FXUS64 KBRO 191427 AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 827 AM CST THU DEC 19 2013 .DISCUSSION...DATA FROM A TEXAS AUTOMATED BUOY SYSTEM ABOUT 8 MILES OFFSHORE SHOWS WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 8 KNOTS THIS MORNING. A 1148Z AVHRR SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE PRODUCT SHOWS ABOUT A 10 TO 15 DEGREE F DIFFERENCE IN WATER TEMPERATURE OVER THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. NOAA BUOY 42020 HAS BEEN RIDING CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE BEING MET THERE. THE LAGUNA MADRE IS MORE CHALLENGING...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH HEATING FROM THE LAND TO ALLOW 20KT SUSTAINED WINDS TO BE A HIGH ENOUGH POSSIBILITY TO KEEP THE ADVISORY IN PLACE GIVEN THE STRONG AND BUILDING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT. SO HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY FOR NEARSHORE WATERS AND KEPT IT...AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS WAS. /68-JGG/ && .MARINE...COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AID KEEPING WIND SPEEDS DOWN OVER THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. MARINERS GOING EAST HOWEVER WILL EXPERIENCE A SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS AS THEY GET INTO WARMER WATERS AROUND 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL ALSO BUILD TO THE POINT SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. /68-JGG/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST THU DEC 19 2013/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION TEMPO GROUP FOR POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH 15Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT THEN SCATTER OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE BY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE LATEST BRO VAD WIND PROFILE ALONG WITH THE BRO UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOW WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET. WILL MENTION NON CONVECTIVE LLWS FOR ALL TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS DECREASE A LITTLE THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBLE RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST THU DEC 19 2013/ SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...LATEST BRO VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES 35 KNOTS OF WINDS AT 1000 FEET COURTESY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL INTERACT WITH THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING AND BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-69E/HWY 77 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LATEST MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT WINDS COULD BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ON FRIDAY THAN TODAY. HOWEVER... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE PERSIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AT MANY LOCATIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW BUT A STREAMER SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE COAST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE WIND AND A COLD FRONT. EXAMINATION OF MAV AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SATURDAY. MET GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A LATER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH AN EARLIER PASSAGE INDICATED BY THE MAV AND MOS GUIDANCE. COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY EVENING...WITH STILL THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS...LIKELY AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ONE ISSUE TO KEEP IN MIND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS WHETHER OR NOT SEA FOG...EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPACTS THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF CAMERON...WILLACY...AND KENEDY COUNTY...ESPECIALLY ALL OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED AT THAT TIME DEPENDING ON HOW FAR INLAND THE FOG MOVES IF IT INDEED DEVELOPS. DRIER AIR SURGING INTO THE BRO CWFA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...AIDED BY THE PASSAGE OF A 500 MB TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF NEXT WEEK. MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WILL BE THE WINDS. THE FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY WITH COOL SHELF WATERS WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE MORE COOLER AND STABLE GULF WATERS. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS MAY REMAIN AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUOY 42020 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 19 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET. WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GULF WATERS NOW THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO...SEA FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE THIS MORNING INDICATE LIGHT WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY BUT SHOULD BE A FEW KNOTS LESS THAN TODAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE COULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TEXAS...RESPECTIVELY... WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WARM AND MOIST WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PASSING OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF SEA FOG ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...AND COLDER AIR SURGING OFFSHORE AFTERWARDS...WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO IMPROVE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY .BUT SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION THEN DUE TO SLIGHTLY ROUGH SEAS. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ170-175. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ130-132-135. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 68/58  FXUS64 KBRO 192036 AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 236 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013 .SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING IN EARNEST TODAY AHEAD OF A DIGGING SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW. RAPID SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THAT LOW THAT IS LEADING TO STRONG LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA MADRE AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS. WINDS ARE RESPONDING IN KIND WITH SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS PUSHING 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE PUSHING INTO THE LOW 80S THIS HOUR WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES. COLD WATER...A RESULT OF UPWELLING WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE COAST IS KEEPING WINDS DOWN IN THE NEARSHORE...CONFIRMED BY A TABS BUOY ABOUT 12 NM OFFSHORE AND SUGGESTED BY A 1638Z ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWS ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ABOUT 20 NM OFFSHORE BUT LIGHTER WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST. TCOON AND ASOS SITES SHOW ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON THE LAGUNA MADRE WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAND ARE LEADING TO BETTER MIXING. THIS TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL IS SHOWN NICELY IN THE 1148Z PASS OF THE AVHRR SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE PRODUCT. TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FLORIDA WILL GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. CONFIDENT WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 8 TO 15 MPH RANGE OVER LAND ALL NIGHT WITH THAT SETUP. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS WHETHER THE OFFSHORE ZONES WILL RETURN TO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT. NAM12 AND HIGH RES ARW/NMM KEEP THE WINDS IN THE 17 KNOT RANGE WHILE THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW STRONGER WIND FIELDS OVER THE WHOLE COASTAL WATERS WHICH COULD BE CORRECTED FOR THE MARINE LAYER NEARSHORE. WITH THE LOCAL GRADIENT CREATED BY THE NEARSHORE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL AND A GUT FEELING THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MODERATED BY INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND PERSISTENT WIND. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS SEA FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT IT DOES NOT AT THIS POINT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT...IE DENSE FOG. FRIDAY...TODAY HAS BEEN JUST A LITTLE WINDIER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED AND THAT GIVES ME SOME PAUSE FOR TOMORROW. WITH LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO I BELIEVE THE POSSIBLITY OF WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT THE WESTERN LAGUNA MADRE TO HIGHWAY 281 IS INCREASING. WILL NOT HOIST FROM THIS SHIFT BUT DID BUMP THE WIND FORECASTS UP TO AT OR NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS A DECENT CHUNK OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH INCREASING THICNKESS VALUES AND SUNSHINE FILTERED BY SCATTERED CUMULUS. THE BEST SURGE OF 65 TO 70 DEGREE DEWPOINT AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN MARINE ZONES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK AND CONTINUED THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST AND THE HWO AS THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG WILL START PICKING UP ALONG THE COAST WHEN THIS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR RIDES OVER THE COLD NEARSHORE WATERS. FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT APPROACHES ITS PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NAM/GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE SHOW 45 TO 50KT WIND SPEEDS AT 925 AND 850MB OVERNIGHT BUT A STRONG INVERSION...CAUSED BY TWO DAYS OF DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...KEEPS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEPARATED FROM THE STRONGEST WINDS. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES A STEADY OVERNIGHT WIND IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS NOT REACHING THE FULL POTENTIAL A 50KT 925MB JET WOULD ASSUME. MARINE WINDS MAY MIX A LITTLE BETTER...AND WITH THE INTENSITY OF THE GRADIENT THE NEARSHORE WATERS WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING MORE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES TO PUMP WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR IN OVER THE COOL NEARSHORE WATERS. /68-JGG/ .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAYAND THEN SLIDES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER TX AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A LLJ MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY WITH 30 TO 40 KT WINDS...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG INVERSION...SO DO NOT EXPECT A WHOLE LOT OF MIXING DOWN OF THE WINDS. HAVE MAINTAINED BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY BY SATURDAY EVENING. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...BUT FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE SW...KEEPING THE AREA WELL CAPPED. WITH THE CAP IN PLACE...HAVE ELECTED TO NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AND HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COLDER AIR WONT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER A SECONDARY NORTHERLY SURGE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL STILL REACH INTO THE 70S...BUT AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TAP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND 40S ELSEWHERE. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE AN ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE. && .MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS FROM 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE LAGUNA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. FRIDAY NIGHT STRONG WINDS MAY OVERSPREAD ALL OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY DUE TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND INCREASED SEAS DUE TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TEXAS WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURGE OF STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL AFTERWARDS...WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODIC SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS IMPROVE ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ170-175. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ130-132-135. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 68/58/MARTINEZ  FXUS64 KBRO 151957 AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 157 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...ADVECTION FOG PERSISTS AT SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND THE IMMEDIATE NEAR SHORE...ELSEWHERE THE FOG BANK HAS LIFTED TO LOW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO THE MID TO LOW 70S AND A SOUTHEAST BREEZE HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AS LEE TROUGHING ESTABLISHES OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS/EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH. DEW POINT VALUES ARE ON THE WAY UP NOW INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. REST OF THE AFTERNOON...VERY NICE AFTERNOON WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LIGHT BREEZE. WILL FEEL MORE HUMID THAN WE HAVE BEEN USED TO AS OF LATE AND MECHANICAL MIXING PROBABLY WILL NOT HELP THAT MUCH AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO INCREASE WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE LOWEST 100MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON THE EASTERN HALF OF PADRE ISLAND AND ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A 1042Z SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS FROM AN AVHRR PASS SHOWS GULF WATER TEMPERATURES TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 66 TO 69 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WITH A LAYER OF 55 TO 58 DEGREE WATER CLOSER TO THE COAST. WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF OUR WINDS TONIGHT OVER THIS COOLER WATER AND OUR CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH FAIRLY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH HEIGHT BELIEVE THE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF ADVECTION FOG IS LIKELY. TEMPS WILL BE RESISTANT TO FALL QUICKLY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT WINDS BUT SUSPECT DEW POINT VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE THAT WAS MIXED UPWARDS THROUGH THE DAY SETTLES BACK TOWARDS THE SURFACE AND ADVECTS IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR INLAND THIS FOG WILL WORK BUT ADDED PATCHY FOG AREA WIDE AND DENSE FOG TO THE NEAR SHORE WATER AND AREAS AROUND THE LOWER LAGUNA MADRE. SUNDAY...EXPECTING WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE STRONGER. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM WITH ANOTHER HALF STEP OR SO OF HUMIDITY IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTIER WITH SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FOG MAY STILL HOLD IN SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT...WARM AND BREEZY WITH A SLIGHT SLACKING OF WIND SPEED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT. FOG MAY STILL BE AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY...LIMITING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM PLAYING A BIG ROLE FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF STAY TOGETHER MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH DIFFERENCES BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT AFTER THIS LONG TERM FORECAST. FOR NOW...DID NOT TAMPER WITH THE INHERITED PACKAGE TOO MUCH. THE ZONAL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WARM TEMPS AND AN ALMOST SUMMER LIKE WIND REGIME...WITH MODERATE OR BETTER SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. WITH PLAINS PRESSURE DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN SYSTEMS TRACKING WEST TO EAST...WINDS WILL EXHIBIT SOME VARIATION. BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY... AND BREEZY TO WINDY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON WEDNESDAY THE LOCAL WIND MACHINE WILL CLICK ANOTHER NOTCH HIGHER WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE CAMERON WILLACY EASTERN HIDALGO TRIFECTA AREAS... AS ANOTHER ONE OF THOSE CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVES WEST TO EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER...AND DEEPENS PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH INTO EAST TEXAS AGAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT AS BEFORE LITTLE IMPACT WILL BE REALIZED IN THE RGV. TO SUMMARIZE... IT WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONAL WEATHER WITH MORE WIND AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY IN THE WEEK BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TYPICAL CU AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE WINDIEST DAY LOOKS TO BE MID WEEK...BUT A WIND ADVISORY IS NOT GUARANTEED JUST YET. && .MARINE... NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST EAST OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXPECTED. PREVAILING MARINE CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF FOG WILL BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE LAGUNA MADRE ON SUNDAY WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS ON THE GULF THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER WILL BE SPARSE DURING THE LONG TERM...AS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OR LOW END ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY...BUILDING SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET AS WELL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING AHEAD OF A PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS WILL TRANSIT WEST TO EAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH LITTLE INTERRUPTION TO THE MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING PLAINS LOW PRESSURE...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...AND THEN STRONGER WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE GULF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 62 79 64 79 / 0 0 0 0 BROWNSVILLE 61 80 64 83 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 62 82 62 83 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 63 85 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 60 87 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 65 72 65 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 68/54/MARTINEZ  FXUS64 KBRO 190937 AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 337 AM CST WED FEB 19 2014 .SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...FOG AND OVC STRATUS WILL SCATTER/MIX OUT BY MID THIS MORNING AS THE WIND MACHINE STARTS CRANKING NEAR THE COAST. BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MID MORNING AS PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL OVER THE PLAINS DUE TO AN INCUBATING STORM SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPS LOCALLY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE UPPER VALLEY. IN FACT...WINDS WILL STAY MDT TO BREEZY TONIGHT...AND AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE PROPPED UP BY THE UNDERLYING DEW POINTS...IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE A FRONT AND HIGHER PRESSURE MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS ENROUTE TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV. WINDS MAY SHIFT TO NORTH IN THE UPPER VALLEY AND RANCH LANDS BY THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE MEAGER...WITH WIND AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BEING THE MAIN ISSUES. CLOUDS WILL WAX AND WANE ON THE WIND AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX... BUT WILL...IN GENERAL...BE MORE PROBLEMATIC ALONG THE COAST...AS WILL OVERNIGHT FOG. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MARCH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY NORTH WINDS OVER LAND AND STRONG NORTH WINDS OVER THE GULF AND LAGUNA MADRE APPEAR TO BE THE FIRST NOTABLE IMPACT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 03-06Z TIMEFRAME FROPA FOR THE VALLEY. NUDGED IT A LITTLE FASTER THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS THOUGH WITH STRONG UPPER SUPPORT BEHIND THE FRONT AND A POWERFUL PARENT TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AT THE TIME OF FROPA HERE. CONSIDERED A GALE WATCH FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS GIVEN THE STRONG PROJECTED COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A 1024MB HIGH PILES IN BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE TOO MARGINAL FOR SUCH A LONG LEAD TIME WATCH WITH COLD SSTS. AN 03Z AVHRR SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS SHOWED 55 DEGREE NEARSHORE WATER...65 DEGREE OFFSHORE WATER...AND ABOUT A 65 TO 68 DEGREE LAGUNA MADRE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS GUSTS TO ABOUT 37KTS ON THE OFFSHORE WATER...25 TO 28 KNOTS ON THE NEARSHORE AND 28 TO 32 KNOTS ON THE LAGUNA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THE SOURCE AIRMASS FOR THIS SYSTEM IS IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...SO A MAJOR PLUNGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW WHAT IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY SHOULD SEE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD IN A WAY THAT WILL GIVE US MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW. ECMWF IS A LITTLE BREEZIER THAN THE GFS BUT WENT WITH THE MORE MODERATE GFS GIVEN THE FAIRLY WEAK EXISTING GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP QUITE A BIT THOUGH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 OUT WEST. ANOTHER 6 TO 8 DEGREE BUMP IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD FOLLOW WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST OVERNIGHT PERIODS CLEARING IN THE MORNING BEFORE CUMULUS CLOUDS REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DEPTH IS TOO LIMITED FOR ANY PRECIP MENTION. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY COLUMN MOISTURE GETS A LITTLE BIT DEEPER AS 850MB LAYER WINDS STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH. ADDED A LITTLE BIT OF COASTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY BUT LIMITED THE POP TO THE MORNING OVER LAND AS MID LEVEL CAPPING SHOULD KEEP DEEPER SHOWERS AT BAY. MORE PERSISTENT ACTIVITY LOOKS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF BUT COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE PRETTY LIMITED. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BUT MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS PRETTY ZONAL BY THAT TIME AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT MAY STALL SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE HELP OF A COLD CONTINENTAL AIRMASS BEHIND IT BUT ITS STILL GOT ITS WORK CUT OUT TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. WITH THE MOISTURE POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AT LEAST SOME WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE ZONAL FLOW ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. && .MARINE... NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER BOUT OF MARINE FOG IS PLAGUING THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND LAGUNA MADRE THIS MORNING...WHILE ALSO SOCKING IN THE TOWN OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS MORNING...MIXING OUT THE FOG...BUT PERSISTENCE THROUGH DAWN IS EXPECTED. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE GULF TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY EVENING. AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BECOME ROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THEY SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EAST WHILE BECOMING MORE MODERATE SATURDAY AND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY. LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ONCE SEAS DIMINISH BEHIND THE THURSDAY NIGHT FRONT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 67 80 61 / 10 10 10 10 BROWNSVILLE 77 67 82 61 / 10 10 10 10 HARLINGEN 80 67 85 58 / 10 10 10 0 MCALLEN 84 67 88 55 / 10 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 87 66 89 53 / 0 10 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 67 76 62 / 10 10 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ130-132- 135-150-155. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV SHORT TERM...54 LONG TERM...68-GIBBS UPPER AIR/GRAPHICAST...CAMPBELL  FXUS64 KBRO 160843 AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 343 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE BASE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXHIBITING SOME SPIN OVER WEST TEXAS...WITH JET CIRRUS EVIDENT MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST TEXAS...MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE CWA. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY ABOUT MID DAY...WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. HIGH TEMPS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY TODAY...BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE UPPER VALLEY...NEAR 70. THE MAIN IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG NEAR THE COAST...AND SOME WIND...ALTHOUGH NO ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BUT NOT OVERLY SO. THUS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. SEE THE SEPARATE PARAGRAPH ON FIRE WEATHER BELOW. A SECOND PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF THE PLAINS TODAY TO HELP REINFORCE THE ONE ALREADY OVER WEST TEXAS. THE ENHANCED TROUGH WILL EXTEND BACK OVER SOUTH TEXAS BY TONIGHT AND ITS BASE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT AS WELL. ISLD SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OR OVER THE MARINE AREAS AS THIS HAPPENS BUT DEEP DRY AND COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE A STABLE THERMO DYNAMIC PROFILE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...A FULL 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AS PWAT AND COLUMN MOISTURE PLUMMETS. PWAT BY MONDAY SHOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS AND IT WILL BE A SPRING LIKE DAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV WITH DAY TIME HIGH TEMPS STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...FROM THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S BUT UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS. IN GENERAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY...WHILE UPSTREAM RIDGING MOVES IN BEHIND AN EXITING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. RAINFALL CHANCES...WHICH ARE ON THE LOW SIDE AND ARE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...WILL VANISH QUICKLY LATER TODAY. .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND A MARKED INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 850/700MB ONLY ADDING TO THE DRYING AND WARMTH OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. RIGHT AT THE SURFACE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE PATTERN PRETTY FAVORABLE FOR A HOT DAY AND SHOW THAT IN THE GRIDS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE VALLEY AND 90 OR HIGHER IN ZAPATA COUNTY. WINDS MAY GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AMID A DEEP MIXING LAYER. LOW LAYER RIDGING GENERALLY INTENSIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS PRESENTING THE AREA WITH A MORE EASTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 03Z AVHRR SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE PRODUCT SHOWS THE SST GRADIENT IS NOT QUITE AS PRONOUNCED TODAY AS IT HAS BEEN IN THE LAST FEW...BUT STRONG NORTH WINDS PRODUCED BY THE SUNDAY COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY INCREASE UPWELLING TIGHTEN THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ADVECTION FOG ENVIRONMENT AND HAVE ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY MORNING IN COASTAL LOCATIONS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY MODERATE OUR TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. BY THURSDAY 300/500MB RIDGING IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY EVIDENT TO OUR SOUTH CENTERED AROUND 17N WHILE OVER THE CONUS MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH SUBTLE LOCAL JET MAXIMUMS CONTINUE. BROAD LOWER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS ALLOWS OUR LOW LAYER THICKNESS VALUES TO INCREASE AND CONTINUES A MODERATE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. ECMWF STILL PAINTS A WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY BUT IT REMAINS WEAKER STILL...AND HAS LITTLE SUPPORT IN THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PICTURE. GFS ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GFS KEEP THE FRONT FROM BEING A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER. CONTINUED THAT IDEA IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH WE DO GET AN INCREASE IN OUR DEPTH OF MOISTURE ON THURSDAY WITH 850MB RH VALUES CLIMBING. WE WILL HAVE PERSISTENT 750MB CAPPING THAT WILL KEEP DEEPER SHOWERS/STORMS FROM DEVELOPING BUT CONTINUED THE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR NOW. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE MODERATING EFFECTS OF THE ONSHORE BREEZE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE AS OUR LOWER LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES DO THE SAME. LOW LEVEL RH VALUES FALL AND WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ECMWF/GFS SHOWING AROUND A 590DM RIDGE A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO OUR SOUTH WITH A ZONAL JET PATTERN TO OUR NORTH. 18Z GFS MENTIONED A FRONT SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH 00Z ECMWF HOLDING ON TO A HINT OF IT BUT FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT IN THE ADVERTISED PATTERN WE WILL STAY FRONT FREE THROUGH SUNDAY AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. /68-JGG/ && .MARINE... TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...DENSE FOG IS IN PLACE ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND SHOULD REMAIN SO UNTIL MID MORNING AS WINDS STAY NEAR CALM. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM MID TO LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN WHEN ANY REMAINING FOG WILL BE SWEPT AWAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN FAR OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH MUCH IMPROVED WEATHER TO FOLLOW ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY STILL PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING AND BECOME STRONG AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE GULF OF MEXICO AND DURING THE DAYTIME ON THE LAGUNA MADRE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MORE MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY MODERATE SEAS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...WHILE WIND AND FUEL DRYNESS CRITERIA WILL BE CRITICAL TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE...THAT IS NOT MEETING...THE CRITERIA REQUIRED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. NONETHELESS...FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL WITH AN ELEVATED THREAT OF ENHANCED WILDFIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 52 66 51 / 20 10 10 0 BROWNSVILLE 76 52 67 50 / 20 10 10 0 HARLINGEN 76 50 67 48 / 20 10 10 0 MCALLEN 75 50 70 48 / 20 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 49 71 48 / 30 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 71 54 65 53 / 20 10 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ256-257. GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ130-132- 135-150-155. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ170. GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ170. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ150-155-175. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 54/68  FXUS64 KBRO 040922 AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 422 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 .SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING THAT EXTENDS UPWARD INTO RIDGING OVER THE PANHANDLES AND BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS VERY LOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ACROSS THE REGION AND APPEARS TO BE THAT WAY FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO OUR SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND AVHRR/SSMI ESTIMATES. TEMPS ARE DROPPING ABOUT AS FORECAST INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND WITH A STRONG RADIATION INVERSION DECOUPLING THE SURFACE. TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOW RH AND CLEAR SKIES. A SEABREEZE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ABLE TO SET UP AND MODERATE MAX TEMPERATURES A BIT ALONG THE COAST AS WILL THE SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY OF THE FLOW. GIVEN THE VERY DRY STATE OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AIRMASS AM NOT EXPECTING A MAJOR INCREASE IN DEWPOINT TODAY AND ANOTHER WARM AND GENERALLY PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST BREEZE. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE UP A FEW DEGREES FROM TONIGHT AND THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WHICH MAY REQUIRE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE AND SURFACE WINDS DROP BUT RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS AND LIGHT WINDS WITH FEW CLOUDS REMAINS THE FORECAST. MONDAY...TROUGHING WILL BEGIN DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US ON MONDAY AND RIDGING OVER THE GULF WILL INTENSIFY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE NOTABLE INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS WITH SPEEDS LIKELY AROUND 18 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE UP WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS SHOULD SET UP IN THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 90S IN THE WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND TRAJECTORY LIKELY MODERATING THE COAST BUT LEAVING THE WESTERN ZONES OPEN TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER DEEP SOUTH TX MON NIGHT INTO TUES. A MAJOR 500 MB WEST COAST TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE DESERT SW ON TUES. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL THEN OPEN UP AND WILL PUSH FURTHER NORTHEASTWARDS WED AND THURS EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SECOND TROUGH AXIS WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THIS ONE AND WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FRI AND EARLY SAT EXITING THE REGION LATE SAT. THE GFS SHOWS MUCH MORE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER DEEP SOUTH TX AHEAD OF THESE TROUGHS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A DECIDEDLY DRIER SOLUTION THROUGH DAY 7. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION WITH GENERALLY 20 TO 30 % POPS IN PLACE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HAS BEEN PRETTY STABLE. FOR TEMPS...THE LOW LEVEL WAA WILL BE PERSISTENT AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST TROUGHS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW THE TEMPS TO WARM UP STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD DESPITE THE INCREASING CLD COVER AND POPS WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGHS. WILL GO CLOSER TO THE WARMER ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE VERSUS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MEX NUMBERS. && .MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE TODAY DUE TO INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WINDS ON THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD BE MORE MODERATE WITH MODERATE SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT ON THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON THE LAGUNA MADRE MONDAY DUE TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS. SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURS...THE SURFACE PGF WILL BE STEADILY STRENGTHENING AS THE 500 MB TROFFING DIGS CLOSER TO THE TX COASTLINE LATER THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE MARINE CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SCEC/SCA LEVELS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS. && .FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 35 PERCENT AND 20 FOOT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 12 TO 16 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE UP SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS UP SLIGHTLY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 66 85 70 / 0 0 0 0 BROWNSVILLE 88 64 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 91 62 89 68 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 93 65 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 65 94 67 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 68 82 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM...60 GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...CAMPBELL