FXUS63 KFGF 080939 AFDFGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 339 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013 .SHORT TERM... MANY CHALLENGES THIS FCST PERIOD. FIRST OFF...CLOUD COVER TODAY. AREAS OF CLEAR SKY IN EASTERN FCST AREA AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG FORMING. ALSO HAVE AERAS OF FOG THAT FORMED UNDERNEATH A CLEAR HOLE EARLIER IN THE EVENING IN THE COOPESTOWN-VALLEY CITY AREAS. SO WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG TIL 16Z. LOW STRATUS COVERS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND ERN ND AND IS TRYING TO SPREAD EAST. FOR TODAY...RAP MODEL HANGS MOISTURE AROUND IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER MOST OF THE DAY...BUT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND INCREASES DURING THE DAY TO 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE VALLEY...BUT DIRECTION NOT FAVORABLE FOR BIG BURNOFF OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IF LOW CLOUDS DID BURN OFF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE SO MOSTLY CLOUDY IDEA ALL BUT FAR EAST SEEMS GOOD TODAY. TEMPS WILL WARM SLOWLY TODAY AND IDEA OF LOW TO MID 20S STILL OK WITH SOME UPPER 20S OR AROUND 30 FAR SOUTHWEST IN GWINNER AREA DUE TO DOWNSLOPING OFF SISSESTON HILLS. WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE THRU LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE ERN FCST AREA SATURDAY. SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY ESP INTO ERN ND. WILL HANG ON TO CLOUDS AND VERY LOW CHC OF PRECIP SATURDAY IN BDE-BJI-ADC AREAS PER PREV FCST AND GFS MODEL IDEA OF SOME SATURATION AND LIGHT QPF. LOTS OF QUESTIONS REGARDING UPCOMING SYSTEM. STILL QUITE THE MODEL SPREAD AS 00Z-06Z NAM AND ITS LIKE MODELS SUCH AS THE SREF AND CRAS MODEL VIA UW-MADISON MAINTAIN A FARTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST TRACK OF SFC LOW TO JUST NORTHWEST OF SIOUX FALLS THEN TOWARD ST CLOUD WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH AND A BIG AREA OF SNOW ALL THE WAY BACK TO WRN ND AND INTO MANITOBA. 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT AND USED FOR THIS FCST AND PREFERRED BY HPC. IDEA IS SFC LOW TO BE IN FAR NW IOWA 18Z SUN THEN TRACK TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN MN 00Z MON. UPPER LOW A BIT FARTHER NORTHWEST FAVORS MAIN DEF ZONE SNOW FROM ERN SD INTO FAR SE ND INTO NORTHEASTERN MN. HPC SNOWFALL GRAPHIC HAS 6 INCH LINE ROX-GFK-JMS WITH 10-12 IN FAR SE ND AND WCNTRL MN. TIMING OF SNOW HAS IT REACHING SE ND JUST PAST 06Z SPREAD AND REACHING NE ND/NW MN NR 12Z SUN. NOTED THAT 00Z UKMET AND 00Z GEM REMAIN A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND LESS WRAPPED UP WITH PRECIP AND WOULD ONLY GIVE PRECIP TO FAR SE ND INTO MN AND LEAVE MOST OF NORTHEASTERN ND WITH WAY LESS PRECIP. COORD WITH BIS/DLH LEAD TO ISSUANCE OF WINTER STORM WATCHES STARTING LATE NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A ROX-GFK-JMS LINE. FOR GFS/ECMWF SOLNS...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KTS SUSTAINED IN THE VALLEY LATE SUN AFTN-NIGHT. AFTER COORD DID INCREASE WIND SPEEDS IN GRIDDS OVER ALL BLEND VALUES WHICH SEEMED A BIT LOW. WILL MENTION BLIZZARD CONDITIONS PSBL BUT WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY YET IN TRACK OF STORM AND WIND FIELD HESISTANT TO GO BLIZZARD WATCH OFF THE BAT. .LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)... THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER WITHIN BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX DURING THE DAY...BUT 925 MB WINDS AROUND 25-30 KTS AND DECENT MIXING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING AT LEAST. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...SO TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE FOR MONDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE AIR MASS WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...SUPPORTING TEMPS NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...TEMPS MAY BE COOLER IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. 00Z MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY SUPPORTING LOW POPS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS RANGE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL VARIABILITY. && .AVIATION... QUITE CHALLENGING TO TIME IF OR WHEN THE LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF. FOR BEMIDJI THINK BETTER CHC FOR THE LOWER CLOUDS/FOG TO BURN OFF TO GIVE SOME SUN TODAY AS JUST ENOUGH DRIER AIR MAY REMAIN IN THAT REGION THIS AFTN. FOR THE REST OF THE REGION IN THE FAR NW MN AND ERN ND WILL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE...THOUGH WOULD EXPECT IFR CIGS TO IMPROVE MODESTLY TO LOW END MVFR THIS AFTN. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME CLEARING HOLES DEVELOP HOWEVER. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ESP IN THE VALLEY. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NDZ038-039-049-052-053. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NDZ027-029-030. MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MNZ003-024-027>032-040. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MNZ001-002-005>009-013>017-022-023. && $$ RIDDLE/MAKOWSKI