FXUS66 KEKA 232213 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 213 PM PST TUE NOV 23 2010 .SYNOPSIS...BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS COLD CANADIAN AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO FRI BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. && .DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE HOW COLD TEMPS WILL FALL AS A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. IR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND HI CLOUDS ADVECTING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND SIMPLE INTERPOLATION ADVECTS THESE CLOUDS OVER NW CA BY AROUND 08Z. MODELS AND CRAS IMAGERY SUPPORT THIS WITH INCREASING 1000-500MB RH AND SKY COVER ALONG THE COAST BY 06Z. THE KEY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND THE COOLING AHEAD OF IT/S ARRIVAL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING SKY COVER...ELECTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT HEADLINES THIS AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAINLY OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY WED MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO FRI AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE PAC NW. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF THE GULF OF AK FRI WITH PRECIP CHCS INCREASING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN AS MAJORITY OF PRECIP ENDS WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4500 FT FRI DROPPING TO 2000 FT SAT. TROUGH SHIFTS E AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUN INTO MON BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE W COAST NEXT TUE. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH 02Z. VALLEY FOG MAY INHIBIT VSBYS...WITH A HINT OF MVFR FOG AT KUKI AFT 09Z. FROST WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT...EVEN AT COASTAL SITES. JCA && .MARINE...NW SWELL OF 10-12 FT AT 11 SEC WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY OVERNIGHT. SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE SWELL FALLS BELOW 8 FT BY WED AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THU BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS WILL RAMP UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT MORNING. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS...BUT TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR. ANOTHER LARGE SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. JCA && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PST WED FOR CAZ001-002. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY PZZ455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY PZZ450-470-475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA  FXUS66 KEKA 240703 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 1113 PM PST TUE NOV 23 2010 .SYNOPSIS...BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS COLD CANADIAN AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO FRI BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. && .UPDATE...TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN ZONE 001. && .PREV DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE HOW COLD TEMPS WILL FALL AS A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. IR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND HI CLOUDS ADVECTING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND SIMPLE INTERPOLATION ADVECTS THESE CLOUDS OVER NW CA BY AROUND 08Z. MODELS AND CRAS IMAGERY SUPPORT THIS WITH INCREASING 1000-500MB RH AND SKY COVER ALONG THE COAST BY 06Z. THE KEY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND THE COOLING AHEAD OF IT/S ARRIVAL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING SKY COVER...ELECTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT HEADLINES THIS AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAINLY OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY WED MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO FRI AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE PAC NW. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF THE GULF OF AK FRI WITH PRECIP CHCS INCREASING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN AS MAJORITY OF PRECIP ENDS WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4500 FT FRI DROPPING TO 2000 FT SAT. TROUGH SHIFTS E AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUN INTO MON BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE W COAST NEXT TUE. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH 02Z. VALLEY FOG MAY INHIBIT VSBYS...WITH A HINT OF MVFR FOG AT KUKI AFT 09Z. FROST WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT...EVEN AT COASTAL SITES. JCA && .MARINE...NW SWELL OF 10-12 FT AT 11 SEC WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY OVERNIGHT. SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE SWELL FALLS BELOW 8 FT BY WED AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THU BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS WILL RAMP UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT MORNING. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS...BUT TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR. ANOTHER LARGE SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. JCA && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PST WED FOR CAZ001-002. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY PZZ455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY PZZ450-470-475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA  FXUS66 KEKA 262159 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 300 PM PDT SUN JUN 26 2011 .SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. && .DISCUSSION...FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO AN APPROACHING STRONG UPPER LOW POISED TO REACH THE COAST ON TUESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES 130W FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND A FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT STREAM OF NEAR 1INCH PWAT INTO THE CWA. THE LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHWEST CA THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL SIERRA BY WED. KEPT SHOWERS AND TSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE TUE BUT FEEL BEST CHANCE FOR NW CA WILL BE MON AFT THROUGH MON NIGHT BEFORE ENERGY CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY CRAS SIMULATED IR WHICH DEPICTS SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND SPC'S PERFECT PROG GUIDANCE FOCUSED OVER THE YOLLA BOLLYS LATE MON. BUFKIT...ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...DOES SHOW SOME BRIEF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LASTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS TRINITY COUNTY BUT EVEN IF STORMS FORM MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW APPEARS TO REMAIN STRONG (25-35 KT) AND WILL PUSH ANY CELLS RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THE MID TO UPPER WINDS MAY BE EVEN TO STRONG...PERHAPS SHEARING ANY VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH INITIAL LIGHTING MAY BE DRY STORMS WILL BECOME WET THROUGH TUESDAY AND GIVEN CURRENT FUEL CONDITIONS WHICH ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL IN TERMS OF ERC VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LIVE FUEL MOISTURE...LARGE AND RAPID FIRE GROWTH IS NOT ANTICIPATED...DESPITE NEARING JULY. TUESDAY THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF...HOWEVER KEPT POPS ON THE HIGH END BUT TRIMMED QPF DOWN A BIT. STORMS TOTALS STILL AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS WITH UP TO A HALF IN POSSIBLE IN FAVORED AREAS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS INLAND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...DIMINISHING CHANCES INTO WED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIODS WITH TUESDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY. THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECENT RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON BY NEXT WEEKEND. TONKIN && .AVIATION...VFR DOMINATES THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NW CALIFORNIA TODAY. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS CEC WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN MUCH OF THE DAY. IT HAS ONLY BEEN IN THE AFTERNOON THAT CEC HAS MADE IT INTO VFR. VFR WILL NOT BE LONG LIVED ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, AS CEILINGS WILL BE FALLING INTO IFR BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODELS DO INDICATE VSBY FALLING DEEP INTO IFR AS WELL, WHICH SHOULD NOT BE A STRETCH. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR CEC AND ACV WILL BE IF THEY END UP IN LIFR. AT THIS POINT, DO NOT THINK THAT WILL HAPPEN AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER. OVERNIGHT, THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN IF THE OBS BEGIN TO TREND THAT WAY. UKI AND OTHER INLAND LOCATION WILL REMAIN VFR AND ONLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A VERY HIGH SCT DECK WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING IN. BFG && .MARINE...SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, DROPPING BY ABOUT 50 PERCENT. YESTERDAY AFTERNOON SEAS WERE IN THE 6 FT RANGE AND THIS AFTERNOON THEY ARE IN THE 3 FT RANGE. BUOYS N OF THE CAPE ARE RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 FT WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS AT THE CAPE MENDOCINO WAVE RIDER BUOY. WINDS ARE GUSTY AROUND THE CAPE THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE LOCALLY HIGHER SHORT PERIOD SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE MENDOCINO. WITH A LACK OF OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WATERS S OF CAPE MENDOCINO, CAN REALLY ONLY GO OFF OF MODEL DATA. WINDS AT POINT ARENA LIGHTHOUSE HAVE BEEN RUNNING IN THE MID TEENS. THIS IS UP AT ELEVATIONS THOUGH. WINDS AT THE POINT ARENA DOCK ON THE OTHER HAND, HAVE BEEN IN THE SUB 10 KT REALM. SHELTER COVE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN MUCH THE SAME AS THE THOSE OF THE POINT ARENA DOCK. BUOY 46014 NNW OF POINT ARENA SHOULD BE BACK IN SERVICE SOMETIME IN JULY. IN THE MEANTIME, MODELS AND ASCAT IT IS. THE 19Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF 20 KT WINDS IN THE SRN OUTER WATERS. SO MODELS LOOK TO BE PRETTY GOOD AT THIS POINT. S SWELL WILL BE OF NOTE IN THE OUTER WATERS AND S OF THE CAPE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RUN IN THE 3 FT RANGE WITH PERIODS SHOWING AROUND 14 TO 16 SECONDS. BEWARE OF POTENTIAL SHOALING HAZARDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DUE TO A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTING TO THE E AND AN UPPER LOW MOVING S FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A FRONT INTO THE AREA, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE S AND SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MON. THIS WILL NOT BE A POTENT FRONT IN TERMS OF WINDS AND SEAS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TOO. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND THEN TO THE N AND INCREASE BY WEEKS END. AT THAT POINT WE WILL BE LOOK AT ANOTHER BOUT OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. BFG && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA  FXUS66 KEKA 042141 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 230 PM PDT MON JUL 4 2011 .SYNOPSIS...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS FINALLY GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. INTERIOR AREAS WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY WITH A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN ON WED AND THU. && .DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE. LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND WARM OVER THE CWA AS COASTAL LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT RETURN UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT PROMOTING GOOD FIREWORKS VIEWING. NEXT WEATHER CHALLENGE IS FOCUSED ON THE MID WEEK PERIOD WHERE AN INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH. AS OUTLINED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION A COUPLE OF KEY INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR (AT A MINIMUM) ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST MODELS BRING SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD UP THE VALLEY AND INTO THE CWA BEGINNING TUE BUT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE FROM THE WEST IS TIMED WELL WITH AFTERNOON HEATING ON WED. WITH SURFACE TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO TERRAIN INDUCED CUMULUS. STANDARD CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITY IN THE FORECAST. DID HOWEVER REDUCE COVERAGE BACK TO MAINLY THE EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE VERY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW. TO SEE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME...WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE MOISTURE SOURCE FROM THE PACIFIC WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY OVER THE EPAC BUT THAT IS NOT THE CASE THIS TIME. BELIEVE MOST FAVORABLE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN EAST (SIERRA...WARNERS). AT THIS TIME CRAS IR CONFIRMS THIS WITH MOST OF ITS COLDER CONVECTIVE IR PIXELS OVER THE CENTRAL NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SIERRA. ALSO, AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE FOR THIS AREA...THE STUBBORN MID LEVEL CAP. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH MORE STABILITY WESTWARD...AND THIS STILL MAY BE UNDERDONE. NONETHELESS FEEL 10-15% CHANCE LEADING TO ISOLATED TSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN SEEMS APPROPRIATE FOR WED AND PERHAPS THU. GIVEN ISOLATED COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING LARGE FIRE GROWTH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS FUELS ARE LIKELY STILL FEELING THE EFFECTS OF LAST WEEKS ABUNDANT RAINFALL. THE LATEST ERC AND LIVE FUEL MOISTURE WILL STILL ABOVE AVERAGE AND THAT WAS BEFORE THE RAINFALL..THUS...STILL A FEW WEEKS AWAY FROM ANY WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS DUE TO LIGHTING OR WIND/RH. SEASONAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUBTLE FLUCTUATIONS IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION. ALONG THE COAST LIGHT ONSHORE WIND DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT AND GRADUALLY DEEPENING MARINE LAYER SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME AFTERNOON CLEARING. TONKIN && .AVIATION...STRATUS CLOUD DECK REFORMED OVERNIGHT ALONG MOST OF THE REDWOOD COAST AND ALONG THE MENDOCINO COAST SOUTH OF WESTPORT...WITH CIGS FALLING TO 200-300 FEET AND VSBY DOWN TO 1 1/2 SM. AS OF 1900 UTC THE LAYER IS RECEDING TOWARD THE COAST AND EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE BEACHES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING N WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WHILE THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY REFORM AFTER MIDNIGHT...IT WILL BE MUCH LESS EXTENSIVE WITH CIGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR/SOUTH OF ACV TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF FORT BRAGG. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN CLEAR. SMITH && .MARINE...CONTINUED ONGOING FORECAST FOR GALES OVER THE OUTER WATERS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 KT BY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTS TO 35 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING FRIDAY. THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS WITHIN 3-5 NM OFF THE BEACHES IN THE MORNING HOURS...INCREASING TO SCA IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. STRONGER WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEAR CAPE MENDOCINO. THE SEA STATE WILL BE DOMINATED BY SHORT PERIOD COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 10 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND UP TO 15 FEET OFFSHORE AT AROUND 8 TO 9 SECONDS. MODELS INDICATE WINDS DECREASING LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SMITH && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY PZZ450-455. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY PZZ470-475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA  FXUS66 KEKA 141022 CCA AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 323 AM PDT THU JUL 14 2011 .SYNOPSIS...A STUBBORN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHILE A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF TRINITY COUNTY. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST. && .DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BRING BELOW NORMAL INLAND TEMPERATURES AND ONSHORE FLOW. SINCE THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH WEEKEND ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. BOUTS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY. UPPED THE POPS AND TSTORM COVERAGE FOR FRIDAY AND FRI NIGHT BASED ON A MORE FAVORABLE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE AND STRONGER UPPER DIVERGENCE AS NOTED BY THE GFS. ALTHOUGH THE STANDARD CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS OR MOISTURE DO NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE OR EVEN MUCH DIFFERENT FROM WHAT WE'VE SEEN LATELY IF MODELS ARE CORRECT IN ADJUSTING THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TSTORMS COULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS BELIEVE NIGHTTIME TSTORM ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE MAY BE SUSTAINED LATE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST CRAS IR IMAGERY WITH CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT MORNING. THERE IS SLIM CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT DIDNT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO ADD TO THE FORECAST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. ALONG THE COAST LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT AND MORNING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF AND GFS STILL ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. THE GFS RETROGRADES THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST SLIGHTLY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH OVER US...BUT PUSHES IT NORTH RAISING THE HEIGHTS OVER US. EITHER WAY WARMER INLAND TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AND CONVECTION IS NOT LIKELY. ALONG THE COAST LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT AND MORNING WITH CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO THE COAST. JT/MKK && .AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY FILLING IN OVER HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES...ALONG WITH A PATCHES OVER MENDOCINO COUNTY. DECKS WERE NEAR 2500 FT AT KCEC AND KACV BUT LOWER CLOUD LAYERS SHOULD FORM BY DAYBREAK WITH PERHAPS A FEW PATCHES OF 1SM IN MISTY FOG. THE BULK OF LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT WITH HEATING AND MIXING BY LATE MORNING...BUT A FEW AREAS OF IFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEARBY THE COASTAL HILLS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TIMING AND EXTENT OF STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IS MOST UNCERTAIN AS THE FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE AND THE MARINE LAYER MODERATELY DEEP WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS IN THE STACK. && .MARINE...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE SEA STATE WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL MIXING WITH A NORTHWESTERLY SHORT PERIOD FRESH SWELL. NORTH WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH ALOFT WEAKENS AND STRONGER GRADIENTS DEVELOP. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV  FXUS66 KEKA 311541 AAA AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA...UPDATE 840 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011 .SYNOPSIS...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST TODAY. ELSEWHERE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. && .MORNING UPDATE...AN UPDATE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF TRINITY COUNTY. MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD CAPE, -LI'S, AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, WHICH CAN ALL LEAD TO POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE 12Z NAM IS SHOWING INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL, AND THE CRAS INFRARED FORECAST PRODUCT IS INDICATING GREAT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. NOTHING MAJOR WAS ADDED, SIMPLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER THE YOLLA BOLLAS AND TRINITY ALPS. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH FORK MTN. ANY CONVECTION THAT GETS GOING WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOOKING DOWN THE ROAD A HAIR, MAY BE INCLUDING TSTMS FOR MON AFTERNOON AS WELL. BFG .DISCUSSION...THE STRATUS PUSHED NORTH LAST NIGHT AND IS NOW UP TO THE OREGON-CALIFORNIA BORDER AS OF 4 AM. ADDITIONALLY LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH HAVE COMBINED WITH THE STRATUS NEAR THE COAST TO RESULT IN CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL CURRENTLY WITH BUOY 27 SHOWING WEAK SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BROOKINGS OREGON AND CRESCENT CITY CALM. ADDITIONALLY A RIDGE ALOFT IS BUILDING OVER THE AREA AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ALL OF THESE COMBINE TO SUGGEST IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THE STRATUS TO COMPLETELY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTATIONS OF CONDITIONS BEING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND THE STRATUS SURGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN FOR MONDAY. OTHERWISE CONVECTION RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION INLAND LOOKS LESS LIKELY TODAY AS WEAK RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE CWA. CONSIDERING THERE WERE NO SHOWERS SATURDAY...A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED. PROBABILITIES INCREASE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA...BUT NOTHING STANDS OUT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ANY GREATER THEN WHAT HAS BEEN INDICATED THE LAST FEW DAYS. THUS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WITH POPS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT. MED TO LONG RANGE...THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA WILL SLOW TO A NEAR STALL OVER THE W COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK, THEN LIMP ACROSS THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK. THE COASTAL MARINE LAYER WILL THUS SLOWLY DEEPEN THROUGH TROUGH PASSAGE, BRINGING MORE INLAND INTRUSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. FOR THE INLAND REGIONS OF NW CALIFORNIA, TEMPS WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES ALONG WITH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL BRING SOME MORE CU BUILDING ON TUE THROUGH WED AFTERNOONS, BUT NO TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT IN THE MODELS. IF MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHOW IN THE MODELS, THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. && .AVIATION...NAM12 CROSS SECTION SHOWS COASTAL MARINE LAYER AT ABOUT 1500 FT DEPTH THIS MORNING WITH FOG AND STRATUS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ALONG THE ENTIRE MENDO AND REDWOOD COASTS..HOWEVER BOTH WRF AND NAM12 SHOW KACV AND KCEC BREAKING OUT BY 18Z TODAY. MONDAY MAY SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. STRATUS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY UP THE RUSSIAN RIVER DRAINAGE AND MAY SEEP INTO THE UKIAH VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY PZZ470-475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV  FXUS66 KEKA 011030 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 330 AM PDT MON AUG 1 2011 .SYNOPSIS...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY NEAR THE COAST...BUT NEVER FULLY DISSIPATE TODAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FURTHER INLAND AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. && .DISCUSSION... CONCERNING CONVECTION...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS TRINITY COUNTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AND SUNDAY WAS A LITTLE BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES OVER 7.5 C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS. LOOKING AT THE VARIABLES AGAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MANY LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NEGATIVE LI VALUES...MARGINAL CAPE...SIMILAR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND A SHORTWAVE TRIGGER WILL ALL BE IN PLACE FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER EACH OF THESE VARIABLES WILL BE SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT NORTH OF TRINITY COUNTY AS PER THE GFS AND NAM MODELS. OTHER MODEL DATA IS SPLIT ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE CRAS INFRARED 4KM FORECAST MODEL INDICATES NO THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE 4KM SPC WRF DEVELOPS STORMS BOTH OVER THE TRINITY ALPS AND YOLLA BOLLYS. CONSIDERING ALL OF THIS...HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TRINITY ALPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE YOLLA BOLLYS. AS ALREADY STATED...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA. BY TUESDAY THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHED WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AND INSTABILITY NOT AS IMPRESSIVE. THUS HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE OVER THE CWA LEADING TO INCREASING LIFT. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LACKING ABOVE THE SURFACE...BUT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRIGGER A SLIGHT RISK OF A STORM OVER THE TRINITY ALPS SEEMS REASONABLE. BY THURSDAY THE RISK DECREASES ONCE AGAIN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES/VORTICITY WILL PASS OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND THUNDER MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT. HOWEVER CONSIDERING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE MARINE LAYER...THE STRATUS HAS DIFFICULTY COMPLETELY DISSIPATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SURGE STILL HOLDING ACROSS COASTAL MENDOCINO AND NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO HOLD MOISTURE ALONG THE HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTY COASTS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE MINIMAL ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH SREF GUIDANCE HOLDING THE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE...WITH THE STRATUS LIKELY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY BUT RESURGING BACK INLAND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SIMILAR ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INLAND INTRUSION OF THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY INCREASE. HAVE EXPANDED THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS TO INCLUDE MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN HUMBOLDT...DEL NORTE...AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THE STRATUS MAY SPREAD EVEN FURTHER INLAND. CHANCES OF STRATUS FAR INLAND DECREASE BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH PRIMARILY SET OVER THE WEST COAST. COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS NEAR 60 DEGREES WITH INLAND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. && .AVIATION... 11-3.9 IMAGERY SHOWING A THIN RIBBON OF STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH COAST THIS MORNING BUT MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AREA SOUTH ALONG THE MENDO COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL WEAK TROUGH IS SITTING JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY BUT MAY HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO ENHANCE THE STRATUS AND BRING IT IN TO THE COAST TOMORROW. HIGH RES MODELS DO SHOW AN INCREASE IN MARINE LAYER DEPTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW BUT FEEL KCEC AND KACV SHOULD AT LEAST REACH VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A MORE PRONOUNCED MARINE PUSH LOOKS TO OCCUR WED. OTHER THAN ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR ACROSS THE UKIAH VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. TONKIN && .FIRE WEATHER... APPROX 50 C2G STRIKES OCCURRED YESTERDAY IN OR NEAR TRINITY COUNTY WITH THE BULK OVER THE ALPS...AND ABOUT 10 OF THOSE OVER AN AREA BETWEEN WEAVERVILLE AND TRINITY CENTER. YESTERDAYS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS THE MOST WE'VE SEEN ACROSS THE FIRE DISTRICTS IN SOME TIME AND AT THIS TIME ONLY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN MOISTURE AND STABILITY LEAD TO THIS OCCURRENCE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. HAVE TO HAND IT TO OUR FRIENDS IN WISCONSIN AS THE CRAS SIMULATED IR IMAGERY DEPICTED THE ENHANCED CU DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY PERFECTLY...ALONG THE YOLLA BOLLY SPINE AND NORTHWARD TO THE TRINITY ALPS 24 HOURS PREVIOUS. CRAS ALSO VERIFIED WELL BACK ON FRI AND SAT WHEN IT SHOWED NO CLOUD ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE CWA...AND DURING THAT PERIOD SLIGHT CHANCE TSTORMS WERE FORECAST...YET BARELY ANY CU WAS OBSERVED. FOR TODAY...MEDFORD WFO HAS A RED FLAG WARNING FOR DRY LIGHTNING IN EFFECT FOR THEIR SISKIYOU COUNTY ZONES BORDERING TRINITY COUNTY TO THE NORTH. WE WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS THE ALPS AND YOLLA BOLLY SPINE TODAY BUT DUE TO TRINITY COUNTY FUELS BEING BELOW NORMAL IN TERMS OF BURNING POTENTIAL (ERC'S BELOW AVERAGE STILL) AND EXPECTED LIGHTNING COVERAGE TO BE LESS THAN AREAS TO THE NORTH...FEEL A WARNING OR HEADLINE IS NOT WARRANTED. MINIMAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS GETS SHUNTED OFF. HOWEVER MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ALOFT RIDE ACROSS THE REGION... THUS CANNOT DISCOUNT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOONS ACROSS EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT EVENTS EXPECTED. TONKIN && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV  FXUS66 KEKA 112245 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 345 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2011 .SYNOPSIS...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL RETURN TO THE COAST AGAIN TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY PATCHY DRIZZLE. MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NW CALIFORNIA. FRI WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH CLEAR SKIES INLAND AND PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST. && .DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL MAKE A RETURN TO THE COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT. THE BUFKIT NAM RH TIME SERIES SHOWS HIGH VALUES OF RH ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST TONIGHT INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS OF FRI AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. AS SUCH, DRIZZLE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN THE EARLY MORNING. THE DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE FOR FRI OVER THU, MAKING IT MORE DIFFICULT TO BURN OFF. SUN AND MON ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE SHALLOW, ALLOWING FOR BETTER AFTERNOON BURN OFF. MODELS ARE INDICATING A TOUCH OF RIDGING ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA FOR FRI, WHICH WILL ADD A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO THE HIGH TEMPS OVER THU. THIS WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED AS AN UPPER TROUGH ROLLS INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN BY ALMOST 10 DEGREES BY TUE. SO LOOK FOR TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND INTO THE UPPER 70S LOW 80S BY TUE. MODELS ARE TRENDING SIMILAR, BUT THE TIMING OF THE FIRST TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH IS STILL OFF A BIT. BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE W COAST ALLOWING FOR REBOUNDING TEMPS. CONVECTION POTENTIAL...THE THU CRAS IR IMAGERY SHOWED COLD CLOUD TOPS NO LONGER IN OUR CWA, BUT MORE INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS, HAVE DECIDED TO PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS FROM THE FORECAST. THAT SAID, DID LEAVE SOME SILENT POPS IN THE FORECAST GIRDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF TRINITY AND INTERIOR MENDOCINO COUNTIES. DIVERGENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE FAIR AND THE WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SW AND S, 32N389W AND 28N125W RESPECTIVELY. THIS MOISTURE COULD BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF SOME SHORT WAVES AND SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH, SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CAREFULLY TO BE SURE NO TSTMS DEVELOP IN THIS AREA OF MOISTURE. BFG && .AVIATION...NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO MOST AREAS HAVE REMAINED CLOUDY...HOWEVER THE HUMBOLDT AND ARCATA BAY AREA HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. STILL LOOKING FOR KCEC CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. CIGS WILL BE IN AND OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST. TONIGHT SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FILL IN AROUND SUNSET. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS THE AREA SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS SOME DOWNSLOPING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THIS AREA CLEAR. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME DRIZZLE AS A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA SO EXPECT CIGS AND VSBY'S WILL BE LIFR NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. TOMORROW MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN CLEAR. MKK && .MARINE...PERSISTENT PATTERN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MDT TO FRESH N WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ALONG WITH SHORT PERIOD...WIND DRIVEN SEAS. HIGH PRES OFFSHORE WILL BEGIN TO CONTINUE WEAKEN TONIGHT ALLOWING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS TO RELAX. ASCAT WINDS SHOW 15 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND AROUND 20 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SO EXPECT SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO LINGER S OF THE CAPE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THERE IS GENERALLY AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THAT A TROUGH WILL RETURN TO THE WEST COAST...HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THIS. MAINLY WENT WITH THE DGEX AS IT WAS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS. MKK && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY PZZ475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV  FXUS66 KEKA 181116 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 416 AM PDT THU AUG 18 2011 .SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR INTERIOR NW CALIFORNIA. WHILE ALONG THE COAST...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING. && .DISCUSSION...MORNING IR SAT FOG CHANNEL SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST WITH LIMITED INLAND PENETRATION. THESE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE TRYING TO PUSH UP INTO THE LARGER RIVER VALLEYS OF HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COASTS, BUT ARE BEING LIMITED BY A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE, THE FOG SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE COAST AND WILL LIKELY BE A REPEAT OF WED. FOG IS ALSO SHOWING UP IN SAT IMAGERY ALONG THE MENDOCINO COAST WITH LIMITED INLAND INTRUSION. THIS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY TODAY AS IT IS NOT APPEARING VERY THICK. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS ALONG THE COAST, WITH POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS REMAINS ABUNDANT. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WOULD BE OFFSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL NEED TO BE ASSESSED EACH MODEL RUN. AT THIS POINT, DO NOT THINK ANY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX TO THE SFC AT THE COAST AND SCOUR OUT THE FOG OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS SHOWING UP WELL IN THE WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND IS CAUSING THE THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SFC TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF WARM INLAND TEMPS. WV SAT IS ALSO SHOWING A NICE STREAM OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COMING FROM AROUND 25N130W, AND BEING ADVECTED OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND ALONG THE ERN FLANK OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS BRINGING A RISE IN HUMIDITY ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA, WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE CU BUILD UP OVER THE MTNS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING SOME CAPE AND NEG LI'S FOR TODAY AND FRI, BUT THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ON THIS. POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS OVER THE INTERIOR MTNS IS LOW TODAY, BUT MAY NEED TO BE REASSESSED FOR FRI DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AND PROVIDING THE LIFT. THE CLIMAX OF THIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. BY THAT POINT HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE MAY NOT BE PRESENT. AS SUCH, HAVE OPTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER THE INTERIOR MTNS. THE MORNING CRAS IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COOL CLOUD TOPS FOR FRI OR SAT EITHER. WITH TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE E PAC THOUGH, WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THEIR UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED AND ADVECTED IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE TROUGH OFF THE W COAST. ALL THAT TO SAY, CONFDC IS MODERATE AT BEST FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST, AND DETERIORATES QUICKLY BEYOND THAT. BFG && .AVIATION...IR CHANNEL SHOWED PATCHY STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND OVER THE EEL DELTA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIN LAYER OF STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING LATER MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY. && .MARINE...HI PRES BUILDING TOWARD THE PAC NW COUPLED WITH DEVELOPING THERMAL LOW PRES OVER THE CA INTERIOR WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS THROUGH FRI. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY PZZ450-455. GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT PZZ470. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY PZZ470. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY PZZ470. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY PZZ475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV  FXUS66 KEKA 261106 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 406 AM PDT FRI AUG 26 2011 .SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF DEL NORTE AND TRINITY COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE WEEKEND TO BE HOT AND DRY INLAND. THE COAST WILL SEE OVERNIGHT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON. && .DISCUSSION... MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS A BIT SHALLOWER AROUND 1KFT THIS MORNING WITH LESS FOG AND DRIZZLE THAN LAST NIGHT ALONG WITH A BIT STRONGER NORTHERLY GRADIENT. THIS IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY DUE TO WEAK RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS NW CA FOR FRIDAY AS WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT IN THE WV IMAGERY OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHWEST. DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ATTM...BUT NEITHER DID THE WAVE PASSING ACROSS OREGON EARLY THIS AM WHICH GENERATED CONVECTION WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH IT AND INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST. LEFT IN POPS OVER INTERIOR TRINITY AND DEL NORTE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. JUST FROM A PLACEMENT AND TIMING STANDPOINT OF THIS WAVE...THINK THE BEST CHC MAY BE ACROSS DEL NORTE TONIGHT. EITHER WAY...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH. 4KM CRAS IR HINTED AT CONVECTION ACROSS NWRN OREGON LAST NIGHT BUT SHOWS NOTHING ACROSS NRN CA TONIGHT...FWIW. MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEAK RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO EXTEND ACROSS CA FROM THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SW FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE A BIT OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OCCURS...OR PERHAPS JUST A RETURN TO THE ONE WE SAW IN THE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER. DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE PAC NW BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NW CA AROUND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NW FLOW SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE INTERIOR FOR SURE...AS THERMAL TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND WILL WEAKEN. OTHER IMPACT WILL BE TO MARINE LAYER...WHICH WILL LIKELY DEEPEN BUT WILL ALSO HAVE THE TENDENCY TO MIX AND ERODE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LONGER RANGE HINTS TOWARD A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW POTENTIALLY SETTING UP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK CLAIMING RIGHTS TO THE ENTIRE WEST COAST THIS MORNING. ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST VSBY HAVE REMAINED IN THE MVFR RANGE WHILE CIGS HAVE HOVERED AROUND 2-300 FT. FORESEE VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 6 HOURS BEFORE SUBTLE IMPROVEMENT IS SEEN BY LATE MORNING. ACROSS THE INTERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME CU BUILDUPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND AN ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE AROUND THE SISKIYOU AND TRINITY ALPS IN THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE...PRES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HORUS AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MDT WINDS AND STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENP FCST CONTINUES TO SHOW A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL 3 FT AT 20 SEC BUILDING INTO THE WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT TUESDAY PZZ470-475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV  FXUS66 KEKA 071108 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 408 AM PDT WED SEP 7 2011 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TOMORROW BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NW CALIFORNIA. IT WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TRINITY COUNTY ON THU. STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON FRI AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHARP INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE REGION ON SAT. && .DISCUSSION...A WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COASTAL MARINE LAYER REMAINS SUPPRESSED UNDER THIS RIDGE. THE BODEGA BAY PROFILER THIS MORNING IS SHOWING A MARINE LAYER OF ONLY ABOUT 150 TO 200 METERS DEEP, COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY OF AROUND 300 METERS DEEP. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT THE MARINE LAYER RIGHT UP TO THE COAST AGAIN TODAY ALLOWING FOR A GENERALLY CLEAR DAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILTER OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FADE TODAY AS THIS UPPER LOW NEAR 29N131W BEGINS TO SHOW A LOWER LEVEL REFLECTION. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE TO THE NW AND N THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THIS LOW BEING ABSORBED INTO A BROADER CIRCULATION AND PULLED TO THE S THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PAC NW AND EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN, NW CALIFORNIA MAY BE IN FOR A DECENT OFFSHORE WIND EVENT ON FRI. MODELS HAVE INCREASED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS BY SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE RUNS. AS A RESULT, CONTINUED THE TREND THE DAY SHIFT BEGAN IN INCREASING THE HIGHS FOR FRI. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR FRI MAY EVEN NEED TO BE INCREASED IF THE OFFSHORE FLOW CAN STICK AROUND A BIT. MODELS DO SHOW THE PATTERN BREAKING DOWN BY SAT AFTERNOON, WITH AN ONSHORE PUSH COMING BACK. OVERALL, MODELS SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT THEY HAVE ALL BEEN SHIFTING TOGETHER OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, SO AM HESITANT TO COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON MED TO LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS. THERE ARE SOME FIRE WEATHER THREATS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK, AND CAN BE READ ABOUT BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION. BFG && .AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING KACV AND KCEC. FOG IS LOOKING RATHER DENSE TONIGHT WITH A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE OR MIST. GRADIENTS HAVE BEGUN TO EASE FROM THE NORTH AND LOOK TO BECOME WEAKLY OFFSHORE HEADING THROUGH TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES THAN YESTERDAY NEARING THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR INLAND AREAS. AAD && .MARINE...NOT MUCH GOING ON ACROSS THE WATERS AT THE MOMENT WITH WEAK GRADIENTS AND LIGHT WINDS WITH A SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. THIS IS MIXED WITH A 1-2FT LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL IN AREAS NOT SHELTERED BY CAPE MENDOCINO. LOTS OF CHANGES ARE IN STORE BEGINNING LATER WEDNESDAY AS AN INTENSE STORM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA HAS GENERATED A NW SWELL. THIS WILL BE AROUND 12 SECS IN PERIOD AND BETWEEN 7-10FT IN MAGNITUDE. FORECAST IS STILL RATHER CONSERVATIVE UNTIL WE ARE A BIT CLOSER AND CAN BE MORE CONFIDENT IN THE HIGHER MAGNITUDES DEPICTED IN THE MODELS...WHICH OFTEN END UP BEING TOO HIGH. GRADIENT WILL THEN INCREASE WITH NEAR GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS ON FRIDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW AND POSITION OF THERMAL LOW MAY KEEP WINDS LIGHTER NEAR THE COAST TO PRECLUDE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WINDS...BUT STILL A RATHER ROUGH COMBINATION WITH THE NW SWELL. CONDITIONS WILL EASE UP OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SOUTHERLY SWELL POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HELD OFF ON ISSUING GALE WATCH FOR NORTHERN OUTER WATERS FOR NOW BUT WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST SCA CONDITIONS MET THU NT-SAT AM. AAD && .FIRE WEATHER...VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BEGIN TODAY AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEP SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE OVERNIGHT CRAS IMAGERY DOES INDICATE SOME CU DEVELOPING THIS EVENING OVER THE TRINITY HORN, WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS DOWN TO -7C. THE DAY SHIFT FROM TUE MADE MENTION OF POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING FOR THU. WHILE MODELS DO HAVE THE CAPE AND NEG LIS FOR THE EASTERN TERRAIN, THEY ARE ALSO SHOWING DECENT RH VALUES IN THE MID LEVELS AND PUSHING THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH PWAT. WITH THAT, DO NOT THINK DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE OF GREAT CONCERN, BUT HAVE KEPT THE MENTION IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST THIS MORNING. THE MORE THREATENING TIME IN THE FORECAST WILL BE FRI AFTERNOON. AS AN UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE PAC NW, THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NORTHERN FIRE WEATHER ZONES CAUSING GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS. FRI WILL ALSO LIKELY BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE YEAR WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL CAUSE VERY LOW RH ACROSS ALL OF NW CALIFORNIA FOR FRI. THESE COMBINE WITH THE FUEL BEING OR NEARLY BEING CURED, COULD RESULT IN A RED FLAG DAY. THIS PATTERN REALLY BEGAN TO SHOW IN THE 12Z RUNS YESTERDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT WITH THE 00Z RUNS. THE DAY CREW WILL EVALUATE THE NEW 12Z RUNS LATER THIS MORNING, AND IF DATA REMAIN CONSISTENT, AT LEAST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED. REALLY WENT BACK AND FORTH OVERNIGHT WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A FWA AND DECIDED NOT TO, BUT WILL HEADLINE IN THE FWF. CONVECTION DOES CONTINUE TO REMAIN A THREAT FOR SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WEAKLY STABLE. DID UP THE SILENT POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF ALL REMAINS ON TRACK, WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO SLIGHT CHANCE ON TONIGHTS SHIFT. BFG && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV  FXUS66 KEKA 231039 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 332 AM PDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR MORE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH COAST. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH COAST WILL ARRIVE LATER LATER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO MENDOCINO COUNTY FRIDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK UNDER WEAK ONSHORE FLOW MAINTAINING SOME WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES LEADING INTO THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE THE CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE GIVING RISE TO SOME BREAKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANYMORE RAINFALL TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TOMORROW AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LACK MOISTURE AND MUCH OF A SFC REFLECTION ALONG THE COAST BUT WILL CARRY PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT. BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW AND LF QUAD OF A JET STREAK SWINGING SOUTHWARD MAY GIVE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ITS BEST SHOT OF SOME RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING AND INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE FOR FRIDAY...WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS MENDOCINO COUNTY. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS MINIMAL AS MID TO UPPER FLOW WORKS FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH. THIS IS GENERALLY A POOR DIRECTION CLIMATICALLY FOR TSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS LAND PORTIONS OF NW CA. PERFECT PROG ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT A 10% CHANCE OF A STRIKE OR TWO ON FRIDAY BUT THAT IS ACROSS OUR EASTERN FRINGES. CRAS IMAGERY GIVES NO HINTS AT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SIERRA...THUS KEPT TSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST. ONCE THIS FEATURE EXITS TO THE EAST...A FLATTENING RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NORTHERLY FLOW TENDING ONSHORE LEADING TO WARMER TEMPS INLAND AND OVERNIGHT/AM LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST. LONGER RANGE PATTERN HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY VERY WARM AND DRY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH PERHAPS MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW. AAD/JT && .AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF THE CAPE. CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED INTO VFR THIS MORNING WHICH IS COUNTER TO MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH WANT IFR CONDITIONS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS OFF THE COAST AND THESE COULD LOWER CIGS FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE CAPE. OTHERWISE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT TODAY SHOULD ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...OR REDEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...THROUGH THE DAY. A NEW SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT UKI. RPA && .MARINE...AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOUTH OF THE CAPE TODAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTENSIFYING THE NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN NEAR GALE CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL WATERS. A GALE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED TODAY TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY. A NORTHWEST SWELL NEAR 7 FT AT 10 SECONDS COMBINED WITH BUILDING SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL RESULT IN COMBINED SEAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BETWEEN 12 AND 15 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODELS INDICATE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LEADING TO CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS. RPA && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... SCA NOON WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM PDT SATURDAY PZZ455. SCA NOON WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM PDT SUNDAY PZZ475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV  FXUS66 KEKA 201050 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 340 AM PDT WED JUN 20 2012 .SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL WEST OF THE AREA. THUS CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE CWA. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD RESTRICT COASTAL STRATUS FORMATION TONIGHT...BUT A FEW PATCHY AREAS MAY DEVELOP NEAR HUMBOLDT BAY. AS OF 2AM THE CURRENT TEMP AT WFO EKA IS ALREADY DOWN TO 46 SO WITH CONDITIONS VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT ANOTHER RECORD IS POSSIBLE WITH THE OLD RECORD OF 44F ON THE 20TH LAST SET IN 2003...THE ONLY MONKEY WRENCH FOR THAT TO HAPPEN IS IF THE STRATUS REFORMS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES INLAND ON WEDNESDAY THE STRATUS OFF THE COAST SHOULD SURGE EASTWARD WITH CLOUDY SKIES ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE A NICE WINDOW FOR COASTAL STRATUS...FOG AND DRIZZLE. ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO THUR MORNING ...ADDED THOSE ELEMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A DECENT MARINE PUSH. A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW NEAR 27N 134W WILL BE CAUGHT UP BY AN ADVANCING LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST TOWARD THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY PULLING THE UPPER LOW NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS INDICATE THE LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE ON THURSDAY BUT TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES THE CWA. STILL EYEING THURSDAY AND LATE THURSDAY AS A POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ...BUT AXIS OF INSTABILITY DEFINITELY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOKS VERY DRY WITH NO INDICATION OF ANY TAP OF MOISTURE TO AID DEVELOPMENT. PROGGED SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE ALWAYS PRESENT MID LEVEL CAP. CRAS IMAGERY SHOWS NO INDICATION OF ANY DEVELOPMENT AND SPC PERFECT PROG ONLY SHOWS A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1 CG STRIKE. NONETHELESS CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EXTREME EAST SIDE OF THE CWA. ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EKA CWA WILL ULTIMATELY BE CARRIED INTO MFR/STO CWA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. (SEE FWX DISC BELOW) AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHEN COOL AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE CWA INCREASING INSTABILITY. THURSDAY NIGHT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PINWHEELING SHORTWAVES AROUND ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY PERIODS EXPECTED BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. GFS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF QPF AND GIVEN THE 564DM LINE FALLS WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA HAVE BUMPED POPS AND QPF UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. RP/JT && .AVIATION...OFFSHORE FLOW IS CREATING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION APPEARS TO BE AN AREA OF IFR STRATUS IN THE EEL RIVER VALLEY...AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND NORTH TO TRINIDAD. THIS SHOWS UP WELL ON THE 11-3.9 SATELLITE. AS OF 2AM ACV IS SHOWING IFR CIGS. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAKLY OFFSHORE FROM CEC TO MFR SO EXPECT STRATUS MAY BE IN AND OUT THIS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE EXPECT STRATUS WILL CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR. MODELS SHOW SOME STRATUS ALONG THE COAST SHOWING UP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING. THIS EVENING STRATUS LOOKS TO BRING IFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY BACK INTO THE AREA AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY SPREADING TO THE MAJORITY OF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING THE RETURN OF THE STRATUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MKK && .MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN WITH AN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS THE WATERS SO ENDED ALL GALES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TAKE THEIR TIME DIMINISHING BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL BY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DROPS DOWN THE THE COAST AND SITS OVER OREGON BEFORE MOVING OUT ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF DIFFERENT WAVES MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING...HOWEVER THE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT A FEW VARIOUS TIMES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THE TIMING TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. SEAS LOOK TO BE MAINLY LIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA STARTING ON FRIDAY AND BUILDING TO AROUND 3 FEET AT 16 SECONDS FOR THE WEEKEND. MKK && .FIRE WEATHER... STILL EYEING THURSDAY AND LATE THURSDAY AS A POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF TRINITY COUNTY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOKS VERY DRY WITH NO INDICATION OF ANY TAP OF MOISTURE TO AID DEVELOPMENT. PROGGED SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE ALWAYS PRESENT MID LEVEL CAP. CRAS IMAGERY SHOWS NO INDICATION OF ANY DEVELOPMENT AND SPC PERFECT PROG ONLY SHOWS A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1 CG STRIKE. SO AS WE GET CLOSER IT IS LOOKING VERY UNIMPRESSIVE. NONETHELESS CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EXTREME EAST SIDE OF THE CWA. COMING OFF THE HEELS OF DECENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE HOT AND DRY. THUS IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY WILL LIKELY BE DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN OFF THE COAST AND THE AIRMASS WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY AND MOISTEN UP. THIS COOL AND MOIST PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST WELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TONKIN && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA  FXUS66 KEKA 231729 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 1029 AM PDT MON JUL 23 2012 .UPDATE...UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN TRINITY AND FAR EASTERN MENDOCINO COUNTIES. ADDED ISOLATED LIGHTING STRIKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE 12Z NAM CAME IN WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME CAPE MAKING IT OVER THE CAP. THIS MAKES SENSE WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKY MTNS. SOME ACCUS IS SHOWING UP OVER LAKE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY HINTING AT SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. ALSO THIS AGREES WITH SPC MORNING UPDATE THAT EXTENDED THE 10 PCT THUNDER LINE OVER US. THE CRAS IR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS IN THAT AREA. ALL THAT SAID...DONT EXPECT THERE WILL BE MORE THAN A COUPLE STRIKES IF STORMS DO FORM...HOWEVER WITH DRY FUELS WANTED TO MAKE SURE WE DIDNT MISS IT. MKK && .SYNOPSIS... AFTER A FEW CLOUDS AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR BOTH THE COAST AND INTERIOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING INLAND. && .SHORT TERM... .LONG TERM... && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 AM PDT MON JUL 23 2012/ SYNOPSIS... AFTER A FEW CLOUDS AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR BOTH THE COAST AND INTERIOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING INLAND. UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE ON THE SKY COVER THIS MORNING MAINLY FOR THE MENDOCINO COAST. A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED NORTH TO PT ARENA AND MENDOCINO. STILL EXPECTED TO THIS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST CRESCENT CITY HAS CLEARED AND EUREKA LOOKS ON TRACK TO CLEAR BY MIDDAY. MKK PREV DISCUSSION... LOCALIZED AREA OF COASTAL STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND THE EEL RIVER VALLEY UP TO ABOUT TRINIDAD. SUSPECT THESE CLOUDS ARE RATHER SHALLOW AND OVERALL COVERAGE IS MUCH LESS THAN PAST MORNINGS WITH WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENT DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE ORCA BORDER. GUIDANCE AND CLIMO WITH THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS MOST OF THE STRATUS SHOULD ERODE FAIRLY QUICKLY...BY MID-MORNING OR SO. THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT ALTHOUGH NAM/WRF-ARW INDICATE SOME STRATUS CREEPING INTO THE LOWER EEL RIVER VALLEY UP TO SRN HUMBOLDT BAY TUESDAY MORNING. THE OTHER ISSUE MAY BE A COASTAL WIND REVERSAL WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WORKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE MENDOCINO COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD VERY WELL BRING SOME SHALLOW STRATUS TO THE IMMEDIATE MENDOCINO COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING...WHERE WE CURRENTLY ARE FORECASTING CLEAR SKIES. ON WEDNESDAY THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL SWITCH BACK ONSHORE WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW...WHILE THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PACIFIC HIGH AND THERMAL LOW WEAKENS DRAMATICALLY. THIS WILL ALLOW STRATUS TO RETURN TO MOST OF THE COAST OUTSIDE OF PROTECTED AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDO IN NRLY FLOW. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN THROUGH SATURDAY WITH POOR MIXING ALLOWING FOR DEEP INLAND PENETRATION OF STRATUS AND SLOWER BURN OFF...WITH THE NORTH COAST STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOONS. BY SUNDAY RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WHICH WILL SUPPRESS THE MARINE LAYER BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN. FOR THE INTERIOR...THIS PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOWER RH VALUES AND POORER OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WITH HOT TEMPERATURES. 100 DEGREE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR MANY OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AWAY FROM THE NORTH COAST SO FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMIZED. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND RH WILL RISE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT MARINE PUSH. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SO THAT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS. MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CLIP THE YOLLA BOLLYS AND TRINITY COUNTY TODAY BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY WELL TO THE EAST...EVIDENCED BY THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING NEAR THE SIERRAS. MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT UP HERE WITH MORE SUBSIDENCE AND A MID-LEVEL CAP. WEAK JET STREAK AND SOME MINOR INSTABILITY ALONG WITH SOME DECENT MODIFIED TT VALUES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT STILL EXPECT THERE TO BE A CAP AND OVERALL DRY SOUNDING OUTSIDE OF SHALLOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. LONG STORY SHORT...JUST HAVE SOME GHOST POPS FOR NOW. AAD AVIATION...AREA OF LOW CIGS OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS N OF CAPE MENDO AND EXTENDING WELL UP THE EEL RIVER VALLEY HAS REMAINED ABOUT UNCHANGED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS PER IR FOG SAT IMAGERY. KACV SITS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD MASS WITH OVC CIGS BUT NO FOG AS YET. KCEC HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED VSBYS BELOW 1SM IN FOG...POSSIBLY MORE RADIATIONAL THAN ADVECTION DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS ERODE FAIRLY RAPIDLY ALONG THE INLAND EDGES. /SEC MARINE...HAVE STAYED THE COURSE WITH THE ONGOING GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. DID CHOOSE TO END THE N NEAR SHORE ADVISORY AT THE SAME TIME AS THE N OFFSHORE GALE WARNING. WIND GUSTS IN THE N OFFSHORE ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO 45 KTS...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGHER GUSTS ALSO LIKELY SW OF PT ST GEORGE AND CAPE MENDO. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY TUE NIGHT AND WED. /SEC && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY PZZ450. GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY PZZ470. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY PZZ455. GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY PZZ475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA