESDAY WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE . 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRING A HUNDREDTH OR SO ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING ALMOST 0.20 INCHES TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE OF A SURFACE TROUGH. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA/OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MAINLY UPPER MOISTURE WITH LIMITED UPWARD MOTION. THICKNESS VALUES WOULD BE SNOW...BUT STILL A RATHER WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. TOP DOWN METHOD WOULD INDICATE MORE LIQUID IF ONLY THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES INTO PLAY. CRAS MODEL IS DRY WITH NAM ONLY SHOWING LIGHT QPF MAINLY NORTH OF MILWAUKEE POSSIBLY MAINLY DUE TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTHEAST WINDS. EVEN SO POPS WOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. LONG TERM... THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND ZONAL FLOW OCCURRS THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING WSW ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE U.S./CANADAIN BORDER AREA THURSDAY. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS HAVE THE QPF WELL TO OUR NORTH. A TRAILING DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY,..WHILE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS WARM AIR ADVECTION BACK WITH A STRONGER SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 06Z DGEX IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO. 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z DGEX SEEM BETTER SINCE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO BRING THE COLD AIR TOO FAR SOUTH WITH A WSW UPPER FLOW. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP WITH A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MAIN PROBLEM IS MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF WEAK SHORTWAVES PUSHING NORTHEAST IN THE UPPER JET. DESPITE DIFFERENCES AND TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY THICKNESS VALUES ARE SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THICKNESS INDICATES RAIN...SO LOW TO MEDIUM POPS SEEM REASONABLE AND MAINLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ AVIATION/MARINE...08/WWOD  FXUS63 KMKX 290850 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 250 AM CST MON NOV 29 2010 TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS MOVES EAST AND BECOMES MORE NEGATIVE TILT THIS EVENING AS STRONG UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE STRONGER UPPER DIVERGENCE EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG 850 MB UPPER JET BECOMES MORE FOCUSED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THE SAME TIME. AS A RESULT STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING WITH UP TO 15 MICROBARS/SEC OF UPWARD MOTION AT 700 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO OVER 0.5 INCH BY THIS EVENING...AND APPROACHES 1 INCH IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. UNTIL THEN RATHER DRY LOW/MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CIRRUS THIS MORNING...THEN WITH STRONG DYNAMICS OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH EXPECT A RAPID SATURATION AND PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT SWEEPING ACROSS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME ELEVATED CAPE OF 80 J/KG BUT THIS IS ABOVE 650 MB THIS EVENING. SPC GENERAL THUNDER IS JUST TO THE SOUTH...SO FOR NOW WILL LEAVE ANY THUNDER POSSIBILITIES OUT. MID LEVEL DRY WEDGE OF AIR ROTATES AROUND UPPER LOW INTO SRN WI DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CRAS IR FORECAST SHOWS THIS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 09Z. AS THE MID LEVEL DRYING ABOVE 800MB OCCURS...EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT COOLS MID/UPPER LAYERS BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION LIQUID. .TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM COLD FRONT WILL MARCH WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY MORNING. BULK OF MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SO MUCH OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. STILL...SHOULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS SWING UPPER WAVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY...SO LINGERED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NW WI. SECONDARY UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SO LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND SECONDARY UPPER WAVE WILL LIKELY CONFINE HIGHS TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...BUT BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL COMBAT ANY COMFORT FROM THE SUNSHINE...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS. .THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MODELS SHOWING SLIGHTLY MODERATING 925 MB TEMPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT SFC TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL AT LEAST MAKE THINGS MORE TOLERABLE THAN ON WEDNESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW MODELS ADVERTISING A SYSTEM FOR LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. STILL NOT MUCH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODELS...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW TRACK...THOUGH STILL BOUNCING AROUND A BIT. LATEST ECMWF RUN RETURNED TO IDEAL TRACK OVER ILLINOIS...WITH ALL SNOW FOR SRN WI..WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAKENING WAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH. THOUGH DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR...THIS SYSTEM STILL BEARS WATCHING AS THE ECMWF KEEPS HINTING AT OUR FIRST SNOW EVENT. CURRENTLY NOT SEEING MUCH FOR SUNDAY...SO WENT WITH DRY FORECAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL RUN A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. && .AVIATION... EXPECT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING AS ATMOSPHERE IS INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY. MAIN CONCERN IS WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. 2 THSD FT WINDS AROUND 50 KNOTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND 40 KNOTS OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS ARE WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE NEAR THE SURFACE THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATE THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AS LOW OVER THE PLAINS MOVES TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND INTENSIFIES. MOISTURE AND UPWARD MOTION INCREASE AND EXPECT RAPID SATURATION AND A QUICK PROGRESSION TO MVFR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THEN IFR/LIFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING IN RAIN/FOG/STRATUS. && .MARINE... TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW EXITING THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND INTENSIFY TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING WINDS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE CONDITIONS...HOWEVER WITH WARMER SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AS JUST ENOUGH STABILITY TO PREVENT MIXING OF GALE WINDS TO THE SURFACE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE LOW/TROUGH. HOWEVER THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR WAVES TO SUBSIDE BEFORE POST FRONTAL GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS IN AGAIN WITH INCREASING WINDS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV/07 TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ/06  FXUS63 KMKX 150823 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 223 AM CST WED DEC 15 2010 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. AT 300 MB ONE JET MAX ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MOVES OFF...AS A SECOND PUSHES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PLACES SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN MORE OR LESS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF DEPARTING JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING JET MAX. RESULTANT UPPER DIVERGENCE...COMBINES WITH LOW/MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY WITH MODERATE 700 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. SATURATION OCCURS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 2 G/KG OF MOISTURE AT 700 MB TONIGHT...WITH ALMOST 3 G/KG IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN QPF...BUT GFS SPREADS LIGHT QPF A BIT FARTHER NORTHEAST. CRAS MODEL IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH OF THE OTHER MODELS IN ITS MAX QPF...AND A BIT SLOWER. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW OVER LAFAYETTE COUNTY WHERE A DECENT CHANCE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LINGER THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. .THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM FORCING TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AS STRONGER WAVE PULLS AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH WEAKER WAVE WASHING OUT AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. STILL ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT UP TO ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S...WILL FEEL ON THE MILD SIDE COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. .FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON FRIDAY...MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE CANADIAN MODEL STILL SPITTING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS MOISTURE VERY SHALLOW ON GFS SOUNDINGS. SRN WI WILL THEN BE CAUGHT BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE ON SATURDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. COLDER AIR WILL RETURN AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...WITH HIGHS A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. .SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM MODELS ALL SHOWING GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A WAVE OR TWO SWINGING THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. STILL POOR AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AS TO TIMING/STRENGTH/LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MONDAY. NOT CURRENTLY SEEING ANY FEATURES WARRANTING POPS FOR TUESDAY. THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES ARE QUESTIONABLE...SEEMS REASONABLE THAT PERSISTENT TROUGHING PATTERN WILL KEEP MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES GOING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. AT 300 MB ONE JET MAX ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MOVES OFF...AS A SECOND PUSHES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PLACES SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN MORE OR LESS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF DEPARTING JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING JET MAX. RESULTANT UPPER DIVERGENCE...COMBINES WITH LOW/MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY AT MADISON AND KENOSHA. IFR CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY IN AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF MADISON TONIGHT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ067. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...DDV/07 AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ/06  FXUS63 KMKX 221951 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 151 PM CST WED DEC 22 2010 .SHORT TERM... .TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE HIGH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER. MAIN QUESTIONS ARE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES AND FOG. DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST HELPED BRING PARTIAL CLEARING IN SPOTS EARLIER TODAY. PARTIAL CLOUDINESS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKE...AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL...DROPPING INTO THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT RANGE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS WOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL TO LOW LYING AREAS...DESPITE LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS INLAND. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON NAM/GFS/RUC SHOWING A THIN SATURATED LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE DEVELOPING TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILDER IF THIS OCCURS. THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST. FOR NOW...THINK THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...AND WILL LEAVE OUT FOG MENTION WITH THE DRIER AIR. EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. NAM KEEPS LOW STRATUS AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH GFS MIXING OUT THIS LAYER. WILL KEEP PARTLY SUNNY SKIES GOING FOR THURSDAY...WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. .FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MODELS HAVE ONE SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN WEATHER PRODUCE WILL BE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. NAM LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP AND WEAK ISOTHERMAL LAYER EXISTS ABOVE 900 THROUGH 775 MB. NAM SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO FAIRLY DRY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS. PREFER THE GFS/ECMWF/CRAS WHICH BRINGS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS/ECMWF HAS MORE MOISTURE WITH THE FRIDAY SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...ENOUGH FOR A DUSTING OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. LAKE POTENTIAL IS GREATER MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES EXTEND TO 800 MB ON THE GFS ALONG WITH A FAIRLY SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. NAM HAS A LOWER INVERSION WITH THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ONLY EXTENDING TO 900 MB. .SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AREA. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS IN THE COLDER NORTH/NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH AND CLOSES OFF. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE EVOLUTION...BUT MAIN DIFFERENCES MATTER MOST TO AREAS TO OUR EAST. OVER OUR AREA COLD NORTH FLOW DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS MINNESOTA AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO 750 MB OFF THE GFS SOUNDINGS AND LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL. .LONG TERM... .MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EASTERN U.S. AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...LOWERING THE INVERSION LEVEL AND ENDING THE LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL. .TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM UPPER FLOW BECOME MORE ZONAL. AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. HOWEVER ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY AS LARGE HIGH CUTS OFF ANY GULF MOISTURE. THEREFORE PREFER THE DRIER 00Z ECMWF OVER THE GFS AT THIS TIME. GFS BRINGS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. && .AVIATION... EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING ACROSS TAF SITES...AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD BRING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO KMSN AND KUES BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z THURSDAY...AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TO KMKE AND KENW. SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR FOG AND IFR TO LIFR STRATUS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z THURSDAY...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. && .MARINE... LOCAL WEB CAMERAS INDICATING THAT WAVE ACTION HAS SUBSIDED SOMEWHAT FROM EARLIER TODAY. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. THUS...WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 21Z. BRISK NORTH WINDS AND HIGH WAVES MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS...AND A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ AVIATION/MARINE...08/WOOD  FXUS63 KMKX 201951 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 251 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2011 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN CLUSTER SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS SETTING UP INTO THE EVENING WITH NOSE OF 250 MILLIBAR JET DRIVING INTO CWA WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR...SURFACE THROUGH 850 MILLIBARS. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECTING TOWARDS SOUTHERN WI. SURFACE MOIST AXIS GETS DRAWN INTO FAR SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING. IN FACT TEMPS WILL LIKELY GET A BOOST THIS EVENING AS SOME OF THE WARMER TEMPS ARRIVE FROM IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MAIN QUESTION IS LOWER LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS. WITH BETTER HEATING FURTHER SOUTH APPEARS SURFACE BASED STORMS OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER ELEVATED CAPE OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL WARRANTS THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE SURFACE LOW WHISKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT THE WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST BRINGING END TO PRECIP. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS KEEP WRAPAROUND STROTOCU SHIELD ACROSS NORTHERN WI. MONDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE HIGH AXIS SLIDES ACROSS WI. COLUMN LOOKS FAIRLY DRY. SOME SATURATION AT AND ABOVE 15K FEET. APPEARS NAM MOS TEMPS TOO COLD. LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS MOS TEMPS. COOLER LAKESIDE AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE. .MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SECOND SHORTWAVE IS EJECTED...MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AS MID/UPPER RIDGE MOVE INTO WISCONSIN. THE SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS AREA TUESDAY. THIS BRINGS 12Z NAM SURFACE LOW INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER/FATHER NORTH INTO FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHWEST IOWA. 12Z NAM INDICATES UPWARD MOTION BECOMING QUITE STRONG AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND TOWARDS SUNRISE OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. MID LEVELS QUICKLY SATURATE WHILE DRY LAYER BELOW 700 MB IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOISTEN. EVAPORATIVE COOLING RESULTS IN A WINDOW OF SNOW POSSIBILITIES ESPECIALLY TOWARD SHEBOYGAN TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN THERE WARM NOSE EVENTUALLY REACHES 2C AROUND 750 MB DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE SLEET. WEAK ELEVATED CAPE MAINLY SOUTH OF AROUND 20 J/KG LIFTING FROM NEAR 750 MB TO 600 MB TUESDAY NIGHT SO ELEVATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. SOME ELEVATED CAPE CONTINUES TUESDAY SOUTH...UP TO 50 J/KG. QPF TOTALS INCREASE DURING THE DAY BUT MAINLY MODERATE AMOUNTS. 24 HOUR TOTALS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 0.25 TO 0.60 ON NAM WITH 0.33 TO 0.85 INCHES ON THE GFS. .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BY WEDNESDAY 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF PUSHES THE SHORTWAVE INTO WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE LOW THEN MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE 12Z NAM/12Z CRAS BUT ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA ON THE GFS/ECMWF. THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AGAIN WITH A BIT MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ON THE GFS/ECMWF...MORE TOWARDS THE ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN BORDER. ALL MODELS KEEPING 540 THICKNESS VALUES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ONLY THE FAR NORTH...MAINLY TOWARDS FOND DU LAC/SHEBOYGAN DOES NAM SOUNDINGS HAVE A SNOW/SLEET POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES/COOL AND THICKNESS VALUES LOWER WITH A MIX/CHANGEOVER OCCURRING OVER FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OFF 12Z NAM. NEW 12Z ECMWF IS THE COLLEST OF THE MODELS. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AROUND 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES WITH THIS EVENT WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WHEN PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN. NAM INDICATES BIGGEST WINTER THREAT WOULD BE TOWARD SHEBOYGAN/FOND DU LAC. HOWEVER GFS IS WARMER ALOFT WITH NO SNOW/SLEET POTENTIAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO COOL AT THE SURFACE...BUT REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. DON'T ANTICIPATE MUCH FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL SINCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE FREEZING. ONLY POTENTIAL AT THIS MOMENT APPEARS FAR NORTHEAST. OVER THE SOUTH ELEVATED CAPE UP TO 232 J/KG IF LIFTED FROM 850 MB. TEMPS NEAR 10Z AT THIS LAYER WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH SMALL HAIL. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM THIS EVENTS WOULD ADD TO RIVER RISES FROM THE RECENT SNOW MELT. BY WEDNESDAY SOUNDINGS COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE NORTH HALF...BUT BY THEN ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THICNESS VALUES INDICATE SNOW SOUTH...BUT FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW ENOUGH OF A WARM LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB FOR MAINLY LIQUID OR A MIX. .LONG TERM... .THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND EXTENDS SOMEWHAT INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW SOME STRATOCUMULUS WOULD LINGER...ESPECIALLY EAST DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MEANWHILE...A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE MINNESOTA AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PREFER THE DRY ECMWF/DGEX OVER THE 12Z GFS. MODELS TRY TO BRING A STRAY WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS WISCONSIN ON THE GFS AND FARTHER SOUTH OVER MISSOURI ON THE ECMWF. .SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS EJECTED TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY...BUT IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH ON THE 00Z ECMWF. BY SUNDAY MODELS TAKE THIS SHORTWAVE TOWARD WISCONSIN. 12Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS. AS A RESULT SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN ON THE 00Z ECMWF BUT THE GFS DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI SPREADING RAIN INTO WISCONSIN. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THIS AND LOOKS MORE LIKE THE 06Z DGEX. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS GRIDS BUT LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF. && .AVIATION... WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM IOWA AND ILLINOIS...PLENTY OF IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS. THE WARM FRONT PROGGD TO LIFT BARELY INTO SOUTHERN WI BEFORE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE CEILINGS/VSBYS. WRAPAROUND LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO STAY ACROSS NORTHERN WI LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVLOPMENT THIS STILL A QUESTION MARK. DECENT DYNAMICS...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THOUGH INSTABILITY NOT GREAT. AT THIS POINT EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STORMS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THESE IN THE TAFS YET AS COVERAGE/TIMING/DURATION UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE... BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS THE LOW PASSES NEARBY THIS EVENING THERE COULD BE A LULL. BUT AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST THE POST-FRONTAL GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT LATER TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...10/COLLAR  FXUS63 KMKX 231835 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 135 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011 .SHORT TERM... .TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL OOZE INTO WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT. THERE WAS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM ACROSS ALL OF MN AND IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THE CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHERN WI WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS. RUC SNDGS AND MODEL RH HINT AT SOME SCATTERING OF THE LOW CLOUDS POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME...BUT SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MORE STRATO CU DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...AROUND 4000 FEET...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AND THICK AS TODAY. BY EARLY SUN MORNING...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THAT ARE SPILLING NORTHWARD FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERNIGHT...AND STAY MAINLY LIGHT ON SUNDAY. A LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. MODELS ARE JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS/INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY THE SHORTWAVE ON THE GFS AND CRAS APPROACHES ONTARIO WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO THE 12Z NAM AND 06Z DGEX WITH A CLOSED LOW STILL OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN. PREFER THIS SLOWER APPROACH SINCE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY TRENDED FASTER ONLY TO SLOW DOWN WITH A NEWER MODEL RUN. A SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES RAPIDLY FROM NORTHERN NEVADA/UTAH AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY. TIMING ON THIS IS ACTUALLY SIMILAR BY WEDNESDAY EVENING ON GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX. EACH HAS A SMALL LEAD SHORTWAVE THAT RAPIDLY PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THE SURFACE...THE LEAD LOW MOVES ACROSS MISSOURI MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN OR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL SPREAD HAS THE GFS TRACK OF THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF/DGEX/12Z NAM BRINGS THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. EVEN SO LOW IS FAIRLY BAGGY AND DOUBT MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL REACH THE SOUTHEAST WITH RAIN COOLED AIR IN THE MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA SOUNDING BELOW 925 MB...UNTIL OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL THIS WOULD HAVE MORE OF A THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. EITHER WAY EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NAM DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED CAPE...SO SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL LIMITED. THEN A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AND MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND EAST...BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD AFFECT SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...ESPECIALLY ON THE ECMWF AND DGEX...MAINLY IN THE COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM... .THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. NOW 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR TO 00Z ECMWF IN KEEPING THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FAIRLY HIGH 850 MB RH THURSDAY THEN DRYING OUT A LITTLE THURSDAY NIGH. THIS WOULD INDICATE COOL CONDITIONS WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY GFS CONTINUE THE FASTER TREND OF BRINGING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION. PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF. .SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. GFS BRINGS NEXT SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA AREA...WHILE ECMWF HAS MORE AMPLITUDE AND HANGS BACK THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST DAY SATURDAY WHILE GFS BRINGS IT IN FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS GRIDS ON THIS. && .AVIATION... MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. EXPECTING BKN CLOUDS TO BECOME SCT SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS WISCONSIN. SCT TO BKN CU POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT ANTICIPATING VFR. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERNIGHT...AND STAY MAINLY LIGHT ON SUNDAY. A LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND 4 PM OR SOON AFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM. NEARLY CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. A LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY MID SUNDAY MORNING. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ644>646. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...13/MRC  FXUS63 KMKX 241839 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 139 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011 .SHORT TERM... .TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER WI TONIGHT. THEN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MO AND CENTRAL IL ON MONDAY...AND ACROSS LAKE MI ON TUE. LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE DENSE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES SOUTHERN WI...AND IT WILL BE OVERCAST ON MONDAY. THE FIRST 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN WI MON AFTERNOON. THE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET...700MB OMEGA AND 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL COME TOGETHER OVER NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI MON AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING THE RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS TRIES TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS INTO ALL OF SOUTHERN WI EARLIER THAN THE NAM...WHICH ONLY BRINGS THE SHOWERS INTO SOUTHWEST WI. IT WILL DEPEND ON THE SFC TRACK AND HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN OVERCOME THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE. FOR NOW...KEPT THE RAIN CHANCE GOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE 18Z-00Z TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 60 INLAND TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE LAKE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY...AS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EASTERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS/INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS AND CRAS CONTINUES TO TREND FASTER THAN THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF. PREFER THE SLOWER MOVEMENT AS TRENDS THAT LAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN CLOSER TO THE SLOWER MODELS. ON TUESDAY GFS/NAM AND ECMWF HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER WISCONSIN OR EASTERN MINNESOTA. ON WEDNESDAY MODELS ALL HAVE COME INTO LINE IN KEEPING THIS UPPER LOW/TROUGH NEAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES RAPIDLY FROM NORTHERN NEVADA/UTAH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE LEAD LOW MOVES ACROSS MISSOURI MONDAY EVENING AND INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN OR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL SPREAD HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE OLDER NAM/ECMWF. NOW THE FARTHER EAST GFS IS ACTUALLY THE FARTHEST WEST...TAKING THE LOW INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY NOON TUESDAY. HOWEVER ALL MODELS HAVE A RATHER BAGGY LOW...AND NONE REALLY PUSH UP THE WARM SECTOR. THEREFORE RAIN COOLED LOW LEVEL AIR IS EXPECTED...AND MODELS STILL HAVE VERY WEAK ELEVATED CAPE. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SMALL HAIL POSSIBILITIES. OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT NAM TAKES TIL EVENING TO ELIMINATE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...AND BY THEN MID LEVELS DRY WITH FAIRLY STABLE LAPSE RATES AROUND 4 TO 5C/KM ABOVE 850 MB AND 7.5 C/KM AT 900 MB. THEN A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS ARKANSAS TUESDAY MORNING...AND MOVES IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY AS IT INTENSIFIES...BEFORE REACHING LAKE ERIE AND LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND EAST...BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD AFFECT SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...ESPECIALLY ON THE ECMWF AND DGEX...MAINLY IN THE COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. .THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. NAM/GFS AND ECMWF ALL TAKE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NORTHEAST...AND MERGE IT WITH THE OLD UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS STILL A LITTLE FARTHER WEST AND SLOWER WITH THE RESULTANT UPPER LOW/TROUGH. SURFACE TROUGH ON THE ECMWF AND DGEX EXTENDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA A LITTLE MORE THAN THE GFS. SOME LIGHT QPF ON ECMWF AND DGEX...WITH ONLY SPOTTY HUNDREDTHS SEEN ON THE GFS. 850 MB RH IS RATHER HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...AND WITH EXPECTED STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD AND COLD UPPER TROUGH...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER COOL. .LONG TERM... .FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF FINALLY PUSH THE UPPER TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST AND MID LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS OVER WISCONSIN. SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN SO EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER DAY. .SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRINGS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. GFS IS QUICKER IN MOVING IT TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY MORNING...WHILE ECMWF IS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. BOTH MODELS HAVE SOUTH SURFACE WINDS AND SHOWERS IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SATURDAY. GFS HAS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN BY SATURDAY EVENING...WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THIS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. SLIGHT PREFERENCE TO THE ECMWF. ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST DAY SATURDAY WHILE GFS BRINGS IT IN FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS GRIDS ON THIS. ON SUNDAY THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE IN DRY WEDGE OF THE OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. && .AVIATION... STUBBORN STRATO CU SHOULD BREAK UP A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER IT WILL STILL BE TOUGH TO SEE THE SUN WITH THE HIGH CIRRUS OVERHEAD. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND NORTHERN LOWER MI MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE RAIN WOULD SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI BY MID MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL. && .MARINE... WE COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. BRISK EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AS THE LOW PASSES BY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WOULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...13/MRC  FXUS63 KMKX 052011 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 311 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND CENTRAL WI AND NORTHEAST IA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. A 500MB TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH...WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SOUTHERN WI. AREAS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A REGION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET GOING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THIS AREA SHOULD STAY FOCUSED TO THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION SEEPING INTO FAR NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA /CWA/ LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN IS ONGOING FROM LAST NIGHT...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH WEAK SFC-925MB CONVERGENCE WITH A TROUGH/FRONT. STORMS WEAKENED DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CONVERGENCE AREA MOVES INTO EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WI AND ENCOUNTERS A LESS STABLE AIRMASS. LINE OF CU DEVELOPED AROUND 17Z ALONG THE SFC CONVERGENCE AREA AND IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI. CIRRUS ERODING AS IT FLOWS INTO SOUTHEAST WI TODAY...SO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO WARM THE AIR AND DESTABILIZE. SFC BASED CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z AT MSN ACCORDING TO THE RUC...GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG 21Z TO 02Z. VERY LITTLE SHEAR TO SPEAK OF...WITH ABOUT 20 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOMEWHAT DISCRETELY...THEN CLUSTERING ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY AS IT CROSSES SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING THE PRECIP SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA ABOUT 3 HOURS EARLIER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE CRAS AND CANADIAN ARE SLOWEST AND DRIEST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...MODELS WEAKEN PRECIP AS IT GETS INTO SOUTHEAST WI LATE THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...TAPERING CHANCE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. SEVERE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SMALL HAIL OR SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE EARLIER STORMS THIS EVENING. WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD SINK SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER BY 12Z...BUT KEPT SCHC LINGERING TSTORMS IN FAR SOUTHEAST FOR MORNING HOURS. SOME MODELS HANG THE FRONT CLOSER TO OUR BORDER THAN OTHERS. .THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH 12Z GFS/NAM AND 00Z ECMWF STILL SIMILAR WITH A EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEAST U.S. MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH WEAK WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY...WEAKENING FRIDAY AS RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. 12Z NAM HAS WEAK MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 500 TO 800 J/KG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOONS. NO CAPE IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH MORE STABLE AND DRY AIR OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. LITTLE IN WAY OF A CAP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.. SUBTLE WEAK TROF AXIS IN MID LEVELS WITH SOME POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. NAM AND GFS POPS ARE AROUND 10 PCT...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. .LONG TERM... .SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH THE MID/UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE EXITS SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO MANITOBA SATURDAY. GFS HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF TOWARDS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARD JAMES BAY/WESTERN HUDSON BAY SUNDAY NIGHT.HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. RESULT IS BOTH MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WHICH LEADS TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE. SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FORMS OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. SOUTH FLOW INCREASES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH/TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SUNDAY MONDAY. MODERATE QPF VALUES ON THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF NEAR THE FRONT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGING IN MORE QPF SUNDAY WITH A TIGHTER THICKNESS GRADIENT WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. .MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 500 MB PATTERN IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON HOW IT HANDLES THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA WITH THE GFS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A SECOND SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER THE FORECAST AREA FLOW IS ZONAL...BUT A BIT FASTER ON THE ECMWF AND A BIT MORE WEST NORTHWEST. BUT BOTH BUILD A WEAK SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY...AND ACROSS WISCONSIN/LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. MAIN DIFFERENCE IS 00Z ECMWF PUSHES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE 12Z GFS HAS IT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL TAKE A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION...SCT CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF WEAK SFC FRONT MAY AFFECT TAF SITES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LWR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...06 VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...13  FXUS63 KMKX 182054 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 453 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011 .VERY SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE SHOWING UP ON THE TWIN CITIES...LACROSSE AND GREEN BAY RADARS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI PRECIP LOOKS TIED TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL WI...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO OHIO ON WEDNESDAY...AND SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CRAS MODEL...AN OUTLIER...HAS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LOW ON WED...BUT MAKES IT INTO A DOUBLE BARREL LOW WITH THE WESTERN PART MOVING UP THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN THU AND THU NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH WIND ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA AS EARLY AS MID WED AFTERNOON. WINDS ALONG THE LAKE WILL BE STRONGEST...AND WINDS WELL INLAND NEAR LONE ROCK WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG...POSSIBLY NOT EVEN IN THE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AREA. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INLAND TO THE LAKESHORE AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AS BEST DEPICTED BY THE REGIONAL CANADIAN MODEL. THESE SHOWERS ARE SUPPORTED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED LIFT FROM UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY BORDER. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST WI WED AFTERNOON...SO BUMPED UP POPS A BIT. .SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. STRENGTH OF WINDS ARE THE KEY IN THIS PERIOD...AND THEN HOW QUICKLY WINDS DIMINISH AND PRECIPITATION EXITS EAST WITH WEAKENING LOW THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW DEEPEST AND MOST COMPACT AT 06Z THURSDAY...986-987MB OVER EASTERN INDIANA...THEN BROADENS AS SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES AS STRONG VORT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET MAX MOVES UP EASTERN FLANK OF CLOSED LOW...WHICH REACHES THE EASTERN LAKES BY 00Z FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC BY 12Z FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST...TO FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN GETS INTO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH KENOSHA...MILWAUKEE AND SHEBOYGAN BUFKIT PROFILES SHOWING 45-50KT WINDS WITHIN 1K FT OF SURFACE FROM 21-22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF TO 30-35 KTS AT KMSN AND BLUE RIVER IN A SHORTER WINDOW FROM 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY. WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND DEEPER MIXING OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE LAKE...HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES LOOK REASONABLE AND AS SUCH WILL BE ISSUING A HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SHEBOYGAN TO KENOSHA COUNTIES...AND FOR WASHINGTON AND WAUKESHA COUNTIES DUE TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF BOTH COUNTIES...FROM 22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY...BUT WILL LEAVE FOR THE NEXT SHIFTS TO DECIPHER LATER GUIDANCE FOR EXACT LOCATION OF ADVISORY VS HIGH WIND WARNING. PERIODS OF SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FAR EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STRONGEST LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE PRECIPITATION...WITH LIKELY POPS WEST TO MADISON AND MONROE... TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN COUNTIES. FORCING SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY EVENING...WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL SLOWLY EASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SLACKENING GRADIENT AS SURFACE LOW CENTER RE-FORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...PRIME RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD FROST OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... WITH AREAS OF FROST EVEN TOWARD THE WARMER LAKE DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW. RIDGING BRINGS A QUIET DAY FRIDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS SUPPORTING MID 50S HIGHS. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM. WEAK WAVES IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH SPOTTY PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY...MAINLY ON THE 00Z ECMWF OVER NRN ILLINOIS. TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AS STRONGER WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WELL REFLECTED IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND WILL BE KEPT. A BREAK MONDAY...THEN CHANCE POPS RETURN TUESDAY WITH BROAD TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE SECTIONS OF THE U.S...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND FORCING FOCUS. WESTERLY FLOW MODERATES TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF MADISON AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SAGS INTO SOUTHWEST WI. MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR OVER NORTHERN WI AND LAKE MICHIGAN IS HOLDING OFF THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS IN MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE MVFR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER KENOSHA AND SOUTHWARD. THERE WILL BE A DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN THE MOIST AND DRY AIR MASSES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. THEN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL SPREAD PRECIP AND INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHEAST WI OVERNIGHT. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL RESULT IN CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR INLAND AND IFR NEAR THE LAKE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SHRA DEVELOPING IN THE EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING...LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE FROM THE BACKING WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS LIKELY UP THE LAKESHORE TO SHEBOYGAN AND NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY WED AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH. MKE/RAC WILL BE ESPECIALLY AFFECTED BY THESE STRONG WINDS SINCE THEY ARE CLOSEST TO THE LAKE...AND MWC/UES/ENW WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOES RAPID DEEPENING OVER TN AND OH VALLEYS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS OHIO...NORTHWEST INDIANA AND LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...RESULTING IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THU MRNG BEFORE LOOSENING. STEADY GALE FORCE WINDS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SURFACE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING FROM WED EVENING THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. LAKE-ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ052-059-060-065-066-071-072. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM  FXUS63 KMKX 262115 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 315 PM CST THU JAN 26 2012 .SHORT TERM... .TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH CLOUDY SKIES WILL HANG ON INTO THE EVENING...WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING AS SHORTWAVE EXITS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A COUPLE MODELS SHOWING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP THIS EVENING TIED WITH SHORTWAVE...BUT OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES GIVEN WEAK LIFT...UNIMPRESSIVE SOUNDINGS...AND VERY WEAK RADAR RETURNS UPSTREAM. SKIES SHOULD START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SNOW WITH NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM LIKELY MOVING INTO AREAS WEST OF MADISON BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME SUN EXPECTED FOR A TIME...WENT MID 30S MOST PLACES...TO UPPER 30S FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE THE SUN WILL SHINE THE LONGEST. FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. MODELS BRING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TIMING OF THE TROUGH IS AGAIN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE AND ALL SPREAD QPF ACROSS ALL OF FORECAST AREA FROM 6PM CST TO MIDNIGHT..WITH VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 12Z CRAS HAS A MUCH WEAKER TROUGH AND IN GENERAL LIGHTER QPF MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH...EXCEPT FOR A SPURIOUS PRECIP MAX OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. NAM PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 0.40 INCHES WITH INGREDIENTS BASED TECHNIQUE SOWING MODERATE Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE IN THE 850 MB AND 700 MB LAYER WITH 2 G/KG PUSHING INTO THE FAR SOUTH PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 6PM FRIDAY AT 700. THE NAM 285K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS UPWARD ISENTROPIC OMEGA OF 3 UBARS/SEC WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OF LESS THAN 10 MB. ALTHOUGH THE BEST LIFT OCCURS BEFORE SATURATION. GFS PAINTS MORE PRECIP EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH DUE TO MORE DYNAMICS/MORE MOISTURE...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM HAS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF. STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE APPEARS RATHER STRONG FOR THE MEAGER QPF. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WHILE A SECOND LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD NORTHEAST IOWA ON THE 12Z GFS AND NAM. ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS AGAIN BEFORE SATURATION...AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE NOT AS LOW. MODELS GENERATE AROUND 0.05 OF QPF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. .LONG TERM... SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z/12Z ECMWF GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. THIS WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY BUT THEN WOULD LIKELY TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE. IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING FAR SOUTH THEN JUST DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES IN 12Z GFS AND 00Z/12Z ECMWF WITH THE ECMWF TAKING A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND QUICKER THAN THE GFS. THIS LEADS TO THICKNESS ADVECTION PATTERNS BEING OUT OF PHASE...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION TIMING DIFFERENCES. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... CONDITIONS STILL RANGING FROM LIFR TO IFR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A FEW MVFR REPORTS...AS STRATUS LINGERS ACROSS SRN WI. CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVE UNTIL THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA AND RETURN THINGS TO VFR. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THEN FRIDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BEFORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROLL IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY WEST OF MADISON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. SNOW THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS NORTHWEST WINDS PICKUP BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS FRIDAY EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING WINDS BEHIND THE LOW LATER IN THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WEST WINDS WILL THEN LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HENTZ  FXUS63 KMKX 102004 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 304 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012 .SHORT TERM... .TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS DECK SUPPORTED BY WEAK INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AROUND 5000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BACK EDGE OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...THEN SOUTH DURING THE EVENING. DOWNWARD MOTION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER IN THE EAST THIS EVENING...BEFORE FINALLY MIXING OUT LATE TONIGHT. MAY SEE AREA OF CLOUDS TRY TO HANG ON NEAR THE LAKE...BUT LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WOULD STAY OFFSHORE. WESTERN END OF ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY BRUSH THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WITHIN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL LINGER UNTIL EARLY EVENING AS WELL. PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD NOT DECOUPLE. CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL TO 28 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OR LOWER...SO WENT WITH A FREEZE WARNING FOR GREEN LAKE TO ROCK COUNTIES AND WEST FROM 06Z TO 14Z WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS IN THE EAST LEFT MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR LOWS TO REACH THAT THRESHOLD...SO LEFT THOSE AREAS OUT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE NEAR THE LAKE BY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S...WITH 50S INLAND PER 925MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND FROM MINNESOTA TO MISSOURI ON THURSDAY. NAM/GFS AND 12Z CRAS ALL TAKES A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE DEPARTING NORTHWEST FLOW. ONLY THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. SOME FROST/FREEZING POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER THE NAM THEN SETS UP A SLIGHT LAND BREEZE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE THERE WILL BE ONE MORE NIGHT WITH A FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. .THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ALL MODELS PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TAKING PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE NAM/ECMWF IN AT BEST REACHING AREAS SOUTHWEST OF MADISON AROUND SUNRISE. ONLY THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SHEBOYGAN AREA DRY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE OTHER MODELS BRINGING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE 850 MB JET BRINGS 10C 850 MB DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS STILL A LITTLE FASTER IN PUSHING A SURFACE LOW INTO MINNESOTA WITH THE NAM/ECMWF AND DEGEX ALL SLOWER AND WEAKER AND IS PREFERED. ELEVATED CAPE OF AROUND 60 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON IF LIFTED FROM 5 THSD FT. PREFER MAINLY RAIN AT THIS POINT WITH LOW THUNDER POTENTIAL. .LONG TERM... .SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BOTH THE 12Z GFS/06Z DGEX AND 00Z ECMWF ESTABLISH A MID/UPPER TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. NORTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS EVENTUALLY ESTABLISH A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR NEW MEXICO. THE 12Z GFS KEEPS THE MAIN MID LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE WEST NEAR FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z DGEX PUSHES THE UPPER LOW A LITTLE FASTER WITH A TROUGH PUSHING TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PREFER THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW ON THE 00Z ECMWF...REACHING FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE 12Z GFS...THAT HAS THE LOW REACHING FAR EASTERN QUEBEC. THE 06Z DGEX IS EVEN SLOWER WITH A WEAKER LOW NEAR THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER. APPEARS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MORE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AT TAF SITES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT MADISON...BEFORE MIXING OUT LATER THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THEN EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE SOME SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP. EASTERN TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR CEILINGS LINGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN SLOWLY SCATTER OUT BY LATER TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...THOUGH THINK MOST OF THESE CLOUDS SHOULD STAY OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH EASTERLY FLOW MAY PUSH THESE MORE INLAND. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET...WITH GUSTS UP TO 27 KNOTS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN VEER NORTH WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THESE WINDS WILL VEER NORTHEAST TO EAST AT THE EASTERN SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. && .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 02Z WEDNESDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE UNTIL SUNSET...WITH THE GUSTS SUBSIDING WITH NIGHTFALL. 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES LINGER TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ046-047- 056-057-062-063-067>069. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HENTZ  FXUS63 KMKX 302102 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 402 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012 SHORT TERM... .TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO WESTERN WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...A WEAK JET STREAK AT 250MB WILL BE POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SKIM JUST TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS FORCING FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...WITH A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND STRETCHING FROM WEST TO EAST AND GOOD Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON HOW MUCH THE BEST FORCING WILL EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT IN PRECIP COVERAGE TOWARDS I-94. .TOMORROW...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WISCONSIN...ALLOWING THE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIP TO CONTINUE. AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN...700 MB LIFT SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL ROTATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THERE IS STILL SOME DISCREPANCY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP WILL REACH TOMORROW...WITH THE GEM...SREF...AND CRAS SHOWING SOME PRECIP AT MKE...BUT THE NAM12 KEEPING MKE DRY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW. 925 MB TEMPS SHOW UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60S IN OUR NORTHWEST...AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 500 MB LOW MOVES ACROSS THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND REACHES LOWER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. THE STRONG 700 MB UPWARD MOTION EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HIGH 700 MB RH EXTENDS WEST INTO THE EASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN AREA...BUT IS RELATIVELY DRY OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. 850 MB RH AROUND 70 PCT AND AT 950 MB RH IS AROUND 50 PCT. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS OHIO AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. NAM/GFS AND ECMWF ALL KEEP THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE HEAVIER RAINS WELL EAST. WILL CONTINUE THE DRIER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND WILL LOWER THEM FROM CURRENT GRIDS. STILL WILL LIKE TO MENTION A SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST...GIVEN THE UPPER LOW LOCATION. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH THE MAIN MID/UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH WISCONSIN IN THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH. MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN SATURDAY. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON SHOWER POTENTIAL WITH RATHER STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 9-10C/KM FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB. THERE APPEARS ENOUGH 850-700 MB MOISTURE FOR THE DIURNAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. LONG TERM... SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. GFS/ECMWF/DGEX ARE ALL VERY SIMILAR IN KEEPING A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN REMAINS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A LARGE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE PLAINS. ON MONDAY A SHORTWAVE ROTATION AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH CLIPS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH A SECOND TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 9.5 C/KM REMAIN SUNDAY...BUT GRADUALLY BECOME MORE STABLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH DRIER MID LEVELS. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVER TIME THIS PATTERN GRADUALLY MOVES EAST ON THE GFS/DGEX WITH THE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWER MVFR CLOUDS CURRENTLY AT MKE AND ENW ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT/TOMORROW...MAINLY AT MSN AND ENW...WHERE THERE IS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP. WINDS HAVE TURNED MORE NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TOWARDS EASTERLY TONIGHT. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP WILL GET TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MEB THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HENTZ  FXUS63 KMKX 011959 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 259 PM CDT MON OCT 1 2012 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM STEADY STRME OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF SE MO/NE AR UPPER LOW. PROGS SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM MN INTO NW IA PROGRESSES EAST THOUGH DAMPENS WITH 700 RH DECREASING. MEANWHILE 500 MILLIBAR SHOWS MAINLY SHEARED/CHANNELIZED VORTICITY WITH MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER STAYING WELL SOUTH AND ANY QPF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH INLAND 925 TEMPS FAIRLY PLEASANT SO STILL EXPECTING SOME LOWER 70S. .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO LOW THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM ARE SIMILAR IN BRINGING A CLOSED LOW STRUCTURE INTO ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE NAM IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS STILL FARTHER EAST WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS DUE TO HAVING MAINLY AN OPEN WAVE STRUCTURE. THE 12Z CRAS IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF INITIALLY BUT THEN PULLS THE PRECIPITATION BACK AS THE MID LEVEL LOW AND PRECIPITATION IS THE FARTHEST WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE NAM/GFS FOR NOW...BUT NOT READY TO DISCOUNT THE 00Z ECMWF. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE NAM/GFS...BUT STILL NOT QUITE AS FAR WEST. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO LOW THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL LIFT THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE OFF TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT REACHES THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM/ECMWF ARE JUST A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS STILL THE SLOWEST MODEL WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY AND MUCH WARMER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY. THE NAM IS MORE OF A CONSENSUS. .LONG TERM... .FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THE GFS/ECMWF/06Z DGEX STILL HAVE A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. WITH THE 12Z GFS HAVING A MORE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z DGEX ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. ALL MODELS HAVE THE FORECAST AREA IN COOLER AIR BUT THE 00Z/12 ECMWF IS ALONE WITH LESS OF AN INTRUSION OF COLD AIR...BUT IT ALSO BRINGS LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS DUE TO A STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS ILLINOIS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD A MORE SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT OF THE DGEX AND IS TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE 06Z DGEX. HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF HAS PUSHED THE PRECIPITATION BACK NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO PREFER THE 06Z DGEX. THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A POTENTIAL FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. .SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH A LITTLE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE ECMWF AND DGEX SHOW A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. WITH THE GFS HAVING THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THE LARGE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AREA WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING. MOISTURE WILL BA LACKING SO THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE GFS IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND PREFER THE DRY ECMWF. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR THIS PERIOD WITH DENSE HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FROM UPPER LOW WELL SOUTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME DECREASE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHIFT NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HENTZ  FXUS63 KMKX 142132 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 332 PM CST WED NOV 14 2012 .TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MAINLY ZONAL WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES. CLOUDS TODAY WERE PRODUCED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH ONE SHORTWAVE. THERE IS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE SOME MORE WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS ALL OF WI THU AFTERNOON. AGAIN...THERE IS ONLY WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION WITH THESE FEATURES. AS A RESULT EXPECT SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TO BECOME MORE DENSE WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER 700 MB RH. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WEAKER WINDS TONIGHT AND A LITTLE HIGHER DURING THE DAY. 925MB TEMPS AROUND 4C SUGGEST MIN TEMPS FROM 28 TO 33 ASSUMING A WEAK TO MODERATE INVERSION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN THE THICKER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...WHICH COULD AFFECT THE MIN TEMP FORECAST. FOR NOW...DROPPED TEMPS QUICKLY IN THE EVENING AND HAD THEM SLOWLY RISE IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY SHOULD REACH 50 TO 53 IN POST PLACES. .THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL JUST BARELY EXTEND INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH. MODELS AGREE THAT WE WILL REMAIN DRY. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AS NVA TAKES OVER...700 MB LIFT/RH DECREASES...AND 850 MB RH DECREASES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MERGES WITH WHAT REMAINS OF THE HIGH CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSING THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY...THEN FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE PERIOD AFTER THAT...WITH A FEW WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED THAT WOULD JUST BRING SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER...MAINLY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF/GFS/GEM 925 MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY WOULD GIVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S RANGE. THE NAM IS SHOWING MORE 925-850 WAA THOUGH...AND THUS HAS HIGHER 925 MB TEMPS. MEANWHILE...THE CRAS IS COOLER. LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM SOLUTION THOUGH. THE NAM IS ALSO A BIT WARMER THAN OTHER MODELS ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MORE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION. .MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM. A STRONGER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE THAN THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF SOME. MEANWHILE...THE GEM LOOKS VERY OVERDONE WITH A MUCH STRONGER CUT OFF LOW STACKED WITH A SURFACE LOW. THE BEST Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS ON TUESDAY...BUT IT ISN/T VERY IMPRESSIVE. THERE IS ALSO A BIT OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...THE GFS HAS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF LOOKS MORE LIKE THAT SOLUTION. THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY LOW LEVELS. PLAN ON MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS FOR AT LEAST THE EVENING. THEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AGAIN ON THURSDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI FROM 12 TO 18Z THU MORNING THROUGH AND THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AGAIN THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. AFTER STEADY SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND NORTHERLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EASTERLY ON FRIDAY. && .MARINE... STEADY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AND A DECENT FETCH WERE BUILDING WAVES UP TO 5 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO SHEBOYGAN THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND VEER SOUTHWEST...WAVES WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO SUBSIDE. WILL MAINTAIN THE ORIGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY END TIME OF 10Z/4AM TONIGHT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LMZ643. && $$ TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEB  FXUS63 KMKX 092209 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 409 PM CST WED JAN 9 2013 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE CLEAR SKIES WERE ANTICIPATED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO OUR SOUTH. THE CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH WAA WILL ACT TO KEEP OUR LOWS FROM GETTING TOO LOW. AT 925 MB...TEMPS GO FROM A RANGE OF ABOUT -2C TO 3C AT 00Z TO ABOUT 2C TO 6C BY 06Z. RIGHT NOW...THE LAYER OF SURFACE MOISTURE LOOKS TOO SHALLOW FOR FOG TONIGHT...BUT COULD BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE NAM80 HAS ACTUALLY SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP THOUGH. MEANWHILE...THE NAM12 AND CRAS SHOW THE PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z. TRENDED TOWARDS THE LATER ARRIVAL AS IT SEEMS TO BE THE CONSENSUS AND THE BETTER FORCING DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER. THE BEST PVA FROM THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE EVENING. 925 TO 850 MB WAA ALSO LOOKS BETTER LATER. HOWEVER...600 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS COULD HELP OUT PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING. PUT IN A WARMER MODEL FOR TOMORROW AS MOST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY LOWER THAN THE OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. DESPITE CLOUDS...THINKING INCREASING WAA WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES A BIT. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE A NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM ERN OK TO THE IL/IN BORDER BY 12Z FRI WHILE THE SFC TROUGH TRACKS INTO SRN WI. LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA THU EVENING ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LGT-MDT RAINFALL. PWS WILL INCREASE TO 1 INCH WITH A QPF CONSENSUS RANGING FROM 0.5 INCHES IN THE FAR WRN CWA TO NEARLY 0.70 INCHES IN THE EAST. RAIN WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE SPOTTY AFTER 09Z ALONG WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE PASSING SFC TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADVECTION FOG ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF MKE THAT STILL HAVE A SNOW COVER. DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRI AM AND WILL INCLUDE IN FORECAST AND HWO. SSWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FOR FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO NE MN BY 12Z SAT. HIGH TEMPS FOR FRI ARE CHALLENGING SINCE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING FRI AFTERNOON BUT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN THE ENTIRE DAY. WENT WITH MID 40S OVER THE EXPECTED SNOW COVER AREAS WITH LOWER 50S IN FAR SE WI. SWLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION TO MAINTAIN MILD TEMPS FOR SAT NT ALTHOUGH COLD FROPA WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA EARLY SAT. COLD FROPA AND COLD ADVECTION TO PREVAIL FOR SAT WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD REMAIN UNDER RECORD HIGH TEMPS. .LONG TERM... SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SAT NT AND SUN DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SRN WI BEING ON THE WRN EDGE OF A PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF WI FOR MON AND TUE. SWLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP FOR TUE NT AND WED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EWD ACROSS FAR SRN CANADA. A POLAR AIRMASS WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MID AFTERNOON. LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE AREA AND DAY TIME MIXING DIMINISHES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OFF OF THE LOW HAVE SPREAD INTO THE AREA SOONER THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER...STILL THINKING THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON TOMORROW...WHEN PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST...AT MSN. EXPECTING GUSTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE LOW APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. && .MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW OVER JAMES BAY CANADA SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DIMINISH. THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THEN SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE NEARSHORE FOR LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MEB THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GEHRING  FXUS63 KMKX 101635 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1035 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013 .UPDATE... HAVE PUSHED BACK PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL 21Z IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST...AND ABOUT 23Z IN MILWAUKEE AND MADISON. THE NAM12...GEM...SREF...CRAS SHOW LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION BEFORE 21Z. THE HRRR EVEN KEEPS THE FAR SOUTHWEST DRY UNTIL 22Z AND THE IN HOUSE WRF THROUGH 00Z. AN ENSEMBLE OF HI RES MODELS...SPC SSEO...EVEN SHOWS PRECIP STAYING SOUTH OF A MADISON TO LAKE GENEVA LINE THROUGH 00Z AND THEN EVERYONE SEEING PRECIPITATION BY 03Z...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS TO SEE IF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL NEEDS TO BE DELAYED EVEN MORE. A LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 37 IN KENOSHA AND 23 IN LONE ROCK AND 24 IN SHEBOYGAN. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE DOING A GREAT JOB OF CAPTURING THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. MAY HAVE TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...TEMPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM KICKER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ON THE WEST COAST WILL TAKE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER SW TEXAS ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS...OPEN IT AND LIFT IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE AS UPPER JET BUCKLES NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S./SRN CANADA IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN TROUGH. FIRST SURGE OF MID-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE...ENHANCED BY 500-300MB DIFF VORT ADVECTION WITH SHEARED VORTICITY IN AXIS OF SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH...LIFTS ACROSS SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OF 100 MB OR MORE ON FORECAST 280K AND 285K SURFACES UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON SUPPORT LACK OF MOISTURE BELOW 10K FT ON CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT NEEDS TO SATURATE BEFORE ANY PRECIP REACHES THE GROUND. SATURATION WILL BE RAPID AROUND/AFTER 21Z. WILL TREND ONSET OF PCPN FROM SW TO NE WITH LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. PW/S RAPIDLY JUMPING FROM ABOUT 0.25 INCH LATE MORNING TO A MAX AROUND 1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT...OR 350-400 PCT OF NORMAL...AS GULF MOISTURE FLOWS NWD AHEAD OF SURFACE WAVE. MAX FORCING/OMEGA BRINGS HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE SOUTH AROUND 06Z...AND 09Z TO THE NORTHEAST CWA WITH SOME TALL...SKINNY ELEVATED CAPE PROFILES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION THUNDER...BUT A RUMBLE OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH SPEED OF 500 MB TROUGH AND TRACK OF VORT MAX IN BASE OF TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE LEADS TO DIFFERING PLACEMENT OF AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. WILL USE A BLEND OF MODEL QPF AMOUNTS WHICH WILL BRING AROUND 1/2 INCH TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UP TO 3/4 INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH WITH THE BRIEF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN CONTINUING TO WIND DOWN AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. KEPT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE MORNING...WITH THINGS TURNING DRY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY BE SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD...WITH EXPECTED HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW RECORD VALUES. KEPT MENTION OF FOG FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. TOUGH TO KNOW EXACTLY HOW MUCH FOG THERE WILL BE IN THE EAST...ALL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS LEFT BY THEN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE FOG IS DENSE FOR A WHILE...ESPECIALLY AREAS FARTHER WEST WHERE THE SNOW IS DEEPER AND WILL HOLD ON LONGER. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...SO KIND OF A PAIN FIGURING OUT FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS AND SATURDAY HIGHS...AS A CHANGE IN FRONT TIMING WILL IMPACT THESE QUITE A BIT. EITHER WAY THOUGH...WILL EVENTUALLY SEE TEMPS HEAD DOWNWARD SOMETIME SATURDAY MORNING...LIKELY CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN CHILLIER. KEPT CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BRUSH THE AREA. BEST CHANCE LOOKS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A MILWAUKEE TO JANESVILLE LINE. UNLESS THIS SYSTEM COMES FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...WOULD ONLY SEE MAYBE UP TO AN INCH TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER. SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKS DRY THEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH NEAR TO JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. COULD SEE HIGHS WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH CLOUDS THICKENING/LOWERING...THEN CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY WITH SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL SETTLE IN AT ALL TAF SITES BY 03Z FRIDAY AND STAY DOWN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EVEN UNTIL 18Z FRI AT KMKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL THE PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID. MARINE... SOUTHEAST WINDS STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWEST DECREASE FOR A TIME FRIDAY AS WEAKENING SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH REGION...THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARD REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY...THOUGH IT MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED IF WAVES TO NOT SUBSIDE AS EXPECTED BEFORE WINDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...MEB/SM TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV  FXUS63 KMKX 042143 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 343 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014 .SHORT TERM... .TODAY AND TONIGHT... LIGHT RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN WI ON MOSAIC AND LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY ARE INDICATIVE OF LOWER CLOUDS SPREADING IN. IT IS TAKING A WHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN...BUT ROCKFORD REPORTED LIGHT SNOW IN THE 21Z HOUR...SO THE SNOW IS ON ITS WAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A CLASSIC DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST...COMPLETE WITH DRY SLOT AND DEFORMATION ZONE. THE SNOW IS ON THE FAVORED SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WRAP-AROUND REGION...PER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THIS SYSTEM...OR THE MAIN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY...WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI WHEN THE AREA OF HIGHER UPPER DIVERGENCE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVE IN...BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM. PEAK VALUES WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST WI RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS IS WHEN A DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER IOWA/MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN WI LANDS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 200KT STRENGTHENING UPPER JET. IN ADDITION...MID-LAYER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL CROSS SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT WITH A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. SNOW OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN WI WILL OCCUR FROM LATE EVENING UNTIL EARLY MORNING...ABOUT A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 3.5 INCHES VARYING FROM LESS NORTH TO MOST SOUTH TOWARD THE IL BORDER. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME BROAD WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED BANDS TO SET UP WITHIN THESE DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETICAL ZONES SOMEWHERE IN THE MKX FORECAST AREA...CAUSING ENHANCED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH HIGHER THAN FORECAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS THIS SYSTEM UNFOLDS. IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC SNOW...THERE SHOULD BE SOME ENHANCEMENT TO SNOW AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST WI DUE TO THE LAKE INFLUENCE AND A FAVORABLE NORTHEAST FETCH. DELTA-T OVERNIGHT INCREASES TO 15-16 DEGREES WITH INVERSION HEIGHT INCREASING TO AROUND 4K FEET. WIND DIRECTION SLOWLY BACKS LATE TONIGHT AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z RESULTING IN MODERATE OMEGA AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHARTS INDICATE MODERATE SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION TO THE MAIN SYSTEM SNOW. THE ADVISORY STILL LOOKS REASONABLE WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 5.5 INCH RANGE. THE UNCERTAIN AREA WOULD BE SOUTHEAST WALWORTH COUNTY...THEY ARE NOT IN THE ADVISORY BUT COULD SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO BUMP UP THEIR SNOWFALL TOTALS. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE NOON HOUR. THIS IS LONGER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS BECAUSE MOST MODELS ARE NOW HANGING ON TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WI LONGER. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN FALL WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE DAY. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY. THE 850/700 MB LAYERS STILL HAVE FAIRLY HIGH RH...THEN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE 850/700 MB RH DECREASES. 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION DROPS 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO -19. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR ANOTHER COLD PERIOD. RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS NOT TOO FAVORABLE AS SURFACE WINDS STAY UP...AND WITH CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WINDS MAY NOT DECOUPLE. HOWEVER WIND CHILLS MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. .FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MAINLY ZONAL FRIDAY AND BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S. THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX ARE NOT AS STRONG WITH THE TROUGH AND IS NOW MORE NORTH THEN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS IS CLOSER THAN THE PREVIOUS SUNDAY CRAS RUN FOR THIS PERIOD. THE GFS/DGEX AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS SPREADS LIGHT SNOW INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY DUE TO THE BROADER AND MORE NORTH MID/UPPER TROUGH. .LONG TERM... .SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THE 12 GFS BRINGS A MORE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY...THAT REACHES THE NORTHEAST U.S. ON MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND DGEX SIMILAR WITH A SEPARATE NORTH STREAM AND SECOND STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THE 12Z GFS IS STILL THE FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...WITH A LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z DGEX HAS THE MAIN LOW OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. WITH A WEAKER TROUGH EXTENDING BACK NORTH. THE GFS BRINGS LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z DGEX ARE DRY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY...CONTINUING THE COLD TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH IS STILL OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND DGEX PUSH IT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... SOON && .MARINE... SOON && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ066-071-072. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HENTZ