FXUS66 KLOX 062111 CCA AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 110 PM PST TUE JAN 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER AND CLOUDIER CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...ONE MORE 80 DEGREE DAY FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPS DROP ALL THE WAY TO THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND *GASP* 60S BY THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE IS STARTING TO BREAK DOWN AND THIS WILL DO A COUPLE THINGS. FIRST, IT WILL WEAKEN THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DOWNSLOPE WARMING, EVEN FOR TOMORROW. SECOND, IT WILL PERMIT THE INTRUSION OF A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM AN UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH OFF THE BAJA COAST. WE'LL START SEEING HIGH CLOUDS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY, BUT THICKENING UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THU, TO THE POINT WHERE THE SUN LIKELY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY OBSCURED THU AND LIKELY FRI AS WELL. SO THE SKY FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT A CLOUDIER SKY. WHILE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT 700-300 MB MOISTURE THERE IS VIRTUALLY NOTHING BELOW THAT SO AT THIS POINT REALLY NO CONCERN FOR PRECIP. HOWEVER, IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE POES AMSU SATELLITE IS ESTIMATING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL JUST OFF SRN BAJA STRETCHING SOUTH TO BELOW 20 DEG NORTH LAT. SO IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH MOVING FORWARD. AT THE VERY LEAST A LOT OF CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS, THOUGH STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND TO COOL TEMPS A BIT FURTHER. THE BIG MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD BE EXITING BY LATER FRIDAY BUT SKIES WILL STILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY FROM THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF. LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE TRENDED EVEN DRIER THAN EARLIER RUNS AND IT NOW APPEARS EVEN LESS LIKELY FOR ANY SORT OF PRECIP WITH THE TROF THIS WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BUT NO SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE FLOW TO BOOST TEMPS MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER 70S. LOOKING FARTHER OUT, THE LONG WAVE PATTERN MAINTAINS A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND TROFFING FOR THE EASTERN US, SO PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS ARE DIM AT BEST. && .AVIATION...06/1800Z. AT 1725Z...THERE WAS AN INVERSION BASED AT 100 FEET AND TOPPING OUT AT 2500 FEET AND 22C AT KLAX. CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP ALL SITES VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 20% OF LLWS AT KVNY/KBUR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. NORTHEASTERLY WIND AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS MORNING...BEFORE WEAK SEA BREEZE KICKS IN AROUND 22Z. KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF LLWS THRU THE TAF PERIOD (ESPECIALLY 18Z TO 22Z TODAY). && .MARINE...06/900 AM PST. FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR THE INNER WATERS...WEAK FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM POINT MUGU TO SANTA MONICA WHERE LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LIKELY (WITH LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE OF REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS). && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET SYNOPSIS...KITTELL WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES