FXUS63 KMKX 250728 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 228 AM CDT WED AUG 25 2010 .SHORT TERM... TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TODAY. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR...NOT EXPECTING MUCH THAN A FEW AFTERNOON CU WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT. SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY TODAY WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF 15-16C HOLDING HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...WILL KEEP FOG LIMITED MAINLY TO RIVER VALLEYS AWAY FROM THE LAKE. LEANED TOWARD THE MET FOR LOW TEMPS...AS MAV NUMBERS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AMOUNT OF COOLING DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS. ANOTHER GREAT DAY IN STORE THURSDAY...AS SFC HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD...WHILE UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE EAST DUE TO EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE...AND A BIT WARMER IN THE WEST WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS. KEPT AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT..WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD SLIDE EAST ON FRIDAY...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. WITH INCREASED HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO SRLY FLOW ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE HIGH...SHOULD SEE A GOOD JUMP IN HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY...CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S. .LONG TERM... SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR EXTENDED...KEEPING UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. PERSISTENT SRLY FLOW AND HIGH HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO WARM...AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS TO CREEP BACK UP. WENT HIGHER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND...AS MODEL 925 MB TEMPS SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR 90 ON SUNDAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...AS WAVES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL RIDE UP OVER STUBBORN RIDGE. && .AVIATION... .AVIATION...SCT VFR CU EXPCD LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO SRN WI. MAY BE BRIEFLY BKN BUT TOO MUCH DRY AIR ALOFT TO ENTRAIN FOR CIGS TO LAST FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME. DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP LATER THIS MRNG AS WELL WHICH WILL ALLOW NW GUSTS TO REACH 20 KNOTS FOR A TIME. WIND SPEEDS WL SETTLE TO BLO 10KTS THIS EVE AS SHALLOW INVERSION DVLPS. && .MARINE...LATEST MODIS AND AVHRR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW NEARSHORE SST IN THE 66 TO 71 DEGREE RANGE...WITH MID 70S AT MID-LAKE. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WL ALLOW NW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTN. A FEW GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO 25KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN. WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH TNGT WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COOL AIR ADVECTION CLIPPING LOWER LAKE MI. GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS WITH LIGHTER WINDS AT THE SHORE. WIND SPEEDS SETTLE DOWN ON THU AS SFC HIGH PRES APPROACHES. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...DDV/07 AVIATION/MARINE...MBK/11  FXUS63 KMKX 110820 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 320 AM CDT SAT SEP 11 2010 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH TODAY THEN ASSESSING MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR WEDNESDAY. TODAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM STRONG UPPER JET MAX COMBINED WITH DEEPER INSTABILITY DRIVING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION DRIVING SHOWERS FROM NE IA INTO WI. 700-300 MILLIBAR QG FORCING/700 VERTICAL MOTION PEAKS THIS MORNING WITH A DRIER MID LEVEL COMING IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS AND ONGOING TRENDS HAVE HIGHEST POPS EARLY. LOW LEVELS SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. TONIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE/MID LEVEL RIDGING WORK ACROSS THE AREA. MORE EFFICIENT DRYING OF LOW LEVELS WITH ALL GUIDANCE AND EXPECTED CLOUD TRENDS SUPPORTING GOING WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES SHIFT EAST FAIRLY QUICK AND WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH DROPS INTO NORTHERN WI. STRONG NW UPPER JET ALSO FAVORS NORTHERN WI WITH DIVERGENCE FIELD CLOSER TO 500 MILLIBAR VORT TRACK. AS WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING MONDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED FROM MINNESOTA THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO ILLINOIS. SWIFT NW UPPER FLOW BUT NOT MUCH TO LATCH ONTO WITH RESPECT TO ANY APPRECIABLE WAVE. AIRMASS QUITE DRY AS WELL. TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WET WHILE THE GFS HAS HELD FIRM WITH THE DRY LOOK. HOWEVER ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED COMPLETELY DRY AFTER WAITING TO SEE THE 00Z RUN. CANADIAN MODEL ON BOARD FOR THE DRY LOOK. WILL REMOVE THE POPS. WEDNESDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW CANADIAN/ECMWF SHOW A FAIRLY DECENT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS. GFS SHOWING A FLATTER FLOW WITH VORT BULLSYSES WITHIN THE FLOW. SO LEANING TOWARDS THE MORE BELIEVABLE REPRESENTATION OF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AT THIS POINT. STILL...TIMING ISSUES AT THE OUTSET...THOUGH CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS CONVERGES TOWARDS A WETTER LOOK LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...SCT TO NMRS SHRA EXPCD THIS MRNG AHEAD OF SFC BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. DEEPENING RH AHEAD OF SFC FRONT AND WINDS TURNING MORE SLY IN THE LOW LEVELS PULLING LARGE AREA OF MVFR STRATUS NWD TOWARD SRN WI. HENCE THINKING CIGS WL LWR TO MVFR DRNG THE MRNG...LINGERING INTO THE AFTN IN THE ERN TAF SITES BEFORE LIFTING BY EARLY EVE. MAY BE AN ISOLD TSTM BUT WL HOLD OUT OF TAF FOR NOW. && .MARINE...LATEST AVHRR SST CONTINUE TO SHOW COOLER WATERS IN THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...WHILE WARMER SST TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S JUST BEYOND 5NM. THESE MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED GUSTIER WINDS TO REACH SURFACE AT MID-LAKE WHERE 45007 BUOY WIND GUSTS NOW IN THE MID 20S WITH 5FT WAVES. HENCE WINDIER CONDITONS EXPCD FOR A TIME TOWARD MID-LAKE WITH COOLER WATERS PREVENTING HIGHER GUSTS AT THE SHORE. PRES GRADIENT LOOSENS LATER THIS MRNG AS SFC BOUNDARY APPROACHES LAKE MI. SW WNDS WL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WL MOV ACRS LAKE MI SUN NGT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR AVIATION/MARINE...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 120825 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 325 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON SHOWER CHANCE TONIGHT THEN HANDLING MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH MIDWEEK SYSTEM. TODAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH WATER VAPOR/RUC SHOW STRONG NW UPPER FLOW WITH MAIN VORTICITY ACTION MOVING SE FROM CANADA TO THE U.P. BY 00Z MONDAY. 850 WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. 925 TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 20C DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH FULL SUN WILL LEAN TOWARDS WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. TONIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE AREA WITH NAM SHOWING HIGHER CAPE DUE TO INFLATED PROGGD SURFACE DEW POINTS. NAM ALSO SHOWING A BETTER SURGE OF 850 DEW POINTS REACHING INTO SOUTHERN WI WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY OF 850 THERMAL RIDGE. GFS/ECWMF HAVE BETTER MOISTURE AND THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF WI. WILL GO WITH VERY SMALL POPS NEAR THE ILLINOIS BORDER THIS EVENING. MONDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BENIGN NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES WITH SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES DRAWAING CLOSER FROM MINNESOTA AND IOWA. OVERALL NEUTRAL ADVECTION. TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM EXPECTING THE DRY LOOK TO PERSIST WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE. WAA PRECIP GETS GOING TO OUR WEST. ALL MODELS FOCUS THIS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS IOWA. NAM/ECMWF MOST AGGRESSIVE ON ADVANCING THIS INTO EXTREME SW WI BY 00Z WEDNESDAY BUT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DRIER LOOK OF THE GFS/CANADIAN. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM 00Z ECMWF HAS PULLED BACK SLIGHTLY ON EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW FROM THE PLAINS. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLY QUICKER WITH BRINGING IN THE ISENTROPIC INDUCED PRECIP. THERE ARE ALSO FURTHER EAST WITH LOW CENTER. GFS QUITE A BIT SLOWER. CANADIAN A COMPRMISE SOLUTION. WILL NEED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE VARYING SOLUTIONS. GREATEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIP COMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS THE GFS CATCHES UP THE ECMWF SOLUTION. CONSISTENCY THERE TOO. WILL STOP JUST SHORT OF GOING LIKELY FOR THIS TIME FRAME. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES NOT GREAT...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF GRIDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOW PASSES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY WITH PRECIP LINGERING. MORE SOUTHERN POSITION OF ECMWF LOW CENTER WOULD FAVOR A LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE. SO HIGHEST POPS THURSDAY MORNING THEN GRADUALLY TRIMMING THEM INTO THURSDAY EVENING. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PD. FEW-SCT CU THIS AFTN. THINKING NAM OVERDOING AMOUNT OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LATER THIS EVE ASSOCD WITH BRIEF BURST OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. MAY BE PD OF MID LEVEL CLDS ASSOCD WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF WK LOW PRES TROF BUT THINKING BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLD -SHRA WL BE SOUTH OF TAF SITES. && .MARINE...W-SW SFC WNDS GUSTING TO 13 TO 18KTS THIS AFTN SHOULD BE STRONG ENUF TO PREVENT LAKE BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING.. .WITH ABOUT 4MB ISOBAR SPACING ORIENTATED PERPENDICULAR TO THE SHORE FROM IL/WI BORDER TO GRB. WEAK SFC TROF PUSHES ACRS LAKE MI THIS EVE AS SFC WNDS VEER TO NW. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION INCRS BEHIND THIS TROF LATER TNGT INTO MON...HWVR ADVECTION NOT STRONG ENUF TO PUNCH THRU STABLE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DUE TO COLDER NEARSHORE WATERS... ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO SHORE. WITH SST TEMPS JUST BEYOND 5NM IN THE WARMER LOW TO MID 60S PER RECENT AVHRR/MODIS IMAGERY...GUSTS WL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS MON AFTN TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR AVIATION/MARINE...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 122027 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 327 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. .TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. POCKET OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN NORTHEAST IOWA MARKING VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT WILL MOVE ALONG THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z MONDAY. SOME MODELS CARRYING LIGHT QPF INTO FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH INTERACTION OF WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG TROUGH/WIND SHIFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION REFLECTED IN ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 305K SURFACE. CAPE AROUND 400 J/KG ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE ORDER OF 100MB...HIGH BASES TO THE CLOUDS AND LACK OF RADAR RETURNS OR GROUND REPORTS DEPTH OF DRY AIR FROM SURFACE TO 10K FT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THIS EVENING. NEUTRAL TO WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN CONFLUENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MONDAY DRY. MIXING UP TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND +9C IN THE NORTH AND +11C SOUTH WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S NORTH...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTH. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. NEXT SHORT WAVE BRINGS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION REACHES WESTERN CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY...THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. DRY EASTERLY FEED AROUND SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIMIT SHOWERS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE BEST LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAX. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE DROP MONDAY NIGHT...AND AMOUNT OF WARMING ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. AGAIN WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND TUESDAY WAVE LIMITING MIXING UP TO 925MB TEMPS OF 12C TO 13C SO MID 60S HIGHS REASONABLE. EAST WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY INCREASE IN TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW. UPPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS. LITTLE TO NO ELEVATED CAPE...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 6C OR LESS...BUT WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER TO ACKNOWLEDGE DYNAMIC LIFT AND POSSIBLE STEEPER LAPSE RATES WITH VORTICITY MAX PASSING OVER REGION. WILL KEEP A CHANCE IN FOR THURSDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER MOVEMENT ON ECMWF. MODELS AGREE THAT A 850-700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP OVER SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL FOR THE THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS ABOUT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND VORTEX CROSSING ONTARIO...AND TIMING OF BACKED FLOW OVER NEARLY STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE IN RESPONSE TO EACH WAVE. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST...AND THEN CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR STALLED BOUNDARY BEING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A SUBTLE LOW PRES TROUGH. THESE CLOUDS WOULD CROSS THE CWA FROM 22Z TO 02Z. HOWEVER...DOUBTING THAT ANY SHOWER/TSTORMS WILL COME OUT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY OUT OF THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. && .MARINE...LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LATER TNGT INTO MON. HOWEVER...THE ADVECTION WILL NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUNCH THROUGH THE STABLE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DUE TO COLDER NEARSHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO SHORE. WITH SEA SFC TEMPS JUST BEYOND 5NM IN THE WARMER LOW TO MID 60S PER RECENT AVHRR/MODIS IMAGERY...GUSTS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS MON AFTN TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...09 AVIATION/MARINE...13  FXUS63 KMKX 130819 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 319 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2010 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS MAINLY ON MIDWEEK SYSTEM. TODAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH BENIGN NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES WITH SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES DRAWAING CLOSER FROM MINNESOTA AND IOWA. OVERALL NEUTRAL ADVECTION. COLUMN VERY DRY. 925 TEMPS SUPPORT THE WARMER MAV MOS NUMBERS. TONIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP DEVELOPING WELL WEST OF OUR AREA. TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM EXPECTING THE DRY LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE. WAA PRECIP GETS GOING TO OUR WEST. ALL MODELS FOCUS THIS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS IOWA. MODELS HAVE TRENDED QPF INTO THE SW CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST FRINGE OF THIS COMPLEX. RIGHT REAR QUADRANT UPPER DIVERGENCE AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILTY SUGGESTS SOME MINOR THUNDER POTENTIAL. GFS QPF MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A COUPLE TENTHS INTO THE FAR SW CWA. HOWEVER GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO COLUMN MOISTURE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WITH A BUFFER OF SLIGHT AROUND THAT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM BULK OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OMEGA INDUCED FROM DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WILL START BRINGING CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS FORCING WITH UPPER WAVE COMES ACROSS THE AREA. FAIRLY STRONG 700 OMEGA PEAKS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FOCUSES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING. 00Z NAM HAS THE FURTHEST SOUTH POSITION OF THE LOW NEAR KSTL WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z CANADIAN HAVE THE LOW NEAR KMPX. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN WITH A TREND SOUTHWARD WITH A LOW TRACK THAT LOOKS VERY MUCH LIKE THE GFS...NEAR KORD AT 12Z THURSDAY. WILL HAVE PRECIP WINDING DOWN AS DAY WEARS ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THOUGH INFLUENCE OF CANADAIN UPPER TROUGH DROPS AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN WI. THIS MAY KEEP FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON A SLOWER PACE. MODELS SUGGEST FRONTAL PRECIP LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF TAKING ON A FAIRLY ROBUST SOLUTION. AT THE MOMENT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DRY CONSENSUS MOS FOR THE DAY PERIOD AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...EXPC PATCHY AC TO THIN WITH INCRD NW DRIER FLOW EARLY THIS MRNG. FEW-SCT CU MAY DEVELOP THIS MRNG BEFORE DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN ON GUSTY NW WINDS INTO THE LOWER LEVELS...HELPING TO THIN ANY CU. OTRW MID-HIGH CLOUDS WL INCREASE TNGT AHEAD OF VIGOROUS S/W PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST. STILL QUESTIONS ON EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACRS SRN WI ON TUE. && .MARINE...GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING OVER INLAND AREAS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS INTO NEARSHORE AREAS...WHILE AREAS TOWARD THE OPEN WATER MORE PROTECTED BY LOW LEVEL STABILITY AND COOLER SST TEMPS. LIKELY TO BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25KTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHT BUT AT THIS POINT...DID NOT THINK GUSTS WOULD BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. BEAUTIFUL AVHRR IMAGE FROM 19Z/12 SHOWED NEARSHORE SST TEMPS AS LOW AS THE LOW 50S OFF THE PORT WASHINGTON AND SHEBOYGAN COASTS...WITH SST WARMING TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT MID LAKE. NEXT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE WED NGT AND THU AS SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR AVIATION/MARINE...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 300825 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 325 AM CDT THU SEP 30 2010 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIP POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN ASSESSING FROST/FREEZE DISTRIBUTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TODAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH DRIER DEW POINTS IN THE 40S ADVECTING IN WITH NNW WINDS. QUIET NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. 925 TEMPS OF 12-13C SUPPORT GUID NUMBERS FOR HIGHS. MIXING TO 800 MILLIBARS SUGGESTS BREEZY FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND A LITTLE TIGHTER GRADIENT THROUGH MIDDAY. SURFACE WIND PROGS AND BUFKIT SHOW A NOTICEABLE SLACKENING WITH TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT LOOSENS UP A BIT. TONIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM DRY AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AFFECTING NORTHERN WI INTO NORTHERN MN. WHILE WINDS SLACKEN 2 METER TEMPS AND MOS SUPPORT READINGS ABOVE FROSTY LEVELS. FRIDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW SURFACE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP LOOKING TO BE POST FRONTAL. QPF TIED MORE TO 925-850 CONVERGENCE WITH STRONG 850 BAROCLINIC ZONE LAGGING THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE PUT IN POPS CWA WIDE IN THE AFTERNOON. ECMWF/GEM LESS EXCITED ABOUT THIS...BUT WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COMBINED WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL FORCING...WILL HAVE SOME POPS IN PLACE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. NAM SOUNDINGS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE THAN THE GFS. DECIDED TO GO FOR A NON-DIURNAL LOOK TO THE TEMPS GIVEN DOWNWARD PUSH IN 925 TEMPS AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ALONG WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHERLY. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...LOW UPPER FLOW STRONGLY CYCLONIC WITH 850 COLD POOL IN PLACE. 850 WINDS 20-25 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH. 1000-850 WINDS FROM THE NAM/ECMWF ACTUALLY BEND NNE BEFORE 00Z. THIS COMBINED WITH POTENTIAL FOR STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW SUGGEST SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP IT IN THE FAR EAST FOR NOW. FROST POTENTIAL AND DEGREE OF INLAND LAKE INFLUENCE A HUGE QUESTION MARK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. ON THE ONE HAND GFS SUGGESTS LESS LAKE INFLUENCE WHILE THE NEW ECMWF AND NAM BOTH SHOW 1000-850 WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH MID TEEN DELTA T VALUES. HAVE KEPT SOME LAKE INFLUENCE GOING DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH MAY END UP BEING QUITE LIMITED TO THE SHORELINE...ESPECIALLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. INLAND LOCALES WILL HAVE BETTER FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL WITH LIGHTER WINDS. MAY BE ONE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN NO FROST/FROST/FREEZE FROM EAST TO WEST BASED ON POTENTIALLY WIDE VARIATION IN WIND/CLOUD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES. UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST. GEM A COMPROMISE OF THE SLOWER ECMWF AND FASTER GFS. THINK A MORE CLEAR CUT RADIATIONAL NIGHT SETS UP CWA WIDE WITH LITTLE IF ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD POTENTIAL AND A GREATER DEPTH TO LIGHTER WIND REGIME. EXPANDED PATCHY FROST ALL THE WAY TO LAKE AS WELL. MONDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM GFS VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH UPPER TROUGH WHILE CANADIAN SLOWS MOVEMENT TO NEARLY MATCH UP WITH ECMWF. EVEN IF THE LATTER 2 ARE CORRECT INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO NOT HAVE A PRECIP IMPACT IN SOUTHERN WI. HOWEVER GUIDANCE TEMPS AFFECTED WITH 925 TEMPS FROM ECMWF ALSMOST HALF OF WHAT THE GFS IS IMPLYING. FOR NOW WENT WITH A A BLEND ON TEMPS. && .AVIATION...DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PD. WL LIKELY BE FEW-SCT CU TODAY WITH LESS CU IN THE AFTN AS EVEN DRIER AIR MIXES DRY ADIABATICALLY TO SFC. ONLY VERY PATCHY GROUND FOG EXPCD LATE TNGT WHICH SHOULD NOT HAVE AN EFFECT ON TAF SITES. && .MARINE...HOISTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY. MAIN PERIOD OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM AROUND 15Z THROUGH 21Z. LOWER LEVELS WL CONT TO DRY WITH DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SETTING UP LATER THIS MRNG...TAPPING INTO 850-900MB. WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER IN THE LOW LEVELS THAN NAM GUIDANCE AS DEPICTED BY UPSTREAM TAMDAR SOUNDINGS AND ALSO 00Z KMPX SOUNDING. VWP AND PROFILER LOW LEVEL DATA CONTAMINATED FROM PASSING DENSITY DISCONTINUITIES. FREQUENT GUSTS 22 TO 25KTS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME OVER LANDMASS...WHICH WILL PENETRATE INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. FARTHER OFF THE COAST...STRONGER WINDS WL HAVE MORE DIFFICULT TIME PENETRATING LOW LEVEL INVERSION DUE TO SEA SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 50S. WINDSPEEDS WL DROP QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVE. AVHRR SST IMAGE FROM WED AFTN SHOWING 10 DEGREE C GRADIENT FROM NEARSHORE WATERS TO 45007 BUOY. WOULD THINK SOME UPWELLING WL TAKE PLACE TODAY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS DUE TO STRONGER NW BREEZES. BACKDOOR CDFNT EXPCD TO SAG THRU FRI AFTN AND EVE...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS LIKELY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRI NGT INTO SAT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR AVIATION/MARINE...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 160754 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 254 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2010 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. .TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL ABOUT 8 OR 9 AM...MOSTLY WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY...AND THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SHEBOYGAN TO WEST BEND TO LAKE GENEVA WHERE THE WINDS ARE WEAKER. VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 3/4 TO 2 MILES EXPECTED...BUT NOT DENSE FOG WHICH STARTS AT 1/4 MILE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF OHIO RIVER VALLEY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PULL WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI TODAY...IN THE RANGE OF 12C TO +14C 925 MB TEMPERATURES IN THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF DRY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. WARMER TEMPERATURES TO REACH TO THE LAKESHORE ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. NO PCPN EXPECTED WITH FRONT AS MOISTURE LIMITED...WITH BETTER FORCING STAYING WELL NORTH CLOSER TO SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SUNDAY...SO LOWS AND HIGHS A FEW POINTS LOWER THAN ON SATURDAY. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY DUE TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. .SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. DIVERGENCE WITH RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET AIDING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SHEARED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITH SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN STILL GETTING SOME DIFF/L VORTICITY ADVECTION. INITIAL PCPN WILL BE VIRGA UNTIL VERTICAL COLUMN BECOME MOIST. FRONTO-FORCING AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE STILL PRESENT AS SHORT WAVE SWINGS THRU...WITH LINGERING EFFECTS INTO MONDAY. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. .MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. COLD AIR ADVECTION SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. ON TUESDAY A 3RD WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH MN INTO IA AND THEN IL...KEEPING MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED LIFT AWAY FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MAYBE SOME BANDS OF CLOUDS AT MOST FOR SOUTHERN WI. .WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM. AS WE GO FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE MODELS DIFFER ON AMPLITUDE AND DIGGING STRENGTH OF UPPER TROF OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. GFS IS DEEPER WHILE THE ECMWF IS FLATTER...SLOWER..AND MORE EAST WITH THE TROF. IF GFS PANS OUT WE WILL HAVE CHANCES OF PCPN AND MORE CLOUDS WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROF. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN AND NEAR FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTY TO BE CONSISTENT WITH MY NEIGHBORS. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH THE MAX NUMBERS SLOWLY WARMING THRU THE 60S FROM WED INTO FRI. && .AVIATION...SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY DVLP THIS MRNG IN BRIEF SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LINGER INTO THE AFTN. FEW-SCT CU MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS SFC FRONT PASSES THRU THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE...HWVR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. ONLY PROBLEM IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AT KENW WITH MVFR FOG. EXPC PATCHY FOG AT KENW TO THIN AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MRNG AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASES. && .MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING WEAK FRONT AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS LTR THIS MRNG...VEERING FROM MOSTLY THE SOUTH TO THE SW. WINDSPEEDS WILL REMAIN BLO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TODAY. AFTER FROPA THIS EVE...LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR WARM LAKE SURFACE MAY ALLOW FEW GUSTS TO EXCEED 20KTS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM SHORE. LAKE SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 14-15C PER LATEST AVHRR/MODIS IMAGERY. FOR NOW...WL HOLD OFF ON SMALL CRAFT FOR TNGT AND LET LATER SHIFTS REEVALUATE. PRES GRADIENT LOOSENS SUN MRNG AS LOW LEVEL ADVECTION BECOMES NEUTRAL. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...34 AVIATION/MARINE...11  FXUS63 KMKX 070924 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 324 AM CST SUN NOV 7 2010 TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER WRN GTLAKES. APPEARS BOTH NAM AND GFS OVERDOING AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TODAY AS SOURCE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HENCE WL KNOCK DOWN DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S FOR THIS AFTN...WHICH COULD STILL BE TOO WARM. LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP RIGHT ALONG LAKESHORE IN SOME AREAS AFT 20Z AS PRESS GRADIENT WEAKENS...ALLOWING THERMAL GRADIENT TO TAKE OVER. LAKE BREEZE WOULD LIKELY REMAIN CLOSE TO SHORE DUE TO LINGERING SW FLOW INLAND. OTRW...925H TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 10C WHICH SHOULD HELP DAYTIME TEMPS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60...HENCE WL GO AOA WARMER MET NUMBERS. DRY AIRMASS WL ALSO HELP TEMPS WARM RAPIDLY. FEW HIGH CLOUDS COULD PUSH IN LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. MONDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN TAKING DECENT SHORTWAVE FROM SRN MN/NRN IA VICINITY TO NW WI. VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS ARE DECENT AND WAVE HAS A NEGATIVE TILT TO IT. 700 OMEGA IN PLACE...THOUGH COLUMN IS STILL BONE DRY. MIXING STILL PROGGD TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW THOUGH STILL THINK LOW 60S REACHABLE. TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL US IN REPSONSE TO UPPER TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ON ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPANNING THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. MILD FLOW CONTINUES THOUGH SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY WILL OFFER SOME COOLING IN THE EAST. BETTER INLAND MIXING UP TO 900-925 MILLIBARS WITH 11-12C SUPPORTS SOME HIGHS REACHING PUSHING MID 60S. WEDNESDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW SHORTWAVE ON EASTERN SIDE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. GFS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NOISIER WITH VORT PATTERN. CANADIAN DOES LEND SOME CREDENCE TO GFS SOLUTION...THOUGH ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING FURTHER NORTHWEST...THUS THE DRY LOOK. THURSDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM STRONG SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW FAVORS SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION AND THUS A SOLUTION LOOKING MORE LIKE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN RATHER THAN THE GFS. WILL KEEP THE FRONT MORE IN PLAY ACROSS THE CWA WHICH NECESSITATES POPS AND CONSENSUS IS IN LINE WITH THIS. FRIDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW WHILE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AMONGST THE MODELS IS IS A QUESTION MARK...CONSISTENT AMONGST THE MODELS IS THE 850 MILLIBAR BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN WI. GRANTED...ORIENTATION OF THE ZONE IS NOT CONSISTENT...BUT MODELS BOTH GENERATE QPF RELATED TO THE FORCING. THERE IS ALSO A SUGGESTION FROM THE MODELS OF SOME RIGHT REAR QUADRANT JET DYNAMICS AT PLAY. SATURDAY- CONFIDENCE...VERY LOW DRPROGS SHOW A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIATION. A TREND NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IS TOWARDS A STRONGER SOLUTION CLOSER TOWARDS OUR AREA. GIVEN THE UPPER JET STREAM AND PROXIMITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE THIS SEEMS TO HAVE MERIT...BUT OVERALL GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES AND LACK OF CONSESNSUS...HARD TO FEEL CERTAIN ABOUT MUCH. && .AVIATION...DRY AIRMASS PREVAILS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ELEVATED INVERSION PUTTING KIBOSH ON CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. CAN NOT RULE OUT FEW-SCT CI AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE TNGT AS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES WRN WI FROM CENTRAL PLAINS. && .MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR BORDERLINE WINDS AND WAVES THIS MRNG DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE MI. GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD OPEN WATERS. SHIP REPORT 10NM ENE OF SBM SHORE REPORTED 25KT SUSTAINED WINDS AT 06Z WHERE AVHRR SST SHOWED LAKE TEMPS AROUND 6C. SOME AREAS OF NEARSHORE REMAIN AROUND 10C SO GUSTINESS STILL LIKELY THIS MORNING BEFORE GRADIENT FURTHER WEAKENS. PRESS GRADIENT WEAKENS ENUF TO ALLOW LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR AVIATION/MARINE...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 080919 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 319 AM CST MON NOV 8 2010 TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. INITIAL SURGE OF ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN SCT- BKN CS ACROSS WI OVERNIGHT. MORE SCT CS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM CLOSER TO STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN ERN SODAK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RH OVR ERN NE INTO WRN IA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN PARCHED THIS PERIOD...BUT ENUF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ELEVATED MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT FEW-SCT CS AND PERHAPS SOME HIGHER AC TODAY AS SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS WRN WI/MN. SHOULD STILL MANAGE M/S CONDITIONS HOWEVER WITH WARM AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING MIXING TO 925H. EXPC TEMPS TO STILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ON SUN MOST AREAS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL COOL LAKESHORE AREAS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN THE AFTN AS LATEST MODIS/AVHRR IMAGERY HAS SST IN NEARSHORE IN THE 6 TO 10 C RANGE. QUIET TNGT WITH TEMPS SLIPPING BACK TO CLOSER TO COOLER MAV NUMBERS MOST AREAS. TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL US IN REPSONSE TO UPPER TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ON ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPANNING THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. MILD FLOW CONTINUES THOUGH SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY WILL OFFER SOME COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CWA. BETTER INLAND MIXING AND LESS LAKE INFLUENCE. WENT WITH ECMWF COMPROMISE APPROACH ON THE 925 TEMP STRUCTURE WITH NAM LOOKING TOO WARM AND GFS TOO COLD. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM STRONGLY NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE DRAWS CLOSER ON EASTERN SIDE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL TO THE WEST. 850 MILLIBAR LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WELL WEST OF WISCONSIN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS QUITE PARCHED. WILL GO WITH THE DRY LOOK FOR WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DEPICTED TO AFFECT AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH NAM MORE AGGRSSIVE WITH DCVA. NAM ALSO SHOWING MORE COLUMN MOISTURE THAN THE GFS. EVEN STILL NAM HAS QPF JUST GRAZING THE NORTHERN CWA. FOR NOW THE SMALLISH POPS ARE STILL OK. THURSDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM WHAT IS LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGD TO EXTEND FROM ILLINOIS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. 850 RIDGING POKES ACROSS WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY AFFECTING MN INTO NW WI BUT NOT MUCH TO LATCH ONTO HERE IN SRN WI. ECMWF THROWING OUT LIGHT AND SEEMINGLY RANDOM QPF INTO SRN WI THOUGH WILL SIDE WITH OTHER MODELS AND KEEP THE DRY LOOK. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM MODELS SHOW CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER JET AND 850 MILLIBAR BAROCLINIC ZONE BEING THE MAIN PLAYERS FOR PRECIPITATION. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LIKELY POPS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOTS OF UNCERTAINLY WITH RESPECT TO THE 500 MILLIBAR PATTERN. GFS AND CANADIAN EVOLVE A CLOSED LOW RIGHT ON WI/IL BORDER 12Z SATURDAY WHILE ECMWF SHOWING A NORTHENR STREAM UPPER LOW BEING DOMINANT WHILE WHISKING A WEAKER REFLECTION OF THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD. HPC TENDS TO FAVOR THE LATTER AND THE ENSEMBLES. SATURDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR THAT ENDS UP GETTING WRAPPED BACK IN. ECMWF IS ACTUALLY COLDER THOUGH BULK OF PRECIP HAS ALREADY SHIFTED EAST. 850 TEMPS DROP TO -3 TO -5C BY 00Z SUNDAY BUT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS LEFTOVER. MAY NOT GET THROUGH THIS SYSTEM WITHOUT SEEING SOME FLAKES. SUNDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW GFS SHOWS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DUMBBELLING AROUND THE FIRST WAVE WHILE ECMWF SHOWING A SEPERATE PIECE OF ENERGY HEADING NORTHEAST IN A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE WARMER ECMWF THERMAL PROFILE. && .AVIATION...PASSING CI ASSOCD WITH SHORT WAVE WL CONT TO AFFECT WI TODAY WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS TNGT AS NRN PLAINS SHORT WAVE PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST. LOWER LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY DURING THE PD. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONT WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE BY AFTN IN EAST. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE...MBK  FXUS63 KMKX 030818 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 318 AM CDT MON OCT 3 2011 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH GENERAL BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING CONTROL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER ERN CONUS HAS RETROGRADED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OVER PAST 24 HOURS AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND FEATURE. THIS RETROGRESSION WL RESULT IN A MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW OVER LAKE MI TODAY AND MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE. HOWEVER DRIER AIR MASS AND WARMER LOW LEVELS REDUCING THE DELTA-T WILL MINIMIZE THREAT FOR LAKE CLOUDS TODAY. FROM AVHRR IMAGER...LAKE SFC TEMP RANGES FROM THE MID 50S AT MID-LAKE TO NEAR 60 CLOSER TO SHORE IN THE SHALLOWER WATERS. GFS DEWPTS ONCE AGAIN TOO WARM BY 5 DEGREES EARLY THIS MRNG SO WL BACK OFF SLIGHTLY THIS AFTN FROM GUIDANCE NUMBERS. HOWEVER DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT WARMER THIS MORNING...MORE LOCATIONS SHOULD BREAK INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA. ONSHORE WINDS AND MORE MIXING WL KEEP TEMPS COOLER IN THE EAST. UPPER LOW OVER PA/MD AREA BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING TROFFING OVER WRN CONUS INTO ERN PACIFIC SHIFTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIGHTLY EWD. LINGERING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL RH AND LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. .TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED...SUGGESTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED IN THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD BY WEDNESDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL WEEK AND WEEKEND AHEAD. COULD BE A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A COUPLE WEAK WAVES WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE MILDER TEMPS...HAVE BUMPED HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO...NOW EXPECTING TEMPS TO APPROACH 80 IN THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE LAKE THE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND...RUNNING A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE A BIT EAST OF SOUTH AT TIMES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WHEN THEY ARE NOT...A LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY TURN THE FLOW ONSHORE IN THE EAST. GRADIENT FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH SATURDAY TO PUSH THE WARMEST TEMPS TO THE LAKE. OVERALL THOUGH...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE COOLER TOWARD THE LAKE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...HIGHER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL KEEP ANY FOG PATCHY AND LIGHT EARLY THIS MORNING... EXCEPT IN THE WI RVR VLY. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS EXPCD TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER THREAT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. FEW-SCT ST MAY FORM OVER LAKE AND AFFECT FAR ERN CWA LATER TODAY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...MBK TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV