FXUS62 KILM 300139 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 939 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING HISTORIC FLOODING RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP PERFECTLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 9 PM WEDNESDAY...AN EPIC AND HISTORIC FLOODING EVENT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION. RAINFALL RECORDS THAT WERE SET DURING 1999'S HURRICANE FLOYD...A ONCE IN 500 YEAR STORM...ARE GOING TO BE THREATENED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A TREMENDOUS STREAM OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLAM ONSHORE. REPORTS OF ROAD CLOSURES ARE PILING UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED TONIGHT. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NORTH ALABAMA IS DIRECTING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. POES TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONFIRMS MODEL PROJECTIONS OF PW'S IN THE 2.5 INCH RANGE. A SURFACE FRONT STALLED JUST OFF THE COAST IS ENHANCING LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...INCREASING PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WILL NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT A NEW BAROCLINIC LOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AND WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY...AND SHOULD DRAG THE SURFACE FRONT BACK INTO THE CAPE FEAR COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS BURGAW... WILMINGTON...BOLIVIA...AND ELIZABETHTOWN WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING STORM TOTALS AT WILMINGTON TO AT LEAST 21-22 INCHES AND MAY ECLIPSE THE 3 AND 4 DAY HURRICANE FLOYD TOTAL THAT IS THE RAINFALL EVENT OF RECORD FOR THIS AREA. FARTHER INLAND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE INTO COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOOD ONSHORE WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS. 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES NEAR 250 M2/S2 COUPLED WITH CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG COULD CREATE A RISK FOR TORNADOES MUCH LIKE ONE WOULD SEE IN A LANDFALLING TROPICAL SYSTEM. REGARDLESS...925 MB WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS WILL GIVE ANY STRONG CONVECTION THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SYNOPTIC SURFACE WINDS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BEACHES. A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...ENDING THE HEAVY RAINFALL. HEAVY RAIN MAY PERSIST ALONG THE NC COAST THROUGH MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. AT THE COAST...PARTICULARLY THE NC COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING ONSHORE. TEMPS COULD RISE AS HIGH AS 76-77 DEGREES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR BY 3-4 AM...WITH A SCREAMING SOUTHEAST WIND. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PULLING N OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BEHIND THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED ACROSS THE AREA AND WE DO EXPECT THE RAIN TO END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AFTER SUNRISE WILL BE IN THE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH BALLPARK. RESIDUAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THU. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE DROPPING FROM JUST OVER 2 INCHES THU...TO LESS THAN AN INCH ON FRI. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF NICOLE...MOVES N AND WELL OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS FRI AND FRI NIGHT...EVEN DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY SAT MORNING. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AS WELL. MINIMUMS WILL DROP WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S FRI NIGHT WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND BY DAYBREAK SAT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLER DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING INTO THE REGION. THE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE FALL LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS RANGING BETWEEN 50 AND 56 DEGREES. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST WILL BE LATE MONDAY AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST AND PASSES TO OUR NORTH. IF THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST CLOSER THAN FORECAST THEN WE MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION LATER. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF IFR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS VALID PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN. CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON THURSDAY DUE TO DECREASING RAINFALL AND SLOWLY RISING CIGS. WITH SUCH A BUSY NIGHT...AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY ATTM...WILL FOCUS PRIMARILY ON NEXT 12 HOURS. CUTOFF UPPER LOW WELL WEST OF THE AREA IS TAPPING CARIBBEAN MOISTURE...AND THIS CONVEYOR IS DIRECTING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS DEPICTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE AND ENHANCE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE CONTINUED IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT ALL TERMINALS. AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...HAVE PREDOMINATE IFR WITH TEMPO IMPROVEMENTS. WITH THE COLUMN FULLY SATURATED...AND MORE RAIN CONTINUALLY MOVING INTO THE COAST...BELIEVE BOTH IFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL BE THE RULE. SOME LIFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AS WELL. THE INLAND TERMINALS...WHICH ARE FURTHER FROM MOISTURE CONVEYOR AND SURFACE BOUNDARY...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPO IFR VSBYS BUT PREDOMINATE IFR CIGS AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. AS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE COAST...SURFACE PG WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY CREATING GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KTS SEEM LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT. INLAND TERMINALS WILL ALSO SEE GUSTS TO 20 KTS. GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON SOLUTIONS FOR THURSDAY. CONTINUED MVFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...BUT THEN OPTIMISTICALLY IMPROVE CIGS AND VSBYS TO VFR BY THE END OF THIS VALID PERIOD. IF MOISTURE HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRYING THE COLUMN SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY EVE SO HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THAT AT LEAST PARTIALLY BY IMPROVING CIGS SLOWLY. WITH A VERY BUSY AND POOR AVIATION NIGHT AHEAD...WILL FOCUS MORE ON IMPROVEMENTS WITH LATER UPDATES. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE FRI/SAT. VFR SUN/MON. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 9 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ALONG A NEARLY STALLED FRONT ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST THIS EVENING. THIS LOW...NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE...WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFTS BACK TOWARD THE COAST AND WIND DIRECTIONS BECOME SOUTHEAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR AND COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 40-45 KNOTS EVEN OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 13-14 FT WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE...HIGHEST NEAR AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. WINDS ARE JUST NOW REALLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS AND WE EXPECT TO SEE SEA HEIGHTS INCREASE TREMENDOUSLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...GALE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THEN AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS N OF THE AREA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND WITH THAT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW GALE CRITERIA DURING THU AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING UP THE COAST THU NIGHT AND FRI...BUT THIS TIME FURTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AND MAY BRIEFLY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL PEAK THU MORNING...SUBSIDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR 6 FT FRI AND FRI NIGHT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD AND WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONT LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS MONDAY AS A THE DEVELOPING LOW TRAVERSES THE FRONTAL. SEAS ARE EXPECT TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET NEAR SHORE TO 4 TO 5 FEET 20 MILES OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND AND THEY WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE TO OVER 6 FEET ON MONDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BREAKERS OF 7 TO 10 FEET OVERNIGHT AND THU. THESE BREAKERS ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE OVERNIGHT AND THU FOR THE BEACHES OF NEW HANOVER...PENDER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU. THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT TIDAL DEPARTURES. WATER LEVELS SHOULD REACH THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE WHICH IS AT 1230A AND 1P THU. THE LOWEST OF THESE HIGH TIDES IS THE ONE OVERNIGHT. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...HEAVY RAIN AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WILL PREVENT WATER FROM DRAINING AND THIS WILL LEAD TO WATER LEVELS REMAINING NEAR THEIR PEAK FOR A LONGER DURATION. AT THIS TIME...DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON LOOKS MOST VULNERABLE FOR FLOODING ALONG THE CAPE FEAR DUE TO TIDAL INFLUENCES LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON GAGE SHOULD BE NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 6.25 FT. THIS REPRESENTS THE UPPER LIMITS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...BUT FALLS JUST SHORT OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. UP TO A FOOT OF WATER IS POSSIBLE ON WATER STREET. WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR ACTION STAGE. OTHERWISE...COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH WATER LEVELS WILL BE HIGH. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 930 PM...EXTRAORDINARY RECENT RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CAUSING LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HERE IS HOW WILMINGTON`S RECENT RAINFALL FITS INTO THE HISTORIC CLIMATE RECORD. OBSERVED TOTALS... SUNDAY SEP 26 0.59 INCHES MONDAY SEP 27 10.33 INCHES TUESDAY SEP 28 1.96 INCHES WEDNESDAY SEP 29 5.81 INCHES - AS OF 930 PM... 1-DAY ALL-TIME RECORDS... #1 13.38 INCHES 9/15/1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) #2 10.33 INCHES 9/27/2010 (MONDAY'S EVENT) #3 9.56 INCHES 8/31/2006 (TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO) #4 9.52 INCHES 9/29/1938 #5 8.04 INCHES 8/18/1879 ("GREAT BEAUFORT HURRICANE") 2-DAY ALL-TIME RECORDS... #1 17.71 INCHES 9/15 & 9/16 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) #2 14.73 INCHES 9/14 & 9/15 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) #3 12.29 INCHES 9/27 & 9/28 2010 (MONDAY/TUESDAY'S EVENT) #4 11.87 INCHES 10/7 & 10/8 2005 (TROPICAL STORM TAMMY) #5 11.54 INCHES 7/7 & 7/8 1950 3-DAY ALL-TIME RECORDS... #1 19.06 INCHES 9/14 - 9/16 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) #2 18.10 INCHES 9/27 - 9/29 2010 (ONGOING EVENT THROUGH 930 PM...) #3 17.71 INCHES 9/15 - 9/17 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) #4 14.73 INCHES 9/13 - 9/15 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) #5 13.44 INCHES 9/11 - 9/13 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) 4-DAY ALL-TIME RECORDS... #1 19.06 INCHES 9/14 - 9/17 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) #1 19.06 INCHES 9/13 - 9/16 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) #3 18.69 INCHES 9/26 - 9/29 2010 (ONGOING EVENT THROUGH 930 PM...) #4 17.71 INCHES 9/15 - 9/18 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) #5 14.73 INCHES 9/12 - 9/15 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) 5-DAY ALL-TIME RECORDS... #1 19.06 INCHES 9/14 - 9/18 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) #1 19.06 INCHES 9/13 - 9/17 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) #1 19.06 INCHES 9/12 - 9/16 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) #4 18.69 INCHES 9/26 - 9/29 2010 (ONGOING EVENT THROUGH 930 PM...) #5 17.71 INCHES 9/15 - 9/19 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) SEPTEMBER MONTHLY RAINFALL RECORDS... #1 23.41 INCHES 1999 (HURRICANES DENNIS & FLOYD) #2 20.10 INCHES 1877 ("HURRICANE FOUR") #3 18.94 INCHES 1984 (HURRICANE DIANA) #4 18.87 INCHES 2010 (ONGOING EVENT THROUGH 930 PM...) #5 16.93 INCHES 1924 ("HURRICANE FIVE" AND "TROP STORM EIGHT") && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023- 024-032>034-039-046. WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ034. NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096- 097-099>101. HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ097- 100-101. WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ097-100-101. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ101. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...JDW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD CLIMATE...TRA  FXUS62 KILM 130519 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 119 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NORTH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR MID-AUGUST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WAS ON THE ORDER OF 70 PERCENT OF OUR FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY. SOME NOTABLE TOTALS INCLUDE 1.55 INCHES AT ILM...2.17 INCHES AT THE KINGS GRANT (WILMINGTON) MESONET SITE...AND 1.78 INCHES AT THE SUNNY POINT MILITARY TERMINAL. AT THE SURFACE THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE BEAUFORT SC VICINITY AND IS BEST IDENTIFIABLE IN THE WIND DIRECTION FIELDS WITH A SHIFT FROM SOUTH WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. POES TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SUGGESTS MODELS MAY BE UNDERPLAYING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WITH 2.25 INCHES OBSERVED OFF THE SC/GA COAST. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH TODAY...MAINTAINING LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE AND CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL NO CAPPING AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE LAST TWO SREF ENSEMBLES SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...PERHAPS HIGHER THAN SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z GFS MOS. CELL MOVEMENT SHOULD BE TOWARD THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH...STILL SLOW ENOUGH GIVEN THE EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS TO OCCUR. ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED RISK OF A WET MICROBURST SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY... GENERALLY UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT 70-75. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LONG AWAITED PATTERN CHANGE IN FULL SWING AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL BE POISED TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. GOOD CHANCE THAT MANY PLACES WILL SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY WHEN THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION. SPC DOES HAVE OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON MONDAY WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN H/5 RIDGE TEMPORARILY NOSES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BEGIN DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OFFSHORE EARLY ON MONDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. OVERALL EXPECT DRY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POPS INCREASING ON FRIDAY AS UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION IMPROVES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 MOST LOCATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70 FOR LOWS. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...DUE TO NUMEROUS MESO-HIGHS AND MOIST SOILS FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN. BUT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE INHIBITED BY MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND RATHER STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR AT FLO/LBT WITH TEMPO IFR EVEN POSSIBLE AT LBT. AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR...BUT THERE COULD BE TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THROUGH SUNRISE. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE INDICATIONS OF AN EARLY START TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS/MVFR CEILINGS AND TEMPO IFR AT THE TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON AT FLO/CRE/MYR AND BY LATE AFTERNOON AT LBT/ILM. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...A WEAK NEARLY-STATIONARY FRONT IN THE BEAUFORT SC VICINITY WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH TODAY...BECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED WITH TIME. WINDS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE A STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT WITH WINDS AT THE CURRENT HOUR EASILY SUSTAINED AT 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS LATER TODAY SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND WITH SOME DECREASE IN SPEED AS WELL. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE RATHER WIDESPREAD... ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHIFTS INLAND WITH RISING TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE BEACHES. STORM MOTION WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH. REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAINFALL IS LARGEST EXPECTED THREAT WITH TODAY'S SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SEAS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 4 FT WITH 6 SECOND PERIODS...A CONSEQUENCE OF THE LARGE ZONE OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SEAS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWERING WIND SPEEDS. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY TO AROUND 15 KTS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INCREASED WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 4 FT ON SUNDAY. STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER WE WILL SEE INCREASED SWELL WAVE ENERGY FROM DISTANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES. THIS WILL DEPEND UPON THEIR DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF LONG TERM. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT TO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MEAN A LOOSE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS. SEAS WILL START OUT IN THE 4 FT RANGE...BUT WILL DECAY TO AROUND 2 OR 3 FT AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. AS WITH THE SHORT TERM...UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS TO HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION WE COULD SEE TO SWELL WAVE ENERGY FROM DISTANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES...SO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST COULD SEE A SUBSTANTIAL REVISION. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...REK AVIATION...MRR  FXUS62 KILM 152238 AAA AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 515 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BRINGING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A SECOND FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. && .UPDATED NEAR TERM FOR THE IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COASTS AND WATERS... AS OF 515 PM TUESDAY...HAVE UPDATED THE COASTAL WATERS AND ZONES BORDERING THE IMMEDIATE COAST...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE REDUCED VSBY THREAT FROM PATCHY/AREAS OF SEA FOG THAT WILL OCCASIONALLY AFFECT THE WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES. THE LATEST AVAILABLE SST MAP OF THE ILM WATERS USING AVHRR DATA FOR THE 2 DAYS ENDING ON NOV 14TH... INDICATED 2 PATCHES OF NOTEWORTHY COOL SHELF WATERS BETWEEN SURF CITY AND CAPE FEAR...TO NEARLY OUT TO THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...41013. AND THE SECOND PATCH LYING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN NORTH MYRTLE BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THIS 2ND ONE NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THE 1ST. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ADVECTING ACROSS THESE COOLER SHELF WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SEA FOG HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. A FEW LOCAL SURF CAMS HAVE ALSO SHOWCASED THE EXISTENCE OF THIS FOG. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND IS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR ADVECTING TROPICAL AIR NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW COVERS THE CAROLINAS. IT TOOK NEARLY 5 HOURS FOR THIS MORNING'S LOW STRATUS ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA TO MIX OUT...HOWEVER THIS MOISTURE STILL EXISTS AND SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW AND PERHAPS MORE EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM AND HAVE SO FAR REMAINED 20-60 MILES FROM SHORE. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO SHORE ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AND MAY PUSH UP TOWARD THE CAPE FEAR WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. GFS AND NAM MODELS SHOW SOME SYNOPTIC JET SUPPORT FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NEAR CAPE FEAR OVERNIGHT. WE ARE UNSURE IF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND AFFECT LAND AREAS AS WELL...SO WE ARE MAINTAINING ONLY SMALL POPS ACROSS BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMALS GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS...CLOUD COVER...A 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET...AND HIGH DEWPOINTS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM 62-66...WARMEST ALONG THE NC COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST. NWS CHARLESTON ALERTED US TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG OVER A PORTION OF THEIR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE CONDITIONS MAY BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SEA FOG ALONG THE GRAND STRAND THIS EVENING...AND PREVAILING WINDS COULD ADVECT THESE LOWER VISIBILITIES ONSHORE AFFECTING MYRTLE BEACH TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL PROVIDE GOOD SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS THE LOW LEVEL LIFTING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY THE MODEL TO BE VERY LOW AND THE LOW-LEVEL 0 TO 2.5 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE REACHES ALMOST 40 KNOTS. THE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY MAXIMUM APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS MODEL RUN AND IS RUNNING AHEAD OF THE MODEL CONVECTION...SO CONFIDENCE ON ISOLATED TORNADOES IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRI BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SAT WITH LOW LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 3K FT OR SO. CURRENT FORECAST IS DEVOID OF PRECIP HOWEVER THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LATER IN THE DAY SAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PATCHY OF RAIN. WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH QPF SHOULD SOMETHING DEVELOP WITH COASTAL NC THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE SOMETHING. AT THE VERY LEAST ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SAT INTO SUN. COASTAL TROUGH DISSIPATES SUN AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUN AND MON DRY MID LEVELS AND WEAK CAP...A RESULT OF BUILDING WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE...WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED NORTH OF THE AREA TUE WILL TRY AND DROP SOUTH DURING THE DAY. IF FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DO NOT THINK IT WOULD HAVE MUCH PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE FRONT IS STRETCHED OUT WITH THE DYNAMICS WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM WELL BELOW CLIMO AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO ABOVE CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRANSITION FROM BELOW CLIMO TO ABOVE WILL BE QUICK...BY SAT NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE CLIMO. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 18Z...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE ABUNDANT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. AFTER NIGHTFALL...EXPECT CEILINGS TO EITHER LOWER TO IFR...OR IFR CEILINGS WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...AS IT IS A BIT UNUSUAL TO GO IFR SO EARLY. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE. WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN KEEPING IFR CEILINGS IN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY...BREAKING TO MVFR AROUND 15-17Z...SLOWEST OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW...BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR IFR FOG/STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A VERY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. MODELS ARE PAINTING VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT DEPENDING ON THE BEHAVIOR OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM MODELS SHOW SYNOPTIC WINDS INCREASING TO 15-18 KT TONIGHT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SEAS BUILDING TO NEARLY 5 FT NEAR AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR. TWO EXPERIMENTAL NAM RUNS UTILIZING DIFFERENT MODEL PHYSICS MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT WHICH DISRUPTS THE WIND FIELDS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND RESULTS IN MUCH LOWER WIND SPEEDS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM OUR FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THOSE TWO SCENARIOS AND HAS WINDS BUILDING TO 12-15 KT OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NO HIGHER THAN 4 FT AT 20 MILES FROM SHORE. NWS CHARLESTON ALERTED US TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG NEAR TYBEE ISLAND...HILTON HEAD AND EDISTO BEACH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG OUR PORTION OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS WELL. WE ARE INCLUDING PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST WITHIN 5 MILES OF SHORE TONIGHT ALONG THE GRAND STRAND AND NEAR GEORGETOWN. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH OUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND THE LOCAL SWAN MODEL IS INDICATING THE SEAS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT OFF SHORE WINDS ON THURSDAY. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...POST FRONT COLD SURGE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FRI WILL DROP CLOSER TO 10 KT BY SAT MORNING AS GRADIENT. WEAK COASTAL TROF TAKING SHAPE WILL INDUCE A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. ADVISORY WORTHY SEAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DROP TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRI NIGHT AND REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAWKINS UPDATED NEAR TERM...DOUGH NEAR TERM...ARMSTRONG SHORT TERM...HAWKINS LONG TERM...III AVIATION...LOEWENTHAL  FXUS62 KILM 160128 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 755 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BRINGING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A SECOND FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 755 PM TUESDAY...THE ZONES BORDERING THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS WILL HAVE A CONTINUED THREAT OF SEA FOG OCCASIONALLY MOVING ONSHORE. THIS A RESULT OF SFC WINDS BOUNCING FROM 180-210 DEGREES. AS WINDS BECOME THE DOMINANT 210-230 DIRECTION AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR SEA FOG MOVING ONSHORE WILL DIMINISH. THE OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED -SHRA THIS EVENING WILL ALSO KEEP THE FOG AT BAY. THE LATEST AVAILABLE SST MAP OF THE WATERS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST USING AVHRR DATA FOR THE 2 DAYS ENDING ON NOV 14TH...INDICATED 2 PATCHES OF NOTEWORTHY COOL SHELF WATERS OFF THE CAROLINAS...WITH 12 BETWEEN SURF CITY AND CAPE FEAR...TO NEARLY OUT TO THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...41013. AND THE SECOND PATCH LYING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN NORTH MYRTLE BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THIS 2ND ONE NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THE 1ST. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ADVECTING ACROSS THESE COOLER SHELF WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO WED...SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST BORDERING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLL SHELF WATER AREAS. A FEW LOCAL SURF CAMS HAVE ALSO SHOWCASED THE EXISTENCE OF THE SEA FOG AT TIMES. PREVIOUS MIN FORECAST FOR TONIGHT LOOKING ON TARGET AND SEE NO REASON TO ALTER AT THIS POINT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................ AS OF 300 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND IS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR ADVECTING TROPICAL AIR NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW COVERS THE CAROLINAS. IT TOOK NEARLY 5 HOURS FOR THIS MORNING'S LOW STRATUS ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA TO MIX OUT...HOWEVER THIS MOISTURE STILL EXISTS AND SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW AND PERHAPS MORE EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM AND HAVE SO FAR REMAINED 20-60 MILES FROM SHORE. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO SHORE ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AND MAY PUSH UP TOWARD THE CAPE FEAR WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. GFS AND NAM MODELS SHOW SOME SYNOPTIC JET SUPPORT FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NEAR CAPE FEAR OVERNIGHT. WE ARE UNSURE IF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND AFFECT LAND AREAS AS WELL...SO WE ARE MAINTAINING ONLY SMALL POPS ACROSS BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES...AND HAVE EXPANDED TO THE GRAND STRAND. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMALS GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS...CLOUD COVER...A 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET...AND HIGH DEWPOINTS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM 62-66...WARMEST ALONG THE NC COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST. NWS CHARLESTON ALERTED US TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG OVER A PORTION OF THEIR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE...CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SEA FOG ALONG THE GRAND STRAND AND THE CAPE FEAR VICINITY. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL PROVIDE GOOD SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS THE LOW LEVEL LIFTING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY THE MODEL TO BE VERY LOW AND THE LOW-LEVEL 0 TO 2.5 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE REACHES ALMOST 40 KNOTS. THE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY MAXIMUM APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS MODEL RUN AND IS RUNNING AHEAD OF THE MODEL CONVECTION...SO CONFIDENCE ON ISOLATED TORNADOES IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRI BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SAT WITH LOW LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 3K FT OR SO. CURRENT FORECAST IS DEVOID OF PRECIP HOWEVER THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LATER IN THE DAY SAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PATCHY OF RAIN. WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH QPF SHOULD SOMETHING DEVELOP WITH COASTAL NC THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE SOMETHING. AT THE VERY LEAST ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SAT INTO SUN. COASTAL TROUGH DISSIPATES SUN AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUN AND MON DRY MID LEVELS AND WEAK CAP...A RESULT OF BUILDING WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE...WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED NORTH OF THE AREA TUE WILL TRY AND DROP SOUTH DURING THE DAY. IF FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DO NOT THINK IT WOULD HAVE MUCH PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE FRONT IS STRETCHED OUT WITH THE DYNAMICS WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM WELL BELOW CLIMO AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO ABOVE CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRANSITION FROM BELOW CLIMO TO ABOVE WILL BE QUICK...BY SAT NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE CLIMO. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 00Z...EXPECT CONTINUED AREAS OF PATCHY SEA FOG TO ADVECT ONSHORE AT KCRE/KMYR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...REDUCING VSBYS OFF AND ON TO MVFR BEFORE FLOW FROM VEERING WINDS STEER FOG AWAY FROM TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK. FOR KILM...CURRENT RADAR DEPICTS SOME -SHRA OFFSHORE. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER TO WRAP AROUND TO TERMINAL...AND POSSIBLY THE TWO OTHER COASTAL SITES...THUS HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH ROUGHLY 06Z WITH SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-8KTS. WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...ANTICIPATE CIGS AND VSBYS AT ALL SITES DETERIORATE AFTER 07Z DUE TO ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS. FOR NOW...ANTICIPATE LIFR/IFR CIGS...AND IFR/MVFR FOG THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOON AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR...WITH TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATING GUSTY WINDS 18-22KTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SOUTH- SOUTHWEST. TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD INTO THE NEXT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS ANTICIPATED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD CREATE ISOLATED TSRA AND IFR. EXPECT VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FOR POTENTIAL IFR FOG/STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 755 PM TUESDAY...THIS UPDATE HAS FOCUSED ON THE REFINEMENT AND PLACEMENT OF THE SEA FOG THREAT ACROSS THE ILM WATERS. FROM THE UPDATE EARLIER...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY/AREAS OF SEA FOG ACROSS THE ILM WATERS THROUGH OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE SST MAP OF THE ILM WATERS USING AVHRR DATA FOR THE 2 DAYS ENDING ON NOV 14TH...HAVING INDICATED 2 PATCHES OF NOTEWORTHY COOL SHELF WATERS...IE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH 1 BETWEEN SURF CITY AND CAPE FEAR...AND OUT TO NEARLY THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...41013. AND THE 2ND...LYING ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN NORTH MYRTLE BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THIS 2ND ONE NOT NEARLY AS PRONOUNCED AS THE 1ST. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THESE COOLER SHELF WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO WED. THIS WILL RESULT WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE ILM WATERS...PARTICULAR ACROSS THOSE COOL WATERS. A FEW LOCAL SURF CAMS HAVE EVEN SHOWCASED THE EXISTENCE OF THE SEA FOG. AS SYNOPTIC WINDS SLOWLY VEER FROM 190-230 OVERNIGHT INTO WED...THE THREAT FOR SEA FOG WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OR ATLEAST KEEP THE FOG FROM ADVECTING ONSHORE/INLAND. WILL INDICATE VSBY REDUCING TO 1NM OR LESS. IF ANY RECEIVED REPORTS AND/OR OBS INDICATE 1/2 NM OR LESS VSBYS...WILL THEN UPDATE AND ADVERTISE DENSE FOG. HAVE MAINTAINED THE WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THE LATEST HRRR KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................. AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A VERY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. MODELS ARE PAINTING VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT DEPENDING ON THE BEHAVIOR OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM MODELS SHOW SYNOPTIC WINDS INCREASING TO 15-18 KT TONIGHT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SEAS BUILDING TO NEARLY 5 FT NEAR AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR. TWO EXPERIMENTAL NAM RUNS UTILIZING DIFFERENT MODEL PHYSICS MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT WHICH DISRUPTS THE WIND FIELDS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND RESULTS IN MUCH LOWER WIND SPEEDS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM OUR FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THOSE TWO SCENARIOS AND HAS WINDS BUILDING TO 12-15 KT OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NO HIGHER THAN 4 FT AT 20 MILES FROM SHORE. NWS CHARLESTON ALERTED US TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG NEAR TYBEE ISLAND...HILTON HEAD AND EDISTO BEACH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG OUR PORTION OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS WELL. WE ARE INCLUDING PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST WITHIN 5 MILES OF SHORE TONIGHT ALONG THE GRAND STRAND AND NEAR GEORGETOWN. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH OUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND THE LOCAL SWAN MODEL IS INDICATING THE SEAS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT OFF SHORE WINDS ON THURSDAY. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...POST FRONT COLD SURGE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FRI WILL DROP CLOSER TO 10 KT BY SAT MORNING AS GRADIENT. WEAK COASTAL TROF TAKING SHAPE WILL INDUCE A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. ADVISORY WORTHY SEAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DROP TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRI NIGHT AND REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAWKINS NEAR TERM...DOUGH/ARMSTRONG SHORT TERM...HAWKINS LONG TERM...III AVIATION...LACORTE  FXUS62 KILM 160408 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1045 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BRINGING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A SECOND FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...SPORADIC ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF PATCHY OR AREAS OF SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THIS A RESULT OF SFC WINDS BOUNCING FROM 180-210 DEGREES. AS WINDS BECOME DOMINANT 210-230 DEGREE DIRECTION AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR SEA FOG MOVING ONSHORE WILL DIMINISH GREATLY. SCATTERED -SHRA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING NE...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL WINDSPEED CONVERGENCE FROM 15-25 KT S-SW WINDS OFFSHORE QUICKLY DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS...AS WELL AS WEAK WIND DIRECTION CONVERGENCE FROM SW INLAND TO S-SSW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AS FOR SEA FOG...THE LATEST AVAILABLE SST MAP OF THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST USING AVHRR DATA FOR THE 2 DAYS ENDING ON NOV 14TH...INDICATED 2 PATCHES OF NOTEWORTHY COOL SHELF WATERS OFF THE CAROLINAS...WITH 1 PATCH BETWEEN SURF CITY AND CAPE FEAR...TO NEARLY OUT TO THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...41013. AND THE SECOND PATCH LYING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN NORTH MYRTLE BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THIS 2ND ONE NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THE 1ST. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ADVECTING ACROSS THESE COOLER SHELF WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO WED...SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST BORDERING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLL SHELF WATER AREAS. A FEW LOCAL SURF CAMS HAVE ALSO SHOWCASED THE EXISTENCE OF THE SEA FOG AT TIMES. PREVIOUS MIN FORECAST FOR TONIGHT STILL LOOKING AOK WITH ANY TWEAKS NEEDED WOULD BE ON THE ORDER TO INCREASE LOWS CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL PROVIDE GOOD SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS THE LOW LEVEL LIFTING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY THE MODEL TO BE VERY LOW AND THE LOW-LEVEL 0 TO 2.5 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE REACHES ALMOST 40 KNOTS. THE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY MAXIMUM APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS MODEL RUN AND IS RUNNING AHEAD OF THE MODEL CONVECTION...SO CONFIDENCE ON ISOLATED TORNADOES IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRI BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SAT WITH LOW LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 3K FT OR SO. CURRENT FORECAST IS DEVOID OF PRECIP HOWEVER THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LATER IN THE DAY SAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PATCHY OF RAIN. WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH QPF SHOULD SOMETHING DEVELOP WITH COASTAL NC THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE SOMETHING. AT THE VERY LEAST ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SAT INTO SUN. COASTAL TROUGH DISSIPATES SUN AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUN AND MON DRY MID LEVELS AND WEAK CAP...A RESULT OF BUILDING WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE...WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED NORTH OF THE AREA TUE WILL TRY AND DROP SOUTH DURING THE DAY. IF FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DO NOT THINK IT WOULD HAVE MUCH PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE FRONT IS STRETCHED OUT WITH THE DYNAMICS WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM WELL BELOW CLIMO AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO ABOVE CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRANSITION FROM BELOW CLIMO TO ABOVE WILL BE QUICK...BY SAT NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE CLIMO. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 00Z...EXPECT CONTINUED AREAS OF PATCHY SEA FOG TO ADVECT ONSHORE AT KCRE/KMYR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...REDUCING VSBYS OFF AND ON TO MVFR BEFORE FLOW FROM VEERING WINDS STEER FOG AWAY FROM TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK. FOR KILM...CURRENT RADAR DEPICTS SOME -SHRA OFFSHORE. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER TO WRAP AROUND TO TERMINAL...AND POSSIBLY THE TWO OTHER COASTAL SITES...THUS HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH ROUGHLY 06Z WITH SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-8KTS. WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...ANTICIPATE CIGS AND VSBYS AT ALL SITES DETERIORATE AFTER 07Z DUE TO ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS. FOR NOW...ANTICIPATE LIFR/IFR CIGS...AND IFR/MVFR FOG THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOON AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR...WITH TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATING GUSTY WINDS 18-22KTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SOUTH- SOUTHWEST. TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD INTO THE NEXT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS ANTICIPATED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD CREATE ISOLATED TSRA AND IFR. EXPECT VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FOR POTENTIAL IFR FOG/STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1055 PM TUESDAY...THE SEA FOG THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ILM WATERS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY/AREAS OF SEA FOG ACROSS THE ILM WATERS THROUGH OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE SST MAP OF THE ILM WATERS USING AVHRR DATA FOR THE 2 DAYS ENDING ON NOV 14TH...2 NOTEWORTHY PATCHES OF COOLER SHELF WATERS IN THE LOW 60S WERE SHOWN. ONE PATCH BETWEEN SURF CITY AND CAPE FEAR...AND OUT TO NEARLY THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...41013. AND THE 2ND PATCH...LYING ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN NORTH MYRTLE BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THIS 2ND ONE NOT NEARLY AS PRONOUNCED AS THE 1ST. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THESE COOLER SHELF WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO WED. THIS WILL RESULT WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE ILM WATERS...PARTICULAR ACROSS THOSE COOL WATERS. A FEW LOCAL SURF CAMS HAVE SHOWCASED THE EXISTENCE OF THE SEA FOG. AS SYNOPTIC WINDS SLOWLY VEER FROM 190-230 OVERNIGHT INTO WED...THE THREAT FOR SEA FOG WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OR ATLEAST KEEP THE FOG FROM ADVECTING ONSHORE/INLAND. WILL INDICATE VSBY REDUCING TO 1NM OR LESS. IF ANY RECEIVED REPORTS AND/OR OBS INDICATE 1/2 NM OR LESS VSBYS...WILL THEN UPDATE AND ADVERTISE DENSE FOG. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG. HAVE MAINTAINED THE WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THE LATEST HRRR KEEPING WINDS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE. WHICH IN TURN...PRODUCING SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH OUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND THE LOCAL SWAN MODEL IS INDICATING THE SEAS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT OFF SHORE WINDS ON THURSDAY. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...POST FRONT COLD SURGE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FRI WILL DROP CLOSER TO 10 KT BY SAT MORNING AS GRADIENT. WEAK COASTAL TROF TAKING SHAPE WILL INDUCE A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. ADVISORY WORTHY SEAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DROP TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRI NIGHT AND REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAWKINS NEAR TERM...DOUGH SHORT TERM...HAWKINS LONG TERM...III AVIATION...LACORTE