FXUS61 KALY 040939 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 435 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE WITH US TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF ALBANY INTO ALBANY ITSELF...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 435 AM EST...THERE WERE TWO MAIN AREAS OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ONE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF ONTARIO WORKING INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND CATSKILLS. DBZ VALUES WITH THESE WERE GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 RANGE...PROBABLY PRODUCING LOCAL DUSTINGS. THE OTHER MAIN BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS...APPEAR TO BE THE RESULT OF LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE OFF CHAMPLAIN BEING DRIVEN SOUTHWARD AND THEN FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPSLOPE WIND (NORTHWEST WIND AGAIN THE TACONICS). THIS BAND WAS FROM ABOUT MECHANICVILLE SOUTHEAST TO POESTENKILL. DBZ VALUES WERE HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND BAND...CLOSER TO 25. WE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONCERNING THIS BAND WHICH LOOKS TO BE PRODUCING EXTREMELY LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES OF ABOUT 3/4 INCH PER HOUR IN THIS AREA. MODELS WERE NOT HANDLING THIS BAND WELL AT ALL. OTHER FLURRIES WERE NOTED IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AN ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUED TO SLIP SOUTH OF I-90... AND WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND EVEN AROUND ZERO WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY BY SUNRISE. LOCALLY LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 20...LOWER TO MID 20S FURTHER SOUTH... WHERE AT THIS TIME WERE STILL JUST ABOVE FREEZING. AS OF THIS WRITING WE HAVE NOT OFFICIALLY DROPPED BELOW 20 THIS WINTER SEASON...AGAIN MAKING IT THE LATEST EVER TO DO SO. BY SUNRISE...WE PROJECT A LOW JUST BELOW 20 DEGREES AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. WIND CHILLS WILL REACH -10 OR A LITTLE LOWER IN THE ADIRONDACKS BUT REMAIN JUST ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. LATER TODAY...AS THE FLOW BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC AND THE AIR DRIER...ALL SNOW ACTIVITY WILL END LEAVING US WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. DESPITE THIS HOWEVER...AS H850 TEMPERATURES PLUNGE TO AROUND -20C...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE IF ANY TODAY...HOLDING IN THE TEENS JUST NORTH OF ALBANY... AROUND 20 IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...MID 20S FURTHER SOUTH. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO ADD A BITE TO THE CHILL. THIS LOOKS TO BE FIRST DAY WHERE OFFICIALLY THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL NOT BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS WINTER SEASON AT ALBANY. THIS WILL MAKE IT THE LATEST SUCH OCCURRENCE EVER...EASILY BREAKING THE OLD RECORD FOR THE LATEST FREEZING DAY... WHICH WAS CHRISTMAS DAY 2012. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE DRY BUT BECOMING FRIGID. A BREEZE IN THE EVENING LOOKS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT YIELDING TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. AREAS THAT WILL SEE A SNOW PACK OVER AN INCH LOOK TO GET CLOSE TO OR EVEN A BIT BELOW ZERO. AREAS FOR THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS. WITH THE DIMINISHING WIND IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW AS IF MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE WIND CHILLS REACHING WIND ADVISORY LEVELS BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. THIS WILL BE BY FAR THE COLDEST READINGS OF THE WINTER THUS FAR ...THE COLDEST SINCE MARCH 8TH OF LATE YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BEGIN TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. H850 TEMPS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO WARM PAST -10C...AND THEN WARM TO AROUND 0C BY LATER WEDNESDAY. SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK INTO THE 20S FROM ABOUT GLENS FALLS SOUTHWARD. THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT ONLY IN THE TEENS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING A WHOLE LOT... GENERALLY BACK INTO OR HOLDING IN THE TEENS... ALTHOUGH A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS WITH SNOW COVER COULD EASILY DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND A CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE OUR SOUTH. LOWS THAT NIGHT WILL BE A TRICKY TO FORECAST. IF THE WIND DIMINISHES AND THE SKY IS MOSTLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY GET AS COLD AS TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF WE PICK UP MORE IN THE WAY OF WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AND HOLD ONTO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MIGHT NOT FALL OUT OF THE 20S. RIGHT NOW...TOOK THE COMPROMISE SOLUTION WHICH YIELDS LOW TEMPERATURES TEENS IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS...NEAR 20 ALBANY SOUTHWARD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST AS WE GO FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR WEATHER. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S WITH SOME TWENTIES IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. BY FRIDAY NIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA. OVER RUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE BASED ON 00Z GFS AND 00Z/EURO USING TOP DOWN METHODOLOGY PRODUCES A MIXED BAG. INITIALLY STARTING AS SNOW AND SLEET FRIDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN EARLY SATURDAY...TO MOSTLY RAIN BY LATER SATURDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE BY LATER SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BUT MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT 00Z/GFS SOLUTION IS ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF 00Z/EURO WITH TRACK OF SURFACE WAVE. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS ALSO ABOUT 300 MILES FURTHER EAST IN THE 00Z/GFS. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR SUNDAY BECAUSE BOTH MODELS HAVE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. NORTH NORTHEASTWARD. 00Z/EURO WOULD TRACK THE LOW WEST OF INTERSTATE 81 ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY MORNING...WHILE 00Z/GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. QUITE A SPREAD. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS 20S TO LOW 30S AND HIGHS 30S TO NEAR 40. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 06Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KPSF WHERE WE CARRIED A TEMPO THROUGH 10Z FOR MVFR CIGS (AT KALB) AND BOTH VSBY AND CIG AT KPSF (DUE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS). OTHERWISE VFR CIGS LOOK TO BECOME SCATTERED LATER TODAY. A WEST WIND WILL ULTIMATELY BECOME NORTH BEFORE 12Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES AS AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY...WHICH WAS OVER KALB AS OF 06Z...WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BEFORE 12Z. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...BUT GUST OVER 20KTS AS THE ARCTIC FRONT WORKS THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS...VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED TODAY. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ASIDE FROM SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WORK WEEK. COLDER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR THE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO SLOWLY RECEDE...WITH SOME ICE FORMATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS EVEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT THIS LOOKS LIKE A POTPOURRI OF PRECIPITATION TYPES INCLUDING SOME RAIN MAINLY SOUTH. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HWJIV NEAR TERM...HWJIV SHORT TERM...HWJIV LONG TERM...SND AVIATION...HWJIV HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS