---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 042143 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 343 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2014 .SHORT TERM... .TODAY AND TONIGHT... LIGHT RETURNS OVER SOUTHERN WI ON MOSAIC AND LOCAL RADAR IMAGERY ARE INDICATIVE OF LOWER CLOUDS SPREADING IN. IT IS TAKING A WHILE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN...BUT ROCKFORD REPORTED LIGHT SNOW IN THE 21Z HOUR...SO THE SNOW IS ON ITS WAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A CLASSIC DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST...COMPLETE WITH DRY SLOT AND DEFORMATION ZONE. THE SNOW IS ON THE FAVORED SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WRAP-AROUND REGION...PER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THIS SYSTEM...OR THE MAIN AREA OF WIDESPREAD SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY...WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI WHEN THE AREA OF HIGHER UPPER DIVERGENCE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVE IN...BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM. PEAK VALUES WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST WI RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT. THIS IS WHEN A DIGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER IOWA/MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN WI LANDS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 200KT STRENGTHENING UPPER JET. IN ADDITION...MID-LAYER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL CROSS SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT WITH A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. SNOW OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN WI WILL OCCUR FROM LATE EVENING UNTIL EARLY MORNING...ABOUT A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 3.5 INCHES VARYING FROM LESS NORTH TO MOST SOUTH TOWARD THE IL BORDER. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME BROAD WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED BANDS TO SET UP WITHIN THESE DEFORMATION AND FRONTOGENETICAL ZONES SOMEWHERE IN THE MKX FORECAST AREA...CAUSING ENHANCED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH HIGHER THAN FORECAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AS THIS SYSTEM UNFOLDS. IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC SNOW...THERE SHOULD BE SOME ENHANCEMENT TO SNOW AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST WI DUE TO THE LAKE INFLUENCE AND A FAVORABLE NORTHEAST FETCH. DELTA-T OVERNIGHT INCREASES TO 15-16 DEGREES WITH INVERSION HEIGHT INCREASING TO AROUND 4K FEET. WIND DIRECTION SLOWLY BACKS LATE TONIGHT AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z RESULTING IN MODERATE OMEGA AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHARTS INDICATE MODERATE SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION TO THE MAIN SYSTEM SNOW. THE ADVISORY STILL LOOKS REASONABLE WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 5.5 INCH RANGE. THE UNCERTAIN AREA WOULD BE SOUTHEAST WALWORTH COUNTY...THEY ARE NOT IN THE ADVISORY BUT COULD SEE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT TO BUMP UP THEIR SNOWFALL TOTALS. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE NOON HOUR. THIS IS LONGER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS BECAUSE MOST MODELS ARE NOW HANGING ON TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WI LONGER. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN FALL WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE DAY. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY. THE 850/700 MB LAYERS STILL HAVE FAIRLY HIGH RH...THEN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE 850/700 MB RH DECREASES. 850 MB COLD AIR ADVECTION DROPS 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO -19. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR ANOTHER COLD PERIOD. RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS NOT TOO FAVORABLE AS SURFACE WINDS STAY UP...AND WITH CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WINDS MAY NOT DECOUPLE. HOWEVER WIND CHILLS MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. .FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS MAINLY ZONAL FRIDAY AND BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE CENTRAL U.S. THE GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX ARE NOT AS STRONG WITH THE TROUGH AND IS NOW MORE NORTH THEN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS IS CLOSER THAN THE PREVIOUS SUNDAY CRAS RUN FOR THIS PERIOD. THE GFS/DGEX AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL DRY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS SPREADS LIGHT SNOW INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY DUE TO THE BROADER AND MORE NORTH MID/UPPER TROUGH. .LONG TERM... .SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THE 12 GFS BRINGS A MORE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY...THAT REACHES THE NORTHEAST U.S. ON MONDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND DGEX SIMILAR WITH A SEPARATE NORTH STREAM AND SECOND STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THE 12Z GFS IS STILL THE FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...WITH A LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z DGEX HAS THE MAIN LOW OVER THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. WITH A WEAKER TROUGH EXTENDING BACK NORTH. THE GFS BRINGS LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z DGEX ARE DRY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY...CONTINUING THE COLD TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH IS STILL OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND DGEX PUSH IT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... SOON && .MARINE... SOON && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ066-071-072. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HENTZ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXHW60 PHFO 310641 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 830 PM HST THU JAN 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI FRIDAY NIGHT...AND STALL NEAR OAHU SATURDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND THEN BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... IN THE NEAR TERM...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MANY CHANGES TO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS WILL HELP TO KEEP MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. SHOWERS ON THE BIG ISLAND ARE TAPERING OFF SOME SINCE THIS AFTERNOON/S ACTIVITY. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THAT COULD SPARK SOME MORE SHOWERS...BUT AGREE THAT THE TREND OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE DOWN. THE MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A SURFACE LOW FAR NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS MOVES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...KEEPING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI FRIDAY NIGHT...STALLING OUT OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS ON SATURDAY. WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT...SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP TO USHER IN MOISTURE...KEEPING SHOWERS NOT ONLY ALONG THE FRONT BUT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS...THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THEIR HANDLING OF BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. THE GFS AND UKMET ARE SIMILAR IN THEIR MORE AGGRESSIVE NATURE OF LIFTING THE LOW TO THE NORTH. THE ECMWF LAGS A BIT BUT ALSO LIFTS THE LOW NORTHWARD. THE CRAS IS IS THE SLOWEST...BUT KEEPS THE SAME GENERAL MOTION. THE SAME IS TRUE IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INVIGORATE THE STALLED FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE ISLANDS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .MARINE... THE NEXT NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF SUNDAY/MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER ACROSS LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AS OF 8 PM HST. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD AVIATION...POWELL  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXHW60 PHFO 081347 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 400 AM HST FRI NOV 8 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HEAVY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY TODAY ON KAUAI...AND THIS AFTERNOON ON OAHU. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES TO RETURN TODAY...AND INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING ENHANCED SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. && .DISCUSSION... AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN MOVED OVER KAUAI SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...ADDITIONAL RAIN HAS FORMED AND MOVED ONSHORE OF THE GARDEN ISLE. THE CRAS AND NAM MODELS BOTH PICKED UP BETTER ON THE ADDITIONAL POPS OVER KAUAI FOR TODAY COMPARED TO THE GLOBAL AND OTHER MODELS. HAVE BEEFED UP POPS FOR KAUAI FOR ALL DAY TODAY AS A RESULT OF THE MODEL DEPICTION AND THE CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY. NOT SURPRISING THE CRAS AND NAM ALSO BOTH SHOW A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER KAUAI THAN THE OTHER MODELS. HAVE ADDED THE CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR KAUAI ALL DAY...AND FOR THE AFTERNOON ON OAHU. THE LIHUE 12Z SOUNDING HAS 2.02 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/...BUT AS THERE WERE HEAVY SHOWERS IN THE AREA AT THE TIME OF THE LAUNCH...THIS IS LIKELY ON THE HIGH END. HILO HAD 1.69 INCHES OF PW AND SHOWS A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE OVERALL PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME. AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL STICK AROUND TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...AND IS HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS OVER KAUAI...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT OAHU. THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE ISLANDS IS WEAKENING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME TRADES TO BUILD BACK IN TODAY. A SURFACE LOW NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS IS WEAKENING...BUT MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH IS RESURGENCE SATURDAY...AND WITH IT ASSOCIATED FRONT REACHING TOWARDS THE ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND. COMBINED WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT REMAINS OVERHEAD...AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS STRENGTHENS...TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE RISE. THIS SPELLS WET TRADES PARTICULARLY FOR WINDWARD LOCATIONS...BUT THE STRONG WINDS AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO REACH AND FORM OVER LEEWARD AREAS. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE ECMWF HAS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES FORECAST AT 500 MB...GETTING AS COLD AS -12 C OVER KAUAI SUNDAY. THE GFS AND NOGAPS ARE CLOSER TO -10 C. NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS ABOUT -8 C. BOTH OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS HAD NEAR NORMAL 500 MB TEMPERATURES. AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS SHOULD WEAKEN...SO EXPECT THE STRONG TRADES TO WEAKEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS LIKE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL WORK THEIR WAY IN...AS THE FRONT COULD RETROGRADE BACK ACROSS THE ISLANDS. && .MARINE... THE CURRENT MODERATE NORTH SWELL WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL THIS WEEKEND. A LARGE...SHORT-PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS. A SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATE ON TUESDAY AND BUILD TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. AS TRADES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE POSTED OVER MOST...IF NOT ALL...COASTAL WATERS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. EXPECT THE TRADES TO TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. && .AVIATION... THE AIRMET FOR MTN OBSC OVR THE INTERIOR MTNS OF KAUAI WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FROM 16Z TO 18Z. OTHERWISE...THE PREVAILING FLYING COND IS VFR. THERE WILL STILL BE BRIEF MVFR CEILING AND VIS WITH THE WIDELY DISPERSED SHOWERS RIDING IN WITH THE TRADE WIND FLOW. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS OF THE LARGER ISLANDS. COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS...HOWEVER...WILL NOT WARRANT AN AIRMET FOR MTN OBSC FOR THE MORNING HOURS. HVY SHRA MAY RESUME OVR INTERIOR KAUAI AND OAHU AFT 22Z WHICH MAY WARRANT AN AIRMET FOR MTN OBSC. TEMPO MOD TURB BTN FL330 AND FL400...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE JET STREAM...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 090400 UTC. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD AVIATION...LAU  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXHW60 PHFO 070139 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 400 PM HST WED NOV 6 2013 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLANDS AGAIN TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A WET TRADE WIND PATTERN TO THE ISLANDS INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES SATURDAY WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES BY MONDAY. && .DISCUSSION... A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR MOLOKAI AND A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR KAUAI ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE TONIGHT...AND THE MODELS SHOW THE RESULTING BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE BOUNDARIES HAVE WEAKENED THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS. AS EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FORMED OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LIGHT WINDS THAT ALLOWED FOR SEA BREEZES. THE GFS HAS THE REMAINS OF THE BOUNDARY PASSING OVER THE ISLANDS TOMORROW...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE LIGHT WIND FLOW. SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES SHOW SIMILAR VALUES OVER AND UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHER POPS TOMORROW AFTERNOON THAN TODAY...WITH THE CRAS BEING THE WETTEST. HAVE BOOSTED POPS STARTING WITH TOMORROW AFTERNOON TRENDING THEM TOWARDS THE CRAS DUE TO THE RESULTS OF TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ATTEMPT TO BRING TRADE WINDS BACK TO THE ISLANDS. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME LIGHT TRADES ON FRIDAY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES FOUND STATEWIDE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS TO THE ISLANDS INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...WHICH WOULD KEEP A WET TRADE WIND PATTERN OVER THE ISLANDS. && .MARINE... AS WINDS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A MODERATE NORTH SWELL WILL PEAK ON THURSDAY THEN DROP TO SMALL LEVELS FOR FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL THIS WEEKEND. A LARGE...SHORT-PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS. && .AVIATION... LGT/VAR WINDS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE PRODUCING SHRA/+RA OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS...MAINLY OAHU. A SHALLOW SHEARLINE WILL ALSO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL -SHRA/-DZ ON KAUAI AND ADJ WTRS THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING EWD THRU TONIGHT. SHRA/BR WILL SHIFT BACK TO WINDWARD TERRAIN AFT 07/04Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF LGT WINDS AND AFTERNOON TCU/+RA EXPECTED THU 07/22Z-08/03Z. AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. THIS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE JET STREAM ALF IS PRODUCING CHOP AOA FL320 AFFECTING MAINLY HIGH LVL TRAFFIC SO AIRMET TANGO WILL ALSO REMAIN POSTED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD AVIATION...DEJESUS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KFGF 080939 AFDFGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 339 AM CST FRI FEB 8 2013 .SHORT TERM... MANY CHALLENGES THIS FCST PERIOD. FIRST OFF...CLOUD COVER TODAY. AREAS OF CLEAR SKY IN EASTERN FCST AREA AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG FORMING. ALSO HAVE AERAS OF FOG THAT FORMED UNDERNEATH A CLEAR HOLE EARLIER IN THE EVENING IN THE COOPESTOWN-VALLEY CITY AREAS. SO WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG TIL 16Z. LOW STRATUS COVERS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND ERN ND AND IS TRYING TO SPREAD EAST. FOR TODAY...RAP MODEL HANGS MOISTURE AROUND IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER MOST OF THE DAY...BUT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND INCREASES DURING THE DAY TO 15 TO 20 KTS IN THE VALLEY...BUT DIRECTION NOT FAVORABLE FOR BIG BURNOFF OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IF LOW CLOUDS DID BURN OFF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE SO MOSTLY CLOUDY IDEA ALL BUT FAR EAST SEEMS GOOD TODAY. TEMPS WILL WARM SLOWLY TODAY AND IDEA OF LOW TO MID 20S STILL OK WITH SOME UPPER 20S OR AROUND 30 FAR SOUTHWEST IN GWINNER AREA DUE TO DOWNSLOPING OFF SISSESTON HILLS. WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE THRU LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE ERN FCST AREA SATURDAY. SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY ESP INTO ERN ND. WILL HANG ON TO CLOUDS AND VERY LOW CHC OF PRECIP SATURDAY IN BDE-BJI-ADC AREAS PER PREV FCST AND GFS MODEL IDEA OF SOME SATURATION AND LIGHT QPF. LOTS OF QUESTIONS REGARDING UPCOMING SYSTEM. STILL QUITE THE MODEL SPREAD AS 00Z-06Z NAM AND ITS LIKE MODELS SUCH AS THE SREF AND CRAS MODEL VIA UW-MADISON MAINTAIN A FARTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST TRACK OF SFC LOW TO JUST NORTHWEST OF SIOUX FALLS THEN TOWARD ST CLOUD WITH A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH AND A BIG AREA OF SNOW ALL THE WAY BACK TO WRN ND AND INTO MANITOBA. 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT AND USED FOR THIS FCST AND PREFERRED BY HPC. IDEA IS SFC LOW TO BE IN FAR NW IOWA 18Z SUN THEN TRACK TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN MN 00Z MON. UPPER LOW A BIT FARTHER NORTHWEST FAVORS MAIN DEF ZONE SNOW FROM ERN SD INTO FAR SE ND INTO NORTHEASTERN MN. HPC SNOWFALL GRAPHIC HAS 6 INCH LINE ROX-GFK-JMS WITH 10-12 IN FAR SE ND AND WCNTRL MN. TIMING OF SNOW HAS IT REACHING SE ND JUST PAST 06Z SPREAD AND REACHING NE ND/NW MN NR 12Z SUN. NOTED THAT 00Z UKMET AND 00Z GEM REMAIN A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND LESS WRAPPED UP WITH PRECIP AND WOULD ONLY GIVE PRECIP TO FAR SE ND INTO MN AND LEAVE MOST OF NORTHEASTERN ND WITH WAY LESS PRECIP. COORD WITH BIS/DLH LEAD TO ISSUANCE OF WINTER STORM WATCHES STARTING LATE NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A ROX-GFK-JMS LINE. FOR GFS/ECMWF SOLNS...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KTS SUSTAINED IN THE VALLEY LATE SUN AFTN-NIGHT. AFTER COORD DID INCREASE WIND SPEEDS IN GRIDDS OVER ALL BLEND VALUES WHICH SEEMED A BIT LOW. WILL MENTION BLIZZARD CONDITIONS PSBL BUT WITH SUCH UNCERTAINTY YET IN TRACK OF STORM AND WIND FIELD HESISTANT TO GO BLIZZARD WATCH OFF THE BAT. .LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)... THE SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY. EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO LINGER WITHIN BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX DURING THE DAY...BUT 925 MB WINDS AROUND 25-30 KTS AND DECENT MIXING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING AT LEAST. MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...SO TEMPS LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE FOR MONDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE AIR MASS WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN...SUPPORTING TEMPS NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...TEMPS MAY BE COOLER IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL. MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. 00Z MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY SUPPORTING LOW POPS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS RANGE DUE TO SIGNIFICANT MODEL VARIABILITY. && .AVIATION... QUITE CHALLENGING TO TIME IF OR WHEN THE LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BURN OFF. FOR BEMIDJI THINK BETTER CHC FOR THE LOWER CLOUDS/FOG TO BURN OFF TO GIVE SOME SUN TODAY AS JUST ENOUGH DRIER AIR MAY REMAIN IN THAT REGION THIS AFTN. FOR THE REST OF THE REGION IN THE FAR NW MN AND ERN ND WILL GO MORE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE...THOUGH WOULD EXPECT IFR CIGS TO IMPROVE MODESTLY TO LOW END MVFR THIS AFTN. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME CLEARING HOLES DEVELOP HOWEVER. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ESP IN THE VALLEY. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NDZ038-039-049-052-053. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NDZ027-029-030. MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MNZ003-024-027>032-040. WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MNZ001-002-005>009-013>017-022-023. && $$ RIDDLE/MAKOWSKI  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXHW60 PHFO 120146 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 400 PM HST FRI JAN 11 2013 .SYNOPSIS... WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE EAST...AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR INTERIOR AND LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE WESTERN ISLANDS AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE. && .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE STATE. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH ARE A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES...LOCATED NEAR KAUAI/OAHU AND OVER 300 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH IS LOCATED LESS THAN 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HILO. A STRONG HIGH IS LOCATED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER 400 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI...WHILE A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FAR TO THE NORTHWEST. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM HILO AND LIHUE SHOW AN OTHERWISE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH NO EFFECTIVE INVERSION. PRECIPITABLE WATERS RANGE FROM 0.94 AT LIHUE TO 1.15 AT HILO. EARLY AFTERNOON MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS GREATER MOISTURE UPSTREAM...WITH PW VALUES UP TO 1.7 INCHES WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE SURFACE TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE ISLANDS TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING TO OUR WEST ON SATURDAY. PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN OFFSHORE WATERS...BUT THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THIS AREA HAS STARTED TO SLOW...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS WINDWARD COASTAL WATERS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MAIN COMPLEX TO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED ACROSS LEEWARD SLOPES OF HALEAKALA...AND LEEWARD AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS LEEWARD ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT WINDWARD SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVERNIGHT. THE GFS-LAMP IMPLIES THAT LAND BREEZES WILL WIN OUT WITH WINDWARD BIG ISLAND CLEARING OUT...WHILE THE 12Z CRAS INDICATES THAT THE EASTERN CONVECTION WILL SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND. GIVEN THAT THE MAIN CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD AND THAT MANY LOCATIONS CLEARED OUT LAST NIGHT...WILL LEAN TOWARD THAT PATTERN AGAIN FOR TONIGHT. KEPT HIGHER POPS FOR WINDWARD SECTIONS THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTION SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND... ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE THE FREEZING LEVEL ON THE HILO SOUNDING IS OVER 13KFT...THE WETBULB ZERO HEIGHT IS BELOW 10KFT. AS CLOUDS INITIALLY REACH SUMMIT LEVEL...THEY COULD BE SHALLOW ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION. DURING HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ICE NUCLEATION...WITH HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW BEING POSSIBLE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A CHANCE OF A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW...WHICH SHOULD COVER THIS SITUATION. THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT MIGHT REACH THE SUMMIT THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOT APPLICABLE. IF THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER BECOME MORE CERTAIN...WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THE SUMMITS. BY SATURDAY WINDS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND TURN SOUTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH...PUTTING THE SMALLER ISLANDS IN A BLOCKED FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED CIRCULATIONS...WITH ONSHORE SEA BREEZES DURING THE DAY AND OFFSHORE LAND BREEZES AT NIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS LEEWARD MAUI AND BIG ISLAND. BY SUNDAY MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES START TO WARM...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE INSTABILITY AND CONSEQUENTLY THUNDER POTENTIAL. HOWEVER WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL INVERSIONS...WE COULD STILL SEE HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN WITH THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE FRONT CURRENTLY FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL HAVE REACHED THE ISLANDS. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY NORTH OF THE STATE...WITH THE PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY AT OUR LATITUDE STARTING TO WEAKEN. THIS WEAKENING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI ON MONDAY...THEN DISSIPATE ACROSS OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACROSS KAUAI LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AND OAHU ON MONDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...A RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH WILL MOVE IN NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. WE SHOULD RETURN TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND PATTERN...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MARINE... THE STRONG HIGH FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE FETCH OF STRONG WINDS OF 30-35 KNOTS POINTED AT THE STATE. THESE WINDS EXTEND FROM JUST UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS TO OVER 1500 MILES EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE WINDS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE EASTERLY TRADE SWELL WITH A LONGER THAN NORMAL PERIOD NEAR 11 SECONDS. WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE NEARSHORE BUOYS EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...MAUI...AND OAHU ARE STARTING TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS. SURF HEIGHTS WILL BUILD FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY START TO DIMINISH FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. THE INCREASE IN THE SWELL TONIGHT DOES CORRESPOND WITH A 2.5 FOOT HIGH TIDE LATE NIGHT...WHICH COULD ENHANCE THE COASTAL IMPACTS FOR EXPOSED WINDWARD COASTS SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...A REINFORCING LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD...AND MAY PRODUCE SURF JUST BELOW THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS STARTING TUESDAY. SURF WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES AT LEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK. A LARGER AND LONGER-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER LEEWARD TERMINALS WITH TEMPO MVFR AT PHTO...AND ISOL MVFR AT PHLI. TEMPO MVFR EXPECTED ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES IN CLD AND SHRA. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND LEEWARD HALEAKALA EARLY THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A TROUGH ALOFT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST IS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE...AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE INTO SATURDAY. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM HST SATURDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 600 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS...EXCEPT THE MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS AND MAALAEA BAY. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE...BRAVENDER AVIATION...MORRISON  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 101635 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1035 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013 .UPDATE... HAVE PUSHED BACK PRECIP CHANCES UNTIL 21Z IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST...AND ABOUT 23Z IN MILWAUKEE AND MADISON. THE NAM12...GEM...SREF...CRAS SHOW LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION BEFORE 21Z. THE HRRR EVEN KEEPS THE FAR SOUTHWEST DRY UNTIL 22Z AND THE IN HOUSE WRF THROUGH 00Z. AN ENSEMBLE OF HI RES MODELS...SPC SSEO...EVEN SHOWS PRECIP STAYING SOUTH OF A MADISON TO LAKE GENEVA LINE THROUGH 00Z AND THEN EVERYONE SEEING PRECIPITATION BY 03Z...WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON MODELS AND RADAR TRENDS TO SEE IF THE PRECIP ARRIVAL NEEDS TO BE DELAYED EVEN MORE. A LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 37 IN KENOSHA AND 23 IN LONE ROCK AND 24 IN SHEBOYGAN. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE DOING A GREAT JOB OF CAPTURING THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. MAY HAVE TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS IN THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...TEMPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CST THU JAN 10 2013/ TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM KICKER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ON THE WEST COAST WILL TAKE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER SW TEXAS ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS...OPEN IT AND LIFT IT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE AS UPPER JET BUCKLES NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S./SRN CANADA IN RESPONSE TO WESTERN TROUGH. FIRST SURGE OF MID-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE...ENHANCED BY 500-300MB DIFF VORT ADVECTION WITH SHEARED VORTICITY IN AXIS OF SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN PLAINS TROUGH...LIFTS ACROSS SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OF 100 MB OR MORE ON FORECAST 280K AND 285K SURFACES UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON SUPPORT LACK OF MOISTURE BELOW 10K FT ON CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT NEEDS TO SATURATE BEFORE ANY PRECIP REACHES THE GROUND. SATURATION WILL BE RAPID AROUND/AFTER 21Z. WILL TREND ONSET OF PCPN FROM SW TO NE WITH LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. PW/S RAPIDLY JUMPING FROM ABOUT 0.25 INCH LATE MORNING TO A MAX AROUND 1.25 INCHES OVERNIGHT...OR 350-400 PCT OF NORMAL...AS GULF MOISTURE FLOWS NWD AHEAD OF SURFACE WAVE. MAX FORCING/OMEGA BRINGS HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE SOUTH AROUND 06Z...AND 09Z TO THE NORTHEAST CWA WITH SOME TALL...SKINNY ELEVATED CAPE PROFILES ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MENTION THUNDER...BUT A RUMBLE OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH SPEED OF 500 MB TROUGH AND TRACK OF VORT MAX IN BASE OF TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE LEADS TO DIFFERING PLACEMENT OF AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. WILL USE A BLEND OF MODEL QPF AMOUNTS WHICH WILL BRING AROUND 1/2 INCH TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UP TO 3/4 INCH IN THE SOUTHEAST...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSE TO AN INCH WITH THE BRIEF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN CONTINUING TO WIND DOWN AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST. KEPT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE MORNING...WITH THINGS TURNING DRY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MAY BE SOME DRIZZLE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE MILD...WITH EXPECTED HIGHS JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW RECORD VALUES. KEPT MENTION OF FOG FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. TOUGH TO KNOW EXACTLY HOW MUCH FOG THERE WILL BE IN THE EAST...ALL DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SNOW IS LEFT BY THEN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE FOG IS DENSE FOR A WHILE...ESPECIALLY AREAS FARTHER WEST WHERE THE SNOW IS DEEPER AND WILL HOLD ON LONGER. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...SO KIND OF A PAIN FIGURING OUT FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS AND SATURDAY HIGHS...AS A CHANGE IN FRONT TIMING WILL IMPACT THESE QUITE A BIT. EITHER WAY THOUGH...WILL EVENTUALLY SEE TEMPS HEAD DOWNWARD SOMETIME SATURDAY MORNING...LIKELY CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN CHILLIER. KEPT CHANCE FOR SNOW SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BRUSH THE AREA. BEST CHANCE LOOKS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A MILWAUKEE TO JANESVILLE LINE. UNLESS THIS SYSTEM COMES FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...WOULD ONLY SEE MAYBE UP TO AN INCH TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER. SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO WIND DOWN QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING. LOOKS DRY THEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH NEAR TO JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. COULD SEE HIGHS WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK. AVIATION/12Z TAFS/... WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH CLOUDS THICKENING/LOWERING...THEN CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY WITH SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND ONSET OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL SETTLE IN AT ALL TAF SITES BY 03Z FRIDAY AND STAY DOWN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EVEN UNTIL 18Z FRI AT KMKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL THE PRECIPITATION TO BE LIQUID. MARINE... SOUTHEAST WINDS STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWEST DECREASE FOR A TIME FRIDAY AS WEAKENING SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH REGION...THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARD REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY...THOUGH IT MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED IF WAVES TO NOT SUBSIDE AS EXPECTED BEFORE WINDS INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ UPDATE...MEB/SM TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DDV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 092209 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 409 PM CST WED JAN 9 2013 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM WINDS WILL DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE CLEAR SKIES WERE ANTICIPATED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO OUR SOUTH. THE CLOUDS...COMBINED WITH WAA WILL ACT TO KEEP OUR LOWS FROM GETTING TOO LOW. AT 925 MB...TEMPS GO FROM A RANGE OF ABOUT -2C TO 3C AT 00Z TO ABOUT 2C TO 6C BY 06Z. RIGHT NOW...THE LAYER OF SURFACE MOISTURE LOOKS TOO SHALLOW FOR FOG TONIGHT...BUT COULD BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM HAVE SLOWED DOWN ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE NAM80 HAS ACTUALLY SPED UP THE ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIP THOUGH. MEANWHILE...THE NAM12 AND CRAS SHOW THE PRECIP HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 21Z. TRENDED TOWARDS THE LATER ARRIVAL AS IT SEEMS TO BE THE CONSENSUS AND THE BETTER FORCING DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER. THE BEST PVA FROM THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE EVENING. 925 TO 850 MB WAA ALSO LOOKS BETTER LATER. HOWEVER...600 TO 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS COULD HELP OUT PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY EVENING. PUT IN A WARMER MODEL FOR TOMORROW AS MOST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY LOWER THAN THE OBSERVED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. DESPITE CLOUDS...THINKING INCREASING WAA WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES A BIT. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE A NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM ERN OK TO THE IL/IN BORDER BY 12Z FRI WHILE THE SFC TROUGH TRACKS INTO SRN WI. LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FRONTOGENESIS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA THU EVENING ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD LGT-MDT RAINFALL. PWS WILL INCREASE TO 1 INCH WITH A QPF CONSENSUS RANGING FROM 0.5 INCHES IN THE FAR WRN CWA TO NEARLY 0.70 INCHES IN THE EAST. RAIN WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE SPOTTY AFTER 09Z ALONG WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE PASSING SFC TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADVECTION FOG ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF MKE THAT STILL HAVE A SNOW COVER. DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRI AM AND WILL INCLUDE IN FORECAST AND HWO. SSWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FOR FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO NE MN BY 12Z SAT. HIGH TEMPS FOR FRI ARE CHALLENGING SINCE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE OCCURRING FRI AFTERNOON BUT CLOUDS MAY REMAIN THE ENTIRE DAY. WENT WITH MID 40S OVER THE EXPECTED SNOW COVER AREAS WITH LOWER 50S IN FAR SE WI. SWLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION TO MAINTAIN MILD TEMPS FOR SAT NT ALTHOUGH COLD FROPA WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA EARLY SAT. COLD FROPA AND COLD ADVECTION TO PREVAIL FOR SAT WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS PERIOD REMAIN UNDER RECORD HIGH TEMPS. .LONG TERM... SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM SMALL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SAT NT AND SUN DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SRN WI BEING ON THE WRN EDGE OF A PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF WI FOR MON AND TUE. SWLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP FOR TUE NT AND WED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EWD ACROSS FAR SRN CANADA. A POLAR AIRMASS WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW MID AFTERNOON. LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO THE AREA AND DAY TIME MIXING DIMINISHES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OFF OF THE LOW HAVE SPREAD INTO THE AREA SOONER THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER...STILL THINKING THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON TOMORROW...WHEN PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST...AT MSN. EXPECTING GUSTS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE LOW APPROACHES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. && .MARINE... A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW OVER JAMES BAY CANADA SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DIMINISH. THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THEN SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE NEARSHORE FOR LATER THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MEB THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GEHRING  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 142132 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 332 PM CST WED NOV 14 2012 .TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MAINLY ZONAL WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES. CLOUDS TODAY WERE PRODUCED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH ONE SHORTWAVE. THERE IS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND PRODUCE SOME MORE WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS ALL OF WI THU AFTERNOON. AGAIN...THERE IS ONLY WEAK 700 MB UPWARD MOTION WITH THESE FEATURES. AS A RESULT EXPECT SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TO BECOME MORE DENSE WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER 700 MB RH. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WEAKER WINDS TONIGHT AND A LITTLE HIGHER DURING THE DAY. 925MB TEMPS AROUND 4C SUGGEST MIN TEMPS FROM 28 TO 33 ASSUMING A WEAK TO MODERATE INVERSION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN THE THICKER CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT...WHICH COULD AFFECT THE MIN TEMP FORECAST. FOR NOW...DROPPED TEMPS QUICKLY IN THE EVENING AND HAD THEM SLOWLY RISE IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT. MAX TEMPS THURSDAY SHOULD REACH 50 TO 53 IN POST PLACES. .THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL JUST BARELY EXTEND INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH THE 500 MB TROUGH. MODELS AGREE THAT WE WILL REMAIN DRY. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AS NVA TAKES OVER...700 MB LIFT/RH DECREASES...AND 850 MB RH DECREASES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MERGES WITH WHAT REMAINS OF THE HIGH CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSING THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY...THEN FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE PERIOD AFTER THAT...WITH A FEW WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED THAT WOULD JUST BRING SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER...MAINLY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY. ECMWF/GFS/GEM 925 MB TEMPS ON FRIDAY WOULD GIVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S RANGE. THE NAM IS SHOWING MORE 925-850 WAA THOUGH...AND THUS HAS HIGHER 925 MB TEMPS. MEANWHILE...THE CRAS IS COOLER. LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF/GFS/GEM SOLUTION THOUGH. THE NAM IS ALSO A BIT WARMER THAN OTHER MODELS ON SATURDAY...BUT WILL LEAN TOWARDS A MORE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION. .MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM. A STRONGER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA ON MONDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE THAN THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF SOME. MEANWHILE...THE GEM LOOKS VERY OVERDONE WITH A MUCH STRONGER CUT OFF LOW STACKED WITH A SURFACE LOW. THE BEST Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS ON TUESDAY...BUT IT ISN/T VERY IMPRESSIVE. THERE IS ALSO A BIT OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...THE GFS HAS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF LOOKS MORE LIKE THAT SOLUTION. THE 00Z ECMWF HAD A MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY LOW LEVELS. PLAN ON MAINLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS FOR AT LEAST THE EVENING. THEN ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AGAIN ON THURSDAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WI FROM 12 TO 18Z THU MORNING THROUGH AND THEN BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT AGAIN THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. AFTER STEADY SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND NORTHERLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND EASTERLY ON FRIDAY. && .MARINE... STEADY SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS AND A DECENT FETCH WERE BUILDING WAVES UP TO 5 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE AREAS FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO SHEBOYGAN THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND VEER SOUTHWEST...WAVES WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO SUBSIDE. WILL MAINTAIN THE ORIGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY END TIME OF 10Z/4AM TONIGHT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LMZ643. && $$ TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MEB  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 011959 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 259 PM CDT MON OCT 1 2012 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM STEADY STRME OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE RIDING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF SE MO/NE AR UPPER LOW. PROGS SHOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM MN INTO NW IA PROGRESSES EAST THOUGH DAMPENS WITH 700 RH DECREASING. MEANWHILE 500 MILLIBAR SHOWS MAINLY SHEARED/CHANNELIZED VORTICITY WITH MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER STAYING WELL SOUTH AND ANY QPF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH INLAND 925 TEMPS FAIRLY PLEASANT SO STILL EXPECTING SOME LOWER 70S. .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO LOW THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z NAM ARE SIMILAR IN BRINGING A CLOSED LOW STRUCTURE INTO ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE NAM IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS STILL FARTHER EAST WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS DUE TO HAVING MAINLY AN OPEN WAVE STRUCTURE. THE 12Z CRAS IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF INITIALLY BUT THEN PULLS THE PRECIPITATION BACK AS THE MID LEVEL LOW AND PRECIPITATION IS THE FARTHEST WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE NAM/GFS FOR NOW...BUT NOT READY TO DISCOUNT THE 00Z ECMWF. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE NAM/GFS...BUT STILL NOT QUITE AS FAR WEST. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO LOW THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL LIFT THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE OFF TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT REACHES THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM/ECMWF ARE JUST A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS STILL THE SLOWEST MODEL WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA DRY AND MUCH WARMER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY. THE NAM IS MORE OF A CONSENSUS. .LONG TERM... .FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THE GFS/ECMWF/06Z DGEX STILL HAVE A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. WITH THE 12Z GFS HAVING A MORE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z DGEX ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. ALL MODELS HAVE THE FORECAST AREA IN COOLER AIR BUT THE 00Z/12 ECMWF IS ALONE WITH LESS OF AN INTRUSION OF COLD AIR...BUT IT ALSO BRINGS LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS DUE TO A STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS ILLINOIS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD A MORE SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT OF THE DGEX AND IS TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE 06Z DGEX. HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF HAS PUSHED THE PRECIPITATION BACK NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO PREFER THE 06Z DGEX. THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A POTENTIAL FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. .SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH A LITTLE EAST INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE ECMWF AND DGEX SHOW A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. WITH THE GFS HAVING THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THE LARGE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AREA WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINNING. MOISTURE WILL BA LACKING SO THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE GFS IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND PREFER THE DRY ECMWF. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR THIS PERIOD WITH DENSE HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FROM UPPER LOW WELL SOUTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME DECREASE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHIFT NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...HENTZ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXHW60 PHFO 200200 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 400 PM HST WED SEP 19 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO FORM THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TRADES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS...MAINLY AT NIGHT...WHILE THE SEA BREEZES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE STATE...BRINGING INCREASING TRADE WINDS TO THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. THE TRADES MAY BE WET ON SUNDAY. && .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...WITH AN IMPULSE DIGGING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF IT. THIS SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST OF MAUI COUNTY...AND IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ABOUT 400 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM LIHUE AND HILO SHOW WEAK INVERSIONS OF 8-10KFT... WHICH ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE 1.2-1.3 INCHES...WHICH ARE ALSO DOWN A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM THIS MORNING. THE RAOBS AND RADAR VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE EAST...BUT LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM 900MB-700MB OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS MOST PRONOUNCED NEAR THE BIG ISLAND...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL STALL AND WEAKEN...BUT NOT BEFORE ERODING THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST AND SHIFTING IT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE STATE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA HAS ALREADY WEAKENED...WITH THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BUOY 51000 TO THE NORTHEAST AND BUOY 51002 TO THE SOUTH HAVING DROPPED BY ABOUT A MILLIBAR OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN WEAK ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES TO FORM AT SHELTERED LEEWARD AREAS TODAY. LAND BREEZES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA... SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZES EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SOMEWHAT MORE UNSTABLE THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. EARLY AFTERNOON AMSU/SSMI BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY MATCHES WITH THE KAUAI SOUNDING...BUT WAS TOO MOIST COMPARED TO THE HILO SOUNDING. EVEN IF THE AMOUNTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGH...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE MOIST AIRMASS WITH EXTENDING NEARLY 400 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. ONE POSSIBILITY THOUGH IS THAT THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE MAY STAY NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...BEING STEERED ACROSS WINDWARD WATERS BY THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE GFS AND TO A LESSOR EXTENT THE NAM DEPICT THIS SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF AND CRAS SHOW GREATER MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS. GIVEN THAT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROTATE INTO MAUI COUNTY...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MOIST SOLUTION WITH HIGHER POPS FOR TONIGHT. RAINFALL WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS... WITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS CLEARING OUT BY SUNSET. WITH AN EVEN LIGHTER GRADIENT EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...SEA BREEZES WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY. THESE WILL FOCUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND LEEWARD SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVE SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE MORNING BEFORE DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED INVERSION AND ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE UPSTREAM...HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WITHOUT A FOCUSING MECHANISM...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT REQUIRE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO REBUILD NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY... BUT REALLY STRENGTHENS FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITION DAY...WITH SEA BREEZES LINGERING ACROSS SHELTERED LEEWARD AREAS. TRADES RETURN FULLY ON SATURDAY...AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THINS OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW IT INCREASING AGAIN BY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. && .AVIATION... EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...BUT BRIEF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR CIGS AND VIS AROUND SHOWERS COULD IMPACT ANY AREAS AROUND HAWAII. CONVECTIVE CURRENTS OVER THE ISLANDS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED POCKETS OF LOW LEVELS TURBULENCE DURING APPROACHES AND TAKEOFFS...AND WILL BE A PRIMARY CONCERN WHILE DAYTIME HEATING OF THE LAND IS OCCURING. NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT GIVEN THE SPARSE COVERAGE OF TURBULENCE AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...BUT WILL BE MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCES OF AIRMET SIERRA AND TANGO. && .MARINE... THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL SLOWLY FADE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL WILL FILL IN FRIDAY/SATURDAY...BEFORE A LARGER ONE ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND. A LOW DEEPENING FAR NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL GENERATE THIS SWELL...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THIS ISLANDS BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BOOST SURF TO ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TRADE WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN TO 25 KT IN THE WINDIER AREAS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI BY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL MAY COMBINE WITH LOCAL WIND WAVES TO GENERATE COMBINED SEAS GREATER THAN 10 FEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST SWELL. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAVENDER AVIATION...FOSTER  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXHW60 PHFO 191959 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 1000 AM HST WED SEP 19 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO FORM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TRADES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS...MAINLY AT NIGHT...WHILE THE SEA BREEZES WILL BRING SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEFLY HEAVY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE STATE...BRINGING STRONGER TRADE WINDS TO THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND. THE TRADES MAY BE WET ON SUNDAY. && .DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...WITH AN IMPULSE DIGGING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF IT. THIS SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER MAUI COUNTY...HAVING HELPED TO ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER OAHU EARLIER IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ABOUT 450 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI. A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM LIHUE AND HILO SHOW WEAK INVERSIONS OF 10-12KFT...AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.3-1.4 INCHES. 16Z-18Z ACARS SOUNDINGS OUT OF HONOLULU ARE SIMILAR TO THE RAOBS AND ALSO SHOW SURFACE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST...BUT LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM 900MB-700MB OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THE COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL STALL AND WEAKEN...BUT NOT BEFORE ERODING THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST AND SHIFTING IT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE STATE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA HAS ALREADY WEAKENED...WITH THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BUOY 51000 TO THE NORTHEAST AND BUOY 51002 TO THE SOUTH HAVING DROPPED BY ABOUT A MILLIBAR OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GRADIENT WAS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LAND BREEZES TO FORM LAST NIGHT AT MANY LOCATIONS...INCLUDING LIHUE/HONOLULU/KAHULUI. LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZES ON THURSDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SOMEWHAT MORE UNSTABLE THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. EARLY MORNING MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWED THE MOIST AIRMASS WITH PW VALUES OF 1.4-1.6 EXTENDING OVER 500 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. ONE CONCERN THOUGH IS THAT THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE MAY STAY NORTHEAST OF THE STATE... BEING STEERED ACROSS WINDWARD WATERS BY THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE 12Z GFS AND TO A LESSOR EXTENT THE NAM DEPICT THIS SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF AND CRAS SHOW GREATER MOISTURE OVER THE ISLANDS. GIVEN THAT THE PW VALUES NEAR KAUAI ARE ALREADY HIGH...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER MOISTURE SOLUTION. WITH THE LIGHT TRADE WIND PATTERN...LEEWARD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE MOST ACTIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE MAY NEED TO UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INCREASE POPS/CLOUDS TO FEATURE MORE LEEWARD SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING AS OFFSHORE DRAINAGE FLOWS BEGIN TO REDEVELOP. SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS WILL BE MOST ACTIVE DURING THE NIGHT AND MORNING...WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE HELPED TO ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE KOOLAUS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... PERSISTENT SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT UNDER THE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WITH THE ELEVATED INVERSIONS AND AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WITHOUT A FOCUSING MECHANISM...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH TO NOT REQUIRE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THE SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO REBUILD NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY... BUT REALLY STRENGTHENS FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A TRANSITION DAY...WITH SEA BREEZES LINGERING ACROSS SHELTERED LEEWARD AREAS. TRADES RETURN FULLY ON SATURDAY...AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER ON SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THINS OUT ON SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW IT INCREASING AGAIN BY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. && .AVIATION... WHILE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL...BRIEF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR CIGS AND VIS AROUND SHOWERS COULD IMPACT ANY AREAS AROUND HAWAII TODAY AND TONIGHT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BUT CONVECTIVE CURRENTS OVER THE ISLANDS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED POCKETS OF LOW LEVELS TURBULENCE DURING APPROACHES AND TAKEOFFS. NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT GIVEN THE SPARSE COVERAGE...BUT WILL BE MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCES FOR AIRMET SIERRA AND TANGO. && .MARINE... SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELLS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH TODAY...WITH SMALL SURF EXPECTED THE REST OF THIS WEEK. A LOW DEEPENING FAR NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS TODAY WILL SEND A NORTHWEST SWELL IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THIS ISLANDS BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY...AND COULD BOOST SURF TO ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE TRADE WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN TO 25 KT IN THE WINDIER AREAS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI BY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE BUILDING NORTHWEST SWELL MAY COMBINE WITH LOCAL WIND WAVES TO GENERATE COMBINED SEAS GREATER THAN 10 FEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST SWELL. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAVENDER AVIATION...FOSTER  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KEKA 231729 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 1029 AM PDT MON JUL 23 2012 .UPDATE...UPDATED THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN TRINITY AND FAR EASTERN MENDOCINO COUNTIES. ADDED ISOLATED LIGHTING STRIKES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE 12Z NAM CAME IN WITH A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAP. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME CAPE MAKING IT OVER THE CAP. THIS MAKES SENSE WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND ROCKY MTNS. SOME ACCUS IS SHOWING UP OVER LAKE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN MENDOCINO COUNTY HINTING AT SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. ALSO THIS AGREES WITH SPC MORNING UPDATE THAT EXTENDED THE 10 PCT THUNDER LINE OVER US. THE CRAS IR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS ENHANCED CLOUD TOPS IN THAT AREA. ALL THAT SAID...DONT EXPECT THERE WILL BE MORE THAN A COUPLE STRIKES IF STORMS DO FORM...HOWEVER WITH DRY FUELS WANTED TO MAKE SURE WE DIDNT MISS IT. MKK && .SYNOPSIS... AFTER A FEW CLOUDS AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR BOTH THE COAST AND INTERIOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING INLAND. && .SHORT TERM... .LONG TERM... && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 AM PDT MON JUL 23 2012/ SYNOPSIS... AFTER A FEW CLOUDS AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR BOTH THE COAST AND INTERIOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING INLAND. UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE ON THE SKY COVER THIS MORNING MAINLY FOR THE MENDOCINO COAST. A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED NORTH TO PT ARENA AND MENDOCINO. STILL EXPECTED TO THIS TO AT LEAST PARTIALLY DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST CRESCENT CITY HAS CLEARED AND EUREKA LOOKS ON TRACK TO CLEAR BY MIDDAY. MKK PREV DISCUSSION... LOCALIZED AREA OF COASTAL STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND THE EEL RIVER VALLEY UP TO ABOUT TRINIDAD. SUSPECT THESE CLOUDS ARE RATHER SHALLOW AND OVERALL COVERAGE IS MUCH LESS THAN PAST MORNINGS WITH WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENT DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE ORCA BORDER. GUIDANCE AND CLIMO WITH THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS MOST OF THE STRATUS SHOULD ERODE FAIRLY QUICKLY...BY MID-MORNING OR SO. THIS SHOULD SET US UP FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT ALTHOUGH NAM/WRF-ARW INDICATE SOME STRATUS CREEPING INTO THE LOWER EEL RIVER VALLEY UP TO SRN HUMBOLDT BAY TUESDAY MORNING. THE OTHER ISSUE MAY BE A COASTAL WIND REVERSAL WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WORKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE MENDOCINO COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD VERY WELL BRING SOME SHALLOW STRATUS TO THE IMMEDIATE MENDOCINO COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING...WHERE WE CURRENTLY ARE FORECASTING CLEAR SKIES. ON WEDNESDAY THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL SWITCH BACK ONSHORE WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW...WHILE THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE PACIFIC HIGH AND THERMAL LOW WEAKENS DRAMATICALLY. THIS WILL ALLOW STRATUS TO RETURN TO MOST OF THE COAST OUTSIDE OF PROTECTED AREAS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDO IN NRLY FLOW. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN THROUGH SATURDAY WITH POOR MIXING ALLOWING FOR DEEP INLAND PENETRATION OF STRATUS AND SLOWER BURN OFF...WITH THE NORTH COAST STAYING MOSTLY CLOUDY EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOONS. BY SUNDAY RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WHICH WILL SUPPRESS THE MARINE LAYER BUT ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN. FOR THE INTERIOR...THIS PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN LOWER RH VALUES AND POORER OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WITH HOT TEMPERATURES. 100 DEGREE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR MANY OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AWAY FROM THE NORTH COAST SO FIRE WX CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMIZED. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND RH WILL RISE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH THE NEXT MARINE PUSH. DRY WX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING SO THAT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS. MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CLIP THE YOLLA BOLLYS AND TRINITY COUNTY TODAY BUT THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL STAY WELL TO THE EAST...EVIDENCED BY THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING NEAR THE SIERRAS. MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT UP HERE WITH MORE SUBSIDENCE AND A MID-LEVEL CAP. WEAK JET STREAK AND SOME MINOR INSTABILITY ALONG WITH SOME DECENT MODIFIED TT VALUES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT STILL EXPECT THERE TO BE A CAP AND OVERALL DRY SOUNDING OUTSIDE OF SHALLOW MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. LONG STORY SHORT...JUST HAVE SOME GHOST POPS FOR NOW. AAD AVIATION...AREA OF LOW CIGS OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS N OF CAPE MENDO AND EXTENDING WELL UP THE EEL RIVER VALLEY HAS REMAINED ABOUT UNCHANGED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS PER IR FOG SAT IMAGERY. KACV SITS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD MASS WITH OVC CIGS BUT NO FOG AS YET. KCEC HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED VSBYS BELOW 1SM IN FOG...POSSIBLY MORE RADIATIONAL THAN ADVECTION DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AS CLOUDS ERODE FAIRLY RAPIDLY ALONG THE INLAND EDGES. /SEC MARINE...HAVE STAYED THE COURSE WITH THE ONGOING GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. DID CHOOSE TO END THE N NEAR SHORE ADVISORY AT THE SAME TIME AS THE N OFFSHORE GALE WARNING. WIND GUSTS IN THE N OFFSHORE ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO 45 KTS...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THRU EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGHER GUSTS ALSO LIKELY SW OF PT ST GEORGE AND CAPE MENDO. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY TUE NIGHT AND WED. /SEC && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY PZZ450. GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY PZZ470. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY PZZ455. GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT TUESDAY PZZ475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KEKA 201050 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 340 AM PDT WED JUN 20 2012 .SYNOPSIS...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING A COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER PATTERN TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE WEST COAST TONIGHT WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL WEST OF THE AREA. THUS CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE CWA. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD RESTRICT COASTAL STRATUS FORMATION TONIGHT...BUT A FEW PATCHY AREAS MAY DEVELOP NEAR HUMBOLDT BAY. AS OF 2AM THE CURRENT TEMP AT WFO EKA IS ALREADY DOWN TO 46 SO WITH CONDITIONS VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT ANOTHER RECORD IS POSSIBLE WITH THE OLD RECORD OF 44F ON THE 20TH LAST SET IN 2003...THE ONLY MONKEY WRENCH FOR THAT TO HAPPEN IS IF THE STRATUS REFORMS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES INLAND ON WEDNESDAY THE STRATUS OFF THE COAST SHOULD SURGE EASTWARD WITH CLOUDY SKIES ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE A NICE WINDOW FOR COASTAL STRATUS...FOG AND DRIZZLE. ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO THUR MORNING ...ADDED THOSE ELEMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A DECENT MARINE PUSH. A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW NEAR 27N 134W WILL BE CAUGHT UP BY AN ADVANCING LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST TOWARD THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY PULLING THE UPPER LOW NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODELS INDICATE THE LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE ON THURSDAY BUT TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES THE CWA. STILL EYEING THURSDAY AND LATE THURSDAY AS A POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ...BUT AXIS OF INSTABILITY DEFINITELY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOKS VERY DRY WITH NO INDICATION OF ANY TAP OF MOISTURE TO AID DEVELOPMENT. PROGGED SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE ALWAYS PRESENT MID LEVEL CAP. CRAS IMAGERY SHOWS NO INDICATION OF ANY DEVELOPMENT AND SPC PERFECT PROG ONLY SHOWS A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1 CG STRIKE. NONETHELESS CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EXTREME EAST SIDE OF THE CWA. ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EKA CWA WILL ULTIMATELY BE CARRIED INTO MFR/STO CWA UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. (SEE FWX DISC BELOW) AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WHEN COOL AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE CWA INCREASING INSTABILITY. THURSDAY NIGHT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PINWHEELING SHORTWAVES AROUND ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY PERIODS EXPECTED BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. GFS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF QPF AND GIVEN THE 564DM LINE FALLS WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA HAVE BUMPED POPS AND QPF UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. RP/JT && .AVIATION...OFFSHORE FLOW IS CREATING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION APPEARS TO BE AN AREA OF IFR STRATUS IN THE EEL RIVER VALLEY...AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AND NORTH TO TRINIDAD. THIS SHOWS UP WELL ON THE 11-3.9 SATELLITE. AS OF 2AM ACV IS SHOWING IFR CIGS. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAKLY OFFSHORE FROM CEC TO MFR SO EXPECT STRATUS MAY BE IN AND OUT THIS MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE EXPECT STRATUS WILL CLEAR FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST WILL STAY MAINLY CLEAR. MODELS SHOW SOME STRATUS ALONG THE COAST SHOWING UP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING. THIS EVENING STRATUS LOOKS TO BRING IFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY BACK INTO THE AREA AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY SPREADING TO THE MAJORITY OF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING THE RETURN OF THE STRATUS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MKK && .MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN WITH AN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS THE WATERS SO ENDED ALL GALES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TAKE THEIR TIME DIMINISHING BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL BY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY DROPS DOWN THE THE COAST AND SITS OVER OREGON BEFORE MOVING OUT ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF DIFFERENT WAVES MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING...HOWEVER THE IMPACT ON THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL. MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT A FEW VARIOUS TIMES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON THE TIMING TO INCLUDE THEM IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. SEAS LOOK TO BE MAINLY LIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW A LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA STARTING ON FRIDAY AND BUILDING TO AROUND 3 FEET AT 16 SECONDS FOR THE WEEKEND. MKK && .FIRE WEATHER... STILL EYEING THURSDAY AND LATE THURSDAY AS A POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF TRINITY COUNTY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOKS VERY DRY WITH NO INDICATION OF ANY TAP OF MOISTURE TO AID DEVELOPMENT. PROGGED SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE ALWAYS PRESENT MID LEVEL CAP. CRAS IMAGERY SHOWS NO INDICATION OF ANY DEVELOPMENT AND SPC PERFECT PROG ONLY SHOWS A 5-10 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1 CG STRIKE. SO AS WE GET CLOSER IT IS LOOKING VERY UNIMPRESSIVE. NONETHELESS CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EXTREME EAST SIDE OF THE CWA. COMING OFF THE HEELS OF DECENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE HOT AND DRY. THUS IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP THEY WILL LIKELY BE DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN OFF THE COAST AND THE AIRMASS WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY AND MOISTEN UP. THIS COOL AND MOIST PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST WELL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TONKIN && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV HTTP://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 302102 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 402 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012 SHORT TERM... .TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE FROM THE DAKOTAS TO WESTERN WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...A WEAK JET STREAK AT 250MB WILL BE POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL SKIM JUST TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS FORCING FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...WITH A MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC BAND STRETCHING FROM WEST TO EAST AND GOOD Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON HOW MUCH THE BEST FORCING WILL EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. CONFIDENT THAT PRECIP WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT IN PRECIP COVERAGE TOWARDS I-94. .TOMORROW...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WISCONSIN...ALLOWING THE CLOUD COVER TO REMAIN AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIP TO CONTINUE. AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS LAKE MICHIGAN...700 MB LIFT SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL ROTATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THERE IS STILL SOME DISCREPANCY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP WILL REACH TOMORROW...WITH THE GEM...SREF...AND CRAS SHOWING SOME PRECIP AT MKE...BUT THE NAM12 KEEPING MKE DRY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW. 925 MB TEMPS SHOW UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60S IN OUR NORTHWEST...AND LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 500 MB LOW MOVES ACROSS THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND REACHES LOWER MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. THE STRONG 700 MB UPWARD MOTION EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH WEAK UPWARD MOTION ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. HIGH 700 MB RH EXTENDS WEST INTO THE EASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN AREA...BUT IS RELATIVELY DRY OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. 850 MB RH AROUND 70 PCT AND AT 950 MB RH IS AROUND 50 PCT. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS OHIO AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. NAM/GFS AND ECMWF ALL KEEP THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH THE HEAVIER RAINS WELL EAST. WILL CONTINUE THE DRIER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND WILL LOWER THEM FROM CURRENT GRIDS. STILL WILL LIKE TO MENTION A SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST...GIVEN THE UPPER LOW LOCATION. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH THE MAIN MID/UPPER TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH WISCONSIN IN THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH. MODELS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN SATURDAY. THIS ALONG WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON SHOWER POTENTIAL WITH RATHER STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 9-10C/KM FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB. THERE APPEARS ENOUGH 850-700 MB MOISTURE FOR THE DIURNAL SHOWERS ALONG WITH CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG ON THE NAM SOUNDINGS. LONG TERM... SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. GFS/ECMWF/DGEX ARE ALL VERY SIMILAR IN KEEPING A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN REMAINS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A LARGE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE PLAINS. ON MONDAY A SHORTWAVE ROTATION AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH CLIPS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN WITH A SECOND TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 9.5 C/KM REMAIN SUNDAY...BUT GRADUALLY BECOME MORE STABLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH DRIER MID LEVELS. THEREFORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVER TIME THIS PATTERN GRADUALLY MOVES EAST ON THE GFS/DGEX WITH THE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWER MVFR CLOUDS CURRENTLY AT MKE AND ENW ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP WITH THE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT/TOMORROW...MAINLY AT MSN AND ENW...WHERE THERE IS THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP. WINDS HAVE TURNED MORE NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TOWARDS EASTERLY TONIGHT. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF PERIOD IS JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP WILL GET TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MEB THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HENTZ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KEKA 231039 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 332 AM PDT WED MAY 23 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR MORE SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE NORTH COAST. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NORTH COAST WILL ARRIVE LATER LATER THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO MENDOCINO COUNTY FRIDAY. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK UNDER WEAK ONSHORE FLOW MAINTAINING SOME WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES LEADING INTO THIS MORNING. ANTICIPATE THE CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE GIVING RISE TO SOME BREAKS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING ANYMORE RAINFALL TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TOMORROW AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL LACK MOISTURE AND MUCH OF A SFC REFLECTION ALONG THE COAST BUT WILL CARRY PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT. BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW AND LF QUAD OF A JET STREAK SWINGING SOUTHWARD MAY GIVE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ITS BEST SHOT OF SOME RAIN LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING AND INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE FOR FRIDAY...WHICH WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS MENDOCINO COUNTY. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS MINIMAL AS MID TO UPPER FLOW WORKS FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH. THIS IS GENERALLY A POOR DIRECTION CLIMATICALLY FOR TSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS LAND PORTIONS OF NW CA. PERFECT PROG ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT A 10% CHANCE OF A STRIKE OR TWO ON FRIDAY BUT THAT IS ACROSS OUR EASTERN FRINGES. CRAS IMAGERY GIVES NO HINTS AT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. BEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND SIERRA...THUS KEPT TSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST. ONCE THIS FEATURE EXITS TO THE EAST...A FLATTENING RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NORTHERLY FLOW TENDING ONSHORE LEADING TO WARMER TEMPS INLAND AND OVERNIGHT/AM LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST. LONGER RANGE PATTERN HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY VERY WARM AND DRY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH PERHAPS MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW. AAD/JT && .AVIATION...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT VALLEYS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH OF THE CAPE. CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED INTO VFR THIS MORNING WHICH IS COUNTER TO MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH WANT IFR CONDITIONS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS OFF THE COAST AND THESE COULD LOWER CIGS FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING NORTH OF THE CAPE. OTHERWISE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT TODAY SHOULD ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE...OR REDEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...THROUGH THE DAY. A NEW SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT UKI. RPA && .MARINE...AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL STRENGTHEN. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOUTH OF THE CAPE TODAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AN UPPER LOW WILL CUT OFF OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTENSIFYING THE NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN NEAR GALE CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL WATERS. A GALE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED TODAY TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY. A NORTHWEST SWELL NEAR 7 FT AT 10 SECONDS COMBINED WITH BUILDING SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL RESULT IN COMBINED SEAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BETWEEN 12 AND 15 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODELS INDICATE A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC LEADING TO CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS. RPA && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... SCA NOON WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM PDT SATURDAY PZZ455. SCA NOON WEDNESDAY TO 10 PM PDT SUNDAY PZZ475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 102004 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 304 PM CDT TUE APR 10 2012 .SHORT TERM... .TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA. THIS DECK SUPPORTED BY WEAK INSTABILITY/MOISTURE AROUND 5000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BACK EDGE OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...THEN SOUTH DURING THE EVENING. DOWNWARD MOTION WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER IN THE EAST THIS EVENING...BEFORE FINALLY MIXING OUT LATE TONIGHT. MAY SEE AREA OF CLOUDS TRY TO HANG ON NEAR THE LAKE...BUT LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BULK OF ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WOULD STAY OFFSHORE. WESTERN END OF ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM MAY BRUSH THE AREA WITH SOME CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING AS WELL. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WITHIN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING WILL LINGER UNTIL EARLY EVENING AS WELL. PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD NOT DECOUPLE. CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST SHOULD ALLOW LOWS TO FALL TO 28 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT OR LOWER...SO WENT WITH A FREEZE WARNING FOR GREEN LAKE TO ROCK COUNTIES AND WEST FROM 06Z TO 14Z WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS IN THE EAST LEFT MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR LOWS TO REACH THAT THRESHOLD...SO LEFT THOSE AREAS OUT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER. SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WINDS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE NEAR THE LAKE BY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S...WITH 50S INLAND PER 925MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND FROM MINNESOTA TO MISSOURI ON THURSDAY. NAM/GFS AND 12Z CRAS ALL TAKES A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE DEPARTING NORTHWEST FLOW. ONLY THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. SOME FROST/FREEZING POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER THE NAM THEN SETS UP A SLIGHT LAND BREEZE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE THERE WILL BE ONE MORE NIGHT WITH A FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. .THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ALL MODELS PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN TAKING PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THURSDAY NIGHT. PREFER THE NAM/ECMWF IN AT BEST REACHING AREAS SOUTHWEST OF MADISON AROUND SUNRISE. ONLY THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE SHEBOYGAN AREA DRY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE OTHER MODELS BRINGING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE 850 MB JET BRINGS 10C 850 MB DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS STILL A LITTLE FASTER IN PUSHING A SURFACE LOW INTO MINNESOTA WITH THE NAM/ECMWF AND DEGEX ALL SLOWER AND WEAKER AND IS PREFERED. ELEVATED CAPE OF AROUND 60 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON IF LIFTED FROM 5 THSD FT. PREFER MAINLY RAIN AT THIS POINT WITH LOW THUNDER POTENTIAL. .LONG TERM... .SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BOTH THE 12Z GFS/06Z DGEX AND 00Z ECMWF ESTABLISH A MID/UPPER TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. NORTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS EVENTUALLY ESTABLISH A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR NEW MEXICO. THE 12Z GFS KEEPS THE MAIN MID LEVEL LOW OFF TO THE WEST NEAR FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z DGEX PUSHES THE UPPER LOW A LITTLE FASTER WITH A TROUGH PUSHING TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PREFER THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW ON THE 00Z ECMWF...REACHING FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE 12Z GFS...THAT HAS THE LOW REACHING FAR EASTERN QUEBEC. THE 06Z DGEX IS EVEN SLOWER WITH A WEAKER LOW NEAR THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER. APPEARS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES...WITH THE RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MORE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER AT TAF SITES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT MADISON...BEFORE MIXING OUT LATER THIS EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THEN EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE SOME SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP. EASTERN TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR CEILINGS LINGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN SLOWLY SCATTER OUT BY LATER TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS...THOUGH THINK MOST OF THESE CLOUDS SHOULD STAY OUT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH EASTERLY FLOW MAY PUSH THESE MORE INLAND. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET...WITH GUSTS UP TO 27 KNOTS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN VEER NORTH WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THESE WINDS WILL VEER NORTHEAST TO EAST AT THE EASTERN SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. && .MARINE... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND HIGH WAVES TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 02Z WEDNESDAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE UNTIL SUNSET...WITH THE GUSTS SUBSIDING WITH NIGHTFALL. 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES LINGER TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ046-047- 056-057-062-063-067>069. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...HENTZ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 262115 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 315 PM CST THU JAN 26 2012 .SHORT TERM... .TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH CLOUDY SKIES WILL HANG ON INTO THE EVENING...WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING AS SHORTWAVE EXITS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A COUPLE MODELS SHOWING SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP THIS EVENING TIED WITH SHORTWAVE...BUT OPTED TO REMOVE MENTION OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES GIVEN WEAK LIFT...UNIMPRESSIVE SOUNDINGS...AND VERY WEAK RADAR RETURNS UPSTREAM. SKIES SHOULD START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SNOW WITH NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM LIKELY MOVING INTO AREAS WEST OF MADISON BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME SUN EXPECTED FOR A TIME...WENT MID 30S MOST PLACES...TO UPPER 30S FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE THE SUN WILL SHINE THE LONGEST. FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. MODELS BRING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TIMING OF THE TROUGH IS AGAIN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE AND ALL SPREAD QPF ACROSS ALL OF FORECAST AREA FROM 6PM CST TO MIDNIGHT..WITH VERY LIGHT QPF AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE 12Z CRAS HAS A MUCH WEAKER TROUGH AND IN GENERAL LIGHTER QPF MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH...EXCEPT FOR A SPURIOUS PRECIP MAX OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. NAM PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 0.40 INCHES WITH INGREDIENTS BASED TECHNIQUE SOWING MODERATE Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE IN THE 850 MB AND 700 MB LAYER WITH 2 G/KG PUSHING INTO THE FAR SOUTH PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 6PM FRIDAY AT 700. THE NAM 285K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS UPWARD ISENTROPIC OMEGA OF 3 UBARS/SEC WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS OF LESS THAN 10 MB. ALTHOUGH THE BEST LIFT OCCURS BEFORE SATURATION. GFS PAINTS MORE PRECIP EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH DUE TO MORE DYNAMICS/MORE MOISTURE...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM HAS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF QPF. STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE APPEARS RATHER STRONG FOR THE MEAGER QPF. SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY WHILE A SECOND LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARD NORTHEAST IOWA ON THE 12Z GFS AND NAM. ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS AGAIN BEFORE SATURATION...AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE NOT AS LOW. MODELS GENERATE AROUND 0.05 OF QPF LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. .LONG TERM... SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z/12Z ECMWF GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. THIS WOULD BE LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY BUT THEN WOULD LIKELY TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE. IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING FAR SOUTH THEN JUST DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCES IN 12Z GFS AND 00Z/12Z ECMWF WITH THE ECMWF TAKING A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND QUICKER THAN THE GFS. THIS LEADS TO THICKNESS ADVECTION PATTERNS BEING OUT OF PHASE...ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION TIMING DIFFERENCES. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... CONDITIONS STILL RANGING FROM LIFR TO IFR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A FEW MVFR REPORTS...AS STRATUS LINGERS ACROSS SRN WI. CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO SUBSTANTIALLY IMPROVE UNTIL THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA AND RETURN THINGS TO VFR. QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THEN FRIDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BEFORE MID LEVEL CLOUDS ROLL IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY WEST OF MADISON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. SNOW THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS NORTHWEST WINDS PICKUP BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS FRIDAY EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING WINDS BEHIND THE LOW LATER IN THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WEST WINDS WILL THEN LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT LEVELS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HENTZ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KTAE 041502 AAA AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 958 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2012 .DISCUSSION...We experienced our first hard freeze of the winter season across the region this morning with low temperatures ranging from the upper teens to middle 20s. A few record temperatures were tied including Tallahassee with a low of 18 and Apalachicola at 26 degrees. This was our coldest morning since January 14th of last year. Our temperatures will rebound into the mid 50s this afternoon with only a few cirrus late in the day. We will update zones shortly only to remove the hard freeze headline after the warning expires. && .MARINE...Winds and seas will remain very light through today. Offshore winds will increase slightly tonight in the wake of a weak cold front. However, winds and seas will remain below headline criteria. Onshore flow will develop by this weekend with winds still expected to remain below headline levels. && .AVIATION (through 12z Thursday)...The 06z set of TAFs still looks in good shape and only minor tweaks were made to the wind direction. The previous discussion is as follows: most models do show an increase in mid-upper level humidity towards the 00-06z Thursday time frame and CRAS model simulated cloud cover shows a slight increase from the W/NW this evening. Therefore, some scattered high clouds were added after 00z. Other than that, plenty of sunshine is expected with light winds. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS(630 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2012)... .SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)... While the deep upper trough continues to pull northeast and away from the region, cold high pressure remains parked over the deep south with a hard freeze in progress across the forecast area. Thicknesses will be on the rise today with temperatures recovering into the mid 50s. A shortwave trough will help to reinforce the mean trough over the eastern states tonight. However, no additional cold air is expected with the associated weak sfc front. With the gradient still very weak tonight, expect temperatures to drop back near the freezing mark. Coldest temperatures are expected over the eastern zones where winds should fully decouple. A more substantial warming trend will begin Thursday as an upper ridge builds over the Southeast. High temperatures should reach the mid 60s on Thursday and the upper 60s for Friday. Low temperatures Friday morning should stay above freezing, reaching the mid to upper 30s. .LONG TERM (Friday Night through next Wednesday)... There will be an interesting evolution from a weak and generally zonal flow pattern at the beginning of the long term period towards a highly amplified flow pattern with a western ridge and eastern trough just beyond the scope of this forecast period. Oddly enough, the majority of deterministic and ensemble solutions indicate the deep trough over the eastern U.S. by next Thursday and Friday, but there is a high degree of variability in how we "get from point A to point B". The few upper level shortwaves that will be ejecting east along the Gulf Coast region in the subtropical jet stream should be deamplifying as they approach the Atlantic, which does not inspire a lot of confidence in any significant frontal passages or rainfall. Additionally, these shortwaves will be originating from closed or cutoff upper level lows over the southern Plains with fairly regular wave breaking over the CONUS. Timing the ejection of cutoff upper level lows is very tricky (particularly more than a few days into the future), and thus it isn't too surprising to see the model differences that have emerged. Rising heights and a building upper level ridge are expected along the Pacific Coast this weekend as an enhanced East Asian Jet extends past the International Date Line. In conjunction, broad and low amplitude troughiness is expected to develop downstream over the central and eastern United States. A surface low associated with the northern jet stream will track east near the Canadian border, gradually dragging a cold front southeast across the eastern CONUS. This front will be slow to approach from the northwest and traverse the forecast area. PoPs were introduced from west to east on Friday Night. Models disagree on exact timing from there, but the general theme is southeast progression of the cold front with high pressure and a drier air mass building in afterwards early next week. Thus, PoPs were gradually tapered off from NW to SE late Sunday. Northerly flow and dry weather were forecast on Monday and Tuesday, with winds gradually swinging back around to the southeast with increasing PoPs by Wednesday ahead of the next approaching trough. We may see another cool down towards the end of the week given model consistency in developing a deep east coast upper level trough. && .FIRE WEATHER...No changes were made to the inherited Red Flag Warning distribution or timing. Current grids call for about 5hr durations of RH below 25% in our SE Alabama zones, and about 6-7hr durations in our SW Georgia zones. While winds and Dispersions will be low today, any Florida county that has ERC values over 35 should easily attain red flag criteria. For now, the forecast ERC is only over 35 in Leon and Wakulla Counties. This is where the existing RF.W was, so no changes were made. Forecast minimum RH values are right around 38-40% on Thursday. Dispersions are forecast to be higher (75-90) east of the Apalachicola River, so if subsequent forecasts are drier with RH for Thursday it could warrant a fire weather headline. Moisture will increase after Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 54 32 66 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 10 Panama City 55 43 65 47 67 / 0 0 10 0 10 Dothan 55 36 63 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 Albany 54 31 63 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 53 30 63 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 Cross City 54 29 67 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 53 40 64 45 65 / 0 0 10 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 4 PM CST this afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. GA...Red Flag Warning from Noon today to 5 PM EST this afternoon for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook- Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes- Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas- Tift-Turner-Worth. FL...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for Coastal Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon. GM...None. && $$ Camp/Lamers/Barry  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KTAE 040911 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 411 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2012 .SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)... While the deep upper trough continues to pull northeast and away from the region, cold high pressure remains parked over the deep south with a hard freeze in progress across the forecast area. Thicknesses will be on the rise today with temperatures recovering into the mid 50s. A shortwave trough will help to reinforce the mean trough over the eastern states tonight. However, no additional cold air is expected with the associated weak sfc front. With the gradient still very weak tonight, expect temperatures to drop back near the freezing mark. Coldest temperatures are expected over the eastern zones where winds should fully decouple. A more substantial warming trend will begin Thursday as an upper ridge builds over the Southeast. High temperatures should reach the mid 60s on Thursday and the upper 60s for Friday. Low temperatures Friday morning should stay above freezing, reaching the mid to upper 30s. .LONG TERM (Friday Night through next Wednesday)... There will be an interesting evolution from a weak and generally zonal flow pattern at the beginning of the long term period towards a highly amplified flow pattern with a western ridge and eastern trough just beyond the scope of this forecast period. Oddly enough, the majority of deterministic and ensemble solutions indicate the deep trough over the eastern U.S. by next Thursday and Friday, but there is a high degree of variability in how we "get from point A to point B". The few upper level shortwaves that will be ejecting east along the Gulf Coast region in the subtropical jet stream should be deamplifying as they approach the Atlantic, which does not inspire a lot of confidence in any significant frontal passages or rainfall. Additionally, these shortwaves will be originating from closed or cutoff upper level lows over the southern Plains with fairly regular wave breaking over the CONUS. Timing the ejection of cutoff upper level lows is very tricky (particularly more than a few days into the future), and thus it isn't too surprising to see the model differences that have emerged. Rising heights and a building upper level ridge are expected along the Pacific Coast this weekend as an enhanced East Asian Jet extends past the International Date Line. In conjunction, broad and low amplitude troughiness is expected to develop downstream over the central and eastern United States. A surface low associated with the northern jet stream will track east near the Canadian border, gradually dragging a cold front southeast across the eastern CONUS. This front will be slow to approach from the northwest and traverse the forecast area. PoPs were introduced from west to east on Friday Night. Models disagree on exact timing from there, but the general theme is southeast progression of the cold front with high pressure and a drier air mass building in afterwards early next week. Thus, PoPs were gradually tapered off from NW to SE late Sunday. Northerly flow and dry weather were forecast on Monday and Tuesday, with winds gradually swinging back around to the southeast with increasing PoPs by Wednesday ahead of the next approaching trough. We may see another cooldown towards the end of the week given model consistency in developing a deep east coast upper level trough. && .AVIATION (through 06z Thursday)...No major changes were made to the inherited set of TAFs. Most models do show an increase in mid-upper level humidity towards the 00-06z Thursday timeframe and CRAS model simulated cloud cover shows a slight increase from the W/NW this evening. Therefore, some scattered high clouds were added after 00z. Other than that, plenty of sunshine is expected with light winds. && .MARINE...Winds and seas will remain very light through today. Offshore winds will increase slightly tonight in the wake of a weak cold front. However, winds and seas will remain below headline criteria. Onshore flow will develop by this weekend with winds still expected to remain below headline levels. && .FIRE WEATHER...No changes were made to the inherited Red Flag Warning distribution or timing. Current grids call for about 5hr durations of RH below 25% in our SE Alabama zones, and about 6-7hr durations in our SW Georgia zones. While winds and Dispersions will be low today, any Florida county that has ERC values over 35 should easily attain red flag criteria. For now, the forecast ERC is only over 35 in Leon and Wakulla Counties. This is where the existing RF.W was, so no changes were made. Forecast minimum RH values are right around 38-40% on Thursday. Dispersions are forecast to be higher (75-90) east of the Apalachicola River, so if subsequent forecasts are drier with RH for Thursday it could warrant a fire weather headline. Moisture will increase after Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 54 32 66 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 10 Panama City 55 43 65 47 67 / 0 0 10 0 10 Dothan 55 36 63 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 Albany 54 31 63 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 53 30 63 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 Cross City 54 29 67 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 53 40 64 45 65 / 0 0 10 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for Coffee-Dale- Geneva-Henry-Houston. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 4 PM CST this afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. GA...Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur- Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller- Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift- Turner-Worth. Red Flag Warning from Noon today to 5 PM EST this afternoon for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook- Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes- Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas- Tift-Turner-Worth. FL...Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor- Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie- Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor- Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty- Madison-South Walton-Washington. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for Coastal Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon. GM...None. && $$ Camp/Lamers  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KTAE 041129 AAA AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 630 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2012 Updated most recently for the Aviation Discussion. .SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)... While the deep upper trough continues to pull northeast and away from the region, cold high pressure remains parked over the deep south with a hard freeze in progress across the forecast area. Thicknesses will be on the rise today with temperatures recovering into the mid 50s. A shortwave trough will help to reinforce the mean trough over the eastern states tonight. However, no additional cold air is expected with the associated weak sfc front. With the gradient still very weak tonight, expect temperatures to drop back near the freezing mark. Coldest temperatures are expected over the eastern zones where winds should fully decouple. A more substantial warming trend will begin Thursday as an upper ridge builds over the Southeast. High temperatures should reach the mid 60s on Thursday and the upper 60s for Friday. Low temperatures Friday morning should stay above freezing, reaching the mid to upper 30s. .LONG TERM (Friday Night through next Wednesday)... There will be an interesting evolution from a weak and generally zonal flow pattern at the beginning of the long term period towards a highly amplified flow pattern with a western ridge and eastern trough just beyond the scope of this forecast period. Oddly enough, the majority of deterministic and ensemble solutions indicate the deep trough over the eastern U.S. by next Thursday and Friday, but there is a high degree of variability in how we "get from point A to point B". The few upper level shortwaves that will be ejecting east along the Gulf Coast region in the subtropical jet stream should be deamplifying as they approach the Atlantic, which does not inspire a lot of confidence in any significant frontal passages or rainfall. Additionally, these shortwaves will be originating from closed or cutoff upper level lows over the southern Plains with fairly regular wave breaking over the CONUS. Timing the ejection of cutoff upper level lows is very tricky (particularly more than a few days into the future), and thus it isn't too surprising to see the model differences that have emerged. Rising heights and a building upper level ridge are expected along the Pacific Coast this weekend as an enhanced East Asian Jet extends past the International Date Line. In conjunction, broad and low amplitude troughiness is expected to develop downstream over the central and eastern United States. A surface low associated with the northern jet stream will track east near the Canadian border, gradually dragging a cold front southeast across the eastern CONUS. This front will be slow to approach from the northwest and traverse the forecast area. PoPs were introduced from west to east on Friday Night. Models disagree on exact timing from there, but the general theme is southeast progression of the cold front with high pressure and a drier air mass building in afterwards early next week. Thus, PoPs were gradually tapered off from NW to SE late Sunday. Northerly flow and dry weather were forecast on Monday and Tuesday, with winds gradually swinging back around to the southeast with increasing PoPs by Wednesday ahead of the next approaching trough. We may see another cooldown towards the end of the week given model consistency in developing a deep east coast upper level trough. && .AVIATION (through 12z Thursday)...The 06z set of TAFs still looks in good shape and only minor tweaks were made to the wind direction. The previous discussion is as follows: most models do show an increase in mid-upper level humidity towards the 00-06z Thursday timeframe and CRAS model simulated cloud cover shows a slight increase from the W/NW this evening. Therefore, some scattered high clouds were added after 00z. Other than that, plenty of sunshine is expected with light winds. && .MARINE...Winds and seas will remain very light through today. Offshore winds will increase slightly tonight in the wake of a weak cold front. However, winds and seas will remain below headline criteria. Onshore flow will develop by this weekend with winds still expected to remain below headline levels. && .FIRE WEATHER...No changes were made to the inherited Red Flag Warning distribution or timing. Current grids call for about 5hr durations of RH below 25% in our SE Alabama zones, and about 6-7hr durations in our SW Georgia zones. While winds and Dispersions will be low today, any Florida county that has ERC values over 35 should easily attain red flag criteria. For now, the forecast ERC is only over 35 in Leon and Wakulla Counties. This is where the existing RF.W was, so no changes were made. Forecast minimum RH values are right around 38-40% on Thursday. Dispersions are forecast to be higher (75-90) east of the Apalachicola River, so if subsequent forecasts are drier with RH for Thursday it could warrant a fire weather headline. Moisture will increase after Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 54 32 66 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 10 Panama City 55 43 65 47 67 / 0 0 10 0 10 Dothan 55 36 63 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 Albany 54 31 63 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 53 30 63 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 Cross City 54 29 67 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 53 40 64 45 65 / 0 0 10 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for Coffee-Dale- Geneva-Henry-Houston. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 4 PM CST this afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. GA...Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur- Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller- Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift- Turner-Worth. Red Flag Warning from Noon today to 5 PM EST this afternoon for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook- Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes- Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas- Tift-Turner-Worth. FL...Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor- Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie- Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor- Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty- Madison-South Walton-Washington. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for Coastal Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon. GM...None. && $$ Camp/Lamers  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KTAE 040911 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 411 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2012 .SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)... While the deep upper trough continues to pull northeast and away from the region, cold high pressure remains parked over the deep south with a hard freeze in progress across the forecast area. Thicknesses will be on the rise today with temperatures recovering into the mid 50s. A shortwave trough will help to reinforce the mean trough over the eastern states tonight. However, no additional cold air is expected with the associated weak sfc front. With the gradient still very weak tonight, expect temperatures to drop back near the freezing mark. Coldest temperatures are expected over the eastern zones where winds should fully decouple. A more substantial warming trend will begin Thursday as an upper ridge builds over the Southeast. High temperatures should reach the mid 60s on Thursday and the upper 60s for Friday. Low temperatures Friday morning should stay above freezing, reaching the mid to upper 30s. .LONG TERM (Friday Night through next Wednesday)... There will be an interesting evolution from a weak and generally zonal flow pattern at the beginning of the long term period towards a highly amplified flow pattern with a western ridge and eastern trough just beyond the scope of this forecast period. Oddly enough, the majority of deterministic and ensemble solutions indicate the deep trough over the eastern U.S. by next Thursday and Friday, but there is a high degree of variability in how we "get from point A to point B". The few upper level shortwaves that will be ejecting east along the Gulf Coast region in the subtropical jet stream should be deamplifying as they approach the Atlantic, which does not inspire a lot of confidence in any significant frontal passages or rainfall. Additionally, these shortwaves will be originating from closed or cutoff upper level lows over the southern Plains with fairly regular wave breaking over the CONUS. Timing the ejection of cutoff upper level lows is very tricky (particularly more than a few days into the future), and thus it isn't too surprising to see the model differences that have emerged. Rising heights and a building upper level ridge are expected along the Pacific Coast this weekend as an enhanced East Asian Jet extends past the International Date Line. In conjunction, broad and low amplitude troughiness is expected to develop downstream over the central and eastern United States. A surface low associated with the northern jet stream will track east near the Canadian border, gradually dragging a cold front southeast across the eastern CONUS. This front will be slow to approach from the northwest and traverse the forecast area. PoPs were introduced from west to east on Friday Night. Models disagree on exact timing from there, but the general theme is southeast progression of the cold front with high pressure and a drier air mass building in afterwards early next week. Thus, PoPs were gradually tapered off from NW to SE late Sunday. Northerly flow and dry weather were forecast on Monday and Tuesday, with winds gradually swinging back around to the southeast with increasing PoPs by Wednesday ahead of the next approaching trough. We may see another cooldown towards the end of the week given model consistency in developing a deep east coast upper level trough. && .AVIATION (through 06z Thursday)...No major changes were made to the inherited set of TAFs. Most models do show an increase in mid-upper level humidity towards the 00-06z Thursday timeframe and CRAS model simulated cloud cover shows a slight increase from the W/NW this evening. Therefore, some scattered high clouds were added after 00z. Other than that, plenty of sunshine is expected with light winds. && .MARINE...Winds and seas will remain very light through today. Offshore winds will increase slightly tonight in the wake of a weak cold front. However, winds and seas will remain below headline criteria. Onshore flow will develop by this weekend with winds still expected to remain below headline levels. && .FIRE WEATHER...No changes were made to the inherited Red Flag Warning distribution or timing. Current grids call for about 5hr durations of RH below 25% in our SE Alabama zones, and about 6-7hr durations in our SW Georgia zones. While winds and Dispersions will be low today, any Florida county that has ERC values over 35 should easily attain red flag criteria. For now, the forecast ERC is only over 35 in Leon and Wakulla Counties. This is where the existing RF.W was, so no changes were made. Forecast minimum RH values are right around 38-40% on Thursday. Dispersions are forecast to be higher (75-90) east of the Apalachicola River, so if subsequent forecasts are drier with RH for Thursday it could warrant a fire weather headline. Moisture will increase after Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 54 32 66 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 10 Panama City 55 43 65 47 67 / 0 0 10 0 10 Dothan 55 36 63 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 Albany 54 31 63 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 53 30 63 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 10 Cross City 54 29 67 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 10 Apalachicola 53 40 64 45 65 / 0 0 10 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for Coffee-Dale- Geneva-Henry-Houston. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 4 PM CST this afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston. GA...Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur- Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller- Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift- Turner-Worth. Red Flag Warning from Noon today to 5 PM EST this afternoon for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook- Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes- Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas- Tift-Turner-Worth. FL...Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor- Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie- Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor- Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty- Madison-South Walton-Washington. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM EST this evening for Coastal Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon. GM...None. && $$ Camp/Lamers  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 182054 AAA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 453 PM CDT TUE OCT 18 2011 .VERY SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE SHOWING UP ON THE TWIN CITIES...LACROSSE AND GREEN BAY RADARS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI PRECIP LOOKS TIED TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL WI...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO OHIO ON WEDNESDAY...AND SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AND LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CRAS MODEL...AN OUTLIER...HAS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LOW ON WED...BUT MAKES IT INTO A DOUBLE BARREL LOW WITH THE WESTERN PART MOVING UP THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE MICHIGAN THU AND THU NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE STEADILY INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS COULD POTENTIALLY REACH WIND ADVISORY AND HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA AS EARLY AS MID WED AFTERNOON. WINDS ALONG THE LAKE WILL BE STRONGEST...AND WINDS WELL INLAND NEAR LONE ROCK WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG...POSSIBLY NOT EVEN IN THE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AREA. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SPREAD INLAND TO THE LAKESHORE AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AS BEST DEPICTED BY THE REGIONAL CANADIAN MODEL. THESE SHOWERS ARE SUPPORTED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED LIFT FROM UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN IL/WESTERN KY BORDER. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE AND LIFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST WI WED AFTERNOON...SO BUMPED UP POPS A BIT. .SHORT TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. STRENGTH OF WINDS ARE THE KEY IN THIS PERIOD...AND THEN HOW QUICKLY WINDS DIMINISH AND PRECIPITATION EXITS EAST WITH WEAKENING LOW THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW DEEPEST AND MOST COMPACT AT 06Z THURSDAY...986-987MB OVER EASTERN INDIANA...THEN BROADENS AS SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES AS STRONG VORT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET MAX MOVES UP EASTERN FLANK OF CLOSED LOW...WHICH REACHES THE EASTERN LAKES BY 00Z FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC BY 12Z FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST...TO FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN GETS INTO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH KENOSHA...MILWAUKEE AND SHEBOYGAN BUFKIT PROFILES SHOWING 45-50KT WINDS WITHIN 1K FT OF SURFACE FROM 21-22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF TO 30-35 KTS AT KMSN AND BLUE RIVER IN A SHORTER WINDOW FROM 06Z TO 12Z THURSDAY. WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND DEEPER MIXING OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE LAKE...HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE LAKE SHORE COUNTIES LOOK REASONABLE AND AS SUCH WILL BE ISSUING A HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SHEBOYGAN TO KENOSHA COUNTIES...AND FOR WASHINGTON AND WAUKESHA COUNTIES DUE TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF BOTH COUNTIES...FROM 22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY...BUT WILL LEAVE FOR THE NEXT SHIFTS TO DECIPHER LATER GUIDANCE FOR EXACT LOCATION OF ADVISORY VS HIGH WIND WARNING. PERIODS OF SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FAR EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH STRONGEST LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE PRECIPITATION...WITH LIKELY POPS WEST TO MADISON AND MONROE... TAPERING TO CHANCE POPS IN WESTERN COUNTIES. FORCING SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY EVENING...WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL SLOWLY EASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SLACKENING GRADIENT AS SURFACE LOW CENTER RE-FORMS OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...PRIME RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD FROST OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... WITH AREAS OF FROST EVEN TOWARD THE WARMER LAKE DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW. RIDGING BRINGS A QUIET DAY FRIDAY...WITH 925 MB TEMPS SUPPORTING MID 50S HIGHS. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM. WEAK WAVES IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH SPOTTY PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF FORECAST AREA WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION SATURDAY...MAINLY ON THE 00Z ECMWF OVER NRN ILLINOIS. TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AS STRONGER WAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WELL REFLECTED IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND WILL BE KEPT. A BREAK MONDAY...THEN CHANCE POPS RETURN TUESDAY WITH BROAD TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE SECTIONS OF THE U.S...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND FORCING FOCUS. WESTERLY FLOW MODERATES TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE...SEASONAL NORMALS. && .AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF MADISON AS DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION SAGS INTO SOUTHWEST WI. MEANWHILE...DRIER AIR OVER NORTHERN WI AND LAKE MICHIGAN IS HOLDING OFF THE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS IN MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE MVFR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER KENOSHA AND SOUTHWARD. THERE WILL BE A DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN THE MOIST AND DRY AIR MASSES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT. THEN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL SPREAD PRECIP AND INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHEAST WI OVERNIGHT. THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL RESULT IN CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR INLAND AND IFR NEAR THE LAKE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SHRA DEVELOPING IN THE EAST. IN ADDITION TO THE SYNOPTIC FORCING...LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE FROM THE BACKING WINDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS LIKELY UP THE LAKESHORE TO SHEBOYGAN AND NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE INCREASING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY WED AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH. MKE/RAC WILL BE ESPECIALLY AFFECTED BY THESE STRONG WINDS SINCE THEY ARE CLOSEST TO THE LAKE...AND MWC/UES/ENW WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS. && .MARINE... LOW PRESSURE UNDERGOES RAPID DEEPENING OVER TN AND OH VALLEYS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS OHIO...NORTHWEST INDIANA AND LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...RESULTING IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THU MRNG BEFORE LOOSENING. STEADY GALE FORCE WINDS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SURFACE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING FROM WED EVENING THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING. LAKE-ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR WIZ052-059-060-065-066-071-072. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...REM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KEKA 071108 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 408 AM PDT WED SEP 7 2011 .SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO TOMORROW BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO NW CALIFORNIA. IT WILL ALSO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO TRINITY COUNTY ON THU. STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON FRI AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHARP INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE REGION ON SAT. && .DISCUSSION...A WEAK RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COASTAL MARINE LAYER REMAINS SUPPRESSED UNDER THIS RIDGE. THE BODEGA BAY PROFILER THIS MORNING IS SHOWING A MARINE LAYER OF ONLY ABOUT 150 TO 200 METERS DEEP, COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY OF AROUND 300 METERS DEEP. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT THE MARINE LAYER RIGHT UP TO THE COAST AGAIN TODAY ALLOWING FOR A GENERALLY CLEAR DAY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILTER OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW. THE WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL FADE TODAY AS THIS UPPER LOW NEAR 29N131W BEGINS TO SHOW A LOWER LEVEL REFLECTION. THIS WILL TURN THE FLOW MORE TO THE NW AND N THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH THIS LOW BEING ABSORBED INTO A BROADER CIRCULATION AND PULLED TO THE S THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PAC NW AND EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN, NW CALIFORNIA MAY BE IN FOR A DECENT OFFSHORE WIND EVENT ON FRI. MODELS HAVE INCREASED THEIR DAYTIME HIGHS FOR THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS BY SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE RUNS. AS A RESULT, CONTINUED THE TREND THE DAY SHIFT BEGAN IN INCREASING THE HIGHS FOR FRI. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR FRI MAY EVEN NEED TO BE INCREASED IF THE OFFSHORE FLOW CAN STICK AROUND A BIT. MODELS DO SHOW THE PATTERN BREAKING DOWN BY SAT AFTERNOON, WITH AN ONSHORE PUSH COMING BACK. OVERALL, MODELS SEEM TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT THEY HAVE ALL BEEN SHIFTING TOGETHER OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, SO AM HESITANT TO COMPLETELY BITE OFF ON MED TO LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS. THERE ARE SOME FIRE WEATHER THREATS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK, AND CAN BE READ ABOUT BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION. BFG && .AVIATION...LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z ALONG THE COAST INCLUDING KACV AND KCEC. FOG IS LOOKING RATHER DENSE TONIGHT WITH A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DRIZZLE OR MIST. GRADIENTS HAVE BEGUN TO EASE FROM THE NORTH AND LOOK TO BECOME WEAKLY OFFSHORE HEADING THROUGH TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES THAN YESTERDAY NEARING THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR INLAND AREAS. AAD && .MARINE...NOT MUCH GOING ON ACROSS THE WATERS AT THE MOMENT WITH WEAK GRADIENTS AND LIGHT WINDS WITH A SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL. THIS IS MIXED WITH A 1-2FT LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL IN AREAS NOT SHELTERED BY CAPE MENDOCINO. LOTS OF CHANGES ARE IN STORE BEGINNING LATER WEDNESDAY AS AN INTENSE STORM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA HAS GENERATED A NW SWELL. THIS WILL BE AROUND 12 SECS IN PERIOD AND BETWEEN 7-10FT IN MAGNITUDE. FORECAST IS STILL RATHER CONSERVATIVE UNTIL WE ARE A BIT CLOSER AND CAN BE MORE CONFIDENT IN THE HIGHER MAGNITUDES DEPICTED IN THE MODELS...WHICH OFTEN END UP BEING TOO HIGH. GRADIENT WILL THEN INCREASE WITH NEAR GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS ON FRIDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW AND POSITION OF THERMAL LOW MAY KEEP WINDS LIGHTER NEAR THE COAST TO PRECLUDE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA WINDS...BUT STILL A RATHER ROUGH COMBINATION WITH THE NW SWELL. CONDITIONS WILL EASE UP OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER SOUTHERLY SWELL POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HELD OFF ON ISSUING GALE WATCH FOR NORTHERN OUTER WATERS FOR NOW BUT WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST SCA CONDITIONS MET THU NT-SAT AM. AAD && .FIRE WEATHER...VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BEGIN TODAY AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEP SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE OVERNIGHT CRAS IMAGERY DOES INDICATE SOME CU DEVELOPING THIS EVENING OVER THE TRINITY HORN, WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS DOWN TO -7C. THE DAY SHIFT FROM TUE MADE MENTION OF POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING FOR THU. WHILE MODELS DO HAVE THE CAPE AND NEG LIS FOR THE EASTERN TERRAIN, THEY ARE ALSO SHOWING DECENT RH VALUES IN THE MID LEVELS AND PUSHING THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH PWAT. WITH THAT, DO NOT THINK DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE OF GREAT CONCERN, BUT HAVE KEPT THE MENTION IN THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST THIS MORNING. THE MORE THREATENING TIME IN THE FORECAST WILL BE FRI AFTERNOON. AS AN UPPER LOW SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE PAC NW, THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE NORTHERN FIRE WEATHER ZONES CAUSING GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS. FRI WILL ALSO LIKELY BE ONE OF THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE YEAR WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL CAUSE VERY LOW RH ACROSS ALL OF NW CALIFORNIA FOR FRI. THESE COMBINE WITH THE FUEL BEING OR NEARLY BEING CURED, COULD RESULT IN A RED FLAG DAY. THIS PATTERN REALLY BEGAN TO SHOW IN THE 12Z RUNS YESTERDAY AND HAVE CONTINUED OVERNIGHT WITH THE 00Z RUNS. THE DAY CREW WILL EVALUATE THE NEW 12Z RUNS LATER THIS MORNING, AND IF DATA REMAIN CONSISTENT, AT LEAST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED. REALLY WENT BACK AND FORTH OVERNIGHT WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A FWA AND DECIDED NOT TO, BUT WILL HEADLINE IN THE FWF. CONVECTION DOES CONTINUE TO REMAIN A THREAT FOR SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WEAKLY STABLE. DID UP THE SILENT POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF ALL REMAINS ON TRACK, WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO SLIGHT CHANCE ON TONIGHTS SHIFT. BFG && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KEKA 261106 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 406 AM PDT FRI AUG 26 2011 .SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF DEL NORTE AND TRINITY COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE WEEKEND TO BE HOT AND DRY INLAND. THE COAST WILL SEE OVERNIGHT CLOUDS AND FOG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EACH AFTERNOON. && .DISCUSSION... MARINE LAYER DEPTH IS A BIT SHALLOWER AROUND 1KFT THIS MORNING WITH LESS FOG AND DRIZZLE THAN LAST NIGHT ALONG WITH A BIT STRONGER NORTHERLY GRADIENT. THIS IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY DUE TO WEAK RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS NW CA FOR FRIDAY AS WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES. NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS EVIDENT IN THE WV IMAGERY OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHWEST. DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ATTM...BUT NEITHER DID THE WAVE PASSING ACROSS OREGON EARLY THIS AM WHICH GENERATED CONVECTION WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH IT AND INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AT BEST. LEFT IN POPS OVER INTERIOR TRINITY AND DEL NORTE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. JUST FROM A PLACEMENT AND TIMING STANDPOINT OF THIS WAVE...THINK THE BEST CHC MAY BE ACROSS DEL NORTE TONIGHT. EITHER WAY...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH. 4KM CRAS IR HINTED AT CONVECTION ACROSS NWRN OREGON LAST NIGHT BUT SHOWS NOTHING ACROSS NRN CA TONIGHT...FWIW. MADE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEAK RIDGING WILL ATTEMPT TO EXTEND ACROSS CA FROM THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE DESERT SW FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE A BIT OF A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OCCURS...OR PERHAPS JUST A RETURN TO THE ONE WE SAW IN THE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER. DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE PAC NW BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE NW CA AROUND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH NW FLOW SETTING UP IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE INTERIOR FOR SURE...AS THERMAL TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND WILL WEAKEN. OTHER IMPACT WILL BE TO MARINE LAYER...WHICH WILL LIKELY DEEPEN BUT WILL ALSO HAVE THE TENDENCY TO MIX AND ERODE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LONGER RANGE HINTS TOWARD A WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW POTENTIALLY SETTING UP BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION...EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK CLAIMING RIGHTS TO THE ENTIRE WEST COAST THIS MORNING. ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST VSBY HAVE REMAINED IN THE MVFR RANGE WHILE CIGS HAVE HOVERED AROUND 2-300 FT. FORESEE VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 5 TO 6 HOURS BEFORE SUBTLE IMPROVEMENT IS SEEN BY LATE MORNING. ACROSS THE INTERIOR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME CU BUILDUPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND AN ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE AROUND THE SISKIYOU AND TRINITY ALPS IN THE AFTERNOON. && .MARINE...PRES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HORUS AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MDT WINDS AND STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENP FCST CONTINUES TO SHOW A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL 3 FT AT 20 SEC BUILDING INTO THE WATERS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT TUESDAY PZZ470-475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KEKA 181116 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 416 AM PDT THU AUG 18 2011 .SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE FOR INTERIOR NW CALIFORNIA. WHILE ALONG THE COAST...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL AFTERNOON CLEARING. && .DISCUSSION...MORNING IR SAT FOG CHANNEL SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST WITH LIMITED INLAND PENETRATION. THESE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE TRYING TO PUSH UP INTO THE LARGER RIVER VALLEYS OF HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COASTS, BUT ARE BEING LIMITED BY A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE, THE FOG SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE COAST AND WILL LIKELY BE A REPEAT OF WED. FOG IS ALSO SHOWING UP IN SAT IMAGERY ALONG THE MENDOCINO COAST WITH LIMITED INLAND INTRUSION. THIS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY TODAY AS IT IS NOT APPEARING VERY THICK. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE NORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS ALONG THE COAST, WITH POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AS MOISTURE STREAMS REMAINS ABUNDANT. THE CAVEAT TO THIS WOULD BE OFFSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL NEED TO BE ASSESSED EACH MODEL RUN. AT THIS POINT, DO NOT THINK ANY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX TO THE SFC AT THE COAST AND SCOUR OUT THE FOG OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW IT DEVELOPS. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS SHOWING UP WELL IN THE WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND IS CAUSING THE THERMAL TROUGH AT THE SFC TO REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF WARM INLAND TEMPS. WV SAT IS ALSO SHOWING A NICE STREAM OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COMING FROM AROUND 25N130W, AND BEING ADVECTED OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND ALONG THE ERN FLANK OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO NRN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS BRINGING A RISE IN HUMIDITY ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA, WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE CU BUILD UP OVER THE MTNS TODAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING SOME CAPE AND NEG LI'S FOR TODAY AND FRI, BUT THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED ON THIS. POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS OVER THE INTERIOR MTNS IS LOW TODAY, BUT MAY NEED TO BE REASSESSED FOR FRI DUE TO THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE COAST AND PROVIDING THE LIFT. THE CLIMAX OF THIS IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. BY THAT POINT HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE MAY NOT BE PRESENT. AS SUCH, HAVE OPTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER THE INTERIOR MTNS. THE MORNING CRAS IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COOL CLOUD TOPS FOR FRI OR SAT EITHER. WITH TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE E PAC THOUGH, WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THEIR UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES ENTRAINED AND ADVECTED IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE TROUGH OFF THE W COAST. ALL THAT TO SAY, CONFDC IS MODERATE AT BEST FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST, AND DETERIORATES QUICKLY BEYOND THAT. BFG && .AVIATION...IR CHANNEL SHOWED PATCHY STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND OVER THE EEL DELTA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIN LAYER OF STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING LATER MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY. && .MARINE...HI PRES BUILDING TOWARD THE PAC NW COUPLED WITH DEVELOPING THERMAL LOW PRES OVER THE CA INTERIOR WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS THROUGH FRI. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT SATURDAY PZZ450-455. GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT PZZ470. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY PZZ470. HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY PZZ470. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY PZZ475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KEKA 112245 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 345 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2011 .SYNOPSIS...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL RETURN TO THE COAST AGAIN TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY PATCHY DRIZZLE. MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NW CALIFORNIA. FRI WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU WITH CLEAR SKIES INLAND AND PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST. && .DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL MAKE A RETURN TO THE COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT. THE BUFKIT NAM RH TIME SERIES SHOWS HIGH VALUES OF RH ALONG THE REDWOOD COAST TONIGHT INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS OF FRI AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. AS SUCH, DRIZZLE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN THE EARLY MORNING. THE DEPTH OF THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE FOR FRI OVER THU, MAKING IT MORE DIFFICULT TO BURN OFF. SUN AND MON ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE SHALLOW, ALLOWING FOR BETTER AFTERNOON BURN OFF. MODELS ARE INDICATING A TOUCH OF RIDGING ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA FOR FRI, WHICH WILL ADD A COUPLE OF DEGREES TO THE HIGH TEMPS OVER THU. THIS WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED AS AN UPPER TROUGH ROLLS INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN BY ALMOST 10 DEGREES BY TUE. SO LOOK FOR TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND INTO THE UPPER 70S LOW 80S BY TUE. MODELS ARE TRENDING SIMILAR, BUT THE TIMING OF THE FIRST TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH IS STILL OFF A BIT. BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK, ANOTHER RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE W COAST ALLOWING FOR REBOUNDING TEMPS. CONVECTION POTENTIAL...THE THU CRAS IR IMAGERY SHOWED COLD CLOUD TOPS NO LONGER IN OUR CWA, BUT MORE INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS, HAVE DECIDED TO PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS FROM THE FORECAST. THAT SAID, DID LEAVE SOME SILENT POPS IN THE FORECAST GIRDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF TRINITY AND INTERIOR MENDOCINO COUNTIES. DIVERGENCE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE FAIR AND THE WV IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE SW AND S, 32N389W AND 28N125W RESPECTIVELY. THIS MOISTURE COULD BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF SOME SHORT WAVES AND SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH, SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CAREFULLY TO BE SURE NO TSTMS DEVELOP IN THIS AREA OF MOISTURE. BFG && .AVIATION...NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO MOST AREAS HAVE REMAINED CLOUDY...HOWEVER THE HUMBOLDT AND ARCATA BAY AREA HAS BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. STILL LOOKING FOR KCEC CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS. CIGS WILL BE IN AND OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST. TONIGHT SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FILL IN AROUND SUNSET. THE MAIN EXCEPTION IS THE AREA SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS SOME DOWNSLOPING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THIS AREA CLEAR. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME DRIZZLE AS A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA SO EXPECT CIGS AND VSBY'S WILL BE LIFR NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. TOMORROW MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN CLEAR. MKK && .MARINE...PERSISTENT PATTERN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MDT TO FRESH N WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ALONG WITH SHORT PERIOD...WIND DRIVEN SEAS. HIGH PRES OFFSHORE WILL BEGIN TO CONTINUE WEAKEN TONIGHT ALLOWING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS TO RELAX. ASCAT WINDS SHOW 15 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS AND AROUND 20 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS. SO EXPECT SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO LINGER S OF THE CAPE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THERE IS GENERALLY AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THAT A TROUGH WILL RETURN TO THE WEST COAST...HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THIS. MAINLY WENT WITH THE DGEX AS IT WAS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS. MKK && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY PZZ475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KEKA 011030 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 330 AM PDT MON AUG 1 2011 .SYNOPSIS...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY NEAR THE COAST...BUT NEVER FULLY DISSIPATE TODAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FURTHER INLAND AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. && .DISCUSSION... CONCERNING CONVECTION...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS TRINITY COUNTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON PRODUCING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AND SUNDAY WAS A LITTLE BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES OVER 7.5 C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS. LOOKING AT THE VARIABLES AGAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MANY LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. NEGATIVE LI VALUES...MARGINAL CAPE...SIMILAR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND A SHORTWAVE TRIGGER WILL ALL BE IN PLACE FOR THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER EACH OF THESE VARIABLES WILL BE SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT NORTH OF TRINITY COUNTY AS PER THE GFS AND NAM MODELS. OTHER MODEL DATA IS SPLIT ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE CRAS INFRARED 4KM FORECAST MODEL INDICATES NO THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE 4KM SPC WRF DEVELOPS STORMS BOTH OVER THE TRINITY ALPS AND YOLLA BOLLYS. CONSIDERING ALL OF THIS...HAVE CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TRINITY ALPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE YOLLA BOLLYS. AS ALREADY STATED...THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA. BY TUESDAY THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHED WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AND INSTABILITY NOT AS IMPRESSIVE. THUS HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE OVER THE CWA LEADING TO INCREASING LIFT. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LACKING ABOVE THE SURFACE...BUT WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRIGGER A SLIGHT RISK OF A STORM OVER THE TRINITY ALPS SEEMS REASONABLE. BY THURSDAY THE RISK DECREASES ONCE AGAIN AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES/VORTICITY WILL PASS OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND AND THUNDER MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT. HOWEVER CONSIDERING MODEL INCONSISTENCIES HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE MARINE LAYER...THE STRATUS HAS DIFFICULTY COMPLETELY DISSIPATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SURGE STILL HOLDING ACROSS COASTAL MENDOCINO AND NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO HOLD MOISTURE ALONG THE HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTY COASTS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE MINIMAL ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH SREF GUIDANCE HOLDING THE STRATUS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH PERSISTENCE...WITH THE STRATUS LIKELY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY BUT RESURGING BACK INLAND BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS LOOK VERY SIMILAR ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE INCREASING AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INLAND INTRUSION OF THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY INCREASE. HAVE EXPANDED THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS TO INCLUDE MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS IN HUMBOLDT...DEL NORTE...AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THE STRATUS MAY SPREAD EVEN FURTHER INLAND. CHANCES OF STRATUS FAR INLAND DECREASE BY THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH PRIMARILY SET OVER THE WEST COAST. COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS NEAR 60 DEGREES WITH INLAND VALLEYS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. && .AVIATION... 11-3.9 IMAGERY SHOWING A THIN RIBBON OF STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH COAST THIS MORNING BUT MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD AREA SOUTH ALONG THE MENDO COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL WEAK TROUGH IS SITTING JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY BUT MAY HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO ENHANCE THE STRATUS AND BRING IT IN TO THE COAST TOMORROW. HIGH RES MODELS DO SHOW AN INCREASE IN MARINE LAYER DEPTH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW BUT FEEL KCEC AND KACV SHOULD AT LEAST REACH VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A MORE PRONOUNCED MARINE PUSH LOOKS TO OCCUR WED. OTHER THAN ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR ACROSS THE UKIAH VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. TONKIN && .FIRE WEATHER... APPROX 50 C2G STRIKES OCCURRED YESTERDAY IN OR NEAR TRINITY COUNTY WITH THE BULK OVER THE ALPS...AND ABOUT 10 OF THOSE OVER AN AREA BETWEEN WEAVERVILLE AND TRINITY CENTER. YESTERDAYS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WAS THE MOST WE'VE SEEN ACROSS THE FIRE DISTRICTS IN SOME TIME AND AT THIS TIME ONLY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN MOISTURE AND STABILITY LEAD TO THIS OCCURRENCE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. HAVE TO HAND IT TO OUR FRIENDS IN WISCONSIN AS THE CRAS SIMULATED IR IMAGERY DEPICTED THE ENHANCED CU DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY PERFECTLY...ALONG THE YOLLA BOLLY SPINE AND NORTHWARD TO THE TRINITY ALPS 24 HOURS PREVIOUS. CRAS ALSO VERIFIED WELL BACK ON FRI AND SAT WHEN IT SHOWED NO CLOUD ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE CWA...AND DURING THAT PERIOD SLIGHT CHANCE TSTORMS WERE FORECAST...YET BARELY ANY CU WAS OBSERVED. FOR TODAY...MEDFORD WFO HAS A RED FLAG WARNING FOR DRY LIGHTNING IN EFFECT FOR THEIR SISKIYOU COUNTY ZONES BORDERING TRINITY COUNTY TO THE NORTH. WE WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTORMS AGAIN ACROSS THE ALPS AND YOLLA BOLLY SPINE TODAY BUT DUE TO TRINITY COUNTY FUELS BEING BELOW NORMAL IN TERMS OF BURNING POTENTIAL (ERC'S BELOW AVERAGE STILL) AND EXPECTED LIGHTNING COVERAGE TO BE LESS THAN AREAS TO THE NORTH...FEEL A WARNING OR HEADLINE IS NOT WARRANTED. MINIMAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST FEW DAYS GETS SHUNTED OFF. HOWEVER MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ALOFT RIDE ACROSS THE REGION... THUS CANNOT DISCOUNT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOONS ACROSS EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT EVENTS EXPECTED. TONKIN && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KEKA 311541 AAA AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA...UPDATE 840 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011 .SYNOPSIS...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST TODAY. ELSEWHERE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. && .MORNING UPDATE...AN UPDATE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCLUDE TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF TRINITY COUNTY. MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD CAPE, -LI'S, AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, WHICH CAN ALL LEAD TO POSITIVE BUOYANCY. THE 12Z NAM IS SHOWING INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL, AND THE CRAS INFRARED FORECAST PRODUCT IS INDICATING GREAT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TODAY THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. NOTHING MAJOR WAS ADDED, SIMPLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS OVER THE YOLLA BOLLAS AND TRINITY ALPS. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH FORK MTN. ANY CONVECTION THAT GETS GOING WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOOKING DOWN THE ROAD A HAIR, MAY BE INCLUDING TSTMS FOR MON AFTERNOON AS WELL. BFG .DISCUSSION...THE STRATUS PUSHED NORTH LAST NIGHT AND IS NOW UP TO THE OREGON-CALIFORNIA BORDER AS OF 4 AM. ADDITIONALLY LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH HAVE COMBINED WITH THE STRATUS NEAR THE COAST TO RESULT IN CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL CURRENTLY WITH BUOY 27 SHOWING WEAK SOUTHWEST WINDS AND BROOKINGS OREGON AND CRESCENT CITY CALM. ADDITIONALLY A RIDGE ALOFT IS BUILDING OVER THE AREA AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ALL OF THESE COMBINE TO SUGGEST IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THE STRATUS TO COMPLETELY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH EXPECTATIONS OF CONDITIONS BEING SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND THE STRATUS SURGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN FOR MONDAY. OTHERWISE CONVECTION RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION INLAND LOOKS LESS LIKELY TODAY AS WEAK RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE CWA. CONSIDERING THERE WERE NO SHOWERS SATURDAY...A DRY FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED. PROBABILITIES INCREASE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA...BUT NOTHING STANDS OUT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ANY GREATER THEN WHAT HAS BEEN INDICATED THE LAST FEW DAYS. THUS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW WITH POPS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT. MED TO LONG RANGE...THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA WILL SLOW TO A NEAR STALL OVER THE W COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK, THEN LIMP ACROSS THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK. THE COASTAL MARINE LAYER WILL THUS SLOWLY DEEPEN THROUGH TROUGH PASSAGE, BRINGING MORE INLAND INTRUSION OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. FOR THE INLAND REGIONS OF NW CALIFORNIA, TEMPS WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH. A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES ALONG WITH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL BRING SOME MORE CU BUILDING ON TUE THROUGH WED AFTERNOONS, BUT NO TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS NOT PRESENT IN THE MODELS. IF MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHOW IN THE MODELS, THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. && .AVIATION...NAM12 CROSS SECTION SHOWS COASTAL MARINE LAYER AT ABOUT 1500 FT DEPTH THIS MORNING WITH FOG AND STRATUS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ALONG THE ENTIRE MENDO AND REDWOOD COASTS..HOWEVER BOTH WRF AND NAM12 SHOW KACV AND KCEC BREAKING OUT BY 18Z TODAY. MONDAY MAY SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. STRATUS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY UP THE RUSSIAN RIVER DRAINAGE AND MAY SEEP INTO THE UKIAH VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY PZZ470-475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KEKA 141022 CCA AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 323 AM PDT THU JUL 14 2011 .SYNOPSIS...A STUBBORN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST WILL MAINTAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHILE A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF TRINITY COUNTY. NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST. && .DISCUSSION...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BRING BELOW NORMAL INLAND TEMPERATURES AND ONSHORE FLOW. SINCE THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH WEEKEND ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. BOUTS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY. UPPED THE POPS AND TSTORM COVERAGE FOR FRIDAY AND FRI NIGHT BASED ON A MORE FAVORABLE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE AND STRONGER UPPER DIVERGENCE AS NOTED BY THE GFS. ALTHOUGH THE STANDARD CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS OR MOISTURE DO NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE OR EVEN MUCH DIFFERENT FROM WHAT WE'VE SEEN LATELY IF MODELS ARE CORRECT IN ADJUSTING THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TSTORMS COULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS BELIEVE NIGHTTIME TSTORM ACTIVITY AND COVERAGE MAY BE SUSTAINED LATE. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST CRAS IR IMAGERY WITH CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT MORNING. THERE IS SLIM CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT IT DIDNT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO ADD TO THE FORECAST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. ALONG THE COAST LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT AND MORNING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF AND GFS STILL ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING. THE GFS RETROGRADES THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST SLIGHTLY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH OVER US...BUT PUSHES IT NORTH RAISING THE HEIGHTS OVER US. EITHER WAY WARMER INLAND TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AND CONVECTION IS NOT LIKELY. ALONG THE COAST LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT AND MORNING WITH CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO THE COAST. JT/MKK && .AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED FAIRLY EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS SLOWLY FILLING IN OVER HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES...ALONG WITH A PATCHES OVER MENDOCINO COUNTY. DECKS WERE NEAR 2500 FT AT KCEC AND KACV BUT LOWER CLOUD LAYERS SHOULD FORM BY DAYBREAK WITH PERHAPS A FEW PATCHES OF 1SM IN MISTY FOG. THE BULK OF LOW CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT WITH HEATING AND MIXING BY LATE MORNING...BUT A FEW AREAS OF IFR CIGS MAY LINGER NEARBY THE COASTAL HILLS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TIMING AND EXTENT OF STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT IS MOST UNCERTAIN AS THE FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE AND THE MARINE LAYER MODERATELY DEEP WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS IN THE STACK. && .MARINE...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE SEA STATE WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL MIXING WITH A NORTHWESTERLY SHORT PERIOD FRESH SWELL. NORTH WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH ALOFT WEAKENS AND STRONGER GRADIENTS DEVELOP. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT: HTTP://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.EUREKA.GOV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 052011 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 311 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2011 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND CENTRAL WI AND NORTHEAST IA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. A 500MB TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH...WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SOUTHERN WI. AREAS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITHIN A REGION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET GOING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...ALONG WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THIS AREA SHOULD STAY FOCUSED TO THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION SEEPING INTO FAR NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA /CWA/ LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN IS ONGOING FROM LAST NIGHT...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH WEAK SFC-925MB CONVERGENCE WITH A TROUGH/FRONT. STORMS WEAKENED DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY/COVERAGE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CONVERGENCE AREA MOVES INTO EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WI AND ENCOUNTERS A LESS STABLE AIRMASS. LINE OF CU DEVELOPED AROUND 17Z ALONG THE SFC CONVERGENCE AREA AND IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI. CIRRUS ERODING AS IT FLOWS INTO SOUTHEAST WI TODAY...SO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO WARM THE AIR AND DESTABILIZE. SFC BASED CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG LATER THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z AT MSN ACCORDING TO THE RUC...GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG 21Z TO 02Z. VERY LITTLE SHEAR TO SPEAK OF...WITH ABOUT 20 KT UNIDIRECTIONAL BULK SHEAR. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOMEWHAT DISCRETELY...THEN CLUSTERING ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY AS IT CROSSES SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE HRRR SHOWING THE PRECIP SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA ABOUT 3 HOURS EARLIER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE CRAS AND CANADIAN ARE SLOWEST AND DRIEST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...MODELS WEAKEN PRECIP AS IT GETS INTO SOUTHEAST WI LATE THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...TAPERING CHANCE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. SEVERE NOT EXPECTED...BUT SMALL HAIL OR SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE EARLIER STORMS THIS EVENING. WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD SINK SOUTH OF THE WI/IL BORDER BY 12Z...BUT KEPT SCHC LINGERING TSTORMS IN FAR SOUTHEAST FOR MORNING HOURS. SOME MODELS HANG THE FRONT CLOSER TO OUR BORDER THAN OTHERS. .THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH 12Z GFS/NAM AND 00Z ECMWF STILL SIMILAR WITH A EASTERN CANADA/NORTHEAST U.S. MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH WEAK WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS WISCONSIN THURSDAY...WEAKENING FRIDAY AS RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS WISCONSIN AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. 12Z NAM HAS WEAK MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 500 TO 800 J/KG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOONS. NO CAPE IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH MORE STABLE AND DRY AIR OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. LITTLE IN WAY OF A CAP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.. SUBTLE WEAK TROF AXIS IN MID LEVELS WITH SOME POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. NAM AND GFS POPS ARE AROUND 10 PCT...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY. .LONG TERM... .SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH THE MID/UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY...WITH RIDGE EXTENDING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE EXITS SOUTHWEST CANADA INTO MANITOBA SATURDAY. GFS HAS NOW COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF TOWARDS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOWARD JAMES BAY/WESTERN HUDSON BAY SUNDAY NIGHT.HOWEVER THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS. RESULT IS BOTH MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WHICH LEADS TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE. SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FORMS OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. SOUTH FLOW INCREASES WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING MOISTURE LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH/TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SUNDAY MONDAY. MODERATE QPF VALUES ON THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF NEAR THE FRONT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGING IN MORE QPF SUNDAY WITH A TIGHTER THICKNESS GRADIENT WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION. .MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 500 MB PATTERN IS A LITTLE DIFFERENT BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF ON HOW IT HANDLES THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA WITH THE GFS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A SECOND SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. OVER THE FORECAST AREA FLOW IS ZONAL...BUT A BIT FASTER ON THE ECMWF AND A BIT MORE WEST NORTHWEST. BUT BOTH BUILD A WEAK SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY...AND ACROSS WISCONSIN/LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. MAIN DIFFERENCE IS 00Z ECMWF PUSHES THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE 12Z GFS HAS IT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL TAKE A CONSENSUS APPROACH ON THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION...SCT CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF WEAK SFC FRONT MAY AFFECT TAF SITES FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN BRIEFLY LWR MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...06 VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...13  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KEKA 042141 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 230 PM PDT MON JUL 4 2011 .SYNOPSIS...COASTAL LOW CLOUDS FINALLY GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. INTERIOR AREAS WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY WITH A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN ON WED AND THU. && .DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION UNDER WEAK TO MODERATE ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE. LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND WARM OVER THE CWA AS COASTAL LOW CLOUDS SHOULD NOT RETURN UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT PROMOTING GOOD FIREWORKS VIEWING. NEXT WEATHER CHALLENGE IS FOCUSED ON THE MID WEEK PERIOD WHERE AN INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH. AS OUTLINED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION A COUPLE OF KEY INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR (AT A MINIMUM) ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. FORECAST MODELS BRING SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD UP THE VALLEY AND INTO THE CWA BEGINNING TUE BUT THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE FROM THE WEST IS TIMED WELL WITH AFTERNOON HEATING ON WED. WITH SURFACE TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO TERRAIN INDUCED CUMULUS. STANDARD CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITY IN THE FORECAST. DID HOWEVER REDUCE COVERAGE BACK TO MAINLY THE EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE VERY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW. TO SEE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY UNDER THIS FLOW REGIME...WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE MOISTURE SOURCE FROM THE PACIFIC WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY OVER THE EPAC BUT THAT IS NOT THE CASE THIS TIME. BELIEVE MOST FAVORABLE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN EAST (SIERRA...WARNERS). AT THIS TIME CRAS IR CONFIRMS THIS WITH MOST OF ITS COLDER CONVECTIVE IR PIXELS OVER THE CENTRAL NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SIERRA. ALSO, AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE FOR THIS AREA...THE STUBBORN MID LEVEL CAP. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH MORE STABILITY WESTWARD...AND THIS STILL MAY BE UNDERDONE. NONETHELESS FEEL 10-15% CHANCE LEADING TO ISOLATED TSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN HIGHER TERRAIN SEEMS APPROPRIATE FOR WED AND PERHAPS THU. GIVEN ISOLATED COVERAGE OF LIGHTNING LARGE FIRE GROWTH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS FUELS ARE LIKELY STILL FEELING THE EFFECTS OF LAST WEEKS ABUNDANT RAINFALL. THE LATEST ERC AND LIVE FUEL MOISTURE WILL STILL ABOVE AVERAGE AND THAT WAS BEFORE THE RAINFALL..THUS...STILL A FEW WEEKS AWAY FROM ANY WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS DUE TO LIGHTING OR WIND/RH. SEASONAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES RIDING THROUGH WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUBTLE FLUCTUATIONS IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF MOUNTAIN CONVECTION. ALONG THE COAST LIGHT ONSHORE WIND DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT AND GRADUALLY DEEPENING MARINE LAYER SHOULD MAINTAIN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AT NIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH SOME AFTERNOON CLEARING. TONKIN && .AVIATION...STRATUS CLOUD DECK REFORMED OVERNIGHT ALONG MOST OF THE REDWOOD COAST AND ALONG THE MENDOCINO COAST SOUTH OF WESTPORT...WITH CIGS FALLING TO 200-300 FEET AND VSBY DOWN TO 1 1/2 SM. AS OF 1900 UTC THE LAYER IS RECEDING TOWARD THE COAST AND EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING OVER THE BEACHES BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING N WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...WHILE THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY REFORM AFTER MIDNIGHT...IT WILL BE MUCH LESS EXTENSIVE WITH CIGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR/SOUTH OF ACV TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF FORT BRAGG. INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN CLEAR. SMITH && .MARINE...CONTINUED ONGOING FORECAST FOR GALES OVER THE OUTER WATERS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 KT BY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GUSTS TO 35 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING FRIDAY. THE NEARSHORE WATERS WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS WITHIN 3-5 NM OFF THE BEACHES IN THE MORNING HOURS...INCREASING TO SCA IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING. STRONGER WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED NEAR CAPE MENDOCINO. THE SEA STATE WILL BE DOMINATED BY SHORT PERIOD COMBINED SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 10 FEET IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND UP TO 15 FEET OFFSHORE AT AROUND 8 TO 9 SECONDS. MODELS INDICATE WINDS DECREASING LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SMITH && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY PZZ450-455. GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT FRIDAY PZZ470-475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KEKA 262159 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 300 PM PDT SUN JUN 26 2011 .SYNOPSIS...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NW CALIFORNIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. && .DISCUSSION...FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO AN APPROACHING STRONG UPPER LOW POISED TO REACH THE COAST ON TUESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM CROSSES 130W FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND A FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL CROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ACCOMPANIED BY A LIGHT STREAM OF NEAR 1INCH PWAT INTO THE CWA. THE LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHWEST CA THEN TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL SIERRA BY WED. KEPT SHOWERS AND TSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE TUE BUT FEEL BEST CHANCE FOR NW CA WILL BE MON AFT THROUGH MON NIGHT BEFORE ENERGY CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY CRAS SIMULATED IR WHICH DEPICTS SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND SPC'S PERFECT PROG GUIDANCE FOCUSED OVER THE YOLLA BOLLYS LATE MON. BUFKIT...ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...DOES SHOW SOME BRIEF ELEVATED INSTABILITY LASTING THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS TRINITY COUNTY BUT EVEN IF STORMS FORM MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW APPEARS TO REMAIN STRONG (25-35 KT) AND WILL PUSH ANY CELLS RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THE MID TO UPPER WINDS MAY BE EVEN TO STRONG...PERHAPS SHEARING ANY VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH INITIAL LIGHTING MAY BE DRY STORMS WILL BECOME WET THROUGH TUESDAY AND GIVEN CURRENT FUEL CONDITIONS WHICH ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL IN TERMS OF ERC VALUES AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LIVE FUEL MOISTURE...LARGE AND RAPID FIRE GROWTH IS NOT ANTICIPATED...DESPITE NEARING JULY. TUESDAY THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON QPF...HOWEVER KEPT POPS ON THE HIGH END BUT TRIMMED QPF DOWN A BIT. STORMS TOTALS STILL AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS WITH UP TO A HALF IN POSSIBLE IN FAVORED AREAS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS INLAND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...DIMINISHING CHANCES INTO WED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIODS WITH TUESDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY. THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECENT RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK TO SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON BY NEXT WEEKEND. TONKIN && .AVIATION...VFR DOMINATES THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE NW CALIFORNIA TODAY. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS CEC WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE HUNG IN MUCH OF THE DAY. IT HAS ONLY BEEN IN THE AFTERNOON THAT CEC HAS MADE IT INTO VFR. VFR WILL NOT BE LONG LIVED ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, AS CEILINGS WILL BE FALLING INTO IFR BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODELS DO INDICATE VSBY FALLING DEEP INTO IFR AS WELL, WHICH SHOULD NOT BE A STRETCH. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR CEC AND ACV WILL BE IF THEY END UP IN LIFR. AT THIS POINT, DO NOT THINK THAT WILL HAPPEN AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES DEEPENING THE MARINE LAYER. OVERNIGHT, THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWN IF THE OBS BEGIN TO TREND THAT WAY. UKI AND OTHER INLAND LOCATION WILL REMAIN VFR AND ONLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A VERY HIGH SCT DECK WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING IN. BFG && .MARINE...SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, DROPPING BY ABOUT 50 PERCENT. YESTERDAY AFTERNOON SEAS WERE IN THE 6 FT RANGE AND THIS AFTERNOON THEY ARE IN THE 3 FT RANGE. BUOYS N OF THE CAPE ARE RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 FT WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS AT THE CAPE MENDOCINO WAVE RIDER BUOY. WINDS ARE GUSTY AROUND THE CAPE THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE LOCALLY HIGHER SHORT PERIOD SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE MENDOCINO. WITH A LACK OF OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WATERS S OF CAPE MENDOCINO, CAN REALLY ONLY GO OFF OF MODEL DATA. WINDS AT POINT ARENA LIGHTHOUSE HAVE BEEN RUNNING IN THE MID TEENS. THIS IS UP AT ELEVATIONS THOUGH. WINDS AT THE POINT ARENA DOCK ON THE OTHER HAND, HAVE BEEN IN THE SUB 10 KT REALM. SHELTER COVE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN MUCH THE SAME AS THE THOSE OF THE POINT ARENA DOCK. BUOY 46014 NNW OF POINT ARENA SHOULD BE BACK IN SERVICE SOMETIME IN JULY. IN THE MEANTIME, MODELS AND ASCAT IT IS. THE 19Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF 20 KT WINDS IN THE SRN OUTER WATERS. SO MODELS LOOK TO BE PRETTY GOOD AT THIS POINT. S SWELL WILL BE OF NOTE IN THE OUTER WATERS AND S OF THE CAPE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RUN IN THE 3 FT RANGE WITH PERIODS SHOWING AROUND 14 TO 16 SECONDS. BEWARE OF POTENTIAL SHOALING HAZARDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DUE TO A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA SHIFTING TO THE E AND AN UPPER LOW MOVING S FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A FRONT INTO THE AREA, CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE S AND SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MON. THIS WILL NOT BE A POTENT FRONT IN TERMS OF WINDS AND SEAS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TOO. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND THEN TO THE N AND INCREASE BY WEEKS END. AT THAT POINT WE WILL BE LOOK AT ANOTHER BOUT OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. BFG && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...NONE. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KOHX 190151 AAC AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 851 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011 .UPDATE... 00Z SUN KOHX SOUNDING PROFILE CONTINUING TO SHOW OVERALL GOOD PRECIP WATER CONTENT AT 1.59 INCHES...ALONG WITH A VARIETY OF GOOD INSTABILITY INDICES'S INDICATORS....BUT GENERALLY DRY BELOW 600 MB. LOOKING AT CURRENT SATELLITE/SFC OBS...CLEARING SKIES W TO E ACROSS THE MID STATE...WITH SOME WEAK CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO ERN AR AND SRN MO. NWLY FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT TIME HRS ALSO...WITH BEST POSSIBLE STORM TRACK POTENTIAL ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE. HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL BRINGING CURRENT ERN KS/WRN-CNTRL MO CONVECTION TO NEAR NW PORTIONS OF THE MID STAT BY 09Z...THEN MOVING CONVECTION EWD AND THEN SWD INTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION BY 12Z. CRAS FORECASTED SAT IMAGERY ALSO BRINGING INTO W PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUN AT LEAST A PLUME OF MOISTURE WHICH IS PRESENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH E TX/SE OK/W AR CONVECTION. EVEN THOUGH NO CONVECTION PRESENTLY ACROSS THE MID STATE... DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK POINTS TO THE FACT THAT A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET THAT PERSISTENCE OF SEVERAL QUASI-LINEAR CLUSTERS IS POSSIBLE THAT MIGHT MOVE INTO THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT. WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH MOCLR SKIES THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HRS...WITH SKIES BECOMING MOCLDY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS UPDATE WORDING OF ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS EARLY...BECOMING LIKELY LATE. WILL ALSO ADDRESS WORDING FOR SUN TO REFLECT POSSIBLE MCS IMPACTS ACROSS THE MID STATE BY RAISING POPS AND ADDRESSING MOCLDY SKIES THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HRS. && .PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 632 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011/ UPDATE...FOR AVIATION. AVIATION...00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SSW WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z. ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER AR/MO THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY MOVE/SPREAD INTO PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BEST GUESS FOR TSRA IS FROM 09Z- 15Z AT BNA/CSV. AFTER THE MORNING STORMS MOVE AWAY...LOOK FOR SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH GUSTY SW WINDS TO 25KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 13 PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 534 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011/ UPDATE... WILL MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO TONIGHT'S FORECAST WITHIN THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS. SHORT RANGE MODELS...HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODELS...SATELLITE/SFC OBS...ALL SUPPORTING A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING TO OUR NW AND MOVING INTO THE MID STATE LATE TONIGHT. THUS...HAVE DECREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE THRU THE EARLY MORNING HRS...WITH SHWRS/TSTMS BECOMING LIKELY LATE. HAVE ALSO MADE A MINOR TWEAK IN SKY CONDITIONS TO SUPPORT A GENERALLY MOCLDY SKY TREND. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS BREAKS IN CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWS AROUND 70...MID 60S PLATEAU. WITH SLY/SWLY SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU THE NIGHTTIME HRS ALSO...INCREASED WINDS SPEEDS INTO THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE. 31 PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 239 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011/ DISCUSSION...SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS A MESOSCALE SYSTEM HAS WORKED ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE MAP AT 19Z SHOWS A MESO-HIGH OVER THE MID STATE OWING TO WIDESPREAD OUTFLOW, WITH THE UPPER FLOW LARGELY ZONAL. SPC HAS MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT, AND MAY ONCE AGAIN HAVE TO DEAL WITH A MESOSCALE COMPLEX TOMORROW MORNING AS MODELS BRING A MOISTURE BULLS-EYE THROUGH THE MID STATE AROUND 12Z. GFS MODEL SOUNDING FOR BNA FOR 12Z SUNDAY LOOKS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THIS MORNING'S OBSERVED SOUNDING, WITH A NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER, DEEP MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY, AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION. AFTERWARDS, LOOK FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS THE ATMOSPHERE FINALLY DRIES OUT AND HOT WEATHER RETURNS. STILL EXPECTING A COLD FRONT AROUND MID WEEK THAT WILL BRING A PROLONGED CHANCE OF RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER LASTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ROSE && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 31  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDLH 110805 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 305 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2011 .DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS WAS CROSSING FROM C MN INTO N WI AROUND 0730Z. QG FORCING ANALYSIS SUGGESTS BROAD AND DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL QUICKLY SPREAD OVER THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR THE AREA FROM NW TO SE AND FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END. IN GENERAL...11.00Z UW-CRAS MODEL SIMULATED CLOUD COVER AND IR SATELLITE PRODUCTS SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRENDS...SO THAT WAS FOLLOWED. DESPITE SUBSIDENCE REGIME...SOME MODELS HAVE SOME SPOTTY QPF ON THE ORDER OF 0.01-0.03 INCHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR MN ZONES NORTH OF HWY 2. THIS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SUBTLE SFC PRESSURE TROUGH. LOCAL DLH-WRF DEVELOPS SHOWERS JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THEN SPREADS THEM INTO NRN MN AFTER 18Z. WE FELT THIS WAS WORTH 15-20 PCT POP. SMALL POSITIVE BUOYANCY REGION ON FCST SOUNDINGS DOES NOT EXTEND ABOVE -15C...SO PROSPECTS OF THUNDER SEEM LOW. THERE WILL BE A FEW POSSIBLE ISSUES TO DEAL WITH TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS LOW TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FROST. THE CLEARING SKIES AND SFC ANTICYCLONE CERTAINLY ARGUE FOR QUICKLY PLUMMETING TEMPS IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS ALSO SHOW THAT THE 925-850MB LAYER LOCKED IN A WEAK WAA PATTERN ALL NIGHT. GIVEN THE OPPOSING IDEAS...FOLLOWED CONSENSUS GUIDANCE CLOSELY WITH A FEW COOLER TWEAKS IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS LAMP MOS PUTS HYR AND IWD IN THE 36-38F RANGE BY 08Z. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT EVALUATE THE TRENDS IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURE AND CLOUD DISTRIBUTION TO MAKE THE CALL ON ANY LOWER TEMPS OR FROST. THE OTHER ISSUE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG. CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE IS NOT QUITE IN FOG RANGE ON BUFR SOUNDINGS...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WELL. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT DAY WEATHER-WISE. WITH RIDGE AXIS KEEPING ANY PRECIP CHANCES WELL WEST...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND WARMER. MIXING AFTN 850MB AND 925MB TEMPS ON THE NAM AND GFS DRY ADIABATICALLY TO THE SURFACE YIELDS SOME AREAS OF MID-UPR 70S. MET AND MAV MOS FIGURES ARE BOTH IN THE MID 70S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE LAKE...SO HIGH TEMPS WERE BOOSTED. .EXTENDED...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PASSING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH REPLACING THE RIDGE. INCREASING WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO MAINLY OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF SHOWS SURFACE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR CWA INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEING DISPLACED LATER TUESDAY. THIS HIGH SHOULD KEEP BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER OUR WESTERN CWA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF/GEM IN GENERAL AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW FOR THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AS COMPARED TO THE GFS. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH THAT PERIOD OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE RAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD. OVERALL...OUTSIDE OF LAKE BREEZES AND ANY STEADIER RAIN AREAS...TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE SEASONABLE. && .AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FT..WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS...WERE FOUND OVER NRN WISCONSIN...EXTENDING NORTH OVER LAKE LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST IN THIS AREA THROUGH 12Z...AFFECTING THE KHYR AND KDLH TAF SITES. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUD DECKS WILL PREVAIL WITH AN ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS AROUND 5 KFT WILL SCATTER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH SAT MORNING...CLEARING SAT EVENING. && .POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 61 45 69 50 / 10 10 0 10 INL 70 42 75 56 / 20 20 10 20 BRD 70 47 72 55 / 10 0 10 20 HYR 64 40 74 51 / 10 0 0 10 ASX 60 40 69 48 / 10 10 0 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LAMERS EXTENDED....MELDE AVIATION...GRANING  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KSLC 051230 AFDSLC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 630 AM MDT SUN JUN 5 2011 .SYNOPSIS...A DRY AND MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A PACIFIC STORM MOVES INLAND. && .DISCUSSION...DEEPER INSPECTION OF THE LOCAL 12KM WRF-NMM SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR TOMORROW MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT AND CACHE VALLEY. THE MODEL SHOWS A TROPOPAUSE FOLD CROSSING NORTHERN UTAH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH IS JUXTAPOSED WITH 60KTS OF AVERAGE FLOW WITHIN THE 700-500MB MIX LAYER. 4KM CRAS WATER VAPOR SATELLITE FORECAST SHOWS THE FORECAST DRY SLOT PROGRESSING COINCIDENTALLY WITH THE HIGHER POTENTIAL VORTICITY ON THE LOCAL 12KM WRF-NMM. NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING TO CONSIDER FOR LATER SHIFTS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS RIDGING DOMINATING THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH AN UPPER LOW NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ASIDE FROM A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST UTAH...IT WILL BE A SUNNY DAY. A 4C INCREASE IN 700MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN LAST EVENING AND THIS EVENING WILL SUPPORT WARMING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S NORTHERN VALLEYS AND NEAR 100F SOUTHERN VALLEYS. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH THE CYCLONE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. BY MONDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 700MB INCREASES TO BETWEEN 40-50KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH CROSSES NEVADA DURING THE MORNING AND WESTERN UTAH DURING THE AFTERNOON. QUITE A DYNAMIC SITUATION WITH 10DM HEIGHT FALLS MONDAY. INSPECTION OF NAM/LOCAL 12KM WRF-NMM BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP LAYER MIXING UP TO 500MB WHICH IS BELIEVABLE GIVEN THE DYNAMICS. LOOKING AT A 700-500MB LAYER AVERAGE OF WINDS...WESTERN UTAH COULD EASILY MIX TO 50-70KTS. THIS PATTERN FITS THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR A DYNAMIC HIGH WIND EVENT FOR UTAH. HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE WESTERN ZONES INCLUDING THE SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS. LOOKS LIKE ALL OF THE REMAINDER OF THE UTAH ZONES WILL NEED A WIND ADVISORY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH AS DIFLUENT FLOW INCREASES DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. 21Z SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE 40KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN UTAH INTO IDAHO. ORGANIZED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THEN PROPAGATE NNE INTO IDAHO. COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH PERIODIC SPOTTY CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH. GFS/EUROPEAN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE FIRST IMPULSE EXITS BY BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A SECONDARY FEATURE ARRIVING IN DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THE MID WEEK. A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW DROPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. && .HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEBER RIVER SYSTEM BELOW ECHO RESERVOIR TO ITS TERMINATION AT THE GREAT SALT LAKE AND LOST CREEK FROM ITS RESERVOIR TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE WEBER. OTHER FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT ARE FOR THE SOUTH FORK OF THE OGDEN AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SEVIER RIVER. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS/IMPACTS ON ALL FLOOD WARNINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND ACCELERATE THE SNOWMELT AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL REQUIRE VERY CLOSE MONITORING OF AREA STREAMS/RIVERS AS SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY THUS FAR THIS YEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS FOR A 72 HOUR PERIOD. && .AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT THE SLC TERMINAL INTO THE AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THAN NORMAL TODAY...ABOUT 21-22Z WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF HOLDING OFF UNTIL 23Z. WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY FOR A TIME THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BETWEEN ABOUT 16-19Z. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR. && .FIRE WEATHER...THE LOW ALONG THE CA COAST WILL MAINTAIN A DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FIRE DISTRICTS TODAY. HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW WITH MOST READINGS WELL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MOST VALLEYS. WINDS JUST TOUCHED CRITICAL VALUES YESTERDAY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY SO HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE TWO FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE FUELS ARE DEEMED CRITICAL. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY AND SHOULD EXCEED CRITICAL SPEEDS ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT HUMIDITIES MAY NOT DROP QUITE AS LOW IN THESE WESTERN VALLEYS AS THE LOW SWINGS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DISTRICT. SO HAVE LEFT THE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AT THIS TIME. HAVE ALSO KEPT THE WATCH FOR THE EASTERN VALLEYS MONDAY ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS MORE LIKE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THAT AREA. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR TONIGHT BUT SHOULD IMPROVE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE REMAINING LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST UTAH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN ALL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE COOLER MORE STABLE AIRMASS SPREADS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE ONLY CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS WILL BE ALONG THE IDAHO BORDER MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING. && .SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING BELOW 6000 FEET FOR UTZ439-440. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BELOW 6000 FEET FOR UTZ431-432-438>441. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR UTZ003-005-015-016. WY...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC/HYDROLOGY...ROGOWSKI FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...WILENSKY FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE) FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION VISIT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KOHX 251559 AAA AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1059 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011 .UPDATE... MORNING ANALYSES DEPICT A 500 MB LOW OVER KS AT 12Z WITH ASSOCIATED 200 TO 300 MB JET MAX LOCATED S OF LOW OVER OK AND N TX AREA. MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE E TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT TO S IL...AND ONLY BEGIN A NE MOVEMENT LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD STRONGER MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO OUR AREA. TOOK A GANDER AT CRAS MODEL...GFS AND NAM PRECIP EFFICIENCY AND GFS...NAM AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS...AND AT THIS TIME ALL SIGNS POINT TO LIKELIHOOD THAT A WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT AT LEAST IN OUR FAR W BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MESOSCALE MODEL REFLECTIVITIES ALSO SHOW GOOD DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER OUR W AND NW BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES BOTH 700 TO 500 MB AND 850 TO 500 MB...PLUS DECENT CAPE IN HAIL GROWTH ZONE SHOW LIKELIHOOD OF A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. LARGE HELICITY VALUES THANKS TO A VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE ALSO MAKE TORNADOES A REAL POSSIBILITY...BUT MAINLY IN W PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TO SUMMARIZE...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE W PART OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE E PART OF OUR AREA...THERE WILL BE MUCH LESS MOISTURE AVAILABLE INITIALLY SO THAT ONLY LOWER CHANCES OF PRECIP CAN BE EXPECTED. WITH THE UPPER LOW TAKING A MORE NE MOVEMENT LATE TONIGHT...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL LESSEN AS WIND FIELDS BEGIN TO RELAX SOMEWHAT. WILL BEEF UP POPS A TAD TO LIKELY CATEGORY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN FAR W AND NW...BUT NOT CHANGE THEM MUCH FOR REST OF AREA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011/ AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION... STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH MIDDLE TN ON THURSDAY BUT PRE FRONTAL TROUGHING WILL BRING A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AFT 00Z. HOWEVER...AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST TONIGHT THEY WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL FALL WITHIN THE IFR CATEGORY WHEN THE HEAVIER CONVECTION TAKES PLACE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2011/ DISCUSSION... ANALYSIS SHOWING WELL DEFINE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...WITH AIRMASS QUITE UNSTABLE SOUTH SIDE. ALOFT...WEAK ML/UL RIDGING OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO KS. REGIONAL RADARS QUIET COMPARING PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN IN VICINITY OF PLAINS FEATURES. PLAINS SFC/UPPER LOWS WILL MAKE SLOW TRACK EAST...MOVING OVER MO 00Z THU...IL 12Z...AND THEN UP TOWARD NORTHERN IN 00Z FRI. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BRING UPPER TROUGH AND SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION AND ACROSS THE CWA LATER THU. ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE AND BETTER UVV WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA LATER TODAY BUT MORE SO TONIGHT AND THU. THESE FEATURES WILL HAVE PLENTY OF WORK WITH AS CAPES RUN 2000-2500 AND SRH 250+...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LARGELY TONIGHT/EARLY THU. THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS REALLY WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS WHAT LOOKS LIKE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES. A FEW STORMS WILL HANG AROUND THU EVENING BUT THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY MUCH WRAPPED UP BY FRI MORNING WITH FRONT AND UPPER TROUGHS JUST EAST. WHILE FRI EXPECTED TO BE DRY...PASSING FRONT GONE RAPIDLY AS SOUTHERLY LL FLOWS RETURNS FRI NIGHT AND ANOTHER BOUNDARY SETS UP JUST NORTHWEST. ML/UL FLOW GOES BACK WEST AND POSSIBILITY OF ISO- SCT DEVELOPMENT OUT WEST RIDING DOWN INTO THE CWA LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT AGAIN ARISES. ANY CONVECTION EARLY SAT SHOULD BE IT FOR MOST FROM THAT POINT INTO MID-WEEK AS SFC HIGH AND UPPER RIDGE BECOMES DOMINANT SUN AND HOLDS INTO WED. SOME MOISTURE DOES SNEAK IN EARLY WED EAST AND THAT MAY POP A FEW ISO STORMS ON THE PLATEAU IN THE AFTERNOON. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ STEIGERWALDT  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KOHX 010001 AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 701 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011 .MESOSCALE UPDATE... SHORT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY HAS WEAKENED DURING THE LAST HOUR WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. LINE GENERALLY ORIENTED ALONG WESTERN SIDE OF HIGHER THETA E AXIS AND IN THE GRADIENT AREA. BOYD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011/ UPDATE... UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES TO REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING. COLD FRONT BACK JUST WEST OF FORT SMITH ARKANSAS. 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS UP AHEAD OF FRONT INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MOVING EAST AT A PRETTY GOOD CLIP. RAPID REFRESH AND CRAS ARE BOTH SLOWER IN BRINGING PRECIP EASTWARD TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BOYD PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2011/ DISCUSSION... MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. SAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW THAT CHANGES ARE AHEAD AS A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS COVERS MUCH OF THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEYS. THIS MOISTURE IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE HEADING OUR WAY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS. STILL LOOKING AT THE APPROACH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY. THE ACTUAL FROPA IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL GENERALLY SEE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT BREAK SUNDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PVA INFLUENCE BECOMES MORE NEUTRALIZED SO THAT WE SEE A DECREASE IN CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS IT STRENGTHENS AGAIN ON MONDAY. DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH ON TUESDAY AND THEREBY BRING A FINAL ROUND OF RAINFALL TO THE AREA. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 3 1/2 INCHES FAR NORTHWEST TO ABOUT 1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU. AS FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL...WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED AS THE SLT CHC FOR SVR REMAIN TO OUR WEST. WILL REISSUE THE HYDRO OUTLOOK(ESF) BUT WILL INCLUDE ONLY THE WESTERN QUARTER OR SO OF THE MID STATE. IN THE EXT FCST...A RETURN TO A DRIER REGIME IS INDICATED. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS FOR EARLY MAY. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 01  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMPX 270837 AFDMPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 337 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011 .DISCUSSION... THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE UP OF MICHIGAN IS IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING ATTM. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE TODAY ALONG A FRONT FROM OHIO RIVER VLY INTO CTRL GREAT LAKES AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD KEEP MN/WI IN MOIST CYCLONIC BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TODAY WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW GRADUALLY ABATING ON THURSDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A CLOUDY AND BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE CWA. THE NAM AND UW-MADISON CRAS MODEL SIMULATED CLOUD COVER PRODUCTS SHOW A FEW SMALL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BUT THE OVERALL THEME IS A PERSISTENT LOW-MID CLOUD DECK. FOR THOSE REASONS...HIGHS WERE TRENDED DOWN FOR TODAY... ESPECIALLY IN THE NE HALF OF THE CWA. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SCTD SHOWERS CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON RADAR WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. WITH SFC TEMPS GENERALLY OVER 36 DEGREES...THE TREND OF LESSENING THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF R/S MIX WAS CONTINUED FROM WHAT THE EVENING SHIFT HAD ALREADY DONE. THERE MAY BE A LULL WITH LOWER COVERAGE / INTENSITY OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FIRST SURFACE LOW WEAKENS. MODELS SHOW LOW TO MID LVL FGEN INCREASING AGAIN JUST AFTER 00Z...AND THIS MAY BE WHEN STEADIER RAIN RE-DEVELOPS. THE LATEST 4KM WRF RUNS SUPPORT THIS TREND...AND EXIT PRECIP FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA ON THURS AM. THE NEXT LOW WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY AND PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FRI NGT AND SAT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE ENTIRE SYSTEM ON THE 00Z RUNS...AND SEEM TO POINT TO 06Z TO 18Z SAT AS THE MAIN WINDOW FOR PRECIP. THEREFORE...THE RELATED GRID EDITS WERE TO BUMP THINGS UP TO LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF SRN AND CTRL MN FRI NGT AND TO CUT BACK INHERITED POPS SAT NGT INTO SUN NGT. GFS FCST SOUNDINGS HAVE ELEVATED CAPE VALUES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG...SUFFICIENT FOR SOME THUNDER...SO THAT WORDING WAS MAINTAINED IN THE GRIDS. AJL && .AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER EASTERN PORTION OF MN AND WESTERN PORTION OF WI THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. CIGS WILL BE IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH IFR CIGS IN RAIN/SNOW. THE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING AS LOW DRIFTS EAST. WILL KEEP PREVIOUS TREND FOR PRECIP FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IT IS SCATTERED IN NATURE. ALSO...THERE IS STILL A THREAT FOR RAIN/SNOW MIXED AT KSTC/KEAU/KMSP/KRNH FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MS && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ AJL/MS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 241839 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 139 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2011 .SHORT TERM... .TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER WI TONIGHT. THEN LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MO AND CENTRAL IL ON MONDAY...AND ACROSS LAKE MI ON TUE. LOW CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE DENSE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES SOUTHERN WI...AND IT WILL BE OVERCAST ON MONDAY. THE FIRST 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN WI MON AFTERNOON. THE POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION...UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET...700MB OMEGA AND 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL COME TOGETHER OVER NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI MON AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING THE RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS TRIES TO BRING RAIN SHOWERS INTO ALL OF SOUTHERN WI EARLIER THAN THE NAM...WHICH ONLY BRINGS THE SHOWERS INTO SOUTHWEST WI. IT WILL DEPEND ON THE SFC TRACK AND HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM CAN OVERCOME THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE. FOR NOW...KEPT THE RAIN CHANCE GOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE 18Z-00Z TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 60 INLAND TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE LAKE ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY...AS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE EASTERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS/INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS AND CRAS CONTINUES TO TREND FASTER THAN THE 12Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF. PREFER THE SLOWER MOVEMENT AS TRENDS THAT LAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN CLOSER TO THE SLOWER MODELS. ON TUESDAY GFS/NAM AND ECMWF HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER WISCONSIN OR EASTERN MINNESOTA. ON WEDNESDAY MODELS ALL HAVE COME INTO LINE IN KEEPING THIS UPPER LOW/TROUGH NEAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES RAPIDLY FROM NORTHERN NEVADA/UTAH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE LEAD LOW MOVES ACROSS MISSOURI MONDAY EVENING AND INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN OR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL SPREAD HAS COME MORE INTO LINE WITH THE OLDER NAM/ECMWF. NOW THE FARTHER EAST GFS IS ACTUALLY THE FARTHEST WEST...TAKING THE LOW INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY NOON TUESDAY. HOWEVER ALL MODELS HAVE A RATHER BAGGY LOW...AND NONE REALLY PUSH UP THE WARM SECTOR. THEREFORE RAIN COOLED LOW LEVEL AIR IS EXPECTED...AND MODELS STILL HAVE VERY WEAK ELEVATED CAPE. THEREFORE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH SMALL HAIL POSSIBILITIES. OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT NAM TAKES TIL EVENING TO ELIMINATE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...AND BY THEN MID LEVELS DRY WITH FAIRLY STABLE LAPSE RATES AROUND 4 TO 5C/KM ABOVE 850 MB AND 7.5 C/KM AT 900 MB. THEN A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS ARKANSAS TUESDAY MORNING...AND MOVES IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY AS IT INTENSIFIES...BEFORE REACHING LAKE ERIE AND LAKE HURON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND EAST...BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD AFFECT SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...ESPECIALLY ON THE ECMWF AND DGEX...MAINLY IN THE COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. .THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. NAM/GFS AND ECMWF ALL TAKE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NORTHEAST...AND MERGE IT WITH THE OLD UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS STILL A LITTLE FARTHER WEST AND SLOWER WITH THE RESULTANT UPPER LOW/TROUGH. SURFACE TROUGH ON THE ECMWF AND DGEX EXTENDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA A LITTLE MORE THAN THE GFS. SOME LIGHT QPF ON ECMWF AND DGEX...WITH ONLY SPOTTY HUNDREDTHS SEEN ON THE GFS. 850 MB RH IS RATHER HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...AND WITH EXPECTED STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD AND COLD UPPER TROUGH...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RATHER COOL. .LONG TERM... .FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF FINALLY PUSH THE UPPER TROUGH OFF TO THE EAST AND MID LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS OVER WISCONSIN. SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN SO EXPECT A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER DAY. .SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRINGS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY. GFS IS QUICKER IN MOVING IT TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY MORNING...WHILE ECMWF IS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. BOTH MODELS HAVE SOUTH SURFACE WINDS AND SHOWERS IN WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SATURDAY. GFS HAS A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN BY SATURDAY EVENING...WHILE ECMWF DELAYS THIS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. SLIGHT PREFERENCE TO THE ECMWF. ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST DAY SATURDAY WHILE GFS BRINGS IT IN FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS GRIDS ON THIS. ON SUNDAY THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE IN DRY WEDGE OF THE OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. && .AVIATION... STUBBORN STRATO CU SHOULD BREAK UP A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER IT WILL STILL BE TOUGH TO SEE THE SUN WITH THE HIGH CIRRUS OVERHEAD. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND NORTHERN LOWER MI MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE RAIN WOULD SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI BY MID MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL. && .MARINE... WE COULD SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. BRISK EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AS THE LOW PASSES BY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WOULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...13/MRC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 231835 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 135 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2011 .SHORT TERM... .TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL OOZE INTO WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT. THERE WAS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM ACROSS ALL OF MN AND IOWA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THE CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHERN WI WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS. RUC SNDGS AND MODEL RH HINT AT SOME SCATTERING OF THE LOW CLOUDS POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT FOR A PERIOD OF TIME...BUT SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MORE STRATO CU DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...AROUND 4000 FEET...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AND THICK AS TODAY. BY EARLY SUN MORNING...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THAT ARE SPILLING NORTHWARD FROM LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERNIGHT...AND STAY MAINLY LIGHT ON SUNDAY. A LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER NEAR THE LAKE. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. MODELS ARE JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS/INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY THE SHORTWAVE ON THE GFS AND CRAS APPROACHES ONTARIO WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO THE 12Z NAM AND 06Z DGEX WITH A CLOSED LOW STILL OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN. PREFER THIS SLOWER APPROACH SINCE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY TRENDED FASTER ONLY TO SLOW DOWN WITH A NEWER MODEL RUN. A SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES RAPIDLY FROM NORTHERN NEVADA/UTAH AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY. TIMING ON THIS IS ACTUALLY SIMILAR BY WEDNESDAY EVENING ON GFS/ECMWF AND DGEX. EACH HAS A SMALL LEAD SHORTWAVE THAT RAPIDLY PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/LOWER MICHIGAN. AT THE SURFACE...THE LEAD LOW MOVES ACROSS MISSOURI MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN OR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL SPREAD HAS THE GFS TRACK OF THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF/DGEX/12Z NAM BRINGS THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. EVEN SO LOW IS FAIRLY BAGGY AND DOUBT MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL REACH THE SOUTHEAST WITH RAIN COOLED AIR IN THE MILWAUKEE AND KENOSHA SOUNDING BELOW 925 MB...UNTIL OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL THIS WOULD HAVE MORE OF A THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. EITHER WAY EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. NAM DOES NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED CAPE...SO SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL LIMITED. THEN A SECOND LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT AND MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND EAST...BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION COULD AFFECT SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...ESPECIALLY ON THE ECMWF AND DGEX...MAINLY IN THE COLD UPPER TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM... .THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. NOW 12Z GFS IS SIMILAR TO 00Z ECMWF IN KEEPING THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO FRIDAY...BRINGING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY EVENING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE FAIRLY HIGH 850 MB RH THURSDAY THEN DRYING OUT A LITTLE THURSDAY NIGH. THIS WOULD INDICATE COOL CONDITIONS WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS ON THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY GFS CONTINUE THE FASTER TREND OF BRINGING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION. PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF. .SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM. GFS BRINGS NEXT SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA AREA...WHILE ECMWF HAS MORE AMPLITUDE AND HANGS BACK THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST DAY SATURDAY WHILE GFS BRINGS IT IN FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS GRIDS ON THIS. && .AVIATION... MVFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. EXPECTING BKN CLOUDS TO BECOME SCT SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS WISCONSIN. SCT TO BKN CU POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT ANTICIPATING VFR. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERNIGHT...AND STAY MAINLY LIGHT ON SUNDAY. A LAKE BREEZE IS LIKELY BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AROUND 4 PM OR SOON AFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4 PM. NEARLY CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. A LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY MID SUNDAY MORNING. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ644>646. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...13/MRC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KOHX 211514 AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1014 AM CDT THU APR 21 2011 .UPDATE... SURFACE FRONT THIS MORNING DRAPED DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA DOWN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO EAST TEXAS. TEMPS NORTH OF FRONT GENERALLY IN THE 50S THIS MORNING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. VISBLE SHOWING SOME SUN BREAKING THROUGH CLOUD DECK AT TIMES. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME A BIG PLAYER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN TERMS OF RAINFALL NOT ONLY HERE IN MIDDLE TN BUT ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST BY GFS TO START BACK NORTH TONIGHT AND IS PROGGED TO LAY ALONG THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER BY 12Z FRIDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z SATURDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS FRONT LIFTS UP THROUGH THE MID STATE. FRONT WILL BE NORTH OF MID STATE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY SO EXPECT HIGHER POPS TO BE NORTH OF KENTUCKY BORDER ON FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN EVENT SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WESTERN KY AND NORTHEAST ALONG THE OHIO RIVER BASED ON GFS. CRAS HAS THE HIGHER QPFS CLOSER TO THE MID STATE THAN GFS DOES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. BOYD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CDT THU APR 21 2011/ AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION... FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL WORK BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY THIS EVENING. WE WILL THEREFORE SEE A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY AFTER 00Z. CIGS WILL DROP BELOW 3KFT AFTER 08Z WITH VSBYS IN THE 3-5SM RANGE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT THU APR 21 2011/ DISCUSSION... YESTERDAYS PASSING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW JUST SOUTH/EAST...WHERE SHWRS/ STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR. ML/UL FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY ZONAL WHICH IS KEEPING FRONT FROM REALLY MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT FURTHER PROGRESS SOUTH. NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED IN ML/UL FLOW TODAY...WHICH WILL KEEP BOUNDARY QUASI-STATIONARY. MODERATE MOISTURE HOWEVER CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...AS WELL AS DECENT INSTABILITY JUST ABOVE SHALLOW COLD AIR. WEAK ML UVV EXPECTED TO PASS LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL HELP SET OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHWRS/STORMS...ESPECIALLY EXTREME SOUTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY OF BOUNDARY. BOUNDARY MAKES NORTHWARD PUSH TONITE AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN DEEPENING PLAINS LOW...SETTING UP FROM NEAR THE TN/KY BORDER DOWN ACROSS THE PLATEAU AROUND 12Z FRI. THIS WILL TRANSITION AREA BACK INTO WARM SECTOR...AND DEEPER LAYER OF INSTABILITY. ENHANCED LL FORCING FROM BOUNDARY AND INCREASED INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BRING NUMEROUS SHWRS/STORMS TO THE AREA THIS EVENING...TAPERING OVERNIGHT AS FOCUS SHIFTS INTO KY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES FURTHER NORTH ON FRI...EVENTUALLY ORIENTING ITSELF ACROSS THE OH VALLEY DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHERE IT GOES MORE PARALLEL TO ML/UL FLOW. VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE IN ML/UL FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP BOUNDARY NORTH/WEST INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WHEN UL LOW/TROF FINALLY GET INTO THE PICTURE. THUS STARTING FRI POPS WILL RAMP DOWN THRU MON EVENING AS TEMPS GO ABOVE SEASON NORMALS. ON TUE...FRONT AND SHARP ML/UL TROF FINALLY MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PUSH INTO THE MID-STATE...BUT TAKE ALL OF WED TO MOVE EAST. THIS COULD BE POTENTIAL BIG RAIN IF SOLUTION WORKS OUT. WILL RAMP POPS BACK UP TUE INTO MID-WEEK. HYDROLOGY... OVERALL...EXPECTED PCPN AMOUNTS NEXT 24-36 HOURS STILL BELOW FLOOD GUIDANCE HOWEVER...LOCALIZED FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION... ESPECIALLY TONITE WITH FRONT ON THE MOVE. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 01  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDLH 070824 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 324 AM CDT THU APR 7 2011 .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...KEPT PATCHY DENSE FOG WORDING NEAR THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR UNTIL 14Z AS OBS AND 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOW PERSISTENCE OF AN AREA OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS. A FEW OBS HAVE BEEN DOWN TO 1/4SM. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT SHOULD BRUSH THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA AS IT ROUNDS THE PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS FEATURE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER ERN MT CURRENTLY. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION BRINGS THE COOLER CLOUD TOPS ON IR SAT INTO NWRN CWA AROUND 18Z TODAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THIS TIMING IN SKY/POP FIELDS OVER NEXT 12-18HRS AS IT MATCHED WELL WITH SIMULATED SATELLITE FIELDS FROM NAM AND UW-CRAS MODELS. INTRODUCED SOME LOW CHC POPS FAR NW. LLVL WAA AND FGEN ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR SUCH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND LATEST 4KM WRF NMM SHOWS SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS IMPACTING FAR N/NW MN LATER TODAY. EARLY SIGNALS ARE THAT THIS NARROW BAND OF FORCING MAY BE SETTING UP NEAR ND-SD BORDER NOW WITH SOME RW AND EVEN A CG LTNG STRIKE. AN ENE TRAJECTORY OF THIS AREA OF FORCING WOULD CLIP MOSTLY NRN ITASCA...KOOCHICHING...AND NRN ST. LOUIS COUNTIES. ALL MODELS DRY THINGS OUT ON FRIDAY...SO WE CUT OUT THE POPS DURING THE DAYTIME. IT SHOULD BE A WARM COUPLE DAYS ACROSS THE AREA BUT LOCATION OF DENSER CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE KEY. OVERALL IT APPEARS AS THERE SHOULD BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN BOTH DAYS BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF LESS CLOUDS LOOKS TO BE FURTHER SOUTH. BOTH MET AND MAV MOS HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S IN THESE AREAS THU AND FRI. THIS ACTUALLY LINES UP WELL WITH WHAT YOU WOULD GET MIXING DRY ADIABATICALLY UP TO 850MB DURING THE AFTN BASED ON THE CONSENSUS 850MB TEMPS. BASICALLY...IF IT GETS SUNNY DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO BE ON THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS WAS ACCOUNTED FOR BY BUMPING HIGHS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. .EXTENDED.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THROUGH THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...AND A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY SKIRTING THE NRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY COULD POSSIBLY SLIDE ENOUGH TO THE EAST AND SOUTH TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE WRN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE NORTHLAND. KEPT A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. WILL BE MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION...WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE A SFC/LOW-LVL INVERSION...ACCORDING TO BOTH NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. WILL SEE SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...MAINLY OVER THE WI COUNTIES AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. THE INSTABILITY AXIS SHIFTS WELL TO THE EAST BY MONDAY...BUT THE NORTHLAND COULD STILL SEE LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH LATE MORNING MON. BY LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AND THROUGH TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT AS A SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. THE TIMING OF THE FOLLOWING WEAK WAVE IS STILL IN QUESTION AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS...SO JUST WENT WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS GOING INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND LOWS IN THE 40S THIS WEEKEND AND THE 30S BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CDT THU APR 7 2011/ AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ LIFR CIGS AT THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR MAY MOVE BACK IN AT DLH UNTIL 10Z. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS BEFORE SUNRISE FOR HIB...HYR AND BRD. SHOWERS MAY BRUSH INL BY THURSDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. && .POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 53 33 50 40 / 10 10 10 10 INL 50 33 53 38 / 30 40 10 20 BRD 61 37 58 40 / 10 10 10 10 HYR 57 36 58 40 / 10 10 10 10 ASX 55 35 51 42 / 10 10 10 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...LAMERS EXTENDED....TENTINGER AVIATION....KK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDLH 272330 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 630 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011 .AVIATION... /00Z TAF ISSUANCE/ VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. UW-MADISON CRAS AND NAM MODEL CLOUD FORECASTS KEEP NE MN AND NW WI IN AN AREA OF CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BLOCKED FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES AND HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME SCT CU AROUND 4000-5000 FT AGL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME WITH THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011/ DISCUSSION...SPLIT FLOW IN WESTERLIES CONTINUES WITH CWA REMAINING WELL NORTH OF PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SHORT TERM CYCLOGENESIS. ERN CANADIAN VORTEX IN MID LVLS IS KEEPING SRN BRANCH OF JET STREAM DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OCCURS UNTIL MIDWEEK WHEN ERN VORTEX MOVES EAST AND HT RISES DEVELOP OVER NRN PLAINS. AT SFC... LARGE ANTICYCLONE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WITH LACK OF APPRECIABLE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND LOW PWATS.. SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CLOUDS/PRECIP THROUGH MON/TUE. BY WEDNESDAY...MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF MAY APPROACH AND COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION POPS MAY TREND HIGHER OVER NEXT FEW MDL CYCLES. WILL LEAVE FCST DRY AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH GFS/SREF SUGGEST WRN CWA MAY HAVE MEASUREABLE. GFS IS BIASED WITH REGARD TO TRACE AMOUNTS AND THE PROB OF GEFS PRECIP GREATER THAN .05" IS VERY LOW. EC IS DRY AND WILL LEAN WITH THIS IDEA FOR NOW. TRIMMED PREVIOUS GRIDS BACK ON CLOUD AMOUNTS AND LOWERED SOME OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS WITH PERSISTENCE MAINTAINING SOME CHILLY OVERNIGHT READINGS. MAX TEMPS STILL BELOW NORMAL RANGE UNTIL WED. EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY UPPER FLOW WILL FEATURE FAST FLOW COMING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARD/OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG THE WEST COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER/NEAR THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY...WITH A COUPLE DIFFERENT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. WE CONTINUED OUR POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WOULD DICTATE A MIX OF PRECIP TYPES WILL BE POSSIBLE. BRIEF RIDGING SATURDAY SHOULD DRY WEATHER. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS CHANGED QUITE A BIT FROM IT'S 00Z RUN...AND ALSO DIFFERS FROM THE GFS. PREVIOUSLY...BOTH MODELS HAD A LOW IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLANS BY SUNDAY...WITH PRECIP WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE NORTHLAND ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER WAVE AND TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT. NOW...THE ECMWF IS SLOWER DUE TO IT CLOSING OFF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHWEST CA/BAJA REGION. WE HAVE SOME POPS GOING FOR SUNDAY...AND COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. NO REAL BIG WARM-UP EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...GENERALLY HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE FORTIES WITH LOWS TWENTY TO THIRTY. && .POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 2 33 11 37 / 0 0 0 0 INL 1 32 2 38 / 0 0 0 10 BRD 3 36 11 38 / 0 0 0 10 HYR -1 39 8 39 / 0 0 0 0 ASX 5 37 9 37 / 0 0 0 10 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...LAMERS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KOHX 260508 AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1208 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011 .UPDATE...FOR 26/06Z AVIATION FORECAST && .AVIATION... BEGINNING TO SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASING OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AS ADVERTISED BY EARLIER MODELS INCLUDING GFS AND RAPID UPDATE (HRRR). CRAS ALSO BREAKS RAIN OUT FIRST ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WORKS IT ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEAR ALABAMA BORDER IN THE OVERNIGHT. QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN ALABAMA. FRONT WILL SLIP SLOWLY NORTHWARD BUT NOT MUCH FARTHER THAN THE ALABAMA BORDER. THEREFORE WILL ONLY MENTION LIGHT RAIN IN BOTH BNA AND CSV THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT ANY TSTMS TO REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. BOYD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2011/ DISCUSSION...CURRENT PRECIP HAS THINNED OUT A GOOD DEAL IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. FRONT IS STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER NORTH MS/AL/GA. ALL MODELS REDEVELOP PRECIP OVER THE AREA OF THE FRONT AND A FEW DEGREES TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. HAD CONSIDERED LOWERING POPS...BUT DIDN'T WANT TO GIVE THE WRONG IMPRESSION SINCE THE SFC LOW IS STILL TO OUR SOUTHWEST...OVER THE ARKLATEX. MORE PRECIP SHOULD DEVELOP BY 09-10Z OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIP CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE SFC LOW MOVES ENEWD ACROSS NORTHERN MS/AL/GA. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT ZONE PACKAGE WITH THE EXPECTATION OF MORE PRECIP TO COME. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2011/ UPDATE...FOR 26/00Z AVIATION FORECAST AVIATION... QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LAYING BETWEEN HUNTSVILLE AND BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA THEN BACK TO JUST NORTH OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI...TO JUST SOUTH OF MEMPHIS...THEN BACK ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. TEMPS JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE CHILLY AND IN THE 40S ACROSS TENNESSEE WHILE JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S AND 70S. WILL NEED TO KEEP CLOSE TABS ON FRONTAL POSITION NEXT 24 HOURS AS MUCH OF THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EVERYTHING I'VE LOOKED AT TELLS ME THE FRONT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA...POSSIBLY REACHING THE TENNESSEE/ALABAMA BORDER SATURDAY EVENING. BOYD PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2011/ DISCUSSION... IN THE NEAR SHORT TERM...THE EURO MODEL CLEARLY HAS THE BEST GRASP ON THIS CURRENT SYSTEM. MODELS ARE LOOKING AS THOUGH THEY WILL MATCH UP A LITTLE BETTER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS HOWEVER. STILL EXPECTING OVERRUNNING TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. WE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF ICE PELLETS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST EARLIER TODAY. A CLOSE LOOK AT THE SOUNDING DOES INDICATE WET BULB WARMING WITH TIME INTO THIS EVENING. THUS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF ANY ICE PELLET ACTIVITY. UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING RAINFALL TO THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STORM TRACK APPEARS TO BE A SOUTHERLY ONE WHEREBY THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN AL. THIS WILL EQUATE TO A LESSER CHANCE OF TSTMS WHILE TEMPS WILL BE COOLER. A LOOK AT ALL THE MODELS SUPPORT THE SOUTHERLY TRACK. THEREFORE...FOR THE FORECAST I WILL INCLUDE JUST A CHANCE OF T SOUTH AND NO T NORTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK AS THOUGH A HALF INCH OR SO CAN BE EXPECTED AT MOST AREAS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NT. THE SHOWERS WILL END EARLY SUNDAY. FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...I WILL BE UNDERCUTTING THE MAV MAX TEMPS...PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY AS A WET AND RAW PATTERN WILL REMAIN. IN THE EXT FCST...A RETURN FLOW WITH A SHORT LIVED WARMING TREND WILL SET UP ON MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN PULL ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND TRACK ACROSS KY BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS BACK TO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL PLACE THE MID STATE IN MORE OF THE WARM SECTOR. THUS...IT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SVR STORMS. OTW...HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 01  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 201951 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 251 PM CDT SUN MAR 20 2011 .SHORT TERM... TONIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM WARM ADVECTION DRIVEN CLUSTER SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS SETTING UP INTO THE EVENING WITH NOSE OF 250 MILLIBAR JET DRIVING INTO CWA WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR...SURFACE THROUGH 850 MILLIBARS. SPC MESO PAGE SHOWS PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECTING TOWARDS SOUTHERN WI. SURFACE MOIST AXIS GETS DRAWN INTO FAR SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING. IN FACT TEMPS WILL LIKELY GET A BOOST THIS EVENING AS SOME OF THE WARMER TEMPS ARRIVE FROM IOWA/NORTHERN ILLINOIS. MAIN QUESTION IS LOWER LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS. WITH BETTER HEATING FURTHER SOUTH APPEARS SURFACE BASED STORMS OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER ELEVATED CAPE OF SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL WARRANTS THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH THE SURFACE LOW WHISKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT THE WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST BRINGING END TO PRECIP. LOW LEVEL RH PROGS KEEP WRAPAROUND STROTOCU SHIELD ACROSS NORTHERN WI. MONDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE HIGH AXIS SLIDES ACROSS WI. COLUMN LOOKS FAIRLY DRY. SOME SATURATION AT AND ABOVE 15K FEET. APPEARS NAM MOS TEMPS TOO COLD. LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS MOS TEMPS. COOLER LAKESIDE AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE. .MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SECOND SHORTWAVE IS EJECTED...MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AS MID/UPPER RIDGE MOVE INTO WISCONSIN. THE SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS AREA TUESDAY. THIS BRINGS 12Z NAM SURFACE LOW INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER/FATHER NORTH INTO FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTHWEST IOWA. 12Z NAM INDICATES UPWARD MOTION BECOMING QUITE STRONG AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND TOWARDS SUNRISE OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. MID LEVELS QUICKLY SATURATE WHILE DRY LAYER BELOW 700 MB IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOISTEN. EVAPORATIVE COOLING RESULTS IN A WINDOW OF SNOW POSSIBILITIES ESPECIALLY TOWARD SHEBOYGAN TUESDAY MORNING. EVEN THERE WARM NOSE EVENTUALLY REACHES 2C AROUND 750 MB DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH POSSIBLE SLEET. WEAK ELEVATED CAPE MAINLY SOUTH OF AROUND 20 J/KG LIFTING FROM NEAR 750 MB TO 600 MB TUESDAY NIGHT SO ELEVATED THUNDER POSSIBLE. SOME ELEVATED CAPE CONTINUES TUESDAY SOUTH...UP TO 50 J/KG. QPF TOTALS INCREASE DURING THE DAY BUT MAINLY MODERATE AMOUNTS. 24 HOUR TOTALS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 0.25 TO 0.60 ON NAM WITH 0.33 TO 0.85 INCHES ON THE GFS. .TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BY WEDNESDAY 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF PUSHES THE SHORTWAVE INTO WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE LOW THEN MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE 12Z NAM/12Z CRAS BUT ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA ON THE GFS/ECMWF. THE SURFACE LOW REACHES NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AGAIN WITH A BIT MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ON THE GFS/ECMWF...MORE TOWARDS THE ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN BORDER. ALL MODELS KEEPING 540 THICKNESS VALUES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ONLY THE FAR NORTH...MAINLY TOWARDS FOND DU LAC/SHEBOYGAN DOES NAM SOUNDINGS HAVE A SNOW/SLEET POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES/COOL AND THICKNESS VALUES LOWER WITH A MIX/CHANGEOVER OCCURRING OVER FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OFF 12Z NAM. NEW 12Z ECMWF IS THE COLLEST OF THE MODELS. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AROUND 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES WITH THIS EVENT WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WHEN PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN. NAM INDICATES BIGGEST WINTER THREAT WOULD BE TOWARD SHEBOYGAN/FOND DU LAC. HOWEVER GFS IS WARMER ALOFT WITH NO SNOW/SLEET POTENTIAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO COOL AT THE SURFACE...BUT REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. DON'T ANTICIPATE MUCH FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL SINCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE FREEZING. ONLY POTENTIAL AT THIS MOMENT APPEARS FAR NORTHEAST. OVER THE SOUTH ELEVATED CAPE UP TO 232 J/KG IF LIFTED FROM 850 MB. TEMPS NEAR 10Z AT THIS LAYER WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7C/KM SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH SMALL HAIL. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM THIS EVENTS WOULD ADD TO RIVER RISES FROM THE RECENT SNOW MELT. BY WEDNESDAY SOUNDINGS COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW OVER THE NORTH HALF...BUT BY THEN ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. THICNESS VALUES INDICATE SNOW SOUTH...BUT FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW ENOUGH OF A WARM LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB FOR MAINLY LIQUID OR A MIX. .LONG TERM... .THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND EXTENDS SOMEWHAT INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE COLD UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW SOME STRATOCUMULUS WOULD LINGER...ESPECIALLY EAST DURING DAYTIME HEATING. MEANWHILE...A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE MINNESOTA AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PREFER THE DRY ECMWF/DGEX OVER THE 12Z GFS. MODELS TRY TO BRING A STRAY WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS WISCONSIN ON THE GFS AND FARTHER SOUTH OVER MISSOURI ON THE ECMWF. .SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS EJECTED TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY...BUT IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH ON THE 00Z ECMWF. BY SUNDAY MODELS TAKE THIS SHORTWAVE TOWARD WISCONSIN. 12Z GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS. AS A RESULT SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN ON THE 00Z ECMWF BUT THE GFS DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW THAT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI SPREADING RAIN INTO WISCONSIN. GFS IS MUCH SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THIS AND LOOKS MORE LIKE THE 06Z DGEX. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH THE CONSENSUS GRIDS BUT LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF. && .AVIATION... WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM IOWA AND ILLINOIS...PLENTY OF IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS. THE WARM FRONT PROGGD TO LIFT BARELY INTO SOUTHERN WI BEFORE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT SWING THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS PASSAGE OF THESE FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE CEILINGS/VSBYS. WRAPAROUND LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED TO STAY ACROSS NORTHERN WI LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. EVENING CONVECTIVE DEVLOPMENT THIS STILL A QUESTION MARK. DECENT DYNAMICS...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THOUGH INSTABILITY NOT GREAT. AT THIS POINT EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STORMS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THESE IN THE TAFS YET AS COVERAGE/TIMING/DURATION UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE... BRISK SOUTHEAST WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS THE LOW PASSES NEARBY THIS EVENING THERE COULD BE A LULL. BUT AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST THE POST-FRONTAL GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP A BIT LATER TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT MONDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ VERY SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...10/COLLAR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KOHX 191503 AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1003 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011 .UPDATE... COOL FRONT ALL THE WAY DOWN IN CENTRAL ALABAMA AT 19/15Z WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WORKING INTO MID STATE. TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S NORTH OF OHIO RIVER WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN KY. BULK OF STRATOCUMULUS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND SLIPPING SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. ALTHOUGH CONTRAST IS POOR...CRAS HAS LOW STUFF WORKING SOUTH DURING THE DAY WHILE BRINGING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BACK ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OF MID STATE EARLY THIS EVENING. BELIEVE ONCE SUN GETS OUT WE WILL SEE TEMPS START TO CLIMB BUT MAY FALL SHORT OF CURRENT FORECAST SO MAY HAVE TO UPDATE AND TRIM AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN A BIT. IF LOW LEVEL INVERSION COULD GET WIPED OUT THROUGH MIXING WE WOULD MAKE CURRENT TEMP FORECAST SO WILL WAIT AND GIVE FORECAST A CHANCE TO FLY. ALSO...CANT RULE OUT A SHOWER NEAR ALABAMA BORDER BUT DOESNT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE MUCH. BOYD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011/ UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. AVIATION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. UNCERTAINTIES...CONTINUED SWD PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL/MOISTURE MOVEMENT...EROSION OF LOW LEVEL VFR CEILINGS...MID LEVEL CEILING DEVELOPMENT AOA 20/00Z-20/12Z...ALONG WITH LOCAL IMPACTS. WITH WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD...AND A REDUCTION EXPECTED IN POST FRONTAL MOISTURE POTENTIAL...WILL GO WITH VCSH REMARKS ONLY THRU 19/18Z. EXPECT AS SFC/LOW LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED FROM A0A 19/18Z-20/00Z...MID LEVEL BKN AC CEILINGS WILL BE PREVALENT AT BNA/CSV. AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU 20/12Z...AC DECK WITH BECOME OVC IN NATURE. PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 326 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011/ DISCUSSION... SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL KY ATTM. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. THUS...THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP IS POST FRONTAL. A CLOSE LOOK AT THE GFS AND NAM 850 MB MOISTURE PROFILE SHOWS THAT THE MODELS ARE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE. ADDITIONALLY...WITH TIME THE MOISTURE AXIS OVER KY WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BUT IT WILL DECREASE IN TERMS OF THE MOISTURE LEVELS. THEREFORE...FOR TODAY...I WILL INCLUDE A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR THE MORNING WITH A SLT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THEN... PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NO MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AL TODAY. IT WILL THEN RETURN QUICKLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY. WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY TRAVERSE THE AREA AND PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS FOR SUNDAY. OTW...PARTIAL CLOUDINESS THROUGH MONDAY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...MAV NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE SO WONT DIFFER BY MUCH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO PREVAIL. IN THE EXT FCST...STILL LOOKING AT A MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A WEST TO EAST COLD FRONT THAT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD AND BRING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE AREA TUES NT THROUGH WED NT. COLDER TEMPS TO FOLLOW. EURO SOLUTION LOOKS WET ON FRIDAY BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT FCST WHICH LEANS TOWARD THE DRIER GFS SOLUTION. FOR THE EXT TEMPS...MEX NUMBERS LOOK BEATABLE AT TIMES. WILL GO WARMER IN THE PRE FRONTAL SECTOR ON TUES/TUES NT...COOLER POST FRONTAL. HOPING TO SCORE BIG AS THE EURO SOLUTION MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE WED NT FROPA. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 01  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KOHX 101201 AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 601 AM CST THU MAR 10 2011 .UPDATE...FOR 10/12Z AVIATION FORECAST && .AVIATION... SURFACE LOW ALONG SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WHILE UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA KEEPING CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP GOING THROUGH MID-DAY AT BNA AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AT CSV. CRAS HOLDS ONTO LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 11/06Z AT BNA AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND AT CSV. BOYD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CST THU MAR 10 2011/ DISCUSSION... FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED. FORECAST QUANDARIES...VERY INTERESTING REGIONAL RADAR DISPLAY AS OF 09Z...WITH LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE NW...AND LIGHT RAIN MOVING S TO N ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION. THIS IS LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW...BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS THE MID STATE. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES TO SLOWLY PROGRESS W TO E ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY...PROVIDING FOR A CONTINUANCE OF CLDY SKIES AND KEEPING TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. DO NOT EXPECT A LOT OF ACCUMULATING RAINFALL WITH THIS PASSAGE...AND WILL GO WITH A CHANCE W TO LIKELY ACROSS PLATEAU REGION FOR TODAY. TEMPS MAY DROP ENOUGH THIS MORNING FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE N CUMBERLAND PLATEAU ALSO. AS UPPER LEVEL FEATURES MOVE TO THE E TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAINFALL FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65... WITH AGAIN THE CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. A OVERALL BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE PLATEAU REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH SOME SLIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. AS FIRST MENTIONED IN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON'S AFD...WILL CONTINUE WITH REASONING OF ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. WILL GO WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S...UPPER 20S PLATEAU. LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL WARMUP IN TEMPS TO MORE SEASONABLE NORMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR... WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND LOWS AROUND 40. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AS NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES... AND WENT WITH A CONSENSUS SOLUTION IN AGREEMENT WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES...WITH HIGHS WARMING THRU THE 60S...LOWS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHWRS SUN NIGHT THRU MOST OF THE DAY ON TUE. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 01  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KOHX 190522 AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1122 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2011 .UPDATE...FOR 19/06Z AVIATION FORECAST && .AVIATION... SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DIMINSHING RATHER QUICKLY LAST HOUR AND EXPECT TREND TO CONTINUE. COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AT LATE EVENING WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. CURRENTLY CLEARING LINE JUST NORTH OF MID STATE WILL SINK SOUTHWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ANY CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 295 KELVIN SURFACE WILL GET UNDERWAY LATE TONIGHT THAT WILL BRING A RETURN OF CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE MID STATE BETWEEN 19/12Z AND 19/15Z IN BNA AND AROUND 19/18Z TO CSV. THIS IS BEST DISPLAYED IN LATEST CRAS RUN WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DEVELOPMENT. BANKING ON DRIER AIR NOW OVER SOUTHERN KENTUCKY TO WORK DOWN INTO MID STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND KEEP FOG FROM FORMING AT BNA BUT CSV MAY GET A TEMPO PERIOD OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT UNTIL ABOUT 19/10Z TAKING THE VSBY DOWN TO 5SM BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ALONG THE PLATEAU. BOYD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2011/ UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE NOT SINKING SWD AS FAST AS ORIGINAL FORECAST ANTICIPATED. HAVE SLOWED THE PROCESS DOWN ACCORDINGLY. REMAINDER ALL OK. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2011/ UPDATE...FOR 19/00Z AVIATION FORECAST AVIATION... TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE MID 50S ACROSS NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH MID 60S ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA. ANALYZED COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT 18/23Z WITH POST FRONTAL SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND IN SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF KENTUCKY NORTHWARD AND BACK INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS. MODELS SLIP FRONT INTO NORTH ALABAMA BY 19/06Z AND STALL IT ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AROUND 19/18Z BEFORE TURNING IT AROUND AS A WARM FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. BASICALLY LOOKING FOR MVFR AT BNA THROUGH ABOUT 19/05Z DUE TO CEILINGS/VSBYS AND AT CSV UNTIL 19/06Z WITH LATE NIGHT FOG DEVELOPING AT CSV FROM 19/08Z THROUGH 19/14Z. WIND MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING AT BNA PLUS DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN SO DID NOT INCLUDE FOG AT BNA FOR THOSE REASONS. WHAT BREAK WE HAVE IN CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THEY RETURN QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE 290 KELVIN ISENTROPIC SURFACE. BOYD PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2011/ DISCUSSION... FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG THE TN/KY BORDER. A SOLID BAND OF SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD AT THIS TIME. COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. THUS...WILL CARRY 20-40 POPS FOR THE MID STATE FOR TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THUS...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL END BY SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...WE WILL SEE OUR SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A STORM SYSTEM GETS CRANKED UP OVER THE MIDWEST. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. THUS...RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN BY MONDAY. FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...GFS NUMBERS LOOK BEATABLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SFC ANALYSIS IS NOT SHOWING COLD AIR NORTH OF BOUNDARY RIGHT NOW. THEREFORE...THE 37F LOW AT BNA LOOKS TOO COOL. SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WE SHOULD KEEP THE CLOUDINESS SO I WILL UNDERCUT THE GFS MAX TEMPS. IN THE EXT FCST...WE'LL SEE CAA RETURN ON MON NT...BUT SOUNDINGS STILL KEEP FREEZING LEVELS TOO HIGH FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP. WE'LL SEE A WARM FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. AS MOISTURE RETURNS...WE'LL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER THAN NORMAL VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 01  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KRIW 232216 AFDRIW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 316 PM MST THU DEC 23 2010 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHED SE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEHIND OUR SHORTWAVE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPED IN QUITE A FEW OF OUR ERN AND SRN ZONES AND CONTINUED OUT WEST. CPR WARMED TO ABOUT 40F EARLY THIS MORNING WHEN THE SHORTWAVE WENT THROUGH BUT THEN THE COLD FRONT PUSHED BACK SOUTH AND TEMPS WERE COLDER THE REST OF THE DAY ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THAT WORKED ITS WAY SOUTH FROM TWENTYMILE HILL. FOG PERSISTED MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE UPPER GREEN AND JACKSON VALLEY. THE MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WILL FOG AND ITS DURATION AND THICKNESS. SOUNDINGS LOOK PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR FOG OUT WEST TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE LOW LYING CENTRAL AND WRN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE SOUNDINGS LOOK CLASSIC BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH JUST TWO NEGATIVES TO BE CONCERNED WITH. ONE IS LACK OF SNOW COVER IN THE CENTRAL WIND RIVER BASIN WHILE OTHER AREAS GENERALLY HAVE SNOW. THE SECOND ITEM IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUNDINGS DON'T SUPPORT ANY THICKER HIGH CLOUDS BUT CRAS IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EVEN SOME LEE ENHANCEMENT. LEANING TOWARDS THE FOG SCENARIO BASED ON TODAY'S TREND WITH FOG LINGERING ALL DAY IN SPOTS AND THE IMPRESSIVE WARMING ALOFT. CLOUDS MAY THICKEN ENOUGH BY SUNDAY MORNING TO BREAK UP THE FOG IN THE WEST EARLIER BUT IT COULD CONTINUE FURTHER EAST. MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT I DIDN'T CHANGE OUR SLIGHT CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING OR CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR WEST. LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AFTER MONDAY. THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SPLIT THE TROUGH AND HAS MUCH LESS PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THAN THE GFS. THE GFS SWINGS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH INTO THE REGION WITH A DECENT SHOT OF PRECIP FOR THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN SCATTERED PRECIP IN THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THE CANADIAN MODEL SIDES WITH THE ECMWF MODEL. THE 06Z NAM SIDES WITH THE GFS SO THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY. WILL KEEP THE PRECIP IN THE FORECAST AND MADE ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ONCE THIS TROUGH EXITS THE WEATHER PATTERN QUICKLY GOES TO A MOIST WEST NORTHWEST FLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SNOW RETURNING TO THE WESTERN MTS. THEN THE FLOW BACKS TO THE SW WED AS THE NEXT TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND THEN HEADS TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY. GFS SEEMS TOO FAST WITH ITS TROUGH SPEED WHILE THE ECMWF IS DIGGING A SHARPER TROUGH...WHICH SEEMS TO BE THE BETTER IDEA THIS SEASON. SO THE WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH YEARS END IN THE WEST WHILE THE EAST STAYS MAINLY DRY NEXT MON THROUGH WED. THE EAST MAY SEE SOME PRECIP NEXT THURS. AS FOR TEMPS...A MILD DAY ON SUNDAY THEN COLDER FOR MONDAY...SEASONAL HIGHS AND LOWS NEXT TUE THROUGH THURS. AVIATION... A STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ENSUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROPENSITY FOR OCCASIONAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON A PATCHY LOW DECK OF CLOUDS BETWEEN 3 AND 4K AGL OVERLAYING ANOTHER LOWER CLOUD DECK AT AROUND 1K WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL AFFECT KJAC...KRKS AND KAFO. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND EXIT THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR INCLUDING KCPR AND THE BIG HORN MTNS. THESE CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MTN OBSCURATIONS. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL REFORM THIS EVENING AND EXPAND AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE BASINS AND VALLEYS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL AFFECT KRKS...KBPI...KPNA AND KJAC. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND BIG HORN BASIN THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. THE FOG IN THESE BASINS WILL BE CONCENTRATED PRIMARILY ALONG THE BIG HORN RIVER AND THE VICINITY OF BOYSEN RESERVOIR. THIS PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT THE VICINITIES OF KWRL AND KRIW. AFTER THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE AFTER 18Z FRIDAY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. A WEST SOUTHWEST BREEZE OF 10 TO 15 MPH FROM KRKS TO KCPR WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH FROM THE RED DESERT TO KCPR. FIRE WEATHER... STEEP BASIN AND VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BLOW AT TIMES FROM THE RED DESERT TO CASPER AND EAST SLOPE OF THE CENTRAL WYOMING MOUNTAINS. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SKRBAC LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...LIPSON FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 221951 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 151 PM CST WED DEC 22 2010 .SHORT TERM... .TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE HIGH WILL BRING QUIET WEATHER. MAIN QUESTIONS ARE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES AND FOG. DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST HELPED BRING PARTIAL CLEARING IN SPOTS EARLIER TODAY. PARTIAL CLOUDINESS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT LATER TONIGHT ACROSS LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE LAKE...AS THE HIGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. LOWER DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL...DROPPING INTO THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT RANGE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS WOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL TO LOW LYING AREAS...DESPITE LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS INLAND. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON NAM/GFS/RUC SHOWING A THIN SATURATED LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE DEVELOPING TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILDER IF THIS OCCURS. THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST. FOR NOW...THINK THAT SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...AND WILL LEAVE OUT FOG MENTION WITH THE DRIER AIR. EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. NAM KEEPS LOW STRATUS AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH GFS MIXING OUT THIS LAYER. WILL KEEP PARTLY SUNNY SKIES GOING FOR THURSDAY...WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGHS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. .FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MODELS HAVE ONE SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND ILLINOIS...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN WEATHER PRODUCE WILL BE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE...ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY BRING SOME CLOUDS AND LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. NAM LAPSE RATES ARE NOT VERY STEEP AND WEAK ISOTHERMAL LAYER EXISTS ABOVE 900 THROUGH 775 MB. NAM SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO FAIRLY DRY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS. PREFER THE GFS/ECMWF/CRAS WHICH BRINGS SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS/ECMWF HAS MORE MOISTURE WITH THE FRIDAY SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...ENOUGH FOR A DUSTING OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. LAKE POTENTIAL IS GREATER MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS STEEPER LAPSE RATES EXTEND TO 800 MB ON THE GFS ALONG WITH A FAIRLY SATURATED LOWER LEVELS. NAM HAS A LOWER INVERSION WITH THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES ONLY EXTENDING TO 900 MB. .SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AREA. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS IN THE COLDER NORTH/NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTH AND CLOSES OFF. MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE EVOLUTION...BUT MAIN DIFFERENCES MATTER MOST TO AREAS TO OUR EAST. OVER OUR AREA COLD NORTH FLOW DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS MINNESOTA AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE NORTHEAST FLOW OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES TO 750 MB OFF THE GFS SOUNDINGS AND LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL. .LONG TERM... .MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE EASTERN U.S. AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...LOWERING THE INVERSION LEVEL AND ENDING THE LAKE SNOW POTENTIAL. .TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM UPPER FLOW BECOME MORE ZONAL. AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. HOWEVER ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY AS LARGE HIGH CUTS OFF ANY GULF MOISTURE. THEREFORE PREFER THE DRIER 00Z ECMWF OVER THE GFS AT THIS TIME. GFS BRINGS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. && .AVIATION... EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING ACROSS TAF SITES...AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT SHOULD BRING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO KMSN AND KUES BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z THURSDAY...AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TO KMKE AND KENW. SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR FOG AND IFR TO LIFR STRATUS AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z THURSDAY...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. && .MARINE... LOCAL WEB CAMERAS INDICATING THAT WAVE ACTION HAS SUBSIDED SOMEWHAT FROM EARLIER TODAY. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...AS WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. THUS...WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 21Z. BRISK NORTH WINDS AND HIGH WAVES MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS...AND A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ AVIATION/MARINE...08/WOOD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KOHX 170535 AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1135 PM CST THU DEC 16 2010 .UPDATE...FOR AVIATION FORECAST 17/06Z && .AVIATION... COLD FRONT NOW WELL EAST OF PLATEAU WITH LOW CLOUDS BACK TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH IFR CONDITIONS FROM THE PLATEAU TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER. FREEZING FOG HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE PLATEAU WITH CSV DOWN TO 1/4SM IN FZFG AT THIS TIME. DONT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT AT CSV UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. WITH FREEZING FOG ALONG THE PLATEAU EXPECT BLACK ICE TO FORM IN THIS AREA ON ROADWAYS. EXPECT CSV TO STAY IFR GOOD PART OF THE MORING BUT GO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND VFR TOWARDS SUNSET ON FRIDAY. AS FOR BNA FEEL MVFR WILL HOLD IN GENERAL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT AM SEEING HOLDS IN LOW DECK TO OUR WEST AT THIS TIME AND IT IS POSSIBLE WHERE SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING TAKES PLACE FOG WILL FORM QUICKLY AND LOWER VSBYS DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH BLACK ICE FORMING ON ROAD SURFACES. BNA SHOULD GO VFR AFTER SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LOW CONFIDENCE ON BNA TERMINAL FORECAST FIRST 6 HOURS. LOOKING AT CRAS AND THE MOISTURE DEEPENING IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS BELIEVE FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BOYD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CST THU DEC 16 2010/ UPDATE... LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...AND THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO BE HERE ALL NIGHT. COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES. PATCHY DENSE FOG SHOWING UP ON THE PLATEAU AS WELL AS PATCHY DRIZZLE. AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT...EXPECTED DRIZZLE MAY FREEZE. WILL ADD PATCHY FOG/FZDZ TO EAST. LEAVE REMAINING AS IS FOR NOW. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CST THU DEC 16 2010/ UPDATE...FOR 17/00Z AVIATION FORECAST AVIATION... FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING DOWN ALONG NORTHEAST CORNER OF ALABAMA NEAR SCOTTSBORO THEN UP JUST WEST OF CHATTANOOGA THEN EXTENDS THROUGH EASTERN TENNESSEE NEAR KNOXVILLE. POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS (IFR) BEHIND THE FRONT ALL THE WAY BACK ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND VSBYS. ALTHOUGH OHX DOPPLER IS PPINE EXPECT LIGHT DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AT BNA AND THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AT CSV. WITH FOG CONTINUING ALONG WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE WE COULD SEE SOME BLACK ICE CONDITONS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS DIP BELOW FREEZING AND INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. WOULD NOT EXPECT MVFR AT BNA UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY AND NOT AT CSV UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. CRAS IS HINTING AT A VERY LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP EVENT FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS MID STATE. BOYD PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST THU DEC 16 2010/ SHORT TERM (THRU SUN)... TNGT...LINGERING MOISTURE AND H8 TEMPS AROUND 0 C COULD GENERATE A FEW FLURRIES/PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS EVENING IN THE NORTH. MAINLY A CLOUDY SKY W/LOWS MID-UPR 20S. SFC HIGH PRES ACR W CANADA-CNTL PLAINS WL CONTINUE TO FEED COLD AIR INTO MID TN FRI. HIGHER UP...MODELS SHIFT A H5 S/W TROF OVR THE REGION FRI NGT-SAT WITH A CHANCE OF PCPN. MOISTURE LIMITED W/CHC SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES AT THIS POINT. SFC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE AS POLAR JET DROPS SOUTH SAT. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 30S THIS WEEKEND. LONG TERM (MON-THU)... WARMER MON AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION MON NGT-TUE W/CHC OF RAIN. COULD BE A RAIN SNOW MIX NORTH NEAR THE KY LINE. COLDER AIR RUSHES IN AS MOISTURE DEPARTS TUE AFTERNOON. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 01  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KOHX 170013 AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 613 PM CST THU DEC 16 2010 .UPDATE...FOR 17/00Z AVIATION FORECAST && .AVIATION... FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING DOWN ALONG NORTHEAST CORNER OF ALABAMA NEAR SCOTTSBORO THEN UP JUST WEST OF CHATTANOOGA THEN EXTENDS THROUGH EASTERN TENNESSEE NEAR KNOXVILLE. POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS (IFR) BEHIND THE FRONT ALL THE WAY BACK ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND VSBYS. ALTHOUGH OHX DOPPLER IS PPINE EXPECT LIGHT DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AT BNA AND THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AT CSV. WITH FOG CONTINUING ALONG WITH LIGHT DRIZZLE WE COULD SEE SOME BLACK ICE CONDITONS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS DIP BELOW FREEZING AND INTO THE MIDDLE 20S. WOULD NOT EXPECT MVFR AT BNA UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY AND NOT AT CSV UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. CRAS IS HINTING AT A VERY LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP EVENT FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS MID STATE. BOYD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CST THU DEC 16 2010/ SHORT TERM (THRU SUN)... TNGT...LINGERING MOISTURE AND H8 TEMPS AROUND 0 C COULD GENERATE A FEW FLURRIES/PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS EVENING IN THE NORTH. MAINLY A CLOUDY SKY W/LOWS MID-UPR 20S. SFC HIGH PRES ACR W CANADA-CNTL PLAINS WL CONTINUE TO FEED COLD AIR INTO MID TN FRI. HIGHER UP...MODELS SHIFT A H5 S/W TROF OVR THE REGION FRI NGT-SAT WITH A CHANCE OF PCPN. MOISTURE LIMITED W/CHC SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES AT THIS POINT. SFC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE AS POLAR JET DROPS SOUTH SAT. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID-UPR 30S THIS WEEKEND. LONG TERM (MON-THU)... WARMER MON AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION MON NGT-TUE W/CHC OF RAIN. COULD BE A RAIN SNOW MIX NORTH NEAR THE KY LINE. COLDER AIR RUSHES IN AS MOISTURE DEPARTS TUE AFTERNOON. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 01  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 150823 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 223 AM CST WED DEC 15 2010 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. AT 300 MB ONE JET MAX ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MOVES OFF...AS A SECOND PUSHES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PLACES SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN MORE OR LESS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF DEPARTING JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING JET MAX. RESULTANT UPPER DIVERGENCE...COMBINES WITH LOW/MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER DRY WITH MODERATE 700 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. SATURATION OCCURS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 2 G/KG OF MOISTURE AT 700 MB TONIGHT...WITH ALMOST 3 G/KG IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES LIKELY IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN QPF...BUT GFS SPREADS LIGHT QPF A BIT FARTHER NORTHEAST. CRAS MODEL IS A BIT FARTHER NORTH OF THE OTHER MODELS IN ITS MAX QPF...AND A BIT SLOWER. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW OVER LAFAYETTE COUNTY WHERE A DECENT CHANCE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LINGER THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. .THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM FORCING TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AS STRONGER WAVE PULLS AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH WEAKER WAVE WASHING OUT AS IT SLIDES SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. STILL ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT UP TO ANOTHER HALF INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY LINGERING SNOW WILL WIND DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES IN THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S...WILL FEEL ON THE MILD SIDE COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. .FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON FRIDAY...MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE CANADIAN MODEL STILL SPITTING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS MOISTURE VERY SHALLOW ON GFS SOUNDINGS. SRN WI WILL THEN BE CAUGHT BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE ON SATURDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. COLDER AIR WILL RETURN AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH...WITH HIGHS A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND. .SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM MODELS ALL SHOWING GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A WAVE OR TWO SWINGING THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. STILL POOR AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AS TO TIMING/STRENGTH/LOCATION OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES...SO JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THROUGH MONDAY. NOT CURRENTLY SEEING ANY FEATURES WARRANTING POPS FOR TUESDAY. THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES ARE QUESTIONABLE...SEEMS REASONABLE THAT PERSISTENT TROUGHING PATTERN WILL KEEP MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES GOING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION... THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT. AT 300 MB ONE JET MAX ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MOVES OFF...AS A SECOND PUSHES ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS PLACES SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN MORE OR LESS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF DEPARTING JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF APPROACHING JET MAX. RESULTANT UPPER DIVERGENCE...COMBINES WITH LOW/MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...ESPECIALLY AT MADISON AND KENOSHA. IFR CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY IN AREAS WEST AND SOUTH OF MADISON TONIGHT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ067. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...DDV/07 AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ/06  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 290850 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 250 AM CST MON NOV 29 2010 TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH 500MB TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS MOVES EAST AND BECOMES MORE NEGATIVE TILT THIS EVENING AS STRONG UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE STRONGER UPPER DIVERGENCE EARLY THIS EVENING. STRONG 850 MB UPPER JET BECOMES MORE FOCUSED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THE SAME TIME. AS A RESULT STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING WITH UP TO 15 MICROBARS/SEC OF UPWARD MOTION AT 700 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO OVER 0.5 INCH BY THIS EVENING...AND APPROACHES 1 INCH IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. UNTIL THEN RATHER DRY LOW/MID LEVELS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CIRRUS THIS MORNING...THEN WITH STRONG DYNAMICS OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH EXPECT A RAPID SATURATION AND PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT SWEEPING ACROSS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME ELEVATED CAPE OF 80 J/KG BUT THIS IS ABOVE 650 MB THIS EVENING. SPC GENERAL THUNDER IS JUST TO THE SOUTH...SO FOR NOW WILL LEAVE ANY THUNDER POSSIBILITIES OUT. MID LEVEL DRY WEDGE OF AIR ROTATES AROUND UPPER LOW INTO SRN WI DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CRAS IR FORECAST SHOWS THIS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AFTER 09Z. AS THE MID LEVEL DRYING ABOVE 800MB OCCURS...EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT COOLS MID/UPPER LAYERS BUT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION LIQUID. .TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM COLD FRONT WILL MARCH WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY MORNING. BULK OF MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...SO MUCH OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. STILL...SHOULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS SWING UPPER WAVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY...SO LINGERED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NW WI. SECONDARY UPPER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SO LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING...WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND SECONDARY UPPER WAVE WILL LIKELY CONFINE HIGHS TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...BUT BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL COMBAT ANY COMFORT FROM THE SUNSHINE...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS. .THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MODELS SHOWING SLIGHTLY MODERATING 925 MB TEMPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT SFC TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW FREEZING. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL AT LEAST MAKE THINGS MORE TOLERABLE THAN ON WEDNESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW MODELS ADVERTISING A SYSTEM FOR LATER FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. STILL NOT MUCH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AMONG MODELS...BUT ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE LOW TRACK...THOUGH STILL BOUNCING AROUND A BIT. LATEST ECMWF RUN RETURNED TO IDEAL TRACK OVER ILLINOIS...WITH ALL SNOW FOR SRN WI..WHILE THE GFS HAS A WEAKENING WAVE SLIDING BY TO THE NORTH. THOUGH DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR...THIS SYSTEM STILL BEARS WATCHING AS THE ECMWF KEEPS HINTING AT OUR FIRST SNOW EVENT. CURRENTLY NOT SEEING MUCH FOR SUNDAY...SO WENT WITH DRY FORECAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL RUN A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. && .AVIATION... EXPECT MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING AS ATMOSPHERE IS INITIALLY FAIRLY DRY. MAIN CONCERN IS WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. 2 THSD FT WINDS AROUND 50 KNOTS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND 40 KNOTS OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS ARE WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE NEAR THE SURFACE THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATE THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES AS LOW OVER THE PLAINS MOVES TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT AND INTENSIFIES. MOISTURE AND UPWARD MOTION INCREASE AND EXPECT RAPID SATURATION AND A QUICK PROGRESSION TO MVFR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THEN IFR/LIFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING IN RAIN/FOG/STRATUS. && .MARINE... TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW EXITING THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND INTENSIFY TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING WINDS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS MAY APPROACH GALE CONDITIONS...HOWEVER WITH WARMER SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AS JUST ENOUGH STABILITY TO PREVENT MIXING OF GALE WINDS TO THE SURFACE...ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT DURING THE EARLY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE LOW/TROUGH. HOWEVER THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TIME FOR WAVES TO SUBSIDE BEFORE POST FRONTAL GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS IN AGAIN WITH INCREASING WINDS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV/07 TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ/06  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KEKA 240703 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 1113 PM PST TUE NOV 23 2010 .SYNOPSIS...BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS COLD CANADIAN AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO FRI BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. && .UPDATE...TEMPERATURES FALLING RAPIDLY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN ZONE 001. && .PREV DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE HOW COLD TEMPS WILL FALL AS A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. IR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND HI CLOUDS ADVECTING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND SIMPLE INTERPOLATION ADVECTS THESE CLOUDS OVER NW CA BY AROUND 08Z. MODELS AND CRAS IMAGERY SUPPORT THIS WITH INCREASING 1000-500MB RH AND SKY COVER ALONG THE COAST BY 06Z. THE KEY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND THE COOLING AHEAD OF IT/S ARRIVAL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING SKY COVER...ELECTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT HEADLINES THIS AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAINLY OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY WED MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO FRI AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE PAC NW. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF THE GULF OF AK FRI WITH PRECIP CHCS INCREASING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN AS MAJORITY OF PRECIP ENDS WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4500 FT FRI DROPPING TO 2000 FT SAT. TROUGH SHIFTS E AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUN INTO MON BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE W COAST NEXT TUE. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH 02Z. VALLEY FOG MAY INHIBIT VSBYS...WITH A HINT OF MVFR FOG AT KUKI AFT 09Z. FROST WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT...EVEN AT COASTAL SITES. JCA && .MARINE...NW SWELL OF 10-12 FT AT 11 SEC WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY OVERNIGHT. SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE SWELL FALLS BELOW 8 FT BY WED AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THU BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS WILL RAMP UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT MORNING. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS...BUT TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR. ANOTHER LARGE SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. JCA && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PST WED FOR CAZ001-002. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY PZZ455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY PZZ450-470-475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KEKA 232213 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA 213 PM PST TUE NOV 23 2010 .SYNOPSIS...BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS COLD CANADIAN AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO FRI BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. && .DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FCST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE HOW COLD TEMPS WILL FALL AS A COLD CANADIAN AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. IR IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF MID AND HI CLOUDS ADVECTING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND SIMPLE INTERPOLATION ADVECTS THESE CLOUDS OVER NW CA BY AROUND 08Z. MODELS AND CRAS IMAGERY SUPPORT THIS WITH INCREASING 1000-500MB RH AND SKY COVER ALONG THE COAST BY 06Z. THE KEY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND THE COOLING AHEAD OF IT/S ARRIVAL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING SKY COVER...ELECTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT HEADLINES THIS AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAINLY OVER DEL NORTE COUNTY WED MORNING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO FRI AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE PAC NW. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF THE GULF OF AK FRI WITH PRECIP CHCS INCREASING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN...COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN AS MAJORITY OF PRECIP ENDS WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4500 FT FRI DROPPING TO 2000 FT SAT. TROUGH SHIFTS E AND A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SUN INTO MON BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE W COAST NEXT TUE. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS THROUGH 02Z. VALLEY FOG MAY INHIBIT VSBYS...WITH A HINT OF MVFR FOG AT KUKI AFT 09Z. FROST WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT...EVEN AT COASTAL SITES. JCA && .MARINE...NW SWELL OF 10-12 FT AT 11 SEC WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY OVERNIGHT. SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE SWELL FALLS BELOW 8 FT BY WED AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THU BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES. SOUTH WINDS WILL RAMP UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT MORNING. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS...BUT TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR. ANOTHER LARGE SWELL WILL BUILD INTO THE WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. JCA && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PST WED FOR CAZ001-002. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY PZZ455. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST WEDNESDAY PZZ450-470-475. && $$ VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 151748 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1148 AM CST MON NOV 15 2010 SHORT TERM... TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE ACROSS PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS SHEAR ZONE GETS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS MAIN MID/UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL DROP INTO IOWA OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY A CLOUD ISSUE WITH MID LEVELS MOISTENING SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THE SHORTWAVE THEN MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND MOST QPF WOULD STAY WELL TO THE SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION. MOST MODELS PAINT A HUNDREDTH OR SO OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT CRAS MODEL IS DRY. BOTH NAM AND GFS MOS POPS ARE LOW...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES AT MOST OVER THE FAR WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER MILD...IN THE LOWER 50S...WITH THE 925MB TEMPS AROUND 6C AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NOCTURNAL INVERSION MIXING OUT. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MAIN SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE EXITS THE KENTUCKY REGION AND MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. MEANWHILE SECOND SHORTWAVE EXITS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY...REACHING KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. A SECOND LOW MOVES ACROSS MISSOURI WEDNESDAY WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE . 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BRING A HUNDREDTH OR SO ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING ALMOST 0.20 INCHES TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE OF A SURFACE TROUGH. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA/OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MAINLY UPPER MOISTURE WITH LIMITED UPWARD MOTION. THICKNESS VALUES WOULD BE SNOW...BUT STILL A RATHER WARM MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. TOP DOWN METHOD WOULD INDICATE MORE LIQUID IF ONLY THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMES INTO PLAY. CRAS MODEL IS DRY WITH NAM ONLY SHOWING LIGHT QPF MAINLY NORTH OF MILWAUKEE POSSIBLY MAINLY DUE TO LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTHEAST WINDS. EVEN SO POPS WOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE. LONG TERM... THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM THE MAIN SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND ZONAL FLOW OCCURRS THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING WSW ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE U.S./CANADAIN BORDER AREA THURSDAY. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS HAVE THE QPF WELL TO OUR NORTH. A TRAILING DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY,..WHILE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS WARM AIR ADVECTION BACK WITH A STRONGER SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 06Z DGEX IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO. 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z DGEX SEEM BETTER SINCE 12Z GFS APPEARS TO BRING THE COLD AIR TOO FAR SOUTH WITH A WSW UPPER FLOW. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETS UP WITH A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MAIN PROBLEM IS MODELS DIVERGE ON TIMING OF WEAK SHORTWAVES PUSHING NORTHEAST IN THE UPPER JET. DESPITE DIFFERENCES AND TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY THICKNESS VALUES ARE SIMILAR WITH THE MAIN BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THICKNESS INDICATES RAIN...SO LOW TO MEDIUM POPS SEEM REASONABLE AND MAINLY LIQUID PRECIPITATION. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ AVIATION/MARINE...08/WWOD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 281714 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1214 PM CDT THU OCT 28 2010 .SHORT TERM... LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD HOLDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS 250 MB UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS SOMEWHAT RESULTING IN WEAK UPPER DIVERGENCE AND WEAK UPWARD 700 MB OMEGA. AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITS AND 500 MB VORTICITY MAX EXITS...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR THIS EVENING SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE...SO WINDS WILL DECOUPLE. GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEST OF MADISON LATE TONIGHT...BUT STILL SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL RH AND 20 KNOT NORTHWEST WINDS AT MILWAUKEE AT AROUND 500 FEET. WITH DEW POINTS FALLING OFF TO THE UPPER TEENS WEST TO LOWER TO MID 20S EAST...EXPECT MID 20 LOWS OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH LOWS JUST BELOW FREEZING AT MILWAUKEE. FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS UPPER JET MAX APPROACHES WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS FRIDAY WHILE MAIN 700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT. 40 KNOT SOUTHWEST 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER RH IS VERY DRY TO BEGIN WITH...AND RH AT 700 AND 850 REMAIN BELOW 50 PCT. AS A RESULT ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS AT BEST. SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE 00Z ECMWF WEAKER WITH THIS TROUGH. UKMET ALSO TRENDING TOWARD THE WEAKER 00Z ECMWF. AS THIS TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST...A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MAIN PROBLEM IS STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH THE GFS AND NAM COLDER WHILE THE ECMWF WITH THE WEAKER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS NOT AS COLD. UKMET IS SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS AND WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST BASED ON THE LOW RH. SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING PRECIP TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET MOVING EAST ACROSS ILLINOIS. 00Z ECMWF IS QUICKER AND STRONGER THAN 12Z GFS...BUT 12Z UKMET IS SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF. CRAS MODEL IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF BUT JUST A BIT WEAKER. THEREFORE WILL GO WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN...WITH SMALL POPS IN THE SOUTH SUNDAY. .LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE DEEPENING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. 12Z GFS CONTINUES THE TREND ON DEVELOPING AN UPPER LOW NEAR ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY....WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN U.S. WITH A SMALLER UPPER LOW FARTHER SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. 06Z DGEX IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO. MAIN FORECAST DIFFERENCE WILL BE COLDER TEMPERATURES OFF THE ECMWF AND SOME PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY DUE TO A STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THE RETURNING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND HIGHER MOISTURE. WILL USE A CONSENSUS AND TREND TOWARD DRY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM 06Z DGEX IS CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF...WITH THE GFS KEEPING AN UPPER LOW NEAR LOUISIANA. EITHER WAY OUR AREA REMAINS DRY...BUT GFS IS WARMER DUE TO A WEAK WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. 06Z DEX IS ACTUALLY WARMER THAN THE ECMWF...DESPITE A MORE SIMILAR TROUGH OVER THE EAST. AGAIN CONSENSUS APPEARS THE BEST WAY TO GO. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ AVIATION/MARINE...08/WOOD  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMPX 040832 AFDMPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 332 AM CDT MON OCT 4 2010 .DISCUSSION... LARGE GREAT LAKES HIGH REMAINS MAIN WEATHER FEATURE AFFECTING THE REGION TODAY INTO TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME WARMING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...PERHAPS NOT AS WARM AS MAV GUIDANCE NUMBERS INDICATE. COOL START WILL YIELD DRY AIR AND QUICK RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST. COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME DOWNSLOPE AFFECT TO AREAS ON THE LEE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THIS CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...BUT GRADIENT DOES INCREASE SOME AS NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE DAKOTAS. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF AGAIN TO THE EAST AS WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE FROM THE COOL/DRY BNDRY LAYER AGAIN. THE WEST CWA MAY NOT SO MUCH...WITH WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED. MODEL TRENDS ARE INDICATING FRONT TO MOVE IN A BIT FASTER...COMING INTO THE NW LATE TUE NIGHT AND EXITING THE CWA BY WED AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS LACKING...BUT DOES APPEAR TO BE A STRONG WAVE ASSOCIATED. 00Z CRAS FCST WV IMAGERY SHOWING STRONG DRYING BEHIND WAVE AND THIS WAS THE IMPETUS FOR COLLAB CHANGES MADE TO DEWPTS FOR WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE THEM DROP OFF INTO THE UPPER 30S AT LEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...BEHIND THE FRONT. ONLY BRIEF COOLING ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH HEIGHTS RISING AGAIN AHEAD OF SOUTHWEST CONUS CUTOFF LOW. TIMING OF THIS IN QUESTION IS THE LONG RANGE. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE INDICATING THAT IT COULD AFFECT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ THE CONTINUED BENIGN WEATHER FOR THE AVIATION COMMUNITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HRS. ONLY A FEW MINOR PROBLEMS WITH FG/BR FOR EAU IN THE MORNING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE RIVER AND LAKE NEAR THE AIRPORT. WNDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE S/SE OVERNIGHT AND THRU TOMORROW WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO 22 KTS AT RWF/AXN DURING LATE MORNING/AFTN. MSP...SE WNDS ARND 7 KTS OVERNIGHT WILL VEER TO THE S/SW MONDAY MORNING AND INCREASE TO ARND 11-13 KTS. A FEW GUSTS OF 16 TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. ..JLT.. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ DWE/JPR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KOHX 290501 AAA AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1201 AM CDT WED SEP 29 2010 .UPDATE... UPDATED TO INCLUDE AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION... UPPER LOW MOVING SLOWLY S ACROSS MID STATE AT THIS TIME...BUT ONLY GENERATING A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO AREA AS LOW CONTINUES DRIFTING SLOWLY S INTO AL LATE TONIGHT AND WED. SOME FOG POSSIBLE AT CSV LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED. CRAS MODEL FORECAST INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHWARD MOVING TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER SE FL LATE WED AND WED NIGHT MAY MOVE NW INTO E TN WED NIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING CSV AREA. BNA...VFR THROUGHOUT PERIOD. CSV...MVFR FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM CDT TUE SEP 28 2010/ UPDATE... LIGHTER B/L WINDS TNGT W/PATCHY FOG. BEST COVERAGE OF FOG SHOULD BE IN THE PLAT/NEAR BODIES OF WATER. LOW TEMPS IN THE MID/UPR 40S. NO FROST YET BUT IT WON'T BE LONG. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT TUE SEP 28 2010/ DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS STILL LINGER AS THE UPPER TROUGH HAS YET TO PASS THROUGH THE MID STATE. STILL, TEMPERATURES ARE NOTICEABLY COOLER TODAY FOLLOWING A CHILLY MORNING. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE CLEARS OUT, LOOK FOR A NORTHWEST FLOW TO SET UP ALOFT AS A SURFACE RIDGE SITS TO OUR WEST, KEEPING US UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND HOLDING OUR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO SWING THROUGH THE MID STATE ON SUNDAY, BRINGING SOME CLOUDS, BUT NO PRECIPITATION. THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE MID STATE, AS THE SURFACE RIDGE ISN'T EXPECTED TO FINALLY SWING THROUGH UNTIL TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ STEIGERWALDT  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KRIW 232011 AFDRIW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 211 PM MDT THU SEP 23 2010 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SYSTEM LAST NIGHT BROUGHT MEASURABLE PCPN TO MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOME SITES REPORTING AS MUCH AS .25 TO .40. THE AREA AROUND KAYCEE AND ELKHORN RAWS REPORTED THE MOST WITH AROUND .40 INCHES. LOW CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED MUCH OF THE DAY IN JOHNSON...WEST OF THP AND IN THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE BIG HORN BASIN. ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE MTN RANGES TO ALLOW MODERATE CU AND PC SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WIND SPEEDS IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS. WEAK MTN WAVE SIGNATURE SHOWING UP ALONG THE EAST SLOPE OF THE ABSAROKA MTNS BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z FRIDAY. LCL WRF IS GENERATING SOME 30-35KT SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AND 15-20 KTS BETWEEN CODY AND CLARK. INCREASED THE WINDS ACROSS THIS AREA TO ADJUST FOR THIS. RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND JET NOSES INTO WRN MT WHICH IS USUALLY A GOOD SET-UP FOR A SOME MTN WAVE ACTION. CRAS IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING SOME LEE ENHANCEMENT IN OUR FAVORED AREA UP THERE SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER UP THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD UNLESS WE CAN SQUEEZE OUT A LATE DAY SHOWER FROM THE BEARTOOTH OVER TO THE NRN BIG HORNS. RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND FOR WARMING TEMPS AND LOWERING AFTERNOON RH'S. WINDS SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT MIN RH'S WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND EAST SLOPE OF THE MTN RANGES. DRY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LEAD TO SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE DIURNAL SWINGS OF AT LEAST 40 TO 50 DEGREES. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DROPS DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS WEAKER THAN EARLIER RUNS INDICATED SO CHANCE OF LOW CLOUDS HAS DIMINISHED. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EACH DAY WITH MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S BY SUNDAY WITH UPPER 50S AND 60S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE FINAL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. MEDIUM-RANGE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BETWEEN 140-150W. SHORTWAVES TIMED TO TOP RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK SHALLOW BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT RESPECTIVELY. THESE COLD FRONTS WILL ONLY RESULT IN A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY OTHERWISE A VERY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE WITH TEMPERATURES 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL...CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS BUT LIKELY TO STAY A FEW DEGREES BELOW AS WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT...AIRMASS NOT COMPLETELY MIXING OUT DURING THE SHORTER DAYS. CLEAR SKIES...A DRY AIRMASS AND LONGER NIGHTS WILL ALSO RESULT IN LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES NEAR 40F. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS HOLD ON TO THIS STRONG RIDGE THROUGH THE FIRST WEEKEND IN OCTOBER WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING MORE AMPLITUDE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICA OR A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN THAT WILL CONTINUE SEVERAL DAYS BEYOND. AVIATION... WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING COOLER...DRY AND STABLE AIR TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF LOCATIONS. WITH CLEARING AND RADIATIONAL COOLING...SOME STRATUS AND MIST IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER LOW LYING AREAS WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURRED YESTERDAY THROUGH THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE LOCALIZED WITH LOCAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CEILINGS AND MIST IN THE VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST WITH LOCAL TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS. BY MID MORNING CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR WITH BREEZY AREAS OF WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE SOUTH FROM KRKS TO KCPR. FIRE WEATHER... A DRY FORECAST WILL DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MOST LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A PASSING DISTURBANCE THAT BRUSHES THE FAR NORTH WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A HIGH MOUNTAIN SHOWER LATE FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE DRY WITH A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WITH MIN RH'S DROPPING BACK INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MANY LOWER ELEVATION AREAS FRIDAY...DRYING FURTHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BIG DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE DRY AIRMASS ALLOWS FOR 40 TO 50 DEGREE DIURNAL SWINGS. THERE WILL BE SOME WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z FRIDAY AND SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WIND CORRIDOR FROM RKS TO CPR AGAIN FRIDAY. THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SKRBAC LONG TERM...AEM AVIATION...C.BAKER FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KRIW 222030 AFDRIW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 230 PM MDT WED SEP 22 2010 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SAGGED SOUTH OVERNIGHT HAD A STRONGER PUNCH THAN EXPECTED WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS ALL OF THE BIG HORN BASIN OVER TO JOHNSON COUNTY. IN FACT...CODY WAS STILL STRUGGLING TO HIT 50...48 DEGREES...AT 215 PM THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A BUSY EVENING AS APPROACHING TROUGH AND DYNAMICS PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BIG PORTION OF THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FIRING THE PAST FEW HOURS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF UTAH WITH MOST OF THEM WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO SWRN WYO DUE TO LESS INSTABILITY. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME IS AIMED JUST EAST OF THE AREA BUT SHORTWAVE IS SEEN RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ON TOP OF THIS PLUME OVER WRN CO AND ERN UT. WITH INCREASING JET SUPPORT AND QG FORCING...THIS MAY WELL TURN INTO A BAROCLINIC LEAF AS INDICATED BY THE CRAS IMAGERY. STLT IMAGERY SHOWS SOME TRAPPED MTN WAVES OVER THE RED DESERT INDICATIVE OF INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AS OUR JET STREAK LIFTS NE OVHD. BAROCLINIC LEAF WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH ANOTHER AREA OF CONCENTRATED SHOWERS AROUND THE WIND RIVER BASIN UP INTO THE SRN BIG HORN BASIN AND OVER TO THE SERN ABASAROKAS WHERE COMBINATION OF QG FORCING...FRONTAL FORCING AND MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ALL ADD UP TO HIGH POPS. INCREASED POPS OVER THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AND ALL OF THE CENTRAL AND SERN ZONES THIS EVENING. GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING THE H7 LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SERN AND CNTRAL FREMONT THIS EVENING. ODDS OF PCPN WILL INCREASE FURTHER NE AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FORCING LIFTS NE LATER TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE FAR N AND ERN ZONES THURSDAY MORNING... ESPECIALLY THE NERN ZONES. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE CLIPS THE FAR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING BUT MAINLY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND NO MORE THAN AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER IN THE FAR NRN MTNS. COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY WITH ENOUGH PUNCH TO PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN BYG AND CPR SATURDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE A WARMUP AS HEIGHTS BUILD FOR THE WEEKEND AND H7 TEMPS RISE ABOVE 10C IN THE WRN HALF. LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE FINAL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. MEDIUM-RANGE GLOBAL MODELS IN OVERALL BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING IN DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. LATEST ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON PROGRESSION OF THIS RIDGE NEXT WEEK...MOVING TOWARD GFS SOLUTION THOUGH THE GFS OPS AND GEFS MEAN STILL REMAIN FURTHER WEST. ALL MODELS DEPICT SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER TOP OF RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY DRIVING A WEAK...SHALLOW COLD FRONT SOUTH EAST OF THE DIVIDE SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. THE OVERALL PICTURE WILL BE TEMPERATURES 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND NOT QUITE IN RECORD HIGH TERRITORY. ALSO...CLEAR (AND LONGER) NIGHTS AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES NEAR 40F. AVIATION... MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH TOPOGRAPHY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING...AND WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA...BECOMING WIDESPREAD IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MORE SCATTERED OVER THE BASINS AND VALLEYS THIS EVENING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL OCCUR. MOST VALLEYS AND BASINS WILL DEVELOP MVFR CEILINGS WITH LOWER VISIBILITY IN PRECIPITATION. THROUGH THE NIGHT AFTER THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...LOCAL IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH MIST WILL BE ENCOUNTERED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ALL OF THE TAF SIGHTS WILL BE IMPACTED WITH LOWER CLOUDS... PRECIPITATION AND AT LEAST MIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST WITH DECREASING MOISTURE AND INCREASING STABILITY. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE EAST WITH SOME OBSCURATIONS CONTINUING. THE TAF LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING 16Z TO 18Z. FIRE WEATHER... A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE DISTRICT. THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND EASTERN PART OF THE DISTRICT. THE AIRMASS WILL DRY OUT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY A PASSING DISTURBANCE BRUSHING FAR NORTHERN WYOMING LATE FRIDAY. THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO THE FAR NORTH ALONG WITH A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SLIDE SOUTH WITH THIS DISTURBANCE POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME LOW CLOUDS SATURDAY MORNING BETWEEN BUFFALO AND CASPER. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SKRBAC LONG TERM...AEM AVIATION...C.BAKER FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS65 KRIW 122127 AFDRIW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 327 PM MDT SUN SEP 12 2010 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS FLAT RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVHD. SUBTROPICAL CIRRUS BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE RED DESERT AS THE CRAS IMAGERY WAS INDICATING YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE...JUST A FEW CU OVER THE HIGHER MTNS. WEAK DISTURBANCE...AREA OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE ENE TOWARDS NW WYOMING ON MONDAY WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STORM OVER THE FAR NW LATE MONDAY. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE MILD TO WARM AND QUITE DRY BUT WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WINDS. TROUGH APPROACHING NRN CA IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER MOVING THE TROUGH AXIS THROUGH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE NAM BEING AT LEAST 6 HOURS SLOWER. FORECAST IS FOLLOWING THE SLOWER SOLUTION FOR NOW. IT LOOKS LIKE COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI'S AND INCREASE PW'S FROM .60 TO .80 WILL BRING AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MTN STORMS. 18Z NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER YET WITH PCPN BACK INTO THE WIND RIVER BASIN INTO EARLY WED AFTN. SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE 300-500 J/KG RANGE WITH WEDNESDAY BEGINNING TO STABILIZE BUT PW'S HOLD IN THE .60 TO .80 RANGE. TEMPS SHOULD COOL AT LEAST 8 TO 12 DEGREES EAST OF THE DIVIDE FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE THAT A REX BLOCK WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC/ALASKA WEDNESDAY AND COULD LAST MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE GFS FASTER IN BREAKING IT DOWN. AT THE SAME TIME MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG CLOSED LOW AFFECTING CENTRAL CANADA/SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED CLOSED LOW...DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE ECMWF SENDS A DECENT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS A MUCH WEAKER COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF SENDS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS ITS PLACEMENT OF THE HUDSON CLOSED LOW IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN THE GFS. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO THE REX BLOCK IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW AND THEIR INTERACTION WITH SURFACE COLD FRONTS COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME PRECIPITATION FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHERE A BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE WILL BE LOCATED. DURING THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE HINTING AT DEEP WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKENING REX BLOCK...WITH A FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE POSSIBLY BEING PUSHED INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW. HAVE GONE COOLER THAN MEX MOS GUIDANCE...WITH A TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONTS IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS OCCUR IN NORTHWEST WYOMING MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 18 MPH WILL BLOW FROM EASTERN SWEETWATER COUNTY TO KCPR MONDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER... IT WILL CONTINUE VERY DRY EAST OF THE DIVIDE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. MINIMUM RH'S WILL CONTINUE IN THE TEENS TO AS LOW AS AROUND 10 PERCENT. ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER ALL OF THE WEST...GRADUALLY SPREADING EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SKRBAC LONG TERM...WM AVIATION...LIPSON FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 111708 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1208 PM CDT SAT SEP 11 2010 .SHORT TERM... LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE FAR EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH HAS ALREADY SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME DRIZZLE...MAINLY EAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW INVERSION AROUND 6 THSD FT. RUC SOUNDINGS AT MILWAUKEE SHOW INVERSION LOWERING TO AROUND 35 HUNDRED FT BY EVENING. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO BE SLOW TO CLEAR EAST...BUT DIMINISHING CLOUDS SHOULD OCCUR OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY THE EARLY EVENING. LATER TONIGHT LIMITING FACTOR FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SURFACE GRADIENT PREVENTING WINDS FROM DECOUPLING TOO MUCH. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY AREA. THIS SHOULD BRING DRY PLEASANT WEATHER SUNDAY. A MORE ZONAL/WNW JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. SETS IN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN. 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE POKES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MODERATE AMOUNT OF UPWARD MOTION AT 700 MB. NAM ALSO SHOWS A WSW LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 KNOTS MOVING ACROSS THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER AREA. NAM ALSO SHOWS ALMOST 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. ONLY NEGATIVE IS LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ENOUGH MOISTURE ABOVE LOW LEVEL INVERSION SO WILL RAISE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT HAS HIGH AS NAM MOS. THIS IS BECAUSE BOTH 12Z GFS AND 12Z CRAS ARE DRY...WITH 00Z ECMWF KEEPING PRECIP JUST TO OUR EAST. THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY...SO WILL GO DRY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ZONAL UPPER JET CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. AND SOUTHERN CANADA. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS. GFS AND 00Z ECMWF IS STARTING TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THIS. ECMWF HAS A STRONGER TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO IOWA...WITH GFS WEAKER AND A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS. SINCE ECMWF HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE GFS IN THIS TIME FRAME...A PREFERENCE IS GIVEN TO THE GFS. .LONG TERM... THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BOTH MODELS BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE WISCONSIN AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS HAS A MORE BROAD TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING TWO MORE DISTINCT SHORTWAVES. BOTH MODELS BRING A WEAK SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS A TROUGH INTO WISCONSIN FRIDAY...WHILE GFS IS SLOWER AND WEAKER. AGAIN AM LEANING MORE TOWARD THE GFS...AS THE ECMWF 500 MB SHORTWAVE/TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA APPEARS TOO NOISY. SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BOTH 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF HAVE A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. SURFACE HIGH THEN BUILDS ACROSS WISCONSIN. && .AVIATION... TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST WI. IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MIDDAY AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN. HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP MVFR CIGS HANGING AROUND AT MKE AND ENW UNTIL 00Z THIS EVENING UNTIL THE TROUGH FINALLY PASSES. IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI...INCLUDING MSN...CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD ERODES AWAY ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NW AFTER 21Z AND MAY GUST TO 20KT FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE 00Z. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AT THE SFC OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS OF 22KT AROUND 1000FT WILL KEEP JUST ENOUGH MIXING IN THE LOW LEVELS TO INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUN...BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS. && .MARINE...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WINDS AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSES LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1PM. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SW WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MI SUN NGT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ AVIATION/MARINE...13/MRC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KOHX 082357 AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 657 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010 .UPDATE...FOR 09/00Z AVIATION FORECAST && .AVIATION... HAND ANALYZED SURFACE COOL FRONT RIGHT ON OUR DOORSTEPS HERE AT OHX AT 08/23Z. BASE VELOCITY SHOWING VERY LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST PER 64 DEWPOINT AT BNA AT 23Z WHILE BWG HAD A 53 AND PAH A 56. KY MESONET SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S WEST OF I65. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO MID STATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DO SO ON THURSDAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING EAST FROM REMNANTS OF HERMINE IN CENTRAL PLAINS IS WORKING INTO DRIER AIRMASS. EXPECT MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO HANG AROUND OVERNIGHT BECOMING SCATTERED BY MID MORNING THURSDAY AT BOTH SITES AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO DRY OUT FROM THE NORTH. MUCH COOLER TEMPS ON THURSDAY. CRAS BRINGS THE BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI INTO FAR SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN BY 09/12Z BEFORE DISSIPATING IT. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BNA AND CSV BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO FOG AT CSV LATE TONIGHT. BOYD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED SEP 8 2010/ SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTHEAST. AT 300 PM, THE COLD FRONT/DEW POINT FRONT HAD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY INVOF OF NASHVILLE, AND REACHED FROM NEAR CAMDEN, TO NEAR BRENTWOOD AND JAMESTOWN. EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE ONLY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH 06Z, THEN PIVOT INTO A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION, FROM NEAR DOVER TO NEAR CHA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT, WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR BETWEEN A TRACE AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. EXPECT HIGHEST DEW POINTS, AROUND 60, TO BE CONFINED TO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, WHERE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ELSEWHERE, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE MID STATE RANGING FROM THE MID 70S PLATEAU, TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S ELSEWHERE. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE PUSH INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES, AS SURFACE FLOW STARTS TO TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS OUR AREA AND OLD STATIONARY FRONT OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. BY FRIDAY, EXPECT AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN TWO- THIRDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. FRIDAY NIGHT, DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN AREAS, ALONG WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT SWINGS IN FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID STATE. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT WILL PRODUCE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, WITH LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST AND MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE. LONG TERM...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN AREAS EARLY SUNDAY, BUT AFTER THAT EXPECT ANOTHER DRY AND COOLISH AIR MASS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. EXPECT A DRY COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD TO USHER IN EVEN COOLER AIR, WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY MOST AREAS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 01  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KOHX 310420 AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 1120 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010 .UPDATE...FOR 31/06Z AVIATION FORECAST && .AVIATION... MOISTURE THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS STILL STREAMING NORTH FROM GULF REGION WITH NEAREST PRECIP IN NORTH ALABAMA. AREA OF SHOWERS IN NORTH ALABAMA SEEMS TO BE ERODING ON NORTH SIDE AS IT TRIES TO WORK TOWARD SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. CRAS KEEPS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOIST TONGUE ACROSS MIDDLE TN THROUGH TUESDAY. BASICALLY LOOKING AT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH SITES BUT EXPECT MVFR AT CSV OVERNIGHT INTO SUNRISE DUE TO FOG AND HZ. BOYD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010/ UPDATE...FOR 31/00Z AVIATION FORECAST AVIATION... TONGUE OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH ALONG INTERSTATE 65 THROUGH ALABAMA AND INTO MIDDLE TN. THIS IN AN AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOWING UP ON DOPPLER ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG I65 HAS BEEN DIMINISHING LAST FEW VCPS WITH A WESTWARD COMPONENT BECOMING MORE EVIDENT IN MID STATE. CRAS CONTINUES TO WORK MOISTURE NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING IT WITH TIME. EXPECT MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO TIME. EXPECT TO SEE MVFR AGAIN AT CSV LATE NIGHT/SUNRISE TUESDAY DUE TO FOG. BOYD PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010/ DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR CHANNEL REVEALS THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM STL TO MOB. PROGS INDICATE THAT THIS TROUGH WILL GO AWAY AND ANY SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL GO WITH IT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM THE EAST AS THE SFC RIDGE EXERTS IT INFLUENCE. SFC RIDGE MOVES EWD OVER THE MIDSTATE AS "EARL" BRUSHES THE EAST COAST ON THU. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THU EVE. ANY CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH "EARL" SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST. ON WED A STRONG H5 TROUGH WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND THEN ROLL THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THU NGT AND FRI. THIS BRINGS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SEWD FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MIDSTATE ON FRI. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF CONVECTION AND A GOOD BIT OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH IN THE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA ON SAT. THE SFC RIDGE PUSHES THE FRONT TO THE GULF COAST BY SUN WITH A DRY AND COOL SFC RIDGE SITTING OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS WEEKEND. SLY FLOW RETURNS ON MON AFTN BUT ANY CHANCE OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL MID WEEK. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 01  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KOHX 302349 AFDOHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 649 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010 .UPDATE...FOR 31/00Z AVIATION FORECAST && .AVIATION... TONGUE OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH ALONG INTERSTATE 65 THROUGH ALABAMA AND INTO MIDDLE TN. THIS IN AN AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN SHOWING UP ON DOPPLER ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG I65 HAS BEEN DIMINISHING LAST FEW VCPS WITH A WESTWARD COMPONENT BECOMING MORE EVIDENT IN MID STATE. CRAS CONTINUES TO WORK MOISTURE NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY BUT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING IT WITH TIME. EXPECT MOSTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SPRINKLES FROM TIME TO TIME. EXPECT TO SEE MVFR AGAIN AT CSV LATE NIGHT/SUNRISE TUESDAY DUE TO FOG. BOYD && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2010/ DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR CHANNEL REVEALS THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM STL TO MOB. PROGS INDICATE THAT THIS TROUGH WILL GO AWAY AND ANY SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION WILL GO WITH IT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALSO SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM THE EAST AS THE SFC RIDGE EXERTS IT INFLUENCE. SFC RIDGE MOVES EWD OVER THE MIDSTATE AS "EARL" BRUSHES THE EAST COAST ON THU. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THU EVE. ANY CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH "EARL" SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST. ON WED A STRONG H5 TROUGH WILL DROP SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND THEN ROLL THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THU NGT AND FRI. THIS BRINGS A FRONTAL SYSTEM SEWD FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MIDSTATE ON FRI. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF CONVECTION AND A GOOD BIT OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH IN THE LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA ON SAT. THE SFC RIDGE PUSHES THE FRONT TO THE GULF COAST BY SUN WITH A DRY AND COOL SFC RIDGE SITTING OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS THIS WEEKEND. SLY FLOW RETURNS ON MON AFTN BUT ANY CHANCE OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL MID WEEK. && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 01  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 241650 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1150 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2010 .SHORT TERM... LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO ONTARIO JET MAX LIFTS NORTHEAST. UPPER DIVERGENCE ALSO IS MAINLY ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA AND NORTH TOWARDS JAMES BAY CANADA. 500 MB PVA MAX DOES MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BUT IT IS WEAKENING AS THIS OCCURS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPWARD MOTION AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW VERY DRY MID LEVELS. MODERATE CAP AROUND 6 THSD FT ON RUC SOUNDINGS THEREFORE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. FRONT MAY WELL MOVE THROUGH DRY. 12Z NAM AND CRAS DOES GENERATE SOME SPOTTY 0.01 TO 0.03 IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GFS IS LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE WITH A SOLID BAND OF 0.01 TO 0.03. LATEST 4 KM WRF ALSO GENERATES A WEAK SCATTERED TO BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT QPF THIS AFTERNOON. TRANSVERSE BANDING OF CIRRUS FROM NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROF AXIS. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. DEWPOINTS DROPPING TO THE UPPER 40S ON THE NAM MOS...BUT THIS MAY BE TOO LOW WITH UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE MID 50S OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WITH A RATHER STRONG CAP AROUND 8 THSD FT. MAIN IMPACT BEING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT THE MID 70S...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SURFACE HIGH THEN MOVES OVERHEAD LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL LEAVE PATCHY FOG OUT...EXCEPT IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY DUE TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWS SIMILAR TRACK...CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE UPPER RIDGE. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS PATTERN...SO DECENT CONFIDENCE IN DRY FORECAST AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...WITH TYPICAL FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY AS DEW POINTS SLOWLY RISE. .LONG TERM... SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW...ALTHOUGH MODELS BACK THE SURFACE RIDGE WEST A LITTLE IN THE ECMWF. QPF DRY ON THE MODELS...BUT AS TIME GOES ON MOISTURE INCREASES BUT IT APPEARS MAIN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. NCEP PREFERS THE SLOWER 00Z ECMWF OVER THE PRIOR GFS RUNS. LATEST 12Z GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF. && .AVIATION... THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH SRN WI THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE...LIKELY PASSING THRU KMSN AROUND 18Z AND THRU THE ERN TAF SITES BTWN 21Z AND 01Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THRU ERN TAF SITES SHORTLY AFT PEAK HEATING...HOWEVER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING QUITE LIMITED. EXPECTING WDLY SCT -SHRA LATER THIS AFTN WITH ISOLD T AS SURFACE BASED CAPES DO INCREASE TO OVER 400 J/KG. WILL CONTINUE TO USE VCNTY REMARK FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO EXPECTED SPOTTY NATURE FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. MVFR CIGS WITH THE FRONT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS JUST BEHIND THE TROUGH MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALOFT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND DEWPT TEMPS WILL BE FALLING...SO VERY MINIMAL FOG THREAT LATE TONIGHT. SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GUSTY NW WINDS TO REACH THE SFC WED AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME GUSTS TO BE GREATER THAN 20KTS. && .MARINE...WINDS MAY BECOME ONSHORE FROM MKE AND SOUTH FOR A TIME WITH A LAKE BREEZE. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS BTWN 21Z/24 AND 02Z/25...BRINGING WEST TO NW WINDS AGAIN. THE NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SHALLOW LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN TO LAKE SFC TNGT. THE INVERSION WILL MIX OUT EARLY ON WED ALLOWING GUSTY WINDS TO REACH SFC. CONDITIONS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY CONDITIONS...BUT NOT CONFIDENT OF FREQUENT GUSTS GREATER THAN 22KT. WILL HOLD OFF ON SC.Y FOR NOW. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ AVIATION/MARINE...13/MRC  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 191746 CCA AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1244 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2010 .SHORT TERM... LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. IN ADDITION LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES NORTH INTO MINNESOTA...WEAKENING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO WISCONSIN. BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE TO THE NORTH. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SAG SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTH...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. AS A RESULT THERE IS MAINLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ...WITH WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AROUND 5 MICRO BARS PER SEC LATE THIS AFTERNOON FIGHTING A CAP AROUND 850 MB AS INDICATED IN THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AS 850 MB FLOW INCREASES. WEAK 850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION INCREASES TO OVER 10 MICRO BARS PER SECOND JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT. 2000 J/KG CAPE AVAILABLE...BUT AT MADISON STILL HAVE A RATHER STRONG CAP AROUND 850 MB...AND WITH LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE...ELEVATED CAPE IS RATHER MINIMAL IF LIFTED ABOVE THE CAP. ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ELEVATED CAPE OF NEAR 900 MB IS AVAILABLE WITH WEAKER CAP AND MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AS A RESULT BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS COMES LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA...AND WEAK SURFACE LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON THE NAM. A TRAILING COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR STARTS OUT AT AROUND 45 KNOTS FRIDAY THEN WEAKENS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER JET MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH NAM CAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG...WEAK CAP...HELICITY NEAR 200 AND BULK RICHARDSON NUMBER JUST OVER 50. HOWEVER BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR LATER THAN THIS WITH SHORTWAVE. NAM AND CRAS BOTH CENTER ON FRIDAY EVENING AS BEST POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISOCNSIN..,....AND MAINLY TOWARDS AND AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER A DYING MCS WILL COMPLICATE THINGS ON FRIDAY WITH CLOUD DEBRIS. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LOOKS REASONABLE. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY...UNTIL COLD FRONT EXITS THE FAR SOUTHEAST AROUND NOON...AGAIN DEPENDING ON ONGOING MCS POTENTIAL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT. .LONG TERM... SUNDAY AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. SHORTWAVE SLOWS AND STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. EVEN WITH PROXIMITY OF UPPER TROUGH...DRYING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP AREA DRY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WISCONSIN AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. QPF IS RATHER MEAGER...BUT THE RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE LENDS TO A MENTION OF SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WISCONSIN THURSDAY. THIS BRINGS COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA. && .AVIATION... EAST/WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTH INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI. ELONGATED BAND OF MVFR STRATUS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. CU FIELD EXPANDING ACROSS THE CWA. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL START TO PULL THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH AGAIN. WHILE CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN UPPER SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN WI. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...06/HENTZ AVIATION/MARINE...10/COLLAR