FXAK69 PAFG 132234 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 234 PM AKDT THU SEP 13 2012 .DISCUSSION... MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE UPCOMING FOR NORTHERN ALASKA...WITH THE COOL LARGELY DRY PATTERN OF THE PAST WEEK OR SO GIVING WAY TO DEEP SLY FLOW OVER THE ERN THREE-QUARTERS OF THE CWA...AS TROUGH DIGS OVER TH CHUKCHI AND BERING SEAS AND BIG RIDGE BUILDS OFF OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. AT THE SFC...996 MB LOW NEAR 78N/150W WILL DRIFT SWD TOWARD WRANGEL ISLAND AND WEAKEN. 1002MB LOW SOUTH OF ST. PAUL WILL DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN BUT NEW LOW DVLPG IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTH AND DEEPEN TO 990MB IN BRISTOL BAY SAT EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK NORTH AND DEEPEN SOME..NOT BE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF BARROW BY MON AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA SUN AN SUN NIGHT. BROAD 1010 MB LOW OVER THE SE INTERIOR WILL SHARPEN UP AS RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING STRONG RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BC RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE INITIALLY WET OVR WRN ZONES BUT IF FLOW BECOMES SELY ENOUGH WARMER AND DRIER WX WILL SPREAD WEST. NORTH SLOPE...POES IMAGERY SHOWS DECENT FRONTAL BAND ASSOSD WITH HIGH ARCTIC LOW THAT SHOULD MOVE ASHORE LATER TONIGHT BUT WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE PUSH SE OF BARROW. NOTHING MORE THAN SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. WINDS WILL TURN AROUND EAST AND INCREASE SUN AND STRONG WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED. WEST COAST...RAIN WILL SPREAD N SAT AND SUN. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A 6-12 HOUR PERIOD FOLLOWING LOW PASSAGE WITH BRISK W-SW WINDS THAT COULD PRODUCE COASTAL ISSUES. HOWEVER...THE INTERIOR...MODERATE TO STRONG CHINOOK WINDS WILL DEVELOP SAT PM THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND THEN CONTINUE THRU SUN. AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED ZONES 223...225 AND 266...AND PERHAPS WATCH/WARNINGS. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE STRONG LOW MOVING NWD ALONG OR JUST EAST OF 160W SUN AND MON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ON THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE LOW THAT COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL ISSUES. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE FEATURE. STAY TUNED. && .HYDROLOGY... NONE && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ240. && $$ RT SEP 12  FXAK69 PAFG 292047 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1147 AM AKST THU NOV 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...ONCE AGAIN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PICTURE BUT A BIT WEAK IN THE DETAILS. MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS WE SEE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH A 562 DAM CENTER LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN EXTENDS NORTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT. THE RIDGE WEAKENS SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF IT. THE RIDGE THEN SLIDES TO THE WESTERN BERING SEA SUNDAY AND STRENGTHENS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM A LOW OVER THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO TO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THEN SOUTH TO A LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. AT 850 HPA...OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE EXCEPTIONS BEING A COUPLE SHOTS OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR...AND EXPECT SOME COLD AIR TO POOL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS AND IT WORKS ITS WAY WEST TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS MINUS 32C AT 850 HPA ARE SHOWING UP OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK. SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC TO THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST AND WILL PRODUCE MAINLY FLURRIES AND PERIODIC GUSTY WINDS. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST COAST ON FRIDAY BUT IT LOSES MOST OF ITS PUNCH AS IT GETS TO THE COAST THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND DISSIPATES. SOME GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL KICK UP WINDS AROUND POINT HOPE AND MAYBE THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH. STRONG GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE TO THE GULF AND WILL NOT CREATE ANY ISSUES FOR OUR AREA. ARCTIC COAST...WEAK FRONTS CONTINUE TO SWING AROUND THE LOW IN THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO AND YOU CAN SEE STRATUS ON THE POES SAT PICTURES EXTENDING TO ABOUT 76N. EAST OF POINT LAY...FLURRIES WILL BE BROKEN UP BY PERIODS OF SNOW BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION. STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE THOUGH A LITTLE COULD BLEED THROUGH. ON THE NORTHEAST COAST SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH BUT WINDS PREDOMINATELY LESS THAN 15 KT. ON THE NORTHWEST COAST A SHOT OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. WEST COAST...PRETTY QUIET STILL. SOME STRATUS THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. A SHORT PERIOD OF SNOW OR FLURRIES AROUND POINT HOPE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT SYSTEM WILL FALL APART PRETTY RAPIDLY SO EXPECTING JUST FLURRIES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES. INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR CONTINUES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BUT OVERALL NOT CHANGE MUCH. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER EAST OF FORT YUKON AND IN THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE WAY NEXT WEEK UNLESS WE CAN GET SOME CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. INVERSIONS AROUND TOWN NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH SO CONTINUED WARMER IN THE HILLS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIDRANGE...MODELS SIGNAL A CHANGE MID WEEK AND BEYOND FROM THE PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN BLOCKED INTO BUT IT WILL NOT BE A WARMING TREND. WE WILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES IF THE DOMINANT LOW IN THE GULF MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRINGS SOME WINDS ALOFT TO THE AREA AND BREAK UP THE INVERSION...BUT AT THIS TIME THAT IS QUESTIONABLE. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245. && $$ SDB NOV 12  FXAK69 PAFG 131326 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 526 AM AKDT WED MAR 13 2013 .DISCUSSION... A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH ALOFT HAS MOVED OUT OF THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO OVERNIGHT AND HAS JUST BEGUN TO MOVE OVER ALASKA NEAR DEMARCATION POINT. IT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND WEST FAIRLY RAPIDLY TO LIE FROM ABOUT DAWSON TO MCGRATH AT 4PM AND DIFFUSE NORTH OF MCGRATH TO NEAR ANAKTUVUK PASS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST WITH A NEW LOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE WEST TO CENTER NEAR BETHEL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BY WHICH TIME ITS CIRCULATION WILL AFFECT ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. NO PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN ALASKA FROM THIS THING...AND NOT EVEN MUCH CLOUD COVER...UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN IT WILL SPREAD MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL COOLING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE INTERIOR AND THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND (NORTH OF) THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE TROUGH ALOFT. WIND CHILLS IN THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY APPEAR UNLIKELY TO REACH THE ADVISORY LEVEL...EXCEPT IN ZONE 220...AND MAYBE NOT THERE. EXPECT LESS DRAMA IN THE WEST COAST ZONES...BUT A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN THERE AS WELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS MOST AREAS THURSDAY...AND COLDER DESPITE THE WINDS. WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM IN THE TOPKOK AREA ALONG THE IDITAROD TRAIL IN PARTICULAR. ONLY AN EASTERN POES PASS SO FAR THIS MORNING...EAST OF A LINE FROM BARROW TO KENAI. THERE APPEARS TO BE CONSIDERABLE STATUS OR FOG OVER ZONE 204...AND OVER ZONE 203 SOUTHEAST OF DEADHORSE. EXPECT THIS STUFF TO INCREASE AND SPREAD WEST TODAY. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ220. && $$ DJH MAR 13  FXAK69 PAFG 052025 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1225 PM AKDT MON MAY 5 2014 .DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR...SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY...AND THE NORTHERN ALASKA WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT REBUILDING NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND TUE...THEN WEAKEN WED AND THU AS THE MAIN RIDGE RECEDES EASTWARD INTO CANADA. 1733Z POES ORBIT SHOWS THE DEEP UPPER LOW CENTER ABOUT 350 MILES NORTH OF BARROW. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD...TO 600 MILES NORTH OF BARROW BY 4 AM TUE AND TO 800 MILES NORTH OF BARROW BY 4 AM WED. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS NOW LOCATED OVER EASTERN SIBERIA. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE CHUKCHI AND NORTHERN BERING SEAS BY 4 AM TUE...MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINLAND WED INTO WED EVENING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE ON THE WEST COAST WED NIGHT THEN EXIT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH THU NIGHT. ON THE SURFACE...984 MB SURFACE LOW 350 MILES NORTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO 600 MILES NORTH OF BARROW BY 4 AM TUE FILLING TO 988 MB. BY 4AM WED THE LOW WILL MOVE TO 800 MILES NORTH OF BARROW WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CENTRAL PRESSURE. BLUSTERY WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS IN ZONES 201 AND 202 AND ARE EXPECTED TO END BY 6 PM THIS EVENING. TWO COLD FRONTS LIE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BECOME SPOTTY BY TUE MORNING. AS THE FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVES MOVES EAST...ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE MORE RAIN ALONG THE OLD FRONT. THE SHORT WAVE WILL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE WEST COAST...WESTERN ARCTIC COAST AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR TUE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY SCATTERED TUE NIGHT. IN THE SHORT TERM OVER THE WEST COAST... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND IN ZONES 207-208-EXTREME WESTERN ZONE 205. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE WARMER AIR OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST INTERIOR...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW 60S...MIN RH 25-30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT HOWEVER...SO NO RED FLAGS. ELSEWHERE...MIN RH REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS POSSIBLE POSSIBLE NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER IN ZONES 224-226 THU AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER WATCH TEAM REPORTED THAT THE ICE JAM THAT WAS ABOUT 20 MILES UPSTREAM OF CIRCLE RELEASED THIS MORNING AND THE BREAKUP FRONT MOVED THROUGH CIRCLE. A NEW ICE JAM HAS FORMED DOWNRIVER FROM CIRCLE AND WATER LEVELS AT CIRCLE ARE RISING. A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR...FREEZING LEVELS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 1500 THROUGH TONIGHT...RISING TO 1500-2500 FT TUE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR...ABOUT 6000-7000 FT. THIS IS CONSIDERABLY BELOW THE 10000 FT FREEZING LEVELS DURING THE RECENT WARM SPELL WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLOWER SNOWMELT RUNOFF. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE YUKON RIVER AT CIRCLE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...AKZ201-AKZ202. BRISK WIND ADVISORY...PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240. && $$ RF MAY 14  FXAK69 PAFG 090943 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 143 AM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODEL DISCUSSION... CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR ON HANDLING OF THE MAJOR FEATURES OUT THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS CYCLE. NAM/GFS HAVE GENERALLY SIMILAR AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT GFS HAS SOMEWHAT HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER ZONE 222 AND WESTERN ZONE 220. GFS MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE FAIRBANKS AREA TODAY LOOK TOO HIGH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD CLOUD COVER SHOULD CUT DOWN ON AFTERNOON HEATING...NAM MOS FOR FAIRBANKS LOOKS MORE REALISTIC. ELSEWHERE IN THE INTERIOR... NAM AND GFS MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE RUNNING CLOSER TOGETHER. UPPER AIR... AT 500 MB...A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUKON TERRITORY INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHWARD. A SECONDARY LOBE EXTENDS FROM MAYO WESTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE...AND WILL SWING NORTHEASTWARD TO COME INTO PHASE WITH THE MAIN RIDGE BY SUN AFTERNOON...LEAVING A GENERALLY WEAK FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. A 532 DAM LOW CENTERED NEAR 56N/146 W IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL WOBBLE AROUND THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT WITH LITTLE NET CHANGE IN POSITION...THEN MOVE TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY MON AFTERNOON WHILE FILLING TO A WEAK 546 DAM CENTER. A VERY WEAK RIPPLE WILL SPLIT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION TO BE NEAR THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER YUKON VALLEY BY SUN MORNING. A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE BERING SEA AND NORTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH SUN...WITH SEVERAL WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD. SURFACE... A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE LIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...WEAK 1006 MB CENTER IS OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY. THE MAIN CENTER IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO ZONE 224 BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UPPER YUKON VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT AS IT FILLS TO 1010-1012 MB. A TROUGH NORTH OF THE ALASKA WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON... PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR SUN. A WEAK 1000 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE TO NEAR CAPE SCHMIDT ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIBERIA PENINSULA BY LATE THIS MORNING...THEN WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON. A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR DALL POINT WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY LATE THIS EVENING...BUILDING TO 1019 MB. ARCTIC COAST... AS OF 07Z...NOT MUCH STRATUS/FOG IS CURRENTLY BEING INDICATED BY POES NPP-VIIRS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB IMAGING. BARROW IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY SITE REPORTING FOG. THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AS LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS WIND FLOW COULD BECOME VARIABLE OR LIGHT WESTERLY SUN NIGHT AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG. CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR... RAIN WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUN NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SPOTTY. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN ZONE 221 AND IN NEARBY AREAS OF ZONE 219 AND WESTERN ZONE 220. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS COULD BE 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GFS MOS HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR FAIRBANKS THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TOO HIGH...CLOUD COVER SHOULD CUT DOWN ON THE SOLAR HEATING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED BY THE FORT GREELY MESONET...THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MORNING BUT REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH VERY SLOWLY LATER TONIGHT INTO MON. WEST COAST/WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN ZONE 216 TODAY AND TONIGHT...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. EXTENDED OUTLOOK DAYS 5-8...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE INTERIOR INTERIOR AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REBUILDS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ALASKA AS WELL. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. NO RED FLAGS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... A QUIET BREAKUP CONTINUES ON THE MAIN RIVERS. NO VIIRS RIVER ICE SATELLITE IMAGING WAS AVAILABLE FRI DUE TO CLOUD COVER. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220. && $$ RF MAY 15  FXAK69 PAFG 021130 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 230 AM AKST WED MAR 2 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION AT 06Z AGAINST THE SURFACE ANALYSIS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE MID RANGE. THE SEMI PERSISTENT PATTERN THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST TWO AND A HALF MONTHS DOES TRANSITION A BIT WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE STATE THIS WEEKEND...BUT THEN IT TRANSITIONS RIGHT BACK EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM RUN TO RUN SO WILL STICK TO JUST MAKING MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN NUDGE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...536 DAM HIGH NEAR 80N 160W WILL SLIDE EAST A BIT AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST TODAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE STARTS DRIFTING BACK SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. A 527 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MACKENZIE BAY TODAY AND MOVE WEST IN THE TROUGH OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BEFORE MERGING WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE INTERIOR THURSDAY. A 537 DAM HIGH CENTER OVER YAKUTAT MOVES WEST OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY LATE THIS EVENING...THEN WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY FRIDAY MORNING. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE STATE THURSDAY WITH A 521 DAM LOW OVER KANTISHNA THURSDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST WITH THE LOW MOVING SOUTH OVER BRISTOL BAY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL BUILD WEST OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH. AT 850 HPA...GRADUAL COOLING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK AND WILL SEE THE TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 15 CELSIUS BELOW OVER FAIRBANKS BY SATURDAY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. WEAK WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR STARTING SUNDAY. SURFACE...BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT THAT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE 1042 MB HIGH NEAR 78N 135W PERSISTS BUT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...A 1027 MB HIGH OVER SIBERIA BUILDS TO 1036 MB BY FRIDAY MORNING NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND...AND THE 970 MB LOW NEAR 45N 148W DRIFTS NORTH WITH A 984 MB LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 48N 135W THURSDAY AND MOVING NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE STATE. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE WEST AS THE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES NORTH. SATELLITE...SPORT AVHRR NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 02/0717Z IS FILLING IN THE GAP TONIGHT BETWEEN THE VIIRS AND MODIS IMAGES AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS WITH THE LITTLE LOW SPINNING UP AROUND MACKENZIE BAY AND SPREADING SOME SNOW TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. STRATUS EXTENDS WEST TO THE NORTHWEST COAST AND ALSO COVERS MOST OF THE ARCTIC PLAIN...THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE...AND EVEN THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR NORTH OF FORT YUKON. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE..STRATUS...PATCHY FOG...A FEW FLURRIES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHTER WINDS INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A FEW FLURRIES AROUND THE SEWARD PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL BE CLEARING OR MOSTLY CLEAR. SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE KOTZEBUE SOUND AREA WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS THAT WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH LIGHTER VARIABLE WINDS INLAND. COOLING TREND OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD AIR IS PULLED SOUTH BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS. A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH OF FAIRBANKS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND YUKON FLATS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AS FAR AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT...BUT INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 50 MPH. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WARMING A FEW DEGREES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 16  FXAK69 PAFG 031245 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 345 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 03/06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE MID RANGE...AND ARE EVEN TRENDING THE SAME DIRECTION IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. STILL NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM RUN TO RUN SO AGAIN WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN NUDGE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...533 DAM HIGH NEAR 80N 140W WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS TO BE 500 NM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST TO MACKENZIE BAY BY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND YUKON TERRITORY. A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A 515 DAM LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE AND LIES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC. THE 515 DAM LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST TO BRISTOL BAY BY LATE FRIDAY...THEN OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA BY LATE SATURDAY. A 534 DAM HIGH CENTER OVER BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OVER THE PRIBILOFS THIS EVENING...AND THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A 538 DAM HIGH OVER SIBERIA EARLY FRIDAY. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND PUSH TO THE NORTHWEST COAST BY LATE SUNDAY WHILE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. AT 850 HPA...GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 13 CELSIUS BELOW OVER FAIRBANKS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF FAIRBANKS. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR STARTING SUNDAY. SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE. A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS CHANGING AS THE 1037 MB HIGH NEAR 78N 140W WOBBLES AROUND A BIT AND SLIPS SOUTHWEST TO 77N 155W BY LATE FRIDAY...AND 966 MB LOW NEAR 48N 150W PERSISTS BUT SWINGS A 974 MB LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE WITH STRONGER NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS DEVELOPING IN MANY AREAS OF THE STATE. A 1030 MB HIGH OVER SIBERIA WILL PERSIST WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA TODAY SLOWLY SLIDING TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO BE OVER THE WEST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. SATELLITE...SPORT AVHRR NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 02/0655Z IS AGAIN FILLING IN THE GAP TONIGHT BETWEEN THE VIIRS AND MODIS IMAGES. USING THE AVHRR IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE GOES MVFR/IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 03/0900Z THEY INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER STRATUS THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTON SOUND ACROSS KOTZEBUE SOUND THEN OVER THE ARCTIC COAST...PLAINS...AND BROOKS RANGE TO MACKENZIE BAY...AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR NORTH OF FORT YUKON. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...NOT SEEING ANY REASON FOR THE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES TO MOVE ON...SO WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE THE FIRST COUPLE PERIODS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHTER WINDS INLAND. WINDS WILL START PICKING UP TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WINTER WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS WINDS KICK UP NEAR 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL SLIGHTLY THROUGH SATURDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND THE COASTAL AREAS. A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING IN THE BERING STRAIT AND KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION AND SOME DENSE FOG IN THE BERING STRAIT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE INTERIOR AREAS. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH LIGHTER VARIABLE WINDS INLAND. COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR IS PULLED SOUTH BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE STATE. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS...BUT A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH OF FAIRBANKS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND YUKON FLATS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AS FAR AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. INCREASING WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ACROSS THE STATE. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 50 MPH. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WARMING A FEW DEGREES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 16  FXAK69 PAFG 041126 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 226 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION AGAINST THE 04/06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD THE LAST FEW DAYS. THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS OUT TO THE MID RANGE...BUT THE PATTERN OVER MAINLAND ALASKA BECOMES PRETTY BENIGN BEYOND 100 HOURS OR SO. WILL USE THE SAME METHODOLOGY THAT WE HAVE USED THE LAST FEW DAYS AND MAKE ONLY MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN NUDGE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...533 DAM HIGH NEAR 80N 135W WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO 500 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES BY MONDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC. A 515 DAM LOW OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM DRAINAGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWEST TO BE OVER BRISTOL BAY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND OVER DUTCH HARBOR BY SUNDAY MORNING. A 538 DAM HIGH OVER SIBERIA WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE PRIBILOFS ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH THE RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA MOVING WEST TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A 503 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEAR 48N 150W WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO BE NEAR 48N 140W BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT 509 DAM...THEN DISSIPATES MON. AS THE LOW OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM SLIDES SOUTHWEST THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE INTERIOR TONIGHT...EXTENDING TO THE NORTHWEST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY...AND PERSIST INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. AT 850 HPA...ONE LAST DAY OF COOLING...MAYBE ANOTHER DEGREE...THEN THE SLOW WARM UP BEGINS AND CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE WILL START GETTING PINCHED A BIT TODAY AS A 976 MB LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE COAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA...AND THE 1031 MB HIGH IN THE HIGH ARCTIC DRIFTS A LITTLE SOUTH AND RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES STRENGTHENS A BIT. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD ON INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT STARTING LATE SUNDAY. THE PATTERN OVER THE MAINLAND FALLS APART TUESDAY AND WINDS OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND WILL BE LIGHT. THE DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO BE OVER THE WEST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. SATELLITE...SPORT AVHRR NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 04/0634Z AND 04/0815Z SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND THE BERING STRAIT REGION. USING IT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE GOES MVFR/IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 04/0845Z THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF MVFR OVER THE WEST COAST AND ARCTIC...AND THE ALASKA RANGE...WITH A PATCH OF IFR OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC PLAINS. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WINDS PICKING UP ON THE NORTHEAST COAST AND OVER THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA TIGHTENS UP. STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW WILL BE EAST OF NUIQSUT. WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 25 MPH RANGE. TEMPERATURES DROPPING ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO THROUGH SATURDAY THEN A SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE NORTHWEST COAST AND WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 203 AND 204 DUE MAINLY TO THE VISIBILITY ISSUES. WIND CHILL COULD APPROACH 50 BELOW IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AROUND BARTER ISLAND ON SATURDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS...OTHERWISE CLEARING TODAY AS THE RIDGE OVER SIBERIA PUSHES A BIT EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A BIT MORE...UP TO 10 DEGREES COOLER...OUT HERE AS THE COLD AIR IS DRAGGED SOUTH IN THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IN SIBERIA AND THE LOW MOVING OVER BRISTOL BAY. WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE BERING STRAIT WILL PICK UP TO GALE FORCE WITH WINDS NEAR 50 MPH ON THE BERING STRAIT COAST. DO NOT EXPECT TOO MANY ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW BUT WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE BERING STRAIT COAST TO COVER THE STRONG WINDS AND PERIODS OF POOR VISIBILITY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND THICKENING OVER THE INTERIOR AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NIKOLAI AREA. EXPECT SOME FLURRIES AROUND THE AREA...BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IF ANY FOR MOST AREAS. THE LOW MOVES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR BY LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS PICKING UP AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL BLOWING SNOW OVER SOME OF THE SUMMITS IN THE INTERIOR. MODELS INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE YUKON FLATS. NORTH WINDS ALSO PICK UP A BIT IN THE PASSES AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ213. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240- PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 16  FXAK69 PAFG 012002 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1202 PM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Mainland Alaska continues under a strong upper level ridge this morning with an upper level low over the southwestern Alaska peninsula. A trough remains over the Northwestern Territories and British Columbia as the eastern dominate feature. This set up has developed a Tanana Valley Jet situation for stronger winds along the Tanana Valley of the Interior of Alaska. Delta Junction and the gap flow areas of the Alaska range in the vicinity of Delta Junction will continue to experience wind advisory level gusts through Tuesday afternoon. Elsewhere in the interior gusty wind with highest readings in elevated terrain should remain below advisory levels. Otherwise mostly fair skies across the region, even the north slope has a fairly clear start to the day. && .DISCUSSION... Models for the 01/12Z runs are in fairly good agreement for the short term update today. Ensembles show little disagreement in solutions lasting through Friday afternoon for a higher than normal forecast confidence. Saturday the CMC breaks off a cut off low over the arctic slope where the other models do not. As the models progress normal breakdown in agree occurs and means spread out for lower confidence with the extended. Aloft...at 500 hpa...A strong ridge centered over North Slope will continue through Wednesday night before pinching off into a bubble high over the offshore zones Thursday morning. However, heading into the weekend the Northeast Pacific ridge builds into the southern mainland and reconnects with the offshore high to establish the ridge as the dominate feature over the eastern interior holding on til Monday with a brief wave passing through the ridge. Then the ridge builds back up for the remainder of the extended term of the forecast. Out west the west coast zones will fall under the influence of the ex-tropical system that moves into the Bering Sea and sets up shop on Tuesday and remains circling the Bering Sea into next week blocking up the upper level flow pattern. This will keep the west coast cloudy and damp... along with wind conditions at times. Do expect small crafts to possible gales in the marine forecast at times in the Bering Strait region. Arctic Coast and Brook Range...Fair skies continue today with polar easterly winds ramping up through the period. Recent POES image shows clear skies for a good amount of the offshore region keeping the stratus away for the next several hours. Hi-res guidance keeps clear skies going into the overnight hours. The PABR 12Z RAOB is very dry, other than the shallow inversion layer for the entire sounding. Based on current trends the highest confidence would be to keep the forecast fair, however, always be ready for a quick adjustment if the stratus starts to form and spread out. Do not expect any precipitation for the arctic coast of any significance through the period as high pressure dominates. West Coast and Western Interior...Some clouds along the southwest coast and in the Bering Strait with showers in the Lower Yukon Delta today, spreading north to the Bering Strait tonight. No significant rainfall is expected. In the Western Interior and Kotzebue Sound region expect partly cloudy conditions today and tonight. Northeast to east winds 10 to 30 mph with the strongest winds in the Lower Yukon Delta, and along the coast from the Bering Strait south to include St Lawrence Island. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm during the day with highs in the upper 50s to around 60, but cooling sharply overnight with lows near freezing in the inland areas, and around 40 along the coast. Central and Eastern Interior...Mainly fair skies across the region for the short term of the forecast. Forecast issue remains wind with a Tanana Valley Jet established from the low pressure in the Mackenzie River valley and the high pressure over the central section of the state. Wind advisories remain in place for the typically breezy locations of Delta Junction and the Alaska range gaps through Tuesday. The remaining interior will have breezy non-advisory conditions with higher elevations gusting to 30 mph at times. The ridge aloft will hold off any chance of precipitation until the extended section of the forecast. Temperatures shall remain above seasonal normals on average with only a slow cooling trend noted. The ridge will set up some inversions for the valleys therefore watch out for cold pools in low lying areas. Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...The ridge over the area shifts a bit east, but will still influence the weather over the Interior. Expect a few more clouds moving over the area later in the week as the ridge shifts, but it will be dry in the Central and Eastern Interior, and over most of the Arctic. The remnants of Typhoon Trami will bring clouds and showers to areas west of Ruby through next weekend with most of the showers south of the Bering Strait. It still looks like the first chance for snow in Fairbanks is at least a week away unless we get some dramatic pattern change that the models are missing. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...The remnants of Typhoon Trami will move into the southwestern Bering Sea Tuesday. Strong winds will develop in the northeast Bering Sea and Bering Strait that may produce elevated surf on St Lawrence Island Tuesday and Wednesday. && HYDROLOGY...No current issues as rivers continue to slowly fall and no significant precipitation is in the forecast through the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Kotzebue had it's warmest September on record in 2018 with an average temperature of 49.1 degrees. McGrath had it's 4th warmest with 49.2 average temperature, and Nome 7th warmest with 47.2 degrees. Fairbanks came in with a less noteworthy 17th warmest with an average temperature of 48.2 degrees for September. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ226. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225- PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ PROTON OCT 18