---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK68 PAFC 261334 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 434 AM AKST Tue Feb 26 2019 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... There is a potent surface low near the coast of NE Russia south of Anadyr with an elongated occlusion bisecting the north and east Bering and pushing eastwards. There is a plume of moisture along this occlusion and the radars at Nome/PAEC and Bethel/PABC are picking up returns. As of 1319z or 4:19 AM AST the radar at King Salmon/PAKC was dry as a bone. The pressure gradient is still really tight with this system and the latest ASCAT/Advanced Scatterometer pass has detected both storm and gale fore winds in the Bering with this feature. The remainder of the frontal boundary extends more than 1500 nautical miles south of the chain into the North Pacific. There is a developing low southwest of Adak. There is a dome of high pressure at the surface over the Central Pacific and the upper level ridge is bisecting eastern Alaska and the Gulf Of Alaska. With those clear skies in place yesterday, the temperatures began to plummet once the sun set. Numerous locations are in single digit or in below zero territory this morning. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... With the prolonged residence of the longwave trough over the NW Pacific and the Bering, the initialization parameter of choice has been the ASCAT/Advanced Scatterometer wind field. Both the GFS and NAM initialized well when comparing the placement of the surface low near the NE coast of Russia and placement of the anticyclone over the Gulf Of Alaska. The global models are in good agreement with the major synoptic features through Thursday morning which includes the domes of high pressure over the Gulf of Alaska and Central Pacific, the new low impacting the Aleutians and the remnants of Wutip in the East Pacific. The only potential pitfall in the forecast package remains the fog prognostics over southcentral. The models attempt to grapple with the microscale features over Southcentral, but in reality there is a fair amount of "nowcasting" that occurs with fog and low stratus. && .AVIATION... PANC...As of 1253z or 3:53 AM AST the sky conditions at PANC were FEW002 and the VSBY was unrestricted. Once again, the Baldy Webcam has detected an area of fog/low stratus near Knik Arm. Additionally, the AVHRR/Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (which is a satellite instrument) has detected fog and low status over Cook Inlet west of Fire Island. The potential for fog or low stratus moving over PANC is actively being monitored. For the 12z TAF package, hedged with VCFG and a TEMPO for fog developing near the aerodrome and the potential for low cigs or intermittent low cigs this morning. If fog moves over PANC, conventional wisdom is that conditions would improve early afternoon as the temperature begins to climb. Other than fog or low stratus potential, expect light winds and VFR conditions. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... (Tonight through Wednesday night) The upper ridge entrenched over the Gulf and Southcentral is the dominate synoptic feature. To a lesser degree, but still noteworthy, is an inverted surface tough lingering near the North Gulf Coast. In regards to the upper ridge, it shifts east some over the next day or so. As it does so, flow in the low to mid levels becomes southerly and will help push stratus up Cook Inlet. So we are expected increasing low clouds to spread as far as north as the Anchorage Bowl tonight and perhaps the extreme southern Susitna Valley. The late February sun will likely help break up the cloud deck over land areas during the day, but cooling at night may allow low clouds to redevelop during the overnight hours. Some fog will likely accompany the stratus field. The main contribution of the coastal surface trough will be to enhance outflow conditions over the North Gulf and eastern Kenai Peninsula tonight and Wednesday. So look for gusty outflow conditions in favored locals (Copper River Delta, Thompson Pass, Whittier, etc.). && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... (Today through Friday) A persistent pattern will remain in place, with a strong omega block ridge centered to the east of the region, and a series of troughs moving from the western Bering into central portions of it. In between these two features is a surface front that is currently stalled along the Kuskokwim Delta south towards the AKPEN. A few weak waves passing through will provide some burst in ascent aloft. This combined with modest surface convergence along the front will continue to foster showery type precipitation near it. Further inland, drier conditions will continue as these locations will experience more subsidence (sinking air) and drying from the ridge of high pressure to the east. The stalled front will try to make progress further inland as an upstream storm tries to "kick" it eastward. However, the high pressure to its east will spell a quick death for it as frontolysis (the dissipation of a front) ensues. Then, a pair of lows moving through the Bering looks to send a couple of fronts towards the coast through Friday, with re-newed precipitation potential. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... (Today through Friday) As our current storm force low departs the region for eastern Siberia, more of the same is on the way, as a pair of surface lows race north from the Pacific. The first of which will enter the west central portion of the chain later this evening, reaching a position west of Saint Matthew Island by late Wednesday morning. As it does so, a surface front will surge eastward towards the coast before stalling. Widespread precipitation will accompany both of these features, with sustained gale force winds accompanying it, with the low dropping into the ~986-990 mb range. The second system, which will be the stronger of the two, will cross the chain near Adak (like its predecessor) during the mid to late afternoon hours on wednesday, passing through around 980mb. This storm looks to have some tropical origins with its moisture source, which will interact with a strong disturbance in the base of a trough exiting the Sea of Okhotsk. This mid-level storm will then get absorbed into the Bering trough, bringing the tropical moisture northward. Typically when this occurs, strong low level theta advection getting positioned under a cold Bering trough tends to lead to strong surface cyclogenesis (low pressure development), as indicated by the GFS and ECMWF models, which show the storm bottoming out just under 970mb in the northwestern Bering. As it does so, another surface front will move towards the coast. Given the increased potential instability with this storm, and from a pattern recognition standpoint, we substantially increased the winds to storm force. There's fairly high confidence as virtually all models showed similar synoptic patterns at the surface and in the mid levels, with the weaker NAM (9 mb weaker) being discounted. This also was coordinated with the Fairbanks office (AFG) after a good in house discussion. That said, additional forecast refinements are likely over the next day or so. && && .MARINE (Days 3 through 5)... We begin Wednesday with a strong pressure gradient in the Bering Sea east of 175W. There remains a good amount of uncertainty as we progress into Wednesday night and Thursday with the strength and location of the low centers. This translates to some wind direction and intensity uncertainty. At this point expect gale to storm force wind over much of the Bering east of 175W much of Wednesday and Thursday. Following this storm is a break in the action as the next strong storm is not expected to impact the western Aleutians and Bering Sea until late Friday. There is a significant difference in model solutions for this storm, though there is agreement that we will likely see gales, and possibly storm force winds, over the western Bering Sea and western Aleutians late Friday. Persistent high pressure over mainland Alaska into the Gulf of Alaska equates to generally benign conditions, sub gales Wednesday through Friday. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)... The strong upper high will continue to be the dominant feature over mainland Alaska into the Gulf of Alaska while the Bering Sea and Aleutians remain very active. Models and ensembles are in good general agreement with this overall pattern. Beginning Wednesday, the ridge will persist over eastern Alaska as the broad deep upper trough is entrenched over the Bering Sea Thursday through Saturday. A strong surface low treks north through the central Bering Sea Wednesday leaving a broad weak trough of low pressure across the Bering Thursday and Friday. This is followed by a weak ridge poking into the eastern Bering Sea late Friday into Saturday while yet another strong low moves into the picture over the western Aleutians. Here the models diverge on the location and intensity of this storm, but do agree on a tight pressure gradient moving into the central to western Bering Sea. This prefrontal pressure gradient then moves to the eastern Bering Sea through the weekend, bringing with it gale to storm force wind along with warmer low level air. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...Storm 170 173 174. Gale 172 411 412 413 414 165 175 176 179 180 181 185. && $$ SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BC SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD MARINE/LONG TERM...BJB  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK68 PAFC 111327 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 427 AM AKST Mon Feb 11 2019 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... There is a surface low in the southern Gulf Of Alaska and a deep surface low near Attu Island with an approximate intensity of 958 mb. Additionally, there is a dome of high pressure over the Central Pacific with a ridge nosing its way towards Southwestern Alaska. The low in the West Bering has an occluded front north of the chain with the warm front bisecting the Aleutians and the associated cold front extends back towards Japan. This juggernaut is producing hurricane and storm force winds and wave heights greater than 40 feet near the Western Aleutians. The core of the jet has curved into the Bering and is steering this system. Meanwhile, the radars at PAHG/Kenai, PAIH/Middleton Island, and PAKC/King Salmon are all in "Clear Air Mode" early this morning. While the leading edge of the precipitaton shield from the next Bering system has moved into Nightmute and Kipnuk and has been detected by radar at Bethel/PABC. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... The global models are in good agreement through 72 hrs with the placement synoptic features. This pattern where the longwave trough has dominated the western/central Bering and NW Pacific has been going on for weeks now. The persistence of this pattern may be impacting the performance of the global models. There are some minor differences with the intensity of the jet core associated with the current Bering storm and with the 1000-850 thickness values past 24 hrs which could be a red herring for p-type for the AKPEN and SW AK. But otherwise the confidence level for this forecast package is above average especially considering that it is February. && .AVIATION... PANC...Fog has again developed over the Anchorage Bowl this morning. As of 1253Z or 3:53 AM local the visibility at PANC was reduced to 1/4 SM freezing fog and the ceiling at PAMR was 100 feet. Looking at other spots around the Cook Inlet, fog was observed at the metar for PAEN and fog was detected on the AVHRR south of Anchorage. Generally expecting light winds and VFR conditions at PANC for the ensuing 30hr forecast period. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2/Today through Tuesday night)... As a very weak short-wave trough exits this morning a ridge will build right back overhead of Southcentral. Local areas of fog will linger through the morning hours, especially from the western Kenai Peninsula northward to Anchorage. A weakening surface front will then approach from the west this afternoon, leading to increasing mid to high clouds. With the parent low far away over the northern Bering Sea, there will be very little in the way of upper level forcing. Thus, front will cross Southcentral tonight with very little precipitation. Deep and strong low level southwest flow will produce upslope along the west side of the Kenai, Chugach, and Talkeetna Mountains. Thus, best chance of some light snow accumulation will be right along the mountains. Cold air advection behind the front will kick up winds across the western Gulf as well as the bays and passes of western Prince William Sound overnight tonight into Tuesday. A strong upper level short-wave tracking along the Aleutians Tuesday will lead to cyclogenesis south of the Alaska Peninsula. This low will track south of Kodiak Tuesday night then exit across the southern Gulf Wednesday. This scenario is similar to what occurred in this same area Saturday night and Sunday. A building ridge upstream of the low will help tighten pressure gradients and lead to pressure rises along the Alaska Peninsula. When combined with cold air advection, this will lead to another round of strong winds across the western Gulf and Kodiak Island on Wednesday, with the typically much stronger gusts out of bays and passes of the Alaska Peninsula. && .MARINE (Days 3 through 5)... The period begins early Wednesday with a low around 960 mb southwest of the Bering Sea and another strong low south of Kodiak Island. The track and intensity of both of these lows is not changing much from run-to-run on the computer models and the overall solution looks very reasonable, so the forecast confidence is above normal as compared to other lows recently. The low south of Kodiak should pull southeastward and bring in some north-to-northwesterly storm force winds south of The Alaska Peninsula and near Kodiak Island Wednesday then move out of the area by Thursday. The low approaching the Bering Sea and the front associated with it will bring periods of gales to most of the Bering/Aleutian region with a significant area of storms in the western Bering/Aleutians on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)... The long term forecast period starts early Wednesday with the very active storm track over the western and northern Bering Sea where it will generally remain through next weekend. A strong frontal system will cross the west and central Aleutians on Wednesday and then continue across the Bering Wednesday night and Thursday to reach the Southwest Alaska coast Thursday afternoon. This front will then shear apart and dissipate Thursday night as it tries to swing inland to be replaced by a high amplitude ridge. The next strong front will move into the central Bering Thursday night and continue east to push across Southwest Alaska Friday night. Another frontal wave will follow behind it, crossing the Alaska Peninsula Saturday and then lifting northeast into Southern Alaska Saturday night through Sunday. Yet another strong front will approach the western Aleutians late Saturday night. Its powerful parent low will track into and across the Bering Sunday through Sunday night with its associated frontal system swinging east across the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula to reach Southwest Alaska Monday. For Southcentral Alaska, the long term forecast period will begin with a low track from west to east across the southern Gulf Wednesday with a cold upper level trough to the north digging into Southcentral Alaska behind it. The result will be a rapid strengthening of offshore flow Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night, particularly through channeled terrain gaps. Upper level ridging will build in from the west Thursday and Friday bringing a gradual easing of the offshore flow and steady warming aloft. By Friday night the axis off the upper level ridge will push east to be centered over Southcentral Alaska with a weakening frontal system following behind on Saturday. A second, better organized frontal wave will push into Southcentral Alaska Saturday night and Sunday. Ridging will briefly rebuild Sunday night ahead of another front coming in from the southwest. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 191 195. Winter Weather Advisory 155. MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray 185. Storms 414 413 412 411 175 177 178 179 181 185. Gales 165 170 173 176 180 351 131 120. && $$ SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA MARINE/LONG TERM...JR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK68 PAFC 061347 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 447 AM AKST Sun Jan 6 2019 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... There is a weakening surface low north of Attu Island that is vertically stacked and has the remnants of a decaying occlusion wrapped into it. There is a mature low south of Unalaska and a second mature low that is rapidly intensifying southwest of Attu Island. In the latest ASCAT/advanced scatterometer image there is a large area of high pressure at the surface south of the AKPEN and Kodiak. The jet stream is south of 50N. There are two distinct jet cores supporting the aforementioned matures cyclones. The radars at King Salmon and Kenai are barren and both in clear air mode. Meanwhile, the Middleton Island and Bethel radars have a few light returns on them but nothing ominous or sinister. On the GOES Nighttime Microphysics and the AVHRR (which are both satellite products) fog and low clouds have been detected again over portions of Southcentral, more specifically Anchorage, Wasilla and Hope. The satellite has also pinged into areas of freezing fog and low stratus in the Copper River Basin. There is a another area of fog in Southwest Alaska over portions of the Kuskokwim River north and east of Aniak. The coldest region again for the southern tier of Alaska remains the Copper River Basin where temperatures are ranging from the negative teens to negative twenties. However, at 4 AM this morning the METAR at Talkeetna was -21F which was a function of pure radiational cooling. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement with the major synoptic features through Tuesday. The caveat being the decaying low in the extreme Western Bering. But the model consensus with the train of cyclones south of 50N in the short term forecast period looks good. Weather models in high latitude environments in general don't handle microscale features such as localized fog very well. Which is the case right now for the fog and stratus in the Anchorage Metro Area. This is the portion of the forecast is where the level of uncertainty is bumped up a skosh. && .AVIATION... PANC...The nighttime microphysics images from GOES have detected an area of fog/low stratus over Knik Arm, Turnagain Arm and over portions of the Cook Inlet. The metars near the Knik Arm suggest that the base of that batch of stratus is at 200 feet. The stratus over Cook Inlet ranges from cigs of 600 to 1000 feet. There has not been a lot of mixing and the forecast for the ensuing 30 hr period still looks pretty stagnant in the boundary layer. The best chance for VFR flight conditions at PANC will be this afternoon but its not a guarantee. The fog/stratus situation is actively being monitored. Amendments will be made as required. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... The same forecast issues from the past two days will remain again today across Southcentral...areas of fog around Cook Inlet and the Copper River Basin and winds through channeled terrain. The fog and low stratus does look to mostly remain again today and through tonight in these areas. This has led to the low temperatures tonight being adjusted upward some as skies should not clear out. Tonight, a short wave will move over Kodiak Island and then progress over the Cook Inlet area for Monday and Monday night. While this is not a strong short wave it will be enough to increase mid and higher level clouds which may help break up the persistent fog and stratus over Cook Inlet. The trough along the northern Gulf of Alaska coastline has helped increase some of the outflow winds from Seward through the Prince William Sound area. These winds and colder temperatures have decreased the wind chill in Thompson Pass to around 45 below zero this morning. Since the temperatures will continue and winds will persist near those levels through Monday morning, a wind chill advisory has been issued for that area through Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Sunday through Tuesday)... The first of two fronts forecasted to impact southwest Alaska is currently coming ashore from the Bering Sea. It is producing some light snow and windy conditions along the coast as it does so. This is reducing visibility to a mile or so, but those conditions are localized. Additionally, the low stratus that has been in place is slow to move out of inland areas of the southwest. It is clearly evident on the nighttime microphysics satellite. As the front pushes inland, it should clear out the remaining stratus. After this front pushes through, it will pretty much be a repeat of the setup we have had the past couple of days. A brief break in the weather will occur later today with the strong possibility of stratus/fog setting up again over the area. Being that stratus has been slow to dissipate and there is a broad deck of it throughout western Alaska, would not be surprised to see it return after the front moves through. These indicators show conditions are primed for it to redevelop. The next front will then approach the coast tomorrow night, bringing about the same weather for Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Sunday through Tuesday)... The low center with the first in succession of two lows is pushing out of our forecast area in the Western Bering. Its slowly decaying front is leaving the eastern Aleutians and moving into southwest Alaska. Behind this low center, some cold core cumulus is moving through the Bering and Aleutian Islands. It is in association with cold air being entrained into the low. The next low that will be moving through the Bering and Aleutians is starting to appear in our forecast area on satellite imagery and is entering the western Aleutian Islands. Storm force winds with a few hurricane force gusts are still forecasted with this low. However, as the previous discussion mentioned, these stronger wind gusts will be brief so still steering away from issuing any hazard products associated with them. The front still looks to detach from the low center and lose its dynamic support as it moves east. This means little change in the forecast for the area. && .MARINE (Days 3 through 5)... Beginning Tuesday evening, conditions are expected to improve across the Bering Sea as a storm system tracks north out of the area while weakening. Winds and waves are likely to subside quite a bit through Wednesday night before the next storm system approaches from the south by Wednesday night. The storm is expected to be quite strong with central pressures potentially bottoming out below 950 mb, though the system is expected to weaken as it approaches the Western/Central Aleutians and stay south of the island chain. This would bring upper end gale force winds to most of the Western Bering Thursday night into Friday. Models have been fairly consistent with this storm so far, thus confidence is above average in the track and strength. Though, if the low takes a more northward track and maintains its strength, winds will likely increase into the storm force category. Over the Gulf of Alaska, high pressure will continue to keep the storm track to the south and west, thus expect generally good conditions through the week. Localized higher winds may develop out of bays and passes along the North Gulf Coast due to northerly outflow winds. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)... The long term forecast begins Wednesday with high pressure over most of Southcentral and a cold Arctic upper level low over the northern mainland. This will keep cold and dry conditions with offshore flow over Southcentral and most of Southwest AK through the end of the week. A few shortwaves rotating around a low south of the AKPEN and the Arctic low will bring some snow showers to parts of southwest AK on Wednesday but should diminish by the end of the day. The Arctic low is expected to shift south some allowing even colder air to filter in over the southern mainland on Thursday. At the same time, a strong North Pacific low will move north towards the Aleutians, but should stay south of the island chain as a strong polar high over Siberia will prevent the system from pushing further north. Regardless, the system will bring very wet and windy conditions to the Aleutians and spread further east towards the AKPEN by the end of the week. Models are now beginning to show the low complex spreading east into the Gulf of Alaska by Friday as high pressure shifts east at the same time. This would bring a pattern change to the southern mainland with a return to warm and wet southerly flow as we head into the weekend. There is still a fair amount of disagreement between models as to how far east the North Pacific low gets, so a lot could change between now and then. Best to keep track of the forecast for updates through the week as the details are worked out. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Wind Chill Advisory 131. MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray 185. Gale 414 412 170 172 173 174. Storm 413 411 175 176 177 178 179 185. && $$ SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BJB MARINE/LONG TERM...KVP  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK68 PAFC 051412 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 512 AM AKST Sat Jan 5 2019 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... There is a deep surface low northwest of Adak with an occluded front extending from it. And there is a triple point low that has formed south of Nikolski. In the latest ASCAT/advanced scatterometer pass there is a large area of high pressure at the surface from the Gulf Of Alaska to south of the AKPEN. There is a fierce jet core south of the chain and the longwave pattern is becoming more amplified. The radars at King Salmon, Middleton Island and Kenai are all clear. There does appear to be one shower on the Bethel radar but it isn't anything impressive. On the GOES Nighttime Microphysics and the AVHRR (which are both satellite products) fog and low clouds have been detected again over portions of Knik Arm, Turnagain Arm and in the Anchorage Metro area. The coldest area for the southern tier of Alaska remains the Copper River Basin where temperatures are handily into negative territory. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... Models continue to remain in sync with the synoptic features through the short-term forecast period. Overall, forecast confidence remains above normal for the Bering/Aleutians and SW AK. The only fly in the ointment remains the fog issues over Southcentral Alaska. && .AVIATION... PANC...Looking at Southcentral Alaska, specialized satellite imagery has detected several areas of fog and low clouds over portions of the Anchorage Bowl and the Kenai Peninsula. Compared to 24 hrs ago, the fog bank is smaller. Looking at the metars the bases of these clouds are under 500 feet in some places. More fog and LIFR conditions are possible this morning for PANC. The boundary layer is generally stagnate based on the light winds and the presence of an inversion on the skew-t for Anchorage. There are discernible breaks in the clouds and fog but it difficult to pinpoint when VFR conditions will materialize over PANC. The situation is actively being monitored and amendments will be made when necessary. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... The overall pattern over Southcentral is similar to yesterday with a weak upper level ridge over the area and a weak surface trough in the northern Gulf of Alaska. A weak short wave is washing out as it crosses over the upper level ridge and bringing in a few higher clouds to the Cook Inlet region and Susitna Valley. This is helping to diminish the extent of the fog around Cook Inlet though patchy fog is likely to move in and out throughout the day. The Copper River Basin will likely remain with some fog/low stratus in the lower elevations as there is just not much mixing of the air to dissipate it. A difference from yesterday is that instead of significant fog in the Glennallen area with lows in the single-digits below zero, the fog has lifted to a stratus ceiling and temperatures have plunged to more than 20 below zero. This is indicating that there is a chance the stratus diminishes and clears out today, however think it is more likely to wait until tomorrow so forecast reflects that. Outflow winds along the north Gulf coast will persist through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Saturday through Monday)... A low level stratus deck currently sits over southwest Alaska, along with some fog and light snow showers. This stratus deck is the result of a cold air intrusion from the north, whose flow is clearly depicted on satellite. These conditions are expected to persist today as there are no real kickers to change the pattern. What will be the kicker comes in tonight through tomorrow in the form of the frontal system currently moving across the Aleutian Islands. When it reaches southwest Alaska, it will bring a shift in the wind direction and a band of precip that should dispatch the stratus deck in place. After this front moves through, there will be some brief clearing in the weather before the next front moves in late Monday. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Saturday through Monday)... Two large low pressures systems with storm force winds will work their way through the Bering Sea and Aleutian Island chain the next couple of days. The first storm is currently moving through the Western Aleutians, with an elongated front that is well removed from the low center. This front moving through the Central and Eastern Aleutians today and will produce snow/rain and gusty winds. The storm force winds with this system are more associated with the low center and in the Western Aleutians and Central Bering. Tomorrow into tomorrow night the next low will move north across the western edge of the Aleutians. A band of storm force winds will push through the western Aleutians in association with frontal system with this low, which is a bit different than the low currently moving through the area. It will also bring a strong band of precipitation with it. After this low pushes through the region, the Bering and Aleutian Island Chain will be quiet for the remainder of the short term. && .MARINE (Days 3 through 5)... Monday evening, the Bering Sea will be "quieting down" behind a two strong storm force lows. The remnants of the last storm force low will be moving into the Bering Strait. This period of time from Monday night through Wednesday will be characterized by very broad low pressure with a couple of weak fronts moving in from the North Pacific. At this juncture, these lows look rather weak and will likely remain below gale force. The next front of interest comes late Wednesday night as it moves north into the western Bering Sea and east toward the Central Aleutians. This front will likely support strong gales to low end storm force winds. Over the Gulf waters, a weak front will move onto the North Gulf Coast Monday night, but winds will continue to remain below gale force as the storm track remains well south of the area. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...An Arctic high over northern AK and Canada will continue to bring cold dry conditions and offshore flow to Southcentral and Southwest AK through mid to late next week. Monday into Wednesday, several shortwaves will rotate around a low situated over the Bering Sea, bringing periods of precipitation and increased winds to the Aleutians. These waves will push weakening fronts toward the mainland resulting in onshore flow and potential precipitation over the AKPEN, Bristol Bay, and Y-K Delta areas. Southcentral will remain mostly dry during this time period, as any approaching boundary will dissipate by the time it reaches the Alaska Range. Late Wednesday into Thursday, a potent low from the southwest will approach the western Aleutians. Models have been fairly consistent with the basic pattern, but there's uncertainty as to how strong winds will get in the Aleutians...the low is expected to rapidly deepen with potential storm force winds, however a slight southerly shift in its track would indicate primarily gales for the Aleutians. On that note, models continue to point to the potential for wetter conditions in Southcentral late next week, but this will be contingent on the progression of the low upstream. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray 185 181 160. Gale 414 165 170 171 172 173 174 179 181. Storm 411 412 413 175 176 177 178 185. && $$ SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...BJB MARINE/LONG TERM...JA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK68 PAFC 041342 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 442 AM AKST Fri Jan 4 2019 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... The longwave pattern features a broad trough from Eastern Siberia to Western Alaska. There is a ridge axis which spans from Hawaii to the Central Aleutians which will serve as a break between storms. There is a strong jet core south of 50N but a sliver of the jet is breaking off and curving towards the Bering. The remnants of a decaying low has brought some moisture into portions of southwest AK and the radar at Bethel (PABC) has pinged into a band of snow. Looking at the temperatures aloft and at the surface, there is a cold airmass in place which has originated from the Siberian vortex but the arctic intrusion is being displaced away from the Western Aleutians as the next occluded system moves in from the North Pacific. Looking at Southcentral, specialized satellite imagery has detected several areas of fog over portions of the Anchorage Metro Area and the Kenai Peninsula. Last but not least, the Copper River Basin continues to stockpile brutally cold and dense air. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... The models have converged on a solution for the Western Bering and North Pacific for today and Saturday. The consensus is mirrored over the Alaskan Interior through to the Gulf Of Alaska. Model divergence begins to creep into the domain on Sunday morning but its predominately with the decaying low near Kamchatka. The other low near Attu and the frontal boundary pushing across the Aleutians looks well-synced through Sunday. Other than the pesky fog issues in Southcentral, above normal confidence with the sensible weather highlights through the weekend. && .AVIATION... PANC...On the Nighttime Microphysics and AVHRR (which are both satellite products) there is a bank of fog over portions of Knik Arm, Turnagain Arm, in the Anchorage Bowl and down to PAEN. The metars around the area all have light to calm winds which supports the notion that its pretty stagnate in the boundary layer. The fog situation is being actively monitored. Degraded flight categories due to reduced visibilities and low cigs likely at PANC this morning. The other very plausible possibility is that the bank of fog may just remain in the vicinity. Amendments will be made as needed. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... With high pressure over Southcentral Alaska the only issues to look into for today are the outflow winds and fog potential. The low level northerly flow over Cook Inlet and the Susitna Valley caused fog to pack up along the Chugach and Kenai Mountains overnight. Nighttime microphysics imagery from the GOES 17 satellite is showing this fog through Knik Arm and most of Anchorage and engulfing Turnagain Arm and part of the Kenai Peninsula. This fog may be a little stubborn to completely clear out as the light northerly flow will persist. However, some high clouds from a weak short wave may help to disrupt the fog as it moves over the area later today. Fog has also developed in the Copper River Basin and it increasing in coverage early this morning. This fog may also be difficult to get rid of today into tonight. There are some outflow winds along the North Gulf coast bringing some gusty conditions to Seward and Whittier as well as through passes such as Thompson Pass. With the overall pattern remaining the same though tomorrow, these winds should persist. The winds that often develop which are not developing yet are the Matanuska River winds. The pressure gradient shifts very slightly tonight which could allow some to develop, but even if they do the gradient will not be strong enough for them to be very strong. Even so, it will be worth keeping an eye on as they can sometimes develop even without a very tight pressure gradient. This is especially true when the Copper River Basin temperatures are well below zero which they already are, and will be getting colder. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday)... Diminishing of the snowfall rates across the Kuskokwim Delta is already underway as a front moving into the area from the Bering shears apart. Nevertheless due to a bit of upsloping, the snow may persist east of Bethel along the mountains through the rest of the morning. Further south, as the front moves through Bristol Bay this morning, a similar effect of some upslope may allow some snow showers to develop near King Salmon this morning and slowly drift eastward towards the Iliamna area this afternoon. Elsewhere, some patchy fog may develop in some of the same areas that will get snow earlier in the day due to the extra moisture added to the atmosphere from the snow and light and variable winds. All precipitation will end tonight with continued seasonably cold temperatures persisting. On the way behind it is another front that looks to be an interesting example of meteorological de ja vu all over again. The front will approach the Kuskokwim Delta from the west Saturday night, potentially causing briefly moderate snowfall rates around Bethel overnight. Then the front will rapidly weaken as it tracks eastward, but lingering snow showers along the west sides of the mountains may persist into the day on Sunday. Thus, it appears to be nearly a repeat of the event going on right now for most of the area. Elsewhere, winds look to remain light and variable for nearly all of Southwest Alaska through Sunday with the exception of some gustier conditions along the coast Saturday evening as the front moves in from the Bering. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday)... Not much is going on across the vast majority of the Bering this morning as high pressure over the eastern two-thirds of the Basin keeps weather conditions quiet. However, the first of two storm systems is quickly approaching the western and central Aleutians that will keep the area active for the next several days. The strengthening storm system will produce widespread gale force winds with storm force gusts over most of that area as it tracks to the west of the Date Line this afternoon. Behind the low, a "sting jet" is already appearing on satellite, which itself is expected to produce storm force winds and gusts approaching hurricane force over the Western Aleutians starting tonight and persisting into the day Saturday. The storm weakens and moves to the northwest, nearing the Kamchatka Peninsula Saturday night. The leading front associated with this low will be the one approaching mainland Alaska Saturday night as well with that front shearing apart as it moves into Southwest Alaska. Even as this first low weakens, the second one will be right on its heels on Saturday night. Currently the center is expected to track over or near Shemya early Sunday morning. Most of the strongest winds with this system will be east of the low in the warmer southerly flow out ahead of the center. This means the strongest winds which currently also look to get to storm force will take aim mainly on the central Aleutians, including Adak and Atka, late Saturday night into the day on Sunday. The low center will slowly continue moving into the northwestern Bering Sunday night as its leading front sweeps across the Bering, bringing gusty southeasterly winds to the Pribilofs and Eastern Aleutians Sunday night, then rapidly weakens and shears apart beyond that as it approaches the Kuskokwim Delta coast and Alaska Peninsula Monday morning. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)... An Arctic high over northern AK and Canada will continue to bring cold dry conditions and offshore flow to Southcentral and Southwest AK through early next week. Expect temperatures to be below climo normal for the first time this winter for most of Southcentral. The last few runs of the GFS and EC have positioned the axis of the high over the Yukon, indicating very cold conditions in the Copper River Basin. Meanwhile, models continue to indicate a storm force, or high end gale force low impacting the Aleutians and western Bering Sea Sunday then winds should diminish and precipitation will transition to a showery pattern Monday as the low shifts northward into the central Bering Sea. Expect a series of weak fronts associated with the low to bring onshore flow and potential for precipitation to the AKPEN, Bristol Bay, and Y-K Delta areas early next week. There's uncertainty with the timing of these waves given the dependence on the exact progression of that main low, which has differed between various models and runs. High pressure over Southcentral will erode by mid next week, bringing increasing chances for precipitation by the second half of the week. && .MARINE (Days 3 through 5)... A storm force low will move into the western Bering Sea Sunday then track north toward Eastern Siberia by Monday. The front will bring a swath of southerly gale/storm force winds to the Central Bering Sea before the front exits the north Bering Sea Monday night. Much quieter weather moves into the Bering Tuesday as the storm track shifts south. Over the Gulf waters, the weather regime will remain quiet as north/northwest offshore winds remain below gale force. A weak front moves into the Gulf waters on Tuesday, but the front will be weakening and also currently looks to remain below gale force. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...Gale 165 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 179 181 411 412 413 414. Storm 178 185. && $$ SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JPW MARINE/LONG TERM...JA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK68 PAFC 031334 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 434 AM AKST Thu Jan 3 2019 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... There is a vortex of cold air over Eastern Siberia, with this frigid air pushing over the Bering. The models and the ASCAT/advanced scatterometer data have detected several weak and decaying surface lows over the Bering but the most organized lows are well south of 50N. Not surprising, the jet core is also south of 50N. The longwave trough clearly spans from Russia across the Bering and into Western Alaska. Looking at the temperatures aloft and at the surface, there is a blanket of Arctic air south of the Aleutians, albeit slightly modified and a brutal cold airmass over the interior. The radars at Bethel (PABC), Kenai (PAHG) and Middleton Islands (PAIH) have snow showers on them early this morning. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... The NAM, GFS and ECMWF are in decent agreement with the placement of the synoptic features over the AKPEN, Southcentral and the Gulf Of Alaska. By 00z Saturday, the same models rapidly bring a strong low in the Western and Central Aleutians but there is no consensus for the placement of the surface low on Saturday. The GFS and the ECMWF have more similar tracks, but the NAM is an outlier. This divergence in solutions is already present at 36hrs which does not bode well for the remainder of the forecast package especially for the zones west of 170W as the timing of the gale/storm force winds and precipitation shield is a function of the accuracy of the low. && .AVIATION... PANC...A band of light snow has moved into the region and the ceiling dropped below 5,000 feet over night. Generally expecting VFR conditions however, cannot rule out the possibility of brief MVFR conditions based on the presence of low clouds on the AVHRR satellite image over Knik Arm and portions of the northern Cook Inlet. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... The upper level trough is over the Talkeetna Mountains and into Prince William Sound early this morning. It will continue to move eastward today allowing the much colder air to the west to move into the area. Temperatures will drop though the day over northern Cook Inlet through the Susitna Valley as cloud cover decreases. Some embedded short waves over the next few days may bring in some periods of high clouds which could bump the temperatures up a little as they are overhead, but it will be a generally cold period. Outflow winds will increase today but the pattern is not conducive for extremely strong winds since there is no strong low in the Gulf of Alaska. This will also keep the Matanuska River winds that often occur during cold periods from occurring, at least for the next few days. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today and Friday)... Parts of Southwest Alaska are getting a little bit of snow this morning as a weakening front moves into the coast. The front is producing snow showers over the Kuskokwim Delta near Bethel and south alon gthe coast to Dillingham this morning. Continued weakening is expected for the rest of the morning which will result in the snow showers diminishing as well as the move inland. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies and mainly dry conditions across Southwest Alaska today as temperatures stuggle into the single digits and teens along the Kuskokwim Valley and 20s along the coast. Tonight, another weak low and associated front will restart the snow showers, once again mainly at the coast, though some may drift inland, especially Friday morning. Once again none of the snow showers are expected to be heavy or long in duration. The snow showers will diminish into Friday evening. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2: Today and Friday)... As expected, the Bering remains mostly quiet this morning, however a few small, weak systems are producing snow showers in localized areas, including the Pribilofs this morning. Those snow showers will slowly weaken as they move into the eastern Bering today. Otherwise, scattered snow showers are expected for the rest of the Bering through tonight. More active weather will begin across the Western and Central Aleutians Friday morning in advance of a strong area of low pressure approaching the islands. While at least a mix of snow and rain is expected, temperatures should remain above freezing, so any accumulations of snow will be minor. The primary weather hazard with this storm are strong winds, which will be sustained above 35 mph, especially the closer to the low you get. By Friday evening, the center of the low will have crossed the chain into the Western Bering. Cold advection to the south of the low will cross the Aleutians, producing winds nearing 50 kt as the low peaks in intensity Friday night. Gusts will near hurricane force, and have been included in the forecasts at 60 kt by Saturday morning. The leading front will approach the Pribilofs early Saturday morning. While winds are likely to be at or above 35 kt as it passes, for now it seems enough warm air will be present to at least have a mix of rain and snow, and should it stay all snow, temperatures will be in the mid 30s, which will limit any of the snow being resuspended. Finally, the front will be through the Pribilofs in 6 hours or less, so any reduced visibilities and potential heavy snow will be brief. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)... Beginning the extended period forecast on Saturday evening, there will be a strong storm force low over the western Bering Sea and associated upper low with a developing high amplitude blocking high over Eastern Siberia. Over Southern Alaska, there will be a series of weak upper level waves merging into a consolidated trough. With time, the upper trough over the mainland will deepen in response to the building blocking high over the high latitudes, so this will keep a storm track over the Bering Sea with cold and dry high pressure forming over Southern Alaska. This pattern will last through Tuesday until high uncertainty develops with the development and placement of an arctic low over Alaska. The ECWMF and GFS both show a low, but the GFS favors a quicker transition to southwest progressive flow from the Pacific which would eventually bring in more precip threats as early as Tuesday whereas the ECMWF favors a much colder and longer lasting dry spell, through at least Wednesday. Due to the anomalous ECMWF upper level pattern, and overall high uncertainty with developing arctic lows, this forecast will trend in more precip threats beginning Tuesday. Precipitation threats will likely be all snow given the cold air which will be in place, but for now, there is no strong signal. && .MARINE (Days 3 through 5)... Beginning the extended period marine forecast, the main impacts will be a developing storm force low over the western Bering Sea on Friday. The low track is now highly certain with a general track moving along and then north of Attu Island. The front will extend northward into the Bering on Saturday and may reach storm force as the low tracks north. With an easterly component to the winds, heavy freezing spray may become an issue closer to the ice edge. Another powerful storm force low is on track to move into the western Bering again on Sunday and Sunday night. Confidence with this second low is quite good, and model trends have remained consistent. In the Gulf of Alaska waters, with the storm track over the Bering Sea, there is high confidence that winds will remain well below gale force through the period. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...NONE. MARINE...413 411 175 176 177. FIRE WEATHER...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JPW MARINE/LONG TERM...DL  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 012002 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 1202 PM AKDT Mon Oct 1 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Mainland Alaska continues under a strong upper level ridge this morning with an upper level low over the southwestern Alaska peninsula. A trough remains over the Northwestern Territories and British Columbia as the eastern dominate feature. This set up has developed a Tanana Valley Jet situation for stronger winds along the Tanana Valley of the Interior of Alaska. Delta Junction and the gap flow areas of the Alaska range in the vicinity of Delta Junction will continue to experience wind advisory level gusts through Tuesday afternoon. Elsewhere in the interior gusty wind with highest readings in elevated terrain should remain below advisory levels. Otherwise mostly fair skies across the region, even the north slope has a fairly clear start to the day. && .DISCUSSION... Models for the 01/12Z runs are in fairly good agreement for the short term update today. Ensembles show little disagreement in solutions lasting through Friday afternoon for a higher than normal forecast confidence. Saturday the CMC breaks off a cut off low over the arctic slope where the other models do not. As the models progress normal breakdown in agree occurs and means spread out for lower confidence with the extended. Aloft...at 500 hpa...A strong ridge centered over North Slope will continue through Wednesday night before pinching off into a bubble high over the offshore zones Thursday morning. However, heading into the weekend the Northeast Pacific ridge builds into the southern mainland and reconnects with the offshore high to establish the ridge as the dominate feature over the eastern interior holding on til Monday with a brief wave passing through the ridge. Then the ridge builds back up for the remainder of the extended term of the forecast. Out west the west coast zones will fall under the influence of the ex-tropical system that moves into the Bering Sea and sets up shop on Tuesday and remains circling the Bering Sea into next week blocking up the upper level flow pattern. This will keep the west coast cloudy and damp... along with wind conditions at times. Do expect small crafts to possible gales in the marine forecast at times in the Bering Strait region. Arctic Coast and Brook Range...Fair skies continue today with polar easterly winds ramping up through the period. Recent POES image shows clear skies for a good amount of the offshore region keeping the stratus away for the next several hours. Hi-res guidance keeps clear skies going into the overnight hours. The PABR 12Z RAOB is very dry, other than the shallow inversion layer for the entire sounding. Based on current trends the highest confidence would be to keep the forecast fair, however, always be ready for a quick adjustment if the stratus starts to form and spread out. Do not expect any precipitation for the arctic coast of any significance through the period as high pressure dominates. West Coast and Western Interior...Some clouds along the southwest coast and in the Bering Strait with showers in the Lower Yukon Delta today, spreading north to the Bering Strait tonight. No significant rainfall is expected. In the Western Interior and Kotzebue Sound region expect partly cloudy conditions today and tonight. Northeast to east winds 10 to 30 mph with the strongest winds in the Lower Yukon Delta, and along the coast from the Bering Strait south to include St Lawrence Island. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm during the day with highs in the upper 50s to around 60, but cooling sharply overnight with lows near freezing in the inland areas, and around 40 along the coast. Central and Eastern Interior...Mainly fair skies across the region for the short term of the forecast. Forecast issue remains wind with a Tanana Valley Jet established from the low pressure in the Mackenzie River valley and the high pressure over the central section of the state. Wind advisories remain in place for the typically breezy locations of Delta Junction and the Alaska range gaps through Tuesday. The remaining interior will have breezy non-advisory conditions with higher elevations gusting to 30 mph at times. The ridge aloft will hold off any chance of precipitation until the extended section of the forecast. Temperatures shall remain above seasonal normals on average with only a slow cooling trend noted. The ridge will set up some inversions for the valleys therefore watch out for cold pools in low lying areas. Extended forecast for days 4 to 7...The ridge over the area shifts a bit east, but will still influence the weather over the Interior. Expect a few more clouds moving over the area later in the week as the ridge shifts, but it will be dry in the Central and Eastern Interior, and over most of the Arctic. The remnants of Typhoon Trami will bring clouds and showers to areas west of Ruby through next weekend with most of the showers south of the Bering Strait. It still looks like the first chance for snow in Fairbanks is at least a week away unless we get some dramatic pattern change that the models are missing. && Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...The remnants of Typhoon Trami will move into the southwestern Bering Sea Tuesday. Strong winds will develop in the northeast Bering Sea and Bering Strait that may produce elevated surf on St Lawrence Island Tuesday and Wednesday. && HYDROLOGY...No current issues as rivers continue to slowly fall and no significant precipitation is in the forecast through the weekend. && .CLIMATE... Kotzebue had it's warmest September on record in 2018 with an average temperature of 49.1 degrees. McGrath had it's 4th warmest with 49.2 average temperature, and Nome 7th warmest with 47.2 degrees. Fairbanks came in with a less noteworthy 17th warmest with an average temperature of 48.2 degrees for September. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory for AKZ223-AKZ226. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225- PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ PROTON OCT 18  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK68 PAFC 051419 AFDAFC Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 519 AM AKST Fri Jan 5 2018 .ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS... It is a tale of two domains this morning. In the east, high pressure is building in. This is resulting in offshore gaps winds in the usual locales (Seward, Whittier, Valdez). It is also making for a fairly wide swath of fog and low stratus across much of South Central. This fog shows up very well on POES Satellite imagery and it is banked up along the Chugach and Kenai Mountains in addition to filling in many of the valleys of the Kenai Peninsula. Out west, it is quite a different story. A potent 80 kt finger of the subtropical jet is pushing a strong warm front through the Eastern Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula. Winds along this front are approaching warning-level (75 mph) in places like Cold Bay, but we expect those strong gusts to be limited in extent and frequency. Nonetheless, very gusty southeast winds will continue from the Alaska Peninsula and into SW AK courtesy of this front. Several other surface low pressure centers are developing along this boundary. The one that will eventually emerge as the dominant low into the weekend is over the west central Bering Sea bringing its own swath of gale-force winds along with it. && .MODEL DISCUSSION... Models continue to come into better agreement with the upcoming pattern. Thus, forecast confidence going into the weekend is moderate to high. The most challenging part of the forecast is when the fog and low stratus will ultimately lift around the Anchorage Bowl and the rest of Southcentral. With an increasing offshore gradient and drier air moving in, we are still thinking it will dissipate by later this morning. Otherwise, the only other significant change to the forecast was to continue to increase winds and PoPs along the Gulf Coast this weekend. All models continue to trend a bit stronger with this feature, so we utilized the GFS to add some more detail. The GFS also came into better agreement with the other solutions in handling the parent low over the Bering, so it was used for forecast adjustments out there as well. Yet another storm-force low will make its way towards the Aleutians on Sun. While there are some minor differences with this system, there is a strong general consensus it will bring another round of wind and rain. && .AVIATION... PANC...The fog/stratus continues to lurk around the Anchorage Bowl. As northerly winds continue and usher in drier air, it should continue to dissipate. However, there is still a fair chance it could "slosh" off the Chugach and back over the terminal during the morning hours. Once the fog threat is over, VFR conditions will persist with light northerly winds. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... Upper level high pressure over southern Alaska will slowly drift north today. Gap winds will decrease today as the associated surface high weakens. Some fog and low stratus will linger this morning, then dissipate in the afternoon as the ridge moves away. A front will move into the southwest Gulf today, with precipitation and winds reaching southern Kodiak by late morning and Kodiak City by early afternoon, and then to the north Gulf Coast tonight. A triple point low will develop along this front just southeast of Kodiak Island around midnight tonight. This low will move into the northern Gulf Saturday, setting up south of Seward Saturday evening and remaining nearly stationary through Saturday night while slowly weakening. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)... A potent low is looming down range from Southwest Alaska. A front will push eastward today with robust southeasterly winds across the southern Alaska Peninsula. The low has already bottomed out and the winds for the most part will stay below warning thresholds, with perhaps just a few isolated peak wind gusts up to 75 mph. The front stalls but will still bring precipitation into the coastal areas. The biggest impact will be strong southeasterly winds, particularly in the Bristol Bay area and into the Kuskokwim Delta. As the forecast period unfolds, the front will decay and the remnants of the upper trough will lift northward across Southwest. && .SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)... A pair of lows will impact the Bering. A 950 mb low north of Adak will continue to push north and later wobble northwestward and bring unsettled conditions to the Central and Western Bering. A second low south near Unalaska will trek northeastward and become an open wave. The tight pressure gradient will continue to deliver more gusty conditions today with a peak wind of 64 knots recorded at Cold Bay early this morning. Expect storm/gale force winds for much of the Bering into tomorrow. In association with the aforementioned lows, warm air has advected into the Bering Sea and multiple locations along the chain will see max temperatures in the 40s today and tomorrow. Additional shortwave energy will be ejected from the vortex which will later be in the Western Bering, bringing a shot of cooler temperatures as the trough propagates across the Aleutians. && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)... The weather looking into early next week will be dominated by continued storminess over the Bering Sea/Aleutians with a ridge of high pressure over the Mainland. The most impactful system in this period will begin late Sunday with a storm force low that will move it the Central Bering. This system looks to bring widespread gales to much of the Bering Sea region to the Southwest coast, but likely will not move much further inland as high pressure over the Mainland holds. This should allow for temperatures to remain at or below normal for most of the Mainland with clear skies through Tuesday with impacts largely confined to possibility of outflow winds to the Gulf Coast. This pattern then looks to break down slightly towards the middle of next week as the high pressure begins to slide eastward into the Yukon. This would allow storminess to return to the Southwest Mainland and possibly the Western Gulf, however confidence in this pattern shift is low as the models are typically too quick to break down Mainland ridging in the extended forecast. && .AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Storm Warning 150 155 160 165 180 181 185. Gale Warning 119 120 127 130 131 132 136 138 139 170 173 174 175 176 177 178 179. && $$ SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MSO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PS LONG TERM...DEK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KMTR 292158 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 258 PM PDT Sat Oct 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Lingering showers will remain possible today ahead of our next frontal system set to impact the region tonight into Sunday. Widespread rainfall will return to the North Bay tonight and will spread across the remainder of the region Sunday morning. Another weak system will move through Monday into Monday night. Mainly dry conditions return for the latter half of the upcoming work week. && .DISCUSSION...as of 03:00 PM PDT Saturday... Water vapor imagery shows a distinct 544DM low pressure trough situated offshore of the PacNW/NorCal coast this afternoon. This weather system will dominate the local weather through the coming 24 hours and has already been responsible for bringing increasing southerly winds especially along the coast and over ridgetops (max up to around 37mph at Mount Diablo so far) and light prefrontal rain showers to the the northern counties. Latest analysis shows a weak cold frontal boundary residing just north of the area from Mendocino to Mount Shasta early this afternoon. Precipitable water values with this frontal boundary are not overly impressive (.6-.9" TPW/100-150% of average) so not really expecting to see tremendous rainfall with the initial arrival of the frontal passage. 850-700MB moisture advection indicates rain rates will begin to increase by this evening, predominately over the North Bay, and then continuing to ramp up into the overnight hours. The higher POES derived rain rates are well upstream of the initial frontal passage, so this aligns with model data pushing for heavier rain rates later in the overnight hours. As this system moves across the area, it will gradually taper off and weaken, providing the highest rainfall accumulations for the North Bay where .75-1.5" could fall in the valleys where most populated areas, and 1.5-2.5" are possible for the higher terrain of Napa, Sonoma, and Marin counties. Further south, Oakland and San Francisco will see around half of an inch, and San Jose will be rain shadowed and see a lesser amount. Orographics will help bring locally higher amounts to those areas that favor southerly feeds, including both the Santa Cruz and Big Sur coastal mountain ranges. By the time the system pushes into the Salinas valley, amounts only ranging from a tenth to a quarter of an inch are expected. Most of this rain is expected to fall overnight tonight and into early tomorrow. Lingering rain showers and thunderstorms are possible on Sunday as the core of the upper shifts closer. There will be a brief hiatus from the wet weather Sunday night into early Monday before a different, weaker system descends into the region from the northwest. Days ago, model guidance suggested that the area would remain rain free on Monday, with maybe a hint of rain for the North Bay. Since then, model guidance has been trending towards a wetter/more progressive system that will bring precipitation over more expansive area. It now appears that most areas are now looking at seeing some rain during the prime trick or treating hours Monday evening. That said, precipitation accumulations are not anticipated to be nearly as impressive as previous systems. North Bay valleys will see a third to half an inch of rain, immediate Bay Area could see a tenth to a quarter of an inch, and areas to the south will see less than a quarter. Lingering showers into Tuesday are anticipated. Models have been trending increasingly dry from midweek and beyond as high pressure builds aloft. Further north, low pressure systems will continue to descend into the greater region, but should predominately be deflected to our north. The North Bay could see a few glancing blows from these systems on Wednesday and again on Friday. && .AVIATION...as of 11:11 AM PDT Saturday...Borderline MVFR/VFR at most terminals this late morning. Spotty showers possible through the afternoon. Cigs should lift to VFR in the next couple of hours, except for KSTS and areas of the North Bay, where MVFR/IFR should prevail. Light to moderate southwesterly winds this afternoon. Wind will switch out of the south tonight and become quite gusty early Sunday morning as a result of a cold front approaching the area. Along with the breezy winds, widespread rain will accompany the front. Cigs are expected to lower to MVFR and perhaps IFR ahead of the front, especially under heavier showers that occur. Low to moderate confidence. Vicinity of KSFO...Mainly VFR this afternoon, but intermediate MVFR cigs are possible. Very spotty showers will persist, but overall, mostly dry. Southwest winds around 12 kt this afternoon. Winds turn out of the south by 02z and will be very breezy by 09z. Gusts of 30 kt possible through Sun morning. Winds switch back out of the southwest around 19-20z Sun, but still gusty. MVFR cigs will be likely by 12z Sun, ahead of the front. Low confidence on exact timing. Moderate confidence on winds. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Mainly VFR, but will have to monitor developing low clouds through the day, as forecast models have been struggling with cigs as of late. Westerly/southwesterly winds this afternoon, 10-12 kt, with occasional higher speeds through the Salinas Valley. Wind speeds increase Sunday morning, ahead of a cold front. For the Monterey Bay area, winds will be southeast by midnight tonight, sustained 10-15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kts are possible for KSNS. Expect MVFR cigs to return early tonight for the area, sometime around 02z, but will be dependent on how cigs develop this afternoon. Rain moves in around 15z. Low to moderate confidence. && .MARINE...as of 10:35 AM PDT Saturday...Generally light winds and seas with isolated showers possible today. More widespread rain moves in beginning Sunday morning as a low pressure system draws closer to the Northern California waters. Southerly winds increase tonight as a result. The winds will switch to west to southwest and decrease Sunday night. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tday...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP AVIATION: BAM MARINE: BAM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook and twitter at: www.Facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KLWX 041010 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 610 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build southward into the region through early Friday. Hurricane Matthew may track along or offshore the southeast U.S. and mid-Atlantic coasts over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dense fog advisory issued for western MD and the Shenandoah valley in eastern WV. Obs and an AVHRR pass at 0856 UTC show widespread fog now with 0SM at some locations. A few clouds are evident across the area early this morning while patchy dense fog is being reported at Luray. Sfc dewpoints are significantly lower attm than 24 hrs ago. As a result, widespread dense fog is not anticipated attm but will continue to monitor. High pressure will build swd into the region from northern New England today. Sfc flow becomes onshore later today with low clouds expected to move in from the east during the day. A few showers can't be ruled out over the Chesapeake Bay and adjacent MD counties. Marine layer deepens tonight with bkn-ovc low clouds expected. Patchy light drizzle will be possible along the Appalachians and Blue Ridge mtns where model soundings show a saturated layer from sfc up to 850 mb. Low cigs Wed morning will be slow to lift out Wed beneath a strong subsidence inversion. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Partial clearing takes place early Wed evening with model soundings showing potential for dense fog. Fog dissipates Thu yielding a nice autumn day under high pressure. Fair weather expected Thu night. Attm, model soundings do not show potential for fog. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure across the Mid-Atlantic region will be retreating to New England Friday- Friday night as Hurricane Matthew moves north of the Bahamas. Over the past 24 hours there has been a westward shift in the forecast track for Hurricane Matthew. This brings Matthew closer to the FL/SC/NC coastline Thursday-Saturday. An upper level trough will move across the Great Lakes this weekend. The speed and amplitude of the trough will play a major role in the track of Matthew as it moves towards the Mid-Atlantic region. Details of tropical storm or hurricane impacts from Matthew are unknown at this time across the Mid-Atlantic region. The cloud shield from Matthew will result in dense cloud cover across the region this weekend. Easterly flow is also expected across the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend. Please consult the National Hurricane Center for the most up to date forecasts regarding Hurricane Matthew. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mainly VFR early this morning except at KMRB where IFR vsbys are being reported. Onshore flow today will result in bkn/ovc 030-040 cigs. MVFR/IFR cigs likely tonight then are slow to lift Wed. Better fog potential Wed night. VFR conditions Thu. Flight restrictions possible this weekend as onshore flow persists. Will have to watch Matthew for potential impacts to the terminals this weekend. && .MARINE... Winds expected to strengthen later today with SCA conditions likely persisting into early next week. Will be adjusting SCA into Wed. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for portions of the waters late this week. Will have to watch Matthew for potential impacts to the waters this weekend. Refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest on Matthew. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal anomalies will increase Tuesday through the end of the week due to a developing onshore flow. Minor flooding is likely during this time. Will also have to watch the track of Matthew because that has the potential to add to the flood threat this weekend. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest information on Matthew. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ003-502. VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ027>031. WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ050>053- 055-502-504. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>532-538>540. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ533-534-537-541>543. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LFR NEAR TERM...LFR SHORT TERM...LFR LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...HSK/LFR MARINE...HSK/LFR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LFR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 041126 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 226 AM AKST FRI MAR 4 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION AGAINST THE 04/06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS AND THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD THE LAST FEW DAYS. THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS OUT TO THE MID RANGE...BUT THE PATTERN OVER MAINLAND ALASKA BECOMES PRETTY BENIGN BEYOND 100 HOURS OR SO. WILL USE THE SAME METHODOLOGY THAT WE HAVE USED THE LAST FEW DAYS AND MAKE ONLY MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN NUDGE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...533 DAM HIGH NEAR 80N 135W WILL SLIDE SOUTH TO 500 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES BY MONDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC. A 515 DAM LOW OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM DRAINAGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWEST TO BE OVER BRISTOL BAY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND OVER DUTCH HARBOR BY SUNDAY MORNING. A 538 DAM HIGH OVER SIBERIA WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE PRIBILOFS ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST WITH THE RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA MOVING WEST TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING. A 503 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC NEAR 48N 150W WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO BE NEAR 48N 140W BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT 509 DAM...THEN DISSIPATES MON. AS THE LOW OVER THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM SLIDES SOUTHWEST THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE INTERIOR TONIGHT...EXTENDING TO THE NORTHWEST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY...AND PERSIST INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. AT 850 HPA...ONE LAST DAY OF COOLING...MAYBE ANOTHER DEGREE...THEN THE SLOW WARM UP BEGINS AND CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE WILL START GETTING PINCHED A BIT TODAY AS A 976 MB LOW MOVES UP THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE COAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA...AND THE 1031 MB HIGH IN THE HIGH ARCTIC DRIFTS A LITTLE SOUTH AND RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES STRENGTHENS A BIT. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD ON INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT STARTING LATE SUNDAY. THE PATTERN OVER THE MAINLAND FALLS APART TUESDAY AND WINDS OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND WILL BE LIGHT. THE DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO BE OVER THE WEST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. SATELLITE...SPORT AVHRR NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 04/0634Z AND 04/0815Z SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AND THE BERING STRAIT REGION. USING IT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE GOES MVFR/IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 04/0845Z THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF MVFR OVER THE WEST COAST AND ARCTIC...AND THE ALASKA RANGE...WITH A PATCH OF IFR OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC PLAINS. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WINDS PICKING UP ON THE NORTHEAST COAST AND OVER THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA TIGHTENS UP. STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW WILL BE EAST OF NUIQSUT. WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 25 MPH RANGE. TEMPERATURES DROPPING ANOTHER DEGREE OR SO THROUGH SATURDAY THEN A SLOW WARMING TREND AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE NORTHWEST COAST AND WINDS SWING AROUND TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WILL ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ZONES 203 AND 204 DUE MAINLY TO THE VISIBILITY ISSUES. WIND CHILL COULD APPROACH 50 BELOW IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AROUND BARTER ISLAND ON SATURDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS...OTHERWISE CLEARING TODAY AS THE RIDGE OVER SIBERIA PUSHES A BIT EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A BIT MORE...UP TO 10 DEGREES COOLER...OUT HERE AS THE COLD AIR IS DRAGGED SOUTH IN THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH IN SIBERIA AND THE LOW MOVING OVER BRISTOL BAY. WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE BERING STRAIT WILL PICK UP TO GALE FORCE WITH WINDS NEAR 50 MPH ON THE BERING STRAIT COAST. DO NOT EXPECT TOO MANY ISSUES WITH BLOWING SNOW BUT WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE BERING STRAIT COAST TO COVER THE STRONG WINDS AND PERIODS OF POOR VISIBILITY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...CLOUDS DEVELOPING AND THICKENING OVER THE INTERIOR AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NIKOLAI AREA. EXPECT SOME FLURRIES AROUND THE AREA...BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION IF ANY FOR MOST AREAS. THE LOW MOVES FAIRLY RAPIDLY OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR BY LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS PICKING UP AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND LOCAL BLOWING SNOW OVER SOME OF THE SUMMITS IN THE INTERIOR. MODELS INDICATE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE YUKON FLATS. NORTH WINDS ALSO PICK UP A BIT IN THE PASSES AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH WILL OCCUR OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ213. GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240- PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 031245 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 345 AM AKST THU MAR 3 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 03/06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE MID RANGE...AND ARE EVEN TRENDING THE SAME DIRECTION IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. STILL NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM RUN TO RUN SO AGAIN WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN NUDGE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...533 DAM HIGH NEAR 80N 140W WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS TO BE 500 NM NORTH OF BARTER ISLAND BY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST TO MACKENZIE BAY BY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND YUKON TERRITORY. A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE ARCTIC COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A 515 DAM LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE AND LIES FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC. THE 515 DAM LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST TO BRISTOL BAY BY LATE FRIDAY...THEN OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA BY LATE SATURDAY. A 534 DAM HIGH CENTER OVER BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OVER THE PRIBILOFS THIS EVENING...AND THEN BE ABSORBED INTO A 538 DAM HIGH OVER SIBERIA EARLY FRIDAY. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND PUSH TO THE NORTHWEST COAST BY LATE SUNDAY WHILE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. AT 850 HPA...GRADUAL COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 13 CELSIUS BELOW OVER FAIRBANKS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF FAIRBANKS. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR STARTING SUNDAY. SURFACE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE STATE. A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT THAT IS CHANGING AS THE 1037 MB HIGH NEAR 78N 140W WOBBLES AROUND A BIT AND SLIPS SOUTHWEST TO 77N 155W BY LATE FRIDAY...AND 966 MB LOW NEAR 48N 150W PERSISTS BUT SWINGS A 974 MB LOW INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE WITH STRONGER NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS DEVELOPING IN MANY AREAS OF THE STATE. A 1030 MB HIGH OVER SIBERIA WILL PERSIST WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA TODAY SLOWLY SLIDING TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SATURDAY MORNING. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY MOVE WEST TO BE OVER THE WEST COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. SATELLITE...SPORT AVHRR NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 02/0655Z IS AGAIN FILLING IN THE GAP TONIGHT BETWEEN THE VIIRS AND MODIS IMAGES. USING THE AVHRR IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE GOES MVFR/IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT 03/0900Z THEY INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER STRATUS THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTON SOUND ACROSS KOTZEBUE SOUND THEN OVER THE ARCTIC COAST...PLAINS...AND BROOKS RANGE TO MACKENZIE BAY...AS WELL AS OVER THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR NORTH OF FORT YUKON. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...NOT SEEING ANY REASON FOR THE STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG AND FLURRIES TO MOVE ON...SO WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE THE FIRST COUPLE PERIODS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHTER WINDS INLAND. WINDS WILL START PICKING UP TONIGHT OVER THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WINTER WEATHER ON FRIDAY AS WINDS KICK UP NEAR 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL SLIGHTLY THROUGH SATURDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS FLOATING AROUND THE COASTAL AREAS. A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING IN THE BERING STRAIT AND KOTZEBUE SOUND REGION AND SOME DENSE FOG IN THE BERING STRAIT WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE INTERIOR AREAS. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH LIGHTER VARIABLE WINDS INLAND. COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS THE COLD AIR IS PULLED SOUTH BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE STATE. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS...BUT A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH OF FAIRBANKS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND YUKON FLATS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AS FAR AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. INCREASING WINDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ACROSS THE STATE. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 50 MPH. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WARMING A FEW DEGREES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 021130 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 230 AM AKST WED MAR 2 2016 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...GOOD INITIALIZATION AT 06Z AGAINST THE SURFACE ANALYSIS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE MID RANGE. THE SEMI PERSISTENT PATTERN THAT WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE PAST TWO AND A HALF MONTHS DOES TRANSITION A BIT WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE STATE THIS WEEKEND...BUT THEN IT TRANSITIONS RIGHT BACK EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT SEEING MUCH CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM RUN TO RUN SO WILL STICK TO JUST MAKING MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST DATABASE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN NUDGE THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...536 DAM HIGH NEAR 80N 160W WILL SLIDE EAST A BIT AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ARCTIC COAST TODAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE STARTS DRIFTING BACK SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. A 527 DAM LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MACKENZIE BAY TODAY AND MOVE WEST IN THE TROUGH OVER THE ARCTIC COAST BEFORE MERGING WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE INTERIOR THURSDAY. A 537 DAM HIGH CENTER OVER YAKUTAT MOVES WEST OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY LATE THIS EVENING...THEN WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY FRIDAY MORNING. A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE STATE THURSDAY WITH A 521 DAM LOW OVER KANTISHNA THURSDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST WITH THE LOW MOVING SOUTH OVER BRISTOL BAY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY MORNING. RIDGING WILL BUILD WEST OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH. AT 850 HPA...GRADUAL COOLING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK AND WILL SEE THE TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND 15 CELSIUS BELOW OVER FAIRBANKS BY SATURDAY. THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. WEAK WARM WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR STARTING SUNDAY. SURFACE...BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT THAT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS THE 1042 MB HIGH NEAR 78N 135W PERSISTS BUT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...A 1027 MB HIGH OVER SIBERIA BUILDS TO 1036 MB BY FRIDAY MORNING NEAR WRANGEL ISLAND...AND THE 970 MB LOW NEAR 45N 148W DRIFTS NORTH WITH A 984 MB LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 48N 135W THURSDAY AND MOVING NORTH INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FRIDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE STATE. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE WEST AS THE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES NORTH. SATELLITE...SPORT AVHRR NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS AT 02/0717Z IS FILLING IN THE GAP TONIGHT BETWEEN THE VIIRS AND MODIS IMAGES AND THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS WITH THE LITTLE LOW SPINNING UP AROUND MACKENZIE BAY AND SPREADING SOME SNOW TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST. STRATUS EXTENDS WEST TO THE NORTHWEST COAST AND ALSO COVERS MOST OF THE ARCTIC PLAIN...THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE...AND EVEN THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR NORTH OF FORT YUKON. ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE..STRATUS...PATCHY FOG...A FEW FLURRIES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHTER WINDS INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL SLIGHTLY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...A FEW FLURRIES AROUND THE SEWARD PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...OTHERWISE MOST AREAS WILL BE CLEARING OR MOSTLY CLEAR. SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE KOTZEBUE SOUND AREA WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING AS THAT WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OFFSHORE ALONG THE COAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH WITH LIGHTER VARIABLE WINDS INLAND. COOLING TREND OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD AIR IS PULLED SOUTH BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE. CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS. A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS TO THE NORTH OF FAIRBANKS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND YUKON FLATS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT AS FAR AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT...BUT INCREASE LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 50 MPH. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WARMING A FEW DEGREES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245. && $$ SDB MAR 16  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KCHS 150904 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 404 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH 1003 HPA LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF MOBILE BAY PER 15/08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. CYCLOGENESIS IS BEING DRIVEN ALONG A SHARPENING WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY BY A POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE DIGGING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST TODAY WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. A LARGE CORRIDOR OF STRONG FORCING IS POISED TO TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A POWERFUL SUBTROPICAL JET COUPLES WITH INCREASING DPVA AHEAD OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AN INLAND MOVING COASTAL FRONT. THIS DEEP LAYERED FORCING FOR ACCENT WILL INTERACT WITH A RIBBON OF PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL INFLOW TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TODAY...WHICH WILL IMPACT ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE GREATER RAIN CHANCES SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A DRY SLOT BEGINS TO PROPAGATES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS CRITICAL TO DETERMINING HOW FAR INLAND THE WARM SECTOR WILL PENETRATE AS THE COASTAL FRONT MOVES WEST. GENERALLY FAVOR THE TIMING/POSITION DEPICTED BY THE 15/00Z ECMWF...WHICH SHOWS THE CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CSRA AND MIDLANDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE EXITING INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. THE GFS LOOKS A BIT TOO FAR OFFSHORE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS MORE OF A MILLER-B DOUBLE BARREL CYCLONIC STRUCTURE...WHICH IS NOT CURRENTLY SUPPORTED GIVEN THE LACK OF A STRONG INLAND COLD AIR DAMMING REGIME. WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK INLAND...EXCEPT THE WARM SECTOR TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 60S WELL INLAND WITH MID-UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST...WARMEST IN THE SAVANNAH- LUDOWICI-DARIEN CORRIDOR. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR A ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES BY. SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE CERTAINLY IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE STRONG FIELDS THAT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS LOW-LEVEL JETTING TAKES HOLD...BUT NEAR SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEANINGFUL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. HOWEVER... THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS THAT A SMALL CORRIDOR OF WEAK INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA...WHICH COULD CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT 1 OR 2 LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN THEREFORE NOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS AREA...BUT THE OVERALL RISK IS ACCESSED TO LOW. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS SUBSIDENCE/DNVA OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY. CLEARING WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY BY EARLY EVENING WITH MOST OF THE RAIN EXITING THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA BY 8-10 PM. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL SCOUR OUT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN WITH THE DRY SLOT...THE PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT WILL KEEP THICK CIRRUS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SUNNY SKIES...WESTERLY FLOW AND POSSIBLY SOME DOWNSLOPE FROM THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL GIVE US ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE MID 60S AND APPROACHING 70 IN SOME PARTS OF GEORGIA. MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE 00Z MODELS HAVE PLACED MORE QPF OVER OUR AREA SO BUMPED UP THE POPS AND THE QPF...THE HIGHEST BEING IN OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES. COULD HAVE GONE LIKELY POPS IN SOME OF THESE SPOTS BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF TO GIVE THE DAY CREW A CHANCE TO SEE WHAT THE 12Z MODELS SHOW AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES TO OUR EAST AND THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PASSES WELL OFFSHORE...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY FROM OUR AREA. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE MORNING AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 50S. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...USHERING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S...CLOSE TO NORMAL BECAUSE THE MAIN COLD AIR ADVECTION APPEARS TO ARRIVE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. MONDAY...DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXPANDS TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND THE LOWER 50S ACROSS PARTS OF GEORGIA. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE COLD WITH TEMPERATURES COMPARABLE TO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TRENDING UPWARDS ON WEDNESDAY AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE LONG RANGE FORECASTS. OPTED TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE ONGOING DRY FORECAST ON THURSDAY UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LIGHT RAIN WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SUGGESTING THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR AT KCHS WITHIN AN AXIS OF ENHANCED PWATS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW-END MVFR CIGS TO ENCOMPASS BOTH TERMINALS BY MID-MORNING WITH RAIN REDUCED VSBYS TO 3-4SM. THERE IS A RISK FOR IFR OR LOWER VSBYS...BUT HIGHEST AT KCHS WHERE HEAVIER RAINS ARE EXPECTED. LLWS WL BE AN ISSUE AT BOTH TERMINALS ROUGHLY 14-20Z WHERE 1500 FT WINDS PEAK 40-45 KT. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON ON AT KSAV AND LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AT KCHS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST OFFSHORE. && .MARINE... TODAY...VERY TRICKY AND COMPLICATED MARINE FORECAST FOR TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INLAND TODAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE MARINE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE. A STRONG 925 HPA LOW-LEVEL JET UPWARDS OF 45-55 KT WILL SETTLE IN LATER THIS MORNING...BUT SURFACE MIXING WILL BE SUBDUED BY THE STABLE NEAR SURFACE ENVIRONMENT INDUCED BY THE COLD SHELF WATERS. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG WHERE THE LATEST USABLE NOAA-18 AVHRR SST ANALYSIS FROM 13 JANUARY PLACED THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WITHIN 40 NM OF THE GEORGIA COAST. MIXING PROFILES IN THIS AREA WILL SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE...THUS A GALE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS AREA THROUGH SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A LARGE RANGE OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG GIVEN THE LARGE SST GRADIENT THAT IS PLACE. EXPECT WINDS AS HIGH AS 20-25 KT WESTERN PORTIONS WITH 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT EASTERN PORTIONS. ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 15-20 KT WITH HIGHER CONVECTIVELY INDUCED GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL BUILD 4-7 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 7-10 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...MAINLY FOR SEAS...WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR BOTH SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE ZONES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED FOR THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE ZONE PER COORDINATION WITH WFO JACKSONVILLE. CONDITIONS JUST LOOK TOO MARGINAL IN THIS AREA FOR AN ADVISORY ATTM. TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A QUICK-MOVING STORM SYSTEM COULD MOVE CLOSE TO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM... ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. && .HYDROLOGY... STRONG UPPER FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH A RIBBON OF PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL INFLOW TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TODAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1-1.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH AN AREA OF 2-2.25 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE TODAY...BUT MAINLY FOCUSED THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA. THE LATEST CPC SOIL MOISTURE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE GROUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA REMAINS SUPERSATURATED BELOW THE FIRST INCH OF TOP SOIL WITH ANOMALIES RUNNING 160+ PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JANUARY. MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE IS A RESIDUAL FROM THE HISTORIC FLOODS THAT OCCURRED BACK IN OCTOBER. GIVEN THE SATURATED SOIL MOISTURE PROFILE AND CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL IN ABOUT A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD TODAY...THERE WILL BE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR FLOODING...DESPITE THE RELATIVELY LOW STORM TOTAL QPF. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL THEREFORE BE ISSUED FOR CHARLESTON-BERKELEY- DORCHESTER COUNTIES UNTIL SUNSET. COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THAT THERE ARE SIGNALS IN SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS THAT A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL ACROSS THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA WITHIN AN HOUR OF AN ALREADY ELEVATED HIGH TIDE. THIS WOULD ELEVATED THE FLOOD RISK EVEN MORE FOR PARTS OF WEST ASHLEY...DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...MOUNT PLEASANT AS WELL AS NORTH CHARLESTON. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A STRENGTHENING ONSHORE WINDS COMBINED WITH ALREADY SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES COULD PUSH TIDE LEVELS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR NEAR 7.0 FT MLLW WITH HIGH TIDE LATE THIS MORNING. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST TIDE LEVELS SHOULD FALL JUST SHORT OF SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE CLOSE. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. && .CLIMATE... DAILY RAINFALL RECORDS FOR 01/15/2016... KCHS 1.40/1966. KCXM 1.53/1966. KSAV 1.39/1966. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ044-045-050-052. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ352. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ350. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374. && $$ ST/MS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KHGX 290241 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 941 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .DISCUSSION... WITH A SURFACE HIGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WERE OCCURRING EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED AS OF 9 PM. THE POES SOUNDER DOES SHOW HIGHER MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS SHOULD HELP WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT TO BE MAINLY ONCE AGAIN WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON...MAINLY FROM KCLL TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BEFORE MID MORNING. 40 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/ UPDATE... ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COMBINATION OF THE SEA BREEZE...BAY BREEZE...AND AN WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. HAVE UPPED POPS TO 10 PERCENT AND INCLUDED MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH THE MID EVENING TIME FRAME. 40 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 540 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/ DISCUSSION... AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR SE TX TAF SITES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS... BEFORE A RETURN OF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO KCLL/KSGR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN AREAWIDE AFTER 15Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE... LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BECOMING S-SE ON WED AFTN. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 78 98 78 99 78 / 10 10 10 20 20 HOUSTON (IAH) 78 99 78 99 78 / 10 10 10 30 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 82 92 82 92 82 / 10 10 10 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...40 AVIATION/MARINE...43  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS61 KALY 040939 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 435 AM EST MON JAN 4 2016 .SYNOPSIS... THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON WILL BE WITH US TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF ALBANY INTO ALBANY ITSELF...IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 435 AM EST...THERE WERE TWO MAIN AREAS OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...ONE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF ONTARIO WORKING INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND CATSKILLS. DBZ VALUES WITH THESE WERE GENERALLY IN THE 5-15 RANGE...PROBABLY PRODUCING LOCAL DUSTINGS. THE OTHER MAIN BATCH OF SNOW SHOWERS...APPEAR TO BE THE RESULT OF LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE OFF CHAMPLAIN BEING DRIVEN SOUTHWARD AND THEN FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPSLOPE WIND (NORTHWEST WIND AGAIN THE TACONICS). THIS BAND WAS FROM ABOUT MECHANICVILLE SOUTHEAST TO POESTENKILL. DBZ VALUES WERE HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND BAND...CLOSER TO 25. WE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONCERNING THIS BAND WHICH LOOKS TO BE PRODUCING EXTREMELY LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES OF ABOUT 3/4 INCH PER HOUR IN THIS AREA. MODELS WERE NOT HANDLING THIS BAND WELL AT ALL. OTHER FLURRIES WERE NOTED IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AN ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUED TO SLIP SOUTH OF I-90... AND WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND EVEN AROUND ZERO WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY BY SUNRISE. LOCALLY LOOK FOR LOWS AROUND 20...LOWER TO MID 20S FURTHER SOUTH... WHERE AT THIS TIME WERE STILL JUST ABOVE FREEZING. AS OF THIS WRITING WE HAVE NOT OFFICIALLY DROPPED BELOW 20 THIS WINTER SEASON...AGAIN MAKING IT THE LATEST EVER TO DO SO. BY SUNRISE...WE PROJECT A LOW JUST BELOW 20 DEGREES AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. WIND CHILLS WILL REACH -10 OR A LITTLE LOWER IN THE ADIRONDACKS BUT REMAIN JUST ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. LATER TODAY...AS THE FLOW BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC AND THE AIR DRIER...ALL SNOW ACTIVITY WILL END LEAVING US WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. DESPITE THIS HOWEVER...AS H850 TEMPERATURES PLUNGE TO AROUND -20C...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE LITTLE IF ANY TODAY...HOLDING IN THE TEENS JUST NORTH OF ALBANY... AROUND 20 IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...MID 20S FURTHER SOUTH. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND 5-15 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO ADD A BITE TO THE CHILL. THIS LOOKS TO BE FIRST DAY WHERE OFFICIALLY THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL NOT BE ABOVE FREEZING THIS WINTER SEASON AT ALBANY. THIS WILL MAKE IT THE LATEST SUCH OCCURRENCE EVER...EASILY BREAKING THE OLD RECORD FOR THE LATEST FREEZING DAY... WHICH WAS CHRISTMAS DAY 2012. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. IT WILL BE DRY BUT BECOMING FRIGID. A BREEZE IN THE EVENING LOOKS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT YIELDING TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. AREAS THAT WILL SEE A SNOW PACK OVER AN INCH LOOK TO GET CLOSE TO OR EVEN A BIT BELOW ZERO. AREAS FOR THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS. WITH THE DIMINISHING WIND IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW AS IF MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE WIND CHILLS REACHING WIND ADVISORY LEVELS BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE. THIS WILL BE BY FAR THE COLDEST READINGS OF THE WINTER THUS FAR ...THE COLDEST SINCE MARCH 8TH OF LATE YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING THE FLOW TO BEGIN TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. H850 TEMPS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO WARM PAST -10C...AND THEN WARM TO AROUND 0C BY LATER WEDNESDAY. SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK INTO THE 20S FROM ABOUT GLENS FALLS SOUTHWARD. THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT ONLY IN THE TEENS. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ENOUGH OF A SOUTHERLY BREEZE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING A WHOLE LOT... GENERALLY BACK INTO OR HOLDING IN THE TEENS... ALTHOUGH A FEW SHELTERED VALLEYS WITH SNOW COVER COULD EASILY DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND A CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE BACK INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL BE OUR SOUTH. LOWS THAT NIGHT WILL BE A TRICKY TO FORECAST. IF THE WIND DIMINISHES AND THE SKY IS MOSTLY CLEAR...TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY GET AS COLD AS TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF WE PICK UP MORE IN THE WAY OF WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS AND HOLD ONTO A LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MIGHT NOT FALL OUT OF THE 20S. RIGHT NOW...TOOK THE COMPROMISE SOLUTION WHICH YIELDS LOW TEMPERATURES TEENS IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS...NEAR 20 ALBANY SOUTHWARD. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST AS WE GO FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR WEATHER. LOWS IN THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S WITH SOME TWENTIES IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. BY FRIDAY NIGHT A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA. OVER RUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION TYPE BASED ON 00Z GFS AND 00Z/EURO USING TOP DOWN METHODOLOGY PRODUCES A MIXED BAG. INITIALLY STARTING AS SNOW AND SLEET FRIDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN EARLY SATURDAY...TO MOSTLY RAIN BY LATER SATURDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE BY LATER SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES BUT MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THAT 00Z/GFS SOLUTION IS ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF 00Z/EURO WITH TRACK OF SURFACE WAVE. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS ALSO ABOUT 300 MILES FURTHER EAST IN THE 00Z/GFS. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR SUNDAY BECAUSE BOTH MODELS HAVE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THIS LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. NORTH NORTHEASTWARD. 00Z/EURO WOULD TRACK THE LOW WEST OF INTERSTATE 81 ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO BY MONDAY MORNING...WHILE 00Z/GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. QUITE A SPREAD. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EXPECTED ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS 20S TO LOW 30S AND HIGHS 30S TO NEAR 40. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 06Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KPSF WHERE WE CARRIED A TEMPO THROUGH 10Z FOR MVFR CIGS (AT KALB) AND BOTH VSBY AND CIG AT KPSF (DUE TO LAKE CHAMPLAIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS). OTHERWISE VFR CIGS LOOK TO BECOME SCATTERED LATER TODAY. A WEST WIND WILL ULTIMATELY BECOME NORTH BEFORE 12Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES AS AN ARCTIC BOUNDARY...WHICH WAS OVER KALB AS OF 06Z...WILL SLIP SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES BEFORE 12Z. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10KTS...BUT GUST OVER 20KTS AS THE ARCTIC FRONT WORKS THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS...VISIBILITY WILL BE UNRESTRICTED TODAY. OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... NO HYDRO ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ASIDE FROM SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WORK WEEK. COLDER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR THE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO SLOWLY RECEDE...WITH SOME ICE FORMATION MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS EVEN COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT THIS LOOKS LIKE A POTPOURRI OF PRECIPITATION TYPES INCLUDING SOME RAIN MAINLY SOUTH. FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. MA...NONE. VT...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HWJIV NEAR TERM...HWJIV SHORT TERM...HWJIV LONG TERM...SND AVIATION...HWJIV HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 090943 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 143 AM AKDT SAT MAY 9 2015 .DISCUSSION... MODEL DISCUSSION... CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR ON HANDLING OF THE MAJOR FEATURES OUT THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS CYCLE. NAM/GFS HAVE GENERALLY SIMILAR AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...BUT GFS HAS SOMEWHAT HEAVIER AMOUNTS OVER ZONE 222 AND WESTERN ZONE 220. GFS MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE FAIRBANKS AREA TODAY LOOK TOO HIGH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD CLOUD COVER SHOULD CUT DOWN ON AFTERNOON HEATING...NAM MOS FOR FAIRBANKS LOOKS MORE REALISTIC. ELSEWHERE IN THE INTERIOR... NAM AND GFS MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE RUNNING CLOSER TOGETHER. UPPER AIR... AT 500 MB...A STRONG RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUKON TERRITORY INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND SOUTHWARD. A SECONDARY LOBE EXTENDS FROM MAYO WESTWARD ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE...AND WILL SWING NORTHEASTWARD TO COME INTO PHASE WITH THE MAIN RIDGE BY SUN AFTERNOON...LEAVING A GENERALLY WEAK FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. A 532 DAM LOW CENTERED NEAR 56N/146 W IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL WOBBLE AROUND THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT WITH LITTLE NET CHANGE IN POSITION...THEN MOVE TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY MON AFTERNOON WHILE FILLING TO A WEAK 546 DAM CENTER. A VERY WEAK RIPPLE WILL SPLIT OFF FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW CIRCULATION TO BE NEAR THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER YUKON VALLEY BY SUN MORNING. A SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE BERING SEA AND NORTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH SUN...WITH SEVERAL WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD. SURFACE... A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE LIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...WEAK 1006 MB CENTER IS OVER THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY. THE MAIN CENTER IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO ZONE 224 BY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UPPER YUKON VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT AS IT FILLS TO 1010-1012 MB. A TROUGH NORTH OF THE ALASKA WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON... PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR SUN. A WEAK 1000 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ANADYR WILL MOVE TO NEAR CAPE SCHMIDT ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIBERIA PENINSULA BY LATE THIS MORNING...THEN WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH SOUTHEAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON. A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR DALL POINT WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA BY LATE THIS EVENING...BUILDING TO 1019 MB. ARCTIC COAST... AS OF 07Z...NOT MUCH STRATUS/FOG IS CURRENTLY BEING INDICATED BY POES NPP-VIIRS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB IMAGING. BARROW IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY SITE REPORTING FOG. THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT AS LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS WIND FLOW COULD BECOME VARIABLE OR LIGHT WESTERLY SUN NIGHT AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF FOG. CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR... RAIN WILL SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUN NIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SPOTTY. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN ZONE 221 AND IN NEARBY AREAS OF ZONE 219 AND WESTERN ZONE 220. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS COULD BE 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GFS MOS HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR FAIRBANKS THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TOO HIGH...CLOUD COVER SHOULD CUT DOWN ON THE SOLAR HEATING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL BEING REPORTED BY THE FORT GREELY MESONET...THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MORNING BUT REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH VERY SLOWLY LATER TONIGHT INTO MON. WEST COAST/WESTERN INTERIOR...SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN ZONE 216 TODAY AND TONIGHT...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. EXTENDED OUTLOOK DAYS 5-8...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE INTERIOR INTERIOR AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REBUILDS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ALASKA AS WELL. && .FIRE WEATHER... HIGHER HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. NO RED FLAGS ANTICIPATED OVER THE WEEKEND. && .HYDROLOGY... A QUIET BREAKUP CONTINUES ON THE MAIN RIVERS. NO VIIRS RIVER ICE SATELLITE IMAGING WAS AVAILABLE FRI DUE TO CLOUD COVER. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210. BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220. && $$ RF MAY 15  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KSEW 232219 AFDSEW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA 220 PM PST FRI JAN 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS...EXPECT RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA ON SATURDAY WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GIVE DRY AND MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY LATER TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WARM FRONT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NE ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WARM FRONT APPEARS FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON OFFSHORE WATERS TO A 999 MB LOW NEAR 41N 139W. THIS SECOND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NE ACROSS THE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RAINFALL RATES WITH THE FIRST WARM FRONTAL FEATURE HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.35 INCHES PER HOUR OVER THE WESTERN OLYMPIC PENINSULA. KLGX RADAR SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON. POES AMSU RAINFALL RATES CENTERED NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE SECOND FRONT AT 42N 139W AT 20Z ARE BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1 INCH PER HOUR. THE 20Z HRRR MODEL BRINGS THIS BATCH OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST FACING OLYMPICS BETWEEN 05Z AND 09Z AND GIVES ABOUT 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THAT PERIOD TO THE AREA WEST OF QUEETS. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THEN COME TO AN END FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS THE SECOND WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER WASHINGTON. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE MILD. DESPITE THE DRIPS OF PRECIPITATION AND THE CLOUDS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S ACROSS THE AREA. AS CLOUDS DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM OVER THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTH INTERIOR. THEN SUNDAY SHOULD BE A VERY NICE DAY FOR LATE JANUARY AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 60 DEGREES UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE MORE FOG AROUND THE AREA. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE WARM AGAIN...HOW WARM WILL DEPEND ON WHEN FOG BURNS OFF MIDDAY. BUT ANOTHER DAY NEAR 60 LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ALBRECHT .LONG TERM...A VERY WEAK FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO SNOW LEVELS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH...6000 FEET ON TUESDAY FALLING TO AROUND 4000 FEET BY THURSDAY. IF YOU LIKE RIDGES AND MILD WEATHER THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR A REDEVELOPING RIDGE LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW AND QUITE MILD CONDITIONS FOR LATE JANUARY. ALBRECHT && .HYDROLOGY...THERE IS ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING ON THE SKOKOMISH RIVER NEAR POTLATCH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO DRIVE THE RIVER ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. ELSEWHERE...FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ALBRECHT && .AVIATION...WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT THEN MOVE NORTH ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. AT THE SURFACE MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AIR MASS MOIST AND STABLE. FRONT IS ALREADY VISIBLY WEAKENING ON RADAR. CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM LATE THIS MORNING WITH MOST CEILINGS 2-3K FT AND MOSTLY VFR VISIBILITIES. MORE CLOUD DECKS EXIST BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW. EXCURSIONS INTO BOTH IFR AND VFR ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING. MODELS SHOW A SECONDARY IMPULSE 06Z-12Z THAT WILL LIKELY BRING LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...PROBABLY 1-2K FT WITH 3-5SM IN RAIN. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH. KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. MAINLY MVFR TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR VFR SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WIND 4-8 KT WILL INCREASE TO 8-12 KT THIS EVENING. CHB && .MARINE...A WARM FRONT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THEN MOVE NORTH ON SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LIGHT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES OVER ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EASE ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. KING TIDES...THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDES OF THE YEAR...ARE OCCURRING. THE FORECAST HIGH TIDES FOR SEATTLE THIS MORNING AND SATURDAY MORNING ARE 13.2 FEET. MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW STARTS AT 13.5 FEET. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE WAS QUITE HIGH THIS MORNING...AROUND 1030 MB...WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS GAVE A NEGATIVE TIDAL ANOMALY OF 0.8 FEET DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AT 710 AM THIS MORNING. THE HIGH TIDE ENDED UP BEING ONLY 12.4 FEET. SIMILAR METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AT 750 AM. THERE WILL BE A NEGATIVE TIDAL ANOMALY AND THE UPSHOT IS MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW IS NOT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY EITHER. CHB && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...NONE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL STRAIT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS GRAYS HARBOR BAR. && $$ WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KLOX 062111 CCA AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 110 PM PST TUE JAN 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH LOCALLY BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER AND CLOUDIER CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...ONE MORE 80 DEGREE DAY FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPS DROP ALL THE WAY TO THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND *GASP* 60S BY THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE IS STARTING TO BREAK DOWN AND THIS WILL DO A COUPLE THINGS. FIRST, IT WILL WEAKEN THE OFFSHORE GRADIENTS WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF DOWNSLOPE WARMING, EVEN FOR TOMORROW. SECOND, IT WILL PERMIT THE INTRUSION OF A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM AN UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH OFF THE BAJA COAST. WE'LL START SEEING HIGH CLOUDS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY, BUT THICKENING UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THU, TO THE POINT WHERE THE SUN LIKELY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY OBSCURED THU AND LIKELY FRI AS WELL. SO THE SKY FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT A CLOUDIER SKY. WHILE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT 700-300 MB MOISTURE THERE IS VIRTUALLY NOTHING BELOW THAT SO AT THIS POINT REALLY NO CONCERN FOR PRECIP. HOWEVER, IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE POES AMSU SATELLITE IS ESTIMATING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL JUST OFF SRN BAJA STRETCHING SOUTH TO BELOW 20 DEG NORTH LAT. SO IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH MOVING FORWARD. AT THE VERY LEAST A LOT OF CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS, THOUGH STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND TO COOL TEMPS A BIT FURTHER. THE BIG MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD BE EXITING BY LATER FRIDAY BUT SKIES WILL STILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY FROM THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF. LOOKS LIKE MODELS HAVE TRENDED EVEN DRIER THAN EARLIER RUNS AND IT NOW APPEARS EVEN LESS LIKELY FOR ANY SORT OF PRECIP WITH THE TROF THIS WEEKEND. RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING BUT NO SIGNIFICANT OFFSHORE FLOW TO BOOST TEMPS MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER 70S. LOOKING FARTHER OUT, THE LONG WAVE PATTERN MAINTAINS A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND TROFFING FOR THE EASTERN US, SO PROSPECTS FOR PRECIPITATION THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS ARE DIM AT BEST. && .AVIATION...06/1800Z. AT 1725Z...THERE WAS AN INVERSION BASED AT 100 FEET AND TOPPING OUT AT 2500 FEET AND 22C AT KLAX. CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP ALL SITES VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 20% OF LLWS AT KVNY/KBUR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. NORTHEASTERLY WIND AROUND 5 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THRU THIS MORNING...BEFORE WEAK SEA BREEZE KICKS IN AROUND 22Z. KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF LLWS THRU THE TAF PERIOD (ESPECIALLY 18Z TO 22Z TODAY). && .MARINE...06/900 AM PST. FOR THE OUTER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR THE INNER WATERS...WEAK FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM POINT MUGU TO SANTA MONICA WHERE LOCALLY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LIKELY (WITH LESS THAN A 20% CHANCE OF REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS). && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET SYNOPSIS...KITTELL WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 052025 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1225 PM AKDT MON MAY 5 2014 .DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR...SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY...AND THE NORTHERN ALASKA WILL SEE SOME SLIGHT REBUILDING NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND TUE...THEN WEAKEN WED AND THU AS THE MAIN RIDGE RECEDES EASTWARD INTO CANADA. 1733Z POES ORBIT SHOWS THE DEEP UPPER LOW CENTER ABOUT 350 MILES NORTH OF BARROW. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD...TO 600 MILES NORTH OF BARROW BY 4 AM TUE AND TO 800 MILES NORTH OF BARROW BY 4 AM WED. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS NOW LOCATED OVER EASTERN SIBERIA. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE CHUKCHI AND NORTHERN BERING SEAS BY 4 AM TUE...MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINLAND WED INTO WED EVENING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL ARRIVE ON THE WEST COAST WED NIGHT THEN EXIT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH THU NIGHT. ON THE SURFACE...984 MB SURFACE LOW 350 MILES NORTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE TO 600 MILES NORTH OF BARROW BY 4 AM TUE FILLING TO 988 MB. BY 4AM WED THE LOW WILL MOVE TO 800 MILES NORTH OF BARROW WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CENTRAL PRESSURE. BLUSTERY WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS IN ZONES 201 AND 202 AND ARE EXPECTED TO END BY 6 PM THIS EVENING. TWO COLD FRONTS LIE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR...PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BECOME SPOTTY BY TUE MORNING. AS THE FIRST OF TWO SHORT WAVES MOVES EAST...ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE MORE RAIN ALONG THE OLD FRONT. THE SHORT WAVE WILL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE WEST COAST...WESTERN ARCTIC COAST AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR TUE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY SCATTERED TUE NIGHT. IN THE SHORT TERM OVER THE WEST COAST... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND IN ZONES 207-208-EXTREME WESTERN ZONE 205. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE WARMER AIR OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST INTERIOR...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW 60S...MIN RH 25-30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT HOWEVER...SO NO RED FLAGS. ELSEWHERE...MIN RH REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS POSSIBLE POSSIBLE NEAR THE ALCAN BORDER IN ZONES 224-226 THU AFTERNOON. && .HYDROLOGY... RIVER WATCH TEAM REPORTED THAT THE ICE JAM THAT WAS ABOUT 20 MILES UPSTREAM OF CIRCLE RELEASED THIS MORNING AND THE BREAKUP FRONT MOVED THROUGH CIRCLE. A NEW ICE JAM HAS FORMED DOWNRIVER FROM CIRCLE AND WATER LEVELS AT CIRCLE ARE RISING. A FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR...FREEZING LEVELS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 1500 THROUGH TONIGHT...RISING TO 1500-2500 FT TUE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR...ABOUT 6000-7000 FT. THIS IS CONSIDERABLY BELOW THE 10000 FT FREEZING LEVELS DURING THE RECENT WARM SPELL WHICH WILL RESULT IN SLOWER SNOWMELT RUNOFF. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE YUKON RIVER AT CIRCLE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...AKZ201-AKZ202. BRISK WIND ADVISORY...PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240. && $$ RF MAY 14  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KBRO 040922 AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 422 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2014 .SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/...WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING THAT EXTENDS UPWARD INTO RIDGING OVER THE PANHANDLES AND BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS VERY LOW THROUGH THE COLUMN ACROSS THE REGION AND APPEARS TO BE THAT WAY FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO OUR SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND AVHRR/SSMI ESTIMATES. TEMPS ARE DROPPING ABOUT AS FORECAST INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND WITH A STRONG RADIATION INVERSION DECOUPLING THE SURFACE. TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOW RH AND CLEAR SKIES. A SEABREEZE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ABLE TO SET UP AND MODERATE MAX TEMPERATURES A BIT ALONG THE COAST AS WILL THE SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY OF THE FLOW. GIVEN THE VERY DRY STATE OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AIRMASS AM NOT EXPECTING A MAJOR INCREASE IN DEWPOINT TODAY AND ANOTHER WARM AND GENERALLY PLEASANT DAY IS EXPECTED WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST BREEZE. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE UP A FEW DEGREES FROM TONIGHT AND THE LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WHICH MAY REQUIRE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO DECOUPLE AND SURFACE WINDS DROP BUT RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS AND LIGHT WINDS WITH FEW CLOUDS REMAINS THE FORECAST. MONDAY...TROUGHING WILL BEGIN DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US ON MONDAY AND RIDGING OVER THE GULF WILL INTENSIFY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE NOTABLE INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS WITH SPEEDS LIKELY AROUND 18 TO 23 MPH WITH GUSTS PUSHING 30 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE UP WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. HIGHS SHOULD SET UP IN THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 90S IN THE WESTERN CWA WITH SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND TRAJECTORY LIKELY MODERATING THE COAST BUT LEAVING THE WESTERN ZONES OPEN TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...500 MB RIDGING WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER DEEP SOUTH TX MON NIGHT INTO TUES. A MAJOR 500 MB WEST COAST TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE DESERT SW ON TUES. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL THEN OPEN UP AND WILL PUSH FURTHER NORTHEASTWARDS WED AND THURS EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A SECOND TROUGH AXIS WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THIS ONE AND WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FRI AND EARLY SAT EXITING THE REGION LATE SAT. THE GFS SHOWS MUCH MORE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER DEEP SOUTH TX AHEAD OF THESE TROUGHS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A DECIDEDLY DRIER SOLUTION THROUGH DAY 7. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION WITH GENERALLY 20 TO 30 % POPS IN PLACE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS MEX MOS HAS BEEN PRETTY STABLE. FOR TEMPS...THE LOW LEVEL WAA WILL BE PERSISTENT AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST TROUGHS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW THE TEMPS TO WARM UP STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD DESPITE THE INCREASING CLD COVER AND POPS WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGHS. WILL GO CLOSER TO THE WARMER ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE VERSUS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MEX NUMBERS. && .MARINE...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE TODAY DUE TO INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. WINDS ON THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD BE MORE MODERATE WITH MODERATE SEAS. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT ON THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON THE LAGUNA MADRE MONDAY DUE TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS. SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURS...THE SURFACE PGF WILL BE STEADILY STRENGTHENING AS THE 500 MB TROFFING DIGS CLOSER TO THE TX COASTLINE LATER THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY PUSH THE MARINE CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SCEC/SCA LEVELS FOR BOTH THE BAY AND GULF WATERS. && .FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 35 PERCENT AND 20 FOOT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 12 TO 16 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE UP SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS UP SLIGHTLY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 66 85 70 / 0 0 0 0 BROWNSVILLE 88 64 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 91 62 89 68 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 93 65 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 65 94 67 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 68 82 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM...60 GRAPHICAST/UPPER AIR...CAMPBELL  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KRAH 020722 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 321 AM EDT WED APR 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 240 AM WEDNESDAY... A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...DOWNSTREAM OF THE PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO EJECT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE NC-VA BORDER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TODAY: WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...FORECAST THICKNESSES ARE PROGGED TO BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY WITH THE CONTINUED WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...12 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT: AS THE FRONT SETTLES ALONG THE NC-VA BORDER...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...HOWEVER IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE BE ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT...WHERE NON-MEASURABLE SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR AS THE 00Z/02 NAM SHOWS DEEPER SATURATION OWING TO WEAK S/W ENERGY CRESTING ATOP THE RIGE ALOFT. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 250 AM WEDNESDAY... THU: A COLD FRONT OVER THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SOUTH IN BACKDOOR FASHION EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TONIGHT...TO A POSITION NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE VA BORDER BY THU MORNING - 50 TO 100 MILES FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO. WHILE THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS A COLD ONE OF ARCTIC ORIGIN - WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BENEATH THE CENTER OF THE 1024 HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING - AN EQUALLY STRONG HIGH HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. EQUILIBRIUM BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL MEET RESISTANCE AS IT TRIES TO DRIFT INTO CENTRAL NC...AND AS SUCH...THE FARTHER SOUTH FRONTAL POSITIONING OF THE NAM...SOUTH OF US HWY 64...IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. THE QPF SOLUTION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEAR THE VA BORDER. A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS ONE INDICATED BY THE EC AND GFS...SUCH THAT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER...ROUGHLY ALONG AN ARC FROM KDAN-KETC- KHAT...AND WHOSE POSITION WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCED LESS BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGER SCALE PROCESSES/EQUILIBRIUM AND MORE BY MESOSCALE ONES DRIVEN BY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS COOL (MID 30S-MID 40S FAHRENHEIT) MID-ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS PER AVHRR-OBSERVED SST DATA. THE RESULTANT HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASED BY UP TO A FEW DEGREES (INTO THE LOWER 80S) SOUTH THE OF THE EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION...BASED UPON THE ANTECEDENT WARMTH THAT RESULTED IN HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S ALREADY ON TUE...WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO THOSE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST NEAR THE VA BORDER (IN THE MID-UPPER 70S). BOTH THE 00Z/2ND NAM AND EC ALSO GENERATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN VA AND NORTHERN NC...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY AROUND THE TOP OF A 318-319 DM RIDGE OVER THE FL PENINSULA. MOISTURE IN BOTH MODELS IS MOSTLY OF THE MID LEVEL VARIETY...SO THE PROSPECTS OF RAINFALL - OTHER THAN PERHAPS A SPRINKLE - IS LOW...PARTICULARLY SINCE THE PARENT ALREADY LOW AMPLITUDE SHOULD ONLY FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE RIDGE OVER THE SE. THU NIGHT: THE FRONT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD THROUGH VA THU NIGHT...IN ADVANCE OF A CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MIGRATE ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. MILD LOW MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED. FRI AND FRI NIGHT: OVERALL MINIMAL SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES...THOUGH NWP GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. CONTINUED WARM FRI...WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S NW PIEDMONT WHERE MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ESPECIALLY AFTER NOON...RANGING TO PERSISTENCE LOWER 80S IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. DESPITE AROUND 500 J/KG OF INSTABILITY FRI...AND SIGNIFICANT INLAND PENETRATION OF THE SEA BREEZE OWING TO AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE FLOW...BUFR FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A MID LEVEL CAP AND ASSOCIATED CINH BETWEEN 100-150 J/KG. AS SUCH...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY CUMULUS TO BREAK THE CAP UNTIL BETTER DYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT...BUT STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40-50 KT LLJ...ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS. IN FACT...IT IS LIKELY THAT A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EVOLVE FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST STATES...IN CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE AND PARENT S/W TROUGH/UPPER LOW...AND THE REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC MOSTLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS...OR PERHAPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN WITH BOTH TIME AND WITH EASTWARD EXTENT...OWING TO BOTH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND THE WELL TO OUR NW PASSAGE OF THE PRIMARY HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. NONETHELESS...STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MORE LIKELY WEST OF THE TRIANGLE WHERE THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION WILL BETTER COINCIDE WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 315 AM TUESDAY... SAT THROUGH SUN: THE FRONT MAY LINGER IN THE COASTAL PLAIN TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THERE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON SAT...BUT LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES IN WNW POST-FRONTAL FLOW WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL. STILL WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S SAT NIGHT. COOLER SUN - IN THE 60S - IN NE FLOW AROUND 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WHOSE TIMING IS FASTER BY ABOUT 12 HOURS VERSUS WHAT IT APPEARED YESTERDAY. NWP GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL INDEED BECOME MORE ACTIVE AND BUCKLE NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES LATE SUN- MON. THE ASSOCIATED CONFLUENCE ALOFT INDUCED BY THE BUCKLING OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF A DAMMING HIGH EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN GOM. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER IN A STRENGTHENING REGIME OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE SURFACE HIGH...SUN NIGHT-MON. CAD AND RAIN WILL LIKELY ENSUE FOR SUN NIGHT-MON. BRIEFLY DRY IN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TUE...BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A L/W TROUGH IN THE EASTERN STATES MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. && .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 130 AM WEDNESDAY... 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASE LATE IN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AS AN WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SAGS SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...STALLING ALONG THE NC/VA BORDER OVERNIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF THE AREA...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10KTS OR LESS. OUTLOOK: OUTSIDE OF SOME EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS...EXPECT PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...MIGHT BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS AS OVERRUNNING PRECIP SPREADS INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE && $$ SYNOPSIS...NP NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...CBL  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KBRO 160843 AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 343 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...THE BASE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXHIBITING SOME SPIN OVER WEST TEXAS...WITH JET CIRRUS EVIDENT MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST TEXAS...MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE CWA. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY ABOUT MID DAY...WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. HIGH TEMPS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY TODAY...BUT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS IN THE UPPER VALLEY...NEAR 70. THE MAIN IMPACTS TODAY WILL BE EARLY MORNING DENSE FOG NEAR THE COAST...AND SOME WIND...ALTHOUGH NO ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN BUT NOT OVERLY SO. THUS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. SEE THE SEPARATE PARAGRAPH ON FIRE WEATHER BELOW. A SECOND PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF THE PLAINS TODAY TO HELP REINFORCE THE ONE ALREADY OVER WEST TEXAS. THE ENHANCED TROUGH WILL EXTEND BACK OVER SOUTH TEXAS BY TONIGHT AND ITS BASE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT AS WELL. ISLD SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OR OVER THE MARINE AREAS AS THIS HAPPENS BUT DEEP DRY AND COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE A STABLE THERMO DYNAMIC PROFILE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...A FULL 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AS PWAT AND COLUMN MOISTURE PLUMMETS. PWAT BY MONDAY SHOULD BE A HALF INCH OR LESS AND IT WILL BE A SPRING LIKE DAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV WITH DAY TIME HIGH TEMPS STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...FROM THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S BUT UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND WITH MODERATE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS. IN GENERAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY...WHILE UPSTREAM RIDGING MOVES IN BEHIND AN EXITING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. RAINFALL CHANCES...WHICH ARE ON THE LOW SIDE AND ARE MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA...WILL VANISH QUICKLY LATER TODAY. .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND A MARKED INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY DRY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 850/700MB ONLY ADDING TO THE DRYING AND WARMTH OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. RIGHT AT THE SURFACE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER BUT THAT WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE PATTERN PRETTY FAVORABLE FOR A HOT DAY AND SHOW THAT IN THE GRIDS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE VALLEY AND 90 OR HIGHER IN ZAPATA COUNTY. WINDS MAY GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AMID A DEEP MIXING LAYER. LOW LAYER RIDGING GENERALLY INTENSIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS PRESENTING THE AREA WITH A MORE EASTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. 03Z AVHRR SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE PRODUCT SHOWS THE SST GRADIENT IS NOT QUITE AS PRONOUNCED TODAY AS IT HAS BEEN IN THE LAST FEW...BUT STRONG NORTH WINDS PRODUCED BY THE SUNDAY COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY INCREASE UPWELLING TIGHTEN THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ADVECTION FOG ENVIRONMENT AND HAVE ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY MORNING IN COASTAL LOCATIONS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY MODERATE OUR TEMPERATURES JUST A BIT WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS AROUND 60. BY THURSDAY 300/500MB RIDGING IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY EVIDENT TO OUR SOUTH CENTERED AROUND 17N WHILE OVER THE CONUS MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH SUBTLE LOCAL JET MAXIMUMS CONTINUE. BROAD LOWER LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS ALLOWS OUR LOW LAYER THICKNESS VALUES TO INCREASE AND CONTINUES A MODERATE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. ECMWF STILL PAINTS A WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY BUT IT REMAINS WEAKER STILL...AND HAS LITTLE SUPPORT IN THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PICTURE. GFS ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GFS KEEP THE FRONT FROM BEING A PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER. CONTINUED THAT IDEA IN THE FORECAST ALTHOUGH WE DO GET AN INCREASE IN OUR DEPTH OF MOISTURE ON THURSDAY WITH 850MB RH VALUES CLIMBING. WE WILL HAVE PERSISTENT 750MB CAPPING THAT WILL KEEP DEEPER SHOWERS/STORMS FROM DEVELOPING BUT CONTINUED THE INHERITED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR NOW. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE MODERATING EFFECTS OF THE ONSHORE BREEZE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE AS OUR LOWER LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES DO THE SAME. LOW LEVEL RH VALUES FALL AND WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH ECMWF/GFS SHOWING AROUND A 590DM RIDGE A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO OUR SOUTH WITH A ZONAL JET PATTERN TO OUR NORTH. 18Z GFS MENTIONED A FRONT SATURDAY/SUNDAY WITH 00Z ECMWF HOLDING ON TO A HINT OF IT BUT FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT IN THE ADVERTISED PATTERN WE WILL STAY FRONT FREE THROUGH SUNDAY AND KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. /68-JGG/ && .MARINE... TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...DENSE FOG IS IN PLACE ON SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND SHOULD REMAIN SO UNTIL MID MORNING AS WINDS STAY NEAR CALM. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FROM MID TO LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN WHEN ANY REMAINING FOG WILL BE SWEPT AWAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN FAR OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 10 FEET OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH MUCH IMPROVED WEATHER TO FOLLOW ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY STILL PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... PERSISTENT SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING AND BECOME STRONG AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THE GULF OF MEXICO AND DURING THE DAYTIME ON THE LAGUNA MADRE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MORE MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH GENERALLY MODERATE SEAS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...WHILE WIND AND FUEL DRYNESS CRITERIA WILL BE CRITICAL TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE...THAT IS NOT MEETING...THE CRITERIA REQUIRED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. NONETHELESS...FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN NORMAL WITH AN ELEVATED THREAT OF ENHANCED WILDFIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 52 66 51 / 20 10 10 0 BROWNSVILLE 76 52 67 50 / 20 10 10 0 HARLINGEN 76 50 67 48 / 20 10 10 0 MCALLEN 75 50 70 48 / 20 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 49 71 48 / 30 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 71 54 65 53 / 20 10 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ256-257. GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ130-132- 135-150-155. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ170. GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ170. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ150-155-175. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 54/68  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KBRO 190937 AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 337 AM CST WED FEB 19 2014 .SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/...FOG AND OVC STRATUS WILL SCATTER/MIX OUT BY MID THIS MORNING AS THE WIND MACHINE STARTS CRANKING NEAR THE COAST. BREEZY AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MID MORNING AS PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL OVER THE PLAINS DUE TO AN INCUBATING STORM SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPS LOCALLY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE UPPER VALLEY. IN FACT...WINDS WILL STAY MDT TO BREEZY TONIGHT...AND AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE PROPPED UP BY THE UNDERLYING DEW POINTS...IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE BREEZY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE A FRONT AND HIGHER PRESSURE MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS ENROUTE TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV. WINDS MAY SHIFT TO NORTH IN THE UPPER VALLEY AND RANCH LANDS BY THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE MEAGER...WITH WIND AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BEING THE MAIN ISSUES. CLOUDS WILL WAX AND WANE ON THE WIND AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX... BUT WILL...IN GENERAL...BE MORE PROBLEMATIC ALONG THE COAST...AS WILL OVERNIGHT FOG. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE MARCH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY NORTH WINDS OVER LAND AND STRONG NORTH WINDS OVER THE GULF AND LAGUNA MADRE APPEAR TO BE THE FIRST NOTABLE IMPACT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 03-06Z TIMEFRAME FROPA FOR THE VALLEY. NUDGED IT A LITTLE FASTER THAN GUIDANCE CONSENSUS THOUGH WITH STRONG UPPER SUPPORT BEHIND THE FRONT AND A POWERFUL PARENT TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AT THE TIME OF FROPA HERE. CONSIDERED A GALE WATCH FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS GIVEN THE STRONG PROJECTED COLD ADVECTION AND PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A 1024MB HIGH PILES IN BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THE GRADIENT IS A LITTLE TOO MARGINAL FOR SUCH A LONG LEAD TIME WATCH WITH COLD SSTS. AN 03Z AVHRR SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS SHOWED 55 DEGREE NEARSHORE WATER...65 DEGREE OFFSHORE WATER...AND ABOUT A 65 TO 68 DEGREE LAGUNA MADRE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS GUSTS TO ABOUT 37KTS ON THE OFFSHORE WATER...25 TO 28 KNOTS ON THE NEARSHORE AND 28 TO 32 KNOTS ON THE LAGUNA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THE SOURCE AIRMASS FOR THIS SYSTEM IS IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...SO A MAJOR PLUNGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW WHAT IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY SHOULD SEE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD IN A WAY THAT WILL GIVE US MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW. ECMWF IS A LITTLE BREEZIER THAN THE GFS BUT WENT WITH THE MORE MODERATE GFS GIVEN THE FAIRLY WEAK EXISTING GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP QUITE A BIT THOUGH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 OUT WEST. ANOTHER 6 TO 8 DEGREE BUMP IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD FOLLOW WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST OVERNIGHT PERIODS CLEARING IN THE MORNING BEFORE CUMULUS CLOUDS REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE DEPTH IS TOO LIMITED FOR ANY PRECIP MENTION. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY COLUMN MOISTURE GETS A LITTLE BIT DEEPER AS 850MB LAYER WINDS STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH. ADDED A LITTLE BIT OF COASTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING ON MONDAY BUT LIMITED THE POP TO THE MORNING OVER LAND AS MID LEVEL CAPPING SHOULD KEEP DEEPER SHOWERS AT BAY. MORE PERSISTENT ACTIVITY LOOKS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF BUT COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE PRETTY LIMITED. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES TOWARDS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BUT MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS PRETTY ZONAL BY THAT TIME AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT MAY STALL SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE HELP OF A COLD CONTINENTAL AIRMASS BEHIND IT BUT ITS STILL GOT ITS WORK CUT OUT TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH. WITH THE MOISTURE POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AT LEAST SOME WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE ZONAL FLOW ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT OVER MOST OF THE AREA. && .MARINE... NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER BOUT OF MARINE FOG IS PLAGUING THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND LAGUNA MADRE THIS MORNING...WHILE ALSO SOCKING IN THE TOWN OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS MORNING...MIXING OUT THE FOG...BUT PERSISTENCE THROUGH DAWN IS EXPECTED. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE GULF TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY EVENING. AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AND FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ON THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BECOME ROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THEY SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EAST WHILE BECOMING MORE MODERATE SATURDAY AND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY. LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE EXPECTED ONCE SEAS DIMINISH BEHIND THE THURSDAY NIGHT FRONT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 67 80 61 / 10 10 10 10 BROWNSVILLE 77 67 82 61 / 10 10 10 10 HARLINGEN 80 67 85 58 / 10 10 10 0 MCALLEN 84 67 88 55 / 10 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 87 66 89 53 / 0 10 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 67 76 62 / 10 10 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ130-132- 135-150-155. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV SHORT TERM...54 LONG TERM...68-GIBBS UPPER AIR/GRAPHICAST...CAMPBELL  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KBRO 151957 AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 157 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...ADVECTION FOG PERSISTS AT SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND THE IMMEDIATE NEAR SHORE...ELSEWHERE THE FOG BANK HAS LIFTED TO LOW CUMULUS CLOUDS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO THE MID TO LOW 70S AND A SOUTHEAST BREEZE HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AS LEE TROUGHING ESTABLISHES OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS/EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH. DEW POINT VALUES ARE ON THE WAY UP NOW INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. REST OF THE AFTERNOON...VERY NICE AFTERNOON WITH PLEASANT TEMPS AND LIGHT BREEZE. WILL FEEL MORE HUMID THAN WE HAVE BEEN USED TO AS OF LATE AND MECHANICAL MIXING PROBABLY WILL NOT HELP THAT MUCH AS MOISTURE APPEARS TO INCREASE WITH HEIGHT THROUGH THE LOWEST 100MB OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FOG WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON THE EASTERN HALF OF PADRE ISLAND AND ON THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A 1042Z SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS FROM AN AVHRR PASS SHOWS GULF WATER TEMPERATURES TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 66 TO 69 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WITH A LAYER OF 55 TO 58 DEGREE WATER CLOSER TO THE COAST. WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF OUR WINDS TONIGHT OVER THIS COOLER WATER AND OUR CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH FAIRLY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH HEIGHT BELIEVE THE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF ADVECTION FOG IS LIKELY. TEMPS WILL BE RESISTANT TO FALL QUICKLY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT WINDS BUT SUSPECT DEW POINT VALUES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE THAT WAS MIXED UPWARDS THROUGH THE DAY SETTLES BACK TOWARDS THE SURFACE AND ADVECTS IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR INLAND THIS FOG WILL WORK BUT ADDED PATCHY FOG AREA WIDE AND DENSE FOG TO THE NEAR SHORE WATER AND AREAS AROUND THE LOWER LAGUNA MADRE. SUNDAY...EXPECTING WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE STRONGER. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM WITH ANOTHER HALF STEP OR SO OF HUMIDITY IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTIER WITH SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FOG MAY STILL HOLD IN SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT...WARM AND BREEZY WITH A SLIGHT SLACKING OF WIND SPEED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT. FOG MAY STILL BE AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...A ZONAL MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY...LIMITING SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FROM PLAYING A BIG ROLE FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF STAY TOGETHER MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH DIFFERENCES BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT AFTER THIS LONG TERM FORECAST. FOR NOW...DID NOT TAMPER WITH THE INHERITED PACKAGE TOO MUCH. THE ZONAL PATTERN WILL RESULT IN WARM TEMPS AND AN ALMOST SUMMER LIKE WIND REGIME...WITH MODERATE OR BETTER SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS EACH DAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. WITH PLAINS PRESSURE DEEPENING IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN SYSTEMS TRACKING WEST TO EAST...WINDS WILL EXHIBIT SOME VARIATION. BREEZY CONDITIONS MONDAY... AND BREEZY TO WINDY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON WEDNESDAY THE LOCAL WIND MACHINE WILL CLICK ANOTHER NOTCH HIGHER WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE CAMERON WILLACY EASTERN HIDALGO TRIFECTA AREAS... AS ANOTHER ONE OF THOSE CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVES WEST TO EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER...AND DEEPENS PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH INTO EAST TEXAS AGAIN ON THURSDAY...BUT AS BEFORE LITTLE IMPACT WILL BE REALIZED IN THE RGV. TO SUMMARIZE... IT WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONAL WEATHER WITH MORE WIND AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK. LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY IN THE WEEK BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TYPICAL CU AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE WINDIEST DAY LOOKS TO BE MID WEEK...BUT A WIND ADVISORY IS NOT GUARANTEED JUST YET. && .MARINE... NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST EAST OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXPECTED. PREVAILING MARINE CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF FOG WILL BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS TONIGHT... ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE. EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE LAGUNA MADRE ON SUNDAY WITH MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND SEAS ON THE GULF THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SIGNIFICANT MARINE WEATHER WILL BE SPARSE DURING THE LONG TERM...AS THE MID LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO EXERCISE CAUTION OR LOW END ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY...BUILDING SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET AS WELL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING AHEAD OF A PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS WILL TRANSIT WEST TO EAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH LITTLE INTERRUPTION TO THE MDT SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING PLAINS LOW PRESSURE...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...AND THEN STRONGER WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE GULF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 62 79 64 79 / 0 0 0 0 BROWNSVILLE 61 80 64 83 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 62 82 62 83 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 63 85 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 60 87 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 65 72 65 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 68/54/MARTINEZ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KBRO 192036 AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 236 PM CST THU DEC 19 2013 .SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTENING IN EARNEST TODAY AHEAD OF A DIGGING SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW. RAPID SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THAT LOW THAT IS LEADING TO STRONG LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN SIERRA MADRE AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGIONS. WINDS ARE RESPONDING IN KIND WITH SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS PUSHING 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE PUSHING INTO THE LOW 80S THIS HOUR WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES. COLD WATER...A RESULT OF UPWELLING WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE COAST IS KEEPING WINDS DOWN IN THE NEARSHORE...CONFIRMED BY A TABS BUOY ABOUT 12 NM OFFSHORE AND SUGGESTED BY A 1638Z ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWS ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ABOUT 20 NM OFFSHORE BUT LIGHTER WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST. TCOON AND ASOS SITES SHOW ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON THE LAGUNA MADRE WHERE WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM THE LAND ARE LEADING TO BETTER MIXING. THIS TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL IS SHOWN NICELY IN THE 1148Z PASS OF THE AVHRR SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE PRODUCT. TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FLORIDA WILL GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. CONFIDENT WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 8 TO 15 MPH RANGE OVER LAND ALL NIGHT WITH THAT SETUP. WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS WHETHER THE OFFSHORE ZONES WILL RETURN TO ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TONIGHT. NAM12 AND HIGH RES ARW/NMM KEEP THE WINDS IN THE 17 KNOT RANGE WHILE THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF SHOW STRONGER WIND FIELDS OVER THE WHOLE COASTAL WATERS WHICH COULD BE CORRECTED FOR THE MARINE LAYER NEARSHORE. WITH THE LOCAL GRADIENT CREATED BY THE NEARSHORE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL AND A GUT FEELING THE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MODERATED BY INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES AND PERSISTENT WIND. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS SEA FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT IT DOES NOT AT THIS POINT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT...IE DENSE FOG. FRIDAY...TODAY HAS BEEN JUST A LITTLE WINDIER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED AND THAT GIVES ME SOME PAUSE FOR TOMORROW. WITH LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO I BELIEVE THE POSSIBLITY OF WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT THE WESTERN LAGUNA MADRE TO HIGHWAY 281 IS INCREASING. WILL NOT HOIST FROM THIS SHIFT BUT DID BUMP THE WIND FORECASTS UP TO AT OR NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS A DECENT CHUNK OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH INCREASING THICNKESS VALUES AND SUNSHINE FILTERED BY SCATTERED CUMULUS. THE BEST SURGE OF 65 TO 70 DEGREE DEWPOINT AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN MARINE ZONES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK AND CONTINUED THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST AND THE HWO AS THE POSSIBILITY OF DENSE FOG WILL START PICKING UP ALONG THE COAST WHEN THIS WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR RIDES OVER THE COLD NEARSHORE WATERS. FRIDAY NIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT APPROACHES ITS PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NAM/GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE SHOW 45 TO 50KT WIND SPEEDS AT 925 AND 850MB OVERNIGHT BUT A STRONG INVERSION...CAUSED BY TWO DAYS OF DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...KEEPS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEPARATED FROM THE STRONGEST WINDS. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES A STEADY OVERNIGHT WIND IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS NOT REACHING THE FULL POTENTIAL A 50KT 925MB JET WOULD ASSUME. MARINE WINDS MAY MIX A LITTLE BETTER...AND WITH THE INTENSITY OF THE GRADIENT THE NEARSHORE WATERS WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING MORE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. FOG POTENTIAL REMAINS AS WELL AS THE MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES TO PUMP WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR IN OVER THE COOL NEARSHORE WATERS. /68-JGG/ .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS ON SATURDAYAND THEN SLIDES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER TX AND SHIFTS NORTHEAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. A LLJ MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY WITH 30 TO 40 KT WINDS...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG INVERSION...SO DO NOT EXPECT A WHOLE LOT OF MIXING DOWN OF THE WINDS. HAVE MAINTAINED BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY BY SATURDAY EVENING. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...BUT FLOW ALOFT REMAINS FROM THE SW...KEEPING THE AREA WELL CAPPED. WITH THE CAP IN PLACE...HAVE ELECTED TO NOT INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AND HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COLDER AIR WONT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER A SECONDARY NORTHERLY SURGE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL STILL REACH INTO THE 70S...BUT AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TAP MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S. MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS AND 40S ELSEWHERE. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE AN ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE. && .MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS FROM 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT DUE TO ROUGH SEAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE LAGUNA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. FRIDAY NIGHT STRONG WINDS MAY OVERSPREAD ALL OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY DUE TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND INCREASED SEAS DUE TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TEXAS WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND A SECONDARY SURGE OF STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL AFTERWARDS...WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODIC SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS IMPROVE ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ170-175. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ130-132-135. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 68/58/MARTINEZ  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KBRO 191427 AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 827 AM CST THU DEC 19 2013 .DISCUSSION...DATA FROM A TEXAS AUTOMATED BUOY SYSTEM ABOUT 8 MILES OFFSHORE SHOWS WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 8 KNOTS THIS MORNING. A 1148Z AVHRR SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE PRODUCT SHOWS ABOUT A 10 TO 15 DEGREE F DIFFERENCE IN WATER TEMPERATURE OVER THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS AND THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. NOAA BUOY 42020 HAS BEEN RIDING CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE BEING MET THERE. THE LAGUNA MADRE IS MORE CHALLENGING...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH HEATING FROM THE LAND TO ALLOW 20KT SUSTAINED WINDS TO BE A HIGH ENOUGH POSSIBILITY TO KEEP THE ADVISORY IN PLACE GIVEN THE STRONG AND BUILDING LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT. SO HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY FOR NEARSHORE WATERS AND KEPT IT...AND THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS WAS. /68-JGG/ && .MARINE...COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AID KEEPING WIND SPEEDS DOWN OVER THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS TODAY AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS HAS BEEN CANCELLED. MARINERS GOING EAST HOWEVER WILL EXPERIENCE A SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS AS THEY GET INTO WARMER WATERS AROUND 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL ALSO BUILD TO THE POINT SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS. /68-JGG/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST THU DEC 19 2013/ DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION TEMPO GROUP FOR POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH 15Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIFT THEN SCATTER OUT BY LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE BY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE LATEST BRO VAD WIND PROFILE ALONG WITH THE BRO UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOW WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET. WILL MENTION NON CONVECTIVE LLWS FOR ALL TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS DECREASE A LITTLE THIS EVENING WITH THE POSSIBLE RETURN OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CST THU DEC 19 2013/ SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/...LATEST BRO VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATES 35 KNOTS OF WINDS AT 1000 FEET COURTESY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL INTERACT WITH THE LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING AND BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-69E/HWY 77 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LATEST MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT WINDS COULD BE A FEW KNOTS LESS ON FRIDAY THAN TODAY. HOWEVER... WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE PERSIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AT MANY LOCATIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW BUT A STREAMER SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE COAST IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE WIND AND A COLD FRONT. EXAMINATION OF MAV AND MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SATURDAY. MET GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A LATER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH AN EARLIER PASSAGE INDICATED BY THE MAV AND MOS GUIDANCE. COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY EVENING...WITH STILL THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS...LIKELY AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ONE ISSUE TO KEEP IN MIND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS WHETHER OR NOT SEA FOG...EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPACTS THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF CAMERON...WILLACY...AND KENEDY COUNTY...ESPECIALLY ALL OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED AT THAT TIME DEPENDING ON HOW FAR INLAND THE FOG MOVES IF IT INDEED DEVELOPS. DRIER AIR SURGING INTO THE BRO CWFA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER...AIDED BY THE PASSAGE OF A 500 MB TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF NEXT WEEK. MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WILL BE THE WINDS. THE FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY WITH COOL SHELF WATERS WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE MORE COOLER AND STABLE GULF WATERS. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS MAY REMAIN AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BUOY 42020 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 19 KNOTS WITH GUST TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET. WILL ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GULF WATERS NOW THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO...SEA FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE THIS MORNING INDICATE LIGHT WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON FRIDAY BUT SHOULD BE A FEW KNOTS LESS THAN TODAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE COULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TEXAS...RESPECTIVELY... WILL PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. WARM AND MOIST WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PASSING OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF SEA FOG ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...AND COLDER AIR SURGING OFFSHORE AFTERWARDS...WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO IMPROVE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY .BUT SMALL CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION THEN DUE TO SLIGHTLY ROUGH SEAS. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ170-175. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ130-132-135. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 68/58  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXHW60 PHFO 072012 AFDHFO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI 1012 AM HST SAT DEC 7 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN HAZE AND HUMIDITY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE ALOHA STATE COULD LEAD TO A FEW DOWNPOURS ON THE BIG ISLAND LATER THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO TRADES AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE STATE. && .DISCUSSION... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS ALREADY VEERED FROM EASTERLY TO SE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FLOW WILL VEER EVEN MORE TO LIGHT KONA WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUD MOTION IS CURRENTLY FROM THE SE AT ABOUT 14 KT NEAR KAUAI... AND IF THIS SPEED HOLDS AS THE WIND SHIFTS S...THIS WILL PROBABLY BE TOO STRONG TO ALLOW FOR MUCH AFTERNOON CLOUDINESS OR CONVECTION OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS AND MAY NEED TO UPDATE THE AFTERNOON FORECAST TO LOWER SKY COVER AND POPS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOUT 750 MILES S OF THE BIG ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY N THIS WEEKEND. THE MIMIC AND POES IMAGERY SHOW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE ABOUT 100 MILES OR SO SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND EDGING NORTHWARD. THIS SURGE IN DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SE LOW LEVEL BACKGROUND FLOW COULD LEAD TO A FEW DOWNPOURS IN THE KAU DISTRICT BY SUNDAY...AND HAVE ADDED THIS POSSIBILITY TO THE FORECAST. SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED EVEN FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS SUN- MON WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH ON THE KONA WINDS. MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE STATE ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING BY TO OUR N TUE-WED. THIS WILL RETURN THE TRADE WINDS...AND CLEAR OUT THE HAZE AND HUMIDITY. A FAIRLY TYPICAL DISTRIBUTION OF MAINLY NIGHT AND MORNING SHOWERS FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER BRIEF WEAKENING OR INTERRUPTION OF THE TRADES SEEMS LIKELY ON THU AS A FRONT PASSING BY TO THE N BREAKS DOWN THE HIGH TEMPORARILY...BUT A NEW STRONGER HIGH MOVES IN N OF THE ISLANDS TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND. 12Z GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE TREND FIRST STARTED IN THE 06/12Z ECMWF RUN AND THE 07/00Z GFS SHOWING TRADES INSTEAD OF SE WINDS LATE IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION... MAINLY VFR IS EXP FOR THE TERMINALS THRU THE PD. AFTN CLD/SHRA WITH ISOL MVFR CIGS WILL FOCUS ALONG INTERIOR AND SOME MT SECTIONS FROM 07/22Z-08/04Z. SE BIG ISLAND SLOPES AND ADJ WTRS MAY SEE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SHRA/RA BY 08/00Z SPREADING TO WINDWARD MAUI AFT 08/04Z. BKN-OVC CI WILL PERSIST OVR FAR SE BIG ISLAND ADJ WTRS. && .MARINE... THE COMBINATION OF S OR SE WINDS AND NW SWELL WILL MAKE IT ROUGH FOR BOATERS...BUT COULD SEE VERY CLEAN CONDITIONS FOR EXPERIENCED SURFERS ON N FACING SHORES IF THE SEA BREEZES DO NOT OVERPOWER THE SYNOPTIC BACKGROUND FLOW. ANOTHER PULSE DUE ON SUNDAY WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY CONDITIONS...AND WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MODERATE SWELL LASTING WELL INTO MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...BUT THE COMBINATION OF THE BUILDING NNW SWELL AND LINGERING HIGHER WIND WAVES IS PRODUCING COMBINED SEAS AROUND 10 FT AT BUOY 51101 AND THE HANALEI BUOY. AS A RESULT...AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR KAUAI WATERS. EXPECT BORDERLINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...POSSIBLY SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE STATE. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA. SCA UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS. && $$ DISCUSSION/MARINE...R BALLARD AVIATION...DEJESUS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KLUB 220819 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 319 AM CDT THU AUG 22 2013 .SHORT TERM... NO SIG CHANGES TO A QUIET FCST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. FCST AREA TO REMAIN UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED OVER SWRN KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE. PROGGED THICKNESS VALUES LITTLE CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON SUGGEST PERSISTENCE FCST TRENDING ONCE AGAIN TO JUST BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER NRN MEXICO TO DRIFT NWWD WHICH COULD PUSH SOME ISOLATED AFTN OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NWD THROUGH THE CONCHO VALLEY AND PERMIAN BASIN...BUT ATTM EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA. && .LONG TERM... OPTIMISM REMAINS HIGH FOR VERY ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND LIKELY PLAYING OUT AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MORE THAN DOUBLE WITHIN A DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME CHARACTERIZED BY MINIMAL CINH. BUT WITH SUCH LOW PRECIP COVERAGE EXPECTED...20 PERCENT POPS REMAIN MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR THIS SETUP. WATER VAPOR CONFIRMS THIS DEEPER MOISTURE ALREADY INCHING NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX WHERE PWATS HAVE ALREADY REACHED 1.8 INCHES PER POES DATA. FEW CHANGES WERE NECESSARY FROM EARLIER FORECASTS AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SUNFLOWER STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC DIFFER A BIT WITH THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEY ALL AGREE THE UA RIDGE WILL BROADEN AND BECOME MORE ZONALLY-ORIENTED. THIS THEME WOULD SPELL INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CWA BY SUNDAY ALONG WITH DIMINISHING PWATS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF AND CMC WANT NO BUSINESS IN RETROGRADING THE HIGH PER THE GFS. INSTEAD...THESE MODELS BACK THE UPPER FLOW FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST EARLIER THAN THE GFS. THIS WOULD OPEN THE DOOR TO ANOTHER INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE COMPLETE WITH AT LEAST ONE INVERTED TROUGH. NOT INCLINED TO BITE ON THIS THEME YET AS THE MAJORITY OF THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS ARE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THEIR PARENT GFS SOLUTION. IF ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES DO ARISE...THEY APPEAR CLOSELY TIED TO AN EASTERLY WAVE PRESENTLY IN THE NERN GULF THAT MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO DRIFT MORE NORTHWARD WITH TIME IF THE ECMWF AND CMC SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT. LASTLY...NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 91 62 88 63 88 / 0 0 10 10 20 TULIA 91 62 88 65 88 / 0 0 10 10 20 PLAINVIEW 91 64 88 65 88 / 0 0 10 10 20 LEVELLAND 92 63 89 65 89 / 0 0 20 20 20 LUBBOCK 91 66 89 67 90 / 0 0 20 20 20 DENVER CITY 90 62 89 65 89 / 0 10 20 20 20 BROWNFIELD 91 64 89 66 90 / 0 10 20 20 20 CHILDRESS 94 69 94 70 94 / 0 0 10 10 10 SPUR 93 67 93 69 92 / 0 0 20 20 20 ASPERMONT 94 71 94 70 94 / 0 0 20 20 20 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 07/93  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXCA62 TJSJ 010757 AFDSJU AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR 357 AM AST MON JUL 1 2013 .DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS OFFSHORE WATERS BUT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THIS MORNING. CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS ARE ALSO INCREASING OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A 600-500 MB WAVE. GFS SHOWS SOME CLOUDS AT THAT LEVEL MOVING NORTHWEST TO PR BY 12Z BUT IT APPEARS MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE AND TOO FAR NORTHWEST ALREADY AT 06Z. TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO MONA PASSAGE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH OVER PR/USVI...BUT INTEGRATED WATER HAS SHOWN A MAJOR DROPOFF AT BAYAMON DURING EVENING. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AT 900-600 MB IS ADVECTING INTO AREA AS SHOWN IN GOESBUFR SOUNDINGS THOUGH POESBUFR DOES NOT SEE IT. THE DRY AIR WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON BUT SOME HEAVY SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER NORTHWEST QUARTER OF PR. THE PATTERN OTHERWISE THIS WEEK IS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET. MID- LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WAVY BUT ESSENTIALLY DISCONNECTED FROM ITCZ MOISTURE. DEEP MOISTURE FROM ITCZ COULD POSSIBLY REACH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY BUT PROBABLY A DAY LATER THAN THE TROUGH THAT DREW IT OUT OF THE ZONE. SO EXPECTED PRECIPITATION EACH DAY TO BE MAINLY DIURNAL... SCATTERED OVER PARTS OF WESTERN PR AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. && .AVIATION...VFR THRU TUE XCP ISOLD MVFR IN FEW SHRA...MOST LIKELY TJMZ/TJBQ THIS AFT ALONG WITH MTN OBSC. WINDS TO FL150 ESE 12-20 KT BCMG E LATE TDY AND ENE ON TUE. && .MARINE...TRADE WINDS TO REACH 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FT NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS. && .CLIMATE...JUNE 2013 OVERALL WAS COOL AND WET ACROSS THE REGION. RECORDED RAINFALL TOTALS AT THE FOLLOWING AIRPORTS FOLLOW... COMPARED TO THE HIGHEST RAINFALL EVER RECORDED IN JUNE. SAN JUAN LUIS MARIN...11.29 INCHES - SECOND HIGHEST TO 13.60 INCHES IN 2011. CHARLOTTE AMALIE...4.38 INCHES - TENTH HIGHEST BEHIND 9.51 INCHES IN 2010. CHRISTIANSTED...4.90 INCHES - FIFTH HIGHEST BEHIND 7.83 INCHES IN 1987. IT WAS ALSO COOLER THAN NORMAL. SAN JUAN AIRPORT AVERAGED 82.0 DEGREES - 1.3 BELOW NORMAL. CHARLOTTE AMALIE AVERAGED 82.6 - 0.9 BELOW NORMAL...AND CHRISTIANSTED AIRPORT AVERAGED 82.5 - 0.5 BELOW NORMAL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SJU 87 77 86 77 / 20 20 20 20 STT 88 79 88 78 / 20 20 20 20 && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...NONE. VI...NONE. COASTAL WATERS...NONE. && $$ 11/54  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 131326 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 526 AM AKDT WED MAR 13 2013 .DISCUSSION... A FAIRLY STRONG TROUGH ALOFT HAS MOVED OUT OF THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO OVERNIGHT AND HAS JUST BEGUN TO MOVE OVER ALASKA NEAR DEMARCATION POINT. IT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND WEST FAIRLY RAPIDLY TO LIE FROM ABOUT DAWSON TO MCGRATH AT 4PM AND DIFFUSE NORTH OF MCGRATH TO NEAR ANAKTUVUK PASS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST WITH A NEW LOW ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE WEST TO CENTER NEAR BETHEL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BY WHICH TIME ITS CIRCULATION WILL AFFECT ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. NO PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN ALASKA FROM THIS THING...AND NOT EVEN MUCH CLOUD COVER...UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN IT WILL SPREAD MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL COOLING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE INTERIOR AND THERE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND (NORTH OF) THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE TROUGH ALOFT. WIND CHILLS IN THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY APPEAR UNLIKELY TO REACH THE ADVISORY LEVEL...EXCEPT IN ZONE 220...AND MAYBE NOT THERE. EXPECT LESS DRAMA IN THE WEST COAST ZONES...BUT A COOLING TREND WILL BEGIN THERE AS WELL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS MOST AREAS THURSDAY...AND COLDER DESPITE THE WINDS. WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM IN THE TOPKOK AREA ALONG THE IDITAROD TRAIL IN PARTICULAR. ONLY AN EASTERN POES PASS SO FAR THIS MORNING...EAST OF A LINE FROM BARROW TO KENAI. THERE APPEARS TO BE CONSIDERABLE STATUS OR FOG OVER ZONE 204...AND OVER ZONE 203 SOUTHEAST OF DEADHORSE. EXPECT THIS STUFF TO INCREASE AND SPREAD WEST TODAY. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR AKZ203-AKZ204-AKZ220. && $$ DJH MAR 13  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KPAH 190948 AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 348 AM CST TUE FEB 19 2013 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 347 AM CST TUE FEB 19 2013 THE FORECAST SIGNAL IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR THE UPCOMING WEATHER EVENT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT DURING THE LAST FOUR DAYS...MAINLY IN THE PLACEMENT OF ANY BRIEF WINTRY MIX ACCUMULATION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT /AFTER MIDNIGHT/ THROUGH NOON ON THURSDAY. THE HEADACHE HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMAL PROFILES /SOUNDINGS/ TIED TO THE AREA IMPACTED BY THE WINTRY MIX. THE INITIAL COMPLICATION COMES FROM THE FACT THAT THE CRITICAL CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE REGION IS STILL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ALTHOUGH THE REMOTE SENSING RETRIEVAL FROM THE GOES AND POES SATELLITES CAN GET A GOOD ESTIMATE OF TEMPERATURES ALOFT...A DETAILED SAMPLING OF UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS INVALUABLE. UNTIL THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ON SHORE LATE TONIGHT AND ADEQUATELY SAMPLED IN THE 00Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN A LITTLE WARMER AT THE 925/850 MB LEVELS /BY 1-1.5 DEGREES CELSIUS/...MAINLY WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS GUIDANCE. ON MONDAY...THE NAM-WRF INITIALIZED BETTER WITH THE MANDATORY UPPER AIR LEVELS...WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY CLOSER TODAY VERSUS THE GFS OR NAM-WRF. WITH THIS PACKAGE LEANED CLOSER TO THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE INITIAL UPPER AIR PROFILE WITH THE ONSET AND DEVELOPMENT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE MODEL RESOLUTION AND UNCERTAINTY OF THE UPPER AIR PROFILE...IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PRODUCE A DIFFERENTIAL PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION TYPES. THAT IS...FOR EXAMPLE TO HAVE A LIKELY OR DEFINITE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND A CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET. FOR NOW...WILL STILL NEED TO KEEP A MATCHING PROBABILITY OF LIQUID...FREEZING...FROZEN WHERE MIXED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. AT THIS TIME...THE FOCUS FOR THE CHANCE PROBABILITY OR BETTER OF A WINTRY MIX WILL START OUT IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT...REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 3 AM CST...MOVING EAST OF THE OHIO AND WABASH RIVER BETWEEN 6-7 AM CST. THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AIDING A LARGER GRADIENT OF WARM ADVECTION WILL NOT LIKELY KICK IN UNTIL THE 15-18Z TIME FRAME. BETWEEN 3 AM AND 9 AM CST...LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG AND NORTH OF CRAWLEYS RIDGE/SHAWNEE HILLS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH TO FORCE MOST OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW...CHANGING OVER TO SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET OVER THE SOUTHEAST MISSOURI FOOTHILLS...AS DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE MORNING. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR ANY ACCUMULATION REMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. IF THE ORIENTATION AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW IS FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...SOME ICE POTENTIAL COULD MOVE INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS IN THE MODELS PRIOR TO THE EVENT. FROM A MODEL PERSPECTIVE...THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST /SREF/ GUIDANCE APPEARED TO BE SUPERIOR IN THE INITIALIZATION AND PROBABILITY OF THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES FOR THIS EVENT. MOST OF THE FORECAST CLOSELY MATCHES THE 03Z TUESDAY SREF GUIDANCE OUTPUT SURPRISINGLY. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS EARLY MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCES...AN ADJUSTMENT TO ALL RAIN HAS HAD TO BE MADE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...AS A WARM FRONT MOVE NORTH. THE WARM NOSE OF TEMPERATURES WIDENS DURING THIS TIME AND ANY PRECIPITATION LOADING ALOFT WILL ONLY AID IN THE WARMING OF THE SURFACE LAYER AND THE EROSION OF SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH. THE SNOWFALL/ICE PELLET ACCUMULATION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BECOMES ACADEMIC...AS THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY MELT AWAY ANY TRACES OF ACCUMULATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE EFFECTIVE ICE CRYSTAL PRODUCTION LAYER LOSES ANY EFFECTIVE MOISTURE BY THURSDAY EVENING...LEAVING ONLY A TRACE OR NEAR TRACE PRECIPITATION EVENT. ALSO AT THIS TIME...THE LOCAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT AT ODDS WITH THE HPC SNOW/SLEET/ICE FORECAST. HOPEFULLY...THERE WILL BE SOME SYNERGY ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST LATER TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 347 AM CST TUE FEB 19 2013 IN THE WAKE OF A WEATHER SYSTEM FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT...BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE IT OUT. WITH NO DISCERNABLE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TO HOLD UP OR SLOW THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...CHANCES ARE THE PRECIP WILL BE OVER BY 12Z FRIDAY ANYWAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS...IN RESPONSE TO A SHARP H5 TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND TRACKS IT JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA WHILE PAINTING MINOR QPF OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF OUR CWA. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DO NOT PICK UP ON THE H5 TROUGH AND KEEP ALL QPF ALONG THE GULF COAST...SO DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MAJORITY FOR NOW. BEYOND THAT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ALL LIQUID WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO WARRANT SMALL THUNDER CHANCES ON MONDAY. MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS ONE EITHER. THE GFS IS FASTER AND HAS THE EVENT VIRTUALLY OVER BY MIDDAY MONDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF JUST GETS THINGS STARTED MONDAY MORNING AND KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOPEFULLY WITH TIME MODELS WILL GET A BETTER GRIP ON THIS ONE. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 515 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013 LINGERING SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KOWB FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST IS ALREADY UNDERWAY AT KCGI/KPAH/KEVV AND THE SHIFT WILL TAKE PLACE AT KOWB WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. STRONG GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST BEFORE THAT HAPPENS THOUGH. MEANWHILE...MVFR CIGS ARRIVE WITH THE WIND SHIFT AND ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT SATELLITE...THE LOW CLOUDS MAY NOT LAST TOO LONG AT KCGI/KPAH. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER AT KEVV/KOWB LONGER INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE SKC BY 18Z. WINDS WILL STAY UP FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO MOST OF TUESDAY. BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...THE WIND SHOULD SUBSIDE. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. MO...NONE. IN...NONE. KY...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SMITH LONG TERM...JAP AVIATION...JAP  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 292047 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 1147 AM AKST THU NOV 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... MODELS...ONCE AGAIN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PICTURE BUT A BIT WEAK IN THE DETAILS. MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS WE SEE A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN. ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH A 562 DAM CENTER LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN CHAIN EXTENDS NORTH THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT. THE RIDGE WEAKENS SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TOP OF IT. THE RIDGE THEN SLIDES TO THE WESTERN BERING SEA SUNDAY AND STRENGTHENS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM A LOW OVER THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO TO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THEN SOUTH TO A LOW IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. AT 850 HPA...OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE EXCEPTIONS BEING A COUPLE SHOTS OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR...AND EXPECT SOME COLD AIR TO POOL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS SHOWING UP IN THE MODELS AND IT WORKS ITS WAY WEST TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS MINUS 32C AT 850 HPA ARE SHOWING UP OVER THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY BY MIDWEEK. SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH FROM THE HIGH ARCTIC TO THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COAST AND WILL PRODUCE MAINLY FLURRIES AND PERIODIC GUSTY WINDS. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST COAST ON FRIDAY BUT IT LOSES MOST OF ITS PUNCH AS IT GETS TO THE COAST THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND DISSIPATES. SOME GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL KICK UP WINDS AROUND POINT HOPE AND MAYBE THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH. STRONG GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE TO THE GULF AND WILL NOT CREATE ANY ISSUES FOR OUR AREA. ARCTIC COAST...WEAK FRONTS CONTINUE TO SWING AROUND THE LOW IN THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO AND YOU CAN SEE STRATUS ON THE POES SAT PICTURES EXTENDING TO ABOUT 76N. EAST OF POINT LAY...FLURRIES WILL BE BROKEN UP BY PERIODS OF SNOW BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION. STRATUS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE THOUGH A LITTLE COULD BLEED THROUGH. ON THE NORTHEAST COAST SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONTS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH BUT WINDS PREDOMINATELY LESS THAN 15 KT. ON THE NORTHWEST COAST A SHOT OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. WEST COAST...PRETTY QUIET STILL. SOME STRATUS THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR. A SHORT PERIOD OF SNOW OR FLURRIES AROUND POINT HOPE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT SYSTEM WILL FALL APART PRETTY RAPIDLY SO EXPECTING JUST FLURRIES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES. INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLEAR CONTINUES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...BUT OVERALL NOT CHANGE MUCH. COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER EAST OF FORT YUKON AND IN THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND. EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE WAY NEXT WEEK UNLESS WE CAN GET SOME CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. INVERSIONS AROUND TOWN NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH SO CONTINUED WARMER IN THE HILLS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIDRANGE...MODELS SIGNAL A CHANGE MID WEEK AND BEYOND FROM THE PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN BLOCKED INTO BUT IT WILL NOT BE A WARMING TREND. WE WILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES IF THE DOMINANT LOW IN THE GULF MOVES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRINGS SOME WINDS ALOFT TO THE AREA AND BREAK UP THE INVERSION...BUT AT THIS TIME THAT IS QUESTIONABLE. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ245. && $$ SDB NOV 12  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXAK69 PAFG 132234 AFDAFG NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK 234 PM AKDT THU SEP 13 2012 .DISCUSSION... MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE UPCOMING FOR NORTHERN ALASKA...WITH THE COOL LARGELY DRY PATTERN OF THE PAST WEEK OR SO GIVING WAY TO DEEP SLY FLOW OVER THE ERN THREE-QUARTERS OF THE CWA...AS TROUGH DIGS OVER TH CHUKCHI AND BERING SEAS AND BIG RIDGE BUILDS OFF OF VANCOUVER ISLAND. AT THE SFC...996 MB LOW NEAR 78N/150W WILL DRIFT SWD TOWARD WRANGEL ISLAND AND WEAKEN. 1002MB LOW SOUTH OF ST. PAUL WILL DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN BUT NEW LOW DVLPG IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTH AND DEEPEN TO 990MB IN BRISTOL BAY SAT EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK NORTH AND DEEPEN SOME..NOT BE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF BARROW BY MON AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA SUN AN SUN NIGHT. BROAD 1010 MB LOW OVER THE SE INTERIOR WILL SHARPEN UP AS RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE. MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING STRONG RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BC RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE INITIALLY WET OVR WRN ZONES BUT IF FLOW BECOMES SELY ENOUGH WARMER AND DRIER WX WILL SPREAD WEST. NORTH SLOPE...POES IMAGERY SHOWS DECENT FRONTAL BAND ASSOSD WITH HIGH ARCTIC LOW THAT SHOULD MOVE ASHORE LATER TONIGHT BUT WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE PUSH SE OF BARROW. NOTHING MORE THAN SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. WINDS WILL TURN AROUND EAST AND INCREASE SUN AND STRONG WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED. WEST COAST...RAIN WILL SPREAD N SAT AND SUN. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A 6-12 HOUR PERIOD FOLLOWING LOW PASSAGE WITH BRISK W-SW WINDS THAT COULD PRODUCE COASTAL ISSUES. HOWEVER...THE INTERIOR...MODERATE TO STRONG CHINOOK WINDS WILL DEVELOP SAT PM THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES AND THEN CONTINUE THRU SUN. AT LEAST WIND ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED ZONES 223...225 AND 266...AND PERHAPS WATCH/WARNINGS. COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE STRONG LOW MOVING NWD ALONG OR JUST EAST OF 160W SUN AND MON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ON THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE LOW THAT COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL ISSUES. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE FEATURE. STAY TUNED. && .HYDROLOGY... NONE && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ240. && $$ RT SEP 12  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KSGX 010554 AFDSGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 930 PM PST WED FEB 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... COOL WITH INCREASING LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. VERY STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS THURSDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...BECOMING OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING WITH STRONG GUSTS IN AND BELOW CANYONS AND PASSES. DRY AND WARMER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN AND BRING COOLING AND MARINE LAYER CLOUDS BACK TO THE COASTAL AREAS. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... THE AFTERNOON SOUNDING FROM NKX SHOWS SOME MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH A WEAK INVERSION AT ABOUT 4000 FEET AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ABOVE. THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE TRENDING STRONGER ONSHORE WITH +12 MB SAN-TPH AND +6 MB SAN-IPL. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT NOW MOVING OVER THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN. ALTHOUGH WE ARE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BE IMPACTED BY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS POST FRONTAL WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS TOWARD THE SW AND THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MOUNTAIN WAVES LIKELY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND SURFACING INTO THE DESERTS. WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 55 TO 65 MPH ARE LIKELY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...BUT A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENING TO ABOUT 6000 FEET BY THU MORNING COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SMALL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ON THE COASTAL SLPOES AND WEST OF THE MTNS. EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST AND THE WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NE AS A SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN...SETTING UP STRONG OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. INITIALLY THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NORTH-SOUTH PASSES THROUGH THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS...FUNNELING THROUGH THE CAJON PASS INTO THE NRN INLAND EMPIRE...AND THROUGH THE MORONGO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN COACHELLA VALLEY. THEY WILL TRANSITION TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SEWD. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH THE EAST-WEST PASSES OF RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTIES WHERE WINDS OF 20-40 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 60 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE LOCATIONS. THE GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH THE MARINE LAYER MOISTURE OFFSHORE BY LATE FRI MORNING. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARM WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S WEST OF THE MTNS...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY MARCH. THE OFFSHORE EVENT ENDS MONDAY WITH COOLING AND A GRADUAL RETURN OF MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TO COASTAL AND VALLEY ZONES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND ANOTHER VIGOROUS TROUGH MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA. && .AVIATION... 010500Z...W OF THE MOUNTAINS...BKN/OVC LOW CLOUDS AND STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN COVERAGE AND DEPTH THROUGH AROUND 02/1800Z THURSDAY MORNING. BASES BETWEEN 2-3K FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 5K FT MSL. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE BUT VIS EXPECTED TO STAY P6SM. AFT 02/1800Z SKIES WILL BECOME FEW/SCT AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 10 KT GUSTING TO 20 KT ALONG THE COAST...AFFECTING COASTAL AIRPORTS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BETWEEN 03/0200-0400Z. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ARE WILL RAMP UP ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 2-4K FT MSL AND TOPS 4-5K FT MSL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...OBSTRUCTING VIS WHERE CLOUDS INTERSECT TERRAIN. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS AFT 02/1800Z. SURFACE WINDS MAY GUST TO 40 OR 50 KT ACROSS THE RIDGE TOPS AND ON ADJACENT DESERT SLOPES. AS MOUNTAINS WAVES SURFACE...EXPECT STRONG UP AND DOWN DRAFTS ALONG WITH LLWS OVER MANY OF THE DESERT AIRPORTS. && .MARINE... WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND REMAIN STRONG THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR FREQUENT WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS AND ASSOCIATED STEEP WIND WAVES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM PST FRIDAY FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS. HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM PST THURSDAY FOR THE APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR THE APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS...COACHELLA VALLEY. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE COACHELLA VALLEY...ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE. PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM PST FRIDAY FOR THE WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM PST FRIDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT 30 NM. && $$ PUBLIC...PG AVIATION/MARINE...JT  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KGRR 071934 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 240 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012 LATEST UPDATE...ALL BUT AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS...(240 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012) LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND THE UPPER PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD INTO MICHIGAN. THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ACT TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...BUT IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. && .SHORT TERM...(240 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012) (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT) HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO LOWER MI THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE WEATHER RELATIVELY DRY. LOWER CLOUDS COVERING SOUTHWEST LOWER MI WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WE LOSE THE DAYTIME HEATING. THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES MAINLY UP AROUND TUSTIN AS THE DGZ WAS CLIPPING THE TOPS OF THE LOWER CLOUDS. LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP TEMPS OF AROUND -15 DEG C NORTH OF RQB. 16Z POES SOUNDING NEAR RQB SHOWS MOISTURE ALMOST UP TO THE 700 MB LEVEL. WHILE IT IS SHOWN THAT WE LOSE THE LOWER CLOUDS...HIGHER CLOUDS UP AROUND 300 MB MOVE OVERNIGHT. THEN FOR SUNDAY WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE RISK FOR ANY LOWER CLOUD FORMATION ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN LOWER MI. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME SUN ALONG WITH 925 MB TEMPS ONLY -4 DEG C...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH LOWER MI ON MONDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD NOT LEAD TO ANY PRECIPITATION AS THERE IS ROUGHLY 5K TO 10K FT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD BASES UP AROUND 10K FT. && .LONG TERM...(240 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012) (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) MAIN WX STORY IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE THE RETURN OF MUCH COLDER AIR TO LWR MI AND POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW LATE IN THE WEEK. H8 TEMPS WILL BE DOWN TO -14 TO -16 C BY THURSDAY EVENING... IN A WEST TO WNW FLOW PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW. THE FCST IS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN BEGINNING FRIDAY. 00Z ECMWF KEPT COLD AIR LOCKED IN THROUGH FRIDAY... WHEREAS 12Z GFS GUIDANCE SHOWS A SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN WITH H8 TEMPS ALREADY BACK UP TO -10 TO -12C BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON WHETHER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO GO RATHER STRONG THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY OR WHETHER SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALREADY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE FRIDAY AS GFS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. AT THIS TIME WE WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FCST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... WITH HIGHEST POPS MAINLY WEST OF US-131. REGARDING THE WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... UNSEASONABLY MILD/DRY DRY WX TO CONTINUE TUESDAY. THE OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT LOW PRESSURE OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY WILL TRACK NE TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT... KEEPING SYNOPTIC PCPN SE OF LWR MI. HOWEVER THE SAME FCST CONCERNS ELUDED TO BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT ARE STILL THERE FOR MIDWEEK... THAT IF THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WERE TO TRACK FURTHER NORTH AND IF THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS FASTER AND MERGES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM... THAT THIS WOULD YIELD A FURTHER NNW TRACK OF THE SFC LOW. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME FAVORS A TRACK FAR ENOUGH SE THAT SYNOPTIC PCPN WOULD MISS LWR MI WEDNESDAY... BUT IT IS NOTED THAT 12Z GFS GUIDANCE DOES CLIP OUR SE FCST AREA WITH SOME LIGHT PCPN WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD PROBABLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. && .AVIATION...(1240 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012) MVFR TO NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON WITH CIGS OF 2500-3500 FT AGL. NW SFC WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SHOULD START TO SEE SOME GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN... RESULTING IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THRU 18Z SUN. && .MARINE...(240 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012) GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WARRANT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. AS WE GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE DIMINISHING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS LOW THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER ON MONDAY A WESTERLY WIND WILL INCREASE AND HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. && .HYDROLOGY...(240 PM EST SAT JAN 7 2012) BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH THE PERIOD COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MEAN LITTLE OR NO IMPACTS ON THE AREA RIVERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LESSEN THE RISK FOR ICE RELATED ISSUES. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ENTIRE NEARSHORE INTO TONIGHT. && $$ SYNOPSIS: MJS SHORT TERM: MJS LONG TERM: LAURENS AVIATION: LAURENS MARINE: MJS HYDROLOGY: MJS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KILM 160408 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1045 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BRINGING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A SECOND FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 1045 PM TUESDAY...SPORADIC ONSHORE MOVEMENT OF PATCHY OR AREAS OF SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THIS A RESULT OF SFC WINDS BOUNCING FROM 180-210 DEGREES. AS WINDS BECOME DOMINANT 210-230 DEGREE DIRECTION AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR SEA FOG MOVING ONSHORE WILL DIMINISH GREATLY. SCATTERED -SHRA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING NE...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL WINDSPEED CONVERGENCE FROM 15-25 KT S-SW WINDS OFFSHORE QUICKLY DROPPING TO 10 KT OR LESS OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS...AS WELL AS WEAK WIND DIRECTION CONVERGENCE FROM SW INLAND TO S-SSW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AS FOR SEA FOG...THE LATEST AVAILABLE SST MAP OF THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST USING AVHRR DATA FOR THE 2 DAYS ENDING ON NOV 14TH...INDICATED 2 PATCHES OF NOTEWORTHY COOL SHELF WATERS OFF THE CAROLINAS...WITH 1 PATCH BETWEEN SURF CITY AND CAPE FEAR...TO NEARLY OUT TO THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...41013. AND THE SECOND PATCH LYING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN NORTH MYRTLE BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THIS 2ND ONE NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THE 1ST. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ADVECTING ACROSS THESE COOLER SHELF WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO WED...SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST BORDERING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLL SHELF WATER AREAS. A FEW LOCAL SURF CAMS HAVE ALSO SHOWCASED THE EXISTENCE OF THE SEA FOG AT TIMES. PREVIOUS MIN FORECAST FOR TONIGHT STILL LOOKING AOK WITH ANY TWEAKS NEEDED WOULD BE ON THE ORDER TO INCREASE LOWS CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL PROVIDE GOOD SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS THE LOW LEVEL LIFTING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY THE MODEL TO BE VERY LOW AND THE LOW-LEVEL 0 TO 2.5 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE REACHES ALMOST 40 KNOTS. THE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY MAXIMUM APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS MODEL RUN AND IS RUNNING AHEAD OF THE MODEL CONVECTION...SO CONFIDENCE ON ISOLATED TORNADOES IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRI BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SAT WITH LOW LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 3K FT OR SO. CURRENT FORECAST IS DEVOID OF PRECIP HOWEVER THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LATER IN THE DAY SAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PATCHY OF RAIN. WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH QPF SHOULD SOMETHING DEVELOP WITH COASTAL NC THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE SOMETHING. AT THE VERY LEAST ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SAT INTO SUN. COASTAL TROUGH DISSIPATES SUN AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUN AND MON DRY MID LEVELS AND WEAK CAP...A RESULT OF BUILDING WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE...WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED NORTH OF THE AREA TUE WILL TRY AND DROP SOUTH DURING THE DAY. IF FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DO NOT THINK IT WOULD HAVE MUCH PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE FRONT IS STRETCHED OUT WITH THE DYNAMICS WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM WELL BELOW CLIMO AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO ABOVE CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRANSITION FROM BELOW CLIMO TO ABOVE WILL BE QUICK...BY SAT NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE CLIMO. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 00Z...EXPECT CONTINUED AREAS OF PATCHY SEA FOG TO ADVECT ONSHORE AT KCRE/KMYR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...REDUCING VSBYS OFF AND ON TO MVFR BEFORE FLOW FROM VEERING WINDS STEER FOG AWAY FROM TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK. FOR KILM...CURRENT RADAR DEPICTS SOME -SHRA OFFSHORE. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER TO WRAP AROUND TO TERMINAL...AND POSSIBLY THE TWO OTHER COASTAL SITES...THUS HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH ROUGHLY 06Z WITH SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-8KTS. WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...ANTICIPATE CIGS AND VSBYS AT ALL SITES DETERIORATE AFTER 07Z DUE TO ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS. FOR NOW...ANTICIPATE LIFR/IFR CIGS...AND IFR/MVFR FOG THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOON AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR...WITH TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATING GUSTY WINDS 18-22KTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SOUTH- SOUTHWEST. TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD INTO THE NEXT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS ANTICIPATED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD CREATE ISOLATED TSRA AND IFR. EXPECT VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FOR POTENTIAL IFR FOG/STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1055 PM TUESDAY...THE SEA FOG THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ILM WATERS. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY/AREAS OF SEA FOG ACROSS THE ILM WATERS THROUGH OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE SST MAP OF THE ILM WATERS USING AVHRR DATA FOR THE 2 DAYS ENDING ON NOV 14TH...2 NOTEWORTHY PATCHES OF COOLER SHELF WATERS IN THE LOW 60S WERE SHOWN. ONE PATCH BETWEEN SURF CITY AND CAPE FEAR...AND OUT TO NEARLY THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...41013. AND THE 2ND PATCH...LYING ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN NORTH MYRTLE BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THIS 2ND ONE NOT NEARLY AS PRONOUNCED AS THE 1ST. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THESE COOLER SHELF WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO WED. THIS WILL RESULT WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE ILM WATERS...PARTICULAR ACROSS THOSE COOL WATERS. A FEW LOCAL SURF CAMS HAVE SHOWCASED THE EXISTENCE OF THE SEA FOG. AS SYNOPTIC WINDS SLOWLY VEER FROM 190-230 OVERNIGHT INTO WED...THE THREAT FOR SEA FOG WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OR ATLEAST KEEP THE FOG FROM ADVECTING ONSHORE/INLAND. WILL INDICATE VSBY REDUCING TO 1NM OR LESS. IF ANY RECEIVED REPORTS AND/OR OBS INDICATE 1/2 NM OR LESS VSBYS...WILL THEN UPDATE AND ADVERTISE DENSE FOG. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG. HAVE MAINTAINED THE WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THE LATEST HRRR KEEPING WINDS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE. WHICH IN TURN...PRODUCING SLIGHTLY LOWER SEAS THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH OUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND THE LOCAL SWAN MODEL IS INDICATING THE SEAS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT OFF SHORE WINDS ON THURSDAY. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...POST FRONT COLD SURGE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FRI WILL DROP CLOSER TO 10 KT BY SAT MORNING AS GRADIENT. WEAK COASTAL TROF TAKING SHAPE WILL INDUCE A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. ADVISORY WORTHY SEAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DROP TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRI NIGHT AND REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAWKINS NEAR TERM...DOUGH SHORT TERM...HAWKINS LONG TERM...III AVIATION...LACORTE  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KILM 160128 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 755 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BRINGING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A SECOND FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 755 PM TUESDAY...THE ZONES BORDERING THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS WILL HAVE A CONTINUED THREAT OF SEA FOG OCCASIONALLY MOVING ONSHORE. THIS A RESULT OF SFC WINDS BOUNCING FROM 180-210 DEGREES. AS WINDS BECOME THE DOMINANT 210-230 DIRECTION AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR SEA FOG MOVING ONSHORE WILL DIMINISH. THE OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED -SHRA THIS EVENING WILL ALSO KEEP THE FOG AT BAY. THE LATEST AVAILABLE SST MAP OF THE WATERS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST USING AVHRR DATA FOR THE 2 DAYS ENDING ON NOV 14TH...INDICATED 2 PATCHES OF NOTEWORTHY COOL SHELF WATERS OFF THE CAROLINAS...WITH 12 BETWEEN SURF CITY AND CAPE FEAR...TO NEARLY OUT TO THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...41013. AND THE SECOND PATCH LYING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN NORTH MYRTLE BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THIS 2ND ONE NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THE 1ST. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ADVECTING ACROSS THESE COOLER SHELF WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO WED...SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COAST BORDERING THE AFOREMENTIONED COLL SHELF WATER AREAS. A FEW LOCAL SURF CAMS HAVE ALSO SHOWCASED THE EXISTENCE OF THE SEA FOG AT TIMES. PREVIOUS MIN FORECAST FOR TONIGHT LOOKING ON TARGET AND SEE NO REASON TO ALTER AT THIS POINT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................ AS OF 300 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND IS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR ADVECTING TROPICAL AIR NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW COVERS THE CAROLINAS. IT TOOK NEARLY 5 HOURS FOR THIS MORNING'S LOW STRATUS ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA TO MIX OUT...HOWEVER THIS MOISTURE STILL EXISTS AND SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW AND PERHAPS MORE EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM AND HAVE SO FAR REMAINED 20-60 MILES FROM SHORE. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO SHORE ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AND MAY PUSH UP TOWARD THE CAPE FEAR WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. GFS AND NAM MODELS SHOW SOME SYNOPTIC JET SUPPORT FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NEAR CAPE FEAR OVERNIGHT. WE ARE UNSURE IF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND AFFECT LAND AREAS AS WELL...SO WE ARE MAINTAINING ONLY SMALL POPS ACROSS BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES...AND HAVE EXPANDED TO THE GRAND STRAND. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMALS GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS...CLOUD COVER...A 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET...AND HIGH DEWPOINTS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM 62-66...WARMEST ALONG THE NC COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST. NWS CHARLESTON ALERTED US TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG OVER A PORTION OF THEIR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE...CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SEA FOG ALONG THE GRAND STRAND AND THE CAPE FEAR VICINITY. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL PROVIDE GOOD SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS THE LOW LEVEL LIFTING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY THE MODEL TO BE VERY LOW AND THE LOW-LEVEL 0 TO 2.5 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE REACHES ALMOST 40 KNOTS. THE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY MAXIMUM APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS MODEL RUN AND IS RUNNING AHEAD OF THE MODEL CONVECTION...SO CONFIDENCE ON ISOLATED TORNADOES IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRI BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SAT WITH LOW LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 3K FT OR SO. CURRENT FORECAST IS DEVOID OF PRECIP HOWEVER THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LATER IN THE DAY SAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PATCHY OF RAIN. WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH QPF SHOULD SOMETHING DEVELOP WITH COASTAL NC THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE SOMETHING. AT THE VERY LEAST ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SAT INTO SUN. COASTAL TROUGH DISSIPATES SUN AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUN AND MON DRY MID LEVELS AND WEAK CAP...A RESULT OF BUILDING WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE...WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED NORTH OF THE AREA TUE WILL TRY AND DROP SOUTH DURING THE DAY. IF FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DO NOT THINK IT WOULD HAVE MUCH PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE FRONT IS STRETCHED OUT WITH THE DYNAMICS WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM WELL BELOW CLIMO AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO ABOVE CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRANSITION FROM BELOW CLIMO TO ABOVE WILL BE QUICK...BY SAT NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE CLIMO. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 00Z...EXPECT CONTINUED AREAS OF PATCHY SEA FOG TO ADVECT ONSHORE AT KCRE/KMYR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...REDUCING VSBYS OFF AND ON TO MVFR BEFORE FLOW FROM VEERING WINDS STEER FOG AWAY FROM TERMINALS AFTER DAYBREAK. FOR KILM...CURRENT RADAR DEPICTS SOME -SHRA OFFSHORE. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER TO WRAP AROUND TO TERMINAL...AND POSSIBLY THE TWO OTHER COASTAL SITES...THUS HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE...VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH ROUGHLY 06Z WITH SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-8KTS. WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...ANTICIPATE CIGS AND VSBYS AT ALL SITES DETERIORATE AFTER 07Z DUE TO ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS. FOR NOW...ANTICIPATE LIFR/IFR CIGS...AND IFR/MVFR FOG THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOON AFTER DAYBREAK...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR...WITH TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATING GUSTY WINDS 18-22KTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN SOUTH- SOUTHWEST. TOWARDS THE END OF THE VALID PERIOD INTO THE NEXT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS ANTICIPATED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD CREATE ISOLATED TSRA AND IFR. EXPECT VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH LOWERED CONFIDENCE FOR POTENTIAL IFR FOG/STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 755 PM TUESDAY...THIS UPDATE HAS FOCUSED ON THE REFINEMENT AND PLACEMENT OF THE SEA FOG THREAT ACROSS THE ILM WATERS. FROM THE UPDATE EARLIER...WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY/AREAS OF SEA FOG ACROSS THE ILM WATERS THROUGH OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE SST MAP OF THE ILM WATERS USING AVHRR DATA FOR THE 2 DAYS ENDING ON NOV 14TH...HAVING INDICATED 2 PATCHES OF NOTEWORTHY COOL SHELF WATERS...IE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH 1 BETWEEN SURF CITY AND CAPE FEAR...AND OUT TO NEARLY THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...41013. AND THE 2ND...LYING ACROSS THE WATERS BETWEEN NORTH MYRTLE BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THIS 2ND ONE NOT NEARLY AS PRONOUNCED AS THE 1ST. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THESE COOLER SHELF WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO WED. THIS WILL RESULT WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE ILM WATERS...PARTICULAR ACROSS THOSE COOL WATERS. A FEW LOCAL SURF CAMS HAVE EVEN SHOWCASED THE EXISTENCE OF THE SEA FOG. AS SYNOPTIC WINDS SLOWLY VEER FROM 190-230 OVERNIGHT INTO WED...THE THREAT FOR SEA FOG WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OR ATLEAST KEEP THE FOG FROM ADVECTING ONSHORE/INLAND. WILL INDICATE VSBY REDUCING TO 1NM OR LESS. IF ANY RECEIVED REPORTS AND/OR OBS INDICATE 1/2 NM OR LESS VSBYS...WILL THEN UPDATE AND ADVERTISE DENSE FOG. HAVE MAINTAINED THE WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THE LATEST HRRR KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MODEL GUIDANCE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION................................................. AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A VERY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. MODELS ARE PAINTING VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT DEPENDING ON THE BEHAVIOR OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM MODELS SHOW SYNOPTIC WINDS INCREASING TO 15-18 KT TONIGHT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SEAS BUILDING TO NEARLY 5 FT NEAR AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR. TWO EXPERIMENTAL NAM RUNS UTILIZING DIFFERENT MODEL PHYSICS MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT WHICH DISRUPTS THE WIND FIELDS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND RESULTS IN MUCH LOWER WIND SPEEDS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM OUR FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THOSE TWO SCENARIOS AND HAS WINDS BUILDING TO 12-15 KT OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NO HIGHER THAN 4 FT AT 20 MILES FROM SHORE. NWS CHARLESTON ALERTED US TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG NEAR TYBEE ISLAND...HILTON HEAD AND EDISTO BEACH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG OUR PORTION OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS WELL. WE ARE INCLUDING PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST WITHIN 5 MILES OF SHORE TONIGHT ALONG THE GRAND STRAND AND NEAR GEORGETOWN. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH OUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND THE LOCAL SWAN MODEL IS INDICATING THE SEAS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT OFF SHORE WINDS ON THURSDAY. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...POST FRONT COLD SURGE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FRI WILL DROP CLOSER TO 10 KT BY SAT MORNING AS GRADIENT. WEAK COASTAL TROF TAKING SHAPE WILL INDUCE A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. ADVISORY WORTHY SEAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DROP TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRI NIGHT AND REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAWKINS NEAR TERM...DOUGH/ARMSTRONG SHORT TERM...HAWKINS LONG TERM...III AVIATION...LACORTE  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KILM 152238 AAA AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 515 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLIDE EASTWARD BRINGING SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING DURING THE WEEKEND. A SECOND FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY. && .UPDATED NEAR TERM FOR THE IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COASTS AND WATERS... AS OF 515 PM TUESDAY...HAVE UPDATED THE COASTAL WATERS AND ZONES BORDERING THE IMMEDIATE COAST...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE REDUCED VSBY THREAT FROM PATCHY/AREAS OF SEA FOG THAT WILL OCCASIONALLY AFFECT THE WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL ZONES. THE LATEST AVAILABLE SST MAP OF THE ILM WATERS USING AVHRR DATA FOR THE 2 DAYS ENDING ON NOV 14TH... INDICATED 2 PATCHES OF NOTEWORTHY COOL SHELF WATERS BETWEEN SURF CITY AND CAPE FEAR...TO NEARLY OUT TO THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...41013. AND THE SECOND PATCH LYING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN NORTH MYRTLE BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. THIS 2ND ONE NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS THE 1ST. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ADVECTING ACROSS THESE COOLER SHELF WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SEA FOG HAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. A FEW LOCAL SURF CAMS HAVE ALSO SHOWCASED THE EXISTENCE OF THIS FOG. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND IS LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR ADVECTING TROPICAL AIR NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW COVERS THE CAROLINAS. IT TOOK NEARLY 5 HOURS FOR THIS MORNING'S LOW STRATUS ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA TO MIX OUT...HOWEVER THIS MOISTURE STILL EXISTS AND SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW AND PERHAPS MORE EXPANSIVE STRATUS DECK OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM AND HAVE SO FAR REMAINED 20-60 MILES FROM SHORE. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO SHORE ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AND MAY PUSH UP TOWARD THE CAPE FEAR WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. GFS AND NAM MODELS SHOW SOME SYNOPTIC JET SUPPORT FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS NEAR CAPE FEAR OVERNIGHT. WE ARE UNSURE IF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND AFFECT LAND AREAS AS WELL...SO WE ARE MAINTAINING ONLY SMALL POPS ACROSS BRUNSWICK...NEW HANOVER AND PENDER COUNTIES. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMALS GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS...CLOUD COVER...A 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET...AND HIGH DEWPOINTS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM 62-66...WARMEST ALONG THE NC COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST. NWS CHARLESTON ALERTED US TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG OVER A PORTION OF THEIR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO RISE CONDITIONS MAY BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SEA FOG ALONG THE GRAND STRAND THIS EVENING...AND PREVAILING WINDS COULD ADVECT THESE LOWER VISIBILITIES ONSHORE AFFECTING MYRTLE BEACH TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL PROVIDE GOOD SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS THE LOW LEVEL LIFTING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY THE MODEL TO BE VERY LOW AND THE LOW-LEVEL 0 TO 2.5 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE REACHES ALMOST 40 KNOTS. THE LOW-LEVEL HELICITY MAXIMUM APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS MODEL RUN AND IS RUNNING AHEAD OF THE MODEL CONVECTION...SO CONFIDENCE ON ISOLATED TORNADOES IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ON THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COLD SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRI BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING NORTHEAST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SAT WITH LOW LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 3K FT OR SO. CURRENT FORECAST IS DEVOID OF PRECIP HOWEVER THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LATER IN THE DAY SAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PATCHY OF RAIN. WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH QPF SHOULD SOMETHING DEVELOP WITH COASTAL NC THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE SOMETHING. AT THE VERY LEAST ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SAT INTO SUN. COASTAL TROUGH DISSIPATES SUN AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUN AND MON DRY MID LEVELS AND WEAK CAP...A RESULT OF BUILDING WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE...WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIP. WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED NORTH OF THE AREA TUE WILL TRY AND DROP SOUTH DURING THE DAY. IF FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DO NOT THINK IT WOULD HAVE MUCH PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE FRONT IS STRETCHED OUT WITH THE DYNAMICS WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM WELL BELOW CLIMO AT THE START OF THE PERIOD TO ABOVE CLIMO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRANSITION FROM BELOW CLIMO TO ABOVE WILL BE QUICK...BY SAT NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE CLIMO. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 18Z...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS QUITE ABUNDANT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. AFTER NIGHTFALL...EXPECT CEILINGS TO EITHER LOWER TO IFR...OR IFR CEILINGS WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH. MODERATE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING...AS IT IS A BIT UNUSUAL TO GO IFR SO EARLY. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE. WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN KEEPING IFR CEILINGS IN FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY...BREAKING TO MVFR AROUND 15-17Z...SLOWEST OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW...BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. VFR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE FOR IFR FOG/STRATUS SUNDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING FARTHER OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A VERY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. MODELS ARE PAINTING VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT DEPENDING ON THE BEHAVIOR OF SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. THE 12Z GFS AND NAM MODELS SHOW SYNOPTIC WINDS INCREASING TO 15-18 KT TONIGHT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SEAS BUILDING TO NEARLY 5 FT NEAR AND EAST OF CAPE FEAR. TWO EXPERIMENTAL NAM RUNS UTILIZING DIFFERENT MODEL PHYSICS MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT WHICH DISRUPTS THE WIND FIELDS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND RESULTS IN MUCH LOWER WIND SPEEDS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY ALONG THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM OUR FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THOSE TWO SCENARIOS AND HAS WINDS BUILDING TO 12-15 KT OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO NO HIGHER THAN 4 FT AT 20 MILES FROM SHORE. NWS CHARLESTON ALERTED US TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG NEAR TYBEE ISLAND...HILTON HEAD AND EDISTO BEACH THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SEA FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG OUR PORTION OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS WELL. WE ARE INCLUDING PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST WITHIN 5 MILES OF SHORE TONIGHT ALONG THE GRAND STRAND AND NEAR GEORGETOWN. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH OUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND THE LOCAL SWAN MODEL IS INDICATING THE SEAS WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AROUND MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT OFF SHORE WINDS ON THURSDAY. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...POST FRONT COLD SURGE IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE FRI WILL DROP CLOSER TO 10 KT BY SAT MORNING AS GRADIENT. WEAK COASTAL TROF TAKING SHAPE WILL INDUCE A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW. GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE. ADVISORY WORTHY SEAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DROP TO 3 TO 4 FT BY FRI NIGHT AND REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE THROUGH SUN. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HAWKINS UPDATED NEAR TERM...DOUGH NEAR TERM...ARMSTRONG SHORT TERM...HAWKINS LONG TERM...III AVIATION...LOEWENTHAL  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 030818 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 318 AM CDT MON OCT 3 2011 .TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH GENERAL BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING CONTROL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER ERN CONUS HAS RETROGRADED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD OVER PAST 24 HOURS AS SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND FEATURE. THIS RETROGRESSION WL RESULT IN A MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW OVER LAKE MI TODAY AND MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE. HOWEVER DRIER AIR MASS AND WARMER LOW LEVELS REDUCING THE DELTA-T WILL MINIMIZE THREAT FOR LAKE CLOUDS TODAY. FROM AVHRR IMAGER...LAKE SFC TEMP RANGES FROM THE MID 50S AT MID-LAKE TO NEAR 60 CLOSER TO SHORE IN THE SHALLOWER WATERS. GFS DEWPTS ONCE AGAIN TOO WARM BY 5 DEGREES EARLY THIS MRNG SO WL BACK OFF SLIGHTLY THIS AFTN FROM GUIDANCE NUMBERS. HOWEVER DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN SUNDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT WARMER THIS MORNING...MORE LOCATIONS SHOULD BREAK INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL CWA. ONSHORE WINDS AND MORE MIXING WL KEEP TEMPS COOLER IN THE EAST. UPPER LOW OVER PA/MD AREA BEGINS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING TROFFING OVER WRN CONUS INTO ERN PACIFIC SHIFTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIGHTLY EWD. LINGERING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL RH AND LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. .TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED...SUGGESTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PARKED IN THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD BY WEDNESDAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A BEAUTIFUL WEEK AND WEEKEND AHEAD. COULD BE A FEW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A COUPLE WEAK WAVES WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE MILDER TEMPS...HAVE BUMPED HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO...NOW EXPECTING TEMPS TO APPROACH 80 IN THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE LAKE THE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND...RUNNING A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE A BIT EAST OF SOUTH AT TIMES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WHEN THEY ARE NOT...A LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY TURN THE FLOW ONSHORE IN THE EAST. GRADIENT FLOW MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH SATURDAY TO PUSH THE WARMEST TEMPS TO THE LAKE. OVERALL THOUGH...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE COOLER TOWARD THE LAKE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...HIGHER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL KEEP ANY FOG PATCHY AND LIGHT EARLY THIS MORNING... EXCEPT IN THE WI RVR VLY. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS EXPCD TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER THREAT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. FEW-SCT ST MAY FORM OVER LAKE AND AFFECT FAR ERN CWA LATER TODAY. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...MBK TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KILM 130519 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 119 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAKENING FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NORTH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MODEST HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR MID-AUGUST. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WAS ON THE ORDER OF 70 PERCENT OF OUR FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY. SOME NOTABLE TOTALS INCLUDE 1.55 INCHES AT ILM...2.17 INCHES AT THE KINGS GRANT (WILMINGTON) MESONET SITE...AND 1.78 INCHES AT THE SUNNY POINT MILITARY TERMINAL. AT THE SURFACE THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE BEAUFORT SC VICINITY AND IS BEST IDENTIFIABLE IN THE WIND DIRECTION FIELDS WITH A SHIFT FROM SOUTH WINDS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. POES TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SUGGESTS MODELS MAY BE UNDERPLAYING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WITH 2.25 INCHES OBSERVED OFF THE SC/GA COAST. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTH TODAY...MAINTAINING LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE AND CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL NO CAPPING AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE LAST TWO SREF ENSEMBLES SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...PERHAPS HIGHER THAN SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z GFS MOS. CELL MOVEMENT SHOULD BE TOWARD THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH...STILL SLOW ENOUGH GIVEN THE EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS TO OCCUR. ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED RISK OF A WET MICROBURST SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS UNLIKELY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY... GENERALLY UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT 70-75. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...LONG AWAITED PATTERN CHANGE IN FULL SWING AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL BE POISED TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. GOOD CHANCE THAT MANY PLACES WILL SEE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY WHEN THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION. SPC DOES HAVE OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND OR EVEN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON MONDAY WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN H/5 RIDGE TEMPORARILY NOSES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BEGIN DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OFFSHORE EARLY ON MONDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. OVERALL EXPECT DRY WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH POPS INCREASING ON FRIDAY AS UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION IMPROVES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 MOST LOCATIONS FOR HIGHS...AND A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70 FOR LOWS. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 06Z...DUE TO NUMEROUS MESO-HIGHS AND MOIST SOILS FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN. BUT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE INHIBITED BY MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND RATHER STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR AT FLO/LBT WITH TEMPO IFR EVEN POSSIBLE AT LBT. AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR...BUT THERE COULD BE TEMPO PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH SHALLOW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THROUGH SUNRISE. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE INDICATIONS OF AN EARLY START TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS/MVFR CEILINGS AND TEMPO IFR AT THE TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON AT FLO/CRE/MYR AND BY LATE AFTERNOON AT LBT/ILM. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...A WEAK NEARLY-STATIONARY FRONT IN THE BEAUFORT SC VICINITY WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE NORTH TODAY...BECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED WITH TIME. WINDS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY HAVE A STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT WITH WINDS AT THE CURRENT HOUR EASILY SUSTAINED AT 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS LATER TODAY SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND WITH SOME DECREASE IN SPEED AS WELL. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE RATHER WIDESPREAD... ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHIFTS INLAND WITH RISING TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE BEACHES. STORM MOTION WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH. REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAINFALL IS LARGEST EXPECTED THREAT WITH TODAY'S SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SEAS HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 4 FT WITH 6 SECOND PERIODS...A CONSEQUENCE OF THE LARGE ZONE OF EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SEAS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWERING WIND SPEEDS. SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY TO AROUND 15 KTS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INCREASED WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 4 FT ON SUNDAY. STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER WE WILL SEE INCREASED SWELL WAVE ENERGY FROM DISTANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES. THIS WILL DEPEND UPON THEIR DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY. LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY...WHERE IT WILL STALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF LONG TERM. THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT TO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL MEAN A LOOSE GRADIENT AND LIGHT WINDS. SEAS WILL START OUT IN THE 4 FT RANGE...BUT WILL DECAY TO AROUND 2 OR 3 FT AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. AS WITH THE SHORT TERM...UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS TO HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL CONTRIBUTION WE COULD SEE TO SWELL WAVE ENERGY FROM DISTANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES...SO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST COULD SEE A SUBSTANTIAL REVISION. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...REK LONG TERM...REK AVIATION...MRR  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KLUB 112015 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 315 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011 .SHORT TERM... MUCH QUIETER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS 12Z UPA ANALYSIS INDICATES THE REGION IS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING TROF LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DEEP...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TRYING TO DRIFT IN FROM THE WEST. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALSO HELP COOL THINGS DOWN ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MIN TEMPS TOMORROW MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RAPIDLY SWING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK RIDGE GLIDES OVER THE REGION. THIS QUICK TRANSITION BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW THE LEE SURFACE TROF TO REESTABLISH A POSITION ALONG THE TX/NM STATE LINE. DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE TROF AND THE RESULTANT INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. HOWEVER...SPEEDS SHOULD MAX OUT BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. MAX TEMPS TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE A BIT WARMER THANKS TO THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND CONTINUED AMPLE INSOLATION THROUGH THE DAY. JORDAN && .LONG TERM... NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN SLIM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. UA RIDGING WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...AS A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL ENSUE BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE DRYLINE BEING SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. HENCE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 10 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS /AOA 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS/ BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL SEND A FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION. IF THE FRONT BEHAVES AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM SOLUTION...FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST FOR A LIMITED PERIOD OF TIME AS THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALL OTHER SOLUTIONS ON THE OTHER-HAND STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE/FAR NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...BEFORE RETREATING NORTH BY THU MORNING AS THE DRYLINE TAKES SHAPE. THUS...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED. FURTHERMORE...THE NAM SOLUTION HINTS AT PRECIP ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS THE FAR NERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTIONABLE POPS ATTM AS THE NAM IS THE ONLY SOLUTION SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY. THE NEXT IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO MOVE NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY WITH FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND SOUNDINGS HINTING AT LOW CLOUDS EARLY THU MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS...WITH LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE NERN ZONES. SYNOPTIC LIFT DOES NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANT AND THUS INCREASING CLOUDS APPEARS MORE PROBABLE ATTM. BY THE AFTERNOON...THE DRYLINE WILL SURGE EASTWARD AND BE SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...WITH WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO/SLIGHTLY BELOW 10 PERCENT. WIND SPEEDS APPEAR RATHER BREEZY TO POSSIBLY WINDY /AOA 30 KTS PER MOS GUIDANCE/ AND THUS DUE TO RECENT FIRE ACTIVITY...CRITICALLY DRY FUELS AND ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS...WILL ONCE AGAIN CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ENSUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THUS INDUCE A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREAFTER...SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO A SFC HIGH EAST OF THE CWA. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FRI THROUGH SUN AS THE TRANSPORT OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE COMMENCES ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. PER THE ECMWF AND GFS...AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY MORNING...THUS DRIVING DOWN A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. BEST PRECIP IS DEPICTED EAST OF THE REGION NEAREST THE BEST MOISTURE AXIS. && .FIRE WEATHER... GOES 3.9 MICRON AND MODIS/POES 3.7 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW ONLY ONE FIRE START SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE KENT/SCURRY COUNTY LINE. GOOD NEWS IS THAT THEY ARE NOT SHOWING ANY LARGE FLARE-UPS ON THE SWENSON/STONEWALL AND KING COUNTY FIRE. DECREASING WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO HELP WITH ANY CONTINUED FIREFIGHTING EFFORTS THROUGH TONIGHT. BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK MARGINAL TOMORROW FOR MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA...BUT SOUTH WIND OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND RH VALUES BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER OVER THE REGION. WILL HOLD ONTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF SHIFTS TO MAKE SURE THE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THE COMPUTER MODELS FOR TOMORROW. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS...AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVES EAST NORTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. THE DISTURBANCES PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WILL INDUCE A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION AND PROMOTE BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. COMPUTER MODELS STRUGGLE WITH A COLD FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS STALL THE FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BEFORE RETREATING IT NORTH BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. ONE SOLUTION HOWEVER DRIVES THE FROPA ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD LESSEN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE A POINT IN TIME WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 10 PERCENT /EXCEPT AOA 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR ROLLING PLAINS/. WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZY WINDS COMBINED WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUELS AND ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. THE BEST DAY IN REGARDS TO WIND SPEEDS APPEARS TO BE ON THURSDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH NEAREST THE REGION. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT CWA-WIDE...WITH 20-FOOT WIND SPEEDS RANGING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH /VERSUS 15 TO 20 MPH ON WED/. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 38 78 41 77 39 / 0 0 0 10 10 TULIA 36 80 43 78 41 / 0 0 10 10 10 PLAINVIEW 39 80 44 82 44 / 0 0 0 10 10 LEVELLAND 39 80 46 84 46 / 0 0 0 10 10 LUBBOCK 44 81 48 85 47 / 0 0 0 10 10 DENVER CITY 38 80 46 88 48 / 0 0 0 0 10 BROWNFIELD 38 80 46 88 47 / 0 0 0 0 10 CHILDRESS 44 82 48 85 50 / 0 0 10 10 10 SPUR 44 82 48 86 50 / 0 0 10 10 10 ASPERMONT 44 83 49 87 52 / 0 0 10 10 10 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>044. && $$ 14/29  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KCHS 300755 AFDCHS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 355 AM EDT WED MAR 30 2011 ...BENEFICIAL RAINS TO FALL OVER DROUGHT AND FIRE STRICKEN AREAS... .SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 30/07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA NEAR NEAR NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A SHARPENING WARM FRONT WAS NOTED EAST OF THE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST...DIPPING SOUTH OVER NORTH FLORIDA NEAR GAINSVILLE THEN LINKING UP WITH A COASTAL FRONT CURRENTLY FORMING ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE VIRGINA TIDEWATER INTO SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH IN-SITU WEDGING FIRMLY IN PLACE. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE TEMPERATURES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE TSTM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. RAIN HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING DESPITE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE WEDGE. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE GENERALLY RUNNING 50-100MB PER RUC ISENTROPIC 4-PANELS... SUGGESTING MOST OF THE LIFT IS GOING TOWARDS LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUD FORMATION VERSUS SHOWER PRODUCTION. ALL OF OUR AVAILABLE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO BLOSSOM TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THEN STEADILY BUILD NORTH THROUGH SUNRISE. RADARS TO THE SOUTH INDICATE SHOWERS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO BREAK OUT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS INDICATING THIS PROCESS MAY ALREADY BE WELL UNDERWAY. ONLY ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNRISE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ELEVATED TSTM OR TWO...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE BEACHES. LOW PRESSURE OVER LOUISIANA WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT TODAY AND APPROACH THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS ITS SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THE IN-SITU WEDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ENOUGH TODAY TO ALLOW THE WARM SECTOR AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO PENETRATE NORTH/INLAND INTO THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THE 30/00Z NAM-12 WOULD SUGGEST ONLY A VERY SMALL AREA ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WILL MOVE INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE WEDGE HOLDING FIRM FARTHER INLAND. THE LOWER RESOLUTION GFS IS MUCH QUICKER AND AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EROSION OF THE WEDGE WHICH DOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE WITH DIABATIC PROCESSES BECOMING STRONGLY REINFORCED AS WIDESPREAD RAINS FALL INTO THE CORE OF THE WEDGE. WILL GENERALLY FAVOR THE COOLER NAM-12 WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PINNING DOWN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXTREMELY TRICKY WITH THE WEDGE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN PLACE AND WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON PRECIPITATION RATES AND WARM FRONT PLACEMENT. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 AT THE COAST AND FAR SOUTH...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR INLAND AREAS WHERE HIGHS COULD EASILY STALL IN THE MID-UPPER 50S SHOULD MODERATE RAINS INITIATE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BECOMING TOGETHER FOR SOME BENEFICIAL RAINS TO FALL ACROSS DROUGHT AND FIRE STRICKEN AREAS. GOES/POES BLENDED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCTS SHOW A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ADVECTING STEADILY NORTHWARD ACROSS FLORIA WITH PWATS AS HIGH AS 1.75 INCHES. THE PLUME WAS SAMPLED WELL AT 30/00Z WITH THE KTBW RAOB MEASURING A PWAT OF 1.63 INCHES. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTH THIS MORNING AND BE SOLIDLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY AS SYNOPTIC DYNAMICS PEAK...RANGING FROM 1.45 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH TO 1.70 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. PWATS THIS HIGH ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. TROPICAL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH IMPRESSIVE Q-G FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE SETTING UP BETWEEN DUAL JET STREAKS OVER NORTH CAROLINA AND ALABAMA WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAINS...MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. GENERAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.5-1 INCH APPEAR LIKELY WITH AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 1.25-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND UP ALONG THE COAST WHERE A BAND OF MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY TRAIN FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTS A SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND SPREAD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY SEVERELY CURTAIL STRONG THETA ADVECTION THIS FAR NORTH AND COULD LIMIT RAIN AMOUNTS. THIS WILL HAVE TO WATCHED MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDING DEPICT NO ANY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY...BUT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH SHOWALTER VALUES OF -1 TO -2C. WILL FORECAST POPS NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH A CHANCE FOR TSTMS FOR ALL ZONES TODAY AND MENTION THAT THE RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES...MAINLY SOUTH AND COASTAL AREAS. FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH OF A CONCERN OUTSIDE OF URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT DARIEN AND LUDOWICI SUGGEST LITTLE IF ANY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S. SATURATED SOUNDINGS AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 5-5.5 C/KM ARE CERTAINLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE TSTM FORMATION DESPITE IMPRESSIVE Q-G FORCING AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 45-50 KT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SORT OF SEVERE MCS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF WHICH MAY BRUSH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A LUDOWICI-HALFMOON LANDING LINE. ALTHOUGH ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH CONVECTIVE INERTIA TO PRODUCE AN REPORT OF TWO OF WIND DAMAGE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. A BRIEF TORNADIC SPIN-UP COULD ALSO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WEDGE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK FOR LONG/MCINTOSH AND LIBERTY COUNTIES IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT THIS FAR NORTH ATTM. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE STRONGEST FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE AS DOES LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...BUT EXTENSIVE LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH WEAK SPOKES OF VORTICITY PASSING THROUGH THE LAST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP A RISK FOR DRIZZLE AND/OR ISOLATED- SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FROM LATE EVENING ON WHICH COULD RESULT IN FOG SOME OF IT DENSE. WILL FORECAST 30-40 PERCENT POPS THIS EVENING THEN DROPPING TO 20-30 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS. LATER SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO BETTER PIN DOWN THE FOG POTENTIAL AS ADDITIONAL DATA SETS ARE RECEIVED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MCINTOSH COUNTY. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...ALTHOUGH MINOR TRACK AND TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO EXIST. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT LIFTING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES OR JUST OFF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. OBVIOUSLY THE TRACK WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES...WITH ONLY MINOR IMPACTS TO THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST. THE AREA WILL BE OVERSPREAD WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG FORCING FROM THE ENTRANCE REGION OF 160+ KNOT H25 JET...SO WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS ALL LOCALES ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SO WILL KEEP THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL ALLOW THINGS TO DRY OUT THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHILE KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM SHOW AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 100+ KNOT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED H25 JET. GIVEN THE WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL COVERAGE...BUT THERE REMAINS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THURSDAY AND WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE REGION. WILL TREND FORECAST TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM SOLUTION...WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...AND IN LOW/MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREA WIDE. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES OR JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE. WILL THEN CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD REBOUND BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL UNDER A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. WE EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 70/LOWER 70S NORTH TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AND IN THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN LOCALES. SATURDAY...THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT ANY MORNING CLOUDS TO GIVE WAY TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BY MID/LATE MORNING. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 70S MOST AREAS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN RAIN FREE WEATHER. FOR NOW WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...AND REFINE AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL MOST PERIODS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY DETERIORATE AT KCHS/KSAV TODAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS FIRM AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT LOWERING CIGS THROUGH SUNRISE WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE BY SUNRISE. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY BUILD-DOWN FOG AT BOTH TERMINALS WITH VSBYS POSSIBLY DROPPING AS LOW AS 4-5 MILES. RAIN WILL BLOSSOM OVER THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS WILL AFFECT KSAV WHERE VSBYS COULD DROP TO AS LOW AS 1/2SM IN +RA IN A WINDOW FROM 18-21Z. VSBYS LOOK TO GO NO LOWER THAN 1 1/2SM AT KCHS...BUT STEADY RAINS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS LIFR TO LOW-END IFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY INTO THE LATE EVENING. THE STEADIER RAINS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY SUNSET BUT CONSIDERABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A RE-INTENSIFICATION OF ISENTROPIC ASSENT WILL KEEP AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND LOW CIGS IN PLACE. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DENSE FOG COULD FORM TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS FAR OUT. WINDS WILL BE ALL OVER THE PLACE TODAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG THE LINGERING WEDGE FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW 12 KT. AMENDMENTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE ISSUED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS RADAR...VSBYS AND CIG TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE... THERE ARE NO MAJOR CONCERNS THROUGH TONIGHT AS BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW FLAG THRESHOLDS. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A COASTAL FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. RAIN WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY WITH VSBYS DROPPING TO LESS THAN 1 NM. FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS WHICH MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG. THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE WATERS ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY BUILD BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD SEE SOME MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS64 KCRP 180337 AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 937 PM CST THU FEB 17 2011 .DISCUSSION...11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY/METARS/COAST GUARD REPORTS REVEAL RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/LOW CLOUDS OVER THE ERN CWFA/ALONG THE COAST...WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE. EXPECT A MIXTURE OF STRATUS/PATCHY-AREAS FOG AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. AVHRR SST PATTERN REVEALS COOLER VALUES OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS/WARMER OFFSHORE. FURTHER...NAM 0-1KM LAPSE RATES LOWER NEARSHORE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT 10-15KT WIND NEARSHORE/15KT OFFSHORE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST THU FEB 17 2011/ DISCUSSION...PLEASE SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION. AVIATION...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE HOWEVER REMAIN A STEADY 15 TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR MIXING. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN OVERNIGHT WITH THE HELP OF A 30 KNOT LLJ FORMING ALONG THE COAST. DECOUPLING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TAF SITES...WITH MOMENTS OF IFR/LIFR AROUND KVCT..KALI AND KCRP. THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE BY LATE MORNING...AS WELL AS WITH CEILINGS LIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST. TAF SITE KVCT WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST THU FEB 17 2011/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...STRATUS CONTINUES TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WITH ONLY THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BEND STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY. WITH A 35 KNOT LLJ ALONG THE COASTAL BEND AND A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BAYS AND LAND...BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH ARE CONTINUING TO OCCUR ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE LLJ WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING VERY LOW STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE LLJ A LITTLE STRONGER ALONG THE COAST THAN EARLIER RUNS...SO MAY BE LOW STRATUS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND WITH AREAS OF FOG INLAND. CANNOT RULE OUT DENSE FOG FORMING INLAND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. NAM VISIBILITY IS SHOWING AREAS OF SEA FOG POSSIBILITY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT STARTING WITH THE NORTHERN BAYS. IF THIS DEVELOPS...FOG MAY PUSH INLAND OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE HILL COUNTRY ON FRIDAY. IT IS NOT GOING TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER AS THE INVERSION REMAINS VERY STRONG ABOVE 850-900MB. MAY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT NOT EVEN WORTH MENTIONING IN THE FORECAST...SO LEFT SILENT 10 POPS. 850MB TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY...SO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER. OTHER THAN THAT IT WILL BE MORE OF THE SAME WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S. FRIDAY NIGHT...AREAS TO WIDESPREAD SEA FOG IS EXPECTED FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. THIS IS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE COAST. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...NOT MUCH CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FROM LAST FEW DAYS. THE BREEZY AND WARM SPRING-LIKE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS A WRN US TROUGH BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS WILL KEEP THE MODERATE SSE FLOW GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/ STRONGER WINDS LATE SAT AND ESP SUN AS ONE TROUGH WEAKENS AND LIFTS ENE ACROSS THE PLAINS ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER S/WV THAT RE-CARVES THE WRN US TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST TROUGH IS NOW SHOWN TO HOLD ITS STRENGTH A LITTLE BETTER WHILE EJECTING ENE AND BECAUSE OF THIS MODELS NOW SHOW THE ASSOC FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION AND STALLING IT OFFSHORE...AS OPPOSED TO OVER S TX IN PREVIOUS RUNS. EITHER WAY...THIS LOOKS LIKE A RATHER WEAK FRONT WITH ONLY MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPS WHICH FALL ONLY TO NEAR CLIMO. WILL CONTINUE W/ THE SLT CHC POPS W/ THE FROPA W/ LACK OF MOISTURE DEPTH AND INSTABILITY BEING THE LIMITING FACTORS FOR SIG PRECIP. THE BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS A WARM FRONT ON WED...LEADING TO MORE LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SHRA. THE MOST INTERESTING THING SHOWN IN MED RANGE MODELS IS BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN YET ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH. THERE ARE PLENTY OF -20S TO -40S IN WRN CANADA AND ALASKA RIGHT NOW...SO WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED JET DEPICTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF DRIVE THIS AIRMASS SOUTH AS LAST FEW RUNS HAVE SHOWN (WHICH 1050 MB HIGH CENTER AT SFC). PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THIS UNFOLD. MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS UNTIL 01Z. WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BECOME 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS AND THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST WEAKENS. AREAS OF SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT STARTING WITH THE NORTHERN BAYS...WITH PATCHY SEA FOG IN THE SOUTHERN BAYS. AREAS TO WIDESPREAD SEA FOG IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS WEAKEN AND TURN MORE EASTERLY. FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. IT IS BREEZY ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE. HOWEVER...RH VALUES REMAIN 40-60 PERCENT. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG ON FRIDAY AND RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER. HOWEVER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY STILL EXIST ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 80S. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 63 74 62 76 61 / 10 10 10 10 10 VICTORIA 62 76 58 75 59 / 10 10 10 10 10 LAREDO 66 86 65 85 63 / 10 10 10 10 10 ALICE 62 81 61 80 61 / 10 10 10 10 10 ROCKPORT 63 70 62 71 62 / 10 10 10 10 10 COTULLA 62 82 59 80 59 / 10 10 10 10 10 KINGSVILLE 62 80 62 79 61 / 10 10 10 10 10 NAVY CORPUS 64 70 65 65 63 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ WC/87...SHORT TERM  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KDTX 190159 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 859 PM EST TUE JAN 18 2011 .UPDATE... WELL DEFINED SURGE OF COLD/DRY ADVECTION IS RETURNING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TO JANUARY. KDTX 19.00 RAOB DEPICTS SATURATION THROUGH THE LOWEST 5KFT - HOWEVER IT ALSO SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRYING ALOFT- MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN ANY NWP DEPICTION. LOCALIZED POCKETS OF DEEPER SATURATION HAVE ONLY MATERIALIZED IN FLURRIES. THEREFORE... WILL TAMP DOWN THE MENTION TO SCATTERED FLURRIES AWAY FROM LAKE HURON. LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE ON THE SOUTH BASIN IS TARDY /AS PER THE ABSENCE OF ECHOS FROM EXETER/. FURTHERMORE...THE LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE /ON BOTH HURON AND MICHIGAN/ IS MUCH WEAKER THAN PROJECTED BY THE SUITE OF HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS. THE ERRORS APPEAR TO BE PARTIALLY ATTRIBUTED TO INCORRECT LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES /AVHRR IMAGERY INDICATES SKIN TEMPS ~2C LOWER THAN NWP SKIN FIELDS/. STILL THINK SOME SNOW SHOWER BANDING WILL DEVELOP...JUST TO A LESSER MAGNITUDE. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FLOW CONFIGURATION...BUT LOWERED THE AMOUNTS IN DEFERENCE TO THE LACK OF RESPONSE AND SEEMINGLY OVERZEALOUS GUIDANCE...THUS FAR. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 616 PM EST TUE JAN 18 2011 WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXIT STAGE RIGHT INTO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO...WINDS HAVE FLOPPED AROUND TO NORTHERLY...THUS INITIATING COLD/DRY ADVECTIVE PROCESSES NEAR THE SURFACE. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS HAVE BEEN STEADILY IMPROVING THE LAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT THIS TENDENCY TO SPILL OVER TO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE FORECAST. APPEARS THAT THE CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT AS THE DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LIMIT TO THE RISE AS AN INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF 3KFT. ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING SHOULD ERODE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD FIELD BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 403 PM EST TUE JAN 18 2011 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THE WINTRY MIX ENDED ON SCHEDULE THIS MORNING AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLID OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. IN THE LOW LEVELS...NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS BRINGING AN INFLUX OF COLDER AIR WITH STEADILY FALLING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. ONLY REAL FORECAST CONCERN FOR TONIGHT FOCUSES ON CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DOWNWIND OF LAKE HURON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE LAKE. THE WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL IS RATHER SMALL AS THE COOLER AIR/NORTHERLY FLOW DOES NOT REALLY GET ESTABLISHED OVER THE LAKE UNTIL EARLY EVENING AND MOISTURE DEPTH DROPS BELOW 3-4K FEET AFTER 06Z. DURING THIS TIME THE FLOW THROUGH 850MB VEERS SLIGHTLY FROM A NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW. THE LONGEST DURATION OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD IMPACT HURON COUNTY BUT SHOULD NOT BE VERY INTENSE. LOCALIZED TOTALS AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SHORELINE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EXTENDING DOWN THE COASTLINE TO PORT HURON AND INLAND TO A BAD AXE TO SANDUSKY LINE. ELSEWHERE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO MEASURE AND WILL KEEP POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS. DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES ARE WELL BELOW ZERO AND AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR WILL STEADILY PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT...LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY GIVEN THE COOLING WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN UPSTREAM AND FORECAST MINS RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SAGINAW VALLEY TO THE UPPER TEENS FOR METRO DETROIT. LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY WEAKENING GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE COLD AND DRY AIR MASS BROUGHT INTO THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT. THIS AIR MASS WILL BE DRY ENOUGH IN THE LOW LEVELS TO SHUT DOWN SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE HURON AND EAT AWAY AT ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE BROUGHT IN BY THE NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE. SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO TODAY SUPPORTS MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT SHOW THE CONVECTIVE DEPTH BEING DRIVEN BELOW 900 MB/3000 FEET DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME REBOUND IS INDICATED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS A LITTLE MORE OVER THE LAKE BUT THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THEN AND FORCE ANY SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD MID LAKE. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE EVAPORATION OF THE MODEST MOISTURE SUPPLY ACCOMPANYING THE WEAK SHORT WAVE, WILL ENSURE DRY CONDITIONS AROUND SE MICHIGAN. AFTER HIGHS ONLY IN THE THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S, THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. READINGS WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD DISTRIBUTION WHICH WILL BE COMPLICATED BY THE PASSING WEAK SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY. THIS SETS UP A PERIOD OF OPEN SKY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT IN THE TRI CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO MAKE A RUN AT ZERO. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN OVER ALL OF SE MICHIGAN BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF SAID NEXT SYSTEM AND LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF LOCATIONS NEAR THE OHIO BORDER. THE KEY TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE IN THE DETAILS OF PHASING BETWEEN THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE ONE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AS IT STANDS NOW, THE 12Z MODELS ARE LOCKED IN ON A TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH PUTS THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF ITS MOISTURE PATTERN OVER OUR AREA DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK AND THE TRACK OF THE NORTHERN SYSTEM THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MAINTAINS SUFFICIENT SEPARATION TO PREVENT MUCH NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SO, WITH FORCING LIMITED TO MODEST MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT, WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A HIGH POP/LOW QPF SCENARIO RESULTING IN AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD, A LITTLE LESS IN THE TRI CITIES REGION THAT WILL BE MORE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY WILL USHER IN AN ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT WILL MAKE FRIDAY JUST PLAIN COLD BUT DRY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A FEW FLURRIES DURING THE DAYTIME. OUTSIDE OF THE COLD WIND, THIS WILL BE A QUIET DAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL SET TO ARRIVE SATURDAY. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF LOOK TOO DEEP WITH THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE EAST COAST. EVEN IF THE WAVE IS NOT EXAGGERATED IN THE MODELS, THE SOLUTIONS STILL ONLY MANAGE A FEW 100THS QPF WHICH IS AN INDICATION OF HOW LITTLE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE TO WORK WITH IN THE ARCTIC AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. MODEST LONG WAVE AMPLIFICATION WILL BE INITIATED IN PART BY A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DIVING INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE DEPICTION OF THIS ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND THROUGH THE BROAD LONG WAVE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS IS SHOWN TO START A ROUND OF UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE PLAINS DURING SUNDAY WITH SOME FORM OF THE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BY THEN WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE INTERACTION OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM CENTRAL CANADA BUT WITH ENOUGH PHASING INDICATED TO RESULT IN A RESPECTABLE SYSTEM IN OUR AREA FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. MARINE... COLD AIR WILL MAKE A RETURN TO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ON MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WAVE ACTION OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS OVER ICE COVERED MARINE AREAS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS AND WAVE CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH THURSDAY EVEN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN ARRIVE FRIDAY ON STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BUT THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF AND EASE UP AGAIN BY SATURDAY TYPICAL OF THE ACTIVE/CHANGEABLE PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LAKE HURON...NONE. LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE.......MANN AVIATION.....MANN SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM....BT MARINE.......KEC/BT YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS66 KSGX 060514 AFDSGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA 912 PM PST WED JAN 5 2011 .SYNOPSIS...FAIR INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME MARINE LAYER CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...OTHERWISE DRY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA INCLUDING SAN DIEGO... ORANGE...SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO AND WEST RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING ASIDE FROM SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS. IT COOLED OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE DRY AIR AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS...EXCEPT IN SOME OF THE WINDER SPOTS IN THE FOOTHILLS WHERE STRONG OFFSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAKENING OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD BRING ANOTHER FAIR AND MILD DAY ON THURSDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE LOCAL GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND PASSES AGAIN DURING THE DAY...BUT THEY SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY STRENGTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 04Z SHOWED A CUT-OFF STORM CENTER ABOUT 600 NM WSW OF SAN DIEGO WITH BANDS OF ENHANCED CONVECTION CIRCULATING AROUND IT. POES DERIVED TPW IMAGERY SHOWED VALUES OF AROUND ONE INCH HAD WRAPPED COMPLETELY AROUND THE SYSTEM...HELPING TO SUPPORT THE CONVECTION. A DEEPER AREA OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WAS EVIDENT WELL SOUTH OF THE STORM CENTER...SOUTH OF 20N AND WAS SHOWING NO SIGN OF ADVANCING NORTHWARD. THE LOW CENTER SHOULD BEGIN MOVING EAST LATER TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE COAST FRI MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE ALL KEPT THE SYSTEM INTACT WITH A DECENT JET AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE...BUT DEVELOP LITTLE...IF ANY PRECIPITATION OVER SOCAL AS IT MOVES THROUGH FRI. EXPECT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS...BUT THEY WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A DEEP DRY LAYER AND SHOULD BE SCATTERED. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY...BUT BASED ON CONSISTENT MODEL GUIDANCE...PARAMETERS TO SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT JUST ARE NOT THERE. IT SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FRI UNDER THE LOW. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY CAUSE AREAS OF COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING. EXCEPT FOR THE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR IN DRY NRLY FLOW ALOFT. CONTINUED COOL SATURDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THAT WILL PROBABLY NOT CAUSE ANY PRECIP BUT SHOULD BRIEFLY DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER FOR MORE CLOUDS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DECREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS MARINE LAYER CLOUDINESS AND GRADUAL WARMING. && .AVIATION... 060330Z...VARIABLE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AOA FL150 AND UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. LOCAL GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES AND CANYONS WITH ASSOCIATED UDDFS AND LLWS THROUGH 18-20Z. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...JAD AVIATION/MARINE...SS  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 080919 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 319 AM CST MON NOV 8 2010 TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. INITIAL SURGE OF ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN SCT- BKN CS ACROSS WI OVERNIGHT. MORE SCT CS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM CLOSER TO STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN ERN SODAK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RH OVR ERN NE INTO WRN IA. LOW LEVELS REMAIN PARCHED THIS PERIOD...BUT ENUF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ELEVATED MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT FEW-SCT CS AND PERHAPS SOME HIGHER AC TODAY AS SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS WRN WI/MN. SHOULD STILL MANAGE M/S CONDITIONS HOWEVER WITH WARM AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING MIXING TO 925H. EXPC TEMPS TO STILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN ON SUN MOST AREAS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL COOL LAKESHORE AREAS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN THE AFTN AS LATEST MODIS/AVHRR IMAGERY HAS SST IN NEARSHORE IN THE 6 TO 10 C RANGE. QUIET TNGT WITH TEMPS SLIPPING BACK TO CLOSER TO COOLER MAV NUMBERS MOST AREAS. TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL US IN REPSONSE TO UPPER TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ON ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPANNING THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. MILD FLOW CONTINUES THOUGH SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY WILL OFFER SOME COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CWA. BETTER INLAND MIXING AND LESS LAKE INFLUENCE. WENT WITH ECMWF COMPROMISE APPROACH ON THE 925 TEMP STRUCTURE WITH NAM LOOKING TOO WARM AND GFS TOO COLD. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM STRONGLY NEGATIVE TILTED SHORTWAVE DRAWS CLOSER ON EASTERN SIDE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL TO THE WEST. 850 MILLIBAR LOW LEVEL JET AXIS WELL WEST OF WISCONSIN. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS QUITE PARCHED. WILL GO WITH THE DRY LOOK FOR WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHORTWAVE ENERGY DEPICTED TO AFFECT AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH NAM MORE AGGRSSIVE WITH DCVA. NAM ALSO SHOWING MORE COLUMN MOISTURE THAN THE GFS. EVEN STILL NAM HAS QPF JUST GRAZING THE NORTHERN CWA. FOR NOW THE SMALLISH POPS ARE STILL OK. THURSDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM WHAT IS LEFT OF THE BOUNDARY IS PROGGD TO EXTEND FROM ILLINOIS INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. 850 RIDGING POKES ACROSS WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY AFFECTING MN INTO NW WI BUT NOT MUCH TO LATCH ONTO HERE IN SRN WI. ECMWF THROWING OUT LIGHT AND SEEMINGLY RANDOM QPF INTO SRN WI THOUGH WILL SIDE WITH OTHER MODELS AND KEEP THE DRY LOOK. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM MODELS SHOW CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER JET AND 850 MILLIBAR BAROCLINIC ZONE BEING THE MAIN PLAYERS FOR PRECIPITATION. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME LIKELY POPS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOTS OF UNCERTAINLY WITH RESPECT TO THE 500 MILLIBAR PATTERN. GFS AND CANADIAN EVOLVE A CLOSED LOW RIGHT ON WI/IL BORDER 12Z SATURDAY WHILE ECMWF SHOWING A NORTHENR STREAM UPPER LOW BEING DOMINANT WHILE WHISKING A WEAKER REFLECTION OF THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD. HPC TENDS TO FAVOR THE LATTER AND THE ENSEMBLES. SATURDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR THAT ENDS UP GETTING WRAPPED BACK IN. ECMWF IS ACTUALLY COLDER THOUGH BULK OF PRECIP HAS ALREADY SHIFTED EAST. 850 TEMPS DROP TO -3 TO -5C BY 00Z SUNDAY BUT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS LEFTOVER. MAY NOT GET THROUGH THIS SYSTEM WITHOUT SEEING SOME FLAKES. SUNDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW GFS SHOWS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DUMBBELLING AROUND THE FIRST WAVE WHILE ECMWF SHOWING A SEPERATE PIECE OF ENERGY HEADING NORTHEAST IN A SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE WARMER ECMWF THERMAL PROFILE. && .AVIATION...PASSING CI ASSOCD WITH SHORT WAVE WL CONT TO AFFECT WI TODAY WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS TNGT AS NRN PLAINS SHORT WAVE PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST. LOWER LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY DURING THE PD. VFR CONDITIONS TO CONT WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE BY AFTN IN EAST. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR TODAY/TONIGHT/AVIATION/MARINE...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 070924 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 324 AM CST SUN NOV 7 2010 TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER WRN GTLAKES. APPEARS BOTH NAM AND GFS OVERDOING AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TODAY AS SOURCE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HENCE WL KNOCK DOWN DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPR 20S TO LOW 30S FOR THIS AFTN...WHICH COULD STILL BE TOO WARM. LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP RIGHT ALONG LAKESHORE IN SOME AREAS AFT 20Z AS PRESS GRADIENT WEAKENS...ALLOWING THERMAL GRADIENT TO TAKE OVER. LAKE BREEZE WOULD LIKELY REMAIN CLOSE TO SHORE DUE TO LINGERING SW FLOW INLAND. OTRW...925H TEMPS WARM TO AROUND 10C WHICH SHOULD HELP DAYTIME TEMPS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60...HENCE WL GO AOA WARMER MET NUMBERS. DRY AIRMASS WL ALSO HELP TEMPS WARM RAPIDLY. FEW HIGH CLOUDS COULD PUSH IN LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. MONDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN TAKING DECENT SHORTWAVE FROM SRN MN/NRN IA VICINITY TO NW WI. VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS ARE DECENT AND WAVE HAS A NEGATIVE TILT TO IT. 700 OMEGA IN PLACE...THOUGH COLUMN IS STILL BONE DRY. MIXING STILL PROGGD TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW THOUGH STILL THINK LOW 60S REACHABLE. TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL US IN REPSONSE TO UPPER TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ON ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SPANNING THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. MILD FLOW CONTINUES THOUGH SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY WILL OFFER SOME COOLING IN THE EAST. BETTER INLAND MIXING UP TO 900-925 MILLIBARS WITH 11-12C SUPPORTS SOME HIGHS REACHING PUSHING MID 60S. WEDNESDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW SHORTWAVE ON EASTERN SIDE OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. GFS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NOISIER WITH VORT PATTERN. CANADIAN DOES LEND SOME CREDENCE TO GFS SOLUTION...THOUGH ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING FURTHER NORTHWEST...THUS THE DRY LOOK. THURSDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM STRONG SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW FAVORS SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION AND THUS A SOLUTION LOOKING MORE LIKE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN RATHER THAN THE GFS. WILL KEEP THE FRONT MORE IN PLAY ACROSS THE CWA WHICH NECESSITATES POPS AND CONSENSUS IS IN LINE WITH THIS. FRIDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW WHILE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AMONGST THE MODELS IS IS A QUESTION MARK...CONSISTENT AMONGST THE MODELS IS THE 850 MILLIBAR BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN WI. GRANTED...ORIENTATION OF THE ZONE IS NOT CONSISTENT...BUT MODELS BOTH GENERATE QPF RELATED TO THE FORCING. THERE IS ALSO A SUGGESTION FROM THE MODELS OF SOME RIGHT REAR QUADRANT JET DYNAMICS AT PLAY. SATURDAY- CONFIDENCE...VERY LOW DRPROGS SHOW A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIATION. A TREND NOTED IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF IS TOWARDS A STRONGER SOLUTION CLOSER TOWARDS OUR AREA. GIVEN THE UPPER JET STREAM AND PROXIMITY OF BAROCLINIC ZONE THIS SEEMS TO HAVE MERIT...BUT OVERALL GIVEN THE INCONSISTENCIES AND LACK OF CONSESNSUS...HARD TO FEEL CERTAIN ABOUT MUCH. && .AVIATION...DRY AIRMASS PREVAILS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ELEVATED INVERSION PUTTING KIBOSH ON CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. CAN NOT RULE OUT FEW-SCT CI AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE TNGT AS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES WRN WI FROM CENTRAL PLAINS. && .MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVY FOR BORDERLINE WINDS AND WAVES THIS MRNG DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE MI. GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TOWARD OPEN WATERS. SHIP REPORT 10NM ENE OF SBM SHORE REPORTED 25KT SUSTAINED WINDS AT 06Z WHERE AVHRR SST SHOWED LAKE TEMPS AROUND 6C. SOME AREAS OF NEARSHORE REMAIN AROUND 10C SO GUSTINESS STILL LIKELY THIS MORNING BEFORE GRADIENT FURTHER WEAKENS. PRESS GRADIENT WEAKENS ENUF TO ALLOW LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR AVIATION/MARINE...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 160754 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 254 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2010 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. .TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH. AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING UNTIL ABOUT 8 OR 9 AM...MOSTLY WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY...AND THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SHEBOYGAN TO WEST BEND TO LAKE GENEVA WHERE THE WINDS ARE WEAKER. VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 3/4 TO 2 MILES EXPECTED...BUT NOT DENSE FOG WHICH STARTS AT 1/4 MILE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF OHIO RIVER VALLEY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PULL WARMER AIR INTO SOUTHERN WI TODAY...IN THE RANGE OF 12C TO +14C 925 MB TEMPERATURES IN THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF DRY COLD FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. WARMER TEMPERATURES TO REACH TO THE LAKESHORE ON GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. NO PCPN EXPECTED WITH FRONT AS MOISTURE LIMITED...WITH BETTER FORCING STAYING WELL NORTH CLOSER TO SHORT WAVE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON SUNDAY...SO LOWS AND HIGHS A FEW POINTS LOWER THAN ON SATURDAY. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY DUE TO MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. .SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. DIVERGENCE WITH RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET AIDING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SHEARED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITH SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN...BUT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN STILL GETTING SOME DIFF/L VORTICITY ADVECTION. INITIAL PCPN WILL BE VIRGA UNTIL VERTICAL COLUMN BECOME MOIST. FRONTO-FORCING AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE STILL PRESENT AS SHORT WAVE SWINGS THRU...WITH LINGERING EFFECTS INTO MONDAY. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. .MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. COLD AIR ADVECTION SOUTHERN WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. ON TUESDAY A 3RD WEAK SHORT WAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH MN INTO IA AND THEN IL...KEEPING MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED LIFT AWAY FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MAYBE SOME BANDS OF CLOUDS AT MOST FOR SOUTHERN WI. .WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM. AS WE GO FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE MODELS DIFFER ON AMPLITUDE AND DIGGING STRENGTH OF UPPER TROF OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. GFS IS DEEPER WHILE THE ECMWF IS FLATTER...SLOWER..AND MORE EAST WITH THE TROF. IF GFS PANS OUT WE WILL HAVE CHANCES OF PCPN AND MORE CLOUDS WITH SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE TROF. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN AND NEAR FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN COUNTY TO BE CONSISTENT WITH MY NEIGHBORS. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST GOING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH THE MAX NUMBERS SLOWLY WARMING THRU THE 60S FROM WED INTO FRI. && .AVIATION...SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY DVLP THIS MRNG IN BRIEF SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LINGER INTO THE AFTN. FEW-SCT CU MAY ALSO DEVELOP AS SFC FRONT PASSES THRU THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE...HWVR VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. ONLY PROBLEM IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AT KENW WITH MVFR FOG. EXPC PATCHY FOG AT KENW TO THIN AND DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MRNG AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INCREASES. && .MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING WEAK FRONT AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS LTR THIS MRNG...VEERING FROM MOSTLY THE SOUTH TO THE SW. WINDSPEEDS WILL REMAIN BLO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS TODAY. AFTER FROPA THIS EVE...LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR WARM LAKE SURFACE MAY ALLOW FEW GUSTS TO EXCEED 20KTS...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM SHORE. LAKE SURFACE TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 14-15C PER LATEST AVHRR/MODIS IMAGERY. FOR NOW...WL HOLD OFF ON SMALL CRAFT FOR TNGT AND LET LATER SHIFTS REEVALUATE. PRES GRADIENT LOOSENS SUN MRNG AS LOW LEVEL ADVECTION BECOMES NEUTRAL. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...34 AVIATION/MARINE...11  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 300825 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 325 AM CDT THU SEP 30 2010 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIP POTENTIAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN ASSESSING FROST/FREEZE DISTRIBUTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TODAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH DRIER DEW POINTS IN THE 40S ADVECTING IN WITH NNW WINDS. QUIET NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. 925 TEMPS OF 12-13C SUPPORT GUID NUMBERS FOR HIGHS. MIXING TO 800 MILLIBARS SUGGESTS BREEZY FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND A LITTLE TIGHTER GRADIENT THROUGH MIDDAY. SURFACE WIND PROGS AND BUFKIT SHOW A NOTICEABLE SLACKENING WITH TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GRADIENT LOOSENS UP A BIT. TONIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM DRY AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AFFECTING NORTHERN WI INTO NORTHERN MN. WHILE WINDS SLACKEN 2 METER TEMPS AND MOS SUPPORT READINGS ABOVE FROSTY LEVELS. FRIDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW SURFACE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP LOOKING TO BE POST FRONTAL. QPF TIED MORE TO 925-850 CONVERGENCE WITH STRONG 850 BAROCLINIC ZONE LAGGING THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE PUT IN POPS CWA WIDE IN THE AFTERNOON. ECMWF/GEM LESS EXCITED ABOUT THIS...BUT WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION COMBINED WITH ELEVATED FRONTAL FORCING...WILL HAVE SOME POPS IN PLACE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. NAM SOUNDINGS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE THAN THE GFS. DECIDED TO GO FOR A NON-DIURNAL LOOK TO THE TEMPS GIVEN DOWNWARD PUSH IN 925 TEMPS AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ALONG WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTHERLY. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...LOW UPPER FLOW STRONGLY CYCLONIC WITH 850 COLD POOL IN PLACE. 850 WINDS 20-25 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH. 1000-850 WINDS FROM THE NAM/ECMWF ACTUALLY BEND NNE BEFORE 00Z. THIS COMBINED WITH POTENTIAL FOR STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW SUGGEST SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP IT IN THE FAR EAST FOR NOW. FROST POTENTIAL AND DEGREE OF INLAND LAKE INFLUENCE A HUGE QUESTION MARK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. ON THE ONE HAND GFS SUGGESTS LESS LAKE INFLUENCE WHILE THE NEW ECMWF AND NAM BOTH SHOW 1000-850 WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH MID TEEN DELTA T VALUES. HAVE KEPT SOME LAKE INFLUENCE GOING DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH MAY END UP BEING QUITE LIMITED TO THE SHORELINE...ESPECIALLY GOING WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. INLAND LOCALES WILL HAVE BETTER FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL WITH LIGHTER WINDS. MAY BE ONE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN NO FROST/FROST/FREEZE FROM EAST TO WEST BASED ON POTENTIALLY WIDE VARIATION IN WIND/CLOUD CONDITIONS. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES. UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST. GEM A COMPROMISE OF THE SLOWER ECMWF AND FASTER GFS. THINK A MORE CLEAR CUT RADIATIONAL NIGHT SETS UP CWA WIDE WITH LITTLE IF ANY LAKE EFFECT CLOUD POTENTIAL AND A GREATER DEPTH TO LIGHTER WIND REGIME. EXPANDED PATCHY FROST ALL THE WAY TO LAKE AS WELL. MONDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM GFS VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH UPPER TROUGH WHILE CANADIAN SLOWS MOVEMENT TO NEARLY MATCH UP WITH ECMWF. EVEN IF THE LATTER 2 ARE CORRECT INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO NOT HAVE A PRECIP IMPACT IN SOUTHERN WI. HOWEVER GUIDANCE TEMPS AFFECTED WITH 925 TEMPS FROM ECMWF ALSMOST HALF OF WHAT THE GFS IS IMPLYING. FOR NOW WENT WITH A A BLEND ON TEMPS. && .AVIATION...DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PD. WL LIKELY BE FEW-SCT CU TODAY WITH LESS CU IN THE AFTN AS EVEN DRIER AIR MIXES DRY ADIABATICALLY TO SFC. ONLY VERY PATCHY GROUND FOG EXPCD LATE TNGT WHICH SHOULD NOT HAVE AN EFFECT ON TAF SITES. && .MARINE...HOISTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TODAY. MAIN PERIOD OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM AROUND 15Z THROUGH 21Z. LOWER LEVELS WL CONT TO DRY WITH DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE SETTING UP LATER THIS MRNG...TAPPING INTO 850-900MB. WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER IN THE LOW LEVELS THAN NAM GUIDANCE AS DEPICTED BY UPSTREAM TAMDAR SOUNDINGS AND ALSO 00Z KMPX SOUNDING. VWP AND PROFILER LOW LEVEL DATA CONTAMINATED FROM PASSING DENSITY DISCONTINUITIES. FREQUENT GUSTS 22 TO 25KTS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME OVER LANDMASS...WHICH WILL PENETRATE INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS. FARTHER OFF THE COAST...STRONGER WINDS WL HAVE MORE DIFFICULT TIME PENETRATING LOW LEVEL INVERSION DUE TO SEA SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 50S. WINDSPEEDS WL DROP QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVE. AVHRR SST IMAGE FROM WED AFTN SHOWING 10 DEGREE C GRADIENT FROM NEARSHORE WATERS TO 45007 BUOY. WOULD THINK SOME UPWELLING WL TAKE PLACE TODAY IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS DUE TO STRONGER NW BREEZES. BACKDOOR CDFNT EXPCD TO SAG THRU FRI AFTN AND EVE...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND WINDS LIKELY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRI NGT INTO SAT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR AVIATION/MARINE...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS62 KILM 300139 AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 939 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING HISTORIC FLOODING RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP PERFECTLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... AS OF 9 PM WEDNESDAY...AN EPIC AND HISTORIC FLOODING EVENT IS ONGOING ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION. RAINFALL RECORDS THAT WERE SET DURING 1999'S HURRICANE FLOYD...A ONCE IN 500 YEAR STORM...ARE GOING TO BE THREATENED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A TREMENDOUS STREAM OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLAM ONSHORE. REPORTS OF ROAD CLOSURES ARE PILING UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED TONIGHT. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NORTH ALABAMA IS DIRECTING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. POES TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONFIRMS MODEL PROJECTIONS OF PW'S IN THE 2.5 INCH RANGE. A SURFACE FRONT STALLED JUST OFF THE COAST IS ENHANCING LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...INCREASING PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WILL NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT A NEW BAROCLINIC LOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AND WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY...AND SHOULD DRAG THE SURFACE FRONT BACK INTO THE CAPE FEAR COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS BURGAW... WILMINGTON...BOLIVIA...AND ELIZABETHTOWN WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING STORM TOTALS AT WILMINGTON TO AT LEAST 21-22 INCHES AND MAY ECLIPSE THE 3 AND 4 DAY HURRICANE FLOYD TOTAL THAT IS THE RAINFALL EVENT OF RECORD FOR THIS AREA. FARTHER INLAND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE INTO COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOOD ONSHORE WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS. 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES NEAR 250 M2/S2 COUPLED WITH CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG COULD CREATE A RISK FOR TORNADOES MUCH LIKE ONE WOULD SEE IN A LANDFALLING TROPICAL SYSTEM. REGARDLESS...925 MB WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS WILL GIVE ANY STRONG CONVECTION THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SYNOPTIC SURFACE WINDS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BEACHES. A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...ENDING THE HEAVY RAINFALL. HEAVY RAIN MAY PERSIST ALONG THE NC COAST THROUGH MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. AT THE COAST...PARTICULARLY THE NC COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING ONSHORE. TEMPS COULD RISE AS HIGH AS 76-77 DEGREES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR BY 3-4 AM...WITH A SCREAMING SOUTHEAST WIND. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...ONE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PULLING N OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. BEHIND THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL GET PULLED ACROSS THE AREA AND WE DO EXPECT THE RAIN TO END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AFTER SUNRISE WILL BE IN THE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH BALLPARK. RESIDUAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THU. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE DROPPING FROM JUST OVER 2 INCHES THU...TO LESS THAN AN INCH ON FRI. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF NICOLE...MOVES N AND WELL OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS FRI AND FRI NIGHT...EVEN DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN A HALF INCH BY SAT MORNING. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA AS WELL. MINIMUMS WILL DROP WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S FRI NIGHT WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND BY DAYBREAK SAT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COOLER DRIER HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING INTO THE REGION. THE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE FALL LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS RANGING BETWEEN 50 AND 56 DEGREES. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST WILL BE LATE MONDAY AS A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST AND PASSES TO OUR NORTH. IF THE LOW APPROACHES THE COAST CLOSER THAN FORECAST THEN WE MAY HAVE TO INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION LATER. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 00Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF IFR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS VALID PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN. CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON THURSDAY DUE TO DECREASING RAINFALL AND SLOWLY RISING CIGS. WITH SUCH A BUSY NIGHT...AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY ATTM...WILL FOCUS PRIMARILY ON NEXT 12 HOURS. CUTOFF UPPER LOW WELL WEST OF THE AREA IS TAPPING CARIBBEAN MOISTURE...AND THIS CONVEYOR IS DIRECTING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS ALL OF THE TERMINALS. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS DEPICTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE AND ENHANCE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CREATE CONTINUED IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT ALL TERMINALS. AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...HAVE PREDOMINATE IFR WITH TEMPO IMPROVEMENTS. WITH THE COLUMN FULLY SATURATED...AND MORE RAIN CONTINUALLY MOVING INTO THE COAST...BELIEVE BOTH IFR VSBYS AND CIGS WILL BE THE RULE. SOME LIFR IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AS WELL. THE INLAND TERMINALS...WHICH ARE FURTHER FROM MOISTURE CONVEYOR AND SURFACE BOUNDARY...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPO IFR VSBYS BUT PREDOMINATE IFR CIGS AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE. AS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES UP THE COAST...SURFACE PG WILL TIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY CREATING GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KTS SEEM LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT. INLAND TERMINALS WILL ALSO SEE GUSTS TO 20 KTS. GUIDANCE DIVERGES ON SOLUTIONS FOR THURSDAY. CONTINUED MVFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN...BUT THEN OPTIMISTICALLY IMPROVE CIGS AND VSBYS TO VFR BY THE END OF THIS VALID PERIOD. IF MOISTURE HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE DRYING THE COLUMN SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY EVE SO HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THAT AT LEAST PARTIALLY BY IMPROVING CIGS SLOWLY. WITH A VERY BUSY AND POOR AVIATION NIGHT AHEAD...WILL FOCUS MORE ON IMPROVEMENTS WITH LATER UPDATES. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE FRI/SAT. VFR SUN/MON. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 9 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ALONG A NEARLY STALLED FRONT ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST THIS EVENING. THIS LOW...NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE...WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFTS BACK TOWARD THE COAST AND WIND DIRECTIONS BECOME SOUTHEAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR AND COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 40-45 KNOTS EVEN OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 13-14 FT WITHIN 20 MILES OF SHORE...HIGHEST NEAR AND NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. WINDS ARE JUST NOW REALLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS AND WE EXPECT TO SEE SEA HEIGHTS INCREASE TREMENDOUSLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...GALE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THEN AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS N OF THE AREA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND WITH THAT THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW GALE CRITERIA DURING THU AFTERNOON. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING UP THE COAST THU NIGHT AND FRI...BUT THIS TIME FURTHER OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AND MAY BRIEFLY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE FRI MORNING. SEAS WILL PEAK THU MORNING...SUBSIDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR 6 FT FRI AND FRI NIGHT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD AND WILL BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONT LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS MAY REACH 25 KNOTS MONDAY AS A THE DEVELOPING LOW TRAVERSES THE FRONTAL. SEAS ARE EXPECT TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FEET NEAR SHORE TO 4 TO 5 FEET 20 MILES OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND AND THEY WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE TO OVER 6 FEET ON MONDAY. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BREAKERS OF 7 TO 10 FEET OVERNIGHT AND THU. THESE BREAKERS ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE OVERNIGHT AND THU FOR THE BEACHES OF NEW HANOVER...PENDER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTIES. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU. THE COMBINATION OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST AND HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT TIDAL DEPARTURES. WATER LEVELS SHOULD REACH THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE WHICH IS AT 1230A AND 1P THU. THE LOWEST OF THESE HIGH TIDES IS THE ONE OVERNIGHT. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...HEAVY RAIN AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WILL PREVENT WATER FROM DRAINING AND THIS WILL LEAD TO WATER LEVELS REMAINING NEAR THEIR PEAK FOR A LONGER DURATION. AT THIS TIME...DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON LOOKS MOST VULNERABLE FOR FLOODING ALONG THE CAPE FEAR DUE TO TIDAL INFLUENCES LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. THE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON GAGE SHOULD BE NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 6.25 FT. THIS REPRESENTS THE UPPER LIMITS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...BUT FALLS JUST SHORT OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. UP TO A FOOT OF WATER IS POSSIBLE ON WATER STREET. WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR ACTION STAGE. OTHERWISE...COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH WATER LEVELS WILL BE HIGH. && .CLIMATE... AS OF 930 PM...EXTRAORDINARY RECENT RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CAUSING LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HERE IS HOW WILMINGTON`S RECENT RAINFALL FITS INTO THE HISTORIC CLIMATE RECORD. OBSERVED TOTALS... SUNDAY SEP 26 0.59 INCHES MONDAY SEP 27 10.33 INCHES TUESDAY SEP 28 1.96 INCHES WEDNESDAY SEP 29 5.81 INCHES - AS OF 930 PM... 1-DAY ALL-TIME RECORDS... #1 13.38 INCHES 9/15/1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) #2 10.33 INCHES 9/27/2010 (MONDAY'S EVENT) #3 9.56 INCHES 8/31/2006 (TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO) #4 9.52 INCHES 9/29/1938 #5 8.04 INCHES 8/18/1879 ("GREAT BEAUFORT HURRICANE") 2-DAY ALL-TIME RECORDS... #1 17.71 INCHES 9/15 & 9/16 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) #2 14.73 INCHES 9/14 & 9/15 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) #3 12.29 INCHES 9/27 & 9/28 2010 (MONDAY/TUESDAY'S EVENT) #4 11.87 INCHES 10/7 & 10/8 2005 (TROPICAL STORM TAMMY) #5 11.54 INCHES 7/7 & 7/8 1950 3-DAY ALL-TIME RECORDS... #1 19.06 INCHES 9/14 - 9/16 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) #2 18.10 INCHES 9/27 - 9/29 2010 (ONGOING EVENT THROUGH 930 PM...) #3 17.71 INCHES 9/15 - 9/17 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) #4 14.73 INCHES 9/13 - 9/15 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) #5 13.44 INCHES 9/11 - 9/13 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) 4-DAY ALL-TIME RECORDS... #1 19.06 INCHES 9/14 - 9/17 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) #1 19.06 INCHES 9/13 - 9/16 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) #3 18.69 INCHES 9/26 - 9/29 2010 (ONGOING EVENT THROUGH 930 PM...) #4 17.71 INCHES 9/15 - 9/18 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) #5 14.73 INCHES 9/12 - 9/15 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) 5-DAY ALL-TIME RECORDS... #1 19.06 INCHES 9/14 - 9/18 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) #1 19.06 INCHES 9/13 - 9/17 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) #1 19.06 INCHES 9/12 - 9/16 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) #4 18.69 INCHES 9/26 - 9/29 2010 (ONGOING EVENT THROUGH 930 PM...) #5 17.71 INCHES 9/15 - 9/19 1999 (HURRICANE FLOYD) SEPTEMBER MONTHLY RAINFALL RECORDS... #1 23.41 INCHES 1999 (HURRICANES DENNIS & FLOYD) #2 20.10 INCHES 1877 ("HURRICANE FOUR") #3 18.94 INCHES 1984 (HURRICANE DIANA) #4 18.87 INCHES 2010 (ONGOING EVENT THROUGH 930 PM...) #5 16.93 INCHES 1924 ("HURRICANE FIVE" AND "TROP STORM EIGHT") && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR SCZ017-023- 024-032>034-039-046. WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ034. NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NCZ087-096- 097-099>101. HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ097- 100-101. WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ097-100-101. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ101. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SHK NEAR TERM...TRA SHORT TERM...RJD LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...JDW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD CLIMATE...TRA  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 130819 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 319 AM CDT MON SEP 13 2010 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS MAINLY ON MIDWEEK SYSTEM. TODAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH BENIGN NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES WITH SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES DRAWAING CLOSER FROM MINNESOTA AND IOWA. OVERALL NEUTRAL ADVECTION. COLUMN VERY DRY. 925 TEMPS SUPPORT THE WARMER MAV MOS NUMBERS. TONIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP DEVELOPING WELL WEST OF OUR AREA. TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM EXPECTING THE DRY LOOK TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE. WAA PRECIP GETS GOING TO OUR WEST. ALL MODELS FOCUS THIS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS IOWA. MODELS HAVE TRENDED QPF INTO THE SW CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST FRINGE OF THIS COMPLEX. RIGHT REAR QUADRANT UPPER DIVERGENCE AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILTY SUGGESTS SOME MINOR THUNDER POTENTIAL. GFS QPF MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A COUPLE TENTHS INTO THE FAR SW CWA. HOWEVER GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH RESPECT TO COLUMN MOISTURE. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST WITH A BUFFER OF SLIGHT AROUND THAT. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM BULK OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND OMEGA INDUCED FROM DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WILL START BRINGING CHANCE POPS INTO THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS FORCING WITH UPPER WAVE COMES ACROSS THE AREA. FAIRLY STRONG 700 OMEGA PEAKS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FOCUSES IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING. 00Z NAM HAS THE FURTHEST SOUTH POSITION OF THE LOW NEAR KSTL WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z CANADIAN HAVE THE LOW NEAR KMPX. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN WITH A TREND SOUTHWARD WITH A LOW TRACK THAT LOOKS VERY MUCH LIKE THE GFS...NEAR KORD AT 12Z THURSDAY. WILL HAVE PRECIP WINDING DOWN AS DAY WEARS ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW NEARLY ZONAL FLOW THOUGH INFLUENCE OF CANADAIN UPPER TROUGH DROPS AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHERN WI. THIS MAY KEEP FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON A SLOWER PACE. MODELS SUGGEST FRONTAL PRECIP LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ECMWF TAKING ON A FAIRLY ROBUST SOLUTION. AT THE MOMENT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DRY CONSENSUS MOS FOR THE DAY PERIOD AND BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...EXPC PATCHY AC TO THIN WITH INCRD NW DRIER FLOW EARLY THIS MRNG. FEW-SCT CU MAY DEVELOP THIS MRNG BEFORE DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN ON GUSTY NW WINDS INTO THE LOWER LEVELS...HELPING TO THIN ANY CU. OTRW MID-HIGH CLOUDS WL INCREASE TNGT AHEAD OF VIGOROUS S/W PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST. STILL QUESTIONS ON EXTENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACRS SRN WI ON TUE. && .MARINE...GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING OVER INLAND AREAS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS INTO NEARSHORE AREAS...WHILE AREAS TOWARD THE OPEN WATER MORE PROTECTED BY LOW LEVEL STABILITY AND COOLER SST TEMPS. LIKELY TO BE A FEW GUSTS TO 25KTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF NORTH POINT LIGHT BUT AT THIS POINT...DID NOT THINK GUSTS WOULD BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. BEAUTIFUL AVHRR IMAGE FROM 19Z/12 SHOWED NEARSHORE SST TEMPS AS LOW AS THE LOW 50S OFF THE PORT WASHINGTON AND SHEBOYGAN COASTS...WITH SST WARMING TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT MID LAKE. NEXT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE WED NGT AND THU AS SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR AVIATION/MARINE...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 122027 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 327 PM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. .TONIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. POCKET OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN NORTHEAST IOWA MARKING VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT WILL MOVE ALONG THE WISCONSIN/ILLINOIS BORDER BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z MONDAY. SOME MODELS CARRYING LIGHT QPF INTO FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH INTERACTION OF WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG TROUGH/WIND SHIFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION REFLECTED IN ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 305K SURFACE. CAPE AROUND 400 J/KG ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ON THE ORDER OF 100MB...HIGH BASES TO THE CLOUDS AND LACK OF RADAR RETURNS OR GROUND REPORTS DEPTH OF DRY AIR FROM SURFACE TO 10K FT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THIS EVENING. NEUTRAL TO WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN CONFLUENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP MONDAY DRY. MIXING UP TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND +9C IN THE NORTH AND +11C SOUTH WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S NORTH...WITH MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTH. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. NEXT SHORT WAVE BRINGS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION REACHES WESTERN CWA BY 12Z TUESDAY...THEN MOVES SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. DRY EASTERLY FEED AROUND SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIMIT SHOWERS TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE BEST LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAX. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE DROP MONDAY NIGHT...AND AMOUNT OF WARMING ON TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. AGAIN WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND TUESDAY WAVE LIMITING MIXING UP TO 925MB TEMPS OF 12C TO 13C SO MID 60S HIGHS REASONABLE. EAST WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY INCREASE IN TIGHTENING GRADIENT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW. UPPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS. LITTLE TO NO ELEVATED CAPE...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 6C OR LESS...BUT WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER TO ACKNOWLEDGE DYNAMIC LIFT AND POSSIBLE STEEPER LAPSE RATES WITH VORTICITY MAX PASSING OVER REGION. WILL KEEP A CHANCE IN FOR THURSDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER MOVEMENT ON ECMWF. MODELS AGREE THAT A 850-700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SET UP OVER SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL FOR THE THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS ABOUT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND VORTEX CROSSING ONTARIO...AND TIMING OF BACKED FLOW OVER NEARLY STATIONARY BAROCLINIC ZONE IN RESPONSE TO EACH WAVE. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST...AND THEN CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR STALLED BOUNDARY BEING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF A SUBTLE LOW PRES TROUGH. THESE CLOUDS WOULD CROSS THE CWA FROM 22Z TO 02Z. HOWEVER...DOUBTING THAT ANY SHOWER/TSTORMS WILL COME OUT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE MORNING. A FEW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY OUT OF THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. && .MARINE...LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE BEHIND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LATER TNGT INTO MON. HOWEVER...THE ADVECTION WILL NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUNCH THROUGH THE STABLE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DUE TO COLDER NEARSHORE WATERS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO SHORE. WITH SEA SFC TEMPS JUST BEYOND 5NM IN THE WARMER LOW TO MID 60S PER RECENT AVHRR/MODIS IMAGERY...GUSTS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS MON AFTN TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...09 AVIATION/MARINE...13  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 120825 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 325 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON SHOWER CHANCE TONIGHT THEN HANDLING MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH MIDWEEK SYSTEM. TODAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH WATER VAPOR/RUC SHOW STRONG NW UPPER FLOW WITH MAIN VORTICITY ACTION MOVING SE FROM CANADA TO THE U.P. BY 00Z MONDAY. 850 WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. 925 TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 20C DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH FULL SUN WILL LEAN TOWARDS WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. TONIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE AREA WITH NAM SHOWING HIGHER CAPE DUE TO INFLATED PROGGD SURFACE DEW POINTS. NAM ALSO SHOWING A BETTER SURGE OF 850 DEW POINTS REACHING INTO SOUTHERN WI WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY OF 850 THERMAL RIDGE. GFS/ECWMF HAVE BETTER MOISTURE AND THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF WI. WILL GO WITH VERY SMALL POPS NEAR THE ILLINOIS BORDER THIS EVENING. MONDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM BENIGN NW UPPER FLOW CONTINUES WITH SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES DRAWAING CLOSER FROM MINNESOTA AND IOWA. OVERALL NEUTRAL ADVECTION. TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM EXPECTING THE DRY LOOK TO PERSIST WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE. WAA PRECIP GETS GOING TO OUR WEST. ALL MODELS FOCUS THIS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS IOWA. NAM/ECMWF MOST AGGRESSIVE ON ADVANCING THIS INTO EXTREME SW WI BY 00Z WEDNESDAY BUT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE DRIER LOOK OF THE GFS/CANADIAN. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM 00Z ECMWF HAS PULLED BACK SLIGHTLY ON EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF QPF ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW FROM THE PLAINS. ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLY QUICKER WITH BRINGING IN THE ISENTROPIC INDUCED PRECIP. THERE ARE ALSO FURTHER EAST WITH LOW CENTER. GFS QUITE A BIT SLOWER. CANADIAN A COMPRMISE SOLUTION. WILL NEED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE VARYING SOLUTIONS. GREATEST CONSENSUS FOR PRECIP COMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS THE GFS CATCHES UP THE ECMWF SOLUTION. CONSISTENCY THERE TOO. WILL STOP JUST SHORT OF GOING LIKELY FOR THIS TIME FRAME. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IF ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES NOT GREAT...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF GRIDS WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOW PASSES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY WITH PRECIP LINGERING. MORE SOUTHERN POSITION OF ECMWF LOW CENTER WOULD FAVOR A LINGERING DEFORMATION ZONE. SO HIGHEST POPS THURSDAY MORNING THEN GRADUALLY TRIMMING THEM INTO THURSDAY EVENING. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PD. FEW-SCT CU THIS AFTN. THINKING NAM OVERDOING AMOUNT OF LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN LATER THIS EVE ASSOCD WITH BRIEF BURST OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. MAY BE PD OF MID LEVEL CLDS ASSOCD WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF WK LOW PRES TROF BUT THINKING BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLD -SHRA WL BE SOUTH OF TAF SITES. && .MARINE...W-SW SFC WNDS GUSTING TO 13 TO 18KTS THIS AFTN SHOULD BE STRONG ENUF TO PREVENT LAKE BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING.. .WITH ABOUT 4MB ISOBAR SPACING ORIENTATED PERPENDICULAR TO THE SHORE FROM IL/WI BORDER TO GRB. WEAK SFC TROF PUSHES ACRS LAKE MI THIS EVE AS SFC WNDS VEER TO NW. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION INCRS BEHIND THIS TROF LATER TNGT INTO MON...HWVR ADVECTION NOT STRONG ENUF TO PUNCH THRU STABLE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DUE TO COLDER NEARSHORE WATERS... ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO SHORE. WITH SST TEMPS JUST BEYOND 5NM IN THE WARMER LOW TO MID 60S PER RECENT AVHRR/MODIS IMAGERY...GUSTS WL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS MON AFTN TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR AVIATION/MARINE...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 110820 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 320 AM CDT SAT SEP 11 2010 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH TODAY THEN ASSESSING MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR WEDNESDAY. TODAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM STRONG UPPER JET MAX COMBINED WITH DEEPER INSTABILITY DRIVING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION DRIVING SHOWERS FROM NE IA INTO WI. 700-300 MILLIBAR QG FORCING/700 VERTICAL MOTION PEAKS THIS MORNING WITH A DRIER MID LEVEL COMING IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS AND ONGOING TRENDS HAVE HIGHEST POPS EARLY. LOW LEVELS SLOWER TO SCOUR OUT PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. TONIGHT- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE/MID LEVEL RIDGING WORK ACROSS THE AREA. MORE EFFICIENT DRYING OF LOW LEVELS WITH ALL GUIDANCE AND EXPECTED CLOUD TRENDS SUPPORTING GOING WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER. SUNDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES SHIFT EAST FAIRLY QUICK AND WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE TROUGH DROPS INTO NORTHERN WI. STRONG NW UPPER JET ALSO FAVORS NORTHERN WI WITH DIVERGENCE FIELD CLOSER TO 500 MILLIBAR VORT TRACK. AS WEAK BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING MONDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED FROM MINNESOTA THROUGH WESTERN WISCONSIN INTO ILLINOIS. SWIFT NW UPPER FLOW BUT NOT MUCH TO LATCH ONTO WITH RESPECT TO ANY APPRECIABLE WAVE. AIRMASS QUITE DRY AS WELL. TUESDAY- CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY WET WHILE THE GFS HAS HELD FIRM WITH THE DRY LOOK. HOWEVER ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED COMPLETELY DRY AFTER WAITING TO SEE THE 00Z RUN. CANADIAN MODEL ON BOARD FOR THE DRY LOOK. WILL REMOVE THE POPS. WEDNESDAY- CONFIDENCE...LOW CANADIAN/ECMWF SHOW A FAIRLY DECENT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS. GFS SHOWING A FLATTER FLOW WITH VORT BULLSYSES WITHIN THE FLOW. SO LEANING TOWARDS THE MORE BELIEVABLE REPRESENTATION OF THE ECMWF/CANADIAN AT THIS POINT. STILL...TIMING ISSUES AT THE OUTSET...THOUGH CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS CONVERGES TOWARDS A WETTER LOOK LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .AVIATION...SCT TO NMRS SHRA EXPCD THIS MRNG AHEAD OF SFC BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF. DEEPENING RH AHEAD OF SFC FRONT AND WINDS TURNING MORE SLY IN THE LOW LEVELS PULLING LARGE AREA OF MVFR STRATUS NWD TOWARD SRN WI. HENCE THINKING CIGS WL LWR TO MVFR DRNG THE MRNG...LINGERING INTO THE AFTN IN THE ERN TAF SITES BEFORE LIFTING BY EARLY EVE. MAY BE AN ISOLD TSTM BUT WL HOLD OUT OF TAF FOR NOW. && .MARINE...LATEST AVHRR SST CONTINUE TO SHOW COOLER WATERS IN THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS...WHILE WARMER SST TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S JUST BEYOND 5NM. THESE MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED GUSTIER WINDS TO REACH SURFACE AT MID-LAKE WHERE 45007 BUOY WIND GUSTS NOW IN THE MID 20S WITH 5FT WAVES. HENCE WINDIER CONDITONS EXPCD FOR A TIME TOWARD MID-LAKE WITH COOLER WATERS PREVENTING HIGHER GUSTS AT THE SHORE. PRES GRADIENT LOOSENS LATER THIS MRNG AS SFC BOUNDARY APPROACHES LAKE MI. SW WNDS WL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVY LEVELS AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WL MOV ACRS LAKE MI SUN NGT. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ643>646. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...COLLAR AVIATION/MARINE...MBK  ---------------------------------------------------------------------- FXUS63 KMKX 250728 AFDMKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 228 AM CDT WED AUG 25 2010 .SHORT TERM... TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE TODAY. WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR...NOT EXPECTING MUCH THAN A FEW AFTERNOON CU WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT. SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY TODAY WITH 925 MB TEMPS OF 15-16C HOLDING HIGH TEMPS BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...WILL KEEP FOG LIMITED MAINLY TO RIVER VALLEYS AWAY FROM THE LAKE. LEANED TOWARD THE MET FOR LOW TEMPS...AS MAV NUMBERS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING AMOUNT OF COOLING DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS. ANOTHER GREAT DAY IN STORE THURSDAY...AS SFC HIGH REMAINS OVERHEAD...WHILE UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TODAY IN THE EAST DUE TO EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE...AND A BIT WARMER IN THE WEST WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS. KEPT AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS THURSDAY NIGHT..WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD SLIDE EAST ON FRIDAY...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. WITH INCREASED HEIGHTS AND A RETURN TO SRLY FLOW ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE HIGH...SHOULD SEE A GOOD JUMP IN HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY...CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S. .LONG TERM... SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR EXTENDED...KEEPING UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES. PERSISTENT SRLY FLOW AND HIGH HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO WARM...AS WELL AS DEWPOINTS TO CREEP BACK UP. WENT HIGHER THAN MOST GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND...AS MODEL 925 MB TEMPS SUGGEST HIGHS NEAR 90 ON SUNDAY. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE...AS WAVES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL RIDE UP OVER STUBBORN RIDGE. && .AVIATION... .AVIATION...SCT VFR CU EXPCD LATER THIS MRNG AND AFTN AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO SRN WI. MAY BE BRIEFLY BKN BUT TOO MUCH DRY AIR ALOFT TO ENTRAIN FOR CIGS TO LAST FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME. DRY ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP LATER THIS MRNG AS WELL WHICH WILL ALLOW NW GUSTS TO REACH 20 KNOTS FOR A TIME. WIND SPEEDS WL SETTLE TO BLO 10KTS THIS EVE AS SHALLOW INVERSION DVLPS. && .MARINE...LATEST MODIS AND AVHRR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW NEARSHORE SST IN THE 66 TO 71 DEGREE RANGE...WITH MID 70S AT MID-LAKE. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION RESULTING IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WL ALLOW NW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTN. A FEW GUSTS INTO THE 20 TO 25KT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN. WINDS VEER TO THE NORTH TNGT WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COOL AIR ADVECTION CLIPPING LOWER LAKE MI. GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS MAY CONTINUE TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS WITH LIGHTER WINDS AT THE SHORE. WIND SPEEDS SETTLE DOWN ON THU AS SFC HIGH PRES APPROACHES. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...DDV/07 AVIATION/MARINE...MBK/11