FXUS64 KCRP 180337 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 937 PM CST THU FEB 17 2011 .DISCUSSION...11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY/METARS/COAST GUARD REPORTS REVEAL RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS OVER THE ERN CWFA/ALONG THE COAST...WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE. EXPECT A MIXTURE OF STRATUS/PATCHY-AREAS FOG AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. AVHRR SST PATTERN REVEALS COOLER VALUES OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS/WARMER OFFSHORE. FURTHER...NAM 0-1KM LAPSE RATES LOWER NEARSHORE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT 10-15KT WIND NEARSHORE/15KT OFFSHORE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST THU FEB 17 2011/ DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION. AVIATION...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE HOWEVER REMAIN A STEADY 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH THE HELP OF A 30 KNOT LLJ FORMING ALONG THE COAST. DECOUPLING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TAF SITES...WITH MOMENTS OF IFR/LIFR AROUND KVCT..KALI AND KCRP. THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE BY LATE MORNING...AS WELL AS WITH CEILINGS LIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST. TAF SITE KVCT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST THU FEB 17 2011/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...STRATUS CONTINUES TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WITH ONLY THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BEND STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. WITH A 35 KNOT LLJ ALONG THE COASTAL BEND AND A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BAYS AND LAND...BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE CONTINUING TO OCCUR ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE LLJ WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING VERY LOW STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE LLJ A LITTLE STRONGER ALONG THE COAST THAN EARLIER RUNS...SO MAY BE LOW STRATUS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND WITH AREAS OF FOG INLAND. CANNOT RULE OUT DENSE FOG FORMING INLAND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. NAM VISIBILITY IS SHOWING AREAS OF SEA FOG POSSIBILITY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT STARTING WITH THE NORTHERN BAYS. IF THIS DEVELOPS...FOG MAY PUSH INLAND OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE HILL COUNTRY ON FRIDAY. IT IS NOT GOING TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER AS THE INVERSION REMAINS VERY STRONG ABOVE 850-900MB. MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT NOT EVEN WORTH MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST...SO LEFT SILENT 10 POPS. 850MB TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY...SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. OTHER THAN THAT IT WILL BE MORE OF THE SAME WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S. FRIDAY NIGHT...AREAS TO WIDESPREAD SEA FOG IS EXPECTED FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. THIS IS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...NOT MUCH CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FROM LAST FEW DAYS. THE BREEZY AND WARM SPRING-LIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS A WRN US TROUGH BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS WILL KEEP THE MODERATE SSE FLOW GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/ STRONGER WINDS LATE SAT AND ESP SUN AS ONE TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS ENE ACROSS THE PLAINS ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER S/WV THAT RE-CARVES THE WRN US TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST TROUGH IS NOW SHOWN TO HOLD ITS STRENGTH A LITTLE BETTER WHILE EJECTING ENE AND BECAUSE OF THIS MODELS NOW SHOW THE ASSOC FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION AND STALLING IT OFFSHORE...AS OPPOSED TO OVER S TX IN PREVIOUS RUNS. EITHER WAY...THIS LOOKS LIKE A RATHER WEAK FRONT WITH ONLY MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPS WHICH FALL ONLY TO NEAR CLIMO. WILL CONTINUE W/ THE SLT CHC POPS W/ THE FROPA W/ LACK OF MOISTURE DEPTH AND INSTABILITY BEING THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR SIG PRECIP. THE BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS A WARM FRONT ON WED...LEADING TO MORE LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SHRA. THE MOST INTERESTING THING SHOWN IN MED RANGE MODELS IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH. THERE ARE PLENTY OF -20S TO -40S IN WRN CANADA AND ALASKA RIGHT NOW...SO WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED JET DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF DRIVE THIS AIRMASS SOUTH AS LAST FEW RUNS HAVE SHOWN (WHICH 1050 MB HIGH CENTER AT SFC). PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS UNFOLD. MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS UNTIL 01Z. WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST WEAKENS. AREAS OF SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT STARTING WITH THE NORTHERN BAYS...WITH PATCHY SEA FOG IN THE SOUTHERN BAYS. AREAS TO WIDESPREAD SEA FOG IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS WEAKEN AND TURN MORE EASTERLY. FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. IT IS BREEZY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE. HOWEVER...RH VALUES REMAIN 40-60 PERCENT. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG ON FRIDAY AND RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER. HOWEVER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY STILL EXIST ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 80S. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 63 74 62 76 61 / 10 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 62 76 58 75 59 / 10 10 10 10 10 LAREDO 66 86 65 85 63 / 10 10 10 10 10 ALICE 62 81 61 80 61 / 10 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 63 70 62 71 62 / 10 10 10 10 10 COTULLA 62 82 59 80 59 / 10 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 62 80 62 79 61 / 10 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 64 70 65 65 63 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM